12-18-15 |
Grizzlies +2.5 v. Mavs | Top | 88-97 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
Memphis matches up well to the Mavericks as evidenced by the Grizzlies covering four of the last five in this series, including defeating Dallas, 110-96, at home on Nov. 24. The smallish, finesse Mavericks have trouble against the taller, more physical Grizzlies in the frontcourt. The Grizzlies outscored the Mavericks by 26 points in the paint during that last meeting and that was without Zach Randolph. Marc Gasol and Randolph are two of the most physical players in the league. The Mavericks are a jump-shooting team whose key shooters are on a cold streak. Dirk Nowitzki is just 20-for-55 (36.3 percent) from the field in his last five games while Wesley Matthews has missed 16 of 23 shots from the floor in his last two games. Dallas isn't playing well losing eight of its last 13. The Mavericks also are banged up. Backup point guard Devin Harris may not play and Chandler Parsons is dealing with a knee injury. The Grizzlies are just 14-13, but have played a difficult schedule. They've been better on the road going 7-5-1 ATS compared to 4-10 ATS at home. They are 3-1-1 the past five times they've been road 'dogs.
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12-18-15 |
Clippers v. Spurs OVER 194 | | 107-115 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
The marketplace has taken this total down too low. Not enough respect is being given to the caliber of the offenses of these two teams. The Spurs average better than 101 points per game and have the second-highest field goal percentage in the league. The Clippers average better than 102 points per game and are in the top 10 in field goal percentage. The over has cashed in 11 of the last 16 meetings between the two teams. |
12-16-15 |
Bucks v. Clippers UNDER 199.5 | | 90-103 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
The Bucks know they can't play up-tempo against the far more talented Clippers. So I expect them to slow things down especially being short-handed at point guard with Greivis Vaszuez and Jerryd Bayless out. Michael Carter-Williams is more about defense than offense. The Bucks are second-to-last in the league in scoring. The Clippers just returned home following a five-game, 10-day road trip. So they're going to have tired legs. Their concentration could be off, too, especially with their next game looming against San Antonio on Friday. |
12-16-15 |
Bucks +11.5 v. Clippers | Top | 90-103 |
Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The spot and situation set up perfect for Milwaukee. The Bucks are 5-0 ATS this season when playing without rest. The Bucks will be highly motivated after coach Jason Kidd ripped them for their embarrassing 113-95 loss to the Lakers last night. Obviously the Bucks were in a major letdown spot still celebrating ending Golden State's 24-0 start during their previous game. The Bucks should be far more intense for this matchup. They won't have leading scorer and rebounder Greg Monroe back after he missed the Lakers game with a knee injury. But the Bucks have had a game to adjust to Monroe's absence. The Clippers just returned from a five-game, 10-day road trip that concluded with an overtime victory against the Pistons on Monday night. The Clippers' main stars - Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan - all logged major minutes. The Clippers are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games and have a far bigger game on deck Friday when they play the Spurs on the road. |
12-15-15 |
Rockets +2 v. Kings | Top | 97-107 |
Loss | -105 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The Rockets are 7-3 in their last 10 games snapping out of their early season funk. They match up well to the Kings - particularly James Harden - having defeated them seven consecutive times. Houston is 8-2 in its last 10 visits to Sacramento. Houston catches a break in that the Kings will be without suspended point guard Rajon Rondo. Harden is averaging 37 points and 11 assists in two games against Sacramento this season - both victories. Career-wise, Harden averages 33 points against the Kings, the highest he averages against any opponent. Sacramento defeated the Knicks, 99-97, in its last game. That was back on Thursday, though. Not playing for fourth straight days is too long of a break for an NBA team during this point of the season. The Kings also happen to be 6-19-1 ATS following a victory. |
12-14-15 |
Rockets -5 v. Nuggets | Top | 108-114 |
Loss | -102 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The Rockets are in double revenge mode against the Nuggets. Houston is much more together and playing far better than the last two times it played and lost to Denver, including being embarrassed at home by 20 points in its opening game. The Rockets are 7-2 in their last nine games. The team has responded to interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Houston always had the talent, but the right coaching had to come into place. One move that has paid major dividends is starting Patrick Beverly at point guard instead of Ty Lawson, who wasn't a good fit in the backcourt with offensive-minded James Harden. Houston is averaging 111.7 points in its last nine games. Denver averages fewer than 97 points a game. The Rockets have reached triple digits in each of their last nine games. The Nuggets are not in Houston's class. They haven't been good at home either going 4-7 at Pepsi Center with all of their defeats coming by seven or more points. Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. Denver has injuries, too. Starting point guard Emmanuel Mudiay is out leaving washed-up Jameer Nelson to soak up the most minutes. The Nuggets also have injuries in their frontcourt.
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12-14-15 |
Heat v. Hawks -5 | | 100-88 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Atlanta has had Miami's number winning the past seven meetings, including going 4-0 ATS the last four times in Atlanta. The Heat haven't covered during their last eight meetings versus the Hawks. Miami has played only seven road games so far going 2-5. The Heat have scored 83 points or less in three of their past four away contests. On the season, Miami is averaging 88.1 points away from American Airlines Arena. This is a bad spot, too, for the Heat. They are coming off a 100-97 home win against Memphis on Sunday in which they rallied from 16 points down. This will be just the second time the Heat are playing without rest. The last time was back on Nov. 6 when they lost and failed to cover on the road against the Pacers. The Hawks, on the other hand, were idle yesterday. They are motivated to perform much better than they did when they were buried, 103-78, at home by San Antonio two days ago. That was the Hawks' first game back after being on the road last Wednesday and Thursday. They are fully rested and settled in now. |
12-12-15 |
UCLA +8 v. Gonzaga | Top | 71-66 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
Gonzaga is far from in peak shape. The Bulldogs are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four home games. They lost to Arizona, 68-63, at home last Saturday and just nipped Montana, 61-58, at home this past Tuesday as 17 1/2-point favorites. UCLA is more than capable of springing the upset. Just ask Kentucky. The Bruins beat the Wildcats, 87-77, two games ago as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Bruins have had a week to prepare for this matchup having been idle the past six days. The Bruins are tough to defend because they have a well balanced lineup. All five of their starters can score. UCLA can hang with Gonzaga on the boards and are a much better free throw shooting team. UCLA also has revenge for an 87-74 home loss to the Bulldogs last season. |
12-12-15 |
Celtics v. Hornets -2 | Top | 98-93 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
Charlotte is playing its best ball winning four in a row. The Hornets are giving up just 90 points per game during this span. Sparked by improved Kemba Walker and newcomer Nicolas Batum, who is enjoying a big comeback season, the Hornets have quietly won 14 of their last 19 and own the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets' confidence is sky high after burying Memphis, 123-99, on the road last night. The lopsided margin allowed Charlotte to rest its regulars down the stretch. Only Walker logged more than 31 minutes. Boston also played well last night - but lost 124-119 in double overtime to undefeated Golden State at home. The Celtics probably should have won the game. It was a monster effort by the Celtics. Boston has good depth and is well coached. However, I can't see the Celtics turning out another strong, motivated performance off this brutal loss and with no rest on the road against a team that is playing as well as Charlotte is. The timing is all wrong for Boston. The Hornets have won 10 of their last 13 home contests. They are better than Boston, at home and in a much better situation spot. |
12-11-15 |
Heat v. Pacers UNDER 198 | | 83-96 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
After giving up the highest defensive rating in the NBA during their last three-game span, the Pacers have worked hard on improving their defense during the past two days following their 131-123 home loss to unbeaten Golden State this past Tuesday. The Pacers are in a physical, take no-prisoners mood trying to end a three-game losing streak. Their opponent, Miami, is a defensive-minded team, too. The Heat rank No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game and in defensive field goal percentage. They also rank fifth in defending against 3-pointers, a key when playing the Pacers. The Heat, however, rank 27th in scoring and 28th in possessions per game. They really struggle to score on the road. The most they've scored away from home is 92 points. Indiana is 11-1 to the under the past 12 times when playing on two days rest. |
12-11-15 |
Cavs -3 v. Magic | Top | 111-76 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Orlando is much improved, playing far better defense under Scott Skiles than they did under Jacque Vaughn last season. The Magic's young players are developing well under Skills, too. But the Magic aren't ready to step up against Cleveland as this low spread may indicate. The Cavaliers have defeated Orlando 11 consecutive times, winning those matchups by an average of 14.1 points a game. They defeated the Magic, 117-103, at home on Nov. 23. Cleveland has covered in its last six visits to Orlando. The Magic can now beat bad teams. But they have struggled against elite foes. Their best win is against Toronto. The Magic lack a go-to scorer. They struggle in close games often taking bad shots late in games and losing composure. The veteran Cavaliers can exploit that. Orlando has no answer for LeBron James. There's a chance the Cavaliers could also get back Iman Shumpert here. I can't see the Magic having the consistency for four quarters that is necessary to beat an opponent the caliber of Cleveland. James is going to get to the free throw line often as Orlando gives up the fourth-most foul shots per 48 minutes in the league. The Magic, however, just rank 28th in free throws attempted. So I envision a disparity in free throw shots between the two teams as the youthful Magic get too pumped for this marquee opponent. The spot isn't good either for the Magic. The Cavaliers have been idle since Tuesday. Orlando, on the other hand, finished a five-game, 10-day road trip with a 107-104 loss to the Suns this past Wednesday night leaving them little time to get back adjusted to Florida life.
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12-10-15 |
Clippers v. Bulls UNDER 201.5 | Top | 80-83 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Clippers at Bulls Under 201 Both teams played last night in fast-paced game breaking 100 points each. The Bulls lost 105-100 to the Celtics on the road while the Clippers buried the Bucks, 109-95, on the road. Both games went over the total. Now look for a much slower tempo in this matchup since the Clippers and Bulls both played last night and each are in action for the third time in four days. The under has cashed four of the last five times the Clippers have played with zero rest.
Chicago is averaging 95.8 points in its last eight games. The Bulls have lost three in a row so this is a stop-the-pain game for them. Their defensive intensity should be up. As for their offense, they're still not sure what they're doing under rookie coach Fred Hoiberg. The Bulls are 9-2-1 to the under in their last 12 games at United Center. They also have gone under seven of the past eight times they've faced a Western Conference opponent.
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12-10-15 |
76ers v. Nets UNDER 197.5 | | 91-100 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
This total is too high for these two teams. The recent scoring average for each team is inflated by both having played Houston.
If you discount their game versus the Rockets, the 76ers are averaging 86.6 points in their last eight road games. If you discount their matchup against the Rockets, the Nets are averaging 91.6 points in their last five games.
Philadelphia is the lowest scoring team in the league and second to last in field goal percentage. The Nets have the worst 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA and rank 25th in scoring. |
12-09-15 |
Long Beach State +4 v. Pepperdine | Top | 75-77 |
Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
I believe the wrong team is favored. Both teams are .500, but Long Beach State has played a far more difficult schedule, one of the toughest non-conference slates in the country. That's going to help the 49ers here. Long Beach State is 5-5. But its losses have come to Virginia, Oklahoma State twice, San Diego State and UCLA. Those were all on the road, too. This has made the 49ers battle-tested and underrated. The 49ers are an excellent 3-point shooting team with good depth. Nick Faust just was named Big West Conference Player of the Week this past Monday. The Maryland transfer is living up to his billing averaging better than 17 points per game. Sophomore point guard Justin Bibbins is playing well, too, keeping up the 49ers' tradition of good point guards. Bibbins has done the job replacing three-year starter Michael Caffey, ranking second in the Big West in assists and being 16th in the nation in assists-to-turnovers. Pepperdine doesn't have Long Beach State's offense, is undersized and turnover-prone. The 49ers average four more points per game than the Waves and are better from the free throw line. Pepperdine lost by 14 to UCLA on the road earlier this season, while Long Beach State fell to the Bruins by seven in its last game this past Sunday. The 49ers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games, while Pepperdine has failed to cover in seven of its last nine games. |
12-09-15 |
Lakers +6.5 v. Wolves | | 122-123 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
As bad as the Lakers are, the Timberwolves can't be laying these many points. Minnesota have lost four in a row. They are 2-9 at home and 4-22-1 ATS during their last 27 games at Target Center versus an opponent with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Lakers have revenge for a one-point home loss to Minnesota in which they shot just 37.6 percent from the field. LA has won during its last two visits to Minnesota. Kobe Bryant actually made half of his field goal attempts in the Lakers' last game helping the Lakers cover against the Raptors. The Lakers are going to have few winnable road matchups. This is one of them. |
12-09-15 |
Grizzlies +4 v. Pistons | | 93-92 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
The Grizzlies haven't yet reverted to their past consistent form. But they still are a level above the Pistons. This is a bounce back spot for Memphis after being embarrassed, 125-88, by Oklahoma City at home last night. The lone bright spot for Memphis from that game is that only Zach Randolph played more than 30 minutes. Memphis has followed up each of its last four defeats with a victory in its next game. The Pistons have matchup problems against the Grizzlies lacking the perimeter game to draw the Grizzlies' big front line out of the paint. Only two teams are shooting worse from the floor than the Pistons, who make less than 42 percent of their field goals. The Pistons also are 21st in defensive field goal percentage at 45.1 percent. Memphis is 10-0 when shooting above 42 percent from the field. |
12-08-15 |
Maryland -128 v. Connecticut | | 76-66 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Early money has come on Maryland and I agree with the marketplace. Maryland is the superior team. I respect Connecticut's defense, but the Terrapins have NBA-caliber players and rank third in the nation in field goal percentage. They have shot better than 50 percent in five straight games.
Playing and losing at North Carolina was good experience and humbling for Maryland. It makes the Terrapins more battle tested for this matchup.
Note that this game is being played at Madison Square Garden. The Terrapins are 14-6 ATS in neutral site contests. Connecticut already has dropped neutral site games to Syracuse and Gonzaga. |
12-08-15 |
Rockets -4 v. Nets | Top | 105-110 |
Loss | -115 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
It took the firing of Kevin McHale and getting Ty Lawson out of the starting point guard role, but the Rockets are finally coming on. They've won three in a row and five of their last six. Houston has beaten the Nets in 11 of its last 12 visits. The Rockets catch the Nets shorthanded missing two of their rotation players, Andrea Bargnani and rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who had been providing Brooklyn with a spark. Patrick Beverly is a much better point guard fit for the Rockets than the diminutive Lawson because he's unselfish and is a much better defender. James Harden needs to be able to concentrate on his offense. Harden has been playing up to his superstar level since the change. The Rockets aren't shy about shooting 3-pointers with Harden. The Nets rank 27th in 3-point defense. This isn't a flat spot game either for the Rockets. They have revenge for when the Nets beat them in Houston, 106-98, on Nov. 11 when they weren't playing well.
The Nets are last in 3-pointers and third-to-last in scoring. They haven't reached triple digits in their last six games. |
12-07-15 |
Suns v. Bulls -6 | Top | 103-101 |
Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Through the course of the long NBA season there are certain up and down spots. Phoenix is in one of the major down spots in its season both physically and mentally. The Suns are playing their sixth road game in nine days, fifth in seven days and second in two days. After this matchup in Chicago, the Suns finally get to head back to the desert. where they haven't been since the day after Thanksgiving. Not only do the Suns carry the highest fatigue rating, but they are demoralized and down mentally. They are 1-8 in their last nine games, 0-4 in their last four games blowing fourth-quarter leads during each game of their losing streak. The worst was on Sunday when the Suns came from six points down against the always physical Grizzlies with 90 seconds left. The Suns managed to tie the score and had the ball for a final shot. However, with less than a second left Brandon Knight lost the ball out of bounds. The Grizzlies then managed to pull off a perfect half-court alley-oop pass to Jeff Green for a dunk and a 95-93 victory. Eric Bledsoe and Jon Leuer each logged more than 40 minutes in the game while Brandon Knight played more than 37 minutes. The Suns do not have a strong bench. During their four-game losing streak, the Suns have lost by a combined 13 points. None of their defeats was by more than five points. They are due to get blown out and the Bulls have the capability and situation to do just that.
Chicago has the fifth highest winning percentage in the NBA. The Bulls beat the Suns, 103-97, on the road on Nov. 18 without Derrick Rose and when Phoenix had Tyson Chandler. The big center has missed the last five games with a hamstring injury and is not expected to play today. Memphis scored 48 points in the paint yesterday against the Suns, who are vulnerable inside without their best rim defender.
The Bulls shouldn't lack for motivation. They are off an embarrassing, 102-96, home loss to Charlotte from two days ago. The Bulls have won and covered the past five times following a defeat.
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12-06-15 |
Suns v. Grizzlies -5.5 | Top | 93-95 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a kill spot for the rested Grizzlies against the weary Suns. Phoenix, with its small lineup, doesn't match up well to the physical Grizzlies. Phoenix has lost during its last seven meetings to Memphis. That's not going to change here. The Suns are playing their fifth consecutive road game and fourth in five days. This is an early start time, too, another negative for the Suns. The Suns are are an up-tempo, guard-oriented team that is running on empty. The Suns also could be without their lone decent big man, Tyson Chandler, for a fifth straight game. The Grizzlies are 8-3 in their last 11 games, having stepped up their play. But they are off their most lopsided loss in a month falling to San Antonio, 103-83, at home this past Thursday. They've had two full days to regroup and get psyched up to take their frustrations out on the Suns. Phoenix just wants to get home. The Suns have lost seven of their past eight playing no defense giving up 113.4 points per game during this span. The Grizzlies offense has picked up with the recent recent pick up of Mario Chalmers. Before losing to the Spurs, the Grizzlies had scored 101 or more points in five of their last six games. |
12-05-15 |
Magic v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 101-103 |
Loss | -110 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Orlando has won five in a row. The Clippers are going to be without star point guard Chris Paul and possibly starting shooting guard J.J. Redick. But there still is enough of a class difference that the Clippers should win especially at home. Orlando's victories during its win streak have been against the Knicks, Celtics, Bucks, Timberwolves and Jazz minus Rudy Gobert. This is a step-up game for the Magic. The Clippers swept last season's two meetings winning by an average of 26 points. Orlando is much improved this season under Scott Skiles, but the gap hasn't been cut nearly enough where the Magic can win this game even without Paul. The Clippers have a veteran, strong bench. The Clippers can overcome the loss of their starting backcourt and will be fired-up to play after being embarrassed at home by the Pacers in their last game this past Wednesday.
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12-05-15 |
Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 191 | | 91-106 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The Knicks are in a flat spot after a satisfying beat down of the Nets last night at home. This marks the Knicks' first road game since Nov. 25. The Bucks have a cluster injury problem at point guard with poor-shooting, turnover-prone Michael Carter-Williams their lone healthy point guard. Greivis Vasquez is out with an ankle injury. So is Jerryd Bayless, who sprained his ankle last night against the Pistons. Tyler Ennis is out, too, with an injured shoulder suffered in practice. The Bucks are averaging just 85.8 points during their last five games. The Knicks rank in the top five in defensive field goal percentage. |
12-05-15 |
Kings v. Rockets -3 | | 113-120 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This line is short given how bad the Kings are and how the Rockets are turning things around under interim coach J.B. Bickerstaff. Sacramento is 1-3 in its last four games and coming off a dreadful second half effort against Boston this past Thursday night in a game played in Mexico. The Kings also lost rookie big man Willie Cauley-Stein for four-to-six weeks after he suffered a dislocated right index finger in the loss to the Celtics. Houston has covered in five of its last six meetings versus the Kings winning all six. James Harden takes full advantage of the Kings' porous defense, which ranks 29th in defensive scoring and in defensive field goal percentage. Harden is averaging 46 points while shooting 53.8 percent from the floor in his last three games against the Kings. The Rockets have picked up their play since firing Kevin McHale winning four of their last five. Houston defeated Dallas on the road last night without Dwight Howard. He's expected to play in this matchup going against DeMarcus Cousins. |
12-04-15 |
Cavs v. Pelicans OVER 208 | | 108-114 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
New Orleans really struggles defensively. The Pelicans have yielded triple digits in all but two of their 19 games.
The Pelicans can score, though, especially now with a healthy Tyreke Evans back. Jrue Holiday also will be playing in this game. Both players are more offensive than defensive minded.
The Pelicans average 109 points at home. Cleveland is going to get its points. The Cavaliers are 40-18 to the over when playing on two days rest. |
12-04-15 |
Nets +3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 91-108 |
Loss | -115 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
The Knicks are improved this season, but the Nets are way under the radar screen. The perception is the Nets are one of the worst teams in the league. They fulfilled those low expectations and increased that perception by losing their first seven games, covering just once. Since then, however, the Nets have gone 10-1 ATS. During this span they took unbeaten Golden State to overtime on the road, lost by two to the Cavaliers on the road while posting victories against the Rockets, Hawks, Celtics, Pistons and Suns. They have stayed within two points in regulation in eight of their last 11 games. Brooklyn has covered six of its last seven away contests and enter this matchup in good form and with the confidence of having gone 4-0 versus the Knicks last season. The Nets last played on Tuesday when they defeated the Suns, 94-91. During the weekend they lost 90-88 at Cleveland when LeBron James sank a last-second shot and then defeated the Pistons on Sunday. The Nets are a sparkling 8-0 ATS on two days rest. The Knicks halted a four-game losing streak by beating the lowly 76ers on Wednesday taking advantage of a favorable situation where Philadelphia had just ended the longest losing streak in pro sports history the night before and were playing the Knicks without their leading scorer and rebounder, Jahlil Okafor. The Knicks have failed to cover the past four times when playing on one day rest.
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12-02-15 |
The Citadel v. Air Force OVER 166.5 | | 93-97 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Look for Air Force to improved on its 42 percent field goal shooting against The Citadel, which ranks among the worst defensive teams. Opponents are making better than 53 percent of their shots from the floor against The Citadel. Air Force led the Mountain West Conference in field goal percentage last season at 47.4 percent. The Citadel can't play defense, but it can score being up-tempo, making 33 percent of their 3-point shots - which it fires at will - and hit 82.2 percent from the foul line. Only nine teams fire up more shots per game than The Citadel. The Bulldogs, though, are surrendering 106.7 points per game when playing on the road. The average combined final score total on a game involving The Citadel this season is 188.8 points. Air Force has gone over the total in 17 of its last 22 games. The over, meanwhile, has cashed in 21 of the Bulldogs' last 27 games. |
12-02-15 |
Raptors v. Hawks OVER 196 | | 96-86 |
Loss | -115 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
The Hawks are much more efficient on offense when playing at home shooting 47.4 percent from the floor compared to 44 percent on the road. Their 3-point shooting is better, too, at home - 37.2 percent to 33.6 percent on the road. Atlanta is averaging 110 points during its last three home games. The Hawks are healthy and should put up triple digits again at home. Toronto has a strong history of going over the total (18-7-1 over) when playing at Atlanta. The Raptors have scored 100 or more points in eight of their last 11 games. |
12-02-15 |
76ers v. Knicks -8.5 | Top | 87-99 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
This may be the only time all season, but the 76ers are in a letdown spot. Philadelphia got the monkey off its back ending its 28-game losing streak by beating the Lakers, 103-91, at home last night. Now the 76ers have to play 24 hours later on the road - and for the third time in four days - against a Knicks team that desperately needs to win this game. The 76ers lack the maturity and experience to play well without rest after an emotional victory. New York has been idle since Sunday. The Knicks have lost four in a row after a tough overtime loss to Houston. The Knicks were missing Carmelo Anthony due to illness in that loss. He's expected to play today. The Knicks have increased their firepower with Anthony, a now healthy Arron Affalo and good-looking rookie Kristaps Porzingis, who is averaging 17 points and 11.6 rebounds during his last five games. |
12-01-15 |
Lakers v. 76ers UNDER 197.5 | Top | 91-103 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
There could actually be some defensive intensity in this matchup as the 76ers try to end a 28-game losing streak, the longest losing streak in major U.S. team sports history. The 76ers are hosting the Lakers, the worst team in the Western Conference with a 2-14 mark. Both teams are offensively challenged. The Lakers rank last in the NBA in field goal percentage. They are averaging just 92 points in their last five games and are 6-1 under in their last seven games versus Eastern Conference opponents. This is Kobe Bryant's final game in Philadelphia. So expect him to fire up a lot of shots. That's good for the under, too, since Bryant is making only 30.5 percent of his shots from the field this season. That figure shrinks to 23.7 percent going on his last four games. Philadelphia is last in scoring in the NBA at 90.8 points per game. Only twice in their last 10 games have the 76ers broken the 91-point barrier. |
11-30-15 |
Mavs -117 v. Kings | | 98-112 |
Loss | -117 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
I like the Mavericks enough to put them out at this price without DeMarcus Cousins' status being known yet. Cousins has missed the Kings' last three games with a back sprain. Sacramento is 1-7 without him this season. So obviously it's a huge plus if Cousins misses another game. Even if Cousins plays, though, the Mavericks are the better team. They certainly have more savvy and veteran experience being the second-oldest team in the league. Dallas has taken advantage of the Kings' immaturity for years winning nine of the past 11 times in Sacramento, including the last three. Cousins could be a little rusty if he gets the green light. He'll be defended by Zaza Pachulia, who is having a career year so far. Rojon Rondo is having a huge comeback season. He'll be motivated to do well against his former team having had multiple conflicts with Dallas coach Rick Carlisle last season. But this cuts both ways. The Mavs certainly are familiar with Rondo. Deron Williams is having his own nice comeback season for Dallas. The Kings rank last in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. They have failed to cover in six of their last seven games versus Western Conference foes, while the Mavericks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games versus Western Conference opponents. |
11-30-15 |
Mavs v. Kings UNDER 214.5 | | 98-112 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
It now appears DeMarcus Cousins is going to play for the Kings. He's missed the last three games with a sore back. That's good and bad for the total. Cousins is a top scorer, but also is an excellent rebounder and shot blocker. He's not going to be rusty defensively. But he could rusty on offense. If Cousins doesn't play that's good, too, for the under because his fill-ins are not scorers. Dallas is averaging just 90.3 points in its last three games. The Mavericks do not have a strong inside scoring game. They are just 24th in 3-point shooting, though. |
11-30-15 |
Nuggets v. Bucks -3 | Top | 74-92 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Bucks have revenge for a 103-102 loss to the Nuggets on Nov. 11. The Bucks were minus Michael Carter-Williams and Jabari Parker in that game. Denver has lost six in a row. The Nuggets have failed to cover in their last five games. The Bucks are the deeper team and have shown signs of playing better defense.
The Bucks have the defensive guards and depth to exploit Denver rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, who is on pace to become the first player in league history to shoot less than 35 percent from the field and commit an average of three turnovers a game. |
11-28-15 |
Nets +10 v. Cavs | Top | 88-90 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
The won-lost record is terrible, but quietly the Nets have covered seven of their last eight games. They are 4-0 ATS this season when getting 10 or more points. The Nets are a veteran team that should be motivated going against LeBron James. The Cavaliers aren't so excited about playing the lowly Nets especially after ending a three-game road losing streak by defeating Charlotte, 95-90, last night. James played 38 minutes in that game so he's likely not to log such a high minute count in this matchup. While the Cavaliers were playing a tough game last night, the Nets have been idle the past two days. Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS the last seven times when playing on two days rest. They also are 21-7 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. The Cavaliers have failed to cover eight of the last 10 times following a victory. The Cavaliers, still minus Kyrie Irving, have yet to come together. They have a tendency to play to the level of their competition. That's evident in the Cavaliers just beating the winless 76ers by seven and six points this season.
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11-27-15 |
Bucks v. Magic OVER 199 | Top | 90-114 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
The Bucks are horrible this season on defense. They've given up an average of 114 points during their last five games. Milwaukee has yielded at least 103 points per game in six of its last seven games. Sacramento scored 129 points on the Bucks two nights ago - without DeMarcus Cousins. Orlando is below average in field goal shooting, but the Magic have scorers in Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris, Evan Fournier and Victor Oladipo, who is coming off the bench now. Scott Skiles coached the Bucks before leaving by mutual agreement in Jan. of 2013. So you know he wants this game. Jason Kidd's answer to the Bucks' porous defense is to outscore the opposition. Kidd is trying to do this by increasing tempo having point guard Michael Carter-Williams force pace.
The Bucks have done this the past two games and put up 109 points versus the Pistons and 118 against the Kings. |
11-25-15 |
Kings v. Bucks -4.5 | | 129-118 |
Loss | -105 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
The Bucks have the offense to take advantage of Sacramento's 29th-ranked defense that is yielding nearly 109 points per game. The Bucks are coming off a 109-point game against the Pistons two nights ago, the most they've scored since the second game of the season. Milwaukee's bench scoring is up with O.J. Mayo back after missing the first 11 games of the season. The Kings aren't likely to have star center DeMarcus Cousins. If Cousins doesn't play - as expected - the Kings are weakened on both ends of the court. The Bucks scored 58 points in the paint against the Pistons while shooting 52 percent from the field. Milwaukee's athleticism can hurt the Kings' too. Sacramento ranks last in defensive field goal percentage. The Kings have yet to win in five games without Cousins this season. They are 2-3 ATS without him. Their closest loss without Cousins was by six points. The Kings also are facing fatigue issues. This marks their fifth consecutive road game and fifth game in eight days. They return to California after the game so their focus could be off. |
11-25-15 |
Kings v. Bucks OVER 207 | Top | 129-118 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Sacramento is the worst defensive team in the NBA ranking last in opposing field-goal percentage and second-to-last in points allowed per game at 108.3. The Kings not only play bad defense, but they play up-tempo - a great combination for an over. Rojon Rondo is having a big comeback season. He leads the NBA in triple-doubles and in assists at 10.8 per game. DeMarcus Cousins isn't likely to play. This cuts both ways, though. The Kings lose his offense, but become more vulnerable inside. The Bucks have talked about pushing pace more, which makes sense giving their athletic makeup. They showed a faster tempo in their last game, a 109-88, home win against the Pistons. The Bucks scored 58 points in the paint and point guard Michael Carter-Williams played well with an aggressive mentality, something that had been lacking from him previously. The Bucks also have O.J. Mayo healthy to give them a big scorer off the bench.
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11-24-15 |
Celtics v. Hawks -3.5 | | 97-121 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Boston is a well-coached, overachieving bunch that can't be taken for granted. The Hawks aren't about to do that in this revenge spot. The Hawks got pushed around 11 days ago in a 106-93 road loss to Boston. Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer had to miss that game due to personal reasons. He's back and has had ample time to prepare since Atlanta last played on Saturday. The Hawks go on a three-game road trip immediately following this game. Then they return home to face Oklahoma City and Toronto. So this is a game they need to focus and win. Atlanta has lost four of its last five. But the Hawks are now finally healthy with point guard Jeff Teague back. Teague, Al Horford, Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver were all All-Stars last season. The Hawks are due to start playing better. The Celtics' backcourt lost some of their depth with Marcus Smart out. He is Boston's top perimeter defensive guard. |
11-24-15 |
Mavs v. Grizzlies -3 | | 96-110 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Dallas has been better than expected. Credit to Rick Carlisle and veterans Dirk Nowitzki and Deron Williams. However, the Mavericks have match up problems in this game. Their weakness is inside where the Grizzlies are tough even if Zach Randolph remains out. Dallas has lost four of five times when surrendering 44 or more points in the paint. The Grizzlies have beaten the Mavericks 10 of the last 14 times, including four of the past five times. The Mavericks do not have a good road history when stepping up at 5-17 ATS when meeting an opponent with a winning home record. The Grizzlies started slow, but are beginning to come on. If not for a road loss to power San Antonio they would be riding a five-game winning streak. Memphis is the more rested team, too, having been idle since Saturday. Dallas played two days ago losing a tough 117-114 road game to Oklahoma City. |
11-24-15 |
Pacers v. Wizards -125 | | 123-106 |
Loss | -125 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Indiana is hot. So is Washington with three straight victories. I'm getting involved with the Wizards because of the low number, they are home and having underrated Bradley Beal back in the lineup. He makes a difference. Indiana is off a couple of blowout victories against the 76ers and Bucks. Now the Pacers are stepping way up in class offensively as the 76ers rank last in scoring and the Bucks are 25th. Washington ranks in the top eight in scoring and field goal percentage. The Wizards are playing more up-tempo and I envision the Pacers having problems keeping up especially in the backcourt. Point guard George Hill has missed the last three games with an upper respiratory infection. He's likely to play today, but will be rusty and at a disadvantage going against John Wall. |
11-23-15 |
Idaho v. North Texas OVER 147.5 | Top | 65-63 |
Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
North Texas State has made it a high priority to improve its offense. The Mean Green are doing that by using a fast pace tempo. They have two good point guards - J-Mychal Reese and Ja'Michael Brown - and a number of good scorers. North Texas opened with victories against Jarvis Christian, 112-82, and Texas College, 110-61. This is North Texas' own tournament so the Mean Green wants to look good. The way to do that is score a lot of points. Now the Mean Green face Idaho, a much stronger defensive team than the first two cupcakes they played. Still, I see North Texas getting a lot of points at home with their new style. Idaho can score, too. The Vandals have a strong backcourt. They rank 16th in the country in 3-point shooting. |
11-22-15 |
Akron +15 v. Villanova | | 56-75 |
Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Akron has the versatility and 3-point shooters to hang around with Villanova. The Zips proved that in upsetting Arkanas, 88-80, at Arkansas. Akron is hitting 41.3 percent from 3-point range. The Zips also rank first in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. This combination plus an inflated pointspread make the Zips attractive. The Zips also have a proven track record versus strong teams going 12-3-1 ATS the past 16 times when taking on opponents with a winning percentage above .600. |
11-21-15 |
Kings v. Magic -2.5 | Top | 97-91 |
Loss | -110 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
The oddsmaker continues to underrate the Magic and he's doing it again in this matchup. Orlando has one of the best spread marks in the league at 8-3-1. The Magic are a respectable 6-6 straight-up. The actually could be 10-2 if they had not blown late leads against the Wizards twice, Thunder and Rockets. Still, Orlando has won five of its last seven games. The Magic players are pumped to go above .500 for the first time especially accomplishing the feat at home. The Magic have really improved their defense under Scott Skiles going from 25th in defensive efficiency to ranking in the top five. Orlando draws the Kings playing in their third road game in four days. This could take a toll on fragile point guard Rajon Rondo, who is playing well but logging huge minutes. Sacramento has a poor road history and that's holding up this season. The Kings have yet to win in four away games. There's a possibility the Kings could be without their second-best player, Rudy Gay. He suffered a shoulder injury in the Kings' last game. |
11-20-15 |
San Jose State +7 v. Montana State | | 69-81 |
Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
San Jose State is a bit under-the-radar. The Spartans are more athletic and improved from last season's disastrous season. The Spartans beat Montana, 64-61, in their last game this past Monday. Now they draw 1-2 Montana State, which is overpriced according to my power ratings. The Bobcats have failed to cover in five of their last six home games. |
11-20-15 |
Portland v. Colorado -13 | | 63-85 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Portland is a middle of the road West Coast Conference team that is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games versus Pac-12 teams. I see the Pilots having trouble in this tough road venue, made worse by high altitude. Colorado is extremely tough at home under Tad Boyle going 72-14. The Buffaloes have size, depth and talent despite the loss of several stars from last season. This is a bad early-season foe for the Pilots, who are young in the frontcourt and not settled on a rotation. I don't see the Pilots being competitive against this foe and in this spot. |
11-20-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Utah +3 | | 90-66 |
Loss | -115 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Miami has been shooting above its heads. I see the Hurricanes having problems dealing with Utah's powerful front line headed by 7-footer Jakob Poeltl and Jordan Loveridge. They can control the boards and keep Miami from running. It's not just the Utes' front line I like. The backcourt tandem of Brandon Taylor and Lorenzo Bonam also is playing well. Utah has covered in six of its last eight neutral site games. |
11-20-15 |
76ers +10.5 v. Hornets | Top | 88-113 |
Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
The 76ers' losing streak is now at 22, including 0-12 this season following a humiliating 112-85 home loss to Indiana two nights ago. Even the 76ers have a certain pride level - and it has kicked in following that dreadful defeat. Philadelphia opens a six-game road trip against Charlotte, an improved club but not a power by any means. Charlotte is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 home games versus opponents with a losing mark. The 76ers have played better on the road where there has been less pressure and no booing from their disgusted home crowd. The 76ers have responded by covering three of their last four away contests. During this span, Philadelphia lost to the Bucks by just four points, to the Cavaliers by six and to the Spurs by nine. The Hornets played the Spurs on the road, too, and lost by 20 points. The 76ers aren't without talent with rookie-of-the-year candidate Jahil Okafor, Nerlens Noel and point guard T.J. McConnell.
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11-19-15 |
Boise State +12 v. Arizona | | 76-88 |
Push | 0 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Boise State has experience and star power with Anthony Drmic and Nick Duncan. The Broncos are going to get their points. They are 9-1 ATS the past 10 times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The Broncos are being underrated too much with this high of a point spread. Arizona suffered a lot of losses from last season's team with just center Kaleb Tarczewewski returning. Arizona has had problems with Mountain West teams failing to cover 10 of the past 11 times against them. |
11-18-15 |
Bulls v. Suns -130 | | 103-97 |
Loss | -130 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Each team has won three in a row. But I've been more impressed with the Suns. Plus Phoenix is home and has a coaching advantage with Jeff Hornacek over Fred Hoiberg. Chicago has defeated the 76ers, Hornets and Pacers, who were missing point guard George Hill, by one point during its winning streak going 1-2 ATS. Derrick Rose isn't expected to play today after spraining his ankle against the Pacers. Chicago is 0-5 ATS following a point spread cover. The Suns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games. They are getting outstanding backcourt play from Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, perhaps the most underrated guard tandem in the league. The Suns' frontcourt should be bolstered with the likely return of Markieff Morris, who has missed the last two games with a sprained knee. The Suns have been home for more than a week. Their past three games all have blowout victories against the Clippers, Nuggets and Lakers. While the Suns have been impressive at home, the Bulls have been less than stellar on the road going 2-2 with victories versus bottom feeders the 76ers and Nets and losses to the Pistons and Hornets. |
11-18-15 |
Raptors v. Jazz -3.5 | | 89-93 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
This is a horrible spot for the Raptors, who went all out to try to upset Golden State last night. Their key players had to log huge minutes.
Now they face the rugged and physical defensive-minded Jazz with less than a full 24 hours to get reinvigorated. Playing in high altitude doesn't help either.
The Jazz have been idle since Sunday and been one of the better teams in the NBA since the All-Star break of last season. They rank No. 3 defensively in the league. |
11-18-15 |
Wolves v. Magic -3 | Top | 101-104 |
Push | 0 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Orlando is one of the most improved teams in the league as its young talent matures and reaches its potential. The oddsmaker hasn't fully grasped how good Orlando is as the Magic own the best point spread mark in the NBA at 8-3 ATS. The Magic are home here and catch Minnesota in a letdown spot. The Timberwolves upset the Heat, 103-91, at Miami last night. The Magic have dominated the Timberwolves winning 11 of the last 13 in the series, including seven in a row at home covering the past five times in those games. It's an added plus for the Magic if Victor Oladipo returns to the lineup. |
11-17-15 |
Hawks -3.5 v. Nets | Top | 88-90 |
Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
This is Brooklyn's first home game in 11 days. The Nets just returned from a four-game road trip where they beat the struggling Rockets and nearly upset the Kings and Warriors during their past two games. The Nets have failed to cover in their last four home games. I don't like the spot they are in after being gone from home for so long. The Hawks are the superior team and are not going to take the 1-9 Nets lightly after losing 97-96 at home to Utah this past Sunday. Atlanta is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games. The spread is low because point guard Jeff Teague may be out. He didn't play Sunday versus the Jazz due to an ankle injury. I'm fine if Teague can't play because Dennis Schroder is a reliable backup. The Hawks match up well to the Nets, who lack the necessary rebounding to take advantage of Atlanta's vulnerability on the boards. Atlanta has won the past six games in the series, including whipping the Nets, 101-87, in Atlanta on Nov. 4. The Nets couldn't stop the Hawks' pick-and-roll in that game. |
11-17-15 |
Dartmouth v. Marist +2.5 | | 63-73 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
Marist is well balanced, is home and coached by Mike Maker, who coached at Dartmouth for 11 years so he knows that team extremely well.
Dartmouth has failed to cover in 16 of its last 22 games. Dartmouth also is 0-5 the past five times facing an opponent from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference and is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games. |
11-16-15 |
San Diego State v. Utah -5 | Top | 76-81 |
Push | 0 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Power-ratings-wise I have Utah favored by more than this line. Look for San Diego State to have problems containing Utah center Jakob Poeltl. The Utes are going to be tough especially with the improvement made by sophomore forward Kyle Kuzma.
San Diego State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games. Utah is a dominant 40-14 the past 54 times at home. |
11-15-15 |
Grizzlies -2.5 v. Wolves | Top | 114-106 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Memphis is a disappointing 4-6. But the Grizzlies have taken care of business when playing bad teams beating the Pacers early in the season before Indiana got turned around, beating the Nets and Kings by double-digits and holding a fourth-quarter 10-point lead on Portland this past Friday before winning by just one point. Nearly all of the Grizzlies' losses have all come to good teams - Warriors twice, Cavaliers, Clippers, Jazz and at the Trail Blazers, who are much stronger at home. The Timberwolves are not in that class. After opening the season with consecutive victories, the Timberwolves have reverted back to their losing form and lack of defense. Minnesota has lost its last three games. The Timberwolves are giving up an average of 111.8 points per game during their last four games. They have been without point guard Ricky Rubio in their last three games. Rubio is questionable today because of his hamstring injury. The Timberwolves also have been without center Nikola Pekovic. He remains sidelined indefinitely following surgery on his Achilles tendon. The Timberwolves are really going to miss him in this matchup against the physical, frontcourt dominated Grizzlies. Marc Gasol is beginning to elevate his game. He's averaging 28.5 points on 51.5 percent shooting from the floor during the last two games. Minnesota has been particularly bad at home going 0-4 SU and ATS at Target Center this season. Going back to last season, the Timberwolves are 0-12, 1-11 ATS at home.
Memphis has won in seven of its last nine visits to Minnesota. The Grizzlies strengthened their backcourt with the addition of veteran Mario Chalmers, who looked good in his Memphis debut two nights ago. The Grizzlies have won 50 or more games each of the last three seasons. They are proven winners and have the same players back. Slow start or not, they remain vastly superior to Minnesota. |
11-14-15 |
Western Michigan +5.5 v. DePaul | | 63-69 |
Loss | -105 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
DePaul has failed to cover in its last six non-conference games. I see that trend continuing here. Western Michigan has had three consecutive 20-win seasons. The Broncos are one of the best teams in the MAC. DePaul is one of the three worst teams in the Big East. The line is higher than it should be because Connar Tava, the Broncos' best returning player, is out with a broken foot. But the Broncos have been practicing for weeks without him. Western Michigan still has enough depth, athleticism and flexibility with a deep roster to overcome Tava's loss.
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11-13-15 |
Rice v. California -15.5 | Top | 65-97 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
California has won its last nine opening games. That streak should easily continue against Rice. The Golden Bears are going to be extremely strong this season with three of their top scorers back and bringing in a strong recruiting class. The Golden Bears are especially strong in the backcourt where Jordan Mathews and Jabari Bird are now joined by Georgetown transfer Stephen Domingo. Cal also has a pair of 7-footers coming off the bench to bolster its already strong frontcourt that will have a huge size advantage in this matchup. Rice is an extremely young team that is going to be vulnerable early in the season with just one senior and 10 freshmen/sophomores. |
11-13-15 |
Texas -11 v. Washington | | 71-77 |
Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Early money has come on Texas and it's smart money. New coach Shaka Smart is a great fit for the Longhorns with his trapping, full-court pressure style. Washington is vulnerable to it starting four freshmen. The Huskies are in transition after losing eight players and an assistant coach during the off-season following 15 losses in their last 20 games of the season.
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11-13-15 |
Rockets -5 v. Nuggets | | 98-107 |
Loss | -105 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
The Rockets are a bunch of talented head cases. So far they are underachieving at 4-4. But this spot and a correction in their outside shooting makes them worth backing here. Houston was stunned by the Nuggets in its opening home loss losing by 20 points. The Rockets may have got caught peeking ahead to this huge revenge spot in their last game when they were upset by the Nets at home, 106-98, this past Wednesday. The Rockets rely on James Harden and hitting their 3-point shots. The Rockets made 34.8 percent of their 3-point shots last season. This season they are making just 28.4 percent from beyond the arc. Denver ranks 24th in 3-point defense allowing opponents to make 36.8 percent. That total goes up to 41.1 if you count the Nuggets' last six games. The Nuggets heavily rely on turnover-prone rookie point guard Emmanuel Mudiay. The Rockets hold a strong backcourt edge with James Harden while Dwight Howard has looked better each game giving the Rockets an inside force. The Nuggets could be thin again in the backcourt if veteran backup point guard Jameer Nelson has to miss a third straight game because of a lower back injury. Before losing to the Nuggets, the Rockets had covered the past four times they played Denver.
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11-13-15 |
Blazers v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 100-101 |
Loss | -105 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Neither team is playing well. The difference is the Grizzlies are a proven playoff contender with the same solid core that made them one of the best teams in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are a stripped down version that can't match the Grizzlies' front line and lacks depth. Add in a favorable situation for Memphis and it's worth the investment to lay the points. This sets up well as a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies. They've dropped four in a row. The losing streak began in Portland eight days ago when the Grizzlies were blown out in embarrassing fashion, 115-96. Memphis then lost road games to the Jazz and Clippers by two points before returning home to lose to the world champion Warriors two nights ago. The Grizzlies have proven talent and depth. They have been one of the premier defensive teams. They haven't suddenly stopped being good. They've just run into tough competition. Now they step down in class and have tremendous motivation. Portland has lost three in a row. The Trail Blazers are giving up 113.7 points per game during its losing skid. Opponents are shooting better than 52 percent from the field during this time span. The Trail Blazers are a bad road team - 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 away contests - and have traditionally struggled at Memphis losing the past seven times there. The Grizzlies are 5-0-1 ATS the last six times hosting Portland. Damian Lillard, Portland's best player, is dealing with a torn nail on his right thumb. Portland needs all the big men it can muster against Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph and Co. But the Trail Blazers could be without center Meyers Leonard, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in Portland's last game.
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11-12-15 |
Clippers -145 v. Suns | Top | 104-118 |
Loss | -145 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
The Clippers are several levels higher than the Suns. But the line is short here because the Suns have been idle since Sunday and the Clippers are 1-3 in their last four games and playing without rest after losing, 118-108, on the road to Dallas last night. The Clippers' negatives can be explained. Let's start five games ago when the Clippers hosted the Suns 10 days ago. LA won, 102-96, for its eighth consecutive victory in the series. Once again the Suns didn't have an answer for Blake Griffin, who is averaging 26.4 points while shooting 58.6 percent during the Clippers' eight game winning streak versus Phoenix. Since then the Clippers have played a brutal schedule of Golden State, Houston, Memphis and aroused Dallas, which was fired up because of being spurred during the off-season by DeAndre Jordan. The Mavericks played their finest game of the season against the Clippers. Now the Clippers step down in class. Phoenix is struggling, too, losing three of its last four. The Suns haven't played the caliber of opponent the Clippers have either. The spot is favorable to Phoenix, although this early in the season having too much time off keeps you from establishing a rhythm. The Clippers' fatigue factor, though, is negated by their strong bench. The Clippers' reserves outscored the Suns bench, 41-29, in their earlier win this season. The Clippers' main bench players - Paul Pierce, Josh Smith, Jamal Crawford, Austin Rivers and Wesley Johnson - are all starter quality. They are far superior to Phoenix's reserves. The Suns also have yet to find a way to stop Griffin.
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11-11-15 |
Spurs -7 v. Blazers | | 113-101 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Not only are the Spurs far superior to the Trail Blazers, but the schedule lays out for them. The Spurs last played on Monday and won't play again until Saturday when they host lowly Philadelphia. So the Spurs should be holding nothing back. In fact, this is a special game for them because it marks LaMarcus Aldridge's return to Portland. The Spurs will want to do all they can to make Aldridge look good against his former team. The Spurs have the frontcourt advantages and depth to beat the Trail Blazers by double digits. San Antonio has covered six of its last eight road games. The Trail Blazers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus opponents with a winning record. |
11-11-15 |
Pistons v. Kings -120 | | 92-101 |
Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
The Kings are a much better team with DeMarcus Cousins in the lineup. Cousins is back after missing four games. Sacramento is just 1-7, but has played a murderous schedule. The Lakers were the only easy opponent the Kings have had so far. The Kings should be fired up after an emotional team meeting on Tuesday. They draw a Pistons squad playing their third road game in four days and fourth road game in six days. Andre Drummond and point guard Reggie Jackson are the Pistons' key players. Drummond is off to a monster start, but can be neutralized by Cousins. Jackson is dealing with a bruised thigh. The Pistons are short-handed at point guard behind Jackson with Brandon Jennings out. Detroit has been a nice early-season surprise going 5-2, but the Kings have better talent than perceived and are in a favorable spot and situation. |
11-11-15 |
Bucks v. Nuggets -144 | | 102-103 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The Bucks are without Michael Carter-Williams and O.J. Mayo. They also will be missing Jabari Parker, who is sitting this game out after playing last night. Milwaukee is struggling and has lost by 8 or more points during each of its last four visits to Denver. The Bucks not only have been playing terrible defense, but scoring just 91.8 points a game during their last four games while shooting 42.4 percent. The Bucks have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games versus Western Conference foes. The Nuggets beat Portland at home two nights ago in their last game. The Nuggets also own a blowout victory against the Rockets, so they are capable. |
11-11-15 |
Clippers v. Mavs +7 | Top | 108-118 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is the home game the Mavericks have had circled ever since DeAndre Jordan backed out of his word to come to Dallas. After Jordan verbally agreed to sign with the Mavericks in free agency, various Clippers personnel came to his home and convinced him to change his mind. The Mavericks did not take kindly to this dirty pool. Dallas is down this year. The Mavericks are not in the Clippers' class. They are borderline playoff team at best. But they will be going all out in this matchup. The Mavericks played their entire 13-man roster last night in a 120-105 road loss to the Pelicans. The Mavericks were never in that game. Dallas coach Rick Carlisle sacrificed that game to set up this spot. No Dallas starter logged more than 23 minutes last night. The Clippers aren't going to be taking this game as serious as Dallas is especially after whipping the Mavericks, 104-88, in LA on Oct. 29. The Mavericks shot just 36.1 percent from the floor in that game and didn't have Chandler Parsons, Deron Williams and Wesley Matthews. All three veterans will be on the floor tonight. That was a rough game with four technical fouls called along with a number of hard fouls. Jordan is the worst free throw shooter in the NBA making only 34 percent of his free throws. Jordan is likely to go to the foul line a lot. Chris Paul isn't 100 percent due to a sore groin. The Clippers defeated the Grizzlies two days ago. They are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on one day's rest. They also have a division road game on Thursday night against the Suns. That's a bigger game for them. It's also my Game of the Week!
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11-10-15 |
Mavs v. Pelicans -123 | | 105-120 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Desperate, revenge, overdue. Any of those words fit the Pelicans' situation for tonight. New Orleans is 0-6. It's the Pelicans' worst start in 11 years. Now New Orleans hosts Dallas. The Pelicans just lost 107-98 to the Mavericks in Dallas this past Saturday. It's a short turnabout revenge spot. The Pelicans were missing Jrue Holiday, who is working his way back from a leg injury. He should play today. New Orleans has too much talent to stay winless with Anthony Davis, Holiday, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson. Davis is unquestionably the best big man in the game averaging 25.2 points, 9.3 rebounds and 2.8 blocks. The Mavericks are in similar to the Pelicans in that some of their key veterans are rounding into shape coming back from injuries. They had a lot of players miss training camp and being on minutes restrictions. It's taking time for the Mavericks, with a bunch of new faces, to get acclimated. Dallas is down this season. The Mavericks are not the playoff caliber squad of past seasons. The Mavericks also have a huge look-ahead game as they host the Clippers on Wednesday. That's their home grudge match game of the year after the Clippers stole free agent DeAndre Jordan from them after Jordan gave his word he'd sign with Dallas. This is a circle-the-wagons game for New Orleans. The Pelicans' next three games are on the road starting Wednesday at Atlanta where they will be heavy underdogs. |
11-09-15 |
Bulls -7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 111-88 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
The winless 76ers are as bad as they have been during their last two tanking seasons. Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games and has lost to Chicago 11 of 12 times, including the last six. It's how the serious opposition takes the 76ers in determining the point spread. The Bulls have been up and down under first-year coach Fred Hoiberg. They are coming off an embarrassing 102-93 home loss to another bottom feeder, the Timberwolves, this past Saturday. That game went into overtime where the Bulls managed to not score a point during the extra session. Humiliating. Chicago doesn't play again until Friday when it hosts Charlotte. So I see the Bulls holding nothing back. This is an opportunity to regain their confidence and get Hoiberg a needed victory. The Bulls have far more talent than the 76ers and also a much stronger bench. Chicago is one of the deepest teams in the league, which is a key if this game should reach garbage time. That's always a strong possibility when the 76ers are involved. |
11-08-15 |
Lakers v. Knicks -4.5 | Top | 95-99 |
Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
The records show the Lakers to be 1-4 and the Knicks 2-4. But there is a class difference here. The Knicks are a level higher than the Lakers and they are boosted by a favorable situation. New York is much improved from last season's disaster. The Lakers were a disaster, too, last season - and they remain a bottom five team. Each of the Knicks' six games have been against a playoff team. Their losses were to the Bucks, Spurs, Cavaliers and Hawks. The Lakers, by contrast, haven't met a playoff opponent yet. Their games have come versus the Timberwolves, Kings, Mavericks, Nuggets and Nets. Not only are the Knicks the more battle tested foe, but they are in a very good spot. This is an early start time. It means for the Lakers their biological clocks have to adjust to playing a morning game by West Coast time. LA opened its five-game road trip with a 104-98 win against the hapless Nets on Friday night. The Lakers have failed to cover the last six times after winning in their previous game. They also are 0-4 ATS in their last four games at Madison Square Garden. New York lost on Friday at home to the Bucks. The Knicks are desperate to reward their home fans as they are 0-3 at home. They are 7-1-1 ATS following a defeat, though. The Knicks went 2-0 versus the Lakers last season - and are much better this year. There also is the Phil Jackson factor. The former long-time Lakers head coach is the Knicks' president. The Knicks certainly don't want to lose at home to Jackson's old team.
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11-06-15 |
Nuggets +18 v. Warriors | Top | 104-119 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
It's dangerous to step in against Golden State. But this is a clear flat spot for the Warriors. Golden State is 5-0 beating all playoff teams. The Warriors' last two victories were grudge matches against the Grizzlies and Clippers. The Warriors play again on Saturday so they'll want to rest players and reduce starter's minutes. Denver is a young, up-and-down team. The Nuggets are capable, though. They proved that upsetting Houston on the road. The Nuggets are not a bottom feeder having defeated the Lakers by 11 points on the road. The Nuggets should play hard here after losing by 12 at home to Utah last night. Fatigue is not an issue this early in the season. This is an inflated line and needs to be taken advantage of. |
11-05-15 |
Grizzlies -4 v. Blazers | | 96-115 |
Loss | -108 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Portland is breaking in four new starters, has a weak bench and carries a heavy fatigue rating playing for the fifth time in seven days. The Trail Blazers are in a letdown spot, too, after a 108-92 road upset win against Utah last night. The physical Grizzlies are one of the toughest opponents to face when tired. They have owned Portland winning 13 of the past 15 matchups, including six of the last eight in Portland. Those Trail Blazers teams were much stronger than this current one. Memphis was embarrassed by Golden State on Monday losing by 50 points. The Grizzlies got on track two nights ago winning by 14 against the Kings. While Portland has regressed, Memphis still is the same team it has been the last few years - one of the best defensive teams in the league and an elite club.
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11-04-15 |
Kings +9 v. Suns | | 97-118 |
Loss | -105 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Sacramento was rusty and minus DeMarcus Cousins when it lost, 103-89, to Memphis last night. The timing wasn't good for the Kings. They had been idle since Saturday, while the Grizzlies were super fired-up having been embarrassed by 50 points by Golden State on Monday night. Cousins is going to miss this game, too. But the Kings fortified their frontcourt during the offseason and have had a game now to adjust to Cousins' absence. Sacramento is better in non-pressure type spots, which this matchup is. Phoenix does not have an imposing frontcourt. The Kings have matched up well to the Suns winning three of four last season. Sacramento also is 4-1 ATS during its last five visits to Phoenix and 3-0-1 ATS the last four times when playing without rest. The Suns' strength is their backcourt. The Kings' backcourt can match them. Rajon Rondo has been playing well this season. So has Darren Collison. The Kings face a much shorter, less physical and much worse defensive team in the Suns than they did last night against the Grizzlies. |
11-04-15 |
Nets +8.5 v. Hawks | | 87-101 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
The Nets won't be lacking for motivation. The Hawks eliminated them in the first round of the playoffs last season. Brooklyn played Atlanta tough in that series taking the heavily favored Hawks to six games while covering four times. Atlanta isn't sneaking up on teams like last season. The Hawks also aren't as good as last season having lost DeMarre Carroll. Atlanta, though, is off an impressive 98-92 road win against the hot Heat. That not only means a letdown for the Hawks here knowing they are playing a weak opponent, but also puts into play the real possibility of Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer resting starters since it's a back-to-back spot. This is something Budenholzer did a lot last season in emulating his mentor Gregg Poppovich. Budenholzer was an assistant to Popovich at San Antonio from 1996-2013. This is a perfect opportunity for Budenholzer to do this since the Hawks are facing a weak foe and playing for the fifth time in seven days and third in four days. There still is the matter of the 0-4 Nets playing well enough to cover. They certainly haven't looked good in getting outscored by an average of nearly 15 points per game. But I trust Lionel Hollins to have the Nets ready for this matchup. Big man Brook Lopez is playing well and the Nets are due to shoot better, especially from 3-point range where normally reliable Joe Johnson has missed nine of 12 from the arc and has been in a scoring slump averaging fewer than 10 points per game. |
11-04-15 |
Spurs v. Wizards +4 | | 99-102 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
The Wizards finally proved they could beat the Spurs, winning 101-93 at home last Jan. 13. That ended a 17-game losing streak to San Antonio. Now Washington hosts San Antonio again - and I like the Wizards' chances. The timing is good for the Wizards catching the Spurs this early in the season and playing on the road for the third time in four days. San Antonio is in transition right now. Roles have changed. There's an adjustment period going on with star newcomer LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs aren't a cohesive unit yet. Far from it. However, they've been fortunate to have played the Nets, Celtics and Knicks so they are on a three-game winning streak. Now the Spurs are in a step-up situation. The Wizards should be ready. They have been idle since Saturday when they played horrible defense in a 117-110 home loss to the Knicks. The Wizards are itching to get back on the court to redeem themselves and now have the confidence knowing they beat the Spurs the last time they hosted them. The Wizards have one of the best backcourts in the league with John Wall and Bradley Beal, who is very underrated. Marcin Gortat is an underrated big man. |
11-03-15 |
Grizzlies -5 v. Kings | | 103-89 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
It's difficult to come back on the Grizzlies after they lost by 50 points to the Warriors last night to begin their season-long five-game, nine-day road trip. The only plus that can be taken from that humiliation for the Grizzlies is that none of their starters played more than 26 minutes. I see the prideful, veteran Grizzlies coming back fired-up to take their frustrations out on perennial bottom-feeder Sacramento. The Kings will be without their best player, DeMarcus Cousins. The Kings went 6-17 without Cousins last season. Cousins, the Kings' leading scorer and rebounder, suffered a sore right Achilles' tendon injury during Saturday's loss to the Clippers. The Kings have been idle since then, but that's actually too much time off for this early in the season. So I see the Kings not only missing their key player but also being rusty. The Grizzlies can't take another loss here on this road trip. The Grizzlies' next four games are at Portland - which is down but remains tough at home - at Utah, at the unbeaten Clippers and then home to the unbeaten Warriors. Sacramento can't match Memphis' defense nor stay with the Grizzlies on the boards, especially minus Cousins, plus the Kings aren't strong mentally. |
11-02-15 |
Grizzlies +9 v. Warriors | Top | 69-119 |
Loss | -105 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
Memphis has proven it can hang with Golden State taking the defending champions to six games in the playoffs last season, including winning Game 2 at Oracle Arena, 97-90. The Grizzlies have their same cast of rough customers that helped them to finish in the top five in defensive scoring each of the last four years. This figures to be a fierce, intense battle with the Grizzlies out for revenge. Memphis has covered in seven of its last 10 visits to Golden State. The Warriors haven't seen a defense this good yet. Golden State has looked good in going 3-0. But two of the victories came against 0-3 New Orleans, which ranks last in defense, has injuries and point guard Jrue Holiday playing limited minutes. The Warriors' other victory occurred against the struggling 0-3 Rockets, who rank 25th defensively and 28th in defensive shooting percentage. Steve Kerr has yet to return to the bench and big man Andrew Bogut is questionable. |
11-02-15 |
Thunder -2 v. Rockets | | 105-110 |
Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
The Thunder are 3-0. The Rockets are 0-3. The records are what they are. Oklahoma City has looked great with a healthy Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka back in the lineup. The Thunder are coming out firing after last season's 3-12 opening that they never could recover from. Durant is averaging 30 points. The Rockets have been just the opposite shooting 37.1 percent from the field and averaging 88.7 points in blowout losses to the Nuggets, Warriors and Heat. James Harden hasn't adjusted to new point guard Ty Lawson yet. Harden is shooting 22 percent from the field and the Rockets are averaging 17 turnovers a game. Dwight Howard is set to play, but he's going to be rusty having played once in the last three weeks. The Rockets aren't likely to have big man Terrence Jones while the Thunder upgraded their frontcourt with Enes Kanter. Oklahoma City played yesterday, but were able to rest its starters during the fourth quarter in a 117-93 blowout of Denver. Durant logged less than 28 minutes. The Thunder is 13-6 ATS following a victory. Houston has had problems since preseason and they haven't gone away. The Rockets have lost all of their games by 20 points. The latest coming yesterday at Miami. Their first two defeats were at home to Denver and Golden State. Harden played 39 minutes on Sunday. So right now this spread is way too short.
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10-31-15 |
Warriors v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 134-120 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The Pelicans have revenge for last season's playoffs when the Warriors swept them four games. New Orleans did cover three of those matchups, though. Now the Pelicans have added revenge after losing this past Tuesday on opening night to Golden State, 111-95. So why should things be different just five days later? The spot, setting, Golden State injuries and Anthony Davis that's why. First, the spot. The Warriors just finished a bigger game knocking off Houston on the road last night. New Orleans followed up its loss to the Warriors by playing this Wednesday and had no energy - physically and mentally - in a 112-94 road loss to Portland. Second, the setting. This is the Pelicans' home opener. They are desperate to avoid starting 0-3 for the first time since 2004-05. New Orleans finished last season covering six of its last seven at home. New Orleans is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 games versus opponents with winning road records. Third, Golden State injuries. Andrew Bogut is out. That means the Warriors can't go big against Davis. Coach Steve Kerr isn't on the trip. He's home recovering from back surgery. Star shooting guard Klay Thompson is off to a slow start caused by an ailing back. He might not see action against the Pelicans after playing 24 minutes last night. Then there's the Davis factor. He's the best big man in the game. Davis entered this season averaging 30.9 points, 12.3 rebounds and shooting 57 percent from the field in his last seven games against the Warriors. But he inexplicably missed 16 of 20 shots from the floor versus the Warriors in the first meeting. That's not going to happen a second time.
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10-30-15 |
Blazers v. Suns -4.5 | | 92-110 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Look for a Suns bounce back after Phoenix was blasted by Dallas, 111-95, two nights ago. Portland, on the other hand, looked great in dispatching New Orleans at home, 112-94, this past Wednesday. Phoenix isn't that bad, nor is Portland that good. The Trail Blazers, in fact, are going to struggle this season especially on the road. They have four new starters. One is C.J. McCollum, who scored 37 points against the Pelicans. McCollum isn't going to be that hot again. The Trail Blazers caught the Pelicans playing on the second of back-to-back nights having just faced the defending world champion Warriors in a huge revenge spot. Portland has failed to cover in six of its last eight visits to Phoenix. The Suns are going to have their intensity up not only for being embarrassed at home in their opener, but also because the organization is honoring popular Steve Nash. Note, too, that the teams play at Portland on Saturday. So if the Suns break to a big lead, Portland coach Terry Stotts may take it easy in order to set things up on Saturday for his team. |
10-30-15 |
Jazz -7 v. 76ers | | 99-71 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
Utah closed as one of the hotter teams in the NBA last season going 21-11. The Jazz were the strongest defensive club in the league down that stretch. The Jazz's priority is to start fast this season. That didn't work out in their first game, a 92-87 road loss to Detroit. Utah plays again on the road in their next game. All together, the Jazz open with a brutal slate of eight of 10 road matchups. So this game has high priority for Utah. The 76ers, on the other hand, have a different priority. They have a young, short-handed roster - only nine healthy players and an extremely weak bench - and are in rebuilt mode again playing for the future. It was not a surprise the Celtics blew out Philadelphia two nights ago. The 76ers could have the worst offense in the league. It's a big concern of their coach, Brett Brown. Utah has won the last five in this series, holding the 76ers to an average of 77 points on 34.6 percent shooting in last season's two victories. |
10-30-15 |
Thunder v. Magic +8.5 | | 139-136 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is a dangerous, flat spot for Oklahoma City. The Thunder were impressive in beating San Antonio, 112-106, at home two nights ago. Up next for the Thunder following this game is a home game on Sunday versus 1-0 Denver followed by a road game against Houston on Monday.
Orlando has been stockpiling talent for the past couple of seasons and now it's ready to pay dividends. The Magic nearly upset Washington in their opener, losing by one point when John Wall hit a shot with 12 seconds left. Orlando led by eight in the fourth quarter. The Magic nearly beat the Wizards despite missing 21 of 26 shots from 3-point range. The Magic have a number of young players poised for breakout seasons - Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Elfrid Payton - plus a steady, double-double machine in big man Nik Vucevic. The Thunder are going to have to deal with the distraction of Billy Donovan returning to Florida. A more quiet factor is the Magic are much better coached this season with Scott Skiles on the bench. He has a track record of turning around bad teams having done it three times. |
10-29-15 |
Hawks -3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-101 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
Let's not overreact to one game. The line is shorter than normal for this matchup because the Hawks lost their opener on Tuesday at home to the Pistons while the Knicks upset the Bucks on the road last night. Yes, New York is improved. And, yes, Atlanta is down a bit from last season. But the Hawks still are way better than the Knicks. The gap has narrowed, but not nearly enough where the Hawks, winners of 60 games last season, should be this short of a favorite against New York, which won 43 fewer games last season than Atlanta. The Knicks matched up well to Milwaukee and caught the Bucks minus three of their top eight players, including suspended Giannis Antetokoumpo. New York's depth is improved, but Carmelo Anthony is extremely rusty. He played last night for the first time since February. He's nowhere near the All-Star caliber player he's been. The Hawks were ambushed by the Pistons. Detroit played great while Atlanta had an off-night missing 19 of 27 shots from 3-point range. The Hawks have their entire team back from last season with the exception of DeMarre Carroll. Their core of Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver is intact. The Knicks can't match that. The Hawks added Tim Hardaway Jr., who's expected to play tonight after being inactive against the Pistons. Hardaway played for the Knicks and can provide useful insight. |
10-29-15 |
Grizzlies -142 v. Pacers | | 112-103 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Memphis had an off-night last night. But the Grizzlies match up up extremely well to the Pacers, who aren't nearly as tall and physical without Roy Hibbert. Minus Hibbert, the Pacers are going to have problems in the paint and controlling the boards. Those are the Grizzlies' major strengths. The veteran Grizzlies are a prideful team. Their core has been together for years. They were embarrassed last night. The Pacers not only are small now, but they have chemistry issues and are getting readjusted to Paul George being back. So the spot is right for Memphis. |
10-28-15 |
Hornets +6.5 v. Heat | | 94-104 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Charlotte was impressive during preseason going 7-1. The Hornets traditionally are good in an underdog role. They have a healthy Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker. Those two missed a combined 37 games last season. The Hornets also upgraded their roster adding Nicolas Batum, an excellent two-way player, Jeremy Lin to upgrade their point guard depth and adding muscle up front with Spencer Hawes and Tyler Hansbrough. The Heat have star power, but Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh and Luol Deng are past their peaks. All were banged-up last season. The Heat weren't able to develop much chemistry during preseason due to minor injuries and key veterans being rested. Goran Dragic also is still trying to fit in. The spot is ripe for the Hornets to steal a game here, or at least certainly keep things close. |
10-28-15 |
Jazz -115 v. Pistons | | 87-92 |
Loss | -115 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The Jazz open their season tonight. Utah was one of the better teams after the All-Star break going 19-10. The Jazz put up the best defensive statistics in the league during that span. Detroit played last night. But it's not the second game in two days factor why I'm fading the Pistons. Their legs are fresh this early in the season. It's the Pistons coming off a hugely satisfying 106-94 upset road win against Atlanta last night. The Pistons aren't good enough or mature enough to handle a victory like that without suffering a letdown even returning to Detroit to play in their home opener. I also believe the Jazz are the better team. They certainly were down the stretch last season. Utah has to play eight of its first 10 games on the road. It's the toughest opening schedule of any team. The Jazz can't afford to start off losing to the Pistons, a team they have beaten 18 of the last 21 times. Utah has covered in nine of its last 10 road games against the Pistons. |
10-28-15 |
76ers v. Celtics UNDER 198 | Top | 95-112 |
Loss | -109 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The 76ers' offense is going to be way down early in the season. This is partly due to injuries to Robert Covington, Tony Wroten and Nik Stauskas. 76ers coach Brett Brown admitted his team's offense is going to be terrible admitting that his young team - no player in the rotation above 24 - needs to work more on studying than specific game planning. The 76ers and Celtics met in a preseason game this past Friday and there were just 146 points scored.
Boston is changing its style and has added many new faces. So an adjustment period is in order. But the bottom line here is the 76ers are going to be the worst offensive team in the league and the oddsmaker is giving them to much credit with a total this high. |
10-27-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 95-111 |
Loss | -102 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
The Pelicans have been waiting all offseason for this opening matchup after Golden State ended their season by sweeping them in the playoffs. New Orleans did cover three of the four playoff games and I see the Pelicans covering here, too. It's always a distraction for the defending champions playing in their first game of the season celebrating ring night. This is especially so for the Warriors, who won their first championship in 40 years and will be without their steady head coach Steve Kerr. Kerr won't be coaching the Warriors probably for at least the first week as he recovers from two offseason back surgeries. That's significant because it elevates 35-year-old Luke Walton into the interim head coaching spot. Walton was the Warriors' No. 3 assistant last season. He faces a huge challenge of making the right substitutions. This is tricky to do because the Warriors have a lot of depth. Kerr was very good at putting the best lineup on the floor depending on matchup and game flow. Alvin Gentry was the Warriors' No. 1 assistant coach last season and he's now the Pelicans head coach. That's a huge edge for New Orleans when playing Golden State. Anthony Davis is the best big man in the game. Gentry believes Davis can reach even greater heights in an up-tempo offense, which is his style. The Pelicans won't have Tyreke Evans, but they do have Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon healthy. |
10-27-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -150 | | 95-97 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a good spot for Chicago in Fred Hoiberg's coaching debut. The Bulls are home and in revenge mode after the Cavaliers beat them in six games during the Eastern Conference semifinals last season. Chicago has improved its depth. The Bulls are the only team in the league that goes 11-12 deep. Derrick Rose is going to start. LeBron James also is going to start for Cleveland, but the Cavaliers will be extremely cautious with him. James was deactivated in preseason dealing with a back injury. The Cavaliers won't have Kyrie Irving and Ian Shumpert, who is their top perimeter defender. Center Timofey Mozgov may not play either because of knee soreness. Then the Cavaliers have rust. Kevin Love is recovering from shoulder surgery. He shot just 33 percent from the floor in preseason. Anderson Varejao is coming off a season-ending Achilles tear and Tristain Thompson is rusty having not played since June missing training camp and preseason. The Bulls have the front line talent and superior bench to take advantage. |
06-14-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers +8.5 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 91-104 |
Loss | -110 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
There is too much value to overlook here on the Cavaliers. The Warriors took advantage of Cleveland's tired legs to blow out the Cavaliers in Game 4. But the Cavaliers will be fresher in this matchup with two days of rest instead of one. Cleveland is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when playing on two days rest. If you throw out Game 4, Cleveland would be 17-0 ATS in the playoffs taking this many points. The Cavaliers also are 7-2 ATS following a non-cover. The Cavaliers are going to shoot better than 33 percent from the floor, which they did in Game 4 while missing 23 of 27 shots from beyond the arc. LeBron James missed 15 of 22 shots from the field. If it weren't for their bad shooting, the Cavaliers were right there with the Warriors in Game 4 outrebounding them and committing fewer than 10 turnovers. James and Co. won't be intimidated playing at Oracle Arena either. They are 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS in the playoffs on the road. One of those losses and non-point spread covers came in Game 1 at Oracle when the Cavaliers lost by eight in overtime. Golden State has failed to cover 10 of its last 15 home contests and haven't been overly impressive in the playoffs. Prop Recommendation: I would play against Andre Iguodala going under his point total and any prop that features his combined points, rebounds and assists. Iguodala is getting a lot of attention because of his 22-point game in Game 4. But he played more than 39 minutes, which is three minutes more than he's played in any of the other nine previous playoff games Golden State has played in. Iguodala averaged just 7.8 points per game during the regular season. Prior to Game 4, he was averaging nine points per game during Golden State's previous nine playoff games. Iguodala is defensive-minded. He's a good all-around player, but shooting is not his strength. He just happen to have a lucky scoring night in Game 4.
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06-11-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 193 | Top | 103-82 |
Loss | -105 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
All three games in this NBA championship Series have gone under the posted total during regulation. It hasn't been that close either as they've gone under by an average of 13.3 points. I get that the series has been about outstanding defense, particularly Cleveland's defense. But this is 10 points under the posted Game 1 total, the lowest over/under of the series. I say it's too much of an adjustment. There are a number of reasons for this. After 11 quarters, the Warriors finally got untracked in the fourth quarter of Game 3 this past Tuesday scoring 36 in the period. Stephen Curry put up 17 of those. Curry finally showed a skip to his step and played like he did during his MVP regular season. Curry is at his best on the open floor. Steve Kerr is going to make that happen by going to a smaller lineup getting David Lee more involved. Lee is an offensive upgrade on ineffective Andrew Bogut and defensive-minded and banged-up Draymond Green. The Cavaliers have a much shorter bench than the Warriors. They have been concentrating on the defensive end while letting LeBron James do nearly all of the offensive work. I can see fatigue affecting Cleveland's defensive effort and intensity in this Game 4, which has a short turnaround time from when Game 3 was played. I also see the Cavaliers stepping up their offensive performance. James is in line for another monster game with Green bothered by a back injury suffered in Game 2. Green, maybe the Warriors' top defender, played barely 30 minutes this past Tuesday. That was the second-fewest minutes he's logged during the playoffs. The Cavaliers put up 52 points in the second half in Game 3. Some of this was because Cavaliers coach David Blatt went to more double high posts, which opened up his team's offense and gave James more freedom.
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06-09-15 |
Golden State Warriors -113 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | | 91-96 |
Loss | -113 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
A combination of the Cavaliers winning Game 2 and now returning home has caused a seven-point adjustment in the line from Game 2. Yes, I was surprised the Warriors fell outright to Cleveland this past Sunday. I certainly respect the Cavaliers and the great LeBron James. But I'm not going to overreact. The Warriors were tight in Game 1. The long layoff following the conference championship game certainly didn't help them. The Warriors got caught playing Cleveland's style too much in Game 2. Now that we're into Game 3, I see the Warriors finally playing up to their capabilities. Golden State is 24-11 ATS the last 35 times following a defeat. Cleveland is 3-8 ATS after covering the spread in its last game. James gives the Cavaliers the best player on the court. But the Warriors dominate from there with Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving out. They also have the far superior bench. Golden State's depth and versatility will be keys in this Game 3 with just one day in between games. The Warriors shot less than 40 percent from the floor in Game 2. They missed 27 of 35 shots from 3-point range. Stephen Curry may have had his worst game ever. Yet Golden State only lost by two points in overtime. That's telling. The Cavaliers are who they are now - heavily LeBron James-oriented. But the Warriors still have several more gears. They are the superior team - and it will show here.
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06-09-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 194 | Top | 91-96 |
Loss | -102 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
A drop of 10 points from Game 1's closing number helps put me on the over in this Game 3 matchup of the Warriors-Cavaliers. The first two games fell under the total during regulation. So there is some zig-zag involved here, but also the fact that the week layoff following the conference championship games and the Finals threw both offenses out of whack. Now the two teams have played a pair of games. LeBron James ranks among the game's greatest players. He's at his peak. The Warriors can't stop him. He's going to do massive offensive damage especially now that the series shifts to Cleveland where James figures to get the majority of calls in his favor. The Warriors, though, should pick up the pace now that they've had a couple of games to adjust to the Cavaliers. The slow pace of Sunday's Game 2 was not conducive to the Warriors. It should be near impossible for Stephen Curry to miss 18 of 23 shots from the floor, including 13 of 15 from 3-point range, like he did this past Sunday. Curry is the most deadly shooter in the league.
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06-07-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors -6.5 | Top | 95-93 |
Loss | -110 | 61 h 47 m | Show |
It's hard to envision the Cavaliers playing much better than they did during the first 48 minutes of Game 1 - and that was before Kyrie Irving suffered a knee injury in overtime. Despite their efforts, the Cavaliers not only failed to win Game 1, but couldn't cover the 5 1/2-to-6 point spread. By contrast, the Warriors didn't bring their "A" game this past Thursday. They came out tight. Perhaps it was a case of nerves following the long layoff. The Warriors missed 16 of 31 inside shots during regulation. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Warriors now in Game 2. Golden State is 20-5-1 ATS the past 26 times when playing on two days rest. On the flip side, I doubt that the Cavaliers can play as well as they did during regulation this past Thursday. That's especially the case with Irving out. Cleveland was plus five points when Irving was on the court and minus 13 when he was on the bench. As great as he is, LeBron James can't do it alone and Golden State's bench is far superior to Cleveland's. The Warriors proved that in Game 1. The Warriors have been strong money-makers in this role going 21-8-2 during their past 31 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark.
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06-04-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Golden State Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-108 |
Win | 100 | 162 h 44 m | Show |
Golden State has been minus 9 1/2, or higher, in each of its eight home playoff games versus the Pelicans, Grizzlies and Rockets. The last time the Warriors were this low of a home favorite was Jan. 5. The Warriors have lost only three times at home all season in 49 games at Oracle Arena. I believe Golden State is the better team - with an emphasis on team - and the point spread is more than fair. The Warriors have played the tougher competition being in the West, have the superior coach, possess better 3-point shooters and are better defensively. Golden State is ready to win the championship. The Warriors have been together the last couple of seasons as they've paid their playoff dues. Their chemistry and togetherness are major keys. An example of this is the Warriors led the NBA in assists per possession and are No. 1 in that category so far during the playoffs. The Cavaliers were just put together this season. Kevin Love is out. Kyrie Irving isn't 100 percent. His defense can be exploited. Cleveland relies so heavily upon LeBron James. Granted, James is the best player in the world. But the Warriors can guard James as well - if not better - than any team in the NBA with a combination of Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Klay Thompson. Green is a top defender and one of the most underrated players in the league. The Warriors should win the rest of the matchups particularly in the backcourt with their own superstar, Stephen Curry, and Thompson. The Cavaliers are more 1-on-1 oriented than the Warriors because of their heavy reliance on James. Green and the tight Warriors defense won't allow James to dominate inside by backing them down. As great as James is, he's still only 12-for-68 from 3-point range during the playoffs for 17 percent. Cleveland can get away with that versus Eastern Conference foes, including a battered Hawks team that relied heavily on reserves and didn't measure up. But the Cavaliers can't get away with this on the road versus the best of the west. The Cavaliers have failed to cover in five of their last six visits to Golden State. |
05-24-15 |
Atlanta Hawks +9.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 111-114 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
I don't believe it's a leap of faith to believe the Hawks can keep things close in this matchup. If the Hawks are going to win a game in this series this is their spot. Atlanta is in desperate straits down 0-2 with both losses coming at home. The Cavaliers can't help but feel overconfident. This is a letdown for them spot up 2-0 and returning home after burying the Hawks by 12 points two nights ago. The Cavaliers are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times they've played on one day's rest. The Cavaliers might elect to hold out Kyrie Irving. Even if the hobbled Irving plays, he'll be wearing a knee brace as he deals with aggravated tendinitis. DeMarre Carroll isn't at 100 percent either for Atlanta and Kyle Korver is out with a sprained ankle. The Hawks' bench, though, is decent and received a lot of work during the latter part of the season. Korver was having a disappointing postseason. The Hawks are just 10-for-49 (20.4 percent) from 3-point range in this series. So Korver wasn't a big help. Atlanta is a much better shooting team than that. Yes, the Hawks don't have anyone near the caliber of LeBron James. But they are a skilled and clever team that - up to this point - always had been relentless and prideful. I believe those season-long traits have not completely disappeared. Atlanta has covered seven of the past eight times following a double-digit loss. They also are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 away matchups versus opponents with a winning home mark.
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05-22-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 197.5 | Top | 94-82 |
Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
Outstanding defense and slow pace. That's a winning combination for an under play - and that's the scenario I see for this Game 2 of the Cavaliers-Hawks Eastern Conference Finals. Cleveland has gone under in six of its last seven road games. The Cavaliers are giving up an average of 86.7 points during their last four games. This isn't a fluke either. Because of Kevin Love's injury, Cavaliers coach David Blatt has figured out his best defensive starting lineup consists of Tristan Thompson and Iman Shumpert being on the court. Cleveland has yielded fewer than 90 points a game during the past six games Thompson and Shumpert have started. Thompson is the ultimate under player - a big man who can rebound and play defense but would rather pass than shoot. The Hawks are a solid defensive team. They've allowed an average of 89.6 points per game during their last three games. DeMarre Carroll may not play. He's a good defender, but his impact would also be felt on Atlanta's offense. The under has cashed in five of the Hawks' last seven home contests. Despite J.R. Smith having a game for the ages in Game 1 hitting eight of 12 shots from 3-point range, the total reached just 186 with Cleveland winning, 97-89. These teams know how to defend each other. They also played at an extremely slow pace with an average of just over four fast break points per quarter, while eating up a lot of clock before shooting. The 92.5 point possession rate the teams played in Game 1 would have ranked last in the NBA. The Hawks' defensive task is made easier by Kyrie Irving being far from 100 percent and now having just one day off between games. The under is 35-15-1 (70 percent) the past 51 times the Cavaliers have played on one day's rest. Minus Love and with Irving hurting, LeBron James has to take deeper shots and he's shooting just 14 percent from 3-point range in the playoffs missing 42 of 49 shots from beyond the arc. The Hawks' best 3-point shooter, Kyle Korver, is wearing down and cold, too. He's missed 12 of his last 15 shots from 3-point range. Atlanta is in a desperate position down 0-1 at home. This is going to be an intense, methodical, grind-out defensive game. Worthy of a strong under play.
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05-20-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Atlanta Hawks -109 | | 97-89 |
Loss | -109 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
I don't see the Hawks getting into a hole right away by losing this Game 1 at home. Both teams have had ample time to prepare, but Kyrie Irving is hobbled. The Cavaliers already are without Kevin Love. LeBron James doesn't have a strong history in Game 1 of past series - 1-3 ATS during his last four playoff series - and Cleveland lost the past three times facing the Hawks during the regular season. The past two games were in Atlanta and the Hawks won those contests by nine and eight points, respectively. The Hawks have a good defensive stopper, DeMarre Carroll. James scored 18 points and turned the ball over nine times the last time he faced Atlanta. James has to do way too much if Irving is too limited by the tendinitis in his left knee. Irving isn't the only Cleveland player hurting. Iman Shumpert (groin) and Tristan Thompson (shoulder) are not 100 percent either. This could impact Cleveland's defense. I trust Atlanta's Mike Budenholzer, the coach of the year, more than I do Cleveland coach David Blatt. The Cavaliers face a tougher adjustment going from the talent-lacking Celtics and cold-shooting Bulls to playing the Hawks, who had a tough series with the Wizards. Al Horford may be the second-best player on the court depending on Irving's physical condition. He stepped up against the Wizards. I expect Kyle Korver, who was so outstanding during the regular season, to get over his uncharacteristic shooting woes. Korver was the best 3-point shooter in the NBA this season, but missed 11 of his last 12 shots from beyond the arc against the Wizards. |
05-19-15 |
Houston Rockets v. Golden State Warriors -10 | Top | 106-110 |
Loss | -109 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
Not only are the Warriors far superior to the Rockets, but the situation sets up well for them. Golden State last played on Friday, while the Rockets exerted all of their energy in capturing their series against the Clippers after being down 3-1 clinching this past Sunday. Certainly I give the Rockets credit for not quitting against the Clippers being down 19 points in the second half on the road in Game 6. But I attribute this more to an epic choke job by LA. I didn't see a lot of defense from Houston. The Rockets were able to take advantage of the Clippers' reserves playing terrible during much of the last four games. The Rockets aren't polished and lack the Warriors' precision and defense. Houston also can't come close to matching up against Golden State's backcourt tandem of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Rockets really are going to miss underrated point guard Patrick Beverley, particularly his defense, in this series. Golden State won and covered all four meetings during the regular season against the Rockets with Curry and Thompson combining to average better than 47 points per game while shooting 50 percent from the field. The point spread may seem high, but the Warriors won 55 percent of their games this season by double-digits. They covered 59 percent of the time when laying 10 or more points. The Rockets have lost 18 times by 10 or more points. The Rockets are 5-4 during their last nine playoff games. Each of those four defeats came by double-digits with their average losing margin being by 21.5 points a game.
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05-17-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. Houston Rockets UNDER 220 | | 100-113 |
Win | 100 | 34 h 47 m | Show |
All six games of this series have gone over the total. Once again we have the highest total of the series. It takes a lot of things to fall into place to exceed this high of a number. Now, for the first time in the series, the teams have two days to prepare and rest instead of just one day. That means a lot this deep into the season especially for the Clippers, who ran out of gas in blowing a 19-point second-half lead this past Thursday. I'm expecting a much tighter Clippers defense. LA is capable of this especially since they've had time to practice for the first time since this series began. The under has cashed the past four times the Clippers have played again after suffering a double-digit home loss. The Clippers also have gone under four of the past five times when playing on two days rest. When the Clippers last played on an extra day of rest, they held the high-scoring Spurs to 94 points during regulation in Game 2 of their opening-round series. DeAndre Jordan and Dwight Howard are two of the best defensive big men in basketball. Intensity is going to be at its peak for both teams in this do-or-die Game 7. That means making that extra pass, making sure to get back in transition and effectively boxing out to prevent offensive rebounds. The pace figures to be more deliberate and the referees aren't going to dominate the action with frequent whistles.
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05-17-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers -125 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 100-113 |
Loss | -125 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
What are the oddsmakers saying by making the Clippers a road favorite against the Rockets in Game 7? They're telling you the Clippers are the better team - and I agree. For the first time since early in their opening round playoff series against the Spurs, the Clippers get two days rest. It couldn't have come at a better team for the Clippers after their epic meltdown in Game 6 blowing a 19-point third quarter lead in their home loss this past Thursday. Credit to the Rockets for this comeback, but the Clippers simply ran out of gas and got too overconfident. That's not going to happen in this game. The Clippers are the smarter team, better coached and have a top floor general in Chris Paul. Josh Smith and Corey Brewer aren't going to get that hot again. Smith is one of the worst percentage shooters in the NBA. The Rockets haven't played any defense in this series. The Clippers were getting good looks, but ran out of gas, which affected their shooting. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when playing on two days rest. They have proven themselves on the road, too covering 76 percent of their past 22 away matchups. Houston has failed to cover in 10 of its past 14 meetings versus the Clippers. |
05-15-15 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Washington Wizards -145 | | 94-91 |
Loss | -145 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Forget that the Hawks went 60-22 during the regular season and Mike Budenholzer was named coach of the year. The Hawks aren't any better than the Wizards right now and Budenholzer isn't coaching any better than Randy Wittman, who I regard as one of the weaker playoff coaches. Atlanta is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Hawks were lucky to win 82-81 at home two nights ago in Game 5 after they blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead. They are 1-5-1 ATS following a victory. Washington is 5-0-1 ATS the past six times after a loss. The Wizards are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus opponents with a winning record and 12-3-2 ATS during their last 17 overall games. The Wizards have matured and are better than a year ago when they fell at home in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference to the top-seeded Pacers and were eliminated. Washington is 3-1 at Verizon Center in the postseason this year compared to 1-4 during the playoffs last season. John Wall and Bradley Beal are better than they were a year. The Wizards didn't have veteran Paul Pierce last season and Otto Porter wasn't making major contributions like he is now in his much improved second season. Wall played for the first time in four games in Game 5. He was rusty, but still put up 15 points and seven assists while learning to adjust with a broken non-shooting hand. Wall should be more effective in today's game. The Hawks struggled to get past the Nets in the first round. They have yet to put together a solid four-quarter game, are on the road and have a disadvantage on the boards and at point guard with Wall returning for Washington. That's enough to get the Wizards a Game 6 victory. |
05-14-15 |
Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 220 | Top | 119-107 |
Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
All five games of this series have gone over the total. Now we have the highest total of the series in this Game 6. This is the time to play contrarian and go under the total. True, these teams are about offense and the Rockets have played terrible defense. But I see this game playing out differently. The Clippers could be tight in the role of huge home favorite with all the pressure on them to close out the Rockets right here. The Rockets have better defenders than perceived. The key for Houston - which it executed in Game 5 - is ball movement. The Rockets should be super intense defensively and patient on offense looking to work their inside-outside game. So I'm expecting a slower tempo than normal between these two clubs.
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