Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-22-22 | Angels v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
This total is priced too low in a pitching matchup of lefties Tucker Davidson versus Jeffrey Springs. Davison is 2-3 with a 6.75 ERA. He's made two starts this season and his ERA is 7.20 in those outings. The Rays rank ninth in batting average against lefthanded pitching. Springs is having a good season going 5-3 with a 2.52 ERA. But he's not some ace and has a bad history against the Angels with a 1-2 record and 5.51 ERA. Mike Trout is back playing for the Angels upgrading their offense tremendously. | |||||||
08-22-22 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | 4-6 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
This is Monday's lone day contest. It's also a rare stand alone game for these two teams. The White Sox were rained out at Cleveland on Sunday. Chicago will have a rested bullpen. The White Sox begin a three-game road series against the Orioles on Tuesday. The Royals host the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. So this is a weird scheduling spot, which I consider a plus for the Under. The White Sox are averaging 3.1 runs in their last six games. They have scored four or fewer runs in 14 of their last 18 games. The Royals have a bottom-six offense and are mired in a huge scoring slump. Kansas City is averaging two runs per game during its last 10 games. The Royals haven't scored more than four runs in any of these past 10 games. The starting pitchers - Daniel Lynch and Michael Kopech - are good enough to take advantage of bad offenses. They faced each other three weeks ago. The Royals won, 2-1. Lynch didn't allow a run in 5 1/3 innings. Kopech gave up only two runs in seven innings. Lynch has pitched better lately than his 4.52 season ERA. He's held five of his last eight opponents to two earned runs or fewer. Kopech has a 2.77 day time ERA. He's at his best against bad offenses. That was evident two starts ago against the Tigers. Kopech shut out the Tigers for six innings, not giving up a hit while striking out 11 with three walks. The game is at Kauffman Stadium, which is favorable to pitcher's. There's a slight wind blowing in too, at around 5-6 mph. | |||||||
08-21-22 | Red Sox v. Orioles UNDER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
Baseball players are creatures of habit. But for the Red Sox and Orioles their routine is very different Sunday. They are competing in what has become the annual Little League Classic. ESPN televises this game from Williamsport, Pa., home of the Little League World Series. Even though it's a 7 p.m. ET start, the players don't get their normal rest coming to Williamsport from Baltimore, which is about a three-hour drive. They must get up early in the morning and go right to the ballpark. That's part of the deal with this game is that the day is spent with the big league teams interacting with kids. That throws off the normal pre-game routine and zaps some strength. Light rain is in the forecast, too, which is a distraction for hitters. This will be the fifth Little League Classic. Four of them have gone Under the total. The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta, 9-9 with a 4.28 ERA, versus Dean Kremer, 5-4, 3.58 ERA. Pivetta runs hot-and-cold. Kremer hasn't had good success against the Red Sox in three starts. This is the first time Kremer is facing Boston, though, in a neutral setting. Several players could miss the game. Tommy Pham didn't play Saturday because of lower back tightness. Eric Hosmer left Saturday's game with back spasms. Cedric Mullins didn't play either. He's dealing with a sore shin. | |||||||
08-21-22 | Wings +12 v. Sun | 89-79 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
The Sun is the superior team. No argument there. But the Wings are much better than they showed in the playoff opener when they were embarrassed by the Sun, 93-68. I see the Wings playing much better while giving everything they have with their season on the brink here. Dallas did beat the Sun two of three during the regular season. The Wings have covered seven of their last nine road games and are 6-1 ATS following a loss. | |||||||
08-20-22 | Steelers v. Jaguars -130 | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
The Jaguars are the only 0-2 team in preseason. Their new coach Doug Pederson would like to get them a win in front of the home fans trying to build excitement for the upcoming season. Jacksonville's first-unit has looked good this preseason. The Jaguars have been done in by poor play from their reserves and stiff third-string QB Jake Lutton. Lutton has been cut now - hopefully never to suit up again in the NFL - and the Jaguars' main QB rotation will be Trevor Lawrence and CJ Beathard. Most of Jacksonville's starters will play at least through the first half, including Lawrence, Travis Etienne and Christian Kirk. Beathard is a huge upgrade on Lutton. Rookie QB Kenny Pickett is slated to see the bulk of the game for Pittsburgh. Steelers QB's played well in their opener. But that was against the Seahawks, who had a terrible tackling game. The Jaguars have an underrated first-string defense and their backup defensive players have had a better week of practice knowing they must perform at a higher level with jobs on the line. | |||||||
08-20-22 | Angels v. Tigers +141 | 3-4 | Win | 141 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
Rarely will a team sweep a series. That's especially true with the Angels, who are 15 games below .500. They edged the Tigers, 1-0, on Friday behind a four-hitter from Patrick Sandoval. The Angels are likely to win Sunday when Shohei Ohtani takes the mound for them. Before that matchup we have this game pitting Reid Detmers against Tyler Alexander. Both pitchers have identical 4-3 records and 3.45 ERA's. The Tigers have the eighth-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. The Angels rank 20th in bullpen ERA. I say the underdog Tigers get this middle game with scheduling a key factor. The Angels hadn't been away from the West Coast all month until Thursday when they flew into Detroit. They were OK for a Friday night game. However, this is a day game and an extremely early start for Los Angeles. The body clock of the Angels players is bound to be messed up. So there is more than meets the eye in this matchup making the underdog attractive. | |||||||
08-19-22 | Saints v. Packers -3 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The teams have been conducting joint practices and the Packers' defense has been getting the better of things, according to multiple reports. Jordan Love has much to prove in this game. So does the Packers wide receiving corps. Saints coach Dennis Allen has never won a preseason road game as a head coach going 0-7, including 1-6 ATS. New Orleans doesn't put a premium on preseason games. The Saints are 7-14 SU, 6-15 ATS in preseason since 2015. The Saints aren't putting emphasis on this game either. The Saints aren't going to play many starters here. The few they do won't play long, perhaps a series or two. Jameis Winston is nursing a slight foot injury. He won't play. New Orleans' backup QB's are Andy Dalton and Ian Book, a stiff who figures to draw most of the minutes. The Saints' third and fourth-stringers didn't look good in a 17-13 loss to the Texans last week. The Packers are likely to leave some of their starters and second-stringers in longer than the Saints. Green Bay is home and cares more about winning this game than New Orleans does. | |||||||
08-19-22 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 7.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
While I don't expect the White Sox to give up 21 runs and 25 hits like they did to the Astros Thursday night, I do expect enough scoring for this game to go Over the total. The Guardians are averaging 5.4 runs in their last five games. They draw Lance Lynn, who has been a major disappointment this season. Lynn has been at his worst on the road where he's 0-3 with a 7.46 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in five away starts. He's nothing more than an innings-eater at this stage of his career - and not a very good one either. The White Sox face Triston McKenzie, who is a good pitcher but has several factors working against him here. McKenzie has a 4.62 night ERA and is 0-2 with a 7.28 ERA and 1.41 WHIP career-wise against the White Sox in 29 2/3 innings. The White Sox have scored four or more runs in five of their last six games. | |||||||
08-19-22 | Edmonton Elks v. Ottawa OVER 48 | 30-12 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 53 m | Show | |
Edmonton and Ottawa are the two worst teams in the CFL. This should be a loose game featuring two mobile quarterbacks - Taylor Cornelius and probably Caleb Evans of the Redblacks. Evans played poorly against Calgary in Ottawa's last game. But he led the Redblacks to a victory against Toronto two games ago while being named CFL Top Performer for that week. Ottawa ranks No. 2 in the CFL in total yardage yet averages only 19.8 points. Expect that to change here as Edmonton has the worst defense in the league. The Elks are giving up a whopping 36 points per game in nine games. So the Redblacks should finally produce points no matter if Evans or Nick Arubuckle, a former Elk player, should start. Cornelius should be in line for a big game on the ground as Ottawa ranks third-from-the bottom in run defense. He has a top wide receiver in Kenny Lawler, who is tied for the most receptions in the CFL. | |||||||
08-18-22 | Mystics v. Storm UNDER 159.5 | 83-86 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
The teams met three times during the regular season. The combined score never exceeded 159 in any of the games. Now we're into the playoffs where defense and intensity goes way up. The Mystic have held their last 11 opponents to have an average of 74 points a game. The Storm have held their opponents to fewer than 80 points in 18 of their last 22 games. Seattle may catch a defensive break, too, as Washington's third-leading scorer, Natasha Cloud, injured her knee in Sunday's regular-season finale and isn't likely to be 100 percent. | |||||||
08-18-22 | Bears v. Seahawks UNDER 40 | Top | 27-11 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
The Bears' terrible offensive line has been made worse by a cluster injury problem. Bears coach Matt Eberflus can't risk Justin Fields, or any other Chicago offensive starter getting hurt. So the Bears starters are projected to only play one or two series. That means a lot of Trevor Siemian and Nathan Peterman playing with a heavy dose of third-stringers. This isn't a recipe for a lot of Chicago scoring. The Seahawks will be fired up defensively after a terrible tackling game in their preseason opener against the Steelers. Pete Carroll stressed the Seahawks need to clean up their act on defense. Geno Smith appears to have won the Seahawks' starting QB spot. He's been in a battle with Drew Lock, who tested positive for COVID-19 and has been ruled out of this game. Smith is likely to start, but third-string QB Jacob Eason is expected to play most of the game. Don't expect much from Eason. He didn't play against the Steelers last week as Smith and Lock battled it out. Eason has received limited reps in camp. The Seahawks have a bad offensive line and they have multiple wide receiver injuries. Also promising rookie running back Kenneth Walker III is out with a hernia injury. | |||||||
08-18-22 | Mets -120 v. Braves | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Max Fried is a very good pitcher. But Jacob deGrom is the best. At this low of a lay price, I'm going to back deGrom and the Mets, who have a .644 winning percentage compared to the Braves' .605 winning percentage. Out during the first half of the season, deGrom hasn't missed a beat with a 2-0 record and 1.62 ERA. He's been tremendous this month leading the majors with 28 August strikeouts while holding opponents to a .109 batting average. He is 10-7 with a 2.01 ERA lifetime versus Atlanta. This trumps Fried, who is 10-4 with a 2.60 ERA. Fried is 5-5 with a 2.89 ERA in 19 career appearances versus the Mets, including 14 starts. Fried may be a bit out of rhythm, too. He last pitched 12 days ago after suffering a concussion during his last start. | |||||||
08-17-22 | Liberty v. Sky -8 | Top | 98-91 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
The defending WNBA champion Chicago Sky host the New York Liberty in this opening playoff game. There's a big class difference between the 26-10 Sky and 16-20 Liberty. The key question is the gap enough for the Sky to cover this number? I say it is. The Liberty did well to get into the playoffs. They accomplished the task by winning six of their last eight games. But none of these games was against any of the top five teams in the league. There's a dropoff from the top five teams - Sky, Aces, Sun, Storm and Mystics - to the rest of the league. Chicago has a huge edge inside. The Sky led the WNBA with an average of 42.1 points in the paint. The Liberty was last in that category, averaging 31.2 points. Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman give the Sky a strong inside presence. Chicago finished No. 1 in the league in field goal percentage. The Sky also have much better depth and bench strength than New York. The Liberty is highly reliant on star guard Sabrina Ionescu. But she can go hot and cold. New York ranked third-from-the-bottom in scoring. The Liberty did well to reach the postseason. But they aren't going to advance out of the first round. | |||||||
08-17-22 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 11-7 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a rare weekday afternoon home start for the Angels. That means hitters are going to have it rough later in the day when shadows fall as they do at Angel Stadium. Both teams are well below average offensively. The Mariners rank 23rd in runs and 25th in batting average. The Angels are worse, ranking 25th in batting average and 27th in runs. The Angels are averaging 2.6 runs in their last five games. I like Seattle rookie starter George Kirby, who is 4-3 with a 3.39 ERA. He hasn't given up more than two earned runs during his last six starts. He has a 2.25 ERA in two starts against the Angels. He held the Angels to one run on six hits in six innings with eight strikeouts and no walks when he faced them 11 days ago. Angels starter Touki Toussaint is more of a wild-card. He's 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA, though, and is coming off a strong start against the A's last Wednesday holding Oakland scoreless in five innings while allowing just two hits. | |||||||
08-16-22 | Cubs -153 v. Nationals | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
The gift that keeps giving is back. Stuck with a huge contract they gave to Patrick Corbin four years ago, the Nationals keep trotting him out. Never mind that Corbin has become the worst pitcher in the National League if not all of baseball. Corbin is 4-16 with a 7.02 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. He's given up four or more earned runs in each of his last six starts. Washington is 0-9 in Corbin's last nine starts. The Nationals are bad enough without Corbin, owners of the worst record in baseball at 39-78. They are 16-40 in their last 56 games. The Nationals have the highest ERA and WHIP and have committed the third-most errors. Unlike the Nationals, who dealt their two best players - Juan Soto and Josh Bell - at the trade deadline the Cubs held on to their key players, including Wilson Contreras and Ian Happ. The Cubs are in rebuild, too, but their undertaking isn't nearly as massive as the Nationals. The Cubs are a respectable 12-10 in the second half of the season. Justin Steele will oppose Corbin. Steele has been exceptionally sharp lately with a 1.26 ERA in his last three starts. He has a 25-to-2 strikeout-to-ratio during these past three starts. | |||||||
08-16-22 | Cubs v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
There have been at least nine runs scored in nine of Patrick Corbin's last 13 starts. It's not a coincidence that these games have been high-scoring. Corbin has gone from bad where he had a 5.82 ERA last season to a total disaster this year with a 4-16 record, 7.02 ERA and 1.82 WHIP. The Cubs have scored 35 runs in their last seven games, an average of five runs per game. They have a number of promising hitters who can take advantage of Corbin's total ineffectiveness. The Nationals can do their part to get this game Over the total facing lefty Justin Steele, who has a 1.41 WHIP. The Nationals have the sixth-highest batting average in the National League against lefty pitchers. Both teams are well below average defensively and each team's bullpen ranks in the bottom-10 in bullpen ERA. The Over has cashed 10 of the last 13 times when the teams have played in Washington. | |||||||
08-15-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
The Under hasn't won the last seven times the Blue Jays have hosted the Orioles. I don't see that streak ending here in a pitching matchup of Kyle Bradish versus Yusei Kikuchi. Baltimore has some underrated pitchers. Bradish isn't one of them. He has a 6.42 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. The Blue Jays have seen him twice this season getting to him for 14 hits in 9 2/3 innings. Bradish has a 7.45 ERA against them. The Orioles' bullpen got worse during the trade deadline when closer Jorge Lopez was traded. Toronto is due to breakout after being held to only four runs against the Guardians during a three-game series going against Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill. Bradish is way beneath those starters. The Blue Jays have the second-highest batting average in baseball, rank fifth in runs and seventh in homers. The Orioles get to see Kikuchi for the third time this season. He is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts against Baltimore this year, including getting battered for five earned runs in five innings last Monday. The Orioles smacked three homers against him in that 7-4 victory. | |||||||
08-14-22 | Vikings v. Raiders -4 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
When it comes to preseason, laying more than a field goal is a lot. But it's justified in this case backing the host Raiders. Las Vegas has the huge edge of having played a game, having looked good in beating the Jaguars, 27-11, in last week's Hall of Fame Game. The Vikings won't have Kirk Cousins. Their two other QB's are Sean Mannion and Kellen Mond. This is one of the weakest backup QB rotations in the league. These two are so bad that the Vikings may be forced to acquire a better second-string quarterback. The Raiders are deep at running back and receiver. They hold a backup QB edge, too, with Jarrett Stidham and Nick Mullens. These two were decent against the Jaguars. Decent quarterback play will get the job done for the Raiders, who won't be nearly as rusty as Minnesota. | |||||||
08-14-22 | Mariners v. Rangers UNDER 8 | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The Mariners haven't scored more than four runs in seven of their last nine games. The Rangers have scored three runs or fewer in eight of their last 12 games. Both teams face strong starters in this matchup. Logan Gilbert is 10-5 with a 3.47 ERA for Seattle. Gilbert has been better on the road where he's 6-1 with a 3.01 ERA. He also has a 3.05 ERA when pitching during the day. Perez is having a career year with a 9-3 mark and 2.85 ERA. That fine ERA shrinks to 2.70 when Perez pitches at home. Both pitchers will be helped by the wind blowing in at around eight miles per hour. | |||||||
08-14-22 | Dream v. Liberty -150 | Top | 83-87 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
The Liberty defeated the Dream, 80-70, on the road two days ago. Now the Liberty gets to host the Dream with a playoff berth on the line. A New York victory clinches a playoff spot for the Liberty while eliminating Atlanta. I see New York accomplishing that. The point spread is low enough to back the Liberty on the money line. The Liberty have a stronger talent base with stars Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard. New York also has been playing much better than Atlanta. The Liberty are 5-2 in their last seven games. Their starting lineup and depth is improved with the return of Betnijah Laney from a knee injury. She scored a season-high 17 points against the Dream this past Friday. The Dream are 2-7 SU, 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games. They have lost three in a row, all by seven or more points. Atlanta has been short-handed due to injuries and leading-scorer Tiffany Hayes leaving the team to play in a tournament in Turkey. | |||||||
08-13-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Royals | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
The Dodgers are cooking. They've won 11 in a row - all by more than one run. LA has scored seven or more runs in eight of its last 11 games. The Royals are 20 games below .500. So I'm on board to ride this Dodgers' string today in a pitching matchup of Andrew Heaney versus Brad Keller. Heaney has been even better than the Dodgers expected since coming back from injury. He's pitched 28 innings. He has a 0.64 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and has struck out 37. Keller is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter with a 6-12 record, 4.45 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He probably wouldn't be in many team's starting rotations. Just two starts ago, Keller was pounded by the White Sox giving up 13 hits and eight earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. | |||||||
08-13-22 | Panthers v. Washington Commanders OVER 36 | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 284 h 12 m | Show |
One of the biggest factors in betting preseason totals is quarterback rotation. The Panthers are one of the few teams with a starting QB battle. They also have a deep QB rotation with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker and promising rookie Matt Corral. The Panthers need preseason to get Mayfield up to speed in their system. So the Panthers shouldn't be vanilla like many teams are in preseason, especially in their preseason opener. Carolina also needs to see what Corral can do. These QB's could all shine against a vanilla defense full of scrubs. Washington has one of the better backup QB's in Taylor Heinecke. Sam Howell is an exciting rookie QB, who could fare well playing against backups. Even though it's a preseason game, Commanders coach Ron Rivera could have motivation having coached the Panthers before coming to Washington for nine years from 2011-2019. The combined average total of Week 1 preseason games under Rivera for the past nine times is 41.5 points. | |||||||
08-12-22 | Wings v. Mercury +1.5 | 74-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
The Mercury is a home underdog to Dallas. A big reason for this is Phoenix will be without its best player, guard Skylar Diggins-Smith, due to personal reasons. But the situation trumps this development. The Mercury are in a four-way tie for the final two playoff spots. This is their second to last game. They close the regular season against the much tougher defending WNBA champion Sky. This game means nothing to Dallas. The Wings have clinched the No. 6 seed in the playoffs. They are locked into that playoff seeding. So the game means nothing to Dallas. But do the Mercury still have enough talent to beat even a disinterested Wings squad without Diggins-Smith and injured Diana Taurasi? Yes. They have outstanding guards even minus Diggins-Smith with Diamond DeShields, Shey Peddy and Sophie Cunningham, perhaps the most improved player in the league. The Mercury showed that when they defeated the Liberty, another playoff contender, by 10 points at home this past Saturday without Diggins-Smith and Taurasi. Phoenix is 10-6 at home this season. Dallas is without a key player, too, as its leading scorer, Arike Ogunbowale, is out with a hip injury. | |||||||
08-12-22 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
The Tigers have gone Under 69 percent of the time during their last 67 games against a righty starter. They face right-handed Michael Kopech today. Kopech, who has a 3.14 ERA when pitching at home, should be able to handle the worst offense in baseball. Detroit ranks last in many offensive categories, including runs, homers and OPS. This shapes up to be a bullpen game for the Tigers with Daniel Norris getting the start. The Tigers rank fifth in lowest bullpen ERA. The White Sox have scored 3 or fewer runs during seven of their last eight games. They are minus star shortstop Tim Anderson. So look for the White Sox to go Under for the 10th time in their last 13 games. | |||||||
08-12-22 | Browns v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 24-13 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
The announcement that Deshaun Watson is going to start has caused a switch of favorites in this game. Cleveland is now road chalk. The marketplace has this wrong. The Jaguars should win this game. The Jaguars laid an egg against the Raiders in the Hall of Fame game. But now the Jaguars have played a game and are home here. Those are key situational edges. Watson hasn't played since January of 2021. He's learning a new offense and isn't likely to play very long. The Browns are run-oriented. However, their two best running backs - Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt - are not expected to play. Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson has more of a sense of urgency than Browns coach Kevin Stefanski. The Jaguars fell behind the Raiders, 20-0, at halftime. Keep in mind, the Jaguars didn't play their top two QB's, Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Beathard, against Las Vegas. Peterson is going to play a lot of starters here. Lawrence, Travis Etienne and the rest of Jacksonville's first-string offense will get at least a couple of series. Lawrence has looked good in training camp. So has Etienne. The Jaguars upgraded their wide receiving corps. Lawrence needs game time work with them. This is that opportunity. There will be many defensive starters playing, too, for Jacksonville. The Jaguars outscored the Raiders, 11-7, in the second half. Jacksonville had five sacks against Las Vegas. I would rather have Beathard than either of the Browns' third and fourth-string QB's, Josh Dobbs and Josh Rosen. Those two figure to see the bulk of action for Cleveland. | |||||||
08-11-22 | Giants -145 v. Patriots | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
Far be it for me to question Bill Belichick's football decisions. I rank Belichick among the top-five NFL coaches of all-time with Vince Lombardi, Bill Walsh, Paul Brown and Don Shula. But facts are facts and right now the Patriots' rebooted offense is in disarray following the departure of ace offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to the Raiders. McDaniels ran Belichick's power-ground game offense for a decade. McDaniels has been replaced by Matt Patricia with heavy input from Joe Judge. These two failed head coaches didn't make their reputations on offense. Patricia was Belichick's top defensive assistant coach before his failed stint with the Lions, while Judge excelled as a special teams coach. The Giants were a disaster offensively under Judge. Nothing has clicked so far offensive-wise in the Patriots' training camp. The ground game has yet to get going with the change to more of a zone-block type of scheme, wide receivers haven't been getting open and none of New England's QB's - Mac Jones, Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe - have looked good. The offensive line has been distressingly bad making the transition. The quarterbacks have been under constant pressure during drills and scrimmages. Yes, it's extremely early in the season and defenses usually are ahead of offenses at this stage. But this is an extremely early game and the Patriots have looked beyond bad offensively, according to multiple camp reports. New Giants coach Brian Daboll wants to make an immediate good impression. So he won't be holding back any healthy starters. They may not play long, but Daboll is willing to put them in for at least a series or two. This is a pivotal year for Daniel Jones. The Giants have a good QB preseason rotation with Tyrod Taylor and Davis Webb backing up Jones. New York has plenty of explosive weapons for its quarterbacks along with an improved offensive line and what should be a monster upgrade in coaching from Judge to the highly thought of Daboll. Daboll was the architect behind Buffalo's offensive prowess. The Bills were 7-0 SU and ATS during the last two preseasons. Fair to say Daboll is putting more emphasis and has higher expectations on this game than Belichick. | |||||||
08-10-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Way under the radar, Mitch Keller is pitching the best ball of his career. The season numbers show a 3-8 record and 4.21 ERA. But Keller has been pitching great during his last five starts giving up just six earned runs during this 31-inning span. If given 1 1/2 runs, Pittsburgh would be 7-2 in Keller's last nine starts. One of those losses was 2-0 to the Rockies at Coors Field. Arizona is pitching Madison Bumgarner, who is on the downside of his career. He's 6-10 with a 3.96 ERA. Bumgarner has surrendered 14 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings during his last four starts allowing 30 hits and eight walks. He's given up a home run in four of his last five starts. | |||||||
08-09-22 | Yankees -127 v. Mariners | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Luis Castillo is a good pitcher. But he's trumped by Gerrit Cole. This is the smallest Cole has been favored by all season. The Yankees have the better bullpen, too, and a huge edge in power ranking No. 1 in runs and home runs. The Mariners remain without their best player, injured Julio Rodriguez. | |||||||
08-09-22 | Dream v. Aces -10.5 | Top | 90-97 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
The Aces got back on track this past Sunday upsetting Seattle on the road, 89-81. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon made a key adjustment starting center Kiah Stokes. That gave the Aces more size and rebounding. Las Vegas has covered 10 of the last 14 times it has hosted Atlanta. However, the last time the Dream played in Las Vegas, which was on July 19, they upset the Aces, 92-76. The Aces are in a good spot to exact revenge. The Dream are playing for the fourth time in six days. They just played in Minnesota two days ago. WNBA teams fly commercial, so six games in four days is an extremely tough grind. Making matters worse for the Dream is they are short-handed. They were only able to use eight players in their 10-point loss to the Lynx this past Sunday. One of Atlanta's missing players against the Lynx was Tiffany Hayes. She is the Dream's leading scorer. Her status is up in the air due to an ankle injury. Atlanta is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games. | |||||||
08-08-22 | Reds v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
The forecast is for the wind to be blowing out 13 mph. So that's a definite plus for the Over. So are the Mets getting to face a rusty starter, who isn't likely to pitch very many innings, and a Reds bullpen that has the highest ERA in the majors and gives up the second-most home runs. Cincinnati just placed Hunter Greene on IL. The Reds dealt Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle at last week's traded deadline. So who's left to start now? The Reds have come up with Justin Dunn, who hasn't pitched since June 17 because of a sore right shoulder. The Reds are likely to be careful with Dunn. That should mean a lot of innings from a Reds bullpen that has the worst ERA in the majors by far at 5.04. The Mets rank fourth in runs and batting average. They fortified their hitting depth at the trade deadline picking up Tyler Naquin, Daniel Vogelbach and Darrin Ruff. The Reds will be facing Chris Bassitt, who has a 3.61 ERA. Bassitt has been a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. But he's not Jacob deGrom or Max Scherzer. | |||||||
08-07-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -130 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
Even adding Juan Soto and Josh Bell, the Padres still aren't as good as the Dodgers. LA has beaten San Diego 16 of the past 18 times. This includes the first two games of this series by a 16-4 margin. I don't see things being any different in this series finale pitting Yu Darvish against lefty Tyler Anderson. The Dodgers are a blazing 14-3 since All-Star break. They have the best record in baseball at 74-33. Darvish hasn't been nearly as effective on the road as he has at Petco Park with a 4.50 away ERA compared to a 2.17 ERA at home. The Padres are 5-5 in his road starts. The Padres are a below average hitting team against lefties. They rank 20th in OPS versus southpaws and 23rd in slugging percentage. | |||||||
08-07-22 | Sparks v. Mystics -9 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Out of gas and out of motivation, the Sparks should be no match for Washington. Los Angeles realizes its playoff goal is not going to be met. The Sparks' postseason hopes have realistically been dashed with a six-game losing streak, the latest coming in heart-breaking fashion. That was an 88-86 road loss to Atlanta on Friday where a Sparks' game-tying basketball came just after time expired. That loss was mentally draining for the Sparks. I don't see them getting right to put forth much of an effort in this mismatch. The Sparks are also physically drained. This is their fourth game in six days, fifth in eight days. The last four all have been away from home LA is 2-6 ATS following a loss. The Sparks have failed to cover in four of their last five visits to Washington D.C. The Mystics are one of the five best teams in the WNBA. They are at least two levels higher than the Sparks. Washington defeated Las Vegas by 10 points at home this past Tuesday, but then played one of its worst games of the season in a double-digit road loss to the defending champion Sky on Friday. The Mystics rested their superstar, two-time league MVP Elena Delle Donne, in that loss to Chicago. Delle Donne is expected to play against the Sparks. The Mystics are 6-1 ATS the past seven times versus sub .500 opponents. Unlike the 12-20 Sparks, I see the Mystics being up for this home game. Given their talent and coaching edges that should mean an easy victory. | |||||||
08-06-22 | Fever +12.5 v. Wings | 91-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Indiana has lost 15 in a row. The Fever, though, has kept six of these last 10 losses to 10 or fewer points. Indiana should provide a full effort as it won't play again for the next six days. But nearly this entire handicap is based on the situation Dallas finds itself in. The Wings defeated the Sky and Aces - two of the three best teams in the league - during the previous four days to upgrade their playoff position. Now the Wings are dropping way down in class, while playing for the third time in six days.. I see a letdown occurring here. The Wings are average statistically. They play at the second-slowest pace in the league. I don't believe the Wings can cover this large of a number especially given the probable letdown factor. | |||||||
08-06-22 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 105 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
The Nationals give up the most runs and have the highest ERA in the majors. Take a bow Patrick Corbin. He's one of the Nationals most responsible for that with a 4-15 record and 6.57 ERA. It's a mystery that Corbin still remains in Washington's rotation after his last five starts. This is how bad Corbin has been during these past five outings - 21 innings pitched, 24 earned runs allowed, 39 hits, seven walks and five homers. The Phillies rank fifth in most home runs. The Nationals can do their part, too, to push this total Over. They are averaging a respectable four runs a game during their last four games. Phillies starter Ranger Suarez has been much worse at hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park where his record is 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA compared to 6-1 on the road with a 2.87 ERA. The weather is a plus, too, for the Over with the wind blowing out at nine-10 mph. | |||||||
08-05-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -122 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks are a respectable 27-27 playing at home. Colorado plays much worse on the road with a 17-34 away mark. The price is short enough to back the Diamondbacks here especially having this strong of a pitching edge. Colorado starter German Marquez is having a terrible season with a 6-9 record and 5.29 ERA. The Rockies' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. Arizona starter Madison Bumgarner has pitched much better at home where he's 5-3 with a 3.03 ERA. The Diamondbacks were idle on Thursday so they have a fresh bullpen. The Rockies finished a five-game set against the Padres in a high-profile series due to San Diego getting Juan Soto at the trade deadline. The Rockies are much weaker offensively away from Coors Field. They rank 28th in slugging percentage and 26th in OPS on the road. Arizona has won six of its last eight home contests. The Diamondbacks swept the Giants when they last were home. | |||||||
08-05-22 | Mystics v. Sky -5.5 | 83-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
I want the Sky, the best team in the WNBA, going for me after they were upset by the Wings in their last game this past Tuesday. The Mystics, on the other hand, are coming off a huge home victory against the Aces, the second-best team in the WNBA. The prideful defending champion Sky were extremely sloppy against Dallas. I'm expecting them to clean up their act going against one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. Chicago has covered 20 of the last 27 times versus above .500 opponents. The Mystics aid they will be resting Elena Delle Donne today. She's a superstar and the Mystics' best player leading them in scoring and rebounding. | |||||||
08-05-22 | Calgary v. Ottawa +5.5 | 17-3 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 47 m | Show | |
Ottawa has a very misleading 1-6 record. The Redblacks have lost five games by a combined 21 points. They lost twice to powerful 8-0 Winnipeg by an average of 4.5 points. Calgary just played Winnipeg twice and lost by seven points in each game against the Blue Bombers. The Redblacks have their confidence up after getting that much needed first win against Toronto this past Sunday. Caleb Evans was effective for the Redblacks completing 24-of-29 passes for 286 yards and two TD's against the Argonauts. Evans has steadily been improving. Calgary could be without its star running back, Ka'Deem Carey because of a hamstring injury. Carey is the second-leading rusher in the CFL and is tied for the most running TD's with five. | |||||||
08-04-22 | Red Sox -130 v. Royals | 3-7 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Nick Pivetta can be very erratic. But the Red Sox still are worth backing at this price against a rebuilding Royals team starting lefty Kris Bubic. Bubic is 2-6 with a 5.45 ERA. He has a 9.45 ERA in two appearances against Boston, including one start. The Red Sox are 3-1 in their last four games beating the Brewers and Astros during this span. They clearly are stepping down in class here. Boston got better at the trade deadline. The Red Sox are 13-4 the past 17 times facing a lefty starter. The Royals have lost seven of their past nine games. They also are 2-7 the last nine times hosting Boston. | |||||||
08-04-22 | White Sox -125 v. Rangers | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Johnny Cueto has been solid all season for the White Sox with a 2.86 ERA. He's been truly outstanding on the road with a 1.70 ERA. The price is right to back the White Sox and Cueto against the struggling Rangers, who are starting lefty Cole Ragans. This will be Ragans' big league debut. The White Sox could be making their move. They've won four of their last five games. The Rangers are on a three-game losing streak having just gotten swept at home by the Orioles. The Rangers scored a combined seven runs in those three games. Ragans has split his year between Double A and Triple A. The White Sox have the highest batting average against lefty pitching in the majors. | |||||||
08-04-22 | Blue Jays -120 v. Twins | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
The Twins have an above average offense and a solid starter going in Sonny Gray. But they are trumped in both of these areas by the Blue Jays, who lead the majors in batting average, are third in runs scored and sixth in homers. They also have stud Alex Manoah on the mound. Gray enters this month off a poor July where he posted a 5.92 ERA in five starts. Manoah is 11-5 with a 2.43 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 2.37 on the road. Minnesota is averaging 3.4 runs in its last four games. Toronto is 11-3 in its last 14 games. The Twins are stepping up after hosting the Tigers for three games. Minnesota defeated Detroit, 4-1, on Wednesday. The Twins, though, have lost 22 of the past 28 (78 percent) times following a victory. | |||||||
08-03-22 | Fever v. Dream UNDER 158.5 | 81-91 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
These are the two-lowest scoring teams in the WNBA. Indiana is playing the string out saddled with a 14-game losing streak. The Fever won't have Kelsey Mitchell, their lone offensive threat. She's out for the season with a foot injury. Mitchell was averaging 18.4 points. The Fever's next highest scorer averages 13.6 points. Indiana only has two players averaging in double figures now with Mitchell out. The Fever have failed to reach 80 points in six of their last seven games. Atlanta is a respectable middle-of-the-road defensive team. The Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times Indiana has played on the road. The Dream has failed to reach 80 points in six of their last nine games. The Under has cashed in 16 of their last 23 home games. The teams last met on June 5 in Atlanta. There were only 141 points scored in that game. | |||||||
08-03-22 | Royals +139 v. White Sox | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 59 m | Show | |
Lance Lynn is a prime example of coming back too soon from an injury. The White Sox rushed Lynn back to the mound and he's been largely ineffective all season with a 1-4 record, 6.42 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. Lynn has allowed at least four earned runs in four of his past five starts. He's surrendered six homers in his last starts spanning 16 innings. Brady Singer is one of the more underrated starters in the American League. His season marks are a 3.51 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Those are efficient numbers, but he's been in tremendous form allowing only two earned runs in his last three starts spanning 19 innings. That comes out to a 0.95 ERA. Singer has given up more than three earned runs only once during his last nine starts and that was four runs. The righthanded Singer has a 2.97 road ERA. The White Sox don't hit righties nearly as well as they do against lefties batting .280 versus southpaws and .251 against righties. The Royals are a respectable 5-6 in their last 11 games. The White Sox are an underachieving 52-51 on the season. They are one of the few teams I give a negative handicapping check mark when it comes to the manager, due to the ineptitude of Tony La Russa. The game clearly has passed him by. | |||||||
08-02-22 | Mariners v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
Seattle ranks 23rd in runs and 25th in batting average. And that's mainly factoring in emerging superstar Julio Rodriguez, the Mariners' best player, and Ty France, their lone .300 hitter. Those players are both out with wrist injuries. So it's not a coincidence Seattle is averaging 2.4 runs in its last five games. I don't expect the Mariners to produce much against Jameson Taillon, who is backed by a Yankees bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA and just added Lou Trivino. Taillon is 10-2 with a 3.72 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. He just blanked another bad offense, the Royals, in six innings during his last start. That was a 1-0 victory this past Thursday. Taillon has been at his best at home with a 3.16 ERA. The Mariners are throwing perhaps the most underrated pitcher in the American League, Logan Gilbert. He's 10-4 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.15 ratio. Gilbert is at his best on the road where he's 6-1 with a 2.47 ERA. The Mariners have committed the fewest errors in the league and rank fifth in bullpen ERA. | |||||||
08-02-22 | Sparks v. Liberty OVER 163.5 | 73-102 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
The Sparks are smaller and playing faster now that they no longer have Liz Cambage, their big center who slowed their attack down. The Liberty is giving up 83.8 points per game, which ranks eighth out of 12 teams. New York is averaging 84.3 points in its last three games. The Liberty should exceed that as the Sparks have the second-worst defense in the WNBA. The Over has cashed four of the last five times the teams have met in New York. | |||||||
08-01-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
The Orioles have been the biggest money-maker this season for bettors. They are 16-7 in their last 23 games. That mark goes up to 21-4 in their last 25 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs, an 84 percent winning percentage. Texas is 5-10 in its last 15 games. So I'll ride the Orioles as they move on to Texas to face the Rangers in a pitching matchup of Spencer Watkins versus Jon Gray. Nothing against Gray, who has been pitching well for the Rangers. But Watkins is in good form with a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts and Baltimore holds a bullpen edge. Orioles relievers have a fourth-best ERA mark of 3.05 compared to the Rangers' bullpen ERA of 3.79. | |||||||
07-31-22 | Ottawa +5 v. Toronto | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 30 h 35 m | Show | |
Hard to believe Ottawa is 0-6. The Redblacks have only been out of one game. All but one of their losses was by more than seven points. Ottawa is improving each week and due for positive regression. Ottawa QB Caleb Evans has been improving as he gets more comfortable running the Redblacks' offense with starter Jeremiah Masoli out. Jaelon Acklin has the second-most receiving yardage in the league and Richie Leone has the second-highest punting average in the CFL at 48.2. Those are key weapons for the Redblacks. Toronto has taken advantage of some scheduling breaks to go 3-2. But the Argos are not impressive. They have been outscored by 25 points and are minus 8 in turnover ratio. Toronto's last two wins were both against Saskatchewan and in one of those contests the Roughriders were short-handed due to a COVID outbreak. You have to go back nine games to last season to find the last time the Argos were favored by more than three points. They are 1-5 ATS the last six times they've been chalk. | |||||||
07-31-22 | A's v. White Sox -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
Sure the White Sox have been a disappointment at 50-50 through their first 100 games. But the A's are the worst team in the American League at 39-64. What the White Sox have going in this game is one of the most lopsided pitching matchups of the season - Adam Oller versus Dylan Cease. Cease has become a dominant pitcher with a 10-4 record, 2.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He's tied for the third-most strikeouts in the AL. Cease hasn't permitted a run in his last 20 2/3 innings. He faces a pathetic A's attack that ranks last in batting average and OPS and is second-to-last in runs. Oller could be the worst starter in the American League. Here are his numbers: 32 2/3 innings - 39 hits, 29 earned runs, 21 walks and nine homers allowed. That translates to a gory 8.07 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. So, yeah, I expect the White Sox to win this game by multiple runs. | |||||||
07-31-22 | Mercury v. Liberty +1.5 | 69-89 | Win | 100 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Phoenix is playing better winning three of its last four games. But all of those games were at home. The Mercury have to make the long cross-country journey to face New York, which desperately needs a victory in hopes of making the playoffs, being two games out from being the last seed. This is a day game, too, which makes it even rougher on Phoenix. The Mercury haven't played in an Eastern Standard Time Zone game since mid-June. Phoenix is 4-11 on the road this season. The teams met on July 7 in Phoenix and the Mercury won, 84-81. Home court should translate into a victory this time around for the Liberty. | |||||||
07-31-22 | Orioles +111 v. Reds | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
These are two terrible teams, right? Well that's halfway correct. The Reds are 22 games below .500. But the Orioles actually are an above .500 team. They have been the most profitable team by far for bettors in the majors this season. Once again, the Orioles are mispriced. They should not have opened underdogs to the Reds. Baltimore is 16-6 in its last 22 games and 27-15 going back to its past 42 games. The Orioles have pulled out 23 come from behind victories, which is the second-highest in the American League. The Reds are bad and likely to get worse being already active as the Tuesday trade deadline approaches. Gone is Luis Castillo, their best pitcher. Tyler Naquin also has departed. More veterans could be following. That can't help the Reds' concentration, nor team morale. I certainly don't see why the Reds should be favored from a starting pitching standpoint either with Austin Voth facing rookie Nick Lodolo. Voth is not going deep into the game. He's made six starts and 23 relief appearances. The Orioles are 7-1 in Voth's last eight appearances. I'm fine with a Baltimore bullpen game. The Orioles have the third-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors at 3.00. Lodolo will be making his fifth start since returning from a 69-day stint on the injured list. He has a 4.08 ERA in those starts. That ERA becomes 7.56 if you count just day games, which this matchup is. One more thing. The Reds have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.21. | |||||||
07-30-22 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
The oddsmaker opened this game short. Given the two listed starting pitchers, it would be surprising if there weren't double-digit runs produced in this game. I seriously question if rookies Glenn Otto of Texas and Chase Silseth should be in big league rotations yet. But since they are - at least for this game - I will gladly take advantage of it. Otto is 4-7 with a 5.37 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. During his last six starts spanning 26 2/3 innings, Otto has permitted 21 earned runs, given up 31 hits and a dozen walks. Silseth has a 5.84 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He had a very strong debut against Oakland. However, since then Silseth has made five starts. He couldn't reach the fifth inning in any of those outings. During his last five starts, Silseth has allowed 16 earned runs on 27 hits - including seven homers - in 18 2/3 innings. The Rangers rank in the top-10 in homers. | |||||||
07-30-22 | Wings v. Dream OVER 163.5 | 81-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
I find this total to be short given this matchup. The Wings have allowed at least 83 points in nine of their last 10 games. During this 10-game span, Dallas is giving up an average of 86.4 points a game. The Dream are allowing an average of 86.3 points in their last three games. These matchups were against the Lynx, Storm and Sparks. All three of those opponents are below average scoring teams. The Over has cashed 10 of the last 13 times the teams have met in Atlanta. Note, too, that this line opened pick. So overtime is a more realistic possibility than normal. | |||||||
07-30-22 | Guardians v. Rays -114 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
The Guardians beat the Rays, 4-1, behind Shane Bieber on Friday. Tampa Bay had won the previous seven times hosting Cleveland. Look for things to revert back to normal in the second game of this series in a pitching matchup of Zach Plesac versus Corey Kluber. Tampa Bay is 31-19 at home. Kluber isn't the Cy Young Award winner of 2014 and 2017 anymore. But he's still highly respectable and has pitched his best at tricky Tropicana Field with a 4-1 record and 3.42 ERA at home. Plesac, who is 2-8 with a 4.09 ERA, is not in good current form. He's 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA in his last three starts. He is 1-6 with a 4.97 ERA during his road starts. The Guardians have lost 11 of their last 17 away contests. They are a below .500 team on the road. | |||||||
07-29-22 | BC -125 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 32-17 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
Saskatchewan could be far closer to full strength than it was last week because of injuries and a COVID-19 outbreak. The Roughriders aren't a very good team, though, even if healthy. They lost and failed to cover against Toronto in their last two games. The Roughriders gave up an average of 30.5 points to the Argos in those two games. The Roughriders have played an easy schedule. BC is the first strong Western Division foe Saskatchewan has faced. BC is 4-1 with the lone loss occurring to two-time defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg. The Lions rank No. 1 in totals yards and points per game. They also give up the fewest yards per game on defense along with ranking first in pass defense. Roughriders QB Cody Fajardo sat out last week due to a knee injury. Jake Dolegala filled in for Fajardo and completed just 46 percent of his throws. Fajardo is likely to return here, but his mobility may be limited. Saskatchewan last played this past Sunday. So the Roughriders are on a short week. BC, by contrast, last played on July 21. So the Lions are on extra rest and prep time. | |||||||
07-29-22 | Guardians v. Rays OVER 6.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
This is not vintage Shane Bieber. But this total is priced like it is. Bieber has been a mere mortal this season with a 4-6 record and 3.55 ERA. He has a bloated 5.23 ERA during his last three starts. Tampa Bay starter Jeffrey Springs is not in good form either with a 4.40 ERA during his last three starts. Both starting pitchers have been surrendering the long ball. Bieber has given up six homers in his last seven starts. Springs has yielded five homers during his past three starts. So it shouldn't be too much to ask each of these teams to each score three runs, which would be all that is needed to get this total Over. | |||||||
07-29-22 | Aces v. Fever +14 | 93-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
The Aces are off perhaps their most satisfying victory of the season beating the defending champion Sky, 93-83, in Chicago on Tuesday. At stake was the Commissioner's Cup, which the Aces won for the first time in franchise history, along with establishing who is the team to beat this season in the WNBA. It was a monster victory for Las Vegas. So the Aces can be excused if they take Indiana - the worst team in the league - too lightly. The Fever have lost 12 in a row, a young team clearly in rebuild mode. The key question here is can the Aces still cover this large of a road number even if they play well below their standards in such an obvious letdown spot? I say no. Las Vegas is 3-8 ATS the last 11 times it has played a below .500 opponent. The teams met eight days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won that game by less than this point spread, 90-77. Indiana has covered four of its past seven games. So the Fever still are trying. They have two talented players in Kelsey Mitchell and NaLyssa Smith. The Fever should be rested and ready having not played since last Sunday. | |||||||
07-28-22 | Royals v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
Back at Yankee Stadium for the first time since July 17, the Yankees should be in a mood for a killing after getting swept in their two-game series by the cross-town Mets. The good news for the Yankees is they don't have to travel like the Royals. They also don't have to face Max Scherzer like they did on Wednesday. The Yankees draw righty Brady Singer, who would be a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter for many teams. The Yankees are 41-19 the past 60 times they've gone against a right-handed starter. Jameson Taillon goes for New York. He's been better at Yankee Stadium where he's 6-1 with a 3.49 ERA. The Royals' bats have gone cold. Kansas City lost its last two games to the Angels getting shut out by rookie Janson Junk in a 4-0 loss on Wednesday and by Jose Suarez, 6-0, on Tuesday. Taillon and the Yankee bullpen, which has the second-lowest ERA in the majors, are superior to those Angels and their relief pitchers. The Royals are likely without two of their best players with catcher Salvador Perez out and shortstop Bobby Witt having missed the last three games due to a hamstring injury. Note that of the Royals' last 10 defeats, all but one have come by multiple runs. | |||||||
07-28-22 | Lynx +2 v. Dream | Top | 92-85 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
This is a crucial game for the Lynx. They trail the Dream by 2 1/2 games for the eighth and final playoff spot in the WNBA. The Lynx have just seven games left. But they have hope if they win here because their next game is against the Sparks on Sunday. The Sparks are 12-15 and going through turmoil after cutting center Liz Cambage. A big key here is Sylvia Fowles is expected to play for Minnesota. She missed the Lynx's last game this past Sunday against Connecticut. She's the Lynx's leading scorer and rebounder. Minnesota has lost three in a row. Two of those defeats, though, came to Connecticut. The other occurred to Washington. Now the Lynx is stepping down in class. The Lynx are 5-1 ATS the last six times they've gone against a below .500 team. Minnesota has covered four of its last five away contests. The Lynx lost to the Sky by three points and to the Aces by one point during their past five road games. Those are the two best teams in the WNBA. | |||||||
07-27-22 | Angels v. Royals -128 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -128 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Since a 27-17 start, the Angels have been in free fall. Even with their 6-0 win against the Royals on Tuesday, the Angels have lost 15 of their last 19 games. The Angels are without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. They are bad again on the road this season going 18-29 in away games. The Royals were averaging 5.6 runs and 12.6 hits in winning three in a row until Tuesday's loss to the Angels. Look for Kansas City to get back to winning in a pitching matchup of Janson Junk versus Brad Keller. Junk's minor league ERA is 3.88. Keller has a 4.16 big league ERA, but pitches better at home and during the day. His home ERA is 3.88 and his day time ERA is 3.05. | |||||||
07-26-22 | Yankees -105 v. Mets | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
The Mets have been outstanding this season at 59-37. But they are trumped by the Yankees, who are 66-31. The Mets scored eight runs in their last game this past Sunday against the Padres. However, the Mets had scored only 10 runs during their previous five games for an average of two runs per game. The Yankees have scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 16 games. The Yankees are No. 1 in runs and homers. Aaron Judge has a MLB-high 37 homers with 81 RBI's and 80 runs scored. The Mets can't compete with the Yankees' power. They rank 19th in homers. The Mets' offensive numbers go down when they face left-handed pitchers, which is the case here with southpaw Jordan Montgomery going against Taijuan Walker. Walker has been superb with a 7-2 record and 2.55 ERA. But Montgomery has been very consistent for the Yankees with a 3.24 ERA. Montgomery is backed by a superior Yankees bullpen that ranks No. 2 in the league in bullpen ERA. The Mets are well below average against lefty pitching ranking 21st in batting average, 22nd in OPS and 23rd in slugging percentage. The Yankees have too many edges. The price is right to back them. | |||||||
07-25-22 | Rangers v. Mariners -137 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
Until running into the Astros, the Mariners were the hottest team in baseball winning 14 in a row. Now the Mariners go from losing three straight to the 64-32 Astros to the 43-51 Rangers, who just lost two of three to Oakland, the worst team in the American League. Expect the Mariners to get back on track in a pitching matchup of Glenn Otto versus Chris Flexen. Otto hasn't proven he is big league caliber with a 5.40 ERA. Otto has given up 18 earned runs in his last five starts spanning 21 1/3 innings. Texas is 0-5 in those games. The Mariners just faced Otto eight days ago and put up three earned runs on five hits, including two homers, in six innings during their 6-2 road victory. Seattle is 20-7 the last 27 times facing a righty starter. Flexen's 3.79 ERA ranks 19th in the American League. He's been especially hot lately going 2-0 with a 1.10 ERA during his past three starts. The Rangers have lost 42 of the last 58 times on the road against above .500 opponents. | |||||||
07-24-22 | Rangers -125 v. A's | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
The A's are going for their first home sweep of the season having won the first two games of their series against Texas. Don't expect the A's to achieve this. Oakland has the worst record in the American League. A big reason for this is a 14-32 home mark. The Rangers are eight games below .500. But they have a plus run differential. They are a superior team to the A's and have the better starting pitcher going Sunday. Martin Perez versus Paul Blackburn may seem like a starting pitching draw. It isn't. Perez is 7-2 with a 2.68 ERA. He's been terrific on the road with a 3-0 record and 2.52 ERA in eight away starts. Texas is 12-2 in Perez's last 14 starts. Both losses came to the Mariners. The A's have the worst offense in the majors ranking last in batting average and OPS, second-to-last in runs and third-from-the-bottom in homers. Blackburn started the season off extremely well, but he's run out of gas posting a 6.46 ERA and 1.60 WHIP during his past six starts spanning 30 2/3 innings. Blackburn also has a terrible history against Texas with an 0-2 record and 10.54 ERA in four appearances. The Rangers just saw Blackburn 11 days ago getting to him for five runs in six innings. Blackburn gave up four walks in that game, throwing just 55 strikes out of 101 pitches. | |||||||
07-24-22 | Wings -6 v. Fever | 96-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
Dallas is 11-15 and hoping to land a playoff berth. The Wings can't take a loss to this opponent. Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA at 5-24. The Fever are in free fall. They've lost 11 in a row - all by seven or more points with the averaging losing margin being 14.5 points. The Wings were competitive in their last two games taking on the defending champion Sky in a home-road series. The Sky have the best record in the league at 21-6. Now the Wings are stepping down in class. They played the Fever a month ago and buried them, 94-68. I have to believe the Wings are going to win this game. The Fever haven't been competitive. So I'll lay the points. | |||||||
07-23-22 | Sparks v. Aces UNDER 174 | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
The season stats show the Sparks and Aces each ranking among the bottom three in defense. Lately, though, both teams have exhibited stronger defensive play. This is a rivalry matchup, too. So I'm going Under. The Sparks have held their last three opponents to an average of 79 points a game. That's six points below their season average. Aces coach Becky Hammon knows her team has to improve their defense if they're going to win the league title. Las Vegas held Indiana to 77 points in its last game this past Thursday. Even the 77-point figure is misleading because the Aces build up a huge lead. The Fever scored a bunch of points during garbage time. ''I told them I really don't care about offense,'' Hammon said after Thursday's game. ''I just wanted to see them play defense and they did that for the most part.'' The Aces have held their past four foes to an average of 81.5 points, which is four below their season average. The Sparks have had trouble scoring against the Aces, averaging 73.6 points in three games versus Las Vegas this season. LA never scored more than 76 points during any of the three matchups. | |||||||
07-23-22 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 10 | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
There were 14 runs scored in last night's game between these two teams at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park. I'm expecting at least a dozen runs to be scored in today's game with the pitching matchup pitting lefties Steven Matz against Mike Minor. Matz has a 6.03 ERA. This will be his first start since May. Minor has a 6.21 ERA. Neither southpaw is going to be helped by the wind factor with the forecast being for winds to blow out to left field at around 10 mph. Mark Carlson is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over is 28-20 the past two seasons when he's been behind the plate. | |||||||
07-23-22 | Blue Jays -125 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
It's hard not to overreact to the Blue Jays destroying the Red Sox by 23 runs on Friday. Toronto pounded out 29 hits in winning, 28-5. Of course it was just one game. But it may take more than a day for the Red Sox to get rid of that embarrassment. But what really puts me on Toronto today besides its four-game win streak and hot hitting is the low lay price in a pitching matchup of Alek Manoah versus Kutter Crawford. Cutter has a 4.50 ERA. That ERA goes up to 5.09 when he pitches at Fenway Park. Cutter's daytime ERA is 6.43. Manoah has become one of the most dominant pitchers in the American League with a 10-4 record and 2.28 ERA. He's faced Boston twice this year and is 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA against the Red Sox. The Red Sox could be without J.D. Martinez for a second straight game due to back pain, while George Springer could return to Toronto's lineup after sitting out Friday's game to rest a sore elbow. | |||||||
07-22-22 | Storm -6 v. Mercury | 78-94 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Phoenix is the second-worst ATS team in the WNBA. The Mercury also rank second-to-last in rebounding and defense. They are a small, guard-oriented team that is without one of their better backcourt players, Diamond DeShields. She remains sidelined with a hip injury. The Mercury also have been negatively impacted psychologically with the absence of their star center, Brittney Griner, who remains in legal difficulty in Russia. Both teams need this game. The Storm is one of the elite teams in the league. They are playing for playoff seeding and coming off a 78-74 road loss to the defending champion Sky this past Wednesday. Seattle was outrebounded by 10 boards in that game. The defeat halted a four-game Seattle win streak. The Storm have covered the past four times following a loss. They also will have a rare rebounding edge against Phoenix. It's a huge game for Tina Charles, who came to Seattle after Phoenix released her. The former All-Star did not have a pleasant stay with the Mercury. I don't trust the Mercury even though they are one game out of the playoffs. They rarely beat an elite team and fail to close against weaker opponents. Phoenix could be rusty, too, having not played since last Sunday. The Mercury are 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing on three or more days rest. | |||||||
07-22-22 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks OVER 47 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 10 m | Show |
Winnipeg is coming off a season-high 43-point scoring performance against BC, who gives up the fewest yards per game in the CFL. Now the Blue Bombers step way down in defensive class facing Edmonton. The Elks have the worst defensive numbers in the league, including allowing a CFL-worst 36.7 points per game. QB Zach Collaros is off to an excellent start despite the Blue Bombers breaking in many new faces on offense. Winnipeg hasn't found a bell cow running back, but Collaros has found chemistry with his old receiving target from Hamilton, Greg Ellingson, and Dalton Schoen. Those two receivers have combined for 699 receiving yards, 44 receptions and six TD's in five games. Collaros has a 5-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 68 attempts during his past two games. The Elks rank last in pass defense while also surrendering the most passing TD's. So Collaros is in line for another big performance. Edmonton should do its part to help get this total Over. Winnipeg gives up the fewest points per game. However, the Blue Bombers' defensive statistics don't match that lofty No. 1 mark as Winnipeg ranks eighth in pass defense and sixth in total defense. | |||||||
07-22-22 | Cubs v. Phillies -125 | Top | 15-2 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The Phillies have played their best ball since firing Joe Girardi going 27-14. The Cubs come out of All-Star break losers of nine of their last 10. Chicago has failed to break the three-run barrier in 10 of its last 11 games. Kyle Gibson tamed a weak Marlins offense in his last start. He's certainly capable of taking advantage of the struggling Cubs, who are averaging 1.6 runs in their last six games. Gibson has 0.94 WHIP in his last three starts. The Cubs are starting Justin Steeler, who is 3-6 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. Short price to lay with the superior home club. | |||||||
07-21-22 | Montreal -135 v. Ottawa | 40-33 | Win | 100 | 52 h 30 m | Show | |
Montreal (1-4) and Ottawa (0-5) are the two worst teams in the Canadian Football League. Montreal is better. The oddsmaker certainly believes that making the Alouettes a road favorite. I'm on board with that thinking. The Alouettes have only been outscored by two points on the season. They have covered 20 of their last 28 road games and are a perfect 6-0 ATS during their last six trips to Ottawa. The situation is slanted toward Montreal. The Alouettes last played this past Thursday. This will be just their third game since July 2. It's Montreal's second game under new coach Danny Maciocia. So there should be fewer mistakes and sloppiness. Ottawa is on a short week having suffered a tough two-point road loss to Hamilton this past Saturday. The Redblacks have problems at quarterback with Jeremiah Masoli out. Caleb Evans hasn't impressed with his lack of accuracy and newcomer Nick Arbuckle hasn't fully learned Ottawa's offense and remains unproven. The Alouettes may have found a quality runner in Walter Fletcher. He showed promise in his first start with Montreal, averaging 7.3 yards rushing and 9.0 yards per reception. Ottawa has struggled to stop the run and its secondary has injuries, which could mean a big game, too, from QB Trevor Harris. | |||||||
07-21-22 | Dream v. Sparks -122 | 78-85 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
These teams have similar records. Atlanta is 12-14. LA is 11-14. The spot and situation, though, greatly favor the home Sparks. Atlanta is off its best win of the season, upsetting Las Vegas as a double-digit road 'dog this past Tuesday. That puts the Dream in a letdown spot here while they also carry a fatigue rating. This marks Atlanta's fourth game in seven days - all at different venues. LA is the far fresher team. The Sparks have been at home for their past six games. This is the finale of a seven-game homestand and only their second game in seven days. If the Sparks beat the Dream they finish their homestand with a 4-3 winning record. The Sparks haven't been able to defeat the top teams in the league. But they have taken care of business against the so-so, lower echelon teams like the Dream beating the Wings, Liberty, Mercury and Fever while losing to the Storm, Mystics and Sky during their last seven games. | |||||||
07-20-22 | Storm v. Sky UNDER 161.5 | Top | 74-78 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Seattle is the top defensive team in the WNBA ranking first in 3-point defense and second in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Storm have held their last four opponents to an average of 70.2 points. The Sky could be without double-digit scoring guard Courtney Vandersloot, who is questionable due to a concussion. She missed Chicago's previous game this past Saturday against the Wings in Dallas. The Sky have limited their past three opponents to an average of 74.6 points. They rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage and fourth in scoring defense. Another key factor to the Under is the early start time, which is 9 a.m. West Coast time for Seattle. The Storm has been on West Coast time for the last two weeks. The Sky hasn't played since that road win against Dallas, which was five days ago. So they could be rusty. | |||||||
07-19-22 | Dream +12.5 v. Aces | Top | 92-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Las Vegas is back on track going 3-0 following All-Star break. The Aces' three victories all came on the road with two coming against the Liberty in revenge mode and the other occurring this past Sunday against the Sun in a major challenge. Now the Aces return home to face the lowly Dream. I see a letdown coming from the Aces. So I'll take double-digit points with Atlanta. The Aces have failed to cover in their last six home games. They are 2-4 SU during these recent home games. Las Vegas often is overpriced. The Aces have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 games overall. Atlanta has covered the past four times versus Western Conference teams. The Dream have a winning point spread road record. The Dream defeated the Mercury, 85-75, this past Sunday in Phoenix. That was a huge morale boost for the Dream and showed they have quality reserves as their leading scorer, Rhyne Howard, Nia Coffey and Monique Billings all missed that game due to injuries. I'm not worried if Coffey and Billings are out. Howard is the Dream's star and she's questionable. It's a nice bonus if she does play, but I'll still take the Dream with this many points regardless of her status. | |||||||
07-19-22 | Liberty +8 v. Sun | 63-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Connecticut is right there with Chicago, Las Vegas, Washington and Seattle among the top five teams in the WNBA. There's a dropoff after those teams. But this is too many points for the Sun to be laying especially since they won't have Jonquel Jones. She leads Connecticut in scoring, rebounding and blocked shots. Jones tested positive for COVID-19. New York has been very tough on the road going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS during its last seven away contests. During this span, the Liberty has posted straight-up victories as double-digit underdogs against the Aces, Sun and Mystics. The Liberty doesn't lack for talent with Sabrina Ionescu and Natasha Howard among the best players in the league. New York shouldn't lack motivation either after an embarrassing 34-point home loss to the Aces this past Thursday. While the Liberty was idle for the past four days, the Sun last played two days ago in an emotional home game against the Aces. This is Connecticut's fourth game in seven days and they are short-handed without Jones. | |||||||
07-17-22 | Brewers v. Giants -1.5 | 5-9 | Win | 125 | 16 h 3 m | Show | |
Logan Webb is dominant at home. He has a 2.37 home ERA and a 1.80 ERA during his last three overall starts. I don't see the Brewers staying within a run of the Giants going with Jason Alexander on the mound and with their star closer, Josh Hader, going through his roughest stretch. Alexander has a 4.73 ERA. He's been fortunate to have an ERA under 5.00 considering opposing batters are hitting .314 off him. Alexander's ERA in his last three starts is 7.94. | |||||||
07-17-22 | Lynx v. Mystics -4.5 | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Minnesota has been playing better. However, this is just a brutal spot for the Lynx. It's their fourth game in six days. Word has it, too, that the Lynx had airline trouble on their way back from Indiana after beating the Fever two days ago. The Mystics had won four of their last five until losing three days ago to the Mercury in Phoenix. The Mystics are rested and ready now. They have the top defense in the league and also the best point spread record at 16-10 ATS. | |||||||
07-17-22 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The Orioles are averaging six runs per game during their last five games. The Rays are averaging 5.1 runs in their last seven games. There's a weather factor with the wind blowing out at 9-to-11 mph. Jordan Lyles certainly can't be trusted to hold the score down. Baltimore may not have its best relief pitcher either. Corey Kluber has been pitching well lately, but he's far removed from the dominant Cy Young Award winning pitcher he once was. So I find this total too low. Journeyman Lyles has a 4.37 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. He's at his worst, too, on the road where his ERA shoots up to 5.52. Orioles closer Jorge Lopez may be unavailable after throwing two innings on Saturday. The one time the Rays saw Lyles this season, they got to him for five runs in five innings. | |||||||
07-16-22 | Sky -4.5 v. Wings | 89-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Both teams are in action for the third time in six days. That's a heavy load in the WNBA. Chicago, though, is the best team in the league. One reason why the defending champion Sky are so good is their deep bench. Chicago is off double-digit victories against the Dream and Sparks aided by its deep roster. The Sky are 8-1 in their last nine games. The 18-6 Sky now draw another below .500 opponent in the Wings. The Sky won't play again for four more days. So they should be focused. Candace Parker certainly should be motivated. She was held scoreless for the first time in her 15-year WNBA career in Chicago's last game. | |||||||
07-16-22 | Red Sox +145 v. Yankees | 1-14 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
These two teams met last Sunday with the same pitching matchup of Nick Pivetta against Jameson Taillon. It wasn't pretty. Both pitchers were battered in an 11-6 Red Sox victory. The Red Sox have beaten the Yankees in the past three meetings. The Yankees head into All-Star break weekend not playing well with a 4-6 record in their last 10 games. Pivetta is the epitome of a hot-and-cold pitcher. Taillon is in terrible form after a strong early-season performance. Tallion is 9-2, but his ERA is 4.01. His ERA during his last three starts is 8.22. So at this 'dog price, the Red Sox are worth a shot. | |||||||
07-16-22 | Pirates v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
On the surface this total may look right in a pitching matchup of Mitch Keller versus Jose Urena. But on closer inspection, the total is too high. Keller has a 4.88 ERA. But he's taken major steps this summer to becoming a respectable starter. Keller has held seven of his last nine opponents to three earned runs or fewer. He's off his best start of the year holding the Marlins to one run in seven innings this past Monday. Urena doesn't get any marketplace respect. Yet he has a 3.00 ERA and is 2-for-2 in quality starts for the Rockies since coming up from the minors earlier this month. Urena is facing one of the weakest attacks in the majors. Pittsburgh ranks 28th in runs and is 29th in batting. The Pirates have scored four or fewer runs in seven of their last nine games. The weather and home plate umpire are pluses, too, for the Under. The wind will be blowing in at 7-to-10 mph. Charlie Ramos is slated to be the home plate umpire. This is his first full year in the majors. The Under has cashed eight of 12 times when Ramos has been behind the plate. | |||||||
07-15-22 | A's +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
Injuries and a brutal travel schedule have left the Astros extremely vulnerable for Friday's home game against the rested A's. Oakland was idle Thursday. Houston wasn't. The Astros had to go extra innings to nip the Angels late Thursday night in Anaheim. This means the Astros didn't return to Houston until the wee hours of this morning. Because of this tough travel schedule, Astros manager Dusty Baker said he will be resting a number of his starters. So at the very least, don't expect to see veteran catcher Martin Maldonado, Jose Altuve and Yuli Gurriel in Houston's starting lineup. Remember the Astros already are without injured Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley. Altuve suffered a bruised leg on Friday so he's almost certainly out. The pitching matchup is lefty Cole Irvin versus Jose Urquidy, who is replacing original listed starter Jake Odorizzi. The key is can the lowly A's still beat the Astros on the road even if Houston fields a JV type lineup? Yes. Oakland actually has played much better on the road. The A's are 4-5 in their last nine games. They would be 8-4 in their last 12 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs. Irvin is a crafty southpaw. He doesn't miss many bats, but he's tough to score against. He has a 3.32 ERA. The Astros rank just 21st in batting average versus lefties. Urquidy has a 4.08 ERA. The A's just faced him a week ago scoring three earned runs off him. So they are familiar with Urquidy. If the Astros decide to go back to Odorizzi, they'll be going with a pitcher whose home ERA is 4.41. The A's are the worst-hitting team in the majors. But their offense has shown some spark lately averaging eight runs per game during their last three games. The Astros may hold back their closer and best reliever, Ryan Pressly, after he pitched two innings on Friday. Houston would be 4-6 in its last 10 games if laying 1 1/2 runs. | |||||||
07-15-22 | Mariners -155 v. Rangers | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
The Mariners are 13-1 in their last 14 games. They are in a great position to go 14-1. So I'm going to ride them in a pitching matchup of Robbie Ray versus nominal Texas starter Matt Bush. Ray is 2-0 with a 0.91 ERA in his last six starts. Bush is a reliever. He's not going to pitch long making this a bullpen game for the Rangers. One Texas pitcher who could see action is Taylor Hearn, who has a 5.86 ERA. | |||||||
07-15-22 | Lynx -3 v. Fever | 87-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Minnesota is in must-win mode after losing, 92-87, at home to the Wings on Thursday. The Lynx are 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. The Lynx also have double revenge motivation. They are a lot stronger now with Sylvia Fowles back in the lineup. Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA with a 5-20 record. Done for the season, the Fever are going with young players in rebuild mode. They have the worst defense in the league. | |||||||
07-14-22 | Astros -151 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
The Astros lost in embarrassing fashion in their showdown game against Shohei Ohtani on Wednesday. But I see Houston bouncing back in a much more favorable pitching matchup of southpaws Framber Valdez versus Reid Detmers. Houston has won 46 of its last 65 games. The Astros are 12-3 during their past 15 games. The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10 games. They have lost 16 of their past 23 home contests. Valdez has been tough on the road with a 5-2 away mark and 1.75 ERA. He has a 1.64 ERA in his last three starts. The Angels rank among the bottom six against lefthanded pitching in slugging percentage, batting average and OPS. Detmers isn't in Valdez's class. He's not in good form either with a 5.52 ERA in his last three starts. The Astros have hit the fifth-most homers against southpaws in the league. The Angels still could be minus Mike Trout. He left Tuesday's game due to back spasms and did not play on Wednesday. The Angels had indicated Trout may need to miss a couple of games because of the injury. | |||||||
07-13-22 | A's +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
I'm not going to land on the A's very much. But with Paul Blackburn getting the start and Texas not playing well, I'll get involved with Oakland on the run line at plus 1 1/2 runs. Blackburn is the A's best pitcher. He's 6-4 with a 3.36 ERA. Blackburn has been tremendous on the road where he's 5-0 with a 1.28 ERA. Oakland has played better on the road. The A's are eight games below .500 away while a staggering 21 games below .500 when home. If given 1 1/2 runs, the A's would be 8-3 in their last 11 games. The Rangers are going with Jon Gray, who is 5-4 with a 4.03 ERA. Gray is never going to live up to the one-time hype of being a No. 1 type starter. He's been decent lately, but I would take Blackburn above him especially given how poorly Texas has been playing. The Rangers are 4-8 in their last dozen games. They would be 3-9 during this span if giving up 1 1/2 runs. | |||||||
07-13-22 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 8 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Starting pitchers Tarik Skubal of Detroit and Brady Singer of Kansas City are capable of taming tepid offenses. That should be the case here in this daytime getaway game, the final of a four-game series. The Royals are averaging 3.4 runs in their last five games. They are 26th in runs and 25th in homers. Speedy leadoff hitter Whit Merrifield is out for the Royals. The Tigers are averaging 2.6 runs during their past five games. They rank last in runs and homers. Singer is a righthander. The Under is 21-8-2 during the Tigers' last 31 away games against a righty starter. Kansas City is a pitcher's park and there will be a slight wind blowing in. Shane Livensparger is slated to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed 12 of 18 times for 67 percent when Livensparger has been the home plate umpire this season. | |||||||
07-12-22 | Red Sox v. Rays +110 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
Chris Sale can't be expected to go deep into this game having not pitched in the majors this season because of a rib stress fracture. Sale's rehab in preparing for his season debut was just 11 1/3 innings of minor league work with Boston's rookie league team, Double-A team and Triple-A team. Rays starter Corey Kluber isn't the dominant Cy Young Award winner of years past. But he's still solid with a 3.62 ERA. The Red Sox know this first-hand. Kluber just faced Boston six days ago at Fenway Park and threw six shutout innings, giving up three hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 7-1 victory. Kluber is 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA when pitching at Tropicana Park this season. The Red Sox entered this series in a letdown frame having just taken two in a row from the Yankees, including a big 11-6 home win in the Sunday Night ESPN Game. The Rays, on the other hand, had much to prove returning home after being swept three games by the lowly Reds in Cincinnati. | |||||||
07-11-22 | White Sox v. Guardians +104 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 104 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
Lance Lynn has yet to show anything since coming off the injured list. He has a 5.33 ERA. He just gave up five earned runs in five innings against the Twins during his last start this past Wednesday. So I don't get him opening as a road favorite against the Guardians and Cal Quantrill. Quantrill is a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.86 ERA. He has been better at home where he's 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA. The White Sox offense has been a disappointment this season ranking 20th in runs and 27th in homers. The White Sox entered the weekend with the highest swing rate in the American League at pitches outside the strike zone at nearly 36 percent. | |||||||
07-11-22 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
This is the first game of a Monday doubleheader and it starts early with Michael Pineda facing Brad Keller. Both pitchers will be made better by going against weak offenses. Keller proved that 11 days ago when he held the Tigers scoreless in six innings during a 3-1 home victory. The righthander allowed just five hits to the Tigers. Detroit is last in the majors in homers, 29th in runs and OPS and 27th in batting. Pineda has a respectable 3.62 ERA. He's backed by a surprising effective Detroit relief corps that went into the weekend with the third-lowest bullpen ERA. Pineda is 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA in day games. Kansas City ranks 26th in runs and 24th in homers and OPS. The Royals are likely to be missing speedy leadoff batter Whit Merrifield, who left Sunday's game with a toe injury. These two teams have a strong Under history with the low side cashing 69 percent of the time during the last 34 meetings at 25-8-1, including the last four played in Kansas City. | |||||||
07-10-22 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
No more drawing rookie starting pitchers. The Yankees are going to see veteran Nick Pivetta after the Red Sox have started a rookie pitcher for four straight games. Pivetta is having a solid season going 8-6 with a 3.68 ERA. Jameson Taillon has been solid, too, for the Yankees with a 9-2 mark and 3.63 ERA. He's backed by the second-best bullpen in the majors as Yankees relievers have the No. 2 lowest ERA in the league at 2.68. The Yankees won't have to face All-Star 3B Rafael Devers. He's out with a sore back. Slated home plate umpire Tripp Gibson III has an Under bias. The Under is 38-23 (62 percent) in his games behind the plate during the last three years. | |||||||
07-10-22 | Marlins +112 v. Mets | 2-0 | Win | 112 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
Nothing against Taijuan Walker, who has pitched extremely well for the Mets. But I'm not passing on Sandy Alcantara in an underdog role. Alcantara very well could be the best pitcher in the National League. He has a 1.82 ERA. The Marlins are 9-2 in his last 11 starts. The Mets aren't likely to have star outfielder Starling Marte, who was injured on Saturday. | |||||||
07-09-22 | Winnipeg v. BC -3 | Top | 43-22 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 39 m | Show |
Both Winnipeg and British Columbia are unbeaten. But statistically and situational-wise these teams are not that close. BC is much superior. The Lions rank first in the CFL in the major categories in both offense AND defense. They have allowed just two sacks in three games. Nathan Rourke has opened the season with the highest completion percentage in any three-game span in CFL history going 88-for-105 for 83.8 percent. The Blue Bombers average fewer than 22 points. They rank second-to-last in yards and are last in pass defense. They were fortunate to nip 1-2 Toronto last week in a 23-22 victory. The Lions average the most yards in the league while giving up the fewest yards per game. They are the No. 1 passing and scoring team. Their defense is No. 1 against the pass and No. 2 against the run. Winnipeg is getting a lot of respect based on its 4-0 record and being the defending Grey Cup champions. Right now, though, BC is the best team in the league. The spot sets up well, too, for the Lions as the Blue Bombers will be making the 1,318-mile, cross-country journey. | |||||||
07-09-22 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Injured earlier in the season, Brandon Woodruff is back to ace form for Milwaukee with a 1.73 ERA in his last five starts. The Pirates are 28th in runs and 29th in batting. They are averaging 2.1 runs in their last six games. The Brewers rank 22nd in batting. They are only averaging 3.1 runs during their last six games. So Pirates starter Zach Thompson should be able to hold up his end. The home plate umpire is slated to be Roberto Ortiz. The Under has cashed 70 percent of the time the last 30 games he's been behind the plate. | |||||||
07-09-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -118 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Madison Bumgarner has been solid at home for Arizona with a 3.23 ERA. The Rockies aren't nearly as dangerous on the road as they are at Coors Field. Colorado is 10-25 in its last 35 away games. The Rockies have scored three runs or less in seven of their past nine road contests. They might be without their top power hitter as C.J. Cron left last night's game with a wrist injury after being hit by a pitch. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is having a disappointing season with a 4.43 ERA. The Diamondbacks have scored at least five runs in nine of their last 11 games. | |||||||
07-08-22 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
The talent-rich Dodgers are 53-29. Of those 53 wins, 48 have come by more than one run. So if the Dodgers are going to beat the Cubs here - and they are a strong favorite - there's a 90.5 percent chance they will win by multiple runs based on their previous games. | |||||||
07-08-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -156 | 6-5 | Loss | -156 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
I like Zac Gallen better than any Arizona pitcher. The Rockies are terrible on the road and the Diamondbacks have been swinging hot bats. Even nipping the Diamondbacks by one run on Thursday, the Rockies are 9-25 in their last 34 road games. This isn't anything new. Colorado was 26-54 on the road last year. At 13-26, the Rockies own the worst away mark in the majors. Gallen is very solid. He's 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA. The Rockies can hit at home, but not on the road. They've scored three runs or less in seven of their past eight away matchups. Rockies starter Chad Kuhl has a 4.39 road ERA. He's off his highest pitch count in six games. Arizona has scored five or more runs in eight of its last 10 games. | |||||||
07-08-22 | Phillies v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
Zach Wheeler has a 2.66 ERA solidifying his place as one of the top righthanders in baseball. He gets to face a scuffling Cardinals squad that has scored a puny seven runs in their last five games. Only once in their past eight games have the Cardinals topped three runs. Adam Wainwright still is a very good home pitcher. His ERA when pitching in St. Louis is 2.25. Wainwright doesn't have to worry about facing the Phillies' most dangerous hitter with Bryce Harper out. Weather-wise, the wind is blowing in from eight-to-10 miles per hour. | |||||||
07-07-22 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The talent-rich Dodgers are 52-29. Of those 52 wins, 47 have come by more than one run. So if the Dodgers are going to beat the Cubs here - and they are a monster favorite - there's a 90 percent chance they will win by multiple runs based on their previous games. LA is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cubs are 4-10 in their past 14 road games. The Cubs have lost six in a row to the Dodgers. Not only do the Dodgers have a huge lineup edge, but also in starting pitchers with Mark Leiter Jr. going against Cy Young Award candidate Tony Gonsolin. Leiter was out of the majors the last three years until surfacing this season. He has a 4.85 ERA and is only in Chicago's rotation because of injuries to other pitchers. Gonsolin is bidding to become the first 11-game winner this season His ERA of 1.54 is the best in the majors. | |||||||
07-06-22 | Liberty v. Aces UNDER 170 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The Aces can't wait until All-Star break, which for them comes after this game. The Aces need to regroup going 2-4 in their last six games, including a 102-71 loss in their game this past Sunday on the road against Minnesota. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon and her team have been talking about urgency on defense since that loss. New York is the lowest scoring team in the WNBA averaging 77.3. The Liberty have averaged 77.1 points in regulation during their last six games. The Liberty are highly reliant on the outside shooting of Sabrina Ionescu. She's been cold, though, shooting a combined 11-for-37 (29.7 percent) from the field in New York's last two games. The Liberty rank 10th in 3-point accuracy. Las Vegas is fifth in 3-point defense. Las Vegas still leads the WNBA in scoring at 89 points per game. However, unlike earlier in the season, opponents aren't getting caught unprepared by first-year Aces coach Hammon's new-look offense. They've worked on slowing down the Aces, who like to play up-tempo since they have a small lineup. Expect the Liberty to slow the pace here. The Under has cashed in 10 of the Liberty's last 13 (77 percent) games against Western Conference teams. The Aces haven't scored more than 80 points in regulation during four of their last five games. New York ranks No. 2 in the league in defensive field goal percentage. | |||||||
07-06-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +118 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The Giants have to be faded as long as the oddsmaker keeps making them a favorite while they are struggling. San Francisco is 3-12 in its last 15 games. The Giants have lost a season-high six in a row. The Giants are averaging only 2.3 runs during their six-game losing skid. They face Merrill Kelly here. Kelly has won four of his last six starts. He had a career 3.21 ERA against the Giants in 10 starts. Alex Cobb gets the start for the Giants having yet to inspire confidence with a 4.94 ERA. The Diamondbacks, unlike the Giants, are swinging hot bats scoring at least five runs in all but one of their last eight games. | |||||||
07-05-22 | Twins v. White Sox -126 | 8-2 | Loss | -126 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
Fresh off sweeping three games from the Giants in San Francisco - all in an underdog role - the White Sox returned to Chicago and lost Monday to the Twins. The White Sox's concentration could have been impacted by a tragic Fourth of July shooting that took place during an Independence Day parade in suburban Chicago. The Twins also turned a key triple play. I like the White Sox to bounce back today. Minnesota is 4-15 (21 percent) following a victory. The White Sox are 20-8 during the second game of a series. Even with that victory, the Twins still are 3-9 during their last dozen road games against the White Sox. The pitching matchup is Chris Archer versus Michael Kopech. Archer has pitched well with a 3.08 ERA, but he's not the strikeout pitcher he once was and he doesn't go deep into games. Kopech is a rising star with a 2.78 ERA, who has been held back by arm injuries. He's healthy now. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $826 |
Dan Kaiser | $818 |
William Burns | $787 |
Tom Macrina | $650 |
Jesse Schule | $620 |
Mike Lundin | $408 |
Ricky Tran | $330 |
Ross Benjamin | $302 |
Joseph D'Amico | $253 |
Big Al McMordie | $173 |