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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson UNDER 58||Top||16-44||Loss||-110||10 h 50 m||Show|
7* Alabama/Clemson *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 58
The Key: Forecasts are calling for rain in Santa Clara and it’s going to be colder than normal. It will likely be a sloppy field, which will benefit the UNDER. Also benefitting the UNDER is that these are two of the best defenses in the country. The Tigers allow just 12.9 PPG and 275 YPG while the Crimson Tide yield only 16.2 PPG and 308 YPG. Neither of these offenses have faced a defense as good as the one they will be facing tonight. Clemson is 9-0 UNDER against good teams who outscore their opponents by 10 or more points per game over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER.
|01-01-19||Texas +12 v. Georgia||Top||28-21||Win||100||8 h 59 m||Show|
7* NCAAF Bowl Game of the Year on Texas +12
The Key: Tom Herman as an underdog is a scary proposition for opponents. Herman is 12-2 ATS as a dog in his head coaching career and even better than that dating back to his time as an assistant at Iowa State and Ohio State with something like a 22-2 ATS record as a dog. Georgia doesn’t want to be here. The Bulldogs wanted to make the four-team playoff and are very disappointed they didn’t. They were the final team left out. Those teams never seem to show up when they were the final team left out, or right on the borderline of making the playoffs. Texas will be able to hang around because of it. Take Texas.
|12-31-18||Northwestern +7 v. Utah||Top||31-20||Win||100||7 h 50 m||Show|
7* Northwestern/Utah NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Northwestern +7
The Key: Northwestern is relishing this opportunity to be playing in the Holiday Bowl. I think Utah is the more disappointed team after scoring just 3 points in a loss to Washington that cost them a trip to the Rose Bowl. Pat Fitzgerald has certainly gotten his team to play well in the underdog role. Underdogs went 11-1-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season. Northwestern pulled off 5 outright upsets in 7 tries as an underdogs this season. And the two losses were to Michigan (by 3) and Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS against teams who win 60% to 75% of their games over the last 2 seasons. Take Northwestern.
|12-29-18||Oklahoma v. Alabama UNDER 79||Top||34-45||Push||0||9 h 46 m||Show|
7* Alabama/Oklahoma *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 79
The Key: Alabama will utilize its running game to keep the Oklahoma offense off the field in this game. And the Alabama defense is way better than anything Oklahoma has seen this season. This should be much lower scoring than the oddsmakers anticipate. Take the UNDER.
|12-29-18||Notre Dame +13.5 v. Clemson||3-30||Loss||-125||5 h 46 m||Show|
6* Notre Dame/Clemson *CA$H COW* on Notre Dame +13.5
The Key: Five times in college football history have two teams gone into bowl games undefeated with one team favored by a touchdown or more. All five times, the underdog won the game outright. I think Notre Dame is way better than it is getting credit for. Take Notre Dame.
|12-28-18||Auburn v. Purdue +3.5||63-14||Loss||-102||3 h 34 m||Show|
6* Auburn/Purdue Music City Bowl *CA$H COW* on Purdue +3.5
The Key: Purdue battled back from an 0-3 start this season to get to 6-6 and a bowl. They pulled off upsets over Boston College and Ohio State along the way, and they needed to win at Indiana in their season finale to get their 6th win. The Boilermakers certainly want to be here. And they are better than their 6-6 record would suggest as they lost 4 games by 4 points or less this year. They were really close to being a 10-2 team. Auburn does not want to be here. They lost to Alabama 21-52 in the Iron Bowl to punctuate what has been a very disappointing 7-5 season. They only beat 2 bowl teams all season in Washington and Texas A&M, which were both close wins that could have gone either way. Purdue is 9-1 ATS vs. good passing teams with a 58% completion percentage or better over the last 2 seasons. The Boilermakers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games. The Tigers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. Take Purdue.
|12-22-18||Buffalo v. Troy||32-42||Loss||-110||6 h 7 m||Show|
6* Buffalo/Troy NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Buffalo PK
The Key: Buffalo is far and away the best team in the MAC. And because they blew a 19-point second half lead against NIU and lost 29-30 in the MAC Championship, they’ll be extra hungry to want to erase that sour taste. Look for them to beat Troy here, which is deflated following its loss to Appalachian State in the season finale that cost them a trip to the Sun Belt title game. Buffalo has played the tougher schedule and has put up better numbers than Troy, and thus are the better team. The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Trojans are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games against MAC teams. Take Buffalo.
|12-19-18||Ohio v. San Diego State +3||Top||27-0||Loss||-115||5 h 19 m||Show|
7* Ohio/San Diego State *HEAVY HITTER* on San Diego State +3
The Key: Wrong team favored here. Ohio getting too much respect for their finish to the season, while SDSU getting killed by oddsmakers for their 0-3 finish to the season. The Aztecs weren’t motivated at all over their final 3 games and now will be motivated to finish off their season with a win. The Bobcats were motivated down the stretch trying to win the MAC. The MAC is just 6-24 SU in bowl games over the last 6 years. And after an 0-2 start to this bowl season, the MAC is now 1-12 SU over the last 3 seasons in bowl games. The Aztecs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as underdogs, which includes outright upsets over Boise State and Arizona State this season. Take San Diego State.
|12-15-18||Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 53.5||Top||20-31||Win||100||6 h 23 m||Show|
7* December Bowl Total of the Year on ASU/Fresno State UNDER 53.5
The Key: Two teams with great defenses square off in the Las Vegas Bowl Saturday. Fresno State has been elite defensively, giving up only 13.7 PPG on the season. Arizona State allows 25.1 PPG. And these are two mediocre offenses. But my favorite thing about these offenses is that they don’t turn the football overall. Fresno State has committed just 11 turnovers in 13 games, while ASU has committed only 8 turnovers in 12 games. Turnovers usually create easy points, and since both teams won’t be turning it over, I think that greatly benefits the UNDER. ASU’s offense suffered a big blow when it was announced leading receiver N’Keal Harry would skip the bowl game to get ready for the NFL Draft. He may be the best receiver in the Pac-12, catching 73 balls for 1,088 yards and 9 touchdowns this season. The UNDER is 22-8 in Bulldogs last 30 games overall. The UNDER is 6-0 in Bulldogs last 6 games this season with a total of 49.5 to 56 points. Take the UNDER.
|12-01-18||Fresno State v. Boise State UNDER 53||19-16||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
6* Fresno/Boise MWC *CA$H COW* on UNDER 53
The Key: This will be the 4th meeting between Fresno State and Boise State in the last 2 seasons. It will be the 2nd consecutive year that they’ve played in the regular season and then also in the MWC Championship Game. To say they are familiar with one another would be an understatement. And that clearly favors the UNDER. They have combined for 45, 31 and 41 points in their first 3 meetings, and now we have a total of 53 here. That’s 14 points more than the 39 points they have averaged in their 3 previous meetings. Fresno is 9-0 UNDER off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Fresno is 6-0 UNDER in road games this season. The UNDER is 19-7 in Bulldogs last 26 home games. The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings at Boise State. Take the UNDER.
|12-01-18||Clemson v. Pittsburgh +28||42-10||Loss||-115||9 h 51 m||Show|
6* Clemson/Pitt ACC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +28
The Key: The Pitt Panthers pulled the 43-42 upset over Clemson back in 2016 as 21.5-point underdogs. They know what it takes to hang with this team. And they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, so oddsmakers have failed to give them the respect they deserve here down the stretch. It’s happening again here Saturday as they are 28-point underdogs to the Tigers. Dano Swinney is only 3-12 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points as the coach of Clemson. This is the spot that the Tigers have failed to cover time and time again when the expectations are too high. Take Pittsburgh.
|12-01-18||Georgia +12 v. Alabama||Top||28-35||Win||100||5 h 52 m||Show|
7* Alabama/Georgia SEC Game of the Year on Georgia +12
The Key: Georgia wants to avenge its 26-23 (OT) loss to Alabama in the championship game last year. This is the opportunity they’ve waited a year for, and I expect them to take advantage. They are the team best equipped to beat Alabama in the country. They have an elite defense and an experienced offense with yet another elite running game, plus Jake Fromm calling the shots at quarterback. Bets on neutral field underdogs who average 200 or more rushing yards per game after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 4 straight games are 24-4 ATS since 1992. Take Georgia.
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois v. Buffalo -3||Top||30-29||Loss||-108||5 h 56 m||Show|
7* NIU/Buffalo NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Buffalo -3
The Key: I believe Buffalo to be the better of these two teams, and I don’t really even think it’s close. While NIU has the better defense, they don’t have the offense that can keep up with Buffalo. The Bulls score 35.2 PPG this season behind a balanced attack with 200 rushing yards and 219 passing yards per game. And they have a pretty good defense of their own giving up 24.2 PPG. NIU averages a putrid 19.9 PPG and 318 YPG. The Huskies give up 20.9 PPG, so they have a good defense, but they are actually getting outscored and outgained on the season. They were fortunate to make the MAC Championship to say the least as the MAC West was down this season. The Huskies are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games as a neutral field underdog. Buffalo is 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS against MAC opponents this season. They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games dating back to last season. The Bulls are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Take Buffalo.
|11-24-18||South Carolina +26.5 v. Clemson||Top||35-56||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
7* South Carolina/Clemson ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on South Carolina +26.5
The Key: Clemson will make the four-team playoff no matter what happens in this game against South Carolina as long as they beat Pitt next week in the ACC Championship. The Tigers are getting too much love now after going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. They did not cover as 29.5-point favorites against Duke last week in a 29-point win. And now they are 26.5-point favorites against South Carolina, a team that is much better than Duke. The Gamecocks have their best offense of the Will Muschamp era this season as they are scoring 32.8 PPG. And they still have a solid defense. They have what it takes to stay within 4 touchdowns of the Tigers. The Gamecocks are 7-0 ATS in road games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. South Carolina is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 road games overall. The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Take South Carolina.
|11-24-18||Georgia Southern -10.5 v. Georgia State||35-14||Win||100||4 h 22 m||Show|
6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on Georgia Southern -10.5
The Key: Georgia Southern currently sits at 8-3 while having a tremendous season in the Sun Belt. Two more wins and they can get to 10, which would be a huge accomplishment at the FBS level. Georgia State has lost six straight while going 0-5-1 ATS in the process to drop to 2-9 SU & 2-8-1 ATS on the season. This game is a matchup problem for Georgia State. The Panthers have a horrible defense that gives up 37.6 PPG and 499 YPG on the season. Their biggest weakness is against the run, where they give up 248 RYPG and 6.6 YPC. Georgia Southern is a triple-option team that rushes for 259 RYPG and 5.2 YPC. They will have their way on the ground against the Panthers today. The Panthers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Take Georgia Southern.
|11-24-18||Navy +6.5 v. Tulane||28-29||Win||100||2 h 22 m||Show|
6* AAC Game of the Day on Navy +6.5
The Key: Navy isn’t a team that’s going to quit. The Midshipmen showed that the last two weeks as they gave UCF a run for their money in an 11-point loss as 23.5-point dogs, and they beat Tulsa 37-29 as 5.5-point favorites. They should be able to stay within a touchdown of Tulane and possibly pull the upset today. Tulane is not playing well, only beating ECU by 6 as 10.5-point favorites, and losing 17-48 to Houston as 7.5-point dogs the last two weeks. They are choking away their chance at making a bowl for a second straight season. Navy is 82-45 ATS in its last 127 road games. The Midshipmen are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 coming in. The Green Wave are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games off a blowout loss by 21 points arm ore to a conference opponent. Ken Niumatalolo is 22-12 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Navy. Take Navy.
|11-23-18||Washington v. Washington State -2||Top||28-15||Loss||-105||11 h 31 m||Show|
7* Washington/Wash State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Washington State -2
The Key: This year just feels different. I know Washington has owned Washington State in the Apple Cup, but this is the best Cougars team that Mike Leach has had yet. And I think they’re ready to take that next step. The Cougars are 10-1 SU & 10-1 ATS this season, getting overlooked all year. Their only loss came early in the season by a field goal at USC. Washington has been overvalued all season, going 8-3 SU & 2-9 ATS. The Huskies are 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better this season. Take Washington State.
|11-23-18||East Carolina +17 v. Cincinnati||6-56||Loss||-105||6 h 31 m||Show|
6* ECU/Cincinnati AAC *CA$H COW* on East Carolina +17
The Key: Cincinnati is coming off its Super Bowl last week against UCF that decided the AAC East title. After losing that game 13-38, I just can’t foresee the Bearcats playing well this week as a hangover is in effect. And now they’ll be up against an ECU team that has proven it can play with anyone, especially now that freshman QB Holton Ahlers has taken over. Ahlers has played the better part of 5 games this season, throwing for over 1,600 yards with 11 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions. He has added 571 yards and 6 touchdowns on the ground, putting up monster numbers in only a handful of games this year. And he’ll make enough plays to keep the Pirates in this game Friday as well. The Bearcats are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 37 points or more. Take East Carolina.
|11-22-18||Colorado State +14.5 v. Air Force||19-27||Win||100||5 h 52 m||Show|
6* Colorado State/Air Force MWC *CA$H COW* on Colorado State +14.5
The Key: Both Air Force and Colorado State have fallen short of bowl eligibility this season. So both teams are playing for pride, and I don’t see an advantage for either team in that department. Both are coming off crushing losses, but I was way impressed with Colorado State’s 24-29 loss as 29.5-point underdogs to Utah State last week. Utah State is one of the best teams in the country, and the Rams outgained them 506 to 310 for the game and really should have won. The Rams average nearly 300 passing yards per game this season, and they should have their way with an Air Force defense that gives up 8.7 yards per attempt through the air this year. Air Force is 1-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Take Colorado State.
|11-17-18||UNLV v. Hawaii -6.5||28-35||Win||100||71 h 21 m||Show|
6* UNLV/Hawaii Mountain West *BAILOUT* on Hawaii -6.5
The Key: The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are 6-5 this season. But they need one more win for a bowl because they play 13 games, which requires 7 wins. And they have a road game on deck next week against San Diego State. So this will be Hawaii’s Super Bowl. And they should be well prepared considering they had a bye last week to get ready for it. UNLV played and won its Super Bowl last week in a 27-24 upset at San Diego State as 24-point dogs. But San Diego State was looking ahead to its game with Fresno State this week to decide the division title. And UNLV won’t show up at all this week against the Rainbow Warriors in my estimation. UNLV is 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games off a road win against a conference opponent. Take Hawaii.
|11-17-18||South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette -17||38-48||Loss||-112||65 h 20 m||Show|
6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on UL-Lafayette -17
The Key: Lafayette sits at 5-5 and one win away from bowl eligibility here as they host South Alabama. They want to take care of business here on Senior Day and will be hungry to do so because they don’t want to try and have to win next week against red-hot Louisiana-Monroe on the road. They should handle their business against South Alabama, which is 1-6 in its last 7 games overall with all 6 losses coming by 17 points or more. The Jaguars are 0-5 on the road this season and losing by 32.6 PPG on average. Lafayette is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS at home and scoring 45.2 PPG with 554 YPG. Their offense is built to cover big spreads like this. South Alabama is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after having lost 6 or 7 of its last 8 games coming in. The Jaguars are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games. The Rajin’ Cajuns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Take UL-Lafayette.
|11-17-18||Indiana +28.5 v. Michigan||20-31||Win||100||65 h 30 m||Show|
6* Indiana/Michigan Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Indiana +28.5
The Key: Michigan has its Super Bowl on deck against Ohio State. I have to think the Wolverines will be looking past the Hoosiers and ahead to that game, which will decide the Big Ten East champion and possibly which team makes the four-team playoff. Any lack of focus out of the Wolverines this week and it’s going to be tough to cover this 28.5-point spread. Even if they show up it’s going to be tough because the Hoosiers are no pushovers. They have yet to lose a game by more than 26 points despite playing a rugged Big Ten East schedule. Jim Harbaugh is 0-6 ATS off a win by 35 points or more as the coach of the Wolverines. Take Indiana.
|11-17-18||Air Force v. Wyoming -2.5||Top||27-35||Win||100||64 h 21 m||Show|
7* Mountain West Game of the Month on Wyoming -2.5
The Key: Wyoming has fought its way back into bowl contention at 4-6 on the season. The Cowboys went on the road and beat Colorado State 34-21 and topped San Jose State 24-9 at home. Then they had a bye last week to get ready for the stretch run, where now if they beat Air Force and New Mexico they will get to a bowl, which is very doable. It starts with taking care of Air Force here, and they have the rest advantage because Air Force played New Mexico last week. The Falcons only run the football as they average just 14 pass attempts per game. That bodes well for Wyoming, which is giving up just 114 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry this season. The Falcons are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 conference games, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Cowboys are 14-3 ATS in the last 17 meetings, including 4-0 ATS in the last 4 home meetings. Take Wyoming.
|11-17-18||Liberty +28 v. Auburn||0-53||Loss||-106||64 h 20 m||Show|
6* NCAAF Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Liberty +28
The Key: Auburn has the Iron Bowl on deck against Alabama next week. The Tigers just lost to Georgia last week. This is a sandwich game for them. They had a similar situation earlier this season when they only beat Southern Miss 24-13 at home as 27.5-point favorites. Now they’re 28-point favorites against Liberty here, a Liberty team that has been competitive in almost every game this season. Liberty is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 games as a road dog of 21.5 or more points. Take Liberty.
|11-16-18||Memphis v. SMU +9||Top||28-18||Loss||-109||45 h 27 m||Show|
7* Memphis/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on SMU +9
The Key: SMU can clinch a bowl berth with a win Friday night at home over Memphis. Memphis has already clinched a bowl at 6-4. It’s clear to me the hungrier team will be the home underdog Mustangs. And they are fighting for a bowl and have been for weeks, going 3-1 in their last 4 games with their only loss coming to nationally ranked Cincinnati in overtime. They upset Tulane as 9.5-point road dogs 27-23 and upset Houston 45-31 as 14-point home dogs. And now they are catching too many points against Memphis. The Tigers are just 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS on the road this season, where their defense is giving up 42 PPG and 504 YPG. SMU has topped 500 total yards in each of its last two games against Houston and UConn while averaging 53.5 PPG and should be able to move the ball at will. Bets on home dogs of 3.5 to 10 points who scored 42 or more points in 2 straight games coming in are 44-12 ATS over the last 5 years. Take SMU.
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -3.5||Top||38-41||Loss||-105||22 h 52 m||Show|
7* FAU/North Texas C-USA *HEAVY HITTER* on North Texas -3.5
The Key: North Texas wants revenge from two losses to FAU last season. They lost 69-31 in the regular season and 41-17 in the conference championship game. But there’s no question the Mean Green have the better team in 2018, and it will show on the field Thursday night. The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 November games. Take North Texas.
|11-14-18||Buffalo v. Ohio -2.5||17-52||Win||100||5 h 39 m||Show|
6* Buffalo/Ohio MAC *CA$H COW* on Ohio -2.5
The Key: Buffalo knows it can clinch the MAC East title with a win over Bowling Green next week. They won’t be putting all their eggs into one basket here against Ohio because of it, knowing they have another shot to clinch next week if they should lose this game. I think Ohio comes in determined after a tough 2-point loss to Miami Ohio last week with the safety being the difference. Ohio has gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their previous 6 games before that one and were playing some great football. Now they want to prove that they are the best team in the MAC East by beating Buffalo tonight, and keeping their hopes alive of winning the division. The Bobcats are 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS at home this year and winning by 23.7 PPG on average. Ohio is 10-1 SU in its last 11 home meetings with Buffalo. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. good offensive teams that score 34 or more points per game. Take Ohio.
|11-10-18||Florida State +17 v. Notre Dame||Top||13-42||Loss||-115||10 h 36 m||Show|
7* FSU/Notre Dame Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Florida State +17
The Key: This line has hardly moved since it was announced that Ian Book was out at quarterback for Notre Dame. Oddsmakers aren’t adjusting enough for his absence. Brandon Wimbush will take his place, and he’s a terrible passer. He’s completing just 55.3% of his passes this season compared to 74.5% for Book. Wimbush has a 1/4 TD/INT ratio compared to the 15/4 mark for Book. Wimbush is a running quarterback. That plays right into Florida State’s hands. The biggest strength of this entire FSU team is their run defense. The Seminoles only give up 111 RYPG and 2.8 YPC! That’s not what you would expect form a 4-5 team like them. But this is the Super Bowl for the Seminoles and they’ll come to play tonight to try and knock off the unbeaten Fighting Irish. The Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. The Fighting Irish are 7-20-1 ATS in their last 28 November games. All the pressure is on the Irish tonight. Take Florida State.
|11-10-18||Oregon +4.5 v. Utah||25-32||Loss||-105||8 h 36 m||Show|
6* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Oregon +4.5
The Key: Utah’s two best offensive players are out for this game. QB Tyler Huntley is out with a broken collarbone, while star RB Zack Moss (1,092 yards, 11 TD, 6.1 YPC) is out with an ankle injury. The Utes shouldn’t even be favored in this game tonight. Justin Herbert and this Oregon offense will be the best unit on the field now. Oregon has had Utah’s number, going 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Ducks won outright as underdogs each of the last 2 seasons, and they’ll do the same again here Saturday given the huge injuries for the Utes. Bets against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are coming off an upset loss as a road favorite of 7 or more, in weeks 10 through 13 are 35-9 ATS since 1992. Take Oregon.
|11-10-18||UL-Monroe -7 v. South Alabama||38-10||Win||100||7 h 6 m||Show|
6* Sun Belt Game of the Day on UL-Monroe -7
The Key: The ULM Warhawks have reeled off 3 straight victories to get to 5-4 this season. They can clinch bowl eligibility with a win Saturday and should be able to do so in blowout fashion against 2-7 South Alabama. Few teams were more impressive than ULM last week. They beat Georgia Southern 44-25 and outgained them by a ridiculous 357 yards in the process. That was a one-loss GA Southern team at the time whose lone loss came to Clemson. It was as impressive as any win in the Sun Belt this season. Look for the Warhawks to keep rolling this weekend. South Alabama is 1-14 ATS off a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons. Take UL-Monroe.
|11-10-18||Northwestern +10 v. Iowa||14-10||Win||100||6 h 36 m||Show|
6* Northwestern/Iowa Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Northwestern +10
The Key: Underdogs are 9-0-1 ATS in Northwestern games this season. The Wildcats have covered every time they’ve been a dog this season with one push. And they are 5-1 in Big Ten play this season with wins over Michigan State, Wisconsin and Purdue. They are a good team and they aren’t getting treated like it. The Iowa Hawkeyes already have 3 conference losses and could suffer a hangover here off their two straight tough losses in the closing seconds to Purdue and Penn State. Take Northwestern.
|11-10-18||Mississippi State +24.5 v. Alabama||0-24||Win||100||6 h 35 m||Show|
6* Mississippi State/Alabama SEC *CA$H COW* on Mississippi State +24.5
The Key: The Alabama Crimson Tide are prone to hangovers after big wins. And this is the perfect spot for one after their huge win at LSU last week. The Mississippi State Bulldogs have managed to stay within 25 points of Alabama in 11 of the past 14 meetings. They have been competitive against what has been the most dominant football program ever over the past decade-plus. Mississippi State certainly has the defense to be competitive this season, too. The Bulldogs are yielding just 12.3 PPG this year. They have been stout against the run and the pass. Mobile QB Nick Fitzgerald should be able to do enough with his legs to put up enough points to stay within the number as well. Take Mississippi State.
|11-07-18||Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3||Top||15-38||Win||100||8 h 8 m||Show|
7* Toledo/NIU MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Northern Illinois -3
The Key: The Northern Illinois Huskies can basically wrap up to the MAC West title with a win tonight. No question they’ll be motivated to get it done. This has been one of the best teams in the MAC all season, and they should be able to handle Toledo by more than a field goal at home tonight. NIU is 6-3 this season with its 3 losses coming to Utah, Iowa and Florida State. The Huskies have handled their business in MAC play this year with a 5-0 conference record. They also went on the road and upset BYU. Toledo is still without starting QB Mitchell Guadagni. Their backup has played well in his place, but against soft defenses, and he’s going to really get tested tonight against the best defense in the MAC. The Huskies are giving up just 20.4 PPG and 327 YPG in MAC play this year. That’s the difference in this game. Toledo is allowing 26.4 PG and 445 YPG this season. The Huskies are 7-0 ATS after outrushing their last opponent by 150 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a win. Take Northern Illinois.
|11-06-18||Kent State +20 v. Buffalo||Top||14-48||Loss||-110||5 h 39 m||Show|
7* Kent State/Buffalo MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +20
The Key: Buffalo doesn’t even need to show up tonight. The Bulls can lose outright and it won’t matter. Next week’s game against Ohio will decided the MAC East champion. I think their lack of motivation will allow Kent State to get the cover here. And I also like that there is gusts of up to 50 miles per hour forecasted in this one, which should keep this a low scoring affair. Take Kent State.
|11-03-18||Boston College -2 v. Virginia Tech||31-21||Win||100||37 h 2 m||Show|
6* Boston College/VA Tech ACC *CA$H COW* on Boston College -2
The Key: Virginia Tech used to have a great home-field advantage. But that is clearly no longer the case. The Hokies are just 8-9 SU at home in ACC play over the last 5 seasons. Boston College is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last 7 ACC road games. The Eagles travel well and should be able to beat a down Virginia Tech team that is 1-2 at home this season with blowout losses to both Notre Dame (23-45) and Georgia Tech (28-49). Their only home win came against William & Mary. And they also lost on the road to Old Dominion (35-49) as 28-point favorites earlier this season. The Hokies have one of the youngest defenses in the country. They are giving up 5.8 yards per carry in ACC play this year. Boston College, which rushes for 230 yards per game this season, should have its way on the ground against the Hokies. The Eagles are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 conference games. The Eagles are 8-0 ATS off a home games over the last 2 seasons. The Eagles are 14-3-1 ATS in their last 18 games overall. Take Boston College.
|11-03-18||Georgia v. Kentucky +9.5||34-17||Loss||-115||37 h 52 m||Show|
6* Georgia/Kentucky SEC *CA$H COW* on Kentucky +9.5
The Key: Kentucky just gets no respect from oddsmakers. The Wildcats are 9.5-point home dogs to the Georgia Bulldogs this week despite being 7-1 and ranked #9 in the country. The Wildcats have earned that ranking by going 5-1 in ACC play with their only loss coming in overtime on the road at Texas A&M. And I think they have what it takes to hang with Georgia this week. Georgia looked vulnerable with its 16-36 road loss at LSU a few weeks back. And the Bulldogs are coming off the Cocktail Party win over Florida last week, making this a precarious spot for them. Kentucky’s defense is good enough to keep them in this game. The Wildcats are yielding just 13 PPG and 295 YPG this season. This will be the best ever atmosphere in Lexington for a college football game with the SEC East title essentially riding on the outcome. Take Kentucky.
|11-03-18||Liberty +2 v. UMass||Top||59-62||Loss||-110||37 h 47 m||Show|
7* NCAAF Independent Game of the Year on Liberty +2
The Key: Liberty is the better of these two teams. They sit at 4-3 on the season with wins over the likes of Troy and New Mexico. And they’ve been competitive in most of their games. Plus they had a bye last week to get ready to face UMass this week. UMass is coming off a fortunate 22-17 victory at UConn last week as they trailed most the way. And UConn is one of the worst teams in the country. The Minutemen are just 3-6 this season with their other two wins coming against Duquesne and Charlotte. All 6 of their losses have come by double-digits. Now they have to face an option team here in Liberty. The last time they faced an option team they lost 13-34 at Georgia Southern as 1.5-point underdogs on September 8th. Liberty is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog. Take Liberty.
|11-03-18||Kansas State +8 v. TCU||13-14||Win||100||37 h 46 m||Show|
6* Kansas State/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State +8
The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have hit rock bottom. They are just 1-5 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Their only win came on a last-second field goal in a 17-14 home win over Iowa State as 11.5-point favorites. They are coming off a 26-27 loss at Kansas as 13-point favorites. Gary Patterson seems to have lost this team. And injuries haven’t helped. TCU recently lost its best playmakers on offense in KaVontae Turpin. Two of the best defensive players are out for this game in LB Ty Summers and S Niko Small. Kansas State certainly won’t quit on Bill Snyder. The Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with their only blowout loss coming at Oklahoma last week. They played Texas to a 5-point game and Baylor to a 3-point game while upsetting Oklahoma State 31-12. At 3-5 this season, the Wildcats have a great shot to win their next 3 games as they host Kansas and Texas Tech after this. That would get them into a bowl game. The Wildcats are 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a blowout road loss by 21 points or more. Take Kansas State.
|11-03-18||Iowa State -14.5 v. Kansas||27-3||Win||100||33 h 17 m||Show|
6* Iowa State/Kansas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State -14.5
The Key: The Iowa State Cyclones continue to fly under the radar. Since Matt Campbell took over, this has been one of the greatest turnarounds of any program in the country. The Cyclones have gone 23-6-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall, including 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games. They have played the toughest schedule in the country and have gotten through with a 4-3 record. And they’ve been in every game they’ve played with all 3 of their losses coming by 10 points or less to Iowa, Oklahoma and TCU. They beat West Virginia handily at home, won at Oklahoma State, and handled Texas Tech at home last week. Now they catch Kansas at a good time. The Jayhawks are coming off a rare win in the Big 12 with a 27-26 upset victory over TCU last week. That’s a TCU team that appears to have quit. And I think the Jayhawks will suffer a letdown this week off that monumental win. Look for the Cyclones to make easy work of them just as they did last season in a 45-0 win in Ames. The Cyclones are 16-3 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons. Take Iowa State.
|11-02-18||Colorado v. Arizona -2.5||Top||34-42||Win||100||20 h 47 m||Show|
7* Colorado/Arizona NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona -2.5
The Key: Khalil Tate finally looked healthy for the first time all season last week as he returned from injury to face Oregon. The Wildcats played their best game of the season in a 44-15 victory. Tate threw for 189 yards and 3 touchdowns in the win. And now the Wildcats are getting zero respect for that victory as only 2.5-point home favorites over Colorado Friday night. I think the Wildcats remain hungry because they are 4-5 and need 2 more wins to make a bowl, and this game is a must-win if they want to get to a bowl because they have a road game at Washington State next time out that they’re unlikely to win. And they get a bye next week so they certainly want to go into their bye with a taste of victory. Colorado blew a huge lead against Oregon State last week and lost 34-41. I think they could suffer a hangover from that defeat. The Buffaloes have now lost 3 straight as the competition has ramped up. Colorado is 0-7 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. The Buffaloes are also 0-7 ATS after playing a game where 60 or more points were scores over the last 2 years. Take Arizona.
|11-01-18||Ohio -3 v. Western Michigan||59-14||Win||100||4 h 15 m||Show|
6* Ohio/Western Michigan MAC *CA$H COW* on Ohio -3
The Key: The Ohio Bobcats were MAC title contenders coming into the season and now they are playing like it after a rough start in the non-conference. They have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-1 SU in their last 5 games. Their only loss came on the road at Northern Illinois by a field goal, 21-24. Their last two wins have been 49-14 over Bowling Green and 52-14 over Ball State. Now they face a Western Michigan team coming off a 24-51 home loss to Toledo. And the Broncos suffered a huge loss in that game when starting QB Jon Wassink suffered an ankle injury. Wassink has thrown or 2,009 yards and 16 touchdowns with only 6 interceptions this season. He also rushed for 6 scores. It’s a big blow for the Broncos and a big downgrade to Kaleb Eleby at quarterback. No question the Bobcats have the best QB in the MAC in Nathan Rourke, who has thrown 14 touchdowns with 5 interceptions, while also rushing for 569 yards and 6 scores. I’ll take the team with the much better quarterback tonight. The Bobcats are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games. Take Ohio.
|10-31-18||Ball State v. Toledo UNDER 66||Top||13-45||Win||100||6 h 1 m||Show|
7* Ball State/Toledo MAC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 66
The Key: Ball State has several key injuries right now that will hamper their ability to score points. Riley Neal means everything to this team at the quarterback position. He was knocked out for the season in their last game and won’t be returning. That leaves backup QB Drew Pitt to take the reigns. Also, leading rusher James Gilbert is questionable to play tonight with a back injury. They have some serious injuries on the offensive line as well. For Toledo, starting QB Mitchell Guadagni is questionable with a shoulder injury, and even if he plays he won’t be 100%. Ball State is 12-2 UNDER in its last 14 games as a road dog of 14.5 to 21 points. The UNDER is 7-2-1 in Cardinals last 10 games overall. The UNDER is 7-1 in Rockets last eight Wednesday games. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Toledo. Take the UNDER.
|10-30-18||Kent State +1.5 v. Bowling Green||Top||35-28||Win||100||6 h 2 m||Show|
7* Kent State/Bowling Green MAC *HEAVY HITTER* on Kent State +1.5
The Key: Both Kent State and Bowling Green are 1-7 this season. But it’s clear to me that Kent State is better than their record, while Bowling Green is every bit as poor as its record. The only win for Bowling Green came 42-35 at home over Eastern Kentucky. The lone win for Kent State came 54-14 over Howard, the same Howard team that only lost 32-38 to Ohio. And Kent State has losses by 1, 1, and 7 points this season to Illinois, Ohio and Akron. Bowling Green’s 7 losses have all come by 7 points or more, and 6 of them by 15 points or more. These teams have 2 common opponents with both losing, the difference being Kent State only losing by 13 PPG while Bowling Green losing by 25 PPG. The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. teams who average 250 PYPG or more and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. teams who allow 230 RYPG or more. The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games following a loss. The Falcons are 1-10 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70 over the last 3 years. Take Kent State.
|10-27-18||Washington v. California +12||Top||10-12||Win||100||17 h 42 m||Show|
7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on California +12
The Key: The Cal Golden Bears finally snapped out of their funk with a 49-7 beat down of Oregon State. That result was more indicative of the potential of this team than the three consecutive losses that preceded it. The Golden Bears gave away those three games by committing a combined 14 turnovers in them, which is almost unheard of. They only gave the ball away once against Oregon State and amassed 539 total yards. They can play with Washington if they don’t turn the ball over, and likely beat them. The Huskies are just 2-6 ATS in their 8 games this season and have been overrated all season. They should not be double-digit road favorites over the Bears this weekend. Cal is 7-0 ATS off a game where they committed one or fewer turnovers over the last 2 seasons. Take Cal.
|10-27-18||Iowa +5.5 v. Penn State||24-30||Loss||-103||14 h 41 m||Show|
6* Iowa/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Iowa +5.5
The Key: Iowa has opened 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS this season. The Hawkeyes have been one of the most underrated teams in college football. And they really should be 7-0. They led Wisconsin in the final minutes, and that was even after they committed two special teams mistakes that led to Badgers touchdowns. This team is the real deal and they will prove it by beating Penn State on the road Saturday. The Nittany Lions had their dreams crushed with back-to-back home losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. And then last week they were lucky to win 33-28 at Indiana as 14-point favorites because they were outgained by 137 yards and gave up 554 yards to the Hoosiers. Iowa is one of the best teams in the country at stopping the run, giving up 80 RYPG and 2.7 YPC. That bodes well for them being able to stop a Penn State rushing attack that is averaging 241 RYPG and 5.9 YPC. Kirk Ferentz is 27-5 ATS vs. excellent rushing teams that average 5.25 YPC or more as the coach of the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa.
|10-27-18||Arizona State +3.5 v. USC||38-35||Win||100||14 h 41 m||Show|
6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Arizona State +3.5
The Key: USC suffered its third loss of the season last week in a 28-41 setback at Utah. That was a much worse loss than the final score showed as the Trojans were outgained by 336 yards. I think the air has been lifted out from underneath their sails now. They have no chance to win the Pac-12 and little to play for the rest of the way. Arizona State is a team that will keep battling under first-year head coach Herm Edwards. The Sun Devils sit at just 3-4 this season, but all 4 losses came by 7 points or less, so they’ve had a chance to win every game. They are much better than their record suggests. And they’ve had extra rest after playing last Thursday in a 13-20 home loss to Stanford in a game they should have won as they outgained the Cardinal by 79 yards. Look for them to come back with a chip on their shoulder this week, rested and ready to go. The Sun Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. The Trojans are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall. USC is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. The Trojans are 0-6 ATS off 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons. Take Arizona State.
|10-26-18||Wyoming v. Colorado State -1.5||Top||34-21||Loss||-110||34 h 48 m||Show|
7* Wyoming/Colorado State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State -1.5
The Key: I love the price we are getting on Colorado State as less than a field goal home favorite over Wyoming Friday night. The Rams still have something to play for at 3-5 as they need to win 3 of their final 4 games to make a bowl. And this one is their most winnable, so they should handle their business. The Rams have a full week to get ready for this game after playing last Friday. Their offense put up 489 total yards against Boise State in what was a misleading 28-56 loss. The Broncos got 2 special teams touchdowns and the Rams outgained them by 17 yards. Collin Hill took over for Carta-Samuels at QB midway through the game and finished 12-of-14 for 135 yards and a touchdown. Hill is expected to get the start this week and is an upgrade over Carta-Samuels. Wyoming is just 2-6 with very little to play for at this point. It is coming off 4 consecutive losses, and its two wins this season have come against Wofford (17-14) and New Mexico State. The Cowboys have been atrocious on offense in averaging just 15.5 PPG and 289 YPG this season. I’m not sure how they are going to keep up with this potent Colorado State offense. The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Wyoming is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Take Colorado State.
|10-25-18||Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -3||Top||49-28||Loss||-115||8 h 45 m||Show|
7* Georgia Tech/Virginia Tech ACC *HEAVY HITTER* on Virginia Tech -3
The Key: I love the situation for the Hokies tonight. Both them and Georgia Tech are coming off bye weeks, and that clearly favors the Hokies. Any time a team has extra time to prepare for the triple-option I’m looking to back that team because it’s so critical to get that extra prep time. Whether it be off a bye or for a bowl game, it’s a huge advantage. And defensive coordinator Bud Foster will be extra hungry after losing to Georgia Tech each of the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. Georgia Tech is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games overall. The Hokies are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Hokies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week. Take Virginia Tech.
|10-23-18||Troy v. South Alabama UNDER 54.5||Top||38-17||Loss||-105||6 h 24 m||Show|
7* Troy/South Alabama Sun Belt *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 54.5
The Key: The Troy Trojans lost starting QB Kaleb Barker to a torn ACL two games ago. Backup Sawyer Smith started against Liberty and the Trojans lost a defensive battle, 16-22. This should be another defensive battle here against South Alabama if the recent series history is any indication. The UNDER is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings with combined scores of 27 (2017), 49 (2016), 42 (2015) and 40 (2014) points. I’m shocked to see this total sitting at 54.5 given the series history plus Troy’s QB situation. Take the UNDER.
|10-20-18||USC v. Utah OVER 48||28-41||Win||100||24 h 32 m||Show|
6* USC/Utah Pac-12 *BAILOUT* on OVER 48
The Key: Both USC and Utah have come alive offensively. Utah scored 40 against Stanford and 42 against Arizona in its last two games. USC scored 39 against Washington State, 24 against Arizona and 31 against Colorado in its last three games. I think this is a very low total given how well both offenses are clicking right now. They’ve combined for 58 and 55 in their last two meetings. USC is 7-0 OVER in its last 7 road games off 2 conescutive games where they committed 3 or more turnovers. Utah is 8-0 OVER in its last 8 home games after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in 2 consecutive games. Take the OVER.
|10-20-18||Alabama v. Tennessee +29||58-21||Loss||-110||19 h 56 m||Show|
6* Alabama/Tennessee SEC *CA$H COW* on Tennessee +29
The Key: The Tennessee Vols are improving rapidly under first-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt, who was the defensive coordinator at Alabama before coming here. And Pruitt knows Alabama’s personnel and most of its playbook, which would be a big advantage for the Vols. The Vols are coming off a 30-24 upset road win over Auburn as 15.5-point favorites. They covered against Georgia the previous week as 31-point road underdogs, and now they should cover as 28.5-point home dogs to Alabama. Tennessee has never been this big of a home underdog at least dating back to 1980. There’s some value here with the Vols. Take Tennessee.
|10-20-18||UTEP +23.5 v. Louisiana Tech||24-31||Win||100||19 h 56 m||Show|
6* Conference USA Play of the Day on UTEP +23.5
The Key: I like the spot for this improving UTEP squad Saturday. They are coming off a bye and have to be gleaming with confidence after a 24-27 home loss to North Texas as 24.5-point dogs last time out. North Texas is one of the best teams in Conference USA, so that was an impressive performance. They only lost by 24 at Tennessee as 33.5-point dogs earlier this season, and have only lost by more than 24 points once this season. But because they are 0-6 they aren’t getting any respect from oddsmakers. LA Tech is getting too much respect for its 31-3 win at UTSA last week. That followed up a 7-28 home loss to UAB. The last 3 meetings in this series were decided by 21, 21 and 2 points, and the Miners were massive underdogs in all 3 games. They are once again massive dogs here and showing good value. Take UTEP.
|10-20-18||Auburn v. Ole Miss +4||Top||31-16||Loss||-109||15 h 27 m||Show|
7* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +4
The Key: I think Auburn has thrown in the towel already. The Tigers had SEC title aspirations coming into the season, but now they’ve lost 3 games already. And they just aren’t that good. They are coming off an ugly 24-30 home loss to Tennessee as 15.5-point favorites. And I question their motivation now with 3 losses. Ole Miss is feeling good with a 5-2 start with its only losses coming to LSU and Alabama, two of the best teams in the country. They got a big 37-33 comeback road win at Arkansas last week. The Tigers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Ole Miss.
|10-20-18||Oklahoma v. TCU +8||52-27||Loss||-110||15 h 26 m||Show|
6* Oklahoma/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU +8
The Key: TCU is going to be in a sour mood with Oklahoma coming to town Saturday. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but the losses to Ohio State and Texas weren’t bad. Their loss to Texas Tech was. And Gary Patterson should have his team ready to go this week to make amends. The Horned Frogs also want revenge from 2 losses to the Sooners last year, including in the Big 12 title game. Oklahoma is just 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and has been an overvalued commodity. Patterson is 10-2 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4 games as the coach of TCU. Lincoln Riley is 0-6 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63 as the coach of Oklahoma. Take TCU.
|10-19-18||Colorado State +24 v. Boise State||Top||28-56||Loss||-105||12 h 48 m||Show|
7* Colorado State/Boise State NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Colorado State +24
The Key: Colorado State has played Boise State tough the last 2 years. The Rams only lost by 5 as 28-point road underdogs in 2016 . And last year they lost by 7 in overtime as 6.5-point home dogs. They led by 14 late in that game and it took a miracle for Boise State to win. So the Rams will be out for revenge for sure. And they are catching a whopping 24 points in this year’s meeting. I just think Boise State is overrated right now. They lost to San Diego State outright and barely beat Nevada in their last two games. The Broncos are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 home games. The Rams are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Colorado State.
|10-18-18||Stanford -2.5 v. Arizona State||20-13||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
6* Stanford/ASU Pac-12 *CA$H COW* on Stanford -2.5
The Key: Stanford really needed the bye week to get Bryce Love healthy and recover from a grueling 3-week stretch. They played Oregon, Notre Dame and Utah in consecutive weeks coming into their bye. They looked worn down by the time they lost 21-40 to Utah. Now they can regroup, and I trust David Shaw as one of the best head coaches in the country to get his team ready to go this week against Arizona State. The Sun Devils have not fared well when they’ve stepped up in class this year, losing to San Diego State, Washington and Colorado. They did beat Michigan State 16-13, but scored 10 unanswered points in the 4th quarter and were fortunate to win that contest. The Cardinal are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games following a loss. The Cardinal are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 against good offensive teams that average 5.9 or more yards per play. Take Stanford.
|10-13-18||Ole Miss v. Arkansas +7||37-33||Win||100||30 h 31 m||Show|
6* Ole Miss/Arkansas SEC *CA$H COW* on Arkansas +7
The Key: Ole Miss has been embarrassed when stepping up in class. They lost 7-62 at home to Alabama and 16-45 at LSU for their two losses this season. Arkansas played Alabama last week and only lost 31-65, actually gaining over 400 yards on that Alabama defense. Ole Miss was held to just 248 yards against Alabama. Arkansas has an improved defense that held Auburn to 225 total yards three weeks ago and Texas A&M to 24 points and 377 total yards two weeks ago. No question the Razorbacks are battle-tested now and won’t be phased by this Ole Miss offense. And the Razorbacks are primed for their biggest offensive output of the season against an Ole Miss defense that has been shredded for 35.5 PPG and 504 YPG this season. The Rebels should not be TD road favorites here Saturday with that leaky of a defense. Ole Miss is 0-6 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Arkansas is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games following 3 or more consecutive losses. The Rebels are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win by more than 20 points. The Razorbacks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home meetings with the Rebels, and 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings overall. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Take Arkansas.
|10-13-18||Michigan State +13.5 v. Penn State||21-17||Win||100||26 h 40 m||Show|
6* Michigan State/Penn State Big Ten *CA$H COW* on Michigan State +13.5
The Key: This is the preferred role when backing the Michigan State Spartans. Not the role they’ve been in the last few weeks as double-digit favorites as they’ve failed to live up to expectations. But the underdog role where Mark Dantonio thrives. Penn State is reeling from the loss to Ohio State and could suffer a hangover, similar to last year when they were upset in East Lansing by the Spartans. Penn State is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 home games off a home loss to a conference opponent. The Nittany Lions are 1-10-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss. The Spartans are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Michigan State.
|10-13-18||Central Florida v. Memphis +5||31-30||Win||100||26 h 30 m||Show|
6* UCF/Memphis AAC *CA$H COW* on Memphis +5
The Key: UCF has benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the country. Their 5 wins have come against UConn, South Carolina State, FAU, Pitt and SMU with 4 of those games at home. They haven’t been on the road since August 30th against UConn. This will easily be their toughest game of the season here at Memphis, which is 4-0 at home this season and winning by 36.8 PPG on average. The Tigers want revenge from their 62-55 (OT) loss to UCF in the AAC title game last year. Memphis is 8-0 ATS in its last 8 home games vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 17-plus PPG. The Tigers have one of the best home-field advantages in the country, and it will be a great atmosphere Saturday with nationally ranked UCF coming to town. Take Memphis.
|10-13-18||Florida -7 v. Vanderbilt||Top||37-27||Win||100||22 h 1 m||Show|
7* SEC Game of the Month on Florida -7
The Key: Many would expect Florida to have a letdown after their big 27-19 win over LSU last week. However, the Gators have a bye on deck next week, so that kind of trumps that theory. They will be laying it all on the line to get a win here against Vanderbilt knowing that they have next week off. Florida is 25-1 SU in its last 26 meetings with Vanderbilt, including 13-0 in its last 13 trips to Vanderbilt. The Commodores have been awful in their last 3 games. They lost 14-37 at home to South Carolina, barely beat Tennessee State 31-27 as 28.5-point home favorites, and lost 13-41 at Georgia. They have come back down to reality after a fast start to the season against weak competition. The Gators have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games with wins by 38 over Colorado State, by 26 at Tennessee, by 7 at Mississippi State and by 8 at home over LSU. They continue rolling Saturday. Take Florida.
|10-13-18||Oklahoma State v. Kansas State +7||12-31||Win||100||22 h 60 m||Show|
6* Oklahoma State/K-State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Kansas State +7
The Key: Both Kansas State and Oklahoma State are having down seasons. Kansas State is 2-4 and in need of a victory after losing 3 straight. They lost by 5 at home to Texas and by 3 at Baylor the last 2 weeks. They are clearly hungry for a win and I think they have a good shot to get one Saturday at home against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has lost by 24 at home to Texas Tech and by 6 at home to Iowa State in two of the last three weeks with a 20-point win at Kansas in between. And this has really been a tight series in recent meetings. 4 of the lsat 5 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less. Oklahoma State hasn’t beaten Kansas State by more than 7 points in any of the last 7 meetings. That’s a 7-0 angle backing the Wildcats. Take Kansas State.
|10-12-18||Arizona +14 v. Utah||Top||10-42||Loss||-103||9 h 43 m||Show|
7* Arizona/Utah NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Arizona +14
The Key: Utah is getting too much respect from its 40-21 win at Stanford last week. The Cardinal were gassed in that game as they were playing a 3rd straight tough game after facing Oregon and Notre Dame the previous two weeks. The Utes took advantage. But now they’ll laying two touchdowns to the Arizona Wildcats, who have won 3 of their last 4 coming in with their only loss coming 20-24 to USC. Seven of the last eight meetings between Utah and Arizona have been decided by 14 points or fewer. The Wildcats can hang here, especially since the Utes have an underwhelming offense that makes it tough for them to win by a margin. Take Arizona.
|10-11-18||Texas Tech v. TCU -7||17-14||Loss||-105||9 h 40 m||Show|
6* Texas Tech/TCU Big 12 *CA$H COW* on TCU -7
The Key: TCU has won 3 of its last 4 meetings with Texas Tech, including last year’s 27-3 victory as 6.5-point road favorites. Now they are only 7-point home favorites this time around. And TCU’s only two losses this season have come on a neutral to Ohio State and on the road to Texas, two of the best teams in the country. Texas Tech lost by 8 at home to West Virginia and by 20 on a neutral to Ole Miss. I believe TCU is the best team that they’ve faced yet. And the Red Raiders have quarterback injury problems right now with both Bowman (lung) and Carter (ankle) highly questionable tonight. They could be down to their third-stringer. Either way, TCU has one of the best defenses in the country and will shut them down just as they did last year. Gary Patterson is 14-3 ATS in home games off a bye week as the coach of TCU. Take TCU.
|10-09-18||Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +10.5||Top||35-9||Loss||-106||7 h 43 m||Show|
7* Sun Belt Game of the Month on Arkansas State +10.5
The Key: This spread has gotten out of control with Appalachian State laying double-digits on the road against a Sun Belt power in Arkansas State that has won 5 titles in the past 6 seasons. This one is all about strength of schedule for me. App State has played a very weak schedule with three cupcakes and only one tough game at Penn State, which was back in Week 1. Arkansas State has played 4 games already against solid programs in Alabama, Tulsa, UNLV and Georgia Southern. I expect the Red Wolves to play the underdog card up tonight and be extra hungry for a victory. They are 1-4 ATS this season and undervalued because of it, while App State is 4-0 ATS and overvalued. This is simply too many points tonight. Take Arkansas State.
|10-06-18||UAB +9.5 v. Louisiana Tech||28-7||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
6* Conference USA Game of the Day on UAB +9.5
The Key: This is a very difficult situation for Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs are coming off their two biggest games of the season over the last two weeks. They only trailed 24-21 at LSU before eventually losing 21-38. And then last week they upset North Texas 29-27 as 7.5-point road underdogs. The Mean Green missed two fourth quarter field goals to aid their cause. Now this is clearly a letdown spot for the Bulldogs, and they are starting to get a lot of respect from oddsmakers as 9.5-point favorites against a good UAB team. This is a UAB squad that is 3-1 this season and coming off a dominant 28-7 win over Charlotte, which followed up an upset win over Tulane. UAB beat LA Tech 23-22 as 9.5-point home underdogs last year. They have 16 starters back from that squad and continue to be underrated here. The Blazers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 conference games. The Blazers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Take UAB.
|10-06-18||SMU +24.5 v. Central Florida||20-48||Loss||-105||11 h 11 m||Show|
6* AAC Game of the Day on SMU +24.5
The Key: Bettors are starting to have to pay a tax to back UCF. The Knights are 17-0 dating back to last season and have been covering machines. Now they’re 24.5-point home favorites over SMU this week. SMU has 14 starters back from a team that only lost 24-31 at home to UCF as 14.5-point dogs last year. SMU has picked up back-to-back nice wins against Navy 31-30 and Houston Baptist 63-27. They also only lost by 25 at Michigan as 36.5-point underdogs, and hung tough with TCU for a half. They are capable of hanging with UCF enough to stay within this 24.5-point spread today. Sonny Dykes is 11-2 ATS in road games off 2 or more consecutive wins as a head coach. Take SMU.
|10-06-18||Iowa State +9.5 v. Oklahoma State||Top||48-42||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
7* Big 12 Game of the Month on Iowa State +9.5
The Key: Iowa State is battle-tested already having played Oklahoma, Iowa and TCU with two of those games on the road. And yet they still haven’t lost by more than 10 points in any game, being competitive in all of them. Oklahoma State will be the fourth-best team they have faced yet. And I would argue that Iowa State is probably the best team that Oklahoma State has played. And the Cowboys lost 17-41 at home to Texas Tech as 14.5-point favorites, so they are beatable. And the Cyclones want revenge from some close calls recently against the Cowboys. They have lost 5 straight to Oklahoma State, including the last three all by 7 points or less. I expect this one to go down to the wire as well, so the price is right to back the Cyclones here catching nearly double-digits. The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Cyclones are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record. Iowa State is 10-1 ATS vs. poor pass defenses that allow 58% competitions or more over the last 3 seasons. Take Iowa State.
|10-06-18||Ohio v. Kent State +12||27-26||Win||100||8 h 41 m||Show|
6* MAC Game of the Day on Kent State +12
The Key: Both Kent State and Ohio have a common opponent in Howard. Kent State beat Howard 54-14 as 9-point home favorites and outgained them by 241 yards. Ohio only beat Howard 38-32 as 30.5-point home favorites and was outgained by 220 yards in that contest. And somehow Ohio State is laying double-digits on the road to Kent State? Give me a break. The Golden Flashes have a vastly improved offense this season. They should be able to torch an Ohio defense that is yielding 38.2 points and 518 yards per game this season. Frank Solich is 2-12 ATS after scoring 50 points or more last game in all games he has coached. Take Kent State.
|10-06-18||Northwestern +10 v. Michigan State||29-19||Win||100||4 h 11 m||Show|
6* Big Ten Game of the Day on Northwestern +10
The Key: I believe Northwestern to be undervalued right now due to a 1-3 start and in the midst of a 3-game losing streak. After beating Purdue in their opener, they were upset by both Duke and Akron, but they outgained Duke by 80 yards and Akron by 124. And last week they nearly upset Michigan in a 17-20 home loss. I like the price we are getting with the Wildcats, who should not be 10-point underdogs to an overrated Michigan State team. The Spartans barely beat Utah State 38-31 as 23.5-point home favorites in their opener. And they only won 31-20 over Central Michigan as 27.5-point home favorites last week. If those two teams can hang with the Spartans, Northwestern can as well. Northwestern is actually 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings with Michigan State despite being the underdog in all 4 contests. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Wildcats are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 conference games. The Wildcats are a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 trips to Michigan State. Take Northwestern.
|10-05-18||Utah State +2 v. BYU||Top||45-20||Win||100||8 h 19 m||Show|
7* Utah State/BYU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Utah State +2
The Key: Utah State has gone on to prove that its narrow 31-38 loss to Michigan State as 23.5-point underdogs in the opener was no fluke. They have since gone 3-0 with a 60-13 win over New Mexico State, a 73-12 win over Tennessee Tech and a 42-32 win over Air Force. And now the Aggies are in the perfect spot having a bye since that Air Force win to get ready for BYU. Meanwhile, BYU has played a brutal schedule to start and has had no time off. They’ve played Arizona, Cal, Wisconsin, and Washington. It looked like they ran out of gas last week against Washington, losing 7-35 while getting outgained by 270 yards. I don’t think they’ll have much left in the tank here Friday on this short week against a rested Utah State squad. The Aggies are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game. The Aggies are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 Friday games. The Cougars are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games. BYU is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 home games vs. teams who average 450 or more yards per game on offense. Take Utah State.
|10-04-18||Tulsa v. Houston UNDER 70.5||26-41||Win||100||6 h 10 m||Show|
6* Tulsa/Houston AAC *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 70.5
The Key: There’s value with the UNDER tonight when you look at the series history between these teams. The last 7 meetings between Tulsa and Houston have all seen 69 or fewer combined points. They’ve averaged 60.6 combined PPG in those 7 meetings. And I think we are getting about 10 points of value on this UNDER tonight. Both Houston and Tulsa have better defenses than they get credit for. And Tulsa’s offense is way down this season. Tulsa is 7-0 UNDER vs. good offensive teams that average 5.9 YPP or more over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER.
|09-29-18||Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan -3||26-23||Loss||-118||11 h 35 m||Show|
6* MAC Game of the Day on Eastern Michigan -3
The Key: The Eagles Michigan Eagles continue to lack the respect they deserve from oddsmakers here as only 3-point favorites over Northern Illinois. This is a team that has gone 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games overall and continue to be a covering machine. They have showed their mettle with a 20-19 win at Purdue as 15-point dogs, a 28-35 road loss to a very good Buffalo team, and a 20-23 road loss to a very good San Diego State as 10.5-point dogs over the last 3 weeks. They should be able to handle this down NIU team that is 1-3 with three double-digits losses. Their only win was a 24-16 win over Central Michigan as 13.5-point favorites. That’s a Central Michigan team that lost 31-7 at home to Kansas. The Huskies have been embarrassing on offense this year, averaging just 14 PPG, 236 YPG and 3.5 YPP. It doesn’t get any worse than that. The Eagles are 11-1 ATS off a game where they forced 1 or fewer turnovers over the last 3 seasons. The Eagles are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss. The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Take Eastern Michigan.
|09-29-18||Michigan v. Northwestern +15||20-17||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
6* Big Ten Game of the Day on Northwestern +15
The Key: Northwestern is primed for a big game Saturday. The Wildcats have been steaming for two weeks following their upset loss to Akron in which the Zips had 3 defensive touchdowns. They outgained Akron by 124 yards. And they lost to Duke the week before despite outgaining them by 80 yards. This is a Wildcats team that had high expectations coming into the season. Not all is lost yet, and they have a chance to make a statement here Saturday and improve to 2-0 in Big Ten play. Michigan is getting too much respect from the books. They lost at Notre Dame in the opener, but have reeled off 3 straight home wins over Western Michigan, SMU and Nebraska since. Big deal. They will get more of a fight than they are expecting here from the Wildcats. Michigan is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after scoring 31 or more points in 3 straight games coming in. The Wolverines are 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS win. Michigan is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Wildcats are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game. Take Northwestern.
|09-29-18||Baylor +24 v. Oklahoma||33-66||Loss||-115||8 h 14 m||Show|
6* Big 12 Game of the Day on Baylor +24
The Key: Oklahoma is coming off a shocking 28-21 (OT) victory against Army last week. The Black Knights played a great game and played keep away from the Sooners. They held the ball for nearly 45 minutes compared to just over 15 for the Sooners. I think that effort will have Oklahoma’s defense taxed this week, and Baylor can take advantage. Remember last year Baylor nearly upset Oklahoma in a 41-49 home loss as 27.5-point underdogs. And this Baylor team is much better than that one, while Oklahoma is not as good as last year. The Bears have opened 3-1 with their only loss to unbeaten Duke. They have outgained all four of their opponents this season, including Duke. Bets on road underdogs off a home win against a conference opponent with 4 or more starters returning than an opponent, plus a returning QB starter against a team with a new QB are 31-7 ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Baylor.
|09-29-18||Virginia +6 v. NC State||21-35||Loss||-100||5 h 55 m||Show|
6* ACC Game of the Day on Virginia +6
The Key: Bronco Mendenhall is doing big things in Year 3 at Virginia. He clearly has his best team yet. The Cavaliers are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this season. Their only loss was a 4-point road loss to Indiana in the slop as 5-point underdogs. They beat Richmond 42-13 as 14.5-point favorites. They beat Ohio 45-31 as 4-point favorites. And they dominated Louisville 27-3 as 4.5-point favorites. Their offense is one of the most improved in the country, and their defense is also greatly improved over last year. They are averaging 32.5 PPG and giving up just 16.7 PPG and 297 YPG. NC State lost a ton of NFL talent from their defense last year and returned just 3 starters on that side of the ball. After a weak schedule to open the season with wins over James Madison, Georgia State and Marshall, they take a big step up in class here against the Cavaliers. Virginia is 7-0 ATS in road games in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. The Cavaliers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Virginia.
|09-29-18||UL-Lafayette +49.5 v. Alabama||Top||14-56||Win||100||5 h 35 m||Show|
7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on UL-Lafayette +49.5
The Key: Alabama is notorious for not being able to cover the spread in these situations. They are coming off a big win over Texas A&M, and now they step out of the conference this week before playing another SEC game against Arkansas next week. They just don’t seem like they are ever concerned with running up the score. The starters should be out of the game early in the 3rd quarter. That’s going to make it difficult for them to win by 50-plus to cover this spread. Bets on underdogs of 31.5 or more points who failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team that wins 25% to 40% of their games against a team with a. Winning record are 48-17 ATS since 1992. Take UL-Lafayette.
|09-28-18||Memphis v. Tulane +15||Top||24-40||Win||100||6 h 27 m||Show|
7* Memphis/Tulane NCAAF Friday Night Lights on Tulane +15
The Key: This feels like a huge game for Tulane if they want to get to a bowl game this year. The Green Wave have opened 1-3 with road losses to UAB and Ohio State and a home loss to Wake Forest amidst a brutal schedule. I think they will be ‘all in’ here trying to get a win against Memphis. This is a Memphis team that only beat lowly South Alabama 52-35 as 31.5-point home favorites last week. If South Alabama can hang, I certainly believe Tulane can at home. And Memphis lost its only road game this year 21-22 at Navy, getting upset at 6.5-point favorites. The Tigers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring 50 points or more. The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in home games off a non-conference game over the last 3 years. Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 home games overall. Take Tulane.
|09-22-18||TCU v. Texas +3.5||16-31||Win||100||7 h 18 m||Show|
6* TCU/Texas Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Texas +3.5
The Key: The Texas Longhorns are ready to take the next step this season. They beat USC 37-14 at home last week and now they host TCU for their Big 12 opener looking to make a statement. They get the Horned Frogs at a great time, too. TCU will still be licking its wounds from a tough loss to Ohio State last week. I love backing Texas head coach Tom Herman in the underdog role. He has gone 21-1 ATS as an underdog lifetime as a head coach or an assistant coach in his 4 different stops. Take Texas.
|09-22-18||Kansas v. Baylor -7.5||7-26||Win||100||6 h 23 m||Show|
6* Kansas/Baylor Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Baylor -7.5
The Key: I love the price we are getting with the Baylor Bears at home today against the Kansas Jayhawks. Baylor is coming off an upset home loss to Duke, while Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins over Central Michigan and Rutgers. That’s why we are getting the Bears so cheap today. Baylor went into Kansas and won 38-9 last year. And the Bears are much better this season than they were a year ago. Baylor is now 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings, winning by 29, 42, 59, 46, 45 and 27 points, respectively. Expect another blowout win in the Bears’ favor here Saturday. Take Baylor.
|09-22-18||Clemson -16 v. Georgia Tech||Top||49-21||Win||100||6 h 18 m||Show|
7* ACC Game of the Month on Clemson -16
The Key: The Clemson Tigers aren’t laying enough points to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. That’s largely due to the fact that they are 0-3 ATS on the season, costing bettors money up to this point. But I think the price is right to back them now here in a game they should win by 3 touchdowns and finally cash in a winning ticket. They have owned Georgia Tech in recent seasons, holding them to a combined 17 points in the last 2 meetings. They have figured out how to stop the triple-option, and they are coming off a dominant 38-7 win over Georgia Southern and their triple-option last week, giving them great preparation for this game Saturday. The Tigers have held the Yellow Jackets to just 121 yards per game and 2.9 yards per rush on the ground in their last 3 meetings with them. Georgia Tech lost 1,000-yard rusher KirVonte Benson a few weeks back against USF, and it’s no wonder they are coming off back-to-back losses as they fell to Pitt last week as well. This should be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 31-7 victory Saturday, if not worse. Take Clemson.
|09-22-18||Akron v. Iowa State -20||13-26||Loss||-108||3 h 48 m||Show|
6* Saturday NCAAF *BLOWOUT* on Iowa State -20
The Key: Akron is coming off a huge upset win over Northwestern as 21-point underdogs last week. They looked left for dead trailing 21-3 at halftime. But then the craziness happened. The Zips got 3 defensive touchdowns in the 2nd half and won 39-34. Now they’re in a big letdown spot here against a hungry Iowa State team that is looking for its first win. The Cyclones have played a brutal early schedule losing on the road at Iowa and at home to Oklahoma as dogs. They will get right here against an Akron team they beat 41-14 on the road last season. The Cyclones should have no problem winning this game by 3 touchdowns or more. Iowa State is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Cyclones are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. MAC opponents. Akron is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games off an upset win as a double-digit underdog. The Zips are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a road win. Take Iowa State.
|09-22-18||Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7||56-27||Loss||-110||3 h 47 m||Show|
6* Notre Dame/Wake Forest *CA$H COW* on Wake Forest +7
The Key: Notre Dame is probably the most overrated team in the country. The Fighting Irish are 3-0 but could easily be 0-3. All 3 of their victories have come by 8 points or less, including a 24-16 win over Ball State as 33.5-point favorites and a 22-17 win over Vanderbilt as 13.5-point favorites. Now the Fighting Irish hit the road for the first time this season against a pesky Wake Forest team that nearly beat Boston College at home last time out, losing 34-41. And the Demon Deacons have had a couple extra days to prepare for Notre Dame after playing BC last Thursday. Wake hung tough in a 37-48 loss at Notre Dame as 14.5-point underdogs last season. They managed 587 total yards against the Notre Dame defense in the loss. The Demon Deacons once again have an explosive offense this season that is averaging 36 PPG and 547 YPG on the year. The Demon Deacons are 11-3 ATS as underdogs over the last 3 seasons. The Fighting Irish are 1-8 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 75% of their games over the last 3 years. They are also 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record overall. Take Wake Forest.
|09-21-18||Florida Atlantic +13.5 v. Central Florida||Top||36-56||Loss||-105||5 h 14 m||Show|
7* FAU/UCF ESPN Friday Night Lights on Florida Atlantic +13.5
The Key: I think UCF is overvalued due to having not lost a game since 2016. And I think losing their game last week due to weather is a bad thing for them. FAU is a team that returned 16 starters this year including 10 on defense. The Owls have been tested as they’ve already played Oklahoma and Air Force. They have had this game circled on their calendars and should put forth a home run effort. UCF has not been tested yet playing Upon and South Carolina State. The UConn put up 486 total yards on this UCF defense. The Owls should have plenty of success with their running game, which is elite. The Knights have allowed 198 rushing yards per game in their two games against awful competition. The Owls are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Knights are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. Take Florida Atlantic.
|09-15-18||Ohio State v. TCU +14||Top||40-28||Win||100||19 h 30 m||Show|
7* Ohio State/TCU Top 25 *HEAVY HITTER* on TCU +14
The Key: TCU is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog under Gary Patterson. And now Patterson is catching two touchdowns against Ohio State Saturday. The Horned Frogs are licking their chops at the opportunity to face the Buckeyes. Remember, a few years back Ohio State was the team that got into the four-team playoff to knock TCU out of it even though the Horned Frogs deserved to be in. Patterson and company have not forgotten. The Horned Frogs play too good defensively to not be competitive here. And their offense is better than it’s getting credit for with Shawn Robinson at QB. Even though this is technically a neutral field, it’s not far from TCU’s campus in Arlington and it will be a TCU-heavy crowd. Take TCU.
|09-15-18||Boise State +110 v. Oklahoma State||21-44||Loss||-100||15 h 49 m||Show|
6* Boise State/Oklahoma State *CA$H COW* on Boise State ML +110
The Key: Oklahoma State lost all of its stars on offense from last season. The Cowboys won’t be that good on offense this season because of it. But they haven’t been exposed yet because of the ease of their schedule getting to host both Missouri State as a 45-point favorite and South Alabama as a 30-point favorite. But now they will get exposed against Boise State, which returns 16 starters this season and is the best Group of 5 team in the country. The Broncos won 56-20 at Troy and 62-7 at home over UConn to prove they are for real. Those are two better opponents than Oklahoma State has faced this season. The offense is humming with 59 PPG and 617 YPG, and the defense is dynamite with 10 returning starters and allowing 13.5 PPG and 286 YPG thus far. Brian Harsin is 10-2 ATS as an underdog in all games as a head coach. Take Boise State on the Money Line.
|09-15-18||Oklahoma v. Iowa State +19||37-27||Win||100||11 h 15 m||Show|
6* Oklahoma/Iowa State Big 12 *CA$H COW* on Iowa State +19
The Key: Oklahoma is the flavor of the week right now with its 63-14 win over Florida Atlantic and 49-21 win over UCLA to open the season. Iowa State has only played one game, and it was an ugly 3-13 loss at Iowa. I think we’re getting a few too many points here with the Cyclones at home. They are different animal on their home field and proved that they once again have a great defense by limiting Iowa to just 271 total yards. They will be able to limit Oklahoma this week. The Cyclones pulled the 38-31 upset in Oklahoma as 30-point underdogs last season. They also only lost 24-34 at home to Oklahoma in 2016 as 21-point dogs. This game will be closer than expected. The Cyclones are 11-2 ATS in Saturday games over the last 2 seasons. The Cyclones are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games played on a grass field. The Cyclones are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Sooners are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Take Iowa State.
|09-15-18||Rutgers +125 v. Kansas||14-55||Loss||-100||11 h 14 m||Show|
6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Rutgers ML +125
The Key: Kansas just ended a 46-game road losing streak with a win at Central Michigan last week. That followed up a ugly home loss to FCS opponent Nicholls State. I think the Jayhawks are actually better on the road because they get away from home, where there’s a lot of negativity to surround the program. Fans will be quick to boo them this week if it goes south again. I think Rutgers is the more talented of these two teams. They were beaten badly by Ohio State last week on the road, otherwise they wouldn’t be underdogs here. Kansas is overvalued off its road win against a bad CMU team. Rutgers is 33-16 ATS in its last 49 non-conference road games. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Big 12 opponents. The Jayhawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. Kansas is also 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS win. Take Rutgers on the Money Line.
|09-15-18||Georgia Southern +33 v. Clemson||7-38||Win||100||11 h 14 m||Show|
6* Saturday NCAAF Dog of the Day on Georgia Southern +33
The Key: I expect Clemson to be sleep-walking through this game Saturday morning. They are coming off a huge 28-26 win at Texas A&M, and they have their ACC opener against Georgia Tech on deck next week. They just want to get out of here with a win against Georgia Southern. I think Georgia Southern will play this game closer than expected. They beat South Carolina State 37-6 as 28.5-point favorites and UMass 34-13 as 1.5-point favorites. They have 18 starters back from last year and have been notorious for giving Power 5 programs fits through the years with their triple option. Georgia Southern lost in OT to Georgia in 2015, had a one-point road loss to NC State in 2014, and lost by only 4 points at Georgia Tech in 2014. They also stunned Florida in Gainesville in 2013. The Eagles are averaging 326 rushing yards per game this season and their triple-option will give Clemson a hard time here. Take Georgia Southern.
|09-08-18||Penn State v. Pittsburgh +7.5||51-6||Loss||-105||11 h 17 m||Show|
6* Penn State/Pitt ABC *CA$H COW* on Pittsburgh +7.5
The Key: Penn State needing overtime in Week 1 to beat Appalachian State 45-38 as 24-point favorites is a telling sign of things to come for the Nittany Lions. They lost a ton of playmakers on offense, and Trace McSorley was fortunate to bring them back for a win in the final seconds and in OT. But the more concerning thing is a defense that gave up 38 points to the Mountaineers and returns just 3 starters from last year. Pitt doesn’t have an explosive offense, but even they should be able to move the football and score points on this Penn State defense. The Panthers do have a great defense, however, with 9 returning starters. This should be Pat Narduzzi’s best defense yet in his 4th year at Pitt. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take Pittsburgh.
|09-08-18||Clemson v. Texas A&M +12||28-26||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
6* Clemson/Texas A&M ESPN *CA$H COW* on Texas A&M +12
The Key: I like the fact that Jimbo Fisher knows Clemson well after coaching against them every year in the ACC at Florida State. Fisher knows what it takes to beat Dabo Swinney and company. And Fisher stepped into a great situation at Texas A&M with 16 returning starters, including QB Kellen Mond, who was offered by Clemson coming out of high school. The Aggies made easy work of Northwestern State 59-7 last Thursday, outgaining them by 507 total yards. And now they’ve had a few extra days to prepare for Clemson, which played on Saturday. This will be the toughest game of the regular season for the Tigers as the 12th Man at Kyle Field is no joke. The Aggies are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 September games, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Take Texas A&M.
|09-08-18||Georgia v. South Carolina +10.5||Top||41-17||Loss||-110||7 h 48 m||Show|
7* Georgia/South Carolina SEC Game of the Month on South Carolina +10.5
The Key: South Carolina finally has a team that is capable of competing with Georgia. The Gamecocks believe they are good enough to challenge the Bulldogs for an SEC East title this season. They get their chance to prove it on the field at home Saturday in what will be a hostile environment. The Gamecocks are 7-1-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games. South Carolina is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games off a win by more than 20 points. The Gamecocks are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. This is the best team that Will Muschamp has had yet at South Carolina, especially offensively with a great QB and two amazing playmakers at RB & WR. Take South Carolina.
|09-08-18||Buffalo +4.5 v. Temple||36-29||Win||100||7 h 38 m||Show|
6* Saturday NCAAF Dog of the Day on Buffalo +4.5
The Key: I believe Buffalo has a better team than Temple this season and that will show on the field Saturday. Buffalo has 14 returning starters and one of the more underrated QB/WR combos in the country with Tyree Jackson and Anthony Johnson, who had 76 receptions for 1,356 yards and 14 touchdowns last year. The Bulls rolled Delaware State 48-10 in their opener. Temple lost 17-19 at home to Villanova as 14.5-point favorites, a sign of bad things to come for the Owls this year. They have just 12 returning starters and lose each of their top two receivers from a year ago. Not only did they get beat by Villanova, they got dominated statistically by getting outgained by 154 yards. Their offense is clearly in trouble after amassing just 251 total yards against Villanova. The Bulls are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 September games. The Owls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 September games. Temple is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 vs. MAC opponents. Take Buffalo.
|09-08-18||Kansas +4 v. Central Michigan||31-7||Win||100||6 h 18 m||Show|
6* Saturday NCAAF *Upset Special* on Kansas +4
The Key: Central Michigan is a rebuilding team this year that returns only 10 starters and loses stud QB Shane Morris. Their game against Kentucky wasn’t as close as the 20-35 final would indicate last week. They were outgained by 172 yards in that matchup. Kansas was upset 23-26 by Nicholls State in overtime, but that’s a great FCS program and the Jayhawks were single-digit favorites. Nicholls State has given Georgia and Texas A&M fits in recent years, so it wasn’t much of an upset and it’s getting overblown. This is still the best team that David Beatty has had at Kansas yet with 19 returning starters in his 4th season. I believe they go on the road and get an ‘upset’ victory against this inexperienced Chippewas squad. Take Kansas.
|09-07-18||TCU -22 v. SMU||Top||42-12||Win||100||9 h 53 m||Show|
7* TCU/SMU NCAAF Friday Night Lights on TCU -22
The Key: The TCU Horned Frogs have owned the SMU Mustangs in recent years. TCU has won the last 5 meetings by more than 31 PPG on average. And that should be about the margin of victory for this year’s matchup. TCU is another Big 12 title contender with an elite defense and an improved offense under a new QB. And SMU is certainly going to take a step back now that Chad Morris is gone after improving dramatically under him and actually making a bowl last year. But they lost that bowl by 41 points with Sonny Dykes at the helm, and they were blasted by 23 points at North Texas in Week 1 in Dykes’ first official first game as head coach last week. The Mustangs are in for a rude awakening tonight. Take TCU.
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State||24-3||Win||100||7 h 23 m||Show|
6* VA Tech/FSU ACC *CA$H COW* on Virginia Tech +7.5
The Key: It’s going to take some time for Florida State to get used to new head coach Willie Taggart’s systems. They are talented on offense and will eventually be great, but I’m expecting plenty of mistakes form them in the opener. And defensively is where they have the biggest questions because they return just 4 starters on D. I trust Justin Fuente, who enters is 3rd season in Blacksburg and has already guided the Hokies to 10 and 9-win seasons in his first 2 years. He has 12 returning starters to work with in 2018, including 7 on offense. Bud Foster’s defense gave up just 14.8 PPG last year, so even though they lose some guys, they will be good again because they are every year. The Seminoles are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games. FSU is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. The Hokies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Take Virginia Tech.