Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-30-22 | Reds v. Rockies -135 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
The Reds have become an auto-fade with their 27th ranked offense and 30th-ranked defense. Cincinnati is 3-17 and has lost four in a row. The Rockies defeated the Rockies by six runs at home last night. Now Colorado has its hottest pitcher going, Chad Kuhl. He's made strong adjustments to his game and is off to a 2-0 start with a 1.10 ERA. Kuhl hasn't allowed more than four hits in any of his three starts. Things don't figure to improve for the Reds in this game as they are starting fill-in pitcher Connor Overton to make his season debut. I'm not expecting much from Overton pitching at Coors Field. | |||||||
04-30-22 | Cubs v. Brewers -160 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
The Brewers' Eric Lauer may be the least appreciated starting pitcher in baseball. Lauer came on strong last season and he's continued tough this season with a 1-0 mark, 2.20 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Lauer has a great bullpen behind him, including a rested Josh Hader. Milwaukee's bats have started to awaken, too. The Brewers are averaging 7.2 runs in their last four games. The Cubs and their starter, Justin Steele, shouldn't stand in the way of another Brewer victory. Steele has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. It's questionable if he should even be in a big league rotation. | |||||||
04-30-22 | Mariners +110 v. Marlins | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
In Robbie Ray we trust. The Marlins are hot, but Seattle is an underdog and has the superior starting pitcher going here with Ray. Ray won the AL Cy Young Award last season. The lefty has a 2.12 career ERA in nine appearances against the Marlins. Ray should be able to neutralize three of the Marlins' hotter players - Jazz Chisholm, Joey Wendle and Jesus Sanchez - all of whom are lefthanded. The Marlins are 20-33 against southpaws going back to last season. The Marlins are starting Jesus Luzardo, who has a 3.77 ERA. | |||||||
04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +1.5 | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Both teams are young and talented. The Timberwolves are down 3-2 in the series, but certainly have not been outclassed. Minnesota actually should be leading the series instead of Memphis having blown leads of 13 points or more in four of the five games. This includes a last second two-point road loss to the Grizzlies this past Tuesday in Game 5. The Timberwolves are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games following a defeat. They've learned enough lessons and have enough confidence to bounce back at home and defeat the Grizzlies to set up a Game 7. Karl-Anthony Towns is the best big man on the floor. The Grizzlies will be down one fewer defender against Towns with Steven Adams ruled out because of safety/health protocols. | |||||||
04-29-22 | Reds v. Rockies -112 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
The pitching matchup is Cincinnati rookie Hunter Greene versus Antonio Sezatela. Green has a 5.27 ERA. I don't think he's fully ready yet for the majors. But this is an action play for me with the major handicap being a fade on the Reds. Cincinnati is the worst team in baseball right now with a 3-16 record. The Reds are 6-21 in their last 27 road games, including 2-9 this year. The Rockies are a much better team when playing at Coors Field where once again they own a winning record. The Rockies should take care of business at home against a Reds squad that has the worst run-differential by a wide margin at minus 14. The Reds have scored the third-fewest runs in the league and are last in ERA at 5.83. Cincinnati is a total mess. This is an easy lay number to fade the Reds. | |||||||
04-29-22 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
The Bruins are the No. 4 defensive team in the NHL. The Under is 8-1-2 in the Bruins' last 11 games. The Bruins catch a break here because the Maple Leafs will be resting 60-goal scorer Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner. John Tavares could sit out, too. The Maple Leafs are doing this because they really have nothing at stake in this game. Look for both teams to play a bland, conservative game. That's because neither team wants to show anything since they might be meeting very soon again in the first round of the playoffs. | |||||||
04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | Top | 132-97 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Slowly but surely the Raptors' coaching edge of Nick Nurse against Doc Rivers is exerting itself negating the 76ers' superior talent. This is a toss-up game. I believe the safest play is Under the total. The Raptors won Game 5, 103-88. Toronto has successfully slowed down both James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. Meanwhile, Joel Embiid is dealing with torn ligaments in his right thumb. Toronto has frustrated the 76ers by slowing pace. That's not going to change here. The 76ers know they have to gut out a victory. So their intensity and defensive concentration is going to be way up, too. | |||||||
04-28-22 | Devils +290 v. Hurricanes | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
The major part of this handicap is a letdown factor from Carolina. The Hurricanes have been playing extremely well winning five in a row. The latest victory, 4-3 against the Rangers two days ago, clinched the Metropolitan Division for the Hurricanes. So that sense of urgency is gone now for the Hurricanes. They accomplished what they wanted to do. Now, playing for the fourth time in six days, I don't see the Hurricanes too motivated for this matchup against the lowly Devils. New Jersey is capable of pulling off a huge upset on the road. The Devils have done that twice during the last 3 1/2 weeks beating the Golden Knights and Stars at better than plus $2.00 in each game. The Devils nearly upset the Hurricanes when they hosted them five days ago, losing 3-2 in overtime. The Hurricanes forced the overtime by scoring with less than two minutes left. | |||||||
04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors -8.5 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
The Nuggets gained a measure of respect by beating the Warriors, 126-121, at home this past Sunday. That kept the Warriors from sweeping Denver. But now the series shifts back to Golden State where the Warriors won the first two games by an average of 18 points. I don't see the Nuggets staying within single digits of Golden State. The Warriors are peaking at the right time. They have covered eight of their last 10 games. Jordan Poole has been remarkable. No team can match the Warriors' trio of scoring from Poole, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Nuggets are without their second and third-best players, injured Jamal Murray and Michael Porter. They are 4-10 ATS the past 14 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Nuggets also have encountered little point spread success at Golden State going 2-7-1 ATS during their last 10 visits. | |||||||
04-27-22 | Mets v. Cardinals +106 | 5-10 | Win | 106 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
The Mets do not have a good history when facing southpaws on the road losing 42 of the past 60 times in that role. New York is facing lefty Steven Matz. Matz was bombed by the Pirates in his opening start. Since then, though, he has been excellent in two starts, holding the Brewers and Reds to a combined one earned run in 10 2/3 innings with a 12-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Mets starter Carlos Carrasco has looked good in his first three starts. However, two of those outings were against the Diamondbacks and Nationals. The Cardinals are 22-9 the past 31 times when going against a righty starter. | |||||||
04-26-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | 3-5 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
The Dodgers have the most feared lineup in baseball. All 12 of their victories have been by more than one run. I'm going to ride that streak against a bad Diamondbacks team that ranks among the worst hitting and fielding teams in the majors. Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin has been brilliant so far with a 0.69 ERA giving up only one run in three starts. He's backed by a rested Dodgers bullpen following Walker Buehler's complete game shutout victory last night. Journeyman Diamondbacks starter Zach Davies isn't going to be able to match LA's pitching. | |||||||
04-26-22 | Guardians +148 v. Angels | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
The Guardians are due for a victory. I see them getting it here in a pitching matchup of Triston McKenzie versus Patrick Sandoval. I'm high on the right-handed McKenzie, who has a 2.38 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. The free-swinging Angels are a bad fit against him. The Angels are 6-13 in their last 19 games against a righty starter. I'm not a fan of Sandoval, who has a 6.14 ERA and 1.91 ratio in two previous starts against the Guardians. The Angels are 7-15 in their last 22 home games. They also have dropped 10 of their last 14 games to the Guardians at home. | |||||||
04-26-22 | Mets v. Cardinals OVER 7 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
A pitching matchup of No. 5 type starters Chris Bassitt versus Jordan Hicks shouldn't have a total this low, especially now that the NL uses the DH. Bassitt is coming off a 5-2 loss to the Giants where he gave up five runs on eight hits in six innings this past Wednesday. Hicks is on a pitch count as he tries to come back from Tommy John surgery. Both teams have above average offenses. The Mets rank seventh in runs and fourth in batting average. There's a slight wind blowing out to left. The Over has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings between the two teams. | |||||||
04-26-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies UNDER 233 | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
Maybe this total seems right since there were 237 points scored in the last game when the Timberwolves edged the Grizzlies, 119-118, this past Saturday. But two statistical anomalies stand out from that game. The two teams combined to shoot nearly 49 percent from 3-point range making 33 of 68 from beyond the arc while also combining to make 50 of 65 (77 percent) free throw attempts. The series is tied 2-2. This is pivotal Game 5. I'm not expecting either team to be so hot from 3-point range, nor to get to the free throw nearly as often as they did in Game 4. This is playoff basketball. There is going to be defensive intensity even from these two teams. The pace isn't going to be as fast it was during the regular season. There were only 199 points scored in Game 3. Ja Morant has been struggling because of lingering soreness from that knee injury that kept him out for 12 games toward the end of the regular season. | |||||||
04-25-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 103-88 | Win | 100 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
Considering that Joel Embiid may not play, or will be limited if he does, this is getting a lot of points in a do-or-die spot for the Raptors. Toronto isn't ready to roll over after staving off playoff elimination by defeating the 76ers, 110-102, in Game 4 this past Saturday. If the Raptors wouldn't have lost in overtime in Game 3 this series would be tied 2-2 instead of the 76ers leading 3-1. The Raptors never trailed in Game 3 until overtime. Embiid is dealing with a torn ligament in his right thumb. The Raptors have covered 69 percent of the time during the past 39 times they've played an above .500 opponent. The 76ers were a better road team than home team during the regular season. | |||||||
04-25-22 | Flyers v. Blackhawks OVER 6.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
Too bad defensive teams go at it here with neither holding playoff aspirations. So it's not difficult envisioning each team producing at least three goals. Current form and numbers certainly support that. The Flyers are averaging 5 goals in their last two games. The Blackhawks are giving up an average of 4.3 goals in their last eight games. This is Chicago's first game back from a three-game West Coast trip that concluded Saturday night. The Over has cashed in each of the Blackhawks' last four home games. The Flyers rank 27th defensively allowing 3.6 goals per game. They have permitted 3 or more goals in 13 of their last 15 games. | |||||||
04-25-22 | Astros -130 v. Rangers | 2-6 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
The Astros have dominated the Rangers winning 40 of the past 59 times. I expect that domination to continue this season. This price still is low enough to back Houston in a pitching matchup of Framber Valdez versus Dane Dunning. Valdez had his way with the Rangers last season going 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Dunning isn't going to be able to slow down a strong Houston lineup especially with a weak bullpen behind him. Dunning is 0-1 with a 7.50 ERA in two career appearances against Houston. He has a 5.68 ERA this season. | |||||||
04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
Once again a team played great in the first game after losing a star player. That pattern fit the Suns in Game 3 of their series against the Pelicans when they won, 114-111, on the road minus superstar Devin Booker this past Friday. That gave the Suns a 2-1 series lead. Booker remains out with a hamstring injury. The Pelicans won't be feeling sorry for the Suns. This is the season for New Orleans. New Orleans center Jonas Valanciunas had an off-game and underrated forward Jaxson Hayes was ejected in the second quarter. Larry Nance Jr. also didn't play well. I expect those three to at least hold their own in this pivotal Game 4. A loss here at home by the Pelicans puts them down 3-1 in the series with the next game in Phoenix. I believe the Pelicans will make this a tough series on the Suns - and that requires a victory here. Phoenix has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been favored. The Suns were far less effective during the regular season when they were missing Booker. This time it catches up to them. | |||||||
04-24-22 | Warriors -4 v. Nuggets | 121-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
After losing by a combined 36 points in the first two games of this series, the Nuggets came out hard at home in Game 3. Denver stepped up and Golden State regressed. Yet the Warriors still won, 118-113. The Nuggets remain without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, their second and third-best players. The Warriors are peaking. I rode the Warriors in Game 3 and I'm sticking with them to close out the series here. The Nuggets comprehend that no team in NBA playoff history has come back from a 3-0 deficit and they certainly aren't going to be the first. Stephen Curry, Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson have been unstoppable. They're averaging a combined 76 points a game in the series. Draymond Green is an elite defender and he's been a bother to Nikola Jokic, who doesn't have enough help around him with Murray and Porter unable to play. | |||||||
04-23-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +3 | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies have rallied to go up 2-1 in this series. But I don't see a significant talent gap between these two teams. The Timberwolves, in fact, have three of the four best players on the court in Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell. The strength of Memphis is its depth. But that's not such a factor here early in the postseason. This series has a certain Zig-Zag feel to it. The Timberwolves should be the more fired-up team after letting a 26-point lead slip away in Game 3 and trying to protect home-court. That was Minnesota's playoff inexperience showing in blowing that lead. The Timberwolves should learn from that to maintain their intensity. Towns had a monster Game 1. He's been quiet the past two games. He's the best big man on the court by far and is due for another huge performance. | |||||||
04-23-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +3.5 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
This line would be quite different if the Raptors didn't blow a 17-point lead and lose, 104-101, in overtime to the 76ers at home this past Wednesday. That put Toronto down 3-0 in the series. So obviously the Raptors are in must-win mode being on the verge of elimination. The 76ers never led in regulation during Game 3. It was a tough beat for those taking plus two like myself because the 76ers won by three when Joel Embiid made a 3-pointer with less than a second left. I have confidence in Nick Nurse, though. I trust his Raptors will come out and play hard while the 76ers have to be feeling very fat after stealing Game 3. There's a good chance the Raptors get star rookie Scottie Barnes back for this matchup. He's missed the last two games with an ankle injury. Embiid, meanwhile, is dealing with a sore right thumb. He's expected to play, but he was wearing a brace on his right hand and thumb during Friday's practice. He might have a torn ligament in his thumb. | |||||||
04-22-22 | Capitals -1.5 v. Coyotes | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
Unless they're playing the Blackhawks, the Coyotes aren't even competitive. They are 2-14 in their last 16 games. One of those victories was against the Blackhawks. The other win came against the Sharks. Arizona just lost by one goal to Chicago in its last game this past Wednesday. The Coyotes lost all the other games during this span by multiple goals. Arizona has lost eight in a row with six of those defeats occurring by four or more goals. The Coyotes have been outscored by 34 goals during their last eight games. The Capitals should be in a kill mood after a tough 4-3 overtime loss to the Golden Knights two days ago. The Capitals are one of the best road teams in the league. They are 7-2 in their last nine away contests. Washington is fighting for playoff seeding so this game has meaning. | |||||||
04-22-22 | Suns -120 v. Pelicans | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
There's two ways of looking at Devin Booker's hamstring injury, an injury that will keep out of this game. The Suns lose their top scorer and emerging superstar, who was at the top of his game. But with that injury, the pressure now falls completely on the Pelicans to win this home game. I don't believe the Pelicans are ready for that against this elite foe that had the best record in the NBA. The Pelicans have failed to cover six of the last eight times they've played an above .500 opponent. The Suns have excellent backcourt depth to fill-in for Booker. Phoenix's intensity is sure to be sky-high after being upset in Game 2 and losing Booker. I don't see the youthful Pelicans matching that especially with their lack of big-game, playoff basketball experience. Chris Paul is going to control the tempo. The Suns will tighten ranks in this first game without Booker to pull out the victory. | |||||||
04-22-22 | Bucks -135 v. Bulls | 111-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show | |
The Bucks lost more than a game when they were upset at home by the Bulls, 114-110, this past Wednesday. Khris Middleton suffered a sprained knee injury and is out. But the Bucks know how to survive and win without key players. They did it last season when Giannis Antetokounmpo was hurt. Milwaukee is a deep team with various interchangeable parts. The Bulls got the Bucks' full attention with that victory. The Bucks will win here. Jrue Holiday is overdue for a better performance in this series and Milwaukee has a much deeper bench than Chicago. Milwaukee has covered nine of the last 11 times it has been road chalk. The Bucks almost always cover in Chicago, too, going 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games against the Bulls. | |||||||
04-22-22 | White Sox -103 v. Twins | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Healthy now, this is the year of Michael Kopech. I really believe that. I drafted him way ahead of his average draft position in my Rotisserie baseball league and so far Kopech is living up to his high ceiling with a 1.00 ERA through two starts. Kopech has given up just three hits - only one extra base hit - in nine innings. Opponents are batting .107 against him. Look for Kopech to continue his hot hand against the Twins. He's 1-0 lifetime against Minnesota with a 1.29 ERA. The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who has a 3.27 ERA. Ober has potential, too, but he's not the prospect Kopech is. Ober has a 4.76 lifetime ERA against the White Sox in five starts. This isn't a good situational spot either for the Twins returning home after concluding a seven-game road trip yesterday. | |||||||
04-21-22 | Blues v. Sharks OVER 6 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
The Over has cashed in each of the Blues' last nine road games. I see that trend continuing here with at least seven goals being scored. St. Louis has been on fire offensively during the last 13 games averaging 4.9 goals. The Sharks have a below average defense. San Jose has allowed four or more goals in seven of its last 11 games. St. Louis has permitted 11 goals during its last three games. The Sharks have looked better offensively during this last week. | |||||||
04-21-22 | Warriors -120 v. Nuggets | Top | 118-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
Bad energy, low morale and injuries to their second and third-best players. That's what the out-gunned Nuggets are going through. The Warriors, on the other hand, are peaking at just the right time with Jordan Poole looking like a superstar alongside fellow superstar Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The results have been Golden State blowout victories by 16 and 20 points in the first two games of this series. Yeah, this Game 3 figures to be closer with the Nuggets coming home. But asking the Nuggets to end their six-game playoff losing streak, which began last season, is asking too much. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. aren't suddenly going to appear and change the Nuggets' fortunates. Nikola Jokic is great, but he can't do it alone. And now the Warriors figure to have ace defender Andre Iguodala back for this matchup after he missed Game 2. The Warriors are rolling. I don't expect them to lose here so laying a short money line price makes sense. | |||||||
04-21-22 | Cardinals v. Marlins -125 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
The Marlins have trouble with the Cardinals. They've lost the first two games of the series to them. That makes eight straight losses to St. Louis. But circumstances and Pablo Lopez should put an end to that skid. The price is right to back St. Louis with Lopez going against what should be a St. Louis bullpen game. Lopez is at his best at home and during the first half of the season. He's 1-0 with a 0.87 ERA this season. Career-wise, he has a 2.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP when pitching at LoanDepot Park, formerly Marlins Park. Jordan Hicks is scheduled to make his first start for St. Louis after 114 relief appearances. Hicks is in comeback mode after his season ended in early May last year because of a serious elbow injury. He's not expected to pitch deep into the game. | |||||||
04-20-22 | Blackhawks v. Coyotes OVER 6.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
Two losing teams who lack defense playing a meaningless late season game. That's a nice recipe for an Over especially when those teams are the Blackhawks and Coyotes. Chicago has gone Over in its last five games. The Blackhawks have permitted 4.8 goals during this span. Arizona has been even worse giving up an average of 6.1 goals during its last seven games. The Blackhawks have enough scoring talent and offensive-minded defensemen who can take advantage. The youth-minded Coyotes should be excited to play the Blackhawks knowing this a winnable game for them and they can open their attack instead of trying to keep from being embarrassed. | |||||||
04-20-22 | 76ers v. Raptors +2 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
Even though they are down 2-0 in their series against the 76ers, I see no panic from the Raptors and their coach, Nick Nurse. I like Nurse a lot. Enough to feel confident backing the Raptors to beat the 76ers in Game 3 now that they are back in Toronto after losing the first two games in Philadelphia. Even though the Raptors are more banged-up than the 76ers, I don't see a talent gap between the two teams. Toronto actually outscored the 76ers by nine points during the fourth quarter of Game 2. Nurse is known for making shrewd adjustments and the Raptors should be super intense while the 76ers can't help but subconsciously let up. The 76ers failed to cover in their last five regular season road games. They also are 1-5 ATS during their last six visits to Toronto. | |||||||
04-20-22 | Rays v. Cubs +101 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Fatigue, an overworked bullpen and playing on a grass surface all work against the Rays in this matchup. So does facing Marcus Stroman. This is enough to put me on the Cubs. Tampa Bay hasn't been sharp with a 6-6 record. This will be the Rays' 13tht straight day of playing. Their first off day comes Thursday. Their best reliever, Andrew Kittredge, had to work two innings to get a save on Tuesday. The Rays are 2-6 in their last eight games on grass, which is an off-surface for them. Stroman is solid. I prefer him at home against Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen. | |||||||
04-19-22 | Wolves v. Grizzlies -6.5 | 96-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Still fresh from their play-in game victory against the Clippers, the Timberwolves ambushed the rusty Grizzlies in Game 1. Memphis hadn't played in six days before losing, 130-117, this past Saturday to Minnesota. I don't expect the Grizzlies to go down 0-2 in the series losing both games at home. The Timberwolves are much improved. But the Grizzlies did win the second-most games in the NBA. They are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games even with that first game loss. Minnesota was 2-8 ATS the past 10 times as a road 'dog before surprising Memphis. The Timberwolves pulled down 11 more rebounds and were more physical than the Grizzlies in Game 1. Memphis isn't going to be intimidated at home. Grizzlies big man Steven Adams is a much better defender than he showed in Game 1. I see a physical, intense all-out effort from the Grizzlies to even this series while the Timberwolves, in the playoffs for only the second time in the last 18 years, are fat and happy having accomplished getting a split in Memphis. | |||||||
04-19-22 | Bruins v. Blues OVER 6 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
There hasn't been a hotter scoring team than the Blues during the last 29 years in the NHL. St. Louis has scored at least four goals in each of its last 12 games. That's the longest NHL stretch since the 1992-93 season. The Blues are averaging 5.1 goals during their past dozen games. The Bruins are a strong defensive team. But the Blues can't be ignored especially playing at home and with Boston minus injured defenseman Hampus Lindholm and starting goalie Linus Ullmark. Boston has given up eight goals in its last two games. The Bruins fire off the second-most shots in the NHL. The Over has cashed nine of the last 12 times the teams have played in St. Louis. | |||||||
04-19-22 | Wild v. Canadiens +1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
The Wild are in danger of suffering a letdown after clinching a playoff spot this past Sunday during their last game. All of Minnesota's last three games have been decided by one goal. The Wild would be 0-4 in their last four road games if laying 1 1/2 goals. Montreal shouldn't lack motivation and effort after an embarrassing, 8-4, home loss to the Capitals in their last game this past Saturday. The Canadiens have not been playing well, but they are capable of getting up for big games. They upset the Lightning as larger underdogs than this earlier this month. | |||||||
04-18-22 | Hurricanes -1.5 v. Coyotes | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
Arizona has become an auto-fade on the puck line. The combination of injuries, inexperience and just wanting to get their season finished have rendered the Coyotes noncompetitive. The Coyotes are 2-13 in their last 15 games with their only victories during this time frame coming against non-playoff teams the Blackhawks and Sharks. Arizona has lost six in a row. All of these defeats have been by at least four goals! In fact, 12 of the Coyotes' last 13 losses have occurred by multiple goals. The Hurricanes can't afford to sleep against the Coyotes being in a tight race with the Rangers for the Metropolitan Division title. Carolina has beaten the Coyotes during seven of their last nine visits. | |||||||
04-18-22 | Phillies v. Rockies +152 | 1-4 | Win | 152 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Like many teams the Phillies struggle in Colorado. They are just 2-9 in their last 11 games at Coors Field. Yet they are mid-sized favorites here starting Aaron Nola. I find this line to be mispriced because of that. Nola wasn't good last season. He had a 4.63 ERA and surrendered 26 homers. He hasn't been good this season in two starts with a 6.75 ERA. Chad Kuhl gets the start for Colorado. He has a 2.08 ERA this season and is 2-0 lifetime with a 2.70 ERA in five appearances against Philadelphia, including three starts. | |||||||
04-18-22 | Rays v. Cubs +133 | 2-4 | Win | 133 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm sure by the end of the season the Rays will have a much better record than the Cubs. But right now Tampa Bay doesn't deserve to be such a large road favorite against the Cubs. The Rays are 2-5 in their last seven games. The Cubs are back home for the first time since their opening series against the Brewers when they took two of three. The pitching matchup is Shane McClanahan versus Kyle Hendricks. I like McClanahan, but not enough to back him in this spot with the Rays not playing well. | |||||||
04-17-22 | Braves v. Padres -126 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Yu Darvish can mix in a clinker with gems. But he's worth this short price at home against the Braves, who are going with Byrce Elder, their No. 6 starter. Darvish had a 3.38 home ERA with a 0.95 WHIP last season. The prideful Darvish shut out the Diamondbacks in six innings during his first start. However, he was bashed by the Giants in his second start, not even making it to the second inning. I see him bouncing back here. | |||||||
04-17-22 | Blues v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
The Blues have scored four or more goals in each of their last 11 games setting a franchise record. St. Louis is averaging 4.9 goals during this 11-game span. The Blues may not draw Nashville's starting goalie either with Juuse Saros working Saturday. The Predators are likely to be missing defensemen Jeremy Lauzon, too. He was injured in the Predators' 4-3 victory against the Blackhawks on Saturday. The Over is 7-0-1 during the Blues' past eight road contests. | |||||||
04-17-22 | Astros +100 v. Mariners | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
The Astros are the superior team so I'm interested in backing them in this price range. The pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy versus rookie Matt Brash. Urquidy has proven solid. He has a 1.80 ERA this season and a 3.38 career ERA versus the Mariners in four appearances. Brash is an intriguing prospect, but he has yet to prove himself. The Mariners will be without one of their better hitters as Mitch Haniger is on the COVID-19 list. Houston has dominated the Mariners in Seattle winning 26 of the past 38 times there. | |||||||
04-16-22 | Cubs v. Rockies -121 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
The price is cheap enough to back the Rockies at home against a bad Cubs team. Colorado is pitching Antonio Senzatela. The righty knows how to pitch in high altitude going 3-3 with a 3.97 ERA in 15 starts at Coors Field last season. The Cubs are 6-15 in their last 21 games versus righty starters. This has the makings of a bullpen game for the Cubs. They are going to start Mark Leiter, who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2018. I'm not expecting much from Leiter and a host of Cubs relievers facing a Rockies lineup that always hits much better when playing in Coors Field. | |||||||
04-16-22 | Raptors +4.5 v. 76ers | Top | 111-131 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
The 76ers finished ahead of the Raptors during the regular season, but I'm far from convinced they are the superior team. Toronto went 3-1 against the 76ers during the regular season covering all four games. The latest was on April 7 in Toronto. Despite missing OG Anunoby and Fred VanVleet, the Raptors defeated the 76ers, 119-114. VanVleet is Toronto's second-leading scorer and top assists guy. Anunoby is fourth in scoring on the Raptors. Toronto is 24-17 on the road. That's the same record as the 76ers' home mark. The Raptors have covered seven of their last nine road games and are 26-9 (74 percent) ATS the last 35 times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The Raptors enter this matchup 8-1 excluding a meaningless regular-season finale loss to the Knicks. Both teams haven't played in six days. I give the Raptors a coaching edge with Nick Nurse against Doc Rivers. | |||||||
04-15-22 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 9 | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
It took three games, but the Dodgers' have their bats going. LA has scored 23 runs in its last three games. They're facing second-year Vladimir Gutierrez and a suspect Cincinnati bullpen. The Reds have faced good starting pitchers in each of their first seven games, including Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler and Charlie Morton. Now they get to drop down in class going against bottom-of-rotation Tony Gonsolin, who rarely goes deep into games. Gonsolin gave up three runs to the Reds in 2 1/3 innings during his lone appearance against them last season. The Over has cashed the last four times the Dodgers have hosted the Reds. | |||||||
04-15-22 | Cubs v. Rockies -113 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm looking for the Rockies to bounce back at home after losing the series opener to the Cubs. Colorado is going with its best pitcher, German Marquez. He looked great in his first start this season, holding the powerful Dodgers to one run on three hits in seven innings pitching in Coors Field. Marquez, an All-Star last season, is 27-18 lifetime at Coors with a 4.67 ERA. Cubs starter Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher, too, but I'm willing to lay this short price to get Marquez and Colorado at home. The Rockies are 27-11 the past 38 times they've been favored while the Cubs are 19-49 the last 68 times they've been a 'dog. | |||||||
04-15-22 | Hawks -130 v. Cavs | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
These teams have gone the opposite way. Atlanta is 26-14 in its last 40 games. The Cavaliers are 9-18 in their last 27 games, including 3-9 SU and ATS in their last dozen games. I don't expect a sudden reversal of fortunes. The Hawks have covered seven of their last nine. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times as favorites. Atlanta blew out Charlotte by 29 points in its opening postseason game this past Wednesday. The Cavaliers lost to the Nets by seven points in its opening play-in game. The Hawks were strong as a playoff road team last season winning and covering 60 percent of their away matchups, including winning and covering their road opener in each of their series against the Knicks, 76ers and Bucks. Atlanta and Cleveland have played four times this season. The Hawks have won and covered during the past three meetings with their average victory margin being 11.6 points. | |||||||
04-14-22 | Cubs v. Rockies -118 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
The Rockies are tough at home. The Cubs are weak against lefty starters. So a combination of Chicago playing at Coors Field and facing southpaw Kyle Freeland does not bode well for the Cubs. Colorado is 50-34 in its last 84 home games. The Cubs are 9-21 in their last 30 games when going against a southpaw starter. They have lost 13 of the past 17 times (76 percent) taking on a lefty starter on the road. The oddsmaker is giving too much respect to Justin Steele, who looked good for the Cubs in his first start this season but has yet to prove anything in the majors. Freeland is a reliable starter for Colorado and he knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The Cubs have been held to seven runs during their last three games. | |||||||
04-13-22 | Kings v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 105 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
This is a kill spot for the Avalanche. Colorado is tied with Florida for the most points in the NHL at 110. The Avalanche have won six in a row. They've been idle since Saturday. The Kings halted a three-game losing streak with a 5-2 victory against the hapless Blackhawks Tuesday night. The Kings' reward? They go into high altitude to face the rested and ready Avalanche. Not only are the Kings playing without rest, but it's their third game in four days and they have a cluster injury problem on defense. One of the defensemen out for LA is Drew Doughty. The Avalanche has dominated the Kings winning the past eight times against them. | |||||||
04-13-22 | Hornets v. Hawks UNDER 236 | 103-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
We saw with last night's play-in game that the defensive intensity is increased during the postseason when the Clippers and Timberwolves went Under by 18 points. Yes, these are two different teams. But the same reasoning holds true especially with a large total like this. The Hawks are spearheaded by Trae Young. The Hornets have the tall guards to bother him, especially LaMelo Ball. Young managed only nine points when the teams last met on March 16. The Hornets won that contest, 116-106. That game went Under by 18 points. The Under cashed in three of the team's four meetings this season. Going back to last season, the Under has cashed in six of the last seven games in the series. The Hornets have been a strong Under team when taking points. The Under is 21-7 the past 28 times Charlotte has been a 'dog. | |||||||
04-13-22 | Mets +106 v. Phillies | 9-6 | Win | 106 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Max Scherzer isn't slowing down on his way to the Hall of Fame. Aaron Nolan wasn't good last season. He wasn't good in his opening start this season. The Phillies are averaging two runs in their last three games. So I'm happy to take a small plus price on the Mets. Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young Award winner, had a 2.46 ERA last season. This included a 3-0 mark with a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings against the Phillies. Career-wise, Scherzer is 14-4 versus Philadelphia with a 2.50 ERA in 25 career starts. The current projected Mets' starting lineup is batting a cumulative .140 against Scherzer. I trust Scherzer far more than Nola. The Mets' bullpen has been solid, too, through the first five games with a 3.44 ERA. Nola had a 4.63 ERA last year, way up from the 3.28 ERA he compiled in 2020. Nola has a 6.00 ERA in one start this season after giving up four runs - including two homers - in six innings against the A's, who are considered to be one of the worst teams in the majors. | |||||||
04-12-22 | Clippers +3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
I like the way the Clippers are playing. LA has won five in a row beating the Bucks and Suns during this span. Paul George has looked great in five games since returning from a 3-month elbow injury. Norman Powell has looked good, too, this month after missing March with a foot injury. The Clippers have that needed postseason experience reaching the Western Conference Finals last season. Minnesota last competed in the postseason four years ago. The Clippers have held their last four opponents to 98 points a game. The Timberwolves have allowed 128 points to their last seven foes. LA is 3-1 against Minnesota this season winning those games by an average of more than 19 points. | |||||||
04-12-22 | Mariners +111 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
There will be times to play on the White Sox. This isn't one of them. Not in a pitching matchup of Matt Brash versus Vince Velasquez. Brash is the Mariners' top pitching prospect. He struck out 12 during 9 1/3 innings in spring training. He draws a White Sox lineup that is missing several key bats, including Yoan Moncada and AJ Pollock. But this handicap also is a fade on Velasquez, who I now consider a lower-end starter. Velasquez was 3-9 with a 6.30 ERA in 25 games with the Phillies and Padres last season proving unreliable in 21 starts. The Mariners have a tremendous knack for winning close games. They are 7-2 the past nine times as underdogs and 21-8 in their last 29 road games. | |||||||
04-11-22 | Padres v. Giants -139 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -139 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
Remember Nick Martinez? Can't blame you if you don't. He pitched for the Rangers from 2014-2017 before going to Japan. Martinez, who was 17-30 with a 4.77 ERA for the Rangers, is back in the majors and getting the start here for San Diego. I much prefer the Giants at home going with Alex Wood. San Diego is stepping way up in class going from playing the worst team, the Diamondbacks, to the best. San Francisco had the most regular season wins in the majors last year. They are 44-18 in their last 62 games when favored at home. The Padres are 9-23 during their last 32 road games. Wood has been very solid. He was 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA last year. Wood was tremendous last September in his final four starts posting a 1.38 ERA during that span. Wood won't have to deal with Fernando Tatis Jr., who is out with a wrist injury. | |||||||
04-11-22 | Jets v. Canadiens +125 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
The Jets don't deserve to be a road favorite against the Canadiens. Winnipeg escaped lowly Ottawa winning, 4-3, on Sunday. Prior to that, the Jets had lost four in a row. The Canadiens are 4-8 in their last 12 games. However, Montreal has been extremely competitive against upper level competition. The Canadiens lost in overtime to the Bruins and Stars. They also fell by one goal to the Maple Leafs and Panthers during this span. Montreal has won five of the past six meetings against the Jets and is the more rested team. Winnipeg is playing for the third time in four days and fourth time in six days. The Jets had a tough one-goal home loss to the Avalanche in overtime this past Friday and then had another tough game against the Senators on Sunday. The Jets also will be without Mark Scheifele, who is second on the team in goals and points. He suffered an upper body injury against the Senators. | |||||||
04-11-22 | Brewers -139 v. Orioles | 0-2 | Loss | -139 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
Same old Orioles. Baltimore is 0-3 to begin this season getting swept by the Rays by a combined margin of 28-9. The Orioles struck out 37 times in their 3-game series against the Rays and were 2-for-24 with runners in scoring position. The Rays are an excellent team. So are the Brewers. Milwaukee got its confidence up nipping the Cubs, 5-4, Sunday after losing the first two games of the series. The pitching matchup is Adrian Houser versus Bruce Zimmermann. Houser is one of the more underrated backend starters. He went 10-6 with a 3.22 ERA last season. Houser had a 2.50 ERA in day games last season. He's backed by a deep and talented bullpen, one of the best in baseball. Zimmermann had a 5.04 ERA last season. That hideous ERA was even worse in day action last season at 6.23 ERA and was 5.33 in April. Baltimore remains a terrible home team at 28-58 during its past 86 home contests. | |||||||
04-10-22 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
The pitching matchup is Tanner Houck versus Jordan Montgomery. Houck has a 1.86 career ERA in five appearances, including three starts, against the Yankees. Montgomery gave up three runs or fewer in 23 of his last 30 starts last season. Both bullpens are strong and deep, especially the Yankees. This is a night game with the temperatures forecast to be in the mid 40's. Tripp Gibson is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's considered to be one of the better Under umps in the league with a wide strike zone. | |||||||
04-10-22 | Stars v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
The Stars should be up for this contest after an embarrassing 3-1 home loss to the Devils on Saturday. Dallas had scored 3 or more goals in eight of its last 10 games prior to that game. The Blackhawks rank 26th defensively. They've surrendered at least 3 goals in eight of their last 10 games. The Over is 11-5-1 in Chicago's last 17 games. The Over has cashed seven of the past eight times in this series. | |||||||
04-10-22 | Stars -150 v. Blackhawks | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
I'm expecting the Stars to produce a big effort after playing terrible in a 3-1 home loss to the Devils on Saturday. Dallas coach Rick Bowness ripped his team following that loss saying not one player had a good game. The Stars were 7-3 in their previous 10 games. They are 9-2 the last 11 times they've been a road favorite. The rebuilding Blackhawks have dropped their last six games. Chicago has managed just four goals in its last four games. | |||||||
04-10-22 | Astros -105 v. Angels | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
The Astros are the stronger team with better depth and they should have their main bats in after resting several key players on Saturday night. Angels starter lefty Jose Suarez has a career ERA of 5.70. The Astros are 7-3 the past 10 times going against a southpaw starter. Houston starter Jose Urquidy is solid. He went 8-3 with a 3.62 ERA and had a 0.99 WHIP last season. The Angels are just 3-12 in their last 15 home games. | |||||||
04-10-22 | Marlins v. Giants -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
This is my Max Unit Sunday Special. The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last season. While I don't believe the Giants can match that mark this season they still rate a strong edge against the Marlins, who were 67-95 last year. Miami has been terrible on the road going 14-42 in its last 56 away games. The pitching matchup is southpaw Trevor Rogers versus Anthony Desclafani. The Giants were 27-20 against lefty starters in 2021. Rogers has potential, but I like Desclafani better especially now that he's away from Cincinnati and throwing in a pitcher's park. Desclafani had a career season in his first season in San Francisco last season going 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA. He was at his best at home, too, going 8-3 with a 3.10 ERA. | |||||||
04-10-22 | Indians -102 v. Royals | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
The Guardians have held the Royals to four runs during the first two games of this series. Yet Cleveland is 0-2. The Royals are far from a power. So they shouldn't be favored when Cleveland has a starting pitched edge, which they do here. I'll take righty Cal Quantrill against Kris Bubic. Quantrill was 8-3 with a 2.89 and 1.18 WHIP last year. Bubic was 6-7 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The Royals were 48-64 against right-handed starters last season. | |||||||
04-09-22 | Kings v. Clippers OVER 225.5 | Top | 98-117 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
I'm expecting a loose game devoid of defense with the Kings playing the string out and the Clippers locked into the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs. The Clippers are averaging 127.2 points per game during their last five games. Paul George is rounding into shape averaging 22.5 points in four games since returning from an elbow injury. The Kings ranked 29th defensively giving up 115.8 points a game. They've been even worse during their past 10 games allowing 119.7 points during this span. The Clippers have surrendered at least 115 points in six of their last eight games. | |||||||
04-09-22 | White Sox -128 v. Tigers | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
The White Sox blew Friday's opener against the Tigers. But they are much the superior team. I expect them to bounce back today with Dylan Crease. Crease has dominated the Tigers going 11-0 with a 1.82 ERA against them. Casey Mize goes for Detroit. He's talented, but hasn't been a big innings pitcher. That puts the Tigers' vulnerable bullpen into play. | |||||||
04-08-22 | Hornets v. Bulls -130 | 133-117 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Both teams are in the postseason. But the Bulls should be playing with intensity as this is a get right game for them in their regular season home finale. Chicago has dropped three in a row. Those losses, however, occurred to three Eastern Conference powers - the Heat, Bucks and Celtics. Now the Bulls are dropping way down in class. Chicago has covered in its past five meetings against Charlotte, including both times this season. | |||||||
04-08-22 | Cavs +8.5 v. Nets | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Playoff seedings are at stake here. So the Cavaliers are going to be up for this game. That's enough reason for me to stay on the fade-the-Nets-as-chalk bandwagon. How bad have the Nets been against the spread whey laying points at home? They are 1-20 ATS the last 21 as home favorites! If taking more than eight points, the Cavaliers would have covered 73 percent of their last 22 games. | |||||||
04-08-22 | White Sox -129 v. Tigers | 4-5 | Loss | -129 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
The price is low enough to get involved with the White Sox especially facing lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. The White Sox crush lefties with a lineup that leans heavily on right-handed batters. The White Sox have won 40 of their last 58 games when going against a southpaw starter. Rodriguez is on the downside of his career. He had a 4.74 ERA last season. The Tigers should be improved, but the White Sox are easily the class of the AL Central Division. Chicago is pitching its ace, Lucas Giolito. | |||||||
04-07-22 | Oilers v. Kings UNDER 6.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a big game with the Kings trying to take second place from the Oilers in the Pacific Division. So I'm expecting a more conservative, tight-checking game than perceived. Both teams have been getting good goalie play. This is the Oilers' third West Coast game. They've given up just one goal in each of the first two games on their trip against the Ducks and Sharks. LA has been in excellent defensive form, too. The Kings have surrendered seven goals in their last three games. That's going against high-powered attacks facing the Flames twice and Jets once. | |||||||
04-07-22 | Mets v. Nationals +120 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
The Nationals are a home 'dog to the Mets. That's not surprising considering New York has Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. Neither of those two studs is pitching, though. Instead the Mets are going with second-year Tylor Megill, who was 4-6 with a 4.52 ERA in 18 starts last year. I'm projecting a nice comeback season for Washington starter Patrick Corbin. So I'm going to take a plus price with Washington. Corbin was terrible last season. But the southpaw appears to have straightened things out looking great during his two spring training starts posting a 0.00 ERA. Corbin struck out 10 in nine innings while permitting just six hits. The Mets were 18-33 versus lefty starters last year. The National League is using the DH now. The Nationals signed one of the best DH's in Nelson Cruz. | |||||||
04-07-22 | Blazers +17 v. Pelicans | 94-127 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
I understand it's difficult to get behind the decimated Trail Blazers, losers of 18 of their last 20 games, even with a point spread in this range. But the Pelicans are not some elite team and this isn't a kill spot for them. New Orleans has clinched a spot in the play-in tournament. The Pelicans will meet the Spurs in that game. The Pelicans also haven't been at home since March 27. They just concluded a four-game West Coast trip and then go right back on the road to play the Grizzlies in Memphis on Saturday. So focus could be an issue for them. The Pelicans also could be minus their best big man as Jonas Valanciunas is questionable with an ankle injury. | |||||||
04-06-22 | Thunder +17.5 v. Jazz | 101-137 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
We've been down this road before with Oklahoma City. The Thunder have been tremendous this season on the road and as an underdog. The pattern fits again in this matchup especially with the Jazz slipping past the Grizzlies, 121-115 in overtime, last night. That victory clinched a playoff spot in the top six for Utah. The Thunder are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 away contests. They have covered eight of the last 10 times when getting points. Utah is 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times when playing without rest. The Jazz host the Suns Friday. So the backdoor should swing open if Utah were to build a big early lead. | |||||||
04-06-22 | Nets -6 v. Knicks | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
The Nets have been far better on the road this season and they'll be taking the Knicks seriously in this matchup. Brooklyn is battling for playoff positioning. The Knicks are out of playoff contention and don't have their best player, injured Julius Randle. The last time the Knicks played an opponent this good was six games ago. The Nets have defeated the Knicks during the past six times. Brooklyn didn't play well in a 118-105 home win against the Rockets last night. But Kyrie Irving did break out of his shooting slump. I'm expecting the Nets to play better against New York. The Nets are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road contests, while the Knicks have only covered two of their last 12 home games. | |||||||
04-06-22 | Mavs v. Pistons +8.5 | Top | 131-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
The Mavericks are coming off a highly-satisfying, 118-112, road upset win against the Bucks. So a letdown could be in store. The Mavericks encounter the hottest point spread team in the league - the Pistons. Detroit is an amazing 19-3 ATS in its last 22 games. The Pistons are 8-1 ATS as a home 'dog and 10-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents. So have to ride the Pistons while they are this point spread-hot. | |||||||
04-05-22 | Oilers v. Sharks OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
No way are the Sharks slowing down Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. These two superstars are hot and so are the Oilers, who have scored 4 or more goals in 11 of their last 13 games and 5 or more goals in eight of their past 11 games. Former Sharks star Evander Kane is now on the Oilers and he'll be highly motivated to score, too. San Jose has permitted 14 goals in its last three games. The Sharks are playing the string out, but they have scored 4 goals in each of their last three home games. The Over has cashed six of the last seven times the Sharks have hosted the Oilers. | |||||||
04-05-22 | Bucks -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
The Bucks dominate the Bulls when playing in Chicago covering 10 of the last 11 times. Look for that trend to hold up in this meeting. Milwaukee is in circle-the-wagons mode having lost two in a row, both at home. The Bucks are at full strength and are at their best laying points on the road covering seven of the past nine times as road chalk. The Bulls are struggling defensively and are only 1-10 ATS the past 11 times when taking on foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Bulls have allowed an average of 128.5 points during their last two games. Milwaukee has beaten the Bulls in all three games this season, including 126-98 on March 22 during the past meeting. | |||||||
04-05-22 | Rockets +18 v. Nets | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
Not even against the Rockets can the Nets get away with trying to cover this large of a spread. Brooklyn just isn't playing well right now. The Nets are 11-22 in their last 33 games. This includes going just 8-7 since superstar Kevin Durant returned from a knee injury. The Nets are 17-21 at home. They are a dreadful 4-23 ATS as a home favorite. Kyrie Irving can play in home games now, but he's in a shooting slump making just 26.6 percent of his last 105 shots from the floor during the past five games. The Rockets have been competitive lately going 2-4. Their four losses during this span have come by a combined 18 points for an average loss of six points. | |||||||
04-05-22 | Cavs v. Magic +8.5 | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show | |
Realistically, the Cavaliers really don't have much to play for as they just about are locked in as one of the play-in tournament teams in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland isn't playing well with six losses in its last eight games. The Cavaliers continue to be missing their two best big men and keys to their defense with Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley both out. So taking this many points with the home 'dog Magic makes sense. Orlando is on a six-game losing skid, but is a more respectable 9-10 ATS in its last 19 games. The Magic should be counted on to provide an all-out effort after being embarrassed by 30 points by the Knicks this past Sunday. The Magic are coached by Jamahl Mosley, who is a former Cavaliers assistant. Cleveland has failed to cover the past four times when favored and is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against Orlando. | |||||||
04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
Despite all the upsets, the NCAA Tournament championship game comes down to two familiar teams - North Carolina and Kansas. No surprise the Jayhawks have reached the title game being the No. 1 Midwest seed. Kansas deserves to be here. The Jayhawks rank in the top 30 in scoring and have the 20th best 3-point defense. They blew out Villanova in their semifinal game Saturday. The Jayhawks can be devastating both in the paint and from the perimeter. North Carolina isn't as strong defensively and relies on its 3-point shooting. So this isn't a good matchup, nor spot, for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has way overachieved being a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels reached their pinnacle with an upset semifinal victory against arch-rival Duke. Each of the Tar Heels' last five defeats have come by nine or more points. So a Kansas blowout would not be a surprise. | |||||||
04-04-22 | Coyotes v. Blues -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Arizona is out of playoff contention. Yet the Coyotes still could be fat and happy having upset the Blackhawks, 3-2, in overtime on the road Sunday. The Coyotes are without their top goal scorer and points leader, injured Clayton Keller. Arizona is 2-7 in its last nine games. The Blues are an overtime loss to the Oilers away from being 4-0 in their last four games. | |||||||
04-03-22 | Pelicans +2.5 v. Clippers | 100-119 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
The Clippers are well satisfied coming off a franchise regular season scoring record in a 153-119 victory against the Bucks, who rested their three best players. That win clinched a playoff spot for the Clippers. The Pelicans are 3 1/2 games out of the eighth playoff spot. New Orleans has really come on especially on the road covering 12 of its last 15 away contests. CJ McCollum has been a great and underrated addition to the Pelicans. | |||||||
04-03-22 | Mavs v. Bucks UNDER 227.5 | Top | 118-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
After clinching a playoff spot, the Mavericks met the Wizards this past Friday. It wasn't pretty. The Wizards buried the Mavericks, 135-103. Expect a much more focused and far stronger defensive effort from the Mavericks, who give up the second-fewest points in the NBA at 104.7 and rank fourth in 3-point defense. This is what Dallas coach Jason Kidd said after the embarrassing loss to the Wizards: ''We have to get back to the details of our defense, and that's what we're built on. When you clinch, there's a time to relax, and I think we relaxed. We didn't play very well. Luka (Doncic) scored the ball, but again defensively, we got to get back to the way things were.'' The Bucks sat out four of their top defenders in their last game. That was this past Friday. The Bucks paid the price losing, 153-119, to the Clippers. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez are all expected to return for this matchup. The Bucks should be playing with a huge chip on their shoulder after their humiliating 34-point loss to the Clippers. Two things to note, too. The Mavericks have been playing at the second-slowest pace during the last 10 games. This also is an early start time, another plus for the Under. | |||||||
04-02-22 | North Carolina +4.5 v. Duke | 81-77 | Win | 100 | 50 h 29 m | Show | |
Duke often is overvalued. I find that to be the case once again here. The Tar Heels knocked off Duke, 94-81, as 11-point road 'dogs on March 5 in Mike Krzyzewski's final home game. So I'm not buying into the Tar Heels being an underdog in New Orleans on a neutral court. If Duke were laying four or more points to North Carolina during the team's past 10 meetings, the Blue Devils would be 2-8 ATS. North Carolina has come on strong, winning 16 of its last 19 games. The Tar Heels have defeated many elite foes during this span, not just Duke. Among North Carolina's victories were wins against UCLA, Baylor, Virginia, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Marquette and surprising St. Peter's. Duke ranks 13th in the nation in field goal percentage at 48.9 percent. Yet Duke has shot far better during its four NCAA Tournament games never dipping below 52 percent from the floor. The Blue Devils are shooting a combined 53.8 percent from the floor during their last four games. I can't see Duke sustaining that sizzling shooting especially given the tough shooting environment in the spacious New Orleans Superdome. The Tar Heels have stepped up their defense, too, holding their last two opponents - St. Peter's and UCLA - to a combined average of 57.5 points. | |||||||
04-02-22 | Nets -130 v. Hawks | 115-122 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
The Nets have proven much stronger on the road than at home this season. I see the Nets bouncing back after a tough, 120-119, overtime home loss to the Bucks this past Thursday. Brooklyn is 23-16 away from home, including 8-2-1 ATS during its past 11 road games. The Nets' last road game was a 15-point victory against the Heat on March 26. The Hawks are off a blowout victory against the Cavaliers. Trae Young suffered a right groin strain in that game, although he finished the contest and played well. Still, if he's not at 100 percent it's an extra bonus. The Hawks are 4-12 ATS following a victory. The Nets have defeated the Hawks in four of the last five meetings, including both games this season. | |||||||
04-02-22 | Villanova v. Kansas UNDER 134 | Top | 65-81 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 50 m | Show |
Villanova has gone Under in eight of its last nine neutral site games. Look for that trend to continue with this game set for the spacious Louisiana Superdome. The Wildcats like to play slow. That strategy certainly isn't going to change facing Kansas, a top-30 scoring team, and with the Wildcats minus their second-leading scorer, Justin Moore. He suffered an Achilles tear in the Wildcats' 50-44 victory against Houston in Villanova's last game on March 26. Kansas has held seven of its last eight foes to 65 or fewer points. The Under has cashed in seven of the Jayhawks' last 10 games. | |||||||
04-01-22 | Raptors v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 102-89 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Toronto needs to be careful here. The Raptors are fat and happy having just concluded a 4-0 homestand with the last two games being a blowout of the Timberwolves and a huge overtime win against the Celtics. Now the Raptors take to the road to face the lowly Magic. The last time the Raptors were on the road they lost by 14 points to the Bulls on March 21. Orlando has covered six of the last eight times it has been a 'dog. Toronto is 4-10 ATS the past 14 times playing below .400 opponents. Both meetings this season have been close. The Raptors edged the Magic, 110-109, back in late October and Orlando defeated the Raptors, 103-97, on March 4. | |||||||
03-31-22 | Clippers v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 130-135 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
Paul George played for the first time in three-plus months against the Jazz this past Tuesday helping the Clippers defeat Utah. LA rallied from 25 points to win, 121-115. George looked great in scoring 34 points in 31 minutes. Three things about that, though. The game was played in LA. The Clippers had lost five in a row before that victory and George still may not have his full conditioning. The Clippers are 1-5 in their last six road games, 2-4 ATS, with their lone victory during this span coming against the lowly Pistons by four points. The Clippers lost by 12 points to the Nuggets and by 29 to the Jazz during their past two away contests. If George isn't at peak efficiency - and it's hard to imagine he would be playing in just his second game back - the Bulls would have the three best players on the court in DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Chicago is 26-10 at home. The Bulls are 23-7 ATS the past 30 times as a home favorite. They beat the Raptors by 14 points and Cavaliers by 10 during their last two home contests. The Clippers are 16-23 on the road. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times when facing an above .500 team. | |||||||
03-30-22 | Golden Knights v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
I fully expect each of these teams to register at least three goals. Las Vegas has scored 5 or more goals in four of its last six games, including producing 11 goals the past two games. Seattle ranks 27th defensively and 29th in penalty kill. The Over has covered 20 of the last 28 times the Golden Knights have played a sub .500 opponent. Seattle has picked up its offense. The Kraken have scored 3 or more goals in six of their last eight games. Seattle has scored at least four goals in five of those games. The Kraken are likely to face Las Vegas third-string rookie goalie Logan Thompson. The Over has cashed eight of the last 11 times Seattle has been a home 'dog. | |||||||
03-30-22 | Suns v. Warriors UNDER 224.5 | Top | 107-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
Given the star power on these respective teams, it's not surprising the oddsmaker has put out a large total. Truth be told, though, these are a pair of top-eight defensive clubs with a history of going Under in this series as the low side has cashed 10 of the past 12 times. The Suns could be reducing minutes for their starters as they've already clinched home-court advantage throughout the playoffs. Phoenix just held the 76ers to 104 points three days ago in its last game. That was five points below the 76ers' season average. Golden State managed only 95 points in its last game, two days ago against the Grizzlies. Stephen Curry remains out, but the Warriors have back Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala. These are pluses for the Under, though. I'd rate Green and Iguodala as the Warriors' two best defensive players. | |||||||
03-30-22 | Hawks v. Thunder +12.5 | 136-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
The Hawks aren't some elite team that can cover margins like this. In fact, their point spread record is terrible given these circumstances while the Thunder have a tremendous ATS mark. Atlanta is 2-12 ATS following a victory. The Hawks have failed to cover in seven of their last nine road games. Twice in the last three weeks the Hawks have been favored by double-digits. They didn't cover either time. The Hawks are not playing well defensively giving up 116.5 points during their last five games. Oklahoma City has the second-best point spread mark in the NBA at 46-25-4 for 65 percent. The Thunder have multiple injuries, but can be counted on to play hard. The Hawks host the Cavaliers on Thursday and then host the Nets on Saturday. Those are more challenging games for the Hawks. So the backdoor could swing open for the Thunder if the Hawks were to build a big lead. | |||||||
03-29-22 | Washington State v. Texas A&M UNDER 136 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 114 h 9 m | Show |
The NIT has reached its semifinals. That means the four remaining teams play at Madison Square Garden. That's a huge plus for the Under as college teams unfamiliar with the Garden's large arena and difficult shooting background have trouble scoring. So I'm expecting a huge defensive matchup between Washington State and Texas A&M. Washington State ranks 64th defensively giving up 65.3 points. The Cougars have held four of their last five opponents to 63 or fewer points. Texas A&M holds foes to an average of 66.7 points. The Aggies have given up an average of 60.8 points in their last six games. Both teams are below average in field goal percentage. Washington State ranks 321st in field goal shooting. Texas A&M ranks 241st in 3-point accuracy and 268th in free throw percentage. | |||||||
03-29-22 | Senators v. Predators OVER 6 | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
The Over has cashed 20 of the last 28 times the Predators have been favored. Nashville is a large favorite today hosting Ottawa. The Predators have scored 4 or more goals in eight of their last 10 games. The only two times they didn't reach four goals was a couple of West Coast games. The Senators have picked up their scoring lately. They've produced at least three goals in seven of their last 10 games. | |||||||
03-29-22 | Flyers v. Wild OVER 6.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
The Wild have scored 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 13 games, including each of their last six games. They are home here against a Philadelphia defense that ranks 25th and 29th in shots on goal. The Flyers have surrendered at least five goals in three of their last four games. The key is can the Flyers' offense contribute to this total going Over? I believe they can averaging 3.75 goals during their last four games. The Over is 7-2 the past nine times the Flyers have played on one day's rest. | |||||||
03-29-22 | Pistons +14 v. Nets | 123-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
It just may be the best angle going in the NBA: The Detroit Pistons are 15-1 ATS the past 16 times as an underdog for 94 percent! The Nets are a terrible home favorite covering only five of the past 28 times in that role for 18 percent. This is enough for me to ride the Pistons and fade the Nets. | |||||||
03-29-22 | Canadiens v. Panthers OVER 6.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
The Panthers return home ready to put on a show leading the NHL in goals and goals at home. Only three times in their last 24 games have the Panthers failed to produce at least three goals. The Canadiens have come on. They've scored 3 or more goals in 16 of their last 19 games. This has been an Over series with the high side cashing five of the last seven times, including just five days ago when the teams last met with seven goals being produced. | |||||||
03-28-22 | Thunder v. Blazers UNDER 223 | 134-131 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
This is the third meeting between the two teams this season. There were 179 points scored the first time and 189 points scored during the second matchup. I don't expect many points either this time around with each team devoid of their best scorers. Oklahoma City has been missing its leading scorer, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He could be shut down for the season due to an ankle injury. Portland is down its top three scorers with Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons and Jusef Nurikic all out. The Trail Blazers just lost forward Trendon Watford to a knee injury this past Friday. Watford had been averaging 15.4 points this month. The Trail Blazers are averaging only 100 points during their last three games. | |||||||
03-28-22 | Southern Utah +8 v. Fresno State | Top | 48-67 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
I understand why Fresno State is such a large favorite here. The Bulldogs are an elite defensive team, playing at home and going against a Big Sky Conference opponent. But that doesn't mean this point spread is right. Southern Utah is on a roll having fun and enjoying one of its finest seasons with a 23-11 mark. The Thunderbirds have been sizzling in reaching the semifinals of The Basketball Classic by averaging 80.6 points in posting victories against Kent State, UTEP and Portland. The Thunderbirds are 89-for-161 from the floor in the tournament shooting 55.2 percent from the field. The Thunderbirds averaged 78.8 points during the regular season, 26th-best in the country and 13 points more per game than Fresno State. The Bulldogs are one of the top defensive teams in the country. But they haven't demonstrated that during the tournament giving up 71 and 74 points during their last two games after holding foes to an average of 58.4 points entering this tournament. Fresno State hasn't been playing that well going 5-7 in its last 12 games. The Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS the past six times as a home favorite and 2-9 ATS the last 11 times when facing an above .500 opponent. | |||||||
03-28-22 | Sabres v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Buffalo has picked up its scoring lately producing either 3 or 4 goals in each of its last four games. The Sabres face a Blackhawks squad devoid of dependable goaltending now that Marc Andre-Fleury is gone. Chicago has allowed at least 3 goals in 13 of its past 15 games. The Blackhawks, though, have scored 4 goals in each of their last four games. The Over is 9-2-1 in Chicago's last 12 games. | |||||||
03-28-22 | Magic +9.5 v. Cavs | 101-107 | Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
The Magic are proving feisty in this role covering five of the last six times they've been an underdog. Cleveland's defense has slipped a great deal since big man Jarrett Allen was lost due to injury. Bottom line here is that the Cavaliers aren't playing well enough to lay this large of a number. They are 3-6 SU in their last nine games. It has been 20 games since the Cavaliers last won a game by more than nine points. | |||||||
03-27-22 | Hornets +7 v. Nets | Top | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
This handicap is simple. The Hornets are playing well and have been huge money-makers on the road. The Nets are off a big Saturday night road victory against the Heat. They are at their point spread worst as a home favorite. Charlotte is 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in its last seven games. Among the Hornets' victories during this span are wins against the Jazz, Mavericks and Hawks. Charlotte is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road contests. Brooklyn has performed much better away from home. The Nets are 16-19 at home. The Hornets have a better road mark at 18-18 than Brooklyn does at home. | |||||||
03-27-22 | Coyotes v. Jets OVER 6 | 1-2 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
Arizona has given up 3 or more goals in each of its last eight games. The Coyotes have permitted 4 goals in each of their last four games. I don't see their defense getting turned around on the road against the Jets. Winnipeg has produced 4 or more goals in five of its last seven games. Discounting a 4-0 shutout of Las Vegas, the Jets have given up an average of four goals during their last four games. They have surrendered at least 3 goals in 19 of their last 21 games. So the Coyotes should be in line, too, to help this total get Over. | |||||||
03-27-22 | Miami-FL v. Kansas -5.5 | Top | 50-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a bad matchup for Miami due to Kansas' height, athleticism and transition defense. The Hurricanes thrive in transition. That's not going to happen against the Jayhawks, though. Providence hung against Kansas in its 66-61 loss this past Friday, by getting 16 offensive rebounds. Miami doesn't have the size to do that. The Hurricanes aren't good rebounders on either side of the court ranking 311th in defensive rebounds. Kansas is plus 32 on the boards during the NCAA Tournament. Miami will need to make its share of 3-pointers. That hasn't been happening for the Hurricanes. They are 13-of-40 from beyond the arc during the tournament. | |||||||
03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
Arkansas has knocked off outstanding teams all season, culminating with the Razorbacks taking down Gonzaga. All the Razorbacks do is win games - 18-3 in their last 21 - and cover spreads - 15-5-1 ATS during this span. I get the Mike Krzyewski narrative that things are fated for the Blue Devils to win the national championship in this Krzyewski's final season. I admit, too, that I get a little suspicious whenever I see a referee smile at Krzyewski. But I have to go with my numbers and matchup analysis. And it doesn't add up to the Blue Devils being favorites in this point spread range let alone favorites at all. Duke bettors often have to deal with inflated lines. The Blue Devils have failed to cover seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games. Duke is as talented as ever. The Blue Devils don't have that much experience, though. Musselman devised an effective plan to limit Gonzaga star Chet Holmgren. The Razorbacks held Holmgren to 11 points. They held the Zags to nearly 20 points below their season average. Musselman has had a day and a half to come up with something to thwart Duke star Paolo Bachero. I trust him and I trust Arkansas' defense. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $1,072 |
Tom Macrina | $601 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
William Burns | $288 |
Ricky Tran | $269 |
Big Al McMordie | $234 |
Joey Tron | $165 |
Jesse Schule | $21 |
Tim Michael | $18 |