Michael Alexander - Betting Expert

Rating: 2 Units

Betting Trends: Seattle is 36-23 SU (61.0%) as home favorites, and Texas is 16-31 SU (34.0%) as road underdogs this season. Gilbert will outlast Scherzer today, giving the home team enough of a pitching advantage to outlast the Rangers. The Mariners' starter has been consistently reliable this season, and the advanced stats don't indicate he's been lucky. His second-half ERA is higher than the first-half, but his WHIP is nearly identical, and he's still holding opponents to a .202 BA. He doesn't get away with leaving a lot of runners on base (67.6 LOB%), and his hard-hit percentage is 32.9%. The Rangers rank 25th in wOBA (.290) and 23rd in wRC+ (90) in the last 30 days and haven't scored a run against Gilbert so far this season.

Rating: 2 Units

The two starters, Bellozo and Cobrin, pitch to contact and have been hampered by the long ball this season. Bellozo has led up ten home runs in just over 50 innings this season, while Corbin has given up 23, including three in his last start. The Nationals have won three of Corbin's last five starts, and the veteran lefty has done a good job keeping his team in games, particularly at home. Despite being just 5-13 on the season overall, Corbin is 3-5 at home this year, and his ERA is nearly a run less at home. Bellozo has pitched well, but the Marlins are a dismal 27-45 on the road this season heading into Friday night. The Nationals have played better at home, winning 33 and losing 39. Look for the Nationals to outlast the Marlins this afternoon.

Rating: 2 Units

How do you lay points on the road with a Colorado team that is 2-16 SU and 5-13 ATS in its last eighteen FBS away games? At least the Rams are 11-4-1 ATS as non-conference home dogs of late, and despite failing to beat the Buffaloes in six straight meetings, they’ve cashed in all three series appearances in Fort Collins. As a result, we have no problem fading the most overrated Power Four team in the land with another redheaded stepchild.

Rating: 2 Units

Oregon State is a rude host, going 4-0 ATS in the last four games of this series played in the Beaver Dam. The Beavers are 6-1 ATS with single revenge and 5-0 ATS as a game three dog. Consider that playing on any undefeated home dog if they were a bowl team last season and they are facing an opponent that allows 14 or more PPG is 24-7-1 ATS.

Rating: 3 Units

The Gamecocks crushed the Wildcats in Kentucky last week and are 5-1 in recent third games and 4-1 ATS in the last five as SEC home dogs. The ‘Cocks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten conference home games. The Bengal Tigers are a nice 5-1 ATS in their first conference game but 3-7 as a conference road favorite of 10 or fewer points. Kelly is 1-4 ATS in his last five road openers.

SEC Game of the Week

Rating: 4 Units

Georgia checks in with a 2-10 ATS effort before a Week of Rest and a 1-4 ATS mark as SEC road chalk of 14 or more. Coach Smart is 59-14 SU and 42-31 ATS in SEC battles, but he’s only 6-12 ATS as a conference favorite of 23 or more points. He is also 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 24 or more points when coming off a win of 35 or more points and with Alabama on deck (in two weeks). Additionally, Kentucky is 8-2 ATS as a dog of 17 or more points when seeking revenge under Mark Stoops, including 5-0 ATS versus foes coming off a win.

CFB Inter-Conference Game of the Month

Rating: 5 Units

Roadrunners are 5-1 ATS in the second of consecutive road trips and also 5-1 ATS as dogs of more than 20 points.  Jeff Traylor is 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, including 10-0 ATS over the last ten games. The Horns are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 non-conference home games but just 1-5 ATS in the first of 3 straight contests in Austin. Texas laid 13.5 points in their previous meeting with UTSA here in 2022. Finally, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian is 3-9-1 ATS in his career when his team is coming off two wins, including 3-7 SU and 0-9-1 ATS when facing .500 or greater opponents.