Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-17-22 | Pistons v. Magic -3 | 134-120 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a rarity - laying points with the Magic. But I see Orlando having some intensity at home after giving up 150 points at home in a 42-point loss to the Nets at home two days ago. They couldn't handle Kyrie Irving. Also Orlando is playing Detroit, a fellow bottom-feeder. The Pistons don't have a player the caliber of Irving. The Pistons have lost four in a row. They are 7-28 on the road and may not have their star rookie, Cade Cunningham. He missed Detroit's last game because of illness. The Magic actually had been playing well before that embarrassing loss to the Nets. During their previous four games, the Magic lost to the 76ers by two points in overtime, knocked off the much improved Timberwolves by eight points, defeated the Pelicans on the road and lost by only three to the Suns. | |||||||
03-17-22 | Longwood v. Tennessee OVER 132.5 | 56-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
Longwood has scored 79 points in each of its last three games. The Lancers are an offensive-minded team that ranks 34th in 3-point shooting accuracy. Tennessee is a good 3-point shooting team, too. The Volunteers' outside shooting should open up their inside game. Longwood ranks second-to-last in the tournament in two point field goal defense. Despite playing in the rugged SEC, the Volunteers still scored at least 72 points in nine of their last 13 games. Now they're stepping down in defensive class. | |||||||
03-16-22 | Raptors v. Clippers +1.5 | 103-100 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Raptors on their four-game win streak, all of which have come on the road against the Spurs, Suns, Nuggets and Lakers. It's extremely tough to win five consecutive away games in the NBA. The Raptors are going to draw an aroused Clippers team tonight. Toronto is dealing with a fatigue factor, too, playing for the fourth time in six days. The Clippers are off a 120-111 overtime road loss to the Cavaliers. LA came back from a nine-point deficit with 6:14 left in that game before falling in overtime. Neither Reggie Jackson nor Marcus Morris played in Monday's loss to the Cavaliers. They were rested in anticipation of this matchup. This is the Clippers' lone home game in a six-game span. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times as a home underdog. | |||||||
03-16-22 | Morgan State v. Youngstown State OVER 149.5 | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Both offenses in this Basketball Classic tournament matchup are better than the respective defenses. Morgan State ranks 63rd in the nation in scoring at 75.7 points. Only 13 teams play at a faster pace than the Bears. Morgan State is weak on defense ranking 264th. Youngstown ranks 137th offensively averaging 72.8 points. The Penguins should score more than their season average playing at home against such a weak defense. The Over has cashed in six of their last seven home games. The Penguins, however, rank 193rd in scoring defense, 206th in defensive field goal percentage and 247th in 3-point defense. Both teams are well above average in second chance scoring percentage. | |||||||
03-16-22 | Dayton v. Toledo | Top | 74-55 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
I thought the Mid-American Conference was strong this season. Toledo was the class of that conference going 26-7, including 17-3 in league. But the Rockets were upset in the semifinals of the MAC Tournament by Akron. So the Rockets didn't get an NCAA Tournament berth. Instead they are in the NIT. Unfair? Probably. The key is how will the Rockets react? That's a difficult question. I do think the Rockets, though, will win this game. They catch a huge break getting to be the host team. Toledo is 13-1 at home this season. The Rockets are 12-5 ATS the past 17 times when favored. Dayton is a slow-paced Atlantic-10 Conference team that averages 12 points fewer per game than Toledo. The Flyers are tough defensively. But they don't have the scoring to keep up with the Rockets with the game in Toledo. The Rockets are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation at 81.5 points. They rank 16th in field goal percentage and 21st in free throw percentage. They also are 16th in the country in assist/turnover ratio. | |||||||
03-15-22 | Indiana v. Wyoming +4.5 | 66-58 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 37 m | Show | |
Wyoming is 25-8 finishing fourth in a very tough Mountain West Conference this season. The Cowboys have a tremendous pair in center Graham Ike and guard Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming is 11-4 the past 15 times as an underdog. Indiana had a very strong Big Ten Tournament covering all three of its games posting upset wins against Michigan and Illinois before falling by three points to Iowa as a 5 1/2-point 'dog. Perhaps the Hooisers peaked in the tournament as they were 2-7 during their past nine regular season games. Indiana is a very poor free throw shooting team and I don't trust its offense. Wyoming outscored Indiana by nearly three points per game. The Cowboys also have the better 3-point defense. | |||||||
03-15-22 | Cleveland State +12.5 v. Xavier | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
Every year there are great spots in the NIT featuring favorites who are overpriced because they are off disappointing seasons and suffer letdowns in their first round game. This matchup is a perfect example. Xavier dropped six of its last seven games, including an overtime loss to Butler in the Big East Tournament. The result is no NCAA Tournament bid for the Musketeers. That's a huge disappointment for Xavier. Cleveland State doesn't feel that way about competing in the NIT. The Vikings are anxious to show their wares. They are a solid team that shared the Horizon League regular season title. The Vikings, though, were upset in the league tournament by eventual champion Wright State. The Vikings average 75.6 points. Xavier's defense collapsed, giving up an average of 83.4 points during the last seven games. Xavier has been terrible as a favorite and when playing at home. The Musketeers are 3-10 ATS as chalk and 2-9 ATS in their past 11 home contests. | |||||||
03-15-22 | Belmont +4 v. Vanderbilt | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt had an impressive SEC Tournament knocking off Georgia and Alabama before falling to Kentucky by six points while covering as 11-point underdogs. That helped earn Vanderbilt its first postseason invitation in five years. Vanderbilt is 15-15, which is a nice improvement on last season's nine win team. But I'm not sure how motivated the Commodores will be now in this first round NIT matchup. Belmont should be fired-up, though. The Bruins also are located in Nashville and would like nothing more than to upset their neighborhood rival. Belmont has excelled when getting points covering 12 of the last 16 times it has been a 'dog. The Bruins, unlike Vanderbilt, also have NIT experience having competed five times in the tournament during the past six years. | |||||||
03-14-22 | Nuggets v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | 114-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Don't get dazzled by superstars Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid and James Harden. Defense is going to dominate this matchup. Both teams rank in the top 12 defensively and each team is half-court oriented rather than fast-paced. The Under has cashed in five of the past six meetings between the Nuggets and 76ers. The Nuggets are averaging 107.6 points in their last three games. This is their first East Coast game in more than a month so the time difference could throw off their shooting. If you discount a 121-point game against the Bulls, a below average defensive team, the 76ers are averaging 95.3 points in regulation during their last three games. | |||||||
03-13-22 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 147.5 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
I find this total to be short. Iowa was the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation during the regular season. The Hawkeyes have been even better during the Big Ten Conference Tournament averaging 92 points in games against Northwestern, Rutgers and Indiana. Iowa is shooting 51 percent from the floor during the tournament and 48 percent from 3-point range. Keegan Murray is living up to his superstar billing averaging 28 points in the tourney. Purdue was the seventh-highest scoring team during the regular season averaging 80.7 points. The Boilermakers ranked third in the nation in both field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. They are stepping down in defensive class going against Iowa after having faced Michigan State and Penn State. The Hawkeyes have surrendered an average of 75.2 points in their last four games. | |||||||
03-13-22 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 224.5 | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
An early start and no Kyrie Irving make the Under an attractive play here. The Nets are averaging 103.2 points in their last four home games, all of which came without Irving. The Knicks' defense is down this season, but it still ranks in the top 10. The teams have met twice this season and both games went Under this total with the latest being the Nets' 111-106 road win against the Knicks on Feb. 16. | |||||||
03-12-22 | Raptors v. Nuggets -5.5 | 127-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Bad timing here for the Raptors. Toronto just upset the Suns, 117-112, on the road last night. Now the Raptors go into high altitude to face the Nuggets with no rest. The Raptors have a poor recent history versus the Nuggets on the road failing to cover during their last six visits to Denver. Toronto also will be without OG Anunoby, who averages 17.5 points. He's out with a finger injury. Denver has been playing well going 12-3 in its last 15 games. The Nuggets, though, are off a 113-102 loss to the Warriors this past Thursday. So they should be ready for this matchup. | |||||||
03-12-22 | UCLA v. Arizona -120 | Top | 76-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
Regular season Pac-12 champion and No. 2 ranked Arizona committed 17 turnovers against Colorado on Friday. The Buffaloes were sizzling from 3-point range hitting 16 of their 32 shots from beyond the arc for 50 percent. Yet not only did Arizona win, but the Wildcats also covered the spread in an 82-72 victory. I have to believe the Wildcats will play a cleaner and much better game against UCLA. The Bruins are off a highly satisfying and emotional Pac-12 semifinal victory against USC last night. The Bruins are searching for their first Pac-12 tournament title in eight years. I respect UCLA's defense. But I favor Arizona's scoring more. Only two teams score more than Arizona's 84.7 points per game. | |||||||
03-12-22 | Pacers +5.5 v. Spurs | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Can you say letdown? That's what the Spurs have to avoid after they upset the Jazz at home last night, 104-102. As an added bonus, the victory gave Gregg Popovich the most regular season coaching wins in NBA history. All in all, a tremendous night in San Antonio basketball history. The Spurs accomplished the victory by rallying from 15 points down in the fourth quarter. However, now San Antonio draws a rested Pacers team that is desperate for a victory having lost three in a row. The Pacers blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead in a 127-124 home loss to the Cavaliers this past Tuesday. They've had three full days to stew about that defeat and be ready for this matchup. The Pacers have some underrated young talent. That talent level is raised with the return of Chris Durate. Indiana has covered during its last five visits to San Antonio. The Spurs are just 3-11 ATS following a point spread cover. | |||||||
03-12-22 | Monmouth +3 v. St. Peter's | 54-60 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 59 m | Show | |
I understand the oddsmaker making St. Peter's the favorite against Monmouth in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament title game. The Peacocks won both regular-season meetings, although the games were close. St. Peter's combined winning margin in the two games was 10 points. But I consider these two teams even. Monmouth has more victories with a season record of 21-12 compared to St. Peter's 18-11. Points are going to be hard to come by in this matchup played in spacious Boardwalk Hall. The Hawks have covered the past seven times they've been underdogs and are 11-3 ATS the last 14 times going against above .500 teams. | |||||||
03-11-22 | Wizards +4.5 v. Lakers | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
Simply put, the Lakers can't be laying a mid-range number like this. LA is 2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games. The Lakers have been favored four times during this span - and lost each game straight-up. Even LeBron James admitted the Lakers, ''...don't have a lot of room for error.'' The retooled Wizards, with newcomer Kristaps Porzingis upgrading their frontcourt, have been a competitive 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS record in their last seven games. One of those point spread losses occurring in double overtime to the Spurs. | |||||||
03-11-22 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Long Beach State +4.5 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
These have been two hot, play-on teams. At this point spread range, though, I have to get involved and back Long Beach State. All the Beach have done is go 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games. They've won eight of their last 10 games and are 20-7 ATS the past 27 times when getting points. Santa Barbara is the No. 5 seed in this Big West Tournament. Long Beach State is the No. 1 seed. | |||||||
03-11-22 | Coppin State v. North Carolina Central -115 | 79-73 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
I turn to the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament to find a perplexing line on this matchup between North Central and Coppin State. North Central is the clear better team. But the line doesn't show that. The Eagles are 16-14. They beat Coppin State, 77-74, in mid-February. Coppin State is 8-22. Coppin State ranks 281st in scoring, averaging five points fewer per game than North Central. | |||||||
03-11-22 | Mavs -10.5 v. Rockets | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
I want the Mavericks in this spot and am willing to lay double-digits to back them here. Dallas had its five-game win streak come to a rough end with a 107-77 loss at home to the Knicks two days ago. The Rockets, on the other hand, are off a highly-satisfying 139-130 overtime home win against the Lakers from Wednesday. The Mavericks are 23-9 ATS following a defeat. They are 2-0 versus the Rockets this season and 4-1 ATS during their past five visits to Houston. The Rockets not only have the second-worst record in the NBA, but they also have a terrible point spread mark just 11-27 the past 38 times as an underdog. | |||||||
03-11-22 | Pistons +14 v. Celtics | Top | 103-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Boston playing well. But so is Detroit except the Pistons don't get nearly the attention the Celtics do. The Celtics are looking for their sixth consecutive victory. The Pistons are looking for their 10th straight point spread cover. Cade Cunningham is making a spirited bid to earn Rookie of the Year honors scoring 20 or more points in his last five games. The Pistons upset the Celtics, 112-111, at Boston on Feb. 16 as 12-point 'dogs. Now the line is even higher. That was the seventh straight time Detroit has covered against Boston. The Celtics host the Mavericks on Sunday in a much more challenging game. So a Boston letdown/look ahead situation could exist. Even if the Celtics take this matchup seriously, the Pistons are playing well enough and the line is inflated enough to back Detroit. | |||||||
03-11-22 | Miami-FL +9 v. Duke | Top | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
A case of food poisoning and lack of defense makes Duke an unattractive favorite. The Blue Devils lost at home to North Carolina in their final regular season game and were unimpressive in an 88-79 ACC Tournament quarterfinal win against undermanned Syracuse yesterday. This is what Duke coach Mike Kryzewski said following the Syracuse game: ''We're not playing very good defense right now. We did not against North Carolina and we did not in this game. We're missing a lot of assignments. Kryzewski also said some Duke players were dealing with food poisoning. Miami is 9-3 ATS as an underdog this season, including upsetting Duke, 76-74, on the road in January. | |||||||
03-11-22 | Iowa -6.5 v. Rutgers | 84-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Iowa is peaking at the right time. The Hawkeyes have won and covered six of their last seven games with the only blemish being a two-point road loss to Illinois. Iowa just blew out Northwestern, 112-76, on Thursday. The Hawkeyes entered the Big Ten Conference Tournament as the fifth-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 83.3 points. That's 16 points more per game than Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights average 67 points. That average shrinks to 62 if you count just their last four games. This is a big revenge spot for Iowa. The Scarlet Knights held them to a season-low when they beat Iowa, 48-46, at home on Jan. 19. | |||||||
03-10-22 | Utah State v. Colorado State -120 | Top | 51-53 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
This has been a down year for Utah State. I don't see the Aggies pulling off an upset against Colorado State in this Mountain West Conference Tournament game. Utah State blew out a bad Air Force team on Wednesday to open tournament play. Prior to that, however, the Aggies had dropped five of their last seven regular season games. This is in direct contrast to Colorado State, which enters the tournament having won eight of its last nine games. The Rams' last three games were victories against Boise State, which finished one game ahead of Colorado State to capture the regular season title, Utah State by 11 points on the road and Wyoming, the fourth-place team in the conference. Earlier this season, the Rams defeated the Aggies by five points. The Rams are led by David Roddy, who was named the Mountain West Player of the Year. | |||||||
03-10-22 | Nets v. 76ers -4 | 129-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Joel Embiid and James Harden trump Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. That's especially so in this emotional home game for the 76ers. Philadelphia is 5-0 in games Harden and Embiid have played together. The 76ers have won four of those five games by 15 or more points with the latest being a 121-106 home victory against the Bulls this past Monday. Harden opens up the 76ers' offense. Embiid is now the favorite to win MVP honors with Harden on board. Brooklyn hasn't been playing well with six losses in its last eight games. Perhaps the Nets will get it together and make a move with Durant back. But it hasn't happened yet. Right now the 76ers are the clear superior team. So I find this point spread short. | |||||||
03-10-22 | Quinnipiac v. Siena UNDER 140.5 | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 57 m | Show | |
Quinnipiac hasn't reached 70 points in six of its last eight games. The Saints scored 71 and 72 during the two other games during this span. Siena is averaging 58 points in its last two games. Neither team is at peak efficiency with their offenses. The Saints are one of the slower paced teams in the country. Throw in the venue - Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City with its huge shooting background - and you have a strong Under. | |||||||
03-10-22 | South Carolina State +4 v. Morgan State | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
Power rating-wise I have these two Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference teams ranked close to even. If anything, a slight edge to South Carolina State. So seeing this point spread, I'm compelled to get involved with South Carolina State. The Bulldogs are 15-15, while Morgan State is 12-13. South Carolina State is 12-5-2 ATS when going against opponents with a losing record. | |||||||
03-09-22 | Thunder v. Wolves OVER 231.5 | Top | 102-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
I don't need much of an excuse to play Over in a Timberwolves game. The Over has cashed in 22 of Minnesota's last 28 games for 79 percent. The Timberwolves are the second-highest scoring team in the NBA and below average defensive. They play fast and like to jack up 3's. In other words, an excellent Over team. Minnesota has scored 124 or more points in each of its last five games. Oklahoma City is giving up an average of 124.4 points in its last nine games. The Thunder just permitted the Bucks to put up 142 points last night. So I have my excuse to play Over. | |||||||
03-09-22 | Delaware State +16.5 v. Norfolk State | 66-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
Norfolk State is the top team in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. Delaware State is the worst team. But I'm going to be on the Hornets because this line is too inflated. These teams just met in mid-February and Norfolk State won, 69-66. Delaware State hasn't lost by more than 13 points during its last 12 games. The Hornets have played a number of close games. They are 6-1 ATS the past seven times as underdogs. The Hornets nearly upset Maryland-Eastern Shore in their last game six days ago losing, 63-59, as 10-point 'dogs after trailing by only one point at halftime. | |||||||
03-09-22 | Butler v. Xavier UNDER 131 | 89-82 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
First note the venue: Madison Square Garden. That's been a huge Under arena for college basketball tournament games. Combine that with Butler and you're going to have a low-scoring matchup. The Bulldogs rank 336th in scoring at 63.1 points per game. They are one of the slowest-paced teams in the country ranking among the bottom-15 in tempo. The Bulldogs don't figure to get second-chance points either. Xavier led the Big East in defensive rebounding. Butler ranks in the top 100 defensively, though, and Xavier is a bad 3-point shooting team. The Musketeers have failed to score more than 66 points in three of their last five games. | |||||||
03-09-22 | Idaho +2 v. CS Sacramento | 54-57 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
Idaho outscored Sacramento State by nearly eight points a game during the season and will have a crowd advantage with this matchup being in Boise where the Big Sky Tournament is being held. The Vandals are the higher seed. The Vandals won one fewer game than Sacramento State, but have a much better point spread record at 17-10-1. The Hornets are 11-13-1 ATS. Idaho is at its point spread-best as a 'dog covering 19 of the past 28 times in that role. I make the Vandals the favorite in this game. So taking points is a bonus. | |||||||
03-08-22 | Bucks v. Thunder +14 | 142-115 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
The Bucks are due for a letdown after pulling out three narrow victories the past six days edging the Heat by one point at home, defeating the Bulls by six on the road and beating the Suns at home this past Sunday in a game that was much more intense and closer than the final score indicated. After this game, the Bucks go back home to meet the Hawks on Wednesday. So the backdoor should swing open for Oklahoma City if the Bucks were to build a big lead. The Thunder are capable of pulling upsets. Just three games ago they knocked off the Nuggets in Denver by 12 points as a 15 1/2-point 'dog. Oklahoma City has the second-best ATS mark in the NBA at 38-22-4 (63 percent). | |||||||
03-08-22 | Canisius v. Fairfield UNDER 134 | Top | 50-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 48 m | Show |
Don't expect much scoring in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament game. Not with Canisius and Fairfield matching up. Canisius is one of the worst shooting teams in the country ranking 337th. The Golden Griffins, though, haven't given up more than 67 points in four of their last five games. Fairfield has surrendered an average of only 59.3 points during its last three games. The Stags, however, managed just 41 points against St. Peter's during their last game. No team plays at a slower pace in the MAAC than Fairfield. Note, too, this game is at neutral site Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City. The MAAC has used this site for its postseason tournament since 2020 and the Under has cashed 73 percent of the time during the previous 15 games. It's not a fluke as the shooting background is tough because of the spacious gym and unfamiliar surroundings. | |||||||
03-08-22 | Nets -2.5 v. Hornets | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Now that Kevin Duran is back, I'm expecting the Nets to make a move. This is especially so when they are on the road when Kyrie Irving can play. The Hornets can't match that 1-2 superstar punch. The Nets have a winning road record. They have either covered or pushed in five of their last six away contests. The Hornets are a below .500 team that ranks 28th defensively. They are 2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. Brooklyn has covered during 10 of its last 13 visits to Charlotte. | |||||||
03-07-22 | Knicks v. Kings -3.5 | 131-115 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
Death, taxes and the Kings have a losing season. Sacramento is going to finish below .500 for the 16th consecutive season. However, look for the Kings to soundly beat the Knicks here as this spot sets up well for them. New York is playing its fourth road game in six days. The Knicks are fat and happy after a 116-93 victory against the Clippers last night that halted a seven-game losing streak. That win isn't likely to prevent Tom Thibodeau from getting fired. The Kings are more respectable since they acquired Domantas Sabonis and fired Luke Walton. They are 4-6 in their last 10 games. Sacramento would be 5-5 in its last 10 games if not for a late 3-pointer by Dorian Finney-Smith in a 114-113 loss two days ago to Dallas. The Kings should be placing a lot of emphasis on winning this game because after this matchup they meet the Nuggets, Jazz, Bulls, Bucks, Celtics and Suns. | |||||||
03-07-22 | Jazz +1.5 v. Mavs | 103-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
Except for the questionable status of Mike Conley, the Jazz are at full strength. That makes them a better team than the Mavericks. Dallas has won four in a row. But look at who those victories were against: The Kings by one point on a late 3-point basket. A victory against the 2-7 slumping Lakers and two victories against the slumping 2-8 Warriors. Before those victories the Mavericks lost, 114-109, as 6 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Jazz. Utah kept Luka Doncic in check while holding Dallas to just 42 points in the second half. Doncic missed the Mavericks last game with a toe injury. I expect him to play here, but it would be a nice bonus if he didn't. Underrated Dallas guard Jalen Brunson also is a game-time decision due to a foot injury. | |||||||
03-07-22 | Lakers v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
It's getting to the crucial stage for the Spurs. San Antonio is in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row while falling 3 1/2 games out of postseason contention. San Antonio has played nine of its last 10 games on the road, though. This is the first of seven straight home contests. They are 6-2-1 ATS the past nine times when favored. The Lakers are off a satisfying, 124-116, home win against the Warriors this past Saturday. LeBron James scored 56 points in that game. James is a freak of nature, but he is 37. How much will he have left for this game? Prior to defeating the Warriors, the Lakers had gone 1-7 SU, 2-5-1 ATS. The Spurs have a solid bench and rate a huge coaching edge with Gregg Popovich. | |||||||
03-07-22 | Furman v. Chattanooga -130 | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
I like the way Tennessee Chattanooga is playing down the stretch. The Mocs have won their last four games. They blew out Wofford in a semifinal matchup of this Southern Conference Tournament. The Mocs are the best team in this conference and I see them getting the job down here. The teams met twice during the regular season and the Mocs won both times, including defeating Furman by six points on the road on Feb. 12. | |||||||
03-06-22 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 229 | Top | 130-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
The Pelicans have been playing tremendous defensive basketball. They've held their last four opponents to an average of 95.5 points. Among the offenses they've shut down during this span are the Lakers, Jazz and Suns. Denver has been producing at a fairly high-scoring clip lately. But look at the Nuggets' last five foes - Rockets, Thunder, Blazers and Kings twice. Those are bad defenses. There's a chance the Nuggets won't have Nikola Jokic for a second straight game. He missed Denver's last game with a non-COVID illness. It's a nice bonus for the Under if he's out, but I'm not counting on that. The Pelicans are going for their fifth straight win, but won't be able to count on getting many 3-pointers. They rank 28th in 3-point accuracy. Denver is 12th defensively and No. 2 in 3-point defense. The Under is 9-1-1 in New Orleans' last 11 games. The Under has cashed the past six times these two teams have met in Denver. Expect another Under winner in today's matchup. | |||||||
03-06-22 | Albany +5 v. Hartford | Top | 49-61 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
Just because Hartford is playing in its home arena doesn't mean the Hawks should be favored against this opponent, let alone by this many points. Albany is 13-17. Hartford is 11-19. The teams split their two meetings this season. Albany beat the Hawks on the road, 71-52. Hartford got its revenge this past Tuesday defeating the Great Danes, 67-55. The Hawks shot 13 more free throws in that contest. They also made 13 of 24 3-pointers for 54 percent. Hartford shoots 37.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season. The Great Danes are 8-1-2 ATS in their past 11 away games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering six of the last seven. | |||||||
03-05-22 | UNLV v. New Mexico +4 | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
UNLV has come on strong, but the Rebels still failed to finish among the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference. This is UNLV's final regular season game and last matchup before the Mountain West Conference Tournament. It's a flat spot for the Rebels. Not so for New Mexico, which has revenge for a 29-point loss to the Rebels earlier in the season. The Lobos have a winning home record. The Rebels have a losing road mark. | |||||||
03-05-22 | Spurs +4 v. Hornets | 117-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
The Spurs are in the playoff hunt. The Hornets are a mediocre Eastern Conference team with a horrendous home record lately. Charlotte has lost nine of its last 10 home games. The Hornets are 1-9-1 ATS during their past 11 home contests. The Spurs are 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times when playing a below .500 opponent. San Antonio has revenge and stop-the-pain motivation with three straight losses. Charlotte is a bit fat and happy having pulled off a 119-98 road win against the Cavaliers this past Wednesday. Sparked by Gordon Hayward's 41 points, the Hornets embarrassed the Spurs, 131-115, at San Antonio on Dec. 15. Hayward is out and the Hornets' rotation is in transition. | |||||||
03-05-22 | UL - Lafayette +5.5 v. Texas State | 79-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Upset special here. Texas State enters the Sun Belt Conference Tournament as the No. 1 seed. But the Bobcats face danger. They haven't played since Feb. 25. Louisiana Lafayette is playing its best ball winning four of its last five games. This includes a 67-64 victory against Texas Arlington on Thursday in a first-round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game. The Ragin' Cajuns won't be rusty. They also won't have the pressure on them like the Bobcats will. The Bobcats aren't a big scoring team. They've produced fewer than 70 points in 10 of their last 12 games. | |||||||
03-04-22 | Western Carolina v. Mercer -5.5 | 53-81 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
I have Mercer power-rated high than this so I'm going to back the Bears in this first round matchup of the Southern Conference Tournament This game is at a neutral site. More reason not to like Western Carolina. The Catamounts are 3-13 in away/neutral site games. Mercer should face little resistance putting up points. Western Carolina has one of the worst defenses in the nation ranking 337th giving up 77.1 points per game. | |||||||
03-04-22 | Hawks v. Wizards +4.5 | 117-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
This is a key matchup for the Wizards, who trail the Hawks and Hornets by 1 1/2 games for the final playoff position in the East. The spot should work for the Wizards. They've beaten the Hawks eight of the past 11 times at home, including 122-111 on Oct. 28 the last time they hosted them. The Wizards have been idle since Tuesday. The Hawks are playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights. Atlanta is off an impressive, 130-124, victory against the Bulls. Atlanta remains without John Collins, its best big man and second-leading scorer. He's out with a foot injury. Washington is without Bradley Beal. So the Wizards kind of lack an identity. But Kyle Kuzma has emerged as an excellent player and steady presence averaging 17 points, 8.8 rebounds and 3.2 assists. | |||||||
03-04-22 | Richmond +4 v. St Bonaventure | Top | 65-72 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
Richmond defeated St. Bonaventure, 71-61, earlier this season. I see the Spiders repeating that performance in the rematch. Taking points is a nice bonus. St. Bonaventure began conference play slowly before rolling off seven straight wins. However, the Bonnies' streak was snapped in brutal fashion with a 74-51 road loss to VCU this past Tuesday. The Bonnies were minus Osun Osunniyi in that game due to an ankle injury and could be missing him again in this matchup. He averages 11 points and is the Bonnies' leading rebounder. Richmond is experienced, solid on both sides of the ball, ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate and hasn't lost two straight games since Dec. 30-Jan. 2. The Spiders also are road tested going 14-5-1 ATS during their past 20 away games, including 8-3 ATS in their past 11. St. Bonaventure is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times against opponents with a winning record. | |||||||
03-03-22 | Kings +7 v. Spurs | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
This has to feel weird for the Spurs. This is their first home game since Feb. 4. San Antonio has concluded its annual rodeo-related road trip. Now the Spurs are home where they are just 11-18 this season, including 2-5 ATS during their past seven games at AT&T Center. Neither team is playing well. The Kings are four games out of the final playoff spot. So any game against an average-type of opponent, such as the Spurs, is crucial to them. Sacramento doesn't lack for talent with Domantas Sabonis, De'Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes. The Kings are 11-7 ATS the past 18 times when the underrated Fox has been in their lineup. | |||||||
03-03-22 | Indiana State v. Illinois State UNDER 144.5 | 53-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is upon us. The games are played at Enterprise Center, which has a notorious shooting drop. This has made for a fantastic record on Unders - to the tune of 64 percent the past 103 times. The Missouri Valley is a conference known for defense and underrated coaching. This really comes out, too, during the conference tournament. Indiana State has been held to 66 or fewer points in two of its last three games. Illinois State has been held to 70 or fewer points in regulation during nine of its last 10 games. | |||||||
03-02-22 | Thunder +14.5 v. Nuggets | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
There are two ways of looking at Oklahoma City. One is the conventional way where the Thunder have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. The second way is the point spread route where lo and behold the Thunder have the second-best ATS mark in the NBA. The Thunder have been at their point spread finest as a road 'dog and off a lopsided loss. Oklahoma City was just embarrassed by the Kings in a 21-point home loss. The Thunder are 8-2 ATS following a double-digit defeat. The Thunder also are 21-7 ATS the past 28 times they are a road 'dog. Denver is fat and happy, winners of six in a row, including a blowout road win against the Trail Blazers in its last game. Twice since mid-January have the Nuggets been favored by 10 or more points. They are 0-2 ATS in those games. Denver also has failed to cover in seven of its past nine home contests. | |||||||
03-02-22 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 226 | 119-120 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The Heat just held the high-scoring Bulls to 99 points in their last game. No aberration there. Miami is an elite defensive team. That defense is even better with Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and PJ Tucker all healthy. These are premier, versatile defenders. The Bucks catch a break in that Miami will be missing point guard Kyle Lowry. This has become an intense rivalry the past few years. There won't be any secrets either as this is the fourth time the teams are meeting this season. | |||||||
03-02-22 | Presbyterian v. Campbell -2.5 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
Campbell is the better team. Power rating-wise, I have the Fighting Camels as a mid-size favorite at a neutral site in this Big South Tournament matchup. Presbyterian is 12-19. Campbell is 15-12. The Fighting Camels have a far superior defense giving up fewer than 62 points per game. They rank 22nd in the nation defensively. Presbyterian is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. | |||||||
03-01-22 | Warriors +1 v. Wolves | Top | 114-129 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Minnesota is much improved this season. That's evident by the oddsmaker opening this game in the pick range. But I really want Golden State in this situation. The Warriors are coming off a frustrating, 107-101, home loss to the Mavericks from Sunday. Golden State let a 21-point lead slip in that game. Needless to say, Steve Kerr was not happy. The Timberwolves are off a satisfying, 127-122, road win against the Cavaliers last night. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. | |||||||
03-01-22 | Eastern Kentucky +4.5 v. Kennesaw State | 73-82 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
I rate these two teams as even. So this is a generous point spread. The teams met four weeks ago. Eastern Kentucky was a 3 1/2-point home favorite and prevailed, 82-81, in triple overtime. Kennesaw State is 12-17. Eastern Kentucky is 13-17. It's not like Kennesaw State is something special at home. The Owls have failed to cover during their past six home games. | |||||||
03-01-22 | Green Bay v. Detroit -9.5 | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker knows how bad Green Bay is. But he might be a little behind the curve recognizing the improvement with Detroit Mercy. The Titans have won and covered three of their last four games beating Northern Kentucky, Wright State and Cleveland State during this time span. Those are three of the top four teams in the Horizon League. Green Bay is 5-24. The Phoenix play their worst on the road, too, going 1-12. They are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. Detroit is 8-1 at home. Detroit won't be showing any mercy as Green Bay beat the Titans, 70-63, at home in the first meeting. Detroit's star player, Antoine Davis, had a rare terrible shooting game in that loss. The Titans are 18-7-1 ATS the past 26 times versus sub .500 foes. | |||||||
03-01-22 | Nebraska v. Ohio State -14.5 | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
This is a kill spot for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are looking for redemption after getting upset this past Sunday at Maryland. Ohio State still has much to play for trying to secure a top-four seed into the Big Ten Tournament and the bye into the quarterfinals that goes with it. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including 8-1 in the Big Ten. They also are 8-2 ATS following a point spread loss. Nebraska has been bad again this season going 8-21 with a 2-16 Big Ten record. The Cornhuskers, though, are in a rare flat spot having stunned Penn State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog, 93-70, this past Sunday. | |||||||
02-28-22 | San Diego State v. Wyoming +2 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
San Diego State has the No. 2 defense in the country. I have great respect for the Aztecs. But I'm not buying Wyoming as a home underdog. The Cowboys have won all 14 of their home games this season. They have the two best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points per game than San Diego State and also has a respectable defense giving up 65.6 points, which ranks 74th, and is 24th in 3-point defense. Wyoming is 23-5 overall and 12-3 in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is 18-7 overall and 10-4 in the Mountain West. The Cowboys are proven, too, against good competition going 22-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record. | |||||||
02-28-22 | Raptors -4 v. Nets | 133-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Toronto is off two ugly losses to the Hornets and Hawks. The Raptors haven't lost three in a row since late November. The Nets return home after a huge 126-123 road win against the Bucks two days ago with Kyrie Irving scoring a season-high 38 points in that victory. I have to believe the Raptors are going to up for this game while the Nets come home fat and happy. Irving won't play because of local mandates against unvaccinated players being unvaccinated. The Nets have been below par at home all season with a 13-16 record. Toronto has a winning road mark. | |||||||
02-27-22 | Pelicans v. Lakers -130 | Top | 123-95 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
The Lakers, especially LeBron James, are angry after losing a controversial, 105-102, game to the Clippers this past Friday. The Lakers are angry about how their season is going so far. I want an angry James going for me at home against New Orleans. The Pelicans are an up-and-coming team, but they enter this matchup fat-and-happy after ending the Suns' eight-game win streak with a 117-102 upset win this past Friday. The Lakers are 8-2 ATS following a loss. The Pelicans are 0-4-1 ATS the last five times playing the Lakers in LA. | |||||||
02-27-22 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 226 | 118-114 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
The Jazz are a much stronger defensive club with Rudy Gobbert back in the lineup. He's the top defensive center in the NBA. Gobbert has missed many games this season so Utah's defensive numbers are misleading. Utah plays at an extremely slow pace with Gobbert on the court. The Suns rank sixth in scoring defense. They are No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage and first in 3-point defense. Phoenix's intensity should be way up after an embarrassing 15-point loss to the Pelicans two days ago. Keep in mind, too, the Suns are minus injured Chris Paul. This puts a lot of pressure on Devin Booker to distribute the ball and he's not a point guard. | |||||||
02-27-22 | Illinois v. Michigan | 93-85 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
Illinois is the better team. Says who? Respected rankings and statistics. The Illini are ranked 15th in the BPI ratings and 16th according to KenPom ratings. Illinois is 20th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Michigan ranks 27th in the BPI ratings and 30th in the KenPom rankings. The Wolverines are 24th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 68th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Illinois has the best player on the court if not the entire Big Ten Conference in center Kofi Cockburn, who averages 21.2 points and 10.8 rebounds per game. Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games against opponents with a winning road record. | |||||||
02-26-22 | Kings +8 v. Nuggets | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
The Kings have upgraded their depth and have motivation for this matchup after losing, 128-110, at home to the Nuggets two days ago. Denver is 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games. Sacramento played Denver tough last season winning all three games. The Kings have better coaching with Alvin Gentry replacing Luke Walton. They also have a better rotation after being very active at the trade deadline. The key for the Kings is Domantas Sabonis, who is not outclassed by Nikola Jokic. The new Kings players are getting more acclimated and morale is up in Sacramento. So I'm expecting a competitive effort from the Kings. The Nuggets have to be careful about their rotation since they are in action at Portland on Sunday. | |||||||
02-26-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Houston Baptist OVER 144 | 75-70 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Tempo is the key here. Texas A&M Corpus Christi plays at the second-fastest pace in the Southland Conference. Houston Baptist ranks 312th defensively giving up an average of 74.5 points per game. The Islanders have gone Over the total in 21 of their last 28 road games. The Huskies are pushing pace, too. They've had each of their last six games hit 145 points or more on the combined score. Houston Baptist is averaging 82 points in its last six games. The Huskies have gone Over in seven of their last nine home games. | |||||||
02-26-22 | Arizona v. Colorado +10.5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
Barring winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament, Colorado won't be going to the NCAA Tournament. So this revenge spot is the Buffaloes' game of the year. The Wildcats have a bigger game on deck playing at USC. Colorado has been playing well with five victories in its last six games. This is the Buffaloes' final home game of the season so it's senior night. This has been a home team series with the host covering six of the last seven times. | |||||||
02-26-22 | Louisiana Tech +5 v. North Texas | 49-56 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
North Texas has won 13 in a row. A fact the oddsmaker is well aware of. So there is line inflation with the Mean Green. Louisiana Tech has won four of its last five games. The Bulldogs were favored in the first meeting this season between these teams and should have won the game. They blew a 17-point second-half lead and lost, 63-62. So there is strong revenge motivation. The Bulldogs might have the Conference USA Player of the Year in big man Kenneth Lofton Jr., who averages 16.7 points and 10.7 rebounds. North Texas likes to pound inside. That's a big part of the Mean Green offense. Lofton, a huge wide body at 275 pounds, can make that difficult. Discounting a 63-60 loss to UTEP, the Bulldogs are averaging 86.5 points in their last four games. Louisiana Tech has been strong on the road covering 16 of its last 22 away contests. | |||||||
02-26-22 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas UNDER 128.5 | 49-56 | Win | 100 | 16 h 34 m | Show | |
No team plays at a slower pace than North Texas. So it's not a fluke the Under has cashed in 16 of the Mean Green's last 23 games. North Texas is patient looking to work inside. Louisiana Tech has a defensive stopper in big man Kenneth Loften Jr. There were 125 points scored in the first meeting, which was won by North Texas, 63-62. Only once has the number of points exceeded 125 points during North Texas' last 11 games. Louisiana Tech has scored 82 or more points in four of its last five games. However, the Bulldogs haven't faced a defense near the caliber of North Texas. The Mean Green give up the fewest points in the nation at 55.6. They rank third in defensive rebounding and fifth in 3-point defense. | |||||||
02-26-22 | Seton Hall +3.5 v. Xavier | 82-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
Xavier is in a slump. Seton Hall has stepped up its game. I see the wrong team being favored here. The Musketeers may not be fully recovered from their triple overtime loss to Providence this past Wednesday night. That loss was Xavier's fifth in its last six games. The Musketeers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. Seton Hall has won five of its past seven games. The Pirates' only two losses during this stretch occurred on the road to Connecticut and Villanova. Seton Hall covered both of those games. The Pirates are 4-0 ATS in their last four away games. | |||||||
02-25-22 | San Jose State +22.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
San Diego State is in fourth place in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs just lost to first-place Boise State by one point this past Tuesday. The Aztecs have second-place Wyoming on deck following this opponent - San Jose State. San Jose State is last in the conference. So San Diego State can't be blamed if they take the Spartans for granted while in the middle of a conference sandwich. The Aztecs haven't been good lately in this role. They've been favored by 14 points or more three times in their past six games. They are 0-3 ATS in those games. The Aztecs' 0-3 ATS mark laying big points isn't a fluke. San Diego State plays great defense, but only averages 65.1 points a game. That ranks 306th. San Jose State hung in during the first meeting between the two teams losing, 72-62, on Feb. 9 as a 17-point home 'dog. The Spartans should be loose and confident having upset New Mexico, 71-55, as a 5 1/2-point home 'dog during their previous game. That snapped a 14-game losing streak. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and have covered in five of their past six road contests. | |||||||
02-25-22 | 76ers -2.5 v. Wolves | 133-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
I trust the 76ers more on the road than at home. Philly is a top away club with a 19-10 road record. The 76ers have covered seven of their past nine away games. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS the past six times as a 'dog. The Timberwolves are 1-6 ATS the last seven times hosting the 76ers, too. Philly is sure to have plenty of energy coming off the long All-Star break. James Harden is expected to make his 76ers debut. That's sure to pump up the 76ers, too. | |||||||
02-25-22 | Heat -5 v. Knicks | 115-100 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Clearly a tale of two teams here. The Heat have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference at 38-21. They come out of All-Star break 6-1. Their big three of Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo and Kyle Lowry are once again healthy. The Knicks have lost 33 of their last 53 games, losers of seven of their last eight games. Kemba Walker is out for the season and morale is low. Tom Thibodeau may be out as head coach. So I'm going to ride the Heat here. | |||||||
02-24-22 | USC -10 v. Oregon State | 94-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Talk about train wrecks. That's Oregon State. The Beavers have gone from Elite Eight of last season to 3-22 this season. They've lost 12 in a row with 10 of the past 11 defeats occurring by double-digits. They are a team that can't even be trusted to put forth a full effort. They have yet to post a victory in 2022. Making things worse for the Beavers is a number of their players are hurt. The Trojans, on the other hand, are healthy and strong on the road covering seven of their last nine away contests. | |||||||
02-24-22 | UC-Santa Barbara v. UC-Davis +2.5 | 76-69 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
UC Davis has had several cancellations this season. The Aggies have played just 18 games going 11-7. However, the Aggies are beginning to make a move having won three in a row. UC Santa Barbara is a fade on the road. The Gauchos have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 away matchups. I don't see the Aggies having a problem handling the Gauchos at home. Getting points is a nice bonus. | |||||||
02-24-22 | Idaho State v. Northern Arizona -3.5 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
Northern Arizona isn't very good at 9-18. But 6-20 Idaho State is downright terrible. I find this a short number to lay with the Lumberjacks at home. Idaho State ranks 326th in scoring at 64.2 points a game. The Bengals are just as bad defensively ranking 340th in defensive field goal percentage. The Lumberjacks have covered six of their last eight games. | |||||||
02-23-22 | Houston v. Tulane +9.5 | 81-67 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 17 m | Show | |
After a slow start, Tulane has come on to cover 11 of its last 14 games. The Green Wave draw Houston at home after the Cougars just scored a 76-74 double overtime road win against Wichita State this past Sunday. The Cougars' next game is a home revenge matchup against SMU. So it's not a great spot for the Cougars. Tulane, meanwhile, hasn't played in eight days. So the Green Wave should be rested and ready. They average barely two points fewer per game than the 14th-ranked Cougars. | |||||||
02-23-22 | Chattanooga -3 v. East Tennessee State | Top | 83-77 | Win | 100 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
Chattanooga rolled past East Tennessee State, 82-52, as a 7 1/2-point home favorite on Dec. 31. The Mocs may not win by 30 points again, but they still should easily win this game. Chattanooga is the top team in the Southern Conference with a 22-7 overall record and 12-4 league mark. East Tennessee State ranks eighth out of 10 teams in the Southern Conference with a 6-10 league mark. The Buccaneers are under .500 on the season overall. The Mocs are 21-5-1 ATS the past 27 times playing a below .500 opponent. They also have covered 67 percent of their last 55 road games. The Mocs are 5-1 in their last six road contests. Chattanooga clearly is superior to the Buccaneers outscoring them per game while giving up an average of eight fewer points a game. The Buccaneers have revenge and senior night playing in their final home game of the season. But Chattanooga isn't going to lack motivation. The Mocs are on a rare two-game losing skid falling twice at home as big favorites during their past two games. They haven't lost three in a row all season. Chattanooga is 20-7-1 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game. East Tennessee State defeated The Citadel in its last game. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread six of the past seven times following a victory. | |||||||
02-22-22 | Villanova +2.5 v. Connecticut | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
Villanova nearly got caught peeking ahead to this game before dispatching Georgetown, 74-66, at home this past Saturday. Look for the Wildcats to be far more focused against UConn. I consider Villanova to be the superior team. The Wildcats are 21-6 and 14-3 in the Big East. UConn is 19-7 and 10-5 in the Big East. The teams met at Villanova on Feb. 5 and the Wildcats won, 85-74. I see a similar scenario for Villanova so catching points is an added bonus. | |||||||
02-22-22 | Miami-FL -3.5 v. Pittsburgh | 85-64 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
This line came much lower than I expected given the class difference between these two teams. Miami is 19-8 and tied for third in the ACC with an 11-5 conference mark. The Hurricanes currently are ranked 65th in the NET rankings. They are firmly in the mix for an NCAA Tournament bid. The Hurricanes shouldn't lack for motivation after letting a 10-point second-half lead slip in a 74-71 home loss to Virginia this past Saturday. Pittsburgh is ranked 169th in the NET rankings. The Panthers average 12 points fewer per game than the Hurricanes. Pittsburgh ranks 341st in scoring at 62.5 points per game. The Panthers are not going to the Big Dance with an 11-17 record and 6-11 ACC mark. | |||||||
02-22-22 | Michigan State +7 v. Iowa | Top | 60-86 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
I'll willingly accept this many points with a desperate Michigan State and Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 1-4 in their last five games. They are 8-3 ATS following a loss. Iowa, in contrast to Michigan State, has won four of its last five. The Hawkeyes are averaging 90.5 points in their last five games. This has contributed to an inflated line, though. Points and possessions matter in the rugged Big Ten. The Spartans haven't been an underdog of more than three points in any of their 15 Big Ten games. The Hawkeyes aren't that much better than the Spartans - if they are even better at all. | |||||||
02-21-22 | Penn State v. Maryland -2.5 | Top | 61-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
I don't trust Penn State's weak offense, nor do I trust the Nittany Lions on the road. Penn State ranks 306th in scoring. Maryland averages five more points per game than the Nittany Lions. The Terrapins hold a backcourt edge with Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell, both of whom average more points than any player on Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 1-6 in their Big Ten Conference road games. They have lost their last five away Big Ten matchups. Maryland has looked good recently. The Terrapins nearly upset Purdue on the road two games ago falling by one point. Maryland then buried Nebraska, 90-74, in its last game hitting 52 percent from the floor while turning the ball over just four times. The Terrapins have proven themselves at home knocking off Illinois there and losing to Wisconsin by only one point. | |||||||
02-20-22 | Marquette v. Creighton -112 | 82-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Creighton is coming on winning four in a row. Marquette is falling back, winning one of its last three with that victory occurring against weak Georgetown. Look for the Blue Jays to continue their momentum with a victory. | |||||||
02-20-22 | NJIT -2 v. Maine | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
There's a class difference here not reflected in the number. Maine has only two Division I wins. New Jersey Tech has taken care of teams that have easily defeated Maine. The Highlanders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Maine also has had some internal problems that came to a boil this past week with its head coach being replaced. The Black Bears aren't even going to qualify for the league playoffs so motivation could be an issue even with a coaching change. | |||||||
02-20-22 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -2.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Can the Wolverines win road games against Iowa and Wisconsin in a span of four days? I say no. Michigan upset the Hawkeyes this past Thursday, 84-79. Now, though, the Wolverines draw the 15th-ranked Badgers also on the road. Wisconsin gives up the fewest turnovers in the nation at 8.6. The Badgers' traditionally strong defense is coming on, too, giving up an average of 63.2 points during the last four games. Michigan has faced five ranked teams this season - and lost four of those five games. | |||||||
02-19-22 | Long Beach State v. UC-Santa Barbara UNDER 139.5 | 71-84 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
There were a combined 123 points scored in the first meeting between these two teams with Long Beach State winning, 65-58. Don't expect many points to be scored either in this second go-around. Long Beach State has surrendered fewer than 70 points during its last 11 games. The Beach have held their last seven foes under 67 points. They easily rank No. 1 in the Big West in defensive efficiency. Santa Barbara gives up just 64.5 points. The Gauchos haven't permitted more than 67 points during their last seven games. They play at an extremely slow pace, which is great for the Under. | |||||||
02-19-22 | DePaul +9 v. Seton Hall | Top | 64-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
This point spread is way out of whack. DePaul beat Seton Hall the first time these teams met. The Blue Demons have a better point spread record covering 58 percent, shoot the ball better than Seton Hall and have the best player on the court in Javon Freeman-Liberty. Seton Hall ranks 257th in field goal percentage. The Pirates are 4-4 since losing their second-leading scorer, Bruce Aiken. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. DePaul upset Xavier as a 14-point 'dog and lost by three points to Providence in overtime as a nine-point 'dog in its last two road games. Freeman-Liberty is one of the better players in the Big East Conference averaging 20.5 points. The Blue Demons defeated the Pirates, 96-92, on Jan. 13 as a 6 1/2-point 'dog. The Blue Demons certainly are capable of hanging around if not pulling another straight-up upset win. | |||||||
02-19-22 | Tennessee Tech v. Austin Peay | 73-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
These are a pair of middle-of-the-road Ohio Valley Conference teams. But Austin Peay is a step above Tennessee Tech. Tennessee Tech is 3-7 in its last 10 games with two of those victories occurring versus Eastern Illinois, which is in last place in the Ohio Valley and is the third-lowest scoring team in the nation. Austin Peay can't beat Murray State, Morehead State and Belmont. But the Governors can take out all the other Ohio Valley teams especially at home. That includes Tennessee Tech. Austin Peay defeated the Golden Eagles, 58-55, on the road when the teams met on Jan. 29. The Governors now get the rematch at home where they have won four of their last five. | |||||||
02-18-22 | Maryland -130 v. Nebraska | 90-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
Maryland is better than Nebraska. The oddsmaker knows that opening the Terrapins a road favorite. Still, this line is short because the Terrapins have lost five straight. Those defeats, though, came to Indiana, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa and Purdue in their last game this past Sunday. Maryland led Purdue by 12 points with 11 minutes left before losing, 62-61. Nebraska is 7-18 with its only victory during the past five games occurring against sagging Minnesota. Maryland has four more victories and four fewer losses than the Cornhuskers. The Cornhuskers can't match Maryland's strong backcourt duo of Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell. | |||||||
02-18-22 | Wright State v. Oakland -3.5 | 78-74 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
I don't see Wright State slowing down Oakland with the Golden Grizzlies playing at home. Wright State ranks 256th in scoring defense and 268th in defensive field goal percentage. Oakland ranks 66th in the nation in points averaging 75.9. The Golden Grizzlies average 87,5 points at home. Wright State just surrendered 75 points at home to Northern Kentucky in its last game, that's four points more than Northern Kentucky averages on the season. Oakland is 15-3 ATS the past 18 times as a home favorite. Wright State is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games. | |||||||
02-18-22 | Ohio +1.5 v. Kent State | Top | 52-75 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
Kent State is an upper level Mid-American Conference team. But Ohio leads the MAC and is better than the Golden Flashes. So I'm not buying Kent State opening as the favorite. The Bobcats are 22-4, including 8-3 on the road. They have a better road mark than Kent State's home record. The Golden Flashes are 16-9, 8-4 at home. Ohio took care of Kent State, 80-72, back on Jan. 7. Bobcats star Mark Sears had a big game with 28 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the floor while grabbing six rebounds and dishing off three assists. Sears averages 20.1 points, which ranks in the top 20 in the country. He's a tremendous shooter. Ohio ranks 15th in the country in turnover margin and first in the MAC at plus 4.23. Kent State can't match Sears, nor Ohio's ball protection. Ohio is ranked 87th in the latest NET rankings. Kent State is ranked 140th. | |||||||
02-17-22 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
After suffering their worst loss in seven years losing by 48 points to the Celtics this past Tuesday, I see the 76ers coming out super intense against Milwaukee. The 76ers have been strong on the road going 18-10. They are 10-2 ATS following a loss. Philadelphia also has covered its past five away games. Milwaukee has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times it has been a home favorite. The Bucks have Giannis Antetokounmpo back. But the Bucks still are playing short-handed with several rotation players out, including Pat Connaughton, Wesley Matthews and Grayson Allen questionable. | |||||||
02-17-22 | UMKC -4 v. North Dakota | 80-65 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
There's a class difference here not fully reflected in this point spread. UMKC is 16-10. North Dakota is 6-21. Kansas City should be motivated despite the Fighting Hawks' poor record. The Roos had their four-game win streak snapped this past Saturday by Oral Roberts after blowing a 10-point halftime lead. The Roos surrender 12 fewer points per game than North Dakota. They also shoot much better from the floor. UMKC has covered five of its last six road contests. | |||||||
02-17-22 | Delaware v. Elon +3.5 | 71-62 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
I can envision Elon pulling the outright upset here. The teams met on Jan. 22 in Delaware. The Blue Hens won, 80-77. Delaware shot 52 percent from the floor and had 11 more free throw opportunities than Elon. Yet the Blue Hens still just won by three points at home. Delaware last played a road game back on Jan. 29. | |||||||
02-16-22 | UNLV v. Fresno State -6 | Top | 60-57 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
I don't see another Fresno State loss happening here with the Bulldogs home to the Rebels, who are 3-8 ATS during their past 11 road contests. Fresno State has covered nine of its last 11 home games. UNLV has been hot from beyond the arc lately. Don't look for that to continue, though, against a Fresno State defense that ranks fifth in the nation allowing only 57.9 points. The Bulldogs shoot better from the floor than the Rebels and also are the superior free throw shooting team. Fresno State beat UNLV, 73-68, at UNLV on Jan. 14. That was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings the Bulldogs have defeated the Rebels. | |||||||
02-16-22 | Raptors -119 v. Wolves | Top | 103-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Toronto has dropped two in a row following an embarrassing, 120-90, road loss to the Pelicans this past Monday. I'm seeing a motivated Raptors team getting back on track taking advantage of a good situational spot here. Previous to losing two straight, the Raptors had won and covered eight in a row playing their finest ball. The Timberwolves are in action for the sixth time in nine days and third time in four days. Minnesota also is playing without rest. The Timberwolves exerted a lot of energy in rallying from a 10-point fourth quarter deficit to defeat the Hornets in overtime last night. Minnesota had four players log more than 37 minutes in that game. Karl-Anthony Towns played nearly 42 minutes. | |||||||
02-15-22 | Grizzlies -4.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 121-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
The Grizzlies are playing the best basketball of any team winning and covering eight of their last nine games. All of their victories during this span have come by at least seven points. Memphis has had two full days to prepare for this revenge matchup having last played on Saturday. The Pelicans won the first meeting, 112-101, at home on Nov. 13. It's going to be difficult for the inconsistent Pelicans to duplicate their ''A'' performance of last night when they buried the Raptors, 120-90, at home shooting a season-best 58.4 percent from the floor. New Orleans is 2-5 ATS the past seven times as a home 'dog. Memphis is 14-3 ATS the past 17 times when favored. | |||||||
02-15-22 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 210 | 135-87 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Slow tempo and great defense. That's a winning Under combination and should work for this long-standing division rivalry matchup. Boston is first in defensive efficiency during its last 10 games. The Celtics have held 6 of their last 8 opponents under 98 points. The 76ers also have been in the top five in defensive efficiency during the last 10 games. Their offense is in transition and James Harden is out. Only two teams play at a slower tempo than the 76ers. | |||||||
02-15-22 | Merrimack v. Sacred Heart -115 | 70-63 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Not many people are going to care about this battle of mediocre Northeast Conference teams. But I think there's value in backing Sacred Heart at home in this price range. Merrimack is playing its sixth straight game at a different venue. The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games. The Warriors average 57 points, second-worst in the country. They are terrible shooting team from both the field and free throw line. Sacred Heart averages 10 points more per game than Merrimack. The Pioneers shoot much better than the Warriors. Their defense won't be so exposed playing at home against such a weak offense. | |||||||
02-14-22 | Raptors v. Pelicans UNDER 222.5 | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
The Raptors are a top 10 defensive team. They should have their intensity for this matchup after their eight-game win streak was snapped by the Nuggets, 110-109, two days ago. Toronto has surrendered fewer than 102 points in three of its last four road games. The Pelicans are better defensively than perceived ranking 16th. They have allowed 107 or fewer points in six of their last eight games. The teams met last month in Toronto and the Raptors won, 105-101, for a combined total of 206 points. | |||||||
02-14-22 | Southern Utah v. Northern Colorado -115 | Top | 95-100 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
Southern Utah has the better record, but I find Northern Colorado to be the superior team. The Bears defeated the Thunderbirds, 91-81, on the road early last month. After playing just three times from Jan. 8 to Jan. 31, the Bears are back in sync. They are averaging 82.2 points during their last 10 games, shooting 49.9 percent from the field during this span, and have won three in a row. The Thunderbirds are a high-scoring team, but they rank 280th defensively. So the Bears should continue their high-scoring ways. Southern Utah has been terrible against the spread failing to cover in 11 of its last 15 games. | |||||||
02-13-22 | Mercer +5 v. NC-Greensboro | 73-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm not convinced UNC Greensboro is the better team. The Spartans certainly weren't when they met Mercer on Jan. 15. The Bears won, 58-49, as a 3-point home favorite. The Bears have covered three of their last four games. They are the 16th-best free throw shooting team in the nation. Greensboro is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times when favored. Perhaps the Spartans deserve to be a slight favorite being home. But I find this to be too many points. | |||||||
02-12-22 | St. Mary's +16.5 v. Gonzaga | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
In no way is this a fade on Gonzaga. Instead it's taking what I perceive to be value on a very strong defensive team in Saint Mary's. The 22nd-ranked Gaels give up 59.1 points per game. Only 10 teams surrender fewer points per game. Gonzaga has won 20 games for 25 consecutive seasons. St. Mary's has a very proud tradition, too, having reached that milestone during 14 of the last 15 seasons. | |||||||
02-12-22 | Drake +2.5 v. Bradley | 59-68 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm backing Drake in revenge mode and stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row after winning its previous four. Bradley may lack Drake's intensity following its huge, 68-61, home win against Loyola, who was in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference this past Wednesday. The Bulldogs are aiming for payback after losing, 83-71, as a 7-point home favorite against Bradley on Jan. 19. Drake is 6-2 in road games. The Bulldogs outscored their opponents by nearly eight points a game and have a better conference record than Bradley. | |||||||
02-12-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans UNDER 229.5 | 124-114 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a high total that may be an overreaction to the Spurs' last game, which was a 136-121 victory against the Hawks last night. The Spurs aren't likely to go so up-tempo playing without rest. Their previous game before last night was a 105-92 loss to the Cavaliers this past Wednesday. The Under is 7-0 the past seven times following a San Antonio victory. The Pelicans have quietly been playing good defense. They've held their last six foes to an average of 102.5 points. The Under is 13-3-1 in New Orleans' last 17 games. New Orleans is in transition following the trade deadline changing their rotation with the addition of CJ McCollum from Portland. The Pelicans were out of rhythm in their last game two days ago scoring only 97 points in a 15-point loss to the Heat. The Spurs defeated the Pelicans, 112-97, on Dec. 12 during the first meeting. That was the fifth straight time the teams have gone Under in their series. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Michael Alexander | $1,370 |
Mike Williams | $1,094 |
ProSportsPicks | $1,066 |
Hunter Price | $1,060 |
Bobby Wing | $1,040 |
Jack Jones | $960 |
Big Al McMordie | $876 |
Matt Sullivan | $750 |
Ross Benjamin | $740 |
Ray Monohan | $702 |