Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-18-21 | Predators v. Blue Jackets -123 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Nashville is 0-7 the last seven times it has been an underdog. The Predators are a 'dog here. They catch a frustrated and angry Blue Jackets squad. Columbus has gotten better since dropping its first two games of the season - to the Predators. The Blue Jackets are 5-5 in their last 10 games, but off an embarrassing, 7-3, road loss to the Hurricanes this past Monday. Columbus is anxious to put that defeat behind it and also has double revenge against Nashville. The Predators have gone 4-9 since sweeping the Blue Jackets. Aside from Flip Forsberg, the Predators have no scoring threats. They have scored two or fewer goals in five of their last seven games and now rank 29th in the league in scoring at 2.3 goals a game. The Blue Jackets have scored three or more goals in all but one of their last seven games. Nashville hasn't had a chance to get its offense on track either having been idle since Saturday. The Predators were supposed to play two games against the Stars in Dallas, but those were postponed due to bad weather and power outages. | |||||||
02-18-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
Wisconsin is 15-7. The Badgers win with defense. Only 20 teams surrender fewer points per game than the Badgers. Iowa is 15-6. The Hawkeyes win with offense. Only two teams score more points per game than Iowa. Look for defense to triumph over defense here. I like Wisconsin at home in this price range. The circumstances favor the Badgers, too. Iowa is getting too much respect following its 30-point dismantling of Michigan State this past Saturday. This is a down year for the Spartans. Now the Hawkeyes go on the road where they have failed to cover five of the last seven times.Wisconsin is mad after blowing a 12-point halftime lead to Michigan at home this past Sunday in a 67-59 loss to the third-ranked Wolverines. I don't see Wisconsin losing a second consecutive home contest. The Badgers are 11-3 in Madison this season. They also are 10-1-2 ATS the past 13 times following a loss. | |||||||
02-17-21 | Jets v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
The Jets edged the Oilers, 6-5, in a wild offensive showing this past Monday. Neither coach nor players from both teams were happy about that. So I'm expecting far better defensive performances, conservative game plans and more sustained checking. Winnipeg is a top-10 defensive team. Prior to Monday's matchup against the Oilers, the Jets had surrendered just nine goals in their last five games. Edmonton has yielded just three goals in its last three games previous to the Jets' game of two days ago. | |||||||
02-17-21 | Blackhawks v. Red Wings +120 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks are the better team, but not that much better. Chicago was extremely fortunate to nip the Red Wings, 3-2 in overtime, this past Monday. Chicago is 3-0 versus Detroit this season. The Red Wings are improving, though, especially defensively. They have allowed just 2.1 goals per game in regulation during their past six games. The Blackhawks are 5-1 in their last six games. They could easily be 1-5 in those games having won four of those matchups in overtime and the fifth by two goals scoring an empty-net goal in the final minute. Just one goal determined the winner in nine of the Blackhawks' last 11 games. The other two games were decided by two goals with one occurring on an empty net goal in the final minute. This is a triple-revenge spot for the Red Wings. They outplayed the Blackhawks in their last game two days ago. I look for Chicago's luck to run out this time. | |||||||
02-17-21 | Rockets v. 76ers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Who is Shake Milton and why is he a key to this Under the total handicap? Milton is a reserve guard for the 76ers. He is instant offense. Milton averages 14 points, fourth-highest on the 76ers. He's missed the 76ers' last three games with a sprained ankle and won't play again today. Minus Milton, Philadelphia reserves averaged a meager 22 points a game the last three games. Houston is a defensive-minded club under Stephen Silas. The days of Mike D'Antoni are a distant memory. The Rockets are 23rd in scoring, but rank in the top nine in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Under is 16-7-1 in Houston's past 24 games. The Rockets have little firepower left with Christian Wood, Victor Oladipo, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker all dealing with injuries. The 76ers rank sixth in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. They are one of the better rebounding teams in the league. Joel Embiid is expected to play after missing the 76ers' Monday game against the Jazz because of back tightness. If Embiid has to miss a second straight game, Dwight Howard would replace him. That would be an unexpected bonus for the Under as Howard doesn't have an offensive game anymore and is a horrible free throw shooter. The 76ers have lost three in a row. The Rockets have dropped six straight. Expect a lot of defensive intensity as these teams try to halt their losing skids. | |||||||
02-17-21 | Mercer v. East Tennessee State OVER 137 | 71-64 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
There hasn't been a total this low on a Mercer game during the Bears' past dozen matchups. It's too low in my estimation. Mercer is the 39th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging more than 79 points per game. The Bears, however, give up 74.3 points a game, which ranks 272nd. They've permitted at least 70 points in 15 of their last 16 games. East Tennessee State averages 70 points a game. | |||||||
02-17-21 | Iona v. Quinnipiac +6.5 | 70-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
COVID-19 has been a definite handicapping factor this college basketball season. It certainly factors in this matchup and is a major reason why I like home 'dog Quinnipiac. Iona just returned from a COVID layoff of close to two months playing two home games against Manhattan this past Friday and Saturday. The Gaels were favored in both of those matchups and ended up splitting the two games. It was their first action since Dec. 23. No other school had gone longer between games this season. Now Iona plays a road game for the first time since Dec. 19. I don't think all of the rust is off yet, not to mention so many missed practices. This will be Quinnipiac's fifth game in 11 days. The Bobcats are in stop-the-pain mode with three straight losses. Quinnipiac is ranked 172nd defensively in the KenPom adjusted defensive rankings. The Bobcats have the seventh-best defensive field goal percentage in the nation. Iona is ranked 247th in the KenPom adjusted defensive ratings. The underdog is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times in the series. So I'll take the points with the better defensive team in the better situation. | |||||||
02-16-21 | Wild v. Kings +123 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 123 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
If there's a non-West Coast team the Kings most would like to beat it probably is Minnesota. The Wild beat the Kings twice in heart-breaking fashion earlier this season in LA winning both, 4-3, in overtime. The teams then met twice in Minneapolis in late January. The Kings got a split in that series. Now the Kings have a golden opportunity to gain a measure of revenge from those two earlier home defeats to the Wild. LA should be ready and energized, having last played on Thursday. That's nothing compared to the Wild, though. Minnesota has been out of action for the past two weeks due to COVID-19. The Wild are going to be without many of their regular players. The list of those who are include goalie Cam Talbot, defensemen Ian Cole, Jonas Brodin, Brad Hunt and Carson Souch. Forwards Nick Bonino, Victor Rask and Nico Sturm also are out. So the Wild will be rusty and short-handed. Minnesota has managed just one goal in three of its last five games. The Kings have suffered a lot of close losses this season, but they are capable, having won games against the Blues and Avalanche. | |||||||
02-16-21 | Xavier v. St. John's UNDER 156 | Top | 84-93 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
The two teams met back on Jan. 6. Xavier defeated St. John's, 69-61, at home with the total falling Under by 20 points. Now a little more than a month later we have the same two teams and the same total. So what's changed? St. John's has gotten better. Xavier is trying to get the rust off after a long layoff due to COVID protocols. If anything, these changes favor another Under. This is just Xavier's second game since Jan. 30 and third since Jan. 10. The Musketeers must rely on their defense - their strength - because it's going to take time to regain any offensive continuity. Xavier ranks 62nd in the nation in scoring defense and 44th in defensive field goal percentage. The Musketeers did allow 80 points to Connecticut in their first game back from COVID. Prior to that game, however, the Musketeers had given up an average of 63 points to their three previous opponents (Butler, Providence and St. John's). Xavier has had St. John's number, too, beating the Red Storm 12 consecutive times. St. John's is much more offensively-inclined. But the Red Storm can step up defensively. Just ask Villanova. The Red Storm held the Wildcats to a season-low 59 points when the teams met 13 days ago. Villanova is a top-50 scoring team averaging 78.6 points. St. John's should have its defensive intensity sky high in trying to end their long losing streak to Xavier. | |||||||
02-16-21 | Capitals v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
These teams have gone Over the past seven times they've met with the latest being this past Sunday when the Penguins won, 6-3. Nothing has changed. Same mediocre goalies, same Capitals defense that ranks last in the NHL, same Penguins attack that has produced 13 goals the past three games. Neither team plays it safe. Attack is constant, one of many reasons to believe each team is good for at least three goals apiece. The Capitals have scored three or more goals in 10 of their last 11 games. They are No. 2 in scoring per game and have the league's best power play percentage. The Penguins' top line of Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust ripped the Capitals for four goals and eight points in Sunday's game. They are primed to have another huge performance against a defense giving up 3.8 goals per game. | |||||||
02-16-21 | Nuggets v. Celtics -130 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Right now the Celtics are just a so-so team. They are 13-13 and have lost 10 of their last 15 games, including four of their past five.The 8-17 Wizards beat the Celtics in Boston's last game two days ago. Highly underrated Marcus Smart is out for Boston with a calf injury. But I believe the frustrated Celtics show up here in this circle-the-wagons game for them. They draw the Nuggets, who are fat and happy winners of three in a row with the latest being a 17-point highly-satisfying home victory against the Lakers this past Sunday. Denver has been home the past 10 days. The Nuggets are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three road contests losing to the Kings, Lakers and Spurs by a combined 36 points. Boston won't have Smart again. But the Celtics have plenty of firepower with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker. Denver has its own superstars in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. But the Nuggets are in worse shape injury-wise than Boston. They've been missing Gary Harris, PJ Dozier, and Paul Millsap. Spark plug Will Barton didn't play against the Lakers for personal reasons. These sidelined players severely limit the Nuggets' depth and flexibility forcing them to rely on untested, inexperienced players. | |||||||
02-16-21 | St Francis NY v. Fairleigh Dickinson UNDER 161 | 83-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
These are two bad defenses. St. Francis gave up 80 points in its last game. Fairleigh Dickinson yielded 95 points in its past game. That may have influenced the oddsmaker because this total is set too high even given the low quality of the defenses. St. Francis has been held to 70 or fewer points in regulation during eight of its last 10 games. The Under is 9-3 in its last 12 road matchups. As for Fairleigh Dickinson, yes the Knights surrendered 95 points to Wagner in their last game. But in their previous three games, the Knights gave up an average of 69.3 points. That was against Wagner and two games versus Long Island, both of which have above average offenses. | |||||||
02-16-21 | Wagner +4.5 v. Mt. St. Mary's | 61-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm going to ride Wagner, which has won and covered its last five games. Mount St. Mary's is the stronger defensive team. But the Mountaineers don't have enough offense to cover this number. They rank 329th in the country in scoring at 63.5 points. The Mountaineers have been held under 68 points in six of their last seven games. Wagner has produced at least 74 points in eight of its past nine games. | |||||||
02-15-21 | Flames v. Canucks +115 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
The Canucks ended their six-game losing streak with a 3-1 win against the Flames two days ago. It was the Canucks' best game of the season and the close score was not indicative of how much Vancouver dominated. The Canucks outshot the Flames, 43-18. I see the Canucks riding the momentum of that victory to beat the Flames again at home. Vancouver must build on this win if it hopes to have any playoff chance. The Canucks have won four of their past five home games. Calgary is likely to be without Mikael Backlund, who suffered a lower-body injury in Saturday's game. Backlund is the Flames' fifth-leading scorer and leaves the team thin at center. | |||||||
02-15-21 | Jets +123 v. Oilers | 6-5 | Win | 123 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
Edmonton is due for regression. The Oilers have played the Senators in four of their last six games, beating Ottawa all four times. The Senators have the fewest points in the NHL. The Jets and Oilers split two games in Winnipeg earlier this season. The Jets outshot and outscored the Oilers in that series. Edmonton is 4-4 at home. The Oilers last played on Thursday when they beat Montreal, 3-0. Being idle for a full three days at this juncture of the season is too long and can take a hot team out of their rhythm. The Oilers may be fat, rusty and happy. Not so with Winnipeg. The Jets fell to the lowly Senators, 2-1, this past Saturday giving up the winning goal with nine seconds left on a stupid turnover deep in their own end. The Jets are anxious to put that embarrassment behind them. They have defeated the Oilers in eight of the past 11 meetings, including four of the last five times in Edmonton. | |||||||
02-15-21 | Islanders -140 v. Sabres | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The Islanders have picked up their game going 3-1 in their last four games with the lone loss during this span coming in a shootout loss to the Penguins following a late Pittsburgh goal in regulation. The Islanders have their confidence back up after upsetting the Bruins in their last game, 4-2, this past Saturday. Because of COVID-19, the Sabres have yet to play this month. Buffalo finally is back in action, but will be without defensemen Rasmus Ristolainen, Jake McCabe and Brandon Montour along with forwards Dylan Cozens and Tobias Rieder. All are in COVID protocols. The Sabres have a losing home record. They entered their long layoff having allowed at least three goals in five of their last six games. The Islanders have dominated this series winning eight of the past 10 times. | |||||||
02-15-21 | Bulls +5.5 v. Pacers | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
It's a mistake to underestimate the Bulls on the road. During their last nine away games, the Bulls have beaten the Trail Blazers, Mavericks, Hornets and Magic. Their five losses have come by the grand total of 15 points to the Lakers (by two points), to the Clippers (by three points), to the Thunder in overtime (by two points), to the Kings (by four points) and to the Magic (by four points). Chicago has covered the past six times it has been a road 'dog. Indiana is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. The Pacers are returning to Indianapolis following a three-game road swing that ended this past Saturday night with a victory against the Hawks. This is the Pacers' first home game in eight days so their attention could be a bit off. Indiana is 6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games since an 8-4 start. So the Pacers are far from peak form. Chicago does have injuries - Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen are all likely to miss the game. Don't forget, though, the Pacers remain without T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert. | |||||||
02-15-21 | Hampton v. Longwood OVER 135 | Top | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This Big South Conference matchup between a pair of below .500 teams, Hampton and Longwood, definitely is a below-the-radar game. I see it in a different way, though. I think it's an oddsmaker's mistake as far as setting the total too low. Hampton averages 69 points. The Pirates have scored 69 or more points in six of their last eight games. They commit the fewest turnovers per possession of any team in the Big South. The Pirates can take advantage of a Longwood defense that ranks 249th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Longwood is in action for just the third time since Jan. 30. The Lancers are getting back their scoring touch. They beat Gardner-Webb, 78-71, in their last game this past Friday. The 78 points tied the Lancers' highest-scoring performance during their past 15 games. The Lancers should have no trouble scoring in the 70's. Hampton gives up 73.6 points, which ranks 260th. | |||||||
02-15-21 | Eastern Kentucky -8.5 v. Tennessee Tech | 83-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Eastern Kentucky defeated hapless Tennessee Tech, 90-80, last month despite not playing well. The Colonels were outshot from the field by Tennessee Tech and made just 4 of 7 free throws. Tennessee Tech was 9 of 12 from the foul line. The Colonels are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 82.7 points. That's 18 points more per game than the Golden Eagles average. Eastern Kentucky is 16-5. Tennessee Tech is 3-19. The Golden Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times facing an above .500 foe. Eastern Kentucky has covered 14 of its last 19 road contests and is 13-5-2 ATS the past 20 times going against foes with a losing record. | |||||||
02-15-21 | Stephen F Austin -9.5 v. New Orleans | 89-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Stephen F. Austin is 12-3. New Orleans is 4-12. So that accounts for the Lumberjacks being a strong road favorite. It just doesn't account enough in my view. The Lumberjacks have won nine of their last 10 games, scoring 78 or more points in all but one of those games. New Orleans surrenders 76 points a game. The Privateers have been at their worst lately giving up an average of 82 points in their past three games, all losses. The Privateers are 5-15-1 ATS the last 21 times facing an opponent with a winning record. | |||||||
02-14-21 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 217 | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are superstars. But what helps make them such mega-stars is their all-around games. They are more than scoring machines. Both are excellent defenders and a big reason why the Lakers rank No. 2 defensively in the NBA giving up 105.2 points a game. After five straight home games, the Lakers are on the road. The Under has won in 12 of the Lakers' 14 road games this season. Denver is an above average defensive team ranking 12th giving up 111.2 points. The Nuggets have held their last two opponents, Cleveland and Oklahoma City, to 95 points apiece. Nuggets coach Michael Malone knows his team must have defensive intensity to beat the Lakers. I expect the Nuggets to have that after the Lakers defeated them in the Western Conference Finals last season and in the first meeting this season, 114-93, in LA on Feb. 4. The Nuggets led the Lakers at halftime in their meeting 10 days ago. But the Lakers stepped up their game in the second half to win by 21 points. The combined 207 points went Under the posted total of 217 by 10 points. The Nuggets should have learned from that recent loss that they must play better transition defense while staying motivated the entire game. I don't look for the Lakers to attack up-tempo. This is their fifth game in nine days with three of their past four games going into overtime. What I am expecting is playoff-type defense and intensity from both teams in this nationally televised (ESPN) matchup. | |||||||
02-14-21 | Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech UNDER 142.5 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm expecting Pittsburgh to tighten its defense against Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are averaging 63.8 points in their last six games if you toss out an 82-point performance against Notre Dame. So their current numbers are a bit misleading. Georgia Tech has held eight of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 69 points. The teams met twice last season and there were a combined 137 and 130 points scored in those games. | |||||||
02-14-21 | Capitals v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Both teams know no lead is safe especially in this matchup. That may be a trite cliche, but it fits the handicap here. The Penguins are an aggressive, risk-taking team. They don't play things safe. Neither do the Capitals, who relentlessly attack no matter how many goals they may be down. The Penguins have reason to stay on the attack: They rank last defensively giving up 3.7 goals a game. The Penguins are a bottom-four penalty killing team that has failed to adequately replace Matt Murray in net. There have been seven or more goals scored in eight of Pittsburgh's last 11 games. Washington is the fifth-highest scoring team in the NHL with the No. 1 power play in the league. The Capitals have scored three or more goals in nine of their past 10 games. The Capitals, however, rank 28th on defense permitting 3.6 goals a game. They've given up 16 goals in their past three games. Each team should have plenty of energy. The Capitals have been idle for the past week due to COVID-19. They are finally up to full strength. The Penguins last played on Thursday. This marks just their third game in nine days. There's also an Over history here as each of the past six meetings have gone above the total. | |||||||
02-13-21 | Hurricanes v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 4-3 | Win | 105 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
The teams just played one another two days ago. There were 69 shots on goal and eight goals scored with Carolina winning, 5-3. The Hurricanes are the ninth-highest scoring team and rank third in the league in shots on goal. Carolina is averaging 4.1 goals in its last seven games. The Stars are the 11th-highest scoring team in the NHL with the league's fifth-best power play percentage. Another reason I favor at least six goals being scored is the goalie situations. The Hurricanes are going with veteran James Reimer as Petr Mrazek is out indefinitely with a thumb injury. I expect Reimer to get worse and worse the longer he has to keep playing. Meanwhile 34-year-old former backup goalie Anton Khudobin is off to a slow start for Dallas giving indications that his stellar playoff performances from last season may have been a fluke. Opponents have scored 17 goals the past four games Khuodbin has been in goal. The Hurricanes have scored 13 goals in the three games they've faced Khudobin this season. | |||||||
02-13-21 | Rockets -103 v. Knicks | 99-121 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
The Rockets are in stop-the-pain mode losers of four games in a row. Those losses have come to the Spurs, Hornets on the road, Pelicans on the road and Heat in which Houston blew a 13-point lead. I don't consider the Knicks better than any of those teams. However, the 12-15 Knicks definitely are improved under Tom Thibodeau. The Rockets aren't going to have Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo. P.J. Tucker probably isn't going to play either. Still, the Rockets aren't lacking in talent with John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. The Knicks dominated inside in beating the Wizards, 109-91, on the road Friday night. The Wizards rested Bradley Beal. The 6-17 Wizards rank last defensively surrendering 120.3 points. The Knicks scoring 109 points isn't impressive. New York ranks last in scoring, in fact, at 102.7 points per game. Houston averages seven points more per game. Cousins' matchup became a lot easier when Knicks center Mitchell Robinson suffered a broken hand against Washington. That's a tough blow for the Knicks, who also are playing without rest here. | |||||||
02-13-21 | Bruins v. Islanders +122 | 2-4 | Win | 122 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
The Bruins are good. But they've also been lucky. They've won their past four games all by a single goal, including nipping the Rangers, 1-0, on Friday. This marks the end of Boston's seven-game road trip. It's the Bruins' third game in four days and first time this season they are playing without rest. Boston was 1-4 in that role the past five times last season. The Islanders are the Islanders. They remain a tough out. They are well-coached and strong defensively ranking sixth. The Bruins have first-hand evidence of that losing to the Islanders, 1-0, in the team's initial meeting this season on Jan. 18. The Islanders should be in a foul mood after blowing a lead with 30 seconds left in regulation this past Thursday, which cost them a 4-3 shootout home loss to the Penguins. | |||||||
02-13-21 | UL - Lafayette -2.5 v. Louisiana-Monroe | Top | 88-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
UL Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt Conference. The Warhawks are 5-15 and had lost 10 in a row until shocking Lafayette, 72-66, as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. The loss dropped the Ragin' Cajuns to 13-7. Lafayette was flat and didn't shoot well making just 39 percent from the field when its season average is 44.7 percent. Monroe went all out playing three of their players at least 33 minutes. Russell Harrison and Koreem Ozier, the Warhawks' two leading scorers, played 36 and 34 minutes. So fatigue could factor against Monroe, which has a short bench, in this quick turnaround especially with travel involved as the venue changes. Only once in the last 10 seasons has Monroe swept Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are the superior team with better depth and this is a monster short revenge spot for them. Look for Lafayette senior guard Cedric Russell to play much better. He's one of the best players in the Sun Belt averaging 18.6 points. Russell missed 10 of 15 shots from the floor against Monroe. The Ragin' Cajuns average 74.7 points. Monroe ranks 322nd in the nation in scoring at 63.7 points. | |||||||
02-13-21 | Golden Knights v. Sharks OVER 6 | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
The Sharks have some decent scorers and attacking defensemen. They also have a porous defense and are terrible in net. The result has been 67 percent of their games have gone Over this season. I see another Over in this matchup. It's the Sharks' first home game of the season - and they draw Las Vegas. This already has become a heated rivalry. A lot of penalties, both teams going all out and the possibility of running up a score would not surprise me in this matchup. Despite being shut out 1-0 by the Ducks in their last game this past Thursday, the Golden Knights rank No. 2 in the NHL in scoring at 3.7 goals. Until that defeat, the Golden Knights had scored 4 or more goals in each of their last four games. The Sharks rank 28th defensively. They've permitted 3 or more goals in seven of their last eight games. Goalie Martin Jones has been horrendous this season. He's likely to be in net again for the Sharks because backup Devan Dubnyk is dealing with a lower-body injury. | |||||||
02-13-21 | TCU v. Texas UNDER 142 | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
These two Big 12 Conference teams met twice last season. There were 126 points and 123 points, respectively, scored in those two matchups. I'm expecting the same kind of defensive intensity this time around, too. TCU averages under 70 points and is a terrible free throw shooting team. Texas gives up fewer than 69 points. The Longhorns may catch a break if Mike Miles, TCU's second-leading scorer at 14.8 points, has to miss a second straight game due to illness. | |||||||
02-13-21 | Indiana v. Ohio State UNDER 139.5 | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Perhaps the oddsmaker is taking just the final score in Indiana's last three games into account because I find this total to be too high. The Hoosiers have played two overtime games during their last three matchups. If you go by regulation, the Hooisers are holding their last three foes to 62.3 points a game. Ohio State, like Indiana, gives up an average of 68 points per game. The Buckeyes have held four of their last six opponents to 67 points or fewer. | |||||||
02-12-21 | Blues -135 v. Coyotes | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
The Blues were mid-sized to heavy home favorites in each of their last three games - all of which came against the Coyotes. Arizona defeated St. Louis in each of those contests, winning those matchups by a combined four goals. The latest occurred this past Monday with Arizona nipping St. Louis, 4-3, in a shootout. Now, four days later, the two teams meet in Arizona. Nothing has changed my viewpoint that the Blues are the better team. St. Louis dominated 5-on-5 action this past Monday outshooting Arizona, 43-26, while recording 21 hits showing its effective physical style of play. So what's been the problem for the Blues? Special teams. St. Louis was 1-for-12 in power play chances the past three games, while Arizona scored on four of 13 power play opportunities during this span. The Blues have had three days to work out their special teams issues. They have beaten the Coyotes 10 of the last 13 times in Arizona and are 6-1 the last seven times they were road chalk. | |||||||
02-12-21 | Detroit v. Cleveland State OVER 137.5 | Top | 89-83 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
This is an excellent Horizon League matchup. Detroit has won seven of its last eight games, while Cleveland State leads the Horizon League. I'm expecting far more offense than the oddsmaker is projecting. Detroit averages 75.8 points. That number goes up to 80.5 points if you take just the last six games. The Titans win with offense. They are a bad defensive team. The Titans also have a strong history of going Over in away games. The Over is 18-7-1 in the Titans' last 26 road matchups. Cleveland State is averaging 76.8 points in its last four games. The Vikings face a Detroit defense that ranks 277th in points allowed at 74.7, is 289th in defensive field goal percentage and 326th in 3-point defense. Opponents have dented the Titans' defense for 72 or more points in nine of the past 12 games. The Vikings have gone Over in eight of their last 10 home games, too. | |||||||
02-12-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Bulls | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Bulls for knocking off the hot Pelicans, 129-116, at home this past Wednesday. Chicago accomplished the feat by draining a franchise-best 25 3-pointers. Zach LaVine and Coby White led the way scoring a combined 76 points. I don't see the Bulls repeating their "A" level performance against the Clippers, an elite team that I rank three levels higher than Chicago. The question that needs to be answered is can the Clippers cover this mid-sized road number? They didn't cover an 8 1/2-point road spread in their last game, a 119-112 win against the Timberwolves two days ago. The Clippers started flat against Minnesota trailing by 13 points in the first half. I expect a better performance from the Clippers. LA also won't be taking Chicago lightly. The Bulls nearly upset the Clippers in the first meeting, losing 130-127 as 12-point road 'dogs on Jan. 10. The Bulls made an incredible 61 percent of their field goals in that game while the Clippers connected on 48.9 percent. Still, the Clippers still won by three points. Chicago is playing short-handed. Out are Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. Otto Porter Jr. missed the Pelicans' game with a back injury. So he may not play either. LaVine and White will have to step up in a big way again. Paul George is out for the Clippers with a toe injury. However, LA did get back lockdown defender guard Patrick Beverley against the Timberwolves. White shoots just 40.3 percent from the field. LaVine is a great scorer, but he may be the worst defensive guard in the NBA. Kawhi Leonard is playing at a high level for the Clippers. So whatever LaVine gets he's likely to give back even more. The Clippers rank fifth defensively and are ninth in 3-point defense. Chicago ranks 27th defensively. A motivated Clippers team should beat a short-handed Bulls team by double-digits. | |||||||
02-12-21 | Bellarmine v. North Alabama +6 | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
This is an important Atlantic Sun Conference game especially for North Alabama. If the Lions can pull the outright upset they would trail Bellarmine by just one game in the loss column for the conference lead. North Alabama only has been this big of a 'dog once this season and that was back in December against Indiana. Bellarmine has failed to cover in seven of the past eight instances when meeting an above .500 opponent. | |||||||
02-12-21 | UMass Lowell v. Albany UNDER 143 | 79-71 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
These are two below average offenses who I don't see reaching 70 points. UMass-Lowell averages 68.4 points and is a bad free throw shooting team. The River Hawks have been held under 70 points in more than half of their games. Albany is better defensively than on offense where it averages 68.4 points. The Great Danes have held 60 percent of their foes to under 71 points. | |||||||
02-12-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee +17.5 v. Wright State | 81-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off a pair of home upset losses to hot Northern Kentucky, which has now won six in a row. That probably has contributed to this line being over inflated in my view. UWM was 2-1 in its three previous games, including a road upset overtime win against Cleveland State, the Horizon League leader. If the Panthers can upset Cleveland State they should be able to keep within single digits of Wright State. It was a four-point game when the teams last met on Jan. 31, 2020 with Wright State prevailing, 65-61. | |||||||
02-12-21 | Middle Tennessee +17 v. Marshall | 79-107 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
It has been a disappointing season for 5-11 Middle Tennessee State. But the Blue Raiders should not be this large of an underdog. Middle Tennessee State lacks Marshall's firepower, but gives up five fewer points per game than the Thundering Herd. The Blue Raiders have been particularly strong in defending 3-point shots ranking 12th in the nation. The Blue Raiders enter this matchup with a little momentum and confidence, too, coming off consecutive victories against Charlotte. This has been an underdog series with the favorite failing to cover the past four times. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Flames v. Canucks +132 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
Saddled with a five-game losing streak and last in the league defensively, Vancouver is getting no respect. This is a huge game, though, for the Canucks and they are back home after six consecutive road games. They've been idle since Monday. Calgary is slightly below average both offensively and defensively. The Flames have a losing record in their last nine games. They also are 2-4 on the road, while the Canucks are 4-2 at home. Vancouver has double-revenge having lost in mid-January to the Flames, 3-0 and 5-2. Both of those games were in Calgary. The Canucks have firepower. The key for them is defensive improvement. I believe that will happen here. During their current losing streak the Canucks played the Jets, Canadiens and Maple Leafs. Winnipeg ranks ninth in scoring, Montreal is the highest scoring team in the NHL and Toronto has scored the fourth-most goals. Now the Canucks are dropping down in class. The season has gone on long enough where the Canucks' many new faces are more acclimated. This is their spot. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Pacers -3 v. Pistons | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
Returning to Detroit after going 0-4 on their West Coast trip, the Pistons upset the Nets, 122-111, at home this past Tuesday. The Pistons are capable of pulling off a surprise like this. Just ask the Lakers. But by no means are the Pistons a good team. They have yet to win consecutive games this season. I don't see it happening today against the Pacers either. Indiana is at low ebb. The Pacers have dropped a season-high four games in a row. They have been held to their lowest scoring performances in each of their last two games. Brooklyn just defeated Indiana, 104-94, at home Wednesday night. Let's look, though, at who the Pacers have lost to during their skid. They were beaten by the Bucks, the Pelicans - who were playing their basketball of the season with four victories in a row until losing to the Bulls on Wednesday - the Jazz, who are the hottest team in the NBA, and the Nets of James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Now the Pacers are dropping way down in class meeting the Pistons. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers were idle this past Monday and Tuesday before losing to the Nets last night. So there isn't a fatigue factor. Indiana also is 4-1 ATS the last five times on the second of back-to-back games. The Pacers have excelled in this spot going 11-3-1 ATS the past 15 times as a road favorite. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Texas State v. Texas-Arlington +1.5 | 63-56 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
Texas-Arlington opened a slight underdog. The 'dog has covered each of the last seven times in this series. But Arlington shouldn't be a home 'dog. The Mavericks would be riding a five-game win streak if not for an overtime loss to Arkansas State. The Mavericks average eight more points per game than Texas State and give up fewer than 70 points per game. The Bobcats average only 66.8 points on the season. They have averaged just 63 points in regulation during their last four games. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Eastern Washington -2.5 v. Montana State | 93-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm perplexed how short this line is because I rate Eastern Washington much higher than Montana State. The Eagles are on a five-game win streak and have covered 11 of their last 15 away games. Montana State is off a pair of road losses to Weber State in games that weren't close. The Bobcats are 1-5 ATS the past six times when going against an above .500 opponent. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Weber State v. Montana +1 | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show | |
Montana is 7-5 in its last 12 games. But the Grizzlies' record is deceiving. They have lost a number of close games, including a six-point road loss to Arizona. The Grizzlies have a strong defense ranking 38th in the nation giving up 63.6 points per game. They also rate 25th in 3-point defense. That's a huge factor because Weber State is a strong perimeter shooting team. The Wildcats surrender six more points per game than Montana. This is not a good matchup for Weber State. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Long Island +4 v. Mt. St. Mary's | 60-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
This is only the second time all season Long Island is an underdog. The Shark beat Wagner, 77-66, as 1-point road 'dogs on Jan. 14. I don't think they should be an underdog in this game to Mount St. Mary's. Mount St. Mary's is 5-5 in its last 10 games, losing two of its last three games while favored against Sacred Heart and Central Connecticut State. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Winthrop -3.5 v. Radford | 80-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
There's a huge class difference here that's not fully incorporated into the line. Winthrop had opened with 16 consecutive victories until losing, 57-55, as 12 1/2-point home favorites against UNC-Asheville in its last game. That was two weeks ago. The Eagles haven't played since. So they are more than ready to put that disturbing upset loss behind them. The Eagles are the class of the Big South Conference. Radford is a surprising 13-7, in second-place behind Winthrop in the league standings despite losing all of its top scorers from last season. None of Radford's players average double figures in scoring. Winthrop ranks 22nd in the nation in scoring at 81.3 points and has the conference's likely MVP in Chandler Vaudrin. Winthrop has proven itself in this type of situation going 13-4 ATS versus above .500 opponents and covering 17 of its past 24 road contests. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Wagner OVER 142.5 | 72-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Oddsmakers just give a quick glance to small conference matchups like this one before quickly throwing out a total based on season numbers. But on closer inspection - considering current form - this Over/Under has been set too low. Fairleigh Dickinson averages 75 points on the season. That number goes up to 82.1 points in regulation if you look at the Knights' last six games. Wagner ranks 263rd in the nation defensively yielding nearly 74 points a game. Wagner has scored at least 74 points in six of its last seven games. Fairleigh Dickinson has one of the worst defenses in the country ranking 326th allowing 78.9 points. | |||||||
02-10-21 | Bucks v. Suns +4.5 | Top | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
The Suns showed their improvement last season going unbeaten in the Orlando bubble. The lone team to do that during the rebooted season. Phoenix's improvement has carried into this season. The Suns are 14-9 and have a real shot to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Phoenix has the fourth-ranked defense in the league, emerging superstar Devin Booker and underrated team depth. This is a rare nationally televised (ESPN) home game for the Suns, who will be allowing around 1,500 fans into their arena. The Suns have covered eight of the last 10 times they've been underdogs. This will be Booker's sixth game back following a hamstring injury. He's back in top form both scoring and dishing off. The Suns obviously are going to be sky-high for this matchup. Milwaukee is riding a season-best five-game win streak. This handicap isn't a fade on the Bucks. It's far more about the Suns. But Milwaukee has to be a little fat and happy after dismantling the Nuggets, 125-112, at Denver this past Monday to go 3-0 on its current six-game road swing. This also marks the Bucks' fourth game in six days. I'm liking the Suns to cover, if not win, with the expectation they won't have Chris Paul. He missed the Suns' last game, a 119-113 home win against the Cavaliers, this past Monday with a hamstring injury. E'Twaun Moore and Booker stepped up nicely in Paul's absence. The Bucks also are likely to be missing their best point guard with Jrue Holiday in COVID-19 protocol. Word is that Holiday has tested positive for COVID-19. Phoenix is 6-1 in its last seven games and has defeated the Bucks in three of the past four meetings. | |||||||
02-10-21 | Marquette v. Villanova OVER 139.5 | Top | 64-96 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
Marquette hosted Villanova back on Dec. 23. The results weren't pretty for the Golden Eagles. Villanova beat them, 85-68. That's a combined 153 points. The Wildcats didn't play again until Jan. 19 because of COVID-19 issues. This is their sixth game since their earlier meeting against Marquette. The Wildcats just defeated Georgetown, 84-74, at home this past Sunday. I believe the Wildcats are hitting their stride. They have balanced scoring with five players averaging in double figures. Marquette doesn't get many takeaways and has been hurt by giving up second-chance points. I believe Villanova has a high-scoring game just like in the first meeting. The Golden Eagles should hold up their end on the scoring ledger. They are averaging 70.3 points per game during their last three games. Villanova has permitted at least 68 points in six of its past seven games. | |||||||
02-10-21 | Southern Illinois v. Missouri State OVER 139.5 | 53-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker is giving too much credence to the Missouri Valley Conference being a defensive league with this low of a total on this matchup. Southern Illinois has surrendered at least 68 points in nine straight games. The Salukis rank 277th in defensive field goal percentage. They rank 10th in the MVC in points per possession and are last in the conference in 3-point defensive percentage. Missouri State averages 74.3 points. The Bears are fourth in the conference in points per possession and have the top free throw percentage in the league at 76.5 percent. They also rate second in the conference in two-point range. | |||||||
02-10-21 | Bruins v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
The Bruins have scored three or more goals in six of their last seven games. Their offense has become more deadly with the return of star David Pastrnak, who has scored five goals and eight points in four games. Boston should have plenty of energy and fresh legs, too, having been idle since Friday. I'm not sold either on the Rangers' goalies. The Rangers are off a 2-0 home loss to the Islanders. The players talked about stressing offense following that loss. Islanders goalie Semyon Varlamov played very well in that game stopping several breakaway shots. Prior to their 2-0 defeat to the Islanders, the Rangers had averaged 3.5 goals in their past four games. The Over has cashed in six of the Bruins' last seven visits to the Rangers. | |||||||
02-10-21 | Old Dominion v. Charlotte -1.5 | 78-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
I see good value in backing UNC Charlotte at home against Old Dominion even if the Monarchs get back guards Malik Curry and A.J. Oliver as expected. Curry is the Monarchs' leading scorer at 16.5 points. Charlotte has too much defense for Old Dominion and the Monarchs don't have enough offense to counter. The Monarchs rank 313th in the nation in scoring. They also are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road contests. The 49ers hold foes to 64.3 points a game, which ranks 47th. It's also six points fewer per game than Old Dominion gives up. Charlotte has won its last three home games, but is coming off a pair of road losses to Middle Tennessee State. The 49ers are 15-6-1 ATS following a straight-up defeat. | |||||||
02-09-21 | Sharks v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
The Sharks averaged 3 goals per game in their last two games both against the Ducks, who have the eighth-best defense in the NHL. Now the Sharks drop down in class to face the Kings, who rank 26th defensively and allow the fifth-most shots on goal. LA has permitted at least 3 goals in nine of its 11 games. Not helping matters for the Kings is they are shorthanded on the blue line with injuries to Matt Roy and Sean Walker. The Kings, though, should do damage against a weak San Jose State defense that has allowed at least 3 goals in eight of its 10 games. The Sharks rank 28th defensively and 29th in shots allowed. Neither team gets very good goaltending either. | |||||||
02-09-21 | St. John's v. Butler OVER 138 | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
I get that Butler is bad offensively, but I still think this total has been set too low. St. John's has won six in a row, reaching at least 70 points in each of those victories. Only once during this span have the Red Storm scored fewer than 74 points. Butler's defense is down this season. The Bulldogs rank 292nd in defensive field goal percentage. St. John's ranks 37th in scoring at 79.7 points. Look for Butler's offense to pick up now that transfer guard Bo Hodges is getting more comfortable. He became eligible this month and is averaging double figures giving the Bulldogs a much needed added scoring threat. | |||||||
02-09-21 | Lightning -160 v. Predators | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
There's a clear class difference here. It was shown when the two teams met yesterday and Tampa Bay won by three goals despite going with its backup goalie. Now Andrei Vasilevskiy, who I would argue is the best goalie in hockey, will be back in net. The Lightning are 7-1-1 with Vasilevskiy in goal. He has a 1.88 GAA and a .931 save percentage. Tampa Bay hasn't allowed more than two goals in seven of his nine starts. While the Lightning are already in peak form, the Predators are having a down season going 3-7 in their last 10 games. If you discount a 6-5 overtime victory against the Panthers, the Predators have scored just 14 goals in regulation during their last nine games. Tampa Bay ranks fourth in scoring at 3.6 goals per game. | |||||||
02-09-21 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 226.5 | 101-130 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
These teams just saw each other recently with the Rockets beating the Pelicans, 126-112, in New Orleans on Jan. 30. Both coaches stress defense so look for some tweaks and defensive adjustments this time around. There's also something else different. The Rockets had Christian Wood and Victor Oladpio in that victory. They led Houston to the win by combining to score 47 points while shooting a combined 18-for-27 from the field and 4 of 4 from the foul line. Neither is going to play today. Wood is out with an ankle injury and the Rockets have announced that Oladipo is going to be rested. The Rockets played last night, losing to Charlotte, 119-94, on the road. This marks Houston's third game in four days and second in two days so the Rockets aren't likely to push pace. Before surrendering 119 points to the Hornets, the Rockets had held their previous nine opponents to an average of 103.8 points. That would rank first in defense if computed during the entire season. New Orleans has been playing better defense. The Pelicans have held their last three foes to an average of 107.6 points a game, which would rank fifth if that were their average for the entire season. | |||||||
02-09-21 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Panthers | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
The record hadn't reflected it until this past Sunday, but the Red Wings have been making progress. They finally halted an eight-game winless streak by defeating Florida, 4-1, on the road this past Sunday. Detroit's reward? The Red Wings are monster underdogs to the Panthers. Florida should not be this high of a favorite against any team. I'm going to take advantage of what I consider a mispriced line to lay small extra juice on the puck line in order to get the Red Wings at plus 1 1/2 goals. There has been just a one-goal difference in seven of Florida's last eight games. The only game that was decided by a single goal during this span was the Red Wings' three-goal Sunday victory. Note that if given 1 1/2 goals, the Red Wings would hold a winning record during their last 12 games. | |||||||
02-09-21 | Arkansas v. Kentucky OVER 142 | 81-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Kentucky could be the most disappointing team in the country. But the Wildcats have a history of coming on during the second half of the season. They have too many good athletes to have such a low-scoring average. There are signs the Wildcats could be ready to break loose. Kentucky scored 71 points in an 11-point home loss to Tennessee this past Saturday. The Volunteers rank sixth in the country giving up 59.6 points a game. Arkansas is not close to being in Tennessee's defensive class. The Razorbacks allow 69.4 points a game. Arkansas wins with its offense. The Razorbacks rank 12th in the nation in scoring at 82.7 points. They should have plenty of energy, too, having last played a week ago after last Saturday's game against Texas A&M was postponed. | |||||||
02-09-21 | Kent State v. Bowling Green | 71-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
It has been a disappointing season for Bowling Green, who some thought would win the MAC title this season. I see the Falcons prevailing, though, in this quick revenge spot and in stop-the-pain mode. Kent State defeated the Falcons, 96-91, at home on Jan. 27. The Golden Flashes shot 49 percent from the floor and made 17 of 21 free throws for 81 percent. Bowling Green shot 46 percent from the field and made 11 of 15 free throws. The Falcons have a strong senior group led by Justin Turner and Daeqwon Plowden. It's not too much to ask of the Falcons to just win the game. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
It's not so much who you play, but when you play them. That's a major handicap when dealing with the NBA regular season. It's a reason why I'm backing the underdog Cavaliers, who are 1-5 in their last six games and coming off three blowout home losses while the Suns are 5-1 in their last six games. Phoenix has opened its current seven-game homestand with victories against the Pistons and Celtics on Sunday. Following this game, the Suns host the Bucks on Wednesday and then 76ers on Saturday. The Suns are fat and happy right now with a pair of far more challenging and marquee matchups on deck. Cleveland, though, is improved. The Cavaliers have talent with Andre Drummond and an underrated backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Yes, the Cavs were blown out at home in their last three games. Two of those losses came to the Bucks and the other came against the Clippers, who had both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in their lineup. Those are "A" level opponents. Phoenix isn't in that class. The Cavaliers want to begin again and this is their chance, the start of a five-game West Coast trip. Cleveland ranks ninth defensively, but 29th in scoring averaging 103.6. The Suns, however, are averaging only 105.5 points in regulation during their past seven games. That's fewer than two points more per game than Cleveland. Phoenix also carries a fatigue rating. This is the Suns' fourth game in six days and second in two days. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Jackson State v. Southern UNDER 133 | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
These teams are better defensively than offensively. Jackson State has a top-100 defense and is 36-14-1 to the Under the past 51 times versus opponents with a win percentage below .400. The Tigers have held their last three foes to an average of 60.3 points. Southern gave up 72 points to Grambling two days ago in its last game. However, the Jaguars had also yielded only 60.3 points per game during their six games prior to the Grambling game. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Lightning -152 v. Predators | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
The defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning are out of the gates fast going 7-2. They've hosted Nashville twice this season going 2-0 winning by a combined four goals. Tampa Bay has proven itself on the road winning 68 percent of its last 99 away contests. The Predators are not playing well and just lost Ryan Johnson, the center on their top line, to an upper-body injury this past Thursday. Nashville is 3-6 in its last nine games after a split of its two-game series against Florida. The Predators were lucky not to have gotten swept by the Panthers. They were outshot, outhit and lost the faceoff battle by a considerable margin during that series. Tampa Bay is much the superior team. So laying this price doesn't bother me. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Nebraska v. Minnesota -11.5 | Top | 61-79 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
Nebraska has lost 23 straight Big Ten Conference games. Don't expect that streak to end here. Not at Minnesota. The Cornhuskers played for the first time since Jan. 10 because of COVID issues this past Saturday and lost, 66-56, at Michigan State. The obviously rusty Cornhuskers shot just 36.2 percent from the floor and 17.6 percent from 3-point territory. Minnesota is 0-6 on the road, but 11-1 at home. The Gophers have covered six of their last seven home contests. One of their home victories was 81-56 against Michigan State, which just defeated Nebraska. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Hurricanes v. Blue Jackets +127 | 2-3 | Win | 127 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
The Hurricanes ended a four-game losing streak in Columbus by nipping the Blue Jackets, 6-5, on Sunday. They were aided by a controversial goal. I don't see the Hurricanes being so fortunate in this rapid revenge spot for Columbus. The Blue Jackets' scoring is starting to pick up with Patrik Laine getting comfortable with his new team. Laine scored two goals on Sunday. This will be just his fifth game of the season. Carolina is likely going to have to go with third-stringer Alex Nedeljkovic in net for the first time this season. Starting goalie Petr Mrazek is out long-term and veteran backup James Reimer played yesterday and is in need of rest. The Blue Jackets are 5-2 versus Carolina in the past seven meetings despite Sunday's loss. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Islanders +100 v. Rangers | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
No great handicap here. I just believe the Islanders are the better and they are back on track after a 4-3 victory against the Penguins in their last game this past Saturday. The Rangers have started to play better. But I'm not sold on them, nor the consistency of their young goalie, Igor Shesterkin. He was in net during the team's first meeting this season, which the Islanders won, 4-0. The Islanders have defeated the Rangers 13 of the last 18 times on the road. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Gardner-Webb v. USC Upstate UNDER 143.5 | 69-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
Kudos to Gardner-Webb for scoring 91 points in its last game, a 91-64 victory against Presbyterian from this past Friday. But I'm not going to overreact to that performance as prior to that Gardnder-Webb averaged just 61 points during its previous three games. Now Gardner-Webb draws South Carolina Upstate. The Spartans are bad on defense. But they also are horrible on offense averaging fewer than 67 points a game. They have failed to break the 69-point barrier in eight of their last 10 games. The Under has cashed in seven of the Spartans' last 10 games. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Quinnipiac v. Fairfield UNDER 133.5 | 70-77 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
These two Metro Atlantic Athletic foes just met Sunday and Quinnipiac won, 78-63. That total was lined at 129 1/2. Now we have a higher total, but the same two teams. Quinnipiac shot 57 percent from the floor in Sunday's game. That was a fluke for the Bobcats. Even with that performance factored in, they still rank 289th in scoring at 66.8 points a game and 293rd in field goal percentage at 41.3 percent. Fairfield is even worse. The Stags rank 341st in scoring at 60.4 points and are 330th in field goal percentage at 39.3 percent. Their game yesterday was their first since Jan. 16 because of COVID issues. The Stags figure to struggle again offensively not just because of rust, but also because Quinnipiac ranks second in the country in defensive field goal percentage. | |||||||
02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56.5 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 100 | 182 h 31 m | Show |
The Super Bowl is the one NFL game where public money outweighs sharp money. The public almost always bets Over especially on marquee matchups such as this one. The oddsmaker knows that. So I see value on the Under. Much is being made of the Buccaneers being the home team because the game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. But as far as the total is concerned that venue is a plus for the Under. It's an outdoor stadium with a grass field. So it's not a fast surface. The two teams met there this past Nov. 29 and the Chiefs won, 27-24, for a combined final score of 51 points. Patrick Mahomes is the most feared QB in football. Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous wideout. Travis Kelce the best tight end. I acknowledge all of that. But it's difficult to produce big points against a very good defense without a decent running attack. I don't see the Chiefs being able to run on Tampa Bay. No team could during the season. The Buccaneers had the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL. The return of star nose tackle Vita Vea has only strengthened that unit. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't looked good after being out with hip and ankle injuries. Le'Veon Bell doesn't have much left and he missed the AFC title game due to a sore knee. This puts nearly the entire onus on Mahomes. He's being asked to put up four-to-five touchdowns - as you need TD's not field goals to get above this high of a total - with a lackluster ground attack, facing a strong defense and without his starting offensive tackles. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz was put on injured reserve in Week 11 and left tackle Eric Fisher suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury in the AFC title game. Mahomes was brilliant in the title game victory versus Buffalo. However, he was merely a mortal in his previous five games with an 8-to-5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio. Mahomes hasn't faced an insider linebacker duo the caliber of Lavonte David and Devin White. These guys can not only effectively blitz, but also cover well. The Buccaneers also have two tremendous edge pass rushers, Shaquill Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. Those two have combined for 45 1/2 sacks during the past two seasons. The Buccaneers have a solid secondary, too. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. showed star ability in his rookie season. Cornerback Carlton Davis shut down Michael Thomas and held Davonte Adams to 67 receiving yards during Tampa Bay's last two games. Todd Bowles is an elite defensive coordinator. He gave Aaron Rodgers more trouble than any other defensive coordinator this season. Bowles is aggressive, but also shrewd. The Buccaneers can pick their spots blitzing - which is dangerous against Mahomes - because Barrett and Pierre-Paul are such good pass rushers and the Chiefs are minus their two best offensive tackles. I envision the Buccaneers being conservative on offense using more running plays than expected. Both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are healthy. They are good players for Under bettors because they are inside runners who are more reliable than flashy. The Chiefs have a bend-but-don't-break defense. Many of their defensive statistics were below average. But they are above average in the category that matters most - points allowed. Only nine teams gave up fewer points per game than Kansas City, which allowed 22.6. Chris Jones and Frank Clark give the Chiefs two good pass rushers. Safety play is huge versus Tom Brady. Kansas City is covered there, too. The Chiefs are deep at safety. Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill are both excellent. Mathieu has the most interceptions of any safety during the past two years. Here are some prop bet recommendations. Obviously best to shop because numbers and prices vary. Most of these props are courtesy of the Westgate sports book. Under 10 1/2 Accepted Penalties Accepted offensive penalties were the lowest in the NFL since the modern 32-team era. There seems to be an unwritten mandate from the league to officials to cut back on penalties. Few penalties are likely going to be called in the Super Bowl. The league doesn't want their showcase game to be littered with yellow flags. There were just six penalties accessed in the NFC title game. Tampa Bay had only two. There were seven penalties marked off in the AFC championship game with Kansas City accounting for just three. During the 12 postseason games, there were 10 or fewer penalties in nine of the games. That's 75 percent. The Buccaneers had 12 penalties in their three playoffs games for an average of four. The Buccaneers were tied for 20th in penalties during the regular season. The Chiefs had the fourth-most penalties during the regular season. That's a big reason why this penalty total prop is at double-digits. However, the Chiefs had just three penalties marked against them in their AFC title win against Buffalo. You could see in the title games that official's were only calling obvious fouls. They were letting a lot of physical defensive play, such as holding and grabbing, go especially in the Buccaneers-Packers game. I don't see why that would change for the biggest game of them all. Cameron Brate Under 26 1/2 receiving yards Brate is a short-yardage, red zone target. I don't see Tom Brady looking for Brate outside the red zone when he has Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Leonard Fournette out of the backfield and fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski to throw to. This doesn't leave room for Brate. Tyrann Mathieu Over 4 1/2 assisted/solo tackles Mathieu is one of the most productive safeties and he figures to be plenty busy. He's a defensive centerpiece, similar in chess terms to a queen. I wouldn't be surprised if he had more than four solo tackles. When you add assists, it's a no-brainer for me. Ronald Jones Over 34 1/2 rushing yards I believe the Buccaneers are going to run more than some expect in order to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field for as long as possible. Leonard Fournette has the higher rushing Over/Under yardage figure, but Jones is Tampa Bay's best running back in my view. Jones had a breakthrough season rushing for 978 yards. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, which was the eighth-highest in the league. Fournette is going to get carries, but so is Jones. Most Valuable Player I'd make a pizza wager on linebacker Devin White at 40-1. I like the Under so a lower-scoring game than expected and a Tampa Bay victory could put White in contention. I do a Rotisserie-style fantasy football league in which tackles and sacks are separate categories. So I can tell you White is just a tremendous talent since I've watched him closely. He piles up tackles and gets sacks, too. There is recent precedent for defensive players winning Super Bowl MVP honors. It's happened twice in the last seven seasons with Malcolm Smith doing it and Von Miller achieving the feat five seasons ago. | |||||||
02-07-21 | Temple v. Wichita State UNDER 141.5 | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Temple averages less than 64 points. That average shrinks to 62.7 if you take the Owls' last four games. The Owls barely manage to average 60 points when on the road. Wichita State is a solid defensive team giving up 69 points per game. The Shockers have held their past six home opponents to 64 points per game. The Shockers should maintain their defensive intensity throughout the game even if the score becomes lopsided after Tulane came back from 21 points down to cut the Shockers' lead to six points during the final minute in Wichita State's last game, a 75-67 victory this past Wednesday. Temple's strength is its defense. The Owls have held five of their last six foes to fewer than 69 points a game. That's in line with their season average of holding opponents to 68.5 points per game. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Oilers +113 v. Flames | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
The Oilers are playing much better than the Flames right now. Edmonton also is in the better situational spot having not played since Tuesday while Calgary is in action for the fourth time in six days. This also is the Flames' first home game since Jan. 26. This is an intense rivalry. Calgary, though, loses much of its home ice advantage because no fans are allowed in the stands. Edmonton is up to .500 having won three in a row. The Oilers have looked much better on their special teams. Calgary is below .500 on the season. The Flames haven't scored more than two goals in four of their last five games. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Sharks v. Ducks -114 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
The Ducks probably should have defeated the Sharks on Friday night. They blew a 3-1 lead and lost in a shootout. Anaheim outshot San Jose, 37-30. I don't see the Ducks losing a second straight home game at Honda Center to San Jose in this second of consecutive games. The problem with backing the Ducks is their lack of offense They rank last in the NHL in scoring. However, the Ducks have scored a season-best seven goals during their last two games. They also are facing a porous Sharks defense that ranks second-to-last in the league giving up 3.9 goals per game. The Sharks haven't been good enough offensively to overcome their defensive problems ranking 27th in scoring. Anaheim ranks eighth defensively and has the sixth-best penalty killing unit. The Sharks have scored just one power play goal in 26 chances during their past six games. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Pistons +14 v. Lakers | 129-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
It was 10 days ago that the Pistons upset the Lakers, 107-92, as 7-point home 'dogs. Now it's the Lakers' turn to return the favor and this time they have Anthony Davis, who missed the earlier Pistons game. But having Davis and home-court isn't worth seven extra points.The oddsmaker didn't think so opening this game Lakers minus 13. Early marketplace activity has put the Lakers up to minus 14. Yes, this is a revenge spot. But the Lakers aren't some up-and-coming team out to settle personal grudges. They followed up a grueling 5-2 road trip with an impressive home victory against the Nuggets on Thursday night. LA has played well this season, but its goal is to peak when the playoffs come round just like last season. The Lakers will take care of business here, but they have no need to go all out to bury the Pistons, who they won't see again. Note that the Lakers are 1-5 ATS the past six times versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. After upsetting the Lakers, the Pistons took to the road. This is the finale of a four-game West Coast trip that has not gone well. Detroit is 0-3 on their its losing by 27 points to the Warriors, by 12 to the red-hot Jazz and by 17 to the much-improved Suns. So this is a stop-the-pain game for the Pistons, who should play the Lakers with more confidence than most teams. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Pelicans | 109-118 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Memphis had won and covered seven in a row until its last two games, losses to the Rockets and Pacers. So the Grizzlies are pointing to this matchup especially JaMorant, who treats this opponent with extra special motivation because Zion Williamson was drafted ahead of him. The timing is good for Memphis because it gets back big man Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen to help its backcourt depth. Valanciunas' return is huge because the Pelicans are dangerous inside with Williamson and Steven Adams. New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in points in the paint. The Grizzlies have won six of their eight road contests, while the Pelicans are 5-5 at home. New Orleans is coming off consecutive victories against the Suns followed by an upset victory at Indiana, 114-113, two days ago. The Pelicans have not won three games in a row all season. They also are 1-7 ATS the last eight times as a home favorite. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 223.5 | Top | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This total isn't high enough even if both teams weren't missing their top low-post scorers. San Antonio is averaging 110.8 pts in its last five games. The Spurs are a better defensive team than offensive team. They also are without LaMarcus Aldridge. That means big minutes for Jakob Proeltl, an Under bettor's delight - a shot-blocker with a limited offensive game and a terrible free throw shooter. The Rockets have become a defensive team-first under Stephen Silas. Houston ranks in the top-six in many of the major defensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Houston has surrendered just 103 points per game during its last eight games. The Rockets are without their leading scorer, Christian Wood. Not only was Wood averaging 22 points, but he was shooting 55.8 percent from the field. The team's met twice in mid-January. Both games went Under with a combined scoring total of 214 and 194 in those games. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Northwestern v. Purdue -7 | 70-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Purdue should be a double-digit favorite at home against Northwestern, which has lost eight in a row while going 1-7 ATS in those games. The Wildcats have failed to cover the past seven times facing an above .500 foe. The Boilermakers are anxious to put a 61-60 rough loss to Maryland on Tuesday behind them. They hold a big edge inside with Trevion Williams and are expected to get back their second-leading scorer, Sasha Stefanovic. He has missed the last three games due to COVID-19 protocols. He's one of the top 3-point shooters in the Big Ten. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Chattanooga v. East Tennessee State UNDER 138.5 | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
UT-Chattanooga has stepped up defensively holding their last three foes to a respectable 68.3 points a game. East Tennessee State has a top-70 defense allowing fewer than 66 points per game. The Mocs haven't played too many defenses of this caliber. The Buccaneers' offensive numbers are inflated because of a recent 112-84 blowout victory against The Citadel. This is a Southern League matchup so the oddsmaker isn't doing a deep dive into this game. He's just set a total based on season statistics. In this case, the number is set too high. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Coyotes v. Blues -155 | 3-1 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Arizona is not a good road team. But the Coyotes edged the Blues, 4-3, on Thursday. It was their first away victory of the season. I don't see the Coyotes making it two in a row and I'm willing to lay a higher price than normal to back St. Louis in this spot. The Blues had won four consecutive games until falling to the Coyotes. Arizona built a 3-0 lead and held on to win, 4-3. The Blues did not play a good game yet almost pulled out the victory. Following the game, Blues coach Craig Berube ripped his team. So I don't anticipate St. Louis to be flat again in this spot. The Blues have been the only NHL American-based team not to have a player go on the COVID protocol list. Even with that victory, Arizona is just 5-21 in its last 26 road contests. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Evansville +20.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 55-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Oddsmakers are projecting a low-scoring game and I agree. So taking this many points makes sense, which it often does in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference. Loyola has the best defense not just in the MVC, but in the entire country. The Ramblers give up only 56.2 points a game. Evansville, however, is in good current form with consecutive victories against Valparaiso. The Purple Aces are holding foes to 67.2 points per game. They just held Valparaiso to 52 and 51 points in their last two games. Evansville is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games. | |||||||
02-06-21 | NC State -3.5 v. Boston College | 81-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
North Carolina State is the superior team. The Wolfpack are 7-7 and 3-6 in the ACC while Boston College is 3-10 and 1-6 in the ACC. The point spread with NC State a road favorite accounts for that. But what it doesn't fully account for is Boston College's situation. The Eagles haven't played in three weeks due to COVID-19 issues. Not only are they rusty, but their rotation could be unsettled. Walk-ons could draw important minutes. NC State has kept playing. The Wolfpack gave 14th-ranked Virginia a scare in their last game before losing, 64-47, this past Wednesday. | |||||||
02-05-21 | Sharks +102 v. Ducks | 5-4 | Win | 102 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
The Sharks have played a tough schedule: Eight games all on the road. While the Sharks lost two games to the Avalanche, no shame in that given Colorado was at full strength then and San Jose carried a fatigue rating while playing back-to-back games in high altitude, they managed splits against the Coyotes, Blues and Wild. Due to COVID-19 issues, the Sharks haven't played during the last eight days. That was a needed break. So I'm expecting a strong effort from San Jose. The Sharks have won seven of the past nine times versus the Ducks in Anaheim. The Ducks are playing for the fourth time in seven days. They have the worst offense in the NHL. Anaheim has managed just eight goals in its last five games. | |||||||
02-05-21 | California Baptist +10.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
This line is way off in my view. New Mexico State will be fortunate to beat Cal-Baptiste, which has a better record than the Lobos and far more firepower. Yes, New Mexico State is home and getting close to full strength. But the Lobos are one of the weaker teams in the Western Athletic Conference seeking their first league win. Their home games are being played in a high school gym in El Paso with no spectators allowed. El Paso is 46 miles from Las Cruces, which is where New Mexico State is located. So the Lobos really don't have a home-court edge. Cal-Baptiste leagues the WAC in scoring at 83.5 points. The Lancers have two excellent outside shooters in Ty Rowell and Reed Nottage. They've helped the Lancers rank eighth in the nation in 3-point shooting at 39.9 percent. The Lancers do a good job moving the ball around, too, ranking No. 2 in the country in assist percentage on made field goals and they have a very good rim protector in 6-foot-11 Gorjok Gak. He averages nearly 11 rebounds and two blocks per game, while shooting better than 61 percent from the floor. New Mexico State has been held to fewer than 64 points in three of its last four games. The Lancers had won five in a row until suffering a 79-75 home upset loss to Dixie State this past Saturday. I expect Cal-Baptiste to bounce back in strong fashion. The Lancers haven't had two straight non-covers all season. They also have covered 13 of their last 17 road games. | |||||||
02-05-21 | Oral Roberts +5 v. North Dakota State | 54-61 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
There are four decent teams in the Summit League. These are two of them. North Dakota State is 10-8. Oral Roberts is 9-7. Oral Roberts averages 81.5 points, which ranks 24th in the nation. The Golden Eagles average 14 more points per game than North Dakota State. The Golden Eagles also have covered six of their last eight road games. They are 4-0 during their past four away contests averaging 90 points in those games. That's too much firepower for North Dakota State. | |||||||
02-05-21 | South Dakota v. South Dakota State OVER 150 | 64-56 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a battle of the two best teams in the Summit League. These teams win with offense. South Dakota ranks 114th in scoring at nearly 75 points a game. The Coyotes rank 29th in 3-point shooting percentage and are an excellent free throw shooting team. South Dakota State averages 80.5 points per game. The Jackrabbits rank third in 3-point percentage and are 22nd in field goal percentage. They, too, are good at the free throw line. So look for offense - not defense - in this matchup. That was the case back on Dec. 12 when the teams met at a neutral site. South Dakota won, 91-78, for a combined 169 points. South Dakota State was missing its second-leading scorer, Doug Wilson, for that game. Wilson averages 15.8 points. South Dakota is averaging 90.6 points in its last three games, all of which have gone Over. The Jackrabbits are averaging 89 points in their last five games. The Over has cashed in seven of their last eight lined games. | |||||||
02-05-21 | Jazz v. Hornets +8.5 | 138-121 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Early marketplace activity has been on Utah. It's understandable considering the Jazz have won 13 of their last 14 and just rolled past the Hawks, 112-91, on Thursday to open their 3-game road trip. This looms as a flat spot, though, for the Jazz. They have a tougher game against the Pacers on deck Sunday. After that game, Utah goes home to play the Celtics and Bucks. This also mark's Utah's third game in four days and fifth matchup in eight days. The Hornets are a spunky team at best in an underdog role where they are 20-7-2 (74 percent) the past 29 times taking points. This includes a money-banking 9-2-1 ATS mark as a home 'dog. Charlotte likely won't have starting power forward P.J. Washington again. He's out with a foot injury. But underrated big man Cody Zeller is back and the Hornets also expect to have shooting guard Terry Rozier in the lineup after he missed time with an ankle injury. The Jazz have been hot from 3-point range. The Hornets have an above average 3-point defense to counter that. | |||||||
02-05-21 | Wizards +6.5 v. Heat | 95-122 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
I realize the defending Eastern Conference champion Heat are much better than their 7-14 record. By the same token, though, the Wizards are better than their 5-13 record now that they finally are at full strength. Both teams have to deal with injuries and extensive COVID-19 issues. Miami, however, can not be laying this many points to an opponent who is better than perceived at this stage of their season right now. The Heat are 1-7 in their last eight games. They just were outplayed by the Wizards in a 103-100 loss as 9-point home favorites this past Wednesday. Russell Westbrook didn't even play in that game. Westbrook was rested. He's back in action for this one teaming up with Bradley Beal, who torched Miami for 32 points two days ago. The Wizards are a far more respectable team with Davis Bertans, Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura all back in the rotation. The Heat have several key players rounding into shape from injuries and sickness, including Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Miami is 0-7-1 ATS the last eight times when favored. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | 93-114 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
As great as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are, nobody has been playing as well as Denver big man Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets ended the Jazz's 11-game win streak in their last game. That was back on Sunday. So the Nuggets have had ample rest and preparation time. Denver has been pointing to this matchup, the first time the Nuggets are playing the Lakers after LA beat them in the conference finals. This is the Lakers' first home game following a seven-game road trip that concluded with a 107-99 victory against the Hawks this past Monday. So it's not an ideal spot for the Lakers. The Lakers are 16-6, but they are far from being in peak form. They are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. During this home span the Lakers lost 115-113 to the Warriors, defeated the Pelicans, 112-95, nipped the Bulls, 117-115, lost to the Spurs, 118-109, and fell to the Trail Blazers, 115-107. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Colorado State v. Wyoming +8.5 | Top | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show |
This has been a huge underdog series with the favorite being just 1-8-1 ATS during the past 10 meetings. I see that trend continuing here. Wyoming averages more points than Colorado State and the Rams defense has shown signs of slippage lately giving up 76 or more points in three of their last four games. The Cowboys were impressive in their last two games defeating Nevada twice, winning by five and seven points. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Eastern Washington -15 v. Idaho | 89-75 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
Eastern Washington is among the best teams in the Big Sky Conference. Idaho isn't just the worst team in the Big Sky, but one of the worst in all of college basketball with an 0-13 record. The Eagles should have no problem exploiting a porous Idaho defense that ranks 314th. The Vandals have failed to cover in their last five games. They've lost those games by an average of 18.8 points. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Belmont v. Eastern Illinois +14 | 89-61 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
Belmont definitely is the class of the Ohio Valley Conference this season. But don't be shocked if Eastern Illinois stays within single digits. The teams met on Jan. 21 and Belmont won, 79-66, as 11 1/2-point home favorites. It was just a two-point game at halftime. Now the Bruins are larger favorites on the road. I don't see it. Eastern Illinois has some confidence after halting an eight-game losing streak with an upset road victory against SIU Edwardsville this past Tuesday. Belmont barely escaped Murray State this past Saturday, winning 72-71. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Predators v. Panthers -109 | 6-5 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Florida is playing well. Nashville has yet to show anything on the road. So I'm going to ride the Panthers at a fair line value price. The Panthers are 5-0-1. All but one of their victories has been by one goal. So they've been fortunate. But they've also produced good numbers such as ranking seventh in scoring, seventh in defense and fourth in power play efficiency. Florida is the lone team left that has not lost in regulation. The Panthers also have been idle for the past three days. Nashville is 0-4 on the road. The Predators, in contrast to the Panthers, have bad numbers: 28th in scoring, 24th in scoring defense, 28th in power play efficiency and last in penalty kill efficiency. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Senators v. Canadiens -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Montreal is tied for the most points in the NHL. Ottawa is the worst team in the NHL right now. But can the Canadiens beat the Senators by more than one goal? I'd be surprised if they didn't. The Canadiens are 7-2 in their last nine games. All of their victories during this nine-game span have been by multiple goals. They lead the NHL in scoring at 4.4 goals per game. The Senators have lost by multiple goals in each of their last seven games. This is their finale of a hellish seven-game road trip. it's their fifth game in nine days. So the Senators may not have anything left in the tank physically and mentally. Montreal has dominated Ottawa, too, going 12-1-2 versus the Senators dating back to the 2016-17 season. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Stars v. Blue Jackets +110 | 3-4 | Win | 110 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Until losing to the Stars, 6-3, this past Tuesday, the Blue Jackets had beaten Dallas eight straight times. Dallas had dropped five in a row in Columbus until achieving that win. That game marked Patrik Laine's much-anticipated Columbus debut - and it was a flop. The Blue Jackets stunk and Laine had trouble adjusting to his new team and was rusty having not played since Jan. 14. Laine should have his legs under him and be more comfortable this time around. The Blue Jackets have revenge and history going for them. The Stars have been playing well, but I don't see them keeping this pace up especially 36-year-old Joe Pavelski. He's fifth in the NHL in points. He's averaging two points a game. The only other person at that elite level is Connor McDavid. | |||||||
02-04-21 | USC Upstate +9.5 v. Radford | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
I don't think Radford is justified being this high of a favorite. South Carolina Upstate has improved since an 0-9 start going 3-2 in its past five games. Radford averages less than two more points per game than South Carolina Upstate. Both teams are off long layoffs. South Carolina Upstate hasn't played since Jan. 15, while Radford was last in action on Jan. 25. So that puts some randomness into this matchup, which is good for the underdog. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Wagner v. St Francis NY -2 | 74-67 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
It doesn't matter if it's a major conference, or the Northeast Conference. When a line is off it's off. I believe the line in this Northeast Conference matchup is wrong. St. Francis-Brooklyn should be favored by much more. Wagner is 2-5. The Seahawks haven't played since Jan. 15 because of COVID-19 protocols. They have failed to cover in 21 of their last 27 road games, including going 0-3 SU and ATS away from home this season. St. Francis-Brooklyn averages 76.8 points. The Terriers outscore Wagner by nearly eight points a game. St. Francis is 4-4 on the season. The Terriers are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times hosting foes with a losing road record. The Terriers are not strong defensively. But they are too explosive for Wagner and are playing at home against a bad road team. Wagner is led in scoring by Elijah Ford, who averages 20.8 points. Ford, though, hasn't played since Dec. 22 due to a hand injury. If he returns to the lineup, he figures to be rusty. | |||||||
02-03-21 | SMU v. Tulsa +2.5 | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
These teams are close to even. Tulsa has the better American Athletic Conference record, gives up three fewer points per game than SMU and is home. So I'm not buying SMU as road chalk. The Mustangs are off a demoralizing 70-48 road loss to Houston this past Sunday. SMU is 2-8-1 in its last 11 road contests and 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall games. Tulsa is deserving of more respect. The Golden Hurricane rank 44th in the country defensively. They have pulled a number of conference upsets, including beating Houston and Memphis twice. | |||||||
02-03-21 | Wolves v. Spurs -8 | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
I have to believe Gregg Popovich is going to have the Spurs ultra competitive in this spot after San Antonio lost two straight to the Grizzlies, both at home. The Spurs' 133-102 loss to Memphis this past Monday was their most lopsided of the season. Minnesota is 2-8 in its last 10 games. The Timberwolves' lone victories during this span were against the short-handed Cavaliers and Pelicans. Minnesota has lost eight consecutive road games. Karl-Anthony Towns has missed the past nine games. The Timberwolves rarely have been competitive without him. Minnesota has lost by 12 or more points during four of its last five defeats. The Spurs aren't going to have LeMarcus Aldridge. I'm fine with that. Aldridge isn't the All-Star of past seasons. The absence of Aldridge is more than offset with the Timberwolves again being without Towns and guard Jarret Culver, a key member of their rotation. The Timberwolves are in action for the fourth time in six days. San Antonio won't play again until Saturday against the Rockets in Houston. Another reason the Spurs shouldn't be holding anything back. Before losing two in a row to the Grizzlies, the Spurs had defeated the Celtics and Nuggets in their previous home games. So the Spurs are capable of dispatching the Timberwolves by double-digits. | |||||||
02-03-21 | East Tennessee State v. Mercer -125 | 70-64 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
The combination of Mercer's high scoring and 6-foot-11 Maciej Bender's low-post defensive presence and shot blocking ability should provide Mercer with a comfortable victory. The Bears average 78 points per game, which is eight more points per contest than East Tennessee State averages. Mercer has balanced scoring led by Ross Cummings, who is one of the most accurate perimeter shooters in the country. Cummings, who averages 15.7 points, shoots 51.5 percent from the floor and has made 44.8 percent of his 3-point attempts. | |||||||
02-03-21 | Fordham v. Massachusetts -13 | Top | 54-60 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
Fordham was the preseason pick to finish as the worst team in the Atlantic 10. The Rams haven't disappointed. They are 1-8 and rank fourth-from-the-bottom in scoring nation-wide averaging 51.2 points. UMass, which is 5-4, averages nearly 30 more points per game than the Rams. The Minutemen have a huge talent edge with one of the top players in the conference, Tre Mitchell. The teams met at Fordham on Jan. 17 and UMass won handily, 65-49. Now the Minutemen catch Fordham at home where they are 20-6-1 ATS the past 27 times. So UMass should romp again. It's not just having destroyed Fordham earlier on the road either. Compare how these teams fared against LaSalle. UMass beat the Explorers twice by 19 and 16 points, respectively. Fordham lost to LaSalle by 27 points. | |||||||
02-02-21 | Ducks v. Kings -113 | 3-1 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
The Ducks average 1.6 goals. That's last in the NHL. They are off two home games versus the Blues where they were outscored, 10-2. Oh, yes, this also is the Ducks' fourth game in six days. By contrast, the Kings are well rested. They last played on Thursday. The Kings are 3-2 in their last five games with victories against the Blues, Avalanche and Wild during this span. The Kings are the better team, home and in the better spot. So this short price is worth laying. | |||||||
02-02-21 | USC -2 v. Stanford | Top | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
Stanford has the Pac-12's leading scorer, Oscar da Silva. But USC has star 7-foot center Evan Mobley and a much stronger bench. This could factor since the Cardinal have been without three starters - Daejon Davis, Bryce Willis and Ziaire Williams - during the past three games. Those are their No. 2, 4 and 5 scoring leaders. Mobley leads the Pac-12 in rebounding and blocked shots. He's a probable top-three NBA draft pick if he decides to leave USC at the end of the season. A key for the Trojans is that they've been able to get in some much needed practice time and rest having played only twice since Jan. 20. Their last game was this past Thursday when they beat Oregon State, 75-62, as 12 1/2-point home favorites. USC should be primed as it goes on the road. The Trojans have covered nine of their last 12 away matchups. | |||||||
02-02-21 | Blazers +2 v. Wizards | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
The Wizards are coming off their biggest win of the season beating the Nets, 149-146, on Sunday after trailing by 18 points. The Wizards aren't used to winning. They are 4-12. It's a rare letdown spot for the Wizards. Washington has been favored four times. The Wizards have lost three of those times straight-up. Portland is off its worst loss of the season, 134-106, to the host Bucks on Monday. The timing was bad for the Trail Blazers. They caught the Bucks returning home off consecutive road losses to the Pelicans and Hornets. Now the timing is bad for Washington, which has the worst defense in the NBA. The Trail Blazers have covered six of their nine away contests this season. They also have defeated the Wizards during each of the last three meetings. | |||||||
02-02-21 | Tennessee -4.5 v. Ole Miss | 50-52 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on Tennessee after the Volunteers rolled past then 18th-ranked Kansas, 80-61, as 3-point favorites this past Saturday. A key takeaway from that game was not only restored Tennessee confidence - the Vols were 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS in their three previous games - but that the Vols outrebounded the Jayhawks, 38-23, while giving up zero second-chance points. Mississippi doesn't shoot well. The Rebels rely on rebounding and second-chance points. That's going to prove difficult against the Volunteers, who have the sixth-stingiest defense in the nation giving up fewer than 60 points per game. Ole Miss isn't playing well. The Rebels have dropped two in a row, including a 71-61 road loss to Georgia this past Saturday. The Rebels have made just 25.9 percent of their 3-point shots in SEC play while conference foes have made 37.4 percent while shooting 25 more 3-pointers. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,060 |
Dan Kaiser | $932 |
Jesse Schule | $566 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Ray Monohan | $518 |
Mike Lundin | $493 |
Tom Macrina | $430 |
Marc Lawrence | $400 |
Joseph D'Amico | $390 |
Big Al McMordie | $340 |