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Rotation #53: NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 -115 in Winnipeg Jets vs Colorado Avalanche @ 9:30 ET - Coming into this series Winnipeg is the team known for getting solid goaltending and they had allowed less than 2.5 goals per game this season. The Avalanche were known as the more wild team that scores goals like crazy and sometimes risks things defensively as a result of being so aggressive on the attack. That said, I like the chances the Jets offense helps them get back into this series with a win tonight. However, they have been surprisingly poor in their own end for much of this series. Winnipeg has seen Colorado score at least 5 goals in all 4 games! Couple that with the fact that the Jets are on home ice and fighting for their survival in this first round series and you can see why I am expecting plenty of goals here. The Jets will again struggle to contain the Avalanche. Colorado can afford to be aggressive as they have a 3-1 series lead. At the same time, Winnipeg is going to give the best effort they can on home ice to extend their season so goals should fly here. The Jets had scored an average of 4 goals per game last 11 games (including 3.7 in the first 3 games of this series) before they were held to just 1 goal in the Game 4 loss at Colorado. Given numbers like this and the situation I am expecting a 5-4 type game here. Certainly asking for at least a 4-3 type final is not asking too much given all of the above. OVER 6.5 -115 in Winnipeg

Rotation #565: Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers +4.5 -115 @ New York Knicks @ 7 ET - If you look at the 3 match-ups today, the Magic/Cavs series is tied up at 2 and looks like it will be a dogfight until the end. I am staying away. Then the other two series going today include this game and the Pacers/Bucks and both of these series are 3-1. The key here is that I want to grab that hungry dog that is down 3-1 but the Bucks still have a couple of key injury issues. The 76ers, on the other hand, are mostly healthy even though Embiid continues to labor at times. This is Philly's season right here and I expect Embiid and Company to give maximum effort here in hopes of sending this series back to Philadelphia for a Game 6. The Knicks are actually the more banged up team now in comparison with Philly. New York has been strong in this series but there is something funny here with this line. It looks too short on the Knicks and you know what that usually means! Considering how the Knicks won Games 1 and 2 at home and had this same line but also now just won at Philly in Game 4 and now have the line in the same range as Games 1 and 2 even though they are one win away from eliminating the Sixers...this looks like a trap line to me and even though I expect the Knicks to ultimately win the series, I would not be surprised to send this series heading back to Philly. The Sixers will be hungrier than ever here and they take advantage of the situation relating to some banged up Knicks. Will grab the points just in case but likely not needed. PHLADELPHIA +4.5 -115

Rotation #951: MLB Tuesday OVER 8 +100 in Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:40 ET - Sometimes some of the best situations are in the ugliest match-ups and I believe that is the case again here! The Rockies struggle at the plate when away from home. The Marlins essentially struggle everywhere when it comes to hitting. However, part of the reason these teams struggle so bad also has to do with pitching. Not only are each of these teams scheduled to start pitchers here who have been struggling, these two bullpens have two of the highest ERAs in the league so far this season! So there should be runs early and throughout this game. Sixto Sanchez could be more of an opener again in this game and that means plenty of a Marlins bullpen involved again. As for the Rockies, expected starter Ryan Feltner has allowed 10 earned runs in his last 2 starts and also has given up 27 hits in 14 innings over his last 3 starts! Remember even if these teams have struggled at the plate as noted above, facing struggling pitching can get guys on track in a hurry. We are still talking about major league hitters here! We will take advantage of a low total of 8 runs available with no juice. 12 of the Marlins 17 home games this season have totaled at least 9 runs! Also, Colorado has played 15 games away from home this season (including the 2-game series they just had in Mexico City) and 10 of the 15 totaled at least 8 runs. 9 of those 10 totaled at least 9 runs! This one will too. OVER 8 +100 in Miami

Rotation #224205: Champions League: Tuesday OVER 2.75 -115 in Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid @ 3 ET - Each of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals and this one is poised to do the same. Those 5 meetings have averaged 4 goals apiece. Bayern Munich appears to be getting some good news on the injury front entering this one. Also, Real Madrid is missing a defender (Dani Carvajal) for this one. I like the fact that both clubs come in with plenty of positive momentum and have been playing well with wins piling up. Bayern knows they need to be aggressive here and take advantage of home pitch and get the upper hand in the first leg of this! Bayern won the most recent meeting 3-1 but this followed Real Madrid notching 4 wins and a draw in the 5 most recent meetings prior to that. Bayern has not enjoyed success in recent trips to Real Madrid so, again, this one is of paramount importance for the hosts to get an early jump. But the visitors have been rolling and often are goal-laden when these clubs meet. Real Madrid has scored 11 goals in the last 5 meeting between these clubs. That is 2.2 goals per match. Bayern Munich has scored 36 goals in last 13 games for an average of nearly 3 goals per match! Real Madrid has scored 2.2 goals per match in their last 10 matches overall! So you have a situation here in which the goals should fly once again and I am expecting 4 or more goals here so asking for at least 3 is not a big ask the way I see this one playing out. OVER 2.75 -115 in Bayern Munich

Rotation #562: NBA Monday Denver Nuggets -7 vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 10 ET - Line value here as you know the Nuggets are going to be focused here after losing at LA in Game 4. The last thing that Denver wants to do now is to have to go back to Los Angeles for Game 6. That said, I expect them to leave no doubt here! The intensity level of the Nuggets will be sky high for this one and they will feed off the home crowd. Remember Denver swept LA out of the playoffs last year. They then won all 3 regular season meetings this season. All 3 of those wins in the regular season were by 8 or more points and then the Nuggets won the first 3 games of this series before the Game 4 loss. In other words, it is pretty easy to see that Denver has the Lakers number and one game does not change all that. Davis and James led the way in the Game 4 win but a bigger key might have been that Russell and Reaves both scored well in the same game finally. That was the first time in this series however and with this game back in Denver again, look for at least 1 of the 2 to struggle again here. That makes a big difference because Davis and James do need help of course against the defending champs. Vanderbilt could be back here for LA but he has not played in 3 months. If anything, his possible return is helping to keep this line lower than it should be. Nuggets will be hell bent on finishing this thing tonight. In the thin air of Denver, they pull away as this game goes on and the Lakers wear down late. The Nuggets are 3-0 SU/ATS L3 times when off a loss and all 3 wins were by at least 15 points. More of the same here! DENVER -7

Rotation #43: NHL Monday Dallas Stars Money Line -110 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:30 ET - The Stars got the OT win at Vegas Saturday to get back into this series. Though Dallas was just one shot away from going down 3 games to 0 in this series, the fact is it did not happen and the fact is the Stars should have an easier time of it Saturday. At the point in the game when Dallas was up 2-0 it easily could have already been 4-0. They had some great chances that that easily could have been goals. The Stars had heavily outshot Vegas at the point in the game when the Golden Knights tied it up at 2-2. Also, Dallas outshot the Knights by a solid margin in Game 1 as well even though they lost that game. The fact is that the Stars have looked like the better team for much of this series even though they are down 2 games to 1. Also, the road team has won each of the last 5 games between these teams so it should not come as a surprise that the Stars are the slight favorite in Game 4 even though, again, the game is in Vegas. Remember this series is revenge for Dallas as their season came to an end in the playoffs last season because of Vegas. The Stars are proving their revenge mission is not done yet and that OT win changes everything. Dallas could (should!) be up 2-1 already in this series and now that they are back in it and have surging confidence from the win Saturday, look out! Stars are the play again Monday. DALLAS -110

Rotation #919: MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies -133 @ Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 ET - The Phillies are winning and that is even with some of their bigger bats like Bryce Harper a little quiet early this season. Also, Nick Castellanos has had a dreadful start to this season. But the Phillies are getting production from many others up and down this lineup and that has created excellent line value here. The Phillies have won 4 straight and the Angels have lost 4 straight. Also, Christopher Sanchez has a 2.96 ERA this season. No, he is certainly not a Nola or Wheeler or Suarez but he has pitched quite well in most outings and had a 3.44 ERA last season too. As for the Angels, they are starting Griffin Canning and he has been a little better last two starts but still not spectacular by any stretch. Canning has a 7.50 ERA on the season plus faces a surging Phillies lineup here. Philadelphia has now won 11 of 13 since an 8-8 starts and their last 10 wins have seen them average 7 runs scored per victory! As for the Angels, Mike Trout is hitting .226 and Ohtani is now with the other LA team of course! Los Angeles has lost 9 of 10 games and averaged scoring only 3 runs per game in the 9 defeats! The Angels just allowed 32 runs in losing 3 straight in a series sweep at the hands of a Twins team that had not been hitting well. Their bullpen is not in good shape as a result and the Phillies roll big here. PHILADELPHIA -133

Rotation #206997: Romania Liga 1 Monday: OVER 2.5 -145 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Universitatea Craiova @ 1:30 ET - Quick write-up here as this match goes in about 5 hours from the time I am writing it up. Universitatea Craiova and Rapid Bucuresti have seen 4 of last 6 meetings total at least 3 goals. Rapid has struggled in the play-off rounds and is still seeking their first win. Look for an extra push from them on the attack here as a result. However, the strength of Craiova has been their attack and they have a legitimate shot at finishing #2 in the league and will keep pushing to earn the full 3 points in the table and not settle for draws. That means a 2-1 final is more likely than the clubs settling for a 1-1 draw. Both clubs want a win even though it is for differing reasons. Note that Rapid has seen 8 of last 10 matches total at least 3 goals. Craiova is off a 1-0 loss but had seen 15 of 17 matches prior to that total at least 3 goals! In fact, they have not had B2B matches each total less than 3 goals since the first half of November! I like odds like these and will lay the extra juice to have the over 2.5 in this one! OVER 2.5 -145 in Rapid Bucuresti

Rotation #39: NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 +100 in LA Kings vs Edmonton Oilers @ 10:30 ET - This is a great spot for plenty of goals. The Kings were outshot 40-28 in Game 3 and lost embarrassingly 6 to 1 on home ice and now are down 2-1 in this series. That said, I fully expect LA to respond in desperation mode here but they can't stop this Oilers team! Edmonton has scored 17 goals so far in this series and their offensive production is in full-on playoff mode thus far. However, the flip side of the coin is that prior to Los Angeles surprisingly being held to only 1 goal in Game 3, the Oilers had allowed 4 or more goals in 4 straight games! Also, prior to the 6-1 home ice loss, take a look at the Kings last 10 home games of the regular season! LA won 9 of 10 and scored 4.1 goals per game. Asking for a 4-3 final here is not asking for too much and honestly a 5-4 game seems even more likely as the goals continue to fly in this series! OVER 6.5 +100 in LA Kings

Rotation #555: NBA Sunday Minnesota Timberwolves -115 @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:30 ET - The Timberwolves are dominating this series and I don't see that changing here. If the Suns were going to get back in this series it would have been Game 3. But they again got dominated on the boards, just like Game 1, and this was even though they were at home. Phoenix just has not looked good on either end of the floor and the Timberwolves would love to give their big men extra rest by completing the sweep by wrapping up this series with a Game 4 win in Phoenix. Note that Minnesota has averaged 14.6 more rebounds per game than the Suns in this series. With that kind of an edge on the glass a team has to shoot very well to beat you. Phoenix has not been shooting well plus this Timberwolves defense deserves credit for that too. They were one of the top teams defensively in the regular season as well so this comes as no surprise. It is evident watching this series that one team wants it more. The Suns had a chance to make a series of it with a Game 3 win but they are now defeated both physically and mentally. Their season ends tonight. MINNESOTA -115

Rotation #957: MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies +135 @ San Diego Padres @ 4:10 ET - Just as I stated with yesterday's play on the Phillies as well, this one is all about the line value as even though Taijuan Walker is making his first start of the season after coming back from an injury and Michael King has some decent numbers early this season, there are more factors than just that! What about the lineups and current trending here? The Phillies rolled to a 9-3 win Friday and a 5-1 win yesterday and their sluggers were crushing the ball in that big win Friday too. This Philly team has had many bigger performances at the plate of late and if some of their guys that had been a bit quiet early this season are starting to get it going...look out! The Phillies hit 5 home runs Friday and then Bohm had 4 RBI yesterday too. They have now won 10 of 12 games and have scored an average of about 7 runs in their last 9 wins! As for the Padres, even playing at Colorado did not help their slumbering bats too much. In a 4-game series they had one 10-9 loss. However, in their other 9 games that are part of their current 3-7 slide, they have scored an average of only 3 runs per game including just 1 run in yesterday's loss! In 8 of their last 11 home games the Padres have scored 3 or less runs! Even in a pitching match-up that most would view as favoring the Padres, don't be surprised if the Phillies prove to be the much stronger team at the plate again today. Note that the Phillies road batting average is more than 25 points higher than the Padres home batting average this season. Taking the hotter team and the better hitting team at a solid underdog price is the way to play this one. Many will back the Padres to avoid the sweep but spots like this often lead to the most value on the contrarian side. I am contrarian here and I look for an underdog upset here! PHILADELPHIA +135

Rotation #200073: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3 -120 in Tottenham vs Arsenal @ 9 AM ET - This is a great spot to expect goals as Tottenham has been off for 2 weeks thinking about an ugly 4-0 loss to Newcastle in their most recent match! Now the Hotspur are on their home pitch and ready to respond in a huge way and I look for them to do just that! The Hotspur have scored an average of 2 goals per match this season. Of course  here they face the club at the top of the table and, as you would expect as a top club, Arsenal has scored an average of 2.4 goals per match this season. Also, Tottenham surely benefited from the extra rest and Richarlison particularly benefited. He is ready to go here and, overall, so too is this Tottenham club after the ugly loss. The benefit of getting this total at 3 goals is a big one and note that 4 of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals. Also, Arsenal flying high with confidence after a 5-0 win over Chelsea but you know Tottenham is going to bring a huge effort here at home and coming off an ugly road beating two weeks ago. The end result here should be a back-and-forth affair and a 2-2 type match would not surprise me in the least. Overall, 14 of last 15 Tottenham matches in EPL action have totaled at least 3 goals! This one will too! 12 straight home matches in EPL for Tottenham have totaled 3 or more goals. Those matches averaged 3.8 goals apiece. Given all of the above, as well as this situation, over is the play here! OVER 3 -120 in Tottenham

#905 MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies +103 @ San Diego Padres @ 8:40 ET - This one is all about the line value as certainly I respect Cease and he is off to a great start this season but so too is Suarez. That said, what about the lineups and current trending here? The Phillies rolled to a 9-3 win yesterday and their sluggers were crushing the ball. This Philly team has had many bigger performances at the plate of late and if some of their guys that had been a bit quiet early this season are starting to get it going...look out! The Phillies hit 5 home runs yesterday and have now won 9 of 11 games and have scored an average of 7 runs in their last 8 wins! As for the Padres, even playing at Colorado did not help their slumbering bats too much. In a 4-game series they had one 10-9 loss. However, in their other 8 games that are part of their current 3-6 slide, they have scored an average of only 3 runs per game! In 7 of their last 10 home games the Padres have scored 3 or less runs! Even against Cease, don't be surprised if the Phillies prove to be the much stronger team at the plate again today. Note that the Phillies road batting average is more than 20 points higher than the Padres home batting average this season. Suarez has not allowed any runs in the 22 innings spanning his last 3 starts! PHILADELPHIA +103

Rotation #547: NBA Thursday Denver Nuggets Money Line -155 @ LA Lakers @ 8:30 ET - As long-time followers know, I play a lot of money line dogs. This is a rare case where I am playing a money line favorite in NBA. I expect this series ends tonight. The Nuggets are the defending NBA champs and they certainly know plenty about the importance of rest. With the Wolves on the edge of sweeping the Suns and other series seeing the Mavs and Thunder look quite dominant against their respective foes, Denver knows a sweep would certainly help them prepare even better for the tough road ahead. The concerning thing for the Lakers is they had a 10 point lead after the first quarter in Game 3 and yet lost by 17 points the rest of the way in the eventual 7 point loss. The Nuggets dominated on the glass in that game too. Both teams shot poorly and yet Denver still was the team to grind out the win. Also, the Lakers have been missing some depth players that still remain out. Then when you look at the star players like Davis and James, note that Davis is listed as questionable with a wrist issue and that is different from the back issue he has been playing through. As for LeBron, he is consistently on the injury report with his ankle issue but is he truly wearing down now? He was 1 of 6 from 3-point land on his home floor and he only had 6 rebounds in 42 minutes. Some extra time off between Games 3 and 4 - for example, like Embiid and Sixers have against Knicks - would certainly help James and Davis but that is not the case here. We could lay the 3.5 points here but I am more comfortable with the money line given there has already been a tight 2-point win in this series also. DENVER -155

Rotation #30 NHL Saturday Toronto Maple Leafs -115 vs Boston Bruins @ 8 ET - This series has been back and forth so far and I look for that pattern to continue here. The Bruins won 4-2 in Game 3 after the Maple Leafs had bounced back from a series opening loss by notching a 3-2 win in Game 2. In the Game 3 loss on home ice, the Maple Leafs played the Bruins even in 5 on 5 but they lost the special teams battle. Toronto was 0 for 5 on the power play while Boston only had 3 opportunities but cashed 2 of them! That ended up being the difference in the 4-2 Bruins win. Note that in the regular season there was not a big disparity between these teams special teams. Leafs had the slightly better power play while the Bruins do have an edge on the penalty kill. That said, don't expect a repeat of Game 3 when it comes to special teams. The Leafs might finally have Nylander back on the ice for this critical Game 4. He appears to be nearing his return and had 40 goals and 58 assists in a huge regular season. The Bruins have been alternating goalies but will that work out here? That would mean Ullmark again in Game 4 but, though he played decently, he was the loser in Game 2 and Swayman has played even better. The Bruins goalie rotation could play havoc with the team eventually and this will be interesting to watch here in Game 4. Either way, I like the Leafs to respond big on home ice and even this series up. The Maple Leafs did outshoot the Bruins by a combined 70 to 54 in the first two games of this series. They respond big here. TORONTO -115

#923 MLB Saturday Houston Astros -1.5 -155 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:05 ET in Mexico City, MX - Note the total of 17 runs set for this game. This one is played in high altitude and last season's 2-game series here for MLB featured a ton of runs when the Padres faced the Giants. In this match-up I give a big edge to the Astros and feel they are the ones driving the high total posted on this game. I don't trust the Rockies to keep up. First off, Blanco has been fantastic compared to Quantrill this season. Also, Colorado's lineup does not have experience against Blanco while the Astros lineup does have experience against Quantrill. The key here in a hitter-friendly park is a lot of strikeouts and a lack of strong contact resulting in big hits. Look at the key numbers here and you will see that, both pitchers have logged 27 innings but Quantrill has allowed 28 hits with 4 homers and only 15 strikeouts while Blanco has 22 strikeouts and only 11 hits with just 1 homer! These teams have identical 7-19 records but the Astros are on a 5-game losing streak while Rockies have been a little better of late. So why is Houston such a massive favorite here? Exactly! The odds makers are looking at the same thing sharp bettors are looking at here! Per all of the above, lay it with confidence here! HOUSTON -1.5 -155

Rotation #200049: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3.5 -110 in Newcastle United vs Sheffield United @ 10 AM ET - Big total here but fully justified! Newcastle is angry off a shutout loss on the road. Now they are back home and favored by 2 goals on the goal line here. They will take advantage of facing a Sheffield United club that, amazingly, has allowed 92 goals in 34 matches this season! Newcastle is known for scoring well at home and they have tallied 43 in their 17 matches as a host this season. They could get this total all by themselves as scoring 4 would not surprise me. Newcastle won the reverse fixture 8-0 this season! Surely Sheffield would like revenge for that bloodbath at home but they are catching Newcastle as the wrong time to exact revenge. Sheffield should get on the scoresheet here as they have been finding the back of the net with regularity. The problem is they can stop no one and that is why I am looking for at least a 3-1 final here! Sheffield has played 16 matches since the calendar turned the page to 2024 and 14 of the 16 totaled at least 4 goals! Sheffield has scored 11 goals in last 7 matches and they will push hard here as they have nothing to lose. However, this Newcastle club is getting a little healthier again and they have the striking ability to make Sheffield pay early and often in this one on the counterattack. No club in the league has scored more than Newcastle's 43 in home matches. No club in the league is anywhere close to conceding 92 goals on the campaign like Sheffield. Look for another wild one here as the hosts will not let up here coming off a 2-0 loss at Crystal Palace. They are fired up to respond on their home pitch. OVER 3.5 -110 in Newcastle United

Rotation #535: NBA Friday Los Angeles Clippers +4.5 @ Dallas Mavericks @ 8 ET - Notice the line flip here and yes the status of Kawhi Leonard is up in the air but the Clippers won Game 1 without him and then lost Game 2 with him. But why are the Mavs now laying 4.5 just because they are at home? These teams were both about the same on the road as at home. That said, the Clips went off the board as a favorite in Game 2 because of Leonard playing but now they are catching 4.5 points on the road even though he might play again plus even though the Clips won Game 1 when he did not play. I like value and this one shapes up to be a highly competitive series with possible tight finishes just like the 3 point win the Mavs just had. If you look at the Mavs last 6 home games, they are 5-1 SU but with 1 of those wins in OT and 2 of the other wins by just a bucket. There is a lot of value here with 4.5 points. The Clippers have won a modest 5 of 9 games but 2 of those 4 losses by 3 or less points. Also, one of the only two bigger losses was a season finale after Clips already clinched the division. The Clips were outscored by 18 points from 3 point land in the 3 points loss in Game 2 and, overall, it was unusually poor shooting that did in LA in that game. In Game 1 they shot very well and never trailed and led by as many as 29. After also having more shots from the field in Game 2 but shooting poorly, there is solid value here and we'll take it with the points. LA CLIPPERS (+)

Rotation #19: NHL Friday OVER 5.5 -118 in Nashville Predators vs Vancouver Canucks @ 7:30 ET - The Canucks are expected to have DeSmith in goal again here. I know Demko did travel with the team but he is expected to miss more time and is merely traveling to be with the team and possibly help DeSmith with preparation, etc as much as he can. The fact is DeSmith struggled badly in Game 2 and now he goes on the road. Keep in mind, DeSmith had one good start at Edmonton but in his other 3 starts this month he has allowed 15 goals on 74 shots! Yes that is a save percentage under .800 and you know the Predators will be fired up here at home and will be pressuring him early and often. At the same time, the Canucks will have to now rely more on offensive prowess considering the goalie situation. Look for an entertaining affair here as I expect the Preds to pepper DeSmith with shots here but also expect the Canucks to battle back and you are looking at a game that could get to 3-3 at some point. This total at 5.5 goals is a great value should we see a 4-2 type game in this one. But both clubs enjoy offensive success in the zone here. The Canucks had scored at least 3 goals in 14 of 19 games prior to that 4-1 loss in Game 2 of this series. The Preds are rolling with confidence off a 4-1 road win and are back on home ice where they have averaged scoring 4 goals per game last dozen games! Per all of the above, I expect 7 or more here and we have the added cushion of 6 goals also producing a winning ticket here. I won't pass up this opportunity! OVER 5.5 -118 in Nashville

Rotation #962: MLB Friday Baltimore Orioles -1.5 -125 vs Oakland A's @ 7:05 ET - The Orioles are coming back from a west coast trip but had a day game Wednesday so their rest situation is actually better than the A's who played last night in the Bronx and got an upset win over the Yankees despite being outhit. Speaking of being outhit, the Athletics have now scored 3 or less runs in 7 straight games and 9 of their last 10 games! In those 9 games, Oakland has averaged 2.3 runs scored per game. Note that the Orioles, on the other hand, have won 8 of 10 games and scored an average of 6 runs in their last 15 games! 6 to 2 sounds about right to me here and truly this should be a blowout win for the hosts. Baltimore's slugging percentage is 115 points higher than that of Oakland so far this season. Also, Corbin Burnes has a respectable 2.76 ERA this season and a 3-0 record while allowing only 22 hits and striking out 29 in his 29 innings. Conversely, Oakland's Ross Stripling has give up 37 hits in his 28.2 innings and he is 0-5 with a 5.34 ERA. The O's are perfect in Burnes starts (5-0) while Stripling has taken the loss (0-5) in all of his 5 starts! Also, 5 of Oakland's last 6 losses by 2 or more runs. 14 of the Orioles 16 wins - including 7 of 8 at home - have been by 2+ runs! In other words, no hesitation in laying the run line here! BALTIMORE -1.5 -125

Rotation #206821: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Friday OVER 2.5 -102 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs Voluntari @ 1 ET - This one can be filed under the "someone knows something" category! Note that this one features Voluntari off a scoreless draw and Dinamo having seen each of their last 4 matches as a host total 2 or less goals. So, why is this total set at 2.5 goals? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you. Over is the play here. This one features two teams desperate for a full 3 points in the table and I also can not foresee either club being held off the scoresheet here. Looking for at least a 2-1 final. Note that 3 straight meetings between these clubs had totaled at least 3 goals prior to a 1-0 Dinamo win in the most recent match-up. Dinamo is off a 2-1 loss and has allowed 8 goals in last 6 matches. Voluntari, though from the Bucuresti area, is still playing on enemy turf for this match and their away matches have been high-scoring. Voluntari has gone over the total in 5 straight matches away from home. Those 5 matches have averaged 4.4 goals apiece. That run reaches 6 in a row here! OVER 2.5 -102 in Dinamo Bucuresti

Rotation #528: NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers -4.5 vs New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - If the Knicks had Julius Randle this would like be a sweep. However, as it stands now, the Sixers might win just one game. In my mind however, this is absolutely the game that happens. Philadelphia is angry about the way the final 30 seconds of that debacle played out in New York Monday when the Sixers had a 5 point lead evaporate and there were some questionable officiating moments. In any event, Philly found a way to lose that game but there are a couple of keys here as to why the Sixers should bounce back for a huge win in this one. The extra rest is huge for Philly as Embiid still trying to recover. Having 2 full off days between games is a big plus for the Sixers to rest up both mentally and physically. Also, other than Embiid and red hot All-Star Maxey, Philly did not get enough from their players in New York. Secondary role players - those outside of Philadelphia's big 1-2 punch - are likely to be much more comfortable on their home floor. I see the Sixers getting better shooting and better overall play from some of the key supporting cast. At the same time, the determination and effort of Embiid and Maxey is going to be off the charts here. Philadelphia's backs are against the wall now and they are angry. This is a can't lose game for Philly. Of course that does not always translate to a win but in this case, per all of the above, I would say the situation strongly favors a big Philly win. The Knicks have not shot all that well either and that was in New York. But Philly is fully capable of lighting it up with hot shooting when they are at home and it will be a raucous crowd here as well. Sixers poised to win this by double digits. The 76ers are 7-2 SU the last 9 times they have entered a game off B2B losses and all 7 wins were by at least a 6 point margin! This is the Sixers Game of the Year and you should see them play one of their best games of the season with intense defense and a much stronger shooting performance on their home floor. PHILADELPHIA -4.5

Rotation #9: NHL Thursday OVER 6 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Florida Panthers @ 7 ET - Notice the first two games only totaled 5 goals apiece. The 2nd game only had 4 goals in regulation. The 1st game was only 1-1 going to the 3rd period. What is my point? Well the point is...why do you think this total is a 6 even though the first two games played out like that? Exactly! Don't let this line fool you. The over is the play here. With the series shifting to Tampa Bay, you are going to see a desperate Lightning team here! The Bolts should come out strong and be very potent on the attack on their home ice where they have had so many great playoff moments in recent years! However, even with Tampa Bay coming up with a huge game here, this Panthers team is so strong and so potent on the attack. I know they have changed their style a bit since the coaching change to Paul Maurice prior to last season, but this is still a Panthers team that is lethal in finding the back of net with frequency. Before this playoff series started - again a pair of tight 3-2 Florida wins so far - the Panthers team that scored 22 goals over its final 6 regular season road games. As for the Bolts, they have scored 4 goal per game in their last 9 home games. Again, I know and 100% respect that this is playoff hockey but this situation as well as this line is telling you all you need to know about the total in this one! Look for a 4-3 type battle in this one! OVER 6 in Tampa Bay

Rotation #200037: English Premier League: Thursday OVER 3 -130 in Brighton & Hove vs Manchester City @ 3 ET - With Haaland scheduled to sit out this one for City, we get some line value with this total being held down at 3 goals. The fact is Haaland has not been playing well anyway in recent matches. Let him sit. There will be a strong effort from City here on the road to keep their hopes alive of finishing first. The big Arsenal win over Chelsea means Manchester City knows they need to win to keep pace. Brighton & Hove has had a disappointing stretch of play but they are still a different club when on their home pitch. I expect them to get on the board here and, of course, City is a sizable favorite here for a reason. That is why I can not see this match ending with anything less than 3 goals though I certainly am getting involved here with the expectation of 4 or more goals! City has scored 2.6 goals per match in their last 5 meetings with  Brighton & Hove. Also, Man City has scored 46 goals in last 17 road matches across all competitions. Brighton & Hove has struggled some recently but, as noted above, they can prove to be tougher on their home pitch. In league action this season, they have scored an average of 2 goals per match and have lost only twice in 15 matches! Look for a 3-2 or 3-1 type match here. It is no accident that City is favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line for this one even with Haaland slated to miss. The hosts play better at home but also can not stop a determined City attack that will be out to prove what they can do sans Haaland. OVER 3 -130 in Brighton & Hove 

Rotation #206961: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Thursday OVER 2.5 -120 in Universitatea Craiova vs CFR Cluj @ 2:45 ET - Since the regular season ended, Universitatea Craiova is the only club that has yet to have a draw. By the way, CFR Cluj has only one draw in their 5 matches since the end of the regular season. I like the odds on each club scoring here and I also like the odds on this one finding its way to at least a 2-1 final because there is a big push for each club to get the full 3 points in the table. Note that Universitatea Craiova has had 15 of last 17CF matches total at least 3 goals! The only ones that did not each totaled at least 2 goals! You can see why one should expect goals in this one! Also, CFR Cluj has both scored and conceded in 7 straight road matches! In those 7 away from home, CFR Cluj has seen those finals average nearly 4 goals apiece. With the home team normally dictating the pace I do expect the goals to fly here as CFR Cluj will have no choice but to try and attack and keep up in this one. CFR Cluj has a 5-1 loss and a 4-1 win in its two most recent road matches. More of the same here. OVER 2.5 -120 in Universitatea Craiova

Rotation #903: MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies -153 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 1:10 ET - The Phillies have now lost B2B games for the first time since their very first two games of the season. They should have Bryce Harper back for this game after he missed the first 3 games for paternity leave. Philadelphia will bounce back with Wheeler on the mound for this one. Don't let his 1-3 record fool you. Wheeler has been great this season! He has a 0.89 WHIP and a low ERA and has been piling up strikeouts. As for the Reds Martinez, he has a 4.76 ERA and has allowed 19 hits in 17 innings. By comparison, Wheeler has allowed 21 hits in 31 innings. The Phillies team batting average is 20 points higher than the Reds this season. Also, Martinez has struggled since moving into the starting rotation after first working long relief. Each of his last two starts were day games at home and he got roughed up in both. More of the same here and the road team rolls in this one. I don't want to get burned if the Phillies win by only a run so no run line for me but that is why a reduced unit play here on the money line is the way one can roll strong on this one. Lay it! PHILADELPHIA -153

Rotation #519: NBA Wednesday OVER 210.5 in Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 9:30 ET - The total on Game 1 was about a half-dozen points higher than this at tipoff. The game easily stayed under the total and now there has been an over-adjustment in game two. Not that the teams combined to make only 29.6% of their threes in Game 1. Also, the teams combined to make just 40.9% of their field goals overall and there were only 17 combined free throws made in the game. The point is that all of these numbers are unusually low and I expect a much better shooting effort in Game 2. The combined scoring of the 2nd and 3rd quarters was 108 points which translates to a 216 point total. Coincidentally that was the range of the posted total in Game 1 and so you can see where I am going with this. Lets take advantage of the special value here and look for these teams to both shoot better here. There were only 10 times this season that the Pelicans scored 100 or less points. 9 of the 10 times that happened their next game totaled at least 216 points! The Thunder had 4 games in which they were held to 100 or less points, their next game totaled at least 231 points in the very next game 3 of 4 times. The only time it did not the next game totaled 210 points! This total is 210.5 and given the history these teams have when off a rare grinder of a game, I like the odds on this one playing out in a much different way. We'll ride the over here and look for a bit of a shootout in Game 2 of what should be a thrilling series, even without Williamson. OVER 210.5 in Oklahoma City

Rotation #4 NHL Wednesday Dallas Stars -175 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:30 ET - The Stars outshot the Knights in every single period of the Game 1 loss. What went wrong? Vegas was 2 for 2 on the power play and the goals were key. The first gave the Golden Knights a 1-0 lead. The 2nd came right after the Stars had cut a 2-0 deficit to 2-1. That made it 3-1 and Dallas just never could get the equalizer even though they battled hard throughout. Give Vegas credit as they got the early jump on Dallas and stole Game 1 on the road. However, there is a reason the Stars are priced as a higher favorite here as the odds makers and sharps are lining up on this one. It will be payback for Dallas. We can reduce the star rating on this play to avoid too big of a risk amount but I absolutely prefer the money line over the puck line and am confident Oettinger will bounce back after a tough game in goal, one of his worst starts of the season. Keep in mind, Oettinger and the Stars did drop the first game of every series last season and yet still almost made it to the Stanley Cup finals. The team that ended their run? These Golden Knights. Now, after dropping Game 1, the revenge payback starts here in what will be relentless effort from a desperate Dallas club on home ice! DALLAS -175

Rotation #955: MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +105 @ 6:40 ET - The Reds won 8 to 1 yesterday. However, since the Phillies lost B2B games to open up the season, they have now gone a PERFECT 7-0 when off a loss! Also, though Lodolo has great numbers early this season he has only made two starts and now take a closer look at those. Lodolo faced a White Sox team that has been awful this season and is the worst hitting club in the league. He then faced the Angels and allowed 7 hits in 6 innings. Though it was still a successful outing, Lodolo did allow a lot of hard contact! Many sharply hit balls for outs. So the value in this game is flying under the radar a bit. The Phillies have seen lot of Lodolo in recent years and he allowed 8 hits in 5 innings when he faced them in Cincinnati last season. Turnbull is off to a fantastic start for the Phillies this season. Unlike Lodolo, he has already made 4 starts. In 3 of the 4, including 1 against Cincinnati, he has not allowed a single earned run. I respect Lodolo but I also respect Turnbull and the fact is this Phillies team has the stronger lineup too. Stott has hit lefties well early this season even though he is a left-handed bat so he will likely be back in the lineup today after he and Marsh sat out yesterday. Stott actually has hit lefties well throughout his career. The Reds had been held to 3 or less runs in 5 of last 7 games before yesterday's loss. Philly, on the other hand, had scored at least 7 runs in 5 straight games and averaged 6 runs scored per game last 7 games prior to the loss yesterday. Even with Harper out, this Phillies team has the better lineup and this is a value spot to grab the better team especially after seeing the way Lodolo's last start truly played out as there was more than meets the eye by just glancing at a boxscore. PHILADELPHIA +105

Rotation #206969: Romania Liga 1: Wednesday OVER 2.5 +103 in Sepsi vs FCSB @ 2:45 ET - FCSB has a couple of injuries - Phelipe and Chiriches - but that is actually adding some value to this total. We get the over 2.5 without laying any juice because of these injuries. FCSB still has plenty of depth plus these injuries essentially balance each other out. Phelipe is a midfielder and, in theory, this could impact the transition game on the attack but Chiriches is a central defender and is a veteran that was just lost for the season. This certainly could impact FCSB in front of their own goal. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals. The last meeting in Sepsi totaled 7 goals! Also, 2 of the other 3 overs (including most recent in Bucuresti) went over the total in the first half! Don't be surprised if this is another one of those here. FCSB is in great shape but still has not locked up the top spot in the league so they will push for the full 3 points in the table here and are favored on the road for a reason. However, Sepsi has scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight matches and has averaged 1.6 goals scored per match during this stretch! FCSB has only been shutout once in last 9 matches and in the other 8 they averaged 1.8 goals scored per match. Given all of the above I simply can not envision a clean sheet for either club. That said, what about the odds of a 1-1 draw? Well, FCSB has only 4 draws in last 19 road matches across all competitions. Sepsi has only 6 draws in last 30 matches! So you are talking about a 20% draw rate roughly. I like the odds of another thriller between these clubs and this one gets to at least a 2-1 final. OVER 2.5 +103 in Sepsi

Rotation #200021: English Premier League Wednesday OVER 2.5 -145 in Wolverhampton vs Bournemouth @ 2:45 ET - Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha both are expected to be available for the Wolves in this one. The hosts keep shipping too many goals but this is good news for them in terms of boosting their attack. Hee-chan was limited to 45 minutes last week but is ramping up and now Cunha is expected back after missing the match with Arsenal. Gary O'Neil was the manager at Bournemouth last season and now leads Wolverhampton. His Wolves already won the reverse fixture by a 2-1 count and now they are aiming to do the double over Bournemouth by taking this one as well. However, the issue for the Wolves is they have conceded at least a goal in 8 straight matches across all competitions and allowed an average of 2 goals during this stretch. The fact is, however, Bournemouth has not been any better in that department. They have allowed at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches and conceded an average of 2 goals in those 6 matches. These clubs are battling it out in the mid-table position and I would not be surprised, given the above numbers, to see a 2-2 type of match here and a sharing of the spoils. 6 of the last 7 matches for Bournemouth have totaled at least 3 goals and I have liked the aggressiveness on the attack that I have seen from them. Those 6 overs averaged 4 goals apiece! Andoni Iraola, O'Neil's replacement, has his Cherries playing competitive football but their penchant for high-scoring thrillers continues. I don't see that coming to an end here and expect at least a 2-1 type battle in this one. Wolverhampton is getting some guys back this week but Bournemouth continues to pressure opponents on the attack. The Wolves had 21 shots (7 on goal) in the 2-1 win back in October and and will again create plenty of chances here but Bournemouth is playing much better now on the attack than they were back then and that is why a 2-2 thriller could be in the cards here. OVER 2.5 -145 in Bournemouth

Rotation #513: NBA Tuesday Dallas Mavericks -2 @ Los Angeles Clippers @ 10 ET - The Mavericks did not just lose Game 1, they scored just 8 points in the 2nd quarter and trailed 56-30 at the half in an unreal result! These are not the only quirky stats in the games that was ultimately decided by a 12 point margin. The Clippers also made 18 of 36 three pointers! What I like here is that the Clips outscored the Mavs by 24 points (Dallas made 10 threes) from beyond the arc yet the Mavs lost the game by "only" a 12-point margin. That said, there is some value here because I am confident the Clippers will not be raining threes again with such success in Game 2. It is just not sustainable. What it sustainable is being hungry and physical and doing everything you can to get to the free throw line. The Mavs did have 33 free throw attempts compared to just 13 for the Clips in Game 1. Also, Dallas had the edge in steals plus blocked shots were a huge 9 to 3 edge. It was an ugly loss for the Mavs but there were some interesting takeaways from that defeat and I am expecting a very focus and hungry road team to get some payback here in Game 2. This is true even if Kawhi Leonard does end up playing for LA in this one. Dating back to the regular season, the Mavs have now lost 3 straight games. They are a PERFECT 5-0 SU the last 5 times they have entered a game on a losing streak of 3 or more games. All 5 of those SU wins have also come by a margin of more than 2 points. Also, when the Clippers are off a SU win by a double digit margin in which they also held their opponent to 98 or less points, LA has gone 0-4 SU and all 4 SU losses were by at least a 3 point margin. Double perfect spot here! Lay it! DALLAS -2

Rotation #929: Tuesday OVER 10 in Chicago Cubs vs Houston Astros @ 7:40 ET - Big total here but the wind will likely be blowing out for this one. First toward center and then perhaps toward right-center as the game goes on. The Cubs have hit well at home and have a solid batting average there. Their bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack for team ERA while the struggling Astros have a bullpen ERA that ranks among the worst in the majors! Considering this match-up also features two struggling starting pitchers, I expect plenty of runs here. Even though Jordan Wicks has been piling up strikeouts he has just to complete 5 innings in any of his 4 starts this season. Wicks has allowed 30 baserunners in those 17 innings as he has given up 21 hits plus walked 9! That spells trouble here against an Astros lineup that will be ready to explode after a shutout loss in their most recent game. As for the Cubs, they have scored an average of 6 runs when at Wrigley Field this season and they are facing JP France in this one. The Astros hurler, just like Wicks, has a high WHIP so far this season as he has given up 26 hits plus walked 8 in his 20.1 innings so far this season. Baserunners and hitter friendly conditions expected throughout this one and that means double digits likely here! Don't let the big number keep you away. This is a great spot for a slugfest. OVER 10 in Chicago Cubs

Rotation #73: NHL Tuesday Tampa Bay Lightning +1.5 -165 @ Florida Panthers @ 7:30 ET - Worth the price here to have the 1.5 goals. I know the Lightning scored very late in the 3-2 loss in Game 1 but the Panthers had just scored into an empty net just minutes earlier for a 3-1 lead. It was a tie game entering the 3rd period and Vasilevskiy did play very well for Tampa Bay. That was a key after he struggled some late in the season. If Vasilevskiy is back in top from, this is going to be a very interesting series! The Panthers Bobrovsky was 17-29 in his career in the NHL post-season prior to his big playoffs performance last season. That was certainly no fluke last season but, the point is that Florida certainly does not have a big edge here in goal by any stretch of the imagination. Bobrovsky has had his share of post-season ups and downs through the years. TB will come out even hungrier in this one now after losing Game 1 in a very competitive match-up. That leads to line value in a spot like this with a game that is likely to be tight again throughout. The Panthers, it goes without saying, truly are a highly talented team but the Lightning are so disciplined and well coached and they did a great job of limiting the Panthers of scoring chances of quality for long stretches in Game 1. In Game 2 I look for the Bolts to come out strong and put Florida on its heels a bit early. That will shift the momentum a bit here and I expect an early lead and the Bolts to continue to grind. I do expect the upset but could see a tight battle decided on a late goal or even in OT so I am taking advantage of a reasonable price on the puck line in this one. TAMPA BAY +1.5 -165

Rotation #200017: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 3 -125 in Arsenal vs Chelsea @ 3 ET - Because of the question mark surrounding Chelsea star Cole Palmer (illness) for this match Tuesday, we are getting excellent line value here with this total held down at 3 goals. Two strong clubs meeting here and, of course, Arsenal is a 1 goal favorite on the goal line with good reason. Logically building off that, I just do not see Chelsea being shutout here. They had so many great chances in the 1-0 loss to Manchester City Saturday. They just failed to cash them. That said, one can logically expect at least a 2-1 type match here though I am surely expecting a lot more and with good reason. Chelsea, in EPL matches, has gone over the the total in 9 of last 10 matches. Not only that, all 9 of those matches have totaled at least 4 goals and actually averaged 5 goals apiece! Entering this match, Chelsea is on a 6-0 run to the over in EPL matches with all 6 of those totaling at least 4 goals! The Blues also have seen 4 of last 5 meetings with Arsenal (across all competitions) total at least 4 goals! Arsenal just delivered a clean sheet versus the Wolves but they had allowed 5 goals in last 3 matches across all competitions prior to that 2-0 win. Also, Arsenal is scoring an average of 2.3 goals per match in EPL action this season but Chelsea averaging 2 goals per match in league action and I am sure will be on the attack in this one after the way the match with City played out! Look for 4 or more here and we'll take advantage of this total available at a 3 as of overnight hours heading into Tuesday. OVER 3 -125 in Arsenal

Rotation #206973: Romania Liga 1: Tuesday OVER 2 -135 in FC Botosani vs Dinamo Bucuresti @ 12:30 ET - Botosani out for revenge from a 2-0 home loss the last time these clubs met in the regular season. Now it is a key play-out battle as both clubs looking to avoid relegation. These were two of the worst clubs in the regular season overall but both showed a lot of fight and determination in the latter stages of the regular season and that has continued into the post-season. That said, value here with this total available at 2 goals in the marketplace. Prior to the 2-0 Dinamo win at Botosani, 4 of the last 5 meetings had totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Long-term numbers would support the low total here for these clubs but look at the recent action! Botosani has had 4 of last 5 matches total at least 2 goals and 3 of the 4 totaled at least 3 goals! Also, they have scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches at home and averaged scoring 2 goals in those 6 matches! As for Dinamo, after some tough times earlier this season, they have averaged 1 goal scored last 16 matches. The problem for the boys from Bucuresti, and it continues here, is they have allowed 31 goals in their 18 matches away from home this season. You can see why I am expecting both clubs to score here and then note that Dinamo has had only a 20% draw rate dating back to the beginning of season with 7 in 35 matches. As for the hosts, they have had just 5 draws last 24 matches prior to a 1-1 draw in most recent match. 2-1 final is my projection in this one. OVER 2 -135 in Botosani

Rotation #66: NHL Monday Dallas Stars Money Line -135 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:30 ET - Revenge from last year's post-season. Goaltending is so important in the post-season and Oettinger has been fantastic for the Stars down the stretch run and also has a league-best 24 wins since the 1st of January. Keep in mind, Vegas counted on Adin Hill in last year's post-season but he has been inconsistent this season so the Golden Knights might turn to Logan Thompson in this series and possibly even right out of the gate. However, Thompson is lacking something that is quite important this time of year and that is playoff experience. This Knights team battled injury issues this season and though some of those guys are now back, including Mark Stone, this team is just not on the level of last year's team. Vegas did win all 3 match-ups with the Stars this season. This included 2 in Dallas but the Golden Knights won just 16 of their other 39 road games this season. Also, the Stars won 26 of their other 39 home games! Vegas finished up the season with losses in 14 of last 27 games while Dallas wrapped the season with wins in 17 of their last 21 games and earned the top seed in the West. Now home ice, revenge, goalie edge, momentum edge, etc. are factors combining to put the Stars in a value spot for backing them to open this series with a big win and 1-0 series lead here. There is a reason the price is rising on this Stars team even with Vegas now returning to health plus being the defending champs. Don't hesitate to lay the price here! DALLAS -135

Rotation #503: NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +170 @ New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - Amazingly, since the Lakers beat the Pelicans AT New Orleans Tuesday in the first post-season game (part of the play-in portion of the schedule), 13 STRAIGHT post-season games have seen the home team win straight-up! Yes, a 13-0 SU playoff run for the hosts! This is unusual and will not continue. Road wins are a part of every post-season and this looks like a great spot for one here. The Sixers were +14 with Joel Embiid on the floor in Game 1. The next game after this is Thursday at Philly. The 76ers know they will have multiple days to rest up after this game and they know that going into an 0-2 hole is going to be tough to overcome. Their bench let them down in Game 1 but not only would I expect them to be better in Game 2, I also expect them to be used even less in this one. This game is going to come down to a determined group of Sixers starters giving it their all after they let Game 1 slip away in the 4th quarter. The Knicks bench outscored the Philly bench by 35 points (42 to 7) and yet New York still trailed in the 4th quarter and only won the game by a single digit margin. The Knicks bench is NOT going to again shoot 8 of 13 from three point land! No way! The point is that there were some crazy stats in Game 1 that have swung the value in favor of the underdog in Game 2. I know we could grab the points here but I am going for the bigger payout with the money line. The 76ers will bring a relentless effort here. I am sure of it! 4 of the 5 Knicks starters combined for a 17 of 52 shooting performance from the field and the Sixers will again be hammered by the New York bench in Game 2. There will be adjustments here and Philly gets on top again and this time does not relinquish the lead. Huge, desperate, underdog effort here and finally another road team wins SU in this post-season! PHILADELPHIA +170

Rotation #953: MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies -117 @ Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - I see no reason to stop riding the Phillies now. Just look at their lineup compared to the Reds lineup. There is no comparison. This Philadelphia team has a very dangerous lineup again this season while Cincinnati has been winning games mostly with pitching as this team is not impressive at the plate. In fact, the Reds .225 batting average ranks down near the bottom of the majors with teams like the Marlins and A's and White Sox and Twins and Cardinals. In fact those 5 teams are a combined 42 games under .500 so far this season! The Reds lack of hitting will catch up with them soon and it is likely right now against a Phillies team that finally got their sticks going. Philadelphia has won 6 straight games and has scored an average of 7.2 runs per game in their 5 most recent victories. The Reds have won 3 straight games but yesterday's game was the 4th time in last 6 games that has seen Cincinnati held to 3 or less runs. The Reds have averaged just 2 runs scored in those 4 games. Conversely, the Phillies have scored at least 4 runs in 8 of last 11 games including at least 5 runs in 5 straight games. The Reds Greene is a strong pitcher who has piled up strikeouts this season but he did allow 6 earned runs in most recent home start. Also, the Phillies Suarez has allowed just 16 hits in 26 innings plus has not allowed any runs in the 15 innings spanning his last two starts! Also, these lineups don't have much experience against these starting pitchers but the Phillies have 5 guys who have enjoyed success versus Greene and those 5 guys are a combined 10 for 21 which is huge! The Reds just have two guys who have had some success against Suarez and those guys are a combined mediocre 3 of 11. The more potent lineup plus a starting pitcher who has thrown 15 straight scoreless frames in his last two starts. Lay it with the road team in this one. PHILADELPHIA -117

Rotation #201353: Italian Serie A: Monday OVER 2 -125 in Roma vs Bologna @ 12:30 ET - This is a contrarian play. As long-time followers know, I like to use contrarian angles. The recent history of meetings between these clubs is very few goals. Also, both clubs enter this match in current form that has been trending under for weeks now. However, if you look at some of the key statistics like overall shots as well as shots on goal, there is an indication something different is brewing right now for each club! I particularly like the aggressiveness I have seen from Bologna recently on the attack and, being the road club in this one, I look for a strong push from the visitors and this will illicit a response from Roma. Note that Roma has scored an average of 2 goals per match in league action as a host but is allowing 1 goal per match even at home. Though Bologna does not score as well on the road as they do at home, they are still averaging 1 goal scored on the road and also allowing 1 goal per match as a traveler in league action. Roma does have a game in hand on Bologna but the fact they are trailing them by 4 points in the table, I do not foresee them settling for a share of the spoils here. That said, the odds of a draw are slim as Roma only has 3 draws in 16 matches on their home pitch this season. I look for each club to make the net ripple and then eventually this match finds itself at 2-1. The value of the over being available at 2 goals strengthens this spot and I will not hesitate to get involved. OVER 2 -125 in Roma

Rotation #583 NBA Sunday Indiana Pacers -115 @ Milwaukee Bucks @ 7 ET - It is doubtful that  Antetokounmpo is going to play here. If he does, he will not be near to 100%. That said, this Pacers team is extremely hungry as they are finally back in the post-season. Indiana has such a prolific and fast-paced offense and I expect them to throw the Bucks, especially being without Antetokounmpo, out of rhythm in this one. Milwaukee has dealt with so many injuries over the latter portion of the season that their record is not impressive since Rivers took over as head coach. As for the Pacers, they have won 12 of 18 games and they are only missing Benedict Mathurin on the injury front. But he has been out since early March and was not on the floor for that 12-6 run over Indiana's last 18 games. Also, they have looked really strong with Siakam on the floor along with Haliburton and Turner. This team looks healthier and stronger and deeper than seen in quite some time! Unlike a Pacers team that finished the season strong, the Bucks have lost 8 of 11 games. Milwaukee did win their last 2 home games but this followed a 4-game home losing streak! The Bucks are trending the wrong way right now and the Antetokounmpo injury situation makes this a must play the way I see it! By the way, the current line is a -1 in most spots as of 10 hours before tipoff so I would suggest laying a slightly higher price and just grab the money line in this one. INDIANA -115

Rotation #54 NHL Sunday New York Rangers Money Line -220 vs Washington Capitals @ 3 ET - Long time followers know that I rarely ever play a favorite in this range but this is a unique situation. First off I like the Rangers a lot here and might normally play the puck line in a spot like this or perhaps take a look at the regulation line. However, here is a key stat that will help you feel more comfortable with laying the price here also. The Rangers were 30-11 on home ice this season and had ZERO losses after regulation time when on home ice. They also are the much better team on special teams. Also, the Capitals lost a couple 20-minute defensemen late this season and that has hurt the D-men depth for them and those guys are now question marks as to their health. Washington barely got the win at Philly and punched their ticket to the post-season at the very end of the season. Prior to that win on the road the Caps had lost 4 of last 5 road games. Yes, Washington won their final 3 regular season games (2 on home ice) but this followed losing 7 of 8 overall. They are not the same team they use to be when they made the post-season two years ago and had guys like Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Eller, Sheary, Orlov and Mantha. Yes, they still have Ovechkin and Oshie and Carlson and Wilson plus they now have Strome. However, this team has definitely regressed and barely snuck into the post-season through the backdoor. Give them credit for that but their goal differential compared to the Rangers is a 90-goal variance in favor of New York and the hosts are the healthier team here. The health of defensemen Jensen and Sandin is a big concern for the Caps here. Rare bigger money line price for me but worth an investment as one could argue it should be closer to -300! This Rangers team won 75% of home games this season! NEW YORK RANGERS -220

Rotation #918: MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -145 vs Chicago White Sox @ 1:35 ET - Not going to change what is working just fine. The White Sox have the worst record in the league and are now 3-17 on the season and 1-8 on the road. The Phillies have won 5 straight games and are swinging hot bats at home. The White Sox have gotten some late runs in recent games but overall continue to slump at the plate. As for Philadelphia, they have now scored an average of 7 runs in their last 4 victories. Aaron Nola gets the ball here and he loves pitching at home. Also, he had a bad first start this season but has been strong ever since and is coming off his best start yet. Curve ball was lethal at home and he has allowed only 9 hits in his last 19 innings plus just 3 solo homers are the only 3 runs in his last 3 starts! Nick Nastrini gets the ball for the White Sox and the 24 year old was strong in his first career MLB start early this week but now he is making his first ever road start! Nastrini was struggling at the AAA level before being called up and he also walked too many batters in spring training so he appears to be prone to lapses in command of his pitches. Facing a hot Phillies team with a number of sluggers is a tough ask for the very first road start of your career. Look for the Phillies to again roll big at home in this one. We have a bit of a price to lay on the run line here but it should prove well worth it! PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -145

Rotation #206937: Romania Liga 1: Sunday OVER 2.5 +105 in Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova @ Noon ET - Sepsi is off a 1-0 win at Rapid. This low-scoring win followed Sepsi both scoring and conceding in 4 straight matches! Also, Sepsi has scored an average of 1.7 goals per match over their last 7 matches. They have been playing well and love playing at home but Universitatea Craiova is sure to give them trouble in this one. The visitors have been a goal-scoring machine and this includes matches away from home as well! In fact, before a rare 2-0 shutout loss at FCSB, note that Universitatea Craiova scored 2.3 goals per match in their last 8 ROAD matches! Overall, in all matches, 14 of last 16 Universitatea Craiova matches have totaled at least 3 goals! This one will too and you will see a strong push for the full 3 points in the table in this play-off battle and with both clubs very likely to score, that is why I am projecting at least a 2-1 final here. Note that Sepsi had only 7 draws in 30 matches in the regular season and, out of all 16 clubs in the league, note that Universitatea Craiova is the only club without a draw and I look for that streak to remain intact here with at least 3 goals in this one! OVER 2.5 +105 in Sepsi

Rotation #200009: English Premier League Sunday OVER 3 -123 in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth @ 10 AM ET - Aston Villa still pushing hard for a top four finish in the table. They are off a 2-1 loss to Lille but that was the 2nd leg and the 1 goal they got was a key one from Matty Cash. That knotted the aggregate at 3-3 and Aston Villa then prevailed on penalty kicks so they are coming into this match with momentum. I love the over here because Bournemouth will surely push the pace here and try to take advantage of possible weary Villa legs. However, Villa is so tough at home and will take advantage on the counterattack. Villa has scored 2.5 goals per match when at home this season in EPL action but also has allowed 1.4 goals per match at home. Bournemouth has allowed 2 goals per match when on the road this season but also is scoring 1.6 goals per match when away from home. The goals absolutely should fly here. Bournemouth, which might surprise many to hear, has scored exactly 2 goals in 5 of the last 6 meetings with Aston Villa. As for the hosts in this match-up, they have scored 5 goals in their last 2 matches versus Bournemouth. Also, Aston Villa has averaged scoring 2.8 goals per match in their last 4 home matches across all competitions. We have to lay a little juice to have the over 3 in this one but it is available in the marketplace and well worth it though I certainly am expecting 4 or more goals here. 12 of 15 Bournemouth road matches have totaled 3 or more goals this season. This one will too! OVER 3 -123 in Aston Villa

Rotation #43: NHL Saturday OVER 5.5 -120 in Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 8 ET - Some books have had - and some (as of 7 AM ET gameday) still have - this total at 6 goals! I agree with this and feel we have solid line value with the over with this total at 5.5 goals. Yes, it is playoff hockey and yes this is not only a divisional rivalry but also an Original Six match-up! However, the Maple Leafs have recently resumed their concerning tendency of allowing too many goals and they are going to have to lean heavily on their skill up front. That said, I like the value with the low total here. Toronto has had 5 straight games total at least 7 goals! Also, 14 of last 18 have totaled at least 6 goals! Again, it is playoff hockey now but the Leafs have conceded 5 goals per game in their last 4 games and you can not just "flip a switch" on that. Also, Boston has scored 4 goals in each of the last two meetings with Toronto and the one before was also a 4-3 Bruins win in OT. With having won all 4 games in the regular season series, the Bruins have plenty of confidence here but the Leafs will be aggressive and try to put Boston on their heels early in this one. Don't be surprised if each club gets to 3 goals in this one! OVER 5.5 -120 in Boston

Rotation #571: Saturday NBA Philadelphia 76ers +140 @ New York Knicks @ 6 ET - When Julius Randle (out for the season - shoulder surgery) first went down in late January, the Knicks had a few easy opponents lined up next. But then, after facing Memphis in early February, New York then went 17-14 the rest of the season without Randle. New York is still a solid team but they don't have the dual star power they had when they had Jalen Brunson in tandem with Randle. Yes, the Knicks still have solid players and are well-coached and play solid defense. However, the Sixers will have Joel Embiid for this game. They have their dual star power with Embiid and Tyrese Maxey! After that, similar to the Knicks, Philly has plenty of solid players and strong role players as well. With Embiid the 76ers have won 31 of 38 games! Yes, a 31-7 run in games he has played. Remember the stat I just told you about the Knicks last 31 games without Randle (17-14). We are getting phenomenal line value here considering the above. Yes, the Knicks are at home and have a solid team but being without Randle makes a huge difference. Also, Embiid only played in one game against New York this season. Yes the Sixers got blasted in that game (36 point differential tied to variance in 3-pointers) but the point is, Philly is now the healthier team. Losing 3 of the 4 regular season meetings is leading to line value here. Maxey and Embiid were both out when the Sixers beat the Knicks here in New York last month. Maxey did score 26 ppg in the other 3 games against the Knicks. This is where coach Nurse earns his contract with the Sixers. Remember he was also in his first year with the Raptors when he led them to a title. Philly will be playing at a different level now that playoff time is here and playoff time means being without a star like Randle can quickly become a killer. Embiid is not 100% but he has shown he can pace himself and then raise to his highest level come crunch time when needed. That said, no points needed here and we take advantage of the plus money on the money line in this one. PHILADELPHIA +140

Rotation #972: MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -130 vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:05 ET - Of course we are not going to be on the Phillies every day of the season but we are riding with them again today because they are matched up with the team with the worst record in MLB this season! Of course this is why the Phillies are the biggest money line favorite on the board today but there is still value to be had as we can grab the run line at -1.5 runs and get a very fair price. Chicago is now 3-16 on the season. This White Sox team has 4 games where they scored decently (or at least respectable) but in the other 15 games they have averaged only 1 run scored per game! That is incredible! Yes, 15 of 19 games this season have aggregated to just 15 runs - 1 per game! If they have that type of "normal" result for them there, we - in theory - just need 3 runs from the Phillies to win this bet. The fact is Philadelphia's lineup is starting to heat up and they have averaged 6.3 runs in their last 3 games at home! Bohm was the star yesterday. Schwarber and Turner the day before. Harper and Realmuto the day before. All those guys are solid hitters and though Castellanos has slumped so far this season, he and Stott and Marsh in the bottom half of the lineup show just how stacked this team is with hitters compared to a team like the White Sox. Also, Wheeler is 0-3 this season but has pitched very well. Tough luck losses so far. Soroka is 0-2 this season and has struggled with command and has a 6.98 ERA. This game is a complete mismatch again. Lay it! PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -130

Rotation #206933: Romania Liga 1: Saturday OVER 2.5 -105 in FCSB vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 1:30 ET - Not only have these clubs gone over the total in 3 straight meetings overall. The over is also a perfect 4-0 the L4 times that FCSB has hosted. Yes, both clubs play in Bucuresti but the value of a club being in their home stadium where they are most comfortable does matter. FCSB has scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight home matches and has averaged 2.1 goals scored during this stretch. The last 4 times they have hosted Rapid, those matches have all totaled at least 3 goals and the matches have averaged 4.3 goals apiece! FCSB has been perfect in the play-off portion of the schedule thus far with a 4-0 record. However, Rapid beat them 4-0 in the final match of the regular season so you know FCSB is out for revenge here. The hosts have a comfortable lead at the top of the table so they can go all out here on the attack in an effort to get their revenge. That said I expect an attack-filled affair to be the story in this one. Rapid will be looking to respond off a 1-0 home loss and 6 of 7 Rapid matches prior to that one went over the total and those 6 averaged 4 goals apiece. The over improves to 5-0 L5 times FCSB has hosted Rapid! OVER 2.5 -105 in FCSB

Rotation #200401: English FA Cup: Saturday OVER 3 -110 in Manchester City vs Chelsea @ 12:15 ET - Manchester City will bounce back after the frustrating loss to Real Madrid in Champions League action. After being eliminated from competing for that title, City views this one as even more important now and will be looking to keep their hopes alive of winning some hardware. Chelsea, however, will have something to say about that and has been scoring plenty of goals. I look for a high-scoring affair here as City will be aggressively attacking after the 1-1 result with Real Madrid. Couple that with Chelsea continuing to pile up goals - Palmer now has scored as many as Haaland in EPL action - and I look for a 3-2 type match here! The last meeting between these clubs was 1-1 but this followed a 4-4 thriller which marked the 2nd time in 3 meetings that City had reached the 4-goal mark. Entering this one Chelsea has seen 8 straight matches total at least 4 goals and those 8 have actually averaged 5 goals apiece! We get some line value here because there is a chance that City could rotate some players after that long battle with Real Madrid but, even if they do, they have plenty of firepower and will bounce back strong at home even if Chelsea matches them goal for goal. I expect 2 goals for each club in this one given all of the above! OVER 3 -110 in Manchester City

Rotation #557: NBA Friday Sacramento Kings Money Line (-) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 9:30 ET - This money line is in the -125 range with the Kings favored on the road at New Orleans. The Pelicans are without Zion Williamson. The Pelicans will do their best to step up in his absence but Williamson just scored 40 points before leaving with an injury in the final minutes of the 4 point loss to the Lakers. No one else on New Orleans topped 12 points! The Pelicans were at home for that game, just like this one, and note Williamson had 9 FT attempts in the game while the rest of the team had just 6 FT attempts. Who will be getting to the line in this game for NO? Who is going to be drawing contact inside and taking hard fouls to get to the line? The fact is the Pelicans just lost an absolutely key player. His presence made even more key because Brandon Ingram is not right. It is clear his knee injury is still limiting him. He had only 12 points in the loss to the Lakers and lasted only 23 minutes and his productivity faded as the game went on. Behind Williamson and Ingram (one absent and one hurting) the 3rd leading scorer for New Orleans is CJ McCollum. He will get a lot of attention here from the Kings defensively (just like he did against the Lakers) and he was 1 of 9 from 3-point land versus the Lakers! That was even with so much attention on Williamson which, of course, will not be the case in this game. The Pelicans won all 5 games against the Kings this season PLUS this game is at home BUT the Kings are now favored here ... think about that for a moment ... exactly! Don't be fooled by this! Lay it! SACRAMENTO (-)

Rotation #920: MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -165 / -170 vs Chicago White Sox @ 6:40 ET - Line value here because Garrett Crochet is starting for the White Sox. Lets not forget this is his first year as a starter and he is only 24 and has made only MLB road start. He did pitch okay in that one but lasted only 5 innings. He followed that up with his most recent start coming at home and piling up strikeouts but allowing 5 runs in 4 and 2/3 innings of work. Crochet has good stuff but he is still adjusting to life as a big league starter and he pitches for one of the worst teams in baseball which is a key in terms of the value here also. White Sox are just 3-15 this season. They have won only one of his 4 starts and he has not lasted as long on the mound in his last two starts. The Phillies are at home where they have won 3 straight and 7 of 11 games. Chicago is off a win but this after starting the season 2-14. The Phillies are the hotter and stronger team and are at home. White Sox bullpen ERA is better than Philadelphia's but the WHIP is the same and the Phillies have the much better SO to BB ratio as well. Spencer Turnbull, like Crochet, is off a tougher start. But, unlike Crochet, Turnbull is a long-time starter and is 31 years old. He bounces back here at home while the young White Sox hurler could struggle on the road and the lack of run support will keep the pressure on him. This Chicago team has 3 games where they scored decently but in the other 15 games they have averaged only 1.3 runs scored per game! Philly has not been pounding the ball but they certainly have been better at the plate than the ChiSox. The Phillies have averaged scoring 4 runs per game at home this season including scoring a dozen runs in their last two games at Citizens Bank Park. More of the same here! PHILADELPHIA (-)

Rotation #201321: Italian Serie A: Friday OVER 2 -125 in Genoa vs Lazio @ 12:30 ET - These clubs last met in Coppa Italia action and it was a 1-0 final as was their most recent meeting in Serie A action back in August. However, the long-term history between these clubs is that the goals fly and this is another one, based on situation, that should be a goal-laden affair. Prior to the August meeting, the last 13 meetings totaled 57 goals! 1 totaled just 2 goals but the other 12 all totaled 3 or more goals and those dozen matches averaged 4.6 goals apiece! That said, we have some excellent line value with this total available at 2 goals. Genoa has trended toward higher scoring matches when on their home pitch this season and Lazio has trended toward higher scoring matches when on the road this season. Genoa home matches averaging 2.7 goals apiece. Lazio road matches averaging 2.8 goals apiece. You can see, given all of the above, why I am expecting each club to make the net ripple in this one. That means at least a 1-1 final but what about the likelihood of a draw here? Lazio has the FEWEST draws (4) of any club in Serie A this season and that includes only ONE draw in 16 matches on the road this season. Also, only 2 of the last 15 meetings between these clubs have finished in a draw. In other words, look for at least a 2-1 final here. Lazio enters this match off a huge 4-1 win to get back on track and Genoa has scored in 5 straight matches at home and averaged scoring 1.6 goals per match during this 5-match stretch. OVER 2 -125 in Genoa

Rotation #206941: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Friday OVER 2 -120 in Hermannstadt vs Botosani @ 10:30 AM ET - Hermannstadt has scored 7 goals in their 4 matches in the play-out and Botosani has scored 6 goals in their 4 matches. Only 1 club (Voluntari) out of all 16 clubs in the play-off and play-out for Romania Liga 1 has scored more than these two clubs. That said, we have some nice value on the over here with this total available at 2 goals. Note that both clubs have momentum coming off big wins last week and Hermannstadt has scored 9 goals in its last 4 matches on its home pitch. They are battling other clubs at the top of the play-out table so getting the full 3 points in the table is the goal here and not settling for a draw. Botosani also has impressed as they look to escape the relegation zone of the play-out table. Their confidence surging with each win and they too will be pushing hard for the crucial 3 points. Considering this factor and the strong likelihood each club makes the net ripple at least once in this one, I am anticipating this gets to 3 goals, at least, via a 2-1 final. Botosani has played 11 matches since the start of February and 8 of the 11 (73%) have totaled at least 3 goals. Botosani visited here in late January and lost 2-0 but had scored at least 1 goal in each of 5 prior matches at Hermannstadt. They carry some momentum from the recent home successes but also have allowed 19 goals in last 12 games and the hosts have scored 29 matches in their last 16 matches at home! OVER 2 -120 in Hermanndstadt

Rotation #953: MLB Thursday OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:45 ET - Expected pitching match-up is Logan Webb versus Ryne Nelson. Note that Nelson is struggling early this season and the Giants have hitters with experience against him. In fact, 6 of the 7 that do have gone 11 of 25 against him for a .440 batting average. As for Webb, he is off a solid start but got hit hard (and was fortunate) in his most recent home start and that was preceded by a rough road outing too. Also, the Diamondbacks have a lot of batters with plenty of experience against him so he might not be fooling many guys with his repertoire of pitches in this one. That said, the value is with the over here also because of the bullpens. Currently the Giants bullpen ERA ranks near the bottom of the majors and the Diamondbacks pen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack. Arizona is off a 5-3 loss but had won 5 of 7 games leading into that one. Also, the Dbacks have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game on the season and that includes 5 runs per game last 9 games. The Giants have not hit well early this season overall but have scored an average of nearly 5 runs per game last 7 games and are trending the right direction with wins in 4 of their last 7 games. Interestingly, SF has allowed an average of 7 runs per game this season when coming off a win in their prior game! Arizona has scored an average of 6.5 runs this season when off a loss. I expect similar results here and I expect Nelson's struggles against a number of the SF hitters to continue here. We get a low total because of long-term SF numbers in home games but this one sets up perfectly to get into double digits in runs. OVER 8 -105 in San Francisco

Rotation #224429: UEFA Europa League: OVER 3.5 +100 in Atalanta vs Liverpool @ 3 ET - With Atalanta having a 3-0 lead because of the 1st leg, Liverpool has no choice but to go for it here and throw caution to the wind. Remember, the Reds have done this before - completely turning it around after an ugly 1st leg - and, though it won't be easy don't be surprised if the Reds do it again. If nothing else, it should set up for an exciting affair because Liverpool will be on the attack but this exposes them at the back also. The last time they visited Atalanta they won 5-0. Also, I really like the way this one sets up. The Reds are off B2B losses that were both at home but now this is the first of 4 away matches for Liverpool. They are not home again until May but sometimes this type of scheduling quirk completely refocuses a club and I look for them to come out strong and firing on all cylinders. Jota has been back (sparingly, last 2 matches) but is ramping up and could (should!) play an even bigger role here. Also, I like the fact that both home defeats (shockingly!) were shutout losses for the Reds. I expect them to be utterly relentless here in terms of possession and attacking and they will score big here but should also allow at least 1 goal as clean sheets have just not been there for the Reds plus they are going to be so aggressive on the attack. So perhaps a 4-1 result and this 2-leg tie eventually decided on penalties. Or could it be, for Liverpool, a disappointing 3-1 win (they must win here by at least 3) or 2-2 draw or even 3-2. Looking at this match from all angles I feel the over 3.5 at even money offers the best wagering opportunity here! OVER 3.5 +100 in Atalanta

Rotation #215221: UEFA Europa Conference League: OVER 2.5 -130 in Lille vs Aston Villa @ 12:45 ET - Aston Villa won the 1st Leg by a 2-1 final but Lille was able to create plenty of scoring chances and, in the opinion of many, deserved at least a draw in that battle. Now, on their home pitch and trailing by a goal on the aggregate, Lille is sure to be even more aggressive than they were in the 1st Leg. The result will be plenty of scoring chances but also will open things up for a dangerous Aston Villa club on the counter-attack. Aston Villa has scored an average of 2 goals per match in their last 7 matches across all competitions. Lille has both scored and conceded in 6 straight matches! But a 1-1 draw is unacceptable to them here as they already trail by a goal because of the 1st leg result. That is why you would see a strong push from Lille even with the counterattack risk and I can not foresee this match ending with anything less than a 2-1 final. Lille has fresh legs too since they have not played since last week's match with Aston Villa. Lille has scored multiple goals in 7 of last 8 on their home pitch and the only match they did not was certainly impacted by the fact it was a 2nd Leg match in which they already led 3-0. The point is this French Ligue 1 club is particularly strong on the attack on their home pitch and, down 2-1 in this battle, they will respond well here but Aston Villa makes them pay on the counterattack. Asking for 3 goals here is not asking too much! OVER 2.5 -130 in Lille

Rotation #552 NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - The 76ers finished the season with 8 straight wins. They rested Embiid in the season finale and he is listed as questionable for this game as a result. However, there is no way he is missing this game. Philly is on a roll and ready to advance and the Heat are still a strong team but they are not on the same level they use to be. Also, some news on the injury front from Miami. Though Duncan Robinson is probable for this game, Terry Rozier has been ruled out and this does impact the depth of Miami for this game. The 76ers 8 straight wins have come by an average margin of 12.6 ppg! The Heat, prior to a double OT win in their final road game of the season, were on a 5-5 run in road games. The margin of defeat in 4 of the 5 losses was 6 or more points. We have solid value here with this line currently as low as a 4.5 as of overnight hours heading into Wednesday! The Heat won the first two games with Philly in the regular season but Embiid missed both of those. The Sixers have won the last two meetings to wrap the regular season series and that was even without Embiid in one of those as well. He is back, the Sixers are confident, they are rested, they are at home, and this is a manageable line. Lay the short number with the hosts in this one! PHILADELPHIA (-)

Rotation #912: MLB Wednesday Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:05 ET - The Rockies, with the extra innings loss in Philly Monday followed by the 5-0 shutout loss yesterday, have dropped to 4-14 on the season and 2-10 in road games. Colorado is now 24-69 in road games since the start of last season. They are one of the worst teams in baseball year after year when away from Coors Field. Though Monday's game was decided by a single run, the Rockies first 8 road losses this season featured 7 by a multi-run margin. The value here is on the run line as we get a pick'em price by taking the Phillies on the run line to win this game by 2 or more runs. After yesterday's 5-0 loss, the 8 road losses the Rockies have by a multi-run margin have come by an average margin of defeat of 6.3 runs! No strangers to blowout defeats away from home, the Rockies are in trouble again here. The Phillies bats have not been as strong as usual early this season but Colorado's Ryan Feltner has struggled in both of his road outings this season. The right-hander has been hammered by lefties early this season and Bryce Harper is heating up plus the Phillies have dangerous left-handed sticks in addition to Harper. Schwarber, Stott and Marsh all could be in line for doing damage against Feltner here. Since entering the league with the Rockies, Feltner is 7-15 with a 5.80 ERA! Now he faces a Phillies lineup that has underperformed so far this season but still is stacked compared to most teams and is starting to show signs of getting the sticks going! The Rockies have been held to 3 or less runs in 9 of 12 road games this season! In those 9 games they have averaged only 1.2 runs scored per game. They face a tough lefty again today after struggling against Suarez yesterday. Now Christopher Sanchez gets the start and he has been strong at home so far this season and is not allowing many hits. Just 9 hits allowed in 11 innings at home while striking out 14 in those 2 starts! He can shut down the Rockies here and Colorado's road struggles continue as Feltner again gets hit hard away from home. This is a great spot for the Phillies lineup to get rolling and the Rockies just can't keep up here. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -105

Rotation #224226: Champions League Wednesday Manchester City Money Line -153 vs Real Madrid @ 3 ET - Real Madrid, of course, is a top club and they have been enjoying plenty of success. However, this Manchester City club is on an incredible run on their home pitch plus they are the healthier club heading into this match-up. It looks like City should have all hands on deck for this one while Real Madrid has been without guys like Alaba and Courtois. Militao is back now for Real Madrid but is still not fully fit. Also, Tchouameni is out due to accumulating too many yellow cards. Yes, Real Madrid are on a 15-match unbeaten run but City is unbeaten in 27 consecutive matches! Not only that, on their home pitch, Manchester City is unbeaten in 41 straight matches! Of course a draw here means a loss for us but I do not expect City to allow this match to get way from them and they put it away comfortably during regulation time. The last time Manchester City hosted Real Madrid they prevailed 4-0. This one will not be so easy but City will pull away as this match goes on. City was a bit sloppy at the back in the draw at Real Madrid but they will shore that up here at home plus some of their key players that had mediocre games in the away match will come up big here at home. It is much different for Real Madrid trying to be so strong on the counter-attack when you are away compared to at home. Couple that with the attacking prowess of City and I look for Real Madrid to be pushed back on their heels from the get-go in this one. The hosts are worth the price here. MANCHESTER CITY -153

Rotation #544 NBA Tuesday Sacramento Kings +135 vs Golden State Warriors @ 10 PM ET - In typical contrarian fashion, I am fading the line move here. This line opened up at nearly a pick'em and, as expected, everyone has jumped all over the Warriors in this one in terms of market analytics. Golden State has a long-term reputation and the star power that leads to them often being over-valued. That is the case here in my opinion. Other than Steph Curry, the other Warriors just are not what they used to be. Yes, the Kings are without Monk and Huerter but they have been without one for two weeks and the other for a month. So they have had time to adjust. They are still loaded with talent and Fox, Sabonis, Murray and Barnes will lead the way here. I also like the fact that Ellis has responded well to his increased playing time and he averaged 15 ppg in the last 4 games. Also, he is a solid defender and of course Fox is known for his perimeter defense as well in addition to being a big-time scorer. The Kings also are not the only one with injuries as the Warriors Payton is out for this one and his absence weakens the Golden State bench for this one. The Warriors finished the season hot but their last two home wins were against a Jazz team that finished 31-51 on the season. Also, Golden State's last 5 road wins included only one win against a playoff-level team (Lakers) and the other 4 were against 22-60 San Antonio, 41-41 Houston, 21-61 Charlotte and 21-61 Portland. So for all the hype about the Warriors strong season finish, they had 4 last season wins over teams that finished 40 games under .500 and two wins over a Utah team that finished 20 games under .500 on the season. Also, the Warriors were better on the road this season but they entered this season having finished a combined 41 games under .500 the last 4 seasons combined when on the road. Last year in the post-season Golden State went just 2-5 SU on the road but those two wins were against the Kings in a 7-game thriller that knocked Sacramento out of the post-season. This is payback! No points needed! SACRAMENTO +135

Rotation #954: MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -110 vs Colorado Rockies @ 6:40 ET - The Rockies, with the extra innings loss in Philly yesterday, have dropped to 4-13 on the season and 2-9 in road games. Colorado is now 24-68 in road games since the start of last season. They are one of the worst teams in baseball year after year when away from Coors Field. Though yesterday's game was decided by a single run, the Rockies first 8 road losses this season featured 7 by a multi-run margin. The value here is on the run line as we get a pick'em price by taking the Phillies on the run line to win this game by 2 or more runs. Those 7 losses by a multi-run margin came by an average margin of defeat of 6.4 runs! No strangers to blowout defeats away from home, the Rockies are in trouble again here. The Phillies bats have not been as strong as usual early this season but Colorado's Austin Gomber has struggled in 2 of his 3 outings this season. The southpaw had his worst start of the season thus far on the road at Arizona. Since coming to the Rockies Gomber actually has had two season with a ROAD ERA of 5.98 or more! So the ups and downs of Gomber have not just been because of a tough home venue at Coors Field. Now he faces a Phillies lineup that has underperformed so far this season but still is stacked compared to most teams. The Rockies have been held to 3 or less runs in 8 of 11 road games this season! In those 8 games they have averaged only 1.4 runs scored per game. They face a tough lefty as Ranger Suarez has been great so far this season and is not allowing many hits. Just 9 hits allowed in 17 innings and Suarez faced a hot Pirates team and a stellar Braves lineup for 2 of his 3 starts. He can shut down the Rockies here and Colorado's road struggles continue. Gomber gave up quite a bit of hard contact in his most recent start and, remember, that is his only quality outing so far this season. This is a great spot for the Phillies lineup to get rolling and the Rockies just can't keep up here. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110

Rotation #224217: UEFA Champions League Tuesday OVER 3 -135 in Barcelona vs Paris Saint-Germain @ 3 PM ET - In the first leg, Barcelona held Mbappe in check and yet PSG still scored two goals. I expect some adjustments from the PSG side to free up Mbappe a little more in the second leg. Down 3-2 on the aggregate, Paris Saint-Germain must be aggressive on the attack here but Barcelona also certainly has the firepower on the counter-attack to make them pay for an aggressive style. We have to lay a little extra juice to have this total at over 3 goals but I can't see this match ending with anything less than that! Barcelona has scored an average of 2.4 goals in their last 24 matches on their home pitch. The Barcelona manager said that this one is about two clubs that both like to play on the front foot. The PSG manager is saying they must attack and be aggressive here in the rematch and he felt they deserved at least a draw in the first match. Actually, a 2-2 draw is the type of battle I am expecting here in the second leg. With PSG down a goal and on the road, they will be aggressive from the outset in this one. PSG has scored 7 goals in its last 3 meetings with Barcelona. In terms of current form, PSG has scored in 8 consecutive matches across all competitions and has averaged scoring 2.4 goals per match during this stretch. Another 3-2 battle or 2-2 at least should be expected here. Mbappe will be stronger in the rematch and the visitors will be on the attack which forces the tempo of this match and the hosts match them goal for goal. OVER 3 -135 in Barcelona

MLB Monday OVER 10 -120 in Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves @ 8:10 ET - This is a big total but it is justified. The Braves are the top hitting team in the majors thus far. The Astros are the top hitting team in the American League so far. Also, the Astros bullpen has struggled so far this season and the Braves bullpen has had ups and downs and rank only in the middle of the pack on the young season. As for these starters, I am not convinced of Vines "stuff" in terms of being a major league hurler. He is still young and raw and so give him a chance to develop but will his repertoire of pitches be enough at this level? I am still not convinced. I think the Astros will give him trouble here in his first MLB start of this season. Houston has a pitching concern of their own here as Arrighetti gets the start in this one. He could be back in AAA after this start as Verlander is close to coming back. There is a lot of pressure on the young hurler and he got rocked in his first MLB start versus the Royals and allowed 7 earned runs in just 3 innings. He had not looked overly sharp in the minors either. Arrighetti has a strong arm but he is just not quite ready yet and it is showing in his results. Given all of the above, the over is the play in this one as it should be a slugfest. OVER 10 -120 in Houston

NHL Monday OVER 6 -105 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Buffalo Sabres @ 7 ET - This game is somewhat similar to yesterday's over I had which totaled 11 goals and was between two non-playoff teams. In this case, the Bolts are going to the post-season but this game can neither hurt them nor help them in terms of playoff positioning! As for the Sabres, they also can throw caution to the wind because they are not going to the playoffs so this game is just playing out the string on the season. If you look at all the other games on the schedule for Monday, there is a highly motivated team involved which ups the level of defensive intensity. I like looking for overs in games where teams may not be fully focused on defense and this is one of those! These teams will be skating and looking for chances and not too concerned about getting back on defense. We get additional value here because each of the 3 prior meetings this season were unders. You know what is coming here given the circumstances. Both teams were recently playing hard because of playoff reasons and the Sabres had been trending under as a result. However, no playoff pressure is involved here and the Lightning have had 5 of last 7 games total at least 6 goals and I look for a very free-flowing game here with plenty of goals given the situation. OVER 6 -105 in Tampa Bay

Rotation #200109: English Premier League: Monday OVER 3 -130 in Chelsea vs Everton @ 3 ET - Chelsea's last 7 matches across all competitions have ALL gone over the total! Not only that, those matches have averaged 5 goals apiece! Solid line value here with this total being held down to a 3 in some books. Note that this is because Everton is known for lower-scoring battles but I do believe that Chelsea is going to dictate the flow of this match. Also note that Chelsea has been giving up plenty of goals no matter who they have faced. Chelsea has allowed 2 or more goals in 7 straight matches across all competitions. Everton has scored 2 goals in each of last 2 meetings with Chelsea. Also, Everton has scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches overall. Chelsea is a sizable favorite here with good reason and you can see why I am anticipating at least a 2-1 final here given all of the above but, truly, a 3-2 type match is even more likely! Look for plenty of scoring in this one. OVER 3 -120 in Chelsea

Rotation #206909: Romania Liga 1 Play-off: Monday OVER 2.5 -110 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Sepsi @ 1:30 ET - This total is 2.5 with good reason. The last 3 meetings between these clubs, amazingly, have all been 0-0 draws! However, you are going to see nothing like that today. Rapid has had 4 straight matches go over the total. This one will make it 5 in a row as they continue to struggle to stop opponents but also continue getting on the scoreboard. They will fight hard on their home pitch to finally get into the win column here in the play-off round but they have allowed 8 goals last 3 matches. Rapid has scored an average of 2.5 goals in last 14 home matches! Sepsi has gone over the total in 3 straight road matches! That means we are testing double perfect over angles here. OVER 2.5 -110 in Rapid Bucuresti

NHL Sunday OVER 6 -115 in Calgary Flames vs Arizona Coyotes @ 8 ET - The Flames and Coyotes playing out the string on the season and this is the type of match-up you can see turn into a high-scoring barn-burner. There is no playoff pressure. You just go out and play hockey without hesitation or large concern about protecting your own cage. Teams looking for breakaways and high-skill plays where they can attack. Calgary enters this one off a win in which they scored 6 goals. Also, they are 2-0 against the Coyotes this season and scored 6 goals in one of those wins as well! The Flames have allowed 4 goals per game on average last 19 games. The Coyotes have allowed 3.5 goals per game last dozen games. Also, Arizona has scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 9 games which has helped lead the way to a 6-3 run L9 games. This one looks like a back and forth barn-burner in which each team gets to the 3-goal mark. That said, great value with this total available at a 6. OVER 6 -115 in Calgary

Rotation #209841: Major League Soccer: OVER 2.75 -125 in Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union @ 2:30 ET - Atlanta is off a 1-1 draw on the road but they are a different club when they have been at home this season. Atlanta is 3-0 as a host and has scored an average of 3 goals per match in these 3 matches on their home pitch! Atlanta has scored 2 goals in each of last two meetings with Philly but also lost the most recent meeting by a count of 3-2. The goal should fly again in this one as Philadelphia is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season and you can see why I am anticipating a 2-2 type match here. 3-2 (again) between these clubs seems even more likely but getting this one to at least 2-1, if not 2-2 or more, certainly seems likely given the above. OVER 2.75 -125 in Atlanta United

Rotation #206914: Romania Liga 1: Sunday CFR Cluj Pick -130 vs FCSB @ 2 ET - This match is more important to CFR Cluj on their home pitch. They are part of a jumbled group in spots 2 through 5 in the table. Conversely, FCSB is already at the very top and 10 points clear of CFR Cluj. That is also part of the reason FCSB is resting some guys here. They are on the road and facing a tough opponent and I do not expect CFR Cluj to be denied here. FCSB is expected to be without Băluță and Popescu and Panțîru and Phelipe. That is four players that are typically in the rotation and FCSB is now facing their top challenger in the league on the road and without those players! CFR Cluj did lose most recent home match but this followed winning 4 of last 5 at home and those 4 victories were dominating - a combined 13 to 1 score. We could take CFR Cluj on the money line here but the goal line at Pick -130 is offering fantastic line value as a draw would still get us a push with our play. I like Cluj to take care of business here at home. CFR Cluj is off a 4-1 road win and their prior road match was a draw. But the last time they were at home they lost and also their most recent time hosting FCSB was a draw. They want this match badly and they get it! They are the healthier club and at home and the hungrier club! CFR Cluj Pick -130  

MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies -175 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 1:35 ET - This one is in the -175 range but I am still willing to lay it. Keller for the Pirates has been rocked in each of his two road starts and those were against lighter-hitting teams. Those were against the Nationals and Marlins. Now he faces a much stronger lineup and the Phillies are likely to get to him early and often. At the same time, the Phillies Zack Wheeler is a tough luck 0-2 so far as he has pitched great and continued to pile up strikeouts. Mitch Keller is a respectable hurler but he is still just 26-39 with a 4.73 ERA in his MLB career. Last year he had a 5.35 ERA on the road and he has already been crushed in both road starts this season! Wheeler, on the other hand, is 22-11 in his home starts for the Phillies and this is a guy with a sub-3.00 ERA in a Phillies uniform. He loves pitching at home in Philly and will handcuff the Pirates here. Pittsburgh has gone just 5-5 since their 5-0 start. Also, not including extra innings runs, the Pirates have been held to 3 or less runs in 7 of their last 10 games. The Phillies are the much stronger lineup and, though not hitting great yet this season, they do enough here at home especially as they take advantage of facing a starting pitcher known for road struggles. Lay the price with confidence here. PHILADELPHIA -175

NBA Sunday Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Philadelphia 76ers @ 1 ET - The Nets have a lengthy injury list for this one but all the guys listed also missed Friday's game against  the Knicks and Brooklyn lost that game by just 4 points! Also, the Sixers are motivated to win this game but they don't have to win in blowout fashion. I could see Philly trying to build a huge lead and then letting it slip away later and settling for a win by about 10 points. There is no reason to push it here. The Sixers do want to win for playoff positioning reasons but they also want to stay healthy for the post-season. Remember that Embiid is still managing the recovery process with his left knee. So this one will likely be a closer game than many are expecting. Also, Brooklyn is just 10-13 SU last 23 games but only 3 of those 23 games was a loss by more than a dozen points! This line is in the 15.5 range and, knowing Philly wants to rest guys, I just can not foresee this game being a complete blowout. BROOKLYN (+)

Rotation #200105: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3 -130 in Arsenal vs Aston Villa @ 11:30 AM ET - These are two of the highest scoring clubs in the league. Arsenal is averaging 2.5 goals per match this season and Aston Villa scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. Considering that, even though this is a high-stakes match, I just can not see a situation where offensive attacking is NOT ruling the day in this one. These clubs can, and will, be on the attack! The fact the total is available at a 3 in the marketplace makes the value in getting involved with this one even stronger. Arsenal, since the turn of he year, has scored 38 goals in 11 EPL matches! Aston Villa, across all competitions, has scored an average of 2 goals per match last 6 matches! This is also a revenge match for the Gunners as they lost at Aston Villa 1-0 earlier this season. Arsenal had scored 2.5 goals per match in last 4 meetings with Aston Villa prior to that. All signs point to a strong effort for the hosts here as a result but Villa has the attacking ability to turn this into a helluva back-and-forth match. 2-2 or 3-2 is what I am projecting here. OVER 3 -130 in Arsenal

NHL Saturday: Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs New Jersey Devils @ 5 ET - The Flyers are not dead yet. They just got a huge win over the Rangers 4 to 1 to stay alive. Note that the Red Wings, Islanders, Penguins and Capitals are all battling with the Flyers for the final two spots available. Of these other 4 teams, they are ALL underdogs today! The point is that Philly knows they have a tough game with New Jersey here but they also know they have a great shot to stay alive because the odds favor the other teams faltering. The Flyers have to take care of business on their own and they have a lot of momentum and positive vibes after saving their season with a huge upset win of the Rangers. They got solid goalie work and won 4-1 at New York. Now they are on home ice facing a Devils team that has had big time goalie issues. Kahkonen could start here but he has been dealing with a lower body injury. He is back now but this would be his first long-term action in over a week. Also, he has allowed 5 goals in his last 66 minutes on the ice! Jake Allen has allowed 4 goals in each of his last two appearances. The desperate Flyers will be the more determined team here and also I look for another strong start from goalie Samuel Ersson. He has been strong on home ice in most of his outings dating back to the All-Star break and now he comes into this one off the great start against the Rangers in New York. He'll be rock solid here! The Devils allowed 5 goals but got the win over the Maple Leafs in most recent game. But they have been allowing a lot of goals of late and I am happy to fade them off a win. We are now in mid-April and in the two month period dating back to mid-February, the Devils have won B2B games only twice! Also, New Jersey is 0-6 when off a win in which they allowed 3 or more goals. That run becomes 7 in a row here. These teams are division rivals and the games are always important and adding to the value with the Flyers is the revenge aspect after the Devils beat them in the outdoor game at MetLife Stadium when these teams met two months ago. Flyers played hard there but were on the wrong end. They get payback here and keep their slim playoff hopes alive in the process. Price is a bargain currently in the -120 range. Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-) 

MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies (-) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 4 ET - I am coming right back with the Phillies today after losing with them yesterday. The Phillies lost B2B games to open this season but have not lost B2B games since. The Phillies are 5-0 L5 times off a loss. The Pirates have been a pleasant early season surprise but had lost 2 straight overall and 2 of last 3 on the road prior to the road win yesterday in the 2nd of 4 games in this series. Both starting pitchers are off to great starts this season but Turnbull has been even better than Gonzales. Turnbull has allowed just 5 hits and struck out 13 while Gonzales has allowed 9 hits and struck out only 6. Both have pitched 11 innings and Gonzales has allowed only 3 earned runs but Turnbull has not allowed any earned runs. The Phillies have a lot of guys with experience against Gonzales and they have had success against him. Turnbull was in the American League and, as you would expect, the Pirates have few hitters with experience against him. Those that do have gone a combined 1 for 11 against him. Phillies bounce back at home and make it 6-0 L6 times when off a loss! PHILADELPHIA (-)

Rotation #206921: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Saturday OVER 2 -118 in Universitatea Cluj vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 2:30 ET - Universitatea Cluj off a 1-1 draw on the road preceded by a scoreless draw at home. Prior to that one however, they had won 3 straight matches on their home pitch and scored an average of 1.7 goals per match. Petro will be ready to go here after an ugly 4-0 loss to Voluntari and this was a home match for Petro! They are fired up to respond and had scored an average of 1 goal per match in last 7 matches overall prior to that disaster. Though I do expect a strong effort to net at least 1 goal for Petro here, I also do not see them stopping the hosts in this one either.  Universitatea Cluj, just like Petro, have extras motivation to be aggressive on the attack in this one. OVER 2 -118 in Universitatea Cluj

Rotation #200125: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3.5+110 in Bournemouth vs Manchester United @ 12:30 ET - Manchester United is going to bring a strong effort here as Ten Hag is under pressure and this club needs to respond. They also have revenge on their minds for a crazy 3-0 home loss to Bournemouth earlier this season. However, though I do expect them to respond and though I do respect their capabilities on the attack, Man U can not be trusted defensively. Also, the Cherries are sure to bring a strong effort on their home pitch here. That said, this match should be filled with goals galore. Bournemouth has the added boost of confidence of the 3-0 victory over Man U earlier this season. However, Man U had won 3 straight meetings by a combined score of 9 to 2. Entering this match, Bournemouth has scored in 6 straight matches and averaged 2 goals per match! Man U has scored in 17 straight matches across all competitions and has averaged 2.2 goals scored per match! Man U also has the fewest draws (4) in the league and that means they are a club known for throwing caution to the wind in going for the wins in addition to also proving very susceptible to blown leads as well. This one I am anticipating a 3-2 type match here as a result but certainly 3-1 does the trick just as well. High-scoring battle on tap here. OVER 3.5 +110 in Bournemouth

Rotation #200117: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3.5 -135 in Manchester City vs Luton Town @ 10 AM ET - 3 straight City matches across all competitions have totaled 5 or more goals. Luton Town is off a rare win and did score 2 goals in that victory. Luton Town has now scored 28 goals in last 16 matches across all competitions. In other words, the goals should fly in this one! There is no way Luton Town is going to shut down this powerhouse club on their own turf. But, even on the road, these visitors have shown they can at least get on the board. At the same time, City is a very heavy favorite here with good reason. Look for at least a 3-1 type final here. City has won the last two meetings by a combined score of 8 to 3. This one has 4-1 written all over it. City is rolling strong again with 11 goals scored in last 3 matches across all competitions. They have conceded an average of 2 goals per match last 3 as well. Luton Town throws caution to the wind here because they really have no choice. As a result, the goals fly here! OVER 3.5 -135 in Manchester City

NHL Friday OVER 5.5 -115 in St Louis Blues vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 8 ET - Both teams have motivation as the Hurricanes are looking at playoff positioning while the Blues are still hoping to sneak into the post-season. With both teams bringing a strong effort I do expect the goals to fly here. The Canes have won 14 of 18 games and have scored an average of 4 goals in those 14 victories. Of course they are favored here on the road with good reason. St Louis has won 10 of 15 games and has scored an average of 4 goals in those 10 wins! 7 of the last 11 Blues games have totaled at least 7 goals. I know Carolina is strong defensively and in goal and is off a 4-1 win at Boston. However, prior to that, the Canes had allowed 11 goals in last 3 road games. The way both teams are playing in the offensive zone of late, getting 5.5 goals here is truly a bargain. OVER 5.5 -115 in St Louis

NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 7 ET - The 76ers have Embiid on the injury report but it is not due to injury but just managing his minutes as he recovers from the past injury that kept him out so long. However, I would be surprised if he does not play here. The Sixers are still trying to move into a playoff position and avoid the play-in portion of the post-season! By doing this Embiid could rest then! That said, and with time off both in front of this game and after this game, I expect Embiid to play here. Even if he does not, I still like the red hot Sixers to roll at home in this game! As for the Magic, Franz Wagner may not play here as he is dealing with a current ankle injury. Orlando has been missing him and he is again listed as questionable. Also, you know the Philly fans are going to give former Sixer Markelle Fultz a helluva tough time here as well and this Magic team has lost 3 straight road games. So Philly has won 6 straight games and Orlando has lost 3 straight road games and all by 9 or more points so covering the spread should not be an issue here either. Philly has also won both meetings this season and each victory was by at least 15 points. Also, dating back to last season, the 3 last meetings between these teams have all been Philadelphia wins by a double digit margin! It might seem like a big line here but it is set that way for a reason and this Sixers team is on a roll and they will not slow down here and the road slump for Orlando continues here. This line is in the 7.5 range and we will lay it with confidence! PHILADELPHIA (-)

MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -160 vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:40 ET - Bailey Falter is a former Phillie and will be pitching back in Philly for the first time since going to Pittsburgh mid-last season. The added pressure will likely do him no good. Falter has gone 0-6 on the road with a 6.55 ERA since the start of last season! He is road-adverse to say the least and he is in trouble here on the road at Philly. The Pirates over-achieved a little bit early this season but are coming back down to earth and have lost 4 of 8 since their hot start and that includes B2B defeats entering this game. The Phillies, on the other hand, underachieved early but are starting to play better! They have won 5 of 7 including B2B wins. Also, they are known for being a tough team at home in Philly. Sanchez is facing a Pirates team that has 7 hitters that have experience against them. Of those 7, six of them are a combined 0 for 12 against him. Sanchez had a 3.44 ERA last season and was solid in his lone home start so far this season. Remember that last season the Pirates were 7 games under .500 on the road and the Phillies were 17 games over .500 at home. Lets not over-react to the early season results this year. Also, you can already see a shift happening in that regard and it continues here. Look closely at these two lineups and think about which one you would rather have if you were building your own team...exactly! Phillies roll! PHILADELPHIA -160

Rotation #201805: Spanish La Liga: Friday OVER 2.5 +100 in Real Betis vs Celta de Vigo @ 3 ET - Celta de Vigo is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league in road matches. When away from home, they are averaging 1.5 goals scored per match! As for Real Betis, they are going to battle strong on their home pitch and take advantage of a visitor that is allowing 1.8 goals per match when on the road. You can see why goals can be expected to fly here. Helping the cause is the fact that Real Betis has been scoring well but also conceding at a high rate as their current run of form has resulted in 4 of last 5 matches totaling at least 3 goals and these matches averaged 4 goals apiece. This one also is testing a 6-0 run as Celta de Vigo has had 6 straight road matches total at least 3 goals and those matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Look for the over run to reach a perfect 7-0 with another high-scoring battle here. OVER 2.5 +105 in Real Betis

Rotation #201281: Italian Serie A: Friday OVER 2.5 -145 in Lazio vs Salernitana @ 2:45 ET - 4 of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals and these matches have averaged 3 goals apiece! Salernitana has allowed 2 goals per match this season and I see at least a 2-1 final here as Lazio has not exactly been a clean sheet machine of late! Lazio is allowing only 1 goal per match this season but also, after recent struggles, they are looking for a breakout game on the attack and I expect an aggressive approach and plenty of goal-scoring as a result. 3-0, 2-1 or 3-1 all seem like perfectly logical finals here and we take advantage of this total being available at 2.5 goals. OVER 2.5 -145 in Lazio

NBA Thursday New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 -115 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Pelicans off B2B road wins at Phoenix and Portland. Interestingly enough, the road team is a perfect 6-0 SU in the last 6 New Orleans games. Look for that road team trend to reach 7 in a row here as, of course, there is a reason the Kings are such a small home court favorite here! Note that Sacramento is 0-4 SU versus the Pelicans this season! In other words, we are testing multiple perfect trends here. The Kings enter this game having lost 5 of 8. I know the Pelicans have not been lighting the world on fire either of late but the road team trending above as well as the series dominance this season is what makes it easier to fade the slumping Kings here. Losing Huerter and Monk, one mid-March one late-March, also hurt the depth of Sacramento. Additionally, Keegan Murray is dealing with a left calf issue. He played through it in most recent game but is questionable here. The Kings might rest him with this being the front end of a B2B situation. Even if he plays, he is not 100% and the already short-handed Kings are in trouble here. The Pelicans have been without Brandon Ingram for a few weeks now but have 3 wins over playoff teams (Heat, Bucks, Suns) the past few weeks without him. Over a similar period, the struggling Kings have only beat 1 playoff team. As noted above, this line is set this way for a reason and the small dog road team is the way to play this one! Look for the Pelicans to make it 5 in a row over Sacramento plus the road team trend reaches 7 in a row! NEW ORLEANS +1.5 -115

MLB Thursday: OVER 8.5 -120 in Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7 ET - This is a contrarian play as the Red Sox and Orioles starters both present impressive ERA numbers and so do the bullpens. Already this posted total has moved from a 9 down to an 8.5 in a number of places. I expect the Red Sox to hit well at home and the Orioles got to the Sox pen yesterday in their huge comeback win and can do that again here. However, also note that Baltimore could get to Whitlock better than most might expect. He has had one day start and one night start this season. He did not allow any earned runs in night start but, in 4 innings  he allowed 4 hits and 4 walks. Last season Whitlock had a 6.34 ERA and a .326 BAA in his night games. As for the O's Rodriguez, he gave up 7 hits and walked 2 in less than 5 innings in his only start versus the Red Sox last season and that was here at Fenway Park. Again, a bit of a contrarian play but you can see exactly why I am expect runs to again flow between these teams, just like yesterday. OVER 8.5 -120 in Boston

NHL Thursday Philadelphia Flyers +1.5 -140 @ NY Rangers @ 7 ET - The Flyers are getting some attention today as the money line on this game keeps moving lower even though Philly has been in an awful slump. So who would be betting Philadelphia when they are slumping so badly? Sharps! That said, I still don't trust the Flyers on the money line here as a big dog but I do expect an ultra-competitive effort against the division rival Rangers. Therefore, the value here is with the puck-line. If the Flyers fall short, look for it to be by just a single goal. Coming off some ugly losses including that 9-3 beatdown at Montreal, the Flyers will be ready to respond big here. Their playoff chances are now slim but they are not done yet. The funny line movement on this one clues us in. The underdog is the play. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -140

NHL Thursday OVER 6.5 -105 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils @ 7 ET - With no playoff pressure now, look for the Devils to play a wide-open style here with plenty of scoring opportunities going both ways. As for the Maple Leafs, they are starting Samsnov between the pipes and he has been playing well but I look for New Jersey to bring an aggressive effort and pepper him with shots. Of course the strength of the Leafs is in the offensive zone and they will take advantage of facing a struggling Allen between the pipes for New Jersey in this one. Allen just allowed 4 goals to the Leafs and I expect more of the same in this one. Toronto has won 6 of 7 games and averaged scoring 4 goals per game during this hot streak. The Devils have had 4 straight road games total at least 7 goals. Overall, 7 of last 9 New Jersey games have totaled at least 7 goals. More of the same here. 3 straight meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 7 goals and this one will too. OVER 6.5 -105 in Toronto

Rotation #224401: Europa League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg: Thursday OVER 3 -145 in Liverpool vs Atalanta @ 3 ET - The last time these clubs met was 4 years ago and it was after COVID had begun so the matches took place in empty stadiums. Liverpool still scored a total of 7 goals in those 2 matches and the 2nd meeting was after they already had a 5-0 lead plus Anfield was empty! Now imagine the charged atmosphere in the stadium for this one and you know where I am going here! The Reds are going to bring a super strong effort on their home pitch to look to get an advantage in the first leg of this one. However, Atalanta has solid attacking talent and the Reds have been nowhere close to flawless in front of their own goal. In other words, look for the visitors to score here. Also, Liverpool is certainly favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line with good reason. In other words, look for a 3-1 type final here...maybe 3-2. The goals should fly and the value of the over 3 in this one (even at higher juice) is certainly a nice perk as well in terms of mitigating risk if this one lands on 3 goals. Liverpool has had 5 straight matches overall total at least 3 goals and 4 of those totaled at least 4 goals so this spot is testing a 100% run L4. Also, L6 in Europa League action all totaled at least 3 goals and 5 of the 6 totaled 4 or more so this one also is testing a 5-0 100% run to the over. Atlanta has scored in all 8 Europa League matches during this campaign and averaged 2 goals scored per match! Look for the goals to fly in this one. OVER 3 -145 in Liverpool

Rotation #215205: Europa Conference League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg: Thursday OVER 2.5 +105 in Viktoria Plzen vs Fiorentina @ 12:45 ET - If you look at recent results for these clubs you will be looking under. However, the fact is Fiorentina likes to attack and they will want to be aggressive here on the road to establish the upper hand in the first leg of this match-up. This is going to force the tempo of the match and certainly Viktoria Plzen is going to put up at a fight here on their home pitch. They had B2B scoreless draws with Servette in the most recent match-ups in this competition but this followed Plzen rattling off 6 straight victories and scoring an average of 1.5 goals in those 6 wins in the Europa Conference League matches. Now they host a tough Fiorentina club that is undefeated in the 8 matches in this competition thus far and has scored an average of 2.5 goals in those matches. Given all of the above, I am envisioning a 2-1 type match here. Fiorentina has only 2 clean sheets in the 8 matches and they allowed an average of 1.7 goals in the other 6 matches. OVER 2.5 +105 in Viktoria Plzen

NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs @ 8 ET - I realize Wembanyama may not play here because of the late-season back to back and a season going nowhere. However, if he is out it certainly is about much more than point production. This guy has 7 blocks in each of last two games. The Spurs interior defense will be hurt. I am aware there are many injury issues for San Antonio right now but with both SA and OKC in a B2B spot, I expect very lax defense here. Oklahoma City knows they can easily win this without playing D and the Spurs are just fine getting into a run and gun type game. Yes, the Spurs win at Memphis was an under last night but San Antonio allowed the Grizzlies to take 104 shots from the field. The fact is that the Grizz just had an awful shooting night. Speaking of which, the Spurs also were a sub-par 10 of 40 from 3-point land last night. The Thunder are also off a game that stayed under last night but they also allowed a lot of shots (96) from the field but Sacramento had a 34% shooting night from the field. The situational aspects of this game dictate a small-ball style with a lot of run and gun style and very little defense. The Kings took 58 threes against the Thunder last night. Also, Oklahoma City now has Shai Gilgeous-Alexander back on the floor and he scored 40 last night. OKC scored 123 in the first meeting between these teams this season and then the last two meetings have each totaled 250+! More of the same here and we take advantage of a total in the 226.5 range on this one. OVER the total in Oklahoma City

NHL Wednesday OVER the total in St Louis Blues vs Chicago Blackhawks @ 8 ET - I lost a play involving the Blackhawks recently because they surprisingly got shutout on home ice. Yes, it has been a tough season for Chicago but they were playing better prior to that and should get back on track here. The Blackhawks have scored 10 goals in their 3 meetings with the rival Blues this season. However, they also just allowed 7 goals to St Louis in the most recent match-up. Overall, Chicago has been allowing too many goals this season and has allowed 3.6 goals per game last 10 games. St Louis has allowed 3.3 goals per game last 10 games. They are still fighting for a playoff spot - though hopes are slim - so that does two things here. It creates urgency for the Blues to be on the attack here and it also forces the division rival Blackhawks to push hard for scoring goals if they want to keep up in this one and try to play the role of spoiler. With this total at 5.5 goals we have added value on the over in a game that should get to at least 6 goals. 5 of the last 7 meetings between these clubs have totaled 6 or more goals. More of the same here. OVER the total in St Louis

MLB Wednesday OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3 ET - The teams combined to go 2 for 13 with runners in scoring position in yesterday's 3-2 Arizona win. Look for much more clutch hitting today! Both these lineups are loaded with guys that have had success against the starting pitcher they are slated to face today. Also, both Austin Gomber and Tommy Henry are off to tough starts this season. The Rockies Gomber is having command issues with his pitches again and walking too many guys. He has made two starts this season and already got rocked when he faced the Diamondbacks in Arizona in the first one. As for the Dbacks Henry, he has allowed 12 hits in 9 innings this season and that includes getting rocked by the Rockies earlier this season. That start was in Arizona too and now he has to face them on the road at Coors Field. Look for both starters to struggle here and note that Arizona bullpen ranks only in the middle of the pack and the Rockies bullpen ranks dead last in the NL based on ERA so far this season. This total has dropped from an opener of 12.5 down to a 12 as of 7 hours before first pitch and that also has added value to this play. OVER the total in Colorado

Rotation #224209: Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg Wednesday Borussia Dortmund +0.5 goals +115 @ Atletico Madrid @ 3 ET - Solid value spot with Borussia Dortmund on the goal line in this one. While it is certainly true that Atletico Madrid is tough on their home pitch, I like the fact that Borussia Dortmund is coming off a 1-0 loss but had won 5 straight matches prior to that. Also, Atletico Madrid is off a 2-1 win but prior to that they were on a 3-6-2 run. Yes, just 3 wins last 11 matches prior to that tight victory. Given the above, I like our chances of at least a draw in this one with the visitors from the Bundesliga definitely having been in better form. Long-term across al competitions, Borussia Dortmund has had only 7 losses last 46 matches. All we need is a draw here to cash our ticket and this one shapes up to be a tight, low-scoring defensive-minded battle. BORUSSIA DORTMUND +0.5 goals +115

Rotation #224213: Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg Wednesday OVER 2.5 -145 in PSG vs Barcelona @ 3 ET - The last time these clubs met it was a 1-1 draw. However, this followed 3 straight overs and those matches averaged 5 goals apiece! Barcelona enters this one having averaged 2 goals scored in their last 4 matches. Also, Paris Saint-Germain has averaged 2.4 goals scored in their last 7 matches. I like the fact that Barcelona is the more rested club but PSG is hosting this one in Paris. This should bring out the best from both clubs and I look for plenty of attacking from Barcelona. Yes, they are capable of strong defensive play but they would love nothing more than to get the upper hand on the road in this one and take care of some possibly weary legs for PSG. This will be the hosts 3rd match in about a week while the visitors have not played yet in the month of April. 3 of the last 4 Barcelona matches in Champions League action have totaled at least 4 goals and this one will too! OVER 2.5 -145 in PSG

MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies (-) at St Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 ET - I am riding the Phillies again today. Sonny Gray is back for the Reds today but likely limited to 65 pitches. Also, he declined on making a rehab start in the minors first. Could that come back to bite him here? I say there is a decent chance it does. The Phillies have some solid left-handed lumber that loves to face righties. Also, in terms of their right-handed bats it was good news for them to see Turner notch 3 hits yesterday plus Rojas, who had been off to a very rough start at the plate, also get 3 hits. The 2-3-4 hitters for the Phillies also had no strikeouts yesterday while each of the 2-3-4 hitters for the Cardinals had multiple strikeouts. The Phillies have Wheeler going today and he has already made 2 starts and has been stellar on the mound yet he has an 0-1 record. That will change to day because I expect Gray to be a bit rusty plus the Cardinals righty might only last 4 innings in this one. The Phillies take advantage as, already, extra bullpen was required yesterday due to the game going 10 innings so the Philly starting pitching edge here becomes an even bigger factor. Also, the Cardinals have been held to 3 or less runs in 4 of last 5 games. The Phillies have not been knocking the cover off the ball either but they have scored an average of 5.3 runs (not including extra innings of course) in the 4 wins in their current 4-2 run last 6 games! Also, the Phillies have won 3 of 4 road games this season and confidence is building again after the tough 2-4 homestand that began their season. Value here with the road team in the -130 price range! Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-)

NBA Tuesday OVER in Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons @ 7 ET - The 76ers have been red hot and have 2 days off after this game and were off yesterday too of course! So, with another game not until Friday, the Sixers - no matter who is on the floor - will go all out here. Certainly they have been rejuvenated recently with Embiid playing some and Maxey playing some but, even if guys are rested some here, this Philly team has been showing their depth and they are sure to go all out here. In other words, look for them to surely push the pace here especially because they are excited to be closing out the regular season at home. Believe it or not, this will be just the 3rd home game the 76ers have had since mid-March! That road heavy schedule is why their final 3 games of the season are at home. The Sixers have averaged 116 ppg in winning 5 straight games and that average does not include OT points. Against the Pistons this season, Philly is 3-0 and has averaged 122 ppg in those games. In the last two they averaged 126.5 ppg. The Sixers are a 16 point favorite here so, even going with the lower average against Detroit that puts this final around 122-106 but finishing near the latter average would put this one in the 126-110 range. The point is that both these results crush the total in the 221 to 221.5 range which is posted on this game. The Pistons season is long finished but they could have Cade Cunningham back tonight and, either way, they will be happy to play a fast-paced game with Philly where defense is an after-thought. I am fully projecting that type of game here without a doubt and feel that will push this one into the 230s. OVER in Philadelphia

NHL Tuesday: Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) @ Montreal Canadiens @ 7 ET - This is it for the Flyers. Essentially a must-win to keep playoff hopes alive. They face a Montreal team that has lost 4 of 5 and the Canadiens were outscored 19 to 8 in the 4 losses. One of the recent wins the Habs have was against the Flyers so this is a revenge spot for Philly. As bad as things have been for the Flyers, they are still mathematically alive and they have a tough road game on deck so they must get this one here knowing their final two games of the season are winnable ones on home ice. On a losing streak, Philly responds here with one of their best games of the season and that proves to be enough in this revenge spot versus the Canadiens. The line is in the -135 range and offers solid value. PHILADELPHIA (-)

NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 -110 in New Jersey Devils vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7 ET - The Maple Leafs are in a B2B so Woll will likely get the start in goal here. The Devils, because Kahkonen got hurt, are likely to use Allen here. Though he is off a game in which he allowed just 1 goal, this followed him allowing nearly 4 goals per game over a 5-game stretch and he did allow at least 3 goals in all 5 starts. That said, strong odds on each team getting to 3 goals here the way I see it and that would translate to nothing less than a 4-3 final. Note that Woll has allowed 4 or more goals in 2 of his last 3 starts. Also the Leafs recently welcomed back Mitch Marner after he missed about a month and he boosts Toronto's production in the offensive zone. The Maple Leafs have won 5 of 6 and scored an average of 4 goals per game in the 5 victories. New Jersey is off a 3-2 loss but this was preceded by 5 straight games totaling at least 7 goals and those games averaged 8 goals apiece. OVER 6.5 -110 in New Jersey

NHL Tuesday Washington Capitals +140 @ Detroit Red Wings @ 7 ET - Like the Flyers tonight, this is another playoff hopeful that is mired in a losing streak. One of the things I like about the Capitals here is that TJ Oshie did travel with the team for this 2- game road trip and that is a huge boost even if he is not on the ice tonight but I do expect him out there. Even if he does not go you are talking about a Washington team with their backs to the wall and the underdog price is what makes this one a huge value. The Red Wings are off a win but this followed losing 13 of 17 games and during this stretch Detroit only won B2B games one time. I am going to challenge the Red Wings to win B2B games here and grab the underdog price with a Capitals team ready to circle the wagons for this one and come up with a huge performance on the road boosted by the impending return of Oshie - possibly even tonight! WASHINGTON +140

Rotation #224205: Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -145 in Arsenal vs Bayern Munich @ 3 ET - Quite a history here with 4 of last 5 meetings totaling at least 3 goals and also the fact that Bayern Munich has scored 5 goals in EACH of the last 3 meetings in Champions League action. Overall, 10 of last 12 Bayern Munich matches across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals. Those 10 matches have averaged 4.7 goals apiece! Arsenal has been on a great run defensively but I don't trust them to shut down a Bayern Munich team that always gives them trouble. At the same time, Bayern Munich has been far from water-tight defensively and this Arsenal club has scored average of 3 goals in last 13 matches across all competitions. OVER 2.5 -145 in Arsenal