Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-30-23 | Brewers -109 v. Cubs | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The Cubs snapped the Brewers' season-high nine-game win streak, 1-0, last night. Justin Steele outdueled Corbin Burnes in a great pitching matchup. But the Brewers were victimized more than the Cubs by 20 mph winds blowing in. This time there will be just a slight wind blowing out. So weather shouldn't play a part. Given a level playing condition, I like the Brewers to return to their winning ways in a matchup of righthanders Brandon Woodruff versus Kyle Hendricks. Woodruff is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA. Woodruff is a stud pitcher when healthy - and he's back healthy. He's allowed more than two earned runs only once in six starts. Woodruff struck out 11 Padres batters in his last start this past Friday, a 7-3 Milwaukee victory. Backing up Woodruff is a rested Devin Williams, an elite closer. Hendricks is an average starter, nothing special. He's pitched worse at home where he's 2-4 with a 4.84 ERA. The Brewers have done far better against righties than southpaws. Milwaukee is 57-37 versus righthanders this season. | |||||||
08-29-23 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 7 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
Stay away from Brewer and Cub hitters in daily fantasy today. Not only are two ace pitchers going - Corbin Burnes and Justin Steele - but the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field at 18-to-20 mph. | |||||||
08-29-23 | White Sox v. Orioles -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
The White Sox are garbage. They are 28 games below .500 because they rank 25th in runs, 26th in ERA and have a dreadful bullpen. Baltimore is the opposite. The Orioles are an American League-best 82-49. They have been the most profitable team for bettors. One reason for this is a below-the-radar pitcher named Dean Kremer. His 4.31 ERA may look unimposing, but Baltimore is 12-3 in his home starts this season. Kremer has made three starts this month at Camden Yards. He's 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in those outings. The Orioles crushed the listless White Sox, 9-0, on Monday. That was Baltimore's eighth win in its last 10 games. The Orioles can't afford a letdown with just a 2 1/2-game lead on the Rays in the AL East Division. The White Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games. They've lost by more than one run during each of their past seven defeats. During this span, the White Sox's average loss is by 7.7 runs. I don't see the White Sox getting turned around against this opponent with rookie Jesse Scholtens on the mound. He's 1-6 with a 4.15 ERA. Scholtens is 0-2 with a 7.80 ERA in his last three starts. The White Sox's bullpen, which lacks a legitimate closer, has the fifth-highest ERA in baseball. So I see another kill spot for the Orioles setting up this run line winner. | |||||||
08-29-23 | Mercury v. Dream UNDER 160.5 | 76-94 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 5 m | Show | |
Phoenix is averaging 68.6 points in its last five games, all of which have gone Under. I see another Under here. The Mercury has a cluster injury problem in the backcourt. Diana Taurasi and Sophie Cunningham, the team's second and third-leading scorers, are each questionable. Taurasi has missed the last two games with a toe injury. Cunningham suffered a jaw injury in Phoenix's last game two days ago. The Mercury are 1-15 on the road. They have already been eliminated from the playoffs. So there's no urgency for Taurasi and Cunningham to play. Also the Mercury are without Shey Peddy, a guard who was part of their rotation. Phoenix does have 6-foot-9 inch Brittney Griner back in the lineup. Although Griner is the Mercury's leading scorer, her presence is a plus for the Under because Phoenix has to play at a slow, plodding pace to accommodate her low-post presence. Atlanta should be in a defensive mood. The Dream have lost three in a row, including blowing a late lead in an 83-80 loss to lowly Indiana this past Sunday. This marks the Dream's third game in five days so I don't see them playing up-tempo. | |||||||
08-29-23 | Rays +106 v. Marlins | 11-2 | Win | 106 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
I don't get the love for Miami here. The Marlins are 3-8 in their last 11 games. They are one game above .500. Tampa Bay is 80-52 and has won eight of its last 10 games. | |||||||
08-28-23 | Astros +111 v. Red Sox | Top | 13-5 | Win | 111 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
The Astros have scored 26 runs in their last two games. Those games were at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Now Houston gets to play at Fenway Park, one of the best hitter's parks, against a lefty starter. The Astros are 25-15 versus southpaws this season for 63 percent. The pitching matchup is Christian Javier versus lefty Chris Sale. Houston ranks second in slugging percentage and OPS against southpaw pitching. The Astros are fourth against lefties in batting average and OBP. Sale has struggled since coming off the injured list. This will be his fourth start since then. He's 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in this span. He's averaged fewer than five innings. The last time Sale went more than five innings was way back on May 20. Boston's bullpen is below average ranking 18th in ERA. Javier moved his record to 9-2 when he beat Boston, 9-4, as a minus $1.20 home favorite last Monday. Now the Astros are underdogs. Doesn't make sense to me. Sale has yet to show he's regained any semblance of his one-time dominant pitching form. The Astros have the stronger bullpen and could catch the Red Sox minus their best power hitter, Rafael Devers. He leads Boston in homers and RBI's. Devers missed Sunday's loss to the Dodgers after getting hit in the wrist during Saturday's game. | |||||||
08-28-23 | Aces v. Liberty -115 | 85-94 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
A strong case can be made either way that Las Vegas or New York is the best team in the WNBA. No other team in the league comes close to matching these superpowers. The teams have split their four games. This is the final regular-season matchup between them and the deck is stacked against Las Vegas. The Aces are a tired team playing for the fourth time in seven days and 11th in 22 days. It's the Aces' fourth consecutive road games. This is a very heavy schedule especially for the WNBA. It's made worse for the Aces because they lack depth and have been going with a short rotation due to starter Candace Parker being out. Las Vegas hasn't practiced, nor even taken a shootaround during its previous two games in order to save its legs. A blowout loss to Washington as a 10-point favorite two days ago shows just how vulnerable the Aces are right now because of the heavy fatigue factor. It's the wrong time for the Aces to meet the Liberty, who are peaking winning 18 of their last 21 games. | |||||||
08-28-23 | Yankees +104 v. Tigers | 4-1 | Win | 104 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
As bad as the Yankees are, they still are better than Detroit. The Yankees should be fired-up after a highly contentious series against the Rays. The Tigers don't get ripped on like the Yankees because no one expects anything from them. Detroit has lived up to form again this season with a 59-71 record. That's three games worse than the Yankees. Detroit just lost its last two games by a combined 20 runs to the Astros. The pitching matchup is Luis Severino versus Reese Olson. Miserable is too nice of a word to describe how Severino's pitched after returning from a lat muscle injury. It's been hideous - up to his last start. Severino held the Nationals to one hit and two walks in 6 2/3 scoreless innings to pick up a victory last Wednesday. So there's hope. Severino has a strong history versus Detroit with a 4-1 career mark and 2.11 ERA in seven starts. Olson is 2-5 with a 5.29 ERA, which jumps up to a 6.75 ERA if you go by his last three starts. | |||||||
08-27-23 | Ottawa v. Edmonton Elks | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
Edmonton is the worst team in the Canadian Football League and has lost 22 straight home games. But I'm counting on the Elks to put an end to those two horrible marks. Edmonton is riding momentum for the first time this season following a 24-10 road upset victory against Hamilton last week. That road upset win looks even more impressive after Hamilton upset BC - the third-best team in the CFL - as a 12-point road underdog Saturday night. The Elks finally appear to have a decent QB in dual-threat Tre Ford. He threw for 174 yards and two TD's while rushing for 60 yards on five carries in Edmonton's win against Hamilton. The Elks are averaging 26.5 points in their last two games versus Hamilton and Winnipeg, which has the most victories in the CFL this season and gives up the second-fewest points, with offensive coordinator Jarious Jackson taking over the play-calling for Edmonton. Edmonton gets to go against an Ottawa defense that gives up the most passing yards and third-most overall yards. The Redblacks are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS in their last four games. So the arrow finally is pointing up for an Edmonton home victory. | |||||||
08-27-23 | Padres -115 v. Brewers | 6-10 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Brewers for winning seven in a row and building a four-game lead in the NL Central Division. Milwaukee has a right to feel a little fat and happy. I don't see the Brewers winning this game, though, facing one of the more below-the-radar pitchers in the majors. San Diego starter Michael Wacha is 10-2 with a 2.63 ERA. He is 5-1 with a 1.40 ERA in his last seven starts. This will be his third start since coming off the injured list due to shoulder inflammation. He's 2-0 with a 0.87 ERA in those two outings pitching 10 1/3 innings against the Marlins and Orioles. The Brewers are going with Adrian Houser, a fifth-type rotation starter. He's 5-4 with a 4.28 ERA. Houser had a 5.66 ERA in four July starts and has a 3.80 ERA in four starts this month. | |||||||
08-27-23 | Cubs -118 v. Pirates | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
This low lay price makes it easy to back the Cubs. The Cubs have owned the Pirates winning eight of nine games from them this season. Look for that to continue in a pitching matchup of Javier Assad versus Bailey Falter. Assad is 2-2 with a 3.13 ERA. He's been sharp lately with a 2.86 ERA in his last four starts. Falter is 1-7 with a 4.53 ERA. Falter has a 9.35 ERA in four career appearances versus the Cubs. | |||||||
08-26-23 | Florida International v. Louisiana Tech OVER 58.5 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting 76 points to be scored like there were in Florida International's, 42-34 double overtime, home victory against Louisiana Tech last year. But I do expect these teams to combine for more than 60 points. Part of this is believing Florida International QB Grayson James has improved. James goes against a Louisiana Tech defense that was one of the worst in the country in 2022 ranking 128th in scoring defense and 127th in total defense. James should have time to pass and can rely on plenty of yards on the ground. The Bulldogs couldn't stop the run - ranking 130th - and didn't generate a pass rush. Louisiana Tech certainly isn't favored because of its defense. The Bulldogs have a fast-tempo, high-powered offense operated by Boise State transfer QB Hank Bachmeier. He was hurt last year, but was very good two seasons ago. The Bulldogs averaged 29 points last season in Sonny Cumbie's first season as head coach. They should improve on that number in Year 2 of Cumbie's ''Air Raid'' offense, especially going against such a weak defense here at home. | |||||||
08-26-23 | San Jose State +31 v. USC | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 46 h 14 m | Show | |
Yes, Caleb Williams is the Heisman Trophy frontrunner. But USC has a suspect defense that permitted nearly 28 points a game last season. San Jose State can produce points against this caliber of defense. The well-coached Spartans have the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference in Chevan Cordeiro. He's one of nine returning offensive starters for San Jose State. Cordeiro accounted for 32 TD's last season and threw for 3,251 yards. The Spartans are capable of getting stops against Williams. They have size at cornerback and an excellent safety in Tre Jenkins. The Williams' Heisman hype has made this point spread too lopsided. | |||||||
08-26-23 | Raiders v. Cowboys OVER 38 | 16-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
It's no surprise that both of the Raiders' preseason games have gone Over. Las Vegas has scored 34 points in each game beating the 49ers and Rams. There's a possibility the Raiders will give starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo playing time. The key, though, to the Raiders helping this total go Over is rookie QB Aidan O'Connell. He's been fantastic during preseason going 26-for-36 for 304 yards and three TD's with no turnovers. O'Connell came from Purdue where he was well schooled by then Boilermakers coach and passing guru Jeff Brohm. Dallas is giving up an average of 25 points in its two preseason games. The Cowboys are not playing starters. Their defense will be littered with reserves. The Cowboys aren't likely to play their star offensive players. However, Cooper Rush is one of the better QB's and third-stringer Will Grier has a big arm. They are going against a vulnerable Raiders secondary that lacks depth. So I see the Cowboys holding up their end of the scoring. | |||||||
08-26-23 | Hawaii v. Vanderbilt -17 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 170 h 55 m | Show |
Vanderbilt buried Hawaii, 63-10, in last year's season-opener in Hawaii. No, the Commodores aren't likely to win by 53 points again. But they should be able to cover this margin at home. The Commodores went 5-7 last season, while posting SEC upset victories against Florida and Kentucky during the last three weeks of the season. Vanderbilt has a number of good returning veterans on offense. Hawaii had one of the worst defenses in the country in 2022 giving up 34.7 points - ranking 124th - and were 115th in total defense. After averaging fewer than 20 points a game last season, Hawaii is going to a run-and-shoot offense in Timmy Chang's second year as the Rainbow Warriors' head coach. It's going to take time for this new offense to click. Vanderbilt holds edges all across the board. | |||||||
08-26-23 | Ravens +1.5 v. Bucs | 20-26 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 27 m | Show | |
John Harbaugh cares about winning preseason games. Todd Bowles doesn't. I see Harbaugh wanting to win this matchup after Baltimore's record 24-game preseason win streak was halted by the Commanders, 29-28, on a last-minute 49-yard field goal. Bowles is 8-13 as a head coach in preseason, including 1-4 with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is averaging just 15 points in two preseason games. The Buccaneers have decided on Baker Mayfield to be their starting QB. So there's no more QB competition and nothing for the Bucs to show and tip their hand especially with a vulnerable offensive line against an aggressive Ravens pass rush. The Ravens have a pair of veteran backup QB's in Tyler Huntley and Josh Johnson, who was 10-of-12 for 145 yards and two TD passes against Washington last week compiling a 121.9 quarterback rating. | |||||||
08-26-23 | Bills -140 v. Bears | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
From top-to-bottom, the Bills are far superior to the Bears - and they want a good performance after last week. The Bills trailed Pittsburgh, 27-0, before losing, 27-15, to the Steelers last Saturday. I'm expecting the Bills to play with more urgency. They have a strong QB rotation with Josh Allen backed up by veterans Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley. The Bears have multiple injuries in their offensive line. They have two weeks to get well before the regular season. Bears coach Matt Eberflus isn't going to gamble on the health of Justin Fields and other key skill position parts of his offense on a patchwork offensive line. That means Chicago is likely to dole out the QB minutes to P.J. Walker, Nathan Peterman and rookie Tyson Bagent. Those stiffs are easy to fade. | |||||||
08-25-23 | Chargers v. 49ers -7.5 | Top | 23-12 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
Certain coaches don't care about preseason. The Chargers' Brandon Staley is one such fellow. The Chargers' only victory during their last seven preseason games came against the Rams, whose coach, Sean McVay, cares even less about preseason than Staley. This is a lot of points to lay in an exhibition game. But it's justified. The 49ers are expected to play starters. They also have much better depth than the Chargers and a far stronger quarterback rotation with Brock Purdy, Sam Darnold and Trey Lance. The Chargers can't risk an injury to Justin Herbert, or any of their other stars, because they are so thin with a major talent dropoff from starters to reserves. That means LA will be going with a quarterback rotation of Easton Stick and seventh-round rookie draft choice Max Dugan. The 49ers are home and have fierce competition in their secondary that needs to be sorted out. They'll also want to showcase Lance so they'll be doing all they can to make him and their offense look good. | |||||||
08-25-23 | Sparks -128 v. Dream | 83-78 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show | |
Who's the hottest team in the WNBA? It's Los Angeles if you go by point spreads. The Sparks are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games with five straight outright victories. The Sparks have gotten healthy and their lineup has stabilized because of it. That's been a key in their winning streak. They also have an excellent coach in Curt Miller. Just two games ago, the Sparks upset the Aces, 78-72, in Las Vegas. The Dream just lost to the Aces, 112-100, at home this past Tuesday. Atlanta is regressing after showing signs of peaking going 3-7 SU and ATS in its last 10 games. The Dream aren't expected to have star guard Allisha Gray again. She missed Atlanta's game against the Aces due to an ankle injury. Also out for Atlanta is Nia Coffey, the Dream's third-leading rebounder and fifth-leading scorer. | |||||||
08-25-23 | Guardians v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
Two of the more underrated pitchers in the American League are Cleveland rookie Tanner Bibee and Toronto's nine-year veteran Chris Bassitt. They face each other here and the oddsmaker has set the total too high overlooking just how effective these two pitchers have been. Bibee has been getting better, not worse. He's 7-1 with a 2.34 ERA in his past 11 outings. One of these starts came against the Blue Jays on August 8. Bibee held the Blue Jays scoreless for seven innings in a 1-0 victory. He allowed six hits with no walks and six strikeouts. Bassitt has been excellent at home compiling a 6-2 mark with a 2.83 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in a dozen home starts for the Blue Jays this season. Bassitt draws a weak-hitting Guardians squad that ranks last in homers and 28th in runs. Cleveland is averaging just 2.6 runs per game in its last seven games if you discount an eight-run performance against the Dodgers. | |||||||
08-24-23 | Steelers -4.5 v. Falcons | Top | 24-0 | Win | 100 | 32 h 17 m | Show |
It's well noted that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 16 years as Steelers head coach. It's not so well known that Tomlin also has a great record in preseason. Pittsburgh is 17-4 SU, 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 preseason games. The Steelers have looked impressive again this preseason. They are 2-0, scoring 27 points in each of their victories against the Buccaneers and Bills while holding those two foes to an average of 16 points. Pittsburgh has unleashed an aggressive passing attack that has worked well. Kenny Pickett has led the Steelers to three touchdown drives of longer than 25 yards. The Steelers have a much better QB rotation than Atlanta and are the deeper team across the board. Pittsburgh backup QB Mitch Trubisky is arguably better than Atlanta starting QB Desmond Ridder. He certainly has more experience mobility. Mason Rudolph is a plus as far as third-string QB's go when it comes to preseason. The Falcons had 13 penalties for 102 yards during their 13-13 lackluster home tie with the Bengals last week. Falcons coach Arthur Smith wouldn't commit to playing any of his starters against the Steelers after using his starters against Cincinnati. | |||||||
08-24-23 | Liberty -6 v. Sun | 95-90 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Connecticut is the third-best team in the WNBA. Unfortunately for the Sun they are a distant third behind Las Vegas and New York. The Sun host New York here, but it's not a good spot for them. This marks Connecticut's third game in five days, all at different venues. The Sun have lost three of their past five games. They narrowly escaped short-handed Washington on the road two days ago winning, 68-64. New York is peaking at the right time as their star players are now more acclimated to each other. The Liberty are 20-4 in their last 24 games, covering six of their past seven games. The Liberty are battle-tested having played the Aces twice during their last three games with both games being in Las Vegas. New York should be well-rested and prepared for this challenge having been idle since last Friday. | |||||||
08-23-23 | Nationals v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Luis Severino is the Adam Wainwright of the American League, a once very-good pitcher, who has been absolutely terrible this season. Severino is enduring the worst stretch of his eight-year career. He is 1-6 with an 11.08 ERA during his last eight outings, including seven starts. He's surrendered 19 homers on the season in 65 2/3 innings. His last three starts have been absolutely brutal - a 13.50 ERA and 2.38 WHIP. The Nationals know how to get on base. They rank fifth in the majors in batting average. The Yankees go against lefty MacKenzie Gore, who has a 5.11 road ERA. The Yankees are averaging 5.1 runs against southpaws this season. | |||||||
08-22-23 | Reds +121 v. Angels | Top | 4-3 | Win | 121 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
On paper, the Angels are justified being home favorites with a pitching matchup of Graham Ashcraft opposing Lucas Giolito. Reality is different. The Reds have the hotter pitcher going and are the more motivated team. Cincinnati harbors postseason hope. They have a lot of exciting youth. The Angels have fallen out of realistic playoff contention having lost 13 of their last 18 games. Ashcraft has a 4.89 ERA. However, he has pitched much better during the second half of the season. Ashcraft hasn't surrendered more than three earned runs during each of his past nine starts. His road and night splits are much better than his home and day time pitching numbers. Ashcraft could catch the Angels' hitters rusty from not having played the last two days. Giolito is having a second straight down season. He's been especially bad for the Angels since coming from the White Sox. Giolito has made four starts for the Angels and is 1-3 with an 8.14 ERA. The Reds' 33-27 road mark is better than the Angels' home record. | |||||||
08-22-23 | Red Sox v. Astros -127 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
He's 40, but Justin Verlander still is an elite pitcher. He isn't being priced like one, however, pitching at home against the Red Sox and Tanner Houck. Houck has been out the past two months after taking a line drive below his right eye against the Yankees on June 16. It remains to be seen how long and effective Houck can be. Before his injury, Houck wasn't in good form with an 0-6 record and 5.40 ERA during his last nine starts. The Astros are off a well-played victory against the Red Sox last night. I like the pitching matchup for the Astros and their momentum. The Red Sox are just a .500 team on the road. | |||||||
08-22-23 | Storm v. Sky -175 | 79-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Chicago can't take a home loss here to the lowly 10-22 Storm. The Sky are 1 1/2 games out of a playoff spot with the season winding down. The Sky are in stop-the-pain mode after a 79-73 home loss to Connecticut two days ago. Chicago was only 3 of 21 from 3-point range in that game. The Sky should shoot much better against this much weaker defensive opponent. The Storm have the league's leading scorer, Jewell Loyd, but are the worst-shooting team in the WNBA. Both teams are playing for the third time in five days. Chicago, however, has been home for the past four days, while this is Seattle's third different venue in five days. | |||||||
08-21-23 | Giants v. Phillies -143 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
After a fun Sunday playing the Nationals in the MLB Little League Classic in Williamsport, Pa., the Phillies will be taking this game very seriously, especially after getting upset by Washington last night. As well as they should. The Phillies are just two games ahead of the Giants for a wild-card berth. I like the Phillies' chances here. They've won eight of their past dozen home games and hold a huge pitching edge with Aaron Nola facing Scott Alexander in what shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants. Nola pitches better at home where his ERA is 3.59 compared to 5.26 on the road. The Giants have lost 10 of their last 14 games. They just placed shortstop Brandon Crawford on the injured list leaving them with a huge gap at a key defensive position. San Francisco's bullpen is stretched, too. Giants relievers had to pitch 7 1/3 innings to edge the Braves, 4-3, on Sunday after starter Jakob Junis pitched just 1 2/3 innings. That was just the Giants' second away victory during their last 14 road games. | |||||||
08-20-23 | Saints -3.5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
In the wacky world of preseason football what counts heavily are the quality of backup quarterbacks and how serious the head coach is about wanting to win the game. We have clear indications in this matchup - and they point to a Saints victory and likely cover. New Orleans coach Dennis Allen isn't afraid to go with his regulars. Both Derek Carr and second-string Jameis Winston played opening week for the Saints. The Saints beat the Chiefs, 26-24, with Carr and Winston each leading a TD drive. Carr and Winston, who could be the best backup QB in the NFL, are expected to play again today. Allen wants to build momentum after New Orleans went a dismal 7-10 in his first year as its head coach last season. Look for Alvin Kamara to get touches, too. Kamara is suspended for the first three games. So Allen needs to get him reps. Chargers coach Brandon Staley has an opposite approach about preseason - and for good reason. The Chargers have great starting talent, but are thin depth-wise. They can't afford injuries, which they were hit with last season. So Staley is likely to use his second and third-stringers throughout the game. That includes undistinguished reserve QB's Easton Stick and Max Duggan. Staley's preseason record is 2-5. The Chargers went 0-3 SU and ATS in preseason last year, losing by an average of 12.6 points. If there's one coach who cares even less about winning during preseason than Staley it's Sean McVay and the Rams. The Chargers happened to play the Rams last week in their opener and won, 34-17. But the oddsmakers know the real story. That's why they made the Saints more than a field goal road favorite here. | |||||||
08-20-23 | Storm v. Lynx -5.5 | 88-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
The teams just met two days ago in Seattle and Minnesota won, 78-70. The Lynx won despite making just 6 of 21 3-point shots. Now Minnesota is home. Seattle is one of the three worst teams in the WNBA at 9-22. The Lynx are a playoff team. Minnesota is 11-5-1 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Storm is heavily reliant on Jewell Loyd and she's been cold. Loyd has missed 21 of her last 24 shots from 3-point range. | |||||||
08-19-23 | Bucs v. Jets OVER 36.5 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
Most NFL teams have decided on their starting quarterback. Not the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield is being pressed by Kyle Trask, who has fit in well while operating new Buccaneers' offensive coordinator Dave Canales' style that features a lot of bootlegs and rollouts. Both Mayfield and Trask are going to see plenty of action against the Jets, who don't figure to be playing many of their defensive starters for too long if at all. The two Tampa Bay quarterbacks held their own during joint practices against the Jets this week. So they will be ready. John Wolford isn't bad as far as third-stringers go. So the Buccaneers should produce their share of points. So should the Jets - and this is assuming Aaron Rodgers doesn't play. It's an unexpected, added bonus if he does. Zach Wilson should get the majority of quarterback reps for New York. Wilson has much to prove. Rodgers has helped coach him up to the point where Wilson is effective against second and third-string defenses, which he should find here. The Jets are deep at running back and wide receiver. Veteran third-string QB Tim Boyle also is capable of moving an offense against backups. | |||||||
08-19-23 | Sparks +17 v. Aces | 78-72 | Win | 100 | 3 h 23 m | Show | |
The timing is ripe for the Sparks to stay well within this lopsided point spread. The Aces are in a letdown spot after marquee home games this past Tuesday and Thursday against New York. Las Vegas had a highly-satisfying, 88-75, revenge win against the Liberty two days ago. Now they have to play less than 48 hours later in a day game. Las Vegas has the best record in the WNBA by four games. A playoff berth has been clinched by the Aces. Los Angeles is in contention for a playoff spot. The Sparks have gotten healthy and are playing well with a three-game win streak. Their last victory came a week ago when they defeated Atlanta, 85-74. That may have been the Sparks' best defensive effort. LA comes in motivated, prepared, rested and in excellent form rendering this point spread too high. | |||||||
08-18-23 | Winnipeg v. Calgary OVER 46.5 | 19-18 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
This total has come down a little since Winnipeg won't have starting QB Zach Collaros, who has a neck injury. I find the Over/Under too low, though. The Blue Bombers lead the CFL in yards gained per game and are No. 2 in the league in scoring at 30.9 points. They have a very capable backup QB in Dru Brown. Brown threw for 307 yards and four TD's to lead Winnipeg past Edmonton, 38-29, on the road last week. It was the fifth time in their last six road games the Blue Bombers went Over the total. Calgary has permitted 24 or more points in six of its last seven games. The Stampeders just gave up 320 passing yards in a 37-9 loss to BC this past Saturday. BC averages five fewer points per game than Winnipeg. I expect the Blue Bombers to produce plenty of points here. The key is if Calgary can keep up with Winnipeg's point production. Stampeders QB Jake Maier is inconsistent. But he has weapons with running backs Ka'Deem Carey and Dedrick Mills and receivers Reggie Begelton and Tre Odoms-Dukes. It's promising for the Stampeders that the Blue Bombers surrendered 29 points to a 1-9 Edmonton team last week after the Elks had been shut out by BC in their previous game. | |||||||
08-18-23 | White Sox +107 v. Rockies | 1-14 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
I harbor no big illusions anymore for Michael Kopech. I thought for years he would be a great pitcher once he got fully healthy. It hasn't happened. Kopech is who he is - a potentially high strikeout pitcher with mediocre numbers, 5-10 record and 4.58 ERA. But the White Sox and Kopech still are better than the Rockies and their starter, Peter Lambert, who is 2-4 with a 5.46 ERA. The White Sox are a major disappointment. However, they still have some feared batters. Luis Robert Jr. gives them the best player on the field. The Rockies are in full rebuild mode. Chicago is 5-5 in its last 10 games. Colorado is 2-8 in its past 10 games. Kopech has made just two career starts against the Rockies, but has a strong record to show for that: 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA. He pitched at Coors Field a little more than a year ago and didn't allow a run in 5 1/3 innings. | |||||||
08-18-23 | Panthers v. Giants -3 | Top | 19-21 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Prize rookie QB Bryce Young is going to play just like he did during Week 1 of the preseason last week. That's a good thing for the Giants. Young and the youthful Panthers in their first year under Frank Reich looked terrible in a 27-0 loss to the Jets this past Saturday. I don't expect the Panthers, traveling on a short week with a makeshift offensive line, to fare much better this week. Not only are the Giants home, but have had an extra day having played last Friday. They are off a 21-16 road loss to the Lions. New York led 13-3 at halftime. The Lions pulled the game out by scoring a TD with less than two minutes left. The Giants had built a 13-3 halftime lead. However, that lead was cut to 13-11 when the Giants surrendered a 95-yard punt return TD. Young played three series for the Panthers last week. Carolina produced a meager 16 yards during that time. Second-year Carolina QB Matt Corral, who missed his rookie season after suffering a Lisfranc injury last August, is equally inexperienced. He, too, didn't play well against the Jets getting sacked four times and throwing an interception. Carolina's QB game plan is expected to be the same - play Young for a few series and then go with Corral for the rest of the game. They are behind a very much work in progress Carolina offensive line. I not only like the Giants' defense - which allowed only one TD drive to the Lions last week - better than Carolina's offense, but also New York's QB rotation of veteran Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito. The Giants have a lot of competition and unsettled spots at wide receiver, so they should be on the attack. The Panthers' reserve defenders gave up 14 points to the Jets' third-string offense in the fourth quarter. | |||||||
08-17-23 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
Corbin Burnes has been back on track for the last month and a half. He's 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 50 2/3 innings spanning his past eight starts. Burnes has earned trust to hold the powerful Dodgers in check. But can an Under work when Lance Lynn is the opposing pitcher? Probably not when Lynn was pitching for the White Sox. But Lynn has been dominant since coming to the Dodgers going 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three starts. He has a strong history, too, versus the Brewers going 11-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 117 strikeouts in 108 1/3 innings that spans 21 appearances, including 17 starts. Lynn is not facing a very good offensive team. Milwaukee is well below average - 22nd in runs, 28th in batting average and 27th in OPS. The Brewers are having problems scoring in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium managing only three runs during the first two games of this series. | |||||||
08-17-23 | Liberty v. Aces UNDER 176.5 | 75-88 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
These teams just met two days ago in Las Vegas for the Commissioner's Cup, an honorary game that didn't count in the standings. I thought it would be a loose game between the league's two-highest scoring teams. So I went with the Over. Wrong. New York destroyed Las Vegas, 82-63. The game went Under by 33 points. Live and learn. I'm confidently going Under in the rematch. The Liberty have held the Aces to an average of 62 points - 32 points below the Aces' league-leading 94 points a game - in two games during the last 11 days. It's more than just the Aces being cold from the floor and superstar center A'ja Wilson getting bottled up in the paint. The Liberty are exploiting the offensive inefficiency of Aces center Kiah Stokes, who has replaced injured Candace Parker. Stokes is strictly a defensive player. She has no offensive game. That allowed the Liberty to fully concentrate on Las Vegas' four other starters, including double-teams on Wilson. The Aces' one weakness is lack of depth. The Liberty are perhaps the only team in the league that can exploit that. New York's bench outscored Las Vegas' reserves by 20 points in Tuesday's game. The Liberty's 95.3 defensive rating during the last seven games is the second-best in the league. The Aces have the best defensive rating in the WNBA. But Aces coach Becky Hammon wasn't pleased with her team's defense in Tuesday's loss. Expect the Aces - in double revenge mode and after suffering their first home loss of the season - to come out highly motivated, playing strong defense. There should be a playoff intensity to this game, which translates to tough defense. | |||||||
08-17-23 | Mets -115 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
Not only could the Cardinals be down four key starters here against the Mets, but they are pitching Adam Wainwright. Wainwright has a shot at being a Hall of Famer, but he should have retired at the end of last season like his future Hall of Fame teammates Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina. Instead Wainwright chose to return this year. He shouldn't have. It's been embarrassing. Wainwright has given up three or more runs in 14 of his 15 starts. He's 3-7 with an 8.78 ERA. St. Louis is 2-9 in his last 11 starts. Not only is Wainwright an auto-fade now, but the Cardinals could be missing four important players facing veteran and former Cardinal Jose Quintana, who is in good form having allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts. Quintana has a 3.03 ERA on the season. Nolan Gorman has missed St. Louis' last three games with a lower back injury. Catcher Wilson Contreras has sat out the past two games due to a hip injury. Then on Wednesday, centerfielder Lars Nootbaar and shortstop Tommy Edman left with injuries. After Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, these could be the Cardinals' next four best players. The Cardinals have underachieved all season, particularly at home where they are 27-34. St. Louis management doesn't want to embarrass Wainwright. But no way should he still be in the rotation after surrendering eight runs on nine hits, including two homers, in just one inning against the Royals this past Friday. That's up there for the worst pitching performance of the season. The Mets have been a major disappointment, too, but they are swinging hot bats averaging 6.5 runs in their last four games. | |||||||
08-16-23 | White Sox v. Cubs OVER 11 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
You know with a total this high on a Cubs home game that wind has to factor. It does. The forecast is for 15 mph winds blowing out to left field. The Cubs have an underrated top-10 offense. They are getting big seasons from a number of below-the-radar hitters, including Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner and recently acquired Jeimer Candelairo. The Cubs rank fifth in the majors in runs, eighth in OPS and 10th in batting average. The White Sox have produced at least five runs in six of their last nine games. They are averaging five runs a game during their last five games with four of those matchups coming against pitchers much better than who the Cubs will pitch against them. The Cubs could start Javier Assad. This could turn into a bullpen game for the Cubs. Both team's closers pitched last night and could be unavailable. The White Sox are expected to start Mike Clevinger. The White Sox's bullpen has the seventh-highest ERA in the league. | |||||||
08-15-23 | Liberty v. Aces OVER 175.5 | Top | 82-63 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
These are the two highest scoring teams in the league. New York averages 88.5 points. That scoring average goes up to 96 points if you count just the last three games. Las Vegas is No. 1 in the WNBA in scoring at 94 points and also No. 1 in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. If the two teams just hit their scoring average the total easily goes Over. I'm expecting the final score will go Over. These are the two superpowers of the league. This game will draw extra attention because it's the annual Commissioner's Cup. Players from the winning team earn $30,000 with the MVP getting an extra $5,000. These players don't make NBA-type salaries. That money is a big incentive for them. The pride of being named MVP for the game should spur the three superstars competing - A'ja Wilson, Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu - into big scoring games. And here's the kicker: The game does not count in the standings. So basically it's an exhibition, which should have an All-Star Game offensive-type flavor to it. | |||||||
08-15-23 | Pirates v. Mets -132 | 7-4 | Loss | -132 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
Hold a parade. The Mets have won two in a row. That's a big deal for this team. Now the Mets are in great position to make it three straight. I find them underpriced against the Pirates, who are 10 games below .500 on the road, in a pitching matchup of Bailey Falter versus David Peterson. Falter has yet to win on the road this season. He holds a 6.20 ERA in his last three starts. Peterson pitches far better at Citi Field where his season ERA is 2.93 compared to 7.75 on the road. | |||||||
08-15-23 | Phillies v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
Hold a parade. The Mets have won two in a row. That's a big deal for this team. Now the Mets are in great position to make it three straight. I find them underpriced against the Pirates, who are 10 games below .500 on the road, in a pitching matchup of Bailey Falter versus David Peterson. Falter has yet to win on the road this season. He holds a 6.20 ERA in his last three starts. Peterson pitches far better at Citi Field where his season ERA is 2.93 compared to 7.75 on the road. | |||||||
08-14-23 | Mariners v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
It didn't draw much publicity, but Logan Gilbert had one of the best starts of the season this past Tuesday. Gilbert shut out the Padres for seven innings giving up one hit and no walks while striking out 12. That was at home. The underrated Gilbert is 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA when pitching on the road. He has a 2.58 ERA during his last seven starts. Gilbert faces a weak-hitting Royals team that ranks 28th in runs, 27th in OPS and 26th in homers. Opposing Gilbert is Brady Singer, whose season numbers don't impress at 8-8 with a 5.05 ERA. Singer, however, has been below-the-radar since the All-Star break compiling a 2.94 ERA. He has surrendered just seven earned runs during his past four starts spanning 25 2/3 innings with a 27-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio during this time frame. The Royals enjoyed a rare Sunday off. So their bullpen is rested. The Mariners rank 25th in batting average. They do not have one regular batting higher than .266. Seattle has scored fewer than four runs in five of its last seven games. | |||||||
08-13-23 | Ottawa +10 v. Toronto | Top | 31-44 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Being able to stop the run and run the ball effectively with a mobile quarterback is a strong combination when taking double-digits on the road against an overrated opponent. That's how I see things in backing the Ottawa Redblacks against Toronto. The Redblacks are No. 1 in the CFL both in rushing and run defense. Ottawa's QB Denny Crum has given the team a huge lift with his exciting play since taking over from injured Jeremiah Masoli. Crum averages 8.5 yards per carry, highest in the CFL. Crum should present a strong dual threat as Toronto ranks eighth out of nine teams in the league in pass defense. Only once have the Redblacks lost by double-digits. They are capable of springing a major upset like they did against Winnipeg, also as a double-digit 'dog. The Redblacks defeated Calgary three weeks ago, too. Calgary upset Toronto last week. That loss looks worse now for the Argonauts after BC thrashed Calgary, 37-9, last night. That was the Argos' first loss of the season. They are 6-1 and have played only two above .500 opponents. The Argos rank sixth in total yards and yards allowed. That's below average. Toronto will have Chad Kelly at quarterback. Kelly suffered an ankle injury last week, but has been cleared to play. However, Kelly - like Crum - relies on mobility and that mobility could be compromised by his ankle injury. Toronto also is banged-up on defense. | |||||||
08-13-23 | Mercury v. Storm -120 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Both teams rank among the three-worst in the WNBA. Phoenix and Seattle have been playing better, though. Phoenix has won two in a row. However, those victories were achieved at home. The Mercury are 1-13 on the road. They also are 7-18-1 ATS following a win. Seattle is in rebuild mode, but gets tremendous home fan support. The Storm are 4-2 in their last six games. They have covered in five of their past seven games. The Storm pulled out a 68-67 upset home victory in their last game, coming from 16 points down to beat Atlanta this past Thursday. That should give them momentum and confidence. Seattle should also have confidence against this opponent having just defeated the Mercury in Phoenix eight days ago, 97-91. | |||||||
08-13-23 | Angels v. Astros OVER 8.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
With this number coming down, I'm going to get involved in the Over. Each team should be good for at least four runs. Angels rookie starter Chase Silseth is pitching better than his metrics show. He's been lucky and is due for regression. The Angels' bullpen has the third-highest ERA in the league during the past nine days. The Astros are averaging 5.2 runs during the past 2 1/2 months, which is the highest in the American League. The Angels should do their share of damage against a rusty Jose Urquidy, who has a 6.20 ERA. This is just his second start since April. The Angels have averaged nearly five runs since the beginning of June. | |||||||
08-13-23 | Yankees -115 v. Marlins | 7-8 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
This should be an excellent pitching matchup with Gerrit Cole going against Eury Perez. We know we're going to get a strong performance from Cole, an elite starter. Cole has permitted two runs or fewer in 18 of his 24 starts this season. The only pitcher that can match that consistency is Blake Snell. The Yankees, who lost to the Marlins on Saturday, are 9-1 following a loss when Cole has been on the mound for the next game. Perez is a rookie with a high ceiling. However, he's not as consistent as Cole. Perez has lost his last three decisions, including giving up four runs in four innings in a loss to the Reds this past Monday. I find it good value to get Cole in this price range. | |||||||
08-12-23 | Sun +2.5 v. Wings | 81-91 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Connecticut is off a 90-84 road loss to Phoenix this past Tuesday. Only once all season have the Sun dropped two in a row. The Sun are the top defensive team in the WNBA. Dallas ranks 10th defensively in the 12-team league. The Wings are in a slump having lost and failed to cover in four of their last five games. Connecticut is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 road games. The Sun also have covered in five of their last six games versus the Wings. | |||||||
08-12-23 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show | |
Two below-the-radar pitchers go at it here. The Cardinals are going with Steven Matz. KC is starting Cole Ragans. Matz is 3-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last six starts. He faces a Royals offense that ranks 28th in runs. He also won't have to deal with injured leadoff hitter Maikel Garcia, who is hitting .304 in his last 35 games. Ragans has been a pleasant surprise for the Royals since coming from the Rangers. He has a 1.02 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 17 2/3 innings with the Royals. The oddsmaker is not showing these pitchers enough respect with this high of a total. | |||||||
08-12-23 | Calgary v. BC -6 | 9-37 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
I don't see Calgary doing much damage against a BC defense that ranks No. 1 in total defense and scoring defense. The visiting Stampeders have some respect on this line after upsetting Toronto last week. But Calgary caught Toronto when the Argos were flat and lost their QB, Chad Kelly, to injury during the game. BC isn't going to lack motivation after suffering a 50-14 blowout road loss to Winnipeg last week. The Lions have starting QB Vernon Adams back from injury now. The Lions are 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year. They've covered six straight home games going back to last season. The teams met opening week in Calgary and BC won, 25-15. I see another double-digit win for the Lions here. | |||||||
08-12-23 | Colts v. Bills +3.5 | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Bet against Sean McDermott and his Bills during preseason at your own peril. The Bills are 9-1 in their last 10 preseason games. Yet the Colts are road favorites. That's way too much respect just because the Colts have announced that rookie QB Anthony Richardson will start. Josh Allen is not likely to play. But I like Buffalo's backup QB's - Kyle Allen and Matt Barkley - more than Richardson. Allen and Barkley are veterans who can produce against reserve defenders in a vanilla scheme. | |||||||
08-11-23 | Broncos v. Cardinals +6 | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
This is the largest point spread on the NFL Week 1 preseason card. I don't think it's justified. Yes, Russell Wilson is going to start. But so is Colt McCoy, who will be the Cardinals' starting QB this season with Kyler Murray out. I don't like McCoy, but he's fine during preseason being a veteran and going against reserve defenders. Wilson is off his worst season ever. Now he's making another transition with Sean Payton taking over. The Broncos' offense is going to be a work-in-progress especially this being their first game of preseason. McCoy's backup QB's are dual threat rookie Clayton Tune, who has looked good in camp, and veterans Jeff Driskell and David Blough. The Broncos have backup QB's Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci. Stidham is one of the better second-string QB's, but DiNucci has failed to distinguish himself while being a third-to-fourth string QB for the Cowboys the previous three years. New Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon would like to make a good early impression on the home crowd while building momentum. So he wants a victory here. | |||||||
08-11-23 | Commanders v. Browns -3 | 17-15 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Not only do the Browns have home field. But they have the advantage of already having played a game, beating the Jets in the Hall of Fame game last week. Cleveland also holds a QB edge. DeShaun Watson is expected to start and play several series. Watson will be looking to atone for his disappointing first season with the Browns last year. Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson also should get snaps for the Browns. He was instrumental in the Browns upsetting the Jets last week with his dual threat passing and 36 yards rushing on six carries. Sam Howell is expected to start for Washington. Perhaps veteran backup Jacoby Brissett might play, too, for Washington. However, the Commanders have a horrible third-string QB in Jake Fromm. The Commanders have had plenty of distractions during training camp with new ownership and players complaining about the toughness of new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. They aren't going to be as ready to play as the Browns. | |||||||
08-11-23 | Reds +100 v. Pirates | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
After playing 27 games in 28 days, the Reds received a much needed day off on Thursday. I see them coming up big against the Pirates today with good-looking rookie lefty Andrew Abbott and a finally fresh bullpen that has a lower ERA than Pittsburgh's bullpen. The Pirates could be in a letdown mood after splitting four exciting games against the Braves at home. Abbott is 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He has 74 strikeouts in 70 2/3 innings. The Pirates rank 27th in slugging percentage versus left-handed pitching. Pittsburgh starter Johan Oviedo is 6-11 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. | |||||||
08-11-23 | Packers v. Bengals +4 | 36-19 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
These non-conference opponents actually have some familiarity with each other. They had joint practices and scrimmages this week. It was the Bengals defense that dominated the action. Yet the Packers are solid road favorites here because Jordan Love may get a series or two while Joe Burrow and the Bengals starters won't play. So what. That doesn't justify this line. It's the Bengals who have the stronger backup quarterback situation. NFL veteran Trevor Siemian and Jake Browning will be under center for Cincinnati. Green Bay's backup QB's are fifth-round rookie Sean Clifford and Alex McGough of the USFL, who was waived five times by NFL teams. Siemian may get extensive playing time with the chance Burrow isn't ready to start the season. It's not like Matt LaFleur places any special emphasis on winning preseason games. Green Bay is 1-5 the past two years in preseason. | |||||||
08-10-23 | Dream -5.5 v. Storm | Top | 67-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
Discount road losses to the Aces and Liberty, the league's two powerhouses, and Atlanta is 10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games. Seattle is 2-13 at home this season. The Storm have lost their past six home contests. They also are without injured Gabby Williams. This is a huge loss. She could be the Storm's second or third-best all-around player. I don't believe this line has fully accounted for her absence here.
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08-10-23 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks OVER 44.5 | 38-29 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Winnipeg could come close to covering the Over just by itself. The Blue Bombers are averaging 30 points and rank No. 1 in total yards and passing yards Edmonton gives up the most total yards and rushing yards. The Elks give up the second-most points per game, too, at 26.5. The Blue Bombers just produced 50 points against BC last week. The Lions had the best defense in the league entering that matchup. So I don't see how the Elks can keep Winnipeg from piling on points. Blue Bombers QB Zach Collaros leads the CFL in TD passes. He has four excellent receivers. The key is how many points can the Elks put up? I believe they will contribute to this total going Over. They made a QB switch to dual threat Tre Ford and had a bye last week. Look for the Elks to show more on offense now. This is what Ford said, "I like our offensive scheme going into this week. I feel like we've done really well in practice just executing the plays and moving the ball. Offensively, I feel like we're looking pretty strong right now. It's super exciting. ..." | |||||||
08-09-23 | Giants v. Angels -130 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to make this start. So the price is right to back the Angels and Ohtani. Just two starts ago, Ohtani threw a complete game one-hit, shutout against the Tigers. Ohtani has a 2.97 home ERA. The Giants have a below offense and don't steal bases ranking second-to-last in the league. San Francisco also leads the National League in errors and its bullpen carries a high fatigue rating. That matters because this shapes up as a bullpen game for the Giants. Giants starter Ryan Walker hasn't pitched more than three innings in a game all season. Mike Trout isn't back yet for the Angels, but underrated Brandon Drury just came off the injured list. He had three hits and scored three runs for the Angels last night. | |||||||
08-08-23 | Aces v. Wings OVER 177 | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
I see this as a huge bounce back spot for Las Vegas. The Aces were held to a season-low in points by New York in their last game this past Sunday, losing 99-61. Despite that low scoring output, Las Vegas easily leads the WNBA in scoring at 93.1 points. Dallas is No. 3 in scoring at 86.2 points. The Wings just surrendered 104 points twice in home losses to Chicago during their last two games. That was 23 points above the Sky's season scoring average. Both the Aces and Wings like to push pace. So I see an up-tempo matchup here. The Aces have gone Over in 14 of their last 19 road games. | |||||||
08-08-23 | Aces -8.5 v. Wings | 104-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. New York is the only team even remotely close to the Aces. I see this as a kill spot for Las Vegas following its 99-61 embarrassing road loss to the Liberty two days ago. The 24-3 Aces haven't lost twice in a row all season. They followed up their earlier two losses by victories of 13 and 24 points. The Aces have won their last five road games by an average of 17.6 points. Dallas is not in good form having just lost consecutive home games to 12-15 Chicago by a combined 23 points. | |||||||
08-08-23 | Sparks +1.5 v. Fever | Top | 87-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Indiana had the worst record in the WNBA last season and the Fever have the worst record in the league this season. The Fever are 2-14 in their last 16 games. They have failed to cover in their past five games. The Sparks are a disappointing 10-18. But they've been hit hard by injuries. So at least they have an excuse. Now, though, the Sparks are getting healthy. They just beat the Mystics, 91-83, on the road this past Sunday. That was the Sparks' fifth straight cover. LA is the better team. It's not too much to ask the Sparks to merely win this game. | |||||||
08-07-23 | Royals v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
Anytime there's a double-digit total on the Royals, my first look is to the Under. It's my last look, too, for this matchup as I don't see the Red Sox and Royals reaching 10 runs in this game. Kansas City ranks second-to-last in the league in runs, 27th in OPS and 26th in homers. The Royals are likely to be without their star power-hitting catcher Salvador Perez. He was pulled from Sunday's game suffering a bruised hand after being hit by a pitch. Perez is second on the Royals in homers and RBI's. That's good news for Boston starter Brayan Bello, who leads the Red Sox in victories. Bello is 8-6 with a 3.79 ERA. That ERA goes down to 3.29 when he pitches at home and shrinks to 2.82 when he pitches at night. Lefty Cole Ragans draws the start for Kansas City. He's 3-3 with a 4.33 ERA, but is below-the-radar with his current form. He's given up just one earned run in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. Ragans has struck out 11 during this 11-inning span. The Red Sox rank slightly below average against lefties in slugging percentage and OPS. The wind will be blowing in at seven mph, another plus for the Under. | |||||||
08-07-23 | Blue Jays v. Guardians +117 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Fresh off a three-game road sweep of the Red Sox, the Blue Jays come into Cleveland riding high. But that doesn't mean they should be favored in a pitching matchup of Hyun Jin Ryu versus rookie Gavin Williams. Ryu made his first big league start since undergoing elbow surgery in June of 2022 this past Tuesdayagainst the Orioles. It did not go well. He permitted four runs on nine hits in five-plus innings. The Orioles won, 13-3. Obviously rusty, Ryu is likely going to need several more starts to find his groove - if he can find it. Williams has a high ceiling and is pitching well with a 2.50 ERA in his past four starts. Williams has the element of surprise as the Blue Jays have never faced him. Williams also has the benefit of the stronger bullpen. Cleveland's relief staff has the fourth-lowest ERA. | |||||||
08-07-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -160 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
The lay price is high here for the Braves even on the run line. It should be. Because the Braves hold all the edges - and these are big edges. The Braves are the road team. So they'll be assured of getting nine innings of at bats. The pitching matchup pits an ''A'' pitcher against a ''D'' type pitcher with Spencer Strider facing Osvaldo Bido. Strider is 12-3 with a 3.61 ERA. He leads the majors in strikeouts. If he wins this game, he'll be tied for the most victories in the majors. Strider has been at his best, too, on the road where he's 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA. Bido is 2-2 with a 5.18 ERA. Bido is not in good form with a 7.27 ERA in his last three starts. He pitches worse at home where he's 0-2 with an 8.40 ERA. Atlanta won't lack motivation having lost two straight games. If you discount a one-run game against the Angels, the Braves are averaging eight runs per game during their last eight games. Each of the Braves' last 11 victories have been by more than one run. | |||||||
08-06-23 | Dodgers v. Padres UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Lots of big-name hitters here facing two over-the-hill starting pitchers. Sounds like it shouldn't be too difficult for the Dodgers and Padres to reach double-digit runs, right? Not so fast. Let's not forget this game is being played at Petco Park, the premier pitching park in the majors. Lance Lynn and Rich Hill are a combined 79 years old. Neither has good statistics, but they are savvy veterans both acquired at the trade deadline because they know how to navigate through big games such as this one. Lynn's problem is giving up too many home runs. He's surrendered 31 of them this season. But Lynn also has 151 strikeouts in 126 innings, which comes out to an average of 10.7 per nine innings. So he still can fire. The Dodgers' bullpen has shown big improvement leading the league with a 2.84 ERA since June 30 entering the weekend. The underachieving Padres offense ranks 19th in batting average and 13th in runs. Look for Hill to pitch better going from the Pirates to the Padres. The lefty won't lack motivation with this being his first start for San Diego. The Dodgers rank 24th in batting average versus southpaw pitching. This is a huge game for the Padres. They have a rested Josh Hader to go two innings if needed. | |||||||
08-06-23 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan OVER 44 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
They began the season as backups. But quarterbacks Dustin Crum of Ottawa and Mason Fine of Saskatchewan have earned my trust. The highly mobile Crum has helped turn the Redblacks into the top rushing team in the CFL. Saskatchewan has struggled against dual-threat quarterbacks. The Roughriders are giving up 27.6 points in their last three games. Fine has thrown for 302 and 284 yards, respectively, in his last two games going against Toronto and BC, who are a combined 12-3. Now he's stepping down in class. Ottawa will be without defensive back Brandin Dandridge, who has four interceptions. The Redblacks give up the third-most yards per game. The Over has cashed six of the past eight times when the teams have played in Saskatchewan. | |||||||
08-06-23 | Fever v. Dream -7.5 | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Indiana is back in a familiar spot in the WNBA - having the worst record. The Fever are 2-13 in their last 15 games. They just were blown out, 88-72, at home by Connecticut two days ago. Atlanta isn't as good as Connecticut. But the Dream are playing for playoff seeding and have strong motivation. They are home following bad road losses to Las Vegas and Phoenix. The 20-point loss to the Mercury in their last game this past Thursday was an embarrassment. The Fever have struggled against the Dream point spread-wise going 3-12-1 ATS during the past 16 meetings. | |||||||
08-05-23 | Storm v. Mercury -135 | 97-91 | Loss | -135 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
Seattle has the worst record in the WNBA at 6-20. But two of those victories came against Phoenix. So the Mercury have double revenge being 0-2 versus the Storm. More important than that, though, is Phoenix is home and has momentum. Phoenix is 1-13 on the road, but 6-6 at home. The Mercury played maybe their best game of the season this past Thursday at home upsetting Atlanta, 91-71, as 7 1/2-point underdogs. Diana Taurasi scored 42 points to become the first WNBA player to reach 10,000 career points. The 41-year-old Taurasi is averaging 31.7 points in her last three games. She's been a big inspiration for the Mercury, who get back star center Brittney Griner. The Storm have been playing better, but are off a deflating home loss to the Wings, 76-65, this past Wednesday. Phoenix has covered its past four home games. | |||||||
08-05-23 | Dodgers v. Padres -142 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Given their large payroll, the Padres are one of the most disappointing teams in baseball. But don't blame Blake Snell. He's the hottest pitcher in baseball having given up only six earned runs in his last 13 starts! Snell leads the majors with a 2.50 ERA. The pitching matchup is so huge in San Diego's favor that this is a fair price to lay to get Snell against probable Dodgers starter Michael Grove and what could be a host of below par LA relief pitchers. Grove has a 6.75 ERA. He just gave up eight runs on 10 hits and a walk to the Reds in six innings this past Sunday. | |||||||
08-05-23 | White Sox v. Guardians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
It's not hard to envision these teams each producing at least nine runs given the starting pitching matchup and the White Sox gutting their bullpen at the trade deadline. Chicago starter Michael Kopech has been a major disappointment after beginning his career with such high promise. He's 4-10 with a 4.49 ERA. That ERA climbs to 5.09 when he pitches at night. The Guardians just faced Kopech six days ago and got to him for three runs in five innings. Noah Syndergaard draws the start for Cleveland. Syndergaard has struggled following major arm surgery. He's 1-4 with a 6.68 ERA. | |||||||
08-05-23 | Rays -140 v. Tigers | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Not only is there a huge class difference in this one, but also in the starting pitchers. Tampa Bay wisely traded for Aaron Civale, who is one of the more underrated pitchers in baseball with a 5-2 record, 2.34 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 13 starts. Civale faces a weak-hitting Tigers lineup that ranks in the bottom-three in many of the major categories, including runs, batting average and homers.
Detroit starter Tarik Skubal is a bottom-of-the-rotation type starter. He's not in good form either with a 7.24 ERA in his last three starts. | |||||||
08-04-23 | Diamondbacks +119 v. Twins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
I see a wrong favorite here. The Diamondbacks have the better record, have the superior starting pitcher going and have a rested bullpen since they were idle on Thursday while the Twins weren't. Merrill Kelly is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA. He's been at his finest on the road and pitching at night. He's 6-1 with a 2.74 road ERA. His night ERA is 2.63. The Twins are going with Bailey Ober, who is off his worst start of the season. He was hammered by the Royals this past Saturday giving up six earned runs on 11 hits, including two homers, in four innings. The Royals rank second-to-last in the majors in runs. Ober may be hitting a wall as he's already thrown a career-high 98 innings. He pitched 56 innings last season. The Twins could be without their home run leader as Byron Buxton has missed the last two games due to a hamstring injury. | |||||||
08-04-23 | White Sox v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Playing the Guardians Under in their AL Central Division games this season has won 78 percent of the time going 25-7. I'm going to ride that trend in today's game. Neither team is very good offensively, nor in good scoring form. The White Sox rank 27th in runs and 28th in OPS. They are averaging one run in their last four games. Cleveland is last in the league in homers and ranks 25th in runs. The Guardians are averaging two runs per game during their last six games. White Sox starter Mike Clevinger just faced the Guardians this past Saturday and held them to two hits in five scoreless innings. He has a 2.91 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five career starts against the Guardians. Cleveland is starting promising rookie Logan Allen, who is averaging a strikeout per inning. | |||||||
08-04-23 | Sparks v. Mystics -3.5 | 77-79 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
These are the two hardest-hit injury teams in the WNBA. Washington still isn't going to have Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin, but I see the Mystics covering this number. The Mystics are 12-13. Los Angeles is 9-17 having lost 10 of its past 12 games. LA is 2-9 SU, 2-8-1 ATS on the road and this is a difficult away spot. The Sparks hosted the Liberty this past Tuesday. This is their first road contest since July 22 and it's a cross-country trip. Washington is below .500 for the first time this season. The Mystics have been idle since Sunday when they finished a three-game, five-day road trip going 0-3. They should be rested, prepared and motivated for this matchup. The Mystics are 8-4 at home. They have covered seven of their last eight home contests. | |||||||
08-03-23 | Dream v. Mercury +7.5 | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Phoenix is 6-19, tied for the worst record in the WNBA. Atlanta is a middle-level team. So the point spread may seem right. But I see this being a much closer game than the spread indicates. Four things give me optimism the Mercury can stay within this number: No. 1: The game is in Phoenix. The Mercury are dreadful on the road, but a respectable 6-7 at home. The Dream are playing at a different arena for the fourth time in a row. No. 2: Short revenge. The Dream defeated Phoenix, 78-65, when they hosted them on July 25. The Mercury made only 5-of-24 (21 percent) 3-pointers. Brittney Griner played in that game. She missed 12 of 19 shots from the field and had a point differential of minus 20. Griner won't play today. So that actually could be a positive given how poorly she played against the Dream in the previous meeting. No. 3: Phoenix has the better defensive number. The Mercury give up a point fewer per game than Atlanta. No. 4: The Diana Taurasi factor. The 41-year star guard remains a very good player and a fiery force. Taurasi is the league's all-time leading scorer. If she scores more than 18 points today, she'll pass 10,000 career points. Phoenix fans are aware of that and will be rooting hard for her. So the fans and team should very much be motivated. | |||||||
08-03-23 | Jets -125 v. Browns | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -125 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
The joy of having the NFL here is tempered by the history of how bad and boring the Hall of Fame game is. I usually pass on this game. But this year I see enough edges for the Jets to believe they beat the Browns. The Jets own a big quarterback advantage. The Browns are going to go with third-string QB Kellen Mond for the first half and fourth-string rookie fifth-round draft pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson for the second half. Mond is terrible and Thompson-Robinson isn't ready for the NFL. He's a long shot to make the team. Zach Wilson is expected to start for New York. Wilson has had it rough in the NFL, but he should shine lining up against reserves and against a work-in-progress Cleveland defense. The Jets have the stronger quarterback rotation with Wilson, Tim Boyle and Chris Streveler, the best running QB of the bunch. The Jets have had two weeks of training camp. The Browns have only had one full-scale practice session. The Jets have the deeper defensive roster. The Browns are learning a new defense under their first-year defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz. Asked where the new-look Browns defense stands right now, Schwartz said, ''That we're not ready yet.'' | |||||||
08-03-23 | Pirates v. Brewers -125 | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show | |
Mitch Keller is Pittsburgh's best starting pitcher. But he's been anything but an ace lately. The Pirates have lost Keller's past five starts. Keller has surrendered 21 runs in 28 2/3 innings during this span. Keller's ERA in his last three games is 8.65. Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser has a 4.13 home ERA compared to 4.66 on the road. More than the pitchers, this one comes down to price. Milwaukee is seven games above .500. Pittsburgh is 11 games below .500. The Brewers clearly are the better team. So the price is right to back Milwaukee, especially given Keller's poor current form. | |||||||
08-02-23 | Tigers -118 v. Pirates | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Not many pitchers would turn down a chance to go from the Tigers to the Dodgers. But Eduardo Rodriguez did. He used a no-trade clause in his contract to void a deal that would have sent him to the NL-West leading Dodgers. His Detroit teammates have to respect the heck out of him for doing that. I see the Tigers playing exceptionally hard here to support Rodriguez, who is a much better pitcher than Pittsburgh starter Osvaldo Bido. Rodriguez is 6-5 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The lefty has a 2.68 road ERA. The Pirates rank in the bottom-seven versus lefties in key batting categories, including batting average, slugging percentage and OPS. Bido has a 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. The Tigers were held to one run on Tuesday. But in their previous four games, they averaged five runs per game. | |||||||
08-01-23 | Dream +14.5 v. Aces | Top | 72-93 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 0 m | Show |
Atlanta hasn't been this large of an underdog all season. The Aces are having a record-breaking season, but this is too many points for them to lay. The Dream have picked up their game winning nine of their last 12. Like the Aces, they have star power with three All-Stars. Atlanta won't lack motivation. Las Vegas, on the other hand, is off a highly-satisfying 13-point home revenge win against Dallas this past Sunday. The Aces' next game is a marquee matchup on the road against New York, the other superpower in the WNBA. So this is a sandwich spot for the Aces, who once again will be without injured starter Candace Parker. The teams last met a month ago in Atlanta. The Dream covered for the fourth time in the last five meetings between the two teams. Las Vegas only was able to win, 92-87. | |||||||
08-01-23 | Phillies v. Marlins -123 | 3-1 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Sandy Alcantara hasn't lived up to last year's NL Cy Young Award season. Not even close. However, Alcantara has started to pitch better. He's coming off a five-hit, complete game, 7-1, win against the Rays this past Wednesday. Alcantara posted a 3.31 ERA in five July starts. I like Alcantara and the Marlins to beat the Phillies, who are starting southpaw Ranger Suarez. The Marlins lead the majors by a wide margin in batting average against left-handed pitching hitting .307. The Marlins also have the second-highest on base percentage versus southpaws and rank third against them in OPS. Suarez slipped badly in July posting a 6.11 ERA. The Marlins are getting healthy as both Jazz Chisholm and Avisail Garcia are back in their lineup. | |||||||
07-31-23 | Padres -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
It took to the end of July. But the Padres, with their $250 million payroll, finally showed something sweeping the Rangers three games at home. That puts San Diego five games out of a wildcard spot. It probably means the Padres won't be sellers before Tuesday's trade deadline. It also means the Padres will be taking this game very seriously since it's the day before the trade deadline. There's no reason the Padres shouldn't be riding their new-found momentum with a multiple-run road victory here, especially being assured of getting nine innings of at bats. The Rockies have the worst record in the National League. Colorado also just dealt two of its four best power hitters, C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk, for prospects. The Padres should score a boatload of runs going from Petco Park to Coors Field and drawing Austin Gomber, who has a 7.19 home ERA. Gomber has pitched 10 innings against the Padres this year and given up 10 runs. Underrated Seth Lugo draws the start for San Diego. Lugo is in good form giving up two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Lugo faced the Rockies once this season and held them to one run in seven innings. | |||||||
07-30-23 | Calgary +2.5 v. Montreal | Top | 18-25 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
There are three elite teams in the CFL - Toronto, BC and Winnipeg. The other six CFL teams are all below .500. Calgary is 2-4. Montreal is 2-3. The Stampeders have a higher ceiling than Montreal. Their won-lost record is a bit misleading with two of their losses coming to BC and Winnipeg. The other two defeats occurred in overtime by a combined five points. Montreal has lost three in a row. Those defeats were to Toronto, Winnipeg and BC by an average of 12.6 points. This really is a must-win spot for the Stampeders since their next four games are against Toronto, BC, Winnipeg and Toronto again. Calgary can't take a loss here to the Alouettes with that murderous schedule ahead of them. The Stampeders rank fifth in both offense and defense yardage. They are the fourth-highest scoring team. QB Jake Maier is off his finest game throwing for 450 yards and four TD's in a 43-41 overtime loss to Ottawa last week. I like the Stampeders to win the battle of the trenches in this one. The Alouettes have allowed a league-worst 26 sacks in just five games. Calgary has covered 75 percent of its last 21 road games going 15-5-1 ATS. | |||||||
07-30-23 | Mystics v. Dream -6.5 | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
Atlanta is several tiers below the elite teams of the WNBA, specifically the Aces, Liberty and Sun. But the Dream have been playing their best ball winning eight of their past 11 games. They are a tier ahead of the Mystics, who are having trouble competing given all of their injuries. Washington is 1-4 in its last five games. The Mystics have failed to cover in their last five road games. They continue to be without superstar Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins and Shakira Austin. Those are three of their top five scorers. They aren't likely to have Queen Egbo either after she hurt her ankle in Washington's last game. Egbo was a front-court rotation player hoping to provide rebounding and interior defense with Delle Donne and Austin out. | |||||||
07-30-23 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show | |
Cleveland's Aaron Civale could be the most below-the-radar pitcher this month. He is 2-0 with a 1.72 ERA in five July starts. Civale faces a White Sox lineup that has scored fewer than five runs in six of their last eight games. He's backed by a relief corps that has the second-lowest bullpen ERA in the majors. White Sox starter Michael Kopech has largely been a disappointment given his once high ceiling. However, he pitches better in day games and has a 3.05 ERA in seven career appearances versus Cleveland. He shut out the Guardians in seven innings, giving up only two hits, one walk and posting nine strikeouts when he faced them back on May 24. The Guardians are swinging cold bats managing just two runs during their past two games. They rank last in the league in homers and 24th in runs and OPS. | |||||||
07-30-23 | Lynx v. Sun -11.5 | 87-83 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
It's not the Aces, nor the Liberty, who have the best point spread record in the WNBA. It's the Sun. Connecticut is 14-9-1 (61 percent) ATS. The Sun are tied with the Liberty for the second-best record in the league at 18-6. The Sun are in a great spot to win big against visiting Minnesota. The Lynx are in a huge letdown spot after upsetting the Liberty, 88-83, as 13 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Friday. The Lynx also carry a high fatigue rating. This is their third game in five days. Connecticut, by contrast, has been idle since Tuesday. Minnesota is without its best player, All-Star Napheesa Collier. She leads the Lynx in scoring by a wide margin and in rebounding. The Sun have covered in six of their last seven games against Minnesota. They are 2-0 versus the Lynx this season winning both times on the road by five and 21 points in the last meeting. | |||||||
07-30-23 | Lynx v. Sun UNDER 160.5 | 87-83 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
The Lynx are going to have problems scoring against Connecticut, the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA. Minnesota is without its superstar, Napheesa Collier. She's the fourth-leading scorer in the league at 21.8 points. Minnesota is in action for the third time in five days. The Lynx are not going to push pace given their fatigue factor. They also play slower on the road. The Under has cashed in five of the Lynx's last seven away contests. Connecticut won't be taking Minnesota lightly knowing the Lynx just upset the Liberty in New York two days ago despite not having the injured Collier. | |||||||
07-29-23 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 10.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
These are two very strong offenses facing weak starting pitchers and burned-out bullpens. Reds starter Luke Weaver has a 7.20 ERA. Dodgers starter Emmet Sheehan has a 6.75 ERA, which goes up to 12.41 in his last three starts. The Reds are a top-nine scoring team. The Dodgers rank in the top-three in runs, homers and OPS. | |||||||
07-29-23 | Guardians -128 v. White Sox | 2-7 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 11 m | Show | |
The White Sox managed to halt a six-game losing streak against the Guardians last night. But I see Cleveland coming back to beat the White Sox today. The White Sox have gutted their pitching staff as they became sellers in anticipation of Tuesday's trade deadline. Mike Clevinger could come off the injured list to start for the White Sox for the first time since June 14. Chicago's bullpen, though, figures to get plenty of work and the White Sox no longer have Kendall Graveman, Reynaldo Lopez and Joe Kelly. The White Sox bullpen is inexperienced, untested and lacks a proven closer. Cleveland has lost 11 fewer games than the White Sox. The Guardians have promising rookie Logan Allen on the mound. He's 4-3 with a 3.39 ERA. He pitched twice against the White Sox back in May and posted a 3.09 ERA against them in 11 2/3 innings. | |||||||
07-29-23 | BC -7 v. Edmonton Elks | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
Even with backup QB Dane Evans, BC should beat winless Edmonton by more than a touchdown. The Elks have lost an unbelievable 20 straight home games, going 3-17 ATS in those games. The Lions are 5-1 this season. All of their victories have been by double-digits. Their average victory margin is 16.4 points. They have the No. 2 defense in the CFL. This includes a 22-0 victory against the Elks at home in Week 2. Edmonton has lost by double-digits when playing the elite teams of the CFL - Toronto, BC and Winnipeg. The Elks rank second-to-last in the league defensively. Evans won't have Dominique Rhymes, but he still has other good receivers in Keon Hatcher, Justin McInnis and Lucky Whitehead. The Lions are deep at receiver. Evans also should be able to rely on a ground attack. Edmonton has the worst run defense in the CFL. The Elks also have the worst offense in the league, ranking last in yards per game and scoring at 15 points per game. | |||||||
07-28-23 | Red Sox v. Giants -135 | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a strong bounce back effort from prideful Logan Webb today. Webb is off perhaps the worst start of his career. He was hammered for six runs in just 1 1/3 innings against the Nationals this past Saturday. Webb had a 1.59 ERA in his first three July starts before that outing. Webb is much better at home where his ERA is 2.02. This Boston's first road game since July 19. They lost their last away game to the lowly A's. | |||||||
07-28-23 | Twins v. Royals OVER 9.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
Since coming back from All-Star break, the Twins are averaging 5.9 runs in their last 13 games. Don't look for Royals starter Brady Singer to slow them down. Singer is one of the worst starting pitchers in the American League with a 5.55 ERA. Singer is 2-6 career-wise versus the Twins with a 6.15 ERA in 10 all-time starts against them. The Royals have the third-highest bullpen ERA at 5.17. Twins starter Sonny Gray began the season hot, but he's going through a rough stretch with a 6.62 ERA in his last three starts. Both offenses should be aided by the weather with the temperatures reaching close to 100 and the wind blowing out at 14-15 mph. | |||||||
07-28-23 | Mystics +9.5 v. Wings | 62-90 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
The Mystics are down three starters, including their superstar forward, Elena Delle Donne. But Washington has proven to be spunky and resilient. The Mystics have lost by more than nine points only once in their last 14 games. Washington has covered each of the past four times following a loss. Dallas also lost in its last game, 88-83 at home to Connecticut. That halted the Wings' five-game win streak. The Wings showed in that loss they are not among the elite teams in the WNBA. The Wings may have lost their mojo in that defeat. They also have a huge look-ahead game up next playing the Aces in Las Vegas on Sunday. Washington is the better defensive team, giving up three fewer points per game than the Wings. | |||||||
07-28-23 | Tigers v. Marlins -144 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Bad spot for the Tigers, who just dropped a doubleheader at home and had to travel to Florida. The Marlins, by contrast, were idle Thursday. Detroit has one of the weakest offenses in baseball ranking in the bottom-three in runs, batting average and OPS. The Marlins have been tough at home with 31-20 record. Braxton Garrett should have a bounce-back effort facing this Tigers lineup. Miami is 14-5 in Garrett's starts this season. Tigers starter Reese Olson is 1-4 with a 4.53 ERA. The Marlins got a much-needed boost when they beat the Rays, 7-1, two days ago in their last game. | |||||||
07-27-23 | Guardians v. White Sox UNDER 8.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Two good starting pitchers. Two weak offenses. So I don't see these teams combining for more than eight runs. Rookie Tanner Bibee has been outstanding in his four July starts going 2-0 with a 1.14 ERA. He's backed by a Cleveland bullpen that has the second-lowest ERA in baseball. The White Sox have never faced Bibee. Chicago has a below average offense. Dylan Cease is the White Sox's best pitcher and a top-12 strikeout pitcher. Cease has allowed just two runs during his last two starts. He goes against a Cleveland offense that ranks last in homers and 24th both in runs and OPS. A slight wind of 4-to-6 mph will be blowing in. | |||||||
07-27-23 | Dream v. Liberty OVER 173.5 | Top | 84-95 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
Atlanta has gone Under the total in each of its last seven games. But I see this game going Over. One reason for this is the caliber of competition. Against their last 10 opponents, the Dream have gone against a bottom-six offense nine times. The last time the Dream met a top-five offense was a dozen games ago. That was against this opponent - the Liberty. New York scored a season-high 110 points in a 30-point road victory against Atlanta. There were a combined 190 points scored in that game. The Liberty is the second-highest scoring team in the WNBA. They are averaging 92.7 points in their last four games. The Liberty is off a sloppy, narrow home win against a bad Seattle team this past Tuesday. So they should be in a high-scoring, motivated mood. The Dream is the fourth-highest scoring team in the league. They have three All-Stars who would especially like to shine playing in New York, the media capital. I don't expect the Dream to shy away. They won't slow tempo. The Liberty have huge star power led by superstars Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu, who is coming off a 2-for-14 shooting performance against Seattle. Expect a much better shooting and scoring game for her. Atlanta ranks ninth in scoring defense. | |||||||
07-26-23 | Mystics v. Lynx UNDER 161.5 | 92-97 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
The teams met early last month. Minnesota nipped the Mystics, 80-78. It was the fifth straight time in the series that the Under won. I envision another Under today. The Mystics continue to play short-handed without two-time WNBA MVP Elena Delle Donne, streak-shooting Ariel Atkins and inside presence Shakira Austin. That's a lot of missing firepower. Minnesota is averaging 73.5 points in its last five games. The Lynx are facing a Mystics defense that ranks in the top-three. The pace should be slow. | |||||||
07-26-23 | Orioles +101 v. Phillies | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Orioles have the second-best record in baseball with a .614 winning percentage. Maybe the oddsmaker forgot about that. Because Baltimore opened an underdog to the Phillies in a pitching matchup of Kyle Bradish versus lefty Ranger Suarez. I'm not going to turn down the Orioles. They have the most road victories in baseball and also the best record in the league against southpaws. Bradish also is a better pitcher than Suarez and Baltimore owns the superior bullpen. The Orioles are 32-19 away from home. They are 23-10 against left-handed starters. Bradish remains below-the-radar. He's allowed two earned runs or fewer in his last seven starts. He has a 0.93 ERA in his last three starts. Baltimore's bullpen has the fifth-lowest ERA in the majors. Suarez is in terrible form giving up 15 earned in his last four starts spanning 22 innings. He's permitted 33 hits and 13 walks during this time frame. Wrong team favored. | |||||||
07-26-23 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks -136 | 11-7 | Loss | -136 | 5 h 51 m | Show | |
In Zac Gallen I trust, especially when he's pitching at home. Gallen is 9-0 with a 1.48 ERA in his home starts this season. The Cardinals are one of the biggest underachieving teams. They are 12 games below .500. Arizona, by contrast, is eight games above .500. Jack Flaherty gets the start for St. Louis. He's not the same elite pitcher he was before injuries took a toll. Flaherty is 7-6 with a 4.39 ERA. This is a day game. Flaherty's day time ERA is even worse at 5.66. | |||||||
07-25-23 | Blue Jays v. Dodgers -138 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Rarely do the Dodgers lose back-to-back home games. You have to go back to June 18 to find the last time that happened. Look for LA to bounce back after a 6-3 extra inning loss to Toronto last night. The Dodgers are 29-17 at home. They have Julio Urias, last year's ERA champion, on the mound. Urias is bouncing back from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for six weeks. He was shelled by the Orioles in his last start. Prior to that, however, Urias had allowed only two earned runs in his previous two starts spanning 12 innings with a 15-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Blue Jays have never faced Urias so Urias has a surprise element in his favor. Toronto starter Chris Bassitt has pitched much worse on the road this season where his ERA is 5.81. | |||||||
07-25-23 | Fever v. Sparks -145 | 78-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
Los Angeles is 0-8, 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games. Yet the Sparks are favored against Indiana. What does that tell you? It tells me that the Sparks are the correct side. I see the Sparks halting their losing streak here against the Fever, who have a worse overall record than Los Angeles and are 1-9 in their last 10 games. The Sparks have played six of their past eight games on the road. They've been hard hit by injuries. But now the Sparks have gotten healthier. Both Lexie Brown and Layshia Clarendon are back for Los Angeles. Brown is the team's No. 2 scorer, while Clarendon is second on the team in assists. The Fever ranks with Seattle as having the worst defense in the WNBA giving up 86.2 points per game. Indiana has failed to cover in four of its last five visits to LA. | |||||||
07-25-23 | Mets -116 v. Yankees | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
I could understand Justin Verlander being priced this low if the Yankees were any good. But they are not. The Yankees are just 14-17 in their last 31 games and their record would be even worse if they didn't just sweep the pathetic Royals three games at home. During their past 31 games, the Yankees have played 39 percent of their games against the Royals, Rockies, Cardinals and A's. Those four teams have a combined mark of 141-263. It's obvious the Yankees are much worse without Aaron Judge. The Mets also are just 14-17 in their last 31 games. But they are 3-1 in Verlander's last four starts. They also beat the Yankees when future Hall-of-Famer Verlander last pitched against them on June 14. Verlander gave up one run to the Yankees on three hits in six innings in that game. Verlander has surrendered three runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts. He held the White Sox to one run on three hits in eight innings during his last start this past Wednesday. He is 9-7 with a 3.37 ERA in 24 career starts against the Yankees. Domingo German goes for the Yankees. He pitched a perfect game against the A's in Oakland on June 28. But he's a mediocre pitcher. Since then, he's 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA in three starts. On the season, German is 5-6 with a 4.52 ERA. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,060 |
Dan Kaiser | $932 |
Jesse Schule | $566 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Ray Monohan | $518 |
Mike Lundin | $493 |
Tom Macrina | $430 |
Marc Lawrence | $400 |
Joseph D'Amico | $390 |
Big Al McMordie | $340 |