Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-06-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -6.5 | 136-141 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
I find this line to be short. The 76ers are 6-1 - the best record in the NBA - and at this early stage could be the best, or second-best, team in the Eastern Conference. Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are all playing at high levels. Newcomer Seth Curry has upgraded the 76ers' perimeter game, making Embiid even more effective. The Wizards have won two in a row after opening the season 0-5. Russell Westbrook makes Washington look better on paper. But I'm not sold. One of Washington's victories came against 2-5 Minnesota, which was missing its best player, Karl-Anthony Towns. Washington still hasn't made defensive progress ranking second-to-last in points allowed per game. The 76ers give up 19 fewer points per game than the Wizards. Then there is Philly's dominant home-court advantage. The 76ers have won 19 in a row at home. They are 9-2 ATS the last 11 times as home favorites. Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last five visits to Philadelphia. | |||||||
01-06-21 | Virginia Tech v. Louisville -4 | 71-73 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show | |
Death, taxes and Louisville defeating Virginia Tech. The Cardinals have beaten Virginia Tech 16 straight times. Look for that streak to continue. Louisville is 5-0 at home. The Cardinals are playing well and have the shooters to take advantage of the Hokies' below-average 3-point defense. Virginia Tech hasn't played in more than a week because it's scheduled game against Virginia for this past Saturday was postponed because of COVID-19 issues on the Cavaliers' side. Not only will the Hokies be rusty, but this is their first game away from Blacksburg since Nov. 29 and first true road game. They've played seven of their nine games at home with the other two being at neutral sites. Virginia Tech has failed to cover in six of its past seven away matchups. | |||||||
01-05-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +9 | Top | 94-92 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
The Grizzlies' injury list is a long one - Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Justice Winslow and John Konchar. Morant and Jackson are the Grizzlies' two best players. So why get involved with the Grizzlies? Situation. It sets up well for Memphis plus the Grizzlies are getting reinforcements. This is the Lakers' fourth road game in seven days. The Lakers have won the three previous ones, including defeating the Grizzlies, 108-94, two days ago. The Lakers return to LA following this matchup to host the Spurs on Thursday. A letdown, lack of concentration and this being a rest stop all work against the Lakers in this spot. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, have short home revenge. Memphis was hanging in with LA this past Sunday trailing by only two points entering the fourth quarter before falling apart. The Lakers shot 19 free throws to the Grizzlies' eight in that game. So there could be an officiating adjustment to that free throw disparity in this game. Memphis isn't some bottom-feeder even without Morant and Jackson. The Grizzlies nearly made the postseason in the highly competitive Western Conference last season falling to Portland by four points in the play-in game. Jonas Valanciunas is a quality big man and Kyle Anderson is playing well. Key reserve De'Anthony Melton is available now after getting clearance from COVID-19 protocols. The Grizzlies also get Grayson Allen back from an ankle injury and signed Tim Frazier. Allen and Frazier provide needed backcourt depth. | |||||||
01-05-21 | Florida +2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 71-86 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
The last time I got involved in a Florida basketball game was taking 3 points with the Gators on the road against Florida State back on Dec. 12. Things looked good for Florida early. The Gators were leading the Seminoles, 11-3, when Florida State called a time-out. It was at that point Keyontae Johnson, the Gators' star player and preseason pick for SEC Player of the Year honors, collapsed on the court. The Gators obviously were shaken as Johnson was taken to the hospital. They went on to lose, 83-71. Johnson was hospitalized for 10 days. Florida postponed its next four games. Johnson is back with the Gators, although he's not playing. He's helping coach the team. The Gators have played twice since Johnson's collapse beating Vanderbilt, 90-72, on the road and nipped LSU, 83-79, at home this past Saturday. So Florida knows first-hand about adversity this season. The Gators have regained their focus. They can beat Alabama on the road. The Crimson Tide are coming off a huge road win against seventh-ranked Tennessee from this past Saturday night. Alabama beat Tennessee, 71-63, as 10 1/2-point 'dogs. It was the Crimson Tide's first road victory versus a top-10 team in 16 years. So there could be a letdown factor for Alabama even though this is an important SEC battle. | |||||||
01-04-21 | Pacers +1.5 v. Pelicans | 118-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The Pelicans are a work-in-progress under new coach Stan Van Gundy. Their defense already appears improved - which wasn't a high bar to overcome - but their offense sometimes becomes too reliant on Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. So this should be a good matchup for the Pacers. They also have a new coach, Nate Bjorkgren. Indiana remains scrappy, but the Pacers have become much more of a 3-point shooting team under Bjorkgren. They've have time now to adjust to the loss of forward T.J. Warren, who is out following foot surgery. The Pacers are off a frustrating 106-102 loss to the Knicks from Saturday. The Pelicans defeated the Raptors, 120-116, also on Saturday. That was a highly satisfying victory for the Pelicans. | |||||||
01-04-21 | Celtics v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 126-114 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Both teams have many kinks to work out during this early part of the season. But Toronto has playoff revenge after being eliminated by Boston in the second round of the playoffs. The Raptors are getting more used to their temporary Tampa home and draw the Celtics in a brutal situational spot. This is the Celtics' second consecutive game and fifth in seven days. Toronto still is playing strong defense ranking No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. Nick Nurse is one of the few coaches who is at the level of Brad Stevens. | |||||||
01-04-21 | Cavs v. Magic -5 | 83-103 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Orlando is a team I'm usually more comfortable taking points with rather than laying. But I see this as a good spot for the Magic. The Magic look much improved. They opened 4-0, but then lost to the 76ers. No shame in that. The 76ers have the best record in the NBA at 5-1. But then the Magic lost 108-99 at home this past Saturday to rebuilding Oklahoma City. The Magic missed 20 of 28 shots from the floor in the fourth quarter. Many of these shots were easy and open looks. It was an extremely frustrating defeat for the Magic. Orlando is anxious to get back on track and is pointing to this matchup. The Magic swept all three meetings from Cleveland last season and are 7-3 ATS during their past 10 games versus the Cavaliers. They catch the Cavaliers off a satisfying 96-91 upset victory against the Hawks from two days ago. | |||||||
01-03-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 218 | Top | 112-107 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Maybe it shouldn't be too shocking that the Suns are tied with the top record in the NBA at 5-1. They were the best team in the Orlando bubble last season winning all eight of their games. The Suns are winning with defense. They are giving up the fewest points per game in the NBA at 98.7. Phoenix has been even stingier in its last four games holding foes to 96 points per contest. The oddsmaker and marketplace have been slow to adjust. Phoenix has gone Under in every one of its games. The important matter here is have the proper totals adjustment on Phoenix finally been made? I say it still hasn't. This total is too high. Both the Clippers and Suns are slow-paced teams. The Clippers will be looking to pound the Suns inside in a deliberate, time-consuming matter. Superstar Kawhi Leonard is bothered by wearing a face mask, something he has to do for the time being after suffering a deep cut near his mouth a few games ago. LA was just held to 100 points on the road against the Jazz in its last game this past Friday. Chris Paul is running the show in Phoenix, which has meant a slower tempo. That's helped keep Phoenix's scores down, too. The average combined score in Phoenix games this season is 206.6 points. Not once has there been more than 216 points scored in any of the Suns' games. The Clippers should have their defensive intensity up for this game coming off a 106-100 road loss to Utah and realizing how improved Phoenix is. Leonard and Paul George are excellent defenders in addition to being high scorers. Patrick Beverley is a superb defender, too. LA ranks 11th in scoring defense. If you discount a freakish 124-73 loss to Dallas, the Clippers would be giving up 105.8 points per game instead of 108.8. That lower figure would have them ranked seventh in the league defensively. | |||||||
01-03-21 | UMKC +3.5 v. North Dakota | 77-53 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
These teams met on Saturday with North Dakota winning, 52-45. I can envision another low-scoring game so I'll take the points in this quick revenge setup. UMKC shot 35 percent from the floor, made 2 of 12 3-pointers and missed 7 of 14 free throws against North Dakota. The Roos on the season average 76.9 points, shoot 53.5 percent from the floor and make 57.3 percent of their free throws. This has come against inferior competition. But the Roos still should shoot much better in this rematch. North Dakota only averages 61 points on the season. The Fighting Hawks shoot 40.8 percent (286nd in the nation) from the floor and hit 28.3 percent (300th) of their 3-point shots. So they aren't a very good offensive team. They aren't very good at all being 2-8. They also got to shoot 29 free throws to UMKC's 14 on Saturday. Kansas City is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 road games. North Dakota is 2-7 ATS following a win. | |||||||
01-02-21 | Cavs +7 v. Hawks | Top | 96-91 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Hawks look improved. But so do the 3-2 Cavaliers, who catch the Hawks in a letdown spot and carrying a high fatigue rating. Atlanta is coming off a satisfying 114-96 revenge victory against the Nets on the road Friday night. Brooklyn had nipped the Hawks in a wild 145-141 game on Wednesday in which Atlanta blew a late lead. So now the Hawks come home to Atlanta where they find the Cavaliers waiting for them. Cleveland should have its intensity up after consecutive losses to the Knicks and Pacers on Thursday. The Cavaliers had opened with three straight victories before these two setbacks. That was their best start in five years. Both defeats are humbling to the Cavaliers, who fell 95-86 to the Knicks and 119-99 to Indiana. I'm looking for Cleveland to bounce back in this spot. The Cavaliers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games going back to last season and also have covered seven of the past 10 times versus the Hawks in Atlanta. The Hawks are 3-9 ATS the last 12 times when playing without rest. This is their third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Hawks could be missing a pair of veterans. Rajon Rondo missed last night's game with a sore knee and sharpshooter Danilo Gallinari has been out with an ankle injury. Keep an eye on Hawks star Trae Young, who has been dealing with a sore calf. | |||||||
01-02-21 | Marshall -115 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 80-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
I see Marshall getting revenge on Louisiana Tech after losing, 75-68, to the Bulldogs on New Year's Day. The Thunder Herd shot just 39 percent from the floor and connected on 10 of 15 free throws for 67 percent. Marshall shoots 76 percent for the season from the foul line, which ranks 34th. Louisiana Tech, by contrast, sank 47 percent of its field goals and got to shoot 11 more free throws than Marshall. Marshall has a size edge on Louisiana Tech and has covered seven of its last 11 games. The Thunder Herd outscore the Bulldogs by six points on the season. | |||||||
01-01-21 | Celtics v. Pistons +10 | Top | 93-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Even with the regular season reduced from 82 to 72 games, elite teams such as Boston seek rest stops on its schedule. One such rest spot is today's game at Detroit against the 0-4 Pistons. The Celtics are coming off consecutive victories beating the Pacers on the road Tuesday and cruising past the short-handed Grizzlies at home on Wednesday. This marks the Celtics' fourth game in six days. The Pistons, by contrast, have been idle the past two days having last played on Tuesday.The Pistons aren't likely to have Blake Griffin, who is in the league's concussion protocol. Rookie point guard Killian Hayes probably is out, too. I'd rather have Hayes out since he's a work-in-progress for the rebuilding Pistons. This might mean giving more minutes to veteran Derrick Rose. It's a bonus if Griffin plays because I like the Pistons in this spot regardless if Griffin plays or sits. The Pistons have hung around in their games. They should have defeated the improved Cavaliers blowing a late lead and losing in overtime. Dwane Casey is a solid coach and the Pistons have been getting strong play from a couple of unsung players, Jerami Grant and Josh Jackson. Boston isn't motivated to run up a score since the teams play again on Sunday and the Celtics don't want to provide the Pistons with any extra motivation. | |||||||
01-01-21 | Arkansas State +3 v. Louisiana-Monroe | 72-84 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
Arkansas State should be able to pull the outright upset with a decent frontcourt and UL Monroe's lack of scoring. The Warhawks average just 63.6 points per game, which ranks 301st in the country. Arkansas State has played weak competition, but the Red Wolves average nearly 13 points more per contest than Louisiana Monroe. The Warhawks were bad last season especially on the offensive side and they are bad again this season shooting 39.5 percent from the field, which ranks 302nd. | |||||||
01-01-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International -120 | 67-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
It shouldn't be asking too much of Florida International to just win this game. The Panthers are playing well and are 5-1 at home. They have a very good point guard in Antonio Daye Jr., who is averaging 19.4 points and 6.6 assists. Old Dominion is 1-5 ATS in its last six road contests. The Monarchs are scoring 17 points fewer per game than Florida International. | |||||||
01-01-21 | Wright State v. Oakland OVER 149 | 90-51 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
When Oakland is in action, my first look always is to the Over. The matchup and betting line make Over a right play here. Oakland is a terrible defensive team. The Grizzlies give up 85.5 points a game, which ranks 327nd. They also are 326nd in defensive field goal percentage as opponents have made 50 percent of their field goals against them. Wright State has the offense to take advantage, which is why the Raiders are such a heavy road favorite. Wright State averages 79.3 points and rates 30th in field goal percentage. The Raiders like to push pace, which is OK by Oakland. The Over is 6-1 in the Raiders' last seven road contests. Oakland's scoring has picked up. The Grizzlies have produced at least 72 points in each of their last six games. The Over has cashed in eight of their past nine games. The teams met twice last season and the combined total was 159.5 points. | |||||||
12-31-20 | Northern Arizona v. Idaho +3.5 | 78-65 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a bad versus bad Big Sky Conference matchup. So backing the home underdog makes sense especially given the situation and style of play. Northern Arizona is 1-6. The Lumberjacks play slow, are weak inside and can't shoot from the outside. Not exactly a good combination. They average just 58.6 points. So how bad is Idaho to be a home 'dog to this opponent? The Vandals are 0-5. But all of their games have been on the road. This is their first home game and it comes on New Year's Eve. That's certainly not a fun travel date for Northern Arizona. Idaho is the better defensive team. The Vandals also are a much better 3-point shooting team ranking 104th in 3-point percentage at 35.8 percent. The Lumberjacks are 319th in 3-point shooting percentage hitting 26.5 percent from beyond the arc. Idaho has more size than Northern Arizona. I realize nobody cares about this game, including the oddsmaker. But value is value and I don't see why Idaho should be an underdog here. | |||||||
12-31-20 | Knicks v. Raptors -9 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
At 0-3, the Raptors are approaching this matchup with a great deal of urgency. I expect a circle-the-wagons type of performance from Toronto. If opponents treat the Knicks seriously then New York is in trouble. The Raptors won't be taking the 2-2 Knicks lightly even though they've defeated New York eight straight times. The Knicks have shown early improvement under Tom Thibodeau. They may not be quite the laughing stock of the past few seasons, but they still are a bottom-feeder. Toronto led the 76ers by 14 points in the second half during its last game two days ago. But the Raptors lost. The last time Toronto opened so poorly was 15 years ago. The Knicks's bench is extremely banged-up especially in the backcourt. Austin Rivers may be able to return from a groin injury that has kept him out, but Frank Ntiliikna and Dennis Smith are sidelined. Shooting guard Alec Burks, the Knicks' second-leading scorer, is questionable with an ankle injury. | |||||||
12-30-20 | Portland +4.5 v. Seattle University | Top | 68-84 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
Seattle beat Portland in its season opener coming back from an eight-point halftime deficit. Portland was a 2 1/2-point home favorite in that game. The oddsmaker had it right. The Pilots are the better team. I believe the Pilots still are the superior team. They've gone 6-1 since that loss and have played a stronger schedule than Seattle. The Redhawks are 5-5 and have only two wins versus Division I teams - against Portland and Air Force. The difference could come at the free throw line where Portland ranks 20th in the nation sinking 77.8 percent. Seattle makes less than 69 percent of its free throws. | |||||||
12-30-20 | Hornets +8 v. Mavs | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Most NBA teams have certain tendencies. Charlotte usually is tough as an underdog. The Hornets are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times catching points. They just knocked off the Nets, 106-104, as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. Dallas is good as an underdog, not so good as a home favorite and not very trustworthy following a victory. The Mavericks are coming off an historic, 124-73, road victory against the Clippers this past Sunday in which they led by an NBA-record 50 points at halftime. Now the Mavericks are playing their first home contest of the season after consecutive road games versus the much-improved Suns, defending world champion Lakers and Clippers. Dallas hosts Eastern Conference champion Miami on Friday. In between all of this is this game against the lowly Hornets. So the Mavericks' intensity and concentration level figures to be down. Dallas has covered just 29 percent of the time following a victory during the past 30 instances. Charlotte has some confidence following its victory against Brooklyn. The Hornets should get better as the season progresses integrating two significant newcomers, free agent Gordon Hayward and third overall draft pick LaMelo Ball. The timing of this matchup should result in a closer than expected contest. | |||||||
12-30-20 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +4 | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
Since opening with a four-overtime loss to Georgia State and a defeat to Mercer, Georgia Tech has gone 4-1 posting victories against Kentucky, Nebraska, Florida A&M and Delaware State. The Yellow Jackets are one of the most experienced teams in the country with four seniors and a junior composing their starting lineup. Each of Georgia Tech's starters average double figures in scoring. It's the reason why Georgia Tech ranks third in the ACC in scoring at 82.7 points. Georgia Tech doesn't have a long bench. But this spot sets up well for the Yellow Jackets' starters to play huge minutes. Georgia Tech hasn't played in 10 days and won't be in action again for another three days. North Carolina has been very uneven this season. The Tar Heels have trailed by double-digits in six of their eight games. | |||||||
12-30-20 | Western Carolina +4 v. East Tennessee State | 78-86 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
This has been a road team series with the visitor covering six of the last seven. I see that trend continuing. Western Carolina is 7-2. The two losses the Catamounts suffered were to Troy and VCU, two solid opponents. East Tennessee State hasn't played that tough of a schdule. The Bucs are 4-4 and in rebuilt mode having lost their coach and all five starters from last season. The Catamounts have too much scoring for East Tennessee State averaging 84 points while shooting 47.5 percent from the floor. An outright victory would not surprise in the least. | |||||||
12-29-20 | Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 223.5 | Top | 86-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
It's easy to think of a high-scoring game in a Pelicans-Suns matchup. Devin Booker, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram. These are all big-name scorers. But so far these two teams have shown drastic defensive improvement. How much? New Orleans gives up the fewest points per game in the NBA and the Suns allow the second-fewest points in the league. Shocking, I know. The Pelicans' defensive improvement is not an early season fluke. New Orleans is better coached and stressing defense under new coach Stan Van Gundy. The Pelicans have slowed down their pace from last season when Alvin Gentry was their coach. The Suns are a work-in-progress with many new faces, including point guard Chris Paul. Part of why the Suns' defense is better is because their offense is slower tempo now with Paul running things. | |||||||
12-29-20 | Northeastern +18.5 v. West Virginia | 51-73 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
West Virginia was supposed to host Buffalo today, but COVID-19 issues forced the Bulls to cancel. Instead the Mountaineers get Northeastern, a 1-4 team from the Colonial Athletic Association. Easy win for West Virginia, right? The oddsmaker sure thinks so with this large point spread. In my view, it's too big of a number. This is a combination of West Virginia being in a look-ahead spot and Northeastern being better than perceived. The Mountaineers open their Big 12 season following this game. Oklahoma looms on deck. So there's no reason for Bob Huggins to go all out against this non-league foe when he takes the big picture into account. The Huskies split against UMass. They also covered road games versus Syracuse and Old Dominion. The Huskies were leading Georgia by 15 points in the second half as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs in their last game before going frigid and falling, 76-58. Bottom line, I see Northeastern being a tougher out than this point spread indicates. | |||||||
12-28-20 | Pistons +9.5 v. Hawks | Top | 120-128 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
Atlanta is 2-0 with a pair of road wins. But before rushing off to claim how good the Hawks have become, do realize a couple of things: Those victories have been against winless Memphis and winless Chicago, who right now is the worst team in the NBA. Trae Young is shooting 55.6 percent from the floor. Young is an emerging superstar, but he's not nearly that accurate from the floor. He shot 43.7 percent last season from the field. The Pistons should have defeated the Cavaliers in their last game this past Saturday, but lost in double-overtime after leading by eight with three minutes left. Detroit has enjoyed recent success against Atlanta. The Pistons are 4-2 in their last six games against the Hawks, including winning the most recent time. That was a 136-103 blowout victory in Atlanta last January. The Hawks have a number of injured players, including center Clint Capela. Atlanta plays at the Nets on Wednesday. So it's not inconceivable that the Hawks may be looking past the Pistons to a much bigger game. The Hawks aren't good enough to do that and cover a spread this large. | |||||||
12-28-20 | NJIT +12 v. Vermont | Top | 81-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
I'm attracted to the underdog in this America East Conference matchup. The teams just played each other on Sunday and Vermont won, 92-78. So this is the shortest of revenge spots for NJIT. The Highlanders have the best player on the court in Zach Cooks. He made just 7 of 18 shots from the field, though, on Sunday. I expect the Highlanders to shoot better as a team and for Vermont to shoot much worse. Each team averages 73 points a game. NJIT made just 36 percent of its field goal attempts and was 6-of-25 from 3-point range in yesterday's game, while Vermont hit 56 percent of its shots from the floor and made 12 of 23 3-pointers. I see the rematch being much closer. | |||||||
12-27-20 | Warriors -3 v. Bulls | 129-128 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Both Golden State and Chicago are 0-2. All of these losses were by blowouts, too. But there's a major difference. The Warriors were buried by the Bucks and Nets, probably the two best teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls lost big to the Pacers and Hawks. Billy Donovan certainly has his work cut out for him in his first season as Bulls coach. Chicago surrendered 124 points to the Hawks and 125 to the Pacers. Defense is a real problem for the Bulls. The loss to the Pacers came on Saturday. The Warriors are the more rested team having last played on Friday. Center James Wiseman, the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, already is displaying his potential scoring 18 and 19 points, respectively, during his first two NBA games. Stephen Curry gives the Warriors the best player on the court by far and there's a good chance Draymond Green makes his season debut here for the Warriors. Big coaching edge, too, for the Warriors right now with Steve Kerr against Donovan. | |||||||
12-27-20 | 76ers -6 v. Cavs | 94-118 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
The 76ers were one of the worst road teams in the league last season going 10-24 before entering bubble play. Philadelphia is at least two levels higher than Cleveland. But dare we trust the 76ers to cover this mid-sized number on the road? The answer is yes. The 76ers are in a good early place right now under new coach Doc Rivers, with Ben Simmons healthy and added perimeter shooters to take the double-team pressure off Joel Embiid. These elements all were in play when the 76ers rolled past the Knicks, 109-89, at Madison Square Garden on Saturday. Because of the blowout, Embiid got to rest for much of the second half playing less than 31 minutes. The Cavaliers also played on Saturday. They went double overtime to beat the Pistons, 128-119, in Detroit. Cleveland opened its season with a win against the Hornets. So the Cavaliers are in a rare fat and happy mood. They had four starters log more than 41 minutes against the Pistons. Kevin Love returned from a calf injury that kept him out of the Hornets game to play more than 37 minutes. So his minutes could be limited. | |||||||
12-27-20 | Drake -3 v. Indiana State | 81-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Drake is 9-0. The Bulldogs have played seven lined games - and covered every one of them. This is a good matchup for the Bulldogs so I'm going to ride their unbeaten streak. Drake is consistent on both ends of the floor ranking 26th in scoring and 26th in defensive scoring. The Bulldogs also have the eighth-highest field goal percentage in the country. Roman Penn gives them the best point guard on the floor in this matchup. Drake has held its last eight opponents to 67 or fewer points. Indiana State is a perimeter shooting team. The Sycamores, though, are not a good shooting team ranking 255th in field goal percentage and 319th in 3-point shooting. Their defense is even worse. They rank 282th in defensive field goal percentage and 299th in 3-point defense. | |||||||
12-26-20 | Raptors -109 v. Spurs | 114-119 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
Too much emphasis is being put on these two team's opening game. The Spurs were sharp in their first game beating Memphis, 131-119, on the road this past Wednesday. The Raptors were embarrassed, 113-99, by the Pelicans in their opener. This doesn't change the fact that the Raptors are a much better team than the Spurs. Toronto was the top defensive team in the league last season. The Raptors also tied with the Lakers for the best road mark in the NBA last season at 27-9. Toronto is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 away contests. | |||||||
12-26-20 | Pacers -4.5 v. Bulls | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
Maybe the Bulls will be better under their new coach, Billy Donovan. But that time isn't now. Chicago was horrendous in its opening game surrendering 83 points in the first half of a 124-104 home loss to the Hawks. The Bulls are brutal as home 'dogs failing to cover 24 of the past 33 times in that role. Indiana has been very strong as road chalk going 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times when favored on the road. The Pacers have reached the playoffs each of the past four seasons. The Bulls last made the postseason in 2017. Nate Bjorkgren had a successful Indiana coaching debut this past Wednesday. The Pacers took care of business with a 121-107 home win against the Knicks. Now Indiana draws another Eastern Conference bottom feeder. I don't see the Bulls doing any better than the Knicks did against the Pacers especially with Victor Oladipo finally appearing fully healthy. | |||||||
12-26-20 | Robert Morris +3.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 102-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
I'm not buying Purdue Fort Wayne being better than Robert Brown. The Mastodons have failed to cover the last six times they've been a home favorite and home-court doesn't mean as much this season with limited or no fans in the stands. Robert Morris went 20-14 last season while capturing the NEC championship. The Colonials could have the best player on the court in AJ Bramah, who averages 18.7 points and seven rebounds a game. The Colonials have covered six of the last seven times they've been an underdog. | |||||||
12-26-20 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -114 | 122-112 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 43 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies want to get things right after losing, 131-119, at home to the Spurs as short favorites in their opener this past Wednesday. Memphis catches Atlanta a bit fat after the Hawks rolled past the Bulls, 124-104, on the road in their Wednesday opening game. The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points. They also draw the Hawks dealing with multiple injuries. Atlanta is down point guards Rajon Rondo and Kris Dunn. The Hawks also could be without sharp-shooting forward Danilo Gallinari and center Clint Capela. Both are doubtful. Memphis had no problem handling the Hawks last season winning by 39 and 17 points, respectively. Ja Mortant had big games against the Hawks and already looks in great form scoring 44 points in this season's opener. Center Jonas Valanciunas is another matchup problem for Atlanta. Valanciunas is in line for another big performance especially if Capela can't play due to an Achilles injury. | |||||||
12-25-20 | Nets -3 v. Celtics | 123-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
I consider the Nets a level higher than Boston given a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant while Boston no longer has Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker is out. Early money in the marketplace agrees as the Nets have been pushed up to this point spread range. It's justified. The Nets are the better team and they want to make an early statement in proof of that. This is their chance being on national TV on Christmas Day. The Nets haven't played on Christmas Day since 2013. This also is Irving's first regular season game against his former team. Brooklyn built a 38-point lead against Golden State in its opener this past Tuesday, winning 125-99. The takeaways from that game were not just Irving and Durant looking good, but that the Nets had 28 fast-break points, seven blocks and 11 steals. The Celtics pulled off a dramatic, 122-121, home win against the defending Eastern Conference champion Bucks this past Wednesday. I see the Nets not just as the more talented team, but also the more motivated. They also have the deeper bench. | |||||||
12-25-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State UNDER 140.5 | 85-76 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
The teams split their two meetings last season. There were a combined 122 and 127 points scored in those games. Expect a similar low-scoring matchup again in today's matchup. Neither team is used to playing on Christmas Day. This is a very early start time, too. The game is being nationally televised and there will be fans in the stand. I consider all of these factors as additional pluses for an Under. Wisconsin is the top defensive team in the Big Ten. The Badgers give up 57.5 points, which is the 14th stingiest defense in the nation. The Badgers have excellent size up front. So I don't see the Spartans getting many second-chance opportunities. The Spartans' leading scorer, Joey Hauser, also is dealing with a sore knee. Michigan State should play with tremendous defensive intensity following a lackluster, 79-65, road loss to Northwestern to open its Big 10 season this past Sunday. Tom Izzo called that game one of the worst of his 26 seasons coaching. | |||||||
12-23-20 | Mavs +1 v. Suns | 102-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
The Suns were great in the bubble to finish last season. But I don't consider them a better team than the Mavericks. Dallas is a very strong road club. The Mavericks won 23 of 37 away games last season. The Mavericks have the superior coach in Rick Carlisle, have better continuity and a deeper roster. This is the Suns' first game with new point guard Chris Paul, and he's not at 100 percent due to an ankle injury. The Suns also won't have injured Dario Saric. | |||||||
12-23-20 | New Mexico v. Boise State UNDER 141 | Top | 52-89 | Push | 0 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Boise State is going to factor in the Mountain West Conference and it's because of defense. Only 20 teams yield fewer points per game than the Broncos, who are holding foes to 59 points. The Broncos just beat New Mexico, 77-53, on Monday. The Lobos had scored 72, 104 and 90 during their previous three games although that came against extremely weak competition. But it's not just New Mexico. In its previous two games, Boise State held BYU eight points under its scoring average and kept Weber State 21 points under its scoring average. Defense should prevail again in this quick rematch since the teams are familiar with each other. New Mexico heavily relies upon Makuach Maluach, who averages 17 points. The Broncos held him to 13 points on 41.7 percent shooting. The Lobos lack any other consistent scorers. The Lobos are not a quick pace team so that's another plus for the Under. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Lobos' last seven games. Boise State has been a big Under team, too, with 12 of its last 15 games going below the total, including the last six at home. | |||||||
12-23-20 | Bucks -3.5 v. Celtics | 121-122 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
The Bucks compiled the best regular season record at 56-17 last season. Milwaukee, though, was taken out in the playoffs by the Heat. So the Bucks and superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, armed with a contract extension, are anxious to begin a new season. They were a level higher than Boston last season and could be two levels higher right now given that the Celtics are without Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker. Milwaukee has the stronger bench and firepower as the Celtics don't offer much once you get past Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. | |||||||
12-23-20 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 225 | Top | 121-122 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
The Celtics' firepower is down right now minus departed Gordon Hayward and injured Kemba Walker. The Celtics don't have much scoring outside of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics added Tristan Thompson, who is good for the Under being a defensive-oriented big man. The Celtics gave up the fewest points per game in the playoffs and ranked No. 2 in scoring defense during the regular season last year at 107.3. The Bucks are adjusting to a new point guard, Jrue Holiday, and have brought in many new bench players. So Milwaukee's offense is in transition right now. | |||||||
12-23-20 | Northwestern State v. Washington State -16.5 | 52-62 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
Washington State is off to its best start in 13 years opening 7-0. The Cougars are hitting their stride, too, winning by 28 points during each of their last two games. But the major part of this handicap is a fade on Northwestern State. The Demons aren't very good - they are 1-9 - and they face a major fatigue issue. This is their fifth road game in six days and third in three days. The Demons have gone against top-ranked Gonzaga each of the last two days. This is Northwestern State's last game until Jan. 2. So it's not inconceivable the Demons mail this one in, or are just plain too tired to effectively compete. | |||||||
12-22-20 | Warriors v. Nets -6.5 | Top | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 37 h 36 m | Show |
I see this line closing higher so I'm going to lock in now with the Nets. It's no joke. The Nets are serious contenders to win the Eastern Conference with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant each healthy and an excellent collection of talented role players. Brooklyn looked good in preseason going 2-0 beating the Celtics and Wizards by a combined average of 14 1/2 points. Golden State isn't at Brooklyn's level. Yes, Stephen Curry is back. That's enough to elevate the Warriors into a playoff contender. But that's it. Klay Thompson is out long-term and Draymond Green isn't expected to play in this game due to a foot injury. The Nets have much the stronger bench. | |||||||
12-22-20 | Sacred Heart v. Wagner UNDER 139 | 86-85 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
The teams just Monday and there was a combined 120 points scored in Wagner's 74-46 blowout win. Sacred Heart should play with a lot of intensity in this shortest of revenge spots especially after being humiliated. The Pioneers forced nearly 14 turnovers a game. A key takeaway from that game was the slow tempo. Wagner is a slow tempo team. That's the way Sacred Heart is playing this year, too, being very inexperienced. The Under has cashed in 20 of Sacred Heart's last 28 games. The Under is 18-7-1 in Wagner's last 26 games. Sacred Heart ranks 327th in field goal shooting percentage. Wagner doesn't shoot much better ranking 300th. | |||||||
12-22-20 | Fairleigh Dickinson +1 v. Fairfield | 69-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
Fairleigh Dickinson is playing better on both ends of the court. The Knights also have played a tougher schedule than the Stags, who might not have their full concentration with Christmas break following this game. Fairfield is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Fairleigh Dickinson is averaging 78 points in its last three games after averaging 66.5 points during its first four games. The Knights have forced an average of 13.4 turnovers. | |||||||
12-22-20 | SE Missouri State +13.5 v. Indiana State | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Indiana State is an inconsistent team that is laying too many points here. The Sycamores haven't broken 68 points in each of their last three games. Southeast Missouri State is 2-4. But it's not a stretch to say the Redhawks could be 6-0 as three of their losses occurred in OT and the other was by two points on a last-second basketball. The Redhawks have three good seniors in Chris Harris, Nolan Taylor and Nana Akenten. | |||||||
12-21-20 | Murray State -3 v. Austin Peay | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
The teams played against each other two weeks ago and Murray State won, 87-57, as 3 1/2-point home favorites. The Racers have dominated this series winning eight of the past nine times. They are 8-1-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings against Austin Peay. Murray State averages 18 more points per game than the Governors. Austin Peay has been one of the worst point spread teams going 2-13-1 ATS the past 16 times, including 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games. The Racers have too much offense again for Austin Peay. The price is cheap to back them. | |||||||
12-20-20 | Weber State -5 v. Portland State | 72-74 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
Portland State hosted Weber State two days ago. The results weren't pretty for the Vikings. Weber State buried them, 94-66. Now the teams meet again. So what has changed? Nothing really. Portland State has short revenge and a limited home-court edge. But this isn't nearly enough to offset a 28-point difference. Weber State is said to be much improved offensively this season. The Wildcats have shown that. Discount a tough game against Boise State and the Wildcats are averaging 89 points in their three other games. The Wildcats showed they weren't bothered by Portland State's full-court pressure style. The Vikings are breaking in new players. They aren't as advanced right now as Weber State. They rank 317th in field goal percentage and 327th in 3-point shooting percentage. Weber State isn't likely to win by 28 points again, but the Wildcats should easily cover this number. | |||||||
12-19-20 | St. Joe's +22 v. Villanova | 68-88 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
I don't see the blowout oddsmakers are predicting. Saint Joseph got a lot of rust off following an 81-77 road loss to Drexel this past Thursday. The Hawks' previous game was way back on Nov. 27. St. Joe's took Auburn to overtime in a loss and was beaten by 22 points on a neutral court by Kansas in its two other games. So the Hawks are battle tested. They have two excellent scorers in Ryan Daly and Taylor Funk. Villanova was supposed to meet Virginia in a huge marquee matchup today in New York City, but that game was canceled because of COVID-19 issues with Virginia. So instead the Wildcats draw nearby Philadelphia foe St. Joe's. This is a huge rivalry game. The game means more for St. Joe's, which is trying to put last season's 6-26 record behind. St. Joe's is coached by Billy Lange, who previously served as associate head coach at Villanova under Wildcats head man Jay Wright. If the Hawks should fall considerably behind late in the game the backdoor should swing open as Wright would not want to embarrass his former assistant by running up a score. | |||||||
12-19-20 | Arizona +2.5 v. Stanford | 75-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Death, taxes and Arizona beating Stanford in college basketball. Those are among the few certainties in life. The Wildcats have defeated the Cardinal 20 times in a row! I see the streak reaching 21 consecutive Arizona victories in the series. The Wildcats are a deep team and tough on both ends of the court. Stanford lacks a strong inside presence and is vulnerable on the offensive glass, which is an Arizona strength. The Wildcats rank eighth in the country in offensive rebounding. Stanford has beaten Alabama, North Carolina A&T and Cal State-Northridge. Only the Alabama win was impressive. In their other step-up games, the Cardinal lost to North Carolina and Indiana. Those losses occurred on neutral courts. This game is on a neutral court, too, being played in Santa Cruz instead of Maples Pavilion on the Stanford campus due to COVID-19 restrictions. | |||||||
12-19-20 | Eastern Washington -9.5 v. Northern Arizona | 80-64 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
The records may seem like this would be a competitive game between two Big Sky Conference teams. Eastern Washington is 1-4. Northern Arizona is 0-3. But it's not. It's a complete mismatch where Eastern Washington should blow out Northern Arizona far more than even this double-digit spread indicates. Northern Arizona is one of the worst teams in the country. The Lumberjacks' average loss margin is 34 points! Their closest game was a 24-point loss to UC-Riverside. They rank 338th out of 357 Division I teams in defensive efficiency, according to KemPom.com ratings. Eastern Washington has played a far more difficult schedule. The Eagles lost 71-68 to Washington State, lost 70-67 to Arizona, fell 69-52 to Oregon and lost 80-75 to Saint Mary's. All of those games were on the road. The Eagles covered every one of those matchups except the Oregon one. Look for the Eagles, who were the preseason pick to win the Big Sky Conference, to unleash their frustrations and make a strong statement to hapless Northern Arizona knowing the teams meet again on Saturday. | |||||||
12-19-20 | Maryland-Baltimore County -3 v. Albany | 65-64 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
UMBC is 4-1 and has covered all five of its games. The Retrievers have looked much better than they did last season. Now they open America East Conference action today against Albany. The Great Danes were 4-20 last season. They have not played yet due to COVID-19 issues. It's difficult to believe Albany is going to be in game shape to take on UMBC having missed so many practices due to constant COVID-19 problems. So this is a very short number to back UMBC. | |||||||
12-19-20 | Purdue v. Notre Dame +6.5 | 88-78 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Notre Dame is one of the most battle-tested teams in the nation. The Irish are 2-3. One of their victories was against Kentucky on the road with three of their defeats occurring to Duke, Ohio State and Michigan State. The Irish are a much better 3-point and free throw shooting team than Purdue. The spot is good, too, for the Irish. They played sloppy in a 75-65 home loss to Duke this past Wednesday. Purdue, on the other hand, is off a satisfying 67-60 home win against Big Ten Conference foe Ohio State this past Wednesday. Note this game is at neutral site Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Irish have the experience, coaching and pride to learn from their Duke loss to come back strong after a poor performance. | |||||||
12-18-20 | Weber State v. Portland State OVER 147.5 | Top | 94-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Neither team was sharp offensively in their last game. Weber State scored just 59 points in an 11-point road loss to Boise State. Portland State suffered a nine-point road defeat to Washington State scoring only 60 points. I expect both Weber State and Portland State to score far more points than it did in those games as each is stepping down in class in this Big Sky Conference matchup. Weber State has a high-scoring guard , Isiah Brown. He's averaging 24.3 points. The Wildcats scored 88 and 85 points, respectively, in their first two games against lesser competition before running into Boise State. The Over has cashed in 12 of Weber State's last 16 games following a loss. Portland State produced 88 points in its last game versus a weaker foe before it met Washington State. The Vikings have gone Over in eight of their last nine home contests. | |||||||
12-17-20 | Cal-Irvine v. Loyola Marymount -4 | 48-51 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm sure Cal-Irvine will be a strong factor in the Big West Conference again. But right now the Anteaters are struggling. The Anteaters are 2-3 with their two victories coming against non-Division I opponents while all three losses have been to Division I foes in blowout fashion. The Anteaters lost to Pepperdine, 86-72, at a neutral site, lost 77-58 at San Diego State and fell 91-56 on the road to USC. They are 0-3 ATS in their lined games. Loyola Marymount is 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10 points at Gersten Pavillion. Senior forward Eli Scott gives the Lions the best player on the court. I don't see the Anteaters getting right in this road setting against this opponent. | |||||||
12-17-20 | St. Joe's +1.5 v. Drexel | 77-81 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Saint Joseph's has better talent than Drexel with Taylor Funk, Ryan Daly and Jack Forrest. Drexel can't match that firepower. Yet Drexel opened the favorite. I understand the Dragons are home. They've played five games, while St. Joe's has played only two games, none since Nov. 27 because of COVID-19 issues. So, yes, there could be a rust issue. But anytime the superior team is getting points I'm highly interested in backing the 'dog. St. Joe's two games were against Auburn and Kansas. The Hawks led Auburn by three with 30 seconds left before losing in overtime. They were hanging in against Kansas until the final 15 minutes. Drexel is coming off a 14-19 season. The Dragons are 3-2, but haven't beaten a team ranked in the top 250 in the KenPom rankings. | |||||||
12-16-20 | Samford -120 v. Troy State | Top | 71-79 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
Samford has gotten my attention with its last two games. The Bulldogs upset Belmont, 96-83, as 17 1/2-point road 'dogs and hung in against Georgia, in a 79-75 defeat, as 18-point road 'dogs despite not shooting well from the floor. Troy has played far easier competition in its last two games. Samford is far more explosive than the Trojans averaging 30 more points per game. This is a step down game for Samford and a step up game for Troy. The point spread is ripe to get involved with Samford. | |||||||
12-16-20 | St Francis NY v. Central Connecticut State OVER 154 | 59-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
The teams just met each other on Tuesday and St. Francis won, 91-86. That's a total of 177 points. The takeaway from that game was the uptempo pace and neither team showing much, if any, defense. Connecticut State has given up at least 79 points in all six of its six games. St. Francis averages 88.7 points in its three games. So it's perplexing that this game opened with such a low total. | |||||||
12-15-20 | Indiana State v. St. Louis OVER 140 | 59-78 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
Saint Louis is a run-and-gun team. Only 11 teams score more points per game than the Billikens, who average 92.3. They have five players averaging in double figures headed by Javonte Perkins. The Billikens are guard-oriented. They shoot and make a lot of 3-pointers. Indiana State ranks 300th in defensive field goal percentage and 319th in 3-point defense. Indiana State just lost 80-68 to Purdue this past Saturday. That game went Over by 11 points. The Boilermakers were averaging 61 points during their previous two games. The pace was fast in that game so that's a good sign for this one to go Over, too. | |||||||
12-15-20 | SE Missouri State +3 v. Evansville | 63-66 | Push | 0 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
Nothing fancy here. Evansville is 1-22 in its last 23 games. I'm going to fade them in this chalk role. The Purple Aces are a low-scoring team. They are 1-3 this season and are learning to get in sync having had two of their games canceled. Southeast Missouri State is the higher scoring team and a much better 3-point shooting team than Evansville. | |||||||
12-15-20 | Longwood +4.5 v. Radford | 53-62 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a rare instance of teams playing each other a second straight day. Radford nipped Longwood, 67-66, on Monday failing to cover as 4 1/2-point favorites. I thought Longwood was the better team then and I still believe that way. Both teams shot 45 percent from the floor. Radord, though, made 20 of 28 free throws while Longwood only got to shoot 10 free throws. Yet the Lancers still only lost by one point and had a chance to win at the end. I don't anticipate Radford having such a large free throw discrepancy this time around. Longwood guard Juan Munoz showed he was the best player on the court scoring 29 points. The Lancers have the stronger bench, which could prove important with this short turnaround. Radford has only one of its top seven scorers from last season back. The announced attendance for last night's game was 250 so there's not much home-court edge for Radford. Longwood has held four of its first five foes to fewer than 70 points. The Lancers have covered seven of their last eight road games, while Radford is 3-8-2 ATS in its past 13 home contests. | |||||||
12-15-20 | Buffalo -2.5 v. Miami-OH | 90-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Buffalo has lost some talent, but the Bulls still will have the two best players on the court in Jeenathan Williams and Jayvon Graves. They've combined to average 37 points and 16 rebounds per game. I see the Bulls having too much firepower for Miami of Ohio. The Bulls are tough on the glass and they outscore the RedHawks by eight points per game. Buffalo has major revenge, too, after the RedHawks upset them as 9-point 'dogs in the first round of the Mid-American Conference Tournament last season. | |||||||
12-14-20 | Longwood +3.5 v. Radford | Top | 66-67 | Win | 105 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
This is the Big South Conference opener for both schools. Longwood is 1-3. Radford is worse at 1-4. I disagree about the Highlanders being favored even though they are home. Radford is 3-7-2 ATS in its last 12 home games. The Highlanders have back only one of their top seven scorers from last season. The Lancers are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road contests and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 overall games. Longwood has held three of its first four foes to fewer than 70 points. Freshman guard Justin Hill has looked good for the Lancers. His 6.2 assists per game is second-best in the nation for a freshman. He and Juan Munoz give the Lancers a strong backcourt edge. | |||||||
12-13-20 | Massachusetts -3 v. Northeastern | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
These two teams opened their seasons just two days ago facing each other in the front end of a home-and-home series. It was no contest. UMass built a 20-point lead and easily handled Northeastern, 94-79. The Minutemen also defeated Northeastern last season by nine points. Tre Mitchell of UMass was the best player on the court scoring 31 points. The sophomore guard averaged 17.7 points last season. Northeastern is in rebuild mode having lost its two top scorers from last season. The Huskies are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games. The Minutemen are ranked 119th in Ken Pomeroy's highly-respected college basketball ratings while the Huskies are placed at 182nd. I see no reason why UMass shouldn't win and cover again in this short turnaround. | |||||||
12-12-20 | Dayton v. Mississippi State UNDER 135 | Top | 85-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
After opening with three home games, Dayton is playing on the road for the first time. The Flyers have failed to break the 66-point barrier in any of their games going against Eastern Illinois, SMU and Northern Kentucky. SMU ranks 91st in scoring defense, Northern Kentucky rates 170th in scoring defense and Eastern Illinois is 192nd. So it's not like the Flyers have played outstanding defensive opponents. Dayton is committing an average of 18.7 turnovers a game. So this has hampered the Flyers' offense. Mississippi State is the best defensive team the Flyers have faced. The Bulldogs rank 56th in scoring defense. Mississippi State does not play at a fast pace. The Bulldogs lost much of their offense from last season. This game is being played at neutral site Atlanta so that's a plus for the Under, too. | |||||||
12-12-20 | Wofford +3.5 v. South Florida | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Wofford is more than capable of beating South Florida, a below average American Athletic Conference team. Note this game is a neutral site matchup being played in Atlanta. The Terriers are one of the highest-scoring teams in the nation averaging 90.3 points. They rank 18th in scoring and 10th in shooting percentage. Wofford's lone loss in three games occurred on the road to Richmond, 77-72. The Spiders are one of the top mid-major teams in the country. South Florida is 3-2. The Bulls' wins have come against very weak competition - Florida College, Florida Gulf Coast and Stetson - while their losses were in step-up games against Rhode Island and Virginia Tech. South Florida was blown out in both of those games. | |||||||
12-12-20 | Florida +3 v. Florida State | 71-83 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
I like getting this many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. This isn't so much a fade on Florida State as it is a play on Florida, which is coming on after having its first three games cancelled because of COVID-19. The Gators are 3-0, including an impressive 90-70 victory against Boston College at a neutral site. The Gators have a star in forward Keyontae Johnson, who was voted the SEC's Preseason Player of the Year. He's averaging 19.7 points and shooting 63.9 percent from the floor. Guard Tre Mann also is playing extremely well for Florida. Florida State has played just twice and only once during the last 10 days. The Seminoles escaped with a 69-67 overtime home victory against Indiana this past Wednesday, failing to cover as 3-point favorites. The Hooisers nearly won despite shooting 37 percent from the floor and missing 11 of 15 3-point shots. | |||||||
12-11-20 | Marquette v. UCLA UNDER 140.5 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
Marquette remains a very good team, but the Golden Eagles are a different kind of good team from last season since they no longer have superstar Markus Howard. Howard led the nation in scoring last season. The Golden Eagles go all the way down from Howard averaging nearly 30 points a game to Koby McEwen, who leads Marquette in scoring at 16.6. The Golden Eagles use more motion offense now with frequent passing that leads to a balanced attack and takes time off the clock. The result is they've dropped 81 spots in terms of tempo ranking 141st in pace. Marquette has played five games. This is the Golden Eagles' first road road matchup. So I expect them to play even more cautious and deliberate especially given that UCLA is a high-scoring team. The Bruins, however, are stepping up against a much stronger defensive foe than they've encountered. Marquette ranks 17th in defensive field goal percentage. UCLA is talented, too, on the defensive end. The key in accessing the Bruins is their pace. Second-year UCLA coach Mick Cronin wants to take advantage of his team's quality depth by playing up-tempo. So far, though, that hasn't transpired as the Bruins rate among the bottom 20 percent in pace. | |||||||
12-11-20 | Nevada -1.5 v. Grand Canyon | 77-87 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
So far so good for Grand Canyon and its new coach, Bryce Drew, as the Antelopes are 3-0. But I see the Antelopes taking their first loss here. Nevada has played a far more difficult schedule than Grand Canyon. Among the foes the Wolf Pack have met are San Francisco, North Dakota State, Nebraska and Pacific. The Antelopes have played a Division III school and opponents who are ranked 333th and 377th, which is last, in the KenPom.com ratings. Grand Canyon also figures to be rusty, having not played in 10 days. The Antelopes' home-court edge isn't going to be much either due to limited fan capacity. Grand Canyon's calling card is height. Nevada counters that with a much better 3-point shooting game. Nevada center Warren Washington also has been playing well. The Wolf Pack have experience with four players back from their 19-win team of last season plus transfers. I see an obvious class difference and situational edge here that Grand Canyon's superior height won't be able to overcome. | |||||||
12-10-20 | Cal-Riverside -6.5 v. Northern Arizona | 74-50 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
On the surface we have a Big West Conference team, UC Cal-Riverside, taking on a Big Sky Conference foe, Northern Arizona, on the road. So the game should be close, right, considering we have two small conference teams going at it? I don't see it that way. I believe UC Cal-Riverside is much superior to Northern Arizona and the oddsmaker hasn't caught up to this. Northern Arizona has played only one game. That came four days ago. The Lumberjacks were crushed by Arizona, 96-53, as 23-point road 'dogs. Arizona nearly doubled the 23-point spread shooting 66.7 percent from the floor and making 59.1 percent of its 3-point shots. Riverside is coming off a 20-point road victory against Denver this past Sunday. The Highlanders put up 83 points and made 46.9 percent of their shots from beyond the range. This doesn't bode well for Northern Arizona. UC-Cal Riverside should be able to hurt the Lumberjacks from outside and score inside with center Jock Perry. The Highlanders are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games. They have a strong history, too, of covering against weaker opponents going 12-3 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. | |||||||
12-09-20 | Southern Utah -2.5 v. Utah Valley | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
There's a class difference here not reflected in the betting line, which is too short. Southern Utah has won three in a row, including beating Montana twice. The Thunderbirds were underdogs both times. Southern Utah forward Maizen Fausett was named Big Sky Conference Player of the Week. Utah Valley is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when going against above .500 opponents. The Thunderbirds can hurt Utah Valley in transition. Southern Utah dominated Montana in transition. That should be the case in this matchup, too. | |||||||
12-09-20 | Furman +4 v. Cincinnati | Top | 73-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
If you go by the highly respected KenPom.com ratings you'll see that Cincinnati is ranked 63rd and Furman right behind the Bearcats at 64. The Paladins are favored to win the Southern Conference. They have played only low-major opponents so far, but the results have been impressive: 4-0 with an average victory margin of 31.2 points. Furman had one of the 100 most efficient offenses in the country last season. The Paladins were among the top 10 best mid-majors in the country. So this isn't going to be an easy opponent for Cincinnati, especially given that the 1-1 Bearcats aren't playing well defensively and don't have a set rotation. This quote from Cincinnati coach John Brannen is telling: "I'm really learning our team," Brannen said following the Bearcats' 77-69 loss to Xavier this past Sunday. "We don't have a rotation yet. Those are things that we're learning." Furman guard Mike Bothwell is playing at a very high level averaging nearly 22 points a game. The Paladins have covered five of their last six road games. The Bearcats are 0-7 ATS at home going back to last season and 1-6 ATS after not covering in their previous game. | |||||||
12-08-20 | Green Bay +22.5 v. Marquette | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show | |
Green Bay catches Marquette at a good time. The Golden Eagles are still basking in the glory and satisfaction of defeating fourth-ranked Wisconsin, 67-65, this past Friday night at home. That was Marquette's first victory against a Top 5 program since 2017. So a letdown is very much a possibility for Marquette. The key question is if Green Bay is good enough to cover this large number? The Phoenix are 0-3. But they've played two tough Big Ten teams, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Green Bay was blown out in those games, but showed better in its last game, a two-overtime loss to Eastern Illinois. Green Bay is battle tested enough and given this scheduling break of drawing Marquette fat and happy, I believe the Phoenix can stay within the number. | |||||||
12-08-20 | Green Bay v. Marquette UNDER 153.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
Marquette is learning to adjust to life post Markus Howard, who was the leading college basketball scorer last season averaging 27.8 points. The Golden Eagles' leading scorer so far this season is Koby McEwan at 13.8. The Golden Eagles are more defensive-minded and passing the ball more now that they no longer have superstar Howard. Green Bay is likely to slow the pace, which will be OK with Marquette. The Phoenix averaged just 55.5 points in losses to Minnesota and Wisconsin. | |||||||
12-07-20 | Northern Arizona +23 v. Arizona | 53-96 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 26 m | Show | |
Northern Arizona is extremely anxious to play. This is the Lumberjacks' first game. They are a slightly above average Big Sky Conference team. I like the spot for the Lumberjacks and believe they have enough talent to cover this large spread. Arizona barely beat another Big Sky team, Eastern Washington, two days ago. The Wildcats won, 70-67, failing to cover as 12 1/2-point home favorites. Arizona is down three of its better players with Kerr Kriisa, Daniel Batcho and Ira Lee all out. Northern Arizona has one of the Big Sky's top players in versatile point guard Cameron Shelton. The Lumberjacks also have an excellent 3-point shooter in Luke Avdalovic and Jay Green, who transferred from UNLV. The Lumberjacks treat this in-state matchup more serious than Arizona. Northern Arizona coach Shane Burcar really wants a good showing. He replaced Jack Murphy last season after Murphy left for Arizona to become the associate head coach under Sean Miller. Certainly the Lumberjacks won't lack motivation going against their former coach. | |||||||
12-07-20 | Hampton v. Norfolk State UNDER 147 | Top | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
My first look in rivalry matchups such as this is to the Under. The more I study this game the clearer it becomes that Under is the right play. Hampton is down four of its top six scorers from last season, including Jermaine Morrow and Ben Stanley. Those two combined to average nearly 47 points a game. The Pirates like to play inside to their strength. That means more of a half-court game and slower pace. Norfolk State usually is one of the top defensive teams in the Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference. Defense, not offense, is the Spartans' calling card. The teams met last season and Hampton won, 64-53, at home. That game went Under by 25 1/2 points. | |||||||
12-06-20 | Seton Hall +3 v. Penn State | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm not convinced Penn State is the better team in this matchup even though Seton Hall is off to a slow start. The Nittany Lions had an easy win against overmatched VMI in their opener and then nipped VCU, 72-69, this past Wednesday on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Penn State failed to cover, though. So going back to last season, the Nittany Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. Seton Hall is 1-3 with a victory against Iona, but losses to Louisville by one point, to Rhode Island on the road and to 21st-ranked Oregon, 83-70, two days ago. The Ducks were blazing in that game hitting 53 percent of their shots from the floor. I envision the Pirates playing with a great deal of urgency. A straight-up victory by the Pirates would not surprise. | |||||||
12-06-20 | Cal-Riverside -4.5 v. Denver | 83-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
I like the way Cal-Riverside is playing defense. The Highlanders upset Washington, 57-42, at a neutral site in their last game after losing their opener to Pacific on the road, 66-60. Cal-Riverside already is battle tested at this early stage. The same can not be said for Denver. The Pioneers have played only one game and that was an 82-66 home victory against Regis University, a Division II program. Denver also could be rusty having not played in eight days. | |||||||
12-05-20 | South Carolina v. Houston UNDER 140.5 | Top | 67-77 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Only five teams have surrendered fewer points per game than Houston. The 3-0 Cougars have held their foes to 52 points on 36.7 percent shooting from the floor while forcing nearly 18 turnovers per game. Houston has become much more of a half-court team slowing down pace. That has factored into the Cougars' strong defensive showing. South Carolina has been slow to begin the season without getting to play any exhibition games. The Gamecocks are averaging 65.5 points in losing 78-62 to Liberty and beating Tulsa, 69-58. The Gamecocks are better on defense than they are on offense. Games played at Houston historically are lower-scoring than projected. The Under is 21-7-1 in the Cougars' last 29 home contests. | |||||||
12-04-20 | South Alabama +10 v. Auburn | 81-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
South Alabama hung in against Auburn last season losing, 70-69, as seven-point home 'dogs. Right now Auburn isn't nearly as good as it was last season yet the spread is double-digits, which is too high even given that the Tigers are home. This game means more to South Alabama than it does to Auburn and the Jaguars draw the Tigers at a good time. Auburn is feeling its way around after losing its top six scorers from last season. The Tigers brought in point guard Sharife Cooper, a five-star recruit. But Cooper has eligibility issues and has yet to play. The result has been chaos, turnovers and uncertainty at point guard. The Tigers haven't been shooting well, nor converting their free throws. They are extremely young with no seniors and just three juniors. South Alabama is 3-1 and playing with confidence. I see the Jaguars hanging in just like last season. | |||||||
12-04-20 | Oregon v. Seton Hall +3 | Top | 83-70 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Oregon may have the higher ceiling, but right now these teams are very even. I consider this a pick''em type game so I'll gladly accept points with the underdog Pirates. This game is at neutral site Omaha, Neb. The Pirates have covered a highly impressive 81 percent of their last 22 neutral site games. Due to COVID-19 issues, Oregon has been able to play only one game. The Ducks' opener against Eastern Washington was postponed. Oregon is breaking in four new starters. The Ducks are without Will Richardson, one of their best players. He's out with a thumb injury. So Oregon really needs to get into action. Seton Hall already is battle tested. The Pirates defeated Iona, but lost 71-70 to Louisville as a 5-point 'dog and fell 76-63 to Rhode Island. | |||||||
12-03-20 | Montana +1 v. Southern Utah | 63-64 | Push | 0 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Montana hadn't played in 266 days until meeting USC this past Saturday. The Grizzlies were rusty in the first half, but outscored the Trojans by five during the second half in a 76-62 loss. There's no shame in losing to the unbeaten Trojans, who dealt BYU its first loss of the season. Now the Grizzlies step down in class to face Southern Utah, which just got through playing some school named St. Katherine. So the Thunderbirds are in the opposite situation stepping up in class. Southern Utah hasn't been good at home failing to cover 11 of the past 14 times. | |||||||
12-02-20 | Oregon State v. Washington State UNDER 139 | Top | 55-59 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Neither Oregon State nor Washington State is expected to be much of a factor in the Pac-12 this season. So far so good, though, as each team is 2-0. Both teams have been winning with defense and slowing the ball down. I'm expecting a half-court type game here with plenty of defensive intensity. Oregon State opened its season defeating California, 71-63, and then buried overmatched NAIA opponent Northwest, 114-42, this past Friday. That was the Beavers' highest-scoring game in 33 years. It also skews their statistics. Their offense isn't as efficient this season minus Tres Tinkle. Washington State opened with a 56-52 victory against Texas Southern. That game went Under by 36 points. The Cougars followed up that impressive defensive effort with a 71-68 victory against offensively-talented Eastern Washington this past Saturday. That game also went Under. Lack of practice time and games being cancelled have slowed down some offenses. Here's a telling quote from Cougars coach Kyle Smith. "It's just an odd (feeling)," Smith was quoted as saying. "The scores in these games are going to be different to where you should be come January." | |||||||
12-02-20 | Tennessee Tech +23 v. Xavier | 48-79 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Tennessee Tech has some size and athleticism. The Golden Eagles play a lot of man-to-man, half-court defense, which Xavier hasn't seen too much. Keishawn Davidson is a good player. But most of this handicap to underdog Tennessee Tech is a play against Xavier. The Musketeers are 4-0, but haven't been playing well. Their last three victories against Bradley, Toledo and Eastern Kentucky have been by a combined seven points, including nipping Eastern Kentucky, 99-96 in overtime, on Monday. This marks Xavier's fifth game in seven days. The Musketeers have a rivalry game against Cincinnati on deck. The Musketeers are 0-6 ATS following a victory. Tennessee Tech is 0-2 and averages just 56.5 points. The Golden Eagles are 316th in KenPom.com's rating compared to Xavier's being 65th. But given the situation and Xavier not playing up to its capability yet, I'll accept this many points. | |||||||
12-02-20 | St. John's v. BYU -1 | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
I want BYU going for me after the Cougars were upset and smashed by USC, 79-53, on Monday in the Legends Classic opener in the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. St. John's had to work very hard to get past Boston College, 97-93, on Monday in its Legends Classic opener. St. John's is 3-0 with victories against St. Peter's, LaSalle and Boston College. The Johnnies pulled out a 76-75 win against St. Peter's by rallying for four points with 17 seconds left. St. John's was 10 1/2-point favorites in that game. BYU was 3-0 until falling to USC. The Cougars are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the country. But they were ice cold against the Trojans shooting 23 percent from beyond the arc and 27 percent from the field. I expect the Cougars to bounce back. They are 6-0 ATS following a loss. BYU won its first three games by an average of 33 points. St. John's ranks 203rd in 3-point defense. The Johnnies also are breaking in a new point guard. Along with their ability to hit 3-pointers, the Cougars have size and depth, which is key with both teams playing without rest. | |||||||
12-01-20 | Kentucky v. Kansas -4.5 | Top | 62-65 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
Both teams are replacing key players. But Kansas' rebuild job is further along and far less daunting than Kentucky's. The Wildcats are likely to get better as the season progresses, but right now they are extremely inexperienced and not ready for an opponent the caliber of Kansas. Kentucky, starting four freshmen, was exposed by Richmond two days ago losing, 76-64, as 6 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats were 0-for-10 from 3-point range and committed 21 turnovers. Keion Brooks Jr. is Kentucky's only returning starter and he has a leg injury. The Wildcats have missed 18 of 26 3-pointers on the season. Kansas had a good test in its opener falling, 102-90, to top-ranked Gonzaga. The Jayhawks rebounded to beat Saint Joseph's, 94-72, this past Friday. Kansas showed good depth in that game. Christian Braun and redshirt freshman point guard Dajuan Harris were sharp in that game. The Jayhawk are ahead of the Wildcats right now. Kansas has shown offensive efficiency while Kentucky's defense and outside shooting have not been impressive. | |||||||
12-01-20 | North Carolina A&T +4 v. Charleston Southern | 70-63 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
Charleston Southern has been one of the worst point spread teams going back to last season failing to cover in 9 of its last 10 games. Minus their top player, injured Phlandrous Fleming Jr., the Buccaneers have averaged only 55.5 points in losing and failing to cover during their first two games getting blown out by NC State and Eastern Kentucky. Fleming isn't expected to play here. But Kameron Langley is. He's North Carolina A&T's top player and maybe the best player in the Mid-East Athletic Conference. Langley and fellow seniors Tyrone Lyons and Blake Harris provide plenty of experience, scoring and assists for the Aggies. Langley is one of the top assist guys in the country. Charleston Southern hasn't done anything. The Buccaneers could have problems with Langley setting a fast tempo and with the Aggies' press. So I don't see the Buccaneers being favored even being at home. | |||||||
11-30-20 | Stanford v. Alabama -2 | 82-64 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
I know Alabama can produce points. I'm not so sure about Stanford. The Cardinal ranked 228th in scoring last season averaging 69.5. They are not a good free throw shooting team and no longer have Tyrell Terry, who was a second round draft pick of the Dallas Mavericks. This is Stanford's first game of the season. Alabama showed some defense in its opener, defeating Jacksonville State, 81-57, at home this past Wednesday covering as 21-point favorites. The Crimson Tide got some of the kinks out. I'm looking for them to play better in this step-up game. Note this matchup is being played in a downtown arena in Asheville, N.C. after the Maui Invitational was relocated. That's a plus for Alabama, the southern school. Stanford is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 neutral site matchups. | |||||||
11-30-20 | Eastern Kentucky v. Xavier OVER 144.5 | 96-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Tempo is one of the key ingredients in getting involved with a college basketball total. Xavier coach Travis Steele has his team playing at a quicker pace. The Musketeers have mostly been doing that going Over in two of their first three games. Eastern Kentucky certainly will be willing to run and press against Xavier. The Colonels play at the seventh-fastest pace in the country. "They're going to play really fast," Steele said about the Colonels. The Colonels are averaging 70 points in their two games, but are due to shoot much better from the perimeter as they've missed 47 of 56 shots from 3-point range. | |||||||
11-29-20 | Virginia Tech v. South Florida +8.5 | 76-58 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
South Florida is a borderline postseason contender with a defensive-minded backcourt and size up front. The Bulls didn't shoot well on Saturday and lost, 84-68, to Rhode Island in the Basketball Hall of Fame Tip-off at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut. No fans were in attendance. So it's easy to overlook South Florida when it takes on 2-0 Virginia Tech today. The 2-0 Hokies are coming off a huge, 81-73, overtime upset victory against third-ranked Villanova in the tournament. Virginia Tech was supposed to have played Temple. But the Owls had to drop out due to COVID-19 issues. So the Hokies may not have their full focus after that huge and unexpected victory against such a power. South Florida coach Brian Gregory knows Virginia Tech, an ACC team, from having coached against them when he was the head man at Georgia Tech. | |||||||
11-28-20 | Eastern Washington +4 v. Washington State | 68-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
Eastern Washington is very eager to play after its opener against Oregon was cancelled. The Eagles have the speed and perimeter shooting to pull the outright upset. Washington State is a young rebuilding team that went 6-12 in the Pac-12 last season. The Cougars are improving, but I don't rate them better than Eastern Washington, which won the Big Sky Conference last season and is picked by many to repeat. The Eagles likely were going to the NCAA Tournament before the season was cancelled. Washington State didn't look sharp in its opener this past Wednesday. The Cougars trailed at halftime before getting past Texas Souther, 56-52, as 12-point home favorites. | |||||||
11-28-20 | Loyola Marymount v. Minnesota OVER 143 | Top | 73-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Minnesota is going to be a higher scoring team this season. The Gophers have more players who can effectively score and they are playing at a very up-tempo pace. That was evident in Minnesota's first game, a 99-69 win against Green Bay. The Gophers nearly hit the century mark despite missing 27 of 34 shots from 3-point range. Loyola Marymount showed under new coach Stan Johnson that it will be playing much faster, too. The Lions nipped Southern Utah, 85-83, in their opener. A major takeaway from that game was the number of possessions, it exceeded any of the Lions' games from last season. This is just the fourth day of the college basketball season and the oddsmaker hasn't caught up to these two teams yet setting this total too low. | |||||||
11-27-20 | Mercer +13 v. Georgia Tech | 83-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech is coming off a tough, 123-120, four-overtime loss to Georgia State in its opening game two days ago. The Yellow Jackets better not sleep on this opponent, or they could be in trouble. Mercer has just a 15-minute drive so this isn't much of a road trip. The Bears are going to be taking this neighborhood matchup very serious, probably more so than Georgia Tech. This is the first meeting between the teams since 2011. Mercer easily beat North Georgia, 79-48, on Wednesday. A key for the Bears is the return of senior sharpshooter Ross Cummings, who missed much of last season due to a foot injury. Cummings could finish as Mercer's all-time leader in 3-pointers made. The Bears finished last season with an above .500 record in true road games. They dealt East Tennessee State its lone home loss last season with a 16-point win. Mercer has covered six of its past seven away games. | |||||||
11-27-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock +3 v. NC-Greensboro | 70-77 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
These are a pair of good teams from small conferences. The game is being played in neutral site Louisville as part of the Wade Houston Classic tournament. Arkansas Little Rock has the advantage of already having played. The Trojans downed Prairie View A&M, 71-66, on Wednesday. NC Greensboro not only hasn't played yet, but the Spartans weren't even able to have any preseason scrimmages against outside competition. I don't see the Spartans being the superior team, so I'll accept these points and back Arkansas Little Rock. | |||||||
11-26-20 | Utah State v. South Dakota State +2.5 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Utah State lost, 85-69, to Virginia Commonweath as a short favorite on Wednesday in its first round game in the Crosscover Classic in Sioux Falls, S.D. It was the fourth straight time the Aggies have failed to cover laying points. Utah State has a lot of inexperience this season. Aggies coach Craig Smith is using the early part of the season to experiment and get playing time for his inexperienced team of which nine members enter the season having never played a minute for the Aggies. So there is a huge unknown quality to Utah State. Not so with South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits have been one of the best spread teams in the country covering 20 of their last 26, including losing 79-71, to West Virginia as 11-point 'dogs in their first game of the tournament on Wednesday. The Jackrabbits were hanging tough trailing by four points during the second half, but could not get closer. They have covered six of the last eight times as a 'dog. | |||||||
11-25-20 | Eastern Illinois +19.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Wisconsin should be very good again this season returning nearly its entire rotation from its 21-10 team of last season. The Badgers, though, needed a late 15-0 run to beat Eastern Illinois, 65-52, last season. The Panthers had kept the game close trailing by just 46-43 with less than nine minutes remaining. Eastern Illinois went 17-15 last season and returns its top seven scorers, including Josiah Wallace. He was the fifth-leading scorer in the Ohio Valley Conference last season averaging 19.6 points. | |||||||
11-25-20 | Cal-Irvine +2 v. Pepperdine | 72-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
UC Irvine has a front-court edge, is the stronger defensive team and is much better coached with Russell Turner against Pepperdine's Lorenzo Romar. The Anteaters had a strong chance to reach the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year before the season was cancelled going 21-11. Pepperdine is a mediocre West Coast Conference team that went 16-16 and had one of the worst defenses in the country. | |||||||
11-25-20 | Toledo v. Bradley -3 | 59-61 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Bradley won the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament last season and has good depth this season. The Braves haven't had to endure a full COVID-19 quarantine like Toledo did. The Braves beat the Rockets, 78-66, last season. Bradley coach Brian Wardle knows Toledo coach Tod Kowalcyk having served five seasons under him at Green Bay. So playing Toledo has extra meaning for Bradley. | |||||||
10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 216 | Top | 106-93 | Win | 100 | 35 h 48 m | Show |
I don't expect the Lakers-Heat to make 39 of 43 (91 percent) free throws like they combined to do in the Heat's 111-108 Game 5 victory on Friday. I do expect both teams to play intense defense and for the pace to be slow in Sunday's Game 6. These are two reasons why I like the Under. There are other factors, too, that point to a lower-scoring game than what the total indicates. Fatigue and being in the bubble for so long are considerations. The Heat have shortened their bench to just two reserves with starting point guard Goran Dragic out. Jimmy Butler is on fumes. Miami has to play a slow-down, half-court, slog-in-the-mud style. They have the mentality, coaching and guts to win this way. The Lakers' greatest fear of LeBron James and Anthony Davis not getting enough help was realized in Game 5. Except for those two superstars, the Lakers didn't get good performances from anybody else. LA's reserves were 5-of-22 shooting from the floor for just 14 points. None of them can be counted on. This puts tremendous pressure on James, who doesn't figure to make 15 of 21 shots from the floor like he did on Friday, and Davis, who isn't 100 percent. Davis is dealing with soreness in his right heel that was reaggravated during Friday's game. Bothered by that, Davis managed just two shots in the fourth quarter. I have no doubt Davis will play Sunday. How effective he'll be with the heel injury and with defensive ace Bam Adebayo guarding him remains to be seen. | |||||||
10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers UNDER 217 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 41 m | Show |
By far the Heat and Lakers had their finest defensive performances of the playoffs in Game 4 this past Tuesday. The Heat getting star defender Bam Adebayo back and playing more man-to-man defense were keys. After giving up an average of 120 points in the first two games, the Heat have held LA to an average of 103 points during the past two games. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra isn't going to go away from his defensive script from the last two games in which Miami has gone 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS. The Heat are going to stick with plain, old-fashion playoff intensity defense. Adebayo's impact can't be downplayed. He missed Games 2 and 3 with a stiff neck. Adebayo is a rim protector and is the one Miami player who can keep Anthony Davis from dominating the offensive glass. Davis failed to get an offensive rebound in Game 4 after pulling down 13 during the first three games. It takes two to make a total work. I see the Lakers holding up their end especially with Goran Dragic out after he tore the plantar fascia in his left foot during Game 1. That's a serious injury and Dragic isn't coming back soon from it. The ramifications are severe for the Heat. Dragic, not Jimmy Butler, was the Heat's leading scorer in the playoffs entering this series. He also was their top assists guy and one of their key 3-point shooters. The loss of Dragic forces Spoelstra to use sixth man Tyler Herro as his lead ballhandler. Inserting Herro into the starting lineup greatly weakens Miami's bench especially from a scoring perspective. Lakers coach Frank Vogel made a major adjustment in Tuesday's Game 4 putting Davis - the Lakers' best defender - on Butler for the entire game. Butler still had a decent game, but couldn't come close to matching his Superman performance in Game 3 while missing nine of his last 12 shots. These adjustments, coupled with playoff intensity, should result in the Under cashing again. | |||||||
10-06-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219 | Top | 102-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
We have a series after all thanks to Miami making 41 of 80 (51.2 percent) shots from the floor and 21 of 23 (91 percent) free throws in its 115-104 Game 3 victory this past Sunday. Jimmy Butler had a game for the ages with 40 points making 14 of 20 shots from the field. The Lakers haven't lost consecutive games in the playoffs. I expect their defensive intensity to be way up. They've held their last three opponents - Houston, Denver and Miami - to 108 or less points in seven of the last 11 games. I certainly don't expect Butler to repeat that monster performance and for the Heat to come nowhere close to shooting that unbelievably well again. Butler is a tremendous all-around player, but he's not Superman. The Lakers are in the Orlando bubble. They can't go anywhere, or do much except study game film of their miserable Game 3 loss. The Heat aren't going to have Goran Dragic. He's their best ballhandler. Bam Adebayo has a neck strain. He didn't play in Game 3 making Miami's victory all the more remarkable. He's questionable for this matchup. Adebayo is Miami's top defender. But he's also a force on the offensive glass and someone the Lakers have to game plan against. So he's a double-edged sword regarding the total. LeBron James and Anthony Davis committed a combined 15 turnovers on Sunday. James was overdue to have a big turnover game. The Heat are extremely well coached. They can play an effective 2-3 zone. The Lakers were held to just 50 points in the second half. So I have to think that the Heat's No. 1 priority is defense. Their hunger, confidence and street-fighting team makeup should be at a fever pitch for this matchup. This is playoff basketball after all. | |||||||
10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 219 | Top | 104-115 | Push | 0 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
The plucky Heat weren't going to upset the Lakers even if they were healthy. But now take away Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic - Miami's second and third-best players - the Heat have no chance. Still, the Heat have a lot of street fight mentality installed in them by Erik Spoelstra, Pat Riley and Jimmy Butler. This is a well-coached, tough, gutty team. And this Game 3 is their season. So I don't want to lay this big number with the Lakers. I believe the best way to go is with the Under. The Lakers haven't had a total this high since two series ago when they were going against the small-ball, up-tempo Rockets. The Heat also haven't had an Over/Under this high during their past two series. The Lakers are coming off their worst defensive performance maybe of the entire 17 playoff games giving up 114 points to a wounded Heat squad. Frank Vogel and LeBron James aren't going to stand for that. Expect a much tighter and intense Lakers defensive effort. No snoozing or being overconfident. The Heat know they have to clamp down on the Lakers being plus 13 on offensive rebounds. Adebayo is a long-shot to play. If he did that would reduce that gap. I'm not expecting him to play, though. I am expecting an all-out defensive effort from the Heat and for James to commit more turnovers than the small number he has. | |||||||
09-30-20 | Heat +5 v. Lakers | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 39 m | Show |
Maybe LeBron James is the Chosen One and his Lakers the anointed world champions. That's probably how this NBA Championship Series is going to get played out. But Miami will make LA sweat and earn it. The Lakers have been idle for four days. They lost the opening game in their playoff series against Portland and Houston. There's going to be a feeling-out process here in this Game 1. There could be Lakers rust. Eric Spoelstra is a top-notch coach. Miami will be well-prepared. The Lakers will need to hit a fair amount of 3-point shots to dent the Heat's 2-3 zone defense. Anthony Davis will have to deal with Bam Adebayo, who is the best defender an opponent can have to square off against Davis. James is going to be facing a swarm of wing players who are accomplished defenders and have experience guarding him - Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala. Spoelstra coached James in Miami. This will be James' stiffest test of the postseason. Let's forget the regular season. Erase it. Concentrate on the bubble where the Heat raised their game to an unprecedented level sweeping the Pacers, stunning the Bucks and taking out the Celtics. The Heat's intensity and variety of defenses help them bottle up Giannis Antetokounmpo and then Jayson Tatum. The Heat have been tremendously underrated in the bubble covering 12 of their last 15 games. The Lakers haven't faced this strong of a defense. Portland ranked 27th defensively. Denver was 16th, Houston 15th. James and Davis are the two best players on the court. But the Heat have the next best three in Butler, Abebayo and Goran Dragic, who is having a strong postseason. I'll take the Heat's bench over LA's reserves. None of the Lakers' bench players has been able to match the instant offense of unconscious rookie Tyler Herro. Miami is likely to play more zone defense than the Lakers are used to. The Lakers rank 21st in 3-point shooting percentage. By comparison, the Celtics ranked 13th. There is no home-court in the bubble. This is strictly matchup basketball where coaching is magnified. If the Heat don't steal this first game, they should at least take LA to the wire. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $863 |
Tom Macrina | $596 |
Joey Tron | $477 |
Ricky Tran | $440 |
William Burns | $268 |
Joseph D'Amico | $254 |
Ross Benjamin | $140 |
Big Al McMordie | $134 |
Jesse Schule | $116 |
Dan Kaiser | $74 |