Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-26-22 | Nevada +12.5 v. UNLV | 22-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
UNLV's season began highly promising with the Rebels going 4-1. But the Rebels won't be going bowling having lost their past six games, including their last one as an 11-point road favorite against Hawaii. Nevada-Reno blew out the Rebels, 51-20, in last year's annual rivalry game at home. This one is at UNLV. The Wolf Pack have gone through a rebuilding season. They aren't good. But this has been an underdog series with the 'dog winning six of the last nine times straight-up. Nevada always gets up for this game more than the Rebels. UNLV may win based on a superior ground attack, but Nevada will be giving an all-out effort and should stay within double-digits. The Rebels just aren't strong enough to lay this high of a number. | |||||||
11-26-22 | Iowa State v. TCU UNDER 47.5 | Top | 14-62 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Iowa State has gone Under in its last seven Big 12 Conference games. It's easy to see why. The Cyclones have the top defense in the league, but the worst offense. The Cyclones aren't going bowling for the first time since 2016. So playing unbeaten fourth-ranked TCU is their bowl game. Look for Iowa State to play its usual tough defensive, field-position type of game especially being on the road. The Under is 21-8-1 in the Cyclones' last 30 road contests. TCU already has its ticket punched for the Big 12 title game next week. The Horned Frogs don't want to show too much in this game so as not to tip their hand. They would be satisfied with a victory, not running up a huge score. | |||||||
11-26-22 | Auburn +22.5 v. Alabama | 27-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a monster rivalry game. The question is can Auburn can hang within three touchdowns of the Crimson Tide? Before this month, I would have said no. Now I say yes seeing how the Tigers have performed under interim coach Carnell Williams. Williams starred at Auburn before going on to the NFL playing for the Buccaneers. He has reignited a Tigers program that was dead earlier this season. Auburn is 3-0 ATS since Williams took over losing to Mississippi State in overtime as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog, edging Texas A&M and rolling past Western Kentucky. I trust the Tigers to play hard again for Williams especially in this matchup. Great expectations were expected of Alabama this season, but the Crimson Tide have been overrated with losses to Tennessee and LSU. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. | |||||||
11-26-22 | Oilers +129 v. Rangers | 4-3 | Win | 129 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
Note a very early start time here. It's important in fading the Rangers in this spot. The Rangers just concluded a four-game West Coast trip late Wednesday night. So they had to fly cross country on Thanksgiving. This will be their third game in five days. It's almost like playing a fourth game in five days, though, because of the early start time. The Oilers won't be bothered by this. They've been in New York the past few days. They last played at the Islanders on Wednesday. The Rangers are 2-6 in their last eight home games. The Oilers have defeated the Rangers in five of the past six meetings. The Oilers have a winning road mark. | |||||||
11-26-22 | Georgia State v. Marshall UNDER 50 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 15 m | Show |
You can't go wrong taking the Under when Marshall is involved. The Thundering Herd has gone Under in nine of its 11 games. Marshall has a top-10 defense, a weak passing attack and runs the ball a lot. That's a winning Under combination. Georgia State can't pass either. The Panthers rank 107th in passing. Marshall is hardly any better, rating 104th in passing. Marshall is holding foes to 15.5 points a game. Georgia State's defense isn't very good, but it is opportunistic coming up with 13 takeaways, which ranks 15th in the nation. The oddsmaker has opened this total too high. There haven't been more than 49 points scored in any of Marshall's past eight games. This one shouldn't be any different. Note, too, that the early weather forecast is for a 50 percent chance of rain with 10-to-15 mph winds. | |||||||
11-26-22 | South Carolina v. Clemson OVER 52.5 | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show | |
The buy sign is on these two offenses. Spencer Rattler finally lived up to his big reputation last week for South Carolina. The Oklahoma transfer passed for 438 yards and six touchdowns in the Gamecocks' 63-38 win against Tennessee. The Over has cashed in 11 of South Carolina's last 14 road games. Clemson's attack is in gear, too. The Tigers have produced a combined 71 points in their last two games crushing Miami and Louisville. | |||||||
11-25-22 | Cavs v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The Cavaliers come into Milwaukee fat and happy after celebrating Thanksgiving having swept their four-game homestand. They'll find an angry Bucks team awaiting them. Milwaukee is 9-2 at home this season. However, one of its losses just occurred to the Bulls on Wednesday, 118-113. The Bucks buried the Cavaliers, 113-98, when the teams last met nine days ago in Milwaukee. That was the seventh time in the last nine tries the Bucks have covered against the Cavaliers at home. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in the league averaging 30.5 points, 11.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists. The Bucks get back Wesley Matthews, too, to boost their rotation. | |||||||
11-25-22 | Lakers -3 v. Spurs | 105-94 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
The Lakers are playing better and have a great opportunity to win their first road game here, likely getting back LeBron James and taking on the pathetic Spurs. San Antonio is young and bad, losers of 11 of its last 12 games. The Spurs rank last in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Lakers certainly have the scorers to take advantage. The Lakers just blasted the Spurs, 123-92, at home this past Sunday. And that was without James. LA had won three in a row until falling to the Suns, 115-105, on the road three days ago. Time for the Lakers to begin a new win streak. They couldn't ask for an easier opponent. | |||||||
11-25-22 | Hawks v. Rockets +7.5 | 122-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
The Rockets haven't played since Sunday. Not only will be they be rested, but the extra practice time should come in handy for such a young, developing team. So Atlanta could get ambushed here. The Hawks just ended the Kings' seven-game win streak with a 115-106 home win two days ago. The Hawks are 2-9 ATS after covering in their previous game. Atlanta is not a good shooting team especially from beyond the arch, ranking 27th in 3-point shooting. The Rockets rank 11th in 3-point defense. They will make the Hawks earn their points in what should be a back-and-forth closer game than what the oddsmaker thinks. | |||||||
11-25-22 | Islanders v. Blue Jackets OVER 6 | 3-2 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
The teams just met two weeks ago and the Islanders beat the Blue Jackets, 4-3, in overtime. There were 75 shots on goal in that game with 46 coming from the Islanders. I'm expecting at least seven goals to be scored in this matchup, too. The Islanders have scored 3 or more goals in 12 of their last 15 games. The Blue Jackets have given up at least 3 goals in 11 of their past 12 games, allowing 4 or more goals in nine of those games. New York goalie Ilya Sorokin could face fatigue issues having made 79 saves during the last two game, which were played this Monday and Wednesday. | |||||||
11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Missouri is tough at home going 4-2 with the losses coming to Georgia and Kentucky by four points each. That's the closest any team has come to beating undefeated Georgia this season. The Tigers can secure bowl eligibility with a victory. It's also a revenge spot for the Tigers. Arkansas won last year's game, 34-17. Previous to that, though, the Tigers had won five in a row in the series. Arkansas gained its bowl eligibility last week upsetting Mississippi, 42-27. The Razorbacks could suffer a letdown after that great win. This is just Arkansas' fourth true road game. The Razorbacks could be minus their second-leading tackler, linebacker Bumper Pool. He's dealing with hip and back injuries. | |||||||
11-24-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Vikings | 26-33 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
If you're impressed with the Vikings' 8-2 record don't be. Minnesota has a losing point spread record and has been outscored on the season. The Vikings were exposed at home by the Cowboys, 40-3, last Sunday. Minnesota lost its best offensive lineman, left tackle Christian Darrisaw, in the second quarter of the game due to a concussion. The Cowboys recorded seven sacks on 30 Minnesota dropbacks. The Patriots have a dominant defense, too, ranking No. 2 in giving up the fewest points per game at 16.9. New England ranks No. 2 to Dallas in sacks with 36. Matthew Judon leads the NFL with 13 sacks. Kirk Cousins lacks mobility. He's going to have trouble against New England's pressure, well-coached defense. New England has a pair of good running backs and receiving depth. The Patriots produced nearly 300 yards of offense against a much superior Jets defense last week in cold weather. Now the Patriots are in a dome facing a banged-up Minnesota secondary. | |||||||
11-24-22 | Iowa State v. Villanova UNDER 131.5 | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
T.J. Otzenberger turned Iowa State into one of the best defensive teams in the country last season with the Cyclones giving up 63 points a game and finishing in the top-five in overall adjusted defense, according to KenPom ratings. Guess what? The Cyclones are showing definite signs of being even better defensively this season. Iowa State has held its first three opponents to an average of 45 points a game, best in the nation. The combination of Villanova's slow pace, Iowa State's great defense and this game being played in neutral site Portland, Ore., should mean another Under. The Wildcats are trying to rebuild their offense having lost key playmakers Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels. Villanova is playing at a slow, deliberate pace. The Wildcats don't have to worry too much about Iowa State heating up from 3-point range. The Cyclones rank 339th in 3-point shooting. Meeting on a neutral court is another plus for the Under. Iowa State has gone Under in its last five neutral site games. Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last 10 neutral site matchups. | |||||||
11-24-22 | Bills -9.5 v. Lions | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 17 m | Show |
Josh Allen and Co. won't have an easier defense to go against all season than Detroit. The Lions give up the most yards and points per game in the NFL. They also are likely to be minus their best defensive backfield player in cornerback Jeff Okudah, who is in concussion protocol. The Bills just played at Ford Field this past Sunday when their game was moved from Buffalo to Detroit. A fast track makes the Bills' up-tempo offense even more potent. The Lions have won three in a row beating the Giants, Bears and Packers. The Bills are a huge step up for them. Buffalo is overdue to play better after not producing an "A'' level game during the last four weeks since beating the Chiefs. Detroit hasn't won on Thanksgiving since 2016 when Jim Caldwell was its coach. Don't look for the Lions to end that streak here. | |||||||
11-23-22 | Rangers v. Ducks UNDER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 101 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The Ducks are a low-scoring team once again. They have produced just six goals in regulation during their last 10 games, an average of 1.6 goals during this span. This is the Ducks' first game back from three games on the road - all losses. They should be primed for a big effort and that means tight-checking and defensive intensity. The Rangers are back to winning. They beat the Kings, 5-3, at LA last night for their second straight victory. I don't see the Rangers being up-tempo playing without rest. The Under is 12-5 in their last 17 road games. The Under also has cashed the last five times when the Rangers have scored 5 or more goals in their past game. There's the possibility the Rangers start backup Jaroslav Halak in net instead of star Igor Shesterkin. I'm fine if that happens. The Rangers would be more defensive-oriented and take less chances if Halak were in goal. Halak has given up two goals in regulation during each of his last two starts facing the Predators and Red Wings. | |||||||
11-23-22 | Jackson State +22.5 v. Michigan | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Michigan barely escaped Ohio at home in its last game, winning in overtime this past Sunday as a 14 1/2-point home favorite. Now the Wolverines are laying a big number against Jackson State, who has two very good players and plays in the underrated Southwestern Athletic Conference. I find this number to be too large so I'm on the underdog Tigers. Jackson State is 0-3 with losses to Abilene Christian, Tulsa and Little Rock by an average of six points. The Tigers are just two years removed from dominating the SWAC. Now they are rebuilding under first year head coach Mo Williams, a former NBA All-Star. Williams has two excellent players to build around in Ken Evans and Trace Young, who transferred from Wyoming. Jackson State is averaging 75.3 points a game. Michigan could have fewer fans than normal for this home contest due to Thanksgiving break. The Wolverines' focus may be off, too. | |||||||
11-23-22 | 76ers v. Hornets -4.5 | 101-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
Surprised at this line? Don't be this spot sets up well for the Hornets. The 76ers are without their three best players, Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. Yet they still beat the Nets, 115-106, last night in an emotional game. Now the 76ers have to turn around and play the Hornets, who are desperate for a victory and have gotten healthier. Charlotte is rested and ready having last played on Sunday. The 76ers are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 road games and 1-10 ATS versus opponents with a below .400 winning percentage. | |||||||
11-22-22 | UL - Lafayette v. SMU -120 | Top | 76-72 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Kudos for Louisiana Lafayette getting off to a 4-0 start. The Ragin' Cajuns, though, have played an easy schedule and all of their games have been either home, or on a neutral court. I don't see the Ragin' Cajuns pulling a road upset against SMU. The Mustangs have won 40 of 46 games at Moody Coliseum during the past four seasons. They are 20-2 (91 percent) in home non-conference games during this stretch. SMU is getting scoring from Zhuric Phelps and rebounding from Efe Odigie, who leads the AAC in rebounding. The oddsmaker has yet to effectively price SMU. They've underestimated the Mustangs in this spot while overrating Lafayette. | |||||||
11-21-22 | Avalanche v. Stars -109 | 3-2 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
If it wasn't for an overtime road loss to the Lightning, the Stars would be on a four-game win streak. Dallas will have Jake Oettinger in net and catch the Avalanche fat and happy along with being severely short-handed while playing their third road game in five days. Despite missing numerous key players, the Avalanche are 2-0 on their three-game road trip getting past Carolina in overtime and shutting out Washington this past Saturday night. Those two foes outshot the Avalanche by a combined 36 shots. Colorado won't be able to get away with that against the Stars in Dallas. The two teams meet again on Saturday night in Denver. That figures to be a better spot for the Avalanche. | |||||||
11-21-22 | Knicks v. Thunder UNDER 230.5 | Top | 129-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
These teams went crazy when they met eight days ago. The Thunder won, 145-135. The Knicks hadn't allowed that many points in regulation since 2006. So you have to believe the Knicks will be much more intense defensively. They also likely will be slowing the ball down carrying a heavy fatigue factor playing their fifth road in seven days. This has taken a toll on the Knicks' scoring. New York's point production has gone down each of the last three games from 106 to 101 to 95 points. New York has allowed an average of 110.2 points in its last four games following that loss to Oklahoma City. The Knicks rank fifth in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. The Thunder enter this matchup having not played at home in 10 days and with their rotation shaken by injuries. | |||||||
11-21-22 | Islanders v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
I can see each of these teams reaching at least three goals. The Islanders have done this 10 times in their last 13 games. Toronto has scored three or more goals in seven of its last 10 games. The Maple Leafs have been getting away with committing too many penalties and are expected to have Eric Kallgren in net. He's the least effective of their three goalies. The Over is 10-3-1 the last 14 times these teams have played in Toronto. | |||||||
11-21-22 | Central Michigan v. High Point -4 | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
Central Michigan went 7-23 last season under its first-year coach Tony Barbee. The Chippewas aren't going to be very good this year either. A lone victory against Eastern Illinois is not impressive. High Point has one of the best scorers in the nation, Jaden House. He's averaging 22.8 points. High Point is the ninth-highest scoring team in the nation. The Panthers have too much firepower for Central Michigan. | |||||||
11-20-22 | Chiefs -5 v. Chargers | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 32 m | Show | |
The Chargers nearly upset the Chiefs back in Week 2. If it weren't for a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown, the Chargers just might have done it before losing, 27-24. Fast forward nine weeks later. The Chiefs are the best team in the AFC. The Chargers are mediocre, heavily weakened by key injuries especially on offense where their best offensive lineman and two top wide receivers have been out. This, along with a rib injury, has greatly reduced the effectiveness of Justin Herbert. He has just eight TD passes with five interceptions in his last seven games. Herbert doesn't have the weapons to keep up with sizzling Patrick Mahomes, who has emerged as the MVP frontrunner with 17 TD passes in his last six games. Kansas City is averaging an NFC-best 30 points per game. The Chargers' five victories have been against the Raiders, Texans, Browns, Broncos in overtime and Falcons. Those teams are a combined 13-32-1. The Chargers have little home field in the crowded LA sports market. They are 0-3 ATS during their past three home games with two of those defeats occurring to the Jaguars, 38-10, and 37-23 to the Seahawks. | |||||||
11-20-22 | Cowboys -120 v. Vikings | Top | 40-3 | Win | 100 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
The last time an 8-1 team was a home underdog was 1976. But that's the case here with the Vikings. Yet I say Dallas deserves to be favored. The spot sets up well for the Cowboys and the Vikings are not nearly the dominant team that their 8-1 record may indicate. The Vikings have a losing ATS mark, rank fourth-from-the-bottom in defensive total yards and have a banged-up vulnerable secondary. They also could be without their offensive left tackle, Christian Darrisaw. That could loom large as the Cowboys lead the NFL with 35 sacks. The NFC North is so weak the Vikings have a chance to clinch the division before December. So there is no urgency for the Vikings here unlike the Cowboys, who are off a blown two-touchdown fourth quarter lead against the Packers. The Vikings still are on Cloud 9 after their near-miracle 33-30 road victory against the Bills last Sunday in what had to be the most insane game of the season. Minnesota rallied from a 27-10 second-half deficit. Dallas beat the Vikings at Minnesota last season behind backup QB Cooper Rush. Dak Prescott is back now. The Vikings could be down two of their three best cornerbacks. The Cowboys have covered 10 of their last 13 road games going 5-1 ATS when favored in those matchups. It may seem surprising the Cowboys are road chalk against 8-1 Minnesota, but it's completely justified and the right side. | |||||||
11-20-22 | Bengals -3.5 v. Steelers | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
The Bengals and Joe Burrow were extremely rusty opening week when they met the Steelers. The Bengals lost the turnover battle, 5-0. Yet it took the end of overtime for the Steelers to pull off a 3-point victory and only because Evan McPherson missed an extra point near the end of regulation and a chip shot field goal in overtime because the Bengals had lost their long snapper to an injury during the game. Now the Bengals enter the rematch rested off their bye and in revenge mode. Burrow has gotten better pass protection since that Week 1 matchup. The result is Cincinnati is 5-2 in its last seven games. Ja'Marr Chase remains out. Burrow still, though, has enough weapons and the Bengals get back stud defensive lineman D.J. Reader, who has been out since Week 3 with a knee injury. He's the Bengals' top run defender. That's huge because rookie Kenny Pickett needs a ground game to set up his passing. Pickett is an overmatched rookie, who has a 2-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked way too many times. | |||||||
11-20-22 | Rams +3 v. Saints | 20-27 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
Here are three major reasons why I like the Rams here: 1. Coaching mismatch. Sean McVay versus Dennis Allen, who isn't qualified to be a head coach. 2. Quarterback mismatch. Matthew Stafford is miles ahead of Andy Dalton even without Cooper Kupp. 3. Aaron Donald getting to play Godzilla against a battered Saints offensive line likely to be without three starters. The Saints are 1-4 in their last five games. Their defense is down their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore, their top pass rusher, Cameron Jordan, and their most active linebacker, Pete Werner. The Rams have a battered offensive line, too. But McVay is sharp enough to effectively game plan having Stafford to take advantage of the Saints' key injuries. The Saints continue to trot out Dalton, who always has been mistake-prone but is even worse now that he's on the downside of his career. New Orleans has the worst turnover differential in the NFL at minus 12. | |||||||
11-20-22 | Jets v. Patriots UNDER 38.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
It's taken only two years, but Robert Saleh has built a strong Jets defense. New York is giving up just 15.8 points per game during its last six games. The Jets just held the powerful Bills to 17 points in their last game two weeks ago. They certainly are capable of holding the Patriots' pop-gun attack to 17 points or fewer, too. Defenses should dominate this matchup. Both teams are coached by defensive gurus and have had two weeks to prepare. Each team has an inexperienced, game-manager for a quarterback. The Jets sacked Mac Jones six times in the first meeting. They held New England to 3.8 yards a play and 288 total yards of offense. The Jets' defensive line holds a huge edge against the Patriots' mediocre-to-bad offensive line. Bill Belichick has been dominating inexperienced quarterbacks such as Zach Wilson for a long time. The Patriots picked off Wilson three times in their victory two games ago. The Patriots feature the NFL's sack leader, Matt Judon. He has 11 1/2 sacks. The weather could work against these offenses, too, with the forecast being for temperatures in the 30's with wind in the 15-17 mph range. That should ensure plenty of running plays. | |||||||
11-19-22 | UNLV v. Hawaii +11.5 | 25-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
UNLV isn't playing as well as it did in September and doesn't deserve to be this high of a road favorite against Hawaii. The Rebels have lost four games in a row. They are 1-4 on the road this season. Going to Hawaii is a unique trip because it involves a long flight and a two-hour time zone difference, not to mention a completely different atmosphere. Hawaii has covered five of its last six games. Only once during their last seven games have the Rainbow Warriors been beaten by more than seven points. They are stepping down in class, too, having faced Utah State, Fresno State and Wyoming in their past three games. | |||||||
11-19-22 | Fresno State v. Nevada OVER 54 | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
Fresno State is far more potent with star QB Jake Haener back. The Bulldogs have scored 32 points or more points in each of their last four games. They average nearly 39 points in games Haener has started and finished. Nevada's defense doesn't have nearly the talent to keep Haener and running back Jordan Mims in check. The Bulldogs could come close to covering this total themselves. But the Wolf Pack can chip in because they should be able to run on Fresno State, which ranks 95th in rush defense. This in turn will make it easier for the Wolf Pack to pass. | |||||||
11-19-22 | UAB +15 v. LSU | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
Alabama-Birmingham has the right ingredients to spring a major upset here. The Blazers have a good defense, a strong ground attack led by talented DeWayne McBride and catch LSU in a letdown and look-ahead spot. UAB gives up 21.3 points and ranks 29th in total defense with the 15th-best pass defense. Western Kentucky, which ranks fourth in passing yards, could manage just 128 yards through the air at home against the Blazers. Only five teams average more running yards per game than UAB. McBride averages nearly seven yards a carry. The Blazers can control the clock by successfully running the ball. LSU has already clinched its ticket to the SEC championship game against Georgia. | |||||||
11-19-22 | Ole Miss v. Arkansas +2.5 | Top | 27-42 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
Mississippi's hopes of winning the SEC West Division ended last week with a narrow loss to Alabama. Following this game, the Rebels meet in-state conference rival Mississippi State in their annual Egg Bowl game. So it's a difficult situational spot for the Rebels going on the road to face Arkansas. The 5-5 Razorbacks have all kinds of incentive. Not only do they have revenge for a wild 52-51 loss last year to Mississippi State, but they need a sixth win to be bowl eligible. Ole Miss has failed to cover during its last four visits to Arkansas. Arkansas held LSU to 284 total yards in a 13-10 home loss last week. Now the Razorbacks get back QB KJ Jefferson, who didn't play against LSU. Jefferson is back for this game giving the Razorbacks a dynamic dual threat quarterback weapon. Jefferson has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,981 yards with a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 425 yards with six TD's on the ground. | |||||||
11-19-22 | Connecticut v. Army -10 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 84 h 31 m | Show | |
Great job this season by Jim Mora getting Connecticut up to six wins, which makes the Huskies bowl eligible for the first time in seven years. The Huskies reached this point by upsetting previously 19th-ranked Liberty, 36-33, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs this past Saturday. Connecticut isn't nearly talented enough to cover spreads if it's not playing at a high level. The Huskies could have trouble doing that in an obvious letdown spot. But it's not just the letdown factor. The Huskies are going to have plenty of problems with Army's triple-option attack. The Black Knights are No. 2 in the country in rushing averaging nearly 300 yards on the ground per game. Connecticut is 73rd in run defense, but even its below average run defense statistics are skewed because of playing passing teams early in the season. The Huskies don't have the offense to cover for a bad defense. They have failed to break the 21-point barrier in seven of their 11 games. They rank 125th in total yards and 112th in scoring. Army blasted the Huskies, 52-21, last season. Sure the Huskies are much improved, but given the spot I don't see them staying within single digits. | |||||||
11-19-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Florida State -23.5 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Florida State is peaking at the right time. The Seminoles have won their last three games - against Syracuse, Miami and Georgia Tech - by an average score of 41-7. Don't expect Louisiana Lafayette to fare any better. This isn't the Ragin' Cajuns of past years unders Billy Napier, who is at Florida now. Lafayette is coming off a home win against Georgia Southern and finishes back in the Sun Belt Conference against Texas State. If the Ragin Cajuns beat 3-7 Texas State they would become bowl eligible. So this non-conference game doesn't mean much. Lafayette has suffered three road defeats. The last time they were on the road, the Ragin' Cajuns permitted 39 points to Southern Mississippi in a 15-point loss. That was the most points Southern Mississippi has scored all season against a Division I opponent. That does bode well for Lafayette against the Seminoles' high-caliber offense. | |||||||
11-18-22 | Knicks v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
Kudos to the Knicks in opening their five-game road trip with straight-up underdog victories against the Jazz on Tuesday and Nuggets on Wednesday. But I don't see them making it three in a row against the Warriors. Golden State has won five in a row at home. The Knicks are playing their third road game in four days and are in action for the fifth time in eight days. They caught a break in drawing the Nuggets when Denver was missing Nikola Jokic. Still, it was a highly satisfying win for the Knicks, their first in Denver since 2006. The Warriors aren't as fat and happy as the Knicks. Golden State is off a highly disappointing, 130-119, road loss to the Suns this past Wednesday. Warriors coach Steve Kerr fell on his sword taking the blame for the defeat. I see the Warriors playing with great intensity back at home in support of Kerr. Golden State is hitting 40 percent of its 3-point shots at home. That would rank No. 2 in the league if it were the Warriors' season average. The Knicks are down defensively from past seasons. They rank in the middle in 3-point defense. | |||||||
11-18-22 | Kings v. Canucks +103 | 1-4 | Win | 103 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
The Kings are one of the better road teams. But they haven't been able to win in Vancouver, losing the past five times there. The Canucks are 7-1 in their last eight overall games against the Kings. I see the Canucks continuing their dominance against the Kings. Vancouver received a much-needed victory hanging on for a 5-4 win against the Sabres this past Wednesday to close out a five-game road trip in which the Canucks had lost the first four games. Now the Canucks are back home. They should be up for this game with Bruce Boudreau coaching for his job. The Kings defeated the Oilers on the road, 3-1, this past Wednesday scoring an empty-net goal during the final minute to account for the final. The Kings had played five straight one-goal games prior to Wednesday. | |||||||
11-18-22 | Nevada -4.5 v. Texas-Arlington | 62-43 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
I find this line short as Nevada should beat Texas Arlington by double-digits. The Wolf Pack rank 19th in defensive field goal percentage. Texas Arlington lost its three best scorers from last year's squad, which lost 18 of 29 games. The Mavericks' scoring numbers are skewed because they played two non-Division I cupcakes. By most ratings, the Mavericks are worse than any team in the Mountain West Conference. So Nevada should have no problem here. | |||||||
11-17-22 | Utah State v. San Diego +7 | 91-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
This is too generous of a point spread so I'm getting involved with the home underdog. Both teams are 3-0. This is Utah State's first road game of the season and biggest test. Steve Lavin has raised the talent level at San Diego bringing in several transfers from the Pac-12. One of the Toreros' victories this season is against Florida Gulf Coast, a team that upset USC by 13 points on the road. San Diego ranks 31st in the country in 3-point shooting. The Toreros also are 12th in turnover percentage. That's an impressive combination of limiting turnovers while being highly accurate from beyond the arc. | |||||||
11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -2.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 17 m | Show |
The Titans have been winning ugly all season. It catches up to them here traveling on a short week with multiple defensive injuries facing a rejuvenated Packers team that saved their season by coming from two touchdowns behind in the fourth quarter to upset the Cowboys this past Sunday. This is a huge game for Green Bay. The Packers can't take a loss here with their next game against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Titans can be excused if they don't match the Packers' intensity. The Titans have a two-game lead in the very weak AFC South Division. The timing of this road Thursday game is very bad for Tennessee. The Titans are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL right now especially on defense. They were outplayed but managed to beat the bumbling Broncos this past Sunday despite missing five defensive starters, including star tackle Jeffery Simmons and big-play linebacker Bud Dupree. The Titans then suffered three more defensive injuries against Denver. The Packers blew out the Titans, 40-14, at home two seasons ago when the teams last met. | |||||||
11-17-22 | Canadiens v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
The Blue Jackets are a strong Over team at home. The Over has cashed 73 percent of the time during their last 61 home contests. I'm going to ride that trend here. Columbus is averaging 4.3 goals in its last three games. Montreal is a below average defensive team. The Canadians have been playing more up-tempo. They are averaging 3.5 goals in their past eight games. | |||||||
11-17-22 | Merrimack +6 v. Troy State | 54-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Troy may have a difficult time getting up for this game after upsetting Florida State on the road this past Monday as a double-digit 'dog. That victory has caused this line to be inflated. Merrimack is at Troy's level. Merrimack has a good player in Jordan Minor. Troy was picked to finish 10th in the Sun Belt Conference. This game is being played at a neutral site. Troy is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games. | |||||||
11-16-22 | Bulls +3.5 v. Pelicans | 110-124 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
The Bulls have rapid revenge for a 115-111 home loss to the Pelicans last Wednesday. The scheduling dynamics also favor Chicago. Chicago last played three days ago. So the Bulls should be rested and ready. That's not the case with the Pelicans, who are in action for the eighth time in 13 days and have zero rest after beating the Grizzlies last night. Both Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum logged big minutes in that game. It's a bonus for the Bulls if Zion Williamson has to miss the game. He's questionable with a foot injury. The Bulls are 7-3-1 ATS during their last 11 road games. | |||||||
11-16-22 | Texas Southern +31.5 v. Houston | Top | 48-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Yes, No. 3 ranked Houston is good, real good. But look at this spread. It's too inflated. Texas Southern, a Houston school, is going to be highly motivated not to get embarrassed by its next door neighbor. Texas Southern isn't good, but is capable of springing an upset. Just ask Arizona State. The Tigers upset them as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. The Tigers have been reliable in this role covering 13 of the last 18 times on the road against an above .500 opponent. The 3-0 Cougars have yet to be tested. They rolled past three easy foes and have a much tougher challenge up next next when they go to Oregon to play the Ducks. So their focus is likely to be at 100 percent. | |||||||
11-16-22 | Sabres +155 v. Senators | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a case of taking a nice plus price with a pair of struggling teams. Buffalo has lost six in a row. Before the losing streak, the Sabres had been showing good improvement. They rank sixth in the league in scoring. The Senators have been even worse losing eight of their last nine games. I don't see any improvement from the Senators. Things aren't going to be any easier for Ottawa during the next week or so because its top defenseman, Thomas Chabot, is out with a concussion. | |||||||
11-15-22 | Red Wings v. Ducks UNDER 6.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
I find this total too high. The Red Wings haven't scored more than 3 goals during any of their last 10 games. The Ducks rank 28th offensively. Anaheim is averaging two goals per game in its last three games, all of which have been at home. Both teams are on a three-game losing streak with a real chance to end their losing skids. So I'm expecting a tight-checking matchup. The Red Wings have a top-10 penalty kill unit. The Ducks rank second-to-last in power play scoring. | |||||||
11-15-22 | Grizzlies +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 102-113 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
This is just the third time all season the Grizzlies are underdogs when they are expected to have Ja Morant. He missed Memphis' last game, a 102-92 road loss to the Wizards this past Saturday. Memphis is 0-3 when Morant has been out. But with him, the Grizzlies are 9-2. The Grizzlies also are 15-7 ATS the past 22 times following a loss. The matchup has sort of a Zig/Zag feel to it as the Pelicans are off a 119-106 home win against the Rockets from Saturday. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS following a victory. The Grizzlies have defeated the Pelicans three of the last four times when Morant has started. | |||||||
11-15-22 | Bucknell v. St. Peter's -3.5 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
I have St. Peter's power-rated higher than this spread number. The Peacocks have been an excellent ATS team going 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 games for 78 percent. They have covered in their last six home games. Bucknell is 2-0 but has played easy competition. Bucknell is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation. The Bison have failed to cover nine of the last 12 times on the road when facing a foe with a winning home record. | |||||||
11-15-22 | Morehead State +19 v. West Virginia | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
West Virginia is off a very satisfying, 81-56, victory against Pittsburgh in its Backyard Brawl matchup. I don't see the Mountaineers being as intense as Morehead State for this matchup. The Eagles have been pointing to this rematch after West Virginia eliminated them, 84-67, in a first round NCAA Tournament game last year.
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11-14-22 | CS Sacramento v. Denver UNDER 133 | 73-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
Denver is going to get some culture shock meeting Sacramento State after facing bad defensive teams Idaho and non-Division I Colorado College. The Hornets play at a snail's pace and specialize in defense under new coach David Patrick. The Hornets don't have much offense so they use this style. They are averaging 57.5 points in their two games. I don't think the oddsmaker is fully factoring in Sacramento's slow tempo and commitment to defense while overrating Denver's offense. | |||||||
11-14-22 | CS Sacramento +3 v. Denver | 73-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Denver has had two easy games so far this season beating Idaho and Colorado College. The Pioneers struggled against Idaho failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. They face stronger competition here against Sacramento State. The Hornets are defensive-minded under new coach David Patrick. Their half-court ways and height should bother Denver, which has faced two easy defenses. Sacramento State is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games going back to last season. Denver has failed to cover in its last five lined home games. | |||||||
11-14-22 | Suns +2 v. Heat | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Miami has yet to get going at 6-7. The Heat are at least two levels down from the Suns. The key question is are the Heat good enough at home drawing the Suns likely without Chris Paul for a third straight game? I rather doubt it. Considering the situation - the Suns off an embarrassing loss to the Magic this past Friday - I will get involved backing underdog Phoenix. The Suns had a cold shooting night against Orlando while the Magic were hot making 52.4 percent of their shots from the floor. Phoenix is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times following a loss. They are 4-0 SU this season after losing in their previous game. Phoenix also has covered in its last four visits to Miami. Cameron Payne is one of the more underrated backup point guards in the league. The Heat have their own key injury. Tyler Herro, Miami's second-leading scorer, has missed the last three games due to a sprained ankle. Miami just got down hosting the lowly Hornets during its past two games. The last time the Heat faced a team of this high caliber was in their second game of the season when they hosted and lost to the Celtics. The Heat have failed to cover the past six times they've met an above .500 opponent. | |||||||
11-14-22 | Islanders -117 v. Senators | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show | |
I find this a cheap price to back the Islanders against the Senators, a team they have dominated. The Islanders are 9-1 during the last 10 games in this series. The Islanders are playing well winning eight of their last 10. That's not the case for the Senators, who are 1-7 in their last eight games. Ottawa has lost four in a row at home. The Islanders are 4-1 in their past five road contests. New York should have an edge in net as the projected goalies are Ilya Sorokin and Anton Forsberg for Ottawa. Sorokin has a 2.17 GAA this season. He stopped 56 of 60 shots in two games against the Senators last season. Forsberg has struggled during his last five games posting a 4.46 GAA. The Islanders rank fifth defensively, while the Senators are 26th. | |||||||
11-13-22 | Chargers v. 49ers -7 | 16-22 | Loss | -125 | 31 h 45 m | Show | |
The 49ers are at full strength on offense for the first time this season. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have to be Joe Montana with Kyle Shanahan calling plays and backed by elite weapons Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk. The Chargers rank 30th in scoring defense allowing 25.8 points a game. Fresh off their bye, the 49ers also are healthier on defense, too. This doesn't bode well for the Chargers, who remain extremely banged-up offensively. Justin Herbert has become just a glorified game manager minus his star left tackle and without his two best wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Herbert has not completed a pass longer than 20 yards during his last three games. He's also gone four consecutive games without reaching the 300-yard passing mark. The Chargers haven't defeated a good team yet. Their victories have been against the Raiders, Texans, Browns, Broncos in overtime and Falcons with three of those wins | |||||||
11-13-22 | Lindenwood +28.5 v. Missouri | 53-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Missouri didn't cover against Penn in its last game this past Friday, winning 92-85 as a 12 1/2-point home favorite. I had Penn in that game with part of my handicap being the Tigers are breaking in a new roster and coach so it's going to take time for them to jell. I'm going to double down and fade the Tigers again believing this point spread is too high. Missouri is 2-0, but giving up 88 points a game. Both of its previous opponents - Penn and Southern Indiana - shot 50 percent from 3-point range. Lindenwood made 12 of 26 3-point shots in its last game. | |||||||
11-13-22 | Colts v. Raiders -4.5 | 25-20 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
The Raiders have been on the road in their last two games and those two losses - getting shut out by the Saints and blowing a 17-0 lead to the Jaguars - have put enormous heat on Josh McDaniels and the entire Las Vegas franchise. But remember the last time the Raiders were home, they rolled past the Texans, 38-30. Houston is the worst team in the AFC. The Colts are at Houston Texans' level now. So against the worst at home, the Raiders should be trusted. The Raiders actually were a playoff team last season. They've blown three 17-point advantages. If they would have held on in those games their record would be 5-3 and we would be talking about a much higher point spread here. Nearly all of this handicap, however, is a fade on the Colts. You have to wonder if Colts owner Jim Irsay has gone on tilt, or made the decision to tank. Jeff Saturday, who has never been a coach on any level, inherits an offense that ranks last in scoring at 14.7, 30th in yards per play and 30th in rushing. The Colts have committed a league-high 17 turnovers. Bill Walsh would have trouble coaxing points out of this Colts offense, which has a stiff at quarterback in Sam Ehlinger, behind an offensive line that has deeply regressed. Jonathan Taylor is hobbled by an ankle injury. The play-calling falls upon Parks Frazier, who like Saturday, is totally inexperienced in this capacity. The Raiders aren't good defensively. They don't have to be against this foe. Davante Adams had a big first half last week. McDaniels knows enough offense to realize the Raiders just need to keep feeding Adams and run Josh Jacobs to take care of the Colts, who are without their best big-play defender, injured Shaquile Leonard. | |||||||
11-13-22 | Vikings v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
The Bills don't need Josh Allen to beat the Vikings, who are a bogus 7-1. Only one of Minnesota's wins has been against a winning team with six of its victories occurring in one-score games. The Vikings have a losing ATS mark. The one time the Vikings had a step-up game, they lost 24-7 to the Eagles. Already the Vikings have built up an insurmountable five-game lead in the loss column in their NFC North Division. I doubt the Vikings get as motivated for this game as the Bills will at home off a terrible loss to the Jets. I want Buffalo in this spot and I'm fine with Case Keenum, who is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league and is surrounded by weapons in the Bills' high octane offensive attack. Keenum is experienced and proficient in Buffalo's spread type offense. I don't see the Bills, with their aggressive nature, dialing things back. Not only is the spot bad for the Vikings catching the Bills off a division loss, but the setting isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings are a dome team traveling into Buffalo in mid-November with the forecast calling for possible snow showers and wind in the 10-20 mph range. | |||||||
11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants OVER 40.5 | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
A total of less than 41 in today's NFL, which is unfairly skewed toward offense and scoring, is a very low bar. Both the Texans and Giants have excellent running backs and each defense has trouble stopping the run. The Texans have the worst run defense in the NFL by far yielding more than 180 yards a game on the ground. They have to deal with Saquon Barkley, who has regained his stature as a top-five running back and will have fresh legs following New York's bye last week. If I could pick one player to have in fantasy football this week at running back it would be Barkley. The Giants also are getting healthier at wide receiver. If you discount the Texans holding the Jaguars to six points, Houston would be giving up an average of 28.2 points in their last five games. The Texans should contribute to this total going Over riding Dameon Pierce, who is averaging 23.3 carries and 110 yards rushing during his last six games. The Giants are permitting 5.4 yards per carry, ranking 25th in run defense. There's the possibility the Texans get back Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins this week. They are the Texans' top two wide receivers. | |||||||
11-13-22 | Broncos +3 v. Titans | 10-17 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm taking the Broncos even anticipating Ryan Tannehill will be back for the Titans. It's a huge bonus if Malik Willis has to start a third straight game. Willis is averaging 67.5 yards passing on 11 completions in his two games mainly throwing dump-off passes. He can't connect with anyone downfield. The Titans haven't been very good passing with Tannehill either. Tennessee hasn't reached 260 yards of total offense in five of its eight games. The Titans are totally dependent on Derrick Henry. This isn't lost on the Broncos, who even without traded Bradley Chubb have a well above average defense giving up 16.5 points a game, which is No. 2 in the NFL in scoring defense. The Broncos have finally shown a little life offensively. Denver was on a bye last week giving Russell Wilson additional time to heal and get more in sync with his new team. While the Broncos were resting, the Titans took the Chiefs to overtime last Sunday night. Tennessee's defense was on the field for 91 plays in that loss. The Titans are going to be missing their best defensive front-seven player, Jeffery Simmons, along with linebackers Bud Dupree and Zach Cunningham. Tennessee already is sailing toward the AFC South Division title. The Titans have no competition in their weak division. This game means far more to the Broncos. So Denver should have its intensity while the Titans have a fatigue factor working against them. | |||||||
11-12-22 | TCU +7.5 v. Texas | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
Texas Christian is ranked fourth in the country in the latest The Associated Press Top 25 poll. Texas is ranked 18th. Yet the Longhorns are solid favorites. Usually it's the oddsmaker who has the correct power rankings, not the Top 25 voters. This time, though, it's the Top 25 poll that is accurate about these teams. TCU is the better team. The Horned Frogs are 9-0, including 6-0 in the Big 12. They just defeated Texas Tech by 10 points. Texas is 6-3 with two of its defeats coming to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, two teams that TCU defeated. Texas lacks TCU's consistency and polish. The Horned Frogs have already beaten four ranked opponents. Only Tennessee has knocked off more with five. The Horned Frogs have dominated the Longhorns, too, going 7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS against them since becoming a Big 12 member 10 years ago. They are 4-1 versus the Longhorns in Austin. | |||||||
11-12-22 | Appalachian State v. Marshall UNDER 48 | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
No team has played more Unders this season than Marshall. The Thundering Herd have gone Under in eight of their nine games, including the last six. Marshall gives up 15.6 points, ranks No. 3 in run defense and ninth in total defense. The Thundering Herd, though, has a limited passing attack ranking 110th. So they run the ball a lot, which eats clock. Appalachian State also has a good defense ranking 27th in fewest yards allowed per game and are run-oriented on offense. The Under has cashed in four of the Mountaineers' last five games. | |||||||
11-12-22 | Louisville +7 v. Clemson | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
Louisville hung in against Clemson last season losing, 30-24. The Cardinals are better this season and catch Clemson off a confidence-draining 35-14 loss to Notre Dame. That was the Tigers' worst loss to an unranked foe in 11 years and cost them six spots in the College Football Playoff rankings. That loss occurred at Notre Dame. But the Tigers are just 3-9 ATS in their last dozen home games. Meanwhile, Louisville is playing its finest ball putting together a four-game win streak with two of those victories coming against ranked Wake Forest and James Madison, who was ranked earlier in the season. The Cardinals are surrendering just 14.5 points during their last four games. Talented dual threat QB Malik Cunningham has accounted for 19 touchdowns while throwing only four interceptions. | |||||||
11-12-22 | Temple v. Houston OVER 56 | 36-43 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
Houston scored 63 points against SMU last week - and still lost by 14. There's only one way to look at Houston games and it's certainly not Under. The Over has cashed in eight of the Cougars' nine games this season. The Cougars average 36.8 points and give up an average of 36.2 points. Temple isn't going to be able to slow down Clayton Tune and the rest of Houston's high-caliber attack. The Owls should be able to kick in their fair share of points. Their offense came alive in a 54-28 victory against South Florida last week. Edward Saydee rushed for 265 yards and QB E.J. Warner passed for 344 yards for Temple. | |||||||
11-12-22 | Vanderbilt v. Kentucky UNDER 49.5 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 93 h 46 m | Show | |
It's not a fluke that Kentucky has gone Under in eight of its nine games this season. The Wildcats are run-oriented, go at the slowest pace of any team in the country and have a tremendous defense that ranks 11th in fewest yards allowed and 21st in scoring defense holding opponents to 19.6 points a game. Vanderbilt quarterback AJ Swann is out with a lower body injury. He's the Commodores' best passing quarterback. Vanderbilt is averaging only 12.5 points during its past five games. The Commodores do not have a good defense. However, their best feature is stopping the run. Kentucky figures to stay on the ground a lot especially given the projected weather conditions, which are calling for wind in the 15-22 mph range. | |||||||
11-11-22 | Cavs v. Warriors UNDER 232.5 | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
By the numbers the oddsmaker has set a correct total here. Early marketplace activity has pushed the total even higher. Golden State is the third-highest scoring team in the league and second-worst defensive team. The Warriors just allowed an average of 121.6 points on their recently completed 0-5 road trip. Led by Donovan Mitchell and his 31.9 scoring average, the Cavaliers are a top-seven scoring team. But I see this spot being much more defensive-oriented than perceived. This is the conclusion of the Cavaliers' five-game road trip. They've lost the last two games to the Kings and Lakers allowing an average of 123.5 in those contests. Cleveland ranks seventh defensively holding opponents to 107.4 points a game. The Cavaliers are the No. 1 defensive rebounding team in the league. Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff was especially appalled by his team's lack of defense in the 127-120 Wednesday loss to Sacramento. This is what he said following that game, ''...If we want to be a good basketball team, we need to remember who we are and we need to play Cavaliers basketball. ...'' Cavaliers basketball is defense and limiting opponents to one shot. The Warriors are overdue to start cleaning up their defense. They were the third-stingiest team in the league to score against last season holding opponents to 105.4 points. This is just Golden State's third home game since Oct. 23. The Warriors gave up 110 to the Heat and 113 to the Kings during their previous two home games. Not great, but much better than they've been allowing on the road. | |||||||
11-11-22 | Sharks v. Stars OVER 6 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Both teams are on Over streaks. San Jose is 6-0-1 to the Over in its last seven games. The Over is 4-0-1 in the Stars' last five games. The Sharks have picked up their scoring pace, scoring 3 or more goals in each of their last six games. However, the Sharks are giving up 4.4 goals per game during their last seven games. The Stars can take advantage of San Jose's leaky defense being very productive this season. Dallas is fifth in the NHL in scoring at 3.6 goals. The Stars have scored 5 or more goals in three of their last four games. The Over has cashed 15 of the last 21 times the teams have met in Dallas. | |||||||
11-11-22 | Mississippi State v. Akron +6.5 | 73-54 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
I don't think Akron and the MAC are getting enough respect here. The Zips reached the NCAA Tournament last season. They are projected to be a top-three team in the MAC. Going back to last season, the Zips have covered eight of their last 10 games. They opened with an 81-80 overtime victory against South Dakota State. Mississippi State rolled past outmanned Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in its opener Monday. The Bulldogs have a new coach, Chris Jans, and are in transition. "We've got a long way to go,'' Jans said after the game. | |||||||
11-11-22 | West Virginia -140 v. Pittsburgh | 81-56 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
West Virginia beat Pittsburgh, 74-59, as a 17-point home favorite last season. It was the fifth straight time the Mountaineers have defeated the Panthers in the Backyard Brawl series. The average margin of victory during this time frame is 13.4 points. Now the opening spread was West Virginia minus only two. Home court doesn't make up a 15-point difference. The oddsmaker is expecting Pittsburgh to do much better this time. I see West Virginia as a much stronger favorite than this. The Mountaineers have upgraded their athleticism and frontcourt with the addition of 6-foot-10 Mohamed Wague. | |||||||
11-10-22 | Falcons -2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 15-25 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the NFC. So it's a no-brainer for me to lay less than a field goal against them especially when the Panthers are going to start P.J. Walker at quarterback. Walker's 317-yard passing performance against the Falcons two weeks ago was an outlier. Walker's ability is far closer to the 3-of-10 passing for nine yards and two interceptions he had against the Bengals last Sunday. The Falcons rank last in pass defense. Walker won't be able to exploit that. I'm not a fan of Baker Mayfield. But at least he's a legitimate NFL starting quarterback, albeit a lower class one. Walker isn't. Even a fresh Sam Darnold would be a better choice than Walker in attacking such a vulnerable secondary. The Falcons aren't very good either. But they do run the ball well with Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley and Marcus Mariota, who is more of a rushing threat than a passer. The Bengals gashed the Panthers on the ground for 241 yards, averaging 6.2 yards on 39 runs. If you can't stop the run, you're going to have trouble with Atlanta. Not only did the Panthers trade their best offensive chip, Christian McCaffrey, but they have injuries to three of their key defenders: pass rushing star Brian Burns, underrated lineman Derrick Brown and safety Jeremy Chinn. I'm expecting Burns and Brown to play - it's a bonus if they don't - but the Panthers still are going to have problems stopping the Falcons' ground game. Carolina has surrendered 79 points during the last two weeks. The fallout in Carolina from its one-sided loss to Cincinnati is more coaching turnover. Interim coach Steve Wilks fired two defensive coaches, Paul Pasqualoni and Evan Cooper. The Panthers are a rudderless team right now. They don't have the quarterbacking, nor run defense, to beat the Falcons even at home on a Thursday night. | |||||||
11-10-22 | Hornets +11 v. Heat | 112-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
This isn't going to be an easy sell with the 3-9 short-handed Hornets, losers of six in a row, and missing LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. But hear me out. Miami is 4-7. The Heat haven't played a good game in two weeks. They've won only one game by more than seven points all season. Miami is 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in its last six games with losses during this span to the Kings, slow-starting Warriors, Pacers and Blazers. The Heat might not have Tyler Herro, he's second on the team in points and rebounds. He's day-to-day with an ankle injury. Terry Rozier has returned to Charlotte's lineup, so at least he's back. Recent pickup Dennis Smith Jr. has been doing well. The Hornets are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 road games. Miami has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 home games. The teams meet again in Miami on Saturday. So this could be a feeling out process between two struggling teams. The Heat don't deserve to be this high of a favorite. | |||||||
11-10-22 | Senators v. Devils OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
Both of these teams have played more Overs than Unders this season. So I feel confident going Over in this matchup. The Senators are 12th in scoring. They have scored 3 or more goals in eight of their last 10 games. The Devils are a hot team with seven wins in a row. Their offense has produced 3 or more goals in seven of the last eight games. New Jersey should be good for another high-scoring night facing an Ottawa defense that ranks 27th and has permitted 4 or more goals in five of the last six games. | |||||||
11-10-22 | Western Carolina +21.5 v. Maryland | 51-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Now that some teams have played a game, you can start to develop a feel for teams. Maryland opened with a 71-49 home win against Niagara on Monday. Western Carolina also opened its season on Monday covering as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs in a 68-55 loss to Georgia. Despite their 22-point victory, the Terrapins are not in rhythm yet with a new coach, Kevin Willard, and a roster that is stacked with transfers. This is what Willard was quoted as saying after Maryland's victory against Niagara: ''It has been a crazy seven months to put together this roster and get these guys playing. We're not close to being good yet. ...'' Western Carolina was encouraged by its showing against Georgia. The Catamounts are excited to be facing another major conference team in Maryland. They want to prove something. The Terrapins won't be taking this early non-conference matchup as serious. Willard's agenda against this overmatched opponent isn't to run up a score, but get a feel for his entire roster and figure out his rotation. | |||||||
11-09-22 | Bucks -6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 136-132 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
I anticipated Giannis Antetokounmpo to play. He was listed as probable. However, word has come that he won't play because his knee still is too sore. So I have to lower my recommendation. The Bucks have the best record in the NBA at 9-1 SU (8-2 ATS), but are coming off their first loss, 117-98, to the Hawks on the road this past Monday. So the Bucks should be highly motivated despite playing a lottery-caliber opponent and without Giannis. Milwaukee has covered 10 of its last 14 road games going back to last season. The Thunder have lost and failed to cover in their last three games, losing every game by at least nine points. One of these defeats during this span occurred to the Bucks, 108-94, at Milwaukee this past Saturday. The Bucks led by 24 points in the second half. Milwaukee shouldn't let up this time around. The Bucks won that game without Antetokounmpo. Oklahoma City is heavily reliant on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for its scoring. He is averaging 30.8 points. No other Oklahoma City player even averages more than 12 points. The Bucks held Gilgeous-Alexander to a season-low 18 points. The Bucks have the NBA' top defensive rating at 101.9. | |||||||
11-09-22 | Knicks v. Nets -135 | 85-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
Having Kyrie Irving suspended has aroused the underachieving Nets. Brooklyn is 2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS in the three games Irving has missed during his suspension. The Nets' lone defeat during this time frame came on the road to the Mavericks by two points. The Nets made a gallant comeback in that game, falling just short. It's clear the Nets are playing with more urgency and discipline with Irving not on the court. This is proven in their defensive efforts. After surrendering an average of 120.3 points in their first seven games, the Nets have held their last four foes to an average of 96 points. The Knicks are 2-4 during their last six games with their losses occurring to the Bucks by 11, Cavaliers by 13, Hawks by 13 and Celtics by 15. Their record would be 2-5 in their last seven games, but they managed to beat the shorthanded Hornets in overtime failing to cover as a 7 1/2-point home favorite. The Knicks' other two wins during this seven-game span were against the 76ers by two points in a game in which Philadelphia didn't have Joel Embiid and versus the Timberwolves, who have a losing record. The Nets have defeated the Knicks during the past seven meetings. | |||||||
11-09-22 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 223.5 | 85-112 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
The makeup of the Nets has changed with Kyrie Irving suspended. Irving has missed the past three games. During this time, the Nets have given up an average of just 92 points a game. They are playing with more discipline and urgency minus Irving. Of course Irving's absence hurts the Nets' offense. Brooklyn has failed to break the 100-point barrier in three of its last four games. The Knicks have the second-best defensive field goal percentage in the league. The Knicks just held the Timberwolves to 107 points in their last game. That's six points under Minnesota's scoring average. This is more than just a division rivalry from these two neighbors. So there should be a lot of defensive intensity. | |||||||
11-09-22 | Canucks v. Canadiens OVER 6.5 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Vancouver has gone Over the total in its last four games. The Canucks are fifth in scoring, but 30th defensively. So it's easy to see why they've been an Over team. The Canucks are averaging 4.8 goals in their past six games. Montreal has a below average defense and is expected to start backup goalie Sam Montembeault. He's given up an average of 4.5 goals during his two starts this season. The Canadiens have permitted three or more goals in four of their last five games. Montreal is averaging 3.4 goals in its last five games. The Canucks are expected to go with their starting goalie, Thatcher Demko. He hasn't played well, though, this season with a 3.90 goals-against-average. The Over is 8-3-1 during the past dozen meetings in this series. | |||||||
11-09-22 | Davidson v. Wright State +4.5 | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
I have Wright State as a home favorite in my power ratings. So I'm happy to get involved in this matchup taking this many points. Davidson beat Guilford, 87-64, in its season opener. But that's not impressive. The Wildcats reached the NCAA Tournament last season, but aren't that good on the road. Wright State came on strong last season to also reach the NCAA Tournament by winning the Horizon League Tournament. The oddsmaker sees that the Raiders lost their two top scorers from last season, but they still have several excellent players and added several good recruits along with transfer guard Amari Davis, who averaged 17.2 points a game for Wisconsin-Green Bay two seasons ago. I envision Wright State being better than last season, something the oddsmaker doesn't see right now judging by this line. | |||||||
11-09-22 | American v. Marist -125 | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Admittedly this is anything but a marquee matchup. But I don't think it's too much to ask Marist to defeat American at home in the season-opener for both teams. Marist is a middle-of-the-road MAAC team. The Red Foxes were 14-16 last season. But they are still better than American, which went 10-22 last season and finished last in the Patriot League. | |||||||
11-09-22 | Buffalo +2.5 v. Central Michigan | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
After opening with three straight losses, Buffalo is very much in the bowl picture after going 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games. The Bulls have produced 34 or more points in three of their last four games. Buffalo QB Cole Snyder should have a big game against a Central Michigan secondary that ranks 79th in pass defense. The Chippewas give up 29 points per game, which ranks 87th. Central Michigan has failed to score more than 18 points in four of its last six games. The Chippewas are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. The Bulls are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games. | |||||||
11-08-22 | Wild v. Kings OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Two fully rested above average offenses square off here against bottom tier defenses. Minnesota has scored three or more goals in nine of its 11 games. However, the Wild rank 25th defensively allowing 3.6 goals a game. Los Angeles has scored four goals in each of its last three home games. The Kings rank 27th defensively, permitting 3.8 goals per game. Both teams should have plenty of energy since they have been idle since Thursday. Free Tuesday Play Coyotes at Sabres Under 6 1/2 plus $1.05 The Under has cashed the last four times these teams have played in Buffalo. Only once in the last seven overall meetings between these teams has the total gone Over. I see that trend continuing here. The Coyotes average 2.8 goals a game. They are last in shots. Arizona hasn't scored more than three goals in nine of its 11 games. The Sabres should be committed to a strong defensive effort after blowing a late lead in a 5-3 road loss to the Lightning this past Saturday. That was Buffalo's second consecutive defeat. The Sabres' intensity and concentration should be up. The Sabres haven't allowed more than three goals during each of their past four home games. This is the second of 14 straight road games for the Coyotes. They have games Thursday, Friday and Saturday. So there is no reason for them to push pace. | |||||||
11-08-22 | Georgia Southern v. San Jose State -3 | 48-63 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Pro prospect Omari Moore is back for San Jose State. That makes the Spartans respectable. The combination of Moore and the Spartans' size advantage along with home-court should enable San Jose State to cover this number. Georgia Southern has regressed under third-year coach Brian Burg. The Eagles have won just 13 games during each of the last two seasons. They were 5-11 in the Sun Belt Conference last season. San Jose State had a dismal conference record, too, last season. But the Spartans play in the stronger Mountain West Conference. They will be better this season. | |||||||
11-08-22 | Ball State v. Toledo -11 | 21-28 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by Ball State going 4-1 in its last five games. The Cardinals have faced not only weak competition during this span, but also caught opponents missing key injured players. When stepping up, the Cardinals have failed to cover the last five times against above .500 opponents. Toledo is 6-3 and several steps up in class for Ball State. The Rockets have tremendous skill position talent. They are averaging 35.9 points, which is a top-25 figure. That average goes up to 45.5 points per game in four home matchups. Ball State doesn't have the offense to keep pace ranking 90th in scoring at 24.8 points per game. The Cardinals are below average on defense, too. | |||||||
11-07-22 | Ravens v. Saints +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
The buy sign is on for the Monday night home underdog Saints following their best game of the season, a 24-0 home win against the Raiders last Sunday. The Saints held the sometimes potent Raiders to 183 yards of offense. A key for the Saints is an improved ground attack spearheaded by Alvin Kamara that is averaging 171 yards rushing in their last four games. The Ravens have been favored in three of their last four games and failed to cover each of those times. Baltimore shored up its defense trading for Roquan Smith. However, the Ravens are down their two best receivers with tight end Mark Andrews and wideout Rashod Bateman both out. It' not likely Gus Edwards is going to play either. | |||||||
11-07-22 | Lehigh +19.5 v. Syracuse | 72-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
Jim Boeheim remains the coach, but Syracuse isn't the power of years past. The Orange won 13 games last season, same as Lehigh. Lehigh is a steady team that has won double-digit games in 19 of the last 20 seasons. The Mountain Hawks return their best player, Evan Taylor. Syracuse lost nine players from last season, including three of its top four scorers. The Orange weren't that good last season and they have some adjustments to make. This is too many points for them to lay against a respectable Patriot League team. | |||||||
11-07-22 | Dartmouth v. Fordham -6 | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
I look at Fordham as a potential sleeper team in the Atlantic 10 now that things have settled down for the Rams. The Rams play good defense and recruited talented freshmen. I find the Rams undervalued hosting Ivy League opponent Dartmouth. The Big Green went just 4-11 on the road last season while the Rams were 10-4 at home last season. Sports Illustrated ranks Fordham 190th in the country and Dartmouth 193 spots lower than the Rams. Dartmouth was picked seventh out of the eight Ivy League teams in the preseason Ivy League poll. | |||||||
11-07-22 | Kent State +1.5 v. Northern Kentucky | 79-57 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
I am very high on Kent State as a very strong mid-major and the best team in the Mid-American Conference. I don't think the Golden Flashes should be a 'dog to Northern Kentucky. The Golden Flashes won 14 in a row down the stretch last season before falling to Akron in the MAC Tournament title game. Kent State returns 10 players from last season, including MAC Player of the Year Sincere Carry and Malique Jacobs, one of the top defensive players in the conference. | |||||||
11-06-22 | Titans v. Chiefs -12 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm going to lay this dead number anticipating Ryan Tannehill will be back this week. Even if Tannehill is under center, I don't see the Titans staying within two touchdowns of the Chiefs. It's a huge bonus if Malik Willis has to start a second straight game because he's nowhere near being ready as an NFL starting quarterback. The Titans were able to get away with Willis last week because they could totally rely on Derrick Henry against the Texans, who have the worst run defense by far in the NFL. Kansas City has the No. 3 rush defense in the NFL. The Chiefs will be loading the box to stop Henry. The Chiefs have had two weeks to prepare having been idle last week. No coach is better off a bye than Andy Reid, who is 19-3 during the regular season after being off the week before. The Chiefs won't lack incentive. The Titans embarrassed them, 27-3, in Tennessee last year. The Titans don't have the makeup to play from behind because their wide receiving group is so weak. | |||||||
11-06-22 | Panthers v. Bengals -7 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 91 h 32 m | Show |
This is a buy low opportunity on the Bengals, who looked terrible this past Monday night scoring just 13 points against the Browns and losing by 19 points. The Bengals don't have Ja'Marr Chase. The Panthers don't have Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. They also don't have a lot of incentive either with a 2-6 record and in rebuild mode. Cincinnati buried the Falcons, 35-17, two weeks ago. The Panthers lost to the Falcons this past Sunday ending any crazy dream for them of competing in their bogus NFC South Division. Joe Burrow doesn't need Chase to bury the Panthers. Burrow has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, leads the NFL in passing yards and has 17 TD passes. He still has three high quality receiving targets in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst. Carolina's pop gun attack operated by P.J. Walker isn't going to be able to keep up. The Bengals want to redeem themselves after Monday's embarrassment. This is a kill spot for them at home. The line is reasonable enough to get involved. | |||||||
11-06-22 | Packers -3.5 v. Lions | 9-15 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 41 m | Show | |
The Packers aren't finished yet. Lose here to the 1-6 Lions, though, and they are done. I don't see it happening. Aaron Rodgers gets to face the worst defense in the league. The Lions give up the most points and yards per game. Green Bay's defense is capable of playing far better, especially against the run. The Lions hoisted up the white flag when they dealt away tight end T.J. Hockenson. Their best skill position player, D'Andre Swift, isn't physically right slowed by an ankle injury. Dan Campbell is a likely lame duck coach. He's compounded his team's serious defensive woes with terrible on-field coaching decisions. He could be the worst in-game coach in the NFC. | |||||||
11-06-22 | Raiders -120 v. Jaguars | 20-27 | Loss | -120 | 89 h 10 m | Show | |
We know the Jaguars are terrible again this season, losers of five in a row. But are the Raiders as bad as their 2-5 record? Their performance in a 24-0 road loss to the Saints this past Sunday might have been the worst of any team all season. It's called into question the merits of Josh McDaniels' coaching ability and Derek Carr being anything better than just mediocre. Prior to that shutout loss to New Orleans, the Raiders had outscored their opponents by 13 points. Their losses were by five points to the Chargers, six points to the Cardinals in overtime, two points to the 5-2 Titans and one point to the 5-2 Chiefs. Las Vegas was a playoff team last season. If the Raiders win here, they have a chance to reach .500 as their next two games are against the Colts and Broncos. Carr has been disappointing for much of the season. But Trevor Lawrence has yet to turn the corner. The Jaguars' lone decent skill position player is emerging Travis Eitenne. The Raiders afford Carr more weapons than Jacksonville with Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs - the NFL's fourth-leading rusher - Hunter Renfroe and tight end Darren Waller, who could play for the first time in several weeks. I rank Daniel Carlson has the second-best kicker in the league behind only Justin Tucker. If you discount their last five games against the Colts, the Jaguars would be 4-24 ATS in their last 28 games. There's also a situational element to this game. The Raiders stayed in the South following their defeat to New Orleans. That was a smart move. The Jaguars had to come back from London following a disappointing loss to the Broncos. So they have to deal with jet lag. | |||||||
11-06-22 | Chargers v. Falcons UNDER 49.5 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 39 h 37 m | Show | |
The perception is the Chargers are an explosive team. They were at the start of the season before injuries struck. Now they aren't. Take away star pass protector left tackle Rashawn Slater, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and Justin Herbert is left playing dump off to Austin Ekeler. Herbert also is banged-up with a painful rib injury. He's thrown only six touchdown passes in his last five games. The Falcons have cornerback injuries. But Herbert is just left with inexperienced wideouts and tight end Gerald Everett. So he's not going to be able to exploit that as much as the oddsmaker anticipates with this high of a total. Atlanta is being looked upon as a high scoring team off a 37-point game against the Panthers. The Falcons, however, were averaging 20.7 points during their previous four games. They rank 29th in passing and 25th in total yards. The Falcons are not about super-talented Kyle Pitts and Drake London. Instead they feature mundane reserve running backs Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley in Arthur Smith's caveman run-oriented, eat-up-clock slow moving offense. Marcus Mariota has been in the NFL for eight years. He's still more feared as a runner than passer. This one is priced wrong so I'm going Under. | |||||||
11-05-22 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern +4 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 6 m | Show | |
South Alabama has played one of the 10 easiest schedules in the country. That's going to catch up to the Jaguars in this matchup. I wasn't a fan of Clay Helton when he was at USC. But he's done a fine job with Georgia Southern. The Eagles are 5-3 with all three of their losses coming on the road. They are 3-0 SU and ATS at home. One of those Georgia Southern victories was 45-38 against James Madison as a 13-point 'dog. The Eagles produced nearly 600 yards of total offense in that game. Georgia Southern is averaging 36.9 points and ranks 11th in total yards. South Alabama has impressive defensive numbers. But those are skewed because of numerous weak offenses the Jaguars have faced. Besides home field, the Eagles also have another scheduling factor in their favor - they were idle last week. Georgia Southern has a strong history against the Jaguars winning and covering the last four times it hosted them. The Eagles have won seven of their past eight games against the Jaguars. | |||||||
11-05-22 | Kentucky v. Missouri UNDER 42.5 | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 92 h 40 m | Show | |
Two strong defenses, slow tempo and possible bad weather. Add this up and you have the recipe for an Under. Kentucky gives up 19.9 points a game. Missouri permits just 21.5 points per game. Both teams rank in the top 20 in fewest yards allowed per game. The Under has covered in 21 of the Wildcats' last 29 road games. Missouri has been a huge money-maker for Under bettors going below the total in 10 of its last 11 games. The last five in this series played in Missouri have gone Under, too. There also could be weather issues with heavy wind and a chance of rain. | |||||||
11-05-22 | Texas Tech v. TCU -9.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 25 m | Show |
TCU is the third-highest scoring team in the nation and fourth in total yards. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every one of their games going 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. Texas Tech is 89th in scoring defense giving up 29.3 points a game. I don't see the Red Raiders, who have been horrible on the road, staying within single digits of the unbeaten Horned Frogs. Texas Tech just got slaughtered, 45-17, by Baylor last week and that was at home. The Red Raiders have played three road games - North Carolina State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They lost all three of those contests by 10 or more points. Max Duggan is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation accounting for 26 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Texas Tech couldn't stop Baylor, which averages nearly a touchdown less per game than TCU. I don't see the Red Raiders slowing down Duggan and a TCU attack that averages 48.7 points a game at home. | |||||||
11-05-22 | Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 49.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Weather is going to impact the amount of scoring in this game. Heavy winds, even gusting, are in the forecast. That could force a lot more running plays something the Badgers wouldn't mind. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is Wisconsin's interim head coach after Paul Chryst was fired earlier this season. Maryland's outstanding quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, missed last week's game against Northwestern. He's dealing with a knee injury. Tagovailoa is likely to start, but he could be gimpy and the blowing winds aren't suited to his downfield throwing. | |||||||
11-05-22 | Air Force v. Army UNDER 40.5 | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a low total, but not low enough when the matchup is Army versus Air Force in the Commanders' Classic. The Black Knights defeated Air Force, 21-14, last year - and that was one of the higher-scoring matchups. Here are the combined points in this matchup for the last five years: 35 (last year), 17 (2020), 30 (2019), 31 (2018) and 21 (2017). The Under, in fact, has cashed in 10 of the last 11 games in the series. This is what happens in a huge rivalry game between two completely run-oriented teams. Air Force has a tremendous defense this year, too. The Falcons rank ninth in total defense and ninth in scoring defense allowing 16.8 points a game. The Under has won 15 of the last 20 times Air Force has played a non-conference opponent. The game is being played at a neutral site, too, in Arlington, Texas. | |||||||
11-04-22 | Cavs v. Pistons +6.5 | 112-88 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Almost always disrespected, the Pistons have been a strong money-maker covering 23 of their last 34 games going back to last season for 68 percent. This spot sets up well for Detroit to cover again hosting the Cavaliers. Cleveland is off a dramatic 114-113 home overtime win against the Celtics from Wednesday. Following this game, the Cavaliers head to the West Coast for four games. So this not only is a flat sport for the Cavaliers but their concentration and focus could be off, too. The Pistons are battle-tested having just played two games against the Bucks, the lone unbeaten team in the NBA, nearly winning one of the games. | |||||||
11-03-22 | Kings v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
The Kings have scored four or more goals in seven of their last 10 games. Expect them to continue their hot-scoring ways against the Blackhawks. The Blackhawks, though, have been hot offensively producing at least three goals in seven of their last eight games. The Blackhawks also have gone Over in nine of their last 12 home games. | |||||||
11-03-22 | Astros v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Justin Verlander is a great pitcher, a likely Hall of Famer. Except when it comes to the World Series. Verlander is 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA in eight World Series starts. That ugly pattern stayed true in Game 1 when he gave up five runs in five innings in a 6-5 loss. The Phillies are going with their least dependable rotation starter, Noah Syndergaard. He had a 3.94 regular season ERA and is far removed from the once feared strikeout machine. The Phillies showed their lack of confidence in Syndergaard when they decided to go with Ranger Suarez in Monday's Game 3 instead of Syndergaard when the game originally was rained out. Not only does Syndergaard allow many base runners, but he's one of the easiest pitchers in the league to steal on. These are two well-above-average offenses playing in a hitter's park. Forget yesterday's no-hitter. This is a new game with new pitchers, both of whom have vulnerabilities. | |||||||
11-03-22 | Appalachian State -3 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is 7-1. That's the best record in the Sun Belt Conference. But the Chanticleers aren't even favored at home here against Appalachian State. Did the oddsmaker make a mistake with a wrong favorite? Nope. Appalachian State is better than Coastal Carolina on both sides of the ball. Coastal Carolina has built its record feasting on easy opponents. This is the first time all season the Chanticleers are underdogs. They were upset by Old Dominion, 49-21, when they last played at home. What does that tell you? The Mountaineers rank in the top-25 in scoring offense and total offense. Senior quarterback Chase Brice has accounted for 25 TD's with four interceptions. The Mountaineers have three good running backs headed by Camerun Peoples. It's a red flag for the Chanticleers that they were gouged for 323 yards and four TD's on the ground by Old Dominion. The Chanticleers are even worse in pass defense ranking 116th. Coastal Carolina has good skill position players, but they aren't as good as Appalachian State's top weapons. The Chanticleers aren't as battle tested either as Appalachian State. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover any of its past four home games. The oddsmaker has it right. The Mountaineers are the superior team and they will prove it here. | |||||||
11-02-22 | Pelicans v. Lakers +3.5 | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
How can a team with LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook be that bad at 1-5? Answer: The Lakers aren't that bad. Their early shooting has been off. LA ranks 29th in field goal percentage and last in 3-point accuracy. Now I'm not saying the Lakers are ready to join the elites, but they finally have some confidence and momentum after beating the Nuggets, 121-110, at home this past Sunday. The Lakers have had ample time to prepare and be ready to host the Pelicans. Playing the Pelicans always is a big deal for Davis. He played seven seasons for New Orleans. The Pelicans aren't expected to have Brandon Ingram, their second-best player. I don't believe the Lakers should be home underdogs here. | |||||||
11-02-22 | Astros v. Phillies OVER 7 | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
Only three teams smacked more homers during the season than the Astros. The Phillies just clubbed five homers in a 7-0 win on Tuesday. I question Christian Javier's postseason dependability and I feel Aaron Nola is overrated when pitching at home where his ERA is 3.53. So I'm going Over this total with two well above average offenses in a hitter's ballpark. Javier had a 12.00 ERA in three appearances against the Braves in last year's World Series. This is his first World Series start. Nola isn't in good form giving up 11 runs in his past two starts spanning nine innings. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,160 |
Dan Kaiser | $1,039 |
Tom Macrina | $650 |
Ray Monohan | $618 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Jesse Schule | $418 |
Big Al McMordie | $350 |
Marc Lawrence | $300 |
Mike Lundin | $293 |
Joseph D'Amico | $268 |