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The Chiefs had trouble covering point spreads when they were good. Now they are an untrustworthy 6-6 with half of those victories occurring against the Giants, Raiders and Commanders.

Houston is peaking with four straight victories. Three of those wins were against the Colts on the road, Bills and Jaguars. C.J. Stroud has knocked the rust off and is fortified with the deepest set of wide receivers he's had.

Just because the Chiefs need to win this game doesn't mean they will. Even if they do, it's asking a lot for them to cover more than a field goal given their offensive line injuries and going against Houston's top-ranked defense. The Texans are first in fewest points allowed, fewest yards and are tied for seventh in most sacks.

Patrick Mahomes is capable of pulling off magic. He has a lot working against him, though, besides Houston's elite defense. The Chiefs have a ground attack that scares no one and three starting offensive linemen are out. 

Before crowning the Seahawks Super Bowl champions after a shutout of a Max Brosmer-led Minnesota team last week, consider this about Atlanta.

The Falcons are an unlucky 4-8. They have lost by an average of 3.2 points in five of their defeats. Two of their losses - to the Panthers and Colts - came in overtime. Atlanta's latest defeat was last Sunday on the road by three points when the Jets' Nick Folk made a 56-yard field goal as time expired.

If even two of those five defeats were turned around, the Falcons would be a far more respectable 6-6.

Seattle enters this match-up fat and happy and perhaps overconfident. It is not an ideal spot for Seattle. The Seahawks are making the long journey across three time zones and this is an early start. They also are not a dome team.

The Falcons can afford to play loose now. All the pressure is on the Seahawks.

Kirk Cousins is well past his prime. But he still is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league and has the luxury of having superstar Bijan Robinson to do the heavy lifting.

North Texas is a false favorite. Tulane is the more balanced team, is home, has more title game experience and a much better defense than the Mean Green.

Tulane gives up fewer than 25 points a game and ranks 34th in run defense. North Texas' defense improved as the season progressed, but still ranks 124th in stopping the run. Green Wave dual threat QB Jake Retzlaff can take advantage of that. He threw 14 touchdown passes for Tulane this  season and set a school record for quarterback rushing touchdowns with 14.

Tulane is making its third straight American Conference Championship appearance. North Texas hasn't won a conference title since 2004, nor won a bowl game since 2013.

The Green Wave also played the tougher schedule. They went against three Power Four opponents in Northwestern, Duke, and Mississippi. North Texas played a much weaker non-conference schedule.

The Mean Green heavily rely on QB Drew Mastemaker, a redshirt freshman, who passed for 3,835 yards and 29 TDs. The weather conditions, though, could hurt North Texas' passing attack with rain expected during the evening.

The game is being played at Tulane's outdoor, on-campus Yulman Stadium. The rain is going to cause the field to be soggy and slow down the passing attacks. That is going to hurt North Texas more.

The Mavericks are going for their first three-game win streak of the season.

I don't see them getting it.

The Heat are 7-1 in their last eight games. Miami is 2-0 in its past two road games winning by 10 points against the 76ers and by 36 vs. the Bulls.

Dallas still could be on Cloud Nine after stunning the Nuggets in Denver with a SU victory as an 11-point  underdog two days ago. 

The Mavericks are banged-up in the front court. Both P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford are questionable with ankle injuries. 

New England is 10-2 and has won nine in a row, which is the longest active win streak in the NFL. The Giants are 2-10 and already eliminated from playoff contention.

Yet the gap between these teams is not as gargantuan as their records indicate.

Multiple key New England injuries, the return of Jaxson Dart from a concussion and the Patriots' unfamiliar position of having all the pressure on them while hosting their first Monday Night Football matchup in five years  make this matchup far more even than perceived.

The Patriots' injuries are not that well-known outside of New England because they are not to skill position players. But these injuries are very important. The Patriots will be breaking in two new offensive line starters on the left side with tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson out. Campbell probably is New England's best offensive lineman. They were both injured in New England's, 26-20, road victory against the Bengals last week.

The Pats didn't have good offensive line depth before the injuries. New England also has had trouble running the ball ranking 19th in rushing. The Patriots have heavily relied upon the arm and legs of Drake Maye. The Giants' defensive strength is their pass rush.

New England's defensive line also has been impacted by injuries. Standout tackle Milton Williams is out. Another key run-stuffer, Khyiris Tonga, is questionable as is linebacker Harold Landry, whose play has regressed because he's been playing hurt.

Another below-the-surface injury for the Patriots is special-teams ace Brenden Schooler, who is out  with an ankle injury.

Dart has provided the Giants with a spark. He is back from a concussion. Dart has accounted for 17 touchdowns in his seven starts with the Giants, who average slightly more than 24 points a game when he is under center.

The Giants played each of the three top teams in the NFC North tough during the last three weeks. They held fourth-quarter leads in each game before losing in overtime at Detroit, by seven points to the Packers and by four points to the Bears on the road.

The jury is out on interim coach Mike Kafka and his new elevated defensive coordinator, Charlie Bullen. But the early returns appear promising with the Giants seeming to play with more passion and better morale than they did under Brian Daboll.

I get that the Broncos are 9-2 while Washington is 3-8 and has lost six in a row. I find the Bears and the Broncos, though, to be the two luckiest teams in the NFL so far.

Denver has won just twice by more than one score and one came back in September against the Bengals who were starting the miserable Jake Browning then. The Broncos have five wins by a combined 16 points. That's an average victory margin of 3.2 points and it shows Denver often plays to the level of its competition.

This is a rare nationally televised game for Washington. Jobs are on the line for the Commanders.

Denver has the far superior defense. However, Marcus Mariota could be a starter for a few NFL teams and he gets back his top wide receiver, Terry McLaurin.

The Broncos' ground attack took a huge hit losing JK Dobbins. I am not a huge Bo Nix fan finding him to be barely more than a glorified game manager.

Note, too, that the Broncos are 1-4 ATS when laying more than six points this season. 

Myles Garrett of the Browns is the most disruptive pass rusher in football. My vote for No. 2 would go to the Raiders' Maxx Crosby. He should cause a lot of havoc for a reshuffled Chargers offensive line that is expected to go with its eighth different starting rotation against the Raiders. Instead of stars the Chargers are down to journeymen starting offensive linemen.

Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback, but he had little chance in the Chargers' last game because of a bad offensive line. That was a horrendous 29-point road loss to the Jaguars. It was the Chargers' worst performance of the season,

Certainly I expect the Chargers to play much better at home coming out of their bye week. But they have very little home advantage, a mediocre roster and below average pass rush. The Raiders are a desperate foe that just fired their offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly.

Las Vegas has severe offensive line woes, too. Embattled quarterback Geno Smith has looked terrible because of that. But now the Raiders have a new offensive coordinator in veteran Greg Olson, a healthy superstar tight end in Brock Bowers and the best running back on the field, Ashton Jeanty.

Factor in this being a division game and the Chargers are just too high of a favorite here.

Taking advantage of an easy early schedule, Maryland jumped out to a 4-0 record. Since then, however, the Terrapins have gone 0-7. Their defense has fallen apart permitting an average of 39.7 points in the last four games. Maryland did not cover any of these games. 

Michigan State has lost eight consecutive games. There is a difference, though. The Spartans cover point spreads. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. 

During their last three games, Michigan State only lost by three points on the road to Iowa as a 17-point underdog and was beaten in overtime at Minnesota, 23-20. A couple of controversial pass interference calls cost Michigan State those games. 

As it stands now, Michigan State's defense is much better than Maryland's. 

Aside from the series history, there's no logical reason to believe Virginia Tech can stay within single digits of Virginia.

The Cavaliers are 9-2. They were idle last week after playing their best game of the season defeating Duke, 34-17, on the road in a victory that was more lopsided than the final score. A victory here gets Virginia into the ACC title game.

Virginia Tech is 3-8 and has lost five of its last six games. The Hokies are in transition with James Franklin, the former Penn State coach, set to take over.
 
The Hokies have won 19 of the last 20 games against Virginia. The Cavaliers’ lone win came in 2019. That's a strong history against Virginia, but somewhat meaningless. Many key Virginia players such as quarterback Chandler Morris and running back J’Mari Taylor have never played in the rivalry.

Virginia is by far superior to Virginia Tech statistically. The Cavaliers are in the top-20 defensively and in the top-40 offensively. The Hokies rank 100th in scoring and 114th in scoring defense. 

Northern Illinois is not going to have the greatest motivation failing to to reach bowl status for the first time since 2022 with a 3-8 record. The Huskies also are 1-4 ATS at home this season.

Kent State is 4-7 after going 0-12 last season. The Golden Flashes have only lost one of their seven MAC games by more than 12 points.

The Golden Flashes should be competitive again in this game. The bar is set very low for their defense. Northern Illinois averages 15.8 points per game, which is 132nd in the nation. The Huskies are also 132nd in yards per game. They still haven't figured out their quarterback situation, which is reflected in ranking 134th in passing yards.

The Golden Flashes are the more explosive team. Their quarterback, Dru DeShields, has thrown four 75 plus yard touchdown strikes and their leading receiver, Cade Wolford, averages 25.8 yards per reception and has seven touchdowns. 

There are some bad defenses in the NFL. Then there are the Cincinnati Bengals. They are in a league of their own when it comes to horrendous tackling and giving up points and yards. The Bengals are second-to-last in run defense and facing Derrick Henry.

And run defense is the Bengals' best defensive category! Cincinnati gives up the most points, yards, yards per play, passing yards and passing touchdowns in the league. It is why they are 1-8 in their last nine games.

This is a get-right spot for Lamar Jackson if ever there was one.

It is a pipe dream to think Joe Burrow, who has a history of starting slow, is magically going to keep the Bengals within a touchdown of Baltimore after being out for two and a half months with a toe injury. Not having No. 2 wideout Tee Higgins certainly doesn't help the Bengals' cause.

The Ravens have all the momentum winning five in a row to go from 1-5 to 6-5. Baltimore's defense has stepped up holding each of its last six opponents below 20 points. The Ravens' average winning margin during their five-game winning streak is 12.8 points a game.

It takes an elite coach and quarterback to go into Detroit and beat the Lions. The Packers don't have that.

Partially held back by Matt Lafleur's conservative reliance on a ground game spearheaded by mediocre Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love is averaging just 163 passing yards on a measly 6.0 yards per attempt during his last three games. That's not going to win a high-scoring matchup against the Lions indoors.

Detroit also is getting healthier now on defense with the expected return of their top two cornerbacks, Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed.

Green Bay, on the other hand, is dealing with several key injuries on defense. No. 1 CB Keisean Nixon (neck), DT Karl Brooks (ankle), and linebacker ILB Quay Walker (neck) are doubtful along with situational pass rusher Lukas Van Ness.

The point spread is cheap to back  the Lions in a revenge spot from opening week when the Packers embarrassed them by two touchdowns. 

Kudos to the Kings, who in the last four days have pulled off stunning straight-up victories as double-digit underdogs against the Nuggets on the road and Timberwolves at home in overtime.

Previous to that, however, Sacramento had lost eight consecutive games going 1-7 ATS. I don't see the Kings pulling a third straight upset victory hosting the Suns. Even with those upset wins, the Kings are just 5-13.

Sacramento is not going to have Domantas Sabonis, who is sidelined with a knee injury. Sabonis is Sacramento's best player. He leads the team in rebounding and is third in scoring.

The Kings also could be minus guard Dennis Schroder, who during the past six games is averaging 14.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists. Schroder is dealing with a hip injury.

Phoenix is in an angry mood after a disappointing, 114-92, home loss to the Rockets two days ago. The Suns had  won eight of nine before that defeat. Devin Booker draws all the attention for Phoenix with his 26.4 point scoring average, but quietly newcomer Dillon Brooks has been huge for the Suns. Brooks is averaging 22.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.9 steals.

Booker and Brooks should have big games against a Sacramento defense that ranks 27th in scoring defense and 27th in defensive field goal percentage.

It would not be surprising if Miami rested some of its rotation players. The Heat raced to a, 127-117, victory against the 76ers on Sunday. The Heat had four players log more than 30 minutes against the 76ers.

Not only are the Heat playing without rest, but this marks their fifth game in eight days. The Heat need all of their energy because they are playing at a much faster pace than in previous seasons.

The Mavericks are a disappointing 5-13. But they've only lost by more than nine points once in their last eight games. Dallas has had several close losses during the span, losing to the Knicks by two points, Clippers in overtime and Bucks by two points.

Cooper Flagg has started to play better for the Mavericks and Dallas could get back its best player, Anthony Davis.

We are getting a bargain with the Eagles based on the optics of last week with the Eagles struggling to get past the Lions on Sunday night, while the Cowboys looking great on Monday night rolling the Raiders.

Philadelphia rarely has looked good this season. But that doesn't keep the Eagles from winning. They are 8-2. Just imagine how good the Eagles would be if they were to play a decent game, which I anticipate here.

The Cowboys improved their defense at the trade deadline. It is still below par, though. There remains a huge class difference between these two teams. Dallas' four victories have been achieved against the Giants, Jets Commanders and Raiders. The combined record of those teams is 9-33.

The Eagles have defeated the Cowboys seven consecutive times, all by more than a field goal.

If the Jets are going to have any chance against the Ravens, they are going to need to come up with takeaways. That hasn't happened for them all year. The Jets have just one takeaway all season, the fewest through 10 games in the Super Bowl era. New York still doesn't have an interception either.

The Ravens have won four straight games, including the past three with Lamar Jackson back at quarterback after he missed time earlier this season with a hamstring injury. Jackson is in line for his best game of the season facing a Jets defense that traded their two best defenders, cornerback Sauce Gardner and lineman Quinnen Williams.

The Jets made a quarterback switch away from Justin Fields. At least Fields gave the Jets a running dimension. The Jets don't have that anymore with 36-year-old Tyrod Taylor behind center. Taylor doesn't have any quality wide receiving targets with Garrett Wilson out and he's not much more accurate than Fields.

I don't see the Jets being able to stay within two touchdowns. 

There has become a class difference between these two teams. BYU's only loss this season came to Texas Tech. No shame in that as the Red Raiders are ranked sixth in the country and have met, if not succeeded, lofty preseason expectations.

Cincinnati has been exposed in its last two games losing, 30-24, at home to Arizona and getting crushed at Utah, 45-14, by the Utes.

BYU gives up the 14th-fewest points at 17.8 and ranks 24th in total defense. Cincinnati ranks 123rd in yards allowed per game and has only two takeaways.

Cincinnati can't match BYU's defense, nor the Cougars balanced offensive attack. 

Missouri State's defense has vastly improved. Yet the season numbers don't show that, skewed by a 73-13 road loss to USC. Since then, the Bears haven't given up more than 28 points in a game.

The Bears are permitting only 20.4 a game during their last nine games. I don't believe the oddsmaker has taken into full account how solid Missouri State's defense is.

It is not just defense with Missouri State. Bears quarterback Jacob Clark also is coming on strong. Clark has an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. He has thrown for at least 283 yards in three of the last four games.

Kennesaw State had its bubble burst last week losing to Jacksonville State, 35-26, as a 3 1/2-point road favorite. The Owls are 1-3-1 ATS when laying more than a field goal this season.

Lafayette and Stonehill are a combined 2-9. They each have won one game. But I'm getting involved in the game because I don't see Lafayette justified as a road favorite.

Stonehill has won four consecutive games at home going back to last season. The Skyhawks' lone  home game this season was a 100-48 romp against non-board team Thomas College.

Lafayette struggles on the road and on the glass. The Leopards are 328th in offensive rebounding and rank 282nd in defensive rebounding. Stonehill is consistent on both ends of the glass ranking 162nd in offensive rebounding and 163rd in defensive rebounding.

The Leopards also have trouble scoring, ranking 324th in points per game and 356th in points per possession.

The Mavericks' terrible decision to trade Luka Doncic last season is still reverberating. Dallas GM Nico Harrison recently got fired because of that and the 4-11 Mavericks are off to their worst 15-game start since the 2017-18 season.

Dallas is 2-8 in its last 10 games. Anthony Davis is injured, of course, and won't play. An illness has hit the team where Cooper Flagg and Caleb Martin may not play leaving the Mavericks even more shorthanded.

The Knicks are 6-2 during their last eight games, but off a two-point road loss to the Heat two days ago. So New York won't lack motivation or focus.

Not only is there a class difference here, but the Mavericks are potentially very short-handed. 

Points are going to matter in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring game. So I'm happy to take them with the home underdog in a battle between two good defenses and two weak offenses played in 30-some degree weather with a chance of rain.

Western Michigan averages 21.8 PPG. The Broncos have surpassed 24 points only twice.

Northern Illinois can run the ball effectively and it ranks in the top-50 defensively in scoring defense and total yards. The Huskies held San Diego State to six points at home earlier this season. That's nearly 20 points below the Aztecs' season average.

The Huskies just bashed the FBS’s worst team in UMass, 45-3, on the road last week. A significant takeaway from that game was NIU giving quarterback Jalen Macon his first FBS start. Macon played well accounting for four touchdowns while displaying excellent mobility. 

No need to overthink this one. Dallas is the superior team and the Raiders have very little home field advantage.

The Raiders' offensive line is broken and so is their beat up quarterback, Geno Smith. Minus injured left tackle Kolton Miller and right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson and Las Vegas has the worst offensive line in the league. It is a big reason why the Raiders entered this week scoring the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 15.4.

The Cowboys' defense has been bad so far, but it was greatly upgraded during their bye last week. Dallas added Quinnen Williams, one of the best run stuffers in the NFL, from the Jets and linebacker Logan Wilson, who may have been the Bengals' second-best defensive player until falling out of favor with Cincinnati management. The Cowboys are further reinforced with the return of DeMarvion Overshown from injury.

The Raiders are surrendering more than 24 points per game. They're not going to be able to keep up with the Cowboys' top-five offense.

I'm also expecting the Cowboys to play an emotional, intense game following the death of one of their players, Marshawn Kneeland.

Any guess on what quarterback has the highest passer rating against the Cardinals in at least three starts? It's Brock Purdy and he is back starting after missing six games with a toe injury.

That's a huge boost for the 49ers. San Francisco couldn't compete with the high-powered Rams last week. But the 49ers have not lost two in a row all season and are a level above the Cardinals.

Much is made of the 49ers' multiple defensive injuries, including those to star pass rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner. Yet the Cardinals also have key injuries - on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they will be without their best linebacker, Mack Wilson, and also could be missing cornerback Will Johnson.

Journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett needs weapons around him. But all he has aside from Star tight end Trey McBride are a bunch of scrub running backs and Michael Wilson as his No. 1 with wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. out after having surgery for his appendicitis.

Ricky Pearsall is back for San Francisco giving the 49ers three wide receivers all better than Wilson with Jauan Jennings and Kenrick Bourne. George Kittle is in McBride's elite tight end class superstar RB Christian McCaffrey is the fourth player in NFL history with at least 600 yards rushing and 600 yards receiving in his team’s first 10 games in a season.

This is a buy-low spot on the 49ers against a bad Cardinals team.

We are getting a nice discount on the Vikings because the record shows Chicago to be 6-3 and Minnesota 4-5.

The Vikings, though, are better than their record while the Bears are much worse than their record.

Chicago is off improbable back-to-back comeback victories against the Giants and Bengals. The Bears also own a pair of one-point victories against the Commanders and Raiders. The combined record of those two teams is 5-14.

The Bears have been outscored on the season.

I don't like slow-processing Caleb Williams in this tough road venue facing Brian Flores' blitz-happy Vikings. I'm not a huge fan of J.J. McCarthy, but I do believe he will play better and have an easier time than he did last week against the Ravens' savvy defense.

I give the Vikings' offensive line a huge check mark against the Bears defensive line.

Look for the Vikings to dominate the trenches and win this game with room to spare. 

The oddsmaker has Kennesaw State as a road favorite against Jacksonville State in this Conference USA showdown.

I don't buy that. I like the combination of the Gamecocks' running back Cam Cook and quarterback Caden Creel operating behind a physical offensive line. Jacksonville State ranks fourth in the nation in rushing at 261.1 yards per game. The Gamecocks are also 51st in run defense.

Kennesaw State can't match that. The Owls rank 60th in rushing and 75th in run defense. They run better than they pass. Their defense has managed only five takeaways.

Jacksonville State wins the trenches - and the game. 

Ohio is the slightest of favorites against Western Michigan. But the Bobcat should not be a road favorite at all.

Western Michigan not only is home, but has the superior defense. Only 11 teams in the country give up fewer yards per game than the Broncos. Western Michigan also ranks 19th in scoring defense, holding foes to 19 points a game. The Broncos have the second-best defense in the MAC.

Ohio, by contrast, gives up 5 more points per game than Western Michigan and ranks 76th in run defense and 73rd in pass defense.

Western Michigan is 5-1 in i's last six games. One of those wins was, 14-13, at home against Toledo as a 13 1/2-point underdog. The Broncos held the Rockets to nearly 20 points below their season average.

It's a good spot, too, for Western Michigan. The Broncos last played on November 1st and they don't have to travel for a short-week Tuesday game like Ohio does here.

The last time Utah played was this past Friday at Minnesota. The Timberwolves buried the Jazz, 137-97. That was the most points Utah has surrendered all season.

Now it's the Jazz's turn to host the Timberwolves and the timing is good for Utah to get revenge.

Minnesota is playing for the third time in four days and without rest after downing the Kings, 144-117, in Sacramento on Sunday night.

The Jazz hold a winning spread record as they often are underpriced. That's the case in this matchup. 

I hold Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin in high regard. But the fact is this: Rogers isn't a playmaker anymore and Tomlin doesn't have the good defense he's had in the past.

The Chargers hold three key edges here - quarterback with Justin Herbert, wide receivers and defense,

Herbert should be in MVP discussions. He ranks second in passing yards and touchdown throws and has four excellent receiving targets. He's going against a Pittsburgh secondary that ranks last in past defense.  This is a good time to sell high on the Steelers off their 27-20 upset win against the Colts last week. Pittsburgh won that game by one score despite being plus-5 in turnover ratio.

Rogers completed one pass of more than 10 yards through the air last week. He had 5.6 yards per attempt. The Colts play mostly zone coverage. So do the Chargers.

I don't see Rogers keeping up with Herbert, especially going against a Chargers defense that ranks third in pass defense.

The line is short because the Chargers are down a couple of offensive linemen. Herbert has excellent escape mobility and has successfully dealt with the situation before.

The price is cheap to back the Chargers.

Since opening week, no NFC team has been playing better than Seattle. The Seahawks have won and covered six of their last seven games. They are strong on both sides of the ball.

The spot is good for Seattle to win and cover again, catching the Cardinals traveling on a short week after upsetting the Cowboys on the road this past Monday night.

The Seahawks have beaten the Cardinals eight consecutive times.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the best wide receiver in the NFL. The Cardinals are dealing with multiple injuries in their secondary. The Seahawks just added deep threat Rashid Shaheed via a trade with the Saints.

The Cardinals have looked better with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback than with Kyler Murray. Brissett, though, is a 33-year-old journeyman with limitations. Brissett is facing a Seattle defense that has held opponents to the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt and fifth-lowest passer rating, while ranking third in sacks (27). I'd much rather have Seattle's defense at home going for me than Brissett.  

Never thought I would be saying this season, but the Patriots are actually in a letdown spot having won six in a row.

Drake Maye has emerged as a star. But the Patriots have played an extremely easy schedule. New England's last four victories have come against the Falcons, Browns, Titans and Saints. The combined record of those four teams is 7-27. The Bills are the only good opponent the Patriots have faced.

Maye has been carrying an offense with a below average rushing attack. The Buccaneers rank 7th against the run. Tampa Bay has had two weeks to prepare for Maye having been idle last week.

I don't see  Maye being able to successfully trade points against Baker Mayfield. 

If it weren't for an overtime loss to eighth-ranked BYU, Arizona would be 5-0 at home this season. The Wildcats are holding foes to an average of 12.5 points in regulation during their five home games.

Kansas' defense has fallen apart. The Jayhawks are yielding 32.4 points in their last five games. Kansas has trouble stopping the run and its cornerbacks are vulnerable to Arizona QB Noah Fifita, who has accounted for 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions.

The Jayhawks' offense also has regressed. Kansas was averaging 20.3 points per game in its last three games until producing 38 points against hapless 1-8 Oklahoma State. A cluster injury problem at tight end has hurt Kansas' offense.

At this point of the season, Arizona is at least a touchdown better then Kansas especially going by its track record at home.

Given a healthy Davis Alexander at quarterback and a better balanced lineup, I believe Montreal is the best team in the CFL. Look for the Alouettes to prove that here against Hamilton.

Montreal's offense looked great in a 42-33 Eastern Conference semifinal victory against Winnipeg. Alexander had a big game as did running back Stevie Scott III, who rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries.

Hamilton's run defense was the worst in the CFL this season, allowing more than 110 yards rushing per game.  

Tiger-Cats QB Bo Levi Mitchell had a big season. But Mitchell doesn't have a run game to fall back on like Alexander does.

Montreal also has the superior defense. The Alouettes allowed the fewest yards per game in the CFL. 

The Spurs return home following a two-game West Coast trip where they lost to the Suns and Lakers, failing to cover in either game.

Awaiting the Spurs are the 5-2 Rockets. Houston went 52-30 last season and is better this year with the addition of Kevin Durant. The Rockets are rolling right now, winning five in a row with four coming by blowouts.

Houston is a much better team than San Antonio. The Spurs are going through growing pains. San Antonio superstar center Victor Wembanyama didn't play that well during the West Coast trip. Houston's Ime Udoka is one of the better coaches in the NBA. He has the pieces to defend against Wembanyama.

The Rockets are loaded with Durant, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun. They are much stronger than the Spurs, so laying this short road price is a bargain.

It wouldn't be surprising if the Lakers sit out some of their players tonight. LA is playing without rest and for the sixth time in nine days. The Lakers had to use up a lot of energy in outracing the Heat, 130-120, at home last night.

The Blazers are playing their best basketball of the season riding a three-game win streak. This includes a 14-point road victory against the Lakers a week ago.

Unlike the Lakers, the Blazers come into this matchup well rested having last played on Friday.

Dallas is averaging 30.8 points per game, second-best in the NFL. The Cowboys have arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the league with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. They have the best kicker in the league by far with Brandon Aubrey and their pass rush is still solid even without Micah Parsons.

But somehow the Cowboys are only a field goal favorite at home against the Cardinals, who have lost five in a row. That's what misplaced love for Jacoby Brissett can cause.

The record needs to be set straight. The Cardinals are not as good, I repeat not as good, with Brissett at quarterback instead of injured Kyler Murray.

Brissett is a journeyman, pocket passer who wasn't good enough to start for the Patriots, Colts, Dolphins, Commanders and now Arizona. The Cardinals are below average in all major offensive categories. They also are 1-17 in their last 18 games without Murray!

Arizona's defense ranks among the bottom-12 in yards allowed. passing yards and takeaways. Cardinals cornerbacks Will Johnson and Max Melton are not going to get the better of Lamb and Pickens.

No Murray, no Cardinals cover.

You won't find a better buy-low spot on the Falcons than right here. Atlanta is off a 24-point home loss to the Dolphins, who just looked terrible against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. New England has won five in a row.

I find the Falcons to be the superior team, though. The only above average team the Patriots have beaten during their win streak was Buffalo. Their other victories came against the Browns, Titans, Saints and Panthers. Those four teams have a combined record of 8-24.

Atlanta also has defeated Buffalo. The Falcons have victories against the Commanders and  Vikings on the road, too. They were without Michael Penix and Drake London in their loss to the Dolphins and strangely only gave Bijan Robinson nine carries and three passing targets. Now  Penix and London are healthy and even an idiot like Raheem Morris can figure out that Robinson needs to be more heavily involved since he could be the best all-purpose back in the NFL.

The Falcons have won straight-up the past two times they've been underdogs.

Drake Maye has been carrying a pedestrian Patriots offense. Atlanta is much improved defensively and New England will be without its best running back, Rhamondre Stevenson.

The Patriots already have lost to the Steelers and Raiders at home this season. They are 4-13 in their last 17 home games.

Don't be deceived by Kansas State's 4-4 record. The Wildcats' four losses have come by a combined 13 points. If it weren't for a one-point loss to Baylor on a 53-yard field goal with 31 seconds left, Kansas State would be 4-0 in its last four games.

The Wildcats have posted consecutive upset victories against Kansas and TCU. They can beat Texas Tech, which was upset by Arizona State, 26-22, last week. That loss was no fluke as the Red Raiders were outgained by 118 yards.

Behren Morton is back from injury to quarterback Texas Tech. Morton, though, could be rusty. My preference is Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson, who has accounted for 20 touchdowns while throwing just two interceptions.

Texas Tech is 7-1. But I find them overrated. Kansas State has played a tougher schedule. That is worth something here.

Usually it is a disadvantage for the road team to play on Thursday night. Lamar Jackson makes this game an exception. Jackson is itching to play after missing the last three games.

The Ravens are in the argument for having the best offense when Jackson is under center. Miami's defense is no match. The Dolphins give up 26.9 points a game, which ranks 27th, and embarrassingly only have one takeaway.

The last time these teams met was on Dec. 31, 2023 at Baltimore. The Ravens won, 56-19. Jackson threw five touchdown passes in only 21 attempts. The Dolphins' defense was actually better back then than it is now.

The Ravens have gotten healthy on defense, too. Having Jackson back is going to give them a huge spark.

Look for a Baltimore blowout. 

The good news for the Lakers is Anthony Edwards is out for Minnesota with a hamstring injury. The bad news for the Lakers is they are far more banged-up than the Timberwolves.

It is not just LeBron James and Luka Doncic who are out for LA, which is certainly horrendous enough, but the Lakers have a cluster injury problem at guard.

How bad were things for the Lakers in their last game, a 122-108 home loss to the Trailblazers on Monday? Bronny James saw nearly 20 minutes of playing time.

The Timberwolves aren't exactly going to take pity on the Lakers. Minnesota has revenge for a 128-110 road loss to the Lakers this past Friday. Doncic torched the Wolves for 49 points in that game.

Julius Randle, Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid can all step up to replace the scoring lost by Edwards' absence. The Lakers don't have the depth, nor the scorers, to keep things close without LeBron James and Doncic. 

The Heat have changed their identity going from slow pace to very fast. It has resulted in impressive consecutive victories, a blowout of the Grizzlies and an 8-point win against the Knicks at home this past Tuesday.

Now the Hornets visit Miami. Charlotte is off to a nice 2-1 start. Note, though, those victories have occurred against the Wizards and Nets. Charlotte is not as good as Miami. The spot is bad for the Hornets, too, playing in their third road game in four days and not having rising star Brandon Miller. He has been ruled out with a shoulder injury.

Miami is second in the league in bench scoring. The Heat have the depth to take advantage of Charlotte's fatigue and missing Miller. They are worth backing in this spot.

The oddsmaker doesn't argue that Green Bay is the superior team making the Packers a road favorite. But can the Packers be trusted?

Not against elite opponents. But the Packers usually take care of business against mediocre foes. The standings show Pittsburgh to be 4-2. I don't see the Steelers being as good as that record. Their victories came against the 0-7 Jets, a Vikings team led by Carson Wentz and a Browns team led by Dillon Gabriel. Pittsburgh's other win occurred by one-score against a Patriots team that turned the ball over five times.

Green Bay's two key players, Jordan Love and Micah Parsons, are in their prime. Pittsburgh's two key players, Aaron Rodgers and T.J. Watt, are past their prime. Rodgers does not have the explosive playmakers around him that Love does.

The Steelers need to establish a ground attack to keep Parsons and Green Bay's fierce pass rush off Rodgers. The Packers, though, rank second in run defense.

The Packers like to think they are an elite team. They haven't shown that in their last four games. This is their chance to prove it in front of a national TV audience. 

No team needed a bye more than the 1-5 Ravens. The Ravens have a tremendous sense of urgency here knowing they can't afford a slip-up to a mediocre team like the Bears.

The Bears don't have the Ravens' motivation. They are fat and happy with four straight victories. Those wins came against the Saints, Raiders, Commanders and Cowboys. None of those four teams have a winning record. Chicago edged Washington and Las Vegas by one point each.  

Baltimore has terrible defensive numbers. Injuries have played a large part in that. though. Now the Ravens have some of their best defensive players back healthy including linebacker Roquan Smith.

Even without Jackson, the Ravens have multiple weapons and they get back two of their key blockers, left tackle Ronnie Stanley and fullback Patrick Ricard.

Flush with confidence and Jaxson Dart mania after upsetting the Eagles, the Giants headed to Denver last week.  There the cocky Giants built a 19-0 lead through three quarters before collapsing in a 33-32 loss, becoming the first NFL team in more than two decades to blow a lead of 18 points or more in the final six minutes and lose.

I don't think the Giants have recovered. Their brashness is gone.

Now the Giants have to travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles, who are in rapid revenge for a 34-17 loss suffered to the Giants two weeks ago. Ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio now has a first-hand look at Dart and the Eagles will have two of their key trench players, defensive lineman Jalen Carter and guard Landon Dickerson, back. Both were out in the earlier meeting against the Giants.

The Eagles have beaten the Giants 12 consecutive times at home.

No AJ Brown for the Eagles, but that is off-set with the Giants down two of their starting defensive backfield starters as safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Paulson Adebo are out.

Jalen Hurts has the two best weapons on his side - Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith. Philadelphia's kicking game also is far more reliable than the Giants.

Improved, yes. The Panthers are that. But improved enough to upset the Bills when Buffalo is off its bye? No way.

Carolina opened 1-3. Since then, the Panthers have ripped off three straight victories. Those wins have come against the Jets, Cowboys and Dolphins. The combined record of those three teams is 4-16-1.

No team is better following its bye week in NFL history than Buffalo under Sean McDermott, a perfect 8-0.

The biggest mismatch is at quarterback between Josh Allen, a top-three quarterback, and backup Andy Dalton, who turns 38 in a couple of days.

Carolina has a quarterback pressure rate of 26.3 percent, which ranks 31st in the league. Allen should feast.

Dalton, at his best, is a quarterback who does enough to keep his team in the game before blowing it with a stupid mistake. At his worst, Dalton is a washed-up turnover machine. 

These two teams are nearly identical and not just because they are each 5-2. Minnesota gives up the 19th fewest total yards and rushing yards per game. The Gophers have held opponents to an average of 19 points a game. Iowa is very strong defensively, too.

That is why we have such a low total. So taking this many points is highly attractive, especially in a rivalry matchup like this.  

Minnesota just impressively beat Nebraska, 24-6, this past Friday so they have an extra day of preparation. The Gophers sacked Nebraska's Dylan Raiola nine times. Raiola is a more talented quarterback than Iowa's Mark Gronowski.

Another major takeaway from that game was Minnesota running back Darius Taylor having his best game of the season with 148 yards rushing. Taylor had been hurt and now looks to be back on track. That's huge because he's one of the best running backs in the country.

Iowa needs to run the ball effectively. Minnesota, though, only has allowed more than 140 yards on the ground once. The Hawkeyes don't have a running back even close to the caliber of Taylor.

This comes down to a simple handicap. New Mexico is home and dangerous when it can rely on its rushing attack. That should be the case here against a bad Utah State defense that ranks 128th in total yards and 119th in points allowed at 31 per game.

The Lobos also have had better Red Zone success and are penalized less than Utah State.

The Aggies have played tough road competition. Nonetheless, they are 0-3 away from home losing to Hawaii, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M by a combined score of 143-83.

The stage is set for Virginia Tech today. The Hokies are home, drawing an opponent traveling cross country and  will be playing to a national TV audience on ESPN.

Just one problem, Virginia Tech isn't any good.

Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones is inconsistent and the defense ranks 110th in EPA per play and 106th in defensive success rate. Virginia Tech has forced only five turnovers. That's important because California relies on freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and a midrange passing game, which is quite effective when Sagapolutele doesn't turn the ball over.

The Golden Bears are 5-2 with impressive victories against Boston College and Minnesota. They have not been this good since 2009.

The Chargers have two huge edges against the Vikings that should prove the difference. Minnesota is at a severe disadvantage traveling on a short week. Los Angeles also has the far superior quarterback in Justin Herbert against Carson Wentz.

The last time Herbert went against the Vikings and their blitz crazy defensive coordinator Brian Flores was two seasons ago at Minneapolis. Herbert completed 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards and three touchdowns as the Chargers won, 28-24.

Not only does Herbert have the receiving weapons with Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and emerging tight end Oronde Gadsden II, but he has underrated athleticism and mobility running for 180 yards on 30 carries. The Vikings just allowed Jalen Hurts to have his best game of the season in a 28-22 home loss this past Sunday.

Wentz is a turnover-prone journeyman with a penchant for making boneheaded plays. The Chargers defense did not play well against high-powered Indianapolis last week, but they will get back pass rusher Khalil Mack. Minnesota has a banged-up offensive line so Mack could be effective. Los Angeles also is expected to have back offensive left tackle Joe Alt.

The Vikings have lost the turnover battle in each of their last three games, all with Wentz under center. Wentz has thrown four interceptions during this span to go with three touchdown passes.

I don't see the Vikings overcoming the quarterback difference and tough scheduling spot.

Even without injured Tyrese Haliburton and traded Myles Turner, I'm expecting the Pacers to give the Thunder all they can handle after losing to Oklahoma City in seven games in the NBA finals last season.

The timing is good for Indiana. Not only did the Thunder barely survive a two-overtime win against the upstart Rockets two days ago, but they already have multiple injuries.

Jalen Williams remains out due to wrist surgery. Alex Caruso is in the league’s concussion protocol and Cason Wallace (knee) and Luguentz Dort (ankle) are both questionable after getting hurt in the Rockets' victory.

The Raptors begin the season below the radar. They had a top-10 defense during the second half of last season, have a healthy Brandon Ingram and a better bench. They also have familiarity with each other since four starters remained with the team.

The Raptors finished last season covering 64 percent of their last 22 games. 

The Hawks underwent some major roster changes. It's going to take some time for their newcomers to click with Trae Young. I see the Hawks having some difficulty with Toronto's defense. 

Northwestern has won three in a row. But this has more to do with good timing rather than how good the Wildcats are. Northwestern's victories during this span have come against UL-Monroe - a mediocre Sun Belt Conference team -  UCLA before it's coaching change, and then last week in the final game of the James Franklin era when the Nittany Lions were down in the dumps having lost to Oregon and UCLA in its previous two games.

While Northwestern is overrated because of these victories, Purdue is underrated. Purdue outgained Minnesota, 456-252, but lost by seven points on the road last week. During their previous game, Purdue had three more first downs than Illinois and gained 453 yards but still lost.

Look for Northwestern's luck to run out here.

Bill Belichick can make life rough on an opposing freshman quarterback just like he did against rookie quarterbacks in the NFL. I get that college football and NFL are apples and oranges. But Belichick's Tar Heels are stepping way down in class after their last game against Clemson, which was a 38-10 defeat.

North Carolina has forced six turnovers and ranks fourth nationally in red zone defense. California is a huge step down from Clemson. The Golden Bears' freshman QB, Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, has thrown seven interceptions and doesn't have a ground attack to fall back on as the Golden Bears rank 126th in rushing.

Cal is regressing after a 3-0 start. The Golden Bears lost to Duke at home, 45-21, in their last game and also were blanked, 34-0, by San Diego State three games ago.

This is a chance for Belichick to get back some of his lost reputation and he's had two weeks to prepare for a turnover-prone freshman quarterback and a less than imposing foe.

It has become clear that Saskatchewan is going to punt this game having already won the West Division and with it a bye to the Western finals. The Roughriders are going to rest many of their offensive starters, including quarterback Trevor Harris, wide receivers KeeSean Johnson, Samuel Emilus and running back AJ Ouellette. There is a big drop from Harris to backup QB Jake Maier.

Winnipeg doesn't have the luxury of sitting out starters. The Blue Bombers are fighting for the No. 2 spot in the West being one game behind Calgary and BC.

The Blue Bombers have played much better at home where they are 5-2 at Princess Auto Stadium. Quarterback Zach Collaros will look to burn a Saskatchewan secondary that is allowing close to 290 yards per game through the air. Winnipeg also can rely on running back Brady Oliveira, who has rushed for 100-plus yards in three of his last four games while topping 1,000 yards rushing for the fourth straight season. 

This isn't just an ordinary Monday night game for the Bears. This is their revenge game of the season.

The Commanders ruined the Bears' season last year when Jayden Daniels connected on a 52-yard, final-play Hail Mary touchdown pass to give Washington an improbable 18-15 victory. The Bears were 4-2 before that game. They then went on to lose nine in a row following that disastrous loss.

Chicago is much better coached this season. The Bears'  offensive line has improved. Caleb Williams also has looked better.

The Bears have their confidence up after consecutive victories against the Cowboys and Raiders. Chicago is rested, too, having been idle last week. The time off has allowed CB Kyler Gordon and TE Colston Loveland to get healthy. The Commanders give up the eighth-most yards per game.

Washington's strength is Daniels and a solid ground attack that will try to exploit the Bears' weak run defense. However, Daniels could be without his two best wide receiving weapons as Terry McLaurin is sidelined for a third game in a row because of a quadriceps injury and Deebo Samuel is questionable because of a bruised heel.

The perception is the Seahawks are tough at home. The truth is, for whatever reason, is that the Seahawks have been great on the road. Seattle is 11-1 in its last 12 away games with the only loss coming to the Lions. Seattle is 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this season with victories against the Cardinals and Steelers.

Jacksonville is in a dangerous situational spot following Monday night’s emotional comeback win against Kansas City.

Trevor Lawrence gets a lot of publicity, but Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold has outplayed him this season. 

Nevada is a dangerous 1-4 team. The Wolf Pack have an underrated defense and finally found their best quarterback, freshman Carter Jones. Given a chance in the second half, Jones nearly led Nevada to a road upset of Fresno State last week throwing two touchdowns.

The Wolf Pack have been hurt by a nation-worst 10 interceptions. San Diego State has good defensive statistics,  but only has four takeaways in five games. The Aztecs lack an explosive offense and have won just three of their last 13 road games the past three seasons.

Nevada is stout against the run with a solid defensive line that has 31 stops behind the line of scrimmage and 13 sacks. San Diego State ranks 90th in total yards and 106th in passing yards. The Aztecs are averaging fewer than 10 points a game in two road games this season.

The oddsmaker is overrating San Diego State here and not accounting for Nevada's upgraded quarterback play.

We can't ignore history here. The 10th-ranked Bulldogs have won 44 consecutive games against unranked opponents. Georgia also has beaten Auburn eight straight times, covering six of them. This is the shortest point spread Georgia has had to lay against Auburn during the last five meetings.

Yes, Georgia may be down a little bit from the high bar it has been the past few seasons, but the Bulldogs are still at least a touchdown better than the Tigers.

Hugh Freeze has failed to get Auburn back on track with a 5-13 SEC record. I respect the Tigers' defense, but not their offense, nor quarterback Jackson Arnold. Auburn ranks 113th in yards passing. The Tigers are tied for the second most penalties in the SEC at 8.8. per game.

Georgia has a bevy of good running backs and quarterback Gunner Stockton has proven capable. Auburn is not explosive enough to stay with Georgia.

Not only did Toronto get eliminated from the playoffs with its loss to Hamilton last week, but the Argonauts lost their starting quarterback, Nick Arbuckle, for the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury. Arbuckle had thrown for 4,370 yards and 26 touchdowns.

I don't like Toronto's chances of staying within single digits of Saskatchewan. The Roughriders own the best record in the CFL at 11-4. Toronto is 5-11.

After losing to Montreal and Edmonton by a combined five points, Saskatchewan got right last week beating Ottawa on the road, 20-13, as 6-point favorites. The Roughriders' defense looked good.  

Saskatchewan defeated the Argonauts, 39-32, on the road back in June. The Roughriders should take care of business at home now that they are back on track while Toronto is out of the playoff hunt and forced to use backup quarterback Jarret Doege.

How excited is the North Texas fan base for their team's nationally televised (ESPN2) home game against 24th-ranked South Florida? Excited enough for the university to cancel classes on Friday.

This could be the most attended game in North Texas football history.

South Florida averages 36.2 points per game behind dual threat quarterback Byrum Brown. The Bulls have played a harder schedule than North Texas.

North Texas, though, has the better overall statistics. The Mean Green rank eighth in points scored per game at 44.8. They also are 40th in total defense while opening 5-0 for the first time since 1959.

The Mean Green are well balanced and don't commit turnovers like South Florida does. North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker has 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions this season. Brown, by contrast, has been picked off four times in the past three games.

Brown is going against a North Texas pass defense that is best in the American Athletic Conference and one that ranks eighth in the country.

I don't believe South Florida is a top-25 team. This is North Texas' moment. 

Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo are a couple of fun to watch rookies. Truth be told, though, neither is very good. Dart is inexperienced and inaccurate. Skattebo is a straight ahead runner without any moves. Malik Nabers was the Giants' only star skill position player and he's out.

Both the Giants' offensive line and skill position players are well below average. It's not a surprise the Giants rank last in the NFL with a 31.6-percent red-zone TD conversion rate.

So don't overthink this game just because the Eagles blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead against the Broncos last week. Philadelphia had won 10 in a row prior to that game. The Eagles are 20-2 in their last 22 games.

They have dominated the Giants, defeating them seven of the past eight times. The lone New York victory during this span occurred when Philly rested some starters in Week 18 of 2023.

There is a huge class difference here. I consider the Eagles to be the best team in the NFC and the Giants to be among the bottom-three in the NFC with the Panthers and Saints, who they lost to last week. 

Were you impressed with the Jaguars' upset road win against the 49ers this past Sunday?

I wasn't. The 49ers were flat, Brock Purdy was rusty and San Francisco's defense was down minus Nick Bosa. The Jaguars were plus four in turnover ratio and outgained by 64 yards, yet still only won by five points.

The Jaguars like to think they are good at 3-1 under new coach Liam Coen, but I don't see it. What I see is Trevor Lawrence still locking way too long on his first target. Coen criminally underutilizing Travis Hunter and Jacksonville leading the NFL with 13 takeaways.

The Jaguars have generated at least three takeaways in all four games this season. They are an NFL-best plus nine in turnover ratio. That is a lot of good fortune. 

Jacksonville's world is about to collide with an emerging Kansas City. It is not a good time to be playing the Chiefs. Sparked by the return of Xavier Worthy, which has re-energized Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are riding new found momentum on offense to go with a strong defense.

It doesn't help Jacksonville that defensive lineman Travon Walker (wrist) and safety Eric Murray (neck) were both injured against the 49ers.

Who are you going to trust here, Mahomes or Lawrence?

The answer is obvious to me.

The Seahawks are not getting enough attention. They are a very good team right now. Seattle has won three in a row and has been looking good on both sides of the ball.

The Seahawks entered this week with the second best point differential. They ranked second on defense with 16.8 points allowed per game and sixth on offense at 27.8 points scored per game.

Sam Donald is proving that last year was not a fluke. He is orchestrating a well-rounded offense. Defensively, Seattle is giving up the third-lowest yards per play and have produced 12 sacks and seven interceptions.

Tampa Bay is lucky to be 3-1. The Buccaneers got back left tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receiver Chris Godwin last week, but their injury list is far longer than Seattle's and much more grim. Tampa Bay has multiple injuries on both of its lines, is minus Mike Evans and likely won't have their top running back, Bucky Irving.

I see the home Seahawks controlling both lines of scrimmage while their offense is explosive enough to win this game by more than a touchdown. 

The Aces held off the Mercury, 89-86, this past Friday night at home. But it took reserve guard Dana Evans' best game of the season for that to happen. Evans scored 21 points, hitting 8-of-13 shots from the floor and five-of-six 3-pointers.

Jewell Loyd also had a big game off the bench for Las Vegas with 19 points. The Aces' bench players outscored Phoenix's reserves, 41-16.

I don't see that happening again. Phoenix has a strong bench, Evans isn't that good and Lloyd has been a major disappointment.

Phoenix had a chance to take the lead with 24.6 seconds left, but Alyssa Thomas missed two free throws.

The Mercury can match Las Vegas' three stars with their own three stars - Thomas, Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally.

Aces' superstar A'ja Wilson looked tired missing jumpers she normally hits. Statistically, the game was even with Phoenix outrebounding Las Vegas.

Game 2 should be just as tight, so I'll take the points.

Fresno State averaging 32.8 points per game is highly misleading. The Bulldogs inflated their point total by scoring 56 points against Southern, a FCS school. Kansas held Fresno State to seven points on offense and the Bulldogs could only manage 16 points against Hawaii.

Note, too, that Fresno State has scored three touchdowns via its defense and special teams.

Fresno State quarterback EJ Warner is far from the image of his father, Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner. I find Warner to be mediocre at best and I see the Bulldogs having trouble running against Nevada's stout rush defense.

Nevada has been hurt by turnovers and red zone inefficiency. If the Wolf Pack can clean up those areas they can spring the outright upset because Fresno State is overrated.

It comes down to this: I don't believe in Maryland. I find the Terrapins to be a bogus 4-0. They have played terrible offenses - Florida Atlantic, Northern Illinois, Towson, an FCS school, and Wisconsin.

This is a huge step down for Washington after playing Ohio State. The Huskies dominated their first three games, winning by an average of 37.6 points against Colorado State, UC Davis and Washington State. Washington averaged 55.6 pts before a 24-6 loss to Ohio State.

I see a class difference here. Washington has the best quarterback, Demond Williams Jr., running back Jonah Coleman and wide receiver, Denzel Boston.

Home court is strong enough in playoff basketball without any help from the officiating. But in the WNBA playoff home court really means something given how bad the league officiating is.

Minnesota was homered in the title game last year against the Liberty in New York and the Lynx were homered in Game 3 on the road against Phoenix this year.

Las Vegas knows that feeling. The Aces were homered in Game 4 at Indiana this past Sunday losing, 90-83. The Fever shot 34 free throws. The Aces only took 11 free throws.

But now the Aces get the Fever at home. Las Vegas is 17-5 at home. The Aces buried Indiana, 90-68, at home in Game 2 of this series.

A'ja Wilson is the best player in the league. No way does Indiana center Aliyah Boston get the better of Wilson.

The Aces are a much better free throw shooting team than Indiana. The Aces also are healthy, something the Fever are not. The Fever have shown a lot of spunk and guts to go this far in the playoffs despite missing multiple rotation players, including star guard Caitlin Clark.

But I see the Fever running out of gas here. Las Vegas has too strong of a track record at home and are the superior team. It's just a bonus if the Aces get added help by the officiating, which has been blatantly slanted toward home teams in the playoffs.

The Bengals are extremely fortunate to be 2-1 instead of 0-3. But in their first game without Joe Burrow this season they were buried, 48-10, by the Vikings on the road last week.

Burrow was propping up a bad defense, terrible offensive line and a not very good lead running back.

Now with Burrow out, I don't see the Bengals competitive on the road against good teams such as the Broncos.

The Bengals are kidding themselves if they think Jake Browning, a dink-and-dunker, can keep them in games. The Broncos have held opponents to an average of 14.5 points at home during the Sean Payton era.

Denver holds a major coaching edge, has a strong advantage in both trenches and owns home motivation for a rare prime time game.

Cincinnati has yet to face a mobile quarterback. Now the Bengals get Bo Nix, who is in a get-right spot against this bad of a defense.

After sleepwalking their way to an embarrassing, 13-10, loss to the Browns last week, the Packers are on the national stage meeting the Cowboys in Dallas for the Sunday night game.

The Packers have much to prove offensively.

I expect the Packers to redeem themselves given such a low bar. Dallas is giving up 30.6 points a game. In their last two games, the Cowboys have surrendered 31 points to the Bears and 37 points to the Giants and Russell Wilson.

Jordan Love should enjoy similar success.

Micah Parsons, in his hyped return to Dallas, spearheads a much improved Packers defense that finally has a dominant pass rush.

Dak Prescott isn't going to be able to trade points with the Packers, especially without superstar wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. 

No Napheesa Collier, no chance for Minnesota. And I doubt Collier plays after suffering shoulder and leg injuries in the Lynx's Game  3 loss to the Mercury.

The Lynx and their coach, Cheryl Reeve, are on tilt following Friday's road loss to Phoenix. Reeve went crazy at the end of the game due to the horrendous officiating.

Minnesota really lost this series when it blew a 20-point lead at home in Game 2. The Lynx haven't recovered.

Phoenix's confidence level is sky high, the Mercury are home and their three stars are playing well.

I'm buying low on the Falcons here.

The Falcons are at low ebb returning home following an embarrassing, 30-0, road loss to the Panthers.

Atlanta very well could be 2-1 instead of 1-2. The Falcons had much better statistics against the Buccaneers, but lost by three points opening week. They then impressively beat the Vikings on the road exposing J.J. McCarthy for the fraud he is before laying an egg against the Panthers.

This is the mother of get-right spots for the Falcons. They have the weapons around Michael Penix to do it with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney and what looks to be a rejuvenated Kyle Pitts.

Washington's defense is not impressive. The Commanders yielded 144 receiving yards to Tucker Kraft two weeks ago and 145 receiving yards and three touchdowns to Tre Tucker last week. These are not high impact players yet the Commanders made them look like stars.

Now Washington faces real stars in Robinson and London while being without their two biggest offensive stars, Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin.

Classic letdown spot for Memphis after the Tigers came back from an 18-point deficit to upset Arkansas on national TV at home last week. It was the first time the Tigers had hosted a power conference opponent since 2021 and is one of their best victories in school history.

Now the Tigers have a chance to open 5-0 for the first time since 2019. Memphis very well could achieve that mark, but I don't see the Tigers having an easy time of it here.

Florida Atlantic is hungry for a big win in the new Zach Kittley era. The Owls have an excellent quarterback - Caden Veltkamp - have had two weeks to prepare after being idle last week and are at home.

Veltkamp is the reigning CUSA Offensive Player of the Year at Western Kentucky. He transferred to Florida Atlantic to play for Kittley, an air raid disciple with offensive coordinator stops at WKU and Texas Tech. Veltkamp is leading the country in completions per game.

Florida Atlantic's passing game, two weeks of preparation and catching the Tigers off one of the school's greatest victories, makes Memphis vulnerable.

Florida Atlantic has the worst turnover margin in the country at minus-8 through three games. Turnovers can be hard to predict, though, and the Owls have had two weeks to work on this. Florida Atlantic's defense should look much better without its offense turning the ball over so often.

After getting upset in Game One, the Aces got back on track routing Indiana, 90-68, in Game 2 this past Tuesday.

Just like they did against Atlanta, the Fever got physical. There were 41 fouls called on Tuesday.

This game is expected to be highly physical, too. The Aces, besides being the superior team, are healthy while the Fever are missing several key players.

Las Vegas also is the better free throw shooting team ranking No. 2 in the league. Indiana rates 9th in free throw percentage. That's important in a game in which plenty of free throws are likely to be taken.

Calgary has been outscored, 83-42, in losing its last two games. That's a concern. Another concern is the Stampeders' quarterback injuries. Starter Vernon Adams Jr. was unable to finish last week’s game and backup P.J. Walker reportedly is done for the season. Adams was limited in practice on Tuesday.

I like the Alouettes to win by more than this point spread margin even if Adams plays as he likely would be less than 100 percent.

While the Stampeders are floundering, the Alouettes are coming on having won two in a row with one of these victories coming against Saskatchewan. The Roughriders have the best record in the CFL.

Montreal has the superior defense and its quarterback, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, has been steady. The Alouettes also have a bye next week so they will be holding nothing back.

The WNBA is wide open this season. Minnesota had the best regular season record and deserves to be favored.

But the Lynx aren't that dominant where they should be in this high of a point spread range.

Phoenix eliminated the defending champion Liberty. The three best players in the WNBA are A'ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier and Phoenix's Alyssa Thomas, who is the Oscar Robertson of the league averaging 15.4 points, 8.8 rebounds and 9.2 assists.

The Mercury took out the Liberty this past Friday night. They then had to play Game One at Minnesota this past Sunday. Despite the scheduling and disadvantage, Phoenix had a 7-point halftime lead and the game was tied at the end of the third quarter.

Phoenix ran out of gas and lost, 82-69.

That shouldn't be the case in Tuesday's Game 2. I also don't expect the Mercury to miss 20 of 23 of their 3-pointers like they did in Game 1.

Note, too, that the Lynx are missing DiJonai Carrington, one of the best defenders in the league and a key rotational part for Minnesota.

Phoenix has its big three healthy - Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Cooper. That makes the Mercury extremely dangerous.

Less than two years ago these teams met in Baltimore and the Ravens crushed the Lions, 38-6.

Since then the Lions have gotten worse and the Ravens have gotten better to the point where Baltimore has the best offense in the NFL.

So, why should anything be different this time around?

It shouldn't. The pattern remains the same. The Ravens' well-balanced, high-powered attack is going to produce plenty of points led by Lamar Jackson, who seems to play his best on Monday Night Football accounting for 25 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Jackson has a 24-2 career record versus NFC teams, too.

Jared Goff plays much worse in outdoor road settings such as this one.

The Ravens are still carrying a chip on their shoulder after blowing a nationally televised Week 1 game to the Bills. They won't be taking their foot off the pedal here.

I'm going to buy low on the 0-2 Chiefs and they can't get any lower than this being less than a touchdown favorite against the Giants.

Aside from good pass rushers and the magnificent Malik Nabors, the Giants are nothing. They can't run nor stop the run. Russell Wilson is well past his prime and ready to lose his starting position in the very near future. Brian Daboll has been a failure as New York's head coach. The stage always has been too big for the Giants under Daboll and it will be here, too.

Going back to last year's Super Bowl, the Chiefs have lost three in a row. Patrick Mahomes has never lost four consecutive games as a starting quarterback at either Texas Tech or with the Chiefs,

True, Mahomes is missing some wide receiving weapons. It is also true that Mahomes elevates everyone around him. The Chiefs have the better offensive line and the superior defense. They have ranked in the top-five in fewest points allowed each of the previous two seasons. They just held the Eagles below 21 points and under 300 total yards of offense last week.

There's plenty of talk of a Giants upset here. I find that talk foolish. 

Before we anoint the Packers Super Bowl champions, let's see how they do in their first road game. Green Bay is traveling to Cleveland to take on an 0-2 desperate Browns team.

First off, Cleveland should be 1-1. The Browns lost to the Bengals opening week despite out-gaining Cincinnati, 327-141, and having double the first downs. The Browns kept Joe Burrow in check the entire game. The only reason the Browns lost was because their kicker let them down.

Then last week the Browns were destroyed by the Ravens, whose offense could be the best in the NFL.

Green Bay is without its most consistent wide receiver, Jayden Reed, and likely to be without right offensive tackle Zach Tom.

As good as Micah Parsons is, he's not the best pass rusher in the NFL. Myles Garrett is and the Packers are going to have problems with him. Cleveland also has the best run defense in the NFL. The Browns allow just 2.1 yards per carry. The Packers heavily rely on running back Josh Jacobs, who is not elusive.

Joe Flacco is the Browns' best choice at quarterback. He makes up for his age and lack of mobility with veteran savvy. Look for Flacco to offset Green Bay's emerging pass rush by using a quick passing game utilizing tight ends David Njoku and good-looking rookie Harold Fannin Jr. along with Jerry Jeudy as an underneath-to-intermediate target.

I don't trust Matt LaFleur on the road. Green Bay had a losing away spread record last season. They only managed to win road games against the Bears by one point and Jaguars by three points.

Not only are the Packers fat and happy right now at 2-0, but they have a huge look-ahead game as they play at the Cowboys in the Sunday night game next week.

I envision a letdown for Hamilton following its emotional home victory last Friday against Winnipeg. That was the Tiger-Cats' first home game since the passing of their general manager Ted Goveia from cancer. It was also Hamilton's second victory in a row and put the Tiger-Cats up by three games in the East.

Edmonton is the more desperate team. The Elks are off a last-second field goal loss to Toronto.

The Elks started slow with losses in their first three games. They have become far more competitive since Cody Fajardo became their starting quarterback going 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, while winning four of their last six. Only once in their last eight games have the Elks lost by more than four points.

If you discount Hamilton holding Montreal to nine points two games ago, the Tiger-Cats are yielding an average of 30.5 points in their last six games. The Elks have the firepower to trade points with Hamilton and stay within this point spread, if not pull the outright upset.

Toledo is a fade when the Rockets are laying points on the road like they are here. The Rockets have failed to cover 11 of the past 14 times as a road favorite.

Statistically, Western Michigan is a tough team to back coming off a 38-0 road loss to Illinois. But on closer inspection, the Broncos have been competitive in going 0-3. They nearly upset North Texas as 11 1/2-point underdogs losing in overtime. They held Michigan State to 23 points and we're only down 10 points at halftime to Illinois before caving.

Toledo is fat and happy after crushing Morgan State, 60-0, at home last Saturday. That coupled with Western Michigan's lopsided loss to Illinois last week has made this an inflated point spread in my view giving the Broncos value, especially against such a poor road favorite.

The winless Dolphins have serious problems. The schedule maker did Miami no favor as this is the worst possible spot and matchup for the Dolphins. Miami has to travel on a short week to face the Bills, who could be the best team in football right now.

The unbeaten Bills rank first in total offense. They are scoring 35.5 points per game. Miami has given up 33 points to each of its two opponents, the Patriots and Colts. Buffalo has a better offense than either of those two teams.

No longer can the Dolphins offense carry their weak defense. Injuries have wiped out the right side of Miami's offensive line. Given little protection, immobile Tua Tagovailoa has looked terrible. A quick fix is not going to occur in such a short time. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel looks and sounds like a beaten man. I actually feel sorry for the guy.

The only thing McDaniel is going to win is to be the first head coach fired in the NFL this season. That's a prop worth playing as I anticipate the Dolphins to be blown out here and for Miami management to fire McDaniel following the game.

Buffalo has beaten Miami in 13 of the last 14 games, including the past five. Those Dolphins teams were better than this current one.

The Dolphins can't count on turnovers either. The Bills have gone 24 straight games without losing the turnover battle. That's the longest streak in 75 years. 

Indiana put all of its efforts into winning Game 2 at home this past Tuesday. That was the Fever's first playoff win in 10 years.
 
I don't see the injury-ravaged Fever staying within this point spread against Atlanta on the road. Indiana has six players out. 

The Dream beat the Fever by 12 points at home in Game 1 of this playoff series. They are the healthier and superior team.

Atlanta is the best rebounding team in the WNBA and also has the third-best defense. Indiana can't match that.

The Valkyries have proven resilient all season becoming the first WNBA expansion team to make the playoffs. They get tremendous fan support at Chase Center, where their 18,064 arena is sold out.

This should be a tight defensive game with every point mattering. Golden State is eliminated with a loss.

This is what Minnesota superstar Napheesa Collier said about today's matchup: “No one on this team thinks that this is going to be an easy game, by any means. We know it’s going to be a fight. They all work really, really hard. That’s been a staple of their team this entire season, and their home crowd is really great. It’s going to be a really tough game, and we have to make sure that we come with our A-game, especially on defense.”  

The Valkyries should get a better break from the officials than they did in Game 1 at Minnesota being home now and after their coach, Natalie Nakase, complained about the officiating.

Note, too, that Golden state had the second-best point spread mark in the league during the regular season covering 64 percent of their games.

Fever coach Stephanie White promises her team will play better on Tuesday after Indiana lost, 80-68, on the road to Atlanta this past Sunday. A loss eliminates Indiana because this is a best-of-three series.

I am taking White at her word.

The Fever have shown resilience all season. They made the postseason despite having five players lost for the season, including superstar Caitlin Clark.

Atlanta has had a tremendous season. But this is the first time Indiana is hosting a playoff game since 2016. The Fever still have several stars including Kelsey Mitchell. So I'm going to back the Fever taking points in this must-win home spot.