Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 198 | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 44 h 40 m | Show |
After Games 4 and 5 of this Eastern Conference Finals both went Under by a combined 52 1/2 points, the Heat and Celtics went Over the total in Game 6 this past Friday with the Heat winning, 111-103. Jimmy Butler had a game for the ages scoring 47 points and the teams combined to make 52 of 56 free throws for 93 percent. Neither is likely to occur in this winner-take-all Game 7. Boston is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. Butler is banged up. He willed himself to hit 16 of 29 shots from the floor and make all 11 of his free throws. Butler was averaging a meager nine points during the previous three games. The Heat haven't had Tyler Herro, their No. 2 scorer, during the past three games. He's been out with a groin injury. Even if Herro plays, he figures to be rusty. Miami's backcourt scoring and shooting has been well below average during the series. The Celtics held the Bucks to 81 points in their Game 7 victory during their previous series. That Game 7 went Under by 15 points. Miami has the fourth-best defense in the NBA and ranked No. 2 in defensive 3-point percentage. The Celtics lack consistent scorers outside of Jayson Tatum. | |||||||
05-29-22 | Guardians v. Tigers UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
The marketplace is skeptical about Tigers rookie Elvin Rodriguez, who will be making his second big league start. But many factors are in place for this game to go Under. The value is there now, too, with the total rising from an opening 7 1/2. Cleveland is going with a hot Triston McKenzie. He has a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts and a 2.21 ERA in day games. McKeznie has a strong history against the Tigers with an 0.78 ERA in four starts. The Tigers are weak versus righthanders. The wind is blowing in at 10-12 mph. Bill Miller is slated to be the home plate umpire. That's a plus for the Under. Rodriguez is the wild card. After a rocky first inning in his first start against the Twins, Rodriguez settled down to pitch four scoreless innings before departing. He should be less nervous this time around. | |||||||
05-29-22 | Mercury v. Dream | 54-82 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Phoenix is off to a slow start at 2-5. But the Mercury have shown their veteran skill set with a pair of victories against the Storm. They also have back star guard Skyler Diggins-Smith, who is coming off a 28-point game. I like Phoenix's depth in the backcourt with Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, Diamond DeShields and Shey Peddy. The Dream has crashed back to Earth after a fast start with consecutive losses to the Mystics by a combined 25 points. The Mercury has covered six of the last seven in the series. | |||||||
05-28-22 | Blue Jays v. Angels +100 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
The Blue Jays have won the first two games of this series. But I see the Angels winning this home game in a pitching matchup of Michael Lorenzen against lefty Yusei Kikuchi. The Angels traditionally are a strong home team. That's the case so far this season as they are 12-5 in their last 17 home contests. The Angels also have done well versus lefties. They went 30-25 versus southpaw starters last year and are 8-5 against them this season. Kikuchi is having a good season, but he has a bad history versus the Angels with a 1-4 record and 10.92 ERA in seven previous starts against them. Lorenzen has his confidence up after consecutive strong starts giving up just one run during the past 13 innings. | |||||||
05-28-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers -106 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
We've been down this path before with the Rangers. They faced elimination down 3-1 to the Penguins in their first-round Stanley Cup matchup and prevailed. Now they need to win this home game to stay alive against the Hurricanes down 3-2 in the series. The Rangers have the resilience, goaltending and home ice necessary to win this game. Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad are due to step up bigger than they have in this series. Igor Shesterkin has regained his touch as the best goalie in hockey this season. The price is more than right to back the Rangers against a Carolina squad that has shown strength at home, but weakness on the road. The Hurricanes are 0-5 in their Stanley Cup away games. All of those losses were by more than one goal. They have been outscored by 13 goals on the road in the playoffs during those five games. Carolina doesn't have a good history at Madison Square Garden either, losing 20 of the past 26 times there. | |||||||
05-28-22 | Mystics v. Sun UNDER 156.5 | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a defensive showdown here. Not only are the Mystics and Sun the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, but they also rank first and second, respectively, in defense. The Mystics are holding foes to a WNBA-best 72.4 points per game. Connecticut is right there ranking second, giving up 73.4 points. The Sun also lead the league in creating turnovers and steals. The Mystics will be without their leading scorer, Elena Delle Donne. The star player, averaging 17.7 points, has a scheduled day off, according to Mystics coach Mike Thibault. The Sun recently lost their veteran point guard, Jasmine Thomas, to a season-ending knee injury. Thomas' absence could hurt the Sun's offense in this matchup. | |||||||
05-27-22 | Liberty +12.5 v. Storm | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Seattle has a strong pedigree. But right now Seattle just isn't that good. The Storm are a .500 team that could be 1-5 if not for close victories against the Sky and Sparks. Phoenix's only two wins this season have come against the Storm. The Storm rank 10th in scoring and are last in field goal percentage. Seattle has failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times it has been favored. So I believe the Liberty can hang within single digits. They have better talent than their 1-5 record indicates. New York should have defeated the improved Lynx on the road this past Tuesday. The Liberty blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead. Minnesota made 27 of 33 free throws in that game. | |||||||
05-27-22 | Blue Jays -105 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
The Blue Jays' dangerous lineup has underachieved this season - up until now. Toronto is averaging seven runs in its last two games. The Blue Jays got to Shohei Ohtani for five earned runs in six innings, including smacking two homers, in a 6-3 victory against the Angels Thursday night. Now Toronto draws rookie Chase Silseth. Silseth has a 2.61 ERA during his first two big league starts. Both of those starts, though, were against the weak-hitting A's, who are last in batting average and second-from-the-bottom in runs. But what really attracts me to Toronto is the low lay price with Alek Manoah pitching. He just may be the most underrated pitcher in baseball. Manoah hasn't allowed more than two earned runs during any of his eight starts this season. His 1.62 ERA is the third-lowest in the majors. | |||||||
05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
No team in NBA history has come back from a 3-0 playoff deficit. Don't expect the Mavericks to become the first. Dallas staved off elimination by holding off the Warriors, 119-109, at home two days ago. The Mavericks accomplished this by sinking 20 3-point shots on their way to making 46.5 percent of their 3-pointers. I can't see Dallas coming close to repeating that hot long-range shooting, which is its key to upsetting Golden State. The Mavericks were a below average 3-point shooting team finishing 19th during the regular season. The Warriors rank No. 3 in 3-point defense holding foes to 34.8 percent from beyond the arc. That percentage shrinks to 32.8 percent when the Warriors are playing at home. The Warriors are 8-0 at home in the playoffs. They haven't lost two in a row during the postseason in facing the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks. Dallas has failed to cover in five of its last six road games. Luka Doncic doesn't have enough reliable support for the Mavericks to stay close in this one. The veteran Warriors know how to finish off opponents. Steve Kerr will be focused, something it was tough for him to do after the tragic school shooting in Texas on Tuesday. Doncic is outnumbered by Golden State's many stars and role players. | |||||||
05-26-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals -115 | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
The Brewers have trouble with the Cardinals losing eight of the past 11 times to them. Perhaps the Brewers' biggest strength is the backend of their bullpen with closer Josh Hader and setup man Devin Williams. However, neither of those two are likely to play. Hader has been on family medical emergency leave. This has forced Williams to pitch in three straight games for the first time this season. So the Brewers need lefty Eric Lauer to pitch deep into the game. Lauer has pitched well with a 2.16 ERA. He's not that good, though, so regression is due. The Cardinals also hit lefties well. St. Louis ranks No. 1 in weighted on base average versus southpaws. Lauer has to deal with a pair of tough righthanded bats in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright continues to defy time. He has a 2.87 ERA. He's given up only three runs in 20 innings this month. | |||||||
05-26-22 | Wings v. Sun -7 | 68-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Short home revenge for Connecticut after the Wings upset the Sun, 85-77, on the road two days ago. That loss snapped a four-game Connecticut win streak. The Sun may not have had their full focus for that game after finding out that day that their starting point guard, Jasmine Thomas, will miss the rest of the season because of a torn ACL. Thomas has been a veteran leader for the Sun the past seven seasons. The Wings have firepower, but the Sun should be highly motivated for this game. The Sun still have excellent talent with Alyssa Thomas and Jonquel Jones. They've helped the Sun rank as the No. 2 scoring team in the league. Connecticut has adequate replacements for Thomas. | |||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics -120 v. Heat | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This Eastern Conference Final is tied 2-2, but it's my clear belief the Celtics are the superior team. That's especially the case with the Heat dealing with so many injuries. Boston has outscored Miami by 28 points in the series. The Celtics have outrebounded the Heat the past two games by an average of 15 1/2 boards. The Celtics are the top defensive team in the league. The Heat are not effective when they are being outrebounded and not hitting from beyond the arc. I don't see that pattern changing here. Being on the road shouldn't make a difference for the Celtics. Boston is 19-6-1 (76 percent) ATS in its last 26 away contests, including 5-1-1 ATS during the playoffs. | |||||||
05-25-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Astros | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
I see the visiting Guardians hanging close to the Astros in a pitching matchup of Cal Quantrill versus Christian Javier. I like Javier but he could be due for some regression with a 2.87 ERA. His ERA the past two seasons have been 3.55 and 3.48. Quantrill is a decent middle-of-the-rotation starter with a 3.48 ERA. He's second on the Guardians in quality starts. He can be counted on to go at least six innings, which he has done in each of his last six starts. This is important because while the Indians have a strong closer, Emmanuel Clase, they are vulnerable in middle relief. The Guardians have the least amount of blown saves in the league. | |||||||
05-25-22 | Blues v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
The prideful Blues, who won the Stanley Cup three seasons ago, are on the verge of elimination down, 3-1, to the Avalanche. I don't see the Blues going down easily. Yes, the game is in Colorado. But the Avalanche have been far from dominant during their last three home games, losing to the Blues by three goals and winning the other two in overtime. The Avalanche have scored four goals in regulation during their last three home games. There's been a lot of bad blood in this series. So I see a lot of intensity and tight checking rather than a clean, fast skating up-tempo game. | |||||||
05-24-22 | Mets v. Giants -127 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
Enough is enough. I want the Giants off an embarrassing 13-3 home loss to the Mets with their best pitcher, Logan Webb, going for them. The Mets have been a nice surprise, but their offense lacks consistency. They ranked 21st in homers and have scored three or fewer runs in four of their last eight games. Webb was brilliant last season with a 2.97 ERA. The Giants have won six of his eight starts this season. Webb is at his best pitching at home where he has a 3.13 ERA. He's only given up two homers in his eight starts. Mets starter Chris Bassitt is a decent starter. But he's not in Webb's elite class. | |||||||
05-24-22 | Fever +13.5 v. Sky | 90-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
The Sky and a happy Candace Parker are coming off a highly-satisfying national TV road win against the Mystics this past Sunday. Parker scored a triple-double against Washington. It was much celebrated since Parker was the oldest player in WNBA history to achieve that. Now the Sky get the rebuilding Fever, losers of four in a row. Following this game, Chicago gets Las Vegas at home up next. The Aces have the best record in the WNBA. So the situation sets up well for Indiana catching the Sky in a flat spot off a big win and with a huge look-ahead game. The Sky are 1-7-1 ATS the past nine times when meeting a foe with a losing record. Indiana is 10-3 ATS the last 13 times following a loss. | |||||||
05-24-22 | Cubs -103 v. Reds | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
The Cubs are in rebuild mode, but they still are five games better than the Reds, who have the worst record in baseball. Both starters, Marcus Stroman and Tyler Mahle, are off strong performances and pitching better. I give an edge to Stroman, though, who is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA in five career starts against Cincinnati. Mahle has a 5.23 ERA, still striving for consistency at the big league level. He has a 3.56 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in 13 starts. The Cubs have the superior offense and a much stronger bullpen. | |||||||
05-23-22 | Sparks v. Aces -10 | 76-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
The Aces are really dangerous now that they have an elite coach in Becky Hammon. So it's no surprise the Aces have the best record in the WNBA at 6-1 (5-2 ATS). This is the Aces' final game of their homestand. They won't play again for five days before taking on the Sky in Chicago. The Sparks have always been a rivalry matchup for the Aces. So I see Las Vegas being up for this game. The Sparks are inconsistent as they have been during the Derek Fisher coaching era. LA has lost four in a row going 1-3 ATS. The Sparks are 2-6 ATS following a loss. I see a motivated Aces squad covering a double-digit spread at home here. | |||||||
05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 26 m | Show |
I don't see Boston losing a second straight game at home to Miami following its 109-103 loss to the Heat this past Saturday. A Celtics loss would not fit what has been established as a strong pattern. The Celtics are 5-0 SU and ATS following a loss with a winning margin of 19.6 points in those games. All of those victories have been by eight or more points. Jayson Tatum had a poor game against Miami on Saturday missing 11 of 14 shots from the floor and committing six turnovers. Tatum has a strong history of coming back strong, too, following an off-game. Miami lost a road game following a victory in both of its playoff series against the Hawks and 76ers. The Heat have not strung together two consecutive road victories in the postseason. Miami has lost by seven or more points in 10 of its last 11 defeats. Both teams are banged up. Obviously it's a huge bonus for the Celtics if Robert Williams can play and if Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowery P.J. Tucker and Tyler Herro can't go for Miami. But I'm anticipating the Heat will have all of their injured players on the court. It doesn't change my mind that Boston is the right side here. | |||||||
05-23-22 | Phillies -115 v. Braves | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
The Phillies and Braves have been disappointing so far this season, each holding a 19-22 record. Atlanta has a losing home record. The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler against lefty Tucker Davidson. The Phillies have a winning mark versus southpaws and a huge starting pitching edge. So at this price I'm on Philadelphia. Wheeler is one of the better pitchers in the National League. He's in an excellent groove, too, with a 1-0 record, 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 20 innings. He has a 23-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. Davidson has a 5.87 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 7 2/3 innings this season. Career-wise when pitching in Atlanta, Davidson has a 7.36 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. | |||||||
05-23-22 | Panthers v. Lightning OVER 6 | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
There hasn't been more than six goals scored in any of the first three games of this Stanley Cup series. Each game has gone Under the posted 6 1/2 total. So now the oddsmaker has dropped the Over/Under to 6. At this number, I'm going to get involved with the Over. The Panthers led the NHL in scoring at 4.1 goals per game. But they've been totally held in check by Tampa Bay's defense and its star goalie, Andrei Vasilevskiy. Down 3-0 in the series - and with nothing to lose at this impossible stage - I see the Panthers playing loose, taking chances and going all out to dent the Lightning's defense. This could lead to multiple Tampa Bay goals if the Panthers should be trailing during the final few minutes of the third period. The Lightning were the eighth-highest scoring team in the league averaging 3.5 goals. They are coming off a five-goal game. | |||||||
05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs UNDER 219 | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
Down 2-0 in this Western Conference Final, the Mavericks return home in must-win mode. That means a slower-paced game and tremendous defensive intensity from the Mavericks. Dallas has gone Under 72 percent of the time during its last 55 home games. The Under has cashed in five of the Mavericks' six home playoff games. Golden State shot 55 percent from the field in Game 2. The Warriors also made 14 of 28 3-point shots. I don't see Golden State shooting anywhere close to that in Dallas. The Mavericks gave up the second-fewest points in the NBA and ranked fourth in 3-point defense. Stephen Curry gets a lot of headlines. The Warriors, though, are a tremendous defensive team, too. They ranked in the top three in fewest points allowed, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. | |||||||
05-22-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers +105 | 1-3 | Win | 105 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
I like getting the Rangers in this price range knowing they are in must-win mode and their defense and strong goaltending is back. New York has held the Hurricanes to three goals in regulation during the first two games of this series. The Hurricanes lost all three of their road games to the Bruins in their last series. Carolina was outscored by eight goals in these road defeats. The key for the Rangers is if their offense will come around. I think it will now that the Rangers are back home. New York scored 14 goals against the Penguins in three home games during their previous series. | |||||||
05-22-22 | Sky v. Mystics OVER 159.5 | 82-73 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
The Mystics get back Elena Delle Donne, their leading scorer, for this game. That's huge both for Washington and for the total. The Mystics won't have injured guard Alysha Clark, though. That's another plus for the Over because she's an excellent defensive player. These are two of the top-five scoring teams in the WNBA. So I see this total as being short. | |||||||
05-21-22 | Avalanche v. Blues OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
Never mind that the Avalanche and Blues are each top-four scoring teams, averaging 3.8 goals per game. It doesn't matter that the Avalanche have fired 85 shots on goal during the first two games of this series, or that the Over is 22-10-1 in St. Louis' last 33 games. Who cares that the Over is 6-1-1 the past eight times these two teams have played in St. Louis. What matters is that the first two games of this series both went Under with the Avalanche winning, 3-2 in overtime, in Game 1 and the Blues upsetting Colorado, 4-1, in Game 2 this past Thursday. The important takeaway from those two games from a totals perspective is that the expected goals were much higher than what actually transpired. I'm expecting the floodgates to finally open here with each team getting at least three goals. The Avalanche were off their game in Game 2. They played too slow. Colorado is going to pick up the pace. The Avalanche wants a fast-paced game. They are going to force the action. The Blues remain without two veteran defensemen with Marco Scandella and Torey Krug both out. So there is some vulnerability. The Blues are dangerous with all of their lines. They had nine players score 20 or more goals during the regular season. The Blues have scored four or more goals in nine of their last 11 home games. | |||||||
05-21-22 | Lynx +5 v. Wings | 78-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
The Lynx are 1-5, but 1-1 since Kayla McBride made her season debut. Minnesota defeated the Sparks and hung in against the Aces during its current road trip going 2-0 ATS. Now they Lynx get the Wings, who are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games. Dallas is off a huge, 94-84, win against the Mercury from two days ago. So this is a potential letdown spot for Dallas. Minnesota has covered five of the past six in the series. | |||||||
05-21-22 | Reds v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
I really like Toronto starter Alex Manoah, who is 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA. Reds starter Hunter Greene has potential, but I don't think he's ready to be in a major league rotation yet. Even throwing 7 1/3 innings of no-hit ball against the Pirates last Sunday, Greene still is 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA. The Reds are 6-18 on the road. That's the most away losses in the majors. Toronto has won 25 of its last 36 home games. | |||||||
05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
The Mavericks have proven resilient all season both on the court and on the sidelines where Jason Kidd has made necessary adjustments. So I see the Mavericks bouncing back in this Game 2 after being embarrassed, 112-87, by the Warriors in Game 1 this past Wednesday. The Mavericks still might not have come down from their great upset Game 7 road win against the Suns this past Sunday. They will now after their deflating opening game blowout loss. Dallas missed 20 of 28 uncontested 3-point shots. Luka Doncic was held in check, scoring a postseason-low 20 points on only 6-of-18 shooting from the floor. Even with that Game 1 blowout loss, the Mavericks still have covered 11 of the last 15 times against the Warriors. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Golden State. | |||||||
05-20-22 | Tigers v. Guardians +105 | 1-6 | Win | 105 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
The Tigers have lost 12 of their last 15 road games and traditionally struggle at Cleveland losing 38 of the last 50 times there. Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is 0-2 lifetime against the Guardians with a 5.94 ERA. This includes a 9.95 ERA in two starts at Progressive Field. Cleveland starter Aaron Civale was solid last season with a 12-5 record and 3.84 ERA in 21 starts. He's off to a slow start this season, but is 6-0 career-wise against the Tigers with a 2.19 ERA in seven starts. | |||||||
05-20-22 | Fever +14 v. Sun | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Until getting buried, 101-79, by the Dream this past Tuesday, Indiana had not lost a game by more than 14 points in any of its six games. Fever coach Marianne Stanley ripped her team following that loss questioning the Fever's effort and intensity among other things. So the Fever should be primed for a big effort here. Connecticut is fat and happy off a 92-65 victory against New York this past Tuesday. The Sun forced 32 turnovers in that win. Indiana turned the ball over only 12 times in its loss to the Dream. The Fever also held a rebound edge. Atlanta, though, was hot making 54 percent from the floor, including 10-of-22 3-pointers. It was a combination of poor defense by Indiana and excellent shooting by Atlanta. The Fever are 9-3 ATS following a loss. The Sun has played just three games. Indiana has played twice as many games. The teams meet again Sunday in Indianapolis. So the Sun won't likely want to run up a score knowing there would be a rapid revenge factor. This could leave the backdoor open in case Connecticut does build up a big advantage. | |||||||
05-19-22 | Lynx +11 v. Aces | 87-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
After an 0-4 start, the Lynx got their first win two nights ago beating the Sparks, 87-84. It was not a coincidence that it was Kayla McBride's season debut after returning from Turkey where she led her team to a Turkish title. Minnesota is a much better team with McBride on the court. The Lynx can stay within double-digits of the Aces, who are 2-5 ATS following a win and 1-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Lynx, on the other hand, are 12-4-1 ATS following a victory. | |||||||
05-19-22 | Blues v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Expect more than the five goals that were scored in Game 1 when the Avalanche nipped the Blues, 3-2, in overtime. These teams tied for the third-most goals during the regular season, each averaging 3.8 goals per game. Colorado peppered Blues goalie Jordan Binnington with 54 shots with three hitting the post and two the crossbar. I'm not counting on the inconsistent Binnington playing that well and being that lucky again. St. Louis is likely to still be missing defensemen Marco Scandella and Torey Krug. The Avalanche did their scoring damage with their supporting cast. Their superstars are due to step up now. The offensive-minded Blues have excellent scoring depth, too. The Over is 13-3-1 in their last 17 road games. Prior to Game 1, the teams had gone Over during their past six meetings. | |||||||
05-19-22 | Reds v. Guardians -123 | 4-2 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm anticipating a pitching matchup of Tyler Mahle versus Cal Quantrill. They were the scheduled pitchers in Wednesday's game that was rained out. But this is an action play for me as I want to fade the Reds on the road. Just how bad are the Reds? They rank last in pitching, have the worst defense and bullpen and are 28th in batting at .216. They are 4-17 on the road. Cincinnati actually no-hit the Pirates this past Sunday - and still lost! The Indians are 9-6 in their last 15 games. They are getting a huge season from superstar third baseman Jose Ramirez, who leads the league in RBI's. Mahle has been terrible when pitching on the road with a 6.50 ERA. Quantrill has settled in as a reliable middle-of-the-road type starter. He has a 3.93 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. | |||||||
05-18-22 | Oilers v. Flames -149 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a much anticipated series. Calgary is the better team and I see the Flames getting this Game 1 victory at home. I thought the price would be higher on the Flames so I'm getting involved. Calgary beat Edmonton the past two times they met - back in March - by a combined six goals. The Flames finished with the best shot attempt percentage in the NHL. Calgary had to deal with a hot Dallas goalie Jake Oettinger in its last series. The Oilers don't have that type of stellar goaltending. Edmonton superstar Leon Draisaitl is dealing with an ankle injury. So he's unlikely to be 100 percent. | |||||||
05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
We saw it in Game 1 of the Celtics-Heat series. The Celtics were spent after taking out the Bucks in seven games and got buried by the Heat. I see the same thing happening here with the Mavericks, off their seven-game series upset win against the Suns, going against the rested Warriors on the road. Dallas lost its first two road games against the Suns by a combined 27 points. Golden State is 6-0 at home during the playoffs. The Warriors won all but one of those games by six or more points. The Warriors are 7-2-1 ATS when playing on three or more days rest. They last played five days ago. The Warriors have multiple quality defenders to slow down Luka Doncic. | |||||||
05-18-22 | Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Both games in Tuesday's doubleheader between these two teams went Under with a total of 11 runs scored in the two games. I see another low-scoring game here. The main reason for this is Mets starter Max Scherzer. He has a 2.55 career ERA against St. Louis in 14 starts. The Cardinals lineup has a combined batting average of only .156 against Scherzer. Converted Cardinals starter Jordan Hicks is starting to get stretched out and could go deeper into the game than he has been. Hicks and the Cardinals relief pitchers won't have to deal with Mets star outfield Starling Marte, who is out. | |||||||
05-17-22 | Blues +196 v. Avalanche | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Colorado has shown some vulnerability during the second round of the playoffs the last few seasons. It wouldn't surprise me if the Blues stole this first game of this series. So at this price, I'm throwing down on St. Louis. The Avalanche could be dealing with serious rust having last played on May 9. The Blues have won nine of their last 11 road games. Colorado only outscored St. Louis by one goal during three regular season meetings. | |||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat UNDER 204 | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 38 m | Show |
This Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals should be a feeling out process between two outstanding defenses. The Celtics ranked No. 1 in defensive scoring, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Bucks, the third-highest scoring team in the NBA at 115.5 points, could only average 88 points in their last two games against Boston. Boston might encounter a rusty Miami team, too, since the Heat haven't played since last Thursday. The Heat gave up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA while ranking No. 2 in defensive 3-point percentage and defensive rebounding. The Heat have surrendered fewer than 100 points in six of their last eight games. They held the 76ers to an average of 87.5 points in their last two games. The Under has cashed in nine of Miami's last 11 games. | |||||||
05-17-22 | Giants v. Rockies +147 | 10-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
The Giants are not a team I usually like to go against. But this overinflated line puts me on the home underdog Rockies in a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb versus Chad Kuhl. Kuhl has pitched much better than expected this season. He's 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA. Cobb is a middle-of-the-rotation type. The Rockies have produced 33 runs in their last four home games. They play and hit much better at Coors Field. The Giants have had the Rockies' number winning 11 in a row against them. But I see that streak ending here. | |||||||
05-17-22 | Lightning v. Panthers -153 | 4-1 | Loss | -153 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Look for the Panthers to get this opening game, a game they've been pointing to ever since the Lightning eliminated them in the playoffs last season. Florida is much improved from a year ago setting a franchise record with 122 points, most in the league. The Lightning still could be sucking wind after a hard-fought seven game series against the Maple Leafs that concluded Saturday night. Tampa Bay is 1-4 the past five times when playing on two days rest. The Lightning also may be minus forward Brayden Point, who is doubtful after suffering a lower-body injury in Saturday's victory against Toronto. The Panthers, the highest-scoring team in the NHL, are 48-11 in their last 59 home games. | |||||||
05-16-22 | Astros +106 v. Red Sox | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
If there's any explanation why the Red Sox opened a favorite against the Astros, I'm all ears. Because I sure don't see it. OK, the game is in Boston. Red Sox starter Garrett Whitlock has pitched well for much of the season so far. But these factors don't come nearly close enough to bridge the gap between the Astros and Boston. The Astros are superior in every category. The records bear this out. So does current form. Houston is 12-1 in its last 13 games. Boston is 6-14 in its last 20 games. Both starters, Jake Odorizzi and Whitlock, are right-handed. The Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games versus a righty starter. The Red Sox are 9-19 in their last 28 games when facing a righty starter. Odorizzi isn't splashy. He's just a solid veteran, who has a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts. Whitlock, a converted reliever, has a 4.09 ERA in his last three starts. Only once has he even pitched into the fifth inning this season. | |||||||
05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
There's no secrets or surprises at this late Game 7 stage. The Suns are the better team. The key question, though, is are they good enough to cover this mid-range number? The answer is yes because their home court makes a huge difference. The Suns are 3-0 SU and ATS at Footprint Center against the Mavericks in this series winning by an average of 19 points. Dallas has failed to cover in 10 of its past 13 visits to Phoenix. Home teams in Game 7 NBA playoff history have won 79.1 percent of the time. This is a 134-game sampling. The Suns have a scoring and rebounding edge in the paint. They also own an edge in free throw percentage. Luka Doncic is the best player on the court, but the Suns have the next three best players in Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. | |||||||
05-15-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 209 | Top | 81-109 | Win | 100 | 38 h 28 m | Show |
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum are true superstars. But this Game 7 is going to be about defense, incredible intensity and a slow, deliberate pace. Those ingredients spell Under. The Celtics were the No. 1 defensive team during the regular season. They've held the Bucks under their season average in five of the six games during the series. Milwaukee really misses its second-best offensive player, injured Kris Middleton. The Bucks are no slouches on the defensive end either. There have been fewer than 205 combined points scored in four of the six games in the series. So it doesn't figure that all of a sudden there is going to be a major scoring outburst in Game 7. | |||||||
05-15-22 | Royals v. Rockies -133 | 8-7 | Loss | -133 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
The Rockies are underpriced here just like they were on Saturday when they smacked the Royals, 10-4. Kansas City has lost 12 of its last 17 road games. The Royals are much inferior to the Rockies offensively at Coors Field. The Royals rank in the bottom five in many major offensive categories. Colorado is averaging 6.3 runs in its last 11 home games. The Rockies hold a starting pitching edge with Austin Gomber facing the Royals' Daniel Lynch. I believe the Rockies should be around 20 cents higher, so I'm on Colorado. | |||||||
05-14-22 | Kings +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
I'm taking 1 1/2 goals on the puck line in the belief the Oilers will wilt at home under the pressure of a Game 7. Even if they win, it will be by the narrowest of margins. Edmonton hasn't won a playoff series in five years. The Kings were an outstanding 23-11-7 on the road during the season. They are 2-1 on the road against the Oilers during this first-round series. LA still has some veterans remaining from its Stanley Cup winning teams of 2012 and 2014. So the Kings know how to win important games. | |||||||
05-14-22 | Red Sox +109 v. Rangers | 11-3 | Win | 109 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
The records don't reflect it yet. But Boston is superior to Texas. The buy sign is on the Red Sox as a 'dog after they beat the Rangers, 7-1, Friday night. Texas is a false favorite in a pitching matchup of Rich Hill versus Glenn Otto. Hill still is effective when healthy as evidenced by his 2.86 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in five starts. He is 2-0 with a 2.94 ERA in three career starts against the Rangers. The Rangers have been terrible when favored, losing 11 of the last 14 times in that role. | |||||||
05-14-22 | Orioles +106 v. Tigers | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 54 m | Show | |
The Tigers got past the Orioles in the series opener. That was just Detroit's second win in its last 11 games. The Tigers have won consecutive games just twice all season. Baltimore has the better starting pitcher going here. So I'm going to ride with the Orioles. Orioles southpaw Bruce Zimmermann is one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League with a 2-1 record and 2.67 ERA. He's given up two earned runs or less in five of his six starts. The Tigers are going with veteran Michael Pineda, who is 1-2 with a 3.43 ERA. He's a middle-of-the-rotation type starter at best. The Tigers are 5-13 at home this season and 3-7 against lefties. | |||||||
05-13-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
The Bucks lead this Eastern Conference series, 3-2. But I'm convinced the Celtics are the better team. The Celtics beat the Bucks in Milwaukee in Game 4 and I see them doing it again here. Boston has outscored the Bucks in the series. The Celtics' average margin of victory is 15.5 points. The Bucks have won two of their three games in the series by a combined five points. The Celtics let a 14-point lead slip away in losing Game 6, 110-107, at home this past Wednesday. Boston, though, has proven itself on the road going 6-0-1 ATS the last seven times as a road 'dog. The Celtics also are 9-1 following a loss. Milwaukee is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games. It's an added bonus for the Celtics if injured big man Robert Williams can play after missing the past two games because of knee soreness. | |||||||
05-13-22 | Blue Jays v. Rays +114 | 2-5 | Win | 114 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
The long baseball season produces many ups and downs. After a 15-8 start, the Blue Jays are on a down cycle losing seven of their last nine games, including four in a row. The Blue Jays are struggling mentally, too, following an emotional and frustrating road series against the Yankees. I don't see things picking up for the Blue Jays as they now have to travel to Tampa to face the Rays. The Blue Jays opened as road favorites because they are pitching Kevin Gausman. The Rays, though, have a good starting pitcher going, too, in Drew Rasumussen. He's an underrated 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA. Rasmussen has given up just two earned runs in winning his last three starts. Gausman has a 4.00 lifetime ERA against the Rays in 17 appearances. Rasmussen has a career-mark of 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three appearances versus the Blue Jays. | |||||||
05-13-22 | Rangers v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
I don't trust the Rangers, nor their Kid Line of Alexis Lafreniere, Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko, to produce many goals on the road in this Game 6 matchup. The Penguins may be without Sidney Crosby, their superstar and leading points producer in this series. Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin, a strong favorite to win the Vezina Trophy as the league's top goalie, finally settled down in the last game after playing poorly in Games 3 and 4. Because of these factors, I'm seeing a lower-scoring game than what this total indicates now that it has reached 6 1/2. | |||||||
05-12-22 | Suns -120 v. Mavs | Top | 86-113 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
The Suns' defense showed up in Game 5 - a 110-80 home victory against the Mavericks this past Tuesday. I don't see Phoenix's defense going away in this Game 6 with the series shifting back to Dallas. The spread is short because the Mavericks defeated the Suns in Games 3 and 4 in Dallas. But the Suns' defense is back to their elite level and Devin Booker is hot, averaging nearly 27 points in the series while making 16 of 32 shots from beyond the arc. Luka Doncic is the only Dallas player who can be relied upon. Doncic, though, is not getting enough help. The Suns are holding a huge front-court edge and have the stronger bench. Phoenix is the superior team. It's not asking too much of the Suns to just win this game - after a 30-point crushing victory in the game - before so they can move on to the Western Conference finals. | |||||||
05-12-22 | Yankees +132 v. White Sox | 15-7 | Win | 132 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
The White Sox have won seven of their last eight games. But that is trumped by the Yankees going 15-2 in their last 17 games. So I'm going to take this plus price on the Yankees, who have defeated the White Sox seven of the last eight times they've faced them. The pitching matchup is Dylan Cease versus Luis Gil, but this is an action play for me as I respect both pitchers. Cease has a 2.38 ERA. However, Cease is 0-1 with a 7.71 career ERA against the Yankees in two starts. Gil had a 3.07 ERA in six starts last season with 38 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. This is Gil's first start this season. The White Sox have never faced him putting them at a disadvantage. | |||||||
05-12-22 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
The Maple Leafs haven't won a first-round playoff series in 18 years. I don't see them ending that streak with an upset road victory against the Lightning today. Tampa Bay has won 70 percent of its last 113 home contests. Even more impressive is the Lightning are 17-0 in the playoffs following a loss. Toronto is up 3-2 in the series. The Lightning followed each of their losses in this series with multiple goal victories. The highly-experienced two-time defending Stanley Cup champions have earned my respect and trust especially at home where they have the final say on line changes. | |||||||
05-11-22 | Storm -4.5 v. Mercury | 77-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
I want the prideful, well-coached Storm off a bad loss to Las Vegas in their last game. The Mercury are down a number of key players. They will be missing Kia Nurse and Brittney Griner and also are likely to be without Brianna Turner and Diamond DeShields. The Storm has covered five of the last seven times in Phoenix. | |||||||
05-11-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
The last time the Bucks received this many points was against the Celtics on the road in Game 1 of this series. Milwaukee won that game, 101-89. There's a certain yin/yang to this series with the teams alternating victories during the first four games. The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. I see Milwaukee keeping this one closer than the point spread indicates. Jayson Tatum is a great player. But Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player on the court. The Bucks lost Game 4 by eight points because they shot horrible, especially Jrue Holiday, who was 5-of-22 from the floor. The Bucks also were an uncharacteristic 4-of-21 from inside the paint. The Celtics made 50 percent of their field goal attempts in Game 4. The Buck shot only 41 percent from the field. I don't see Holiday and Milwaukee's big men shooting nearly as poorly as they did in Game 4. | |||||||
05-10-22 | Blues v. Wild -144 | 5-2 | Loss | -144 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
I trust the Wild to beat the Blues at home just like they in Game 2 of this series. That was the last time the Wild hosted the Blues and they won by four goals. Minnesota is 15-3 in its last 18 home games. St. Louis could be down possibly three defensemen with Nick Leddy, Marco Scandelia and Robert Bortuzzo all dealing with injuries. | |||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
Zig and Zag. Ebb and flow. Whatever you want to call it, the pattern often fits during NBA playoff series. I don't see this series being any different. The Heat took advantage of home-court and Joel Embiid being out to win the first two games of the series. The 76ers returned home, got Embiid back and won the next two games to tie the series at 2-2. Now it's Miami's turn to hold serve returning home. I have confidence in Heat coach Erik Spoelstra making the right adjustments and for Miami to turn things around at home in this Game 5. The 76ers are 7-15 ATS following a victory. They have covered only two of their last 10 away games and are 1-6-1 ATS during their past eight games in Miami. The Heat have covered seven of the last eight times they've been home. | |||||||
05-10-22 | Aces v. Mystics +5.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
The Aces blew out the Phoenix Mercury, who were missing Brittney Griner. They then beat the Seattle Storm, who were missing their starting center. So the Aces enter this matchup fat and happy. Washington is 6-2 ATS as a home 'dog while the Aces have failed to cover five of the last seven times as chalk. | |||||||
05-10-22 | Brewers -1.5 v. Reds | 5-4 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Look for the Brewers to bounce back from a 10-5 loss to the Reds last night in a big way. The Brewers are averaging nearly seven runs during their last 10 games and draw overmatched rookie Hunter Greene. Milwaukee just got to see Green this past Thursday and got to him for eight runs on nine hits, including five homers, in 2 2/3 innings. Greene has a 13.06 ERA in his last 10 1/3 innings. Freddy Peralta is off to a slow start for the Brewers. But he's a quality pitcher, backed by a vastly superior bullpen. Peralta won't have to deal with Joey Votto, MIke Moustakas and Nick Senzel, who are all in COVID protocol. | |||||||
05-09-22 | Phillies v. Mariners -111 | 9-0 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Surprised the Mariners are a favorite? Don't be Chris Flexen is a strong home pitcher. The Phillies are 3-12 the past 15 times they've been 'dogs. It's a bad situational spot for the Phillies, too, traveling to the West Coast after playing a Sunday doubleheader at home. The Phillies' bullpen carries a fatigue rating and their scheduled starter, Ranger Suarez, isn't very good. He's a bottom of the rotation type with a 4.63 ERA. Seattle went 46-35 at home last season and this year they are 8-5 as hosts. | |||||||
05-09-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
Even if it's just one point, I'm going to back an underdog that is superior. That's the case with the Celtics in Game 4 of their series with the Bucks. Boston buried Milwaukee by 23 points in Game 2 and should have won Game 3 this past Saturday on the road. The Bucks got a break on a bad call by the official late in the game to hold off the Celtics, 103-101. The Celtics only lost by two points - and could have easily won - despite Jayson Tatum missing 15 of 19 shots from the floor, while Giannis Antetokounmpo and a number of his teammates had huge games for Milwaukee. Boston is capable of playing much better. The Bucks aren't without Khris Middleton, who is out with an MCL sprain. The Celtics are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games while the Bucks are 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine home games when taking on a foe with a winning road mark. Note, too, that since the calendar turned 2022 the Celtics are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS off a loss. So the track record is there for the Celtics to bounce back with a victory. | |||||||
05-08-22 | Storm v. Aces OVER 175.5 | 74-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker struggles to post accurate numbers during the opening week of the WNBA season. That's especially true when it comes to totals. And he's come up short with this total. Seattle scored 97 points in its opener. Las Vegas scored even more, producing 106. The Aces are going to be much better coached under Becky Harmon this season. The Over has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between the two teams. | |||||||
05-08-22 | Heat v. 76ers -125 | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
The combination of Joel Embiid back in the lineup and the 76ers being at home makes a huge difference. That was evident in Game 3 this past Friday night when the 76ers buried the Heat, 99-79. I don't see the 76ers going from 20-point winners just two days ago to losing to Miami in this next game. Embiid's return after missing the first two games of the series lifted the 76ers. Philadelphia now has the needed confidence and spark to even this series. It's this belief that has me taking the 76ers here. | |||||||
05-08-22 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning -113 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
During the past three postseasons, Tampa Bay has gone 16-0 following a playoff loss. That resiliency has been instrumental in the Lighting winning the Stanley Cup the past two years. I see that streak continuing with the Lightning hosting the Maple Leafs Sunday. Toronto opened the series with a 5-0 victory. The Lightning were flat that game. They came back to even the series with a 5-3 win on Wednesday, but then lost at home, 5-2, in Game 3 this past Friday. Tampa Bay couldn't overcome a 3-0 deficit. The Lightning did outplay the Maple Leafs for much of the last two periods, especially the third period, but the damage had been done. Tampa Bay's core, which has been together for around a decade and used to playoff highs and lows, should rebound like they always have. Toronto goalie Jack Campbell has been playing above his talent level. I can see a drop-off in his play with this game in Tampa. Having home ice also gives the Lightning the last line change. This is especially crucial for Tampa coach Jon Cooper in matching up against the Maple Leafs' upper tier line featuring superstar Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner. | |||||||
05-07-22 | Marlins v. Padres -113 | 8-0 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Nothing against Marlins starter Pablo Lopez, who I like. But at this low price, I'm getting involved with the Padres at home. Miami has lost six in a row. The Marlins have scored more than four runs just once in their last seven games. They are facing southpaw Sean Manaea here. Miami is batting below .200 versus lefties. Miami is 19-48 in its last 67 road games. | |||||||
05-07-22 | Grizzlies +7 v. Warriors | Top | 112-142 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
While I certainly expect the Warriors to shoot better than they did in their last game, I don't believe the Grizzlies are getting enough respect on the betting line. Since an opening playoff loss to the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason with the two losses each coming by one point. The Warriors have some outstanding players, but no one is playing at a higher level right now than Ja Morant. He could be in line for another huge performance with the Warriors minus a pair of their defensive standouts in injured Gary Payton II and Andre Iguodala. The Grizzlies will be without suspended Dillon Brooks, but are expected to get back big man Steven Adams. Memphis has a size advantage on Golden State. Both teams should be fresh having not played since Tuesday. All the pressure is on the Warriors returning home. Golden State has failed to cover the last four times when favored. The Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. Memphis is 16-6-1 ATS the past 23 times in an underdog role. | |||||||
05-07-22 | Avalanche v. Predators +1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
If the Predators are going to win a playoff game against the Avalanche this is their chance returning home down 2-0 in the series. This isn't a play against Colorado. It's taking a value price on the Predators, who will be primed and pumped to play their finest game. Colorado has lost its last four road contests. The Avalanche also have lost in 18 of their last 26 road games to the Predators. Nashville nearly upset Colorado in Game 2 losing, 2-1, in overtime. Goalie Connor Ingram has looked good in the series in relief of injured starter Juuse Saros. So that's a big question that has been answered for the Predators. | |||||||
05-06-22 | Oilers v. Kings UNDER 6.5 | 8-2 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
After the Kings upset the Oilers in the series opener, 4-3, the Oilers came back with a vengeance destroying LA, 6-0, two days ago. Now the scene shifts to LA. The Kings were manhandled in that Game 2 loss. They won't be at home. I'm looking for a physical, Stanley Cup type of intense, defensive game. The change in venue also is a factor. The Under has cashed in five of the Oilers' past six road games. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Kings' last five home contests. | |||||||
05-06-22 | Suns v. Mavs UNDER 219.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
The Suns have been shooting out of their minds. The result is Phoenix is 2-0 SU and ATS in this series and the combined final scores have added up 235 and 238 points. But now the series shifts to Dallas. The Zig/Zag can work on totals, too. I see that happening here in this Game 3 where the oddsmaker has now set the highest total of the series. I don't see the Suns continuing to make 57 percent of their field goals, which is their shooting percentage for the series so far. Dallas is no defensive slouch. The Mavericks ranked second in the league defensively holding foes to 104.7 points. Dallas held the Jazz to only 99 points per game in winning that first-round series. The Under has cashed 71 percent of the time during the Mavericks' last 69 home games. The Suns are strong defensively, too, ranking third in the league in defensive field goal percentage. Aside from Luka Doncic, none of the Mavericks are having a good scoring series. Besides Doncic, none of the other Dallas players can be trusted to produce strong offensive performances as the Mavericks last Phoenix's star power. | |||||||
05-05-22 | Rays v. Mariners OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Shane McClanahan and lefty Robbie Ray are big strikeout pitchers. But this total is too low especially with the bullpens expected to pitch at least one-third of the way. The Rays have a top-10 offense. They have scored 19 runs in their last three games. The Over is 7-1-1 the last nine times the Rays have faced a lefty starter. The Mariners scored just two runs in getting swept three games by the Astros. Seattle, though, was hitting into tough luck. The Mariners hitters were working the count well to set up positive situations, but a number of their hard hit balls against the Astros were right at fielder's. I expect their luck to change for the better here. | |||||||
05-05-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -130 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
I have this one marked much higher. I don't believe the oddsmaker is giving the Rockies and their starting pitcher, Antonio Senzatela, enough respect here. The right-handed Senzatela has proven he can pitch well at Coors Field. Colorado is 10-3 during the last 13 games he's pitched there. He has a 3.12 ERA in this span. The Nationals have lost 25 of the last 36 games they've gone against a righty starter. Washington starter Aaron Sanchez hasn't been good for years - and he's not good this season with a 6.75 ERA. | |||||||
05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Even by playoff standards this is a low total influenced by the absence of Joel Embiid and the Heat's 106-92 Game 1 victory. I expect both teams to score far more points now that they've had their feeling out game. The Over is 6-1 the past seven times following the 76ers failing to cover the spread during their previous game. Miami is going to get their points with Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, who is an offensive force in this series with Embiid on the sidelines. The 76ers are due to shoot much better from 3-point range after making just 6-of-34 (17 percent) in Game 1. James Harden has something to prove here. He's too good of a player to be held down. He'll get his points and assists. I don't expect DeAndre Jordan to play that much either after he had a minus 22 plus/negative rating in Game 1. Jordan is a defensive center and a strong plus for the Under. The 76ers have a much quicker tempo and are not so half-court oriented without the plodding Jordan. | |||||||
05-04-22 | Rays -117 v. A's | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
The buy sign is on for Corey Kluber and the price is low enough to back the Rays against the sinking A's. Kluber, a two-time AL Cy Young Award winner, held the Twins to one run on one hit with six strikeouts in a 6-1 win during his last start this past Friday. The A's have the fifth-lowest batting average in baseball. They've also lost five in a row. They are a bad team, much inferior to the Rays. ''Offensively, we're in a bit of a funk,'' A's manager Mark Kotsay was quoted as saying after the A's lost to the Rays last night. ''I think overall as a group, a lot of guys are probably pressing.'' Frankie Montas gets the start for Oakland. Montas is traditionally a slow starter and that's the case again this season as he has a 4.25 ERA. Tampa Bay also holds a strong bullpen edge. | |||||||
05-03-22 | Nationals v. Rockies -148 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -148 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
The Rockies' strength is beating bad teams at home. That was proven again this past weekend when Colorado swept three games from the Reds. Now the Rockies get another bad team, the Nationals, and get to face a horrible starting pitcher - Erick Fedde. Colorado starter German Marquez is due for a good game. The same can't be said for Fedde, who shouldn't be in a big league rotation. Fedde had a 5.47 ERA last season and he's been even worse this year with a 6.00 ERA. Fedde is 0-2 career-wise against the Rockies with a 9.00 ERA in four appearances, including three starts. He hasn't gone more than five innings during any of his four starts this season so a bad Washington bullpen also figures to be involved. Washington defeated the Giants in their last game this past Sunday. Prior to that, however, the Nationals had dropped nine of their last 10 games. | |||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Credit to the Bucks for upsetting the Celtics in Game, 101-89, this past Sunday. The Bucks, though, do not have a good spread record as road underdogs, nor do they have a good spread record against the Celtics having failed to cover against Boston during the previous seven meetings until Sunday. The Celtics had been playing great down the stretch. They were impressive against the Nets in their opening series, while the Bucks weren't really tested in taking out an overmatched, banged-up Bulls team. So I like Boston to bounce back at home knowing a loss would put them in a desperate 0-2 hole. The Bucks are 8-17 ATS the last 25 times as a road 'dog and missing Khris Middleton, their second-best player. | |||||||
05-03-22 | Penguins v. Rangers -135 | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
I have lots of reasons to like the Rangers at this price. Here are three of them: 1. home ice. 2. greatness of goalie Igor Shesterkin. 3. current form. The Rangers are going to be super pumped for their first home Stanley Cup game in nearly five years. The Rangers are 8-4 in their last 12 games. The Penguins are 7-11 in their past 18 games while giving up the most shots on goal during the last 10 games. This doesn't bode well for Penguins backup goalie Casey DeSmith. He'll be making his first playoff appearance with starting goalie Tristan Jarry out with a foot injury. The biggest key, though, is Shesterkin. He's been a monster this season especially at home where he compiled a 1.85 goals against average and 94 percent save percentage. Shesterkin made four starts against Pittsburgh this season and held the Penguins to four goals in four games. | |||||||
05-02-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Dallas has a tremendous track record in these situations. The Mavericks are the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. Discounting a 126-118 victory, the Mavericks held the Jazz to 95.2 points in five games while winning their series in six games against Utah. The Jazz averaged only one point fewer per game than the Suns did during the regular season. So I believe the Mavericks can hang within two possessions of Phoenix. Both teams have been idle since Thursday. They each are at full strength, too. This isn't a fade on Phoenix, but a bet-on Dallas. The Mavericks are 42-16-1 ATS during their last 59 road games against a home team with a winning percentage better than .600. Dallas has covered 10 of its last 14 road games when getting points and also is 21-8 ATS the past 29 times when playing an above .500 opponent. | |||||||
05-02-22 | Mariners v. Astros -119 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
After playing six games in Florida, the Mariners remain on the road crisscrossing to Houston. I don't like the Mariners' chances against the Astros. The price is short enough for me to back Houston. I'm not enamored with Houston's veteran starter Jake Odorizzi. But I am interested in fading Seattle lefty starter Marco Gonzales at homer-friendly Minute Maid Park. Gonzalez surrendered 29 homers last season. He's given up four so far this season. Houston is 7-2 versus southpaw starters this year. Jose Altuve is expected to come off the IL and start for the Astros. | |||||||
05-02-22 | Lightning +114 v. Maple Leafs | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 37 m | Show | |
Do you trust the Maple Leafs now that it's Stanley Cup time? I sure don't. The last time Toronto won a first-round series was 2004. They were upset in the first round by the Canadiens last season, blowing a 3-1 series lead. The teams just met on April 21. Tampa Bay blasted Toronto, 8-1, at home. The Maple Leafs were without Auston Matthews and No. 1 goalie Jack Campbell. Still, this was a 7-goal win for the Lightning. Tampa Bay has defeated the Maple Leafs seven of the last 10 times in Toronto. The Lightning hold a monster edge in net with Andrei Vasilevskiv against Campbell. | |||||||
05-01-22 | Warriors -122 v. Grizzlies | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
The Grizzlies tangled with the Timberwolves for six games before eliminating them. Minnesota blew leads of 13 or more points in all but one of those games. The Warriors have deep playoff experience. They aren't blowing any late leads like Minnesota. The Warriors also know how to win and put away opponents, unlike the Timberwolves. The Grizzlies are still on Cloud 9 after winning their first playoff series in seven years. The Warriors didn't toy with the Nuggets putting them away in five games. Stephen Curry is back to his pre-injury superstar form averaging 28 points against the Nuggets. Klay Thompson also is back to pre-injury form averaging 22 points. But it's Jordan Poole and his 21-point playoff average that makes Golden State special. | |||||||
05-01-22 | Reds v. Rockies -145 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
The Reds have the worst record in the majors and it's not even close. They are 3-18. Cincinnati has dropped nine road games in a row. I went against the Reds at Coors Field on Friday and Saturday. I see no reason to change for today's game. Colorado starter Kyle Freeland is off to a slow season at 0-3 with a 6.16 ERA. But Reds starter Reiver Sanmartin has been even worse at 0-3 with a 10.91 ERA. This is an action play for me, though, to just keep fading the Reds. | |||||||
05-01-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Jets -180 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show | |
The Jets are on a three-game win streak. They draw what should be a tired Seattle team at home in what is the final regular-season game of the season. The rest of the teams finished their regular season on Friday. This is a makeup game from an April 13 game that was postponed because of a snowstorm. Seattle concluded its home season with an emotional 3-0 victory against the Sharks this past Friday. That snapped a four-game losing streak. I doubt the Kraken will have much left to prove in this meaningless matchup. Seattle has lost 20 of its last 27 road games. Winnipeg is home and rested after beating visiting Calgary two days ago. Seattle has to make the long 1,154-mile trip with really no incentive. The Kraken aren't capable of pulling a big road upset unless they produce an ''A'' game and I certainly don't see that here. | |||||||
05-01-22 | Seattle Kraken v. Jets UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
The Jets are finishing the season playing great defense giving only two goals in their last three games. The Under has cashed in each of Winnipeg's last five games. Seattle ranks 30th in scoring. The Kraken are defensive-minded. This is the final game of the regular season, a make-up from an April 13 game that was postponed due to a snowstorm. So I doubt either team is too psyched up for this meaningless matchup. I believe the attitude will be let's just get this finished, not get anyone hurt and go on summer vacation. | |||||||
05-01-22 | Red Sox -145 v. Orioles | 5-9 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
I see the Red Sox bouncing back after suffering a 2-1 extra inning loss to the Orioles on Saturday. Baltimore's most effective relief pitcher, Jorge Lopez, went two innings to get the win in that game. So don't expect Lopez to pitch in this game if needed. Even with that victory, the Orioles are still only 18-37 during their past 55 home games. The pitching matchup is Nick Pivetta versus Jordan Lyles. Pivetta is inconsistent. But he is 6-1 career-wise against Baltimore. Lyles is just plain bad. It's a mystery how he stays in a big league rotation. He has a 5.40 ERA this season. The Orioles are likely to be missing Trey Mancini, who is dealing with bruised ribs. While the Red Sox are expected to get back slugger J.D. Martinez from a groin injury that has sidelined him for the past three games. | |||||||
04-30-22 | Reds v. Rockies -135 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
The Reds have become an auto-fade with their 27th ranked offense and 30th-ranked defense. Cincinnati is 3-17 and has lost four in a row. The Rockies defeated the Rockies by six runs at home last night. Now Colorado has its hottest pitcher going, Chad Kuhl. He's made strong adjustments to his game and is off to a 2-0 start with a 1.10 ERA. Kuhl hasn't allowed more than four hits in any of his three starts. Things don't figure to improve for the Reds in this game as they are starting fill-in pitcher Connor Overton to make his season debut. I'm not expecting much from Overton pitching at Coors Field. | |||||||
04-30-22 | Cubs v. Brewers -160 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
The Brewers' Eric Lauer may be the least appreciated starting pitcher in baseball. Lauer came on strong last season and he's continued tough this season with a 1-0 mark, 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Lauer has a great bullpen behind him, including a rested Josh Hader. Milwaukee's bats have started to awaken, too. The Brewers are averaging 7.2 runs in their last four games. The Cubs and their starter, Justin Steele, shouldn't stand in the way of another Brewer victory. Steele has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. It's questionable if he should even be in a big league rotation. | |||||||
04-30-22 | Mariners +110 v. Marlins | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
In Robbie Ray we trust. The Marlins are hot, but Seattle is an underdog and has the superior starting pitcher going here with Ray. Ray won the AL Cy Young Award last season. The lefty has a 2.12 career ERA in nine appearances against the Marlins. Ray should be able to neutralize three of the Marlins' hotter players - Jazz Chisholm, Joey Wendle and Jesus Sanchez - all of whom are lefthanded. The Marlins are 20-33 against southpaws going back to last season. The Marlins are starting Jesus Luzardo, who has a 3.77 ERA. | |||||||
04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +1.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Both teams are young and talented. The Timberwolves are down 3-2 in the series, but certainly have not been outclassed. Minnesota actually should be leading the series instead of Memphis having blown leads of 13 points or more in four of the five games. This includes a last second two-point road loss to the Grizzlies this past Tuesday in Game 5. The Timberwolves are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a defeat. They've learned enough lessons and have enough confidence to bounce back at home and defeat the Grizzlies to set up a Game 7. Karl-Anthony Towns is the best big man on the floor. The Grizzlies will be down one fewer defender against Towns with Steven Adams ruled out because of safety/health protocols. | |||||||
04-29-22 | Reds v. Rockies -112 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
The pitching matchup is Cincinnati rookie Hunter Greene versus Antonio Sezatela. Green has a 5.27 ERA. I don't think he's fully ready yet for the majors. But this is an action play for me with the major handicap being a fade on the Reds. Cincinnati is the worst team in baseball right now with a 3-16 record. The Reds are 6-21 in their last 27 road games, including 2-9 this year. The Rockies are a much better team when playing at Coors Field where once again they own a winning record. The Rockies should take care of business at home against a Reds squad that has the worst run-differential by a wide margin at minus 14. The Reds have scored the third-fewest runs in the league and are last in ERA at 5.83. Cincinnati is a total mess. This is an easy lay number to fade the Reds. | |||||||
04-29-22 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
The Bruins are the No. 4 defensive team in the NHL. The Under is 8-1-2 in the Bruins' last 11 games. The Bruins catch a break here because the Maple Leafs will be resting 60-goal scorer Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner. John Tavares could sit out, too. The Maple Leafs are doing this because they really have nothing at stake in this game. Look for both teams to play a bland, conservative game. That's because neither team wants to show anything since they might be meeting very soon again in the first round of the playoffs. | |||||||
04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | Top | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Slowly but surely the Raptors' coaching edge of Nick Nurse against Doc Rivers is exerting itself negating the 76ers' superior talent. This is a toss-up game. I believe the safest play is Under the total. The Raptors won Game 5, 103-88. Toronto has successfully slowed down both James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. Meanwhile, Joel Embiid is dealing with torn ligaments in his right thumb. Toronto has frustrated the 76ers by slowing pace. That's not going to change here. The 76ers know they have to gut out a victory. So their intensity and defensive concentration is going to be way up, too. | |||||||
04-28-22 | Devils +290 v. Hurricanes | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
The major part of this handicap is a letdown factor from Carolina. The Hurricanes have been playing extremely well winning five in a row. The latest victory, 4-3 against the Rangers two days ago, clinched the Metropolitan Division for the Hurricanes. So that sense of urgency is gone now for the Hurricanes. They accomplished what they wanted to do. Now, playing for the fourth time in six days, I don't see the Hurricanes too motivated for this matchup against the lowly Devils. New Jersey is capable of pulling off a huge upset on the road. The Devils have done that twice during the last 3 1/2 weeks beating the Golden Knights and Stars at better than plus $2.00 in each game. The Devils nearly upset the Hurricanes when they hosted them five days ago, losing 3-2 in overtime. The Hurricanes forced the overtime by scoring with less than two minutes left. | |||||||
04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
The Nuggets gained a measure of respect by beating the Warriors, 126-121, at home this past Sunday. That kept the Warriors from sweeping Denver. But now the series shifts back to Golden State where the Warriors won the first two games by an average of 18 points. I don't see the Nuggets staying within single digits of Golden State. The Warriors are peaking at the right time. They have covered eight of their last 10 games. Jordan Poole has been remarkable. No team can match the Warriors' trio of scoring from Poole, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Nuggets are without their second and third-best players, injured Jamal Murray and Michael Porter. They are 4-10 ATS the past 14 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Nuggets also have encountered little point spread success at Golden State going 2-7-1 ATS during their last 10 visits. | |||||||
04-27-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | 5-10 | Win | 106 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
The Mets do not have a good history when facing southpaws on the road losing 42 of the past 60 times in that role. New York is facing lefty Steven Matz. Matz was bombed by the Pirates in his opening start. Since then, though, he has been excellent in two starts, holding the Brewers and Reds to a combined one earned run in 10 2/3 innings with a 12-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Mets starter Carlos Carrasco has looked good in his first three starts. However, two of those outings were against the Diamondbacks and Nationals. The Cardinals are 22-9 the past 31 times when going against a righty starter. | |||||||
04-26-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 3-5 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
The Dodgers have the most feared lineup in baseball. All 12 of their victories have been by more than one run. I'm going to ride that streak against a bad Diamondbacks team that ranks among the worst hitting and fielding teams in the majors. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has been brilliant so far with a 0.69 ERA giving up only one run in three starts. He's backed by a rested Dodgers bullpen following Walker Buehler's complete game shutout victory last night. Journeyman Diamondbacks starter Zach Davies isn't going to be able to match LA's pitching. | |||||||
04-26-22 | Guardians +148 v. Angels | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
The Guardians are due for a victory. I see them getting it here in a pitching matchup of Triston McKenzie versus Patrick Sandoval. I'm high on the right-handed McKenzie, who has a 2.38 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. The free-swinging Angels are a bad fit against him. The Angels are 6-13 in their last 19 games against a righty starter. I'm not a fan of Sandoval, who has a 6.14 ERA and 1.91 ratio in two previous starts against the Guardians. The Angels are 7-15 in their last 22 home games. They also have dropped 10 of their last 14 games to the Guardians at home. | |||||||
04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals OVER 7 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
A pitching matchup of No. 5 type starters Chris Bassitt versus Jordan Hicks shouldn't have a total this low, especially now that the NL uses the DH. Bassitt is coming off a 5-2 loss to the Giants where he gave up five runs on eight hits in six innings this past Wednesday. Hicks is on a pitch count as he tries to come back from Tommy John surgery. Both teams have above average offenses. The Mets rank seventh in runs and fourth in batting average. There's a slight wind blowing out to left. The Over has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings between the two teams. | |||||||
04-26-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 233 | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
Maybe this total seems right since there were 237 points scored in the last game when the Timberwolves edged the Grizzlies, 119-118, this past Saturday. But two statistical anomalies stand out from that game. The two teams combined to shoot nearly 49 percent from 3-point range making 33 of 68 from beyond the arc while also combining to make 50 of 65 (77 percent) free throw attempts. The series is tied 2-2. This is pivotal Game 5. I'm not expecting either team to be so hot from 3-point range, nor to get to the free throw nearly as often as they did in Game 4. This is playoff basketball. There is going to be defensive intensity even from these two teams. The pace isn't going to be as fast it was during the regular season. There were only 199 points scored in Game 3. Ja Morant has been struggling because of lingering soreness from that knee injury that kept him out for 12 games toward the end of the regular season. | |||||||
04-25-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
Considering that Joel Embiid may not play, or will be limited if he does, this is getting a lot of points in a do-or-die spot for the Raptors. Toronto isn't ready to roll over after staving off playoff elimination by defeating the 76ers, 110-102, in Game 4 this past Saturday. If the Raptors wouldn't have lost in overtime in Game 3 this series would be tied 2-2 instead of the 76ers leading 3-1. The Raptors never trailed in Game 3 until overtime. Embiid is dealing with a torn ligament in his right thumb. The Raptors have covered 69 percent of the time during the past 39 times they've played an above .500 opponent. The 76ers were a better road team than home team during the regular season. | |||||||
04-25-22 | Flyers v. Blackhawks OVER 6.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
Too bad defensive teams go at it here with neither holding playoff aspirations. So it's not difficult envisioning each team producing at least three goals. Current form and numbers certainly support that. The Flyers are averaging 5 goals in their last two games. The Blackhawks are giving up an average of 4.3 goals in their last eight games. This is Chicago's first game back from a three-game West Coast trip that concluded Saturday night. The Over has cashed in each of the Blackhawks' last four home games. The Flyers rank 27th defensively allowing 3.6 goals per game. They have permitted 3 or more goals in 13 of their last 15 games. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $826 |
Dan Kaiser | $818 |
William Burns | $787 |
Tom Macrina | $650 |
Jesse Schule | $620 |
Mike Lundin | $408 |
Ricky Tran | $330 |
Ross Benjamin | $302 |
Joseph D'Amico | $253 |
Big Al McMordie | $173 |