02-09-24 |
Hornets +14.5 v. Bucks | | 84-120 |
Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
As bad as the Hornets are, the Bucks are in no position to lay this many points to them. Milwaukee is 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS in its last six games. The Bucks carry a high fatigue rating, have key injuries and Doc Rivers has been a near-disaster so far as the Bucks' coach.
This is the Bucks' fifth game in seven days and second in two days after they were buried, 129-105, by the Timberwolves at home last night. Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton, the Bucks' second and third-best players, missed that game because of ankle injuries.
The Hornets have lost nine in a row, although they've covered in their last two games. Charlotte also has injuries, but have Cody Martin back. Clearly, though, my handicap is a fade on the Bucks, who have failed to cover 17 of 21 times against sub .500 opponents this season. |
02-09-24 |
Dayton -1.5 v. VCU | Top | 47-49 |
Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Dayton is 18th-ranked in the country, leads the Atlantic 10 Conference and has won 16 of its last 17 games. But this matchup against VCU holds special meaning for the Flyers.
It's their revenge game of the year. VCU defeated Dayton, 68-56, in the Atlantic 10 title game last season.
VCU is good again this season at 15-8, 7-3 in conference. But 19-3 Dayton is better. The Flyers are a better offensive team than they were when they lost to VCU last season. The Flyers average three points more per game than the Rams and rank fifth in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Dayton's DaRon Holmes II leads the A-10 in scoring at 19.7 points per game.
The oddsmaker agrees that Dayton is the superior team, opening the Flyers a road favorite. I'm going to back Dayton on the money line with the line as short as it is. |
02-08-24 |
Nuggets v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 114-106 |
Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The Lakers have picked up their pace winning eight of their last 12 games. This includes three straight victories to close out a six-game road trip. Sometimes it's dangerous to back a team playing their first home game following a lengthy road trip. That certainly was the case with the Clippers last night. They lost to the Pelicans by 11 points as a 6 1/2-point home favorite. The Clippers had been playing well, too.
But this is a different case and much different situation. The Clippers only had one day of rest after returning to Los Angeles. The Lakers concluded their road swing this past Monday giving them two full days of rest and preparation.
This also is the Lakers' biggest game of the season and it isn't just because they're playing the defending world champion Nuggets.
It's a special night because the Lakers organization will be honoring the late Kobe Bryant before the game unveiling a statue of him. The game is going to be heavily attended with many dignitaries. It is being shown nationally on TNT.
"Win one for Kobe,'' will be the Lakers' motto. So I'm expecting maximum motivation and effort.
The Nuggets are off back-to-back home victories against the 15-35 Trail Blazers. Not exactly a worthy opponent. Denver has lost in its two previous road games, falling to the Thunder and getting blown out by the Knicks. |
02-08-24 |
Pistons v. Blazers -5.5 | | 128-122 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
The Pistons are 3-20 on the road this season. Their latest road victory came last night in a 133-120 upset of the Kings. The Pistons achieved this unlikely victory without injured Cade Cunningham and Bojan Bogdanovic leaving them with only nine players.
I don't see the Pistons, losers of 43 of 50 games, pulling off another upset on consecutive nights even if Cunningham, the team's leading scorer, returns to their lineup. Bogdanovic was traded to the Knicks today leaving the Pistons short-handed again.
Portland is 15-35, but playing better. The Trail Blazers upset both the Bucks and 76ers at home before traveling to Denver to play two straight road games against the Nuggets. They lost both of those games to the defending world champions, but covered each game. Portland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games.
Now the Trail Blazers return home, while stepping way down in class. They have had ample rest and preparation time, too, having last played this past Sunday. |
02-08-24 |
Washington State v. Oregon State +9 | | 64-58 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Forget Oregon State being just 3-8 in the Pac-12 Conference and 11-11 overall. The Beavers are much stronger when playing at home. They are 11-2 at Gill Coliseum. One of the victories was an 83-80 win against then ninth-ranked Arizona on Jan. 25. The Beavers were 18 1/2-point 'dogs in that game. As home underdogs this season, the Beavers are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS. Washington is mediocre on the road with a 3-3 SU and ATS mark.
Oregon State gave Washington State a battle in Pullman, Wash., on Jan. 4 losing, 65-58. The Beavers were missing their third-leading scorer, Dexter Akanno, in that game. |
02-08-24 |
Canucks v. Bruins -129 | | 0-4 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
No disrespect to the Canucks, who have been playing great hockey. But I want the Bruins going for me after their coach, Jim Montgomery, was highly critical of his team following Boston's 4-1 loss to the Flames coming off break.
Prior to that defeat, Boston had gone 7-1 in its last eight games and had only dropped two games all season in regulation to Western Conference opponents.
Vancouver wasn't that sharp either in its return from break. But the Canucks got past the Hurricanes, 3-2, on the road despite being outshot. |
02-07-24 |
Pelicans +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 117-106 |
Win | 100 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
The Pelicans are in prime position to ambush the Clippers.
The Clippers returned to Los Angeles on Tuesday after finishing a seven-game, 11-day road trip with a victory against the Hawks in Atlanta this past Monday night. There were 293 points scored in the Clippers' crazy, 149-144, victory against the Hawks. Kawhi Leonard and James Harden each played more than 37 minutes in that game.
Now the Clippers have to get used to being home having played in a different arena for the past seven games. LA has to be feeling good having gone 6-1 on its road trip. The Clippers are not only in a letdown spot, but their concentration could be off having been gone for so long. They also might be dealing with dead legs in action for the third time in four days and fourth time in six days.
New Orleans is playing well, too, riding a three-game win streak. The Pelicans don't have nearly the fatigue factor LA does. This is just the Pelicans' second game in five days.
The teams are meeting for the third time this season. The road team has won each of the first two games. Attendance could be less than normal for the Clippers because of the heavy rains that hit southern California. |
02-07-24 |
Spurs +8 v. Heat | | 104-116 |
Loss | -105 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Miami hasn't gotten going this season, losing eight of its last 11 games. But the Heat did win a satisfying game beating in-state rival Orlando, 121-95, last night.
The Heat are 1-3-1 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. They also have been terrible in the role of a large home favorite failing to cover 17 of the past 22 times when laying five or more points.
This is the start of the Spurs' nine-game rodeo trip so they'll want to get off to a good start.
Prior to their win against the Magic, the Heat were averaging 101.7 points in their previous 13 games. The Spurs are averaging 114.6 points in regulation during their last 15 games. |
02-07-24 |
Furman -2.5 v. Mercer | | 69-78 |
Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
Furman is in better form than Mercer and has too much offense for the Bears to stay close.
The Paladins rank 33rd in the nation in scoring averaging 81.3 points a game. They have scored 82 or more points in five of their past eight games.
Mercer averages 11 points fewer per game than Furman. The Bears also are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country making only 65.6 percent. They are 2-6 in their last eight games. |
02-06-24 |
St. Mary's v. Pacific +21.5 | | 84-43 |
Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
Saint Mary's probably could name its score. The Gaels did that when these two teams met on Jan. 25. The Gaels embarrassed Pacific, 76-28.
So why back Pacific in the rematch besides the Tigers being at home this time?
The timing. Not only can the Gaels be forgiven if they enter this matchup overconfident, but it's also a huge flat spot for them.
Saint Mary's is off a monster, 64-62, road upset victory against its major rival, Gonzaga, this past Saturday night. It's going to be extremely difficult for the Gaels to get motivated for this matchup.
The Gaels are 18-6 and lead the West Coast Conference with a 9-0 mark. However, they are just mediocre point spread-wise with an 11-11 ATS record.
It's asking a lot for Saint Mary's to cover this large number given the situation and that its offense averages just 72.5 points. The Gaels rank 254th in field goal percentage and 289th in free throw percentage. |
02-06-24 |
Bucks +4 v. Suns | | 106-114 |
Loss | -115 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Milwaukee is concluding its five-game road trip here. The Bucks are 1-3 on their road swing. This is a good time to buy low on the Bucks coming off a 123-108 Sunday loss to the Jazz.
The Bucks had wide open shots in that loss to Utah. But they blew a 19-point lead, collapsing in the fourth quarter. The high mountain altitude in Utah might have had something to do with that.
Milwaukee is the second-highest scoring team in the NBA and fourth-best shooting team. The Bucks should fare much better with a full day rest and getting out of the mountain air. Phoenix is just an average defensive team.
The Bucks have won the past three times they've faced the Suns in the regular season. Milwaukee also draws Phoenix with the Suns in a vulnerable spot.
The Suns concluded a seven-game, 12-day road trip this past Sunday blowing out Washington. That was a huge, motivational game for the Suns because of Bradley Beal's return to face his former Wizards team.
Now the Suns are playing at home for the first time since Jan. 22. Before they had embarked on their seven-game road trip, their longest road swing had been three away games in a row. The Suns did that three times. Phoenix failed to cover in their first home game back during each of those three road games in a row going 0-3 ATS. Look for that pattern to continue here. |
02-06-24 |
Avalanche -109 v. Devils | | 3-5 |
Loss | -109 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
The Avalanche are the No. 1 scoring team in the NHL. They were held to just one goal by the Rangers last night coming off break. Colorado got the rust off with that game. The Devils, though, haven't played in 10 days. They ranked 27th defensively. New Jersey also has a losing home record. |
02-06-24 |
Oklahoma State v. Houston -20 | Top | 63-79 |
Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years.
Even giving up 78 points in that game, the Cougars still rank first in the country in fewest points allowed per game at 54 and in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma State is the worst team in the Big 12 Conference. The Cowboys only average 71.1 points, which ranks 259th. They also rank 314th in free throw percentage.
The Cowboys are actually a little fat and happy, though, after upsetting Kansas State at home this past Saturday. That was just their second win in their past nine games.
Texas has a strong record as a big favorite covering 62 percent of the past 104 times when they've been chalk of more than 10 points. |
02-05-24 |
Kansas v. Kansas State +4.5 | | 70-75 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Fresh off a 78-65 home victory against fourth-ranked Houston, Kansas is looking good. But now the Jayhawks find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. They have to travel to Kansas State for this in-state, Big 12 Conference rivalry matchup.
Kansas State is at low ebb with four consecutive losses. The Wildcats, though, have played tough competition during this span - road games against Iowa State and Houston and home games vs Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Kansas State is capable of winning outright. The Wildcats bet LSU and Baylor while losing to Texas Tech on the road by one point.
The Wildcats are 10-2 at home. This is their biggest home game of the season - their Super Bowl.
"The atmosphere we'll play in on Monday will be very comparable to the atmosphere Houston played in today," Kansas coach Bill Self was quoted as saying on Saturday following the Jayhawks' upset win against the Cougars. "We'll have to go over there and play well ..." |
02-05-24 |
Raptors +11.5 v. Pelicans | | 100-138 |
Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Toronto is 2-11 in its last 13 games, 1-7 in its last eight games and playing its fifth straight road game. But on closer inspection, I find the Raptors to be a good value play here.
Toronto hasn't been healthy. Now the Raptors are after getting back RJ Barrett, Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley. They all played in the Raptors' last game two days ago. That was against Oklahoma City. The Raptors were 8 1/2-point underdogs. Toronto took the Thunder to double overtime before losing but covering.
The Raptors have had a day to rest and recuperate. They haven't played in back-to-back games since Jan. 17-18. So the fatigue factor isn't that bad. New Orleans is laying double-digits despite being in an awkward scheduling spot. This is the Pelicans' sixth game in 11 days. They just concluded a four-game road trip with a one-point victory against the 10-40 Spurs this past Friday. The Pelicans pulled that game out when Zion Williamson scored with 3.8 seconds left.
After this matchup, the Pelicans go back on the road for four more games. So their concentration level could be off. |
02-05-24 |
Warriors v. Nets UNDER 237.5 | Top | 109-98 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
Both the Warriors and Nets are coming off high-scoring games. The Warriors lost 141-134 in overtime to the Hawks this past Saturday. Brooklyn rolled past the 76ers, 136-121, also this past Saturday.
Those games may have influenced the oddsmaker to open what I consider an artificially high total for this matchup.
Golden State had held its previous two opponents to an average of 104 points before losing to the Hawks. Atlanta is the third-highest scoring team in the NBA and plays at the fifth-fasted pace. The Nets are an entirely different opponent.
Brooklyn is average defensively, but below par offensively ranking 25th in field goal percentage. The Nets also are the fifth-worst free throwing shooting team in the league. More importantly, the Nets play at the second-slowest tempo in the NBA. Golden State ranks 12th in tempo. The Warriors' interior defense is improved with the return of Draymond Green from suspension. |
02-04-24 |
Bucks v. Jazz +1.5 | Top | 108-123 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
At first glance this opening line might look strange with the 33-16 Bucks around a pick'em against the 24-26 Jazz. But the spot sets up extremely well for Utah. So I'm on the Jazz. The Bucks came back to beat Dallas on the road Saturday night. Milwaukee trailed by 25 points at one stage. The Bucks' three best players all logged heavy minutes in the victory. Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton each played more than 38 minutes. Giannis Antetokounmpo logged more than 40 minutes. It wouldn't be shocking if any of those three were rested today. I'm getting down now on the Jazz because the line would change if Antetokounmpo or Lillard sat out. Note, too, the Bucks are going into Utah's high altitude. Milwaukee also is in transition with new coach Doc Rivers. Beating Dallas was the Bucks' first win under Rivers this season. The Jazz are 15-7 at home - and rested. They last played this past Thursday. The Jazz lost to the 76ers, 127-124, in their last game. Philadelphia didn't have injured Joel Embiid. However, the Jazz had just returned from a six-game road trip and been idle for only one day before hosting the 76ers. Now they are rested and ready to go with a strong home court. |
02-04-24 |
Magic v. Pistons +7 | | 111-99 |
Loss | -115 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
I know it's difficult to get behind the Pistons. But they are in an excellent situational spot here.
Orlando is playing for the fifth time in eight days. It's the Magic's fourth consecutive road contest. They just rallied from 17 points down to upset the Timberwolves this past Friday. Orlando has a bigger matchup up next - on the road against in-state division rival Miami in a battle for first place in the Southeast Division. That game goes Tuesday.
The Pistons have revenge motivation for an embarrassing, 123-91, loss to the Magic on Dec. 8. Following this matchup, the Pistons go on the road for a five-game West Coast trip. They won't play at home again until Feb. 24.
So, yes, the spot is ripe for Detroit. But are the Pistons good enough to cover this number? They have been in their last three games. During this span, the Pistons upset the Thunder by 16 points as a 12-point home 'dog, lost by seven to the hot Cavaliers as a 13 1/2-point road 'dog and covered in their last game at home to the Clippers. Now the Pistons are dropping down in class after facing those three strong opponents. |
02-03-24 |
St. Mary's +4.5 v. Gonzaga | | 64-62 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
I'm not convinced Gonzaga is better than Saint Mary's so I'm taking these many points. The Bulldogs have fewer wins than Saint Mary's and have battled inconsistency. Saint Mary's is in top form winning 14 of its last 15 games, including nine in a row.
Gonzaga is 0-4 against Quadrant 1 opponents. The Bulldogs are ranked 26th in the NCAA Net Rankings. The Gaels are ranked 21st in the NCAA Net Rankings.
The Gaels give up the third-fewest points in the country at 58.4. Their offense has picked up where they are averaging 78.8 points per game during their last six games. |
02-03-24 |
Tennessee v. Kentucky +1.5 | Top | 103-92 |
Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus.
Kentucky defeated Tennessee in both meetings last season. Kentucky won those games by a combined 19 points. The Wildcats close their regular season at Tennessee. So it is paramount they beat the Volunteers in Lexington, Ky.
Both teams got caught peeking ahead to this marquee matchup in their last game. Kentucky blew a four-point home lead with 20 seconds and lost in overtime to Florida this past Wednesday. That was just the Wildcats' second home loss in 12 home contests. Tennessee looked far worse, though. The Volunteers lost, 63-59, to South Carolina as a 14-point home favorite this past Tuesday. Tennessee is going to have to play far, far better than that to stay competitive against the Wildcats.
The Wildcats own the deeper bench and have a highly-underrated shooting guard in Antonio Reeves. Not only is he an elite defensive player, but he's scored 19 or more points in eight of the last 10 games. |
02-03-24 |
Weber State +2 v. Northern Colorado | | 82-63 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a power ratings play. These teams have similar records, but I have Weber State as the superior team. So I will back the underdog. Weber State ranks 65th in the nation defensively holding foes to 65.2 points per game. That's remarkable for a Big Sky Conference team. Northern Colorado has had some high-scoring games in its last few games, but the Bears have played weak competition during this span. They rank 326th defensively allowing 78.2 points per game. |
02-03-24 |
Houston v. Kansas +1.5 | | 65-78 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Maybe it's a sucker's play. But I'm not going to turn down Kansas as a home underdog to Houston. The last time the Jayhawks were an underdog in Allen Fieldhouse was 2021 when they rolled past future national champion Baylor, 71-58.
Kansas is 11-0 at home this season. This includes a win and cover against third-ranked Connecticut.
Houston has the top defense in the country, but is 2-2 in its Big 12 road games, 1-3 ATS. One of those conference victories came in overtime against Texas this past Monday. The Cougars are 3-6 ATS in road/neutral site games.
Texas is a terrible free throw shooting team and scores five fewer points per game than Kansas. |
02-03-24 |
The Citadel +7.5 v. East Tennessee State | | 60-62 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
East Tennessee State has only been favored once in its last eight games. That was against VMI. The Buccaneers were 10 1/2-point chalk and ended up winning by one point.
The Buccaneers are a mediocre team with a 3-6 record in the Southern Conference. They are one of the worst perimeter shooting teams in the country.
I liked what The Citadel did in its last game. The Bulldogs nearly upset Furman, losing by three points in overtime as a 7-point 'dog. |
02-02-24 |
Magic +8 v. Wolves | Top | 108-106 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup between the Magic, who ranked fifth in the NBA defensively, and the Timberwolves, who give up the fewest points per game. That's why the oddsmaker has set a low total. So I find this to be a lot of points to get.
The Timberwolves are a bit fat and happy after a blowout victory against the Mavericks two days ago.
Orlando has the best point spread mark in the NBA at 31-17, which is 64.5 percent. The Magic have held two of their last three opponents to 98 points, the Spurs and Suns. That was 18 points below the Suns' season average. |
02-02-24 |
Siena v. Rider -10.5 | | 50-91 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
Siena is 3-17 and tied for last in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference with a 2-7 mark. However, one of the Saints' victories came against Rider.
Rider is having a disappointing season, but still is a much superior team to Siena. The Broncos have had this matchup circled since that, 67-65, early December road loss.
The Broncos are playing better. They are off consecutive road upset victories against St. Peter's and Mount St. Mary's. They held those two opponents to an average of 59.5 points.
Siena has dropped four in a row. The Saints have injuries and trouble scoring, averaging only 50.3 points in their last three games. |
02-02-24 |
Quinnipiac -6.5 v. Manhattan | | 77-71 |
Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Manhattan is one of the worst teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Jaspers don't have much of a home-court edge and are weak both offensively and defensively where they have permitted at least 81 points in three of their last four games.
Quinnipiac is the best team in the MAAC with an 8-1 league mark and 16-4 overall record. The Bobcats average more than 78 points a game and are the ninth-best free throw shooting team in the nation. Manhattan averaged 12 fewer points per game than the Bobcats.
Quinnipiac had no problem handling Manhattan at home on Jan. 7 winning, 76-59.
So I find this number short. |
02-01-24 |
76ers +4.5 v. Jazz | | 127-124 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Let's get the bad out of the way first. No Joel Embiid and the 76ers are concluding a five-game road trip here. They have lost the first four games of their road swing. But things aren't good on the Utah side either. The Jazz are 2-5 in their past seven games with the only victories during this time frame coming against the Wizards and Hornets. Those two bottom feeders have a combined record of 19-74. The Jazz also are in a tough situational spot. This is their first home contest since Jan. 18. The Jazz just concluded six consecutive road games with losses to the Nets and Knicks this past Monday and Tuesday nights. Embiid may be out for a while. The 76ers need to prove they can win without him. They shouldn't lack motivation to salvage one game from their road trip. They also have revenge incentive for a 120-109 home loss to the Jazz on Jan. 6 when Embiid also was out. There's a good chance the 76ers get back underrated Tyrese Maxey, who has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, and versatile Nicolas Batum. |
02-01-24 |
Albany v. Vermont UNDER 148 | Top | 59-81 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Albany is a high-scoring, up-tempo team with a weak defense. Vermont is just the opposite. The Catamounts rank 23rd in the nation defensively. They've held their last four foes to an average of 58.5 points.
Based on history, situation and statistical breakdowns, I strongly look for Vermont to control tempo, slow down Albany and have this total go Under.
Only once during the past seven meetings between these America East Conference rivals has Albany reached 68 points. The Great Danes have been held to an average of fewer than 64 points during this span.
I don't look for that to change. Albany is playing its third straight road game. Vermont has the best defense in the conference. The Catamounts also play at one of the slowest paces in the country ranking 346th. They rarely foul or turn the ball over. They should control the tempo being home and with Albany once again on the road.
Vermont is the best team right now in the league. The Catamounts aren't a top-50 caliber team, but they do rank 103rd in net rankings. Albany is averaging 64.6 points in its three games against top-104 teams Seton Hall, UMass and Drexel. |
02-01-24 |
Appalachian State v. Georgia State +6 | | 81-71 |
Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
I'm going to buy low on Georgia State. The Panthers have lost four in a row to drop below .500 on the season. Those four defeats, though, all came on the road. Georgia State is 6-1 at home, including winning its last six home games.
The Panthers should really be motivated for this matchup against the top team in the Sun Belt. The Panthers also are off a frustrating overtime loss to Coastal Carolina in their last game.
The Mountaineers rank 26th in the country defensively. Georgia State, however, averages 78.9 points a game and is a very good free throw shooting team. |
01-31-24 |
Mavs +14 v. Wolves | Top | 87-121 |
Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
I'm more interested in the Mavericks when they are underdogs - and they certainly are underdogs in this matchup judging by the lopsided point spread. It's way too many points for the Timberwolves to be laying. Dallas has ended its mini-slump winning two of its past three games, including nipping the Magic, 131-129, at home two days ago. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been picking up the slack for Kyrie Irving's absence. He had 36 points against Orlando. The Mavericks are 12-9 on the road. They have covered seven of the last 11 times when getting points. Dallas also defeated the Timberwolves, 115-108, in the last meeting on Jan. 7 at home. The Timberwolves are coming off a satisfying road win against the Thunder, in which Minnesota coach Chris Finch challenged his defense, but are just 3-3 in their last six games. It's not an ideal situational spot either for the Timberwolves being their first home game in nine days following four consecutive road games. Minnesota is 0-2 in its last two home contests losing to the Hornets and Thunder. |
01-31-24 |
Pelicans -135 v. Rockets | | 110-99 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The Rockets enter this matchup a little fat and happy having buried the Lakers at home two days ago. Houston's three previous games were against the Nets, Hornets and Trail Blazers.
Let's contrast this with the Pelicans. New Orleans is in stop-the-pain mode with a three-game losing streak. Those losses, however, came on the road to the Celtics and Bucks and at home to the Thunder, who have the best point spread mark in the NBA.
The Pelicans are at full strength. They own a big edge in this matchup from beyond the arc ranking third in the league in 3-point accuracy compared to the Rockets, who rate 27th in 3-point shooting percentage. |
01-31-24 |
Senators v. Red Wings -106 | | 3-2 |
Loss | -106 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a huge revenge game for the Red Wings. They lost 5-1 to the Senators on Dec. 9 when Dylan Larkin was injured. The Red Wings haven't forgotten about that. Detroit has been playing much better since then going 9-2-1 this month. Ottawa, by contrast, is 5-7-2 this month.
The Red Wings have been idle since Saturday, while the Senators are in action for the fourth time in seven days. |
01-31-24 |
Furman v. The Citadel +7.5 | | 82-79 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Furman is a high-scoring team, but this is too many points for the Paladins to lay on the road.
The Paladins are 1-7 in their true road games this season and 2-7-1 ATS in road/neutral site games.
The Citadel gives up seven fewer points per game than Furman and is more accurate from the field and 3-point range than the Paladins. |
01-30-24 |
San Diego State v. Colorado State -1.5 | Top | 71-79 |
Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
It's gut check time for Colorado State after consecutive road losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Rams are in the NCAA Tournament hunt with a 15-5 record, but blew an 11-point lead with 1:11 left to fall to Wyoming in overtime this past Saturday in their last game.
The Rams are home now where they are 10-1, including 3-0 in Mountain West Conference games and with a victory against 19th-ranked New Mexico. San Diego State has been idle for a week. The Aztecs are 0-5-1 ATS in true road games and have been known to struggle when playing in high altitude venues, which Moby Arena is.
The Aztecs are 16-4, but have feasted on weak competition going 14-0 vs Quad 2 or lower opponents and 2-4 against Quad 1 foes. Colorado State is the seventh-best shooting team in the country. San Diego State is the second-worst shooting team in the Mountain West ahead of only Boise State. The Aztecs are the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference.
San Diego State could be rusty, too, having been idle for a week. The Aztecs have a bigger game up next when they host 17th-ranked and Mountain West leader Utah State. |
01-30-24 |
Jazz +4 v. Knicks | | 103-118 |
Loss | -109 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
I tried to step in against the Knicks with the Hornets on Monday. It was a mistake. The Hornets are an immature, gutless team. The Jazz aren't. They are well-coached, have a deep rotation and are below-the-radar with a 10-5 record this month.
Both teams carry high fatigue ratings having been in action last night. Utah is finishing its six-game road trip with this game. New York is in action for the fourth time in six days.
The Knicks have won a season-high seven in a row. They were in a flat spot against the Hornets on the road after satisfying home victories against the Heat and Nuggets. The Hornets, though, were too pathetic to even hang close. Now the Knicks return to Madison Square Garden for this matchup. The Jazz actually had the shorter distance to travel having lost to the Nets in Brooklyn last night.
The Nets humiliated the Jazz, 147-114. That was Utah's second most lopsided loss of the season. I trust Will Hardy to have his Jazz motivated and ready to play much better against the Knicks, who played their first game of the season without Julius Randle last night. Randle is out with a dislocated right shoulder. New York center Mitchell Robinson is out for the season. Randle and Robinson are the Knicks' two top rebounders.
The Knicks also didn't have OG Anunoby against the Hornets. He sat out with elbow inflammation. Randle and Anunoby are New York's second and third-leading scorers. The Knicks are fat, happy and saddled with key injuries. That's a combination for a letdown. |
01-30-24 |
Marquette v. Villanova -125 | | 85-80 |
Loss | -125 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Villanova needs this game much more than Marquette. The Wildcats are in serious stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row.
Marquette already has lost Big East Conference road games to Providence and Seton Hall. The Golden Eagles may be without their third-leading scorer, Kam Jones. He's questionable because of a sprained ankle.
The Wildcats are the No. 1 free throw shooting team in the nation. |
01-29-24 |
Wolves v. Thunder UNDER 225.5 | Top | 107-101 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
NBA teams pick up their defensive intensity during the playoffs. There are some regular-season games, though, where that playoff defensive intensity surfaces. This should be one of those matchups.
Minnesota and Oklahoma City are tied for first in the Northwest Division. Both have been pointing to this showdown. Each team got caught looking ahead, too. The Timberwolves lost, 113-112, to the Spurs this past Saturday while the Thunder were upset by the Pistons, 120-104, on Sunday.
Timberwolves coach Chris Finch ripped his team's defensive performance following the loss to the Spurs calling it disgusting and that his team was immature. I expect the Timberwolves to play far better on defense, being stung by their coaches' criticism. They are, after all, the No. 1 defensive team in the league holding opponents to an average of 107.6 points a game. The Timberwolves also rank first in defensive rebounding and No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage.
Oklahoma City ranks No. 1 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. The Thunder, though, are averaging only 106 points during their last four games if you don't count their 140-114 win against the Spurs this past Wednesday.
There were just 199 points scored during the team's last meeting when Oklahoma City won, 102-97, at Minneapolis nine days ago. |
01-29-24 |
Knicks v. Hornets +9 | | 113-92 |
Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
The Knicks have won a season-high six straight games. But don't be shocked if the Knicks stumble here against the lowly Hornets, a team they have easily beaten in all three meetings this season.
How come?
Several key factors. The Knicks are going to be without their star power forward Julius Randle for the first time this season. Randle suffered a dislocated right shoulder in New York's Saturday victory against the Heat. This is a huge concern for the Knicks and a big distraction. Remember, the Knicks also don't have center Mitchell Robinson. He's out for the season. Robinson and Randle are the Knicks' two leading rebounders.
Another important factor is the timing of this matchup. The Knicks are coming off satisfying home victories against the Heat and Nuggets. This is just their second road game in 15 days. The Knicks return home for five games in a row following this matchup starting on Tuesday with a revenge game against the Jazz. So it's a very weird scheduling spot for New York.
The Hornets upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog last Monday. Charlotte won't lack motivation being home in a triple-revenge spot against an opponent that has other things on their mind and is in a letdown situation. |
01-29-24 |
Predators +101 v. Senators | | 3-4 |
Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Nashville is one of the better road teams in the NHL and has a goalie edge with Juuse Saros back in net. Saros was rested in the Predators' last game, a 4-1 loss to the Oilers this past Saturday. Edmonton has won 16 in a row. The Predators held the Oilers to only 21 shots on goal. That was the second-fewest shots Edmonton took all season.
Ottawa is just .500 at home. The Senators pulled their goalie, Joonas Korpisalo, in their last game, a 7-2 loss to the Rangers two days ago.
The Senators rank third-from-the-bottom in defense and in penalty killing.
The Predators have dominated this series going 10-1-3 during the last 14 meetings. |
01-28-24 |
Blue Jackets v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 |
Push | 0 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
I find this total too short given the circumstances and current form of these two teams.
The Blue Jackets are the second-worst defensive team in the NHL. They have surrendered at least four goals in 14 of their last 19 games. Columbus also carries a huge fatigue factor playing for the fourth time in six days and without rest after losing, 5-4, in overtime at Vancouver last night. The Blue Jackets ran out of gas surrendering three goals in the third period to the Canucks. That doesn't bode well for this matchup.
Seattle has scored nine goals in its last two games.
Columbus, though, also has scored nine goals in its last two games and produced at least four goals in four of its last six games.
The Kraken have allowed three or more goals in six of their past seven games. |
01-28-24 |
Lions v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 31-34 |
Loss | -110 | 92 h 53 m | Show |
San Francisco has an elite defense. Detroit's defense is somewhat underrated. I don't trust Jared Goff in an outdoor big game even though there won't be bad weather. I don't consider Brock Purdy an elite quarterback. Deebo Samuel could be limited.
Those are my reasons, in a nutshell, why I don't see this rather high total going Over.
The 49ers surrendered the third-fewest points in the league at 17.5. They also have the No. 3 run defense and were sixth in takeaways. San Francisco gave up 21 or fewer points in seven of its last nine games. I seriously question how effective Goff will be on the road against this caliber of defense.
The Lions are tough to run on. They gave up the second-fewest rushing yards and were fourth in causing negative plays. Detroit hasn't yielded more than 24 points during any of its last six games. The Lions held both the Chiefs and Cowboys to just 20 points each when they played them on the road.
Purdy didn't look good against the Packers last week. Many of his throws were not accurate. The 49ers are reliant on Samuel, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. The 49ers averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel and 5.7 yards per play without him. |
01-28-24 |
Raptors +6.5 v. Hawks | | 125-126 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Yes, the Raptors are going through a rocky stage now losing eight of their last nine games.
But Atlanta isn't playing well either having lost and failed to cover in its last four games. The Hawks are an auto-fade for me in this price range.
The Hawks have by far the worst point spread mark in the NBA at 11-34 for 24 percent. They are especially terrible in this role going 1-11 ATS when favored by more than one point.
The Raptors have enough offense to take advantage of the Hawks' porous defense, which ranks in the bottom-three in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defensive percentage. |
01-27-24 |
76ers v. Nuggets -4.5 | | 105-111 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 39 m | Show |
Denver is 5-2 in its last seven games. The Nuggets' losses during this span came to the Pacers this past Thursday on the final game of their five-game road trip and to the 76ers at the start of their road trip, which was 11 days ago.
The 76ers beat Denver, 126-121, in that game. Philadelphia hit 57 percent from the floor and 48 percent from 3-point range. The 76ers also shot nine more free throws than Denver. I don't see a repeat of that with the teams now meeting in Denver. This is rapid revenge for the prideful defending world champion Nuggets.
The Nuggets are 17-4 at home. The 76ers have failed to cover in four of their last five away games with straight-up losses to the Pacers, Hawks and Bulls during this time frame. |
01-27-24 |
Colorado v. Washington State +1.5 | Top | 69-78 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31.
But it's more than that. Washington State has come together a lot more since that defeat going 5-2 in their last seven games. The Cougars are strong at home and Colorado is coming off a road win against Washington this past Wednesday. I don't see the Buffaloes knocking off both Washington and Washington State on the road. Prior to defeating Washington, Colorado had played four true road games. The Buffaloes lost and failed to cover in each of those contests.
Washington State is 9-2 at home. The Cougars won and covered against Utah and Arizona during their last two home games.
The Cougars are a better defensive team than Colorado and can take advantage of the Buffaloes' weak 3-point defense. |
01-27-24 |
Princeton -140 v. Cornell | | 68-83 |
Loss | -140 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
These are the two best teams in the Ivy League. I like Princeton to get the victory here. The Tigers are 15-1, including 8-1 on the road. Princeton has covered 64 percent of its lined games, while Cornell has a losing ATS mark. Princeton has the better defense limiting foes to 63.2 points a game, ranks third in the nation in free throw percentage and commits few turnovers. Cornell, by contrast, gives up 75.8 points a game. |
01-26-24 |
Kings v. Avalanche -140 | | 1-5 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The Kings are becoming a near auto-fade under Todd McLellan as the All-Star break draws near. LA is 2-12 in its last 14 games. The Kings just lost at home as huge favorites to the Sharks and Sabres this past Wednesday blowing a 3-1 lead.
I don't see the Kings bouncing back against the Avalanche, winners of 12 of their last 16 games. I see the Kings as a dead team going into break and McLellan perhaps getting fired.
Colorado is averaging 4.6 goals a game in its last 11 games. The Kings are averaging just two goals a game during their past five games. |
01-26-24 |
Magic -5 v. Grizzlies | | 106-107 |
Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The Magic are finally healthy with Franz Wagner back in the lineup. The Grizzlies are so decimated with injuries that Scotty Pippen Jr. is now a key member of their rotation.
The spot is ripe, too, for Orlando. The Magic are off an embarrassing 27-point home loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday. They came into the matchup having beat the Heat the night before. Now they've had three full days to rest and prepare for this matchup.
Memphis is in a rare flat spot returning home after posting upset road wins against the Raptors this past Monday and Heat two days ago. The Grizzlies are a putrid 4-15 at home and not much better point spread wise at 5-14 (26 percent) ATS. |
01-26-24 |
Ohio v. Kent State -2.5 | Top | 71-64 |
Loss | -110 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games.
The Bobcats lost on the road this past Tuesday to Akron, 67-58, as an 8-point 'dog. The Bobcats remain a fade on the road until they prove they can cover a true away game.
Kent State has the better overall record, although both teams are 3-4 in the MAC. The Golden Flashes rank 54th in 3-point accuracy. Ohio is 199th in 3-point defense. Kent State also makes 76 percent of its free throws compared to Ohio, which ranks 221st in free throw percentage at 70.4 percent. |
01-25-24 |
Mt. St. Mary's +4.5 v. Quinnipiac | | 65-79 |
Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Mount St. Mary's beat Quinnipiac straight-up last season on the road as a bigger underdog than this. Quinnipiac is riding high on a five-game win streak after a home win against Iona.
But the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference is a competitive conference so I'm going to sell high on the Bobcats and take this many points with underdog Mount St. Mary's. The Mountaineers are respectable on defense and a good shooting team. |
01-25-24 |
76ers v. Pacers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 122-134 |
Loss | -109 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
I understand Joel Embiid leads the NBA in scoring and is coming off a 70-point game this past Monday in Philadelphia's, 133-123, home win against the Spurs.
But that's not the lead story for me in this matchup. I see the top story being Indiana's emerging superstar, Tyrese Haliburton, is going to miss this game with a hamstring injury. Haliburton leads the Pacers in scoring at 23.6 points per game and tops the NBA in assists at 12.6 a game.
Haliburton's absence changes many things, including the total. He has missed seven of Indiana's last nine games. The Pacers have gone Under in six of their past seven games minus Haliburton, including a 114-109 home loss to the Nuggets this past Tuesday. That total went Under by 14 points.
It's not a coincidence the Pacers are an Under team without Haliburton. Not only do they miss his dynamic offense, but their tempo is slower without him. Indiana averages 124.6 points. The Pacers have averaged 108.2 points in their last four games minus Haliburton.
Embiid's scoring gets all the attention. But the 76ers are a strong defensive club. They give up the eighth-fewest points in the league and rank No. 1 in 3-point defense.
Indiana is in stop-the-pain mode, losers of three in a row. The Pacers are going to have to dig deep to beat the 76ers. They are home, though, and should provide a strong defensive effort to compensate for not having Haliburton. |
01-25-24 |
SMU v. North Texas +1.5 | | 66-68 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
SMU plays outstanding defense. But North Texas plays even better defense. The Mean Green rank third in the nation defensively holding foes to 58.3 points a game.
North Texas also is 8-0 at home, covering all but one of its lined home games.
I see the Mean Green really being up for this matchup after their six-game win streak was snapped by Charlotte on the road this past Saturday.
North Texas had held its last four opponents below 60 points. I don't feel the Mean Green should be a home 'dog to SMU. |
01-24-24 |
Hawks v. Warriors -7 | Top | 112-134 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
A disappointing season turned tragic for Golden State when assistant coach Dejan Milojevic died of a heart attack last Wednesday. The Warriors haven't played since.
The Warriors will honor Milojevic, showing a video tribute of him before the game.
Look for the Warriors to treat this matchup as their Super Bowl. I'm expecting a highly-motivated home performance from Golden State in memory of Milojevic.
Golden State did hold a full practice on Tuesday. Draymond Green also has been getting better since coming back from suspension. This will be his first home game since his Dec. 14 suspension for striking Jusuf Nurkic in the face.
Then there is the opponent. It's Atlanta, which has the worst point spread mark in the NBA by far at 11-32 ATS (25.5 percent).
The Hawks also are going to be without their best player, Trae Young. He missed the Hawks' last game, a 122-107 road loss to the Kings this past Monday, because of a concussion.
While the Warriors should be full of energy, the Hawks are playing for the fourth time in six days. It's also their fourth straight different venue. |
01-24-24 |
Hornets v. Pistons UNDER 232.5 | | 106-113 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
After a pair of games against the Bucks, the second-highest scoring team in the NBA, the Pistons host the Hornets. Charlotte just upset the Timberwolves as a 14-point road 'dog two days ago despite Karl-Anthony Towns scoring 62 points.
Charlotte and Detroit are vastly different opponents for each other after its last game. The Hornets and Pistons have bottom-eight offenses.
The Hornets just dealt high-scoring gunner Terry Rozier so their offense will be going through an adjustment. Charlotte coach Steve Clifford says he likes to stress defense. Well here's his chance. The Pistons may have helped get Bucks coach Adrian Griffin fired because Milwaukee permitted Detroit to average 131.5 points in two games vs the Bucks.
The Pistons should be fired-up having a chance at a rare home win. The Hornets are in letdown mode after stunning Minnesota.
Charlotte and Detroit played once this season back on Oct. 27 and there were just 210 points scored in the Pistons' 111-99 road victory. |
01-24-24 |
George Washington v. Richmond UNDER 147.5 | | 74-82 |
Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in seven of Richmond's last eight games. The Spiders have a top-30 defense and are one of the slowest-tempo teams in the country.
The Spiders are giving up only 57.8 points in regulation during their last eight games. They should be able to control pace being at home against George Washington, which has played slower since entering Atlantic 10 Conference play.
George Washington ranks 32nd in the country in defensive field goal percentage. The Revolutionaries' strength on offense is 3-point accuracy, where they rank 17th. Richmond, though, is rated in the top 30 both in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Spiders are the top defensive team in the Atlantic 10 and playing at home. So look for defense to carry the day. |
01-23-24 |
San Diego +3.5 v. Portland | | 85-81 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Portland is too weak defensively to lay this many points. San Diego is 0-5 in the West Coast Conference. But the Toreros are 10-10 overall. Their conference losses have been against the best teams in the league, Gonzaga twice, St. Mary's and San Francisco.
The Pilots played a very weak non-conference schedule and have one of the worst defenses in the country. They are giving up an average of 80.2 points on the season and 97.3 points during their last three games. |
01-23-24 |
Houston v. BYU +2.5 | Top | 75-68 |
Loss | -107 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU.
BYU has one of the best home-courts in the country. The Cougars slaughtered Iowa State, 87-72, at home a week ago. BYU lost at Texas Tech in its previous game this past Saturday after blowing a 16-point halftime lead. But at home, BYU is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, outscoring foes by an average of nearly 30 points a game.
The Cougars are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 85.3 points. That's 11 points more per game than Houston averages. The Cougars also could be without J'Wan Roberts, a key defender and their leading rebounder. |
01-23-24 |
Jazz v. Pelicans OVER 238.5 | | 124-153 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Two healthy, high-scoring teams playing on extra rest. That's what we have in this matchup. Those factors should spell lots of points and the total going Over.
I'm expecting a lot of energy from both teams. Utah last played this past Saturday. New Orleans hasn't been in action since last Friday.
The Jazz are averaging 126.4 points in regulation during their last 11 games. If you discount a 126-97 road loss to the Celtics that average rises to 129.4 points. Utah is the 10th-highest scoring team in the NBA. The Pelicans have surrendered at least 123 points in three of their past five games.
New Orleans ranks 12th in scoring, ninth in field goal percentage and third in 3-point shooting percentage. The Jazz are below average defensively. The Pelicans are averaging 123.7 points in their last seven games. |
01-22-24 |
Hawks v. Kings -8 | | 107-122 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Who's the most underachieving team in the NBA? If you go by point spread records it's the Hawks. Atlanta has covered only 26 percent of its games going 11-31 ATS.
The Hawks carry a high fatigue rating here and won't have their superstar, Trae Young. He's out with a concussion. This marks the Hawks' fourth game in six days and seventh game in 11 days.
Sacramento has lost four in a row with three coming on the road. Look at those games, though. The Kings were blown out by the 76ers at Philadelphia. But in their last three games, they lost by one point in overtime at the Bucks, fell on the road to the Suns by two points and then lost at home to the Pacers by five points. That was last Thursday.
So the Kings have ample rest and motivation. This is a great spot for them. |
01-22-24 |
Weber State v. Montana UNDER 144.5 | | 62-77 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
When I get involved in a Big Sky Conference game, it's usually going Over the total. But I'm making an exception in this Big Sky matchup. I believe the oddsmaker has set too high of a total.
Weber State has the 18th best defense in the country. A big factor why the Wildcats are giving up just 63.8 points per game is they play at the 347th slowest tempo in the nation.
Montana is giving up fewer than 70 points per game when at home. Weber State averages fewer than 70 points on the road.
Both teams are strong rebounding on the defensive side. So there should be few second-chance opportunities. |
01-22-24 |
Cavs +1.5 v. Magic | Top | 126-99 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Cleveland is one of the hottest teams in the NBA riding a seven-game win streak. During this span, the Cavaliers have held their opponents to an average of 98.4 points. That figure would easily lead the NBA in defense if it were season-long. Orlando ranks 25th in scoring and has the second-worst 3-point shooting percentage.
The Magic got back Franz Wagner on Sunday. He scored 19 points in 28 minutes to help the Magic defeat the Heat in a Southeast Division showdown match between the first and second place teams in that division. Wagner had missed the previous eight games with an ankle injury. He's Orlando's second-leading scorer at 20.8 points. The Magic could choose to hold Wagner out of this matchup not wanting to risk him playing in a back-to-back situation so early in his recovery.
This also marks the Magic's seventh game in 11 days. Orlando is 2-5 in its last seven games even with the impressive victory against Miami.
The Cavaliers have defeated their last four opponents - Hawks, Bucks, Bulls and Nets - by an average of 22 points. It's not too much to ask them to just win against a tired, low-scoring Orlando team. |
01-21-24 |
Blazers v. Lakers -11.5 | | 110-134 |
Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
The Lakers are good enough - and the Trail Blazers are bad enough - for an LA blowout win here. The spot sets up for the Lakers.
After LA's impressive home wins and covers against the Thunder and Mavericks, two teams far better than Portland, the Lakers fell apart in an embarrassing, 130-112, home loss to the Nets this past Friday.
The Lakers should be motivated to erase that frustration. They catch the Trail Blazers riding their first two-game win streak since late November. Portland nipped the Pacers and Nets at home by a combined five points. Those Portland victories are enough to catch the Lakers' attention.
I understand the Lakers have been inconsistent all season. But Portland has the fourth-worst record in the NBA at 12-29. The Trail Blazers are last in scoring and in shooting percentage. So the bar is not high for the Lakers to get a needed blowout win. |
01-21-24 |
Stars v. Islanders -101 | | 2-3 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Islanders are home, off a frustrating overtime road loss to the Blackhawks from two days ago and most important now have a new head coach. The Islanders fired Lane Lambert after the loss to the Blackhawks. Patrick Roy will make his New York coaching debut in this game.
That's the major part of my handicap - backing the home Islanders in their first game under their new coach. Obviously a strong, motivated effort should be forthcoming from the Islanders.
Dallas is the better team, but it's not a great situational spot for the Stars. They are playing without rest and a bit fat and happy after a 6-2 road win against the Devils on Saturday. It's also the Stars' fourth game in six days and fourth straight game at a different arena. |
01-21-24 |
Chiefs v. Bills OVER 45.5 | Top | 27-24 |
Win | 100 | 69 h 22 m | Show |
While I don't expect there to be nearly the number of combined points there were in the two recent previous playoff games between these teams - 62 in the 2020 season AFC title game and 78 in the 2021 season divisional round game - I do believe there will be enough points produced to push this game safely Over the total.
Unlike last week, weather won't be a major concern. No snow, high wind or excessive cold. Temperatures are projected to be in the mid-20s.
Josh Allen is playing at a high level and he won't be holding back on his running. Allen accounted for four touchdowns in the Bills' 31-17 wild-card round victory at home against the Steelers. Allen threw three TD passes and rushed for 74 yards and a TD. The last time the Chiefs faced an above average offense on the road was back on Dec. 3 when they surrendered 27 points to the Packers.
I'm expecting a big performance from Patrick Mahomes, too.
It's taken all season, but the Chiefs finally have found a consistent wide receiver to go with dependable tight end Travis Kelce. That receiver is rookie Rashee Rice, who in his last two games has caught 13 passes for 257 yards.
Mahomes can exploit a terribly banged-up Buffalo defense that has a cluster injury problem at both linebacker and in the secondary. The Bills already were down their best linebacker, Matt Milano, and top cornerback, Tre'Davious White. Buffalo then lost four more defensive regulars against the Steelers, including leading tackler Terrel Bernard, cornerback Christian Benford and nickelback Taron Johnson.
The Bills may not have their starting punter either as Sam Martin is dealing with a hamstring injury.
Note, too, the short point spread. So there's a stronger than normal chance of overtime. |
01-21-24 |
Oregon v. Utah -5 | | 77-80 |
Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
Oregon wasn't expected to win as a six-point road 'dog to Colorado this past Thursday. But the Ducks' 86-70 loss to the Buffaloes shows some red flags concerning the team when playing away from Eugene.
The Ducks are 4-4 in road/neutral site games. They looked dreadful against Colorado getting outrebounded by 12 and committing 13 turnovers. Now the Ducks have to go on to Utah where the Utes are 10-0 at home this season.
Among the teams Utah has defeated at home are BYU, Washington State, Washington and UCLA, 90-44, 10 days ago. UCLA played at Oregon on Dec. 30 and lost by five points, 64-59.
Utah buried Oregon State, 74-47, as a 15-point home favorite this past Thursday. The Utes did that without starting point guard Rollie Worster, who is questionable for this matchup with a leg injury. The Utes have another reliable point guard in Deivon Smith, whose statistics are similar to Worster's. So it's just a bonus if Worster is able to play. |
01-20-24 |
Packers v. 49ers -9.5 | Top | 21-24 |
Loss | -110 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
Lost in the glare of the Packers' 48-32 smashing upset victory of the Cowboys last Sunday was that Green Bay's defense was on the field for 89 plays.
Now the Packers go back on the road for the fourth time in the last five weeks - and on a short week with this being a Saturday game - to face a rested and healthy 49ers offense that led the league in net yards per passing play, rushing touchdowns and had the best red-zone conversion rate. The 49ers produced the second-most yards in the league and third-most points.
I don't like Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry and I don't trust Green Bay's defense. The Packers gave up 30 points, 26 first downs and nearly 400 yards of offense to Carolina just four games ago. It's scary to think how many points Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk can put up against the Packers defense, which was 28th in stopping the run and hasn't been innovative all season. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable, too, with an ankle injury.
It's easy to overrate the Packers. After all, they just were seen burying the Cowboys in a game that was far more lopsided than the final score while the 49ers haven't played a meaningful game in three weeks.
The 49ers are an elite, "A'' team. The Packers are two levels behind them and in a difficult situational spot. Green Bay has gone as far as it can go. Congrats to the Packers on a nice season, but it ends here and it ends in a big way. |
01-20-24 |
Cavs -135 v. Hawks | | 116-95 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
I thought the Cavaliers would be good going into the season and Cleveland is living up to that. The Cavaliers are 11-3 in their last 14 games and have won six in a row. Cleveland just buried the Bucks by 40 points. That was on Wednesday. The Cavaliers haven't played since. So they should be well rested and well prepared.
The Hawks are in a letdown mode after upsetting Miami on the road, 109-108, last night when Dejounte Murray hit a 3-pointer with two seconds left.
Atlanta beat the Heat despite not having Trae Young, who ranks in the top-10 in scoring and is second in the league in assists. Young is questionable today due to illness.
The Hawks are the worst point spread team in the NBA at 11-30 (27 percent) ATS. Atlanta not only also is playing without rest, but for the fourth time in six days. |
01-20-24 |
Stars -130 v. Devils | | 6-2 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
I'm looking for a strong bounce back game from Dallas after the Stars lost, 5-1, to the Flyers at home two days ago. That was the Stars' most lopsided defeat since Dec. 9.
Dallas is a strong road team - 12-5-2-1 - and the third-highest scoring team in the NHL.
New Jersey ranks 28th defensively. The Devils also carry a high fatigue rating. They beat the Blue Jackets, 4-1, in Columbus last night. So they are playing without rest and also for the fourth time in six days. |
01-20-24 |
Purdue v. Iowa +7 | Top | 84-70 |
Loss | -109 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points.
This is only Purdue's third true road game. The Boilermakers lost to Nebraska on the road, 88-72, three games ago. Iowa defeated Nebraska, 94-76, at home eight days ago.
Purdue is playing consecutive true road games for the first time this season. The Boilermakers are the 13th-highest scoring team in the nation. Iowa ranks fifth in scoring averaging two more points per game than Purdue at 87.1. |
01-19-24 |
Hawks v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | | 109-108 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
The Heat have had the sixth-best defensive rating during the last 10 games and they draw the Hawks without Trae Young. He's been ruled out due to illness. Young is the eighth-highest scorer in the NBA averaging 27.2 points. He's also No. 2 in the league in assists averaging 10.9 per game. The Hawks have held their last two opponents, the Magic to 104 points, and Spurs to 99 points. Atlanta, though, is averaging only 105.5 points in its last four games. |
01-19-24 |
76ers v. Magic UNDER 223 | | 124-109 |
Loss | -112 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Missing Franz Wagner, their second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, the Magic are averaging only 98 points during their past five games. Wagner is sidelined with an ankle injury. He's not expected to play here against the 76ers. Philadelphia ranks ninth defensively and first in 3-point defense. The Magic are the worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA. So the Magic won't be earning many points from beyond the arc.
Orlando is the sixth-best defensive team in the league. The Magic have lost four of their last five games. They just concluded a four-game road trip two days ago losing to the Hawks, 106-104. The Magic lost that game, but held the Hawks 15 points below their season average. The Magic have held each of their last four opponents well below their season average.
The Magic aren't going to lack motivation here. It's their first home game in 10 days. They know they win by defense. Orlando also has revenge for a 112-92 home loss to the 76ers on Dec. 27. Joel Embiid sat out that game.
Embiid is likely to play today, which is good and bad for the Under. Embiid leads the NBA in scoring at 35.1 points a game. But he's also a tremendous rebounder and rim protector. |
01-19-24 |
Wild v. Panthers -1.5 | | 6-4 |
Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Florida is in second place in the Atlantic Division with 58 points. But the Panthers are in must-win mode having lost three in a row - two in overtime - and finishing a five-game homestand with this matchup.
Look for the Panthers to take their frustrations out on Minnesota, which is a patsy right now. Dealing with multiple injuries, the Wild has lost nine of their last 11 games. Minnesota played last night at Tampa Bay and fell to the Lightning, 7-3. The Wild are 1-5 when playing without rest. |
01-19-24 |
Marist +3.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's | Top | 48-65 |
Loss | -110 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's.
Marist is 8-6. The Red Foxes have a strong 10-4 ATS record. Mount St. Mary's is 6-10 and has a losing ATS mark.
The Red Foxes are a strong defensive team, holding foes to 62.6 points a game. That ranks 10th-best in the country. Mount St. Mary's is below average in scoring, rebounding, 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. The Mountaineers also surrender nearly 10 more points per game than Marist.
The Mountaineers are 2-4 in their last six games, including losing and failing to cover in their last two. The Red Foxes halted a four-game losing skid with a confidence-building, 83-60, victory against Rider.
If you discount an 82-61 loss to Fairfield, Marist is giving up an average of only 58.3 points in its last nine games. I don't see Mount St. Mary's scoring too many points. So receiving multiple points looms large. |
01-18-24 |
Predators +135 v. Kings | Top | 2-1 |
Win | 135 | 23 h 60 m | Show |
This is a mystifying line. Since when is a team that has lost nine of their last 10 games, carries a high fatigue rating and is in a terrible situational spot a mid-sized favorite against an above .500 quality opponent?
I can't say never because of this line where the Kings are fairly strong favorites against Nashville.
So I'll gladly take this plus price with the road underdog Predators.
Los Angeles is 1-9 in its last 10 games. The Kings just completed a rough six-game, 10-day trip that concluded in Dallas where they got crushed, 5-1, by the Stars this past Tuesday night.
That was a horrible spot for the Kings. This one isn't any better. It's LA's third game in four days - all at different arenas - and fourth game in six days. The Kings just returned home on Wednesday after being gone for the past 10 days. So their focus and concentration could be off given the traveling circumstances and reuniting with their families.
Nashville has a winning road record. The Kings are just a .500 team at home. The Predators will be rested and ready having last played on Monday against the Golden Knights. That was a day game in nearby Las Vegas - just an hour flight from Los Angeles.
The Predators lost to Las Vegas, but they had won their two previous games. This included an impressive, 6-3, upset road win against the Stars in Dallas this past Friday. |
01-18-24 |
Troy State v. South Alabama | Top | 71-74 |
Loss | -115 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas.
The Trojans are on a six-game winning and covering streak. They lead the Sun Belt Conference with a 5-0 mark. South Alabama is 2-3 in the Sun Belt.
Troy averages 81.4 points a game. That's nearly seven points more per game than South Alabama. The Trojans also are the superior rebounding team and 3-point shooting team. Troy ranks 119th in 3-point accuracy. The Jaguars, by contrast, rank 298th in 3-point accuracy. Troy ranks 52nd in the nation in rebounding while the Jaguars are 252nd.
Not only is Troy superior to South Alabama on paper, but also in the respected kenpom.com ratings where the Trojans are ranked 141st compared to the Jaguars being 205th.
So I don't find it too much to ask of the Trojans to just win this game. |
01-18-24 |
Tenn-Martin v. Morehead State UNDER 150.5 | | 66-84 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Morehead State gives up the 11th-fewest points per game in the country at 62.6. The Eagles rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point defense. They are the top defensive team in the Ohio Valley Conference.
Tennessee-Martin is far better offensively than on defense. But the last four Skyhawks' games have gone Under. They do rank 91st in defensive field goal percentage.
The key is tempo - and it will be slow thanks to Morehead State. The Eagles will not get into a fast-paced game with the Skyhawks, especially at home. |
01-17-24 |
Heat v. Raptors +1.5 | | 97-121 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
There are enough factors going to support the home underdog Raptors.
Since an embarrassing road loss to the Pistons, the Raptors have played better. Their offense is improved with the additions of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley. They were acquired in a trade with the Knicks and have now played eight games with Toronto.
Following the loss to Detroit, the Raptors beat the Cavaliers, who are on a five-game win streak, and then went 2-4 on a road trip with three of those defeats occurring in close fashion, including a controversial one-point loss to the Lakers. Toronto then hosted the Celtics, who have the best record in the NBA at 31-9, and played a strong defensive game in a 105-96 loss this past Monday.
That makes this an important home game for the Raptors. It's also a revenge spot. The Heat downed the Raptors, 112-103, at Toronto on Dec. 6. Caleb Martin had a season-best 24 points and a career-best 12 rebounds in that game. I don't see Martin duplicating those numbers.
Miami is in a fat-and-happy mood following a 96-95 overtime road win against the Nets two days ago. That was the Heat's third win in a row. Miami has Jimmy Butler back, but is down rotation players Jaime Jaquez and Kevin Love.
The Raptors holding the Celtics 16 points below their season average is a strong positive and gives me confidence to back them here. |
01-17-24 |
Lafayette v. Holy Cross +5.5 | Top | 72-68 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them.
Lafayette is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Leopards average only 60.2 points per game on 39.3 percent shooting from the floor and 27.7 percent from 3-point range. Holy Cross averages five more points per game than Lafayette.
The Crusaders have the best player on the court in Joe Octave. He averages 15 points and 6.6 rebounds. The Crusaders snapped a three-game losing streak with a 69-66 overtime road win against Lehigh as a 10-point 'dog. So the Crusaders should bring in confidence for this key league game.
The Leopards are 2-8 in their 10 road/neutral site games.
I make Holy Cross the favorite in this matchup. So getting these many points is a bonus. |
01-17-24 |
Rhode Island +8.5 v. St Bonaventure | | 64-99 |
Loss | -108 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Rhode Island had a rough December. But sparked by David Green, the Rams are playing their best ball winning and covering their last four games.
Green has scored 15 or more points in three of the four games he's played. He had 24 points in the Rams' last game, an 89-77 upset victory against UMass.
The Rams are 3-0 in the Atlantic 10 winning all three games as underdogs. St. Bonaventure has failed to cover the last three times it has been favored.
I find Rhode Island to be undervalued again in this matchup. |
01-16-24 |
Wisconsin v. Penn State +7.5 | Top | 83-87 |
Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
Wisconsin remains the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play. But no team goes unbeaten through the conference schedule in this rugged league. So the Badgers are on borrowed time. That time could be up in this matchup.
Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its Big Ten games. The Nittany Lions upset Michigan at a neutral site three games ago. Since then, however, the Nittany Lions have lost to second-ranked Purdue and Northwestern. So this becomes a circle-the-wagons home game for Penn State, which upset Ohio State at home and nearly upset Maryland on the road losing in overtime.
This is just the Badgers' fifth true road game. They are 2-2 in those away contests with their defeats coming to Providence by 13 and to Arizona by 25.
The teams played two close games last season with Wisconsin edging Penn State, 63-60 and 79-74. |
01-16-24 |
Texas A&M v. Arkansas +3.5 | | 77-78 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Arkansas is 7-2 at home, including a victory against Duke, and draws Texas A&M in a letdown spot.
The Aggies are off their finest win of the season. They beat Kentucky, 97-92 in overtime, at home this past Saturday. It was the first time the Aggies defeated a ranked team this season and it was their first victory against the Wildcats since 2018.
The Razorbacks should be fired-up after consecutive road defeats to Florida and Georgia. Arkansas coach Eric Musselman ripped his team following the latest loss. |
01-16-24 |
Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 228.5 | | 121-126 |
Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
The focus will be on superstars Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid. But I am thinking defense here in this high-profile matchup between the defending champion Nuggets and 76ers, who are anxious to make a statement with a win.
Only three teams allow fewer points per game than Denver. The Nuggets just held the Pacers, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, to 16 points under their season average and their fifth-lowest score of the season.
Philadelphia has a top-eight defense and rates No. 1 in defensive 3-point shooting percentage. Just two games ago, the 76ers held the Kings 18 points below their season average. |
01-15-24 |
Pacers v. Jazz UNDER 248.5 | | 105-132 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
Indiana has gone Under the total in its last three games. The Pacers haven't had emerging superstar Tyrese Haliburton during those three games. So it's not a coincidence those games have all gone Under. I find it directly related. Haliburton suffered a groin injury four games ago. Haliburton, who leads the NBA in assists and also is the Pacers' leading scorer, isn't expected back until later this month.
The Pacers have slowed their tempo and stressed defense more minus Haliburton.
The oddsmaker hasn't caught on yet. He is looking at Indiana's league-leading 126.1 scoring average. However, minus Haliburton the Pacers have held their last three opponents to an average of 109.6 points. Those foes were good offensive teams, too - Nuggets (13th in scoring), Hawks (fourth in scoring) and Wizards (16th in scoring).
During these past three games, the Pacers are averaging 115.6 points. That's down nearly 11 points from their season average. The Under in Indiana's last three games has cashed by an average winning margin of 21.6 points.
The Pacers certainly aren't going to push tempo traveling into Utah's high altitude while playing for the third time in four days and second in two days.
The Jazz are a slightly below average defensive team. But they've held their last five opponents to an average of 114.8 points, which is four points below their season average of what they give up. |
01-15-24 |
Eagles -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 9-32 |
Loss | -120 | 154 h 59 m | Show |
The Eagles catch two major breaks here. This game is on Monday night so they get extra rest. They also draw the Buccaneers. The Eagles are at low ebb right now dropping five of their last six games. They certainly won't lack motivation now that the playoffs are here. Tampa Bay, winner of the weak NFC South Division, is one of the worst teams in the postseason. The Bucs are last in rushing and Baker Mayfield is banged-up. Tampa Bay has produced a combined 22 points in its last two games going against the Panthers and Saints. Philadelphia played a much more difficult schedule than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers only went 1-5 in games vs playoff teams. The one victory came against the Packers. The Buccaneers hosted the Eagles back in Week 3. It didn't go well for Tampa Bay. The Eagles won, 25-11. The Buccaneers could only manage 12 first downs and 41 yards rushing. |
01-15-24 |
Predators +105 v. Golden Knights | | 1-4 |
Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Losers of eight of their last 11 games and thin at center without injured leading scorer Jack Eichel, the Golden Knights can not be favored. Certainly not here against Nashville.
The Predators are 5-2 in their last seven games. They are 6-1 in their last seven road games and have scored 3 or more goals in each of their last eight games.
The Golden Knights are averaging only 1.7 goals in their last nine games. |
01-15-24 |
Dartmouth +18 v. Princeton | | 58-76 |
Push | 0 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Dartmouth is below the radar and justifiably so with three straight losses and non-covers. But the Big Green has had injuries. Now they finally are healthy.
Princeton is the best team in the Ivy League. Still, this is a lot of points for the Tigers to be laying in a slow-paced Ivy League matchup. Dartmouth is respectable on defense holding foes to an average of 68.7 points a game.
There could be a rust factor, too, since neither team has played in nine days. That adds some randomness and randomness is good when backing a large underdog.
The Tigers have been overpriced. They are 2-4 ATS in their last six lined games. I find them overpriced again in this spot given the circumstances. |
01-14-24 |
Rams v. Lions UNDER 52.5 | | 23-24 |
Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
The total has been bet up in anticipation of a Matthew Stafford-Jared Goff shootout. I'm not buying into that storyline.
Yes, there are some very good skill position players involved. But this is a high total and these defenses are not as bad as some perceive. I also believe there will be more running plays than expected.
Raheem Morris is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. He's done a fine job with the Rams this season. Aaron Donald still is in his dominant prime. Morris has the Rams playing a lot of soft coverage. This invites the run and prevents big plays from happening. It's good for the Under.
Lions coach Dan Campbell isn't afraid to feature a lot of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground. The Rams held seven of their last nine opponents to 22 or fewer points. Just once did the Rams allow an opposing runner to gain 100 rushing yards.
Goff's top red zone target is tight end Sam LaPorta, who set a rookie record with 86 catches and ranked No. 1 in red zone touchdowns for tight ends. LaPorta suffered a knee injury in the Lions' Week 18 victory against the Vikings. He'll be limited if he plays. Also hurt in that game was Kalif Raymond, a dangerous return man for the Lions.
The Rams use Kyren Williams to set up their passing attack. Detroit's defense strength is its run defense. The Lions finished third in yards per carry allowed and No. 2 in run defense limiting opposing runners to 88.8 yards per game. |
01-14-24 |
Washington v. UCLA +3 | | 61-73 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
UCLA covered against Marquette and Gonzaga in narrow losses to those schools earlier this season. Few, though, are rushing to the window to bet the Bruins these days. UCLA is 1-8 in its last nine games and off an embarrassing, 90-44, road loss to Utah this past Thursday.
But now the Bruins are returning home and I'm buying low on them as home underdogs to mediocre Washington, which ranks 277th defensively.
Clearly this is a circle-the-wagons game for UCLA. The Bruins have owned the Huskies winning the past nine times.
UCLA is way overdue. The Bruins are going to have tremendous motivation. This is the spot to back them. |
01-14-24 |
Packers v. Cowboys -7 | Top | 48-32 |
Loss | -110 | 45 h 49 m | Show |
The Packers surprised many people sneaking into the playoffs as the final wild-card team. But that is their ceiling.
Dallas could be the best team in the NFL when playing at home. The Cowboys have won 16 games in a row at AT&T Stadium. That includes an 8-0 mark this season with the average winning margin being 21.5 points.
Green Bay is the youngest team in the NFL. The Packers had no Pro Bowl players. None. They are 28th in run defense. Star cornerback Jaire Alexander is questionable with an ankle injury. Joe Barry is one of the worst defensive coordinators in the league. He will not have answers, nor innovations, to slow down Dallas' high-powered attack.
The Cowboys were the top-scoring team in the NFL. Dak Prescott was first in touchdown passes. He has a 22-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home. CeeDee Lamb is right there with Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill as the best wide receiver in football.
Before closing out their regular season facing the Vikings' rookie fourth-string quarterback and the Bears, the Packers surrendered 34 points to the Buccaneers at home. They made Baker Mayfield look like Joe Montana. Then Green Bay gave up 30 points to the Panthers. Carolina ranked last in yards gained and second-to-last in points. The Panthers were shut out in their final two games after playing Green Bay.
The Packers, Jordan Love and their many young receivers are in the development stage. The Cowboys have gone 12-5 each of the last three seasons making the playoffs each year. They are far ahead of the Packers at this juncture. |
01-13-24 |
Pelicans +3 v. Mavs | | 118-108 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
The Pelicans are fully healthy. The Mavericks are not. Luka Doncic is out with an ankle injury. Dante Exum, the Mavericks' fifth-leading scorer, is out, too. Rotation player Dereck Lively II is questionable.
The Pelicans are coming off a 125-113 road loss to Denver. New Orleans had won seven consecutive road games until that defeat.
The Mavericks are off a highly-satisfying and hard-fought, 128-124, home win against the Knicks two days ago. That game had huge motivation for the Mavericks because Jalen Brunson was returning to Dallas. The Mavericks also wanted to show they could win without superstar Doncic, who sat out that contest.
I'm willing to take a healthy and hot Pelicans team - 6-2 in their last eight games - against the Mavericks, who may not be quite as up for this game as they were Thursday and won't have their best player. |
01-13-24 |
Browns v. Texans UNDER 44.5 | Top | 14-45 |
Loss | -110 | 64 h 28 m | Show |
I find this total too high for a pair of inexperienced playoff teams. C.J. Stroud is an extraordinary rookie. But he's going against a Cleveland defense that gave up the fewest yards per game and finished No. 2 in the metric DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Stroud also has to deal with maybe the best pass rusher in the league, Myles Garrett.
Joe Flacco has been a remarkable story saving the Browns' season. But what's been overlooked about Flacco, who turns 39 in a matter of days, is he has thrown eight interceptions in his five starts with Cleveland.
I envision the Browns being heavily run-oriented against the Texans. The Colts had great success on the ground vs the Texans. But they had Jonathan Taylor. The Browns don't have an above average runner with Nick Chubb sidelined.
Houston's defense is going to get reinforced, too, this week with the return of star pass rushing rookie Will Anderson Jr. and linebacker Blake Cashman, an underrated player who racks up tackles. The Texans also might get back defensive lineman Jonathan Greenard. |
01-13-24 |
CS-Fullerton v. CS-Northridge -4 | | 71-76 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
Cal Northridge is a better team than Cal State-Fullerton and the timing sets up well for the Matadors.
The Matadors just played on Thursday and lost, 95-75, to UC Davis on the road. That was just the second time in 14 games that Northridge failed to cover the spread. The Matadors are 12-4 and 12-2 ATS in their lined games. One of those victories was a 76-72 victory against UCLA on the road as a 17-point underdog. It wasn't a fluke win either as the Matadors were in control for much of the game.
Fullerton is 1-3 in its last four games. The Titans haven't played in a week. So they figure to be rusty while Northridge is anxious to atone for its poor showing this past Thursday.
Another factor Northridge has going is its coach, Andy Newman, is a former coach at Fullerton. He's been pointing to this game. |
01-13-24 |
San Diego State v. New Mexico -3.5 | | 70-88 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
San Diego State isn't the same on the road. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in away and neutral site games this season.
New Mexico has one of the top home floor edges. That's held true again this season as the Lobos are 8-0 SU at home. They've covered six of their seven lined home games.
The Lobos should be up for this matchup after losing, 83-73, on the road to Las Vegas this past Tuesday. |
01-12-24 |
Magic v. Heat UNDER 219.5 | | 96-99 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an in-state rivalry matchup between two top 10 defenses. Both teams have multiple injuries to key players, too. The Heat aren't likely to have Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry. Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin are questionable. Orlando will be minus Franz Wagner, its second-leading scorer at 20.9 points a game, and also could be without Wendell Carter Jr., Joe Ingles and Gary Harris. Miami is going to be stressing defense after allowing Oklahoma City to shoot 59.3 percent from the floor in a 128-120 loss to the Thunder two days ago. The Heat defeated the Magic, 115-106, at Orlando in their first meeting this season. The Heat were hot in that game shooting 48 percent from the floor and sinking 15 of 29 3-point shots for 52 percent. I highly doubt the Heat will be that hot again. |
01-12-24 |
Dayton +1.5 v. Duquesne | | 72-62 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
Dayton has won nine in a row. The Flyers shouldn't be an underdog to Duquesne.
The Flyers are road-tested playing Houston and LSU on neutral courts and winning at SMU, Cincinnati and Davidson.
Duquesne's 6-1 home record is misleading. The Dukes have played extremely easy competition at home. The best team they hosted was Princeton and they lost straight-up to the Tigers as a six-point favorite.
Dayton ranks fourth in the country in 3-point shooting hitting 40.5 percent. Duquesne's biggest defensive weakness is 3-point defense. |
01-12-24 |
Minnesota v. Indiana -3.5 | Top | 62-74 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
I'm selling high on the Gophers right now.
Picked to finish last in the Big Ten Conference by the media, Minnesota is a surprising 12-3 and tied for second in the Big Ten with a 3-1 league mark. The Gophers are off narrow victories against Michigan and Maryland. They've won seven in a row.
But I see reality closing in on Minnesota. The Gophers' next four games are this one at Indiana, then Iowa followed by a road game at Michigan State and then Wisconsin.
Minnesota only has played two true road games. Indiana is 8-1 at home this season.
The Hooisers should be highly motivated for this matchup after losing, 66-57, on the road to Rutgers this past Tuesday. Indiana was an embarrassing 4-of-15 from the foul line in that loss.
The 11-5 Hooisers are not a good free throw shooting team, but they do connect on 48.4 percent of their field goal attempts. That rates 35th in the country. |
01-11-24 |
Blazers +13.5 v. Thunder | Top | 77-139 |
Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
Portland is going through another tough period with four blowout losses and a victory during its last five games. So why back the Trail Blazers here? The complex answer is when things don't seem to make sense in the NBA, that's usually the right side to be on.
Then there's this: Oklahoma City just beat Miami, 128-120, on Wednesday night. Playing the physical, usually ultra-competitive Heat rarely is easy. The last three teams who played the Heat failed to cover in their next game. Oklahoma City will be playing without rest and is in action for the third time in four days. The Thunder have a more challenging matchup on deck when they host the much-improved Magic on Sunday.
The Trail Blazers should be up for this contest after getting buried by the Knicks at New York this past Tuesday. Prior to that game, Portland upset Brooklyn on the road as a 9 1/2-point 'dog. By comparison, the Thunder played at the Nets this past Friday and lost.
Portland has a winning ATS mark on the road this season. The Trail Blazers own outright away victories against the Raptors, Pacers and Cavaliers. They've lost road games by six or fewer points to the Bucks, Lakers, Clippers, Jazz and Kings. I look for them to hang in during this one. |
01-11-24 |
Celtics v. Bucks -4.5 | | 102-135 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Only once all season have the Celtics been an underdog. But there are good reasons why Boston is getting so many points in this matchup. This spot sets up entirely for the Bucks. The oddsmaker knows it, making Milwaukee a strong favorite. But the Bucks should be favored by even more. That's how favorable this situation is for Milwaukee.
The Bucks are in circle-the-wagons mode after losing two in a row and four of their last five with a pair of those defeats occurring to the Pacers, who they've had problems matching up to this season.
The Bucks by no means are conceding that the Celtics are the best team in the Eastern Conference. This is their chance to make a statement. Milwaukee has revenge for a 119-116 road loss to Boston on Nov. 22. This time the Bucks draw Boston at home and they are rested having been idle since Monday.
Milwaukee will have all hands on deck, including Damian Lillard, who missed the last game. Boston, on the other hand, may have to rest some of its players, or at least reduce their minutes following last night's 127-120 overtime win against the Timberwolves that kept the Celtics' home record perfect at 18-0. Boston had to rally from nine points down late in the fourth quarter to pull out the victory.
The cost was heavy minutes for Boston's key players. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday all logged at least 40 minutes. Ancient Al Horford played 38 minutes. Not only is this a back-to-back game for the Celtics, but it's their fifth game in seven days. |
01-11-24 |
Stony Brook v. Towson -4.5 | | 64-73 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
I find this line short. Towson is 6-0 at home. Stony Brook hosted Towson last year and lost, 67-55. Towson is superior to the Seawolves again this season.
Towson has huge edges defensively and on the boards. The Tigers rank 34th defensively. They have given up an average of only 54 points in their last four games. They rank fifth in the nation in defensive rebounding. The Tigers had 11 more rebounds than Stony Brook in last year's game.
Stony Brook ranks 306th in defensive rebounding and is 340th in the nation in 3-point defense. |
01-10-24 |
The Citadel v. Furman -9.5 | Top | 68-82 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
Back on Dec. 19, The Citadel stunned Notre Dame, beating the Irish, 65-45, as an 8 1/2-point road 'dog.
Much has changed this month, though, for the Bulldogs. And it's not good. The Citadel suffered multiple injuries, losing leading scorer AJ Smith to a shoulder injury and second-leading rebounder Winston Hill to a season-ending knee injury.
The Bulldogs were missing four players in their last game, which was an 80-64 home loss to Samford this past Saturday.
Now the Bulldogs have to go on the road to meet Furman. The Paladins are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Furman buried The Citadel at home last season, 97-72. However, the Bulldogs upset the Paladins, 69-65, when they hosted them later in the season. Furman hasn't lost two in a row to The Citadel in 11 years.
Furman averages 81.8 points a game. The Citadel has allowed 80 points in each of its last two games. The Paladins have two big scorers in Marcus Foster and JP Pegues. They are averaging 19.8 points and 18.8 points per game, respectively. Minus Smith, the Bulldogs' leading scorer is Elijah Morgan at 14.5 points.
Ed Conroy, coach of The Citadel, admitted his team is going to have to reinvent themselves following all these injuries. That's going to take time. So the spot sets up well for Furman. |
01-09-24 |
Raptors v. Lakers -5 | Top | 131-132 |
Loss | -105 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
Next to winning the NBA in-season tournament, the Lakers won perhaps their most important game of the season this past Sunday edging the Clippers, 106-103. The Clippers had won five in a row entering that matchup while the Lakers had dropped four straight.
The Lakers were 3-10 since capturing the in-season tournament before defeating the Clippers. There was growing friction inside the Lakers between some players and coach Darvin Ham. But LeBron James and Anthony Davis had huge performances and D'Angelo Russell returned after missing three games because of a bruised tailbone to lead the Lakers past the Clippers and take the focus off Ham.
I don't see the Lakers just giving back that game by losing at home to the Raptors here.
Toronto is a bit fat and happy following a 133-118 road win against the Warriors this past Sunday. That gave the Raptors a 2-1 record on their current six-game road trip. This marks the Raptors' fourth road game in seven days and seventh overall game in 12 days.
The Raptors haven't been playing good defense, surrendering an average of 122.3 points a game during their past six games. |