Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-23-17 | Senators +150 v. Bruins | 3-2 | Win | 150 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a nice price to take on an underdog that is as good, if not better, than the home team. Given all the Bruins' defensive injuries, I would say the Senators are the superior team. The Bruins also could be without center David Krejci, who suffered a lower body injury in Game 5. Boston was fortunate to stave off elimination in Game 5 winning in double overtime. That cut Ottawa's lead to 3-2 in the series. The Bruins have never come from 3-1 down to win a series during their long history. Despite the Game 5 loss, the Senators have had the Bruins' number winning nine of the past 11 times. This includes five consecutive victories in Boston. | |||||||
04-23-17 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 11.5 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
The battered Giants aren't hitting well enough to justify this high of a total even at Coors Field. San Francisco is barely averaging two runs a game during its last six games scoring 13 times during this span. The Giants have a cluster injury problem in their outfield with Denard Span, Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson out. Hunter Pencer didn't start yesterday because of a sore knee. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija has been terrible in his first three starts this season. The right-handed Samardzija, though, is better than he has shown and does have a good history versus the Rockies with a 2.55 ERA in 12 appearances, including eight starts. The under has cashed 11 of the last 14 times the Rockies have faced a righty starter at home. Intriguing southpaw Kyle Freeland gets the call for Colorado. The under has cashed nine of the last 12 times the Giants have gone against a lefty on the road. There's only a slight wind and that will be blowing in. Both teams have solid closers, too. | |||||||
04-23-17 | Tigers -101 v. Twins | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
The Twins shouldn't be favored in a pitching matchup of Michael Fulmer versus Kyle Gibson even at home and with the Tigers minus Miguel Cabrera. I lost hope on Gibson two years ago. His command has gotten worse since then and he's having another bad season this year with a 6.91 ERA. This is after compiling a 5.07 ERA last season. Fulmer, on the other hand, is following up on his excellent 2016 season. The right-hander has a 3.00 ERA in three starts. The Twins have lost 41 of the past 58 times versus a right- handed starter. The Tigers are 20-7 in Fulmer's last 27 starts for a winning percentage of 74 percent. | |||||||
04-22-17 | Oilers +130 v. Sharks | 3-1 | Win | 130 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
San Jose is the oldest team in the NHL and it showed during its overtime loss to the Oilers two days ago. The Oilers' key players are all much younger than San Jose's and so have the fresher legs. The Sharks played into mid-June last spring. San Jose's best players also competed in the World Cup of Hockey. Only one other team logged more travel miles than the Sharks during the season. Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau and Paul Martin are all at least 36 years old. Joe Pavelski and Ben Burns are 32. The Sharks have a lot of wear and tear. It's going to be tough for the Sharks to regain their momentum and energy after such a mentally-draining overtime loss. It would be one thing if I regarded San Jose as the superior team. But I don't. Edmonton is the better team. The Oilers have won 15 of their last 19 games. They have defeated the Sharks six of the past eight times, too. This is Edmonton's time. The Sharks had their shot last season. Now their window has closed. | |||||||
04-22-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +113 | 5-11 | Win | 113 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Arizona is 7-1 at home while the Dodgers are 2-5 on the road. The Diamondbacks have southpaw Robbie Ray going. The Dodgers struggle versus lefties especially on the road where they have lost 18 of the past 23 times versus them. The 25-year-old Ray is coming into his own. He has 24 strikeouts in 18 1/3 innings. Opponents are batting .161 against him, which is the second-lowest in the NL. Ray has a 2.80 lifetime ERA in nine starts against the Dodgers. Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda is off to a slow start with a 7.07 ERA. He hasn't been able to get to the sixth inning during any of his three starts. He's facing a better offense, too, than the Dodgers have. | |||||||
04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
If Golden State isn't the best team in the NBA than San Antonio is. The Spurs showed their dominance during the first two games of the series winning at home by 29 and 14 points, respectively. On Thursday, the teams played Game 3. Everything set up for the Grizzlies in that matchup. The Grizzlies were playing at home for the first time, David Fizdale had set up the officials by bitterly complaining after Game 2 and the Grizzlies' Big Three of Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Zach Randolph all stepped up. The Grizzlies also got "A" type performances from their young role players. Game 3 was Memphis' time to win and the Grizzlies did just that, 105-94. Gregg Popovich, who I have long regarded as the best coach in basketball, may have hoisted the white flag in that game in order to set up a victory in this Game 4. A disgusted Popovich pulled all five of his starters less than a minute into the second half with his team trailing by nine points. All of this leads me to strongly believe the prideful and superior Spurs are going to step up here. If they do, the Spurs will win handily even if the Grizzlies can somehow conjure up a second straight "A" game performance, which I don't see happening. Memphis is 1-5 ATS following a victory, didn't play well down the stretch losing four of their last five regular-season games and has lost 10 of their last 11 playoff games to the Spurs. | |||||||
04-21-17 | Marlins -112 v. Padres | 3-5 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
The Marlins are a better team than the Padres and I like promising Adam Conley more than journeyman Trevor Cahill when it comes to starting pitchers. The Marlins have won in four of Conley's last five road starts. Miami also has the superior bullpen and defense. Cahill was pitching in relief last season. I'm not sold on him reverting back to being a starter. He's always vulnerable to giving up a big inning. He has a 4.66 career ERA versus the Marlins. The Marlins have been on the West Coast for three days now so they are acclimitated to the time change. San Diego rarely follows up a victory with another win. The Padres are 9-25 after winning in their previous game. | |||||||
04-21-17 | Clippers -110 v. Jazz | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
My handicap here can be summed up this way: The Clippers are the superior team and the Jazz won't have star center Rudy Gobert. The Jazz managed to ambush the Clippers in Game 1 with Gobert missing nearly the entire game. But the Clippers regrouped and took advantage of Gobert's absence to win Game 2 by eight points. Both DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin had big games with the Jazz minus Gobert. Griffin scored 24 points while Jordan made 9 of 11 shots from the field and pulled down 15 rebounds. The Clippers outscored the Jazz by 22 points in the paint and outrebounded them by eight. Chris Paul has been dominant at point guard. If the Clippers get anything from streak shooters J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford - who are a combined 12 for 37 in the series from the floor - they could win handily. | |||||||
04-21-17 | Bruins v. Senators -102 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -102 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The games certainly have been close, bu the Senators have had the Bruins' number all season. Ottawa is 7-1 versus Boston this season. The Senators have won three in a row against Boston after dropping the first one in this series and I see them closing out Boston at home today. The Bruins have lost six of their last seven at Ottawa and their blue line is decimated with injuries. Rookie Charlie McAvoy, who hadn't played in the NHL during the regular season, led all Boston players with 25:03 minutes of ice team in the last game. The Bruins have been missing defensemen Torey Krug, Adam McQuaid and Brandon Carlo. None are expected to play today. Ottawa has had good rhythm when playing on one day's rest winning 20 of the past 28 times in that situation. The Bruins were shut out on Wednesday. David Pastrnak, who scored 34 goals during the regular season, has been a bust with just one goal and that came on a 5-on-3 advantage. He's had only two shots on net. Boston's confidence can't be good down 3-1 in the series knowing its never won a series before when down by that margin. | |||||||
04-20-17 | Sharks v. Oilers -128 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
I was convinced the Oilers were the better team entering this series and I still believe that. But the Oilers need to play smarter. Certainly they will play with more passion returning home after an embarrassing 7-0 road loss to San Jose. The Oilers shouldn't be nervous like they were at home in Game 1. They also should play with more discipline being short-handed more than any team in the playoffs so far. There are a lot of other due factors here that should add up such as the Oilers winning more faceoffs. San Jose is not a good faceoff team. Connor McDavid hasn't scored a point in two straight games. The last time that happened was Jan. 31 and Feb. 2. The Oilers have too much offense from other players if the Sharks continue to key and go after McDavid. Perhaps it's a leap of faith to envision all this happening. But it should be noted the Sharks have lost seven of their last nine road games, while the Oilers have won 10 of their past 11 home games. | |||||||
04-20-17 | Cardinals -111 v. Brewers | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
This is a cheap price to get a pitcher I consider elite in Carlos Martinez. Martinez has been wilder this season and getting less ground ball outs than usual, but he's among the National League leaders in strikeouts. The Brewers are a good matchup for him because they are a free-swinging tean that strikes out a lot. The Cardinals have won 19 of Martinez's last 27 road starts. I also like St. Louis' bullpen better than the Brewers' pen especially the closer. Milwaukee starter Zach Davies figured to regress this season and that's been the case. Davies isn't a hard thrower so he needs good control. Yet already he has walked eight in 14 1/3 innings after only giving up 38 bases on balls in 163 1/3 innings last season. His ERA is a fat 8.79. | |||||||
04-20-17 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 196.5 | Top | 77-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
There were only 180 points scored in Game 1 of this series won by the Bucks, 97-83. But there were 206 points scored in Game 2, won by the Raptors, 106-100. So, what to make of this matchup with the teams going to Milwaukee now for Game 3? I see the final score looking far more like Game 1 so I'm on the Under. The Bucks have averaged just 91.7 points during their last seven games. That would rank last a good six points away from the next lowest-scoring team if computed during the entire season. The Raptors are givng up just 90.7 points during their last seven road games. The under has cashed in 16 of Toronto's past 21 road games. The Raptors are an underrated defensive team after trading for Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker. A key is the Raptors found a way to slow down superstar Giannis Anteokounmpo. They held him to 9-of-24 shooting from the floor in Game 2. Toronto and Milwaukee combined to make 25 of 52 3-point shots in Game 2 for an amazing 48 percent from beyond the arc. Toronto made 36.3 percent of its 3-pointers during the regular season while the Bucks converted 37 percent of their 3-point shots. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Bucks have a bad offensive game due to nerves and the pressure of playing their first playoff game at home. Bucks coach Jason Kidd has been stressing defense. If you discount a meaningless regular season road finale against the Celtics in which their best players sat out, the Bucks are surrendering only 87.5 points in their last four games. The under is 16-4-1 the past 21 times an oponent has scored triple digits on the Bucks in the previous game. Kidd is showing his commitment to defense by giving more minutes to Matthew Dellavedova and Thon Maker at the expense of Tony Snell and Greg Monroe. Dellavedova has the worst shooting percentage of any of the regular rotation players for Milwaukee during the playoffs while Maker is strictly a defensive type player with limited offensive skills. The two teams have a strong under bias, too, having gone below the total in nine of their last 12 meetings. | |||||||
04-20-17 | Cavs v. Pacers +2.5 | 119-114 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers head into Indiana up 2-0 in the series. Cleveland won its two home games by an average of 3.5 points. The Pacers are a far better team at Bankers Life Fieldhouse going 29-13. The Cavaliers have a losing road record. They have a bad history at Indiana, too, going 1-6-1 ATS during their last eight visits. From a pointspread perspective, the Pacers have dominated this series going 10--2-1 ATS. Fiery Paul George can match LeBron James with his will to win. George is averaging 30.5 points, seven assists and five 3-points in the series. Myles Turner is due to play much better, which should happen at home. The Pacers have been excellent when having two days between games covering 21 of the last 27 times in that situation. This really is the Pacers' season. The Cavaliers can't be trusted in this spot with their lack of defense and poor road record. | |||||||
04-19-17 | Wild v. Blues OVER 5 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Wild at Blues Over 5 plus $1.05 Jake Allen has been on fire and the Blues have won the first three games of this series. All three games have gone under with no more than four goals scored in any of the games. So why go Over 5 now? Because the Wild are going to let everything hang out here in order to avoid the sweep. They have no choice. It's not like Minnesota can't score goals. The Wild were the No. 2 scoring team in the league during the regular season. The Blues are going to match the Wild's aggressiveness and attack-mode being home and with a chance to end the series. If the Wild happen to be down a goal or two late in the third period, there's no doubt they will pull their goalie earlier than usual. | |||||||
04-19-17 | Thunder +8 v. Rockets | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
It's rare to see the Thunder getting this many points. But that's what happens after the Rockets destroyed the Thunder, 118-87, in Sunday's Game 1. I don't see a repeat. James Harden is a strong MVP candidate and Houston has the No. 2 ranked offense. But their defense isn't nearly as good as it looked in Game 1. Not only did Russell Westbrook have a rare off-game, missing 17 of 23 shots from the floor while committing nine turnovers, but shooting guard Victor Oladipo made only one of 12 shots from the floor. Oklahoma City's front line also played poorly losing the rebound battle by 15 boards. I see the prideful Westbrook and Oklahoma City bouncing back. The Thunder's underrated frontcourt shouldn't get outrebounded by the Rockets and Westbrook is due some calls in his personal battle with Harden, who schooled him in the opener of the series. Oklahoma City improved its road play down the stretch winning seven of its last nine regular season away contests while going 6-3 ATS. The Thunder also have covered five of the last six times when playing on two days rest. Until shellacking the Thunder, the Rockets had failed to cover in their last nine games. | |||||||
04-19-17 | Orioles -103 v. Reds | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
There's a class difference between these two teams. Yet the game is priced competitively because Ubaldo Jimenez is pitching for Baltimore, the Reds are home and starting Amir Garrett, who has looked good in the early going. The 33-year-old Jimenez can give the Reds problems, though, with his assortment of pitches and veteran savvy especially since many of the young Cincinnati hitters don't have experience with him. Jimenez had success against the Reds when he was in the National League going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in six career starts. It's easy to rip Jimenez, but Baltimore is 7-1 in his last eight starts. As far as the Reds being home, I love it that the Orioles get to hit in Great American Ball Park. The Orioles are an elite power-hitting team and Great American Ball Park is an elite hitter's park especially for home run hitters. The Reds have lost 35 of their last 51 interleague games versus a right-handed starter and are 5-11 during their past 16 home interleague games. Garrett, a 24-year-old rookie, has been a pleasant surprise during his first two big league starts. Those outings though were against the Cardinals, who have yet to start hitting, and the Pirates, who rank 26th in runs scored. The Orioles now have a couple games of film on Garrett and are a step up for him. Wednesday Free Play Giants at Royals Under 8 If the oddsmaker tricked me by making this total 8 instead of 7 1/2 than I congratulate him because he got my money. Because I certainly can't see more than seven runs being scored here even though there will be about a 10-15 mph wind blowing out to left. The Royals achieved the near impossible on Tuesday: They made washed-up Matt Cain look good. The Giants won that game with Cain, 2-1, in 11 innings. Now the Royals draw Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner could be the second-best lefty in baseball behind only Clayton Kershaw depending on how you feel about Chris Sale. Bumgarner has 24 strikeouts in 21 innings this season. Opponents are batting .222 against him. Kansas City is last in the majors in runs scored and third-from-the-bottom in batting average. The Royals haven't scored more than three runs in six of their last seven games. The Giants have managed just five runs in their last three games. They've been held to three runs or less in five of their past seven games. Royals starter Jason Vargas hadn't been healthy in two years. Now he's finally 100 percent again and has looked sharp in two starts giving up just one run in 13 2/3 innings with 14 strikeouts. He's backed by one of the best defensive teams in baseball. Perhaps it's somewhat of a coincidence, but the under has cashed in Vargas' last nine starts. The under has also cashed in eight of the last nine games John Tumpane has been behind the plate. He's slated to be the home plate umpire today. | |||||||
04-18-17 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 195.5 | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
This total is lower than the closing 198 from Game 1. There were 192 points in that opening matchup won by the Jazz, 97-95. I understand why the oddsmaker adjusted this Game 2 total lower than in Game 1. Early activity in the marketplace has been to the under making the total even lower. Both the oddsmaker and marketplace are over compensating. They are each overreacting to Game 1. The Clippers haven't had a total this low since Christmas Day when they played Dallas, the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. Prior to Saturday's opener, the Jazz had scored 103 or more points in seven of their last nine games. The Clippers had scored at least 112 points in six of their previous seven games. The Jazz are expecting the Clippers to play very aggressive this game. I agree. That starts with Chris Paul, who very much remains an elite point guard. On paper, Paul had a good Game 1 with 25 points and 11 assists. But he still could have been more aggressive. The Clippers' point total was really hurt by J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford missing 12 of 19 shots from the floor and six of seven shots from 3-point range. They are much better scorers than that. Utah finished as the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. A big reason for that was center Rudy Gobert. He's a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year honors after leading the league in blocked shots and finishing fourth in rebounding. Gobert, though, is out with a hyperextended knee. Gobert's absence is going to open the middle for Paul to penetrate. The Clippers are going to get their points here playing at home down 0-1 in the series. The question is can Utah put up its share of points to get this total over? I believe they will. Point guard George Hill is finally healthy. He shot well in Game 1 making 7 of 13 shots from the floor. The Jazz's second best point guard is Raul Neto. He's been out for more than a week due to a sprained ankle. But he said he's ready to play today. The Jazz have to play more small ball minus Gobert. That means a quicker pace and more minutes for Derrick Favors, who made 7 of 10 shots from the field in Game 1, and veteran Joe Johnson. Johnson still can score as evidenced by his 9 of 14 shooting from the floor in Game 1, but his defense has slipped. So he's good for the over. | |||||||
04-18-17 | Diamondbacks -116 v. Padres | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
The price is low enough to back the superior team with the superior starter going. | |||||||
04-18-17 | Rangers -126 v. A's | 2-4 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
I've seen enough of Yu Darvish to believe he's back to being an elite pitcher. The Rangers' bullpen will be much better now that Matt Bush has been inserted into the closer role with Sam Dyson going on the DL. Bush is the Rangers' best reliever in my view. The A's have lost four in a row. They just lost power-hitting shorstop Marcus Semien for a couple of months. Oakland is hoping Andrew Triggs can end their losing streak. Triggs hasn't allowed an earned run in 11 2/3 innings this season spanning two outings. Triggs is a back end of the rotation type starter - if that - and is due for regression. He's faced 47 batters and has recorded just four strikeouts. The Rangers saw him twice last season when he was a rookie so they'll know what to expect. | |||||||
04-18-17 | Penguins v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
The Penguins have scored three or more goals in all but one of their last nine games. This includes the first three games of this series. The Penguins are averaging four goals per game in the series and have talked about coming out even more aggressively in order to sweep the Blue Jackets. | |||||||
04-18-17 | Canadiens v. Rangers +100 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
If it weren't for a goal by Tomas Plekanec with 17 seconds left in Game 2, the Canadiens might be looking at playoff elimination.here. Instead, Montreal is up 2-1 in the series having won two in a row. I understand the Rangers have trouble winning playoff games at home. But this is a fair price to back the home Rangers, whose main core of players are due to perform better. The Rangers and Canadiens play similar styles relying on speed, defense and the transition game. The Canadiens' edge is goalie Carey Price. However, Henrik Lundqvist is playing at just as high level as Price. It's not his fault the Rangers are down 2-1 in the series. It's step up time for Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller, Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Hayes and Mike Zuccarello. I see them getting the job down at home in this pivotal matchup. | |||||||
04-17-17 | Marlins v. Mariners -127 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
Bad spot, below average starting pitcher and terrible track record make the Marlins a strong fade today. Miami is fat and happy after beating the Mets for a third consecutive time on Sunday following a walk-off home run by rookie J.T. Riddle, his first in the majors. That concluded a 4-2 homestand for Miami. Now, though, the Marlins travel cross-country across three time zones to play the Mariners in Seattle. The last time the Marlins played at Safeco Field was 2011. The Marlins have lost 20 of their last 27 interleague road games. This is their longest trip. The Mariners will be playing their seventh consecutive home game. They are 4-2 in their last six games, including three victories in a row. So they are playing well, too. The pitching matchup is Tom Koehler versus lefty Ariel Miranda. Koehler is an inning-eating, fifth-starter type, who is average at best when pitching at Marlins Park and below adequate when pitching on the road. The 30-year-old Koehler is 16-25 with a 4.49 ERA career road mark. Koehler's has a 4.50 ERA in 18 all-time interleague starts. The Marlins have lost in nine of Koehler's last 10 starts. The Marlins have never faced Miranda. Miami has lost eight of the past nine times when facing a southpaw in an interleague road game. Miranda's two starts this season have come against the Astros, one was decent the other bad. Now he steps down in class facing the Marlins, who have never seen Miranda. Miranda has a lifetime winning record with the Mariners, who have won four of his last five home starts. | |||||||
04-17-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
The Dodgers' bullpen carries a high fatigue rating after Rich Hill had to leave yesterday because of a blister after having pitched just three innings. The Diamondbacks have one of the better offenses ranking fifth in runs scored. Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is due for some regression after two strong games. A key for McCarthy is getting ahead on the count. The Diamondbacks are an aggressive bunch who will go after the first strike. The Dodgers should do their share of damage against Robbie Ray even though they struggle versus lefties. Ray is a top strikeout pitcher, but he walks too many batters and gives up too many homers. | |||||||
04-17-17 | Ducks v. Flames OVER 5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
The teams have played twice now in the series and the Ducks have won each game, 3-2. Once again the total is 5. I say this time - with 0-2 Calgary now at home - there will be more than five goals scored. The Ducks' defensive depth is down with two regulars hurt. The Ducks have been propped up by brilliant goaltending from John Gibson and his .942 save percentage. I say he can't keep this up. I understand goalies can get hot during the Stanley Cup, but Gibson is not an elite goalie. Look for the Flames to play really agressive down 0-2 in the series. I see a wide open game. Only once has the under cashed during the Flames' past 11 home games. The over is 8-2, too, the past 10 times these two teams have played in Calgary. | |||||||
04-16-17 | Oilers +116 v. Sharks | 1-0 | Win | 116 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
While I respect San Jose, I consider Edmonton to be the superior team. The Oilers have led by two goals twice in the series, but only are 1-1 to show for it. | |||||||
04-16-17 | Rockies v. Giants -126 | 4-3 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
The Giants are dealing with injuries, but I like them to solve Rockies rookie Antonio Senzatela at home. Senzatela is making his third start of the season - and been surprisingly effective. But the Giants have two games of film on him now. Senzatela wasn't impressive during spring training going 0-4 with a 4.61 ERA. The Rockies are not a good road team and have lost 14 of the past 19 times following a victory going back to last season. Giants starter Jeff Samardzija is a solid veteran with a 2.25 lifetime ERA versus the Rockies in 11 appearances, including seven starts. | |||||||
04-16-17 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 219.5 | 109-121 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
I understand there is usually a feeling out process during the first game of a playoff series. But I still see this total as being short. Portland has adjusted to being without big man Jusuf Nurkic by going short playing without a center. Nurkic's status is questionable versus the Warriors. But I like the total to go over regardless if he plays or not because the Trail Blazers still are going to play small ball. Golden State, of course, is the ultimate small ball team so there's going to be an up-and-down pace. The Trail Blazers were the eighth-highest scoring team in the NBA averaging nearly 108 points a game. They also were well below average defensively ranking 25th in scoring defense and 27th in defending 3-pointers. Golden State led the NBA in scoring and shooting percentage while also ranking third in 3-point shooting. If you discount a 99-point performance against Utah, the top defensive team in the league, the Warriors averaged 117 points in their last eight games. The Warriors enter this matchup with their top nine players healthy, a rarity for them. Kevin Durant has been back for three games now. The rust is off. Durant served notice he's back to his dominant scoring way by going for 29 points in 27 minutes during the Warriors' final regular season game. When they've had Durant, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala on the court at the same time, the Warriors have outscored foes by an average of 23.9 points per 100 possessions. This is a lineup the Trail Blazers can't slow down. The two teams also have a strong over bias when playing each other with the over cashing 18 of the past 24 times. | |||||||
04-16-17 | Angels v. Royals +100 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
The combination of the Angels not hitting while pitching Tyler Skaggs, puts me on the Royals. The Angels have lost four in row, averaging 2.2 runs during this span. Skaggs isn't going to be in the majors too much longer if he keeps pitching so bad. He's 0-1 with an 8.71 ERA, while giving up 13 hits - including three homers - five walks and a hit batter in just 10 1/3 innings. The Royals are playing better now and Ian Kennedy is an upgrade on Skaggs. | |||||||
04-15-17 | Predators v. Blackhawks -175 | 5-0 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a higher price than I normally would lay, but I want the Blackhawks going for me here. The Blackhawks have won three Stanley Cups under Joel Quenneville. But getting off to a slow start has been a Blackhawks trademark under Quenneville as Chicago is 3-6 in Stanley Cup openers. Despite that Game 1 home loss, the Blackhawks still have defeated Nashville in nine of the last 11 games at home. Chicago also has won 72 percent of its last 57 home contests versus opponents who sport a losing road record. | |||||||
04-15-17 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
The Capitals received their wake-up call in Game 1 falling behind by two goals before pulling out an overtime victory. The Capitals have beaten Toronto eight straight times at home. The Capitals not only are the vastly superior team, but have the necessary playoff experience the young Maple Leafs lack. Washington hasn't allowed more than two goals during its last six games. The Capitals' third-ranked offense certainly can take advantage of Toronto's 22nd-ranked defense to win by more than one goal especially with trailing teams prone to pull their goalie earlier than usual during Stanley Cup play. | |||||||
04-15-17 | Padres v. Braves +100 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Despite getting to play three games at Coors Field, the Padres are averaging just 3.4 runs this season. I see their young lineup having problems facing knucleballer R.A. Dickey. Wil Myers and Erick Aybar are the only Padres players experienced facing Dickey and his knuckleball. They are a combined six-for36 against him. The Braves are basking in their new park. The Padres not only have to make the difficult adjustment to face a knuckleballer - a pitcher many of their players have yet to face - but also going from Coors to the humid conditions of Atlanta. Padres starter Clayton Richard has a 6.91 lifetime ERA versus Atlanta. The Padres have lost the past five times, too, facing the Braves. | |||||||
04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7 | Top | 97-83 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
Forget Cleveland and Boston. The best team in the Eastern Conference right now very well could be Toronto. The Bucks have been playing well, but their playoff inexperience can really hurt them in this opening game especially playing in Toronto. The Raptors have dominated the Bucks beating them seven of the last eight times with the lone loss coming when the Raptors were missing Kyle Lowery. The Raptors won 10 playoff games last season. They are better this season with Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker added to the mix upgrading their defense. Lowery and DeRozan also enter the playoffs far less fatigued than last season due to missing time with injuries. Lowery missed 21 games during the second half of the season because of a wrist injury. Toronto finished the post All-Star break ranked in the top-five in defense and rebounding. No other team can make that distinction. By contrast, Milwaukee ranked 19th defensively and 24th in rebounding. The last time the Bucks won a playoff series was 2000-2001. The Raptors are 25-4 the past 29 times holding an opponent under 100 points. The Bucks finished the regular-season averaging just 88.2 points during their past five games. | |||||||
04-14-17 | Sharks v. Oilers OVER 5 | 0-2 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
The Sharks showed in Game 1 they aren't going to just let the upstart Oilers kick them to the curb. San Jose fired 39 shots from the second period on and defeated the Oilers, 3-2, in overtime with the total pushing. Only once in the last seven meetings between these two teams has the total gone under. All together, Edmonton goalie Cam Talbot faced 44 shots. The Oilers learned a big lesson in that Game 1 home loss while making their first Stanley Cup appearance in 11 years. Connor McDavid could manage just a single point in Game 1. I expect he and his linemates to do much better in Friday's Game 2. The Oilers only managed 17 shots at Sharks goalie Martin Jones. That's going to change. The Oilers were the eighth-highest scoring team in the league. They've scored three or more goals in nine of their last 11 games. The Sharks, though, are capable of scoring multiple goals, too, especially with Logan Couture returning to the ice after being out since March 25. His effectiveness should only increase as he gets less rusty. It's a plus, too, if Joe Thornton can play after missing Game 1 with a knee injury. Thomas Hertl did an outstanding job at center taking Thornton's place. It just adds to San Jose's scoring depth if Thornton returns. | |||||||
04-14-17 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks and Zach Greinke are playing much better than they did last season. Arizona is 7-3 with a new found sense of confidence and optimism. Greinke is past his shoulder issues that plagued him last season. He's 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in his two starts this season. Compare this to Clayton Kershaw, who is 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA after giving up four runs on eight hits in six innings against the Rockies during his last start. That outing was at Coors Field. Kershaw figures to be much better at pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Against Arizona, though, Kershaw has been good but not dominant sporting a lifetime mark of 12-8 with a 2.75 ERA. The total is less than seven here so few runs are expected. Asking the Dodgers to win by more than a run is asking a lot especially when LA gets one fewer at bat being the home team. The Dodgers just flew in from Chicago where they lost, 4-0, to the Cubs on Thursday. This is their first home game in more than a week. The loss to the Cubs completed a six-game road trip. Discount a 10-run performance against the Rockies at Coors and the Dodgers have scored seven runs in their last five games. While the Dodgers were changing two time zones, the Diamondbacks have been resting. They were idle Thursday. The Diamondbacks rank No. 2 in runs scored and batting average. Just two years ago, Greinke finished second in the National League Cy Young voting while pitching for the Dodgers. Greinke certainly won't lack motivation going against his former team and Kershaw. Arizona has won 10 of Greinke's last 13 road starts. The Diamondbacks are the better offensive team, have their own stud pitcher going and are in a good spot taking on an opponent that just concluded a long road trip. Kershaw is again way overpriced. Taking 1 1/2 runs with the visiting Diamondbacks is good insurance. | |||||||
04-14-17 | Angels v. Royals -124 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm not sure what the marketplace is thinking, but the number has come down far enough where I can now get involved with the Royals. Kansas City showed signs of getting straighten out on Thursday ending a long losing streak to the A's. | |||||||
04-14-17 | Mets v. Marlins OVER 7 | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
The offenses of these two teams have been on fire and the bullpens carry high fatigue ratings after Thursday's 9-8 16-inning Mets victory. Miami relievers threw 13 innings while New York's bullpen accounting for 11 1/3 innings in that game. The Mets lead the majors in homers and are fourth in runs scored. They are averaging 7.4 runs during their last five games. The Marlins are fifth in the league in runs scored while averaging 6.1 runs during their last six games. Yoenis Cespedes has smacked five homers in the last three games. Marcell Ozuna has driven home 10 runs in his last three games. These are two of the hottest-hitting power-hitters in baseball. The total is so low because Noah Syndergaard is starting for the Mets. However, Edinson Volquez is getting the start for Miami. He's several rungs below Syndergaard. The fences also have been moved in at Marlins Park. It's still a pitcher's park, but not quite as much as before. | |||||||
04-13-17 | A's v. Royals -127 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
I understand it's risky to lay a price with a team that so far hasn't been playing well, which is the case here with the 2-6 Royals. But I don't see the A's sweeping the Royals in Kansas City especially with today's starting pitching matchup, which pits Jesse Hahn versus southpaw Jason Vargas. Hahn is a long innings reliever, No. 5 type starter, who couldn't crack Oakland's starting rotation out of spring training. But he'll get the start here - his first of the season - replacing Raul Alcantara. The A's likely made a mistake in giving Alcantara a starting rotation spot. But Hahn isn't much, if any, of an upgrade. The A's gave Hahn nine starts last season - and he posted a 6.02 ERA. The Royals' problem is putting up just eight runs when having had 52 base runners in scoring position. That's the worst mark in the majors and had largely contributed to Kansas City going 19 scoreless innings. But the Royals showed signs of breaking out of their slump scoring a combined three runs during the eighth and ninth innings last night. Vargas underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015. It often can take two years for a pitcher to fully recover from that serious elbow surgery. I liked what I saw from Vargas in his opening start this season. He beat the Astros, 5-1, at Houston last Friday displaying excellent command and good velocity on his fastball. Vargas gave up one run in six innings allowing six hits with six strikeouts and one walk. The A's have owned the Royals lately winning eight in a row against them. However, the Royals are 7-0 during Vargas' past seven starts at Kauffman Stadium. Vargas has thrown two shutouts against Oakland and owns a lifetime 3.22 ERA versus the A's. Oakland also has been terrible when facing lefties losing 22 of the past 30 times. | |||||||
04-13-17 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 52 m | Show |
Expectations are high again for the Capitals entering the Stanley Cup, something they have failed to capture during this past decade despite winning seven division titles. I see the Capitals, 11-2-1 in their last 14 games, opening their first-round series with a victory against the Maple Leafs. So does the oddsmaker, who has made Washington better than a 2-to-1 favorite. I won't lay those odds instead taking a plus price on the puck line in the belief this game will be a blowout. Even it is tight, the Maple Leafs will be pulling their goalie earlier than usual if down by a goal late in the game thus increasing the chances of a multple goal winning game for Washington. This is just the third time the Maple Leafs have made the postseason since 2003-04. Toronto has some exciting young talent, but lacks the Captials' defense and playoff experience. Opening on the road makes it even more difficult for the Maple Leafs. Washington has won 76 percent of its past 78 home games, including going 32-7-2 this season. The Capitals have dominated the Maple Leafs winning seven of the last eight meetings. The Capitals had a down goal-scoring year from Alex Ovechkin - at least by his high standards - but still scored the third-most goals in the league. The Maple Leafs were fifth in goals scored, but are not used to the increased tight-checking that goes on in the playoffs. The Capitals also possess a huge edge in the nets with Braden Holtby, who had a career-best 2.07 GAA while leading the NHL with nine shutouts. | |||||||
04-13-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -120 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm a fan of lefty Brett Anderson, especially when he's healthy and pitching for a great team like he is now backed by an outstanding defensive infield. | |||||||
04-12-17 | Astros -109 v. Mariners | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Seattle has problems. That's evident by the Mariners' 2-7 start. Shortstop Jean Segura is on the DL and the team isn't hitting ranking 28th in batting. I don't see things improving for the Mariners in this game, not with a pitching matchup of Mike Fiers versus Yovani Gallardo. Fiers posted a 1.98 ERA during spring training and was sharp in his regular season debut holding Kansas City to one earned run in six innings. He hasn't allowed more than three walks in a game for the past 35 starts. Fiers pitched once last year at Safeco Field and shut out the Mariners pitching six innings. Gallardo is a shot pitcher, far removed from his All-Star days of seven years ago. Gallardo has lost a lot on his fastball. He posted a 5.42 ERA with the Orioles last season in 23 starts and wasn't impressive during spring training with an 0-2 mark and 7.47 ERA in five outings. | |||||||
04-12-17 | Spurs +4 v. Jazz | Top | 97-101 | Push | 0 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Gregg Popovich said he won't be resting players against Utah tonight. I take Popovich at his word especially since the Spurs are 1-3 in their last four games. Popovich doesn't want his team entering the playoffs flat plus the postseason won't start for a few more days so there's a rust factor he wants to avoid. So expect a strong effort from the Spurs. It's a bonus they are getting this many points. Utah knows it's not going to overtake the Clippers to earn the fourth-seed in the West and get first-round home-court advantage. Not when the Clippers are 15 1/2-point home favorites against the Kings tonight. Either way, the Jazz will be meeting the Clippers in the first-round of the playoffs. The Jazz have bigger priorities. They need to get the rust of point guard George Hill, who played on Monday against the Warriors after missing six games with a strained right groin. The Jazz have to get three starters - Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors and Rodney Hood - all healthy along with backup point guard Raul Neto. All of them missed Utah's last game. It's not a given they all will play against the Spurs. Hayward would be especially missed being the Jazz's top offensive player. The Jazz have a terrible track record, too, versus Western Conference foes going 8-22-1 ATS the past 31 times facing them. | |||||||
04-12-17 | Bucks +14 v. Celtics | 94-112 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
The Celtics need to win this game to clinch home-court advantage for the Eastern Conference playoffs. The Bucks are going to make it easy for them by resting Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Matthew Dellavedova and Tony Snell. The Bucks are doing this because they are locked into the No. 6 seed and will meet Toronto in the first round of the playoffs. The pointspread has been adjusted to reflect this situation. It's my view the spread is too out of whack in favor of Boston. It's one thing for Boston to win. It's another for the Celtics to cover an overinflated spread, something they've had problems doing. Only once in their last 13 games have the Celtics won by more than 10 points. The Nets hung in against Boston two nights ago on the road losing by nine points. The combination of the Bucks' remaining players being as good as Brooklyn's and the Celtics not playing that well make me believe Milwaukee will cover this number. The Celtics can't help but be overconfident in this spot knowing who the Bucks are sitting out. If you discount holding the disjointed Knicks to 94 points, the Celtics are giving up an average of 112.8 points in their last eight games. This is Boston's fifth game in eight days. So the backdoor will be fully open if the Celtics should open a big lead. The Celtics have covered only two of their last nine games, too. The Bucks haven't allowed more than 82 points during their last two games. They've split two games with Boston this season with the outcomes being decided by one point in overtime and by three points. So that has been a very tight series. The obvious question is how wounded will the Bucks be minus Antetokounmpo and Middleton, their two best players? The Bucks will be impacted eough where they have no shot of winning the game straight-up. However, star rookie point guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned from a back injury. He's Milwaukee's third-best player. The Bucks also have their fourth-best player in reserve Greg Monroe. Mirza Teletovic and Michael Beasley, who has had a surprisingly decent season, will play. So the Bucks aren't desolute. | |||||||
04-12-17 | Blue Jackets v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
I see both teams playing tight here with a lot of intensity and physical play. The Blue Jackets enter the playoffs on a bad 1-6 run. They are averaging less than two goals per game during their last 10 games. Only one of the Blue Jackets' last eight away games went above the total. Columbus can't let Sidney Crosby beat them and that's where Brandon Dubinsky comes in. Dubinsky is a physical center, who has a history of bothering Crosby, the NHL's top goal scorer this season. Both teams have solid goalies with Sergei Bobrovsky and Matt Muray, who was particularly good at home for Pittsburgh going 17-5. The teams just met a eight days ago in Pittsburgh with Murray in net and the Penguins won, 4-1. Wednesday Free Play Bruins minus $1.20 at Senators What does it say when the Bruins are favored in this Game 1 despite being on the road and losing all four regular-season meetings to the Senators? It tells us the oddsmaker believes Boston is the superior team. I agree. The Bruins are the more experienced playoff team, have the better goalie in Tukka Rask over Craig Anderson and hold huge edges in special teams. The Bruins are the top penalty-killing unit in the NHL. They also ranked seventh in power play scoring percentage. Ottawa rates 22nd in penalty killing and 23rd in power play scoring percentage. Boston is better, too, offensively. Brad Marchand and David Pastmak are the two best goal scorers in the game. The Senators were held to just 28 goals during their last 15 games. The Bruins are much better since Bruce Cassidy took over going 20-8-1 since then. Yes, Ottawa did go 4-0 versus the Bruins in the regular season but each of those games could have gone either way. Now, when the pressure really is on, I see the Bruins prevailing. | |||||||
04-11-17 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
These teams opened their series Monday with the Reds winning, 7-1. Both bullpens had to go long innings in the game. Pirates starter Tyler Glasnow couldn't make it out of the second inning while Reds starter Brandon Finnegan couldn't survive the third inning. Neither bullpen is upper echelon especially the Reds. And both carry high fatigue ratings. I do like Pirates starter Jameson Taillon. But the Reds are going with Rookie Davis, who will be making his second big league start. He got shelled in his debut this past Thursday giving up four runs on five hits and two walks in three innings versus the Phillies. Davis' ERA is 12.00. The Reds have scored four or more runs in four of their last five games, including seven or more runs in three of their last five. The Pirates had scored 17 runs during their three previous games until Monday's game. Weather-wise there's an 8-to-10 mph wind blowing out to left. There's also a possibility of rain, which could mean more extended bullpen innings. One trend to note involving scheduled home plate Mike DiMuro. The over has cashed in 10 of his last 12 games behind the plate. | |||||||
04-11-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs OVER 212.5 | Top | 109-91 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
This is a matchup of the No. 3 scoring team, Denver, versus the lowest-scoring team, Dallas. The Nuggets average 111.8 points, third-best in the league. The Mavericks score just 98 points per game. So why a play on the Over when on paper this total looks to be lined correctly? If we go inside the numbers and look into the setting for this matchup it becomes clear the Over has a very good chance of coming in. The spot is this: Both teams are eliminated from playoff contention. So this becomes a no-pressure game that should have a loose, offensive-feel to it. The Mavericks are going with a lot of young, seldom-used players now. They have fresh legs, important this late in the season. But Dallas also will have back its leading scorer, Harrison Barnes. He rested during the Mavericks' last game, but will play here. Barnes averages 19.2 points. Denver ranks 27th defensively yielding 111.5 points per contest and also ranks second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. Making this atmosphere even more loose is that this is Tony Romo's "Maverick for a Day" game. The former Cowboys starting quarterback is going to sit on Dallas' bench in uniform. The Nuggets should get their points. If you discount their performance against the Pelicans, the Nuggets have averaged 119 points during their last 13 games. They've often played better on the road where the over has cashed in six of their last seven away contests. The Mavericks are giving up an average of 109 points in their last four games, including allowing 124 to the Suns during their last game this past Sunday. Phoenix shot 55 percent from the field in that game. This game also is lined in the pick range so overtime is a possibility. | |||||||
04-10-17 | Nets +11 v. Celtics | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Boston isn't playing well enough to cover this inflated number. The Celtics have surrendered 114 or more points in four of their last five games. The Celtics have failed to cover during their last five home games and are 2-6 ATS the past eight times meeting below .500 teams. On tap for Boston is a revenge game against the Bucks at home on Wednesday. Brooklyn has been under the radar going 11-11 in its last 22 games, including going 4-1 in its last five games. The Nets have been getting contributions from unsung players such as Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson. Brooklyn is more respectable with Jeremy Lin healthy. Brook Lopez is having a nice season, too. The Nets have covered in seven of their last nine away contests. Only once in their last 14 games have they lost by double digits. They rank 12th in points per game so they have the offense to take advantage of Boston's recent defensive woes. | |||||||
04-09-17 | Wolves -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
There are many reasons why I like the Timberwolves to cover this number. Some are obvious with the main one being Minnesota is the superior team. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins easily give the Timberwolves the two best players on the court. Ricky Rubio is having his finest career stretch averaging 19 points and 10 assists during his last 10 games. This, though, is build into the line. That's why Minnesota is a road favorite. To beat the line and cover the spread, though, we have to go beyond the obvious and look past the numbers. The Lakers have won three in a row beating the Kings, Spurs and Grizzlies. They haven't won four in a row all season. Prior to their win streak, the Lakers had lost 18 of 20. So what is going on? Have the Lakers really improved? No. They rank with the Nets, Suns and Kings as among the four worst teams in the NBA. During their win streak, the Lakers defeated the Kings, who are in tank mode, too. The Lakers beat the Spurs because Gregg Popovich didn't want his Spurs to win that game. That may have been the most bizarre game of the season, but I don't question Popovich, the best coach in the game. The Lakers did play hard in upsetting the Grizzlies at Staples Center, but Memphis was missing four rotation players, including their best big man, Marc Gasol. It's in the Lakers' best interest to LOSE. This is something management is well aware of and why the Lakers have been giving minutes to inexperienced bench players such as Tyler Ennis, Corey Brewer, Tarick Black and Thomas Robinson. Even long-ago washed-up, mental patient Metta World Peace has averaged 13 minutes of playing time during the last two games. The Lakers now only have the third-worst record in the NBA passing the Suns. If the Lakers can sneak behind the Suns again to finish with the second-worst record instead of the third their chances of winning the lottery go from 47 percent to 56 percent. Improving their lottery odds is far more important to Lakers management than seeing their team win a meaningless April game against the Timberwolves. So you have to question LA's motivation here. That won't be the case with the Timberwolves and their fiery coach Tom Thibodeau. Minnesota entered its current four-game road trip winning three of four. But the Timberwolves are 0-3 on their road trip losing to the Warriors, Trail Blazers and Jazz. Those teams are all extremely hard to beat at home. Thibodeau will be coaching hard - like he always does - and doesn't want to end this road swing going 0-4. The Timberwolves are stepping way down in class after their first three away contests. Thibodeau also will be reminding his team about their last visit to Staples Center against the Lakers. That was on March 24. The Timberwolves blew an eight-point lead with around 2 1/2 minutes left and lost in overtime. | |||||||
04-08-17 | Avalanche v. Stars OVER 5.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a loose, high-scoring game between two teams who aren't going to the playoffs and have terrible defenses and goaltenders. The Avalanche rank last defensively, but have scored two or more goals in all but one of their last 10 games. Dallas gives up the second-most goals per game. The Stars' offense declined a lot from last season, but is still decent. Dallas has scored three goals in each of its last four games. The Stars have been a big over team at home. The over has cashed 17 of the past 22 times the Stars have been home. | |||||||
04-08-17 | Marlins v. Mets -120 | 8-1 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
I like the Mets to bounce back today at home after losing to the Marlins in the opener of the series on Friday. The Mets are the better team and have the superior starting pitcher in a matchup of southpaw Adam Conley versus Robert Gsellman. I'm high on Gsellman, who was 4-2 with a 2.42 ERA in eight games last season. The Marlins have never faced him. The Mets just faced a southpaw yesterday. Now they draw Conley, who missed the last six weeks of last season because of left hand teninitis. Conley didn't look good in spring training giving up 12 runs, including nine earned, in 15 2/3 innings. | |||||||
04-08-17 | Celtics -120 v. Hornets | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The Celtics are ready to win again after suffering embarrassing blowout losses to the Cavaliers and Hawks. This is a step down in class for Boston. The Celtics need to get back on track and still have hopes of winning the Eastern Conference being one game behind Cleveland after the Cavaliers were stunned by the Hawks last night. This is reality check time now for Boston. The Celtics' defense is capable of much better. The Celtics have owned the Hornets covering seven of the last eight times against them. Boston is 3-0 versus Charlotte this season winning by an average margin of eight points. The Hornets' run at making the final playoff spot has realistically ended. Charlotte is three games behind the last playoff spot with three games left. The Hornets are a spent team and haven't been good at home failing to cover in 13 of their last 19 home games. | |||||||
04-07-17 | Heat +6 v. Raptors | Top | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Only twice in their last 16 games have the Heat lost by more than four points. I don't see Miami getting blown out here in a revenge spot from a 101-84 home loss to the Raptors and with the team back in sync following a blowout road victory against Charlotte in their last game. The Heat need every victory in their playoff quest. The Heat have covered 13 of their last 16 versus opponents with a winning record. They are 8-2 ATS on the road the past 10 times versus an above .500 home team. Erik Spoelstra has done a great job with Miami. I wouldn't argue if he were named Coach of the Year. This is Toronot's second game with Kyle Lowry back a point guard. So there's still an adjustment period. | |||||||
04-06-17 | Nets v. Magic -2.5 | Top | 107-115 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
Orlando doesn't have much, if anything to play for this season, except for this game. The teams just met this past Saturday in Brooklyn and the Nets defeated the Magic, 121-111. Brooklyn has been playing its finest ball of the season. I acknowledge that. But the Nets still are one of the three worst teams in the NBA if not the worse. I like Orlando's talent much better than Brooklyn's especially with Aaron Gordon beginning to play better. Orlando is 2-2 in its last four home games with one of those lossess occurring to the Thunder in overtime. Only once in their last six visits have the Nets covered in Orlando. The Magic had also won five straight versus the Nets until losing on Saturday. The Magic won't lack motivation in this revenge spot. The Nets are due for a flat spot having won three in a row. They host the Bulls on Saturday in their final home game. So the spot is ripe for the Magic. They have home-court and the better talent. Add it up and it should result in a cover for the Magic. | |||||||
04-05-17 | Raptors +1 v. Pistons | Top | 105-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
Toronto has won eight of its last 10. The Raptors are the No. 3 playoff seed in the East. They are clearly superior to the Pistons even without injured Kyle Lowery. Yet the Pistons currently are favored. I understand the reasoning. Detroit is home, extremely well-rested having last played on Friday, in must-win mode and draw the Raptors without rest. Toronto was blown out by 19 points on the road against the Pacers last night. However ... none of those factors hold up under scrutiny. Detroit realistically has no playoff shot being 2 1/2 games out. The Pistons need to sweep the rest of their games and hope other playoff contenders lose three more games. The Pistons aren't playing well enough for that to happen and their morale is bad. Detroit is 2-9 in its last 11 games and 3-8 ATS. The Pistons' only victories during this span were against the Nets and Suns - two of the three worst teams in the league. Point guard Reggie Jackson is banged-up and so in the doghouse that he's sitting out for journeyman Ish Smith. Playing five days ago also is too long of a layoff at such a late juncture of the season for the Pistons. Look for them to be rusty. The Raptors have much better chemistry. They upgraded their defense at the trade deadline and only DeMar DeRozan logged big minutes last night. | |||||||
04-04-17 | Oilers +105 v. Kings | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
It was just a matter of time and now it's official. The Kings aren't making the playoffs. Edmonton is going to the playoffs after an 11-season absence. The Oilers are only two points behind the Ducks for first place in the Pacific Division. So the Oilers are the team with the motivation. Edmonton has won five in a row and will be rested having last played on Saturday. LA is 2-11 the past 13 times playing an above .500 opponent. The Oilers have been sparked by superstar Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, both of whom have 10-game point streaks going. The Oilers have scored three or more goals in seven of their last 10 games. They've notched a mind-boggling seven goals in three of those games during this span. The Kings' offense, not strong to begin, has gone into hibernation. The Kings have managed to break the two-goal barrier only twice in their last 11 games. LA also is going to have to deal with hot goalie Cam Talbot, who has stopped 88 of 93 shots during his last three games. Talbot has been tremendous, too, against the Kings posting a 3-0 mark with a 0.67 goals-against-average in his last three outings versus the Kings. | |||||||
04-04-17 | Bucks v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 79-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is two levels higher than Milwaukee when playing at home, which is the case here. The Thunder have been dominant at Cheaspeake Energy Arena going 20-8-1 ATS the past 29 times. They've been especially strong versus weaker road teams going 13-4 ATS the past 17 times versus sub .500 road clubs. Oklahoma City has covered eight of the past 10 times as home chalk, but is in stop-the-pain mode with a two-game losing streak. This includes a home loss to the Hornets two days ago in its last game. The Thunder is going for a high seed in the playoffs. Memphis, which would be the seventh-seed if the playoffs began now, is just 1 1/2 games behind the Thunder. Oklahoma City definitely wants to avoid having to tangle with the Warriors or Spurs early in the playoffs. The Bucks could be short-handed in the backcourt if good-looking rookie guard Malcom Brogdon has to miss a third consecutive game because of back pain. | |||||||
04-04-17 | Raptors v. Pacers UNDER 206 | 90-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Want a great below-the-radar number? The Raptors have gone under the total in 14 of their last 17 road games. In their last three away contests, the Raptors have held the Mavericks to 86, Heat to 84 and Pistons to 75. So look for a lower-scoring matchup than the oddsmaker is projecting. Indiana is off a heart-breaking double overtime 135-130 road loss to the Cavaliers. That could mean fatigue issues for Paul George, who also presents a tough defensive matchup for DeMar DeRozan. The Pacers figure to play at a slow pace after such a strenous effort in their last game. The teams just met this past Friday in Toronto. The Raptors won, 111-100. Now the total opened higher than what that total closed, which was 204. The Raptors play tighter on the road. The under has cashed the past five times, too, when the teams have played at Indiana. | |||||||
04-03-17 | North Carolina -125 v. Gonzaga | Top | 71-65 | Win | 100 | 20 h 2 m | Show |
I predicted the Tar Heels would win the national title and I'm certainly not backing down now. This isn't a fade on Gonzaga, but a play on North Carolina. Both teams have impressive talent and similar offensive skills. The Tar Heels hold the experience edge and rebounding advantage. Rebounding has been a weakness at times for the Zags this season. No team gets more offensive rebounds than North Carolina. Roy Williams has been to six NCAA championship games. This is Mark Few's first. That can't be underestimated. The last time a West Coast team won the NCAA title was Arizona 20 years ago. The last program to win a championship during its first tile game appearance was Connecticut in 1999. The Zags are 0-7 versus No. 1 seeds losing by an averaging of 14.4 points. The Tar Heels also played in a far tougher conference and also had to go through a tougher NCAA Tournament pairing than Gonzaga. | |||||||
04-02-17 | Bulls v. Pelicans -6.5 | Top | 117-110 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
It has taken a while, but the Pelicans have gotten in sync with DeMarcus Cousins on board to join Anthony Davis. New Orleans has won eight of its last 11 games going 7-4 ATS. They have won their past six home contests, which is a season high, covering five of those games while beating the spread by an average of 12.6 points during this span. Cousins is playing his finest ball since joining New Orleans averaging 34 points and 12.8 rebounds in his last four games. The Pelicans are 5-1 the past six games when having Cousins in the lineup. The Bulls had to come from behind to hold off the Hawks on Saturday winning by just two points Saturday at home, 106-104. This victory followed a great win by the Bulls against the Cavaliers. Chicago has three more road games following this matchup. Those games look much easier on paper as the Bulls face the Knicks, 76ers and Nets. This is the matchup where the Bulls face the most trouble. | |||||||
04-02-17 | Islanders v. Sabres -123 | 4-2 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
I don't see the Islanders emerging from the horrible spot that the timing of this game brings. The Islanders are practically playing without rest having been in action Friday night and with this being a day game. It's also a three-in-four-days scenario for the Islanders, who have lost the past five times in that situation. Worse than the situation, though, for the Islanders is losing team captain and best player, John Taveres. He suffered a lower-body injury Friday and is out. Taveres not only is a great player, but the heart of hte team. Buffalo has won three of its last four home games, all by multiple goals. The Sabres' lone home loss during this span came to the defending Stanley Cup champion Penguins. The Sabres have been idle since Tuesday so they should they have extremely fresh legs. They also get back star defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen from a three-game suspension. The Sabres have scored 70 percent of their power play goals in their last five games. The Islanders, who rank 27th in power play, are just 3-for-33 on the power play in their last 10 games. | |||||||
04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina -4.5 | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 2 m | Show |
Oregon has been riding a lot of momentum. But North Carolina has a height and talent edge. The week layoff takes away Oregon's momentum, too. So I'm going with the Tar Heels. North Carolina has far more Big Dance experience than Oregon. The Tar Heels nearly won the NCAA Tournament last season losing on late basket in the title game. Oregon's last Final Four NCAA Tourney experience came in 1939. This is the matchup where the Ducks are really going to miss Chris Boucher, out for the season after sustaining a knee injury during a semifinal game in the Pac-12 Conference Tournament. Boucher's absence leaves Jordan Bell as the lone quality big man the Ducks have. Bell has had an outstanding NCAA Tournament, but he's not going to be able to hold off the Tar Heels on the boards. North Carolina has the best rebound differential of any team since Michigan State in 2001 at plus 13. No major conference team has come close since then of having that big of a difference on the boards. The Ducks have advanced this far in the tournament by outrebounding each of their opponents. That's not going to happen here. | |||||||
04-01-17 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
Things are back looking up for Atlanta. The Hawks took a while adjusting to being without leading scorer and best player, Paul Millsap. The Hawks lost seven in a row during a two-week period from March 13-26. Some of that, though, was because of playing strong competition. The Hawks went up against the Spurs, Grizzlies, Trail Blazers, Wizards and hot Bucks during this span. The Hawks have now won two in a row. Those victories have come against the Suns and 76ers on the road. Yes, the Bulls are a step above those lottery clubs. But Chicago is three games below .500. They aren't very good either and are without Dwayne Wade. Millsap still remains out. But I like this spot for Atlanta. The Hawks have been idle since Wednesday. Sparkplug guard Kent Bazemore is back for Atlanta. He was instrumental in the Hawks' 99-92 road win against the 76ers, who happen to own the best ATS mark in the NBA. I'm expecting a fresh, energectic, well-prepared Hawks squad. The Bulls are coming off a huge Friday home win against the Cavaliers. They still could be on Cloud Nine. Chicago is 2-7 ATS the past nine times playing on one day's rest. The Bulls also have failed to cover in six of their last seven meetings versus the Hawks. | |||||||
03-31-17 | Kings v. Canucks +150 | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
The Canucks aren't very good. But neither are the Kings. The Kings are fooling themselves if they still believe they have a playoff chance because they don't. Not being 10 points down for the final wild-card spot with six games remaining. The Kings are coming off a 4-1 win against Calgary this past Wednesday, but are 3-6 in their past nine games. LA isn't a good road as evidenced by a 15-19-3-2 mark. The Kings have dropped five of their last six away contests. Vancouver is 18-14-6 at home. The spot is good, too, for the Canucks. They've been idle the past two days while the Kings are playing for the third in four days. The time off should help Henrik Sedin and goalie Ryan Miller, both of whom are due for strong performances. Kings goalie Jonathan Quick is giving up 3.46 goals per game on the road. Add it all up and there's definitely good value for backing the home 'dog Canucks. | |||||||
03-31-17 | Pistons +10 v. Bucks | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The Pistons have turned very ugly losing eight of their last 10 games. Reggie Jackson has been ineffective, Andre Drummond is the worst free throw shooter in NBA history for a prominent player and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was arrested on Wednesday for suspicion of drunk driving. So why endorse these losers? Call me a sucker, but I believe the Pistons hang with the Bucks here. Milwaukee has won 17 of its last 23 games. Kris Middleton has made a difference offensively and defensively, too. He's been a big key why the Bucks have played so well since losing Jabari Parker. Yet the Bucks have failed to cover three of the last four times they've been favored. They are 0-3 the last times when laying more than six points. This is just the third time they are favored by more than nine points with the other two times coming against the 76ers and Nets. Speaking of the Nets, the Pistons grabbed a much needed victory by edging them, 90-89, last night stopping their five-game losing streak. The Pistons still retain playoff hopes. This is a must-win spot for them. They are due for a much better performance. I see them playing very hard here. Drummond is going to be brutal at the free throw line, but he's the best rebounder on the court. Underrated Ish Smith is an improvement on Jackson at point guard and Caldwell-Pope won't be suspended. Any punishment to him would occur at the start of next season. | |||||||
03-30-17 | Clippers v. Suns +10.5 | Top | 124-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Writeup available shortly. | |||||||
03-29-17 | Warriors +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
No fancy handicap here. I'll take this many points with the Warriors in a double revenge spot and playing more focused with better defense than they were before. Golden State was a rare underdog last night and beat the Rockets. They are 7-2 ATS now versus home foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Spurs are 3-9 ATS following a victory. I respect Gregg Popovich more than any other coach, but the Warriors are at least equal to the Spurs even without Kevin Durant. | |||||||
03-28-17 | TCU -2.5 v. UCF | Top | 68-53 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
TCU played a more difficult schedule that Central Florida, carries a higher RPI ranking, is playing its best ball and I trust Jamie Dixon and the Horned Frogs' passing ability to dent the Knights' outstanding defense. TCU is an excellent passing team and has a backcourt edge. I really like its ball movement. The Horned Frogs averaged 17 assists per game. Dixon has had ample practice and preparation time to combat the freak presence of ace defender 7-foot-6 Tacko Fall. The Horned Frogs can create good matchups based on their passing ability. Fall has to deal with fatigue never having played this many games before. I just don't believe he'll be as big a factor as perceived and Central Florida doesn't have enough offense to compensate if its defense isn't playing at a high level. | |||||||
03-28-17 | Kings v. Oilers -125 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Maybe the Kings present an effort here - not exactly a given - but even so they are inferior to the Oilers this season. The two teams just met eight days ago when the Kings' playoff hopes weren't quite as bleak. The Oilers won, 2-0, at home. The Kings couldn't score then and they are still having trouble putting the puck in the net. Discount a five-goal performance versus defensively-challenged Winnipeg and the Kings have scored seven goals during their last six games. LA has lost five of its last seven to fall a hopeless 11 points out of a final wild-card spot. Things are looking much better for the Oilers.Theyve won six of seven to move within two points of first-place Anaheim. Cam Talbot shut out the Kings on March 20 and is slated to be in goal again. | |||||||
03-27-17 | Grizzlies -6.5 v. Kings | Top | 90-91 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Do you envision the Grizzlies losing to the Kings here? I don't. The question is can the Grizzlies win by enough of a margin to cover this number. I believe the setting is ripe for the Grizzlies to accomplish that even if Marc Gasol remains out. This is Memphis' final game of a four-game road swing. They lost the first three games to the Pelicans, Spurs and Warriors. No shame in losing to San Antonio and Golden State, perhaps the two best teams in the NBA. Now the Grizzlies step down from the elite to the bottom-five. That's what the Kings have become since giving away DeMarcus Cousins, going 3-12 since he departed. The Grizzlies' past 13 victories have all come by at least seven points. That's a promising sign figuring they are going to win this game. Memphis has dominated this series, too, winning 19 of the past 22 times. The Kings have to be fat and happy after pulling out a one-point road victory against the Clippers in their last game yesterday rallying from 18 points down with just five minutes left. That could be the most improbable comeback victory of the season. Now the Kings travel home where they have dropped seven of their last eight. | |||||||
03-27-17 | Blackhawks -121 v. Lightning | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -121 | 16 h 9 m | Show |
Chicago is much superior to Tampa Bay with 12 more victories and eight fewer losses. The key question is will the Blackhawks have the motivation to win this road game when they are all but assured of the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference? I certainly believe so. Not only do the Blackhawks have revenge for a 5-2 home loss suffered to the Lightning back in January, but they were humiliated, 7-0, on the road by the Panthers in their last game this past Saturday. I see that defeat - which Blackhawks coach Joel Quenneville called "an ugly, ugly loss" - as a wakeup call. The Blackhawks had been playing well going 6-0-1 in their previous seven games. The Blackhawks are usually very strong on the road winning 13 of their past 16 away games. They are 8-0 the past eight times on the road when meeting an opponent with a winning home record. | |||||||
03-26-17 | Stars v. Devils +115 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Neither team is going to the playoffs, but I want the home team with an early start time that has the better defense and goalie. Dallas is fat and happy after stunning the Sharks, 6-1, at home on Friday. However, the Stars have dropped 20 of their last 27 road games, including four of their las five. Dallas also is 6-23 the past 29 times following a victory. | |||||||
03-26-17 | Kings +13.5 v. Clippers | Top | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
The Clippers have a poor track record in these types of situation. LA just clinched a playoff berth with a 108-95 home win against Utah on Saturday. That was a highyly-satisfying victory for LA. So it's going to be difficult for the Clippers to match that intensity against the struggling Kings. The Clippers are 1-8 ATS the past nine times versus foes with a losing record. They also have failed to cover the last five times following a double-digit victory. The Clippers are a playoff team, but they are not elite status. They've just been mediocre going 9-9 in their last 18 games. This marks their third game in four days and they are off the next two days so there could be a tendency to just win and relax. The Kings have become terrible since trading DeMarcus Cousins. They have a lot of youngsters playing for their futures so at least they should product a full effort. | |||||||
03-26-17 | South Carolina +3.5 v. Florida | Top | 77-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This game isn't going to be pretty. It's going to be an intense, grind-out, defensive matchup between two SEC foes who know each other well having split their two games this season. So I want South Carolina's defense, senior star guard Sindarius Thornwell and the points going for me. The Gamecocks ranked fifth nationally in turnovers forced per game. They've continued their outstanding defense in the tournament. Thornwell was the SEC Player of the Year and he hasn't disappointed in the Big Dance stepping up even more to average 25.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals while also making 10 of 22 3-pointers. He'll be the best player on the court. South Carolina displayed its defensive dominance in taking down Baylor, 70-50, on Friday holding the Bears to 30.4 percent from the floor. Florida had a much tougher game on Friday sneaking past Wisconsin in overtime, 84-83, on a 3-point buzzer-beater by Chris Chiozza. The Gators blew a late 12-point lead and it remains open to discussion how much energy that game took out of them both physically and mentally. The short turnaround is a major advantage for South Carolina. | |||||||
03-25-17 | Rangers +119 v. Kings | 3-0 | Win | 119 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
A pair of one-goal defeats have left the Rangers on a two-game losing streak. You have to go back to Jan. 17 to find the last time the Rangers suffered a third consecutive loss. The Rangers are 17 points better than the Kings, who are all but eliminated from the playoffs. New York has a plus 40 goal differential while the Kings are minus three. The Kings are home and backup Anti Raanta will be in goal again for New York. But the Rangers shouldn't be an underdog. Raanta is one of the better backups and the Kings rank 25th in goals per game. The Kings had gone five straight games of scoring fewer than three goals before breaking out in a 5-2 home win against Winnipeg two days ago. I'm not impressed as the Jets have the second-worst defense in the league. The Rangers have the best road mark in the NHL at 26-9-1. They are 16-5 the past 21 times on the road when facing an opponent with a winning home record. | |||||||
03-25-17 | Raptors +1 v. Mavs | Top | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
Toronto is playing with a lot of confidence, winners of four in a row. I consider the Raptors a better team than the Mavericks. That was proven just 12 days ago when Toronto blasted Dallas, 100-78. The Raptors outrebounded Dallas by 21 in that game. The Mavericks have ranked with the Kings as one of the worst rebounding teams since the All-Star break. Dirk Nowitzki can't cut it at center and the league has caught up to the Mavericks' youthful backcourt of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Their play has tailed way off after being initially surprisingly good. DeMar DeRozan is on fire producing consecutive 40-point games. Serge Ibaka is back from a one-game suspension to further exploit the Mavericks' rebounding weakness. Toronto has proven it can still win without Kyle Lowery going 10-5 in his absence. | |||||||
03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga -7.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Xavier is on a surprisingly great run. Gonzaga has yet to play its "A" game in the NCAA Tournament. The due factor is going to kick in here. Look for the Bulldogs to roll past Xavier by double-digits. The 11th-seeded Musketeers kept their miracle of winning the NCAA Tournament alive by closing on a 9-0 run to steal a 73-71 win from second-seed Arizona Thursday. Xavier and LSU of 1987 are the only teams in tournament history to take out three top six seeds during their first three games. That takes a big toll, though. And this is a quick turnaround. It has been a great run for Xavier. Much props to the Musketeers, but I see their season ending here. The team has too many imperfections, a size disadvantage with just one starter taller than 6-foot-6 and a key injury that will hurt them here with starting point guard Edmond Sumner missing after being lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in late January. Standout wing Trevon Bluiett isn't 100 percent either from an ankle injury. Critics of Gonzaga said the Bulldogs couldn't handle West Virginia's pressure defense. Gonzaga did. Now the Bulldogs face Xavier's zone defenses. They'll be ready for that, too, with a necessary inside/outside game that ranked No. 2 in the country in field goal percentage and the 3-point accuracy to rank 68th in 3-point percentage. | |||||||
03-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers UNDER 203.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Expect a lot of defensive intensity and flat offensive play in this game. It's not just the Jazz ranking No. 1 in defense holding foes to 96.5 points a game while also ranking second in defensive field goal percentage and that the Clippers are an above average defensive club themselves. This is a day game. So the teams could be sluggish with an unusual early start time. The Clippers just flew in from Dallas where they were upset by the Mavericks, 97-95, Thursday night. So it's almost a back-to-back spot for them due to the 12:30 local tip-off. The matchup also carries serious playoff ramifications. Both are battling to gain the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference. That's huge because the fourth seed avoids the Warriors, Spurs and Rockets in the first round. Those three teams are a clear cut above the rest of the Western playoff contenders. | |||||||
03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
Youth will be served here and I side with Kentucky's talent over UCLA. Lonzo Ball has had to face a lot of distractions due in large part to his big-mouthed dad. Ball is a great talent, but Kentucky also has great talent in its backcourt - and more depth there. Much is being mentioned about the Bruins beating the Wildcats, 97-92, at Rupp Arena back in early December. That was an impressive victory for UCLA. It ended the Wildcats' 42-game home win streak. The Bruins also shot 53 percent from the floor while the Wildcats made just 41 percent of their field goals, which was a season-low at the time. Kentucky isn't going to shoot that bad again and the Bruins aren't going to be that hot again. The Wildcats have been playing outstanding defense holding eight of their last nine opponents to 70 or less points. Opponents have shot under 40 percent during this span against Kentucky. It's a big advantage for the Wildcats - even though they lost - to have played UCLA because now they are fully aware of how fast the Bruins' ball movement is. They won't be taken by surprise not to mention they have a huge revenge factor. The Wildcats are the more physical team. They've yet to play a strong game in the Tournament so far. I say that comes here. | |||||||
03-24-17 | Cavs -2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Cavaliers are two levels higher than the Hornets and shouldn't lack for motivation after getting blown out by the Nuggets, 126-113, this past Wednesday. That cut Cleveland's lead to just one game over Boston for top record in the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is as brilliant as ever, Kyrie Irving is having a strong month and the Cavaliers are finally fully healthy with both Kevin Love and Kyle Korver back from injuries. Irving is averaging nearly 40 points in his last two games. The Cavaliers are 3-0 versus the Hornets this season with a winning margin being by an average of 10 points. The Hornets have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 home contests | |||||||
03-24-17 | Nuggets v. Pacers -123 | 125-117 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
The Pacers are one of those bad road/good home teams. They are 25-10 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and 11-25 on the road. Denver is 13-20 away from Pepsi Center and 3-8 ATS the past 11 times facing a foe with a winning home mark. Indiana has won four in a row at home, winning those games by an average of 12.3 points. Paul George is back playing at his All-Star level. He's averaging nearly 27 points this month. Not only are both teams involved in playoff runs, but the Pacers have an added revenge motive for an embarrassing 140-112 road loss to Denver on Jan. 12. Denver is a bit fat and happy after upsetting the defending champion Cavaliers by 13 points at home this past Wednesday. They are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times following a victory. Stephen Nover Free Friday Play Hawks plus 5 1/2 at Bucks It takes a lot of zigging and zagging to beat a don't-make-sense league such as the NBA. We have a perfect example today: Take Atlanta plus the points at Milwaukee. The Hawks have lost five in a row. The Bucks are returning from a 4-2 road trip, marking the first time since the 1988-'89 season Milwaukee won four games during a single road trip. Logic says lay the points with the Bucks. Logic, though, doesn't work too often in the NBA. If it did the sport would be easy to win at instead of being what many pro gamblers consider the most difficult sport to beat. Still, why get involved with the cold Hawks? We go back a little more than two weeks ago to help get the answer. Atlanta was riding a three-game winning streak from March 8-12 defeating the Nets, Raptors and Grizzlies in Memphis. Then the Hawks lost to the Spurs. No shame in that. The Grizzlies got their revenge against the Hawks following that game. Again, no shame in losing to Memphis. But then in their next game - home against Portland this past Saturday - the Hawks lost by 16 points. Paul Millsap injured his knee during warmups prior to that game and the Hawks had trouble adjusting without their best player. Millsap, a four-time All-Star, leads Atlanta in scoring and is second in rebounding, assists and steals. Coupled with the loss of underrated Kent Bazemore, the Hawks proceeded to drop their next game, 105-90, to the Hornets in Charlotte. That was the Hawks' fourth straight loss with the defeats coming by an average of 12.8 points per game. These are the short windows of opportunity that come and go in the NBA. They don't stay open long as team and oddsmaker adjust. The Hawks covered as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Wizards in losing, 104-100, two days ago in their last game. Atlanta is not going to have Millsap nor Bazemore against the Bucks. But the team has made the proper adjustments. The Hawks showed progress against the Wizards and are now less depended on Millsap. The Hawks have a strong track record against the Bucks and draw Milwaukee in a vulnerable situational spot. The Bucks are a bit fat and happy following their successful six-game, 11-day road journey that concluded with a blowout victory against the Kings in Sacramento this past Wednesday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo is an absolute monster on pace to join Ocar Robertson and Magic Johnson as the only player to average more than 20 points, eight rebounds and five assists under the age of 22. If my Rotisserie fantasy basketball draft were being held now I would rank Antetokounmpo as the fourth overall player behind Russell Westbrook, James Harden and Anthony Davis. The Bucks are a young team whose maturity is under question. The Bucks have their long-time arch rivals, the Bulls, on deck Sunday at home. I wouln't trust the Bucks to bring their "A" game here considering the circumstanes. They still could be getting used to the time change having been on the West Coast the past week. It should be noted the Bucks may be without backup center John Henson. He missed Milwauke's last game with a thumb injury. If Henson can't play that would be one less big man to hack Dwight Howard. The Hawks need point guard Dennis Schroder to return to his earlier solid form. He's been terrible during the Hawks' losing streak. Point guard is not one of the Bucks' strengths. Veteran forward Ersan Ilyasova also needs to step up. He's a former Buck so he should be psyched for this matchup. The Hawlks are in stop-the-pain mode. They have just a one-game lead on the Bucks and Pacers for fifth place in the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has a winning straight-up and spread record on the road. They have defeated the Buck in seven of the past nine meetings, including all three this season winning by an average of eight points. The Hawks have covered in seven of their last eight visits to Milwaukee. | |||||||
03-23-17 | Purdue v. Kansas -5 | Top | 66-98 | Win | 100 | 62 h 56 m | Show |
Losing in their opening game of the Big 12 Conference Tournament is the best thing that happened to Kansas. That was two weeks ago and extra rest and motivation by that early exit have propelled the Jayhawks to peak at just the right time. Kansas already is arguably the best team in the country and the Jayhawks have played extremely well in the NCAA Tournament blowing by UC-Davis and defeating Michigan State by 20 points. That pushed the Jayhawks' ATS mark to 6-1 when laying points in the NCAA Tourney. Now the Jayhawks get another Big Ten team, Purdue. The Boilermakers lack the Spartans Big Dance Sweet 16 pedigree and while their defense is solid, it ranks among the bottom in steals and forcing turnovers. Kansas has the superior offense and it's in full throttle. The Jayhawks are averaging 87 points during their last five games. The Boilermakers' backcourt can't match Kansas' guard trio of Frank Mason III, Josh Jackson and Devonte' Graham. Those three are averaging a combined 50 points per game. Mason is especially rolling scoring 20 or more points in eight of his last nine games. Technically this is a netural site game being played at Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo. The reality is that it's almost a home game for Kansas being just 35 miles east of Lawrence, home of the Jayhawks. Kansas is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 neutral site games, too, while Purdue is 2-5 ATS the past seven times. | |||||||
03-22-17 | Bucks v. Kings +5 | Top | 116-98 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is a dangerous spot for the Bucks. They pulled off a road upset of Portland last night. This marks the end of their six-game, 10-day road trip. They are playing without rest with home games against Atlanta on Friday and long-time rival Chicag on Sunday looming. Milwaukee is playing well. But the Bucks aren't nearly mature enough to cover a margin like this if they don't produce at least a high "B" game. Milwaukee is 2-8 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. Sacramento has been idle the past two days. The Kings have been tough at home recently beating the Magic and taking the Wizards and Jazz to overtime during three of their last four home contests. The Wizards and Jazz are both superior to the Bucks. | |||||||
03-21-17 | Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5 | Top | 74-66 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
Georgia Tech isn't the same team on the road. The Yellow Jackets are 2-10 away from home. Yes, that's right. Georgia Tech has exactly two road victories. Mississippi has covered six of its last seven home games. The Rebels have had to play their first two NIT games on the road. They are coming off an 85-80 victory against heavyweight Syracuse, while Georgia Tech has had the benefit of playing its first two NIT games at home beating disjointed Indiana - which just fired its coach - and lightly regarded Belmont. It's not just having home-court. That's accounted for in the line. I like the way Mississippi is peaking. The Rebels ended the regular season defeating South Carolina, which has reached the Sweet 16. They followed that with a victory against Missouri in the SEC Tournament, a one-point loss to Arkansas and then road wins against Monmouth and Syracuse in the NIT. The Rebels are getting outstanding guard play from Terence Davis and Deandre Burnett. The two combined for 49 points against Syracuse, including hitting 11 3-pointers in burning the Orange's fabled zone defense. This doesn't bode well for Georgia Tech, which relies on defense to win. Davis has been hot for a while averaging 18.3 points during his last 11 games. Ole Miss also has Sebastian Saiz. He led the SEC in rebounding, ranking fifth in the nation. He's shot only 34 percent from the floor, though, during his past four games. He's better than a 46 percent shooter on the season. So he's due to play better giving the Rebels an inside-outside game. | |||||||
03-21-17 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans OVER 205 | Top | 82-95 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
New Orleans went 2-6 during its first eight games with DeMarcus Cousins. But now Cousins and fellow superstar Anthony Davis are far more in sync. The result has been four wins in their last five games for the Pelicans. The Pelicans are playing at a faster pace now, too. That's helped them average 117.6 points during their last five games of which four have gone over. The Grizzlies are getting career seasons from Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. They are firing more 3-points than ever before. Memphis has reached triple digits in eight of its last 11 games. New Orleans is a below average defensive team. So I see this total as being set too low. | |||||||
03-21-17 | Rangers v. Devils OVER 5 | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
The Rangers are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NHL. They have scored three or more goals in five of their last six games. The Devils are giving up an average of four goals per game during their last five games. The Devils' defense has slipped and their goaltending has proven overrated this season. New Jersey, though, should do its share of damage on the offensive end at home against Rangers backup goalie Antti Raanta. The Devils have scored a power play goal in each of the last four games while the Rangers have yielded a power play goal in six straight games. There haven't been fewer than five goals scored during the past four meetings between the two teams. | |||||||
03-21-17 | Flames +185 v. Capitals | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
There's just too much value to pass up the Flames at this price. The Flames are 17-3-1 in their last 20 games, 9-1 versus Eastern Conference foes and 5-0 in their past five road games. Red-hot goalie Brian Elliott has won the past 11 times he has been in net and Calgary is 12-1 in its last 13 games. The Flames' lone loss during this span was against the Bruins when Ellliott was rested. This isn't a fade on the Capitals, who are playing well themselves. It's a play on the Flames. However, the Capitals' intensity may be down a notch after they just clinched a playoff spot. | |||||||
03-20-17 | Kings v. Oilers -133 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
The matchup and spot set up extremely well for the home ice Oilers. Edmonton has won three in a row outscoring its oppoents, 16-5, during this hot streak. This is the last game of the Oilers' eight-game homestand. A victory here would put the Oilers in second place in the Pacific Divison as they look to make the playoffs for the first time in 10 seasons. Connor McDavid is proving himself to be perhaps the most valuable player in the league with 21 points in his last 18 games. Spirit and momentum are high right now with the Oilers. This is the time to ride them. Not so with the Kings. Los Angeles isn't likely to make the playoffs trailing Nashville by six points for the second wild-card spot in the West with 11 games remaining. The Kings just got blasted, 5-2, by the Flames in Calgary on Sunday. The Kings haven't scored moe than two goals during each of their last four games. They have dropped four of their last five road games, are 0-4 the past four times playing without rest and also are 1-8 when facing a foe with an above . 500 record. Their goaltending hasn't been shapr either. Starting goalie Jonathan Quick was pulled on Sunday after giving up two goals on Calgary's first eight shots and backup Ben Bishop is past his prime. | |||||||
03-20-17 | Warriors -113 v. Thunder | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Beating the Thunder in Oklahoma City isn't easy. But I see the Warriors doing it making the point they don't need Kevin Durant to be able to beat Oklahoma City. Golden State is 3-0 versus the Thunder this season, including breezing past the Thunder, 130-114, at Oklahoma City last month. Going back to last season, the Warriors have covered in each of the last six meetings versus the Thunder. The Warriors have gotten back their mojo since losing Durant to injury winning three in a row. Golden State is at the elite level. It's not asking too much for the Warriors to win this game straight-up. | |||||||
03-20-17 | Utah Valley v. Rice -4.5 | 85-79 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
Rice is home here. That's bad news for Utah Valley, which is 7-10 on the road. Rice has too much offense for the Wolverines. The Owls ranked 24th in the country averaging 81.6 points a game. They are 13-5 at home. | |||||||
03-19-17 | Senators +134 v. Canadiens | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
I'll take a plus price to back the Senators in revenge mode after losing 4-3 in a shootout at home on Saturday to Montreal. The Canadiens are just 2-5-1 during their last eight home games. They are 2-4 in their last six games versus the Senators even counting yesterday's victory. The Senators are 4-1 in their last five road games and would hold a goalie edge if both teams go with backup goalies as expected with Mike Condon being superior to Al Montoya. | |||||||
03-19-17 | Rhode Island v. Oregon UNDER 140 | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
First off the numbers are there for both teams. Rhode Island ranks 33rd defensively giving up 65.1 points a game. The Rams rank No. 2 in blocked shots and No. 3 in defending against 3-pointers. They are 26th in defensive field goal percentage. They also won't have to worry about Chris Boucher, the Ducks' third-leading scorer out with a torn ACL. Oregon also surrenders just 65 points per game. The Ducks led the nation in blocked shots while ranking 21st in defensive field goal percentage and 25th in 3-point defense. Numbers are numbers. They also have to fit the matchup for them to work. That's the case here. Rhode Island isn't skilled enough offensively to take the attack to Oregon. The Rams are merely an average offensive team ranking 109th in 2-point shots, 239th in 3-pointers and 287th in free throw percentage. Oregon is too strong defensively to give the Rams any crack at the basket via fastbreak, or by not taking care of the basketball. So the Rams are going to have to create their own openings and good shots. That's not their strength. They also have a short bench. So expect the Rams to be very methodical here taking their time in setting up their shots. What the Rams do is play with all-out effort. They are well-coached under Danny Hurley with a fundamentally sound defense and underrated size. Boucher is a major loss for Oregon. He was the Ducks' third-leading scorer, No. 2 rebounder and top shot blocker. However, his replacement, Kavell Bigby-Williams, is 6-foot-11 and a good shot-blocker and rebounder. So the Ducks' loss is more on offense than defense. Another plus for the under. | |||||||
03-19-17 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Blackhawks | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
The Blackhawks now have a five-point lead in the Central Division following a 2-1 overtime victory against the Maple Leafs on the road Saturday. Now the Blackhawks are home following a three-game Canadian trip where they beat the Canadiens, Senators and Maple Leafs by a combined four goals. This is Chicago's third game in four days and fourth game in six days. This is a monster letdown spot for the Blackhawks, who also carry a fatigue factor. The Avalanche are the worst team in the NHL, but they've been playing decent going 3-3 in their last six games. The Blackhawks are 3-5 in their last eight games if laying 1 1/2 goals. | |||||||
03-18-17 | Canucks v. Oilers -1.5 | 0-2 | Win | 110 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Edmonton just rolled past Dallas, 7-1, on Tuesday and Boston, 7-4, on Thursday. You have to think the Oilers can win by more than one goal at home against the Canucks, losers of five in a row with each loss occurring at home. All four of the Oilers' lines are playing well. The Canucks have surrendered 17 goals during their last four games. The Canucks aren't doing the job either offensively averaging fewer than two goals per game during their losing streak. They rank second-from-the-bottom in the NHL in goals scored. Vancouver has lost 45 of its last 66 road games. | |||||||
03-18-17 | Rockets -2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Denver doesn't have the defense to slow down the Rockets. Houston beat Denver, 128-110, the past time it played at Pepsi Center this past December. I see the Rockets coming out strong again after a poor effort last night in a 128-112 road loss to the Pelicans. Houston is 16-5 ATS following a loss, 21-10 ATS versus foes with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Rockets are playing short-handed minus two injured players - Danilo Gallinari, their second-best player, and key reserve Wilson Chandler. | |||||||
03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10.5 | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -112 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
Northwestern was lucky to escape Vanderbilt in its first round NCAA Tournament game Thursday. The Wildcats are NCAA Tourney novices. This also is their fifth game in 10 days.They are not good enough, nor ready to step up to face an opponent this good. Gonzaga could be the best team in the country and are far more tournament tested. I find this spread short as I see the Bulldogs burying Northwestern. While Northwestern is on Cloud Nine after getting past the Commodores, Gonzaga is in a kill-mood. The Bulldogs defeated South Dakota State by 20 points in their opening Big Dance game nearly covering a 23-point spread despite a flat performance. Bulldogs coach Mark Few was not happy with his team shooting less than 40 percent from the floor, missing 10 of 18 fgree throws and committing more turnovers than assists. Look for guard Nigel Williams-Goss and the rest of the Bulldogs to play far better. Gonzaga is superior to Wisconsin and the Badgers waxed the Wildcats, 76-48, last Saturday in the Big 10 Conference Tournament. Gonzaga is 20-5-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents. | |||||||
03-17-17 | Magic +2.5 v. Suns | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Magic should be up for this game after their no-show last night against the Warriors. Orlando coach Frank Vogel reamed his team out for that dreadful performance. Orlando has covered eight of the last 10 times in Phoenix. The Suns are going with youth with the latest casualty being their best player, Eric Bledsoe. The Suns have decided to sit him for the rest of the season so he can rest his sore knee. | |||||||
03-17-17 | Raptors +4 v. Pistons | 87-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Not only does Toronto have revenge for a 102-101 road loss last month to the Pistons after blowing a 16-point leading entering the fourth quarter, but they played horrible last night in getting blown out by the Thunder, 123-102, at home. That loss was so bad Raptors coach Dwane Casey apologized to the Toronto fans ripping his team's lack of effort. The good news from that defeat is none of the Raptors played big minutes, DeMarre Carroll return from an ankle injury and the Raptors should be primed for a monster effort today. The Pistons haven't been playing well and don't deserve to be this big of a favorite against the veteran Raptors, who have won six more games than Detroit. | |||||||
03-17-17 | UC-Davis +24 v. Kansas | Top | 62-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
UC Davis is a team I've followed being on the West Coast and familar with the Big West Conference. The Aggies are better than perceived. They have athleticism, can play defense - holding their last four foes to less than 40 percent shooting - and have balanced scoring. The Aggies also won't be nearly as rusty as Kansas having defeated North Carolina Central this past Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament play-in game. The Aggies are excited to play in the NCAA Tournament, a first for them. A full effort from them should be forthcoming. Kansas has a different goal and that's to win not just this game but the entire tournament, a feat the Jayhawks are capable of achieving. So Kansas doesn't have the need to go all out every minute of this game with its starters. The Jayhawks also must deal with a rust factor. This is just their second game in 13 days. Kansas last played nine days ago and wasn't sharp losing to TCU in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Kansas is a mighty power, but it hasn't defeated an opponent by more than 19 points in its last 22 games. The Jayhawks are 0-5 the past five times laying 13 or more points, which coincides with their not being a strong favorite going 5-12-1 ATS the past 18 times as chalk. Bottom line is the Jayhawks haven't proven worthy of being good in the role of favorite and have no incentive to cover this big of a margin here. | |||||||
03-17-17 | Seton Hall +1 v. Arkansas | 71-77 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
Seton Hall is a sleeper teram and dangerous. Look for the Pirates to prove that here. Unlike last season when Seton Hall peaked in the Big East Conference Tournament knocking off Villanova on its way to capturing the title and then losing in the first round of the NCAA Tournament in a flat performance following that great accomplishment, the Pirates are rested and determined to make it farther in the tournament. The Pirates lost a two-point game to Villanova in the second round of the Big East Tourney this season. Seton Hall now didn't use up all of its energy and focus in the Big East Tourney yet still is playing extremely well. The Pirates had won five in a row until falling by to Villanova. Among those victories were wins against NCAA Tournament teams Xavier, Butler and Marquette. Xavier and Butler each won their opening Big Dance game on Thursday and Marquette plays today. The Pirates also open against Arkansas not Gonzaga like last season. The Razorbacks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games. The last time they covered a spread in a postseason tournament was 2014. Seton Hall held Villanova to 55 points in its Big East Tourney game, which was 22 point below the Wildcats' season average. The Pirates have the necessary ingredients to do well with outstanding guards, experience and 6-foot-10 Angel Delgado in the post. He lead the nation in rebounding and double-doubles. Khadeen Carrington, Madison Jones and Desi Rodriguez are all very good players. | |||||||
03-16-17 | Weber State v. CS-Fullerton +1 | Top | 80-76 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
Falling short in the Big Sky championship this past Saturday was a big deal for Weber State. That 93-89 overtime loss stung the Wildcats especially the seniors. Weber State had captured the Big Sky tournament two of the previous three seasons earning the right to play in the NCAA Tournament each time. Now the Wildcats have a short turnaround to travel and play Cal State Fullerton in a first round Collegeinsider.com Tournament game. It's a huge letdown for the Wildcats. I don't see the motivation here. Not so with Fullerton. The Titans finished third in the Big West and reached the semifinals of the conference tournament where they lost to eventual champion UC Davis, a team that just upset North Carolina Central on Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament. Fullerton finished strong winning eight of its last 10 regular season games. The Titans were the hottest team in the league down the stretch. They are excited about hosting this matchup. The Titans have an excellent player in Tre Coggins and are 12-3 at home. The Titans are athletic and play strong defense. Weber State has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games. This is what Weber State coach Randy Rahe said about the Titans, "... We've got a challenge. We're going to have to play really well to be competitive with them." | |||||||
03-16-17 | Red Wings v. Coyotes -105 | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Arizona is the better team right now, has the superior goalie in Mike Smith and has home ice. Riding a three-game win streak, the Coyotes have a winning record during their past 20 games. Detroit is 6-12-2 in its last 20 games. The Red Wings are 1-5-1 in their last seven games having just lost at Colorado on Wednesday. Smith should be sharp after being rested in the Coyotes' last game two days ago. He is coming off a shutout and made 37 saves when the Coyotes beat Detroit, 4-1, on Dec. 14 when the Red Wings were playing better. The Red Wings have won only 32 percent of their last 56 road contests. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,325 |
Dan Kaiser | $1,247 |
Jesse Schule | $666 |
Mike Lundin | $633 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Jim Feist | $402 |
Marc Lawrence | $400 |
Big Al McMordie | $325 |
AAA Sports | $316 |
Tom Macrina | $290 |