Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-26-19 | Ohio v. Akron +28 | Top | 52-3 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #302 Tuesday 10* Top Play Akron Zips (+) vs Ohio University Bobcats @ 6 ET - The Zips showed last week at Miami (Ohio) that they weren't going to just lay down to end the season. It has been a miserable season for Akron and they entered that game 0-10 SU and ATS. However, as a massive underdog of 4 TDs the Zips hung tough with the RedHawks throughout that game and lost by just 3 points. Keep in mind that was on the road too and Miami has had a strong season. That is why I love taking Akron this week as a 4 TD underdog at home. Yes Ohio University needs to win this game for bowl eligibility but the Zips would love to spoil that for the Bobcats and avoid an 0-12 season in the process. While I don't see that happening, I do expect them to hang around in this game all the way through. Ohio U is off a dominating win at Bowling Green but they entered that game just 2-8 ATS this season. As bad as the Zips season has been they have had only one loss by more than 29 points in their past 10 games. Again, Akron would love to spoil the Bobcats bowl hopes and, while I don't see that happening here, I do expect them to hang within a couple scores throughout this game. The Zips are actually 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the last time they hosted Ohio U they won outright as a double digit dog! Last week's big Bobcats win was the first time this season they had won a game by a margin of more than 21 points. Also, Ohio U's first 4 wins this season came by an average margin of 10.5 points. This game will be much closer than many are expecting. 10* AKRON | |||||||
11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams (+) vs Baltimore Ravens @ 8:15 ET - The odds makers were completely unaware that the Ravens have been playing better than the Rams this season so they set the odds at a pick'em in this one. I am kidding of course but you can see where I am going with this one. This game opened up with Baltimore as a picks and now the line is up to as high as a -4 as of very early game day morning even though this match-up is at Los Angeles. In typical contrarian fashion I am going against the move here as I back LA in this one. The Rams strength on offense is the pass game and the Ravens weakness on defense is against the pass. Baltimore's strength on offense is the run game while the Rams strength on defense is against the run. Per the above and the fact I am getting more than a field goal with a quality home team, I like the dog in this one! The Rams have allowed just 11 points per game in their last 4 games while the Ravens have allowed 21 points per game in their last 4 road games. The Rams defense is not getting enough respect here and don't be surprised if their passing attack does some solid damage here on offense in this one. 10* LOS ANGELES | |||||||
11-25-19 | 76ers +1 v. Raptors | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #507 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Toronto Raptors @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors are 6-0 at home this season. Toronto also has amazingly won 13 straight regular season home games over Philadelphia as well. That said this this line must be a huge mistake, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about "mistakes" by the odds makers. The point is don't be fooled by this line. The Sixers come in rolling off a huge win over a solid Miami team. That was the type of blowout home win that can spring a team to success in their very next game even if on the road. Of course this is a massive revenge game from last year's playoff loss for the 76ers against the Raptors when Kawhi Leonard hit that amazing game-ending shot to send Philly home for the summer. The fact is Leonard is now in LA with the Clippers, Serge Ibaka has been out and if he returns tonight would be less than 100 percent and rusty, and Kyle Lowry is still out for Toronto with an injury. Even though the Raptors have had a good start to this season this is still a team that is currently a shell of its former self. As for the Sixers, in terms of key players all hands are on deck and healthy. Only Furkan Korkmaz is questionable but Jason Richardson is back so that negates the impact of the Korkmaz injury. This is a payback game for the 76ers which has been circled in blood once the schedule came out. Look for a road rout in this one as you'll see probably the most determined effort so far this season from a hungry Sixers team here. 10* PHILADELPHIA | |||||||
11-24-19 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | 8-37 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday 8* Green Bay Packers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The Niners are a little banged up and have covered just once in their last five games! Last week San Francisco was fortunate to even beat Arizona as the final margin of victory of 10 points was very deceiving. If anything that helped to give us some line value here because truly Green Bay has played the tougher schedule this season and also comes in rested off a bye week. They are also "out for blood" a bit in this road game. I say that because even though the Packers are off a home win, it was their most recent road effort that really had QB Aaron Rodgers fired up. That was also on the west coast and it was a 26-11 loss at Los Angeles at the hands of the Chargers. Rest assured Rodgers and the coaching staff have been reminding the team of that ugly road effort as they have now had two weeks to prepare for this game and they don't want to repeat that. The Packers were a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in road games this season before the debacle at LA. San Francisco is certainly a very strong team but they truly are a little over-rated and with the injuries they have and the fact that this situation sets up so well for the road dog, I am grabbing the points with Green Bay. The Packers have failed to cover just twice the last thirteen times they are off a bye week! San Francisco has just 6 ATS wins the last 21 times they have been a home favorite. Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan is doing a great job here but note that he is 2-11 ATS when at home and off a game in which the 49ers scored 22 or more points. A lot of systems, angles, situational value all pointing the way of the road team in this one. 8* GREEN BAY | |||||||
11-24-19 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg +4 | Top | 12-33 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Grey Cup Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #896 Sunday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 6 ET - Give Hamilton credit for being here and certainly they are a great team but I don't see Winnipeg being denied. The Tiger-Cats had the best regular season and record and then, after a bye the first week of the playoffs, they faced an Edmonton team that was truly only a mediocre team this season. But how about these Blue Bombers and what they have faced. They didn't get a first round bye they went on the road and beat a great Calgary team in the first week of the playoffs. Then last week, courtesy of some great late game defense including goal line stands, they went on the road again and beat another great team in Saskatchewan. The point is that the Blue Bombers defense is rising to the occasion at the right time and they truly seem like a team of destiny at this point. They are on a roll and playing every week and winning every week and even on the road in tough venues. I feel Hamilton, as strong as they are, may struggle here in playing their first non-home game since October! Look for the road warrior Blue Bombers to deliver the shocking upset here but of course I am grabbing the points and loving the line move here. A line that opened up with Hamilton as the slightest of favorites now has the Ti-Cats as a 4-point fave here. Fade the move, this Blue Bombers teams is special this year and has allowed just 13.5 points per game in this post-season. If Hamilton does prevail I certainly expect it to be by 3 or less points so I love the underdog value here and I expect the outright upset. Grab the points. 10* WINNIPEG | |||||||
11-24-19 | Kings +3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #569 Sunday 10* Top Play Sacramento Kings (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 6:05 ET - I am going to fade the line move here. Wizards opened up only favored by a bucket here but now are closer to two buckets and the fact is Washington had absolutely no business covering their game against Charlotte Friday night. That one handed me a 1/2 point ATS loss and I certainly haven't forgotten about it. The Wizards truly looked like they weren't even going to win the game let alone cover it. When a team wins a game like that it has no business winning it tends to mask issues. The fact is that Washington is a bad team defensively but they don't even realize they need to fix it because they get a fortunate win like that over the Hornets. Now here come the Kings whom, though dealing with injuries, are very scrappy and play much better defense. Prior to allowing 116 points in back to back games Sacramento had allowed less than 102 points in 5 of 7 games. Of course this was a key part of the reason the Kings had won 6 of 8 games prior to their ugly loss at Brooklyn Friday. They'll make up for that defeat here and I am expecting an outright win for a Kings team that will prove to be the much hungrier team in this match-up. They have tough games coming up at Boston and Philly and the Kings are smart enough to know this is the game they need to get. I expect them to do just that but am grabbing the points as added insurance. 10* SACRAMENTO | |||||||
11-24-19 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 20-42 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #267 Sunday 10* Top Play Jacksonville Jaguars (+) @ Tennessee Titans @ 4:05 ET - Jacksonville got blown out by 20 points last week but Nick Foles returned at QB and will be even sharper in his second game back. Tennessee is off a bye week but the Titans got a miracle comeback win over the Chiefs prior to the bye. This is the type of a situation where a team often struggles and Tennessee also has failed to cover 5 of its last 6 divisional games. The Jags come in fired up off an ugly loss and Jacksonville did have a bye the prior week so they are in pretty good shape here from a health standpoint. Tennessee is playing with revenge here from a loss at Jacksonville earlier this season when Minshew was at QB. However, this Titans defeat simply continued their recurring pattern of struggling in divisional games. Also, there is a reason Tennessee opened up as only 2.5 point favorites when lines first came out on this game. They since rose to as high as a 4 and I love fading the moves in situations just like this one. By the way, the Titans are 1-9 ATS in games 9 through 12 of a season when they are off a home game. Watch that big win over the Chiefs leave Tennessee a bit flat in this one and Foles and the Jaguars are coming off hungry after getting blasted at Indianapolis. Remember that is now back to back ugly defeats for Jacksonville (also lost in London two weeks ago) and the Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in games 9 through 12 of a season when they are off a loss that came by a double digit margin both SU and ATS. 10* JACKSONVILLE | |||||||
11-23-19 | Heat +4 v. 76ers | Top | 86-113 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Saturday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:35 ET - Both teams were in action last night and Philly does have the advantage of being at home for this one. However, this is a horrible spot for the 76ers because you know they can't help but look ahead. On deck for the Sixers is a huge game Monday which is their first crack at Toronto since the infamous Game 7 knockout blow on the last second shot from Kawhi Leonard sent the Raptors to the Eastern Conference finals and sent the 76ers home for the summer. That huge game is Monday at Toronto and the last team you want to be overlooking right now is Miami but that is the situation here and I fully expect the Heat to take advantage. Though Philly has won 3 straight, this was preceded by a 2-5 stretch for the Sixers. Miami has definitely been the hotter team as they have won 5 straight games and are 11-3 on the season. The Heat shoot better overall and particularly much better from three point land. They also defend much better and that includes from three point land as well. They are the better team at this point in the season and yet we get a handful of points because the Sixers are at home. That is the perceived edge for the 76ers here but again it is a bad situational spot for them and they aren't even the better team in this match-up at this point in the season. Additionally, back to backs always seem to put a strain on Philadelphia because of Joel Embiid's conditioning issues. 10* MIAMI | |||||||
11-23-19 | Yale +16 v. Penn State | Top | 56-58 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #609 Saturday 10* Top Play Yale Bulldogs (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 4 ET - The Bulldogs lost 4 starters coming into this season but they are already exceeding early season expectations. That's because Yale has a strong foundation with its program and guys who were coming off the bench last season are now taking over key roles and they are performing extremely well. The Bulldogs are 3-2 this season and the two losses came at San Francisco and at Oklahoma State. They lost by just 5 as a 4.5 dog to SF and they lost by just 7 as a 13 point dog to OSU. The Bulldogs can hang tough here with Penn State. The Nittany Lions are simply getting a little too much love here from the betting markets. This line opened up at a 14.5 and has risen to a 16 as of this morning. Penn State, of course, is a Big Ten team but they're certainly not the upper echelon of the conference and the Bulldogs are a top team in the Ivy. Now I am not staying Yale wins this game, of course not. I am just saying I believe they will keep this loss in single digit territory just like they did against a tough Cowboys team on the road. The Nittany Lions only tough test so far this season was at Georgetown but the Hoyas are very bad on the defensive end. The Bulldogs will prove to be a stiffer challenge and the rest of the Lions early season schedule has been very light. Grab the big points here. 10* YALE | |||||||
11-23-19 | North Texas -6.5 v. Rice | Top | 14-20 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #185 Saturday 10* Top Play North Texas Mean Green (-) @ Rice Owls @ 3:30 ET - First off QB Mason Fine is probable for this game and of course that was an important aspect of this play. With Fine at the controls the Mean Green offense is tough to stop and I don't foresee the Owls being able to keep up in this one. North Texas is angry here as they have had time to work up plenty of energy for this one. The Mean Green got demolished 52-17 by Louisiana Tech before their bye week. Keep in mind, prior to this North Texas had averaged 37 points per game in their 6 prior games. Look for their offense to bounce back huge here and keep in mind they are facing a 1-win Rice team. In similar match-ups with struggling teams in CUSA, the Mean Green annihilated UTSA 45-3 and UTEP 52-26. I know the Owls have been more competitive this season but, again, they just don't match up well here because they don't have the offense to keep up. Rice is off a shocking upset win at Middle Tennessee but the Owls were outgained in that game and won thanks to turnovers. Rice still didn't get to the 400 yard mark on offense and they allowed more than 450 yards but won the game and the point is that the Owls 377 yards was a season high. So Rice had their best game on offense and yet still were fortunate to win. They won't be so fortunate here. North Texas has defeated the Owls in each of their last 3 meetings and all wins came by 7 or more points with an average victory margin of 15.7 points! The Mean Green are 8-2 ATS when they are playing with rest and facing a team with a losing record. When Rice is off a road game (in this case was massive upset too since they were a double digit dog) they have gone 4-12 ATS! 10* NORTH TEXAS | |||||||
11-23-19 | Oklahoma State -5.5 v. West Virginia | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Saturday 8* Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) @ West Virginia Mountaineers @ Noon ET - West Virginia is off an upset win at Kansas State but the Mountaineers were outgained by over 100 yards. That has set up nice line value to go against them in this spot. West Virginia entered last week's game against the Jayhawks having lost 5 straight games and a number of them were blowout losses. The Mountaineers average margin of defeat in those 5 losses was nearly 20 points. Oklahoma State enters this game having won 3 straight games and all 7 of their wins this season have come by 7 points or more. This one will too. The Cowboys are the better team and the much hotter team and they keep their momentum going here. While the defenses here rate about equal, the Cowboys rate a huge edge on offense and that will be the difference in this game. 8* OKLAHOMA STATE | |||||||
11-23-19 | Minnesota v. Northwestern +14.5 | 38-22 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 34 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #150 Saturday 8* Northwestern Wildcats (+) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Noon ET - Minnesota in a bad situation here for a myriad of reasons. They are suffering unbeaten letdown after their first loss of the season last week. So the Golden Gophers are off a huge game at Iowa and they also have another tough opponent, Wisconsin, on deck for their season finale at home next week. I could easily see the Gophers struggling a little mentally in this match-up with the Wildcats. Along the lines of struggling mentally, Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan is also questionable for this game after he got his bell rung late in the game against the Hawkeyes last week. The Wildcats have had an ugly season but a huge upset win over a ranked Gophers team would sure be nice way for Northwestern to close out the home portion of their schedule this season. In their home finale, I look for the Cats to step up big and I expect them to lose this by no more than a single touchdown and we're getting a pair of touchdowns here thanks to the market move. Yes it was a very bad UMass team that the Wildcats faced last week but that is also the type of win that helps to build confidence. Off that blowout win and playing at home for the 3rd straight week and 5th time in 6 weeks, the Cats will be in this game all the way! 8* NORTHWESTERN | |||||||
11-23-19 | Illinois v. Iowa -15 | 10-19 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #144 Saturday 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (-) vs Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - Iowa has a fantastic defense but a pedestrian offense. That makes it seem tough to lay big points with the Hawkeyes in a spot like this. However, Illinois is ripe for a beatdown. They have had some unbelievable good fortunate in wins versus Wisconsin and at Michigan State and now reality will set in after a 4-game winning streak that included wins over Purdue (without QB) and Big Ten bottom-feeder Rutgers. Note that prior to this streak the Illini had allowed 34 points or more in 4 straight games and an average of 40 points per game during that 4-game losing streak. Even though they had the miracle win at Michigan State in their most recent game, they did allow 34 points to the Spartans. That holds significance here because the Spartans, like the Hawkeyes, are known for struggling on offense but, just like so many other teams have done, Michigan State got to 34 against the Illini. So, about that Iowa defense....they are allowing an average of only 12.4 points per game. Keep in mind that includes games against some top Big Ten teams like Minnesota, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. I feel the Illini won't even get to 10 points here but even if they do, don't be surprised if the Hawkeyes have one of their best games of the season on offense as they take advantage of facing weaker competition here. The Illini have been so fortunate of late they didn't need the bye week. That is actually going to kill the mojo they had going. Home team wins this one by at least 21 in my opinion. 8* IOWA | |||||||
11-22-19 | Hornets +6.5 v. Wizards | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Friday 10* Top Play Charlotte Hornets (+) @ Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are what one could call a false favorite. What I mean by that is this: Washington is such a poor team that it is really hard to justify them being favored over anyone. Now certainly Charlotte has had its own share of struggles this season but they still have the better record in this match-up and the Hornets are catching the Wizards off an upset win over the Spurs. Washington is just 8-21 SU when coming off an outright upset win! The Wizards were 2 point dog against San Antonio but got the win and yet they were just 1-3 SU at home this season entering that game. The Hornets are very hungry here as they are off back to back losses both SU and ATS. On the season Charlotte has not had a 3-game ATS losing streak and I don't expect that to change here. In this divisional match-up the Hornets are going to battle hard and they are also 2-0 ATS this season when they enter a game off consecutive games in which they were held to 101 points or less. Their offensive production will see a big uptick here as the Wizards certainly are not known for defense. Charlotte has allowed 106 points or less in 3 of their last 4 games. Washington has allowed 121 points or more in 7 of its last 10 games. 10* CHARLOTTE | |||||||
11-21-19 | NC State +2 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 26-28 | Push | 0 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #111 Thursday 10* Top Play NC State Wolfpack (+) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ 8 ET - The Wolfpack have struggled recently but their defense looks healthier now than it has in recent games and also it was their secondary that was injury riddled. That means they match-up better with a run-heavy team like Georgia Tech than they would against teams that like to air it out. That being said, I like this match-up for NC State. Yes both teams have had tough seasons but the Wolfpack actually outgained Louisville last week and were simply done in by a 3-0 turnover deficit. As for Georgia Tech, they got smashed by Virginia Tech last week by a count of 45-0. The Yellow Jackets are getting outgained by nearly 165 yards per game in ACC action! The Wolfpack, on the other hand, actually have a positive yardage margin in ACC games this season! The road team has won 5 straight in this series and the Wolfpack need a win here to keep their bowl hopes alive. For the Yellow Jackets, their season is over and they certainly played like it last week too! More of the same expected here. 10* NC STATE | |||||||
11-21-19 | Duquesne v. Indiana State +7 | Top | 74-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #788 Thursday 10* Top Play Indiana State Sycamores (+) vs Duquesne Dukes @ 6:30 ET - Everyone is on the Dukes here so you know where my money is going to go. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the move and going with the Sycamores here. It stands to reason that everyone is loving laying the number here with a 3-0 Duquesne team against an 0-3 Indiana State team. However, lets not forget that the Sycamores have played a tougher schedule this season. Their most recent game was against a respectable MAC program, Ball State, and the Sycamores two prior games were against Dayton and Louisville! The Dukes have been battling it out with the likes of Princeton, Lamar, and Lipscomb. I feel that the markets aren't properly evaluating that aspect of this match-up and I am looking for Indiana State to view this tourney in the Bahamas as a new beginning. They'll immediately put that 0-3 start in the rear view mirror with full focus on this tournament. Keep in mind the Sycamores were a dog in all 3 of their games to begin this season while Duquesne was a favorite in all three of theirs. Also, both teams returned 4 starters this season. Look for this game to be a battle all the way to the final horn which means we've got great value with the generous points being offered here. 10* INDIANA STATE | |||||||
11-20-19 | Toledo v. Buffalo -8 | Top | 30-49 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #106 Wednesday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bulls (-) vs Toledo Rockets @ 7:30 ET - Both teams off disappointing losses but Toledo now has to go on the road after battling all the way back from a 28-7 deficit at home against Northern Illinois only to lose on a late field goal. Though mathematically alive in the MAC West race, the Rockets know the reality is that the loss to the Huskies essentially squashed those dreams. This is a very young team too and they have struggled often when facing adversity. I expect that to be the case again here. As for the Bulls, they are off a crazy loss to Kent State where everything improbable actually happened in the Golden Flashes late comeback from a 27-6 deficit. Now with a well-coached Buffalo team at home off a loss and having the much better defense in this match-up in this one, I am look for the Bulls to win in a rout. Buffalo ranks 9th in the nation on defense while Toledo ranks 116th! Also, the Rockets are on an 0-5 ATS run overall. Toledo is also 0-4 ATS on the road this season. Buffalo opened the season with a non-covering win over an FCS school but, at home, in FBS action, the Bulls have been red hot ever since as they are a perfect 3-0 ATS as a host against FBS schools this season. As you can see, triple perfect ATS support for backing the home team in this one. Lay the points with the host as they dominate this one with their strong pass-rushing ability on defense and their dynamic ground game on offense. The Bulls dictate the tempo in this one and control the clock in this game and win by double digits. 10* BUFFALO | |||||||
11-20-19 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. Georgia | Top | 78-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #695 Wednesday 10* Top Play Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+) @ Georgia Bulldogs @ 7 ET - The very first line on this one was a 3.5 and it is not surprising to see it go to 4.5 as Georgia has the home court edge here and defeated the Yellow Jackets by an average margin of 16 points per game the past two seasons. However, note that Georgia Tech simply shot awful in both of those games as they had 10 more shots from the field in each game and yet they lost the game by a double digit margin each time. This season will be different. I love the fact that both teams come in undefeated but the Bulldogs have played a very weak schedule whereas the Yellow Jackets already showed how their scoring punch and experience and veteran players are going to help lead the way this season. They rallied from a 15 point first half deficit and went on to win in OT as a 5-point dog at NC State to open the season. Then in their easy game they won with defense as they held Elon to just 41 points. Georgia has been a little spoiled as they have opened the season with 3 straight easy opponents and so the Bulldogs, unlike the Yellow Jackets, haven't had to work for many defensive stops. The Bulldogs are allowing an average of 75 points per game this season while the Jackets are holding foes to just 30% from the field in their first two games this season. I expect Georgia to be a much stronger team as the season goes on but early on they will struggle against tougher competition because they returned just 1 starter and are still adjusting to watch coach Tom Crean wants them to do. On the flip side, Georgia Tech coach Josh Pastner has an established group that returned 4 starters from last season's team. In an early season match-up, the edge goes to the Yellow Jackets in this one no matter the venue! 10* GEORGIA TECH | |||||||
11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -4 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Tuesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (-) vs Eastern Michigan Eagles @ 7:30 ET - The Huskies are off a 31-28 win at Toledo but Northern Illinois actually led that game huge before the Rockets rallied late. It was a tight win but the point is that had the Huskies been at home for that one I would have expected the blowout to go on for the full sixty minutes. Now here they are getting a rare home game as they have had a very home-heavy schedule thus far. Northern Illinois finishes the season with a pair of home games and I expect them to make the most of it. Eastern Michigan is off a huge win but it came against an Akron team that is the worst team out of all 130 teams in FBS! The Zips are simply dreadful this season. Prior to that win the Eagles had lost 4 of 5 games with the average margin of defeat being 16 points. These teams each struggle on offense but the Huskies are the better defense and have home field here and have won 11 straight games in this series. I look for the streak to reach a dozen games and I expect the victory margin to be double digits just as the Huskies two prior home wins were this season. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS | |||||||
11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - This is a neutral site game as it is being played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico. Considering the fact it is a neutral site and that Chiefs Andy Reid continues to be the worst late game manager in NFL history, I am happy to back the Chargers here. Kansas City lost at Tennessee last week partially because they have defensive breakdowns in critical moments but also because if Reid was smarter about play-calling to close out games the Titans would not have even had the ball to have a chance to win the game. Reid has had issues with this since his days in Philadelphia and that is part of the reason the Eagles finally won a Super Bowl AFTER he was shown the door! The point I am making here though is that it is hard to lay points with him unless it is a game that is destined to be an absolute blowout and I certainly don't see that being the case here. Everyone is on Kansas City here and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side. Chargers QB Rivers is off a rare poor game and he'll be ready to bounce back here. At the same time, this is a Chiefs defense that gave up over 200 yards on the ground last week and that means LA can do some damage here on the ground which will further open up things for Rivers to attack downfield through the air. Under head coach Anthony Lynn, the Chargers are 9-2 ATS when facing a team off an outright upset loss. That system is in play here as the Chiefs lost outright as a 6 point favorite over the Titans last week. We are getting close to the stretch run of the season and note the following stat when Kansas City is playing in games 9 through 12 of a season. When KC has a winning record and is favored over a team that is coming off an away game, the Chiefs have gone 1-8 ATS! Not only where the Chargers at Oakland last week, their game was on Thursday (while KC played on Sunday at Tennessee) so LA does have a rest edge for this game also. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | |||||||
11-18-19 | Cavs +2.5 v. Knicks | Top | 105-123 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #557 Monday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) @ New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - Yes the Cavaliers are in a back to back spot here but they got their doors blown off by the 76ers yesterday. When you're down 31 points in the 3rd quarter of a game you start resting guys the rest of the way and, of course, that is what Cleveland did yesterday. That means no one played more than 28 minutes in yesterday's loss and also the Cavs did have two days off prior to yesterday's game. In other words, they will be ready to go here and, keep in mind, they actually took more shots from the field than the 76ers did yesterday and also had more shots from the free throw line. So what happened? It was simply one of those nights (and we had Philly right here in this spot yesterday) because the 76ers were ultra hungry and everything was falling for them. For the Cavs, they couldn't get shots to fall and so it was a blowout loss. But, keep in mind, Cleveland had been playing a little better and they will respond here tonight after that ugly loss. I love grabbing the points and going against bad teams and this the case here with the Knicks. Not only is New York 3-10 on the season, they are off a very disheartening loss to the Hornets in their most recent game as New Orleans hit the game-winning three with just a couple seconds left. New York had really let that game get away from them and I fully expect a similar result tonight. 10* CLEVELAND | |||||||
11-18-19 | Ducks +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Puck Line Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #35 Monday 10* Top Play Anaheim Ducks Puck Line +1.5 goals @ Washington Capitals @ 7:05 ET - The Capitals are off to a fantastic start this season but this is the perfect spot to fade them. Not only are the Caps off a big road win at Boston in the shootout Saturday, they are now back home where they have surprisingly played worse than on the road this season. Washington has won just 5 of their 10 home games this season. Also, the Capitals have seen 5 of their last 8 wins come by just a single goal. That said, I really like the value being offered here with the Ducks at +1.5 goals. If you had played against the Caps with a line of +1.5 in each of Washington's last 11 games you would have won 8 bets and lost just 3. Anaheim enters this game with some momentum after knocking off the 2019 Stanley Cup champs in St Louis. Now they look to do the same with the 2018 Stanley Cup champs in Washington. In 21 games this season the Ducks have only lost a game by a multiple goal margin 6 times. That means if you had Anaheim at +1.5 goals all season long you've won 71% of the time. I like the value here with only a -130 price range on the Ducks here given the strong odds of a loss coming by only 1 goal. Anaheim has a great shot at the upset here and I like the added insurance of the +1.5 goals given all of the above factors. In the past two weeks Washington has only 1 win by more than a single goal. 10* ANAHEIM +1.5 goals Puck Line | |||||||
11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams -6 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Rams (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 8:20 ET - The Rams are off a loss but simply came out of their bye week with their timing off and they delivered a dud at Pittsburgh. From a yardage standpoint the teams were nearly even but Los Angeles was done in by turnovers. While LA was on the road last week, the Bears were at home and they got the win over the Lions. However, Chicago was outgained in that game and the Bears are simply not a very good football team right now. This week Chicago now goes on the road and I feel we've got great value here with the Rams at home. LA of course is much better than they showed last week plus they are at home and also playing this game with revenge from last year's last season loss that the Bears handed Los Angeles. That was just the 2nd loss of the Rams season last year and also came on Sunday night. LA, undoubtedly, has not forgotten and gets payback under the lights tonight. The Bears defense has not been as strong as it was last season, particularly against the pass. The strength of the Rams offense is the passing game. Good match-up for LA here in that regard. As for Chicago's offense, they rank among the worst in the league. Coming back to the Bears pass defense too, note that they allowed over 275 passing yards to a back-up QB in last week's fortunate win. In terms of system support here, Chicago entered this season on an 0-8 ATS run when on the road in a non-divisional game as a dog of 7 or less points facing a team that is off an upset loss as a favorite. That system fits here with the Rams off the loss as a 4-point fave at Pittsburgh last week. Including playoff games too, LA is on a 10-4 ATS run extending back to the final two games of last year's regular season. Once again, the Rams will bounce back with a cover after an ATS loss last week. 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS | |||||||
11-17-19 | Patriots v. Eagles +4 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #470 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Both teams enter this week off a bye week last week. First off I am going to talk about the always good but always over-hyped Patriots. While it is true that New England blew out Pittsburgh in Week 1 of this season lets talk about what has happened since then. The Patriots have played 8 games since then and 6 of them were wins by 14 points or more. The other two were games the Pats lost ATS. More on the latter in the moment but lets first talk about all those "tough" teams that New England faced in those 6 big wins. Here is their current record of each of the teams they faced week by week: 2-7, 2-7, 1-8, 2-8, 1-8, 3-6. Noticing a pattern here? The Pats took care of business a lot but they faced trash a lot! So how about those other two games? The Patriots barely got by the Bills and did NOT cover and then two weeks ago New England got absolutely dominated by the Ravens. Notice this pattern? When Mr Brady and Mr Belichick have to step up and face a formidable opponent things suddenly change. The Eagles beat a MUCH tougher Patriots team to win the Super Bowl in Feb of 2018 and so this Pats team is much more susceptible to what the Eagles bring to the table here and this game is NOT at a neutral site. The Philadelphia schedule has been much tougher than the Patriots schedule has been. The Eagles have faced 5 tough teams in their last 6 games and 4 of those teams have a combined record of 26-12 on the season! The Eagles run defense ranks among the best in the NFL and the Patriots, despite facing a mostly cupcake schedule, rank in the bottom 3rd of the NFL for running the ball. That said, when a team struggles to run the ball their offense of course becomes more predictable and you know The Linc is going to be rocking for this game and I expect the Philly defense to bring a huge game here. This is just the 2nd home game the Eagles have had in the past 6 weeks! Look for the Patriots to drop to 0-3 ATS on the season when they are on the road and facing a team with a winning record. The Eagles are 3-1 SU at home this season and many will be looking for the Pats to bounce back here after that ugly loss at Baltimore two weeks ago. However, Philadelphia is off B2B wins and has moved back into a first-place tie in the NFC East so they are "feeling it" again and check out the following stat. The Eagles are 8-0 ATS when off a SU win and facing a non-divisional foe with a winning percentage of .667 or greater that is off a SU/ATS loss. That PERFECT system fits here. Also, under head coach Doug Pederson, the Eagles are 10-3 ATS when they enter a game with a winning record on the season and they are an underdog against a non-divisional foe. Also, under Pederson, the Eagles are 9-3 ATS when they enter a game off B2B SU/ATS wins. In games 9 through 12 of a season, Philly is 10-2 ATS when off a SU/ATS win and facing a team that is off an outright upset loss as a favorite. New England, in regular season games, is now on an 0-5 ATS streak when they are on the road and facing a team that has a .500 record or better. The Eagles should win this outright but I am happy to grab the points as added insurance here. 10* PHILADELPHIA | |||||||
11-17-19 | 76ers -6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-95 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #545 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 3:05 ET - The 76ers are healthy and they are angry after a 2nd straight loss, this one in OT, on Friday. The Cavaliers are struggling this season and are not healthy as Larry Nance exited their most recent game on Thursday in the 4th quarter. He could be limited here on Sunday, if he even plays. Philadelphia is desperate to get back on track as they have lost 5 of their last 7 games after beginning the season a perfect 5-0. The Sixers do not play again until Wednesday when they begin a 3-game homestand. In other words, the last thing Philly wants is to go into that homestand on a 3-game losing streak. They are going hard here and with two off days coming up they also won't hold back here and I see them winning this game by a double digit margin. The Cavaliers average margin of defeat this season is 10 points per game and I am expecting this defeat to come by at least a dozen. This one is all about the situational value and if the Cavs do get down big they will likely "pack it in" late in the game too and save it for a game at New York against the Knicks tomorrow night. Much better situation here and health factor for the road team in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA | |||||||
11-17-19 | Cowboys v. Lions +7.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #452 Saturday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 1 ET - Lions back-up QB Driskel actually played quite well in last week's loss at Chicago. In fact, Detroit outgained Chicago significantly in the loss and Driskel threw for 269 yards. The Cowboys are also off a loss last week as they fell short against the Vikings. Dallas, of course, would love to right the ship on the road here but the Cowboys already have lost on the road to a team like the Jets. Also, when Dallas lost to the Saints in New Orleans earlier this season, NO wasn't playing that well at the times as they had just recently lost Brees to injury at that point. As you can see, I am not that impressed with a Dallas team that had a chance to get a stranglehold on the NFC East division but has proven time and time again that they are not ready to make the jump to being an elite team. Again, the Cowboys now face a road test in a game they are expected to win but we have seen how these have gone before. The line on this game opened at less than a TD but has now risen to as high as a 7.5 as of early gameday morning and let us not forget that Dallas also has a major road test with the 8-1 Patriots on deck. Certainly, the Cowboys could overlook a 3-5-1 Lions team. Solid system here favors the underdog as Detroit entered this season 11-1 ATS when facing a non-division opponent off an outright upset loss as a favorite. That system fits here as the Cowboys were favored by 3 over the Vikings last week but lost outright. Dallas is 1-2 both SU and ATS in their last 3 road games. Perhaps they do notch the SU win here but I fully expect it to be by 7 points or less if that is the case. That said, the Lions have a great shot at the outright upset here and, of course, an even greater shot at getting at least a cover. 8* DETROIT | |||||||
11-16-19 | LSU v. Ole Miss +22 | Top | 58-37 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #402 Saturday 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) vs LSU Tigers @ 7 ET - LSU is simply over-valued here and it is a great spot to fade them after their huge win at Alabama last week. Keep in mind, the Tigers were on the road at Vandy this season and were favored by 24 points in this game. In other words, this line today is basically saying that Ole Miss is just as bad of a team as 2-7 Vanderbilt and that couldn't be further from the truth. In fact, the Rebels beat the Commodores 31-7 earlier this season. I am confident that, especially because they are at home and especially because they catch LSU off such a huge win, Ole Miss is absolutely going to hang around in this game for all 4 quarters. Keep in mind, the Rebels ugliest loss this season was by 28 points and that was at Alabama. One could argue that means LSU should win this game by a similar margin of course. However, note that the Rebels other 5 losses have come by an average margin of defeat of just 7.4 points. The loss to Alabama was the only time a game "got away" from Ole Miss. Since they are at home for this one, and catching LSU in a flat spot, look for this one to play out much differently than the one against the Crimson Tide did. The Tigers have failed to cover 10 of the last 12 times they were off an outright upset win on the road and that is the case here after LSU's win at Alabama as a dog last week. After starting the season 2-1, Mississippi has since gone 2-5. However, they are a viewing today's game as a huge opportunity to make some headlines for sure and note the following: Rebels, when entering a game after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games, have gone 3-1 ATS and SU. Now of course an upset would be a reach here but I do expect the Rebels to lose this game by only 1 or two scores. They're highly motivated and hang tough in this one all the way. 10* OLE MISS | |||||||
11-16-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Creighton -8 | Top | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #796 Saturday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays (-) vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ 6 ET - The Bluejays are at home off a loss at Michigan and that was a game that Creighton led at halftime. Louisiana Tech comes from the much weaker conference in this match-up, Conference USA, and the Bulldogs are 2-0 but have not been tested at all. This is going to be a huge test to say the least and it is not easy to play at Creighton where the Bluejays generally show an opponent what is like to be on the wrong end of a game where it is "raining threes". That said, and with this line dropping from an 11 down to an 8, I am backing Creighton big in this one. While the Bluejays play in the tough Big East, Louisiana Tech plays in the CUSA where teams like UTSA are considering among the top teams. There is a talent gap between these programs and the situation is perfect with the Bluejays at home off a loss in a game they let get away from them and the Bulldogs off back to back easy wins but having played light competition. Louisiana Tech gets a significant "reality check" here and the Bluejays answer the "wake up call" after their disappointing loss at Michigan. The home team by double digits here. 10* CREIGHTON | |||||||
11-16-19 | Michigan State +14 v. Michigan | 10-44 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #387 Saturday 8* Michigan State Spartans (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ Noon ET - Last season Michigan State got rolled at home in this match-up in a non-covering loss. However, the Spartans entered that one on a 10-0 ATS run in this series. In 2 of the last 3 meetings prior to last season Michigan State pulled the outright upset. The Spartans are very angry here after their historic collapse at home last week. They had Illinois beat and done for the day until a late TD right at the end of the first half gave the Illini unexpected life. To that point Illinois had managed scoring only 3 points. It is not a valid excuse for the Spartans but it happened and the game played out completely different than it would have if that play had not happened. Momentum is huge in football and it completely skewed the results of that game last week and has led to line value here as everyone is now very anti-Spartan. The fact is that Michigan State is always up for this rivalry game and they'll be ready to go here and their defense, last week notwithstanding, is good enough to keep them in this game all the way. Michigan is off a bye week which followed a blowout win at Maryland. Huge edge for the Spartans here, right? Actually they got blasted at Wisconsin earlier this season and that was coming off a bye week. Now of the course I am not saying the Spartans are the Badgers and also Big Blue is at home for this game but what I am saying is this...that ugly loss in Madison dropped the Wolverines to 1-7 ATS when coming off a bye week. I expect the Wolverines to find a way to win this game but I expect Michigan wins it by just a single score. 8* MICHIGAN STATE | |||||||
11-15-19 | Spurs +3.5 v. Magic | Top | 109-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #515 Friday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (+) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The Magic are off a 15 point Wednesday versus Philadelphia while the Spurs are off a 15 point loss the same night at Minnesota. However, Orlando actually trailed going to the 4th quarter of that game. How much will the Magic have left in the tank after that huge effort? As for San Antonio, they are outscored by 24 points from three point land. In other words, inside the arc the Spurs WON the game by NINE points. After shooting just 3 of 17 from the arc Wednesday and getting beat by the three-ball, SA comes into this game extra hungry as they want to put an end to a 3-game losing streak. That said, any points we are offered here is simply added value as I really do expect the Spurs to win outright and this line has moved from a 1 to a 3.5 as of early game day morning. Excellent value with the road dog here. I'll grab the points as the Spurs struggles are likely to end here and the Magic (just 4-7 on the season) are getting a little too much respect here after beating a Sixers team that is having some growing pains right now. In other words, that victory over the 76ers is not as impressive as it would seem on the surface. 10* SAN ANTONIO | |||||||
11-15-19 | Louisiana Tech +6.5 v. Marshall | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #315 Friday 10* Top Play Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+) @ Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7 ET - Lets talk about injuries and suspensions first because that is a key reason that this line has been driven from -2 to a -6.5 as of early game day morning. First off the Bulldogs are without a safety (James Jackson) but the Thundering Herd are without one (Brandon Drayton) too. As for the WR spot, yes I know that Adrian Hardy is Louisiana Tech's "big name" guy and he is suspended for this game but when you look at the Bulldogs statistically, they have a group of wide receivers all in the same range of total yards as Hardy PLUS with a lot more touchdowns too. Hardy is not as big of a loss as people think and, keep in mind, Marshall lost their starting slot wide receiver, Artie Henry, early in the season. So the big glaring one, and main driver of this line, is the suspension of QB J'Mar Smith for La Tech. I am here to tell you that the Bulldogs have capable back-ups and the right guy, even if it is more than one QB that sees action here, will be who gets the majority of playing time here and they are NOT going up against some elite defense either. Louisiana Tech has been fantastic this season and a lot of it has to do with their system on offense. In other words, others can step in and have better functionality with the offense than you would think. The Bulldogs are having a great season that side of the ball and their defense is roughly equal with that of the Thundering Herd. That said, I have no hesitation in going contrarian here and backing the big dog and fading the masses! The Bulldogs are averaging a dozen points more per game than Marshall this season. I am aware that La Tech has faced a weak schedule this season but the Thundering Herd haven't exactly faced a powerhouse docket this season either. Also, the Bulldogs have covered 15 of last 20 as a road dog while the Thundering Herd have covered just 5 of their last 21 when favored in a Conference USA clash. 10* LOUISIANA TECH | |||||||
11-14-19 | Buffalo v. Kent State +6 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #312 Thursday 10* Top Play Kent State Golden Flashes (+) vs Buffalo Bulls @ 7 ET - The markets are all over Buffalo here but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing Kent State. Yes the Bulls have won 3 straight games and the Golden Flashes have lost 3 straight games. However, Kent State just was on the road at Toledo a little over a week ago and they took the Rockets to the wire and they were a 7 point dog in that game. There is not a huge difference between Toledo and Buffalo in terms of their level of play within the MAC and the Golden Flashes lost by just two points to the Rockets. Yet now, after this line opened up at a 3, it has been driven all the way up to a 6 even though Kent State is at home for this one and playing with revenge from an embarrassing loss to the Bulls last season. Also, this is just the 2nd home game for the Golden Flashes since late September. They're going to want to make the most of this! That said, Kent State is going to fight all the way to the final gun in this one. The Golden Flashes last 3 losses have come by an average margin of just 5 points per game. They have been "right there" in each game and this time I see them getting over the hump and getting the win. Kent State is a much more competitive team than they've been in the past and yet the still carry that "negative perception" with the marketplace from years of ugliness. They will fight tooth and nail in this game and an outright upset would not surprise but I am grabbing the points as added insurance. Note that Bulls are off a big road win that preceded their bye week and they also had a big road win against a dreadful Akron team. However, prior to that they started the season 0-3 on the road with all 3 losses by a double digit margin. The Golden Flashes are in this one all the way. 10* KENT STATE | |||||||
11-14-19 | Penn State +1 v. Georgetown | Top | 81-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #655 Thursday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) @ Goergetown Hoyas @ 6:30 ET - Both teams have played weak foes early this season so the main basis of this play is that each team came into this season with 4 returning starters and an already established identity. That team identity for each has continued early this season and the biggest key for me is that the Hoyas simply don't play very well in their own end. It was an issue last season too with too many points allowed per game. That is why, though many may look at this and think it is easy to grab the home team just to win the game, the fact is the line is set this way for a reason. Penn State is the better team and that negates the Georgetown homecourt edge. I also like the fact that turnovers tend to plague the Hoyas and this is particularly true in late game situations. They are the sloppier team here and I'll take Chambers' Nitanny Lions over Ewing's Hoyas in this one. The better coached, more well-structured team gets the big road win in an early season match-up when things have a tendency to still be a little "helter skelter" for teams and an experienced structured team is the one that finds the way to win a game like this. 10* PENN STATE | |||||||
11-14-19 | Heat v. Cavs +4.5 | Top | 108-97 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #502 Thursday 10* Top Play Cleveland Cavaliers (+) vs Miami Heat @ 6:05 ET - The Cavaliers are off a tough 1-point loss at Philadelphia but a win there would have been their third in a row. Cleveland is playing very competitive basketball right now and very hungry and I like the Cavs here at home to get the upset win. We'll grab the points as added insurance but the Heat could struggle here. They continue to be banged up and missing guys or guys trying to play through injuries. Give credit to Miami as they are off to a solid start this season but they are still just 3-3 on the road and the Cavaliers are 2-2 at home. In other words this is a great home dog spot considering the way the Cavs are playing right now and the fact they are off a 1-point loss that will add to the hunger factor here. Also, Miami may overlook them as the Heat got the 4-0 season sweep of Cleveland last season. But overlooking them will prove to be detrimental as all of Miami's injuries catch up with them here. 10* CLEVELAND | |||||||
11-13-19 | Northern Illinois +2.5 v. Toledo | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #307 Wednesday 10* Top Play Northern Illinois Huskies (+) @ Toledo Rockets @ 8 ET - As long-time followers know, I tend to be a contrarian when it comes to handicapping games. That said, why in the world would a 6-3 Toledo be such a small favorite at home against a 3-6 Northern Illinois team? Exactly! Give me the underdog Huskies here while most of the world will likely be jumping on the Rockets! Now, I am never a contrarian without some reasoning of course and Northern Illinois does need to win out to be bowl eligible. They still have that going for them and, in the process, they'd love to hurt Toledo's chances of winning the MAC West. From a statistical standpoint the Rockets certainly have the better defense but note that defense tends to win football games this time of year and the Huskies have the much better defense. Based on yardage allowed Toledo ranks #117 out 130 teams while Northern Illinois ranks a much stronger 51st on defense. The Huskies have won 7 of the last 9 meetings between these teams and I expect another victory here on the road and will grab the couple points being offered. We might start to see some +3 on this one but I am happy enough already at the +2.5 that is prevalent right now. 10* NORTHERN ILLINOIS | |||||||
11-13-19 | LSU v. VCU -2.5 | Top | 82-84 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #602 Wednesday 10* Top Play Virginia Commonwealth Rams (-) vs LSU Tigers @ 6 ET - Tigers head coach Will Wade and Rams coach Mike Rhoades were both assistant coaches for Virginia Commonwealth when they made that huge tournament run earlier in this decade. The difference now is that Wade spurned VCU in search of greener pastures while Rhoades stayed put and has proclaimed himself a VCU guy all the way. To say the Rams want this game badly is the understatement of the year. That is why, though LSU had a great season last year and are currently ranked and are an underdog in this match-up, I am going contrarian and grabbing the other side here as I expect the Rams to roll at home. For one thing the motivation factor is huge here and there are VCU players still on the roster that were recruited by Wade during his time here. In addition to motivation. Note that the Rams return 4 starters while LSU returns just two starters this season. Also, the Rams are known for defense and creating turnovers and the Tigers only game this season thus far saw them turn the ball over too much and they were quite unimpressive in their non-covering win over Bowling Green. Another edge for Virginia Commonwealth here is that they have played two games already. Though they have covered neither they did notch the win in each and I feel that, particularly in the win over North Texas this past week, VCU was already looking ahead to this game. This is a monster game for them and they will prove that on the floor by winning this game by double digits. 10* VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (VCU) | |||||||
11-12-19 | Thunder +3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 85-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #563 Tuesday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Pacers have been without Victor Oladipo since the season started. Indiana also has seen Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb also miss significant time with injuries (and both listed as questionable for this contest). So, how have the Pacers (winners of 6 of their last 7) done it? It has had a lot to do with an easy schedule! That is the key to why I like the Thunder in this match-up. Don't let the short line fool you. It looks so easy, of course, to take Indiana laying about 3 points at home, doesn't it? After all, Oklahoma City is 0-3 on the road this season and the Pacers are 4-1 at home on the season. Must be some kind of major "mistake" by the odds makers here, right? Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by those making the lines. The fact is that OKC has played a tougher schedule this season and they enter this game hungry off a 2 point home loss to a strong Bucks team on Saturday. In other words, don't be surprised when the Thunder come out strong here and get the outright upset win. I am grabbing the points for added "insurance" in this one. This is a contrarian play and that is a big part of my handicapping repertoire and lets look to cash again here! 10* OKLAHOMA CITY | |||||||
11-12-19 | Western Michigan +2 v. Ohio | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #303 Tuesday 10* Top Play Western Michigan Broncos (+) @ Ohio University Bobcats @ 6:30 ET - With Ohio U having home field it is is not a huge surprise that the betting markets have flipped the favorite on this one. Western Michigan opened up as the favorite in this one and now they are the dog. I love fading this type of a line move and especially when I have a strong situation favoring our side that many might be overlooking. The Bobcats didn't just beat the Broncos last season...they blasted them. Ohio U won that game 59-14 despite having a yardage edge of only 150 yards. What happened was a turnover-filled first half for Western Michigan that led to a 45-0 deficit. Now it is payback time here and, keep in mind, that ugly loss featured the Broncos as the host. That said, they would love nothing more than to return the favor tonight by rolling the Bobcats at Athens, OH with the ESPN2 cameras rolling for this Tuesday night match-up. Statistically the Broncos are the better team on both sides of the ball and, though 0-4 SU and ATS on the season in road games, do you think the odds makers were unaware of that when they made them the favorite here! Don't be fooled by the line move here, the road team gets it done as the Bobcats drop to 2-8 ATS on the season with another loss here. 10* WESTERN MICHIGAN | |||||||
11-12-19 | Creighton +5 v. Michigan | Top | 69-79 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #751 Tuesday 10* Top Play Creighton Bluejays @ Michigan Wolverines @ 6:30 ET - Of course the Wolverines have the home court edge here and they also have a size edge. However, in my mind those are the only edges they have here and it won't be enough for Michigan. I am expecting Creighton to pull of the upset in this one but am grabbing the points for "insurance". The Wolverines are going through a transition in more ways than one this season. They lost a fantastic head coach in John Beilein and now have Juwan Howard at the helm and he brought in two new assistants as well. Additionally, Howard's team lost a ton of talent and big scorers from last seasons team. While they do have a size edge here they did not take good care of the ball in their non-covering win over Appalachian State to open the season last week. A great way to beat size is to create turnovers and then a run and gun team like Creighton can kill you from outside with its sharp-shooters in transition. The Bluejays are already dialed in from downtown as they have made 12 of 25 three pointers in their season-opening win last week. Keep in mind that 3-point shooting also results in longer caroms off the rim when they do miss and that further negates the inside edge that Michigan has in this match-up. I like Creighton a lot here with their strong experience edge and system edge as Bluejays head coach Greg McDermott has been the head coach here for this entire decade. 10* CREIGHTON | |||||||
11-11-19 | Seahawks +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #273 Monday 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - The Seahawks SU record in primetime games under Pete Carroll is an incredible 27-5 with one tie. They have also won 80% of their Monday night games with Carroll as they've been victorious in eight of ten. Of course it looks enticing to back the undefeated 49ers and lay less than a TD but in typical contrarian fashion I am grabbing the points here. I feel Seattle has a great shot at the upset here and that means great value in this one. Though the Seahawks kicker has been less than stellar this season, note that the San Francisco kicking situation could be even worse off here as they have injury concerns. In a game projected to be a rather tight back and forth divisional battle, don't be surprised if the kicking game plays a role here and Seattle actually holds the edge here based on the Robbie Gould injury situation as he has been downgraded to doubtful for this one. Keep in mind, other than the Niners huge win over the Panthers two weeks ago, their other 3 games since mid-October have seen them score an average of just 19 points per game. San Francisco is 6-13 ATS as a home favorite while the Seahawks enter this game having covered 5 in a row as a divisional road dog! In fact, Seattle enters this game with a perfect 4-0 SU record on the road this season too! The Seahawks are scoring an average of 28.5 points per game away from home this season. Seattle's D had a poor game last week but clearly they were looking ahead to this game. Also, the Seahawks strength on D is their rushing defense and the Niners strength on offense is the ground game so this one sets up well for the Seattle D to have a bounce back game in a key divisional showdown. The Seahawks can move within a half game of the division lead by winning this game and they have a bye on deck so they're definitely going the full sixty in this game. Great underdog value in this one. 10* SEATTLE | |||||||
11-11-19 | Grizzlies +11 v. Spurs | Top | 113-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Monday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) @ San Antonio Spurs @ 7:35 ET - Both teams off ugly losses but part of the reason that the Grizzlies got blasted was that they were in the 2nd night of a back to back. Memphis made the decision NOT to play their leading scorer Ja Morant AND also Brandon Clarke (back) did not play. Though Clarke's back has been an ongoing issue I really believe his absence was more of a maintenance thing than anything else and so I expect him back tonight even though he is listed as questionable. Of course Morant will for sure be back in action tonight. This Spurs team is nothing like the San Antonio teams of the past and for them to be favored by double digits here is a little aggressive in my opinion. They just haven't been consistent on the defensive end and LaMarcus Aldridge is coming off a horrible game. Again, both teams off ugly losses but the Spurs had just as many three pointers as Boston in San Antonio's Saturday loss. As for Memphis, they saw red hot Dallas have 6 more threes than them (18 points) in the 16 point loss. This is a stat I like to look at as sometimes hot 3 point shooting does teams in. Grizzlies won the rest of the game by 2 points even being down 2 players. The Spurs lost their game by 20 points inside the arc. Something to think about for sure and I don't see Memphis losing this game by anything more than single digits. I look for a hard-fought game with plenty of intensity from the Grizzlies as well. 10* MEMPHIS | |||||||
11-11-19 | Drake +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 59-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #731 Monday 10* Top Play Drake Bulldogs (+) @ Cincinnati Bearcats @ 7 ET - Even though the Bulldogs will be without Tremell Murhpy this season, this is still a solid Missouri Valley team that is capable of hanging around withing single digits of the Bearcats in this one. Yes, Drake faced an out-classed foe in their season opener but the fact they knocked down 17 of 29 three pointers is a good sign that the Bulldogs shooters are dialed in. Cincinnati is off an opening loss to Ohio State so they faced much tougher competition and that had a little something to do with their 4 of 21 shooting performance from 3-point land. However, the Bearcats struggles with the outside shot could loom large here because you know the Bulldogs are likely to bring an intense effort here with a rare shot at knocking off a "top tier" team. Drake wants to make the most of this opportunity while the Bearcats are simply looking at this game as a "win and move on to bigger things" type of game. Look for the scrappy Bulldogs to keep this one much closer than many are expecting. The Bulldogs are 15-3 ATS off a game in which they were a home favorite. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS when off a road loss. 10* DRAKE | |||||||
11-10-19 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cowboys | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday 8* Minnesota Vikings (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Nice set up here for a defensive-minded road dog. The Vikings are off a tough loss at Kansas City as they lost on a 44 yard field goal as time expired. Minnesota is on regular rest here while the Cowboys are on short rest. Even though Dallas is at home for this one, keep in mind they were in East Rutherford, NJ on Monday night taking on the Giants. That was not only a divisional win for the Cowboys, it also was more of a hard fought win than what the final score would indicate as it was a 1-point game heading to the 4th quarter. One thing I like about fading Dallas here is that they have truly struggled outside the division against better teams. Keep in mind the only two times they've really been tested in a non-divisional game this season they lost at New Orleans and then followed that up by losing at home to the Packers. In terms of some ATS support here. Dallas, is 2-7 ATS in their first game after facing the Giants. Also, the Cowboys are 0-7 ATS when off a Monday night game. Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys are 2-10 ATS when they are favored off a divisional game and facing a team with a winning record. The Cowboys beat MIke Zimmer and his Vikings in Minnesota in 2016 in their most recent meeting. In games 9 through 12 of a season, when the Vikings are off a SU loss and playing with revenge they are 10-2 ATS! Entering this season the Vikings under Mike Zimmer were also 11-2 ATS when facing an opponent off a double digit ATS cover. Before their tight loss at KC last week, the Vikes had won 4 straight games all by double digits! 8* MINNESOTA | |||||||
11-10-19 | Flyers +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Puck Line Punisher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #11 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Puck Line +1.5 goals -125 @ Boston Bruins @ 7:05 ET - The Bruins are banged up and struggling. Yes the Flyers are in a back to back spot right now but they're riding the momentum of another win last night and they have a pair of off days on deck after this one. Plus Philadelphia used Brian Elliott between the pipes last night and that means #1 goalie Carter Hart gets the start here. The Bruins #1 goalie Tuukka Rask is struggling so Boston will likely go with their #2 netminder Jaroslav Halak. So by taking the Flyers at +1.5 goals we also get added value here should this game be decided by a single goal. A one-goal game would not surprise here considering that 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games have been tied at the end of regulation! Certainly the Bruins have a potent offense and are looking to bounce back but the best way to stifle a strong offense is a goalie that is capable of putting up a stone wall when he is "on" and Carter Hart is in another one of his "on" cycles for the Flyers. He has won his last 3 starts and is ready to go here. Again, the Bruins a little dinged up and though their most recent win was by a 2-goal margin over Pittsburgh they actually trailed that game 4-3 in the 3rd and it was a crazy finish that resulted in it ending 6-4. Plus, since that time, Boston has lost two straight games. The Flyers have a great shot at the upset here and if they do fall short don't be surprised if it is by just a single goal and that puts us into the win column here. Note that in the last 7 meetings between these teams the road team has had ONE loss that came by more than single goal. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 goals | |||||||
11-10-19 | Hornets v. 76ers -13.5 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #538 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Charlotte Hornets @ 6:05 ET - The 76ers are off 3 straight losses but all were on the road and this included time without Joel Embiid too. Yes, Ben Simmons is out now but they were without him at Denver on Friday and still led that game by 21 points in the 4th quarter and yet lost. So what happens now? The fired up Sixers are back at home and hosting a Hornets team that they are fully capable of also building a 21-point lead against. The difference is that Charlotte is not Denver and plus this game is at Philly. Look for the 76ers to build that huge lead and then never take the foot off their gas here. Adding to the value is that the Hornets are in a back to back here as they were home against New Orleans last night. It was yet another loss too last night for a bad Charlotte team and the 76ers are in need of taking a team behind the woodshed for a beating. The Hornets should provide the perfect punching bag. This is just the 3rd home game of the season for the Sixers. They won the first two games by an average margin of 18 points per game. I look for this one to be decided by close to 20 points as well. 10* PHILADELPHIA | |||||||
11-10-19 | Winnipeg +6 v. Calgary | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Playoff Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #823 Sunday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 4:30 ET - Revenge for the Blue Bombers after last year's Western Division Final propelled the Stamps to the Grey Cup. I like the fact that Winnipeg is the better team on both side of the ball when it comes to the ground game. The Blue Bombers have a very strong rushing attack and also are adept at stopping the run. I know the Stampeders are a great passing team but Winnipeg can move the ball down the field through the air in a hurry too. Also, the Stamps have some injury issues at wide receiver. The Blue Bombers also got a boost with the return of Zach Collaros at QB in the final week of the regular season. Note that he has a personal 3-game winning streak when facing Calgary. Also, Winnipeg still has a "running QB" option too since they also have Chris Streveler and he saw plenty of action this season during the time Collaros was out. I love having the points here too because after about 3 to 6 inches of snow fell last night and this morning the forecast here is temperatures to remain right around 12 degrees fahrenheit or -11 celsius during this game. It is going to be another all-out war between these all-too familiar foes and note that 14 of Calgary's 18 games this season (including 7 in a row entering the playoffs) have been decided by 7 or less points! The Blue Bombers went 6-1 ATS this season as an underdog. The Stampeders went 2-11 ATS this season as a favorite. 10* WINNIPEG | |||||||
11-10-19 | Rams v. Steelers +4.5 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #270 Sunday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) vs Los Angeles Rams @ 4:25 ET - Great spot for a home dog here. So far the teams that have played in London this season, entering this week, have gone 0-4 ATS. Yes, even though those teams get a bye week after the trip to London it still seems to take a lot out of them. Not only have they gone 0-4 ATS they have also gone 0-4 SU with the average margin of defeat being 18 points! Now I am not saying that the Steelers are going to steamroll the Rams just because of those numbers but what I am saying is that Pittsburgh is going to be a very tough home dog in this spot and I expect the Rams to be less than 100% here just like the Bears, Raiders, Buccaneers and Panthers were after their bye week that followed their London trips. The Steelers have plenty of momentum here as they have won 3 straight games and 4 of their last 5. In fact, since a season opening loss to the Patriots, Pittsburgh has not been blown out in any of their games. After the embarrassing loss at New England, the Steelers have gone 4-3 and the 3 losses have come by an average of 3 points with no margin of defeat more than 4 points. You can see why I am liking the points here! Also, Los Angeles enters this game off back to back blowout wins but those victories came against Atlanta and Cincinnati. Those two teams have a combined ONE win between them this season. That is note worthy here because, prior to that, the Rams had lost 3 straight games (2 of the games against tougher competition) and Pittsburgh is certainly no slouch. The Steelers have covered 14 of last 18 as a home dog and 5 of last 6 in non-conference games. 10* PITTSBURGH | |||||||
11-10-19 | Delaware +3 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 91-79 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #719 Sunday 10* Top Play Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (+) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 3:30 ET @ Silver Spurs Arena in Kissimmee, FL - The Roadrunners were a very streaky team last season. They have lost their first 3 games this season, including back to back games here in the Sunshine Slam and I don't see them turning it around here playing a 3rd game in 3 days. Granted, Delaware is in the same situation in terms of 3 games in 3 days but they are 3-0 on the season and really "feeling it" right now. Conversely, UTSA came into this season knowing their backcourt of Jackson and Wallace were going to be the key. Both have logged heavy minutes in each game the past two days and neither guy is shooting well this season. Both are struggling from beyond the arc too. The trademark of this Fightin' Blue Hens team is defense so, the point is, it is highly unlikely that Jackson and/or Wallace get going to day. Look for the Blue Hens to stay hot here while the Roadrunners continue to struggle as they just can't get their shots to fall right now. Grab the defensive-minded dog here against a Runners team that is very offensively-challenged when Jackson and Wallace are out of sorts and that is certainly the case right now. 10* DELAWARE | |||||||
11-10-19 | Chiefs v. Titans +6.5 | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #252 Sunday 8* Tennessee Titans (+) vs Kansas City Chiefs @ 1 ET - Mahomes is back this week at QB for the Chiefs but, undoubtedly, there will be some rust. Also, a start on the road at Tennessee is not exactly the top choice a QB would have either. The Titans defense is certainly a respectable one and the entire team is coming into this one with their ears pinned back. Tennessee is off a 10-point loss at Carolina last week despite the fact they outgained the Panthers by 61 yards. Kansas City is off a home win versus the Vikings that came on a game-winning 44-yard field goal. It was a hard-fought win, to say the least, and now the Chiefs are on the road this week. We have reached the 2nd half of the season and in games 9 through 12 of a season, when KC has a winning record and is favored against an opponent that is coming off a road game, the Chiefs have gone 1-7 ATS! The Titans, when facing an opponent with a winning percentage of .601 or greater that is off an ATS win, have gone 8-1 ATS! Motivation off a loss, home field, and the Titans are catching a rusty Mahomes at QB as he will be adjusting after all that time off. 8* TENNESSEE | |||||||
11-09-19 | Illinois v. Michigan State -14 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #136 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan State Spartans (-) vs Illinois Illini @ 3:30 ET - This is a game I had my eyes on since two weeks ago when the Spartans got hammered by 3 touchdowns at home against Penn State. Keep in mind, that is the only game that Michigan State has played since October 12th. Now, 4 weeks later, they are finally playing again as they have had two bye weeks in the past three weeks. This is exactly what the Spartans have needed as they most certainly have fresh legs here and they are ready to take out the frustration of three straight losses on what will prove to be an out-classed foe. Note that the Spartans lost to a "Murderers Row" of opponents as their last 3 games have come against Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State. Now they face an Illinois team that is coming into this game over-valued. Lovie Smith is a weakness at head coach and they don't have the talent level (not even close) to match up with the big boys in the Big Ten. Yes, I know the Illini managed that miracle upset over the Badgers a few weeks back but upsets can and do happen. What matters most is the long-term results and the situational spots. That said, I expect the Spartans to destroy Illinois here and give them a dose of reality. The Illini come into this game with a 5-4 record but their other 4 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-29. Keep in mind the Spartans last 3 losses have come against teams with a combined record of 22-2 and the Badgers are probably the best 2-loss team in the nation by the way. That said, the rout is on here. With this line coming back to 14, after having risen above that, it is "go time" for me with a big play on the home team in this one! 10* MICHIGAN STATE | |||||||
11-09-19 | Wake Forest -1.5 v. Virginia Tech | 17-36 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #137 Saturday 8* Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-) @ Virginia Tech Hokies @ 3:30 ET - QB Jamie Newman returned for Wake Forest last week. He had missed the Florida State game with an injury. It is no coincidence that the game against the Seminoles ended up being the lowest scoring output (22) for the Demon Deacons this season. With Newman under center Wake Forest has averaged 40 points per game in his 7 games. That is the key edge here is that the Demon Deacons simply have too much offense for Virginia Tech to be able to keep up here. The Hokies beat the Hurricanes 42-35 earlier this season but they were outgained by over 200 yards in that game. It was a deceiving final score and they only gained 337 yards in that game! 42 points on 337 yards yes you can see just how deceiving that game was! The point is that the only other "big" games that Virginia Tech had on offense were against Rhode Island and Old Dominion. Note they only scored 31 points in regulation of their 6 OT win over UNC. So taking away the crazy Hurricanes game and games against an FCS school (RI) and a bad (1-8) Old Dominion team, let's look at what Virginia Tech has averaged in terms of points scored in regulation of their other 5 games...22.6 points per game. You can see why I am expecting the Hokies to be unable to keep up here. Demon Deacons in a road rout. 8* WAKE FOREST | |||||||
11-09-19 | UAB +7.5 v. Southern Miss | 2-37 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #175 Saturday 8* UAB Blazers (+) @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ 3:30 ET - I used UAB last week and they got embarrassed at Tennessee but it was a deceiving final score. The Blazers were only outgained by 65 yards but they lost 30-7 because they were done in by turnovers. The point is that UAB was hardly outgained by an SEC team on the road last week and yet now they're getting more than a TD back in action against a CUSA team. While the Golden Eagles do rank an edge here, albeit slight, in terms of offense note that the defensive edge lies with the Blazers in a big way. Southern Miss has allowed nearly 30 points per game this season while UAB ranks 5th in the nation in defense based on yardage allowed. Look for the Eagles to get caught still feeling a little too good about themselves. They got a big win against a win-less Rice team two weeks ago and then had a bye week last week. Before the big win over the Owls, Southern Miss had allowed an average of 35.7 points per game in their 6 preceding games. The better defense gives the Blazers a great shot at the upset here and certainly the points are a high value play the way I am forecasting this one! Blazers are ticked off after that loss to the Volunteers followed their bye week. 8* UAB | |||||||
11-09-19 | Georgia Southern v. Troy +3 | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Rickenbach CFB Rotation #178 Saturday 8* Troy Trojans (+) vs Georgia Southern Eagles @ 3:30 ET - Great spot for a home dog. The Eagles were on the road last week and got the upset win at previously undefeated Appalachian State. Watch Georgia Southern now come out very flat this week after that huge upset in a weeknight televised game over a team that was 7-0. Certainly the Eagles deserve credit for pulling off the upset but the Mountaineers had 23 first downs compared to just 15 for Georgia Southern. Prior to that victory the Eagles only had one big win this season (41-7) but that came against a horrible New Mexico State team. Their other 3 wins came against Maine (an FCS school) by just a single score and South Alabama (2 OT) and Coastal Carolina (3 OT). In fact 3 of the Eagles last 4 wins have been by just 3 points so you can see why I like having the +3 on our side in this one. Troy is angry after a 1 point loss at Coastal Carolina that dropped them to a surprising 3-5 on the season. I like taking undervalued teams that are due to step up late in the season. The Trojans are off back to back road losses but this is a team that has scored 37 points or more in all 4 of its home games! While the Eagles have the better D, the Trojans are the much better O plus have home field here. Considering all that as well as the situational edge, there was no doubt for me here in terms of backing the home dog. 8* TROY | |||||||
11-09-19 | Massachusetts -3.5 v. Fairfield | Top | 62-60 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 3 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #601 Saturday 10* Top Play Massachusetts Minutemen (-) @ Fairfield Stags @ 1 ET - Fairfield is in a rebuilding mode and will often struggle to score points this season. That factor certainly played a role in their season opening loss to Bucknell and I expect it to also be a factor here. Massachusetts is still in a rebuild mode too but it began last season and their talent level and scoring ability will simply prove to be too much for the Stags in this one. UMass opened their season with win over UMass-Lowell and, though that was expected, the Minutemen were impressive nonetheless as they won by double digits as a 7 point favorite in that one. I was impressed with the Minutemen piling up both steals and blocks in their game against UMass-Lowell so it wasn't all about the offense. That being said Massachusetts did shoot the ball quite well and they now take on a Fairfield team that struggled with its shooting in their opening game. More of the same here in a game in which, in my opinion, the Stags just don't have the talent level to keep up with the Minutemen. 10* MASSACHUSETTS | |||||||
11-08-19 | Oakland v. Delaware +4 | Top | 53-56 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #794 Friday 10* Top Play Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens (+) vs Oakland (MI) Golden Grizzlies @ 5 ET @ Silver Spurs Arena in Kissimmee, FL - Both teams are off easy wins in their season openers as they faced outclassed opponents. Now things toughen up here in the 2nd game of the season for each. This is a neutral site game down in Florida and I like having the points on my side in this one. Yes I am aware of the injury situation for Delaware at the guard spot but their backcourt was a strong point heading into a season and they have enough talent and experience there even if Nate Darling and Ryan Allen are each unable to go in this one. The Golden Grizzlies weakness coming into this season is they lost a lot of talent from last season's team including their starting backcourt. Oakland (MI) is on their way down in the Horizon League at least in terms of falling a few notches while Delaware is on their way up and could finish among the top teams in the Colonial Athletic Association this season. They are preaching defensive intensity on one end of the floor and taking care of the ball on the other end of the floor and the players are a cohesive group that has "bought in" to the system heading into the season. The scrappy Fightin' Blue Hens have a great shot at the win here which means of course I like having a couple buckets on my side of the bet as well. Delaware, when on a neutral floor with their line ranging from a pick'em to a +5.5 has gone 9-4 ATS. Also, when off a game in which they scored 95 points or more, the Fightin' Blue Hens went a perfect 3-0 ATS the past two seasons. They enter this game with plenty of confidence and make for a scrappy underdog. The Golden Grizzlies are 1-3 SU in their last 4 neutral court games and have struggled in the role of favorite in recent seasons. The past two years Oakland is 13-24 ATS as a favorite. More of the same here. 10* DELAWARE | |||||||
11-07-19 | Thunder v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #574 Thursday 10* Top Play San Antonio Spurs (-) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:35 ET - I see this is as a great value spot for backing the Spurs. From a situational standpoint it doesn't get much better than this and plus the line value is there. The Thunder enter this match-up having won 2 straight but they are 0-2 on the road this season. San Antonio enters this game having lost 2 straight but they are 3-1 at home this season. Based on this line dropping to a 4.5 after opening as a high as a 5.5 globally, the markets are basically saying these teams are very nearly equal and the only edge that SA has is home court. But hold that thought for a second as you carry on to the next point. Coming into this season Oklahoma City was projected by bookmakers to lose about 50 games and have a 32-50 season based on their win total projection by odds makers. The Spurs on the other hand were projected to finish about 10 games above .500 as they were projected to finish 46-36. In the span of just a couple weeks NOT that much has changed to justify this line. San Antonio is going to come out very hungry at home and I see them winning this game by close to double digits. Note that the Spurs are 20-12 ATS when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. Also, as a home fave of 6 or less points SA is 26-13 ATS! Lay it with the home team in this one as the host has covered 5 straight in this series and all signs point to that trend continuing here! 10* SAN ANTONIO | |||||||
11-07-19 | Chargers -1 v. Raiders | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #107 Thursday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Chargers (-) @ Oakland Raiders @ 8:20 ET - The Chargers have won 4 straight meetings with the Raiders and the last 3 wins have come by an average margin of victory of 16.7 points. The strength of the Los Angeles offense is the passing game and the weakness of the Raiders defense is defending the pass. This is not a good match-up for Oakland as a result and they continue to be banged up along the offensive line too. The Chargers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games and they were at home last week against Green Bay so this is not a bad trouble situation for LA considering they are just heading up the coast in California for this one. The Raiders have the worst pass defense in this league and their passing attack on offense ranks just "middle of the pack" on the season. The Raiders are the better team on the ground but in the pass-happy NFL, it is often the aerial attack that keys victories. The Chargers pass defense ranks 5th in the league and their pass offense ranks 6th in the league. The Raiders are just 2-8 SU in their last 10 divisional games and this line is right around a pick'em. In other words, the SU winner is likely the ATS winner as well! Oakland is off a big win (and cover) versus Detroit last week and that is noteworthy here in this AFC West match-up. In a divisional game the Raiders are 0-12 ATS when they are off a SU/ATS win and facing an opponent that is off a non-divisional game. That system fits here as the Chargers hosted Green Bay last week. Also, in games 9 through 12 of a season, Oakland is 1-8 ATS when off a SU win and facing an opponent that is off an ATS cover by double digits. LA absolutely rolled the Packers last week! Look for the Chargers to improve to 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. 10* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | |||||||
11-06-19 | Wake Forest +2.5 v. Boston College | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #695 Wednesday 10* Top Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+) @ Boston College Eagles @ 6 ET - I know the Demon Deacons are off back to back 11-20 seasons and also return just 1 starter this season. However, there is a different feel in Wake Forest this season. This teams has a certain camaraderie and has jelled well in the off-season as they lead into this season opener. Also, this is as much a play against Boston College as it is a play on the Demon Deacons. The Eagles got bad news in September when they found out Wynston Tabbs would be out for the season with injury. Why is this so important? With Tabbs in the lineup last season Boston College went 10-5 and without him they went 4-12! This is a major loss for a team that I have projected to possibly finish dead last in the tough 15-team ACC. While the Eagles are sliding the wrong direction, I would not be surprised to see the Demon Deacons move into the top 10 in the ACC. Despite returning only one starter, Wake Forest does have depth and experience in the backcourt and guard play is critical to early season success. After winning 4 straight meetings, the Demon Deacons have lost back to back meetings with the Eagles and this is the perfect spot for payback at Boston College! Grab the points with the road dog as BC loses for the 7th time in their last 8 ACC games. 10* WAKE FOREST | |||||||
11-05-19 | Louisville v. Miami-FL +6.5 | Top | 87-74 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Ranked Rout - Rickenbach CBB Rotation #604 Tuesday 10* Top Play Miami Hurricanes (+) vs Louisville Cardinals @ 6:30 ET - Last year's game was tied at 50 about 6 minutes into the 2nd half and that game was at Louisville. The Cardinals then pulled away and won big but there are a couple of key factors that bear mentioning about this. One is that the Hurricanes were short-handed last season due to the David Hernandez ordeal that came out the night before the season started. Another key factor here is that the Cardinals Malik Williams led Louisville that night in rebounds (11) and was second in points (19) and he is out for tonight's game with a foot injury. Thirdly, this game is at Miami and the Cards (ranked #5 in the polls) certainly have a target on their backs right now. Yes the Hurricanes are without Keith Stone but he didn't play in last season's game and the Canes, in a much tougher situation than they are now, put up quite a fight for the majority of that game. Louisville is very talented and is set for a very strong season but the loss of Williams is a significant one. The Canes have much more depth in the frontcourt this season than they did last year and they can make up for Stone's absence here. Also, I really like the Hurricanes backcourt as point guard Chris Lykes is a 5'7 dynamo and Dejan Vasiljevic is a strong shooting guard that tied for the team lead with 19 points in last year's meeting with the Cards. The Italy trip this Miami team made heading into this season also helped the team jell and they come into the new season in a much different frame of mind than last season. Are they at Louisville's level when the Cardinals are 100%? Of course not. But can they win this game at home when the Cards are without Williams? You better believe it and, though they may fall short I would expect it to be by only a bucket or two. The value is with the home dog in this one. Louisville drops to 8-13 ATS as a road favorite when in a range of 6.5 to 9 points. The Cardinals enter this game on an overall 3-6 ATS run. The Hurricanes are 12-2 SU in their last 14 November games and are ready for a fast start this season. 10* MIAMI | |||||||
11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #476 Monday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) vs Dallas Cowboys @ 8:15 ET - The Giants are having a tough season but, keep in mind, they made the switch to Daniel Jones at QB in Week 3. Even though they are only 2-4 since then, two of the four losses came by 6 or less points. In other words, getting the +7 they are being offered at it in this Monday night game would have resulted in a 4-2 ATS record the past 6 games. Also, one of the only two blowout losses the Giants have had the past six weeks was to the Patriots and the Cowboys are certainly not at New England's level. Yes, Dallas is off a huge blowout win over the Eagles but lets not forget Dallas lost 3 straight games prior to that both ATS and SU! The Giants have covered 4 of their last 6 games on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys, when off a home blowout win by a margin of 21 points or more, have gone 11-24 ATS! New York is 8-3 ATS when they enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. The Giants, after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games, are a perfect 5-0 ATS. The Cowboys have swept New York each of the past two seasons and, having already beaten the Giants earlier this season, you know the home team is going to be fired up for the division leaders and will do everything they can to avoid a 3rd straight season sweep at the hands of Dallas. Give me the hungry home dog in this one! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS | |||||||
11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #474 Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) vs New England Patriots @ 8:20 ET - As everyone knows, a perfect season is very hard to attain! That said, when we get to the midway point in the season and there are still teams that are undefeated I look to go against them when the opportunity is right. I did that on Thursday with the Cardinals against the undefeated 49ers and though they didn't get the upset win they did get the cash at the betting window. I am doing the same thing on Sunday with the Ravens and, though I do expect the outright upset here, I am grabbing the points (some 3.5 available as of early Sunday morning). Baltimore is a great spot here as they are off their bye week and the Ravens have gone 13-4 ATS the last 17 times when off a bye week. Also, Baltimore enters this game on a 3-game winning streak and with plenty of momentum after their win by a 2-TD margin over the Seahawks in the Pacific Northwest. Of course it is hard to knock the Patriots as they are big winners year in and year out under the mastermind Bill Belichick and with Tom Brady at the controls. However, they do have a bye week on deck and last year prior to their bye week (also around this time of year) they went into Tennessee and promptly got crushed 34-10. The other important thing I want to talk about here is the Patriots schedule. The Pats have feasted on a plethora of weak opponents early this season. The Bills are the toughest team the Patriots have faced this season and they did not cover in that win. The rest of New England's schedule has been against teams with losing records including teams with just 0, 1, and 2 wins and we're now at the mid-way point of the season! Bad teams and the Pats really take a step up in level of opponent and the situation is perfect for an extremely strong game from a physical Ravens team ready to bring that physicality in a punishing way coming off their bye week. There is also a "tightener" relating to the Ravens off a bye week and that is that if they are off a bye and facing a non-divisional opponent, they've gone 11-1 ATS! I'll take it! 10* BALTIMORE | |||||||
11-03-19 | Browns v. Broncos +4.5 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Rotation #470 Sunday NFL 8* Denver Broncos (+) vs Cleveland Browns @ 4:25 ET - There has been an over-reaction here because of the injury to Broncos QB Joe Flacco. I expect Brandon Allen to surprise people with his level of play here. He also has mobility which is a plus. The key here though is we're now getting a very solid defense plus as many as 4.5 points and they are at home in this one and coming off a loss. Yes Denver's season has been a disappointment thus far but so too has the Browns season. Cleveland has struggled this year and, like the Broncos, has just 2 wins on the year. Also, the brash personality of Browns QB Baker Mayfield has put a target on the back of the Cleveland offense every time they step on the field. Defenses love "getting after it" when they face a QB who has a little too much bravado as they love to "put him in his place". Keep in mind, the Browns came into this season with very high expectations and they have fallen well short thus far. Trying to right the ship at a tough place to play and facing a tough defense...I just don't see it happening. The Browns beat the Broncos here late last season but Denver entered that game having beaten Cleveland 11 straight times and now it is payback time. The Browns struggle to stop the run and the Broncos have a respectable ground game and that will help Allen get acclimated into the offense here as Denver establishes the run. The Broncos defense allowed 30 points recently to the Chiefs but that was a fluke as KC only had 271 yards of offense in that game. Considering that as well as the fact that Denver has allowed an average of only 9.3 points per game in their other 3 recent games, you can see why I am expecting the Browns to struggle against this Broncos defense at Mile High! Give men the points with the home dog here. 8* DENVER | |||||||
11-03-19 | Packers v. Chargers +4 | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Rickenbach NFL Rotation #472 Sunday 8* Los Angeles Chargers (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 4:25 ET - The Packers are a fantastic 7-1 SU on the season but if you take a look at their last 6 games it tells you why they are a bit over-valued here. Green Bay's wins included victories over Denver, Detroit, and Oakland. None of those teams have a winning record. The Packers lost to the Eagles and then, though they beat the Cowboys, Green Bay was heavily out-statted at Dallas. As for their most recent game GB took advantage of KC being without star QB Patrick Mahomes. Even facing the Chiefs without their star, the Packers still barely won that game. Now the Pack face a Chargers team that has a knack for playing tight games and yet GB is as high as a 4.5 point favorite in this one. I won't hesitate to grab the home dog here as LA also has momentum courtesy of finally getting a much-needed late game victory at Chicago last week. The Chargers lose so many tight games that this was a big confidence-booster for them and totally changes the morale of locker room heading into this match-up with a 7-1 Green Bay team. The strength of the Los Angeles defense is defending the pass and the Packers rely heavily on QB Rodgers and the passing attack. That said, the edge goes to LA here and that is particularly true because the Chargers edge is also the passing attack and they're now going against a defense that ranks in the bottom fourth of the NFL. Make no mistake about it, considering the Packers defensive production this season, they are very fortunate to be 7-1 at this point and that is why I am expecting an upset loss for GB here but I am grabbing the added insurance of having the points here in case LA loses on a late field goal as they so often seem to do. 8* LOS ANGELES CHARGERS | |||||||
11-03-19 | Bears v. Eagles -4 | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #458 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (-) vs Chicago Bears @ 1 ET - The Eagles are getting healthier and getting some reinforcements on both sides of the ball for this one. After the ugly disappointment of their disaster at Dallas a few weeks ago, Philadelphia got it with a dominating win at Buffalo. They have a bye on deck next week and this is the Eagles only home game between early October and mid-November. In other words, they have had this game circled as a key game to notch the victory heading into their bye week and an upcoming showdown with the Patriots on the 17th. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS the last 6 times in a game before a bye week. They'll take advantage of facing a Bears team that is in a free-fall with 3 straight losses. Chicago's offense continues to struggle as last week was the 4th time in 7 games that the Bears have been held to 16 points or less. Also, prior to last week's tight loss to the Chargers, the Bears normally stout defense had allowed an average of 30 points in their two prior games. Chicago is in the wrong place at the wrong time to try and fix these types of problems. The Bears are 3-10 ATS their last 13 games against NFC East opponents. Of course Chicago would love to get revenge for last year's home playoff loss (a heart-breaker) to the Eagles but note also that the Bears are 0-3 ATS this season when off an upset loss as a favorite and that is the case here after another disheartening loss last week to the Chargers that was a winnable game. The Eagles were a small dog to the Bills in Buffalo last week and won the game by an 18 point margin. Philadelphia is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times off an upset win as an underdog. They'll again carry that momentum well here, especially with DeSean Jackson, Darren Sproles, and Tim Jernigan all listed as probable for this one. 8* PHILADELPHIA | |||||||
11-02-19 | Colorado +7 v. UCLA | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #345 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado Buffaloes (+) @ UCLA Bruins @ 9 ET - The Bruins are playing better but they also have had some good fortune in the way the scheduling worked out recently and that helped them. UCLA has 3 wins this season and their first was the unforgettable 67-63 miracle comeback win at Washington State. However, their last two wins (they enter this game on a 2-game win streak) were helped by scheduling. They caught Stanford when the Cardinal were still celebrating their huge upset win of Washington as a double digit dog. Then the Bruins caught Arizona State last week after the Sun Devils had just played a very physical game against the Utes. It is never easy to play at Utah and ASU did that just prior to then facing UCLA. In other words, certainly the Bruins deserve some credit for their wins but there are some noteworthy aspects for sure. That said, I like backing Colorado now that they're getting a full +7 in this match-up. The Buffaloes have a knack for playing tight games as 5 of their last 7 games have been decided by 7 points or less. Colorado, other than when playing a vastly superior foe, tends to always be in their games because they have a dangerous offense. The match-up I like here is the Buffaloes #51 offense (yardage gained) facing a Bruins #114 defense (points allowed). The key is not just that match-up but the fact that the Buffs catch UCLA off B2B wins and that the Bruins were a small dog in each game. I could see UCLA being a little flat here after back to back upset wins and having a bye on deck. Bruins already thinking they could just coast into the bye. Note that the underdog is now 5-0 ATS in UCLA's last 5 games. Playing the underdog in Colorado games has produced a 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 games. The Buffaloes covered as a double digit dog against USC last week. The Bruins are 3-8 ATS when off an ATS cover by a double digit margin. 10* COLORADO | |||||||
11-02-19 | Nuggets -4 v. Magic | Top | 91-87 | Push | 0 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
NBA TV Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #505 Saturday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (-) @ Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - Perfect set up for a road rout. Both the Nuggets and Magic are coming off ugly losses but Orlando has been struggling to score points. As for Denver, I feel they are the much stronger team and so I like having them and laying just a short number here on the road. The fact is they are off back to back losses but that was after a 3-0 start to the season. After the embarrassment of being the Pelicans first victim this season (New Orleans had been 0-4 entering Thursday's game), coach Malone was extremely fired up. He'll have the Nuggets ready to go here after back to back losses. Orlando would love to respond too (after an ugly loss) but they are at a disadvantage here as they are without rest (played last night) and they simply are not as talented of a team as the Nuggets are. The road rout is on in this one. 10* DENVER | |||||||
11-02-19 | UAB +13.5 v. Tennessee | 7-30 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #367 Saturday 8* UAB Blazers (+) @ Tennessee Volunteers @ 7 ET - UAB has been a team on the rise under head coach Bill Clark. They won 2 games the year before he arrived and have since recorded seasons of 6 wins, 8 wins, and 11 wins in succession. Now the Blazers are already 6-1 this season plus enter this game off a bye week. That said, the set up here is perfect because they are catching Tennessee off a massive upset win over South Carolina. The Volunteers were a home dog in that game and yet won the game by a 20 point margin. Certainly it is important to note that UAB has played a very weak schedule this season and, as we all know, it is not easy for the schools from weaker conferences when they travel to take on an SEC foe. However, this does not change the fact that the Blazers have won 17 of their last 21 games and are a team loaded with confidence as a result. They full believe (and expect) that they can go into Knoxville, TN and walk out a winner. Now that is certainly easier said than done but with the line moving even higher here on the Vols, I have no hesitation in backing a very dangerous underdog. Tennessee is off back to back huge SEC games at Alabama and then hosting the Gamecocks for the upset. Also, the Volunteers have another SEC game (at Kentucky) on deck. The Vols are an ugly 2-11 ATS when they face a non-conference opponent off a SU win by a double digit margin. The Volunteers are 1-8 ATS as non-conference favorites of 11.5 points or more. Also, here are a pair of perfect angles in play here! Tennessee is 0-11 ATS when facing an opponent that is off B2B SU/ATS wins. Also, the Volunteers are 0-9 ATS when off a SU win by 14.5 points or more. That puts this one in a 20-0 ATS spot for backing the Blazers! 8* UAB | |||||||
11-02-19 | Army +16.5 v. Air Force | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #363 Saturday 8* Army Black Knights (+) @ Air Force Falcons @ 3:30 ET - Certainly Army is down this season after back to back very strong seasons. However, this is a rivalry game and this is simply too many points being offered to the Black Knights. Keep in mind, even though they have struggled at times (particularly on offense) this season Army is still allowing just 23 points per game on the season (compared to 22 for Air Force). Note that the home team has covered just 4 of the past 15 meetings between these teams. Also, even though the Black Knights are only 3-5 SU on the season, all five of Army's losses have come by a single digit margin. Now Air Force is being asked to cover more than two TD's against a team that hasn't lost a game by a double digit margin this season. I just don't see it. I know the Falcons have been playing very well but now in the past couple weeks they were at Hawaii and then also in a big home win versus Utah State last week. This will be their 8th straight week playing a game while Army had the benefit of a bye just a few weeks ago. The Falcons are just 2-7 ATS the last 9 times they have been a double digit favorite. The Black Knights are in their preferred dog role here and are also a perfect 6-0 ATS when they are a dog of 4.5 points or more and coming off B2B SU and ATS losses. That system is in play and goes to 7-0 Saturday. 8* ARMY | |||||||
11-01-19 | Montreal v. Ottawa +9.5 | Top | 42-32 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #812 Friday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - Yes the Redblacks are putting the wraps on an ugly season and mired in a long losing streak. However, Ottawa will always be motivated when facing the rival Alouettes and one could easily question Montreal's motivation here. You see the Als are locked into a home playoff game next week against Edmonton. The Alouettes main focus here is simply keeping their guys healthy physical and then, from a mental standpoint, the Eskimos match-up is already on the minds of the Als. That said I won't hesitate to grab the big home dog value with Ottawa here. The Redblacks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 meetings with Montreal. Also, Ottawa has won 11 of the last 14 games SU. The Alouettes also have a long-term tendency NOT to blow teams out. That is they are 2-7 ATS as a favorite including 0-4 ATS this season. The Redblacks are 6-3 ATS the last 9 times they have been a home underdog. An outright upset would not be a complete shock here but I am grabbing the generous points being offered. 10* OTTAWA | |||||||
10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #302 Thursday 10* Top Play Arizona Cardinals (+) vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - The 49ers are 7-0 SU this season but the Cardinals are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games against San Francisco. Now, of course, I am not saying the Cards are going to win this game outright but I do feel we've got great home dog value in this match-up. The Niners are over-valued after their blowout win versus Carolina last week while Arizona is under-valued after their blowout loss at New Orleans last week. As strong as the 49ers have been, they haven't run away with the division just yet. That's because the Seahawks are right behind them and, up next for the Niners, a huge game on deck versus Seattle a week from Sunday. With that said, can the 49ers maintain full focus here and win this game by double digits on a short week? I am forecasting that the answer to that question is a no. The Cardinals entered last week's action on a 3-game winning streak but they ran into a buzzsaw as they faced a red hot Saints team that also got a big boost with the return of Drew Brees at QB! The Cards will perform much better back at home this week. When Arizona is a host, and facing an opponent off a win (both SU and ATS), they have covered 15 of the last 17 times! The fact the Cardinals are getting double digits in points here after the line move (originally line was around a TD) means we've got even more value to work with in this one. 10* ARIZONA | |||||||
10-31-19 | Heat v. Hawks +7 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week (Eastern Conference) - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #562 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Miami Heat @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the Hawks injury situation. This includes the fact that Trae Young, Atlanta's young star and last week's NBA Player of the Week, is out for this game. However, he got hurt just 2 minutes into the game at Miami on Tuesday and yet the Hawks still hung around in that game. Now, at home in Atlanta, and with extra time to figure out game planning without Young available for this game, look for the Hawks to be ultra competitive tonight. They may again fall short to the Heat but, if they do, I would expect it to be only by a bucket or two. Atlanta has a lot of youth behind Young at point guard but it helps young players when they are at home. The fact we're getting more than a half dozen points here at home has me liking the Hawks plenty in this match-up. Miami is on a 4-15 ATS run when off a home win by a double digit margin. Also, the Heat are 1-5 ATS when off a divisional win by a double digit margin. Atlanta has 4 days off after this game so they're going to want to make the most of this opportunity. In other words, there is no holding back and the Hawks will leave it all on the floor in terms of their effort tonight. Keep in mind, prior to the road loss Tuesday, Atlanta was 2-1 this season and the only loss had come by two points! Again, I know the Hawks are without Young here but they are being undervalued in this spot based on the Tuesday results at Miami. Look for the home dog to improve to 26-18 when off a blowout loss by a margin of 15 or more points. Payback time. 10* ATLANTA | |||||||
10-30-19 | Wolves v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 95-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #542 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76'ers (-) vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 7:05 ET - The 76'ers opened their season a week okay versus Boston at home. Philly has since been on the road for a pair of games and after this game the Sixers will not be home again until November 10th. That means, because of an upcoming 4 game road trip out west, the 76'ers only home game between October 23rd and November 10th is tonight on Wednesday. You can bet (literally!) that they're going to make the most of it. I have had my eyes on this situation for awhile and everything set up perfectly and that is why I am going with a big play here. The Timberwolves remain undefeated on the season courtesy of a huge comeback win against the Heat on Sunday. The Wolves were actually down 7 points heading to the 4th quarter of that game and yet miraculously won the game by 7 points. It was a miracle cover for those whom had Minnesota -6.5 as the game was tied with just a couple minutes to go and the Timberwolves trailed for plenty of the 3rd and 4th quarters. In any event it sets this one up nicely because Minnesota is over-valued right now. They are 3-0 on the season but their road wins came at Brooklyn and Charlotte. The Nets and Hornets are a combined 2-5 on the young season. The fact is that Minnesota came into this season projected to win about 35 games while Philly came into this season projected to win about 55 games. The Sixers won their only other home game of the season by 14 against the Celtics and they can win this game by double digits too. The point is that, given the above, this line should be in the double digit range but it is well short of that and I am all over the value here in going against a Wolves team whose luck runs out tonight. The Sixers know how to dial up the defense, particularly when at home, and Minnesota won't find the openings they did late in their win over Miami on Sunday. That one burned us as we have the Heat +7 in that game and had no business being handed a tough push. Today we get payback as the Sixers make the most of their lone home game in about a 3-week stretch. They are going to give a tremendous effort at home tonight. 10* PHILADELPHIA | |||||||
10-29-19 | Nationals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #912 Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs +125 vs Washington Nationals @ 8:07 ET - In the many years of World Series history there have, of course, been some great stories. I look for this one to be added to that list after Game 6 goes in the books as an Astros victory. It would involve Houston roaring back to win 4 straight after dropping each of the first two games on their home field. It would involve Justin Verlander finally winning an MLB decision in the World Series after beginning his career 0-5 in World Series decisions. It would also involve the home team finally getting a win after the road team won each of the first five games. The reason I am playing the run line here is partially because I simply don't like laying -175 prices on the money line. As long-time followers know, I am very careful when it comes to money management and risk. That said, I like the fact we can get as much as +125 (as of early game day morning) by laying the -1.5 runs with Houston. Another reason I like the run line here is each of the past 4 games have been decided by big multi-run margins. The Astros have been swinging the bats well in recent games while the Nationals have been struggling badly at the plate. The momentum has completely shifted in this series and now the Astros and Verlander finish off the Nationals and Stephen Strasburg. The Astros are 24-5 this season when playing after a day off. Washington is 11-15 this season as an underdog of +125 to +175. Verlander has had fantastic numbers since coming to the Astros from the Tigers. Incredible results in a Houston uniform and, I look for him to win this rematch with Strasburg as Verlander also has been solid overall in his home appearances in this post-season. Momentum and the hotter sticks lead to a big home win in this one. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs | |||||||
10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers -14 | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Primetime Punisher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #278 Monday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (-) vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:15 ET - I know it may seem tough lay big points with a 2-4 Steelers team. However, keep in mind we're fading an 0-6 Dolphins team and Pittsburgh is at home and coming off a bye week. Also, Miami had scored an average of just 8.4 points per game in their first 5 games this season! Certainly the Dolphins showed a little more on offense last week but that came against a Bills team that promptly got blasted by the struggling Eagles yesterday. In other words, perhaps one shouldn't put too much weight into Miami's performance at Buffalo last week. Also, the Steelers are on a 4-0 ATS run. They've gone 2-1 SU in their last 3 games and the lone loss was in overtime. In regulation time Pittsburgh has allowed 14.3 points per game their past 3 games. Not only is the defense playing well but the offense gets QB Mason Rudolph back for this one. The most comparable game to this one is when the Steelers hosted Cincinnati on a Monday night. The Bengals were (and still are) win-less. Pittsburgh rolled Cincy by a margin of 24 points and that is what I am expecting here as well. The fact the line moved down from a 17 to a 14 means we've got even more line value here. I am going with my highest rating of a 10* Top Play as a result. Lay it as the Steelers make it 5 straight covers! 10* PITTSBURGH | |||||||
10-27-19 | Packers v. Chiefs +5.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #276 Sunday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (+) vs Green Bay Packers @ 8:20 ET - The Chiefs have no chance here without Pat Mahomes, right? Actually I feel better about Kansas City than most do heading into this situation. Keep in mind, this is still a quality team on both sides of the ball and it is not as if they are now turning to a rookie QB with zero NFL experience. The fact is that Matt Moore is a 35 year old veteran with plenty of NFL experience and he had to play many years on mediocre Dolphins teams. Now he is surrounded by teammates that are part of a legit Super Bowl contender. Having had a full week and a half to prepare for this game (after being thrown into the fire Thursday night at Denver), Moore will be ready here. The Packers laying nearly a full TD on the road in this one is simply too much. Keep in mind, Green Bay has had the luxury of a very favorable schedule as this is just their 2nd game away from Wisconsin in the past 7 weeks! Also, this will be just their 3rd game this season against a team that currently has a winning record. In the other two games (against Dallas and Minnesota) the Packers did get the win in each game but the stats tell the full story! Green Bay was outgained in both games and, in fact, was outgained by more than a total of 300 yards by the Cowboys and Vikings. Now the Packers take on a strong Chiefs team on the road and are laying nearly a TD...I don't think so! Green Bay struggles to run the ball on offense and their defense is suspect against both the run and the pass. The Chiefs strength on defense is against the pass and I also look for the KC defense to really ramp things up at home as they are fired up about hosting Aaron Rodgers and his high-flying Packers in this one. The Chiefs D will be ready and, on the other side of the ball, Moore will utilize his weapons very well and the KC offense will take advantage of Packers weak defense! 10* KANSAS CITY | |||||||
10-27-19 | Heat +7 v. Wolves | Top | 109-116 | Push | 0 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #505 Sunday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) @ Minnesota Timberwlves @ 7:05 ET - I am very well aware of the old "rule" about never playing a team off an OT win in a back to back spot but there is simply too much value to ignore in this one. I also like the fact that it is early in the season and also yesterday's game was an early game for Miami and then it was a short flight from Milwaukee to Minneapolis. That being said, we're getting some extra value (+7) here because of the situation and I feel the Timberwolves are being given far too much respect. Keep in mind that this is a team that came into the season projected to win about 35 games while the Heat came into this season projected to win about 45 games. What I like about Miami here is their resiliency. They were down big on the road against the Bucks, an NBA title contender, and then came roaring all the way back for the eventual overtime win. That is a confidence booster to say the least. It also means that even if the Heat get down to the Wolves in this one by a sizable margin, which not be a total surprise given this is Minnesota's home opener, one can fully expect the high-powered Heat to battle back and get right back into the game. Miami has been putting up a ton of points early this season and that makes them a dangerous dog in a spot like this. This one is all about the situational value and, even though the Wolves are 2-0, they played one very bad team and won their other game in OT by a single point. Lets not get carried away with Minnesota's 2-0 start. So another way to look at this is we have a Heat team projected to be a 45-win team this season getting a full +7 against a Minnesota team projected to be a 35-win team this season. I understand the situational edge for the home team here but this line could easily be much closer to a pick'em! Give me the big points! 10* MIAMI | |||||||
10-27-19 | Panthers +5 v. 49ers | 13-51 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #269 Sunday 8* Carolina Panthers (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - It looks easy to take the undefeated team here considering they are at home and laying a short number. However, in typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the road dog in this one. Keep in mind, the Niners are off a road trip to the east coast last week as they were in Washington DC to take on the Redskins. Also, SF is actually on a 5-13 ATS run as a home favorite. Each of the last 6 meetings between these teams have seen Carolina get the cash! Also, the Panthers have covered 10 of their last 13 when they are a road dog and not facing a divisional opponent. I like the fact that Carolina is playing with plenty of confidence as they are 4-0 (both SU and ATS) with Allen at QB. Unlike San Francisco, the Panthers are very rested here as they are coming off their bye week. This one sets up well for big situational edges for the road dog and I am grabbing the points. I would not be surprised to see the 49ers unbeaten season come to an end here but I am grabbing the points as added insurance should the Panthers fall just short on the scoreboard. 8* CAROLINA | |||||||
10-27-19 | Eagles +2.5 v. Bills | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #261 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Buffalo Bills @ 1 ET - After getting thoroughly embarrassed with their performance at Dallas on Sunday night, look for a tremendous response from the Eagles this week. Philadelphia will take advantage of a Bills team that is over-valued right now. Buffalo is off a win versus Miami last week but they were out-gained in that game. The Bills won the game but were not impressive and certainly the win was aided by a pair of Dolphins turnovers. Philly is on a 15-6 ATS run in games against AFC opponents. In regular season action, the Eagles are 13-0 ATS when they are on the road after a game in which they were held to 10 or less points! Also, Philadelphia is 6-0 ATS when they are off B2B SU losses and facing a team off a SU win by a double digit margin (Bills won by 10 last week). The Eagles already cashed in this role earlier this season when they upset the Packers at Lambeau Field! Bills head coach Sean McDermott is 1-5 ATS when off B2B SU wins. Also, in games 5 through 8 of a season, Buffalo is 2-10 ATS when at home and facing an opponent off a SU loss by a double digit margin. As you can see, great situational edge here for the road dog in this one. Also, included in the strong trending above, a pair of perfect angles combining for a 19-0 ATS mark in support of the Eagles in this match-up. The public is considering the Eagles a dead team after B2B poor road performances. When a team is most under-valued, it is the best time to step in. Hungry road dog gets it done here! 8* PHILADELPHIA | |||||||
10-26-19 | Notre Dame v. Michigan +1 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #208 Saturday 10* Top Play Michigan Wolverines (+) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:30 ET - Once again I am making a top side play that is contrarian to public opinion. This line was around a -2.5 on Michigan and now the Wolverines are the underdog in this match-up. Once again the public thinks there has been some kind of mistake here as, after all, Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh so often loses the bigger games. Long-time followers know how I feel about supposed "mistakes" by the odds-makers. There is a REASON why the odds makers made the lower-ranked team the favorite. Yes Notre Dame is in the top ten while the Wolverines are barely hanging on in the top 25 but I like a couple key factors here. One is that this game is at Michigan and the host is 8-1 (both SU and ATS) in the last 9 meetings between these teams. Another key I like here is that the Wolverines have played the tougher schedule. Michigan got embarrassed at Wisconsin earlier this season but they've been a different team ever since and actually outgained the Nittany Lions by over 130 yards last week and had a huge 26-14 edge in first downs. The Wolverines didn't get what they deserved on the scoreboard at Penn State but they'll make up for that here at home. The only truly tough match-up for Notre Dame this season has been facing Georgia. The Irish lost that game. I know the Fighting Irish have the better offense in this match-up but the Wolverines have the better defense and the home field edge and Michigan is ready to make the most of what is their one and only home game out of a 6-week stretch from early Oct to mid-Nov. The Wolverines lost at Notre Dame by a TD in the season opener last year. That is noteworthy here as Michigan is 5-0 ATS the last 5 times they have been at home and playing with revenge against an opponent with a winning percentage of .899 or less. The Wolverines already rode their defense to a big home revenging win earlier this season when they held Iowa to just 3 points in avenging a loss in their prior meeting with the Hawkeyes. Look for payback here and take advantage of additional line value offered by the line move in this one. Notre Dame has had a very home-friendly schedule this season and now drops to 1-2 SU on the season away from home with losses to the Bulldogs and the Wolverines! 10* MICHIGAN | |||||||
10-26-19 | Miami-FL +4.5 v. Pittsburgh | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #189 Saturday 8* Miami Hurricanes (+) @ Pittsburgh Panthers @ Noon ET - QB N'Kosi Perry has been upgraded to probable for the Hurricanes in this one and is expected to get the start. He has completed 60% of his passes and has 7 TDs against just 1 INT since moving into the primary QB role this month. Miami is off a disappointing OT loss to Georgia Tech last week and, as a result, will bring their "A game" on the road at Pittsburgh this week. The Panthers are just 2-11 SU in their last 13 games against Miami but are favored here due to being at home plus the Canes recent disappointment. That said, the result is great line value in a spot like this. Pittsburgh has won 4 straight games but they have not won 5 straight games in TEN years! Also, the Panthers 4 wins have all come by just a single score. Prior to being Syracuse by a TD last week, Pitt's 3 prior wins in this streak all came by 3 or less points. I see great value here with catching, as of early game day morning, +4.5 with the Hurricanes in this one. The Orange team that the Panthers beat last week by a TD is really down this season. Syracuse wins have come against Liberty, Holy Cross, and a MAC team. In other words, don't put too much stock into the Panthers beating Syracuse. Pitt's most recent home game is also quite telling as they won by just 3 points against Delaware! The Panthers were a 30 point favorite in that game and yet scored only 17 points! Now Pitt faces a tough Hurricanes defense off a disappointing loss. The last time Miami visited Pittsburgh, 2 years ago, they entered the game 10-0 on the season but the Panthers upset them. The Canes got some payback with last year's home win but they still want to get it done AT Pittsburgh as well. They won't let this opportunity pass them by! Grab the handful of points here but we shouldn't need them. 8* MIAMI | |||||||
10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -3 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #534 Friday 10* Top Play Boston Celtics (-) vs Toronto Raptors @ 7:05 ET - The Celtics ran into a buzzsaw in the form of a determined and hungry 76ers team in Philly on Wednesday. The Sixers had long been the punching bag of Boston and wanted to prove they are ready to live up to their lofty expectations this season. Now the Celtics get a much better match-up in Game 2 of their season and in what is Boston's home opener. The Raptors are coming to down. Of course Toronto's expectations are down quite far this season as Kawhi Leonard is now wearing a Clippers jersey! Also, the Raptors handed me an early candidate for "bad beat of the year" with their OT win (and inexplicable cover!) in their overtime 8 point win over the Pelicans on opening night on Tuesday. That said, I already had my eyes on this match-up ever since that game and things set up perfectly after the Celtics were throttled in Philadelphia on Wednesday. Boston was held in check thanks to stifling defense of the 76ers and now the Celtics will enjoy a lot more open court and open looks in this match-up against the Raptors. After shooting poorly from the field (including from beyond the arc) and also shooting poorly at the foul line, the Celtics will turn in a much stronger performance on their home floor on Friday evening. Look for the host to win this one in an absolute rout. 10* BOSTON | |||||||
10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +14.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #104 Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Cougars (+) vs SMU Mustangs @ 7:30 ET - With SMU off a blowout win over Temple and Houston off an unimpressive win against a bad UConn team, the markets are shaded heavily toward the Mustangs here. In typical contrarian fashion I am on the Cougars here! Give me the big points with the home dog as Houston is known for playing much better at home and also they get their QB back this week after he missed last week's game and the Cougars were down to #3 on the depth chart with Logan Holgorsen. Houston will have Clayton Tune back this week and I look for him to atone for his 3 INT performance in his most recent game as that was against a tough Cincinnati defense. Note that SMU has allowed an average of 30 points per game in their 3 road games this season! Also, the Mustangs are overvalued here because they have been a covering machine this season. The Cougars have done well in the big dog role and I fully expect that to continue here as you know Houston will be "up" for this game against an in-state conference foe that is undefeated on the season and also ranked in the top 25. This is a big game for the Cougars that they are relishing to have at home and with the ESPN cameras rolling! Houston is a perfect 4-0 ATS when off a SU road win in conference action. As a dog of +1.5 or more, the Cougars are 15-3-1 their last 19 games. More of the same expected here! SMU is 0-4 ATS when off a win by a double digit margin over a conference rival. Not only are the Mustangs off the big win over the Owls last week, they also have a huge game with Memphis on deck. 10* HOUSTON | |||||||
10-24-19 | Hawks +1 v. Pistons | Top | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #527 Thursday 10* Top Play Atlanta Hawks (+) @ Detroit Pistsons @ 7:05 ET - Give credit to the Pistons as they went on the road, sans Blake Griffin, and beat a solid Indiana team last night. However, a look inside the numbers shows why some struggles are to be expected tonight. An early season back to back is tough as teams aren't use to that yet this early in the season. Also, Detroit knocked down 46% of their 3-pointers and also 56% from inside the arc. That hot shooting is unlikely to be repeated against a hungry Hawks team that will be flying all over the floor looking to win their season opener. Also, with Griffin out, Andre Drummond is the most important player on the floor for the Pistons and he played 41 minutes last night. That is going to be tough on the big man for tonight as, no matter how well-conditioned you are, a back to back is particularly tough on a big man. Drummond was key to the win last night and his minutes could be limited tonight. Grab the fresher team as the trend we saw toward road covers in yesterday's first big card of NBA action continues in this one Thursday as the home teams are a little over-valued early in the season when a lot of these games are "anybody's game" and, given the rest edge for the Hawks here, I look for the road team to pull away late. 10* ATLANTA | |||||||
10-23-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #512 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 7:35 ET - The betting markets tend to put a lot of weight into historical data. That is why this line is only a -5 on Philadelphia as of early game day morning. That said, the line is far too low and I will step in and take advantage. The fact is that the 76ers have a history of recent struggles against the Celtics and that is why Boston is getting plenty of attention in this match-up. However, the fact is that the Celtics are trending the wrong direction away from NBA Championship contender while the 76ers (along with the Bucks) are now considered a frontrunner to come out of the Eastern Conference and battle for the NBA Title in June. In other words, we've got the stronger team and we've got the team that wants to exterminate a long-time nemesis and we've got them on their home floor and they're laying just 5 points. I'll take this kind of situation all day every day. In terms of additional support for this one, Boston is just 9-15 SU as a road dog of 6 points or less while Philly is 65-19 SU as a home favorite including 29-10 SU as a home favorite of 6 or less points. In other words, it is very likely that Philly gets the SU win here and having the Sixers in the -5 range is a great value. The 76ers are on an 8-3 ATS run and continue to be undervalued by the markets while the Celtics are on a 1-4 ATS run entering the new season and are overvalued here due to past successes against the Sixers. Philly is in the process of turning the tables on Boston and "the process" continues here. 10* PHILADELPHIA | |||||||
10-22-19 | Nationals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Game of the Month Run Line - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #802 Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Astros Run Line -1.5 runs (+120) vs Washington Nationals @ 8:08 ET - Great line value here in my opinion because the Astros are nearly a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line but yet we can get Houston in the +120 range by laying the 1.5 runs and taking them on the run line. I know Max Scherzer is a solid pitcher but Gerrit Cole has been unbelievably dominant. In other words, this one belongs to Cole an the Astros! Cole went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA in the regular season and, for an encore, he has gone 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA in the post-season! Again, Scherzer is solid but he is not as dominant as Cole. In the regular season Scherzer went just 6-5 in 17 night game starts. Also, in the month of September, the Nationals right-hander had a 5.16 ERA in his 5 starts. By the way, 9 straight Washington games (and 14 of their past 15) have been decided by a margin of 2 or more runs. In other words, a 1-run game unlikely here. As for the Astros, 13 of their past 14 games have been decided by 2 or more runs. Looking only at Houston's wins, 13 of the Astros past 14 victories have come by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Astros are the most dominant home team in MLB in 2019 and that continues in Game 1 of the Worlds Series. 10* HOUSTON -1.5 runs | |||||||
10-22-19 | Pelicans +7 v. Raptors | Top | 122-130 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Tuesday 10* New Orleans Pelicans (+) @ Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - The Pelicans are without Zion Williamson due to his injury but lets not forget that the Raptors no longer have Kawhi Leonard. That said, I feel we have great line value here with this line as it first opened up around a 5 and is now up to a 7 as of early game day morning. New Orleans has gone 51-36 ATS in road games the past two seasons. Also, within that stat for the Pelicans is a tightener as well. New Orleans is 13-7 / 65% ATS when they are a road dog in a range of +6.5 to +12 points. As you can see with the huge total posted on this game, a lot of points are expected in this one. That is another key that trends very much AGAINST Toronto here. The Raptors, in a home game where the total is posted at 220 or more, have gone 16-28-3 ATS long-term. Look for the Pelicans to take this one to the wire north of the border Tuesday. Having Jrue Holiday back at the point is a key for the Pelicans as he missed the final 5 weeks of last season and is a tremendous player and a floor leader. Also, I like the addition of JJ Redick for a strong outside shooting threat as well. 10* NEW ORLEANS | |||||||
10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #473 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:20 ET - Dallas has lost 3 straight games. That said, the ability to get +3 in going against them in a huge divisional rivalry game is an absolutely massive value. Keep in mind, the Cowboys have 3 wins this season and those came against teams that are now a combined 3-14 on the season. The Eagles, like Dallas, are only 3-3 on the season but they at least have one signature win as they handed Green Bay (now 5-1) their only loss of the season. That is the same Packers team that beat the Cowboys. Also, Philly absolutely dominated the Jets and the Cowboys are off a loss to the Jets in New York last week. The Eagles are getting a little help back in the secondary this week and that will be a key against Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Note that Dallas has beaten Philly 3 straight times but one of those victories was the meaningless season finale two years ago when the Eagles were resting players for their playoff run which culminated in a Super Bowl Title. That said though, Philadelphia certainly hasn't forgotten about being swept by their most hated rivals since taking home the Lombardi trophy! It is payback time Sunday night in Big D and right now, Carson Wentz is playing more consistently than Prescott. Wentz has one more TD toss and HALF as many picks as Prescott so far this season. Also, the Eagles rush defense is one of the best in the league and Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott has struggled against top competition this season. When Philly is playing with revenge against an NFC foe and the Eagles are on the road and entering the game off an ugly ATS loss by a double digit margin, they are 8-1 ATS! After getting embarrassed at Minnesota last week, the Eagles come out with fire this week and get their revenge. Look for the Eagles to get the upset but I'll grab the points as added insurance. 10* PHILADELPHIA | |||||||
10-20-19 | Vikings v. Lions +2.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #458 Sunday 8* Detroit Lions (+) vs Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - The Lions are on a short week coming off a Monday Night trip to Lambeau Field. However, the set-up here is otherwise perfect. Detroit is back at home after falling just short against the Packers. The Lions catch the Vikings off a huge win over the Eagles last week. Detroit has double revenge here from getting swept by Minnesota last season. Also, the Vikings have struggled early this season on the road in divisional action as they already lost at Green Bay and Chicago. The Lions have covered 6 of their last 8 games overall. The Vikings, in games 5 through 8 of a season, when on the road after an ATS win by a double digit margin, have gone 2-9 ATS. In other words, don't be surprised if they fall flat away from home after trouncing Philly in Minnesota last week. As for the Lions, they are on a 4-0 ATS run but have lost SU each of the last two weeks. Note that, under head coach Matt Patricia, the Lions are 4-1 ATS when they enter a game off consecutive SU losses. Detroit, in games 5 through 8 of a season, when facing a team with a winning record are 10-2 ATS when coming off a SU loss in divisional action! After getting swept by the Vikings last season, the Lions respond in their first opportunity against them this season. 8* DETROIT | |||||||
10-19-19 | Army v. Georgia State +5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #324 Saturday 8* Georgia State Panthers (+) vs Army Black Knights @ 7 ET - The Panthers coaching staff includes personnel very familiar with the option. That gives Georgia State an added edge here that most teams don't have when facing Army. Additionally, the Black Knights offense has actually struggled this season and ranks #117 in the nation based on total yardage. Conversely, the Panthers offense ranks 19th in the nation based on total yardage. I am aware of the fact that Army has the much better ranking defense in this match-up. But again, the fact that the Black Knights are now running into a team whose coaches have experience in how to defense the option attack which Army employs certainly gives a bit of an edge there. Additionally, the way the Georgia State offense has been playing, I don't see Army being able to shut them down. The Panthers also have the home field edge here and have scored 31 or more points in 5 of their 6 games this season! This is just the 3rd home game of the season for Georgia State and, in the first two, they scored an average of 50 points per game! Last week's loss at Western Kentucky was the 3rd time this season that Army has been held to 14 points or less. The Black Knights have now lost back to back games SU and are also on an 0-3 ATS run. On the other hand, Georgia State is off back to back wins and covers. Momentum clearly in favor of the Panthers in this one and I'll grab the home dog as they stay hot. 8* GEORGIA STATE | |||||||
10-19-19 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -6.5 | Top | 33-37 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #688 Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - I am well aware of the fact that Calgary has had trouble covering the spread this season but in this revenge game I foresee them getting a big home win. The odds makers opened this one up with a line of -7 with good reason. The fact is that the Stampeders are 6-2 at home this season and also 6-1 in divisional games. Note that Winnipeg is only 3-5 on the road this season. The Blue Bombers got a win last week but they previously had lost 4 of 5. Unlike slumping Winnipeg, Calgary actually entered last week's action having won 4 of 5 SU and they won again last week! The Stamps have dominated this series long-term and, having lost at Winnipeg at earlier this season (a rare loss for them against the Blue Bombers) I know they won't take their foot off the gas in this one. As a result, look for a home win by a double digit margin. 10* CALGARY | |||||||
10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -4 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #390 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Baylor Bears @ 4 ET - The Bears are 6-0 on the season and, for the first time under head coach Rhule, are ranked in the top 25. That said, the odds makers must have made some kind of mistake here, right? After all, how can the unranked Cowboys be favored over a Baylor team that has won 8 straight games dating back to last season? Exactly! Don't be fooled. It is no mistake. The odds makers know what they are doing. The Bears are off a tough game where they had to rally to force OT and ended up winning in double-OT over Texas Tech. Keep in mind, this was a game in which Baylor was favored by double digits so, in other words, quite unimpressive. Speaking of unimpressive, look at the Bears schedule this season! That said, they now face their toughest test of the season and I like an Oklahoma State team playing at home and that comes in rested off a bye week last week! The situation is set up perfect for the Cowboys to roll at home and their potent offense won't take their foot off the gas either. That's because last year the Bears took it to Oklahoma State and won the game 35-31. Now it is time for payback! The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 home games against Baylor. Also, note that the host has won 8 of the last 9 meetings between these teams SU. While the Bears are off a dramatic win last week, the Cowboys suffered a loss by 10 to the Red Raiders two weeks ago at Texas Tech. That was prior to the OSU bye. That is noteworthy here as Oklahoma State is 7-0 ATS the last 7 times in their first game after playing Texas Tech. Also, when playing with extra rest following a SU loss by a double digit margin, the Cowboys are 9-1 ATS! 10* OKLAHOMA STATE | |||||||
10-19-19 | Purdue +18 v. Iowa | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #343 Saturday 8* Purdue Boilermakers (+) @ Iowa Hawkeyes @ Noon ET - Ideal set up for grabbing a huge underdog in what should actually be a very competitive game. Of course in comparing Iowa and Purdue, the Hawkeyes are the much better team and plus are at home for this one. However, the Boilermakers enter this game off a confidence-boosting 40-14 win over Maryland and they catch Iowa off very physical and emotionally draining losses at Michigan and versus Penn State the past two weeks. Of course the Hawkeyes want to get back into the win column and I certainly expect them to do that here. However, how much will they have left in the tank in terms of truly putting on a beatdown of a Big Ten rival that will certainly have no shortage of emotion for this game. This spread is around 18 and, keep in mind, the Hawkeyes have been held to scoring 18 points or less in 3 of their past 4 games. Also, Purdue is playing their 7th game of the season and they've only had 2 ugly losses this season. The Boilermakers other 2 losses were tight and, with last week's win over the Terrapins, they now have 2 SU wins this season as well. The visitor is actually 9-0 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these teams and the Boilermakers do have a history of playing well here. They made some changes to their O-line last week and their back-up QB had a huge game as a result. Iowa, of course, has a very tough defense, but this road dog has some confidence now and the Hawkeyes defensive energy is a little worn down after facing the Wolverines and Nittany Lions the past two weeks. 8* PURDUE | |||||||
10-18-19 | Toronto +10.5 v. Montreal | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - The Alouettes have already clinched their playoff position. Of course Montreal does not want to go into the post-season on a losing streak but the fact is they are not highly motivated for a blowout win here either. Even if they were I am not sure they would get it as the Als have been scuffling a bit and plus QB Adams was a turnover machine last week! McLeod Bethel-Thompson returned to the starting role for the Argonauts last week and they got a much-needed win versus Ottawa. Trust me, I know that Toronto is not a very good football team as they have had a frustrating season. But some recent organizational changes as well as the strong QB play they got last week plus the fact this is a divisional match-up for pride...all of these factors have me very happy to grab the double digits in points being offered here. The Argos will go hard here and I am not so sure the Als will even be able to match their intensity considering their playoff position is set and they already won at Toronto earlier this season. Now the Argonauts seek to return the favor at Montreal! While they may not get the outright win I do expect this game to be decided by a TD or less! Grab the generous points! The Alouettes are 6-14 ATS (and SU!) the last 20 times they have faced a team with a losing record! Tonight's game is likely to be a much closer game than many are expecting. 10* TORONTO | |||||||
10-18-19 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #310 Friday 10* Top Play Florida Atlantic Owls (-) vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 6:30 ET - The Owls got blasted at Marshall last season and are looking forward to revenge here at home. Florida Atlantic is lead by head coach Lane Kiffin and he is on a 13-6 ATS run in games against Conference USA opponents. The Thundering Herd have been trending the other direction as they have lost the money in 13 of their past 18 games! Marshall is off a non-covering win against a bad Old Dominion team and the Thundering Herd entered that game having scored an average of just 16.8 points per game in their 4 prior games. That has a lot to with QB Green not exactly "lighting it up" for the Thundering Herd. On the other hand, Owls QB Robison certainly has been strong this season for FAU. With a very manageable number at home I have no hesitation in laying the short number here. In Kiffin's first year on the job the Owls went 9-0 in conference action in 2017. However, in 2018 they went only 3-5 SU. Of those 5 SU losses, 3 of the opponents were to be faced by FAU again this season. Those 3 were Charlotte, Middle Tennessee, and Marshall. So far the Owls are 2-0 on the revenge tour with wins over the 49ers and Blue Raiders. Now it is time to make it a 3-0 revenge tour sweep by knocking off the Thundering Herd and I look for the Owls to do just that! 10* FLORIDA ATLANTIC | |||||||
10-17-19 | Chiefs -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-6 | Win | 102 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #303 Thursday 10* Top Play Kansas City Chiefs (-) @ Denver Broncos @ 8:20 ET - Broncos off a home shutout win while the Chiefs are off a home upset loss. That makes this the perfect set up for backing the small home favorite. Patrick Mahomes (ankle) has been upgraded to probable for this game. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid's teams are 11-3 ATS when they enter a game off a straight up loss in non-divisional action and are facing a team off a straight up win. KC is now off back to back losses after a 4-0 start while the Broncos are off back to back wins after an 0-4 start. That makes this the ideal spot to back Kansas City. Denver has gotten the cash just once in their last seven meetings with the Chiefs and the Broncos have not gotten the cash a single time in their last five as a host in this series! There is an old adage about "defense wins football games" and I am well aware of the fact that Denver has the much better defense in this match-up. However, not only is Kansas City's offense much better than the Broncos offensive attack, this one is also simply very strong from a situational standpoint. I don't see KC losing 3 straight and I don't see the Broncos winning 3 straight. That said, I have no hesitation in taking advantage of the line move here and laying the short number with the Chiefs. 10* KANSAS CITY | |||||||
10-17-19 | UL-Lafayette -6 v. Arkansas State | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #305 Thursday 8* UL-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns (-) @ Arkansas State @ 7:30 ET - UL Lafayette is off a low-scoring loss but they faced a tough Appalachian State team. Now the Ragin Cajuns face the struggling defense of Arkansas State and I expect this one will turn into a road road. UL Lafayette entered their game against the Mountaineers having averaged nearly 550 yards and 45 points per game! Their offense will surely bounce back against a Red Wolves defense that has been hurt (literally) by injuries this season. Arkansas State has allowed averages of 45 points per game and over 600 yards a game the past month. The Ragin Cajuns are on a 7-1 ATS run (not including bowl game) in their last 8 games played away from home! The road warriors get the job done again Thursday as they bounce back off their first ATS loss of the season. Arkansas State is off a bye week which was preceded by them getting blasted 52-38 at Georgia State. The Red Wolves are 0-6 ATS when they are a dog of 6.5 points or less and off a game in which they allowed 36 points or more. The Ragin Cajuns are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams. 8* UL LAFAYETTE | |||||||
10-13-19 | Titans +2 v. Broncos | Top | 0-16 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #271 Sunday NFL 10* Top Play Tennessee Titans (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET - The Titans lost to the Bills by 7 points last week but they missed 4 field goals in that game! As for the Broncos, they are off their first win of the season and it was an upset win at Los Angeles over the Chargers. After that big road win over a division rival, Denver is in the perfect spot to take a tumble back down to reality this week. The win last week for the Broncos was their first ATS cover too in their past 9 games! As for the Titans, they have covered 5 of their last 6 non-divisional road games. Tennessee's strength on offense is their running game. The Broncos weakness on the other side of the ball is stopping the run. That said, and with Denver off a win and the Titans off a loss, the road dog is the play here! In games 5 through 8 of a season, when Tennessee is off a SU loss and facing an opponent off an outright upset win as an underdog, the Titans have gone 9-2 ATS. Also when in games 5 through 8 of a season and off an ATS loss where they missed covering by a double digit margin, the Titans have gone 9-2 ATS in their next game when that game is against an opponent with a losing record on the season. The Broncos, in games 5 through 8 of a season, are 0-7 ATS off a divisional game and facing an opponent off a non-divisional game. Another issue for Denver here is they have a huge game coming up Thursday as it is a divisional game hosting the Chiefs. That makes this a sandwich spot for the Broncos (off a big divisional game and with a big divisional game up next). The fact their next game is Thursday also hurts Denver in this one. Look for the Titans to get the upset. 10* TENNESSEE | |||||||
10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #266 Sunday NFL 8* Los Angeles Rams (-) vs San Francisco 49ers @ 4:05 ET - This line opened up in the 4.5 range and is now down to a -3 as of early game day morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am going against the line move and backing the favorite in this one. I had my eyes on this match-up when the lines first came out as the Niners are off to a surprising 4-0 start this season but off a Monday night game versus the Browns. Now San Francisco catches an angry Rams team off back to back losses. Los Angeles laid an egg two weeks ago in their loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Then they fell short at Seattle in the Thursday night game last week. The Rams missed a late field goal that would have won the game. That said, LA has plenty of motivation here plus they have a significant rest edge since they played on Thursday of last week while the Niners are on a short week since they played on Monday. Los Angeles is on an 8-3 ATS run in divisional action while the 49ers have failed to cover 5 of their last 6 in NFC West action. This is the perfect spot to back a Rams team that blasted San Francisco by an average margin of 22.5 points per game in their two meetings last season. Yes I know the Niners were without Garoppolo in those games but LA didn't exactly just squeak by in those games either. Lay the short number here! 8* LOS ANGELES RAMS | |||||||
10-13-19 | Eagles +3.5 v. Vikings | 20-38 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #261 Sunday 8* Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Minnesota Vikings @ 1 ET - Revenge game for Eagles after the Vikings (who had playoff revenge) handed Philly a 2 point loss in their meeting last season in Philadelphia. Now Minnesota is laying 3.5 points here after they ran all over the Giants last week. The Vikings won't be able to run like that this week as they face an Eagles run defense that ranks #1 in the NFL. That said, the game is in the hands of Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins. Of course there has been a lot of negative talk going on around (and within!) the Vikings organization when it comes to their QB situation. That was quieted last week because they ran the ball so well but that was against a weak Giants team. Now the Vikes face a Super Bowl contender known for stout run defense. This match-up sets up perfectly for the Eagles as a sizable underdog here. Philadelphia has covered 6 of its last 8 games as a non-divisional road dog. This game will come down to Carson Wentz and Cousins. That said, whom do you want running your offense in crunch time? Not only do we get Wentz here, we get more than a field goal on our side. Although I am making this play fully expecting an outright Eagles win, I could certainly see this game being decided on a late-game field goal as well. In other words, there is a lot of value with having the 3.5 points on your side in this one! 8* PHILADELPHIA | |||||||
10-12-19 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #129 Saturday 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (+) @ Minnesota Golden Gophers @ 7:30 ET - I am aware of the injury issues for the Huskers and that includes QB Adrian Martinez and WR JD Speilman. My sources are indicating both will play at Minnesota tonight. If that would end up not happening, the fact is that I still expected Nebraska to get the cover here and they absolutely have a shot at the outright upset too. The Golden Gophers are 5-0 on the season but they are so vastly over-rated at this point. Minnesota has seen 4 of their 5 wins come by 7 points or less and, keep in mind, their schedule has been very weak. The Gophers have beaten South Dakota State (FCS School), Fresno State (2 OT), and Georgia Southern (Sun Belt school). Their two big ten wins came against Purdue (QB Sindelar HURT) and Illinois (one of worst Big Ten programs). Now Minnesota faces a Nebraska team that is 4-2 on the season and that blew a huge lead in an OT loss at Colorado and whose only other loss was against a Ohio State team that is one of the best teams in the nation this year on BOTH sides of the ball. That said, the Huskers are flying under the radar a bit heading into this contest. As for Minny, their 5-0 record has them a little over-hyped right now and I feel an upset is going to be the end result in this one Saturday night. If the Huskers fall short of that they'll still get the cover in my opinion. The Cornhuskers hammered Minnesota by 25 points last year and have won and covered in 3 of the last 4 meetings. Nebraska has covered 22 of their last 32 road games. If Martinez can't go or gives it a go and then must exit, note that Noah Vedral has a dozen games of experience and the back-up QB did lead the game winning drive last week. The Corhuskers lone loss (ATS and SU) in their last 4 meetings with the Golden Gophers was in their last visit to Minnesota. The Huskers got hammered in that one in 2017 and now it is payback time. 10* NEBRASKA |
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