Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-04-23 | Kansas v. Iowa State -2.5 | 28-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
Kansas is coming off one of its biggest football victories in school history having upset Oklahoma at home last Saturday. It was the Jayhawks' first home win against a Top 10 team since 1984. The fans went crazy storming the field. The victory also made the Jayhawks' bowl eligible, which is a big deal for them. | |||||||
11-04-23 | Ohio State v. Rutgers +19 | 35-16 | Push | 0 | 58 h 48 m | Show | |
Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. That's the upper tier of the Big Ten. Heading up the next tier is Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are having their best start in 11 years going 6-2, already bowl-eligible. They can stay within this number of Ohio State if not giving the Buckeyes a downright scare. | |||||||
11-04-23 | Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 45 | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Think defense here. Notre Dame has held USC to 20 points, Ohio State to 17, Duke to 14 and Pittsburgh to 7. The Irish certainly can contain Cade Klubnik. Clemson is likely to be without its best runner, Will Shipley, too. The Irish's offensive numbers have been boosted by numerous defensive scores. Clemson has had a very disappointing season. The Tigers, though, have been stout defensively ranking sixth in total defense and ninth in pass defense. | |||||||
11-02-23 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 36.5 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
Unless there's bad weather or key skill position injury concerns, this is too low of a total. The weather is going to be fine and Derrick Henry is set to play. DeAndre Hopkins is likely to suit up, too, so I'm going Over. | |||||||
11-01-23 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
I find excellent value getting Bowling Green at home laying less than a touchdown to Ball State. | |||||||
10-30-23 | Raiders v. Lions -8 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 43 h 6 m | Show |
Both the Raiders and Lions were humbled last week. The Lions were destroyed, 38-6, by the Ravens while the Raiders were embarrassed by the Bears, 30-12, who were giving rookie QB Tyson Bagent his first NFL start. | |||||||
10-29-23 | Bears v. Chargers OVER 46.5 | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 33 m | Show | |
This sets up as a get-well game for Justin Herbert, who has had a disappointing season given his high bar. The Bears defense turned dreadful after the team dealt star linebacker Roquan Smith and pass rusher Robert Quinn at midseason last year. | |||||||
10-29-23 | Rams v. Cowboys OVER 45.5 | 20-43 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
Dak Prescott is off his best game of the season. The Cowboys' offensive line is as healthy as it has been all season and getting more in sync. Dallas has had two weeks to prepare, being on its bye last week. The Rams defense is mediocre at best and is stepping up in class after having just played the Steelers and Cardinals. | |||||||
10-29-23 | Vikings v. Packers +1 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
The Bears are the Packers' oldest rival. But it's the Vikings who the Packers want to beat more than any other team. It has been that way for years. The spot sets up perfect for Green Bay to do just that. | |||||||
10-28-23 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech +12 | Top | 42-46 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
We saw North Carolina implode last season losing its last four games after a 9-1 start. The pattern continues this season. The Tar Heels were upset, 31-27, by visiting Virginia as a 24-point favorite last week. That halted the Tar Heels' six-game win streak to start the season and raises serious concerns about North Carolina. | |||||||
10-28-23 | Colorado v. UCLA UNDER 61.5 | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
This total is too high given UCLA's outstanding defense. The Bruins have held foes to an average of 14.9 points a game. They rate No. 2 in run defense and 12th in total defense. | |||||||
10-28-23 | Wyoming +4.5 v. Boise State | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 60 m | Show | |
A decline in recruiting and coaching is taking a toll on Boise State. The Broncos are overvalued because of their past reputation. This is such a case. | |||||||
10-27-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Charlotte UNDER 43.5 | Top | 38-16 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
There's a stand-alone college football game on Friday. That makes this dull American Athletic Conference matchup between Charlotte and Florida Atlantic significant. The marketplace has been active, betting the total up. | |||||||
10-23-23 | 49ers -6.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-22 | Loss | -115 | 117 h 44 m | Show |
The Vikings played their first game without Justin Jefferson this past Sunday. They managed only 220 yards of total offense, reaching the red zone just once. Yet they managed to win because they were playing the Bears, who had lost Justin Fields to injury during the game. | |||||||
10-22-23 | Dolphins v. Eagles -145 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 44 h 47 m | Show | |
Unless the Eagles were at full strength, I was going to stay away from this matchup. But, now, after seeing Friday's updated injury report, I'm backing Philadelphia. All of the key Eagles who were banged-up, are expected to play. That means offensive tackle Lane Johnson, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Godert, defensive tackle Jalen Carter and Darius Slay. The Dolphins are the talk of the NFL leading the league by a wide margin in points and yards. But the Eagles are stronger in the trenches and aren't too shabby either when it comes to putting up points ranking No. 2 in total yards, second in rushing and fifth in scoring. The Eagles are 5-1 and have yet to play to their capabilities. Miami also is 5-1. The Dolphins' five wins have come against foes with a combined record of 5-24. Miami's great offensive numbers are skewed by its 70-20 home victory against the 1-5 Broncos. Philadelphia has the better defense with elite pass rushers. Slay being back is huge for the secondary. Carter could be the Defensive Rookie of the Year. Tua Tagovailoa is not mobile and he'll be dealing with a weather element he's not used to - a night game in Philadelphia with wind in the 12-15 mph range. Only once have the Dolphins had a step-up game this season. It didn't turn out well for them. The Bills crushed the Dolphins, 48-20. | |||||||
10-22-23 | Chargers +5.5 v. Chiefs | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 9 m | Show | |
The Chargers are a frustrating team to get behind because of Brandon Staley's perplexing on-field decisions. But there are two things you can say about the Chargers: They possess a lot of talent and they keep games close. LA hasn't lost a game by more than three points during its last 11 games. Kansas City went 2-0 versus the Chargers last season. Each win was by three points. The Chiefs' offense is worse this season and the Chargers are improved. The Chargers are averaging 25.4 points and have only three turnovers. The Chiefs are averaging 24.5 points and have turned the ball over nine times. If you discount a 41-10 win against the hapless Bears, the Chiefs would be averaging 21.2 points in their last five games. Patrick Mahomes and his merry band of mediocre wide receivers have yet to get in sync. Mahomes is frustrated with them. Who can blame him? Kansas City's defense has played much better than LA's. However, the Chiefs have just played four bad-to-mediocre offenses - the Bears, Jets, Vikings, in which Justin Jefferson suffered an injury, and Broncos. The Chargers' defense is getting better as they get healthier with the return of star safety Derwin James and linebacker Erick Kendricks. The Chargers have 21 sacks in their last four games. Their defense is ascending, while the Chiefs' defense goes against the best quarterback, Justin Herbert, they have faced all season. | |||||||
10-22-23 | Steelers v. Rams OVER 43.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 46 m | Show | |
Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp are up to their old dominant ways. The Rams' wide receiving corps is at peak efficiency right now with the emergence of rookie Puka Nacua and vast improvement shown by Tutu Atwell. | |||||||
10-22-23 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -7 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 88 h 28 m | Show | |
The Seahawks had won three in a row, including beating the Lions, until losing to the Bengals this past Sunday. Look for the Seahawks to get back on the winning track here. They beat the Cardinals twice last season, each time by 10 points. The Cardinals are worse this season and the Seahawks have gotten healthier in their secondary and offensive line. I see another double-digit victory by Seattle. Arizona ranks in the bottom-six defensively in the two most important categories, points allowed and yards given up. The Seahawks can open their offense now more for Geno Smith with their starting tackles back in action. Joshua Dobbs is a very limited QB. He's especially ineffective without the Cardinals' one decent running back, injured James Conner. Dobbs has completed fewer than 50 percent of his throws during the past couple of games. This is really egregious because he rarely throws downfield. He's averaged just 5.5 yards per pass attempt during this span and has more interceptions than TD passes. Seattle's defense could really come on with cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen along with the return of dominant safety Jamal Adams to shore up the secondary. | |||||||
10-22-23 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 41 | 25-29 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 3 m | Show | |
The Patriots have the second-worst scoring offense in the NFL at 12 points a game. It's not just bad turnovers from Mac Jones. New England's battered offensive line is terrible and the skill position players are below par especially at wide receiver. Buffalo has key defensive injuries. The Bills, however, are deep on defense and can handle weak offenses. Buffalo held Las Vegas to 10 points, Washington to three points and the Giants to nine points. The Bills have struggled to get in rhythm offensively the past two weeks averaging just 17 points against the Jaguars and Giants. Josh Allen may not be 100 percent. The Patriots are well-coached defensively. They rank 10th in defensive total yards. This is an intense division rivalry matchup. Points will be at a premium. Weather could factor, too. Heavy wind is in the forecast with a chance of rain. | |||||||
10-22-23 | Lions v. Ravens -155 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 84 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm not sold on the Lions playing their second consecutive road game on grass. The Ravens' defense is extremely intimidating at home. The Ravens surrender the second-fewest yards per game and fourth-fewest points per game. | |||||||
10-22-23 | Lions v. Ravens UNDER 42.5 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 52 m | Show |
Take the Lions out of their dome. Put them on a grass field in windy conditions against an elite defense and they are not going to put up fancy numbers. | |||||||
10-21-23 | Tennessee v. Alabama UNDER 48.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 9 m | Show | |
Don't look for a repeat of last year's 52-49 Tennessee victory over Alabama. The quarterbacks were Bryce Young and Hendon Hooker for that game. Jalen Milroe and Joe Milton are nowhere near the caliber of their respective predecessors. The Volunteers rank 88th in passing yards. Milton has a big arm, but lacks accuracy. Alabama ranks among the top-15 teams in giving up the fewest points and yards per game. The Crimson Tide have huge revenge motivation. Milroe has emerged as Alabama's best QB this season. But he's not a star. The Crimson Tide's offense is down from past seasons. Alabama ranks 87th in total offense. Milroe has been sacked 19 times during the last four games. Tennessee's defense ranks in the top-18 in fewest yards and points per game. | |||||||
10-21-23 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia -3.5 | 48-34 | Loss | -104 | 40 h 56 m | Show | |
If Houston didn't hit on a Hail Mary on the final play last week against West Virginia, the Mountaineers may have been a heavier favorite than they are now. That 41-39 loss to Houston halted the Mountaineers' four-game win and covering streak. | |||||||
10-21-23 | Minnesota +4 v. Iowa | Top | 12-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 36 m | Show |
This is the lowest football total of the season. So taking more than a field goal where points are going to be at an absolute premium certainly makes sense. | |||||||
10-21-23 | Air Force v. Navy +10.5 | 17-6 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
It's a simple rule when two service academies play one another, think Under and underdog, especially when the number is at double-digits like it is here. | |||||||
10-21-23 | Central Florida +17.5 v. Oklahoma | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
Oklahoma may not be that sharp coming out of its bye having defeated arch-rival Texas in its previous game, 34-30, on a touchdown in the final minute. The Sooners still might be celebrating. UCF also is coming off a bye. The extra time allowed dual threat QB John Rhys Plumlee to get healthy after missing most of the last four games. He makes a difference for UCF. The Knights are familiar with Sooners' star QB Dillon Gabriel, who played for UCF from 2019-21. The Knights actually average more yards per game than Oklahoma. | |||||||
10-19-23 | Jaguars v. Saints UNDER 40 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 54 m | Show |
The Saints are a dead nuts Under team. They have gone Under in 15 of their last 16 games, including all six this season. They've played 12 straight games where the combined score was below 40 points. Jacksonville has a strong run defense ranking No. 3, but its offense has been disappointing. Trevor Lawrence has been decent but not great and is banged-up. So he may not be 100 percent especially given the short week. The Saints' passing attack has been a disappointment with Derek Carr. The Saints also sustained several offensive line injuries this past Sunday. New Orleans is averaging just 18.2 points a game. | |||||||
10-17-23 | Western Kentucky -7.5 v. Jacksonville State | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Schedule matters. So does quarterback injuries. Factor these elements in and Western Kentucky is worthy of a play. | |||||||
10-15-23 | Giants +15.5 v. Bills | 9-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 9 m | Show | |
I know the Giants are a hard sell even though this is the largest point spread of the season. Daniel Jones is out. So is left tackle Andrew Thomas, the team's best offensive lineman. I don't expect Saquon Barkley to return for this game either. But the Bills aren't without key injuries either. They will be missing three important defensive players: linebacker Matt Milano, cornerback Tre'Davious White and nose tackle DaQuan Jones. The Giants have veteran Tyrod Taylor to fill in for Jones. He's a journeyman. But his mobility and experience make him one of the better backup quarterbacks. There are three other factors as to why the Giants can stay within two TD's. At 1-4, the Giants are in desperate shape. They really can't take a loss here. The Bills have a division game up next against the Patriots on the road. They don't want to show anything new to Bill Belichick so they'll be as vanilla as possible. The Bills are returning from London. Any American who has flown to London and back realizes it takes at least a few days to fully get over jet lag. So there is the real possibility of the Bills being flat for this contest. Then there's the Brian Daboll angle. He was the Bills' popular and effective offensive coordinator before taking the Giants job last year. Daboll doesn't want to be embarrassed on national TV with this being the Sunday night game. I doubt that Sean McDermott and Josh Allen run up a score on their buddy Daboll. | |||||||
10-15-23 | Patriots +3 v. Raiders | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -115 | 43 h 16 m | Show |
You have to go back to Bill Belichick's first year as head coach of the Patriots in 2000 to find New England this bad. The Patriots have hit rock bottom losing by a combined, 72-3, to the Cowboys and Saints during the last two weeks. So I'm buying as low as possible on the Patriots as they drop way down in class to face the Raiders. Las Vegas has yet to break 18 points in a game. The Raiders are on a short week in a letdown spot after beating the Packers at home on Monday night. Belichick has lost a lot of his coaching luster during the past couple of seasons. But he's still miles ahead of Josh McDaniels when it comes to coaching. McDaniels seems to make mistakes in crucial on-the-field decisions every game. The Patriots are going to run the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott while Mac Jones mixes in a few short passes. This is the right game plan to attack a Raiders defense that guards against the long ball and heavily relies on Maxx Crosby to create havoc. Belichick is familiar with Jimmy Garoppolo having coached him when Garoppolo was in New England. Belichick can exploit Garoppolo's many weaknesses. Garoppolo leads in the NFL in interceptions with seven despite missing a game. The Raiders rank last in rushing, 30th in scoring and 29th in total yards. | |||||||
10-15-23 | Saints v. Texans UNDER 42.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 31 m | Show | |
Dennis Allen isn't a very good head coach. But he's an elite defensive coach. The Saints have turned into a dead nuts Under team with Allen. | |||||||
10-15-23 | Commanders v. Falcons -135 | 24-16 | Loss | -135 | 44 h 60 m | Show | |
Maybe the Commanders get things turned around - although I have no confidence in Ron Rivera - but until there is evidence of that, they remain a team to fade. Washington has lost three in a row with the latest being, 40-20, to the previously winless Bears at home. | |||||||
10-15-23 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 24-16 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 46 m | Show | |
Lots of dropped passes and six lost fumbles have skewed the Ravens' offensive numbers. But Baltimore remains aggressive in its new passing-oriented offense. Lamar Jackson is comfortable and likes this new aggressive approach. He's completing a career-best 69.9 percent of his throws despite Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman dropping way too many balls. Those two are too good to keep doing that. | |||||||
10-14-23 | San Diego State -5.5 v. Hawaii | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 73 h 48 m | Show | |
Having had their last four games against Air Force, Boise State, Oregon State and UCLA, the San Diego State Aztecs are stepping way down in class. Hawaii was picked to finish 10th out of 12 teams in the Mountain West Conference in the preseason media poll and so far the Rainbow Warriors have lived up to those low projections. They have played one Mountain West game and were blown out, 44-20, by UNLV. San Diego State has one of the top tight ends in the Mountain West, Mark Redman, and one of the best dual kickers in the country, Jack Browning. The Aztecs hold major edges against the Rainbow Warriors at tight end, special teams and in running the ball. According to the ESPN Special Teams Efficiency metric, San Diego State fields the 19th-best special teams while Hawaii ranks 124th. San Diego State has a history of defensive improvement as the season goes on. Hawaii ranks last in the country in rushing. That puts a lot of pressure on Rainbow Warriors QB Brayden Schager and he's turnover-prone with seven interceptions. The Aztecs are far from explosive. But they are facing a defense that has only come up with one takeaway, gives up nearly 35 points per game and ranks 108th in rush defense. San Diego State has defeated Hawaii during each of the past three seasons. | |||||||
10-14-23 | UCLA v. Oregon State UNDER 54.5 | 24-36 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 55 m | Show | |
No opponent has scored more than 17 points on UCLA. The Bruins have played two Pac-12 opponents and both games were very low-scoring with Utah winning, 14-7, and UCLA beating Washington State, 25-17, last week. Look for that same pattern here. The Bruins are significantly better on defense this season leading the conference in total defense, rush defense and opponents yards per play. Oregon State QB DJ Uiagalelei disappointed at Clemson. He's done better at Oregon State, but is far from being an elite quarterback. He has not seen a pass rush as good as UCLA's. The Bruins have 18 sacks and 116 pressures in five games. The Beavers have gone against some high octane offenses, but still rank in the top 30 in total defense and are 16th in run defense. Chip Kelly continues to baby highly-touted freshman QB Dante Moore. I expect Kelly will have a conservative game plan here being on the road as Moore has given up pick-sixes to both Utah and Washington State. | |||||||
10-14-23 | UCLA +3.5 v. Oregon State | 24-36 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 54 m | Show | |
I trust UCLA's defense to keep them in this game if not prove instrumental in the Bruins upsetting Oregon State. UCLA is surrendering just 12.2 points a game. Defensive end Laiatu Latu, perhaps the premier pass rusher in the country, and linebacker Darius Muasau have a combined nine of the Bruins' 18 sacks. UCLA has recorded 44 tackles for a loss. This is in just five games, too. Oregon State has permitted 30 tackles for a loss. The Bruins rank No. 3 against the run. They can bottle up Oregon State's two good running backs, Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick, forcing DJ Uiagalelei to beat them. I don't believe Uiagalelei is a good enough quarterback to do that. Oregon State just put up 52 points on California. That might have caused some line inflation here because I believe UCLA is the better team. | |||||||
10-14-23 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech OVER 56.5 | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 52 h 47 m | Show | |
Kansas State has a top-25 offense in yards and scoring, averaging 35.8 points. Texas Tech averages 34.2 points and has a stud running back, Tahj Brooks. He's the fifth-leading rusher in the nation. | |||||||
10-14-23 | Kansas State +2 v. Texas Tech | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
I want Kansas State going for me following a 29-21 road loss to Oklahoma State as an 11 1/2-point favorite last week. Will Howard had his worst game throwing three interceptions against the Cowboys. He's much better than that, a grade above Texas Tech backup QB Behren Morton. The Red Raiders rank 94th in pass defense. I'm looking for a strong comeback performance from Howard. | |||||||
10-14-23 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -9.5 | 15-6 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 40 m | Show | |
Both teams are strong defensively. But Iowa doesn't have enough offense to stay within double-digits of Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes were 132nd in yards per game at 249.2 and now have to go with backup QB Deacon Hill after starting QB Cade McNamara suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. Hill couldn't win the starting job at Wisconsin before transferring to Iowa. He's a step down from the mediocre McNamara. Iowa has the third-worst passing attack in the country. | |||||||
10-14-23 | Troy v. Army UNDER 42.5 | 19-0 | Win | 100 | 45 h 25 m | Show | |
Two below average offensive teams with a bad weather element should spell Under in this Troy-Army matchup. There were only 19 points scored in Troy's 10-9 victory versus Army last year. Just two teams play at a slower tempo than the run-oriented Black Knights. Troy ranks 15th in total defense and 12th in run defense. Army isn't going to suddenly open up with a passing attack especially with the forecast being for steady rain to fall. During its last two games, Troy held Georgia State to seven points - 24 points below its average - and Arkansas State to three points, which is 19 points below its average. The Trojans have a below average offensive line. The Trojans also have turned the ball over eight times in six games. Army has a top-40 defense. | |||||||
10-13-23 | Tulane v. Memphis UNDER 55 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
Tulane and Memphis certainly are capable of big-scoring games. But I don't see it happening in this matchup. | |||||||
10-12-23 | Broncos +10.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 8-19 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
This is a lot of points to lay in a division matchup for the Chiefs. Aside from walloping the Bears, the Chiefs haven't looked that sharp offensively. Discount that Bears game and the Chiefs are averaging 21.7 points in their four other games. | |||||||
10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
Pure and simple, wrong team favored. And that's figuring Davante Adams is going to play for the Raiders against his former team. The Raiders won't even have much of a home field advantage as the Packers travel well. There will be plenty of cheeseheads at Allegiant Stadium. Jordan Love should have his major weapons back. Green Bay also is expected to have its entire starting offensive line on the field with the exception of left tackle David Bakhtiari. Love is set to shine facing a Raiders defense that gives up a 108.2 passer rating and has multiple injuries in their secondary. Las Vegas has some star power with Adams, Josh Jacobs and Maxx Crosby, a top-five pass rusher. But the Raiders' supplemental talent is well below par and they are poorly coached. Some consider Jimmy Garoppolo to be an average NFL quarterback. I find him to be below average. Despite missing last week while in concussion protocol, Garoppolo has thrown six interceptions in three games. The Raiders have lost three in a row. They entered this week with an NFL-worst minus-nine turnover ratio, while also ranking among the worst on third down and in the red zone on both sides of the ball. The Packers are no longer Super Bowl contenders without Aaron Rodgers. But they are a seven-to-nine win team, which puts them a level higher than the Raiders. | |||||||
10-08-23 | Cowboys v. 49ers -3.5 | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 24 m | Show | |
If home field is worth 3 points then the oddsmaker is saying San Francisco is barely better than Dallas. | |||||||
10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 16 m | Show | |
Perhaps this is nitpicking because the Eagles are unbeaten after all. But they haven't looked very good at least compared to last season. | |||||||
10-08-23 | Bengals -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 76 h 22 m | Show |
I'm buying low on the Bengals. This is a circle-the-wagons game for them. A loss to the Cardinals would put Cincinnati at 1-4 with its next three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills.
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10-08-23 | Titans v. Colts OVER 43 | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 37 m | Show | |
I get that the Titans are considered an Under team. But the Colts rank 29th in total defense and struggle against Derrick Henry, who has topped 100 yards rushing against Indy in six of the past seven meetings. The lone time he didn't reach that figure was when he suffered a broken foot. | |||||||
10-08-23 | Ravens v. Steelers +4.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 14 m | Show | |
It has been seven games since the Ravens beat the Steelers by more than a field goal. Pittsburgh, in fact, has won five of its last six meetings against Baltimore. The Steelers have their bye next week. They certainly don't want to enter it on a two-game losing streak after an embarrassing, 30-6, road loss to the Texans last Sunday. Baltimore is at its worst laying points - 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when favored. Pittsburgh is at its best as a home underdog - 16-5-3 ATS the last 24 times. The Steelers have covered 64 percent of the time under Mike Tomlin when receiving points at home going 51-28-4 ATS. The 3-1 Ravens are trying to establish themselves early as the team to beat in the AFC North already owning division road victories against the Bengals and Browns. Right now, though, the Ravens aren't that good despite their record. The Ravens beat the Texans opening week at home when C.J. Stroud was making his NFL debut behind a makeshift offensive line. Baltimore then beat the Bengals in Week 2 when Joe Burrow wasn't 100 percent and the Bengals were in a down mode. Then came an upset road loss to the Colts, who were quarterbacked by backup Gardner Minshew. The Ravens then caught a monster break last Sunday when Deshaun Watson was a late scratch forcing the Browns to use untested rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who found out the hard way that regular season is vastly different than preseason. Lamar Jackson is playing well. But the Ravens have been dealing with a cluster injury problem in their offensive line, running back and secondary. The Steelers have a strong history of defending Jackson well. Jackson has never scored a rushing TD against the Steelers and has a 4-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio versus Pittsburgh. T.J. Watt is back to his dominant pass rushing self tied for the NFL lead in sacks with six. I'm fine no matter who is behind center for Pittsburgh. Kenny Pickett would be an inspiration after getting knocked out last week with a knee injury, while backup Mitch Trubisky would provide a running threat the Steelers don't have with Pickett. | |||||||
10-07-23 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss OVER 62 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 18 m | Show | |
It's not just recent history why I like the Over here. There were 69 points scored in last year's game and 103 points scored in the matchup two seasons ago. It's not just that arguably the two best running backs in the country will be playing, Arkansas' Raheim Sanders and Mississippi's Quinshon Judkins. It's not just that there also are two excellent QB's, the Razorbacks' KJ Jefferson and Old Miss' Jaxson Dart, who accounted for five TD's and 439 of the Rebels' 706 total yards in a 55-49 victory against LSU last week. No, the biggest factor why I like the Over is that neither team gives up the ball. Both teams have only one turnover. | |||||||
10-07-23 | South Alabama v. UL-Monroe +10.5 | 55-7 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 31 m | Show | |
Just because South Alabama beat a mediocre Oklahoma State on the road doesn't mean the Jaguars are any good. | |||||||
10-07-23 | South Florida v. UAB OVER 68 | Top | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 101 h 32 m | Show |
South Florida's Byrun Brown is one of the nation's more underrated dual threat quarterbacks. The Bulls are really starting to click under new coach Alex Golesh with Brown operating the offense at the fifth-fastest pace in the country. | |||||||
10-07-23 | Kent State v. Ohio UNDER 45.5 | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm not sure Kent State even gets a point here. The Golden Flashes average fewer than 13 points a game and are taking on an Ohio defense that gives up just 8.5 points per game. The Bobcats have been even better than that in their last three games holding Florida Atlantic, Iowa State and Bowling Green to an average of 5.6 points if you discount a defensive touchdown scored by Florida Atlantic. Ohio doesn't have an explosive offense. The Bobcats are conservative relying on their defense. They average just 21 points a game and rank in the bottom-12 in yards per play. Note, too, that heavy wind is in the forecast. | |||||||
10-07-23 | Washington State +3.5 v. UCLA | 17-25 | Loss | -113 | 48 h 20 m | Show | |
Washington State seems on a mission to win the last Pac-12 football championship as we know the league to be. Maybe it's because the Cougars are one of just four teams left in the Pac-12 after the league will break up starting next season. | |||||||
10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
The Bears showed signs of finding their offensive identity this past Sunday in a 31-28 home loss to the Broncos. But their defense remains horrible. It's a prime reason why the Over has cashed in all four of Chicago's games this season. | |||||||
10-05-23 | Sam Houston State v. Liberty -19 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
To say Sam Houston State is struggling transitioning into the FCS would be an understatement. The Bearkats are 0-5 and have by far the worst offense in the nation averaging 9.5 points and 219.8 yards a game. | |||||||
10-04-23 | Jacksonville State v. Middle Tennessee State -3 | Top | 45-30 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
Jacksonville State is 4-1 while Middle Tennessee State is 1-4. Yet the Blue Raiders are the favorites. | |||||||
10-02-23 | Seahawks -120 v. Giants | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
It comes down to this. The Seahawks are at least a tier better than the Giants. New York isn't very good right now. The Giants are lucky to be 1-2 having led for the grand total of 19 seconds this season. Seattle gets back one of its top defensive players, versatile safety Jamal Adams, while the Giants are likely to be missing two of their three best offensive players with left tackle Andrew Thomas ruled out and Saquon Barkley doubtful with an ankle injury. Since laying an egg against the Rams opening week, the Seahawks have beaten the Lions on the road and Panthers. Seattle scored 37 points in each of those wins. I like the Seahawks' skill position players much better than the Giants especially if Barkley is a no-good. The Giants will have a different offensive line for the fourth time in four weeks. They rank in the bottom-four in points, total yards and passing yards. Daniel Jones has been sacked an average of four times per game. New York is equally bad on defense. The Giants have no takeaways. They rank in the bottom-five in scoring defense and run defense. I expect emerging star Kenneth Walker III to have a big rushing game thus setting up Geno Smith for effective play-action passes. The teams met in Seattle last season. The Seahawks won, 27-13. The Seahawks have a fantastic record in prime-time games under Pete Carroll going 33-14-1 for 70 percent. Seattle won't be holding anything back either being idle this week following this game. | |||||||
10-01-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Jets | 23-20 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
No matter how good of a defense you have, it doesn't matter if your offense can't score. The Jets' offense has generated three TD's in three games with Zach Wilson. That's not going to cut it against many teams. Certainly not against the high-powered defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes deservedly gets all the attention. But quietly the Chiefs' defense has emerged as a very good stop unit. Kansas City is giving up only 13.3 points per game having faced the Lions, Jaguars and Bears. The Chiefs are giving up the fourth-fewest points and seventh-fewest yards per game. Kansas City has a dominant pass rusher in Chris Jones. The Jets' offensive line hasn't been very good. But even when given time, Wilson still ranks last among qualifying quarterbacks in passer ratings when afforded decent protection. The Chiefs' attack is potent with a healthy Travis Kelce and he's back healthy. | |||||||
10-01-23 | Patriots v. Cowboys OVER 43 | 3-38 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a low total given how explosive the Cowboys can be with Dak Prescott, Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb. The key is how many points can New England come in with? Don't be surprised if the Patriots score far more than you think. The Patriots have played two of their three games in bad weather. They produced 382 yards of offense against a strong Eagles defense. New England has missed field goals and had costly turnovers inside Miami territory in its game against the Dolphins. New England has played against the Eagles and Jets already, two of the better defenses in the league. Dallas' defense took a massive hit with its star cornerback Trevon Diggs suffering a season-ending knee injury during practice last week. The Patriots' offensive line is improved with key players back. Ezekiel Elliott showed he still has some juice rushing for 80 yards against the Jets last week, averaging 5.0 yards a carry. The Cowboys surrendered 28 points and 400 yards to the Cardinals this past week. Joshua Dobbs threw for 182 yards on just 21 attempts. James Connor rushed for 98 yards while averaging 7.0 yards a carry. Mac Jones is better than Dobbs and Rhamondre Stevenson is superior to Connor. These teams have an Over history, too. They met two seasons ago and Dallas won, 35-29. While I don't expect 64 points to be scored again, it's not a daunting task for these teams to go Over this number. | |||||||
10-01-23 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | 26-9 | Loss | -120 | 92 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting Derek Carr to play. But I make no drop-off from Carr to Jameis Winston. Either of those two is better than Baker Mayfield. The Saints get Alvin Kamara back from suspension. He'll have fresh legs. Tampa Bay just yielded 201 yards rushing to the Eagles this past Monday. Note that game was played on Monday so the Buccaneers are traveling on a short week. Tampa Bay still has good defenders. But New Orleans has a very good defense. The Saints have held their last six opponents to an average of 13.3 points a game. They haven't allowed more than 20 points in their last 11 games. The Buccaneers rank 25th in total yards, 27th in rushing and third-from-last in red zone touchdown percentage. | |||||||
10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -145 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 73 h 14 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are on top of the world after their 70-20 burial of the Broncos. Miami deserves all the plaudits. Lost in the glare of the Dolphins' pin-ball attack, though, are the Bills. After losing in overtime to the fired-up Jets opening Monday night, Buffalo has gotten untracked rolling past the Raiders and Commanders by the combined score of 75-13. The Bills have defeated Miami seven straight times at home. Buffalo is 6-1 in its last seven home games, including defeating the Dolphins twice during this span. The Dolphins appear improved. But the Bills still have the better quarterback with Josh Allen and the superior defense. Miami should get back Jaylen Waddle, however, offensive left tackle Terron Armstead is likely to be out again. The Bills have the pass rushers to take advantage of that. I see this as a buy-low opportunity on the Bills because the Dolphins are off such a mind-boggling performance against an 0-3 team. | |||||||
10-01-23 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 40.5 | 28-3 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 36 m | Show | |
Yes, Jim Schwartz has made a difference as the Browns' new defensive coordinator. Cleveland's defense has improved. But I'm not buying its dominant numbers of giving up just 10.7 points a game and 163.7 yards, both of which are the best in the NFL. Consider just who the Browns have played. They met the Bengals and a rusty Joe Burrow opening week. They then faced a Steelers offense going through growing pains with second-year QB Kenny Pickett and maybe the league's worst offensive coordinator, Matt Canada. After that it was the impotent Titans, who have the worst offensive line in the NFL coupled with over-the-hill skill position players. Now the Browns draw Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has looked good running again. The Ravens' offensive line is healthy again for the first time in two weeks with left tackle Ronnie Stanley and center Tyler Linderbaum back practicing. Gus Edwards also is expected to play, giving Baltimore a legitimate power runner. Jackson has had three games to learn the Ravens' new emphasis on downfield passing. He has the best receivers he's ever had. Deshaun Watson is off his finest game since joining the Browns, completing 81.8 percent of his passes for 289 yards and two TD's against the Titans last week. He should have had a third TD throw, but the referee made a mistake blowing his whistle thinking Amari Cooper had stepped out of bounds after a catch when Cooper had not. Like Jackson, Watson has the best receivers he's ever had in his career. The totals bar is set low here. It's not asking too much for each of these teams to produce 20 points. | |||||||
10-01-23 | Broncos -3 v. Bears | Top | 31-28 | Push | 0 | 122 h 26 m | Show |
How wretched are the Bears? The winless Broncos, who just lost by 50 points, are road favorites against them. And Denver is the right side. Chicago is the worst team in the NFL right now. Worse, the Bears know it. They have dissension, multiple injuries on their offensive line and in the secondary and Justin Fields isn't on the same page with the coaching staff. As exciting as he is, Fields remains an unpolished project who is not accurate and holds the ball too long. He's been sacked 13 times. The Bears have one sack by comparison. The Broncos have looked as bad with Sean Payton as they did with Nathaniel Hackett. Maybe that should reduce Payton's considerable ego. But Payton can coach. Russell Wilson is playing better than last season and Denver's defense still is better than Chicago's. The Bears don't have nearly the speed or passing accuracy to light up the Broncos' defense the way the Dolphins did. The Bears have lost 13 straight games. They are 1-16 SU, 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games. One team finally gets back on track here - and it's not the Bears. | |||||||
09-30-23 | Troy v. Georgia State -115 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
Georgia State is staking an early claim to be the best team in the Sun Belt Conference off to a 4-0 start. The Panthers are positioned well to continue their success against Troy, which is 2-2 but has yet to cover a point spread. The Panthers are home and on extra rest having defeated Coastal Carolina last Thursday, 30-17, as a 5-point road 'dog. Troy has played just once on the road. The Trojans were blown out, 42-13, by Kansas State in that game. Georgia State has a good dual threat QB, Danny Grainger, and one of the best running backs, Marcus Carroll, in the country. Carroll is fifth in the nation in rushing yards with 508 and has scored the most rushing TD's of any running back with eight. The Panthers' defensive strength is their 23rd-ranked run defense. Troy has trouble running the ball. The teams did not meet last season. But Georgia State beat and covered against the Trojans in 2021, 2020 and 2019. The Panthers won those games by an average margin of 16 points. | |||||||
09-30-23 | Houston v. Texas Tech -8 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Houston isn't any good this season. Losses to Rice and to TCU by 23 points at home are evidence of that. Texas Tech has had three one-score losses, including one to Oregon. The Red Raiders should be able to take out their frustrations against the Cougars in what will be an emotional setting. They are honoring players and coaches into their Hall of Fame, including the late Mike Leach. I'm fine with Behren Morton taking over at QB for the Red Raiders after Tyler Shough suffered a broken leg last Saturday against West Virginia. Morton has experience having started four games last season. | |||||||
09-30-23 | Illinois v. Purdue UNDER 54 | 19-44 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a stronger defensive battle here than the oddsmaker perceives. First-year Purdue coach Ryan Walters was the defensive coordinator at Illinois before getting the Boilermakers job. He knows the Illini well. Illinois is averaging just 22.3 points, which ranks 99th. I was expecting more from Purdue QB Hudson Card, a transfer from Texas. The Boilermakers' offense has yet to fully click. Another key to making an Under work here is misleading defensive statistics. The numbers are skewed because both teams have faced three strong offenses, especially Illinois. The Illini have gone against Toledo, Kansas and Penn State. Purdue has faced Fresno State, Syracuse and Wisconsin. | |||||||
09-30-23 | Virginia v. Boston College OVER 52.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm getting involved in this total now that the marketplace has shaved off a couple of points. We have two really bad defensive teams here. Virginia is the worst defensive team in the ACC. The Cavaliers rank 127th in scoring defense allowing 37.8 points a game and are 113th in defensive total yards. Eagles QB Thomas Castellanos is in line for a big performance. He's passed for 909 yards and eight TD's while also leading the Eagles in rushing with 280 yards. Helping the Over is BC playing at a top-15 tempo. Virginia should put up its share of points no matter who the quarterback is, either strong-armed gunslinger Anthony Colandrea or Tony Muskett, who started the first game but suffered a shoulder injury. The Cavaliers have one of the better receivers in the conference in Malik Washington. He's had three straight 100-yard receiving games. | |||||||
09-30-23 | Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 44.5 | 14-33 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 15 m | Show | |
Florida coach Billy Napier did a wise thing. He brought in defensive guru Austin Armstrong from Southern Mississippi. The Gators are giving up just 13.5 points a game with Armstrong as their defensive coordinator. I don't like Kentucky's skill position talent as much as last season. The Wildcats could get exposed offensively here having played weak opponents Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt. The Gators should be able to get numerous sacks on Devin Leary, who has been picked off five times. Kentucky does have a solid defense, though, ranking in the top 20 in total defense and 10th in run defense. I'm not a fan of Florida QB Graham Mertz, who was a huge disappointment at Wisconsin before transferring to Florida. Both teams play at a very slow tempo ranking in the bottom-18 in pace. | |||||||
09-28-23 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 46 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
It's not just that both defenses have improved as to why I like the Under. Check out the injury situation. I expect Aaron Jones and Christian Watson to play for Green Bay. Jones is a major upgrade on plodding A.J. Dillon, who is an Under bettor's dream every time he carries the ball for his two yards up the middle. But don't overlook offensive line injuries. As many as five starting offensive linemen could be missing. The Packers definitely won't have their two best offensive lineman as left tackle David Bakhitari and left guard Elgton Jenkins are out. The Lions won't have right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai. Detroit also could be minus their other starting guard, Jonah Jackson, and left tackle Taylor Decker. Both Jackson and Decker are questionable. There are quarterback issues, too. Jared Goff isn't mobile and has a history of not playing as well outdoors on grass as he does inside a dome. Jordan Love has accuracy issues and is averaging just 6.8 yards a completion. Rashuan Gary is back for Green Bay. He had three sacks against the Saints last Sunday. Gary ranked tied for No. 2 in pressure percentage through the first eight games last season. But he suffered a season-ending knee injury in his ninth game and the Packers lost their pass rush without him. The Lions have a stud defensive lineman, too, in Aidan Hutchinson. Gary and Hutchinson aren't at the Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Nick Bosa top passing rushing level. But they arguably could be in the second tier of pass rushers. The Lions held the Falcons to 44 yards rushing on 20 carries last Sunday. Atlanta entered that matchup ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing at 170.5 yards per game. They had rushed for 100 yards in 18 of their previous 19 games. Detroit defensive back Brian Branch came out of that game as a potential Defensive Rookie of the Year player. Note, too, this is a division matchup on a short week. These teams know each other well and there isn't time for them to put in new wrinkles. | |||||||
09-25-23 | Eagles -4.5 v. Bucs | Top | 25-11 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
The record shows both the Eagles and Buccaneers to be 2-0. But the Buccaneers are at least two levels behind Philadelphia. The Eagles, too, are on an extra rest having played in the Week 2 Thursday game. The Eagles are due to play better as their players adjust to new coordinators. The extra rest and practice time should come in handy for them here. Tampa Bay has beaten the winless Bears and winless Vikings. The Buccaneers are plus 5 in turnover ratio during these victories. The Buccaneers' defense still has good players, but it's not great anymore. I'm not buying the early hype on Baker Mayfield either. He's looked better than he did the previous couple of seasons, but he's still Baker Mayfield with severe limitations. The Eagles not only have the edges at the skill positions - Jalen Hurts is 19-1 in his last 20 regular-season starts - but also have the advantage in the trenches. Philadelphia is the second-leading rushing team and ranks No. 1 in run defense. Mayfield isn't going to have a run game to keep the Eagles' pass rushers honest. The Eagles easily led the NFL in sacks last season with 70. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Panthers v. Seahawks OVER 42 | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 37 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a low total in today's NFL. I understand why the oddsmaker made it. The Panthers have shown nothing on offense. Seattle is missing its starting offensive tackles. However, there is more than meets the eye here as to why this total should be higher. Bryce Young hasn't moved the Carolina offense. But the rookie isn't going to play. Veteran Andy Dalton is. Look, I'm not a big Dalton fan. Never have been even when it was with the Bengals and was a decent starting QB. But Dalton is the right QB for the Panthers given Carolina's offensive limitations. Dalton is a veteran. He'll take what the defense gives him and Seattle's defense is missing cornerbacks Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant. Free safety Quandre Diggs isn't likely to play either because of a hamstring injury. Dalton can take advantage of this and provide more stability than the work-in-progress Young could. Dalton has veteran pass-catchers Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark and tight end Hayden Hurst along with promising rookie Jonathan Mingo. The Panthers will be able to move the sticks. The Seahawks got around their cluster injury problem at offensive tackle by having Geno Smith throw short. Seattle put up 37 points on the Lions on the road last week despite not having its starting offensive tackles. It's not like left tackle Charles Cross and right tackle Abe Lucas were All-Pro-caliber either. Smith has one of the better wide receiver trios in the NFL with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njiba. Kenneth Walker is an above average running back. The Panthers are missing two key defensive players with their No. 1 cornerback, Jaycee Horn, out with a hamstring injury and steady, veteran linebacker Shaq Thompson out with a leg/ankle injury. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Patriots -145 v. Jets | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 118 h 15 m | Show | |
The Patriots are in must-win mode being 0-2. Luckily they draw their favorite patsy - the Jets. New England has beaten the Jets 14 straight times. New England has held the Jets to an average of 9.7 points during the last four games. New York might not reach 10 points again with a porous offensive line and Zach Wilson back at quarterback. Bill Belichick scheming against a Wilson-led offense is a monster mismatch. The Jets can keep deceiving themselves, but the truth is Wilson is a stiff, a colossal draft bust. Wilson faced a strong defense last week. He had a 38.1 quarterback rating against the Cowboys. Already, Wilson has been intercepted four times. New England's offense is far from dynamic, but it's improved enough to produce 17-to-20 points here. That would be enough given the Jets' impotent attack. So look for the Patriots to make it 15 wins in a row against the Jets. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Texans v. Jaguars -7.5 | 37-17 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 33 m | Show | |
The Jaguars beat the Colts by 10 points opening week despite Indy getting a gift defensive TD. The Colts then defeated the Texans by 11 points in Week 2 in a game that was more lopsided than the final score. Now the Jaguars get the Texans. The oddsmaker and marketplace are down on Jacksonville, though, because of its poor performance against the Chiefs at home last week. But now the Jaguars don't have to worry about Patrick Mahomes or Chris Jones. I see a strong bounce-back effort from the Jaguars at home against a depleted Texans squad. Trevor Lawrence and Calvin Ridley are in for a big game against the Texans, who have a cluster injury problem in their secondary. Out for the Texans are their top cornerback, Derek Stingley, free safety Jalen Pitre and nickel back Tavierre Thomas. Also hurt and out is Denzel Perryman, one of Houston's better linebackers. Houston also has multiple injuries in its offensive line. They may get star left tackle Laremy Tunsil back from a knee injury, but remain without three other projected opening day offensive line starters. The Jaguars' defense is underrated. They gave up 14 points to the Colts' offense and held the Chiefs to 17 points. The Jaguars also have five takeaways, bad news for turnover-prone rookie QB C.J. Stroud. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Falcons v. Lions OVER 46 | 6-20 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 13 m | Show | |
Detroit's Ford Field indoor dome is the football equivalent of Colorado's Coors Field when it comes to high scoring. I have to seriously look Over when there's a Lions home game and the total is less than a key 47. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lions' last 11 home games. I'm not sold on Detroit's so-called defensive improvement, nor its run defense. The Lions faced mediocre rushing teams Kansas City and Seattle in their first two games. Now they get the Falcons, a top-three rushing team with the second-best all-around running back in the NFL, Bijan Robinson. Yes, Robinson already has established himself as that and he could soon overtake Christian McCaffrey as the best. The Lions may choose to load the box to key on the Falcons' ground attack. That would be risky, though, even against Desmond Ridder because Detroit has a clustery injury problem in its secondary. Out are safeties Kerby Joseph, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley. Gardner-Johnson is an underrated player. The Lions' defense isn't nearly adequate enough to withstand multiple injuries. Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. He's averaged more than two TD's per game at home. David Montgomery isn't likely to play for Detroit. That's not necessarily a bad thing for the Over. Montgomery is a North-South runner who eats clock with his inside running. Minus Montgomery the Lions could make exciting rookie Jahmyr Gibbs their featured back. Gibbs has been underutilized at this early stage of the season. | |||||||
09-24-23 | Saints v. Packers -125 | Top | 17-18 | Win | 100 | 118 h 34 m | Show |
This spot sets up well for Green Bay. The Packers are mad after blowing a double-digit lead to the Falcons this past Sunday. This is their first home game. New Orleans goes on the road for a second straight week. The Saints have to travel on a short week after holding off Carolina this past Monday night. The early returns on Jordan Love are positive. Love enters this week tied for the most passing TD's in the league with six. The Saints have a new starting QB, too, Derek Carr. He hasn't made a major impact. New Orleans is averaging 18 points a game, which ranks 25th. The Packers have an improved defense and the Saints are likely to be down to third-string running back Tony Jones with Alvin Kamara suspended and Jamaal Williams injuring his hamstring against Carolina. The Saints are 2-0 having beaten the Titans and Panthers by a combined four points. They are an indoor, carpet team coming to Lambeau Field and its grass field. Matt LaFleur is a perfect 5-0 when the Packers have met an unbeaten opponent. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Iowa +14.5 v. Penn State | 0-31 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
Penn State is getting a lot of love so far this season. Too much in my view given this inflated point spread. Iowa is improved at quarterback. Its defense remains first-rate and I give a checkmark in coaching to the Hawkeyes in a matchup of Kirk Ferentz versus James Franklin. Penn State hasn't faced a defense the caliber of Iowa's yet this season. The Nittany Lions also haven't beaten Iowa by more than six points during the last six seasons. The teams didn't meet last year. Iowa defeated Penn State in 2021 and 2020. The Hawkeyes are 7-2 ATS the last nine times they've been a road 'dog during the regular season. No argument that Penn State has the superior skill position. But the Hawkeyes are always tough in the trenches and they are upgraded at QB this season with the transfer of former Michigan QB Cade McNamara. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Ohio State v. Notre Dame UNDER 55.5 | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the best wide receiver in college football. Sam Hartman is in the Heisman Trophy discussion especially if Notre Dame wins this game. Early marketplace activity has been on the Over knowing these two skill position superstars are playing. I see it differently. I look at how strong these two defenses are and find this total to be too high. Ohio State is giving up an average of 6.6 points in its three games. The Buckeyes just held Western Kentucky's Austin Reed to 207 passing yards and one TD. Reed is the FBS active career leader in passing yards. Reed isn't Hartman, but he's still darn good. Notre Dame ranks ninth in the country in fewest points allowed. Only 15 teams give up fewer yards per game than Notre Dame. I have questions about Ohio State's offense at this stage of the season. The Buckeyes' offensive line hasn't looked that good. Neither has their ground attack. QB Kyle McCord is unproven against this caliber of opponent. If McCord was that good, he would have been named the starting QB going into the season rather than three games into the year. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Duke v. Connecticut UNDER 45.5 | 41-7 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 29 m | Show | |
Duke showed how strong it is defensively holding Clemson to seven points. Connecticut doesn't have the weapons to seriously challenge the Blue Devils defense. The Huskies, who are on their second quarterback, average only 15 points and 314 yards. Duke has the No. 5 run defense in the country. Connecticut allowed nine tackles for losses during their 24-17 loss to FIU last week. The Blue Devils are more of a grind-out team rather than explosive. This is their first road game. They have Notre Dame on deck. So the Blue Devils aren't likely to show this weak opponent any wrinkles in their playbook saving any trick plays for Notre Dame. Duke is going to be ground-oriented and doing it at a slow pace. Weather could factor, too, in limiting the score. Rain and heavy winds are in the forecast. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -6.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 64 h 47 m | Show | |
Alabama has won 103 out of 112 home games under Nick Saban for 92 percent. It's rare to find the Crimson Tide such a small favorite at home. You have to go back eight years to find the last time Alabama was such a small home favorite. But the Crimson Tide lost a lot of public support when they were upset at home by Texas. I see this as a buy-low spot on Alabama. The Crimson Tide still are loaded at nearly every position and Saban made the right move to go back to Jalen Milroe as his starting QB. Milroe is better than Tyler Buchner. Mississippi's 3-0 record looks good on paper. But the Rebels have played a fairly weak schedule - Mercer, Tulane and Georgia Tech. The Crimson Tide has dominated the Rebels, beating them by an average of more than 33 points per game during the past six meetings. | |||||||
09-23-23 | Miami-FL v. Temple UNDER 47 | 41-7 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 27 m | Show | |
At first glance this total may look right given how well Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke is playing and the threat Temple poses through the air thanks to E.J. Warner, son of Hall of Fame QB Kurt Warner. But look at the weather forecast. It's grim to say the least: 90 percent chance of rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-30 mph range. The 20th-ranked Hurricanes aren't thrilled to be traveling to Philadelphia for their first road game. Miami isn't going to show much against this lowly opponent. The Hurricanes play slow - only six teams go at a slower tempo - and will just want to get this game to finish fast. Temple has been good against the pass ranking 23rd in pass defense. Miami ranks in the top-20 in fewest yards allowed per game. Temple only averages 24 points a game and that's going against weak competition in Akron, Rutgers and FCS Norfolk State. Warner is off to a slow start and the Owls rank 87th in rushing. | |||||||
09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 53 | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 65 h 31 m | Show |
Wisconsin is more balanced on offense, but weaker on defense. Purdue is weak defensively. So look for a higher total than what the oddsmaker has projected. The Boilermakers are surrendering 30.3 points a game and rank 108th in total defense. SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai is Wisconsin's best QB since Russell Wilson. One thing that hasn't changed about the Badgers is having a star running back. That's Braelon Allen. But he's not even the Badgers' leading rusher. Chez Mellusi is. He and Allen are averaging a combined 174 yards rushing a game. They each have four TD's. Purdue hasn't faced this good of an offense having played Fresno State, Virginia Tech and Syracuse. The Boilermakers aren't going to get many stops. But the Badgers are going to encounter their own defense struggles trying to contain QB Hudson Card as their secondary is way down from past seasons. Wisconsin ranks 115th in pass defense. Georgia Southern QB Davis Brin threw for 383 yards against Wisconsin last week. Card is better than Brin. Both teams play at a faster than average tempo, too. | |||||||
09-21-23 | Giants v. 49ers -9.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 86 h 45 m | Show |
Through the first six quarters of their season, the Giants were outscored, 60-0. They regrouped to pull out a 31-28 victory against the Cardinals - the worst team in the NFL. Scoring 31 points in the second half to pull out that road victory in the Arizona desert has to take a lot out of the Giants both physically and mentally. They lost their superstar running back, Saquan Barkley, to an ankle injury, too, in that win. The NFL did the Giants no favor by making them the road team for a Thursday game against the 49ers, who are one of the three-best teams in the NFL. I don't see how the Giants can stay within single-digits of the 49ers given the short-week circumstances and the quality of the defenses. Brock Purdy is 10-0 in games he has started and finished for the 49ers. The Giants surrendered four TD's and nearly 400 yards to the pop-gun offense of the Cardinals. Now they go from Joshua Dobbs and his cast of grunts to Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk backed by a real coaching staff. Daniel Jones needs weapons to be successful. He won't have his main one, Barkley. His wide receivers don't frighten anyone least of all the 49ers. This one isn't going to be close. | |||||||
09-21-23 | Georgia State +7 v. Coastal Carolina | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
The oddsmaker may know the Power-5 conferences well, but he got this Sun Belt Conference matchup wrong. Coastal Carolina should not be nearly as high as a TD favorite against Georgia State. I downgraded Coastal Carolina with the coaching change from respected Jamey Chadwell to first-year head man Tim Beck. The Chanticleers have had one of the better QB's in the league with Grayson McCall. But so far McCall hasn't been playing as well as he has in the past. He's been picked off twice and sacked seven times. Coastal Carolina is one-dimensional averaging an unimpressive 3.8 yards on the ground. Georgia State thrives on turnovers and is strong at quarterback and running back. The Panthers are 3-0. They've averaged more than two takeaways per game during their last 15 games and have already forced seven turnovers this season. Panthers QB Darren Grainger has a 6-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing 73.4 percent of his passes. Grainger and stud running back Marcus Carroll have combined to rush for 574 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. Coastal Carolina ranks 111th in run defense allowing 174 yards on the ground per game. | |||||||
09-18-23 | Saints -155 v. Panthers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a prime time Monday night game. But the Panthers are not a prime time team yet. Not with Bryce Young in his NFL infancy, lacking weapons and playing behind a mediocre offensive line that lost left guard Brady Christensen for the season last week against a New Orleans defense that hasn't allowed more than 20 points per game during its last nine games. Carolina was held to 10 points and 281 yards by the Falcons last Sunday. Young's longest completion was 14 yards. He threw for only 146 yards and was intercepted twice. New Orleans has a better defense than Atlanta. The Saints have given up an average of 11.2 points in their last four games going back to last season. New Orleans also has the more dynamic offense with Derek Carr, Chris Olave, a finally-healthy Michael Thomas and emerging tight end Juwan Johnson. The Panthers lost one of their better players in their secondary with cornerback Jaycee Horn suffering a hamstring injury that will keep him out a while. First-year Carolina coach Frank Reich has a history of slow starts. His Colts teams of the previous five years were 2-5-1 SU, 3-5 ATS during the first two weeks of the season. The Saints are serious playoff contenders. The Panthers are in rebuild mode. New Orleans is at least one, if not two tiers, higher than Carolina. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Dolphins v. Patriots +3 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 59 m | Show | |
The Dolphins are not going to draw Bill Belichick's Patriots into a track meet. The Patriots have the superior defense of the two teams. The Patriots offense is improved and the weather conditions are in their favor. So is the situation. Miami has to be at least a little fat-and-happy crisscrossing the country after beating the Chargers in LA last Sunday and now having to fly to the East Coast where the weather conditions will be different with 10-to-15 mile per hour winds. The Patriots drew a bad break when the Eagles caught an early gift TD courtesy of their defense last week. But the Patriots showed their grit coming back from a 16-0 deficit to lose, 25-20, to the Super Bowl runner-up. New England outgained Philadelphia, 385-251. The Patriots forced more three-and-outs than the Eagles had all last season. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill had monster performances against the Chargers. Tagovailoa passed for 466 yards. Hill caught 11 passes for 215 yards and two TD's against the poorly-schemed Chargers defense. Hill could be the best wide receiver in the AFC. But Belichick isn't going to let this combination beat his team by not paying full attention to Hill like the Chargers failed to do. The Patriots also have the capability of playing ball-control with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott keeping the chains moving on the ground and the clock running. Mac Jones has upgraded wide receiver depth and much better offensive coaching/play calling than last season with the switch of offensive coordinators from Matt Patricia, a defensive coach, to Bill O'Brien. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Commanders v. Broncos -3 | 35-33 | Loss | -125 | 67 h 18 m | Show | |
Give me the 0-1 home team versus the 1-0 road team. Give me the Denver defense instead of the Commanders offense. These are the main two factors why I like the Broncos to defeat the Commanders by more than a field goal at Mile High Stadium. Washington was nip-and-tuck with Arizona, by far the worst team in the NFL, before pulling out a 20-16 home win last week. Commanders QB Sam Howell was sacked six times and committed two turnovers in that loss. The Commanders were turnover-prone last season committing 23. They still are turnover-prone and the veteran, savvy Denver defense knows how to take advantage. Russell Wilson didn't set the world ablaze in last Sunday's loss to the Raiders, but he was improved under Sean Payton. Wilson completed 27-of-34 passes for 177 yards and two TD's. I'm expecting Wilson to be much better this season. He's showing signs of that. Payton gives the Broncos more credibility on offense than they've had in the past. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys -9.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 124 h 40 m | Show |
The timing for this matchup couldn't be worse for the Jets. They have to travel on a short week following their roller-coaster emotional Monday night home upset overtime victory against the Bills. Their opponent happens to be the Cowboys, who I rank with the 49ers as being the best teams in the NFL right now. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Giants -5.5 v. Cardinals | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 44 m | Show | |
The Giants are going from playing arguably the best team in the NFL, Dallas, to the undisputed worst, the Cardinals. | |||||||
09-17-23 | Seahawks v. Lions OVER 47 | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 64 h 8 m | Show | |
These two teams played in 2021. Seattle won, 51-29. The two teams played again last year this time in Detroit. Seattle won, 48-45. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Wyoming +30 v. Texas | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 56 h 58 m | Show |
Kudos to Texas for upsetting Alabama on the road last week. That victory vaulted the Longhorns into a top-five rating in the AP poll for the first time since 2010. It also puts the Longhorns in danger of letting down against Wyoming, especially since they have a bigger game on deck when they play at Baylor next week to begin Big 12 Conference play. Texas has great skill position talent, but Wyoming isn't getting enough respect. The Cowboys are a solid Mountain West Conference program under Craig Bohl. They've gone bowling five of the past six years, not including the 2020 shortened Covid season. Wyoming is 2-0. The Cowboys are 8-2-1 ATS the last two plus seasons when taking a field goal or more. They've already scored one major upset this year defeating Texas Tech, 35-33 in overtime, as 13 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Cowboys are not flashy. But they have a solid defense, can run the ball effectively and have a competent QB in Andrew Peasley. | |||||||
09-16-23 | San Jose State v. Toledo OVER 57 | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm expecting a quarterback shootout between Chevan Cordeiro, perhaps the top quarterback in the Mountain West Conference, and Toledo stud DeQuan Finn. Both quarterbacks are mobile and have good receiving weapons particularly Finn, who has an excellent trio of Jerijuan Newton, CC Ezirim and Junior Vandeross. San Jose State has played two Division I schools - Pac-12 foes USC and Oregon State. The Spartans couldn't stop either team on the ground or through the air. The result was giving up 56 points to USC and 42 to the Beavers. Toledo just put up 71 points on Texas Southern in its last game. The Rockets' other game was a 30-28 road loss to Illinois. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Tennessee v. Florida +6 | 16-29 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
I find Tennessee and its quarterback, Joe Milton, to be overrated. Considering the Volunteers haven't won at Florida since 2003, I'm going to take this many points with the Gators. Tennessee only beat Austin Peay, 30-13, last Saturday as a 48 1/2-point home favorite. The Governors were within 10 points still in the fourth quarter. That raises a big red flag. Wisconsin transfer QB Graham Mertz is getting more accustomed to operating Florida's offense. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Western Kentucky +30 v. Ohio State | 10-63 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm not sold so far on Ohio State. I find the Buckeye overpriced against a Western Kentucky team that is very potent on offense with a very good quarterback. Throw in a look-ahead sport for Ohio State with its marquee matchup against Notre Dame up next and I'll take this many points with the Hilltoppers. Who has Ohio State played? Nobody really. The Buckeyes are 2-0 with wins against Indiana, a lower tier Big Ten team, and Youngstown State. Ohio State didn't cover in either game. Kyle McCord has emerged as Ohio State's starting QB, but he's unproven. The Buckeyes' running game ranks 88th. Austin Reed is anything but unproven. He led the nation in passing yards for Western Kentucky with 4,744 last season. He had a 40-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio and scored another eight TD's rushing. The Hilltoppers are averaging 46.5 points this year in rolling past South Florida and Houston Christian. | |||||||
09-16-23 | Minnesota v. North Carolina -7.5 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 14 m | Show | |
Athan Kaliakmanis follows Tanner Morgan in a long line of stiff Minnesota quarterbacks. He can't trade points against college superstar Drake Maye. North Carolina's defense may be better than expected after limiting South Carolina to minus two yards rushing while sacking Gamecocks quarterback Spencer Rattler nine times two weeks ago in its opener. Never has Minnesota defeated a top Top 25 team on the road under P.J. Fleck, who is in his seventh season. The Tar Heels rank 20th in the country. Maye will take advantage of Minnesota's inexperienced linebackers and the Gophers' weak schedule. | |||||||
09-11-23 | Bills v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
Are the Jets ready for prime time? The answer is yes and they'll prove that here. Buffalo could only average 18.5 points in its two games against the Jets when the teams split last season. The Jets defense looks even better this season and their offense is far better with Aaron Rodgers on board. The prideful Rodgers is at his best when he feels he has something to prove after being with the Packers for 15 seasons. During his time in Green Bay, Rodgers was a home underdog just eight times as a starting quarterback. The Packers covered seven of those eight games. Rodgers is rejuvenated and has better weapons than he's had with emerging superstar wide receiver Garrett Wilson, running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook along with his two Green Bay security blankets, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb. Buffalo's defense is down from last season with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds gone, edge pass rusher Von Miller injured and the secondary aged and banged-up. I like the Jets' roster better than Buffalo's. Jets fans haven't been this excited about their team's Super Bowl chances since Joe Namath was making bold predictions. New York's home field is worth more than it normally is given these Monday night and Rodgers' Jets debut circumstances. Getting points is just a bonus. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Giants | 40-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
It's easy to rip on the Cowboys for their lack of playoff success. But what about the Giants and Daniel Jones? They don't get a pass now that they've become playoff contenders under Brian Daboll. After a fast start, the Giants finished 3-6-1 last season. Opponents started keying on Saquan Barkley, holding him to an average of 58 yards rushing during the final 10 games. Jones failed to pick up the slack. When it comes to prime time, Danny Dimes should be Danny Pennies. Jones is 1-10 in prime-time games. Jones threw only 15 TD's passes last season. He's not as good as Dak Prescott. The Giants aren't as talented as the Cowboys on either side of the ball. So there's no reason to overthink this matchup. Dallas is 11-1 in its last dozen games versus the Giants. This includes a pair of victories last season by seven and eight points, respectively. Prescott has weapons. I rate Tony Pollard ahead of Barkley. CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks give the Cowboys the two best wide receivers. Jones' major receiving weapon, tight end Darren Waller, is questionable with a hamstring. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Packers +1 v. Bears | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 51 m | Show | |
Green Bay is flat out the better team. The Packers were five games better than Chicago last season. Does Aaron Rodgers make that big of a difference? Rodgers didn't have a good year by his lofty standards. Jordan Love, surrounded by a top-10 offensive line and exciting skill position talent and stud running back Aaron Jones, is serviceable at the very minimum. That's enough to beat the Bears, who can't compare to the Packers in either the offensive line or defensive line. Justin Fields can be a highlight reel. But Chicago is 5-20 SU, 8-16-1 ATS in his 25 starts. Love can throw downfield. Fields has yet to prove he can. Green Bay has owned the Bears, too, winning 13 of the last 14. Sure much of that was Rodgers. But the Packers play the Bears with a lot of confidence. Green Bay wants to show right away it can win with Love and are no longer dependent on Rodgers. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 45 | 25-20 | Push | 0 | 27 h 30 m | Show | |
The good news for the Patriots offense is they'll get better coaching with Bill O'Brien taking over as offensive coordinator from the clown show they had last season. The bad news is New England's offense still appears very tepid. The offensive line already is banged-up, Mac Jones excites no one and Rhamondre Stevenson, the one above average Patriot skill position player, is questionable due to illness. Ezekiel Elliott was brought in, but he's nothing more than a plus for the Under with his high mileage and boring north/south running style. The Eagles have the premier defensive line in the NFL. Philadelphia had 70 sacks last season. The next closest team, the Chiefs, had 55. I see the Eagles dominating the Patriots' offensive line. Once again, the Patriots' strength is their defense. Bill Belichick is especially effective with extra time to prepare. The Patriots have held their last four Week 1 foes to an average of 12.7 points a game. It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in each of New England's past five openers. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Texans v. Ravens UNDER 43.5 | 9-25 | Win | 100 | 70 h 50 m | Show | |
Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has well below average skill position talent around him. Now he goes into his first NFL game - on the road at a tough venue - missing four projected offensive line starters. The Texans suffered multiple injuries to their offensive line in August. They could be down to their third-string center while minus their second and third-best offensive linemen. Making it worse for Stroud is facing an aggressive, veteran well-coached Ravens defense on the road. He certainly is not set up for success. The Ravens are emphasizing passing for the first time with Lamar Jackson, learning a different offense and with a new offensive coordinator. So their timing could be off in this first game. Houston's strength is its defense. The Texans should be competitive defensively under first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, formerly a highly productive linebacker. | |||||||
09-10-23 | Bucs +5.5 v. Vikings | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 9 m | Show | |
Don't get suckered by the Vikings 13-4 record last season. They were the luckiest team in the NFL going 11-0 in one-score games. They actually had a negative season point differential. The Vikings aren't good enough to lay this many points. Only once since Week 2 of last year did the Vikings beat an opponent by more than eight points. They were 2-5 ATS as favorites of four or more points. The Buccaneers are the much better defensive team. Minnesota ranked 31st in pass defense last season. Baker Mayfield could surprise this season. He's a good passing fit for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who are due for bounce-back seasons. Tom Brady threw a lot of passes last season, but he wasn't that effective. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $1,072 |
Tom Macrina | $601 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
William Burns | $288 |
Ricky Tran | $269 |
Big Al McMordie | $234 |
Joey Tron | $165 |
Jesse Schule | $21 |
Tim Michael | $18 |