Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-21-21 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
It was an emotional game for the Sharks when they met the Golden Knights two days ago as it marked Patrick Marleau setting the record for most games played in NHL history. The Sharks gave it a great effort, but fell, 3-2, in a shootout. The Golden Knights came back from a 2-0 deficit. I don't see the Sharks being so up for this game. San Jose has lost six in a row. Before Monday's game, the Sharks had lost by multiple goals in eight of their past nine losses. Las Vegas had won four in a row by more than one goal before Monday's game. The Golden Knights were very classy following Monday's game in congratulating the Sharks and Marleau. Make no mistake, though, the Golden Knights hate the Sharks. This is a bitter rivalry. I don't see the Golden Knights coming out flat again. Las Vegas has won all six of the meetings between the two teams this season. | |||||||
04-20-21 | Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Canucks | 3-6 | Loss | -114 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
It was probably the biggest upset of the season. The Canucks stunned the Maple Leafs, 3-2 in overtime, two days ago. Vancouver hadn't played since March 24. Braden Holtby turned in his finest Vancouver performance stopping 37 shots. Holtby was filling in for regular goalie Thatcher Demko, one of 22 Vancouver players to test positive for COVID-19. Holtby has a save percentage of less than 90 percent and his GAA is 3.44. He's past his prime. The Maple Leafs are several tiers above the Canucks. I expect them to get their revenge in a big way here. Tuesday Free Play Penguins at Devils Over 6 minus $1.05 These two teams just met on April 9 and April 11 in Pittsburgh. The Penguins won those games, 6-4 and 5-2. So what's changed? Nothing. The youthful, mistake-prone Devils still are in full rebuild mode and the Penguins still have a well above average offense ranking sixth in goals. Pittsburgh has scored 3 or more goals in 10 of its last 13 games. The Penguins shouldn't encounter problems denting the net again versus the Devils, who rank 28th defensively and have the worst penalty kill in the league. New Jersey has surrendered a minimum of 3 goals in each of its last nine games. The Devils aren't quitting, though. They came from three goals down to tie the Rangers during their last game this past Sunday before losing, 5-3. The Penguins haven't been sharp defensively. They've given up seven power-play goals during their last eight games and are off a 4-2 loss to the lowly Sabres this past Sunday. | |||||||
04-20-21 | Blue Jays +105 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Eduardo Rodriguez has been a nice early story for the Red Sox going 2-0 after having missed all of last season due to health issues. Rodriguez's starts have come against the Orioles and Twins. Now he faces a Blue Jays team that has a number of exciting young offensive stars. This is Rodriquez's first home start in two years. I'm not so much going against Rodriguez as I'm taking Hyun Jin Ryu at an underdog price. It's rare when Ryu is an underdog and this shouldn't be one of those times. Since 2018, Ryu has become an upper level pitcher with ERA's of 1.97, 2.32 and 2.69 last season. He's off to a great start this year with a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in three starts. He has 19 strikeouts in 19 innings. Ryu trumps Rodriguez and the Blue Jays have enough quality hitters to warrant trust. | |||||||
04-20-21 | Giants v. Phillies -151 | 10-7 | Loss | -151 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
Zach Wheeler is a quality pitcher. Logan Webb is not. So I have no qualms about laying this price with the home Phillies, who have won seven of their 10 games in Philadelphia this season. Webb has a career 5.30 ERA and 1.55 ratio. There was a glimpse of hope for him when he pitched well during spring training. But once the real season started Webb reverted back to form. He has a 4.76 ERA and 1.76 ratio. The Giants had pulled him out of their starting rotation until Johnny Cueto was put on IL. Wheeler dominated the Braves in his opening start holding them scoreless for seven innings while giving up just one hit with a 10-to-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He wasn't as sharp in his next two starts against the Braves again and the Mets, but he wasn't terrible giving up three earned runs on each occasion. Now Wheeler steps down in class. The Giants rank 29th in runs and batting average. | |||||||
04-19-21 | Brewers v. Padres OVER 6.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Brandon Woodruff is an excellent pitcher. Joe Musgrove has been a star in the early part of this season. But this isn't a pitching matchup of Clayton Kershaw versus Yu Darvish. So a total of less than 7 is not justified especially with the Padres nearing full strength with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Tommy Pham back in the lineup. Christian Yelich is out. Yet if you discount a 6-1 loss to the Pirates, the Brewers have scored 19 runs in their last three games. Woodruff is nearing ace level. I'm not nearly that sold on Musgrove, though. Right now I consider him a middle-of-the-rotation type starter although I certainly acknowledge his fast start and getting to play his home games at Petco Park. I just believe this total is too low. Neither starter has an impressive history. Woodruff has a 4.50 ERA career-wise versus the Padres in three appearances, while Musgrove is 0-2 with a 6.14 ERA in five starts against the Brewers. | |||||||
04-19-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 235 | Top | 128-127 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Both teams have something to prove each coming off bad losses. The Suns were blown out at home by the Spurs, 111-85, while the Bucks fell to the Grizzlies, 128-115, at home. Both of these losses occurred this past Saturday so the teams may have gotten caught peeking ahead to this marquee matchup. These are two of the best teams in the NBA. So I'm expecting an intense, playoff-type defensive effort. Yes, there are great scorers on the court. But each team is excellent defensively, too, with the Suns ranking fourth in scoring defense and fifth in 3-point defense, while the Bucks ranking fifth in defensive field goal percentage. This is the Suns' first road game in 11 days. Discounting their away contest against the hapless Rockets, the Suns have averaged just 99 points during their last three road games. Giannis Antetokounmpo will be playing for the third time since being out six games with a knee injury. The Bucks aren't rushing him. He played fewer than 30 minutes against the Grizzlies, which is down from his usual 34-minutes of court time. The Under has cashed five of the last six times the teams have met in Milwaukee. | |||||||
04-19-21 | Cavs -2.5 v. Pistons | 105-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Scared about asking the Cavaliers to win on the road? Don't be. Cleveland has won and covered three of its last four road contests. The Cavaliers still have playoff hopes, while the Pistons are in full rebuild. The Cavaliers have covered the last five in this series, including winning both games against the Pistons this season. Detroit lost, 121-100, to the Wizards two days ago. The Pistons permitted the Wizards, whose guards usually do most of their damage, to score 74 points in the paint. | |||||||
04-18-21 | Rockets v. Magic OVER 218.5 | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Orlando is 1-7 in its last eight games. Houston is 1-10 in its last 11. Something has to give when these two lightweights meet today. Yeah that something is defense. The Rockets have allowed 125 or more points in each of their last five games. They stopped playing defense a long time ago. The Magic's defense has tumbled way down, too. Orlando is giving up an average of 120.1 points in its last eight games. A combination of getting gutted at the trade deadline and having injuries to their best defenders has lowered the Magic's once semi-respectable defense. Houston won't have John Wall. He's sitting out. I'm fine with that because the Rockets still have Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood, Jae'Sean Tate and underrated Kelly Olynyk. Wall hasn't had a stellar season either. Orlando will be minus point guard Michael Carter-Williams. So that means big minutes for Cole Anthony, who doesn't have Carter-Williams' defensive mind-set. The Magic have eight players 23 or younger. This is going to be a fun up-and-down game for them. | |||||||
04-18-21 | Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Canucks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Toronto is one of the best teams in hockey. The Maple Leafs are in rare stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row, including an embarrassing 5-2 home loss to the Jets in their last game this past Thursday. The Maple Leafs are in a great scheduling spot here. They draw Vancouver, which hasn't played since March 24 because of an outbreak of COVID-19 that affected 22 of its players. Not only have the Canucks not played since then, but they've only been able to practice once during this long idle period. They still could be down as many as seven players. The Canucks certainly could use more time to get ready, but the league is anxious for them to resume their season. The Canucks are not up to par physically or mentally. I can't see them hanging close to the Maple Leafs regardless if Austin Matthews, the NHL's top goal scorer, plays or not after sitting out Thursday with a hand injury. Toronto has won five of the last six times it has been a road favorite. They are in a great spot to add to that record. | |||||||
04-18-21 | Penguins v. Sabres OVER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
The Penguins are the No. 4 scoring team in the NHL. They have scored at least three goals in 10 of their past 12 games. The Penguins fired 38 shots on third-string Buffalo goalie Dustin Tokarski and came away with a 3-2 victory on Saturday. Now the Penguins are likely to draw Buffalo's fourth-string goalie, Michael Houser, as both Linus Ullmark and Carter Hutton are injured. The Sabres have picked up their offense averaging 3.4 goals during their last 10 games. They played hard yesterday firing 28 shots on Penguins goalie Tristan Jarry. Now the Penguins likely will turn to backup goalie, Casey DeSmith, for this rematch. | |||||||
04-18-21 | Indians v. Reds UNDER 7.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -122 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Shane Bieber showed why he captured Cy Young Award honors last season throwing a 3-hitter for nine innings in a 2-0 victory against the White Sox during his last start this past Tuesday. I don't see the Reds doing much against Bieber. The Indians rank 26th in runs and 29th in batting. So Reds southpaw Wade Miley is facing a way below average offense as he looks to continue his sharp start having allowed only four hits and no runs during his first two starts spanning 11 innings. Cleveland is averaging only 2.3 runs during its last six games. | |||||||
04-18-21 | Indians -151 v. Reds | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Shane Bieber. Any other questions why I like the Indians? If Jacob deGrom isn't the best pitcher in baseball, Bieber could be. The Indians are turning to Bieber to prevent getting swept by the Reds. Bieber has a 2.11 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. The Reds are due for serious offensive regression ranking first in the majors in runs and homers. Their offense is good, but not nearly this good. Wade Miley is set to oppose Bieber. He's also due for regression - heavy regression having thrown 11 scoreless innings to begin the season. Miley has never opened with three victories in a row during his 10 years in the majors. He has a 4.60 ERA in seven career starts against the Indians, with the last one being in 2019. I don't like the Indians' offense. But they should be able to cobble together a few runs against Miley, which is all Bieber and a strong bullpen backend would need. | |||||||
04-17-21 | Spurs v. Suns OVER 227 | 111-85 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
When it comes to NBA superstars, Devin Booker's name often gets lost. But sparked by Booker, who averages 25.7 points a game, the Suns are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NBA. They also rank No. 2 in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. San Antonio is a below average defensive team that has given up at least 117 points in six of its last nine games. Phoenix has scored at least 117 points in eight of its last 10 games. The Over has cashed in eight of the Suns' last 10 games. The Spurs have produced 115 or more points in eight of their past 12 games so they should contribute their fair share in getting this total to go Over. | |||||||
04-17-21 | Astros -130 v. Mariners | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
Minus starters Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and DH Yordan Alvarez, the Astros are at a bargain price against the Mariners because of those absences in a pitching matchup of Zack Greinke versus Chris Flexen. Greinke isn't the dominant force of years past, but he's a solid "B" tier pitcher. I consider Flexen to be an "F" tier pitcher. He gave up five earned runs in five innings against the Twins during his last start this past Sunday. Flexen sat out last season. He had a 6.59 ERA with the Mets in 2019 and a 12.79 ERA in limited innings with the Mets in 2018. The Astros rank in the top-five in numerous key offensive categories. They have the depth to overcome the loss of Altuve, Bregman and Alvarez especially facing such a weak starter and a bad Mariners bullpen that carries a high fatigue rating. This is Seattle's fifth game in four days. The Mariners just got into Seattle on Friday after sweeping a doubleheader from the Orioles on Thursday and then nipped the Astros in a come-from-behind victory on Friday. The Astros were idle this past Thursday so their bullpen is relatively fresh. Despite Friday's defeat, the Astros still have beaten the Mariners in 40 of the past 55 games. | |||||||
04-17-21 | Cavs v. Bulls -121 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Zach LaVine is out and the Bulls are on a five-game losing streak. So why back them? Two words: Cleveland Cavaliers. It's not too much to ask the Bulls to simply beat the hapless Cavaliers at home. This is the Bulls' opportunity to stop the bleeding while fighting for the 10th and final place in the play-in tournament. Chicago is tied with Toronto for that spot. LaVine is the Bulls' top scorer, but Chicago still holds an inside edge thanks to Nikola Vucevic. The Cavaliers rank last in scoring and second-to-last in offensive efficiency. Cleveland has failed to cover in 15 of its last 22 road contests. The Cavaliers' average road loss is by nearly double-digits. | |||||||
04-17-21 | Blue Jackets +163 v. Stars | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm not going out on a limb to say there aren't going to be many goals scored here with the total at 5. This is last stand time for the Blue Jackets if they want to maintain any playoff hope. Columbus isn't going to lack incentive following a 4-1 loss to the Stars from two days ago. The Blue Jackets had been competitive in their previous four games splitting two with the Lightning and losing two to the Blackhawks by one goal each. Columbus grabbed an early lead against Dallas, but couldn't hold it. The Stars have a below offense. This huge underdog price puts me on the Blue Jackets in what shapes up as a one-goal type of dogfight game. | |||||||
04-17-21 | Senators +1.5 v. Canadiens | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm not sold on the Canadiens to win this game especially by multiple goals. Montreal has won only once by more than one goal during its last eight games. The Canadiens are missing one of their key offensive players with Brandan Gallagher out. The Senators usually keep games close. They would be 11-3 in their last 14 games if given 1 1/2 goals. | |||||||
04-17-21 | Rays -104 v. Yankees | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Unless they're playing the Orioles, the Yankees just aren't that good. Unfortunately for the Yankees they're not going against the Orioles today but the Rays. Tampa Bay has beaten New York in 13 of its last 16 regular-season games, including 8-2 on Friday. I expect the Rays' dominance in this series to continue today since they are pitching Tyler Glasnow. He's in the argument for best pitcher in the American League with a 0.46 ERA. He has a lifetime 1.54 ERA at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees are not playing well, losers of of six of their last eight games. They've allowed 20 runs in their last three games and haven't scored more than four runs during their last four games. New York is starting Jordan Montgomery. The Rays just saw him six days ago and got to him for four runs in five innings. Montgomery has a 5.54 ERA lifetime against Tampa Bay in seven starts. | |||||||
04-17-21 | Capitals -133 v. Flyers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
The Capitals are 18-4 the last 22 times they've been favored. They should bring their "A" level intensity to this matchup following a 5-2 upset loss to the Sabres this past Thursday, while the Flyers stunned the Penguins, 2-1, in a shootout this past Thursday. The Flyers haven't won two in a row during their past nine games. Washington has defeated Philadelphia in four of five meetings this season. The Capitals are the No. 2 scoring team in the league while the Flyers surrender the most goals per game in the NHL. | |||||||
04-16-21 | Astros -109 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
Normally the Astros would be priced much higher against the Mariners and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. But the Astros have three starters on the injured list - Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and DH Yordan Alvarez. I still like Houston, though, to beat Seattle and the price is right to get involved. The Astros have a lot of depth to offset three starters being sidelined. They rank in the top-four in the major offensive categories. Kikuchi is pitching better so far this season than in his two previous seasons, but he has a terrible history versus Houston with a 6.46 ERA in 23 2/3 innings spanning five career starts. The Astros have won 69 percent of their past 75 road games against a lefty starter. The situation also shapes up nicely for the Astros. The Mariners had to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast after sweeping a road doubleheader from the Orioles on Thursday. Seattle has played four games during the last three days. Unlike the Mariners, the Astros will have a fresh bullpen in support of starter Jose Urquidy. Houston was idle on Thursday. The Astros are 42-11 the last 53 times following an off day. Houston also has dominated the Mariners winning 40 of the past 54 games. | |||||||
04-16-21 | Tigers v. A's -1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 111 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
The A's took care of the Tigers, 8-4, on Thursday and I see them beating Detroit by multiple runs again today. The Tigers are 1-8 in their last nine games at Oakland Coliseum. Oakland is riding a five-game win streak. The A's are swinging hot bats averaging 7.4 runs in their last five games. Oakland has a huge pitching edge in this matchup with Jose Urena facing Frankie Montas. Urena has an 8.22 ERA in starts against the Indians and Twins with a 2.09 WHIP. Detroit has the worst bullpen in the majors with a 6.65 ERA. Montas displayed signs of reverting back to his excellent form of two seasons ago during his last start when he held the Astros to one earned run in six innings. The Tigers are below average offensively ranking 21st in runs and batting average. | |||||||
04-16-21 | Magic v. Raptors -130 | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
The expression fat and happy doesn't usually apply to the Orlando Magic. But in this rare case it does. The Magic halted a six-game losing streak by beating the Bulls and former teammate, Nikola Vucevic, 115-106, this past Wednesday. I don't see the rebuilding Magic bringing that kind of intensity to this matchup against the desperate Raptors, who need to make a move now. Toronto showed it still can be a force defeating the Spurs, 117-112, two days ago despite missing Kyle Lowery and Fred VanVleet. Both Lowery and VanVleet are expected to play for Toronto today. The Magic couldn't stop VanVleet when the teams last met in Orlando on Feb. 2. VanVleet scored 54 points in a 123-108 Toronto victory. The Raptors also defeated the Magic, 115-102, on Jan. 31 at home. The Raptors should have some added insight into the Magic having acquired former Orlando center Khem Birch eight days ago. | |||||||
04-16-21 | Pacers v. Jazz UNDER 235 | 111-119 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a weird Friday matinee game, which I consider a plus for the Under. The total is set high because the Pacers and Jazz have been piling up a lot of points against bad defenses. So I believe their current scoring form is skewed. The Pacers' last six games have occurred against five below average defenses. Now they go against the Jazz on the road. Utah gives up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA and ranks No. 2 in the league in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Indiana ranks 22nd in scoring defense. Yet this will be the Jazz's toughest defensive foe in their last five games. Utah's previous four games were against defenses ranked 24th, 26th, 29th and 30th. There were just 198 points scored when the two teams met earlier this season at Indiana on Feb. 7 with the Jazz winning, 103-95. It's a break for Indiana if Jordan Clarkson has to miss another game with an ankle injury. Clarkson is the NBA leader in points off the bench this season, but he shot just 34.5 percent from the floor in March. | |||||||
04-16-21 | Braves v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
Two mediocre pitchers. Wind not being a big factor. So why a total this low at Wrigley Field? It's not the Braves' fault. They are averaging six runs a game during their past seven games. Ronald Acuna is the hottest hitter in baseball batting .442 with seven homers and 14 RBI's. The problem is the Cubs. Despite a respectable lineup on paper, Chicago is last in the majors in runs and batting average. This isn't going to continue, though. The Cubs have too many good veteran hitters and Kris Bryant and Javier Baez already are showing signs of having bounce-back seasons. Baez has three homers. The Cubs ran into some tough Brewers pitching in their last series. Chicago was idle on Thursday. I see the Cubs coming back refreshed and in attack mode against Drew Smyly and a Braves bullpen that is proving to be overrated. Smyly has a 5.73 ERA in two starts. He's already permitted three homers in 11 innings and has a 61 percent hard-hit rate. The Braves should continue their high scoring facing Zach Davies. who in two starts has an 11.05 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. The wind will be blowing in, but at less than 10 mph. | |||||||
04-15-21 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
It's taken until April, but the Celtics finally have started to play good basketball winning six of their last seven games. Strong defense has keyed Boston's turnaround. The Celtics rank fifth in defensive efficiency during their last 10 games, eight of which have gone Under the total. Boston has held four of its last seven opponents to fewer than 103 points. The Lakers have really stressed defense knowing their scoring was going to take a major hit with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both sidelined. LA has slowed down its tempo since losing their superstars and that pace is even slower now with Andre Drummond in the lineup. Drummond has yet to find a comfort zone in LA's offense. He's scored only seven points during the past two games despite logging around 25 minutes a game. This is what Drummond was quoted as saying, "Offensively it's probably the worst I've played in my career, so I'm still trying to figure it out. But I'm not allowing it to take me out of my game. I know why I'm here, which is to help this team out defensively." The Lakers have surrendered an average of just 100.5 points during their last 10 games. That defense easily would rank first in the NBA if computed out for the entire season. Don't look for the Lakers to speed up their style either in this matchup. They just concluded a seven-game, 12-day road trip this past Tuesday night at Charlotte. So their jump-shooting legs could still be tired and they have to reacquaint themselves with the shooting rims at Staples Center. The pace was extremely slow when the Lakers nipped the Celtics, 96-95, in the first meeting this season. James and Davis combined for 48 points in that matchup at Boston. There should be playoff intensity reminiscence of this once great rivalry in this matchup. The Celtics have revenge. The Lakers will have fans in the stands - around 2,000 of them - for the first time this season. The Under has cashed in each of LA's last six home contests. | |||||||
04-15-21 | Tigers v. A's -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 125 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
A lot of teams have trouble playing the A's in Oakland. So it's no surprise Detroit is one such club. The Tigers are 1-7 in their last eight visits to Oakland. The Tigers are ripe for a letdown after sweeping a three-game series against the COVID-19-ravaged Astros. The pitching matchup is lefty Tarik Skubal, who has a 7.71 ERA this season after a pair of starts versus the Indians, against Sean Manaea, who is 2-1 with a 2.84 ERA in three career starts against the Tigers. The A's are 40-14 the past 54 games when facing a lefty starter. | |||||||
04-15-21 | Flyers v. Penguins OVER 6 | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker is making a mistake if he hangs anything less than 6 1/2 goals on a Flyers total when Philadelphia is playing a good offensive team. The Penguins are the fourth-highest scoring team in the NHL. Pittsburgh has scored 4 or more goals in nine of its last 10 games. The Over has cashed in each of Pittsburgh's past five games. The Flyers have allowed three or more goals in 20 of their last 24 games. The Over is 17-7 in those games. The Penguins, though, are giving up 4.6 goals in their last five games. So the Flyers, who have scored at least two goals in 10 of their last 12 games, should hold up their end in making this total go Over. Thursday Free Play Penguins minus $1.65 hosting Flyers I'm old enough to remember Bernie Parent and the Broad Street Bullies. So I can't say the Flyers never had great goaltending. They just haven't had it for the past 45 years. The Flyers are 2-6 in their last eight games, following a 5-3 loss to last-place Buffalo this past Sunday and a 6-1 blowout defeat to Washington this past Tuesday. The Flyers hoisted up the white flag at the trade deadline signaling they are in rebuild mode. I'm not expecting the Flyers to do much here in action for the fourth time in six days and meeting a hot Pittsburgh team that has won eight of its last 10, including the past three all by multiple goals. The host Penguins will be rested, too, having last played this past Sunday. The Penguins were active at the trade deadline acquiring two-time Stanley Cup champion veteran Jeff Carter to center and shore up their battered second line, which is without Evgeni Malkin and Freddy Gaudreau. Center probably is the versatile Carter's best position. He also adds to the Penguins' special teams units. Only Ottawa surrenders more goals per game than the Flyers, who give up nearly 3.6 goals a game. The Penguins are the No. 4 scoring team in the NHL. They have tallied 4 or more goals in nine of their past 10 games. Sometimes there can be value backing the favorite, even heavy chalk like this. This is such a case. | |||||||
04-14-21 | Ducks v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -118 | 17 h 36 m | Show | |
Even though the Ducks and Sharks are not big scoring teams, I'm surprised not to see a 6 on the total for this matchup. Anaheim ranks 26th defensively allowing 3.2 goals per game, while San Jose is 29th permitting 3.3 goals a game. The teams have met twice during the last eight days. The Ducks have scored a combined nine goals against the Sharks in these two games. Anaheim just beat the Sharks, 4-0, this past Monday. Note, though, the Sharks fired 46 shots on goal against rookie backup goalie Anthony Stolarz. No Anaheim goalie in franchise history recorded more stops in a shutout than Stolarz did in that game. Both teams are down defensemen. The Sharks won't have Marc-Edouard Vlasic, who is injured. This means more playing time for Radim Simek and Christian Jaros, both of whom played poorly against the Ducks this past Monday being on the ice for three of Anaheim's goals. The Ducks recently traded two of their top six defensemen with Ben Hutton and Jani Hakanpaa being dealt. Keep in mind, too, the Ducks remain without injured defenseman Hampus Lindholm. | |||||||
04-14-21 | Mavs -130 v. Grizzlies | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
Minus their rebounding and blocks leader, Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks still defeated the Grizzlies, 102-92, on Feb. 22. That was the first game following the week-long All-Star break. I don't see why a healthy Mavericks squad can't duplicate that victory. Dallas is 16-12 on the road. Memphis has a losing home record. The Mavericks have covered in five of their last six visits to Memphis. The Grizzlies are off an 11-point home win against the struggling Bulls. This is their third straight home game and sixth game in nine days. The Mavericks are in a bad mood following an embarrassing, 113-95, home loss to the 76ers from two days ago. Dallas is 9-2 ATS after not covering in its previous game. | |||||||
04-14-21 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Wild | 2-5 | Loss | -147 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
The Wild's schedule and mental frame have been thrown out of whack due to protests in the Minneapolis region following the police shooting of unarmed Daunte Wright. The Wild's Monday night home game against the Blues was postponed until May 12 and their game today against Arizona was moved up to the afternoon instead of being played in the evening like originally scheduled. All of this has to be distracting and disconcerting to the Minnesota players and families. It leaves open how much concentration and intensity the Wild will have in this matchup. The Minnesota Timberwolves played on Tuesday afternoon at home against the Nets after their original Monday night game against the Nets was postponed. The Timberwolves were blown out by 30 points. Unlike the Timberwolves, the Wild are heavy favorites in this game. Because of circumstances brought about by the tragic shooting, the Wild are more susceptible to being flat. I can't trust the Coyotes, losers of four in a row, to pull off the outright upset but I will lay high juice to back them at plus 1 1 2 goals on the puck line. The Coyotes are in stop-the-pain mode. Their last three losses have come to elite foes, two games against the Golden Knights and one to the Avalanche. | |||||||
04-14-21 | Coyotes v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Minnesota is an above average defensive club that is tough at home. The Coyotes know this first-hand. They visited the Wild for three games on March 12, 14 and 16. Arizona scored a grand total of one goal in those three games. Arizona, though, has been playing solid defense if you toss out giving up seven goals to the Golden Nuggets during a recent game. Discounting that performance, the Coyotes are giving up an average of 2.5 goals in their last six games. The Under has cashed each of the past four times the teams have met in Minnesota. Note there is a time change in this game. It's gone from a night start to a matinee because of the unrest in the Minneapolis area. That's a plus for the Under. | |||||||
04-13-21 | Celtics v. Blazers -110 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is the middle game of the Celtics' three-game road swing. Boston won its third consecutive game upsetting the Nuggets, 105-87, this past Sunday. The Celtics have been living on the edge as each of their victories during their win streak have been come-from-behind. The Celtics have a revenge game on tap against the Lakers on Thursday. LA nipped the Celtics, 96-95, in Boston on Jan. 30. Portland is going to be motivated for this contest while Boston could be flat because of the scheduling. The Celtics are 4-13-1 ATS following a win. They also are 11-16 on the road this season. The Trail Blazers are off a listless, 107-98, home loss to the Heat this past Sunday. Blazers coach Terry Stotts was not happy with how his team played in that loss. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Trail Blazers. Portland is just 2-4 in its last six games. Note, though, the Trail Blazers' losses during this span have come to the Heat, Jazz, Clippers and Bucks. The Celtics are not in the class of the Jazz, Clippers and Bucks. | |||||||
04-13-21 | Panthers -108 v. Stars | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show | |
The Panthers have had two full days to stew about a poorly-played 4-1 road loss to the Stars. Now it's rematch time and I expect Florida to be ready. Florida is the better team and has proven road-worthy going 12-8-1. The Panthers have won in eight of their last 11 visits to Dallas. Dallas is not a good home club. The Stars are 4-13 in their last 17 home games. This marks their fourth game in six days so they carry a high fatigue rating, too. Prior to this past Saturday's loss to the Stars, the Panthers had swept two games at Dallas on March 27-28 winning, 4-3 and 4-1. The Panthers also took two of three from the Stars at home in late February. Chris Driedger will be in net for Florida. He's 2-1 with a 1.34 goals against average in three career matchups versus Dallas. | |||||||
04-13-21 | Rangers v. Devils OVER 5.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
The Rangers have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. In this case, the Devils are not a very worthy opponent. New Jersey is giving up an average of 4.4 goals in its last seven games. The Devils have surrendered 3 or more goals in nine of their past 11 games. The Rangers are the No. 7 scoring team in the NHL. New Jersey is last in killing off penalties. The Devils have been scoring lately, averaging 3.8 goals in their last five games. So I envision a sloppy game with plenty of defensive mistakes leading to each team contributing at least three goals. Historically, these two teams play high scoring games against each other. There have been only five Unders during the past 26 games in the series. | |||||||
04-13-21 | Flyers v. Capitals OVER 6 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
It's difficult not to envision an Over when the total is less than 6 1/2 on a Flyers game and their opponent is the Capitals. The Flyers have allowed 3 or more goals in 19 of their last 23 games. The Over is 16-7 in those games. The Capitals just scored eight goals in its last game two days ago against the Bruins. Philadelphia has scored a minimum of two goals a game in 10 of its past 11 contests. The Capitals have gone Over in 42 of their last 61 home games for 69 percent. | |||||||
04-13-21 | Nets v. Wolves UNDER 233.5 | 127-97 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Yes I'm aware that I'm trying to make a pair of bottom-six defenses work by going Under. But the high total offsets that. So in studying this matchup and seeing Brooklyn's lengthy injury report, I find Under to be the way to go. The teams met just 16 days ago and the Nets won, 112-107, for a combined 219 points. Not surprisingly, the stars of that game were James Harden and Kyrie Irving. They combined for 65 points on 22 of 47 shooting from the floor while knocking down 15 of 16 free throws. Neither Harden nor Irving is going to play today. Also out for the Nets are LaMarcus Aldridge and Tyler Johnson. Kevin Durant is in the lineup. However, this is only his third game back from a long injury layoff and he's been on a minutes restriction since returning. The Nets are sure to be stressing defense after getting torched in embarrassing fashion, 126-101, by the shorthanded Lakers this past Saturday. Minnesota is defensively-challenged. But next to Durant, the player the Timberwolves most have to worry about is guard Joe Harris. They should be able to handle that. So the Timberwolves' defensive task has been made much easier with the Nets down Harden, Irving and Aldridge. There will be no fans in the stands and the game is being played in the afternoon. I regard this as more of a plus for the Under. | |||||||
04-12-21 | Rangers v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
I like Tyler Glasnow. We all like Tyler Glasnow. Now here's a chance to back him at home at a low price via the run line in what should be an easy victory for Tampa Bay. Glasnow is in the argument for third-best pitcher in the American League behind Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber. He should dominate a weak-hitting Rangers club that has scored six runs in their last four games. Glasnow has given up one run in 12 innings that season with 15 strikeouts. The rebuilding Rangers are going with prospect Dane Dunning. He pitched well in his Rangers debut this past Tuesday holding Toronto to one run in five innings. Now, though, opponents have film and a more detailed scouting report on the right-handed Dunning. Tampa Bay is 42-11 in its last 53 home games when facing a righty starter. The Rangers have played their last six games at home where they were the only team in the majors allowing 100 percent fan capacity. Now the Rangers go to a tough and unusual venue, Tropicana Park. Dunning isn't the only young player on the Rangers. So I can easily envision the lowly Rangers struggling in this foreign setting against a much superior opponent. Each of the Rays' last three victories have been by more than one run. | |||||||
04-11-21 | Pistons +12.5 v. Clippers | Top | 124-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I know it doesn't say much for the Pistons when Jerami Grant is the team's best player and he may not even play after missing the past two games due to a sore knee. But the Pistons aren't as bad as perceived. They are 4-4 in their last eight games. Detroit 13-5 ATS the past 18 times when taking more than 6 points. This does mark Detroit's fifth and final road game of its current away swing. The Pistons, though, have a lot of young players looking to make their mark. They got their rest last night in a poorly played, 118-103, loss to the Trail Blazers. I believe the Pistons will show more energy and effort in this game. Detroit had shot better than 50 percent from the floor in their previous three games before Portland. The Clippers are fat and happy posting a 6-2 mark during their current homestand. It would be hard to blame the Clippers if they took the Pistons too lightly here. LA is still tinkering with its rotation. Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley are both out. Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins are trying to get their footing. Paul George is dealing with a bruised foot. Kawhi Leonard always is a candidate for rest against a sub .500 opponent. | |||||||
04-11-21 | Rangers v. Islanders -118 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
The Islanders don't often lose at home. But they are coming off a bad 4-1 defeat to the Rangers at Nassau Coliseum this past Friday. That halted a five-game home win streak for the Islanders. The Islanders, though, had been playing with fire narrowly winning their previous home game, 3-2, against the Flyers in a shootout. The Islanders have won 23 of their last 31 home contests. They are 17-2-2 at Nassau Coliseum this season, tied with the Avalanche for most home victories. Barry Trotz is one of the top coaches in the NHL. I don't envision the Islanders playing a third consecutive flat game at home. The Rangers were beaten by the lowly Sabres in their previous road game prior to defeating the Islanders. Depth is going to factor here since both teams are in action for the fourth time in six days. The Islanders are 7-0 the past seven times they were in a 4-in-6 situation. | |||||||
04-11-21 | Sabres +1.5 v. Flyers | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
Less than 24 hours after a achieving a highly-satisfying 3-2 win against the Bruins on Saturday, the Flyers have to play again. The opponent is the rebuilding Sabres. So I need to go to the puck to get an extra cushion at plus 1 1/2 goals, but this definitely is a bad spot for Philadelphia. The Flyers exerted a lot of energy holding off the Bruins, including going 4-for-4 in penalty kills. The Flyers carry a huge fatigue factor as this is their fifth game in seven days. The two teams met twice in Buffalo on March 29 and 31. The Sabres blew a 3-0 lead in a 4-3 overtime loss. Buffalo came back to whip the Flyers, 6-1, to end its 18-game losing streak. The Sabres have played better during their last eight games as some of their younger players develop more. If given 1 1/2 goals during this span, the Sabres would be 7-1. | |||||||
04-10-21 | Oilers v. Flames +101 | 0-5 | Win | 101 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
Last chance Calgary. The Flames desperately need this home victory if they realistically harbor any playoff hope. There's going to be hell to pay in Calgary if the Flames don't get it with some of the team's mainstays possibly being traded before Monday's trade deadline passes. Calgary certainly should be well prepared having last played on Monday. The Oilers, on the flip side, will be in action for the fourth time in six days. The Oilers were fortunate to get past the last-place Senators, 3-1, this past Thursday. Edmonton will be minus injured Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. He's fourth on the Oilers in goals and points. | |||||||
04-10-21 | Angels v. Blue Jays -120 | 1-15 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
Face it. Jose Quintana is a below average starter. Constant ERA's in the high 4.00's show that. The White Sox and Cubs have moved on from him and probably the Angels will, too. Quintana wasn't good in his Angels debut giving up four runs in 3 1/3 innings against the Astros this past Monday. I much prefer Steven Matz, who was quite the opposite of Quintana in his season debut. Matz allowed one run in 6 1/3 innings to the Rangers this past Monday, carrying over from his fine spring performances. The Angels took advantage of Toronto's lack of pitching depth to beat the Blue Jays, 7-1, on Friday. The Angels, though, are a weak road club, losers of 40 of the past 59 away contests. | |||||||
04-10-21 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
I don't understand why the oddsmaker can't see at least six goals being scored here. The Blackhawks give up the most shots on goal and have the worst penalty kill in the league. Opponents have racked up 3 or more goals in nine of the past 13 games versus the Blackhawks. The Blue Jackets just put up consecutive 4-goal games against Tampa Bay and Andrei Vasilevskiy, arguably the top goalie in hockey. The Blue Jackets rank 25th defensively giving up 3.1 goals per game. They also give up a lot of shots on goal and are well below average in killing off penalties. Columbus has permitted 3 or more goals in eight of its last 10 games. Both teams are frustrated and anxious to break out. The Blackhawks are off a 5-1 home loss to the Stars from two days ago, while the Blue Jackets are 1-4 in their last five games and off a 6-4 home loss to the Lightning from Thursday. | |||||||
04-10-21 | Jets v. Canadiens -128 | 5-0 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
I want the Canadiens going for me in this quick revenge spot. The Jets overcame not having Blake Wheeler to beat Montreal, 4-2, on the road two days ago. Wheeler remains out. Montreal had a terrible first period in that loss. I look for the Canadiens to be much sharper this time. I'm more than fine with Jake Allen in net. He's been more consistent this season than Carey Price, who isn't the super goalie of years past. | |||||||
04-10-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles +121 | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
It's deja vu all over again with this pitching matchup. Garrett Richards and lefty Bruce Zimmermann squared off six days ago in Boston and the Orioles smashed the Red Sox, 11-3. Now the same two pitchers go at it in Baltimore. The Red Sox don't appear any better than the Orioles this season and Richards hasn't shown anything. So give me the home 'dog. Richards couldn't last three innings against the Orioles this past Sunday giving up six runs on seven hits in two-plus innings. The same command issues that plagued him during spring training weren't resolved. Zimmermann, on the other hand, threw six solid innings against the Red Sox giving up three runs on four hits with one walk and six strikeouts. Boston is 8-19 in its last 27 games facing a lefty starter, including 1-2 this season. The Orioles hold a bullpen edge, too, with Cesar Valdez emerging as an early-season star with two saves and a win. Valdez has five strikeouts and one walk in 4 1/3 innings. | |||||||
04-09-21 | Rockets +12 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The Clippers enter this matchup against the lowly Rockets fat and happy. LA is riding a three-game win streak, is playing at home for the eighth consecutive game and coming off a highly-satisfying victory against the Suns last night. LA's last four games have been against the Suns, Trail Blazers, Lakers and Nuggets. Now the Clippers get a huge drop in class. The last time the Clippers hosted a below .500 foe was five games ago against the Magic on March 30. Orlando sprung a 103-96 upset in that game. The Rockets are more respectable since getting John Wall and Christian Wood back from injury. They proved that in their last game when they upset the Mavericks, 102-93, at home this past Wednesday. The Rockets displayed tough defense and renewed spirit. So they are capable. I wouldn't be shocked either if Kawhi Leonard sat out. He played 38 minutes against the Suns last night and even got poked in the eye, which he said bothered his vision during the game. If Leonard is indeed rested, this line will go down several points. | |||||||
04-09-21 | Coyotes v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
Below the radar, the Coyotes have picked up their offense. Arizona is averaging 4 goals per game during their last eight games. They have scored at least 3 goals in each of these past eight games. The Over has cashed in eight of Arizona's last 10 games. The Golden Knights enter this home matchup frustrated and ready to break loose. They fired 51 shots against the Blues in their last game two days ago on the road, yet still lost, 3-1. Las Vegas is averaging 3.4 goals in its last nine home contests. | |||||||
04-09-21 | Padres v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
There's no questioning San Diego's offensive abilities even with Fernando Tatis Jr. out, especially since the Padres get to use a DH for the first time this season. It's the Rangers, though, that have been a major offensive surprise so far. Texas has the sixth highest batting average in the majors and ranks 10th in runs scored. The Padres are pitching Joe Musgrove, who is prone to the long ball and more vulnerable being away from Petco Park. He has a lifetime 4.76 ERA against the Rangers in seven appearances, including five starts. San Diego has committed an MLB-high eight errors. San Diego should be able to do damage against Texas starter Kohei Arihara and a very weak Texas bullpen. Arihara made his big league debut against the Royals six days ago and was touched for three runs on six hits in five innings finishing with a 5.40 ERA. | |||||||
04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers -5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
If there were still any doubt about the Suns not being an elite team it was laid to rest on Wednesday night when Phoenix beat Utah, 117-113, in overtime. Only the Jazz have a better record in the NBA than the Suns. No team has been better against the spread than Phoenix, which has covered 66 percent of its games this season with a 33-17 ATS mark. The Suns have won seven in a row. Yet I'm going against the Suns today. Normally I'd either play on the Suns, or avoid them. They have been the wrong team to fade. Not this time, though. It's not who you play in the NBA when it comes to point spread covers during the regular season, but when you play them. This situation is just too good to ignore the Clippers. Not only are the Clippers an elite team themselves - certainly capable of winning the NBA championship - but they catch the Suns in a horrible spot. The Jazz-Suns Wednesday showdown lived up to the hype. Both teams laid it on the line like it was the seventh game of a playoff series. There was no holding back. The Suns wanted to prove to their fans and to a national TV audience that they indeed are for real. That point was proven, but the price didn't come cheap. Chris Paul, who turns 36 in less than a month, played a season-high 43 minutes against Utah. Devin Booker logged nearly 44 minutes. Deandre Ayton went more than 41 minutes. He hadn't played more than 40 minutes all season. The Suns also played a tight game this past Monday getting past Houston, 133-130, on the road. So they are playing for the third time in four days, all at different venues, and without rest. The Suns are not the deepest of teams. The Clippers are back to full strength with the exception of Serge Ibaka. LA strengthened its rotation by signing DeMarcus Cousins, who says he's in the best shape of his life. The Clippers were idle on Wednesday following an easy, 133-116, home win against the Trail Blazers this past Tuesday. This will be the second meeting between Phoenix and LA. The Clippers defeated the Suns, 112-107, at Phoenix on Jan. 3. Paul George led the way with a season-high 39 points. The Clippers led by 20 at halftime. There was a lot of trash talking in that game. The Clippers have covered eight of their last 10 home games. They are 8-1 ATS the last nine times hosting the Suns. The NBA schedule makers did the Suns no favor scheduling them for this matchup following a home game against the Jazz. The Clippers are going to be up for this game and they have the talent to blow out any opponent, Phoenix included. I can't see the Suns coming up with anything resembling an "A" level performance and effort after Wednesday's tremendous home victory, perhaps the best moment of the season for them. This one goes to the Clippers and I don't expect the score to be close. | |||||||
04-08-21 | Stars -113 v. Blackhawks | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
Sparked by strong goaltending from Kevin Lankinen, the Blackhawks held off the Stars, 4-2, this past Tuesday scoring an empty-net goal with seven seconds left to account for the final score. I don't see Chicago being so fortunate in the rematch. The Stars have the stronger defense and the Blackhawks are 1-6 following a victory. Dallas ranks 10th defensively permitting 2.4 goals per game. The Stars give up the fourth-fewest shots on goal. The Blackhawks, by comparison, rank 21st on defense yielding 3.1 goals a game and give up the most shots on goal. | |||||||
04-08-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
Sorry to inform the Orioles that this is not 2013. Matt Harvey isn't good. Harvey's ERA the past three seasons: 11.57 last season, 7.09 in 2019 and 7.00 in 2018. Yet the Orioles have Harvey in their rotation and he's starting today against the Red Sox, who scored 26 runs the past three days in sweeping the Rays. Boston already has gotten a look at Harvey. They faced him five days ago getting two runs and six hits off him in 4 2/3 innings.Eduardo Rodriguez takes the hill for Boston, which is why this total opened at less than double-digits. Rodriguez had a strong 2018 season, but he missed last year and has yet to pitch this season. He's backed by a horrendous bullpen. Baltimore's Camden Yards is one of the best hitting parks in the majors. Good weather, too, with temperatures in the 60's and the wind blowing out to left at 11 mph. | |||||||
04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | 113-117 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
New Orleans and Phoenix are a combined 73-26. Record-wise, they are the two best teams in the NBA. So this is a huge game and ESPN is on hand to televise the matchup. Donovan Mitchell and Devin Booker are outstanding scorers. But these teams know how to play defense. The Jazz rank No. 3 in defensive scoring holding foes to 107.2 points. They also rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They haven't given up more than 107 points in seven of their last nine games and not more than 114 points during any of their past 10 games. The Suns are the No. 5 defensive team in the NBA holding opponents to 107.7 points. They rank fourth in 3-point defense and have held opponents to 112 points or less in eight of their last 10 games. When the teams had their lone meeting this season back on New Year's Eve in Utah, there were a combined 201 points scored with the Suns winning, 106-95. This has all the makings of a playoff-caliber intensity type of matchup. | |||||||
04-07-21 | Avalanche v. Wild +170 | 3-8 | Win | 170 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
The Avalanche is a blistering 13-2 in their last 15 games. They are off a 5-4 road win against Minnesota this past Monday night. But I'm going to get involved with the Wild at this generous price because the Wild are a great home team and will be extremely motivated for this matchup. Minnesota had won 11 consecutive home contests before falling to the Avalanche. Among the Wild's home victories during this span were two against the Golden Knights and one against Colorado. The Wild outplayed the Avs in the first period and especially in the third period during Monday's contest. But they couldn't overcome a horrendous second period. This will be just Colorado's fourth away matchup during its last 16 games. So the majority of the Avs' hot 13-2 mark has occurred at home. Colorado is a far more mundane 8-6 in its last 14 road contests. The Avs are high-scoring, but Minnesota has the necessary defensive talent and schemes to frustrate them. | |||||||
04-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -109 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
Mad-Bum is turning into just Bum. OK, that is being too hard on Madison Bumgarner. He's not a bum, but he's certainly also not the pitcher he was during his prime with the Giants when he was throwing 94 mph. Bumgarner gets the start here at Coors Field, the best hitting park in the majors. The price is right to fade him especially with the Diamondbacks' bullpen in a state of flux with closer Joakim Soria out with a calf injury. Bumgarner went 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA last year, permitting an astonishing 66 baserunners in only 41 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks signed him to a huge contract hoping his fastball would return and his command would improve. So far that hasn't happened. His velocity still is down and he hasn't regained his command. That was evident again in Bumgarner's first start when he gave up six runs on seven hits, including two homers, in four innings against the Padres opening day. That game was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park, too. Colorado starter Antonio Senzatela didn't pitch well either in his first start this season. He was tagged for seven on nine hits in just 3 1/3 innings by the Dodgers, who could have the best offense in baseball. I have more confidence in Senzatela bouncing back than Bumgarner. Senzatela turned a corner last season going 5-3 with a 3.44 ERA. I like the Rockies' lineup better than the Diamondbacks, especially with Arizona missing injured shortstop Nick Ahmed and outfielder Kole Calhoun. | |||||||
04-07-21 | Pelicans +9 v. Nets | 111-139 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
It's easy to look at the Pelicans and see a string of key players hurt and a 26th-ranked defense. There's also a fatigue factor as New Orleans is playing without rest and for the fifth time in seven days. Meanwhile, the Nets are expected to finally get back Kevin Durant, who has missed the past 23 games. However, the combination of a large point spread, James Harden being out with a hamstring injury and the Nets being a horrible favorite put me on New Orleans. The Pelicans are short-handed in the backcourt with Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker out with injuries. Brandon Ingram is questionable. So he may not play either. But Zion Williamson, who has emerged as a high-percentage shooting, all-around monster player, is back from a thumb injury. Lonzo Ball is playing well. Eric Bledsoe is a capable guard and recently signed Isaiah Thomas is available. He played 25 minutes scoring 10 points against the Hawks on Tuesday night. Durant figures to be rusty. He probably won't log a lot of minutes. The Nets may even come into this matchup overconfident based on their opponent and finally getting Durant back while having Kyrie Irving. The oddsmaker seems to be in love with the Nets. The Nets haven't returned this love going 1-9 ATS the past 10 times they've been chalk. | |||||||
04-06-21 | Predators -150 v. Red Wings | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Nashville is playing its best hockey of the season winning nine of its last 11 games. This includes a 7-1 home win against the Red Wings from March 25. Little chance of Nashville taking the Red Wings lightly, though, after Detroit stunned defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay. The Red Wings beat the Lightning, 5-1, on the road this past Sunday taking advantage of Tampa Bay going with a third-string goalie. That stopped a Detroit 17-game road losing streak to the Lightning. The Red Wings still could be celebrating. This is Detroit's first home game since March 28. The Predators last played on Saturday. They have held their last seven opponents to 10 goals. Only once have they surrendered more than two goals in a game during this span. | |||||||
04-06-21 | Bulls v. Pacers +1 | Top | 113-97 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
The Pacers are off a 139-133 road victory against the Spurs this past Saturday. That's significant for several reasons. It halted a three-game Indiana losing streak and the Pacers accomplished that impressive feat minus Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon. Those are arguably Indiana's two best players. So it's not asking too much for the Pacers to just beat the Bulls at home even if Sabonis and Brodgon have to sit out again. Each is questionable. Indiana has had two full days to rest and game plan. The Bulls have dropped their last four road games, including a 120-104 loss to the Spurs on March 27. Indiana has covered six of the past seven in the series. | |||||||
04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | 86-70 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 19 m | Show | |
So Baylor and Gonzaga do get to meet after all after their December matchup had to be cancelled. They were the two best teams back then and they still are the two best teams in college basketball. Here's the difference though: Gonzaga can survive if it doesn't play an "A" game, or doesn't shoot well. Baylor can't. The Bulldogs had their brush with elimination, but they held off UCLA in overtime. The Bruins came in with their "A" game, but it wasn't quite enough against one of the best college teams of all-time. That's what the Bulldogs are. Baylor is very good, too. I just don't put them in Gonzaga's class. Each team has their stars. Gonzaga, however, has more weapons, can score better inside and is superior on the boards and at the free throw line as Baylor makes just 68.6 percent of its free throws. | |||||||
04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga UNDER 159.5 | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 31 h 18 m | Show | |
Yes, I'm on the planet. I know Baylor and Gonzaga have great offenses. That's why the total is set so high. I can find more reasons, though, to go Under rather that count on both teams to hold up their high offensive standards. Baylor's tremendous defense in the NCAA Tourney is getting overlooked. The Bears have held their five opponents to an average of 60 points. Gonzaga has an above average perimeter defense. UCLA hit a blistering 58 percent from the floor against the Bulldogs in scoring 81 points during regulation. That was highly unusual. I don't see it happening again. The Bulldogs held their previous four NCAA Tourney foes to an average of 64.2 points. This is a neutral court matchup with the game being played at spacious Lucas Oil Stadium, a converted football field with a difficult shooting background. | |||||||
04-05-21 | Flyers v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
The Bruins were averaging just 2.4 goals during their last five games until their matchup against the Penguins this past Saturday. There were 12 goals produced in that one with Boston winning, 7-5. Boston stars David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand were in top form contributing a combined five goals while playing on different lines. Now the Bruins host Philadelphia, the worst defensive team in the NHL allowing 3.4 goals per game. The Flyers have given up 3 or more goals in 16 of their last 18 games. The Over has cashed in 11 of their past 14 games. Boston has been missing starting goalie Tuukka Rask. The Bruins' backup goalies could be hitting a wall. Boston has surrendered 13 goals in its last three games. The Bruins also are down Brandon Carlo, one of their top defensemen. He's out with an upper-body injury. | |||||||
04-05-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9 | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 53 m | Show | |
Two young unproven pitchers throwing at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park with the wind blowing out to left and a single-digit total. Yep that's what we have in this matchup and it spells Over the total for me. Pittsburgh is going with JT Brubaker. He was 1-3 with a 5.53 ERA last season as a rookie. The Reds have started the season hot offensively scoring 27 runs, including six homers, in three games against the Cardinals and their respectable pitching staff. Cincinnati is pitching rookie Jose De Leon, who pitched six innings last season. De Leon gave up 12 runs on a combined 17 hits/walks during that short span. The weather forecast is for wind blowing out to left field at 9-10 mph. Monday Free Play Rays minus $1.17 at Red Sox It appears the 24-36 Red Sox of 2020 wasn't a mirage. Boston really is this bad. How else to explain opening the season by getting swept at home by the Orioles? These losses weren't especially close either. Baltimore outscored Boston, 18-5. Perhaps this is an overreaction to the Red Sox and maybe the Orioles are an improved team. Having Trey Mancini back certainly is a plus for Baltimore. But I do know this: The Red Sox aren't nearly in the class of Tampa Bay. So laying this short price with the Rays makes plenty of sense to me. The Rays didn't play Sunday. A rare day off on a Sunday and a strong plus for a team that relies heavily on a deep bullpen. Tampa Bay did lose, 12-7, to the Marlins two days ago after winning the first two games of that series. The Rays finished last season 18-5 after losing in their previous game. They also have enjoyed tremendous success at Fenway Park beating the Red Sox in 13 of their past 16 visits to Boston. The starting pitching matchup is Michael Wacha versus Nick Pivetta. I'm not fond of either pitcher. I'd prefer Wacha given a choice. But this is not a starting pitcher-driven handicap for me. I don't expect either Wacha or Pivetta to be around too long. It comes down to the Rays being the much superior team, the Red Sox already struggling and perhaps mentally affected and this being a low enough price to back the road favorite. | |||||||
04-04-21 | Grizzlies v. 76ers -3 | Top | 116-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
The 76ers are dominant at home, the point spread is lower than I anticipated and Joel Embiid is back. This is enough to put me on the 76ers. Philadelphia is 20-4 at home this season. The 76ers have covered 68 percent of their past 52 home games. Memphis is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times when on the road meeting a foe with a winning home record. The Grizzlies have failed to cover during their last four visits to Philadelphia. Embiid wasn't rusty after missing 10 games due to a bruised knee scoring 24 points against the Timberwolves on Saturday. | |||||||
04-04-21 | Indians -124 v. Tigers | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Cleveland's Aaron Civale is one of those below-the-radar pitchers that I am high on this season. I believe Civale will be one of the more improved pitchers this season. Civale hasn't had trouble with the Tigers in the past going 3-0 with a 2.36 ERA in four career starts with two of those wins occurring at Comerica Park. The Tigers are going with Tarik Skubal. He could be good in a couple of years, but right now Skubal is learning his craft. He was 1-4 with a 5.63 ERA as a rookie last season. | |||||||
04-04-21 | Braves -115 v. Phillies | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
After going against Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, the Braves step down in pitching class. The Braves draw Zach Eflin as they try to prevent the Phillies from achieving a three-game sweep. Eflin has yet to prove himself special. Braves starter Ian Anderson has. Anderson gave a glimpse into his high ceiling during his rookie season last year going 3-2 with a 1.95 ERA with 41 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings. The Phillies have never faced him. | |||||||
04-03-21 | Sharks v. Kings -112 | 3-2 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
The Sharks are going for their fourth win in a row. They have not won four consecutive games all season and I don't see that changing here. San Jose defeated the Kings, 3-0, on Friday night in a game that was closer than the final score. The Sharks are 1-6 the last seven times when playing on zero rest. Prior to blanking the Kings last night, San Jose was 0-4 in its past four road games. The revenge-minded Kings are likely to break out of their scoring slump with Devan Dubnyk expected to be in net for San Jose. Dubnyk is not in good form allowing 14 goals in his last four starts - all losses - for an 88.2 percent save percentage during this span. On the season, Dubnyk is 3-9-2 with a 3.18 GAA and .898 save percentage. | |||||||
04-03-21 | Giants -114 v. Mariners | 0-4 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
There wasn't a better pitching during spring training than San Francisco's Logan Webb, who went 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA in five starts. Webb's strikeout-to-walk ratio was 22-to-2. So I'll take a shot with Webb and the superior team against the lowly Mariners, who will be going with Chris Flexen, who was pitching in South Korea last season. Sure spring training statistics can't be trusted. But still I'd rather go with a hot spring training pitcher than Flexen, who has never proven himself in the majors and has a horrendous bullpen behind him. Already the Mariners' relief staff has given up five runs (four earned) during seven innings. | |||||||
04-03-21 | White Sox -119 v. Angels | 3-5 | Loss | -119 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
The White Sox are an emerging team with plenty of talent even minus highly-promising Eloy Jimenez. They are going with veteran Lance Lynn on the mound against Alex Cobb. Cobb has been one of the worst starters in the majors during the last three years going 7-22 with a 5.10 ERA in 41 starts. Those were with Baltimore. The Angels are hoping Cobb can emulate Dylan Bundy's success. Bundy, too, was with the Orioles before coming to the Angels and having much better results. I don't believe that's going to happen. Certainly not against the White Sox where Cobb's lifetime ERA is 13.89 in three starts versus Chicago. Lynn is much the better pitcher and he has a good history against the Angels. Lynn was 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA in three starts versus the Angels last season. I much prefer the White Sox's bullpen over the Angels' relievers, too. The Angels received just three innings from Andrew Heaney on Friday so their bullpen already is getting stretched out. | |||||||
04-03-21 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Padres | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
I like the Padres to make a run at the Dodgers in the NL West. But there are going to be spots where San Diego is overpriced. This is one of them in a pitching matchup of Caleb Smith versus Joe Musgrove. Smith showed potential with the Marlins and he had a 2.45 ERA and 1.00 WHIP for the Diamondbacks after being traded to them last season. Smith is 2-1 lifetime versus the Padres with a 2.01 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts. Musgrove went 1-5 in eight starts with the Pirates last season. His lifetime numbers are 29-38 with a 4.33 ERA, which includes 83 starts. He might get more victories pitching for the Padres, but I consider him a lower-end starter, who should not be in this price range. The Diamondbacks have some underrated power. If Ketel Marte returns to form, the Diamondbacks could surprise. Marte is off to a fast start going 6-for-10 with four extra base hits, including two homers. | |||||||
04-03-21 | Cavs +12 v. Heat | 101-115 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting the Heat to be up for this game, or to produce an "A" type of effort. Why bother, they're playing the Cavaliers. Based on this belief, I'll take Cleveland plus this many points. Miami hosted Cleveland just 2 1/2 weeks ago and won, 113-98. The Cavaliers have lost four in a row. The Heat are on a three-game win streak. This is the Heat's fourth game in six days. Miami is 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times as a home favorite. But are there other reasons to get involved with the Cavaliers besides perceived line value and the strong possibility of a Miami letdown? Yes, the Cavaliers have been blown out by the 76ers and Jazz in their last two games. But they have been tougher than you might think. Prior to those two defeats, the Cavaliers were highly competitive in five of their previous seven games - beating the Celtics, Raptors and Bulls while losing by six to the Spurs and by two to the hot Kings. The injury absences of Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Jr. is somewhat off-set by the return of Kevin Love and sparkplug Matthew Dellavedova. Love went 20 minutes against the 76ers. Cleveland only was outscord by two points during Love's time on the court. Love should see more minutes against Miami. Dellavedova made his season debut versus Philly and stabilized Cleveland's second unit. He's a hustling, team-oriented veteran popular with his teammates. Note that Miami has played nine games since defeating the Cavaliers by 15 points. The Heat haven't won by more than 10 points in any of those contests. | |||||||
04-03-21 | Flyers v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
There is only one way to play Flyers totals - and it's not Under that's for sure. Philadelphia has the worst defense in the NHL. The Flyers allowed an average of 4.4 goals during their 17 March games. They have surrendered at least 3 goals in 15 of their last 17 games. The Islanders are coming off an 8-4 victory against the Capitals this past Thursday. New York has scored 3 or more goals in 11 of its last 14 games, while yielding 15 goals in their last four games. | |||||||
04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 79 h 35 m | Show |
Before Baylor had to pause its season for three weeks due to COVID-19 back in early February, the Bears were right up there with Gonzaga as the best team in the country. I wouldn't put Baylor back in that super elite class where only Gonzaga resides. But I would the Bears at their own Tier 2 level, a class above Houston. I don't want to denigrate the Cougars. Baylor, however, checks all the boxes for me in this matchup. The Bears possess speed, size and shooting. They average 85.3 points. Houston hasn't broken the 67-point mark in each of its last three games and that's facing inferior competition compared to who Baylor has played. The Bears have won their four NCAA Tourney games by an average of 14.2 points, defeating superior foes than who Houston has beaten. The Cougars have had an easy path not playing a team ranked higher than a No. 10 seed. Their tourney victories were against Cleveland State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State. Baylor not only is high-scoring, but its defense has shutdown capabilities. The Bears could have the best backcourt trio in the nation with Jared Butler, MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell, who could be the top defensive player in the country. Houston is a tremendous defensive club. No team is more accurate from 3-point range, though, than the Bears, who make 42.9 percent from beyond the arc. So this negates Houston's inside defensive strength. | |||||||
04-03-21 | Penguins v. Bruins -113 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
Credit to the Penguins. They are playing very well despite missing two/thirds of their second line and starting goalie Tristan Jarry. But I don't see the Penguins getting a road sweep of the Bruins after beating Boston, 4-1, this past Thursday. Pittsburgh was 0-8-2 in its previous 10 visits to Boston before that Thursday victory. Boston coach Bruce Cassidy ripped his team after that loss. So I'm expecting a strong revenge effort from the home Bruins. | |||||||
04-02-21 | Giants +116 v. Mariners | Top | 6-3 | Win | 116 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
No way am I buying Yusei Kikuchi as a favorite. The left-handed Kikuchi has been one of the worst starting pitchers in the majors during his two-year stint compiling a 5.46 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP in 2019 and a 5.17 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP last season. San Francisco just faced a lefty starter on Thursday and scored five earned runs in six innings off Marco Gonzales, a much better pitcher than Kikuchi. Seattle has one of the worst bullpens in the majors, too. Giants starter Johnny Cueto isn't the star he was with the Reds, but he's still solid. I consider him the Giants' best starter. Cueto has a 2.41 lifetime ERA against Seattle in three starts. San Francisco's bullpen is better than it showed in its 8-7 extra inning loss to the Mariners on Thursday. The Mariners remain without perhaps their most talented player as outfielder Kyle Lewis has a knee injury. | |||||||
04-02-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans UNDER 224 | 126-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting the Hawks and Pelicans to play with a lot of energy in this one. The visiting Hawks are playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights. They are off a two overtime road win against the Spurs from Thursday. The Pelicans also played last night and had to go overtime, losing, 115-110, to the Magic at home. Not only are the Pelicans playing without rest, but this marks their fifth game in eight days. Neither team is likely to be at full strength either. The Hawks don't expect to have their second and third-leading scorers with John Collins sidelined with an ankle injury and De'Andre Hunter dealing with a sore knee that has kept him out of the past four games. Cam Reddish isn't back yet and Kevin Huerter has gone in the tank. There's also the possibility Trae Young sits because of a sore knee. That would be a huge bonus for the Under. The Pelicans fell to the Magic minus their three best offensive players - Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. New Orleans committed 24 turnovers minus Ball, its point guard. The Pelicans managed only 101 points in regulation against Orlando last night. I would be surprised if all three of these stars sat out again, but I do expect one or two of them to miss this game. The Hawks have been much improved defensively under the coaching of veteran Nate McMillan, who took over from the fired Lloyd Pierce. | |||||||
04-02-21 | Blues v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
No matter who the opposition is, the oddsmaker should be almost automatically setting at least a 6 total on Colorado games. The Avalanche have been the hottest scoring team in the NHL producing 53 goals in their last 10 games for an average of 5.3 goals a game. The Blues just gave up a combined seven goals to the low-scoring Ducks during their last two games, both home losses. Colorado is the No. 1 scoring team in the NHL. The Over has cashed in eight of Colorado's last nine games. The Blues rank a disappointing 17th in scoring. But they have a number of good scorers who are overdue to break loose. St. Louis has been underachieving. | |||||||
04-01-21 | Penguins v. Bruins -129 | 4-1 | Loss | -129 | 14 h 0 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh enters this matchup fat and happy having won four in a row - all at home. Now, though, the Penguins take to the road where they have lost six of the last seven times as an underdog. Oh, yes, Pittsburgh is playing in Boston. The Penguins are 2-14 (12 percent) during their last 16 visits to Boston. The Bruins have the firepower and defense to take advantage of the Penguins' many injuries. Out for Pittsburgh is second-line center Evgeni Malkin, second-line left winger Kasperi Kapanen and starting goalie Tristian Jarry, who isn't likely to play after missing Wednesday's practice after suffering an injury in Pittsburgh's Monday 2-1 victory against the Islanders. | |||||||
04-01-21 | Rangers -1.5 v. Sabres | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
There must have been plenty of Labatt Blue consumed in Buffalo last night after the Sabres ended their 18-game winless streak by crushing the Flyers, 6-1, at home. The Sabres still could be celebrating by the time this game starts. It's unfortunate for the Sabres they have to play right away following that long-awaited victory. It's also their third game in four days and sixth game in nine days. Buffalo is 3-14 in its last 17 home contests. The Rangers don't mind being party poopers. They can't afford a slip-up here. New York is 6-4 in its last 10 games with all of its victories during this span occurring by at least two goals. The Rangers have proven trustworthy lately in this role winning six of the last seven times as chalk. Probable Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin is 2-0 with a 1.96 GAA and .918 save percentage in two games against Buffalo this season. Sabres expected goalie Dustin Tokarski, on the other hand, has a 5.12 GAA and .854 save percentage in three career games versus the Rangers. | |||||||
04-01-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
Far superior team. Far superior starting pitcher and a stronger bullpen.The Padres check the boxes here. That's why they are such a strong favorite. I have to believe they are going to win this game by at least two runs so I'm going to lay them on the run line to avoid the heavy juice. The Diamondbacks appear to have made a foolish investment in Madison Bumgarner signing him to a five-year, $85 million contract. Bumgarner still is just 31, but he has a lot of wear-and-tear that showed itself last season when he went 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA in nine starts. Bumgarner doesn't have a good history at Petco Park either with a 5-9 career record and 4.38 ERA. How bad is Arizona's bullpen? Joakim Soria is the closer. So Bumgarner isn't going to get any relief help. The Padres posted their highest winning percentage last season going 37-23. They look even better this season. Yu Darvish is one reason for this. He finished No. 2 in the Cy Young Award balloting with an 8-3 record and 2.01 ERA in 12 starts in 2020. He has a 2.93 lifetime ERA versus the Diamondbacks in five starts with 53 strikeouts in 30 2/3 innings. | |||||||
03-31-21 | Bucks -8 v. Lakers | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
Minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers still are capable of dispatching dregs like the Magic and Cavaliers. But they can't hang in against a motivated elite opponent. The Bucks are one such foe. The Lakers draw an angry Bucks team with something to prove having lost three in a row with the latest defeat being a crushing 125-109 road loss to the Clippers two days ago. The Bucks haven't had to travel following that loss because this game is at Staples Center, too. Milwaukee also has revenge motivation for a 113-106 home loss to the Lakers back in January. James was the key in that game scoring 34 points. Davis had 18 points. The Lakers are hoping newly signed Andre Drummond can make a difference. Drummond hasn't played since Feb. 12. His minutes are going to be restricted here and he figures to be plenty rusty. | |||||||
03-31-21 | Knicks -3.5 v. Wolves | 101-102 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
Most teams find it difficult to get up for the Timberwolves. Can you blame them? Minnesota has the worst record in the NBA at 11-36. The Timberwolves have failed to cover 12 of the last 17 times they've been a 'dog, too. The Knicks are the exception. They will be up for this matchup - and it's because of Tom Thibodeau. The defensive guru has the Knicks ranking No. 1 defensively giving up 104.6 points a game. The Timberwolves fired Thibodeau as their coach and president in early January of 2019. The season before Thibodeau had led Minnesota to its first playoff berth in 17 years. New York is coming off a bad 98-88 loss to the Heat this past Tuesday. The Knicks are 9-1 ATS the last 10 times following a loss. They also have shown the ability to take care of business against bad teams going 12-3 ATS the past 15 times versus a sub .500 opponent. The Timberwolves rarely can be counted on to play two strong games in a row. Minnesota nearly upset the hot Nets two days ago, losing 112-107. | |||||||
03-31-21 | Flyers v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
The Sabres won't have a better chance of ending their hideous 18-game losing streak than right here. But can they be trusted? Heck no. That's why I'm backing them on the puck line taking 1 1/2 goals and laying juice believing this is going to be an extremely close game between two teams who are playing terribly. It sure went that way this past Monday night. Buffalo jumped to a 3-0 lead before proceeding to lose, 4-3 in overtime. It may have been the Sabres' most frustrating loss of the season, which is saying a lot since you need a calculator to add up all of their defeats. Now the Sabres get their revenge opportunity. Motivation can mean everything, but it won't work if the talent level isn't there. Fortunately for the Sabres, the Flyers are extremely mediocre with the worst defense and penalty kill in the league. Philadelphia is 5-9 in its last 14 games. If laying 1 1/2 goals, the Flyers would be riding a 16-game losing streak themselves. They haven't won a game by more than one goal this entire month. | |||||||
03-30-21 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
If the Clippers cared about this opponent they would crush them. But they don't. Would you? Orlando could field the least respectable lineup in the NBA following the trade deadline where they dealt its three best players to play for the future. LA is extremely fat and happy, winners and covers of six in a row, including a highly-satisfying 129-105 destruction of the Bucks Monday night. Maybe Kawhi Leonard sits out this one since he played yesterday. Orlando has a lineup you don't want to know, but the Magic have been competitive covering their last three games: Beating the Suns straight-up, losing by seven points to the Trail Blazers and falling to the Lakers by three points. Those point spread covers all came at home. Now the Magic are on the road. Point, though, is the Magic's youngsters should continue to play hard now that they have an opportunity while the Clippers are in a monster letdown spot. Even if the Clippers build up a big lead, the backdoor should swing open with LA hosting the Nuggets on Thursday in a much bigger game. | |||||||
03-30-21 | UCLA v. Michigan OVER 135 | Top | 51-49 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
There's enough value for me now to take the Over. I understand Michigan is a strong defensive team and UCLA has stepped up defensively. But in analyzing this matchup there are certain elements that lead me to getting involved with the high side. UCLA is averaging 78.5 points in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins are getting tremendous backcourt play from Johnny Juzang and Jaime Jaquez Jr., who are averaging a combined 36.8 points per game. The Bruins' field goal and 3-point shooting is slightly down from their regular season numbers. So their point production is impressive even though the scoring numbers were boosted by a pair of overtime games. So is the Bruins' 3-point consistency. They have made 34 3-pointers during their four tournament victories. The Bruins have hit at least 35 percent of their 3-pointers in eight of the past 10 games. The last time UCLA had a below 40 percent shooting game from the floor was early February. So I trust the Bruins to contribute their share of points. Michigan's offense really impressed me in scoring 76 points against Florida State. The Wolverines are moving the ball well - 60 assists on 83 made field goals in their three tournament games - and their execution has been superb. UCLA doesn't force many turnovers and ranks 261st in 3-point defense. Those are red flags. Michigan also makes it free throws being one of the top free throw shooting teams in the nation making 78 percent. | |||||||
03-29-21 | Arkansas +8 v. Baylor | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
It takes some luck to reach the Elite Eight. It's very difficult to produce an A game in every pressure-packed matchup. Arkansas got away with that against Oral Roberts in its last game. I'm expecting the Razorbacks to play much better against Baylor, which hasn't been the dominant team it was earlier in the season before having to sit out games because of COVID-19 protocols. I consider Baylor closer to the rest of the remaining teams rather than sitting on the top perch alongside Gonzaga. The Razorbacks aren't getting a lot of love despite peaking at the right time covering 10 of their last 13 games. Arkansas has the defense, necessary guard play and coaching to if not spring the direct upset, at least hang closer than this point spread indicates. Arkansas has the capacity to effectively mix up its defensive coverages. This is crucial in facing Baylor. The Razorbacks held all three of their NCAA Tourney opponents - Colgate, Texas Tech and Oral Roberts - below their season scoring averages. Arkansas is now 10th in defensive efficiency going by the KenPom.com ratings. Moses Moody provides the Razorbacks with an upper level guard. He was instrumental in the Razorbacks ranking seventh in the nation in scoring at 83.3 points a game, which is right there with Baylor's 85.3. Eric Musselman is one of my favorite college coaches. His past teams have a history of not getting rattled in the NCAA Tourney when falling behind. I trust Musselman and the Razorbacks to keep this a close game. | |||||||
03-29-21 | Raptors -3 v. Pistons | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
OK, Toronto it's time. The Raptors are four games out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They can not afford another loss this month to Detroit. Yes, the Pistons are 2-0 versus Toronto in March beating them 116-112 at home and 129-105 on the road March 3. Detroit, though, is in full rebuild. The Pistons are 2-8 in their last 10 games, including 0-4 during their past four games. The Raptors like to bomb from 3-point range. They rank ninth in 3-point accuracy. Detroit ranks 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 22nd in 3-point defense. | |||||||
03-29-21 | Islanders -105 v. Penguins | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
Kudos to the short-handed Penguins who rolled to an easy 6-3 victory at home against New York this past Saturday. The Islanders haven't had a game that bad since late January. I'm expecting a strong effort in short revenge from the Islanders, who draw the Penguins minus a number of forwards and centers. The Penguins' long injury list, includes Evgeni Malkin and Brandon Tanev. Basically the Penguins are missing their No. 2 line. The Islanders were riding a three-game winning streak while going 14-2-1 in their last 17 games prior to Saturday's loss. | |||||||
03-28-21 | Oregon +2 v. USC | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
USC reached this point by beating Drake and Kansas holding those two worthy opponents to a combined 29.2 percent shooting from the floor. It was a combination of outstanding Trojans defense and poor shooting by the Bulldogs and Jayhawks. I expect Oregon to shoot much better than those teams. I like the Ducks' ability to adapt and follow Dana Altman's tremendous coaching. The Ducks have shot 52 percent, or better, in five of their last seven games. They surprised Iowa, 95-80, by playing extremely fast. Oregon has the Pac-12's most efficient offense and also ranked No. 1 in 3-point percentage. The Hawkeyes seemed caught by surprise how well the Ducks played in transition. The Ducks hit 11 3-pointers against Iowa. Oregon is now 15-1 when making at least eight 3-point shots. USC ranks 173rd in 3-point defense. The Trojans hold a rebounding edge with their tremendous size. USC defeated Oregon, 72-58, at home on Feb. 22. That was a rare late-season defeat for Oregon, which is 13-2 in its last 15 games. I'm sure the astute Altman learned from that earlier loss to USC. The Ducks have the flexibility to play various effective styles of zone defenses and to also employ a deadly full court press. They can play fast or slow with equal efficiency. Oregon also has the outside shooting prowess to offset USC's size advantage. Oregon holds a free throw edge, too. The Ducks make 71.2 percent of their free throws. USC was the worst free throwing shooting team in the Pac-12 at 64.3 percent. The Ducks have reached the regional semifinal in four of the past five tournaments. They have covered 10 of the last 11 times they've been a 'dog in NCAA Tourney action. USC hasn't reached the Sweet 16 since 2007. | |||||||
03-28-21 | Hawks v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | 102-126 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
Below the radar screen, the Hawks have been playing very good defense since Nate McMillan took over as coach. Atlanta has held its last eight opponents to an average of 102.3 points per game. The Knicks lead the NBA in scoring defense allowing 104.7 points. Denver has an above average defense. The Nuggets have held six of their last 10 foes to fewer than 109 points. Both teams were active at the trade so there are rotation adjustments. The Nuggets got bigger with their recent acquisitions so they might have gotten slower. | |||||||
03-28-21 | Creighton v. Gonzaga OVER 158 | 65-83 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
It's no secret how Gonzaga is going to play. The Bulldogs are going to push pace - they have the second-shortest average length time of possession - and attack from everywhere on the court. They can do this with such awesome talent in Drew Timme, Corey Kispert, Joel Ayayi and Jalen Suggs. This is why Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring at 92.9 points a game. The Bulldogs also are No. 1 in the country in field goal percentage at 55.3 percent. No matter how high the oddsmaker sets the total, Gonzaga seems to go above it. The Over has cashed an amazing 71 percent of the time in Gonzaga's last 55 games. I envision another Over the total in this matchup. Creighton averages 78.4 points a game, which ranks 42nd in the nation. The Bluejays are 29th in field goal percentage and 52nd in 3-point accuracy. Going by KenPom.com's advanced metrics, Creighton ranks 23rd in offensive efficiency. So it's obvious the Bluejays can hold up their scoring end. The key question is what kind of pace will the Bluejays employ? Opponents, of course, have tried to slow down tempo against Gonzaga. That doesn't work. You have to go back to Dec. 2 to find the last time Gonzaga didn't win by double-digits and that was against West Virginia. It's the only instance of the unbeaten Bulldogs not winning by at least 10 points all season. The Bluejays play their best when they push tempo. Creighton ranks 23rd in the adjusted KenPom.com offensive efficiency ratings. My conclusion then is the oddsmaker has set this total too low. | |||||||
03-27-21 | Syracuse v. Houston UNDER 140.5 | Top | 46-62 | Win | 100 | 39 h 1 m | Show |
Slow tempo. Great defense. High total. These three key ingredients all are here pointing to Under the total. Houston is an extremely slow-paced, methodical team ranking among the bottom-25 in tempo. Syracuse has slowed down its tempo during the ACC and NCAA Tournaments. The Orange's fabled 2-3 zone is going to cause shooting problems for Houston. The Cougars are not familiar with this defensive style. They are a below average shooting team ranking 194th in field goal percentage. Guard DeJon Jarreau is dealing with a hip pointer. He's Houston's assist leader and No. 3 scorer. The Cougars rank No. 1 in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. They also are No. 2 in scoring defense giving up just 57.6 points and rank fourth in defensive 3-point percentage. Sparked by Buddy Boeheim, Syracuse has made 50 percent of its 3-point shots in the NCAA Tournament going 29-for-58. That's unsustainable especially against Houston's elite defense. During the regular season, Syracuse made just 33 percent of its 3-point shots, ranking 213th. | |||||||
03-27-21 | Celtics v. Thunder +9.5 | 111-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Boston is 2-5 in its last seven games and has been a major disappointment this season. The Celtics, though, acquired Evan Fournier at the trade deadline and could start to make a move. They showed that by upsetting the Bucks, 122-114, on the road Friday night. Oklahoma City is 2-1 in its last three games, but is in clear rebuild mode. The Thunder just lost their leading scorer and best player, Shai Gilgeious-Alexander, indefinitely with plantar fasciitis in his right foot. So if this were a long-term prognosis, I clearly would buy Celtics stock and drop any Thunder stock. But it's not. This is just a one-time thing and this particular situation favors Oklahoma City. Fournier is likely to make his Boston debut here. Moritz Wagner, another Boston newcomer, has just joined the rotation. So there's going to be a transition period. Boston just played two tough games against the Bucks, coming off a huge win that may have turned around its season. The Celtics have a bigger challenge on deck returning home to host emerging superstar Zion Williamson and the Pelicans in a revenge game on Monday. The Celtics are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a victory. They are 0-6 ATS the past six times when playing without rest. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday. Their young players are anxious to get back on the court to show what they can do. They should be up for this game. Boston won't. It's a flat spot for the Celtics. | |||||||
03-27-21 | Oral Roberts +11.5 v. Arkansas | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 37 h 60 m | Show | |
I don't want to hear about a 15th-seed never making the Elite Eight. Nor do I want to hear about metrics, KenPom ratings and ESPN's Basketball Power Index. All I know is Oral Roberts is playing well, averages 81.5 points, is off stunning upsets of Ohio State and Florida and is getting double-digits here. I fully grasp that Arkansas averages 82 points and holds a rebounding edge on the Golden Eagles. I also know, however, that Oral Roberts was outrebounded by a combined 30 rebounds to the Buckeyes and Gators yet still won both of those tournament games. Oral Roberts has proven itself. The Golden Eagles are 19-7-1 ATS (73 percent) versus opponents with a winning record. They have an outstanding guard, Max Abmas, and a very good forward, Kevin Obanor. Oral Roberts ranks eighth in the nation in 3-point accuracy and is No. 2 in the country in free throw percentage at 81.3 percent. Arkansas can't match the Golden Eagles in those key areas. These two teams actually met back on Dec. 20. Oral Roberts led 40-30 at halftime, before Arkansas pulled away for an 87-76 home win. I like Arkansas and its coach, Eric Musselman. I was on the Razorbacks against Colgate and Texas Tech. But I don't find the Razorbacks double-digits better than Oral Roberts right now. | |||||||
03-27-21 | Lightning -117 v. Hurricanes | 3-4 | Loss | -117 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
I want the Lightning going for me at this price coming off a 4-3 loss to the Stars two days ago where Tampa Bay blew a two-goal lead. That snapped goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy's 12-game win streak. Carolina is off a 4-3 overtime victory against Columbus this past Thursday. The Hurricanes rank eighth in goals scored and goals allowed. Impressive, but trumped by the Lightning ranking No. 1 in goals scored while giving up the fifth-fewest goals per game. Carolina hasn't scored more than 3 goals in regulation during its last six games. The Hurricanes scored fewer than 3 goals in four of those contests. The teams last met for three games from Feb. 22-25. The Lightning held the Hurricanes to three goals in those three games winning all three by multiple goals. | |||||||
03-27-21 | Oilers v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
Edmonton has been playing some underrated defense allowing an average of 2.1 goals per game in its last nine games. The Maple Leafs haven't broken the 3-goal barrier during regulation in their last nine games. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and John Tavares are in scoring slumps. Toronto is 0-for-15 in its last 15 power play attempts. The Oilers should have plenty of energy having last played a week ago because of COVID-19 protocols. The Maple Leafs have been a defensive nightmare for the Oilers. Edmonton could manage just one goal versus Toronto in three games when the teams last met from Feb. 27-March 3. | |||||||
03-27-21 | Rangers v. Flyers OVER 6 | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm surprised this one opened 6 and not 6 1/2 given past circumstances. Those past circumstances are the Rangers burying the Flyers, 9-0 and 8-3, during the last 10 days. The Flyers should get up for this one no doubt, but their defense certainly can't be trusted. Philadelphia is allowing an average of 4.6 goals in 14 games this month. If there's a worse goalie tandem in the NHL than Carter Hart and Brian Elliott, I haven't seen it. I feel sorry for Shayne Gostisbehere. It's no surprise the Over has won 72 percent of the time during the Flyers' last 32 games. The Rangers have picked up their scoring averaging 4.8 goals during their last seven games. New York has surrendered at least 3 goals in seven of its past 11 games. | |||||||
03-26-21 | Cavs v. Lakers -3.5 | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
The Lakers are in a lot of trouble minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They have lost their last four games. But LA hasn't sunk low enough where they can't cover a short point spread at home against the hapless Cavaliers, who are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games. Cleveland is down several big men with Andre Drummond sitting out waiting for a contract buyout and JaVale McGree traded to the Nuggets yesterday. Cleveland may also be missing its best player and leading scorer, guard Collin Sexton. | |||||||
03-26-21 | Sharks v. Coyotes -120 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
The Coyotes are coming off perhaps their biggest win of the season, 5-4 in a shootout, at home against Colorado. I don't see a letdown. Instead I see the Coyotes building off their win knowing they are in the playoff hunt and can't afford a home loss here. A loss to San Jose would nullify the victory over Colorado, which occurred this past Tuesday. Arizona is 11-4 the last 15 times when playing on two days rest. San Jose enters this matchup fat and happy having swept two close games at home against the Kings. The Sharks are 3-10 the past 13 times following a win. The Sharks' defense has shown improvement. San Jose, though, still is among the bottom-three in goals allowed and shots on goal. The Coyotes are riding with third-string goalie Adin Hill. I'm fine with that after how well Hill looked against the high-powered Avalanche. No team fires more shots on goal than Colorado. Hill made 35 saves, including seven in overtime several of which were huge. San Jose is averaging just 2.2 goals in its last four games. The Coyotes have picked up their scoring producing 11 goals in their last three games. | |||||||
03-26-21 | Nuggets -125 v. Pelicans | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show | |
New Orleans is much better at home. Denver, however, has one of the top road marks in the NBA at 14-9. The Nuggets certainly aren't going to lack motivation and focus either for this matchup. The Pelicans upset the Nuggets, 113-108, as 6 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Sunday. Denver rebounded from that disappointment to knock off the Magic, 110-99, in Orlando three days ago, but then were buried on the road by the Raptors, 135-111, this past Wednesday. This is what Denver coach Michael Malone said about that defeat to the Raptors: "The most frustrating aspect for me was the complete lack of effort, all around from top to bottom; that was an embarrassing performance." Almost always a team comes out hard after getting ripped by their coach for lack of trying. Denver also has rapid revenge motivation losing to the Pelicans at home five days ago. The Nuggets are 9-3 in their last 12 games and rate at least one level higher than the Pelicans. | |||||||
03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
There's only one way to look at this game - and it's not backing the Mountain West Conference team, Boise State. Memphis holds a clear class difference on Boise State not fully reflected in the betting line. The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their only losses during this span occurred to Houston, the No. 6 rated team in the nation. Those defeats were by two and three points, respectively. Memphis has taken care of business when favored covering 10 of the last 11 times in that role. The Tigers also are a blazing 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games, including covering in their last seven games. Boise State, on the other hand, played its best ball early in the season. They are far from peak form now. If the Broncos didn't nip SMU, 85-84, in their first round NIT game they would be 0-5 in their last five games. The Broncos played Houston back at the start of the season and lost by 10 points on the road. If the Broncos are going to hang in they'll have to do it without Abu Kigab and Max Rice. Kigab is the Broncos' second-leading scorer and rebounder. He's also considered their best defender. Rice is part of the Broncos' guard rotation and a good perimeter shooter. Both were hurt late in the season. Memphis has a tall frontcourt. The Tigers are an excellent defensive team ranking No. 2 nationally in 3-point defense and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Tigers displayed their depth, athleticism and defense in rolling past Dayton, 71-60, as 5 1/2-point favorites in their first round NIT matchup. The Tigers grabbed 18 more boards than the Flyers. | |||||||
03-25-21 | Panthers -113 v. Blackhawks | 0-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Florida hasn't lost three in a row all season. But the Panthers could have that happen if they lose this game having lost 5-3 to the Lightning this past Sunday and to the Blackhawks, 3-2, two days ago in an upset. The Panthers fell behind Chicago, 3-0, before rallying to get within one goal before falling. Prior to that game, Florida had won all four meetings against Chicago this season, outscoring the Blackhawks by a combined nine goals in those four games. Florida is the superior team and I see the Panthers getting their quick revenge. It would be an added plus if team captain and team points leader Aleksander Barkov played for Florida. Barkov was scratched during warmups on Tuesday due to a lower-body injury. It was just his fourth missed game during the past two seasons. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,060 |
Dan Kaiser | $932 |
Jesse Schule | $566 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Ray Monohan | $518 |
Mike Lundin | $493 |
Tom Macrina | $430 |
Marc Lawrence | $400 |
Joseph D'Amico | $390 |
Big Al McMordie | $340 |