Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-01-21 | East Tennessee State v. Wofford -124 | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
These have been the two best teams in the Southern Conference. That's likely the case again this season. East Tennessee State leads the conference with a 6-1 mark. Wofford is tied for second at 7-2. Both the Buccaneers and Terriers have been playing well. But it's not too much to ask Wofford to win at home. The Terriers have been dominant at home the past three seasons at Richardson Indoor Stadium going 31-7, including winning six of seven home contests this season. The Terriers average nearly five points more per game than East Tennessee State. The Buccaneers' offense has been up-and-down. Only twice in their last six games have the Buccaneers scored more than 71 points. Wofford has produced 72 or more points in seven of its last nine games. | |||||||
01-31-21 | UNLV v. Nevada -130 | 60-89 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Nevada beat UNLV in both meetings last season and the Wolfpack should defeat UNLV at home. This has always been a huge rivalry that the Wolfpack traditionally take more seriously than UNLV. Nevada is 6-2-1 ATS during the past nine meetings against UNLV. The Wolfpack have won three of its four Mountain West Conference home games this season, while UNLV has yet to win a conference road game. The Rebels last were on the road Jan. 9. Both teams are strong defensively, but I trust the Wolfpack's offense and 3-point shooting more. The Rebels still haven't found a consistent ballhandler having lost point guard Marvin Coleman for the season. In addition, the Rebels' leading scorer, Bryce Hamilton, has been hampered by an ankle injury. He averaged just eight points in the Rebels' last two games after averaging more than 20 points a game entering those last two contests. There's a chance Hamilton may even sit out against the Wolfpack. | |||||||
01-31-21 | Blues v. Ducks +143 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
The Blues are riding high on their 2-0 road trip beating the Golden Knights in overtime this past Tuesday and then burying the Ducks, 6-1, scoring three goals within the first 2:06 of the game. Following this game, the Blues go home for four games against the Coyotes and Avalanche. Those are much tougher opponents than the Ducks. So it's a clear letdown and lookahead spot for St. Louis. It sets up an ambush situation for the home Ducks. I expect John Gibson to rebound from his worst game ever. Gibson had been playing great up until that contest. He didn't get a lot of help from his defense in that game. Even with that loss, the Ducks still rank sixth in defense. They also have the fourth-best penalty killing unit. Scoring is a major problem for Anaheim. The Ducks, though, should play extremely hard here and they have a strong defense. It's a bonus if the Blues decide to rest Jordan Binnington and go with their backup goalie. | |||||||
01-31-21 | Blues v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
The Ducks are 6-1-1 to the Under in their last eight games. It's easy to see why. They give up the sixth-fewest goals and score the fewest goals per game of any team. John Gibson was one of the hottest goalies in the league coming into Saturday's game against the Blues with a 1.87 GAA and a save percentage of .942. But Gibson had his worst performance of his career giving up three quick goals. He promptly was pulled. I expect Gibson to be back in goal and with a real chip on his shoulder. Same with the Ducks' defensemen who didn't play well either in Saturday's 6-1 loss to the Blues. Blues goalie Jordan Binnington is off to a hot start, too, for St. Louis. I'm fine going Under 5 1/2 even if Binnington is rested for this game. The Under has cashed seven of the last 10 times these teams have met. | |||||||
01-31-21 | Cavs -3 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
The Timberwolves have shown they can't function without their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns. He's going to miss his eighth straight game here due to COVID-19 protocols. Minnesota is 2-14 in its last 16 games and 2-6 ATS in its past eight contests. There's a chance the Timberwolves could be minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell, too. He's been dealing with a bruised quad. Russell played in the Timberwolves' 118-94 home loss to the 76ers, but shot just 3-of-11 from the floor in 25 minutes. Not only are the Timberwolves a fade in their present state, but the buy sign is on the Cavaliers following their 102-81 loss to the Knicks this past Friday. That was the Cavaliers' second humiliating road loss in a row. They were beaten by 38 points by the Celtics in their previous away game one week ago. The Cavaliers want to make a road statement here. They have the perfect patsy in which to make that statement. It helps, too, the Cavaliers finally are at full strength with Darius Garland and Larry Nance Jr. back in the lineup. Andre Drummond leads the NBA in rebounding and Collin Sexton is the league's 16th-leading scorer averaging 24.6 points. The Cavaliers have underrated talent. Cleveland has covered during five of its last six visits to Minnesota. | |||||||
01-31-21 | Stars +111 v. Hurricanes | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 27 m | Show | |
The Stars played their first road game of the season yesterday. It didn't go well. The Hurricanes beat them, 4-1. Dallas was outshot, 26-11. That was embarrassing. It also was a humiliation for Dallas goalie Anton Khuodobin, who had a rare bad game letting in four goals on 16 shots and getting pulled from the game. I want the Stars going for me in this rapid revenge spot. Dallas has won eight of the last 11 times as a road 'dog. The Hurricanes are playing short-handed due to COVID-19 issues. They probably also lost their starting goalie, Petr Mrazek. He was injured against the Stars and isn't likely to play here. Carolina's backup goalie is James Reimer, who I don't hold in high esteem | |||||||
01-31-21 | Bradley +1 v. Indiana State | 57-60 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Bradley is in stop-the-pain mode on a four-game losing streak after losing to Valparaiso, 91-85 in overtime, on the road Friday. The Braves and Indiana State are middle-of-the-pack teams in the Missouri Valley Conference. Bradley, though, matches up well to the Sycamores. Opponents have made 55 percent of their field goals from two-point range against Indiana State. The Braves have a go-to inside scorer in big man Elijah Childs. By contrast, Bradley has one of the better two-point defenses in the country and Indiana State gets most of its points from inside the arc. | |||||||
01-31-21 | Illinois State +19 v. Drake | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm not sure what is more impressive about Drake. Is it the Bulldogs being 15-0, or having covered each of their 13 lined games? None of this is lost on the oddsmaker. They are starting to make bettors lay a tax on the Bulldogs if they want to back them. At least that's the way I see it because this line is several points too high in my view. Illinois State should be up for this matchup. The Redbirds were taken out of the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last March by Drake, losing 75-65. The Redbirds are just 5-10 this season, 2-7 in the Missouri Valley Conference. They have the motivation and scoring to cover this inflated spread. Drake averages 82.5 points a game, which is 18th-best in the nation. Illinois State, though, puts up 74.3 points a game. | |||||||
01-30-21 | Pistons v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
The Warriors beat the Pistons in Detroit, 116-106, back on Dec. 29 achieving the victory despite not having Draymond Green, their second-best player. Golden State has improved since then with Green back in the lineup going 8-7 since defeating Detroit. The Pistons couldn't stop Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, who combined for 58 points in the win. Curry leads the NBA in 3-pointers. The Pistons rank 26th in 3-point defense. So Curry and Wiggins could be in line for big games again. Detroit upset both the 76ers and Lakers this week. Both victories came at home. The Pistons caught the 76ers minus Joel Embiid and the Lakers without Anthony Davis. This isn't to downplay the Pistons' upset wins. They were impressive. The 107-92 smashing of the Lakers came just two days ago. I doubt the Pistons play nearly that well in this spot following that hugely-satisfying home win. Detroit has lost its past three road games, including its last one to the Cavaliers, 122-107, this past Wednesday. This marks Detroit's fourth game in six days. The Warriors should be motivated after a flat performance in a 114-93 road loss to the Suns this past Thursday. Golden State has covered the past five times hosting an opponent that has a losing road record. | |||||||
01-30-21 | Avalanche v. Wild +140 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
I don't believe the Avalanche should be this big of a road favorite. Each team is 5-3. Colorado is 2-2 in its road games and has been outscored away from home. The Avalanche fattened up their statistics by sweeping two home games from the Sharks this past week. The Wild are 12-5 the last 17 times hosting Colorado. | |||||||
01-30-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue -2.5 | 62-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
Minnesota can't win on the road in the Big Ten. The Gophers haven't just lost all four of their conference away games, but they've lost by wide margins. They lost by 27 points at Illinois, by 12 at Wisconsin, by 25 at Michigan and by 15 at Iowa. Purdue is 51-9 in its last 60 Big Ten home contests. The Boilermakers, though, are coming off a rare home defeat. That was to Michigan eight days ago in their last game. Not playing for more than a week has allowed the Boilermakers to regroup and adjust to the COVID-19 absence of Sasha Stefanovic, the top 3-point shooter in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are freshmen-oriented, but they are past the inexperience stage now. Zach Edey, Mason Gillis, Brandon Newman, Jaden Ivey and Ethan Morton - all freshmen - are combining to produce nearly 40 percent of Purdue's scoring. | |||||||
01-30-21 | Islanders +110 v. Flyers | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
The Islanders, with Barry Trotz cracking the whip, should feel a lot of urgency after blowing a 3-goal lead to the Capitals in a 6-3 loss this past Thursday. It was New York's third straight defeat. Perhaps the Islands overachieved last season, but they usually prove to be a tough out. They have won in five of their last seven visits to Philadelphia. The Flyers haven't played at home since Jan. 19. They come in fat and happy having just swept the Devils this past Tuesday and Thursday. The Flyers are far from at full strength with injuries to Sean Couturier, Morgan Frost and Phil Myers. | |||||||
01-30-21 | Air Force v. San Jose State UNDER 141.5 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
These two teams just met on Thursday. There were 117 points scored in San Jose State's 59-58 home win. It was the sixth time in their last seven games the Spartans went Under the total. So what's going to change in just two days? Not enough for the total to reach as high as the oddsmaker set it. These teams play slow, especially Air Force. The Falcons are the eight-lowest scoring team in the nation averaging 59 points. San Jose State averages 66.2 points, which ranks 294th. The Spartans are likely to be missing their leading scorer, Richard Washington, again due to an undisclosed injury. He averages 20.7 points a game. The next highest scorer for San Jose State averages 11.7 points. | |||||||
01-30-21 | McNeese State +5 v. Lamar | 56-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
The points are a bonus as I believe McNeese is the superior team. Certainly the Cowboys have the better overall record being 7-9 while Lamar is 3-11. There is no doubt who has the better offense. It's not Lamar. The Cardinals average 63.6 points per game, which ranks 320th. McNeese State is the eighth-highest scoring team in the nation at 84.9 points a game. Lamar surrenders 76.9 points per contest. The Cardinals are 0-10 when they permit 66 or more points. McNeese State should have no trouble exceeding that number. | |||||||
01-30-21 | Toledo v. Bowling Green +4 | 84-66 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
Bowling Green is back home in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. Toledo is playing extremely well with wins in 11 of its last 12 games. But the Falcons play the Rockets tough. They've beaten them the past two times. The Falcons have the best player on the court in Justin Turner. He averages 20.5 points a game. Few teams average more points per game than Toledo. The Rockets put up 80.4 points. Bowling Green matches that also scoring 80.4 points and the Falcons give up an average of nearly five fewer points per game than the Rockets. | |||||||
01-30-21 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Tenn-Martin +4 | 76-60 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
When it comes to smaller conferences such as the Ohio Valley, the oddsmaker makes his line strictly by season power rankings. That sets up opportunities like this because Tennessee-Martin is showing life at home after losing nine straight games. The Skyhawks are 2-0 so far in their six-game homestand. Tennessee-Martin defeated Southeast Missouri State, 69-66, as 5 1/2-point home 'dogs and then followed that up with an impressive, 51-41, victory against Eastern Illinois as 8-point home 'dogs this past Thursday. The Skyhawks had never held a foe to that low of a total before. SIU Edwardsville had a 34-day layoff due to COVID-19 issues. This is just the Cougars' fifth game since Dec. 18. They may not be fully mentally ready after suffering a heartbreaking, 64-62, loss to Southeast Missouri State this past Thursday. The Cougars blew a 13-point second half lead. The only time they trailed in the game was the final score. The Skyhawks have won eight of their last 10 against the Cougars. | |||||||
01-30-21 | Northern Iowa v. Southern Illinois +2.5 | 74-62 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Southern Illinois is in a tailspin having lost five in a row. But the Salukis should defeat fellow Missouri Valley Conference bottom-feeder Northern Iowa at home. Note that the Salukis' last four losses have come to Drake and Indiana State. Drake is 15-0 and Indiana State is the fourth-best team in the MVC. Northern Iowa is far from that class. The Panthers are 4-10 on the season. They have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games and are 0-6 ATS during their past six away matchups. Southern Illinois has covered 13 of their last 18 home games. The Salukis outscore Northern Iowa on the season and also give up fewer points per game. | |||||||
01-29-21 | CS-Fullerton +10.5 v. CS Bakersfield | 90-84 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
I see Fullerton having enough offense to hang with Bakersfield in this Big West Conference matchup. The Titans are averaging 75.4 points per game, which is five points more than Bakersfield averages. The Roadrunners have been a good fade in this type of situation. They are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games and 2-10-1 ATS versus sub .500 foes. | |||||||
01-29-21 | Iowa +2 v. Illinois | 75-80 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
Iowa is the better team in my view and Illinois' home-court advantage doesn't make up for that. The Hawkeyes may have the best big man in the country, too, in 6-foot-11 Luka Garza. He's leading the Big Ten in scoring at 26.9 points while connecting on 61 percent of his shots from the floor. Illinois has an excellent big man, Kofi Cockburn. But Garza trumps him. The Hawkeyes enter this matchup well-rested and highly motivated having not played for eight days since an 81-69 home loss to Indiana. Iowa was a 10-point favorite in that game. Even with that defeat, the Hawkeyes still have covered 15 of their last 21 games. | |||||||
01-29-21 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks +111 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm not often looking to get involved with the Blackhawks in what is a clear rebuilding year for them. But taking a small plus price in this spot puts me on them. Columbus is coming off a 3-2 shootout victory against Florida on Thursday night. The Blue Jackets got revenge for a 4-3 shootout loss to the Panthers from Tuesday. This is their third game in four days and first road contest in 10 days. They are 1-3 on the road losing a pair to the Predators by multiple goals and splitting with the Red Wings, the worst team in hockey and a team that lost a pair of road games to the Blackhawks earlier this week by a combined seven goals. Chicago is 2-0 at home with the victories against Detroit. This is just the Blackhawks' third home game. They have shown improvement. Their last two games were 1-goal road losses to the Predators in overtime and in a shootout. The Blackhawks' young players are showing some potential and Chicago has found a goalie who has been looking good - Kevin Lankinen. He has a .931 save percentage. The Blackhawks are 10-2 the past 12 times hosting the Blue Jackets. | |||||||
01-29-21 | Pacers v. Hornets +3.5 | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
I quickly glance past those rare sports when the Hornets are favored. But when they are underdogs, I take notice. Charlotte is one of those NBA teams nobody cares about, or respects, but can earn you money in the right spot. That spot is taking points. They are 14-5-1 ATS the past 20 times as underdogs. This is short revenge for the Hornets. They lost 116-106 as 3-point home 'dogs to the Pacers two days ago. Charlotte shot 41 percent from the floor in that defeat. Indiana made 51 percent of its field goals. Doug McDermott had a monster game for Indiana shooting 12-of-22 from the field while scoring 28 points. That was unexpected. McDermott averages 13 points and is a career 46.7 percent shooter from the floor. | |||||||
01-29-21 | Hawks v. Wizards +4 | 116-100 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
I don't trust the Hawks as road favorites. The Wizards finally are getting up to speed physically with Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura and Moritz Wagner all coming off COVID-19 protocols. Russell Westbrook also is ready after being rested during the Wizards' 124-106 road loss to the Pelicans this past Wednesday. Star guard Bradley Beal expressed his disappointment and anger with that defeat, which was Washington's third loss in a row and dropped its record to 3-11. That's the worst mark in the NBA and an embarrassment for the Wizards. I'm expecting an all-out effort from the Wizards, who haven't hosted a game since Jan. 11 when they upset the Suns, 128-107. Hachimura is an underrated key for Washington. The Wizards are 3-3 in games he has played. The Hawks just got through playing the Bucks, beating the Clippers at home and taking the Nets to overtime in a home loss this past Wednesday. After this road contest, the Hawks return home to take on the Lakers in their biggest Western Conference opponent matchup. The Hawks aren't nearly good enough to cover this spread if they don't produce a solid game, or if they suffer a letdown. Historically, Atlanta has not been good in this spot going 5-12-2 ATS the last 19 times when facing a foe with a winning percentage below .400. | |||||||
01-29-21 | Stetson v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 136.5 | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
Florida Gulf Coast is averaging only 64.5 points in its last four games. Stetson is giving up just 66.2 points during its last five games. The Hatters are not an up-tempo team, which is fine with Florida Gulf Coast. Neither offense is dynamic. Stetson ranks 288th in scoring averaging 66.5 points a game, while the Eagles rank 183rd in scoring at 71.9 points. They've held their last four foes to an aveage of 64.5 points. Given the current defensive form of both teams - and lack of tempo and big scoring - look for this one to go Under the total. | |||||||
01-29-21 | Monmouth -3.5 v. Niagara | 77-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Monmouth is on a 7-2-1 ATS run. The Hawks have won and covered their last four games. Power rating-wise, this game opened too short in my view. The Hawks have given up 64 points or fewer in three of their last four games. Niagara hasn't been playing as well losing three of its last four games while failing to cover in three of its past four games. Monmouth has a far stronger offense, outscoring Niagara by an average of 16 points per game. So I'm going to go ahead and lay what I believe is a value number. | |||||||
01-28-21 | California v. Arizona State -7.5 | 68-72 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm seeing a buy sign on Arizona State in this spot as the Sun Devils hopefully are past their COVID-19 issues that have pushed their season off track. Back in early December, the Sun Devils traveled to Berkley, Calif., and defeated California, 70-62, as 6 1/2-point favorites. ASU's star guard Remy Martin scored 22 points in that game. Since that matchup, however, the Sun Devils had four postponements and one cancellation due to the pandemic. They are just rounding into shape. Arizona State threw a scare into 12-3 Arizona last Thursday losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer. This is a massive circle-the-wagons game for the Sun Devils, who have dropped six in a row. California has failed to cover in 15 of its last 20 road contests. I see this as the spot where Arizona State gets right. | |||||||
01-28-21 | Sharks v. Avalanche OVER 6 | 0-3 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
San Jose can score. The Sharks have demonstrated that in producing at least three goals in five of their seven games. However, that's negated by the Sharks ranking 30th defensively allowing an average of four goals per game. The Sharks have permitted three or more goals in all but one of their seven games. Included in that is a 7-3 Colorado victory against San Jose at home two days ago. The Avalanche have scored 15 goals during their last two games. The Sharks are playing for the fourth time in seven days. They aren't helped playing again in Denver's high altitude. High altitude could be a reason why the Over has won seven of the past eight times in Colorado home games. This series has an Over bias, too, with the high side going 19-7-3 the last 29 times. | |||||||
01-28-21 | Morehead State v. Jacksonville State -4.5 | 85-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm going to step in against Morehead State, which has won seven in a row. I don't trust the Eagles' offense on the road. Morehead State ranks 295th in scoring at 65.6 points a game. Jacksonville State averages nine points more per game than Morehead State. The Gamecocks also have been playing well defeating Murray State and Austin Peay in their last two games. Both of those were road contests and the Gamecocks were underdogs. The Gamecocks are averaging 84 points during their last three games. The teams met on Jan. 9 and Morehead State escaped with a 56-55 win as a 3-point home 'dog. Jacksonville State shot just 33 percent from the floor in that game while missing 17 of 23 shots from beyond the arc. Morehead State shot 40 percent from the floor in its narrow win. So the Gamecocks have revenge as added incentive. | |||||||
01-28-21 | Islanders -132 v. Capitals | 3-6 | Loss | -132 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Much credit to the short-handed Capitals for pulling out a 3-2 victory against the Islanders on Tuesday scoring the game-winner with 26 seconds left. New York had won seven straight at Washington previous to that game. I'm looking for a bounce back from the Islanders, who blew a 2-1 second period lead against the Capitals. The Islanders' loss did not sit well with their coach, Barry Trotz. He formerly coached the Capitals and is one of the best coaches in the NHL. The Capitals managed to beat the usually well-disciplined Islanders despite missing Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuzntesov, Dmitry Orlov and starting goalie Ilya Samsonov. They are all on the COVID-19 protocol list. Enforcer Tom Wilson also missed the game with a lower-body injury. Then during the game, the Capitals lost forward Nicklas Backstrom. I'd be very surprised if the Capitals manage to beat the Islanders again without so many key players. | |||||||
01-28-21 | Panthers v. Blue Jackets -108 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
Scoring a game-tying goal with three seconds left, Florida went on to beat the Blue Jackets, 4-3 in a shootout, two days ago in Columbus. The Panthers outplayed the Blue Jackets and deserved to pull out that win. But I see the Blue Jackets getting their revenge here. They've defeated Florida 14 of the last 17 times at home even with that Tuesday defeat. Columbus may have suffered a letdown in that loss to the Panthers. The Blue Jackets had upset defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay by three goals in their previous game, which also was at home. This will be just the Panthers' fourth game. They are 3-0, but their first two victories occurred at home against the Blackhawks. Note, too, that Florida backup goalie Chris Driedger is expected to be in net. | |||||||
01-27-21 | Utah State -6 v. UNLV | Top | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
Utah State has the second-best league record in the Mountain West Conference at 9-2. The Aggies have covered nine of their past 11 games. But one of those losses and non-covers occurred two days ago against UNLV. The Aggies didn't play well and lost, 59-56, as six-point road favorites to the Rebels. Now Utah State has rapid revenge. UNLV has a short bench. The Rebels primarily use just six players. They had four players log 34 minutes or more in their Monday victory against Utah State. The Aggies should dominate the boards with 7-footer Neemius Queta, one of the best defensive centers in the country. Utah State ranks 15th in the country in defense holding foes to 61 points a game. Neither team shot well on Monday. But the Aggies' numbers were stunningly bad - 33 percent from the floor and just 5-of-22 from 3-point range. UNLV, by contrast, hit 13 of 30 3-pointers. Expect Utah State to play much better. | |||||||
01-27-21 | Senators v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
Well the oddsmaker wised up a little when it comes to these two teams. The opening totals number was 6 when the Senators and Canucks met two days ago. The Canucks won that game, 7-1, so now the total opens at 6 1/2 with juice to the Under. Until proven otherwise, I'm going to ride the Over with these two teams in their rematch today. These are the two worst defenses in the NHL. Ottawa surrenders 4.5 goals per game. Vancouver gives up 4.25 goals a game. The Canucks broke out of their scoring slump against the defenseless Senators. The Senators are promising changes. So what? They haven't stopped any team all season. There have been seven or more goals scored in four of Ottawa's six games. The Over is 7-1 in Vancouver's games this season. Until holding Ottawa to one goal, the Canucks had permitted at least three goals in every game. The Over has cashed in each of the last five games between these teams. I see no reason to change course especially since the total hasn't reached 7. | |||||||
01-27-21 | Nets v. Hawks UNDER 239 | Top | 132-128 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is a big totals number. Perhaps, on the surface, it may be justified. But a lot has to go right for the Over to cash. I believe the marketplace, whose early money has been on the Over, is wrong to bet this one up. James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are learning to play together. Harden and Irving are still rounding into shape. There were just 183 points scored in the Nets' last game, a 98-85 win against the Heat two days ago. The Heat did have numerous people out, including Jimmy Butler. Still, holding any NBA team to 85 points is impressive. There were 207 points produced in the Hawks' last game, a 108-99 Atlanta victory against the Clippers last night. LA was minus Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Hawks, though, have been in excellent defensive form recently thanks to big men Clint Capela and John Collins. If you discount a 129-115 loss to the Bucks, the Hawks have held their last four opponents to an average of 100 points. Atlanta ranks No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage - so Harden could be in for a rough shooting night - and has the third-best defensive field goal percentage in the league. | |||||||
01-26-21 | Sharks v. Avalanche -1.5 | 3-7 | Win | 113 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
The last time the Avalanche were home they buried the Blues, 8-0. Now I don't expect Colorado to beat San Jose by eight goals, but I do believe the Avalanche will win this game by multiple goals. Colorado fell 3-1 on the road to the Ducks this past Sunday. That was a frustrating defeat for the Avalanche, who outshot Anaheim, 33-15, while running into hot goalie John Gibson. Now the Avalanche drop way down defensively in class hosting San Jose. The Sharks rank 27th defensively. This is their fourth game in six days so they have a heavy fatigue factor, which further erodes an already weak defense. San Jose has dropped eight of its 11 road contests even after upsetting Minnesota this past Sunday. | |||||||
01-26-21 | Wizards v. Rockets -3.5 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
The Rockets are far from elite since they no longer have James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul. They may not even make the playoffs. But they still are a couple of levels higher than the Wizards especially given Washington's COVID-19 troubles. This is just the rusty Wizards' second game since Jan. 11 because of COVID issues. They were blown out by the Spurs, 121-101, two days ago in their last game. The 3-9 Wizards could be down four rotation players. They have new faces and haven't had nearly the needed practice time. This is a big motivation game for John Wall against his former team. He's not going to let the Rockets get lazy in this matchup. DeMarcus Cousins is coming off a monster 28-point, 17-rebound game against the Mavericks in a 133-108 victory. That was on Saturday. So the Rockets should be rested and prepared. It's an added bonus if Christian Wood is able to play for Houston. He's questionable with an ankle injury. | |||||||
01-26-21 | Islanders -129 v. Capitals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -129 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Surprised the Islanders are a mid-sized road favorite against the Capitals? Shouldn't be because the spot and situation set up well for New York. The Islanders enter this two-game series off a 2-0 loss to the Devils this past Sunday. Islanders coach Barry Trotz was not happy about that defeat and he let his team know about it. Trotz should have his squad ready and fired-up to play his former team. So I'm expecting an all-out effort from the Islanders. The Capitals are 0-7 the past seven times they've hosted the patient and defensive-minded Islanders, a team that has frustrated them with their style. The Islanders are strong again defensively ranking third in fewest goals allowed per game and fourth in penalty kill. Washington is highly vulnerable right now with Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dimitry Orlov and starting goalie Ilya Samsonov all on the COVID-19 list. In addition, enforcer Tom Wilson is likely out, too, because of a lower body injury. The Capitals have managed three victories because they've played four of their six games against the Sabres. They are 3-1 versus Buffalo. Their other two games were losses to the Penguins. | |||||||
01-25-21 | Arizona State v. Arizona -4.5 | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
Arizona State has been a major disappointment in the Pac-12 with a 1-4 league mark and 4-7 overall record. Much of this can be blamed on COVID-19. The pandemic has played havoc with the Sun Devils' schedule causing four postponements and one cancellation. The Sun Devils, though, were up for this past Thursday's game against in-state and conference rival Arizona. They led the Wildcats by six points with 3:40 left before losing, 84-82, on a tip-in at the buzzer as 2 1/2-point home 'dogs. Now the scene shifts to Tucson where Arizona gets to host Arizona State. The Wildcats took the Sun Devils' best punch. Arizona State wasn't happy about the officiating, but it got to shoot 12 more free throws than Arizona. The Sun Devils also made 11 of 21 3-point shots for 52 percent. Arizona also shot well from beyond the arc. But the Wildcats are much more proficient from 3-point range than the Sun Devils, who shoot 33.2 percent from there. The Wildcats are the superior team. They are 11-3 overall and 5-3 in the Pac-12. I don't see Arizona letting an 11-point lead slip like it did in the last meeting. I also don't envision the Sun Devils playing as well as they did on Thursday. ASU is 1-8 ATS following a loss and this last one was very tough to take. The Sun Devils also are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven road contests. | |||||||
01-25-21 | Senators v. Canucks OVER 6 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
I'm very surprised this total opened at 6 with juice instead of 6 1/2 or even 7 given the low quality of these defenses. Ottawa ranks 29th defensively giving up 4.0 goals a game. Vancouver is even worse. The Canucks surrender an NHL-high 4.7 goals per game. They also allow the second-most shots on goal. Vancouver has given up an average of five goals a game during its past six games. The good news for the Canucks is they have young, talented goal scorers. One of these is Elias Pettersson, who is starting to emerge out of an early-season scoring slump. The Canucks should get their share of goals against an Ottawa squad that just surrendered four goals in the third period during its last game, a 6-3 road loss to the Jets this past Saturday. The Senators have permitted at least three goals in all five of their games. Goalie Matt Murray has not looked good in the early going. The Over has cashed during the past four meetings between the two teams. That trend should continue as I'm expecting a loose game from two teams with a combined 3-9 record. | |||||||
01-25-21 | Lakers v. Cavs +10.5 | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
The Lakers haven't let their championship get to their heads. They are 13-4, tied with the Clippers for the best record in the NBA. LA has yet to lose on the road in nine away games. But this is the right spot to step in against the Lakers with the improved Cavaliers. LA is in the third game of a seven-game road swing. The Lakers beat the Bucks, 113-106, this past Thursday and followed that up with a 101-90 victory against the Bulls this past Saturday. Up next for the Lakers is a major challenge on Wednesday - the 76ers. They have the best record in the Eastern Conference at 12-5. So the Lakers are in-between a letdown spot and a look-ahead spot - all while laying double-digits. The Cavaliers suffered their own letdown on Sunday getting blasted, 141-103, by the Celtics in Boston. Cleveland entered that matchup having won three in a row, including consecutive victories against James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the rest of the Nets. Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff pulled his starters early in the Boston debacle. None of the Cavaliers' key players - Andre Drummond, Collin Sexton, Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman - logged more than 18 minutes in the Celtics loss. They should be highly motivated for this matchup, especially welcoming LeBron James back to Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 5-2 SU and ATS as home 'dogs this season. They are 8-8 on the season, yet hold little respect in the marketplace. They've upset the Nets twice and the 76ers. They can hang at home against the Lakers. | |||||||
01-24-21 | Cavs v. Celtics -5.5 | 103-141 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Nice job so far by J.B. Bickerstaff making the Cavaliers competitive this season. I will really tip my hat to Bickerstaff, though, if his Cavaliers can hang close in this matchup. Cleveland is riding high with a season-best three-game win streak with the last two victories coming against the Nets. Boston, on the other hand, is in circle-the-wagons mode with a season-worst three-game losing streak. This losing streak has coincided with the absence of Jayson Tatum due to COVID-19. There's a chance Boston gets Tatum back for this game. But if that doesn't happen, I still like the Celtics to cover this spread. Zero chance Boston takes Cleveland for granted even though it has won the past eight meetings while going 6-2 ATS the past eight times hosting the Cavaliers. There's a great deal of urgency for the Celtics not only to halt their losing skid, but also knowing they play seven of their next eight games on the road, including five games on the West Coast. | |||||||
01-24-21 | Valparaiso v. Illinois State -115 | 70-66 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm looking for Illinois State to get revenge on Valparaiso after the Crusader upset Illinois State, 69-60, as 2-point road 'dogs on Saturday. The Redbirds suffered a letdown having upset Bradley at home during their previous game. Illinois holds a backcourt edge and should shoot more than 10 free throws, which was their Saturday total. The Redbirds also should make more than seven 3-pointers. They rank 29th in the country in 3-point shooting accuracy. The Crusaders had failed to cover in six straight games until upsetting Illinois State. | |||||||
01-24-21 | Maple Leafs v. Flames -113 | 3-2 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a nice situational spot for the Flames. After sweeping the Canucks in two home games by a combined, 8-2, the Flames have been idle since Monday. That's given them plenty of time to practice, get fully in sync and be prepared for this matchup. The Maple Leafs will be playing for the sixth time in 10 days. They are coming off a 4-2 home win against the Oilers on Friday night despite being short-handed minus Auston Matthews and Joe Thornton, who is out for around a month. Matthews, the Maple Leafs' best player, is questionable due to an upper body injury. I like Calgary goalie Jacob Markstrom more than Toronto's Frederik Andersen, who is too inconsistent for my taste. Markstrom has been sharp early with a 1.99 GAA and .935 save percentage in three games. The Flames have won nine of the last 11 times they've been favored, while the Maple Leafs are 6-14 the last 20 times as underdogs. | |||||||
01-24-21 | Bucs +4 v. Packers | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 132 h 24 m | Show |
If there is one NFC team that matches up well to Green Bay and can beat the Packers it's the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay proved that back in Week 6 when it took apart the Packers, 38-10. The Buccaneers shut out the Packers for the final three quarters. It was Green Bay's worst game of the season by far. So what's happened since then? The Packers' defense has improved and Aaron Rodgers put that game behind him to have one of the most magnificent seasons in NFL history. The Packers have the league's No. 1 scoring offense, a good defense and home-field where the weather forecast is for temperatures in the 20s and around a 40 percent chance of snow. But the Buccaneers also have improved. They, too, are peaking at the right time. Tom Brady is in sync with his new offense and receivers. Davonte Adams gives Rodgers the best receiver on the field. But Brady has the four next best receivers with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski. Shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander can only lock up on one of Tampa Bay's trio of excellent wideouts. Tampa Bay has won six in a row. The Bucs haven't lost by more than a field goal in their last nine games. Cold January weather doesn't bother Brady. He's certainly experienced it. Tampa Bay is averaging 36.6 points in its last five games. The Buccaneers put up 30 and 31 points in their playoff victories against two outstanding defensive teams, Washington and New Orleans. Green Bay's defense had just 11 interceptions. The Buccaneers picked off Drew Brees three times last Sunday. The Buccaneers led the NFL in run defense holding foes to 80.6 rushing yards per game, 10 yards fewer than the NFL's second-best run defense, and now they could get back star nose tackle Vita Vea from injured reserve. He's expected to practice this week. The Packers couldn't run on Tampa Bay in their earlier meeting. Aaron Jones was held to 15 yards on 10 carries. Inside linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David also make this a tough game for Green Bay. Those two not only can pressure the quarterback, but they are outstanding in pass coverage. They were dominant in Tampa Bay's victory against the Packers. Not to take anything away from Green Bay's smashing win against the Rams last week, but Aaron Donald only was about 50 percent because of a rib injury. The Packers didn't even need to double team him. The Packers have proven vulnerable to power run teams. The 49ers exploited that weakness in the NFC title game last season and the Colts had that going for them in their victory against the Packers this season. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette give the Buccaneers a pair of power runners and provide Brady with needed balance. While the Buccaneers have some of the best linebackers in the NFL, the Packers' linebackers are composed of free agents and middle-to-late round draft picks. Then there are special teams. Thus far the Packers have been able to cover up their weak punt and punt return teams. Green Bay ranks 30th in net punt average and 31st in punt returns. They also have a bad long snapper. These are areas that could bite the Packers now that they are playing their toughest opponents. | |||||||
01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers OVER 51.5 | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 50 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a shootout. These team's offenses trump their defenses. Tampa Bay produced 38 points on the Packers in their Week 6 matchup - and its offense has gotten better and more diversified since then. Tom Brady has the savvy and weapons to take advantage of the Packers' inexperienced linebackers and lack of depth in the secondary. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette not only provide Brady with reliable short-yardage running backs, but they set him up well for play-action. Green Bay doesn't have enough quality defensive backs to handle Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. The Packers also have extremely weak punt coverage so the Buccaneers should be operating in good field position. Not that the Buccaneers are going to be receiving many punts because I also see the Packers producing far more points than the 10 they managed in their 38-10 Week 6 loss to Tampa Bay. Green Bay led the NFL in scoring. That Week 6 game was the only time their offense was held in check. Aaron Rodgers is as great mentally as he is physically. The Packers have made many adjustments since that loss. Their offense is in peak form. The Buccaneers love to blitz. That's the signature of their aggressive defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Rodgers is a master at reading the blitz. It's actually good for Rodgers that he's played the Bucs this season. He'll know what to expect. Green Bay's offensive line is playing better since that game even without injured star left tackle David Bakhitari. Blitzing isn't going to hide the Buccaneers' warts in their secondary that Rodgers will expose. The Packers took apart the Rams' No. 1 defense last week. Green Bay's offense is too in sync to be slowed down at this late stage especially given the Hall of Fame form Rodgers is in now. | |||||||
01-23-21 | Kings v. Blues -1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 145 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
The Kings have opened with four tough games, two of which went into overtime. After hosting the Wild twice and Avalanche twice, the Kings take to the road for the first time this season. The road has not been kind to the Kings. They have lost 41 of their past 58 away contests. This is LA's third game, too, in five days. The Blues have been idle since Wednesday when they lost 2-1 at home to the Sharks in a shootout. The Blues are rested and anxious to put that defeat behind them. It's a bad spot for the Kings, fresh off their first win, 4-2, against Colorado two days ago. I can see the Blues winning by multiple goals. | |||||||
01-23-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +7 | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Impressive. That's the word coming to mind in reviewing how the 76ers beat the Celtics this past Wednesday and Friday. Both of those 76ers' victories came in Philadelphia. Now the 76ers travel to Detroit to face the Pistons in an obvious letdown spot. Philadelphia is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The 76ers were 12-26 SU on the road last season. They are 2-4 SU and ATS away from home this season with road losses to the Grizzlies and Hawks in their past two away games. The Pistons are hungry for a victory after blowing a 17-point lead against the Hawks this past Wednesday in an overtime loss and then falling by one point, 103-102, to the Rockets this past Friday. Detroit is capable of pulling the straight-up upset having already defeated the Heat, Celtics and much-improved Suns this season. This is the 76ers' third game in four days. So they might choose to rest, or limit, the minutes of superstar center Joel Embiid. Philadelphia is 15-34-2 (31 percent) in its last 51 away contests. | |||||||
01-23-21 | St. Mary's +3 v. San Francisco | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
This has been a down season for St. Mary's, but the Gaels still are playing their trademark tough defense. Only 20 teams give up fewer points per game than St. Mary's, which surrenders an average of 61.8. The Gaels have owned San Francisco winning eight of the last 10 meetings, including the past three. The buy sign is back on the Gaels after they halted a three-game losing streak with a victory against Loyola-Marymount this past Thursday. Note that two of St. Mary's losses during this span occurred to BYU and top-ranked Gonzaga. St. Mary's is 13-5 ATS against opponents with a winning home mark. The Dons are coming off a blowout victory against Santa Clara. They are 0-5 ATS the past five times following a win. | |||||||
01-23-21 | McNeese State +3 v. Houston Baptist | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
I see the wrong team being favored in this Southland Conference matchup. McNeese State is 6-8. The Cowboys are senior dominated. They rank seventh in the nation in scoring at 86.9, which is 14 points more per game than Houston Baptiste, which averages 72.5 points. Houston Baptiste is 2-11. The Huskies are 1-7 in their last eight games with their lone victory during this time frame coming in overtime. They are 7-18-1 ATS in their past 26 home games. | |||||||
01-23-21 | West Virginia v. Kansas State +11.5 | 69-47 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Kansas State hasn't been very good this season, but the Wildcats are getting healthier and they catch West Virginia at home at an opportunistic time. The Mountaineers haven't played in two weeks due to COVID-19 issues. They missed games against Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State. They've also had to miss a lot of practice time. West Virginia hasn't been a good road team either covering only three of its past 12 away matchups. | |||||||
01-23-21 | Kansas -1 v. Oklahoma | 68-75 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Usually you pay a premium in order to back Kansas. Not this time, though. The marketplace is a little down on the Jayhawks because they've lost two in a row for the first time in two seasons. Those losses, though, came to second-ranked Baylor and to Oklahoma State, which is close to being a Top-25 team. Both defeats came on the road. This is a circle-the-wagons game for Kansas and the Jayhawks hold a big talent edge on Oklahoma. The Sooners have won two straight. Those were home victories against Kansas State and TCU. Those teams, along with Iowa State, have the worst conference records in the Big 12. The last time Oklahoma met an above .500 conference opponent was Kansas on Jan. 9. The Jayhawks shot poorly from 3-point range and the free throw line yet still beat Oklahoma, 63-59, although failing to cover as seven-point home favorites. Now the Jayhawks are basically being asked to just win the game in order to get the money. Kansas has covered 69 percent of the time during their past 67 games following a loss. They also are 11-1 ATS in their past 12 road contests versus an opponent with a winning home mark. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Thunder +13.5 v. Clippers | 106-120 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
The Clippers are on a great roll winning five in a row with the last three coming in blowout fashion - victories by at least 19 points. It's difficult for the Clippers to keep doing that especially when teams seem to take rest stops in pacing themselves for the long season and playoffs. Oklahoma City is at its best in this role as a road 'dog. The Thunder are 22-8 the past 30 times taking points on the road. This includes a 5-2 ATS mark in that role this season with straight-up victories versus the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans. The Thunder are off a terrible performance in a 119-101 road loss to Denver, however. That was on Tuesday. So they've had two full days to prepare for this one and get their respect back. The Thunder should have plenty of energy since this is only their third game in eight days. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder's best player. He'll have added motivation going against the Clippers, his former team. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes +148 | 2-5 | Win | 148 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
Las Vegas heads off for its first road trip fat and happy at 4-0, its best start in franchise-history. The Golden Knights play two games against the Coyotes in Arizona before returning back to Las Vegas for a stretch of eight home contests in 10 games. The Golden Knights just swept the Coyotes in Las Vegas. The Coyotes aren't going to lack motivation in this short revenge spot. The Golden Knights not only could be in for a letdown, but also their concentration may be lacking. This is their first time away from home and they have to follow COVID-19 protocols. It's going to be a different experience. Buried by seven penalties, the Coyotes fell behind the Golden Knights early in their 5-2 loss this past Wednesday. I'm expecting the Coyotes to play much better today under favorable situational elements. | |||||||
01-22-21 | San Diego State v. Air Force UNDER 127.5 | Top | 98-61 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
Not only are these two defensive-minded teams, but they also rank first and second in terms of slowest pace in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is an upper tier defensive team ranking 12th in the country, giving up 60.7 points per game. Air Force ranks among the bottom teams scoring-wise at 58.9 points. The Falcons have failed to reach 60 points in four of their last six games. They rate 342nd in the nation in scoring. Air Force catches a break in that San Diego State won't have their leading scorer, senior Matt Mitchell. He has a knee injury and won't play for at least another week. MItchell averages 15.3 points, the only Aztec player to average more than 13 points. MItchell had played in 114 out of a possible 114 games for the Aztecs before his injury. His likely replacement is Keshad Johnson, who recently returned from a shoulder injury and averages only 3.2 points. There are several pertinent Under trends that dovetail together - The Under is 7-1 the last eight times San Diego State has played a sub .500 opponent and the Under is 22-7 the past 29 times Air Force has met a team with a winning record. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Red Wings +115 v. Blackhawks | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
Detroit looks improved. Chicago looks horrible. No fans either for the Blackhawks so their home ice is largely negated. This combination lands me on the Red Wings. Detroit is 2-2. If it weren't for a one-goal loss to the Blue Jackets they would be riding a three-game winning streak. Detroit's confidence is up and its puck control has been much better. Jonathan Bernier and Thomas Greiss have played well in net. It's become very evident this is a rebuild year for the Blackhawk - and a big one at that. The Blackhawks are going with a massive youth movement. They miss the leadership and skill set of veteran captain Jonathan Toews and defenseman Brent Seabrook. The Blackhawks have surrendered five goals in each of their four games this season in going 0-4 versus Tampa Bay and Florida. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Red Wings v. Blackhawks OVER 6 | 1-4 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks have played four games. They've allowed five goals in every one of their games. Their defense is littered with inexperienced players and their three goalies have all been terrible. The Red Wings, led by Dylan Larkin, are improved offensively. Chicago prefers to play up-tempo trying to win that way. The Blackhawks had the misfortune of playing their opening two games against Tampa Bay. Their offense has picked up since then producing six goals in the last two games against Florida. Chicago averaged 33 shots on net versus the Panthers. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Heat v. Raptors -2.5 | 81-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm going to play the Zig/Zag theory here after the Heat snapped Toronto's three-game winning streak with a 111-102 win two days ago. Miami has yet to string two straight covers together this season. They are 0-6 ATS following a point spread cover. The Raptors have short revenge and they face two games on the road against the Pacers after this one. The Heat remain short-handed minus Jimmy Butler, defensive ace Avery Bradley and reserve big man Meyers Leonard. They also could be without Tyler Herro, who has been bothered by a neck injury. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Celtics +5 v. 76ers | 110-122 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
I like the Celtics in this spot even if Jayson Tatum remains out due to COVID-19 protocols. It's a nice bonus if he's able to play. This is a monster rivalry. So my inclination is to grab the points. That's especially so in the case of the Celtics, who are 22-7 ATS the past 29 times as underdogs. Boston is this big of a 'dog because the 76ers are home and just defeated the Celtics, 117-109, this past Wednesday. The 76ers made 36 of 45 free throws in that game. Boston was 13 of 20 from the foul line. The Celtics were not happy with that free throw disparity. Joel Embiid shot more free throws than Boston did as a team. Embiid had a monster performance with 42 points and 10 rebounds. He's a great player. But the Celtics have the center depth and astute coaching of Brad Stevens to make adjustments. One bright spot for Boston in the loss to the 76ers was Kemba Walker looking good in his second game back from a knee injury. He scored 19 points and had good leg movement. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Rangers v. Penguins OVER 6.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
The Rangers are averaging just 2.5 goals in their first three games. Ryan Strome and Alexis Lafreniere, the first overall pick in the draft, are off to slow starts. Neither has produced a single point yet. That's going to change. It could happen here against the Penguins, who are giving up 4.7 goals a game. Things don't figure to immediately improve for the Penguins defense either. Pittsburgh has a cluster blue line problem with only three healthy defensemen. The Penguins are going to be forced to use inexperienced players and low quality veterans to fill defensive positions. Their plight isn't helped by poor goalie play. The Rangers' net play has been spotty, too. The Penguins have scored three or more goals in three of their four games. The Over is 9-1-1 the last 11 times the two teams have played in Pittsburgh. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Oilers v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
I had the Over when these two teams met two days ago. The final in that one was Edmonton 3, Toronto 1. I was caught off guard by how the Oilers and Maple Leafs changed their games around for that matchup. The Oilers basically went into a defensive shell. They were determined to prove they could play defense. Preventing goals and not feeding off Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were the Oilers' priorities in Wednesday's game. Boring, but it worked. So I don't expect the Oilers to deviate from that game plan. Toronto has used a defensive-heavy makeup to its roster. The Maple Leafs' offense is overrated right now averaging 2.5 goals in their last four games. Auston Matthews is their most dynamic scorer and he's questionable. Veteran Joe Thornton is out. The Oilers managed just 21 shots against Toronto in their Wednesday game. Lesson learned from the last meeting. Lesson now applied here. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas-Arlington OVER 144.5 | 66-59 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
Arkansas-Little Rock has been a strong Over team. The Over has cashed in 74 percent of its last 34 games. The Trojans have gone Over in eight of their last nine road contests. Arkansas-Little Rock just played two games against Texas State, which has the 40th-best defense in the nation. Before meeting Texas State, the Trojans had scored at least 75 points in eight of their last nine games. Now Little Rock is stepping way down in defensive class. UT-Arlington is a much weaker defensive team than Texas State. The Mavericks are all about a fast tempo and high scoring. They average 79.2 points and play faster than any other Sun Belt Conference team. The Mavericks have produced a minimum of 75 points in seven of their last nine games. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Merrimack UNDER 138 | 71-76 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 60 m | Show | |
These two teams just played on Thursday. Merrimack won, 62-51. That's a combined score of 113 points. Fairleigh Dickinson shot 32 percent from the floor displaying trouble handling Merrimack's zone defense. The Knights are likely to struggle with their shooting again with no time to adjust and ranking 245th in the country in scoring. Merrimack is no whiz offensively either. The Warriors rank 293rd in scoring and are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. They are 13-3-1 to the Under following a victory. | |||||||
01-21-21 | Avalanche v. Kings OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
Colorado has poured in 11 goals in its last two games. The Kings have given up three goals in regulation in all three of their games. LA doesn't have the speed to keep up with the Avalanche and lacks the skills to slow down Colorado without committing penalties. The Kings are averaging the most minor penalties in the league with a 5.3 average. The Avalanche could have the top power play unit in hockey with Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Gabriel Landeskog. They've scored eight goals in 17 power play attempts this season. | |||||||
01-21-21 | Eastern Washington -3.5 v. Northern Colorado | 76-78 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
Look for a strong bounce back from Eastern Washington after it lost 99-94 to Southern Utah as 5-point home favorites this past Saturday. The Eagles are in the argument for being the best team in the Big Sky Conference. Northern Colorado has failed to step up at home losing to Montana State and Idaho. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their lined home games this season. One factor for this could be extremely limited seat capacity, which negates some of their home-court edge. Eastern Washington has a balanced scoring attack with four players averaging between 11 and 16 points a game. The Eagles outscore the Bears by an average of nearly six points per game. The Eagles also have covered seven of their past eight away contests. | |||||||
01-21-21 | Montana v. CS Sacramento OVER 119.5 | 78-66 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
The Big Sky is an offensive-minded conference. Montana and Sacramento State are the exceptions. These two teams are about defense. But the oddsmaker has set this total too low. It's the lowest total of the season by far for Montana and also the lowest Over/Under for Sacramento State. The Grizzlies have reached at least 62 points in nine of their 12 games. They've allowed at least 62 in eight of those contests. Sacramento State has a solid scoring threat in Ethan Esposito, who averages 16.9 points while hitting 51.2 percent of his shots. If you toss out a 65-43 loss to St. Mary's, the Hornets are averaging 77 points on the season. | |||||||
01-21-21 | Flyers v. Bruins -130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
Their defense has been there for the Bruins despite losing two of their first three games. Boston has permitted only five goals in three games. The Bruins very well could be 3-0 and we'd be seeing a much higher price. Boston was nipped, 2-1 in overtime, by the host Devils and fell 1-0 to the Islanders on the road in which they outshot New York, 27-17, during their past two games. I don't see Boston losing a third game in a row especially now that it gets to play its first home game. The Bruins' offense will come around even without injured David Pastrnak. I believe that happens here. Flyers goalie Carter Hart is off to a slow start with a 3.66 goals against average. The Flyers are short-handed on the blue line, too. Philadelphia went 1-1 in its last two games both against the Sabres. Buffalo outshot Philadelphia, 77-52, in those two games. | |||||||
01-21-21 | Devils v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
The Islanders have been idle since Monday. The Islanders will use that energy for defense and checking because that is their makeup. It's only been three games, but the Islanders have shown their consistency. They've scored five goals in three games and given up five goals in three games. There hasn't been more than five goals total scored during each of their first three games with all three games going Under. Both teams have hot goalies. Semyon Varlamov has shutouts in his two starts, while the Devils' Mackenzie Blackwood has a 1.90 goals against average with 109 stops on 115 shots. New Jersey has allowed just seven goals in its three games. | |||||||
01-21-21 | Wichita State +3 v. Memphis | 52-72 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
Memphis has played just once since Dec. 29 and it lost, 58-57, to Tulsa this past Sunday. The Tigers have outstanding talent, but I'm far from sold on the coaching of Penny Hardaway. Memphis has failed to cover in its last seven games. Memphis was thought to be among the top two teams in the American Athletic Conference before the season, but the Tigers are 6-5 and 2-2 in league. Wichita State is 8-3 and 4-1 in the AAC. The Shockers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games and have a tremendous ATS road mark going 19-7-1 in their past 27 away contests. They have the perimeter defense to pull the outright upset ranking 12th in the nation in 3-point defense and they also rank in the top 20 in defensive field goal percentage. | |||||||
01-21-21 | San Jose State v. New Mexico -6 | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
First, note this game is being played at Dixie State University in St. George, Utah. So technically it's not a true home game for New Mexico. The Lobos have been forced to travel and settle in various locations such as Las Vegas, Lubbock, Texas and St. George - their current home away from home - so they are far more familiar with this setting than San Jose State. Games are not being allowed in New Mexico due to COVID-19. All of this has made for a frustrating season for the 4-8 Lobos, who are 0-8 in the Mountain West Conference. Now, though, the Lobos draw a patsy in which to vent their frustrations. San Jose State is 2-10 and also 0-8 in the MWC. The Spartans turned around their football woes, but not their basketball ones. If you had gone against the Spartans in their last 60 games you would be winning at a 68 percent rate. New Mexico has been very good in this role going 7-1 ATS the past eight times versus foes with a win percentage below .400. The Lobos have many flaws, including lack of rebounding and committing too many turnovers. Better shooting would cure some of that and San Jose State has the worst defense in the MTW. The Spartans are one of the worst defensive teams not just in conference, but in the nation surrendering 86.3 points a game. New Mexico gives up 15 fewer points per game than the Spartans. | |||||||
01-20-21 | Canadiens -116 v. Canucks | 5-6 | Loss | -116 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
The Canadiens have gotten bigger this season on defense - and more aggressive. Montreal's early defensive improvement looks like it's for real after the Canadiens held Edmonton to two goals in two games. Montreal outhit the Oilers, 31-17, in its 3-1 road victory on Monday. If it weren't for blowing a two-goal lead to the Maple Leafs in their opening game, the Canadiens would be 3-0. Montreal has won its last four games on the road against Vancouver. The Canucks aren't playing well. Vancouver has lost three in a row, outscored, 13-4, during this span. The Canucks' young, talented scorers are slumping and their special teams have been atrocious giving up seven power-play goals in 21 times behind shorthanded while failing to score when they've had the man advantage this season. | |||||||
01-20-21 | Kings v. Clippers OVER 231.5 | Top | 96-115 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
The Kings were a below average defensive team last season, but they weren't a defensive disaster. Sacramento coach Luke Walton decided to make some defensive adjustments this season. The result is the Kings rank last defensively. They have allowed 122 or more points in each of their last eight games. Sacramento is a top-nine scoring team. That combination of good offense/horrendous defense makes the Kings a dead-nuts Over team as long as Walton stays their coach and the oddsmaker is slow to fully adjust. The Over has won in nine of the Kings' last 11 games. There's no reason to go against that pertinent trend in this matchup. The Clippers are averaging 132.3 points in their last three games. That's their best scoring stretch of the season. The teams just met this past Friday and the Clippers won, 138-100, for a total of 238 points. | |||||||
01-20-21 | Abilene Christian v. Sam Houston State +3.5 | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show | |
Sam Houston State has the best conference record in the Southland at 5-0. I'm not buying that Abilene Christian is better. Each team has 11 victories. Sam Houston State is 7-1 at home. The Bearkats average 82.8 points and have the best player on the court in Zach Nutall, who averages 20.4 points. Abilene Christian is one game above .500 on the road. The Wildcats average eight fewer points per game than Sam Houston State. Sam Houston State has covered in each of its last eight lined games. | |||||||
01-20-21 | Tulsa +12 v. Houston | 59-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
OK, I get this is a monster revenge spot for eighth-ranked Houston. The Cougars suffered their lone loss, 65-64, on the road to Tulsa on Dec. 29. The Cougars have the No. 2 defense in the country surrendering just 56.5 points. But Tulsa is deserving of far more respect than this overpriced line. The Golden Hurricane rank 16th in the nation defensively allowing just 60.9 points a game. So obviously we have a very low total where points are going to be extremely hard to come by. Tulsa has the guard play and can score enough in the paint to keep things close. The Golden Hurricane bounced back after their annual road loss to Wichita State by beating Memphis as a short 'dog this past Sunday. That shows me they aren't a team to fall apart. Their defense will keep them in this game while their offense scores enough to keep them well within this inflated number. | |||||||
01-20-21 | Northwestern State v. Stephen F Austin -13.5 | 74-86 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
Yes, this is a mismatch. The betting line reflects that. It just doesn't reflect that enough. Stephen F. Austin averages 81.7 points per game. The Lumberjacks have the second-best shooting percentage in the country at 53.5 percent. Northwestern State gives up 82.2 points per game, which ranks 336th in the nation. It's a big reason why the Demons are 2-13 on the season, including 1-10 on the road. The Lumberjacks come up with nearly 10 steals per game. They also are a strong rebounding team. Northwestern lacks firepower. The Demons don't have anyone who averages even 13 points a game and only two players average more than 10 points for them. | |||||||
01-20-21 | Oilers v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
The Maple Leafs have scored a minimum of 3 goals in all four of their games. The Oilers are due to break out after a two-game series against the Canadiens in which they scored only two goals. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are too dangerous to be held in check for three straight games. Toronto goalie Frederik Andersen has been shaky in two of three starts. The Oilers are weak again defensively permitting 3.7 goals during their first four games. | |||||||
01-20-21 | Nets v. Cavs +10.5 | 135-147 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
There is a strong possibility the Nets will have their three superstars - James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving - playing together for the first time when they meet the Cavaliers today. Consider two things before jumping to the conclusion that the Nets are going to destroy the Cavaliers. No. 1: Irving hasn't played in 15 days. He's going to be rusty. Also it takes time for three players of that magnitude to get comfortable with each other on the court. This is what Nets coach Steve Nash said about that, "It's hard to build chemistry without playing, and we're not playing in practice. So the chemistry is going to be formed on the floor during games." Irving may be on a minutes restriction. It's doubtful those three mega stars are playing if Brooklyn does build a big lead leaving the back-door open for Cleveland. The teams meet again on Friday. No. 2: It's not getting nearly the publicity of Irving's return, but the Cavaliers are expecting to get back their injured starting backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Both went through full practice on Monday. Reserve guard Damyean Dotson has done a credible job filling in. Sexton is one of the more underrated players in the league averaging 25 points. Center Jarrett Allen and veteran Taurean Prince are set to make their Cleveland debuts. They were part of the Harden trade. Allen is having a good season averaging 11.2 points and 10.4 rebounds. He joins Andre Drummond, who is averaging a career-best 19.3 points and 15.8 rebounds. There's also the situational factor to consider. The Nets are in a letdown spot after a dramatic nationally televised two-point victory against the Bucks two nights ago. The Nets were underdogs against the Bucks. Brooklyn is 2-6 ATS the past eight times it has been favored. | |||||||
01-19-21 | Thunder +10 v. Nuggets | 101-119 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
The Nuggets have captured the Northwest Division each of the past two seasons. They reached the Western Conference finals last season. But Denver is off to a 6-7 start this season as their roster composition is much different from last year. The Nuggets also are missing a key cog with breakout star Michael Porter sidelined because of COVID-19 protocols. So right now the Nuggets shouldn't be laying double-digits to a feisty underdog such as Oklahoma City. The Thunder have excelled in this exact role - road 'dogs. Oklahoma City is 22-7 ATS the past 29 times taking road points for a winning percentage of 76 percent. The Thunder are 5-1 ATS as away 'dogs this season with straight-up victories against the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans in this role. The Thunder should be well-rested and prepared having last played this past Friday as their Sunday game against the 76ers was postponed due to contact tracing issues with Philadelphia. | |||||||
01-19-21 | Seton Hall +10 v. Villanova | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Seton Hall hasn't played since defeating DePaul 10 days ago. But that's nothing compared to Villanova. The Wildcats haven't seen action in 27 days due to COVID-19. Villanova only was able to start practicing a few days ago and then for a limited time. They have several players questionable for this game, including fourth-leading scorer, guard Caleb Daniels. It would be somewhat surprising if the Wildcats weren't at least somewhat rusty. The Pirates have been turning it up winning eight of their last 10 games. They have the frontcourt to hang against Villanova with Sandro Mamukelashvili and Tyrese Samuel. Seton Hall has proven itself on the road posting upset wins against Penn State, Marquette and Xavier. Villanova has only covered one of its last eight home games. | |||||||
01-18-21 | Grambling State v. Prairie View A&M -4.5 | 50-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
Prairie View A&M has only played six games. But the Panthers' last three games were against major conference foes Louisville, Washington State and TCU. Before meeting those schools, the Panthers defeated Evansville of the well-respected Missouri Valley Conference. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS on the season. Grambling State isn't that good. The Tigers lack highly skilled ballhandlers, which makes them vulnerable to Prairie View A&M's defensive pressure. | |||||||
01-18-21 | Sabres v. Flyers OVER 5.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
The Flyers have shown plenty of offense in the early going producing 11 goals in their first two games, both against the Penguins. The Sabres are more dangerous on the offensive end adding Taylor Hall. That gives Buffalo's three strong scoring threats with Jack Eichel and Victor Olofsson. These teams have a history of going Over especially when playing in Philadelphia where the Over has cashed 73 percent during the past 32 meetings. | |||||||
01-18-21 | Bucks -122 v. Nets | Top | 123-125 | Loss | -122 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Perhaps by the end of the season, the Nets will be the best team in the Eastern Conference. But right now the Bucks are the superior club. Milwaukee is 7-1 in its last eight games, averaging 119 points a game during this span. James Harden will be playing just his second game as a Net. He played 40 minutes and had a triple-double against the Magic on Saturday. Harden hadn't played in four days prior to that game. We'll see what kind of shape he's in stepping way up in class against the Bucks with his new team. The 8-6 Nets aren't expected to have Kyrie Irving for a seventh straight game. The Nets had to trade starting center Jarrett Allen and key reserve Caris LeVert to get Harden. Their center spot is now manned by over-the-hill DeAndre Jordan, who contributes virtually no scoring. The Bucks have been the best regular-season team for the past two seasons and they have the best record in the Eastern Conference this season.They average more points than the Nets and give up four fewer points per game than Brooklyn. Milwaukee has beaten the Nets eight straight times in Brooklyn. | |||||||
01-18-21 | The Citadel +13.5 v. NC-Greensboro | 73-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm going to take this many points with The Citadel, who average 93.3 points a game. That's No. 2 in the nation. The Bulldogs also are No. 2 in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 43.1 percent. UNC Greensboro, by contrast, ranks 308th in field goal percentage and is 329th in 3-point shooting at 28.2 percent. The Spartans are not a strong defensive rebounding team so the Bulldogs could be getting second chance points, too. The Spartans have failed to cover in seven of their last eight home contests. | |||||||
01-18-21 | VMI +7.5 v. East Tennessee State | 81-92 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
VMI averages 23 more points per game than East Tennessee State. The Keydets have produced an average of 90.6 points during their last three games. They have a standout senior guard in Greg Parham, who averages 18.4 points. I certainly believe the Keydets can hang in against East Tennessee State, which has yielded at least 78 points in three of its last four games. The Buccaneers also commit around 16 turnovers per game. VMI is the fifth-best free throw shooting team in the country, too, making 82.1 percent of its free throws. | |||||||
01-18-21 | Bruins v. Islanders +121 | 0-1 | Win | 121 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
I'll take the Islanders as a home 'dog coming off an embarrassing 5-0 road loss to the Rangers this past Saturday. The Islanders played a terrible game and backup goalie Ilya Sorokin seemed ill-prepared as a surprise starter in that game, judging by his poor performance, when starter Semyon Varlamov suffered a freak injury during pregame warmups. Word is that Varlamov is able to play today. I'm fine with the Islanders even if Sorokin has to play again. He's better than what he showed in that game. I'm expecting a supreme effort from the Islanders after their coach, the highly-respected Barry Trotz, ripped them following the Rangers' loss. This is a good spot to go against the Bruins being early in the season. Boston doesn't have David Pastrnak back yet and they are in transition defensively minus the departed Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug. The Bruins opened with a split against the Devils, with both of those games behind decided either in overtime or in a shootout. | |||||||
01-17-21 | Pelicans v. Kings OVER 226.5 | 128-123 | Win | 101 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Both Pelicans coach Stan Van Gundy and Kings coach Luke Walton put in new defenses for their respective teams this season. New Orleans caught a few opponents off-guard with that early on, but the Pelicans are giving up an average of 112.6 points in regulation during their last five games. That figure would rank them in the bottom 10 if computed during the entire season. Sacramento is 11th in the league in scoring. The Kings always had backcourt scorers, but now they're getting added points from big man Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley Jr. The Kings have scored 123 or more points in four of their last six games. Walton's new defensive approach has been a disaster. The Kings are surrendering an average of 131.7 points during their last seven games, giving up 122 or more points in each of those games. So it's not a surprise Sacramento ranks last in the NBA in points allowed per game. The Pelicans have the firepower to take advantage with Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson and Eric Bledsoe. | |||||||
01-17-21 | Blackhawks +138 v. Panthers | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm not going to be landing on the Blackhawks too often this season. But this is one of those exceptions. The Panthers finished last season losing nine of their past 11 home games. The key, however, to this handicap to the Blackhawks is the situation. Chicago has played two games. Florida has yet to see action. This disadvantage for Florida is magnified because the Panthers are breaking in many new players and didn't have a preseason to work out the kinks. The Panthers don't have their leading goal scorer from last season, Mike Hoffman. He signed with the Blues. Florida also is likely to be minus veteran defenseman Keith Yandle, who is expected to be a healthy scratch due to issues with management. Starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky won't be in net either. He's still working his way into shape. So the Blackhawks draw Florida backup goalie Chris Driedger. The Blackhawks are stepping way down in class after unfortunately drawing reigning Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay in their first two games. Neither game against the Lightning was close, but the Blackhawks played better in the rematch, which was this past Friday. Chicago has had a nice recent run in Florida beating the Panthers in six of its last eight visits. | |||||||
01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 57 m | Show |
I've never bought into that cliche of it's tough to beat a team three times in a season. New Orleans beat Tampa Bay, 34-20, opening week and defeated the Buccaneers far worse in Tampa, 38-3, in Week 9 when Tom Brady was more in sync with his new team. Brady had a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those losses to the Saints. Truth be told, Brady hasn't been that sharp when taking on strong defenses such as New Orleans. The Saints could have the hottest defense during the second half of the season. They've held seven of their last 10 foes to 16 points or fewer. New Orleans defense only had to be on the field for 21 minutes against the Bears last week. I like the Saints' defensive line, perhaps the deepest in the league, to win the battle of the trenches especially with the Buccaneers losing guard Alex Cappa to an ankle injury. Brady doesn't have the mobility to escape a strong pass rush, which the Saints can generate without blitzes. Tampa Bay is 2-5 SU and ATS against playoff teams. The Saints are the steadier team with a highly-efficient offense and the best playmaker on the field in Alvin Kamara. Drew Brees has his top wideouts healthy again, including Michael Thomas. New Orleans has home-field, far more postseason experience than Tampa Bay and the built-in confidence of two previous lopsided victories. | |||||||
01-17-21 | Memphis v. Tulsa +2 | 57-58 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Tulsa destroyed Memphis, 80-40, last Jan. 22. The Tigers had their opportunity to gain revenge at home when they hosted the Golden Hurricane on Dec. 21 and lost again, 56-49. Now the Tigers will try to beat Tulsa on the road having not played since Dec. 29 because of three straight games postponed due to COVID. Tulsa had been playing well with six consecutive victories and covers in each of their last five lined games. But the Golden Hurricane couldn't overcome their road jinx against Wichita State in their last game, getting hammered, 72-53, this past Wednesday. I see the Golden Hurricane bouncing back at home against a foe that has not been able to beat them. Tulsa has covered 10 of its last 14 home games. | |||||||
01-17-21 | Western Kentucky +2.5 v. Marshall | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky came through on Friday beating Marshall, 81-73, as 4 1/2-point home favorites. Now the Hilltoppers go on the road against Marshall and are now underdogs. I don't think Marshall is the better team. So I'll accept these points. Western Kentucky surrenders fewer points per game than Marshall. The Hilltoppers rank sixth in the nation in free throw percentage at 80.5 percent. Free throws were the big story in Friday's game. The Hilltoppers made 19 of 21 while Marshall hit two of five. Why such a large free throw discrepancy? Did Marshall get homered? I don't know, but it's just another plus in the Hilltoppers' favor that they get to the free throw line far more than Marshall - and they rarely miss when they do get there. | |||||||
01-17-21 | Hofstra v. Delaware +3 | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Delaware defeated Hofstra, 74-56, at home two days ago in a matchup of two middle-of-the-pack Colonial Athletic Association teams. I didn't find anything unusual in that victory. The Blue Hens have been playing better since conference play began. They outrebounded the Pride, 40-29. So I'll take points with them in a home 'dog role. The Blue Hens have given up just 64 points per game in four Colonial Athletic Association games.They rank first in the league in two-point defensive field goal percentage and No. 2 in overall defensive field goal percentage. Hofstra didn't shoot well against Delaware on Friday. But that shouldn't be surprising as Delaware has limited foes to 40.9 percent field goal shooting during its past five games. The Pride rank 225th in the country in field goal percentage at 43 percent. | |||||||
01-16-21 | Wild v. Kings +118 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
I don't see rookie Kirill Kaprizov repeating his season-opening heroics of producing three points, including scoring an overtime goal, in leading the Wild past the Kings, 4-3, two days ago. I look for the Kings, with their veteran players, to bounce back against the youthful Wild. Veteran defensemen Drew Doughty and Olli Maatta had terrible games. They should play much better for LA, whose blue line gets reinforced with Sean Walker and Kurtis MacDermid now available after missing Thursday's game because of COVID restrictions. | |||||||
01-16-21 | Ravens v. Bills OVER 50 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 17 m | Show |
Lamar Jackson is back in MVP form. Josh Allen has become a top-five caliber quarterback. Offense is going to trump defense in this matchup. Baltimore closed the regular-season averaging 37 points and 430 yards of total offense during its last five games. Jackson accounted for 15 TD's and 1,200 yards of total offense with a 110.6 passer rating during this span. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. J.K. Dobbins and Jackson will be the two best runners on the field. Buffalo ranked 17th in run defense. The Bills gave up 472 yards to the Colts last week. Their defense was on the field for nearly 35 minutes. Buffalo was fortunate the Colts didn't produce more than 24 points. They were inches away from doing that. The Ravens average more points per game than the Colts. The last time the Bills faced a dual threat QB anywhere near the caliber of Jackson was against the Cardinals back in mid-November when Kyler Murray put up 32 points against them. Jackson is superior to Murray. It wouldn't surprise if the Bills defense melted down in the fourth quarter from constant pounding. The Ravens' defense was highly impressive in dispatching the Titans, 20-13, last week. Baltimore's defensive strengths matched up well to Tennessee. It also was the third time Baltimore and Tennessee had met in one calendar year. So the Ravens had a great deal of familiarity with the Titans. Baltimore is not so well acquainted with Buffalo. Allen isn't the inconsistent, inaccurate quarterback he was during his first two years in the league. He broke out in a major way during his third season accounting for 45 touchdowns while breaking many of Buffalo's team passing records. The Bills broke their franchise scoring record by 43 points producing 501 points. The Bills are the opposite of the Ravens in that they set up the run by passing - if they even want to bother running. The Ravens like to blitz. They put a lot of trust in their cornerbacks. Buffalo is a dangerous matchup for them because of Allen's tremendous mobility and receiving targets - Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown and emerging Gabriel Davis. Each of these wideouts brings something to the table. Diggs has been unstoppable this season. Beasley is a reliable move-the-chains target. Brown is a deep threat. Davis has caught six passes for 192 yards during the last two games. Buffalo weather in January can be tricky. But the forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 30s with 10-12 mph wind. So the weather shouldn't be a hindrance to the total. | |||||||
01-16-21 | Canadiens -108 v. Oilers | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
The Canadiens are still kicking themselves for blowing a two-goal lead in their opener against the Maple Leafs, a 5-4 overtime defeat this past Wednesday. The rested Canadiens felt they were the better team. They catch the Oilers playing for the third time in four days. Edmonton got satisfying home revenge in its last game, beating Vancouver, 5-3, this past Thursday. I expect the Canadiens to be better this season with a rejuvenated Carey Price, who did have several outstanding saves against the Maple Leafs. | |||||||
01-16-21 | Magic +9 v. Nets | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
There's not a lot to like about Orlando right now. The Magic have lost four in a row, losing by an average margin of 26 points during this span. But I'm going to hold my nose and step in with the Magic taking this many points against what has to be a distracted Nets team. Between Kyrie Irving doing his space cadet routine again and James Harden's arrival, the Nets have been a major publicity item. Harden is expected to make his Nets debut here. He won't have Irving, who is out due to personal reasons. Harden won't know his new teammates, will be rusty and likely won't play a ton of minutes especially with the Nets hosting the Bucks in their next game on Monday. Prices on the Nets are up with Harden joining the squad. Everything is about Harden, but the Nets lost two key pieces in the multi-team trade to acquire hime. Caris LeVert, their best bench player and a legitimate quality starter, was sent to the Pacers. Jarrett Allen, their starting center, was set to the Cavaliers. Allen was emerging as a force in the middle. Now the Nets' lone big man is over-the-hill DeAndre Jordan. Orlando's strength is its two big men, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon. They can pound the Nets inside. The Magic have covered five of the last six times against the Nets and have been a money-maker on the road going 13-6-1 (68 percent) during their past 20 away contests. | |||||||
01-16-21 | NJIT +3 v. Albany | 75-83 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
I find value in this America East Conference matchup of two weak offenses where even one point matters. New Jersey Tech is 4-4. Albany is 1-5. The Great Danes haven't scored more than 66 points once this season. They also have covered only 28 percent of their past 42 home games. | |||||||
01-16-21 | Sharks v. Coyotes -123 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
I'm playing the Zig/Zag here expecting the Coyotes to bounce back after losing to the Sharks, 4-3, in a shootout on Thursday. San Jose goalie Martin Jones bailed his team out with several outstanding saves in that 4-3 win. Arizona had more shots on goal than San Jose. Even with the victory, the Sharks have lost eight of the last 11 times as an underdog. | |||||||
01-16-21 | Wofford v. Chattanooga +2 | 77-59 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
There are 13 teams in the country with 11 or more wins. UT Chattanooga is one of them. The Mocs have been a hot spread team going back to last season compiling a 14-5-1 ATS mark in their last 20 lined contests. This includes an 8-2-1 ATS record versus above .500 foes. Wofford relies heavily on freshmen in contrast to Chattanooga, which is senior dominated. That could prove telling for the Terriers in this road matchup. Wofford has allowed 78 or more points in three of its last four games. The Mocs are averaging 79 points in their five Southern Conference games. | |||||||
01-16-21 | Army v. Boston University -119 | 79-59 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
Boston University won the Patriot League last season. The Terriers swept Army last season, winning by 22 points at home and 14 on the road. The Terriers have back their key player, Walter Whyte. He's the team's second-leading scorer and No. 1 rebounder. Army lacks strong point guard play and is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation at 59.6 percent. | |||||||
01-15-21 | Hawks +6 v. Jazz | 92-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
The Hawks have a talented roster with six good players. They are not a bottom-feeder. Trae Young could be heating up after hitting 9 of 19 shots from the floor in helping lead the Hawks past the 76ers, 112-94, at home this past Monday. That victory halted a four-game Atlanta losing streak and should give the Hawks a boost. Atlanta was supposed to play the Suns on the road two days ago. That game was postponed. So the Hawks will be well rested. They catch the Jazz playing at home for the first time in two weeks. The Jazz finished a successful six-game, 10-day road trip going 4-2 after blowing out the undermanned Cavaliers, 117-87, this past Tuesday. I'm not sure how much concentration and focus Utah will have because this is a weird scheduling spot. The Jazz have to fly to Denver for a Sunday matchup before coming back home to play the next six times. Utah is terrible as a home favorite going 3-13-2 ATS the past 18 times in that role. That includes an 0-2 SU, ATS mark in that role this season with losses to the Timberwolves and Suns. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its five road games this season. The Hawks also have covered four of the past five times against the Jazz. | |||||||
01-15-21 | Blues v. Avalanche -1.5 | 0-8 | Win | 172 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
I hold a lot of respect for the Blues. But I want the Avalanche going for me in this short home revenge spot after St. Louis defeated Colorado, 4-1, two days ago. The Avalanche didn't play well. They seemed to be caught off-guard by the Blues' heavy checking and physical ways failing to counter that. I believe the Avalanche will be better prepared and proper adjustments made. They should have some urgency at the thought of going down 0-2 in this shortened season with a pair of home losses especially with their next four games on the road. Colorado has a history of responding well to this type of loss going 7-0 the past seven times following a loss of three or more goals. It's going to be difficult for the Blues to keep the Avalanche's restored No. 1 line of Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen off the scoreboard. It wouldn't surprise me if the Blues faded in the third period with this being their second game in three days playing in high altitude. | |||||||
01-15-21 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers +3.5 | 60-54 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 20 m | Show | |
Points aren't going to come easily with these two defensive-minded, hard-nosed half-court teams. So I'm attracted to grabbing points. Wisconsin has had trouble when playing at Rutgers losing the past two times there, including, 72-65, last season. I don't want to overreact to the Badgers' embarrassing 23-point road loss to Michigan this past Tuesday. But the Badgers did trail by 40 points. A game like that can't help their confidence when playing on the road. Rutgers' guard Ron Harper Jr. is the leading scorer on the court averaging 20 points. The thing I really like about Harper is he has the 13th lowest individual turnover ratio in the country. The Scarlet Knights have the 10th lowest turnover rate in the nation. So Wisconsin shouldn't be getting any easy baskets. | |||||||
01-15-21 | Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Senators | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 10 m | Show | |
I think the highly-talented Maple Leafs have a shot to win the Stanley Cup this season. Toronto wasn't that sharp in its opener against Montreal, but came back from a two-goal deficit to nip the Canadiens in overtime. I expect the Maple Leafs to play better against the Senators. Toronto has the edge of already having played a game - not to mention a huge advantage in talent - while Ottawa is making its season debut. The Senators were the second-worst team in the league last season. The Senators are breaking in many new faces and without preseason they likely will start slow. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,325 |
Dan Kaiser | $1,247 |
Jesse Schule | $666 |
Mike Lundin | $633 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Jim Feist | $402 |
Marc Lawrence | $400 |
Big Al McMordie | $325 |
AAA Sports | $316 |
Tom Macrina | $290 |