Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-15-18 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 212.5 | 98-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
This total has been steamed down low enough where there is value on the Over. Victor Oladipo is a legitimate All-Star averaging 23.1 points. Darren Collison is an underrated 3-point shooting point guard. Cleveland is a bottom-five defensive team. The Cavaliers don't have the defensive personnel to transform themselves even though the intensity level will be raised since this is the playoffs. Kevin Love is extremely weak defensively in the middle. LeBron James' presecence assures Cleveland will get its share of points. James had a tremendous season even by his Hall of Fame standards averaging 27.5 points and 9.1 assists while shooting 54.2 percent from the floor. | |||||||
04-14-18 | Sharks v. Ducks -131 | 3-2 | Loss | -131 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
The Ducks picked a bad time to lay a stinker at home after finishing the regular season 10-1-1 in their last 12 games. San Jose rolled past Anaheim, 3-0, this past Thursday. Anaheim has won seven of the last eight times when coming off a loss of three or more goals. I believe the Ducks bounce back again at home in Game 2 today. The Ducks' top line of Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry can't play worse than they did in Game 1. I also don't see the Ducks committing as many foolish penalties even though their intensity level should be way up. Anaheim has won 20 of its last 27 home games, including seven of its past eight. The Sharks are past their prime. | |||||||
04-14-18 | Heat +7 v. 76ers | Top | 103-130 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
The 76ers are the hottest team in the NBA winners of 16 games in a row. But they are vulnerable now that it's playoff time. How's that? Let's take a closer look. Center Joel Embiid is arguably Philly's most valuable player depending on how you feel about Ben Simmons. Certainly Embiid is the 76ers' best big man. He has missed the past eight games because of an orbital fracture and is not expected to play in this Game 1. The 76ers have won all eight of those games. However, six of those victories were against non-playoff opponents. No Embiid means the Heat have the best big man on the floor in Hassan Whiteside. The Heat are healthy as All-Star point guard Goran Dragic is expected to play after sitting out Wednesday's victory against the Raptors with a bruised knee. Philadelphia last made the playoffs in 2012. Brett Brown has never coached a postseason game in the NBA. The Heat are the more experienced team, battle tested, have the stronger bench and one of the top coaches in the league, Erik Spoelstra. The Heat have defense and depth. That can trump first-string talent, an edge the 76ers hold. Playoff basketball is different than the regular season something the 76ers have not experienced. Miami is the type of blue-collar, experienced, well-coached team that can take advantage of the 76ers' youth and total lack of playoff experience. All of the pressure is on the 76ers especially being at home. They are in uncharted waters and being asked to cover a mid-range point spread number. This is a lot of points for Philly to be laying. No team in the NBA hangs around as much as the Heat do. They were involved in games with a five-point differential with fewer than five minutes to play in regulation more than any other team in the league. Miami and Philadelphia met four times during the regular season. The 76ers won the first two, the Heat captured the last two. The Heat outscored the 76ers by two points during the four games. There is no reason why this shouldn't be another close game, too. | |||||||
04-14-18 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 212 | 103-130 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
This should be a defensive battle just based on face value. The Heat gave up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA. The 76ers ranked first in defensive field goal percentge. There are key elements that should make this even more of a defensive game, too. The 76ers are playing in the postseason for the first time since 2012. They are very talented, but very young. Nerves and inexperience could hurt their offense. Joel Embiid isn't likley to play. If he does, he'll be rusty having missed the last eight games because of an orbital fracture. The 76ers lose a large chunk of their inside offense without Embiid. Both teams rebound well so there shouldn't be many second-chance points. Miami is a bottom-eight scoring team. The Heat are a hard-nosed defensive team that lacks a superstar scorer. This figures to be a rugged half-court game typical of playoff basketball in the NBA. | |||||||
04-14-18 | Brewers +106 v. Mets | 5-1 | Win | 106 | 15 h 46 m | Show | |
The Brewers are showing signs of turning around their offense. I like Milwaukee's Chase Anderson over Matt Harvey so the pitching matchup is in Milwaukee's favor. The Brewers are 17-8 the past 25 times going against a right-handed starter and have defeated the Mets seven of the last 10 times despite losing by one run in the opening game of the series on Friday. The Mets are down to their third-string catcher. That's going to catch up to them real fast. | |||||||
04-14-18 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 208.5 | 92-113 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show | |
To understand why Under should work here there's a need to clear up two misconceptions. Misconception No. 1: The Spurs aren't a good defensive team without Kawhi Leonard. Not true. They surrendered the fewest points per game in the league were fourth in 3-point defense and fourth in overall defensive efficiency. San Antonio is a disciplined, well-coached team that doesn't mess up its defensive assignments. Misconception No. 2: The Warriors are all about offense. Even though they won't have injured Stephen Curry, they have tremendous offensive players in Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson. This isn't entirely true. Druant, Thompson and especially Green also are very good defensively. Durant averaged the seventh-most blocks per game in the league. Reserve Andre Iguodala is a top-notch defensive player, too. Golden State mailed in its last four games knowing it wasn't moving in or out of the No. 2 seed. The Warriors are laying in the weeds defensively. Their offense isn't as potent minus Curry. Defense is their winning ticket. Aside from LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs lack a consistent scorer. And Green will be watching Aldridge. These rivals know each other well having met in the Western Conference championship round last season. Note an early start time, too, which is a plus for the Under. | |||||||
04-13-18 | A's v. Mariners +110 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Throwing at pitcher-friendly Safeco Field agrees with Mike Leake. He is 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA in five career starts at Safeco since coming to the Mariners last season. Leake is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA this season. Some perceive Leake as just an innings-eater. I believe he's better than that especially when pitching in Seattle. The Mariners have a dynamite speed offense that should be even better with the possibility of Nelson Cruz and Ben Gamel returning today from injuries. The A's should not have opened a road favorite here. Oakland starter Andrew Triggs has an 8.53 ERA in three appearances against Seattle, including two starts. Seattle has defeated Oakland in 12 of the last 19 meetings, winning seven of the last 10 at Safeco Field. | |||||||
04-13-18 | Wild +175 v. Jets | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
The Jets got past the Wild, 3-2, in Wednesday's Game 1 playoff series opener. The Wild didn't play that well, yet still lost by just one goal. Minnesota is the more experienced playoff team and is capable of stepping up. I see that happening here. The Jets may not have Mathieu Perrault. They already are without center Matt Hendricks and defensemen Toby Enstrom and Dmitry Kulikov. At this huge plus price, the veteran Wild are worth backing. | |||||||
04-13-18 | Brewers v. Mets OVER 8.5 | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
It shouldn't be too difficult for each of these teams to produce at least four runs apiece. The wind is blowing out at 12-14 mph and the pitching matchup is Zach Davies versus Steven Matz. Davies isn't a good pitcher. He has a 5.40 ERA this season and a 4.22 career ERA against the Mets in four all-time starts. The Brewers' bullpen has become unreliable with closer Corey Knebel out with a hamstring injury. Matz has yet to live up to his potential. He has been disappointing for more than a year now. He has a 4.15 ERA in two career outtings against Milwaukee. | |||||||
04-13-18 | Rockies v. Nationals OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
A lackluster pitching matchup of Kyle Freeland versus Tanner Roark on a warm, breezy day in Washington should produce double-digit runs given the quality of each team's offense. Freeland is a decent day pitcher at home. This is a night game in Washington. So expect bad things from Freeland, who has a 5.56 ERA and been stung for four home runs in two starts. Freeland has a 4.82 career road ERA in 13 away starts. Roark is a bottom of the rotation type starter who doesn't miss many bats. He has a 4.50 ERA this season and a 4.91 career ERA in three appearances against the Rockies, including two starts. Hitters should get a boost with the wind blowing out at 17 mph. | |||||||
04-13-18 | Flyers v. Penguins OVER 6 | 5-1 | Push | 0 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
The Penguins' offense and the Flyers' weak goaltending is an excellent formula for more than six goals to be produced. The Penguins took care of the Over just by themselves during Wednesday's Game 1 of this series scoring seven goals. That was the 19th time in their last 26 games, the Penguins have gone Over. Prior to Wednesday's game, the Flyers had scored 17 goals in their last four games. So I expect the Flyers to contribute more to their share of the offense today. They did actually fire off more shots than Pittsburgh in Game 1. The Penguins' offense, though, remains in high gear. Pittsburgh has produced four or more goals in five of its last six games. The Flyers lack the defense and goalies to keep Pittsburgh's high flying offense in check. | |||||||
04-12-18 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 4-3 | Win | 105 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
The Capitals are a top-10 scoring team. They scored three or more goals in seven of their last eight games. Alex Ovechkin led the NHL with 49 goals, John Carlson was the top-point producing defeseman and Evgeny Kuznetsov piled up 28 points during the final 18 games. So I have full confidence the Capitals will hold up their offensive end. I'm not worried about the layoff as the Over has cashed nine of the last 10 times Washington has played with three or more days rest. I'm also not concerned about Sergei Bobrovsky in net for Columbus. He's been a lot better during the regular season than in the playoffs where he's 3-10 with a 3.63 GAA and .887 save percentage. The Blue Jackets should hold up their end, too. They led the NHL in scoring during the final 28 games averaging 3.6 goals during this span. Only three times in their last 17 games have the Blue Jackets failed to produce a minimum of three goals per game. In a bit of a surprise, the Capitals are going with Philipp Grubauer in net instead of Braden Holtby. Grubauer is untested in Stanley Cup action having played less than 80 minutes of playoff hockey. | |||||||
04-12-18 | Devils v. Lightning OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 67 h 27 m | Show |
Nice job by the Devils to make the Stanley Cup playoffs this season after finishing with the worst record in the NHL last year. The Devils are heavy underdogs here so they are playing on house money. New Jersey is young and has fast skaters. All four of Devils' lines possess speed. The Devils went 3-0 against Tampa Bay this season. So they aren't going to alter their game and become grinders. Taylor Hall is a major scoring threat. The Devils are going to play fast, which is excellent for the Over. The Over has cashed in eight of New Jersey's last 11 games with six of those Over games lined at 6 and the other Overs lined at 5 1/2. The Lightning's defense has become broken. Tampa Bay has allowed three or more goals in 17 of its past 22 games. The Lightning rank 28th in penalty killing, while the Devils rank among the top 10 in power play goals. Tampa Bay is about offense not defense. Not only were the Lightning the No. 1 scoring team in the NHL, but they scored the most 5-on-5 goals since the 2009-10 Capitals. Keith Kinkaid has emerged as the Devils' No. 1 goalie with Cory Schneider battling a groin injury. Kinkaid played well down the stretch, but has zero playoff experience. | |||||||
04-12-18 | Cardinals -142 v. Reds | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
Cardinals minus $1.45 at Reds Early money has steamed up the Cardinals and I can understand why. It's the right move as the Reds are as bad as ever under Bryan Price and Michael Wacha has owned Cincinnati. The Reds are on their way to a fourth straight 90-loss season - if not 100 losses - with the worst record in the majors at 2-9. Price is dead man walking. It's amazing the Red have stuck with him as long as they have. St. Louis is 11-1 versus the Reds in Wacha's 12 starts. Wacha has a 2.85 lifetime ERA against Cincinnat. Wacha's has a 2.20 ERA in 41 innings pitching in Cincinnati. That's really impressive considering what a strong hitter's park that Great American Ball Park is. The Cardinals' bats should come alive there especially facing Sal Romano, perhaps the worst of the Reds' weak starting pitching. Romano has a 4.59 career ERA in 18 starts and has more walks than strikeouts this season. | |||||||
04-11-18 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Giants | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
I find excellent value on the Diamondbacks here. Arizona is the superior team and should have a huge starting pitching mismatch. Robbie Ray is a "B" level pitcher who is elite status when it comes to strikeouts. He's 4-1 career-wise versus the Giants with a 2.53 ERA in eight starts. This includes a 3-1 mark and 1.46 ERA in four career starts at San Francisco. , The Giants are going with untested Andrew Suarez, who only was called up due to Johnny Cueto going on the DL. The Diamondbacks have plenty of right-handed hitters who can hurt Suarez, including Paul Goldschmidt who got back on track last night. | |||||||
04-10-18 | A's v. Dodgers -121 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Both teams have started slow. In the case of the Dodgers they will get things turned around. I doubt the A's can do that because they aren't a very good team. Their starting pitching and bullpen are very unreliable. Oakland is hurt more than the Dodgers, too, by not having a DH since this game is at Dodgers Stadium. The A's outfield depth is being tested with Chad Pinder and Boog Powell going on the DL. This is a battle of lefties - Sean Manaea versus Hyun-Jin Ryu. I like Ryu when he pitches at home where historically he has been much better than on the road. Oakland has lost 21 of its last 30 interleague games. The A's have lost 78 percent of their past 65 road games, too, when going against a southpaw starter. The Dodgers are a dominant 25-10 during their last 35 interleague home games. | |||||||
04-09-18 | Diamondbacks v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This total is too short. Unlike many other games, this is a matchup where the weather is nice. There's also a 10-12 mph wind blowing out. Arizona has one of the best offenses in the National League. The Diamondbacks rank seventh in runs scored. They draw Derek Holland and a revamped - and largely untested - San Francisco bullpen that lacks a reliable closer. Holland struggled with the White Sox during the second half of last year going 2-5 with an 8.93 ERA during his final 12 appearances that included nine starts. He had a 4.05 spring training ERA and last pitched on March 31 so he figures to be rusty. Zack Godley is showing a lot of promise, but he's still a middle-of-the-rotation type pitcher and has a bad history against the Giants with a 7.84 lifetime ERA in four appearances versus San Francisco. | |||||||
04-09-18 | Kings +14.5 v. Spurs | 85-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
The Spurs aren't dominant like they have been in the past. San Antonio isn't likely to blow out the Kings especially given the circumstances. The Kings are a respectable 5-7 during their past 12 games. Only twice during these last dozen games have the Kings lost by more than 11 points. They are 11-5 ATS in their past 16 away contests. The Spurs just beat the Trail Blazers two days ago and have a much bigger game on deck Wednesday playing at the Pelicans. San Antonio has failed to cover four of the last five times against foes with a road win percentage of less than .400. The goal for the Spurs is to win this game, not go balls-out to cover a huge margin. San Antonio has been playing at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA during the last 10 games. So that makes covering this big number even more difficult. | |||||||
04-09-18 | Grizzlies v. Wolves -15 | 94-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Even if they weren't in must-win mode to try to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004, the Timberwolves would have great incentive to beat Memphis. The Grizzlies are 2-0 versus Minnesota this season. Memphis embarrassed Minnesota, 101-93, as 13-point road 'dogs when the teams last met on March 26. Talent-wise, the Timberwolves are a playoff team. But if they miss out they can blame two factors - Jimmy Butler missing 17 games with a knee injury and losing twice to the Grizzlies, who possess the second-worst record in the NBA. Butler returned this past Friday. His presence helped spark the Timberwolves to an easy 113-96 road win. Minnesota hasn't played since having the weekend off to rest and prepare for this matchup. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are in a rare flat spot. They whipped the Pistons, 130-117, on Sunday in their final home game of the season. That was the Grizzlies' best offensive game of the season. | |||||||
04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Pitching, weather, home plate umpire and fair line value all make this a strong Under play. Baseball started its season too early this year. This is the Sunday night ESPN game and it's another matchup that is going to be affected by tough weather conditions with temperatures in the 40's and wind blowing in at around 12-14 mph. Matt Harvey is below-the-radar right now. He's poised for a comeback season. He held the Phillies - who just scored 20 ruins in their last game - scoreless in five innings during his first start allowing only one hit. Perhaps most impressive about that performance was that Harvey didn't have his best stuff. Tanner Roark was sharp, too, in his first start holding the Braves to one run on four hits and a walk while going seven innings. Roark has an excellent history versus the Mets with a 7-2 mark and 2.72 ERA in 17 appearances, including 11 starts. Both teams have solid bullpen depth and the pitchers will be aided by home plate umpire Mark Ripperger, who has a large strike zone. | |||||||
04-08-18 | Pistons v. Grizzlies +6.5 | 117-130 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
The Pistons have no special incentive here being out of the playoffs. They will be without injured Blake Griffin, too. This is Memphis' final home game of the season. The Grizzlies are in danger of finishing with their worst record since relocating to Memphis. Despite this horrendous season, the Grizzlies have played to nearly 90 percent capacity in their home games. The Grizzlies conclude their season with road games against the Timberwolves and Thunder. Those are likely losses. So this is the Grizzlies' best chance to win a game before the season ends. I believe they will come out hard for their loyal home fans and play hard. Marc Gasol can match Andre Drummond. | |||||||
04-08-18 | Braves v. Rockies -133 | 4-0 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
The Braves have lost 13 of their last 16 games at Coors Field. Look for that trend to continue here in a pitching matchup of Sean Newcomb versus Kyle Freeland. Newcomb is a young power pitcher with command issues. Walking batters does not go well especially at Coors Field. Newcomb had a 1.57 WHIP last season and was wild again in his first start this season giving up five earned runs on five hits and four walks in an 8-1 loss to the Nationals this past Monday. Newcomb has a 5.91 ERA in two career starts against Colorado. Freeland is at his best during day games at Coors Field with a 6-3 mark and 2.55 ERA in those circumstances. That's the situation here. Colorado is tough at home and has the better bullpen moreso now with Wade Davis in the closer role. | |||||||
04-08-18 | Diamondbacks +140 v. Cardinals | 4-1 | Win | 140 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Nothing against Cardinals pitcher Luke Weaver. I like him. But I have to price enforce here because this line is too high providing value for Arizona. Taijuan Walker is a good young pitcher, too, with upside. The Diamondbacks are the better team. They are off to a 6-2 start this season despite Paul Goldschmidt batting only .115. | |||||||
04-07-18 | Blue Jackets +106 v. Predators | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
This game really carries no weight for the Predators. They've clinched home ice throughout the playoffs so they can go on cruise control here. Not so with the Blue Jackets. This is an important matchup for them regarding playoff seeding. As added motivation, the Blue Jackets also have double revenge. | |||||||
04-07-18 | Padres v. Astros -1.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a kill spot for the Astros following their surprising 3-1 home loss to the Padres on Friday. The Astros may have the best lineup in baseball. The Padres may have the worst. Gerrit Cole had a strong Houston debut and dominated the Padres when he was in the NL going 4-2 with a 1.96 ERA in six career starts versus them. Padres starter Bryan Mitchell has some upside, but he's not ready for the majors yet. He had a rough season debut and now draws the Astros on the road. San Diego's best relievers carry a high fatigue rating. This isn't going to be pretty. | |||||||
04-07-18 | Cubs -149 v. Brewers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Minus closer Corey Knebel and probably their best all-around player, outfielder ChristianYelich, the Brewers upset the Cubs, 5-4, on Friday scoring a run in the ninth inning to win it. Kudos to the Brewers, but I don't see them repeating that feat. Their lineup isn't as good as the Cubs even if Anthony Rizzo has to sit out a second straight game. The pitching matchup of Yu Darvish against Zach Davies and the bullpens also favor Chicago. I want the Cubs going for me here off their irritating loss. | |||||||
04-07-18 | Nuggets v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | 134-115 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
This matchup has tremendous playoff ramifications in the Western Conference. A loss eliminates the Clippers. So I'm expecting an intesnse matchup with a lot of defensive emphasis. Note this is an early start, too. That's a plus for the Under. The Nuggets have slowed things down considerably as the long season and pressure to make the playoffs fully kicks in. This marks Denver's third game in five days. The Nuggets have gone Under by 11 and 23 points during their last two games with the posted total on those games in this range. Denver has been without its leading scorer, Gary Harris. | |||||||
04-06-18 | A's v. Angels OVER 9 | 9-13 | Win | 105 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
This total should be double-digits given a starting pitching matchup of Daniel Gossett versus Parker Bridwell. Gossett is one of the worst starters in the league. Opponents batted .306 against him last season. Gossett started off poorly this season giving up four runs on six hits to the Angels in six innings. Now the Angels get another look at Gossett just a week later. The A's are a much more dangerous offensive team away from spacious Oakland Coliseum. They draw Bridwell, who they shelled twice when they faced him last season. Bridwell was ticketed for the minors. He's only up pitching in this game because Matt Shoemaker suffered a strained right forearm and had to go on the DL. These teams have a history of going Over with the high side cashing seven of the past nine times. The Over is 22-7-1 during the past 30 times they've met in LA. | |||||||
04-06-18 | Cubs -138 v. Brewers | 4-5 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Not only do the Cubs have a monster pitching edge, but they catch the Brewerrs likely without two of its best players. Closer Corey Knebel definitely is out for Milwaukee after suffering a hamstring injury on Thursday and Christian Yelich, the Brewers' top all-around player, is likely out, too, as he deals with an oblique injury. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks is one of the most depenable starters in baseball. His career ERA of 2.93 is second only to Clayton Kershaw among active pitchers with 75 or more starts. Hendricks has dominated the Brewers at Miller Park, too, with a 4-1 career mark and 2.31 ERA there. Brandon Woodruff will be making just his seventh big league start. Milwaukee is 0-5 in Woodruff's home starts. Woodruff has some potential, but remains a work-in-progress and could get moved to the bullpen depending on how things play out with Knebel's injury. | |||||||
04-06-18 | Heat v. Knicks +9 | 98-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
I understand the Knicks are a hard sell right now. But Miami isn't very good on the road and this is a flat spot for the Heat, while the Knicks should be fired-up after their dreadful 97-73 home loss to the Magic from Tuesday. The worst thing you can say about an NBA team is that it quit. The Knicks have heard that criticism for three days now following that defeat to Orlando. I expect the Knicks to rally around their coach, Jeff Hornacek, and to play hard here. New York also has short revenge for a stinging 119-98 road loss to Miami on March 21. The Knicks own a winning home ATS mark. Trey Burke is playing his best ball since coming to the NBA and Emmanuel Mudiay isn't playing quite as many minutes. Those are all positive factors for the Knicks. But a lot of this handicap is going against the Heat. The Heat just clinched a playoff spot by virtue of two consecutive victories against the Hawks. It's going to be difficult for Miami to get motivated to face another lottery opponent with its major goal - making the playoffs after missing last season - accomplished. Miami has won just two of its past 13 road contests. Those victories were against the Hawks and Lakers by one point. Among the Heat's road losses during this span was a defeat to the Kings. So the Knicks are very much a live 'dog here. | |||||||
04-06-18 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 6 | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
The Over has cashed in 74 percent of the Penguins' last 31 games. Pitt has gone Over in nine of its last 11 games. The Penguins are in full attack mode and I don't see the Senators, with their 30th-ranked defense, behind able to contain them. | |||||||
04-06-18 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 224 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Cleveland got past Washington, 119-115, last night. Standing-wise that game was important because it put the Cavaliers one-half game ahead of the 76ers for third-place seending in the Eastern Conference. Handicapping-wise that game was important, too, because it sets into play several factors: The Cavaliers can't go at such a fast tempo because of fatigue. That's been shown in the Under cashing in 11 of the Cavaliers' last 12 games when Cleveland has played with zero rest. The Cavaliers also are likely to be short-handed at point guard with George Hill and Jose Calderon not expected to play. If this game gets away from the Cavaliers, there's the possibility LeBron James could see fewer minutes than normal. The importance of this matchup - with the winner gaining sole possession of the No. 3 seed - should ensure an intense, playoff-like type atmosphere and defense. The 76ers are underrated defensively. Going by the last 10 games, the 76ers would rank first in defensive efficiency. | |||||||
04-05-18 | Nets +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Unlike other lottery teams, the Nets have no incentive to tank being without a No. 1 draft pick. That usually ensures a good effort from the Nets. It didn't happen in their last game, tnough. Brooklyn was blown out by sizzling Philadelphia, 121-95. Look for a much stronger game from the Nets following that embarrassing road loss. Going back to mid-March, the Nets would be 8-2 ATS if given more than seve points. Brooklyn has covered seven of its past eight away matchups. The Bucks are in letdown mode off a highly-satisfying home victory against the Celtics two days ago and having just clinched a playoff spot when the Pistons lost last night. Now that the Bucks are officially in the playoffs, they might reduce the minutes of their starters to get them ready for the post-season. That could mean Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has been dealing with assorted minor injuries. The spot is dangerous for the Bucks and they have not been good in this type of role either. Milwaukee is 2-11 in its last 13 home games and 2-7 ATS the past nine times hosting a sub .500 opponent. | |||||||
04-05-18 | Bruins v. Panthers UNDER 6 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Florida is trying its best to keep alive its playoff hopes. Thanks to stellar goaltending from Roberto Luongo, the Panthers held off Nashville, 2-1, at home on Tuesday. The Panthers are 12-4-1 to the Under in their last 17 home games. This marks the Panthers' third game in four days and fourth in six so look for a tight-checking, conservative game from Florida. Boston was shut out in its last two games by Tampa Bay two days ago. The Lightning had allowed at least three goals per game in six of its last seven games previous to that. Tuukka Rask has been on his game for Boston. He had surrendered two goals or fewer in four straight games before yielding four to the Lightning, the highest-scoring team in the league. Florida ranks 15th in scoring. The Panthers haven't broken the three-goal barrier in their last six games. I see Rask coming back with a strong performance against a much weaker offense than he last faced. The Under has cashed the past four times these teams have met in Florida. Boston and Florida play again Sunday in a make-up game from Jan. 4. So neither team likely will want to show too much with such a short turnaround before playing each other again, which is another plus for the Under. | |||||||
04-05-18 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Arizona has some outstanding hitters. The Diamondbacks are fifth in runs. St. Louis is underrated offensively. The Cardinals rank No. 2 in homers. The Cardinals have power from top to bottom as evidenced by eight different players hitting at least one home run this season. The pitching matchup is Robbie Ray versus Adam Wainwright. Ray is off a bad first outing giving up six earned runs in five innings, including three homers, against the Rockies. Ray has a 6.52 ERA in three lifetime starts against the Cardinals. Ray is being priced like an elite pitcher with this low total. He's not. Ray is a big strikeout pitcher, but he's not "A" level. Wainwright is getting the start as more of a ceremonial gesture since this is the Cardinals' first home game of the season. The 36-year-old likely is washed-up. He had a 5.11 earned run average and 1.50 WHIP last season. The weather is good for the hitters with temperatures in the mid-to-high 50's and wind blowing out to left at 12-14, which is particularly bad news for Ray being a lefty. | |||||||
04-04-18 | Senators v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Ottawa is 1-8 in its last nine games. Buffalo is 3-8 in its last 11 games. Both teams are frustrated with nothing to play for so expect a wide-open game. The Sabres have permitted at least three goals in nine of their last 10 games. They are going with backup Chad Johnson in goal. He's given up an average of four goals during his past three starts. Buffalo, though, should do a lot of scoring damage against the Senators' 30th-ranked defense. The Sabres are averaging 3.7 goals in their last four games. | |||||||
04-04-18 | Dodgers -118 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
I like the Dodgers to salvage the final game of this series against the Diamondbacks after losing with Clayton Kershaw last night. Arizona suffered a key loss in that game, though, with third baseman Jake Lamb suffering a shoulder injury. I'm a fan of Dodgers starter Alex Wood. Not so with Arizona starter Patrick Corbin. Wood was dominant last season going 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA holding opposing batters to a .217 average. Wood opened this season in great style permitting only one hit in eight scorelessinnings against the Giants this past Friday. He was 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts versus Arizona last season with 23 strikeouts in 21 innings. Corbin has shown flashes, but never really has proven he can be trusted. The southpaw has struggled versus the Dodgers with a 3-9 lifetime mark and 4.42 ERA in 16 appearances, including 14 starts. He had a 5.06 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers last season. LA is 9-3 in Wood's past 12 away outings and has won 14 of the past 18 times when drawing a lefty starter on the road. | |||||||
04-03-18 | Spurs -118 v. Clippers | 110-113 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
The Spurs are 2-0 versus the Clippers this season having won by an average of 15.5 points. Now the Spurs are playing better than ever going 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 games. San Antonio's last victory came against the Rockets, perhaps the best team in the NBA, by a 100-83 count this past Sunday. LaMarcus Aldridge is having a tremendous season. But a big takeaway from the Rockets game was how well Rudy Gay played for San Antonio. Gay is a huge plus if healthy. The Clippers are in must-win mode. The Spurs, though, are playing hard for playoff seeding. The Clippers always have been fragile mentally and they could be through after blowing a 16-point lead at home in their last game, a 111-104 loss to the Pacers this past Sunday. That dropped the Clippers' home ATS mark to 4-10 in their last 14 games at Staples Center. Much is made of the Spurs not having Kawhi Leonard. However, the Clippers have had a cluster injury problem at guard. They are down Patrick Beverley, Avery Bradley, Milos Teodosic and Jawun Evans. Teodosic is a very underrated player. | |||||||
04-03-18 | Indians +129 v. Angels | 2-13 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
The Indians have beaten the Angels 16 of the past 17 times, including the last 12. I'm going to ride that streak especially since the Indians are underdogs. The oddsmaker is putting too much stock in Garrett Richards, who remains on the comeback trail. Richards has made just 12 starts the past two seasons due to injuries. Richards wasn't sharp in his opener against the A's, a much inferior team compared to the Indians. Richards has a 4.40 career ERA against the Indians in 14 1/3 innings. Cleveland may be the best team in baseball. The Indians are going with Josh Tomlin, who draws very little respect. Tomlin, though, doesn't walk batters and is plus 11 wins during his career with the Indians. He's not sexy, but he is reliable. That's all the Indians need since they possess the much stronger bullpen. | |||||||
04-03-18 | Golden Knights v. Canucks +160 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
The expansion Golden Knights have been the story of the year in the NHL becoming the first NHL expansion team to reach the playoffs. Las Vegas accomplished this in style clinching the Pacific Division in their last game, a home victory against San Jose this past Saturday. So not only is this a letdown spot for the Golden Knights, who could be resting players, but it's an emotional situation for the home 'dog Canucks. Vancouver is out of the playoffs. But to their credit, the Canucks continue to play hard. They've won three in a row - all at home. Now the Canucks should be super psyched for tonight's game because it's the first game following yesterday's announcement that Daniel and Henrik Sedin are going to retire at the end of the season. Vancouver's players should be highly-charged because of this with a large crowd expected in an electric type atmosphere for the much revered Sedin twins. Las Vegas hasn't been playing that well either going a mediocre 3-3 in its last six games. The Golden Knights have been without injured David Perron and Reilly Smith. Those are the Golden Knights' third and fourth-leading point producers, respectively. | |||||||
04-03-18 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | 102-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
The Celtics own the top point spread mark in the NBA. Boston has won six in a row and is just two games behind Toronto for the No. 1 seed in the East after an impressive 110-99 home win against the Raptors this past Saturday. Boston has been idle since that victory while the Bucks are playing for the fourth time in six days. This is the Bucks' first game back home after being on the West Coast for four games. That trip finished Sunday night. The Celtics are without Kyrie Irving. But they've been getting strong play from Jayston Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Terry Rozier. The Celtics have a deep bench and are much better coached than Milwaukee. The Bucks have one of the weak home court floors. Milwaukee has covered only 28 percent of its last 31 games at Bradley Center. | |||||||
04-03-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The price is right to back the Brewers, who have made themselves a strong playoff contender. Milwaukee is home and has its best starting pitcher going, Chase Anderson. Anderson still is a bit below the radar. He's a late bloomer who broke through last season going 12-4 with a 2.74 ERA. This includes a 2-0 mark and 3.04 ERA in four starts versus the Cardinals. Anderson was sharp against the Padres in his first start this season throwing six scoreless innings with six strikeouts and only one hit allowed. The Cardinals are countering with righty Jack Flaherty, their No. 5 starter who soon could be departing back to the minors when Adam Wainwright is ready to pitch. Flaherty likely needs more seasoning. He had a 4.50 ERA in five spring training outings. The Brewers got a look at him late last season getting to Flaherty for four fours on five hits in five innings on Oct. 1. The Brewers are 13-5 in their last 18 games versus righty starters going back to last season. | |||||||
04-02-18 | Avalanche v. Kings -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 167 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
The Kings are trying to hold off the Avalanche for the first wild-card spot in the West. They are in a great spot to succeed. LA has been idle since losing a 2-1 road game to the Ducks this past Friday. The Avalanche carries a much higher fatigue rating in action for the third time in four days and second time in two days after suffering a tough 4-3 overtime road loss to the Ducks last night. Colorado relies on its power play unit a lot. However, the Kings have the highest percentage rating of killing penalties. They haven't allowed a power play goal during their last eight games spanning 20 power play attempts. The Avalanche has lost in five of their last six visits to LA. | |||||||
04-02-18 | Indians -113 v. Angels | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
It's no secret why the Indians have defeated the Angels 11 times in a row and 15 of the last 16. The Indians almost always have the superior pitcher going, have a stronger offense and the better bullpen. That's the case again in this matchup where the price is low enough to get involved with Cleveland. I like to target promising pitchers with upside who are below the radar where you don't have to pay an unfair price to back them. Mike Clevinger fits that description. Clevinger was outstanding on the road last season going 7-2 with a 2.26 ERA. He pitches with extra motivation against the Angels, the team where he spent his first three years after being drafted in 2011. Clevinger came on very strong at the end of last season posting a sub-1.00 ERA during his last 27 1/3 innings. The Angels' closer situation is unsettled and they have JC Ramirez starting. Ramirez is a borderline starter who doesn't have Clevinger's skill and talent set. Ramirez is on the comeback trail from an elbow injury that cost him the final six weeks of last year. He had a 5.40 ERA during spring training. | |||||||
04-02-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +103 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 103 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Fear not the Dodgers when they play the Diamondbacks during the regular season. Arizona has won the last six times and the games haven't been close with the Diamondbacks outscoring LA by 27 runs during this span. I see the Diamondbacks making it seven straight regular season wins against the Dodgers today in a pitching matchup of lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu versus Taijuan Walker. Ryu is the Dodgers' No. 5 starter, who is much more effective whe pitching at Dodger Stadium. LA has lost in 11 of his last 15 road starts. Arizona is one of the better teams in the NL. Ryu is 1-10 during his last 11 road outings versus above .500 teams. The Diamondbacks, with Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Polllock, are very tough against southpaws. Arizona was 25-17 versus lefties last season and already 1-0 this year. The Diamondbacks drew Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson two games ago and smashed him for seven runs in 2 1/3 innings. Walker not only is a decent pitcher, but he is a breakout candidate having not reached his full potential yet. He posted a 3.32 ERA during the second half last season and was 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three regular season starts against the Dodgers last year. Ryu was 0-1 in two starts against Arizona last season. He allowed 19 baserunners in 10 innings and surrendered three homers during his lone Chase Field appearance last year. The Diamondbacks were idle on Sunday while the Dodgers had to play in the Sunday night game. So the scheduling dynamics are on Arizona's side. | |||||||
04-01-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -4 | 125-128 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Milwaukee and Denver each are 41-35. The Nuggets, though, have the disadvantage of being in the Western Conference so they are two games out of the last playoff spot. This is must-win time for them. Denver is much stronger at home going 27-10 at Pepsi Center compared to 14-25 on the road. The Bucks are five games up on the Pistons for the last spot in the Eastern Conference. I don't see the Bucks being as intense as the Nuggets here. This the Bucks' fourth road game in six days and third game in four days. They are coming off consecutive victores versus the Warriors and Lakers in overtime. The Bucks return home after this game so a letdown very much could be in store. The Bucks are just 7-14 ATS in their last 21 games despite winning their last two games. | |||||||
04-01-18 | Pistons -108 v. Nets | Top | 108-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
The Pistons aren't dead yet. Detroit is 6-1 in its last seven games with a four-game win streak. The Pistons are a long shot to make the postseason, but they still are alive - unless they lose this game. I don't see that happening. Blake Griffin is out, but Reggie Jackson has returned from injury helping to breath life into Detroit. Andre Drummond is in line for a monster game. He's averaging 15.3 points and 20 rebounds per game in three games against the Nets this season. The Nets allowed Dwight Howard to produce 32 points and 30 rebounds against them less than two weeks ago. The Nets just upset the Heat, 110-109, in overtime on the road last night for their second consecutive victory. They haven't won three games in a row all season. The Nets exerted tremendous energy in coming back from 14 points down to stun the Heat. Detroit also played last night, defeating the Knicks. So it's the Pistons who actually have the shorter distance to travel than the Nets, who are flying in from South Florida. | |||||||
04-01-18 | Pacers v. Clippers UNDER 213.5 | 111-104 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Both teams are involved in playoff seeding so there should be defensive intensity. Note the daytime start so that's another plus for the Under. Although this is a non-conference matchup, these two teams just played one another eight days ago. The Pacers won 109-104. So there is some familiarity. The Clippers have showed defensive improvement lately giving up an average of 102 points in their last four games. The Pacers are perceived by some as a high scoring team because of Victor Oladipo. But they actually are a below-averaging scoring club and have played at the slowest tempo in the league during the past three weeks. | |||||||
04-01-18 | Cardinals -135 v. Mets | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
It's just the start of the season, but already the Cardinals are frustrated losing their first two games to the Mets. St. Louis is the better team and the Cardinals have the superior starting pitcher going here. So I see them avoiding a sweep. Luke Weaver showed a lot of promise last season and he was impressive during spring training allowing only one run in 16 1/3 innings with 19 strikeouts while holding batters to a .113 average. The Mets have never faced Weaver giving him the element of surprise. The Cardinals go from seeing Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom to facing Steven Matz here. Matz wasn't healthy last season posting a 2-7 mark and 6.08 ERA in 13 starts. Matz is supposed to be past his elbow injuries, but he wasn't sharp in spring training with a 6.30 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. Matz went against the Cardinals once last season and allowed five runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings on July 9. | |||||||
03-31-18 | Warriors -8.5 v. Kings | Top | 112-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Can the Kings actually win a season series against the Warriors having already defeated Golden State twice at Oracle Arena? No, of course not. Golden State is in an excellent spot to put a much needed halt to its three-game losing streak. The Warriors aren't at full strength, but they do have Kevin Durant and Dramond Green back for sure. The Warriors should have a sense of urgency not only to avenge two surprising home losses to the Kings, but to start getting things right to defend their world title with the playoffs coming up in a couple of weeks. It's easy to spotlight how bad the Warriors have been missing Stephen Curry, but the Kings are playing bad, too, losing five of their last six. They've been held to 98 or fewer points in five of their last seven games. The Warriors rank third in defensive field goal percentage. They not only have the two superstars, but also a much stronger bench. | |||||||
03-31-18 | Panthers v. Bruins UNDER 6 | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
Look for an intense, defensive matchup as not only is this an important game for both teams, but it's the first of three times Florida and Boston will play during the final nine days of the regular season. So hard-hitting and tight forechecking should get established right away. The Panthers shut out the Bruins, 3-0, in the first meeting this season on March 15. The Panthers carry a fatigue rating playing for the third time in four days. So they are likely to keep the pace slow. This is a very early start time, too. The Under has cashed seven of the last nine times the Panthers have played in this type of situation. Boston has held four of its last five opponents to two goals or fewer. Florida has failed to score more than three goals in eight of its last 10 games. The series also has an Under bias in Boston with the Under only winning in three of the last 17 matchups played there between the two teams. | |||||||
03-30-18 | Kings v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Kings at Ducks Under 5 1/2 minus $1.40 Not only is this a strong rivalry matchup, but it's critical to each team's playoff chances. So look for playoff-type intensity here with the loser giving up two points, which makes it critical that each team at least keep the game tied through regulation. I'm expecting a conservative, well-defended matchup with strong net play. The Kings defeated the Coyotes, 4-2, at home last night scoring a late empty net goal to make the final a two-goal difference. The Kings rested goalie Jonathan Quick in that game so Quick could be in peak condition for this more crucial matchup. LA hasn't given up more than three goals during its last eight games. The Kings aren't going to push the puck in up-tempo fashion after playing last night. The Under is 17-6-6 the past 29 times the Kings have played without rest. The Ducks are sure to be fired-up having had three days to stew about an embarrassing 4-1 loss to the Canucks. | |||||||
03-30-18 | Cubs -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The Marlins aren't just bad. They are bad enough to be in the argument of being the worst team in the decade. The oddsmaker knows this. That's why the price is so high to fade the Marlins. The best and safest way to protect the bankroll while still going against the Marlins is backing the Cubs on the run line. Kyle Hendricks is one of the most reliable starters in baseball. He allowed one or fewer runs in eight of his last 16 starts in 2017. His career ERA is 2.94. The Marlins gutted their offense. The Cubs should do enormous damage against Caleb Smith. The rookie lefty is a fill-in for injured Dan Straily. Nothing indicates Smith is ready to pitch in the majors especially facing such a challenging lineup that has tremendous right-handed power. The Cubs were 21-14 versus lefty starters last season. They toyed with the Marlins on Thursday before putting them away, 8-4. It should be the same story today with the Cubs easily winning by multiple runs. | |||||||
03-29-18 | Bucks v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 116-107 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
After consectuive home losses to the Jazz and Pacers, I see the Warriors bouncing back today against the underacheiving, complacent Bucks. The Warriors have been losing because of being short-handed. That changes here with the return of superstar Kevin Durant and All-Star Draymond Green. The Bucks are safetly in front of the Pistons by five games for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks aren't playing that well. They are 2-3 in their last five games with one of the victories coming against the tanking Bulls. Giannis Antetokounumpo hasn't been 100 percent because of an ankle injury. The Bucks have a much easier game on Friday playing the Lakers, so if they fall well behind they could just rest up their starters for tomorrow. The Warriors defeated the Bucks by 14 points in Milwaukee on Jan. 12 when they didn't have Stephen Curry. There's just too much of a class difference here and the timing is ripe for the Warriors getting back two of their stars while in stop-the-pain mode. | |||||||
03-29-18 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +140 | 6-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
The Yankees are going to be overpriced a lot this season especially early with all the hype surrounding them. Toronto is just the opposite. The Blue Jays are healthy and underrated. That makes them dangerous. This price is too high. The Yankees usually struggle in Toronto losing in 14 of their last 20 visits. The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus J.A. Happ. Severino is a potential ace, but he has a poor track record against Toronto giving up seven runs on 14 hits in 12 2/3 innings against them. On the flip side is Happ having excellent success versus the Yankees going 8-2 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Happ finished 4-1 in his last five starts last season giving up just seven earned runs during this five-game span. | |||||||
03-29-18 | Cardinals v. Mets OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
Much has to go right for there to be fewer than seven runs scored in a major league game. There are three elements at play here and two of the three point to a higher-scoring game than perceived. The starting pitching matchup does favor the Under with Carols Martinez facing Noah Syndergaard. These are elite pitchers although Martinez was more in the good than great category last season. But even if these aces are on their game - which is asking a lot since this is the earliest start date in baseball history excluding international games - they aren't going to get stretched out. The bullpens will be taking over at some point, probably earlier than expected, and neither is good. Both teams are still searching for their sure-fire closer. The Cardinals have a strong offense. The Mets' offense is underrated when Yoenis Cespedes is healthy, which he is now. | |||||||
03-28-18 | Celtics v. Jazz UNDER 194.5 | Top | 97-94 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
Utah gives up the second-fewest points per game in the NBA. Boston surrenders the third-least amount of points per game. Of course, the oddsmaker knows this. So we have a low total here. But based on circumstances, injuries and a more in-depth look at these defenses, it still makes for a strong Under play. No team is stingier defensively at home than Utah. The Jazz have been the best in the NBA in defensive efficiency, too, during their past eight overall games. The Jazz should have lots of defensive energy and intensity having last played on Sunday. They've played three straight road games all against Western Conference opponents. The last time they met an Eastern Conference foe was in their last home game, a shocking 99-94 loss to the lowly Hawks on March 20. The Hawks are a bottom-10 defensive team so Utah only putting up 94 points on them raises questions about just how good the Jazz's are offensively especially when Donovan Mitchell has an off-shooting night. Utah catches a huge break. Not only are the Celtics without Kyrie Irving, their leading scorer, but Marcus Morris isn't likely to play either. He sprained his ankle in the Celtics' last game, a 102-94 road victory against the Suns this past Monday. Morris has been Boston's top scorer during Irving's absence. The Celtics have become the slowest tempo team in the league since Irving went out. The Suns have the worst defense in the NBA yet held the Celtics two points under their season average. Boston isn't going to speed things up either in this matchup playing its fourth road game in six days. This is a survival game for the Celtics. Boston has the top defensive efficiency rating in the league when on the road. The Celtics can never be counted out thanks to the superior coaching of Brad Stevens. They will rely heavily on their defense to try to keep this one tight. The Celtics don't play again until Saturday so they shouldn't give up their defensive intensity if they fall behind. | |||||||
03-27-18 | Bucks v. Clippers -3 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
The Clippers proved they were better than the Bucks when they beat them by seven points just five days ago in Milwaukee. Now the Clippers are home in must-win mode being 2 1/2 games out of the last playoff spot in the West. The Bucks don't have that kind of urgency being safely ahead of ninth-place Detroit by six games. Milwaukee is an underachiever given its talent. The Bucks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 15 games. The Clippers have been tough versus Eastern Conference foes. They just upset the best team in the East beating the Raptors in Toronto two days ago. That pushed the Clippers' mark to 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games versus Eastern opponents. Giannis Antetokounmpo isn't 100 percent because of an ankle injury. The Clippers could get back sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari for this game. | |||||||
03-27-18 | Western Kentucky -120 v. Utah | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
Surprised that Western Kentucky has reached the NIT semifinals? You shouldn't be. The Hilltoppers average nearly 79 points a game, have five solid starters and are 4-1 against Power-5 conference opponents with victories against Purdue, Boston College, Oklahoma State and USC. The Hilltoppers are road tested - defeating USC and Oklahoma State away during this tournament - and played a tougher preseason schedule than Utah, the lone remaining team from what has turned out to be a weak Pac-12 year. Utah has had a much easier NIT draw than Western Kentucky getting Cal Davis, a banged-up LSU team and weak foul-shooting St. Mary's squad that it beat in overtime. The much respected Pomeroy ratings rank Western Kentucky 45th in the country compared to Utah's 57th. | |||||||
03-26-18 | Coyotes v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Tampa Bay is the top goal scoring team in the NHL. Lately, though, the Lightning have sprung leaks defensively allowing three or more goals in 11 of their last 16 games. Tampa Bay has surrendered six or more goals three times during this stretch. This conincides with Arizona getting hot offensively. The Coyotes are averaging four goals per game during their last four matchups. Arizona draws Tampa Bay baciup goalie Louis Domingue, too. Domingue started the season with the Coyotes and was terrible with a 4.33 GAA while going 0-6. His GAA is 2.84 in nine games with Tampa Bay compared to Lightning starter Andrei Vasilevskiy's 2.59 GAA. Tampa Bay has been a strong Over team at home with the Over winning 69 percent of the time during the past 29 games at Amalie Arena. The Over has cashed in eight of Arizona's last 11 road games, too. This series has an Over bias especially in Tampa where the Over has won nine of the last 11 times for 82 percent. | |||||||
03-25-18 | Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 203 | 110-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
The mixture of no Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson combined with what projects as a slower-paced game than perceived should produce a lower than expected final score. It's no surprise the Warriors' offense is far less potent without their three leading scorers. If you discount their game against the Suns, who give up the most points per game in the NBA, the Warriors are averaging just 91.3 points during their last three games. Those games were against the Kings, Spurs and Hawks, too. The Kings and especially the Hawks are below average defensive clubs. Now the Warriors draw Utah, which has been playing the best defense in the league by far during the past 10 games. Utah has held 11 of its last 14 foes to fewer than 100 points. The Jazz aren't going to look to run. It's not their normal style anyways and they are coming off an unusual 124-120 overtime loss to the Spurs two days ago. This is Utah's third game in four days. So the Jazz don't have the legs for a track meet. Golden State has an underrated defense that it will rely on even more with their top scorers all sidelined. Golden State is No. 3 in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. The Warriors rate fourth in defensive efficiency during their last five games as they adjust to their injuries. Draymond Green is going to play without a minutes restriction after missing the Warriors' Friday game against the Hawks because of a bruised pelvic. That's good news for the Under since Green is one of the best defensive players in the NBA. | |||||||
03-25-18 | Blazers v. Thunder -150 | 108-105 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
It's taken nearly the entire season, but the Thunder are finally coming on winning seven of their last eight games, going 5-2-1 ATS. Their lone defeat during this span was a one-point road loss to the Celtics. During this span, the Thunder beat the Spurs at home and Raptors on the road. Oklahoma City should be super focused for this matchup. Not only do the Thunder have triple revenge, but they need to protect their strong home-court edge at Chesapeake Energy Arena trailing Portland by one game for third-place in the Western Conference playoff seeding. The Thunder also don't play again until Thursday. So an all-out effort should be forthcoming. The Trail Blazers have tailed off after winning 13 in a row. They've dropped their past two games, including a home loss to the Celtics - who were minus Kyrie Irving - this past Friday. Portland's strength is its backcourt. But the Trail Blazers could be short-handed there. Shabazz Napier, their No. 3 guard, is questionable because of a toe injury. He missed the Blazers' prevous game. There exists the possibility, too, that All-Star guard Damian Lillard could miss this game. Lillard's girlfriend is due to give birth to their child on Monday. But if it happens today, Lillard is prepared to leave the team to witness the birth. | |||||||
03-25-18 | Duke -145 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -145 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
I want Duke going for me here. The Blue Devils are the best team, underline the word team, in the country this season. Not only are the Blue Devils a top-12 in the nation scoring and shooting team, but their defense has become elite. The Blue Devils' defense improved since Mike Krzyewski switched to primary zone with a few tweaks a couple of months ago. Since that time, the Blue Devils have ranked in the top-five in the country in defensive efficiency. Kansas needs to shoot very well to beat Duke. I don't see that happening especially given senior point guard Devonte' Graham's shooting woes. Graham has made just 14 of 33 shots from the floor for 33 percent while missing 12 of 17 3-point shots during the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks' defense hasn't been that crisp either. They've allowed 79 and 76 points in their last two games. The Jayhawks were able to get away with beating Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson despite these flaws. They won't be able to get away with Graham's poor shooting and lackluster defense versus Duke. I can see Kansas center Odoka Azubuike having problems and getting into foul trouble dealing with Duke's two low-post threats, Marvin Bagley and Wendell Carter. Bagley and Carter are considered to be top-eight picks in the NBA draft with Bagley possibly going as high as No. 2. They've helped Duke lead the nation in offensive rebounding. Duke got its mediocre game out of the way by beating Syracuse, 69-65, on Friday. Despite that non-cover, the Blue Devils are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They also have covered six of the past seven times following an ATS loss. The Blue Devils will find Kansas' zone easier to penetrate than Syracuse's. | |||||||
03-24-18 | Blackhawks v. Islanders -120 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
This is Chicago's first road game since officially being eliminated from the playoffs. The Blackhawks have lost 11 of their last 12 road contests. The Islanders are trying to keep their long-shot playoff hopes alive. So they are in must-win mode. While the Blackhawks lost 5-2 to the Canucks at home in their last game - a victory that halted a seven-game Vancouver losing skid - the Islanders nearly pulled off one of the top comebacks of the season. New York came from a 7-3 third period deficit against the Lightning, the team with the most points in the NHL, to lose 7-6. That shows the Islanders have some life, unlike the Blackhawks. New York also holds a goalie edge with Jaroslav Halak getting the start. Chicago is reduced to pair of ineffective backup goalies. | |||||||
03-23-18 | West Virginia +5 v. Villanova | Top | 78-90 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
This year's NCAA Tournament has been filled with upsets and extremely close games. I see that happening in this matchup. In most cases you have to go through stages to advance far in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia reached the Sweet 16 last season. The Mountaineers still have their tremendous, tenacious pressing defense, but their offense is better this season. Jevon Carter is a tremendous all-around player, the kind of guard who can lead a team to the tournament championship. West Virginia averaged more than 80 points a game this season and its defense - both physical and athletic - will make things difficult for Villanova. The Wildcats have been bailed out so far in the tournament by extraordinary 3-point shooting. I don't see that continuing here. | |||||||
03-23-18 | Clippers v. Pacers UNDER 219 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
The Pacers' offense became very disjointed when they had to make up a postponed road game at New Orleans two days ago. Indiana shot just 36.6 percent from the floor in losing, 96-92, to the second-worst defensive team in the NBA. Now the Pacers are back home, but their offense still could be missing. Indiana isn't going to get many missed opportunities with the way DeAndre Jordan has been rebounding. The Clippers' star defensive center is averaging 18.5 rebounds per game this month. Indiana, though, has held eight of its past 11 opponents to 100 points or fewer. The Pacers have played a very slow pace during their past 10 games, second-slowest in the league during this span. The Clippers aren't going to look to run either since this is their sixth road game in their last seven games and third game in four days.The Clippers have played five straight games against good offenses. They are stepping down in offensive class here. | |||||||
03-23-18 | Nuggets v. Wizards -115 | 108-100 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
The Nuggets can't win on the road - 12-23 away from Pepsi Center - let alone defeat a good team on the road. Not helping matters for Denver is Gary Harris, their leading scorer, remains out with a knee injury. Even without John Wall, the Wizards are one of the top passing teams in the league. Denver ranks last in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. Washington has played five games in a row versus playoff teams. So this is a step down for the Wizards. The Wizards have won the last three in the series, including beat the Nuggets in Denver back in October. Only once during its past six visits, has Denver won at Washington. | |||||||
03-23-18 | Canadiens v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Two non-playoff teams using backup goalies. It's a good combination for an Over. The Canadiens have given up three or more goals in seven of their last nine games. Carey Price is back for Montreal, but won't get the start here. Antti Niemi will and he's due for a regression. Third-string Linus Ullmark is set to make his second start for Buffalo. The Sabres haven't bee playing good defense in front of their goalies either allowing an average of four goals per game during their last four games. They've allowed three or more goals in eight of their last nine games. Montreal showed some offensive punch in its last game scoring three goals on the road against the Penguins. Buffalo's scoring attack is more respectable with its leading scorer, Jack Eichel, back from a long-term injury. | |||||||
03-22-18 | Canucks v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | 5-2 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
The simple handicap here is that a total above 5 1/2 is too high when the Canucks are involved. Vancouver is averaging one per goal per game during its last seven games! This total lack of scoring is mainly a result of the Canucks losing their leading scorer and star, Brock Boeser, who hasn't played during this losing skid and likely won't play again this season due to injury. The Canucks rank 27th in scoring. They know they can't play wide open especially on the road. So it's not a surprise that the Under has cashed the past six times Vancouver has been away. The Blackhawks are playing for the first time since being officialy eliminated from the playoffs. That's a new experience for them so it remains to be seen how much effort and energy they'll produce here. The Blackhawks have a below offense. Chicago has been held to three goals or fewer in 12 of its last 15 games. The Blackhawks have been a huge Under team at home, too, with the Under going 19-5-2 in Chicago's last 26 games at United Center. | |||||||
03-22-18 | Lakers +2.5 v. Pelicans | 125-128 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
As far as fatigue factors go in the NBA, the Pelicans face the worst I've seen in a long time. Because of an earlier postponed game, the Pelicans are in action for the third straight day and fifth time in six days. The line is a little shorter because of it, but there are other reasons to back the Lakers and fade the Pelicans. The Lakers are 12-8 ATS in their last 20 games. They are in stop-the-pain mode, though, having lost three in a row. Those losses came to the Warriors, Heat by one point and Pacers. Before their losing skid, the Lakers had won eight of 10. So they are not in tank mode. Their talent level is higher than other lottery-bound teams. The Lakers should have far more energy than the Pelicans. Not only are the Lakers much younger, but they last played on Monday. This marks just their third game in seven days. The Lakers also have double revenge motivation. The Pelicans had a tougher-than-they-wanted victory against the Mavericks on Tuesday. They then beat the Pacers, 96-92, in another tough matchup last night. Anthony Davis logged more than 70 minutes during the two games. Jrue Holiday, the Pelicans' second-most valuable player, is battling the flu and needed intravenous fluids at halftime yesterday. This isn't a must-win spot for the Pelicans. They are three games ahead of Denver for the final playoff spot in the West. So Alvin Gentry shouldn't burn up his starters to win this game given the special fatigue situation. New Orleans hasn't been good in this type of role either failing to cover 10 of the past 13 times at home versus below .500 road opponents. | |||||||
03-22-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Nevada -113 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
It's a minor miracle that either of these two teams are still in the NCAA Tournament. Both are legitimate, but fortunate. Nevada, though, is better and the matchup favors the Wolfpack. The Wolfpack are more athletic, have more length across the board and a far more explosive offense. They also are more battle tested as this was a down year in the Missouri Valley Conference and have the better coach with Eric Musselman. Nevada averaged 83 points. That ranked 16th-best in the country and is more than 11 points more per game than Loyola. But a key here is the Wolfpack averaged just 9.6 turnovers per game, which was the fourth-lowest in the country. So Nevada isn't sloppy. Another key is 3-point shooting. Both teams ranked tied for 20th in 3-point shooting percentage. It's a key part of their arsenals. However, Nevada defends the 3-pointer better than the Ramblers ranking 19th in 3-point percentage defense. The Wolfpack have displayed tremendous reslilence in the tournament coming back from a 14-point, second-half deficit to nail an overtime win against Texas and then emerging from 22 points down to stun No. 2 seed Cincinnati. Not to take anything away from the Ramblers, but they faced a pair of very young teams in the tournament, Tennessee and Miami. The Ramblers got past both of these opponents by hitting buzzer-beaters. Nevada is a much more veteran team with five of its top six players either a junior or senior. This is the Wolfpack's easiest game yet in the tournament. The price is right to get involved backing them. | |||||||
03-21-18 | Utah v. St. Mary's -6 | Top | 67-58 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
So much for the Pac-12. All the teams from that conference are gone now except Utah. That should tell you something about the strength of the Pac-12 and after tonight I don't see any Pac-12 team standing. Saint Mary's should have made the NCAA Tournament. The Gaels are 18-1 at home this season with the lone loss coming to Gonzaga. The question with Saint Mary's isn't talent, but motivation. The Gaels have three key seniors. It's obvious now that the Gaels are out to prove the NCAA Tournament committee wrong by winning the NIT. They buried Southeast Louisiana, 89-45, in their NIT opener. The Gaels got their lackluster performance out of the way in getting past Washington, 85-81, two nights ago. I expect the Gaels to be sharper against Utah, another Pac-12 team. Saint Mary's has covered 12 of the last 17 times when playing a Pac-12 foe. Utah lives and die with its perimeter shooting especially from 3-point range. Saint Mary's ranks 14th in the country in scoring defense and 22nd in 3-point percentage defense. Utah is hurt by a rule change in the NIT that stretches the distance to score on a 3-point shot. The Gaels, led by center Jock Landale, are the most accurate shooting team in the nation. I don't see the Utes being able to stay with them. | |||||||
03-21-18 | Wizards +5 v. Spurs | 90-98 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a down season for the Spurs. They aren't more talented than the Wizards. Washington is one of the better road teams in the league. The Wizards have won and covered 57 percent of their away matchups, including five of their last seven. Both teams are minus their superstar. But the Spurs miss Kawhi Leonard more than Washington misses John Wall. The Wizards actually get better movement without Wall since they have the highest percentage of assists in the league during the past 22 games. The Wizards also have been No. 1 in assists per game since Jan. 27. The Wizards enter this matchup in good form having defeated two of the five best teams in the NBA, Boston and Indiana, during their last two games. The Wizards should be rested and ready having last been in action on Saturday. San Antonio is 4-0 on its homestand with a bigger game home game looming on Friday versus Utah. The Spurs beat the Warrors, 89-75, in their last game this past Monday. That victory, though, isn't nearly as impressive as it might seem. Golden State was without Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Warriors then lost Draymond Green to a pelvic injury in the first half. He didn't return. So the value is with the Wizards. | |||||||
03-21-18 | Nuggets v. Bulls UNDER 222 | 135-102 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
It's easy to remember Denver's last game. That was two nights ago when the Nuggets lost 149-141 in double overtime. This marks the Nuggets' third of a season-high seven-game road trip. So look for the Nuggets to go at a more slow pace especially coming off a wild double overtime game. Prior to that game, the Nuggets had managed only 94 points in a seven-point road loss to the Grizzlies, who had dropped 19 in a row entering that matchup. The Nuggets remain without guard Gary Harris, their leading scorer. He's out with a knee injury. The Bulls played their last game without their three best offensive players - Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen. The result was a 110-92 road loss to the Knicks on Monday. That's 92 points against a below average Knicks defense. The Bulls lacked any rhythm offensively minus their three leading scorers. Dunn is out for sure here. Maybe LaVine and Markkanen return, although the Bulls have no urgency to rush them back. So I'm going to go Under this high total. | |||||||
03-21-18 | Canadiens v. Penguins -1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 130 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Montreal is playing the string out in the midst of another non playoff season. The Canadiens have been shut out in their last two games. But the big news here for the Canadiens is the expected return of Carey Price in net. That may sound good on the surface, but Price wasn't having a strong season when he suffered a concussion. This will be his first game since Feb. 20. Price figures to be very rusty. He also will be seeing a lot of young players in front of him and no stalwart defenseman Shea Weber, who is out for the year. Montreal has lost 22 of its last 28 games versus Eastern Conference foes. So I'm not expecting much from the dead Canadiens here. Neither is the oddsmaker with this large of a price. My strategy is to turn this into a plus profit by laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line. The Penguins didn't play that well two games ago when they met the Canadiens in Montreal this past Thursday. Yet they still won by two goals. After that game the Penguins played the Islanders on the road. That was last night and the Islanders, a huge underdog, stunned the Penguins winning 4-1. I'm expecting a strong bouce back effort from Pittsburgh. There should not be a fatigue factor either as the Penguins' previous game before last night was back on Thursday against the Canadiens. The Penguins are 26-8-1 at home this season and Matt Murray is back in net for them after missing three weeks with a concussion. The Penguins usually crush weak foes going 8-1 the past nine times versus below .400 opponents. | |||||||
03-20-18 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 104 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on for the Golden Knights after a 4-0 victory against the Flames this past Sunday. That halted a four-game home losing streak for Las Vegas. The Golden Knights should be back on track as this concludes their four-game homestand. Vancouver has become the worst team in the league since losing its leading scorer and sparkplug, rookie Brock Boeser. Since Boeser suffered a possible season-ending back injury, the Canucks have gone 0-6 scoring six goals in those six games. Las Vegas is 2-0 versus Vancouver defeating the Canucks 5-2 on the road and 6-3 at home. A similar three-goal victory wouldn't be in the least bit surprising. | |||||||
03-20-18 | Clippers v. Wolves -3 | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show | |
Injuries and the toll of a long season are going to cause the Clippers to probably miss the playoffs. LA has lost three in a row and looked extremely fatigued in a 122-109 home loss to the Trail Blazers this past Sunday. Now the Clippers are playing for the fourth time in six days - all at different venues. The Clippers are minus their two best backcourt defenders, Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. Both are out for the season. Sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari is sidelined, too. Minnesota is trying to make the Western Conference playoffs, too, and is very strong at home going 26-9 at Target Center. The Timberwolves have defeated the Clippers the past five times. They are 2-0 versus LA this season with both victories coming at Staples Center by an averaging winning margin of seven points. | |||||||
03-19-18 | Washington v. St. Mary's UNDER 144.5 | 81-85 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
Not only does Saint Mary's rank 12th defensively in the nation, but they play one of the slowest paces in the country being very deliberate offensively. That combination has been instrumental in the Gaels going Under in 68 percent of their last 51 games. Washington has a strong zone defense imported from Syracuse by its coach, Mike Hopkins. Opponents who haven't seen the Huskies can have problems with this zone defense. The Huskies have gone Under in 20 of their last 26 away matchups. They have the top defensive player in the Pac-12 in Matisse Thybulle. | |||||||
03-19-18 | Washington +11 v. St. Mary's | 81-85 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
Saint Mary's definitely deserved to make the NCAA Tournament. But the Gaels aren't a great team. They are down from past seasons. The Gaels played a very weak non-conference schedule, barely beat Pepperdine in the first round of the West Coast Conference Tournament and then were blown out in the semifinals by BYU. They are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Washington can match up to the Gaels being the more athletic team and having strong guard play headed by Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle. The Huskies are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 road games. Part of why this line is so high is Saint Mary's being 17-1 at home this season. But the Gaels are not invincible at home. Gonzaga proved that with a 78-65 victory at Saint Mary's on Feb. 10. Saint Mary's also lost 84-79 to Washington State back on Nov. 24. Washington played Washington State twice and beat the Cougars twice by a combined 23 points. | |||||||
03-19-18 | Panthers v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
A total of six is too high on a Montreal game. The Canadiens, battered by injuries, rank third-from-the-bottom in scoring. They are averaging 1.8 goals during their last six games. The Canadiens have been shut out 11 times so far this season. That's a franchise record. Florida is averaging only two goals per game during its past three road games. The Under has won 71 percent of the time that these two teams have played in Montreal. | |||||||
03-19-18 | Nuggets +2 v. Heat | 141-149 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
Denver is a bad road team. But the Nuggets are coming off one of their worst losses of the season, catch the Heat in their first game back from a West Coast triple and have covered five of the last six times when playing in Miami. I'm expecting a strong effort from the Nuggets after their coach, Michael Malone, justifiably ripped them following a 101-94 road loss to Memphis. The Grizzlies had lost 19 in a row entering that matchup. The Nuggets aren't going to have guard Gary Harris, an underrated player and their leading scorer. But Miami might continue to be without Hassan Whiteside and Dwayne Wade. Whiteside leads the Heat in reboundings and blocked shots. He's maybe the premier rim protector in the Eastern Conference. Wade had helped key Miami's bench. Whiteside has missed the past four games. His absence could mean a big performance from Nikola Jokic, who is playing at a high level. | |||||||
03-18-18 | Blazers v. Clippers -125 | 122-109 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
We're getting down to must-win mode in some NBA matchups. That's the case in this game for the Clippers. LA has lost two in a row falling to the Rockets and Thunder, both on the road. No shame in that. But those defeats dropped the Clippers to 1 1/2 games out of the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Following this home matchup, the Clippers play six of their next seven games on the road. The first four of those away contests are against the Timberwolves, Bucks, Pacers and Raptors. I doubt the Clippers will be favored in any of those games. So there is a tremendous sense of urgency for the Clippers to win this game. Portland is playing its best ball winning 12 in a row. This isn't so much a fade on the Trail Blazers as a play on the Clippers because of the spot. However, Portland has won nine of their past 12 wins at home. Two of their road victories during this span were against the Lakers and Suns. The last time Portland was away from Moda Center was 13 days ago. They won't go back on the road after this until next Sunday. The Trail Blazers don't need this game nearly as much as the Clippers being in good shape to earn the No. 3 seed in the West. Portland carries a high fatigue rating, too, playing for the third time in four days and without rest having defeated Detroit, 100-87, last night. The Trail Blazers have a marquee home game up next hosting the Rockets on Tuesday. There's the outside chance the Trail Blazers may not have their All-Star guard Damian Lillard for this game as the due date for the birth of his son is Monday. If the birth occurs earlier, though, Lilllard said he would be there for the occasion. | |||||||
03-18-18 | Marshall v. West Virginia -12.5 | Top | 71-94 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
Great job by Marshall upsetting Wichita State on Friday. That was the Thundering Herd's first NCAA Tournament victory. They are not going to get their second tournament win here, though. Not only are the Thundering Herd in a tough spot to get ready for this matchup following such a great win, but they have serious matchup problems against West Virginia. The Mountaineers hold huge edges athletically and in style of play with their pressure defense and strong senior backcourt of Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles. Unlike Marshall, West Virginia is tournament tested, too, having reached the Sweet 16 last March where they nearly took out Gonzaga. Not only can Carter, who was tremendous in the Mountaineers' first-round victory against Murray State and its star, Jonathan Stark, slow down Marshall's top scoring threat, Jon Elmore, but Sagaba Konate gives West Virginia a strong inside defensive presence. The Mountaineers finished sixth in the nation in shot block percentage. West Virginia is at its best against non-conference opponents not familar with the Mountaineers' full-court, all-out pressing. The Big 12 was tough again this season and its coaches know West Virginia. The conference also had exception guard play. West Virginia is stepping way down here. I see a kill spot here. | |||||||
03-18-18 | Maryland-Baltimore County v. Kansas State -10 | 43-50 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm still marveling at Maryland-Baltimore County's stunning upset of Virginia from two days ago. The Retrievers broke an 0-for-135 record of 16th seeds versus No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament by defeating the Cavaliers, 74-54. This is arguably the biggest upset in NCAA Tourney history. There is no way the Retrievers can come down from the heavens in such a short period to play a second consecutive perfect game to stay within single digits of emerging Kansas State. Maryland-Baltimore County was a 10-point underdog to Vermont in the championship game of the American East Conference Tournament. The Retrievers hit a long 3-point shot to pull out that win after losing to Vermont twice during the regular season by an average of 21.5 points. This is a team that was buried, 83-39, by Albany. The Retrievers clearly aren't in the class of Kansas State, a solid Big 12 team. The Wildcats are strong defensively particularly with their perimeter defense. The Retrievers lack the inside scoring game to hurt the Wildcats. Kansas State was most impressive, too, in its first-round tournament game holding Creighton to a season low in points in a 69-59 victory. It's an added plus if Dean Wade is able to play for the Wildcats after missing the win against Creighton. | |||||||
03-18-18 | Stars v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
These teams have gone Over the total in five of their last six meetings. I see that trend continuing especially with Mark Scheifele returning to the Jets' lineup. He's missed the last five games. The Jets have scored at least three goals in the last 10 games Scheifele has played in. Winninpeg has scored 14 goals in three games versus Dallas this season with Scheifele scoring six goals. The over has cashed in Winnipeg's last seven home games. The Jets will draw Ben Bishop, who is having an inconsistent season in goal. Dallas is giving up an average of four goals per game during its last four games. | |||||||
03-17-18 | Warriors -3 v. Suns | 124-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Much has changed for the Warriors since their 129-83 waltz against the Suns in the team's last meeting on Feb. 12. Namely Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson are all out. Golden State is 1-3 in its last four games having just lost two days ago to the lowly Kings at home. But if there's a team worse than the Kings it's the Suns. They are 1-17 in their last 18 games, losers of seven in a row. Phoenix is 2-22 in its last 24 games and may not have its best player and only consistent, legitimate scorer, Devin Booker. He's questionable because of a sprained right hand that rendered him ineffective in the Suns' last game, a blowout loss to Utah. I see the Warriors digging deep to beat this lowly foe. Golden State has a deep bench and still has star foward Draymond Green and solid veterans Andre Iguodala, Nick Young, David West and Shaun Livingston. The Warriors' next game is at San Antonio on Monday. They don't play again after that until Friday when Curry might be able to return. So the Warriors should have a very strong focus for this matchup, which normally wouldn't be the case considering how weak the opponent is. | |||||||
03-17-18 | Seton Hall +4.5 v. Kansas | Top | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
Seton Hall has four excellent senior starters, including one of the top rebounders in the country in Angel Delgado, plus an excellent starting sophomore guard, Myles Powell. These group of seniors are playing in the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year. They earned their first Big Dance victory beating North Carolina State on Thursday to push their unbeaten point-streak to six in a row. They also got the moneky off their back in breaking through with an NCAA Tournament victory. This isn't a great Kansas team. The Jayhawks struggled against Ivy League team Penn before closing out the Quakers with a 14-6 run. That won't happen against tournament-tested Seton Hall. One of the Pirates' strong points is their offensive rebound. One of Kansas' weakness is giving up offensive rebounds where it ranked 280th in the country. The taller Priates can limit Kansas' rebounding and thus blunt the Jayhawks' desire to play up-tempo and their aggressive in-transition style. | |||||||
03-17-18 | Senators v. Blue Jackets -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Columbus is playing its best hockey down the strentch. The Blue Jackets have won six in a row. They also own a six-game home win streak. Columbus has won by more than one goal during five of its last seven victories and has been dominant at home versus opponents with a winning percentage of less than .400 going 22-6. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has returned to top form. The Blue Jackets have given up two goals or fewer in four of their last six games and not more than three during regulation in this time span. Ottawa has been playing well, too, post three straight upset victories defeating the Panthers and Lightning on the road and the Stars at home last night, 3-2 in overtime. But the Senators aren't a good team - with a below average offense and the league's 30th-ranked defense - and carry a heavy fatigue rating. This is Ottawa's fourth game in six days and second in two days. The Senators are 1-5 the past six times when playing without rest. So I don't see the Senators winning a fourth consecutive game, something they haven't achieved all season. | |||||||
03-17-18 | Rhode Island v. Duke UNDER 149.5 | 62-87 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm not sold on Rhode Island's perimeter game. I see the Rams struggling to hit their outside shots against Duke's tough zone defenses. The Blue Devils have held seven of their last nine opponents to fewer than 69 points. The Under has cashed during eight of these past nine Duke games. The Rams can't count on getting to the foul line either as Duke's ranks No. 2 in the nation in fewest fouls. Rhode Island is very solid defensively allowing 68.2 points per game and ranking 47th in 3-point defense. I can envision the Rams bothering the Blue Devils, who have been turnover-prone, with their fullcourt pressure defense. "Our program is built around defense and making our opponent uncomfortable," Rhode Island coach Dan Hurley was quoted as saying after the Rams held Oklahoma to 69 points during regulation in their opening round NCAA Tournament game. The Sooners were ranked fifth in the nation in scoring at 84.9. | |||||||
03-16-18 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Minnesota is a top-10 scoring team that has scored three or more goals in nine of its last 12 games. The Wild are likely to draw Las Vegas backup goalie Malcolm Subban. Golden Knights starting goalie Marc-Andre Fleury clearly hit a wall after starting 18 of the past 19 games. He was the starter in Las Vegas' 8-3 home loss to the Devils this past Wednesday. The Golden Knights are the No. 2 scoring team in the NHL. They've been in scoring slump, which should end now that star forward James Neal is back playing. Neal is the Golden Knight's third-leading goal scorer. Minnesota has a key defensive injury with defenseman Jared Spurgeon out with a torn hamstring suffered this past Tuesday. The teams have met twice this season and there were six and seven goals, respectively, scored by the two teams. | |||||||
03-16-18 | New Mexico State +5 v. Clemson | 68-79 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
This is one of those No. 5 seeds versus No. 12 seeds that has seen so many upsets occur in the first round. I see this game fitting that upset pattern. I like having an underdog that has a coaching edge, is a strong rebounding team and plays very good defense. New Mexico State has all that going. The Aggies finished in the top-five in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and rebounding margin. Chris Jans has done a tremendous job in his first season as New Mexico State's coach. The Lobos proved they can step up in class knocking off Miami, Davidson and Illinois during a tough non-conference slate. They lost by just five to USC, a team better than Clemson no matter what the NCAA Tournament committee thinks. Clemson should not be this high of a seed. The Tigers built up their record by winning 15 of 16 home games. Their offense has gone downhill since their second leading scorer and rebounder, Dante Graham, suffered a season-ending injury in January. | |||||||
03-16-18 | College of Charleston +9.5 v. Auburn | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
Auburn couldn't get straighten out for the SEC Conference Tournament and I don't see the Tigers getting a much needed quick fix in this opening round NCAA Tournament game either. The Tigers are 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS in their last six games. They were blasted by Alabama, 81-63, during the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament. It's clear now that Auburn way overachieved earlier in the season. This certainly is the wrong time to be playing your worst ball. The College of Charleston is just the opposite. The Cougars are riding tremendous mometum winning 14 of their last 15 games. Their lone defeat during this span occurred in overtime. It wouldn't shock me at all to see the Cougars win this game outright. | |||||||
03-15-18 | Montana v. Michigan -10 | Top | 47-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Michigan's John Beilein is my favorite college basketball coach now that Bo Ryan has retired. His Wolverines have tournament experience and plenty of rest having been idle for 10 days following winning the Big 10 Conference Tournament. The Wolverines achieved that in grand style winning four games in four days culminated by victories against Michigan State and Purdue during the last two days. Michigan's averaging winning margin against those two powerhouses was 10 points. Montana certainly isn't in the class of Purdue and Michigan State. The Grizzlies play in Big Sky Conference. They last participated in the NCAA Tournament in 2013. The last time they won a game in the Big Dance was 2006. The Grizzlies are 3-11 the last 14 times they've played Big 10 teams and are 1-5 ATS during their past six neutral site games. Michigan, by contrast, is 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times when meeting an above .500 opponent. The Wolverines enter tournament play riding a nine-game win streak. They have the ninth-best defense in the country, have held seven of their last eight opponents to fewer than 67 points, rank 25th in offensive rebounding and are No. 2 in turnover percentage. They are far, far superior to Montana. Given the situational elements, the Wolverines should have no problem winning by double-digits. | |||||||
03-15-18 | Suns +14 v. Jazz | 88-116 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Utah is playing great and just destroyed Detroit, 110-79, at home two days ago. That was the Jazz's fifth straight victory by at least 14 points. Phoenix is 1-16 in its last 17 games and just was embarrassed, 129-107, at home by the Cavaliers this past Tuesday. That was only the third time in their last 11 games, though, the Suns have lost by more than 11 points. Understandably the marketplace isn't interested in backing Phoenix. The Jazz have been bet up enough, however, where I see value taking the Suns. The Suns want to redeem themselves from their bad loss to the Cavaliers. Devin Booker, their best player, criticized his organization following that loss for babying the players. The Suns are extremely young with only Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley having more than four years experience. But the Suns do possess some talent headed by Booker, the 10th-leading scorer in the NBA. Phoenix is 9-5 ATS the past 14 times it has been a double-digit 'dog. The Suns won't attempt to play their small ball against this opponent. So Chandler, their veteran big man and still a rebounding force, will draw decent minutes. He can keep Rudy Gobert in check. The Jazz can't be faulted for taking this opponent lightly. Utah averages less than 103 points a game so it's difficult to cover a margin this large. | |||||||
03-15-18 | Avalanche v. Blues OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 4 m | Show | |
Perhaps last week this total would have made sense given the Blues' scoring woes. But St. Louis' offense has come alive. The Blues scored a combined 11 goals in their last two games against the Ducks and Kings, a pair of top-five defenses, while averaging 33 shots on goal in those matchups. Colorado ranks 17th defensively. Colorado is the eighth-highest scoring team in the NHL. The Avalanche are averaging 4.2 goals during their last seven games. Nathan MacKinnon is one of the hottest players in the league with 17 points in his last nine games, including eight goals. Jake Allen will be making his fourth consecutive start in net with Carter Hutton still out for St. Louis. The last time Allen made this many starts in a row was back in December. | |||||||
03-15-18 | Bruins v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
The Bruins are averaging 4.6 goals during their last eight games. The Panthers have scored at least three goals in 10 straight games. So I find this total low especially since both teams are expected to go with their backup goalies. Boston's Anton Khudobin is one of the better second-string goalies, but Florida backup James Reimer is bad. The Bruins could be down two key defensemen, too. Zdeno Chara isn't likley to play and Torey Krug is questionable. Both were injured in Boston's last game. | |||||||
03-15-18 | NC State v. Seton Hall -135 | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
Kudos to Kevin Keatts for the remarkable job he did this season at North Carolina State. The Wolfpack really overachieved going from a sub .500 team of a year ago to making the Big Dance this season. But this is a bad matchup for the Wolfpack. Their lack of tournament experience, poor defensive field goal percentage and mediocre rebounding is going to cost them against Seton Hall in this first round Midwest Region game. When the point spread is short like this, I often like to play the money line laying a little higher juice for more protection. There should be good shopping in this regards with a lot of money line flucutation. Often a team goes through stages gradually improving until they are ripe to win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament. That's the case with Seton Hall. The Pirates are making their third straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament. They lost in their first-round game to powerhouse Gonzaga two years ago and lost in controversial fashion last season to Arkansas on a flagrant foul call late in the game when trailing by only one point. I believe the due factor kicks in for Seton Hall here. The Pirates have the experience - with four senior starters - and talent to beat this opponent. Those starting seniors - Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado, Desi Rodriguez and Ismael Sanogo - are the most successful recruiting group Seton Hall has had in a long time. Rodriguez is averaging nearly 18 points and five rebounds per game and Delgado is the Big East's career rebounding leader. The other starter, sophomnore guard Myles Powell, averages 15.4 points a game and was named the Big East's Most Improved Player. The Pirates enter the tournament having covered in their last five games. While North Carolina State did go 11-7 in the ACC, its non-conference schedule ranked just 343rd in the country as far as strenth of schedule. North Carolina State ranks 294th in defensive field goal percentage, allowing foes to hit 53.5 percent of their two-point shots, and is 307th in defensive rebounding percentage. Seton Hall can exploit this ranking among the top 30 in offensive rebounding percentage and rating 26th in terms of points per 100 possessions. The timing is ripe for these outstanding Seton Hall seniors to win an NCAA Tournament game. That time is now. | |||||||
03-14-18 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Warriors have been idle since Sunday having lost their last two games. Golden State hasn't lost three games in a row all season. Golden State is rested, fired-up and ready to unleash its frustrations against the Lakers. LA has been playing well, but isn't good enough to beat an elite foe. The Lakers also just beat the Nuggets in a highly-satisfying home victory last night in a very emotional and physical game. This marks the Lakers' third game in four days. They remain without injured second-leading scorer Brandon Ingram. The Warriors won't have Stephen Curry. They've had two games to adjust now to his absence. Golden State leads the NBA in all major scoring categories, including points per game and shooting percentage. The Warriors also rank third in defensive field goal percentage. The Lakers rank 27th defensively. They've allowed triple-digits in their last 13 games. The Warriors are by far the superior team and are in a strong situational spot here. The points are worthy laying. | |||||||
03-14-18 | BYU v. Stanford -135 | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Stanford plays in the better conference and was tough down the stretch going 5-2. A victory against Arizona State 11 days ago was especially impressive. BYU hasn't been impressive on the road losing at Pacific, Loyola-Marymount and San Diego while going into overtime against Pepperdine. The Cardinal have covered in eight of their last nine home contests. Stanford has a balanced scoring attack paced by forward Reid Travis, one of the better players in the Pac-10. BYU ranks just 231st in defensive field goal percentage allowing opponents to hit nearly 45 percent of their field goals. | |||||||
03-14-18 | Wizards -140 v. Celtics | 125-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
At first this line may seem strange: Washington a road favorite against the Celtics. But there are reasons for this. The Celtics aren't playing that well going just 7-6 in their last 13 games. Worse for the Celtics is they are extremely banged-up. Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Daniel Theis and Marcus Smart are all out. Al Horford missed the Celtics' last game with an illness and is questionable here. The Celtics are likely ensured of finishing in second place in the Eastern Conference so this isn't a high priority game. Boston is well ahead of Indiana and Cleveland for the No. 2 spot, but trails Eastern Conference leader Toronto by four games. Washington is in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row. Those losses came to Miami on the road and to Minnesota at home last night. The Wizards were idle the previous two days, though, so fatigue shouldn't factor. The Wizards are 20-14 ATS on the road this season, including covering five of their past six away matchups. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
ProSportsPicks | $1,066 |
Jack Jones | $960 |
Big Al McMordie | $876 |
Ross Benjamin | $740 |
Ray Monohan | $702 |
Jimmy Boyd | $424 |
Nick Parsons | $414 |
Ricky Tran | $343 |
Kyle Hunter | $265 |
Matt Fargo | $175 |