Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-29-18 | South Alabama v. Appalachian State OVER 56 | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 31 h 60 m | Show | |
South Alabama has one of the worst defenses in the nation surrendering 42 points and 498 yards per game. The Jaguars offense, though, is coming on averaging 38 points in their last two games versus Texas State and Memphis. Appalachian State is sure to take advantage of South Alabama's shortcomings. The Mountaineers are the sixth-highest scoring team in the country at 51.7 points a game. Mountaineers quarterback Zac Thomas has a mind-boggling 195.2 quarterback rating. I would not be surprisedi in the least if Appalachian State went Over this total by itself. | |||||||
09-29-18 | Purdue v. Nebraska +3.5 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
No this isn't a misprint. Purdue really is more than a field goal road favorite against Nebraska. Perhaps the line is justified giving how disappointing Nebraska has been under Scott Frost opening 0-3 and that Purdue is coming off a 30-13 victory against previously unbeaten Boston College. That was the Boilermakers' largest win margin of a ranked opponent in 19 years. But enough factors are at work here that I am confident in projecting Nebraska to win. The Cornhuskers wouldn't look so bad if they were 2-1. But the final moments of their games against Troy and Colorado went against them. The Cornhuskers then laid an egg against Michigan during their first road game. Michigan played well and steamrolled Nebraska. I see the Cornhuskers bouncing back here at home. Nebraska freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez has tremendous potential and is the right quarterback to operate the team's spread offense. This is the type of offense Purdue has trouble against. Martinez is a dual threat and has some of the best wide receivers in the Big Ten to throw to, including Stanley Morgan. He might be the No. 1 wideout in the conference. On defense, Nebraska has the pass rushers to bother David Blough, who needs a clean pocket to be effective. | |||||||
09-28-18 | UCLA v. Colorado UNDER 59 | Top | 16-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
To say that UCLA's offense has been a massive disappointment is still making an understatement. The Bruins rank 121st in the country in scoring at 17.3 points a game. They are 119th in yards at 319.7. Sure it was going to take a while for Chip Kelly to install his offense and get it going. But this is borderline ridiculous. There is a quarterback controversy, but neither Wilton Speight nor freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson have been very good for UCLA. Turnovers, bad play-calling and horrible offensive line play have all factored, too. Things don't figure to pick up for the Bruins in this tough road setting in high altitude. Colorado leads the Pac-12 in sacks and tackles for loss per game. Buffaloes linebacker Nate Landman is averaging more than 11 tackles per game and has two interceptions in three games. The Buffaloes are 3-0, but have played weak competition. I do believe Colorado quarterback Steven Montez is underrated, but his offensive line isn't that good and UCLA's defense will get turned around quicker than its offense. The Bruins are young, too, on defense, but have tremendous athletes and high level recruits manning the linebacker and secondary positions. | |||||||
09-28-18 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
Two below-the-radar pitchers take the mound here in a meaningless matchup. The Indians have clinched their playoff position so they could be resting regulars. The Royals rank 25th in runs and homers. But what really makes this a strong Under play is the starting pitching matchup and weather factors. Mike Clevinger gets the ball for Cleveland. He's given up only six earned runs during his last five starts spanning 29 2/3 innings. Ian Kennedy goes for Kansas City. He is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA in his last three starts. The Under has cashed in 19 of his last 26 starts. Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium is more of a pitcher's park. The weather forecast is going to be good for the pitchers, too, with temperatures in the low 50's with wind blowing in at 12-14. | |||||||
09-27-18 | Braves -125 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
The Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games and in pursuit of the Cubs for the best record in the NL. Atlanta's lone loss during this span came on Wednesday to the Mets - and Jacob deGrom. No shame in that as deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball. Now, though, the Braves draw the lowly Mets and Jason Vargas. He hasn't been good since the first half of last season when he pitched for the Royals. Vargas is 6-9 with a 6.25 ERA this season. He has a 6.14 ERA in three starts against the Mets this year. The Braves have gotten to Vargas for 19 hits in 14 2/3 innings. New York has scored thre runs or fewer in seven of its last 11 games. The Braves have scored at least five runs in six of their past eight games. I think it's a cheap price to lay with the much superior Braves. They are starting Julio Teheran and their bullpen has been shored up with the return to health of closer Arodys Vizcaino. Teheran has posted a solid 3.32 ERA during his past 10 starts holding batters to a .177 average in this time frame. He has a 2.42 career ERA in 24 lifetime appearances versus the Mets. Teheran has a 1.69 ERA against the Mets in four starts this year. | |||||||
09-26-18 | Astros +121 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
This is a crapshoot in a starting pitching matchup of Chris Devenki versus Sean Reid-Foley in what shapes up to be a bullpen game. So why not back the much superior Astros in a 'dog role? Why not indeed. Houston is 25-7 in its last 32 games. Devenski was very good last season in a relief role. He hasn't been healthy this season. He should be OK for a few innings here. The Astros have the superior bullpen and offense even if all of their regulars don't play. There's a possibility the Astros get back Carlos Correa, too. | |||||||
09-25-18 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -127 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
As the season finally draws to a merciful end for the Rangers and Angels those two teams have put on a recent power display. The Rangers have smacked 11 homers in their last 11 games, while the Angels have hit 18 homers in their past 11 games. I see no earthly reason why each of these teams can't score at least four runs apiece given their homer production, bad starting pitching matchup and depleted bullpens. We begin with the Rangers, who are going with Yovani Gallardo. He is well past his prime and clearly has hit the wall going 1-5 with a 7.39 ERA in his last seven starts. Opponents are batting .328 off him during this span. Gallardo has been especially brutal during his past three starts with a 10.22 ERA. Gallardo's road ERA this season is 7.29 and his night ERA is 6.98. He has made two starts against the Angels and is 0-1 with an 8.00 ERA. Gallardo is not pitching deep into games as you might guess. He hasn't reached the sixth inning during any of his last six outings. The Rangers' bullpen doesn't have a single reliable reliever. The Angels are starting Matt Shoemaker, who has an 8.03 ERA in his last three starts. Shoemaker's home ERA this season is 5.79. The Over is 8-2-1 in Shoemaker's past 11 home starts. His career ERA versus Texas is 4.91 in 36 2/3 innings. Shoemaker doesn't pitch deep into games either having failed to go more than five innings during his last five starts. The Angels do not have a strong bullpen either. Both team's bullpens are very much depleted, too, at this late juncture of the season. Weather shouldn't factor with just a slight wind that will be blowing out. Pat Hoberg is slated to be behind the plate. The Over has cashed 55 percent of the time he has been the home plate during the last two years spanning 58 games. | |||||||
09-24-18 | Steelers +1 v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
Even on the road, I'll take Ben Roethlisberger over Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has been playing well above his head. The Steelers are by far more experienced in marquee national televised games. They also are 9-1-1 in their last 11 regular season road games. The Buccaneers are beat-up in the secondary, vulnerable to Antonio Browns and JuJu Smith-Schuster. Another plus for the Steelers is the expected return of cornerback Joe Hadon, who should limit DeSean Jackson's home-run ability. Pittsburgh also has a far more dependable place-kicker. | |||||||
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs UNDER 55 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
Ryan Fitzpatrick didn't suddenly become Joe Montana at 35. The career journeyman has put together two monster games and suddenly he's the best quarterback in the NFC. I'm not buying it. Fitzpatrick reverts back to who he really is and that's a turnover-prone backup quarterback who has played for seven teams. The Steelers' secondary is stronger with the return of cornerback Joe Haden from a hamstring injury. The Buccaneers entered this week ranked last in yards per rushing attempt. Their offense can not continue to put up big numbers without any type of ground attack. Look for the Steelers to keep their safeties back daring the Buccaneers to run. Ben Roethlisberger hasn't been nearly as good on the road as at home. Le'Veon Bell remains out. So the Steelers' offense isn't as strong as perceived for this matchup especially with the Buccaneers upgrading their pass rush and having a healthy Gerald McCoy, a stud defensive tackle. McCoy has the most sacks of any tackle in the NFL during the past six seasons. Tampa Bay has a bottom-five place-kicker in Chandler Catanzaro, but one of the better punters, Bryan Anger. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 51.5 | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -106 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
It's no secret this figures to be a high-scoring game with Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford squaring off. The linesmaker accepts that by making this high of a total. But there are some less obvious reasons that show the total still is short and that more points will be scored than expected. This is the Patriots' first game this season inside a dome. That's a huge plus for the Over. New England opened its season going against two tough defenses, Houston and Jacksonville. The Lions' defense is a huge drop. This drop will be even bigger if the Lions are forced to play without their best pass rusher, Ezekiel Ansah, and best pass defender, cornerback Darius Slay. Both are questionable with injuries. The Lions' secondary is much worse minus Slay. Detroit doesn't have good cover linebackers and are facing the No. 1 tight end in football, Rob Gronkowski, and a pair of running backs, James White and Rex Burkhead, who are excellent pass catchers out of the backfield. The Patriots became a lot more athletic and fast on the outside after trading for Josh Gordon. New England also has key defensive injuries. Trey Flowers, perhaps the Patriots' most effective pass rusher, suffered a concussion last Sunday as did safety Patrick Chung. They are both questionable. Kenny Golladay has emerged as the Lions' second-best wide receiver. Stafford has three strong wide receiving targets now with Golden Tate, Golladay and Marvin Jones. Matt Patricia is off to a rocky start as the Lions' new head coach. He is the former defensive coordinator for the Patriots, though, so he should know well where to attack New England's defense. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Bears v. Cardinals +6 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 42 h 9 m | Show | |
The Bears are a team on the rise. Right now, though, they are a work-in-progress with a below average quarterback and caught in a bad situational spot. It only is Week 3. But the 0-2 Cardinals are in desperate straits under rookie head coach Steve Wilks. They must win this home game, or already they can forget about any playoff possibility. Chicago is traveling a long distance on a short week after beating Seattle at home this past Monday night. Chicago is 3-8 ATS following a victory. The Bears' defense is promising, but it is not at their best yet. That won't happen until Khalil Mack and rookie Roquan Smith become 100 percent comfortable in the system. The Cardinals have their own star pass rusher, Chandler Jones. It was Jones, not Mack, who led the NFL in sacks last season with 17. No other player had even 15 sacks. Cornerback Patrick Peterson gives Arizona the best defensive back on the field, too. Wilks, the former defensive coordinator for Carolina, should be able to devise a sound plan going against second-year quarterback, Mitch Trubisky. The game has yet to slow down for Trubisky. He isn't any better than Sam Bradford. More mobile yes, but he lacks Bradford's veteran savvy and accuracy. Bradford will play better once the Cardinals figure out they need to get superstar running back David Johnson in space more. Wilks has had two games now to figure that out. Johnson has been under utilized. I see Johnson being the focal point of Arizona's offense and more dangerous than in the previous two games because the Cardinals will do more to get him on the outside, including putting him in the slot, or even flanking him wide. The Bears are going to take the Cardinals' best punch. I don't see them ready to cover more than a field goal on the road in a huge flat spot. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Rockies +103 v. Diamondbacks | 2-0 | Win | 103 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
The Diamondbacks went with their two top pitchers, Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin, during the first two games of this crucial series. Both lost. Those defeats have killed any realistic hope the Diamondbacks had of making the playoffs. The Diamondbacks are 3-11 in their last 14 games. They are a dead team. Arizona has scored two or fewer runs in four of their last five games. Their bullpen has blown up. Colorado has the momentum trailing the Dodgers by just 1 1/2 games in the NL West and also 1 1/2 games behind the Cardinals for the second wild-card spot. The Rockies have played well on the road compiling a 43-37 away mark. The Rockies need this game and are going with their best starter, Kyle Freeland. He's in Cy Young Award territory with a 15-7 and 2.95 ERA. Freeland has been especially sharp down the stretch going 9-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his last 18 starts, allowing more than three earned runs only once during this span. There is the chance the Rockies get Trevor Story back, too, for this game. They've managed to beat the Diamondbacks in the first two games of this series without him. Colorado should be able to do damage against Zach Godley, who is 1-4 with a 7.42 ERA during his last six starts. The Rockies just faced Godley two weeks ago and battered him for five runs on seven hits and two walks in four innings in a 13-2 victory. That was the third time this season Godley has gone against Colorado. He holds a 6.14 ERA versus the Rockies in those three starts. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Chargers +7.5 v. Rams | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 58 m | Show | |
It's understandable that the Rams sit on top of most people's NFL power ratings. They are strong on both sides of the ball. But I envision the Rams struggling to win this game for a number of reasons. Sean McVay held his key players out during preseason. The Rams were able to get away with that because their opponents during the first two weeks of the regular season were the Raiders and Cardinals. Both are winless. The Chargers represent a major upgrade. The Rams are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. They don't carry a strong home field advantage especially against this opponent, which also plays now in LA. The Chargers are 15-7-1 ATS in their past 23 road contests. It is difficult for a team to blow out the Chargers because of Philip Rivers. During their last 18 games, the Chargers have lost by more than a field goal only four times. Rivers is an elite quarterback and is having another excellent season ranking in the top-four in touchdown passes, yards, completion percentage and passer rating. The Rams have a trio of good wide receivers in Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods. But Keenan Allen is the best wide receiver on the field. He trumps them all. Rivers is especially effective when he has Allen. Much is being made of Joey Bosa being out. Sure his absence lessens the Chargers' pass rush. But the Chargers still have Melvin Ingram and their secondary, already good, is even better this season with the addition of star rookie safety Derwin James. The Rams are missing one of their key defensive cogs, too, with linebacker Mark Barron expected to sit out a third straight game due to an Achilles injury. The Rams' kicking game was a huge strength last season because of Greg Zuerlein. However, he's out. So the Rams are going with largely untested backup kicker, Sam Ficken. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans -5.5 | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 7 m | Show | |
Both teams are 0-2 and desperate. The Texans have the talent, huge defensive edge and home field to do more about it. DeShaun Watson is getting less rusty and better each week. Getting deep threat Will Fuller back is huge for him. As good as Odell Beckham Jr. is, I would take DeAndre Hopkins over him. The Texans are coming off one of their ugliest and most embarrassing losses in franchise history, losing 20-17 on the road to the Titans last Sunday when Tennessee was missing its three top offensive tackles, leading receiver tight end Delanie Walker and going with backup Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. This should mean a huge maximum effort from Houston this week. The Texans' defensive line should control a disappointing Giants offense that is averaging a meager 14 points a game. Eli Manning is well past his prime. He's been terrible and so has the revamped Giants offense line. Nobody has played well on it, including left tackle Nate Solder. Manning was sacked six times in New York's Sunday night loss to the Cowboys. J.J. Watt should be able to dominate. Pat Shurmur has not made a difference. The Giants are as bad under him as they were during Ben McAdoo's two-year stay. Houston's offensive line is no great shakes either. But the Texans have the superior defense and Watson is extremely mobile. Those are enough important edges to ensure the Texans beat the Giants by at least a touchdown. | |||||||
09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 26 m | Show |
Patrick Mahomes may be the league MVP through the first two weeks with his NFL record 10 touchdown passes. But there is a flip side to the Chiefs: Their defense. It's terrible. Kansas City ranks last defensively in yards and passing yards. The Chiefs are 29th in scoring defense giving up 32.5 points per game. The 49ers have become respectable since Jimmy Garoppolo took over as their starting quarterback. San Francisco is 6-1 in those games. I like the 49ers much more in an underdog role than as a favorite. I find them feisty and well-coached under Kyle Shanahan. They have covered in seven of their last 10 road games. The lone loss in Garoppolo's 49ers starts came opening week to the Vikings, 24-16, on the road. San Francisco could have won that game, but self-destructed. Garoppolo was under heavy pass rush pressure from the Vikings. The Chiefs don't have a strong pass rush. They have only two sacks. Their secondary remains rudderless without star safety Eric Berry, who is expected to miss a third straight game due to a lingering heel injury. The 49ers have a well-designed offense that can put up points. Matt Breida surprisingly leads the NFC in rushing. San Francisco has the defensive advantage here. DeForest Buckner has more sacks than the entire Chiefs team. Yes, the Chiefs are explosive. There are going to be points scored here that's for sure. But San Francisco's defense is going to look better with the return of linebackers Reuben Foster from suspension and Malcolm Smith from a hamstring injury. Foster has the potential to be a difference maker both as a run-stopper and blitzer. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Arizona State +18.5 v. Washington | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
It's strange but true. Arizona State has won 11 of the past 12 games in this series, including winning last year. The Sun Devils have covered in their last eight visits to Washington. The Huskies have the strongest defense in the Pac-12. Arizona State, though, is used to strong defenses having gone against Michigan State and San Diego in its past two games. The Sun Devils have an explosive passing attack spearheaded by senior Manny Wilkins, who has thrown for back-to-back 300 yard games. He has dangerous receiving weapons, including N'Keal Harry, who I regard as the best wide receiver in the Pac-12. Washington hasn't seen receivers this good all season. Washington has been just average on offense. I do like Myles Gaskin. However, the Huskies' offensive line isn't an elite unit and quarterback Jake Browning is overrated. He has four touchdown passes and four interceptions. I think there is very good value in taking a number I consider inflated. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
Louisiana Tech can put up points sparked by quarterback J'Mar Smith and running back Jaqwis Dancy. They've help the Bulldogs average 42 points. Skip Holtz has taken the Bulldogs to a bowl game in each of the last four seasons. The Bulldogs have hung with other SEC foes during the past two seasons losing by one point to South Carolina last year and to Arkansas by one point two seasons ago. This is an in-state game that Louisiana Tech is going to take far more serious than LSU, which is in a letdown spot and also caught in a division sandwich. The Tigers pulled out a one-point road victory against Auburn last week as a double-digit 'dog by scoring nine unanswered points in the fourth quarter. LSU hosts Mississippi next week. That's an SEC matchup the Tigers will be pointing to not this non-conference game. Note, too, LSU has yet to commit a turnover in three games. That's hard to sustain. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Rice v. Southern Miss OVER 53 | 22-40 | Win | 100 | 43 h 10 m | Show | |
The last eight games in this series have gone Over. Look for that trend to continue. There were 77 points scored last season in Southern Mississippi's 43-34 road win. Kwadra Griggs is back from a two-game suspension giving Southern Mississippi a pair of quarterbacks to torment a bad Rice defense as he joins Jack Abraham, who has moved the ball well but been hurt by turnovers. The Golden Eagles are averaging 37.5 points per game. They have experienced depth at wide receiver and facing a Rice defense that is among the bottom-20 in yards allowed and points surrendered at 38.7 per game. Rice has yielded an average of 50.6 points in its last three games against Southern Mississippi. Southern Mississippi has strong defensive numbers. But that's going against Jackson State and Louisiana Monroe. Rice has skill position talent, including quarterback Shawn Stankavage and running back Emmanuel Esukpa, who has topped 100 yards rushing twice in three games this season while averaging 5.4 yards a carry. | |||||||
09-22-18 | UNLV +7.5 v. Arkansas State | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show | |
Under Tony Sanchez, UNLV has received better coaching and recruiting. The Rebels have now reached borderline bowl status. They were right with USC on the road in their opener until the final couple of minutes and are off two confidence-building blowout victories. The Rebels have the quarterback and ground game to hang with Arkansas State on the road. The Red Wolves have a strong tradition and also are historically well-coached. But their defensive front is nothing great and UNLV can attack it with dual-threat quarterback Armani Rogers and Lexington Thomas, one of the best running backs in the country. Only two teams average more than the Rebels' 346.7 yards on the ground. Arkansas State ranks 96th in stopping the run. The weather forecast is in UNLV's favor, too. There is a chance of rain with wind in the 10-15 mph range. The Rebels are a running team while Arkansas State is the superior passing team. The Rebels used to be patsies on the road. Not anymore under Sanchez covering eight of their last nine away contests. The Red Wolves have failed to cover in their last four home games. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Pittsburgh -3 v. North Carolina | 35-38 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
This is turning into a lost season for North Carolina. The Tar Heels lost to California in their opener, were buried in Week 2 by East Carolina, 41-19, as 16 1/2-point road favorites and then didn't play last week against Central Florida because of Hurricane Florence. The aftermath of this hurricane as made it very difficult for North Carolina to focus and prepare for this matchup. That won't be the case with Pittsburgh. The Panthers are in huge revenge mode. Their 34-31 loss to the Tar Heels cost them a bowl berth last year. The Panthers have their confidence up after an impressive 24-19 home win against Georgia Tech last Saturday. Pitt has a good runner in Quadree Ollison and its quarterback, Kenny Pickett, played much better than he did earlier in the season. The Panthers shouldn't encounter problems going against a defense that yielded 510 yards of total offense to East Carolina. | |||||||
09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -3.5 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -108 | 60 h 53 m | Show |
What is the oddsmaker trying to tell you by making USC, which is 1-2 and hasn't looked sharp, more than a field goal favorite against unbeaten Washington State? They are saying the Trojans are the superior team. I believe that, too. I envision the Trojans playing their best game of the season. Washington State has played far weaker competition than USC having beaten Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington, an FCS team. By contrast, USC has taken on Stanford and Texas during the last two weeks. Both of those losses came on the road. Now the Trojans are at the LA Coliseum where they have won 17 in a row, including 12 straight versus Pac-12 foes. This will be the fourth start for J.T. Daniels, one of the most highly recruited quarterbacks in the country. Daniels has tremendous talent and dangerous receivers. USC's running backs are better than they have shown so far especially Stephen Carr. Washington State no longer has its star quarterback, Luke Falk. Gardner Minshew, a transfer from East Carolina, has done well as the Cougars' quarterback. But this is a real step-up game for him. The Trojans have an overall talent edge and bursting frustration that is ready to be let loose here. | |||||||
09-21-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -115 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
Neither Colorado nor Arizona is in top form. The Diamondbacks, though, are home, have Zach Greinke going and are in absolute must-win mode in order to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. The Rockies are 1-5 in their last six games. They have scored nine runs during these past six games and aren't likely to have star shortstop Trevor Story, who is suffering from right elbow inflammation. Greinke is 19-4 at home the past two years. He has a 2.43 home ERA this season. Arizona has won 24 of his past 35 starts at Chase Field. Greinke has faced Colorado four times this season and is 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA. I trust him in this spot. I can't say the same for Rockies starter German Marquez, who has nearly a 4.00 ERA on the year. Marquez has been pitching better, but has struggled versus Arizona with a 4.33 ERA against the Diamondbacks this season in five starts. This is a short lay price to get the better pitcher at home where he has a dominant record. | |||||||
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -157 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
The Browns should have beat the Steelers at home. The Browns should have beat the Saints on the road. Now the Browns drop way down in class hosting the Jets. New York has a rookie quarterback and is playing for the third time in 11 days while traveling on a short week after having hosted the Dolphins this past Sunday. Even Hue Jackson can't screw this one up for the Browns. Forget - if you can - the Browns being 1-35-1 in their last 37 games. Focus on just this particular matchup. The Browns have tremendous motivation hosting a rare nationally televised game. The spot couldn't be better for them drawing an inexperienced quarterback on short preparation time. Sam Darnold is precocious, but he's facing a decent - if not above average defense - in just his second NFL road start and is pitted against an aggressive, veteran defensive coordinator, Gregg Williams. This will be the toughest defense Darnold has seen in the NFL having played the Lions and Dolphins. Darnold operates behind a sub-par offensive line that figures to lose the battle of the trenches and he lacks dangerous skill position weapons. Tyrod Taylor is a veteran quarterback who knows how to win. The Browns have the best wideout, too, in Jarvis Landry. The combination of Taylor, a superior defense and a big home field advantage - made larger because of the short week - is enough for the Browns to get the victory. | |||||||
09-19-18 | Reds +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -129 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
Strange things happen in September during baseball season. One such thing is Matt Harvey pitching well again. Harvey is pitching his best ball this month posting a 2.50 ERA in three starts. Certainly the Brewers are the superior team, but the Reds have gone 5-5 during the past 10 meetings in Milwaukee. The Reds can hurt the Brewers again drawing lefty Gio Gonzalez, who hasn't been effective during the last four months after pitching well in April and May. He's allowed five earned runs or more in five of his last 10 starts. The Reds are 22 games below .500. However, they are a far more respectable 22-23 versus lefty starters. If given the cushion of plus 1 1/2 runs, Cincinnati would be 9-2 in its last 11 games. | |||||||
09-19-18 | Cardinals -108 v. Braves | 3-7 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
This matchup features two rookie starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty for St. Louis and Touki Tossaint for Atlanta. Flaherty not only is the proven one of these two, but he has been one of the better pitchers in the National League this season with a 2.86 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting just .193 against him. Tossaint has a 4.67 ERA in three starts and is dealing with control problems with 13 walks in 17 1/3 innings. The Braves are having bullpen trouble, too. The Cardinals have played much better since Mike Shildt replaced Mike Matheny going 37-22. Atlanta has dropped four in a row, all at home The Braves are 4-14 in their last 18 games at SunTrust Park. The Cardinals have dominated the Braves in Atlanta winning the past eight times at SunTrust Park. | |||||||
09-18-18 | Blue Jays -111 v. Orioles | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
When it comes to giving up home runs, Dylan Bundy resembles Al Bundy. Bundy has surrendered 38 homers. That's not in his career. That's this season alone! No pitcher yields more homers than Bundy. Bundy has allowed at least one homer in each of his last 12 starts. The Orioles are 1-7 in Bundy's last eight starts. The Blue Jays have hit the fifth-most homers in the majors. They have an edge in the pitching department, too, with Aaron Sanchez facing Bundy. Sanchez is returning back into form following a two-month stint on the DL because of a finger injury. He held the powerful Red Sox to to one run on three hits in seven innings this past Wednesday. This will be Sanchez's third start of the season against the Orioles. He is 1-0 against them with a 1.88 ERA. Toronto has dominated Baltimore this year winning 13 of 17 for 76 percent. The price is low enough to fade the Orioles, who have by far the worst record in baseball at 43-107. | |||||||
09-17-18 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Bears | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
I get that the Seahawks are far from what they used to be and they have three key players out - Doug Baldwin and linebackers Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. That leaves Russell Wilson, safety Earl Thomas and guard J.R. Sweezy as the only players left from their winning Super Bowl team of five years ago. But I'm not buying this steam and public love for the Bears. Not as chalk of more than a field goal. This is foreign territory for the Bears. They aren't used to being on the national stage with all the pressure on them. Since 2015, Chicago has been a home favorite seven times. The Bears are 1-6 SU and ATS in those games with the lone victory coming against the Browns, who have failed to win in their last 19 games. Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll are used to success. Wilson is a top-five quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky is a work-in--progress who I don't think is any good being more runner than passer. Matt Nagy has coached one NFL game and he made a lot of questionable decisions in that opening week loss to the Packers when his Bears blew a 20-0 lead letting a wounded Aaron Rodgers beat his team. Carroll is an above average NFL coach. Nagy has much to prove. Trubisky is in his second season, but remains very inexperienced. He only started 13 games in college and his coach last year, John Fox, did him no favors with his ultra-conservative methods. Trubisky misses a lot of reads and is not an instinctive player. Seattle always has had excellent defensive coaching. The Seahawks will be ready to defend against Trubisky. The Packers defense held the Bears offense without a touchdown after Chicago's first drive. Helping matters for the Seahawks is newly signed linbacker Mychal Kendricks. He's a good player, but is poison because of pleading guilty to insider trading. He very well could get prison time for that. The NFL suspended Kendricks for breaking the law, but he's allowed to play because he's appealing the suspension. He's expected to play tonight. Wilson is good enough to beat the Bears just like Rodgers did. Wilson almost led Seattle to an upset road win against the Broncos last week in a 27-24 loss. He threw for 298 yards and three touchdowns against a much better secondary than the Bears. Baldwin played just 11 snaps before getting hurt. Wilson accomplished that without Baldwin catching a pass, playing with unproven running backs and a still-evolving offensive line that may be better this week. Wilson is a magician who you can't preplan against. If it weren't for a desperation final play turnover, Wilson would have finished the Broncos game with a quarterback rating of 105.3. Baldwin isn't the Seahawks' only decent receiving weapon. Wilson has veteran Brandon Marshall, who still has some juice, speedster Tyler Lockett and promising rookie tight end Will Dissly, who showed well against Denver. Marshall and Dissly also are excellent blockers. The Seahawks also have a secret weapon - rookie punter Michael Dickson. He was tremendous during preseason and he continued that opening week averaging 59 yards on six punts with a 57.5 net average with four of the punts downed inside the 20. This wasn't just punting in mountain weather. Dickson is that good. Carroll has a tremendous record in prime time games with the Seahawks going 22-4-1. Seattle doesn't have nearly the team it had when it compiled many of those prime time victores but it does have big-game, big atmosphere experience. That's important. So is having the far better quarterback. That combination will help get Seahawks bettors the money. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 42.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 100 h 6 m | Show | |
It's too bad for Odell Beckham Jr. that he has to play outdoors and with such a weak-armed quarterback as Eli Manning. Beckham is a great wideout, but he's limited by his quarterback. Manning is well past his prime. He struggles to throw downfield. So does Dak Prescott. Both quarterbacks are challenged with their vertical throws. They are more game managers than dangerous passers. Both teams have an excellent running back. So this matchup has all the makings of a conservative, low-scoring affair especially considering both team's defensive improvement. The Giants held Jacksonville's offense to 13 points last week. The Cowboys, with a healthy Sean Lee, have a top-10 defense with the potential to become elite. The Cowboys have two things going for them, an underrated defense and Ezekiel Elliott. What they don't have are dangerous receivers and a proven kicker after they cut Dan Bailey. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Lions v. 49ers -3 | Top | 27-30 | Push | 0 | 151 h 59 m | Show |
The 49ers and Jimmy Garoppolo step way down in class here after opening against the Vikings in Minnesota last week. The 49ers still could have pulled the upset if not self-destructing deep inside Minnesota territory. Now they face a far easier defense and an offense that remains one-dimensional. Garoppolo has lost just once in eight NFL starts. The spot sets up well, too, for the 49ers. The Lions last played in California opening week of 2015. They are making the long journey on a short week following their Monday home game against the Jets. Detroit will be on an off-surface, too, playing outdoors on grass instead of indoors on carpet. The 49ers have owned the Lions at home. The last time they lost to Detroit at home was 1975, a string of 12 victories in a row. San Francisco's held five of its last eight home opponents to 18 points or fewer last season. The line has gone up since I released the play, but I like it strong up through a touchdown. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Panthers v. Falcons -4.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 141 h 48 m | Show | |
The Falcons are on extra rest while Carolina is banged-up and making its lone road appearance for the first five weeks of the season. The Falcons' defense has greatly improved holding seven of their last nine opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Panthers are severely banged-up in the offensive with both of their tackles out. Cam Newton still is experiencing accuracy problems and likely won't have his star tight end, Greg Olsen. The Falcons have defeated the Panthers the past three times hosting them. Their winning margin has been by 11.3 points. After facing a weak Dallas passing attack in Week 1, the Panthers will be challenged far more by Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Co. The Falcons are helped much more than the Panthers by playing on a fast track and not a grass field. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins OVER 45.5 | 21-9 | Loss | -130 | 95 h 14 m | Show | |
Washington's defense is improved, but it is far from top level. Andrew Luck showed me enough this past Sunday that I feel confident believing he can put up the required number of points to help this total go Over. The Colts should prove to be a strong Over team all season if Luck stays healthy with a porous defense and a passing offense reliant on Luck. The Colts are going to be passing a lot with Luck. Many of his throws are going to be short designed to move the chains because lack of a ground attack and a vulnerable offensive line that rates well below average. T.Y. Hilton is back to being a dominant force with Luck behind center and Ryan Grant is an underrated possession receiver. He fits in well with Luck as does tight end Jack Doyle. The Redskins are a far better offensive team with a healthy Chris Thompson and Jordan Reed. Washington actually ranked No. 3 offensively last year until Thompson was lost for the season in Week 11. They plummented to 30th once he went down. Thompson provides a big-play dimension for Alex Smith, who is coming off his finest season. That was with the Chiefs, but Smith looks like a good fit with Washington. He should have no problems moving the ball at home against what could be the least talented secondary in the NFL, an inexperienced linebacking group and no feared pass rushers. The weather forecast is calling for wind in the 15 mph range and the chance of a drizzle. That shouldn't bother either offense, though, as both are predicated on short passing. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Mets +1.5 v. Red Sox | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a marquee pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom versus Chris Sale. There should be an asterisk, though. That's because Sale is going to be on a pitch count and is expected to go three innings at the most. So there is tremendous value getting deGrom especially armed with plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line. True, Boston has the best record in baseball with 102 victories. No other team has more than 93 wins. Surprisingly, the Mets have a better record than the Red Sox during the past 14 games going 10-4. Boston is 9-5. So the Mets are playing well and they have who I consider the best pitcher in baseball going. Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola have hit rough patches, so deGrom has a real shot to win the Cy Young Award. He broke a 108-year major league record by allowing three earned runs or fewer in his last 26 starts. You can not get more consistent than that. In his last eight starts, deGrom has held foes to two earned runs or less. He leads the majors with a 1.71 ERA. None of the other qualifers have an ERA under 2.00. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Eagles -3 v. Bucs | 21-27 | Loss | -116 | 124 h 55 m | Show | |
Ryan Fitzpatrick had the game of his life in leading the Buccaneers to a stunning road victory against the Saints this past Sunday. Now the Bucs get to host the defending world champions. The spread is short because the Bucs are on a high, at home and the Eagles aren't likely to have Carson Wentz again. The Eagles are worth laying a small road price even with Nick Foles not looking like he did in the Super Bowl. That was a fluke performance. Foles is good enough, however, to help deliver a victory against this porous defense. Fitzpatrick is a career journeyman for many reasons, including his lack of consistency, his propensity for turnovers and not being talented enough to beat a strong defense such as the Eagles. The Eagles are on extra rest and preparation having played last Thursday. They are far better coached and their defense is upper tier while Tampa Bay's defense is bottom tier. The defending Super Bowl champions have the experience and savvy not to lose to this lowly foe. The Buccaneers lack a ground game to fall back on if Fitzpatrick struggles, which I anticipate here. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Arizona State v. San Diego State UNDER 49.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 38 h 37 m | Show | |
Arizona State is giving up 10 points per game and just held Michigan State to 13 points at home. The Sun Devils rank No. 1 in run defense and catch a break in that San Diego State will be without senior starting quarterback, Christian Chapman. He holds the most wins in Aztecs' history. Chapman suffered a knee injury last week and won't play. ASU's defensive coordinator, Danny Gonzales, held that position last season for San Diego State. So he'll hold a lot of inside information about the Aztecs. San Diego State is strong defensively, too. This is no surprise since the Aztecs are coached by Rocky Long. San Diego State ranked 21st in scoring defense last year. The Aztecs have held their past three home opponents to an average of 15.6 points a game. The Under has cashed in 71 percent of the Aztecs' last 29 home games. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Arizona State v. San Diego State +6 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 37 h 20 m | Show | |
Those who doubted Herm Edwards in his return to coaching - and college at that - are quiet these days after the Sun Devils reached the top-25 for the first time in four years with a tremendous 16-13 home upset of Michigan State this past Saturday. The Sun Devils played their guts out coming from 10 points behind in the fourth quarter and were rewarded by beating the Spartans at the gun on a field goal. Up next for Arizona State following this game is a huge Pac-12 matchup against Washington. So this is just a terrible spot for the Sun Devils especially going on the road. San Diego State has no such look-ahead. The Aztecs host Eastern Michigan in a non-conference game next Saturday. Early money has come on Arizona State despite its situation because San Diego State won't have senior starting quarterback Christian Chapman. He's more game manager, though, as the Aztecs rely on running back Juwan Washington. He's the third-leading rusher in the nation with 314 yards in two games. This is Edwards' first road game with the Sun Devils. ASU is 6-13 ATS in its past 19 away contests. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan -3.5 | 30-25 | Loss | -140 | 80 h 26 m | Show | |
Saskatchewan wasn't playing well early in the season when it got blasted, 40-17, by Ottawa in its first road game of the season. That was back in June. Now it's revenge time for the Roughriders. The Roughriders are playing their best ball winning and covering their last four games. Saskatchewan gives up the third-fewest yards per game in the league. The Redblacks are struggling offensively scoring only a combined 25 points in their last two games against two sub .500 opponents. Ottawa QB Trevor Harris has not looked good. Zach Collaros is expected to play after getting banged-up last week. The Roughriders are 5-0 ATS when he has played. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Rockies v. Giants +1.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
I don't trust the Rockies on the road especially when there is pressure on them. The Rockies were shut out by Chris Stratton, 2-0, last night and now face Madison Bumgarner. The prideful Bumgarner was rocked by the Rocies in a 9-8 road loss last week giving up six earned runs in five innings. The Giants are playing the string out. But Bumgarner will be up for this game. So should his teammates. Bumgarner has pitched much better at home this season where is 3-2 with a 1.49 ERA. He hasn't allowed a run during his last two AT&T Park starts spanning 14 innings. Rockies starter German Marquez has been pitching well lately, but he's several levels below Bumgarner and has a poor history versus San Francisco with an 0-2 lifetime record and 6.86 ERA. He's made three starts at AT&T Park and has an 8.79 ERA. The Giants have scored only five runs in their last four games so I feel more secure laying juice instead of taking an underdog price with the protection of plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line as I envision another close game here. So does the oddsmaker setting a total of 7. | |||||||
09-15-18 | UMass v. Florida International OVER 62 | 24-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Flordia International rolled past UMass, 63-45, in the final regular season game last year. Now the teams are back at it and there will be plenty of scoring again. Perhaps not 108 points like last year, but enough to go above this total. UMass is bombs away. FIU can't stop the pass. So the Minutemen will pile up points. They play up-tempo, which is a huge plus for the Over. But the Golden Panthers also easily will score because they will control the line of scrimmage and have the skill position talent to light up a weak UMass defense. | |||||||
09-15-18 | UTSA v. Kansas State UNDER 47 | 17-41 | Loss | -113 | 117 h 15 m | Show | |
Through two games, Texas San Antonio statistically ranks as one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Roadrunners played Baylor and Arizona State. They are averaging 13.5 points and rank among the bottom three in total yards and rushing yards. The Under has cashed in seven of the Roadrunners' last nine games. Kansas State is a running team that plays at a very slow pace. The Wildcats are dropping way down in class going from Mississippi State to this opponent. Kansas State has a much bigger opponent, West Virginia, on deck. So the Wildcats are not going to show anything fancy. This will be a grind out, type of win perfect for an Under play. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh OVER 52 | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
Look for offenses to rule this game. Pittsburgh is not going to be able to stop Georgia Tech's running attack. The Yellow Jackets have rushed for more than 400 yards in each of their two games, including piling up 602 total yards last week against South Florida in a 49-38 road loss. Georgia Tech quarterback TaQuon Marshall should be fine after missing some time in that game with a toe injury. Pittsburgh surrendered 44 points in the last 31 minutes of its last game, a 51-6 loss to Penn State. The Panthers' passing attack and quarterback Kenny Pickett should be much sharper this week. Their ground attack did go for 245 yards versus the Nittany Lions. Georgia Tech allowed South Florida quarterback Blake Barnett to account for 293 yards and four touchdowns. | |||||||
09-14-18 | Tigers +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
The Tigers are going with their best pitcher, lefty Matt Boyd, here against Josh Tomlin. Josh Tomlin? Yep the Indians stiff is getting a rare start because Cleveland is gearing up for the playoffs and is on cruise control. The Indians are displaying a real lack of concern about winning this game by trotting Tomlin out to start. Tomlin is 1-5 with a 6.63 ERA. This will be his seventh start. He's 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his first six starts. The Indians booted him out of the rotation way back on May 15. The Tigers beat the Indians, 9-8, during Tomlin's last start on May 15 getting to him for four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 innings. Boyd gave up one run on two hits with 11 strikeouts and one walk in his last start, which came this past Saturday against the Cardinals. Boyd has a 3.05 career ERA versus Cleveland in seven appearances, including six starts. Cleveland is only 19-18 versus southpaws on the season. The Indians have lost seven of the past eight times they've faced a lefty starter. If given 1 1/2 runs, the Tigers' record would look much better. They would be 9-2 in their last 11 games if plus 1 1/2. | |||||||
09-13-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies UNDER 10 | Top | 3-10 | Push | 0 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Coors Field is Coors Field. I get that. But in a pitching matchup of Clay Buchholz versus Kyle Freeland with a double-digit total, I have to go Under. These are two of the most underrated pitchers in the National League, if not all of baseball. Buchholz has thrived in the National League with the Diamondbacks. He has done far better than expected - and has yet to slow down giving up just three earned runs during his last five starts spanning 34 1/3 innings. He is 7-2 on the season with a 2.01 ERA. Freeland is 14-7 on the year with a 2.91 ERA. It has not bothered him pitching at Coors Field where he actually has thrived posting a 2.21 home ERA. The lefty is on a string of nine straight starts of allowing three earned runs or fewer. The Under has cashed in 21 of his past 28 starts. Arizona has gone below the total the past six times when facing a southpaw starter. Weather is not a factor. The scheduled home plate umpire is Chris Conroy. The Under has cashed in 58 percent of his 24 games behind the plate this year. | |||||||
09-12-18 | White Sox -130 v. Royals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
The Royals have been playing better of late, but they still are a terrible team and 7-21 in their last 28 games versus a lefty starter. Kansas City faces White Sox southpaw Carlos Rodon in this matchup. Rodon had been brilliant before his last two starts giving up two earned runs or less in eight of nine starts. Rodon has not looked good in his past two outings, though. However, he hasn't pitched three poor games in a row all season. I like him here against a Royals team that ranks 28th in runs. Chicago has won 11 of its last 16 road contests. The White Sox draw Eric Skoglund, who had been on the DL with a sprained elbow. He is 1-5 on the season with a 6.45 ERA. Skoguland isn't likely to pitch long and the Royals have one of the worst bullpens in the majors. | |||||||
09-12-18 | Pirates -112 v. Cardinals | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Up three games for the final wild-card spot, the Cardinals have the luxury of not overtaxing their young pitchers. They are doing just that by going to a six-man starting staff. St. Louis is pitching its sixth starter today, Daniel Poncedeleon. The Pirates have a huge pitching edge as they are going with their No. 1 starter, Jameson Taillon. He has been outstanding since the All-Star break going 6-2 with a 2.48 ERA. Taillon hasn't given up more than three earned runs during his past 10 starts. He has a 1.88 ERA in his past four starts. Pittsburgh is 8-2 in his last 10 road starts. So Taillon can be counted on to keep the Cardinals in check. The same can't be said for Poncedeleon holding down the Pirates. This only will be his fourth big league start. Poncedeleon last started 11 days ago and yielded three runs on five hits in 3 1/3 innings against the Reds in a 4-0 loss. The Pirates have scored five or more runs in five of their last six games. | |||||||
09-11-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -119 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Arizona and Colorado are involved in a big series. The pitching matchup for Tuesday is Zach Greinke versus Antonio Senzatela. I want Greinke going for me. The Diamondbacks are 7-2 in Greinke's last nine road starts. I regard Greinke at least two levels higher than Senzatela, who has close to a 5.00 ERA and owns a horrible history versus the Diamondbacks with a lifetime 8.27 ERA in six career games. He is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in two games, including one start, against Arizona this season. Greinke is coming off a rare bad start. A bad start for Greinke is giving up four earned runs. Only twice in his last 15 starts as he allowed more than three earned runs. Greinke is 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA in three starts versus Colorado this season. The Diamondbacks have fared well at Coors Field, too, winning nine of their last 12 there. | |||||||
09-10-18 | Braves v. Giants +107 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
The Giants are in a great position here to put an end to their season-high eight-game losing streak of which the last six losses have come on the road. San Francisco is 39-30 at home. The Giants have defeated the Braves 11 of the last 16 times they have hosted them. The youthful Braves are in letdown mode after rallying for six runs in the ninth inning to beat the Diamondbacks, 9-5, Sunday in Arizona. That victory allowed the Braves to take three of four from Arizona and move ahead of the Phillies by 4 1/2 games in the NL East. It's not just the spot that is ripe for San Francisco. The Giants also have a pitching matchup edge. Sean Newcomb has clearly hit the wall in this his first full season in the majors. Newcomb has allowed 35 hits and 21 runs during his past five starts spanning 23 2/3 innings. Going back to his past 11 starts his ERA registers 5.91. The Giants have nine more hits than their opponents during their last four games. They are pitching Dereck Rodriguez, who has been outstanding. The rookie has not hit the wall like Newcomb as only once in 15 starts has he given up more than three earned runs. Rodriguez has made eight starts since the All-Star break and has posted a 1.97 ERA and 0.87 WHIP during this span. The Braves have never gone against him. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers OVER 47 | Top | 23-24 | Push | 0 | 93 h 38 m | Show |
In time, the Bears defense is going to be good. But right now the Bears have a ways to go as Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith aren't likely to see extended game time against the Packers. Mack just was traded to the Bears and hasn't played since last season. The Bears won't risk an injury by playing him the whole game. I project Mack will spot play. Smith, the eighth player chosen in the 2018 draft, got off to a late start and then suffered a hamstring pull. So he's not likely to draw big minutes either. This sets up well for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers has a number of fresh receiving faces and a monster red zone target in Jimmy Graham. The Bears offense and Mitchell Trubisky should be much better thanks to huge improvement at the receiver spots - both wide and at tight end - and far more innovative coaching with Matt Nagy replacing caveman John Fox. The Packers' secondary is extremely young with the exception of Tramon Williams. Green Bay still lacks a pass rush and its linebackers are far below average in coverage. Tarik Cohen was held under wraps in preseason. He could be a big factor in this matchup with his receiving skills out of the backfield. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals UNDER 44 | 24-6 | Win | 100 | 1300 h 2 m | Show | |
One thing to consider in Week 1 is scoring usually is down. That was the case last year as 10 of the 12 Sunday games went Under opening week. This matchup has the makings of being lower-scoring than the oddsmaker perceives. Jay Gruden is beginning his fifth season as Washington's head coach. The Redskins have averaged 12.2 points in their previous four opening week games under Gruden. Former Panthers defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will be making his head coaching debut for Arizona. Wilks has been preparing for the Redskins the entire off-season. He wants to set a strong defensive tone. The Redskins averaged 21.4 points last season. They have less of a downfield passing threat now with Alex Smith at quarterback replacing Kirk Cousins. Smith is learning a new system, too. Arizona gave up an average of 20 points at home last season. The Redskins have good linebackers and a shutdown cornerback in Josh Norman. Their major defensive weakness is stopping the run. The Cardinals are going to be far more conservative under Wilks than they were when Bruce Arians was coach. So it's easy to project David Johnson to get a lot of carries. The Redskins know this, too. So they'll be stacking the line. Arizona has one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Sam Bradford is like Alex Smith in that he's more game manager than gunslinger. So the Cardinals' attack is going to consist of a lot of running and short passes, both of which keep the clock moving. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos -155 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 148 h 17 m | Show | |
There's nothing wrong with a highly talented Broncos defense that a decent quarterback can't cure. A seismic climate change from a combination of Brock Osweiler/Trevor Siemian to Case Keenum should prove a winning elixir especially in this spot for Denver. Given weapons and a dominant defense, Keenum led Minnesota to 13 wins in its last 15 games before a loss to the Eagles in the NFC title game. Denver has the pass rushers with Bradley Chubb joining Von Miller to make things rough on Russell Wilson, who may be without his top receiving weapon if Doug Baldwin isn't able to play because of a knee injury that kept him out of preseason. Wilson is a one-man band. Seattle has huge weaknesses in the offensive line, tight end and wide receiving depth. The Seahawks no longer have their fabled Legion of Boom defense to fall back on either due to defections and the retirement of safety Kam Chancellor. The Broncos have opened at home each of the last six years. Their record in these games is 6-0 SU, 4-1-1 ATS. Opponents aren't conditioned yet to play 60 minutes because of spot playing their starters during preseason. This situation is made worse for Denver's foes because of playing in high mountain altitude that increases their fatigue factor. Even under normal conditions and when their defense was much better, the Seahawks still encountered road problems early in the season going 0-6 SU and ATS the past four years in away games played during the first three weeks. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 1297 h 54 m | Show |
Forget last season's 0-16 record. The Browns are going to be much improved this season. The oddsmaker has lined their over/under win total at 5 1/2 victories. That should be an indicator right there. The Browns have been itching for this home opener all off-season having had to endure and live with last season's winless year. Talent-wise, the Browns are close to a .500 team. They were done in by a staggering minus 28 turnover ratio, worst in the NFL in 17 years. All but 13 of their 41 turnovers were committed by overmatched rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer. Veteran Tyrod Taylor replaces Kizer. Taylor has a winning record as a starting NFL quarterback. Tom Brady is the only starting quarterback who has a lower interception rate than Taylor during the past three years. Taylor has just 20 turnovers during the last three years with Buffalo spanning 43 starts, an average of fewer than seven turnovers per season. By contrast, Cleveland quarterbacks had a combined 34 turnovers in 2017. Cleveland has decent talent with Myles Garrett, Jamie Collins, Jarvis Landry, Kevin Zeitler, Josh Gordon, Emmanuel Ogbah, Jabrill Peppers, Denzel Ward, Carlos Hyde and David Njoku. Pittsburgh has a history of playing down to its level of competition especially on the road. The Steelers just nipped a much worse Browns team opening week last year at Cleveland winning, 21-18. The Steelers lost to the Bears in their next road contest. They edged the Colts, who were playing a backup quarterback, by only three points at Indianapolis and defeated the sub .500 Bengals by three points at Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger has a staggering home/road difference. He plays far better at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger has thrown 49 more touchdown passes at home and has 14 more interceptions on the road. Roethlisberger has a new offensive coordinator for the first time in six years with Todd Haley leaving. Guess where Haley went? Cleveland. Haley knows Roethlisberger and the Steelers' tendencies as well as anyone. The Steelers were 25th in yards per rush last season despite having Le'Veon Bell, who could enter the matchup extremely rusty if he has another prolonged holdout like last year. If you discount the Steelers' last road game in which they scored 34 points against the Texans and their backup quarterback, T.J. Yates, Pittsburgh has failed to score more than 21 points in seven of its last nine road games. Taylor has a 23-5 record when his team allows 21 or less points. Note, too, the Steelers under Mike Tomlin are 1-5-1 ATS in Week 1 during the past seven years. | |||||||
09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -4.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 1297 h 40 m | Show | |
Jimmy Garappolo sparked the 49ers to five straight victories to finish last season. But let's be clear here, Garappolo is not some elite quarterback and the 49ers are not a good team. That late season surge has made San Francisco an overrated commodity. Minnesota could have the best roster in the NFC. Certainly the Vikings have the top defense having allowed the fewest points and yards per game last year. The Vikings went 13-3 in 2017. That was having Dalvin Cook for just four games. Cook is back and Minnesota is upgraded at quarterback with Kirk Cousins. The 49ers have some serious defensive flaws. Signing cornerback Richard Sherman doesn't cover up all of their defensive backfield issues. MInnesota won seven of its eight regular season home games by more than a touchdown last season. That's not a surprise since the Vikings have had the best ATS home mark in the NFL since Mike Zimmer became their head coach in 2014. During Zimmer's four years, the Vikings have covered a staggering 67 percent of their regular season games. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Bengals v. Colts UNDER 47 | 34-23 | Loss | -121 | 1297 h 39 m | Show | |
Here is a little know fact. The Colts went Under the total during their final eight games last season. Of course, that was with backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Andrew Luck is back now. Luck last threw a regular season pass in 2016. He's returning to an offense that averaged 4.6 yards per play, tied for last in the NFL. Luck is going to be extremely rusty. The youthful Colts aren't likely to put Luck at risk especially behind a leaky offensive line facing excellent pass rushers Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins. So Indy's game plan figures to be highly conservative. The Bengals' offensive line also was terrible last season. It was a primary reason Cincinnati finished last in yards in 2017. The Bengals only had three games last season in which there were more than 46 points scored. Cincinnati failed to score more than 20 points in five of its last six road games. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Bengals +3.5 v. Colts | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 641 h 26 m | Show | |
The Bengals are better than the Colts yet taking more than a field goal. What gives here besides Indy's home field? It's the Andrew Luck factor of course. Sure Luck is a huge upgrade on Jacoby Brissett. But Luck is going to be rusty having not played a down last season. Luck makes the Colts better, but not good enough to seriously contend in what shapes up to be a very good AFC South Division. The Colts have lost and failed to cover in seven of their last eight season-openers. I don't see that changing in this matchup. Cincinnati is an average-type team. They are better defensively than the Colts and have a strong wide receiver matchup edge with A.J. Green. Joe Mixon also gives Cincinnati the best running back. I'm not a huge fan of Marvin Lewis, but I prefer his stablility against the youthful Colts, who are breaking in a new head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and special teams coach. The Colts could have as many as nine new defensive starters. They are making the switch to a 4-3 defense from a 3-4 and the early returns are not encouraging. Their defense looks like a bottom-four type unit. I like Cincinnati's pass rushers much better than the Colts. I'm also a fan of the Bengals' new defensive coordinator, Teryl Austin. He did a good job with the Lions. Lewis and Austin are respected defensive minds. Much this game is focused on Luck. But the Colts are inferior to the Bengals in the pits. Football Outsiders ranked Indy's offensive line as the worst pass blocking unit in the NFL last season. The Colts aren't going to drastically change that just because they drafted a guard in the first round. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants UNDER 43.5 | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 220 h 48 m | Show | |
The Giants' offense should be better this season with a re-tooled offensive line, a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Saquan Barkley. But it's never going to be high-scoring due to the advance age and limitations of Eli Manning. The Giants face a top-two quality Jacksonville defense that returns nearly all of its defensive starters. The Jaguars don't figure to break the scoreboard either with erratic Blake Bortles. They are a run-oriented team that is going to pound the ball and limit their chances in a road game they stand a very good chance of winning if they don't commit turnovers. Bortles lost his projected top wide receiver, Marquise Lee, in preseason. The Giants' defense fell apart last season. But two years ago it was very good. I see New York's defense playing much like it did in 2016. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns UNDER 46 | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 92 h 2 m | Show | |
A combination of factors put me on the Under. The weather forecast is for bad weather with high winds. Ben Roethilisberger has a history of playing much worse on the road and the Steelers now appear unlikely to have Le'Veon Bell. The Browns are running a conservative offense with Tyrod Taylor behind center. This is a division rivalry where defense should rule. | |||||||
09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford -6 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 39 m | Show |
Stanford just isn't Bryce Love. KJ Costello has become a star quarterback and he has one of the best wide receivers in the Pac-12, JJ Arcega-Whiteside. The Cardinal rolled past San Diego State, 31-10, last week despite Love rushing for only 29 yards. Costello and Arcega-Whiteside made up for that teaming up for 226 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Costello not only has great skill position weapons, but a strong offensive line. USC can't match that firepower with freshman J.T. Daniels making his first road start. The Trojans just led UNLV by five points in the fourth quarter before pulling away although failing to cover the spread. Stanford was perfect at home last season. The Cardinal also have double revenge from last season. USC coach Clay Helton has a terrible record when taking points. The Trojans are 1-8 SU and ATS since 2015 as underdogs. | |||||||
09-08-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies +129 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 129 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
I like Dodgers rookie Walker Buehler. But he shouldn't be a road favorite at Coors Field against Kyle Freeland. The Rockies have won 22 of their last 31 home games. Freeland has been a huge part of Colorado's success at home. The Rockies are 10-1 (91%) in his last 11 starts at Coors Field. Freeland is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball with a 13-7 mark and 2.96 ERA. He is one of the few pitchers who actually thrives when pitching at hitter-friendly Coors Field with a 2.27 home ERA this season. Colorado is 6-0 during his last six overall starts. The Dodgers are without their closer, Kenley Jansen, for this series. Freeland has gone at least six innings in each of his past six starts. He's backed up by Adam Ottavino, one of the best setup pitchers in baseball, and closer Wade Davis. The Dodgers can't match that late-inning relief with Jansen missing in action. | |||||||
09-08-18 | Cincinnati v. Miami-OH UNDER 51 | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 59 h 54 m | Show | |
Intensity should be up for this in-state rivalry matchup. The Under has cashed in four of the last five head-to-head meetings. There were just 38 points scored last season when Cincinnati won, 21-17. Defense should carry the day again this time around. Miami has an inexperienced offensive line and a predictable offense. Cincinnati limited UCLA to 306 total yards in upsetting the Bruins, 26-17, last week. Cortez Broughton had 3 1/2 sacks for Cincinnati in that game. He and fellow defensive tackle Marquise Copeland should allow the Bearcats to control the line of scrimmage. UCLA had a number of players suspended in that game and doesn't have a strong defense. Yet the Bruins held Cincinnati to 285 yards. The Bearcats may be without their leading rusher from last season, Gerrid Doaks, for another week. He's dealing with a groin injury. The Bearcats still have an usettled quarterback situation. Weather is another factor on liking the Under. The forecast is for winds around 15 mph and a strong possibility of rain. | |||||||
09-08-18 | Ball State +34.5 v. Notre Dame | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Notre Dame easily could overlook Ball State having just won a huge marquee game against Michigan last week. Ball State finished last season with nine straight losses. The Cardinals are underrated, though. Ball State set a school record in piling up 652 yards in a 42-6 victory against Central Connecticut State last Thursday. The Cardinals got huge games from quarterback Riley Neal and running back James Gilbert, both of whom missed the last nine games with injuries last year. They make Ball State a better-than-perceived team. The Cardinals should be more excited about this matchup than Notre Dame. This is the first meeting between the two Indiana-based schools. Ball State also has covered nine of its last 11 games in September. | |||||||
09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU OVER 58.5 | Top | 42-12 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
This total has come down enough where I'm going to get involved strongly believing that there are going to be a lot of points scored here. There is around a 40 percent chance of rain, but very slight wind. I'll take that in order to get a total this low on this matchup. There were 92 points scored in last year's matchup won by TCU, 56-36. The Horned Frogs could put up 60 by themselves. SMU gave up 36 points through three quarters to North Texas in its opener, losing 46-23. TCU shouldn't have any problems against this defense with a balanced attack and quarterback Shawn Robinson looking good last week in a 55-7 opening win versus Southern. Robinson threw for three scores completing 17 of 24 passes and also ran for two more. SMU surrendered 444 passing yards to North Texas State. That doesn't bode well for the Mustangs. I'm not a fan of SMU coach Sonny Dykes. He is offensive-minded, though, and the Mustangs will be throwing a lot as they aren't going to be able to run the ball against TCU. SMU quarterback Ben Hicks can put up points with his passing. Hicks has thrown the most touchdowns in SMU history. He threw for 3,569 yards and 33 touchdowns last season. SMU constantly is going to be attacking through the air, something I want an underdog to be doing when I'm going Over a total. I also like that the game is being played on a fast track at Gerald Ford Stadium, which uses FieldTurf. | |||||||
09-06-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -149 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -149 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
This is a very tough spot for the Braves, who lost 9-8 to the Red Sox at home on Wednesday after blowing a six-run lead. Now Atlanta takes to the road for the first time since Aug. 26 going cross-country. The Red Sox left the Braves reeling outscoring them, 22-11, in sweeping the three-game series. Atlanta's bullpen had to go 12 2/3 innings during the series and lacks a consistent closer with Arodys Vizcaino on the DL with a shoulder injury. Arizona has been at home since Monday. The Diamondbacks were idle Wednesday so their bullpen is rested. Arizona shouldn't have to rely on their relief pitchers too heavily with Zack Greinke on the hill. He remains a brilliant pitcher with a 13-9 record and 2.97 ERA. Greinke has been his best at home, too, going 6-3 with a 2.16 ERA at Chase Field. He has surrendered two or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 home starts. Arizona is 24-10 in Greinke's last 34 home starts. He should be especially strong pitching with an extra day of rest. Arizona has won 16 of the past 23 times Greinke has pitched on five days rest. The Diamondbacks also are 11-5 following an off day. Anibal Sanchez gets the call for the Braves. He also is pitching on extra rest. However, the Braves are 0-5 the last five times he's gone on five days rest. The 34-year-old has pitched much better than expected, but he could start to be wearing down. Sanchez has only reached the sixth inning once in his last four starts giving up nine earned runs in 22 2/3 innings during this span. He's allowed 28 baserunners in this time frame and three homers. Atlanta is 1-4 in Sanchez's past five starts. | |||||||
09-05-18 | Yankees v. A's +146 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 146 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Oakland is 49-21 in its last 70 games. The A's have been a remarkable story and continue to be underrated. | |||||||
09-05-18 | Tigers v. White Sox -163 | 10-2 | Loss | -163 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm willing to lay this price in order to get on board with Michael Kopech. The rookie could be the best pitching prospect in baseball. So far he's lived up to that giving up one run in 11 innings with a 9-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during his first three big league starts, two of which were interrupted by rain. Kopech faced the Tigers on Aug. 26, holding them to one run on seven hits in six innings. The White Sox have quietly been playing good ball winning 14 of their last 21, including going 8-4 in their last 12 games. The Tigers aren't as enthused as the youthful White Sox. Detroit has suffered a lot of injuries and is playing the string out. The Tigers are 3-8 in their last 11. They are starting Jordan Zimmerman, who has a 6.26 lifetime ERA versus the White Sox in 12 career starts. | |||||||
09-03-18 | Mets +124 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 124 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
What if I told you that you could get arguably the best pitcher in baseball - the one who has the lowest ERA in the majors and has given up three or fewer runs in 24 straight games - at an underdog price? You would grab it, right, especially when it comes with a huge situational edge? That's what the underdog Mets have going for themselves on Monday in a pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom versus Alex Wood. The Mets can't match the Dodgers at the other eight spots, but deGrom is an absolute monster ranking first in ERA, fourth in strikeouts and sixth in WHIP in the majors. The Mets have won three of their last four games. The Dodgers are playing well, too, but are in a dangerous letdown spot after winning their last three games against the Diamondbacks to take over sole possession of first place in the NL West Division. LA won all of these games against Arizona by the same 3-2 score. The Mets already are on the West Coast having just concluded a series against the Giants in San Francisco. They draw Wood, who has possess a decent by hardly dominating 8-6 record and 3.42 ERA. The Mets are well acquainted with Wood, who used to pitch for the Braves in the NL East. Wood is 1-3 career-wise versus the Mets with a 3.83 ERA. The Dodgers are 0-4 in Wood's last four home starts. | |||||||
09-02-18 | Rockies -132 v. Padres | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Maybe it's because he pitches at Coors Field. Maybe it's because the Rockies aren't a big market team. Whatever the reason, Kyle Freeland may be the most underrated pitcher in the National League. Freeland is 12-7 with a 2.90 ERA despite pitching at Coors. Freeland has been pitching well for quite a while now, but he's been especially dominant during his last five starts with a 1.67 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings during this span. Colorado is 16-5 in Freeland's past 21 starts, 10-1 during his last 11 outings. Oh, yes, Freeland is a southpaw. The Padres have a hideous 13-30 record versus lefty starters this season. That's the most losses against southpaws in the majors. The Padres are in rebuild mode. They are just 27-44 at home. San Diego has gutted its bullpen and is auditioning young starters, sort of throwing darts. Rookie Jacob Nix gets the call here. He has a 4.05 ERA and doesn't miss many bats with just seven strikeouts in 20 innings. Colorado is familar with Nix having just seen him on Aug. 22. The Rockies scored three runs on five hits in five innings against Nix winning 6-2 at home. The Rockies rank in the top-10 in runs and batting average, while the Padres rank in the bottom-three in those categories. | |||||||
09-01-18 | Red Sox v. White Sox +155 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 14 m | Show | |
Boston is a phenomenal 93-42. However, the Red Sox are merely 17-14 when going against a lefty starter. The Red Sox face one of the hottest southpaws in the league in a pitching matchup of Eduardo Rodriguez versus Carlos Rodon. Rodriguez is making his first start since July 14 having been sidelined by a sprained ankle. Rodon has been terrific since returning from injury. He is 5-0 with a 1.84 ERA during his past nine starts. Not only do the White Sox have their hottest pitcher going, but they are playing their finest ball winning 12 of their last 17 games. Chicago is averaging 5.4 runs in its past 19 games. The White Sox have scored four or more runs in 11 of their last 13 games. The Red Sox have dropped five of their last six road games, including a 6-1 setback to the White Sox on Friday night. | |||||||
09-01-18 | Brewers +130 v. Nationals | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
Milwaukee is 8-3 and very much in playoff contention. They have a very good manager in Craig Counsell and excellent team morale knowing their management is constantly making moves to improve the team. One of those moves was picking up Gio Gonzalez, who had pitched seven years for Washington. The Brewers are sure to pick the newly acquired Gonzalez's brain about the Nationals. Washington has a terrible manager, Dave Martinez, low morale and has been a major underachiever with a below .500 record. Yet the oddsmaker has installed the Nationals as the favorite here because of a pitching matchup of Chase Anderson versus Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has the big reputation. But it's Anderson who has the lower ERA this season. Opponents are batting just .224 versus Anderson, who has a 2.97 ERA in 12 road starts. Starsburg has really struggled when pitching at home going 2-5 with a 5.68 ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA in three lifetime games against the Brewers. Strasburg can't expect much help from a Nationals bullpen that has been depleted by injuries and trades. | |||||||
09-01-18 | Boise State v. Troy +10 | Top | 56-20 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 8 m | Show |
Troy lost some key people from a year ago, but the Trojans are home in a revenge spot and dangerous in an underdog role. They proved that upsetting LSU as a 20 1/2-point road 'dog last season. The Trojans have won a combined 21 games the past two seasons under Neil Brown. This is a solid program under Brown that has a strong recuriting base. So the talent is there. Boise State figures to struggle initially with its passing game and Troy has a top-notch secondary. Boise State is making a long trip and going into high southern heat. | |||||||
09-01-18 | Old Dominion v. Liberty OVER 58 | 10-52 | Win | 100 | 42 h 28 m | Show | |
I see both these teams scoring a lot of points based on their offensive strengths, which fit the opponent's defensive weakness. Old Dominion should pile up the rushing yards with Jeremy Cox running behind an experienced and talented offensive line. Liberty has an outstanding passing game led by quarterback Stephen Calvert. The Flames have nearly all of their top receivers back, too. Old Dominion has a vulnerable defensive backfield. | |||||||
09-01-18 | Texas State v. Rutgers -16.5 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
Rutgers is going to relish a chance to bury an opponent and built up its confidence. The Scarlet Knights have had the defense. Now they have the makings of a decent offense to accomplish this against an overmatched opponent. Boston College transfer Jon Hilliman leads a good crop of Rutgers running backs that includes talented Raheem Blackshear and Jerome Washington is one of the better tight ends in the country. Freshman quarterback Art Sitowski was an "A" level recruit. How bad is Texas State? The Bobcats have won three games the past two years. Texas State didn't intercept a pass last season and only once in two seasons did its offense produce at least 14 points in non-conference FBS play. | |||||||
08-31-18 | Western Kentucky v. Wisconsin OVER 52.5 | 3-34 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 47 m | Show | |
Wisconsin should come close to covering this total by itself. The Badgers have maybe the top runner in the country, Jonathan Taylor, a decent quarterback in Alex Hornibrook and all five returning starters on their offensive line. Western Kentucky surrendered 30 or more points during each of its last six regular season games last year. The Badgers should have no problem wearing this defense down. The Hilltopppers are going with a more up-tempo offense with head coach Mike Sanford calling the plays. Sanford's strength is running an offense. Western Kentucky's ground attack should be much improved, too, with a deep set of runners and athletic fifth-year senior Drew Eckels at quarterback. | |||||||
08-31-18 | Red Sox v. White Sox +152 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 152 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
White Sox plus $1.48 hosting Red Sox Michael Kopech isn't just the White Sox's best pitching prospect. He's one of the top ones in all of baseball. Kopech hasn't disappointed during his first two starts allowing just one run in eight innings. Now he draws the Red Sox at home. The Sox are 11-5 in their last 16 games. That's the White Sox, who have compiled that record. The Red Sox actually have lost four of their past five road games. Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi has been cold giving up four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. Eovaldi has been tagged for nine earned runs on 18 hits during his last two starts spanning only 9 1/3 innings. The Red Sox are down several players because of injury, including first baseman Mitch Moreland who isn't expected to play because of a sore knee. | |||||||
08-30-18 | Raiders v. Seahawks -154 | Top | 30-19 | Loss | -154 | 62 h 10 m | Show |
Seattle usually is good in preseason. But the Seahawks are 0-3 this preseason. Those losses have come by a combined 13 points, though. The Seahawks looked very good on both sides of the ball this past week at Minnesota losing, 21-20. Now the Seahawks host the Raiders in the final preseason game. The Raiders are 2-1 in preseason with both of their victories occurring at home. Seattle is 9-4 SU and ATS in its last 13 preseason games. The Raiders are 1-11 SU and ATS during their last 12 preseason road games. They have met the Seahawks in preseason during each of the last three years and lost each time. The Seahawks would like to get a win at home to avoid a winless preseason. Their offensive line and defense should provide the difference after playing so well last week. Seattle also has a secret weapon - rookie punter Michael Dickson. He may be the best punter during preseason. He has been tremendous both in length and in having his punts land inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Oakland is averaging only 14.6 points during preseason. The Raiders haven't scored more than 16 points in any game. Jon Gruden isn't risking Derek Carr behind an offensive line that still is trying to find its way. This leaves the Raiders with a pair of below average backup quarterbacks - Connor Cook and E.J. Manuel. Both are terrible and Gruden knows it. He's on record as saying his team may not have their real backup quarterback on the team yet. | |||||||
08-30-18 | New Mexico State v. Minnesota UNDER 46.5 | 10-48 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 36 m | Show | |
New Mexico State could manage only 135 yards - 93 of which came during a final touchdown drive in garbage time - and seven points in losing 29-7 at home to Wyoming this past Saturday. Now the Aggies go on the road to face Minnesota, a Big Ten team that ranked 36th in scoring defense last year giving up 22.8 points per game. I don't see the Aggies having nearly enough time to straighten out their offensive line woes especially while going against a better defense. Minnesota, though, doesn't figure to put up many points either. The Gophers are going with a true freshman at quarterback, Zack Annexstad. So don't expect the Gophers to come out throwing. They have a solid running back in senior Rodney Smith. He should get lots of carries, which will eat clock. New Mexico State's defense was much improved last season under second-year defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani. The Aggies should be able to hold their own against Minnesota's bland offense. Weather could play a factor, too. The forecast is for wind in the 10 mph range with a chance of thunderstorms. | |||||||
08-29-18 | Tigers -101 v. Royals | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Kansas City is 2-9 the past 11 times Danny Duffy has pitched at home. Duffy has been horrible this season. I'm not buying the Royals opening as a favorite against the Tigers when Detroit has its best pitcher, Michael Fulmer, on the mound. Detroit has the superior late-inning relievers, too, and has scored more runs than the Royals. The Royals, in fact, have scored the fewest runs in the majors. Fulmer looked good in his last outing this past Friday. He held the White Sox scoreless for 4 2/3 innings throwing 77 pitches. That was his first start since the All-Star break. He had been out with an oblique strain. Fulmer should go longer in his second start back from the injury. The Tigers have buried Duffy in their two meetings this season. Duffy has given up 13 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings during two starts versus Detroit for an ERA of 11.32. Duffy doesn't have a good history against Detroit with a 7-10 career-mark and 4.63 ERA in 24 outings. | |||||||
08-28-18 | Marlins v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
Not only are the Red Sox far, far superior to the Marlins, but there is zero chance of them taking Miami lightly. That's because Boston just suffered its first sweep of the season losing three in a row on the road to Tampa Bay. Now the Red Sox are home and should be re-energized after being idle on Monday. I see this as a kill spot for the Red Sox so am going to lay 1 1/2 runs in order to knock down the high juice as the oddsmaker also envisions this as an easy win for Boston. The Red Sox are 48 games above .500. The Marlins are 19 games below .500. Boston is 39-14 the past 53 times they've met an opponent with a losing record. The Red Sox have beaten their opponent by multiple runs during 10 of their last 11 victories. The Marlins have lost by more than one run in seven of their past eight defeats. The pitching matchup is Jose Urena, who is 4-12 with a 4.50 ERA, against swingman Brian Johnson, who is at his best when starting. Johnson is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA in 10 starts. Boston has won eight of those 10 outings. Miami is 3-8 in Urena's past 11 road starts. Urena has pitched slightly worse on the road. He's going to be facing a DH and the top team in the majors in runs, batting average and OPS. The Marlins have nobody anywhere close to the caliber of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. | |||||||
08-27-18 | Nationals -110 v. Phillies | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
The Nationals really need this game to keep their flickering playoff hopes somewhat alive. I see them getting the win here in a pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg versus Zach Eflin. Both pitched poorly when they matched up five days ago. The Nationals won that game, 8-7, at home. Strasburg made that start having just come off the DL. He was rusty having not pitched since July 20. Following that game, Strasburg was quoted as saying, "It's a work in progress. I obviously missed a while, so I'll learn some things and take it into the next one (start)." Strasburg has pitched much better on the road where he is 4-2 with a 2.33 ERA this season. He has a tremendous history pitching against the Phillies with a 10-2 mark, 2.48 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. Strasburg's ERA at Citzens Band Park is 1.45 in eight career starts. The Nationals got their bats going on Sunday scoring a combined 14 runs during the final two innings against the Mets.The Nationals pounded Eflin for five runs, four of which were earned, on 10 hits in 3 1/3 innings this past Wednesday. Eflin probably should not still be in the Phillies' starting rotation. He has a 5.59 ERA in his last seven starts. He has a 6.48 career ERA versus the Nationals in two starts. The Phillies are 7-12 in their last 19 games, including losing six of their last eight games. | |||||||
08-26-18 | Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 40.5 | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 57 m | Show |
The Cowboys may have wanted to use this game as their dress rehersal, but offensive line injuries prevent that. Out are All-Pro center Travis Frederick and right guard Zach Martin. Right tackle La'el Collins may miss the game, too, after suffering an injury during Thursday's practice. Without those linemen, Jerry Jones won't risk his top skill position players. So don't expect to see Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. Key wide receivers Cole Beasley and Tavon Austin aren't expected to play either since they are still dealing with groin injuries. Dallas hasn't solved its tight end woes brought about by the retirement of Jason Witten and backup quarterback Cooper Rush has not played well. Rush is likely to play extended minutes. The Cowboys' third-string quarterback is Mike White. He could see action, too. The Cowboys figure to go vanilla with their priority finding out who is best suited to be their No. 3 running back. So not only is Elliott likely to sit, but so is second-string running back Rod Smith. That means a lot of handoffs from Rush to either Bo Scarbrough or Darius Jackson as they battle for the No. 3 running back role. Rush has thrown just one touchdown pass in preseason. The Cowboys are averaging 17 points in their two preseason games. The Cardinals are giving up an average of just 16 points in their two preseason games under new head coach Steve Wilks, formerly the defensive coordinator for the Panthers. The Cardinals aren't likely to do anything fancy on offense either. They don't want to risk brittle starter Sam Bradford. The Cowboys could mount a fierce outside pass rush with Randy Gregory joining DeMarcus Lawrence. Arizona did want to get a look at rookie Josh Rosen, but the No. 1 draft choice suffered a bruised thumb on his throwing hand in practice this week so he may not play. If Rosen doesn't play that opens up extensive minutes for Mike Glennon, who is one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the NFL. It could also mean time for fourth-string undrafted rookie Charles Kanoff. | |||||||
08-26-18 | White Sox -111 v. Tigers | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Surprised to see the White Sox a road favorite? Don't be. Michael Kopech is pitching for Chicago. The righthander might be the best pitching prospect in baseball. Kopech's big league debut was cut short after two scoreless innings against the Twins this past Tuesday because of a rain delay. Kopech had four strikeouts in that brief appearance. Kopech had 174 strikeouts in 128 1/3 innings in the minors before getting the call up. The Tigers have scored fewer than four runs in four of their last five games. They rank last in on-base percentage versus righty starters. The White Sox are playing well winning eight of their last 11. They draw Jordan Zimmerman, who has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 9 1/3 innings against the White Sox this season. Detroit is 5-12 in Zimmerman's past 17 home starts. | |||||||
08-25-18 | Hawaii v. Colorado State UNDER 58 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
Opening college football games, especially in this Week 0 before the first full week kicks off next weekend, can be tricky. This matchup, though, projects to be lower-scoring that the oddsmaker anticipates. Hawaii averaged just 17.6 points in its last five road games. The Under has cashed in its last six Mountain West Conference games. The Rainbow Warriors are going with a run-and-shoot type of offense featuring lots of quick-hitting short passes. This isn't the best offense to play an Under on. However, Hawaii has a lot of inexperience. The Warriors are going to go through growing pains with this offense. They aren't to be in sync this early in the season. Hawaii is breaking in a new quarterback after Dru Brown transferred to Oklahoma State. The Warriors also lost Dylan Collie to BYU. Collie led Hawaii in receiving last year. The Rainbow Warriors' attack may not have its full concentration either because of the damage Hurricane Lane is causing in Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors also have to deal with a four-hour time difference and higher elevation. Note, too, the game is being played on a grass field, which is slower than a turf field. Colorado State has good linebackers and its secondary has some key returners. Where the Rams took a massive hit was in their offense. Gone are three of their best players in school history - quarterback Nick Stevens, receiver Michael Gallup and running back Dalyn Dawkins. Colorado State lost four of its top five wide receivers and is breaking in three new offensive line starters. So I envision both offenses being off-kilter. If Colorado State were to grab a big lead, I could see the Rams calling off the dogs and playing very conservatively knowing they meet in-state rival Colorado on the road next Friday. | |||||||
08-25-18 | Braves v. Marlins +154 | 1-3 | Win | 154 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
Anibal Sanchez has turned back the hands of time. After posting ERA's of 4.99, 5.87 and 6.41, the 34-year-old Sanchez appeared washed-up. He has rejuvenated his career with the Braves this season, but is beginning to slow down. Sanchez has a 3.13 ERA on the season, but in his last six starts his ERA is 4.22. The Marlins have proven extremely tough at home with lefty Wei-Yin Chen on the mound winning 14 of the past 20 times he has started at Marlins Park. The Braves have been a great story going 72-56. However, they have a losing record versus southpaw starters. Chen has been terrible on the road with a 1-6 mark and 9.35 ERA, but great at home with a 2.05 ERA. He has a 2.08 ERA in three starts this month. Atlanta has been held to three runs or fewer in six of its last nine games. The Braves also have dropped their last five Saturday games. | |||||||
08-24-18 | Lions +3 v. Bucs | Top | 33-30 | Win | 105 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
Being the better team doesn't always matter when it's preseason. Unless that team has motivation, which the Lions do here against the Buccaneers. Detroit is 0-2 and didn't look good in its last game, a 30-17 home loss to the Giants as 3-point favorites last week. The Lions need a victory. So does Matt Patricia, Detroit's first-year head coach. So the Lions are pointing to this game even more than the normal dress rehersal. Not only are the Lions going to play their starters for at least the first half, but they also scouted the Buccaneers. This is something they didn't do for their first two preseason games. Matthew Stafford has looked good in camp. However, he's played only three series - 13 snaps - during preseason so far. He could play into the third quarter in this game. Patricia has made it clear this is the Lions' dress rehersal game and that he won't be playing his starters next week during the Lions' final preseason game. Tampa Bay has nothing to prove. The Buccaneers are 2-0 winning both of their preseason games on the road. Tampa Bay has been horrible at home in preseason going 2-8 SU and ATS the past five years. The Buccaneers have a cluster injury situation in their offensive line. They didn't have four of their top six offensive linemen practice Wednesday. Left tackle Donovan Smith definitely won't play due to a sprained knee. Jameis Winston has played in both preseason games throwing a combined 31 passes. The Bucs might want to limit his snaps here especially since Winston is suspened for the first two games of the regular season. | |||||||
08-24-18 | Indians -1.5 v. Royals | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
The Royals are 38-90. The Orioles and them are the worst teams in baseball by far. Cleveland versus Kansas City is an epic mismatch worth laying 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Indians. Cleveland is coming on having shored up its one weak spot, the bullpen. The Indians are 15-6 this month. Kansas City is 5-17 in August, losers of five in a row. The Indians own massive edges against the Royals in every facet, including starting pitching in a matchup of Mike Clevinger versus Brad Keller. Clevinger is better than any Kansas City pitcher yet he's just the No. 4 starter for the powerful Indians. Clevinger is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four August starts. He is 1-0 versus the Royals this season with a 1.80 ERA. Keller is a better reliever than starter. The Royals average the fewest runs per game in baseball and their bullpen is last in ERA. Cleveland has won 17 of its last 22 road games. The Indians swept the Royals in Kansas City when they visited them last month. The Royals are 18-45 during their last 63 home contests. (Stephen Nover's free Friday Play) White Sox at Tigers Under 9 minus $1.20 First off, we're not talking about two good offenses here. The White Sox rank 23rd in runs scored. They are minus Jose Abreau, who leads them in homers, RBI's and runs. The Tigers are even worse offensively rating 26th in runs. Detroit has its best starter going, Michael Fulmer. He's making his first start since going on the DL July 20 because of an oblique injury. Fulmer looked good in two minor league rehab starts not allowing a run in six innings while striking out 11. Fulmer's fastball was clocked at a season-high 98 mph. The under has cashed in six of Fulmer's last seven big league starts. Fulmer is backed by two good backend relief pitchers, Joe Jimenez and closer Shane Greene, who has 27 saves. Chicago starter Reynaldo Lopez has made four starts against the Tigers this season and has a respectable 3.24 ERA against them. The Tigers cobbled a starting lineup against the White Sox on Thursday that had five players batting less than .234. Both the weather forecast and scheduled home plate umpire are strong points for a low-scoring game, too. The wind will be blowing in at 10-12 at Comerica Park, which is a good pitcher's park. Adam Hamari is slated to be behind the plate. The Under has cashed 32 of the past 49 times (65%) the last two years when he's been the home plate umpi | |||||||
08-23-18 | Edmonton v. Hamilton -2.5 | 24-25 | Loss | -115 | 52 h 52 m | Show | |
The spot sets up well for Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats are off a bye and catch Edmonton off a 40-24 home win against Montreal this past Saturday night game. The Eskimos are at Calgary for their next game, which is a huge look-ahead spot. Edmonton has failed to cover five of the past six times when going against a sub .500 foe. The Tiger-Cats are better than their record ranking No. 2 in the league in both offense and defensive yards. They have covered seven of their last nine games following a loss. | |||||||
08-23-18 | Royals v. Rays OVER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
An opening total of 7 in a pitching matchup of Danny Duffy versus Tyler Glasnow is just too low. Duffy is coming off the DL to make the start. He's been sidelined by left shoulder impingement. The Royals are better off without the veteran lefty. Duffy has a 4.90 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. He's nothing but an innings-eater at this stage. Duffy wasn't sharp either before going on the DL allowing 12 earned runs in 11 1/3 innings during his two August starts. Glasnow has yet to reach his potential. He's mainly struggled and has a 4.10 ERA. He had a 7.69 ERA with the Pirates last season, which included 13 starts. Glasnow has only pitched past the fifth inning once this season. He is coming off a season-high pitch count. The Rays' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. | |||||||
08-22-18 | Phillies +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Maybe it was going 2-5 during their last road trip, which concluded this past Sunday. Whatever the reasons, the Nationals have hoisted up the White Flag. They did that by trading Daniel Murphy for a prospect and losing Matt Adams on waivers. The Phillies are superior to Washington. This isn't just opinion. Philadelphia has won five more games than the Nationals and lost six fewer games. They are in second-place by two games in the NL East and are 5 1/2 games ahead of the Nationals. Yet Washington is a huge favorite because of home field and a pitching matchup of Zach Eflin versus Stephen Strasburg. The Phillies would be 14-3 (82%) in Eflin's starts this season if given 1 1/2 runs. So I'm taking the Phillies with some insurance by backing them on the run line. I don't fear Strasburg. This marks his first start in more than a month and just his second appearance since June 8. Strasburg has pitched far worse at home going 2-5 with a 5.21 ERA. Washington is 1-5 in his last six home starts. | |||||||
08-21-18 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -170 | 5-2 | Loss | -170 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
In Ryu we trust especially when pitching at Dodger Stadium. The Cardinals are a hot club, but they are at a severe disadvantage in this matchup as evidenced by the large lay price on the Dodgers. Hyun-Jin Ryu made his first start since May 2 this past Wednesday. He shut out San Francisco on three hits in six innings with six strikeouts and no walks. That came at home where Ryu pitches his best. He is unscored upon at home this season in 19 innings. Ryu has a career 0.92 WHIP versus the Cardinals in three appearances. The Dodgers' bullpen received a huge lift with Kenley Jansen coming off the DL way ahead of schedule. Fed up with erratic Luke Weaver, the Cardinals are going with rookie Daniel Poncedeleon in this matchup. Poncedeleon was ranked as just the Cardinals' No. 30 minor league prospect. His ceiling is that of a fifth starter, or long reliever. He faces an LA squad that entered this week ranked No. 2 in the majors in home runs. The Dodgers have seven players with 15 or more homers, including six with 18 or more home runs. | |||||||
08-21-18 | Padres v. Rockies -167 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -167 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
The Rockies are hot and rested having won eight of their last nine. They should be refreshed to open a six-game homestand having been idle Monday. Colorado is 20-7 in its past 27 home games. San Diego is 29 games below .500. The Padres have dropped six of their last seven and are 6-14 in their last 20 visits to Coors Field. The pitching matchup heavily favors Colorado, too, in battle of lefties with Robbie Erlin opposing Tyler Anderson. San Diego is 3-9 in Erlin's last 12 starts. The Rockes are 12-2 the past 14 times they've gone against a southpaw starter. Anderson knows how to pitch at Coors Field. He has a 1.35 ERA during his past five home starts. He is 1-0 with a 2.55 ERA in three starts versus San Diego this season. The Padres have dropped 26 of 38 games when facing a lefty starter. | |||||||
08-20-18 | Indians +101 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 101 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
There is only one American League pitcher comparable to Corey Kluber. He pitches for Boston, but he's not Rick Porcello. It's Porcello, not injured Chris Sale, who opposes Kluber making the Indians a strong value play at this pick'em type opening price. Cleveland enters this marquee series winning seven of its last eight. Boston was shut out at home by Tampa Bay on Sunday. Normally I'm not looking to go against the Red Sox. But this is a huge pitching mismatch. Kluber and Porcello each have 15 victories. That is where the similarity ends, though. Kluber has a chance to win the Cy Young Award for a second straight year. He has a 2.68 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Porcello has a 4.04 ERA, which becomes 4.57 when he pitches at Fenway Park. The current Indians roster is batting a cumulative .333 lifetime versus Porcello. Cleveland is 22-8 in Kluber's past 30 road starts. The Indians have revamped their bullpen greatly improving their depth with Andrew Miller healthy and newcomers Brad Hand and Adam Cimber on board. The Indians can match any of Boston's top offensive players with Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. | |||||||
08-19-18 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Padres | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -121 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
The Padres are giving rookie pitcher Brett Kennedy a third chance. I don't think that's a good idea based on Kennedy's first two big league starts. Those came earlier this month against the Brewers and Angels. The combined results were 11 runs on 20 hits, including four homers, in nine innings giving Kennedy a fat 11.00 ERA. The Diamondbacks have won 23 of their last 34 road games and are going with Zack Grienke. Arizona is 30-10 during Greinke's past 40 starts versus sub .500 opponents. Greinke has dominated the Padres with an 11-2 record and 2.10 ERA in 21 career starts. He held them to one run in seven innings the last time he faced them on July 27. Greinke has a 2.77 daytime ERA this season. The Diamondbacks have won by more than one run in eight of their last nine victories. Getting an extra at bat being the road team is a plus and the Padres have been horrible at Petco Park losing 21 of the past 27 times there. | |||||||
08-19-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -116 | 2-1 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
The Cardinals have won 10 of their last 11 games. The Brewers are 3-8 in their last 11 games. So, why not ride the Cardinals especially at this low lay price? Why not indeed. St. Louis is playing its finest ball taking 14 of their last 17. The Brewers are in a tailspin, banged-up and have bullpen issues. Cardinals starter John Gant is proving dependable giving up only two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 1/3 innings. He has a 10-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin has a 3.83 road ERA and has a terrible history versus St. Louis going 0-7 with a 6.90 ERA in nine appearances, including eight starts. | |||||||
08-18-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
The Cardinals are on fire winning nine of their last 10 games and 13 of their past 16. They have their best pitcher going here, Miles Mikolas. The Brewers are banged-up, have dropped nine of their last 10 NL Central Division games and are pitching journeyman southpaw Wade Miley. The Brewers are the fifth different team Miley has pitched for in the last five years. St. Louis is 7-1 the past eight times facing a lefty starter. Miley has pitched surprisingly well for Milwaukee, but appears to be tailing off. He has given up five earned runs in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. During this time frame, Miley has yielded 11 hits and four walks. The Cardinals have a good vibe and momentum. The Brewers are 3-7 in their last 10 games. Mikolas has proven himself to be an elite pitcher, one of the most consistent in baseball. He hasn't given up more than four runs in a game all season. Mikolas is 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA. St. Louis is 7-1 in his last eight starts. | |||||||
08-18-18 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Some pitchers just aren't good on the road. That's certainly been the case this year for Miami's Wei-Yin Chen. He has a 10.27 away ERA. Opponents are batting .350 against him on the road. The Marlins' bullpen has imploded so Chen can't expect much help there. The Marlins have surrendered 38 runs in their last five games, an average of 7.6 runs. The Nationals are averaging 5.2 runs per game in their last seven contests. They've seen Chen twice this season. Chen has a 6.17 ERA versus Washington this year. The Marlins could do damage, too, facing rookie Jefry Rodriguez, a late fill-in for Tommy Milone. Ted Barrett is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed 68 percent of the time this season in the 22 games Barrett has been behind the plate. | |||||||
08-17-18 | Bills v. Browns OVER 38.5 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -109 | 85 h 6 m | Show |
It's somewhat below-the-radar, but one early preseason story worth noting is potential improvement in the Bills offense thanks to new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. Buffalo's offense was stale and caveman-like last season when Rick Dennison was the offensive coordinator. Daboll could be the next innovative offensive mind based on his use of formations, designs and personnel groupings to get a stagnant Bills offense, which could have the least talent of any in the NFL, to look sharp during Week 1 of the preseason last week. The Bills defeated the Panthers, 28-23. Nathan Peterman and A.J. McCarron combined for 16-of-20 passing for 235 yards. Rookie Josh Allen displayed his big arm and wasn't afraid to go deep. The Bills piled up 430 total yards. Yes, the Panthers played a vanilla game not showing the Bills anything fancy on defense. But the Bills are one of the few teams in the NFL with a wide open starting quarterback battle. Daboll has to find out who his No. 1 man is going to be so expect the Bills to continue to open up their playbook and attack downfield. Cleveland has two good quarterbacks to use, Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield. Expect Mayfield to continue to see a lot of action. The first overall pick in the draft played well in the Browns' opening preseason victory against the Giants completing 11 of 20 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns. The Browns are deep in receiving talent and the Bills are weak at linebacker, both starting-wise and depth-wise. | |||||||
08-17-18 | Giants v. Reds -115 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
The Reds aren't very good. We know that. But the Giants are 27-35 on the road and have a starting pitching disadvantage here. Yet the Giants opened as a favorite. I say the wrong team is favored. Reds starter Anthony DeSclafani is pitching his finest ball. He's given up just one run during his past two starts spanning 14 innings. He has an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. A big key for DeSlafani is learning to become a pitcher and not just a thrower. He's done an excellent job of mixing his pitches in his last two starts. At first I wasn't going to get involved in this game. But that changed when Dereck Rodriguez was scratched and Casey Kelly was named as his replacement. Rodriguez landed on the DL with a hamstring strain caused during that ridiculous altercation this past Tuesday in the Giants-Dodgers game when Yasiel Puig and Nick Hundley went at it causing a bench-clearing incident. Kelly isn't big-league starting material. He had a 4.78 ERA and 1.42 WHIP at Triple-A Sacramento this season. He has pitched just 6 1/3 innings in relief for the Giants this season. The Reds should have an excellent scouting report on him because Pat Kelly, Casey's father, is a bench coach for the Reds. The Giants are 9-19 in their last 28 away games when going against a foe with a losing home record. They also have dropped the past four games played in Cincinnati. | |||||||
08-16-18 | Diamondbacks -123 v. Padres | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
This price is low enough to back the Diamondbacks, who have 20 fewer losses than the rebuilding Padres. Arizona has won 21 of its last 31 road games. The Diamondbacks come in with a rested bullpen having been idle on Wednesday. The Diamondbacks have also won 35 of the past 52 times when meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400. Arizona starter Clay Buchholz has been very good going 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA. The righthander holds an edge against Jacob Nix, who is making only his second big league start. San Diego is 7-20 in its last 27 home games. The Padres have dropped 11 of their last 12 home games when meeting a foe with a winning road mark. | |||||||
08-16-18 | Steelers v. Packers -5.5 | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
This isn't just a normal preseason game for the Packers. It's different because Aaron Rodgers is expected to see action. He hasn't played in preseason since 2014. But Mike McCarthy needs to get Rodgers in sync with his many new receivers, including tight end Jimmy Graham. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger is out for the Steelers. He's in concussion protocol. Even if Rodgers plays only one or two series, he's very live to put up points against a vanilla Steelers defense that won't be playing all of their starters. Green Bay holds an edge in backup quarterbacks. The Packers' backup QB's combined for 356 passing yards in a 31-17 home win against the Titans last week. Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer are wagering a spirited battle for the No. 2 spot behind Rodgers. They both received plenty of NFL experience last season in starting roles. Pittsburgh backup quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Joshua Dobbs have never taken a snap in a real NFL game. Landry Jones, last year's backup, is a stiff and in danger of being cut. The Packers have home-field and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin doesn't have a strong history in preseason. Pittsburgh is 7-15 SU and ATS the past five years during preseason. | |||||||
08-15-18 | Pirates v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
Chris Archer has the potential to dominate a weak Twins offense. Jose Berrios has dominated at Target Field going 8-2 with a 2.95 ERA. The Twins had been held to four runs or fewer in seven straight eight games until scoring five runs last night. The Pirates are averaging three runs per game in their last three games. Doug Eddings is slated to be the home plate umpire. He's one of the top Under umps in baseball. The Under has cashed in 68 percent of his last 71 games behind the plate. | |||||||
08-14-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -103 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
The Cardinals have won six in a row. The Nationals are imploding losing their second straight game on a walkoff homer. Their bullpen is shot and the team has serious chemistry issues. They are seven games out of first in the NL East. St. Louis is 17-9 since Mike Shildt replaced MIke Matheny. The price is right to back the Cardinals again while fading the Nationals. St. Louis ranks sixth in the majors in slugging percentage and OPS versus lefty starters. The Cardinals are 19-15 against southpaws and draw lefty Gio Gonzalez, who is at his worst pitching on the road and at night. That's the case here. Gonzalez is 3-5 with a 4.26 ERA on the road. He's 3-6 with a 4.43 ERA in night games. Washington is 2-8 during his past 10 starts. St. Louis, which is a season-high nine games abovbe .500, is going with righthander John Gant. He's coming off a 7-1 victory against the Marlins where he gave up two hits, one walk and one run with four strikeouts in six innings. He threw just 63 pitches in that effort so he should be strong. The Nationals have lost 16 of their last 22 games when going against a righty starter. | |||||||
08-13-18 | Nationals v. Cardinals -128 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
The rejuvenated Cardinals have made a move since naming bench coach Mike Shildt to relace Mike Matheny as manager. The Cardinals have won five consecutive series and sit just two games in back of the Brewers for the second wild card spot in the National League. St. Louis is 16-9 under Shildt and have its best pitcher going here, Miles Mikolas. The Cardinals catch the Nationals traveling after playing in the lone night game on Sunday. Washington could still be reeling from blowing a two-out 3-0 ninth inning lead in a 4-3 road loss to the Cubs last night. The Nationals lost when closer Ryan Madson gave up a grand slam homer to pinch-hitter David Bote. Madson said after the game that he is suffering from back pain and it has affected his pitching. So there's a good chance Madson isn't going to be available. The Nationals already are down their two best relievers with Sean Doolittle and Kelvin Herrera both injured and unavailable. This puts tremendous pressure on Nationals starter Tommy Milone, who is a journeyman and coming off a bad start. Milone had a 4.19 ERA in the minors before getting a call-up for the Nationals. Milone was rocked for seven runs on 10 hits - including three homers - in six innings during his past start, an 8-3 home loss to the Braves this past Wednesday. Washington has lost 18 of its last 26 road games. The Nationals are down mentally, have a weak fill-in starter going and a shot bullpen. Mikolas has emerged as an elite pitcher with a 12-3 record and 2.74 ERA. Mikolas has held six of his past seven opponents to two runs or fewer. He has given up three or fewer runs in nine consecutive games. The Nationals have never faced him. Advantage Mikolas. Washington has struggled at Busch Stadium, too, losing 23 of the last 31 times there. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,325 |
Dan Kaiser | $1,247 |
Jesse Schule | $666 |
Mike Lundin | $633 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Jim Feist | $402 |
Marc Lawrence | $400 |
Big Al McMordie | $325 |
AAA Sports | $316 |
Tom Macrina | $290 |