Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-10-18 | Mariners v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Gerrit Cole has been tremendous this year. While his recent results don't look quite as dominant, a closer look shows he is still throwing the ball really well. Cole has a FIP of 2.44 or lower in each of his last five starts. He has been hurt by some tough batted ball luck and a low strand rate. He's still racking up huge strikeout numbers and doing a good job minimizing hard contact. Mike Leake has produced a quality start in 11 of his last 14 starts. Leake has no walks in his last three starts combined. Leake is backed by a quality bullpen on the Mariners side. The Astros bullpen is arguably the best in baseball. Houston is without Altuve and Springer right now, and that certainly holds their offense back. Doug Eddings is behind home plate, and he is the single best under umpire in baseball. He has the highest strikes called rate of any umpire in three straight seasons. Take the under. | |||||||
08-09-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 8-5 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies both come into this game struggling of late on offense. The Dodgers have scored 2 runs or less in six of their last ten games. The Rockies have scored 3 runs or less in six of their last eight games. The Rockies are an elite offense against left handed pitching. In fact, Colorado is second in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Rockies aren't very good against right handed pitching though. They are 20th in wOBA against right handed pitching. They face a good right hander in Ross Stripling here. The Dodgers are elite against right handed pitching. They are 2nd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. The Dodgers are only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Tyler Anderson has an impressive 3.48 ERA and 1.263 WHIP at Coors Field in his career. Ross Stripling has a 2.25 ERA in 12 innings at Coors Field. Both of these guys are solid pitchers. The under is 5-0 in the Dodgers last 5 road games. The under is 4-0-1 in Anderson's last 5 home starts. Take the under. | |||||||
08-08-18 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Phillies rank in the bottom ten in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Diamondbacks rank in the bottom 6 in the league in wOBA against right handed pitching. Patrick Corbin has a 3.31 ERA on the year, and he has actually been very unlucky. Corbin has a FIP of only 2.55 on the season. Corbin had a solid swinging strike rate of 11.0% last year, but it has jumped to a really impressive 14.7% this year. His slider has been tremendous this season. Corbin is up against a Phillies lineup that strikes out a bunch. Vincent Velasquez came back from injury on July 11. Since then, Velasquez has allowed a grand total of 2 runs in 25 and 1/3 innings. His hard hit percentage is way down this year, so he is inducing more soft contact. Only 5.7% of batted balls against him have been barreled. The under is 6-0 in Velasquez's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Arizona. The under is 6-0 in the Phillies last 6 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Phillies last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 20-0 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
08-07-18 | Cubs v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Brad Keller has pitched pretty well for the Royals this year. Keller has a good sinking fastball which has helped him keep the ball in the park thus far. As long as he has his command, he should continue to be good at suppressing home runs. Keller has done an excellent job avoiding hard contact. Only 10 out of 222 batted balls have been barreled according to Baseball Savant. That puts Keller in the top 4% of pitchers in baseball. He's doing a great job forcing soft contact. Mike Montgomery is an underrated starter who does enough to help his team win. The Cubs bullpen is strong and many of their best guys should be available on Tuesday. Doug Eddings is the umpire here, and he is clearly the biggest under umpire in baseball. He's had the highest percentage of strikes called of any umpire for three straight seasons. He's a big help to both pitchers here. Take the under. | |||||||
08-06-18 | Cubs v. Royals OVER 9 | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Royals start Jakob Junis in this one. They host the Chicago Cubs in an interleague battle. The Cubs are one the rare NL teams who have plenty of depth to add a hitter and still be strong from top to bottom in the lineup. Junis has had problems with the home run ball this year. He is giving up a whopping 2.02 homers per nine innings. Junis isn't pitching well of late. He's allowed 5 runs or more in less than 6 innings pitched in 5 of his last 8 starts. Cole Hamels isn't the pitcher he used to be. Hamels has a home run problem as well, and he is very inconsistent. The weather here is calling for a temperature of 92 degrees at gametime and winds blowing out at 10 mph. These are perfect conditions for an over. The Royals bullpen is arguably the worst in the majors and Junis doesn't usually pitch deep in the game. The Cubs could put up a big number here. Take the over. | |||||||
08-05-18 | Royals v. Twins UNDER 9 | 5-6 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* Bill Miller has been one of the best under umpires in baseball for many years. Miller has an all-time under rate of 55.4% and he's always at or near the top of the strikeouts/walk ratio leaderboard and the overall percentage of strikes called. Miller is a big under umpire. Sunday is a get away day and there are more unders on Sunday in MLB in general. The under is a whopping 43-15-1 in Miller's last 59 Sunday games. Danny Duffy has been coming around of late. Duffy has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of his last 13 starts. He's gone 6 innings or more in 10 of those 13 starts. Duffy also has a spectacular 2.21 ERA in 102 innings against the Twins. Duffy has an even better 1.79 ERA at Target Field. Ervin Santana starts for the Twins here, and he has a brilliant 2.78 ERA in 11 career starts with Bill Miller behind home plate. The Twins rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. The Royals rank in the bottom three in wOBA against right handed pitching. Take the under. | |||||||
08-01-18 | Mercury v. Aces OVER 172.5 | 104-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The angle here is back to back game overs. Phoenix is on the second end of a back to back and they are the road team. The over is 104-60 in the last 164 games when the road team is coming off a loss and are on a back to back spot. If we drill it down even more: both the home and road teams have had 53% or less of their games go over the total on the season- the result is 45 overs and 17 unders. In conference games only in that scenario the record is 26 overs and 7 unders. It's clear that road teams on back to back spots helps the over. Las Vegas plays at the fastest pace in the WNBA, and they play quite a bit faster at home. The Aces have seen their home games be much higher scoring than their road games on average. Take the over here. | |||||||
07-31-18 | Angels v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 6-10 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Angels traded away Ian Kinsler and Martin Maldonado already. This lineup wasn't particularly deep to start with, and now they are even less so. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, but the lineup around him isn't very good. Stanek starts here for the Rays, and he has been superb. He obviously won't be in the game long, but Yarbrough is expected to come in after him and he's a solid lefty. The Angels rank in the bottom five in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Tyler Skaggs has been tremendous this year for the Angels. Skaggs has allowed 2 runs or less in 15 of his 19 starts this year. Skaggs had a swinging strike rate of only 8.1% last year, but it has jumped to 11.4% this year. The Stanek-Yarbrough combination the Rays have used consistently has been very good for the under. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games with these two being used back to back. The under is 5-0-1 in the Rays last 6 vs. the AL West. The under is 4-0 in the Angels last 4 during game one of a series. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
07-30-18 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks OVER 8.5 | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Robbie Ray is a really inconsistent pitcher. He's very capable of firing a great game and shutting a team down, but he's also very capable of getting shelled. More often than not he's been hit hard at home. The over is 24-7-1 in his last 32 starts at home. It's very common to see a pitcher with an ERA much better at home than on the road, but Ray is the opposite in a big way. Ray has a 3.18 career ERA on the road. His career home ERA is 5.28. His ERA is nearly a full run worse in the second half of the season as well. Martin Perez has a 7.08 ERA and a 6.36 FIP on the season. Perez is a below average lefty, and the DBacks have been very good against lefties all year (they are bad against righties). The Rangers bullpen has been used heavily of late. The Rangers and Dbacks both rank in the top 12 in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Both of these bullpens rank among the five worst in the majors in the last month. I think there is blowup potential with both of these starters and I'll take the over at this relatively low number. Take the over. | |||||||
07-26-18 | A's v. Rangers OVER 11 | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total DOMINATION* The Texas Rangers pitching staff is struggling in a big way, and that is putting it nicely. Texas has allowed 13 runs or more in 3 of their last 6 games. The Rangers bullpen is stretched to the limit right now. The starters have been so bad that the entire bullpen is gassed. Bartolo Colon has been in very poor form of late. Colon has allowed 7 hits or more in 6 of his last 7 starts. He has gone 5 innings or less in 5 of his last 9 starts. Colon is giving up more hard contact this year than he has in any other season in his career. He has a home run problem, especially at home, and the Athletics lineup is extremely powerful. Oakland ranks first in weighted on base average on the road and ISO on the road. The A's start Trevor Cahill in this one and while he has been lights out at a home, he has been very hittable on the road. Cahill has a 5.92 ERA on the road this season. His road ERA last year was 7.07. The temperature at game time here is expected to be 101 degrees. In the Ballpark at Arlington- the over is 34-22 in the last 56 with an average temperature of 96 degrees or higher in the game (this one should fit). Take the over. | |||||||
07-24-18 | Astros v. Rockies UNDER 10 | 8-2 | Push | 0 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies have been great against lefties this year, but they aren't good against right handed pitching. Gerrit Cole has been an elite right hander this year. His swinging strike rate is above 14%, which is tremendous. Cole has allowed 1 run or less in 10 of his 20 starts this year. He hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in a game all season. Houston's bullpen is first in the majors in FIP and SIERA. This is a deep bullpen that comes into this series well rested. Tyler Anderson has been spectacular for the Rockies. Anderson is a great combination of a high swinging strike rate and an ability to induce soft contact. In his career, he has a very good 3.58 ERA at Coors Field. Anderson has a 4.32 ERA in the first half of the season in his career, and a much better 3.20 ERA in the second half of the season. He's been locked in of late. The under is 5-0 in the Astros last 5 interleague road games. The under is 5-0 in the Rockies last 5 vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 starts. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 home starts. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
07-23-18 | White Sox v. Angels OVER 9 | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Lucas Giolito's stats look better on the surface of late, but if you take a deeper dive you'll see he's just getting fortunate with batted balls in play. Giolito has allowed a batting average on balls in play of .158, .154, and .100 in the three games he has pitched well in lately (2, 1, and 0 runs allowed). On the season, Giolito has a 6.18 ERA and a 6.14 FIP and 6.21 xFIP. He's been one of the worst starters in the majors. The Angels offense has struggled badly against lefties (27th in majors in wOBA), but they are solid against right handed pitching (7th in majors in wOBA). Jaime Barria is due for regression. Barria has a 3.55 ERA and a 4.84 FIP. Barria has stranded 83.3% of runners on the season which isn't something he can keep up long term. His exit velocity allowed is 89.9 mph, so hitters are hitting the ball very hard against him. These two bullpens both rank in the bottom 8 in the past month, so I expect late scoring chances as well. Take the over. | |||||||
07-21-18 | White Sox v. Mariners OVER 9 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* Dylan Covey has a brutal 8.92 ERA on the road in his career. Covey has been terrible in his last few starts. He hasn't pitched more than 5 innings in any of his last 5 games and he has allowed 4 runs or more in each of those starts. He has walked 15 batters and has only 10 strikeouts during that span. Covey comes into this one in really bad form. Felix Hernandez is far from the pitcher he once was. Hernandez is allowing more hard hit balls than he has in any other season in his career. He is coming off the DL and pitchers often aren't sharp in that first game back. There have been at least 11 runs scored total in Covey's last four starts. The White Sox bullpen has a 6.62 ERA in the past 30 days, so they are unlikely to provide much relief here. Covey could give up a big number here, and Hernandez is shaky at this point as well. There is value on the over in this contest. Take the over. | |||||||
07-11-18 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers offense has been good in the last couple months, but they are much better against right handed pitching than left handed pitching. The Dodgers are 4th in weighted on base average at .332 against righties, but they are 15th against lefties at .313. The Padres offense is bad against all pitching, but they are especially bad against right handed pitching. San Diego is dead last in the majors with a weighted on base average of just .287 against righties. Joey Lucchesi had one bad start after coming back from the DL, but since then he has been pretty sharp. Lucchesi has a deceptive delivery and hitters have had a hard time sizing him up. Kenta Maeda has allowed only 3 earned runs in his last 3 starts combined. Maeda excels at forcing hitters into weak contact. Ben May has turned into an excellent under umpire. He has called 64.75% of pitches a strike so far this year. He called 65.17% of pitches a strike last year. The average is right around 63.50%. May is a strike caller. Take the under. | |||||||
07-11-18 | Phillies v. Mets UNDER 7 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Vince Velasquez has pitched significantly better away from Philadelphia. Velasquez is prone to allowing home runs, and Citizens Bank Park has hurt him because of that. Velasquez has a 6.16 ERA and has allowed 11 home runs at home this year. He has a 2.79 ERA and has allowed 2 homers on the road. Citi Field is definitely a pitcher friendly park. Jacob Degrom has been amazing this year. Degrom has always been very good, but his number are tremendous this year. Degrom has racked up a ridiculous 15.6% swinging strike rate so far this year. On 252 batted balls off Degrom, only 10 balls have been barreled, a great 3.6% rate. Degrom is a rare combination of strikeout pitcher and soft contact inducing pitcher. Degrom has a 0.90 WHIP at home this year. Both of these offenses have been struggling of late. Dan Bellino is the home plate umpire and the under is 12-1 in his 13 games behind the dish this year. The under is 6-0 in Degrom's last 6 starts vs. an NL East team. An 18-1 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
07-09-18 | A's v. Astros OVER 8 | 2-0 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Athletics rank second in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. Oakland has a much deeper lineup than an average team. The A's have a nice mix of power hitters and contact hitters. The Houston Astros offense ranks in the top five in the majors. In the last month, they have been great. Frankie Montas is striking out less than 6 batters per nine innings. He's also giving up a ton of hard contact. In fact, 49.4% of batted balls have been labeled as hard hit against Montas this year. His home run rate is too low and should regress to the mean. He hasn't been fooling people of late. Gerrit Cole started the season pitching extremely well. He's been mediocre of late. Cole allowed 3 runs or more in only one of his first eight starts. In his last 10 starts, he has allowed 3 runs or more on 6 occasions. His exit velocity he's allowed is moving up, and his walk rate is much higher in recent outings. The over is 7-0 in the A's last 7 vs. an AL West team. The over is 6-0 in Montas' last 6 starts. The over is 7-0 in the Astros last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Cole's last 5 starts at home. A 25-0 angle. Take the over. | |||||||
07-08-18 | Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 8-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The San Francisco Giants start Madison Bumgarner on Sunday. Bumgarner started out a bit slowly after he came back from his long DL stint at the start of the season, but he has been much better of late. Bumgarner has allowed 3 runs in his last 21 innings combined. Jack Flaherty has been terrific this year. Flaherty has a swinging strike rate of 12.7%, which shows he's fooling a lot of hitters. Flaherty throws 93 and 94 mph on the fastball, but he has very good movement on that pitch. He does a nice job limiting hard contact as well. Both of these offense rate in the mediocre category when you look at the advanced data. Sunday has been easily the best under day in baseball in the long run, and we have a solid under umpire here in Brian O'Nora. His strikeout/walk ratio is easily over 3 this year. The under is 12-3-1 in O'Nora's last 16 Sunday games behind home plate. Both teams have some nice under trends. The under is 5-0-1 in Flaherty's last 6 road starts. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 last starts vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The under is 5-0-1 in Bumgarner's last 6 when the Giants are coming off a loss. The under is 4-0 in Bumgarner's last 4 home starts. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
07-06-18 | Braves v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 4-5 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Mike Foltynewicz and Freddy Peralta have both been spectacular this year. Foltynewicz has broken out in a big way this year. He's always been a guy that was expected to be very good, but he hasn't proven it until this year. Foltynewicz has allowed 1 run or less in 9 of his last 11 starts. That's tremendous consistency from the Braves right hander. He does a good job at limiting hard contact, and his swinging strike rate is higher this year than at any other time in his career. Freddy Peralta is a youngster who has been dominant so far this year. Peralta has a ridiculous strikeout rate of 13.01 strikeouts per nine innings. He has an amazing 14.1% swinging strike rate. Peralta has allowed no runs in 3 of his 5 starts so far this year. The Braves have been elite against lefties so far this year, but they have been mediocre against righties. The under is a whopping 20-5-1 in the Brewers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 85-40-5 in the Brewers last 130 games vs. a right handed starter. The under is 3-0-1 in Foltynewicz's last 4 starts vs. Milwaukee. Take the under. | |||||||
07-06-18 | Rays v. Mets UNDER 7 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Jacob Degrom has been tremendous all year. Degrom is getting an amazing 15.5% swinging strikes this year. That's among the best in the majors. Add in that hitters are only making hard contact 29.2% of the time on batted balls off Degrom and you have an elite pitcher. The Tampa Bay offense is one of the worst in the majors, and they'll be minus a hitter here. The Rays have scored 3 runs or less in 6 of their last 8 games. Tampa Bay is worse against right handed pitching, and Degrom is one of the best in the majors. New York's offense hasn't been good either. Ryne Stanek is the opening pitcher for the Rays here, and this opening pitcher strategy has worked great for the Rays. Tampa Bay's bullpen ERA is the best in baseball since they started this new method. The weather here is a big help with winds blowing in at about 13-15 mph. Citi Field is a pitcher's park to start with, and winds do make a big difference here as well. Take the under. | |||||||
07-04-18 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 8-4 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Diamondbacks rank 27th in weighted on base average in the majors so far this year against right handed pitching. Arizona has a weak bottom of the order and that has hurt them quite a bit this year. While St. Louis has been decent against right handed pitching, the Cardinals rank 21st in weighted on base average against lefties this year. Miles Mikolas is only walking 1.13 batters per nine innings this year. Minimizing walks to that degree can really help in limiting damage. Mikolas has also gotten a lot of softly hit fly balls. Patrick Corbin has been great this year. Corbin has 1 walk and 17 strikeouts in his last two starts. Corbin is using his slider much more this year, and it is a great pitch. In 8 of his 17 starts so far this year, Corbin has allowed 1 run or less. Tony Randazzo has been striking guys out at a really high rate this year behind the plate, and he should help both pitchers in this one. Take the under. | |||||||
07-04-18 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Colorado Rockies host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night. Colorado has bounced back in the last few games, and it has been largely because they have gotten a lot more length out of their starting pitchers and their bullpen isn't so gassed. Colorado has a couple good bullpen arms in Ottovino (excellent) and Davis. Both of those guys are well rested for this game and that is important. Tyler Anderson has thrown the ball well of late, and his career ERA at Coors Field is better than his ERA on the road. Anderson is good at creating soft contact, and that helps a lot here. Andrew Suarez has pitched into some bad luck this year, but he's a solid youngster as well. Suarez is pitching his best in recent games, and if his batting average on balls in play regresses to the mean, his ERA should drop in the long run as well. Bill Miller is the umpire here and he is definitely one of the best under umpires in the business. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently one of the highest in the majors. The weather calls for winds blowing in from center field at about 10 mph here also. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 against a lefty. The under is 3-0-1 in Suarez's last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 vs. the NL West. The under is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 after scoring five runs or more last game. The under is 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
07-01-18 | Pirates v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching at a miserable level of .286. The Pirates rank 23rd in the same category. Pittsburgh has hit lefties well, but right handed pitching has been a problem for them. Jameson Taillon is a very solid pitcher who limits the free passes he gives up. Taillon has a 2.87 ERA in 17 career day games. Tyson Ross has a career ERA of 2.91 at Petco Park. This is one of the best parks in the majors for pitchers. The Padres bullpen ranks 10th best in the majors for the season in SIERA and the Pirates rank 10th best. These are two very good bullpens. Sunday is the best under day by a wide margin in the majors overall in the past 15 years. These afternoon games to finish off a series can lead to some key hitters getting the day off. Take the under here. | |||||||
06-29-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Colorado Rockies are 5th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties. Colorado is only 23rd in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitchers. The Rockies go against lefty Rich Hill in this one. Hill has struggled so far this season. He has gone less than six innings and allowed 3 runs or more in 5 of his 7 starts. He has already allowed 11 barreled hits in 97 batted balls, and he allowed just 10 of those in 240 batted balls two years ago. Batters are hitting the ball very hard against him. Tyler Anderson has allowed a very high .427 wOBA against the Dodgers in his career. Justin Turner has 10 hits in 18 at bats against him. Anderson has a 4.62 ERA and a 4.70 FIP so far this year. The Rockies bullpen has a ridiculous 7.90 ERA in the last month. The Dodgers bullpen is worn out. They have thrown the third most innings of any bullpen in the past month. Both teams hit lefties well and both lefties are vulnerable here. This is a low posted total given all these factors. The over is 4-0 in the Rockies last 4 Friday games. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts. The over is 5-0 in Anderson's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 4-0 in Hill's last 4 home starts. The over is 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the NL West. A 24-0 angle. Take the over. | |||||||
06-28-18 | Ottawa v. Calgary UNDER 57 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Taking unders early in the CFL season has been a very profitable system in the long run. That has been even more true when the totals are set high. In the first 6 games of the CFL season, games with a total of 53.5 or higher have gone under the total at a 60.6% clip since 2005. Calgary's defense has been tremendous early in the season, and Ottawa has been better on that side of the ball than in previous years as well. The fact that these teams have played high scoring games in the last few years against each other has propped up this number a bit too much. Some of those games were aided by overtime as well. This is a high number and I see value on the under. Take the under. | |||||||
06-27-18 | Yankees v. Phillies UNDER 9 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The Yankees have been on amazing under run of late. The under is 19-2 in the Yankees last 21 games. In a long season like the MLB season, you'll often find some trends like this that can continue for quite some time. I try not to fight those trends any more than I have to. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire for Wednesday night's contest between the Yankees and the Phillies, and Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in the majors. There's no other guy you'd want behind the plate for an under. Cessa is a middle of the road pitcher, but the Phillies offense is inconsistent. Cessa is backed by the best bullpen in the majors. Eflin has his swinging strike rate up to 10.1% this year. He's throwing harder and getting much softer contact. Only 28.2% of batted balls against him have been classified as hard hit. The under is 9-0 in the Yankees last 9 interleague games. The under is 6-0 in Cessa's last 6 starts. The under is 4-0 in the Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 6-0 in the Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of 60% or higher. A 25-0 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
06-26-18 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Ross Stripling has quickly turned into a terrific pitcher. A deep dive into his numbers shows a guy who is no fluke. Stripling is allowing only 25.7% of batted balls to be hit hard. He is also striking out 10.58 batters per nine innings. He is walking only 1.37 per nine innings. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his 10 starts so far this year. Jon Lester has allowed the Dodgers lineup to hit only .198 in his career. Lester has allowed 2 runs or less in 9 of his last 10 starts. The Dodgers and Cubs both have solid bullpens. Bill Miller is a tremendous under umpire. His strike zone is big to start with, and it expands with two strikes on the batter. That should be a big help to both of these pitchers who are good at nibbling at the corners. The under is 19-5-2 in Stripling's last 26 starts. The under is 22-8 in the Cubs last 30 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under. | |||||||
06-25-18 | Pirates v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | 6-4 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Mets offense has been dreadful of late. The Mets had one good series offensively in Colorado, but outside of that they have been really bad. The Mets rank dead last in the majors in weighted on base average at home (.279). That's easily worst in the majors. Brandon Nimmo has been the team's most consistent hitter, and he will likely miss this game after getting injured on Sunday. Cespedes continues to be out. Jay Bruce and Juan Lagares are out as well. The Pittsburgh Pirates have crushed lefties this year, but they are worse than the average big league team against right handed pitching. Jameson Taillon has been great on the road, and his advanced stats show he's thrown it better than his ERA would suggest. He's due for some positive regression. Seth Lugo has been nearly unhittable at home so far this year. Lugo's higher velocity combined with his excellent curveball make him a guy who should continue to have success. The wind is blowing in here at about 10 mph at Citi Field for this one. This is a park that has a great under record with the wind blowing in. The under is 4-0 in Lugo's last 4 home starts. The under is 5-0 in Taillon's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 vs. the NL East. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
06-24-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 9 | 8-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Milwaukee Brewers are expected to be without Lorenzo Cain and likely Ryan Braun for this series finale. The Cardinals are still without Paul DeJong as well. Jhoulys Chacin has a 2.31 ERA at home so far this year. Chacin has had some drastic home/road splits the last few years. Chacin is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball. The Brewers should have Josh Hader and Corey Knebel available for this one. Luke Weaver is due for some positive regression. Weaver has elite stuff and his advanced metrics suggest he is better than his ERA would make you think. With this being a Sunday afternoon game- don't be surprised if even a healthy key bat or two is missing from the lineup here. The under is 38-16-2 in Mike Winters' last 56 Sunday games behind the dish. Winters is a bit of an under umpire in general, and Sunday has been the best under day in MLB overall. Take the under. | |||||||
06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa UNDER 52 | 17-40 | Loss | -109 | 40 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Saskatchewan's offense is a big question mark. Zach Collaros hasn't proven himself, and this offense was brutal in the preseason. Though they scored 27 points in week one against Toronto, that total is misleading. Toronto's defense kept Saskatchewan drives alive many times with stupid penalties. Saskatchewan also had a pick six in the game. Ottawa's defense should be above average this year. They have a solid secondary and I see them giving Collaros trouble. Saskatchewan might not have the offensive pieces many other teams have, but they are very talented on defense. This game fits an under system for June-August in CFL. Taking the under with a total of 50.5 or higher and a spread of home team anywhere from -11.5 to +3 gets you 154 unders and just 94 overs (62.1% under). Take the under here. | |||||||
06-20-18 | A's v. Padres UNDER 8 | 12-4 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oakland Athletics go up against a young lefty in Joey Lucchesi for the Padres here. Oakland is 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties, and Lucchesi has a unique delivery that often catches people off guard the first few times they face him. Frankie Montas is a pretty highly rated prospect in the A's organization, and he starts this one for Oakland. San Diego is dead last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Not having seen Montas should be a negative for the Padres as well. This is a get away day game and that is a positive for the under. The pitcher batting for Oakland is a big positive here as well. Both of these teams have multiple key hitters out with injuries, and the short-handed lineups simply aren't very good. Take the under. | |||||||
06-19-18 | Red Sox v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Boston Red Sox start Chris Sale here. Sale is as dominant as any lefty in the game right now. Sale has a ridiculously high swinging strike rate of 15.4%. He is allowing far less hard contact than he did last year. Sale is also good at limiting his walks and making hitters beat him, and not too many can beat Sale when he is throwing it well. The Twins offense ranks 20th in the majors against left handed pitching according to weighted on base average. Minnesota has been terrible against lefties in the last month, and this is as tough of a matchup as they will ever get. Jose Berrios has been amazing at home in the last couple seasons. Berrios' swinging strike rate was only 9.4% last year, but it is all the way up at 11.8% this season. Berrios is walking only 1.51 batters per nine innings. His ERA is 3.51, but his FIP is 3.33 and his SIERA is 3.29. The under is 4-0 in the Red Sox last 4 following a day off. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. the AL Central. The under is 5-0 in the Red Sox last 5 in game one of a series. The under is 5-0 in Sale's last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the Twing last 4 games vs. a left handed starter. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
06-19-18 | Mariners v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Total PERFECTION* The New York Yankees have seen 12 straight games go under the total. The Yankees offense is still very good, but their totals have been set too high considering they have arguably the best bullpen in the majors and a quality starting staff too. Seattle's bullpen is top 6 in the majors in most statistics as well. The Mariners start Marco Gonzales here. Gonzales has been highly rated as a prospect for quite some time. He didn't throw it well in his first couple years in the bigs, but he has a very solid 3.42 ERA and a 3.20 FIP so far this season. Domingo German has a very high swinging strike rate of 15.6%. German has a lot of spin on his breaking ball, and his upside is high. The wind is blowing in for this contest. The under is 12-0 in the Yankees last 12 games. The under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a win. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 home games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series. The under is 4-0 in German's last 4 games. A 36-0 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
06-18-18 | Mets v. Rockies UNDER 9.5 | 12-2 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets haven't scored more than 5 runs in any of their last 15 games. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 12 of their last 15 contests. New York's offense has been woeful in recent weeks. The Mets aren't good offensively against either side, but they are woeful against left-handed pitching. The Mets have a .261 weighted on base average against lefties. That's worst in the majors by a mile. The second worst wOBA against lefties is the Marlins and they are at .291. Tyler Anderson has been good at Coors Field with a 3.73 ERA there in his career. Anderson has a high 12.1% swinging strike rate going so far this year. Jacob Degrom has been one of the top three pitchers in baseball so far this year. Degrom has been spectacular. He has a 1.55 ERA and a 1.98 FIP. His swinging strike rate is a ridiculous 15.1% on the season. Degrom has allowed 182 batted balls this year and according to Baseball Savant only 5 of those balls have been barreled. Degrom is getting lots of swings and misses and lots of weak contact. It's Coors Field and games can certainly get high scoring, but it helps to have wind blowing in at 10 mph here. The under is 7-0 in the Mets last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in Degrom's last 5 road starts. The under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. An 18-1 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
06-16-18 | Padres v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego Padres rank 29th out of 30 teams in the majors in weighted on base average on the road. The Braves have actually been better offensively on the road than at home. Atlanta has a very talented young offense, but they have been slumping a bit of late. The Braves have scored 3 runs or less in 5 of their last 8 contests. Sean Newcomb is more than capable of dominating a game. Newcomb sometimes struggles with walks, but having a major strike caller behind the plate in the form of home plate umpire Doug Eddings is a big help for him. Jordan Lyles has improved from last year, and I would expect him to be the type of guy who benefits from Eddings behind the plate as well. Eddings has called the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the last five years. The under is 12-5 in Newcomb's last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Take the under. | |||||||
06-14-18 | Indians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox start Carlos Rodon here. Rodon was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball a couple years ago. He's dealt with quite a few injuries, but he's been in great form in the minors this year, and his upside is tremendous. Rodon had a 1.42 ERA and averaged more than 15 strikeouts per nine innings in his 3 Triple A appearances earlier this year. He has held the Indians lineup to a very low .251 weighted on base average in his career. Mike Clevinger has proven to be a solid pitcher at this point in his career. He pitches fairly deep into the game and he's up against a White Sox lineup that is badly struggling right now. Clevinger has a terrific 3.06 ERA in day games in his career. The wind is blowing in about 8 mph for this one and the temperature is fairly moderate for this time of year. It's a get away day game where it is very likely we'll see some key players sitting this one out. The under is 4-0 in the White Sox last 4 home games. The under is 5-0-1 in their last 6 vs. the AL Central. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. A 16-0 angle combined. Take the under. | |||||||
06-13-18 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | 5-4 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks still rank second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching for the year. They have hit really well of late, but I don't think this is a good offense long-term without Pollock healthy. Jameson Taillon is an above average pitcher who has pitched into some bad luck so far this year. Taillon's velocity is up this year and so is his swinging strike rate. I expect him to have a solid season. Zack Greinke has been very good this year. Greinke isn't issuing many free passes at all, and this Pirates offense has been much better against lefties than righties. Both of these offenses are much better against lefties than righties, and both see a quality right handed starter here. Ryan Blakney is behind the plate and he's one of the best under umpires in the game. This is also a get away day game. Take the under. | |||||||
06-12-18 | Rockies v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -116 | 24 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Rockies offense has hit left handed pitching very well this year, but they have been bad against right handers. They face one of the top young right handed starters in the game now in Aaron Nola. The Phillies are also much better against left handed pitching. They are up against Jon Gray, who is a good pitcher and due for some positive regression. Gray has a 5.66 ERA, but an impressive 3.12 FIP and 3.21 xFIP. Gray is getting 12.2% swinging strikes this year, and all of his advanced statistics are the best they have been in his career. Nola has allowed more than 3 runs only one time this year. He has allowed 2 or less in 10 of his 13 starts. His consistency has been really impressive. I see a lower scoring game here with both starters throwing the ball well. Take the under. | |||||||
06-10-18 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves have crushed left handed pitching this year. The Braves are second in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Braves have been mediocre against righties this year. Ross Stripling has been as underrated as anyone in the majors so far this year. Stripling has a ridiculously low ERA and his FIP of 1.99 suggests it isn't just luck. Stripling mixes up his pitches well and gets a lot of late movement. Stripling has allowed just 5 runs in his last 35 innings pitched. Stripling has 4 walks and 47 strikeouts during that time. Sean Newcomb has been great for the Braves this year. Newcomb has allowed 1 run or less in 6 of his 12 starts this year. Bill Miller is the umpire here and he's a great under umpire. The under is 42-14 in Miller's last 56 Sunday games behind the plate. His strike percentage is one of the highest in the majors every year. Take the under. | |||||||
06-09-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12 | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Matt Koch's numbers in Triple A weren't good. In the majors, Koch has been fortunate and has a quality ERA. His advanced numbers suggest regression is coming as he continues to give up lots of hard contact and he can't miss bats often enough. Chad Bettis is much worse pitching at home compared to on the road. Bettis has a 5.48 ERA in his career at home. Bettis is another low strikeout guy, and his style of pitching doesn't match this ballpark well at all. The Rockies bullpen is worse without Ottavino. The DBacks bullpen and the Rockies bullpen have been used heavily of late. The temperature of 95 degrees during this game is a big positive for the over. That kind of heat at Coors Field is great for the ball to carry well. Both offenses appear to be breaking out of their funks, and I see this as a matchup of two very weak starters. Take the over. | |||||||
06-08-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* It's never easy to take an under at Coors Field, but this Rockies team is definitely different than Colorado teams from the past 10 years or so. They are much less of an offensive juggernaut now and they are winning a lot of games with pitching. German Marquez was a highly touted prospect all through his time in the minors. Marquez has thrown the ball really well in his last four games. His velocity is up quite a bit from last year, and he's starting to generate more swings and misses. Zack Greinke has pitched pretty well at Coors Field in his career. Greinke is having another very solid season this year and he's backed by a good bullpen. The DBacks are dead last at 30th in the majors in weighted on base average against righties. Teh Rockies aren't much better at 24th. The under is 9-3 in Marquez's last 12 home starts. The under is 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs. the DBacks. Take the under. | |||||||
06-07-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Vegas Golden Knights have to win to keep their season alive here. Vegas pushes the pace and in the first two games of this series played at Vegas there were all kinds of quality looks on goal. Washington has gotten great goalie play from Holtby, but they do still have questionable defense in front of Holtby. The Knights are having trouble with the Capitals offensive passing game around the net. Because of the importance of this game, a pulled goalie early leading to an easy score or two wouldn't be a surprise. Take the over. | |||||||
06-05-18 | Orioles v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New York Mets offense is expected to get Todd Frazier back in time for this game. That helps the middle of the order quite a bit. The Baltimore Orioles offense has been really inconsistent of late, but there's no doubt that this unit is much healthier and more dangerous now than they were earlier this year. Baltimore has been siginificantly better against lefties than righties. The Mets have been much better against right handed pitching than lefties. Jason Vargas and Alex Cobb have both thrown the ball poorly this year and are capable of giving up a bunch at any time. They are backed by two poor bullpens who are gassed right now. The Mets have allowed 7 runs or more in 5 of their last 10 games. With two subpar starters and two tired bullpens I like this one to go over. Take the over. | |||||||
06-03-18 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Indians offense has been tremendous of late. They have scored 9 runs or more on their own ten times in the past month alone. The Indians offense is getting great productivity at the top of the order and that is setting the table nicely. Kyle Gibson starts for the Twins, and while Gibson has been better this year, he's a very inconsistent pitcher, and his numbers both at home and against the Indians are terrible. In his career, Gibson has an awful 5.82 ERA against Cleveland. His ERA at home against Cleveland is just above 7. Gibson is worse at home and worse during the day in his career as well. Cleveland starts Mike Clevinger here, and he's been pretty good, but the bullpen has been the worst in the majors in the past month. They have been used heavily of late, and they are capable of giving up tons of runs in a hurry. The wind is expected to be blowing out at almost 20 mph for this one. Both offenses have the potential to put up a big number here. Take the over. | |||||||
06-02-18 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks have really struggled offensively this year. They have struggled the most at home at Chase Field. They are 28th in the majors in weighted on base average at home. The under is 18-10-2 in their home games this year. The humidor seems to be making a difference here, and now with Pollock out the Dbacks are without a top hitter. Zack Greinke is a really consistent pitcher. Greinke has a 3.65 ERA this year, but his xFIP is 3.18 and SIERA is 3.10- so he's been pretty unlucky. Greinke will face a Marlins lineup that is arguably the worst in the majors in this one. He's backed a DBacks bullpen that is a top six or eight bullpen in the majors. Caleb Smith has been a big surprise this year. Smith's stats are really impressive. He has worked at least 5 and 1/3 innings and allowed 2 runs or less in 6 of his last 7 starts. Smith is striking out ore than 11 batters per nine innings. Kerwin Danley is the umpire here. The under is a whopping 91-50 in his last 141 games behind home plate. He should help both pitchers by giving them the corners more than most umpires would. The under is 6-0-2 in the DBacks last 8 home games vs a left handed starter. The under is 5-0 in Greinke's last 5 starts overall. An 11-0 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
06-01-18 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Cubs offense has been great in the past month. Since May 7, the Cubs have scored 8 runs or more eight different times. The Cubs rank third in the majors in weighted on base average. Tyler Chatwood is on the mound here for the Cubs. Chatwood is walking more than 8 batters per nine innings. That's an outrageous number. He has walked five batters or more in 7 of his 10 starts this year. The Mets rank tenth best in the majors at drawing walks. Chatwood has a 4.75 FIP on the year and he has a SIERA above 6. He has been very fortunate with the lack of home runs allowed this season. That should regress toward the mean. Zack Wheeler has been inconsistent this year. Wheeler has an ERA over 5 and the Mets bullpen is absolutely gassed right now as well. The wind is expected to be blowing out about 6-8 mph here with a temperature of almost 80 degrees. Adrian Johnson is the home plate umpire and the over is 54.5% in his career behind home plate. Take the over. | |||||||
05-31-18 | Rays v. A's UNDER 8 | 3-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Red Hot CASH* The Oakland A's offense started the season on fire, but they have been in a terrible slump of late. In 6 of their last 9 games they have scored 2 runs or less. They haven't scored more than 4 runs in any of their last 9 games. Though Stanek is the starter here for Tampa Bay, it is expected that Ryan Yarbrough will come in and pitch the majority of this game. The Rays have successfully used this start the bullpen guy strategy and then use a young pitcher for the majority of the game. Yarbrough is a quality lefty who has good control and can induce a lot of soft contact. Oakland is 28th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The A's are also tied for last in weighted on base average in home games. Tampa Bay's offense should regress toward the mean over time. The Rays offense isn't as good as it has has looked so far this year. Their batting average on balls in play is second highest in the majors. Daniel Mengden averages less than one walk per game, and he has been locked in of late. I think he pitches well here. The under is 13-3 in the A's last 16 home games. The under is 4-0-1 in the Rays last 5 road games. Take the under. | |||||||
05-30-18 | Angels v. Tigers UNDER 9 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Shohei Ohtani has been tremendous so far this year. Ohtani faces a Tigers lineup that has been pretty good against lefties, but against right handed pitching they have really struggled this year. They are without their star in Miguel Cabrera. Ohtani's swinging strike rate is 15.4%, which is extremely high. He's fooling people badly, and I think he pitches well here. Mike Fiers is a bit of a wild card, but there are some factors to help him here. Fiers is a guy who nibbles at the corners a lot and Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here. Eddings calls more strikes than any other umpire in the majors. Fiers has a 0.59 ERA in 4 career appearances with Eddings behind home plate. The wind is expected to be blowing in from center field at a sustained rate of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph during this one. That's really significant at this ballpark. With this weather and a terrific under umpire, I like the value. Take the under. | |||||||
05-29-18 | Phillies v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* There are a few factors at work in this one. First, Kenta Maeda is absolutely dealing of late. Maeda has thrown shutouts in each of his last two starts. He has 4 walks and 20 strikeouts in those two starts. Maeda's swinging strike rate is all the way up to 14.4% this year. He's throwing the ball extremely well and he's at home at a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Jake Arrieta isn't getting swings and misses like Maeda, but he is getting a ton of soft contact. He's been getting hitters to roll over on a lot of pitches. Arrieta's hard hit fly ball rate is among the lowest in the majors. Kerwin Danley is the umpire here. He's among the best under umpires in the majors. The under is 90-50 in his last 140 games behind home plate. His strikeout/walk ratio is 8th in the majors in the past five years. The Dodgers have allowed 2 runs or less in 7 of their last 11 games. The Dodgers bullpen is finally rounding into form. Philadelphia's offense has struggled on the road. Take the under. | |||||||
05-28-18 | Mets v. Braves UNDER 8 | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Braves are elite against left handed pitching, but against right handed pitching they are actually below the league average in weighted on base average. Atlanta is expected to be without Acuna here after he was injured on Sunday, and that's a big loss in the lineup. Jacob Degrom has been fantastic this year for the Mets. Degrom has a 1.54 ERA and a terrific 1.89 FIP on the season. His swinging strike rate is all the way up to 15%, which is about as good as you will ever see. Degrom has been one of the best in the majors this year. He has a career ERA of only 1.97 in day games. He has a career ERA of only 1.89 in 13 starts against Atlanta. Max Fried is a talented young lefty for the Braves. Fried goes against a Mets lineup that ranks last by a large margin in weighted on base average against lefties. The Mets lineup is a really weak one without Cespedes and Frazier, especially against left handed pitching. Both lineups are banged up going into this one and I like the starting pitching matchup. The under is 6-0 in Degrom's last 6 starts. Take the under. | |||||||
05-27-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 201.5 | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 45 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* It's all on the line here in Boston on Sunday night. It's 3-3 and this is game seven. LeBron James and the Cavs shot the ball extremely well on Friday night en route to a 109-99 win over the Celtics in Cleveland. On the surface it would look like things didn't slow down as the games got more important in game six, but they actually did. The pace of game six was the slowest of any game in this series thus far. Both teams just shot the ball better than normal. The Cavs also got 15 offensive rebounds, which is not at all the usual for them. Boston made 12/28 from 3 point range in the loss. This game means everything to both teams and it would be surprising if the tempo sped up at all here. Every possession matters more. The winner of this game will be in the NBA Finals. Kevin Love is questionable for game seven with an injury, and if he misses the game or is less than 100 percent that helps the under. Love is a good offensive player, but he is a subpar defensive player. Look for better defensive effort and lower shooting percentages here. Take the under. | |||||||
05-27-18 | Blue Jays v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here. Pivetta is one of the most improved pitchers in baseball. He was tremendous in the minors, but struggled in the big leagues last year. He's getting ahead in the count and not making near as many mistakes this year. Pivetta's swinging strike rate was an average 8.7% last year and it has jumped to an impressive 11.3% this year. Pivetta has a 3.23 ERA and his FIP is even better at 2.86. J.A. Happ has been great so far this year. Happ had a swinging strike rate of 9.4% last year, but it has jumped to 12.0% this season. He's been much sharper with his slider, and that gives hitters something extra to worry about. In 4 of his last 6 starts, Happ has gone at least 7 innings and allowed 2 runs or less. Both of these bullpens were used a lot less yesterday thanks to some good work by the starting pitchers, and that helps make more of the best bullpen guys available in this one. The wind blowing in at 10-15 mph during this game is a nice help. Take the under. | |||||||
05-25-18 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The New York Mets offense is a mess without Cespedes, Frazier, and Lagares. The Brewers offense has underachieved all season. Noah Syndergaard is a top young talent. Syndergaard contains a rare combination of great command and great swing and miss stuff. Very few pitchers that have the swing and miss stuff that he has are able to throw strikes as consistently as Syndergaard. Junior Guerra has been solid this year. Guerra has an impressive 3.02 ERA at home in his career. He's backed by a fantastic bullpen. All of the Brewers top bullpen guys should be available in this one. Mike Muchlinski is the home plate umpire and that's a plus for the under as well. He has consistently had a higher strikeout/walk ratio than the average umpire. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 13 games. The Brewers offense has been shut down multiple times of late as well. Take the under. | |||||||
05-24-18 | Mets v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 5-0 | Win | 105 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Mets have now scored 3 runs or less in 9 of their last 12 games. The Mets offense wasn't great to start with, but now they are severely shorthanded with their best bats out of the lineup due to injuries. Zach Davies is a mediocre pitcher, but he says he is healthy again now and his numbers should improve a bit from his relatively slow start. Davies has good career numbers against the Mets in a small sample size as well. Steven Matz goes against a Brewers offense that has been bad against lefties this year. They are second to last in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. In the last 30 days- these two teams rank 24th and 29th overall in the majors in weighted on base average. These offenses have been struggling. The Mets bullpen is average, but the Brewers bullpen is elite. The Mets don't give us many reasons to expect them to score much here, and the Brewers numbers against lefties are very poor. Take the under. | |||||||
05-23-18 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 7 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* It's hard to overstate how great Jacob Degrom has been this year. Degrom has a 1.75 ERA and a 1.82 FIP, so it hasn't been good luck, he's just been tremendous. Degrom walked none and struck out 13 in a dazzling performance in his last outing. In his last 27 innings pitched, he has allowed a grand total of one run. Degrom has always been great at Citi Field. He has a career ERA of 2.31 at home. His WHIP is only 1.037 at home in his career. The Marlins have the worst offense in the majors against right handed pitching, and it isn't close. Degrom should be able to shut them down and pitch deep into this game. Dan Straily has pitched much better in his last couple games, and he's going against a Mets lineup that is severely short-handed right now. The Mets have scored 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 11 games. Take the under. | |||||||
05-19-18 | Brewers v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins are expected to be without Joe Mauer here as he left last night's game due to a minor back injury. Miguel Sano is still out due to an injury as well. Sano is their best power hitter and Mauer is their most consistent hitter overall. This lineup is significantly weakened right now. Ryan Braun is on the DL for the Brewers, and they certainly miss his bat. The Brewers rank in the bottom 10 in the majors in almost all major offensive categories so far this year. Milwaukee's bullpen has been absolutely amazing, and they haven't been overworked of late, so most of their top arms should be available here. Freddy Peralta faced 21 batters at Coors Field in his MLB debut and he struck out 13 of them. I don't have to tell you that isn't an easy task. Peralta hides the ball extremely well and his deceptive delivery should make him tough for hitters the first few times they see him. He has been very good in Triple A. Fernando Romero has been excellent in his first three big league starts. He has a 12.9% swinging strike rate. Romero consistently throws 97 or 98 mph and still manages to do a solid job limiting hard contact. Mark Ripperger is behind the plate and I consider him a big under umpire. He ranks in the top six in the majors in strike percentage called in the past five years. The wind is blowing in as well. Take the under. | |||||||
05-18-18 | Diamondbacks v. Mets UNDER 7 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks go to New York City to take on the Mets on Friday night. The Diamondbacks offense has been one of the most disappointing in the majors. Arizona is where they are at right now because of their pitching staff. The Mets started the season hitting the ball well, but injuries stopped them in their tracks in recent weeks. Arizona is without A.J. Pollock and Jake Lamb due to injury and that is two key losses. Pollock had been on fire offensively until getting hurt a few days ago. The Mets are without Todd Frazier and Yoenis Cespedes here. They might also be without Juan Lagares. On the season, the Mets are 25th in the majors in weighted on base average and the Diamondbacks are 28th. Godley has proven to be a quality starting pitcher and Arizona's bullpen is great. Jacob Degrom hasn't allowed a run in his last 20 innings pitched. Degrom has tremendous splits at home throughout his career, and his swinging strike rate is a career high 14.7%. He's pitching at an elite level. The wind is expected to be blowing in at about 12 mph in this one at Citi Field with temperatures only in the 50's. Take the under. | |||||||
05-15-18 | Cavs v. Celtics OVER 202.5 | 94-107 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Boston Celtics coasted to a 108-83 win in game one of this series. Cleveland was 4/26 from 3 point range in that game. The Cavs have some reliable 3 point shooters, and it is hard to imagine them not improving drastically from 3 point range in game two. Boston's offense showed an ability to get into the paint at will. The Celtics have a quickness advantage at nearly every spot on the floor, and Brad Stevens' team should be able to continue to get to the rim against a Cavs defense that ranked second worst in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the regular season. In the last regular season game between these two, the total was 213. The total in game one was 204.5 and even 205 at some books. There has been a big adjustment made. Cleveland and Boston both got fewer offensive rebounds than normal in game one, and they both got to the line less than normal. Even with Cleveland's miserable shooting performance, the game was within 12 points of this total. I think the Celtics will look to score some in transition with their quickness advantage, and I see the Cavs offense looking much better here. Take the over. | |||||||
05-14-18 | Rays v. Royals OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Both Tampa Bay and Kansas City are much better against left handed pitching than they are against right handers. Tampa Bay is 4th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. Kansas City is 15th. We have two young lefties going in this one, and neither of these guys have been able to pitch deep into the game very often. Kansas City's bullpen is the worst in the majors, and Tampa Bay's bullpen is no better than league average. A lot of innings from the bullpens should mean more scoring chances. The weather here is very favorable for an over. A temperature in the mid 80's and winds blowing out 13-15 mph are great for the over. There is a chance of rain as well- that could delay the game which means more of the bullpen and in this case that is a positive. The Royals have allowed a whopping 49 runs in their last six games. The Rays have allowed 35 runs in their last 4 games. Take the over. | |||||||
05-13-18 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays start Joe Biagini here. Biagini pitched decently last year for a while in the starter's role for Toronto, but the wheels fell off after a while. He didn't pitch very well in Triple A as a starter earlier this year, and now he has an 8.10 ERA in two starts in the big leagues this year. The Boston Red Sox are easily first in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. Boston has the second lowest strikeout rate against right handed pitching, and they are second best in isolated power. Biagini has a 6.48 ERA against the Red Sox in his career. Mookie Betts has 6 hits in 11 at bats off him, and two of those hits are homers. Drew Pomeranz is having some major problems this year. His average fastball velocity is down about 2.5 miles per hour from last year. Pomeranz is giving up much more hard contact this year, and he's pitching from behind in the count more than normal. Both bullpens have been overworked in recent days. Jerry Meals is the home plate umpire here, and he's one of the best over umpires in baseball. While Sunday is a big under day long term in MLB- the over is 42-17-1 in Meals' last 60 Sunday games behind the plate. Take the over. | |||||||
05-12-18 | Twins v. Angels OVER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Twins take on the Angels on Saturday night. Kyle Gibson takes the mound for the Twins. Nick Tropeano is on the hill for the Angels. Gibson had been terrible through most of his career, but he has improved so far this season. I'm still a bit skeptical that it is a big breakout. Gibson has struggled badly against the Angels in the past and this is a big test for him. The Angels have a .383 weighted on base average as a team against Gibson. Gibson still has control issues, and I think that will catch up to him over time. Nick Tropeano is coming off the DL to make this start. Tropeano is no better than a league average pitcher even when he is healthy. In the past two weeks, the Angels are first in the majors in weighted on base average as a team and the Twins are fourth. Both bullpens are worse than the league average as well. Take the over. | |||||||
05-10-18 | Jets v. Predators OVER 5.5 | 5-1 | Win | 122 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets are both teams that play at a quick pace. There have been tons of great scoring opportunities both in the regular season meetings and in this playoff series between these two. When it comes to expected goals- none of the first six games were under 5.5 goals. There were a couple great showings by the goalies in there, but the offenses continue to produce great scoring chances. Looking at the last ten meetings between these two teams, six of those games have finished with 8 goals or more. Yes, this is a game 7 and it means a ton to both teams, but that is more than priced into this line. We're getting a significant plus money price on the over at 5.5 when the over was 6 (-105) just a couple games ago in this series. The losing team would be very aggressive pulling the goalie late here which could lead to empty netters late. Take the over. | |||||||
05-09-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 204 | 112-114 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER The Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers both shot the ball extremely well in the first couple games of the series. They have come back down to earth in their shooting in the last couple games. Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tended to go under the total in a pretty big way in the past ten years, and I see some value on the under here. Boston's defense ranked in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were first in the NBA in 3 point FG percentage defense. Philadelphia was third in the NBA in defensive efficiency during the season. They were second in 3 point FG percentage defense. Ben Simmons is a great player, but his decision making and the decision making by the rest of the primary ball handlers on this 76ers team has hurt them in key spots in the playoffs. The 76ers had the highest turnover rate in the NBA this year. There were 52 free throws in Game 4, which is a good amount higher than average in the NBA. In a game of this magnitude, the pace tends to slow down and the defenses play extremely hard. A basic playoff system is a total of 196 or higher with a spread of the home team anywhere from -2.5 to +5.5 and the home team coming off a loss of 7 points or more. In those games, the under is 42-19 (68.9%). If you add in one more filter of public betting percentage of 40% or lower on the under it goes to 31-11 (73.3% to the under. This game fits the system. Take the under. | |||||||
05-09-18 | Mariners v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | 2-5 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Toronto Blue Jays haven't had their typical success against lefties so far this year (they are near the middle of the pack against lefties thus far), but with Josh Donaldson back in the lineup I expect them to improve a lot against lefties. Seattle is top ten in almost every major offensive category against left handed pitchers. The Mariners have several good right handed platoon guys who have made a career of hitting lefties. Wade LeBlanc starts for the Mariners here. LeBlanc has pitched pretty well at home in his career (most of those starts have been in pitcher friendly San Diego and Seattle), but LeBlanc has an ERA of just a tick higher than 6.5 in road starts in his career. He is a below average lefty. Jaime Garcia isn't the pitcher he once was. He has always been streaky, and he's in really poor form coming into this game. Garcia threw it well in his first start of the year, but since then he hasn't gone more than 5 and 1/3 in any outing, and he's allowed at least 3 runs in every game. His last two outings have been terrible. Osuna is out for the Blue Jays which makes their bullpen much worse. The Mariners bullpen has been shaky this year as well. Take the over. | |||||||
05-08-18 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Doug Eddings has called the highest percentage of pitches a strike of any home plate umpire in the last 6 years. It isn't very close either. Eddings has consistently had an extremely high strikeout/walk ratio. He's arguably the best under umpire in the game, and he's behind home plate here. Sean Manaea and Lance McCullers Jr. are two young guys with elite stuff. Both of them have been victimized by walks in the past, but their control has been better so far this season. Eddings will help both of these guys when it comes to expanding the strike zone a bit. The A's are a good offense, but they are better against right handed pitching than lefties. Houston's bullpen is elite and that certainly helps the under a great deal as well. In 161 AB's vs. Manaea- the Astros have a very poor .267 weighted on base average. In 55 AB's against McCullers, the A's have a .254 weighted on base average. Take the under. | |||||||
05-08-18 | Pirates v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 10-6 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago White Sox offense is banged up pretty badly right now. Moncada had just started to heat up when he went down with an injury. Avasail Garcia is also out with an injury. In Chicago's last 26 games, they have scored 2 runs or less 13 times. The White Sox are now injury depleted the most they have been all year on offense. Pittsburgh's offense isn't as good as they have looked early in the year. On the road, Pittsburgh is now down to 20th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA). The White Sox are much weaker on offense at home (26th in wOBA). Giolito has shown positive signs in his last couple starts, and his potential is very high. Nova has been a pretty solid pitcher the last couple years, and he's backed by a strong bullpen. The wind is blowing in for this one and that is key in this stadium. Take the under. | |||||||
05-06-18 | Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Over* Vegas and San Jose have met nine times this year. Six of the nine meetings have seen at least 7 goals scored. Vegas is pushing the pace as much as they can in this series, and it is leading to opportunities both ways. The goalies in this series have only been mediocre to this point. There have been a lot of rebound chances for each side. This is a spot where we could see plenty of empty net chances late because of desperation as well. Take the over. | |||||||
05-03-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 207 | 103-108 | Loss | -103 | 42 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Boston Celtics torched the nets in Game One to defeat Philadelphia 117-101. Boston made a ton of tough 3 pointers in that one, and this Celtics team isn't made to win games like that. Boston wins with defense more often than not. The Celtics should get Jaylen Brown back for this one, and he's their best defender as well. The Celtics and 76ers ranked number one and two in the NBA in 3 point field goal percentage defense in the regular season. In overall defensive efficiency numbers- the Celtics were first and Philly was 3rd in the season. These are two good defenses. Boston doesn't want to get into a track meet with Philadelphia, and they were able to slow the pace down pretty well in Game One. Another reason to expect a lower scoring game here is the lack of turnovers in game one. Philadelphia carried a 16.0% turnover rate into Game One. They turned it over only 10.9% of the time. Boston carried a 14.1% turnover rate into Game One and they turned it over only 9.7% of the time. There should be more wasted trips in this contest. Look for things to regress toward the mean here. Take the under. | |||||||
05-03-18 | Braves v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Jason Vargas is a mediocre lefty, and he is coming off a fairly major injury. Vargas isn't likely to work deep into the game, and the Mets bullpen is worn out right now. Julio Teheran has good history against the Mets in Citi Field, but Teheran's advanced statistics this year suggest he has been fortunate thus far. His fastball velocity is down more than 2 mph from last year, and his hard hit rate allowed is up quite a bit. The Braves bullpen is a big problem as well. A large reason for this play is the weather. Temperatures in the upper 80's and winds blowing out at 15-20 mph are tremendous for the over. In the past 15 years- when the wind is blowing out at least 10 mph at Citi Field- the over is a whopping 116-67 (63.4% overs). If you look at totals of 8.5 or lower only, the over rate goes up to better than 66% during that span. Two shaky starters and winds howling out on a hot day are a recipe for runs. Take the over. | |||||||
05-02-18 | White Sox v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The weather calls for temperatures in the low 80's and wind blowing out at about 15 mph during this game. That's very favorable conditions for an over. Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he is one the best over umpires in baseball. Holbrook has seen 54.5% of his games in his career behind the dish go over the total. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently low compared to the big league average. Giolito has walked a lot more guys than he has struck out this year. He'll likely have trouble against a Cardinals lineup that is very deep. The White Sox bullpen is one of the worst in baseball as well. Carlos Martinez is a good pitcher, but he is due for some regression due to his batted ball luck and his strand rate so far this year. Take the over. | |||||||
05-02-18 | Rays v. Tigers UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Detroit Tigers start Michael Fulmer here. Fulmer has been superb both during his career in both the first half of the season and at home. Fulmer has a 2.76 ERA in the first half of the year vs. a 4.25 ERA in the second half. He has a 3.19 ERA at home. His WHIP when pitching at home is 1.051 vs. 1.23 on the road. Fulmer has been his very best in day games in his career. Fulmer's career WHIP during day games is 0.989. He gets a below average lineup at home in a day game here. Blake Snell has been absolutely dealing of late. Snell has walked one batter and struck out 24 in his last three starts combined. Snell has allowed more than 2 runs in only one start this season. That is despite facing Boston twice and the Yankees once already this year. His swinging strike rate was 10.8% last year and it has jumped to 13.8% this year. This is a get away day game and that should mean some regular guys get the day off. Miguel Cabrera is questionable due to an injury. The weather calls for a strong breeze from the SW which should serve to slow down fly balls hit toward right field. Take the under. | |||||||
04-30-18 | Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 4-3 | Win | 121 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Vegas Golden Knights and San Jose Sharks have met six times this season. Four of those contests have finished with 7 goals or more. Vegas has a ton of speed and is good at creating quick scoring chances. San Jose has a major offensive weapon back in this one as Evander Kane returns from a suspension. In the NHL playoffs, taking a plus money price on the over has been profitable in the long run. With a total of less than 6 goals and a plus money price- when both teams are allowing a defensive shooting percentage of 8.4% or higher the over has a 13.4% ROI in the last 15 years. In the last 10 years the ROI in this situation is 21%. This price gives us a good chance to grab the over. Look for a good amount of scoring chances each way. Take the over. | |||||||
04-29-18 | A's v. Astros OVER 8 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Both of these offenses are excellent. Thus far in the season, Oakland is second in weighted on base average and Houston is 7th. These two lineups are more than capable of putting up big numbers. They have both done it very consistently. Houston has scored 7 runs or more in 7 of their last 10 games. Oakland has scored 8 runs or more in 7 of their last 15 games. Gerrit Cole has been great so far this year, but you have to expect his numbers to regress some over time. Cole has stranded 92.4% of runners so far this year which can't continue long term. Trevor Cahill has only started two games and those were both against subpar offenses. The Astros are one of the best offenses in baseball. I don't trust Cahill, and he's backed by a mediocre bullpen. Segal is a bit of an over umpire with a smaller than average strike zone and if the roof is open the wind is expected to be blowing out in this one. Take the over. | |||||||
04-28-18 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 8 | 2-12 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Joey Lucchesi has been tremendous so far this year. His deceptive delivery and interesting "churve" pitch have taken the league by storm. Until you have seen him at least once, I think most teams will struggle against him. The Mets are below average against lefties, and Lucchesi is backed by a top five bullpen in the majors as well. Jason Vargas has historically been a great pitcher in the first half of the season and a terrible second half pitcher. The Padres are bottom five in the league in weighted on base average against lefties. Marty Foster is the home plate umpire here and the under is 209-175 in his career behind home plate. He routinely calls a higher percentage of strikes than the normal home plate umpire. Look for a low scoring contest. Take the under. | |||||||
04-28-18 | Reds v. Twins OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Reds offense is much better than they have performed so far this year. They were without some key guys for long stretches earlier this year. Scott Schebler and Eugenio Suarez are back in the lineup now, and that should help in a big way. Joey Votto has heated up in the last few games, and he's still one of the best hitters in the game. Cincinnati's pitching staff is still a major problem. Romano isn't getting many swinging strikes, and he is getting behind in the count too often. Minnesota's offense is also better than they have shown this year. The Twins have guys like Sano and Dozier who should perform better than they have to this point. Odorizzi has been very fortunate in recent years with his ERA vs his FIP and xFIP, and I don't expect his fortunes to continue to be so good. His batting average on balls in play allowed is only .250 this year and that shows regression should be on the way. These are two of the worst five bullpens in baseball. Tom Woodring is the umpire here and the over is 41-26 in his career behind the dish. Take the over. | |||||||
04-27-18 | White Sox v. Royals OVER 8.5 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Royals host the Chicago White Sox here. The wind is expected to be blowing out at about 10 mph. Danny Duffy has an 8.10 ERA in his last five starts against the White Sox. Duffy's control has been terrible this year, and his getting behind batters is making his home runs allowed rate even worse. He's a fly ball pitcher and with the wind blowing out that should hurt him. Reynaldo Lopez has had a lot of trouble throwing strikes too. It hasn't hurt him so far very much, but in the long run when you aren't getting that high of a strikeout rate and you are getting behind a lot of people, it should hurt. The Royals have the worst bullpen in baseball, and the White Sox rank in the bottom 8 of baseball in relief pitching in almost every advanced statistic. Look for both teams to have plenty of scoring chances. Take the over. | |||||||
04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 204.5 | 87-121 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Friday night. Indiana is down 3-2 after LeBron James nailed the 3 pointer at the buzzer to finish game five in spectacular fashion for the Cavs. Indiana's defense has played very well in this series. The Pacers are working hard to keep the Cavs out of the paint. The Pacers are also doing a great job slowing down the tempo in this series. All five of the games in this series have stayed under the total. I think this one has a good chance to stay under as well. Indiana cannot get into a track meet, and they have been better at controlling the pace on their home floor. Game five stayed under this number by double digits despite 54 free throw attempts and 47 made free throws. That is far above average, especially since these two teams both ranked in the top five in the NBA at defending without fouling. Closeout games in the NBA playoffs have tilted under strongly for a long time- and that is even more the case when the team oddsmakers are lower on is the home team like the Pacers are here. This one should be a dog fight, and I'll look for a slow tempo with so much on the line for both teams. Take the under. | |||||||
04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 204.5 | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* I'm playing the under here as I look for the shooting numbers to normalize for these teams. The Milwaukee Bucks have been shooting lights out the last 3 games. Milwaukee is shooting a ridiculous 56.3% from the floor in their last 3. They are shooting 45.2% from long distance. On the year, the Bucks shot 47.8% from the floor and 35.5% from 3 point range. Boston had the number one rated defensive when it comes to points allowed per possession during the regular season. The Celtics are better than they have shown defensively in this series. Marcus Smart was upgraded to questionable for this one and if he plays that is a big boost for the under. The tempo in this series has been extremely slow. I expect that to continue. If you run efficiency projections for this game you come up with a total several points lower than this. I'll expect a regression to the mean when it comes to shooting here in this pivotal game 5. Take the under. | |||||||
04-23-18 | Capitals v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | 6-3 | Win | 101 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Blue Jackets host the Capitals in a game where Columbus will look to stay alive after leading 2-0 to start this series. A theme in this series has been lots of shots on goal. There have been at least 70 shots on goal total in 3 of the last 4 games. All shots on goal aren't created equal though, and that's what has made games between these two unique over time. Both teams are good at creating great scoring chances. There is a lot of pressure on the defenses and the goalies in these contests. Six of the last nine games between these two have gone over the total. The three that stayed under all finished with 5 goals. Expect aggressive play and we could certainly see extended time with an empty net late in the game if someone has a lead. Take the over. | |||||||
04-22-18 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 205.5 | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Pacers have their blueprint for making this a series. They slow the tempo of the game down and be aggressive on defense going for steals and disrupting the Cavs offensive flow. The average possessions per game in the four regular season meetings between these two teams was nearly 6 possessions quicker than the first three games of this series have been. Game 3 was the slowest paced game, and Indiana has typically been able to slow the game down more on their home floor so I expect a slower tempo again here. The Cavs defense has been improved in the playoffs thus far. This game means a bunch to the Cavs, and I would expect effort from them here. Both of these teams are good at defending without fouling which is key. None of the first three games in this series have finished even close to this high. Looking at scoring efficiency numbers- I believe this total should be around 200. Take the under. | |||||||
04-22-18 | Giants v. Angels UNDER 9 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Johnny Cueto is healthy this year and he is in the middle of a nice comeback season. I don't think he's the same pitcher he was a few years ago, but he isn't as bad as his numbers from last year suggest either. Barria is a highly touted prospect for the Angels who has shown good control in the minor leagues. The Giants lineup is a weak one to start with, and they will be without Pence and might be without Buster Posey again here as well. Doug Eddings is the home plate umpire here, and he has the highest strikes called percentage in the majors in the last five years. He's a big help to the under. Sunday has been the best under day in the majors overall by a wide margin in the long term, and with a key number of 9 here, I like the value. Take the under. | |||||||
04-22-18 | Pirates v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 2-3 | Win | 104 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Philadelphia Phillies start Nick Pivetta here, and he's a guy who looks like a new pitcher this year. Pivetta was hurt by a very high HR rate allowed last year, but his minor league numbers were terrific. He appears to be breaking out. Pivetta hasn't just been lucky this year. His advanced statistics all look terrific. Trevor Williams has turned into a solid starter for the Pirates, and his ability to keep the ball down with his downward movement on his pitches has been key. Williams has a career ERA in day games of only 2.62 (4.90 at night). Pivetta has a day ERA of 3.32 (7.02 at night). The under is 6-0 in Williams last 6 road starts. The under is 6-0 in Williams last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in his last 4 Sunday starts. The under is 3-0-2 in the Phillies last 5 home games. The under is 3-0-1 in Pivetta's last 4 starts. The under is 5-0-3 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams. A combined 27-0 angle. Take the under. | |||||||
04-22-18 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 204.5 | 102-104 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Sunday NBA Early Bird Special* The Boston Celtics were first in the NBA in defensive efficiency this year. Boston allowed 1.015 points per possession. They gave up 1.324 points per possession in Game 3 against Milwaukee. That isn't likely to happen again. Even with that ridiculous shooting by Milwaukee, the game very narrowly went past this posted total. I expect Brad Stevens (a tremendous coach), to have his team ready to go in Game 4, especially on the defensive end. The last two games have seen shooting numbers in an extremely high area overall for both teams. Two games ago Boston averaged 1.301 and Milwaukee 1.149 points per possession (above average). The first two games saw posted totals of 200 and 199.5, and scoring efficiency averages I ran for this game were all in the high 190's. This number is inflated thanks to great shooting performances from the two teams in the last couple games. The tempo should stay slow and the defense should improve. Take the under. | |||||||
04-20-18 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 209.5 | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Indiana Pacers played at the slowest tempo in the NBA in their last 25 regular season games. The Pacers changed their style of play in the middle of the season, and it worked very nicely when they slowed things down and turned the game into a halfcourt battle. The Indiana Pacers have slowed the game down nicely in the first two games of this series. Those two games have played to the two slowest paced games between the Pacers and Cavs this year. Indiana will try to do the same again here. Cleveland and Indiana both rank in the top five in the NBA at least free throws for their opponent. Indiana also ranks in the bottom five in the NBA in least free throws attempted. Here's a basic, but strong NBA playoffs first round system that this game fits: -A total of 191 or higher -Home team win percentage of 61% or less on the year -Road team win percentage of 50%-68% on the year The under is a whopping 77-33 (70%) in the last 110 games that fit this system. Take the under. | |||||||
04-19-18 | Pirates v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star MLB Red HOT CASH* The Pittsburgh Pirates offense has started the season on fire, but I don't expect them to be able to keep it up. Several guys in this lineup are hitting far above their career highs, and I expect regression to the mean. The Pirates will come back to the pack. Jameson Taillon is a guy I'm very high on though. Taillon has always been a guy with great control all the way up through the minors and in his time in the bigs so far. Taillon is excellent at inducing weak contact as well, which can minimize damage nicely in most situations. Jake Arrieta obviously has a high upside as well. He hasn't been great so far this year, but he is very capable. The weather is a big factor here. Temperatures around 40 degrees with wind blowing in about 15 mph make the under a nice value in my opinion. These early season unders with the wind blowing in on cold days have been great to bettors in the past decade. Take the under. | |||||||
04-18-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday night at Chase Field. This is no longer one of the best hitters parks in the majors. The humidor put in place here has significantly slowed down the scoring here. It will take some time for bettors to get accustomed to Chase Field not being a great hitters park. Robbie Ray has had bad career numbers at Chase Field, but that was before the humidor. He faces a light hitting Giants team today, and the Giants are likely to be without Evan Longoria. Jake Lamb is out for Arizona and he is a key bat in the middle of the lineup. Chris Stratton has pitched really well, and he has been a highly rated prospect in the past. He seems to be coming into his own. Phil Cuzzi is the home plate umpire here, and Cuzzi has seen 55.1% of games in his career behind the plate stay under the total. His strikes called percentage are always among the top 10 umpires in the league. Take the under. | |||||||
04-18-18 | Jazz v. Thunder UNDER 206.5 | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Jazz had the best defense in the NBA by a wide margin in the second half of the season. Utah wasn't good defensively in game one. Oklahoma City made 14/29 shots from 3 point range. Paul George nailed 8/11 from long range. The Thunder averaged better than 1.12 points per possession. Utah allowed less than 1 point per possession over the last 3 months of the season. Utah knocked down 11/28 from 3 point range as well. The Thunder were poor in their pick and roll defense, and they should improve in that area in game two. These two teams didn't play a regular season game that went above 194. Though these teams are much different now (no Roberson for OKC) and that bumps the total up some, game one looks like an aberration to me. Mitchell has been a star for Utah this year. He is likely to play here, but he is less than 100 percent. The defenses should improve here, and the tempo should slow as well. Take the under. | |||||||
04-18-18 | White Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | 11-12 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's offense is still underrated. The depth of this offense is much better than it has been in recent season. Oakland has Stephen Piscotty and Johnathan Lucroy batting eighth and ninth in the order, which shows you how deep this lineup truly is right now. Oakland has scored at least 8 runs by themselves in four of their last six games. The A's are rolling offensively, and now they face a young righty in Carson Fulmer who walks a bunch of people. That makes him prone to the big inning. Fulmer has a lot of potential, but he's likely to struggle this year. Triggs has been pretty good for the A's so far this year, but I see him as about a league average pitcher. The White Sox offense isn't great, but they are good enough to create some scoring chances. Both bullpens are bad. I see both as bottom 10 in baseball when it comes to bullpens. There should be scoring chances late. Mark Wegner is a great over umpire and he's behind the dish here. His strikes called and strikeout/walk ratio consistently make him one of the best over umpires in the business. Take the over. | |||||||
04-17-18 | White Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland A's offense is far better this year than it has been in recent years. From top to bottom, this is a lineup that doesn't really have any weaknesses. Oakland ranks third in the majors in weighted on base average. The A's have been really high scoring this year, and their pitching staff isn't very good either. In Oakland's 16 games this year, in 7 of them one team has scored at least 7 runs. The White Sox have been inconsistent on offense this year. They do have a lot of quality hitters who are bound to improve in the coming weeks. Guys like Moncada, Davidson, and Abreu are better hitters than they have shown so far this year. Miguel Gonzalez has lost 2 mph off his fastball, and his swinging strike rate is at a career low of 6.6%. His hard hit allowed rate is also at a career high. Trevor Cahill walks far too many batters, and he isn't likely to get very deep into the game. The A's middle relief is a weakness. Take the over. | |||||||
04-17-18 | Orioles v. Tigers OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -119 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Detroit Tigers host the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday night. Andrew Cashner takes on Francisco Liriano. With the way these two guys are pitching at this stage in their careers, this total is too low. Cashner has managed to get outs in some really strange ways the last couple years. Cashner had a 3.40 ERA last year, but his FIP and xFIP were 4.61 and 5.30. He got very lucky. In two starts this year, he has a 2.50 ERA with a 5.67 FIP and a 4.79 xFIP. His swinging strike rate is so low that he is reliant on batters hitting it at fielders, and I don't expect that to continue at the rate it has. Speaking of swinging strike rates- Francisco Liriano routinely had swinging strike rates of 13.5% or better for several years, but it dropped all the way to 9.6% last year. So far this year it is only 6.8%. Liriano has always had control problems, so not being able to strike out nearly as many is a big problem for him. The Orioles offense is bad in general, but they are 12th in wOBA against lefties. The Tigers offense isn't as bad as they have looked so far this year. The wind here is blowing out about 15 mph, and Comerica is a park where wind blowing out has made a huge difference in the past. Take the over. | |||||||
04-16-18 | Predators v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Predators and Avalanche have met six times this year. Only one of those contests finished under 5.5 goals, and that was a 4-1 contest. Four of the six have seen at least 7 goals scored. Colorado is without their top goalie (Varlamov) and Bernier is one of the weakest goalies in the playoffs. Nashville puts a bunch of shots on goal, and they are good at creating high danger scoring chances. Colorado looks to push the pace of the game, and they are even better at forcing the issue when they are on home ice as they are for this one. The Avalanche aren't only without Varlamov. The loss of Erik Johnson hurts this team's defense quite a bit as well. Colorado's defense was never great, and without those two it is much weaker. Colorado will generate plenty of shots with their fast pace, and Rinne has been below average against Colorado in his career. Take the over. | |||||||
04-16-18 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 215.5 | 113-103 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia 76ers put on a shooting clinic in game one. They shot a ridiculous 18/28 from three point range in blowing out the Heat 130-103. The Heat also made 12/26 from three point range in game one. Philadelphia averaged 1.276 points per possession in game one. They averaged 1.074 points per possession on the season. Even if you want to say the 76ers are better on offense now than they were early in the year (I think that is true), the 76ers only average 1.127 points per possession in their last 10 games. Their shooting percentages should regress. Also important to note is that the 76ers only turned the ball over on 8.5% of their possessions in game one, and on the year they average turnovers on 16.1% of possessions. Miami shot a little better than average from the floor in game one as well. These two defenses ranked third and seventh in the NBA in points per possession allowed in the regular season. There's no reason to expect the great shooting to continue. Is it possible that the red hot shooting will continue? Of course it is. Still, all of my tempo based efficiency projections point to a total of 209-210 here. This number is inflated because of recent shooting numbers from the 76ers. Though it is a hard bet to make when you see the 76ers throw in everything in game one, I have to take the value on the under here. Take the under. | |||||||
04-15-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 2-7 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Dodgers will start Clayton Kershaw on Sunday afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Dodgers are off to a slow start to the season, and this is a big game for them against a hot Arizona team. I don't have to tell you how dominant Clayton Kershaw has been over the years, and his numbers against the Diamondbacks are very good. Zack Godley has turned into a really nice pitcher for Arizona. He has a 0.64 ERA and an impressive 1.55 FIP through two starts. He throws hard and has good movement on multiple pitches. The under is 4-0 in Godley's last 4 road starts. The under is 4-0 in the Dodgers last 4 during game 3 of a series. The under is 6-0 in Kershaw's last 6 starts on six days of rest. A combined 14-0 angle. The Diamondbacks weren't very good against lefties last year, and the Dodgers offense has struggled without Justin Turner. Expect a low scoring game here. Take the under. | |||||||
04-14-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 217.5 | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Portland Blazers host the New Orleans Pelicans in game one of this playoff series. Portland has been a great under team this year. The Blazers defense has been far better than anyone expected. Portland ranks 8th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They rank 19th in the NBA in tempo, so they are slower than average. In the last 12 games alone, they rank even slower at 25th in tempo. New Orleans plays very quickly, and that's why we have a high total here. Still, the Pelicans are a different team than they were earlier this year. The Pelicans have Emeka Okafor playing a lot of minutes now, and he's much better on the defensive end than the offensive end. Solomon Hill fits in that category as well. DeMarcus Cousins was an offensive force, and these guys are a big offensive downgrade. The opposite is true on defense. New Orleans ranks 13th in defensive efficiency for the year, but they are an impressive 3rd in defensive efficiency in their last 15 games. The most recent and most important game between these two this year was 107-103. I expect a similar type of game here. Things usually slow down a bit in the playoffs, and I think these two defenses are both top ten defenses in the NBA with their current rosters. Take the under. | |||||||
04-13-18 | Phillies v. Rays UNDER 8 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Tampa Bay has scored 2 runs or less six times already this year. The Rays lack any reliable hitter to contribute in the middle of the order. The Philadelphia Phillies offense has been good so far this year, but they haven't exactly faced tremendous pitching staffs thus far. While I think the Phillies offense is pretty good, I think their numbers are overvalued offensively right now. In Velasquez and Faria we have two young pitchers with a lot of talent. Velasquez had a terrible outing against the Braves in his first start, but a closer look there shows it was some terrible luck. Braves hitters had a batting average on balls in play of .643 (around .300 is average) in that one. Velasquez has a 5.19 ERA, but his FIP is 1.78. Faria was crushed by the Red Sox in his last outing, and both of his starts so far this year have been against Boston. The Red Sox have one of the best offenses in baseball, and they'll make a lot of pitchers look bad this year. The under is 25-9 in the Rays last 34 home games. The under is 4-1 in Faria's last 5 home starts. Take the under. | |||||||
04-12-18 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Twins start Jose Berrios here. Berrios broke out in a big way with a great season last year, and his stuff is elite. Berrios has held White Sox hitters to a .132 batting average in 68 at bats. He has tremendous strikeout stuff. Berrios has a 3.29 ERA through two games this season, but his FIP is only 2.27 and his SIERA is 2.71. He's pitched well. Lucas Giolito has loads of potential. His consistency hasn't been very good yet, but I think he could experience a big breakout season this year like Berrios did a year ago. He has good command of several pitches, and there is lots of movement on all of his pitches. The weather is a big factor here. The temperature will be in the low 40's with wind blowing in at 8-10 mph. In the past 10 years, in the first month of the season in MLB with winds blowing in at 7 mph or greater and a temperature of 59 degrees or colder the under is hitting 63% of the time. This game fits that system. Take the under. | |||||||
04-12-18 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 4-3 | Win | 107 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets both play at a fast pace. These teams have a history of some high scoring games against each other. Phillip Grubauer and Sergei Bobrovsky have both been good this year, but Grubauer doesn't have playoff experience and that hurts a lot here. Bobrovsky's career save percentage in the playoffs is below 89%. There are question marks here. The over is 5-0 in the Capitals last 5 games when playing on three days of rest or more. The over is 13-3 in the Blue Jackets last 16 road games. The first round of the NHL playoffs has actually been good for overs long-term, especially plus money overs. Take the over. | |||||||
04-11-18 | Nuggets v. Wolves UNDER 212 | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets play on Wednesday night in a game that will decide who gets into the playoffs and who has to watch the playoffs from home. While both of these teams have been bad overall on defense this year and good on offense, they do both play at a slow pace. The pace of the game should be even slower since the game means so much in this case. This is essentially a one-game playoff to decide who continues. There are a couple interesting numbers to show that these two are playing harder on defense of late as well. In the last five games, both of these teams rank in the top 9 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. In their last 3 games only, both rank in the top five in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They are both in the bottom 10 in the league on the year in that number. They have tightened up the defense as the games have gotten more important. With so much on the line, this is a high total. Look for a game where both teams slow things down and try to take care of the basketball. The defensive effort should be much better than an average NBA game. Take the under. | |||||||
04-11-18 | Rays v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Rays are having a "Bullpen Day" and starting Chirinos here. The Rays bullpen doesn't have very good depth, and that should show itself over time. On the other side, the White Sox start James Shields who I consider one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Shields velocity is down 3 mph from a few years ago, and he isn't getting any swinging strikes or strikeouts. Even a poor offense like the Rays should be able to get to him. The White Sox bullpen isn't good either. The wind is blowing out and it is a much milder temperature today in Chicago as well. Take the over. | |||||||
04-10-18 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 8 | 8-6 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Marlins are going to be one of the worst offenses in baseball this year. Miami has scored 2 runs or less in four of their last five games. The Marlins have hit lefties pretty well so far this year, but they have been dreadful (.203 average) against right handed pitching. Jacob Degrom is a very solid right handed pitcher. Degrom has pitched much better in the first half of the season in his career than the second half. Degrom's jump in swinging strike rate in the past year suggests to me that he is pointing toward even better things ahead. Caleb Smith has good strikeout stuff, but he has struggled with walks. The Mets have a lineup that should be better against right handed pitching than lefties this year, and Smith is a lefty. DJ Reyburn is the umpire here, and he is a good under umpire. In Reyburn's career, the under is 118-92 in his games behind the dish. He'll help both pitchers on the corners. Take the under here. | |||||||
04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 8 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star MLB Sunday Night Baseball CASH* The Washington Nationals host the New York Mets here in a divisional rivalry. The home plate umpire for this game is Mark Ripperger and he is one of the best under umpires in the majors. His strike zone will benefit the pitchers quite a bit through this contest. The weather is a huge factor. With temperatures dropping in the low 40's during the game, and winds of 10-12 mph blowing in, this is a great spot for an under. There is a strong weather angle that this game fits: In the first 20 games of the season when the temperature is 58 degrees or lower and the wind is blowing in at least 8 mph and the total is 7.5 or higher- the under is a whopping 120-64 (65.2%). Both bullpens are good and I think this is a good price on the under given the umpire draw and the weather. Take the under. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
ProSportsPicks | $1,066 |
Jack Jones | $960 |
Big Al McMordie | $876 |
Ross Benjamin | $740 |
Ray Monohan | $702 |
Jimmy Boyd | $424 |
Nick Parsons | $414 |
Ricky Tran | $343 |
Kyle Hunter | $265 |
Matt Fargo | $175 |