Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-24-17 | Nets v. Nuggets -10 | Top | 109-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
This handicap works both ways. The Nets are the worst team in the NBA losers of 25 of their last 26, including their last 14. The Nuggets would be in the playoffs if the postseason began now. But Denver is in a precarious spot with the Kings, Trail Blazers and Pelicans all close behind. Denver suffered an embarrassing 116-100 road loss to the Kings last night. But playing last night is a huge plus for the Nuggets because they got their post All-Star break rust off. Three of their key players also returned to the lineup - Danilo Gallinari (groin), Kenneth Faried (ankle) and Wilson Chandler (illness) - after being out. Gallinari and Chandler played decently. The Nets now are the ones that are going to be rusty. A horrendous road team anyways with a 2-23 away mark, the Nets got even worse during All-Star break trading away their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic in order to play for the future. The youthful, immature and sure-to-be rusty Nets could have trouble focusing after being idle since Feb. 15. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have revenge motivation for a five-point road loss to the Nets. The Nuggets have a good coach, Michael Malone. He'll be stressing that the Nuggets can't afford to lose this home game to such a bad team. So Denver's urgency should be extremely high. Certainly the Nuggets have the firepower to blow out the Nets ranking fourth in scoring at 110.5 points a game. Brooklyn has the worst defense in the NBA surrendering 114.2 points per game. Denver has covered in eight of its last 10 home games. The Nuggets also are 6-1 ATS the past seven times after losing by more than 10 points. | |||||||
02-24-17 | Yale +5.5 v. Harvard | 64-77 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
Yale is in stop-the-pain mode having lost three in a row. They are in short revenge against Harvard, a team the Bulldogs lost to 75-67 at home 13 days ago. The Bulldogs were favored by four in that game. Now we have nearly a 10-point line swing. Yale has a strong track record when playing on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record going 21-9-2 ATS. The Bulldogs also have covered in their last four visits to Harvard. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Nuggets v. Kings +7.5 | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
The Kings have received lots of negative feedback for dealing DeMarcus Cousins. It's obvious the Kings are playing for the future despite trailing the Nuggets by just 1 1/2 games for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. However, the Kings should be especially fired-up for this matchup - their first game minus Cousins. The remaining Kings have pride and want to prove themselves. The Kings are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games. They've defeated Denver four consecutive times. The Nuggets have a lot of youth. They're not accustomed to be favored to take care of business on the road laying these many points. Focus could be an issue for the Nuggets here, while the Kings have something to prove. Sacramento figures to be the more motivated team. Denver also has a number of injured players due back who could be rusty, including streak shooter Danilo Gallnari and Kenneth Faried. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Rockets -3 v. Pelicans | 129-99 | Win | 100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
Houston has defeated New Orleans six of the past seven times, including burying the Pelicans, 122-100, when the teams last met in mid-December at Houston. A lot is different now. This will be DeMarcus Cousins' debut with New Orleans. He'll team up with Anthony Davis to give the Pelicans an imposing front line. However, it's going to take time for Cousins, Davis and the rest of the Pelicans to adjust. It remains to be seen if Alvin Gentry can make this a good fit. I have my doubts since I don't consider Gentry a good coach. There's going to be a lot of fanfare for this game being Cousins' debut with New Orleans. The Pelicans aren't used to these type of distractions and lack the poise and experience to handle them. The Rockets certainly won't be taking the Pelicans lightly now. Houston made an NBA-record 24 3-points in the earlier victory against New Orleans. The Rockets rank No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 114.4 points and they do it by firing 3-pointers all the time. They should have success shooting their 3's against the Pelicans' Twin Towers new look. The Rockets are a bad matchup for the Pelicans. Houston's offense should be even better after acquiring guard Louis Williams from the Lakers. Williams is having an excellent season and will fit right in with the Rockets. The Rockets have covered 19 of their last 27 Western Conference games. The Pelicans are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when playing on three or more days rest. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Blazers -2.5 v. Magic | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
Portland is the superior team and should be rejuvenated coming out of the break. The Trail Blazers trailed the Nuggets by two games for the final spot in the Western Conference playoffs. Orlando is a bottom-feeder from the inferior Eastern Conference. The demoralized Magic have lost 17 of their last 22 games and will be missing the postseason for the fifth consecutive season. The Magic rank 29th in scoring and Frank Vogel has not upgraded their defense. The Trail Blazers hold a monster backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Portland upgraded its frontcourt trading for Jusuf Nurkic while the the Magic got worse by dealing away big man Serge Ibaka. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Massachusetts v. George Washington -5 | 67-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
George Washington is an average Atlantic 10 team. But they are the superior team here and can take advantage of the Minutemen's struggling defense that has yielded an average of 81.8 points in the last five games. UMass has lost seven of its last eight games. The Colonials come into the game with a little momentum having defeated Duquesne in their last game, 77-70, on the road. George Washington plays stronger defensive at home surrendering 64.4 points. | |||||||
02-23-17 | Jacksonville State -120 v. Eastern Kentucky | 65-68 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
This is more a fade on Eastern Kentucky than a play on Jacksonville State as the Colonels have lost five in a row. | |||||||
02-22-17 | Fresno State +8.5 v. San Diego State | 63-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
Fresno State got hot in mid-February last season ending up capturing the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The buy sign is on the Bulldogs again as they've won and covered their last two games. | |||||||
02-22-17 | Drake +12.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 65-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
Drake is going through growing pains this season. But the Bulldogs did beat Loyola, 102-98, late last month. That was the fifth time they've covered against Loyola in the past six meetings. This has been an underdog series, too, with the 'dog getting the money the past five times. Loyola is 1-5 in its last 6. The Ramblers are off a tough loss to Missouri Valley Conference co-leader Illinois State falling 65-63 this past Sunday. A long shot rimmed out at the buzzer that would have given Loyola the victory. So it' going to be difficult for the Ramblers to get up for this game, let along cover a big number like this in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley. | |||||||
02-22-17 | Manhattan +7 v. Rider | 82-93 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Rider may not have its full intensity, which is needed to cover this mid-range number, after upsetting Iona on the road this past Sunday as a 9 1/2-point 'dog. Rider had lost four of its previous five games before pulling the upset. | |||||||
02-22-17 | St. Louis +22 v. VCU | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
VCU is in a huge look ahead spot as its next two games are against the other top two teams in the Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island and Dayton. The Rams matchup versus Dayton likely will decide the Atlantic 10 title. I can easily envision a letdown spot for VCU with the Rams taking their foot off the pedal. VCU is 6-15-1 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The key is can the Billikens hang in? I believe they can. Saint Louis is an above average defensive team. The Billikens should play with a full amount of intensity after a bad loss to Fordham in their last game this past Saturday. Travis Ford has done a nice job coaching Saints Louis and he called out his players for lack of effort and passion following that loss to Fordham. Up until their last two games, Saint Louis had been on a nice point spread run. The Billikens are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 7-1 ATS following a loss and a tough team to cover a large margin against because of their slow pace. | |||||||
02-21-17 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
I'm going to ride the Yellow Jackets here. They haven't lost a home game since Jan. 7 and that was versus Louisville. Among their home wins have been conference victories against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame. They have covered nine of their last 11. The teams met in mid-January and Georgia Tech won by 10 on the road. North Carolina State has dropped and failed to cover seven in a row. Mark Gottfried is a lame duck coach having already been fired. The Wolfpack fell behind Notre Dame by 23 points before losing by nine at home in their last game after getting the news about Gottfried. The Wolfpack lost to the Irish despite shooting 51.7 percent from the floor. Georgia Tech has the 16th best defensive field goal percentage in the country. Now the Wolfpack go on the road. They have lost their last three away games by a combined 79 points! | |||||||
02-21-17 | Cleveland State -143 v. Detroit | 83-91 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Cleveland State destroyed Detroit by 17 points in the first meeting between the teams. The Vikings are in stop-the-pain mode and should win again. They have drawn early sharp action. | |||||||
02-20-17 | Texas +16 v. West Virginia | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
Texas is 0-12 on the road and at neutral sites this season. But we're not talking about a crazy money line play here. The Longhorns just need to stay fairly close, something they mostly do having not lost by more than 15 points during their past 23 games. Some of the Longhorns' road problems can be attributed to starting four underclassmen. But these young players - Jarrett Allen, Andrew Jones and Kerwin Roach to name three - are talented. Allen is a 6-foot-11 freshman who could get taken in the NBA lottery. While the Longhorns don't win on the road, they do cover spreads. Texas is 11-5 ATS the past 16 times as a road underdog. The Longhorns have lost by 10 or less points away from home against Oklahoma (by four), versus Georgia (by two), against Kansas (by two), versus Baylor (by 10), against Iowa State (by nine) and against Kansas State (by three). West Virginia just nipped Texas, 74-72, when the teams met for the first time this season on Jan. 14. The Longhorns have had tremendous point spread success versus West Virginia covering eight of the last nine times. | |||||||
02-20-17 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia OVER 118 | 54-48 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Yes, these are two very strong defenses. But this total is just too low, an overcompensation for that. | |||||||
02-19-17 | Syracuse v. Georgia Tech +4 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a huge game for Georgia Tech and the Yellow Jackets are expecting a rare sellout crowd in their efforts to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. The Yellow Jackets have held foes to 36 percent shooting from the floor at home. Georgia Tech has covered eight of its last 10 games and is 4-0 ATS during its past four home games. Syracuse has won just two road games all season - by one point and in overtime. The Orangemen's defense hasn't been nearly as good away from home. They have failed to cover seven of their last nine road matchups. | |||||||
02-19-17 | UNLV +13.5 v. San Diego State | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
San Diego State won't have a sellout for the fourth straight game. The Aztecs' home-court isn't as strong as before. Their coach, Steve Fisher, is good friends with his former assistant and now UNLV coach Marvin Menzies. The Rebels have lost six in a row, but four have been by four points or less. San Diego State is 2-7 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The Aztecs don't have enough offense to cover this number. | |||||||
02-18-17 | Florida Atlantic -3 v. Southern Miss | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic has won eight of its last 10 road games and catches Southern Mississippi off an overtime upset victory against Florida International. Prior to that victory, Southern Mississippi had lost six of its last seven games. While the Golden Eagles are a bit fat and happy, the Owls are in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row, including an overtime defeat to Rice. The Golden Eagles are 7-15-1 ATS following a SU win. I see this line as short to back the better team in a good spot. | |||||||
02-17-17 | VCU v. Richmond +5.5 | 84-73 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
This is enough points to get me involved with Richmond in this revenge spot for a loss to VCU at the beginning of the month. The line is inflated because the Spiders are off a 23-point rod loss to George Mason. Prior to that defeat, though, Richmond had covered five in a row while going 4-1. The lone defeat during this span was to VCU. The Rams shot nearly 52 percent from the floor in that game. Now VCU is a good shooting team, but not nearly that good and Richmond is solidly defensively. Only 12 teams have a better 3-point shooting defense than the Spiders. Richmond always has been a good play as a home 'dog going 20-9-1 ATS in that role. | |||||||
02-17-17 | Fairfield -118 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
The Metro Atlantic Athletic conference takes center stage today in a limited college basketball menu. Fairfield has covered the past six times as road chalk and is such a short favorite that a money line play is warranted because of the low juice. Fairfield has revenge for a 73-71 home loss to Quinipiac 11 days ago when it blew an 11-point lead with seven minutes left. The Staggs were four-point favorites in that contest. It was not one of Fairfield's better performances, but it was more on the Staggs than the Bobcats. That also was Fairfield's only loss during its past six games. The Staggs have won tougher road games than this one. Quinnipiac drew less than 600 fans to its last home game, which was a 31-point loss to St. Peter's. The Staggs are 8-2 ATS versus sub .500 teams. Quinnipiac is 2-5 in its last seven games. I don't see the Bobcats coming away with a sweep. | |||||||
02-17-17 | Idaho +5.5 v. Eastern Washington | 67-77 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Idaho did lose its last game. But prior to that the team had gone 7-1 SU and a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Expect the Vandal to bounce back in a revenge spot. They were 5 1/2-point home favorites in the first meeting and now the line is the complete opposite. | |||||||
02-16-17 | Celtics v. Bulls OVER 212 | Top | 103-104 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
The figure is 29 out of the last 30. That's how many times Boston has reached triple digits during its last 30 games. The Celtics have scored a minimum of 107 points in 13 of their last 14 games and are averaging 114.7 points during their past four games. The over is 9-2-1 in Boston's last 12 road games. So I see the Celtics during their part to get this total to go over. But how about the Bulls? Well, their defense had been atrocious up until their last game, a 105-94 home win versus Toronto two days ago. The Bulls had surrendered 100 or more points in nine consecutive games until beating the Raptors, allowing their previous four opponents before Toronto to shoot at least 50 percent from the field. The key to making this over work is Chicago's offense, which ranks 27th in field goal percentage and 29th in 3-point shooting. The over buy sign is there on the Bulls, though, following that Raptors victory. The Bulls played at a faster than usual pace for them resulting in 20 fast-break points. Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg was quite pleased with the up-tempo style particularly how effective it was for bench players Doug McDermott, Cristiano Felicio and Denzel Valentine. So expect the Bulls to play quick again especially trying to take advantage of Boston having to play without rest. This is the last game before the All-Star break, too, so both teams should be holding nothing back. Jimmy Butler is back for Chicago and is slated to play without any minutes restrictions. Dwayne Wade has been ruled out, but Nikola Mirotic is expected to play after missing the last two games. | |||||||
02-16-17 | Wisconsin +2.5 v. Michigan | 58-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
The Badgers won't have senior Bronson Koenig when they take on Michigan. But the tradeoff is getting Wisconsin at this number. Koenig, who averages 13.4 points, actually hasn't been that effective since injuring his calf on Jan. 24. The Badgers have the depth and defense - fourth in the nation in scoring defense - to withstand his absence. I consider the Badgers the best team in the Big Ten and they won't lack for motivation following a 66-59 loss to Northwestern this past Sunday that ended their eight-game losing streak. The Badgers have beaten the Wolverines seven of the past eight times, including the last five. | |||||||
02-15-17 | St. John's v. Butler -9 | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
I see this as a kill spot for Butler. The Bulldogs are just 1-3 in their last four games desperate for a confidence-building blowout win and in revenge mode, here, too, for a three-point road upset loss to St. John's in late December. Butler is tough at home. The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 14 home contests and are 8-1-1 ATS following a loss. They had covered four in a row against St. John's until the past meeting. | |||||||
02-15-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Twice these teams have met this season and the Celtics have won by one and four points, respectively. The 76ers have won three in a row. They've covered 19 of their last 26. They are deserving of more respect than this especially considering the situation. The Celtics haven't played at home in 10 days. They just returned from a four-game road trip going 3-1 burying Dallas, 111-98, on Monday night. Boston plays again tomorrow night at Chicago while this is the 76ers' final game going into the All-Star break. So a full effort should be forthcoming from the 76ers while the Celtics, distracted by finally coming back home, may have to hold something back for the Bulls. Boston has been favored by eight or more points eight times this season. Not once have they covered a spread in that role. The Celtics have also failed to cover during their last four home games and are 2-5 ATS following a victory. The 76ers aren't likely to have Joel Embiid, their best player. But Dario Saric and Nerlens Noel have stepped up recently. Saric is averaging 20.8 points and 6.5 rebounds during his last four games. Philadelphia is 8-5 ATS during the last 13 games Embiid has missed. | |||||||
02-15-17 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Kansas State | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Kansas State has dropped five of its last six games with its lone victory during this time frame coming by just two points. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS, too, when laying less than 10 points. Iowa State has dominated this series winning five of the last six times. The Cyclones have proven themselves as 'dogs knocking off Kansas on the road along with away victories against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. When catching three or more points, the Cyclones are 5-0 ATS. Iowa State has been receiving good low-post play from Solomon Young lately. | |||||||
02-14-17 | Kings v. Lakers -127 | 97-96 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
The Lakers last were home on Jan. 31. They won't play at home again until 12 days from now. So this game is a big deal to LA. The Lakers have won their last two home games beating the Pacers by 13 points and Nuggets by four. LA actually has covered seven of its last eight. This includes road victories by 14 against the Knicks and by eight against the Bucks during the past eight days. The Kings are down Rudy Gay and may also be without backup point guard Ty Lawson. | |||||||
02-14-17 | Dayton v. St. Louis +14 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
OK, let's get this out of the way right away. Dayton has the best defense in the Atlantic 10. Kyle Davis is an outstanding player leading the conference both in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Flyers are an impressive team going 46-12 in their last 58 league games, but I don't see them covering this big of a road number against the improved Billikens. Saint Louis has covered the past six times it has been a 'dog. The team has covered nine of its last 10. The Billikens draw the fourth-highest crowd support in the league. They've won their last four home games and own upset home victories against Duquesne, Massachusetts and George Mason since Jan. 25. Saint Louis nearly defeated Dayton at home last season leading by nine with seven minutes left before falling in overtime. The Billikens were worse last season yet almost beat Dayton losing by three as 13-point 'dogs. The Billikens are improved both defensively and offensively topping 75 points in three of their last four games. The spot is excellent, too, for Saint Louis. The Billikens have their confidence up and catch Dayton off a huge underdog road victory against Rhode Island. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Celtics v. Mavs OVER 208.5 | 111-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
I have to ride the Celtics and over here. Boston has scored at least 106 points in 13 of its last 14 games. The Celtics have put up 112 or more points in seven of their last 10 games. The over has cashed in nine of Boston's last 11 road games. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Pistons v. Bucks -3 | Top | 89-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
OK, the shock of losing Jabari Parker for the season due to a torn ACL has worn off for Milwaukee. This will be the Bucks' third game without their second-best player. Kris Middleton is back now and the Bucks need to have this game trailing the Pistons by two game for the final playoff spot in the East. The buy sign finally is on Milwaukee after the Bucks pasted the Pacers, 116-100, at Indiana this past Saturday. That was a huge confidence and morale boost for the Bucks. The Pacers are one of the better home teams in the league. This also is Middleton's third game back since returning from a torn hamstring that had kept him out the entire season so he should be less rusty. The Pistons just upset the Raptors, 102-101, on Sunday coming from 16 points down in the fourth quarter to pull it off. It's going to be hard for Detroit to retain that intensity for a second consecutive game and fourth game in six days. The Pistons are 3-7 when playing without rest and 5-12 ATS during their past 17 games versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Bucks have done well versus Detroit covering nine of the last 12 meetings, including going 4-1 ATS in Milwaukee. Monday Free Play Magic Plus the Points at Heat I'm going to test a handicapping theory. It's the play-against the hot team that just had their long winning streak snapped. In this case it's fade the Miami Heat. The Heat appeared to have their lottery reservations well in order when they lost 30 of their first 41 games. But a funny thing happened on the way to crying about the glory days of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. The Heat got hot proving you should never count out the underrated coaching of Erik Spoelstra. Miami rattled off an NBA-high 13-game win streak, longest in league history for a sub-.500 team. The historic streak ended this past Saturday when the 76ers took advantage of a flat Miami road performance to beat the Heat, 117-109. Miami committed 20 turnovers and had just 15 assists in the loss. Now the Heat return to South Florida perhaps missing Dion Waiters for a fourth straight game due to a ankle injury. The team's third-leading scorer is questionable. So there very well could be a lingering deflation for the Heat. Waiters would be missed because he's the only other respectable scoring threat besides Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. The catch in going against the Heat in this spot is backing the Magic, losers of 12 of their last 15. This is a sure-fire lottery team, devoid of hope dragging into All-Star break with shot morale and daily trade rumors suggesting a thorough housecleaning. Frank Vogel hasn't fixed Orlando's defense, which ranks 20th and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Magic just surrendered 112 points in a 32-point road loss to the Mavericks this past Saturday. Dallas happens to be the lowest-scoring team in the NBA averaging 98.2 points. Miami is averaging 112.3 points in its last eight games. That would rank third in the NBA if compounded during the entire season. The Heat still have averaged 107.6 points during their last three games minus Waiters. At least the Magic should be highly motivated, right? They off an embarrassing loss in which their effort was questioned and now play their in-state rival. The Magic have the big men with Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic to keep Whiteside from going crazy. The Magic also are 11-6 ATS when catching seven or more points. So let's give the theory a test. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Arkansas State v. Texas State UNDER 129.5 | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
These two teams rank among the top three in the Sun Belt Conference in defensive efficiency. Texas State is adept at controlling tempo when playing at home and the Bobcats are going to play half-court here ranking 344th in tempo. The under has cashed in five of Texas State's past seven home games. That's fine with Arkansas State, which ranks 212th in tempo. The line is set too high in my view because Arkansas State has been shooting well. However, the Red Wolves are taking a step up in defensive competition. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Rider v. Fairfield -3.5 | 67-69 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Rider is a poor road team especially when stepping up failing to cover nine of the last 12 times versus home teams that are above .500. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Baylor -2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 78-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
If it weren't for beating last place Oklahoma, Texas Tech would be 0-6 in its last six Big 12 Conference games. The Red Raiders did get up in a big way to play Kansas at home this past Saturday losing 80-79 at the wire. I don't see the Red Raiders being able to come back that strong just two days later against sixth-ranked Baylor. The Bears are a school-best 22-3 through 25 games and have one of the top players in the nation, Johnathan Motley. In short turnarounds such as this for both teams, talent usually trumps. Baylor has been a huge money-maker on the road, too, gong 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 away contests. The Bears are 4-2 in conference road games with the losses coming to Kansas and West Virginia, the two teams along with themselves that are vying for the Big 12 title. It's tough to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders are not in the class of Kansas and West Virginia. | |||||||
02-12-17 | Oregon State +26 v. UCLA | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
It's hard to make a case for Oregon State except to point out the spot. It's a major letdown situation for UCLA following the Bruins' 82-79 victory against sixth-ranked Oregon on Thursday. Oregon State played the Bruins fairly tight in the first meeting losing 76-63. The Bruins also had just played Oregon before that game. Stephen Thompson Jr., Oregon's second-leading scorer, is from LA and should be pumped. The Beavers have done well from an ATS standpoint in this series covering eight of the last 10. UCLA often is overpriced, which is the case here. The Bruins are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 Pac-12 games and 1-5 ATS the past six times they've been home chalk. | |||||||
02-12-17 | Nevada +4 v. San Diego State | Top | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
These teams met early last month in Reno and Nevada won, 72-69, as two-point favorites. A key to the Wolf Pack's victory was outrebounding the Aztecs by 12 boards. Nevada is the better rebounding team, leads the Mountain West in 3-point defense and outscores San Diego State by an average of 10 points a game. The Wolf Pack have the matchup edges, motivation and history to beat the Aztecs straight-up again. San Diego State still plays outstanding defense. However, the Aztecs have lost some of their home mystique with losses to New Mexico and Colorado State since the calendar turned 2017. The Aztecs are a bad rebounding team - ranking last in the Mountain West in defensive rebounding - and have trouble scoring ranking last in the conference in scoring and free throws attempted per game. The Aztecs rely on defense and 3-point shooting. They rank 284th, though, in 3-point accuracy and Nevada has a strong perimeter defense. The Wolf Pack are in a dogfight with Boise State and Colorado State to win the Mountain West. The big question is can the Wolf Pack win on the road? They had a bad loss to Utah State, falling 74-57 on Feb. 1, in their last road game. Prior to that game, however, the Wolf Pack posted three consecutive road victories defeating New Mexico, Wyoming and Boise State. The wins against Wyoming and Boise State were in blowout fashion. My feeling is Nevada learned from that road loss to Utah State and should produce a high level game here. Nevada has been a huge money-maker in this spread range covering 13 of the last 16 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack also is 18-6-2 ATS the last 26 times facing an above .500 foes. | |||||||
02-11-17 | Celtics v. Jazz OVER 205.5 | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
The Jazz are playing their most consistent on offense reaching triple digits in 11 of their last 15 games, including the past five. Boston has reached triple digits in 26 of its last 27 games. The over has cashed in eight of the Celtics' last 10 road games. The teams met early last month and Boston won 115-104 for a combined 219 points. The teams have a history of going over the total when playing in Utah with the over cashing five of the past six times. | |||||||
02-11-17 | Siena v. Marist +6.5 | 84-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Marist isn't very good. We know that. But Sienna can't be trusted as road chalk. The Saints aren't strong enough.The records bear this out. The Saints have failed to cover nine of the past 12 times they've been favored. Sienna also is just 6-15-1 against the spread the past 22 times it has been a road favorite. | |||||||
02-11-17 | North Texas v. Florida International -4.5 | Top | 71-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a stop-the-pain home game for Florida International, losers of four in a row. The timing is ripe for the Golden Panthers to do just that. Florida International catches North Texas fat and happy after the Mean Green posted a 70-64 road upset win against Florida Atlantic this past Thursday. That victory halted an 11-game losing streak for the Mean Green. North Texas, though, is horrible on the road going 5-16-1 ATS during its last 22 away contests and has failed to cover the past five times following a rare victory. North Texas isn't used to winning, far less so on the road. The Golden Panthers won't lack for motivation. They can just remember last year's game when they blew a 12-point lead with around six minutes left in a 77-75 road loss to the Mean Green during their previous meeting. Stephen Nover Saturday Free Pick Northern Illinois plus 4 1/2 at Western Michigan The combination of getting the better team with the superior defense and a bunch of points puts me on Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois is four games above .500 while Western Michigan is 8-15. According to the latest Ken Pomeroy's ratings, Northern Illinois ranks 194th, while Western Michigan is 205th. The Huskies have the 70th stingiest defense in the country giving up 68.2 points per game. That number actually comes down to 65.6 when they are on the road. By contrast, Western Michigan allows 78.6 points a game. The Broncos are off a 72-55 win against Miami of Ohio in their last game this past Tuesday. They have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a victory. Northern Illinois is 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times playing Western Michigan. The Huskies have covered three of their past four road games, all as either an underdog or pick. | |||||||
02-11-17 | Fordham +7 v. George Mason | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Fordham is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus George Mason. The Rams can take advantage of George Mason being a poor favorite in this spread range - 1-8 ATS laying from 7 to 12 1/2 points - and coming off a 76-69 upset victory against Davidson this past Wednesday night. The Patriots were 11-point underdogs in that game against Davidson. So it wouldn't be surprising if the Patriots' intensity was down a notch here. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Hawks -125 v. Kings | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 0 m | Show |
Not only does Atlanta hold a class difference here, but the Hawks match up well to the Kings. That's continually proven with the Hawks covering 14 of the last 17 in the series, including winning 106-95 in the team's first meeting this season. Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven visits to Sacramento. The Hawks are playing well winning 16 of their last 22. They have covered 10 of their last 14 on the road. Atlanta holds a backcourt edge with Dennis Schroder and Tim Hardaway Jr., both of whom are playing at high levels. The Kings' backcourt may be down Ty Lawson, who suffered a leg injury in the Kings' 108-92 win against the Celtics this past Wednesday. The Kings' major weapon - and only consistent one with Rudy Gay out for the season - is big man DeMarcus Cousins. Dwight Howard can neutralize Cousins, though. Howard had 18 points, 11 rebounds and four blocked shots when the Hawks won the earlier meeting by 11 points. Howard limited Cousins to just 14 points in that game. The Kings always have maturity questions. They could be in a major letdown mood after their impressive 16-point victory versus Boston. The Kings achieved that win without Cousins, who was suspended for that game. Sacramento is 1-6-1 ATS following a victory. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Pelicans v. Wolves OVER 211.5 | 122-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
The Timberwolves still aren't playing good defense. They've allowed triple digits during their past 12 games. Minnesota gave up 117 points to the Pelicans in the first meeting between the two teams this season. The Pelicans rank 23rd defensively. They just yielded 127 points to the offensively-challenge Jazz. The over has cashed the last five times the teams have met. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Warriors v. Grizzlies UNDER 216 | 122-107 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Do not expect a repeat of the Grizzlies 128-119 overtime victory against the Warriors from Jan. 6. The Warriors blew a huge lead in that game and have had this matchup circled ever since. Golden State can play defense ranking No. 1 in 3-point defense and No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage. Memphis allows only 99.1 points per game. Just two teams give up fewer points per game. This is the Grizzlies' third straight home game. They are playing outstanding defense during this homestand holding the Spurs to 74 points and the Suns to 91 points. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Harvard -5 v. Brown | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
The last time Brown defeated Harvard was 2009. The Bears have dropped 14 in a row to the Crimson. I'm going to ride that streak agreeing with the early money movement on Harvard. The Crimson is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Ivy League games and 12-3-2 ATS during their past 17 games. Brown has yet to find consistency dropping six of its last eight. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Dayton v. Rhode Island -3.5 | 75-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rhode Island has been playing excellent defense in winning its last four games. Not only is this a revenge game for the Rams, who lost 67-64 at Dayton, but it's crucial for their Atlantic 10 chances and possible NCAA Tourney berth. The Rams have held four of their last five opponents to below 1.00 in points per possession with the national average being 1.05. The Rams rank in the top 15 in 3-point defense and in the top 60 in percentage of blocked shots and steals. Dayton had a struggle on Tuesday before dispatching St. Joe's. The Flyers have already lost road games to UMass and VCU. Rhode Island is 11-1 at home and is 3-0-1 ATS the past four times hosting Dayton. | |||||||
02-09-17 | Celtics +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 120-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
Every NBA team is going to encounter a flat spot during the course of such a long season. It happened to the Celtics last night. They lost to the Kings, 108-92, despite Sacramento not having suspended DeMarcus Cousins. The Celtics committed 18 turnovers, shot 39.7 percent from the floor and only had four fast-break points. Prior to that game, though, Boston had won seven straight games. The Celtics had reached triple-digits in 25 consecutive games. I see Boston bouncing back strong in this matchup. Fatigue shouldn't factor since Boston last played on Sunday before losing to the Kings. The Celtics also have won five consecutive times when playing without rest, covering four of the five. The Celtics should be use to West Coast time now. If they need extra motivation, the Celtics can point to Jan. 21. The Trail Blazers defeated the Celtics, 127-123 in overtime, on that date in Boston despite finishing their own four-game, six-day road trip back then. The Trail Blazers are off a last-second one-point road victory against the Mavericks two days ago. That was a costly victory for Portland as it lost swingman and key reserve Evan Turner to a broken hand. The Trail Blazers don't have a strong bench, nor good big men to take advantage of Boston's rebounding weakness. Portland is 7-18-1 ATS following a victory. The Celtics have covered 70 percent of their last 18 road contests. | |||||||
02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs OVER 193.5 | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Given the current form of these two teams, the total is too low. The Jazz are averaging 114 ponts during their last four games. They are off their two highest scoring games of the season. | |||||||
02-09-17 | North Texas +7 v. Florida Atlantic | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic is in a letdown spot as mid-size home chalk after upsetting Old Dominion this past Saturday as an 11-point road 'dog. Florida Atlantic isn't strong enough to cover this number if not playing well. North Texas is looking for its first Conference USA win and will be loose. The Owls are 1-7 ATS when laying between 7 and 12 1/2 points. | |||||||
02-09-17 | Belmont -4.5 v. Jacksonville State | 66-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Belmont has too much offense for Jacksonville State and is a far better free throw shooting team. The teams met on Jan. 19 and Belmont won easily, 77-60. Belmont has covered its last five road games and is 18-6 ATS versus opponents that have a winning home mark. Jacksonville State has been a money-burner at home failing to cover in eight of its last nine home contests. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Stanford v. Arizona -13.5 | 67-74 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
I see a blowout here. Arizona has dominated Stanford winning and covering during the past five meetings while winning the last 14 in the series. This includes the Wildcats burying the Cardinal, 91-52, earlier this season. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Raptors -3 v. Wolves | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
DeMar DeRozan is back and so are the Raptors. Toronto has won two in a row and is looking to reclaim the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. DeRozan had missed seven of eight games with an ankle injury, but returned on Monday in the Raptors' last game and scored 31 points in a 118-109 home win versus the Clippers. Minnesota has dropped four in a row. The Timberwolves have surrendered an average of 115.8 points during their losing streak, most in the league during this span. The team is in a funk after finding that promising guard Zach LaVine is out for the season with a torn ACL in his knee. The Raptors can take advantage of Minnesota's lack of depth. Minnesota shot 51.1 percent from the floor when the teams last met on Dec. 8 in Toronto. The Raptors still won, 124-110. That was the ninth time in the last 11 meetings the Raptors have covered versus the Timberwolves, who have failed to also cover in five of their last six games at Target Center. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Suns v. Grizzlies OVER 210 | 91-110 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Phoenix is the 11th-highest scoring team in the NBA, but allows the second-most points per game at 112.6. Memphis has picked up its scoring. The Grizzlies have scored at least 101 points in 11 of their last 13 games. Part of their offensive transformation comes from Marc Gasol enjoying his finest all-around offensive season. The Suns have scored 105 or more points in nine of their last 10 games. Eric Booker is having a monster season for them. However, the Suns have also surrendered at least 111 points in seven of their last eight games. Note, too, that the over has cashed seven of the past eight times the teams have played in Memphis. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Suns +10 v. Grizzlies | 91-110 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
The Grizzlies have a history of playing to the level of their competition and are in a prime flat spot. Memphis just defeated San Antonio, 89-74, at home on Monday and hosts Golden State on Friday. So the Grizzlies can be excused if they overlook the Suns. Phoenix averages 106.6 points a game, 11th-best in the NBA. The Suns shouldn't lack motivation with revenge for a 19-point home loss suffered to the Grizzlies on Jan. 30 and have covered four of their last five road games. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Wizards v. Nets +10 | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Granted Brooklyn is terrible losers of 21 of its last 22 games. But this is a rich spot for the Nets and they're collecting a boatload of points. Brooklyn has covered four of the last five times when getting nine or more points. The Nets usually can be counted on to provide a good effort. They rank 16th in scoring, play hard and are a better free throw shooting team than Washington. They have ample motivation opening a four-game homestand looking to halt a 10-game losing streak. The Nets also have double-revenge incentive for two December losses. They were blown out at Verizon Center, but only lost 118-113 at home to the Wizards. Washington could have trouble getting up for this game. The Wizards' energy may be at low ebb, too, coming off a 140-135 home overtime loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday night. That was the Wizards' biggest game of the season and ended their seven-game win streak. I still question the Wizards' maturity level especially after Bradley Beal started dancing in overtime with the Wizards leading Cleveland by two points. Washington is 0-4 ATS the past four times playing a foe with a losing home record. The Wizards are back home Friday to host the Pacers. It's going to be difficult for the Wizards to care much about this game. The Nets lost 111-107 to the Hornets in Charlotte last night. Only one Nets player logged more than 29 minutes, though. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Rutgers v. Ohio State -10.5 | 64-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
There's a major class difference here as Ohio State is coming on and catches Rutgers coming off a huge 70-68 road win against Penn State this past Saturday. That was Rutgers' first road win in 24 Big Ten games. Ohio State is 3-0 versus Rutgers since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten. The Buckeyes buried Rutgers, 94-68, at home last season. Rutgers is improved, but not to the point where it can stay within double-digits of the Buckeyes in Columbus. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Baylor +2.5 v. Oklahoma State | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Baylor has lost two in a row. But Oklahoma State being favored against the Bears is an overreaction. The Bears were contending to be top-ranked last week before losing games to Kansas State and Kansas. Now the Bears are in stop-the-pain mode. No Big 12 team plays better defense than Baylor, which gives up the fewest points per game and is No. 1, too, in defensive field goal percentage. Baylor also ranks No. 1 in RPI. I see Baylor, which defeated Oklahoma State earlier this season, trumping the Cowboys this time around with its superior defense. | |||||||
02-07-17 | San Diego State -6.5 v. San Jose State | 71-76 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
San Jose State is much improved. But I don't see the Spartans winning a season-high third consecutive game. San Diego State has won five of seven since opening 0-3 in the Mountain West. Its two losses were by a combined four points. The Aztecs have a plus 34 scoring margin. The buy sign is on them here with San Jose State in a letdown spot and the Aztecs expected to have Zylan Cheatham, Malik Pope and Max Hoetzel all playing. San Diego State beat San Jose State, 76-61, on Jan. 10. The Aztecs are a level higher than the Spartans, good enough to win by double-digits again especially with a full lineup. The Spartans are off a huge 78-68 road win against New Mexico this past Saturday. They were 10 1/2-point 'dogs in that game. That was their first victory ever against the Lobos in 14 tries. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Iowa State v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing the letdown card strong fading Iowa State off its monster double-digit upset road overtime win against second-ranked Kansas this past Saturday. The Cyclones pulled the upset by coming from 15 points down in ending the Jayhawks' 51-game home win streak while likely securing their place in the Big Dance with that victory. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS following a spread cover and has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games in Austin. Texas has the talent to beat Iowa State. The youthful Longhorns have begun to play better going 2-2 following five straight losses. Freshman big man Jarrett Allen has come on to average 16 points and 10.5 rebounds during his last 10 games. The Longhorns are tough at home - owning Big 12 victories against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech not to mention losing by only two to then ninth-ranked West Virginia - and have also covered seven of the last eight times as underdogs. Texas has also covered 71 percent of its last 24 Big 12 games. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Michigan State +5 v. Michigan | 57-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Michigan State just beat Michigan, 70-62, on Jan. 29. Now the Wolverines are favored by this much? I'm not buying it. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Blazers -125 v. Mavs | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Dallas is in a tough spot. The Mavericks just played in Denver's high altitude last night and lost by 23 points. Wesley Matthews limped off the floor in that game so he might not play today. The Mavericks have won only once in 10 tries when playing without rest this season. Portland is in short revenge having lost 108-104 to the Mavericks at home this past Friday. All-Star Damian Lillard was outplayed in that game by unheralded Yogi Ferrell. That's not going to happen again. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Alabama v. South Carolina -7 | 90-86 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
South Carolina has won four in a row. The Gamecocks rank No. 1 defensively in the SEC. They can easily keep Alabama in check. The Crimson Tide rank ninth in the league offensively. Alabama is reeling from a bad loss to in-state rival Auburn. The Tide has failed to cover in 12 of its last 17 SEC games. | |||||||
02-06-17 | Spurs -2.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 74-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
San Antonio has defeated Memphis nine straight times, covering seven of the nine. I expect the Spurs to continue their dominance again in this matchup. The Spurs have won 20 of their 25 road games. This is the opener of an eight-game road swing for them. The Spurs have won nine of their last 11 and rank with the Warriors and Cavaliers as one of the three best teams in the NBA. San Antonio gives up fewer points per game than the Grizzlies and outscores them by seven points a game. Memphis ranks last in shooting percentage, while San Antonio is second in shooting percentage and has the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. Memphis is playing at home for the first time after going 4-2 in its six-game road trip that ended with a 107-99 victory against the Timberwolves Saturday night. The first game back from being gone so long is not a plus for the home Grizzlies, who could be a bit fat and happy after rallying from 19 points down to defeat Minnesota. The Grizzlies have failed to cover five of the last seven times following a victory. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when taking on an above .500 opponent. Monday Free Play Cavaliers at Wizards Under 220 Not only is this the Wizards' most important game of the season, but it's their biggest home game in years. Packed crowd. Nationally televised. Amped up 100 percent to play the defending world champion Cavaliers. Yes, I could envision the Wizards being tight under the pressure and spotlight. Things they're not normally accustomed to. But I'm not going to fade the Wizards at home where they have won 17 in a row. Instead I'm going under the total. Sure there's star power in this matchup headed by LeBron James and John Wall, having his finest season. That's why the total is high. Lost among the glitter, though, is the solid defense both Cleveland and Washington have been playing. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to an average of 96 points. The Cavaliers have permitted an average of 99 points in their past four games. The teams met back in Washington on Nov. 11 in their lone matchup this season. The Cavaliers won, 105-94, for a total of 199 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 29 points. Irving is questionable having missed the Cavaliers' previous game because of a sore quad. | |||||||
02-06-17 | Heat v. Wolves OVER 205 | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 33 m | Show | |
The Heat have ramped up their offense. They have reached triple digits in each of their last eight games. Miami has scored 116 points or more in three of their last four games. Minnesota ranks 27th in defensive field goal percentage. | |||||||
02-05-17 | Colorado +7 v. California | 66-77 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
A tough schedule and tough luck made things rough in the early going for Colorado. The Buffaloes started 0-7 in the Pac-12. But four of those losses came by three or fewer points. Now things are turning around for the Buffaloes, winners of three in a row and getting outstanding play from senior guard Derrick White. The Buffaloes are catching an inflated spread here and worth taking. Cal has covered just one of its last six games while going 5-10 ATS at home this season. | |||||||
02-04-17 | UC-Irvine -3 v. Long Beach State | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Cal Irvine is the superior team and is in stop-the-pain mode after losing two in a row. The Anteaters had won eight in a row before their losing streak. Long Beach State is 4-4 in the Big West Conference, two games behind Cal Irvine and UC Davis for the lead. But the 49ers are overmatched here. They are 7-15 ATS, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when going against an above .500 foe. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Warriors v. Kings OVER 224.5 | 106-109 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
The Warriors are averaging 125 points during their last five games. Stephen Curry has been on fire and Draymond Green has been cleared to play. The Kings rank among the bottom 10 in defense. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Portland v. BYU -19.5 | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Portland was bad even before losing star player and leading scorer Alex Wintering for the season with a knee injury. But the Pilots have really fallen apart. They have become a near auto-fade. They are in the throngs of a nine-game losing streak going 2-7-1 ATS. Portland's last two losses have each come at home by 15 to Santa Clara and 16 to San Diego. BYU is a kill mood after losing to Gonzaga in its last game. The Cougars are 11-3-1 ATS following a loss. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Magic v. Hawks -7.5 | 86-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
You have to go back to the day after Christmas to find the last time Orlando won consecutive games. I see a big letdown in store here for the Magic following their 102-94 home win against Toronto Friday night. That victory was just Orlando's third in its last 11 games and fifth in its past 19 games. This is the first time in three weeks the Magic are playing without rest. Orlando averages fewer than 100 points a game. Atlanta ranks eighth defensively. The Hawks have been inconsistent, but should be motivated following a 113-108 win at Houston two days ago when they came from 20 points down in the fourth quarter. A loss to the lowly Magic would just give that victory back. Atlanta has covered the last two times it was laying more than seven points. Saturday Free Play Jazz minus 7 1/2 hosting Hornets The Hornets are a below .500 team that plays in the Eastern Conference - making their 23-27 record look even worse - has trouble on the road and lacks consistent scoring behind Kemba Walker. And that's when the Hornets are healthy. The Hornets are far from healthy here and they are playing in their third straight road game against a well-rested Jazz team in action for just the second time in seven days. Charlotte has to take on the league's No. 1 defensive team - both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage - with Walker questionable to play because of illness, main backup guard Ramon Sessions doubtful with a sore knee and center Cody Zeller out due to a quad injury. Zeller doesn't draw much accolades, but the Hornets are 1-11 without him this season. Charlotte is thin at center after dealing big men Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert to Milwaukee. The Hornets are going to start Frank Kaminsky at center against Rudy Gobert in a mismatch of monster proportions. Gobert may be the most underrated big man in basketball. He's posted 33 double-doubles this season. Gobert leads the league in blocks, is No. 2 in field goal percentage behind DeAndre Jordan - who's shooting range is two feet - and fifth in rebounding. Gobert will be aided on the boards by Derrick Favors, expected to play after missing the past two games. Walker played in Charlotte's last game, a 126-111 loss to Golden State this past Wednesday. Walker, though, clearly wasn't 100 percent. He may have had his worst game of the season connecting for just one field goal and scoring seven points, 15 below his season average. The Hornets are 4-11-1 ATS during their last 16 road matchups and 7-18-2 ATS when going against foes with a winning home mark. There is nothing here to suggest the Hornets can stay within single-digits of Utah. | |||||||
02-04-17 | San Jose State +11 v. New Mexico | 78-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
San Jose State has finished last the past three seasons since joining the Mountain West Conference. But the Spartans are much improved this season already exceeding last year's win total. The Spartans are keyed by perhaps the best player in the conference - power forward Brandon Clarke. The 6-foot-8 Clarke leads the Mountain West in scoring at 23.3 points a game. He also tops the conference in field goal percentage and blocked shots while ranking in the top five in rebounding. The Lobos are dealing with a cluster injury problem down two starters and a key reserve. One of those out is Tim Williams, the Lobos' second-leading scorer at 17.8 points. New Mexico has been plagued by sloppy ball handling committing 33 turnovers in its last two games. The Lobos are usually overvalued at home, too. They've failed to cover in five of their last six home contests. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -10.5 | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
The line is short considering Texas Arlington was minus 8 1/2 as a road favorite against Texas State when the teams met on Jan. 7. Texas State upset Texas Arlington winning 81-73. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Western Kentucky -3 v. Southern Miss | 64-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
This line opened short. Western Kentucky is more consistent than Southern Mississippi and averages seven more points per game. The Golden Eagles are hampered by their poor shooting - under 40 percent from the field. This also is a letdown spot for the Golden Eagles after they stunned Marshall, 91-76, at home on Thursday. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Elon +5.5 v. College of Charleston | 58-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
College of Charleston is a letdown spot after getting revenge Thursday nipping UN Wilmington, 67-66, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog. Elon has won five in a row and has covered eight of its last nine games. The Phoenix are especially tough as a road 'dog covering 16 of the last 21 in that capacity. | |||||||
02-04-17 | William & Mary +1.5 v. Towson | 80-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
William & Mary averages eight more points than Towson State. The Tribe is on a nice roll winning and covering the past four times in blowout fashion. The Tribe has covered in six of their last eight visits to Towson State. Towson State just edged Drexel, 104-103, in overtime on Thursday. This is a short turnaround from that huge win. | |||||||
02-03-17 | Bucks v. Nuggets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 117-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
The Bucks are averaging just 92 points during regulation in their last three games. Some of their young stars are showing signs of hitting the wall nearing All-Star break. The Nuggets are forced to be more defensive conscious. Leading scorer Danilo Gallinari is out with a groin injury. Denver loses much of its free throw percentage with Gallinari out. Gallinari shoots 88.7 percent from the foul line. Nikola Jokic has missed the last three games with a hip flexor strain. He's expected to play here, but be on a minutes restriction. Swingman and sparkplug Will Barton has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. He's expected to play, too, but probably isn't going to be 100 percent. Point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is back for Denver, but he's one of the worst shooting guards in the NBA. | |||||||
02-03-17 | St. Peter's +9 v. Monmouth | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
St. Peter's is playing well covering six of its last seven. St. Peter's also is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games while Monmouth has a losing spread mark at home. The line is too high, which is the opinion of several sharps who follow this conference closely. I'm going to join them in taking the points. | |||||||
02-02-17 | Warriors -8 v. Clippers | Top | 133-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
The Clippers got their mojo back by rolling past the Suns on Wednesday night. But the absence of Chris Paul will really be felt in this matchup. The Clippers don't have enough firepower to keep within single digits of the Warriors. Certainly the Warriors aren't going to bury LA by 46 points like they did on Saturday, but they still are vastly superior especially when playing well. And the Warriors are playing well winning 15 of their last 17 games with 10 of their last 11 victories coming by double-digits. Stephen Curry is on fire scoring 82 points in his last two games on 29 of 43 shooting from the floor and 20 of 30 from 3-point range. The Warriors have beaten the Clippers eight consecutive times. They will get their share of crowd support, too, in LA. | |||||||
02-02-17 | UAB -5 v. UTEP | 59-63 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
Alabama-Birmingham's class difference should prove itself here. UAB has won seven of its last eight and is 7-2 in Conference USA. UTEP is coming off a surprising 91-68 road win against Marshall this past Saturday. That was just the third time the Miners have covered in their last 11 games. They are 1-5 ATS during their past six home games. | |||||||
02-02-17 | Portland State +4 v. Idaho | 72-89 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
Idaho upset Montana as seven-point road 'dogs in overtime this past Saturday. Now the Vandals are home where they have failed to cover in five of their last seven games. Portland State averages 14 more points per game than Idaho. The Vikings are off back-to-back losses the latter coming to Sacramento State in overtime. The Vandals should prove tough in this spot. They've covered six of the last seven times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. | |||||||
02-02-17 | Santa Clara -5 v. Portland | Top | 60-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Santa Clara is a full tier behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference hierarchy. But the Broncos are far better than Portland. That was proven in the first meeting between the teams, which Santa Clara won, 70-42, on Jan. 5. Portland was in free fall dropping four in a row - and that was before their leading scorer and star guard, Alec Wintering, was lost for the season with a torn ACL. That happened less than two weeks ago and the Pilots haven't recovered losing by 16 points to San Diego at home this past Saturday. Portland lost its previous game to Pepperdine, 78-60, as a five-point road 'dog. Wintering was averaging 19.5 points and 5.6 assists per game. Without Wintering, the Pilots aren't just one of the worst teams in the WCC but in the entire country losers of eight in a row. | |||||||
02-02-17 | Northern Arizona v. Idaho State -5 | 90-91 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
What does it tell you that the oddsmaker has installed Idaho State, the last-place team in the Big Sky Conference, as a decent-sized favorite against Northern Arizona? It tells me Idaho State is the right side here. The Bengals are in circle-the-wagons mode, have an excellent player in Ethan Telfair and catch Northern Arizona in a bad situational spot. The Lumberjacks just hosted Northern Colorado and North Dakota. Both were revenge games for the Lumberjacks. Northern Arizona won both games winning straight-up as six-point 'dogs to Northern Colorado and 9 1/2-point 'dogs to North Dakota this past Saturday. Northern Arizona takes on Big Sky leader Weber State on the road this Saturday. So this is both a letdown and look-ahead spot for Northern Arizona. | |||||||
02-02-17 | Hawks +9.5 v. Rockets | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
The Hawks aren't going to go quietly here after getting whipped 116-93 by Miami last night. Look for the Hawks to ramp up their intensity level. Atlanta is 11-3 ATS the past 14 times when playing without rest. Houston has had problems with the Hawks in the past losing the past six times against them while covering only once. The Hawks beat the Rockets by 15 points in their first meeting this season. The Rockets aren't playing as well as they were before when they went 20-2. They are just 5-7 during their last 12 games. Houston has failed to cover the past six times following a victory. James Harden hasn't been 100 percent either dealing with a sore knee. His poor shooting - 6 of 26 from the floor the past two games - reflects that. | |||||||
02-01-17 | Clippers -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 124-114 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
The last time the Clippers took the court was this past Saturday. They were pounded and embarrassed by the Warriors on the road on national television losing, 144-98. That was easily the Clippers' worst loss of the season. Now, after three full days to think about that humiliation, the Clippers finally are back in action playing the Suns in Phoenix. LA hosts the Warriors on Thursday and then takes off on a five-game road trip starting with Boston and Toronto. So there is no way the Clippers can look past the lowly Suns. Minus Chris Paul, the Clippers are far from an elite team. But the prideful Clippers have Blake Griffin back, a star center in DeAndre Jordan and excellent backcourt depth. That's enough to cover this spread range against the Suns, who have dropped four in a row allowing an average of 119.3 points during their losing streak. Griffin is getting the rust off scoring 20 points in 23 minutes against the Warriors in his second game back from missing 18 games with a knee injury. Jordan leads the league in field goal percentage, is No. 2 in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Austin Rivers is having his best season joining J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford to give the Clippers a respectable backcourt even without Paul. The Clippers certainly don't want to enter their Thursday rematch against the Warriors coming off a loss to the Suns, a team they are 2-0 against this season with the average victory margin being 14.5 points. The Suns rank second-to-last in defense and usually are at their worst against Western Conference foes going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against them. Wednesday Free Pick Nets plus 2 1/2 hosting Knicks When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that. Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks. New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating. It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January. This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's. The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards. The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times. | |||||||
02-01-17 | Florida State +2 v. Miami (Fla) | 75-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a stop-the-pain game for Florida State, which has dropped two in a row. Miami is 3-14 ATS as a favorite - 1-8 ATS as home chalk - and coming off a huge 77-62 win over then sixth-ranked North Carolina. Florida State showed some positive signs in the second half of its loss to Syracuse in its last game. The Seminoles present a pressure defense that should cause problems to the Hurricanes, who ranked 260th in assist-to-turnover ratio. | |||||||
02-01-17 | Hawks -125 v. Heat | 93-116 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Miami is hot, but Atlanta is the better team. The Hawks have proven that twice already this season beating the Heat in both meetings by three and eight points, respectively. The Heat have won eight in a row, but their last four victories have been against the Nets, Pistons, Bulls and Nets again. This is a step up. Miami also is playing for the fourth time in six days, while the Hawks have had two full days to recover from their four overtime win against the Knicks this past Sunday. Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games. | |||||||
02-01-17 | Pacers v. Magic +3 | 98-88 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm not buying into the Pacers as road chalk. Indiana not only has failed to cover the past seven times in that role, but lost straight-up each time. Orlando has shown signs of improvement beating the Raptors on Sunday and falling to the improved Timberwolves in overtime on Monday. Both of those games were on the road. Now the Magic are home. It's Frank Vogel's first home game against the former team he coached. Evan Fournier, the Magic's leading scorer, also is back after missing seven games with a foot injury. He played 23 minutes against the Timberwolves and should be less rusty here. | |||||||
01-31-17 | Dayton -10.5 v. Fordham | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Dayton is vastly better than Fordham and should have plenty of motivation following a 73-69 road loss to VCU in its last game this past Friday. That loss snapped a three-game Dayton win streak. The Flyers have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 67 points or fewer. Fordham averages just 64.7 points in Atlantic 10 play. Fordham has a day less rest having lost 84-66 at home to Davidson this past Saturday. The Rams rank 217th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, while Dayton rates 36th. The Flyers have covered the past six times versus Fordham, including winning 64-50 during the lone meeting last season. Fordham is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games, failing to cover in four of its past five home contests. | |||||||
01-31-17 | Kings v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 83-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The spot isn't ideal for either team setting up an under play. The Kings are concluding an eight-game road trip. This is their fourth game in five days and second in two nights. They are not going to look to run with Houston. The Kings will want to slow tempo and try to patiently feed DeMarcus Cousins inside. Cousins is having a huge season, but the Kings do not have a reliable second scoring option with Rudy Gay out with a ruptured Achilles' tendon. Houston just got back from five straight road games. So the Rockets might not have their full focus. There is a strong below the total history in this type of situation for Houston with the under cashing 22 of the last 29 times the Rockets have played at home following being away from seven or more days. The Kings have been playing underrated defense, too, surrendering 107 or fewer points during regulation in seven of their last eight games. | |||||||
01-30-17 | Cavs -4 v. Mavs | 97-104 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
In a word, no Dallas can't upset San Antonio and Cleveland on back-to-back days. The Cavaliers are playing better now. Dallas is playing better, too, after a 4-17 start. But the Mavericks don't have near the Cavaliers' talent being two-to-three levels behind them. Deron Williams isn't likely to play leaving the short-handed Dallas backcourt in the hands of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Neither is an NBA starting caliber guard. Cleveland buried Dallas, 128-90, when the teams last met on Nov. 25. | |||||||
01-30-17 | Magic v. Wolves OVER 210.5 | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Frank Vogel still hasn't been able to turn around Orlando's bad defense. The Magic have surrendered at least 113 points in six of their last eight games. | |||||||
01-30-17 | Western Carolina v. Mercer -13 | Top | 47-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The teams just met on Jan. 21 at Western Carolina and Mercer won, 70-50. Mercer accomplished the 20-point road victory despite making 11 of 19 free throws compared to the Catamounts sinking 16 of 21 free throws. The timing is right for Mercer to bury Western Carolina again. Mercer is playing well covering seven of its last eight games. Western Carolina is off a surprising 68-62 home win against Wofford this past Saturday. The Catamounts were 9 1/2-point underdogs. They have not won or covered two consecutive games all season. Western Carolina also has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 road contests. | |||||||
01-29-17 | Mavs v. Spurs OVER 195 | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
The Spurs have been a strong over team going above the total in 13 of their last 16 games. However, San Antonio scored just 103 points in a 119-103 road loss to the Pelicans on Friday. Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker had just gotten back into the lineup and were rusty. They should be much better now and the Spurs will be motivated to put that loss to the Pelicans behind them with a big scoring effort. San Antonio is weaker defensively with David Lee at center replacing injured Pau Gasol. | |||||||
01-29-17 | Rockets v. Pacers UNDER 226 | Top | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Considering the circumstances and matchup, this total is too high. Houston is an up-tempo, high-energy team that launches more 3-pointer than any team. But this marks the end of the Rockets' five-game, nine-day road swing so energy could be lacking. The Pacers also have the necessary perimeter defense to slow down Houston ranking fifth in 3-point defense. The Rockets might be without Eric Gordon, their second-leading scorer, for a third consecutive game. He's dealing with a sore back. Trevor Ariza, the Rockets' fourth-leading scorer, is mired in an 8-for-32 shooting slump during the last four games. Indiana has a reputation as a high-scoring team. But the Pacers are averaging 102.4 points in regulation during their last five games and rank just 14th in scoring. | |||||||
01-29-17 | Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Look for Villanova to come back strong at home. The defending national champion Wildcats have had four full days to stew about blowing a 17-point lead in a road loss to Marquette this past Tuesday. From that loss, the Wildcats should stress more defensive consistency and a better mix on offense. Virginia is great again defensively leading the nation in fewest points per game. But the Cavaliers lack Villanova's scoring and shoot far worse from the free throw line. Villanova ranks third in the country in free throw percentage at 79 percent. Playing at home, I would take Villanova's offense over Virginia's defense especially coming off a surprising loss. Villanova's prideful seniors - Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds - have never lost consecutive games. The Wildcats usually respond well to a defeat covering eight of the last nine times in those instances. | |||||||
01-28-17 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 232 | Top | 123-112 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
Even with these two high-scoring teams it's going to be tough to go over a total this high. The Nuggets are going to be without Nikola Jokic, who has been an absolute monster. He has a left hip strain and is out. Denver also could be missing point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. He's sat out the last three games with back problems. The teams just met on Thursday and the Nuggets won, 127-120, in Denver. Ancient Jameer Nelson filled in for Mudiay and logged 41:47. He's going to be in trouble trying to handle the pace if Mudiay can't play and he has to log major minutes like that again. This is the team's fourth meeting. So they certainly are familiar with each other, a plus for the under. The Suns are in a triple-revenge spot having lost the first three games of the seasons series to the Nuggets so their intensity level should be raised. It's also the sixth different venue in a row for the Suns so that's another plus for the under. | |||||||
01-28-17 | Pistons -3.5 v. Heat | 103-116 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
The spot sets up well for the Pistons, who haven't played since Monday when they lost 109-104 at home to the Kings. The Pistons have been pointing to this game since. Miami is off an upset of the Bulls in Chicago last night. The Heat accomplished that without Hassan Whiteside, who is questionable here. The Heat have lost six of the past eight times when playing without rest. The Pistons have matched up well to the Heat winning by nine and 23 points. | |||||||
01-28-17 | Kings v. Hornets -7 | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
Despite losing Rudy Gay, the Kings have proven tough on the road in their last three games upsetting the Pistons as a seven-point 'dog, stunning the Cavaliers as a 10 1/2-point 'dog and covering as a 4 1/2-point 'dog in a 115-111 overtime loss to the Pacers last night. But now the Kings have reached the end of their long road swing. This marks their sixth away matchup in nine days. It's too much of a leap of faith to believe the Kings - traditionally a horrible road club - can have much left for Charlotte. The Hornets desperately need this game. They've lost three in a row and take off for a three-game West Coast road trip following this game where they will take on the Trail Blazers, Warriors and Jazz. Charlotte has dropped its past seven road games. Hence, the importance of this home matchup for the Hornets. Charlotte has won four of its last six home contests with one of the losses coming to the Warriors. During this span, the Hornets have defeated the Thunder by 11, Trail Blazers by 22 and Raptors by 35. So they're certainly capable of covering this mid-size number against the lottery-bound Kings. | |||||||
01-28-17 | Eastern Washington v. Montana State UNDER 154 | 90-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
These two teams met earlier this season and Eastern Washington won, 82-64. That's a combined 146 points and Eastern Washington shot 60.4 percent from the floor. The under has cashed seven of the last nine times they've met with the average score being 138 points during the last 13 games in the series. Both teams have improved defensively compared to last season while not being as good offensively. So this total is set too high. | |||||||
01-28-17 | Providence +8.5 v. Marquette | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Providence has played a tough schedule and is at its best as a road 'dog covering 13 of the last 18 times in that role. Marquette is in a prime letdown spot after its dramatic home victory against top-ranked Villanova on Tuesday. Marquette historically is bad in this role, too, going 5-13 ATS at home versus a sub .500 opponent and is 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times when laying between seven and 12 1/2 points. | |||||||
01-28-17 | Kansas State -110 v. Tennessee | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
This is mostly a fade against Tennessee following the Volunteers' big upset victory in their last game against Kentucky. The Vols start three freshmen and are prone to a letdown in my view more than most teams off a huge victory. | |||||||
01-27-17 | Green Bay v. Oakland -7.5 | 80-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Look for Oakland to bounce back from an 88-67 loss to Wright State. The Golden Grizzlies have too strong of an offense to have another bad shooting game. Oakland averages 10 more points than its opponent when playing at home. The Golden Grizzlies also have covered 74 percent of their last 43 games versus foes with a winning record. Green Bay is having a good season, but have a losing road record. The Phoenix have been outscored by six points per game on the road. Oakland scored 111 points in each of its games against Green Bay last season winning by 16 at Green Bay and 18 at home. So this spread isn't out of line. | |||||||
01-27-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -4 | Top | 86-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
First off, I like the Raptors even though their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, is going to miss a third straight game. The Raptors play better defense without him.The Raptors have hung tough without their star losing 108-106 to the Spurs and 101-99 on the road to the Grizzlies. However, the Raptors are saddled in a season-high five-game losing streak. This is a stop-the-pain game for them being at home against the Bucks, who are sub .500 team and have lost six of their last seven games. The Bucks have given up an average of 112 points in their last seven games. Only three teams score more points per game than Toronto. Milwaukee has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. The Bucks are 0-2 this season, too, versus Toronto losing by six at home and by 22 at Toronto. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
ProSportsPicks | $1,066 |
Jack Jones | $960 |
Big Al McMordie | $876 |
Ross Benjamin | $740 |
Ray Monohan | $702 |
Jimmy Boyd | $424 |
Nick Parsons | $414 |
Ricky Tran | $343 |
Kyle Hunter | $265 |
Matt Fargo | $175 |