Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-16-17 | Pirates +109 v. Reds | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
I know the Pirates have been fade material this month, but I see this as a nice bounceback spot for them and Ivan Nova against Reds rookie Sal Romano. Nova has had a tough second half, but is a quality pitcher. The Pirates still have a number of quality hitters in their lineup, especially with Greogory Polanco back healthy. Romano has a higher ERA than Nova and has suffered two losses to the Pirates already this season. He's allowed six runs in 11 2/3 innings against Pittsburgh. | |||||||
09-16-17 | Purdue v. Missouri UNDER 77 | 35-3 | Win | 100 | 33 h 54 m | Show | |
Purdue is coming on offensively under Jeff Brohm and Missouri's defense remains a work-in-progress trying to get back to its form of two years when it finished 15th in the nation in total defense. But this total is too high. The Boilermakers aren't going against Lamar Jackson here. The Tigers should be fired-up defensively after getting rid if defensive coordinator DeMontie Cross. Missouri has a very good punter and a questionalbe field-goal kicker. So that's another plus for the under. | |||||||
09-16-17 | Virginia Tech v. East Carolina OVER 59 | Top | 64-17 | Win | 100 | 79 h 42 m | Show |
East Carolina ranks 128th out of of 129 FBS teams in defense giving up an average of 616.5 yards in its two games. The Pirates just fired their defensive coordinator, Kenwick Thompson, after losing 56-20 to West Virginia last week. East Carolina surrendered 49 points in the first half so West Virginia called off the dogs in the second half. Virginia Tech smashed East Carolina, 54-17, at home last year. The 16th-ranked Hokies play at a fast tempo and freshman quarterback Josh Jackson is proving to be an excellent fit for their offense. Here's the thing about East Carolina. The Pirates also have a quick tempo offense. I expect the Pirates to contribute to going Over this total regardless if quarterback Thomas Sirk, who made his first start for the Pirates last week, plays or not due to a concussion he suffered last week. The Pirates figure to be throwing a lot here, which puts the pick-six for Virginia Tech very much in play. These teams shouldn't have a problem at least matching the combined 71 points scored in last year's game. | |||||||
09-16-17 | Air Force v. Michigan OVER 48.5 | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 32 m | Show | |
The marketplace reacted way too violently betting this game down too low. This sets up a value play on the Over. Yes, Air Force is a running team and Michigan didn't play that well versus Cincinnati last week. But the Wolverines have a balanced offense and are capable of putting up plenty of points here especially if they cut back - as they will - on turnovers. The Falcons have just one starter back on defense from last season. Air Force piled up 457 yards on the ground in a 62-0 blanking of VMI two weeks ago. The Falcons were idle last week so they should be fresh. Michigan, like Air Force, only returns one defensive starter from last season. | |||||||
09-16-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas A&M OVER 59.5 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 42 h 23 m | Show | |
Texas A&M isn't taking its foot off the gas after blowing a 44-17 lead against UCLA and only beating Nicholls State, 24-14, last week. Make no mistake about it either, the Aggies have the firepower and are facing a horrendous defense that they have the capabiity of putting up 50 points themselves here. Louisiana-Lafayette is averaging 46.5 points in its two games, while surrendering an average of 57 points a game. The Ragin' Cajuns have a balanced attack, a bombs away quarterback in Jordan Davis and a dangerous kick return game. | |||||||
09-15-17 | Blue Jays -107 v. Twins | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
It's a testament on how washed-up Bartolo Colon is that he's being celebrated as coming through for the Twins when his ERA is 4.69 in 11 outings since joining Minnesota. The 44-year-old Colon could be hitting the wall as the long season winds down. He couldn't get out of the second inning in his last start this past Sunday at Kansas City giving up six runs on six hits. Blue Jays starter J.A. Happ, on the other hand, is in excellent form going 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA during his past three starts. The Twins are only one game above .500 when playing at home. Toronto has been very disappointing this season. But the Happ versus Colon mismatch is worth the small lay price on the visiting Blue Jays. | |||||||
09-15-17 | A's v. Phillies -118 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -118 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
The Phillies are supposed to be bad. But don't tell that to Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Alfaro and Nick Williams. Sparked by these three youngsster - all of whom are batting .300 or above - the Phillies have won eight of their last 14 games. They are averaging 7.3 runs during their last six games. The good times should roll on for at least another game as the Phillies match up against Daniel Mengden and an A's team that has the worst road mark in the majors at 22-49. Mengden will be making his fourth big league start. He has a 7.07 ERA. Philadelphia starter Mark Leiter Jr. pitches much better at home where his ERA is 1.87. | |||||||
09-13-17 | Mariners v. Rangers +101 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
Even though they lost to Seattle Tuesday night, the Rangers have dominated the Mariners in Arlington winning eight of the past 10. Look for the Rangers to get back on track today in a pitching matchup of Mike Leake versus Martin Perez. Leake had hit a wall in St. Louis. Leake has temporarily found new life in Seattle winning both of his starts for the Mariners. I don't see things going smooth for him in this his third start as AL opponents are now up on him. The Rangers have scored four or more runs in nine of their last 11 games and Arlington is a tough place to pitch at especially this time of year. Perez doesn't get much respect. All he does, though, is win going 7-0 in his past seven outings. Only once during this span has Perez given up more than three runs. | |||||||
09-12-17 | Astros -118 v. Angels | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
On paper, this is a marquee pitching matchup: Justin Verlander versus Garrett Richards. Verlander can still bring it. He's 6-2 with a 2.33 ERA since the All-Star break. Only twice in his last 11 starts as he permitted more than two earned runs. Verlander was brilliant in his Astros debut last Tuesday against the Mariners. He'll be highly motivated here for new team. The Astros should be fully focused, too, after an embarrassing four-game sweep by the As. Richards is pitching for just the third time, including minors, since being out five months with a biceps strain. He's going to be on a pitch count of around 65-70 pitches. So the Astros, the No. 1 offensive team in baseball, get Richards trying to find his way back and a vulnerable Angels bullpen. Houston has had good success playing the Angels on the road winning 10 of the last 14. | |||||||
09-12-17 | Marlins v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
I can see these two teams combining for double-digit runs at homer-friend Citzens Band Park with a rookie pitching matchup and a slight wind blowing out to right. Marlins southpaw Dillon Peters has pitched two outstanding games. He makes his third big league start here with opponents now having a book on him. This should especially be the case with the Phillies, who faced him only 12 days ago. The Phillies offense is better than perceived with Odubel Herrera and Aaron Altherr healthy, rookie power-hitter Rhys Hoskins making an impact and perennial disappointing Maikel Franco on a rare hot tear. They've helped the Phillies average 5.5 runs in their last seven games. The Marlins and home run king Gincarlo Stanton should do plenty of damage against Nick Pivetta, who has a 6.49 ERA. That ERA balloons up to 7.11 ERA when facing the Marlins. This is his fourth start versus Miami. Pivetta has had four terrible starts in his last seven outings and one below average one. The Phillies are letting Pivetta endure his growing pains in the majors since they are in rebuild mode. | |||||||
09-11-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 71 h 20 m | Show |
San Diego is in bounce-back mode after putting a league-high 21 players on the injured reserve last season. Philip Rivers is a stud quarterback and the Chargers have the pass rushers with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram and a good secondary to keep the Broncos' offense in check. Trevor Siemian can't compare to Rivers. He's coming off a 3-5 record during the past eight games where he had a 10-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Siemian is lucky he doesn't have any real competition in Denver because he's one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. Denver averaged a mediocre 22.2 points in 2015. That average sank to 20.8 last season when the Broncos also finished 27th in total offense. Their offense doesn't look any better this season unless Jamaal Charles can somehow recapture his magic. The Chargers have more firepower with Melvin Gordon, a healthy Keenan Allen and emerging tight end Hunter Henry not to mention the still reliable Antonio Gates. Denver's defense remains top tier, but it did lose T.J. Ward. | |||||||
09-10-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -110 | 1090 h 53 m | Show |
The Cowboys couldn't solve the Giants' defense last year averaging just 13 points versus New York in two games. The Giants won both of those games. They've now covered five in a row against Dallas winning three and losing the other two by just one and three points, respectively. The Giants have many of their same starters back on defense, including a strong secondary that is able to negate Dez Bryant and take advantage of Dak Prescott's inexperience. On the flip side, the Cowboys have a vulnerable secondary that Eli Manning can exploit with his improved receiving group that now includes Brandon Marshall to go with Odell Beckham Jr. and emerging Sterling Shepard. A lot went Dallas' way last year. You could make a strong argument the Giants are the better team. They were a hot 9-2 down the stretch last season before being eliminated in the playoffs by the Packers. Dallas' home field advantage is not worth this many points as the Giants very well could win this game straight-up. | |||||||
09-10-17 | Astros -1.5 v. A's | 2-10 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
Dallas Keuchel is back to ace status with a 12-3 record and 2.88 ERA. He's coming off a strong performance against the Mariners holding Seattle to two runs on seven hits in 7 2/3 innings during a 6-2 win. Keuchel is 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA in three starts versus Oakland this season. Don't expect the powerful Astros, with the No. 1 offense in the majors, to be overconfident, though. The Astros' pride is at stake having dropped the first three games of this series, including a doubleheader on Saturday. I rate Keuchel as an "A" pitcher right. Oakland starter Kendall Graveman is a "C minus." He's not in good form either with a 5.29 ERA in his last three starts. The oddsmaker knows all of this. That's why Houston is such a high road favorite. But I'm confident the Astros win in a blowout here so I'll lay the 1 1/2 runs at greatly reduced juice. | |||||||
09-10-17 | Ravens v. Bengals -2.5 | 20-0 | Loss | -115 | 460 h 55 m | Show | |
The Bengals are back to being a legitimate playoff contender, while the Ravens are likely to keep regressing due to a poor offense. Baltimore's defense isn't nearly the dominant force of years past. The Ravens don't have enough pieces to keep up with all of Cincinnati's skill position talent. A.J. Green always has been a Ravens-killer while being a consensus top-five wide receiver. Tight end Tyler Eifert is healthy, unlike last year. He's a premier tight end red zone threat. Added to this mix are good looking running back Joe Mixon and speedster rookie wide receiver John Ross. The best case scenario for the Ravens would be if Joe Flacco started instead of Ryan Mallet, who is one of the worst backup QB's in the league. Flacco is expected to start, but he'll be extremely rusty having not played during preseason recovering from knee surgery and a bad back. The Ravens' offensive line is in flux due to injuries and the unexpected retirement of center Urschel. Kenneth Dixon, probably the team's best runner, is out with injury as is tight end Dennis Pitta. There just isn't any way the Ravens can keep up with the Bengals' talent-laced skill position players. Then there is the road factor. This is the first time Cincinnati is opening at home since 2009. The Bengals have dominated this series winning seven of the last 10, including going 5-0 at home. The Ravens have lost at Cincinnati by an average of 12 1/2-points the past two seasons - and the gap seems wider this year. Baltimore is far less intimidating on the road. That's reflected in a 4-13 regular-season away mark. The Ravens have lost their past six road games. Their lone road victories last season occurred against the Browns and Jaguars. | |||||||
09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears UNDER 50 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 115 h 57 m | Show |
The Bears are going to struggle to move the ball with Mike Glennon under center and a very weak receiving group. Bears coach John Fox is conservative to begin with and he'll be more conservative here against an improved and aggressive Falcons defense. That means a lot of running with Jordan Howard, which keeps the clock moving and slows tempo. The Falcons rarely play on grass. That's not a plus for their high-speed offense. The Bears' defensive front seven is decent. Chicago is weak in the secondary. But this is a very high total especially given Chicago's limited firepower. The departure of guru offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to the 49ers hurts Atlanta. The Falcons new offensive coordinator is Steve Sarkisian, who is new to the NFL. That sure doesn't seem like a fair tradeoff going from Shanahan to Sarkisian. | |||||||
09-10-17 | Cardinals -125 v. Lions | 23-35 | Loss | -125 | 92 h 39 m | Show | |
The Lions were a bogus playoff team last season. The Cardinals should be much better after experiencing their first losing season in four years under Bruce Arians. Getting difference-makers wide receiver John Browns, safety Tyrann Mathieu and offensive tackle Jared Veldheer back from injury are huge for Arizona. Detroit has a weak defense - opponents completed a record 72.7 percent of their throws against the Lions last year - and a lackluster ground game. That's a bad combination. Matthew Stafford doesn't have a stud wide receiver like Calvin Johnson anymore to make the Lions feared offensively. The Lions can't beat good teams. Arizona is back to being a good team now that its properly motivated and has key players back healthy. David Johnson is the best all-purpose back in football. Carson Palmer remains dangerous when he has a clean pocket. That should be the case here with the Lions minus Kerry Hyder and Ziggy Ansah having to prove he's fully healthy. All my checkmarks go to the Cardinals - offense, defense and coaching. The Lions have lost the past seven times they've faced the Cardinals, including getting blown out, 42-17, two years ago at home. | |||||||
09-09-17 | Minnesota +2.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 48-14 | Win | 100 | 58 h 3 m | Show |
Minnesota is the right side here. The Gophers aren't flashy. But they don't need to be here. They will control the trenches and dominate ball possession with a solid ground game featuring Rodney Smith running behind a strong offensive line. Oregon State has yet to show it can stop the run. The Beavers were pushed around by Colorado State and by Portland State, a FCS school. Oregon State's 58-27 opening week loss to Colorado State looks even worse with the Rams losing to Colorado, 17-3, last week. Oregon State was fortunate to beat Portland State winning, 35-32, as a 26 1/2-point home favorite. Portland State ran for nearly 300 yards against Oregon State. Minnesota's P.J. Fleck is an upper tier coach. He's sharp enough to play the cards he's dealt with - and that's to grind. That formula sets up well for this matchup. The Gophers don't have to do anything fancy here. Oregon State's home field advantage is reduced, too, for this game because school isn't in session yet and there is an air quality warning due to forest fires in the area that could lower attendance. | |||||||
09-09-17 | Twins v. Royals +106 | 2-5 | Win | 106 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
The Twins have lost the past four times they've pitched Jose Berrios against the Royals. I expect that streak to continue here especially with this game in Kanas City. Berriors has a very high ceiling. He's pitched well at home going 8-1 with a 2.56 ERA. But he's been another pitcher on the road where he's 4-6 with a 5.43 ERA. Minnesota is 0-8 during Berriors last eight road starts. Berrios has an 8.20 career ERA versus Kansas City in four outings. The Twins aren't likely to have their closer, Matt Belisle, either. He has pitched the past three days. Royals starter Jake Junis isn't as highly regarded as Berrios. Junis, though, quietly has done a good job. He is 7-2, tied for the lead among American League rookies for victories. Junis is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA in his last three starts spanning 16 innings. He's posted an 18-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this span. | |||||||
09-09-17 | UNLV +7 v. Idaho | 44-16 | Win | 100 | 54 h 52 m | Show | |
UNLV got caught looking ahead to this revenge matchup and was shocked 43-40 by Howard, an FCS school, last week. The Rebels were a 45 1/2-point favorite in that game making them the largest favorite ever to lose. The Rebels shouldn't have been that big of a favorite in hindsight. But they also shouldn't be this much of an underdog. UNLV has a very good offense. Rebel coach Tony Sanchez has done a good job recruiting. The Rebels were tabbed by many to earn a bowl spot. Now they need to win this game. They have been sick of hearing all week about their shocking loss to Howard. Idaho wasn't as good as its 9-4 record of a year ago. The Vandals have a rebuilt offensive line and their special teams aren't as dangerous. Idaho usually starts the season slow, too, covering only two of its last 11 September games. | |||||||
09-09-17 | Nebraska v. Oregon OVER 69 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 54 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm expecting each of these teams to hit the 40-point barrier. Both teams are all about offense and have weak defenses. Oregon gave up 21 points in the first half to Southern Utah in a 77-21 victory last week. Tre Bryant rushed for 192 yards in Nebraska's 43-36 victory against Arkansas State last week. | |||||||
09-09-17 | Indiana v. Virginia OVER 56 | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 26 m | Show | |
Indiana is Indiana. The Hooisers score a lot - and they give up a lot. That was the case again in their opener, a 49-21 loss to Ohio State. Three quick takeaways from that game. The first, of course, is that Ohio State is an absolute powerhouse. In the argument for best team in the country. But also the Hooisers played at an extremely fast tempo and Simmie Cobbs showed his superstar potential. Cobb was hurt in the second game last season and missed the rest of the year. The former 1,000-yard receiver showed his great talent against Ohio State catching 11 passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. Cobb has an experienced quarterback in Richard Lagow, who threw for 19 touchdowns last year. Now the Hoosiers drop down to Virginia whose defense can't compare to the Buckeyes. The Cavaliers have a solid quarterback, too, in Kurt Benkert. Look for Virginia's offense to be much improved in the second season under Bronco Mendenhall. The key here is tempo with both teams playing fast. | |||||||
09-09-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Syracuse UNDER 76 | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 3 m | Show | |
A lot has to go right for this total to go above this high number. While I do think Middle Tennessee State quarterback Brent Stockstill and Syracuse QB Eric Dungey will put up good numbers, it won't add up enough to go Over. Syracuse displayed some good defense in its 50-7 victory against Central Connecticut last week. Granted that was inferior competition. But I do think the Orange has improved defensively. Middle Tennessee State had problems protected Stockstill in a 28-6 loss to Vanderbilt last week. The Orange also must prove it can protect Dungey now that they are stepping up in class. | |||||||
09-08-17 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Ricky Nolasco is Ricky Nolasco. He's epitomizes a journeyman who eats innings. Nolasco is 6-12 with a 5.08 ERA this season. Mike Leake is set to make his second start for Seattle. His first came against the A's last week and was very good. I don't believe his second is going to go so well. Leake was being pounded during his last four starts with the Cardinals - 23 runs and 34 hits - before coming to the Mariners. Leake has said he has a tired arm. | |||||||
09-08-17 | Astros v. A's OVER 9 | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
The combination of a total less than double-digits, wind blowing out and the top-ranked Astros offense facing Jharel Cotton puts me on the Over. I had high hopes before the season that Cotton was going to be a good pitcher. That hasn't happened. He has a 5.53 ERA and isn't improving. Cotton has yielded four or more runs in six of his last eight starts. He's surrendered 24 homers in 114 innings. Houston ranks first in runs, batting average and is No. 3 in homers. Collin McHugh takes the hill for Houston. McHugh has pitched well, but he's far from dominant. The A's are averaging more than six runs per game during their last three games. | |||||||
09-08-17 | Oklahoma State v. South Alabama OVER 66.5 | Top | 44-7 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 30 m | Show |
This may look like a big total to go over, but it's not given the strength of Oklahoma State's offense and how bad South Alabama is defensively. Mason Rudolph is one of the top QB's in the country and he has a balanced attack. That was evident in Oklahoma State's season-opening, 59-24, win against Tulsa. South Alabama lost its opener, 47-27, to Mississippi. The Jaguars surrendered 531 yards and were non-competitive in the second half when their defense wore down. The Jaguars are missing their top pass rusher from last year, Randy Allen. South Alabama made strides last year. But the Jaguars aren't ready for this caliber of offense. Oklahoma State is the highest ranked opponent to visit Mobile in the Jaguars' nine-year history. The over has cashed now in 10 of South Alabama's last 12 non-conference games. | |||||||
09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -8.5 | Top | 42-27 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 51 m | Show |
There's a double-digit class difference here especially with the Patriots playing at home where they have covered 75 percent of their past 26 games. The Chiefs overachieved to finish 12-4 last season. They ranked 13th in points scored and 20th in yards gained. They also gave up the eighth-most yards. The Chiefs achieved their sterling record by big plays from special teams and a league-best plus 16 turnover ratio. The Patriots aren't going to make mistakes, or get beat on special teams. No team is better coached than New England. New England won the Super Bowl and looks even better on paper this season. Even losing Julian Edelman, Tom Brady still has a wide assortment of weapons, including deep threat Brandin Cooks, a healthy Rob Gronkowski and four verstailte running backs. The Chiefs can't come close to matching that firepower. The Patriots upgraded their secondary, too, signing cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Alex Smith threw for more than 300 yards just once in 16 games last season. He's done that just four times in his last 65 games. So the Chiefs are not a good backdoor type team. Kansas City had a chaotic off-season, too. There were surprising upper management changes with general manager John Dorsey getting fired. Former stalwarts Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin and nose tackle Dontari Poe all moved on. Derrick Johnson and Justin Houston have to prove they are completely healthy. | |||||||
09-07-17 | Marlins -113 v. Braves | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a stop-the-pain game for the Marlins and a favorable matchup for them. Miami has dropped four in a row. But the Marlins have the superior starter going in Dan Straily against Sean Newcomb and ripe circumstances. The Braves aren't playing that well either. They are 16 games under .500 and in full rebuild mode with three-fourths of their infield manned by rookies. Atlanta just played a wild doubleheader on Wednesday splitting against the Rangers with a combined 29 runs being scored. It's left the Braves bullpen carrying a high fatigue rating. Newcomb doesn't go deep into games and walks too many batters averaging six bases on balls per nine innings. Newcomb hasn't been able to record an out past the fifth inning during his last three starts. Atlanta is 2-9 in his last 11 starts. Home run leader Gincarlo Stanton loves Atlanta's Sun Trust Park having homered three times there in six games. Straily should do his part. He's 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA in three starts versus the Braves this season. | |||||||
09-06-17 | Nationals -121 v. Marlins | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Gio Gonzalez is having a huge season and he dominates the Marlins. Gonzalez is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts versus the Marlins this season. The last time he pitched against the Marlins was Aug. 9 when he threw seven innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts. Gonzalez, who is from Miami, is 9-3 career-wise versus the Marlins with a 1.94 ERA in 15 starts. Dillon Peterts is set to make his second big league start for the Marlins. Peters was brilliant in his debut throwing seven scoreless innings against the Phillies this past Friday. Opponents now know about Peters, though, and the Nationals have a much more potent lineup especially with Trea Turner and Jayson Werth back from injury. The Marlins are at low ebb having lost eight of their past nine games to fall out of realistic playoff contention. Concentration could be a problem, too, for the Marlins as they are leaving town following this game. There is much concern about the expected effects of Hurricane Irma. The hurricane is due to strike the Miami area by Sunday morning. So it's understandable if the Marlins aren't completely focused. | |||||||
09-05-17 | Cardinals v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
First off, this game is at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors. Both starters, Michael Wacha and Travis Wood, have strong track records pitching at Petco. Wacha is 2-0 lifetime versus San Diego with a 1.89 ERA in three starts. Both of his victories against the Padres came at Petco. The key is if Wacha is back on track. He had been in a slump, but pitched well in his last start this past Thursday. He held the Giants to one run on four hits in six innings. Yes that came against the weak-hitting Giants. But the Padres are the one team with a worse offense than the Giants. San Diego is last in runs and batting average. The Padres also have hit the second-fewest homers. Wood is a journeyman. Normally I'd like to have a higher total to go under when he pitches. But these aren't normal circumstances because of the Cardinals' multiple injuries. Jedd Gyorko is on the DL. Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler and Kolton Wong all are nursing injuries. There's a chance none of them could be in the lineup leaving the Cardinals with a lot of youth and backup infielders filling up their lineup. Wood has done well when pitching at Petco posting a 1.61 ERA in four starts there. The under is 13-6-1 in the Padres' past 20 home contests. | |||||||
09-05-17 | Cubs -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
The Cubs are looking to redeem themselves after an embarrassing 12-0 loss to the Pirates Monday. They have the right pitching matchup to accomplish just that. Kyle Hendricks led the NL in ERA last season. He's become steady again posting a 2.31 ERA in eight starts since coming off the DL. He hasn't allowed more than three runs during any of those eight outings. Hendricks has a 2.45 ERA in two starts versus Pittsburgh this season. The Cubs have a deeper bullpen, too, than the Pirates and their top bullpen arms are rested. The Pirates are in rebuilt mode. So they've elected to skip Ivan Nova's turn in the rotation in order to look at youngster Steven Brault, who isn't ready to become a big league starter yet. Brault has a 5.93 ERA in 13 2/3 innings. This is his first start of the year. Brault made seven starts for the Pirates last season posting a 4.26 ERA. He holds a hideous 9.35 lifetime ERA versus the Cubs in four appearances. | |||||||
09-04-17 | Rangers +104 v. Braves | 8-2 | Win | 104 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
Texas has been strong during interleague going 12-5. The Rangers should be focused trailing by three games for the second AL wild-card spot. The Braves are going with a lot of youth with three-fourths of their infield being rookies. The only non-rookie in the infield is Freddie Freeman their best player. Freeman is having his wrist examined today so there's a chance he might not be in the lineup. That would be a huge plus for Rangers starter Andrew Cashner, who has been pitching his most consistent ball of his career. Cashner has held five of his last six opponents to two earned runs or less. He went 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA during July/August. The Braves are pitching 42-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. There's always a wild card factor when a knuckleballer takes the mound. But the Rangers have incentive, are going with a hot pitcher and the youthful Braves may not have their full concentration since this is their first game back from a seven-game road trip. | |||||||
09-04-17 | Twins v. Rays -118 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
The Rays rank eighth in the majors in homers. They have hit at least one homer in 14 straight games. The Twins can't match that power. The pitching matchup favors the Rays, too, with Jose Berrios versus Alex Cobb. Berrios has a very high ceiling. But he has not been good on the road going 4-5 with a 5.12 ERA. Cobb is underrated. He should have more wins that he does. He has a 2.20 ERA in his last three starts, none of which resulted in a win for him. Cobb also is 1-0 lifetime against Minnesota with a 2.53 ERA in two career starts. | |||||||
09-04-17 | Edmonton +10.5 v. Calgary | Top | 18-39 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
The Eskimos are calling this their biggest game of the year. The line is inflated so the Eskimos with this many points are the right side. Edmonton has lost two in a row after opening 7-0. I don't see the Eskimos being flat a second straight week. The Eskimos are starting to get their injured players back, including wide receiver Brandon Zylstra. Wide receivers Adarius Bowman and Vidal Hazelton both are expected to play now, too, along with offensive lineman Simeon Rottier. The Stampeders are the best team in the CFL. But Calgary hasn't played an above .500 opponent during its last four games. I don't see the Stampeders winning by double-digits here. | |||||||
09-04-17 | Brewers -114 v. Reds | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
The Brewers regained some needed confidence going 6-2 in their last eight games, including posting a combined five victories against the powerful Dodgers and Nationals. Milwaukee is going with maybe its best pitcher, Chase Anderson. He's been solid in his three starts since returning from the DL. The Brewers have a rested Corey Knebel giving them a strong bullpen edge, too. Anderson is 2-1 with a 2.27 ERA in six career starts versus the Reds. Reds starter Homer Bailey was once a promising pitcher. Injuries have messed him up. He really shouldn't be in a starting rotation with just five quality outings in 13 starts. Bailey is at his worst pitching at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park and during the day. That's the situation for him today. Bailey is 0-5 with a 9.95 ERA at home this season. In day action this season, he's 1-4 with a 13.29 ERA. | |||||||
09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA OVER 58 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Early betting has been on the Over - and that is the right way to go in this matchup. Texas A&M is a scoring machine under Kevin Sumlin averaging 35 or more points in all but one of his five seasons. The Aggies are deep at the skill positions again headed by stars at running back in Trayveon Williams and at wide receiver/returner in Christian Kirk, who caught 83 passes last year. Their offensive line is solid, too. UCLA is breaking in a lot of new defensive starers particularly at linebacker. Defense is where the Aggies took a major hit losing linemen Myles Garrett - the No. 1 overall draft pick - and Daeshon Hall. UCLA is loaded offensively, too, headed by pro prospect quarterback Josh Rosen. The Bruins are a passing team and the Aggies' pass rush should be way down. Rosen was under pressure by the Aggies in last year's game and didn't have one of his better performances. Yet the teams still combined for 55 points and more than 900 yards. The offenses are as strong, if not stronger this season, and the defenses are weaker. So this one goes Over the total. | |||||||
09-03-17 | Angels v. Rangers +121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 121 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
It's no wonder the Rangers have won all five of Martin Perez's last five starts. The southpaw has held four of his past five opponents to two earned runs or less. The Angels have lost the past four times going against a lefty starter. Perez goes for the Rangers here against Angels lefty Andrew Heaney, who is on the comeback trail after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. This marks Heaney's fourth start of the season. He has been up and down, which often is the case for those pitchers in their first year back from serious elbow surgery. The Rangers just saw Heaney on Aug. 23. They smacked three homers off him in five innings in a 7-5 victory. Texas is 18-14 versus southpaw starters this season. Texas is short-handed in the bullpen with setup men Matt Bush and Keone Kela on the DL. But closer Alex Claudio didn't pitch Saturday and the Angels also have an unsettled bullpen without a definitive closer right now. | |||||||
09-02-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -107 | 6-2 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
I like Jon Gray going for me with the Rockies at home and in circle-the-wagons mode. The Rockies have the more rested key relievers and Gray has started to pitch like a No. 1 pitcher, which the Rockies have always envisioned. Gray has a 2.58 ERA in his last six starts. Lefty Patrick Corbin always has been pitching very well lately. But the Rockies are 21-15 versus southpaws and own a good history against Corbin, who has a 5.23 career ERA against Colorado in 15 appearances, including 14 starts. Corbin has a 6.97 ERA in two starts against Colorado earlier this season. | |||||||
09-02-17 | Georgia Southern v. Auburn OVER 52.5 | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 293 h 34 m | Show | |
Auburn coach Gus Malzahn is an offensive whiz. The Tigers are going to be even more dangerous offensively this season with a balanced attack and Chip Lindsay as offensive coordinator to assist Malzahn. Look for the Tigers to do more passing with the emergence of quarterback Jarrett Stidham, a transfer from Baylor who is below the radar right now. He can run and has a strong arm. Auburn has two excellent runners in Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson. They combined to rush for more than 2,100 yards rushing last year. The Tigers also have one of the best kickers in the country, Daniel Carlson. Gerogia Southern allowed at least 30 points in four of its last five games. Auburn scored 51 points and piled up more than 700 yards against Arkansas State last year. That was the Tigers' lone game versus a Sun Belt team. Arkansas State is better defensively than Georgia Southern. The Eagles averaged 26.2 points during their last four games. Their option attack should be improved with Bryan Cook, a disciple of Paul Johnson, brought in as offensive coordinator. | |||||||
09-02-17 | Miami-OH v. Marshall OVER 46 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
The marketplace has knocked this total down enough where there is value going Over. Miami of Ohio's offense took off during the second half of last season once Gus Ragland became the starting quarterback. Ragland had a 17-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's back and he has a full complement of good running backs and receivers at his disposal. Marshall was horrible defensively last year giving up 31 or more points seven times. The Thundering Herd's offense also was down. But I have confidence that Doc Holliday can fix Marshall's offense. Chase Litton is a decent quarterback and Marshall returns its top running backs. It's not too much to ask these two teams to go Over this total now that it's dipped below 47 especially given the quality quarterback play of both teams. | |||||||
09-02-17 | Troy v. Boise State OVER 62 | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 6 m | Show |
Plenty of up-tempo and speed here. More than enough to take this total over with all the offensive playmakers these teams possess. It's not a fluke each team averaged nearly 35 points per game. Troy is for real. The Trojans have more than enough offense to compete here with quarterback Brandon Silvers and nearly all of his receivers back along with running back Jordan Chunn, who also can catch. Boise State had only nine takeaways last season and lack the personnel to handle all of Troy's receiving weapons. The Trojans' drop is on defense against this caliber of opponent on the road. Spearheaded by Brett Rypien, the Broncos ranked 15th in passing offense. They have a balanced offense, too. | |||||||
09-01-17 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7 | 1-0 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
A pitching matchup of Clayton Kershaw versus unpredictable Dinelson Lamet could produce a 1-0 game. It also result in Kershaw only pitching five innings and Lamet getting absoultely shelled. Kershaw will be pitching in the majors for the first time in 5 1/2 weeks. The Dodgers are going to limit him to around 75 pitches. Kershaw is Kershaw, but you're not getting him for his normal amount of innings. Plus there very well could be a rust factor. As great as he is, Kershaw has allowed a career-worst 18 homers this year. Historically the Over has been a great play when Kershaw pitches at Petco Park because of a low total like this. The over has cashed seven of the last eight times Kershaw has faced the Padres on the road. Lamet has intriguing stuff. But he's a highly inconsistent rookie. He also hasn't been that good at Petco with a 3.98 ERA in seven home outings. The Dodgers have a lot of professional hitters who can take advantage of Lamet's youth by not helping him out with bad swings. | |||||||
09-01-17 | Rays v. White Sox +1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
The White Sox are in the midst of a full blown youth movement and have a couple key hitters hurt. But they are a respectable 6-6 in their last 12 games and I don't believe Blake Snell should be this high of a road favorite. So that allows me to get involved on the run line. The Rays have a losing road record on the season. Snell has been pitching better. But he's more effective pitching at Tropicana Field, which is turf. His road ERA is 4.76. The Rays are 5-12 in Snell's last 17 away starts. Only once during their last 12 road contests have the Rays managed to string together consecutive victories. They are off a win against the Royals in their last game. Reynaldo Lopez is set to make his third start of the year. He had been on DL due to a back strain. He says he's 100 percent now and ready to pitch his best ball. I liked Lopez's potential whe he was with the Nationals last year. The Rays have never seen him. | |||||||
09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado -6 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 133 h 6 m | Show |
This is a tough spot for Colorado State having opened with a victory this past Saturday against Oregon State in impressive style at their new $220 million dollar stadium. The Rams have to travel to Denver for this neutral site game with one less day of normal practice time. That's going to hurt them against the up-tempo Buffaloes especially in high altitude. Colorado buried the Rams, 44-7, last year. While I don't see the score being that lopsided again, Colorado is a clear right side and should win by double-digits. Don't be fooled by the Rams returning nine starters on defense. Their defense still is inexperienced and not good. The Buffaloes have a high powered attack with excellent receiving depth, a stud running back in Phillip Lindsay and an upgrade at quarterback with Sefo Liufau. Colorado State isn't going to be able to trade points with the Bufaloes. | |||||||
09-01-17 | Phillies v. Marlins OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
There's a very real possibility Gincarlo Stanton adds to his major league-best 51 home run total here. That's because the Marlins are going against rookie Nick Pivetta. The Phillies have decided to keep Pivetta in the rotation letting him take his lumps as the youngster gains big league experience. That's a plus for those going Over. It's not a fluke the Over is 6-2-1 in Pivetta's last nine starts. Pivetta was more effective when the league hadn't learned about him. But he's a known commodity now with a 9.22 ERA during the second half of the season and a 7.62 road ERA. This will be the third time the Marlins have seen him. Right-handers are crushing the right-handed Pivetta batting .319 against him with a 1.026 OPS. He's surrendered 16 homers in 100 innings. Dillon Peters is going to make his big league debut. He's making the jump from Double A. Peters is a wild card. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, though, and hasn't ptiched in a week. It shouldn't be too much to ask of each team to produce at least four runs apiece in this pitching matchup. The hitters shouldn't be hinderd either by the home plate umpire, Dan Iassogna. The Over is 29-20 (59 percent) during the last two years when he's been the home plate umpire. | |||||||
08-31-17 | Buffalo +24 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
There's some hype here this being P.J. Fleck's first game as head coach of Minnesota. I like Fleck. But his Gophers are far from a powerhouse. They can't cover a number this high against an improved Buffalo squad. Fleck inherits a very young team with only four players on offense and four on defense who have started double-digit games during their careers. Nearly half of Minnesota's players are either freshmen or redshirt freshmen. The Gophers have a solid ground attack, but are untested at quarterback. Denny Croft and Conor Rhoda both should play under center. They've combined for only 34 career throws and one start. Minnesota ranked 111th in passing offense last year. Buffalo should be much better than its 2-10 mark of last season. Tyree Jackson is a dual threat quarterback, who flashed last season. His new quarterback coach is Jim Zebrowski, who was fired at Minnesota following the 2015 season. So he'll know the Gophers. The Bulls took their lumps defensively last season being extremely young. They return eight defensive starters. | |||||||
08-30-17 | A's +130 v. Angels | 8-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
The Angels are going for a three-game sweep of the A's at home today. I don't see them getting it. The A's have proven resilient going 10-4 the past 14 times when playing Game 3 of a series. Before their two losses to open this series, the A's had gone 4-1. Oakland starter Kendall Graveman is hitting his stride after being out more than two months. He has a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts spanning 20 innings. Graveman has a 3.19 career ERA against the Angels in nine starts. Mike Trout has missed the last two games due to a stiff neck and is questionable. Trout has failed to get a hit in his last 17 at bats. Angels starter rookie Parker Bridwell has pitched better than anyone expected with a 2.89 ERA in nine starts. Bridwell is due for some regression and hasn't pitched as well at home where his ERA is 3.56. | |||||||
08-30-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -113 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
After facing southpaw Drew Pomeranz, who has been hot, and Chris Sale, the premier lefty in the American League, the Blue Jays now get righty Rick Porcello. That's a big dropoff. Porcello has yielded a career-worst 31 homers already this season and is coming off a Friday start against the Orioles where he gave up 11 runs on nine hits in fewer than five innings, although it should be noted seven of those runs were unearned. Porcello has a 4.70 career ERA versus the Blue Jays in 18 outings, including 17 starts. The Blue Jays have hit the 13th most homers in the majors. Boston is a highly-impressive 60-42 against righties. The Red Sox, however, are only 15-15 versus lefty starters. They were under .500 against southpaws until beating Toronto and Brett Anderson, 3-0, last night. The much traveled and injured Anderson, though, pitched well against the Red Sox holding them to one run on six hits with no walks in 5 2/3 innings. Southpaw J.A. Happ is better than Anderson and he goes against the Red Sox today. Happ went 20-4 with a 3.18 ERA last year. Happ isn't having that kind of season this year, but he's been solid holding eight of his last 12 opponents to two earned runs or fewer. He has a 3.66 career ERA in 13 starts against Boston. The Red Sox remain without two key players, second baseman Dustin Pedroia and center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. | |||||||
08-29-17 | A's v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
Two bad starting pitchers and two bad bullpen with an opening total of less than double-digits puts me strongly on the Over here. The A's are going with Chris Smith. He's a 36-year-old career minor leaguer with a 5.56 ERA. Smith is prone to the long ball and doesn't miss many bats. That's a bad combination. Smith has made seven big league starts and has yet to win. In all but one of his past five starts, Smith has allowed four or more runs. Smith probably is going to have to deal with Mike Trout, too. Trout is expected back after missing Monday's game with a stiff neck. Angels starter Troy Scribner has a 4.00 ERA - and he's lucky to have that considering how many hard hit balls he's given up. Prior to last night, the Angels had scored at least five runs in seven of their past 10 games while the A's had scored six or more runs in four of their past five games. Look for both team's hitting to return in this batter-friendly matchup. Neither pitcher will be getting any help from the weather with the forecast calling for slight winds blowing out. | |||||||
08-28-17 | Red Sox +108 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-5 | Win | 108 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
Getting out of Boston is the tonic for the Red Sox, who were just swept at home by the Orioles. Now the Red Sox head to Toronto. They are 7-3 against the Blue Jays this season, including 5-1 at Rogers Centre. The Red Sox are one of the best teams in baseball. They'll find themselves. The Blue Jays won't. Toronto is eight games below .500 and are 2-7 in its last nine games. The Blue Jays are 11-19 versus left-handed starters this year and facing hot southpaw Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz has won his last seven decisions. He has a 1.59 ERA during his past five starts. Pomeranz always had talent he was just held back by injuries. Now he's dealing and has a strong history against the Blue Jays going 2-1 with a 2.11 ERA. He's 2-0 versus Toronto this season with a 0.71 ERA. Marcus Stroman is a good pitcher. But he's not in the form Pomeranz is and has a worse bullpen behind him. Stroman was hit hard in his last outing giving up five runs on eight hits - including three homers - in 5 1/3 innings against the Rays this past Wednesday. Stroman has a 4.47 career ERA in nine starts against Boston. He's 0-1 versus the Red Sox with a 4.76 ERA in two starts this year. | |||||||
08-27-17 | Astros -122 v. Angels | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
The Astros have a lot going for them in this bounce back spot after blowing Saturday's game to the Angels, 7-6. Jose Altuve may be the best player in the American League and he's back in the lineup. So is catcher Brian McCann, who has nine homers in 73 career at bats against Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco, a career journeyman, opposes Charie Morton, who is having perhaps his finest season. The right-handed Nolasco's ERA is above 5.00. The Astros average just a shade under six runs per game versus righty starters. The Angels have lost seven of the past 10 times Nolasco has pitched at home. Houston has won 67 percent of its last 61 road contests. Morton is 2-0 lifetime versus the Angels with a 3.24 ERA in three starts. If Altuve isn't the best player in the American League than Mike Trout is Trout, however, is hitless in his last four games. | |||||||
08-26-17 | Rice v. Stanford OVER 50.5 | Top | 7-62 | Win | 100 | 104 h 6 m | Show |
Stanford lost a lot of defensive talent from last year, but still has more than enough offense to put up big numbers against one of the worst defenses in the country. Rice surrendered more than 37 points per game last season and gave up the sixth-most yards in the country. Opponents averaged a whopping 7.4 yards per play versus the Owls. The Owls are underrated offensively, though, thanks to a strong offensive line. The Cardinal are breaking in new safeties and minus star pass rusher Solomon Thomas. Stanford doesn't have dynamic Christian McCaffrey any more, but are deep at running back and its offensive line is healthy. | |||||||
08-26-17 | Giants +112 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
The Giants are not a team to back on the road - except in a case like this with Madison Bumgarner opening as a 'dog against a cold pitcher. Pride is at stake for Bumgarner, who has a winning record and 2.81 ERA in eight starts since returning from the DL. Bumgarner has held opponents to one earned run or fewer in four of his last six starts. Bumgarner also has a lifetime winning mark versus the Diamondbacks with a 2.58 ERA in 28 appearances, including 27 starts. Bumgarner certainly can be counted on to give San Francisco a quality performance here. The same can't be said for Arizona starter Taijuan Walker. The Diamondbacks have lost seven of the last eight times Walker has pitched. Walker is winless during his past 10 starts and has a 4.76 ERA in three starts against the Giants this year. | |||||||
08-26-17 | Oregon State v. Colorado State -3.5 | 27-58 | Win | 100 | 74 h 59 m | Show | |
The class difference is above the spread in this matchup. The Rams are a touchdown better than Oregon State especially playing at home. The Rams averaged 35.3 points a game last season. The Beavers don't have the defense to slow down Colorado State and their offense isn't balanced because of a weak passing attack. Jake Luton, a JC transfer, is untested and faced with a thin and inexperienced wide receiving group. Colorado State QB Nick Stevens can be highly effective against a vulnerable Oregon State secondary. The Rams played their best ball during the second half of last season averaging more than 46 points a game during their last six games. The Beavers have yet to win a road game in two years under Gary Anderson losing by an average of more than three touchdowns. Note, too, the Rams are 14-4-1 ATS during their last 19 non-conference games. | |||||||
08-25-17 | Astros -110 v. Angels | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
The Astros aren't playing well losing 16 of their last 25. They aren't likely to have AL batting leader Jose Altuve either. But I like them, especially at this price, to take care of business against the Angels. Houston is 8-0 the past eight times Collin McHugh has started against the Angels. He gets the call here looking better and better since returning from an elbow injury that had sidelined him for much of the season. McHugh blanked the A's in his last start this past Saturday going six innings. McHugh has a 2.55 lifetime ERA versus the Angels. That ERA shrinks even more to 2.25 when he's pitched at Angel Stadium. Mike Trout is the key to the Angels and he's in a 3-for-23 slump. Parker Bridwell has been a major surprise for the Angels. The Angels are unbeaten in his last eight starts. I don't see that continuing. McHugh is the better pitcher and the Astros are the superior team even without Altuve. | |||||||
08-25-17 | Saskatchewan +6 v. Edmonton | Top | 54-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show |
Saskatchewan is coming on and this spot sets up well for the Roughriders. The Roughriders have won three of their last five and off probably their most impressive performance of the season beating BC, 41-8, two weeks ago. Saskatchewan was idle last week. Both their offensive and defensive line played well for Saskatchewan in that win against BC. Kevin Glenn has thrown 14 TD passes in seven games. Edmonton lost for the first time this season falling on the road to Winnipeg last week. The Eskimos may be down following that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead matchup for their next game when they meet Calgary with first place in the Western Division at stake. Given their lengthy injury list, it's not surprising the Eskimos finallly lost after opening with seven consecutive victories. They have close to 20 players hurt, including JC Sherritt, Adarius Bowman, John White, Brandon Zylstra, Almondo Sewell and Marcus Howard. The Roughriders have lost 15 straight road games versus division foes. Expect that to change with Chris Jones in charge. This is just Jones' second year as Roughriders coach. He's one of the top coaches in the league. Edmonton has failed to cover in 10 of its last 14 home games. The Eskimos also haven't covered during their past three games against the Roughriders with two of the past three going into overtime. | |||||||
08-24-17 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
All signs are in place for these two teams to combine for double-digit scoring. The Rangers are averaging 7.2 runs during their last 10 games. The Angels are averaging 5.8 runs in their past six games. Rangers starter Martin Perez has a 5.26 ERA. Perez is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter and not a very good one. His ERA is even higher when pitching at Angel Stadium where he's 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA in four lifetime starts. The Angels have dealt with numerous pitching injuries so up from the minors comes Troy Scribner to start here. He's replacing JC Ramirez. Scribner had a 4.35 ERA for Salt Lake in Triple A this season. Both bullpens are vulnerable and carry high fatigue ratings. Rangers closer Alex Claudio worked two innings throwing 32 pitches in last night's extra inning game. The Angels are still searching for their closer. The weather forecast is for a slight wind to be blowing out. Adrian Johnson is slated to be the home plate umpire. The Over has cashed 63 percent of the time during the 48 times he's been behind the plate the past two seasons. | |||||||
08-24-17 | Diamondbacks -139 v. Mets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks are the far superior team and have a strong pitching edge, too, in this matchup. All-Star Robbie Rays returns from a concussion. The Diamondbacks have been extra careful with him. Now he's ready. Ray is one of the top strikeout pitchers in baseball. He also has a 0.53 lifetime ERA in 17 innings versus the Mets. New York, losers of eight of its last 10, are starting Rafael Montero. He's only in the Mets' starting rotation due to a cluster injury problem that has sidelined all of the Mets' projected starters except Jacob deGrom. Montero is 1-7 at home with a 5.89 ERA. Arizona has a top-10 offense, while the Mets have failed to score more than four runs in eight of their last 10 games having traded many of their front line players in an effort to rebuild. | |||||||
08-23-17 | Diamondbacks -154 v. Mets | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -154 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
Unless Jacob deGrom is pitching, the Mets are clear fade material. The Mets are 7-19 in their last 26 games putting them at a season-worst 16 games below .500. New York has dropped eight of its past nine games. The Mets also can't beat Arizona having lost 10 of their last 11 to the Diamondbacks. The Mets only have a few of their projected starters. They just lost All-Star outfielder Michael Conforto to a thumb injury. This leaves the Mets with an extremely weak lineup. The Diamondbacks have a top-10 offense, are in a playoff race and have the superior pitching matchup with Zack Godley opposing rookie Chris Flexen. Godley has pitched much better than his 5-6 record. He holds a 3.13 ERA and averages more than nine strikeouts per nine innings. Godley has a 1.80 career ERA in 15 innings against the Mets. Flexen has been pushed to the big league level due to the many Mets pitching injuries, which include all of their starters except deGrom. Flexen, who went directly to the majors from Class AA skipping Triple A, has a 6.55 ERA and control problems having given up four or more walks in three of his last five starts.He has issued more bases on balls than he has strikeouts. | |||||||
08-22-17 | Diamondbacks v. Mets OVER 9 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Tommy Milone is getting a start here for the Mets and the weather forecast is for wind to be blowing out at 16 mph. The Diamondbacks have a top 10 offense. Enough said. Just in case you want more, here are the gory details about Milone: He's only pitching because the Mets lost another starting pitcher with Steven Matz going on the DL. Milone hasn't pitched in the big leagues since May because he's terrible and he also was out with a knee sprain. He had made three starts this season for the Mets compiling a 10.50 ERA. He has a 7.59 lifetime ERA against the Diamondbacks in two starts. Patrick Corbin is pitching well for Arizona. However, he has a 6.04 lifetime ERA versus the Mets in six appearances, including five starts. The Over has won 69 percent of the time during Corbin's last 54 road starts. | |||||||
08-22-17 | Diamondbacks -163 v. Mets | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Do you recall journeyman Tommy Milone? Here's a refresher. He began the year with the Brewers before being cut. The Mets picked him up and actually gave him three early-season starts. Milone went 0-2 with a 10.50 ERA during those outings before suffering a knee injury. Now Milone has resurfaced due to yet another Mets starting pitcher injury with Steven Matz done for the year. The Mets are now down five starting pitchers. Hence, Milone being back in the bigs - at least for now. Milone has made two career starts against the Diamondbacks. Not surprisingly they didn't go well. He's 0-1 lifetime against them with a 7.59 ERA. The Mets are at low ebb. They have waved the white flag dealing a number of their veterans. New York has dropped seven of its last eight games and have lost 25 of the past 38 times when facing an above .500 foe. The Mets also have lost nine of their last 10 to the Diamondbacks. Arizona starter Patrick Corbin is pitching his best ball. He held the Cubs and Astros - two far better offensive teams than the Mets - scoreless during his last two starts spanning 15 1/3 innings. Corbin has a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those last two games. Since All-Star break, Corbin has gone 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA in seven starts. | |||||||
08-21-17 | Rangers +137 v. Angels | Top | 5-3 | Win | 137 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
This is big game for the Rangers, who trail the Twins and Angels by 2 1/2 games for the last wild card spot. Cole Hamels is a big-game pitcher and has a strong history versus the Angels. He also has been very good since July. Hamels is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA from July on. He is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in seven lfetime games against the Angels, including posting a 0.61 ERA in two starts this season. Tyler Skaggs has pitched decently since coming off the DL following being out for three months with a strained obligue. Skaggs doesn't have Hamels' big game experience, though, and has a 5.46 career mark against the Rangers in six starts, including two this season. The Rangers will be without slugger Joey Gallo and Carlos Gomez. These are two streaky players, though, who don't hit for a high average. The Rangers are averaging 7.4 runs during their last 10 games. Texas has less of a distance to travel for this game than the Angels, who are returning home from the East Coast. The Angels haven't been home since Aug. 9. So the spot isn't good for them mentally returning to Anaheim for the first time in such a long while. | |||||||
08-20-17 | Saints v. Chargers -3 | Top | 13-7 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 3 m | Show |
The Saints and Chargers conducted a joint 2 1/2-hour practice session on Thursday. The Chargers outplayed the Saints by a wide margin during seven-on-seven drills. Philip Rivers and Los Angeles' offense was much sharper than Drew Brees and New Orleans' offense. The Saints wide receivers had trouble separating themselves from the Chargers' talented cornerbacks and Brees didn't have enough time to find them. That's one indication how this preseason game might turn out. But of equal, if not stronger importance, is the motivation angle. This is the Chargers' first season playing in Los Angeles. They laid an egg at home in their first preseason game falling to the Seahawks, 48-17, last Sunday. The Chargers also have a first-year head coach, Anthony Lynn. The Chargers won't play at home again until Sept. 17. Their next three games are all on the road. So this becomes much more than just a preseason game for the Chargers. Lynn wants to get the new fans on his side and build interest. Lynn wants to win this game very bad. Saints coach Sean Payton doesn't. Payton is one of those coaches like Mike Tomlin who doesn't care about preseason. That's reflected in the Saints losing and failing to cover in their last eight August preseason games, including losing to the Browns, 20-14, last week. Payton isn't going to take any chances with Brees, nor even with second-stringer Chase Daniel. This means likely big minutes for Garrett Grayson and Ryan Nassib. These are very bad quarterbacks. I like Rivers and his backup quarterbacks - Kellen Clemens and Cardale Jones - better. | |||||||
08-20-17 | Nationals -103 v. Padres | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Even without Bryce Harper, Trea Turner and Daniel Murphy, if he's resting another game, Washington still is vastly superior to San Diego. The Nationals have won 13 of their last 19 road games and own a huge pitching matchup here with Gio Gonzalez facing rookie Dinelson Lamet. Gonzalez is pitching his best ball with a 3-0 mark and 0.43 ERA in his last three starts. The lefty has gone at least six innings during 13 of his past 14 starts. San Diego is 13-19 versus lefty starters and has lost 20 more games than the Nationals. Lamet has intiguing stuff. But he's very raw and inconsistent. His ERA at Petco Park is 3.75, which isn't impressive considering Petco is the premier pitching park in the majors. | |||||||
08-19-17 | Bears v. Cardinals -3 | Top | 24-23 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
Not only are the Cardinals the much better team, but they are home and have the advantage of having already played two preseason games while the Bears have only been in action once. Arizona is giving up an average of just 15 points in its two games. The Bears' defense isn't nearly as good. Cardinals quarterbacks Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert can take advantage of a vulnerable Chicago secondary. Gabbert played well in Arizona's first preseason game versus Dallas. Stanton looked the best he's ever looked with the Cardinals last week against the Raiders. By contrast, Mike Glennon looked horrible for the Bears. While Palmer and Stanton know their team's system, Glennon is rusty and has yet to get comfortable with the Bears. Backup rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky played great in the Bears' 24-17 home loss to the Broncos last week. Trubisky caught the Broncos by surprise since they had no film on him. The Cardinals have an idea about Trubisky now. So I'm not expecting Trubisky to perform nearly as well on the road against an aggressive Cardinals defense. | |||||||
08-19-17 | Diamondbacks -141 v. Twins | 0-5 | Loss | -141 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
Zack Greinke remans an elite pitcher. Jose Berrios has a high ceiling, but has been struggling after a bright beginning following being called up from the minors. Berrios has a 7.04 ERA in his last three starts. Greinke is 3-0 with a 0.65 ERA in four interleague starts this year. Greinke knows the AL well. Berriors does not know the NL and the Diamondbacks have a very strong hittling lineup made stronger if J.D. Martinez is able to play after sitting out yesterday due to illness. Arizona is 11-4 in its last 15 interleague games. | |||||||
08-19-17 | Indians v. Royals +123 | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm going to fade Trevor Bauer as a road favorite. Bauer doesn't have a good road mark this season - 4-5 with a 6.32 ERA - and is in the unusual spot of pitching for the third time in less than a week having pitched in relief just two days ago. The Indians are playing well. The Royals, though, had won four of their last five before getting trounced by the Indians last night. That was going against Corey Kluber, though. Jason Vargas had a great June and a bad July. He was back on his game during his last start this past Sunday holding the White Sox to three runs on six hits in six innings. Vargas isn't as good as he was early in the year. But he's not as bad as he looked last month. Vargas has pitched his best this season versus Cleveland going 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in three starts. He is pitching on five days rest. Kansas City is 10-2 the past 12 times Vargas has gone on five days rest. | |||||||
08-18-17 | Ottawa v. Hamilton +3.5 | 37-18 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks probably are better than their 1-6-1 record. But that's said every week - and they've failed to win in seven of their eight games. Now the snake bit Redblacks are laying more than a field goal on the road. I don't see it. Hamilton has a terrible record, too, at 0-7. But aside rom a 60-1 no-show against the Stampeders, the Tiger-Cats have had some good stretches during the season. They can't buy a win either just like Ottawa. The Redblacks have failed to pass for more than 300 yards during their last three games. Despite their horrendous record, they could enter this matchup overconfident. Ottawa isn't good enough to cover as road chalk without a very good performance. The Redblacks have shot themselves in the foot all year. I don't care for their coaching. Even though they are 0-7, the Tiger-Cats still harbor playoff hopes being fortunate to reside in the East Division where every team has a losing record. I expect Hamilton to put forth a strong effort at home. | |||||||
08-18-17 | Dodgers v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
It wouldn't shock me to see the Dodgers lose this game. The spot is ripe for the Tigers to pull an upset here. But I'm not crazy enough to stand in the Dodgers' way. They are a mind-boggling 50-9 in their last 59 games. That's why I'm taking the Tigers plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line. The Dodgers were idle Thursday. That could cool them off. This also is their first game away from the West Coast in 12 days. It's a three-hour time difference for them. The pitching matchup is lefty Rich Hill versus Jordan Zimmerman. Hill is vulnerable at big chalk because of his tendency to develop blisters and leave games early. The Tigers have a winning home mark and also a winning record against southpaws. Detroit was idle Thursday, too. The Tigers have won 18 of the past 26 times following an off day. The Tigers also have other impressive trends that fit this situation: They have won 69 percent of their last 131 interleague home games. They are 29-10 the last 39 times they've gone against a lefty starter at Comerica Park. Zimmerman is a pitcher I have always liked. Injuries and a switch to the American League have derailed him. But he's still effective when he's healthy, which he is now. He's turned in three quality outings during his last four starts. Zimmerman has experience handling the Dodgers, too, having made eight starts against them when he was with the Nationals. Zimmerman has a 2.11 ERA during his past four starts versus the Dodgers. | |||||||
08-18-17 | Yankees v. Red Sox -121 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Injuries not talent has been what has held Drew Pomeranz back. Pomeranz has been healthy the past two months and it has shown in his stats. He's given up three earned runs or less in 10 of his past 11 starts. It's not a fluke either. The talent is there backed by strong peripherals. Pomeranz has averaged more than one strikeout per inning. Boston is 7-2 in Pomeranz's last nine starts. Jordan Montgomery can't match that. New York is 1-6 the past seven times Montgomery has faced an above .500 team. The Yankees beat up on the battered Mets, but are stepping way up in class here. Boston has won eight of its last nine home games. The Red Sox also have won the last four times Pomeranz faced the Yankees. | |||||||
08-17-17 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg OVER 58.5 | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Look for a quarterback shootout here between Mike Reilly and Winnipeg's Matt Nichols. The Eskimos are averaging more than 29 points a game with Reilly and rank No. 1 in yards gained. Reilly has thrown the third most touchdowns and third most yards in the CFL this season. Edmonton's offense should be even better with the expected return of offensive line starters Danny Groulx and Justin Soresnon. Also Duke Williams should be back. He's one of the Edmonton's better receivers. Winnipeg gives up the second-most points in the CFL. But the Blue Bombers are the No. 2 scoring team in the league with Nichols developing into a star. Winnipeg has scored 33 or more points in each of its last five games. Nichols catches a break in that the Eskimos have a cluster injury problem in their defensive line. Note, too, the Over has cashed seven of the last eight times when the Blue Bombers have met a foe from the Western Division. | |||||||
08-17-17 | White Sox v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This series has only gone under once during the past nine games played in Arlington. Look for the Over trend to continue today with a pitching matchup of Reynaldo Lopez versus Tyson Ross. I can easily envision each team scoring at least five runs apiece. The Rangers have scored six or more runs in five of their last six games. They are averaging more than nine runs during their last three games. Lopez will be making his second start of the year. He had a 4.91 ERA pitching for Washington last season making 11 appearances, including six starts. Lopez has a high ceiling, but isn't major league caliber yet and not used to facing AL teams and a DH. Pitching at Arlington this time of season - when the weather is hot and muggy - is very rough, too. It really favors the hitters. Ross is working his way back into shape following assorted injuries. His control and stamina remain lacking. He's worked fewer than six innings in all but one of his eight starts and he yielded five walks during his last start this past Saturday in fewer than six innings. | |||||||
08-16-17 | Braves v. Rockies -153 | Top | 2-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
The Braves nipped the Rockies, 4-3, Tuesday night. Before that game, Atlanta had lost 11 in a row at Coors Field. Look for the Braves to begin a new losing streak at Coors starting with today's game. The Braves have been looking more like the rebuilding team that they are. They're playing young players and still missing injured Matt Kemp. This is reflected in 16 losses in the Braves' past 22 games. The Rockies have their best pitcher, Jon Gray, going and closer Greg Holland is rested. Gray has shown he can pitch well at Coors Field going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four home starts this season. He was 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two starts versus the Braves last season. Mike Foltynewicz is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter who is showing signs of hitting the wall. He has an 8.31 ERA during his last three starts of which only one lasted more than four innings. Foltynewicz has a 4.88 road ERA. Foltynewicz has to deal with a Rockies lineup that is far more dangerous than Atlanta's offense. Only two teams rank higher than Colorado in runs and batting average. | |||||||
08-15-17 | Giants -107 v. Marlins | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a lost season for the Giants. They've been particularly bad on the road going 20-41. So normally they are a team to avoid especially in away circumstances such as this. But the team still has some prideful veterans and they will play hard here for Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner doesn't have the wins to show for it, but he's pitching like the four-time All-Star that he is. Since coming off the DL during the middle of last month, Bumgarner has posted a 2.52 ERA. He has a 1.29 ERA during his past three starts. Dan Straily posted a 3.31 ERA in the first half of the season. Straily has hit a wall, though, going 0-4 with a 5.17 ERA during the second half of the year. The Marlins have lost each of the last six times Straily has pitched. | |||||||
08-15-17 | Mets +125 v. Yankees | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
The Yankees aren't that good where they can lay a price like this against Jacob deGrom. Both teams take a lot of pride in this Subway Series and the Mets have their best pitcher going here. deGrom can take his place among any to be nominated as the hottest pitcher in baseball. He is 9-2 with a 1.82 ERA and 85 strikeouts during his last 79 1/3 innings. The Yankees beat the Mets, 4-2, last night. The Yankees have lost five of the past six times following a win. They are averaging just 3.2 runs in their last five games. I'm not sold that Sonny Gray is an elite pitcher. I wouldn't put him in deGrom's class. Gray has to prove he can pitch effectively away from spacious Oakland Coliseum. His road ERA this season is 3.75. This is a home game for him, but he hasn't pitched at Yankee Stadium all year. Gray is going to have to deal with streaky Yoenis Cespedes, who is hot with four homers in his last six games, including three in the last three games. | |||||||
08-15-17 | Astros -109 v. Diamondbacks | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
I see the Astros breaking out of their slump here. Houston is 7-1 in Brad Peacock's last eight starts. That's not a fluke stat. Peacock has tremendous stuff. The Diamondbacks are without their most underrated player, David Perralta. He's on paternity leave. There's a monster drop from Peralta to Gregor Blanco. The Astros still are the No. 1 offensive team in baseball. They should be able to rough up Anthony Banda, making only his fourth big league start. Banda has a 4.60 ERA and opposing teams now have three previous starts to gather information from. Banda would not be in the rotation if it weren't for Robbie Ray being on the DL. | |||||||
08-14-17 | Royals v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
Only once in their last nine games have the Royals gone under the total. Look for another Over in today's Royals game as Kansas City plays Oakland. The Royals have scored five or more runs in four of their last five games. The A's are swinging hot bats, too, scoring 19 runs in their last three games. The starting pitching matchup is Royals rookie Jake Junis, who carries a 4.70 ERA, facing Jharel Cotton. Junis has been shuttling back and forth from the majors to the minors. He's too inconsisent now for the Royals to trust. Cotton has been a major disappointment with a 5.72 ERA. Cotton has been horrible since returning from the DL. He has an 8.59 ERA in his last three starts. The Royals' bullpen is worn down while the A's bullpen is depleted and totally unreliable following trades. Oakland Coliseum is a pitcher's park. But this is negated by the weather forecast that calls for 16 mph winds blowing out to right. | |||||||
08-13-17 | BC -130 v. Saskatchewan | 8-41 | Loss | -130 | 36 h 11 m | Show | |
BC is the superior team here. The Lions are 5-2. Their two losses have each come to unbeaten Edmonton. The Lions have won their other five games by an average of 10.6 points per game. This includes a 30-15 home victory against Saskatchewan last week. That game wasn't even as close as the 15-point final, BC jumped to a 30-0 lead and let down in the fourth quarter allowing the Roughriders to score a couple of garbage touchdowns with their backup quarterback. Saskatchewan is 2-4. The Roughriders remain inconsistent. They have trouble protecting quarterback Kevin Glenn. Worse, the Roughriders still can't beat a Western Division opponent. They are 1-12 in their last 13 games versus Western foes, including being winless this season. Going back even more, the Roughriders have lost 26 of their past 29 matchups against Western Division opponents. The Roughriders were disappointing last year. They opened 1-5 in 2016. They aren't much better at 2-4 this season. Sure it's a revenge spot for the Roughriders. That, and home field advantage, make this a low spread. Low enough where it's worth a money line play. But the Lions are much the better team. They are 13-5 ATS during their past 18 road games, including 3-1 SU and ATS this year. The Roughriders have failed to cover the last five times they've hosted BC. | |||||||
08-13-17 | Angels v. Mariners -126 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The Angels are going for a four-game road sweep of the Mariners. The oddsmaker doesn't see the Angels getting it making Seattle favored. I don't either. I like the Mariners in this circle-the-wagons game for them. Angels starter Parker Bridwell has been a revelation. The Angels are 10-1 in his 11 starts. Bridwell isn't this good. The Mariners know that first hand. They dealt the Angels their lone loss when Bridwell started winning, 10-0, in Anaheim on June 30. The Mariners scored five earned runs off him on 11 hits in six innings. The Angels' bullpen has outpitched the Mariners' relievers in this series. I don't see that continuing either. The Angels are unsettled at closer with Bud Norris being demoted. Ariel Miranda gets the start for Seattle. He was the pitcher who beat Bridwell in that June 30 games. Miranda threw seven shutout innings allowing only two hits and two walks. He also defeated the Angels, 11-3, back in May. Miranda's career mark versus the Angels is 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA. I have a lot of confidence in him against this opponent. | |||||||
08-12-17 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks +121 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 121 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
Jon Lester has a 4.25 road ERA and is vulnerable to strong base stealing teams such as the Diamondbacks. Nobody knows this better than Arizona manager Tony Lovullo, who was a bench coach and running game coordinator for the Red Sox and worked closely with Lester when the two were in Boston together. The Diamondbacks rank fifth in the majors with 77 stolen bases. The southpaw Lester gave up the most stolen bases in 2015 with a staggering 44 and is tied for fourth in allowing the most steals this season. Lester has a 4.94 lifetime ERA in five starts against Arizona. Making matters worse for Lester and the Cubs is their catcher, Wilson Contreras, is out with a right hamstring strain. Not only was Contreras having a big year with the bat - 21 homers and 70 RBIs - but he had thrown out 20 base stealers. The Cubs' catching options now are Alex Avila, who caught yesterday, and rookie Victor Caratini. Avila has played only five games with the Cubs. Neither has experience with Lester. Patrick Corbin will start for Arizona. Corbin didn't allow more than two earned runs during four consecutive starts from July 9-26. He's been hurt by shoddy defense in his last two starts with four unearned runs. Corbin has pitched much better at Chase Field with a 6-3 mark and 3.14 ERA this season. The roof is going to be closed for this game, which hurts the power for both teams. It's a break, though, for the Diamondbacks because they have by far the better running game. The Cubs rank 25th in steals. The Diamondbacks have been highly successful against lefty starters at home winning 12 of the past 15 times. | |||||||
08-11-17 | Rockies -111 v. Marlins | 3-6 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
The Rockies are a better team than the Marlins, who are in rebuild mode. The price is low enough to get involved with Colorado especially with a pitching matchup of Jon Gray versus Jose Urena. Gray is the Rockies' best pitcher - and now he is pitching like it with a 2.84 ERA and an 18-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last three starts. Colorado is 7-3 in Gray's last 10 starts. Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna are the Marlins' best players and Ozuna is in a slump with just four hits during his past 27 at bats. The Marlins are 5-14 during Urena's last 19 home starts. Urena also has been pitching well lately, but he's a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He's not in Gray's class. The spot sets up well, too, for Colorado. The Rockies were idle Thursday while the Marlins were playing for the 20th time in 21 days. The Rockies are 17-6 the past 23 times they've played following an off day. | |||||||
08-11-17 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9.5 | 7-6 | Loss | -125 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
The Mets put up 10 runs on the Phillies Thursday. Prior to that, however, New York was averaging just 2.4 runs in its last 13 games. The Mets' power is greatly reduced after they dealt away Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda. Phillies starter Nick Pivetta pitched the best game of his young career when he faced the Mets last month holding them to one hit in seven innings. Pivetta is a high strikeout pitcher, who is prone to the long ball. But Pivetta has pitched much better at home - holding foes to a .223 batting average at Citizens Band Park - and much of the Mets' power is gone now. The Phillies' bullpen has been much better lately. Mets starter Seth Lugo is a bit underrated due to all the other great young arms on the Mets. Lugo can take care of business against a Phillies offense that ranks 29th in runs and 28th in homers. Roberto Ortiz is slated to be making his eighth career appearance as a major league home plate umpire. The under has cashed in six of his previous seven times as the home plate ump. | |||||||
08-11-17 | Steelers v. Giants -3.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
Mike Tomlin is one of those coaches who doesn't care about preseason. That's evident in how he approaches these exhibition games - and in his record. The Steelers have lost and failed to cover in 13 of their 17 preseason games during the past four years. That includes going 0-4 SU and ATS in their preseason openers. They lost three preseason games by double-digits last season. I don't see anything being different here. Tomlin not only is holding out Ben Roethlisberger, but also second-string QB Landry Jones. Rookie Josh Dobbs is going to see the majority of snaps behind center for Pittsburgh. He'll be followed by Bart Houston. The Giants aren't going to play Eli Manning, but they have a much stronger quarterback rotation with Geno Smith and Josh Johnson. Not only are these two battling to win the backup job, but both are mobile quarterbacks. Having a mobile quarterback is huge in preseason where plays often break down. It's not just the Steelers' poor track record and quarterback disadvantage that makes the Giants an attractive favorite here. Pittsburgh has been hit hard by injuries during training camp with a dozen players hurting. The Steelers are extremely thin at cornerback. The Giants' short passing game can take advantage. The Giants have had a spirited training camp. They want to avoid a sluggish start they had last August. They will be the more motivated team. | |||||||
08-10-17 | Broncos v. Bears OVER 35.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
Both teams have good quarterback rotations for preseason with open competition for the starting spot. That should ensure enough scoring for the final score to go Over this low total. Trevor Siemian has looked good during training camp, feeling much more comfortable operating Denver's offense. He's likley to play 1 1/2 quarters against a weak Chicago secondary. Paxton Lynch then will take over. New Broncos coach Vance Joseph said he'll be using preseason as a way to judge his quarterback competition. Mike Glennon is expected to start for the Bears. He'll see at least a few series as the Bears want to get Glennon up to speed in their system. Glennon has appeared in only two NFL games since 2014. Following Glennon will be veteran Mark Sanchez and rookie Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears are extremely anixous to find out what Trubisky can do. Expect the Bears to be throwing a lot to Kevin White, who they want to get the rust off and find out just how good White is. | |||||||
08-10-17 | Edmonton v. Ottawa UNDER 56 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
Edmonton is unbeaten thanks in part to a defense that gives up the fewest yards in the CFL and the second-fewest points per game. So I trust the Eskimos defense to do their part. The problem for Edmonton is going to be on offense due to a long injury list that keeps growing. The Eskimos have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line and now will be without Brandon Zylstra, their most dynamite receiver. Zylstra leads Edmonton in receiving hauling in 39 of 47 targets. These two teams have a history of going under the total doing so in seven of their past 10 meetings. | |||||||
08-10-17 | Edmonton v. Ottawa +2.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 16 m | Show | |
The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks are 1-5-1. Are they that bad? No. They've been snakebit losing their five games by a combined 13 points. They've only been outscored by eight points on the season. Ottawa is 7-2 ATS during its last nine games, including 5-2 ATS this season. The Reblacks should have beaten Winnipeg last week. At least they get to stay home as this is their second consecutive home matchup. Reports from practice say the Redblacks remain upbeat. Edmonton is the lone remaining unbeaten team in the CFL at 6-0. Are the Eskimos this good? No. All but one of their victories have been by five points or fewer. They have a losing spread record. The Eskimos have a long injury list. Among those out are several starting offensive linemen, including center Justin Sorenson, two starting linebackers, their top receiver - Brandon Zylstra - and starting cornerback Gary Peters. This is good news for Ottawa quarterback Trevor Harris, who leads the CFL with 14 TD passes and is No. 2 in passing yards. The Redblacks have covered five of the last six in this series. | |||||||
08-10-17 | Indians v. Rays OVER 8 | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
The Indians are averaging a meager two runs per game during their last four games. The Rays have scored just four runs during their last five games. So why try to make an Over work here? Law of averages for one. Cleveland ranks eighth in the majors in runs and batting average. The Rays have smacked the ninth most homers in the majors. The other major factor is Blake Snell is going to pitch. The Rays realize Snell shouldn't be in the majors. That's why they sent him down to Triple-A Durham less than a week ago. But an injury to Alex Cobb has put Snell back for another big league start. Snell has a 5.02 ERA at Tropicana Field. He has yielded a home run in each of his last four starts. Tampa Bay has a bad bullpen and Snell doesn't go deep into games. The over has cashed in eight of his last 11 home starts. Jay Bruce can't wait to join the Indians with a chance to face Snell. Indians starter Danny Salazar has been stellar in three starts since coming off the DL. Salazar isn't this good. He's due to take a step back. | |||||||
08-09-17 | Twins +143 v. Brewers | 4-0 | Win | 143 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
The Brewers were huge overachievers during the first half of the season. They are tumbling back to Earth now, losers of 15 of their last 22. The Twins, meanwhile, are hanging in just 1 1/2 games out of a wild card spot. They have won three in a row and have back All-Star power hitter Miguel Sano. So why then are the Brewers such huge favorites here? Two words - Bartolo Colon. The 44-year-old Colon is more craft than substance. He has a 5.18 ERA in four starts with Minnesota. That's a lot better, though, than the 8.14 ERA he recorded in 13 starts with the Braves before coming to the Twins. Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff is at the opposite spectrum. He's just beginning his career. This will be his second big league start. He blanked Tampa Bay in 6 1/3 innings six days ago. I like Woodruff's potential. But he's going to go through growing pains. He was 6-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 15 Triple A starts before coming up. The combination of Woodruff's wonderful debut and Colon's presence has created a line that is too high. So I'll make a value play and go with the 'dog at a nice mid-sized price. | |||||||
08-09-17 | Astros v. White Sox OVER 10 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
Taking the Over with the Astros often is a solid play. It has won 71 percent of the time during Houston's past 32 games. I see it winning again today. The Astros have the No. 1 offense in baseball. They certainly should put up a lot of runs against Miguel Gonzalez, one of the worst pitchers in the league. Gonzalez just gave up seven runs in less than two innings during his past start six days ago. There's a good chance the Astros get back All-Star George Springer today, too. He's been out since July 25 due to a quad injury. Collin McHugh has looked outstanding in two starts back from an elbow injury that had kept him out the entire season. Returning from an elbow injury is tricky, though. McHugh is coming off a season-high 100 pitches. I wouldn't be surprised if some regression occurs for him during this start. The White Sox changed the name of their field to Guranteed Rate Field. But it still plays well to the hitters during the summer when the humidity really kicks in. The weather forecast calls for winds to be blowing out to left at around eight mph. | |||||||
08-07-17 | Cardinals -120 v. Royals | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Better starting pitcher. Better spot. A key injury. Those are the main factors why I like St. Louis to beat Kansas City today. The Royals will be without catcher Salvador Perez, who is on the DL after suffering a right intercostal strain this past Friday. The Royals had to play a doubleheader Sunday. Their bullpen is fatigued. The Cardinals have the stronger pitching matchup here with Carlos Martinez facing Ian Kennedy. Martinez has pitched better than his 7-9 record shows. He's a "B" pitcher in my ratings. Kennedy doesn't rate that high especially at Kauffman Stadium where he carries a 13-game home winless streak. That includes an 0-4 mark this year with a 4.98 ERA. Kennedy doesn't have a good track record versus the Cardinals either going 3-5 with a 7.20 ERA in eight previous starts. | |||||||
08-07-17 | Tigers +153 v. Pirates | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
I find value at this high of a price in fading Trevor Williams, a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. Detroit is 6-3 in its last nine games. Pittsburgh is 5-9 in its past 14 games. The Pirates have lost in seven of Williams' last nine starts. I've always liked Zimmermann, who can be extremely effective when healthy. Zimmermann is healthy again and pitching well with three quality starts in his last four outings. He held the Yankees scoreless in seven innings during his past start last Wednesday. Zimmeran gave up six hits, no walks and struck out six. "Other than the one start ... I've been pretty good," Zimmermann was quoted as saying about his past appearances. "I feel strong, and the ball is coming out of my hand much better than it did in the first half of the season." | |||||||
08-06-17 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
I'm certainly not going to stand in the way of a freight train known as the Los Angeles Dodgers, winners of 43 of their last 50 games. I do think the Mets, though, are going to be fired-up and sharp for this nationally televised game. They have been embarrassed by the Dodgers all season going 0-6 against them. So I don't care to lay a huge price with LA. I do believe strongly, however, that this will be a tight, lower-scoring game than the oddsmaker perceives. Dodgers starter Hyun-Jin Ryu is the healthiest he has been in two years and it's showing. He has a 2.38 ERA in his last four starts and is coming off seven scoreless innings against the Giants last Sunday. He is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA in four lifetime starts versus the Mets. The Dodgers have the second-best bullpen in the majors with a 2.95 ERA. Closer Kenley Jansen is rested. The Mets are averaging 2.3 runs in their last three games. New York has scored four or less runs in seven of their last 10 home games. Citi Field is more pitcher than hitter park. Often teams rest a key hitter or two on Sunday. Yoenis Cespedes is the Mets' top power hitter and he hasn't homered in 14 straight games at Citi Field. A key to having this game stay under is Mets starter Steven Matz and New York's defense, which has improved with slick fielding rookie Amed Rosario the everyday shortstop now. Matz is one of the more promising lefties in baseball. He often gets overshadowed because of the Mets' massive talent of young starting pitchers. Matz is 2-0 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 2.50 ERA in three starts. Matz held the Rockies to three runs in five innings during his last start, which was this past Tuesday. That game was at Coors Field. This one is at a much better pitching venue. | |||||||
08-05-17 | A's v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -119 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
These teams easily exceeded nine runs on Friday with the Angels winning, 8-6. I see more of the same today. Oakland is averaging 5.2 runs in its last seven games. The Angels are averaging 7.2 runs during their last seven games. The bullpens are bad and the starting pitching matchup is Paul Blackburn versus Tyler Skaggs. Blackburn gave up five runs on eight hits in 6 1/3 innings against the Giants during his last outing this past Monday. The Giants have scored the second-fewest runs in baseball and are last in homers. Now Blackburn is going to have to deal with a much better offensive team, a DH and a red-hot Mike Trout, who is 13-for-30 riding a seven-game hitting streak. Not much is being expected from Skaggs, who last started on April 29. He's been out with an oblique strain. He's 0-2 lifetime versus the A's with a 6.75 ERA in three starts. These two teams have gone Over 73 percent of the time during their past 26 games in Los Angeles. | |||||||
08-05-17 | Cardinals +110 v. Reds | 4-1 | Win | 110 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
Lance Lynn is very underrated. He ranks in the top six in the National League in both ERA and batting average against holding opponents to a .210 average. Lynn has a good history versus the Reds, too, with a 9-4 record and 3.15 ERA in 19 appearances, including 16 starts. Lynn had a 1.47 ERA in six July starts. He is more trustworthy than Reds rookie starter Luis Castillo. I like the potential of Castillo. But he's coming up on his career high in innings and has yet to win at home where he's 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA. Cincinnati has dropped nine of its last 12 home games. It's a big plus if the Cardinals get back catcher Yadier Molina as expected. He pinch-hit Friday after getting banged-up on Thursday. | |||||||
08-04-17 | A's v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
Put two hot offenses against two vulnerable starting pitchers and weak bullpens and reaching double-digits shouldn't be a problem. The A's are averaging 5.8 runs in their last five games. The Angels have been even better averaging 7.4 runs during their last five games. I had high hopes at the start of the season for A's starter Jharel Cotton. Those hopes certainly have been misplaced. Cotton has been injured and ineffective this year. He has a 5.49 ERA and didn't look good in his first start off the DL. He gave up five run on five hits - including two homers - and five walks in only 3 2/3 innings against the Twins this past Sunday. Cotton is 0-2 versus the Angels this season giving up 12 runs in 9 1/3 innings. Scribner has made just two big league appearances, both in relief. He had a 4.16 ERA in Triple A this season. Not much is expected from him here. The offenses will be helped, too, by a slight breeze blowing out. | |||||||
08-04-17 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa -2.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 16 m | Show |
Winnipeg is 3-2. Ottawa is 1-4-1. But the Redblacks are favored here. What does that tell you? It tells me the oddsmaker believes the Redblacks are going to win. And I fully agree. The defending Grey Cup champion Redblacks have played a very tough schedule. They are better than their record having gone 5-1 ATS. Their average losing margin is 2.5 points a game. Their record could be just the opposite with a few breaks. This time Ottawa is in a good spot. The Redblacks had a much needed bye last week while Winnipeg is coming off a victory for the ages nipping Montreal, 41-40, last Thursday. The Blue Bombers scored two touchdowns in the final 48 seconds to pull out the victory scoring on the final play after recovering an on-side kick. I respect Winnipeg's offense, but the Blue Bombers have a porous defense. Giving up 40 points to the Alouttes is downright scary. The Blue Bombers are surrendering an average of 35.8 points per game during their last five games and must deal with the league's top quarterback-to-receiver tandem in Trevor Harris and Greg Ellingson. The Redblacks have won four of the last five meetings against the Blue Bombers, too. | |||||||
08-03-17 | A's v. Giants -123 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a lost season for the Giants. But I do believe the Giants will be fired up here to earn a split of their four-game series against cross-town rival Oakland. I do not like to lay a price with San Francisco, but my urge to fade to Kendall Graveman and the A's on the road outweighs that concern. Oakland has the second-worst road mark in the majors at 17-35. Graveman hasn't pitched in the majors since May 19 because of a strained shoulder. His minor league rehab numbers weren't encouraging at 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and opponents batting .383 against him. The Giants have seen Graveman twice, the last time coming on June 28 of last season. Graveman has an 11.37 ERA versus San Francisco. The A's have never faced Ty Blach, who pitched very well in his last outing giving up two runs in seven innings against the Dodgers on the road this past Saturday. | |||||||
08-03-17 | Phillies +148 v. Angels | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Jerad Eickhoff is way below the radar. He started the season by losing his first seven decisions. Then he went on the DL with a back injury. But in his last five starts, he's 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA. This is the Phillies' third game on the West Coast so they should be adjusted to the time change by now. The Phillies had won five in a row before venturing on their current trip. Philadelphia also is facing Parker Bridwell, who is due for serious regression. Bridwell is 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA in nine appearances, including eight starts. I don't think he's nearly as good as those numbers. | |||||||
08-03-17 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
I'm not a fan of either starting pitcher, Sal Romano or Chad Kuhl. Romano will be making his fifth big league start. He's given up 13 walks in those starts spanning 18 1/3 innings. He's still experimenting with his pitches. The Reds are going to be patient with him. So he's living and learning. Kuhl has a 4.84 ERA and also has been dealing with control issues. He walked five batters in 5 1/3 innings during his last start against the weak-hitting Padres in San Diego this past Friday. The Reds rank 12th in the majors in homers. They've already smacked five homers in the first two games of this series. Both teams are thin and weak in middle relief. | |||||||
08-02-17 | Nationals -112 v. Marlins | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Vance Worley has a reserved spot on my list of "F" starting pitchers. Not only do I want to fade Worley, but I want to back the Nationals after they blew a 6-0 lead to the Marlins Tuesday. I can do it at a cheap lay price, too. It just takes a little faith in Nationals pitcher A.J. Cole and a strong belief Washington is going to hammer Worley and a battered Marlins bullpen that has lost their top relievers through trade and injuries. The Nationals are the best offensive team in the National League. They are 7-2 the past nine times against a righty starter. Cole looked sharp in his lone big league start this year holding the Phillies to one run on six hits in six innings back on May 6. The Nationals haven't needed him since with their pitching depth. | |||||||
08-02-17 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 9.5 | 0-7 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
The Nationals rank second only to the Astros in the major offensive categories. The Marlins are averaging 7.8 runs during their last six games if you discount a 1-0 loss to southpaw Gio Gonzalez two days ago. I have to believe these teams can combine for double-digit runs in a pitching matchup of A.J. Cole versus Vance Worley. Cole hasn't started in the big leagues since May. He had a 5.66 ERA in the minors at Triple-A Syracuse. The Marlins saw Cole last September and scored six runs on 10 hits off him in seven innings. Like a bad penny that gets passed around, journeyman Worley has resurfaced in the majors. He holds a 6.42 ERA and is backed by a shaky Marlins bullpen that has been gutted by injuries and a trade of closer A.J. Ramos. The Nationals have fortified their bullpen, but it carries a high fatigue rating as Washington relievers went seven innings yesterday. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,160 |
Dan Kaiser | $1,039 |
Tom Macrina | $650 |
Ray Monohan | $618 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Jesse Schule | $418 |
Big Al McMordie | $350 |
Marc Lawrence | $300 |
Mike Lundin | $293 |
Joseph D'Amico | $268 |