Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-14-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
The Braves have captured the first two games of this NLCS matchup. But this sets up to be the Dodgers' spot. Given Clayton Kershaw's uncertain status following a flare-up of back trouble, Julio Urias might be LA's most reliable pitcher. Urias was 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 1.14 WHIP during the regular season. He's followed that up by being unscored upon in eight innings of postseason work striking out 11 while issuing just a single walk. Urias is a blazing 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP during his last three appearances spanning 14 innings. Atlanta has some vulnerability when you get past its first couple of starters. That's the case here with Kyle Wright getting the start. He was 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 ratio during the regular season. Wright pitched much better in his one playoff appearance shutting out the Marlins in six innings of work. The Dodgers aren't the Marlins. No team scored more runs and hit more homers than the Dodgers. The Dodgers have professional hitters who can take a walk if need be. Wright lacks good control as evidenced by his walking 24 batters in 38 innings. | |||||||
10-13-20 | Rays v. Astros +101 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
I have nothing but admiration for Rays manager Kevin Cash. He's an out-of-the-box thinker and one of the best managers in baseball. He has the Rays on the verge of going to the World Series. Tampa Bay leads Houston 2-0 in the American League Championship Series. Now, though, is the time to step in with the Astros, who are 8-1 the last nine times they've been a playoff underdog. Tampa Bay has outscored Houston by just three runs in the two games. The Rays only have 10 hits in the series. The Astros have been dogged by leaving 21 men on base during these two games, victimized by outstanding and clutch Tampa Bay fielding plays and suffering bad luck and misfortune with some of their hard hit balls. Not that I feel sorry for the cheating Astros. But I do think they are due for a victory here. The starting pitching matchup is Jose Urquidy versus lefty Ryan Yarbrough. Urquidy had a 2.73 ERA in five regular-season starts. This will be his third postseason start. The Rays have never faced him giving Urquidy the element of surprise. Yarbrough has never started a playoff game. The Astros rank in the top five against lefthanded pitching in batting average and a number of metric categories, including slugging percentage and OPS. | |||||||
10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
Quarterbacks usually are the focal point. But give a close look to the trenches and that each team will be missing a key skill position player. When doing that this matchup spells Under to me. The Chargers rank 13th in scoring defense. They have a premier pass rusher in Joey Bosa, good run-stuffing linebackers and a solid secondary. Michael Thomas will be missing his fourth straight game. There's a big drop from Thomas to the Saints' other wide receivers. Offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk is questionable after suffering a concussion last week. New Orleans ranks sixth in run defense and 14th in pass defense. This is rookie Justin Herbert's first NFL dome game and just his second road start. He won't have Austin Ekeler, the Chargers' best running back, nor will he have his three best offensive linemen. Center Mike Pouncey is done for the season. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga and right guard Trai Turner have been ruled out for this week. This means the Chargers have backups at three spots and their two left side offensive line starters, Sam Tevi and Forrest Lamp, are below average. Tevi ranks among the league's worst in missing pass blocks. Saints star pass rusher Cameron Jordan has the second-highest pressure rate in the league among defensive linemen. Despite being in different conferences, the teams have a familiarity. They have faced each other in joint practices the past couple of years. This should be a plus for the Under as neither team figures to get caught off-guard. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 216 | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 35 h 48 m | Show |
I don't expect the Lakers-Heat to make 39 of 43 (91 percent) free throws like they combined to do in the Heat's 111-108 Game 5 victory on Friday. I do expect both teams to play intense defense and for the pace to be slow in Sunday's Game 6. These are two reasons why I like the Under. There are other factors, too, that point to a lower-scoring game than what the total indicates. Fatigue and being in the bubble for so long are considerations. The Heat have shortened their bench to just two reserves with starting point guard Goran Dragic out. Jimmy Butler is on fumes. Miami has to play a slow-down, half-court, slog-in-the-mud style. They have the mentality, coaching and guts to win this way. The Lakers' greatest fear of LeBron James and Anthony Davis not getting enough help was realized in Game 5. Except for those two superstars, the Lakers didn't get good performances from anybody else. LA's reserves were 5-of-22 shooting from the floor for just 14 points. None of them can be counted on. This puts tremendous pressure on James, who doesn't figure to make 15 of 21 shots from the floor like he did on Friday, and Davis, who isn't 100 percent. Davis is dealing with soreness in his right heel that was reaggravated during Friday's game. Bothered by that, Davis managed just two shots in the fourth quarter. I have no doubt Davis will play Sunday. How effective he'll be with the heel injury and with defensive ace Bam Adebayo guarding him remains to be seen. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns +1.5 | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show | |
Indy ranks first defensively. But I'm not buying that the Colts have the best defense, especially missing their top defensive player, injured linebacker Darius Leonard. The Colts have faced the Jaguars, Vikings, Jets and Bears. The Browns are the most balanced offense they've gone against. The Browns have produced 34 or more points each of the last three weeks. Kareem Hunt is a capable bellcow running back with Nick Chubb injured. Baker Mayfield is in a better system with better coaching. Odell Beckham Jr. is flashing his immense talents again. Indy can't match Cleveland's firepower. The Browns have held their opponents to 3.5 yard per rush, which ranks fifth-best. The Browns lead the NFL with 11 takeaways. Their banged-up secondary is getting healthier. So this is a tough matchup for a conservative Colts offense that relies on rookie RB Jonathan Taylor and over-the-hill Philip Rivers to play game-manager. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 30 m | Show |
The Panthers have shown they have plenty of weapons and can put up points despite missing Christian McCaffrey. Teddy Bridgewater has the third-highest completion percentage in the NFL. Robbie Anderson and D.J. Moore rank among the best wide receiver tandems in the league and Mike Davis has been solid filling in for McCaffrey. The Falcons are decimated in the secondary especially at safety. Atlanta is giving up 34.5 points per game, second-most in the NFL. Atlanta, though, can produce points with excellent skill position strength even if Julio Jones doesn't play. Veteran Matt Ryan can exploit a young Carolina defense. So I have no trouble envisioning each team producing at least 27 points especially playing inside Atlanta's fast-track dome. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Bengals +13 v. Ravens | 3-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 27 m | Show | |
The Ravens aren't close to where they want to be while the Bengals are an improved bunch. Joe Burrow just hasn't been the first rookie QB to throw for 300 yards in three consecutive games. He's done much more giving the Bengals hope and confidence. Baltimore ranks just 11th in offensive efficiency. The Ravens' offensive line is playing below their level and Lamar Jackson is off to a slow start. He might not be 100 percent healthy either. The Ravens had fewer first downs and lost the time of possession against lowly Washington last Sunday. Cincinnati has played the Ravens tough covering six of the past seven meetings. Baltimore hasn't been good as home chalk under John Harbaugh going 6-12 ATS the past 18 times as a home favorite. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Cardinals -7 v. Jets | 30-10 | Win | 100 | 53 h 25 m | Show | |
The Cardinals have far more talent than the Jets. Arizona, though, has underachieved in its last two games losing to the Lions and Panthers on the road. I see the Cardinals rebounding against a perfect patsy here. The winless Jets have been outscored by 66 points. That's the worst point differential in the league. The Giants are a distant second at minus 49. The Jets are at this low mark with Sam Darnold at QB, too. Darnold has regressed, but he's still far better than backup Joe Flacco, who will replace the injured Darnold in this game. The Jets also are likely to be missing their injured star rookie offensive left tackle Mekhi Becton. Chandler Jones should be in for a monster game if Becton can't go. The Jets' offense has produced just 5 TD's in four games. Morale is low with the Jets. I get the impression they don't care if they win or lose because many of their players dislike coach Adam Gase. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Eagles v. Steelers -7 | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 24 m | Show | |
The Steelers are fresh after getting an unexpected bye. Before their bye they led the NFL in sacks. They average five sacks a game. Carson Wentz isn't having a good season. He's been sunk by multiple injuries in Philly's offensive line and receiving corps. Because of that this is a bad matchup for the Eagles. The Steelers blitz from all angles. The Eagles' offensive line already is down Brandon Brooks and Jason Peters and now Lane Johnson is hurting. Ben Roethlisberger has shown he's fine with 7 TD passes in three games and just one interception. A healthy James Conner makes a difference, too, for the Steelers' offense. Pittsburgh is traditionally strong in October under Mike Tomlin going 20-7-1 ATS. | |||||||
10-10-20 | Charlotte v. North Texas +3 | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 52 m | Show | |
North Texas is averaging 41 points a game. The Mean Green has scored 31 or more points in each of their three games. However, the Mean Green are surrendering 45.7 points. Their defense should look much better this week getting back linebacker Tyreke Davis and facing a weak Charlotte offense that averages just 18.5 points per game. I expect North Texas' offense to continue humming if not being even better with the decision to start Austin Aune at quarterback. He threw for 339 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-31 loss to Southern Mississippi last week. If North Texas would have played a clean game it likely would have won. But the Mean Green lost three fumbles. I see them playing better this week. They have a far superior offense and their defense draws a weak offense. | |||||||
10-10-20 | Kansas State +9 v. TCU | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
Gary Patterson is a good coach, but not when it comes to covering the spread as a home favorite. TCU stunningly has failed to accomplish that 21 of the past 27 (22 percent) times in that role. I don't see the Horned Frogs changing that trend in this matchup. TCU has a young team and is off a huge road victory against Texas as a double-digit 'dog. So a letdown is very possible. Kansas State is 6-1 ATS the past seven times as a road 'dog. The Wildcats have shown they are an underrated team upsetting Texas Tech and Oklahoma during their last two games. The line is too high here. This could be a reaction to K-State QB Skylar Thompson getting injured last week. Thompson could be ready to go here. Even if he isn't, though, I'm fine with backup QB Will Howard, who threw for 173 yards against Texas Tech after replacing Thompson. The Wildcats have an intriguing weapon in 5-foot-5, 168-pound fresham all-purpose back Deuce Vaughn. He's the only player in the Big 12 to lead his team in rushing and receiving and is the only player in the country to have both 200 rushing and receiving yards. Some of the Horned Frogs' home field edge is reduced because of limited capacity. Only 12,000 spectators will be allowed into 46,000 Amon Carter Stadium because of the pandemic. | |||||||
10-10-20 | Arkansas v. Auburn -13.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 39 m | Show |
Congrats to Arkansas' first-year head coach Sam Pittman in the Razorbacks upsetting then-No. 16 Mississippi State, 21-14, as 16 1/2-point road 'dogs last week. That was the Razorbacks' first SEC win following 20 straight conference losses. Don't expect the Razorbacks to make it two straight SEC victories. Not only do the Razorbacks face the challenge of a second straight league road game, but they have to refocus while drawing an angry Auburn. The Tigers lost to third-ranked Georgia last week. Arkansas has an improved defense. Still, the Razorbacks remain far inferior to Auburn. The Tigers blew out Arkansas, 51-10, on the road last year. There isn't a 41-point difference this season. But the gap still is more than two touchdowns. | |||||||
10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 217 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 41 m | Show |
By far the Heat and Lakers had their finest defensive performances of the playoffs in Game 4 this past Tuesday. The Heat getting star defender Bam Adebayo back and playing more man-to-man defense were keys. After giving up an average of 120 points in the first two games, the Heat have held LA to an average of 103 points during the past two games. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra isn't going to go away from his defensive script from the last two games in which Miami has gone 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS. The Heat are going to stick with plain, old-fashion playoff intensity defense. Adebayo's impact can't be downplayed. He missed Games 2 and 3 with a stiff neck. Adebayo is a rim protector and is the one Miami player who can keep Anthony Davis from dominating the offensive glass. Davis failed to get an offensive rebound in Game 4 after pulling down 13 during the first three games. It takes two to make a total work. I see the Lakers holding up their end especially with Goran Dragic out after he tore the plantar fascia in his left foot during Game 1. That's a serious injury and Dragic isn't coming back soon from it. The ramifications are severe for the Heat. Dragic, not Jimmy Butler, was the Heat's leading scorer in the playoffs entering this series. He also was their top assists guy and one of their key 3-point shooters. The loss of Dragic forces Spoelstra to use sixth man Tyler Herro as his lead ballhandler. Inserting Herro into the starting lineup greatly weakens Miami's bench especially from a scoring perspective. Lakers coach Frank Vogel made a major adjustment in Tuesday's Game 4 putting Davis - the Lakers' best defender - on Butler for the entire game. Butler still had a decent game, but couldn't come close to matching his Superman performance in Game 3 while missing nine of his last 12 shots. These adjustments, coupled with playoff intensity, should result in the Under cashing again. | |||||||
10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
Look for defense to rule here. The Buccaneers rank No. 2 in run defense and give up the fourth fewest yards. The Bears have given up just three passing TD's, fewest in the league. Chicago also draws an extremely banged-up Tampa Bay offense. The Buccaneers won't have O.J. Howard and probably not Chris Godwin. They also could be minus running back Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy leaving plodding Ronald Jones to handle the running load. The Bucs' remaining wideouts - Mike Evans, Scotty Miller and Justin Watson - aren't at 100 percent either. Playing on Thursday really hurts the Bucs. The Bears are a below average running team and Nick Foles looked worse than Mitch Trubisky. Foles was really hurt with no preseason games to get his timing down with his new team. This will be just his second start with the Bears. I'm not expecting much. | |||||||
10-08-20 | Tulane v. Houston OVER 59 | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 40 h 10 m | Show |
Tulane defeated Houston, 38-31, in one of the wildest games of the season last year. Certainly those like myself, who had Houston plus 4, will never forget it. Much has changed since then. But one thing should remain the same: This should be another high-scoring game. Tulane has a very sharp offensive coordinator, Will Hall. The Green Wave posted their third-highest total in points (33.1) and yards (449.3) in Hall's first year last season. Tulane lost a lot of offensive talent from last season. It has taken three games, but Tulane has found its rhythm with the quarterback switch to freshman Michael Pratt. The Green Wave scored 59 points when Pratt took over at QB against Southern Mississippi in a 66-24 victory last week. Houston ranked near the bottom in the nation in total defense and pass defense, while surrendering 34 points a game last year. I mention last year's numbers, because the Cougars have yet to play this season due to three straight cancellations caused by COVID-19. The Cougars also feature an offensive mastermind in head coach Dana Holgorsen. QB Clayton Tune received plenty of experience last season after D'Eriq King sat out the last eight games before transferring to Miami. Tune has proven playmakers around him headed by Marquez Stevenson, one of the better senior wide receivers in college. This is a step up for Tulane's defense, which has gone against South Alabama, Navy and Southern Mississippi. Certainly, the Cougars will be fresh with lots of energy. | |||||||
10-08-20 | Braves v. Marlins +130 | 7-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
The Braves have outclassed the Marlins during the first two games of this playoff series. But now the Marlins are an enticing underdog facing elimination in a battle of young starting pitchers. I prefer Sixto Sanchez against Atlanta's Kyle Wright. These two pitchers went up against each other on Sept. 8. It was no contest: Miami won, 8-0. That game was in Atlanta. This matchup is at neutral site Houston. Sanchez displayed his vast potential during his last start. That came six days ago against the Cubs in the postseason. Sanchez held the Cubs scoreless in five innings posting six strikeouts. Miami won that game, 2-0. Wright made eight regular-season starts going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA. Career-wise against Miami in three starts, Wright is 0-2 with a 6.92 ERA. | |||||||
10-07-20 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Perhaps there is something to the theory of baseballs being juiced for the playoffs. The Rays and Yankees have played two games in their series. There have been 12 runs scored in each game. There also have been a combined 12 home runs! Now the Yankees are a top-five team in runs and homers, while the Rays have an above average offense, too. But these games are being played at neutral site Petco Park, which is the best pitching park in the majors. I'm going to ride this power parade with the full expectations that each team should be good for at least four runs apiece given their offenses and a starting pitching matchup of Charlie Morton versus Masahiro Tanka. The 36-year-old Morton hasn't reached the sixth inning in any of his starts this season. He's given up three earned runs in three of his last four starts. Giancarlo Stanton has a good history against Morton and Stanton is in a great power groove with five homers so far in the postseason. Tanka has allowed 12 earned runs in his last three starts spanning 15 innings. He's given up six walks in his past two starts spanning eight innings. He's also surrendered nine homers this season in 48 innings. | |||||||
10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
We have a series after all thanks to Miami making 41 of 80 (51.2 percent) shots from the floor and 21 of 23 (91 percent) free throws in its 115-104 Game 3 victory this past Sunday. Jimmy Butler had a game for the ages with 40 points making 14 of 20 shots from the field. The Lakers haven't lost consecutive games in the playoffs. I expect their defensive intensity to be way up. They've held their last three opponents - Houston, Denver and Miami - to 108 or less points in seven of the last 11 games. I certainly don't expect Butler to repeat that monster performance and for the Heat to come nowhere close to shooting that unbelievably well again. Butler is a tremendous all-around player, but he's not Superman. The Lakers are in the Orlando bubble. They can't go anywhere, or do much except study game film of their miserable Game 3 loss. The Heat aren't going to have Goran Dragic. He's their best ballhandler. Bam Adebayo has a neck strain. He didn't play in Game 3 making Miami's victory all the more remarkable. He's questionable for this matchup. Adebayo is Miami's top defender. But he's also a force on the offensive glass and someone the Lakers have to game plan against. So he's a double-edged sword regarding the total. LeBron James and Anthony Davis committed a combined 15 turnovers on Sunday. James was overdue to have a big turnover game. The Heat are extremely well coached. They can play an effective 2-3 zone. The Lakers were held to just 50 points in the second half. So I have to think that the Heat's No. 1 priority is defense. Their hunger, confidence and street-fighting team makeup should be at a fever pitch for this matchup. This is playoff basketball after all. | |||||||
10-06-20 | Yankees v. Rays -119 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
I see the Rays bouncing back from their Game 1 loss to the Yankees on Monday. The Rays are 8-3 versus the Yankees this season and hold a starting pitching edge in a matchup of Tyler Glasnow versus 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia. Glasnow has lived up to his high ceiling when he has been healthy, which he is now. Tampa Bay has won during each of Glasnow's last nine starts this year. Garcia had a 4.98 ERA in 34 1/3 innings this season. I'd rather take my chances with Glasnow and lay a little higher juice. | |||||||
10-06-20 | Aces +8.5 v. Storm | 59-92 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
Down 0-2 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series, Las Vegas is in a must-win spot. Can the Aces remain alive? I don't know. I do know this is the most points they've gotten all season and I'm going to back them at this high number. Seattle has defeated Las Vegas by 13 points in each of the first two games. The Storm accomplished this by shooting 50 and 57 percent, respectively, from the floor. Las Vegas is a top-three defensive team. Seattle shot 47 percent from the field in the regular season. So I think the Storm's shooting percentage is coming down. The Aces outscored Seattle, 46-44, in the paint during Sunday's Game 2. The Storm, though, got to shoot 10 more free throws than Las Vegas. Maybe the free throw disparity won't be so great for this matchup especially after Aces coach Bill Laimbeer griped about it. Seattle is much deeper than Las Vegas. The Aces have had two games now to figure out they need to play at a slow pace and look to score inside instead of trying to trade baskets at a fast pace against Seattle. The Aces have league MVP A'ja Wilson. Even Laimbeer, who I consider a mediocre coach at best, should be able to figure that out. Who knows, maybe then the Aces could get Breanna Stewart in foul trouble. The Aces are 7-1 ATS following a loss and 9-3-1 ATS the past 13 times playing on one day's rest. | |||||||
10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays +137 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
I don't get the Rays being an underdog especially in this high of a range. Tampa Bay won the AL East Division title. The Rays achieved this in part by defeating the Yankees in eight of 10 meetings. Yeah, I get righthander Gerrit Cole is going for New York. But Cole struggled against the Rays this season posting a 4.96 ERA in 16 1/3 innings, while surrendering five homers. The Rays are 31-12 against righty starters. Tampa Bay also has won 10 of the last 12 times it has been a 'dog. The Yankees go against lefty Blake Snell, the former Cy Young Award winner who was solid this season with a 3.24 ERA. Snell gave up three runs on four hits to the Yankees this season in eight innings. Snell was sharp in his last start this past Tuesday holding the Blue Jays scoreless in 5 2/3 innings allowing only one hit and striking out nine. The Yankees have a losing record versus lefty starters. They ranked 25th in batting average against southpaws. Note that the game is being played at San Diego's Petco Park. This neutral site favors the Rays because of the spacious dimensions and being the premier pitcher's park. The Yankees are the more powerful team so they're hurt more by the ballpark configurations. | |||||||
10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219 | Top | 104-115 | Push | 0 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
The plucky Heat weren't going to upset the Lakers even if they were healthy. But now take away Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic - Miami's second and third-best players - the Heat have no chance. Still, the Heat have a lot of street fight mentality installed in them by Erik Spoelstra, Pat Riley and Jimmy Butler. This is a well-coached, tough, gutty team. And this Game 3 is their season. So I don't want to lay this big number with the Lakers. I believe the best way to go is with the Under. The Lakers haven't had a total this high since two series ago when they were going against the small-ball, up-tempo Rockets. The Heat also haven't had an Over/Under this high during their past two series. The Lakers are coming off their worst defensive performance maybe of the entire 17 playoff games giving up 114 points to a wounded Heat squad. Frank Vogel and LeBron James aren't going to stand for that. Expect a much tighter and intense Lakers defensive effort. No snoozing or being overconfident. The Heat know they have to clamp down on the Lakers being plus 13 on offensive rebounds. Adebayo is a long-shot to play. If he did that would reduce that gap. I'm not expecting him to play, though. I am expecting an all-out defensive effort from the Heat and for James to commit more turnovers than the small number he has. | |||||||
10-04-20 | Bills -2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 125 h 14 m | Show |
Only Kansas City and Baltimore are better AFC teams than Buffalo. The Bills are several levels higher than the Raiders especially with Las Vegas dealing with a cluster injury problem at wide receiver and in its offensive line. The spread is short because the Bills are traveling cross-country fresh off a victory while drawing the Raiders in an angry mood following their loss to the Patriots. Don't overthink these situational factors, though. Buffalo is far better than Las Vegas on both sides of the ball with Josh Allen developing into an elite force in this his third season. Allen already has set a Buffalo team record by accounting for a dozen TD's through three games. The Bills are healthy again at linebacker. Their defensive line has tremendous depth and their secondary is very good. Derek Carr could be down two starting offensive linemen and three wide receivers. Buffalo is giving up just 17.2 points in its last 10 away matchups. The Bills also have covered 78 percent of their past 11 road contests. | |||||||
10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins +7 | 31-23 | Loss | -120 | 123 h 57 m | Show | |
Russell Wilson is covering up a lot of flaws for Seattle such as a mediocre defense that doesn't apply much quarterback heat and will be without star safety Jamal Adams. This is a terrible spot for the Seahawks - a cross-country trip, early start time and brutal South Florida humidity. Seattle is fat and happy off back-to-back marquee home victories against the Patriots and Cowboys in see-saw type games. Miami, on the other hand, is on extended rest having played Thursday night. When Ryan Fitzpatrick is hot the Dolphins are competitive. And Fitzpatrick is playing well. The Dolphins are improved in the second year of their rebuild under Brian Flores. | |||||||
10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 45 | 31-38 | Loss | -109 | 123 h 53 m | Show | |
It's not a big surprise the Under is 3-0 in Chargers' games this season. The Chargers under Anthony Lynn are a dead-nuts Under team. Lynn runs a conservative offense relying on a strong defense to win the overall field position battle. Lynn is not going to change that style especially with rookie QB Justin Herbert set to face the toughest defense he's ever seen. The Buccaneers have an upper level defense. They are fourth in takeaways and fourth in total yards. Tampa Bay led the NFL in run defense last season. This year they rank third. The Buccaneers' offense, though, remains a work-in-progress. Tom Brady is far less of a risk taker than Jameis Winston preferring short, safe throws instead of attacking over the top. Brady is still trying to get in sync with his new team. Brady is getting a downgrade in offensive lines from the ones he's had in New England. | |||||||
10-04-20 | Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team | 31-17 | Push | 0 | 36 h 43 m | Show | |
The Ravens are in a foul mood after being embarrassed at home by the Chiefs this past Monday night. I can easily envision the Ravens running overmatched Washington into the ground. Lamar Jackson needs to re-establish his MVP credentials. Washington had one thing going - a strong defensive line. Now that's been sabotaged with Chase Young out with a groin injury and underrated Matt Ioannidis out for the season. I'm against tanking. But if any team should consider tanking it would be Washington. Dwayne Haskins is the worst starting QB in the NFL - and it's not even close. Washington's morale had to take a hit against Cleveland last week. Washington was hanging in on pace to cover a touchdown spread, if not pull an outright upset, until Haskins threw a brutal interception that turned the game around. This is hardly a road trip for Baltimore, just around 35 miles to Washington. No fans in the stands either so Washington doesn't really have a home field advantage. | |||||||
10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs -6.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 42 m | Show | |
The left side of the Chargers' offensive line consisting of tackle Sam Tevi and guard Forrest Lamp is one of the worst in the NFL. Now, coupled with starting center Mike Pouncey and the right side of the offensive line with guard Trai Turner and tackle Bryan Bulaga being out, I have to lay the touchdown with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay's Todd Bowles is one of the better defensive coordinators in the NFL. He has a lot to work with here. The Buccaneers are a top run-stop unit and they're likely to get a lot of sacks against pocket passer rookie Justin Herbert. The Buccaneers' offense should improve as the season progresses. It has enough weapons for Tom Brady to safely put up enough points to cover this number. The Chargers have a couple of key defensive injuries and are traveling cross country. An early start time for them certainly is not a plus either. | |||||||
10-03-20 | Oklahoma -7 v. Iowa State | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 56 m | Show |
I want Oklahoma going for me in a bounce-back spot after the Sooners were upset by Kansas State at home last week even though they outgained the Wildcats by 117 yards.The Sooners may have gotten complacent in that game with a 35-14 lead. The Sooners haven't lost consecutive regular season games in 21 years. Iowa State has talent, but the Cyclones aren't in the Sooners' elite class. The Cyclones already were beaten by Louisiana-Lafayette as 12-point home favorites and defeated TCU by three points. Oklahoma has dominated this series winning 20 of the last 21 meetings. The Sooners have won 24 in a row at Iowa State. | |||||||
10-03-20 | Auburn v. Georgia -6.5 | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 55 m | Show | |
Much is being made of Georgia's up-in-the-air QB situation. The Bulldogs won't suffer there, though. They have plenty of talent. There needs to be some focus about the trenches and that's where the Bulldogs will whip the Tigers. Auburn took some big hits on its defensive lines and has five new offensive linemen. So I prefer Georgia's offense and pedigree. The Bulldogs have won 12 of the last 15 in this series, including the past three and six of the last seven. They've had 10 victories by seven or more points. Georgia also has a history of fast starts under Kirby Smart opening 5-0 each of the last three years with all but two of those victories coming by 14 or more points. | |||||||
10-03-20 | UTSA v. UAB OVER 54.5 | 13-21 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
Both teams have well above average offenses and vulnerable defenses. UTSA averages 37.3 points and has a balanced attack. UAB puts up 33.7 points a game. The Blazers are balanced, too. San Antonio's Sincere McCormick and Birmingham's Spencer Brown are two of the best running backs in Conference USA. The Blazers rank 56th in run defense, while the Roadrunners rank 64th in pass defense. UTSA ranks 18th in rushing. The Blazers rate among the top 37 teams in the major offensive categories including total yards, scoring, passing and rushing. | |||||||
10-02-20 | Louisiana Tech v. BYU OVER 59 | Top | 14-45 | Push | 0 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
This total is high, but not high enough given how balanced and deadly these two offenses are. Louisiana Tech QB Luke Anthony has thrown eight TD passes in two games spreading the ball around to a bevy of targets. The Bulldogs are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 48.5 points. BYU has scored 103 points in two games, ranking in the top 10 in both passing and rushing. The Cougars rank second in the nation averaging 51.5 points. The Bulldogs have the offense to hang in for a while, but they could wilt down the stretch playing in mountain altitude leading to a lot of late scoring. | |||||||
10-02-20 | Cardinals +105 v. Padres | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
I'll take Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty against a motley crew of overworked Padres pitchers. The Padres' bullpen is extremely overworked after their first two game starters, Chris Paddack and Zach Davies, managed just a combined 4 1/3 innings. San Diego is in this jam because their two best starters, Dinelson Lamet and Mike Clevinger, are injured. Flaherty didn't have the dominant season he had last year, but he's still darn good and has a strong history versus the Padres with a 1.10 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in three career starts. The Padres were averaging just 3.8 runs during their last 13 games until scoring 11 runs yesterday. | |||||||
10-02-20 | Storm -5 v. Aces | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 37 h 6 m | Show | |
These were the two best teams in the WNBA this season so it's only fitting they meet in the championship series. But I believe Seattle has more going. The Storm have far more championship series experience than the Aces. Most of their players were on Seattle's 2018 WNBA championship squad. Las Vegas doesn't have that big-game pedigree. Seattle looked great in its last two games in sweeping its semifinal series against Minnesota that concluded this past Sunday. Las Vegas, on the other hand, had a full five-game grind-out semifinal series against Connecticut that wasn't decided until this past Tuesday with the Aces nipping the Sun, 66-63. The Aces trailed 2-1 in that series. The Aces suffered a key injury during that semifinal series losing Sixth Woman of the Year award winner Dearica Hamby with a knee injury. She's one of Las Vegas' top defenders. The Aces can only beat Seattle, the league's No. 2 scoring team, by playing outstanding defense. Seattle bench player Sami Whitcomb left the bubble so she's out of the series, too. But Hamby's loss is much more severe for Las Vegas. The Aces received no points from their bench in their last game against the Sun. Their three reserves combined to produce zero points and one assist while committing six turnovers and five fouls in a combined 24 minutes. Hamby averaged 25 minutes in the playoffs with a season average of 13 points and seven rebounds per game. The Storm have covered 23 of the last 34 times they've been favored. I believe they are the better team - as does the linemaker - and the situation is favorable to them. | |||||||
10-02-20 | Marlins v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
In Yu we trust. The Cubs are in must-win mode and going with their top pitcher, Yu Darvish. He had a Cy Young Award-type season going 8-3 in 12 starts with a 2.01 ERA. Darvish has been excellent for the Cubs now for the last 1 1/2 years posting a 2.40 ERA since last season's All-Star Game. Darvish could catch a big break if the Marlins' most dangerous hitter, Starling Marte, can't play after he got hit in the hand with a pitch on Wednesday. The Marlins are going with rookie Sixto Sanchez, who has a high ceiling but perhaps hit a rookie wall during his final two regular season starts when he gave up nine runs in seven innings. | |||||||
10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
Welcome to the Toilet Bowl. There are three AFC teams who are 0-3. These are two of them. The third is the Texans, who have played at the Chiefs, Ravens and at the Steelers. There has been drastic line movement in this matchup with the Jets now the favorite. Much of this line change is due to the Broncos switching quarterbacks going from backup Jeff Driskel to third-stringer Brett Rypien with Drew Lock out. I actually prefer Rypien over Driskel, who is 1-8 as an NFL starter. Denver is making the long journey to the East Coast. But much of this disadvantage is off-set by this being a night game and fans not being allowed in the stands at MetLife Field. The Jets have lost by a combined 57 points, an average of 19 points a game. They've lost to the Bills, battered 49ers and Colts. Denver has two close losses, falling to the Titans by two and to the Steelers on the road by five points. Tennessee and Pittsburgh are each 3-0. Even with the Broncos going with a reserve QB, I still rate them superior to the Jets. Denver has the best pass rusher, Bradley Chubb, and more weapons than the Jets with Melvin Gordon, Noah Fant and Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos also might get back talented all-purpose back Phillip Lindsay. Sam Darnold has regressed. Perhaps he's seeing ghosts again confused by Adam Gase's complex offense. Gase has a history of getting underachieving performances from players who have thrived when they have gotten away from him. Ryan Tannehill and Kenyan Drake are two prime examples. Darnold might fall into that category, too. There's an intangible element here. Speculation is Gase could get fired if the Jets lose this game. Gase is not popular with some of his players. This leaves you to wonder if some Jets are secretly hoping they lose this game in the hopes Gase gets canned? If that were to happen, an interim Jets coach would have 10 days to get ready for the next game so the timing would be good. | |||||||
10-01-20 | Reds +121 v. Braves | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
The Reds had the better starting pitcher going in Game 1 of this playoff series yesterday with Trevor Bauer. Cincinnati should have won, but lost 1-0 in 13 innings. The Reds outhit the Braves, 11-6, with three of Atlanta's hits coming in the 13th inning. Cincinnati stranded 13 baserunners going 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position. It was a highly frustrating loss not just for the underdog Reds, but anyone who had them on Wednesday me included. Now we have a similar situation. The Reds have the better starting pitcher going and once again are underdogs. Those two factors put me right back on Cincinnati. Luis Castillo has emerged as one of the National League's better pitchers during the last two years making the All-Star team last season. Castillo held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in nine of his 12 starts this season. Castillo is more proven than Ian Anderson, the Braves' highly promising rookie starter. This is just Anderson's seventh big league start. Despite the loss on Wednesday, the Reds still have won 11 of their last 15 games. | |||||||
09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 39 m | Show |
Maybe LeBron James is the Chosen One and his Lakers the anointed world champions. That's probably how this NBA Championship Series is going to get played out. But Miami will make LA sweat and earn it. The Lakers have been idle for four days. They lost the opening game in their playoff series against Portland and Houston. There's going to be a feeling-out process here in this Game 1. There could be Lakers rust. Eric Spoelstra is a top-notch coach. Miami will be well-prepared. The Lakers will need to hit a fair amount of 3-point shots to dent the Heat's 2-3 zone defense. Anthony Davis will have to deal with Bam Adebayo, who is the best defender an opponent can have to square off against Davis. James is going to be facing a swarm of wing players who are accomplished defenders and have experience guarding him - Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala. Spoelstra coached James in Miami. This will be James' stiffest test of the postseason. Let's forget the regular season. Erase it. Concentrate on the bubble where the Heat raised their game to an unprecedented level sweeping the Pacers, stunning the Bucks and taking out the Celtics. The Heat's intensity and variety of defenses help them bottle up Giannis Antetokounmpo and then Jayson Tatum. The Heat have been tremendously underrated in the bubble covering 12 of their last 15 games. The Lakers haven't faced this strong of a defense. Portland ranked 27th defensively. Denver was 16th, Houston 15th. James and Davis are the two best players on the court. But the Heat have the next best three in Butler, Abebayo and Goran Dragic, who is having a strong postseason. I'll take the Heat's bench over LA's reserves. None of the Lakers' bench players has been able to match the instant offense of unconscious rookie Tyler Herro. Miami is likely to play more zone defense than the Lakers are used to. The Lakers rank 21st in 3-point shooting percentage. By comparison, the Celtics ranked 13th. There is no home-court in the bubble. This is strictly matchup basketball where coaching is magnified. If the Heat don't steal this first game, they should at least take LA to the wire. | |||||||
09-30-20 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Padres | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show | |
The Padres are less than thrilled starting Chris Paddack in this series opener. They wanted to go with Dinelson Lamet, but he left his last start this past Friday with tightness in his biceps. San Diego is worried about Paddack's lack of consistency. They have good reason to feel this way since Paddack has surrendered four or more runs while not reaching the sixth inning in four of his last eight starts. The Cardinals are starting Kwang Hyun Kim instead of ace Jack Flaherty. I understand the thinking behind this. Kim is a lefty, who the Padres have never faced. The Padres are 27-13 against righthanders, but just 10-10 versus southpaws. Kim is no slouch either going 3-0 this season with a 1.62 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The Padres are averaging 3.7 runs in their last nine games. Paddack could be on or off. So I'm going to take the extra half-run and lay juice believing this has the makings of a 4-3 type game. | |||||||
09-30-20 | White Sox v. A's -120 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The road White Sox were a sharp play against the A's in Tuesday's opening series game. But the dynamics are different for this Game 2 in a pitching matchup of lefty Dallas Keuchel versus Chris Bassitt. This isn't a fade on Keuchel, who has pitched well again this season. The A's, though, are 11-3 against lefties this season and Bassitt has been highly underrated. He's given up just one run during his last four starts spanning 26 2/3 innings. Bassitt has been particularly strong at home with a 0.72 ERA in six starts at Oakland Coliseum this season. The White Sox have lost the last seven times they've gone against a righty starter. Chicago also has lost the past six times it has been an underdog. | |||||||
09-30-20 | Reds +117 v. Braves | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
Give me Trevor Bauer at a plus price like this and I'm on the underdog Reds. Bauer is in line to win the NL Cy Young Award posting a 1.73 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. Bauer is in strong form, too, posting a 1.24 ERA in his last four starts. The Reds are peaking at the right time winning 11 of their last 14 games. Max Fried was excellent, too, for the Braves with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts. Fried, though, has a 5.14 ERA in three career appearances versus the Reds and had to leave his last start a week ago because of an ankle injury. So it remains to be seen if he'll be 100 percent. The Braves have the better offense. But Bauer should neutralize them. The Reds finished seventh in the majors in homers. | |||||||
09-29-20 | Sun +4 v. Aces | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
I didn't like Bill Laimbeer as a player and I don't like him as a coach. Las Vegas may have better talent than Connecticut. The Aces have the league's MVP, A'ja Wilson. But I don't trust Laimbeer, nor the Aces, to win this deciding Game 5 of this WNBA semifinal. The Aces had to go all out this past Sunday to win Game 4 and force this deciding matchup. Connecticut didn't play a good game and Angel McCoughtry had the game of her life for Las Vegas shooting 13-for-22 from the floor for 29 points. I expect the Sun to play much better and don't believe McCoughtry can duplicate her Game 4 performance. She averaged 14.4 points during the regular season. Connecticut has covered eight of the last nine times following a loss. Las Vegas had all but one of its starters play more than 33 minutes on Sunday. Wilson played the entire game except for the final 26 seconds. The Aces had a strong bench during the regular season, but that's been considerably weakened without injured two-time Sixth Woman of the Year Dearica Hamby. | |||||||
09-29-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
Normally the Blue Jays would go with their top pitcher, Hyun Jin Ryu, in Game 1 of this playoff series. But Ryu is coming off a 100-pitch game against the Yankees this past Thursday. So Toronto doesn't want to use Ryu on only three day's rest. Instead the Blue Jays are going with Matt Shoemaker, who has pitched just three innings since Aug. 21 because of right shoulder injury. Shoemaker has a 4.71 ERA and figures to be rusty. He last pitched eight days ago. Tampa Bay is extremely tough at Tropicana Park. The Rays have won 40 of the last 53 times there for 75 percent. Tampa Bay is hot, too, going 9-2 in its past 11 games. Blake Snell gets the call for the Rays. Snell won the Cy Young Award three seasons ago and has been a solid 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA this season. He has a career 2.81 ERA versus Toronto in 13 starts. | |||||||
09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 54 | Top | 34-20 | Push | 0 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Yes this is a high total. But it's not high enough considering the teams and situation. It's rare to find the Chiefs with a healthy Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. The Over has covered five of the six times it has happened. The Chiefs should score more than 25 points having accomplished that 84 percent of the time when Mahomes has been the starter. Kansas City's offense potentially could be even better than last season with an upgrade at tailback with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The Chiefs' defense has given up more than 6 yards per play in both of their games and face fatigue issues traveling West to East after being on the field for nearly 80 plays during last week's road overtime game against the Chargers. Kansas City is especially vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks and Lamar Jackson is the best running QB in the NFL. The Ravens should encounter little resistance on the ground, which in turn will set up Jackson's passing. The Chargers rushed for 183 yards against the Chiefs. The Ravens are a far better running team. The Over should be helped, too, by rules skewed to high-scoring games and official's calling less penalties this season. | |||||||
09-28-20 | Lightning v. Stars OVER 5 | 2-0 | Loss | -138 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
There's a reason why so much juice is attached to this 5 total. There haven't fewer than five goals scored during any of the five previous games played in this Stanley Cup championship series. I'm going to ride that trend here with the high-scoring Lightning, who led the NHL in scoring during the regular season and are averaging 3.7 goals in their last four games. Dallas has shown it can be aggressive with attacking defensemen to go with high-scoring veteran centers and forwards. The Stars have scored 3 or more goals in four of their last six games. This has been an Over series for a long time with the high end cashing 77 percent of the time during the past 26 meetings. Tampa Bay leads the series 3-2 and is heavily favored in this game. So if the Stars are trailing with time running out they are likely to pull their goalie and keep him out even if falling behind by two goals since they have nothing to lose. | |||||||
09-28-20 | Lightning -1.5 v. Stars | 2-0 | Win | 165 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
I give a lot of credit to Dallas. Few, if anybody, expected the Stars to reach Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals. I had the Stars at a nice plus price in their Game 5 double-overtime victory this past Saturday. The teams played that game without rest. Now they've had one day in between games. That's enough for the Lightning to end this series. Tampa Bay has defeated Dallas in eight of the last 11 meetings. Since Game 2, the Lightning have outplayed the Stars throughout much of the series. Tampa Bay has won 41 of the last 53 times when playing for the fourth time in six days. The Lightning also are a perfect 6-0 following a loss in the playoffs. The Stars have shown a lot of toughness and resilience especially having to go with backup goalie Anton Khudobin, who has been far better than expected in this series. But time has run out on Dallas and Khudobin. I see the Lightning ending the series with a multiple goal victory. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 52 m | Show | |
Green Bay enters New Orleans puffed up with a 2-0 mark. They're going to draw an angry Saints squad that was embarrassed losing to the Raiders this past Monday night. The Packers' offensive line was able to control Detroit's weak defensive line and a much-regressed Vikings defense line devoid of injured Danielle Hunter. Aaron Rodgers and Aaron Jones took it from there being instrumental in Green Bay producing 85 points and 1,010 yards of offense in its first two games. Green Bay, however, won't have it so easy against a good and deep Saints' defensive line. The Saints are healthy defensively compared to the Lions and Vikings. Once you get past Jones and Davante Adams, the Packers are shallow at the skill position spots and tight end without any consistent playmakers. The Packers were able to cover up their defensive deficiencies because their offense was humming. That won't be the case here. Even without Michael Thomas, the Saints have a balanced attack. As good as Jones is, he's trumped by Alvin Kamara. Given the matchup and situation, the Saints are a value at minus just a field goal. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Bucs -6 v. Broncos | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 78 h 23 m | Show | |
Part of the Broncos historically being tough at home is their edge playing at Mile High Stadium. But only 5,700 fans will be allowed to attend, which is 7.5 percent capacity. So the Broncos' home field advantage is reduced. That makes the Buccaneers even more attractive because matchup-wise they should dominate. Denver's defense is down due to injuries to Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye. The Broncos have just two sacks on 86 dropbacks having faced Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger. Tom Brady has better weapons than those two quarterbacks especially with Chris Godwin back healthy and Leonard Fournette giving Tampa Bay its best running back in several years. The Broncos did not do a good job in backing up Drew Lock, who is out with a rotator cuff strain. Jeff Driskel is a career backup and not a very good one. He's inaccurate and takes too many sacks. Denver also is without its best wideout, Courtland Sutton, and all-purpose back, Phillip Lindsay. The Buccaneers have a stout defense. They led the NFL in rush defense last season and have the pass rushers to take full advantage of Driskel's inadequacies. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos UNDER 42.5 | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 38 h 41 m | Show | |
Take out Drew Lock, Courtland Sutton and Phillip Lindsay and Denver's offense isn't so promising. Instead the Broncos face a run-stuffing elite Tampa Bay defense with nothing but dink-and-dunk backup QB Jeff Drisel and Melvin Gordon. The Bucs led the NFL in run defense last season and held their first two foes, Saints and Panthers, to 2.5 yards rushing. Gordon isn't nearly as good a back as Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara. The Buccaneers also have excellent pass rushers headed by former Bronco Shaq Barrett, who led the NFL in sacks last season. I envision the Broncos going very conservative here with their conservative coach, defensive-minded Vic Fangio. Fangio probably is one of the three best defensive coaches in the NFL. Denver's defense is not dominant anymore, but it remains respectable. The Broncos defense catches Tampa Bay at a good time. The Buccaneers' offense is not yet in sync as they transition in Tom Brady and Leonard Fournette. The Bucs aren't the pass-happy team of a year ago when Jameis Winston was under center. They are more balanced now with Fournette, a ground-and-pound inside running back. Brady hasn't been overly sharp. He's thrown interceptions in his last four games and is averaging 228 passing yards in his first two games with Tampa Bay. Neither offense is going to be helped by the weather conditions either with heavy winds expected. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 53 m | Show |
Just a terrible spot for Las Vegas. The Raiders are traveling cross-country off a monster home upset win against the Saints this past Monday night. The Patriots may have the best secondary in football. The Patriots also have limited their opponents to the third-fewest snaps. Derek Carr has gone against Bill Belichick twice. Carr has completed less than 60 percent of his throws, has fewer than a 5.0 YPA and has a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two combined games. The Raiders also could be without both of their starting offensive tackles. Richie Incognito is out with an Achilles injury and Trent Brown is dealing with a calf injury. Cam Newton appears to be a perfect fit for New England. He looked great against Seattle last week throwing for 444 yards and three TD's. Newton remains a huge running threat. The Raiders are giving up 27 points a game. Las Vegas is catching New England off a loss. The Patriots have covered 70 percent of their last 60 games following a defeat. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Bengals v. Eagles OVER 46 | 23-23 | Push | 0 | 75 h 25 m | Show | |
Scoring is on a record pace this season in the NFL aided by the official's calling far fewer penalties, which probably is by league design. So to get this total before it hits 47 - a key totals number - is a real plus. Joe Burrow continues to impress. He's looked very good both with his throwing and mobility. Burrow has the targets and a good running back, Joe Mixon, to keep the Eagles off-balance. The Eagles have a vulnerable secondary and Burrow has the receivers to take advantage. The Eagles are due for a big-scoring game. This is a right opponent for that to happen. The Bengals surrender 5.5 yards per run - good news for Miles Sanders - and have just one sack, great news for a banged-up Eagles offensive line and Carson Wentz. | |||||||
09-27-20 | 49ers v. Giants +4 | 36-9 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 45 m | Show | |
The 49ers got away with being road chalk of more than a field goal last Sunday because they were playing the Jets. The Giants aren't very good either, but they are not the Jets. They are a level higher. I don't see San Francisco escaping MetLife Stadium, a place it hates to play, with back-to-back road victories. The 49ers are just too banged-up. Yes, the Giants are down Saquan Barkley and Sterling Shepard. Barkley is their best player. Still, the Giants' injuries don't compare to how many key players are out for the 49ers. Let's start with defense where both the 49ers' line and secondary are heavily reduced with Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Dee Ford and Richard Sherman all out. Bosa and Ford are the team's best pass rushers. Sherman is their best cornerback and a team leader. That's just on defense. Now go to offense where the 49ers are without their starting center, two best running backs, top wide receiver and oh yes, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Kyle Shanahan can game plan all he wants, but he doesn't have the pieces to formulate anything other than a conservative just-try-to-get-alive-out-of-here mentality. It's not just physical with the 49ers. They are mentally not right about playing at this stadium believing the carpet helped cause some of their many injuries. The Giants are good enough to take advantage. They nearly upset the Bears on the road last week after losing Barkley early in the game. Daniel Jones has upside and other decent wide receivers besides Shepard. The Giants' defense also has made strides. At 0-2, the Giants are in must-win mode. The 49ers are going to take New York's best punch. I don't see them being able to withstand it in their crippled situation. | |||||||
09-27-20 | Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Browns | 20-34 | Loss | -117 | 34 h 15 m | Show | |
Now that the line has gotten past a touchdown, I'm going to get involved with Washington. There are a number of below-the-surface factors that point to Washington keeping this game close. Washington is better coached this season, hasn't shown any quit and ranks first in the league in sacks. Washington also is No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA defensive ranking, a metric that measures a team's production versus league average. Washington's offense is learning a new system. Improvement should come each week. The Browns get back cornerback Kevin Johnson and linebacker Mack Wilson. However, they will be without cornerback Greedy Williams, Olivier Vernon,, their second-best pass rusher, and star cornerback Denzel Ward is questionable after injuring a groin muscle in practice. Terry McLaurin is Washington's one dangerous playmaker. He could be set up for success if Ward can't go. Washington knows its offensive limitations. So they've centered their attack around throwing short passes to their running backs. This could work against Cleveland, which remains thin in the secondary. The Browns have not played well on special teams. They have one of the more worrisome kicking situations. Bottom line is the Browns, who are 12-25-1 ATS in their last 38 home games, just aren't a strong enough overall team to lay this many points against a feisty underdog. | |||||||
09-26-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 215 | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
Twice the Nuggets have dug themselves out of a 3-1 playoff series hole beating the Clippers and Jazz. No NBA team had ever done that twice during the same postseason. Denver is gutty and resilient. The Nuggets may be out of gas, too. This will be Denver's 19th playoff game. No team has played that many this season. I'm not going to go against the Nuggets here. They've earned too much respect. But if the Lakers don't get them, fatigue might. So I believe the right choice is Under the total. The Nuggets play to the second-lowest pace of any of the original 16 playoff teams. That's not going to change here. Denver knows it has to keep the Lakers out of transition in order to limit fast break points, which is an edge LA has on the Nuggets. Look for the Nuggets to play slow and deliberate. The Lakers aren't a helter skelter team either. They ranked ninth of the 16 playoff teams in tempo. Denver doesn't have a big scoring bench. The Nuggets heavily rely on emerging star Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic for their offense. The Lakers, however, finally may have found the right solution to slowing down Murray - having LeBron James guard him. This was the case during the fourth quarter of the last game. The Nuggets didn't score on eight of 10 fourth quarter possessions when James was on Murray. During this span, Murray was 0-for-3 from the field. Murray, who is averaging nearly 40 minutes per game during the playoffs, clearly was bothered by James' physical style of defense. It's a double-edged sword, though, for the Lakers because it also tires out James to play such strong defense on Murray. James has to sacrifice some of his prolific offense to make this defense sacrifice. All of this is great for the Under. As for Jokic, the Lakers have several big bodies and fouls to deal with him. So he's not going to get any easy baskets. | |||||||
09-26-20 | Stars +145 v. Lightning | 3-2 | Win | 145 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Less than 24 hours after the Lightning's controversial, 5-4, overtime victory against the Stars on Friday night the teams are back in action today. This is unusual scheduling, which could lead to a randomness element to the game. Randomness is a plus for the underdog. Sure the Stars could quit after suffering a tough defeat in such a short time frame. But they also could come out extremely fired out. This is their playoff life after all being on the verge of elimination down 3-1. Dallas has proven resilient all season. There's more of a chance, I feel, that the Lightning could suffer a letdown coming off such a big win in such a short period of time. Tampa Bay has to feel very good up 3-1 in the series. The Stars have not been outclassed. They won Game 1 by three goals. They've lost two games by one goal each, including this past one in overtime after leading by two goals. The Stars have not peaked. They are capable of playing better. This would be the perfect time to show that. | |||||||
09-26-20 | Kansas v. Baylor -17.5 | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
Baylor has owned Kansas covering the past eight times. The Jayhawks have been held to less than double-digit scoring each of the past five seasons in this matchup. I expect Baylor's defense to remain strong with defensive guru Dave Aranda taking over as head coach from Matt Ruhle. Aranda inherits a defense that gave up the 19th-fewest points, was seventh in sacks and No. 2 in takeaways. The Jayhawks showed they aren't going to be very good again by losing, 38-23, to Coastal Carolina in their first game two weeks ago. Kansas trailed 28-3 in that game. The Jayhawks' top playmaker is running back Pooka Williams, and he's banged-up. | |||||||
09-26-20 | Stephen F Austin +35.5 v. SMU | 7-50 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 60 m | Show | |
SMU has a Top 25-worthy offense. But the Mustangs have a leaky defense. The combination of SMU likely dipping into their reserves and their defensive vulnerability should allow Stephen F. Austin to cover this large number. The Lumberjacks are an FCS school. But they've played two FBS teams this season, scoring 24 points each against UTEP and UTSA. Stephen F. Austin is much improved from its 3-9 record of last year. The Lumberjacks are a decent FCS team. SMU surrendered 24 points to Texas State and 35 to North Texas. Stephen F. Austin has the firepower to produce at least 24 points again. | |||||||
09-26-20 | Iowa State v. TCU +3 | 37-34 | Push | 0 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm not buying Iowa State as a road favorite against TCU. The Horned Frogs have defeated the Cyclones four of the last five times they've hosted them. Iowa State is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times it has laid points. TCU should be improved on both sides of the ball. The Horned Frogs are extremely anxious to begin their season after an early postponement. Iowa State is 0-1. The Cyclones were upset by Louisiana-Lafayette unable to handle the Ragin Cajuns' big plays. TCU is explosive, too. Brock Purdy did not have a good game for Iowa State in that loss. Purdy certainly is worthy of respect, but so is TCU's safety tandem of Ar'Darius Washington and Trevon Moehrig. They are considered by some to be among the best safeties in college football. | |||||||
09-25-20 | Reds v. Twins -142 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -142 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The Twins, behind Jose Berrios, should take care of business at home against the Reds. Minnesota is 23-5 (82 percent) at home. That's the best home mark in baseball. The Reds have a losing road record. Berrios has a history of pitching his best at Target Field. He has a 2.67 ERA there this season holding batters to a .168 batting average. Berrios is in outstanding form, too, going 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four starts this month. Cincinnati has had a down year from many of its hitters. The Reds rank 30th in batting average and 28th in runs scored. The Reds also don't win when Tyler Mahle pitches. Mahle has a career Reds record of 13-25. His road ERA is 4.97 this season and he can be homer-prone. The Twins set a record for most homers last season and rank fifth in home runs this year. Minnesota won't lack incentive either being just one-half game ahead of the White Sox for first place in the AL Central. | |||||||
09-24-20 | Aces -5 v. Sun | 68-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
Having not played in a week, Las Vegas was ambushed, 87-62, by Connecticut in the opening game of this semifinal series. Back to their normal routine two days later in Game 2, the Aces defeated the Sun, 83-75, this past Tuesday. Connecticut had no answer for league MVP A'ja Wilson, who scored 29 points and blocked seven shots. Worse, the Sun lost their best all-around player, Alyssa Thomas, to an arm injury. Thomas leads Connecticut in assists and was second on the team in scoring and rebounding during the postseason. She could be the Sun's most indispensable player. She's not expected to play. The Aces are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one day's rest. They are the superior team, they are back to a normal routine and they draw the Sun minus their best all-around player. | |||||||
09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 48 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
Through two weeks, the NFL is on a record scoring pace with an average of 50.4 points per game. That's the highest mark since the 1970 merger between the AFL and NFL. It's not a fluke. There is new leadership in the NFL's officiating department. It's clear their emphasis - perhaps league mandated -- is to only call obvious penalties. Because penalties are at their fewest in 18 years. This has helped result in Overs covering 66 percent at 21-11. I expect another Over in this matchup being a nationally televised stand alone Thursday night game featuring offenses that are much better than their defenses. Jacksonville is a top-10 scoring team averaging 28.5 points. Gardner Minshew has underrated receiving targets and running back James Robinson has been one of the season's early surprises. The Dolphins have faced quarterbacks Cam Newton and Josh Allen. Neither is known for their accuracy. Miami allowed them to go 39-of-54 passing for 72.2 percent with a 10.6 yards per attempt and a 4-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Those two combined to rush for nearly 100 yards, too, with two rushing touchdowns. Miami is likely to be without its top cornerback also as Byron Jones has a groin injury. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good quarterback to have going for you when he's going against a bad defense and you're betting an Over. Fitzpatrick isn't afraid to throw deep. He attacks and also is careless with the ball resulting in interceptions. Fitzpatrick should be throwing a lot because Miami has a bad run-blocking offensive line and the Jaguars once strong secondary has been gutted. Jacksonville only has two sacks, too. This is a far easier defense for Fitzpatrick to solve after Miami opened against the Patriots and Bills. The Jaguars gave up 363 passing yards to the Colts in Week 1 and were torched for four TD passes by Ryan Tannehill last Sunday. | |||||||
09-24-20 | Orioles +136 v. Red Sox | 13-1 | Win | 136 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
The Red Sox have had some great years. This isn't one of them. Boston has a worse record than Baltimore. So I'm not buying the Red Sox being this large of a favorite against the Orioles in a pitching matchup of Alex Cobb versus lefty Martin Perez. Both are lower-tier rotation type starters. Cobb was solid in his last outing giving up two runs on four hits in six innings this past Friday against the Rays. He's been solid, too, in two starts versus Boston this season giving up a combined three runs on 10 hits in 10 1/3 innings. Cobb's 4.76 season ERA is lower than Perez's lifetime ERA against the Orioles. Note, too, that the Orioles are a .500 team when going against a southpaw starter. | |||||||
09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
The premise of my handicap on this Game 4 matchup begins with a quirk - the teams have been idle for three full days. The key is figuring out who benefits most from that weird scheduling. I've always thought the Celtics were the better team in this series. I still do. Yet Boston is down 2-1 in the series because of not executing an end game blowing double-digit leads in both of their Game 1 and Game 2 losses, Miami's bench outplaying the Celtics' reserves and Erik Spoelstra out-coaching Brad Stevens, which is tough to do. I don't look at the Celtics losing their new-found momentum with this lengthy time off following their 11-point victory in Game 3 this past Saturday. Instead it's a break for Boston. The Celtics have a starting five and star players advantage on Miami. The Heat don't present the elite defense Toronto did during Boston's previous series. The Heat lack the quickness and defensive studs to counter the size and athleticism of the Celtics' guards and wings. The Heat could exploit their depth and versatility during the first couple of games because they were less fatigued than Boston. The Celtics entered the series having played 10 games in 21 days with their starters logging heavy minutes. The return of Gordon Hayward from an ankle injury also holds a big impact. Not only is Hayward a playmaker who gives the Celtics a fourth excellent option to go with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker, but his ability to log at least 30 minutes keeps a much lesser player like Semi Ojeleye off the court. The Celtics can now go with their starters for 40 or so minutes and not worry about weariness because of the extra time afforded them. When the Celtics have their best five players on the court, the Heat are not a match for them. It's not that big of a fluke the Celtics have covered 73 percent of the time during the past 27 instances when playing on 3 or more day's rest. Rarely does Stevens get out-coached. He may be the best coach in the Eastern Conference. But Spoelstra is in that best coach discussion, too. I think Stevens figures things out during the long break. Putting defensive ace Marcus Smart on Goran Dragic was one good adjustment already made. The Celtics outscored the Heat, 60-36, in the paint in the last game. Boston has four stars. Miami has two with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, who is proving himself once again in this series. There's not much else Spoelstra can do. His team isn't as talented as Boston, isn't as good defensively and their conditioning edge has been removed by the long break. | |||||||
09-23-20 | Lightning v. Stars OVER 5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin fell back to Earth giving up three first period goals in Tampa Bay's 3-2 Game 2 Stanley Cup Finals win against the Stars on Monday. The Lightning led the NHL in scoring during the regular season averaging 3.5 goals a game. Their puck movement was much better than it had been in Game 1, which was won by Dallas, 4-1. Tampa Bay seems to have its attack back on track and shouldn't get so conservative and defensive-minded if building up an early lead again like it did on Monday. Tampa Bay would catch a break, too, if Dallas' Blake Comeau is out. Comeau is one of the Stars' better defensive forwards. He's a plus for the Under not the Over. Comeau is a game-time decision after getting injured in the last game. The Stars realize now they aren't going to win if they never go on the attack. The Lightning are too deep and too talented. Dallas is averaging 4 goals a game following a playoff loss. So I expect to see the Stars play aggressive like they did against the Avalanche and to effectively counterpunch like they did against the Golden Knights. | |||||||
09-23-20 | Brewers v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 1-6 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
It's taken all season, but the Brewers' bats have heated up. Milwaukee is averaging 6.3 runs in its last eight games. The Reds should do plenty of scoring drawing Adrian Houser. He hasn't been good since his first two starts of the season. Since then Houser's gone 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA. Houser has a 6.39 ERA in his last three starts not getting out of the fifth inning in any of those starts. Cincinnati ranks seventh in the league in homers. Great American Ball Park is one of the best hitting parks in the majors. The total is less than 9,though, because Trevor Bauer gets the start for the Reds. He's been outstanding this year. However, this is the first time all season Bauer is pitching on three day's rest. Bauer was tagged for two homers in a 5-0 loss to the White Sox this past Saturday. Those pitches weren't mistake pitches either. Bauer said they were in the location he wanted. That's a red flag that maybe Bauer will be vulnerable pitching on less rest than normal. | |||||||
09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets +6.5 | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
If there is anything we have learned about the Denver Nuggets is they won't quit, or give in. They proved that in coming back from 3-1 playoff deficits TWICE knocking out the Jazz and Clippers. If it wasn't for Anthony Davis hitting a contested 3-pointer right before the buzzer in Sunday's Game 2, this series would be tied instead of Denver down 0-2. The Nuggets had the game. They aren't as good as the Lakers. But the Nuggets have guts and they are not outclassed. So I'm willing to take them with this many points. There is no key number in pro basketball equivalent to the importance of 3 in the NFL. The closest is 6 because that represents two possessions. So getting the hook with 6 at plus 6 1/2 is important. Davis is having a monster series fully living up to his superstar status. LeBron James is as iconic as ever, willing the Lakers to being the favorites to win the world championship. However, the Nuggets have two stars, too. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are underappreciated compared to Davis and James. Jokic had a strong second half in Game 2. I don't think Dwight Howard will be effective anymore in handling Jokic if the Lakers choose to go that matchup route again. Murray played 44 of the 48 minutes in Game 2. When Murray was on the court, the Nuggets were a staggering plus 16 in point differential. | |||||||
09-22-20 | Rays -122 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -122 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
The Mets have to be way down after their playoff chances were dealt a big blow with a 2-1 home loss to the Rays on Monday. The Mets had Jacob deGrom going in that game while the Rays went with an opener, a strategy their manager, Kevin Cash, came up with a couple of years ago and that has been widely copied. The Mets were 12-2 in deGrom's previous 14 starts. Now the Mets have to deal with lefty Blake Snell, who won the Cy Young Award in 2018. The Mets are 6-14 versus lefty starters this season. They have scored a combined three runs in three of their last four games. Snell is having a strong September with a 2.87 ERA. He's given up one run during his last two starts spanning 10 2/3 innings. Snell is 4-1 on the season with a 3.05 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Snell also is 3-0 on the road. Tampa Bay is 18-10 on the road. The Mets are 12-16 at home. The Mets are slated to start Seth Lugo, who is 2-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Lugo is off a terrible performance against the Phillies where he surrendered six runs on eight hits in 1 1/2 innings this past Thursday. | |||||||
09-22-20 | Sun v. Aces -5 | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
Either Las Vegas or Seattle is the best team in the WNBA. But a funny thing happened to the Aces on their way to the WNBA Finals: They got ambushed by Connecticut in Game 1 of their semifinal series. This wasn't just an upset by the Sun, but a huge butt-kicking. Las Vegas lost in embarrassing fashion, 87-62, as 6-point favorites. The Aces had been idle for a week. They came into that Game 1 on Sunday overconfident based on their 18-4 regular season record and plenty rusty. It showed. I don't expect that to be the case again. The Aces should assert their superiority led by league MVP A'ja Wilson. Las Vegas has not lost two in a row all season. The Aces are 8-1 ATS when playing with one day's rest. Jasmine Thomas shot lights out for the Sun in that opening series game scoring 31 points on 13 of 18 shooting from the field. Thomas averaged 10.2 points during the regular season. Afterward Wilson was quoted as saying the Aces needed to get slapped in the face like that and "...The best thing about this loss is there's a lot of things we can control, and that's what we're going to do." | |||||||
09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 38 m | Show |
The Saints have an excellent defense with tremendous depth. It's their offense, though, that gets most of the attention. New Orleans' offense, however, isn't going to be as good as Michael Thomas is out with a high ankle sprain. There's a huge drop from Thomas, maybe the best wide receiver in the NFL, to the rest of the Saints' wideouts. The Raiders' defense is young, but has potential. It's a better unit now that underrated safety and sparkplug Jonathan Abram is healthy. He had 13 tackles in Week 1. The Saints should be able to keep Derek Carr and Las Vegas' offense in check. Carr is more game manager than gunslinger having reached 300 yards passing just once in his last 20 starts. The Saints' defensive coordinator is Dennis Allen, who is familiar with Carr having been the Raiders' head coach from 2012-2014. | |||||||
09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning -147 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
Each time Tampa Bay has lost a playoff game it came back to win the next game. I expect that pattern to continue in Game 2 of this Stanley Cup Final. So does the linemaker making the Lightning this high of a favorite. This goes to my way of thinking that the Lightning are the superior team. They certainly won't lack focus after being ambushed, 4-1, in Game 1 this past Saturday. The Stars dominated the first two periods of that game being the much fresher team. Dallas was idle for four days previous to that matchup, while the Lightning had just concluded their series against the Islanders with an overtime victory on Thursday night. The Lightning seemed to figure out the Stars in the third period posting 22 shots on goal while dominating the period. Dallas has done great to reach this point. This isn't a fade on the Stars as it is more a play on the Lightning based that they will play a much crisper and better game than they did during the first two periods of Game 1 when fatigue was an issue for them. Even with that defeat, the Lightning still have defeated the Stars in five of the past seven meetings | |||||||
09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning OVER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
Until I see a 5 1/2, I'm going to fire on the Over. A 5 total is too low on a Tampa Bay game. The Lightning led the league in scoring at 3.5 goals a game. They were flat and tired during the first two periods of Game 1 this past Saturday. That's because they had just taken out the pesky Islanders in overtime on Thursday night. The Lightning showed their offense in the third period firing 22 shots on goal. Dallas goalie Anton Khudobin has been playing well above his head. You wonder how long his magic can last? The Stars' defensemen were more aggressive in counter attacking in Game 1. Unlike other defensive-minded teams like the Islanders, the Stars can play an offensive style. They have the veteran goal scorers to produce high scoring games. The Over won in six of the seven games the Avalanche-Stars played in their series. | |||||||
09-20-20 | Patriots +4 v. Seahawks | 30-35 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 45 m | Show | |
Seattle is not an elite team. The Seahawks are a borderline playoff team that can be beat in the trenches. Their sack rate ranked among the bottom three last year. The Seahawks, though, have three things going for them - a tremendous home field, excellent coaching and Russell Wilson. All of those huge Seattle pluses are negated here. There are not going to be any fans at CenturyLink Field. It's the first time that's happened for Seattle players and it's going to feel extremely weird and strange to them. Pete Carroll is that rare coach who can coach players up. He's good, but he's trumped by Bill Belichick, the best in the business. The Patriots, by the way, have covered 69 percent of the time the past 52 times they've been an underdog. Still want to lay points against Belichick? Wilson goes from facing Atlanta's weak secondary to New England's defensive backfield, which is the deepest and best in the NFL. Stephon Gilmore can completely take away DK Metcalf. As good as Wilson is, he's not going to light up the Patriots' secondary like he did the hapless Falcons. The Patriots are the best at adapting to what they have. Their receiving corps is way down this season. So Belichick and ace play-caller Josh McDaniels have gone to a ground-oriented attack revolving around Cam Newton, one of the best running quarterbacks in the league. Jamal Adams is the only Seattle defender who can match Newton's athleticism. Adams upgrades Seattle's secondary. The Seahawks, however, are just average defensively. They have been that way for the past three years. Even with Adams, the Seahawks' secondary is nowhere the caliber it was when their Legion of Boom was intact. | |||||||
09-20-20 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -106 | 86 h 27 m | Show |
The Chiefs came on to capture the Super Bowl last season. They are even better this year. Their defense has been solid since the middle of last season and the offense is even scarier with rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire being an upgrade on their previous running backs. He's just one of two new players to Kansas City's formidable starting lineup. Having lineup and coaching continuity is vital this season. The Chiefs have that. The Chargers hold little home field advantage. Their offensive line is banged-up and quarterback Tyrod Taylor can't keep up with Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have little back-door cover capability if falling behind by double-digits. The Chargers' O-line already is banged-up missing two starters last Sunday. Kansas City has the pass rushers with Chris Jones and Frank Clark to take advantage. The Chiefs put up 34 points on the Texans last Thursday. Kansas City's offense hasn't even rounded into top shape yet. The Chargers have a better defense than Houston, but losing star safety Derwin James hurts them. The Chiefs have dominated the Chargers beating them 11 of the last 12 times. Kansas City is just on a great point spread roll period going 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 games. I'm not going to overthink this matchup. I'm just going to roll with the Chiefs. | |||||||
09-20-20 | Panthers v. Bucs -9 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 83 h 59 m | Show | |
The Buccaneers have the skill position pieces to bury a terrible Carolina defense. The Panthers lost their No. 1 cornerback James Bradberry in the offseason and their projected No. 2 cornerback, Elie Apple, is on IR. Carolina also was without cornerback Donte Jackson opening week. The Panthers are left with an inexperienced, makeshift secondary that includes special teams player Troy Pride at corner. Savvy Tom Brady should pick apart this weak defensive backfield especially since he'll likely have plenty of time to throw. Carolina did not even get a quarterback hit on Derek Carr in surrendering 34 points to the Raiders last week. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in two years. While the Panthers have the worst defense in the league, the Buccaneers have one of the best. Tampa Bay ranked No. 1 in stopping the run last season. That's extremely bad news for the Panthers, who heavily rely on running back Christian McCaffrey. Bruce Arians was not happy with the play of Brady, offensive left tackle Donovan Smith and his special teams. I expect those areas will be cleaned up in what shapes up to be a Tampa Bay kill spot. | |||||||
09-20-20 | Panthers v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 83 h 58 m | Show | |
There were 64 points scored in Carolina's 34-30 opening week loss to the Raiders. Those kinds of Overs are going to be typical in Panthers games this season. Carolina has the worst defense in the league and an up-tempo offense with the top all-purpose back in the NFL, Christian McCaffrey. That combination is going to produce a lot of Overs. Tom Brady and his left tackle Donovan Smith didn't play well opening week against the Saints on the road. Now the Buccaneers drop well down in class. Those two are in good position to atone for their poor performances. Brady and his bevy of high-caliber receivers should light up an inexperienced Panthers defense that allowed game-manager type Derek Carr to have an 8.0 YPA and failed to record not only a sack, but failed to even get a quarterback hit. The Raiders hadn't scored that many points in their last 29 games. Brady is most comfortable in the pocket. He shouldn't be bothered. Brady with time still is a high level quarterback. Carolina should contribute to this total going Over, too. The Panthers have an aggressive spread-the-ball around passing approach and a new deep threat, Robby Anderson. McCaffrey is a major plus because defenses key on him rather than quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. | |||||||
09-20-20 | Giants +5.5 v. Bears | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 28 m | Show | |
The Bears haven't won their first two games of the season in seven years. They were lucky to get past the Lions opening week rallying from a 23-6 deficit. The Bears launched their comeback after the Lions' top three cornerbacks all went out of the game with injuries. I remain unimpressed with Mitchell Trubisky. He only plays well against the Lions and he stunk for three quarters. The Giants' defense has improved especially in the defensive line. The Lions bashed the Bears for 151 yards rushing. So Saquon Barkley should be in for a big game. The Bears are missing run-stuffing nose tackle Eddie Goldman, who opted out of the season, and their best pass rushers (Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn) are both banged-up. Daniel Jones set a rookie record with 18 touchdowns on the road last season. The Giants are expected to get back Golden Tate, too. The Giants have been excellent as road 'dogs covering 10 of the last 12 times in that role. The Bears have been one of the poorer point spread teams going 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games. | |||||||
09-19-20 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 206 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
Understandably this is playoff basketball so totals are going to be low. But the Celtics aren't playing the Raptors here. Miami isn't the defensive team that Toronto was. The Celtics are sure to be fired-up after blowing huge leads in the first two games to fall behind 0-2. If Boston builds up another big lead it won't coast. The Celtics will stay on the attack. There's also the chance Gordon Hayward makes his series debut. That would give Boston a legitimate fourth scoring weapon to go with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker, who shot much better in Game 2. The Heat defense got through the Bucks because Milwaukee lacked a quickness advantage. The Heat don't have that edge on the Celtics. Miami, though, has been getting the needed contributions from players besides Jimmy Butler. The Heat scored 106 in the last game despite Butler shooting just 4-of-11 from the floor and scoring a meager 14 points. Miami's motion-laden offense has been successful exploiting Walker's weak defense. The Heat have averaged 109.7 points in regulation during their last seven games facing the Celtics and Bucks, who gave up the eighth-fewest points and ranked first in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season. If the Heat are able to build up a big lead, I could envision a bubbling-over frustrated Celtics team committing a lot of fouls. | |||||||
09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning OVER 5 | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay is the better team, but I'm not going to buck the hot Stars especially since the Lightning have a short turnaround after their Thursday overtime victory against the Islanders to clinch that series. So instead of getting involved with a side, I'm going the total route where I see each team producing at least two goals apiece. I highly doubt backup Stars goalie Anton Khudobin can repeat the magic he did against the Golden Knights when he stopped 153 of 161 shots for a .950 save percentage. The Lightning have a more potent attack than Las Vegas and they have their top playoff scorer, Brayden Point, back in the lineup. There's even the outside chance Steven Stamkos could suit up. He has yet to play during the Stanley Cup. Tampa Bay is averaging 3.3 goals during the playoffs. This is in line with the regular season when the Lightning led the NHL in scoring at 3.5 goals per game. The Lightning has three attacking lines and scoring depth up and down their roster. Dallas has shown it can play and win with a wide open style. The Stars took out the Avalanche in that fashion. It wouldn't surprise me if the well-rested Stars came out super aggressive to take advantage of Tampa Bay's fatigue issue. | |||||||
09-19-20 | Central Florida -7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
Central Florida has been one of the most impressive teams in the country during the last three seasons going 35-4 while covering 64 percent of its away contests during this time frame. The Knights are proven road warriors covering 14 of their last 18 away matchups, winning 10 road games by more than a touchdown during this three-year span. The Knights start out fast, too, going 9-0 ATS during the first three games of the season the last three years. The Knights draw Georgia Tech, which is playing a non-conference game here. The Yellow Jackets opened their season upsetting fellow ACC foe, Florida State, 16-13 on the road as nearly two-touchdown 'dogs. So this is a potential flat spot and letdown spot for Georgia Tech. Not to take anything away from Georgia Tech, but Florida State did not play well. Central Florida has a much stronger offense than Georgia Tech, which still is in rebuild mode under second-year coach Geoff Collins. | |||||||
09-19-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia State +16.5 | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
Louisiana Lafayette cracked The Associated Press Top 25 for the first time since 1943 after upsetting Iowa State, 31-14, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs. That's heady stuff. But it also puts the Cajuns in a tough spot this week laying more than two touchdowns on the road to Sun Belt Conference rival Georgia State. The Panthers are respectable having gone to a bowl two of the last three years under coach Shawn Elliott. They opened with a victory against Tennessee of the SEC last season on their way to a winning record. The Panthers have 16 starters back. Not to diminish the Cajuns' huge upset of the Cyclones, but they did score touchdowns on a 95-yard kickoff return and 83-yard punt return. | |||||||
09-19-20 | Syracuse +21 v. Pittsburgh | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
I don't want to overreact to these team's opening games. Pittsburgh destroyed Austin Peay while Syracuse got buried in the fourth quarter by North Carolina. But I do keep in mind that Austin Peay isn't a Division I team while North Carolina is a top-25 team. So Pittsburgh definitely is stepping up in class. I don't trust Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi to cover a big margin because I'm never sold on his offenses and I'm not a fan of Pitt QB Kenny Pickett. The Panthers also have a bad record as home chalk - 8-19 ATS the past 27 times in that role. I recall last September when Pittsburgh hosted Delaware. The Panthers were 27 1/2-point favorites. It took a fourth quarter touchdown for the Panthers to eke out a 17-14 victory. I expect Syracuse to play a full four quarters, something it didn't against North Carolina. The Orangemen were hanging in through three quarters in that matchup before the game got out of hand. | |||||||
09-18-20 | Padres v. Mariners +1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
On the surface, the oddsmaker seems justified making the Padres this big of a road favorite against a bad team in a pitching matchup of righty Chris Paddack versus lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who was a terrible pitcher last year and has a 5.35 ERA this season. But there are factors pointing to the Mariners hanging in if not winning outright. Seattle is home where they are an above .500 team. The Mariners have won seven of the last eight times when going against a righty starter. Paddack left his most recent start because he suffered an ankle injury. Paddack may not be 100 percent. He also is not pitching as well as he did earlier in the season. Paddack has yielded five earned runs in his last 6 2/3 innings. Kikuchi isn't as bad as he was last season when he was introduced to the major leagues. His velocity is higher this season and he's cut way back on giving up homers. He also has 39 strikeouts in 37 innings. Kikuchi defeated the Padres, 8-3, in San Diego on Aug. 27 The Padres are 24-11 against righthanded starting pitching, but just 8-8 when facing lefty starters. | |||||||
09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 56 h 49 m | Show |
Right before the NBA shut down, the Lakers were playing better than any team posting a late February victory against the Celtics and early March wins against the Bucks and Clippers. It has taken six months and playing in a bubble, but the Lakers are back to being the best team in the NBA. LeBron James is on a mission. I haven't seen a mega-superstar so committed to winning a championship since Michael Jordan. The Lakers can win going big, or win playing small ball. Their defense is top-notch and they have tremendous versatility to go with James and fellow superstar Anthony Davis. The Lakers handled Damian Lillard, the hottest player in the bubble, and they held the high-scoring Rockets to 99.3 points per game during the last three games of that series. The Nuggets are not in the Lakers' class. The Nuggets are still on Cloud 9 after coming from a 3-1 deficit to pull out a shocking series win against the heavily favored Clippers. They beat the Clippers in Game 7 on Tuesday night. I don't think the Nuggets will be ready for this Game 1 matchup. It comes too soon for them. The Lakes have been idle for six days. Yes, the Lakers lost Game 1 to Portland and Game 1 to Houston before winning the rest of the games in those series without another loss. LA has learned its lesson. Look for the Lakers to come out fully ready after those previous Game 1 mishaps. | |||||||
09-18-20 | Twins v. Cubs -125 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
The Twins' power is way down from last season and they've struggled on the road going 10-16. The Cubs are 18-12 at Wrigley Field and have the better pitching matchup here with Kyle Hendricks facing lefty Rich Hill. Hendricks is in outstanding form with a 2-0 record and 1.66 ERA during his past three starts. Hill is capable of pitching gems. He's also capable of leaving the game after one pitch. Hill is 40 years old and one of the most fragile pitchers in the league. Hill has a 3.81 ERA this season. The Cubs are 6-3 going against southpaws. | |||||||
09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 43 h 16 m | Show |
Normally it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team for a Thursday game. But Cleveland's home edges are reduced. There won't be close to 70,000 screaming Browns fans at FirstEnergy Stadium. Instead seating capacity will be limited to 6,000. The Bengals know the Browns well being heated division rivals. Cincinnati also has coaching continuity. This is something the Browns don't have with first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski and a new offensive system. The Bengals displayed promise and hope in their 16-13 opening week loss to the Chargers. They led the Chargers in the fourth quarter. Cincinnati was done in by poor place-kicking. That game should have at least reached overtime. The Browns, though, also are dealing with kicking woes bringing in Cody Parkey to replace Austin Seibert, who the Bengals promptly picked up maybe to pick up some secrets about the Browns. Cleveland is likely to run the ball a lot at the Bengals. The Browns weren't able to pound away opening week because they fell too far behind the Ravens. Getting smashed by Baltimore, 38-6, surely does not help the Browns' fragile morale. The Bengals should be able to throw effectively on the Browns, who are without active linebacker Mack Wilson and already have a depleted secondary down three projected starters. Safety Grant Delpit is out for the season, while cornerbacks Kevin Johnson and Greedy Williams didn't play in Week 1 and aren't likely to be ready here during this short turnaround. The Browns probably are going to be forced to use special teams player Tavierre Thomas as a slot cornerback. Thomas played just three defensive snaps last season and 28 defensive snaps this past Sunday. The Bengals have a deep wide receiving group with A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, John Ross and Auden Tate. Joe Burrow is at his best operating a spread-type offense, which the Bengals are smart enough to employ. Burrow can negate Myles Garrett and Cleveland's other pass rushers by effectively throwing short passes and using top-10 running back Joe Mixon on the ground. Cincinnati has covered nine of the last 11 in this series and also is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times as a road 'dog. The Browns aren' good enough, nor trustworthy enough, to lay nearly a touchdown against a much-improved division foe. | |||||||
09-17-20 | Lightning v. Islanders +145 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
I'm not convinced Tampa Bay has the mental toughness to close out this Eastern Conference finals after losing, 2-1, to the Islanders in double overtime this past Tuesday. That was the Lightning's opportunity. The Islanders still face elimination down 3-2 in the series. But New York is riding house money. The pressure remains on the Lightning. Tampa Bay has been in this situation before - and failed miserably blowing 3-2 series leads in 2016 and 2018 in the Eastern Conference finals. The double overtime win gives the Islanders new-found momentum. New York goalie Semyon Varamov also looked back in good form. The Lightning still could be without Brayden Point, their leading scorer in the playoffs. At this plus price, I'll take a shot with the well-coached, disciplined and mentally tough Islanders. They may not win, but they certainly won't go gently into the night. | |||||||
09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -133 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -133 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
The scoreboard shows the Heat up 1-0 in this series after winning Game 1 in overtime. I had Boston on the money line in Game 1 and I'm sticking with the Celtics on the money line in Game 2 instead of laying a short number. I'm doing it because I'm convinced the Celtics are the better team. I understand the Heat won Game 1. But the oddsmaker agrees with me as the Celtics are slightly larger favorites than they were in the opening game. Boston should have won Game 1 owning at least a two-possession lead for nearly the entire game. But the Celtics blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead and let the game slip away. The Celtics own the matchup edges. Miami's defense isn't as good as the Raptors, who the Celtics beat in the previous series. The Heat lack the defensive quickness to stay with Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylon Brown. And offensively, Jimmy Butler is really the Heat's only consistent scoring weapon. I certainly don't expect Jae Crowder to score 22 points on 7-of-11 shooting, including 5-of-9 from 3-point range, to come up that big again in Game 2 as he did in the opener. He averaged 10.5 points during the regular season. Walker needs to play better and the Celtics' transition defense needs to be turned up a notch like it was against the Raptors. Those shouldn't areas should not be difficult to fix. I'm not down on the Heat. I respect them enough to play Boston on the money line rather than risk laying a short number. But I've always thought the Celtics to be the better team and an opponent that Miami doesn't match-up as well against as it did against the Bucks. | |||||||
09-17-20 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -129 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
The Rangers snuck past the Astros, 1-0, on Wednesday. I see the Astros bouncing back in a big way from that frustrating defeat. Texas manager Chris Woodward continues to experiment and build for next season. The Rangers had five rookies in their starting lineup during Tuesday's opening game of the series. The Rangers are 0-9 the past nine times when playing Game 3 of a series. Jordan Lyles is slated to start for Texas. He probably should no longer be in any team's starting rotation with a 7.80 ERA. Woodward could use this as a bullpen game so Lyles' stint could be short. Houston starter Framber Valdez began the season hot, but has cooled off during his last two starts. He should get back on track against the Rangers, a team he held to three runs with eight strikeouts in seven innings on Sept. 1. The Astros have won 12 of their last 14 home games against the Rangers, who have lost by 3 or more runs during eight of their last nine losses. | |||||||
09-17-20 | Mets v. Phillies -121 | 10-6 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
I want Aaron Nola going for me especially against the cold-hitting Mets at home. The price is low enough to get involved. Nola has a 2.40 ERA with a 0.89 WHIP. He's been even better during his last four starts compiling a 1.65 ERA and 0.88 ratio. The Mets have scored just 11 runs in their last four games, an average of 2.7 runs. Converted starter Seth Lugo is slated to start for New York. The Mets are 0-4 in his last four road starts. Philadelphia has won nine of the last 10 times it has been favored at home. The Phillies are 7-1 in their last eight games at Citizens Bank Park when going up against a righty starter, which Lugo is. | |||||||
09-17-20 | Diamondbacks v. Angels UNDER 10.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
After a pair of high-scoring games where a combined 32 runs were scored, I'm expecting things to settle down in the finale of this three-game series. It's a rare afternoon start at Angel Stadium, which usually is bad for hitters later in the game when they have more trouble picking up the pitch. Listed starting pitchers are lefty Alex Young versus Griffin Canning. Anthony Rendon is the only Angels hitter who has ever faced Young, and he's 0-for-3 against him. Young has gone back and forth from starting and relieving. He pitched in relief this past Friday giving up two runs on two hits in 5 1/3 innings against Seattle. The Angels are 25th in batting against lefthanded pitchers. Canning is a promising young pitcher who has flashed at times, but needs more consistency. Canning has a similar advantage to Young in that the Diamondbacks don't know him. Jon Jay is Arizona's only player who has ever batted against Canning. | |||||||
09-16-20 | Diamondbacks v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
An excuse is hardly needed to fade the sinking Diamondbacks. But I have an excellent excuse in this matchup - Dylan Bundy. Even with their victory against the Angels on Tuesday night, the Diamondbacks still have lost 20 of their last 26 games with five of their past six defeats occurring by multiple runs. Bundy has become an ace. All it took was getting out of the AL East and a huge hitter's park in Baltimore to joining the Angels and their pitcher-friendly park. Bundy is 5-2 with a 2.48 ERA that shrinks to 2.29 if you just go by his last three starts. The Angels just faced lefty Madison Bumgarner last night, reaching him for eight earned runs and 13 hits in 5 1/3 innings. Now the Angels draw a second straight southpaw in Caleb Smith, a youngster who has yet to prove he can consistently pitch effectively away from Marlins Park after being dealt to the Diamondbacks by the Marlins at the trade deadline. | |||||||
09-16-20 | Royals -125 v. Tigers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
The Royals had won six in a row until losing to the Tigers on Tuesday. The price certainly is reasonable to back the Royals in a pitching matchup of Brady Singer versus Tarik Skubal. Singer is coming off his best start shutting out the Indians on one hit in eight innings with eight strikeouts this past Thursday. Singer threw a season-high 119 pitches in that game, but is pitching on five full day's rest. Singer draws a Tigers lineup minus injured second baseman Jonathan Schoop, who was leading the team in homers. Skubal has been terrible this season with a 7.27 ERA. | |||||||
09-16-20 | Red Sox v. Marlins OVER 9 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
Each of these teams should be good for at least four runs apiece in a pitching matchup of lefties Mike Kickham versus rookie Trevor Rogers. Boston has scored four or more runs in seven of its past nine games. Rogers is set to make just his fifth start. He was bombed by the Phillies in his last outing giving up eight earned runs in three-plus innings last Friday. He has an 8.36 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP during his last three starts. The Red Sox have the fifth highest batting average and are seventh in slugging percentage versus lefthanded pitching. The Marlins' lineup has become far more respectable with the addition of Starling Marte. The Marlins are above average in batting average against southpaws. Kickham will be making just his second big league start since 2013 after going four innings a week ago. The Marlins have scored 4 or more runs in 11 of their last 15 games. | |||||||
09-15-20 | Islanders v. Lightning OVER 5 | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 58 m | Show | |
Anytime the Lightning are involved and the total is less than 5 1/2, I'm automatically attracted to the Over. Moreso, with the Islanders on the brink of playoff elimination where they will be forced to take chances and empty the net if trailing. Tampa Bay has three strong scoring lines. This has been on display because the Lightning have scored 3 or more goals in eight of their past 10 playoff games. The Islanders, who rely on defense and discipline, have yielded three or more goals to Tampa Bay in three of the four games during the series. Islanders goalie Semyon Varlamov could be wearing down from the grueling playoffs because his net play has considerably slipped. | |||||||
09-15-20 | Mets v. Phillies +116 | 1-4 | Win | 116 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
The Phillies are banged-up with multiple injuries. But I'm attracted to them as a home 'dog in a pitching matchup of Rick Porcello versus Jake Arrieta. I see the veteran Arrieta stepping up in the wake of injuries to starting pitchers Zach Wheeler and Spencer Howard. Arrieta has a 3.55 ERA in his last two starts. He holds a lifetime 3.17 ERA in 15 starts versus the Mets. Philadelphia has won 10 of its last 12 home games. It's an insult to Cy Young that Porcello once won that award. He may be the worst Cy Young Award winner of all-time. Porcello is nothing more than an innings-eater and not a very good one at that. He's been a major disappointment for the sucker Mets with a 1-4 record and 6.07 ERA. This is the Phillies' third look at Porcello this season. Porcello has a 4.50 ERA in two starts against Philadelphia. The Mets have lost seven of the last nine meetings in this series. Wrong team favored here. | |||||||
09-15-20 | Heat v. Celtics -118 | Top | 117-114 | Loss | -118 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
The Bucks matched up poorly against the Heat. Perhaps also distracted by spearheading a one-game boycott, the Bucks were drummed out of the playoffs by Miami. Credit to the Heat. But now Miami draws a well-focused opponent it doesn't match up well against. The Heat might have grabbed Game 1 in this series with a situational advantage since they are rested while the Celtics had to go the full seven games to eliminate the Raptors. However, the NBA schedulemakers negated that edge for Miami by scheduling this game four days after Boston took out Toronto. That's enough time for the Celtics to rest, recuperate and fully game-plan for Miami. The Heat, on the other hand, last played a full week ago. So they have to deal with a rust factor and lost momentum. The Heat finished 12th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They stepped up defensively against the Bucks. They did that by keying on Giannis Antetokounmpo and gambling that the rest of the Bucks weren't good enough. That worked because the Bucks weren't the same team inside the bubble they were during their dominant regular season when they won 53 of their first 63 games. The Bucks lacked off-the-dribble threats aside from Antetokounmpo. The Celtics have a different makeup. They don't have one superstar. Instead they have several stars - Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum - a strong bench and the best coach in the league, Brad Stevens. The Celtics actually are going to find scoring easier against the Heat than they did against the Raptors, who had the No. 1 defense in the league. The Celtics are vulnerable to fast backcourts and teams who have multiple shot creators. Aside from Jimmy Butler, the Heat don't have that, nor can they match Boston's trio of star power. The Celtics have the needed defensive flexibility, too, that Milwaukee lacked. The Celtics can play up-tempo if it suits their purpose, or handle a half-court game that Miami favors. Prior to this season, the Heat hadn't won a playoff series since 2016. They lack the necessary deep playoff pedigree that Boston has from reaching the conference finals in 2017 and 2018. Upsetting the flawed Bucks has made the Heat overvalued. The money line price is low enough to back the superior Celtics. | |||||||
09-14-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
The total for each of the first four games of this Western Conference Finals series has been lined at 5 1/2. Each game has gone Under. The oddsmaker has finally adjusted moving the total down to 5. So now is the time to play Over. The Golden Knights are in desperation territory down 3-1. Las Vegas finds itself on the brink of elimination despite outshooting the Stars, 105-67. Dallas backup goalie Anton Khudobin has played well above his head. The Stars realize they can't keep getting lucky winning low-scoring games while relying on Khudobin to bail them out. They have to step up their attack like did when they took out Colorado during their previous series. Dallas averaged four goals per game during that seven-game series. The Stars' power play has managed just one goal. So that is due to change, too. I envision a much more up-tempo game than what we've seen so far in the series. The Golden Knights will be aggressively attacking with all four of their quality lines. This could result in a much higher scoring game for them. If it fails, the total still is very much live to go Over as the Golden Knights won't hesitate to pull their goalie early if down by one goal and keep their goalie on the bench, too, if the Stars score an empty-netter to go up by two goals. This is a scenario that happens when teams face elimination. | |||||||
09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 108 h 19 m | Show |
The public appeal of the Cowboys and the market being down on the Rams after last season's disappointment have produced a mispriced line here. The Rams should not be a field goal home 'dog to Dallas. Although there will be no fans in the stand, the Rams have extra motivation for a 44-21 embarrassing loss they suffered to the Cowboys last season and this being the first game at their new SoFi Stadium. Jared Goff is close to an elite quarterback - when he's playing at home where he has a 31-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two seasons compared to a 22-to-17 ratio on the road during this time span. Goff is a pocket passer. The Cowboys don't have their full complement of star pass rushers yet. Dallas' secondary is the most vulnerable part of its defense. Dallas has a high-powered attack. However, the Cowboys' offense may need time to get into gear. Mike McCarthy didn't coach last year. He had a shortened offseason and no preseason to to implement his style. The Cowboys are down two of their offensive linemen from a year ago being minus center Travis Frederick and right tackle La'el Collins. Then there is the Cowboys record as a road favorite. It's not good. Dallas lost straight-up laying points on the road last season to the Eagles, Bears, Jets and Saints, who were using Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. | |||||||
09-13-20 | Bucs +3.5 v. Saints | 23-34 | Loss | -104 | 104 h 16 m | Show | |
No team improved themselves more in the offseason than the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay went 7-9 last season, but two of those losses occurred in overtime and three other defeats were by four points or fewer. Now the Bucs have increased their respect level by adding Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski. Brady is going to produce points with receiving stars Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to go with a trio of very good tight ends - Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. Tampa Bay's offense can trade points with Drew Brees. While Brady received all the off-season attention, the Bucs maintained their underrated defensive front of Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. The Bucs ranked No. 1 in run defense last season and Barrett led the NFL in sacks. The Saints have a losing record in season-openers during Sean Payton's 14 years. They are 1-5 during their past six opening games and 0-10 ATS during the first two weeks of the season in the past five years. | |||||||
09-13-20 | Cardinals +7.5 v. 49ers | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 104 h 5 m | Show | |
There will be times to back the 49ers this season. This isn't one of them. Not with all the players the 49ers may not have. They could be the most banged-up team in the NFL right now. The Cardinals were undervalued by the oddsmaker last season when they went 9-5-2 ATS and they are at the start of this season with this large of a spread. Kyler Murray displayed great potential last year. He'll make a jump in this his second season surrounded by stronger weapons, including top-five wideout DeAndre Hopkins. Arizona also looks much improved defensively. If you discount a meaningless 49ers defensive touchdown on the final play of the game, the Cardinals lost to San Francisco by a combined seven points last season, an average loss of 3.5 points. The 49ers are weaker this season and the Cardinals are stronger. These teams are familiar with each other. It can't be overlooked either that division 'dogs have covered 81 percent on opening week since 2014, a sampling of 27 games. | |||||||
09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 45.5 | 43-34 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 34 m | Show | |
These two teams know and hate each other. The intensity level is at its peak. It's shown on the defensive end where five of the past six meetings have gone under. This includes both games last season, which had a combined 37 and 33 points, respectively. The Vikings are in double revenge. Minnesota's defensive line usually gives the Packers problems. The Vikings have a top safety tandem in Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris. Minnesota's defensive weakness are youthful and untested cornerbacks. Defensive guru Mike Zimmer has a history of coaching up cornerbacks, though. Minnesota has a run-oriented conservative offense. Kirk Cousins is not a gunslinger. The Vikings will be staying on the ground. The Packers have switched to that style, too, under Matt LaFleur. Green Bay could be minus Billy Turner, who is its third best offensive lineman. He suffered a knee injury during practice and isn't likely to play. The Packers are thin in the offensive line and have bad receivers behind Davante Adams. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $864 |
William Burns | $483 |
Tom Macrina | $481 |
Joey Tron | $380 |
Ross Benjamin | $375 |
Ricky Tran | $369 |
Big Al McMordie | $234 |
Jack Jones | $161 |
Jesse Schule | $121 |
Will Rogers | $10 |