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*4 Star Play Under* The Loyola Maryland Greyhounds have played at a very slow pace this year. Loyola Maryland is likely to do their best to slow this game down to a halt. Stonehill is a below average paced team. Stonehill also played last night. This is a Stonehill team that has struggled badly to score the last few seasons, and they should do the same again this year.

This is a neutral court game which is helpful too.

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Bradley Braves have typically been a very good defensive team. They were bad on defense last game and I expect them to come out much better on defense here. These are two teams who play around an average pace. Bradley graduated many of their top shooters from outside from last year. San Francisco lost its top couple guys too. Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Coppin State Eagles are an extremely inefficient offense. They struggle badly with turnovers. Coppin State relies on getting to the line to score, and South Alabama has been one of the best teams in the country at defending without fouling. 

South Alabama's zone defense should really bother Coppin State. South Alabama forces teams to hit outside jumpers, and Coppin State has been terrible from 3 point range for the last few seasons. 

A slow pace and an early game at a neutral site too.

Take the under. 

(Free Play on Southern Miss) The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have been tremendous this year. This is basically the old Marshall team from a year ago. They have gone down to Hattiesburg and immediately made this team much better! 

Texas State has disappointed all season. The Bobcats were expected to be better than this, but they keep finding ways to lose games. Defensively, they can't get off the field. They are 110th in third down defense. They are 130th in points per opportunity allowed on defense. Southern Miss is 26th in QBR on offense and Texas State is 126th in QBR allowed. 

Southern Miss has forced the most turnovers of anyone in the country this year, and Texas State is prone to turnovers. I'll lay the short number. Take Southern Miss.

(15-4 in my last 19 plays heading into the weekend. Saturday CFB 7 for $67 Special Offer is up. Big Ten Total of the Year and ACC ATS Game of the Year are two of the main plays up. Join in!) 

*3 Star Play on BYU* The BYU Cougars host the TCU Horned Frogs late Saturday night in Provo. BYU is coming off a blowout loss at the hands of Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are easily the best team in the Big 12. Texas Tech also only gained 4.9 yards per play in that game against BYU. The BYU defense is one of the best units in the Big 12. 

BYU is in a nice bounce back spot here. BYU has a great home field advantage. They are 70-6 straight up in their last 76 games played at 6 pm or later at home. We need them to win by a small margin, but this being down to just a field goal is key.

BYU is 22nd in special teams rating nationally, while TCU is 120th. That could be the difference.

Josh Hoover started the season playing very well, but he has been a turnover machine of late, and BYU has 12 interceptions already this year. They should get one or two more here.

The TCU offensive line has been letting them down. They are 84th in havoc allowed, and BYU is 39th in havoc created.

Take BYU here. 

*3 Star Play North Carolina* The North Carolina Tar Heels defense has been lights out of late. They are top five in the nation in yards per play allowed in their last three games. Wake Forest is bottom three nationally in yards per play on offense in their last three games.

North Carolina is 11th in YPC allowed for the season. The Tar Heels are 14th in points per opportunity allowed, so they have been great in the red zone defensively. Wake Forest is reliant on hitting explosive plays, and the Demon Deacons are only 132nd in points per scoring opportunity on offense.

North Carolina is 52nd in special teams grade and Wake Forest is 86th. North Carolina has a lot more team talent than does Wake Forest, and they are finally rounding into form. Wake Forest won last week despite not scoring on offense, and they were helped by Virginia's Chandler Morris getting injured.

With a total set this low, I'll take the six points.

Take North Carolina. 

*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs defense has been elite this year. They are coming off their worst performance of the season at Hawaii. I expect a big bounce back from them here. San Diego State is allowing just 10.3 points per game at home this year. The Aztecs are 2nd in PPA/pass allowed and 10th in PPA/rush allowed this year.

San Diego State will be up against a backup quarterback for Boise State. The Broncos were held to 7 points by Fresno State at home in their last game. 

Boise State is 13th nationally in success rate allowed.

This is a huge game for both teams in the Mountain West Conference race. I expect both defenses to be ready to go. 

A rare poor weather day in San Diego is expected here. A 90% chance of rain is forecast here, and there is a flood watch for Saturday. There are winds of 12-18 mph expected too. This is a grass surface and it could be in rough shape.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats are 135th out of 136 teams in the country in plays per minute. Northwestern is slowing the game down in a big way. They are 40th in rush rate, so the clock should be moving while they try to run the ball here. 

Michigan is 14th in YPC allowed and 14th in rushing explosiveness allowed. The Wolverines aren't likely to give up many big plays here. Northwestern is a miserable 129th in points per scoring opportunity on offense too, so when they get into scoring position they have struggled to cash in with touchdowns.

Michigan's offense has been inconsistent this year. Michigan will play slowly as well and they are pretty conservative with their play calling. Northwestern is 41st in points per scoring opportunity allowed. They are a solid red zone defense.

The winds here could play a role in Wrigley Field. Sustained winds of 16 mph with gusts to 27 mph are expected. 

Take the under. 

*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles and Ball State Cardinals square off in a MAC battle on Saturday afternoon.

The weather in Muncie Indiana looks very windy for this game. The current blend of three forecasts calls for sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts to 33 mph during this game. That kind of wind can change a game in a big way.

Eastern Michigan's defense isn't good, but they have definitely improved in MAC play. Eastern Michigan has actually seen 5 of 6 MAC games stay below this posted total in regulation.

Ball State has one of the worst offenses in the nation.  Ball State is 133rd in offensive success rate. They are just 118th in explosiveness on offense too. Four of Ball State's five MAC games have finished at 42 combined points or lower.

Games with average winds of 10 mph or more at Ball State are 22-11 to the under in the last 33.

Take the under here. 

No comment

*4 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers defense has played pretty well with Coach Akey as the interim head coach. They held Washington State to 7 points and then held Sam Houston State to just 157 yards (Sam Houston scored 2 special teams TD's in that game). 

Oregon State's offense plays slowly, and they aren't explosive at all. Johnson doesn't throw the ball down the field. They are reliant on Hankerson hammering away to get 4 yards or so on the ground. 

Tulsa is very inefficient on offense. This team hasn't found a good quarterback all season, and they struggle badly in the red zone.

The long term weather forecast calls for rain and heavy winds here on Saturday. I would play the under without that weather, but it is a nice extra bonus.

Take the under. 

*4 Star Play Over* The Coastal Carolina offense started the year horribly, but with Samari Collier this offense has taken off. Collier is a dual threat quarterback who is a very solid runner. The rushing explosiveness in the Chanticleers offense has really made a huge difference. Coastal Carolina has scored 45, 44, and 40 points in their last three games.

Now, Coastal Carolina goes up against one of the worst run defenses in the country. Georgia Southern is 135th out of 136 teams in YPC allowed. They are dead last at 136th in rushing explosiveness allowed. 

Georgia Southern plays at a quick pace. The Eagles are good at converting in the red zone, and they are 40th in rushing success rate and 30th in pass play success rate on offense. Coastal Carolina's defense has allowed 37, 27, and 27 points in their last three games. Coastal is 120th in rushing explosiveness allowed.

The season long numbers for Coastal's offense don't matter anymore, with Collier this is a good offense that is playing quickly.

Take the over. 

(This number has moved a bit during the week- I would still bet this for 4 stars as high as 60 and a 3 star rating above 60. Thank you)