Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-21-21 | Grizzlies +5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
Aside from Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, the Warriors have a lot of youth and lack big-game inexperience. I don't trust the Warriors in this point spread range against a talented, hungry Grizzlies squad that has the height and muscle to hurt Golden State inside. Yes, the Warriors defeated the Grizzlies, 113-101, at home this past Sunday. But the Grizzlies were right with the Warriors until Dillon Brooks, who was doing a good job covering Curry, fouled out with Memphis trailing just, 93-91. Curry carries a high fatigue rating having played 81 minutes during his last two games. Curry's worst shooting games have occurred when he's been tired. Memphis has covered nine of the last 11 times it has been a 'dog. Big man Jaren Jackson Jr. has returned to the Grizzlies' lineup giving them a frontcourt edge on the Warriors with Jonas Valanclunas in the middle. Curry is an MVP finalist, but Ja Morant gives Memphis an upper tier guard, too. | |||||||
05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors UNDER 221 | 117-112 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
The teams just met this past Sunday with postseason implications involved. Golden State won, 113-101. It was the fourth straight time the Grizzlies and Warriors went Under the total when playing at Golden State. The Warriors shot 49 percent from the floor, hit 15 of 39 3-pointers and connected on 89 percent of their free throws. So the Warriors' shooting was strong - and the game still went Under with 214 combined points. Stephen Curry finished with 46 points in that game, but was held in check until about 6 1/2 minutes were left by the defensive efforts of Dillon Brooks, who fouled out at that point. Before his forced departure, Brooks held Curry to 11-of-27 shooting from the floor while forcing five turnovers from Curry. Curry has logged 81 minutes in the last two games, the one against the Grizzlies and the game against the Lakers two days ago. Those are the most non-overtime minutes he's played during two straight games this season. Curry is 33 and has had his worst shooting games when physically exhausted. The combination of Brooks and fatigue could reduce Curry's effectiveness, which is the key to Golden State's scoring. The Grizzlies are giving up 105.4 points in their last seven games. The Warriors have held seven of their last 10 opponents to 108 or fewer points. | |||||||
05-21-21 | White Sox +101 v. Yankees | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
After facing the Orioles and Rangers during the final seven games of their 10-game road swing, the Yankees return home to face a real team - the White Sox. The White Sox have turned the corner, owning the best record in the American League at 26-16. Carlos Rodon is one reason for this. He's been magnificent going 5-1 with a 1.47 ERA. Rodon has 49 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings this season. I prefer Rodon far more than Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery, who I view as the weak spot in their rotation. Montgomery has a 4.75 ERA and is coming off a poor outing against the Orioles giving up five runs in just three innings. Worse, Montgomery is lefthanded. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 23-2 (92 percent) versus southpaw starters since the start of last season! The White Sox rank in the top three in runs and batting average. The Yankees are 22nd in runs and 24th in batting average. Friday Free PlayCardinals plus $1.07 hosting Cubs Don't be fooled by the Cubs taking three of four from the Nationals. That series was played at Wrigley Field. The Cubs have yet to show they can perform well on the road losing 12 of their 18 away contests. This applies to Kyle Hendricks, too. He has a 6.17 road ERA. St. Louis has won 14 of its 22 home games. Carlos Martinez is coming off the injured list to start. Perhaps bothered by a sprained ankle that landed him on the IL, Martinez surrendered five runs on six hits and five walks in five innings against the Rockies during his previous start on May 8. Before that performance, Martinze had been dominant in three straight starts giving up two earned runs in 21 1/3 innings for a 0.84 ERA. The Cubs can't seem to get fully healthy as Jason Heyward just went on the injured list. | |||||||
05-20-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
No team gives the Golden Knights more trouble than the Wild especially when playing in Minnesota. The tight-checking, conservative Wild frustrate the Golden Knights with their methodical style. That's not going to change with the teams switching venues after the first two games of the series were played in Las Vegas. There was one goal scored in Game 1. There were four goals scored in Game 2. I'm not expecting a two-goal leap to six goals being scored in this Game 3. Las Vegas has allowed only four goals in regulation during its last five games. Marc-Andre Fleury is one of the all-time big play goalies. He has more playoff victories than any active goalie. The Golden Knights have not had their leading goal scorer, Max Pacioretty, for the last eight games. He also ranks second on the Golden Knights in points. The Under has cashed five of the last six times the teams have met. | |||||||
05-20-21 | Pacers v. Wizards OVER 236.5 | 115-142 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
Teams usually step up defensively during the postseason. But I don't see the Pacers and Wizards being capable of that. These two teams live and die by offense. Indiana finished sixth in the NBA in scoring. The Pacers are averaging 129.3 points in their last four games. The Wizards rank last in the NBA defensively. The Over has cashed in 10 of the Pacers' last 13 games. Washington was the No. 3 scoring team in the league. The Wizards have averaged 124.6 points during their last 14 games, discounting their play-in game loss to the Celtics. The Pacers rank 25th defensively. The teams met 17 days ago and there were a whopping 295 points scored! Russell Westbrook averaged 27.3 points and 20 assists per game against the Pacers during the regular season. Bradley Beal isn't 100 percent, but he's back in Washington's lineup. Star guard Malcolm Brogdon is back in Indiana's lineup, which offsets the loss of Caris LeVert. | |||||||
05-20-21 | Pacers v. Wizards -3 | 115-142 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
Washington and Indiana each finished the regular season going 34-38. But I don't see these teams being even. The Wizards came on strong. The Pacers didn't. Washington closed the regular season going 17-6. The Wizards are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games. They defeated the Pacers during all three regular season meetings. Indiana is 6-7 in its last 13 games. A 144-117 pasting of the choking, banged-up Hornets in Tuesday's play-in game doesn't alter my opinion that the Pacers are inferior to the Wizards. The Wizards got their bad game out of the way with a 118-100 loss to the Celtics in their play-in game two days ago. Bradley Beal isn't 100 percent because of a hamstring injury, but he is back playing. Russell Westbrook is a triple-double machine and gives Washington the best all-around player on the court. Washington has shown a bounce back ability. The Wizards are 7-0-1 ATS following a defeat. They also are 18-5 ATS the past 23 times when playing on one day's rest. | |||||||
05-20-21 | Yankees v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
The Rangers are a below average scoring team playing in a stadium that has become a huge pitcher's park. The Under has cashed in 64 percent of the Rangers' 22 home games this season. The Rangers face Domingo German, who has a 2.74 road ERA and an elite Yankee bullpen. Dane Dunning has been the Rangers' best starter. He's better than his 4.34 ERA may indicate going by various metrics, including a 2.63 FIP. Dunning has held the opposition to two earned runs or fewer in five of his eight starts. Bill Miller is slated to be the home plate umpire. He has one of the highest strike percentages of any umpire. Note, too, this is an early start time and getaway game so a key regular or two may be rested. | |||||||
05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers -5 | 100-103 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Now technically this isn't a playoff game. It's a play-in game. Neither team will get eliminated if it loses. But that doesn't mean the stakes aren't big here. When the stakes are big I want LeBron James and Anthony Davis going for me. Together they trump Stephen Curry. Kudos to Curry on a brilliant season, leading the league in scoring. The Lakers, though, have done a good job of clamping down on Curry holding him to 21.5 points a game during the past two meetings. That's nearly 11 points under his season scoring average. The Warriors lack the Lakers' depth. Their rotation goes just eight deep because of injuries. So if Curry is cold, Golden State is in big trouble. The Lakers crushed the Warriors by an average of 28 1/2 points during their last two meetings. LA didn't have Anthony Davis in those games either. Now LA has James and Davis back healthy plus monster rebounder Andre Drummond. Expect the Lakers to dominate the paint and glass with the smaller Warriors minus injured Kelly Oubre and James Wiseman. Oubre also was the player Warriors coach Steve Kerr would have liked to use defending James. Now that task falls on Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins is a good defender, but his offense is going to suffer since his concentration will be on trying to stay on and contain James. The Lakers have the talent edge, home-court and now postseason motivation to win this game by more than the point spread. | |||||||
05-19-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
I don't need much of an excuse to fade the Pirates especially when they are on the road. Jack Flaherty gives me a strong reason to not only go against Pittsburgh, but lay 1 1/2 runs on the run line against them in order to scale back the heavy juice. The Pirates are last in the majors in homers and second-to-last in runs. They are facing perhaps the best and hottest pitcher in the National League. Flaherty is 7-0 with a 2.47 ERA. He's on a string of 13 scoreless innings. Flaherty has a strong history against the Pirates, too, with a 7-1 record and 2.14 ERA in 10 career starts. Pittsburgh has lost 42 of its past 58 road games. Each of the Pirates' last five losses have come by more than one run. Pittsburgh has one decent starting pitcher, JT Brubaker. And he pitched yesterday in a 5-2 loss to St. Louis. So now it's Trevor Cahill's turn to pitch. Good news for the Cardinals. Cahill is 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA. He has a career 4.53 ERA versus the Cardinals in 15 appearances, including seven starts. | |||||||
05-19-21 | Canucks v. Flames UNDER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Neither Vancouver nor Calgary have made the playoffs. This is the final regular season game for them - and it's a totally meaningless contest. It's the third game in four days between the two teams. It's a day game, too, another plus for the Under. It's been a long and unrewarding season for both the Canucks and Flames. The players just want the season to finally end so they can go on vacation. So I'm greatly anticipating a listless matchup lacking any energy or fast tempo. | |||||||
05-18-21 | Lightning v. Panthers +119 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 39 m | Show | |
The Lightning are the defending Stanley Cup champions and have gotten healthy. But they've had trouble with the Panthers. Florida won the last two regular season meetings and nearly beat Tampa Bay in Game 1 of the series two days ago. The Panthers led, 4-3, midway through the third period before falling, 5-4. Florida outplayed Tampa Bay during regular -5-on-5 action, but gave up four special teams goals. Andrei Vasilevskiy, the Lightning's star goalie, is 1-3 in his last four starts against Florida. He's allowed 4.7 goals a game against the Panthers during this span. This is close to must-win territory for the Panthers because a loss puts them in an 0-2 hole with the next two games at Tampa. The Panthers have won 13 of their past 16 home games. | |||||||
05-18-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show | |
Hyun Jin Ryu is one of the best pitchers in the American League. I consider Eduardo Rodriguez to be Boston's top pitcher. Throw in an 18 mph wind blowing in from right and I'm going Under this total. The Under has cashed in nine of the Red Sox last 11 road games. Entering the season, the Red Sox bullpen was a huge question mark. But Matt Barnes has come through as the closer. Prior to giving up a game-winner homer to Shohei Ohtani two days ago, Barnes was 9-for-9 in save opportunities giving up no runs while holding foes to a .034 batting average. | |||||||
05-18-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -3 | 117-144 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
Gordon Hayward remains out. LaMelo Ball is far from 100 percent and the Hornets are in free-fall losers of their last five games and 15 of their past 21. While the Hornets have covered just one of their last seven games, the Pacers are 6-0-1 ATS during their past seven games. Indiana has played five tough or hot teams during this seven-game stretch - Lakers, Bucks, 76ers, Wizards and Hawks. Charlotte has been the worst shooting team in the league during its last five games ranking 30th in 3-point percentage and 29th in field goal shooting. Ball, bothered by a broken wrist suffered on March 29, hasn't been the same player since coming back. Obviously the wrist isn't fully healed yet. The Pacers are far more respectable with Domaontis Sabonis back in the lineup. He returned this past Sunday after missing a game because of a quad injury and had a huge game in a 12-point win against the Raptors. The Hornets, who have lost their last five games by an average of 8.8 points, are 1-4 ATS during their last five visits to Indiana. | |||||||
05-17-21 | Indians +127 v. Angels | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
There are very few teams the Angels should be favored against when starting Patrick Sandoval - and the Indians aren't one of those teams. Cleveland has defeated the Angels eight straight times, outscoring them by nearly three runs a game during this win streak. The Indians own a winning road record. The Angels have a sub .500 home mark. Southpaw Sam Hentges is set to make his second career start for Cleveland. He tossed 4 2/3 scoreless innings with six strikeouts in his first start five days ago against the Cubs. Hentges has 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings this year. The Angels are 2-9 in their past 11 games versus a lefty starter, including 2-7 this season. They are batting .225 against southpaws. The Angels have scored three runs or fewer in 10 of their past 14 games. Sandoval has a 6.14 ERA and 1.50 WHIP pitching in relief. This will be his first start of the season. He's expected to be on around a 60-65 pitch count setting up a bullpen game for the Angels, who have the worst team ERA in the majors at 5.32. Monday Free Play White Sox minus $1.05 at Twins At some point the Twins have to improve on their 13-25 record. They certainly aren't that bad. But I don't see Minnesota starting to turn around its season in this game. Yes, the Twins draw aging and declining Dallas Keuchel. But the White Sox get southpaw J.A. Happ. The White Sox are a mind-boggling 22-2 against lefty starters since the start of last season. Chicago leads the majors in batting against lefties at .293. The next closest is the Red Sox at .282. Happ found out the hard way how well the White Sox hit and play against lefties when he faced them in a 13-8 loss this past Wednesday in Chicago. The White Sox battered Happ for nine earned runs in 3 1/3 innings, by far his worst outing of the season. The 38-year-old Happ is another over-the-hill veteran, who has a bad history against the White Sox. His ERA is 6.34 in nine career starts versus Chicago. The White Sox lead the American League with a .343 on-bast percentage. Current White Sox batters are hitting a combined .333 versus Happ. Chicago enters this series having won eight of its last 10, while the Twins have dropped nine of their last 11 games. Minnesota is giving up an average of 7.1 runs in its last seven games. | |||||||
05-16-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies and Warriors rank among the top 14 scoring teams in the NBA. This is one of the rare Sunday matchups that has playoff meaning. Both teams have been pointing to this matchup by resting key players. Stephen Curry plays his best when he's not fatigued. He's had four days to rest up for this game. The Grizzlies have yet to face him this season. Curry is going for a scoring title and will be firing at will. The Warriors play small ball. That's fine with the Grizzlies. who have gone Over in 13 of their last 19 road contests. Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins, another instant offense performer, also are rested having not played during this past Friday game. Ja Morant gives Memphis a dynamic scorer. The Grizzlies also hold an inside edge with Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren Jackson Jr,, who is rounding into form after being out most of the season. The Warriors haven't seen him this season. Morant, Valanciunas and Jackson all were rested in the Grizzlies' last game this past Friday. The Grizzlies are the fifth-highest offensive rebounding team in the league and No. 1 in second-chance points. The Warriors are weak on the boards, giving up the fourth-most offensive rebounds. Valanciunas is No. 2 in the NBA in offensive rebounds and second-chance points. Jackson's return makes the Grizzlies even more of a force on the offensive boards. | |||||||
05-16-21 | Phillies v. Blue Jays -163 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Yes, we're getting into the high chalk range here as I usually don't like to lay more than minus $1.50 on a baseball game unless I perceive excellent value on the favorite. That's the case here. Lefty Robbie Ray is riding a tremendous hot streak, the Phillies have problems hitting southpaw starters and they are dealing with multiple injuries that could leave them without four starters for this game, including Bryce Harper. Another thing. The Phillies are starting Chase Anderson. The journeyman has a 5.23 ERA this season. The Blue Jays know him well since he was on their team last season. Ray has 33 strikeouts in his last four starts spanning 24 2/3 innings. Ray is a monster strikeout pitcher. The negative with Ray has been his high walk ratio and many base runners. However, Ray's WHIP is 1.10 this season. That shrinks to 0.91 going by his last four starts where he has a fantastic 33-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio! The Phillies have played 12 games against lefty starters. These opposing southpaws have a combined 2.80 ERA against Philadelphia with a 77-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Lefty Anthony Kay held the Phillies scoreless in four innings on Saturday giving up just one hit and striking out six. The Phillies are going to be without injured shortstop Didi Gregorius and also likely won't have Harper and catcher J.T. Realmuto. Both left Saturday's 4-0 loss to the Blue Jays with injuries. Harper has shoulder soreness while Realmuto has a sore wrist. Andrew McCutchen also had a hip problem in that game so he may sit out today. | |||||||
05-16-21 | Islanders v. Penguins -125 | 4-3 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a fair price to back the Penguins at home. Pittsburgh finally has gotten healthy and is primed for a serious Stanley Cup run. The Islanders don't enter the Stanley Cup playoffs with momentum, losers of seven of their past 10 games. They are 2-8 in their past 10 road contests and lost six of eight times to the Penguins during the regular season. Pittsburgh is a dominant 39-14 in its last 53 home games for 73 percent. The Penguins haven't forgotten the Islanders sweeping them in the first round of the playoffs two years ago. | |||||||
05-15-21 | Heat v. Bucks +4.5 | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
It's no secret the physical, defensive-minded, well-coached Heat match up well to the Bucks. Miami proved that in a convincing manner last season eliminating the Bucks in five games during the second round of the playoffs. There's also conjecture the Bucks could be sitting out players here. There's already been tremendous early line movement to the Heat. But, even in a worst-case scenario, Milwaukee has enough depth and bench strength to cover this number at home. It's a huge plus if the Bucks do give meaningful minutes to their regulars. | |||||||
05-15-21 | Cubs v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
I can easily envision each team producing at least four runs in a pitching matchup of Trevor Williams versus Jose Urena, especially considering the bullpens. Williams is 0-2 with a 10.64 ERA on the road this season. The Cubs are vulnerable in middle relief. Urena is 1-4 on the season with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. The Tigers could have the worst bullpen in the majors. The Cubs are almost at full strength and have their two key hitters, Kris Bryant and Javier Baez, back in the lineup and swinging well. | |||||||
05-15-21 | Canucks +180 v. Oilers | 4-1 | Win | 180 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Vancouver managed to upset Edmonton, 6-3, on the road nine days ago. But this handicap is all about taking a huge price going against the Oilers, who are locked into their playoff spot and thinking more about the Stanley Cup than this meaningless matchup. This is a day game for the Oilers. They have their focus on meeting the Jets in their first-round Stanley Cup series starting Wednesday. The Canucks have endured a bizarre schedule and season because of COVID. But they've had a full day to rest and prepare after losing, 4-1, to the Flames this past Thursday. The Canucks still are playing hard. They may run out of gas with games Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday against the Flames. But they should be somewhat fresh here. | |||||||
05-14-21 | Indians -107 v. Mariners | 3-7 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Maybe I'm missing something here. But if I am, I'm not sure what it is because I'm surprised the Indians are such a short favorite. The Indians check the boxes. Current form? Cleveland is 9-1 in its last 10 games. Seattle has lost five in a row. Pitting matchup: Aaron Civale is 5-0 with a 2.91 ERA. He's a solid No. 3 rotation starter. Chris Flexen has a 3.78 ERA. He's a bottom-end type rotation starter. Offense: The Indians are averaging 4.5 runs in their last four games. They rank 17 in runs. The Mariners are averaging 2.2 runs in their past four games. They rank 22nd in runs. History: The Indians have won six of the past seven games against the Mariners. Cleveland is 4-0 in its last four visits to Seattle. | |||||||
05-14-21 | Nuggets v. Pistons +9 | 104-91 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
The Nuggets are a bit fat and happy going 2-0 on their current road trip and having home-court advantage clinched for the first round of the playoffs. This is their second to last game of the regular season so the Nuggets could rest a key player or two. Denver's objective is the playoffs, not steamrolling the Pistons by double-digits. Detroit has been getting good play from 2019 first round pick Sekou Doumbouya and its first-round picks this season - Saddiq Bey, Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart and Saben Lee. The youthful Pistons are in full rebuild so it's no surprise they've been up-and-down this season, mostly down. But Detroit should be up for this home matchup. The Pistons are off an embarrassing 19-point home loss to the Timberwolves this past Tuesday. They've had ample rest and prep time for this game. Pistons management showed its commitment to Dwane Casey extending his contract. Casey would very much like his Pistons to finish strong. This is their chance. | |||||||
05-14-21 | Cubs -132 v. Tigers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Cubs minus $1.35 at Tigers In Jake we trust? I don't know if I can fully commit to Jake Arrieta, but I do know I want to fade Tarik Skubal. The Tigers are 0-5 in Skubal's starts. A big reason for this is Skubal has a 5.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Skubal doesn't figure to get bailed out either by a bullpen that is the worst in baseball with a 6.55 ERA through this past Wednesday. Arrieta was pitching well up until his last start giving up two earned runs or fewer in four of his five starts. His ERA was 2.57 through five starts. But then he faced the Reds, the second-highest scoring team in the majors, and was hit for seven runs in 3 1/3 innings on April 30. Arrieta was bothered by a cut on his right thumb during that start, which could explain his poor performance. This will be Arrieta's first time pitching since then. He's facing a weak Detroit lineup that ranks 29th in runs and is last in OPS. The Cubs were 5-1 until losing a pair of one-run games to the Indians with one of those defeats occurring when going against Shane Bieber. So certainly no shame in that. The Cubs were getting base runners, but went a mind-boggling 2-for-27 in runners in scoring position during that Indians series. That should change against Skubal and a terrible Detroit bullpen. The Cubs are banged-up, but were idle on Thursday. So today they could see a return to the lineup of Kris Bryant, Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner. | |||||||
05-13-21 | Reds v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Chi Chi Gonzalez entered this season as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. He has lived up to that billing with a 5.97 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. Luis Castillo entered this year as one of the better pitchers in the National League. Castillo has not lived up to that reputation with a 6.42 ERA and 1.63 WHIP. Neither bullpen is very good. The Reds had the worst bullpen ERA in the National League going into Wednesday. Cincinnati is short of relievers with Amir Garrett suspended. The Reds' bullpen also carries a fatigue rating after working 5 1/3 innings on Wednesday. Gonzalez has an 11.42 ERA in two May starts. He may not be holding a starting spot too much longer. The Reds rank second in the majors in runs and third in homers. Both teams have been on good Over runs. The Over is 13-6-1 in Cincinnati's last 20 games, while the Rockies have gone Over in 13 of their last 17 games. | |||||||
05-13-21 | Wild v. Blues -103 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Both teams are locked into their respective playoff spots in the West Division. The feeling I get, though, is the Blues want this game more. St. Louis blanked Minnesota, 4-0, two days ago behind backup goalie Ville Husso. It was the Blues' fourth straight home win against Minnesota. The Blues could get back a couple of key contributors, winger Vladimir Tarasenko and defenseman Vince Dunn. Center Tyler Bozak could see action, too, after being rested this past Wednesday. The Blues also are expected to go with their starting goalie, Jordan Binnington. The Wild, whose hopes to finish higher than third in the West, were dashed by Wednesday's defeat to the Blues, are expected to go with backup Kaapo Kahkonen in goal and could be resting a number of other regulars. | |||||||
05-13-21 | Magic +12.5 v. Hawks | Top | 93-116 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
Tight victories against the Wizards on Monday and Wednesday have pushed the Hawks into their first playoff spot in four years. The Hawks are thrilled, relieved and exhausted after nipping Washington, 125-124, three days ago and beating the Wizards, 120-116, last night. This sets up a tremendous letdown spot for the Hawks in today's game against the lowly Magic. This is the Hawks' third game in four days and second in two nights. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. The Magic held the Bucks, the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA, to 114 points in their last game this past Tuesday. That was six points under the Bucks' season average. The youthful Magic should play hard here, but the situation is the No. 1 factor why Orlando should keep things close. | |||||||
05-12-21 | Rockets +13.5 v. Lakers | 122-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm anticipating a monster letdown from the Lakers after their gutty, 101-99, home overtime win against the Knicks Tuesday night. The Lakers accomplished that minus LeBron James. James is expected to make his return in this game. You couldn't blame the Lakers for taking the Rockets lightly, at least subconsciously, especially with the news that James is returning to the lineup. Houston is 5-43 in its last 48 games establishing itself as the worst team in the West if not the entire NBA. But the Rockets have covered their last three games and should get back Christian Wood, their best big man. They have some underrated backup-caliber guards, too, who can look good against LA's depleted backcourt that is minus Dennis Schroder and possibly Alex Caruso. Houston could catch a major break if the Lakers decided to hold out Anthony Davis, who tweaked his groin during the victory against the Knicks. | |||||||
05-12-21 | Blazers v. Jazz -126 | 105-98 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Simple task for Utah. The Jazz clinch the No. 1 overall playoff seed if they beat the Trail Blazers, Thunder and Kings. This is the tough one left on Utah's regular season schedule so I anticipate the Jazz being up for it. Moreso because Utah is coming off a loss. Golden State halted the Jazz's five-game win streak with a 119-16 home win two days ago. The Jazz held Stephen Curry to 10-of-24 shooting from the floor in the loss. That doesn't bode well for Damian Lillard. Utah is 22-10 ATS the past 32 times as a home favorite. The Jazz are 2-0 versus Portland this season winning by an average of 19.5 points. | |||||||
05-12-21 | Golden Knights v. Sharks UNDER 6 | 6-0 | Push | 0 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights are dealing with injuries. Among those injured is Max Pacioretty, the team's top goal scorer. He has missed the last five games. Las Vegas was down to just 15 shakers - three below normal - in a 2-1 home loss to the Avalanche this past Monday. This is a bitter and heated rivalry. The Under has cashed eight of the last 11 times between the two teams. So I can't count on the Golden Knights to produce a lot of goals. But I can count on them to have a strong defensive game especially since Marc-Andre Fleury will be back in net after not playing against Colorado. The Golden Knights have not permitted more than two goals per game during Fleury's last eight starts. Fleury won't have to worry about Sharks team captain and third-leading goal scorer, Logan Couture. He's out with an injury. | |||||||
05-12-21 | Maple Leafs v. Senators +170 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 170 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
This is a huge Ontario rivalry. Given the circumstances, the Senators probably should be the favorite instead of a massive home 'dog. The Maple Leafs have nothing to play for in this game. They have already clinched the North Division and the No. 1 seed in the division. Toronto coach Sheldon Keefe has made it clear his intention and priority is to rest healthy players and get his injured players slowly back into form if they are able to play. Another priority is getting rusty goalie Frederik Andersen up to speed. Andersen has been the Maple Leafs' first string goalie. However, he hasn't played in the NHL since March 19 due to a knee injury. Andersen didn't look good in a couple of AHL appearances, but Keefe wants to prepare him for the playoffs. He has this game and the Leafs' final regular season game on Friday against the Jets to do that. Ottawa has been playing well going 8-3 in its last 11 games. The Senators, though, are off a bad 6-1 road loss to the Flames this past Sunday. This is Ottawa's final game of the season since it won't be in the playoffs. The Senators want to close their season looking good. So this is a much more important game for them. This has been a home team series, too, lately with the host winning four of the past five times. | |||||||
05-12-21 | Maple Leafs v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
The Under is 11-2-1 in the Senators' last 14 home games. Ottawa has given up just six goals during its last four home games. The Senators' strong defense at home should continue here. Toronto has multiple injuries and figures to be resting starters having clinched the North Division. This could lead to a conservative game plan from the Maple Leafs, who also don't want goalie Frederick Andersen embarrassed if he's in goal for the first time since March 19. The Maple Leafs haven't surrendered more than two goals in regulation during their last seven games. | |||||||
05-12-21 | Oilers v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
I don't see either team pushing pace, or showing much in this meaningless matchup. The Oilers are the No. 2 seed in the North Division, while the Canadiens backed into the playoffs after getting a point in a 4-3 overtime loss to the Oilers two days ago. The teams could meet in the playoffs so neither will want to tip their hand. So I see a vanilla type of low-scoring, conservative game. The Canadiens are in action for the 25th time in 44 days. They are likely to rest key regulars in order to get fresh for the postseason. The Oilers don't want to risk injury by overextending their superstars. This past Monday's game was just the second time in the last nine meetings that the Oilers-Canadiens went Over the total. There was just one goal scored in the third period. It was 3-2 more than halfway through the third period. | |||||||
05-11-21 | Magic v. Bucks -13 | Top | 102-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
The Bucks have something to prove physically and mentally after being embarrassed, 146-125, on the road by the Spurs Monday night. Milwaukee certainly is going to be motivated for tonight's home game and the Bucks have the perfect patsy to get themselves right again - the Magic. Orlando has lost 18 of 24 since dumping their top players at the trade deadline. The Magic are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games. The Bucks are giving up an unsightly 137.7 points during their last three games. It's been a combination of lackluster defense and hot offenses that have caused this. Milwaukee should clamp down defensively here. Orlando is second-to-last in scoring and last in field goal percentage. The Bucks trail the Nets by one game for second-place in the Eastern Conference. So they will have incentive. The Bucks have dominated the Magic winning the past six meetings while going 5-0-1 ATS. This includes the Bucks' two victories against the Magic this season by an average of 29.5 points. | |||||||
05-11-21 | Yankees v. Rays +119 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
I can see the Yankees being a road favorite against the Rays if Gerrit Cole is on the mound. But he isn't here. It's Jordan Montgomery so this number is off. The Yankees have a lot of trouble against the Rays, going 5-18 during the last 23 meetings. New York has lost eight of the past 10 times on Astroturf, too. Quirky Tropicana Field gives the Rays a solid home field edge, especially against the Yankees. Montgomery won his first start back on April 5. He hasn't won since. He has a 4.41 ERA on the season and a bad history versus the Rays - 1-3 with a 5.63 ERA. This includes two starts against the Rays this season where he's 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings. The Yankees are going to have to deal with Luis Patino for a few innings. He's an exciting young fireballer with 10 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings and a 1.17 ERA. The Yankees have never faced him, which is to their disadvantage. Tampa Bay has continued its domination of the Yankees this year going 5-1. I don't see that domination ending in this matchup. | |||||||
05-11-21 | Bruins v. Capitals UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show | |
The Capitals have clinched second place in the East Division. The Bruins just clinched third place in the East with a 3-2 overtime victory against the Islanders on Monday. So both teams are locked into their playoff seedings. I'm expecting a very vanilla type of game because of this especially given the Bruins having won a huge game last night and the Capitals nursing multiple injuries to key players. There's no reason for either team to go all out here, or show any new wrinkles right before the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Capitals couldn't even field the usual number of 18 players during their last game, a 2-1 victory against the Flyers this past Saturday. Now, because of either injury or COVID-19 protocol, the Capitals could be without superstar Alex Ovechkin, their two top centers - Nicklas Backstom and Evgeny Kuznetsov - star defenseman John Carlson, T.J. Oshie and enforcer Tom Wilson. Carlson's loss actually would be a plus for the Under since he's arguably the best offensive defenseman in the league. The Capitals are likely to play more conservative if he's out. | |||||||
05-10-21 | Jazz -3 v. Warriors | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
There's a class difference here worthy enough to lay the road points. The Jazz are 6-1 in their last seven games riding a five-game win streak. No rest stops for them, though, as they hold just a 1 1/2-game lead on the Suns for the top spot in the Western Conference. The Warriors also have been playing well. But they've also played a bunch of bunnies lately. Their last six games have been against the Thunder twice, Pelicans twice, Rockets and Timberwolves. Only the Pelicans have a slim chance of making the playoffs among that dreck. Utah has covered nine of the last 12 in this series and is 4-1 ATS in its past five visits to Golden State. | |||||||
05-10-21 | Blues v. Kings +120 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
You may think this is a cheap price for the Blues to lay against the Kings, who won't be making the playoffs. This is all about the situation, though. St. Louis clinched a playoff spot this past Friday. The Blues are locked into the fourth spot in the Pacific Division regardless of this outcome. So Blues coach Craig Berube isn't going to risk an injury to any of his players. He's going to be resting his regulars and getting ready for the postseason. The Blues have eight regulars who are 30 or older. The Kings won't be letting up. This is their final home game so a strong effort should be forthcoming. LA coach Todd McLellan has made it clear to his team - both youngsters and veterans - that they are playing for their jobs and futures. The Kings have shown determination and competitiveness in their last four games beating the Coyotes - who still held playoff hope at the time - twice and losing to the powerful Avalanche twice by one goal in each loss. | |||||||
05-09-21 | Pelicans +4 v. Hornets | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker has overcompensated for the Pelicans not having injured Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram. Granted those are New Orleans' two best players. The Hornets, however, have five rotation players either out or questionable. So they're dealing with injuries, too. Not only are the Pelicans in must-win mode needing to move up one spot to qualify for the play-in tournament, but the intensity for this matchup is increased because it's a meeting of the Ball brothers, Lonzo and LeMelo. The Pelicans hung in against a much tougher foe than the Hornets this past Friday, losing to the 76ers on the road, 109-107, despite not having Williamson and Ingram. That was the fifth straight road game the Pelicans have covered. They also are 4-0 ATS during their past four visits to Charlotte. | |||||||
05-09-21 | Stars v. Blackhawks +140 | 2-4 | Win | 140 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks showed a little life pulling out a 2-1 overtime road win against Carolina this past Thursday in their last game. But really my entire handicap here is a fade on the Stars. Dallas has to be demoralized. The Stars were impressive in a 5-2 win against the Lightning this past Friday. But on Saturday the Stars found out their playoff hopes were ended by the Predators defeating the Hurricanes. So I don't see how the Stars get motivated for this meaningless matchup. The Blackhawks have played Dallas tough this season going 2-2-2. The Stars have lost four of their last five road games. At this big of a 'dog price, I'll take a shot with Chicago. | |||||||
05-09-21 | Rays v. A's -109 | 4-3 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay rookie Shane McClanahan has electric stuff. He's shown that through two big league starts. But how is his command? How is his control? How much stamina does he have? I don't have those questions for Oakland starter Cole Irvin. He's earned trust with me going 3-1 with a 1.42 ERA during his last four starts. Irvin is coming off eight innings of work against the Blue Jays where he allowed only one run with nine strikeouts this past Tuesday. The A's are strong at home and have been playing well winning 20 of their last 27 games. The Rays have two significant injuries to the middle of their defense with center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and catcher Francisco Mejia both out with injuries. | |||||||
05-09-21 | Knicks v. Clippers UNDER 216.5 | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
The Knicks are coming off an embarrassing, 128-105, loss to the Suns from Friday night. That was the third-most points the Knicks have surrendered during regulation. New York is the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA in scoring defensive, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Knicks should be highly motivated here and for them that starts and ends with defense. The Clippers rank fifth defensively giving up 108 points per game. That number goes down to 106 a game counting just the last seven contests. The Knicks rank 26th in scoring. Two other factors for why this should be a lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker envisions: Pace and game time. The Knicks play at the slowest tempo in the NBA. The Clippers have played at the slowest pace in the league during the last five games. This is an early start time, too. So the shooting rhythm could be off. | |||||||
05-08-21 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 226 | Top | 116-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Both teams are coming off huge efforts on Friday night. Utah got past the Nuggets, 127-120, at home while the short-handed Rockets turned in a gutty performance in a 141-133 loss to the Bucks on the road. I'm anticipating a letdown from both sides here, which sets up a less-than-intense game with sloppy defense. Houston ranks 27th in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Rockets give up 116 points per game. That number shoots up to allowing 127.1 points if you go by their last seven games. Utah is the No. 3 scoring team in the NBA at 116.6. The Jazz don't need Donovan Mitchell's scoring if Bojan Bogdanovic stays hot. Bogdanovic made 16-of-23 shots from the floor, including eight 3-pointers, in scoring 48 points against the Nuggets. Utah is coming off scoring 127 versus the Nuggets and 126 against the Spurs in its last two games, both of which were at home. The Spurs rank 15th defensively while the Nuggets give up the ninth-fewest points in the league. Houston is far worse defensively. The Rockets put up 133 points on the Bucks despite having only eight players. The Rockets were missing Christian Wood and Kevin Porter Jr. versus the Bucks. It's a nice bonus if either, or both, were to play today. Kelly Olynyk continues to contribute strong offensive numbers inside and the Rockets have respectable backcourt scoring depth with Armoni Brooks and D.J. Augustin. If fatigue hits the Rockets, which it very well could, it will show on defense. The Over has cashed in five of Houston's last six games when it played without rest. | |||||||
05-08-21 | Ducks v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a special game for Anaheim. It's the Ducks' final game of the season and they're being sentimental about it putting Ryan Miller in goal. This will be Miller's last game of his 18-year NHL career as he is retiring. I have to believe the Ducks will play ultra-conservative, doing their best not to let Miller get embarrassed. A slower-paced tempo is fine by the Wild. Minnesota coach Dean Evason was not pleased with how his team played in a 4-3 overtime win against the Ducks on Friday. Evason is more about discipline and grit rather than flash and style. Minnesota goalie Cam Talbot has a 1.34 goals-against average and .951 save percentage in three starts against the Ducks this season. Lifetime, Talbot has a 2.04 GAA and .935 saver percentage in 20 games against the Ducks. Anaheim is the lowest-scoring team in the NHL averaging just 2.2 goals per game. It's a big reason why the Under has cashed in 11 of the Ducks' last 15 games. | |||||||
05-08-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9 | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
The Red Sox are the No. 1 scoring team in baseball averaging 5.2 runs per game. That figure rises to 7 runs per game if you go by the last seven games. Boston draws lefty Zac Lowther, making his first big league start, probably followed by a bevy of Baltimore relievers as this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Orioles. The Red Sox are 7-3 versus lefty starters. Garrett Richards will be on the hill for Boston. He's pitched better his last two starts, but struggled early in the season when he had to go against the Orioles twice. This already is the Orioles' third look at Richards, whose career record against the Orioles is 0-5 with a 6.38 ERA in 10 appearances, including six starts. The Orioles have been getting runners on base. They've scored 5 or more runs in four of their last six games. | |||||||
05-07-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Expect a loose game with both teams now eliminated from Stanley Cup competition. That should result in at least six goals being scored. Arizona ranks 23rd defensively. San Jose is 30th defensively. The Coyotes have permitted at least 3 goals in all but one of their last six games. The Sharks have given up 3 or more goals in 12 of their last 14 games. They are going to be starting backup goalie Josef Korenar, who has a 3.04 goals against average. The Over has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between the two teams. | |||||||
05-07-21 | Lakers +8.5 v. Blazers | Top | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
No LeBron James. No Dennis Schroder. OK, now that's out the way here's why the Lakers keep this game close, if not pull the outright upset: The Trail Blazers are playing their first home game since April 25. They've been on the road since turning in an impressive 5-1 away mark during this span. So this is a dangerous spot for the Trail Blazers, who have lost their LAST six home games. The Lakers are 1-4 in their past five games. Their win was against the Nuggets, which is impressive. LA's losses, though, were to the Clippers, Raptors, Kings and Wizards. The Kings and Wizards have been sizzling. Anthony Davis is expected to play after logging just nine minutes in his last game. Davis is calling this matchup the biggest game the Lakers have left on their regular season. | |||||||
05-07-21 | Blues v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
These teams have a strong Over tendency when meeting each other with the high side being 8-1-1 the past 10 times. The Blues are a slight above average scoring team with a below average defense. They have allowed at least 3 goals in eight of their last 10 games. The Golden Knights are the fourth-highest scoring team in the NHL, averaging 3.4 goals a game. Las Vegas has scored at least 3 goals in 11 of its last 12 games. | |||||||
05-07-21 | Nuggets v. Jazz -4 | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Both teams are banged-up, but have been surviving very nicely. The Jazz are still elite even if Donovan Mitchell isn't ready to return to the lineup. The Nuggets keep losing players. They've been without star shooting guard Jamal Murray and now have a serious crisis in the backcourt with Monte Morris, sparkplug Will Barton and P.J. Dozier all injured. Look for that to catch up to the Nuggets in Salt Lake City, a place they have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 visits. The Jazz have been home since May going 3-0 SU and ATS since then beating the Spurs twice and Raptors once. The Nuggets are 2-4 ATS in their last six road contests, with one of those covers occurring versus hapless Houston. There is too much for the Nuggets to overcome and the spread is fair to back the home favorite. | |||||||
05-07-21 | White Sox -145 v. Royals | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Best American League pitcher in April? Allow me to nominate Carlos Rodon, who went 4-0 with a 0.72 ERA. Rodon has given up just two earned runs in 25 innings and has 36 strikeouts. The Royals had been a major surprise, but reality is catching to them. They've lost five in a row to fall out of first place in the AL Central. The Royals are hoping Brad Keller, backed by a cold Royals bullpen that has a 5.80 ERA during the last two weeks, can halt the skid. Not in this spot, though. Keller hasn't contributed to the Royals' early success with an 8.06 ERA. The White Sox are 22-9 the past 31 times as road chalk and have won seven in a row at Kansas City. | |||||||
05-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Pistons +9.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The Grizzlies aren't good enough to cover a road spread this high considering the situation they are in. This marks Memphis' fifth game in seven days. The Grizzlies just defeated the Timberwolves, 139-135, in a wild game on Wednesday night. Memphis is 1-4 ATS the last five times it has been favored. The Pistons are in a youth movement. But they have received strong play from rookies Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes. Those three combined, however, to shoot 4-for-23 in the Pistons' last game. That was two days ago against the Hornets. Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Josh Jackson and Wayne Ellington didn't play for Detroit in that game. Still, the Pistons only lost, 102-99. The Pistons are 15-6-1 the past 22 times following a loss. They can hang in against this foe, particularly given the Grizzlies' high fatigue rating. | |||||||
05-06-21 | Tigers v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | 9-12 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Nathan Eovaldi has come through as a good No. 2 pitcher for the Red Sox. He's had four of six excellent starts and is facing a weak Tigers lineup that ranks 30th in runs, batting average and OPS. Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull has pitched better than his 4.50 ERA may indicate. He's a sinkerball pitcher. So I don't anticipate the Red Sox beating him with the long ball. Ron Kulpa is slated to be the home plate umpire. He has a good Under reputation that is backed by the Under going 28-20 (58 percent) the past four years when he's been behind the plate. | |||||||
05-05-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -118 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
I had the A's at around this price Tuesday night and I'm coming right back on them. Oakland has won 11 of its last 13 home games. The A's have faced lefty starters in four of their last five games, going 4-1 in those games. Long-term, the A's have won 75 percent of their last 63 games versus southpaw starters. This doesn't bode well for Toronto starter, southpaw. Robbie Ray. I think every fantasy baseball owner has flirted with Ray at some point in some league. Ray always disappoints. Yes he gets strikeouts. But he also walks way too many batters, which leads to a high ERA and ratio. I prefer Oakland starter Chris Bassitt, who has become dependable. He's 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts with at least eight strikeouts in each of these starts. The Blue Jays are missing several players as George Springer is hurt again. Also out is catcher Alejandro Kirk. | |||||||
05-05-21 | Suns v. Hawks UNDER 228 | 103-135 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
There shouldn't be any cheap baskets in this one. The Hawks rank third in 3-point defense, while the Suns are fifth-best in defending 3-pointers. Don't expect a fast pace from the Suns and veteran point guard Chris Paul. Phoenix is playing for the fourth time in six days, third in four days and second in two nights having defeated the Cavaliers in overtime on Tuesday. Paul, who turns 36 on Thursday, logged nearly 36 minutes last night. If you discount a pair of road contests against the 76ers, the Hawks are giving up an average of only 103.6 points in their last five games. The Under has cashed six of the past seven times the Hawks have hosted the Suns. | |||||||
05-05-21 | Pirates v. Padres -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 104 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Neither team has been scoring much. The difference is the Pirates aren't going to break loose eventually like the Padres are because they don't have the offense and stars that San Diego possess. That, in a nutshell, explains the pitching matchup, too, of JT Brubaker versus Yu Darvish. Brubaker has been a highly pleasant surprise for the Pirates with a 2.63 ERA. Perhaps Brubaker will continue to pitch extremely well, but his metrics suggest he's due for regression, including a hard contact ratio and a 91.2 left on base percentage. Darvish is at the superstar level with a 3-1 record and 2.13 ERA. That ERA shrinks to 1.35 ERA if you take Darvish's last 33 1/3 innings. The Pirates are averaging two runs during their last five games. | |||||||
05-04-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -119 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
I like the A's at home. I especially like the pitching matchup for them here and the price is right to back them. Oakland is one of the toughest places to play for opposing teams. The A's have won 10 of their last 12 home games. I had some doubts about Cole Irvin being in a big-league rotation. But Irvin has reached a trust level for me going 2-1 with a 1.56 ERA during his last three starts. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 20-to-2 during this span. Anthony Kay is slated to make his second start of the season for Toronto. Kay's first start didn't go well. He gave up four earned runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings in a 7-5 loss to the Royals on April 15. The Blue Jays have been reluctant to start him since. | |||||||
05-04-21 | Mavs v. Heat OVER 215.5 | Top | 127-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Going by season statistics this total seems about right. Both Dallas and Miami are top-10 defenses. However, current form-wise this total is too low. Discounting a 111-99 loss this past Sunday to the Kings, their jinx team, the Mavericks are averaging 124.3 points in their last three games. The Heat have surrendered at least 110 points in three of their last four games. Miami, though, is averaging 120.3 points in its past three games. Dallas has permitted 110 or more points in 10 of its last 13 games. The Mavericks still probably won't have back injured big man Kristaps Porzingis, but they are expected to have back gunner Tim Hardaway Jr. Porzingis does provide inside scoring, but his absence would open things up inside offensively for the Heat. The Heat could be without Andre Iguodala, who has a hip injury. He's a top-notch defender so that would be a plus for the Under. | |||||||
05-04-21 | Islanders -1.5 v. Sabres | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
A flat performance and outstanding goaltending from Buffalo fourth-stringer Michael Houser did in the Islanders in a 4-2 loss on Monday. I'm not expecting a repeat. Buffalo is 17-40 following a victory. The Islanders had beaten the Sabres in the previous six meetings this season with five of those victories occurring by multiple goals. The last time the Sabres defeated the Islanders two straight times during the regular season was nine years ago. Even not performing well, the Islanders still outplayed the hapless Sabres in two of three periods. Houser came up with 34 saves. I doubt he plays that well again against a determined Islanders squad that will be taking Buffalo far more seriously this time around. | |||||||
05-03-21 | Kings v. Coyotes -134 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -134 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
This late in the regular season, it's vital to find out which teams have incentive AND are playing hard and which teams have packed it in. This contrast between these two teams was made obvious this past weekend. The Coyotes showed life and energy nearly sweeping the powerful Golden Knights at home. Arizona is pushing for the final playoff spot in the West Division. The Coyotes ended Las Vegas' 10-game win streak this past Friday with a 3-0 victory and then nearly upset the Golden Knights again on Saturday losing, 3-2, in overtime. The Kings were the complete opposite. Even though mathematically their playoff hopes are alive, the players and coach know they aren't achieving the impossible. They are not making the postseason. LA nipped the Ducks, 2-1, this past Friday by scoring in the final minute. The Ducks, who have the second-fewest points in the NHL, then soundly whacked the listless Kings, 6-2, Saturday night. Following that loss to the Ducks this is what Kings coach Todd McLellan had to say, "We're not going to make the playoffs. I just don't see how that's going to happen." Now both teams have to suck it up and play their third game in four days. The Coyotes are 4-0 the past four times when favored. The Kings are 2-7 the past nine times when playing for the third time in four days. | |||||||
05-03-21 | Rays -112 v. Angels | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Tyler Glasnow at a very reasonable lay price. That's pretty much my handicap in a nutshell. Except for one bad start against the Blue Jays, Glasnow has been unhittable. He's allowed just two earned runs in his other five starts spanning 31 2/3 innings with 46 strikeouts. Shohei Ohtani can't come close to matching that. Ohtani has yet to reach the sixth inning. He's given up 13 walks in 13 2/3 innings. The Rays have won five of their last six road games. They draw the Angels in their first home game following a nine-game road trip. Tampa Bay has dominated this series winning 14 of the last 19 times. | |||||||
05-03-21 | Bruins v. Devils OVER 5.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
The Bruins are going to get their share of goals against the Devils, who have allowed at least 3 goals in 15 of their last 16 games and rank last in penalty killing. Boston has scored 3 or more goals in nine of its last 11 games. The Bruins are averaging 4.6 goals during their last three games. The key is how many goals can the Devils put up to help get Over this total? New Jersey should contribute its share. The Devils are showing a lot of energy in posting a three-game win streak. They are averaging 4.5 goals in their last four games. | |||||||
05-03-21 | Capitals -110 v. Rangers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
The Rangers are banged-up, in a scoring slump and drawing the Capitals, who are likely to be reinforced with Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson returning from injuries. Those are the Capitals' two best players. Their return makes this even more of a bad matchup for the Rangers, who are not a physical team. New York has surrendered 3 or more goals in seven of its last nine games. The Capitals are the second-highest scoring team in the NHL at 3.4 goals per game. The Rangers have been shut out in their last two games. They have been down multiple players, including Chris Kreider, Brett Howden, Ryan LIndgren and Jacob Trouba. | |||||||
05-02-21 | Lightning v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
The Red Wings are becoming a dead nuts Under team. Detroit has allowed only five goals in regulation during its past four games. However, the Red Wings have scored two or fewer goals in seven of their last eight games as multiple injuries to their best scorers have taken a toll. The Red Wings realize their only hope is to play conservative and not get caught up in an up-tempo style since they have no firepower. They got away with this on Saturday edging the Lightning, 1-0, in a shootout. Detroit managed just 15 shots on goal and couldn't score against Lightning backup goalie Curtis McElhinney during regulation and overtime. Now Detroit could get Andrei Vasilevskiy, perhaps the best goalie in the NHL. | |||||||
05-02-21 | Lightning -1.5 v. Red Wings | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
The Lightning thoroughly outplayed the Red Wings as expected on Saturday. What wasn't expected was the Red Wings pulling out a 1-0 shootout win. Tampa Bay outshot Detroit, 33-15, but blew a number of good scoring chances. The Lightning won't be taking the Red Wings lightly in this shortest of revenge setting. They also likely won't be playing their backup goalie again. I see this as a kill spot for the Lightning. Detroit has no firepower. The Red Wings have only scored more than two goals once in their eight games. Tampa Bay is the No. 3 scoring team in the NHL at 3.4 goals per game. | |||||||
05-02-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 16-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 42 m | Show |
I don't see the Brewers sweeping the Dodgers. Not with a pitching matchup of Julio Urias versus Alec Bettinger. Not with Milwaukee missing 15 players, including Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Omar Narvaez. Not with star relief pitcher Josh Hader almost certainly not being able to pitch. Urias has been one of the better pitchers during the last two seasons. His brilliance is overshadowed, though, being on such a strong Dodgers pitching staff. Urias is 3-0 with a 3.23 ERA this season. His last regular season loss was back in 2019. He is 2-1 lifetime versus the Brewers with a 2.86 ERA in four career starts. Bettinger will be making his big league debut. He is considered the Brewers' No. 23 prospect. Hader has pitched an inning each of the last three days, throwing a total of 45 pitches during this span. So I doubt the Brewers use him today. | |||||||
05-01-21 | Nuggets v. Clippers -5 | Top | 110-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Early speculation is the Clippers will have superstar Kawhi Leonard for this game. Leonard has played just once during the last three weeks because of a sore foot. The Clippers have been targeting this matchup for Leonard to play. Even if Leonard has to sit out another game, I still like the Clippers to cover. LA is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games. Denver is 8-1 since losing its star, Jamal Murray. The Nuggets, though, have played weak-to-mediocre teams during this stretch. They are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. | |||||||
05-01-21 | Stars v. Predators -103 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
I like the way this game sets up for Nashville. The Predators are home and have had ample time to rest and prepare since they last played on Tuesday, a game they lost, 7-4, at home to the Panthers. It's rare this late in the season for a team to get a three-day break like that. Dallas, on the other, is coming off a 3-0 shutout loss to the Lightning two days ago. This will be the Stars' fourth game in six days. The Stars have lost 21 of the last 29 times against above .500 opponents. Nashville has defeated Dallas in four of the last five meetings. | |||||||
05-01-21 | Pistons +7 v. Hornets | 94-107 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
The Hornets haven't been favored by this many points all season. I don't see it here. Not with the Hornets minus Gordon Hayward and LeMelo Ball. The Pistons have proven spunky. Their main rookies - Saddiq Bey, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes - have been playing well. Detroit is off a double-digit loss at home to the Mavericks. This is a step down in class for the Pistons, who usually play well following a defeat. They are 11-0 ATS in their next game after a double-digit home loss. | |||||||
05-01-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Forks, knives out. The Reds are ready to feast drawing Zach Davies at their great hitting home park. Davies probably isn't staying in the Cubs' starting rotation too much longer with a 9.47 ERA and 15 walks in 19 innings. Davies hasn't made it to the fifth inning during his past four starts. His ERA is 12.15 during this span. The Reds are leading the majors in runs scored at 5.4. The Over has cashed in 11 of their 13 home games for 85 percent. The Cubs' offense is coming around scoring 15 runs during the last two days. Chicago gets disappointing Luis Castillo, who has been terrible with a 6.29 ERA. This isn't a fluke either. Castillo's metrics back up how poorly he's pitched. Castillo's confidence is down. So this is a good spot for another Reds home Over. | |||||||
05-01-21 | Lightning v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | 0-1 | Win | 101 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
The Red Wings weren't much offensively when they were at full strength. Now that they are enduring multiple injuries to key scorers, the Red Wings could be the worst offensive team in the NHL. Detroit has managed to score just two or fewer goals in six of its last seven games. The Red Wings have scored two goals during their last three games. Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy could be the top goalie in the NHL with the second-high save percentage and fifth-best GAA at 2.10. The Red Wings understand their only hope of winning is by playing conservative with constant checking, not taking any chances, or getting into an up-tempo matchup. The Red Wings' last three games have reflected that - a 3-1 loss to the Hurricanes, a 1-0 shootout loss to the Blue Jackets and a 2-1 overtime loss to the Stars. Detroit has given up only four goals during regulation in its past three games. | |||||||
04-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes +1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
The Coyotes are in desperation, must-win mode win trailing the Blues for the final playoff spot in the West Division. The Coyotes have a winning record in their past nine home games and are primed to give a strong effort here. The Golden Knights, on the other hand, enter this matchup fat and happy. Their playoff ticket is punched and they are off a highly-satisfying, 5-2, home victory against the Avalanche this past Wednesday. The Golden Knights regard the Avalanche as their main competitor in the Western Conference. This is a prime letdown spot for Las Vegas. So this sets up as a great ambush spot for Arizona. But to play it safe, I'm going to lay the juice and take 1 1/2 goals on the puck line. | |||||||
04-30-21 | Bucks -106 v. Bulls | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
The Bucks have a tremendous track record playing the Bulls on the road covering the past eight times. I expect Milwaukee to make it nine straight against Chicago even without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who played less than a minute before suffering an ankle injury against the Rockets last night. The lowly Rockets stung the Bucks with a 143-136 win. It was the most points the Bucks have surrendered all season. I expect the prideful Bucks to play with super intensity following that humiliation. Milwaukee has the depth to overcome Antetokounmpo's expected absence. The Bulls are without their best player, too, Zach LaVine. He averages just half-a-point less a game than Antetokounmpo at 27.5 points. | |||||||
04-30-21 | Marlins v. Nationals +122 | 1-2 | Win | 122 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Emerging superstar Juan Soto is out for the Nationals. But Washington's injury list is nothing compared to the Marlins. Out for Miami are Starling Marte, Brian Anderson, Jorge Alfaro, Jazz Chisholm, Corey Dickerson and Garrett Cooper. The Marlins have to count on Pablo Lopez to keep them in this game and Lopez has been dreadful against the Nationals. Lopez has a 6.61 versus Washington. That ERA climbs to 8.10 in four starts at Washington. Veteran Jon Lester is set to make his season debut for the Nationals. | |||||||
04-29-21 | Warriors -5 v. Wolves | Top | 114-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
Break up the Timberwolves. Minnesota is riding a season-high three game winning streak. The Timberwolves upset powerful Utah twice and then got past lowly Houston, 114-107, this past Tuesday. The Warriors, a .500 team in a desperate struggle to earn the final spot in the Western Conference play-in tournament, are the first decent opponent Minnesota plays after stunning Utah twice. The Timberwolves have picked up their game since Karl-Anthony Towns, D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards have all been on the court together. But they are overdue for a letdown and I expect the Warriors to bring their "A" game after an embarrassing, 133-103, home loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday. The Warriors have covered each of the last four times following a defeat. | |||||||
04-29-21 | Dodgers -152 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -152 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and possibly even Freddy Peralta might give Trevor Bauer a close game. Not Eric Lauer. So this clearly is that rare case of a mid-size favorite having excellent value as I'd have made Bauer and the Dodgers close to a $2.00 favorite. Bauer had an NL-best 1.73 ERA last year. He's rounding into elite form this season with a 2-0 mark and 1.42 ERA with 25 strikeouts during his last three starts spanning 19 innings. Opponents are batting only .138 against Bauer during this span. The Dodgers have a rested bullpen, too, after Clayton Kershaw threw seven shutout innings in the Dodgers' 8-0 victory against the Reds on Wednesday. The Brewers are 20th in runs and 24th in batting average. Christian Yelich and Lornzo Cain are out. Bauer has a 2.66 ERA in three career starts versus the Brewers with a 32-to-4 strikeouts-to-walks ratio with one of those walks being intentional. Lauer, a lefty, was 0-2 with a 13.09 ERA in four appearances, including two starts, for Milwaukee last year. This is his season debut. The Dodgers, who ranked fourth in runs, have won 26 of their last 38 games against a southpaw starter. | |||||||
04-29-21 | Flyers v. Devils OVER 6 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
Given that the Flyers are the worst defensive team in the NHL and the Devils are the third-worst, was there any surprise when the teams scored 10 goals when they met two days ago? Was it a shock when there were seven goals scored when the two teams played each other this past Sunday? Nope. New Jersey has surrendered four or more goals in eight consecutive games. The Devils have allowed at least three goals in 14 straight games. And the Devils give up fewer goals per game than the Flyers! Neither team is making the playoffs. So this should be another loose game lacking defense. The Over has cashed in 11 of the Flyers' last 14 games. The Flyers have short revenge after the Devils snapped their 10-game winless streak with a 6-4 victory this past Tuesday. The Over has won the past seven times the Flyers have been a road favorite. | |||||||
04-28-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights -127 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Going to ride with the Golden Knights being home and playing in what they consider to be their biggest game of the season. Las Vegas has won a franchise-record nine in a row. The Golden Knights are 40-16 in their past 56 home games. Colorado has dropped two in a row, losing to the Blues, losing 4-1 two days ago and 5-3 this past Saturday. The Golden Knights are the healthier team. Colorado will be missing its leading goal scorer, Mikko Rantanen, right winger Joonas Donskoi and No. 1 goalie Philipp Grubauer, who has had a huge season. Not seeing Rantanen on the ice makes it easier for the Golden Knights to key on Nathan MacKinnon. The Golden Knights own a depth edge and have the size and brawn to take advantage of the Avalanche's undersized defensive corps. | |||||||
04-28-21 | Hawks +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 83-127 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This opening point spread is a case of just looking at the last game's results. Those results from two days ago were the 76ers burying the hapless Thunder, 121-90, while the Hawks were getting upset by the lowly Pistons, 100-86. Before that victory against Oklahoma City, losers of 14 of its last 15 games, the 76ers had dropped four in a row. Philadelphia is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games. The Hawks had upset the Bucks two games ago leaving them ripe for a letdown against the Pistons. Despite multiple injuries, the Hawks have won and covered 11 of their last 15 games. I'm not expecting Trae Young to return to the Hawks' lineup yet. But Clint Capela has been playing as well as any big man in the league. Guard Kris Dunn made his season debut against the Pistons bolstering Atlanta's backcourt depth. It would not surprise me if the 76ers sat out Joel Embiid for this game. Embiid played against the Thunder, but was in pain due to a sore right shoulder. So I'm taking an early position here knowing if Embiid is rested this line will drop sharply. | |||||||
04-28-21 | Royals -116 v. Pirates | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Step to the head of the line if you knew the Royals have the best winning percentage in the majors. Kansas City is 14-8 and should get past Pittsburgh in a pitching matchup of lefty Mike Minor versus Mitch Keller. Minor is a respectable five-inning type pitcher and the Pirates are 0-8 in their past eight interleague games when going against a southpaw starter. Keller has command and control problems. He's 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA in four starts. The Royals have an above average offense and rank No. 2 in steals despite not having Adalberto Mondesi all season. | |||||||
04-27-21 | Phillies -106 v. Cardinals | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
It's time to talk up Zach Eflin. Based on his early season performance, he's now in the argument for best No. 3 starter. Eflin has a 2.77 ERA with a 19-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 26 innings. One of the two walks Elfin gave up was intentional. Philadelphia is 10-2 in Eflin's last 12 starts. The Cardinals rank 22nd in batting average hitting .222. The Phillies, by comparison, have the seventh-highest batting average in the league at .243. St. Louis has been held to two or fewer runs in five of its last eight games. Carlos Martinez will oppose Eflin. Martinez is off his best start in three seasons pitching six innings of one-run baseball against the Nationals five days ago. Martinez, though, still isn't anywhere close to being trusted. He has a 6.00 ERA despite that gem. St. Louis is 0-5 in his last five starts. | |||||||
04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics OVER 216 | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
I understand Oklahoma City's starting lineup of Theo Maledon, Kenrich Williams, Aleksej Pokusevski, Darius Bazley and Moses Brown is not going to bring back memories of the 1992 USA Olympic Dream Team. But the Thunder's lack of marquee talent cuts both ways. Their defense has been horrible. Oklahoma City is giving up an average of 122.8 points in its last seven games. The Thunder just surrendered 121 points to the 76ers last night. The Celtics may not have all of their weapons if Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Robert Williams III have to sit out again. But Boston does have Jaylen Brown and Evan Fournier back. Plus Boston just yielded 125 points to the Hornets two days ago. The Hornets are minus their two most effective offensive players, Gordon Hayward and LaMelo Ball. | |||||||
04-27-21 | Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -130 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
This could be the first time I've ever laid a mid-size price with a team that has lost nine in a row. But I really see the Blue Jackets halting their losing skid. Columbus is home to Detroit. That's the reason. Columbus nearly ended its losing streak this past Sunday falling to defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay, 4-3, in overtime. The Red Wings have been an underdog in each of their last 56 road games. Their record in these contests is 9-47 for 16 percent. Detroit has lost in six of its last seven visits to Columbus. Detroit last played on Saturday falling, 2-1, to the Stars in overtime. That score was misleading, though. The Red Wings were outshot, 52-17. Detroit goalie Jonathan Bernier played well over his head. Elvis Merzlikins is likely to be in net for Columbus. I prefer him over either of Detroit's goalies, Bernier or Thomas Greiss. Discounting a freak 7-3 home win against the Stars, the Red Wings have scored five goals in their last four games. The Red Wings have limited firepower and that has been reduced with injuries to three centers, including Dylan Larkin, and right winger Bobby Ryan. | |||||||
04-26-21 | Coyotes -104 v. Sharks | 4-6 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 52 m | Show | |
The price is right to get on the Sharks fade train. San Jose has lost eight in a row. Only once during their last eight games have the Sharks scored more than two goals in a game. Defense isn't going to bail out the Sharks. They rank 28th defensively allowing 3.3 goals per game. Arizona is holding on to the final playoff spot in the West Division. The Coyotes looked good in their last game, a 4-0 blanking of the Kings in LA two days ago. The Coyotes have problems when stepping up in class. But they are 8-1 the past nine times against sub .500 foes. Arizona has beaten San Jose in five of the past six meetings. | |||||||
04-26-21 | Jazz -9.5 v. Wolves | 104-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The Jazz are tough enough to face under ordinary circumstances. Now the Timberwolves draw Utah in a rapid revenge spot. Minnesota stunned Utah, 101-96, as 12 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. The Jazz hadn't played at home in nine days and were going right back on the road following the game. Utah was distracted and not ready to bury the Timberwolves. The Jazz also were cold, shooting just 40.2 percent from the floor. That won't be the case here. The Jazz should be extremely fired-up and focused. They rank No. 3 in the NBA in scoring at 116.5. Minnesota ranks 29th defensively allowing nearly 118 points per game. The Timberwolves won their first two games of the season. They haven't won two straight since then. Minnesota is 7-18-2 ATS following a victory. The Timberwolves have failed to cover five of the last six times they've hosted Utah. | |||||||
04-26-21 | Hawks v. Pistons +4 | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
The Pistons usually can be counted on for a good effort thanks to Dwane Casey. Detroit is in a great ambush spot here. The Hawks upset the Bucks, 111-104, as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs on Sunday. Atlanta achieved the victory minus its best player, guard Trae Young. The Hawks are short-handed in the backcourt and at wing with Young, De'Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, Tony Snell and Kris Dunn all out. Not only are the Hawks in a letdown spot, but they carry a heavy fatigue rating, too. This marks Atlanta's fifth game in seven days and second in two days. Detroit is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Those losses were on the road. The Pistons are 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two home contests beating the Cavaliers and Thunder. The Hawks are a notch above those teams, but they are just a borderline playoff team not some elite opponent. Detroit has covered 77 percent the past 26 times following a non-cover. The Pistons have been getting strong play from their bench. This could prove crucial given the Hawks' high fatigue status. | |||||||
04-26-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
Both offenses have been underachieving. Here is their chance to get right going against vulnerable starting pitching in a great hitter's park. Youngster Deivi Garcia is set to make his season debut. He had a 4.98 ERA in six games for the Yankees last season. Garcia has a high ceiling, but is still very much a work-in-progress and in the developmental stage. Matt Harvey is going for the Orioles. Need I say more? OK, here's more: Harvey shouldn't be in a big league rotation. His last good season was six years ago. He had an 11.57 ERA last season. His ERA was 7.09 in 2019. This season his ERA is 5.12 in four starts. I don't think he's long to stay in Baltimore's starting rotation. These teams have a strong Over history when playing in Baltimore with the Over cashing 68 percent of the time during the past 51 games. | |||||||
04-25-21 | Kings +9.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
The Kings covered for the eighth time in the past nine meetings against the Warriors when they rolled past Golden State, 141-119, at home on March 25. Sacramento was minus 4 1/2 points in that game. Now look at the spread. Quite a difference. Stephen Curry didn't play in that last meeting. Curry is back anc playing at his highest level, which is considerable. De'Aaron Fox is out for Sacramento due to COVID. Fox is the Kings' best player. Golden State is home this time and will have fans in the stand. This explains the huge point spread differential from the past meeting. But it's not enough to keep me off the Kings. I envision a much closer score than the oddsmaker does. The Kings are in must-win mode trailing the Warriors and Spurs by 5 1/2 games for the final two playoff spots in the West. The loss of Fox is huge. However, it weakens the Kings' bench more than the starting five because star rookie Tyrese Haliburton will move into the starting lineup now. There's a chance the Kings get back big man Richaun Holmes. He's practicing after missing the past five games with a hamstring injury. I'm expecting the Kings to go all out with their starters logging big minutes. The Kings will be well rested having last played this past Wednesday. Sacramento has covered 20 of the past 26 times for 77 percent when playing on three or more day's rest. The Kings have been playing well, too, winning two of their last three games. They have covered their last two road contests upsetting Dallas a week ago and coming within eight points of the Suns on April 15. The Warriors are in a letdown spot coming off a huge and impressive, 118-97, home victory against the Nuggets two days ago. Golden State's depth is down with rotation players Kent Bazemore, Damion Lee, Eric Paschall and James Wiseman all out. So the Kings' backup players won't be so vulnerable. | |||||||
04-25-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
No great insights here. Just strongly believe each team should be good for at least 3 goals apiece given how bad the defenses are. The Devils rank 30th defensively allowing 3.4 goals per game. They've given up at least 3 goals in 12 straight games. The Flyers rank 31st defensively allowing 3.5 goals a game. The Flyers are a heavy favorite. The Over is 18-7-1 the last 26 times Philadelphia has been chalk. | |||||||
04-25-21 | Phillies v. Rockies -107 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
It has been 16 games since the Phillies last won two in a row. I don't see Philadelphia ending that streak here. Like many teams, the Phillies have trouble playing at Coors Field where they have lost eight of the past 10 times. Jon Gray is off to a good start for Colorado. Gray knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He's 2-0 there this season with a 1.47 ERA in three starts. Chase Anderson hasn't had much luck at Coors where he has a fat 6.66 ERA in five career starts versus the Rockies in Denver. Sunday Free Play Rangers plus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.10 (run line) at White Sox The White Sox won the first two games of this series by a combined three runs. I'm expecting another close score with a low total and cold weather with temperatures in the low 40s probably meaning runs will be tough to come by. Texas would be 8-4 in its last 12 games if given plus 1 1/2 runs. The White Sox would be 4-8 in their past dozen games if minus 1 1/2 runs. The pitching matchup is Kohei Arihara versus Michael Kopech, who is taking the place of Luis Giolito, whose start has been pushed back to Tuesday because of a cut on his middle pitching finger. Arihara has impressed after coming to the Rangers from the Nippon Professional Baseball's Pacific League. He is 2-1 with a 2.21 ERA. He enters this matchup riding a 12 1/3-inning scoreless streak. Kopech is an exciting young strikeout pitcher with a high ceiling. But Kopech isn't expected to pitch deep into the game and he's far from being a polished big league pitcher yet. The White Sox won't have the use of their star closer, Liam Hendriks. He'll be rested after throwing a combined 46 pitches the last two days. | |||||||
04-24-21 | Bulls v. Heat -4.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
The Heat were humbled by the Timberwolves eight days ago. Miami responded to that bad loss by winning three in a row defeating the Nets and blowing out the Rockets and Spurs. But then last night the Heat's 3-game win streak ended in terrible form with a 118-103 road loss to the Hawks. It was one of the Heat's worst defensive games of the season especially considering Atlanta won without its two best players, Trae Young and Clint Capela. Miami bounced back after its loss to Minnesota and I see the Heat doing it again hosting the Bulls, who remain without their top player, Zach LaVine. I consider Erik Spolestra one of the top coaches in the NBA. I trust him to have the Heat fired-up after Friday night's stinker. The Bulls are 1-4 in their last five road games. During this span, Chicago lost by 16 points to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday, lost by 11 to the Grizzlies, fell to the Timberwolves by four and lost to the Hawks by 12. | |||||||
04-24-21 | Stars -1.5 v. Red Wings | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Despite multiple injuries, the Red Wings came out of nowhere to surprise the hot Stars, 7-3, at home this past Thursday. Dallas is much the better team and won't get ambushed again. Detroit is 6-16 following a victory. All but one of the Stars' last six victories have been by more than one goal. Until Thursday's shocking four-goal loss to the Red Wings, the Stars had given up just 12 goals during their previous eight games. | |||||||
04-24-21 | Royals v. Tigers +101 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Helped by playing 13 of their first 18 games at home, the Royals lead the AL Central with an 11-7 mark. Kansas City is due for regression. I'm not buying the Royals as a road favorite in a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Matthew Boyd. Singer is a youngster going through growing pains. He's had two of three rough starts this season with a 3.77 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. The Royals are minus their closer Greg Holland. Boyd is back to being the Tigers' ace. He's been one of the best pitchers in the AL with 2-1 record, 2.03 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. | |||||||
04-24-21 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 216.5 | 103-120 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
The Knicks rank No. 1 in the major defensive categories, including giving up the fewest points per game at 104.7. Lately, though, the Knicks have been involved in some high-scoring games. The result is five Overs in their last six games. I find these Overs misleading. During their last five games, the Knicks have played two overtimes, met the Pelicans twice and Hawks once. This has led to a lot of scoring inflation. Toronto is a much different opponent. The Raptors have allowed just 105.5 points during their last six games, playing offenses much stronger than the Knicks, who rank 26th in scoring. There were a combined 198 points scored when the Raptors last visited New York just 13 days ago. The Knicks won that game, 102-96. This is a day game with an early start time, which I view as a plus for the Under. The Raptors also will be without injured Chris Boucher. The value of Boucher is well-known to anyone who participates in a deep Rotisserie basketball league like I do. Boucher is shooting 51.9 percent from the floor, which is the highest by far of any Toronto player logging more than 23 minutes a game. | |||||||
04-24-21 | Devils v. Penguins OVER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
My usual lean to early start time games in the NHL is to go Under. Not in this case, though. These two teams have met twice during the past five days. The Penguins scored 12 goals during the first five periods. The Penguins went into defensive shell mode up 5-1 in Thursday's victory against the Devils. New Jersey is 1-12 in its last 13 games. The Devils have lost by more than one goal in eight of their last nine losses. It's clear the Penguins can score at will against them. New Jersey ranks 30th defensively. The Penguins are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL. The Devils are capable of helping this total go Over, too. They had scored 12 goals in their previous three games prior to losing 5-1 this past Thursday. Pittsburgh's defense is merely average. | |||||||
04-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers OVER 232.5 | 130-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies have been a tremendous Over road team. They've gone Over in 18 of their past 24 away matchups for 75 percent. If you discount the Grizzlies' last game, a 117-105 loss to the Clippers two days ago, Memphis is averaging 121.8 points in its past eight road games. A big takeaway from the Grizzlies' game against the Clippers was the season debut of 6-foot-11 Jaren Jackson Jr. He scored 15 points in fewer than 18 minutes. The Grizzlies now have an inside scoring threat to go with Ja Morant and a bunch of outside gunners. Jackson averaged 17.4 points last season. Portland ranks 25th in scoring defense and 26th in defensive field goal percentage. So the Grizzlies should get their points. The Trail Blazers are a top-10 scoring team and Memphis is a below average defensive club. The Trail Blazers finally are fully healthy. Damian Lillard had missed three games with a hamstring injury. He returned in Portland's last game, a 106-105 home loss to the Nuggets this past Wednesday. Lillard, though, was rusty shooting only 9-of-23 from the floor, including missing eight of 10 shots from 3-point range. I'm expecting a much better performance from Lillard. | |||||||
04-23-21 | Canadiens v. Flames -105 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
The Flames have had four days to rest, regenerate and think about a 4-2 loss to the cellar-dwelling Senators from this past Monday. Calgary is in must-win mode for this series. A loss to the Canadiens here, really seals the Flames' fate of not making the playoffs. I have to believe no-nonsense coach Darryl Sutter will have the Flames sky-high for this first of three straight crucial games against Montreal. The Flames have defeated the Canadiens in four of the last five meetings this season. Montreal nearly blew a 4-1 late lead against the Oilers this past Wednesday. The Canadiens held off the Oilers, 4-3. That was just Montreal's fourth road win in its past 14 away contests. Prior to scoring four goals versus Edmonton, the Canadiens were averaging a puny 1.5 goals in their last eight games. | |||||||
04-23-21 | Phillies v. Rockies -110 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
Like many teams, the Phillies are vulnerable when it comes to the bottom of their rotation. Philadelphia is in a tough spot today having to give Vince Velasquez a spot start at Colorado because normal starter Matt Moore is in COVID-19 protocol. Velasquez couldn't cut it as a starter before. He's been in long relief. I don't like his chances here against German Marquez. Marquez has been solid with a 3.57 ERA while pitching into the sixth inning in three of his four starts this season. He knows how to pitch effectively at Coors Field, too. The Rockies' bats are heating up. Colorado has scored 6 or more runs in three of its last four games. Velasquez has a 9.00 ERA. Velasquez has a career 4.91 ERA versus the Rockies in seven appearances. Philadelphia has lost in seven of its last eight games at Coors Field. The Phillies also are playing shorthanded. They are down several arms in their bullpen with Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado out and have a middle infield shortage with Jean Segura on the IL with a strained quad and Didi Gregorius questionable due to an elbow injury. | |||||||
04-23-21 | Predators -121 v. Blackhawks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
Maybe it was too easy. The Predators were on their way to beating the Blackhawks for the seventh consecutive time this past Wednesday leading, 4-1, with 10:03 left. The Blackhawks ended up pulling the game out, 5-4, in overtime. Nashville has outscored Chicago, 23-13, in its seven meetings this season. The Predators are 13-3 the last 16 times they've been favored. So I see them bouncing back and beating Chicago. Certainly the Predators won't be overconfident again. Chicago's rookie goalie, Kevin Lankinen, probably has hit the wall. He's had a tough month. Malcolm Subban was in net against the Predators and stopped 36 of 40 shots. No matter who's in net for Chicago, I like the Predators' defense better. | |||||||
04-23-21 | Flyers v. Rangers OVER 6 | 1-4 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
The Flyers nipped the Rangers, 3-2, on Thursday. I don't know how that total stayed Under 6. There were a combined 66 shots on goal - 33 by each team. Flyers goalie Brian Elliott, who nobody will confuse with Bernie Parent, made two point-blank saves. The Flyers had six power play opportunities. So I am going to get involved with today's rematch taking the Over. The Flyers should keep their intensity. They haven't forgotten about the humiliating 9-0 loss the Rangers pinned on them last month. New York dressed five defensemen 23 or younger in last night's game. The Rangers have surrendered at least 3 goals in each of their past four games. I do expect the Rangers to score at least 3 goals against a Philadelphia defense that is the league's worst giving up 3.5 goals per game. | |||||||
04-22-21 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 225.5 | 117-124 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
The 76ers gave it a good try, but they fell to the Suns, 116-113, on Wednesday. Philadelphia was minus Ben Simmons, Seth Curry and Tobias Harris. Those probably are the 76ers' second, third and fourth-most valuable offensive players. Simmons isn't expected to play. Curry and Harris are questionable. Superstar Joel Embiid even might sit, or have his minutes reduced since this is the second consecutive game for Philadelphia. These absences have opened up more playing time for Matisse Thybulle, an excellent defender and a plus for the Under. The Bucks rank fifth in defensive field goal percentage defense. Not only are the 76ers playing without rest, but this will be their third game in four days. The Under has cashed the past five times the 76ers have played on zero rest so expect a slow pace from Philadelphia. The Bucks will have their defensive intensity having lost two in a row with the latest being a 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns this past Monday. That game was Under the total at the end of regulation. The 76ers rank seven in scoring defense and are No. 4 in defensive field goal percentage. There were only a combined 186 points scoring in regulation during the first meeting between the two clubs on March 17. | |||||||
04-22-21 | Hurricanes v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
I trust these two top-11 offenses to each produce at least 3 goals. The Hurricanes have scored 3 or more goals in six of their last eight games. The Panthers have scored 14 goals in their last three games. The Panthers remain without injured star defenseman Aaron Ekblad. The Over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 meetings between the two teams in Florida. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,160 |
Dan Kaiser | $1,039 |
Tom Macrina | $650 |
Ray Monohan | $618 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Jesse Schule | $418 |
Big Al McMordie | $350 |
Marc Lawrence | $300 |
Mike Lundin | $293 |
Joseph D'Amico | $268 |