Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-22-17 | St. Louis +22 v. VCU | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
VCU is in a huge look ahead spot as its next two games are against the other top two teams in the Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island and Dayton. The Rams matchup versus Dayton likely will decide the Atlantic 10 title. I can easily envision a letdown spot for VCU with the Rams taking their foot off the pedal. VCU is 6-15-1 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The key is can the Billikens hang in? I believe they can. Saint Louis is an above average defensive team. The Billikens should play with a full amount of intensity after a bad loss to Fordham in their last game this past Saturday. Travis Ford has done a nice job coaching Saints Louis and he called out his players for lack of effort and passion following that loss to Fordham. Up until their last two games, Saint Louis had been on a nice point spread run. The Billikens are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 7-1 ATS following a loss and a tough team to cover a large margin against because of their slow pace. | |||||||
02-21-17 | NC State v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
I'm going to ride the Yellow Jackets here. They haven't lost a home game since Jan. 7 and that was versus Louisville. Among their home wins have been conference victories against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame. They have covered nine of their last 11. The teams met in mid-January and Georgia Tech won by 10 on the road. North Carolina State has dropped and failed to cover seven in a row. Mark Gottfried is a lame duck coach having already been fired. The Wolfpack fell behind Notre Dame by 23 points before losing by nine at home in their last game after getting the news about Gottfried. The Wolfpack lost to the Irish despite shooting 51.7 percent from the floor. Georgia Tech has the 16th best defensive field goal percentage in the country. Now the Wolfpack go on the road. They have lost their last three away games by a combined 79 points! | |||||||
02-21-17 | Cleveland State -143 v. Detroit | 83-91 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
Cleveland State destroyed Detroit by 17 points in the first meeting between the teams. The Vikings are in stop-the-pain mode and should win again. They have drawn early sharp action. | |||||||
02-20-17 | Texas +16 v. West Virginia | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
Texas is 0-12 on the road and at neutral sites this season. But we're not talking about a crazy money line play here. The Longhorns just need to stay fairly close, something they mostly do having not lost by more than 15 points during their past 23 games. Some of the Longhorns' road problems can be attributed to starting four underclassmen. But these young players - Jarrett Allen, Andrew Jones and Kerwin Roach to name three - are talented. Allen is a 6-foot-11 freshman who could get taken in the NBA lottery. While the Longhorns don't win on the road, they do cover spreads. Texas is 11-5 ATS the past 16 times as a road underdog. The Longhorns have lost by 10 or less points away from home against Oklahoma (by four), versus Georgia (by two), against Kansas (by two), versus Baylor (by 10), against Iowa State (by nine) and against Kansas State (by three). West Virginia just nipped Texas, 74-72, when the teams met for the first time this season on Jan. 14. The Longhorns have had tremendous point spread success versus West Virginia covering eight of the last nine times. | |||||||
02-20-17 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia OVER 118 | 54-48 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
Yes, these are two very strong defenses. But this total is just too low, an overcompensation for that. | |||||||
02-19-17 | Syracuse v. Georgia Tech +4 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a huge game for Georgia Tech and the Yellow Jackets are expecting a rare sellout crowd in their efforts to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2010. The Yellow Jackets have held foes to 36 percent shooting from the floor at home. Georgia Tech has covered eight of its last 10 games and is 4-0 ATS during its past four home games. Syracuse has won just two road games all season - by one point and in overtime. The Orangemen's defense hasn't been nearly as good away from home. They have failed to cover seven of their last nine road matchups. | |||||||
02-19-17 | UNLV +13.5 v. San Diego State | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
San Diego State won't have a sellout for the fourth straight game. The Aztecs' home-court isn't as strong as before. Their coach, Steve Fisher, is good friends with his former assistant and now UNLV coach Marvin Menzies. The Rebels have lost six in a row, but four have been by four points or less. San Diego State is 2-7 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The Aztecs don't have enough offense to cover this number. | |||||||
02-18-17 | Florida Atlantic -3 v. Southern Miss | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic has won eight of its last 10 road games and catches Southern Mississippi off an overtime upset victory against Florida International. Prior to that victory, Southern Mississippi had lost six of its last seven games. While the Golden Eagles are a bit fat and happy, the Owls are in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row, including an overtime defeat to Rice. The Golden Eagles are 7-15-1 ATS following a SU win. I see this line as short to back the better team in a good spot. | |||||||
02-17-17 | VCU v. Richmond +5.5 | 84-73 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 49 m | Show | |
This is enough points to get me involved with Richmond in this revenge spot for a loss to VCU at the beginning of the month. The line is inflated because the Spiders are off a 23-point rod loss to George Mason. Prior to that defeat, though, Richmond had covered five in a row while going 4-1. The lone defeat during this span was to VCU. The Rams shot nearly 52 percent from the floor in that game. Now VCU is a good shooting team, but not nearly that good and Richmond is solidly defensively. Only 12 teams have a better 3-point shooting defense than the Spiders. Richmond always has been a good play as a home 'dog going 20-9-1 ATS in that role. | |||||||
02-17-17 | Fairfield -118 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
The Metro Atlantic Athletic conference takes center stage today in a limited college basketball menu. Fairfield has covered the past six times as road chalk and is such a short favorite that a money line play is warranted because of the low juice. Fairfield has revenge for a 73-71 home loss to Quinipiac 11 days ago when it blew an 11-point lead with seven minutes left. The Staggs were four-point favorites in that contest. It was not one of Fairfield's better performances, but it was more on the Staggs than the Bobcats. That also was Fairfield's only loss during its past six games. The Staggs have won tougher road games than this one. Quinnipiac drew less than 600 fans to its last home game, which was a 31-point loss to St. Peter's. The Staggs are 8-2 ATS versus sub .500 teams. Quinnipiac is 2-5 in its last seven games. I don't see the Bobcats coming away with a sweep. | |||||||
02-17-17 | Idaho +5.5 v. Eastern Washington | 67-77 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Idaho did lose its last game. But prior to that the team had gone 7-1 SU and a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Expect the Vandal to bounce back in a revenge spot. They were 5 1/2-point home favorites in the first meeting and now the line is the complete opposite. | |||||||
02-16-17 | Wisconsin +2.5 v. Michigan | 58-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
The Badgers won't have senior Bronson Koenig when they take on Michigan. But the tradeoff is getting Wisconsin at this number. Koenig, who averages 13.4 points, actually hasn't been that effective since injuring his calf on Jan. 24. The Badgers have the depth and defense - fourth in the nation in scoring defense - to withstand his absence. I consider the Badgers the best team in the Big Ten and they won't lack for motivation following a 66-59 loss to Northwestern this past Sunday that ended their eight-game losing streak. The Badgers have beaten the Wolverines seven of the past eight times, including the last five. | |||||||
02-15-17 | St. John's v. Butler -9 | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
I see this as a kill spot for Butler. The Bulldogs are just 1-3 in their last four games desperate for a confidence-building blowout win and in revenge mode, here, too, for a three-point road upset loss to St. John's in late December. Butler is tough at home. The Bulldogs have covered 10 of their last 14 home contests and are 8-1-1 ATS following a loss. They had covered four in a row against St. John's until the past meeting. | |||||||
02-15-17 | Iowa State +4.5 v. Kansas State | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Kansas State has dropped five of its last six games with its lone victory during this time frame coming by just two points. The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS, too, when laying less than 10 points. Iowa State has dominated this series winning five of the last six times. The Cyclones have proven themselves as 'dogs knocking off Kansas on the road along with away victories against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. When catching three or more points, the Cyclones are 5-0 ATS. Iowa State has been receiving good low-post play from Solomon Young lately. | |||||||
02-14-17 | Dayton v. St. Louis +14 | Top | 85-63 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
OK, let's get this out of the way right away. Dayton has the best defense in the Atlantic 10. Kyle Davis is an outstanding player leading the conference both in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Flyers are an impressive team going 46-12 in their last 58 league games, but I don't see them covering this big of a road number against the improved Billikens. Saint Louis has covered the past six times it has been a 'dog. The team has covered nine of its last 10. The Billikens draw the fourth-highest crowd support in the league. They've won their last four home games and own upset home victories against Duquesne, Massachusetts and George Mason since Jan. 25. Saint Louis nearly defeated Dayton at home last season leading by nine with seven minutes left before falling in overtime. The Billikens were worse last season yet almost beat Dayton losing by three as 13-point 'dogs. The Billikens are improved both defensively and offensively topping 75 points in three of their last four games. The spot is excellent, too, for Saint Louis. The Billikens have their confidence up and catch Dayton off a huge underdog road victory against Rhode Island. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Arkansas State v. Texas State UNDER 129.5 | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
These two teams rank among the top three in the Sun Belt Conference in defensive efficiency. Texas State is adept at controlling tempo when playing at home and the Bobcats are going to play half-court here ranking 344th in tempo. The under has cashed in five of Texas State's past seven home games. That's fine with Arkansas State, which ranks 212th in tempo. The line is set too high in my view because Arkansas State has been shooting well. However, the Red Wolves are taking a step up in defensive competition. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Rider v. Fairfield -3.5 | 67-69 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Rider is a poor road team especially when stepping up failing to cover nine of the last 12 times versus home teams that are above .500. | |||||||
02-13-17 | Baylor -2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 78-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
If it weren't for beating last place Oklahoma, Texas Tech would be 0-6 in its last six Big 12 Conference games. The Red Raiders did get up in a big way to play Kansas at home this past Saturday losing 80-79 at the wire. I don't see the Red Raiders being able to come back that strong just two days later against sixth-ranked Baylor. The Bears are a school-best 22-3 through 25 games and have one of the top players in the nation, Johnathan Motley. In short turnarounds such as this for both teams, talent usually trumps. Baylor has been a huge money-maker on the road, too, gong 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 away contests. The Bears are 4-2 in conference road games with the losses coming to Kansas and West Virginia, the two teams along with themselves that are vying for the Big 12 title. It's tough to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders are not in the class of Kansas and West Virginia. | |||||||
02-12-17 | Oregon State +26 v. UCLA | 60-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
It's hard to make a case for Oregon State except to point out the spot. It's a major letdown situation for UCLA following the Bruins' 82-79 victory against sixth-ranked Oregon on Thursday. Oregon State played the Bruins fairly tight in the first meeting losing 76-63. The Bruins also had just played Oregon before that game. Stephen Thompson Jr., Oregon's second-leading scorer, is from LA and should be pumped. The Beavers have done well from an ATS standpoint in this series covering eight of the last 10. UCLA often is overpriced, which is the case here. The Bruins are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 Pac-12 games and 1-5 ATS the past six times they've been home chalk. | |||||||
02-12-17 | Nevada +4 v. San Diego State | Top | 56-70 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
These teams met early last month in Reno and Nevada won, 72-69, as two-point favorites. A key to the Wolf Pack's victory was outrebounding the Aztecs by 12 boards. Nevada is the better rebounding team, leads the Mountain West in 3-point defense and outscores San Diego State by an average of 10 points a game. The Wolf Pack have the matchup edges, motivation and history to beat the Aztecs straight-up again. San Diego State still plays outstanding defense. However, the Aztecs have lost some of their home mystique with losses to New Mexico and Colorado State since the calendar turned 2017. The Aztecs are a bad rebounding team - ranking last in the Mountain West in defensive rebounding - and have trouble scoring ranking last in the conference in scoring and free throws attempted per game. The Aztecs rely on defense and 3-point shooting. They rank 284th, though, in 3-point accuracy and Nevada has a strong perimeter defense. The Wolf Pack are in a dogfight with Boise State and Colorado State to win the Mountain West. The big question is can the Wolf Pack win on the road? They had a bad loss to Utah State, falling 74-57 on Feb. 1, in their last road game. Prior to that game, however, the Wolf Pack posted three consecutive road victories defeating New Mexico, Wyoming and Boise State. The wins against Wyoming and Boise State were in blowout fashion. My feeling is Nevada learned from that road loss to Utah State and should produce a high level game here. Nevada has been a huge money-maker in this spread range covering 13 of the last 16 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack also is 18-6-2 ATS the last 26 times facing an above .500 foes. | |||||||
02-11-17 | Siena v. Marist +6.5 | 84-77 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Marist isn't very good. We know that. But Sienna can't be trusted as road chalk. The Saints aren't strong enough.The records bear this out. The Saints have failed to cover nine of the past 12 times they've been favored. Sienna also is just 6-15-1 against the spread the past 22 times it has been a road favorite. | |||||||
02-11-17 | North Texas v. Florida International -4.5 | Top | 71-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a stop-the-pain home game for Florida International, losers of four in a row. The timing is ripe for the Golden Panthers to do just that. Florida International catches North Texas fat and happy after the Mean Green posted a 70-64 road upset win against Florida Atlantic this past Thursday. That victory halted an 11-game losing streak for the Mean Green. North Texas, though, is horrible on the road going 5-16-1 ATS during its last 22 away contests and has failed to cover the past five times following a rare victory. North Texas isn't used to winning, far less so on the road. The Golden Panthers won't lack for motivation. They can just remember last year's game when they blew a 12-point lead with around six minutes left in a 77-75 road loss to the Mean Green during their previous meeting. Stephen Nover Saturday Free Pick Northern Illinois plus 4 1/2 at Western Michigan The combination of getting the better team with the superior defense and a bunch of points puts me on Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois is four games above .500 while Western Michigan is 8-15. According to the latest Ken Pomeroy's ratings, Northern Illinois ranks 194th, while Western Michigan is 205th. The Huskies have the 70th stingiest defense in the country giving up 68.2 points per game. That number actually comes down to 65.6 when they are on the road. By contrast, Western Michigan allows 78.6 points a game. The Broncos are off a 72-55 win against Miami of Ohio in their last game this past Tuesday. They have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a victory. Northern Illinois is 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times playing Western Michigan. The Huskies have covered three of their past four road games, all as either an underdog or pick. | |||||||
02-11-17 | Fordham +7 v. George Mason | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Fordham is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus George Mason. The Rams can take advantage of George Mason being a poor favorite in this spread range - 1-8 ATS laying from 7 to 12 1/2 points - and coming off a 76-69 upset victory against Davidson this past Wednesday night. The Patriots were 11-point underdogs in that game against Davidson. So it wouldn't be surprising if the Patriots' intensity was down a notch here. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Harvard -5 v. Brown | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
The last time Brown defeated Harvard was 2009. The Bears have dropped 14 in a row to the Crimson. I'm going to ride that streak agreeing with the early money movement on Harvard. The Crimson is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 Ivy League games and 12-3-2 ATS during their past 17 games. Brown has yet to find consistency dropping six of its last eight. | |||||||
02-10-17 | Dayton v. Rhode Island -3.5 | 75-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rhode Island has been playing excellent defense in winning its last four games. Not only is this a revenge game for the Rams, who lost 67-64 at Dayton, but it's crucial for their Atlantic 10 chances and possible NCAA Tourney berth. The Rams have held four of their last five opponents to below 1.00 in points per possession with the national average being 1.05. The Rams rank in the top 15 in 3-point defense and in the top 60 in percentage of blocked shots and steals. Dayton had a struggle on Tuesday before dispatching St. Joe's. The Flyers have already lost road games to UMass and VCU. Rhode Island is 11-1 at home and is 3-0-1 ATS the past four times hosting Dayton. | |||||||
02-09-17 | North Texas +7 v. Florida Atlantic | 70-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic is in a letdown spot as mid-size home chalk after upsetting Old Dominion this past Saturday as an 11-point road 'dog. Florida Atlantic isn't strong enough to cover this number if not playing well. North Texas is looking for its first Conference USA win and will be loose. The Owls are 1-7 ATS when laying between 7 and 12 1/2 points. | |||||||
02-09-17 | Belmont -4.5 v. Jacksonville State | 66-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Belmont has too much offense for Jacksonville State and is a far better free throw shooting team. The teams met on Jan. 19 and Belmont won easily, 77-60. Belmont has covered its last five road games and is 18-6 ATS versus opponents that have a winning home mark. Jacksonville State has been a money-burner at home failing to cover in eight of its last nine home contests. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Stanford v. Arizona -13.5 | 67-74 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
I see a blowout here. Arizona has dominated Stanford winning and covering during the past five meetings while winning the last 14 in the series. This includes the Wildcats burying the Cardinal, 91-52, earlier this season. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Rutgers v. Ohio State -10.5 | 64-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
There's a major class difference here as Ohio State is coming on and catches Rutgers coming off a huge 70-68 road win against Penn State this past Saturday. That was Rutgers' first road win in 24 Big Ten games. Ohio State is 3-0 versus Rutgers since the Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten. The Buckeyes buried Rutgers, 94-68, at home last season. Rutgers is improved, but not to the point where it can stay within double-digits of the Buckeyes in Columbus. | |||||||
02-08-17 | Baylor +2.5 v. Oklahoma State | 72-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Baylor has lost two in a row. But Oklahoma State being favored against the Bears is an overreaction. The Bears were contending to be top-ranked last week before losing games to Kansas State and Kansas. Now the Bears are in stop-the-pain mode. No Big 12 team plays better defense than Baylor, which gives up the fewest points per game and is No. 1, too, in defensive field goal percentage. Baylor also ranks No. 1 in RPI. I see Baylor, which defeated Oklahoma State earlier this season, trumping the Cowboys this time around with its superior defense. | |||||||
02-07-17 | San Diego State -6.5 v. San Jose State | 71-76 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 17 m | Show | |
San Jose State is much improved. But I don't see the Spartans winning a season-high third consecutive game. San Diego State has won five of seven since opening 0-3 in the Mountain West. Its two losses were by a combined four points. The Aztecs have a plus 34 scoring margin. The buy sign is on them here with San Jose State in a letdown spot and the Aztecs expected to have Zylan Cheatham, Malik Pope and Max Hoetzel all playing. San Diego State beat San Jose State, 76-61, on Jan. 10. The Aztecs are a level higher than the Spartans, good enough to win by double-digits again especially with a full lineup. The Spartans are off a huge 78-68 road win against New Mexico this past Saturday. They were 10 1/2-point 'dogs in that game. That was their first victory ever against the Lobos in 14 tries. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Iowa State v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
I'm playing the letdown card strong fading Iowa State off its monster double-digit upset road overtime win against second-ranked Kansas this past Saturday. The Cyclones pulled the upset by coming from 15 points down in ending the Jayhawks' 51-game home win streak while likely securing their place in the Big Dance with that victory. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS following a spread cover and has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games in Austin. Texas has the talent to beat Iowa State. The youthful Longhorns have begun to play better going 2-2 following five straight losses. Freshman big man Jarrett Allen has come on to average 16 points and 10.5 rebounds during his last 10 games. The Longhorns are tough at home - owning Big 12 victories against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech not to mention losing by only two to then ninth-ranked West Virginia - and have also covered seven of the last eight times as underdogs. Texas has also covered 71 percent of its last 24 Big 12 games. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Michigan State +5 v. Michigan | 57-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Michigan State just beat Michigan, 70-62, on Jan. 29. Now the Wolverines are favored by this much? I'm not buying it. | |||||||
02-07-17 | Alabama v. South Carolina -7 | 90-86 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
South Carolina has won four in a row. The Gamecocks rank No. 1 defensively in the SEC. They can easily keep Alabama in check. The Crimson Tide rank ninth in the league offensively. Alabama is reeling from a bad loss to in-state rival Auburn. The Tide has failed to cover in 12 of its last 17 SEC games. | |||||||
02-05-17 | Colorado +7 v. California | 66-77 | Loss | -102 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
A tough schedule and tough luck made things rough in the early going for Colorado. The Buffaloes started 0-7 in the Pac-12. But four of those losses came by three or fewer points. Now things are turning around for the Buffaloes, winners of three in a row and getting outstanding play from senior guard Derrick White. The Buffaloes are catching an inflated spread here and worth taking. Cal has covered just one of its last six games while going 5-10 ATS at home this season. | |||||||
02-04-17 | UC-Irvine -3 v. Long Beach State | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Cal Irvine is the superior team and is in stop-the-pain mode after losing two in a row. The Anteaters had won eight in a row before their losing streak. Long Beach State is 4-4 in the Big West Conference, two games behind Cal Irvine and UC Davis for the lead. But the 49ers are overmatched here. They are 7-15 ATS, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when going against an above .500 foe. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Portland v. BYU -19.5 | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
Portland was bad even before losing star player and leading scorer Alex Wintering for the season with a knee injury. But the Pilots have really fallen apart. They have become a near auto-fade. They are in the throngs of a nine-game losing streak going 2-7-1 ATS. Portland's last two losses have each come at home by 15 to Santa Clara and 16 to San Diego. BYU is a kill mood after losing to Gonzaga in its last game. The Cougars are 11-3-1 ATS following a loss. | |||||||
02-04-17 | San Jose State +11 v. New Mexico | 78-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
San Jose State has finished last the past three seasons since joining the Mountain West Conference. But the Spartans are much improved this season already exceeding last year's win total. The Spartans are keyed by perhaps the best player in the conference - power forward Brandon Clarke. The 6-foot-8 Clarke leads the Mountain West in scoring at 23.3 points a game. He also tops the conference in field goal percentage and blocked shots while ranking in the top five in rebounding. The Lobos are dealing with a cluster injury problem down two starters and a key reserve. One of those out is Tim Williams, the Lobos' second-leading scorer at 17.8 points. New Mexico has been plagued by sloppy ball handling committing 33 turnovers in its last two games. The Lobos are usually overvalued at home, too. They've failed to cover in five of their last six home contests. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Texas State v. Texas-Arlington -10.5 | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
The line is short considering Texas Arlington was minus 8 1/2 as a road favorite against Texas State when the teams met on Jan. 7. Texas State upset Texas Arlington winning 81-73. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Western Kentucky -3 v. Southern Miss | 64-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
This line opened short. Western Kentucky is more consistent than Southern Mississippi and averages seven more points per game. The Golden Eagles are hampered by their poor shooting - under 40 percent from the field. This also is a letdown spot for the Golden Eagles after they stunned Marshall, 91-76, at home on Thursday. | |||||||
02-04-17 | Elon +5.5 v. College of Charleston | 58-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
College of Charleston is a letdown spot after getting revenge Thursday nipping UN Wilmington, 67-66, as a 7 1/2-point road 'dog. Elon has won five in a row and has covered eight of its last nine games. The Phoenix are especially tough as a road 'dog covering 16 of the last 21 in that capacity. | |||||||
02-04-17 | William & Mary +1.5 v. Towson | 80-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
William & Mary averages eight more points than Towson State. The Tribe is on a nice roll winning and covering the past four times in blowout fashion. The Tribe has covered in six of their last eight visits to Towson State. Towson State just edged Drexel, 104-103, in overtime on Thursday. This is a short turnaround from that huge win. | |||||||
02-03-17 | St. Peter's +9 v. Monmouth | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
St. Peter's is playing well covering six of its last seven. St. Peter's also is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games while Monmouth has a losing spread mark at home. The line is too high, which is the opinion of several sharps who follow this conference closely. I'm going to join them in taking the points. | |||||||
02-02-17 | UAB -5 v. UTEP | 59-63 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 10 m | Show | |
Alabama-Birmingham's class difference should prove itself here. UAB has won seven of its last eight and is 7-2 in Conference USA. UTEP is coming off a surprising 91-68 road win against Marshall this past Saturday. That was just the third time the Miners have covered in their last 11 games. They are 1-5 ATS during their past six home games. | |||||||
02-02-17 | Portland State +4 v. Idaho | 72-89 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
Idaho upset Montana as seven-point road 'dogs in overtime this past Saturday. Now the Vandals are home where they have failed to cover in five of their last seven games. Portland State averages 14 more points per game than Idaho. The Vikings are off back-to-back losses the latter coming to Sacramento State in overtime. The Vandals should prove tough in this spot. They've covered six of the last seven times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. | |||||||
02-02-17 | Santa Clara -5 v. Portland | Top | 60-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
Santa Clara is a full tier behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference hierarchy. But the Broncos are far better than Portland. That was proven in the first meeting between the teams, which Santa Clara won, 70-42, on Jan. 5. Portland was in free fall dropping four in a row - and that was before their leading scorer and star guard, Alec Wintering, was lost for the season with a torn ACL. That happened less than two weeks ago and the Pilots haven't recovered losing by 16 points to San Diego at home this past Saturday. Portland lost its previous game to Pepperdine, 78-60, as a five-point road 'dog. Wintering was averaging 19.5 points and 5.6 assists per game. Without Wintering, the Pilots aren't just one of the worst teams in the WCC but in the entire country losers of eight in a row. | |||||||
02-02-17 | Northern Arizona v. Idaho State -5 | 90-91 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
What does it tell you that the oddsmaker has installed Idaho State, the last-place team in the Big Sky Conference, as a decent-sized favorite against Northern Arizona? It tells me Idaho State is the right side here. The Bengals are in circle-the-wagons mode, have an excellent player in Ethan Telfair and catch Northern Arizona in a bad situational spot. The Lumberjacks just hosted Northern Colorado and North Dakota. Both were revenge games for the Lumberjacks. Northern Arizona won both games winning straight-up as six-point 'dogs to Northern Colorado and 9 1/2-point 'dogs to North Dakota this past Saturday. Northern Arizona takes on Big Sky leader Weber State on the road this Saturday. So this is both a letdown and look-ahead spot for Northern Arizona. | |||||||
02-01-17 | Florida State +2 v. Miami (Fla) | 75-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
This is a stop-the-pain game for Florida State, which has dropped two in a row. Miami is 3-14 ATS as a favorite - 1-8 ATS as home chalk - and coming off a huge 77-62 win over then sixth-ranked North Carolina. Florida State showed some positive signs in the second half of its loss to Syracuse in its last game. The Seminoles present a pressure defense that should cause problems to the Hurricanes, who ranked 260th in assist-to-turnover ratio. | |||||||
01-31-17 | Dayton -10.5 v. Fordham | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
Dayton is vastly better than Fordham and should have plenty of motivation following a 73-69 road loss to VCU in its last game this past Friday. That loss snapped a three-game Dayton win streak. The Flyers have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 67 points or fewer. Fordham averages just 64.7 points in Atlantic 10 play. Fordham has a day less rest having lost 84-66 at home to Davidson this past Saturday. The Rams rank 217th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, while Dayton rates 36th. The Flyers have covered the past six times versus Fordham, including winning 64-50 during the lone meeting last season. Fordham is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games, failing to cover in four of its past five home contests. | |||||||
01-30-17 | Western Carolina v. Mercer -13 | Top | 47-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The teams just met on Jan. 21 at Western Carolina and Mercer won, 70-50. Mercer accomplished the 20-point road victory despite making 11 of 19 free throws compared to the Catamounts sinking 16 of 21 free throws. The timing is right for Mercer to bury Western Carolina again. Mercer is playing well covering seven of its last eight games. Western Carolina is off a surprising 68-62 home win against Wofford this past Saturday. The Catamounts were 9 1/2-point underdogs. They have not won or covered two consecutive games all season. Western Carolina also has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 road contests. | |||||||
01-29-17 | Virginia v. Villanova -5 | Top | 59-61 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Look for Villanova to come back strong at home. The defending national champion Wildcats have had four full days to stew about blowing a 17-point lead in a road loss to Marquette this past Tuesday. From that loss, the Wildcats should stress more defensive consistency and a better mix on offense. Virginia is great again defensively leading the nation in fewest points per game. But the Cavaliers lack Villanova's scoring and shoot far worse from the free throw line. Villanova ranks third in the country in free throw percentage at 79 percent. Playing at home, I would take Villanova's offense over Virginia's defense especially coming off a surprising loss. Villanova's prideful seniors - Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds - have never lost consecutive games. The Wildcats usually respond well to a defeat covering eight of the last nine times in those instances. | |||||||
01-28-17 | Eastern Washington v. Montana State UNDER 154 | 90-91 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
These two teams met earlier this season and Eastern Washington won, 82-64. That's a combined 146 points and Eastern Washington shot 60.4 percent from the floor. The under has cashed seven of the last nine times they've met with the average score being 138 points during the last 13 games in the series. Both teams have improved defensively compared to last season while not being as good offensively. So this total is set too high. | |||||||
01-28-17 | Providence +8.5 v. Marquette | 79-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Providence has played a tough schedule and is at its best as a road 'dog covering 13 of the last 18 times in that role. Marquette is in a prime letdown spot after its dramatic home victory against top-ranked Villanova on Tuesday. Marquette historically is bad in this role, too, going 5-13 ATS at home versus a sub .500 opponent and is 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times when laying between seven and 12 1/2 points. | |||||||
01-28-17 | Kansas State -110 v. Tennessee | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
This is mostly a fade against Tennessee following the Volunteers' big upset victory in their last game against Kentucky. The Vols start three freshmen and are prone to a letdown in my view more than most teams off a huge victory. | |||||||
01-27-17 | Green Bay v. Oakland -7.5 | 80-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Look for Oakland to bounce back from an 88-67 loss to Wright State. The Golden Grizzlies have too strong of an offense to have another bad shooting game. Oakland averages 10 more points than its opponent when playing at home. The Golden Grizzlies also have covered 74 percent of their last 43 games versus foes with a winning record. Green Bay is having a good season, but have a losing road record. The Phoenix have been outscored by six points per game on the road. Oakland scored 111 points in each of its games against Green Bay last season winning by 16 at Green Bay and 18 at home. So this spread isn't out of line. | |||||||
01-27-17 | Harvard -6 v. Cornell | 77-71 | Push | 0 | 5 h 0 m | Show | |
Harvard is playing well winning nine of its last 10 games. The Crimson have covered in each of their last six games. | |||||||
01-25-17 | UCLA -5.5 v. USC | Top | 76-84 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
UCLA has the talent to blow out just about any team, including USC. The Bruins certainly have the motivation coming off an 11-point loss to Arizona and having triple revenge against the Trojans from last season. The Bruins should redeem themselves after surrendering 96 points to the Wildcats and having their defense called soft. USC is off an 82-79 win versus Arizona State. It has been eight games since the Trojans last won two in a row. They are 0-8 ATS following a victory and 1-7 ATS in their past eight home contests. | |||||||
01-24-17 | Virginia v. Notre Dame +1 | 71-54 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
This is the time Notre Dame finally beats Virginia. The Irish are home. That can't be underestimated. They are 12-0 on their homecourt. | |||||||
01-23-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas-Arlington -5.5 | 71-108 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
Arlington averages 86 points at home. That's a big reason why the Mavericks are 7-0 at home. They have too much offense and rebounding for Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns are playing in their second road game in three days. They have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 Sun Belt Conference games and can't be trusted on the road where they have been inconsistent. | |||||||
01-21-17 | UC-Irvine -4 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 105-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points. Northridge is four games under .500 on the season. The Matadors are 6-9 ATS on the season, 2-6 ATS when playing at home. They just lost by three at Hawaii on Wednesday. So this is a short turnaround coming back from the islands. The Matadors have failed to cover the past nine times following a loss. Irvine, by contrast, buried Hawaii by 28 points two weeks ago. Hawaii has stepped up its game since then and Irvine did play that game at home, but a 28-point win compared to a three-point loss still is a monster contrast. Note, too, the Anteaters also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing a foe that has a below .400 winning percentage. The Anteaters have a well-balanced team. They've won seven in a row, unbeaten in league play. They are playing their best ball. The same certainly can't be said for Northridge. | |||||||
01-21-17 | Northern Iowa +3 v. Southern Illinois | 58-57 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
It's been a down year for Northern Iowa. That's for sure. But the Panthers finally have a little momentum winning two in a row. They still can play defense allowing 67.3 points per game and are well-coached. This is a prideful team. I'm going to ride them here in a 'dog role. | |||||||
01-21-17 | Cincinnati v. Tulane OVER 138 | 78-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm not impressed with Tulane's defense as it has allowed 80 or more points in all but one of its last six games. The Green Wave do rank first in the AAC in tempo, though. That's a good over combination. | |||||||
01-21-17 | Michigan State +5.5 v. Indiana | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
I like Michigan State as a 'dog here. Indiana already has lost SU at home to Nebraska and Wisconsin. The Spartans have been idle for a week so they will be well rested and prepared under Tom Izzo. Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan State by more than four points since 2013. | |||||||
01-20-17 | Eastern Michigan +5.5 v. Akron | 63-70 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
The last four games between these two teams has been decided by four points or less and Eastern Michigan has covered each of them. Eastern Michigan is somewhat under the radar with an excellent big man, 6-foot-10 James Thompson. He's third in the MAC in rebounds and is second in field goal percentage. Eastern Michigan has the experience, height and good line value to get the cover here if not win outright. | |||||||
01-19-17 | Davidson v. La Salle UNDER 155 | 83-91 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
The total opened too high here. LaSalle hasn't broken 69 points the past four times playing Davidson. There hasn't been more than 146 points scored during the past four meetings between the two schools. | |||||||
01-18-17 | Missouri State v. Indiana State +1.5 | 73-68 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Big revenge spot here for Indiana State, which lost in overtime to Missouri State on New Year's Eve. This has been a home team series with the host going 6-1-1 ATS. Missouri State is playing on the road for the second time in four days. The Bears are 3-8-1 ATS when playing an opponent with an above .500 record at home. The Bears also have failed to cover seven of the last eight times they've been favored. | |||||||
01-17-17 | San Diego State -5 v. UNLV | Top | 64-51 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
San Diego State is healthy and too strong defensively for a down UNLV team. | |||||||
01-16-17 | Green Bay +8.5 v. Valparaiso | 56-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
I see value here with Green Bay, which is 18-7-2 ATS in its last 27 Horizon League games. Valparaiso is down from last season. The Crusaders' adjusted defensive efficiency has dropped 95 places, their 3-point shooting percentage is down five percent and their block percentage has dropped 253 places. The Crusaders lack depth and have backcourt issues with more turnovers than assists. They also have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games | |||||||
01-15-17 | USC v. Colorado -3 | 71-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
At 0-4, Colorado is desperate to get its first Pac-12 victory. I see that happening here against a USC team minus injured big man Benny Boatwright and who plays much worse on the road. The Trojans have dropped three of their last four games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games. Colorado had to play its first three conference games on the road and then drew fourth-ranked UCLA at home. The Buffaloes are 7-1 against USC since joining the Pac-12. They have covered five of the past times versus the Trojans. | |||||||
01-14-17 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -7.5 | 56-79 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show | |
Unbeaten Gonzaga has another powerhouse team. I believe the Zags are for real and a level higher than St. Mary's. I would lay single digits with the Zags at home against the Gaels. St. Mary's can't match the Bulldogs' scoring and height. The Zags have covered 13 of their last 16 conference games and 78 percent of their past 28 overall games. Gonzaga has balanced scoring and the height with five players 6-foot-10 or taller to key on St. Mary's big man Jock Lonsdale. | |||||||
01-14-17 | Georgia v. Florida UNDER 142 | 76-80 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
This is the highest total for this series in a long time - and it's not justified. | |||||||
01-12-17 | UC-Irvine -6 v. UC-Santa Barbara | Top | 66-62 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
Cal Davis and UC Irvine are the two best teams in the Big West Conference. Santa Barbara is tied for the worst record in the league at 2-11. The Gauchos lost 73-47 to Cal Davis in their last game. Now they draw Irvine. I'm not looking for a 26-point Anteater victory, but I do think they will win easily by double-digits. Cal Irvine is playing well riding a four-game win streak. The Anteaters rank 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Santa Barbara is a very poor shooting team, which extends to free throws. The Anteaters' are 65-3 when holding opponents to 60 points or less, including 7-1 this season. Irvine holds major edges here in defense, rebounding and bench strength. Santa Barbara has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 games. Irvine is 17-5 ATS versus sub .500 opponents and 9-2 ATS as a road favorite. Some of this can be explained by their strong bench, which has outscored opponent's reserves by 12 points a game. That margin increases to nearly 15 a game when you factor just the last nine games. The Anteaters beat the Gauchos, 61-52, at Santa Barbara last January, but lost the rematch at home last Jan. 30. So the Anteaters should be focused. | |||||||
01-09-17 | Troy State +6.5 v. Georgia State | 80-77 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Troy is the more experienced and better team here. The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games. The Trojans played USC tough and is averaging nearly 80 points during their last five games. Troy also is a much better free throw shooting team than Georgia State, which is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 home games. The Panthers are still trying to recover from losing several key players from a year ago. | |||||||
01-08-17 | Wichita State v. Northern Iowa +10.5 | 80-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
OK, pile on Northern Iowa. The Panthers are just 5-9 and averaging a puny 63.8 points a game. Wichita State is coming off consecutive blowout home victories against Bradley and Drake. All of this, along with early market activity, has caused the Panthers to be undervalued here. Northern Iowa still plays outstanding defense. They are an excellent 'dog in this spot being home, well-coached and playing at their slow pace desperate for a conference victory. The Panthers are going to do everything it takes to control tempo here. This is a team that did win 23 games last season and knows how to win big games. Wichita State isn't so dominant on the road. The Shockers failed to cover in their lone Missouri Valley Conference away game beating Indiana State by eight as a 10 1/2-point favorite. Indiana State is worse than Northern Iowa. Only twice in the past 10 games against Wichita State have the Panthers lost by double-digits at home. The Shockers' non-home victories have come versus suspect defensive teams not elite opponents such as Michigan State and Louisville. | |||||||
01-07-17 | Furman +9 v. Chattanooga | 64-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
Tennessee Chattanooga hasn't been playing well this season. The Moccasins aren't a fast-paced team either. So it's not a big surprise they are terrible when installed as a mid-size favorite failing to cover the past eight times when laying between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Furman, on the other hand, is very good in an underdog role especially in this spread range where the Paladins have covered the past six times when getting between 7 and 12 1/2 points. Furman has four starters back from last season and showed its competitiveness when stepping up losing by just six points to Michigan and Georgia as double-digit road 'dogs. The Paladins have covered the past four in this series winning twice straight-up and never losing by more than eight during this span. Furman has covered all four of its true road contests this season. | |||||||
01-07-17 | Youngstown State v. Wright State OVER 153.5 | 80-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
Youngstown State ranks 314th defensively. Wright State could score 90 here especially since it is playing more up-tempo under its new coach. The oddsmaker made this total lower than anticipated based on Wright State scoring only 55 points against Cleveland State, a much different foe than Youngstown State. The Penguins can get their share of points, too, thanks to guard Cameron Morse, who averages more than 22 points a game, and a pair of big men who each are making better than 58 percent of their field goals. The over has cashed five of the last seven times the teams have met. | |||||||
01-05-17 | Davidson +1.5 v. George Washington | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
Sharp money has come on Davidson and I agree. The Wildcats have a strong recent history in this spread range covering eight of the last 10 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wildcats also have covered 29 of the last 41 times on the road against a foe with a winning home mark. George Washington has covered just one of its last seven home games. The Wildcats are highly motivated having lost straight-up as an 11-point home favorite against Richmond in their last game. | |||||||
01-05-17 | Old Dominion v. Marshall -160 | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Marshall has yet to lose at home this season. The Thundering Herd have always been tough at home covering 72 percent of their last 26 home contests. Marshall beat Old Dominion twice last season, including winning by 17 points at home on a short spread such as this one. The Monarchs have been having trouble shooting making less than 37 percent from the floor and just 61 percent from the free throw line. | |||||||
12-22-16 | Texas-Arlington v. Loyola Marymount UNDER 141.5 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Texas Arlington and Loyola-Marymount are a combined 12-1-1 to the under this season. Texas-Arlington has the No. 1 3-point defense in the country. The under has cashed in 21 of the Mavericks' last 28 road games. Texas-Arlington showed how strong its defense is holding Saint Mary's to just 51 points two games ago. The Mavericks haven't surrendered more than 51 points during each of their last three games. Marymount isn't a good long range shooting team and the Lions also don't draw many fouls. Both teams turn the ball over a lot. The pace isn't going to be fast either for this match. The Mavericks are going to be hard-pressed to perform well at this small venue where Marymount held Connecticut to 65 points in a 65-62 loss earlier this season. | |||||||
12-19-16 | Troy State v. Wyoming -8 | 66-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Troy has covered just two of its last eight road contests. It's Troy's third road game in six days. The Trojans are 2-8 ATS the past 10 times they've been underdogs. Troy nearly stunned USC, though, in its last game losing 82-77 as 22-point 'dogs on Saturday. Wyoming has been home since Nov. 26. The Cowboys have won five straight. This is the final game of a six-game homestand. Wyoming should be back to full strength for this matchup as it was missing three plays during its last game reducing bench strength. | |||||||
12-16-16 | Long Beach State v. Oregon State UNDER 135.5 | 71-67 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Oregon State really misses injured forward Tres Tinkle, out with a broken wrist. The Beavers should play with great defensive intensity here after losing at home to Savannah State. The team held a fiery team meeting following that loss. Both teams turn the ball over frequently. Neither team plays high tempo either. Long Beach State doesn't have great defensive numbers, but that's because it's played an extremely hard schedule. Note, too, this game is being played in Portland, a neutral site. That's a plus for the under. | |||||||
12-14-16 | UC-Irvine v. Nevada -11 | Top | 69-76 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Nevada Reno has way too much offense and talent for Irvine, which has height and can play defense but is far too limited offensively. The Wolf Pack are averaging 19 more points per game than Irvine. I like Reno coach Eric Musselman. He's proved especially strong in a favorite's role as the Wolf Pack are 14-3-2 ATS the past 19 times they've been chalk. They also are 14-3-1 ATS during their last 18 home games. Cal Irvine has 23 more turnovers than assists. The Anteaters are shooting 41.6 percent from the field despite a tall front line and hit only 31.3 percent of their 3-pointers. Reno does a great job of not fouling. Irvine averages less than 17 free throw attempts per game. Irvine has no backdoor ability to cover if it should fall far behind, which I expect. This shapes up as a blowout win for the Wolf Pack. The opening number is short. | |||||||
12-10-16 | Michigan +9 v. UCLA | Top | 84-102 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
UCLA has to deal not only with getting back down from the high of knocking off then-No. 1 Kentucky, but a rust factor, too. The Bruins haven't played since beating the Wildcats a week ago. Michigan is a top-10 defensive club. The Wolverines have proven capable beating Texas. The Bruins are in heady territory. Their youth and maturity could catch up to them here against this well-coached, tough Big Ten team. So I'll take this many points. | |||||||
12-10-16 | Temple v. DePaul UNDER 150.5 | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
Notice the neutral site here. It's American Airlines Arena in Miami, a site neither team is familiar with. This also is a very early start time. Both factors are good for the under. Temple is traditionally a strong defensive team that plays a slow tempo. That's the case again this season. DePaul isn't a face paced team either and the Blue Demons have been putting more emphasis on defense. They are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country. | |||||||
12-08-16 | Texas-Arlington v. St. Mary's UNDER 140 | Top | 65-51 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
The pace is going to be slow here. St. Mary's milks the shot clock and Texas-Arlington is playing less up-tempo this season. The Mavericks have gone under in their last seven games and gone below the total in 19 of their past 26 road matchups. Arlington plays tough perimeter defense so St. Mary's is likely going to go deep into the shot clock before shooting. The Mavericks aren't a good free throw shooting team and St. Mary's doesn't draw many fouls. So look for defense to rule here. | |||||||
12-06-16 | Brown +13.5 v. Providence | 57-95 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 16 m | Show | |
Brown takes this game much more serious than Providence. It's a very short trip - about one mile - so Brown will get fan support. Brown has covered 20 of the last 28 times going against foes with a winning home mark. The Bears are 6-1 ATS the last seven times taking 13 or more on the road. | |||||||
12-01-16 | CS Sacramento v. Pacific -10 | Top | 58-74 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Sacramento State plays in the Big Sky, a very weak conference. The Hornets haven't covered a game all season. They're likely to get blown out here against a superior Pacific team that is looking to make a strong statement at home under first year head coach Damon Stoudamire. | |||||||
11-30-16 | South Alabama -4 v. Southern Miss | 78-55 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
I want the now road-tested Jaguars off a double-digit loss in their last game. The Jaguars are better than Southern Mississippi and have proven themselves away from home beating UNLV. South Alabama also traveled to Europe during the summer and played four exhibition games. | |||||||
11-24-16 | Quinnipiac v. Gonzaga OVER 154.5 | Top | 62-82 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
Gonzaga should have no problem breaking triple digits here. The Bulldogs are averaging more than 100 points this season and have tremendous front line scoring with 7-footers Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins. The Bulldogs have scoring depth, too. Quinnipiac gives up an average of 90 points a game. | |||||||
11-19-16 | CS-Fullerton v. UNLV -7.5 | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
The Rebels don't lack for talent and should play more relaxed after getting their first victory for new coach Marvin Menzies this past Wednesday. | |||||||
11-17-16 | Connecticut -7 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 65-62 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Could Connecticut actually open the season 0-3? Nope. I see a focused Huskies squad shooting much better and having no problem with Loyola Marymount, an average at best team from the West Coast Conference. | |||||||
11-16-16 | San Francisco v. UC-Santa Barbara UNDER 143 | Top | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
There were 129 combined points when the teams met last November with Santa Barbara winning as a slight road 'dog. Look for a similar low-scoring game this time around. | |||||||
11-15-16 | CS Bakersfield +17.5 v. Arizona | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Cal State Bakersfield is underrated and getting too many points just based on playing a Pac-12 opponent. The Roadrunners are a tough, physical defensive team. They won the WAC Tournament and made the NCAA Tournament last year giving Oklahoma problems in the first round. | |||||||
11-15-16 | Dayton +1 v. Alabama | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show | |
Dayton is the better team and the Flyers proved it last year burying Alabama, 80-48, early in the season. Not enough has changed to make me think Dayton isn't the superior team again. | |||||||
11-14-16 | Louisiana-Monroe +18 v. Texas | 59-80 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Texas is very young with seven underclassmen in the rotation. The Longhorns were less than impressive in their opener beating Incarnate World, 78-73, this past Friday at home. Texas is 5-12 ATS during its last 17 lined non-conference matchups. | |||||||
11-13-16 | CS-Northridge v. UCLA OVER 170 | 87-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Cal-State Northridge's offensive was impressive during exhibition play. The Matadors have a pair of excellent scoring guards.
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11-12-16 | Toledo v. St. Joe's UNDER 153 | Top | 76-77 | Push | 0 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Saint Joseph's lost 64 percent of its scoring from a year ago, including superstar DeAndre Bembry. Neither team played a fast tempo last season and that's likely to hold true especially for Saint Joseph, which also lost Aaron Brown and Isaiah Miles. | |||||||
11-11-16 | Evansville v. Louisville -22 | 47-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
I like the Cardinals to blow out Evansville here. Rick Pitino has installed a new uptempo offense so the Cardinals are going to be playing very fast, which could catch their early-season opponents such as Evansville off guard. | |||||||
11-11-16 | Evansville v. Louisville OVER 139.5 | 47-78 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
There's a perception Louisville's scoring could be down because its three top scorers from a year ago are gone. But Louisville is playing more up-tempo this season. That's going to translate into higher scoring games than the oddsmaker believes - at least at this beginning stage. The Cardinals scored 109 points in an exhibition game. | |||||||
04-02-16 | Villanova v. Oklahoma OVER 143.5 | Top | 95-51 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The total on this Final Four matchup opened 150. Now look where it is at. Is the oddsmaker that far off? He shouldn't be. Not in a game of this magnitude. There are certainly key factors why the over is the right play besides what has become excellent line value now. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,160 |
Dan Kaiser | $1,039 |
Tom Macrina | $650 |
Ray Monohan | $618 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Jesse Schule | $418 |
Big Al McMordie | $350 |
Marc Lawrence | $300 |
Mike Lundin | $293 |
Joseph D'Amico | $268 |