05-17-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers -125 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 100-113 |
Loss | -125 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
What are the oddsmakers saying by making the Clippers a road favorite against the Rockets in Game 7? They're telling you the Clippers are the better team - and I agree. For the first time since early in their opening round playoff series against the Spurs, the Clippers get two days rest. It couldn't have come at a better team for the Clippers after their epic meltdown in Game 6 blowing a 19-point third quarter lead in their home loss this past Thursday. Credit to the Rockets for this comeback, but the Clippers simply ran out of gas and got too overconfident. That's not going to happen in this game. The Clippers are the smarter team, better coached and have a top floor general in Chris Paul. Josh Smith and Corey Brewer aren't going to get that hot again. Smith is one of the worst percentage shooters in the NBA. The Rockets haven't played any defense in this series. The Clippers were getting good looks, but ran out of gas, which affected their shooting. The Clippers are 8-2 ATS the past 10 times when playing on two days rest. They have proven themselves on the road, too covering 76 percent of their past 22 away matchups. Houston has failed to cover in 10 of its past 14 meetings versus the Clippers. |
05-15-15 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Washington Wizards -145 | | 94-91 |
Loss | -145 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Forget that the Hawks went 60-22 during the regular season and Mike Budenholzer was named coach of the year. The Hawks aren't any better than the Wizards right now and Budenholzer isn't coaching any better than Randy Wittman, who I regard as one of the weaker playoff coaches. Atlanta is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Hawks were lucky to win 82-81 at home two nights ago in Game 5 after they blew an 11-point fourth quarter lead. They are 1-5-1 ATS following a victory. Washington is 5-0-1 ATS the past six times after a loss. The Wizards are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games versus opponents with a winning record and 12-3-2 ATS during their last 17 overall games. The Wizards have matured and are better than a year ago when they fell at home in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference to the top-seeded Pacers and were eliminated. Washington is 3-1 at Verizon Center in the postseason this year compared to 1-4 during the playoffs last season. John Wall and Bradley Beal are better than they were a year. The Wizards didn't have veteran Paul Pierce last season and Otto Porter wasn't making major contributions like he is now in his much improved second season. Wall played for the first time in four games in Game 5. He was rusty, but still put up 15 points and seven assists while learning to adjust with a broken non-shooting hand. Wall should be more effective in today's game. The Hawks struggled to get past the Nets in the first round. They have yet to put together a solid four-quarter game, are on the road and have a disadvantage on the boards and at point guard with Wall returning for Washington. That's enough to get the Wizards a Game 6 victory. |
05-14-15 |
Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 220 | Top | 119-107 |
Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
All five games of this series have gone over the total. Now we have the highest total of the series in this Game 6. This is the time to play contrarian and go under the total. True, these teams are about offense and the Rockets have played terrible defense. But I see this game playing out differently. The Clippers could be tight in the role of huge home favorite with all the pressure on them to close out the Rockets right here. The Rockets have better defenders than perceived. The key for Houston - which it executed in Game 5 - is ball movement. The Rockets should be super intense defensively and patient on offense looking to work their inside-outside game. So I'm expecting a slower tempo than normal between these two clubs.
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05-13-15 |
Washington Wizards +8 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 81-82 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
Atlanta played one its best game of the playoffs in Game 4 defeating the Wizards on the road, 106-101, two nights ago. The Hawks shot a series-high 47.1 percent from the floor and sank 9-of-19 3-point shots. Yet the Wizards - who didn't play up to their full capabilities and were minus John Wall - were within an open 3-point jumper by the normally clutch Paul Pierce of tying the game with seven seconds left. Now the scene shifts to Atlanta. The Hawks have yet to produce an "A" game for 48 minutes. They've played well in spurts. But lost their mojo down the stretch of the regular season when Mike Budenholzer was resting players. They have yet to rediscover their early-season dominance. The playoffs are about superstars. The Hawks have good players. Not superstars. The Wizards are at their most dangerous on the road in the playoffs. During the past two seasons, Washington is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS away from Verizon Center in the playoffs. They are 5-0 with Wall during the post-season. Wall has a broken non-shooting hand, but could play. He's a game-time decision. I like the Wizards here even if Wall doesn't play. Atlanta is 1-4-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. The Wizards have covered in five of their last six road contests. The Hawks couldn't put the Wizards away in Game 4 when they stepped up their game - scoring just one basket during the final 3:30 and that was on a 3-pointer by Teague as the 24-second clock was expiring because he couldn't find a higher-percentage scoring option before time ran out. I expect the Wizards to perform better. It's an extra bonus if Wall plays. Even if the Hawks continue to play well in spurts - which isn't a given - they still haven't shown enough to close out the Wizards and cover this large of a number. Only twice in their last 20 games have the Wizards lost by more than eight points.
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05-12-15 |
Chicago Bulls +5.5 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 101-106 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
The last two games have been decided on final shots. These teams are very close. It's a huge plus if Pau Gasol can play. But even if he can't, I like taking this many points with Chicago. The Bulls are better coached, have a deeper bench and the Cavaliers are minus Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving is severely limited by foot and knee injuries. Irving has missed 18 of 23 shots from the floor during the last two games. Cleveland is just 2-8 ATS when playing on one day's rest. |
05-11-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies +5 | Top | 101-84 |
Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Maybe the oddsmaker considers the Grizzlies beating the Warriors in Game 2 AND Game 3 a fluke. I don't and have the statistics and matchups to back it up. Some people are holding on too much to the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. What is meaningful is the Grizzlies have outscored the Warriors by 19 points during the past nine quarters. Memphis has been ahead for nearly 90 of the 96 minutes during the last two games. Memphis is the more experienced playoff team, has a taller more physical frontcourt and possess backcourt defensive aces to control Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Grizzlies can score inside with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Mike Conley provides backcourt scoring. The Warriors, on the other hand, are in trouble when Curry and Thompson go cold. They don't have the Grizzlies' inside-outside game being a small, jump-shooting team. Memphis scored 14 more points than the Warriors in the paint in Game 3 while owning a 44-39 rebounding edge. The Warriors won't have injured reserve forward Marreese Speights for this game either. Bothered by defensive whiz Tony Allen, the Warriors missed 20 of 26 3-point shots in Game 3. The key takeaway here is the Warriors just weren't on a cold spell. The flow and pace were clearly in Memphis' favor. The Warriors aren't nearly as dangerous hitting 3-pointers from half-court sets. They are at their best on the open court off turnovers. Yet they couldn't score one point off a Memphis turnover during the first half of Game 3. The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game. They have a very tough home court and are 5-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played, 4-0 at FedEx Forum. Memphis is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six home games. Golden State is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. It's clear again the oddsmaker/marketplace is misreading these teams. The Grizzlies are a matchup nightmare for the Warriors - and they are home. This should be a pick'em type of line. Getting points, especially this many, is a generous gift.
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05-10-15 |
Houston Rockets +7.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 95-128 |
Loss | -110 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
Do I have concerns about the Rockets' lack of defense, basketball savvy and mental toughness? Yes. But I also respect the Zig-Zag theory and the Rockets' star power. The superstars are going to cancel each other out, but I see the Rockets' key secondary players - namely Josh Smith and Trevor Ariza - shooting better while Austin Rivers and J.J. Redick fall back to Earth after playing the games of their life. Smith is 9-for-31 shooting in the series. Ariza has missed 13 of 17 shots from 3-point range. Smith isn't a high percentage shooter, but he has big time talent while Ariza is underrated and normally a much more reliable shooter and defender. Pride and the series are on the line here for the Rockets. Houston is 22-8 ATS following a loss. The Rockets haven't been this big of underdogs in more than 10 weeks. The Rockets are better defensively than they've showed. They ranked sixth in points per possession during the regular season and held Chris Paul to 36.7 percent shooting from the floor during the regular season. Paul isn't 100 percent because of a hamstring aliment. He isn't likely to have the same adrenalin he had in Game 3 when he played for the first time since hitting the game-winning basket in Game 7 versus the Spurs. Neither are the Clippers, who are due for a letdown after taking out the defending champion Spurs in an epic seven-game first round series and blowing out the Rockets at home two days ago by 25 points. Still, the Rockets need to make adjustments. I believe they will plus come out with tremendous intensity. I'm expecting to see Dwight Howard more involved in the offense. Defensively, I expect to see the Rockets go all out to get back on transition while limiting the Clippers' fast-break opportunities. These teams are close to even talent-wise. The Clippers have been the smarter team. But changes and adjustments are coming from Houston. The Rockets are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games when playing on one day's rest, while the Clippers are 2-8 during their past 10 home games. So perspective needs to be maintained. The Rockets were this big of favorites during the first two games of the series. Now the line is completely reversed. It's way too much of an overreaction.
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05-09-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Memphis Grizzlies +5 | Top | 89-99 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
This isn't the regular season. The Warriors may be the best team in the NBA, but they have to prove it again. I don't see them having an easy run trying to accomplish it. Should we overreact to Mike Conley's dramatic return and Tony Allen's outstanding defense in the Grizzlies' surprising 97-90 Game 2 road upset victory? No, but this spread isn't giving the Grizzlies enough respect. Memphis is strong at FedEx Forum and creates matchup problems for the Warriors. The Grizzlies have a tall, physical frontline. They also have outstanding backcourt defenders who can keep Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in check. Allen has 12 steals in his last three games. Conley is playing great two-way basketball. The Grizzlies are 4-0 in the playoffs when Conley has played. The Grizzlies ranked second in fewest points allowed per game. They tied for the fourth-best home record at 31-10. The Warriors won a league-high 28 road games during the regular season, but went just 14-12 during their last 26 regular season away contests. Golden State is 2-10 in its last 12 games at FedEx Forum. The Grizzlies are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games versus opponents with a winning record. Based on their record, the Warriors probably deserve to be a road favorite. But not by this much. I see value here with the Grizzlies - and that's the way I'm going.
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05-08-15 |
Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 217 | | 99-124 |
Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
The zigs and zags of trying to master the NBA playoffs just don't come when playing sides. Totals also have to be considered. The Rockets-Clippers have gone Over in both games of their series. Now we come to Game 3 where the total is the highest of the series - at least five points higher than it was in Game 1. There were 224 points scored in the last game. The Rockets set a franchise record in free throw attempts at 64 and in free throws made with 42 during the last game. Look for things to unfold different here. The Clippers aren't likely to have Chris Paul. Without Paul the pace gets slower. If Paul sits out the Clippers are hurt offensively. Austin Rivers played decently in place of Paul, but he's far from Paul. Very far. If Paul plays he'll be severely hobbled, which also will mean a slower pace. The Clippers probably wouldn't mind a slower tempo anyways since they have been playing every other day since the third game of the Spurs series. Blake Griffin especially looked gassed at the end of Game 2. Dwight Howard and DeAndre Jordan are two of the best - if not the best - defensive big men. Trevor Ariza and Josh Smith are solid defenders, too, even though the Rockets are perceived as being weak defensively. Jamal Crawford is cold missing 26 of 40 shots from the field in the series. The Clippers count on Crawford's scoring off the bench. The Clippers' defensive intensity should really be up after last game and compensating for Paul. The under has cashed eight of the past 10 times when the Clippers have lost in their last game.
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05-08-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Chicago Bulls -125 | Top | 96-99 |
Win | 100 | 32 h 29 m | Show |
The Cavaliers won their must-win home game on Wednesday. But now the scene shifts to Chicago - and things change. Cleveland jumped out fast on Chicago in Game 2, but were outscored 73-68 during the final three quarters. I highly doubt the Cavaliers are going to get off to a similar fast start on the road. Kevin Love is out for Cleveland. J.R. Smith returns from suspension. But how effective will the gunner be when he hasn't played in nearly two weeks? He's going to be very rusty. Rookie Cleveland coach David Blatt also now has to figure out what to do with both Smith and Iman Shumpert, who has played well in this series but also is dealing with a groin injury. I have far more confidence in Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau than I do Blatt, who seems intimidated by James. The Cavaliers didn't seem to have great chemistry in that Game 2 victory. It was all James. Relying on a single superstar isn't always the best playoff formula especially when on the road. James took 29 shots from the floor during Game 2. Kyrie Irving had only nine shots from the field. This isn't the best example of team basketball. The Bulls had a poor shooting game. Normally reliable Pau Gasol was just 3-for-8 from the field. Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler were a combined 11-for-34 shooting from the floor. Rose didn't get to the free throw line once during the two games in Cleveland. That's not likely to be the case at United Center, where the Bulls have won nine of the last 10 times. |
05-06-15 |
Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 | Top | 91-106 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Perhaps the Bulls are better than the Cavaliers when Cleveland is minus Kevin Love and J.R. Smith. But I'm willing to lay this spread with a fired-up LeBron James playing at home knowing Cleveland absolutely can't go down 0-2 in this series having played their first two games at Quicken Loans Arena. Chicago played well in Game 1 on Monday. So nothing against the Bulls. But Cleveland is a very good defensive team, especially at home. I don't expect the Bulls to make half of their shots from the floor like they did on Monday, nor for Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose to be as successful in executing pick-and-roll plays. I do expect the Cavaliers to be far less rusty. They had been idle for eight days before meeting the Bulls. I do expect James to shoot much better than of 9-of-22 like he did in Game 1 and to get to the free throw line far more than just twice. James will accomplish this by not settling for so many long jumpers like he did on Monday. He's going to play far more aggressive. He knows all of Tom Thibodeau's defenses. It's just a question of making his shots. The Bulls have been far less effective when playing with just one day rest, which is the case here. Chicago lost the past two times to Milwaukee in Round 1 when playing on one day's rest. This is the Cavaliers' season. They are 13-6 ATS the past 19 times following a loss. I expect them to respond with a big effort and I want them going for me today.
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05-05-15 |
Washington Wizards +6.5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 90-106 |
Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Forget the Zig/Zag and the Hawks being the superior team. Neither is going to hold up here. Washington upset Atlanta in Game 1 despite shooting less than 42 percent from the floor. The Wizards were the more rested team by far, but somewhat rusty. The Hawks were lucky to have drawn the Nets as their first-round playoff opponent. Atlanta isn't playing well. The Hawks averaged just 20.3 points during the final three quarters against the Wizards in Game 1. The Hawks were settling for low-percentage perimeter shots and not getting to the free throw line. John Wall gives Washington a point guard edge to go with the Wizards' strong rebounding advantage. Wall has dished off 55 assists during the last four games. He's playing at a far higher level than Jeff Teague. Paul Pierce is proving a savvy, veteran presence for the Wizards and Otto Porter has been a surprise off the bench. The Wizards were plus 11 during Porter's time on the court in Game 1 on Sunday. The facts are the Hawks are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games. The Wizards are 8-1 SU, 9-0 ATS the past two years in road playoff games beating market expectations by an average of 11.8 points per game. It's time to face that reality.
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05-04-15 |
Chicago Bulls v. Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 | Top | 99-92 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Despite missing Kevin Love and suspended J. R. Smith, I don't see the Cavaliers falling to the Bulls in Game 1. The Cavaliers are an elite home team, have had eight days to rest and prepare and have a motivated and healthy LeBron James. Jimmy Butler was a monster against the Bucks in the Bulls' first-round series. Butler, though, isn't going to be the offensive force he was against Milwaukee having to concentrate and use so much of his energy to guard James. Tristan Thompson doesn't have Love's offensive game, but he's a beast on the boards and can successfully defend Pau Gasol. The Bulls own the stronger bench, but that's not going to factor much in this opening game because of Cleveland's extended rest and ample preparation time. Veterans Shawn Marion and Mike Miller can be counted on to step up for the Cavaliers in this spot given their vast playoff experience. I do expect James and Kyrie Irving to play heavy minutes. The Cavaliers have the shooters and ability, with James' drives to the basket, to spread the floor and make open shots. That style works against Gasol and inside defensive whiz Joakim Noah. Irving is a legitimate star. He's overshadowed by James. Derrick Rose was a star, but has yet to prove consistent since returning from injury. James and Irving can be counted on. I can't say the same for Rose.
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05-03-15 |
Washington Wizards +5 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 104-98 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
Damn the perception. The fact is the Wizards are road playoff warriors. They've proven that the past two seasons going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS. Now they catch a break with the scheduling of this game. The Hawks are on a short turnaround having finally dispatched the Nets this past Friday. This is an early start game. They've had to travel three times already this week. The Wizards have been idle for a week leaving them fresh and well prepared. Forget the regular season. It doesn't mean anything now. The Hawks peaked too early. They lost their mojo by resting starters too much down the stretch. It's a stinging indictment how much trouble they encountered taking six games to dispatch the Nets, who didn't play particularly well and were the worst team to make the playoffs. Atlanta is 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine games. The Wizards have the better point guard in John Wall, have been playing better defense and are a much superior rebounding team. They also are healthy while the Hawks are nicked up with Al Horford bothered by a right pinkie injury and Paul Millsap dealing with a sore right shoulder. Washington has beaten market expectations by close to 100 points in covering its last eight playoff road games. The Wizards are better than last season, too, now that savvy veteran Paul Pierce is on the team. This sets up as a perfect opportunity for the Wizards to steal Game 1. |
05-02-15 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 204 | Top | 109-111 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
The Spurs are averaging 104.6 points during the last five games of this series. The Clippers are averaging 107.4 points in the series if you discount their Game 3 performance. I'm expecting that scoring to keep up especially in this Game 7. Overtime is a possibility with such a short spread and there could be extra fouling during the end game with the loser being eliminated in what I consider to be the highest-caliber first-round playoff series in NBA history. The Clippers have their confidence up after upsetting the Spurs on the road in Game 6. The prideful defending champions, though, won't go quietly. The over has cashed seven of the past eight times San Antonio lost in its previous game. Los Angeles was the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA while ranking third in 3-point shooting percentage. Yet the Clippers have missed 18 of their last 23 shots from beyond the arc. They are due to shoot much better. There's another factor that could have positive ramifications for an over. Clippers reserve forward Glen Davis is questionable with a sprained ankle. If he can't go it would mean minutes for Hedo Turkoglu and Spencer Hawes, who are inferior defensively to Davis but much better offensively.
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05-01-15 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 200.5 | Top | 111-87 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
Fatigue is setting in as the Hawks-Nets head into today's Game 6. Atlanta played its starters a lot of minutes in Game 5, while Brook Lopez is hitting the wall for Brooklyn. The Nets' inside scoring takes a tremendous hit if Lopez isn't on his game. Neither team played as well as they are capable of on defense during the last game, yet the total barely nudged over. I don't see the teams combining to reach 200 points this time around with a fatigue factor, expected better defense as the intensity sinks in and the half-court slowdown styles. Banged-up Deron Williams tumbled back to Earth in Game 5 scoring just five points on 2-of-8 shooting from the floor after scoring a highly surprising 35 points in Game 4.
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04-30-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers +5.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 102-96 |
Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show |
I'm not convinced San Antonio is the superior team, let alone can cover this mid-range spread. The Clippers' stars are in their prime and in a must-win spot. Their NBA championship window can close as fast as aged San Antonio's in today's rapidly changing NBA. The Spurs should get the Clippers' best effort here. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering 13 of the past 17 times. Los Angeles also has proven itself on the road going 12-3-1 ATS during its past 16 away matchups. The Clippers know they can win on the road. They blew a 14-point lead in their last game against San Antonio at home, probably coming within a foolish offensive goaltending violation of beating the Spurs and owning the series lead. The Spurs nipped the Clippers in Game 5 by making 11 of 23 shots from 3-point range compared to the Clippers hitting only one of 14 from beyond the arc. San Antonio's reserves made 10 of 14 shots from 3-point range. These kind of figures aren't likely to come close to holding up. Certainly Jamal Crawford, the Clippers' top reserve, is due to break out of his shooting slump. He's missed an unbelievable 18 of his last 19 3-point shots during the past four games. NFL Draft Props Todd Gurley Under 20 1/2 in Round 1 At least one Internet sportsbook has an over/under of 20 1/2 in the first round of when Georgia running back Todd Gurley will be picked. I like under. I believe Gurley will be among the first 15 players selected. Gurley is ahead of his rehab schedule after suffering a torn ACL this past November. His draft stock has risen considerably because of it. Gurley is a complete package runner. He could be the best running back prospect of the past three seasons. There is a lot of pre-draft buzz about the Dolphins taking him at No. 14, but Gurley may get snatched up before then. He could go as high as No. 6. A possible landing spot could be to the Browns at No. 12. The Browns need a featured star running back. Their quarterbacks are Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel. Cleveland failed to reach triple digits in rushing during half of their games last season.
More than 5 1/2 wide receivers being taken in Round 1 I see nine potential first-round wide receivers. Amari Cooper and Kevin White are likely to be among the first eight picks. It wouldn't surprise me to see DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman and Phillip Dorsett go in the top 20. Nelson Agholor is fast-rising so it now appears he's going in the first round. Dorial Green-Beckham is too intriguing a prospect to not get picked in the opening round. The Saints and Ravens are picking late in the draft and they both have receiving needs. Devin Smith and Jalen Strong are worthy of first-round consideration, too.
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04-29-15 |
Brooklyn Nets v. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 200 | Top | 97-107 |
Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Forget the Nets' 120-115 overtime victory two nights ago. There is not going to be 235 points scored in this pivotal Game 5 matchup. I don't see the Nets and Hawks combining to break 200. This isn't Western Conference playoff basketball. It's an Eastern Conference matchup between two, slow, patient and methodical teams. Only six teams have a better defensive efficiency rating than Atlanta. Brooklyn has been frustrating the Hawks. So the Nets aren't suddenly going to play up-tempo when they know the Hawks have struggled in half-court. Brooklyn averaged 91.3 points in the first three games of the series. Atlanta averaged 92.6 points during the first three contests. That's a combined 183.9 points per game for three of the first four games. Now the defensive intensity is increased several notches with the series becoming a best two-of-three. There are fatigue issues at this point, too, following Monday's overtime game. The Nets are plain bad. Deron Williams is too past his prime and banged-up to have a game for the ages like he did on Monday. The Hawks aren't playing well and have lost their swagger. Until Game 4, the Hawks were shooting less than 40 percent from the field. The Hawks are a jump shooting team - and their jump shooters have lost their confidence and way. |
04-28-15 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Houston Rockets -7 | Top | 94-103 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Now that Dallas got its victory in Game 4 at home, I don't see the Mavericks showing up here. The Mavericks are old and through. Chandler Parsons is hurt. Rajon Rondo basically has been kicked off the team and Dirk Nowitzki has too much age. The Mavericks lack the athleticism, chemistry and defense to stay close to the Rockets in this close-out match. Dallas also has a terrible history in Houston having not won there since 2005. The Rockets beat the Mavericks by double-digits in each of the first two playoff games at home. Even in losing Game 4, the Rockets still put up 109 points on a weak Dallas defense - and that was missing 16 straight shots at one point. Dwight Howard is fresh after having missed much of the regular season and Houston's other starters actually logged fewer minutes than Dallas's key players during the past game. Led by James Harden, the Rockets are a dangerous shooting team from beyond the arc. The Mavericks ranked 27th in 3-point defense. The Rockets can beat the Mavericks inside with Howard, or via the perimeter.
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04-27-15 |
Atlanta Hawks -4 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 115-120 |
Loss | -107 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Take away the first quarter of Game 1 and you could say the Nets have been the better team during the past 11 quarters of this series. The Nets served a big wake-up call to the Hawks by finally prevailing in Game 3, 91-83, at home this past Saturday. Atlanta isn't playing nearly as well as it did earlier this season, averaging 10 points less per game so far in the playoffs than it did during the regular season. But I don't like the makeup of the Nets. Most of their best players are past their prime, they don't have a strong fan base with Barclays Center estimated to be only about 40 percent full at tip-off in Game 3 and Deron Williams isn't physically right. The Hawks are due to play much better. Their backcourt players missed 24 of 30 shots from the perimeter in Game 3. The open looks were there, for the most part, the shots just weren't dropping. Kyle Korver, Jeff Teague and Al Horford were only a combined 8-for-33 from the floor. The prideful Hawks are extremely well-coached and play with far more precision than Brooklyn. Atlanta's intensity is sure to be up. Cleveland is resting now after sweeping the Celtics and the Bulls are likely to close out the Bucks today. So the Hawks have a great deal of urgency to turn in their "A" game. They can't let this series get knotted at 2-2 and then face at least two more games. Williams is battling both injury and ineffectiveness missing 13 of 15 shots from the floor during the last two games while dealing with tendinitis. |
04-26-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers +6.5 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 114-105 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Last Sunday, the Clippers opened their first-round series against the Spurs winning, 107-92, at home. Now, a week later, the Clippers are middle-range road underdogs. That's what happens when you lose in overtime at home in Game 2 and get blown out this past Friday at San Antonio by 27 points. These teams, though, are much closer than this point spread especially with Tony Parker hampered by soreness in his right Achilles' tendon, left knee and left quadriceps. Parker is playing, but he's been ineffective missing 21 of 28 shots from the floor. I'm expecting a huge bounce back effort from the Clippers following their worst playoff defeat in franchise history. The Clippers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games and should be up 2-1 in the series. San Antonio is a proud champion, but this is not one of its great teams. The Game 3 blowout was unexpected. It would be even more of a shock if the Spurs blow out the Clippers - whose top stars are in their prime - a second time in a row. Chris Paul gives the Clippers a point guard edge with Parker not 100 percent. Rarely has Paul played poorly in consecutive games. Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick are due for much better performances, too, after making only a combined 5-of-18 shots from the floor in Game 3. |
04-25-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. New Orleans Pelicans +7 | Top | 109-98 |
Loss | -105 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Golden State wins games. But the Warriors don't cover point spreads. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, 0-6 during their past six matchups. New Orleans is full of talent with the best big man in the game, Anthony Davis. The Pelicans match up well to the Warriors, who are a jump-shooting, small team. The Pelicans trailed Golden State by six with under a minute to play in Game 1 before losing by seven. The Pelicans blew a 13-point lead in losing Game 2. Then, two nights ago at home, the Pelicans lost a 20-point fourth quarter lead and fell in overtime. Golden State has savvy, heart and playoff experience. The Warriors know how to win. The Pelicans don't. But New Orleans is well past its playoff jitters being in the postseason for the first time since 2011. Sure there is a chance the Pelicans quit after being so close to victory in their last game. There also is the chance the Warriors still are celebrating their miracle Game 3 comeback and don't play with their usual concentration, focus and high energy. It's very difficult - and somewhat of a guess - to try to figure out a team's psyche. But I do know the Warriors are 0-7 ATS the past seven times following a victory and have failed to cover 19 of the past 26 times when playing on one day's rest. New Orleans is 20-7 ATS at home versus opponents with a winning record and have covered in their last six home contests. The Pelicans haven't been this big of home 'dogs since Jan. 30.
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04-24-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs UNDER 204 | Top | 73-100 |
Win | 100 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
This total would make more sense if it were a regular season game. It's not, though. This is playoff basketball and it comes following an overtime game two nights ago. There were a combined 199 points scored in Game 1. During regulation of Game 2 there were a combined 188 points scored. Tony Parker has missed 13 of 17 shots from the field during the first two games and is extremely banged-up with a right Achilles injury along with being hampered by ankle and quad injuries. If Parker doesn't play, the Spurs are likely to slow pace as they have no one to match up to Chris Paul. If Parker does play, he's likely to be limited and ineffective again. The plus for the Spurs - on the defensive end - is big man Tiago Splitter getting healthier. He played more than 19 minutes in Game 2. Offense easily comes to mind when talking about these two teams because of all the star power. But the Spurs ranked No. 3 in the league in fewest points allowed per game at 97. That number is lowered to 96.4 points per 100 possessions when Kawhi Leonard, the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year, is on the court. The Clippers improved their defense in Game 2. Leonard took home defensive player of the year honors, but DeAndre Jordan could be the best defensive big man in basketball. Jordan also is brutal from the free throw line making less than 40 percent. |
04-23-15 |
Chicago Bulls v. Milwaukee Bucks +3 | | 113-106 |
Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Bucks improved by 26 games from last season after finishing with an NBA-worst 15-67 record two seasons ago. They are well-coached, have a good bench and are past their early playoff jitters. This is an effort-team with heart. Now they are home for the first time in the series. This is the season for Milwaukee. The Bucks are shooting just 37.4 percent in the series. They have missed 25 of 33 shots from 3-point range. Chicago's defense is down a notch this season. The Bucks have just missed covering during the first two games. I see the Bucks shooting better and playing their best game of the series. This is their game to win. The Bucks have doubled teamed Pau Gasol and bottled up the Bulls inside. It has been Chicago's outside shooting and clutch 3-pointers - particularly by Jimmy Butler - that has kept the Bucks from covering. Butler is a fine player. But he's not a 28-point per game scorer. The Bulls may be without Nikola Mirotic, who suffered a knee and quad injury during Game 2. That would weaken an already thin Chicago bench.
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04-23-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Boston Celtics OVER 203.5 | Top | 103-95 |
Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
Boston doesn't have the height or any kind of defensive stopper to prevent LeBron James and Kyrie Irving from penetrating and either scoring inside or dishing off for open look jumpers. The Cavaliers have made 52 percent of their two-point shots in the series and that's with Kevin Love hitting only 8-of-22 from the floor. Love should pick up his scoring making Cleveland's offense even more deadly in this game. The Celtics are going to come out hard here. Brad Stevens has definitely gotten the most out of his team. Boston's offense has been efficient and could be even better with the home crowd behind them for the first time in the series. The Celtics have a winning home record. Stevens is astute enough to realize he can't stop Cleveland by slowing pace. So I see the Celtics speeding up their attack. This is the shortest point spread of the series. The oddsmaker is anticipating a fairly close game and so am I. That means there should be more scoring - if not fouling - during the final three minutes of the game. Because of Cleveland's big leads in the first two games there were only 14 combined points scored during the last three minutes of the first two games of the series. It's a plus for Boston that streaky Isaiah Thomas is playing well, scoring 22 points in each of the first two games while dishing off for 17 assists. The Celtics need to ride Thomas, who is small and a weak defender. Note, too, that Cleveland has gone over in 10 of its last 11 road games versus opponents with a winning home record.
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04-22-15 |
Portland Trailblazers v. Memphis Grizzlies -6 | Top | 82-97 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Memphis beat Portland, 100-86, in Sunday's Game 1 playoff game. I see the Grizzlies winning again by double digits at home in Game 2. The Trail Blazers have a key injury, are suffering from lack of confidence and do not match well against the physical Grizzlies. The Grizzlies could have buried the Trail Blazers by even more as they led by 24 points entering the final quarter. Memphis owns Portland. The Grizzlies have won and covered all five meetings this season, winning three of them by double-digits. Portland is 0-4 ATS in its last four visits to FedEx Forum. This is where the Trail Blazers really miss Wesley Matthews, their highly underrated, all-purpose swingman. The Grizzlies are able to clamp down on Damian Lillard while their tall, bruising front court players keep LaMarcus Aldridge in check. The Trail Blazers don't have any other consistent scoring weapons. C.J. McCollum certainly isn't ready for prime time and Arron Afflalo has missed the past four games with a sore shoulder. Even if he plays today his shooting can't be relied upon. Not only did Mike Conley show he could deal with his painful right heel that had kept him out of the last four games of the regular season, but defensive whiz Tony Allen also played strong, too, in Game 1 for the Grizzlies in his first action since March 27. Allen had three steals. Conley should perform even better now that he knocked some of the rust off. Backup Grizzlies point guard Beno Udrih, meanwhile, has been playing extremely well. He had 20 points, seven assists, seven rebounds and did not turn the ball over in 24:12 minutes of action in Game 1. The Grizzlies ranked No. 2 in fewest points allowed per game during the season. Portland is a finesse team, extremely vulnerable to the physical Grizzlies. Lillard missed 16 of 21 shots from the floor and had only three assists in nearly 40 minutes. Portland could manage just six fastbreak points in Game 1 as the Grizzlies controlled tempo. That's not going to change here. If anything it's going to get worse judging by the matchup issues the Trail Blazers face and their sagging body language, which shows a realistic lack of faith against this opponent in this tough setting. |
04-21-15 |
Washington Wizards v. Toronto Raptors OVER 191 | Top | 117-106 |
Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
You would think each of these teams could reach 96 points. I do. The Wizards averaged 98.5 points per game entering the postseason. Only five teams finished the regular season with a higher shooting percentage from the field than Washington. Toronto was the fourth-highest scoring team in the NBA averaging 104 points. Yet in Game 1 the Wizards and Raptors combined for just 164 points in regulation and 179 for the game. So now the oddsmaker has reduced this Game 2 total down around three points from the opening game over/under figure. I don't believe the adjustment is justified. There aren't going to be first-game jitters like in Game 1. Toronto is going to be better prepared with two full days to prepare. The Raptors are well-coached. They won't be blindsided by the Wizards' rotation moves that seemed to catch them off guard. Most of all the shooting is going to pick up. Washington's offensive strength is its backcourt of John Wall and Bradley Beal. They combined to shoot 11 of 41 (26.8 percent) from the floor. This was just an off-shooting game by both of them. Toronto ranked 26th in defensive field goal percentage - and that's playing in the much weaker Eastern Conference. Toronto's top offensive players - DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry and Lou Williams - shot even worse. They were a combined 12 for 46 (26 percent) from the field. This is what Lowry said following the game, "... But that's Game 1, you learn from the mistakes and you get better." Lowry also talked about playing at a faster pace and getting out in transition more. These guys are all proven offensive stars. Washington and Toronto aren't great defensive teams. I understand playoff basketball is much different than regular season. Defense and half-court styles are emphasized more especially in the Eastern Conference. But this total still is too much of an overreaction to Game 1's low score. It's way too much of a fluke for Wall, Beal, DeRozan, Lowry and Williams to all shoot so poorly again. . |
04-20-15 |
Milwaukee Bucks +8 v. Chicago Bulls | | 82-91 |
Loss | -105 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
The Bucks are going to come hard at the Bulls here. The intensity level has risen. Points should be hard to come by. As expected the young Bucks had first game playoff jitters - and it showed. They won't have that problem in Game 2. Their nerves have settled down. Derrick Rose scored 23 points and had seven assists in his first playoff game in three years. Rose still has some rust. I don't expect him to shoot as well as he did in Game 1. The Bucks had the right strategy double-teaming Pau Gasol. He had his lowest-scoring game in six weeks missing 12 of 17 shots from the field. The Bucks lost by 12 points in Game 1, but took six more shots than the Bulls. Milwaukee, though, shot only 39.3 percent from the floor and 69.3 percent from the foul line. Chicago shot 45.8 percent from the floor. The Bucks were the seventh-best shooting team from the field during the regular season averaging 45.9 percent while making 75.7 percent of their free throws. The Bulls have failed to cover 17 of the past 25 times following a point spread cover.
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04-20-15 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls UNDER 187 | Top | 82-91 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
The Bulls beat the Bucks, 103-91, in Game 1 of the series for a combined 194 points. There were 59 points scored during the first quarter. After that the teams settled down to average 45 points a quarter during the final three quarters. If the scoring pace for the last three periods of Game 1 follows form the combined total would be 180. Of course the key question is will it? I believe it will. Jason Kidd and Tom Thibodeau are defensive-minded coaches. These long-time division rivals know each other well. The under had cashed four straight times in this series until the Game 1 matchup. The intensity level - already high - is going to be raised a level. Kidd was not happy about how that first quarter played out even though Milwaukee trailed just 30-29 following it. He said the pace was too fast and set a bad tone for his team. The Bucks are not a big scoring team. They prefer a methodical pace. Their backcourt scoring is especially vulnerable after making the change from Brandon Knight to Michael Carter-Williams, a very low percentage shooter. He missed nine of 13 shots from the field in Game 1 bothered by Derrick Rose, an excellent defender. Milwaukee held Pau Gasol to his lowest-scoring game since March 1. The Bucks double-teamed Gasol, who shot just 5-of-17 from the floor scoring 10 points. However, Rose played much better than expected in his first playoff game since tearing his ACL in a 2012 playoff game. Rose scored 23 points while making three of seven shots from 3-point range. However, he shot only two free throws. I don't see Rose shooting as well in this Game 2 especially since 44 percent of his field goal attempts in Game 1 were launched from 3-point range. The Bucks are going to continue to double Gasol forcing Rose to spend a lot of time dribbling and then launching long, low-percentage shots.
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04-19-15 |
San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers OVER 205 | Top | 92-107 |
Loss | -115 | 58 h 57 m | Show |
The last time these teams met was at Staples Center on Feb. 19. The Clippers won, 119-115, for a combined 234 points. DeAndre Jordan missed 18 free throws in 28 attempts during that game. The Spurs are likely to send Jordan to the foul line a lot, too, in this matchup, which means frequent clock stoppages. The Clippers are the No. 2 offensive team in the league averaging nearly 107 points per game. They rank second in field goal percentage and third in 3-point percentage. The Spurs rank in the bottom eight in 3-point defense. San Antonio averages more than 103 points per game, while ranking third in field goal percentage and sixth in 3-point shooting. The Spurs have come on strong averaging 109.7 points in their last seven games. Tony Parker could be in line for a big game having had ample rest. The Clippers finally have gotten fully healthy. They are averaging 112 points during their last 13 games if you discount their 94-86 victory against the Grizzlies, the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. A point guard matchup of Parker versus Chris Paul should ensure a fast, up-tempo game.
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04-19-15 |
Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11 | | 100-113 |
Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
Cleveland closed 33-9 and in my view is the best team in the Eastern Conference. Nothing less than a championship is the Cavaliers' goal. So Cleveland doesn't want to mess around with Boston. The Celtics have yet to take the Cavaliers' best punch beating them twice during their last four games when Cleveland didn't play its best players. But now the Celtics are going to get their full lethal dose of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. Cleveland is not going to lack motivation here. Brad Stevens is turning out to be a fine coaching hire. The Celtics are kind of like a poor man's version of the Hawks with big men who pass and spread the floor bolstered with a good bench play and chemistry. However, the Celtics lack playoff experience. This is just their second nationally televised game of the season. The Celtics also have nowhere close to the Cavaliers' talent. Stevens has the Celtics ahead of schedule making the playoffs in just his second year at the helm. There is much rebuilding left to do, though, in Boston. The Celtics are not ready to make this big of a jump - stay close to an elite opponent in a road playoff game - yet. That may come next year. Not this season. |
04-19-15 |
Boston Celtics v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 203 | | 100-113 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
Look for LeBron James and Kyrie Irving to take advantage of Boston's lack of size by aggressively driving to the hoop. Nobody goes to the hoop stronger than James - and the Celtics lack the interior defense to stop him. Cleveland basically scored at will versus Boston when James played against them this season. The Cavaliers also have the outside shooters to knock down jumpers if James faces double-teams and kicks the ball out. Isaiah Thomas is averaging 19.3 points this month, but he isn't a good defender. Neither are a number of other Celtics, who will need to be in the lineup in order for Boston to try to keep up with Cleveland's offense. The Celtics should play loose with nothing to lose. They employ an up-tempo style, especially with Thomas, and that pace certainly will not be abandoned when the Celtics start falling behind against a vastly superior opponent. This is just the Celtics' second game on national television this season so they will likely be looking to keep running and trying to score right away if the game gets out of hand during garbage time.
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04-18-15 |
Milwaukee Bucks v. Chicago Bulls -7.5 | | 91-103 |
Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
Much is being made of Derrick Rose's sore knee, but the Bulls don't need Rose to be on his "A" game to cover this number against the Bucks. Milwaukee is thrilled to be in the playoffs after finishing with the worst record last season. Many of the key Bucks players lack the necessary playoff experience. Being on the road in Game 1 is a huge negative. The Bulls are a tough matchup for Milwaukee having covered five of the past six. The Bulls have been hiding in the weeds overshadowed for much of the year by the Hawks and now the surging Cavaliers. They are underrated at this point. |
04-15-15 |
Boston Celtics v. Milwaukee Bucks -4 | | 105-100 |
Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
On the surface this game is meaningless as both Boston and Milwaukee have clinched playoff berths. The spot, though, greatly favors the Bucks. Milwaukee has won three in a row and is motivated to finish with its first winning record in five years. Boston has a five-game winning streak, but will be resting starters. Out for sure is guard Avery Bradley, who left last night's game against Toronto with a left leg injury. "We'll play some guys a lot less," Boston coach Brad Stevens was quoted as saying after the Celtics nipped the Raptors, 95-93, at home Tuesday night on a last-second fall-away jumper by Jae Crowder. "I assume we'll go deep into our bench (Wednesday) night." Bucks coach Jason Kidd hasn't tipped his hand how long he'll play his starters, but finishing with a winning record is important for the Bucks. Milwaukee also has one of the stronger benches in the league. The Celtics have been winning, but a closer examination of their five-game winning streak is in order. Boston beat the Cavaliers twice when Cleveland was sitting out key players. The Celtics also defeated the lottery-bound Pistons and edged the Raptors twice with each game decided at the buzzer. Toronto was without key players in those losses to Boston, missing DeMar DeRozan last night and Kyle Lowery when it fell by one point in overtime. The Bucks are 2-0 versus the Celtics this season. They defeated them, 110-101, in Boston on April 3 when the Celtics played well. Boston isn't likely to come close to bringing it's "A" game in this matchup. |
04-15-15 |
Detroit Pistons -6 v. New York Knicks | Top | 112-90 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Detroit is 14 games better than New York. The Pistons average seven more points per game than the Knicks. The big question is can the Pistons cover a mid-size road number in this matchup? Detroit has the talent and coaching to do it. I also believe the Pistons have the motivation thanks to Stan Van Gundy while the Knicks need to lose this game. New York has potentially hurt its ping pong lottery chances by winning two in a row, including impressively defeating the Hawks in its last game two nights ago. OK, point made by Derek Fisher. Now reality has to sink in for the Knicks, who should be fat and happy even though this is their worst season in franchise history. A victory here could severely hurt the Knicks in the long run - something their management is well aware of. If New York beats the Pistons today and the Timberwolves and 76ers also lose, the Knicks would finished tied for the second-worst record with Philadelphia. That would mean a coin toss between the Knicks and 76ers for the No. 2 lottery seed. If the Knicks were to lose that coin flip they would drop down to the No. 3 seed and in the lottery drawing a team could fall three spots. That means the Knicks could potentially end up with the sixth pick in the draft despite having the worst record in franchise history. But lose here to the Pistons and that scenario is erased. The Pistons are a lottery team, too, but winning this game won't change their seeding placement. Detroit has revenge for a 121-115 home loss to the Knicks on Feb. 27. Detroit has a huge talent edge particularly upfront with Andre Drummond and upcoming free agent Greg Monroe, who really would like to shine in this game since there are heavy rumors that he's going to sign with the Knicks following the season. Van Gundy is an extremely prideful man. He doesn't want his season ending on a pair of sour notes with a loss to the lowly Knicks after getting blown out in their previous game against the Cavaliers, 109-97, this past Monday. The Pistons are 9-0 ATS following a double-digit defeat. The fiery Van Gundy has kept Detroit competitive down the stretch despite not making the playoffs. The Pistons have covered in nine of their last 13 games.
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04-14-15 |
Toronto Raptors +2.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 93-95 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
First of all, this line has moved considerably since I first put it out. I like Toronto - even as a short favorite - but I would only recommend the Raptors as a one unit wager now since the early value has been lost. Here is my analysis on the game: Outstanding job by the Celtics this season to make the playoffs. But the young Celtics aren't better than Toronto and will be hard-pressed not to avoid a letdown after clinching a playoff spot last night when the Nets lost to the Bulls. The Raptors are 2-1 versus Boston this season with their lone loss occurring in overtime by one point on a Boston basket at the buzzer 10 days ago at home. Toronto has plenty of incentive trailing Chicago by one-half game for the No. 3 seed in the East, quick revenge and looking to set a franchise record for victories during the regular season. Toronto is back playing well winning six of its last eight. Star Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry should be less rusty. This will be his third game back after missing seven in a row because of back trouble. Boston concludes its regular season tomorrow night at Milwaukee. The Celtics are a fantastic 10-1 the past 11 times when playing without rest. However, they are 4-7 during the first of consecutive games, which this matchup is. This record includes three consecutive losses at home. Overall, the Celtics have lost and failed to cover in four of their past six home contests.
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04-13-15 |
Los Angeles Lakers v. Sacramento Kings -3.5 | | 92-102 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
This is bad on bad, but the Lakers are worse than the Kings and really don't want to win due to lottery positioning.
The Kings are minus Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins, but the Lakers also are depleted and now are minus injured Wesley Johnson.
Sacramento concludes its season at the Lakers on Wednesday. There is no way George Karl, who is trying to make the Kings respectable, wants to go into the off-season having concluded the season with back-to-back losses to the Lakers. This is Sacramento's game to win. |
04-13-15 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Utah Jazz -10.5 | Top | 92-109 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
Utah cares about this game - with triple revenge motivation and this being its last home game of the season. Dallas doesn't care. The Mavericks are locked into the No. 7 seed and are expected to rest all of their key players. Monta Ellis, Dirk Nowitzki and Tyson Chandler all are expected to sit out. Reports have them not even traveling to the game. Chandler Parson isn't expected to play either because of a knee injury that has kept him out of the past four games. Dallas has failed to cover in eight of its last 11 road matchups. This is its third road contest in four days and second in two days. The Mavericks are 0-3 SU and ATS the past three times when playing without rest. The Jazz are playing well going 18-9 since the All-Star break. Utah ranks No. 1 in defense holding foes to 94.7 points per game. The Jazz have held 19 of their last 24 opponents under 93 points a game. No team has played stronger defense since mid-February. Utah is an excellent current form winning six of its last eight while going 6-1-1 ATS. The Jazz have scored 101 or more points in three of their last four games. This is a give-up, meaningless game for Dallas. The Jazz have everything going. |
04-12-15 |
Oklahoma City Thunder +3.5 v. Indiana Pacers | Top | 104-116 |
Loss | -105 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This matchup should have a playoff-type intensity with both teams desperately needing to win in their respective bids to earn a postseason berth - and I want the points with the Western Conference team. Oklahoma City has won its last five games versus Eastern Conference competition defeating the Raptors, Bulls, Celtics, Hawks and Heat. The Thunder are minus Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka. That knocks them out of elite status, but they still have talent with Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter and Dion Waiters. Their record would look much better if they were in the Eastern Conference despite their major injuries. Oklahoma City got back on track by rolling past Sacramento, 116-103, this past Thursday. Prior to beating the Kings, the Thunder had played the Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies and Mavericks. That's a brutal schedule. The Pacers aren't nearly as good as the Spurs, Rockets and Grizzlies. Yes, Indiana is playing well winning four in a row. But the Pacers have taken advantage of a weak schedule having faced six consecutive sub .500 opponents. Now they step up in a chalk role.
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04-12-15 |
Sacramento Kings +10 v. Denver Nuggets | | 111-122 |
Loss | -106 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
Sacramento has key injuries. DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay - the Kings' two best players by far - are both out. Denver, though, is 65-96 the past two seasons, including 29-50 this season. The Nuggets have dropped five of their last six. They should not be double-digit favorites against any team. This is going to be an emotional game for Kings coach George Karl, who coached the Nuggets for eight plus years and was let go in controversial fashion. This is the first time he's coaching against his former team. I believe he'll have his team ready and the Kings will play hard and with motivation, something they don't always do on the road. Sacramento has won during its last two visits to Denver. The last being this past November. The Nuggets still could be winded from playing an emotional double overtime game this past Friday night against Dallas in which there were 287 points scored. All but one of Denver's starters logged between 45-52 minutes in that wild game. |
04-11-15 |
Minnesota Timberwolves v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 213.5 | | 101-110 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
All trends point to an under here and so does the situation. The under has cashed 17 of the past 22 times in this series. Minnesota has gone under seven of the past nine times when playing a foe with a winning record, while the Warriors are 16-5-1 under the past 22 times facing a below .500 opponent. Golden State ranks first in defensive field goal percentage and is No. 3 in defending 3-pointers. The prideful Warriors didn't like surrendering 105 points to Portland in their last game. Leandro Barbosa won't play for Golden State and the Warriors probably will limit Stephen Curry's minutes as there is nothing at stake in this matchup and it's likely to be a blowout. The Timberwolves could be missing Kevin Martin. Minnesota has been held to less than 100 points in six of its last seven games. |
04-11-15 |
Philadelphia 76ers +14.5 v. Chicago Bulls | Top | 107-114 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
This is an awkward spot for the Bulls. They just returned home following a three-game road trip that culminated in a satisfying victory two days ago against Miami. Following this game, the Bulls have a more challenging matchup on Monday at Brooklyn. This is Chicago's lone home matchup during a one-week span. That could mean reduced focus since the Bulls head right back to the road after just arriving home yesterday. This isn't necessarily a kill spot for the Bulls, who are playing for the third time in four days. They just want to win and get the rust of Derrick Rose - who has missed 16 of 24 shots from the floor since returning from injury two games ago. The 76ers won't have Nerlens Noel due to a sprained ankle. But the 76ers still are holding out hope of reaching 20 victories, which is a big deal for them. Philadelphia has been idle since Wednesday when it was blasted at home by the Wizards, 119-90. So motivation, effort and prep time shouldn't be lacking. The 76ers have covered 11 of the last 15 times following an ATS loss. They also are 14-3 ATS after losing by 10 or more points at home. The Bulls haven't been good in this role failing to cover 17 of the past 25 times when going against under .500 teams. |
04-10-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies -3 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 89-88 |
Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is the first of a three-game road trip for the Grizzlies, who are locked into a close race for playoff seeding in the West. Memphis could tumble all the way from being the No. 2 seed to being the sixth seed. That could happen if the Grizzlies lose here. Because after this game, the Grizzlies play a hot and well-rested Clippers team on Saturday and then take on the NBA-best Warriors on Monday. The Grizzlies are well aware of this. They know this is a game they can not afford to lose. Their motivation should be even more increased having lost at home to the Jazz, 93-82, last month. Utah is playing well even though it is out of the playoff race. But the Jazz are stepping way up in class here. During their last five games, the Jazz have gone against the Timberwolves, Nuggets, Suns and Kings twice. None of those teams can play defense. Memphis can. The Jazz need sharpshooter Gordon Hayward to hit his perimeter shots to beat at elite opponent. Hayward has been having a career season, but now has hit the wall. He's missed 11 of 14 shots from the floor during the last two games and Jazz coach Quin Snyder is restricting his minutes. I don't see any of the Jazz's young and inconsistent shooters stepping up against such a quality defensive foe. The Grizzlies yield 95.1 points per game, second-best in the NBA.
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04-10-15 |
Phoenix Suns v. New Orleans Pelicans -9 | | 75-90 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
It's official now. The Suns aren't making the playoffs for the fifth consecutive season. It looked like the Suns were going to end this dry spell when they won 28 of their first 48 games. But Phoenix management tinkered with their roster making three deals that so far haven't worked out. The result is an 11-20 mark in their last 31 games. The Suns have injuries with Brandon Knight and Alex Len out. Eric Bledsoe, their key player, isn't producing. Morale is bad. So is the defense, which ranks 26th, and the Suns can't always be counted on to play hard. They have lost three games by 27 points this season. New Orleans, on the other hand, is extremely motivated. The Pelicans are off their worst loss of the season, losing 110-74 to the Grizzlies this past Wednesday. They are tied with the Thunder for the final playoff spot in the West, but the Thunder has the easier schedule. The Pelicans still have to play the Rockets and Spurs. They certainly can't afford to slip up here at home against a demoralized Suns squad. If you discount road games against the Trail Blazers and Grizzlies, the Pelicans are averaging 105.8 points per game during their last five games. Anthony Davis should prove unstoppable against a small Phoenix lineup minus Len. Phoenix has surrendered at least 107 points in four of its last six games.
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04-09-15 |
Chicago Bulls +1 v. Miami Heat | Top | 89-78 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Both teams have playoff incentive. Miami is favored because its home and Chicago is playing without rest. But the Bulls are the better team and could have their starting lineup intact again if Derrick Rose plays as expected. Rose got some rust off last night, but the Bulls lost to Orlando. That was their third consecutive road loss. They are 0-2 on this road swing, which concludes with this matchup. Chicago hasn't lost four road games in a row all season. The Bulls desperately don't want to go 0-3 on this road trip either. The Bulls' starting lineup is trying to get back in sync. Chicago is 15-5 when it's regular starters have opened the game. The Bulls are playing for the second consecutive night. However, they just had a short trip from Central Florida to South Florida and were idle on Monday and Tuesday. So there shouldn't be a fatigue factor. Rose's minutes may be limited, but Miami is far more banged-up. Several Miami players are battling illness, including Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers. They may not play. In addition, several other key Miami players aren't 100 percent including Hassan Whiteside (hand) and Luol Deng (knee). Remember, Chris Bosh is out for the season. You know Miami is a MASH unit when Dwayne Wade could be their healthiest player right now. The Heat are just 3-7 in their last 10 games. Miami is only 1-4 in its last five games failing to cover the spread in any of those contests. Chicago is 12-5 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game. The Bulls should be embarrassed about losing to lowly Orlando. They have the defensive intensity to take advantage of Miami's weak offense. Only two teams average fewer points per game than Miami. The Heat are going to need to hit their perimeter shots with defensive ace Joakim Noah patrolling the middle for Chicago. Miami, though, is averaging only 18 percent from beyond the arc in its last three games and has missed 30 of 35 shots from 3-point range in their two matchups this season versus the Bulls, who rank fifth in 3-point defensive field goal percentage. |
04-08-15 |
Minnesota Timberwolves +17 v. Portland Trail Blazers | | 91-116 |
Loss | -108 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Minnesota has a cluster injury problem. The plus to that, though, is the Timberwolves have motivated youngsters playing for their futures with fresh legs. They also have probable Rookie-of-the-Year Andrew Wiggins, who has scored 20 or more points in seven of his last eight games, and veteran sharpshooter Kevin Martin, who scored 37 points last night. The Trail Blazers are enduring a crazy traveling scheduling brought on by a make-up game at Brooklyn this past Monday. The Trail Blazers had to make the long trip to the East Coast and immediately fly back to the West Coast. They have a far more crucial game on deck Thursday night against the Warriors in Golden State. This marks their fourth game in six days. I expect the Trail Blazers to have all hands on deck except of course for injured Wesley Matthews. But Portland has a weak bench and no reason to have their starters log major minutes. The Timberwolves are the worst defensive team in the NBA although their porous defense may improve as their inexperienced players keep learning to play together. Portland, however, hasn't been great defensively either ranking 20th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break. It's hard to believe, but the Timberwolves held the Trail Blazers to their lowest-scoring game of the season in a 90-82 victory. Minnesota has defeated Portland in two of its three meetings this season. The Trail Blazers have defeated the Timberwolves at home six consecutive. The winning margin in those games is 12 points, much lower than this point spread.
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04-08-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans v. Memphis Grizzlies -4.5 | | 74-110 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
This is a big game for both teams, but the situation is ripe for Memphis. The Grizzlies have been idle since Saturday. They've had all this time to reflect on a bad 92-83 home loss to the Wizards in their last game. The Grizzlies have been preparing hard for this matchup. They consider it a playoff game. Memphis has some banged-up players, but the extra time off between games should help. New Orleans is in a dogfight with Oklahoma City for the last Western Conference playoff spot. Right now the Pelicans are there at the No. 8 and final seed after an emotional 103-100 victory against the Warriors last night. The Pelicans' best players are fragile. Memphis could be the most physical team in the NBA. It's the fourth game in six days for New Orleans and second in two nights. The Pelicans have played without rest twice since March 20 and lost by 16 points to the Warriors and by nine to the Trail Blazers in those games, both of which were on the road. The last time the Pelicans played at Memphis was back in November when they lost 93-81. New Orleans is 2-5 ATS the last seven times it has played a foe with a winning record. The Grizzlies are in their own battle for playoff seeding. Following this game, the Grizzlies embark on a three-game road swing playing the Jazz, Clippers and Warriors. That's not going to be easy so they desperately need to win this home game.
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04-08-15 |
Atlanta Hawks +6 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 114-111 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
The perception is the Hawks are going to roll over for the Nets. That's not going to be the case here. The Hawks are vastly better than Brooklyn even not having Paul Millsap for this game. Atlanta is 3-0 this season versus the Nets winning those matchups by a combined 66 points, an average victory margin of 22 points. Atlanta has a strong bench and wants to establish a good rhythm going into the playoffs. Losing doesn't foster that. The Hawks blew out the Suns last night. None of Atlanta's players logged more than 27 minutes. Another reason why the Hawks don't want to lose in this spot is they have the right to swap draft picks with the Nets. They would do that if the Nets missed the playoffs. So the Hawks can hurt Brooklyn's playoff chances with a victory. That might have factored when Atlanta hammered the Nets, 131-99, this past Saturday. |
04-07-15 |
Los Angeles Lakers +17.5 v. Los Angeles Clippers | Top | 100-105 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
These two teams just met this past Sunday and the Clippers blew out the Lakers, 106-78. That game opened as low as Clippers minus 11 1/2. Now look at where the point spread is. The Clippers enjoy blowing out their long-time city rival. They've beaten the Lakers six straight times and they know they can win this game just by showing up. The Clippers won't play again until Saturday. That's three straight days off, which is extremely rare this late in the season. So I see the Clippers being overconfident while also not being fully focused thinking ahead of how to spend their upcoming free time. The Lakers are going to play hard here off Sunday night's embarrassment. This is what point guard Jeremy Lin said following that 28-point loss to the Clippers, "What happened tonight (Sunday) is definitely not a good feeling, so we want to make sure that doesn't happen again on Tuesday." The Lakers are 11-3-1 (78%) ATS in their past 15 games following a loss. They have covered 63 percent during the past 20 times they've been an underdog. Shooting guard Jamal Crawford is expected to play for the Clippers after missing the last 17 games with a calf injury. Crawford is an instant offensive player off the bench, but he figures to be rusty here. So his appearance would be a plus for the Lakers since he's a gunner and would take a lot of shots. One of the keys to the Clippers blowing out the Lakers this past Sunday was they controlled point guard Jordan Clarkson holding him to two points and three assists in 26 minutes. Clarkson struggled versus the Clippers' pressure and seemed taken aback whenever Clippers' big men DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin jumped out to double team him. Clarkson has had a strong rookie year. Look for him to handle the Clippers much better after studying film and knowing what he's going to be facing. He won't be taken by surprise the second time around. Clarkson is the key cog for the Lakers. Keep in mind, too, that although the Clippers are the home team this is the Lakers' home-court, too. |
04-05-15 |
Los Angeles Clippers -12.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | Top | 106-78 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
First it should be pointed out this isn't a true home game for the Lakers since both teams play at Staples Center. The Lakers have run out of gas. LA is full of inexperience and lacks talent aside from promising point guard Jordan Clarkson. They need an all-out effort to keep within point spread range. The Clippers aren't going to allow that to happen. They love to bury the Lakers having won the last five meetings by an average of 27.8 points per game. They are 2-0 versus the Lakers this season with a winning margin of 16 points per game. The Clippers have their offense rolling with Chris Paul, J.J. Redick and Blake Griffin all playing at high levels. They are averaging 113.7 points in their last nine games. The Lakers can't stop them defensively ranking 28th in points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. The Lakers are 0-2 this month. Both of their defeats were bad losses at home - by 21 points to the Pelicans and by 30 points to the Trail Blazers this past Friday. The Lakers actually don't want to win. That's because they hold the fourth-worst record in the NBA. If they do not finish with one of the five worst records they would lose their top pick this year to the 76ers because it's not top-five protected.
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04-03-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans v. Sacramento Kings +6 | Top | 101-95 |
Push | 0 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
All the attention and focus for this matchup is on New Orleans. The Pelicans have won three in a row and are battling hard with Oklahoma City for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Pelicans have blown out their last three opponents, including the Kings last Friday at home, 102-88. Not much is being said about the Kings because they are a lottery team and have lost three in a row. The Kings also will be missing Rudy Gay, their only other star besides DeMarcus Cousins. But there are some beneath the radar factors that point to Sacramento as being the right side here. The Kings' last two road defeats were to the Grizzlies and Rockets. Certainly no shame in losing to those Western Conference powers. Those two teams are especially strong playing at home. The Kings played the Rockets extremely tough despite not having Gay, losing 115-111, two nights ago. Sacramento leads the NBA in free throw attempts, but shot nine fewer free throws than the Rockets did. Sacramento has won its last four home games. The Kings fit the standard category of being much stronger at home than on the road. They have recent revenge, too, having gotten blown out at New Orleans just seven days ago. Even with that loss, the Kings still have defeated New Orleans in four of the last six meetings. The Pelicans have a bad history in Sacramento going 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 visits. This is the Kings' first home game since March 24. More evidence than a strong effort should be forthcoming. The Pelicans, by contrast, are in a flat spot. They just buried the Kings a week ago and then they buried the hapless Lakers in their last game this past Wednesday. Following this matchup, the Pelicans are at the Trail Blazers on Saturday. That's followed by a home contest for them against the Warriors and a road game versus the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Those are all far more challenging games and the Pelicans, a youthful bunch lacking veteran savvy, can't help but be looking ahead. Anthony Davis is a monster. But so is Cousins. This is the rare time where Davis can have his points and outstanding all-around play matched by a fellow big man.
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04-01-15 |
Chicago Bulls -4.5 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 91-95 |
Loss | -105 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
The Bulls are in the hunt for the No. 2 playoff seed in the East. The Bucks are trying to hold on for a playoff spot. Not only is there a major class difference between these two teams, but the Bulls are in much better current form. Aided by the recent return of Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, Chicago has won and covered five of its last six. The Bulls are averaging 104.5 points during their last six games while giving up an average of 92.3 points a game during this span. Milwaukee has dropped eight of its last 10. That mark would be 1-9 if not for Khris Middleton long 3-pointer at the buzzer to nip Miami by one point at home during this time frame. The Bucks are giving up nearly 104 points during their last seven games. They don't have the offense to make up for a defense that has sprung leaks. Chicago has been idle since Saturday. So the Bulls should be rested and well prepared. The Bulls have dominated the Bucks in Milwaukee winning the past nine times there. The Bulls are 3-0 against the Bucks this season winning by an average margin of 8.3 points. |
03-31-15 |
Indiana Pacers v. Brooklyn Nets UNDER 199 | Top | 106-111 |
Loss | -105 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
Frank Vogel is one of the more underrated coaches in the NBA. The Pacers have always been strong defensively under Vogel. They rank fifth this season in giving up the fewest points per game and are fourth in defensive field goal percentage. But when these teams met just 10 days ago at Indianapolis the Nets won, 123-111, by making 61.3 percent of their shots from the floor. That was the highest percentage the Pacers have ever allowed at home during their history, which goes back to their crazy American Basketball Association days. Vogel has stressed nothing but defense since the Pacers last played two days ago. This should be an intense matchup anyways with the final playoff spot in the East on the line along with a tiebreaker between the teams. These are two defensive clubs whose offenses have been overachieving lately. I see a correction happening in this matchup. The Nets have scored 107 and 106 points, respectively, during their last two games going against the Lakers and Cavaliers. The Lakers rank third-from-last in defense. The Nets ambushed the Cavaliers, who were at the end of a three-game road trip and had just beat physical Memphis by 22 points. During their previous two games, though, the Nets put up 91 points each against the Hornets and Celtics, two Eastern Conference clubs similar to the Pacers fighting for a playoff spot. That's more indicative of Brooklyn's offense. The Nets rank 23rd offensively, are a below average free throw shooting team and rank 28th in 3-point percentage. The Pacers have broken triple digits in their last five games. I don't see that continuing. They rank 24th offensively. Prior to their triple digit streak, they had failed to reach 99 points in nine of their last 12 games. Indiana could catch a break, too, and not face Deron Williams. He's ill and missed Monday's practice.
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03-30-15 |
Utah Jazz v. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 185.5 | Top | 104-84 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Utah's defense has slipped. The Jazz are allowing an average of 98 points in regulation during their last five games. The Timberwolves are much better offensively than defensively. They rank in the top 10 in free throw percentage. Minnesota is averaging 106 points per game in its last four games at Target Center. The Timberwolves' offense could get a boost if Ricky Rubio can play after missing the past six games. Utah's front line could get a boost if Derrick Favors is able to play after missing last game with back spasms. No team gives up more points in the paint than Minnesota. The Timberwolves also rank last in defensive scoring and defensive field goal percentage. They are fourth from last in 3-point defensive field goal percentage so Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke should be in line for big games. Minnesota has permitted triple digits in 14 of its last 16 games. This is the fourth meeting between these two teams. Each of the previous three went above this total. |
03-30-15 |
Boston Celtics v. Charlotte Hornets UNDER 195.5 | | 116-104 |
Loss | -105 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
These teams are more about defense than offense. Both are digging hard to make the playoffs so I'm expecting an intense matchup with a lot of defensive emphasis. The line is higher than it should be because of the oddsmaker factoring in the Hornets' 115-100 win against the Hawks two days ago. The Hawks, though, rested their starters and both teams shot uncommonly well. So that result is highly misleading. The Hornets are not strong from the perimeter. That hasn't been cured with the return of Kemba Walker, who has made just 32.6 percent of his shots from the field since coming back 10 games ago following knee surgery. The under has cashed in five of Boston's last six road games. The last five played in Charlotte during this series have gone under as well. |
03-29-15 |
Oklahoma City Thunder v. Phoenix Suns -115 | | 109-97 |
Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is the Suns' season if they want to make the playoffs. Oklahoma City won't have the desperation Phoenix does with a 2 1/2-game lead on the Pelicans and three-game lead on the Suns for the final playoff spot in the West. The Thunder have multiple injuries with Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka and Nick Collison all out. They don't defend nearly as well minus Ibaka and are 1-7 in their last eight road contests, including losing the past four. The only road win they have during this span was against the hapless Lakers. Oklahoma City also has failed to cover 16 of the last 22 times when on the road against a foe with a winning home mark. Russell Westbrook is putting up insane numbers - but at the expense of his teammates. Unlike other superstars such as LeBron James, Westbrook doesn't make his supporting cast better. The Suns play on the road at Portland and Golden State in their next two games following this one. They are going to be underdogs in those contests making this a must-win spot. The Suns have beaten the Thunder the past three times at home. It would be an added plus if the Suns get back Brandon Knight. |
03-29-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies +8 v. San Antonio Spurs | Top | 89-103 |
Loss | -108 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
First off, this isn't a fade on San Antonio. The Spurs are making their move playing their best basketball with Kawhi Leonard healthy and Tony Parker at long last stepping up his game. My handicap is entirely based on the Grizzlies meeting this challenge, getting what I see as an overly generous amount of points. Memphis has gotten blown out in its last two games by the Warriors and Cavaliers. I rank those as the two best teams in the NBA right now. The Grizzlies aren't in that highest of tiers. But they are an elite team and at the very next level with San Antonio. The Grizzlies have surrendered 111 and 107 points during those losses to Golden State and Cleveland. They still rank No. 2 in scoring defense. Memphis hasn't allowed three consecutive triple-digit games in regulation all season. This is a stop-the-pain game for them with their pride on the line. Memphis has proven itself before versus upper tier opponents going 7-2-1 ATS the past 10 times facing foes with a winning percentage above .600. The Grizzlies hold the No. 2 seed in the West, but just by one-half game over Houston. The urgency factor for Memphis can't be underestimated. The Grizzlies host Sacramento, which has lost 11 of its last 14 road games, on Monday. That should be a Memphis victory. The Grizzlies then won't play again until Friday. This is the game they need for their self-respect. Their defense and an inflated point spread put me on them in this spot.
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03-29-15 |
Philadelphia 76ers +17 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | | 86-87 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Open the season with 17 straight losses and you're marked as a terrible team. That's the case with Philadelphia. The 76ers rank as among the worst teams in the NBA. But they are better than perceived, have under-the-radar talent and lately have been proving to be a money-maker covering eight of their last 13 games. They also are 4-0 ATS the last four times taking 15 or more points. Philly is a respectable 5-6 straight-up in its last 11 games. Now I realize those victories came against the Hawks, who were resting three starters, and versus four other opponents with a combined winning percentage of less than .400. But do realize, too, the 76ers are much improved. Nerlens Noel is making a late challenge for rookie of the year honors. He's averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds per game during his last five games. Another rookie, Jerami Grant, has been displaying potential lately and Robert Covington can be a capable scorer. The 76ers, unlike many veteran teams, have fresh legs at this late stage of the season because of their extreme youth. Before getting blown out by the Clippers at home, 119-98, on Friday night the 76ers had held their previous five foes to an average of 91.4 points per game. Talking perception again. The 76ers aren't perceived as being a prideful team - just a rebuilding lottery squad. Yet they are 13-3 ATS the last 16 times following a double-digit defeat. I see them playing hard here following that bad home loss. They want to do their best against LeBron James. This is an awkward scheduling spot for the Cavaliers. This is their first game back from a three-game road trip. Cleveland's next game isn't until Thursday. So focus could be a problem for the Cavaliers. Yes, the Cavaliers can beat the 76ers just by showing up with their huge talent edge. But covering this big of a spread is a different matter. The 76ers haven't been this big of underdogs in nearly two months. They are a different team since then.
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03-28-15 |
Denver Nuggets +9 v. Portland Trail Blazers | Top | 114-120 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
The Nuggets are a much improved team since Melvin Hunt replaced clueless Brian Shaw. Denver is 8-6 under Hunt and can prove dangerous in the right spot. This is a good spot for the Nuggets. Both Denver and Portland are off excellent victories last night. But the Trail Blazers carry a much higher fatigue rating. This marks their fourth game in five days and first home game following consecutive road wins against the Jazz and Suns. Portland has a weak bench - made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews - and plays again on Monday at home against Phoenix while the Nuggets won't play again until Wednesday. That should ensure an all-out effort by the Nuggets. Yes, motivation can be a factor for non-playoff teams such as Denver, but the Nuggets have triple revenge incentive. They are a much different team now than the previous three times the Trail Blazers played and defeated them. Ty Lawson must play well for the Nuggets to be competitive. There are strong indications that is going to happen. Lawson has been performing well putting up 18 points and nine assists in an easy victory against the Jazz Friday night. This is what Hunt said about Lawson following that win, "The kid is playing some of the best basketball I've seen him play. That speed is special. It's a special weapon." Lawson may be the quickest point guard in the NBA. He's caused Portland problems in the past averaging 24.7 points and nine assists in the first three meetings. Portland has an excellent point guard, too, in Damian Lillard. But Lillard has logged major minutes this season and the four games in five days factor could affect him a great deal against Lawson. Under Hunt, the Nuggets have gone 7-1 ATS the past eight times following a straight-up victory. They also have covered in five of their last seven road matchups.
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03-28-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 201 | | 108-95 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Golden State is averaging 112.6 points per game in its last six games and now Klay Thompson has regained his shooting touch. The over has cashed in seven of the Warriors' last nine games. The Bucks just faced four defensive-minded Eastern Conference teams - the Pacers, Heat, Cavaliers and Nets. Now they go up-tempo against a Western Conference club. The last time the Bucks played an elite Western Conference team they lost 114-103 to San Antonio at home five games ago. |
03-27-15 |
Utah Jazz v. Denver Nuggets OVER 188.5 | | 91-107 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
Utah's defense has slipped. The Jazz are giving up 101.3 points per game during their last three games.
The Nuggets can be unpredictable on offense, but they are committed now to playing at a faster tempo. Defensively, the Nuggets rank 27th giving up an average of 103.8 points per game.
Gordon Hayward was healthy during the shoot around and is expected to play for the Jazz, which is a huge boost to their offense. |
03-27-15 |
Dallas Mavericks v. San Antonio Spurs -8.5 | Top | 76-94 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
I can't see San Antonio losing for the second time in three nights to Dallas. The big question is can the Spurs cover this high number? I believe they can based on how well they've been playing - especially at home - and given Dallas' current road woes. The Mavericks are 1-5 in their last six road contests with the lone victory coming against the Lakers, who have the fourth-worst record in the NBA. During this span, four of Dallas' road losses have come by 15 or more points. Dallas has failed to cover in its last six road matchups and last won at San Antonio during the regular season in 2010, a span of eight consecutive defeats. The Mavericks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games versus foes with a winning home mark. Kawhi Leonard is healthy and Tony Parker finally is playing better. Those factors have helped turn the Spurs back into being an elite force. They are 9-1 in their last 10 home games, 7-3 ATS, with the only loss coming to the red-hot Cavaliers when Kyrie Irving went off for 57 points. The Spurs followed up their loss to the Mavericks this past Tuesday night with a smashing 130-91 victory over Oklahoma City two nights ago. Gregg Popovich is stepping on the gas. I don't see the Spurs regressing here.
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03-27-15 |
Detroit Pistons v. Orlando Magic OVER 197 | | 111-97 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
Detroit has scored at least 105 points in four of its last five games. This scoring burst has coincided with Greg Monroe being out. Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Andre Drummond have all been thriving offensively since Monroe went out.
Orlando's defense has gone back downhill. Orlando is giving up an average of 109.6 points during its last six games. The Magic's offense received a boost, though, with Tobias Harris back.
The over has cashed in six of Orlando's last seven home games. |
03-26-15 |
Indiana Pacers v. Milwaukee Bucks OVER 186.5 | Top | 107-111 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
Both teams were playing better defense when they met two weeks ago in Indiana. The Pacers won that meeting, 109-103, in overtime. But if you discount the overtime, there were 192 points scored in regulation, which went above the 188 closing over/under. Fast forward and now the teams meet again with a slightly lower total listed. Yet, neither club is in good defensive form. The Pacers are giving up an average of 108.1 points per game in their last six games. The Bucks held Miami to 88 points in their last game, but during their previous three games surrendered an average of 107.6 points a game. Both teams have strong benches. Milwaukee's reserves should score more with O.J. Mayo back healthy and the likely possibility that Jared Dudley also will return beginning with this game. This game is in the near pick range so overtime remains more of a possibility just like when they last met. |
03-25-15 |
Sacramento Kings +8 v. Phoenix Suns | | 108-99 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
Sacramento has won three in a row. Phoenix has won four straight. So something has to give. The Kings are not a good road team, but Phoenix isn't strong enough to lay this many points especially on the defensive end where it holds foes to fewer than two points less per game than Sacramento. Barring a semi-miracle, the Suns aren't a playoff team. If you discount the Suns' 117-point performance against Houston two games ago, they are averaging 89.4 points during their last seven games. The Suns have a losing spread record at home during their past 15 games at U.S. Airways Center. Phoenix has bigger games on deck hosting Portland on Friday and Oklahoma City on Sunday. The Suns may still be without point guard Brandon Knight, who has missed the last six games with an ankle injury. You can't judge the Kings by their 25-45 overall record. They are far more respectable since George Karl replaced Tyrone Corbin. Rudy Gay is thriving under Karl's system and DeMarcus Cousins is putting up superstar numbers. Cousins is a matchup nightmare for the undersized Suns and center Alex Len, who is just returning from an ankle injury. |
03-25-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers v. Memphis Grizzlies +2 | | 111-89 |
Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Cleveland is hot winning 27 of its last 33. The Cavaliers are comfortably in second place in the Eastern Conference with little chance of moving up or down. The Cavs very well may be the best team in the East. But they should not be road chalk against Memphis. The Grizzlies also are playing well winning five of their last six, including the past three winning all five of these games by 11 or more points. The Grizzlies have the second-best record in the much stronger Western Conference, which is a surprise to some. The Grizzlies have a chip on their shoulder and want to prove themselves versus elite competition, which is what they face here. It's also a revenge spot for Memphis, which lost 105-91 on the road to the Cavaliers on Dec. 21 when it was missing Zach Randolph and had not traded for Jeff Green yet. Memphis has a strong home-court. The Grizzlies have won 27 of their 34 home games, while Cleveland is three games above .500 on the road - and that's playing in the much weaker Eastern Conference. The Grizzlies present match up problems for every team with their No. 2 ranked defense and physical front line. Cleveland gives up 45.4 points in the paint on the road, which ranks fourth from the bottom. No team scores more points inside than Memphis thanks to Randolph and Marc Gasol. Randolph is a double-double machine and is likely to be guarded by Kevin Love, a weak defender. The Cavaliers have been taking far more 3-pointers since acquiring gunner J.R. Smith. The Grizzlies hold foes to less than 33 percent shooting from 3-point range at FedEx Forum. That figure would rank No. 2 in the league if it included all of Memphis' games. |
03-25-15 |
Miami Heat +5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 93-86 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Expect the Heat to play hard in order to make amends for blowing a 16-point fourth-quarter lead last night on the road against the Bucks in an 89-88 loss. Milwaukee pulled out the victory on a 3-pointer by Khris Middleton at the buzzer. Miami is 4-1-2 ATS the past seven times when playing without rest. This is a crucial game for the Heat especially following that loss to Milwaukee as the Heat, Bucks and Celtics are all fighting for a playoff spot. The Heat are 0-2 on their current four-game road trip having lost to Oklahoma City, which plays extremely well at home, this past Sunday. Before these past two games, though, the Heat had been playing well having won three in a row defeating the Cavaliers, Trail Blazers and Nuggets. Miami may not have center Hassan Whiteside, who suffered a cut between two fingers against the Bucks and had to have 10 stiches. If he is able to play it would be a nice plus. But I like the Heat covering this number even if Whiteside doesn't play. Boston has a small front line without Jared Sullinger. The Heat wouldn't have problems matching up to the Celtics in the paint with Udonis Haslem, Michael Beasley and Luol Deng. Dwayne Wade will be the best player on the court and he's been playing well. The Celtics are expected to get back point guard Isaiah Thomas, who has missed the past eight games because of a bad back. Boston went 5-3 in those games. Thomas is a streak shooter who figures to be rusty. He's also a ball hog so it's going to take time for the Celtics to get back in sync with him running things instead of Evan Turner. |
03-24-15 |
Golden State Warriors v. Portland Trail Blazers UNDER 207.5 | | 122-108 |
Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Portland ranks fifth in defensive field goal percentage. Golden State is No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage.
It's going to be even more difficult for the Trail Blazers to score as they likely will be missing LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum and Chris Kaman, who doesn't play any defense. All three players are doubtful.
The under has cashed in 23 of Portland's last 35 home games while the under has cashed in eight of Golden State's last 11 road games. |
03-24-15 |
Los Angeles Lakers +10.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 117-127 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
Oklahoma City has lost much of its star power and depth. That's not a good combination when laying a big number especially with a huge game on deck tomorrow night. But that's the situation the Thunder are in minus Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison and now guard Andre Roberson, who suffered an ankle injury on Sunday and will be out several weeks. The Thunder are playing well having won three in a row, including impressively beating hot Miami at home this past Sunday. This, though, is a flat spot for them especially when they play at San Antonio on Wednesday in a much more challenging matchup. The Lakers have lost nine of their last 11, but are off a 101-87 home victory against the 76ers this past Sunday. Quietly, the Lakers have been a huge money-maker this month cashing 11 of their last 14, including their last five road games. They have not lost by more than seven points during their last 14 games.
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03-23-15 |
Boston Celtics v. Brooklyn Nets OVER 203 | | 110-91 |
Loss | -110 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
Scoring is up, defense is down for both of these teams.
The Nets have scored at least 122 points in three of their last four games. Brooklyn has allowed an average of 108.7 points per game in regulation during its past four games.
The Celtics have allowed an average of 109.3 points during their last three games. Boston gets back point guard Marcus Smart. |
03-22-15 |
Philadelphia 76ers v. Los Angeles Lakers OVER 192.5 | | 87-101 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Here we have two lottery teams with nothing to lose. The 76ers are used to playing half-court Eastern Conference ball. Now they get to play an up-tempo Western Conference team that doesn't play defense. The Lakers rank 28th in points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. The last time the 76ers played a team from the Western Conference was five games ago and they scored 114 points off Sacramento, an equally bad defense. The Lakers have faced three strong defenses in a row - the Hawks, Warriors and Jazz. They scored 105 points on the Warriors, who are No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. The Lakers have been idle since Thursday so they should bring a lot of energy. |
03-21-15 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Memphis Grizzlies -3.5 | | 86-97 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Both teams played last night. The Trail Blazers lost to the Magic and Memphis upset Dallas on the road by 11 points. The Grizzlies are better equipped to handle this matchup of teams playing without rest. The Trail Blazers are playing their fifth road game in seven days. Their weak bench is made weaker by the absence of Wesley Matthews. Memphis' depth has improved with Mike Conley and Vince Carter back. The Grizzlies are a much better team with Conley in the lineup. He had missed four games with an ankle injury until returning last night versus Dallas. Portland is not a good road team as evidenced by their 16-17 away mark, 15-18 ATS. Memphis has one of the strongest home courts in the league. The Trail Blazers rely heavily on LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Both played big minutes last night. The Grizzlies are a tough matchup for the Trail Blazers because they have excellent physical frontcourt defenders and Tony Allen is a defensive whiz who can defend Lillard. Memphis has won eight of the last nine in the series, covering seven of the past eight. They are 3-0 this season against the Trail Blazers.
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03-21-15 |
Chicago Bulls -2 v. Detroit Pistons | Top | 91-107 |
Loss | -110 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
The Bulls have been up and down. Now they are on an up cycle. They've won two in a row beating the Pacers and Raptors at home. Taj Gibson returned in last night's 16-point victory against the Raptors after missing the past 10 games with an elbow injury. All-Star guard Jimmy Butler could return tonight. Chicago is trying to earn the No. 2 seed in the East. The Bulls can't afford to slip against the lowly Pistons, losers of 11 of their last 12. Chicago is 20-14 on the road. Detroit is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark. The Bulls are not a great team. But they are still several tiers above Detroit even without Butler. Chicago is 9-6 minus Butler. The Bulls look much better when not going against elite Western Conference opponents. The Pistons are definitely a team they can handle. The Pistons are a dead team. They lost 94-83 in their last game to the 76ers this past Wednesday. The Pistons are one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA and are far less effective inside with Greg Monroe out. Detroit was outscored 40-20 in the paint by the 76ers. Monroe missed that game with a strained knee and is doubtful to play against the Bulls. |
03-20-15 |
Memphis Grizzlies +3.5 v. Dallas Mavericks | | 112-101 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
The Grizzlies have had two full days to stew about their loss to Detroit this past Tuesday. The Pistons ended a 10-game losing streak with that victory. Dallas isn't good at home - covering 42 percent of its games at American Airlines Center - has not fared well versus elite competition and is 8-22-2 ATS in its last 32 games against Western Conference foes. The Mavericks have also failed to cover four of the last five times when laying three or more points. The Grizzlies are too physical for Dallas. Memphis ranks No. 2 in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game. The Grizzlies also rank in the top 10 in forcing turnovers. The Mavericks lack the inside muscle to match up well against the Grizzlies. This was evident during their last meeting. That occurred on Jan. 27 in Dallas with the Grizzlies cruising to a 109-90 victory. There's a chance the Grizzlies get back point guard Mike Conley, who has missed the last four games with a sprained ankle. Conley's absence has hurt the Grizzlies. But I still like them in this spot regardless of Conley's status. If he does suit up it's a nice bonus.
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03-20-15 |
Indiana Pacers v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 202 | | 92-95 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Indiana is an excellent defensive team ranking third in the league in fewest points per game and defensive field goal percentage. Cleveland is underrated defensively. The Cavaliers' defense has improved with the addition of J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert and Timofey Mozgov. Neither team, though, has been in great defensive form during the last week so we have a fairly high total. The Pacers are really struggling offensively, averaging 91 points on 40.9 percent shooting during their last three games. The Pacers make their mark on defense not offense. They have lost and failed to cover in their last three matchups. This is a stop-the-pain game for them. So I'm anticipating a maximum defensive effort. if you discount an off-game against the Raptors two games ago, the Pacers have given up an average of just 87.7 points per game during their last nine games. I'm expected a strong defensive effort from Cleveland, too. The Cavaliers know they need to regain their earlier defensive dominance having surrendered 106 or more points in three of their last four games. Now word has come down that LeBron James missed the shoot around today because he was ill. Obviously it would be another huge plus to the under if he didn't play. |
03-20-15 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Orlando Magic OVER 199 | | 104-111 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 36 m | Show |
Orlando's defense has slipped again. The Magic are giving up an average of 112.3 points per game during their last three games.
Portland has a top 10 offense and is the No. 1 free throw shooting team in the NBA. The Trail Blazers are averaging 107.6 points during their last six games. But their defense hasn't been very good as they've been surrendering 105 points per game during this span. |
03-19-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans v. Phoenix Suns -105 | Top | 72-74 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
The Suns aren't going to have Brandon Knight nor Alex Len back for this game. They aren't likely to make the playoffs either.
But if Phoenix has any hope of making the postseason it must win this game. The Suns have had four days off since beating the Knicks. This is their season. They won't lack for intensity or preparation.
The Pelicans are off two draining games, a double overtime loss to Denver at home on Sunday and a one-point home win versus the Bucks two days ago. They are the more tired team. It would be a huge break for the Suns if New Orleans held out Anthony Davis, who is bothered by a sore ankle.
But even if Davis plays, I like the Suns to get the job done here. |
03-18-15 |
Atlanta Hawks v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 208 | | 95-114 |
Loss | -110 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
The Hawks downed the Warriors, 124-116, when the teams met last month. I expect far more defensive intensity in this rematch in a battle of the two teams with the best records. Atlanta ranks fourth in defense giving up 96.5 points per game. The Warriors rate No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage holdings foes to 42.6 percent. Kyle Korver and Klay Thompson both are out, too. That's huge from a defensive standpoint. |
03-18-15 |
Indiana Pacers v. Chicago Bulls OVER 188.5 | | 86-103 |
Win | 100 | 3 h 34 m | Show |
The Pacers are averaging 103.5 points in their last four games. The Bulls are giving up 104.5 points during their last five games. Chicago's defense has been down all season especially at home. The over has cashed 62 percent of the time during Bulls home games this season. Indiana is 24-10-1 to the over during its last 35 road contests. |
03-17-15 |
Orlando Magic +11.5 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 94-107 |
Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Orlando is a lottery team that has lost eight of its last 10. But the Magic excel in situations exactly like this, partly because the marketplace usually doesn't care for them. Orlando has covered 17 of the past 22 times versus foes with a winning home mark. The Magic is 6-1 ATS the past seven times they've been double-digit road 'dogs. Houston is a bit fat after an impressive road upset win against the Clippers two days ago. The Rockets have more challenging tasks following this matchup hosting improved Denver and playoff-contender Phoenix. There is no reason for the Rockets to go all out against a non-conference lottery foe. Orlando is vulnerable from 3-point range, which is Houston's strength. However, the Rockets are in a long range shooting slump making just 27.5 percent from beyond the arc during their last five games compared to hitting nearly 35 percent before then. The Magic have improved a great deal defensively once they got rid of Jacque Vaughn. They are off an embarrassing 123-108 loss to the Cavaliers this past Sunday. This is what Magic coach James Borrego said following that loss to Cleveland. "Tonight (Sunday) was not a great defensive effort. It was probably due to Cleveland and partly our effort, our execution defensively. But we are a defensive team, and I'll continue to say that. Our identity is on the defensive end." Statistics back up what Borrego says. Even giving up 123 points to the Cavaliers, Orlando still is surrendering nearly three fewer points per game at 99.5 since Borrego replaced Vaughn, while forcing nearly three more turnovers per game, too. The Rockets historically have trouble with Orlando, too. The Magic have covered nine of the past 10 in the series, including the last four in Houston. The Rockets also may be without starting point guard Patrick Beverley, who is dealing with an elbow injury. |
03-16-15 |
Los Angeles Lakers +18 v. Golden State Warriors | Top | 105-108 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The Lakers actually have been playing excellent defense during their last six games holding foes to an average of 91.6 points per game during this span. LA isn't winning, but is staying close and covering spreads. The Lakers have not lost by double digits during their past 12 games and are 7-0 ATS following a straight-up loss. They also have covered in their last four road games. The Lakers are going with a lot of youngsters. So they are one of the few teams with fresh legs at this late stage of the season. Stronger foes also are resting key players, or at least reducing their minutes when they play the Lakers. Golden State has one of its bigger games of the season on deck when it hosts Atlanta on Wednesday. It's a revenge spot for the Warriors and a pivotal matchup in deciding the NBA's best record. So I'm not expecting big minutes from their starters, or an all-out intense effort. At the very least, the back-door should be wide open. The Warriors have had trouble gearing up for lottery teams failing to cover eight of the past nine times versus below .500 opponents. Golden State plays five games during the next eight days. So this figures to be a spot where the Warriors will be reducing starter's minutes.
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03-16-15 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Washington Wizards OVER 199 | | 97-105 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 16 m | Show |
Portland is averaging 112.3 points during its last four games - all without Wesley Matthews.
Damion Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge continue to play at high levels and now Nicolas Batum finally has begun to step up. Portland's ball movement has been excellent.
But I expect Washington to score its share of points, too, as John Wall is back to playing at a high level and the Wizards are much more dangerous offensively with Bradley Beal in the lineup. |
03-16-15 |
Toronto Raptors +5.5 v. Indiana Pacers | | 117-98 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
Toronto was starting to play better until getting blown out at home last night by Portland. The Raptors have a solid bench. They are 9-4 ATS the past 13 times when playing without rest.
Indiana is a different type of team than Portland. The Raptors match up much better against Indiana. Toronto has won the past three meetings in the series, incuding both times this season with one of the victories coming by 13 at Indiana.
The Pacers are thin in the backcourt. I'm expecting Kyle Lowry to play much better than he did in the loss to Portland this past Sunday. George Hill is an underrated point guard, but he's not Damian Lillard. |
03-15-15 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Toronto Raptors -120 | Top | 113-97 |
Loss | -120 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Portland is just an average road team made worse by the absence of Wesley Matthews. The Trail Blazers lost 121-113 to Minnesota in their lone road game since Matthews went down with a ruptured left Achilles tendon. Toronto has been slumping, but the Raptors took a huge step beating Miami, 102-92, this past Friday. Kyle Lowry is back at point guard and the Raptors are healthy. There has been nothing wrong with their top-five offense. They are averaging 105.5 points per game during their last six games, which is slightly above their season average.
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03-14-15 |
Detroit Pistons +8 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 85-88 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
The Pistons were blown out last night by the Trail Blazers losing by 19 points. Detroit is 6-0 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points and 10-3 ATS the next game when they didn't cover the spread during their previous game. Detroit can match up to the Jazz's tall front line with Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe, both of whom are having solid seasons. Drummond has pulled down 20 or more rebounds in three of the last five games. The Pistons would catch a major break if Utah center Rudy Gobert, who is having a breakout season, can't play after tweaking his ankle during the Jazz's last game this past Thursday. The line is high here because Utah is playing its finest ball winning nine of its last 11. Detroit has lost nine in a row to fall out of playoff contention. This is the Pistons' final game of their road swing. I see a bounce back effort after last night's embarrassing defeat. This is the fourth time in their last 10 games the Jazz are laying more than seven points. They are 0-3 ATS the previous three times. Utah is 26th in scoring. The Jazz lack the offense to lay a big number. The Pistons can stay with the Jazz. In their last eight road games, the Pistons have only lost by more than seven points twice. During this span, the Pistons beat the Hornets by 28 points, lost by three to the Pelicans, lost by five to the Pacers, lost by four to the Wizards and lost by seven to the Warriors. |
03-14-15 |
Brooklyn Nets -5 v. Philadelphia 76ers | | 94-87 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
With their season on the brink, I don't believe it's a leap of faith to believe the Nets can cover this mid-range number against the 76ers. This may be the only time all season where the 76ers are fat and happy after coming from 18 points down at home to beat the road-weary Kings, 114-107, last night. Despite putting up those many points, the 76ers still rank last in the league in scoring and shooting percentage. The Kings rank 28th defensively. The Nets rate a respectable 17th in points allowed per game. While the 76ers' roster is littered with unknowns, the Nets have star power with Deron Williams (who finally started shooting better), Joe Johnson and Brook Lopez, who is playing better. The prideful veteran Nets not only have revenge for a loss to the 76ers in their last meeting, but their season is on the line here. Brooklyn has lost five in a row to fall 3 1/2 games back of the last playoff spot in the East with 19 games remaining on the regular season schedule. A loss here to the 76ers, arguably the worst team in the NBA, would be the end. The Nets have age on them, but they've also been idle the past two days. Philly, on the other hand, is playing for the third time in four days and without rest. Brooklyn has covered five of its last seven road contests and has taken care of business against bad teams going 11-5 ATS the past 16 times playing foes with a winning percentage below .400. |
03-13-15 |
Atlanta Hawks -5 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 96-87 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
The Hawks have little to play for these days with the best record in the Eastern Conference all but clinched. That's been evident when the Hawks rested starters in a loss to the 76ers this past Saturday and during a 115-102 blowout loss two nights ago to the lowly Nuggets. When the Hawks want to play, though, they are an elite team. That was the case a week ago when the beat the surging Cavaliers by nine points. I see the Hawks wanting to get back on track after that embarrassing defeat to the Nuggets. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS the past nine times following a defeat and has covered 73 percent of its last 27 road games. Since Feb. 28, the Suns have played three opponents with winning record. In those games they lost by 25 to the Spurs, by 10 to the Cavaliers and by 18 to the Warriors. The losses to the Spurs and Warriors came at home where the Suns have dropped four of six. Phoenix also might be missing Brandon Knight again. He's dealing with a sprained ankle that caused him to sit out Phoenix's last game this past Wednesday, a victory against the Timberwolves. The Suns lack the size to hurt Atlanta inside and they give up the second-highest 3-point shooting percentage when playing at home at 38.5 percent. Sparked by sharp-shooter Kyle Korver, the Hawks own the second-best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA at 38.5 percent.
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03-12-15 |
Houston Rockets -113 v. Utah Jazz | Top | 91-109 |
Loss | -113 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
I recognize that Utah is playing its finest ball right now. The Jazz are 6-1 in their last seven games. Houston, though, is playing well, too, winning seven of its last 10. The Rockets did lose at Portland last night. But the fatigue factor shouldn't rate high here since prior to meeting Portland, the Rocket last played on Saturday. Houston doesn't play again until Sunday. So a focused, intense effort should be forthcoming as unlike the lottery-bound Jazz, the Rockets are battling for playoff positioning. Houston usually takes care of business against below .500 teams covering 14 of the last 18 times in that spot. The Jazz are playing excellent defense, but their last four games have been against the Celtics, 76ers, Nets and Knicks. Now they step way up in class. The Jazz also could be without their leading scorer, Gordon Hayward. He missed Utah's last game two nights ago due to a back injury. Houston is the superior team. The Rockets have owned the Jazz winning seven of the past eight meetings, the last three by an average of 21.3 points. It has been 10 games since the Jazz last faced an offensive player as prolific as James Harden, who ranks No. 2 in scoring in the league at 27 points a game.
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03-11-15 |
Chicago Bulls -6 v. Philadelphia 76ers | | 104-95 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
Yes, the Bulls are without their top three scorers although Derrick Rose wasn't having a great season.
But Chicago still has enough depth and talent to cover this number against the 76ers. Philly has been idle since Saturday when it upset the Hawks. That's too long for the 76ers to sit. They are 0-5 ATS the last five times when playing on three or more days rest.
The Bulls had to play at the Spurs, who are playing better now, and then hosted the Grizzlies in their last game two days ago. The Bulls played well, but were too short-handed to beat Memphis. Now Chicago steps way down in class and will be highly focused trying to get the No. 2 seed in the East in what is now a circle-the-wagons game for them following three consecutive losses.
The 76ers haven't won consecutive games since January. I don't see the 76ers ending that streak here. |
03-10-15 |
Detroit Pistons -2.5 v. Los Angeles Lakers | | 85-93 |
Loss | -105 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
If the Pistons want to retain any flicker of playoff hope, they must win this game. A six-game losing streak make them a long shot to make the playoffs after they pulled within one game of reaching the eighth spot on Feb. 22. Maybe flying to the West Coast and not practicing yesterday will help Detroit because the Pistons are a tired team. And tired teams usually don't shoot well. That's been the problem for the Pistons, particularly in their backcourt where Reggie Jackson and Kenavious Caldwell-Pope have been ice cold. I see the Lakers as being the remedy to Detroit's cold-shooting woes. The Lakers have been torched by other team's guards this month, including giving up 31 points to Monta Ellis at home two nights ago. Ellis entered that matchup shooting less than 28 percent from the floor during his last four games. The Lakers are an NBA-worst 4-21 since Jan. 11. They've dropped five in a row and are likely to still be missing Nick Young. The Pistons have covered 11 of their last 16 road contests. Following this matchup, the Pistons play road games against the Warriors, Trail Blazers and hot Jazz. That makes this game their easiest one - and a huge must-win. A loss to such a bad team as the Lakers would be devastating, something Stan Van Gundy is well aware of.
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03-10-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers -4 v. Dallas Mavericks | | 127-94 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
I want LeBron James and Cleveland in this revenge spot against a bogus Western Conference playoff team that is in a bad spot. Dallas shot a blistering 56.4 percent when it beat Cleveland, 109-90, on the road Jan. 4. James didn't play in that game and Kyrie Irving had to depart in the third quarter with an injury. Cleveland is healthy now and refreshed having last played on Saturday after playing four games in five days. Dallas got past the Lakers on Sunday night. This is the Mavericks' first game back from three games on the West Coast. The Mavericks are just 16-14 in their last 30 games and have consistently failed to step up against stronger competition. They are 7-17 ATS versus foes with a winning record. Dallas doesn't play that well at home either, covering 45 percent of their games at American Airlines Center. Dallas gives up the second-worst percentage of 3-point baskets at home in the league behind only the Knicks. The Cavaliers have stepped up their perimeter attack averaging 31.3 shots from beyond the arc since Jan. 15. The Cavaliers have three superstars in their prime plus a strong bench and rotation. They are 10-2 ATS the past 12 times going against Western Conference opponents. Dallas isn't nearly at that level. Dirk Nowitzki is past him prime and Rajon Rondo has been a disappointment since coming from Boston.
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03-10-15 |
Toronto Raptors v. San Antonio Spurs OVER 203 | | 107-117 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Tony Parker finally is playing better and the Spurs have picked up their scoring. In their last five games, San Antonio is averaging 111.2 points per game while shooting nearly 48 percent from the floor. Parker is averaging better than 25 points while shooting better than 64 percent from the floor during his last three games.
Toronto is giving up an average of 106.1 points per game during its last eight games. Toronto is slumping, but look for its offense to pick up with point guard Kyle Lowry back to run things. Only four teams score more points per game than the Raptors. |
03-09-15 |
New Orleans Pelicans +2 v. Milwaukee Bucks | Top | 114-103 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
The record shows New Orleans and Milwaukee each having 29 losses. But know this: New Orleans is better than Milwaukee. And the Bucks playing at home doesn't change that. The Pelicans are 7-2 in their last nine games. Every game is a must win spot for them as they battle to grab the final playoff position in the much superior Western Conference. New Orleans is coming off a win against Memphis this past Friday. That was Anthony Davis' third game back from a shoulder injury. He's averaging 30.3 points and 12.3 rebounds since returning. He's a legitimate MVP candidate. Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans are playing at high levels, too. Trading for point guard Norris Cole to help fill the void of injured point guard Jrue Holiday was a shrewd move by the Pelicans. Cole is a nice complementary player and knows how to win having collected a couple of rings when he was with the Heat. The Pelicans have covered seven of the last eight times on the road when going against a foe with a winning home record. The Bucks were maybe the biggest surprise team of the first half. But opposing teams have caught up to them and the Bucks have gotten worse after trading point guard Brandon Knight and getting turnover-prone, poor shooting Michael Carter-Williams in return. Since that deal, the Bucks have gone 3-6. Their only victories during this span were against the Nuggets, 76ers and Wizards. This was before Denver made its much needed coaching change and had lost 13 of its past 15. The 76ers are tied for the second-fewest wins in the league. The Wizards are 4-13 in their last 17 games and were without Bradley Beal. The Bucks needed a career-game from Kris Middleton to get past Washington. Before swapping point guards, the Bucks had won eight of nine. The young and inexperienced Bucks haven't fully adjusted to Carter-Williams and have lost some of their chemistry and confidence. The Bucks have turned into an undisciplined, out-of-control team playing not to lose instead of being loose. The Bucks now step up in class to face a legitimate Western Conference playoff contender that is playing well. Milwaukee is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games versus Western Conference opponents. The Pelicans have a good track record versus Milwaukee winning 14 of the last 16 in the series, including going 6-2 the past eight times in Milwaukee.
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03-08-15 |
Utah Jazz v. Brooklyn Nets -120 | Top | 95-88 |
Loss | -120 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
The aging Nets made the decision at the trade deadline that they are all in. They didn't deal any of their veterans. They are going for the playoffs and they know they can't afford a home loss to the Jazz. Yes, Utah is playing tremendous defense. But Brooklyn is decently defensively, too, has a stronger bench with Jarrett Jack, Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young. The Nets also catch the Jazz concluding their four-game, six-day road trip. This is close to a circle-the-wagons game for the Nets after consecutive home losses to the Hornets this past Wednesday and in overtime to the Suns on Friday in which they blew a 15-point lead with less than six minutes to play. Those were bad home defeats. The Nets are going all-out here and they catch the Jazz with a high fatigue rating. |
03-07-15 |
Portland Trail Blazers v. Minnesota Timberwolves +4.5 | Top | 113-121 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
The timing is right for the Timberwolves to upset the Trail Blazers. Minnesota has lost four in a row, including all three during its current homestand. This is the Timberwolves' final game at Target Center before heading out for four consecutive road games - all likely losses since they face the Clippers, Suns, Thunder and Spurs. The Timberwolves are off an embarrassing blowout loss to the Nuggets in their last game. Flip Saunders said it was his team's most disappointing loss in two months. Following an off day and then a day of practice should ensure a fresh and motivated Timberwolves squad for this matchup. Nikola Pekovic and Gary Neal are expected to play. This will be Portland's first game since finding out that Wesley Matthews is out for the season after suffering a ruptured Achilles tendon on Thursday against the Mavericks. Matthews isn't just Portland's third-leading scorer and top 3-point shooter. He brings a strong all-around game and is a steady force having played in 153 straight games. Matthews is an underrated player and his loss is going to be felt. LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard are the stars, but Matthews has been the unsung glue for Portland. The Trail Blazers' weak bench is made worse by the Matthews' injury since it elevates Arron Afflalo into the starting lineup. Afflalo is having a down year so far. That may change since he's now with the Trail Blazers and not the Nuggets. But he's still going through an adjustment period. The Timberwolves usually play better defense at home. They also have capable scorers. Rookie Andrew Wiggins is averaging 20.9 points in his last seven games. Minnesota has covered five of the past six times at home. Portland is in a weird spot and not just because of the shell shock over losing Matthews. The Trail Blazers just hosted the Mavericks on Thursday and blew them out. After this game they fly back to Portland for consecutive home games. So this is an odd situational element and also marks Portland's third game in four days. That's rough on any team especially one with weak reserves.
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03-06-15 |
Dallas Mavericks v. Golden State Warriors UNDER 208 | | 89-104 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
Now that word has come down that Devin Harris will not play the Mavericks are really hurting at guard. Monta Ellis represents the Mavericks' only backcourt scoring threat. Dallas' backcourt rotation is Ellis, Rajon Rondo, who has not been a good fit for the Mavericks, J.J. Barea, who has a thumb injury, and Raymond Felton.
Keep in mind, too, the Mavericks also are without Chandler Parsons and that Golden State ranks No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage.
The Mavericks have been playing better defense lately giving up an average of 94.6 points during their last six games.
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03-06-15 |
Cleveland Cavaliers -125 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 97-106 |
Loss | -125 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The Cavaliers have been the hottest team during the last six weeks. Record-wise, the Hawks are the best team in the NBA. But based on current form, Cleveland is better than Atlanta right now. The Hawks aren't quite in the same great form they showed earlier this season although still are plenty good. But with home-court advantage through-out the conference playoffs all but locked up, the Hawks don't have quite the motivation and incentive the Cavaliers do as the Cavaliers are in a dog fight for the second seed in the East. The Hawks have won the last two meetings in the series, both of which occurred in December. Cleveland is different and better since then as newcomers and supplemental pieces J.R. Smith, Timofey Mozgov and Iman Shumpert have fit in well and upgraded the Cavaliers' defense. The Hawks have four All-Stars but none of them are as good as LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.
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03-04-15 |
Utah Jazz v. Boston Celtics UNDER 193.5 | | 84-85 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Question: Which team has been playing the best defense in the NBA? Go to the head of the class if you answered the Utah Jazz. The Jazz always had the height, but now the defensive effort and mindset have kicked in. Utah is giving up an average of only 83.2 points per game during its last seven games. That's simply incredible. Boston scored just 79 points in an embarrassing 31-point loss to Cleveland last night. Brad Stevens called out his team for lack of effort. So I'm expecting an intense Celtics effort here. I'm also expecting a slow pace as the Jazz just played the physical Grizzlies last night. The under has cashed 10 of the past 14 times the Jazz have been on the road playing a foe with a losing home record. The under also has cashed seven of the last 10 times the Celtics have played following a loss.
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03-04-15 |
Phoenix Suns v. Orlando Magic +4 | Top | 105-100 |
Loss | -108 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
The Suns are worse than their overall won-lost record. Their players realize they aren't going to make the playoffs after some early season promise so morale and chemistry are down. Phoenix has dropped 10 of its last 13. The Suns are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Magic have become rejuvenated defensively under interim coach James Borrego. Since Borrego replaced inept Jacque Vaughn nine games ago, the Magic have given up an average of 92 points per game. Not one opponent has reached triple digits against them during this past nine-game span. Orlando is 7-3-1 ATS in is last 11 games and can take advantage of the Suns' 28th-ranked defense and minus 2.2 rebound differential. |
03-03-15 |
Utah Jazz +7.5 v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 93-82 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is a lot of points to be taking with a hot Jazz squad especially with such a low over/under total. Utah is playing its best defense of the season holding its past five foes to an average of 82.8 points per game. The Jazz are 6-2 in their last eight games - and their wins have come against solid opponents. During this span, Utah has defeated the Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Spurs and Bucks. The Jazz have the height and physical front line to match up to the Grizzlies with Derrick Favors and underrated Rudy Gobert. Memphis isn't playing well right now. In their last three games, the Grizzlies lost by 12 points to the Kings, lost by 18 to the Clippers who were missing Blake Griffin, and nipped the Timberwolves by four. The Grizzlies also have a bigger game on deck Wednesday when they play on the road against the Rockets.
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