Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-19-21 | Cavs -2.5 v. Pistons | 105-109 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Scared about asking the Cavaliers to win on the road? Don't be. Cleveland has won and covered three of its last four road contests. The Cavaliers still have playoff hopes, while the Pistons are in full rebuild. The Cavaliers have covered the last five in this series, including winning both games against the Pistons this season. Detroit lost, 121-100, to the Wizards two days ago. The Pistons permitted the Wizards, whose guards usually do most of their damage, to score 74 points in the paint. | |||||||
04-18-21 | Rockets v. Magic OVER 218.5 | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
Orlando is 1-7 in its last eight games. Houston is 1-10 in its last 11. Something has to give when these two lightweights meet today. Yeah that something is defense. The Rockets have allowed 125 or more points in each of their last five games. They stopped playing defense a long time ago. The Magic's defense has tumbled way down, too. Orlando is giving up an average of 120.1 points in its last eight games. A combination of getting gutted at the trade deadline and having injuries to their best defenders has lowered the Magic's once semi-respectable defense. Houston won't have John Wall. He's sitting out. I'm fine with that because the Rockets still have Kevin Porter Jr., Christian Wood, Jae'Sean Tate and underrated Kelly Olynyk. Wall hasn't had a stellar season either. Orlando will be minus point guard Michael Carter-Williams. So that means big minutes for Cole Anthony, who doesn't have Carter-Williams' defensive mind-set. The Magic have eight players 23 or younger. This is going to be a fun up-and-down game for them. | |||||||
04-17-21 | Spurs v. Suns OVER 227 | 111-85 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
When it comes to NBA superstars, Devin Booker's name often gets lost. But sparked by Booker, who averages 25.7 points a game, the Suns are the fifth-highest scoring team in the NBA. They also rank No. 2 in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. San Antonio is a below average defensive team that has given up at least 117 points in six of its last nine games. Phoenix has scored at least 117 points in eight of its last 10 games. The Over has cashed in eight of the Suns' last 10 games. The Spurs have produced 115 or more points in eight of their past 12 games so they should contribute their fair share in getting this total to go Over. | |||||||
04-17-21 | Cavs v. Bulls -121 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
Zach LaVine is out and the Bulls are on a five-game losing streak. So why back them? Two words: Cleveland Cavaliers. It's not too much to ask the Bulls to simply beat the hapless Cavaliers at home. This is the Bulls' opportunity to stop the bleeding while fighting for the 10th and final place in the play-in tournament. Chicago is tied with Toronto for that spot. LaVine is the Bulls' top scorer, but Chicago still holds an inside edge thanks to Nikola Vucevic. The Cavaliers rank last in scoring and second-to-last in offensive efficiency. Cleveland has failed to cover in 15 of its last 22 road contests. The Cavaliers' average road loss is by nearly double-digits. | |||||||
04-16-21 | Magic v. Raptors -130 | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
The expression fat and happy doesn't usually apply to the Orlando Magic. But in this rare case it does. The Magic halted a six-game losing streak by beating the Bulls and former teammate, Nikola Vucevic, 115-106, this past Wednesday. I don't see the rebuilding Magic bringing that kind of intensity to this matchup against the desperate Raptors, who need to make a move now. Toronto showed it still can be a force defeating the Spurs, 117-112, two days ago despite missing Kyle Lowery and Fred VanVleet. Both Lowery and VanVleet are expected to play for Toronto today. The Magic couldn't stop VanVleet when the teams last met in Orlando on Feb. 2. VanVleet scored 54 points in a 123-108 Toronto victory. The Raptors also defeated the Magic, 115-102, on Jan. 31 at home. The Raptors should have some added insight into the Magic having acquired former Orlando center Khem Birch eight days ago. | |||||||
04-16-21 | Pacers v. Jazz UNDER 235 | 111-119 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a weird Friday matinee game, which I consider a plus for the Under. The total is set high because the Pacers and Jazz have been piling up a lot of points against bad defenses. So I believe their current scoring form is skewed. The Pacers' last six games have occurred against five below average defenses. Now they go against the Jazz on the road. Utah gives up the fourth-fewest points in the NBA and ranks No. 2 in the league in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. Indiana ranks 22nd in scoring defense. Yet this will be the Jazz's toughest defensive foe in their last five games. Utah's previous four games were against defenses ranked 24th, 26th, 29th and 30th. There were just 198 points scored when the two teams met earlier this season at Indiana on Feb. 7 with the Jazz winning, 103-95. It's a break for Indiana if Jordan Clarkson has to miss another game with an ankle injury. Clarkson is the NBA leader in points off the bench this season, but he shot just 34.5 percent from the floor in March. | |||||||
04-15-21 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
It's taken until April, but the Celtics finally have started to play good basketball winning six of their last seven games. Strong defense has keyed Boston's turnaround. The Celtics rank fifth in defensive efficiency during their last 10 games, eight of which have gone Under the total. Boston has held four of its last seven opponents to fewer than 103 points. The Lakers have really stressed defense knowing their scoring was going to take a major hit with LeBron James and Anthony Davis both sidelined. LA has slowed down its tempo since losing their superstars and that pace is even slower now with Andre Drummond in the lineup. Drummond has yet to find a comfort zone in LA's offense. He's scored only seven points during the past two games despite logging around 25 minutes a game. This is what Drummond was quoted as saying, "Offensively it's probably the worst I've played in my career, so I'm still trying to figure it out. But I'm not allowing it to take me out of my game. I know why I'm here, which is to help this team out defensively." The Lakers have surrendered an average of just 100.5 points during their last 10 games. That defense easily would rank first in the NBA if computed out for the entire season. Don't look for the Lakers to speed up their style either in this matchup. They just concluded a seven-game, 12-day road trip this past Tuesday night at Charlotte. So their jump-shooting legs could still be tired and they have to reacquaint themselves with the shooting rims at Staples Center. The pace was extremely slow when the Lakers nipped the Celtics, 96-95, in the first meeting this season. James and Davis combined for 48 points in that matchup at Boston. There should be playoff intensity reminiscence of this once great rivalry in this matchup. The Celtics have revenge. The Lakers will have fans in the stands - around 2,000 of them - for the first time this season. The Under has cashed in each of LA's last six home contests. | |||||||
04-14-21 | Mavs -130 v. Grizzlies | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
Minus their rebounding and blocks leader, Kristaps Porzingis, the Mavericks still defeated the Grizzlies, 102-92, on Feb. 22. That was the first game following the week-long All-Star break. I don't see why a healthy Mavericks squad can't duplicate that victory. Dallas is 16-12 on the road. Memphis has a losing home record. The Mavericks have covered in five of their last six visits to Memphis. The Grizzlies are off an 11-point home win against the struggling Bulls. This is their third straight home game and sixth game in nine days. The Mavericks are in a bad mood following an embarrassing, 113-95, home loss to the 76ers from two days ago. Dallas is 9-2 ATS after not covering in its previous game. | |||||||
04-13-21 | Celtics v. Blazers -110 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is the middle game of the Celtics' three-game road swing. Boston won its third consecutive game upsetting the Nuggets, 105-87, this past Sunday. The Celtics have been living on the edge as each of their victories during their win streak have been come-from-behind. The Celtics have a revenge game on tap against the Lakers on Thursday. LA nipped the Celtics, 96-95, in Boston on Jan. 30. Portland is going to be motivated for this contest while Boston could be flat because of the scheduling. The Celtics are 4-13-1 ATS following a win. They also are 11-16 on the road this season. The Trail Blazers are off a listless, 107-98, home loss to the Heat this past Sunday. Blazers coach Terry Stotts was not happy with how his team played in that loss. I'm expecting a much better performance from the Trail Blazers. Portland is just 2-4 in its last six games. Note, though, the Trail Blazers' losses during this span have come to the Heat, Jazz, Clippers and Bucks. The Celtics are not in the class of the Jazz, Clippers and Bucks. | |||||||
04-13-21 | Nets v. Wolves UNDER 233.5 | 127-97 | Win | 100 | 3 h 5 m | Show | |
Yes I'm aware that I'm trying to make a pair of bottom-six defenses work by going Under. But the high total offsets that. So in studying this matchup and seeing Brooklyn's lengthy injury report, I find Under to be the way to go. The teams met just 16 days ago and the Nets won, 112-107, for a combined 219 points. Not surprisingly, the stars of that game were James Harden and Kyrie Irving. They combined for 65 points on 22 of 47 shooting from the floor while knocking down 15 of 16 free throws. Neither Harden nor Irving is going to play today. Also out for the Nets are LaMarcus Aldridge and Tyler Johnson. Kevin Durant is in the lineup. However, this is only his third game back from a long injury layoff and he's been on a minutes restriction since returning. The Nets are sure to be stressing defense after getting torched in embarrassing fashion, 126-101, by the shorthanded Lakers this past Saturday. Minnesota is defensively-challenged. But next to Durant, the player the Timberwolves most have to worry about is guard Joe Harris. They should be able to handle that. So the Timberwolves' defensive task has been made much easier with the Nets down Harden, Irving and Aldridge. There will be no fans in the stands and the game is being played in the afternoon. I regard this as more of a plus for the Under. | |||||||
04-11-21 | Pistons +12.5 v. Clippers | Top | 124-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
I know it doesn't say much for the Pistons when Jerami Grant is the team's best player and he may not even play after missing the past two games due to a sore knee. But the Pistons aren't as bad as perceived. They are 4-4 in their last eight games. Detroit 13-5 ATS the past 18 times when taking more than 6 points. This does mark Detroit's fifth and final road game of its current away swing. The Pistons, though, have a lot of young players looking to make their mark. They got their rest last night in a poorly played, 118-103, loss to the Trail Blazers. I believe the Pistons will show more energy and effort in this game. Detroit had shot better than 50 percent from the floor in their previous three games before Portland. The Clippers are fat and happy posting a 6-2 mark during their current homestand. It would be hard to blame the Clippers if they took the Pistons too lightly here. LA is still tinkering with its rotation. Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley are both out. Rajon Rondo and DeMarcus Cousins are trying to get their footing. Paul George is dealing with a bruised foot. Kawhi Leonard always is a candidate for rest against a sub .500 opponent. | |||||||
04-09-21 | Rockets +12 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The Clippers enter this matchup against the lowly Rockets fat and happy. LA is riding a three-game win streak, is playing at home for the eighth consecutive game and coming off a highly-satisfying victory against the Suns last night. LA's last four games have been against the Suns, Trail Blazers, Lakers and Nuggets. Now the Clippers get a huge drop in class. The last time the Clippers hosted a below .500 foe was five games ago against the Magic on March 30. Orlando sprung a 103-96 upset in that game. The Rockets are more respectable since getting John Wall and Christian Wood back from injury. They proved that in their last game when they upset the Mavericks, 102-93, at home this past Wednesday. The Rockets displayed tough defense and renewed spirit. So they are capable. I wouldn't be shocked either if Kawhi Leonard sat out. He played 38 minutes against the Suns last night and even got poked in the eye, which he said bothered his vision during the game. If Leonard is indeed rested, this line will go down several points. | |||||||
04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers -5 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
If there were still any doubt about the Suns not being an elite team it was laid to rest on Wednesday night when Phoenix beat Utah, 117-113, in overtime. Only the Jazz have a better record in the NBA than the Suns. No team has been better against the spread than Phoenix, which has covered 66 percent of its games this season with a 33-17 ATS mark. The Suns have won seven in a row. Yet I'm going against the Suns today. Normally I'd either play on the Suns, or avoid them. They have been the wrong team to fade. Not this time, though. It's not who you play in the NBA when it comes to point spread covers during the regular season, but when you play them. This situation is just too good to ignore the Clippers. Not only are the Clippers an elite team themselves - certainly capable of winning the NBA championship - but they catch the Suns in a horrible spot. The Jazz-Suns Wednesday showdown lived up to the hype. Both teams laid it on the line like it was the seventh game of a playoff series. There was no holding back. The Suns wanted to prove to their fans and to a national TV audience that they indeed are for real. That point was proven, but the price didn't come cheap. Chris Paul, who turns 36 in less than a month, played a season-high 43 minutes against Utah. Devin Booker logged nearly 44 minutes. Deandre Ayton went more than 41 minutes. He hadn't played more than 40 minutes all season. The Suns also played a tight game this past Monday getting past Houston, 133-130, on the road. So they are playing for the third time in four days, all at different venues, and without rest. The Suns are not the deepest of teams. The Clippers are back to full strength with the exception of Serge Ibaka. LA strengthened its rotation by signing DeMarcus Cousins, who says he's in the best shape of his life. The Clippers were idle on Wednesday following an easy, 133-116, home win against the Trail Blazers this past Tuesday. This will be the second meeting between Phoenix and LA. The Clippers defeated the Suns, 112-107, at Phoenix on Jan. 3. Paul George led the way with a season-high 39 points. The Clippers led by 20 at halftime. There was a lot of trash talking in that game. The Clippers have covered eight of their last 10 home games. They are 8-1 ATS the last nine times hosting the Suns. The NBA schedule makers did the Suns no favor scheduling them for this matchup following a home game against the Jazz. The Clippers are going to be up for this game and they have the talent to blow out any opponent, Phoenix included. I can't see the Suns coming up with anything resembling an "A" level performance and effort after Wednesday's tremendous home victory, perhaps the best moment of the season for them. This one goes to the Clippers and I don't expect the score to be close. | |||||||
04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns UNDER 224.5 | 113-117 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
New Orleans and Phoenix are a combined 73-26. Record-wise, they are the two best teams in the NBA. So this is a huge game and ESPN is on hand to televise the matchup. Donovan Mitchell and Devin Booker are outstanding scorers. But these teams know how to play defense. The Jazz rank No. 3 in defensive scoring holding foes to 107.2 points. They also rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They haven't given up more than 107 points in seven of their last nine games and not more than 114 points during any of their past 10 games. The Suns are the No. 5 defensive team in the NBA holding opponents to 107.7 points. They rank fourth in 3-point defense and have held opponents to 112 points or less in eight of their last 10 games. When the teams had their lone meeting this season back on New Year's Eve in Utah, there were a combined 201 points scored with the Suns winning, 106-95. This has all the makings of a playoff-caliber intensity type of matchup. | |||||||
04-07-21 | Pelicans +9 v. Nets | 111-139 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
It's easy to look at the Pelicans and see a string of key players hurt and a 26th-ranked defense. There's also a fatigue factor as New Orleans is playing without rest and for the fifth time in seven days. Meanwhile, the Nets are expected to finally get back Kevin Durant, who has missed the past 23 games. However, the combination of a large point spread, James Harden being out with a hamstring injury and the Nets being a horrible favorite put me on New Orleans. The Pelicans are short-handed in the backcourt with Josh Hart and Nickeil Alexander-Walker out with injuries. Brandon Ingram is questionable. So he may not play either. But Zion Williamson, who has emerged as a high-percentage shooting, all-around monster player, is back from a thumb injury. Lonzo Ball is playing well. Eric Bledsoe is a capable guard and recently signed Isaiah Thomas is available. He played 25 minutes scoring 10 points against the Hawks on Tuesday night. Durant figures to be rusty. He probably won't log a lot of minutes. The Nets may even come into this matchup overconfident based on their opponent and finally getting Durant back while having Kyrie Irving. The oddsmaker seems to be in love with the Nets. The Nets haven't returned this love going 1-9 ATS the past 10 times they've been chalk. | |||||||
04-06-21 | Bulls v. Pacers +1 | Top | 113-97 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
The Pacers are off a 139-133 road victory against the Spurs this past Saturday. That's significant for several reasons. It halted a three-game Indiana losing streak and the Pacers accomplished that impressive feat minus Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon. Those are arguably Indiana's two best players. So it's not asking too much for the Pacers to just beat the Bulls at home even if Sabonis and Brodgon have to sit out again. Each is questionable. Indiana has had two full days to rest and game plan. The Bulls have dropped their last four road games, including a 120-104 loss to the Spurs on March 27. Indiana has covered six of the past seven in the series. | |||||||
04-04-21 | Grizzlies v. 76ers -3 | Top | 116-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
The 76ers are dominant at home, the point spread is lower than I anticipated and Joel Embiid is back. This is enough to put me on the 76ers. Philadelphia is 20-4 at home this season. The 76ers have covered 68 percent of their past 52 home games. Memphis is 4-11 ATS the past 15 times when on the road meeting a foe with a winning home record. The Grizzlies have failed to cover during their last four visits to Philadelphia. Embiid wasn't rusty after missing 10 games due to a bruised knee scoring 24 points against the Timberwolves on Saturday. | |||||||
04-03-21 | Cavs +12 v. Heat | 101-115 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting the Heat to be up for this game, or to produce an "A" type of effort. Why bother, they're playing the Cavaliers. Based on this belief, I'll take Cleveland plus this many points. Miami hosted Cleveland just 2 1/2 weeks ago and won, 113-98. The Cavaliers have lost four in a row. The Heat are on a three-game win streak. This is the Heat's fourth game in six days. Miami is 5-11-1 ATS the past 17 times as a home favorite. But are there other reasons to get involved with the Cavaliers besides perceived line value and the strong possibility of a Miami letdown? Yes, the Cavaliers have been blown out by the 76ers and Jazz in their last two games. But they have been tougher than you might think. Prior to those two defeats, the Cavaliers were highly competitive in five of their previous seven games - beating the Celtics, Raptors and Bulls while losing by six to the Spurs and by two to the hot Kings. The injury absences of Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Jr. is somewhat off-set by the return of Kevin Love and sparkplug Matthew Dellavedova. Love went 20 minutes against the 76ers. Cleveland only was outscord by two points during Love's time on the court. Love should see more minutes against Miami. Dellavedova made his season debut versus Philly and stabilized Cleveland's second unit. He's a hustling, team-oriented veteran popular with his teammates. Note that Miami has played nine games since defeating the Cavaliers by 15 points. The Heat haven't won by more than 10 points in any of those contests. | |||||||
04-02-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans UNDER 224 | 126-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm not expecting the Hawks and Pelicans to play with a lot of energy in this one. The visiting Hawks are playing for the third time in four days and second in two nights. They are off a two overtime road win against the Spurs from Thursday. The Pelicans also played last night and had to go overtime, losing, 115-110, to the Magic at home. Not only are the Pelicans playing without rest, but this marks their fifth game in eight days. Neither team is likely to be at full strength either. The Hawks don't expect to have their second and third-leading scorers with John Collins sidelined with an ankle injury and De'Andre Hunter dealing with a sore knee that has kept him out of the past four games. Cam Reddish isn't back yet and Kevin Huerter has gone in the tank. There's also the possibility Trae Young sits because of a sore knee. That would be a huge bonus for the Under. The Pelicans fell to the Magic minus their three best offensive players - Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. New Orleans committed 24 turnovers minus Ball, its point guard. The Pelicans managed only 101 points in regulation against Orlando last night. I would be surprised if all three of these stars sat out again, but I do expect one or two of them to miss this game. The Hawks have been much improved defensively under the coaching of veteran Nate McMillan, who took over from the fired Lloyd Pierce. | |||||||
03-31-21 | Bucks -8 v. Lakers | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
Minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers still are capable of dispatching dregs like the Magic and Cavaliers. But they can't hang in against a motivated elite opponent. The Bucks are one such foe. The Lakers draw an angry Bucks team with something to prove having lost three in a row with the latest defeat being a crushing 125-109 road loss to the Clippers two days ago. The Bucks haven't had to travel following that loss because this game is at Staples Center, too. Milwaukee also has revenge motivation for a 113-106 home loss to the Lakers back in January. James was the key in that game scoring 34 points. Davis had 18 points. The Lakers are hoping newly signed Andre Drummond can make a difference. Drummond hasn't played since Feb. 12. His minutes are going to be restricted here and he figures to be plenty rusty. | |||||||
03-31-21 | Knicks -3.5 v. Wolves | 101-102 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 49 m | Show | |
Most teams find it difficult to get up for the Timberwolves. Can you blame them? Minnesota has the worst record in the NBA at 11-36. The Timberwolves have failed to cover 12 of the last 17 times they've been a 'dog, too. The Knicks are the exception. They will be up for this matchup - and it's because of Tom Thibodeau. The defensive guru has the Knicks ranking No. 1 defensively giving up 104.6 points a game. The Timberwolves fired Thibodeau as their coach and president in early January of 2019. The season before Thibodeau had led Minnesota to its first playoff berth in 17 years. New York is coming off a bad 98-88 loss to the Heat this past Tuesday. The Knicks are 9-1 ATS the last 10 times following a loss. They also have shown the ability to take care of business against bad teams going 12-3 ATS the past 15 times versus a sub .500 opponent. The Timberwolves rarely can be counted on to play two strong games in a row. Minnesota nearly upset the hot Nets two days ago, losing 112-107. | |||||||
03-30-21 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
If the Clippers cared about this opponent they would crush them. But they don't. Would you? Orlando could field the least respectable lineup in the NBA following the trade deadline where they dealt its three best players to play for the future. LA is extremely fat and happy, winners and covers of six in a row, including a highly-satisfying 129-105 destruction of the Bucks Monday night. Maybe Kawhi Leonard sits out this one since he played yesterday. Orlando has a lineup you don't want to know, but the Magic have been competitive covering their last three games: Beating the Suns straight-up, losing by seven points to the Trail Blazers and falling to the Lakers by three points. Those point spread covers all came at home. Now the Magic are on the road. Point, though, is the Magic's youngsters should continue to play hard now that they have an opportunity while the Clippers are in a monster letdown spot. Even if the Clippers build up a big lead, the backdoor should swing open with LA hosting the Nuggets on Thursday in a much bigger game. | |||||||
03-29-21 | Raptors -3 v. Pistons | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
OK, Toronto it's time. The Raptors are four games out of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They can not afford another loss this month to Detroit. Yes, the Pistons are 2-0 versus Toronto in March beating them 116-112 at home and 129-105 on the road March 3. Detroit, though, is in full rebuild. The Pistons are 2-8 in their last 10 games, including 0-4 during their past four games. The Raptors like to bomb from 3-point range. They rank ninth in 3-point accuracy. Detroit ranks 26th in defensive field goal percentage and 22nd in 3-point defense. | |||||||
03-28-21 | Hawks v. Nuggets UNDER 227 | 102-126 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 26 m | Show | |
Below the radar screen, the Hawks have been playing very good defense since Nate McMillan took over as coach. Atlanta has held its last eight opponents to an average of 102.3 points per game. The Knicks lead the NBA in scoring defense allowing 104.7 points. Denver has an above average defense. The Nuggets have held six of their last 10 foes to fewer than 109 points. Both teams were active at the trade so there are rotation adjustments. The Nuggets got bigger with their recent acquisitions so they might have gotten slower. | |||||||
03-27-21 | Celtics v. Thunder +9.5 | 111-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
Boston is 2-5 in its last seven games and has been a major disappointment this season. The Celtics, though, acquired Evan Fournier at the trade deadline and could start to make a move. They showed that by upsetting the Bucks, 122-114, on the road Friday night. Oklahoma City is 2-1 in its last three games, but is in clear rebuild mode. The Thunder just lost their leading scorer and best player, Shai Gilgeious-Alexander, indefinitely with plantar fasciitis in his right foot. So if this were a long-term prognosis, I clearly would buy Celtics stock and drop any Thunder stock. But it's not. This is just a one-time thing and this particular situation favors Oklahoma City. Fournier is likely to make his Boston debut here. Moritz Wagner, another Boston newcomer, has just joined the rotation. So there's going to be a transition period. Boston just played two tough games against the Bucks, coming off a huge win that may have turned around its season. The Celtics have a bigger challenge on deck returning home to host emerging superstar Zion Williamson and the Pelicans in a revenge game on Monday. The Celtics are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a victory. They are 0-6 ATS the past six times when playing without rest. The Thunder have been idle since Wednesday. Their young players are anxious to get back on the court to show what they can do. They should be up for this game. Boston won't. It's a flat spot for the Celtics. | |||||||
03-26-21 | Cavs v. Lakers -3.5 | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
The Lakers are in a lot of trouble minus LeBron James and Anthony Davis. They have lost their last four games. But LA hasn't sunk low enough where they can't cover a short point spread at home against the hapless Cavaliers, who are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games. Cleveland is down several big men with Andre Drummond sitting out waiting for a contract buyout and JaVale McGree traded to the Nuggets yesterday. Cleveland may also be missing its best player and leading scorer, guard Collin Sexton. | |||||||
03-26-21 | Nuggets -125 v. Pelicans | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show | |
New Orleans is much better at home. Denver, however, has one of the top road marks in the NBA at 14-9. The Nuggets certainly aren't going to lack motivation and focus either for this matchup. The Pelicans upset the Nuggets, 113-108, as 6 1/2-point road 'dogs this past Sunday. Denver rebounded from that disappointment to knock off the Magic, 110-99, in Orlando three days ago, but then were buried on the road by the Raptors, 135-111, this past Wednesday. This is what Denver coach Michael Malone said about that defeat to the Raptors: "The most frustrating aspect for me was the complete lack of effort, all around from top to bottom; that was an embarrassing performance." Almost always a team comes out hard after getting ripped by their coach for lack of trying. Denver also has rapid revenge motivation losing to the Pelicans at home five days ago. The Nuggets are 9-3 in their last 12 games and rate at least one level higher than the Pelicans. | |||||||
03-24-21 | Mavs v. Wolves +8.5 | 128-108 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
The Mavericks are talented. They also are young and could be facing an unexpected tough battler here. Riding high after a 40-point road victory against the Trail Blazers this past Sunday, the Mavericks have had three days to enjoy themselves. Their past five games have been against the Nuggets, two versus the Clippers and two against the Trail Blazers. Now they get to step way down in class drawing the hapless Timberwolves. Dallas does not have a good track record in these instances going 5-16 ATS (24 percent) the past 21 times facing below .500 opponents. Minnesota has covered four of its last seven games. Anthony Edwards now becomes the top rookie of the year candidate with LeMelo Ball likely out for the year. Edwards is playing well. Karl-Anthony Towns gives the Timberwolves the best big man on the floor. This is the second meeting between the two teams. Dallas defeated Minnesota, 127-122, failing to cover as 10-point home favorites on Feb. 8. The Timberwolves lost that one by five points despite not having Towns, while the Mavericks had their two big stars, Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. | |||||||
03-24-21 | Hornets v. Rockets +3.5 | Top | 122-97 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
The record shows 12-30 for Houston. But are the Rockets really that bad? No, not when they are healthy. The Rockets are nearly back to full strength with John Wall, Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo all available. Houston has enough talent to be respectable. However, to get behind the Rockets you have to believe that they believe in themselves. Is the mental aspect there? It should be after the Rockets snapped a humiliating, franchise-worse 20-game losing streak with a smashing 117-99 home win against the Raptors this past Monday. Joy. Relief. Confidence. The Rockets expressed all of those emotions following that victory. Oladipo even sat out that game as the Rockets chose to give him a rest day. Wall and Wood played well against Toronto. This is important in case Oladipo sits out again as his name is being bantered about in trade rumors. Equally important in this handicap is going against the Hornets. I don't find Charlotte a very good team especially now with star rookie LaMelo Ball likely out for the rest of the season after suffering a broken wrist. Ball was instrumental in the Hornets defeating the Rockets, 119-94, last month with 24 points, 10 assists and seven rebounds. Ball was injured this past Saturday. Charlotte beat San Antonio, 100-97, in its last game this past Monday. Teams often play extremely hard in the first game following a major injury to their star player. The Hornets also were fortunate to draw the Spurs in a flat spot playing in their first home game since returning from a five-game road swing. The Spurs looked and played tired in that game. Now it's the Hornets' turn to be tired as this marks their fifth game in eight days. They've been on the road for the past nine days. The Hornets return to Charlotte following this matchup. The Hornets are 2-7 (22 percent) ATS the past nine times after winning their previous game. They also have a history of struggling when playing in Houston going 3-14-2 ATS during their last 19 visits. Stephen Nover Free Wednesday Play Spurs plus 6 hosting Clippers Gregg Popovich in an underdog role and a home one at that. Sign me up for the Spurs here. San Antonio has covered 68 percent of the time it has been a 'dog the past 28 times. The Spurs will have around 3,200 fans for this game, just the third time this season spectators are allowed to attend San Antonio home contests. The Clippers are playing well, but this spot sets up nicely for the Spurs. There is line value because the Spurs lost, 100-97, at home to the Hornets in their last game two days ago. The backstory to that defeat, though, was the Spurs had just returned home following a successful 3-2 five-game road trip that had concluded Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Spurs came out flat against Charlotte and could not recover. I see the Spurs performing much better against the Clippers, a team they dislike because of the presence of Kawhi Leonard. You may recall Leonard forcing his way out of San Antonio during the summer of 2018. That earned him the lasting enmity of the San Antonio population. The Spurs certainly got up for the Clippers when the teams last met on Jan. 5 in Los Angeles. San Antonio won, 116-113, as 7 1/2-point 'dogs. The Clippers enter this matchup off an impressive, 119-110, home victory against the Hawks this past Monday. That snapped the Hawks' eight-game win streak. LA, however, has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been a road favorite. | |||||||
03-23-21 | Nets v. Blazers -121 | 116-112 | Loss | -121 | 17 h 55 m | Show | |
The Nets may be the Eastern power oddsmakers envision when James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant are all in the lineup together and in sync. Right now, though, the Nets just have Harden. Brooklyn is thin in the backcourt with Irving out for this game. Portland's strength is its backcourt of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and swingman Gary Trent. Brooklyn could be in serious trouble for this matchup if Harden can't go. He was dealing with neck soreness following Brooklyn's last game, a 113-106 home win against the Wizards from two days ago. The Nets lost, 121-113, to the hapless Magic in their previous game played five days ago in Orlando. Portland had turned around its season winning seven of nine games before getting embarrassed at home by the Mavericks, 132-92, this past Sunday. That was the Trail Blazers' worst loss of the season. I see Portland bouncing back at home against a Nets squad that is far from full strength. | |||||||
03-23-21 | Suns v. Heat UNDER 215.5 | 110-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show | |
This spot is fraught with danger for Phoenix. The Suns open a four-game road swing after a highly-satisfying burial of the Lakers two days ago, drawing a semi-desperate Heat squad looking to halt a three-game losing skid. But rather than get involved picking a side, I'm opting to go with the total in this matchup because I believe Under is the best way to go. Miami is a defensive-minded team built to win in that fashion, not by shootouts. Only three teams in the NBA allow fewer points per game than the Heat. Only one has a better defensive field goal percentage. The Heat have held eight of their last 10 opponents to fewer than 100 points during regulation. The Heat have two added veteran ace defenders back in their rotation: recently acquiredTrevor Ariza and Andre Iguodala back from a hip injury. Jimmy Butler is healthy, too. Butler is noted for his offense, but he's also a strong defender. It's a plus for the Under if offensive-minded Goran Dragic remains sidelined. The Suns rank in the top three both in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They have held three of their past four opponents to fewer than 102 points. Miami is 27th in scoring and 28th in 3-point shooting. I see this as a playoff-type game with a lot of defensive intensity and slow tempo. | |||||||
03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks -9.5 | 113-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
The Pacers have failed to cover during their last five visits to Milwaukee. I see that streak continuing. The Bucks are playing their best ball going 11-1 in their last 12 games, including winning their past six. They have matched up well to the Pacers winning and covering six of the last seven games, including downing Indiana, 130-110, at home early last month. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a Triple Double in that victory. Milwaukee is clicking, in part, because point guard Jrue Holiday is back in the groove and newcomer P.J. Tucker looks like an excellent fit with his defense, professionalism and intensity. The spot sets up extremely well, too, for the Bucks. This is just the Bucks' second game in five days. Indiana, however, is playing its third game in four days and second in two days having gone overtime on Sunday to nip the Heat, 109-106. The Pacers rallied from five down in OT to defeat the Heat for the second time in three days with both wins coming in Miami. This is an extremely difficult feat. So kudos to the Pacers. But they are two levels below the Bucks and aren't likely to have much left in the tank following their road sweep of the Heat. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Lakers +10 v. Suns | Top | 94-111 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Get ready for a new Pacific Division champion because the defending champion Lakers aren't going to be heard from until the playoffs. Down Anthony Davis and now LeBron James, the Lakers are far from elite anymore. Through some 40-plus games in the season, there are just three elite teams in the Western Conference: the Jazz, Clippers and Suns. The Lakers have been erased from that list. But I don't question the Lakers' heart. They've had 24 hours to digest losing James to a sprained ankle, suffered against the Hawks in a 99-94 home loss Saturday. This will be their first full game since James suffered his ankle injury. LA will be highly motivated to perform well against a rising power especially in this first game of James being out. The Suns are an emerging power. Devin Booker is nearing superstar status. Chris Paul still is highly effective. However, the Suns are young and haven't been in this role before laying such a huge number against this opponent. I doubt the Suns bring their "A" game knowing they already defeated the Lakers by 10 points in LA earlier this month when James was playing. I'm expecting a Suns letdown and a huge effort by the Lakers with the result being an LA cover. | |||||||
03-21-21 | 76ers v. Knicks UNDER 215.5 | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
The 76ers hosted the Knicks five days ago minus Joel Embiid and his third-ranked 29.9 point scoring average. The 76ers managed to come away with a 99-96 victory for a total of 195 points. Seth Curry and Ben Simmons did play in that game. Curry scored 20 points while Simmons produced 16 points and seven assists. Together they combined to shoot 15-of-29 from the floor. Embiid remains out, but now Curry and Simmons are questionable with injuries. Yet the oddsmaker still has set what I regard as too high of a total. Perhaps he was influenced by the 76ers burying the Kings, 129-105, at home on Saturday despite Philadelphia missing Curry and Simmons. The Kings are ranked 29th defensively giving up 119.6 points. They are coached by Luke Walton. The Knicks are ranked No. 1 in most of the major defensive categories, including scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. They are coached by Tom Thibodeau, a defensive genius, Before they produced 129 points versus the Kings, the 76ers had been held to 93 points in regulation by the Bucks and 99 by the Knicks in their previous two games. The Knicks are a bottom-three scoring team. They have a cluster injury problem at point guard. Frank Ntilikina, an Under bettor's dream, has been drawing time. The 76ers are well above average defensively ranking seventh in scoring defense and fourth in defensive field goal percentage. | |||||||
03-21-21 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | 96-112 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
Aaron Gordon is one of those underrated players who isn't worth anything on the betting line. Maybe he should be. Orlando is 4-1 ATS since Gordon returned from injury. Gordon scored 38 points in helping lead the Magic to a 121-113 win against the Nets this past Friday at home halting Brooklyn's six-game win streak and ending the Magic's nine-game losing streak. So the Magic should enter this matchup with boosted confidence not to mention strong revenge motivation for a 124-97 mid-January road loss to the Celtics during their previous get together. The other part of this handicap is fading Boston. The Celtics are not a team to be backing right now losers of four of their past five, including their last three. Discount a 134-107 win against the Rockets, who have the second-worst record in the NBA, and the Celtics are averaging 106 points during their last four games. Both Orlando and Boston give up an average of 111 points. Orlando would be 6-1 in its last seven games if given more than eight points. So, I ask who are the Celtics to be laying this many points? | |||||||
03-20-21 | Hawks v. Lakers UNDER 223.5 | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
We'll find out just how good the Hawks are with this matinee matchup. Atlanta is 7-0 since replacing Lloyd Pierce with Nate McMillan. The best way to get involved with this game, though, is Under the total. It's easy to think offense with LeBron James and the Lakers. But LA actually ranks second in the NBA in fewest points allowed per game at 106.3. That number shrinks even more to 105.7 if you go by just the last four games. The Hawks have really improved defensively and professionally under the veteran tutelage of McMillan. Atlanta has allowed fewer than 113 points in seven of its last eight games. The Hawks have permitted an average of only 97 points during their past four games. The teams last met on Feb. 1 and there were just 206 points scored in 107-99 Lakers' victory. This also is a rare home day game for the Lakers so the early start time is another checkmark to the Under. | |||||||
03-18-21 | Hornets +8 v. Lakers | 105-116 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
The defending world champion Lakers of LeBron James are the epitome of the big-market, public team. The Hornets are the complete opposite. They are small-market and almost always flying below the radar screen. This often leads to value in backing the Hornets and fading the Lakers - in the right circumstances. This is such a spot. Charlotte is coming off a 129-104 blowout loss to the Nuggets in Denver Wednesday night. The good news for the Hornets from that stinging defeat was none of their players reached the 28-minute playing mark. The Hornets are healthy, which they haven't been, and shouldn't be weary for this matchup especially given their solid team depth. They actually have one of the league's deepest backcourts with potential rookie-of-the-year LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Devonte Graham and Malik Monk. Previous to losing to Denver, the Hornets were 5-1 in their last six games. They are an amazing 11-1 ATS following a non point spread cover. The Lakers are the ones with a bit of a fatigue element as this marks their third game in four days. LA is coming off blowout victories against the Warriors this past Monday and Timberwolves from Tuesday. The Lakers host the hot Hawks, winners of six in a row, on Saturday. So this looms as a real flat spot for LA. Often overvalued when playing at home, the Lakers are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times as home chalk when laying six or more points. So this isn't their best role. | |||||||
03-18-21 | Pelicans v. Blazers UNDER 241.5 | 93-101 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
The Pelicans had the biggest choke job of the season when these teams met two days ago in Portland. New Orleans blew a 17-point lead during the final six minutes to lose, 125-124. There were 249 points scored in that game. So why try to make an Under work here besides the obvious of going below an extremely high total? Besides these teams knowing each other's tendencies from having just met and figuring the Pelicans are going to play with super intensity after their massive blown opportunity, a look at Tuesday's box score reveals just what it took to score this many points: New Orleans: Shot 52 percent from the floor, made 16 of 33 shots from 3-point range for 48 percent and hit 16 of 20 free throws for 80 percent. The Pelicans rank 28th in free throw percentage at 73.2 percent and are 19th in 3-point shooting accuracy at 35.8 percent. Prior to Tuesday's game, Portland had given up an average of 113.8 points in its last eight games. That's below average, but not bottom-seven. A total this high is normally reserved for bottom-five type defenses. Portland: The Trail Blazers also shot 52 percent from the field in Tuesday's game and didn't miss a free throw going 31-for-31! The Trail Blazers rank 26th in field goal percentage at 44.8 percent. If you discount a 135-108 loss to the Timberwolves, the Trail Blazers had surrendered an average of just 100 points in their three previous games. | |||||||
03-17-21 | Bucks v. 76ers UNDER 236.5 | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
Joel Embiid was having an MVP-caliber season until he suffered a knee injury two games ago. He's out replaced by a combination of Tony Bradley and Dwight Howard. Embiid averages 29.9 points. Bradley and Howard average a combined 11 points. Rarely do they go to the free throw line either and whey they do there's about a 40 percent chance they will miss. So without Embiid, I see this total as being too high. The 76ers just beat the physical Knicks, 99-96, at home Tuesday night. This marks Philadelphia's third game in four days and second in two nights. A fast-paced, up-tempo game from the 76ers should not be expected especially when the plodding and way over-the-hill Howard is on the floor. The Bucks' defense is down from the past couple of seasons, but they still rank seventh in defensive field goal percentage. Philadelphia ranks fifth in defensive field goal percentage and seventh in scoring defense giving up 110.1 points per game. The Bucks could experience some culture shock having just played the Wizards twice. The Wizards are the worst defensive team in the NBA. | |||||||
03-16-21 | Hawks v. Rockets UNDER 225.5 | Top | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Nate McMillan isn't an elite coach. But he's a solid pro and he has the Hawks playing and looking far more respectable than they did under Lloyd Pierce. Atlanta has surrendered an average of just 104.5 points in its last four games. The Hawks have moved into the top 10 in defensive field goal percentage and rank No. 2 in defensive 3-point percentage. Houston is last in 3-point shooting percentage. So don't expect the Rockets to hit many 3-pointers. Houston is decimated with injuries, averaging only 99.8 points a game during their last six games. The Cavaliers are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA and they average 103.3 points. Houston may get Danuel House Jr. back, but Christian Wood, John Wall and Eric Gordon are not expected to play leaving just Victor Oladipo as the Rockets' lone respectable scoring threat. Note, too, that 80 percent of the Rockets' home games this season have gone Under at 12-3-1. | |||||||
03-15-21 | Clippers -118 v. Mavs | Top | 109-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
The Clippers may have got caught peeking ahead to this matchup as they lost, 135-115, to the Pelicans on the road Sunday. Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis may come up big here for Dallas, but I want the Clippers going for me in their Revenge Game of the Year. Actually make that Revenge Game of the Century. Recall, if you must, the Clippers hosting the Mavericks two days after Christmas. Dallas absolutely humiliated LA, 124-73. The Mavericks led 77-27 at halftime! It was the biggest halftime deficit ever and the worst defeat in Clippers franchise history - which says a lot. The Clippers haven't been playing well, but they did bury the Warriors, 130-104, this past Thursday before falling to New Orleans. The Warriors just upset the Jazz yesterday. The Clippers shouldn't have a fatigue issue as this is just their third game since March 4. They have covered the past six times when playing without rest. Dallas enters this matchup fat and happy having gone 7-2 in its last nine games and off a highly-satisfying, 116-103, road victory against the Nuggets this past Saturday. Dallas is 6-15 ATS the last 21 times hosting an opponent with a winning road record. The Clippers also have covered in five of their last six visits to Dallas. | |||||||
03-14-21 | Celtics v. Rockets UNDER 223.5 | Top | 134-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Down John Wall, Christian Wood, Eric Gordon, Danuel House and P.J. Tucker, the Rockets could have the worst offense in the NBA. Houston's offense should pick up as early as Tuesday when Wall and Wood could return. But right now it's terrible. The Rockets are averaging 99.8 points in their last eight games. Boston's defense has been disappointing this season. The Celtics, though, have played average-to-well above average offenses during each of their past dozen games. They also have back defensive whiz Marcus Smart. Now the Celtics finally are drawing an offensively-challenged opponent. Houston Coach Stephen Silas has emphasized defense since becoming the Rockets coach. Houston is on a 15-game losing streak, but the short-handed Rockets showed plenty of moxie in their last game on the road against the powerful Jazz rallying from 26 points down to cut Utah's lead to four points in the fourth quarterback before losing. The Celtics are a below average scoring team when on the road. Boston is averaging only 103.7 points in its past seven away games. | |||||||
03-12-21 | Rockets +17 v. Jazz | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
As bad as the Rockets are - and they might be the worst team in the NBA with 14 consecutive losses - they have never been more than 10 1/2-point underdogs. Until now. Utah has the best record in the NBA and is home. So I don't dispute the oddsmaker's thinking on making this such a high number. It's justified. I just think circumstances work against Utah covering this large of a number. Yes, the Rockets are way, way down and are going to be missing veteran John Wall, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker. Christian Wood still is out, too. But the Rockets have some youthful talent with Kevin Porter Jr., Jae'Sean Tate, Kenyon Martin Jr. and Sterling Brown. This is their opportunity. So they should play hard. I doubt the Jazz will be motivated to produce an "A" level performance against such a low caliber opponent especially coming off All-Star break. Utah last played nine days ago. Even if the Jazz do build a huge advantage the backdoor should swing wide open for the Rockets to stay within this big of a point spread. That's because the Jazz embark on a five-game, nine-day road trip beginning Sunday at Golden State. So I'm not anticipating Utah's starters to log big minutes here. | |||||||
03-11-21 | Knicks v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | 101-134 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Except for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Julius Randle, both of whom played in last Sunday's All-Star Game, the rest of the Knicks and Bucks have been idle for a week. So there should be a rust factor. Defensive guru Tom Thibodeau has turned the Knicks into the No. 1 defense in the NBA. New York ranks first in scoring defense holding foes to 104.4 points a game, first in defensive field goal percentage and also is No. 1 in 3-point defense. The Under is 7-1 in New York's last eight road games. The Bucks have averaged just 104.6 points in their last three games as they adjust back to point guard Jrue Holiday, who had been out because of COVID-19. | |||||||
03-10-21 | Wizards v. Grizzlies UNDER 238 | Top | 112-127 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
I understand the Wizards play no defense, but have the capability with Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to light up the scoreboard thus proving tough to make an Under work. But there are enough factors here to feel confident that this total has been set too high. Beal was the only player from either team to play in last Sunday's All-Star game. All the other players haven't played in six days. That's just too long to go between games without there being a rust factor. Washington hosted Memphis eight days ago. The Grizzlies shot 49 percent from the floor and won, 125-111. The Wizards made 51 percent of their field goals. Beal and Westbrook both played. Yet the combined score came out to 236. This total opened higher. The Grizzlies have given up 112 points or fewer in five of their last six games despite playing the Mavericks, Clippers twice, Bucks and Wizards during this span. Memphis ranks eighth in the NBA defensively allowing 110.8 points. The Wizards have scored 116 points or fewer in regulation in five of their last seven games. They have given up fewer than 118 points in four of their last five games. The Under has cashed in seven of Washington's past nine road contests. | |||||||
03-04-21 | Thunder +7 v. Spurs | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
It's tough to do after last night's game. I know so well. I had the Thunder plus eight points against the Mavericks on Wednesday attacking the overnight line in the hopes Luka Doncic would be held out. As it turned out this is what I had going in Wednesday's Thunder-Mavericks game: Maximum line value - checkmark. Dallas closed a 5-point favorite. Doncic out - checkmark. He didn't play. Mavericks greatly missing Doncic - checkmark. The Thunder held Dallas to 87 points, which easily was the Mavericks' lowest-scoring game of the season. Thunder getting the cover and the money - No checkmark. Oklahoma City lost to Dallas, 87-78. Words can't adequately express how pissed I was with that result. I bring this up not to vent, although it feels good to unleash this pent-up anger. But to point out in the NBA you can't hold grudges. If the value is there you must get back in the saddle and I see value coming right back with Oklahoma City in this matchup. Yes, the Thunder did play last night. Prior to their game against the Mavericks, though, the Thunder hadn't played since last Saturday. It's San Antonio who has the bigger fatigue issue. This is the Spurs' third game in four days and fourth in six days. The Spurs are playing through a short rotation, too, due to illness. Rudy and Derrick White are out. LaMarcus Aldrdige has been logging short minutes and is questionable for this game. Despite the frustrating non-cover against the Mavericks, the Thunder still have covered 28 of their last 40 road contests for 70 percent. The Spurs are 10-25 (28 percent) ATS the last 35 times as home chalk. | |||||||
03-03-21 | Thunder +8 v. Mavs | 78-87 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
I'm locking into the Thunder at this number figuring superstar Luka Doncic is going to play. But Doncic isn't a given to play in this matchup. He's been bothered by lower back tightness. This is Dallas' final game before All-Star break so the Mavericks could choose to hold him to give him extra rest figuring they can still win this matchup without him. Obviously it would be a monster bonus if Doncic is held out. But, again, I'm not counting on that. Instead I'm relying on the Thunder's spunk, the situation and the Mavericks' poor track record in spots like this. Oklahoma City has covered 67 percent of its last 52 road contests. The Thunder are 3-2 in their last five games, but coming off an embarrassing, 126-99, home loss to the Nuggets. That game was played Saturday. So Oklahoma City has had three full days to prepare for this matchup. Dallas, on the other hand, is in action for the third time in five days. The Mavericks have failed to cover nine of the last 11 times they've been a home favorite. | |||||||
03-03-21 | Hawks v. Magic +4 | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
I get that Orlando is offensively-challenged and has lost its last four games. But who are the Hawks to be laying a road number like this? Atlanta took advantage of a cold-shooting game by the Jimmy Butler-less Heat on Tuesday to score a 94-80 road win, which halted the Heat's six-game win streak. It was the Hawks' first game since Lloyd Pierce was fired. Nate McMillan is Atlanta's interim coach. Glad the Hawks could win for him. But this sets up a letdown spot for the Hawks and Atlanta isn't nearly good enough to cover road numbers when not playing well unless their opponent turns in an "F" performance like Miami just did. Even beating the Heat last night the Hawks still committed 23 turnovers. Atlanta has talent. But the Hawks lack chemistry and good coaching. McMillan is a stop-gap, who has never proven himself to be more than a mediocre coach at best. Since Feb. 12, the Hawks have been favored four times. They lost straight-up in all four of those games falling to the Thunder, Cavaliers, Knicks and Spurs. Atlanta also is dealing with a fatigue factor. The Hawks are playing for the third time in four days, fourth time in six days and without rest. Atlanta is 5-13 ATS the last 18 times when playing on back-to-back days. The Magic were playing well up until about 10 days ago. They had defeated the Knicks, Warriors and Pistons. Then Detroit beat them in a revenge spot and the Magic followed that up with losses to the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks, although covering versus Dallas. The Hawks are a huge step down in class from the Nets, Jazz and Mavericks. | |||||||
03-03-21 | Bulls +6 v. Pelicans | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Stan Van Gundy said it himself. The Pelicans can beat any team - and lose to any team. The proof is in the results. New Orleans has lost to the Thunder, Rockets, Rockets, Pistons and Timberwolves. But the Pelicans also have defeated some heavyweights: Bucks, Suns and the Jazz two days ago at home. Now the Pelicans draw the 15-18 Bulls. The Pelicans lack the maturity and track record to overcome this flat spot where they are mid-range favorites. New Orleans is 2-9 ATS the last 11 times as a home favorite. The Bulls had won five of six games before losing to the Suns and Nuggets, both at home. Phoenix and Denver are much better teams than New Orleans. The Bulls have covered seven of the past eight times they've been road 'dogs. They also are 10-2 ATS during their past 12 visits to New Orleans. The Bulls defeated the Pelicans, 129-116, on Feb. 10 as 2 1/2-point favorites. Now look at the spread. It's not justified. Chicago hit a franchise-record 25 3-points in its win against New Orleans. The Bulls could be in line for another big night from 3-point range as the Pelicans rank 28th in 3-point defense. | |||||||
03-02-21 | Nuggets v. Bucks UNDER 235 | 128-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
The Bucks are a very good team. But so far they haven't reached the elite level they were during the past two regular seasons. That's because their defense hasn't reached the No. 2 rating that their offense holds. There are signs, though, that Milwaukee's defense is coming around. The Bucks have held their last five opponents to an average of 107.4 points. Milwaukee just held the Clippers, the No. 6 scoring team in the league, 15 points under their season average in a 105-100 home win two days ago. Denver ranks 11th in the NBA defensively. The Nuggets have held their past four opponents to an average of 106.5 points. This is the Nuggets' third game in four days and second in two days. Denver is short four rotation players because of injuries and sickness. So I don't anticipate a fast tempo from the Nuggets. | |||||||
03-01-21 | Hornets v. Blazers -6.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
The timing is terrible for Charlotte in this matchup. The Hornets pulled off a miracle victory on Sunday night nipping the Kings, 127-126. Charlotte trailed by eight points with 53 seconds left. But a combination of Hornets grit and the incompetent Kings choking allowed Charlotte to steal a victory. Even more remarkable is the Hornets pulled this win out despite not having Gordon Hayward nor Cody Zeller. Hayward is Charlotte's leading scorer while Zeller is their best big man. Both are injured. The Hornets' reward? They have to play again tonight at Portland, a place where they have lost the past 12 times going 2-10 ATS. This will be the Hornets' third road game in four days. Portland was idle this past weekend after losing, 102-93, on the road to the Lakers this past Friday. That was the Trail Blazers' fourth loss in a row. Portland's last three defeats, though, have all been on the road to excellent Western Conference teams - Lakers, Nuggets and Suns. The spot sets up perfectly for the Trail Blazers to stop their losing skid in grand style. | |||||||
03-01-21 | Mavs v. Magic +7 | 130-124 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
I rank Luka Doncic among the five best players in the NBA. The guy is like a modern day version of Oscar Robertson, who yes I did see back in the day. A triple-double machine. But while Doncic is elite, the Mavericks aren't. Dallas is a .500 team with the record to prove that - 16-16. So I don't see the Mavericks getting away with laying this many road points in a flat spot for them. The Mavericks are coming off an impressive 115-98 Saturday road victory against the Nets, which snapped Brooklyn's eight-game win streak. Dallas' last three games have been against the Celtics, 76ers and Nets. This is the conclusion of its three-game road trip. So I don't see the Mavericks producing another "A" game given the circumstances and motivational letdown facing a much weaker opponent than they've recently met. Historically, Dallas hasn't been good in this role going 5-16 ATS the last 21 times when facing a below .500 opponent. Let's examine the Magic's past six games. They beat improved Knicks and Warriors teams along with the Pistons. But in their last three games, they lost a rematch to the Pistons and were buried by the Nets and Jazz. No shame in losing to Brooklyn and Utah. Orlando was outclassed in those matchups. The Magic won't be so outclassed here and they are in stop-the-pain mode. Orlando actually gives up fewer points per game than Dallas. It's lack of scoring that really hurts the Magic. The combination of having Evan Fournier back - he missed the first meeting between the two teams that Dallas won, 112-98, on Jan. 9 - and the Mavericks' 22nd-ranked defense should help Orlando put up a respectable scoring number to keep this game close. | |||||||
02-28-21 | Grizzlies v. Rockets UNDER 223.5 | 133-84 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Discounting their 119 points versus the Wizards, the Rockets are averaging 101 points in their last eight games. That would rank last in the league by a full three points if that is what their scoring average was for the entire season. Houston ranks 26th in shooting percentage and last in 3-point shooting percentage. Not only will Houston be without its leading scorer, injured Christian Wood, but its third-leading scorer, Victor Oladipo, also won't play today due to a quad injury. The Rockets have to rely on their defense to halt their 10-game losing streak. They are a slightly above average defensive team. I'm expecting defensive intensity from both teams. The Grizzlies knocked off the Clippers this past Thursday. They then proceeded to get blown out by the Clippers, 119-99, two days ago in the rematch. LA shot 55 percent from the floor. This is what Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins was quoted as saying about that: "Our defense was average. It wasn't at the level (it needed to be), so the learning lesson is you've got to raise your level and your defense has got to be consistent, night in and night out, especially when you beat a team like the way we did." | |||||||
02-27-21 | Pacers -116 v. Knicks | 107-110 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
The Pacers and Knicks are each one game below .500. I love what Tom Thibodeau has done with the Knicks bringing back defense and respect. But I also like Indiana's first-year coach Nate Bjorkgren. The Pacers have the better roster. They've struggled lately, though, because of a difficult schedule. Indiana is 4-8 in its last 12 games. However, seven of those defeats occurred to the Celtics, Bulls in overtime, Nets, Jazz, Pelicans, Bucks and 76ers. New York, by contrast, has had it much easier. In their last six games, the Knicks have played home games versus the Kings, Warriors, Timberwolves, Hawks and Rockets. Their lone road contest during this span was against the Magic. So record-wise it might not seem like a step up game for the Knicks. But in my opinion it is and the price is right to back the superior team. | |||||||
02-27-21 | Wolves +4 v. Wizards | 112-128 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
There aren't many defenses worse than the Timberwolves. Washington is one such defense. The Wizards give up 119.5 points, which is three more points per game than what Minnesota allows. Washington, though, has been playing well. Thus the Wizards are laying their most points in this calendar year. It makes sense - on the surface. The Wizards are coming off a highly-successful 3-1 West Coast trip that culminated with an upset of the Nuggets this past Thursday night. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the NBA, losers of 10 of their last 11 games. But all of this is on the surface. The reality is the Timberwolves are much improved, too, and the Wizards are in a huge flat spot. The Wizards are in action for the fourth time in six days, all at different venues. This is their first home game following their four-game, seven day trip out West that went far better than expected. On deck for the Wizards is a much bigger conference matchup against the Celtics on Sunday. The Wizards could be looking ahead to that game smelling blood with the Celtics reeling. Minnesota has lost six in a row. But let's examine the Timberwolves' past seven games starting with an upset victory against the Raptors. That was followed by an eight-point loss to the Lakers, an overtime defeat to the Pacers, a five-point loss to the revenge-seeking Raptors, a four-point road loss to the much-improved Knicks, a blowout road loss to the Bucks and an overtime road defeat to the Bulls in a game they should have won and still might have if Karl-Anthony Towns didn't foul out in regulation. The Timberwolves are more respectable now with Towns healthy and Chris Finch as their new coach. Minnesota has been idle the past two days giving Finch needed time to work with his new team. Veteran Ricky Rubio is a good fit with Finch's up-tempo style lessening the impact of the Timberwolves being without D'Angelo Russell. | |||||||
02-26-21 | Hawks v. Thunder +5.5 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
The Hawks haven't won at Oklahoma City in five years. So I'm not buying the Hawks as this big of a road favorite. Atlanta not only has failed to cover the past three times it was favored, but lost all three of those games straight-up. Atlanta is in action for the third time in four days and fourth in six days. Not helping their fatigue rating is the Hawks also are short-handed. Not only is De'Andre Hunter, who was having a career season, out but Cam Reddish has missed the last two games with a sore Achilles. There isn't a hotter player in the NBA right now than the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 33.3 points and shooting 64 percent from the field during the past three games. The Thunder have a winning ATS mark as underdogs this season. | |||||||
02-25-21 | Magic +9 v. Nets | 92-129 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
The Nets are the hottest team in the Eastern Conference winners of seven in a row. But I don't think they are that good minus Kevin Durant to keep getting away with laying inflated numbers. Brooklyn didn't play well in its last game two days, but was fortunate to have played the Kings, losers of eight consecutive games. Orlando should provide more of an obstacle for Brooklyn. The Magic have been playing well lately. They had won three in a row beating the Warriors, much improved Knicks and Pistons before losing to Detroit in a rematch during their last game this past Tuesday. Perhaps the Magic were looking ahead to this matchup. Orlando gives up seven fewer points per game than Brooklyn, which has allowed at least 117 points in four of its past six games. The Magic have improved since Evan Fournier returned to the lineup after being injured. He gives Orlando a perimeter threat to go with rugged inside player, Nikola Vucevic. Brooklyn is 3-7 ATS the past 10 times as a home favorite. The Magic have covered in each of their last four visits to Brooklyn. They also have covered six of the last seven in the series. | |||||||
02-24-21 | Spurs v. Thunder +1 | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Spurs if they can beat the Thunder under these circumstances, which are being rusty and severely short-handed. San Antonio hasn't played in 10 days due to a COVID-19 outbreak that hit its team. Among the rotation players out for the Spurs are Rudy Gay and Derrick White. Making it worse, though, for the Spurs is leading scorer DeMar DeRozan, their best player, also is out for personal reasons following his father's death. Remember, too, the Spurs' top big man, LaMarcus Aldridge, has missed the last six games because of a hip injury. He's questionable. San Antonio not only had to deal with COVID, but also the city and state of Texas enduring a winter storm that left many without power or water. So the Spurs' concentration level might not be where it needs to be. Oklahoma City is not a good team by any means. But the Thunder are capable given the right circumstances. They upset the Bucks three home games ago and they hold a backcourt edge on the Spurs with DeRozan out with the tandem of high-scoring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and promising rookie Theo Maledon. | |||||||
02-24-21 | Wolves +4 v. Bulls | 126-133 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
I'm not going to land on the Timberwolves too much, but this is one of those rare spots. Chicago is fat and happy riding a two-game win streak and seeing Zach LaVine being named the first Bulls player to make the All-Star team since 2017. Chicago's victories, however, have come against the Kings, losers of eight in a row, and the Rockets, who also have dropped eight consecutive games. LaVine is the NBA's seventh-leading scorer, but maybe the worst defender in the league. The Timberwolves played their first game under new coach Chris Finch last night. Unfortunately for Finch it came against the Bucks - and the Timberwolves were predictably blown out. This matchup, though, should prove far more even. The Timberwolves have the best big man on the court by far in Karl Anthony-Towns and should play hard for their new coach in what shapes up as a competitive spot. Minnesota actually has been very good in this role - 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents. The Timberwolves also have covered eight of their last 10 meetings versus Chicago, who has a losing spread mark this season when favored. | |||||||
02-24-21 | Warriors v. Pacers -120 | 111-107 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
Stephen Curry is having a monster season. He and his Warriors, though, can not overcome a huge fatigue factor while taking on a rested home Indiana club that caused the Warriors fits inside when the teams met last month. The Pacers won that game, 104-95, getting a combined 40 points and 26 rebounds from big men Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner. This time around the Pacers draw the Warriors playing their fourth road matchup in six days and second in two nights after getting past the Knicks, 114-106, last night. The Warriors have covered just 23 percent of the time the past 23 times when playing without rest. Indiana hasn't played in a week. The Pacers used that time to rest and get in additional practice. Their offense has been humming averaging 120.5 points the past four games. Indiana has won three of its last four. | |||||||
02-23-21 | Celtics -117 v. Mavs | 107-110 | Loss | -117 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
The Celtics are coming off maybe their most frustrating loss of the season, blowing a 24-point second half lead in a 120-115 overtime loss to the Pelicans this past Sunday. Boston is far from in peak form. The Celtics desperately miss underrated injured guard Marcus Smart. But the Celtics have the coaching with Brad Stevens and firepower with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker to bounce back in what shapes up as a character test for them. Boston usually is good in this role covering seven of the past nine times following a defeat. Dallas is in action for only the second time since Feb. 14. The Mavericks defeated the Grizzlies, 102-92, at home last night. The Celtics are a step up for Dallas. The Mavericks' last eight games have been against mediocre-to-bad teams. The last time Dallas played a strong team was the Suns back on Feb. 1. The Mavericks are 2-9 SU, 3-8 ATS versus above average teams this season. They also are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. | |||||||
02-23-21 | Kings +6.5 v. Nets | 118-127 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Fat and happy the Nets return to Brooklyn having completed an impressive road sweep. They won five games in nine days with the last coming this past Sunday against the Clippers in a tight and dramatic, 112-108, win. One of the Nets' victories during this road trip was 136-125 against the Kings eight days ago. This is Brooklyn's first home game in two weeks. Why should the Nets care about the Kings, who have lost seven in a row and who they just dismantled? They shouldn't and probably won't. It's a monster letdown spot for the Nets. The Kings have been dangerous in one role - road underdog. They are 23-9 ATS the last 32 times in that situation. Brooklyn also has failed to cover seven of the past nine times it has been favored at home. | |||||||
02-23-21 | Pistons +3.5 v. Magic | 105-93 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
No matter how bad their roster looks, or how bad their last game was, it can be a mistake to automatically assume the Pistons are always going to get blown out. The youthful Pistons have a certain resiliency to them. Since Jan. 28 they have pulled off upset victories against the Lakers, Nets, Celtics and Pelicans. Orlando just defeated Detroit, 105-96, two days ago at home. The major storyline was Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier combining to score 66 points. But there were three other takeaways from that nine-point Detroit loss that shouldn't be overlooked: No. 1. Detroit shot 37.4 percent from the floor. Detroit shoots 43.5 percent from the floor on the season. Orlando ranks 16th in defensive field goal percentage. No. 2. Orlando shot 29 free throws, eight more free throws than Detroit. The Magic also made 26 giving them a 90 percent free throw shooting percentage. The Magic shoot 78.8 percent from the foul line on the season. No. 3. Dennis Smith Jr. failed to adequately replace starting point guard Delon Wright, who is out for Detroit because of a groin strain. However, rookie Saben Lee stepped up and looked outstanding. This is what Pistons coach Dwane Casey said about Lee's performance: ''He's competitive, he's tough, he just sets the tone. The whole complexion of the game changed when he came in.'' The Pistons have displayed their competitiveness by covering seven of the past 10 times following a loss. They also had covered four straight versus the Magic until that last game. | |||||||
02-22-21 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 230 | Top | 100-132 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
Perception fails to meet reality here. The result is this sets up a solid Under play. Damian Lillard. Chris Paul. Devin Booker. All big stars. Paul is a likely Hall of Famer. The Trail Blazers are averaging 120.4 points in their last five games. The Suns are averaging 128 points in their last three games. So the oddsmaker has good reason to set this high of a total. But on much closer inspection, I find it too high. The Trail Blazers have played five straight below-average defensive teams. The Suns rank fourth in the league in scoring defense allowing 107.8 points. Phoenix has the third-best 3-point defense in the NBA so Lillard does not figure to have an easy time. Portland doesn't have a second consistent scorer with CJ McCollum out. Portland is a bottom-six defense. The Suns, however, are due for some severe offensive regression. They have made 54.1 percent of their 3-point shots (46-for-85) during their last two games. Phoenix's season average from beyond the arch is 37.7 percent, which ranks 11th. Portland has the 12th-best 3-point defense in the league. The Suns have put up their high-scoring totals the past three games going against below averages defenses - Grizzlies, Pelicans and Nets. The aging Paul is a half-court point guard. Because of him, the Suns play at one of the slowest paces in the league. Portland isn't up-tempo either. | |||||||
02-21-21 | Wolves v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
Defense. Situation. Coaching. Everything adds up for the Knicks in this matchup. So I'm really surprised the line opened so short. Maybe it's because there's a perception the Knicks are still a bottom-feeder like the Timberwolves. They aren't. The Knicks have made tremendous strides under former Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau. New York has become the best defensive team in the NBA ranking first in scoring defense, defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Knicks surrender 12 fewer points per game than Minnesota. The Timberwolves are the worst team in the league with a 7-23 record. They rank in the bottom-six both offensively and defensively. They are minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell. The Timberwolves are short-handed in the backcourt with Russell and Jarrett Culver both out. Minnesota will be playing its fourth game in six days. The previous three games all were at home. The Timberwolves have lost 12 of their last 14 road contests. The Knicks have been idle since Wednesday when they lost as a road favorite against the Magic, 107-89. That loss kept New York from reaching .500. Thibodeau, a defensive guru, has had extra preparation time to figure out how to adequately replace injured center Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks have won and covered five of their last seven home games. Obviously Thibodeau would like to beat the franchise that fired him midway through the 2018-19 season after he had led them to the playoffs the previous season. Minnesota hadn't made the postseason in 13 seasons before Thibodeau came along. The Knicks shouldn't lack motivation and focus. The stumbling Timberwolves already are in rebuild mode again. | |||||||
02-20-21 | Heat v. Lakers -3 | 96-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
The Lakers are coming off a 109-98 home loss to the Nets this past Thursday. The Lakers haven't lost two straight home games all season. I don't see the Heat pulling off the feat. Miami has failed to step up all season. In their last 11 games, the Heat have played nine games against the Wizards (twice), Hornets, Rockets, Kings (twice), Knicks (twice) and Hornets. The only time they played above .500 teams during this span were matchups against the Jazz and Clippers. The Jazz beat the Heat by 18 points in Utah and the Clippers defeated the Heat by seven points in LA. Note the Clippers were minus Kawhi Leonard and Paul George when they knocked off the Heat. In the five games previous to their last 11 games, the Heat played the Clippers, Nuggets, Nets twice and Raptors. They went 0-5 in those tough matchups. Miami is 0-6 ATS the last six times it has gone against an above .500 opponent. Miami has gotten healthy. So I believe the Heat will start improving. But I don't think this is the spot for the Heat even with Anthony Davis out for LA. | |||||||
02-19-21 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 231 | 132-114 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
This is the third meeting of the season between these two teams. The Suns won the first one, 111-86, on Dec. 29. The total on that game was 221 1/2. There were 197 points scored. The Pelicans won the second meeting. 123-101, on Feb. 3. That total was 223 and just barely got Over with 224 points scored. Now look at the total for this game. I'm locking in at 231 1/2 - which is 7 1/2 points higher than what it was when the teams met 16 days ago. The oddsmaker has been influenced by recent scores. The Suns lost 128-124 to the Nets on Tuesday in their last game. The Pelicans are off a 126-124 loss to the Trail Blazers two days ago. The Pelicans beat the Grizzlies, 144-113, three days ago. So I get why the oddsmaker has raised the Over/Under on these teams. I just don't agree with this big of a jump. The Suns give up the eighth-fewest points in the NBA per game at 108. They are going to be extremely motivated to clamp down defensively for the entire game after losing their concentration and blowing a big lead against the Nets. Stan Van Gundy has been unable to get the Pelicans to play consistent defense. New Orleans, however, is a below average but not terrible defensive club ranking 23rd giving up 114.5 points per game. The Pelicans also should have incentive to improve their defense after their previous performance. | |||||||
02-18-21 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 236 | 110-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
Neither the Raptors nor the Bucks are playing defense nearly as well as last season. Toronto gave up the fewest points per game in the NBA last season, while Milwaukee surrendered the eighth-fewest. So I understand why the oddsmaker has set such a high total. The teams just met two days ago in Milwaukee and Toronto won, 124-113. The combined 237 points just grazed above the posted number of 235 1/2. Before Tuesday's game, the Under had cashed the past six times between the Raptors and Bucks. I believe the Under goes back to cashing again in this quick turnaround matchup. It's not like Toronto and Milwaukee suddenly have stopped playing defense. They both are in the top 12 in defensive field goal percentage. The Raptors were hot on Tuesday making 51 percent of their shots from the field and 40 percent of their 3-point shots. Toronto shoots 45.3 percent from the field and 38 percent from beyond the arc. The teams shot a combined 46 free throws, too. That's what it took for Tuesday's total to go Over. The Bucks are in stop-the-pain mode losers of four in a row. Their offense has been down averaging 112 points during the past three games. That's eight points fewer per game than what they average on the season. Point guard Jrue Holiday has been missed. The Bucks haven't had him the last five games due to COVID-19 protocols. Holiday is eligible to play today. If he does, he's likely to be rusty. I'm expecting an intense defensive effort by the Bucks to offset their offensive downtick. Toronto may not have point guard Kyle Lowery. He suffered an ankle injury during Tuesday's game. The Raptors did get back OG Anunoby after a 10-game absence. This is a plus for the Under. Anunoby is a versatile defender who has the ability to effectively cover a big man like Giannis Antetokounmpo, or a very good wing such as Khris Middleton. | |||||||
02-17-21 | Rockets v. 76ers UNDER 227.5 | Top | 113-118 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Who is Shake Milton and why is he a key to this Under the total handicap? Milton is a reserve guard for the 76ers. He is instant offense. Milton averages 14 points, fourth-highest on the 76ers. He's missed the 76ers' last three games with a sprained ankle and won't play again today. Minus Milton, Philadelphia reserves averaged a meager 22 points a game the last three games. Houston is a defensive-minded club under Stephen Silas. The days of Mike D'Antoni are a distant memory. The Rockets are 23rd in scoring, but rank in the top nine in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. The Under is 16-7-1 in Houston's past 24 games. The Rockets have little firepower left with Christian Wood, Victor Oladipo, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker all dealing with injuries. The 76ers rank sixth in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage. They are one of the better rebounding teams in the league. Joel Embiid is expected to play after missing the 76ers' Monday game against the Jazz because of back tightness. If Embiid has to miss a second straight game, Dwight Howard would replace him. That would be an unexpected bonus for the Under as Howard doesn't have an offensive game anymore and is a horrible free throw shooter. The 76ers have lost three in a row. The Rockets have dropped six straight. Expect a lot of defensive intensity as these teams try to halt their losing skids. | |||||||
02-16-21 | Nuggets v. Celtics -130 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Right now the Celtics are just a so-so team. They are 13-13 and have lost 10 of their last 15 games, including four of their past five.The 8-17 Wizards beat the Celtics in Boston's last game two days ago. Highly underrated Marcus Smart is out for Boston with a calf injury. But I believe the frustrated Celtics show up here in this circle-the-wagons game for them. They draw the Nuggets, who are fat and happy winners of three in a row with the latest being a 17-point highly-satisfying home victory against the Lakers this past Sunday. Denver has been home the past 10 days. The Nuggets are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three road contests losing to the Kings, Lakers and Spurs by a combined 36 points. Boston won't have Smart again. But the Celtics have plenty of firepower with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker. Denver has its own superstars in Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. But the Nuggets are in worse shape injury-wise than Boston. They've been missing Gary Harris, PJ Dozier, and Paul Millsap. Spark plug Will Barton didn't play against the Lakers for personal reasons. These sidelined players severely limit the Nuggets' depth and flexibility forcing them to rely on untested, inexperienced players. | |||||||
02-15-21 | Bulls +5.5 v. Pacers | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
It's a mistake to underestimate the Bulls on the road. During their last nine away games, the Bulls have beaten the Trail Blazers, Mavericks, Hornets and Magic. Their five losses have come by the grand total of 15 points to the Lakers (by two points), to the Clippers (by three points), to the Thunder in overtime (by two points), to the Kings (by four points) and to the Magic (by four points). Chicago has covered the past six times it has been a road 'dog. Indiana is 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. The Pacers are returning to Indianapolis following a three-game road swing that ended this past Saturday night with a victory against the Hawks. This is the Pacers' first home game in eight days so their attention could be a bit off. Indiana is 6-9 SU, 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games since an 8-4 start. So the Pacers are far from peak form. Chicago does have injuries - Wendell Carter Jr., Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen are all likely to miss the game. Don't forget, though, the Pacers remain without T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert. | |||||||
02-14-21 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 217 | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
LeBron James and Anthony Davis are superstars. But what helps make them such mega-stars is their all-around games. They are more than scoring machines. Both are excellent defenders and a big reason why the Lakers rank No. 2 defensively in the NBA giving up 105.2 points a game. After five straight home games, the Lakers are on the road. The Under has won in 12 of the Lakers' 14 road games this season. Denver is an above average defensive team ranking 12th giving up 111.2 points. The Nuggets have held their last two opponents, Cleveland and Oklahoma City, to 95 points apiece. Nuggets coach Michael Malone knows his team must have defensive intensity to beat the Lakers. I expect the Nuggets to have that after the Lakers defeated them in the Western Conference Finals last season and in the first meeting this season, 114-93, in LA on Feb. 4. The Nuggets led the Lakers at halftime in their meeting 10 days ago. But the Lakers stepped up their game in the second half to win by 21 points. The combined 207 points went Under the posted total of 217 by 10 points. The Nuggets should have learned from that recent loss that they must play better transition defense while staying motivated the entire game. I don't look for the Lakers to attack up-tempo. This is their fifth game in nine days with three of their past four games going into overtime. What I am expecting is playoff-type defense and intensity from both teams in this nationally televised (ESPN) matchup. | |||||||
02-13-21 | Rockets -103 v. Knicks | 99-121 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
The Rockets are in stop-the-pain mode losers of four games in a row. Those losses have come to the Spurs, Hornets on the road, Pelicans on the road and Heat in which Houston blew a 13-point lead. I don't consider the Knicks better than any of those teams. However, the 12-15 Knicks definitely are improved under Tom Thibodeau. The Rockets aren't going to have Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo. P.J. Tucker probably isn't going to play either. Still, the Rockets aren't lacking in talent with John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. The Knicks dominated inside in beating the Wizards, 109-91, on the road Friday night. The Wizards rested Bradley Beal. The 6-17 Wizards rank last defensively surrendering 120.3 points. The Knicks scoring 109 points isn't impressive. New York ranks last in scoring, in fact, at 102.7 points per game. Houston averages seven points more per game. Cousins' matchup became a lot easier when Knicks center Mitchell Robinson suffered a broken hand against Washington. That's a tough blow for the Knicks, who also are playing without rest here. | |||||||
02-12-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Bulls | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
Kudos to the Bulls for knocking off the hot Pelicans, 129-116, at home this past Wednesday. Chicago accomplished the feat by draining a franchise-best 25 3-pointers. Zach LaVine and Coby White led the way scoring a combined 76 points. I don't see the Bulls repeating their "A" level performance against the Clippers, an elite team that I rank three levels higher than Chicago. The question that needs to be answered is can the Clippers cover this mid-sized road number? They didn't cover an 8 1/2-point road spread in their last game, a 119-112 win against the Timberwolves two days ago. The Clippers started flat against Minnesota trailing by 13 points in the first half. I expect a better performance from the Clippers. LA also won't be taking Chicago lightly. The Bulls nearly upset the Clippers in the first meeting, losing 130-127 as 12-point road 'dogs on Jan. 10. The Bulls made an incredible 61 percent of their field goals in that game while the Clippers connected on 48.9 percent. Still, the Clippers still won by three points. Chicago is playing short-handed. Out are Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. Otto Porter Jr. missed the Pelicans' game with a back injury. So he may not play either. LaVine and White will have to step up in a big way again. Paul George is out for the Clippers with a toe injury. However, LA did get back lockdown defender guard Patrick Beverley against the Timberwolves. White shoots just 40.3 percent from the field. LaVine is a great scorer, but he may be the worst defensive guard in the NBA. Kawhi Leonard is playing at a high level for the Clippers. So whatever LaVine gets he's likely to give back even more. The Clippers rank fifth defensively and are ninth in 3-point defense. Chicago ranks 27th defensively. A motivated Clippers team should beat a short-handed Bulls team by double-digits. | |||||||
02-11-21 | Pacers -3 v. Pistons | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
Returning to Detroit after going 0-4 on their West Coast trip, the Pistons upset the Nets, 122-111, at home this past Tuesday. The Pistons are capable of pulling off a surprise like this. Just ask the Lakers. But by no means are the Pistons a good team. They have yet to win consecutive games this season. I don't see it happening today against the Pacers either. Indiana is at low ebb. The Pacers have dropped a season-high four games in a row. They have been held to their lowest scoring performances in each of their last two games. Brooklyn just defeated Indiana, 104-94, at home Wednesday night. Let's look, though, at who the Pacers have lost to during their skid. They were beaten by the Bucks, the Pelicans - who were playing their basketball of the season with four victories in a row until losing to the Bulls on Wednesday - the Jazz, who are the hottest team in the NBA, and the Nets of James Harden and Kyrie Irving. Now the Pacers are dropping way down in class meeting the Pistons. Indiana is playing without rest. However, the Pacers were idle this past Monday and Tuesday before losing to the Nets last night. So there isn't a fatigue factor. Indiana also is 4-1 ATS the last five times on the second of back-to-back games. The Pacers have excelled in this spot going 11-3-1 ATS the past 15 times as a road favorite. | |||||||
02-10-21 | Bucks v. Suns +4.5 | Top | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
The Suns showed their improvement last season going unbeaten in the Orlando bubble. The lone team to do that during the rebooted season. Phoenix's improvement has carried into this season. The Suns are 14-9 and have a real shot to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Phoenix has the fourth-ranked defense in the league, emerging superstar Devin Booker and underrated team depth. This is a rare nationally televised (ESPN) home game for the Suns, who will be allowing around 1,500 fans into their arena. The Suns have covered eight of the last 10 times they've been underdogs. This will be Booker's sixth game back following a hamstring injury. He's back in top form both scoring and dishing off. The Suns obviously are going to be sky-high for this matchup. Milwaukee is riding a season-best five-game win streak. This handicap isn't a fade on the Bucks. It's far more about the Suns. But Milwaukee has to be a little fat and happy after dismantling the Nuggets, 125-112, at Denver this past Monday to go 3-0 on its current six-game road swing. This also marks the Bucks' fourth game in six days. I'm liking the Suns to cover, if not win, with the expectation they won't have Chris Paul. He missed the Suns' last game, a 119-113 home win against the Cavaliers, this past Monday with a hamstring injury. E'Twaun Moore and Booker stepped up nicely in Paul's absence. The Bucks also are likely to be missing their best point guard with Jrue Holiday in COVID-19 protocol. Word is that Holiday has tested positive for COVID-19. Phoenix is 6-1 in its last seven games and has defeated the Bucks in three of the past four meetings. | |||||||
02-09-21 | Rockets v. Pelicans UNDER 226.5 | 101-130 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
These teams just saw each other recently with the Rockets beating the Pelicans, 126-112, in New Orleans on Jan. 30. Both coaches stress defense so look for some tweaks and defensive adjustments this time around. There's also something else different. The Rockets had Christian Wood and Victor Oladpio in that victory. They led Houston to the win by combining to score 47 points while shooting a combined 18-for-27 from the field and 4 of 4 from the foul line. Neither is going to play today. Wood is out with an ankle injury and the Rockets have announced that Oladipo is going to be rested. The Rockets played last night, losing to Charlotte, 119-94, on the road. This marks Houston's third game in four days and second in two days so the Rockets aren't likely to push pace. Before surrendering 119 points to the Hornets, the Rockets had held their previous nine opponents to an average of 103.8 points. That would rank first in defense if computed during the entire season. New Orleans has been playing better defense. The Pelicans have held their last three foes to an average of 107.6 points a game, which would rank fifth if that were their average for the entire season. | |||||||
02-08-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
It's not so much who you play, but when you play them. That's a major handicap when dealing with the NBA regular season. It's a reason why I'm backing the underdog Cavaliers, who are 1-5 in their last six games and coming off three blowout home losses while the Suns are 5-1 in their last six games. Phoenix has opened its current seven-game homestand with victories against the Pistons and Celtics on Sunday. Following this game, the Suns host the Bucks on Wednesday and then 76ers on Saturday. The Suns are fat and happy right now with a pair of far more challenging and marquee matchups on deck. Cleveland, though, is improved. The Cavaliers have talent with Andre Drummond and an underrated backcourt of Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. Yes, the Cavs were blown out at home in their last three games. Two of those losses came to the Bucks and the other came against the Clippers, who had both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in their lineup. Those are "A" level opponents. Phoenix isn't in that class. The Cavaliers want to begin again and this is their chance, the start of a five-game West Coast trip. Cleveland ranks ninth defensively, but 29th in scoring averaging 103.6. The Suns, however, are averaging only 105.5 points in regulation during their past seven games. That's fewer than two points more per game than Cleveland. Phoenix also carries a fatigue rating. This is the Suns' fourth game in six days and second in two days. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Pistons +14 v. Lakers | 129-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show | |
It was 10 days ago that the Pistons upset the Lakers, 107-92, as 7-point home 'dogs. Now it's the Lakers' turn to return the favor and this time they have Anthony Davis, who missed the earlier Pistons game. But having Davis and home-court isn't worth seven extra points.The oddsmaker didn't think so opening this game Lakers minus 13. Early marketplace activity has put the Lakers up to minus 14. Yes, this is a revenge spot. But the Lakers aren't some up-and-coming team out to settle personal grudges. They followed up a grueling 5-2 road trip with an impressive home victory against the Nuggets on Thursday night. LA has played well this season, but its goal is to peak when the playoffs come round just like last season. The Lakers will take care of business here, but they have no need to go all out to bury the Pistons, who they won't see again. Note that the Lakers are 1-5 ATS the past six times versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. After upsetting the Lakers, the Pistons took to the road. This is the finale of a four-game West Coast trip that has not gone well. Detroit is 0-3 on their its losing by 27 points to the Warriors, by 12 to the red-hot Jazz and by 17 to the much-improved Suns. So this is a stop-the-pain game for the Pistons, who should play the Lakers with more confidence than most teams. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Grizzlies +1.5 v. Pelicans | 109-118 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Memphis had won and covered seven in a row until its last two games, losses to the Rockets and Pacers. So the Grizzlies are pointing to this matchup especially JaMorant, who treats this opponent with extra special motivation because Zion Williamson was drafted ahead of him. The timing is good for Memphis because it gets back big man Jonas Valanciunas and Grayson Allen to help its backcourt depth. Valanciunas' return is huge because the Pelicans are dangerous inside with Williamson and Steven Adams. New Orleans ranks seventh in the NBA in points in the paint. The Grizzlies have won six of their eight road contests, while the Pelicans are 5-5 at home. New Orleans is coming off consecutive victories against the Suns followed by an upset victory at Indiana, 114-113, two days ago. The Pelicans have not won three games in a row all season. They also are 1-7 ATS the last eight times as a home favorite. | |||||||
02-06-21 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 223.5 | Top | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This total isn't high enough even if both teams weren't missing their top low-post scorers. San Antonio is averaging 110.8 pts in its last five games. The Spurs are a better defensive team than offensive team. They also are without LaMarcus Aldridge. That means big minutes for Jakob Proeltl, an Under bettor's delight - a shot-blocker with a limited offensive game and a terrible free throw shooter. The Rockets have become a defensive team-first under Stephen Silas. Houston ranks in the top-six in many of the major defensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Houston has surrendered just 103 points per game during its last eight games. The Rockets are without their leading scorer, Christian Wood. Not only was Wood averaging 22 points, but he was shooting 55.8 percent from the field. The team's met twice in mid-January. Both games went Under with a combined scoring total of 214 and 194 in those games. | |||||||
02-05-21 | Jazz v. Hornets +8.5 | 138-121 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Early marketplace activity has been on Utah. It's understandable considering the Jazz have won 13 of their last 14 and just rolled past the Hawks, 112-91, on Thursday to open their 3-game road trip. This looms as a flat spot, though, for the Jazz. They have a tougher game against the Pacers on deck Sunday. After that game, Utah goes home to play the Celtics and Bucks. This also mark's Utah's third game in four days and fifth matchup in eight days. The Hornets are a spunky team at best in an underdog role where they are 20-7-2 (74 percent) the past 29 times taking points. This includes a money-banking 9-2-1 ATS mark as a home 'dog. Charlotte likely won't have starting power forward P.J. Washington again. He's out with a foot injury. But underrated big man Cody Zeller is back and the Hornets also expect to have shooting guard Terry Rozier in the lineup after he missed time with an ankle injury. The Jazz have been hot from 3-point range. The Hornets have an above average 3-point defense to counter that. | |||||||
02-05-21 | Wizards +6.5 v. Heat | 95-122 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
I realize the defending Eastern Conference champion Heat are much better than their 7-14 record. By the same token, though, the Wizards are better than their 5-13 record now that they finally are at full strength. Both teams have to deal with injuries and extensive COVID-19 issues. Miami, however, can not be laying this many points to an opponent who is better than perceived at this stage of their season right now. The Heat are 1-7 in their last eight games. They just were outplayed by the Wizards in a 103-100 loss as 9-point home favorites this past Wednesday. Russell Westbrook didn't even play in that game. Westbrook was rested. He's back in action for this one teaming up with Bradley Beal, who torched Miami for 32 points two days ago. The Wizards are a far more respectable team with Davis Bertans, Deni Avdija and Rui Hachimura all back in the rotation. The Heat have several key players rounding into shape from injuries and sickness, including Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic. Miami is 0-7-1 ATS the last eight times when favored. | |||||||
02-04-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Lakers | 93-114 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
As great as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are, nobody has been playing as well as Denver big man Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets ended the Jazz's 11-game win streak in their last game. That was back on Sunday. So the Nuggets have had ample rest and preparation time. Denver has been pointing to this matchup, the first time the Nuggets are playing the Lakers after LA beat them in the conference finals. This is the Lakers' first home game following a seven-game road trip that concluded with a 107-99 victory against the Hawks this past Monday. So it's not an ideal spot for the Lakers. The Lakers are 16-6, but they are far from being in peak form. They are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. During this home span the Lakers lost 115-113 to the Warriors, defeated the Pelicans, 112-95, nipped the Bulls, 117-115, lost to the Spurs, 118-109, and fell to the Trail Blazers, 115-107. | |||||||
02-03-21 | Wolves v. Spurs -8 | 108-111 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
I have to believe Gregg Popovich is going to have the Spurs ultra competitive in this spot after San Antonio lost two straight to the Grizzlies, both at home. The Spurs' 133-102 loss to Memphis this past Monday was their most lopsided of the season. Minnesota is 2-8 in its last 10 games. The Timberwolves' lone victories during this span were against the short-handed Cavaliers and Pelicans. Minnesota has lost eight consecutive road games. Karl-Anthony Towns has missed the past nine games. The Timberwolves rarely have been competitive without him. Minnesota has lost by 12 or more points during four of its last five defeats. The Spurs aren't going to have LeMarcus Aldridge. I'm fine with that. Aldridge isn't the All-Star of past seasons. The absence of Aldridge is more than offset with the Timberwolves again being without Towns and guard Jarret Culver, a key member of their rotation. The Timberwolves are in action for the fourth time in six days. San Antonio won't play again until Saturday against the Rockets in Houston. Another reason the Spurs shouldn't be holding anything back. Before losing two in a row to the Grizzlies, the Spurs had defeated the Celtics and Nuggets in their previous home games. So the Spurs are capable of dispatching the Timberwolves by double-digits. | |||||||
02-02-21 | Blazers +2 v. Wizards | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
The Wizards are coming off their biggest win of the season beating the Nets, 149-146, on Sunday after trailing by 18 points. The Wizards aren't used to winning. They are 4-12. It's a rare letdown spot for the Wizards. Washington has been favored four times. The Wizards have lost three of those times straight-up. Portland is off its worst loss of the season, 134-106, to the host Bucks on Monday. The timing was bad for the Trail Blazers. They caught the Bucks returning home off consecutive road losses to the Pelicans and Hornets. Now the timing is bad for Washington, which has the worst defense in the NBA. The Trail Blazers have covered six of their nine away contests this season. They also have defeated the Wizards during each of the last three meetings. | |||||||
02-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 224.5 | 136-106 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
James Harden is gone. Mike D'Antoni isn't the coach. The Rockets have a new identity these days. Their offense is a work-in-progress and their coach, Stephen Silas, stresses defense first. Quite a difference from who they used to be. Houston hasn't reached 108 points in four of its last six games. However, the Rockets' defense has stepped way up giving up an average of 102.2 points in their last five games. That would rank No. 1 in the NBA if computed for the entire season. Oklahoma City also is dealing with a new identity. The Thunder have scored 106 or fewer points in four of their last six games. So why do we have a total this large? The oddsmaker didn't miss the Thunder's last game. That was a 147-125 home loss to the Nets this past Friday. The Nets, though, lead the NBA in scoring at 122 points a game while ranking 27th defensively. Aside from being Harden's last team, the Nets have nothing in common with the Rockets. The Rockets should be able to clamp down on the Thunder, who have been missing injured veteran point guard George Hill. Oklahoma City ranks 25th in scoring. The Thunder should have great motivation to clamp down on the Rockets following their worst defensive game of the season. They've had three days to rest and prepare. | |||||||
01-31-21 | Cavs -3 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
The Timberwolves have shown they can't function without their best player, Karl-Anthony Towns. He's going to miss his eighth straight game here due to COVID-19 protocols. Minnesota is 2-14 in its last 16 games and 2-6 ATS in its past eight contests. There's a chance the Timberwolves could be minus their second-best player, D'Angelo Russell, too. He's been dealing with a bruised quad. Russell played in the Timberwolves' 118-94 home loss to the 76ers, but shot just 3-of-11 from the floor in 25 minutes. Not only are the Timberwolves a fade in their present state, but the buy sign is on the Cavaliers following their 102-81 loss to the Knicks this past Friday. That was the Cavaliers' second humiliating road loss in a row. They were beaten by 38 points by the Celtics in their previous away game one week ago. The Cavaliers want to make a road statement here. They have the perfect patsy in which to make that statement. It helps, too, the Cavaliers finally are at full strength with Darius Garland and Larry Nance Jr. back in the lineup. Andre Drummond leads the NBA in rebounding and Collin Sexton is the league's 16th-leading scorer averaging 24.6 points. The Cavaliers have underrated talent. Cleveland has covered during five of its last six visits to Minnesota. | |||||||
01-30-21 | Pistons v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 91-118 | Win | 100 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
The Warriors beat the Pistons in Detroit, 116-106, back on Dec. 29 achieving the victory despite not having Draymond Green, their second-best player. Golden State has improved since then with Green back in the lineup going 8-7 since defeating Detroit. The Pistons couldn't stop Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, who combined for 58 points in the win. Curry leads the NBA in 3-pointers. The Pistons rank 26th in 3-point defense. So Curry and Wiggins could be in line for big games again. Detroit upset both the 76ers and Lakers this week. Both victories came at home. The Pistons caught the 76ers minus Joel Embiid and the Lakers without Anthony Davis. This isn't to downplay the Pistons' upset wins. They were impressive. The 107-92 smashing of the Lakers came just two days ago. I doubt the Pistons play nearly that well in this spot following that hugely-satisfying home win. Detroit has lost its past three road games, including its last one to the Cavaliers, 122-107, this past Wednesday. This marks Detroit's fourth game in six days. The Warriors should be motivated after a flat performance in a 114-93 road loss to the Suns this past Thursday. Golden State has covered the past five times hosting an opponent that has a losing road record. | |||||||
01-29-21 | Pacers v. Hornets +3.5 | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
I quickly glance past those rare sports when the Hornets are favored. But when they are underdogs, I take notice. Charlotte is one of those NBA teams nobody cares about, or respects, but can earn you money in the right spot. That spot is taking points. They are 14-5-1 ATS the past 20 times as underdogs. This is short revenge for the Hornets. They lost 116-106 as 3-point home 'dogs to the Pacers two days ago. Charlotte shot 41 percent from the floor in that defeat. Indiana made 51 percent of its field goals. Doug McDermott had a monster game for Indiana shooting 12-of-22 from the field while scoring 28 points. That was unexpected. McDermott averages 13 points and is a career 46.7 percent shooter from the floor. | |||||||
01-29-21 | Hawks v. Wizards +4 | 116-100 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
I don't trust the Hawks as road favorites. The Wizards finally are getting up to speed physically with Davis Bertans, Rui Hachimura and Moritz Wagner all coming off COVID-19 protocols. Russell Westbrook also is ready after being rested during the Wizards' 124-106 road loss to the Pelicans this past Wednesday. Star guard Bradley Beal expressed his disappointment and anger with that defeat, which was Washington's third loss in a row and dropped its record to 3-11. That's the worst mark in the NBA and an embarrassment for the Wizards. I'm expecting an all-out effort from the Wizards, who haven't hosted a game since Jan. 11 when they upset the Suns, 128-107. Hachimura is an underrated key for Washington. The Wizards are 3-3 in games he has played. The Hawks just got through playing the Bucks, beating the Clippers at home and taking the Nets to overtime in a home loss this past Wednesday. After this road contest, the Hawks return home to take on the Lakers in their biggest Western Conference opponent matchup. The Hawks aren't nearly good enough to cover this spread if they don't produce a solid game, or if they suffer a letdown. Historically, Atlanta has not been good in this spot going 5-12-2 ATS the last 19 times when facing a foe with a winning percentage below .400. | |||||||
01-27-21 | Nets v. Hawks UNDER 239 | Top | 132-128 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is a big totals number. Perhaps, on the surface, it may be justified. But a lot has to go right for the Over to cash. I believe the marketplace, whose early money has been on the Over, is wrong to bet this one up. James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving are learning to play together. Harden and Irving are still rounding into shape. There were just 183 points scored in the Nets' last game, a 98-85 win against the Heat two days ago. The Heat did have numerous people out, including Jimmy Butler. Still, holding any NBA team to 85 points is impressive. There were 207 points produced in the Hawks' last game, a 108-99 Atlanta victory against the Clippers last night. LA was minus Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. The Hawks, though, have been in excellent defensive form recently thanks to big men Clint Capela and John Collins. If you discount a 129-115 loss to the Bucks, the Hawks have held their last four opponents to an average of 100 points. Atlanta ranks No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage - so Harden could be in for a rough shooting night - and has the third-best defensive field goal percentage in the league. | |||||||
01-26-21 | Wizards v. Rockets -3.5 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
The Rockets are far from elite since they no longer have James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul. They may not even make the playoffs. But they still are a couple of levels higher than the Wizards especially given Washington's COVID-19 troubles. This is just the rusty Wizards' second game since Jan. 11 because of COVID issues. They were blown out by the Spurs, 121-101, two days ago in their last game. The 3-9 Wizards could be down four rotation players. They have new faces and haven't had nearly the needed practice time. This is a big motivation game for John Wall against his former team. He's not going to let the Rockets get lazy in this matchup. DeMarcus Cousins is coming off a monster 28-point, 17-rebound game against the Mavericks in a 133-108 victory. That was on Saturday. So the Rockets should be rested and prepared. It's an added bonus if Christian Wood is able to play for Houston. He's questionable with an ankle injury. | |||||||
01-25-21 | Lakers v. Cavs +10.5 | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
The Lakers haven't let their championship get to their heads. They are 13-4, tied with the Clippers for the best record in the NBA. LA has yet to lose on the road in nine away games. But this is the right spot to step in against the Lakers with the improved Cavaliers. LA is in the third game of a seven-game road swing. The Lakers beat the Bucks, 113-106, this past Thursday and followed that up with a 101-90 victory against the Bulls this past Saturday. Up next for the Lakers is a major challenge on Wednesday - the 76ers. They have the best record in the Eastern Conference at 12-5. So the Lakers are in-between a letdown spot and a look-ahead spot - all while laying double-digits. The Cavaliers suffered their own letdown on Sunday getting blasted, 141-103, by the Celtics in Boston. Cleveland entered that matchup having won three in a row, including consecutive victories against James Harden, Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and the rest of the Nets. Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff pulled his starters early in the Boston debacle. None of the Cavaliers' key players - Andre Drummond, Collin Sexton, Larry Nance Jr. and Cedi Osman - logged more than 18 minutes in the Celtics loss. They should be highly motivated for this matchup, especially welcoming LeBron James back to Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 5-2 SU and ATS as home 'dogs this season. They are 8-8 on the season, yet hold little respect in the marketplace. They've upset the Nets twice and the 76ers. They can hang at home against the Lakers. | |||||||
01-24-21 | Cavs v. Celtics -5.5 | 103-141 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Nice job so far by J.B. Bickerstaff making the Cavaliers competitive this season. I will really tip my hat to Bickerstaff, though, if his Cavaliers can hang close in this matchup. Cleveland is riding high with a season-best three-game win streak with the last two victories coming against the Nets. Boston, on the other hand, is in circle-the-wagons mode with a season-worst three-game losing streak. This losing streak has coincided with the absence of Jayson Tatum due to COVID-19. There's a chance Boston gets Tatum back for this game. But if that doesn't happen, I still like the Celtics to cover this spread. Zero chance Boston takes Cleveland for granted even though it has won the past eight meetings while going 6-2 ATS the past eight times hosting the Cavaliers. There's a great deal of urgency for the Celtics not only to halt their losing skid, but also knowing they play seven of their next eight games on the road, including five games on the West Coast. | |||||||
01-23-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +7 | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Impressive. That's the word coming to mind in reviewing how the 76ers beat the Celtics this past Wednesday and Friday. Both of those 76ers' victories came in Philadelphia. Now the 76ers travel to Detroit to face the Pistons in an obvious letdown spot. Philadelphia is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The 76ers were 12-26 SU on the road last season. They are 2-4 SU and ATS away from home this season with road losses to the Grizzlies and Hawks in their past two away games. The Pistons are hungry for a victory after blowing a 17-point lead against the Hawks this past Wednesday in an overtime loss and then falling by one point, 103-102, to the Rockets this past Friday. Detroit is capable of pulling the straight-up upset having already defeated the Heat, Celtics and much-improved Suns this season. This is the 76ers' third game in four days. So they might choose to rest, or limit, the minutes of superstar center Joel Embiid. Philadelphia is 15-34-2 (31 percent) in its last 51 away contests. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Thunder +13.5 v. Clippers | 106-120 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
The Clippers are on a great roll winning five in a row with the last three coming in blowout fashion - victories by at least 19 points. It's difficult for the Clippers to keep doing that especially when teams seem to take rest stops in pacing themselves for the long season and playoffs. Oklahoma City is at its best in this role as a road 'dog. The Thunder are 22-8 the past 30 times taking points on the road. This includes a 5-2 ATS mark in that role this season with straight-up victories versus the Nets, Magic, Knicks and Pelicans. The Thunder are off a terrible performance in a 119-101 road loss to Denver, however. That was on Tuesday. So they've had two full days to prepare for this one and get their respect back. The Thunder should have plenty of energy since this is only their third game in eight days. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the Thunder's best player. He'll have added motivation going against the Clippers, his former team. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Heat v. Raptors -2.5 | 81-101 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm going to play the Zig/Zag theory here after the Heat snapped Toronto's three-game winning streak with a 111-102 win two days ago. Miami has yet to string two straight covers together this season. They are 0-6 ATS following a point spread cover. The Raptors have short revenge and they face two games on the road against the Pacers after this one. The Heat remain short-handed minus Jimmy Butler, defensive ace Avery Bradley and reserve big man Meyers Leonard. They also could be without Tyler Herro, who has been bothered by a neck injury. | |||||||
01-22-21 | Celtics +5 v. 76ers | 110-122 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
I like the Celtics in this spot even if Jayson Tatum remains out due to COVID-19 protocols. It's a nice bonus if he's able to play. This is a monster rivalry. So my inclination is to grab the points. That's especially so in the case of the Celtics, who are 22-7 ATS the past 29 times as underdogs. Boston is this big of a 'dog because the 76ers are home and just defeated the Celtics, 117-109, this past Wednesday. The 76ers made 36 of 45 free throws in that game. Boston was 13 of 20 from the foul line. The Celtics were not happy with that free throw disparity. Joel Embiid shot more free throws than Boston did as a team. Embiid had a monster performance with 42 points and 10 rebounds. He's a great player. But the Celtics have the center depth and astute coaching of Brad Stevens to make adjustments. One bright spot for Boston in the loss to the 76ers was Kemba Walker looking good in his second game back from a knee injury. He scored 19 points and had good leg movement. | |||||||
01-20-21 | Kings v. Clippers OVER 231.5 | Top | 96-115 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
The Kings were a below average defensive team last season, but they weren't a defensive disaster. Sacramento coach Luke Walton decided to make some defensive adjustments this season. The result is the Kings rank last defensively. They have allowed 122 or more points in each of their last eight games. Sacramento is a top-nine scoring team. That combination of good offense/horrendous defense makes the Kings a dead-nuts Over team as long as Walton stays their coach and the oddsmaker is slow to fully adjust. The Over has won in nine of the Kings' last 11 games. There's no reason to go against that pertinent trend in this matchup. The Clippers are averaging 132.3 points in their last three games. That's their best scoring stretch of the season. The teams just met this past Friday and the Clippers won, 138-100, for a total of 238 points. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Michael Alexander | $1,370 |
Mike Williams | $1,094 |
ProSportsPicks | $1,066 |
Hunter Price | $1,060 |
Bobby Wing | $1,040 |
Jack Jones | $960 |
Big Al McMordie | $876 |
Matt Sullivan | $750 |
Ross Benjamin | $740 |
Ray Monohan | $702 |