Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-30-18 | Senators v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
Arizona is averaging five goals per game during its last last three games. The Coyotes get to face the league's worst defense as Ottawa ranks in the bottom-two in many of the major defensive categories. Ottawa also is shorthanded on the blue line with Mark Borowiecki suspended. The Senators, though, rank sixth in goals scored per game. They have gone Over in each of their last five road games. | |||||||
10-30-18 | Clippers v. Thunder -145 | 110-128 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
The Thunder have had this game circled after losing to the Clippers, 108-92, at home 11 days ago. Oklahoma City was without Russell Westbrook in that game. Westbrook has played in three games now. The rust is off and the Thunder are ready to make a move. They looked good in dispatching the Suns, 117-110, at home this past Sunday. That was the Thunder's first win after opening the season with four consecutive losses. Oklahoma City beat the Clippers in both meetings last season, winning by an average of 8.5 points. Now that Westbrook is back and in sync with Paul George and newcomer Dennis Schroder, the Thunder should start playing better. | |||||||
10-30-18 | Blazers v. Rockets -3 | Top | 104-85 | Loss | -111 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
The Rockets are off to a horrendous 1-4 start after winning an NBA-best 65 games last season. I understand the Rockets have yet to resemble anything they looked like last season and will be without injured James Harden. Still, I believe the Rockets are primed for a monster effort. They have been idle since Friday. Portland, on the other hand, played on Monday night and upset the Pacers in Indiana. This marks Portland's third game in four days. The Trail Blazers do not have great depth and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times following a victory. Houston has owned Portland in the past winning seven of the last eight meetings, including all four last season. | |||||||
10-30-18 | Kings v. Magic -4 | 107-99 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 40 m | Show | |
Yes, laying points with Orlando is a new experience, an experience I rarely want to go through. But it's justified here. The Kings appear improved this season, but they are in a real letdown spot after upsetting the Heat in Miami Monday night for their third straight victory. However, this marks the Kings' fifth game in eight days and second in two nights. Orlando is up and down. But the Magic have the better talent with Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic are capable of good things having already defeated the Heat and Celtics while losing by only one point to the 76ers. Orlando is better coached than in previous seasons and is surrendering eight fewer points per game than the Kings, who rank 27th defensively. | |||||||
10-29-18 | Wild v. Canucks +135 | 2-5 | Win | 135 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
The Canucks are far more dangerous when they have star goal scorers Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson in the lineup. Both are back healthy. Vancouver's power play is much more deadlier with those two on the ice. Minnesota is a road favorite based in part on a five-game win streak. Note, though, that four of those victories came at home for the Wild. They have a losing road record this season. Vancouver has an overall winning record. However, the Canucks are coming off a 5-0 home loss to Pittsburgh. The Canucks shouldn't lack for motivation here while the Wild is playing the first of seven away matchups. The Canucks will be minus goalie Andres Nilsson becaused of a broken finger. Luckily for the Canucks they have another solid goalie, Jacob Markstrom, who has been playing well. | |||||||
10-29-18 | Blazers v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. The Pacers are playing well having won their last two games - both on the road - in blowout fashion beating the Spurs, 116-96, this past Wednesday and Cavaliers, 119-107, on Saturday. Now the Pacers are home where they are 2-0 this season having destroyed the Grizzlies by 28 points and Nets by 20. Portland is better than those two teams. However, the Trail Blazers are just a borderline playoff team and they carry a fatigue rating playing their third road game in five days. Portland has failed to cover in five of its last six away matchups. They Trail Blazers have a bigger game on deck when they play the Rockets in Houston. The time to play the Pacers is now as I anticipate the line will go up. There's also an outside chance Portland's star point guard Damian Lillard could be out as he's nursing a sore right elbow. | |||||||
10-28-18 | Wizards v. Clippers UNDER 229.5 | 104-136 | Loss | -116 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
The NBA is a very high scoring league so far this season. The Wizards have contributed to that with their last ranked defense. But there are circumstances here that set up an Under play with this very big opening total. Let's start with the Clippers. They rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. That's not a surprise considering how many excellent perimeter defenders they have, including Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. Luc Mbah a Moute is very good, too, but he may not play because of a sore knee. LA is giving up the 10th-fewest points in the league. That's impressive since the Clippers haven't met an Eastern Conference foe yet. The Wizards are their first one. The Clippers have gone against a number of strong Western Conference offenses. Their opponents have been the Nuggets, Thunder, Rockets twice and Pelicans. Western teams play up-tempo and fast. The Wizards are likely to play a a slower pace considering this is their fourth road game in six days. I also expect the Wizards to put a tremendous effort into their defense after John Wall and Bradley Beal spoke out about how selfish and bad the team is defensively. This happened after the Wizards lost 116-112 to the Kings Friday at Sacramento. That dropped Washington to 1-4. So look for the Wizards to use what effort they have left to clamp down on the defensive end. | |||||||
10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings -107 | 30-20 | Loss | -107 | 76 h 54 m | Show | |
It's not too much to ask the Vikings to win this game. The Saints have won five in a row. However, they beat the Falcons in overtime and were lucky to nip the Ravens by one point last week. This marks the fourth time in their last five games the Saints are playing on the road, too. Minnesota has one of the top homefields in the NFL covering 70 percent of its last 52 home games. The Vikings hold a strong edge on defense and Kirk Cousins, who is having an excellent season, has better wide receiving and tight end weapons with Adam Thielen, Stefan Diggs and Kyle Rudolph. The Saints are due for a loss - and it comes here. | |||||||
10-28-18 | 49ers +1 v. Cardinals | Top | 15-18 | Loss | -109 | 127 h 40 m | Show |
There are degrees of being pathetic. The Cardinals are more pathetic than the 49ers. At least San Francisco is well-coached, plays hard all the time and doesn't have nearly the dissension and lack of confidence Arizona has. This is a huge revenge game for the 49ers. They lost to the Cardinals just three weeks ago, 28-18. The 49ers outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards, but cost themselves by committing five turnovers. C.J. Beathard is one of the better backup quarterbacks. I would take him operating behind Kyle Shanahan's sharp schemes and decent receivers, including emerging star tight end George Kittle, than rookie Josh Rosen, who has a horrible offensive line and declining skill position players. It's not a fluke the Cardianls are last in yards gained per game and last in run defense. They are the worst team in the NFC. | |||||||
10-28-18 | Browns v. Steelers -8 | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 123 h 29 m | Show | |
The Browns couldn't beat the Steelers opening week despite coming up with six takeaways. Cleveland surely isn't going to beat the Steelers now when Pittsburgh is home and rested following a bye. Cleveland is tired and demoralized having played three overtime games in the last four weeks, including last Sunday in the high heat and humidity of central Florida losing on a late field goal. The Steelers has gotten into gear. They are averaging nearly 35 points during their last two games. The Browns have surrendered at least 26 points in three of their past four games and have key defensive injuries, including one to linebacker Joe Schobert. Cleveland last won at Heinz Field in 2003. The Browns have lost 24 consecutive road games. They are 4-10-1 ATS during their past 15 away matchups. The Browns remain as poorly coached as ever under Hue Jackson. | |||||||
10-28-18 | Broncos v. Chiefs -10 | 23-30 | Loss | -109 | 122 h 42 m | Show | |
You can't stop the Chiefs. You can only hope to contain them and Denver can't do that. The Chiefs offense is clicking on all cylinders behing Andy Reid's sharp designs and second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who clearly is in the argument for MVP with eye-popping statistics such as 22 touchdown passes in seven games. The Chiefs have covered every one of their seven games. I don't expect that streak to stop here. Vance Joseph is dead man walking. He can't coach. The Broncos' defense isn't as good as perceived and their offense could be making a quarterback change soon as Case Keenum hasn't come close to repeating his magical 2017 season. Kansas City's defense is improving and is tough at home surrendering an average of only 12 points during its past two games at Arrowhead Stadium. It's an added bonus if Justin Houston and Eric Berry return this week. | |||||||
10-28-18 | Eagles -3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 141 h 25 m | Show |
Neither the Eagles nor Jaguars have played up to expectations this season. Both are coming off surprising home losses. I trust the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles far more than the Jaguars to bounce back in this London game. Carson Wentz is rounding into shape nearing upper-tier status again. He has far better weapons with Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz than the Jaguars have especially when they remain without Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville is playing its worst ball having lost three in a row. The Jaguars defense isn't as good as it was last season. They aren't getting takeaways to set up their offense. Jacksonville's offense is a total mess because it doesn't have a quality starting quarterback. The Jaguars have produced just 28 points during their last three games. Neither turnover-prone Blake Bortles, nor weak-armed, checkdown passer Cody Kessler is the answer at quarterback. The Eagles are the much more balanced team solid on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars are held hostage by their horrendous quarterback play. They don't have a quarterback on their roster who can fix the problem. | |||||||
10-27-18 | Lakers v. Spurs UNDER 230.5 | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show | |
It takes a brave and foolish person to try to make an Under work this season in the NBA. But I'm going to make the attempt with the Under in this matchup. Yes, I understand these teams just met Monday and the final score was Spurs 143, Lakers 142 in overtime. But this second matchup in five days should result in better defense since the teams just saw each other. Proper defensive adjustments should be forthcoming. The Lakers carry a fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days. So they shouldn't be looking to play racehorse basketball. They actually could be playing more deliberate. Point guard Rajon Rondo returns, too, from suspension. He's still learning his new team and visa versa. The Spurs are coming off a very bad 116-96 home loss to the Pacers this past Wednesday. Gregg Popovich ripped his team for their lack of defense. So I'm expecting a much stronger defensive effort from the prideful Spurs. | |||||||
10-27-18 | Texas A&M +1.5 v. Mississippi State | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
The Aggies were idle last week, get several key injured players back and have the top run defense in the SEC to contain Mississippi State's ground attack. If the Bulldogs can't run they are in trouble because Nick Fitzgerald has passed for fewer than 100 yards in his last three games. The Bulldogs lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage of the Aggies' vulnerable secondary. Texas A&M gets back wide receiver Kendruck Rogers and right guard Keaton Sutherland from injuries. Rogers may be the Aggies' best wideout. While Texas A&M had its bye last week, the Bulldogs were suffering a 19-3 road loss to LSU. Mississippi State is 1-3 in its last four games while averaging fewer than 10 points a game during this four-game span. | |||||||
10-27-18 | Georgia -6.5 v. Florida | Top | 36-17 | Win | 100 | 44 h 1 m | Show |
Recall if you will last season after Auburn beat Georgia, 40-17. The Bulldogs came back from that beatdown to post four straight wins and covers to reach the national championship game. I see the Bulldogs bouncing back against Florida here. Georgia was idle last week after suffering its first loss of the season to LSU in its previous game. LSU kept Georgia in check that game. But the Bulldogs offense is too good to be held down a second consecutive game. Florida ranks 73rd in run defense. The Bulldogs have a stable of outstanding running backs headed by D'Andre Swift. Georgia can beat Florida on the ground, or through the air behind Jake Fromm if the Gators bring their safeties into the box. I don't see Florida's offense keeping up with a Bulldogs defense that gives up the 13th-fewest points per game at 16.3. The Bulldogs crushed the Gators, 42-7, last season. | |||||||
10-27-18 | Oregon State v. Colorado UNDER 62.5 | 41-34 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
Oregon State is down to its third-string quarterback, sophomore Jack Colleto. The Beavers finished with seven points against Cal last week when Colleto replaced injured Conor Blount. Colorado is coming off its two lowest yardage totals of the seasons, scoring just 33 points in its last two games. Laviska Shenault, the Buffaloes' star wide receiver, may not play because of toe injury. There also is a weather element with winds in the 10-15 mph range being forecasted. All of this should result in an Under. | |||||||
10-27-18 | North Carolina +9 v. Virginia | 21-31 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
Virginia is flying high posting upset victories against Miami and Duke during its past two games. North Carolina is 1-5. So this appears to be a letdown spot for the Cavaliers as it's difficult for a team to get up for three straight games especially when that team isn't dominant. Just don't be shocked if the Tar Heels pull the outright win. They are a very dangerous team now being healthy and having their suspended players back. North Carolina lost to Virginia Tech and Syracuse by three points apiece in its past two games with the loss to Syracuse coming in double overtime. The Tar Heels have covered six of their last seven ACC games and are 4-0 ATS in their past four visits to Virginia. I find Virginia to be overrated. The Cavaliers are being overvalued here with this large of a spread. Jordan Ellis, the Cavaliers' leading rusher with 619 yards, is dealing with an ankle injury. North Carolina has revenge for a 20-14 loss to Virginia last season. Before that, the Tar Heels defeated the Cavaliers seven consecutive times. North Carolina quarterback Nathan Elliott is coming on. He threw for a career-high 321 yards and two touchdowns against Syracuse last week. He has gone 161 passes without an interception. The Tar Heels always have been able to run the ball ranking third in the ACC in yards per carry at 5.1. There won't be a lack of points scored here. But North Carolina certainly will be able to keep up. | |||||||
10-27-18 | Army v. Eastern Michigan OVER 47 | 37-22 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
Army is averaging 41.6 points in its last three games. The Black Knights are the No. 2 rushing team in the country. Eastern Michigan ranks 111th in run defense. The Black Knights have gone Over in 17 of their last 23 games against foes from the Mid-American Conference. Eastern Michigan has picked up its offense averaging 35 points in its last two games. | |||||||
10-27-18 | Panthers v. Devils -129 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
The Devils are primed to halt their three-game losing streak after falling in overtime to the Predators on Thursday. New Jersey should have a lot of focus knowing they go on the road for seven straight away games following this one. The Devils have the better offense and goalie. They are 8-3 in their last 11 home games. | |||||||
10-27-18 | Panthers v. Devils UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Given the Devils' offense and Panthers' lack of defense, the oddsmaker has to lable this matchup with a total of 6. But there are circumstances that point to an Under. Note the starting time: It's noon East Coast time. So this is an early start day game. That often means a sluggish performance for the offenses. It's a plus for the Under. The Devils have a cluster injury problem. Among those out are forwards Jesper Bratt and Drew Stafford with the possibility that Marcus Johansson also could be missing. He's questionable because of illness having missed Friday's practice. The two teams met three times last season. None of those games resulted in more than a combined five goals being scored. The Under, in fact, has cashed the past four times they've met. | |||||||
10-26-18 | Bucks v. Wolves +1.5 | 125-95 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
It's a mistake for the Bucks to be favored in this road spot. Yes Milwaukee is 4-0. The Bucks just beat the 76ers, 123-108, at home on Wednesday. Milwaukee is fat and happy. The Timberwolves are a bit more desperate at 2-3. Now look at the spot. The Bucks have been home for the past three games. After this matchup they go back to Milwaukee to host the Magic on Saturday and the Raptors on Monday. Minnesota is 2-0 at home. The Timberwolves' losses have all come on the road to the Spurs, improved Mavericks and Raptors. Jimmy Butler has rounded into shape. The Timberwolves don't play again until Monday. They'll be going all out in this one. | |||||||
10-26-18 | Mavs +11.5 v. Raptors | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 57 m | Show | |
Toronto is riding high opening 5-0. The Raptors, though, have given up triple-digits in all of their games. The Mavericks are much improved from last season with the additions of rookie point guard Luka Doncic and center DeAndre Jordan. Yet Dallas is below-the-radar. The Mavericks are sitting at 2-2. They should be 3-1, though, coming off a disgusting 111-104 road loss to the Hawks in which they blew a 26-point lead. Dallas should come out hard after blowing that game to the Hawks. There's a good chance, too, the Mavericks get Harrison Barnes for the first time this season. He's been out with a hamstring injury. Barnes is an underrated veteran who has averaged close to 20 points each of the last two seasons. | |||||||
10-26-18 | Miami-FL v. Boston College +3.5 | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
There is plenty of value here with Boston College being this big of an underdog when it should actually be favored. The facts are these: The Eagles are 4-0 at home and 5-2 overall. Their two losses have been to North Carolina State and Purdue. No shame in that especially since Purdue just upset Ohio State. Boston College gets back star running back AJ Dillon from an ankle injury. Look for the Eagles' offensive line and ground game to control the line of scrimmage against the Hurricanes. This is the best running attack Miami has seen all season. The warm-weathered Hurricanes will be playing in low 40-degree weather. They are are 1-4 in their last five road games and going up against an emotionally-charged Boston College and atmosphere. The game is being called "Red Bandanna/Service Day Game" to honor Welles Crowther, who was a former BC lacrosse player who saved the lives of several people during the 9-11 attacks before perishing. Miami is going to have to contend with this road setting while still trying to get its quarterback situation settled. Malik Rosier is going to get the start after N'Kosi Perry's poor play in the Hurricanes' last game, a 16-13 road loss to Virginia. Rosier isn't a very good passer either. He's completing just 52 percent of his throws. | |||||||
10-25-18 | Capitals v. Oilers +121 | 1-4 | Win | 121 | 21 h 59 m | Show | |
Washington has struggled in Edmonton losing in nine of its last 13 visits there. The Oilers are coming off a tough 6-5 home loss to the Penguins where they fired 46 shots on goal. Washington opened its current four-game road trip with a 5-2 victory against the Canucks. The Capitals are giving up an average of five goals per game during their last six six games. Edmonton has the offense to take advantage. Connor McDavid has scored nine points in his last five games. This is Edmonton's finale of a four-game homestand. Look for the Oilers to play with the greater sense of urgency and pull out the upset win. | |||||||
10-25-18 | Canadiens +104 v. Sabres | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
Both the Canadiens and Sabres appear much improved. This spot, though, sets up well for Montreal. Buffalo just went a surprising 3-2 on its five-game Western road trip that lasted for 10 days. The Sabres concluded their journey by beating the Kings, 5-1 on Saturday, and the Ducks, 4-2, on Sunday. This is their first game back home. Buffalo is 0-6 the past six times when not having played for three or more days. Montreal is playing well, too. Only once have the Canadiens lost in regulation in their eight games. Backup goalie Antti Niemi is scheduled to get the start. I'm fine with that. Montreal is 2-0 the two times Niemi has been in goal. The Canadiens swept all four meetings with the Sabres last season and are 4-1 during their last five visits to Buffalo. | |||||||
10-25-18 | Flyers v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Philadelphia is a strong Over road team. Boston is a strong Over home team. The Flyers have not gone below the total during their last eight away matchups. The Over is 14-4-2 in the Bruins' last 20 home contests. The Flyers are averaging 3.7 goals in their last four games. They have the worst defense in the league so offense is a priority for them. The Bruins have multiple injuries to their defensive units. | |||||||
10-24-18 | Lakers -140 v. Suns | Top | 131-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
The Lakers are 0-3 and will be without suspended point guard Rajon Rondo and small forward Brandon Ingram when they play the Suns on the road. I like the Lakers a lot here and because the spread is so short, I can back the Lakers on the money line. Phoenix is an improving team with some young, promising talent. But they are not nearly in the Lakers' class now that LA has LeBron James. The Lakers opened against the Trail Blazers on the road, the Rockets and Spurs, who they lost to in overtime on Monday. Now the Lakers finally get a lottery team opponent. Look for James and the Lakers to play with a great deal of urgency and desperation now, something they may not have done against the lowly Suns if not for their winless record. The Suns went up against the best team in basketball in their last game and were whipped 123-103 on the road by the Warriors Monday night. The Lakers aren't 20 points better than the Suns like the Warriors are, but they are still much superior to Phoenix even minus Rondo and Ingram. The Lakers are a deep team. James not only makes the Lakers a playoff team, but a team that could win several playoff series. James and Lonzo Ball can handle the point guard duties. Lance Stephenson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are a pair of solid pros who can step up when called upon mitigating the loss of Ingram. | |||||||
10-24-18 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Now that the Golden Knights have settled in back home they are playing much better. Las Vegas had to go on a brutal five-game road trip early in the season. But the Knights have been back in Las Vegas for its past two games. They are riding a three-game winning streak where they have outscored their foes, 8-2. The Knights' power play has picked up, their fourth line remains solid and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has stopped 69 of 71 shots during the win streak. Vancouver has been missing its two best scorers with Brock Boeser and Elias Pettersson both out. The rookie Pettersson was really providing a spark, but is doubtful to play here as he continues to rest from a concussion. The Canucks have managed only four goals in regulation during their last three games. Vegas swept all four meetings against Vancouver last season winning each of its two home games by three goals. | |||||||
10-23-18 | Kings +11 v. Nuggets | 112-126 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
Denver is off to a great start going 3-0 for its best beginning in nine years. But don't overlook the Kings. They have covered two of their three games, beat the Thunder by 11 points on the road and are averaging 125.7 points a game. The Nuggets might be a little fat and happy. They also are in a sandwich spot having just upset the defending champion Warriors and have a marquee matchup coming on Thursday against LeBron James and the Lakers. Sacramento has been below the radar on the road since last season. The Kings are 13-6 (68 percent) in their last 19 away matchups. De'Aaron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein and Buddy Hield all look like improved players. Rookie Marvin Bagley III has improved Sacramento's frontline. The Nuggets are going to be without Will Barton for around five weeks after he suffered a hip injury. Barton is arguably the Nuggets' fourth-best player. | |||||||
10-23-18 | Penguins -121 v. Oilers | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show | |
The Penguins are coming off their best defensive game of the year, a 3-0 road victory against Toronto. The Maple Leafs were averaging 5.4 goals a game during their previous five games going into that matchup against the Penguins. Pittsburgh defeated Toronto this past Thursday. The Penguins haven't played since. So they should have a lot of energy. Pittsburgh has won 78 percent of its games the past 27 times when playing on three or more days rest. The Penguins, and especially Sidney Crosby, get up to play the Oilers because of Edmonton superstar Connor McDavid. Pittsburgh has dominated the Oilers winning 16 of the past 21 meetings, including the past four in Edmonton. The Oilers have been held to two goals or fewer in four of their six games. | |||||||
10-23-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
The oddsmaker can't really set a total lower than this given the offenses of the Dodgers and Red Sox. Still, it's too high for this Game 1 World Series matchup given the starting pitching matchup, fully rested bullpens and cool New England October night weather. Clayton Kershaw has erased his previous postseason blues by pitching well in the playoffs. The Brewers couldn't touch him. Boston has the added disadvantage of never having faced Kershaw. By the same token, the current Dodgers haven't seen lefty Chris Sale since he last pitched against the Dodgers in 2012. Sale had another brilliant season with a 2.11 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 237-to-34. The Dodgers have had problems versus southpaws during the playoffs batting only .207 against them. | |||||||
10-22-18 | Magic +12 v. Celtics | Top | 93-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
The combination of Orlando being an improved up-and-coming team upgraded by a coaching change and the Celtics trying to figure out their right rotations puts me on the Magic. There's a buzz going on in New England right now. It's not about the Celtics at this early juncture of the season. It's about the Patriots and Red Sox being back in the World Series. It is just the fourth game of the season. Brad Stevens is a master coach. But he's trying to figure out all the pieces. Remember the Celtics didn't have Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward during the playoffs. The Celtics have not looked sharp in their previous two games losing on the road to the Raptors and nipping the Knicks, 103-101, as a 9 1/2-point road favorite this past Saturday. The Magic may have their best coach of the past six years with Steve Clifford. He inherits a roster with some young emerging talent with Aaron Gordon and reliable veterans Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. The Magic were without these players for much of last season because they often were hurt. Orlando has more inside depth this season with rookie Mo Bamba. Vucevic is coming off a monster game against the 76ers where he had 27 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists. Orlando lost that game, 116-115, as a 12 1/2-point road 'dog. The Celtics' inside defense is likely to be missing big man Aaron Baynes, who has a hamstring injury. Orlando often is underrated on the road. The Magic are 13-6-1 ATS in their past 20 away matchups for 68 percent. | |||||||
10-22-18 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings +150 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
The Red Wings opened the season with seven straight losses. Detroit ended its losing streak in its last game, beating Florida, 4-3, in overtime on the road. That should prove a confidence boost for the Red Wings. This is just their third home game of the season. They lost in overtime to the Blue Jackets in their home opener and lost by two goals to Toronto, with the Maple Leafs' last goal coming via an empty net, in their other home matchup. So I find value in taking Detroit as a home 'dog at this mid-sized price. Carolina isn't playing well. The Hurricanes are on a three-game losing streak, scoring only four goals during this span. The Red Wings are very familiar with Carolina's goalie, Petr Mrazek. He played for Detroit for six seasons before leaving last year. Red Wings goalie Jimmy Howard has a .916 save percentage in nine all-time matchups against the Hurricanes. Carolina is 5-14-1 in its last 20 visits to Detroit. | |||||||
10-21-18 | Bengals v. Chiefs -6 | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Look for the Patrick Mahomes scorched earth policy to continue against the Bengals. Cincinnati, ranked 29th in total defense and 28th in passing defense, can't stop Mahomes and the high-flying Kansas City offense that ranks No. 2 in the NFL in scoring at 35.8 points per game. Andy Dalton can't keep up, especially on the road. Mahomes has an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Dalton has seven interceptions. The teams met during their second preseason game, which was in Cincinnati. Mahomes played for two drives and was unstoppable. He led KC to touchdowns on both drives throwing for two touchdown passes while compiling a 127.4 passer rushing. | |||||||
10-21-18 | Hawks v. Cavs -7 | 133-111 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
Not much is expected of Cleveland without LeBron James. The Cavaliers have lived up to those low expectations in their first two games going 0-2. Their losses came to the Raptors and Timberwolves - both on the road. The Cavaliers do have some prideful veterans, though, who want to prove they still can be competitive without James. So expect a strong effort from Cleveland in its home opener. The Cavaliers draw the Hawks, who just may be the worst team in the NBA. Atlanta is 0-2 suffering blowout losses to the Knicks (126-107) and to the Grizzlies (131-117). Those two teams are worse than the Raptors and Timberwolves. The Hawks committed an average of 21 1/2 turnovers in those two games and are playing for the third time in five days. There aren't going to be many times I'll be willing to lay mid-size points with the Cavaliers. This is one of those times, though. | |||||||
10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens -135 | 24-23 | Loss | -135 | 127 h 13 m | Show | |
Baltimore has the best defense in the NFL. The Ravens rank No. 1 in scoring defense giving up 12.8 points a game and they are No. 1 in permitting the fewest yards per game at 270.8. This defense is at its best at home. The Saints are flying high at 4-1. They've had the luxury of playing mediocre-to-horrendous defenses lighting up the Buccaneers, Falcons, Giants and Redskins. Yet they only managed 21 points against Cleveland at home. The Browns gave up 45 points to the Raiders three weeks ago and 38 points this past Sunday at home to the Chargers. Point being that the Saints are stepping way up in class facing this caliber of defense. Drew Brees is a first-ballot Hall of Famer. No argument there. But his numbers never have been as good away from the Louisiana Superdome. The Saints are going from their indoor fast track to a grass field. The Ravens' secondary has gone from solid to very good with the return of cornerback Jimmy Smith. I'm not a fan of Joe Flacco. But he's had a strong bounce back season and has the receiving targets to take advantage of a Saints defense that has shown regression and may be without their top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore. He's questionable with a concussion. The Saints were idle last week. They are a rhythm offense so I look at that as more of a negative. I project the Saints to really struggle offensively and to be out of sync trying to cope with a fierce Ravens pass rush, a strong Baltimore linebacking group headed by reliable C.J. Mosley and emerging star Za'Darius Smith and a pass defense that rates No. 2 in the league. | |||||||
10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens UNDER 50 | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 127 h 55 m | Show | |
The Saints have a very strong offense. But New Orleans is going to have problems playing on the road against the best defense in the NFL. Baltimore is strong in all defensive phases. That's why the Ravens are ranked first in fewest points and yards allowed. The Ravens defense is especially intimidating at home. This is an off-surface, too, for the Saints. They are at their best in their temperature-controlled indoor stadium. Now they are going to be on a slower grass field. Baltimore isn't a fancy offensive team. They milk clock and set up field goals for Justin Tucker, who I regard as the best kicker in all of football. This total opened too high based in part on the Saints' offensive reputation. | |||||||
10-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Jets | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 0 m | Show |
Some people are scared of road favorites in the NFL. This is a prime example of why you should not be afraid. The Vikings are vastly superior to the Jets. Minnesota started the season slow, but is starting to come on. The Vikings' defense is returning to their dominant ways. They have the pass rushers to overwhelm the Jets' mediocre offensive line and the veteran secondary that can cause rookie Sam Darnold problems. Darnold will be without his favorite receiver, too, with Quincy Enunwa out with an ankle injury. Kirk Cousins is having an excellent season, Adam Thielen may be the most reliable wide receiver in the NFL. He's the only one this season who has had 100 plus receiving yards in every game. The Vikings also got their ground game last week. It could be bolstered if Dalvin Cook is ready to return. The Vikings' offensive line is improving. It can hold their own against the Jets' defensive line. The Jets are stepping up in class after having faced the Broncos and Colts. I also give a strong checkmark to the Vikings in coaching with Mike Zimmer over Todd Bowles. | |||||||
10-21-18 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 34 m | Show |
Jacksonville still has a top-two caliber defense. The Jaguars still have their same defensive players. They just haven't been getting the huge number of takeaways and sacks they did last season. That should start to change with this matchup. DeShaun Watson isn't having the season he had last year before he got hurt. A big reason for that is he is operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The Texans can't protect Watson. He's already heavily beat-up. Watson doesn't have a run game to fall back on either. The Jaguars are going to be super-fired up returning home after embarrassing road losses to the Chiefs and Cowboys. Blake Bortles didn't play well in those games. Bortles remains highly inconsistent. He won't have to win this game, though, because the Jaguars' defense will dominate. Bortles will be able to pick his spots against a weak secondary and with an underrated receiving corps. The Texans are very poorly coached. They could be 0-6 instead of 3-3. In the last three weeks, they've beaten the Colts in overtime on a bad coaching decision by Indy, nipped the Cowboys at home in overtime and were tied 13-13 with the Bills at home until getting an interception return for a touchdown against backup Nathan Peterman with 1:23 left to pull out that game. Houston is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games. That's a clear indication about the coaching ability of Bill O'Brien. | |||||||
10-20-18 | Rockets -3 v. Lakers | 124-115 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
The Lakers aren't ready at this early juncture of the LeBron James LA era to beat the Rockets. This is just the Lakers' second game with James. They lost their opener, 128-119, to Portland. Houston is far better than the Trail Blazers. The Rockets had the best record in the NBA last season at 65-17 and return their key players, including James Harden and Chris Paul. The Rockets are in an angry mood, too, after being embarrassed in their opener. They lost 131-112 to Pelicans at home on Wednesday. The Rockets let the Pelicans shoot 53 percent from the floor and were lethargic. Expect a lot more energy from the Rockets in this nationally televised matchup. The Rockets have beaten the Lakers seven of the past nine times in LA. | |||||||
10-20-18 | Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
Kentucky is going through heady times right now ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in more than 10 years in football. This has made the Wildcats overvalued in this rivalry matchup. Kentucky is at its worst in a favorite's role failing to cover the past eight times during the last two seasons. Vanderbilt can play. Just ask Notre Dame, which is ranked higher than Kentucky. The Commodores lost to the Irish, 22-17. Vanderbilt has excellent skill position players with quarterback Kyle Shurmur, running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn and wide receiver Kalija Lipscomb. I'm not a fan of Kentucky quarterback Terry Wilson. The Wildcats rely heavily on running back Benny Snell Jr. They are a one-dimensional team that the Commodores can handle. | |||||||
10-20-18 | North Texas v. UAB UNDER 55 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
North Texas has gone Under in all seven games this season. I'm going to ride that streak. Only once all season have the Mean Green allowed more than 24 points and that was 29 to Louisiana Tech. UAB is a strong Under team, too, going below the total in 13 of its last 16 games. UAB has held opponents to just 14 points in three of its past four victories. The Blazers rank in the top-six in the country both in fewest yards allowed and fewest points given up. | |||||||
10-20-18 | Penn State v. Indiana UNDER 60 | 33-28 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
There are some talented skill position players involved in this matchup. But both defenses are decent and weather is going to factor heavily. The forecast in Bloomington this weekend is for winds in the 20-40 miles per hour range. Wind more than anything other weather element is the key for an Under. Penn State's offense went against Michigan State and Ohio State in its last two games and managed to average only 21.5 points against those quality opponents. Indiana's offense has cooled off since entering Big Ten play. The Hooisers have failed to score more than 26 points in any of their last four games. | |||||||
10-20-18 | Akron v. Kent State UNDER 52 | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 30 h 57 m | Show | |
Two struggling offenses meet in this matchup. Both team's have better defenses than offenses. Akron quarterback Kato Nelson is having a difficult time. The Zips have scored just 36 points during their last three games. They rank 125th in total yards. Kent ranks 115th in scoring. The Golden Flashes have broken the 24-point barrier only twice in seven games. They are averaging 16.6 points in their last five games. | |||||||
10-20-18 | Oklahoma -7.5 v. TCU | 52-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show | |
Banged-up physically and mentally, TCU isn't going to be able to stay within double digits of Oklahoma. The teams met twice last season and Oklahoma won by 18 points and 34 points, respectively. The Horned Frogs are worse this season. If it weren't for a close win against Iowa State, TCU would be 0-4 in its last four games. TCU quarterback Shawn Robinson has been plagued by turnovers. TCU has failed to break the 17-point barrier in each of its last three games. Oklahoma is primed for a strong defensive effort being idle last week after losing to Texas two weeks ago. Oklahoma has won 19 of its last 21 Big 12 road contests and is 6-0 ATS in this spot since Lincoln Riley took over. Kyler Murray can't be held in check by TCU. | |||||||
10-19-18 | Warriors -128 v. Jazz | 124-123 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
Golden State can beat any team even if not highly motivated. A motivated Golden State team can bury any opponent. Maybe this is a trap. If it is than I am ensnared. Because I don't see the Warriors losing here. The Jazz destroyed the Warriors, 119-79, during the final game of the regular season last year. The Warriors were resting starters since playoff seending already had been locked up for them. But a 40-point loss still is a bad memory and it came at Salt Lake City. This time around the Jazz are going to see all of Golden State's stars. The Warriors weren't that sharp in dispatching Oklahoma City opening night. But Utah wasn't good either in its opener defeating Sacramento, 123-117, on the road. The Jazz allowed the Kings to shoot 51.6 percent. Sacramento could be the worst team in the Western Conference. | |||||||
10-19-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +106 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 106 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
I like the price and I certainly like the Brewers chances of winning this Game 6 of the NLCS to stay alive in the series. Milwaukee went 51-30 at Miller Park during the regular season. The pitching matchup pits Hyun-Jin Ryu versus Wade Miley. Ryu historically has been far less effective away from home. The Dodgers are 2-11 (15 percent) the last 13 times Ryu has pitched against an above .500 opponent on the road. The Brewers saw Ryu in Game 2 at home and got to him for two runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings. Miley started for Milwaukee in that Game 2 home victory and held LA to just two hits in 5 2/3 innings. The Brewers have three dominant relief pitchers - Josh Hader, Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress. All are rested. | |||||||
10-19-18 | Cavs +8.5 v. Wolves | 123-131 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are anxious to prove they aren't a hopeless team without LeBron James. They have a great chance of proving that against the chemistry-challenged Timberwolves. Minnesota looked terrible in preseason giving up more than 123 points per game. The team continues to be distracted by Jimmy Butler wanting out. Butler didn't play in preseason while awaiting a trade that so far hasn't happened. Butler played for the first time in the Timberwolves' opener, a loss to the Spurs, and was noticeably rusty shooting 9-of-23 from the floor. His stamina still isn't there yet. The Cavaliers opened with a 116-104 loss to the Raptors on the road this past Wednesday. Kevin Love is being counted on to be Cleveland's No. 1 scoring option now and he was pressing missing 13 of 18 shots from the floor. He should be more settled down in this game. A plus in that loss for the Cavaliers was the play of small forward Cedi Osman, who scored 17 points and pulled down 10 rebounds. | |||||||
10-18-18 | Stanford -130 v. Arizona State | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
Stanford opened with four wins in a row. Then the Cardinal lost two in a row and everybody seems down on them. I'm not especially since they have Bryce Love back from his ankle injury. The Cardinal losses came on the road to Notre Dame and to Utah when Love didn't play. Notre Dame is ranked fourth in the country. Utah has the best defense in the Pac-12. When healthy, Love is the best running back in the country. He was a monster when Stanford beat Arizona State, 34-24, last season rushing for 301 yards and three touchdowns. Stanford has a strong offensive line that can open holes for Love against a Sun Devils defense giving up 227.3 rushing yards in their last four games. Stanford has a coaching edge with David Shaw against Herm Edwards. This advantage is magnified with both teams coming off a bye. The Cardinal have defeated the Sun Devils in five of the past six meetings. Stanford also has covered 14 of the last 18 times following a bye. | |||||||
10-18-18 | Coyotes +130 v. Blackhawks | 4-1 | Win | 130 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
Defense matters. It's one factor why I like the Coyotes to upset the Blackhawks. Chicago has played five games. All five have gone into overtime. Arizona is a top-five defensive team. Yet the Coyotes are 1-4 because they've had problems putting the puck in the net. Their latest loss was 2-1 to the Wild at Minnesota on Tuesday. The Coyotes, though, had 32 shots on goal in that loss. They rank fourth in the NHL in shots per goal. So it's just a matter of time before the Coyotes get goals. I believe that time will come in this game. The Blackhawks have the second-worst defense in the NHL permitting 4.2 goals per game. Corey Crawford is set to make his season debut. Crawford figures to be rusty. He hasn't started in net since last December. Chicago also hasn't played since Saturday. That's too long to go between games. | |||||||
10-17-18 | Nuggets v. Clippers +1.5 | Top | 107-98 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
The Clippers are below the radar now that they have no stars left. But what the Clippers have going for them is a chip on their shoulder, strong perimeter defenders and more scoring in the middle. Denver has serious playoff aspirations. The Nuggets couldn't have come closer to making the playoffs last season. But the Nuggets have yet to prove they are improved defensively and can play better on the road. The Nuggets were 15-26 away from Pepsi Center and were last in defensive field goal percentage. The Clippers no longer have DeAndre Jordan, Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. What the Clippers do have are lockdown defenders Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley and Luc Mbah a Moute. They also have some underrated scorers in Lou Williams, Tobias Harris and Danilo Gallinari. LA also is going to get more scoring inside with Marcin Gortat replacing the departed Jordan, whose shooting range was about one foot. | |||||||
10-17-18 | Bruins -100 v. Flames | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm going to ride the Bruins at this price. Boston has won four in a row averaging 5.5 goals a game during its win streak. No line in the NHL has been playing better than Boston's No. 1 line of Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand. The Flames have a below average defense and have broken the three-goal barrier just once in their first five games. Calgary has not enjoyed much of a home ice advantage either losing 13 of its last 19 at Saddledome. The Flames also have dropped four of their last five versus the Bruins. | |||||||
10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
The Celtics have dominated the 76ers winning 14 of the last 16 regular-season games. Philadelphia has gotten a lot better, but so has Boston. The teams met in the Eastern Conference semifinals and the Celtics won the series in five games. Boston won that series despite not having Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, both of whom are healthy now for the Celtics. Part of why the Celtics have had success against the 76ers is they have the depth and defenders to match up against Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons with Al Horford, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Aron Baynes and Marcus Morris. The 76ers have an excellent starting lineup, but they lack Boston's bench strength and rely heavily on Embiid and Simmons. The Celtics have the deepest roster in the Eastern Conference and the best coach, Brad Stevens. Philadelphia played its last two preseason games in China on Oct. 5 and Oct. 8. So you wonder if the 76ers have recovered fully from that long journey. The Celtics enter this season having covered 73 percent of their last 19 home games. | |||||||
10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers -9.5 | Top | 30-33 | Loss | -105 | 86 h 0 m | Show |
This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are off a bad road loss to the Lions. Green Bay is frustrated. The Packers have a bye the following week so they are going to hold nothing back in front of national TV audience at home. There will be a strong sense of urgency for the Packers in this matchup, something that has been lacking from them. They need to keep pace in the competitive NFC North Division and will not come out flat. The 49ers play hard for Kyle Shanahan, but their defense has many holes and their offense is shot without Jimmy Garoppolo and multiple injuries at running back, wide receiver and in the offensive line. The Packers have a good defensive line and their secondary is much improved. C.J. Beathard doesn't have nearly the talent to keep trading points with Aaron Rodgers. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 148 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a monster revenge spot for the Patriots. They were stunned by the Chiefs at home opening week of last season. The Patriots won't be taken by surprise this time by the Chiefs. New England has a better defense than Kansas City. The Patriots' offense also has come around with Julian Edelman back from suspension and Josh Gordon starting to make an impact. The Patriots are on extra rest, too, having played last Thursday. New England has covered 71 percent of its last 51 home games. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Astros v. Red Sox +115 | 5-7 | Win | 115 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
This isn't a fade on the Astros. It's a play on Boston. I'm not going to pass up taking a price with the Red Sox at home. The pitching matchup is Gerrit Cole versus David Price. There are two ways of looking at this. The first is the negative view of Price being 0-9 with a 6.03 ERA in 10 postseason starts. That mark has tarnished his legacy. But I choose the positive view of Price having dominated the Astros in his three years with the Red Sox. Those numbers show Price to have a 2.43 ERA and holding Houston to a .205 batting average across 33 1/3 innings, including working 6 2/3 scoreless relief innings versus Houston in last year's Division Series. Red Sox manager Alex Cora was a bench coach for the Astros last season. He wouldn't give the ball to Price in this crucial game if he thought he couldn't get the job done. Boston is 20-6 in Price's past 26 starts at Fenway Park. Augmenting the Red Sox argument is Cole's poor sampling at Fenway Park where he's 0-1 with a 5.73 ERA in two starts. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 141 h 23 m | Show | |
At 1-4, the Falcons are playing for their season. They absolutely can not take a home loss here to the lowly Buccaneers, who when last spotted were losing 48-10 to the Bears on the road. Injuries have ruined the Falcons' defense. But they still have the offense to pile up big points, especially going against a terrible Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom-two in yards and points given up per game. Matt Ryan is playing at a high level despite the Falcons' disappointing record. He has thrown nine touchdown passes in the last three weeks with no interceptions. Devonta Freeman is back healthy and rookie Calvin Ridley has emerged to be another huge receiving threat to go with Julio Jones. Jameis Winston is back at quarterback for the Bucs. Winston doesn't have a ground attack, though, and has turned the ball over more than any other NFC quarterback during the last three years. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Steelers +2 v. Bengals | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
There is a perception that the Steelers aren't very good on the road. That's not true. Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 in its eight road matchups. The Steelers are starting to come on, too, especially their defense, which has underperformed. I'm usually attracted to the better team in an underdog role, which is the case here. Ben Roethlisberger is a far superior quarterback to Andy Dalton and he has the more potent weapons. The Bengals and Dalton have been playing above their heads. Dalton still turns the ball over. He has seven interceptions and will be without his top red zone target, tight end, Tyler Eifert, and reliable backup running back Giovanni Bernard. Emerging second-year wideout John Ross may still also be out. Pittsburgh has owned the Bengals recently winning the past six times and eight of the last nine meetings. This includes four consecutive victories at Paul Brown Stadium. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Colts +2.5 v. Jets | 34-42 | Loss | -109 | 49 h 14 m | Show | |
The Colts are getting back a number of their key injured players. The Jets are in a flat spot. Andrew Luck trumps Sam Darnold and the Jets offense. That in a nutshell is why I like the underdog Colts. Indy is in must-win mode being 1-4. The Colts have been in each game, though, and actually could be 3-2 with better circumstances. The teams last met two seasons ago and Luck lit the Jets up throwing four touchdown passes in a 41-10 victory. Luck is close to being 100 percent again throwing for 829 yards and seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. The Colts are on extra rest having played last Thursday. Star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton still is likely out, but the Colts are expected to get back from injury star linebacker Darius Leonard, Anthony Walker Jr.,who is their second-best linebacker, top running back, Marlon Mack, and offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo. Luck could catch a big break as the Jets' secondary could be down star cornerback Trumaine Johnson (quad injury) and cornerback Buster Skrine (concussion). The Jets are in letdown territory after their impressive 34-16 dismantling of the Broncos this past Sunday. The Jets' other victory came opening week versus the Lions. The Jets then went flat the following week losing to the Dolphins, 20-12, as three-point home favorites. Some of the Jets' attention could be focused on their defensive coordinator, Kacy Rodgers, who is fighting a serious illness and may miss a second consecutive game. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Raiders | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 49 h 12 m | Show | |
Derek Carr isn't coming through for Jon Gruden and Gruden isn't coming through for the Raiders. If it wasn't for a bizarre replay reversal that took the game away from the road Browns two weeks ago, the Raiders would be winless. They have lost by eight, 16 and 20 points in three of their four defeats. Carr has the most interceptions in the NFL with eight. The Raiders have failed to break the 21-point barrier in all but one of their last 10 games. Their defense lacks speed and playmakers ranking 30th in total yards and defensive scoring while accumulating only six sacks in five games. The Seahawks, by contrast, are showing life. They nearly dealt the Rams their first loss, losing 33-31 last Sunday. The Seahawks have gotten healthier on defense and their ground attack has become revitalized averaging 180 yards rushing the past two games. Oakland has given up at least 140 yards rushing in three of its past five games. Russell Wilson gives Seattle a monster edge at quarterback. Wilson will be highly effective in play-action now that the Seahawks have their ground attack energized. Note this game is in London. That's a factor that favors the Seahawks. Seattle is 2-3 and still has playoff hopes. So this becomes a near must-win spot. The Seahawks are motivated. The Raiders aren't likely to travel well. They are demoralized and lack confidence knowing their talent is below average. This is turning into a lost season for the 1-4 Raiders. Gruden has lost much of his coaching mystique. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Wisconsin +10 v. Michigan | Top | 13-38 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Jim Harbaugh has yet to prove he can really win a big game at Michigan. Wisconsin has lost by more than seven points only once it its last 26 road/neutral site games and that was to Alabama. So I'm taking the points. The Badgers have the better offensive line and arguably the best running back in college, Jonathan Taylor. The key is Badgers quarterback Alex Hornibrook. He has been a steady force and actually has a strong 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception road ratio. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals -115 | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
The Maple Leafs just may be ready to be a legitimate Stanley Cup contender this season. But this is the wrong spot for them. It's Toronto's fourth road game in seven days. The Maple Leafs also are catching the Capitals off an embarrassing 6-0 road loss to the Devils on Thursday. Before that loss, the defending Stanley Cup champions had just beaten Las Vegas, 5-2, at home on Wednesday in an emotional matchup of last season's Cup finalists. The Capitals were averaging six goals a game during their first three games until their flat spot loss to the Devils. Toronto is 1-5 in its last six games versus Washington. Maybe the Maple Leafs are ready to overtake the Capitals when they play in Toronto, but not on the road carrying a fatigue rating and drawing what is sure to be a fired-up Capitals group. | |||||||
10-13-18 | New Mexico v. Colorado State -110 | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
This line is off. New Mexico was plus nine at UNLV last week. Now the line is around pick with the Lobos at Colorado State. I don't see it. I understand Colorado State has underachieved so far this season. But the Rams still average nearly 300 passing yards a game and their ground game picked up last week. The Lobos give up more than 33 points a game and rank 107th in total defense. Colorado State also has defeated New Mexico eight consecutive times, including 27-24 on the road last season. The Lobos have failed to cover during each of their last five trips to Colorado State. Don't expect the Rams not to be focused, though. They can't afford a home loss here with a road trip against Boise State looming next week if they want to make a bowl game. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Baylor +14.5 v. Texas | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show | |
Baylor has the ability to control clock and is good enough to take advantage of this flat spot to hang in against Texas. The Longhorns have won five in a row and are coming off a dramatic upset of Oklahoma last week. That's a huge rivalry game so the Longhorns' intensity figures to be down this week. They could take Baylor lightly knowing the Bears were beaten by Oklahoma, 66-33. That's been a pattern of Texas this season playing to the level of its competition. The Longhorns failed to cover a 22-point spread against Tulsa winning by only seven points and they didn't cover against Kansas State the week before meeting Oklahoma, winning 19-14 as 8 1/2-point favorites. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Pittsburgh +22 v. Notre Dame | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh has casued Notre Dame problems in the past and is in a position to do it again. The Panthers have their confidence up after ending a two-game losing streak by defeating Syracuse, 44-37, in overtime last week. The Orange nearly had beaten Clemson the week before. The Panthers have athletes. They shouldn't be outclassed especially considering the spot Notre Dame is in. The Irish are coming off emotional victories against ranked opponents Stanford and Virginia Tech. The Irish are idle next week and also facing mid-term exams. So their focus may not be all there. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has been a disappointment for Pittsburgh. However, the Panthers have two solid runners, Quadree Ollison and Darrin Hall, to help maintain ball control. The two rushed for a combined 299 yards against Syracuse. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Southern Miss v. North Texas UNDER 55.5 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 6 m | Show | |
Southern Mississippi is much improved defensively yielding fewer than 19 points per game and ranking eighth in total yards. North Texas has cooled off failing to break the 27-point barrier in its last two games, including scoring just 27 points against UTEP in its last game. The Miners have one of the worst defenses in the country. But a big key to the Under here is weather. The forecast is 100 percent chance rain with winds in the 10 to 20 miles per hour range. Heavy rain and wind could force a lot more running plays. Neither team runs the ball well. The Golden Eagles rank 119th in the nation in rushing, while North Texas rates 87th. Southern Mississippi also might be without its second-best wide receiver as Jaylond Adams is questionable with a leg injury. | |||||||
10-12-18 | Arizona +13.5 v. Utah | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
Utah was impressive in knocking off Stanford on the road last week. But that victory has made the Utes overpriced in this matchup against Arizona, which has come on to win and cover three of its last four games after opening 0-2 under its new coach, Kevin Sumlin. Sumlin attempt to turn Khalil Tate into more passer than runner has drawn a lot of attention. What has been going under the radar is Arizona's defense, which is giving up 18.3 points per game during its first three Pac-12 Conference games. Utah leads the Pac-12 in total defense and is No. 2 in scoring defense. Tate has had half the season to get comfortable as a dual threat. He has thrown 11 touchdown passes, but his rushing yards are way down. The Utes, though, still have to respect his legs along with those of J.J. Taylor, who is the third-leading rusher in the Pac-12. The Wildcats are the No. 3 rushing team in the Pac-12. They can hang with Utah. The Utes have covered only once the past five times hosting Arizona. | |||||||
10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
The Brewers have won 11 straight games. They would be 26-4 in their last 30 games if plus 1 1/2 runs. Yet they are mid-sized home underdogs because the starting pitching matchup is Clayton Kershaw versus Gio Gonzalez and there's a perception the Brewers aren't in the Dodgers class. They are. The Brewers finished four games better than the Dodgers this season. Kershaw isn't the monster in the playoffs he is during the regular season with a postseason career ERA above 4.00. It's a large sampling, too - 130 innings. Gonzalez is in excellent form and has a strong history versus the Dodgers. He's 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 0.87 WHIP during his last three starts spanning 15 innings. Lifetime against the Dodgers, Gonzalez is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 38 innings. The Brewers have the superior bullpen. So Gonzalez probably won't be asked to go more than five innings. He can go all out in those innings. The oddsmaker is anticipating a 4-3 type of game with this low total. So getting 1 1/2 runs should loom huge. | |||||||
10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 62 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 44 h 31 m | Show |
TCU is fortunate not to have a three-game losing streak having nipped Iowa State in its last game on a field goal with 37 seconds left. The problem for the Horned Frogs, who were ranked 14th three weeks ago, is not their defense. That's still first-rate. It's struggling quarterback Shawn Robinson and an offense that managed just 16 points against Texas and 17 versus Iowa State in TCU's past two games. Robinson has a 4-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. He has failed to pass for more than 200 yards in all but one of TCU's five games this season. Darius Anderson, TCU's top running back, isn't helping either averaging 2.3 yards per carry in his last two games on 24 carries. Texas Tech has a middle-of-the-road run defense. The Red Raiders can handle TCU's offense right now especially given Robinson's lackluster performances. I also see TCU keeping Texas Tech's powerful offense in check just like last season when the Horned Frogs beat the Red Raiders in Lubbock, 27-3. TCU has the second-best scoring defense in the Big 12 yielding 20.8 points per game. The Horned Frogs also rank 12th in the country in fewest yards allowed per game. | |||||||
10-11-18 | Avalanche -108 v. Sabres | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Buffalo won just 11 home games last season, fewest in the NHL. The Sabres, though, are trying to make it three consecutive home wins today against Colorado off victories against the Rangers on Saturday and Las Vegas on Monday. I don't see the Sabres getting it. Colorado is the better team and won't lack motivation after skating poorly in a 5-2 loss to Columbus on Tuesday. The Avalanche are likely to have defenseman Patrik Nemeth back along with center Vladislav Kamenev making his season debut. The Avalanche had backup Philipp Grubauer in net against the Blue Jackets. Semyon Varlamov is expected to be back in goal for Colorado today. He has a strong history against the Sabres with a 6-2-1 record and 2.46 goals-against average in nine starts. Carter Hutton has started all three of Buffalo's games. Hutton has stopped 78 of 81 shots in the last two games. But I consider him more backup quality than starter. Colorado has defeated Buffalo in 12 of the past 15 meetings, including going 6-2 the past eight times in Buffalo. | |||||||
10-10-18 | Coyotes +145 v. Ducks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 145 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
Anaheim is flying high at 3-0. One of those victories was against Arizona. The Ducks beat the Coyotes, 1-0, this past Saturday in Phoenix. The Coyotes, though, outshot the Ducks, 41-20. Tremendous goalie play from John Gibson saved the Ducks. Gibson is hot. But the Ducks are due for a loss. They've been getting away with playing five rookie forwards due to injuries and nearly lost to the Red Wings at home in their last game prevailing in a shootout this past Monday. The Coyotes should have won the first meeting between the teams. This is short revenge for them. Their goalie, Antti Raanta, has a good history against Anaheim with a 1.66 goals-against average and a .932 save percentage in six starts. | |||||||
10-09-18 | Sharks -105 v. Flyers | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
I want the better team going for me off a loss and at a very reasonable price. Yes, the Sharks are going through an adjustment period with new talent. But so are the Flyers, who just switched up their first and second lines only two games into the season. Philadelphia already has suffered a key injury with James van Riemsdyk out five-to-six weeks with a lower body injury suffered in a road loss to the Avalanche this past Saturday. The Sharks aren't going to lack motivation after an embarrassing 4-0 road loss to the Islanders on Monday. This is a back-to-back game for them, but it's so early in the season that fatigue won't factor. This is Philadelphia's first home game. That could prove a distraction, though, as the Flyers opened their season posting an upset road win against Las Vegas this past Thursday before losing to Colorado on Saturday. San Jose has dominated the Flyers, too, in Philadelphia winning nine of the past 10 meetings there. | |||||||
10-08-18 | Edmonton +4 v. Saskatchewan | 12-19 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 3 m | Show | |
Edmonton defeated Saskatchewan when they last met, 26-19, at the beginning of August. The Eskimos dealt Calgary one of its two defeats on the season. The Eskimos lost by just three points in their other game against the Stampeders. The Eskimos have the CFL's passing yards leader in Mike Reilly and the receiving yardage leader in Duke Williams. Yet Edmonto finds itself in must-win mode trailing Saskatchewan by two games in the much-tougher West Division. At first it didn't seem like Williams was going to play after he was injured. Now word is he's going to play. Edmonton is off a dreadful 30-3 home loss to the Blue Bombers. But I'm going to buy low here believing the Eskimos get the job done. I like that I have Reilly, one of the best players in the CFL, and apparently Williams, who also leads the league in touchdown catches with 10, going for me. Reilly had his string of 42 consecutive regular season starts where he accounted for a touchdown stopped in the loss to Winnipeg. I expect he'll come back strong. The Roughriders are just 3-3 in their last six home games. They are coming off two straight road wins beating Toronto and Montreal by a combined five points failing to cover in either game. Saskatchewan hasn't covered in three straight games. Edmonton is 7-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games versus West Division foes. The Eskimos also have covered in five of their last seven visits to Saskatchewan. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Texans | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
I consider Bill O'Brien a bottom-five coach. Anytime you have a coach that bad, especially in a favorite's role, the underdog is live. One of O'Brien's many faults is the way his team plays not to lose rather than win. This is reflected in the Texans failing to cover in eight of their last nine games. Their lone cover during this span was last Sunday when the Colts handed them the game by going for a fourth-and-four in overtime and failing to covert. The Texans also are 3-7 ATS the past 10 times when laying points in the regular season. Part of what makes O'Brien such a coaching underachiever is Houston has good talent. However, the Texans also have numerous flaws. DeShaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt have to play super games to cover up the Texans' porous offensive line, lack of a running game, poor tight end play and injury-ravaged secondary. I'm not expecting the Texans to have their No. 1 running back, Lamar Miller, either. The Cowboys aren't fancy. You know what they're going to do, which is feed Ezekiel Elliott, throw short, safe passes and rely on a well-coached defense to hang in. This is a proper game plan and should result in a close game if not an outright Dallas victory. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Cardinals +4.5 v. 49ers | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 147 h 4 m | Show |
No, not without Jimmy Garoppolo can the 49ers lay this many points, especially given their battered condition. San Francisco is 1-11 in their last 12 games when Garoppolo hasn't been its starting quarterback. C.J. Beathard is back behind center with Garoppolo done for the season. The 49ers also are without tailback Jerick McKinnon and maybe their best offensive lineman as Joe Staley was injured this past Sunday. The Cardinals are 0-4, the lone remaining winless team in the NFL. They are desperate for a victory. The 49ers haven't defeated the Cardinals since Jim Harbaugh was their coach. Arizona has improved each week. The Cardinals lost at the gun, 20-17, to the Seahawks this past Sunday and were leading the Bears with under five minutes left two weeks ago before losing, 16-14. The Cardinals are far more competive with rookie Josh Rosen at quarterback rather than timid Sam Bradford. Rosen played a good game against the Seahawks in his first NFL start. He was 15-of-27 for 180 yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. He had completions to seven different receivers. His statistics would have looked better if not for five dropped passes. Rosen faces a 49ers defense that lacks edge pass rushers and has multiple injuries to their secondary. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers -4.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 52 h 27 m | Show | |
The Chargers don't get injured Joey Bosa back yet, but defensive lineman Corey Liuget returns from suspension. That's a big plus for the Chargers' defense. The Chargers' defense is better than it has shown having gone up against the Chiefs and Rams, the two best offenses in the NFL. Certainly the Chargers are going to put up big points on a very bad Raiders defense. Philip Rivers is having another big season with multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. LA is a top-10 scoring and yardage team. The Raiders rank 31st in scoring defense allowing nearly 31 points a game. Oakland is last in sacks and quarterback hits. Rivers is going to have plenty of time in the pocket to pick and choose. Making it worse for the Raiders is a fatigue factor. They wore down in Miami's humidity two weeks ago and last Sunday had to go overtime to beat the Browns at home. Baker Mayfield, making his NFL starting debut, picked the Raiders apart throwing for 295 yards and two touchdowns. That bodes well for Rivers. The Raiders were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns at home. They are a very bad team. Their defense has no playmakers with Khalil Mack gone. The Chargers beat the Raiders, 30-10, when they hosted them last season. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Packers v. Lions +1 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
Take away a miracle comeback against the Bears and the Packers would only have a win against Buffalo. The Packers were soundly whipped by a mediocre Redskins team two weeks ago when they last went on the road. Truth be told, Green Bay just isn't that good. The Packers should be taking points here not laying them, but their reputation precedes them. The Lions can take advantage of a work-in-progress Packers secondary that is starting rookie cornerback Josh Jackson and 35-year-old Tramon Williams with their trio of excellent wideouts. Kerryon Johnson has given the Lions a spark in the run game averaging more than six yards per carry during his last two games. So the Packers will have to respect the run something opponents have not had to do versus the Lions in past seasons. It's a tremendous step up for the Packers secondary and their weak-in-coverage linebackers going from Josh Allen at home to Matthew Stafford on the road inside a dome. Aaron Rodgers isn't likely to keep up. Not only is Rodgers far less than 100 percent, but Green Bay has a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Davonte Adams, Geromino Allison and Randall Cobb are all banged-up. Those are the Packers' three top wideouts. They are backed up by rookies. Cobb definitely is out. The Lions are up-and-down, but they showed what they could do at home when they upset the Patriots in their last game at Ford Field. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 51 | 23-31 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 10 m | Show | |
On paper this should be a shootout with Aaron Rodgers going against Matthew Stafford inside Detroit's fast track dome. The reality is different. Rodgers isn't 100 percent. His mobility and leg drive on his passes aren't the same. Green Bay also has a cluster injury problem at wide receiver. Slot man Randall Cobb is out. Davante Adams and Geromino Allison may not play either. Rodgers is going to have to rely on rookie wide receivers, which he hasn't had much success doing before. Detroit has a key injury on offense - and it's below-the-radar. Guard T.J. Lang suffered a head injury last week. He's the Lions' best offensive lineman. I doubt he plays because of concussion procedures. Kenny Wiggins replaced Lang and got swallowed up by the Cowboys. There is going to be more running than usual between these teams, which will keep the clock going. The Lions are more committed to running the ball this week. The Packers have to protect Rodgers and their inexperienced wide receivers by running a lot, too. The Lions rank last in run defense so the Packers have even more reason to stay on the ground. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | 14-30 | Loss | -117 | 49 h 4 m | Show | |
Many props to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs on their 4-0 record. But is Kansas City going undefeated? Heck no. The Chiefs have major flaws on defense and now they are facing the best defense in the NFL after opening against three sub-par defenses in the Chargers, Steelers and 49ers. Oh, yeah, the Chiefs also are in a terrible situational spot having just won a huge Monday night national TV game against division rival Denver in which they needed a stirring comeback to pull it off coming from 10 points down in the fourth quarter. The Jaguars give up the fewest points per game, yards and passing yards. They have the offense to put up points themselves when Blake Bortles plays well. I envision Bortles playing well against a porous Chiefs defense that is especially vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks such as Bortles. The Chiefs are weak, too, on pass defense and in defending against pass-catching running backs. Leonard Fournette is out for Jacksonville. But T.J. Yeldon is a capable of replacement and a much better receiving threat than Fournette. Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole are one the most underrated receiving tandems in the NFL. The Chiefs have surrendered 20 completions of at least 20 yards, which is the worst in the NFL. This is the right spot to fade the Chiefs in a letdown spot against a foe they do not match up well against. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Wyoming v. Hawaii -3 | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 86 h 8 m | Show | |
Hawaii is better than expected this season especially quarterback Cole McDonald, who has already thrown for more than 2,000 yards and has a mind-boggling 24-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wyoming is bad this season. The Cowboys aren't getting the takeways like they did last season when they led the nation with 38 and they really miss Josh Allen. The Cowboys have failed to break 20-points in their last four games. They have just six takeaways and six sacks in their five games. Hawaii has a big home field advantage. The Rainbow Warriors also have a much superior passing attack and far more team speed. Hawaii won't take Wyoming lightly either after nearly losing to 1-4 San Jose State last week. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Colorado State -130 v. San Jose State | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
This is far more of a fade on San Jose State than an endorsement of Colorado State although I believe the Rams are due to play better starting here. San Jose State is 1-15 dating back to the start of last season. The Spartans are 0-4 this season and coming off a draining five overtime loss to Hawaii. Their defense, which ranks among the bottom-13 in the nation in yards, points and passing yards, is going to wear down fast after being on the field for more than 100 plays last week. Colorado State is a cut above San Jose State even this season. The Rams have won seven or more games in each of the past five seasons. They defeated the Spartans, 42-14, last season outgaining them by nearly 300 yards. While the Spartans are off that five overtime loss, Colorado State was idle. The Rams are rested and ready to turn around their season. They are in a good starting position to do that with this patsy. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Indiana +27 v. Ohio State | 26-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
Indiana is 4-1 and has the quarterback, running back and coaching to take advantage of a huge flat spot here for Ohio State. The Buckeyes pulled out a dramatic road victory against Penn State last week. The Buckeyes will be heavy favorites in their next three games , too, taking on Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska following this game. So a letdown definitely is in store for the Buckeyes as they return home having staved off a major challenge by the upstart Nittany Lions. Indiana has covered in six of its last seven meetings with Ohio State. Peyton Ramsey leads the Big Ten in completion percentage and Stevie Scott is the fourth leading rusher in the Big Ten. Scott averages 6.8 yards per carry. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Oilers v. Devils UNDER 6 | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
It's easy to see why the oddsmaker put out a total this high when Connor McDavid and Taylor Hall are playing. But there are key circumstances to this matchup that point to an Under. This game is being played in Gothenberg, Sweden. It's part of the NHL Global Series. It is the season-opener for both teams. Edmonton last played a preseason game on Wednesday - and that was in Germany. New Jersey's last preseason game was back on Monday. So these teams figure to be rusty and out of sync. I'm expecting a sloppy game without crisp passing and stickhandling. That should favor the defense. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 52.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
I'm surprised to see a total this high when Central Michigan is involved. The Chippewas rank last in the nation in total yards and second-to-last in scoring averaging 16 points a game. Buffalo has an above average defense ranking among the top 60 in fewest yards and points allowed. Central Michigan's puny attack should be easy for the Bulls to put down. The under has won in 10 of Buffalo's last 13 road games, too. Central Michigan has a far more respectable defense ranking sixth in pass defense and 26th in yards per play. Buffalo has a below average offensive line and running attack. So the Bulls will have to attack Central Michigan's strength. There's a chance of rain in this matchup also, which would be a plus for the under. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Tulane v. Cincinnati -7 | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Unbeaten Cincinnati has designs on making the Top-25. The Bearcats are yielding the second-fewest points in the nation at 12.2 and their offense is coming on behind quarterback Desmond Rider and running back Michael Warren. I don't see visting Tulane slowing down the Bearcats. Tulane gives up nearly 30 points a game and ranks 108th in yards allowed. Cincinnati is averaging more than 600 yards of total offense during its past three games. The Green Wave have covered only of their last seven road games and are in a letdown spot after ending an 11-game losing streak to Memphis by upsetting the Tigers last week as 14 1/2-point home 'dogs. | |||||||
10-05-18 | Indians +136 v. Astros | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
It's wrong to disrespect the Indians especially with Corey Kluber on the mound. But that's what oddsmaker have done by opening the Astros this big of a favorite. Kluber had another huge season going 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA. He was 1-0 with a 1.35 ERA in two starts versus the Astros this season. Cleveland has won 70 percent of Kluber's last 23 road starts. A big factor why the Astros opened as such a big favorite in this Game 1 is Justin Verlander. He had an excellent season, too, going 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA. The Astros won all five of Verlander's September starts. He surrendered just four earned runs in 33 innings during September for a 1.09 ERA. However, Verlander was bad in August with a 5.29 ERA in six starts. None of the teams he pitched against in September - Twins, Tigers, Diamondbacks, Angels and Orioles - made the postseason. All had losing records except the 82-80 Diamondbacks. Verlander also has a better road mark where he went 12-2 with a 2.14 ERA compared to 4-7 at home with a 2.84 ERA. Verlander doesn't have a good history against the Indians either. He is 20-24 against them lifetime with a 4.71 ERA. | |||||||
10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 80 h 49 m | Show |
The Patriots have their swagger back after rolling past previously unbeaten Miami, 38-7, this past Sunday. It was an easy victory for New England. The Colts, though, are mentally and physically gassed after playing a full overtime and losing in heartbreak fashion to the Texans, 37-34, on Sunday. Indy's defense has played better than expected, but it is below average and wearing down. The Colts defense faced 77 plays against the Eagles two weeks ago and 84 plays on Thursday. Now the Colts have to travel on a short week to New England. It's a huge disadvantage. The Patriots may not have Rob Gronkowski , but they get back Julian Edelman from suspension. Josh Gordon should be at full speed, too. Tom Brady has the weapons to pile up points against the weary Colts even if Gronk doesn't play. The Colts need a full effort to be competitive because they lack the overall talent and experience being one of the youngest teams in the league. The Colts have a new coaching staff that still is trying to figure things out. An ill-advised fourth-and-four call from their own 44-yard line with 27 seconds left in overtime failed allowing the Texans to pull out the victory in what should have finished as a tie game. That could linger mentally with the Colts. Andrew Luck is working his way back from serious shoulder injury. Most of his passes are short. Luck has no ground attack, a porous offensive line that was without both starting tackles against the Texans and isn't expected to have his best wide receiver by far, T.Y. Hilton, nor his top tight end, Jack Doyle. The Patriots are 6-0 against the Colts since Peyton Manning left Indy. They are averaging 42.3 points against the Colts during this time span. Luck doesn't have the arm, weapons and protection time to keep pace with Brady. | |||||||
10-04-18 | Bruins -125 v. Sabres | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
The Bruins were 50 points better than the Sabres last season. Boston has beaten the Sabres in seven of its last eight visits to Buffalo. The Bruins should do it again here especially off an embarrassing 7-0 humiliating opening loss to Washington on Wednesday. Bruins coach Bruce Cassidy ripped his team with full justification saying they lacked competitive spirit. The Bruins' top line of David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand all had horrible games. They are one of the best lines in hockey. Expect the Bruins to be far more fired-up and to play a lot better in this game. The Sabres haven't reached the playoffs during the last seven years. Buffalo has lost 37 of its last 53 home games. | |||||||
10-03-18 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | 2-3 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Despite high totals like this one, the Maple Leafs still are a strong Over team going 18-7-2 to the Over in their last 27 games heading into this season's opener. Expect more high-scoring games involving the Maple Leafs. Toronto's top-five offense of last season is even more potent with the addition of John Tavares. Toronto could easily exceed it's 3.3 goals per game average of last season. What makes Toronto such a great Over team is its defense remains a work in progress with a lot of youth. The Canadiens can take advantage because they have gotten faster and are switching to a more up-tempo style. The Canadiens are weak defensively. Their best defenseman. Shea Weber, is out indefinitely. Carey Price had a horrible season last year in goal. He's handicapped by a bad defense and his confidence could be lacking. | |||||||
10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs -131 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -131 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
I like the Cubs for a number of reasons here and the price is low enough to back them. Both the Cubs and Rockies each lost Monday forcing this one-game Wild-card game. Chicago, though, lost hosting the Brewers. The Rockies fell to the Dodgers in LA so they have had to make a long trip. The Cubs are far more experienced in big games. It was just two years ago when the Cubs won the World Series. The Rockies were one and done in the postseason last year losing a wildcard game to the Diamondbacks on the road. Previous to that the Rockies had not played in the postseason since 2009. I also like the pitching matchup for the Cubs with Kyle Freeland opposing Jon Lester. Freeland has been brilliant this season. Surprisingly, though, he put up better numbers at Coors Field than in his road games. His away ERA is 3.23. Freeland is pitching on short rest, too, having last pitched three days ago. He has a 4.15 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in two career starts. Lester is in great form and has an excellent postseason history. He is 3-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his past three starts this season. Lester has made five career starts against Colorado and posted a 2.25 ERA. The Cubs have won 74 percent of Lester's past 51 home starts. | |||||||
10-01-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Nothing against German Marquez and Walker Buehler, but I see more than seven runs being scored in this game. Both teams are swinging hot bats. The Rockies have scored 58 runs in their last seven games for an average of 8.2 runs per game. The Dodgers have scored seven or more runs in five of their last eight games. They have scored 25 runs during this past two games. Marquez and Buehler have been pitching well, but both are young and inexperienced when it comes to huge games such as this one. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers -3 | 26-14 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a tremendous rivalry with a history of close games. Only six times in the last 23 meetings has one team won by more than seven points. However, I'm not anticipating a close game here, clearly siding with Pittsburgh. The Steelers have won the past three get togethers with the Ravens with their average win margin being 7.3 points. Ben Roethlisberger is a top-five caliber quarterback when playing at home. He doesn't have Le'Veon Bell, but he does have Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, who is becoming an elite receiver. The Ravens defense can't stay with these two wideouts minus still suspended Jimmy Smith. A.J. Green exploited smallish Ravens cornerback Tavon Young scoring two touchdowns off him in Week 2. Brown and Smith-Schuster can do the same. The Ravens have one of the least efficient run offenses. The Steelers entered this week tied with the Cowboys for the second-most sacks with 11. I'm not a fan of Joe Flacco especially without a ground attack and being on hostile ground against a proficient pass rush unit. | |||||||
09-30-18 | 49ers v. Chargers OVER 47 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 144 h 40 m | Show |
Philip Rivers is having another strong season and has the weapons to dismantle a 49ers secondary that has a cluster injury problem with a number of players out, including Richard Sherman. The Chargers' defense isn't nearly as strong without pass rushing star Joey Bosa, who is not expected back for another few weeks. The 49ers will miss Jimmy Garappolo, but C.J. Beathard is a capable backup and will have an entire week to prepare. The 49ers have underrated skill position players, including running back Matt Breida. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is a master offensive coach. The 49ers will contribute their fair of points here and Rivers will shred San Francisco's vulnerable and battered secondary. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 136 h 51 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are a surprising 3-0. The Patriots have lost two in a row both on the road against the Jaguars and Lions. When was the last time the Patriots lost three straight regular season games under Bill Belichick? Try like never. Actually it occurred - back in 2002! I want the Patriots and Tom Brady going for me after they laid an egg on national television against Detroit Sunday night in a miserable performance. So I'm locking in now believing the line will become higher toward kickoff. Miami certainly deserves credit for its fast start. Ryan Tannehill is a huge improvement on Jay Cutler. Tannehill, though, is not an elite quarterback and Miami's overall talent is well below average. The Dolphins have hosted the Titans, whose quarterback Marcus Mariota wasn't 100 percent during the game, beat the Jets on the road when New York was on a short week following a huge road upset win against the Lions on a Monday night and took care of business this past Sunday versus the winless Raiders. The Dolphins are a bogus 3-0 team in search of a loss. It will come here. The Patriots have yet to get their offense fully going. That should change against this opponent and with Josh Gordon having had two weeks with the team. Gordon will provide a much needed outside threat that will allow better spacing for Rob Gronkowski. New England should get several key injured players back on defense. The Patriots have owned Miami in Foxboro winning the past nine times there, while going 7-2 ATS. They have won and covered the past five times. The matchup, spot and history all clearly point New England. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bucs v. Bears -3 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 63 h 43 m | Show | |
Ryan Fitzpatrick has had his moments in the sun. This won't be one of them. Not only have the Bears become an upper echelon defense with the addition of Khalil Mack, but they use a 3-4 alignment. Tampa Bay had not faced that type of defense until this past Monday when they hosted the Steelers. Fitzpatrick was under pressure on nearly half of his pass attempts. His passer rating for that game was 81.3 compared to 156.3 and 144.4 in his previous two starts. Fitzpatrick is a journeyman who doesn't have a ground game to fall back on. The Buccaneers rank 30th in rushing. I don't see Tampa Bay's offense doing much against the Bears. The spot is very bad, too, for the Buccaneers traveling on a short week after an exhausting Monday night effort when they rallied from a 30-10 deficit to lose 30-27. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in-progress, but he has an outstanding runner, Jordan Howard, and several reliable receivers, including Allen Robinson and Trey Burton. Trubisky also is operating against one of the worst defenses in the NFL and one that has a cluster injury problem in the secondary. The Buccaneers rate last in pass defense, second-to-last in yards allowed and 29th in scoring defense yielding 30.3 points a game. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Lions v. Cowboys -2.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -130 | 63 h 42 m | Show | |
The Lions are coming off a highly impressive nationally televised home win against the Patriots. I don't trust them to follow through on the road with another good performance. Dallas has one of the league's top defenses. One reason for this is coaching. I like the Dallas coaching staff to outwit talented but sometimes mistake-prone Matthew Stafford. The Cowboys have the pass rushers to bother Stafford. Dallas gives up fewer than 18 points per game and ranks third in fewest yards given up. The Cowboys defense is especially tough in the red zone, which is where the Lions can struggle. The problem for Dallas is offense. However, Ezekiel Elliott should be able to run on Detroit, which in turn will set up Dak Prescott. The Lions' linebackers are weak in coverage so Prescott should have success with his short passing style. This is an important game for the 1-2 Cowboys as two of their next three games are on the road with the home matchup during this span coming against the Jaguars. The Lions have a far bigger game on deck hosting the Packers next week. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bills v. Packers -9 | 0-22 | Win | 100 | 63 h 41 m | Show | |
No, not two weeks in a row. Not even close. The Bills don't have nearly the talent, nor the quarterback, to pull off back-to-back monster upsets after stunning the Vikings, 27-6, last Sunday. Buffalo had a couple of things going its way when it ambushed the Vikings in the biggest upset in 23 years: a strong pass rush facing a subpar offensive line and the element of surprise. The Packers have one of the best offensive left tackles in football in David Bakhitari and right tackle Bryan Bulaga is expected to play after being bothered by a bad back. Bakhitari can handle Jerry Hughes, who was a big key for the Bills in beating the Vikings. And the Packers certainly won't be taking Buffalo lightly. Green Bay is coming off a road loss to the Redskins. The timing was bad for the Packers in that game coming off consecutive division games, the previous one being an epic overtime tie against the Vikings. The Packers are solid, have a better defense that they showed in the first half against the Redskins and Aaron Rodgers still is a top-five quarterback even at less than 100 pecent. Rodgers has healthy receivers and his best running back, Aaron Jones, is back from suspension. The Packers are in take-care-of-business mode after an embarrassing loss while the Bills and their rookie quarterback, Jared Allen, are still on Cloud 9. So the Packers aren't going to get caught sleeping like the Vikings did. If the Packers play their "A" or "B" game they will cover a double-digit spread especially if the Bills are less than sharp. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bengals v. Falcons UNDER 54 | 37-36 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
This total has been steamed up. I understand the move given how well the Falcons and Matt Ryan looked last week in beating the Saints, 43-37. I also understand the Falcons have key defensive injuries with both of their safeties and top linebacker out. I still see this total movement as an overreaction and enough to get involved in the Under. Ryan carved up a bad New Orleans defense that has major concerns and injuries in its secondary. Discount that performance, though, and Ryan has a 2-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Falcons realize the need to have a balanced offense. They will run the ball a lot against the Bengals even with lead back Devonta Freeman out again. That is going to keep the clock moving. The Bengals have a solid defense. Geno Atkins is one of the better all-around defensive linemen the Falcons will face all season. Cincinnati gave up a lot of rushing yards to the Panthers last week. That's because the Bengals had trouble containing the Panthers' run-option. That's not the offense the Falcons use. The Falcons' multiple injuries in their secondary are a concern. Andy Dalton has played well, but he's never to be trusted on the road. He does have five interceptions already. The Bengals are without their best runner, too, with Joe Mixon out. Atlanta's pass rush should be improved with the expected return of Takk McKinley. He had recorded a sack in each of the first two games before missing the Saints game with a groin injury. | |||||||
09-29-18 | UTEP v. UTSA UNDER 46.5 | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 2 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker opened this total low - but not low enough given how putrid these offenses are and the slow tempo they play at. Texas El Paso ranks last in the nation in scoring 13.5 points per game. Texas San Antonio isn't much better rating 123rd averaging 17.2 points. Both teams are among the bottom-eight in yards gained. The defenses on these teams are much better than their offenses. These are two of the worst teams in Conference USA so a conservative game plan should be in place with a chance for a rare win. The Roadrunners have gone Under in their last seven Conference USA games. The Under also has cashed in four of the last five meetings. | |||||||
09-29-18 | Nevada v. Air Force OVER 64 | 28-25 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a large total, but not large enough for the game to go Under. Air Force beat Nevada, 45-42, last season. I can see a combined 80 plus points again in this season's matchup. The Wolf Pack's passing attack can do damage against an Air Force secondary giving up more than 290 yards through the air. Sparked by quarterback Ty Gangi, the Wolf Pack are averaging 40.8 points per game. Air Force lacks the pass rushers to slow down Gangi. Air Force, though, is going to be able to run on Nevada. The Falcons rank sixth in the nation in rushing. The Wolf Pack are used to going against throwing teams. The over has cashed in 25 of Air Force's last 37 games. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,060 |
Dan Kaiser | $932 |
Jesse Schule | $566 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Ray Monohan | $518 |
Mike Lundin | $493 |
Tom Macrina | $430 |
Marc Lawrence | $400 |
Joseph D'Amico | $390 |
Big Al McMordie | $340 |