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The Chiefs had trouble covering point spreads when they were good. Now they are an untrustworthy 6-6 with half of those victories occurring against the Giants, Raiders and Commanders.

Houston is peaking with four straight victories. Three of those wins were against the Colts on the road, Bills and Jaguars. C.J. Stroud has knocked the rust off and is fortified with the deepest set of wide receivers he's had.

Just because the Chiefs need to win this game doesn't mean they will. Even if they do, it's asking a lot for them to cover more than a field goal given their offensive line injuries and going against Houston's top-ranked defense. The Texans are first in fewest points allowed, fewest yards and are tied for seventh in most sacks.

Patrick Mahomes is capable of pulling off magic. He has a lot working against him, though, besides Houston's elite defense. The Chiefs have a ground attack that scares no one and three starting offensive linemen are out. 

Before crowning the Seahawks Super Bowl champions after a shutout of a Max Brosmer-led Minnesota team last week, consider this about Atlanta.

The Falcons are an unlucky 4-8. They have lost by an average of 3.2 points in five of their defeats. Two of their losses - to the Panthers and Colts - came in overtime. Atlanta's latest defeat was last Sunday on the road by three points when the Jets' Nick Folk made a 56-yard field goal as time expired.

If even two of those five defeats were turned around, the Falcons would be a far more respectable 6-6.

Seattle enters this match-up fat and happy and perhaps overconfident. It is not an ideal spot for Seattle. The Seahawks are making the long journey across three time zones and this is an early start. They also are not a dome team.

The Falcons can afford to play loose now. All the pressure is on the Seahawks.

Kirk Cousins is well past his prime. But he still is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league and has the luxury of having superstar Bijan Robinson to do the heavy lifting.

New England is 10-2 and has won nine in a row, which is the longest active win streak in the NFL. The Giants are 2-10 and already eliminated from playoff contention.

Yet the gap between these teams is not as gargantuan as their records indicate.

Multiple key New England injuries, the return of Jaxson Dart from a concussion and the Patriots' unfamiliar position of having all the pressure on them while hosting their first Monday Night Football matchup in five years  make this matchup far more even than perceived.

The Patriots' injuries are not that well-known outside of New England because they are not to skill position players. But these injuries are very important. The Patriots will be breaking in two new offensive line starters on the left side with tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson out. Campbell probably is New England's best offensive lineman. They were both injured in New England's, 26-20, road victory against the Bengals last week.

The Pats didn't have good offensive line depth before the injuries. New England also has had trouble running the ball ranking 19th in rushing. The Patriots have heavily relied upon the arm and legs of Drake Maye. The Giants' defensive strength is their pass rush.

New England's defensive line also has been impacted by injuries. Standout tackle Milton Williams is out. Another key run-stuffer, Khyiris Tonga, is questionable as is linebacker Harold Landry, whose play has regressed because he's been playing hurt.

Another below-the-surface injury for the Patriots is special-teams ace Brenden Schooler, who is out  with an ankle injury.

Dart has provided the Giants with a spark. He is back from a concussion. Dart has accounted for 17 touchdowns in his seven starts with the Giants, who average slightly more than 24 points a game when he is under center.

The Giants played each of the three top teams in the NFC North tough during the last three weeks. They held fourth-quarter leads in each game before losing in overtime at Detroit, by seven points to the Packers and by four points to the Bears on the road.

The jury is out on interim coach Mike Kafka and his new elevated defensive coordinator, Charlie Bullen. But the early returns appear promising with the Giants seeming to play with more passion and better morale than they did under Brian Daboll.

I get that the Broncos are 9-2 while Washington is 3-8 and has lost six in a row. I find the Bears and the Broncos, though, to be the two luckiest teams in the NFL so far.

Denver has won just twice by more than one score and one came back in September against the Bengals who were starting the miserable Jake Browning then. The Broncos have five wins by a combined 16 points. That's an average victory margin of 3.2 points and it shows Denver often plays to the level of its competition.

This is a rare nationally televised game for Washington. Jobs are on the line for the Commanders.

Denver has the far superior defense. However, Marcus Mariota could be a starter for a few NFL teams and he gets back his top wide receiver, Terry McLaurin.

The Broncos' ground attack took a huge hit losing JK Dobbins. I am not a huge Bo Nix fan finding him to be barely more than a glorified game manager.

Note, too, that the Broncos are 1-4 ATS when laying more than six points this season. 

Myles Garrett of the Browns is the most disruptive pass rusher in football. My vote for No. 2 would go to the Raiders' Maxx Crosby. He should cause a lot of havoc for a reshuffled Chargers offensive line that is expected to go with its eighth different starting rotation against the Raiders. Instead of stars the Chargers are down to journeymen starting offensive linemen.

Justin Herbert is an elite quarterback, but he had little chance in the Chargers' last game because of a bad offensive line. That was a horrendous 29-point road loss to the Jaguars. It was the Chargers' worst performance of the season,

Certainly I expect the Chargers to play much better at home coming out of their bye week. But they have very little home advantage, a mediocre roster and below average pass rush. The Raiders are a desperate foe that just fired their offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly.

Las Vegas has severe offensive line woes, too. Embattled quarterback Geno Smith has looked terrible because of that. But now the Raiders have a new offensive coordinator in veteran Greg Olson, a healthy superstar tight end in Brock Bowers and the best running back on the field, Ashton Jeanty.

Factor in this being a division game and the Chargers are just too high of a favorite here.

There are some bad defenses in the NFL. Then there are the Cincinnati Bengals. They are in a league of their own when it comes to horrendous tackling and giving up points and yards. The Bengals are second-to-last in run defense and facing Derrick Henry.

And run defense is the Bengals' best defensive category! Cincinnati gives up the most points, yards, yards per play, passing yards and passing touchdowns in the league. It is why they are 1-8 in their last nine games.

This is a get-right spot for Lamar Jackson if ever there was one.

It is a pipe dream to think Joe Burrow, who has a history of starting slow, is magically going to keep the Bengals within a touchdown of Baltimore after being out for two and a half months with a toe injury. Not having No. 2 wideout Tee Higgins certainly doesn't help the Bengals' cause.

The Ravens have all the momentum winning five in a row to go from 1-5 to 6-5. Baltimore's defense has stepped up holding each of its last six opponents below 20 points. The Ravens' average winning margin during their five-game winning streak is 12.8 points a game.

It takes an elite coach and quarterback to go into Detroit and beat the Lions. The Packers don't have that.

Partially held back by Matt Lafleur's conservative reliance on a ground game spearheaded by mediocre Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love is averaging just 163 passing yards on a measly 6.0 yards per attempt during his last three games. That's not going to win a high-scoring matchup against the Lions indoors.

Detroit also is getting healthier now on defense with the expected return of their top two cornerbacks, Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed.

Green Bay, on the other hand, is dealing with several key injuries on defense. No. 1 CB Keisean Nixon (neck), DT Karl Brooks (ankle), and linebacker ILB Quay Walker (neck) are doubtful along with situational pass rusher Lukas Van Ness.

The point spread is cheap to back  the Lions in a revenge spot from opening week when the Packers embarrassed them by two touchdowns. 

We are getting a bargain with the Eagles based on the optics of last week with the Eagles struggling to get past the Lions on Sunday night, while the Cowboys looking great on Monday night rolling the Raiders.

Philadelphia rarely has looked good this season. But that doesn't keep the Eagles from winning. They are 8-2. Just imagine how good the Eagles would be if they were to play a decent game, which I anticipate here.

The Cowboys improved their defense at the trade deadline. It is still below par, though. There remains a huge class difference between these two teams. Dallas' four victories have been achieved against the Giants, Jets Commanders and Raiders. The combined record of those teams is 9-33.

The Eagles have defeated the Cowboys seven consecutive times, all by more than a field goal.

If the Jets are going to have any chance against the Ravens, they are going to need to come up with takeaways. That hasn't happened for them all year. The Jets have just one takeaway all season, the fewest through 10 games in the Super Bowl era. New York still doesn't have an interception either.

The Ravens have won four straight games, including the past three with Lamar Jackson back at quarterback after he missed time earlier this season with a hamstring injury. Jackson is in line for his best game of the season facing a Jets defense that traded their two best defenders, cornerback Sauce Gardner and lineman Quinnen Williams.

The Jets made a quarterback switch away from Justin Fields. At least Fields gave the Jets a running dimension. The Jets don't have that anymore with 36-year-old Tyrod Taylor behind center. Taylor doesn't have any quality wide receiving targets with Garrett Wilson out and he's not much more accurate than Fields.

I don't see the Jets being able to stay within two touchdowns. 

No need to overthink this one. Dallas is the superior team and the Raiders have very little home field advantage.

The Raiders' offensive line is broken and so is their beat up quarterback, Geno Smith. Minus injured left tackle Kolton Miller and right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson and Las Vegas has the worst offensive line in the league. It is a big reason why the Raiders entered this week scoring the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 15.4.

The Cowboys' defense has been bad so far, but it was greatly upgraded during their bye last week. Dallas added Quinnen Williams, one of the best run stuffers in the NFL, from the Jets and linebacker Logan Wilson, who may have been the Bengals' second-best defensive player until falling out of favor with Cincinnati management. The Cowboys are further reinforced with the return of DeMarvion Overshown from injury.

The Raiders are surrendering more than 24 points per game. They're not going to be able to keep up with the Cowboys' top-five offense.

I'm also expecting the Cowboys to play an emotional, intense game following the death of one of their players, Marshawn Kneeland.

Any guess on what quarterback has the highest passer rating against the Cardinals in at least three starts? It's Brock Purdy and he is back starting after missing six games with a toe injury.

That's a huge boost for the 49ers. San Francisco couldn't compete with the high-powered Rams last week. But the 49ers have not lost two in a row all season and are a level above the Cardinals.

Much is made of the 49ers' multiple defensive injuries, including those to star pass rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner. Yet the Cardinals also have key injuries - on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they will be without their best linebacker, Mack Wilson, and also could be missing cornerback Will Johnson.

Journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett needs weapons around him. But all he has aside from Star tight end Trey McBride are a bunch of scrub running backs and Michael Wilson as his No. 1 with wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. out after having surgery for his appendicitis.

Ricky Pearsall is back for San Francisco giving the 49ers three wide receivers all better than Wilson with Jauan Jennings and Kenrick Bourne. George Kittle is in McBride's elite tight end class superstar RB Christian McCaffrey is the fourth player in NFL history with at least 600 yards rushing and 600 yards receiving in his team’s first 10 games in a season.

This is a buy-low spot on the 49ers against a bad Cardinals team.

We are getting a nice discount on the Vikings because the record shows Chicago to be 6-3 and Minnesota 4-5.

The Vikings, though, are better than their record while the Bears are much worse than their record.

Chicago is off improbable back-to-back comeback victories against the Giants and Bengals. The Bears also own a pair of one-point victories against the Commanders and Raiders. The combined record of those two teams is 5-14.

The Bears have been outscored on the season.

I don't like slow-processing Caleb Williams in this tough road venue facing Brian Flores' blitz-happy Vikings. I'm not a huge fan of J.J. McCarthy, but I do believe he will play better and have an easier time than he did last week against the Ravens' savvy defense.

I give the Vikings' offensive line a huge check mark against the Bears defensive line.

Look for the Vikings to dominate the trenches and win this game with room to spare. 

I hold Aaron Rodgers and Mike Tomlin in high regard. But the fact is this: Rogers isn't a playmaker anymore and Tomlin doesn't have the good defense he's had in the past.

The Chargers hold three key edges here - quarterback with Justin Herbert, wide receivers and defense,

Herbert should be in MVP discussions. He ranks second in passing yards and touchdown throws and has four excellent receiving targets. He's going against a Pittsburgh secondary that ranks last in past defense.  This is a good time to sell high on the Steelers off their 27-20 upset win against the Colts last week. Pittsburgh won that game by one score despite being plus-5 in turnover ratio.

Rogers completed one pass of more than 10 yards through the air last week. He had 5.6 yards per attempt. The Colts play mostly zone coverage. So do the Chargers.

I don't see Rogers keeping up with Herbert, especially going against a Chargers defense that ranks third in pass defense.

The line is short because the Chargers are down a couple of offensive linemen. Herbert has excellent escape mobility and has successfully dealt with the situation before.

The price is cheap to back the Chargers.

Since opening week, no NFC team has been playing better than Seattle. The Seahawks have won and covered six of their last seven games. They are strong on both sides of the ball.

The spot is good for Seattle to win and cover again, catching the Cardinals traveling on a short week after upsetting the Cowboys on the road this past Monday night.

The Seahawks have beaten the Cardinals eight consecutive times.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been the best wide receiver in the NFL. The Cardinals are dealing with multiple injuries in their secondary. The Seahawks just added deep threat Rashid Shaheed via a trade with the Saints.

The Cardinals have looked better with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback than with Kyler Murray. Brissett, though, is a 33-year-old journeyman with limitations. Brissett is facing a Seattle defense that has held opponents to the NFL’s fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt and fifth-lowest passer rating, while ranking third in sacks (27). I'd much rather have Seattle's defense at home going for me than Brissett.  

Never thought I would be saying this season, but the Patriots are actually in a letdown spot having won six in a row.

Drake Maye has emerged as a star. But the Patriots have played an extremely easy schedule. New England's last four victories have come against the Falcons, Browns, Titans and Saints. The combined record of those four teams is 7-27. The Bills are the only good opponent the Patriots have faced.

Maye has been carrying an offense with a below average rushing attack. The Buccaneers rank 7th against the run. Tampa Bay has had two weeks to prepare for Maye having been idle last week.

I don't see  Maye being able to successfully trade points against Baker Mayfield. 

Dallas is averaging 30.8 points per game, second-best in the NFL. The Cowboys have arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the league with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. They have the best kicker in the league by far with Brandon Aubrey and their pass rush is still solid even without Micah Parsons.

But somehow the Cowboys are only a field goal favorite at home against the Cardinals, who have lost five in a row. That's what misplaced love for Jacoby Brissett can cause.

The record needs to be set straight. The Cardinals are not as good, I repeat not as good, with Brissett at quarterback instead of injured Kyler Murray.

Brissett is a journeyman, pocket passer who wasn't good enough to start for the Patriots, Colts, Dolphins, Commanders and now Arizona. The Cardinals are below average in all major offensive categories. They also are 1-17 in their last 18 games without Murray!

Arizona's defense ranks among the bottom-12 in yards allowed. passing yards and takeaways. Cardinals cornerbacks Will Johnson and Max Melton are not going to get the better of Lamb and Pickens.

No Murray, no Cardinals cover.

You won't find a better buy-low spot on the Falcons than right here. Atlanta is off a 24-point home loss to the Dolphins, who just looked terrible against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. New England has won five in a row.

I find the Falcons to be the superior team, though. The only above average team the Patriots have beaten during their win streak was Buffalo. Their other victories came against the Browns, Titans, Saints and Panthers. Those four teams have a combined record of 8-24.

Atlanta also has defeated Buffalo. The Falcons have victories against the Commanders and  Vikings on the road, too. They were without Michael Penix and Drake London in their loss to the Dolphins and strangely only gave Bijan Robinson nine carries and three passing targets. Now  Penix and London are healthy and even an idiot like Raheem Morris can figure out that Robinson needs to be more heavily involved since he could be the best all-purpose back in the NFL.

The Falcons have won straight-up the past two times they've been underdogs.

Drake Maye has been carrying a pedestrian Patriots offense. Atlanta is much improved defensively and New England will be without its best running back, Rhamondre Stevenson.

The Patriots already have lost to the Steelers and Raiders at home this season. They are 4-13 in their last 17 home games.

Usually it is a disadvantage for the road team to play on Thursday night. Lamar Jackson makes this game an exception. Jackson is itching to play after missing the last three games.

The Ravens are in the argument for having the best offense when Jackson is under center. Miami's defense is no match. The Dolphins give up 26.9 points a game, which ranks 27th, and embarrassingly only have one takeaway.

The last time these teams met was on Dec. 31, 2023 at Baltimore. The Ravens won, 56-19. Jackson threw five touchdown passes in only 21 attempts. The Dolphins' defense was actually better back then than it is now.

The Ravens have gotten healthy on defense, too. Having Jackson back is going to give them a huge spark.

Look for a Baltimore blowout. 

The oddsmaker doesn't argue that Green Bay is the superior team making the Packers a road favorite. But can the Packers be trusted?

Not against elite opponents. But the Packers usually take care of business against mediocre foes. The standings show Pittsburgh to be 4-2. I don't see the Steelers being as good as that record. Their victories came against the 0-7 Jets, a Vikings team led by Carson Wentz and a Browns team led by Dillon Gabriel. Pittsburgh's other win occurred by one-score against a Patriots team that turned the ball over five times.

Green Bay's two key players, Jordan Love and Micah Parsons, are in their prime. Pittsburgh's two key players, Aaron Rodgers and T.J. Watt, are past their prime. Rodgers does not have the explosive playmakers around him that Love does.

The Steelers need to establish a ground attack to keep Parsons and Green Bay's fierce pass rush off Rodgers. The Packers, though, rank second in run defense.

The Packers like to think they are an elite team. They haven't shown that in their last four games. This is their chance to prove it in front of a national TV audience. 

Improved, yes. The Panthers are that. But improved enough to upset the Bills when Buffalo is off its bye? No way.

Carolina opened 1-3. Since then, the Panthers have ripped off three straight victories. Those wins have come against the Jets, Cowboys and Dolphins. The combined record of those three teams is 4-16-1.

No team is better following its bye week in NFL history than Buffalo under Sean McDermott, a perfect 8-0.

The biggest mismatch is at quarterback between Josh Allen, a top-three quarterback, and backup Andy Dalton, who turns 38 in a couple of days.

Carolina has a quarterback pressure rate of 26.3 percent, which ranks 31st in the league. Allen should feast.

Dalton, at his best, is a quarterback who does enough to keep his team in the game before blowing it with a stupid mistake. At his worst, Dalton is a washed-up turnover machine. 

No team needed a bye more than the 1-5 Ravens. The Ravens have a tremendous sense of urgency here knowing they can't afford a slip-up to a mediocre team like the Bears.

The Bears don't have the Ravens' motivation. They are fat and happy with four straight victories. Those wins came against the Saints, Raiders, Commanders and Cowboys. None of those four teams have a winning record. Chicago edged Washington and Las Vegas by one point each.  

Baltimore has terrible defensive numbers. Injuries have played a large part in that. though. Now the Ravens have some of their best defensive players back healthy including linebacker Roquan Smith.

Even without Jackson, the Ravens have multiple weapons and they get back two of their key blockers, left tackle Ronnie Stanley and fullback Patrick Ricard.

Flush with confidence and Jaxson Dart mania after upsetting the Eagles, the Giants headed to Denver last week.  There the cocky Giants built a 19-0 lead through three quarters before collapsing in a 33-32 loss, becoming the first NFL team in more than two decades to blow a lead of 18 points or more in the final six minutes and lose.

I don't think the Giants have recovered. Their brashness is gone.

Now the Giants have to travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles, who are in rapid revenge for a 34-17 loss suffered to the Giants two weeks ago. Ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio now has a first-hand look at Dart and the Eagles will have two of their key trench players, defensive lineman Jalen Carter and guard Landon Dickerson, back. Both were out in the earlier meeting against the Giants.

The Eagles have beaten the Giants 12 consecutive times at home.

No AJ Brown for the Eagles, but that is off-set with the Giants down two of their starting defensive backfield starters as safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Paulson Adebo are out.

Jalen Hurts has the two best weapons on his side - Saquon Barkley and DeVonta Smith. Philadelphia's kicking game also is far more reliable than the Giants.

The Chargers have two huge edges against the Vikings that should prove the difference. Minnesota is at a severe disadvantage traveling on a short week. Los Angeles also has the far superior quarterback in Justin Herbert against Carson Wentz.

The last time Herbert went against the Vikings and their blitz crazy defensive coordinator Brian Flores was two seasons ago at Minneapolis. Herbert completed 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards and three touchdowns as the Chargers won, 28-24.

Not only does Herbert have the receiving weapons with Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and emerging tight end Oronde Gadsden II, but he has underrated athleticism and mobility running for 180 yards on 30 carries. The Vikings just allowed Jalen Hurts to have his best game of the season in a 28-22 home loss this past Sunday.

Wentz is a turnover-prone journeyman with a penchant for making boneheaded plays. The Chargers defense did not play well against high-powered Indianapolis last week, but they will get back pass rusher Khalil Mack. Minnesota has a banged-up offensive line so Mack could be effective. Los Angeles also is expected to have back offensive left tackle Joe Alt.

The Vikings have lost the turnover battle in each of their last three games, all with Wentz under center. Wentz has thrown four interceptions during this span to go with three touchdown passes.

I don't see the Vikings overcoming the quarterback difference and tough scheduling spot.

This isn't just an ordinary Monday night game for the Bears. This is their revenge game of the season.

The Commanders ruined the Bears' season last year when Jayden Daniels connected on a 52-yard, final-play Hail Mary touchdown pass to give Washington an improbable 18-15 victory. The Bears were 4-2 before that game. They then went on to lose nine in a row following that disastrous loss.

Chicago is much better coached this season. The Bears'  offensive line has improved. Caleb Williams also has looked better.

The Bears have their confidence up after consecutive victories against the Cowboys and Raiders. Chicago is rested, too, having been idle last week. The time off has allowed CB Kyler Gordon and TE Colston Loveland to get healthy. The Commanders give up the eighth-most yards per game.

Washington's strength is Daniels and a solid ground attack that will try to exploit the Bears' weak run defense. However, Daniels could be without his two best wide receiving weapons as Terry McLaurin is sidelined for a third game in a row because of a quadriceps injury and Deebo Samuel is questionable because of a bruised heel.

The perception is the Seahawks are tough at home. The truth is, for whatever reason, is that the Seahawks have been great on the road. Seattle is 11-1 in its last 12 away games with the only loss coming to the Lions. Seattle is 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this season with victories against the Cardinals and Steelers.

Jacksonville is in a dangerous situational spot following Monday night’s emotional comeback win against Kansas City.

Trevor Lawrence gets a lot of publicity, but Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold has outplayed him this season. 

Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo are a couple of fun to watch rookies. Truth be told, though, neither is very good. Dart is inexperienced and inaccurate. Skattebo is a straight ahead runner without any moves. Malik Nabers was the Giants' only star skill position player and he's out.

Both the Giants' offensive line and skill position players are well below average. It's not a surprise the Giants rank last in the NFL with a 31.6-percent red-zone TD conversion rate.

So don't overthink this game just because the Eagles blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead against the Broncos last week. Philadelphia had won 10 in a row prior to that game. The Eagles are 20-2 in their last 22 games.

They have dominated the Giants, defeating them seven of the past eight times. The lone New York victory during this span occurred when Philly rested some starters in Week 18 of 2023.

There is a huge class difference here. I consider the Eagles to be the best team in the NFC and the Giants to be among the bottom-three in the NFC with the Panthers and Saints, who they lost to last week. 

Were you impressed with the Jaguars' upset road win against the 49ers this past Sunday?

I wasn't. The 49ers were flat, Brock Purdy was rusty and San Francisco's defense was down minus Nick Bosa. The Jaguars were plus four in turnover ratio and outgained by 64 yards, yet still only won by five points.

The Jaguars like to think they are good at 3-1 under new coach Liam Coen, but I don't see it. What I see is Trevor Lawrence still locking way too long on his first target. Coen criminally underutilizing Travis Hunter and Jacksonville leading the NFL with 13 takeaways.

The Jaguars have generated at least three takeaways in all four games this season. They are an NFL-best plus nine in turnover ratio. That is a lot of good fortune. 

Jacksonville's world is about to collide with an emerging Kansas City. It is not a good time to be playing the Chiefs. Sparked by the return of Xavier Worthy, which has re-energized Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are riding new found momentum on offense to go with a strong defense.

It doesn't help Jacksonville that defensive lineman Travon Walker (wrist) and safety Eric Murray (neck) were both injured against the 49ers.

Who are you going to trust here, Mahomes or Lawrence?

The answer is obvious to me.

The Seahawks are not getting enough attention. They are a very good team right now. Seattle has won three in a row and has been looking good on both sides of the ball.

The Seahawks entered this week with the second best point differential. They ranked second on defense with 16.8 points allowed per game and sixth on offense at 27.8 points scored per game.

Sam Donald is proving that last year was not a fluke. He is orchestrating a well-rounded offense. Defensively, Seattle is giving up the third-lowest yards per play and have produced 12 sacks and seven interceptions.

Tampa Bay is lucky to be 3-1. The Buccaneers got back left tackle Tristan Wirfs and wide receiver Chris Godwin last week, but their injury list is far longer than Seattle's and much more grim. Tampa Bay has multiple injuries on both of its lines, is minus Mike Evans and likely won't have their top running back, Bucky Irving.

I see the home Seahawks controlling both lines of scrimmage while their offense is explosive enough to win this game by more than a touchdown. 

The Bengals are extremely fortunate to be 2-1 instead of 0-3. But in their first game without Joe Burrow this season they were buried, 48-10, by the Vikings on the road last week.

Burrow was propping up a bad defense, terrible offensive line and a not very good lead running back.

Now with Burrow out, I don't see the Bengals competitive on the road against good teams such as the Broncos.

The Bengals are kidding themselves if they think Jake Browning, a dink-and-dunker, can keep them in games. The Broncos have held opponents to an average of 14.5 points at home during the Sean Payton era.

Denver holds a major coaching edge, has a strong advantage in both trenches and owns home motivation for a rare prime time game.

Cincinnati has yet to face a mobile quarterback. Now the Bengals get Bo Nix, who is in a get-right spot against this bad of a defense.

After sleepwalking their way to an embarrassing, 13-10, loss to the Browns last week, the Packers are on the national stage meeting the Cowboys in Dallas for the Sunday night game.

The Packers have much to prove offensively.

I expect the Packers to redeem themselves given such a low bar. Dallas is giving up 30.6 points a game. In their last two games, the Cowboys have surrendered 31 points to the Bears and 37 points to the Giants and Russell Wilson.

Jordan Love should enjoy similar success.

Micah Parsons, in his hyped return to Dallas, spearheads a much improved Packers defense that finally has a dominant pass rush.

Dak Prescott isn't going to be able to trade points with the Packers, especially without superstar wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. 

I'm buying low on the Falcons here.

The Falcons are at low ebb returning home following an embarrassing, 30-0, road loss to the Panthers.

Atlanta very well could be 2-1 instead of 1-2. The Falcons had much better statistics against the Buccaneers, but lost by three points opening week. They then impressively beat the Vikings on the road exposing J.J. McCarthy for the fraud he is before laying an egg against the Panthers.

This is the mother of get-right spots for the Falcons. They have the weapons around Michael Penix to do it with Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Darnell Mooney and what looks to be a rejuvenated Kyle Pitts.

Washington's defense is not impressive. The Commanders yielded 144 receiving yards to Tucker Kraft two weeks ago and 145 receiving yards and three touchdowns to Tre Tucker last week. These are not high impact players yet the Commanders made them look like stars.

Now Washington faces real stars in Robinson and London while being without their two biggest offensive stars, Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin.

Less than two years ago these teams met in Baltimore and the Ravens crushed the Lions, 38-6.

Since then the Lions have gotten worse and the Ravens have gotten better to the point where Baltimore has the best offense in the NFL.

So, why should anything be different this time around?

It shouldn't. The pattern remains the same. The Ravens' well-balanced, high-powered attack is going to produce plenty of points led by Lamar Jackson, who seems to play his best on Monday Night Football accounting for 25 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Jackson has a 24-2 career record versus NFC teams, too.

Jared Goff plays much worse in outdoor road settings such as this one.

The Ravens are still carrying a chip on their shoulder after blowing a nationally televised Week 1 game to the Bills. They won't be taking their foot off the pedal here.

I'm going to buy low on the 0-2 Chiefs and they can't get any lower than this being less than a touchdown favorite against the Giants.

Aside from good pass rushers and the magnificent Malik Nabors, the Giants are nothing. They can't run nor stop the run. Russell Wilson is well past his prime and ready to lose his starting position in the very near future. Brian Daboll has been a failure as New York's head coach. The stage always has been too big for the Giants under Daboll and it will be here, too.

Going back to last year's Super Bowl, the Chiefs have lost three in a row. Patrick Mahomes has never lost four consecutive games as a starting quarterback at either Texas Tech or with the Chiefs,

True, Mahomes is missing some wide receiving weapons. It is also true that Mahomes elevates everyone around him. The Chiefs have the better offensive line and the superior defense. They have ranked in the top-five in fewest points allowed each of the previous two seasons. They just held the Eagles below 21 points and under 300 total yards of offense last week.

There's plenty of talk of a Giants upset here. I find that talk foolish. 

Before we anoint the Packers Super Bowl champions, let's see how they do in their first road game. Green Bay is traveling to Cleveland to take on an 0-2 desperate Browns team.

First off, Cleveland should be 1-1. The Browns lost to the Bengals opening week despite out-gaining Cincinnati, 327-141, and having double the first downs. The Browns kept Joe Burrow in check the entire game. The only reason the Browns lost was because their kicker let them down.

Then last week the Browns were destroyed by the Ravens, whose offense could be the best in the NFL.

Green Bay is without its most consistent wide receiver, Jayden Reed, and likely to be without right offensive tackle Zach Tom.

As good as Micah Parsons is, he's not the best pass rusher in the NFL. Myles Garrett is and the Packers are going to have problems with him. Cleveland also has the best run defense in the NFL. The Browns allow just 2.1 yards per carry. The Packers heavily rely on running back Josh Jacobs, who is not elusive.

Joe Flacco is the Browns' best choice at quarterback. He makes up for his age and lack of mobility with veteran savvy. Look for Flacco to offset Green Bay's emerging pass rush by using a quick passing game utilizing tight ends David Njoku and good-looking rookie Harold Fannin Jr. along with Jerry Jeudy as an underneath-to-intermediate target.

I don't trust Matt LaFleur on the road. Green Bay had a losing away spread record last season. They only managed to win road games against the Bears by one point and Jaguars by three points.

Not only are the Packers fat and happy right now at 2-0, but they have a huge look-ahead game as they play at the Cowboys in the Sunday night game next week.

The winless Dolphins have serious problems. The schedule maker did Miami no favor as this is the worst possible spot and matchup for the Dolphins. Miami has to travel on a short week to face the Bills, who could be the best team in football right now.

The unbeaten Bills rank first in total offense. They are scoring 35.5 points per game. Miami has given up 33 points to each of its two opponents, the Patriots and Colts. Buffalo has a better offense than either of those two teams.

No longer can the Dolphins offense carry their weak defense. Injuries have wiped out the right side of Miami's offensive line. Given little protection, immobile Tua Tagovailoa has looked terrible. A quick fix is not going to occur in such a short time. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel looks and sounds like a beaten man. I actually feel sorry for the guy.

The only thing McDaniel is going to win is to be the first head coach fired in the NFL this season. That's a prop worth playing as I anticipate the Dolphins to be blown out here and for Miami management to fire McDaniel following the game.

Buffalo has beaten Miami in 13 of the last 14 games, including the past five. Those Dolphins teams were better than this current one.

The Dolphins can't count on turnovers either. The Bills have gone 24 straight games without losing the turnover battle. That's the longest streak in 75 years. 

I find this to be the classic Week 2 setup of one team, Atlanta, needing a victory against the 1-0 team, Minnesota. I like to go with the winless team in these spots.

Credit to J.J. McCarthy for coming up big in the 4th quarter to help the Vikings beat the Bears in Chicago this past Monday night. But I am not sold on McCarthy. I find him to be just a game manager rather than a dangerous downfield threat.

Atlanta's best wide receivers, Drake London and Darnell Mooney, are expected to play. The Vikings remain without their number two wideout, suspended Jordan Addison. I prefer Atlanta's firepower especially having the most dynamic player on the field in Bijan Robinson.

Even though the Vikings are home, the Falcons are used to playing indoors and they have had an extra day of rest in preparation. An outright upset would not surprise me in the least.

The Lions are not nearly as impotent as they looked on the road against the Packers this past Sunday. Jared Goff always plays better in a temperature controlled climate. 

The Bears are traveling on a short week and their much hyped second-year quarterback, Caleb Williams, continues to be less than overwhelming. 

I want Dan Campbell off a physical beatdown going for me at home against a Chicago team still very much trying to figure things out under a new head coach.

Once upon a time Joe Flacco was a franchise quarterback for the Ravens leading them to a Super Bowl victory. Now Flaco is 40 and well past his prime, He has no mobility, a bad offensive line and a non-existent ground game to take the pressure off. Cleveland also could have the worst kicker in the NFL.

Just as bad for the Browns is they catch the Ravens at a very inopportune time following Baltimore's meltdown against the Bills this past Sunday night.

I see this as an absolute kill spot for the Ravens so I am not adverse to laying a big number here. 

Some trends can be ignored. Not this one. The Colts are 0-10-1 SU in their last 11 openers. Miami, by the way, is 3-0 in season-openers under Mike McDaniel.

It's more than just this why I like the Dolphins. The Colts were 29th in the NFL in Total Defense last year. I don't see much improvement.

The Dolphins are laying in the weeds. Despite unwarranted preseason concerns, speedsters De'Von Achane and Tyreek Hill are fine.
 
 New Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is not going to win a shootout against Tua Tagovailoa, especially with the Colts down several respected offensive line starters from a year ago.

Miami has its two best pass rushers - Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips - healthy now, too. 

Certainly I give credit to Jaden Daniels. He's an electrifying player. I'm not nearly as sold on the Commanders as a team, though. I thought they were the luckiest team in the NFL last season. I see regression hitting Washington hard this season starting with this game.

Don't laugh. The Giants were right there with the Commanders in their two games last season, losing by three and five points.

I like New York's defense better than Washington's, especially the Giants' pass rush. The Giants have some of the best pass rushers in the NFL.

Daniels is a star. He doesn't have great weapons, however. Russell Wilson is on the downside of his career. Still, he's the best quarterback Brian Daboll has had during his four-year tenure as coach of the Giants.

I believe in taking points with the better team. So I'm going with the Eagles fully realizing how clutch and lucky the Chiefs are in close games.

I give the Eagles a check mark in every area except quarterback and coaching. The Eagles have a much superior running game with Saquon Barkley, are better in the trenches, have a higher-rated secondary and the two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

No team produced more than 23 points against the Eagles during the last 16 games except the Commanders.

Philadelphia ranked either first or second in scoring defense, pass defense and total defense. The Chiefs were below average in pass defense.

Patrick Mahomes doesn't have any superstar skill position players around him unless you include a declining Travis Kelce. Jalen Hurts has Barkley and Brown.

The Eagles don't need to blitz Mahomes because their defensive front is so good both against the run and pass. The Texans had a very good defensive front, too. The Chiefs only managed 212 yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play against the Texans in their playoff opener.

Philadelphia's offensive line was ranked the best in the NFL for the third straight season by Pro Football Focus. Barkley was close to setting the NFL single-season rushing record running behind that line.

Kansas City was an underdog during the past two Super Bowls. The last time the Chiefs were a Super Bowl favorite was against the Buccaneers in 2021. Tampa Bay beat the favored Chiefs, 31-9.

This time around the Chiefs are back to being the Super Bowl favorite. The oddsmaker had no choice, but to make Kansas City chalk. No way could they open Mahomes as a Super Bowl underdog.

That doesn't mean the Chiefs are the better team. They're not, which the Eagles will prove.

Super Bowl Props

Dallas Goedert Over his receiving yardage

Travis Kelce is going to get all the publicity and be heavily bet on the prop market. Dallas Goedert is the other tight end in this Super Bowl matchup.

It's going Over Goedert's receiving yardage, though, that offers value.

The Chiefs surrendered an NFL-high 1,191 yards to tight ends during the regular season. That's an average of 70 tight end receiving yards a game.

Kansas City didn't face too many exceptional tight ends. The last one the Chiefs went against was Brock Bowers eight games ago. Bowers caught 10 passes for 140 yards in that game against the Chiefs.

Goedert is an above average tight end. Jalen Hurts relies on him. Goedert tied A.J. Brown with 18 receiving targets in the Eagles' three playoff games. Goedert averaged 62.6 receiving yards in these three postseason games.

DeAndre Hopkins Over his receptions and receiving yardage: 

DeAndre Hopkins isn't the star wide receiver of past seasons. But he's not washed up either. He remains respectable and dangerous on slant patterns.

I'm sure Patrick Mahomes is not going to ignore him. The Eagles will be keying on Travis Kelce and concerned about Xavier Worthy's great speed. That leaves Hopkins, with his always dependable hands, an inviting target for Mahomes. 

It's rare, but sometimes you can find value on an NFL favorite. This game is an example.

Home field advantage for the Eagles should be worth more than a field goal in this instance given the Rams are traveling across three time zones on a short week to Philadelphia and that's after returning from Arizona to Los Angeles.

This isn't a Rams type of setting either being outdoors with 30-degree weather and possible rain.

I rate the Eagles as far better than the Rams, not just three points better on a neutral field, which is what the betting line seems to indicate.

Philadelphia had its bye in Week 5. Since then the Eagles have gone 13-1. That record most likely would be 14-0 because the one loss came to the Commanders after Jalen Hurts was injured early in the game. Philadelphia had a two-touchdown lead against Washington, but were punchless when backup stiff Kenny Pickett replaced Hurts.

The Eagles defense has become the best in the league ranking No. 2 in scoring defense and first in fewest yards and passing yards. The Rams are not only the lowest scoring team to make the playoffs, but also allowed the most yards of any of the postseason participants.

Hurts was getting the rust off in the Rams' 22-10 wild card win against the Packers this past Sunday. It was far from the Eagles' "A" game. Yet they never were threatened. The Rams lost to the Packers at home, 24-19, in Week 5.

The Rams couldn't hang against the Eagles at home either when they met in Week 12. Saquon Barkley had 302 total yards of offense just by himself in the Eagles' 37-20 victory.

Not only are the Eagles far superior to the Rams talent-wise, but they have home field and the Rams are in a bad situational spot. That merits a double-digit point spread in my view so I'm easily on the Eagles.

I give all the credit in the world to the coaching staff of the Vikings and to their quarterback, Sam Darnold.

If it weren't for phenomenal years from Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, Darnold would be in the MVP discussion.

But we've reached the stage where it's time to get off the Vikings. They couldn't beat the Lions at home and I don't see them winning at Detroit.

The Vikings have been extremely fortunate. They've won nine games by one score with six of their victories coming by a combined 16 points. That's an average winning margin of 2.6 points a game.

The Lions are 12-1 in their last 13 games. This is their best team since the 1950's. As solid as Darnold has been, I would take Jared Goff at home over him.

Detroit also is getting healthier on defense.

Given this choice with a low point spread, I'll back the Lions.

All the pressure is on the Broncos here being in must-win territory. This is a new experience for Denver, which hasn't made the playoffs since 2015.

Yes, the Chiefs will be resting many players, including Patrick Mahomes. But this is a Kansas City team deep in talent, prideful and with stellar coaching. The Chiefs won't roll over even without some of their key starters. Carson Wentz is one of the better backups. He won't lack motivation either as he showcases himself.

Andy Reid has a tremendous track record in the final week of the regular season. The Chiefs are 9-1 the last 10 regular season games despite being underdogs on multiple occasions.

Note, too, the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos in 17 of the last 18 meetings.

Yes, the Texans are locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC. But they are not playing well. The Texans would rather not enter the playoffs on a three-game losing streak. So their starters may play longer than some expect. If the backups do play the Texans have one of the better backup quarterbacks in Davis Mills. Houston also has had extra rest and preparation time having last played on Christmas Day.

I'd rather have Mills than either Tennessee quarterback, Will Levis or Mason Rudolph. The Titans are poorly coached, their defense has shown signs of quitting and their quarterback play has been awful. The Titans made NFL history with their 2-14 against the spread record.

The Titans have lost five in a row. They are 1-7 in their last eight games with that one victory occurring against the Texans. So Houston also has revenge motivation.

The Titans would get the No. 1 overall draft pick if they were to lose and the Patriots beat the Bills.

Injuries have decimated the 49ers this season. They are 1-6 in their last seven games and have little motivation being eliminated from the playoffs.

Dan Campbell's style is for his team to go all out. The Lions haven't forgotten about a 34-31 loss to the 49ers in the NFC championship game last season.

Detroit is 7-0 on the road and have a far better offense than the 49ers, who are down to their third-string running back, without Brandon Aiyuk and are scrambling to put together a makeshift offensive line with multiple injuries.

The Lions have multiple defensive injuries, but possess excellent depth in their defensive line and maybe the best safety tandem in the league.

The Texans made the playoffs last season. They likely will make the playoffs again because they have a two-game lead in the weak AFC South Division.

But Houston has not shown the necessary improvement to take the next step, which is beating an elite foe such as the Ravens. The Texans have played three above .500 teams during their last 10 games. They lost each of those games to the Chiefs, Lions and Packers.

Baltimore defeated the Texans, 25-9, in the opening game last year and then whipped the Texans, 34-10, in the playoffs. Both of those games were at home for the Ravens. That doesn't matter. The Ravens remain what I consider to be two tiers above Houston. So, yes, I expect them to win this game by more than a touchdown.

Playing on Christmas Day is a plus, too, for the Ravens.

The Wednesday game means the Texans probably aren't going to have two starting offensive linemen and will be missing both of their starting safeties, Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, because of injuries.

Lamar Jackson is having another MVP-caliber season with a 37-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and close to 800 yards rushing. The Texans have never beaten Jackson in four attempts. Houston's defensive strength is its pass rush. Jackson has the mobility to escape that.

The Ravens are going to get their points. I don't see C.J. Stroud keeping up. Stroud's numbers are down from his rookie season. He's minus his No. 2 and No. 3 receivers with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out. Stroud may not be fully recovered mentally from watching his friend Dell suffer a career-threatening gruesome knee injury this past week.

Houston made a smart waiver claim getting Dioontae Johnson from the Ravens, who apparently were so receiver-rich they didn't even use Johnson. However, Johnson hasn't had enough acclimation time with Houston to make a dent in this matchup.

Prop Bet

Mark Andrews to score a touchdown and go Over his yardage total

After a slow start, Mark Andrews has returned to his star form. Andrews has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games, including the past four games. During these last six games, Andrews has averaged 4.1 receptions a game and 43.6 yards. His hands are as reliable as ever.

But what makes Andrews especially intriguing in this game is Houston is down its starting safeties, Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre. That means the middle of the field should be there for the taking for Andrews. Lamar Jackson trusts him and I expect will be looking often for Andrews.

Baker Mayfield has proven his distractors wrong for a second straight season. He's thrown 32 TD passes, third-most behind Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.

But the key to Buccaneers' tremendous offensive success is their unheralded offensive coordinator, Liam Coen. He has elevated what looked to be an ordinary offense into a high-scoring unit that is the fourth-highest scoring in the NFL at 28.8 points a game. Tampa Bay has scored 30 or more points in seven games. The Bucs' ground attack has improved so much they now rank tied for second in yards per carry and fifth in rushing yards.

Dallas gives up the third most points per game in the NFL. The Cowboys rank fourth from the bottom in run defense. Making matters worse for the Cowboys is they have multiple defensive injuries, some to key players.

Tampa Bay just hung 40 points on the Chargers on the road. The Chargers had the lowest-scoring defense in the league. Dallas' defense isn't close to that level.

The Cowboys, behind backup QB Cooper Rush, don't have the offensive capability to trade points with Tampa Bay.

Dallas is 3-6 in its last nine games with two of those victories coming against the Panthers and Giants. The Cowboys simply aren't in the class of the Buccaneers.

At 3-11, the Browns organization has made the decision to punt the rest of the season hoping to improve their draft position.

Doubt this? Then how else to explain the decision to bench Jameis Winston for third-stringer Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

Yeah, Winston commits turnovers. He does it because he's in attack mode constantly throwing downfield. Winston is high variance. But Cleveland is capable of pulling upsets with him like it did against the Ravens and Steelers and nearly did against the Broncos.

Thompson-Robinson is third-string for a reason. He's a stiff. There's no way now that the Browns can trade points against Joe Burrow.

Burrow would be in the MVP discussion if Cincinnati had a better record. He leads the NFL in touchdown throws and passing yards. The Browns defense is way down ranking 26th giving up 25.4 points a game and coming up with just four takeaways.

Look for Burrow to go off again. The Browns won't be able to counter Burrow with Thompson-Robinson.

I agree with the Falcons' decision to turn to rookie Michael Penix Jr. and bench what appears to be a washed-up Kirk Cousins. 

It should not be overlooked, though, this is Penix's first NFL start. Inexperience is going to cause mistakes. 

I expect the Giants to play hard because a loss here sets a franchise record for most defeats in a row. The Giants have played better when not under home scrutiny. They are 2-4 in their road games with one of the losses occurring in overtime.

All of the Giants' road losses have been by one score. 

The Falcons have one victory by more than six points. 

Drew Lock is going to start. He's the best of a bad lot and gives the Giants their optimal chance of winning. The Giants have a beat-up offensive line. Atlanta's pass rush has improved, but it still ranks last in the league with only 23 sacks.

The class difference between these two teams is not reflected in the point spread. The Eagles hold edges on the Commanders at every position, including quarterback now that Jalen Hurts is back on the same page with ace wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. 

Philadelphia is the best team in the NFC with a franchise-record 10 consecutive victories. The Eagles have won all of these games by four or more points. 

The Commanders rank 25th in run defense. Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in rushing by 214 yards. 

The Eagles' defense has gotten much better as the team is now comfortable executing ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's system. 

Philadelphia has held its last six opponents to an average of 15.3 points a game. Jayden Daniels doesn't have the skill position weapons the Eagles have. His offensive line is much worse than Philadelphia's, too, and he's facing a much tougher defense. 

The price is cheap to get the Eagles.

Now that Matt Eberflus is gone, my vote for worst NFL head coach is Antonio Pierce of the Raiders.

Not that Pierce has much to work with since the Raiders give up the second-most points in the NFL, rank last in rushing, turn the ball over the third-highest amount and only have one star defensive player, Maxx Crosby.

Make that zero stars on defense as Crosby is now out for the season with an ankle injury.

Atlanta is a mediocre team. But mediocre is enough to beat the Raiders by a touchdown especially considering the situation.

More than likely the Raiders are going to be forced to start third-string QB Desmond Ridder. The Falcons certainly know how to defend Ridder, who is mobile but inaccurate and highly-turnover prone. Ridder started 13 games for the Falcons last season before Atlanta finally gave up on him.

The Falcons' pass rush has picked up considerably during their last two games. Atlanta has recorded nine sacks during this span. If  Aidan O'Connell is somehow able to play on a bad knee - and he's doubtful - the Raiders would have more of a downfield threat but no mobility at quarterback.

The Raiders have no above average weapons for their quarterbacks except tight end Brock Bowers. Las Vegas hasn't broken the 20-point barrier in nine of its last 10 games.

Kirk Cousins could lose his starting position if he doesn't play better for Atlanta. He has far more weapons than the Las Vegas quarterbacks do and is facing a Raiders defense that allows an average of 27.8 points per game - and that was with Crosby, one of the NFL's elite pass rushers.

The Raiders don't have much of a home field edge either with Las Vegas being a tourist destination and being in a dome with controlled settings, which is what the Falcons are used to.

The Packers have won one road game by more than five points all season. They beat the 3-10 Titans early in the season. 

During their past three away matchups, Green Bay lost to the Lions, nipped the Bears by one point by blocking a short, game-winning field goal attempt at the gun and edged the 3-10 Jaguars by a field goal. 

Now the Packers are traveling to Seattle, which has been a house of horror for them through the years. Green Bay last won at Seattle 16 years ago. 
Defensive guru Mike Macdonald has upgraded the Seahawks' defense where the team is now comfortable playing his style and system.

The Seahawks are in the argument for best defensive team during the last four weeks. They've surrendered fewer than 16 points a game during this span. 

Not once in their last four games have the Packers reached 400 yards. Jordan Love hasn't been playing as well as he did at the end of last season. 
The Packers came up with 17 takeaways during their first six games. Since then, they've forced just seven turnovers. 

Once again, star cornerback Jaire Alexander is out for the Packers. That means Green Bay is going to have to cover DK Metcalf, emerging star Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett with Carrington Valentine, Keisean Nixon and the disappointing Eric Stokes. None of those three players is NFL cornerback-starter worthy.

Just not sold on the Broncos in this price range. The Broncos have failed to win in their AFC step-up games, losing to the Steelers, Chargers, Ravens and Chiefs.

The Colts aren't in the class of those teams. However, Indy is a playoff contender that keeps games close. The only two teams the Colts have lost to by more than one-score are the Lions and Bills.

Indianapolis has won its last two road games, both outdoors against the Patriots and Jets. The Colts catch a weather break here with the forecast calling for sunny skies and temperatures in the 50's.

The Colts also are off a bye. Bo Nix is a more accurate passer than Anthony Ricahrdson, but he lacks Richardson's dual-threat big-play ability. Richardson has a winning record as an NFL starter.

Denver could be fat and happy having won three in a row. Those victories were against the Browns, Raiders and Falcons. Those teams all have losing records.

The Jets are a disappointing mess. But Aaron Rodgers still has pride and the Jets still have way more talent than Jacksonville. So I don't see the Jets losing to the Jaguars, who are playing the string out, too, with a dead man walking coach and more key injuries than New York has.

Rodgers is off his best game of the season. He has elite receiving weapons with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson. It's a bonus if Breece Hall returns after missing last week.

Not only are the Jaguars missing Trevor Lawrence, but they are without their two best receiving options with Christian Kirk and tight end Evan Engram out. That leaves only rookie Brian Thomas as a decent receiving weapon and he'll be watched by star cornerback Sauce Gardner, who is back from injury.

Mac Jones is in the argument for being the worst starting QB in the NFL right now. He has a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jones also has a 2-13 ATS record as an underdog of seven points or fewer.

Bryce Young and Carolina are much improved. Now the Panthers have reached the stage where they can lose close games. Carolina does not know how to win. So the Panthers should not be favored.

This is uncharted waters for the Panthers, who haven't been chalk since 2022. 

Dallas is down, its playoff hopes slim. But the Cowboys are not mathematically eliminated yet. Mike McCarthy is fighting for his coaching life. 

The Cowboys will have motivation. They have the best skill position player on the field, CeeDee Lamb, and the top defensive player, Micah Parsons, who is back from injury and has 3 1/2 sacks in his last three games. Parsons could wreak havoc on a bad Carolina offensive line. 

Rico Dowdle has put together the first two 100-yard rushing games of his career the past two weeks. He'll be running against the worst run defense in the league. Carolina gives up 170 yards per game on the ground and 4.97 yards per carry. The Panthers, by contrast, are thin at running back with their No. 2, 3 and 4 running backs all hurt. 

Dallas has put up an average of 27 points per game during its past three games. 

The Panthers, for all of their improvement, still have lost eight of their last 10 games.

There's too much of a defensive gap between these two teams for me to back the Rams. The timing isn't good either for LA.

San Francisco ranks third in fewest yards allowed and pass defense. The 49ers give up the fifth-fewest yards per play. 

By comparison, the Rams rank in the bottom-nine in most major defensive categories, including scoring, total defense, pass defense, yards per play and run defense. 

The Rams had no answer for the Bills this past Sunday giving up 44 points and 445 yards. Yet they still won. But now the Rams have to travel on a short week. 

The prideful 49ers are in must-win mode at 6-7. They regained their confidence returning home last week and smashing the Bears, 38-13, after losing on the road to the Bills and Packers the previous two games.

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are 11-1. They are at the highest elite level, several notches above the Chargers. Given three to 3 1/2 points for home field advantage, why then is Kansas City barely more than a field goal home favorite against Los Angeles? 

Why indeed? 

The Chargers beat the Falcons on the road inside a dome last week despite only gaining 187 yards facing a team with the fewest sacks in the league. No way will the Chargers be able to get away with that against the Chiefs on the road.

The warm-weather Chargers are looking at temperatures in the 30's with wind in the 10-15 miles per hour range for this Sunday night game in one of the toughest road venues in football. 

The Chargers are without their only decent running back, versatile J.K. Dobbins, and aren't likely to have their only decent receiver either with Ladd McConkey dealing with shoulder and knee injuries. Jim Harbaugh has turned Justin Herbert into more of a game manager than gunslinger and Herbert doesn't have the weapons to compete against Patrick Mahomes. 

Kansas City gives up the eighth-fewest points and yards per game. The Chiefs rank No. 3 in run defense. 

LA's strength is pass defense. The Chargers might have the best secondary in the league. However, the Chargers' run defense is merely average. They especially have trouble against opponents who employ a two tight end system like the Chiefs do. 

Kansas City should be able to run effectively against LA especially with Isiah Pacheco getting the rust off like he did last week. He and Kareem Hunt provide the Chiefs with a better than average 1-2 running punch. The Chiefs are back healthy at offensive tackle, too, with the return from injury of D.J. Humphries.
  
A strong ground game will allow Mahomes to pick his spots and lead to the Chiefs' seventh straight victory over the Chargers. 

The Vikings win, but they don't win by much. Minnesota's average winning margin in its past seven victories is by five points with one of those wins decided in overtime.

Minnesota is well-coached, but far from being a dominant team, not nearly as good as its 10-2 record.

This is a buy-low spot on the Falcons off a 17-13 loss to the Chargers last week. The Falcons played one of their best defensive games of the year in that loss, doubling their season sack total and rendering Justin Herbert ineffective, holding the Chargers to 187 yards and 10 first downs. They can do the same to Sam Darnold now that their defense has gotten healthy.

The takeaway, though, from that Chargers game was Kirk Cousins throwing four interceptions. Cousins won't lack motivation after that performance especially going against his former team. The Falcons are comfortable, too, playing in a dome. That is their natural setting. Cousins has weapons and the Vikings aren't expected to have injured cornerback Stephon Gilmore.

Minnesota nearly was upset by the Bears two weeks ago. It took the Vikings overtime to subdue Chicago. Then the Cardinals outgained the Vikings by 133 yards last week. Arizona led nearly the entire game before the Vikings pulled out a 23-22 home win.

Look for the Vikings' luck to finally run out here.

Facing the Steelers in Pittsburgh is not fun. It's been especially rough for the Browns, who haven't won a regular season game there since 2003! 
Look for that pattern to continue. 

The Browns are still fat-and-happy after upsetting the Steelers two weeks ago and then nearly beating the Broncos in Denver this past Monday night. So they are traveling off a short week. 

Jameis Winston threw for 497 yards and four TD's against the Broncos. Winston also was picked off three times of which two were returned for touchdowns. 

There are reasons why Winston is not a starting caliber NFL quarterback starting with interceptions. No QB in the league is more live for a pick-six than Winston, who usually follows a good game with a bad one. He is highly inconsistent. 

The Steelers get back Alex Highsmith, their second-best pass rusher. Highsmith and T.J. Watt should cause plenty of havoc against a banged-up Cleveland offensive line. The Browns haven't produced a decent ground attack all season. 

 Russell Wilson is enjoying a strong bounce back season. He's the No. 1 graded QB on passes of more than 15 yards, according to research compiled by Pro Football Focus. The Browns give up the second-most yards per pass attempt and third-most completions of 20 or more yards. 

If there's a time to step in against the Lions this is it. Detroit is getting a lot of deserved love riding a 10-game winning streak. Dan Campbell is everybody's coaching darling.

But with little fanfare, the Packers are 7-1 in their last eight games. They also happen to be 18-2 in the month of December under Matt LaFleur.

The major reason, though, why I like the Packers to spring the upset is multiple injuries to the Lions. Detroit isn't likely to have offensive left tackle Taylor Decker.

Jordan Love has a bevy of weapons. They can take advantage of a Detroit defense down its best pass rusher, two of its top three linebackers and also has additional injuries in the line and secondary.

  The Lions have the No. 1 offense in the NFL. Green Bay's defense has been coming on, though, improving against the run and putting more pressure on the quarterback. The Packers are giving up fewer than 16 points a game during their last three games.

I don't trust erratic Browns quarterback Jameis Winston, nor Cleveland's offensive line, against this caliber of defense. Denver gives up the third-fewest points, second fewest yards and has the most sacks.

The Browns are 0-4 in their last four road games with an average loss of more than 12 points in those games. Two of those defeats occurred to the Raiders and Saints, teams far worse than the Broncos.

Bo Nix plays better at home and should be able to find openings in a Browns defense missing their most versatile defender, injured linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.

Minnesota is not nearly as good as its 9-2 record. The Vikings were fortunate to play the Jaguars, Titans and Bears in their last three games. The combined record of those teams is 9-24 yet Minnesota only beat Jacksonville by five points and needed overtime to subdue Chicago.

The Vikings are due for a loss - and it comes here. Getting points with the Cardinals is just a nice bonus.

Yes, Arizona laid an egg on the road against the Seahawks this past week. The Cardinals also had trouble playing in Green Bay. But this game is inside. That's a major plus for Kyler Murray and his bevy of weapons. Arizona had won four in a row, including defeating the Chargers and Dolphins, before losing to Seattle.

The Cardinals have surrendered just five touchdowns in their last five games. That's the best in the NFL during that span. Arizona also has 14 sacks in its past three games. The Vikings could be down to their third-string offensive left tackle with Christian Darrisaw out for the season and backup Cam Robinson questionable with a foot injury.

Minnesota has been on the road during the last three weeks. So the Vikings' home advantage is somewhat negated by the family/friends distraction factor, especially coming home during Thanksgiving week.

If the Chiefs are going to cover one big point spread this season it's this game.

The Raiders are as bad as their 2-9 record shows. Las Vegas is turning back to immobile Aidan C'Connell after losing Gardner Minshew for the season because of a broken collarbone suffered last week. O'Connell has been out the last four games because of a broken thumb on his passing hand. O'Connell has admitted that his thumb is not 100 percent.

O'Connell can not expect any help from a ground game that is the worst in the NFL. Because of this early Friday start, O'Connell only was able to go through one walkthrough practice. I don't see O'Connell, or the poorly-coached Raiders, being ready for this game.

The Chiefs aren't going to lack motivation for this special stand-alone NFL Friday game, especially after the Raiders upset the Chiefs in Kansas City on Christmas Day last season.

I'll accept an inflated point spread because of the absence of Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa. This is the first time in 37 games the 49ers are not favored.

The 49ers are getting close to must-win territory being just 5-5 having blown three late leads and also lost to the Chiefs.

Backup QB Brandon Allen is a veteran. But the 49ers will be relying more on superstar all-purpose back Christian McCaffrey, who has five straight games of at least 100 yards from scrimmage, including both games he's played in this season.

The Packers' defense has been propped up by 19 takeaways, fourth-best in the league. Green Bay has invested many high draft choices on defensive players and nearly all of them have disappointed. Nose tackle Kenny Clark is having a horrible season and Jaire Alexander, the Packers' lone legitimate starting-caliber cornerback, is out.

Kyle Shanahan can coach Allen up to take advantage of Green Bay's overrated defense. Allen won't lack weapons with McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.

I'm not fooled by the Packers' 7-3 record. The Packers nearly lost to the Jaguars and then were able to block a low field goal attempt at the gun to hold off the Bears, who were averaging nine points during their previous three games.

San Francisco has come back from its previous three losses to win in its following game. The 49ers also have won their past two road games, defeating the Buccaneers and Seahawks. The Packers' last three victories have been by a combined six points. They are 0-3 the past three times they've been favored.

The Bengals have a history of being strong in the second half of the season during the Joe Burrow era going 12-4 the last two plus seasons after Week 10.

Don't be fooled by the team's records here. The oddsmaker certainly isn't. Cincinnati is 4-6, but three of those losses were to the Ravens twice and Chiefs by a combined five points.

The Chargers' 6-3 record is bolstered by five of those wins coming against the Raiders, Panthers, Saints, Browns and Titans. The combined record of those five losers is 12-35.

Cincinnati should be fortified with the expected return of Tee Higgins and offensive left tackle Orlando Brown Jr.

The Chargers' home field offers little advantage to them compared to those of other teams because of fan apathy.

The good news for the Bears is they got rid of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. The bad news is they still have Matt Eberflus as their head coach.

Chicago hasn't been right for three straight weeks, unable to recover from losing to the Commanders on a Hail Mary touchdown pass from Jayden Daniels. The Bears are averaging nine points during their last three games and have gone 23 consecutive offensive drives without a touchdown.

Physically the Bears have multiple offensive line injuries. Caleb Williams, a mental wreck, has been sacked an average of six times during each of the last three games. 

The Packers were idle last week. They've had two weeks to stew about a home loss to the Lions that ended a four-game winning streak. Green Bay has beaten and covered against Chicago 10 straight times. They are in a great position to extend that streak. 

I understand that Jameis Winston can blow hot or cold. But the Browns have been the healthiest they've been all season coming out of their bye. Their offensive line should have the right pieces finally in place and Nick Chubb should have the rust off. 

Mainly, though, this is a fade on New Orleans. The Saints are terrible on both sides of the ball. They rank in the bottom-six in yards allowed, rush defense and pass defense. Derek Carr has maybe the worst set of wideouts in the league with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed out. The Saints' offensive line, not good to begin with, has injuries, too.

The Browns' defense has regressed this season, but their pass rush is still good led by Myles Garrett. Carr is at his worst when pressured. 

The Saints gave an all-out effort getting a coaching bump in Darren Rizzi's first game as interim coach in last week's victory against the Falcons. Atlanta, though, outplayed New Orleans. The Falcons happened to miss three field goals in that game.

I don't see the Saints nearly as motivated for this non-division matchup especially with their bye coming next week. 

Great job by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers this season. But I don't see the Steelers continuing their magic in this step-up matchup. 

Pittsburgh is riding a four-game win streak after nipping the Commanders by one point this past Sunday. The Steelers' previous three victories were against the Giants, Jets and Raiders, whose combined record is 7-22. 

Baltimore is in the argument for best team in the NFL. Certainly the Ravens are the most explosive. Lamar Jackson has thrown 24 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. Thanks to Jackson, rushing leader Derrick Henry and a bevy of quality receivers, the Ravens are No. 1 in the NFL in points, yards and rushing yards. The Steelers just surrendered 27 points to the Commanders. The previous week they gave up 22 points to the punchless Giants. No way can they contain the Ravens.

Pittsburgh is reliant upon the run. Baltimore has the top run defense in the NFL. Russell Wilson is far from his prime. He can't keep up with Jackson. Pittsburgh ranks 26th in passing. 

The Ravens play well on the road, too, going 10-3 during their past 13 away contests. The Ravens defense is dropping way down in quarterback class facing Wilson after going against Joe Burrow. 

All the credit in the world to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders for their surprising 7-3 record. But they aren't nearly as good as the Eagles are from top to bottom and face a brutal scheduling spot here.

The Eagles are back on track winning five in a row. Jalen Hurts has far better skill position talent than Daniels. While Daniels is looking like the Rookie of the Year, Hurts quietly has accounted for 16 touchdowns in his last five games. Philadelphia is averaging 31.7 points in its past four games.

Not only does Hurt have elite receiving targets, but Saquon Barkley should eat well, too, facing a Washington run defense that ranks fifth-from-the-bottom.

While the Eagles had an easy time against the Cowboys last week, the Commanders suffered a tough 28-27 home loss to the Steelers that could be a burst to their growing confidence and swagger.

It's always tough being the road team on Thursday night. The short week also might prevent running back Brian Robinson Jr. and cornerback Marshon Lattimore from playing after missing last week due to injuries.

Nico Collins and pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. are two of the Texans' five best players. I don't think either one is going to play against the Lions. But even if they do, I still like Detroit to beat Houston by at least a touchdown.

The well-balanced Lions are a top-five team. Houston is 6-3, but 3-6 ATS and not in Detroit's elite class. The Texans have won four of their games against their weak AFC South Division foes. The other two were against the Patriots and Bears. Houston lost to the Packers in Green Bay. The Lions just got done beating the Packers by double-digits in Green Bay.

Letdown you say for Detroit after a highly-satisfying victory against the Packers? No way. Not with this being the nationally televised Sunday night game.  

The Lions have the highest-scoring offense, the best point differential and the best turnover differential. Jared Goff has the highest passer rating (140.1) during the past six games in NFL history for any QB with at least 50 passing attempts. And now Goff gets back from suspension the Lions' most explosive player, Jameson Williams. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are both on pace to rush for more than 1,000 yards.

The Texans have permitted 19 TD passes already having given up just 17 last season.

Houston's offense line sprung a week against the Jets last week allowing C.J. Stroud to be sacked eight times. The Lions just beefed up their pass rush acquiring Za'darius Smith. Detroit is 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this season.

No need to overthink this and be afraid to lay a touchdown on the road in a division game. The Eagles are ascending despite Nick Sirianni's best efforts to prevent this. The Cowboys were close to dead with Dak Prescott. Now they don't have him. Micah Parsons may return here, but it's too late.

The Cowboys can't be saved, certainly not by backup QB Cooper Rush. He's a competent systems backup. But he needs weapons surrounding him. Aside from CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys offer nothing at the skill positions. Dallas is the second-worst rushing team in the NFL.

The Eagles are the lone team in the league to rank in the top six in both offense and defense.

Philadelphia is averaging 31 points in its last three games. Dallas is surrendering an average of 34.6 points in its past three games. Jalen Hurts has accounted for 12 touchdowns in his last four games. Saquon Barkley is in the argument for best all-around running back. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are in the argument for best wide receiver tandem and both are expected to play here after being banged-up.

Bad news for a Dallas defense that is allowing a staggering 41.7 points in its last four home games.

The Eagles have won 16 of their last 22 road games. This includes a 4-0 mark this season when not playing at Lincoln Financial Field.

Hard to imagine these two teams are a combined 13-4. Pittsburgh is the better all-around team so getting points with the Steelers is a bonus.

The Steelers have the second-stingiest defense in the NFL giving up just 14.9 points a game. They should be well prepared for dual threat Jayden Daniels having had an extra week of preparation with their bye. Pittsburgh defense also gets to practice against Justin Fields, another dual threat type of quarterback with great mobility.

Pittsburgh is 12-4 off a bye under Mike Tomlin, including winning the last seven times in that spot.

Daniels will be without his top running back as Brian Robinson Jr. is out another week due to a hamstring injury. The Steelers, on the other hand, are getting a number of their walking wounded back. This includes center Zach Frazier and running back/stud kickoff returner Cordarrelle Patterson.

Newly acquired cornerback Marshon Lattimore won't play for Washington because of a hamstring injury. The Commanders rank 29th in run defense and have just three takeaways. The ground-oriented Steelers should be able to put Russell Wilson, who has played well in his last two games, into favorable play-calling situations.

Pittsburgh hasn't lost by more than three points all season. The Steelers won straight-up the two times they were underdogs.

Yes the 49ers are 4-4. No one doubts their talent, though, especially since they are going to be reinforced coming off their bye with Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings and kicker Jake Moody all likely to return here. Deebo Samuel should be a go, too.

Let the record show that San Francisco is 16-2 following a Week 9 bye during the past two seasons.

Tampa Bay's defense is way down, ranking 28th in points allowed and 30th in pass defense. Tampa Bay's gassed defense was on the field for 83 plays this past Monday night in an overtime road loss to the Chiefs. Now they're playing on one less day of rest. Unlike the rested 49ers, the Buccaneers haven't had their bye yet. This will be their 10th straight week of action.

Baker Mayfield has compensated for the loss of his two star wideouts, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, by targeting tight end Cade Otton and his running backs out of the backfield. The 49ers' linebackers, though, are excellent in covering tight ends and running backs. The 49ers have a defensive passer rating of 78.7, fourth-best in the NFL.

All the Colts do is play one-score games. All of their eight games this season have been decided by six or fewer points. 
Expect another one-score affair in this matchup. 

Minnesota's magic is slipping away with two straight losses. 

Sam Darnold could turn into a pumpkin at any time. The Colts have gotten healthy on defense. Having defensive line stud DeForest Buckner makes a huge difference for Indy.

The Vikings will be without their best offensive lineman, injured left tackle Christian Darrisaw. He's out for the season after suffering a knee injury against the Rams last week. The Vikings are so concerned about protecting the immobile Darnold they just traded for overpriced Jaguars' offensive left tackle Cam Robinson, who Jacksonville benched against the Packers last Sunday. 

Inexperienced Anthony Richardson may have struggled on the road inside a dome against the Vikings' aggressive, blitz-happy defense orchestrated by defensive coordinator, Brian Flores. That style of defense, though, shouldn't faze veteran Joe Flacco, who was named the Colts' starter. The veteran Flacco has shown plenty of life during the past couple of seasons. Flacco has passed for 716 yards with a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in parts of three games this season. Flacco had 13 TD passes in five games for the Browns last year. 

The Vikings rank 30th in pass defense. All of the Colts' wideouts are made better with the switch from the erratic and inaccurate Richardson to Flacco. Minnesota has surrendered at least 29 points in three of its last four games.  

It doesn't matter if it's Jordan Love or Malik Willis behind center for Green Bay. The Packers are not at the level of the Lions and are going to lose this game.

Detroit has won and covered in its last five games, peaking right now. The Lions are averaging 43 points a game during their past four games.

During the past two weeks, Green Bay was barely able to squeak past the Texans at home and then nipped the 2-6 Jaguars by three points last Sunday on a field goal at the gun.

I doubt the Packers risk Love since they have their bye next week. Love is on pace to throw 28 interceptions this season. He might be gimpy if he plays. Willis can't throw downfield. The Packers would have no backdoor capability if Willis gets the start.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have become the best running back tandem in football. Jared Goff is the highest rated passer in the NFC. Amon-Ra St. Brown gives Detroit the best wide receiver on the field. The Lions hold a special teams edge, too.

Green Bay's defense isn't that good, nor does it produce a consistent pass rush. The Packers have been propped up by an unsustainable 19 takeaways, which is No. 1 in the NFL. It's more than the Packers had all of last season.

Goff's matchup gets even better if cornerback Jaire Alexander and versatile defensive back Evan Williams can't go for Green Bay. They were both injured against the Jaguars.

Look for an all-out, intense effort from the Cowboys, who trail the Commanders and Eagles by two games in the NFC East.

I doubt that will be the case for the Falcons, who are fat and happy leading the NFC South after defeating their main division rival, Tampa Bay, for the second time in four weeks.

Dallas lacks a ground attack. But Dak Prescott has a top-three wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and should have plenty of time in the pocket. The Falcons have just six sacks, lowest in the NFL. Atlanta is giving up nearly 27 points a game during its past five games. The Falcons have been without their best defensive back, safety Justin Simmons, and top linebacker, Troy Andersen.

After facing the 49ers, Lions and Steelers, the Cowboys are dropping way down in defensive class against this opponent.

Kirk Cousins has been great against the Buccaneers with an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, he has 6-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his other games this season. It's a huge bonus if Dallas gets back injured pass rushing stud Micah Parsons.

The Lions just may be the best team in the NFC right now, but they are in uncharted point spread territory here. They've never been this high of a favorite in the Dan Campbell era.

Detroit is laying these big points, too, in a division sandwich spot. The Lions went all out - physically and emotionally -  to nip the Vikings on a field goal with 15 seconds left this past Sunday. The Lions meet the Packers in Green Bay the following week.

In between the lowly Titans come calling. Can't blame the Lions for looking past Tennessee.

That could prove embarrassing, though, for Detroit.  

The Titans give up the fewest yards per play. They also rank No. 3 in pass defense.

Reckless second-year QB Will Levis has sunk the Titans with his boneheaded turnovers.

Veteran Mason Rudolph, though, is expected to make his second straight start as Levis nurses a sore shoulder. Rudolph is mediocre at best, but he knows how to take care of the ball. He has a reliable running back, Tony Pollard, an improving offensive line and decent receivers even with DeAndre Hopkins getting traded.

The Titans have lost by one score in three of their five defeats. They can keep this one close given the circumstances and Detroit missing star defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson and suspended explosive, big-play wideout Jameson Williams.

After dominating the Patriots, 24-3, the Jets have lost four in a row. Those defeats came to the Broncos, Vikings, Bills and Steelers. The combined record of those teams is 19-9. Now the Jets drop way down in class getting the Patriots again. 

New England hasn't won since opening week. The Patriots have lost six in a row with their past five defeats being by an average of 15.8 points. 
The Jets have gotten two key reinforcements - Davante Adams and elite pass rusher Haasan Reddick, who has 27 sacks the past two years going into this season. He was second in the NFL in sacks two seasons ago. 

The Patriots have regressed defensively due to injuries and a suspension to safety Jabril Peppers. Among those out for New England are Christian Barrmore, their top defensive lineman, and their best linebacker, Ja'Whuan Bentley. 

Drake Maye is a downfield passing upgrade on Jacoby Brissett. The Patriots have multiple offensive line injuries and are well below par at wide receiver. The rookie Maye has to face an above average Jets defense with these handicaps. 

I expect the Jets to be highly motivated to end their losing streak especially after Adams and Aaron Rodgers questioned the team's energy following a 37-15 loss to the Steelers last Sunday. 

On the flip side, I question the morale of the Patriots and the ability of first-year head coach Jerod Mayo. The Patriots also could be flat from lingering jet lag having played in London last Sunday where they got blown out by the lowly Jaguars. 

When Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and starting, the Dolphins are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL. Tagovailoa makes all his speedy skill position weapons dangerous.

Well Tagovailoa is back in the lineup and Miami should get a huge spark from that, especially being home. The Dolphins face a bottom-tier Cardinals defense that has multiple injuries in their defensive front seven and has a weak secondary that ranks 26th. One of the defenders the Cardinals just lost was linebacker Dennis Gardeck, who is their team leader in sacks.

The Cardinals are traveling cross-country on a short week after upsetting the Chargers at home this past Monday night. Arizona's offense is at its worst playing on grass outdoors.

Note, too, that the last time Kyler Murray won consecutive starts was 2021. It's a string of 11 losses in a row following a victory.

The fat-and-happy Falcons, off three consecutive NFC South Division victories, are looking to win four in a row for the first time since 2019.

I don't see it happening here.

There's tremendous urgency here for the Seahawks. Seattle opened 3-0, but has dropped its past three games.

Let's look at those defeats. The first occurred against the Lions, 42-29, on the road on Monday night. The Seahawks were hampered by multiple defensive injuries against a Lions squad that leads the NFL in points per game. Seattle then traveled home to host the Giants on a short week. The Seahawks played a terrible game and lost to the Giants. Next up was a Thursday night game against the 49ers, maybe the most talented team in the NFL.

Now the Seahawks are dropping down in class and doing it with extra time to prepare and rest. Their defense isn't back to full strength, but it has gotten healthier with promising rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy expected back. Seattle also bolstered its defensive line, acquiring veteran Roy Robertson-Harris.

Atlanta is better because of Kirk Cousins at quarterback and Arthur Smith no longer being there to feature second-stringers instead of his star skill position players. However, the Falcons remain below average defensively. They are 24th in run defense and last in the NFL in sacks with just five.

Geno Smith will have to throw for the first time in four games. He has the wide receiving weapons to burn a vulnerable Falcons secondary. Kenneth Walker III is back healthy to provide Smith with a running back threat.

The Falcons have not been good in this role going 4-10 the last 14 times they've been favored.

I get that the Bengals are 1-4 and their defense has taken a major step back. I also know the Bengals can't take a loss here. This is the Bengals' season and they are on national television with this being the Sunday night game.

I'm not going to quit on the Bengals. Their offense is humming. The Giants don't have the skill position talent to trade points with Joe Burrow especially with Malik Nabors out for a second straight week due to a concussion.

The Bengals are averaging 32.4 points in their last four games. Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are playing at elite levels. The Giants have an outstanding pass rush. Yet lost in all the adulation for Burrow and Chase is that Cincinnati's offensive line has been playing well. 

The Bengals have decent coaching on the defensive side of the ball. Many of their defenders, especially safeties Von Bell and Geno Stone, are better than what they've shown so far. Cincinnati has faced three quarterbacks far better than Daniel Jones during their past four games in Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels and Patrick Mahomes.

Surprised the 4-1 Broncos are home underdogs to the 2-2 Chargers? I'm not. The Chargers are the better team and in the better situation.

Even though this is a division game, the Broncos have to be fat and happy with three victories in a row, including underdog road wins against the Jets and Buccaneers. They just blew out the Raiders further bolstering their complacency.

The Chargers got off to a 2-0 start. But then could manage only 10 points apiece in losses to the Chiefs and Steelers. Those are two excellent defenses, but the Chargers didn't have their star offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. That not only hurt their ground attack, but Justin Herbert couldn't get enough time in the pocket.

Slater and Alt are expected to play this Sunday. That should make a big difference in LA's offenses.

I like Herbert much more than Bo Nix, who is a dink-and-dunker with a 3-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Chargers' defense has been outstanding, surrendering an NFL-low 12.5 points a game and giving up the fifth-fewest yards per game. Denver's offensive line is banged-up, too, with its right tackle and center likely out.    

Not only are the Broncos in fat-and-happy mode, but the hungry Chargers are coming off a bye on a two-game losing streak. They are stepping down in class from the Chiefs and Steelers. Jim Harbaugh will have them ready.

I want no part of the rudderless Raiders. They have serious morale issues, a bad head coach and a bottom-tier quarterback situation.
The Steelers are a well-coached, defensive-minded power team. A good quarterback can beat the Steelers like Dak Prescott did last week. But the Raiders lack that.

Las Vegas is switching QB's going with Aidan O'Connell. He's not any better than Gardner Minshew. Both are backup quality. Davante Adams remains out leaving the Raiders with woeful wide receivers to go with below par running backs. 

The Raiders are going against a Pittsburgh defense that yields the second-fewest points per game at 14.6. 

The Steelers should do enough offensively to cover this number. Bo Nix, after all, posted a 117.2 passer rating against the Raiders last week in Denver's, 34-18, victory. The Raiders had 11 penalties in that game. Antonio Pierce has long worn out the initial spark he provided the Raiders when he first took over as head coach last year. He's a bottom-five coach in my book, while Mike Tomlin is a future Hall of Famer. 

Pittsburgh was nipped by Dallas in the final minute last week. The Steelers are 8-3 ATS following a loss. 

The Steelers are heavily run-oriented. The Raiders rank 28th in scoring defense and 22nd in run defense. They are now without star defensive lineman Christian Wilkins. 

The Raiders are minus 7 in turnovers. The Steelers are plus 4. 

Getting behind the Patriots is a combination that new starting QB Drake Maye will provide a spark and a downfield passing attack New England lacked with Jacoby Brissett and the Texans being overpriced without Nico Collins and possibly Joe Mixon again.

This is the largest the Texans have been favored during the two-year DeMeco Ryans era. And it comes on the road. 

It's Houston's first game without Collins, who leads the NFL in receiving yards. It's a big loss because the Texans lack a reliable ground attack if Mixon has to miss another week. 

Maye gives the Patriots an element of surprise since this is his first NFL start. He'll have the home crowd on his side. 

The Patriots are bottom-three bad. But they will be up for this game while the Texans are in a flat spot off consecutive satisfying victories against the Bills and Jaguars. 

Houston's four victories have been by an average of 3.7 points. 

The Bears have looked so good in their last two games that they are favored against the Jaguars in London. I say whoa to that.

Chicago's victories the past two weeks have come against the Panthers, perhaps the worst defensive team in the NFL, and the beat-up Rams. 
The Jaguars finally got their offense going with Trevor Lawrence having his biggest game of the season in a 37-34 win against the Colts this past Sunday. 

Tank Bigsby emerged in that game as a legitimate home-run threat and the Jaguars are expected to have back tight end Evan Engram. He's a key part to Jacksonville's offense. Engram has missed the last four games. 

The Jaguars know how to prepare and play in London. They've done it for 11 of the past 12 seasons. The Bears are new to this and also they are in a fat and happy mood ready for a fall. Chicago isn't good enough to beat a motivated team unless playing well. 

If Seattle wins this game it would be leading the NFC West with a 4-2 record while the 49ers would be 2-4. I can't envision that. The 49ers have uncharacteristically blown two double-digit fourth quarter leads, or they would be 4-1. That's more in line with the talent the 49ers possess, which I regard as the best in the NFC. 

So I'm not going to overthink this. Records be damned. The 49ers are the superior team and they won't lack motivation after a bad home loss to the Cardinals last Sunday. The 49ers probably would have won that game if their kicker, Jake Moody, didn't suffer an ankle injury leaving them without a suitable field goal kicker. That problem has been rectified with the 49ers signing Matthew Wright. 

The Seahawks have capitalized on playing a weak schedule. Yet they were thoroughly outplayed and lost at home to the Giants last week despite New York missing its star wide receiver Malik Nabers. 

Seattle is a mediocre team with a cluster injury problem to its defensive front and has a weak offensive line that has allowed Geno Smith to be sacked 18 times, highest in the NFC. 

The Seahawks' home field edge is way overrated just 5-12 ATS in their past 17 home games. The Seahawks also have lost five in a row to the 49ers with the average losing margin being 15.2 points. None of the games have been close. 

This isn't the dangerous, Super Bowl-caliber Bills team of the past four seasons. The Bills are more down than perceived. It wasn't a fluke that the Bills were exposed by the Ravens this past Sunday night.

The Bills aren't explosive anymore. Josh Allen doesn't have the quality wide receivers he had before. Stefon Diggs is on Houston now. He will have the Texans highly motivated to beat his former Bills team. Khalil Shakir is Buffalo's top wide receiver and he's out with an ankle injury.

The Texans have the better overall roster given Buffalo's multiple key injuries on defense.

C.J. Stroud leads the AFC in passing yards. Nico Collins is emerging as a top-five wide receiver. Diggs will be involved. Tank Dell is expected back. It's an added plus if Joe Mixon can return after being out the past two weeks.

Houston is 9-3 at home under second-year coach DeMeco Ryans.

This line is too respectful of the Panthers. Are they a better team with Andy Dalton at QB? Yes. Are they still the worst team in the NFC? Yes, too.

Dalton isn't some savior. He's an over-the-hill, mediocre starting QB who only has looked decent in comparison to Bryce Young.

Defense, though, is the Panthers' biggest problem. Carolina is surrendering the most points in the NFL giving up 32.3 a game. The Panthers' defense is likely to get even worse as injuries take a toll. They are without their best defensive lineman, Derrick Brown, and just this past week lost their two best linebackers, Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell.

The Bears have a top-10 defense. They are very opportunistic, too, ranking fourth in takeaways.

Caleb Williams is improving each week. The Bears displayed a balanced attack last week, which can only help Williams as he now faces the easiest defense of his early NFL career.

The Colts are 2-2. The Jaguars are 0-4, the lone winless team in the NFL. But Jacksonville isn't a terrible 0-4. The Jaguars are 2-2 ATS and have losses to the Dolphins, Browns and Texans by a combined margin of 12 points, an average loss of four points. A goal line fumble cost the Jaguars probably a sure win against Miami when the Dolphins were at full strength with Tua Tagovailoa.

The oddsmaker believes it's time for the Jaguars to win making them the favorite. I agree. 

The Colts, a dome team, haven't won at Jacksonville since 2014. Indy has dropped nine consecutive road games against the Jaguars, counting one in London. There is a high possibility of rain for this game. That's a plus in Jaguars' favor being an outdoor team. 

Jacksonville not only is due and in must-win mode win, but the timing is good. The Colts are severely hobbled. Jonathan Taylor is out and Anthony Richardson isn't likely to play leaving the Jaguars to defend against immobile Joe Flacco.

The Colts are even more banged-up on defense. They are down several defensive backs and linemen, including three-time Pro Bowler DeForest Buckner. The Colts rank 31st in run defense. The Jaguars are averaging 5.7 yards per run, which rates second in the NFL.

First-year head coach Mike Macdonald has gotten the Seahawks out to a 3-0 start. Macdonald is a defensive mastermind and appears to be a promising head coach.

But this is a bad spot for the Seahawks, who have been fortunate to have begun with three easy opponents: Broncos, Patriots - who they beat in overtime - and Dolphins minus Tua Tagovailoa getting Skyler Thompson and Tim Boyle instead. The Seahawks committed 11 penalties in their victory against Miami, but the Dolphins were done in by totally inept quarterback play. That won't be the case here with Jared Goff and his bevy of weapons and excellent offensive line.

The Lions hold Super Bowl aspirations. The Seahawks are far from that stage. This is a huge step-up game for Seattle.

Detroit has revenge for a 37-31 overtime home loss to the Seahawks last year. The Lions also catch Seattle down four key members of their defensive front seven. The Seahawks also might be missing starting linebacker Jerome Baker, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Out for Seattle are Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe. The Seahawks don't have much of a pass rush without Nwosu and Mafe.

The Seahawks do expect to get back running back Kenneth Walker III. But offensive right tackle George Fant remains out. Backup tackle Stone Forsythe replaces Fant and has the primary responsibility of blocking emerging superstar Aidan Hutchinson, who entered this week leading the NFL in sacks with 6 1/2.