PAGE_HEADER
| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-04-20 | Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team | 31-17 | Push | 0 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a really poor performance against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Sure, it is a short week to prepare for this game, but Baltimore also enters this game in a bad mood. The Ravens have beaten up on weaker competition under Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson in recent seasons. That should be the case again here. Baltimore has won and covered the last four times they have been favorites of more than a touchdown. Overall in the NFL, in weeks 4 and 5: favorites of 10 points or more are 27-15 ATS (64%) in the last 42. Washington's offense is terrible. Haskins just isn't the answer at quarterback right now. He makes far too many bad decisions with the football. Baltimore is very likely to make him pay. Washington's defensive line is without both Chase Young and Matt Ioannidis on the defensive line. That is normally their biggest strength as a team. Baltimore's running game should work very well here, and this is a get right spot for the Ravens. Lay the points. Take Baltimore. | |||||||
| 10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 42.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Bucs defense ranks 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. The rushing defense is as good as you'll find in the NFL, and the secondary is quickly improving. Todd Bowles is a great defensive coordinator and he is really making his mark on this unit. The LA Chargers haven't given up more than 23 points in a game so far this year (and that was KC scoring 23 in overtime against them). The Chargers secondary is very solid, and they have a strong pass rush. Tom Brady hasn't looked in sync yet, and Leonard Fournette is out for this game. Chris Godwin is also out at WR. The Chargers are without two starters on the offensive line. Tampa Bay's defensive front should dominate them here. Justin Herbert is making his first road start here. I expect him to struggle in this one. The weather calls for a 80% chance of rain and some winds of about 10-12 mph during this one as well, which helps the under. Take the under. | |||||||
| 10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins OVER 54.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Seattle Seahawks rank 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar are both out from the Seattle secondary for this one. Adams is the best player in this secondary, and that is a huge loss for a team that is already giving up a lot of big plays in the air. Three other guys in the Seattle secondary are questionable here. There are major injury issues in the Seattle secondary. Miami cornerback Byron Jones is listed as doubtful here, and he would be a major loss as the Dolphins go against Russell Wilson and this fantastic Seattle passing attack. Seattle has been letting Russell Wilson air it out a lot more often this year, and I see no reason why they would stop here. The Dolphins weakness now is in the secondary and Seattle has clear matchup advantages there. Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of big plays for Miami, especially against a really weak Seattle secondary. Seattle is 30th in explosive play defense, so they have already been giving up bunch of big plays and now they are much more banged up. The weather initially looked questionable for this game, but the current forecast looks much better with a very small chance for rain and less wind (12 mph). Take the over. | |||||||
| 09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 54 | 34-20 | Push | 0 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet. Kansas City's defense has allowed 6.1 yards per play against the Chargers and 6.7 yards per play against the Texans. They have really struggled with mobile quarterbacks in their first two games. That isn't a good weakness to have when you are about to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Kansas City's offense hasn't been amazing so far this year, but we all know it is coming. The Chiefs have too much talent and they are certainly going to finish the season as a top 2 or 3 offense in the NFL. Baltimore gets more big plays in the running game than any other team in the NFL. The Chiefs are weak in that regard. Additionally, the Chiefs are still shorthanded in the secondary without Breeland. I think the Ravens get the lead in this one, and that encourages more scoring here since KC can really play with pace and pile up the points when they are behind. Take the over here. | |||||||
| 09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Saints* The Green Bay Packers have been able to feast on bad teams and specifically really bad defenses so far this year. Aaron Rodgers took advantage of a terrible Vikings defense and an awful Lions defense (with a banged up secondary) to put up big numbers. Things will get tougher against a good Saints defense. New Orleans didn't look good on defense on Monday night, but I do still believe this is a quality defense. The secondary is the strength of the team. Devante Adams is now listed as doubtful for the Packers. If he does play he will be far less than 100 percent. The Packers don't have much depth at all at wide receivers. The Saints are much better at home than on the road. New Orleans is a whopping 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Packers run defense is a weakness, and I think Kamara can do quite a bit of damage here for the Saints. Perception of the Packers is too high now. I'll back the home team laying the short number. Take New Orleans. | |||||||
| 09-27-20 | Lions v. Cardinals OVER 51.5 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals are playing extremely fast this year. Kyler Murray in the second year of Kingsbury's system will be very good. Hopkins gives him an elite wide receiver. They are likely to finish with the fastest pace in the NFL this season. Arizona moved the ball pretty well against San Francisco, and they moved it very well against a strong Washington defensive front. The Cardinals now take on a very weak Detroit Lions defense. Detroit has major problems in the secondary. Mitch Trubisky lit them up in the 4th quarter in week one. Green Bay averaged 7.4 yards per play in their big win over Detroit. I'm not convinced Detroit will be able to slow down Arizona here. Arizona hasn't been tested very much defensively this year. The Cardinals played a 49ers team with a bunch of injuries on offense in week one. They took on a Washington team that is just weak on offense in their second game. Look for lots of plays in this one and big plays for both sides in the passing game. Take the over. | |||||||
| 09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos UNDER 43 | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Denver Broncos have a lot of questions, but they are almost all on the offensive side. The Broncos defense still is very strong. Tampa Bay did win last week against Carolina, but they weren't all that good offensively. The Bucs are only averaging 5.3 yards per play this year (24th in the NFL). Denver's offense has been even worse. Denver is averaging only 4.9 yards per play on the season. The Broncos are now with backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Driskel isn't a big downgrade from Drew Lock, but Driskel is going to have a rough time here against a very strong Tampa Bay defense. I love the job Todd Bowles is doing with the Tampa Bay defense. They have been excellent at stopping the run in recent seasons, and that is still true, but they are much improved all around this year. I don't think the Broncos offensive line will perform well against them. Denver will try to play conservatively here, but I don't think they'll have much success. The weather is another real factor here. The forecast calls for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is plenty to change a game plan. Expect to see a lot of running and short passes. It will be harder to stretch the field. Take the under here. | |||||||
| 09-27-20 | Rams v. Bills -2.5 | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 129 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bills* The Los Angeles Rams came east and played a good game against the Philadelphia Eagles last week. The Rams deserve a lot of credit for how they've played thus far, but I'm still not convinced this time is great. Los Angeles is now in a very tough spot this week. The Rams fly back all the way to LA, only to turn around and fly back to Buffalo later this week. Buffalo's defense should be able to do enough to make Jared Goff feel more uncomfortable than he has been in the first two weeks of the season. The Buffalo offense is much better this year. Josh Allen has much improved weapons around him, and I really like the way Allen has played so far this year. He threw for over 400 yards last game against pretty good cornerbacks in Miami. The Bills offense is sneaky good. Buffalo is always hard to beat in Buffalo. I think the market is a little too high on the Rams now, and the Bills are the better team all around. I'll lay the short number here. Take Buffalo. | |||||||
| 09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 73 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off an emotional win at home on Monday Night Football. It was their first game in Las Vegas, and you have to give them credit for playing a great game to beat the Saints. Las Vegas did struggle with the Panthers on the road in week one though, and the Raiders defense is still a major problem. The New England Patriots came up one yard short against the Seattle Seahawks. Cam Newton showed me a lot in that game. Newton looks very good throwing the football, and he is going to be very dangerous behind this solid offensive line in the run game. The Patriots are upset after a tight loss, and Belichick's teams have done great off a straight up and ATS loss in the past. How good have the Pats been in this spot? They are a whopping 29-5 ATS when they have a straight up losing streak of one or two games and an ATS losing streak of 1-3 games and are -7 or lower. It's a great bounce back spot for the Pats and a let down spot for the Raiders. Take New England. | |||||||
| 09-27-20 | Bengals v. Eagles OVER 46 | 23-23 | Push | 0 | 73 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals defense has one sack so far this year. Without Carson Wentz being pressured constantly, I think this Eagles offense can get going here. Cleveland moved the ball at will against Cincinnati last week. Cincinnati's offense will be clearly improved this year. Joe Burrow has looked very good in his first two games. Remember, he didn't get any preseason, and he has still played very well as a rookie in his first two games. The Bengals should be able to take advantage of the Eagles very weak linebackers. Burrow likes to use his tight ends in the passing game, and that should help here. The Eagles should have the lead here (they are a clear favorite), and the Bengals have played extremely fast when trailing so far this year. The Bengals have shown they have backdoor potential and can move the ball quickly late in the game. This one sits below the key numbers of 47 and 48. With no bad weather in the forecast, I like this one to get past the posted total. Take the over. | |||||||
| 09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 47.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins pass defense has struggled badly through their first two weeks. Buffalo threw for more than 400 yards on them a week ago. Byron Jones is doubtful for this game, and he is clearly a very talented member of the Dolphins secondary. Jacksonville's pass offense has been surprisingly effective through the first couple weeks of the season. The Jaguars moved the ball at will against the Titans on Sunday. Gardner Minshew continues to exceed expectations week after week at the quarterback spot. He has a couple nice new weapons this year in Shenault and Eiffert. I think Jacksonville moves it through the air easily in this game. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good over quarterback. He can make the big play downfield, and he can also throw the pick sixes at any time. The Dolphins still have a bunch of speed on the outside, and the Jaguars secondary is a weakness. The offenses have had the edge in the early going in the NFL. Without the fan noise and with the rules set to help offenses as much as possible, I think many of these lower totaled games with two questionable defenses are good over looks. Take the over here. | |||||||
| 09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Las Vegas Raiders open up their new stadium, but they'll do it without fans. This is still a huge game for the franchise. New Orleans is coming off a nice win over the Tampa Bay Bucs in week one. The Saints offense was actually a disappointment though. The Saints only averaged 4.1 yards per play. Michael Thomas is expected to miss this game as well, and he is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL. This limits Drew Brees even further. The Saints don't play quickly, and they don't look to throw it downfield. They are looking for short passes and methodically moving the football. The New Orleans defense is underrated. This is a very good unit. The secondary is excellent and very deep. The Raiders are unlikely to be testing the Saints downfield. I think it is far more likely that the Raiders look to run the football early and often here with Jacobs. Derek Carr doesn't put up huge yardage through the air normally, and the Saints having a defensive coordinator who was previously Carr's coach is helpful to the defense as well. Take the under here. | |||||||
| 09-20-20 | Panthers v. Bucs -9 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 83 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay* The Tampa Bay Bucs lost 34-23 to the New Orleans Saints in week one. While many people were quick to talk about how disappointing Tampa Bay was in that first game, we should take a closer look at that contest and the box score. New Orleans is arguably the best team in the NFC. That was a really tough first game for the Bucs. Tampa Bay outgained New Orleans 310-271. The Bucs averaged 4.8 yards per play, while they held the Saints to only 4.1 yards per play. They were -3 in turnover margin. Tampa Bay's defense looked terrific in week one. Todd Bowles is a great defensive coordinator, and this Bucs defense will improve a lot this season. Tampa Bay's run defense finished first in DVOA last year. They did a great job slowing down Christian McCaffrey in each of their meetings last season. They should do a good job again here. Carolina got almost no pressure on Derek Carr in their loss to the Raiders in week one. I don't think they put much pressure on Brady here either. Carolina's pass rush is one of the weakest in the NFL, and their secondary is extremely banged up. This sets up as a perfect spot for Brady and the Bucs offense to get on track against. Tampa Bay's loss in week one was at least somewhat misleading. Look for them to put up a nice performance here. Take Tampa Bay. | |||||||
| 09-20-20 | 49ers v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers want to run the football early and often, especially with their injury issues right now. Deebo Samuel is out this week. George Kittle is banged up and is questionable here. Kittle might play, but he'll be less than 100 percent. The New York Jets really only do one thing well, and that is stop the run. The front seven has several good run stuffers. The Jets secondary is a weakness and the pass rush isn't very good, but the 49ers likely aren't the team to expose the pass defense weakness in their current form. The Arizona Cardinals moved the ball quite a bit on the 49ers defense last week, but the Jets offense shows no resemblance of the Cardinals offense. The Jets running game is very weak, and Sam Darnold doesn't have enough weapons on the outside either. The 49ers elite pass rush should give Darnold quite a bit of trouble throughout this contest. Look for this game to be played conservatively as the clock keeps ticking away. Take the under. | |||||||
| 09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles -1 | 37-19 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Eagles* The Philadelphia Eagles looked bad in week one. They aren't that bad of a football team. The Eagles defense actually played great in week one. They held Washington to only 3.4 yards per play. Philadelphia's turnovers and missed 4th down conversions put the defense in a lot of bad spots. Philadelphia had all sorts of trouble with the Washington pass rush. The Rams defensive line has a star in Donald, but the guys around him are no better than average. Johnson is expected back on the line this week for the Eagles and that is huge. Peters is also expected back on the offensive line. The Eagles are much healthier than they were last weekend. The Rams played the Sunday night game against Dallas and were helped by several Dallas key mistakes. Los Angeles has a bit less time to prepare than the Eagles here, and they go east for a 1pm start. The Rams offensive line ranked 31st out of 32 in the NFL last season according to Pro Football Focus. The Eagles are extremely strong on the defensive front, and I expect them to give the Rams line a lot of trouble. Jared Goff goes up against a stronger defensive front this week. Goff has struggled on the road and when he doesn't have time to throw. This line is an overreaction to last week's results. Take Philadelphia. | |||||||
| 09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53 | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 33 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys moved the ball just fine last week, but they didn't finish off drives. Atlanta put up a bunch of yards and quite a few points on Seattle last week, but their defense was torched by Seattle in the loss. Sean Lee was already out for Dallas, and then the Cowboys best defender and key linebacker Leighton Vander Esch went down with an injury last week. They can't afford to be without him thanks to a thin LB group, but he's out with an injury and he'll be missed badly. Atlanta has arguably the top wide receiver tandem in the NFL. The Cowboys secondary is mediocre at best this year. Look for Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game to pick up big chunks here. Dallas is one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the Falcons have a bottom five defense in the league. The Cowboys have far too many weapons for Atlanta to slow them down in this one. Dak Prescott has all sorts of weapons around him, and I think they will get on track this week. Dallas' group of receivers is a top 3 group of WR's as well. This one is played on the fast track in Dallas, and both quarterbacks should look great against the opposing secondary. Take the over. | |||||||
| 09-20-20 | Vikings v. Colts OVER 48.5 | 11-28 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Indianapolis' game last week against the Jaguars was misleading. The Colts never punted all game long. They put up more than 400 yards of offense. They had a couple key turnovers and were stopped on 4th down twice. Still, the Colts averaged an impressive 6.4 yards per play. The Minnesota Vikings defense has some major problems in the secondary. Aaron Rodgers was great last week, but those Packers receivers (who outside of Adams aren't all that good) were wide open throughout that game. Minnesota's defensive line is a major weakness without Danielle Hunter as well. The Colts offensive front is one of the best in the NFL, and they should give Phillip Rivers lots of time to throw here. They'll also open up plenty of holes for Taylor to run through. The Vikings run game is very good, and the Colts defensive line is questionable. I think the Vikings will break some big gainers in the run game. Also, I think it is likely the Colts will playing from ahead here, and that will make Minnesota get more aggressive in the passing game. We saw what could happen in a spot like that last week. The Vikings and Packers combined to score a whopping 38 points in the 4th quarter alone. This one is played indoors and that will help both Cousins and Rivers a lot here. Look for plenty of scoring. Take the over. | |||||||
| 09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Rams still have more weapons on offense than many people realize. The wide receivers here are still very solid. Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Van Jefferson should be very productive. Jared Goff has shown he can be a quality NFL quarterback when put in the right spots and when given time. Dallas has a middle of the road pass rush. The Cowboys are also without Jourdan Lewis (CB) for this game. The Rams should play with pace here, and I think they'll get some big gainers on a Dallas defense that has some holes in it. Dallas has an amazing trio of wide receivers that is going to give just about any secondary trouble this year. The Rams still have very good corners, but they aren't as strong at the safety spots this year. The Rams LB's are a major weakness this season, and Dallas should be able to expose this group of LB's both in the running game and the passing game. The last four times these two teams have met the game has gone over the total. Look for a 5th straight over. Take the over here. | |||||||
| 09-13-20 | Cardinals +7 v. 49ers | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Arizona* Week one is a great time to take divisional underdogs in the NFL. Divisional underdogs are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 in week one in the NFL. Also, teams who won six games or less in the previous season and are underdogs on the road in week one are 49-23 ATS in their last 72 games. Arizona has upgraded some on defense, and the addition of Hopkins at wide receiver makes this team far more dangerous offensively. In year two of Kingsbury's offense with Murray at the helm, we should see a big jump in production. The 49ers are banged up to start the season. San Francisco will either be without Deebo Samuel or he'll be playing at far less than 100% here. The 49ers defense should regress a bit in the secondary. Sherman isn't getting any younger and the guys around him aren't quite as good. Arizona played San Francisco very tough last year, and the Cardinals are better than they were a season ago. Take Arizona. | |||||||
| 09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 45 | 43-34 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers didn't get Aaron Rodgers weapons on the outside like he needed. Green Bay is going to have to lean on the running game even more heavily than they did a year ago. I look for the Packers to slow the pace of the game down and lean on their offensive front and the running backs quite a bit here. Minnesota will be among the most run-oriented offenses of anyone in the NFL. The Vikings have less weapons on the outside than they did a year ago, and they know Kirk Cousins can't just take over the game by himself. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. Last year's games finished with 37 and 33 points total. These two teams know what the other one is going to do here, and that should help the defenses a lot. Bill Vinovich's crew will be doing this game and the under is 58-42 in Vinovich's 100 contests. Also, the under is a whopping 17-3 in the Vikings last 20 vs. a divisional opponent. Take the under. | |||||||
| 09-13-20 | Jets v. Bills UNDER 40 | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Jets offense wasn't good to start with, and Robby Anderson was a pretty big loss at wide receiver in the offseason. Without Ryan Kalil at center, they yet again look very weak on the offensive line. The Buffalo Bills have improved skill position talent on offense, but the offensive line still isn't very good. The Jets have a pretty good run stuffing defensive line, and I think they can hold their own in this matchup. The weather here should be a major factor. The weather report calls for a 95% chance of rain during this game with sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts to 26 mph. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative. It will be harder for Buffalo to try to utilize their new weapons at wide receiver. The two contests between these two teams last year finished with 33 points and 19 points total. Take the under. | |||||||
| 09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54 | 20-34 | Push | 0 | 31 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs adds Clyde Edwards-Helaire, which is a scary thought for opposing defenses. He is a great pass catcher out of the backfield, and Patrick Mahomes now has another elite pass catching option. Kansas City put up 51 points on Houston in the playoffs last year in that wild come from behind win. Houston's defense is no better than last season, and it might even be weaker. Kansas City's secondary makes them vulnerable against good passing attacks. The secondary is already a relative weakness, but now they are without Bashaud Breeland. Breeland is a very solid player and a key loss for this defense. Houston will take some shots downfield, and I think they'll have some success there. The Texans are likely to be behind throughout which would make them more aggressive and play faster. The weather conditions are expected to be nice here with very little wind. Look for both quarterbacks to have a big game and this to be a fun high scoring contest. Take the over. | |||||||
| 02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs -1 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 135 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Kansas City* The Kansas City Chiefs are the side I'll be backing in the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Andy Reid has gotten a bad rap from some, but this guy has been a tremendous coach for a long time. Reid has been money in the bank after a bye, and obviously the Super Bowl is played after a week off, so he has extra time to get his team ready for this game. While the Kansas City defense wasn't good earlier this year, they really improved as the year went along. The Chiefs have a quality secondary, and they have a strong pass rush as well. Jimmy G has been good enough for the 49ers this year, but he isn't a guy I trust in a big game. It has looked like Shanahan doesn't trust him a lot either. The 49ers have yet to play a great offense in the playoffs, but that ends here. The Chiefs offense has been the best in the NFL in the last few weeks after Mahomes got healthy. There have been a few teams who have exploited this 49ers defense at times this year (Saints, Falcons, and Rams in the 2nd meeting). The 49ers are certainly a quality team, but they are a young group. If the 49ers get behind by double digits here, they are likely to be out of this one. If the Chiefs get behind, we know they have the ability to come back from behind as they did in their first couple playoff games. Take Kansas City here. | |||||||
| 01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs -7 | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Kansas City* The Baltimore Ravens were 10 point home favorites over the Tennessee Titans last week. Baltimore lost that game 28-12. Still, the Ravens did outgain the Titans by 230 yards. Yes, I know they were playing from behind all the way, but the Ravens went 0/4 on 4th down there and they had the key turnovers. The Titans defense didn't look very good on the whole. Tennessee is a good team. The Titans are playing their third straight playoff game on the road. They were able to take advantage of a flawed Patriots team to win on the road in their first game. They were fortunate last week in that the Ravens really handed the game away with the turnovers and missed 4th down conversions. I rate Kansas City as the best team in the NFL. The Chiefs have a superstar at quarterback in Patrick Maholmes. When he has been healthy this year, KC hasn't lost a game. After Baltimore was laying 10 at home against the Titans the number has been adjusted down by 3 points for the Titans playing at Kansas City. I don't agree with that. Kansas City has a better home field advantage than does Baltimore. The Chiefs are at least on par with Baltimore as a team, and I would argue they are slightly better. Kansas City was one play from the Super Bowl last year. I expect Kansas City to come out ready to play in this one after a slow start last week. The Titans have an extremely weak secondary, and you better believe this Chiefs passing attack can exploit that. Ryan Tannehill has been good this year, but I don't trust him to keep up with the Chiefs offense if the Titans are playing from behind. Take Kansas City. | |||||||
| 01-12-20 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Packers | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Seattle* Both of these have been overrated throughout the season based on their yards per play differentials being very weak. I see this as a very even game. Russell Wilson has played the best of the two quarterbacks this season. Seattle's wide receivers have been making big plays late in the season. Green Bay's secondary has been a bit disappointing compared to expectations. The Seahawks play a ton of very close games. Getting 4.5 points in a game they are involved in means more than it would with anyone team. Seattle has made it a habit of covering on the road against good teams. Seattle is 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games on the road against a team with a winning record. They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a road underdog. Neither of these teams are great, but one of them will be in the NFC title game. This feels like a coin flip to me. I'll grab the points. Take Seattle. | |||||||
| 01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens UNDER 47 | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 77 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans offense was good late in the season. Ryan Tannehill is clearly an upgrade from Marcus Mariota. Still, the Titans offense didn't face many good defenses during that time. How did Tannehill and the Titans look offensively last week? They played a great defense in the Patriots, but Tannehill didn't look good. He was only 8/15 for 72 yards passing and 1 TD and 1 INT. Derrick Henry got 34 carries in that game. Overall, the Titans had 40 rushing plays compared to only 16 passing plays. Is that a look at what they want to do in this game too? Yes, I would think the Titans want to play keep away and move slowly and run the ball to try to keep it away from the Ravens offense. Baltimore is clearly elite on offense, but the Ravens do run the ball at a good clip too. There is likely to be a lot of ticking clock here. The Titans are a pretty good run defense. Baltimore will get their yards, but the Titans are more likely to keep them from explosive plays than most defenses would be. The weather here calls for 16 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. Rain is likely at least part of the time on Saturday night as well. This kind of weather would be helpful to the under. A game that would likely have conservative play calling would get even more conservative. Take the under. | |||||||
| 01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 49 | 26-20 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints offense played very well down the stretch. After their 26-9 strange loss to the Falcons, the Saints have averaged 34.2 points per game on offense. Minnesota is often thought of as a strong defensive team. That was the case a couple years ago, but that isn't the case any more. The Vikings have major problems in the secondary. This is a bottom six or eight secondary in the NFL overall. The Saints passing game is consistently good enough that I would expect them to expose the Vikings weaknesses here. Dalvin Cook will be back for the Vikings offense, and that makes a massive difference. The Vikings have been very explosive in the running game, and Cook makes the passing game much better as well. Kirk Cousins has a lot of weapons around him. The Saints are banged up defensively, and I think that hurts them in this game. The over has done well in playoff games in domes. In fact, the over is 29-13 in the last 42 playoff games played in a dome. I think both offenses have the upper hand here. Take the over. | |||||||
| 12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens +2 | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Ravens* John Harbaugh has made it no secret that he wants to win football games, even when they don't mean anything. How has Baltimore done in the preseason? The Ravens have won an amazing 17 straight games in the preseason. Maybe no one else cares then, but the Ravens certainly do. Harbaugh has said he believes winning football games can become habitual, and he wants to see his team win. Baltimore doesn't have to win this game, and they are wise to sit out key players like Jackson and Ingram here. Still, Baltimore has proven they are a really deep team. The Ravens have a good backup in RG3 and he is playing behind a strong offensive line. Pittsburgh has an outside chance at the playoffs still. The Steelers will be playing hard. They are on third string quarterback Duck Hodges though, and that is a major problem. It's also a big problem that they are without Pouncey on the offensive line and Conner in the backfield. The Ravens defense isn't great at stopping the run, but the Steelers aren't very good at running it right now. Pittsburgh controlled their own destiny before last week. They had to win at New York and they had to win this game. They lost to the Jets. The Steelers will want to win here, but I'm not sure they can. Baltimore would be glad to beat their rival and keep them out of the playoffs. Take Baltimore. | |||||||
| 12-29-19 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 46 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much better than most people realize. In the second half of the season, the Chiefs defense has put up some tremendous numbers. Kansas City's secondary is now one of the best in the NFL. I don't see the Chargers having the running game to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs either. The Chargers are without their top two offensive linemen, and that has hurt them a lot down the stretch. Phillip Rivers has become a liability for the Chargers. I expect him to struggle against this strong KC pass rush and strong Chiefs secondary. Kansas City's offense actually ranks among the five slowest in the NFL in the last half of the season in pace of play. The Chiefs have slowed down their tempo drastically. Kansas City is still very good offensively, but the Chargers defense has been good at limiting big plays. The Chiefs as home favorites under Andy Reid have been great to under bettors. In fact, when Kansas City is a favorite of 8.5 points or more at home the under is 24-6-2 in the last 32 contests. The Chiefs are likely to have the lead here, and I could see them sitting on this game late. The weather is a question mark here too. Winds of 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph are forecast for this game. That is clearly a positive for the under. Take the under. | |||||||
| 12-22-19 | Steelers v. Jets +3.5 | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jets* The Pittsburgh Steelers offense is really weak right now. Yes, the Steelers have an excellent defense. Can the Steelers be laying this price on the road though against a team who has played well at home? I don't think so. Pittsburgh was fortunate to beat Arizona on the road (punt return TD) and the Steelers narrowly defeated the Bengals on the road as well. Sam Darnold has played well at home this year. The Jets defense has been tremendous at stopping the run. What will Pittsburgh do here? The Steelers will want to run the ball, but I'm not sure that they can. Hodges had an ugly game last week, and they likely don't trust him much at this point. There is clearly sharp involvement here on the Jets, and I will back the home team here as well. I think the Jets have a real chance of winning outright, but this is a very low totaled game so I'll grab the points and I'll sprinkle just a little on the moneyline as well. Take the New York Jets. | |||||||
| 12-15-19 | Falcons +11 v. 49ers | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Falcons* The Atlanta Falcons have been playing hard of late. This defense has improved drastically in recent weeks. They have been strong against the run. San Francisco is a run heavy team, and I think that plays into the strength of this Atlanta defense. San Francisco is coming off a road trip where they lost by 3 to Baltimore in a hard fought game and then beat the Saints in an epic last second victory last weekend. San Francisco is batting Seattle for the division. They host the LA Rams next week in a big game. They then go to Seattle in their final game. Both of those games are games they should be more motivated in than in this spot. This is a sandwich spot where I would expect the 49ers to be happy to get out with a win and not look to get a margin. I'll grab the double digit points here. Take Atlanta. | |||||||
| 12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans OVER 48 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 155 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans offense has really improved drastically under Ryan Tannehill. I don't think anyone could have expected the Titans to get this much better with the quarterback change. Marcus Mariota just wasn't getting it done, and Tannehill has been much more aggressive. The fact that Tannehill is looking downfield more often and is keeping opposing defenses honest has made things easier on the Titans running game as well. The over is 7-0 in the 7 games Tannehill has started since the quarterback change. Only one of those games fell below this number. Houston played terribly in their loss to Denver. The Texans need to put it back together here. I do think Houston has the ability to take advantage of the Titans primary weakness on defense (their secondary). Tennessee hasn't been tested in the secondary many times of late, but they face a great quarterback and some excellent receivers here. Both of these teams are willing to take deep shots and both teams have question marks at the safety spots. I see both offenses having quite a bit of success here. Take the over. | |||||||
| 12-15-19 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 45.5 | 3-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos defense has played well in recent weeks. Denver seems like a team that wants to play hard to the end of the season. Fangio deserves some credit for keeping this team interested after a really poor start to the season. The Kansas City defense has played very well of late. They are still susceptible against the run, but this is a much improved secondary. Patrick Mahomes is clearly not 100% healthy now, and that has hurt the Chiefs ability to get big plays on offense. The Chiefs have a long history of playing unders when they are big favorites at home. When Kansas City is a home favorite of 6 points or more the under is 39-17 in their last 56 games. When the total is at least 44.5- the under is a whopping 22-5. The weather here looks helpful for the under. Winds of about 12 mph with snow are likely during this game. That should make both teams more cautious with their play calling. Take the under. | |||||||
| 12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams -105 | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 51 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Rams ML* The Seattle Seahawks have been extremely fortunate this year. Seattle is 14th in the NFL in yards per play margin and yet they are somehow 10-2. Seattle is +10 in turnover margin which is likely to regress toward the mean. They also can't keep winning every single close game they play in. This game means more to the LA Rams than the Seahawks. Seattle would definitely benefit from winning as well since they are in a race with San Francisco, but the Rams need this win badly if they are to have any chance at making the playoffs. Jared Goff is a mediocre quarterback, but at home he has been much better. He faces a Seattle secondary that is far weaker than many realize. The Rams have plenty of good weapons on the outside, and I think he'll have a lot of open receivers here. The Rams should have won in Seattle earlier this year. They missed a FG right at the end of that game. Seattle is coming off an emotional win on Monday night. The Rams had some extra rest and time to prepare. I'll look for some regression from Seattle, and I'll back the Rams in a huge game for them. Take the Rams on the moneyline. | |||||||
| 12-08-19 | Steelers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Pittsburgh Steelers have major injury issues on offense. Duck Hodges is now the starter at quarterback. He hasn't necessarily done anything wrong, but he is clearly a below average NFL starting quarterback. He doesn't have much help around him either. Smith-Schuster and Conner are both out for this game and that is a big hit to the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh's defense has carried them this year. The Steelers defense in its current state is a top five defense in the NFL. They have been able to force a ton of turnovers and they have a good red zone defense. Arizona's offense has been very up and down. The Cardinals have put up some big yardage numbers in the fourth quarter (garbage time) of some losses. Kyler Murray is coming off a really poor game and he is less than 100 percent healthy. The under is 23-4 in the Steelers last 27 road games where they are a favorite. They have played a lot of tight low scoring games. I think that happens again here. Take the under. | |||||||
| 12-08-19 | Panthers v. Falcons UNDER 47.5 | 20-40 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons defense has played much better of late. Atlanta has allowed 347 yards or less in four of their last five games. Atlanta is giving up 368 yards per game for the season, but their defense has been trending quickly in the right direction. It's also important to point out that Atlanta has played the toughest slate of opposing offenses in the NFL so far this season. Some more positive regression to the mean is likely. The Atlanta offense has been disappointing. Matt Ryan appears to be playing at far less than 100 percent. The Falcons running game is inconsistent as well. Carolina's defense is stronger in the secondary. I'm not sure Atlanta can consistently take advantage of the Carolina weakness against the run. Carolina's offense has really tailed off in recent weeks. They are too dependent on McCaffrey. He is great, but they don't have enough around him. Opposing teams are scheming to stop him more and more, and the Panthers haven't been able to make them pay. Take the under here. | |||||||
| 12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 48.5 | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Seahawks secondary is a major weakness. Even without Thielen, the Vikings have plenty of weapons to take advantage of this weakness. Kirk Cousins has been playing great football of late. He has an elite tight end to throw the ball to, and the group of receivers here are still above average. The Vikings secondary which was once seen as a strength is now showing by the numbers as a weakness. Minnesota is likely to give up some big plays here to Russell Wilson and his solid group of receivers. Minnesota has had 5 of their last 6 games reach at least 49 points. The only one in that stretch that didn't was a win over the lowly Redskins. The Vikings games have been sailing over the posted total. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Seattle is giving up 24 points per game. With the move below the key number of 49, I like the value on the over here. Take the over. | |||||||
| 12-01-19 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 51 | 9-40 | Win | 100 | 61 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs host the Oakland Raiders in a divisional battle on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City is a double digit favorite in this game. Oakland is going to do everything they can do to run the football as many times as possible here and keep the ball away from Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs aren't giving up too many big plays in the running game, but they are susceptible to giving up a few yards every time. I think Oakland can take quite a bit of time off the clock here. Kansas City has been a great under team off a bye with Andy Reid. That's partially because the Chiefs have been winning nearly every game off a bye with Reid. That helps because Reid and the Chiefs do slow the tempo down and get far more conservative later in the game with a lead. The under is 37-15 in the last 52 times Kansas City was a home favorite of 5.5 points or more. The weather will be a factor in this game too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20-22 mph and gusts of 35 mph or higher. That should lead to a few less big plays. Take the under. | |||||||
| 11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 | 26-15 | Loss | -109 | 48 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys are a much better team than the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are a decent team, but they aren't nearly as good as their record would indicate. The Bills have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, and it isn't even close. Buffalo has beaten teams who are 19-53 on the season. The Bills defense has played the weakest slate of offenses so far this year. Buffalo's defense is pretty good, but they are up against an elite offense in Dallas. In fact, the Cowboys rank number one in the NFL in yards per play at 6.71 for the season. Buffalo was blasted at home against the Eagles in a test earlier this year. They also lost on the road against a mediocre Cleveland team. This is a road game on a short week, which is a clear negative, and they are playing against a far superior team. Dallas hasn't been great in recent games, but this is a good get right spot for them. Take the Cowboys. | |||||||
| 11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 38 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans offense has been significantly better with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback vs. Marcus Mariota. Mariota wasn't taking enough chances, and he was holding onto the football too long. The Titans have scored 28.75 points per game in their last four contests. The running game has been solid all along, but now opposing defenses have to respect their downfield passing attack. The Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has been a big problem this year, and I expect the Titans to take advantage of that here. The Titans defense has been solid this year, but they haven't faced that many strong offenses. The Titans have still allowed a lot of big plays. Tennessee has given up 9 plays of 30 yards or more (23rd in the NFL). Jacksonville has allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more (30th in the NFL). The Titans are far more capable of taking advantage and getting those big plays than they have been in the past. The weather looks good for this game and the total is set very low. Take the over. | |||||||
| 11-24-19 | Raiders v. Jets +3 | 3-34 | Win | 103 | 35 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jets* The New York Jets have definitely played better in recent weeks. The Jets were an awful team without Sam Darnold. They simply didn't have another decent option. Darnold has been a bit up and down since returning, but he is far better than any other quarterback they have on their roster. Oakland relies heavily on the running game. The Raiders rank top 5 in the NFL in percentage of offensive plays that are a run. The New York Jets defense is 1st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Raiders have played tight games recently against some very weak opponents (Bengals and Lions). Those were both at home. Now, Oakland must go on the road and take on a Jets team playing with confidence. Oakland ranks 19th in special teams DVOA and the Jets are 3rd. The Jets are -6 in turnover margin this year, and that should regress some over time. Getting the full 3 is key here, and I like the spot for the home team. Take the Jets. | |||||||
| 11-24-19 | Dolphins v. Browns OVER 45.5 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns haven't played a below average defense all season thus far. It's pretty amazing to think about that this deep in the season that would be the case, but the Browns offense has been up against so far this year. That changes here when they face one of the two or three worst defenses in the NFL in the Miami Dolphins. Baker Mayfield has slowly started to look a bit better. The Browns offense is pretty healthy right now, and the Dolphins secondary is banged up and is a big weakness. The Browns running game has been solid all year. Miami's offensive stats are skewed for the season. The Dolphins were horrible without Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. That's not to say that they are great with him, but they are much better than they were with Rosen at quarterback. Fitzpatrick can be a positive for the over for two reasons. He takes a lot of chances and can get big plays for his team. He can also create big plays for the other team in the form of picks that create a short field. With the Browns without Garrett their pass rush is much weaker than normal. Take the over. | |||||||
| 11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 41 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have proven what they are at this point. The Bears are a team with a really good defense and a terrible offense. Trubisky isn't the answer at QB, and the offensive line in front of him has been a disappointment as well. Does that sound familiar? The Rams defense isn't as good as the Bears, and the Rams offense is better than the Bears, but there are a lot of similarities here. Jared Goff has been a huge disappointment. The Rams offensive line is a mess. They haven't been good and they are banged up as well. These two teams met each other last year and the Bears won 15-6. I couldn't expect a game that low scoring again, but I do think it will be a defensive battle. The Bears have played six games to a total of 36 points or lower this year. The Rams have played five games to a total of 36 points or lower this year. Take the under. | |||||||
| 11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 50 | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs defense has allowed 33.42 points per game in their last seven games. Tampa Bay's pass defense is absolutely horrendous. Vernon Hargreaves hadn't performed up to what was expected, but releasing him definitely didn't make this secondary any better. Tampa Bay has only allowed less than 27 points in a single game all year. That was their win over Carolina early in the year where Cam Newton was clearly hurt. This Bucs defense is really bad. New Orleans has scored 40, 28, and 31 points against Tampa Bay in the last three meetings. Coming off a bad performance last week, I would expect the Saints offense to bounce back in a big way here. The Saints defense will likely be without Marshon Lattimore, and he is the key to the Saints secondary. Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston is inconsistent, but the Bucs are loaded at wide receiver and they should be able to move the ball and score plenty in this one too. The over is 7-0 in the Bucs last 7. Take the over. | |||||||
| 11-17-19 | Jets +2.5 v. Redskins | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jets* I have to fade the Washington Redskins here. Haskins simply does not look ready. The Redskins haven't surrounded him with much either. Washington badly wants to run the football right now, but the Jets defense is excellent against the run. In fact, the Jets rank number one in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Sam Darnold has been up and down this year, but I definitely feel better about him than Haskins at this point. The Jets also seem to want to win, and the Redskins have been rumored to be tanking this season. In a game that should be really ugly and low scoring, I'll always want to lean toward taking the points. In this case, I definitely want the points since the Jets defense should force Haskins to beat them. Take the New York Jets. | |||||||
| 11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys UNDER 48.5 | 28-24 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys are two of the most run heavy teams in the NFL. Minnesota ranks 3rd highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a rush. Dallas ranks 6th highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a run. These two run defenses have been excellent at not giving up big running plays this year. Dallas has allowed only one run all year of 20 yards or more. That's the best in the NFL. Minnesota has allowed only two runs of 20 yards or more so far this year. That's second best in the NFL. With a lot of running plays and teams who have been good at avoiding giving up big plays, I see a lot of moving clock and long drives here. If we get some drives where they take a lot of time off the clock and kick a field goal or don't score at all, it's a big plus for the under. Take the under. | |||||||
| 11-10-19 | Panthers +5 v. Packers | 16-24 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Green Bay Packers run defense is a major problem. Christian McCaffrey has been great all season, and I expect a big game from him here. The Panthers run game is excellent, and Kyle Allen has been doing a nice job dumping the ball off to the backs out of the backfield. Green Bay ranks in the bottom five defenses in the NFL in pass defense against running backs. Look for Carolina to consistently move the football on Green Bay here. Look for them to have long scoring drives. Carolina has the most sacks in the NFL. Green Bay's offensive line is middle of the road. Carolina should be able to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers here. Carolina is beatable on the ground, but Green Bay's ground game hasn't been consistent this year. Green Bay has been fortunate multiple times at home this year (Vikings, Lions, and even Raiders to a lesser extent). The Packers aren't as good as their record would indicate. Take Carolina and the points. | |||||||
| 11-10-19 | Dolphins v. Colts OVER 43.5 | 16-12 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins offense has been middle of the pack the last few weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually playing pretty well right now. It's clear he is a big improvement from Josh Rosen. The Dolphins should be able to move the ball here against a Colts defense that is mediocre at best. Brian Hoyer gets the start here and the Colts are definitely short handed on offense, but this Miami defense is very bad. Miami has faced the 28th toughest slate of offenses this year, but still ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They have been especially bad in the secondary, and they have a cluster injury problem in the secondary right now. Even with the Colts banged up on offense, I think Frank Reich and this Colts offense will have a good game plan to take advantage of this Miami secondary. This is a low total for a dome with two questionable defenses. Take the over. | |||||||
| 11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants OVER 47.5 | 37-18 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys are first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas had a bye week to get ready for this game. The Cowboys put it on Philadelphia in their last game. They should be up for this game though. They lost at New York against the lowly Jets earlier this year, and the Giants and Cowboys don't like each other. The Giants offense has shown the ability to move the ball pretty well this year when they are healthy. They have their skill position stars back in Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram. They should be able to make enough big plays to score a decent amount. The Giants secondary is a bottom five group in the NFL, and I expect Dak Prescott and his healthy group of receivers to beat them once again here. Ezekiel Elliot is a top two or three back in the NFL and he'll get his as well. I think this total is set too low. Take the over. | |||||||
| 11-03-19 | Packers v. Chargers OVER 48.5 | 11-26 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers offense has been on fire of late. Green Bay is averaging 32.3 points per game in their last six games. Aaron Rodgers and the passing attack have gotten it going. Now, Davante Adams is slated to come back from his injury in this one barring a setback in pregame warmups. Green Bay should be able to take advantage of a Chargers secondary that is weak at the safety spot. Injuries have really hurt that unit. The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator, and I think this offense will be more aggressive and move a little quicker under their new offensive coordinator. Phillip Rivers still has some pretty good playmakers around him. Green Bay has allowed 11 plays of 40 yards or more (worst in the NFL), so the Packers can be beaten deep. We are under the key number of 49 here, and I'll back the over in this spot. Take the over. | |||||||
| 11-03-19 | Lions v. Raiders OVER 50 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions offense is more pass heavy without Johnson at running back. Detroit is 5th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, so the Lions have been able to get quite a few big gainers in the passing game. The Raiders pass defense ranks 28th in yards per pass allowed. Matt Stafford and this Lions passing attack should have a lot of success here. Oakland has been good both on the ground and through the air this year. The Raiders rank 6th in the NFL in yards per play. Detroit ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Darius Slay is banged up and is questionable. Mike Daniels is also questionable for the Lions defense. They aren't that good to begin with, and now they are short handed. Both of these teams have given up far more big plays than the average team in the NFL. Expect a lot of explosive plays in this one. The weather looks good in this one, and the number has dropped a little. I think the over is a nice value here. Take the over. | |||||||
| 11-03-19 | Bucs +5.5 v. Seahawks | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Tampa Bay* The Tampa Bay Bucs are 2-5 this year, but the Bucs are +0.22 ypp margin which is 12th in the NFL so far this year. That's impressive when you consider the schedule Tampa Bay has played thus far. Tampa Bay has played the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL. The Bucs have road wins at Carolina and against the LA Rams. They absolutely should have won last week at Tennessee as well. Tampa Bay is far better than their record would indicate. Seattle is always far worse than their record would indicate. The Seahawks are 6-2, but they have played the 25th toughest schedule in the NFL so far this year. Seattle has a -0.26 ypp margin on the year (23rd) even against that very weak schedule. The Seahawks are getting too much respect at home right now. They beat the Bengals by a point at home. They were fortunate to beat the Rams by a point at home. They also were beaten handily by the Ravens at home. The Tampa Bay run defense ranks 1st in the NFL. Seattle runs at the 4th highest percentage of any team in the NFL. Seattle's defense isn't good anymore, and I think the Bucs star receivers have big advantages against this Seattle secondary. Grab the points. Take Tampa Bay. | |||||||
| 11-03-19 | Texans v. Jaguars +1 | 26-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Early Morning CASH* The Houston Texans have cluster injuries in the secondary. Houston is now also without their star pass rusher J.J. Watt after he went down with an injury last week. Gardner Minshew has been really good for the Jaguars at quarterback. He doesn't have a cannon for an arm, but he is an accurate passer and he can keep plays alive with his feet. The Jaguars running game is much improved this year (4.8 yards per carry), and the Jaguars should have a balanced attack that is tough for Houston to slow down. The Texans offense is all about keeping Watson upright. The offensive line is better than past years, but they are still the biggest weakness for the team. The Jaguars rank third in the NFL in sacks. Minshew and the Jaguars lost 13-12 to Houston on the road earlier this year. The Jaguars outgained the Texans in that game. Houston's injuries are far worse now than they were in that first game. Also, Jacksonville goes to London every single year. The Jaguars are 3-1 in their last 4 games in London. Many coaches have said it is very hard to play this game for teams who aren't accustomed to the long flight and different setup. Houston is playing this London game for the first time here. This is a clear advantage for Jacksonville. Take Jacksonville. | |||||||
| 10-27-19 | Raiders v. Texans OVER 51.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -108 | 52 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oakland Raiders offenses has had some really nice schemes planned this year. Jon Gruden is doing a good job putting Derek Carr in good spots. The Oakland running game is better than expected this year as well. Oakland's defense is terrible. The Raiders are especially weak in the secondary. They just traded away Gareon Conley to the Texans. Conley was the most talented player the Raiders had in the secondary. Oakland was already getting torched by opposing quarterbacks, and it won't get better now. Oakland allowed Aaron Rodgers and a bunch of backup WR's to light them up last week. Houston's last three games have finished with 85, 55, and 53 points. The Texans defense is giving up a lot of big plays. Houston's offense is hitting a lot more big gainers through the air too. Oakland and Houston have both improved on the offensive line compared to last year. Look for both teams to move the ball with ease in the dome at Houston on Sunday. Take the over. | |||||||
| 10-27-19 | Panthers v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | 13-51 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This San Francisco 49ers defense is the real deal. Their defensive front is arguably the best in the NFL. San Francisco is doing a great job keeping everything in front of them. The 49ers have only allowed 12 plays of 20 yards or more all year long. That is the best in the NFL. Carolina's defense ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Panthers don't have any clear weaknesses on this side of the football. With a solid group of linebackers, the Panthers should be good all year on defense. The weather forecast for this game calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph during this game. That is enough wind to change the game a lot. That kind of weather tends to make teams far more conservative. That should mean more running clock and that clearly helps the under. Take the under here. | |||||||
| 10-27-19 | Chargers v. Bears UNDER 41 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears defense is absolutely loaded. The Bears defense ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Bears have faced the 10th toughest slate of offenses so far this year as well. The Bears have dominated on defense at times this year, and I think they will be very good here after losing a couple straight contests. They need this game. The Chargers offense is 12th in yards per play this year. They have faced the 28th toughest slate of defenses. This is easily the best defense they have had to go up against this year. The Bears offense is still a mess. Chicago has only 14 plays of 20 yards or more all season. They have only 1 play of 40 yards or more. The Chargers defense isn't great, but they have had poor fumble luck and they are good at preventing big plays. I don't see either team consistently driving up and down the field here. There is expected to be a 10-12 mph sustained wind at Soldier Field with gusts up to 20 mph during this one. Take the under. | |||||||
| 10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 176 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Patriots are an under team to me until proven otherwise. Even in their game last week the under was the right side, but there were 3 special teams/defensive touchdowns to send the game just barely above the total. New England has slowed their pace down dramatically this year and they are leaning on the running game more often. Tom Brady isn't surrounded by as many playmakers as he was in the past. The Patriots defense this year is amazing. New England is a top two or three defense in the NFL (they might be the best). The Jets hit some big plays against the Cowboys, but I don't think as many of those big gainers will be available against this Pats defense. The Jets play at a very slow pace and rely on the ground game a lot. We should see a lot of moving clock in this one. Take the under. | |||||||
| 10-20-19 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 49 | 10-37 | Loss | -109 | 49 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Eagles and Cowboys is always a heated contest. Philadelphia and Dallas both have quality quarterbacks and good skill position players around them. Carson Wentz has been a bit up and down in his time in the league, but he has a high upside and I think he is trending in the right direction. The Eagles have been able to get more big gainers of late, and I think they have some matchups they can exploit against a Dallas secondary that is badly banged up right now. The Cowboys rank first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas hasn't cashed in touchdowns often enough, but I would expect that to improve. The Eagles secondary has been a problem all year long. Jerome Boger's crew is calling this game. They are well known for defensive penalties and high scoring games. The over is 97-69 in Boger's crews contests all time. Take the over. | |||||||
| 10-20-19 | 49ers v. Redskins UNDER 43 | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 161 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Redskins have a new coach in Callahan, and he has made it clear he wants to run the football early and often. They will have a slow tempo and be far more conservative. The Redskins had 33 rushing plays on Sunday against the Dolphins. I expect to see them try to run it and keep the ball away from the 49ers offense. San Francisco's defense has been amazing so far this year. Their performance against the Browns opened a lot of eyes, and then they backed it up with an even more impressive performance defensively against the Rams on Sunday. The 49ers defensive line is excellent and the secondary is one of the best in the NFL. San Francisco has the highest percentage of running plays of any team in the NFL so far this year. They'll run the ball and eat up a lot of clock as well here. With a moving clock and a Redskins offense that is unlikely to be able to do much here, I see a low scoring contest. Take the under. | |||||||
| 10-13-19 | Cowboys v. Jets UNDER 45 | 22-24 | Loss | -117 | 37 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Cowboys rank first in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas has an above average offense, but they aren't the best offense in the NFL. They have played the weakest schedule of defenses of anyone in the NFL so far this year. Dallas has taken advantage of the Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins in 3 of their first 5 games. The New York Jets rank dead last in the NFL in yards per play. The Jets get Darnold back this weekend, but he isn't likely to fix this offense right away. Dallas' defense should come into this game upset after struggling last week against Green Bay. The Jets have the slowest pace of play in the NFL, and I expect them to try to run the ball a lot and keep the Dallas offense off the field. The under is 26-10 in the Cowboys last 36 road games. With the move up during the week, I see value on the under. Take the under here. | |||||||
| 10-13-19 | Falcons v. Cardinals OVER 47 | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 166 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals offense had a lot of success against Cincinnati last weekend. I don't think the Cardinals offense will be all that good against quality defenses this year, but I do think they'll have a lot of success against the bottom of the barrel defenses. The Atlanta Falcons secondary is an absolute nightmare. Dan Quinn's defense is blowing assignments and giving up way too many big plays. Kyler Murray had a confidence building game last weekend, and I expect him to have a good game here. Arizona's secondary is a big problem as well. Matt Ryan and the Falcons still have a lot of weapons on the outside. Look for Ryan to find a lot of open receivers on Sunday afternoon in Arizona. A lot of tempo in this one and this number is too low. Take the over. | |||||||
| 10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Rams* The San Francisco 49ers have had a really good year thus far. San Francisco is about to get their biggest test of the season though. The 49ers played the game on Monday night against Cleveland. The Rams had a bunch of extra time off since they played last Thursday against Seattle (in a game they should have won). The Rams aren't going to look past the 49ers in any way here. Sean McVay teams are 6-1 ATS when they have the rest advantage. They have the rest advantage here. Jared Goff has put up good numbers at home, and he still has good weapons around him. The 49ers have a couple very key injuries in FB Kyle Juszcyk and OL Mike McGLinchey who are out. The Rams pass rush should bother the 49ers a lot here. This is a chance to buy low on the Rams and sell high on the 49ers. The 49ers are good and much improved, but the Rams are still better and are in the much better situational spot. Take the Rams. | |||||||
| 10-13-19 | Bengals +11 v. Ravens | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on the Bengals* The Baltimore Ravens have played a really weak schedule so far this year. Baltimore has played the 3rd easiest schedule in the NFL so far this year. Baltimore has played both Miami and Arizona already this year. They took on a Steelers team with severe injury troubles as well. Perception of Baltimore in the marketplace got too high after their blowout over the Dolphins in week one. The Ravens struggled to beat Arizona at home. They were fortunate to win against Pittsburgh last week. Baltimore ranks second to last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. It's hard to win by a margin when your defense is as bad as the Ravens. They have a lot of injury issues on defense and it is showing up in a big way. Cincinnati isn't a good team. The Bengals have played two very close games on the road though already this year. Those games were at Seattle and at Buffalo. The Bengals have played the 8th toughest schedule in the NFL this year. Cincinnati should be better offensively since the Ravens don't have a very good pass rush. Baltimore should win here, but the Bengals are catching too many points in an AFC North battle. Take Cincinnati. | |||||||
| 10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots UNDER 45 | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots have been a great under team this year. The Patriots defense is a top two or three unit in the NFL. The Patriots haven't allowed more than 14 points in a game all year. The game they allowed 14 points in was when the Jets scored twice on defense. In all, the Patriots defense has only allowed 20 points in five games. With the Giants likely playing without Saquon Barkley again, it's hard to see Daniel Jones and the Giants having much success here. They struggled badly to get going against the Vikings in their last game. The Patriots offense has slowed the pace down a lot from last year. They are also playing more conservatively. The Giants defense isn't good, but they have at least improved in recent weeks. The weather forecast here calls for possible showers and gusty winds. That should make both teams more conservative, and it is definitely a positive for the under. Take the under here. | |||||||
| 10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers OVER 46.5 | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Over* We finally get a good Monday Night Football game, and I expect there to be quite a few points scored on both sides in this one. While the 49ers defensive numbers look great so far this year, they have faced an extremely weak slate of offenses thus far. They faced Tampa Bay in their first game in a new offense. They faced a terrible Bengals team. They also faced the Steelers in Mason Rudolph's first game as a starter on the road. The 49ers defense isn't bad, but they aren't nearly as good as their statistics look so far this season. Cleveland's defense has faced a slightly below average slate of offenses as well. The Browns were able to take advantage of the Jets without Darnold. They were torched by the Titans earlier this year. They gave up quite a bit to the Ravens last week as well. The Browns offense is better than they have shown so far this year. Baker Mayfield should improve with his accuracy at least to some degree, and I would expect bigger games from OBJ. San Francisco hasn't been slowed down consistently by anyone so far this year, and I really like this 49ers offense. They are a well-coached unit and they have enough talent at the skill positions to do some damage. Jerome Boger's crew is doing this game, and that is great news for over bettors. The over is 97-67 in this crew's games. This is the best over crew in the NFL. Take the over. | |||||||
| 10-06-19 | Patriots v. Redskins UNDER 45.5 | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 155 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots have a top three defense in the NFL. The Patriots have allowed a grand total of 13 points on the defensive side of the ball. They haven't played a really good offense yet, but they won't play a good offense in this one either. Washington is banged up on the offensive line. The Redskins went to Dwayne Haskins Jr. on Sunday and it didn't go well at all. Haskins may or may not start here, but regardless of who starts in this game I don't see Washington scoring more than 10 points or so. This Patriots defenses is good at avoiding giving up the big play, and I don't see Washington putting together long drives on them. The Patriots offense ranks near the bottom of the NFL in yards per play. By the end of the year, they should be better, but right now they aren't better than mediocre on offense. They are calling a lot more safe play calls, and Sony Michel is getting the ball a lot. The Redskins will give up points here because their defense isn't very good. Still, the Patriots have shown they are willing to slow down the tempo this year and run the ball which helps the under a lot here. Take the under. | |||||||
| 10-06-19 | Vikings -5 v. Giants | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The New York Giants defense is really bad. The Giants secondary is arguably the worst in the NFL. The linebackers weren't all that bad at the start of the season, but due to injuries they are very weak now. Alec Ogletree, Tae Davis, and Ryan Connelly are all out. Minnesota has a strong offensive line and a great running game. They should be able to take advantage of the Giants weakness at linebacker. Kirk Cousins has a history of playing poorly against good teams and playing well against weak defenses. He gets his chance against a really weak Giants defense here. Daniel Jones is an upgrade from Eli Manning, but without Saquon Barkley and without all that many weapons around him, he is likely to find it difficult going against a top five or six defense in the NFL in the Vikings. Minnesota has been great at bouncing back from a loss. The Vikings are 35-15-1 ATS in their last 51 following a loss. Take Minnesota. | |||||||
| 10-06-19 | Bears -5 v. Raiders | 21-24 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bears* I don't think there is a downgrade from Trubisky to Daniel. Chicago's defense might be the best in the NFL. Khalil Mack should be highly motivated to play against his old team here. The Raiders aren't a good team. I'm not sold on the Raiders offense at all. The Colts team they beat last weekend was badly banged up. Beating a shorthanded Colts team is far different than winning against this solid Bears team. Oakland hasn't been able to show any level of consistency in the last couple years, and I certainly don't trust them to put up another good performance here. Oakland's defense is one of the bottom three defenses in the NFL. The Bears aren't great on offense by any means, but they should be able to do enough against this weak Raiders defense to create separation. Take Chicago here. | |||||||
| 09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos -3 | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Broncos* Gardner Minshew is a nice story and I do like him, but I think the hype about Minshew has gotten a little out of control. He came in against a poor Chiefs defense and put up numbers. He then played relatively well against a Titans team that looked flat. Minshew must now go to play at elevation against a Broncos defense that is better than they have shown in the early going this year. The Broncos defense actually did play better in Green Bay last week, and I think their pass rush will finally show up here. Denver is a desperate team, and Jacksonville hasn't been a team to follow up success with another good game in the past. The Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. Denver is more accustomed to the conditions here, and heavy winds during this game should help the Broncos here. Denver is more committed to the ground game than Jacksonville, and I think the wind could throw off Minshew quite a bit here. Jacksonville is still a team with a lot of question marks. Minshew hasn't proven himself as a good NFL quarterback yet, and the Jalen Ramsey saga isn't helpful (he won't play here). Take Denver. | |||||||
| 09-29-19 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 42.5 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 58 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots defense has allowed 3 points so far this year. New England has certainly played some weak offenses so far this year, but the Patriots have a top two or three defense in the NFL. I love their defensive schemes, and I think they will give Buffalo a lot of trouble here. Buffalo scored only 17 points on the Jets and 21 on a subpar Bengals defense. The Bills offense still has a ton of question marks for me. I think Josh Allen is a gamer and I like the fight he puts up, but this Patriots defense is likely to give him and the Bills offense significant trouble. The Bills defense is a top six or seven defense in the NFL. New England is dealing with a lot of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line is a particular area of concern right now for New England. Edelman is banged up on the outside as well. A divisional game like this with two excellent defenses- I like this one to be low scoring. Take the under. | |||||||
| 09-29-19 | Redskins +3 v. Giants | 3-24 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Redskins* The New York Giants have some massive injuries. Barkley is one of the best running backs in the country. He does everything for this offense. Daniel Jones had a good first game against Tampa Bay, but it will be difficult for him to succeed in the long run without Golden Tate on the outside and without Barkley in the backfield. The New York Giants secondary is graded as the worst in the NFL in the past decade by Pro Football Focus. They have been absolutely dreadful so far this year. Washington is going to air it out early and often. Case Keenum does have some good receivers and the Giants don't have much of a pass rush. I would expect the Redskins to be able to move the ball a lot here. The Giants are getting too much love because of the Danny Dimes talk all week. This is still a very weak Giants team. Alec Ogletree is out on the defense and he is their best defender. The defense was terrible even with him. They are even worse now. Washington has played a very tough schedule thus far. This is easily the worst team they have played this year. I'll take the points with Washington, and I think they have a good chance to win outright. Take Washington. | |||||||
| 09-29-19 | Raiders v. Colts OVER 45 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 33 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Low totals in domes have been good plays on the over in the NFL in the last decade. That is especially true in non-division games like this one. The Oakland Raiders defense is a bottom three or four defense in the NFL. I really like the Colts offensive play callers and I think Jacoby Brissett is better than most people realize. Look for the Colts to have a good game plan ready to take advantage of this Raiders defense. The Colts play a soft zone and the Raiders should be able to use their short passing game to move it down the field here. Indianapolis has a bunch of key injuries on defense. The secondary was their weakness to begin with, and Malik Hooker is a big loss for them. The sharp money likes the over here, and I have to agree. This is a low total for a game in a dome and between two teams with clear defensive problems. Take the over. | |||||||
| 09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers OVER 48.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have been ruining all kinds of chances to score with turnovers and stalled out drives deep in opponents territory. The Chargers have played two pretty good defenses so far this year, and LA still ranks 4th in the NFL in yards per play. Rivers is still a good quarterback and he is surrounded by quite a few weapons. The Houston Texans offense has a lot of potential. As long as they open it up enough here and throw the ball early and often, I see this as a matchup where they can score plenty of points. Deshaun Watson is a really good quarterback, and he has tremendous wide receivers. The Chargers secondary is badly banged up, and Houston has a big edge at wide receiver. The Texans biggest weakness now is also in the secondary. Their defensive line isn't quite as strong as it was a year ago either. Look for Rivers to do some damage on this Texans secondary. I see both passing games having a clear edge here. Take the over. | |||||||
| 09-22-19 | Broncos v. Packers UNDER 43.5 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 121 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers I view as an under team at least early in the season. This Green Bay defense is much better than they were a year ago. I like their athleticism and speed at all positions. Denver's offense is very weak. Joe Flacco simply isn't the answer, and Denver is going to struggle all year on offense. They simply aren't explosive enough. I see the Broncos as a team who tries to play fairly conservative offensively, and they don't have enough weapons either. Green Bay's offensive tempo has been very slow so far this year. The Packers new offense hasn't worked well thus far. Green Bay is 2-0 because of their defense. The Packers offense is 30th in the NFL in yards per play so far this year, behind the Chicago Bears and just ahead of the New York Jets. The weather could be helpful here. The long-term forecast calls for 15 mph winds during this game and a chance of rain. Wind certainly helps the under. Take the under here. | |||||||
| 09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 105 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Minnesota Vikings* The Minnesota Vikings are in a nice bounce back spot here. Minnesota is still an excellent defense, and Kirk Cousins has shown the ability to look good against bad defenses in the past. The Oakland Raiders defense looked good in week one against Denver, but I think the Broncos offense is going to make a lot of defenses look good this year. Jon Gruden's team is missing a lot of key players due to injury already this year. On the other side, the Vikings are pretty healthy at this point in the season. The Raiders have been able to sneak up on some teams at home, but they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games. Minnesota is 37-16-1 ATS in their last 54 home games. The Vikings are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 coming off a straight up loss. I see this as a one-sided contest. Take Minnesota. | |||||||
| 09-15-19 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 53.5 | 28-10 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs have consistently been better on offense on the road than at home. That isn't common at all, but under Andy Reid they are averaging almost 3 points per game more on the road than at home. In fact, the over is 16-5 in the Chiefs last 21 road games. The defense has been even worse on the road, and the offense has stepped up away from home. Oakland's defense looked pretty good against Denver this past Monday night, but I don't have to tell you there is a huge difference in looking good against the Denver Broncos offense led by Joe Flacco and this KC offense led by Patrick Mahomes. Even without Hill, there are more than enough weapons here to take advantage of a weak Oakland secondary that is now without a starting safety as well. Oakland's offense didn't have to do much in the second half against Denver, but they'll need to keep pushing to score here. Derek Carr has better players around him this year, and he knows the system better now as well. The Chiefs defense is a clear weakness, and I expect Oakland to connect on some big plays here. Take the over. | |||||||
| 09-15-19 | Vikings v. Packers UNDER 45 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 140 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers defense looked excellent in week one. I know the Bears aren't a great offense by any means, but I liked what I saw from the Packers in terms of speed and athleticism on defense. Minnesota has a top five defense in the NFL. The Vikings won't make it easy on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in their new offense. Green Bay looked very shaky offensively in week one. This is a divisional rivalry, and these games have stayed under the total far more often than they have gone over. The long range weather shows 15 mph winds for this game which is just an added bonus. The under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. | |||||||
| 09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on the Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a buy low spot here. They were absolutely thumped by the Patriots this past weekend. The Patriots are the best team in the NFL though, and Pittsburgh should bounce back from that loss. The Seattle Seahawks were extremely fortunate to beat the lowly Cincinnati Bengals at home last weekend. They were outgained by nearly 200 yards in that one. If it weren't for the Bengals turnover problems, the Seahawks would have lost to a team most have power rated as one of the four or five worst in the NFL. Seattle's secondary is a weakness now. It seems strange to even think that after they had the dominant secondary for so many years recently, but those guys are gone and many teams will pick on this secondary. Russell Wilson is very good, but the offensive line for the Seahawks isn't good in pass protection. The Steelers run defense should be good with Bush as a strong addition at linebacker this year. I think they'll do a good job stopping Seattle's limited offense. Seattle isn't a very good team. I think the Steelers are a solid team, and this is a great chance to buy them low in a great bounce back spot at home. Take Pittsburgh. | |||||||
| 09-09-19 | Texans +7 v. Saints | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Texans* The Houston Texans have a bunch of talented skill position players. Houston will need to throw the ball a lot this year, and they should be able to be very successful airing it out with the group of wide receivers they have. Deshaun Watson played through an injury and had a nice season last year. With him healthier this year and the weapons on the outside even better, expect some big numbers in the passing game. While the offensive line is still a weakness, it is clearly better than last year. New Orleans is 1-9 straight up in the first two weeks of the season in the last five years. The Saints haven't gotten off to good starts, and I think they will have a harder time with the Texans than the betting market believes. The Saints still don't have a lot of depth at corner, and the Texans will run 3 or 4 very good receivers out against them. Drew Brees will get quite a bit of pressure from the excellent edge rushers from Houston. That should keep him uncomfortable enough for this one to be very close. Take Houston. | |||||||
| 09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 49 | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Patriots were a much different team late last season than what they were the season before. They looked to run the ball far more. The Patriots also were led by their strong defense. I don't think most people realize how good this defense is now. This is a top five defense in the NFL. With Tom Brady aging, I think a more conservative game plan will likely continue. The Steelers defense should be considerably better with Bush at linebacker. He gives the team that quick linebacker in the middle of the field that they have been missing the last couple seasons. I think both teams will do a good job keeping everything in front of them here. A tight game where both teams have to settle for field goals several times should keep this one under. Take the under. | |||||||
| 09-08-19 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | 17-35 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* These divisional rivals square off in week one of the NFL regular season. The New York Giants are without a couple key wide receivers, which should make their game plan even more conservative for this game. Look for a lot of running the football and short passes. That should keep the clock moving quite a bit. Dallas will look to run it a lot and the Cowboys still aren't likely to take too many deep shots in this offense. Kellen Moore's system should take some time to get established, especially since Zeke hasn't been around until a few days ago. New York's Saquon Barkley is likely to bust quite a few big plays this year, but Dallas' linebackers make it harder to break big gainers on this team than the average NFL defense. Dallas is absolutely loaded at linebacker, and their speed is impressive. Five of the last six games between these two teams have finished at 40 points or less. Look for another hard fought contest here. Take the under. | |||||||
| 09-08-19 | Lions -2.5 v. Cardinals | 27-27 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Lions* The Detroit Lions have a defensive minded coach, and I would expect them to have a solid game plan ready for this game. Arizona is the wild card here. What are the Cardinals going to be under Kingsbury and with Kyler Murray at quarterback? It doesn't help that Marcus Gilbert is out this week. Gilbert is key from his tackle position. Arizona doesn't have much depth at wide receiver, and there are some injury concerns there as well. I would be surprised if the air raid offense just works like a charm from the first game of the regular season. This is still a rookie quarterback and a first time NFL head coach. The Cardinals defense is severely shorthanded in the secondary right now. They are without their top two cornerbacks. Patrick Petersen is a huge loss, but so is Robert Alford. Detroit wants to run the ball, and I think they should be able to find some room to run against this Cardinals front seven. That should open things up for Stafford and the passing game for Detroit. Detroit is healthier and this is a team that has had more continuity. Arizona has too many question marks right now. Take Detroit. | |||||||
| 09-08-19 | Giants +7.5 v. Cowboys | 17-35 | Loss | -108 | 39 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Giants* The New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys have played some very tight games against each other in recent seasons. How close have these contests been? Seven of the last nine games between these two teams have been decided by a touchdown or less. I think this will be another close one. Divisional underdogs have been money in the bank early in the season in the past few years in the NFL. In general, underdogs have been strong in the first couple weeks of the year. Divisional underdogs is an even stronger angle. These two teams clearly know each other very well. The Cowboys will have Ezekiel Elliot on the field here, but this is a new offense under Kellen Moore. The Cowboys barely tried at all in the preseason and Elliot hasn't been with the team. Dallas has started slow in recent seasons and I think more of the same could come here. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 in week one of the season. Jason Garrett isn't a good head coach, and that certainly plays a role in starting slow. The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games. I think they stay in this one. Take the New York Giants. | |||||||
| 09-08-19 | Colts +6.5 v. Chargers | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Colts* The LA Chargers have virtually no home field advantage. They definitely don't deserve the standard 2.5 or 3 points for HFA here. In fact, they might be better on the road. The Chargers have a bunch of injuries on the offensive line, and the Colts should be in the backfield a bunch here. Andrew Luck retired and that has been all the talk the last couple weeks. What many people forget is the Colts built a pretty good team for this year. Jacoby Brissett isn't great, but he isn't bad either. He has some nice pieces around him. The Colts are clearly the healthier team. Indianapolis has been told they don't have any chance for the last couple weeks. This is a game where they should rally and give max effort. This is a dangerous spot for the Chargers, who have been known to have some flat spots at home against lesser opponents. Take the Colts. | |||||||
| 09-08-19 | Titans v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | 43-13 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans have injury/suspension trouble on the offensive line. You don't want to be facing this Cleveland Browns pass rush with question marks on the offensive line. Marcus Mariota hasn't shown himself to be very good when under pressure in the NFL. The Titans will likely look to run the ball quite a bit here and bleed the clock. They don't want to get into a shootout here, and they know they have pass protection issues. Cleveland's offensive line isn't very good in pass protection either. Cameron Wake is a nice addition for the Titans, and I see this Titans defense as underrated. They don't have many stars, but they don't have any glaring weaknesses either. Baker Mayfield is very good, but he can have some interception issues and I wouldn't be surprised if a couple drives are slowed by a pick or two here. The Browns running game isn't great either. With an extra emphasis on holding calls this year, I see this as a game where there could be a lot of offensive holding penalties with the Oline's struggling to keep the pass rush off their quarterback. Take the under. | |||||||
| 02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 56.5 | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
*2 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams will play to see who wins the Super Bowl on Sunday night. New England has been here all kinds of times, and this is the first trip for this Rams team. The Rams have run the ball on more than 50% of their offensive plays in their last three games. Jared Goff has been shaky late in the season, and I expect the Rams to run the ball quite a bit in this game especially early on in the game. The Patriots have transformed themselves into a team that runs the ball well behind a strong offensive line. There's no doubt New England has less elite weapons in the passing game now than they have had in the past, so it makes sense for them to make this change. They have multiple good running back options. I think they'll run the ball a lot in this one as well. I think both teams will likely run the ball more and try to keep their defense off the field, which should result in some long drives that eat up a lot of clock. The Rams defense has allowed less than 19 points per game in contests Aqib Talib has played. He has been a difference maker for this defense. The defensive line has played much better in their last few games as well. This Rams defense is very well coached by Wade Phillips. New England's defense confused the Chiefs for much of the game in the AFC title game. I think they'll have some good schemes ready here as well. Take the under. | |||||||
| 01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 55.5 | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 65 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots hosted the Kansas City Chiefs in week 6 of the regular season. The Patriots won that game 43-40. The scoring was rapid fire back and forth late in that game. Both teams were getting a bunch of big gainers. Kansas City has the best offense in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes has proven people wrong all year, and he has a good coaching staff putting him in great positions. It doesn't hurt to have guys like Hill, Kelce, and Watkins to throw the ball to either. The Chiefs offensive line is one of the two or three best in the NFL as well. Kansas City has been able to score on everyone this year. I don't think that changes here. The Patriots defense can't match the team speed of the Chiefs. New England's offense has found a really solid running game late this year. Kansas City ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Chiefs have gotten gashed on several occasions. While the Patriots offense isn't elite, they do still have one of the best of all time at quarterback. They also have a great offensive coaching staff. This is a weak Kansas City defense they are up against. Both of these teams rank in the top eight in pace of play, so there should be plenty of snaps here. The over is 8-1-1 in the Patriots last 10 playoff games. New England has scored 28 points or more in all but one of those games. The weather doesn't look nearly as bad as it did earlier this year. Current forecasts call for temperatures in the mid 20's here, which is cold, but not brutal by any means. The winds are expected to be at only 5 or 6 mph. Cold weather games have gone over in the NFL in the past. Games with a temperature of less than 30 degrees have gone 95-61 (60.9%) to the over. In the playoffs, the over is 20-11 in this weather. When the game is a non-divisional contest, the over is a whopping 67-30 (69.1%). Look for both teams to score quite a few here. Take the over. | |||||||
| 01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 51 | 14-20 | Loss | -109 | 62 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints passing attack is capable of huge things. They weren't at their best down the stretch, but their numbers are much better in the Superdome than on the road and they are up against a very weakened Eagles secondary here. Drew Brees is still a very reliable quarterback, and he still has a great offensive line in front of him. The Saints have multiple good weapons on the outside, and they also have a great running back in Kamara. The Eagles secondary has been a problem late in the year with the significant amount of injuries. Philadelphia's secondary was exposed by Houston late in the year. The Bears weren't able to expose them, but the Saints are on the fast track and have many more weapons. The Eagles offense has been playing better with Foles at quarterback, and the Saints defense gives up a lot of big plays. Philadelphia is a better offense with Sproles healthy. He isn't young, but he still has big play potential. Both passing attacks have a significant advantage here, and this isn't that high of a total considering the situations. The over is 6-0 in the Saints last 6 home playoff contests. Take the over. | |||||||
| 01-06-19 | Chargers +3 v. Ravens | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Chargers* The Baltimore Ravens beat the Chargers a couple weeks ago on the road. The Chargers have been better on the road than at home though, and this Chargers team has much more balance than the Ravens. Baltimore has gotten good play from Lamar Jackson, but he doesn't give the team much of a downfield passing threat at all. The Chargers do have a good defense, and I expect some adjustments from them in this one. The Ravens defense is very good, but the Chargers offense ranked third in the NFL in yards per play, and now they are healthier than they have been. They'll be hard to keep down for an entire game. Jackson has had several good games, but he did get to beat quite a few bad teams. The Chargers are a dangerous team and catching a full field goal here is a nice value. Take the Chargers. | |||||||
| 12-30-18 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 31-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions in the final game of the regular season for each team. There are strong under trends in the long term in the final week of the season with bad teams. It is much stronger if the game isn't being played in a dome. From game number 13-16: when both teams have won 50% or less of their games and the game is not being played in a dome- the under is 131-84-6 (60.9%). The number goes to 92-55 to the under when the total is at least 39.5. The wind could be a bit of a factor here too. Steady winds of 13-14 mph with gusts to 22 mph are forecast for Green Bay on Sunday afternoon. Detroit's offense has scored 17 points or less in four straight games. Stafford is playing banged up and they are without their star running back Kerryon Johnson. Both pass rushes are much better than the offensive line, and that should make both quarterbacks uncomfortable. Take the under. | |||||||
| 12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 39.5 | 17-42 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo's offense has been woeful at best this year. Buffalo has scored 13 points or less nine times this year. Buffalo has a very conservative offense, and I wouldn't expect that to change much here. Miami's offense has been really bad of late. Ryan Tannehill is banged up and the offensive line in front of him is shorthanded as well. They are without multiple top options on offense. The Dolphins scored just 7 points last week against Jacksonville. This Buffalo defense has been tremendous all year. The Dolphins didn't even get to 200 yards in their first game against Buffalo. Buffalo ranks third in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Both of these teams play slowly and the weather here calls for 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. That should keep things more conservative on the play calling front. From game number 13-16: when both teams have won 50% or less of their games and the game is not being played in a dome- the under is 131-84-6 (60.9%). The number goes to 92-55 to the under when the total is at least 39.5. This is a late season game that should be filled with some sloppy offense and a low scoring contest. Take the under. | |||||||
| 12-23-18 | Steelers v. Saints OVER 52.5 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints haven't scored that many points in recent games, but these are still very good offenses. Pittsburgh throws the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They are throwing the ball on 2/3 of their offensive plays. The Steelers should be able to take advantage of the Saints secondary. Marshon Lattimore is very good, but the Saints don't have depth in the secondary. They have played some teams recent who haven't been able to take advantage of that weakness, but the Steelers should be able to. What about Drew Brees and the Saints offense? They have too many weapons to be bad for too long. The Saints are back in the dome and they have put up big numbers here many times in the past. This total has been pushed down because of recent results, but I see this as a recency bias situation. Two teams who are very capable of scoring in bunches and scoring quickly on the fast track. Take the over. | |||||||
| 12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys -6.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Dallas* I was against the Dallas Cowboys last week when they lost 23-0 to the Colts. I'll be on them this weekend at home against Tampa Bay. The Cowboys were coming off a big win over the Eagles last week, and it was a major flat spot. That isn't the case now. There are a lot of quotes coming out of the locker room from Dallas that they were extremely embarrassed by their loss last week. They need to win one of their last two games, and this is their best chance to do it against a weak team and on their home turf. The Tampa Bay defense has been surprisingly bad against the run this year, and that doesn't bode well for them against Ezekiel Elliot and this rushing attack. Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom eight in the NFL in rushing defense. They haven't been able to get into the backfield very often. Dallas can mix in the play action passes more now to Amari Cooper as well, and the Tampa Bay secondary has been beaten deep often this year. The Cowboys will probably have Sean Lee on the field here. The defense is really good without him, and it is excellent with him on the field. Tampa Bay doesn't have anything to play, and the Cowboys have a lot they need to accomplish here. The Cowboys should be ready to go for this one. Take Dallas. | |||||||
| 12-23-18 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 42.5 | 27-9 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings are looking to run the ball a lot more and have a more conservative offense under their new offensive coordinator. Minnesota is likely to play slower, and with a lot more runs it means a running clock which is clearly good for the under. Detroit has been running the ball more lately as well. Why? Matt Stafford is banged up badly and is playing behind a very weak offensive line. Minnesota sacked him 10 times when these two teams met a few weeks ago! The Vikings will be in the backfield a lot again in this one. Detroit has scored 17 points or less in each of their last four games. The Lions are without Kerryon Johnson and that hurts their efficiency in the running game significantly. Both teams running it a lot and playing slower than the average NFL tempo. I expect a lower scoring game. Take the under. | |||||||
| 12-16-18 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 | 23-26 | Loss | -109 | 39 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks take on the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have been a good under team at Levi's Stadium since it opened. The under is 23-14 in their home games since this stadium opened. Divisional home games are 10-4 to the under. Seattle runs the ball as much as anyone in the NFL. The Seahawks are looking to control the ball and use up a lot of time on offense. It has been working very well. San Francisco's defense is a very solid 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. The 49ers offense is certainly limited with so many injuries. Nick Mullens hasn't done a bad job, but he isn't dynamic by any means. The weather here plays a big factor in my reason for taking this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts to 26 mph during the game. It also calls for rain which could be heavy at times. Rain and wind combined is a big positive for the under. Look for an even more conservative game plan from both teams here, and that helps the defenses know what is coming. Take the under. | |||||||
| 12-16-18 | Cowboys v. Colts -2.5 | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 120 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Colts* The Indianapolis Colts have every reason to want to win this game. Indianapolis is hovering on the edge of the playoff race, and they have every chance to make the playoffs if they keep winning. Dallas has essentially locked up the NFC East with their win over the Eagles in overtime last week and with the rest of the division simply falling apart as they have. Dallas is coming off an emotional win, and the Cowboys don't have nearly as much incentive to win this game as do the Colts. The Cowboys need to win just one more game, and they have three chances. The strength of the Colts defense is their run defense. Indianapolis ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Dallas is a run first team with Ezekiel Elliot. The Colts once again have an elite quarterback under center with Andrew Luck playing very well right now. The team is starting to get healthier, and importantly the pass protection of the Colts is very good now. Luck should have plenty of time to throw, and the Cowboys secondary is only mediocre. Take Indianapolis. | |||||||
| 12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings -7 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 118 h 47 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Minnesota Vikings ATS* The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a disappointing loss on Monday night to the Seattle Seahawks. The Miami Dolphins are coming off an improbable last second win over the New England Patriots. Now, Minnesota is in a spot where they absolutely have to win, and they are clearly the better team. Minnesota has an excellent defense. The Vikings rank fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Miami offensive line is a major weakness, and Ryan Tannehill still isn't 100 percent healthy. Expect the Vikings to get a lot of pressure on Tannehill here. Minnesota's wide receivers are some of the best in the NFL. The Dolphins secondary is very weak. They rank as one of the three worst pass defenses in the NFL. Minnesota should be able to exploit that weakness. The Vikings have played the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL this year according to Sagarin. The Dolphins have played the 30th toughest schedule in the NFL. Miami isn't nearly as good as their record, and the Vikings are better than their record. The number is lower than it should be here because of the two teams recent play. Minnesota has a strong home field advantage, and I expect a good performance in a must win game. Take Minnesota. | |||||||
| 12-16-18 | Bucs v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 60 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens have totally changed their offensive game plan. Lamar Jackson is under center and the Ravens are looking to run the ball as much as possible. Most NFL teams are throwing the ball more than 60% of the time, but the Ravens are running it about 65% of the time in their last three games. Gus Edwards is getting a bunch of carries, and that should be the case again here. Tampa Bay's defense has been much better in recent weeks. The Bucs are far from a great defense, but they aren't as bad as they looked earlier this year. Tampa Bay is a little healthier on the defensive end now than they were earlier this year. Tampa Bay is 20th in yards per play allowed in their last three games compared to 31st for the season. The Bucs are also better at stopping the run than the pass. Baltimore's defense is easily number one in the league so far this year. The Ravens excel at stopping the pass, and that's what Tampa Bay wants to do here. I don't see Winston and this Bucs offense having much success through the air. Tampa Bay has a really weak ground game as well. The weather here could be very helpful. Winds of 10-12 mph with rain showers are expected in the game. That should make the offenses more conservative and predictable. Take the under. | |||||||
| 12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | 13-14 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Buffalo* The Buffalo Bills have been strong defensively all year. Buffalo is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Buffalo's secondary is elite, and Detroit will have to try to throw it around. I don't think Detroit will have much success running without Kerryon Johnson healthy and with a banged up offensive line. Detroit is such a banged up team right now. The offensive line is very banged up. Matt Stafford is still listed on the injury report with his back injury, and Stafford threw for less than 100 yards last week against Arizona. Ezekiel Ansah was easily the best pass rusher on this team, and not having him hurts this defense badly. The Bills have an edge running the football here. Josh Allen has played better as the season has gone along. Buffalo has outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents. The Lions have been outgained by 6 of their last 7 opponents. The Bills are playing better late in the year, and the Lions are limping to the finish. Buffalo should be up for this game at home against a subpar defense. The Bills have played an extremely tough set of defenses this year. Finally, they get a weaker defense. The Bills are the much healthier team too. Take Buffalo. | |||||||
| 12-15-18 | Browns v. Broncos UNDER 46 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos offense wasn't great to start with, but now they are much weaker without Sanders as their primary wide receiver. Case Keenum isn't a terrible quarterback, but he needs weapons around him. He's short on weapons now. Denver can run the football, and I would expect them to run it even more than normal here. That takes more time off the clock. Cleveland's offense has played very well of late, but they have been up against some very weak defenses. Denver's elite pass rush could pose some problems for the Browns passing game here. Cleveland still is only 18th in yards per play on offense. The Browns have also faced one of the easiest schedules of defensive units so far this year. Mayfield has been good and the Browns offense is much improved, but this is still a tough task for them at Denver at altitude. These two defenses have both faced a very tough schedule of offensive units this year. I believe these two defenses are better than their numbers look right now. Take the under. | |||||||
Top Cappers L7 Days
| Service | Profit |
|---|---|
| Kevin Young | $1,365 |
| Jack Jones | $1,192 |
| Black Widow | $1,113 |
| John Martin | $821 |
| Jimmy Boyd | $808 |
| Hunter Price | $720 |
| Rocky's Lock Club | $698 |
| Brody Vaughn | $689 |
| Calvin King | $527 |
| Mike Williams | $442 |
