Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-23-17 | Rockets -3 v. Pelicans | 129-99 | Win | 100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Houston has defeated New Orleans six of the past seven times, including burying the Pelicans, 122-100, when the teams last met in mid-December at Houston. A lot is different now. This will be DeMarcus Cousins' debut with New Orleans. He'll team up with Anthony Davis to give the Pelicans an imposing front line. However, it's going to take time for Cousins, Davis and the rest of the Pelicans to adjust. It remains to be seen if Alvin Gentry can make this a good fit. I have my doubts since I don't consider Gentry a good coach. There's going to be a lot of fanfare for this game being Cousins' debut with New Orleans. The Pelicans aren't used to these type of distractions and lack the poise and experience to handle them. The Rockets certainly won't be taking the Pelicans lightly now. Houston made an NBA-record 24 3-points in the earlier victory against New Orleans. The Rockets rank No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 114.4 points and they do it by firing 3-pointers all the time. They should have success shooting their 3's against the Pelicans' Twin Towers new look. The Rockets are a bad matchup for the Pelicans. Houston's offense should be even better after acquiring guard Louis Williams from the Lakers. Williams is having an excellent season and will fit right in with the Rockets. The Rockets have covered 19 of their last 27 Western Conference games. The Pelicans are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when playing on three or more days rest. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Rangers v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
The Maple Leafs rank sixth in scoring. But they don't want to get into an up-and-down track meet against the Rangers. Toronto learned its lesson after losing 5-2 to the Rangers last month. So look for the Maple Leafs to be more defensive-minded, clogging the neutral zone. The Rangers have scored only two goals in each of their last three games. New York, though, has surrendered two or fewer goals in four of its last five games during regulation. Henrik Lundqvist is playing much better in goal. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Rangers -103 v. Maple Leafs | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a bad spot for the Maple Leafs. Toronto hosts long-time rival Montreal on Saturday. So it's a huge look ahead game for the Maple Leafs. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Blazers -2.5 v. Magic | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
Portland is the superior team and should be rejuvenated coming out of the break. The Trail Blazers trailed the Nuggets by two games for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Orlando is a bottom-feeder from the inferior Eastern Conference. The demoralized Magic have lost 17 of their last 22 games and will be missing the postseason for the fifth consecutive season. The Magic rank 29th in scoring and Frank Vogel has not upgraded their defense. The Trail Blazers hold a monster backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Portland upgraded its frontcourt trading for Jusuf Nurkic while the the Magic got worse by dealing away big man Serge Ibaka. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Massachusetts v. George Washington -5 | 67-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
George Washington is an average Atlantic 10 team. But they are the superior team here and can take advantage of the Minutemen's struggling defense that has yielded an average of 81.8 points in the last five games. UMass has lost seven of its last eight games. The Colonials come into the game with a little momentum having defeated Duquesne in their last game, 77-70, on the road. George Washington plays stronger defensive at home surrendering 64.4 points. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Jacksonville State -120 v. Eastern Kentucky | 65-68 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
This is more a fade on Eastern Kentucky than a play on Jacksonville State as the Colonels have lost five in a row. | |||||||
02-22-17 | Fresno State +8.5 v. San Diego State | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Fresno State got hot in mid-February last season ending up capturing the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The buy sign is on the Bulldogs again as they've won and covered their last two games. | |||||||
02-22-17 | Capitals v. Flyers OVER 5 | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Washington has been held to three goals in its last two games - both losses. I don't see the Capitals' No. 2 ranked offense kept in check for a third straight game, especially from the Flyers, who have mediocre goaltenders and rank 25th defensively. Prior to their last two games, the Capitals had averaged five goals a game during their previous six games. Washington has too much star power on offense to be kept down by Philadelphia. The Flyers rank sixth in shots taken and have the ninth-best power play. Brayden Schenn leads the league in power play goals with 14. So the Flyers should be able to contribute their share to the total going over. | |||||||
02-22-17 | Drake +12.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 65-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
Drake is going through growing pains this season. But the Bulldogs did beat Loyola, 102-98, late last month. That was the fifth time they've covered against Loyola in the past six meetings. This has been an underdog series, too, with the 'dog getting the money the past five times. Loyola is 1-5 in its last 6. The Ramblers are off a tough loss to Missouri Valley Conference co-leader Illinois State falling 65-63 this past Sunday. A long shot rimmed out at the buzzer that would have given Loyola the victory. So it' going to be difficult for the Ramblers to get up for this game, let along cover a big number like this in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley. | |||||||
02-22-17 | St. Louis +22 v. VCU | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
VCU is in a huge look ahead spot as its next two games are against the other top two teams in the Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island and Dayton. The Rams matchup versus Dayton likely will decide the Atlantic 10 title. I can easily envision a letdown spot for VCU with the Rams taking their foot off the pedal. VCU is 6-15-1 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The key is can the Billikens hang in? I believe they can. Saint Louis is an above average defensive team. The Billikens should play with a full amount of intensity after a bad loss to Fordham in their last game this past Saturday. Travis Ford has done a nice job coaching Saints Louis and he called out his players for lack of effort and passion following that loss to Fordham. Up until their last two games, Saint Louis had been on a nice point spread run. The Billikens are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 7-1 ATS following a loss and a tough team to cover a large margin against because of their slow pace. | |||||||
02-22-17 | Manhattan +7 v. Rider | 82-93 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rider may not have its full intensity, which is needed to cover this mid-range number, after upsetting Iona on the road this past Sunday as a 9 1/2-point 'dog. Rider had lost four of its previous five games before pulling the upset. | |||||||
02-21-17 | Blackhawks v. Wild -135 | 5-3 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
The Wild have dominated the Blackhawks during the regular season going 8-0-1 against them the past nine times. The spot is ripe for the Wild to do it again. This is Minnesota's final game before its bye week. The Wild is 21-8 in their last 29 home games and 15-4-1 during their past 20 overall games. The Blackhawks just came off their bye. This will be their third game in four days. Chicago wasn't sharp in a 3-1 home loss to the Oilers in its first game back from break. The Blackhawks beat the Sabres, 5-1 on the road, two days ago. This is a step up game for them. The Blackhawks nipped the Wild, 4-3 in overtime, on their most recent visit to Minnesota less than two weeks. The Blackhawks did play well in that game, but their coach, Joel Quenneville, said they'll have to play even better to win this time. Devan Dubnyk could be the best goalie in the NHL right now for Minnesota - and he's hot with a 4-1 mark, 1.78 GAA and .945 save percentage in his last five starts. | |||||||
02-21-17 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
I'm going to ride the Yellow Jackets here. They haven't lost a home game since Jan. 7 and that was versus Louisville. Among their home wins have been conference victories against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame. They have covered nine of their last 11. The teams met in mid-January and Georgia Tech won by 10 on the road. North Carolina State has dropped and failed to cover seven in a row. Mark Gottfried is a lame duck coach having already been fired. The Wolfpack fell behind Notre Dame by 23 points before losing by nine at home in their last game after getting the news about Gottfried. The Wolfpack lost to the Irish despite shooting 51.7 percent from the floor. Georgia Tech has the 16th best defensive field goal percentage in the country. Now the Wolfpack go on the road. They have lost their last three away games by a combined 79 points! | |||||||
02-21-17 | Oilers +109 v. Lightning | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Edmonton has won three in a row. The Oilers' defense could get a boost, too, with the possible return of defenseman Kris Russell. Tampa Bay hasn't played at home in two weeks. The Lightning just edged Colorado in overtime on the road two days ago. Now the Lightning have to adjust to being at home and getting out of Denver's high altitude. The Lightning are 1-8 following a victory and 1-6 on one day's rest. This marks their third game in four days. Tampa Bay is 14-10-1-1 at home. Edmonton, though, owns one of the best road marks at 17-9-3-2. | |||||||
02-21-17 | Cleveland State -143 v. Detroit | 83-91 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Cleveland State destroyed Detroit by 17 points in the first meeting between the teams. The Vikings are in stop-the-pain mode and should win again. They have drawn early sharp action. | |||||||
02-20-17 | Texas +16 v. West Virginia | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
Texas is 0-12 on the road and at neutral sites this season. But we're not talking about a crazy money line play here. The Longhorns just need to stay fairly close, something they mostly do having not lost by more than 15 points during their past 23 games. Some of the Longhorns' road problems can be attributed to starting four underclassmen. But these young players - Jarrett Allen, Andrew Jones and Kerwin Roach to name three - are talented. Allen is a 6-foot-11 freshman who could get taken in the NBA lottery. While the Longhorns don't win on the road, they do cover spreads. Texas is 11-5 ATS the past 16 times as a road underdog. The Longhorns have lost by 10 or less points away from home against Oklahoma (by four), versus Georgia (by two), against Kansas (by two), versus Baylor (by 10), against Iowa State (by nine) and against Kansas State (by three). West Virginia just nipped Texas, 74-72, when the teams met for the first time this season on Jan. 14. The Longhorns have had tremendous point spread success versus West Virginia covering eight of the last nine times. | |||||||
02-20-17 | Ducks v. Coyotes +140 | 2-3 | Win | 140 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
Arizona hasn't been playing that bad recently winning seven of its last 12. The Coyotes have shown some offense, too, scoring three or more goals in 11 of their last 14 games. The Ducks just got past rival Los Angeles, 1-0, at home Sunday. Anaheim has failed to win the past five times when playing without rest. The Ducks have scored only three goals in their last three games and have been held to two or fewer goals in six of their last eight games. | |||||||
02-20-17 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia OVER 118 | 54-48 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Yes, these are two very strong defenses. But this total is just too low, an overcompensation for that. | |||||||
02-19-17 | Bruins v. Sharks -110 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
The Bruins are 3-0 under interim coach Bruce Cassidy, but that is trumped by Boston playing its first game following its bye week. Teams off a bye are 3-14-1 and have yet to win this month. That trumps the Bruins' mini win streak. San Jose was in a slump losing five of seven, but got back on track beating Arizona, 4-1, last night. The Sharks are playing without rest, but were idle on Thursday and Friday. The Sharks have revenge against Boston and are 18-7-3 at home. They are 3-1 in their last four home games versus the Bruins. Boston goalie Tukka Rask has a 4.18 GAA and .833 save percentage in his last four away games. | |||||||
02-19-17 | Syracuse v. Georgia Tech +4 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a huge game for Georgia Tech and the Yellow Jackets are expecting a rare sellout crowd in their efforts to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. The Yellow Jackets have held foes to 36 percent shooting from the floor at home. Georgia Tech has covered eight of its last 10 games and is 4-0 ATS during its past four home games. Syracuse has won just two road games all season - by one point and in overtime. The Orangemen's defense hasn't been nearly as good away from home. They have failed to cover seven of their last nine road matchups. | |||||||
02-19-17 | Blackhawks -120 v. Sabres | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
Look for the Blackhawks to make it six straight road victories. The Blackhawks are the fresher team and have owned Buffalo winning the past 10 meetings. This is just Chicago's second game since Feb. 11. The Blackhawks got the rust off yesterday following their bye week. The Sabres are playing for the third time in four days and also without rest. Scott Darling is expected to be in net for Chicago. I'm fine with that as I consider him one of the best backup goalies in the league. | |||||||
02-19-17 | UNLV +13.5 v. San Diego State | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
San Diego State won't have a sellout for the fourth straight game. The Aztecs' home-court isn't as strong as before. Their coach, Steve Fisher, is good friends with his former assistant and now UNLV coach Marvin Menzies. The Rebels have lost six in a row, but four have been by four points or less. San Diego State is 2-7 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The Aztecs don't have enough offense to cover this number. | |||||||
02-18-17 | Flames v. Canucks +103 | 1-2 | Win | 103 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a crucial game for the Canucks trailing the Flames by five points for the final wild-card spot in the West. Calgary has been fortunate this season going 14-4-3 in one-goal games, tied for the best mark in the NHL in one-goal games. Vancouver has the better goaltending and is strong at home as evidenced by a 17-8-3 mark. The Canucks also are 6-1 in their last seven home games versus foes with a losing road mark. The Flames have struggled in Vancouver losing in 12 of their last 16 visits. Bottom line: Wrong team favored. | |||||||
02-18-17 | Predators v. Wild -143 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 14 m | Show |
Not only are the Wild the best team in the Western Conference, but they are in a ripe spot here. Minnesota catches Nashville coming off its bye week. Teams coming off their bye have yet to win in five games this month being outscored 25-8, including 21-3 through the first two periods. The Predators are 20 points behind the Wild. They are 0-5 the past five times when playing on three or more days rest. Minnesota has won 20 of its last 28 home games. The Wild have won eight of their last 11 games, but a home loss to the Ducks from two games ago to keep them from getting too cocky not to mention a home loss to the Predators on Jan. 22. So a strong Minnesota effort should be forthcoming against the obviously rusty Predators. | |||||||
02-18-17 | Lightning v. Stars -115 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
This is nearly last stand time for Dallas and I see the Stars getting it done at home against a team they swept last season. | |||||||
02-18-17 | Oilers +124 v. Blackhawks | 3-1 | Win | 124 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
It happened again on Friday. Colorado, the worst team in the NHL, upset Carolina after the Hurricanes were playing their first game following their bye. Teams are now 3-9-1 coming back from their league-mandated bye week. This mark includes an 0-5 February record. So the Blackhawks have that working against them as they return from their bye week. Edmonton also has short revenge going. The Oilers lost 5-1 to the Blackhawks at home last Saturday. That was the last time Chicago has played. If you discount that defeat, the Oilers would be 4-0 in their last four games and have held their following five opponents to a combined nine goals. | |||||||
02-18-17 | Florida Atlantic -3 v. Southern Miss | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic has won eight of its last 10 road games and catches Southern Mississippi off an overtime upset victory against Florida International. Prior to that victory, Southern Mississippi had lost six of its last seven games. While the Golden Eagles are a bit fat and happy, the Owls are in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row, including an overtime defeat to Rice. The Golden Eagles are 7-15-1 ATS following a SU win. I see this line as short to back the better team in a good spot. | |||||||
02-17-17 | Fairfield -118 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
The Metro Atlantic Athletic conference takes center stage today in a limited college basketball menu. Fairfield has covered the past six times as road chalk and is such a short favorite that a money line play is warranted because of the low juice. Fairfield has revenge for a 73-71 home loss to Quinipiac 11 days ago when it blew an 11-point lead with seven minutes left. The Staggs were four-point favorites in that contest. It was not one of Fairfield's better performances, but it was more on the Staggs than the Bobcats. That also was Fairfield's only loss during its past six games. The Staggs have won tougher road games than this one. Quinnipiac drew less than 600 fans to its last home game, which was a 31-point loss to St. Peter's. The Staggs are 8-2 ATS versus sub .500 teams. Quinnipiac is 2-5 in its last seven games. I don't see the Bobcats coming away with a sweep. | |||||||
02-17-17 | VCU v. Richmond +5.5 | 84-73 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
This is enough points to get me involved with Richmond in this revenge spot for a loss to VCU at the beginning of the month. The line is inflated because the Spiders are off a 23-point rod loss to George Mason. Prior to that defeat, though, Richmond had covered five in a row while going 4-1. The lone defeat during this span was to VCU. The Rams shot nearly 52 percent from the floor in that game. Now VCU is a good shooting team, but not nearly that good and Richmond is solidly defensively. Only 12 teams have a better 3-point shooting defense than the Spiders. Richmond always has been a good play as a home 'dog going 20-9-1 ATS in that role. | |||||||
02-17-17 | Idaho +5.5 v. Eastern Washington | 67-77 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Idaho did lose its last game. But prior to that the team had gone 7-1 SU and a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Expect the Vandal to bounce back in a revenge spot. They were 5 1/2-point home favorites in the first meeting and now the line is the complete opposite. | |||||||
02-17-17 | Penguins v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
These two teams are separated by just two points in the standings and could possibly meet in an early playoff round. So I'm envisioning a tight-checking, conservative approach especially from Pittsburgh. The Penguins edged the Jets, 4-3, in overtime last night. This is their third game in four days. The under has cashed the past five times Pittsburgh has played without rest. If you discount a 3-0 home loss to Vancouver, the Blue Jackets are giving up an average of two goals per game during their last four games. The under has cashed seven of the last nine times Columbus has played at home. Another key to this under is Matt Murray should be in goal for Pittsburgh after not playing yesterday. Murray has given up only one goal in his last two games. He has a 2.27 GAA compared to Marc-Andre Fleury's 3.16 GAA. I find Murray to be much the better goalie. | |||||||
02-16-17 | Celtics v. Bulls OVER 212 | Top | 103-104 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
The figure is 29 out of the last 30. That's how many times Boston has reached triple digits during its last 30 games. The Celtics have scored a minimum of 107 points in 13 of their last 14 games and are averaging 114.7 points during their past four games. The over is 9-2-1 in Boston's last 12 road games. So I see the Celtics during their part to get this total to go over. But how about the Bulls? Well, their defense had been atrocious up until their last game, a 105-94 home win versus Toronto two days ago. The Bulls had surrendered 100 or more points in nine consecutive games until beating the Raptors, allowing their previous four opponents before Toronto to shoot at least 50 percent from the field. The key to making this over work is Chicago's offense, which ranks 27th in field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point shooting. The over buy sign is there on the Bulls, though, following that Raptors victory. The Bulls played at a faster than usual pace for them resulting in 20 fast-break points. Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg was quite pleased with the up-tempo style particularly how effective it was for bench players Doug McDermott, Cristiano Felicio and Denzel Valentine. So expect the Bulls to play quick again especially trying to take advantage of Boston having to play without rest. This is the last game before the All-Star break, too, so both teams should be holding nothing back. Jimmy Butler is back for Chicago and is slated to play without any minutes restrictions. Dwayne Wade has been ruled out, but Nikola Mirotic is expected to play after missing the last two games. | |||||||
02-16-17 | Stars v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
The over has cashed in 10 of Minnesota's last 12 home games - and this certainly looks like another over. The Wild is the fourth-highest scoring team in the NHL. Yet they are off a 1-0 home loss to the Ducks two days go. The Wild were shut out despite firing 37 shots on goal. Minnesota hasn't gone under the total the past 11 times when scoring two or fewer goals in its previous game. Minnesota certainly isn't going to get shut out against the Stars, who are second-to-last in goals allowed and last in defending against the power play. Dallas has two veteran goalies, Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi, neither of whom has played well this season. Dallas has surrendered at least three goals in 14 of its last 15 games! The Stars' scoring is down from a year ago, but they are still an above average scoring unit with star players, who can take advantage of Minnesota being down defensemen Jonas Brodin and Matt Dumba. | |||||||
02-16-17 | Wisconsin +2.5 v. Michigan | 58-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
The Badgers won't have senior Bronson Koenig when they take on Michigan. But the tradeoff is getting Wisconsin at this number. Koenig, who averages 13.4 points, actually hasn't been that effective since injuring his calf on Jan. 24. The Badgers have the depth and defense - fourth in the nation in scoring defense - to withstand his absence. I consider the Badgers the best team in the Big Ten and they won't lack for motivation following a 66-59 loss to Northwestern this past Sunday that ended their eight-game losing streak. The Badgers have beaten the Wolverines seven of the past eight times, including the last five. | |||||||
02-15-17 | Panthers v. Sharks UNDER 5 | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
The Sharks have been a huge under team at home this season at 18-5-7. I envision a tight defensive game here with both teams being sluggish offensively. Florida is crossing three times zones. The Panthers' offense has picked up lately, but they are a bottom-six scoring team and rank 28th in power play goals. Sharks goalie Martin Jones has turned aside 41 of 44 shots in two career games versus the Panthers and is 3-0-2 since the All-Star break. The Sharks are returning home for the first in 11 days. They just finished a four-game East Coast trip. San Jose has netted two or fewer goals in four of its last five home games while scoring three goals in the other home matchup during this span. | |||||||
02-15-17 | St. John's v. Butler -9 | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
I see this as a kill spot for Butler. The Bulldogs are just 1-3 in their last four games desperate for a confidence-building blowout win and in revenge mode, here, too, for a three-point road upset loss to St. John's in late December. Butler is tough at home. The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 14 home contests and are 8-1-1 ATS following a loss. They had covered four in a row against St. John's until the past meeting. | |||||||
02-15-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Twice these teams have met this season and the Celtics have won by one and four points, respectively. The 76ers have won three in a row. They've covered 19 of their last 26. They are deserving of more respect than this especially considering the situation. The Celtics haven't played at home in 10 days. They just returned from a four-game road trip going 3-1 burying Dallas, 111-98, on Monday night. Boston plays again tomorrow night at Chicago while this is the 76ers' final game going into the All-Star break. So a full effort should be forthcoming from the 76ers while the Celtics, distracted by finally coming back home, may have to hold something back for the Bulls. Boston has been favored by eight or more points eight times this season. Not once have they covered a spread in that role. The Celtics have also failed to cover during their last four home games and are 2-5 ATS following a victory. The 76ers aren't likely to have Joel Embiid, their best player. But Dario Saric and Nerlens Noel have stepped up recently. Saric is averaging 20.8 points and 6.5 rebounds during his last four games. Philadelphia is 8-5 ATS during the last 13 games Embiid has missed. | |||||||
02-15-17 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Kansas State | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Kansas State has dropped five of its last six games with its lone victory during this time frame coming by just two points. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS, too, when laying less than 10 points. Iowa State has dominated this series winning five of the last six times. The Cyclones have proven themselves as 'dogs knocking off Kansas on the road along with away victories against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. When catching three or more points, the Cyclones are 5-0 ATS. Iowa State has been receiving good low-post play from Solomon Young lately. | |||||||
02-14-17 | Kings v. Lakers -127 | 97-96 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
The Lakers last were home on Jan. 31. They won't play at home again until 12 days from now. So this game is a big deal to LA. The Lakers have won their last two home games beating the Pacers by 13 points and Nuggets by four. LA actually has covered seven of its last eight. This includes road victories by 14 against the Knicks and by eight against the Bucks during the past eight days. The Kings are down Rudy Gay and may also be without backup point guard Ty Lawson. | |||||||
02-14-17 | Coyotes v. Oilers -1.5 | 2-5 | Win | 136 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Am taking a plus price with the home Oilers as I see a blowout here fading the Coyotes, who shocked the rusty Flames, 5-0, last night. Arizona has not won three road games in a row all season. The setup is perfect then for an Oilers' lopsided victory with Edmonton opening its homestand with a loss to the Blackhawks three days ago. Even if this game is unexpectedly close, which the oddsmakers do not project with such a huge money line, an empty net goal remains in play. | |||||||
02-14-17 | Dayton v. St. Louis +14 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
OK, let's get this out of the way right away. Dayton has the best defense in the Atlantic 10. Kyle Davis is an outstanding player leading the conference both in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Flyers are an impressive team going 46-12 in their last 58 league games, but I don't see them covering this big of a road number against the improved Billikens. Saint Louis has covered the past six times it has been a 'dog. The team has covered nine of its last 10. The Billikens draw the fourth-highest crowd support in the league. They've won their last four home games and own upset home victories against Duquesne, Massachusetts and George Mason since Jan. 25. Saint Louis nearly defeated Dayton at home last season leading by nine with seven minutes left before falling in overtime. The Billikens were worse last season yet almost beat Dayton losing by three as 13-point 'dogs. The Billikens are improved both defensively and offensively topping 75 points in three of their last four games. The spot is excellent, too, for Saint Louis. The Billikens have their confidence up and catch Dayton off a huge underdog road victory against Rhode Island. | |||||||
02-14-17 | Stars v. Jets OVER 6 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker has set a high total here - for good reason: Bad defense, below average goalies and strong offenses. The Stars aren't as high-scoring as last season, but they do rank 13th in goals. They've scored at least three goals in six of their last eight games and can take advantage of Winnipeg's 28th-ranked defense. The Jets have gone over the total in seven of their last eight games. | |||||||
02-14-17 | Islanders v. Maple Leafs -135 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
The Islanders are playing well and the Maple Leafs haven't been losing six of their last eight games. But I see this as stop-the-pain time for Toronto. The Maple Leafs are trying to avoid a three game sweep to the Islanders. The Maple Leafs have quick revenge for a 6-5 overtime road loss to the Islanders just eight days ago when they blew two leads. Toronto is putting a major emphasis on this matchup. The Islanders have lost 17 of their last 24 road games. | |||||||
02-14-17 | Canucks v. Penguins -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 115 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
I see this as a kill spot for the Penguins. So does the oddsmaker. Rather than lay more than 2-to-1 in juice, I'm playing the Penguins at a plus price on the puck line envisioning a multi-goal Pittsburgh victory. The Penguins won't be taking Vancouver lightly, not after a surprising 4-3 loss to Arizona in their last game this past Saturday. Matt Murray, Pittsburgh's best goalie, should be back in nets here and star center Evgeni Malkin is expected to play after missing the loss to the Coyotes. Malkin is the seventh-leading goal scorer in the NHL despite missing the past seven games with a leg injury. Vancouver is playing well enough to draw the Penguins' attention although the Canucks still have lost five of their last seven games. They are 19-42 in their last 61 road games. The Penguins have won 47 of their past 61 home contests. Ryan Miller is slated to be in net for the Canucks and he's not playing well surrendering 19 goals in his last six games, five of which Vancouver has lost. He has a 3.18 GAA versus the Penguins in 26 career games versus them. It can be risky to ask a team to win by more than one goal. But the Penguins have won six of their last seven by multiple goals. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Celtics v. Mavs OVER 208.5 | 111-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
I have to ride the Celtics and over here. Boston has scored at least 106 points in 13 of its last 14 games. The Celtics have put up 112 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. The over has cashed in nine of Boston's last 11 road games. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Pistons v. Bucks -3 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
OK, the shock of losing Jabari Parker for the season due to a torn ACL has worn off for Milwaukee. This will be the Bucks' third game without their second-best player. Kris Middleton is back now and the Bucks need to have this game trailing the Pistons by two game for the final playoff spot in the East. The buy sign finally is on Milwaukee after the Bucks pasted the Pacers, 116-100, at Indiana this past Saturday. That was a huge confidence and morale boost for the Bucks. The Pacers are one of the better home teams in the league. This also is Middleton's third game back since returning from a torn hamstring that had kept him out the entire season so he should be less rusty. The Pistons just upset the Raptors, 102-101, on Sunday coming from 16 points down in the fourth quarter to pull it off. It's going to be hard for Detroit to retain that intensity for a second consecutive game and fourth game in six days. The Pistons are 3-7 when playing without rest and 5-12 ATS during their past 17 games versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Bucks have done well versus Detroit covering nine of the last 12 meetings, including going 4-1 ATS in Milwaukee. Monday Free Play Magic Plus the Points at Heat I'm going to test a handicapping theory. It's the play-against the hot team that just had their long winning streak snapped. In this case it's fade the Miami Heat. The Heat appeared to have their lottery reservations well in order when they lost 30 of their first 41 games. But a funny thing happened on the way to crying about the glory days of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. The Heat got hot proving you should never count out the underrated coaching of Erik Spoelstra. Miami rattled off an NBA-high 13-game win streak, longest in league history for a sub-.500 team. The historic streak ended this past Saturday when the 76ers took advantage of a flat Miami road performance to beat the Heat, 117-109. Miami committed 20 turnovers and had just 15 assists in the loss. Now the Heat return to South Florida perhaps missing Dion Waiters for a fourth straight game due to a ankle injury. The team's third-leading scorer is questionable. So there very well could be a lingering deflation for the Heat. Waiters would be missed because he's the only other respectable scoring threat besides Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. The catch in going against the Heat in this spot is backing the Magic, losers of 12 of their last 15. This is a sure-fire lottery team, devoid of hope dragging into All-Star break with shot morale and daily trade rumors suggesting a thorough housecleaning. Frank Vogel hasn't fixed Orlando's defense, which ranks 20th and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Magic just surrendered 112 points in a 32-point road loss to the Mavericks this past Saturday. Dallas happens to be the lowest-scoring team in the NBA averaging 98.2 points. Miami is averaging 112.3 points in its last eight games. That would rank third in the NBA if compounded during the entire season. The Heat still have averaged 107.6 points during their last three games minus Waiters. At least the Magic should be highly motivated, right? They off an embarrassing loss in which their effort was questioned and now play their in-state rival. The Magic have the big men with Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic to keep Whiteside from going crazy. The Magic also are 11-6 ATS when catching seven or more points. So let's give the theory a test. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Arkansas State v. Texas State UNDER 129.5 | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
These two teams rank among the top three in the Sun Belt Conference in defensive efficiency. Texas State is adept at controlling tempo when playing at home and the Bobcats are going to play half-court here ranking 344th in tempo. The under has cashed in five of Texas State's past seven home games. That's fine with Arkansas State, which ranks 212th in tempo. The line is set too high in my view because Arkansas State has been shooting well. However, the Red Wolves are taking a step up in defensive competition. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Rangers v. Blue Jackets OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -117 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
The Rangers and Blue Jackets have met three times this season. There have been six, nine and 10 goals during those games with the latest coming in a 6-4 Blue Jackets victory on Jan. 31. The over has cashed seven of the last nine times the Rangers have been on the road. The Rangers are going with backup goalie Antti Raanta in this game. Blue Jackets goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has cooled off not playing as well as before and has a poor history against the Rangers. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Baylor -2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 78-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
If it weren't for beating last place Oklahoma, Texas Tech would be 0-6 in its last six Big 12 Conference games. The Red Raiders did get up in a big way to play Kansas at home this past Saturday losing 80-79 at the wire. I don't see the Red Raiders being able to come back that strong just two days later against sixth-ranked Baylor. The Bears are a school-best 22-3 through 25 games and have one of the top players in the nation, Johnathan Motley. In short turnarounds such as this for both teams, talent usually trumps. Baylor has been a huge money-maker on the road, too, gong 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 away contests. The Bears are 4-2 in conference road games with the losses coming to Kansas and West Virginia, the two teams along with themselves that are vying for the Big 12 title. It's tough to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders are not in the class of Kansas and West Virginia. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Rider v. Fairfield -3.5 | 67-69 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Rider is a poor road team especially when stepping up failing to cover nine of the last 12 times versus home teams that are above .500. | |||||||
02-12-17 | Canadiens v. Bruins OVER 5 | 0-4 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 60 m | Show | |
The Bruins offense has picked up since Bruce Cassidy replaced Claude Julien. That was two games ago and Boston has scored 10 goals in those two games. This hasn't just been happenstance. The Bruins are playing more aggressively offensively while utilizing four lines instead of heavily relying on only two lines as Julien favored. This has led to a faster and more consistent tempo. The over has cashed in Boston's last five home games. Montreal's defense has slipped. So has the play of goalie Carey Price. The Canadiens have allowed at least three goals in all but one of their last six games. Montreal has yielded four goals in each of its last three games. | |||||||
02-12-17 | Oregon State +26 v. UCLA | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
It's hard to make a case for Oregon State except to point out the spot. It's a major letdown situation for UCLA following the Bruins' 82-79 victory against sixth-ranked Oregon on Thursday. Oregon State played the Bruins fairly tight in the first meeting losing 76-63. The Bruins also had just played Oregon before that game. Stephen Thompson Jr., Oregon's second-leading scorer, is from LA and should be pumped. The Beavers have done well from an ATS standpoint in this series covering eight of the last 10. UCLA often is overpriced, which is the case here. The Bruins are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 Pac-12 games and 1-5 ATS the past six times they've been home chalk. | |||||||
02-12-17 | Nevada +4 v. San Diego State | Top | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
These teams met early last month in Reno and Nevada won, 72-69, as two-point favorites. A key to the Wolf Pack's victory was outrebounding the Aztecs by 12 boards. Nevada is the better rebounding team, leads the Mountain West in 3-point defense and outscores San Diego State by an average of 10 points a game. The Wolf Pack have the matchup edges, motivation and history to beat the Aztecs straight-up again. San Diego State still plays outstanding defense. However, the Aztecs have lost some of their home mystique with losses to New Mexico and Colorado State since the calendar turned 2017. The Aztecs are a bad rebounding team - ranking last in the Mountain West in defensive rebounding - and have trouble scoring ranking last in the conference in scoring and free throws attempted per game. The Aztecs rely on defense and 3-point shooting. They rank 284th, though, in 3-point accuracy and Nevada has a strong perimeter defense. The Wolf Pack are in a dogfight with Boise State and Colorado State to win the Mountain West. The big question is can the Wolf Pack win on the road? They had a bad loss to Utah State, falling 74-57 on Feb. 1, in their last road game. Prior to that game, however, the Wolf Pack posted three consecutive road victories defeating New Mexico, Wyoming and Boise State. The wins against Wyoming and Boise State were in blowout fashion. My feeling is Nevada learned from that road loss to Utah State and should produce a high level game here. Nevada has been a huge money-maker in this spread range covering 13 of the last 16 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack also is 18-6-2 ATS the last 26 times facing an above .500 foes. | |||||||
02-12-17 | Red Wings v. Wild -1.5 | 3-6 | Win | 120 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
I really like the Wild in this game, but I can't lay this high juice. So laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line is the best way to attack this matchup as I see Minnesota blowing out a tired Detroit team. Not only are the Wild vastly superior to the Red Wings, but Detroit had to play on Saturday. The Red Wings lost 2-1 to Columbus in an emotional game for them following the death of their long-time team owner. This is a day game, which makes it even more difficult for the Red Wings, playing in their third road game in four days. Minnesota has won 17 of its 24 home games. The Wild have won four of their last five games by two or more goals. The Red Wings have weak goal tending, rank 26th in goals and last in power play goals. | |||||||
02-11-17 | Celtics v. Jazz OVER 205.5 | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
The Jazz are playing their most consistent on offense reaching triple digits in 11 of their last 15 games, including the past five. Boston has reached triple digits in 26 of its last 27 games. The over has cashed in eight of the Celtics' last 10 road games. The teams met early last month and Boston won 115-104 for a combined 219 points. The teams have a history of going over the total when playing in Utah with the over cashing five of the past six times. | |||||||
02-11-17 | North Texas v. Florida International -4.5 | Top | 71-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a stop-the-pain home game for Florida International, losers of four in a row. The timing is ripe for the Golden Panthers to do just that. Florida International catches North Texas fat and happy after the Mean Green posted a 70-64 road upset win against Florida Atlantic this past Thursday. That victory halted an 11-game losing streak for the Mean Green. North Texas, though, is horrible on the road going 5-16-1 ATS during its last 22 away contests and has failed to cover the past five times following a rare victory. North Texas isn't used to winning, far less so on the road. The Golden Panthers won't lack for motivation. They can just remember last year's game when they blew a 12-point lead with around six minutes left in a 77-75 road loss to the Mean Green during their previous meeting. Stephen Nover Saturday Free Pick Northern Illinois plus 4 1/2 at Western Michigan The combination of getting the better team with the superior defense and a bunch of points puts me on Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois is four games above .500 while Western Michigan is 8-15. According to the latest Ken Pomeroy's ratings, Northern Illinois ranks 194th, while Western Michigan is 205th. The Huskies have the 70th stingiest defense in the country giving up 68.2 points per game. That number actually comes down to 65.6 when they are on the road. By contrast, Western Michigan allows 78.6 points a game. The Broncos are off a 72-55 win against Miami of Ohio in their last game this past Tuesday. They have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a victory. Northern Illinois is 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times playing Western Michigan. The Huskies have covered three of their past four road games, all as either an underdog or pick. | |||||||
02-11-17 | Siena v. Marist +6.5 | 84-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Marist isn't very good. We know that. But Sienna can't be trusted as road chalk. The Saints aren't strong enough.The records bear this out. The Saints have failed to cover nine of the past 12 times they've been favored. Sienna also is just 6-15-1 against the spread the past 22 times it has been a road favorite. | |||||||
02-11-17 | Lightning v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay's middle-of-the-pack offense can roll here against the Jets, who rank 27th in goals allowed and have surrendered three or more goals in 14 straight games. Winnipeg, though, is a top-10 scoring team. So it's not that surprising the over is 16-3-1 in the Jets' last 20 games. It doesn't take much to get involved with an over in a Jets game. But if you need more evidence the last three meetings between these teams have all resulted in overs with seven, 11 and 10 goals being scored, respectively. | |||||||
02-11-17 | Fordham +7 v. George Mason | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Fordham is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus George Mason. The Rams can take advantage of George Mason being a poor favorite in this spread range - 1-8 ATS laying from 7 to 12 1/2 points - and coming off a 76-69 upset victory against Davidson this past Wednesday night. The Patriots were 11-point underdogs in that game against Davidson. So it wouldn't be surprising if the Patriots' intensity was down a notch here. | |||||||
02-11-17 | Red Wings +175 v. Blue Jackets | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
The Red Wings not only have short revenge for a 3-2 overtime loss to the Blue Jackets this past Tuesday, but they should play hard in memory of their longtime and beloved owner, Mike Ilitch, who died on Friday. The Red Wings get back Niklas Kronwall and Jeff Blashill. Goalie Jimmy Howard is back, too. Columbus is just 8-10 following their epic 16-game win streak. Sergei Bobrovsky isn't play well in goal and the Blue Jackets looked terrible in losing 3-0 at home to Vancouver in their last game. | |||||||
02-11-17 | Islanders v. Senators UNDER 5.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
First off, this is a day game meaning an early start. That's a plus for the under as it could mean sluggish offenses. Then there are some interesting sub plots that also favor the total going under. This game could mark the return of Ottawa goalie Craig Anderson. He's the Senators' No. 1 goaltender. He's been out for more than two months to be with his wife who is battling cancer. Anderson is expected to play. Before taking a leave of absence, he had a 12-6-1 record with a 2.46 GAA and .924 save percentage. His presence would provide an emotional lift for the Senators. Islands goalie Thomas Greiss is having a surprisingly strong season. He's giving up 2.3 goals in his last 15 starts. The Senators have scored just three goals in their last three games going 0-for-7 in power play opportunities during this span. The under has cashed in seven of the last nine games between the two teams. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Hawks -125 v. Kings | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
Not only does Atlanta hold a class difference here, but the Hawks match up well to the Kings. That's continually proven with the Hawks covering 14 of the last 17 in the series, including winning 106-95 in the team's first meeting this season. Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven visits to Sacramento. The Hawks are playing well winning 16 of their last 22. They have covered 10 of their last 14 on the road. Atlanta holds a backcourt edge with Dennis Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr., both of whom are playing at high levels. The Kings' backcourt may be down Ty Lawson, who suffered a leg injury in the Kings' 108-92 win against the Celtics this past Wednesday. The Kings' major weapon - and only consistent one with Rudy Gay out for the season - is big man DeMarcus Cousins. Dwight Howard can neutralize Cousins, though. Howard had 18 points, 11 rebounds and four blocked shots when the Hawks won the earlier meeting by 11 points. Howard limited Cousins to just 14 points in that game. The Kings always have maturity questions. They could be in a major letdown mood after their impressive 16-point victory versus Boston. The Kings achieved that win without Cousins, who was suspended for that game. Sacramento is 1-6-1 ATS following a victory. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Blackhawks v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
This figures to be a high-scoring game between two top-11 offenses. The Jets give up the fourth-most goals in the league, though. Their defense has been particularly vulnerable lately as the Jets have surrendered three or more goals in 13 consecutive games, including 12 goals allowed during their past three games. The Blackhawks have scored at least three goals in four of their past five games. The over has cashed in six of Chicago's last seven games. The over has cashed an overwhelming 92 percent during the Jets' past 13 games. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Blackhawks v. Jets +100 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Winnipeg should be up for this matchup after two straight losses, including an embarrassing road defeat to lowly Colorado. Prior to those losses, though, the Jets had won three in a row, including defeating the Blackhawks, 5-3, in Chicago on Jan. 26. The Jets need this home victory trailing a wild-card playoff spot by five points. Chicago just snapped an eight-game regular season losing streak against first-place Minnesota on the road in overtime two days ago. The Blackhawks could be a little fat and happy from that victory. Chicago plays at Edmonton on Saturday. The Jets play Chicago with a great deal of confidence as well they should having defeated the Blackhawks in all four meetings this season. Connor Hellebuyck has been in goal for all four of those victories and should be in goal again. Hellebuyck is a mediocre goalie, but he plays Chicago tough having held the Blackhawks to one goal of fewer three times this season. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 211.5 | 122-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves still aren't playing good defense. They've allowed triple digits during their past 12 games. Minnesota gave up 117 points to the Pelicans in the first meeting between the two teams this season. The Pelicans rank 23rd defensively. They just yielded 127 points to the offensively-challenge Jazz. The over has cashed the last five times the teams have met. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 216 | 122-107 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Do not expect a repeat of the Grizzlies 128-119 overtime victory against the Warriors from Jan. 6. The Warriors blew a huge lead in that game and have had this matchup circled ever since. Golden State can play defense ranking No. 1 in 3-point defense and No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. Memphis allows only 99.1 points per game. Just two teams give up fewer points per game. This is the Grizzlies' third straight home game. They are playing outstanding defense during this homestand holding the Spurs to 74 points and the Suns to 91 points. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Harvard -5 v. Brown | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
The last time Brown defeated Harvard was 2009. The Bears have dropped 14 in a row to the Crimson. I'm going to ride that streak agreeing with the early money movement on Harvard. The Crimson is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Ivy League games and 12-3-2 ATS during their past 17 games. Brown has yet to find consistency dropping six of its last eight. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Dayton v. Rhode Island -3.5 | 75-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rhode Island has been playing excellent defense in winning its last four games. Not only is this a revenge game for the Rams, who lost 67-64 at Dayton, but it's crucial for their Atlantic 10 chances and possible NCAA Tourney berth. The Rams have held four of their last five opponents to below 1.00 in points per possession with the national average being 1.05. The Rams rank in the top 15 in 3-point defense and in the top 60 in percentage of blocked shots and steals. Dayton had a struggle on Tuesday before dispatching St. Joe's. The Flyers have already lost road games to UMass and VCU. Rhode Island is 11-1 at home and is 3-0-1 ATS the past four times hosting Dayton. | |||||||
02-09-17 | Celtics +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
Every NBA team is going to encounter a flat spot during the course of such a long season. It happened to the Celtics last night. They lost to the Kings, 108-92, despite Sacramento not having suspended DeMarcus Cousins. The Celtics committed 18 turnovers, shot 39.7 percent from the floor and only had four fast-break points. Prior to that game, though, Boston had won seven straight games. The Celtics had reached triple-digits in 25 consecutive games. I see Boston bouncing back strong in this matchup. Fatigue shouldn't factor since Boston last played on Sunday before losing to the Kings. The Celtics also have won five consecutive times when playing without rest, covering four of the five. The Celtics should be use to West Coast time now. If they need extra motivation, the Celtics can point to Jan. 21. The Trail Blazers defeated the Celtics, 127-123 in overtime, on that date in Boston despite finishing their own four-game, six-day road trip back then. The Trail Blazers are off a last-second one-point road victory against the Mavericks two days ago. That was a costly victory for Portland as it lost swingman and key reserve Evan Turner to a broken hand. The Trail Blazers don't have a strong bench, nor good big men to take advantage of Boston's rebounding weakness. Portland is 7-18-1 ATS following a victory. The Celtics have covered 70 percent of their last 18 road contests. | |||||||
02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs OVER 193.5 | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Given the current form of these two teams, the total is too low. The Jazz are averaging 114 ponts during their last four games. They are off their two highest scoring games of the season. | |||||||
02-09-17 | Canucks v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Columbus is home for only the second time in its last eight games. The Blue Jackets give up the fifth-fewest goals in the league, but fiery coach John Tortorella hasn't been pleased with his team's defense lately. The Blue Jackets are looking to tighten up their defense and they've found the right opponent. Vancouver ranks third-from-the-bottom in the NHL in scoring, shots on goal and power play goals. The Canucks have been held to two goals or fewer in nine of their last 12 games. Both teams have issues with their power play. Columbus has scored in just two of its last 19 power play opportunities while Vancouver's power play unit will be without injured forward Sven Baertschi. He's the Canucks' fourth leading scorer and key guy on their power play. The Blue Jackets have a strong under tendency when facing Western Conference opponents with the under standing 17-5-1 the past 23 times. The under also has cashed seven of the last eight times the two teams have met in Columbus. | |||||||
02-09-17 | North Texas +7 v. Florida Atlantic | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic is in a letdown spot as mid-size home chalk after upsetting Old Dominion this past Saturday as an 11-point road 'dog. Florida Atlantic isn't strong enough to cover this number if not playing well. North Texas is looking for its first Conference USA win and will be loose. The Owls are 1-7 ATS when laying between 7 and 12 1/2 points. | |||||||
02-09-17 | Belmont -4.5 v. Jacksonville State | 66-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Belmont has too much offense for Jacksonville State and is a far better free throw shooting team. The teams met on Jan. 19 and Belmont won easily, 77-60. Belmont has covered its last five road games and is 18-6 ATS versus opponents that have a winning home mark. Jacksonville State has been a money-burner at home failing to cover in eight of its last nine home contests. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Stanford v. Arizona -13.5 | 67-74 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
I see a blowout here. Arizona has dominated Stanford winning and covering during the past five meetings while winning the last 14 in the series. This includes the Wildcats burying the Cardinal, 91-52, earlier this season. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Raptors -3 v. Wolves | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
DeMar DeRozan is back and so are the Raptors. Toronto has won two in a row and is looking to reclaim the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. DeRozan had missed seven of eight games with an ankle injury, but returned on Monday in the Raptors' last game and scored 31 points in a 118-109 home win versus the Clippers. Minnesota has dropped four in a row. The Timberwolves have surrendered an average of 115.8 points during their losing streak, most in the league during this span. The team is in a funk after finding that promising guard Zach LaVine is out for the season with a torn ACL in his knee. The Raptors can take advantage of Minnesota's lack of depth. Minnesota shot 51.1 percent from the floor when the teams last met on Dec. 8 in Toronto. The Raptors still won, 124-110. That was the ninth time in the last 11 meetings the Raptors have covered versus the Timberwolves, who have failed to also cover in five of their last six games at Target Center. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Suns v. Grizzlies OVER 210 | 91-110 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Phoenix is the 11th-highest scoring team in the NBA, but allows the second-most points per game at 112.6. Memphis has picked up its scoring. The Grizzlies have scored at least 101 points in 11 of their last 13 games. Part of their offensive transformation comes from Marc Gasol enjoying his finest all-around offensive season. The Suns have scored 105 or more points in nine of their last 10 games. Eric Booker is having a monster season for them. However, the Suns have also surrendered at least 111 points in seven of their last eight games. Note, too, that the over has cashed seven of the past eight times the teams have played in Memphis. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Suns +10 v. Grizzlies | 91-110 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies have a history of playing to the level of their competition and are in a prime flat spot. Memphis just defeated San Antonio, 89-74, at home on Monday and hosts Golden State on Friday. So the Grizzlies can be excused if they overlook the Suns. Phoenix averages 106.6 points a game, 11th-best in the NBA. The Suns shouldn't lack motivation with revenge for a 19-point home loss suffered to the Grizzlies on Jan. 30 and have covered four of their last five road games. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Blackhawks v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
I can point out that Minnesota is the No. 3 scoring team in the league while Chicago is 11th in goals scored. But to be honest, I'm just going to ride the Wild's amazing over the total run especially when the total is less than six. Minnesota is 17-3-1 to the over in its last 21 games. The over has cashed in Minnesota's past five games and is 9-1-1 during the Wild's past 11 home games. The Blackhawks have only gone under the total twice in their last 11 road contests. The over also is 3-0-1 the past four times the teams have met in Minnesota. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Wizards v. Nets +10 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Granted Brooklyn is terrible losers of 21 of its last 22 games. But this is a rich spot for the Nets and they're collecting a boatload of points. Brooklyn has covered four of the last five times when getting nine or more points. The Nets usually can be counted on to provide a good effort. They rank 16th in scoring, play hard and are a better free throw shooting team than Washington. They have ample motivation opening a four-game homestand looking to halt a 10-game losing streak. The Nets also have double-revenge incentive for two December losses. They were blown out at Verizon Center, but only lost 118-113 at home to the Wizards. Washington could have trouble getting up for this game. The Wizards' energy may be at low ebb, too, coming off a 140-135 home overtime loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday night. That was the Wizards' biggest game of the season and ended their seven-game win streak. I still question the Wizards' maturity level especially after Bradley Beal started dancing in overtime with the Wizards leading Cleveland by two points. Washington is 0-4 ATS the past four times playing a foe with a losing home record. The Wizards are back home Friday to host the Pacers. It's going to be difficult for the Wizards to care much about this game. The Nets lost 111-107 to the Hornets in Charlotte last night. Only one Nets player logged more than 29 minutes, though. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Rutgers v. Ohio State -10.5 | 64-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
There's a major class difference here as Ohio State is coming on and catches Rutgers coming off a huge 70-68 road win against Penn State this past Saturday. That was Rutgers' first road win in 24 Big Ten games. Ohio State is 3-0 versus Rutgers since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten. The Buckeyes buried Rutgers, 94-68, at home last season. Rutgers is improved, but not to the point where it can stay within double-digits of the Buckeyes in Columbus. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Baylor +2.5 v. Oklahoma State | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Baylor has lost two in a row. But Oklahoma State being favored against the Bears is an overreaction. The Bears were contending to be top-ranked last week before losing games to Kansas State and Kansas. Now the Bears are in stop-the-pain mode. No Big 12 team plays better defense than Baylor, which gives up the fewest points per game and is No. 1, too, in defensive field goal percentage. Baylor also ranks No. 1 in RPI. I see Baylor, which defeated Oklahoma State earlier this season, trumping the Cowboys this time around with its superior defense. | |||||||
02-07-17 | San Diego State -6.5 v. San Jose State | 71-76 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
San Jose State is much improved. But I don't see the Spartans winning a season-high third consecutive game. San Diego State has won five of seven since opening 0-3 in the Mountain West. Its two losses were by a combined four points. The Aztecs have a plus 34 scoring margin. The buy sign is on them here with San Jose State in a letdown spot and the Aztecs expected to have Zylan Cheatham, Malik Pope and Max Hoetzel all playing. San Diego State beat San Jose State, 76-61, on Jan. 10. The Aztecs are a level higher than the Spartans, good enough to win by double-digits again especially with a full lineup. The Spartans are off a huge 78-68 road win against New Mexico this past Saturday. They were 10 1/2-point 'dogs in that game. That was their first victory ever against the Lobos in 14 tries. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Iowa State v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing the letdown card strong fading Iowa State off its monster double-digit upset road overtime win against second-ranked Kansas this past Saturday. The Cyclones pulled the upset by coming from 15 points down in ending the Jayhawks' 51-game home win streak while likely securing their place in the Big Dance with that victory. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS following a spread cover and has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games in Austin. Texas has the talent to beat Iowa State. The youthful Longhorns have begun to play better going 2-2 following five straight losses. Freshman big man Jarrett Allen has come on to average 16 points and 10.5 rebounds during his last 10 games. The Longhorns are tough at home - owning Big 12 victories against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech not to mention losing by only two to then ninth-ranked West Virginia - and have also covered seven of the last eight times as underdogs. Texas has also covered 71 percent of its last 24 Big 12 games. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Michigan State +5 v. Michigan | 57-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Michigan State just beat Michigan, 70-62, on Jan. 29. Now the Wolverines are favored by this much? I'm not buying it. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Blazers -125 v. Mavs | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Dallas is in a tough spot. The Mavericks just played in Denver's high altitude last night and lost by 23 points. Wesley Matthews limped off the floor in that game so he might not play today. The Mavericks have won only once in 10 tries when playing without rest this season. Portland is in short revenge having lost 108-104 to the Mavericks at home this past Friday. All-Star Damian Lillard was outplayed in that game by unheralded Yogi Ferrell. That's not going to happen again. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Wild v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
It's difficult to not think at least six goals will be scored here. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Blue Jackets -117 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Columbus hasn't lost three games in a row all season and I don't see it happening here. Since winning 16 consecutive games, the Blue Jackets have gone 6-8-1 and were flat returning home from a five-game losing streak losing 5-1 to the Devils this past Saturday. Now the Blue Jackets have been idle the past two days and in stop-the-pain mode. Columbus has won five of the last six times following a loss and are 15-3 going back to last season when having two or more days off following their previous game. The Blue Jackets have the No. 1 power play in the league and can take advantage of Detroit's weak goaltending. The Red Wings are off one-goal victories against the Islanders at home and Predators on the road. The Red Wings were outshot by a combined 35 shots in those two victories. Detroit is down two key players, too, with defenseman Niklas Kronwall and forward Frans Nielsen each out with injuries. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Flames v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -127 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
Johnny Gaudreau has picked up his play lately and the Flames have scored 15 goals in their last four games. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Alabama v. South Carolina -7 | 90-86 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
South Carolina has won four in a row. The Gamecocks rank No. 1 defensively in the SEC. They can easily keep Alabama in check. The Crimson Tide rank ninth in the league offensively. Alabama is reeling from a bad loss to in-state rival Auburn. The Tide has failed to cover in 12 of its last 17 SEC games. | |||||||
02-06-17 | Spurs -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 74-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
San Antonio has defeated Memphis nine straight times, covering seven of the nine. I expect the Spurs to continue their dominance again in this matchup. The Spurs have won 20 of their 25 road games. This is the opener of an eight-game road swing for them. The Spurs have won nine of their last 11 and rank with the Warriors and Cavaliers as one of the three best teams in the NBA. San Antonio gives up fewer points per game than the Grizzlies and outscores them by seven points a game. Memphis ranks last in shooting percentage, while San Antonio is second in shooting percentage and has the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. Memphis is playing at home for the first time after going 4-2 in its six-game road trip that ended with a 107-99 victory against the Timberwolves Saturday night. The first game back from being gone so long is not a plus for the home Grizzlies, who could be a bit fat and happy after rallying from 19 points down to defeat Minnesota. The Grizzlies have failed to cover five of the last seven times following a victory. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when taking on an above .500 opponent. Monday Free Play Cavaliers at Wizards Under 220 Not only is this the Wizards' most important game of the season, but it's their biggest home game in years. Packed crowd. Nationally televised. Amped up 100 percent to play the defending world champion Cavaliers. Yes, I could envision the Wizards being tight under the pressure and spotlight. Things they're not normally accustomed to. But I'm not going to fade the Wizards at home where they have won 17 in a row. Instead I'm going under the total. Sure there's star power in this matchup headed by LeBron James and John Wall, having his finest season. That's why the total is high. Lost among the glitter, though, is the solid defense both Cleveland and Washington have been playing. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to an average of 96 points. The Cavaliers have permitted an average of 99 points in their past four games. The teams met back in Washington on Nov. 11 in their lone matchup this season. The Cavaliers won, 105-94, for a total of 199 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 29 points. Irving is questionable having missed the Cavaliers' previous game because of a sore quad. | |||||||
02-06-17 | Heat v. Wolves OVER 205 | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
The Heat have ramped up their offense. They have reached triple digits in each of their last eight games. Miami has scored 116 points or more in three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage. | |||||||
02-06-17 | Sabres v. Devils -117 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Since opening 7-0-2 at home, the Devils have dropped seven consecutive games in New Jersey. I see the Devils ended their home game losing skid here, though. The Devils need to make their move now if they're going to get into the playoffs. This is the first of five consecutive games for New Jersey. The Devils are placing tremendous emphasis on this matchup. They don't play again until Sunday. So nothing is going to be held back. New Jersey has its perfect patsy in place to accomplish that - Buffalo. The Sabres have lost six of their last eight road contests. They are 1-7 in their past eight meetings versus the Devils going 1-5 in New Jersey. The Devils are 2-0 against the Sabres this season winning 2-1 on the road and 4-2 at home. The Devils need Taylor Hall to step up. Hall broke out of his scoring slump with two goals in the Devils' last game, an impressive 5-1 road win against the Blue Jackets this past Saturday. | |||||||
02-06-17 | Sabres v. Devils OVER 5 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
The Sabres have scored three or more goals in seven of their last nine games. The over is 7-0-1 in Buffalo's past eight road contests. | |||||||
02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 59.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -115 | 306 h 10 m | Show |
It's easy to think shootout with these two teams quarterbacked by Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. The oddsmaker certainly thinks so posting the highest Super Bowl total ever. Atlanta has a record-setting offense. Brady had another epic season. But a lot has to go right for a total to go above this number. These offenses are actually so precise that it's a factor for the under. Let me explain that. Neither team turns the ball over. They each had 11 giveaways during the season, tying for the lowest mark. The Falcons have had only one turnover in their last six games. So this should be a clean game meaning no short drives based on great field position off a turnover, or a fluke defensive touchdown. The Patriots have a bend-but-don't-break style of a well-crafted defense. They led the NFL in fewest points allowed at 15.6 per game. Yes, the Patriots played easy offensive opponents and weak quarterbacks in most of their games. But surrendering fewer than 16 points a game for an entire season still is impressive. New England has a very strong secondary. Malcolm Butler and Devin McCourty are elite players. There probably isn't a more well-coached defense than the Patriots. Having two weeks to prepare is huge, too, for the Patriots. Only three opponents have scored 30 plus points in 33 playoff games against Belichick. In 18 of those 33 games, playoff foes scored 20 points or less. The Falcons offense is too diversified and playing at too high of a level to hold completely down. But they are not in Georgia Dome, could accumulate some rust with the layoff and won't be able to make many long gains against a New England defense geared to prevent big plays. It's going to take long patient drives for the Falcons - featuring a balanced attack - for them to get points. Any drive resulting in a field goal instead of a touchdown is a win for the under with a total this high. Atlanta's defense has improved as the season progressed so its overall statistics are skewed. The Falcons have held five of their last six opponents to 21 or fewer points. Dan Quinn has transformed the Falcons from a finesse defense weak in the trenches into an aggressive, hard-hitting unit that found the right blitzing lanes against Aaron Rodgers in the NFC title game. Vic Beasley Jr. led the NFL in sacks. The Patriots also are without their No. 1 receiving weapon, Rob Gronkowski. The way to beat Atlanta is ball-control with a lot of power running. The Patriots can do that with LeGarrette Blount mixed up with Brady moving the chains with short passes. That's an effective attack. It's also time consuming. It's asking a lot for a touchdown to result after each long drive. That's what needs to happen, though, when you have an over/under in this record range. I don't see it occurring frequently enough. Under is the way to go. Prop Bet Recommendations: I find this Super Bowl harder than most for individual player props, which I normally like to specialize in, because these offenses spread things around so much. Any fantasy football player can tell you how difficult it is to project what Patriots will do well on any given week because their game plans can either go run heavy with LeGarrette Blount, or pass happy with a different receiver featured. I do think the Patriots will try to get Dion Lewis free in space against Atlanta linebackers so I would look to bet Lewis Over 2 receptions. My top prop, though, is laying around $1.75 on NO there will not be a special teams, or defensive touchdown. Neither team has a dangerous kick returner and both teams tied for the fewest giveaways during the regular season with just 11. Atlanta has turned the ball over once in its last six games. Brady doesn't throw interceptions unless he's heavily pressured and Atlanta lacks a great pass rush.
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02-05-17 | Colorado +7 v. California | 66-77 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
A tough schedule and tough luck made things rough in the early going for Colorado. The Buffaloes started 0-7 in the Pac-12. But four of those losses came by three or fewer points. Now things are turning around for the Buffaloes, winners of three in a row and getting outstanding play from senior guard Derrick White. The Buffaloes are catching an inflated spread here and worth taking. Cal has covered just one of its last six games while going 5-10 ATS at home this season. | |||||||
02-04-17 | UC-Irvine -3 v. Long Beach State | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Cal Irvine is the superior team and is in stop-the-pain mode after losing two in a row. The Anteaters had won eight in a row before their losing streak. Long Beach State is 4-4 in the Big West Conference, two games behind Cal Irvine and UC Davis for the lead. But the 49ers are overmatched here. They are 7-15 ATS, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when going against an above .500 foe. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 224.5 | 106-109 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
The Warriors are averaging 125 points during their last five games. Stephen Curry has been on fire and Draymond Green has been cleared to play. The Kings rank among the bottom 10 in defense. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Wild v. Canucks OVER 5 | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Minnesota is averaging 3.9 goals in its last 11 games. The Wild have gone consistently over, too, during their last 23 games posting a 17-3-3 mark to the over. Only three of those games had less than five goals scored in them. So I think this total is short. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Portland v. BYU -19.5 | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Portland was bad even before losing star player and leading scorer Alex Wintering for the season with a knee injury. But the Pilots have really fallen apart. They have become a near auto-fade. They are in the throngs of a nine-game losing streak going 2-7-1 ATS. Portland's last two losses have each come at home by 15 to Santa Clara and 16 to San Diego. BYU is a kill mood after losing to Gonzaga in its last game. The Cougars are 11-3-1 ATS following a loss. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Penguins v. Blues UNDER 6 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
The Blues are really stressing defense following the coaching change from Ken Hitchcock to Mike Yeo. That was evident in the Blues' first game under Yeo when they held the Maple Leafs to just one goal in their last game. The Penguins have gotten healthy on defense. They've surrendered two or fewer goals in four of their last seven games. The two teams just met on Jan. 24 in Pittsburgh and the Blues won, 3-0, behind goalie Carter Hutton, who could get the call today. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $863 |
Tom Macrina | $596 |
Joey Tron | $477 |
Ricky Tran | $440 |
William Burns | $268 |
Joseph D'Amico | $254 |
Ross Benjamin | $140 |
Big Al McMordie | $134 |
Jesse Schule | $116 |
Dan Kaiser | $74 |