Warning: Use of undefined constant PAGE_HEADER - assumed 'PAGE_HEADER' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/profe126/jesseschule.com/respsportscapping.php on line 15
PAGE_HEADER

Purdue is in stop-the-pain mode having lost consecutive close games to Ohio State, Michigan State and Wisconson. The Boilermakers are better than Penn State, highly motivated and at home where they have won 14 of 15 times. Penn State last won at Mackey Arena in 2006, a string of 10 consecutive road losses. 

I have to keep riding Nebraska, which has covered a mind-boggling 16 of its last 17 games, including its last eight games. Usually when the line is at minus 2 or less, I like to protect myself with a money line play. That's the case here especially with Nebraska winning the first meeting between these two teams by just one point. 

Long-time Syracuse assistant coach Mike Hopkins has brought a tricky zone defense to Washington. So it's not a fluke the defensive-minded Huskies have gone Under the total in 10 of their last 12 games.

I don't see any reason to not ride the Under in this game pitting the teams who rank first and second, respectively, in the Pac-12 in defensive efficiency. 

Colorado struggles on the road and with committing too many turnovers. Washington was held to 40 points three games ago by Oregon and scored only 58 points at home against Utah in its last game. 

This mainly is a fade on San Francisco. The Dons are coming off a huge upset home victory against St. Mary's two days ago. It's going to be hard for the Dons to get up for this matchup in such a short time span. The Dons are 2-7 ATS following a victory. 

San Francisco also has failed to cover the spread the past five times it has been more than a four-point favorite. 

The Lions have done well in this series covering four of the past five times. 

Not only is Mike Hopkins a great coach, but he's a great Under the total coach, too, as Washington has gone below the total in nine of its last 11 games. That's because the Huskies play a zone defense similar to what Syracuse runs and what Hopkins learned when he coached at Syracuse before coming to Washington. 

There is more, though, than just this Under trend. Both teams play at a slow pace and the Huskies are No. 1 in the Pac-12 in defending against 3-pointers, which is what Utah relies on. 

I like Ohio State in this revenge spot against Penn State. The Nittany Lions dealt Ohio State its only Big Ten loss in the first meeting with a buzzer-beating basket. Penn State missed only three of 14 shots from beyond the arch in that victory against the Buckeyes. I don't expect the Nittany Lions to shoot like that again. 

I'm not deterred from the Buckeyes being on the road either. They are perfect 6-0 straight-up and ATS in their Big Ten/neutral site matchups. Going back even more, Ohio State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games versus Big Ten foes. 

Ohio State enters this matchup shooting better than 50 percent from the floor during its last five games. 

The last time Kentucky was this big of an underdog the Wildcats beat West Virginia, 83-76, as a 10-1/2 point road 'dog on Jan. 27. The Wildcats have the athleticism and talent to upset Auburn straight-up here, too. Kentucky holds a big height advantage and shouldn't be lacking for motivation with this lack of respect betting line. The Wildcats have never dropped four in a row under John Calipari. 

Much has changed for Central Florida with Tacko Fall out. Since he's been injured the Over has cashed in five of the Knights' last six games. Fall may have been the premier defensive player in college basketball. So when I see a low total like this, I'm looking to go Over.

South Florida had been a strong Over team on the road going above the total in 22 of its last 29 away contests. The Over also has won the past four times Central Florida has hosted South Florida. 

LSU is coming on winning two of its last three, including an impressive 82-66 victory against Mississippi this past Saturday. 

The Tigers have added incentive in this SEC matchup having lost by eight points at home to Alabama during the first meeting this season on Jan. 13. 

Alabama has been a money-burner in this type of spots going 4-12 ATS in its last 16 home games when opposing a foe with a losing road record. 

Nebraska doesn't receive any respect in the marketplace or from the oddsmaker. All the Cornhuskers do is cover spreads, though. The Cornhuskers are a mind-boggling 15-1 ATS in their last 16 lined games. 

Maryland is a bad road team and Nebraska is the better team if this were on a neutral court with a seven-point advantage going by points per 100 possessions. The Terrapins are 0-6 in their last six Big 10 road games. 

The Cornhuskers are well rested, too, in action for just the third time in 15 days. 

This is too many points for North Carolina to be laying carrying a high fatigue rating and in a letdown spot. The Tar Heels are in letdown mode after posting victories on Thursday against Duke and North Carolina State on Saturday. 

The buy sign is on for Notre Dame as the Irish have won their last two games beating Boston College and Florida State. Having Matt Farrell healthy again is huge for the Irish. 

The Irish played North Carolina extremely tough in the first meeting this season losing by one point as five-point home 'dogs. They have covered in six of the past nine meetings versus the Tar Heels. 

I see this as a kill spot for Georgia State, which has won 10 in a row with its last three victories coming by a combined 55 points. There is little chance of Georgia State taking Monroe lightly after the Warhawks upset Georgia Southern, 66-64 in overtime, as 10-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. 

Monroe is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games and 1-5-1 ATS following a point spread cover. 

There is enough value to make a play on Iowa State. The Cyclones can take advantage of Oklahoma;s defense to make this game close if not pull the outright upset. The Sooners have allowed 79 points or more in seven of their last eight games. Oklahoma also has failed to cove in its last five road contests. 

Oklahoma only has one road victory in the Big 12 Conference this season. That win was just by one point. It also has been a month since the Sooners posted a victory by more than this point spread. 

Rhode Island is fat, happy and rusty having won 14 in a row but not having played for a week.  I see the Rams having problems with Davidson, which is off three straight blowout victories.  

The Wildcats are road-proven having beaten Fordham, George Mason and Charlotte while losing by one point to Dayton. The Wildcats certainly won't lack for motivation after Rhoe Island ended their season in the Atlantic-10 Conference Tournament last season. 

Davidson is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine conference games. 

Davidson has switched its primary defense playing more zone. It has paid off as the Wildcats have held nine of their last 10 foes to 70 or fewer points. The Wildcats have moved up to No. 2 in defensive efficiency in the Atlantic 10 Conference. The No. 1 team in the conference in terms of defensive efficiency? It's Rhode Island. The Rams figure to be rusty, too, having not played in a week. So look for points to be harder to come by than the oddsmaker believes.  

Not only does Washington have the No. 1 ranked defense in the Pac-12, but the Huskies also are top-ranked in the conference in 3-point defense. Oregon has slowed down its tempo, but still shoots a lot from beyond the arc. 

The Under has cashed an unbelievable 22 times in Washington's last 26 Pac-12 games. The Under also has cashed in 18 of the Huskies' past 22 road contests. Oregon has gone Under in seven of its last 10 games. 

Cal State Northridge is a huge Under team. The Matadors are 16-4-1 to the Under in their last 21 games, including 7-0 to the under in their last seven Big West Conference games.

Now the Matadors go against UC Irvine, which has the No. 1 defense in the conference. Neither team is very strong offensively ranking among the bottom 100 in offensive efficiency. There were 125 points scored in the first game between the two teams. Irvine won, 71-54, by shooting 48.3 percent from the floor. The Anteaters shoot 44.1 percent from the field so they don't figure to be as hot this time around. 

Nebraska has covered in its last seven road games. Minnesota is having a disastrous season. 

You have to believe in the Cornhuskers by now. They have been huge money-makers covering 17 of their last 23, including 10 of their past 11 Big Ten games. Nebraska defeated Minnesota by 10 points when the teams met in December. 

The Gophers played well in their last game, but missed the upset losing in overtime to Michigan on the road. I don't see them bouncing back to play at a high level again. Nebraska is the better defensive team giving up nearly six fewer points per game than Minnesota and the more steady, rebliable club. 

Missouri State has gone Under in 10 of its last 12 games. The Under is 10-3-1 in Loyola's last 13 games. I see that trend continuing here as these are two defensive-minded teams who go at a slow pace. That was clear in the first meeting, which Missouri State won, 64-59, for a combined 123 points. Missouri State ranks 19th on defense while Loyola is even better ranking ninth in the country. 

Wisconsin is in revenge mode and draws Nebraska playing for the fourth time in eight days.

There were 160 points scored when the teams met earlier this season with Lehigh winning, 83-77.

I'm going to fade Tennessee-Martin in this spot. The Skyhawks are playing on the road for the fourth straight time. They also are coming off a huge upset of Jacksonville State from two days ago. The Skyhawks have lost 10 of 13 road games this season. 

Tennessee Tech has revenge for an overtime loss to Tennessee-Martin this season. 

The buy sign is back on for Butler. The Bulldogs are back on track and surely don't want to be the first Big East team to lose to St. John's this season. They lost at home to St. John's last season so they surely should be ready this time. The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 13 lined home games. 

It's evident that Chris Mullin was a far better player than a head coach. St. John's is terrible this season under Mullin.

The Red Storm are not helped by still missing injured Marcus LoVett, their second-leading scorer. 

Sources point me to Wagner. The Seahawks have been playing good ball winning five of their last six games They just beat St. Francis, 73-64, eight days ago. Wagner dominated the boards in that game outrebounding St. Francis, 36-23. 

St. Francis is a weak defensive club. The Red Flash barely 40 percent from the floor in their loss to Wagner and missed 19 of 25 3-point shots. 

After facing Ohio State and Michigan, Nebraska drops down in class here. The Cornhuskers upset the Wolverines and nearly did the same to the Buckeyes. 

Texas Tech has gone Under in six of its eight home games this season. The Red Raiders rank in the top-five in defensive efficiency and should be playing intense defense after getting blown out at Iowa State this past Saturday. Oklahoma State has tightened up its defense. Both teams rank among the bottom four in the Big 12 in terms of tempo. 

Granted Montana is playing well. However, I want the home underdog going for me in this state rivalry matchup. 

Montana State is 6-1 at home this season. The Bobcats have won and covered in their last three home games. 

The Bobcats defeated Montana, 78-69, when they hosted the Grizzlies last season. 

The oddsmaker has the wrong favorite here. Illinois-Chicago should not be a conference road favorite. The Flames have won only once in eight away contests this season.

Youngstown State's record is somewhat misleading when you consider it played the 66th most-difficult non-league schedule. The Penguins' non-conference schedule was muich more difficult than the Flames. That should pay off here.

The Penguins also have covered in their last six Horizon League games. 

Two strong defenses square off here in what should be an intense conference matchup. San Diego State is No. 1 in the Mountain West Conference in fewest points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. The Aztecs could catch the Bulldogs minus two of their three best guards, including their point guard and most accurate 3-point shooter. Both have eligibility problems that need to be fixed. 

San Diego State is the top defensive team in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs are 7-1 at home and have revenge for a home loss to Fresno State last season. Fresno State could be missing guards Jaron Hopkins and Jahmel Taylor. They are the third and fourth leading scorers on the Bulldogs. Taylor ranks fifth in the Mountain West in 3-point shooting percentage. Neither player traveled with the team on Tuesday because they are not technically enrolled in school. There's the possibility this problem may not get straighten out before tip-off.  San Diego State is at its best against smaller, perimeter-shooting based teams such as Fresno State. So the loss of two key guards really would hurt the Bulldogs.  Fresno State has failed to cover in six of its last seven Mountain West Conference matchups. 

The Loyola Chicago Ramblers are coming off a rare higher scoring game, but this is a team that has been consistently under this number. In fact, their first five MVC games were all 129 points or lower. Last game, they shot the ball extremely well and they won 81-65. I think that game was the exception rather than the rule. That last game though is giving us value on the number here.

Southern Illinois and Loyola Chicago both like to slow the game down. There is no reason this tempo should be quick at all. Neither of these team get many second chance points, and that is a clear help here.

The marketplace has been slow to see the full improvement with Duquesne this season. The Dukes rank among the top three teams in the Atlantic 10 Conference in defense and I believe they can hang with St. Louis. They have won and covered four of their last five games. 

Both teams operate at a slow tempo, which is another plus for the 'dog in this mid-size range. 

I like backing underdogs in the defensive-minded Missouri Valley Conference especially here with much-improved Drake. The Bulldogs have won and covered five of their last six games. I see them hanging in against Northern Iowa. 

Drake has a good offense, averaging more than 77 points, and its defense played well in an 81-65 home win against Evansville in its last game. 

Northern Iowa often is overpriced going 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games. That's the case again here. 

St. Joe's is averaging 83.6 points during its last three games while stepping up the pace. The Over has cashed the last six times St. Joe's has played. The over has cashed in four of UMass's last five games. 

UMass has allowed at least 79 points in three of its last four games. 

I'm looking for an uptempo, offensive-minded game here. 

These two teams have gone Over during their past eight meetings. Look for that tend to continue today.

UTEP is giving up an average of 81.6 points during its last three games. Florida International is playing at a fast pace this season. The Over is 15-6-1 in the Panthers' last 22 games.

The buy sign is back on Niagara after the Purple Eagles won consecutive road games against Siena and Marist. 

I'm not impressed with Monmouth, which is 5-10 on the season and 2-7 on the road.

Niagara has covered five of the past six times versus foes with a losing record. 

NC Wilmington averages 80.3 points per game. Elon averages 74.5 points a game. But what makes this a strong Over play is both team's defenses are terrible, especially Wilmington's, and both teams have been playing at a faster pace since league play. 

Wilmington ranks 344th defensively surrendering 85.9 points a game. The Seahawks rank near the bottom in many defensive statistical categories. They have given up an average of 90.6 points in their last three games. Elon can take advantage with its solid outside shooting. 

The Over has cashed in 13 of Wilmington's last 16 games while the Over has cashed in Elon's past seven home games. 

There are a lot of ebbs and flows to the college basketball season. Connecticut was going through a low period. But I see a buy sign now on the Huskies following their 70-65 win against East Carolina especially being home. The Huskies have won the last seven times against Central Florida. 

Central Florida plays great defense, but their offense is woeful especially from beyond the arc. So the Huskies can pack in their defense and get away with it. 

Loyola-Marymount is better than perceived, but this handicap is based more on a fade of Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are down from past seasons and have padded their statistics on bad teams.

This is just Gonzaga's fourth true road game of the season. The Bulldogs are fat and happy after a 30-point blowout road win against Pepperdine. They are 2-9 ATS, however, following a point spread cover.

Kent State isn't a very good shooting tean. That's reflected in the Golden Flashes going Under the total in 13 of their last 19 games. 

Central Michigan is a strong defensive club ranking 27th in the nation in fewest points allowed at 64.3 per game. 

A big reason why the Chippewas have a strong defensive club is because they play at a slow pace. So I don't see a fast tempo in this matchup, which makes the Under very attractive. 

The road team has covered six of the last seven in this series and I see that continuing here. VCU is coming off a tough overtime road loss to St. Joe's. The Rams had won four in a row prior to that. I don't think LaSalle is better than VCU.

The Explorers are coming off a tough game, too, at Rhode Island. They could be without their leading scorer, B.J. Johnson. He is dealing with an ankle injury. 

Just think the wrong team opened as the favorite. Siena isn't very good. The Saints have a losing home mark while being outscored by six pointd per game at home. Going back to their last 16 home contests, the Saints have covered just five times. 

Wisconsin is way down from previous seasons. The Badgers also have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among the Badgers who won't be playing is starting guard Brevin Pritzl, who has a head injury.

The Badgers haven't played well on the road going 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 away contests. Rutgers, by contrast, has covered six of its last seven home games. 

Rutgers is in stop the pain mode having lost three in a row. This is a good spot for the Scarlet Knights to end that losing skid. 

Northwestern isn't anything special neither talent-wise nor size-wise. The Wildcats also hold just a minimal home court advantage with their on-campus arena being renovated. This is forcing them to play their home games in Rosemont at the huge AllState Arena.  

The Wildcats also may be without their third leading scorer, Bryan McIntosh. He's nursing an injured knee.

Nebraska has won three in a row. The Cornhuskers are averaging 75.8 points a game. That's their highest scoring average in more than 20 years. 

Texas State has gone Under in eight of its last 11 games. It's not a fluke. Only nine teams take more time per possession to shoot than Texas State. The Bobcats rank 27th defensively holding foes to 63.5 points. So that's a powerful Under combination. 

Maybe because Vanderbilt went into Christmas break hot averaging 86.5 points in its last two games. But this total is too high given the quality of Florida's defense and recent history between these two teams. The average combined total during the past three meetings in regulation is 131.3 points.The Gators should be extremely motivated to stop the Commodores, too, in a triple revenge spot.

This is the Conference USA opener for both teams - and it's too many points for Western Kentucky to be laying.

Conference USA is wide open this season with no clear-cut favorite. Louisiana Tech has the better record and also averages four more points per game than Western Kentucky.

The Bulldogs defeated Western Kentucky by nine points last season as a 12-point home favorite. Now look at the line. Good value here to Louisiana Tech. 

 St. Mary's ranks third in the NCAA in adjusted offensive efficiency, has the second lowest turnover rate in the country and ranks 16th in the nation in shooting percentage. The Gaels also are ranked 12th in free throw percentage and 34th in 3-point percentage. Jock Landale is one of the best players in the country averaging 21.6 points a game and 9.5 rebounds.  So the Gaels definitely have the offense to cover this spread. This matchup sets up well for the Gaels to do just that. Dayton is playing just its second true road game. The Flyers last were on the road 16 days ago. The Flyers have a lot of inexperience. They are struggling to find their identity under first-year coach Anthony Grant. The Flyers don't have much height either. They are going to have problems dealing with the 6-foot-10 Landale.  The Flyers managed to hold off Georgia State, 88-83, in overtime during their last game as a six-point home favorite on Saturday. But they have not won back-to-back games all season. 

It's rarely wrong to look Under with San Diego. The Toreros have gone Under in 17 of their last 21 games. 

I see Ball State in a letdown spot after upsetting Notre Dame as an 18-point road underdog in its last game. 

I'm not high on Wisconsin this year. The Badgers are young and not overly talented. Greg Gard is not Bo Ryan.

 I like Temple in this spot. The Owls haven't played up to expectations losing twice as road chalk during their past three games. They are better than they've shown, which has made this line shorter than I thought. I see the Owls displaying their full potential in this spot. 

Winthrop has the offense to hang in against Georgia. The Eagles scored 85 points against Auburn and average 90.4 points per game. Winthrop has talent with Anders Broman and Xavier Cooks. 

I'm not impressed with Vanderbilt's offense and Kansas State's mix-and-match defense is tough particularly against non-conference opponents. The Under has cashed in 67 percent of Kansas State's last 53 non-league matchups. The Wildcats have held five of their seven opponents this season to under 60 points. A major plus to going Under in this matchup is that both teams prefer a slow tempo. 

Northwestern has been an early season disappointment opening 4-3, including losing its past two games. 

Illinois is a top-25 scoring team and Wake Forest is coming off its highest shooting percentage game under Danny Manning connecting on 61.5 percent against UNC Greensboro. So the oddsmaker has set a high total. The total is too high in my view. 

This is Illinois' first road game and first decent opponent. The Illini is averaging 89 points - all at home and against bad defensive teams. What's overlooked about them is the defensive improvement they've shown under first-year head coach Brad Underwood. The Illini ranks No. 2 in the nation in turnover margin and fifth in forcing turnovers. 

Wake Forest has played against weak defensive opponents, too. 

These are two Under the total teams - and that's the way I'm going here. 

The Under has cashed in five of Texas State's last six games, while Canisius is 7-2-1 to the Under in its last 10 games. Note that this matchup is at a neutral site, which also is a plus for the Under since neither team is familiar with the court and rims. The Golden Griffins are 8-3-1 to the Under in their last 12 neutral site games. 

The Golden Griffins don't play at such a slow pace as Texas State does. But they do have a tendency to play at the pace of their opponent. So look for a slow, methodical type of matchup that eats a lot of clock and results in a low-scoring result.