Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-05-19 | Baylor +2.5 v. Kansas State | 31-12 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show | |
I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer much more than Kansas State QB Skylar Thompson. Brewer is one of the more underrated QB's in college football. He has yet to throw an interception and has connected on 66 percent of his throws while accounting for 10 touchdowns. The Bears rank No. 2 in the Big 12 in run defense and scoring defense. They haven't yielded more than 21 points in a game. The Wildcats don't have the weapons Baylor has. The Bears can just concentrate on Kansas State running back James Gilbert. Denzel Mims gives Baylor the most dynamic player on the field. The Wildcats were exposed by Oklahoma State last week suffering their first loss, 26-3, after winning their first three games. Kansas State surrendered 526 yards in that loss. The Wildcats lack a pass rush and aren't good at stopping the run either. I have less respect for the Wildcats now that Bill Snyder isn't their head coach anymore. | |||||||
10-05-19 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 53 | 13-24 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
Marshall can run the ball ranking 37th in the country in rushing. MIddle Tennessee State is weak stopping the run ranking 127th. The Blue Raiders have a bad defense all the way around surrendering 40 or more points in three of their four games. The Blue Raiders have played a very difficult schedule, however, taking on Michigan, Iowa and Duke. They are better offensively than what they have shown due to the competition. QB Asher O'Hara has completed better than 70 percent of his throws with an 8-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Marshall ranks 111th in pass defense. | |||||||
10-04-19 | Jets +130 v. Devils | 5-4 | Win | 130 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
The Devils should be much improved with the additions of P.K. Subban, Wayne Simmonds and Nikita Gusev. But it's going to take time for all these new faces to gell. This is New Jersey's opening game. The Jets have the advantage of already having played a game. They lost 6-4 on the road to the Rangers Thursday night. The Jets outshot the Rangers, 47-32. Corey Schneider is slated to be in net for New Jersey. He hasn't been good the past several seasons because of injuries. I consider him now a below average goalie. The Jets are one of the most potent scoring teams in the league especially with Patrik Laine back on board. Winnipeg is 4-0-2 in its last six meetings with New Jersey. | |||||||
10-04-19 | Edmonton v. Hamilton OVER 46.5 | 12-42 | Win | 100 | 75 h 45 m | Show | |
The two teams met just two weeks ago. There were a combined 15 punts, but still 57 points were scored in Hamilton's 30-27 victory. That was the fourth time in the last five meetings the Over has covered in this series. The Tiger-Cats lead the CFL in scoring at 29.8 points a game. Dane Evans is not afraid to attack downfield averaging 11.2 yards per attempt in three of his last four games. The Eskimos have permitted 25 or more points in five of their last six games. | |||||||
10-04-19 | Cardinals -123 v. Braves | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -123 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
The Cardinals have been red-hot during the past two months winning 34 of their last 50 games, including seven of their last nine road contests. Jack Flaherty has been a major cog during the Cardinals' stretch drive. There hasn't been a better pitcher during August and September than Flaherty. He is 7-2 with a 0.91 ERA during his past 15 starts. He has a 0.41 ERA in his past three starts and a 1.48 day time ERA on the season. All this bodes well for the Cardinals, who knocked off the Braves by scoring a combined six runs in the eighth and ninth inning to win, 7-6, in Game 1 of the series on Thursday. It was the Cardinals' 10th win in their last 13 road games versus Atlanta. The Braves have outstanding young talent. But some of that talent needs more maturity and is in a rough bounce back spot after such a tough home loss in the series opener. Atlanta starter Mike Foltynewicz has not fared well historically against the Cardinals with a 3-4 mark and 7.64 ERA in seven career starts. | |||||||
10-03-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers -165 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
I want the Dodgers going for me in this opening National League playoff series. LA is rested, has the better offense and bullpen. I also like the starting pitching matchup from a Dodgers perspective, too. Walker Buehler has been dominant when pitching at Dodger Stadium going 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA there. The Dodgers think so much of Buehler they started him ahead of Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are 15-3 when Buehler has pitching the opener of a series. Corbin has been much better at home than on the road where his away record is 6-5 with a 4.18 ERA compared to 8-2 with a 2.40 ERA at Nationals Park. Corbin is squaring off against an LA squad that set an NL record with 279 home runs and led the NL in runs. | |||||||
10-03-19 | Temple v. East Carolina UNDER 48 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
East Carolina has played five games under new head coach Mike Houston. Each game has gone Under the total. Will this one break the Under streak? I say no. I thought QB Holton Ahlers would be a lot better for the Pirates. But he hasn't. Ahlers has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and his downfield throws have lacked accuracy. Temple has surrendered only one touchdown pass all season. The Owls give up just 17.2 points per game. They just defeated Georgia Tech, 24-2, last week. East Carolina has held its last two foes, William & Mary and Old Dominion, to an average of 14 points. Temple QB Anthony Russo has been picked off four times in the last two games. Russo has thrown at least one interception in all four of Temple's games. He completed just 9-of-22 passes against Georgia Tech. Note temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s in Greenville with extremely high humidity. So that could take a toll on the players. | |||||||
10-03-19 | Panthers v. Lightning -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 151 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
The Panthers have missed the playoffs for the past three seasons. That string may end this season as the Panthers should be much improved. They've added players and opened up their checkbook. But it's going to take a while to get things going. This is a bad spot for the Panthers drawing Tampa Bay on the road. The Lightning dominated the regular-season tying the NHL record for most wins with 62. However, the Lightning were shockingly swept in the first round of the playoffs by Columbus. The Lightning have been in angry mood during preseason. Now they finally can put last season's early Stanley Cup disappointment behind them. They draw in-state rival Florida and the Panthers' new goalie, Sergei Bobrovsky. The irony isn't lost here. It was Bobrovsky who helped the Hurricanes sweep the Lightning in the playoffs with his stellar goal play. Tampa Bay has dominated this series winning the past six meetings while averaging 5.1 goals in these games. The Lightning will be sky high for this long-awaited season-opener especially looking to get revenge on Bobrovsky. | |||||||
10-02-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 165 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
The Golden Knights have been pointing to this matchup after losing to the Sharks in the playoff last season in a bitter and controversial series. Las Vegas gave an indication of this burying the San Jose, 5-1, this past Sunday in front of a sold out home crowd in the final preseason game. The Sharks haven't been sharp during preseason going 1-5. San Jose will be without suspended forward Evander Kane, too. I believe this is a kill spot for Las Vegas. So taking a big plus price on the puck line makes more sense to me than laying heavy juice on the side. | |||||||
10-02-19 | Capitals +129 v. Blues | 3-2 | Win | 129 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
Anytime the Capitals are an underdog my first look is going to be on them. Washington has retained its core group that helped win the Stanley Cup two seasons ago. The Capitals have had all summer to think about being drummed out of the playoffs in the first round by Carolina last year. The Capitals should be sky-high for this matchup against the defending Stanley Cup champion Blues. St. Louis is still on Cloud 9 after winning its first Stanley Cup championship in its 51-year history. The Blues will be raising their Stanley Cup banner before the game in celebration. So the Blues aren't likely to be as focused and motivated as the Capitals. Washington has enjoyed good success when playing in St. Louis winning five of the past seven times there. | |||||||
10-01-19 | Brewers v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
On the surface, this sounds like a low-scoring game. The Brewers are going with Brandon Woodruff while the Nationals are pitching Max Scherzer with Washington manager Dave Martinez saying Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg could be used out of the bullpen if necessary. Perception doesn't fit reality here, though. Woodruff just came back from a two-month oblique injury. He's only pitched four innings since returning and won't be able to go far in this game. That means a lot of work for the Brewers bullpen. Josh Hader is the only Milwaukee reliever I trust. As for the Nationals, Scherzer isn't the imposing monster of past seasons. He was hurt this season with a back injury. He doesn't have a great postseason history - 4-5 with a 3.73 ERA in 16 career playoff games - and isn't in good form with a 6.11 ERA during his past three starts. Washington's relief pitchers had the highest ERA in the majors at 5.66. Corbin just pitched on Saturday. So he would be on short rest. If Martinez were to pitch Strasburg in relief it would have to be in absolute desperation because he would be using up his two best starters just in the wildcard game. Both teams have been swinging hot bats. The Brewers are averaging 5.9 runs in their last 10 games, while the Nationals are averaging 6.7 runs during their past eight games. The weather forecast is calling for temperatures to be in the 80s with a slight wind blowing out. So it's an excellent setup for the hitters. | |||||||
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
This matchup has lost much of its star power with no Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and A.J. Green. It's going to be decided in the trenches - and that's where the Steelers hold a monster edge to go with home field and the mental confidence of having defeated Cincinnati eight straight times. The Bengals can't run the ball, nor stop the run. That's a very bad combination especially when playing Pittsburgh on the road. The Bengals are last in the NFL in rushing and second from the bottom in run defense. The Steelers aren't going to be fancy here. They don't need to be. Mason Rudolph should play better in his second NFL start and first at home. He doesn't need to play great, just steady behind a very good offensive line. Pittsburgh defense will be fired up. It played very well at San Francisco last week. Rookie Devin Bush gives the Steelers' needed linebacker speed that they haven't had since Ryan Shazier was injured. Andy Dalton needs weapons to succeed. Instead he's saddled with a bottom-five offensive line. Bad offensive lines don't travel well. Cincinnati has lost its last seven away matchups. | |||||||
09-29-19 | Cowboys -134 v. Saints | 10-12 | Loss | -134 | 96 h 55 m | Show | |
The Cowboys held the Saints to 10 points last season - when New Orleans had Drew Brees at QB. Teddy Bridgewater is a massive downgrade. Dallas is giving up fewer than 15 points per game this season. Bridgewater is not a downfield threat and doesn't have the mobility he once possessed. The Cowboys have the athletic and quick linebackers needed to contain Alvin Kamara and Bridgewater's short passing game. Dallas is well balanced and the healthier team. Dak Prescott is playing the best of his NFL career. The Cowboys rank fourth in scoring averaging 32.3 points. If the Saints load the box to stop Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott can beat them through the air. Dallas is much more dangerous offensively with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore calling the shots. The Saints are overrated at home where they have failed to cover in their past five games at the Superdome. They also are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall games. Dallas is the superior team right now on both sides of the ball. It shouldn't be too much to ask the Cowboys to beat the Brees-less Saints. | |||||||
09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos -3 | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 18 m | Show | |
At 0-3 the Broncos are in desperation mode. The Jaguars are sure to get the Broncos' top effort. Denver is especially tough at home early in the season when opponents aren't in shape to deal with high altitude. The Broncos are 13-1 during their last 14 September home games. The Broncos' defense is better than it has showed. I'm not buying any Minshew Mania. Gardner Minshew is far more game manager than gunslinger. He needs to heavily lean on Leonard Fournette, who is having a disappointing season so far. Forget, too, about Jacksonville returning to its playoff ways of two seasons ago. The Jaguars are more like last season's 5-11 team. Their offense lacks a downfield attack, Fournette may be in the wrong system and the defense isn't as dominant as last year missing some key players, including linebacker Telvin Smith. It's not a fluke the Jaguars have dropped 12 of their past 15 games while going 4-9-2 ATS during this span. They just aren't very good. | |||||||
09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 47.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
Russell Wilson is a magician and he's having another magical season with the third-highest passer rating and a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wilson squares off against an equal opportunity Cardinals defense that can't stop the run nor the pass. Arizona ranks among the bottom-four in yards allowed and points per game surrendering nearly 30 a game. The Seahawks are down defensively from previous years particularly in the secondary where the Legion of Boom no longer exists. Kyler Murray has transformed Arizona's offense. He's the perfect QB for the Cardinals because of his quickness and nimbleness, which masks his team's offensive line weaknesses. I expect Kliff Kingsbury to begin opening the playbook more for Murray especially being at home. David Johnson is an elite runner due for a bust out performance and Larry Fitzgerald is relevant again thanks to Murray and the Cardinals' much improved offense. | |||||||
09-29-19 | Panthers v. Texans OVER 47 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -109 | 91 h 4 m | Show |
Take away his legs and Cam Newton isn't a very good quarterback. I would agrue Carolina's offense is set up better with Kyle Allen at quarterback. Allen gets the start again this week after lighting up the Cardinals defense for four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 38-20 road win last Sunday. Allen is surrounded by playmakers. Christian McCaffrey is the best all-purpose back in the league. DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel are underrated speed weapons and Greg Olsen still is an effective pass-catching tight end. He had excellent rapport with Allen against the Cardinals catching six passes and scoring two touchdowns. This will be Allen's third NFL start. He led the Panthers to 33 points in his starting debut during Week 17 last season. Houston's pass defense ranks 23rd. The Texans have slow cornerbacks making them vulnerable to Moore and Samuel. The Panthers' defense hasn't improved as some were expecting. Defensive linemen Gerald McCoy looks old and Kawann Short missed last week with a shoulder injury. He's questionable this week. The Texans are averaging 30.1 in their last six regular season games discouting matchups against the Jaguars. Deshaun Watson is an upper level QB and DeAndre Hopkins could be the top wideout in the NFL. Both of these teams rank in the top-10, too, in pace. So this should be a fast tempo game, a strong plus for the Over. | |||||||
09-29-19 | Browns +7.5 v. Ravens | 40-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Yes, the Browns were the most overhyped team entering the season. Now, though, the pendulum has swung too far the other way. The Browns aren't as bad as they've looked. This is a step down for the Browns after they played the Rams last week. Baltimore nipped Cleveland, 26-24, at home last season. The Browns are far more talented this season. It's taken a while, but I see Baker Mayfield and his talented skill position players putting the pieces together in this matchup. The Ravens' defense down is from a year ago and they have multiple injuries in their secondary. Mayfield will be able to spot open receivers. The Ravens are at their worst in the role of home favorite, too, where they are 1-7 ATS the past eight times, including failing to cover the last four times as home chalk. Baltimore is the most run-oriented team in the league. They are not built to cover margins like this especially in a huge division game. | |||||||
09-28-19 | Saskatchewan v. Toronto UNDER 49.5 | 41-16 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 37 m | Show | |
Saskatchewan gives up the second-fewest yards in the CFL. The Roughriders have held five of their last seven opponents to fewer than 20 points. But the Roughriders have been held under 20 points in three of their last five games. Toronto averages just 20 points on the season. The Argos are the worst team in the league. But the Argos have been playing better defense. They held Ottawa to 17 points and Calgary to 23 points during their past two games. Calgary is the third-highest scoring team in the CFL. The Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the two teams, including in Week 2 when the Roughriders won, 32-7, at home. | |||||||
09-28-19 | SMU v. South Florida +8 | 48-21 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
South Florida has improved since switching to redshirt freshman QB Jordan McCloud. But a big reason for this handicap is a go-against SMU off its great win against rival TCU and to fade Sonny Dykes, one of my least favorite coaches. The Mustangs are 2-6 ATS the last eight times facing a below .500 opponent. South Florida was blown out 49-0 by Wisconsin in its opener. That loss doesn't look quite as bad considering the unbeaten Badgers just blew out Michigan. The Bulls then covered a road game at Georgia Tech, losing 14-10, and then buried South Carolina State at home two weeks ago, 55-16. McCloud accounted for five TD's in that victory. The Bulls were idle last week. So the Bulls will be rested and prepared while catching SMU off a big win. South Florida's defense is highly opportunistic tied for first in the country in forcing turnovers and fumbles recoverd. | |||||||
09-28-19 | USC v. Washington -10 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 11 m | Show | |
I don't see USC defeating Utah and Washington in consecutive games. Aside from a strong passing attack, the Trojans aren't as good as Washington in every other area. The gap is especially huge on defense and coaching. Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 the past couple of years and that defense remains eite. The Huskies have a balanced attack. QB Jacob Eason, a transfer from Georgia, is getting better each week in Washington's system. The Trojans are going with third-string Matt Fink at quarterback because of injuries to JT Daniels and Kedon Slovis. This will be his first road start. The Huskies have a strong pass defense along with 10 sacks and four interceptions. | |||||||
09-28-19 | Northwestern +24.5 v. Wisconsin | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 54 m | Show | |
Undefeated Wisconsin has outscored its three opponents, 145-14. The Badgers are off a smashing victory against Michigan last Saturday. All of this contributes to a very inflated line for this matchup. The Wildcats beat the Badgers by 14 points last season. Northwestern has played Wisconsin extremely tough during the last four years, winning twice and losing by 14 and nine points, respectively, in the other two games. Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald is one of the top 'dog coaches in the country. The Wildcats have covered 11 of the past 14 times they were road 'dogs. That strong record would be even more impressive, but the underdog Wildcats suffered a horrendous ATS bad beat in the closing seconds against Stanford in their opener on a safety with 20 seconds left. The Wildcats are 15-2 in their last 17 Big Ten games. One of those losses occurred to Michigan State by 21 points at home last week. That's another contributing factor explaining why this line is overinflated. Northwestern is 9-4 ATS following a defeat. They shouldn't lack motivation after being embarrassed by Michigan State. The Badgers, on the other hand, are fat and happy having steamrolled Michigan. They aren't going to be taking Northwestern as serious as they did the Wolverines. | |||||||
09-28-19 | Central Michigan +17 v. Western Michigan | Top | 15-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
Central Michigan is much improved from last year's 1-11 season under new coach Jim McElwain. This improvement has come during the Chippewas' last two games, a 45-24 home win against Akron and a 17-12 road loss to Miami as a 30 1/2-point road 'dog. The Chippewas won the time of possession battle against the Hurricanes and held them to 1.6 yards rushing and 303 total yards. The Chippewas can control clock, too, versus Western Michigan in this Mid-American Conference rivalry matchup. Central Michigan's has found the right quarterback in David Moore. He's started the past two games and has accounted for 533 passing yards and three touchdowns, two via the air, with one interception. The Chippewas are not the same team that was steamrolled three weeks ago by powerful Wisconsin, 61-0, in Madison. Moore didn't start that game. These two teams are much closer than this spread. Western Michigan was hammered by a Big Ten, too, three weeks ago losing to Michigan State, 51-17. The Broncos lost to Syracuse, 52-33, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs last Saturday. Western Michigan is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games. The Broncos will be without one of their key players, injured cornerback D'Wayne Eskridge. He also is sixth on the team in receiving yards. The Chippewas have covered nine of their last 13 games and have gone 4-1-1 ATS the past six times meeting the Broncos. | |||||||
09-28-19 | Kansas v. TCU -14 | 14-51 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Kansas is going to take TCU's best punch after the Horned Frogs suffered a humbling 41-38 loss to city rival SMU last weekend. TCU was 7 1/2-point favorites in that game. The loss knocked them out of the Top-25. Gary Patterson is a no nonsense coach. He's not going to screw around here. The Horned Frogs are going to pound away at Kansas, which could be missing its leading tackler, linebacker Dru Prox. Patterson will be reminding his squad about last season's game when the Jayhawks upset the Horned Frogs, 27-26, in Kansas. The Jayhawks are improved under new coach Les Miles. They have some good skill position players particularly at running back. But TCU owns the defensive edge and has a strong advantage in the trenches. This probably isn't going to be a pretty win, but in the end I see the Horned Frogs controlling clock and winning by more than two touchdowns. | |||||||
09-27-19 | San Jose State v. Air Force -18 | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -114 | 56 h 2 m | Show |
San Jose State intercepted five passes from pass-crazy Arkansas in stunning the Razorbacks, 31-24, as 20-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. It was the first time the Spartans ever defeated an SEC foe and their first victory against any power conference opponent since 2006. You can count on one hand and be missing a finger to add up the number of times San Jose State has beaten a power conference team this century. Some of the San Jose players and coaches called it the greatest win in San Jose football history. Heady stuff for the Spartans. The school and the players celebrated in grand style with a campus rally on Monday. That's a rarity and a big deal at San Jose State. The Spartans had two wins the previous two years entering this season. Now, though, the Spartans have to travel into high altitude on a short week after returning 1,800 miles back to San Jose from Arkansas. They draw what should be an aroused Air Force team that lost to Boise State last Friday. The Falcons couldn't sustain their road victory against Colorado two weeks ago when they fell to Boise State. Now they are home again. The Spartans aren't coming up with five interceptions again. Air Force may not even throw the ball five times. The Falcons are the nation's fourth-leading rushing team. They are a physical, option-attack team that is well drilled and disciplined. It's a terrible matchup for San Jose coming off its great victory. The Falcons are tough defensively, too. Only 19 teams surrender fewer yards per game than Air Force. | |||||||
09-26-19 | Astros v. Angels +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 140 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton are all out for the season. Scheduled starting pitcher Jaime Barria has a 6.43 ERA and has lost seven straight decisions. So am I in my right mind by backing the Angels here? Yes. I'll take 1 1/2 runs with the Angels based on the situation, who isn't going to start for Houston today and the horrendous September form of slated Astros starter Wade Miley. The Astros just played last night at Seattle and were involved in a near no-hitter by Zack Greinke. That was a highly emotional game. They got into LA very early today. Astros manager AJ Hinch said Jose Altuve and George Springer won't be in the starting lineup. He wants to rest them. Carlos Correa also won't be in the lineup either because of a sore back. Barria has been bad, but Miley has been worse this month with a mind-blowing 22.09 September ERA giving up 18 runs and 23 hits in only 7 1/3 innings! Given these factors, I believe the Angels can hang in. | |||||||
09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 45 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 52 h 11 m | Show |
The Eagles' defensive weaknesses are clear: Vulnerable secondary, just two sacks and down two defensive tackles. Aaron Rodgers should be in line for his biggest game of the season after facing three strong defenses - Bears, Vikings and Broncos. Rodgers hasn't been looking downfield as much as he has in previous seasons. That's partially the design of first-year head coach Matt LaFleur, who is trying to establish more of a run presence. But LaFleur can't be stupid enough not to encourage Rodgers to take advantage of the Eagles' 29th-ranked pass defense that has yielded seven TD passes in three games, including three TD passes and 380 yards to Case Keenum. Green Bay's defense is improved. No doubt there. It's quicker, faster and more athletic. But it's not as good as the early numbers may indicate. The Packers have been fortunate to open against these three QB's - Mitchchell Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. An above average quarterback can show that the Packers' defense is far from elite. The Eagles have that in Carson Wentz, who should get back his top wide receiver, Alshon Jeffery, from injury. The Packers' defense also carries a high fatigue rating even though it's early in the season. That's because Green Bay's defense was on the field for 73 plays against Denver this past Sunday as the Broncos won the time of possession battle, 35:34-24:26. So this being the Thursday game isn't doing the Packers' defense any favors. | |||||||
09-25-19 | Brewers -138 v. Reds | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
No team is hotter than Milwaukee. The Brewers are a major league-best 18-4 this month. They are 16-2 in their last 18 games. The price and pitching matchup is worth it to ride the Brewers again today. Jordan Lyles has been outstanding since coming to the Brewers on July 29. Milwaukee is 9-1 in Lyles' 10 starts. Lyles has a 2.35 ERA with the Brewers and is in excellent form with a 1.80 ERA during his past three starts. The Reds are averaging only 2.3 runs in their last eight games. The Reds are dealing with a virus that has affected several Cincinnati players, including infielder Freddy Galvis. The Brewers are highly motivated and have tremendous momentum. If they win this game, they clinch a wild-card berth. The Reds just want the season to end. They are giving Tyler Mahle an extended look. The results haven't been good. Mahle, who is slated to start here, hasn't won since May. He's 2-11 on the season with a 4.93 ERA. Mahle's ERA in his past three starts is 6.59. | |||||||
09-24-19 | Braves v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 103 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
I can easily envision both teams scoring at least five runs in a pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Danny Duffy. Teheran has allowed eight earned runs in his last two starts - both against the Phillies - giving up five homers during this nine inning span. Teheran also has given up a National League-high 4.31 walks per nine innings. Bad current form and bases on balls can be a deadly combination playing in an AL ballpark where the DH is used. The Royals are swinging hot bats, too, scoring 20 runs during their last two games. Neither pitcher is going to be helped by the weather conditions, which call for 14-to-15 mph wind blowing out to left. That's especially bad for southpaw Duffy. Atlanta ranks seventh in the majors in homers and eighth in runs. They have the fifth highest slugging percentage versus lefties in the National League. The Royals have the sixth-worst bullpen in the majors with a 5.05 ERA. Kansas City has been a solid Over play. The Over has cashed in 17 of the Royals' past 24 games for 71 percent. | |||||||
09-23-19 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +117 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
The Cardinals were in a party mood after clinching their first playoff berth in four years after sweeping the Cubs with a 3-2 road win on Sunday. So the Cardinals might not have their full focus traveling West to take on the host Diamondbacks tonight. The pitching matchup is Adam Wainwright versus lefty Alex Young, who the Cardinals have never faced before. Wainwright is a brilliant 9-3 with a 2.03 ERA when pitching at home. However, his numbers are far worse on the road where he's 4-6 with a 6.03 ERA in 14 away starts. St. Louis is 1-7 the last eight times Wainwright has gone against a winning team on the road. The Cardinals are 21 games above .500 when facing a righthanded starter, but just 16-15 versus southpaw starters. Young is a rookie, but he has been a rock for Arizona holding 12 of his 15 opponents to three earned runs or fewer. He has a 2.30 ERA in his past six starts. | |||||||
09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers OVER 47.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 16 m | Show | |
Expect a bounce back performance from Philip Rivers returning to LA after a tough game last week at Detroit. Austin Ekeler has proven he is more than capable of replacing Melvin Gordon even being a better pass-catcher out of the backfield. Deshaun Watson is due for a better game, too. The Texans are facing an easier defense than the Jaguars. Watson has all of his main receiving targets healthy. Both teams are vulnerable in the secondary. The Chargers are missing their starting safeties. They draw Watson after facing Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew during their first two games. That's a monster step up. | |||||||
09-22-19 | Saints +5.5 v. Seahawks | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 133 h 13 m | Show | |
The Saints are getting a generous amont of points against a mediocre Seahawks squad because Drew Brees is out. Teddy Bridgewater, though, is one of the better backups in the league. Bridgewater gives the Saints a running dimension from the quarterback spot they lacked from Brees. He has excellent weapons with Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas being among the best at their respective positions. Offensive mastermind Seay Payton can also coach Bridgewater up with a full week to prepare. The Seahawks were outgained by nearly 200 yards at home by the winless Bengals in Week 1, lucky to escape with a victory. Seattle then caught a break this past Sunday against the Steelers when Ben Roethilsberger couldn't go in the second due to an elbow injury. Seattle's home field isn't as dominant as before and the Legion of Boom is no more. Instead the Seahawks have an inexperienced and vulnerable secondary. | |||||||
09-22-19 | Steelers +8 v. 49ers | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 133 h 12 m | Show | |
The Steelers are in must-win mode win at 0-2. The 49ers are in a letdown spot returning home after opening 2-0 with a pair of road victories. Those wins came against the Buccaneers and Bengals, though. Now the 49ers face their toughest opponent. The line is inflated because Ben Roethlisberger is out. He's replaced by Mason Rudolph. The Steelers have had bad backup quarterbacks before. Rudolph is a step above their previous second-string QB's. He was a star at Oklahoma State and looked good during preseason. The Steelers still have a good defense, an elite offensive line and solid weapons for Rudolph to succeed. San Francisco is much improved. But the 49ers still are not better than the Steelers even with the change from Roethlisberger to Rudolph. Their offense is a work-in-progress and they just lost offensive left tackle Joe Staley, who suffered a broken leng. The 49ers have holes on defense especially in the secondary. The Steelrs upgraded their secondary and showed to their fans they haven't given up on the season by trading a first-round pick for versatile defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick. | |||||||
09-22-19 | Nationals v. Marlins +195 | 3-5 | Win | 195 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
The Marlins are such big underdogs in this spot largely due to reputation and the Nationals pushing for a playoff spot. But there are a lot of circumstances here that point to an outstanding value play backing the home underdog. Washington has won the first two games of this series. This is the Nationals' final regular season road game. They return home to host the Phillies on Monday, closing out the season with eight home games. So the Nationals might not have their full concentration while also taking the Marlins too lightly in this Sunday get away day spot. The Nationals are pitching their No. 5 rotation guy, Austin Voth. He has a 3.77 ERA on the road this season. Washington is 1-5 in Voth's last six starts. Pablo Lopez starts for Miami. He's been a much better pitcher at home where his ERA is 3.22. Lopez also has a 2.76 ERA in day games. He's coming off a Monday performance where he held the Diamondbacks to three runs on five hits in six innings. The Marlins do not have a good bullpen. However, the Nationals have the highest bullpen ERA in the majors at 5.79. | |||||||
09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -7.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 130 h 54 m | Show |
Jon Gruden doesn't fool me. The Raiders are bad on both sides of the ball. Just like last season. They lack skill position talent and their defense is bottom tier. The Raiders don't travel well either losing 15 of their last 17 road/neutral sites matchups going 3-13-1 ATS in those games. The Vikings have one of the best home fields in football covering 70 percent of their last 54 home games. Note this is an early start time, too. Bad news for the West Coast Raiders. Dalvin Cook is a premier running back. If the Raiders load the box to stop him they become vulnerable to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. The Vikings are hungry for a win after losing to the Packers last week. | |||||||
09-22-19 | Ravens +7.5 v. Chiefs | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 130 h 52 m | Show | |
The Ravens lost 27-24 in overtime to the Chiefs in Kansas City last season. That is their only loss during their past nine regular season games. The Ravens are itching for revenge and are better than they were last December when they met the Chiefs. The main reason for this is the emergence of Lamar Jackson as a legitimate dual threat quarterback. He has thrown the same number of touchdown passes as Patrick Mahomes this season. Jackson has upgraded weapons supporting hin and a better group of running backs. Baltimore also has the superior defense. The Chiefs are dealing with two key offensive injuries - wide receiver Tyreek Hill and left tackle Eric Fisher. | |||||||
09-21-19 | Georgia State v. Texas State OVER 63.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 70 h 13 m | Show | |
Georgia State gives up 43 points a game, ranking 127th in scoring defense. The Panthers are off a 57-10 loss to Western Michigan where they yielded 694 yards. The Panthers, though, have a decent offense that is balanced. They average 32 points a game. QB Dan Ellington has an 8-to-1 TD-to-Interception ratio and is the Panthers' No. 2 rusher. Texas State is horrible defensively, too. The Bobcats just gave up 47 points and 639 yards to SMU. This is the spot where the Bobcats' offense really could show something under coach Jake Spavital, who has a reputation as a quarterback guru. The Bobcats rank 37th passing and Georgia State is a team they can run on. The Over has cashed in four of the last five meetings between the two teams. | |||||||
09-21-19 | New Mexico State v. New Mexico UNDER 71 | 52-55 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 47 m | Show | |
New Mexico State can't hold up its end with a total this large. The Aggies have scored a combined 27 points in three games going against Washington State, Alabama and San Diego State. Yes, New Mexico is a drop-off, but this also is a rivalry game. The Aggies averaged just 371 yards and 25 points last season. So far this seaso they are averaging 302.7 yards and nine points a game. New Mexico State QB Josh Adkins is heavily turnover-prone. The Aggies will try to establish a ground attack for the first time. They should stick with it for a while because they are stepping down in class. New Mexico's offense has been down since the second half of last season. During their past eight games versus FBS opponents, the Lobos have failed to break 24 points in any game. They are averaging 15.2 points in these games. Their head coach, Bob Davie, is out another week recuperating from a health issue. None of the previous four matchups between these two teams during the last four years reached a combined 70 points. This one shouldn't either. | |||||||
09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 52 h 6 m | Show | |
Washington has had the best defense in the Pac-12 for the past four years and this year's defense is right up there, too. The Huskies have a powerful offensive line, a balanced attack and Georgia transfer QB Jacob Eason has taken command of Chris Peterson's Washington offense. He looked good in the Huskies' 52-20 home win against Hawaii last week. The Huskies are similar to Utah and the Utes hammered BYU, 30-12, at BYU. The Cougars rebounded from that defeat by coming up with upset victories at Tennessee and home against USC. Both of those games went overtime. BYU was outgained in each of those games, but won the turnover battle. Washington knows how to take care of the ball. Washington rolled over BYU, 35-7, last season. | |||||||
09-21-19 | Louisville v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 47 h 50 m | Show |
With just a one-point overtime victory against Louisiana Monroe, Florida State is desperate for a victory. The Seminoles are 1-2, but could be 3-0 having blown fourth-quarter leads against Virginia and Boise State. Florida State has the athletes and talent especially on offense. James Blackman has come through at quarterback and Cam Akers is one of the best running backs in the country. Scott Satterfield is doing a good job in his first season at Louisville. But he has a major rebuild job to do. The Cardinals are coming off easy wins against two overmatched opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky. This is a step-up game for the Cardinals and it's also an off-surface for them. While I think the Cardinals are improved and on the right track under Satterfield, I don't see them staying within a touchdown of highly motivated Florida State. | |||||||
09-21-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 12 | 9-8 | Win | 102 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
The wind is blowing out to left field like crazy at Wrigley Field in the 16-18 mph range. The oddsmaker can't set a total high enough when that happens. This is especially bad for Cubs lefty starter Jose Quintana, who has an 11.32 ERA in his last three starts. Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson doesn't miss many bats so the weather conditions are not ripe for him either. | |||||||
09-21-19 | Michigan +3.5 v. Wisconsin | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 44 m | Show | |
Michigan has been pointing to this matchup since before the season. The Wolverines haven't looked sharp in beating Middle Tennessee and Army. They also purposely haven't shown too much. The Badgers have outscored their two opponents, 110-0. Those two foes, though, were Central Michigan and South Florida. Wisconsin still doesn't have a good quarterback. If this game would have been the season opener for both teams Michigan would have been favored. Playing option-oriented Army is a good thing for Michigan in its preparation against the ground-and-pound Badgers. Look for the Wolverines to load the box daring Wisconsin QB Jack Coan to beat them, which he can't. Wisconsin faced two weak defenses. The Badgers are not properly battle-tested for Michigan's elite athleticism and size. Note, too, the Badgers are 1-8 ATS following a victory. | |||||||
09-20-19 | Utah -3.5 v. USC | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -103 | 75 h 31 m | Show |
If USC's Clay Helton isn't the worst head football coach in a major conference than he's certainly in the discussion for that dubious distinction. The Trojans are 7-19-1 ATS (27 percent) in their last 27 games. Utah defeated USC, 41-28, last year with the score not fully indicative of how much the Utes dominated. Utah built a 34-14 lead, had 17 more first downs and nearly 350 more yards than USC. The Utes have the two best skill position players on the field in QB Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, one of the best running backs in the nation. The Trojans are starting freshman Kedon Slovis at quarterback due to injuries and transfers. Slovis had a passer rating of just 54 and was picked off three times in a road overtime loss to BYU this past Saturday. Utah met BYU in its opener and won, 30-12, on the road. The unbeaten Utes have covered 12 of their last 17 road matchups. | |||||||
09-20-19 | Calgary v. Toronto UNDER 53.5 | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 78 h 29 m | Show | |
The Stampeders defeated Toronto, 26-16, when the teams met earlier this year. That was the fourth time in the last five meetings between the two teams that the Under has won. I'm going to ride that trend in the rematch. Calgary is averaging 25.6 points in its last three games. The Argos have scored 26 points or fewer in eight of their 11 games this season. The Stampeders have held seven of their last nine opponents to 26 points or fewer. The Under has cashed in six of Calgary's past eight road games. | |||||||
09-20-19 | Calgary v. Toronto +6.5 | 23-16 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 33 m | Show | |
Calgary is in a very dangerous situation here. The Stampeders just nipped East Division leader Hamilton, 19-18, at home last Saturday after trailing by 11 points at halftime. They are on the road in a revenge spot against Montreal next week. So it could become very easy for Calgary to overlook and come out flat against the 2-9 Argonauts. The Stampeders are on short rest, while Toronto was idle last week. The Argonauts entered their bye bolstered by a smashing 46-17 road win against Ottawa. Toronto is 2-0-1 ATS in its last three games. The Stampeders have injuries and a poor recent track history in this type of role. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times laying points and 1-5 ATS the last six times they've met sub .500 opponents. | |||||||
09-19-19 | Houston +5.5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
I'm not buying into any Tulane hype, or that the Green Wave should be a favorite against Houston. The Cougars have one of the top dual threat QB's in the nation in D'Eriq King, who accounted for 50 touchdowns last season and is getting more comfortable operating Dana Holgorsen's offense. Tulane's Justin McMillan is better than some past Tulane QB's and he has a deep group of running backs and wide receivers. But King has plenty of help, too, especially with the return of running back Patrick Carr. Tulane just played Missouri State this past Saturday. That was a cupcake opponent. Houston's statistics are skewed, especially defensively, by having already played high-powered fourth-ranked Oklahoma and 19th-ranked Washington State. So this is a drop in class for the Cougars, who covered against both of those Top-25 opponents. The Cougars rolled past Tulane, 48-17, at home last season. The Cougars were favored by seven in that game. During the previous four seasons from 2014-2017, the Cougars were favored by eight, 27, 21 and 17 points against Tulane. Houston has covered in six of its last seven trips to Tulane. Now the Green Wave not only is expected to beat the Cougars but cover a mid-size margin doing it. I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid. | |||||||
09-19-19 | Padres v. Brewers OVER 8 | 1-5 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
Hard to believe, but there have been just 13 combined runs scored during the first three games of this series. Not surprising, all three games have gone Under. I see a turnaround coming in the finale of this series. The Padres are a strong offensive club on the road away from Petco Park. The Brewers rank eighth in the majors in homers. The Over is 13-4-1 (76 percent) the past 18 times the Brewers have played Game 4 of a series. The pitching matchup is lefty Joey Lucchesi versus Jordan Lyles. Lucchesi is coming off his worst outing giving up a career-high eight runs on nine hits - six of which went for extra bases - in just 3 2/3 innings in a 10-8 road loss to the Rockies this past Friday. That was at Coors Field. Miller Park, the site of this matchup, is another hitter-friendly park. The Brewers can expect to start righthanded hitters Keston Hiura, Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain against a southpaw starter. Braun and Cain didn't start Wednesday's game because San Diego threw righthander Dinelson Lamet. Lyles pitched for San Diego last year. So the Padres know him. Lyles has a 5.02 ERA in 13 career appearances against San Diego, including nine starts. The Padres have a .434 slugging percentage on the road compared to .398 at home. They also are batting .249 away compared to .232 at Petco Park. | |||||||
09-18-19 | Mariners v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
Mariners at Pirates Over 9 1/2 The Pirates are giving up an obscene 13.2 runs per game during their last four games. They have another bad starter going today with Dario Agrazal and their best relief pitcher, Felipe Vazquez, is in jail rather than in the bullpen after being arrested on Tuesday. The Mariners have scored at least five runs in five of their past six games. Agrazal holds a 7.08 ERA during his last eight starts. Safe to say the Mariners should produce their share of runs. But what about the shell-shocked Pirates? They aren't likely to have their two best offensive players with Josh Bell and Starling Marte both injured. It shouldn't matter because the Pirates are facing rookie Justin Dunn followed by journeyman Tommy Milone. Dunn looked completely overmatched in his big league debut this past Thursday giving up two runs while walking five in just two-thirds of an inning against the Reds. Dunn threw 37 pitches of which 23 of his throws were called balls. He clearly doesn't appear ready for the major leagues. Dunn isn't expected to go more than three innings before Milone comes on the scene followed by other relievers. Milone has a 4.93 ERA. | |||||||
09-17-19 | Mariners +123 v. Pirates | Top | 6-0 | Win | 123 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
Mitch Keller is the Pirates' top pitching prospect. He has yet to show it, though. Pressed into service due to the Pirates' multiple pitching injuries, Keller is struggling to solve big league hitters with an 8.29 ERA and 1.87 WHIP. He has a 10.97 ERA in his past three outings. Keller has given up at least one homer in four of his last five starts. The Mariners rank ninth in homers and expect to activate power-hitting outfielder Domingo Santana from the injured list in time for this game. Santana is second on the Mariners in RBI's. I'm not buying Keller as a favorite in this matchup of two bad teams. The Mariners are throwing their No. 1 pitcher, lefty Marco Gonzalez. If you discount his recent starts against the powerful Astros, Gonzaez has surrendered three or fewer runs in seven of his last eight starts. He was solid in his past start, a 5-3 home victory against the Reds this past Wednesday. Gonzalez held Cincinnati to two runs on five hits in seven innings. Pittsburgh is 14-25 versus lefty starters this season. Seattle is 4-2 in its last six games. The Pirates are home for the first time in nine days. They just were swept three games by the Cubs getting outscored by 32 runs in that series. Pittsburgh has dropped 19 of its last 27 home games. | |||||||
09-16-19 | Browns -140 v. Jets | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 129 h 1 m | Show |
I played this game early in the week before Sam Darnold was ruled out so was able to take a great money line price. I still like the Browns at the changed number, but not enough to recommend a max wager. The Browns are far from a complete team. But they have less warts than the Jets and should enter this nationally televised matchup humble, motivated and ready to prove the preseason hype about them is justified after they were embarrassed by the Titans at home this past Sunday. Baker Mayfield gives the Browns a monster talent edge at QB. The Jets defense fell apart against the Bills after losing linebacker C.J. Mosley. The Browns' offense is far superior to Buffalo's. Mosley, the Jets' defensive leader, and defensive lineman Quinnen Williams are both out. The Jets already are down injured linebacker Avery Williamson. Those are three significant defensive injuries for the Jets. Both team's have protection problems. But the Jets also have a weak secondary and lack a pass rush. Cleveland's Myles Garrett is one of the pass rushers in the NFL. He is my choice to lead the NFL in sacks this season. | |||||||
09-15-19 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 45 m | Show |
Credit to the Raiders for beating Denver in Week 1. Jon Gruden had a good game plan and his defense played hard. But now the Raiders go from Joe Flacco, who I rank with Eli Manning as the worst starting QB in the NFL, to the best, Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders defense is porous and they are now without injured safety Johnathan Abram. The Chiefs should have no problem moving the ball up and down on the Raiders. They don't need Tyreek Hill against such a weak caliber defense. Kansas City averaged 37.5 points against the Raider last season with Mahomes throwing for six touchdowns and averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. Oakland isn't going to be able to keep up with Kansas City. Derek Carr is just a glorified dink-and-dunker. I'm not impressed with his skill position weapons either with Antonio Brown having left. Carr has been picked off nine times in his career by the Chiefs. The Raiders are missing their starting guards. They are one of the few teams that could make the Chiefs defense look good. | |||||||
09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 25 m | Show |
I want the Steelers at home going for me in this spot. Pittsburgh laid an egg at New England on national television this past Sunday night. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong history of playing much better at home. The Steelers' offensive line is elite. James Connor and JuJu Smith-Schuster are more than adequate replacements from the departed Le'Veon Bell and prima donna Antonio Brown. Seattle is down this season. The Seahawks were life and death to beat a bad Bengals team at home opening week. Seattle is 3-6 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season during the past four plus years. The Seahawks are down because they no longer have their fabled Legion of Boom secondary. All of those guys are gone. Their best defensive lineman, Jarran Reed, is suspended. Seattle is a ground-and-pound team. That style isn't going to work on the road against the Steelers, who won't lack motivation after last Sunday's humiliation to the Patriots. Pittsburgh ranked sixth in run defense and were tied for first in sacks last season. Russell Wilson lost his top wide receiver with Doug Baldwin retiring. | |||||||
09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 49 | 43-0 | Win | 100 | 44 h 29 m | Show | |
New England has its best defense in years. The Dolphins have the lowest paid and probably worst offensive line in the league. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a better backup than starting QB and Miami is below average at running back and at the receiver spots. So the Dolphins don't figure to put up many points. The Patriots aren't going to show much. There's no need for them to tip their hand against such a weak foe. The Patriots have been double-digit road favorites six times since 2015. The Under has won each team. The weather is going to be brutally hot with temperatures reaching the low 100's and high humidity. This is a game the Patriots should be satisfied to sit on a lead and get their reserves in early so as not to risk an injury to a frontline player especially since they already are missing two offensive line starters. | |||||||
09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins +19.5 | 43-0 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 26 m | Show | |
I understand the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL. But this number is an overreaction to what happened in Week 1 when the Dolphins were blown out by the Ravens and the Patriots crushed the Steelers in the Sunday Night nationally televised game. The early number on this game, according to the oddsmakers at the Westgate, was Patriots minus 11. Until that battering by the Ravens, the Dolphins had not lost a September home game since 2015. This is the weakest Miami team in a long time, but motivation, home field and New England offensive line injuries and state of mind counter the Patriots' huge talent and coaching edge. The Patriots have had trouble at this venue losing five of the past six times they have played at Miami. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS the past seven times hosting New England. The Patriots are without two of their best offensive linemen with center David Andrews and right tackle Marcus Cannon out. The Patriots aren't going to put Tom Brady at risk with some wide open attack when they don't need to do that to win this game. There also is no reason for the Patriots to show anything in this game. A simple, vanilla game plan featuring lots of running is what the Patriots are likely to do. The heat is going to be brutal with temperatures reaching triple digits and high humidity. Bill Belichick isn't likely to run up a score against the Dolphins, who are coached by Brian Flores. Flores was a defensive assistant to Belichick before taking the Dolphins job. The Dolphins will be taking this matchup far more serious than the Patriots because of Flores' former close association with the Patriots and also to get some redemption from last week's horror show. This is going to be Miami's Super Bowl. | |||||||
09-15-19 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Texans | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 40 h 25 m | Show | |
This is more than just a division game, but a real rivalry. It remains to be seen just how much of a dropoff there is between Nick Foles and rookie Gardner Minshew. Foles has mostly been a backup in his career, although a top-notch one. Minshew demonstrated tremendous poise in replacing Foles against the Chiefs last Sunday completing 22 of 25 passes for 275 with two touchdowns and one interception. The Jaguars are run-oriented. Leonard Fournette is their featured player not the quarterback. Minshew has underrated wide receivers. He just has to manage this game, though, for the Jaguars to hang in. The Jaguars have an upper level defense. They were sixth in defensive efficiency last season. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is one of the few who can hang against DeAndre Hopkins. The Texans are playing on a short week after an exhausting road game against the Saints this past Monday night. The Texans have not shored up their porous pass protection particularly at right tackle. Deshaun Watson was sacked six times by New Orleans and endured 11 hits. The Jaguars have held Watson to two touchdown passes in three games and just 5.8 yards per pass attempt. The Jaguars also have recorded 21 sacks in their last four games against the Texans. | |||||||
09-14-19 | Texas State v. SMU OVER 58 | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 120 h 57 m | Show | |
Sonny Dykes is one of my least favorite college coaches. But you know with Dykes you're going to get a lot of passing, fast pace and not much defense even if some talent is there. SMU is averaging 43 points, while surrendering 28.5 points. Mustangs QB Shane Buechele is doing a good job operating Dykes' up-tempo attack and has two excellent receivers in James Proche and Reggie Roberson Jr. The gem about going above this total, though, is Texas State being well below the radar as far as having a good offense. The Bobcats have managed just 21 points in two games taking on Texas A&M on the road and Wyoming. They were the lowest-scoring team in the Sun Belt Conference last year. However, the Bobcats have brought in a pair of excellent offensive minds this season - head coach Jake Spavital and offensive coordinator Bob Stitt. They like an up-tempo style, too. The Bobcats had 444 yards against Wyoming, but were hurt by three turnovers. QB Gresch Jensen threw 54 passes against the Cowboys picking up nearly 400 yards through the air. | |||||||
09-14-19 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan UNDER 51 | 25-27 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 41 m | Show | |
These same two teams met on Aug. 9 in Montreal. Saskatchewan won, 17-10. There were just 372 combined yards of offense in that game. It marked the sixth time during the past seven meetings in this series that the Under won. I see another low-scoring matchup here. The improved Alouettes have held five of their last seven foes to 22 points or fewer. The Under has cashed in 11 of Montreal's last 16 away games. The Roughriders have yielded fewer than 20 points per game during five of their last six games. If you discount a 40-point performance against Ottawa, the Roughriders are averaging only 17.5 points in their last four games. | |||||||
09-14-19 | Montreal +7.5 v. Saskatchewan | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 104 h 40 m | Show | |
Montreal has been a nice surprise this season. The Alouettes are back on track winning their past three games. They have been receiving excellent skill position play from QB Vernon Adams Jr., who is 6-2 as a starter this season. William Stanback and Jeremiah Johnson have become one of the better running back tandems in the CFL. The Alouettes have proven to be road warriors covering 10 of their last 13 away contests. Saskatchewan has failed to cover during its past five September games. | |||||||
09-14-19 | Southern Miss v. Troy OVER 49 | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show | |
Troy has a strong offense. Southern Mississippi's defense is down from a year ago. The Golden Eagles are more experienced offensively this season and QB Jack Abrahma is a high percentage quarterback. The Over has cashed in seven of Troy's last nine games. The Over also has won at a 70 percent rate during the Trojans' last 57 nonconference games. | |||||||
09-14-19 | Hamilton +7 v. Calgary | 18-19 | Win | 100 | 37 h 29 m | Show | |
Hamilton is 9-2, but not getting enough respect here especially considering the spot. The Tiger-Cats are coming off a bye while drawing Calgary off consecutive victories against arch rival Edmonton. The Stampeders have covered only once in six games when favored this season. The teams met in Week 5 and the Tiger-Cats won, 30-23, at home. Hamilton QB Dane Evans is coming off his finest game. The Tiger-Cats are 4-1 since Evans replaced injured Jeremiah Masoli. The Tiger-Cats haven't lost by more than seven points all year. Hamilton has held their last three opponents to an average of 14.6 points a game. | |||||||
09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple +7.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
Maryland is being overrated in this spot following blowout victories against Howard, an FCS bottom feeder, and Syracuse. Both of those easy wins came at home. The Terrapins now hit the road to play a very physical, rested and well-coached opponent. The Owls had a bye last week giving them two weeks to prepare for this nonconference matchup. Temple is averaging just a shade below nine wins per year during the past four seasons. Temple's offense looked good in its opener, a 56-12 romp over Bucknell at home. The Owls may have the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference. The Owls are strong at linebacker, too. They have their top seven tacklers from last season all back. The Owls have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've been home 'dogs winning six of those games outright. A similar situational spot happened last year when the teams met in Week 3. Maryland played Temple that week sporting a 2-0 mark, with one of those victories being an impressive upset win against Texas. The game was at Maryland. Temple won, 35-14. The Owls outgained the Terps by 234 yards. | |||||||
09-14-19 | Miami-OH v. Cincinnati UNDER 49.5 | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
Pit a rivalry matchup of two running teams who each play at a slow pace and the result should be Under the total. That's what we have in a matchup of Miami of Ohio versus Cincinnati. Both teams run the ball more than 60 percent of the time. The RedHawks have a struggling offense that has injuries and a true freshman as their starting quarterback. They rank 117th in yards. Cincinnati plays at a slower tempo than even Miami of Ohio. The Bearcats are very strong defensively and stepping completely down in class having just met Ohio State. There should be extra intensity for this nonconference matchup. The two teams face each other every year for the Victory Bell. The schools only are about 45 miles apart in southwest Ohio. The average combined total during the past three matchups is 35.3 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings. | |||||||
09-13-19 | White Sox v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
If I had to pick the worst starting pitcher during the second half of the season the name Dylan Covey would emerge. Covery is 0-4 with a 14.26 ERA in eight second-half appearances. Covey hasn't been very good all season. He's 1-7 with an 8.14 ERA. I'm surprised Covey is getting another start having those dreadful numbers. But as long as he's going back to the mound, I'll find a way to fade him and that's by going above this total. I can't trust Seattle starter, southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, at this big of a lay price. So going above the total is the safest way. It's easy to envision these teams combining to reach double-digit runs. The White Sox are averaging 5.6 runs in their last nine games. The Over is 11-3-2 during their last 16 away games. Kikuchi has a 5.24 ERA on the year. The White Sox have the third-highest batting average in the American League against lefties. The Over is 19-8-1 in Kikuchi's last 28 starts. | |||||||
09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest OVER 64 | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -120 | 96 h 47 m | Show |
North Carolina has yet to break the 28-point barrier in two games this season. The Tar Heels, though, have faced a pair of tough defenses in South Carolina and Miami. Wake Forest has struggled the past two years on defense. The Demon Deacons finished 116th in total defense last season. I'm not impressed with their defense this season either. So this is a big drop in class for North Carolina, which has gotten good play from QB Sam Howell and RB Javonte Williams. The Over has cashed in North Carolina's last five road games. Wake Forest is averaging nearly 40 points a game having met Utah State and Rice. Jamie Newman has come through at QB for the Demon Deacons completing 74.3 percent of his throws with a 6-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson likes to push pace and that's what his team is doing. | |||||||
09-12-19 | Braves -125 v. Phillies | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
If it weren't for Washington's Dave Martinez, I would select Philadephia's Gabe Kapler as the worst manager in the National League if not all of baseball. The Phillies haven't made the playoffs since 2011. Kabler hasn't changed that in the two years he has been manager despite management getting him a lot of talent. Kapler's bizarre in-game decisions, poor bullpen management and lack of communication have hindered the Phillies. So if I can find a reason to fade the Phillies, I usually will. In this matchup there are several major factors working against Philadelphia, beginning with the starting pitching matchup of Julio Teheran versus lefty Drew Smyly. Teheran is very reliable. The Braves are 16-7 in his last 23 starts. During these past 23 starts, Teheran has a 2.67 ERA. He's allowed only three runs during his past four starts spanning 25 innings. Opposing batters are hitting just .167 against him during this time frame. It took a while, but the Braves' high quality relievers they picked up at the trade deadline have settled down and are pitching well. Atlanta is one of the hottest teams in the majors having won 19 of its last 23 games. The Braves have won 67 percent of their games, too, when drawing a lefty starter this season going 22-11. Smyly was terrible with Texas this year going 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA and 1.91 WHIP. He pitched better initially since coming to the Phillies on July 21. But aside from his last start against the Mets this past Saturday, Smyly has reverted back to his terrible American League form giving up 21 earned runs in his previous six games. Smyly failed to go six innings in any of those six outings before his last start. The chance to back the hot Braves with the stronger pitcher at a reasonable price has me taking Atlanta. | |||||||
09-11-19 | Braves -124 v. Phillies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
There is a class and pitching difference here that makes this a worthy investment to back the Braves. Dallas Keuchel is a "B" level pitcher, who has been throwing like his past Cy Young days. The lefty is 4-0 with a 0.87 ERA during his last five starts spanning 31 innings. The Phillies are 16-22 against lefty starters and going with Zach Eflin, who is a bottom of the rotation type starter at best. Eflin has really struggled against Atlanta this year surrendering 12 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. Philadelphia can't beat a good team when Elfin starts. The Phillies are 2-12 the past 14 times Elfin has faced an above .500 opponent. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in baseball winning 18 of its last 22 games and seven of its past nine. | |||||||
09-10-19 | Nationals v. Twins UNDER 10.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The Twins lead the majors in runs and homers. Yet they have gone Under in their last seven games. Surprised? Don't be. The Twins have a long injury list that is hurting their offense right now. Minnesota has been minus Nelson Cruz, Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Marwin Gonzalez and Max Kepler departed the Twins' last game two days ago with an upper chest injury. The result is Minnesota is averaging 2.6 runs during its past five games. The Nationals were swinging very hot bats until the past eight days. If you discount a nine-run game against the Braves in their previous game, the Nationals are averaging 3.2 runs in their last four games. There is a strong Under trend when Washington plays American League teams. The Under has cashed in 71 percent of the Nationals' last 45 Interleague games. The pitching matchup is Anibal Sanchez versus Jose Berrios. Sanchez didn't pitch well in his last outing. Prior to that, however, Sanchez had a 3.16 ERA in his previous 17 starts. He has a respectable 3.44 ERA on the road this season. Sanchez is a heady veteran who knows how to pitch and knows something about the Twins having pitching briefly for them during spring training last year. Berrios is an All-Star. He's given up three or fewer earned runs in 15 of his last 18 starts. The Nationals have never faced him. | |||||||
09-09-19 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 12 m | Show |
Von Miller and Bradley Chubb may be the best pass rushing tandem in the NFL. They are in line for big games against a depleted Raiders offensive line that won't have their starting guards and likely going with untested Kolton Miller at left tackle. It's hard to imagine the Raiders getting a ground attack going against Denver minus guards Richie Incognito, who is suspended, and Gabe Jackson, out with a knee injury. I'm not high on Raiders rookie running back, Josh Jacobs. Vic Fangio is an upper level defensive coach and he's had plenty of time to game plan. The Raiders have a bottom-five defense. Indications are that the Broncos' two best playmakers, running back Philip Lindsay and Emmanuel Sanders, are back to health. That's all Joe Flacco needs to game manage a victory here for Denver. | |||||||
09-09-19 | Cubs v. Padres +130 | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
The Cubs and their starting pitcher, Kyle Hendricks, play much worse on the road. Chicago is 13 games below .500 away from Wrigly Field. Hendricks has a 1.77 ERA and 0.77 WHIP at home, but is 4-7 on the road with a 5.20 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The Cubs have lost six of the Hendrick's last eight away starts. San Diego starter Cal Quantrill isn't in good form. However, he shut out the Cubs on two hits in 5 2/3 innings when he last faced them on July 21. Quantrill struck out six and did not walk a batter. Hendricks started that game for the Cubs. San Diego won, 5-1. The Cubs could be down four key players. Star shortstop Javier Baez and closer Craig Kimbrel are both out. Infielder Addison Russell isn't likely to play either after getting hit in the head with a pitch yesterday. Kris Bryant missed Sunday's game with a sore knee. So he's questionable. | |||||||
09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 51 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 125 h 44 m | Show |
It's easy to think offense with these two teams. But doing that can get you in trouble with this matchup. The Patriots have their deepest defense since the early Bill Belichick days. They are especially strong at linebacker and cornerback. The Steelers' firepower isn't quite as potent without Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a worthy No. 1 wideout. The problem for the Steelers is Donte Montcrief is a weak No. 2 wide receiver and James Washington is unproven. Rookie linebacker Devin Bush should have a huge impact on Pittsburgh's defense. The Patriots have become more run-oriented. They are down at tight end with Rob Gronkowski retired and Benjamin Watson suspended. Losing center David Andrews for the season was a tough blow, too, for New England. The two teams met in Week 15 last season at Pittsburgh and the Steelers won, 17-10. | |||||||
09-08-19 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 46 | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -109 | 533 h 14 m | Show |
I see this as the high point of this over/under number with the total only dropping before kickoff. So I am recommending locking into this number now. Neither team is explosive. The Giants have a dink-and-dunk passing attack that wasn't very good even when they had Odell Beckham Jr. Eli Manning's numbers are far worse when Beckham hasn't been in the lineup. New York is down suspended Golden Tate and may not have Sterling Shephard, who has a thumb injury. Those are the Giants' two best wide receivers. Dallas has a very strong defense that is well-coached. The strength of the Cowboys' defense are their mobile linebackers. They can prevent Saquan Barkley from breaking big plays. The Cowboys are ground-oriented. Dak Prescott is more game-manager than gunslinger. The Cowboys aren't going to take wild chances in a game they should have no problem winning if they stick to their grind-out style. Ezekiel Elliott probably is 50-50 to end his holdout by game time. Obviously it's a huge plus for the Under if the rushing champion sits out. If you discount last season's meaningless Week 17 matchup, the average combined total during the past five Giants-Cowboys games is 30.2 points. | |||||||
09-08-19 | Lions -140 v. Cardinals | 27-27 | Push | 0 | 119 h 31 m | Show | |
Arizona can't be worse than what it was last season. The Cardinals' offense certainly should be more deadly with Kliff Kingsburgy and Kyler Murray operating things. However, the Lions are a level higher than the Cardinals right now. Detroit has the running back, Kerryon Johnson, to exploit the Cardinals' weak run defense and the veteran quarterback, Matthew Stafford, to take advantage of the Cardinals minus their top two cornerbacks, suspended Patrick Peterson and injured Robert Alfrod. Stafford has reliable wide receiving weapons with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola along with No. 1 draft pick tight end T.J. Hockenson. Detroit also has an edge in place-kickers. The Lions upgraded their defensive line. It's too much to expect Murray not to make mistakes and go turnover-free. The Lions played the Cardinals on the road in last year's season-opener and won, 17-3. It was the sixth time in the last eight years the Lions have won their Week 1 game. | |||||||
09-08-19 | Colts +7 v. Chargers | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 118 h 21 m | Show | |
This game has moved up to a touchdown now that Andrew Luck isn't going to play. The Colts, though, are solid everywhere. They are still a very respectable football team and offensive guru Frank Reich can coach up Jacoby Brissett, who brings a mobility to the QB position that Luck didn't have. The Colts have shown unity since Luck announced his retirement. They will be playing with a chip on their shoulders ready to prove to the world they are more than just Andrew Luck. The Chargers are missing key players, too, with safety Derwin James and offensive left tackle Russell Okung both injured and out. LA isn't likely to have its top running back, Melvin Gordon, either as he remains a holdout. The Chargers have lost each of their past three season-openers. They were 2-5 ATS in their home games last season covering only against the Raiders and Cardinals. | |||||||
09-08-19 | Blue Jays +185 v. Rays | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
There is too much value to pass up on this game. Toronto starter Jacob Waguespack has had some good moments. Just three starts ago he held the powerful Dodgers to no runs in seven innings allowing just one hit and one walk with five strikeouts. He has a respectable 3.97 ERA. Tyler Glasnow will be making his first appearance for the Rays since May 10. He's been out this long due to a strained forearm. Glasnow has a very high ceiling, but he figures to be rusty and only pitch around two innings turning this into a bullpen game for the Rays. That puts a lot of randomness into the equation and makes the Blue Jays an enticing underdog at this huge plus price. | |||||||
09-08-19 | Diamondbacks v. Reds -124 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Arizona is playing well, but the Diamondbacks are overachievers. They are not some powerhouse and they are at a pitching disadvantage here. Diamondbacks starter Mike Leake is 0-5 with a 4.75 ERA in eight starts against his former team the Reds. The best thing you can say about Leake is that he is an innings-eater. I prefer Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani, who pitches better at home and has a 2.16 ERA during his past four starts. | |||||||
09-08-19 | Chiefs v. Jaguars +4 | 40-26 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 19 m | Show | |
The Jaguars should be closer to their AFC South Division-winning form of two seasons ago than last year's 5-11 disaster with Nick Foles taking over at quarterback from Blake Bortles. Jacksonville retains much of its elite defense that gave up the fifth-fewest points and yards last season. The Chiefs are breaking in a new defensive scheme. Their defense surrendered the second-most yards last season and is without a number of key performers, including pass rushers Justin Houston, Dee Ford and safety Eric Berry. I don't see the Chiefs' defense being any better, probably even worse, than 2018 especially early in the season. The Jaguars have revenge for a 30-14 road loss to the Chiefs last season. Jacksonville's defense played well against Patrick Mahomes, but were done in by Bortles' four interceptions, including a pick-six. The Jaguars were missing their star running back, Leonard Fournett, in that game. Foles represents a huge improvement on turnover-prone Bortles. The weather is likely to be extremely hot this time of year in Jacksonville, which would add to the Jaguars' home field advantage. | |||||||
09-07-19 | Nevada v. Oregon -23.5 | Top | 6-77 | Win | 100 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
Oregon has won 14 straight home openers. The Ducks should have no problem extending that streak to 15 in a row hosting Nevada. Justin Herbert is in the short discussion for best QB in the country. He should find little resistance from a porous Nevada secondary. Oregon is off a brutal 27-21 loss to Auburn in which the Tigers scored the game-winning TD on a 26-yard pass with nine seconds left. Oregon has Montana on deck. So the Ducks should be fully focused for this matchup ready to take their frustrations out on a much weaker foe than Auburn. Nevada is in the opposite spot. The Wolf Pack pulled out a home victory against Purdue as a double-digit 'dog on a 56-yard field goal at the gun in their opener. Purdue had a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Wolf Pack, who couldn't stop the Boilermakers' passing attack. The Boilermakers were done in by a 5-0 turnover ratio. That's not likely to happen to a Reno opponent two straight weeks. The Wolf Pack aren't nearly as good as the Ducks and are in a huge letdown spot. Nevada nipped Oregon State at home early in the season last year and then fell, 63-44, on the road to Toledo the following week. Look for a similar pattern here. | |||||||
09-07-19 | Calgary v. Edmonton UNDER 48.5 | 33-17 | Loss | -120 | 89 h 23 m | Show | |
These same two teams just met this past Monday at Calgary and the Stampeders won, 25-9. Look for another Under in the rematch at Edmonton on Saturday. It's a short week, which favors the defense. So does the familarity. The Eskimos should play with a great deal of intensity and be prepared for Calgary QB Bo Levi MItchell, who had been out since Week 3 until playing this past Monday. Edmonton gives up the fewest yards per game in the CFL and third-fewest points. The Under has cashed in seven of their last nine games. Calgary allows the third-fewest yards per game in the league. The Stampeders have held four of their last six foes to 18 points or fewer. They have gone Under in six of their past seven away contests. | |||||||
09-07-19 | UL-Monroe v. Florida State OVER 63 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 72 h 27 m | Show | |
Florida State put up 31 points in the first half against Boise State opening week before not doing anything in the second half against the Broncos. That didn't sit well with Kendal Briles, the Seminoles' sharp offensive coordinator. Look for the Seminoles to put together two strong halves against a much weaker opponent. The Seminoles are playing at a much quicker tempo under Briles, who is in his first season at Florida State. They are facing an opponent that has a weak secondary. Louisiana Monroe can contribute to this total going Over, too. The Warhawks have one of the better quarterbacks in the Sun Belt Conference, Caleb Evans, and good depth at running back. The Over has cashed the past six times Florida State has played a non-conference game. | |||||||
09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA UNDER 45.5 | 23-14 | Win | 100 | 39 h 36 m | Show | |
Both team's star running backs are banged up and at less than 100 percent. San Diego State's Juwan Washington is dealing with an ankle injury, while UCLA's Joshua Kelley didn't play against Cincinnati due to a sore knee. Both are questionable to play Neither team has a good passing attack. San Diego State's Ryan Agnew is a game-manager type while UCLA's Dorian Thompson-Robinson could be the worst starting QB in the Pac-12. Both teams, though, are solid defensively. UCLA was strong against the run versus Cincinnati. | |||||||
09-07-19 | Nebraska -3 v. Colorado | 31-34 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 58 m | Show | |
Nebraska has been waiting a year for this rematch. The Cornhuskers lost, 33-28, at home to Colorado in their opener last season. It was Scott Frost's coaching debut for Nebraska and a bitter loss for the Cornhuskers made more bitter by the Buffaloes knocking out QB Adrian Martinez. Martinez is back and better than ever. He's one of the premier QB's in the country and a level higher than Colorado QB Steven Montez. The Cornhuskers rushed for 329 yards against the Buffaloes. Colorado was fortunate to open against a weak Colorado State team. The Buffaloes weren't as sharp in that game as the final score may have indicated and are down defensively from last season. Nebraska has the balanced offense to expose Colorado's defensive shortcomings. | |||||||
09-07-19 | Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 67 h 29 m | Show | |
Purdue has an elite passing attack. The Boilermakers have a veteran QB and a deep group of receivers, including the incomparable Rondale Moore. The Boilermakers are in a kill spot playing their first home game after blowing a 31-14 fourth-quarter lead to Nevada last week in a 34-31 loss. Purdue couldn't overcome a 5-0 turnover deficit. Look for the Boilermakers to be far less sloppy and far more comfortable at home. Vanderbilt lost a number of key players from last season. The Commodores are due for a regression. They were outclassed at home by Georgia, 30-6, this past week managing just 225 yards while surrendering nearly 500 yards. | |||||||
09-06-19 | Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
Boise State often is overpriced when playing at home. That's the case here especially with the Broncos coming off an upset road victory against Florida State in their opener last week. The Broncos have failed to cover in 16 of their last 23 home games. Freshman QB Hank Bachmeier spearheaded a tremendous Boise State comeback against the Seminoles as the Broncos rallied from a 31-13 deficit. The Broncos, though, are in a big letdown spot and Bachmeier will be challenged by a strong Marshall secondary. The Thundering Herd get a rare chance to play on national TV. They may be the best team in Conference USA. While Bachmeier gets a lot of attention for his heroics, Marshall sophomore QB Isiah Green looked good in his team's 56-17 win against Virginia Military Institute last week. Green is backed by a deep of running backs and receivers. | |||||||
09-06-19 | Yankees -123 v. Red Sox | 1-6 | Loss | -123 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Face it Red Sox nation. This isn't your season. The price is right to back the superior road Yankees, who despite multiple injuries own the best record in baseball. The Yankees have dominated the Red Sox this season winning 11 of 15 games. New York is hot, too, winners of eight of its last 10. New York has a rested bullpen, which Boston doesn't, and has a much better starter going in a pitching matchup of Domingo German versus journeyman Jhoulys Chacin. German is 17-3. He's given up three earned runs or less in nine of his last 11 starts. Chacin was released by the Brewers after posting a 3-10 mark and 5.79 ERA in 19 starts this season. Chacin last started back on July 24. | |||||||
09-05-19 | Giants v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
These two teams combined for 17 runs on Wednesday. Expect a far different outcome today in this early start day time get away game. Cardinals starter Dakota Hudson doesn't get much love from the marketplace. Metric handicappers dislike him. Hudson, though, keeps pitching well. He has a 1.77 ERA in his last three starts. Hudson is better at home, too, where he's 7-2 with a 3.14 ERA at Busch Stadium this season. The Under has cashed in eight of his past nine home starts. Logan Webb starts for the Giants. He's one of San Francisco's better pitching prospects. This will be his fourth big league start. The Cardinals have never faced him. Webb held the Padres to one run in 5 1/3 innings during his last start. Both starters are backed by strong bullpens and a solid Under home plate umpire in Cory Blaser. The Under is 97-68 (59 percent) during the past six seasons when Blaser has been behind the plate. | |||||||
09-04-19 | Mets v. Nationals -117 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Less than 24 hours after suffering their most brutal loss of the season - and one that realistically dents any playoff hopes - the Mets must play the Nationals on the road again with this day time start. The Nationals took out Jacob deGrom and the Mets by rallying for seven runs in the ninth inning to pull out a highly improbable 11-10 victory against the Mets on Tuesday night. Before this game, teams with a six-run lead in the ninth were unbeaten this season at 274-0. That loss was the Mets' eighth in their last 11 games and puts them five games behind the Cubs for the last wild card spot in the NL. The defeat also might have sealed the fate of Mets manager Mickey Callaway. The shell shocked Mets are in no shape mentally to face the Nationals in such a short turnaround. Washington is red-hot going 20-6 inits last 26 games. The pitching matchup is Zach Wheeler versus Anibal Sanchez. Wheeler is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in four starts against Washington this season. The Nationals have scored seven or more runs in 13 of their last 16 games. Sanchez has a 3.80 ERA compared to Wheeler's 4.41 ERA. Sanchez is 8-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his last 16 starts. | |||||||
09-03-19 | Angels v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Start on May 7 and you'll find that Mike Fiers has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's 11-0 since then with a 2.41 ERA holding batters to a .214 average in 127 innings. This is span of 20 starts. Fiers is a fly ball pitcher who loves pitching at spacious Oakland Coliseum where he is 8-2 with a 2.92 ERA this season. He has dominated the Angels this season with a 3-0 record and 1.93 ERA in three starts. Angels starter Jaime Barria has a 6.10 ERA. However, Barria has shown signs of improvement lately giving up two runs apiece in each of his last two starts spanning 5 and 5 1/3 innings. Those starts were at Houston and Texas, two ballparks that are far more offensively-inclined than Oakland's pitcher-friendly Coliseum. | |||||||
09-02-19 | Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville | Top | 35-17 | Push | 0 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
Notre Dame is going to get its points in this one. Louisville's defense was terrible last season giving up an average of 44.1 points and 483.5 yards a game. The Cardinals ranked among the bottom-four in those important defensive categories. They are on their fourth defensive coordinator in four years. Making it worse, the Cardinals also got poor punting last season. Notre Dame averaged better than 36 points a game last year after Ian Book became its starting QB in Week 4. I can't see Louisville keeping up. The Cardinals have many questions on the offensive side of the ball. New coach Scott Satterfield seems like a good hire based on his track record at Appalachian State. But it's going to take time to fix the huge mess Bobby Petrino left him. Drawing Notre Dame for their opener is a real bad break for the Cardinals, who have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 home games and are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 nonleague games. | |||||||
09-02-19 | Edmonton v. Calgary UNDER 49.5 | 9-25 | Win | 100 | 152 h 44 m | Show | |
It may be easy to see offense here between these two teams. But it would be a mistake. The two teams met a month ago and Calgary won, 24-18, at home. That was a combined total of 42 points. Calgary has held four of its last seven foes to fewer than 19 points a game. Stampeders linebacker Cory Greenwood leads the CFL in tackles. Edmonton gives up the fewest yards per game in the league and the second-fewest points at 19.8 per game. The Under has won 80 percent of the time during the Eskimos' past 11 road contests going 8-2-1. | |||||||
09-02-19 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
This total is too high. But I understand why the oddsmaker set this total so high. Joe Ross isn't perceived as a good pitcher and Noah Syndergaard is coming off his worst start of the season. The Nationals are swinging very hot bats, too, scoring seven or more runs in nine of their last 10 games. It's impressive how hot the Nationals' offense is. Syndergaard can halt any attack if he's on his game. Until his last start this past Wednesday against the Cubs, Syndergaard was pitching his best ball of the season posting a 1.82 ERA during his previous eight games before the Cubs bombed him for 10 runs in three innings. I believe the prideful Syndergaard comes back with a strong performance. He's thrown quality games in eight of his past nine starts. He also has a 2.49 ERA on the season in day action. While Syndergaard is high profile, Ross is way below the radar. He was so bad earlier in the season that he was sent to the minors. But he's made necessary adjustments and has been very sharp since returning to the big leagues going 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA during his past five starts. The Under is 7-1-1 in Ross's last nine starts. The Mets have been held to two or fewer runs in six of their last 10 games. The Nationals also have their best reliever, Sean Doolittle, back from injury. Note there is a slight wind blowing out, but it is toward center field. | |||||||
09-01-19 | Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
I'm not buying that Oklahoma is more than three touchdowns better than Houston. In fact, I like Houston QB D'Eriq King more than Sooners QB Jalen Hurts. I regard King as the top QB in college football especially now that he has Dana Holgorsen as his head coach. King has the rare opportunity to showcase his skills in front of a national TV audidence with the game on ABC. Holgorsen is an offensive guru. He was head coach at West Virginia last year. The Mountaineers played Oklahoma last season and narrowly lost, 59-56. The Sooners shouldn't be laying this high of a number to such a strong offense. Oklahoma was last in the nation in pass defense in 2018 while ranking at the bottom in the Big 12 in scoring defense and total defense. The Sooners also have a question mark at kicker as the FBS' all-time leading scorer among kickers, Austin Seibert, has left. This is going to be a shootout of the highest proportions. Houston was very weak against the run last season. And that was with stud Ed Oliver. But the Cougars have defensive line depth, experience at the safety spots and get to go against the Sooners in their first game breaking in four new offensive line starters. | |||||||
08-31-19 | Twins -130 v. Tigers | Top | 7-10 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
The Tigers are home. That's great news for the Twins since Detroit is 17-47 at home. The Twins are one of the better teams in baseball. They could break the single-season record for home runs during this series. That's how powerful they are. At this low road price, the Twins are a bargain versus this opponent. The pitching matchup is Martin Perez versus Matt Boyd. These two just faced each other six days ago in Minnesota. The Twins got to Boyd for seven earned runs in six innings, while Perez held the Tigers to two earned runs in six innings. Boyd still is getting some respect from the oddsmaker. He's perceived as Detroit's top pitcher. This isn't saying much. Boyd also hasn't been respectable like he was earlier in the season. He's allowed 19 earned runs in his last four starts spanning 21 innings. Boyd's ERA during his last 13 starts is a fat 6.05. He's also given up an average of 2.6 homers per nine innings in those last 13 outings. The Twins' power hitters should feast on him. Perez, by contrast, has allowed just four earned in his last three starts spanning 17 innings. The Twins' bullpen has been very good this month. Detroit has lost six in a row, averaging 2.8 runs per game during this losing streak. The Twins have won six straight. They are averaging 8.6 runs a game during their win streak. So, yeah, at this bargain price the Twins are worth laying road chalk. | |||||||
08-31-19 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +4 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 172 h 41 m | Show |
Virginia Tech's defense was historically bad under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster last year. The Hokies should be improved as they can't get much worse. But it's going to take time. The Hokies gave up 31 points a game last season, which ranked 85th. They were 98th in yards allowed and their run defense ranked 106th. BC has one of the top running backs in the nation, AJ Dillon. He's fresh and healthy, something he wasn't last year. Eagles QB Anthony Brown has experience and is capable of running the offense. He has improved as a passer. The Eagles won, 31-21, against Virginia Tech last season on the road. I do think the Hokies will be better, but this isn't a good matchup for them and it's the first game. So I'll gladly accept these points. | |||||||
08-31-19 | Akron v. Illinois UNDER 61 | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
Maybe it's a leap of faith to project these defenses to be improved. But I believe this total is too high. Akron actually has some good linebackers and a very good safety, Alvin Davis. The Zips held seven of their last 10 foes to 28 points or less in 2018. Illinois had a very bad defense last year. That's a reason why this total is so high. But the Illini have some promising young players on defense. They also figure to play ball control in this matchup running the ball alot with Reggie Corbin. Lovie Smith is a very conservative coach and he's favored by close to three touchdowns in this game. So expect Illinois not to take any chances. Just be very vanilla especially since this is the first game. | |||||||
08-31-19 | Akron +19 v. Illinois | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
Illinois isn't nearly good enough to be laying this many points even to a low-level MAC team such as Akron. The Illini have averaged three wins during the past three seasons during the Lovie Smith era. The Illini finished 1-6 in their last seven games and and had the worst defense in the Big Ten. They ranked fifth from the bottom in the NCAA in yards allowed. They are not used to this reverse role where the pressure not only is on them to win but cover a huge number. Akron won't lack motivation playing its first game under new coach Tom Arth. The Zips have firepower. Their strength is at the skill positions with quarterback Kato Nelson and three decent wide receivers. The Zips upset Northwestern, 39-34, in their first road game last season. Illinois also played Northwestern last year and lost to the Wildcats, 24-16. | |||||||
08-30-19 | Colorado State v. Colorado -12.5 | 31-52 | Win | 100 | 154 h 50 m | Show | |
The gap has gotten wider between these two in-state rivals. That was evident last season when Colorado blasted the Rams, 45-13. I see the Buffaloes winning by at least two touchdowns again. New Colorado head coach Mel Tucker will be wanting to make a statement. He has the wide edge in athletes to accomplish that. The Buffaloes should be solid on defense under defensive-minded Tucker and their offense should pick up being more up-tempo than before under Mike MacIntyre. Steven Montez is a solid quarterback and the Buffaloes are deep at receiver. Laviska Shenault is in the argument for best wideout in the nation and the Rams are shaky at linebacker. Note this game is being played in Denver. Colorado State has failed to cover the past eight times it has played at a neutral site. | |||||||
08-30-19 | Purdue -9.5 v. Nevada | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 250 h 47 m | Show |
If I could pick one wide receiver to have on my college football team it would be Purdue's Rondale Moore. He's the most exciting player in college football in my view. This is a perfect storm of key factors that point to Purdue beating Nevada by double-digits. Moore heads up a very strong group of Purdue receivers. Even tight end Brycen Hopkins is very good for the Boilermakers. Senior QB Elijah Sindelar is underrated at this point. He's going to have a big season with so many talented receiving targets. Nevada has a very weak secondary. The Wolf Pack also are untested at quarterback, smaller than Purdue and weaker in the trenches. The Boilermakers have been pointing to this game for a long time after being humiliated, 63-14, by Auburn in the Music City Bowl. Purdue has won each of its road openers under Jeff Brohm beating Nebraska, 42-28, last year and Missouri, 35-3, two seasons ago. Those are better teams than Nevada. The Boilermakers can't misfire here knowing Vanderbilt and TCU are up next for them before they enter Big Ten action. So expect a strong, focused effort from the better team that should result in an easy victory. | |||||||
08-30-19 | Mets v. Phillies -131 | 11-5 | Loss | -131 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
There aren't many things the Phillies can count out. The one person they can rely on is Aaron Nola, who takes the mound here against the Mets. Nola is 6-3 with a 2.27 ERA in his last 13 starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of those 13 starts. Philadelphia is a dominant 30-11 (73%) in Nola's last 41 home starts. The Phillies have defeated the Mets seven of the past eight times when Nola has gone against them. The Mets are going with Zach Wheeler, who is back in bad form with a 6.75 ERA in his past three starts. New York has lost six straight games. The Mets have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last seven games. | |||||||
08-30-19 | Rice v. Army OVER 48 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 7 m | Show |
You better be able to stop the run when playing Army. Rice can't do that. The Owls ranked 112th in scoring defense and 103rd in yards given up last season. Things don't look much better for Rice this season as the Owls had several defections on their defensive line. Army has the quarterback and ground attack to take advantage. The Black Knights finished No. 2 in rushing last season. Army QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. was the first player in Army history to run and pass for more than 1,000 yards. Rice has excellent depth at wide receiver and at running back. The Owls even have a good tight end. Army's defense is down several key seniors from a year ago and has some vulnerability at linebacker that Rice can exploit. The Over is 12-3-2 the past 17 times Rice has played a non-conference opponent. | |||||||
08-29-19 | Chiefs v. Packers -140 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
Due to bad stadium conditions, the Packers held nearly all of their starters and top backups out last week against the Raiders in Canada. New Packers coach Matt LaFleur needs to see more to know about his team especially viewing a spirited battle between Tim Boyle and DeShone Kizer for the backup QB spot. The strength of the Packers is their wide receiving depth, which has eight players worthy of roster inclusion. The Chiefs' major weakness is cornerback depth. Indications are the Chiefs are taking this final preseason game much less serious than the Packers. Kansas City won't risk its starters, nor many of its backups either. The Chiefs just lost backup QB Chad Henne to a broken ankle. They signed veteran Matt Moore, but he won't be ready to play Thursday. That leaves the QB rotation to Kyle Shurmur and Chase Litton, neither of whom is good enough to likely make the Chiefs roster. Their combined preseason passing figures are 40-for-72 (55 percent) completions for 387 yards. | |||||||
08-29-19 | UCLA v. Cincinnati UNDER 58 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
This total has been bet down, but there still is value on the Under. The teams met in their opening game last year and the Bearcats won, 26-17. Cincinnati held UCLA to just 306 total yards of offense. The Bearcats led the AAC in scoring defense and run defense last season. Their defense should be tough again this year. I'm not sold either on UCLA sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. UCLA has good size on its defensive line. Cincinnati does possess excellent talent at the skill positions. However, the Bearcats have an inexperienced offensive line. Look for both teams to stay on the ground a lot, which eats clock. When the Bruins throw it could be short passes to their running backs. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,325 |
Dan Kaiser | $1,247 |
Jesse Schule | $666 |
Mike Lundin | $633 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Jim Feist | $402 |
Marc Lawrence | $400 |
Big Al McMordie | $325 |
AAA Sports | $316 |
Tom Macrina | $290 |