Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-30-21 | Southern Miss v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 48 | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
Discount a 37-0 victory against Grambling, an FCS opponent, and Southern Mississippi hasn't scored more than 19 points all season. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 14.1 points. Southern Mississippi rushes for only 2.5 yards a carry and its QB's have combined to throw 11 interceptions and just seven TD's. The Golden Eagles are second to last in the nation in yards per play. Middle Tennessee State is tied with Iowa for the most takeaways with 20. The Golden Eagles, though, are better defensively. Their defensive numbers are skewed by giving up 63 points to Alabama. Middle Tennessee State ranks 104th in yards gained. Weather could factor here, too. Rain is expected with winds in the 12-20 mph range. | |||||||
10-30-21 | Rutgers -117 v. Illinois | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
Rutgers has become a respectable Big Ten team under Greg Schiano. The Scarlet Knights can't compete with the conference elites, but they can beat the lower tier teams such as Illinois especially in this instance given the situation and the Illini's QB situation. Illinois is off a huge nine overtime victory against Penn State. The Illini were 24-point road 'dogs in that game. Unfortunately for the Illini they lost their quarterback, Artur Sitkowski, in that game to a broken arm. Brandon Peters replaces Sitkowski. Peters has starting experience, but he's a downgrade. Rutgers has a top-50 scoring defense despite having played Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. | |||||||
10-29-21 | Clippers v. Blazers -3 | 92-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
The Trail Blazers have short revenge here. They were buried, 116-86, on the road by the Clippers just four days ago. Damian Lillard and Portland got back on track rebounding to win impressively at home two days ago beating Memphis, 116-96. The Trail Blazers were sharp in their previous home game, too, defeating the Suns, 134-105. I see the Trail Blazers motivated and ready to destroy a disjointed Clippers team that has not found an identity without Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers' lone victory was the one against Portland. Lillard had an off-shooting night in that game making just 4-of-15 field goal attempts. I don't see that happening again. Despite Paul George playing well to begin the season, the Clippers are 1-3. They just lost, 92-79, at home to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday. That's highly troubling. | |||||||
10-29-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -20 | Top | 20-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
There are two winless FBS football teams - Arizona and UNLV. The Rebels have lost 13 straight games. They aren't going to end that losing skid at Nevada-Reno. The answer is yes because of the makeup of these two teams and a huge edge in talent for the Wolf Pack. UNLV's strength is running the ball. Charles Williams is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West Conference. This is no secret to the Wolf Pack. They are going to stack the line and bring their safeties up to key on Williams and UNLV's ground attack. The Rebels have a pair of inexperienced freshmen quarterbacks. Neither of whom has demonstrated any consistency passing downfield. Nevada's passing attack is too strong for the Rebels to slow down. Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong is a pro prospect. The Wolf Pack rank third in the nation in passing yards. Strong has multiple excellent receiving targets. UNLV ranks 123rd out of 130 FBS teams in pass defense efficiency. The Rebels give up a staggering 71.2 percent completion percentage and 8.7 yards per attempt. Strong has completed 70.6 percent of his throws with a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Rebels only have seven sacks and five takeaways. They can't count on a pass rush, nor takeaways to keep them in the game. Because of their poor passing attack, the Rebels are in big trouble when they fall behind. UNLV averages fewer than 20 points a game and ranks 123rd in total yards. UNLV's defense gives up 33.9 points a game, which ranks 117th. Strong should have no trouble lighting up the Rebels' porous defense. UNLV doesn't have the passing attack to stay within three touchowns of Reno. The Wolf Pack are 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games. | |||||||
10-29-21 | Hornets +5 v. Heat | 99-114 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
The Hornets remain below the radar. If not for an overtime loss to the Celtics, the Hornets would be 5-0 SU and ATS. They are leading the NBA in scoring at 121.2 points per game and are 2-0 on the road. Miles Bridges could be the most improved player in the league. He's averaging 26.2 points. Miami is the top defensive team in the league. But Charlotte has balanced scoring with four players averaging more than 14 points. It's an added bonus for Charlotte if Terry Rozier can play after missing the last four games with an ankle injury. He's questionable. The Heat rank No. 2 in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage. The Heat could be in letdown mode after an impressive road victory in an underdog role against the Nets two days ago. | |||||||
10-28-21 | Spurs +7 v. Mavs | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
The Spurs' record shows 1-3. But it's a good 1-3 as San Antonio played tough against the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers, a game it should have won but lost in overtime. Gregg Popovich was pleased with the effort and the performances, which is good enough for me. The Mavericks are in transition under new coach Jason Kidd, who I find to be an overrated coach yet he keeps getting hired. I much prefer the Mavericks as underdogs not favorites. Dallas is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times when playing a below .500 foe. The Spurs have been excellent money-makers when on the road going 15-6-1 ATS. | |||||||
10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals OVER 50 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
The Cardinals rank fourth in the NFL in points scored per game at 32.1. That's legitimate with Kyler Murray having an MVP-type season. Arizona ranks first in the NFL in fewest points allowed per game at 16.3. That's not legitimate. Yes, the Cardinals' defense is much improved. But it's not the dominating unit that the statistics show. Arizona has permitted just 29 points in its last three games. Those matchups, though, were against the 49ers, Browns and Texans. The Cardinals faced two rookie quarterbacks during this span - Trey Lance in his starting debut and overmatched Davis Mills - along with a banged-up Baker Mayfield, who probably shouldn't have played against the Cardinals in what was one of his worst performances ever. Mayfield couldn't hit open receivers all game against Arizona. The Packers won't have Davonte Adams and Allen Lazard. If Marquez Valdes-Scantling has to miss a fifth straight game due to a hamstring injury, Green Bay will be without its three top wideouts. Normally this would create a huge problem. That problem isn't the mess the marketplace believes it is in driving the line up to a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers still has weapons. Green Bay has outstanding wide receiver depth. Rodgers has been great since Week 2 with 17 all purpose touchdowns and just one interception during his last six games. By the way, the Packers are 6-0 since 2019 in games Adams has missed. The Cardinals will get Chandler Jones back, but J.J. Watt won't play. I have complete confidence that Rodgers will put up his share of points helping this total go Over.
The Packers holding Washington to 10 points last Sunday is highly misleading. Washton marched up and down the field on Green Bay picking up 430 yards while averaging 6.1 yards per play. Taylor Heinicke just made too many goal line mistakes to take advantage. The Packers have allowed the second-most quarterback rushing yards. That bodes well for double-threat Murray. | |||||||
10-28-21 | Flames v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
The Flames are averaging 4.2 goals during their last four games. They get to face backup Pittsburgh goalie Casey DeSmith, who has a 4.92 goals against average. The Penguins rank seventh in scoring despite not having Sidney Crosby yet and having had to go against superstar goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, who held them to one goal. Discount that game against the Lightning and Vasilevskiy and the Penguins would be averaging 3.6 goals in five games. | |||||||
10-27-21 | Braves v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
I can easily see each team scoring at least four runs in this Game 2 World Series matchup. The Braves beat the Astros, 6-2, for a total of eight runs in yesterday's Game 1. But the teams combined for 20 hits while leaving 18 men on base. Atlanta hit the third-most homers in the majors. The Braves are a top-eight offense. They are averaging 5.1 runs during their last six games against good pitching. Houston has the best offense in baseball. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. They have scored 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 14 games. The starters are Max Fried, who has a 3.78 ERA in three playoff starts this season, against Jose Urquidy, who looked bad in his only postseason start giving up six runs on five hits and two walks in 1 2/3 innings against the Red Sox on Oct. 18. | |||||||
10-27-21 | Braves +107 v. Astros | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
The Astros are home, but they're in trouble in this second game already down 1-0 in the World Series. Atlanta is on house money and has the better starting pitcher going today plus a bullpen that has been pitching out of its mind. Max Fried held a lot of promise entering the season and he came through in big fashion down the stretch. Fried continued his hot run with two of three strong pitching performances in the playoffs. He's backed by a dominant bullpen that is still fresh at this early stage of the World Series. I'm not high on Astros starter Jose Urquidy. He was the forgotten man during the playoffs. His only postseason appearance came back on Oct. 18 against the Red Sox and it was bad. Urquidy allowed six runs, of which five were earned, in just 1 2/3 innings. He hasn't pitched since. | |||||||
10-27-21 | Pacers v. Raptors | 100-118 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Toronto isn't going to be very good this season. The Raptors are especially lower tier without Pascal Siakam, who is their main offensive weapon. Indiana is the better team. The Pacers hold a frontcourt edge with Domantis Sabonis and shot-blocker supreme Myles Turner. Rookie Chris Duarte is off to a hot start and Malcolm Brogdon is one of the most underrated players in the NBA. Fred VanVleet is the Raptors' main cog with Siakam out. VanVleet is turnover-prone and shoots a very low percentage from the floor. I like Brogdon to handle him. The Pacers are stepping down in class after defeating the Heat this past Saturday and hanging tough in a loss to the defending champion Bucks two days ago. The Raptors are 0-3 at home. They've lost to the Wizards, Mavericks and Bulls by an average of 8.6 points a game. Toronto is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight home contests going back to last season. The Pacers have been excellent in this situation going 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 road games versus opponents with a losing home mark. | |||||||
10-26-21 | Wild v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
Minnesota's defense is struggling. The Wild have surrendered 13 goals in their last three games. The Wild, though, are averaging four goals per game during their last three games. The Canucks have scored four goals in each of their last two games. Conor Garland has been hot for Vancouver with eights points on the season. The Over is 8-2-1 the past 11 times the teams have met in Vancouver. | |||||||
10-26-21 | Warriors v. Thunder +9.5 | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Sometimes you have to back an ugly underdog when the spot is right in the NBA. That's the case in this matchup. Oklahoma City is 0-3. The Thunder were blown out by the Jazz and Rockets during their first two games this season. They improved in their last game, a 12-point home loss to the 76ers. They are getting good scoring from guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and rookie Josh Giddey. Those two will be motivated to go against Stephen Curry. But the basis of this handicap is a fade on the Warriors, who are fat and happy with a 3-0 mark. This is their best start since 2015-16. The Warriors are on the road for a second straight game. Following this matchup they return to the Bay Area to begin an eight-game homestand. So you have to wonder about their focus as it's a definite letdown spot for the Warriors. | |||||||
10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
There may be some high-scoring games in this World Series. Just not in this Game 1. The pitching matchup is lefty Framber Valdez versus Charlie Morton. Valdez is tough on opponents unfamiliar with him because of his effective curveball and sinker. He mixes them well. Valdez was dominant in his last start holding the Red Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings last Wednesday. The Braves batted .239 against lefty pitching during the regular season. That ranked them 24th. They were 23rd in on base percentage versus southpaws. The Astros have been swinging hot bats. But they haven't played since Friday, a span of four days. That's the longest the Astros have been idle since the All-Star break back in mid-July. Morton is a big-play pitcher. He's had World Series experience with the Astros and Rays during the last five years. He is 7-4 with a 3.45 ERA in 16 playoff appearances, including 15 starts. Morton is backed by a rested Braves' bullpen that was great against a potent Dodgers lineup. Will Smith, A.J. Minter and Jesse Chavez combined to shut out the Dodgers in their 12 2/3 innings with 12 strikeouts. Tyler Matzek was dominant in Game 6. Luke Jackson was outstanding during the regular season. | |||||||
10-25-21 | Blazers v. Clippers -3 | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
The Clippers, minus Kawhi Leonard, have shown heart. They just haven't shown victories. LA is 0-2 for the first time in 11 years. A slow start from the Clippers was not unexpected since they don't have Leonard and the new starters didn't log much time together during preseason. Still, the Clippers nearly beat the Warriors on the road coming from 19 points down before losing, 115-113. The Clippers fell behind the Grizzlies by 16 points yet made a comeback before falling, 120-114. So LA has fight. The Clippers just need to knock down more shots because they've had open looks. I expect that to happen here against the Trail Blazers, who aren't good defensively and didn't look good in preseason. This is Portland's first road game of the season. The Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS during their last four road games against the Clippers. LA has the backcourt defenders in Reggie Jackson and Eric Bledsoe to keep Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in check. | |||||||
10-25-21 | Saints v. Seahawks UNDER 43 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 82 h 23 m | Show |
The early forecast is for a high chance of rain - not exactly shocking for Seattle - with winds in the 10 mph range. That's not a plus for the Over. Nor is the quarterback matchup. Jameis Winston has been far more effective in his home games inside the New Orleans zone. Geno Smith is a backup. Both Winston and Smith are turnover-prone. Winston has been sacked nine times and picked off three times in three road games this season. The Saints are solid defensively both against the run and pass. The Saints entered this week ranked third in the metric DVOA, which is defense-adjusted value over average. The Seahawks' defense features middle linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Jamal Adams, two of the top players at their respective positions. The Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times the Seahawks have played an NFC opponent. | |||||||
10-24-21 | Colts +4 v. 49ers | Top | 30-18 | Win | 100 | 71 h 13 m | Show |
This has all the markings of a pick'em type game between two solid no-frill teams. Carson Wentz quietly is having a good season. He has just one interception, fewest of any starting quarterback, and has thrown multiple TD passes in each of his last three games. The Colts' stud offensive line is getting healthier. Jonathan Taylor gives Indy the best running back on the field by far. This is a huge game for Colts' star defensive lineman DeForest Buckner going against his former team. The 49ers have lost their last six home games. They are 0-8 ATS as home chalk. I find Kyle Shanahan to be perhaps the most overrated coach in the NFL. Jimmy Garoppolo is back at QB. Trey Lance isn't expected to play due to a knee injury. Garoppolo is much easier to game plan against. He wasn't mobile to begin with and now he's returning from a calf injury. The 49ers have yet to find their lead running back and star tight end George Kittle is on the injured list. The Colts are plus 7 in takeaways/giveaways. The 49ers, by contrast, have a minus-5 turnover ratio. The 49ers have multiple injuries in their secondary. There's a chance of rain and wind in the 10-15 mph range. This favors the better rushing team, which the Colts are because of Taylor. | |||||||
10-24-21 | Celtics -5.5 v. Rockets | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Boston and its new coach, Ime Udoka, are in need of a victory at 0-2. The Rockets are off a rare victory. Houston isn't going to win many games this season, but it did beat another bottom-feeder, Oklahoma City, in blowout fashion two days ago. The Rockets finished last season 0-8 ATS following a victory. The Celtics are on high urgency alert having lost their opening in double-overtime to the Knicks and then running out of gas against the Raptors in a 115-83 home loss this past Friday. The Celtics were booed by their fans and Udoka ripped into his team. Expect a strong performance from Boston today against a very weak opponent who doesn't have much of a home-court advantage. | |||||||
10-24-21 | Texans +18 v. Cardinals | 5-31 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 42 m | Show | |
As the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, the Cardinals deserve a break. They get one here. This is a rest stop for Arizona. The Cardinals came away with two huge division victories against the Rams and 49ers before going on the road against the Browns. The Cardinals didn't take their foot off the pedal defeating Cleveland, 37-14, last week. After this game, the Cardinals host the Packers on Thursday in a stand-alone nationally televised marquee matchup. Then Arizona goes to San Francisco for a rematch against the 49ers. The media may play up the DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt angle of facing their former team, but in truth the Cardinals can mail this one in - and they know it. Texans rookie QB Davis Mills has had 18 quarters of starting experience now. But, really, this entire handicap is based on a fade of Arizona in this monster price range and in a flat spot. The Cardinals have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times they've been a home favorite under Kliff Kingsbury. | |||||||
10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | 19-28 | Win | 100 | 67 h 3 m | Show | |
I have been watching the NFL for nearly 60 years. Never have I seen a worse wide receiver group than what the Lions have with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, KhaDarel Hodge, Tom Kennedy and Geronimo Allison. Jalen Ramsey can catch up on his reading facing these guys. The Rams, of course, know Jared Goff well. They know his many weaknesses and lack of downfield passing. Detroit's one-time decent offensive line isn't very good anymore either because of injuries and rookie left tackle Penei Sewell's continued struggles. The result is the Lions have failed to score 17 points in their last five games, averaging 15.2 points during this span. They have scored one first half TD since Week 2. The Lions lack talent on defense, too. But they play hard for Dan Campbell. Until getting clobbered by the Bengals, 34-11, this past Sunday the Lions held their previous three foes - Ravens, Bears and Vikings - to an average of 20.6 points. Detroit should be motivated to perform better defensively after getting lit up by the Bengals. Matthew Stafford can produce big points, but Sean McVay has no reason to reveal any trick plays, or new wrinkles against such a weak road foe. If a blowout is occurring, McVay might even pull Stafford and the rest of his offensive starters. The oddsmaker still hasn't quite caught up to the Lions when it comes to totals. The Under has cashed in Detroit's last four games. The Lions have gone Under the total by an average of nearly 11 points a game during their past four games. | |||||||
10-24-21 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -105 | 64 h 4 m | Show | |
I was having some doubt about the Ravens' defense - until this past Sunday. The Ravens got back to their effective blitzing ways and held Justin Herbert and his high-powered Chargers attack to a mesley six points. The Ravens held the Bengals to a combined six points last season. Zac Taylor is 0-4 versus Baltimore. I have far more confidence in the Ravens' defense and psychological edge than I do in the Bengals' promising offense and improved-but-still-vulnerable offensive line. I'm far more convinced about Cincinnati's improvement on defense. The Bengals rank fifth in scoring defense and give up the eighth-fewest yards per game. They can hold up at the point of attack against Baltimore especially with the Ravens down to a bunch of back-up, or over-the-hill, running backs. Cincinnati has held their last five opponents to an average of 16.8 points. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-quality season. However, he's mostly gone against weak-to-mediocre defenses. The Bengals are the best defense he's seen. | |||||||
10-24-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins OVER 47.5 | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 64 h 2 m | Show | |
There's some below-the-radar stuff that lends this matchup to a sneaky Over play. Let's start with the Falcons. Matt Ryan has picked up Arthur Smith's offense and picked up his game. He's completed 71 percent of his passes the last four games throwing 10 TD's during this span. Smith, an offensive guru, has had two weeks to game plan with the Falcons being idle last week. Star wide receiver Calvin Ridley is back. Kyle Pitts had his coming out party during the Falcons' last game, catching nine passes for 119 yards and a TD in a 27-20 win against the Jets. The Dolphins' secondary hasn't lived up to expectations with star cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones both being out. They are questionable for this game. Miami ranks in the bottom-four in points given up, yards allowed and pass defense. The Falcons rank in the top 10, too, in pace. Now the Dolphins. Miami's season numbers are skewed because of Jacoby Brissett's substandard play when Tua Tagovailoa was out with injured ribs. Tagovailoa returned last week against the Jaguars and threw for 351 yards and two TD's. He's a clear upgrade on Brissett. Tagovailoa has upgraded wide receiving weapons from a year ago and won't lack motivation to prove himself with Deshaun Watson rumors again floating around. The Dolphins play at the sixth-fasted pace, too. Miami's biggest weakness is its offensive line. Atlanta, though, lacks a pass rush. The Falcons surrender the second-most points per game at 29.6 and have only three takeaways. | |||||||
10-23-21 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary OVER 44 | 20-17 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
The linesmaker doesn't have time to put much emphasis into Canadian Football League lines. If he did he would realize this total opened too short. Perhaps it's accurate in reflecting scores of past games. But it's not fully taking into account where these two team's offenses are now. Saskatchewan has been held to an average of 18 points in its last two games after scoring 31 and 30 points during its previous two games. However, the Roughriders get key reinforcements here in wide receivers Shaq Evans and Duke Williams. Evans has played only two games and Williams will be making his Roughriders debut. This is a huge boost for QB Cody Fajardo. Calgary has picked up its offense this month, averaging 28 points in three October games. The Stampeders get a key playmaker back, too, in wide receiver Kamar Jordan. That gives QB Bo Levi Mitchell another target to go with Josh Huff and Markeith Ambles. Saskatchewan is giving up an average of 26.6 points in three road games. | |||||||
10-23-21 | Pistons +8.5 v. Bulls | 82-97 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Short revenge for Detroit. The teams just met four days ago in Detroit and the Bulls won, 94-88. The Pistons shot 40 percent from the floor and 21 percent from 3-point range yet lost by only six points. Chicago is much improved. But this is a flat spot for the 2-0 Bulls after they just whipped the Pelicans, 128-112, at home last night. This marks the Bulls' third game in four days and second in two days. Detroit hasn't played since losing to the Bulls this past Wednesday. The Pistons won't have Cade Cunningham, but they still have promising young talent in Isaiah Stewart, Jerami Grant and Saddiq Bey. | |||||||
10-23-21 | San Diego State +3 v. Air Force | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
I'm attracted to the unbeaten Aztecs, especially if getting more than a field goal, in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring game. There are no secrets here. These teams are going to be running - a lot. San Diego State has the superior run defense and the best running back in Greg Bell. The Aztecs rank No. 1 in the country in run defense. They are holding foes to only 16 points a game. The Falcons are favored because of home field and the Aztecs switching quarterbacks going to Lucas Johnson, who began his career at Georgia Tech. Johnson can only be an upgrade on Jordan Brookshire. | |||||||
10-23-21 | Maryland v. Minnesota -4 | Top | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
Minnesota has picked up its game since a Week 4 upset loss to Bowling Green. Since that defeat the Gophers pulled their own upsets knocking off Purdue on the road and Nebraska with both victories coming by seven points. Tanner Morgan finally is showing something at quarterback for Minnesota. The Gophers' offensive line is opening holes for their running backs no matter who carries the ball and Minnesota's defense has allowed just 12.5 points in its last four games. Maryland's confidence is down after blowout losses to Iowa and Ohio State by a combined 96 points. The Gophers hold a big coaching edge, too, with PJ Fleck versus Mike Locklsley. The Terrapins have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a road 'dog. | |||||||
10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State UNDER 47.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by some of the skill position stars such as Breece Hall, Jaylen Warren and Tay Martin. Defense is going to dominate more than offense. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 surrendering 16.3 points and 251.3 yards. Oklahoma State will need to effectively run because its QB, Spencer Sanders, is such an inaccurate passer. The Cyclones rank 14th in rush defense holding foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Iowa State ranks 20th from the the bottom in tempo. The Cyclones play at a very leisurely pace. They are going to feed Hall the ball a lot. Oklahoma State ranks 15th in run defense. The Cowboys also hold foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Cowboys linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez leads the Big 12 in tackles. | |||||||
10-23-21 | Kent State v. Ohio OVER 65.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -113 | 97 h 43 m | Show | |
These two MAC teams last played two seasons ago. There were 83 points scored. There could be that many points produced this time around, too. Kent State has a very good QB in Dustin Crum. The Golden Flashes' offensive statistics are skewed by the tough non-conference defenses they faced earlier in the season - Texas A&M, Maryland and Iowa. But since MAC play began, the Golden Flashes are averaging 35.3 points in their three conference games. A big thing about Kent State is it plays at the second fastest tempo in the country. Ohio gives up 30.7 points. The Bobcats rank 99th in yards allowed. The 1-6 Bobcats are bad. But they do one thing right - run the ball. Their QB, Armani Rogers, is a running quarterback. Only 31 teams average more yards on the ground than Ohio. Kent State ranks 121st in rush defense. So the Bobcats should be able to contribute their share of points. | |||||||
10-23-21 | Eastern Michigan -3.5 v. Bowling Green | 55-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan is 4-3 and needs this game if it wants to make a bowl game, which is a big deal for the Eagles. The Eagles are averaging a respectable 29.6 points a game. Bowling Green ranks 111th in run defense. The Falcons have gone downhill since upsetting Minnesota a month ago losing their last three games, all by 7 or more points to MAC foes Kent State, Akron and Northern Illinois. The Falcons failed to win a conference game last year. If you count just FBS schools, the Falcons have lost 17 of their last 19 home games. The Eagles are far from being a great team. But they are decent enough to cover this short road number against this sinking opponent. | |||||||
10-22-21 | Suns v. Lakers | Top | 115-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Both the Suns and Lakers lost their opening games. I'm expecting the Lakers to get well in this second game of their season being home and in revenge mode against the Suns, who eliminated them in the playoffs last season. The Lakers are healthy this time around with Anthony Davis back in the lineup. LA upgraded its roster adding Russell Westbrook. He should be more settled in after not playing well in the Lakers', 121-114, loss to the Warriors. The Suns didn't look good in a 110-98 home loss to the Nuggets two days ago. I don't think the Suns will be as good as they were last season when everything fell into place for them. | |||||||
10-22-21 | Pelicans v. Bulls -6 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
The Bulls are below the radar right now, a much improved team not getting enough respect from the linesmaker. Chicago added DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball to go with emerging superstar Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. The Bulls covered against the Pistons on the road in their opener despite shooting 43 percent from the floor and hitting 30 percent of their 3-pointers. New Orleans, on the other hand, isn't going to get good until it gets Zion Williamson back. He's recovering from surgery for a broken foot. The Pelicans have a new bench and lack experience. They aren't likely to have Josh Hart, Williamson's replacement, after he suffered a quad injury in the Pelicans' opening game, a 117-97 home loss to the 76ers. | |||||||
10-22-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
This series isn't about pitching. It's all about offense. Boston's bats have gone quiet the last two games. But I expect the Red Sox to explode against Luis Garcia, who has given up 13 earned runs in three playoff appearances spanning 8 2/3 innings. Garcia had to leave his last start six days ago against the Red Sox because of a sore knee. He surrendered five runs in one inning of work. The Red Sox had the third-highest batting average during the season. Only four teams scored more runs than Boston. The Red Sox have scored 6 or more runs in eight of their last 12 games. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. They have scored 5 or more runs in 11 of their last 12 games. Houston is averaging seven runs in its last dozen games. Nathan Eovaldi goes for Boston. The Astros have seen him twice in the series getting to him for seven runs in six innings. Neither bullpen instills any fear. Pitching usually trumps hitting. Not in this series, nor in this game, though. | |||||||
10-22-21 | Bruins v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
The Bruins have scored three goals in each of their first two games. They have maybe the top line in hockey and should be good for at least three goals in this game. Going back to last season, the Bruins have now scored 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 11 regular season games. The Sabres are a big early-season surprise. They are averaging 4 goals per game in jumping out to a 3-0 record. Buffalo faces former teammate Linus Ullmark, who is slated to make his season debut in net for Boston. The Sabres know Ullmark's tendencies well since he played six seasons for Buffalo. The Over has cashed the past four times the teams have met. | |||||||
10-21-21 | Oilers v. Coyotes OVER 6 | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
The Coyotes are going to be terrible this season. They're already giving indications of that, allowing an average of 5.6 goals in their three games. Edmonton superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are sure to feast. It's easy to envision Edmonton producing five goals in this game. After scoring just three goals in their first two games, the Coyotes produced four goals in their last game against the Blues. The Oilers just surrendered five goals to the Ducks in their last game. | |||||||
10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat -115 | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
The Heat have matched up well to the Bucks the past several seasons. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are reinforced with veteran additions Kyle Lowery, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris. Miami also catches Milwaukee short-handed. Ruled out for the Bucks are big men Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis along with point guard Jrue Holiday. So it's not too much to ask of the Heat to simply win their opening home game. | |||||||
10-21-21 | Ducks v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm not about to call the Ducks an Over team, but Anaheim's offense and power play have been surprisingly good at this early juncture. The Ducks also have been getting outstanding offensive contributions from their defensemen. They've helped the Ducks produce 3 or more goals in three of their four games. The Ducks have scored four power play goals in 12 opportunities. The Jets have given up seven goals in 15 short-handed situations. I'm expecting a lot of penalties, too. These teams met eight days ago in their season openers. The Ducks won, 4-1, but the big takeaway was the bad blood that came out after Jets forward Andrew Copp knocked Ducks goalie John Gibson to the ice after running into him. The Ducks considered that dirty pool. The Jets have scored eight goals in their last two games. | |||||||
10-21-21 | Tulane v. SMU -13.5 | Top | 26-55 | Win | 100 | 69 h 1 m | Show |
Tulane is in free fall losing and failing to cover its last four games. The Green Wave have lost their last two games by 23 points to East Carolina and by 18 to Houston. Now the Green Wave go on the road to face a motivated SMU team that wants to prove itself as the best team in the American Athletic Conference and a legitimate top-25 team. The Mustangs are ranked No. 21 in the currentThe Associated Press poll. Not only are the Mustangs home, but this is a nationally televised game on ESPN. Tulane ranks among the bottom-eight in points allowed at 40.2 and yards giving up more than 475 per game. QB Tanner Mordecia has come through in a big way for the Mustangs. SMU ranks in the top-10 in scoring at 40.7 and in yards gained. The Green Wave are averaging 23.2 points in their last four games. SMU should be good for at least 40 points here. Tulane isn't going to be able to keep up. | |||||||
10-20-21 | Kings +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 124-121 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
Portland could start slow under new coach Chauncey Billups. The Trail Blazers struggled through preseason going 0-4. Billups was quoted as saying Portland is further away than he thought they might be at this stage. The Kings have talent and depth. I'm expecting improvement from them. Sacramento went 4-0 in preseason. One of the Kings' preseason victories was 107-93 against the Trail Blazers although Damien Lillard and CJ McCollum didn't play. A key for the Kings is better defense. Ball hawking rookie Davion Mitchell can make an impact on defense. Portland enters this season having failed to cover eight of the past 11 times as a home favorite. | |||||||
10-20-21 | Bulls -5 v. Pistons | 94-88 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
Both the Bulls and Pistons were bad last season. The Pistons still are going to be bad with the youngest lineup in the NBA. The Bulls, though, should be much improved. Chicago has surrounded emerging superstar Zach LaVine with veteran stars DeMar DeRozan and Nkila Vucevic while solving its point guard issue by acquiring Lonzo Ball. The Bulls looked good in preseason going 4-0. They should have no trouble covering this small number against the Pistons, who are unlikely to have rookie Cade Cunningham, the first overall pick in the draft. Cunningham hasn't been able to go through a full practice this week because of an ankle injury. | |||||||
10-20-21 | Astros +112 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-1 | Win | 112 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
By stunning the Red Sox with a seven-run ninth inning last night, the Astros have regained momentum in this AL championship series. I believe Houston should have opened the favorite. So I'm on the Astros at a plus price. The Red Sox have pounded the ball during the postseason. But the Astros have the best offense in baseball. Houston is averaging 6.9 runs in its last 11 games. The pitching matchup is Framber Valdez versus Chris Sale. Those two pitched against each other this past Friday and Houston won, 5-4. Valdez is 3-1 with a 3.19 ERA in six career playoff games, including five starts. Valdez is 2-1 with a 1.59 ERA in four lifetime appearances against the Red Sox, including two starts. Sale hasn't been effective down the stretch. He has a 14.73 ERA in the playoffs this season and a lifetime 6.91 ERA in six career postseason starts. Sale's big name and past accomplishments don't come close to matching how poorly he's pitching now. | |||||||
10-19-21 | Ducks v. Oilers OVER 6 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
The Oilers may have the most dangerous line in hockey with Jesse Puljujarvi fitting in with superstars Connor McDvid and Leon Drasisitl. Puljujarvi already has four points - two goals and two assists - in Edmonton's first two games. The Ducks could be missing reliable defenseman Hampus Lindholm. He was hurt in the Ducks' 3-2 overtime win against the Flames last night. The Over is 5-2-1 the past eight times the teams have met in Edmonton. | |||||||
10-19-21 | Islanders v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -103 | 2 h 9 m | Show | |
Welcome to the Blackhawks Marc-Andre Fleury. The Blackhawks were bad defensively last season and they haven't shown any improvement through three games this season. Chicago has given up 13 goals. More surprising is the Islanders' lack of defense. They've allowed 11 goals in two games with goalie Ilya Sorokin off to a slow start. Going back to last season, the Over is 16-5-1 in the Blackhawks' last 22 games. | |||||||
10-19-21 | Nets +1 v. Bucks | Top | 104-127 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
These are the two best teams in the Eastern Conference heading into the season. The Nets have the greater motivation having lost in seven games to the Bucks in the playoffs. The Nets had a 2-0 series lead, but then were struck by injuries. Aside from Kyrie Irving, the Nets are at full strength now. Brooklyn signed free agent guard Patty Mills to fill the void during Irving's absence. Mills is a solid role contributor. The Bucks are home, but that may not be the positive you would think. It's ring night where the Milwaukee players receive their championship rings. That's often a mental distraction and provides the opposition added incentive. Credit to the Bucks for what they accomplished last season. But I'm not convinced they are better than Brooklyn when the Nets have a healthy Kevin Durant and James Harden. | |||||||
10-18-21 | Blues -175 v. Coyotes | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Arizona is going to be terrible this season. The Coyotes opened the season with an 8-2 loss to the Blue Jackets and then lost, 2-1, in a shootout against the Sabres, another terrible team like themselves. The Blues looked very good in their opener - at least for the first 50 minutes. The Blues nearly blew a 4-1 lead against the Avalanche on the road, but held on to win, 5-3. Now St. Louis is stepping way down in class. The Coyotes have confirmed Carter Hutton will be in goal. I don't consider him a legitimate starting NHL goalie. | |||||||
10-18-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
Don't overthink this one. The Titans are worse than their 3-2 record. If the Bills don't pass the eye test of being the best team in the NFL right now following their road victory against the Chiefs they certainly pass the statistical test. Buffalo entered this week leading the NFL in scoring at 34.4 points per game while giving up the fewest points at 12.8. The Titans' bottom 10 defense isn't going to be able to stop mobile Josh Allen, who has the luxury of excellent play-calling from offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, after not slowing down rookies Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson the past two weeks. Derrick Henry continues to be the best running back in the NFL. Henry's usefulness, though, is greatly reduced if the Titans have to play from behind as I anticipate. The Bills' pass rush is much improved and Ryan Tanneheill has been sacked a league-high 20 times. The Bills have won by double-digits in 10 of their last 11 regular season games. Any talk of a Bills' letdown after their great win against Kansas City last week is crazy. Not only is this a Monday night game, but Buffalo has revenge for a 42-16 loss to Tennessee last year. | |||||||
10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox OVER 9 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
There's only one way to play the total in this game - and it's surely not Under. Boston manager Alex Cora said he feels ''really good offensively,'' about his team. He should. The Red Sox have scored 13 runs during the first two games of this series. They are averaging 7.8 runs in their last five games. Boston has scored six or more runs in six of its last eight games. Certainly the Astros figure to get their share of runs. They led the majors in runs and batting average. Houston is averaging 7.1 runs in its last nine games. The Astros have scored a minimum of five runs a game during these past nine games. Neither team has a starting pitcher, or the bullpen, to stymie these powerhouse offenses. | |||||||
10-17-21 | Stars v. Senators +120 | 2-3 | Win | 120 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
The Senators have won each of the last six times they have been a home underdog. Dallas is 0-4 in its last four visits to Ottawa. The Stars already are dealing with injuries. The biggest injury is to key defenseman John Klingberg. The Stars also are going with backup goalie Anton Khudobin. There's a chance the Senators will have newly signed Brady Tkachuk in the lineup. But I still like the Senators to pull the upset even without Tkachuk. | |||||||
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns UNDER 50.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 55 m | Show |
The Browns' defense isn't elite, but they are much better than how they looked last week in giving up 47 points to a hot Justin Herbert and Chargers' offense. Cleveland had surrendered just 33 combined points in its previous three games. Kyler Murray took a beating against the 49ers last week. The Cardinals are heading into a different climate away from their desert. The forecast is for wind in the 20-to-30 mph range. Neither team plays fast. The Browns are heavily run-oriented. They rank 29th in pace. The Cardinals are in the bottom nine in tempo. | |||||||
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 98 h 60 m | Show | |
The Cardinals are the NFL's lone unbeaten team. By the time this game finishes, I highly doubt Arizona still will be without a loss. This game sets up well for the Browns. Cleveland easily is the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL thanks to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Cardinals rank 28th in run defense. Kyler Muray has been carrying the one-dimensional Cardinals. He's bothered by a shoulder injury in his passing arm and is likely to be without his injured center Rodney Hudson. Early reports are the Browns will have a number of their banged-up defensive players available for this game. The warm-weather Cardinals are traveling into heavy wind. | |||||||
10-17-21 | Mercury v. Sky -4 | 74-80 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
Diana Taurasi, Skylar Diggs-Smith and Brittany Griner are great players who have tremendous pride. They will try to dig deep to keep Phoenix alive down 2-1 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series. But Chicago is playing too well, has home-court - which can not be underestimated - and isn't carrying the fatigue factor Phoenix is. The Sky blew out the Mercury, 86-50, two days ago in front of a home sell-out crowd of 10,378. If the Sky play as well as they did Friday, they will be the champions. There's no reason they shouldn't. Their defense has been stellar. Phoenix is lucky not to have been swept in this series having pulled off a home overtime victory in Game 2. Candace Parker, Kahleah Copper, Diamond DeShields and Courtney Vandersloot all are playing at high levels for Chicago. The Sky have gotten that important inside defense needed against Griner. The Mercury committed 17 turnovers in Game 3 while shooting just 25 percent from the field, the second-lowest percentage in WNBA Finals history. The Sky actually outscored Griner and the rest of the Mercury in the paint, 36-14. Phoenix has no chance if it is dominated inside like that. Some of the Mercury's problems are caused by fatigue. The league gave them no break starting the finals just two days after the Mercury won a hard-fought five-game series against the Aces. That took a huge physical and mental toll. This marks Phoenix's sixth game in 12 days. | |||||||
10-17-21 | Bengals v. Lions UNDER 47.5 | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 67 h 38 m | Show | |
The Bengals are much improved defensively. They held the Packers to 22 points during regulation last week and have surrendered an average of 18.2 points during their last four games. Cincinnati gets to step way down in class to face the punchless Lions. Detroit didn't have much going - and that was before getting struck with massive injuries. Frank Ragnow, a very good center, is out. So is Quintez Cephus, who had emerged as Detroit's top wide receiver. Tyrell Williams, maybe Detroit's second best wideout, is out, too. Not helping matters are the struggles of rookie left tackle Penei Sewell. The result has been Jared Goff averaging an embarrassing 6.6 yards pass attempt, while continuing to show off his inaccuracy and lack of any big-play ability. Goff isn't helped by having the worst wide receiving corps in the NFL. Detroit is averaging 16.2 points in its last four games. The Lions reflect their coach, blue collar Dan Campbell. They are grinders. Their defense doesn't have any playmakers, but can be counted on to provide a strong effort reflective of their coach. Detroit has held its last three foes - Ravens, Bears and Vikings - to 20.6 points a game. That figure would be even lower but the Ravens and Vikings kicked long field goals at the gun to take away two wins from the Lions. The Bengals have a below average offensive line and skill position injuries. Joe Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury. His backup, Samaje Perine, is on the COVID list. Joe Burrow is playing on a surgically repaired left knee and was having trouble talking after getting hit in the throat last week. | |||||||
10-17-21 | Packers v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 66 h 24 m | Show | |
So far the Packers aren't the offensive powerhouse of a year ago. Left tackle David Bakhitari remains out and Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay's second best offensive lineman and most versatile, is questionable having missed the past couple of games. The Bears have shown a resurgency on defense. Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn are putting forth a strong pass rush and veteran linebacker Danny Trevathan is back playing, bolstering a strong crew. Chicago ranks eighth in fewest points and yards allowed. The Packers have been getting A.J. Dillon more involved in the offense. That's a plus for the Under as Dillon is a plodding north/south runner who keeps the clock moving with little threat of breaking off a big run. The Bears have become ultra-conservative with Justin Fields after the Browns held them to only 47 yards. Fields is averaging fewer than 20 throws and only three rushing attempts during his last three games. David Montgomery and Allen Robinson are the Bears' two best weapons. Montgomery is out with a knee injury and the Andy Dalton/Fields quarterback situation has rendered Robinson nearly a non-entity. He hasn't had more than 63 receiving yards in his last seven games, nor has he scored a TD. | |||||||
10-17-21 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 66 h 52 m | Show |
No surprise the Chiefs have been terrible on defense. Big surprise Washington is giving up the second-most points in the league at 31 per game. Washington has only three takeaways after recording 23 last season. The Chiefs' offense can cover for their defense. Washington's offense can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. That's asking way too much of erratic backup QB Taylor Heinicke, especially given that he could missing the right side of his offensive line with Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff out and tackle Sam Cosmi questionable. Kansas City should have its focus for this non-conference matchup coming off an embarrassing, 38-20, home loss on national TV to the Bills this past Sunday night. Washington was just picked apart by Jameis Winston in a 33-22 home loss to the Saints this past Sunday. Mahomes is far better than Winston and has far superior receiving weapons even if Tyreek Hill doesn't play. Washington has yet to get its secondary straightened out. Washington ranks last in home attendance so it doesn't have much of a home field advantage. | |||||||
10-16-21 | Hawaii +14.5 v. Nevada | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
Hawaii has the right ingredients to hang with Nevada. I'm fully expecting starting QB Chevan Cordeiro to be behind center. Head coach Todd Graham expects that, too. But I'm fine if the Rainbow Warriors have to use backup QB Brayden Schager, who threw a pair of TD passes and no interceptions in Hawaii's upset win against Fresno State, 27-24. That was two weeks ago. The Rainbow Warriors were idle last week. Hawaii has some underrated running backs in Dae Dae Hunter and Dedrick Parson, who can take advantage of Nevada's less-than-stellar run defense. The Warriors also have pass defense to bother Carson Strong. Hawaii has come up with 16 takeaways, which was tied for third-most in the nation entering Friday. The Wolfpack will have to contend with Calvin Turner Jr., perhaps the best all-around and most dynamic player in the Mountain West Conference. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering the past five times. | |||||||
10-16-21 | Jets -130 v. Sharks | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
The Sharks were terrible last season finishing 3-14. San Jose doesn't look any better going into this season. If anything they could be even weaker in goal. They also don't have Evander Kane. Winnipeg is off a 4-1 loss to Anaheim from Wednesday. The Jets aren't going to lack motivation. They outshot the Ducks, 34-22. Now the Jets get back Mark Scheifele, who finished his four-game suspension by sitting out against the Ducks. The Jets have won the past four times in San Jose. | |||||||
10-16-21 | Dodgers v. Braves +122 | 2-3 | Win | 122 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
This is an action play for me. I don't care who the Dodgers start here. Max Fried is pitching well for Atlanta and LA is in a terrible situational spot. While the Braves were resting after finishing off the Brewers in four games during their Division Series, the Dodgers had to endure a tough five-game series against their long and most hated rival, the Giants. The Dodgers finally finished off the Giants with a tense 2-1 victory late Thursday night. Following that game, the Dodgers had to make the long flight to Atlanta. This sure looks like a bullpen game for the Dodgers. Fried, a native of LA, was sharp in his first postseason start holding the Brewers scoreless in six innings last Saturday. Fried is 3-0 in his last 3 starts with a mind-boggling 0.39 ERA. The Dodgers are missing Max Muncy and his 36 home runs. LA has scored 3 or fewer runs in four of its six playoff games. | |||||||
10-16-21 | Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 57.5 | Top | 49-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
Alabama put up 41 points on Mississippi State last year. The Crimson Tide are in the mood to run up a score after getting upset, 41-38, by Texas A&M last week. The Crimson Tide average 44.3 points per game. Only five teams score more per game. Not surprisingly, Mississippi State is all about passing under Mike Leach. The Bulldogs rank fifth in the nation in passing yards. Zach Calzada burned Alabama for nearly 300 passing yards and 3 TD throws last week. Mississippi State QB Will Rogers is the second-most accurate passer in the country connecting on 75.7 percent of his throws. Rogers has thrown for 1,862 yards with a 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. So the Bulldogs should put up their share of points. | |||||||
10-16-21 | Vanderbilt v. South Carolina UNDER 51.5 | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
These teams don't have strong defenses, but their offenses are terrible. Vanderbilt is last in the nation in scoring averaging 13.3 points in its six games. The Commodores are 121st in yards per game at 310.7. South Carolina ranks 108th in scoring at 22 points and is 112th in yards at 335. The Gamecocks also play at a very slow tempo. Vanderbilt passes more than South Carolina. However, the Gamecocks' defense strength is their secondary. They rank 12th in pass defense. Weather could factor, too, as there is a wind and a chance of rain. | |||||||
10-16-21 | Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 57.5 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 5 m | Show | |
Ohio has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Bobcats average just 19.3 points. They rank 119th in passing yards. The Bobcats are a running team, which eats clock. Buffalo ranks 95th in passing. The Bulls also like to run a lot. The Bulls' offense numbers are skewed because they opened the season scoring 69 points against Wagner, a non-Division I school. Another big key to the Under is weather. The forecast in Buffalo is for rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-35 mph range. | |||||||
10-16-21 | Rutgers -130 v. Northwestern | 7-21 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
These two teams sit at the bottom of their respective divisions in the Big Ten. But there's a class difference here. Rutgers is much the better team. Greg Schiano has the Scarlet Knights on the path to respectability. Rutgers opened 3-0, but then had to play a gauntlet of Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State. Rutgers has played a much tougher schedule than Northwestern. The Wildcats have just one win against an FBS team - and that was against Ohio, which is 1-5. The Wildcats have been outscored, 94-28, in their two Big Ten games losing to Michigan State and Nebraska. Rutgers has covered in its last seven road contests. That says something about the job Schiano is doing. | |||||||
10-15-21 | San Diego State -9 v. San Jose State | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
This isn't 2020 when San Jose State had a magical season winning all seven of their regular season games. The Spartans are way down this year because their offense has gone into the tank. QB Nick Starkel has missed the last two games and is questionable for this matchup. Starkel hasn't played well. Spartans backup QB Nick Nash did not look good in losing to Colorado State, 32-14, last week. The Spartans rank 114th in scoring at 20.5 points a game and are 113th in total yards. They have scored fewer than 18 points in four of their five games versus Division I teams. San Jose has yet to cover against any of the five Division I opponents they've played. San Diego State is 5-0, winning with a strong running game and solid defense. Greg Bell is one of the best running backs in the Mountain West. The Spartans are minus 13 in turnover ratio. The Aztecs have 18 sacks and seven interceptions. | |||||||
10-15-21 | Mercury v. Sky UNDER 167 | Top | 50-86 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
This total may look short based on Phoenix's 91-86 victory over Chicago two days ago, but it isn't. There were 158 points scored during regulation. It took an overtime for that total to go Over. This is a physical series with a lot of wear and tear that is taking a toll. Sky guard Allie Quigley, for instance, is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league. But she's missed 18 of 24 from beyond the range in this series. Chicago has played its best defense of the season during the playoffs. The Sky has the Mercury out of their rhythm. Phoenix is relying on its superstar center Brittney Griner to bail them out with second chance points and inside scoring. Griner is playing well, but she is looking at a fatigue factor not to mention the Sky's strong defense inside the paint. The Mercury is playing for the fifth time in 10 days, which is a lot for a WNBA team. Griner has logged big minutes. She played 41:29 minutes on Wednesday. That has to take a toll. | |||||||
10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
The combination of two of the best offenses in baseball facing starting pitchers not in good form puts me on the Over. The Astros led the majors in runs and batting average. The Red Sox had the third highest batting average and ranked fifth in runs. Boston is starting Chris Sale, who was last seen giving up five runs on four hits in just one inning against the Rays. Sale didn't pitch well either during his final regular season start against the Nationals pulled in the third inning. He's not backed by a strong bullpen either. The Astros are swinging hot bats averaging 7.7 runs in their last seven games. They have scored at least six runs in each of these games. Framber Valdez gets the start for Houston. He wasn't impressive in his last playoff start surrendering four runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings against the White Sox. Valdez has allowed eight runs this month in only 9 1/3 innings. The Red Sox have scored five or more runs in six of their last seven games. | |||||||
10-15-21 | Blackhawks v. Devils OVER 6 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Even with the addition of Seth Jones and Marc-Andre Fleury, the Blackhawks are going to have problems on defense. Chicago gave up four goals and 36 shots on net to the Avalanche in its opening game despite Colorado missing superstar scorer Nathan MacKinnon. This is the Devils' first game. They went 4-1 during preseason averaging 4.5 goals. They have a lot of young, promising goal scorers. | |||||||
10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
Baseball got what it wanted - a Game 5 between the Dodgers and Giants in their best-of-five playoff series. The oddsmaker knows this is likely to be a pitching duel between Julio Urias and Logan Webb, both of whom are backed by rested bullpens with the teams having been idle on Wednesday. The marketplace is buying this as the total has dropped to 6 1/2 at a number of shops. I'm buying it, too, locking into Under 7. Urias faced the Giants in Game 2 holding them to one run on three hits in five innings. Urias has won his last 12 decisions. He has a 2.61 career ERA against San Francisco. Webb has been the Giants' best pitcher. He threw 7 2/3 shutout innings against the Dodgers in Game 1. Webb has held the current LA lineup to a .208 batting average. Each team is missing an important hitter with Max Muncy out for the Dodgers and Brandon Belt sidelined for the Giants. The clincher for me, though, is who the home plate umpire is scheduled to be: Doug Eddings. The Under has cashed 59 percent of the time during the past two years Eddings has been behind the plate comprising 44 games. If you go by the last five years, Eddings has the highest called strikes percentage of any umpire. | |||||||
10-14-21 | Penguins v. Panthers UNDER 6.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -113 | 17 h 29 m | Show | |
Minus Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, the Penguins are much more conservative and defensive-minded. Don't be deceived by the Penguins' 6-2 opening win against the Lightning this past Tuesday. That score is misleading due to the high number of empty net goals the Lightning gave up in a futile and classless bid to get back into a game they were going to lose. The Penguins also might be minus Jake Guentzel, too, because of COVID protocol. Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is looking to play much better this season. I believe he will. The Under has cashed the past six times these teams have met. Thursday Free Play Senators plus $1.49 hosting Maple Leafs The Senators played the Maple Leafs tough last season going 4-4-1 against them and are in a great spot to spring an upset here. Toronto edged Montreal, 2-1, in front of a packed home crowd Wednesday. It was an intense, revenge game for the Maple Leafs, who were eliminated in the playoffs by the Canadiens last season. The Maple Leafs had to kill off a 5-on-3 penalty to preserve the win. While the Maple Leafs will be playing without rest, the Senators are anxious to start their season. They showed promise down the stretch last season going 7-2-1 in their final 10 games. Ottawa has won the past five times it has been a home underdog. Toronto still will be without superstar center Auston Matthews. The NHL's leading goal scorer last season is out with a wrist injury. The Senators have defeated the Maple Leafs 11 of the last 16 times at home. | |||||||
10-14-21 | Stars v. Rangers -125 | 3-2 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
The Rangers are more physical and better coached this season with Gerard Gallant. They had a tough opener at the Capitals last night. But I expect them to bounce back at home today. This is the Stars' season debut. So the Rangers have the advantage of having played a game already. Fatigue won't matter this being just the second game of the season. Dallas could be minus veteran Alexander Radulov. He missed practice on Wednesday due to non-COVID illness. The Rangers are 7-2 the past nine times when favored, while Dallas is 1-6 the past seven times as a road 'dog. | |||||||
10-13-21 | Sky v. Mercury -3.5 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
This really is a must-win spot for Phoenix. If the Mercury lose they trail 2-0 in the best-of-five WNBA championship series and have to play in Chicago for Game 3. The Sky are playing their best ball. Granted. But they were in a great spot for Game 1 when they defeated the Mercury, 91-77, this past Sunday. Chicago had been idle for four days having taken out Connecticut in four games. The Mercury, meanwhile, had to come back and defeat Las Vegas on the road this past Friday to win the five-game Western Conference series. The Mercury were still feeling physically and mentally exhausted from nipping the Aces, 87-84, while being forced to play for the third time in five days. Now, though, the Mercury have had a chance to regroup. Brittney Griner gives Phoenix a dominating inside presence. Griner is having a strong postseason averaging 20.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. I don't see veteran stars Griner, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith losing this clutch game and getting swept at home. | |||||||
10-13-21 | Rangers +115 v. Capitals | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
The Rangers hate the Capitals because of Tom Wilson. New York should be tough this season with the coaching switch to Gerard Gallant. The talent and goalkeeping are there for the Rangers. Foes won't be able to physically intimate the Rangers either since New York brought in enforcer Ryan Reaves. Washington is a team that's declining. The Capitals have depth concerns and questionable goaltending. They were knocked out of the postseason early. | |||||||
10-13-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -167 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
The Maple Leafs have waited all off season for this game. Montreal came back from a 3-to-1 deficit to knock the Maple Leafs out of the playoffs last season. So this is monster revenge for Toronto. I'm expecting a Toronto blowout as the Canadiens won't have goalie Carey Price and are down several defensive players. Defensemen Shea Weber and Joel Edmundson. Weber is out for the season with various injuries. Montreal also will be missing defensive-minded center Phillip Danault. | |||||||
10-13-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
This is monster revenge for the Maple Leafs. Montreal shocked their Canadian neighbor by coming back from a 3-to-1 playoff deficit to eliminate the Maple Leafs last season. The Maple Leafs are one of the higher scoring teams in the league and like to play up-tempo. They catch the Canadiens minus several key defensemen along with goalie Carey Price. Both of Tuesday's opening games sailed Over the total. I see this one going Over, too. | |||||||
10-12-21 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -127 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
Las Vegas wasn't your typical expansion team. The Golden Knights were good right away. Seattle isn't typical either. The Kraken aren't going to reach the lofty heights the Golden Knights did during their first couple of seasons, but they will be competitive. That's because the Kraken went for defense and goaltending. Seattle is going to play a conservative, defensive style. The Kraken have the veteran players to do this starting with defenseman and team captain Mark Giordano and goalie Philipp Graubauer, a finalist for the Vezina Trophy last season when he was with Colorado. The Kraken shut out Vancouver, 4-0, in their final preseason game last Tuesday. The Golden Knights ended last season losing in six games to the Canadiens in the Stanley Cup semifinals producing only 13 goals in those six games while going 0-for-15 in power play opportunities. Robin Lehner teamed with Marc-Andre Fleury to allow the fewest goals last season. Lehner takes over as the undisputed No. 1 goalie following Fleury's departure to the Blackhawks. Lehner and Graubauer are among the top goalies in the NHL. Depth at forward is down for both teams because of injuries and COVID-19 protocols. Las Vegas had just 10 forwards during its last practice. So I'm expecting a tight-checking, low-scoring opening game. | |||||||
10-12-21 | Penguins v. Lightning UNDER 6 | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Not having Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin to begin the season means a transformation for the Penguins. This transformation is to a strong defensive tone starting with this opening game. Penguins coach Mike Sullivan realizes he can't replace the 2.4 average points that Crosby and Malkin produced. So look for Pittsburgh to rely on structure and an emphasis on defense. The Penguins have good defensive depth. That was made obvious when they sent down Pierre-Olivier Joseph, who I regard as a very good defensive prospect. Sullivan was quoted saying this, ''If we're going to have success, we're going to have to play a stringy game. It's going to take a collective effort and attention to detail. With some of the game-breakers that aren't in our lineup right now, we can't look to those guys to be the difference. We have to build a team game that's going to give us the best chance to be successful.'' The Penguins led the NHL in goals against average and save percentage during March. Their goalie, Tristan Jarry, is coming off a strong regular season where he went 25-9-3 with a 2.75 goals against average. Tampa Bay has the No. 1 goalie in the NHL in Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning also will be breaking an entire new third line. | |||||||
10-12-21 | Appalachian State -4 v. UL-Lafayette | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Now that I don't have to lay more than four points, I'm going to get involved with Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are the more well-rounded team and have more quality victories. They've defeated Marshall and own a blowout victory against Georgia State. Lafayette defeated South Alabama by two points and didn't look impressive in beating Nicholls State and Georgia Southern. Appalachian State has topped 500 yards in each of its last three games. The Ragin' Cajuns are 1-4 ATS with their lone cover occurring versus Ohio. Their offense is down from last season. They also have kicking problems. Their regular kicker is out for the year and their backup, Nate Snyder, missed two field goals and an extra point in their last game. The Mountaineers have revenge motivation, too, after losing, 24-21, last year. Prior to that game, the Mountaineers were 8-0 versus Lafayette. | |||||||
10-11-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
It's very close between these two teams, despite the inflated spread on the Dodgers. The big-market Dodgers with their dazzling array of super talent are always going to carry a high price. I feel very comfortable taking 1 1/2 runs with the Giants on the run line especially with them being the visitor and thus assured of getting nine innings worth of at bats. San Francisco is 6-4 at Dodger Stadium this season. Another reason for this huge price is the Dodgers are pitching Max Scherzer while San Francisco is going with southpaw Alex Wood. My handicap is on the Giants not against the Dodgers. I certainly respect LA and Scherzer, a worthy Hall of Famer. But the guy is 37 and he did give up 11 runs, 10 of which were earned, during his last two regular-season starts. Scherzer gave up one run on three hits and three walks in 4 1/3 innings against the Cardinals in the Dodgers' wild-card game. Scherzer threw 94 pitches in those 4 1/3 innings. Lifetime versus the Giants, Scherzer is 4-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 11 starts. The Giants are an amazing 40-15 in their last 55 road games against a righty starter. Wood has been solid for San Francisco going 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA in 26 starts. Wood, a former Dodger, has a 3.05 career ERA at Dodger Stadium throwing 250 2/3 innings there. The Dodgers ranked eighth among National League teams in batting against lefties and were ninth in on-base percentage against southpaws. | |||||||
10-11-21 | Colts v. Ravens -7 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
The Colts can't come close to matching the dynamic Lamar Jackson. The Colts' strength has been their play in the trenches. But lacking a dominant pass rusher and suffering multiple injuries in the offensive line leave the Colts mediocre as their 1-3 accurately reflects. Jackson is an improved passer, making him even more lethal. He gives the Ravens a monster QB edge against Carson Wentz, who has been turnover-prone and dealing with injuries to both of his ankles. Jackson was 22-for-37 passing for 316 yards on the road last week against a very good Denver defense. The Colts' defense isn't as good ad Denver's and the Ravens are home. It's the Colts' third straight road game. The Ravens rank No. 2 in special teams, according to Football Outsiders, and their defense is getting healthier. They should be able to bottle up the Colts' ground attack and apply pressure to Wentz because Indy is without its best offensive lineman, stud guard Quenton Nelson, and also could be missing center Ryan Kelly because of a groin injury and tackle Braden Smith because of foot and thumb injuries. All of my checkmarks go to the Ravens. So I'm confident in laying a touchdown with them at home against this opponent. | |||||||
10-11-21 | Toronto v. Hamilton -4.5 | 24-23 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
Toronto is playing better having won a season-high two in a row. Both of those victories were achieved at home with the latter occurring just this past Wednesday against 2-6 Ottawa. Now the Argos have to play just five days later - and on the road in a very tough away setting for this Canadian Thanksgiving Day game. Toronto has lost and failed to cover in each of its last three away games. One of those road losses was to Hamilton, 32-19, on Sept. 6. ''I know we're going to be going into it tired,'' Argos coach Ryan Dinwiddie said about this matchup. ''We just have to make sure we're not mentally tired.'' Hamilton last played on Oct. 2 when it was upset at home by Montreal in overtime. The Tiger-Cats are anxious to redeem themselves following that tough loss, which ended an 11-game home win streak. The Tiger-Cats are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games. The return of QB Jeremiah Masoli, strong home field and nine days of rest and preparation compared to just five days for Toronto makes the Tiger-Cats the right side especially given the Argos' poor road history. Toronto is 11-25-1 ATS during its past 37 road contests. The Argos are 2-7-1 ATS the past 10 times they've played in Hamilton. | |||||||
10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
Perhaps down the road, the Chiefs will become the best team in the NFL again. Right now Kansas City can't make that distinction given how bad its defense is. But the Bills can. They are looking great on both sides of the ball. I regard the Bills as the best team in the NF. So I'll gladly accept any points coming to them in this rematch of the AFC title game. The Chiefs were better than the Bills back then. They aren't now. The Bills give up the fewest points, yards and passing yards in the NFL. Their offense can trade points against any opponent. The Chiefs are potent as ever on offense, although Patrick Mahomes already has five interceptions. Buffalo leads the NFL in takeways with 10. Kansas City rates second-to-last in points and yards allowed. The Chiefs have given up 29 or more points in every game. They rank last in yards per play allowing 6.87. The Bills are first in that category holding foes to 4.0 yards per play. Buffalo has covered 12 of its last 15 games. The Chiefs are just the opposite going 3-12 ATS. Kansas City also is 1-7 ATS in its past eight home games. | |||||||
10-10-21 | 49ers +5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 48 m | Show |
Whether it's Jimmy Garoppolo or Trey Lance behind center, I want the 49ers going for me here. San Francisco is 10-4 ATS the past 14 times as an underdog and catch the Cardinals, the lone unbeaten team in the NFL, fat and happy after they ended an eight-game losing streak to the Rams with their impressive, 37-20, victory last Sunday. San Francisco is 2-2, but aren't that far from being 4-0. They nearly pulled off a comeback against the Packers and they outgained the Seahawks by 223 yards in their one-score loss to Seattle last week. The 49ers have held their last three foes - Eagles, Packers and Seahawks - to an average of 305 yards. Kyler Murray is the early frontrunner for MVP. The Cardinals have played three weak defenses, though, in the Titans, Vikings and Jaguars. Kliff Kingsbury has been terrible in this role as the Cardinals are 1-8 ATS as a home favorite during the Kingsbury era. | |||||||
10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 46.5 | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 90 h 36 m | Show | |
The Browns' strength is running the ball with their great 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cleveland ranks first in rushing averaging 177 yards on the ground. The Chargers rank 29th in run defense and lost inside linebacker Kenneth Murray and defensive tackle Justin Jones to injuries further eroding their rush defense. The Chargers' strength is passing. Justin Herbert can hurt a Cleveland secondary. Herbert is hot with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. The Browns' defense is improved, but they've been fortunate to go against weak offensive lines in their last three games facing the Texans, Bears and Vikings. This is a clear-cut case of strength versus strength and the total is low enough to get involved. | |||||||
10-10-21 | Sky +3 v. Mercury | 91-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
The Mercury finds themselves at a real disadvantage in this first game of the WNBA championship series. Chicago has been idle for four days. The Sky knocked off Connecticut, the best defensive team in the league, in four games. They've been on the West Coast since Friday rested and ready. Phoenix gutted out a full five-game series against Las Vegas. They edged the Aces, 87-84, Friday night in Las Vegas. The Mercury accomplished this despite missing Kia Nurse and Sophia Cunningham. Those are two of their seven best players. Nurse is out for the season with a knee injury while Cunningham is questionable with a strained calf. This will be the Mercury's third game in five days. The Sky are playing their best defense of the season. They are far from the team that went 0-3 against the Mercury during the regular season. The Mercury beat Chicago by one point and in overtime during two of their victories. A key for the Sky will be limiting the inside presence of Brittney Griner. They kept Sun's superstar Jonquel Jones in check with strong inside defense. They have the depth to do this against Griner, too. | |||||||
10-10-21 | Lions v. Vikings UNDER 49.5 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 68 h 11 m | Show | |
The Under has cashed seven the last eight times in this series. I expect that trend to continue here given this NFC North Division rivalry and the Lions' offensive woes. The Lions are averaging 16 points during their last three games. They are going to be without perhaps their two best offensive linemen with left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow out with injuries. A third offensive line starter, Penei Sewell, isn't likely to play either for Detroit because of an ankle injury. Sparked by a rejuvenated Danielle Hunter, the Vikings are averaging 3.2 sacks per game. The Lions have discovered first-hand what Sean McVay knew that Jared Goff is merely a game manager. The Vikings' secondary can handle Goff and a Detroit wide receiving corps that is the worst in the league. Detroit doesn't have a good defense. But the Lions play hard for Dan Campbell - at least so far. The Vikings' offense becomes more ground-and-pound when Dalvin Cook isn't fully in the lineup, which he hasn't been for the past two games. He's been slowed by an ankle injury. | |||||||
10-10-21 | Titans v. Jaguars +4.5 | 37-19 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 7 m | Show | |
This is the Jaguars' biggest game of the season. Something Urban Meyer is well aware of. Indications are the Jaguars have had a good week of practice despite the distractions of Meyer. Trevor Lawrence is getting better at protecting the ball. He faces a very weak defense here. Zach Wilson enjoyed success against the Titans last Sunday. So should Lawrence. Tennessee gives up 27.8 points a game. That's just one fewer point per game than the Jaguars allow. Jacksonville is capable. They led both the Cardinals and Bengals by nine and 14 points before losing. Given their injury situation, the Titans should not be laying more than a field goal on the road. Maybe the Titans get back A.J. Brown, but they are likely to still be without Julio Jones and underrated punter Brett Kern. Tennessee also is banged-up in its offensive line. The Titans have yielded 17 sacks, most in the NFL entering this week. | |||||||
10-09-21 | New Mexico State v. Nevada OVER 62.5 | Top | 28-55 | Win | 100 | 30 h 59 m | Show |
Nevada averages more than 32 points a game and has one of the best QB's in the country, Carson Strong. New Mexico State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 115th in scoring defense giving up 34.2 points and 113th in yards allowed at 449.8. It's safe to expect Nevada to put up at least 40 points on the Aggies. The key here is getting enough scoring from New Mexico State. I see that happening. The Aggies are a passing team, averaging 43 throws per game. It's a short passing attack, but they are not run-oriented at all. The Aggies have averaged 30 points per game in their last four matchups facing San Jose State, Hawaii, South Carolina State and New Mexico. The weather should be fine with no rain and little wind. | |||||||
10-09-21 | LSU +3 v. Kentucky | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 27 m | Show | |
Great job by Kentucky upsetting Florida last week. Mark Stoops has made the Wildcats respectable. But I don't see Kentucky taking out LSU, too, just a week later and coming right after the glow of its Florida victory. I understand the Tigers are way down from their national championship team of two seasons ago. We're still talking LSU, though, with its great athletes, talent and speed. LSU QB Max Johnson has the ability and arm to dent a Kentucky secondary that hasn't really been tested fully yet. The Wildcats don't have much of a pass rush either. I prefer Kentucky when in a 'dog role. Before upsetting Florida, the Wildcats had defeated South Carolina by six points and Tennessee Chattanooga by only five points as a 33-point home favorite. | |||||||
10-09-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech | 32-29 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
Cincinnati exposed Notre Dame last week for what the Irish really are, a team whose luck ran out when they met a really good defense. Notre Dame meets another outstanding defense here in Virginia Tech. The Hokies give up the 10th-fewest points per game in the country. They held Sam Howell and North Carolina to 10 points. The Tar Heels are averaging 44.5 points in their other four games. The Irish can't dent a really strong defense because they lack a star quarterback, have a mediocre-at-best offensive line and no star wide receivers. Their best pass catcher is tight end is Michael Mayer and he's banged-up dealing with a groin injury. Virginia Tech also has the advantage of having had two weeks to rest and prepare. The Hokies were idle last week. | |||||||
10-09-21 | Florida State v. North Carolina OVER 63.5 | 35-25 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 53 m | Show | |
North Carolina is averaging 37.6 points and has a top-20 offense spearheaded by one of the best QB's in college football, Sam Howell. But what's scary about the Tar Heels is they still have room to improve offensively. That could come against Florida State, which gives up 31.4 points and ranks 103rd in pass defense. Howell is on a streak of four straight 300 passing yards games. The Tar Heels are big favorites here, but I expect Florida State to contribute its share of points. North Carolina has a below average defense. Seminoles QB Jordan Travis holds the school record for most career rushing yards. The Tar Heels rank 72nd in rush defense. Their defense has come up with only three takeaways. | |||||||
10-09-21 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47 | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
Good luck to Bo Nix and Auburn's offense. They will need it here. Georgia is the No. 1 defensive team in the nation. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense giving up an insanely-low 4.6 points a game and are No. 1 in total yards and pass defense. Auburn has some good running backs. But the Bulldogs have the fourth-best run defense, too. Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs probably are going to run even more than their 62 percent because their star QB, JT Daniels, isn't likely to play due to a back injury. The Bulldogs also play at a very slow tempo. Auburn ranks 15th in run defense giving up 90 yards on the ground and just 2.5 yards per carry. | |||||||
10-08-21 | Edmonton Elks +10 v. Winnipeg | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Winnipeg is the best team in the Canadian Football League at 7-1. Edmonton has been one of the most disappointing at 2-5. The Elks are in desperation mode to turn around their wretched season. They get back their star QB, Trevor Harris, who has missed the past two games. The line is at double-digits. It's enough to get me involved with the Elks. Winnipeg has a very strong home field. But the Elks' two victories have come in away games with upset wins against Calgary and British Columbia. The Bombers have a two-game lead in the Western Division so they don't have the urgency Edmonton does. Edmonton has dangerous skill position weapons. The quality of these weapons is raised with the return of Harris. Elks running back James Wilder Jr. leads the CFL in rushing. Derel Walker, Greg Ellingson, Teuvan Smith and Shai Ross are all talented receivers. The Blue Bombers are going to be without Kenny Lawler, their star wide receiver who leads the CFL in receiving yards. He is suspended. There's also some unique scheduling here. Winnipeg already has beaten Edmonton, 37-22, on Sept. 18. The teams meet again next week in Edmonton. So the Blue Bombers may not want to show too much, or run up a score against the Elks knowing they'll be playing right away again. | |||||||
10-08-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -135 | 14-6 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Many teams have trouble playing at quirky Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are one of them. Boston has lost in eight of its last 10 visits to Tropicana Field, including a 5-0 defeat in Game 1 of this series on Thursday. The Rays are a dominating 46-17 in their last 63 home contests. Chris Sale gets the call for Boston on the comeback trail after missing last season and most of this year following Tommy John surgery. Sale went 5-1 with a 3.16 ERA in nine starts. He last pitched on Sunday against the Nationals on the road giving up two runs on four hits in 2 1/3 innings. I don't know if Sale can ever reach his former dominant form. The Rays are going with Shane Baz, who just might be their most talented pitcher. Baz had a 2.06 ERA in 17 Double-A starts and has a 2.03 ERA in three big league starts going against the Blue Jays, Marlins and Yankees. I'm not sure if the Red Sox are ready for him. Boston's offense is hampered with J.D. Martinez out. | |||||||
10-08-21 | Temple +30 v. Cincinnati | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
Cincinnati is coming off one of its biggest wins ever, a road victory last week against then No. 9 ranked Notre Dame. No doubt the Bearcats are good, darn good. But the linesmaker isn't giving Temple enough respect here. Like other schools, Temple had its 2020 season disrupted by COVID-19. They weren't even able to scrimmage until October. So the Owls' 1-6 2020 season is not indicative of who they are. Temple has been well-coached and enjoyed good success during the previous five years before 2020. Things are back to normal for Temple. The Owls have a winning record. They showed their potential, upsetting Memphis, 34-31, as 11-point home 'dogs last week. Cincinnati has the far superior defense, but the Owls don't lack firepower. Wide receiver Jaden Blue is a pro prospect. QB D'Wan Mathis is off his finest performance completing 35 passes to a dozen different receivers against Memphis for 322 yards and three TD's. The two teams did not meet last year. But in three meetings from 2017-2019, Temple beat Cincinnati twice and lost, 15-13, in 2019 when the Bearcats returned a 99-yard defensive conversion in the fourth quarter. The Owls have covered 68 percent of the time they've been a road 'dog the last 31 times. It's asking too much of Cincinnati to cover this large of a number against an underrated foe following one of their all-time best victories. | |||||||
10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5 | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
Even in today's NFL where the rules are greatly skewed toward offense, a lot has to go right for this many points to be scored. I don't see the Rams-Seahawks combining for this many points on a short week where game-planning is condensed. The Rams' defense appears down from last season. That's not a surprise. After all, they ranked No. 1 defensively last year and their star defensive coordinator, Brandon Stanley, is now the Chargers' head coach. Raheem Morris is LA's third defensive coordinator in three years. He's a downgrade from Stanley. Having said that, though, the Rams still had held their last 17 regular season opponents under 30 points until losing, 37-20, to the explosive Cardinals this past Sunday. The Rams have Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, arguably the best players at their respective positions. The Seahawks' mediocre offensive line has had a great degree of difficulty dealing with Donald. The teams met three times last season. The Rams held the Seahawks to an average of 15 points and 301 yards. Russell Wilson is putting together another fantastic season. Seattle, however, ranks 29th in third down yardage. Wilson has the second-highest sack rate on third down, too, behind only the Texans' overmatched rookie QB Davis Mills. So the Seahawks will have to do much of their damage on their first two downs. The Rams were held to a season-low 20 points against Arizona. LA's final TD came in garbage time, too. Darrell Henderson looked good after missing the previous week with a rib injury. Sean McVay realizes he may have abandoned his ground attack too early against the Cardinals. So the Rams could be running more than usual plus McVay wants to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands. That's a plus for the Under. | |||||||
10-07-21 | White Sox v. Astros OVER 7.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
Neither of the first two postseason baseball games went Over the total. I see that changing here because this total is set too low. The White Sox have scored 5 or more runs in six of their last seven games. They finished with the fifth highest batting average in the majors and scored the seventh-most runs. Houston's offense is even more impressive. The Astros rank first in runs and batting average. They are averaging 7.6 runs in their last three games. Lance McCullers and Lance Lynn, these Game 1 starters, are good but not dominant pitchers. Lynn has a bad history versus the Astros with a 4.41 lifetime ERA in 14 appearances, including 13 starts. | |||||||
10-06-21 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
Adam Wainwright goes against Max Scherzer in this winner-take-all playoff game. The oddsmaker is expecting a low-scoring game given this total. That sure makes sense given the pitching matchup and rested bullpens. I can easily envision a 4-3 type of game. The Dodgers are once again overpriced here. They are so overpriced that I can afford some insurance by taking 1 1/2 runs on the run line with the underdog Cardinals and not have to pay a premium price to do it. I have the utmost respect for Scherezer, who has been great since joining the Dodgers going 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA. This isn't a fade on him, but a value play on the Cardinals, who have been fantastic down the stretch going 35-16 during their last 51 games. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Cardinals would be a mind-blowing 21-1 in their last 22 games! St. Louis is 11-1 the past 12 times as an underdog. They are 17-4 in their last 21 games facing a righty starter, including winning the past eight times. The 40-year-old Wainwright showed he's far from washed up. He is 17-7 with a 3.05 ERA . He was tremendous down the stretch going 6-0 with a 2.44 ERA during his last eight starts. Career-wise against the Dodgers, Wainwright is 7-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 17 appearances, including 14 starts. | |||||||
10-06-21 | Sun v. Sky UNDER 155.5 | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Connecticut was the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA this season giving up less than 70 points a game. The Sun also ranked No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 3 in 3-point defense. But after losing, 86-83, to Chicago this past Sunday the Sun is on the brink of elimination down 2-1 in this semifinal series. If the Suns are to even things they will need to do it with defense. They certainly have that capability. This is going to be a very physical and intense game. The Sky have done a great job keeping Jonquel Jones and the Sun's inside game in check. Chicago has surrendered an average of 77.2 points in regulation during its five playoff games. This is down from the 81.9 points it permitted during the regular season. | |||||||
10-06-21 | Ottawa v. Toronto -8.5 | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
Toronto should take care of business at home against Ottawa. The Argos are 3-0 SU, 2-0-1 ATS at home this season. The Redblacks have the worst defense in the CFL and are below average on offense. Ottawa has been outscored by 82 points in its seven games. That's the worst point differential in the league. The Argos, though, won't be looking past Ottawa. The Redblacks and their new QB, Caleb Evans, got Toronto's attention with an upset home victory against Edmonton last week. Evans threw 3 TD's in that contest while showing off excellent mobility. That was his first CFL game. Chris Jones is a defensive consultant for Toronto and one of the sharper defensive minds in the league. He now has film on Evans. I'm sure the Argos will be looking to keep Evans inside the pocket. Before the Redblacks sprung their upset of Edmonton, they had lost and failed to cover five straight games with all of those defeats coming by 12 or more points. Ottawa is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games and has failed to cover the past eight times facing an Eastern Conference team. | |||||||
10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Starting pitchers Gerrit Cole and Nathan Eovaldi have proven themselves in the postseason. Cole is 8-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 13 playoff starts. Eovaldi is 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in six career postseason appearances that includes two starts. Neither manager is going to hold back with his top bullpen pitchers either as the winner won't play again until Thursday. Weather-wise favors the Under with wind blowing in at seven miles per hour and possible light rain in the forecast. These teams have an Under bias, too, in their rivalry. The Under is 12-3-1 the past 16 meetings. The Under also has cashed six of the last seven times the teams have met at Fenway Park. | |||||||
10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
The oddsmaker considers these teams even if you factor three points for home field advantage. The Chargers have a weaker home-field edge than most teams. Still, even given that, I believe the Chargers are superior to Las Vegas. Credit to Derek Carr and to Las Vegas for opening 3-0. That hasn't occurred for the Raiders in 19 years. But in studying this matchup, I give the key checkmarks to the Chargers. I like Justin Herbert better than Carr. The Chargers have the best all-purpose running back on the field in Austin Ekeler. LA also rates a strong wide receiving edge with Keenan Allen and a rejuvenated Mike Williams. Those two have been one of the best wide receiving duos in the NFL this season. LA also has a much improved offensive line, while the Raiders' offensive line still is in transition. Defensively, the Raiders are middle-of-the-pack. The Chargers give up four fewer points per game than the Raiders, have the better pass defense and double the number of takeaways Las Vegas has. Joey Bosa is the best pass rusher on the field and Derwin James would be the best player in either secondary if he can suit up, which he expects to do. I have serious doubts about how good the Raiders defense is going to look on the road against Herbert. The Chargers have proven vulnerable on the ground. Las Vegas, however, ranks among the bottom-eight in rushing. LA upset Washington and Kansas City on the road. The Chargers held the potent Cowboys to 20 points. Dallas is averaging 35.3 points in its three other games. The Raiders had a nice upset win at home against the Ravens in overtime opening week. The Raiders then upset the Steelers on the road. That win, though, doesn't look as impressive now considering the Steelers are 1-3 and have been outscored by 26 points. The Raiders then barely escaped the Dolphins and backup QB Jacoby Brissett winning, 31-28 in overtime, at home last week. The Dolphins are 1-3. They have managed just 34 points in their three games not against Las Vegas. | |||||||
10-03-21 | Bucs -6.5 v. Patriots | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 31 m | Show |
Forget all the hype leading up to this matchup, the most anticipated regular season game in years. This is a a one-sided matchup. The Patriots can't come close to matching Tampa Bay's firepower and New England's defense, while good, is not great. The Patriots can defend well against bad offenses and bad QB's. New England can't stop an elite offense and quarterback such as Tom Brady, though. Bill Belichick doesn't have enough chess pieces to stop Brady from effectively using Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, who has scored as many TD's as the Patriots have produced as a team. Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots' top cornerback, remains out. Game manager rookie QB Mac Jones isn't going to be able to keep up. The Buccaneers have an elite run defense. Jones lacks experience and explosive wideouts. His most dependable all-purpose running back, James White, is sidelined with a hip injury. The Patriots have no ability to play from behind. I'm expecting a Tampa Bay blowout. | |||||||
10-03-21 | Seahawks +3 v. 49ers | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 39 m | Show | |
Seattle swept San Francisco last season and the Seahawks should win this game because of Russell Wilson. He has the arms, legs and intelligence to take advantage of the 49ers' cluster injury situation in their secondary. Wilson is on pace for career highs in many of the major categories. The 49ers have trouble with mobile QB's. Wilson gives the Seahawks a monster QB edge. The 49ers are a running team lacking a lead runner due to injuries. Seattle has dominated this series from a point spread perspective going 13-5-1 ATS during the last 19 meetings. The 49ers also have dropped their last five games at Levi's Stadium. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,160 |
Dan Kaiser | $1,039 |
Tom Macrina | $650 |
Ray Monohan | $618 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Jesse Schule | $418 |
Big Al McMordie | $350 |
Marc Lawrence | $300 |
Mike Lundin | $293 |
Joseph D'Amico | $268 |