Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-15-19 | CS-Northridge +7.5 v. Pacific | 73-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
A pair of lower-league Northern California teams square off Sunday. Yes, Cal State-Northridge-Pacific is way below the radar screen, especially on an NFL Sunday. But there is enough value on the underdog to get involved with the Matadors. Pacific just nipped the Matadors, 79-77, last season. This year's matchup should be another close encounter. Each team averages 69 points. Pacific is a mid-sized favorite because it is home and has gaudy defensive numbers. There are reasons to believe this line is too high, though. The Tigers haven't played in more than a week. That's too long to be idle at this juncture of the season. Look for a rust factor. Pacific also is 2-7 ATS following a victory. Northridge played four days ago. The Matadors have covered five of their last six and are 4-0 ATS during their past four road games. | |||||||
12-14-19 | Nicholls State +19.5 v. West Virginia | 57-83 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker isn't giving Nicholls State enough respect. The Colonels are road-tested and have hung in against strong competition. Nicholls State took Illinois to overtime, fell by just just 10 points against ranked LSU, lost by five points each to Pittsburgh and Rhode Island. All of these contests were on the road. The Colonels are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road matchups. West Virginia is coming off an, 84-53, home win against Austin Peay on Thursday. The Mountaineers are 5-13 ATS following a victory. | |||||||
12-13-19 | Knicks v. Kings -8 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
Quietly and well below the radar screen, the Kings have been one of the hottest point spread teams in the NBA covering 15 of their last 19 for 79 percent! The Knicks find themselves in a very rare situation - being in a letdown spot. New York halted a 10-game losing streak with a 124-122 road overtime victory against Golden State on Wednesday. The Knicks are 6-21 ATS following a spread cover. They haven't won consecutive games all season. The key here is are the Kings good enough to cover this high of a number? They haven't been this large of a favorite all season. I believe the Kings can given how well they are playing and the situation. Sacramento has won three in a row knocking off the Mavericks, Rockets and Thunder. Those teams are all considerably better than the Knicks with the Rockets and Mavericks rating among the best teams in the Western Conference. Marvin Bagley III is back for the Kings. He's their best big man. The Kings play their next four games on the road starting Sunday. So motivation shouldn't be a problem. New York is playing its third road game in four days. The Knicks rate with the Cavaliers, Hawks and Warriors as one of the four worst teams in the NBA. Even after scoring 124 points against the Warriors, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in scoring, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Sacramento had no problem with the Knicks at Madison Square Garden last month beating them, 113-92. It was the Kings' fourth win in a row against New York. | |||||||
12-12-19 | Mavs -5 v. Pistons | Top | 122-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
First, note the venue. This game is being played in Mexico City. That's a plus for Dallas, which is much closer to Mexico than Detroit. The Mavericks also have several Spanish speaking players, including star point guard Luka Doncic. The Mavericks have been dominant away from home going 15-3-1 ATS (83 percent) in their last 19 road games. Dallas is at least one level, if not two levels, higher than Detroit. The Mavericks last played on Sunday. So they've had ample time to rest, prepare and stew over their last game, a home loss to the Kings that ended a five-game win streak. The Pistons have played a weaker schedule. They've met only three teams from the Western Conference, all of whom have losing records. | |||||||
12-11-19 | Lakers -6.5 v. Magic | Top | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
The Lakers are among the three best teams in basketball. They are a sizzling 14-1 in their last 15 games and unbeaten away from Staples Center going 11-0. I rate the Lakers close to three levels higher than Orlando. The Magic have consistently failed to step up against elite competition going 1-9 versus above average teams. The Lakers should be focused and energized having last played on Sunday. The Magic have failed to cover in five of their last seven home games. | |||||||
12-11-19 | North Carolina-Asheville v. South Carolina State OVER 153 | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
Asheville is a good team to go Over because it averages 82.4 points a game, which ranks 21st in the country, but gives up nearly 75 points a game while ranking 351st in defensive field goal percentage. The Bulldogs play at a fast tempo, too. South Carolina State is better offensively than it's overall numbers show due to its schedule. SCS has played three strong defensive clubs. This has skewed its overall numbers. They should feast against a very weak Asheville defense. | |||||||
12-10-19 | Louisville v. Texas Tech UNDER 130.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
This may seem like a low total, but it's not given who these teams are and where this game is being played. Texas Tech has a top defensive coach in Chris Beard. The Red Raiders rank in the top 15 in defensive efficiency, giving up more than 75 points only once in eight games. They also haven't met an opponent nearly the defensive caliber of Louisville. The Cardinals rank 15th in the nation in fewest points allowed at 57.6 and in the top-five in defensive efficiency giving up 0.853 points per possession. Louisville has held its last two opponents - Michigan and Pittsburgh - to an average of 44.5 points a game. Only once have the Cardinals permitted more than 62 points during their last eight games. Making things worse for Texas Tech is its leading scorer, freshman guard Jahmi'us Ramsey, is questionable with a hamstring injury. He's missed the last three games - all Texas Tech losses. The Red Red Raiders have averaged 62.6 points in regulation during those three defeats. This game is at neutral site Madison Square Garden as part of the Jimmy V Classic tournament in New York. The Garden is known for being favorable to Unders because of the tough shooting backdrop, especially so for teams not use to playing there. | |||||||
12-09-19 | Raptors -5 v. Bulls | Top | 93-92 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Toronto is in stop-the-pain mode on a season-long three-game losing streak. Those losses, however, have occurred to the Heat in overtime, Rockets and 76ers. Now the Raptors step way down in class taking on a lottery foe they have owned. Toronto has won won the past 10 meetings against the Bulls, including, 108-84, earlier this season at Chicago. It was the fifth straight time the Raptors have covered at the Bulls. The defending champions know how to get it done against weaker opponents. Toronto is 13-3 ATS the past 16 times when facing below .500 teams. The Raptors may not have injured guard Fred VonVleet against the Bulls. He hurt his knee in Sunday's 110-104 loss to the 76ers. But starting point guard Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are back for Toronto. Toronto matches up well to the Bulls. The Raptors rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage while the Bulls are the second-worst shooting team in the league.The Bulls also played on Sunday and suffered a tough 110-105 overtime loss to the Heat on the road squandering a one-point lead in the final seconds. Rarely do the Bulls play well in back-to-back games. | |||||||
12-08-19 | Thunder v. Blazers -3.5 | 108-96 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
Portland is playing better than it did when it defeated Oklahoma City, 136-119, at home on Nov. 27 and defeated the Thunder, 102-99, on the road Oct. 30. The Trail Blazers were 4-1 in their last five games until falling to the Lakers at home, 136-113, this past Friday. No shame in that. I rank the Lakers as one of the two best teams in the NBA. Portland lost Rodney Hood, who was enjoying a strong season, for the year in that loss. Hood suffered a torn Achilles. I expect Portland to come back strong at home. Teams often rally and play well in the first game after losing a good player. The Trail Blazers have a strong history under Terry Stotts of playing well following a blowout loss, too. They are 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times after suffering a double-digit defeat. Oklahoma City is a bad road club. The Thunder are 2-7 away from home with their lone road wins coming against the Pelicans and Warriors, who have a combined record of 11-36. The Thunder enter this matchup fat and happy after pulling off one of the more improbable victories of the season. The Thunder beat the Timberwolves in overtime at home on Friday. They forced overtime by scoring a basketball at the buzzer off a long pass after trailing by two points with 1.1 seconds left and Karl-Anthony Towns at the free throw line for Minnesota. | |||||||
12-07-19 | Illinois +11 v. Maryland | 58-59 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Maryland is unbeaten and ranked No. 3 in the country. But matchup-wise and situationally I can see Illinois staying within single digits of the Terrapins. Illinois is coming off a bad loss to Miami after having won four in a row. The Illini are inconsistent, but they have talent. Illinois beat Maryland last season on the road and the Illini are better this season. Maryland is strong defensively. The Terrapins are vulnerable here, though, because they are not a great shooting team, are undersized in the middle and thus can be exploited by Illinois' talened 7-footer Kofi Cockburn, who averages 23 points, and have a bigger game on deck. The Terrapins are fat and happy opening 9-0 for the first time in 21 years. They face a much bigger challenge playing their first true road game against Penn State on Tuesday. Thus they could get caught peeking past Illinois. | |||||||
12-06-19 | Wizards v. Heat -9.5 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Miami is 8-0 at home this season. Going back to last season, the Heat are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home contests. Miami shoots 51.4 percent from the floor at home compared to 45.1 percent away. The Heat give up 17 fewer points per game than the Wizards. Washington is 12-29-1 ATS the last 42 times it has been on the road facing an above .500 home foe. Not only is Miam vastly superior to Washington - which this point spread reflects - but it draws the Wizards being in a highly favorable situational spot. The line doesn't fully reflect that. Washington is off maybe its best game of the season, a 119-113 home win against the 76ers. The Wizards had lost three in a row prior to that victory. The Heat are off a disappointing, 112-93, road loss to the Celtics from Wednesday. Miami is 18-7-1 ATS following a non-cover. The Heat also are 14-2-1 ATS the past 17 times when going against a below .500 opponent. The Wizards are shorthanded in the middle with center Thomas Bryant sidelined with a foot injury. In addition, point guard Isaiah Thomas is dealing with a calf injury. | |||||||
12-04-19 | Kings v. Blazers -3 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
You wouldn't know it from their Tuesday performance against the Clippers, but the Trail Blazers are back on track after multiple frontcourt injuries helped cause a rough 2-10 stretch last month. Portland had rebounded to win three in a row until getting blown out, 117-97, on the road by the Clippers last night. The Clippers are 13-1 at home and one of the five best teams in the NBA. The Kings are a likely lottery team again. They are missing their second-best scorer, De'Aaron Fox, and top big man, Marvin Bagley III. Both are injured and not expected to return to the lineup until later this month. In addition. Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a sore hamstring. He's the Kings' fourth-leading scorer and top reserve player. The Trail Blazers have fortified their All-Star backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum by taking a chance on Carmelo Anthony, who has played well. Center Hassan Whiteside is having a strong bounce back year, too, for the Trail Blazers after leaving Miami. The one positive to the Trail Blazers' loss to the Clippers last night was not a single Portland player logged more than 30 minutes. Portland had not played in three days prior to the loss to the Clippers. So there should not be a fatigue factor. Note, too, that Sacramento has lost during its last 11 visits to Portland. | |||||||
12-04-19 | Loyola Marymount +18.5 v. Colorado | 64-76 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
Colorado is ranked 20th in the latest Top 25 Associated Press poll. The Buffaloes, though, have been sloppy averaging 14 turnovers a game. Loyola Marymount forces 13.5 turnovers per game and shoots 50.7 percent from the floor, which ranks 13th-best in the nation. Those are some of the reasons I like the Lions to cover this margin. But the biggest facor is Colorado plays No. 2 ranked Kansas on Saturday. It's the first time in five years the Buffaloes are playing a Top-25 team while also being ranked in the Top-25. So the Buffaloes may not be fully focused. It could also mean the backdoor is left open for the Lions since Colorado doesn't want to totally tax itself with a such a monster matchup on the horizon. | |||||||
12-03-19 | UTEP +5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
Yes, home-court and revenge are worth something. Just not this much. The teams met three weeks ago and Texas El-Paso won by 15 points, 65-50. New Mexico State had trouble handling UTEP's press. The Aggies have played better since then. But the Miners also are playing well. They are 5-0 on the season and their bench strength just got a huge boost with Kaden Archie, a transfer from TCU, now eligible. The Miners won the first matchup despite Bryson Williams limited to just 17 minutes due to foul trouble. Williams is the best player on the court averaging 18 points and 6.8 rebounds a game. He still scored 19 points and pulled down eight rebounds in the first meeting. UTEP has covered eight of its last nine nonconference games for 89 percent. | |||||||
12-01-19 | Spurs +4 v. Pistons | 98-132 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
The 7-13 Spurs probably are the most disappointing team in the NBA at this juncture. But unlike the Warriors, the Spurs still maintain All-Stars in LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan. I'm not ready to close the book on any team with that talent especially one coached by Gregg Popovich. The Spurs showed they aren't dead by haltiing the Clippers' seven-game win streak, 107-97, on Friday. The Clippers are a top-five team. That should give the Spurs a much needed jolt of confidence. This is San Antonio's lone road game during a seven-game stretch. The Rockets are up next for the Spurs - and that's a probable loss. So San Antonio should be focused for this matchup. It's a big step down from the Clippers. The Pistons are seven games below .500 and that's having played only one Western Conference opponent so far, the Timberwolves. Detroit has two stars, too, in Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin. But I would take the rest of the Spurs' lineup against the Pistons. The Spurs hold a winning record versus sub .500 opponents and have covered seven of the last nine times versus Detroit. | |||||||
11-30-19 | Nuggets -4 v. Kings | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
This line is short. Denver is far superior to Sacramento. The Nuggets also are healthy. The Kings are missing their second-leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox, and best big man, Marvin Bagley III. The Nuggets enter this matchup well-rested and hot, winners of six in a row. Denver has been idle since Tuesday. The Kings are in a tougher situational spot even though they are the home team having just returned from a four-game East Coast trip. Denver is 5-1 on the road this season. One of those victories was against the Kings, 101-94, during the second week of the season when Fox was playing for Sacramento. The Nuggets won that matchup by seven points despite an off-game from their best player, Nikola Jokic, and making just 36.7 percent of their field goal attempts. Taking on the Kings always holds special meaning for Denver coach Michael Malone. He was fired by the Kings after coaching them for just two seasons. I regard Malone as one of the better coaches in the league. He has the Nuggets playing their finest defense ever, ranking No. 1 in the NBA in fewest points per game. The Nuggets have covered eight of the past 10 times against the Kings. | |||||||
11-30-19 | East Carolina v. James Madison OVER 153.5 | 89-99 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
Pace and tempo are a big key in cashing an Over play. We have that with James Madison. The Dukes are running so much they lead the nation in shortest possession time. The result is the Over is 4-1-1 in James Madison's lined games this season. James Madison is coming off a 94-78 home loss to Coppin State. The Dukes were 9-point favorites in that game. The Over is 27-11 following a James Madison loss. This opening total takes into account East Carolina's poor shooting, especially from 3-point range. But the total should have opened higher because the Pirates haven't faced an up-tempo opponent the caliber of James Madison. Instead the Pirates have played tough defensive foes as Liberty, Appalacian State and Navy. The Pirates have better scorers than what their season statistics show. | |||||||
11-29-19 | Jazz -6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-94 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The teams met just two weeks ago and the Grizzlies beat the Jazz, 107-106, as 7 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Jazz have huge revenge and the line this time around is lower. Mike Conley did not play well in his return to Memphis after being the Grizzlies' point guard for 12 years. Conley vows to be more focused and play better today. Utah made just 40.1 percent of its field goal attempts in that earlier loss to the Grizzlies. The Jazz are not only are anxious for this rematch, but ready to get back on the court after suffering an embarrassing, 121-102, road loss to the Pacers two days ago. The Jazz did get back star center Rudy Gobert in that game. He had been out two games with an ankle injury. The Grizzlies are in a major rebuild job. They've lost five in a row since upsetting the Jazz. | |||||||
11-27-19 | Knicks v. Raptors OVER 210 | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Just by the numbers this game should go Over. The Raptors have scored at least 113 points in seven of their last 10 games. They are ninth in the league in scoring and first in 3-point percentage. The Knicks are well below average in 3-point defense ranking 23rd. The Knicks have reached triple-digits in each of their last seven games, averaging 106 points during this span. But, wait, there is more. The Knicks spent their Tuesday practice working on increasing their tempo. New York coach David Fizdale wants the Knicks to play faster. The Knicks have gone Over 11 of the past 15 times (73 percent) when playing on two days rest. So with the Knicks looking to play more up-tempo the chances of this game flying Over have increased. | |||||||
11-27-19 | SE Missouri State v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 135.5 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
Cal-State Fullerton has plyed four Division I foes this season. The Titans are averaging 57.2 points in those games. They didn't break 60 points in any of those games. It's not a big surprise considering the Titans no longer have their high-scoring backcourt due of Khalil Ahmad and Kyle Allman Jr. Those two combined to average more than 35 points a game last season. The Titans not only have to replace the scoring of Ahmad and Allman, but also the way they ran the offense. That's going to take time. Southeast Missouri State also has to replace several of its top scorers from last season. The Redhawks rank 209th in scoring at 71.2 points. That number is skewed, though, by the Redhawks having played two really bad defensive teams of the four opponents they have met. They aren't a good free throwing shooting team either. The Titans have been a big Under team under coach Dedrique Taylor. This has been especially so on neutral courts such as where this one is being played. The Under has cashed in 17 of the Titans' last 23 neutral site games for 74 percent. | |||||||
11-26-19 | Wizards +10 v. Nuggets | Top | 104-117 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
The Wizards are a lottery team. But they are winners when it comes to being big underdogs. Washington is 6-0-1 ATS when taking more than five points this season. The Wizards also are 5-1-1 ATS during their last seven road contests and have covered five of the past six times when meeting the Nuggets. Washington is the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA averaging 119 points. The Wizards should be pumped for this matchup off a bad home loss to Sacramento two days ago. This is the start of a four-game Western Conference swing for the Wizards that includes games against the Lakers and Clippers. The Nuggets are fat and happy going 3-0 on their current homestand with victories against the Suns, Celtics and Rockets. This is their fourth game in seven days. They won't play again until Saturday. | |||||||
11-25-19 | 76ers v. Raptors +2 | 96-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm not buying the Raptors as a home 'dog to the 76ers. Philadelphia may emerge as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, but the Raptors still are very dangerous at home even without Kawhi Leonard and injured Kyle Lowery. The 76ers know this better than any team. Toronto has defeated Philadelphia 13 straight times at home during the regular season going 9-3-1 ATS the past 13 times hosting the 76ers. Toronto is 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 home contests. The 76ers have lost five of their past six away games. Their only victory during this road span was against the lowly Cavaliers. There's a chance the Raptors get back injured forward Serge Ibaka, too. He's missed the last seven games with a sprained ankle. | |||||||
11-25-19 | Butler v. Missouri UNDER 126.5 | 63-52 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
The total is low here, but it's totally justified. Missouri ranks seventh in the KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency ratings, while Butler is rated 29th in defensive efficiency. Both teams play at a very slow pace especially Butler. Only five teams force more turnovers than Missouri. So the the Bulldogs will be especially careful about pushing pace. The Under has cashed in 13 of Butler's last 16 nonconference matchups. Note this game is being played in Kansas City so neither team is familiar with this neutral court setting, which is another plus for the Under. | |||||||
11-23-19 | Spurs -125 v. Knicks | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
How low can the Spurs sink? Not this low. The Spurs have lost eight in a row, something they had never done during the Gregg Popovich era. San Antonio may miss out on a playoff spot in the tougher Western Conference, but the Spurs are not a bottom-feeder like the Knicks are. DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge give the Spurs the two best players on the court. The Spurs' backcourt is weak, but so is New York's. The Knicks have failed to cover in 27 of their last 38 home games. The teams met opening night in San Antonio and the Spurs won, 120-111. | |||||||
11-23-19 | Manhattan v. Elon +1 | 69-64 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Far from the glare of the national spotlight is this matchup. Elon is at home and its record is misleading because the Phoenix have played far stronger competition than Manhattan. In its last three games, Elon has taken on Georgia Tech, Michigan and North Carolina. The Phoenix covered against both Michigan and North Carolina. The Jaspers have played far weaker competition and have failed to cover four of the last five times they've played in non-conference. | |||||||
11-22-19 | Rockets +4.5 v. Clippers | 119-122 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
Paul George is back for the Clippers. George and Kawhi Leonard are one of the few tandems that can match Houston's superstar backcourt duo of James Harden and Russell Westbrook. It's going to take time for George and Leonard to jell, though. Harden and Westbrook have had much more time together. They are in sync now. The result is Houston going 8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS in its last nine games. The Rockets defeated the Clippers just nine days ago, 103-92, laying 2 1/2 points. Harden burned Patrick Beverley for 47 points. Now look at the spread. It's too high to justify the Clippers being home and having George this time around. | |||||||
11-22-19 | Idaho State v. Santa Clara UNDER 139 | 65-78 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
I don't see many points being scored in this one. Idaho State averages fewer than 68 points a game and is horrible from the foul line. Santa Clara is an excellent perimeter defensive club. The Broncos have held four of their five opponents to 63 points or fewer. The Under is 18-7-1 in the Broncos' past 26 home contests. Idaho State is an above average defensive team. The Bengals rank 2nd in the nation in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. They've gone Under in 21 of their last 31 non-conference games. | |||||||
11-22-19 | Fordham v. Nevada -5.5 | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
Don't be fooled by Fordham's 3-0 record and Nevada's 2-3 record. Fordham is terrible. The Rams have just played an easy schedule. Nevada is the superior team and has played vastly better competition with its losses occurring to Davidson, USC and Utah. Note this matchup is part of the eight-team Paradise Jam tournament taking place in the Virgin Islands. The Rams probaby are going to be the worst team in the Atlantic-10 and are the worst of the tournament teams here. The Rams were terrible last season and are down point guard Nick Honor, who led them in scoring last year and transferred to Clemson during the off-season. Nevada has the better shooters and athletes. The Rams have failed to cover 20 of their past 28 times in non-conference games. | |||||||
11-21-19 | Duquesne v. Indiana State UNDER 138.5 | 74-71 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My first look at neutral court games such as this one is toward the Under. This matchup is being played in the Bahamas. Neither team is up-tempo. Missouri Valley Conference teams usually are strong defensively. Indiana State fits that description. Duquesne is more about defense than offense under coach Keith Dambrot. This total opened too high. | |||||||
11-20-19 | Texas State v. UNLV -5 | 64-57 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 11 m | Show | |
UNLV is much tougher at home and has played the stronger schedule. The Rebels lost to California and Kansas State both in overtime and also lost to UCLA. Texas State has played just one strong opponent, Baylor. The Bobcats lost that game, 75-63. The Bobcats are 0-2 on the road. UNLV got back to winning and covering defeating Abilene Christian, 72-58, at home on Monday. | |||||||
11-20-19 | Pistons +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 89-109 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
Both teams are struggling. But with Blake Griffin back to team with Andre Drummond, the Pistons have the two best players on the court. This spot favors Detroit, too, on several counts. Not only do the Pistons have revenge for a 112-106 road loss to the Bulls from three weeks ago when they were without Griffin, but they have been idle since Friday. The Bulls, by contrast, are in action for the third time in five days. Chicago is just 2-5 at home. The Bulls are minus injured Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen, their best big man, is off to a slow start shooting just 36.2 percent from the floor. | |||||||
11-18-19 | Pacers +4 v. Nets | Top | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Indiana had won seven of eight games until losing on the road to the Rockets and at home to the Bucks in its last two games. Now the Pacers go back down in class to take on the Nets. Indiana has covered five of the past six times when taking on sub-.500 opponents. Brooklyn hosted Indiana back on Oct. 30 and the Pacers won, 118-108. The season was just beginning back then and the Nets were 3-point favorites. The Nets haven't been a good team so far yet this spread is higher. This is a favorable situation for Indiana and the Nets have an underrated key injury with guard Caris LeVert out until next month due to a thumb injury. He might be Brooklyn's second best player behind Kyrie Irving. The Nets finished a five-game, nine-day road trip by beating the Bulls two nights ago. Irving sat out that game because of a sore shoulder. I assume he's going to play here. It's an unexpected bonus if he doesn't. I'm taking the number now because if word comes out later that Irving won't play the line is sure to drop. The Nets' concentration level could be down a notch in their first game back from their long road journey. The Pacers rank sixth defensively, the Nets 27th. Indiana is giving up 12 fewer points per game than the Nets. Center Myles Turner is back from an ankle injury and looked good in his last game. Power forward Domantas Sabonis is having a strong season on a string of seven straight double/doubles. Turner and Sabonis give the Pacers a frontcourt edge. Indiana is minus injured guard Malcolm Brogdon. That's a significant missing piece. However, the Nets' guard advantage is reduced with LeVert sidelined. The Pacers have covered in nine of their last 11 games against the Nets, including covering the last five times in Brooklyn. | |||||||
11-17-19 | Hawks +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
The Lakers had to laugh at Atlanta if they were watching any of the Hawks-Clippers Saturday night game. The Clippers won, 150-101. It was the Hawks' worst loss since moving to Atlanta from St. Louis. The Lakers can't help but take the Hawks for granted. Look for the Hawks, though, to play the Lakers tough in this matchup. Not only is there the embarrassment factor from Saturday night, but the Hawks also shouldn't feel the normal fatigue associated with playing on the second of consecutive nights. Only one Atlanta player reached the 30-minute level Saturday due to the blowout. The game also was played at Staples Center, an arena both the Clippers and Lakers use as their home-court. So there is no travel involved for the Hawks. Note these trends, too: The Hawks have covered 11 of their last 16 road contests and are 9-5 ATS versus above .500 foes. | |||||||
11-16-19 | St Bonaventure v. Rutgers -8.5 | 80-74 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
St. Bonaventure can't shoot. The Bonnies are making just 35 percent from the floor and 23 percent from 3-point range. The result is they are averaging fewer than 60 points per game and are 0-3. I don't see St. Bonaventure ending its shooting woes against Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are 3-0 and ranked 32nd in the country in scoring defense holding opponents to 55.7 points a game. Note this game is being played in Toronto as part of the James Naismith Hall of Fame Classic. Rutgers is playing much better right now than St. Bonaventure. So I'll go ahead and ride the Scarlet Knights against the cold-shooting Bonnies. | |||||||
11-15-19 | Gonzaga -6 v. Texas A&M | Top | 79-49 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
Guess what? Gonzaga is going to be good again this season - real good. The Bulldogs are ranked seventh in the KenPom rankings and that high rating is totally justified. The Zags have reloaded. They are strong at every position with excellent depth. Each of their three games has been a blowout victory. The Bulldogs rank third in the nation in scoring per 100 possessions and also are No. 2 in field goal percentage. They are undoubtedly a top-five offense. Texas A&M has tuned-up well for Gonzaga meeting two weak foes, Northwestern State and Louisiana Monroe. The Aggies didn't come close to covering big spreads against those foes. Texas A&M ranks 66th in KenPom's rankings. The Bulldogs buried the Aggies, 94-71, last season and hold a huge talent edge again this season. | |||||||
11-15-19 | Spurs +3.5 v. Magic | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
The Spurs are in a rough patch right now with three straight losses, including a 129-114 road loss to the Timberwolves in their last game this past Wednesday. However, the Spurs still are superior to the Magic. The situation sets up for the Spurs here and there is splendid line value, too. The Timberwolves played great in beating San Antonio. It happens. Teams run into a hot-shooting foe who comes in with their "A" game. Minnesota is a very improved team, too. The Spurs are not the dominant serious title contender of years past. But they remain a quality team with the best coach in the league, Gregg Popovich. The Magic are getting respect from the oddsmaker based on their last game, which was a smashing, 112-97, home victory versus the 76ers. Note, though, the 76ers were playing their second road game in 48 hours and sat out Joel Embiid. The Magic had been idle the previous two days so the situation set up great for them. This game isn't an ideal spot for the Magic. The Spurs are in full stop-the-pain mode. Even with their high scoring effort against the 76ers, the Magic still rank last in scoring and second-to-last in field goal percentage. | |||||||
11-14-19 | Mavs -7 v. Knicks | 103-106 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
I want the Mavericks going for me in this rapid revenge spot. The Knicks stunned the Mavericks this past Friday upsetting Dallas, 106-102, as 11-point road underdogs. The Knicks made a stunning 14 of 28 shots from 3-point range. New York ranks last in the league in field goal percentage and second-to-last in scoring. So that truly was a fluke shooting performance. Since that victory, the Knicks have lost to the Bulls and Cavaliers by an average of 19.5 points. New York is 2-9 on the season. The Mavericks last played on Monday, losing, 116-106, to the sizzling Celtics. Dallas is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 road games. | |||||||
11-13-19 | Wizards +9 v. Celtics | Top | 133-140 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
Washington is a lottery team. But that doesn't mean the Wizards lack talent. They are more than just the Bradley Beal show with promising youngsters Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant and Davis Bertans. The Wizards have a winning spread mark and are in an excellent situational spot here. Washington last played on Friday. The Wizards should be rested and motivated after being embarrassed at home by the Cavaliers in a 113-100 loss this past Friday. The Celtics are without Gordon Hayward, who suffered a broken hand during the weekend. Hayward was playing at an All-Star level. Boston managed to defeat the Mavericks, 116-106, on Monday without Hayward. This will be the Celtics' second game without Hayward so their motivation may not be as high. Focus could be an issue, too, for Boston. The Celtics take off for a five-game West Coast swing following this matchup. Boston takes on Golden State Friday on national TV. The Celtics' depth, lessened with Hayward's injury, will be tested since this is Boston's fourth game in seven days. The Celtics haven't been good at home either from a point spread perspective going 4-11-1 ATS the past 16 times. | |||||||
11-12-19 | Lakers -135 v. Suns | 123-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Suns on their unexpected 6-3 start. The Suns have been winning, too, despite Deandre Ayton being suspended. But the Lakers also have been winning with LeBron James putting up triple/double numbers. I like LA off a 113-104 home loss to the Raptors on Sunday. That ended LA's seven-game win streak. There's a chance Anthony Davis doesn't play because of a sore shoulder. There's also a possibility that point guard Rajon Rondo makes his season debut. I like the Lakers regardless of either player's status. The key for me is the Lakers' third-ranked defense and No. 3 ranking in 3-point defense. The Suns have been beating opponents with their 3-point marksmanship. I anticipate they are going to have problems hitting their perimeter shots against the Lakers, which they need to do without Ayton in the middle. | |||||||
11-12-19 | Miami-FL -1 v. UCF | 79-70 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
Sharp money has come on Miami and I agree. The Hurricanes should be ready for their first road game having already faced Louisville. The Hurricanes have the talent and ballhandlers to limit their mistakes. Central Florida was very good - last season. The Knights lost most of their team from a year ago retaining just three players. They didn't look good in their opening game, a 73-69 victory against Prairie View. The Knights didn't come close to covering as 16 1/2-point home favorites. Miami is catching Central Florida at a good time, very early in the season. | |||||||
11-09-19 | Pelicans -111 v. Hornets | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
Charlotte has been a mild surprise so far splitting its first eight games. I consider the Hornets, though, one of the weakest teams in the NBA. The Pelicans have the superior talent even without injured Zion Williamson. I rate Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball ahead of anyone on Charlotte's roster. New Orleans should be motivated after being embarrassed, 122-104, at home by the Raptors on Friday. The Hornets just defeated the Pacers and lost to the Celtics. They have the 76ers on deck Sunday in a bigger game. This is their lone non-conference matchup during this four-game span. The Pelicans average nearly 12 more points per game than the Hornets. Lack of defense is the killer for New Orleans. But the Hornets don't have enough scorers to take advantage of that weakness. | |||||||
11-09-19 | Idaho +12.5 v. UC Riverside | 51-58 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a letdown from Cal-Riverside. The Highlanders opened their season with a stunning 66-47 road win against Nebraska. Riverside was 15 1/2-point underdogs. In hindsight, though, the inexperienced Cornhuskers should not have been such a heavy favorite. I don't believe Riverside is that good. The Highlanders were 3-10 in non-league play last season with a point differential of minus 7.8 points. The Vandals have covered five of their last six games going back to last season. The Highlanders are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. | |||||||
11-08-19 | Illinois -7 v. Grand Canyon | 83-71 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
There is a huge talent gap between these two schools. Maybe the oddsmaker was swayed by Illinois having to go into overtime to dispatch Nicholls State, a 22 1/2-point 'dog, in its opener. Because this line is way short especially given the circumstances at Grand Canyon. The Antelopes lost, 82-73, at home to Division II opponent Davenport in their opener. Grand Canyon received bad news before that game that two of its best players, forward Oscar Frayer and guard Jaylen Fisher, would not be eligible until second semster because of academic troubles. This has really reduced Grand Canyon's depth as Antelopes coach Dan Majerle used just a seven-man rotation. Illinois shouldn't be nearly as tight at it was in its opener. The Illini have a strong guard tandem in Andres Feliz and Ayo Dosunmu and also a pair of promising big men in 6-foot-9 Giorgi Bezhanishvili and 7-footer Kofi Cockburn. | |||||||
11-08-19 | Raptors v. Pelicans UNDER 235 | 122-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
These teams met opening night and the Raptors won, 130-122, in overtime. There were 234 points scored in regulation. The total sailed Over a consensus closing total of 229 1/2. Now we have a much higher total in a revenge spot for the home Pelicans with both teams talking about playing better defense and having had first-hand experience against each other. I trust Nick Nurse to make solid adjustments to keep the Pelicans' scoring down. Nurse proved himself during the playoffs last season. The Raptors allow 108.7 points and rank No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. Nurse wasn't happy, though, with the Raptors' defense in their last game, a 124-120 home win against the Kings two nights ago. The Kings were hot from deep range tying a franchise-record with 20 3-pointers. The Pelicans are the Pelicans. They are a high-scoring team that doesn't play much defense. It is difficult to get involved going Under in their games. But New Orleans coach Alvin Gentry is talking about defensive improvement and said a way to do that is be more patient on offense and not play such a helter-skelter style. If the Pelicans do slow things down it would be huge for the Under. It takes a lot to go Over a total this high. There is enough evidence for me here to go Under. | |||||||
11-07-19 | Thunder v. Spurs -4.5 | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
Even when they had Russell Westbrook and Paul George, the Thunder still couldn't cover when playing in San Antonio. The Spurs have covered the past five times hosting Oklahoma City. I like the Spurs here to make it six straight home covers. Oklahoma City is coming off a 102-94 home win against Orlando on Tuesday. The Magic are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA and they got cold down the stretch against the Thunder. Now the Thunder draw a different foe in a different setting both of which are much more difficult. The Spurs are trying to avoid a three-game losing streak having lost, 103-96, at home to the Lakers and 108-100 to the Hawks on the road on Tuesday. The Thunder has played only two road games the last occurring back on Oct. 28. Oklahoma City is 0-2 away from home with a five-point loss to the Jazz and four-point defeat to the Rockets. San Antonio is the superior team, home and in a better situation trying to halt a mini-losing streak before it gets out of hand. | |||||||
11-06-19 | Bucks +1 v. Clippers | 129-124 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
I don't know if this line will hold in the morning when bookmakers realize the Clippers are resting Kawhi Leonard. I believe the Bucks are the best team in the NBA. The Clippers don't have Paul George yet and with Leonard sitting out they are not as good as Milwaukee. So I will lock into the Bucks now. Leonard was leading the Clippers in scoring, rebounding, assists and steals. Sparked by superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks were leading the NBA in scoring at 121.3 points per game. | |||||||
11-06-19 | 76ers v. Jazz -125 | 104-106 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
Utah is in stop-the-pain mode with a two-game losing streak. The Jazz have been idle since Sunday. It's the first time since the season began the Jazz have had a two-day break between games. They should be well prepared and motivated. The 76ers, on the other hand, are playing their third road game in five days. The 76ers have a strong starting lineup, but weak bench. Philadelphia does get back Joel Embiid following his two-game suspension. The 76ers really missed him when they lost, 114-109, to the Suns on Monday. The Jazz have maybe the best rim protector in the league, Rudy Gobert, to slow down Embiid. | |||||||
11-06-19 | Belmont v. Illinois State +6.5 | Top | 72-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
Belmont is coming off an outstanding season. But the Bruins could struggle in this opener. They are a team in transition right now playing with a new coach following the retirement of Rick Byrd and losing their two leading scorers from last season, Dylan Windler and Kevin McClain. Windler averaged 21.3 points and 10.8 rebounds. The Bruins draw Illinois State, a middle-of-the-road Missouri Valley Conference team. MVC schools are known for defense and slow tempos. Illinois State is no exception. I can see the Redbirds frustrating the Bruins at home and getting the cover if not pulling off the outright upset. | |||||||
11-05-19 | St. Mary's v. Wisconsin UNDER 129.5 | Top | 65-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a very good opening game, especially if you like defense. Saint Mary's plays at a slow, deliberate tempo under coach Randy Bennett. The Gaels have ranked among the bottom-10 percent in average possession length during each of the last six seasons. Wisconsin finished fourth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings last season. There is going to be an adjustment period, too, for the Badgers on offense with Ethan Happ gone. He was the focal part of Wisconsin's offense last season. Note this matchup is being played at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. So both teams will be dealing with a completely different environment in a small setting. Keep in mind, too, the new rule where the 3-point line has been moved back to the international distance. That's going to reduce the number of 3-pointers made. | |||||||
11-05-19 | Magic +2.5 v. Thunder | 94-102 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
It's easy to be down on Orlando. The Magic are the only NBA team yet to reach triple digits. They rank last in scoring and field goal percentage. Behind that headline, though, are the Magic ranking No. 2 defensively in the league holding foes to 98.2 points per game. Oklahoma City is way down from last season. Chris Paul is the Thunder's lone star and he's off to a slow start. The Thunder also could be without their best big man as center Steven Adams has missed the last two games with a knee injury. The Magic are way overdue to have a good shooting game. They have a decent perimeter shootier in Evan Fournier to go with strong inside players Aaron Gordon and All-Star Nikola Vucevic. Orlando has covered in six of its last seven trips to Oklahoma City. | |||||||
11-04-19 | Rockets -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 107-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
A 13-point road loss to the Nets this past Friday followed by a humilitating 129-100 defeat to the Heat on Sunday. Now do the Rockets lose for a third straight time? No. I'm getting behind the Rockets in stop-the-pain mode. I understand the Rockets are not in sync and their defense is horrible. But this game sets up well for Houston. The Grizzlies are among the worst teams in the NBA. They are in serious rebuild and won't be seeing positive signs for a while fielding an extremely young lineup with a new coach. Memphis also isn't likely to have their most promising big man, Jaren Jackson Jr. He's questionable with a sore knee. James Harden and Russell Westbrook each played less than half of the game in the blowout loss to the Heat. The prideful superstars should be in line for huge performances as Memphis is really struggling, too, defensively. The Rockets have covered five of the last six in the series. | |||||||
11-01-19 | Bucks -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Both Milwaukee and Orlando are 2-2. But that's where the similarity ends. The Bucks were the best team in the NBA during the regular season last year - and they could be even better this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a favorite to win MVP honors. The Bucks have drawn three tough opponents during their first four games - Rockets, Heat and Celtics. The Magic are a borderline playoff team. Orlando has faced three easy opponents in its first four games - Cavaliers, Hawks and Knicks. Yet, the Magic are last in the league in scoring at 95.8 points per game. That's 24 fewer points per game than what the Bucks average. Milwaukee is off a road loss to the Celtics. The Bucks are 22-7 ATS following a defeat. This spread is too low given the quality of the two teams and the Bucks being in bounce-back mode. | |||||||
10-30-19 | Pistons +9 v. Raptors | Top | 113-125 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Games against Toronto always hold extra meaning now for Detroit. That's become they come against Pistons coach Dwane Casey's former team. Casey knows the Raptors and their personnel well having been their head coach for seven seasons until two years ago. The Pistons went 3-0 versus the Raptors last season and they should be up for this one, too. Detroit has covered in six of its last eight visits to Toronto. This is the Raptors' fourth game in six days. Toronto's next game is much bigger - at the Bucks. Blake Griffin isn't back for Detroit yet. But the Pistons have been getting solid play from Christian Wood. He looked good during preseason and that has carried into the season. | |||||||
10-28-19 | Cavs v. Bucks -15 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Bucks are in the mood for a blowout after kicking away a 21-point lead at home in a 131-126 overtime loss to the Heat on Saturday. Giannis Antetokounmpo is off to a fast start. The Cavaliers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and have inexperienced guards. Cleveland, though, is coming off an emotional 110-99 home victory against Indiana on Saturday. The Cavaliers played extremely well in that contest in giving coach Jim Beilein his first pro victory. I don't think the youthful Cavaliers have the maturity to stay close to maybe the best team in the NBA while taking to the road. The Bucks are 21-7 ATS following a defeat. The Bucks are 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times laying double-digits. They beat the Cavaliers twice at home last season with the average winning margin being 19 points. | |||||||
10-27-19 | Heat v. Wolves -6.5 | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
Great play from center Karl-Anthony Towns. The continuity of fielding the same lineup from last season. A good vibe under 33-year-old head coach Ryan Saunders, son of the late coach Flip Saunders. These are all factors why the Timberwolves are off to a 2-0 start. I expect Minnesota to move that record to 3-0 today as they are not only playing well but in a great situational spot. Minnesota draws Miami at home after the Heat just upset the Bucks, 131-126 in overtime, at Milwaukee on Saturday. The Heat accomplished this without Jimmy Butler, who won't play today either. Obviously this is a monster letdown spot for the Heat. | |||||||
10-26-19 | Raptors -3 v. Bulls | 108-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
This line is too short. Both teams did play last night and won. The Raptors haven't fully developed their bench yet, but their seven-man rotation should not get fatigued this early into the season. Plus the Raptors had previously played last Tuesday when they opened the season. So they've had ample rest. Toronto is much the superior team. Even without Kawhi Leonard the Raptors are among the four top teams in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are a borderline playoff team at best. Chicago lost to Charlotte in its first game. The Hornets could be the worst team in the NBA. Chicago then defeated Memphis, 110-102, last night in Memphis. So the Bulls won't be rested either flying in during the early morning hours. The Raptors have played the stronger competition going against New Orleans Boston last night. The Raptors lost, 112-106, to the Celtics on the road. Toronto is 11-3 ATS the past 14 times when playing on zero rest. The Raptors have the guard play with Kyle Lowery and Fred VanVleet to take advantage of the Bulls' weak transition defense. Toronto dominated the Bulls last season winning all four games by an average of 19.2 points. | |||||||
10-25-19 | Blazers -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 122-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
Let's just say Luke Walton's coaching debut with the Kings was less than stellar. That's as kind as I can put it. Sacramento was whipped by the lowly Suns, 124-95, at Phoenix this past Wednesday. The Kings had Marvin Bagley and Buddy Hield in that game. Those are two of their three best players with Bagley being their top big man. Bagley is out now with a broken right thumb and Hield is questionable with an ankle sprain. He didn't practice on Thursday. The Kings are in transition learning Walton's system and now they have to adjust again. The youthful Kings are going to encounter an angry Trail Blazers squad that had their 18-game win streak in home openers ended by Denver this past Wednesday. Portland caught a hot Denver team that made 18 of 32 3-pointers while the Trail Blazers missed 21 of 28 shots from beyond the arc. I trust All-Star guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum far more than what Sacramento has right now. I also like Portland coach Terry Stotts much more than Walton. Portland is 17-8-2 ATS(68%) following a point spread loss. | |||||||
10-24-19 | Clippers -123 v. Warriors | 141-122 | Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show | |
The Clippers don't have Paul George yet. They do have Kawhi Leoanrd and maybe the best bench in the NBA. They also have played one game while the Warriors have yet to see action. I consider that a huge advantage for the Clippers. Take away Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguadola and Shaun Livingston and Golden State isn't the dominant force and team to beat as in years past. Now the Warriors are merely playoff contenders. The Clippers looked extremely good in beating the Lakers, 112-102, on Wednesday. They have the depth and defenders to bother Stephen Curry. LA certainly won't lack motivation. The Warriors eliminated the Clippers in the playoffs last season. | |||||||
10-24-19 | Hawks v. Pistons | 117-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Surprised by this game being in the pick range? Apparently there is some negative Detroit sentiment due to the Pistons playing Wednesday and being without Blake Griffin. He will miss the first five games of the season with an injured hamstring and sore knee. But I like that the Pistons already have played a game - and what a game! They defeated the Pacers on the road, 119-110. Andre Drummond had a monster performance with 32 points and 23 rebounds. An important takeaway is the Pistons' bench outscoring Indiana's reserves, 57-16. Now the Pistons play at home for the first time drawing the rebuilding Hawks. Atlanta has some intriguing young talent. But the Hawks are still in rebuild mode after having won fewer than 30 games each of the last two seasons. This is their first game of the season. Detroit doesn't just want to hand back that great opening night win by falling at home to Atlanta. The Pistons should be pumped. Fatigue shouldn't be such a big factor this early in the season and Detroit showed it has a bench. It's not too much to ask the Pistons just to win this game without having to cover a margin. | |||||||
10-23-19 | Wolves +4 v. Nets | Top | 127-126 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
I like the Nets and their coach, Kenny Atkinson. Let me be more precise, though. I like and prefer the Nets in an underdog role. They made a huge splash in free agency signing Kyrie Irving, DeAndre Jordan and Kevin Durant, who likely is out for this season. The Nets are getting ahead of themselves. I'm not sold on them being a better team than the Timberwolves. Certainly Minnesota will have the best big man on the court in Karl-Anthony Towns. The Timberwolves bring back the same team from last season. That's a plus because of the continuity. The Nets had good chemistry last season. Let's see if that continues and how things work now that they have Irving, who didn't turn out to be a good fit for Boston last season. It's not a plus either for the Nets that they spend some of their preseason in China. By contrast, Minnesota is under-the-radar right now. Timberwolves coach Ryan Saunders is just 33, the youngest coach in the NBA. He has the Timberwolves playing up-tempo and firing up 3-pointers. That's popular with his players. The Timberwolves don't take a backseat to the Nets in terms of talent with a healthy and rejuvenated Jeff Teague at point guard, wing players Andrew Wiggins and Robert Covington along with Towns, one of the best big men in the game. | |||||||
10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 231.5 | Top | 122-130 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
Maybe if Zion Williamson and Kawhi Leonard were playing this high of a total might be justified. But they aren't. So Under is the way to go here. Williamson gave a glimpse of just how good he is during preseason averaging 23.3 points and shooting 71.4 percent from the floor before suffering a knee injury. Now the Pelicans have to figure out their offense and scoring roles with go-to-guy Williamson out. New Orleans is breaking in four new starters. So there's a double adjustment period. Jrue Holiday is an offensive-minded point guard. Brandon Ingram has a hig ceiling. But the Pelicans' three other starters - Lonzo Ball, Derrick Favors and Kenrich Williams - are not big scorers. Toronto had a top-10 defense last season ranking ninth in defensive scoring and fifth in defensive field goal percentage. The Raptors are patient on offense moreso now with Leonard gone and Marc Gasol becoming a large part of the team. Gasol also is a strong defender. Note, too, the teams concluded preseason this past Friday. So there could be a rust factor. | |||||||
06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -140 | 114-110 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
The Warriors won an extremely difficult road game this past Monday in Game 5. Golden State came back despite the horror of seeing Kevin Durant suffer a ruptured Achilles tendon and being down six points with three minutes left. The Warriors aren't champions for nothing. Not only are they a great team - even without Durant - but they have tremendous intangibles. I don't see them giving up their crown at home in what will be their final game at Oracle Arena. The team will be moving to the Chase Center in San Francisco next season. The proud Warriors don't have Durant, but they know that now for sure going into this matchup. Proper adjustments will be made. They do have a healthy Klay Thompson, Kevin Looney and DeMarcus Cousins. That's enough firepower given the greatness of Stephen Curry. The Warriors have the talent, savvy and coaching to hold off the upstart Raptors. | |||||||
06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors UNDER 211.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 6 m | Show |
It's easy to think offense with these two teams even without Kevin Durant. But these are two excellent, underrated defensive teams. The tempo has been down six possessions the past two games and the defensive intensity should be at its highest in this Game 6 with the Warriors facing elimination at home. Golden State has been bothered by Toronto's wing span and athleticism. Kawhi Leonard is a superstar because he's a great two-way player. The Warriors are averaging less than 100 points during their last two games. The Under has covered 75 percent of the time during Toronto's last 13 road games. The Warriors have held the Raptors to 105 points or less in three of the last four games. | |||||||
06-10-19 | Warriors v. Raptors OVER 213.5 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
I'm expecting Kevin Durant to play. That changes everything for Golden State especially on the offensive end. Toronto no longer will be able to double team and trap Stephen Curry. The Warriors already have Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney back in the lineup. So they have numerous scoring options. Golden State was the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA this season while ranking first in field goal percentage. They also ranked No. 3 in 3-point shooting accuracy. The Over is 6-1-1 during the Warriors' last eight road games. The Raptors are averaging 112.5 points in the series. They aren't going to dial back their offense, which ranked eighth in scoring during the regular season and fifth in field goal percentage. Kawhi Leonard is unstoppable and the Raptors' bench has emerged as a scoring entity. The Over has cashed the past six times the Raptors have hosted the Warriors. | |||||||
06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Perhaps the Raptors do win the NBA Finals. But I don't see the Warriors going down a second straight time at home especially with Klay Thompson expected to play. Call it a rhythm or zig-zag play, but the Warriors are due to shoot better in this series. The Raptors are fat and happy after upsetting the Warriors, 123-109, in Game 3 on Wednesday and knowing Kevin Durant remains out. Before pouring dirt over the Warriors, let's remember just two games ago in Game 2 at Toronto. The Warriors held the Raptors to 37.2 percent shooting from the floor and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. The result was a 109-104 Golden State victory. I see this Game 4 matchup resembling that Game 2. The Warriors have the big-game NBA Finals-pedigree, a powerful situational edge being home down 2-1 and the quality defense to clamp down on the Raptors, who have been getting far better shooting games from a number of players than what was realistically expected from them. | |||||||
06-02-19 | Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 215 | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
I'm expecting a top-notch defensive performance from the Warriors in this Game 2 after losing Game 1. Draymond Green ripped the Warriors' transition defense following the game. The Raptors are going to hold up their share on the defensive end, too, with their length and tenacity. The tempo in Game 1 was not fast. Yet the total still sailed Over. Why? Try unbelievable shooting. The Raptors sank 59 percent of their two-point field goals. The teams combined to sink 56 of 63 free throws for 89 percent! The Raptors hit tough shot after tough shot. Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and Marc Gasol combined to hit 25 of 35 shots from the floor. That's not going to happen again, nor are the two teams likely to combine to make nearly 90 percent of their free throws. | |||||||
05-30-19 | Warriors +1 v. Raptors | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 56 m | Show |
I give Toronto tremendous credit for overcoming Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals. I also believe the Raptors have the best player on the court in Kawhi Leonard. But Toronto is not in Golden State's class. The Warriors are a level higher. Disagree? Look at the series price. That should tell you what the oddsmaker believes. So I am not buying the Raptors opening a favorite in Game 1 of this championship series. The Warriors know they must win at least one road game to take this series. They will be fully prepared to give a strong effort in this opener. They have had extra prep time from sweeping the Trail Blazers, which helps Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson get healthy. The Raptors lack the Warriors' Championship Series experience having never been to this stage before. You wonder if they still might be on Cloud 9 after taking out the Bucks. The Warriors are 7-3 ATS when playing on three days rest or more. The Raptors are 1-8 ATS in that situation. Golden State always gets off to a good start in the playoffs winning 18 of 19 Game 1's under Steve Kerr, including going 3-0 this season beating the Clippers, Rockets and Trail Blazers by a combined 43 points in its series openers. Toronto, by contrast, lost Game 1 to the Magic and Bucks. There has been some sentiment towards Toronto because the Warriors weren't that sharp despite sweeping the Trail Blazers and Kevin Durant won't be in action. The Warriors have adjusted to Duran't absence, though. Curry and Thompson are shooting more and their bench play has picked up. Golden State's defense has been solid, too. The loss of Durant isn't enough to go against the Warrors at this price point. | |||||||
05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 213 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 35 h 54 m | Show |
Lost in the glare of superstars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard is the fact Milwaukee and Toronto are two very good defensive teams. The Bucks ranked No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage and defensive efficiency. If you discount a flat performance in Game 4, the Bucks have held the Raptors to an average of 102.5 points in regulation during the four other games in this Eastern Conference Finals. Nick Nurse has shown during this series that he is a very good coach with the defensive adjustments he has made. Leonard is a very strong defensive presence and the Raptors have the wing span and athletes to throw the Bucks off their shooting game. The Bucks are just 21 of 66 from 3-point range during the past two games for a shooting percentage of 31.8 percent. That's down nearly five percentage points from what the Bucks shot from beyond the arc during the regular season. The pace has slowed down, too. I don't see that changing in this pivotal Game 6 close-out game with the intensity level at full blast. | |||||||
05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 105-99 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
Look, you either believe in the Bucks, or you don't. I do - especially when they are home like here. Milwaukee had the best regular season mark both SU (straight-up) and ATS (against the spread). It has been the same in the playoffs where the Bucks have won and covered 10 of 13 times. The Bucks didn't play up to their capability in Game 3 yet it took two overtimes for the Raptors to put them away at home. I thought the Bucks would play much better in Game 4. The Raptors, to their credit, stepped up and protected their home floor with an impressive 120-102 win. Nick Nurse made some key defensive adjustments and Toronto's role players came through. Now it's the Bucks' turn. Perhaps it's just being glib to say that, but these are the facts: The Bucks are 21-5 ATS following a loss. They have covered 18 of the last 24 times after not covering in their previous game. They also haven't lost three games in a row all season! The Bucks are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. They also ranked first in offensive rebounding. They are deeper than Toronto, better on the boards and stronger defensively finishing No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. In my view, there are only three players who can trump the greatness of Kawhi Leonard. That being LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has the advantage of being at home and healthier than Leonard, who has been hindered by a left leg injury. This is a big spread. I understand that. I hate having to lay more than six, which is a key number in the NBA. But so far the spread has not factored in any of the Bucks' 13 playoff games. The winner of the game covered the spread every time. There's the possibility, too, of the Raptors waving the white flag if they were to fall too far behind by resting Leonard knowing how important he'll be for Games 6 and 7. | |||||||
05-21-19 | Bucks -135 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -135 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
The Bucks didn't play well in Game 3. The result was a 118-112 double overtime road loss to the Raptors. Expect the Bucks to play much in this Game 4. The oddsmaker expects that. The difference is reflected in Milwaukee opening as a road favorite instead of an underdog as they did in Game 3. The oddsmaker has it right. The Bucks are the side I want going for me. Milwaukee has by far the better depth. This is huge because the Raptors are gassed especially Kawhi Leonard, who is playing hurt. The Raptors have no shot if Leonard doesn't produce a monster game. The Bucks have won and covered 10 of their 12 playoff games. It's not a big surprise considering they had the best SU and ATS mark during the regular season, too. Milwaukee also has been great in revenge spots - 12-1 SU, 10-2-1 ATS off a loss. | |||||||
05-19-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 112-118 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
We saw it in Game 3 with the Warriors beating the Trail Blazers by 11 points on Saturday. We're likely to see it here, too, in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The superior team is an underdog on the road yet easily wins straight-up. Maybe the Raptors can break that mold. I doubt it, though. Milwaukee was the best point spread team during the regular season. Milwaukee is the best ATS team in the postseason, too, going 9-1 SU and ATS. The Bucks have outscored the Raptors by 35 points during the last five quarters. What's become clear is the Raptors aren't good enough, nor deep enough, to beat the Bucks. Toronto hasn't solved Milwaukee's offense, nor its defense, averaging 101.5 points in the series, which is 13 points below its season average. The Bucks have too many weapons to go with with Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Raptors to keep up. Kawhi Leonard doesn't have the bench help, nor the veteran step-up that the Bucks have been providing for Antetokounmpo. | |||||||
05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -127 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -127 | 20 h 47 m | Show |
Normally I would have a hard time laying points with the inferior team. But this is the Trail Blazers' game to win - and I see them getting the job down here at home in this Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals being down 2-0. Portland showed it can outplay the Warriors. The Trail Blazers should have won Game 2 at Golden State, but blew a 17-point second half lead in losing, 114-111. The Trail Blazers have proven resilient all season especially in the postseason. They took out the Thunder in the first round after being swept by Oklahoma City during the regular season. Then they came back from a 3-2 series deficit to eliminate the Nuggets winning Game 7 in Denver. Portland's Terry Stotts is a very underrated coach. I like the adjustments he made from Game 1 to Game 2 in this series, including tighting up the Trail Blazers' pick-and-roll defense, putting Moe Harkless on Stephen Curry and freeing up CJ McCollum for better looks on his jumpers. If McCollum and Damian Lillard had even their normal shooting games the Trail Blazers likely win Game 2. The All-Star backcourt tandem, though, shot a combined 15-of-39 (38.4 percent) from the field. The pair missed 10 of their 12 fourth-quarter field goals. Those two are due to shoot much better. Portland shouldn't fold up either with the switch in venues to their home-court. Certainly the Trail Blazers won't lack intensity down 2-0 while the Warriors have to be feeling fat and happy. Not having Kevin Durant is going to catch up to the Warriors. | |||||||
05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
The Bucks not only finished with the best record in the NBA during the regular season, but also the best point spread mark covering 60 percent of their games. Milwaukee has been even better in the playoffs winning and covering nine of 10 games. The Bucks even covered a 6.5-point spread in Game 1 against Toronto despite not playing well until the very end. The Bucks were a bit rusty and Giannis Antetokounmpo is capable of much better. Look for the Bucks and superstar Antetokounmpo to step up their game here. If that's the case, Milwaukee should win by double-digits for the eighth time in 11 postseason games. Milwaukee is a dominant home team, is much deeper than Toronto and Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton are strong enough defenders to bother Kawhi Leonard. The Bucks aren't totally dependent on Antetokounmpo like the Raptors are on their superstar, Leonard. The Raptors had to go the full seven game limit with the 76ers in the Eastern Conference semifinals. That took a toll on Leonard, who was babied during the regular season often sitting out games for rest purposes. Now Leonard is dealing with tough defenders and a fatigue factor. Kyle Lowery played extremely well in Game 1 of this series. But Lowery hasn't looked very good up until this point. I doubt he keeps that up. The Raptors have grown too accustomed to watching and waiting on Leonard to close out games. He's not going to be able to do that against this caliber of elite opponent. Leonard needs help and so far key Raptors aren't providing that. Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam and Danny Green aren't hitting clutch shots. The Bucks have covered five of the last six matchups against the Raptors. They are the superior team with upside considering their Game 1 performance. Toronto had their chance in Game 1 and blew it. Look for the Bucks to win this game much more handily. | |||||||
05-16-19 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 217.5 | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
The Warriors don't need Kevin Durant to produce a lot of points. They are averaging 117 points in their last two games minus Durant. Stephen Curry is stepping up and Golden State's reserves are scoring much better. It helps that the Trail Blazers lack rim protection with Jusuf Nurkic out. Portland is giving up an average of 113.2 points during its last five games discounting its 100-96 victory against the Nuggets. A key to making this Over work is Portland getting its points. I expect the Trail Blazers to be less tight and shoot much better than the 36.1 percent they shot in Game 1 while committing a ghastly 21 turnovers. I like the open looks both teams were getting in Game 1. Damian Lillard was just 4-for-12 from the floor in the first game. Look for Lillard to play more aggressive and have a much more productive scoring game. | |||||||
05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks -6 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
I want the Bucks going for me here in this Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Toronto has been up and down and fortunate to survive a Game 7 against the 76ers, Milwaukee has been dominant in the postseason just like in the regular season. The Bucks have won and covered eight of nine playoff games with seven of the eight victories occurring by double-digits. Milwaukee's average winning margin is 15.3 points. The Bucks don't want a repeat of their last series when they were ambushed at home by the Celtics in Game 1. Milwaukee hasn't lost since with Antetokounmpo averaging 30 points during the last four games. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard are a trade-off. Both rank among the top five players in the NBA. Milwaukee, though, is getting better backcourt play and is the deeper team. The Bucks have had the proper response for everything the Pistons and Celtics threw at them. It's a huge added bonus for the Bucks that underrated guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned after being out seven weeks with a foot injury. He may be the Bucks' best defender. The Bucks defeated the Raptors in three of four regular season meetings and have covered four of the past five in the series. | |||||||
05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors -7.5 | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
Much is being made of Kevin Durant being out with a strained calf. But the Trail Blazers have their own injuries to deal with as Enes Kanter has a separated shoulder and Rodney Hood a hyperextended knee. Both are likely to play, but at less than 100 percent. Keep in mind, too, the Trail Blazers remain without their best big man, Jusuf Nurkic. Golden State has proven it can step up without Durant. Just ask the Rockets, who happen to be at least a tier higher than the Trail Blazers. Not only do the Warriors have home-court here, but also a favorable spot. Golden State hasn't played since Friday when it upset the Rockets on the road to end that series. Steve Kerr and his brain trust have had ample time to study the Trail Blazers and how best to utilize their players knowing Durant won't be on the court. The Trail Blazers are off a brutal seven-game series against the Nuggets that didn't conclude until this past Sunday with Portland scoring an upset road victory. The Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS the past six times following a victory. They can't be blamed for coming up flat here with such little time to savor their huge series win against Denver. | |||||||
05-12-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Toronto doesn't deserve to be trusted in clutch playoff games given its track record. The Raptors also have been terrible in this role going 9-18 ATS the past 27 times when favored by six points or fewer. Kawhi Leonard is the best player on the court. But Joel Embiid is close behind. Embiid had a huge Game 6 posting a plus-minus ratio of plus 40. Embiid has helped the 76ers outrebound the Raptors by 47 rebounds during the series, an average of 7.8 per game. Health is the key for Embiid. He was healthy in Game 6, which was played on Thursday. So he's had a full two days to rest. I prefer Ben Simmons over Kyle Lowery at point guard and Jimmy Butler is there to lend his considerable skill and veteran leadership to the 76ers. | |||||||
05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 108-119 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
If the Trail Blazers are going to force a Game 7 with a home victory here in Game 6 they likely are going to have to do it with defense. Portland is averaging 102.2 points during regulation in its last four games. Portland heavily relies on the scoring of guard Damian Lillard, who is shooting just 39.2 percent from the floor during the past four games. The Trail Blazers aren't getting much frontcourt scoring production with Jusuf Nurkic out and Enes Kanter dealing with a separated shoulder and honoring Ramadan by not eating from sunrise to sunset. Kanter has managed only 14 points in the last two games making just 4-of-14 shots from the field. These teams do not play at a fast pace. I envision a slow-moving, ultra intense defensive battle. | |||||||
05-08-19 | Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
Some believed the Rockets were better than the Warriors last season when the teams met in the Western Conference Finals. But then Chris Paul got hurt and had to miss Games 6 and 7. The Warriors took advantage to win those games and the series. Paul is healthy this time around. The Rockets are improved and the Warriors have gotten worse. If there is any separation between the two teams now it is minimal at best, which is proven by no team winning by more than six points during the first four games of the series. These games have all been close down to the wire affairs. Yes, the Warriors are home now. But Houston has momentum and confidence having won two in a row. The Warriors are showing more fatigue. Their bench is struggling with just a combined 18 points during the past two games. Stephen Curry isn't 100 percent. Golden State also doesn't have a good point spread track record at Oracle Arena just 11-23-1 ATS (32 percent) the past 35 times there. | |||||||
05-05-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 210.5 | 116-112 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
Lost in the glare of the Trail Blazers' amazing 140-137 four-overtime victory against the Nuggets on Friday was that regulation ended, 102-102. That's a combined 204 points. Now, less than 48 hours later, the teams go at it again both facing a heavy fatigue factor. Many of the top players are coming off the heavest one-game work loads of their career. Some played an obsence amount of minutes: Nikola Jokic (64:58), CJ McCollum (60:01), Damian Lillard (57:59), Enes Kanter (56:58 on a separated shoulder) and Jamal Murray (55:03). This is unchartered territory for these players to come back strong after such a game. This is playoff basketball and the defensive intensity is sure to be up while the legs can't be there for jump shots. So I'm projecting a low-scoring, intense battle. | |||||||
05-03-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -127 | 123-116 | Loss | -127 | 18 h 59 m | Show | |
Boston got its split in Milwaukee. I don't see the Bucks getting the better of the Celtics in this Game 3, which will be their toughest road playoff game yet. I like Bucks coach Mike Budenholzer. He deserves to be Coach of the Year. Still, he's trumped by Brad Stevens, who I regard as the best coach in the Eastern Conference. I trust Stevens to make the necessary adjustments with the teams having last played on Tuesday when the Bucks blew out the Celtics. Boston has covered six of the last seven times it has hosted Milwaukee. The Bucks are still likely to be without guard Malcolm Brogdon, who has missed the last 1 1/2 months with plantar fasciitis. Brogdon is the Bucks' best defensive player and the most underrated player on the team. This could be the Bucks' toughest game of the season - and the line is fair enough to back Boston. | |||||||
04-30-19 | Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 109-115 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
The Warriors escaped the Rockets last season in the Western Conference finals winning in seven games. Chris Paul didn't play in Games 6 and 7 last season because of injury. The Rockets lost both of those games. Paul is healthy now, the Rockets are better than they were at this time a year ago and the Warroirs are worse. The Rockets nearly beat Golden State in Game 1, but lost 104-100 because of official's calls that didn't go their way, making less than 30 percent of their 3-point shots and James Harden having a terrible shooting game going just 9-for-28 from the floor. I expect Harden to shoot much better. I also expect more calls to go in Houston's favor after the NBA has come under scrutiny for the unfair officiating against the Rockets when Houston faced the Warriors last year and in Game 1. P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela combined to score only four points on 1-for-6 shooting from the floor in Sunday's game. They should do much better especially Capela. The Rockets could be the most underrated defensive team in the NBA. They finished No. 2 in defensive efficiency during the final 15 games of the regular season. They held the Warriors 13 points below their season average while forcing 20 turnovers and coming up with 14 steals. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are less than 100 percent because of ankle injuries. DeMarcus Cousins is out. The Warriors are one of the worst point spread home teams going 10-23-1 (30.3 percent) in their last 34 games at Oracle Arena, including failing to cover 12 of the last 18 times. Houston has covered four of the past five times on the road against Golden State. | |||||||
04-29-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets UNDER 216.5 | Top | 113-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Portland should have plenty of energy having been idle for six days. I see that energy being exerted defensively as their jump-shooting could suffer after such a long layoff. The Trail Blazers are 7-3-1 to the Under in their last 11 road games. The Nuggets aren't going to look to push pace after concluding a grueling seven-game series with the Spurs on Saturday winning, 90-86, at home. Denver gave up the sixth-fewest points per game in the NBA this season. More important, the Nuggets ranked No. 1 in 3-point defense. That's bad news for Portland guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Trail Blazers heavily rely on the outside scoring of those two. The Under has cashed in 13 of the Nuggets' last 16 home games. | |||||||
04-27-19 | 76ers +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 95-108 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
I'll go with the 76ers' superior starting lineup against the Raptors' deeper bench. Toronto's depth may factor later on in this series, but for now both teams are fresh and should have their full energy. Philly has too many weapons for the Raptors. It's going to take Toronto coach Nick Nurse a lot longer to figure out the 76ers than it did the Magic, the weakest of any of the playoff teams. The Raptors don't have enough weapons to contain Joe Embiid, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, JJ Redick and Ben Simmons, who I'll take over Kyle Lowery in the pivotal point guard matchup. The Raptors have yet to prove they have exorcized their playoff demons. They lost at home in Game 1 to the Magic and are 0-8 ATS the past eight times when playing after three or more days rest. The 76ers are ready to take that next playoff step. They are confident coming off four straight wins and covers against the Nets, who are a better team than the Magic. | |||||||
04-26-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 233 | Top | 129-110 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
Look for the Warriors to play intense defense after being upset, 129-121, at home by the Clippers in Game 5 on Wednesday. Golden State held the Clippers to 105 points after LA pulled a 135-131 win in Game 2. I expect a similar effort from the Warriors, who finished No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage during the regular season, in this Game 6. Yes, there were 250 combined points in Game 5. But the pace was slow. The Clippers made an unbelievable 54.1 percent from the floor. They shot 47 percent from the field during the regular season. They made 42.5 percent of their field goals in Game 4 and hit only 37.2 percent in Game 3. So the Clippers' shooting percentage in Game 5 clearly was an outlier. Note, too, the two teams combined to make 44 of 48 free throws in Game 5 for 92 percent. That's certainly unlikely to be repeated, too, in this next game. Golden State actually has been a sneaky Under team. The Under has won in 18 of the Warriors' past 26 games. | |||||||
04-25-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -2.5 | 103-120 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Denver has made key necessary defensive adjustments to win the last two games and take a 3-2 series lead. Now it's up to Gregg Popovich and the Spurs to counter. I see the Spurs doing that especially playing at home. Popovich has long been the best coach in the NBA. The Nuggets have a terrible track record when playing at San Antonio having lost 14 of the past 15 times there, are 3-7 ATS following a pointspread cover and 4-10 ATS when playing on one day's rest. Denver hasn't won a playoff series since 2009. LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan are due to step for the Spurs. | |||||||
04-24-19 | Jazz v. Rockets UNDER 213 | 93-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Utah has made the necessary defensive adjustments after getting blown out in the first two games of this series. Since then, the Jazz have held the Rockets to an average of 97.5 points in the last two games and under 40 percent shooting from the floor. This isn't a fluke. The Jazz always have been an elite defensive club. Rudy Gobert may be the best rim protector in basketball. The Rockets have been playing excellent defense for the past six weeks. This is going to be physical, intense matchup where defense should dominate. The Under has cashed six of the last eight times the teams have met. | |||||||
04-23-19 | Nets +8.5 v. 76ers | 100-122 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Nets have proven spunky all season, almost always coming through with a hard effort. I don't see them going quietly through the night on the brink of playoff elimination here. This has been a bitter series. The Nets are down 3-1, but the series very well could be tied at 2-2. Brooklyn blew a 101-94 lead with 5:20 left in Game 4 before losing 104-101 on Saturday. Brooklyn has covered in seven of its past nine road games. The 76ers have a vast array of talent. But they have some immaturity and don't know how to win yet, which makes them vulnerable to overconfidence in this matchup. The Nets have excellent backcourt scoring depth and I like that their coach, Kenny Gattison, has shortened the rotation. | |||||||
04-22-19 | Rockets -2.5 v. Jazz | 91-107 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
It was a given the Jazz were going to produce their best effort in Game 3 at home after losing the first two games to the Rockets on the road by an average of 26 points. Utah did just that. The Jazz held the great James Harden to 3-of-20 shooting from the floor and the Rockets to 38.4 percent from the field. Yet the Rockets still won and covered beating the favored Jazz by three points. The oddsmaker is done making the Jazz a favorite again. The demoralized Jazz aren't going to be the first team in NBA playoff history to come back from a 3-0 deficit and win a series. Harden isn't going to have a shooting game like that again. The Rockets want to end this series fast to keep pace with the Warriors. The Jazz lack the confidence and morale to come back here to win a game. Utah needs Donovan Mitchell to shoot well to hang with Houston and that hasn't been happening. Mitchell has made just 32.8 percent of his shots from the floor. | |||||||
04-21-19 | Raptors v. Magic +5.5 | 107-85 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
I like the Magic in an underdog role especially going against foes with a winning record. Orlando is 16-5-1 ATS the past 22 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. I see the Magic giving it their best shot not wanting to go into Toronto down 3-1. The Magic lost 98-93 to the Raptors this past Friday. That was their first home playoff game in seven years. The Magic should be less tight now. Orlando needs Nikola Vucevic to step up. He got going in Game 3 after being kept in check the first two games of the series. Toronto is 2-6-1 ATS the past nine times against Orlando. | |||||||
04-21-19 | Raptors v. Magic UNDER 207 | 107-85 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
The evidence is crystal clear. These teams have played three games so far in their first-round playoff series and the Under has won each time. The combined average score in these three games is 196.3 points. The Raptors have forced 44 Orlando turnovers and held the Magic to 37.8 percent shooting from the floor. Orlando is going to be at its most intense for this matchup. The Magic ranked fifth defensively during the regular season. So a strong defensive battle should ensue helped by both teams favoring a slow tempo. The Under has cashed the past seven times the Raptors have played in Orlando. | |||||||
04-20-19 | Bucks v. Pistons OVER 216 | 119-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
The Pistons haven't been able to slow down Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 25 points during the first two games of this series. Milwaukee has scored 121 and 120 points, respectively, in the series. The Bucks are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. Detroit doesn't have the defense to stop them. The Over has cashed in eight of the Bucks' last 11 road contests. So the Pistons need to ratch up their offense, which they can do at home. Detroit is due to shoot much better than the 37.7 percent it is averaging from the field. It's a plus for the Pistons and the Over if Blake Griffin is able to play. He's questionable. | |||||||
04-20-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 117-103 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
The Nuggets haven't won in San Antonio in more than seven years, losing 14 straight times to the Spurs on the road. I don't see that changing here in Game 4 of their playoff series. The Spurs should be up 3-0 instead of 2-1, but blew a 19-point lead midway through the third quarter in Game 2. They are the clear better team and they have a strong home-court history. Second-year guard Derrick White has stepped up big-time for San Antonio giving the Spurs three major weapons along with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs have those players going for them along with a huge gap in playoff experience. While the Nuggets are involved in their first postseason experience since 2013, the Spurs are in the playoffs for the 22nd straight season. | |||||||
04-19-19 | Celtics v. Pacers -3 | 104-96 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 47 m | Show | |
The good news for Indiana is its No. 1 ranked defense has held Boston to an average of 91.5 points during the first two games of this series. The bad news is the Pacers are down 0-2 in the series because their shooting has been way off. The Pacers, though, are far from outclassed. They led the Celtics by seven points at halftime in Game 1. They were leading Boston with less than a minute left in Game 2 before somehow failing to cover a 7 1/2-point underdog spread in a 99-91 loss. Sure Indiana misses its top scorer, Victor Oladipo. But the Pacers are due to shoot much better than 38.8 pecent from the floor. Boston ranks eighth defensively. However, the Pacers have failed to connect on shots in which they had a good look at the basket. Myles Turner, Darren Collison and Thaddeus Young should step up. The Pacers have a strong history of dramatically playing much better at home. The Celtics won just one of their eight road playoff games last season. | |||||||
04-19-19 | Raptors -4.5 v. Magic | Top | 98-93 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
Nice job by the Magic in reaching the playoffs this season and upsetting the Raptors in Game 1. The clock struck midnight, though, for the Magic in Game 2 when they were buried, 111-82, by Toronto this past Tuesday. The Raptors are vastly superior. They could be among the four best teams in the NBA. The Magic can't hang against this type of focused opponent especially when their best player, Nikola Vucevic, can't produce. Vucevic has been held to an average of 8.5 points a game making just six-of-21 shots from the field. | |||||||
04-18-19 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 237 | Top | 132-105 | Push | 0 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
Golden State has great scorers. Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson helped the Warriors finish as the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA this season. But the Warriors also are good defensively. They ranked No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage. The Under has cashed in 19 of Golden State's last 26 games. Look for the Warriors to play concentrated, intense defense for 48 minutes after they squandered a 31-point third quarter lead in Game 2 in losing 135-131 at home to the Clippers. The Under has cashed a staggering 75 percent the past 33 times the Warriors have played after a loss. Making things even worse for the Warriors was losing center DeMarcus Cousins with a serious quad injury. His replacement, Andrew Bogut, played a season-high 17 minutes. The addition of Bogut at the expense of Cousins is huge for the Under. The Clippers aren't as good of a defensive club as the Warriors. But with the series now tied 1-1 and the scene shifting to LA, the Warriors know they are in for a battle. So expect both defenses to be at their peak. | |||||||
04-18-19 | Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5 | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
I don't see the Nuggets ending a 13-game losing streak at San Antonio and upsetting the Spurs. The Spurs have far more playoff experience. They have dominated the Nuggets for 6 1/2 of the eight quarters during the first two playoff games of this series, both of which were in Denver. The prideful Spurs should have gone 2-0 against the Nuggets, but blew Game 2 in the series after leading by 19 points nearly midway through the third quarter. Denver is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times following a victory. | |||||||
04-18-19 | 76ers v. Nets UNDER 227.5 | 131-115 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
It's easy to envision a high scoring game here after the 76ers buried the Nets, 145-123, on Monday in Game 2. But there is one key factor to consider: Jared Dudley is expected to play for the Nets. He missed Monday's game because of a sore calf. Dudley played in Game 1 and the Nets upset the 76ers, 111-102, with that total going Under by 13 1/2 points. Dudley's defense on Ben Simmons was huge in that Game 1 win for the Nets as Simmons could manage just nine points. Simmons posted a triple/double in Game 2 without Dudley to hound and frustrate him. Prior to Monday's loss to Philadelphia, Brooklyn had given up an average of 97.3 points in its last three games. The Nets have gone Under in six of their last seven home games. The Nets are sure to have their defensive intensity going as this is their first home playoff game since 2015. It would be a huge added bonus for the Under if Joel Embiid can't go for the 76ers. Embiid is dealing with a sore knee. | |||||||
04-16-19 | Thunder v. Blazers OVER 221 | Top | 94-114 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
Portland couldn't stop Russell Westbrook or Paul George during the regular season. They couldn't stop them in Game 1 of this playoff series. Only George and Westbrook can stop themselves by having bad shooting games. That's what happened in Game 1 as Westbrook, George and star reserve guard Dennis Schroder combined to make just four of 26 shots from 3-point range. George made only 8-of-24 shots from the field in Oklahoma City's 104-99 loss on Sunday. Now we have a slightly lower total and a strong belief the Thunder will shoot much better than 39.8 percent from the field and do far better than make just 5-of-33 shots from beyond the arc. Oklahoma City averaged a seventh-best 114.5 points per game during the regular season. The Trail Blazers' defense took a hit after losing center Jusuf Nurkic for the season with a broken leg. George says he's 100 percent now after being bothered by a sore right shoulder that kept him from playing in the Thunder's final regular season game. Portland didn't shoot well either in Game 1 making only 41.9 percent of its field goals. The Trail Blazers are the sixth-highest scoring team in the league averaging 114.7 points a game. They ranked ninth in 3-point percentage yet missed 11 of 15 3-point shots during the final three quarters. CJ McCollum is getting less rusty after missing 10 games down the stretch with a knee injury. Enes Kanter has stepped up well for Nurkic. Kanter is a better offensive player than defensive player. Both teams are strong when it comes to offensive rebounding. The Over has cashed in 75 percent of Portland's last 21 home contests going 15-5-1. | |||||||
04-15-19 | Clippers v. Warriors OVER 230.5 | 135-131 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
After all eight first-round playoff games went Under the total, I'm expected scoring to spike up in some of the Game 2's, including this one. The Warriors are the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA. No team shoots better from the floor than the Warriors. The Clippers ranked No. 5 in scoring. The tempo was there for an Over in Game 1. But the rust factor kicked in. The Clippers shot just 40.4 percent from the field. Their playoff inexperience from some of their youngsters showed. Expect a more efficient performance from LA. Golden State produced 121 points in Game 1. A big takeaway was the return to health of Stephen Curry, who was sizzling and scored 38 points. The Clippers are well below average defensively ranking 25th. The Warriors are fully healthy and capable of putting up a huge number versus this defense. The Over has cashed in nine of the last 12 games between the two teams. |
Service | Profit |
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ProSportsPicks | $1,066 |
Jack Jones | $960 |
Big Al McMordie | $876 |
Ross Benjamin | $740 |
Ray Monohan | $702 |
Jimmy Boyd | $424 |
Nick Parsons | $414 |
Ricky Tran | $343 |
Kyle Hunter | $265 |
Matt Fargo | $175 |