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CFB Friday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars (+) vs Cincinnati Bearcats @ 10:15 ET - I like the underdog line value after the line move. This line has swung toward the Bearcats and currently we can get home dog BYU at +1 or +1.5 as of very early gameday morning. The fact is that Cincinnati had a lot of coaching changes heading into the season and even the assistant coaches that Scott Satterfield had ended up taking "better" opportunities elsewhere. Of course former head coach Luke Fickell moved onto Wisconsin. The point is that this one, for me, is as much a play against Cincy as it is a play on BYU. This is a tough spot for the Bearcats the way I see it. Yes they knew that beating Oklahoma last week was a lot to ask and sure enough they lost by two TDs. Still, the Cats did want that home game badly and now they are traveling on the road on a short week and in the thin air of Provo in Utah. This Brigham Young team is off a loss but they faced a tough Kansas team that is now 4-0 on the season. The Jayhawks are a different team under head coach Lance Leipold and there is no real shame in that loss for BYU. Still, that was the first loss of the Cougars on the season and I look for them to bounce back here at home and though the competition was weaker it is still worth noting something here. Brigham Young won first two home games this season by a combined score of 55 to 16 and they will make the most of this spot as it is their first home game in 3 weeks. Both teams have a bye on deck but I like the fact Bearcats are on the road here. Cougars will take advantage. The Cats lost at home to Miami-Ohio which is bad news for sure about the current state of this program. The fact that is their only ATS loss in 4 games this season while BYU is 1-3 ATS this season is also helping to give us line value here. Lets take advantage. 10* BYU + points

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - The Yankees are off a shutout loss yesterday but this followed wins in 5 of last 6 games and New York scored an average of 5 runs in the 5 victories. As for Kansas City, the Royals are off 3 straight losses and allowed 7 runs per defeat on average. However, KC is certainly happy to back home and the sweep at the hands of Detroit followed a hot stretch for Kansas City. The Royals had won 10 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game prior to falling apart against the Tigers. The bats should bounce back against Rodon here as the Yankees southpaw has been nothing special this season. As for the Royals Lyles, he is having a very rough season overall and the Yankees hammered him earlier this season and the same should hold true here. He is 5-17 with a 6.24 ERA on the year. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City

CFL Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers -7.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 8 ET - The Blue Bombers are 3-0 this season when off a loss and they also enter this game off a bye week! Also, all 3 of those wins after a loss were by at least 14 points. So this is a situation that is PERFECT on the season. Winnipeg off a loss is 3-0 with all 3 wins by at least 14 points and the line here is 7.5 and also note that the Argos have won 6 in a row and they also started the season 6-0 and then lost their next game by 13. So, from that aspect, this is also testing a perfect situation that should become a perfect 2-0 here. This Blue Bombers lost the Grey Cup to the Argos in November so this is finally their chance at revenge and they are at home and Toronto is on short rest while Winnipeg has extra rest coming off a bye week. Situations just do not get much better than this! We take advantage and look for a blowout home win by double digits here. Look for the Blue Bombers to improve to 4-0 ATS on the season when in this situation which again, is absolutely ideal for a win by 14 or more again! 10* WINNIPEG -7.5

Rotation #201901: Spanish La Liga: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -130 in Barcelona vs Sevilla @ 3 ET - Sevilla off a huge 5-1 win and carries plenty of confidence into this match-up. I do look for them to make the net ripple here but their struggles against Barcelona are well-documented. Also, Barcelona is going to be ruthless here as they are angry off a 2-2 draw in which they let a lead slip away. So, that being said, I am looking for plenty of scoring in this one on the basis of a dangerous road dog playing with confidence but an angry home favorite that will be relentless on the attack. 10* OVER 3 -130 in Barcelona 

Rotation #206933: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -125 in Otelul Galati vs Dinamo Bucuresti @ 2 ET - Otelul Galati is off their first win of the season but now watch them fall flat here against a hungry Dinamo Bucuresti club. Galati has scored 2 goals in 3 of last 4 matches but also has allowed 2 goals in B2B matches before rare B2B clean sheets. They have been a scrappy club but now look to build off that win and I believe they will emphasize the same attacking style that has helped lead to 2 goals scored for them in 3 of last 4. As for Dinamo, they are desperate to get going this season and have allowed an average of 2 goals per match on the season. They will struggle again to stop Galati here but I do expect them to get their attack going in in this one. All 4 of their road matches have totaled at least 2 goals this season and actually have averaged 3.5 goals apiece. Also, they had scored 1.7 goals per match in the first 3 on the road before being delivered a clean sheet in their most recent match on enemy pitch. They bounce back on the attack here but Galati scores as well at home and I love the value of the over 2 here and expect at least that but banking on 3 or more in this one. 10* OVER 2 -125 in Otelul Galati

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions @ 8:15 ET - This total has mostly held at 46 but is starting to drop to 45.5 at the time of this posting Thursday morning. The Lions caught the Falcons last week off a tight win over, ironically, these same Packers. It was Atlanta's first road game of the season and the perfect spot for the Falcons offense to fall flat and they did just that. Sure some credit is due the Lions defense but lets not forget the week 1 win over KC saw the Chiefs, like a lot of teams, struggle on offense. Detroit then gave up plenty in the 37-31 OT loss to Seattle. I do like the Lions offense so far this season but am not yet sold on the defense. That said, the Packers should move the ball well here. They have really played well with Jordan Love at QB. Keep in mind in limited action last season he also played well behind long-time Packer Aaron Rodgers - now with the Jets but out with injury. The point is that Love is finally getting his opportunity and he is making the most of it. Now he can build momentum off a come-from-behind win last week. GB got that key win after a very slow start and lets not forget the Pack averaged 31 points in the first two games this season. So the point is that both teams are off lower-scoring games last week but these offenses showed what they could do the first two weeks this season. Considering the low-scoring trend of primetime NFL action this season are you surprised the odds makers have this total set in the mid-40s? Trust me it is not a mistake and the books are honestly expecting the same thing I am here and I am looking for 50+ in this one. 10* OVER the total in Green Bay

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-) vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 7:30 ET - The dominant line here as of early game day morning is 6.5 but there is some 6 out there and I am laying it. I am going to start here by talking about Colorado State which may surprise you but it is with good reason. What does Colorado State have to do with this game? Plenty! The Rams had the memorable devastating double-OT loss to Colorado two weeks ago. They never should have blown the big lead and lost that game and it was heartbreaking. Following the gut-wrenching loss they were going on the road to Middle Tennessee State. Situations from the scheduling gods don't get much better than that for the Blue Raiders. They were catching a team playing B2B games away from home and they were catching them off a soul-crushing loss. How did MTSU handle it? Like the very weak team they are. The Blue Raiders lost outright even though they were favored in that one. Now they face a Western Kentucky team that has dominated them in recent meetings and also comes in angry off B2B losses. The Hilltoppers are going to roll here at home. Not only have they won big in the last two meetings, they are also on a 6-0 ATS run in weeknight home games. You know the Toppers are fired up with this primetime weeknight opportunity on their home field and they will pull away as this one goes along! WKU improves to 7-0 ATS in this spot! 10* WESTERN KENTUCKY (-)

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles -120 vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:35 ET - I know Chris Sale has been pitching very well for the Red Sox and piling up strikeouts. However, there has been one exception recently and it is nothing new actually this season. Not only did Sale get rocked by the Orioles earlier this month, he also has been hammered by them in all 3 match-ups with them this entire season! In other words, the odds favor another rough outing for him here at Baltimore. As for the Orioles, they are trying to lock up the AL East division and Dean Kremer has solid numbers this season. That said, I am looking for the host to get the win here and I am taking advantage of the line value being afforded by Chris Sale being on the mound for the Red Sox. Note that he has allowed 18 earned runs in 12 innings against them this season and was rocked in all 3 starts. In other words, it is not a fluke and I look for more of the same here. 10* BALTIMORE -120

Rotation #201849: Spanish La Liga: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Granada vs Real Betis @ 1 ET - I like spots like this where the home club is the lesser team. Generally speaking they will put up a fight on their home pitch but also struggle to stop the opposition. This looks like another one of those situations. Granada is near the very bottom of the La Liga table but is scoring an average of 1.5 goals per match. The issue for them is they are also allowing 3 goals per match. Real Betis is a solid club but has allowed 10 goals in 3 road matches this season. Neither club is happy with their overall performance so far this season and so both will be pushing hard for solid results this week. I expect each club to find the back of the net and note that Granada has not had a draw in any of its 6 matches this season and Real Betis has not had a draw in any of its 3 road matches this season. We should see at least a 2-1 final here the way I forecast this one to play out. 10* OVER 2.5 in Granada

Rotation #201229: Italian Serie A: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Frosinone vs Fiorentina @ 12:30 ET - Frosinone on home pitch and the average score of their 3 home matches in league action thus far is 2-2 and there is certainly nothing average about that. They will put up fight here as a host in this one but they will not be able to stop Fiorentina either. Home and away it has not mattered for Fiorentina as they are both scoring an average of 2 goals per match plus conceding 2 goals per match. In 3 matches away, Fiorentina does not yet have a draw and in 3 matches at home Frosinone does not have a draw so there is an extra comfort level here that we see at least a 2-1 final here. Odds are both clubs score - and you can see why per the above - and odds are there is no draw so these factors lend themselves to a 2-1 final at the very least here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Frosinone

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs  Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Sheehan has been quite impressive at times  for the Dodgers but also has been a bit "hit and miss" per se so he is not yet a model of consistency and Coors Field is a tough place to pitch. That said, I am expecting the Rockies to get to him here on a hitter-friendly evening as the weather is good and the ball will be carrying very well as usual at Coors Field. The Rockies are expected to start Davis and he will struggle here against a potent Dodgers team. LA is very relaxed at the plate right now because they are essentially locked into the #2 seed for the post-season. They won't catch the Braves but also the Brewers will not catch them so LA can continue to be very relaxed at the plate. Yesterday Game 2 of the double header was an 11-2 Dodgers win and the first game saw each team just miss the double digit mark in hits though the game stayed well under as Colorado got a surprising win in that opener. The Rockies entered this series having scored an average of 6.6 runs per game in their last 10 games at home and each team used some extra bullpen yesterday. The Dodgers have won 13 of 19 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. They can explode again at Coors Field like they did in yesterday's nightcap but the Rockies should join the hit parade party in this one as well. 10* OVER 12 in Colorado 

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Pirates +110 @ Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:40 ET - I  do not think the Phillies are too concerned with the Pirates right now! They were yesterday but for sure but that 3-2 win in the 10th inning was the first walk-off playoff-clinching home win since 1920 and it came in extra innings after they blew a 2-0 lead. The celebrations at home were huge for Philly last night and I expect a rather disinterested bunch for this one! Conversely, the Pirates are a scrappy group as they showed again yesterday and also Johan Oviedo has been pitching very well. So, even though Ranger Suarez has also been pitching well for the Phillies, I think he could be supported by a different lineup than usual as Philadelphia may rest some guys. Also, any Phillie that does play may not be 100% after last night's post-game festivities. Look for the road dog to take advantage as Oviedo and the Pirates will be the more focused group. 10* PITTSBURGH +110

Rotation #200661: EFL Cup | Third Round: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -135 in Newcastle United vs Manchester City @ 3 ET - This total opened at a 3 and has dropped to a 2.5 in most spots and I am well aware some of the stars may play less here or may not play at all. That's because the EFL Cup truly does not take precedence over the current task at hand which is the English Premier League season. However, even with consideration to this, I feel this total is absolutely a bargain. I do not foresee either club being shutout nor do I foresee either club settling for a draw. So you should be looking at least a 2-1 final here. Keep in mind, I just got burned by Manchester City when I had the over this past week and it was 2-0 after 14 minutes but never got a 3rd goal. A key issue there was a red card right away in the 2nd half for Man City and that completely changed the complexion of the match. I look for City to now be relentless here no matter which personnel are on the pitch. Also note that Newcastle United is coming off an 8-0 thrashing in EPL action and 8 different players scored! Again, this is another reason to like the over here no matter who is on the pitch as the hosts are rolling with confidence after all those guys found the back of the net over the weekend while, of course, the juggernaut that is Man City certainly will play with plenty of attack in them as well for this one. The last two meetings here at St James' Park have totaled 4 and 5 goals, respectively. More of the same on tap here! 10* OVER 2.5 -135 in Newcastle United

Rotation #201205: Italian Serie A: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Cagliari vs AC Milan @ 12:30 ET - The money line on this match looks funny to me as AC Milan is a smaller favorite than expected. I feel this is telling though. The fact is Cagliari has scored only 1 goal in its first five matches this season but they are at home and I feel the odds makers are telling us a little something with this money line! That said, I like the over here. Cagliari is going to put more emphasis on the attack here and they should find the back of the net at least once as they draw a little added confidence from being on their home pitch. Perhaps AC Milan will underestimate them too on their travels as they are allowing 2 goals per match away from home this season. However, AC Milan is also scoring an average of 2 goals per match overall this season in league matches. That said, I am looking for AC Milan to come storming back even if they do get down and, either way, looking for at least a 2-1 final here. Cagliari is known for low-scoring matches but they know they need to get their attack going as they are languishing near the bottom of the table. They are a newly promoted club and I look for AC Milan to look to flex their muscles a bit against them in this one and they may pile up some big scoring opportunities. Look for them to cash in on a few of them along the way! 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Cagliari

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:40 ET - Look like Olson for the Tigers here Greinke for the Royals but, regardless of starting pitchers in this one I like the over. Right now KC is tied with Texas as the hottest teams in the American League and Philadelphia is the hottest team in the National League - in terms of current hot streaks. Kansas City has actually won 10 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this hot streak. The Tigers bullpen is not great and the Royals bullpen has been bad this season. I know Detroit is not known for scoring well but they have won 7 of 11 games and averaged 4.6 runs per game in those 11 games. We only need 8 runs here to be a winner and Greinke is 1-15 with a 5.37 ERA on the season. If it is Reese Olson for Detroit here, he has been pitching well. However, this Royals team is hot at the plate and playing with a lot of confidence right now. I could see him struggling and this total is just far too low given all the variables here. 10* OVER 7.5 in Detroit

Rotation #200625: EFL Cup | Third Round: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -130 in Manchester United vs Crystal Palace @ 3 ET - This Manchester United club is much better than they have shown thus far this season in league action. I look for them to build off their 1-0 win over Burnley and now carry some momentum right into this EFL Cup battle. However, Crystal Palace is off a scoreless draw and will be more aggressive on the attack here after that disappointing result against Fulham. The last time Palace was on the road it was a 3-1 final in league action. Also, the last time they were on the road at Man U it was a 2-1 final. The last 3 matches between these clubs have averaged 3 goals and I am looking for another entertaining match here as Man U is going to be aggressive and look to really get rolling after that much needed win over the weekend. The thing is Crystal Palace can threaten them at the back as they have some extra confidence from scoring an average of 1.4 goals in their last 5 visits here. Looking for at least a 2-1 final here given all of the above. Crystal Palace should make the net ripple at least once but, of course, the hosts are a large favorite here for a reason! 10* OVER 2.5 -130 in Manchester United

Rotation #201869: Spanish La Liga: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -135 in Sevilla vs Almeria @ 1 ET - This Sevilla club is much better than they have shown thus far this season and the had scored 1.5 goals per match in their first 4 league matches before a scoreless draw in their most recent match. Sevilla will bounce back strong here at home for this one but don't be surprised if Almeria also makes the net ripple in what should be a highly entertaining match. Almeria has both scored and conceded in 5 straight matches in league action and those averaged 3.6 goals apiece. Looking for at least a 2-1 final here given all of the above. 10* OVER 2.5 -135 in Sevilla

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 9:38 ET - The Angels lineup is definitely not what it once was but they will take advantage of facing a struggling hurler today. Jon Gray is having a horrible September and it has been so bad he has not been able to work deep into starts and that could put pressure on the Rangers bullpen arms here after hanging on by a thread in yesterday's 9-8 win. Speaking of bad Septembers, that is also the case with Patrick Sandoval. That being said, there is a lot of value with the over in this one. Of course the Rangers are a big money line favorite here for a reason and they are a solid favorite at 1.5 runs on the run line for a reason too! I expect a 6-4 type game here at a minimum as the result. Note that Texas has allowed at least 4 runs in 6 of last 7 games. Also, the posted total on this game is 9 runs and 11 of the Rangers last 14 games have totaled at least 9 runs with 10 of those 11 getting to double digits! Texas has scored an average of 8 runs during their current 5-game winning streak. Even though the Angels are simply playing out the string on a tough season, they have had won 2 of 4 before yesterday's loss and, other than a 1-0 win in their five most recent games, LA did average 5 runs scored in the other 4 games. Given the pitching match-up and the current status of these two bullpens, both lineups should enjoy plenty of success here. 10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 7:15 ET - The current dominant number on this one is 5 though you might find a stray 4.5 out there - at least as of very early game day morning. This is a battle of early season unbeatens and the Eagles have started at least 3-0 (last season started 8-0), 3 times in the past 9 seasons. Tampa Bay, on the other hand, has not gone 3-0 in nearly TWO decades as you have to go all the way back to 2005. The Bucs have been around since 1976 - nearly a HALF century - and yet they only have started a season 3-0 THREE times! As you can see with historical odds like this, the Eagles certainly are the likely team to win this SU but what about the all-important cover? Well, Philly has 9 straight wins by 5 or more points and 15 of last 17 by 5 or more points. So 5 may not seem like a key number but it has been for the Eagles and, either way, look for a win by at least a TD in this one. Tampa Bay's last 7 SU losses have all come by 6 or more. The Eagles are so strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that will be key here. Also, imagine you are starting a team would you rather have Jalen Hurts at QB or Baker Mayfield? That is no disrespect to the latter but I have a feeling he is going to get a reality check this week against a tough Eagles defensive line that will pressure the hell out of him. Also, Sirianni is now 25-11 SU in regular season NFL as a head coach while Bowles is 36-50 SU as a head coach. The Eagles also have the rest edge after playing on Thursday last week so they have had extra time off compared to TB as the Bucs beat the Bears Sunday. The Eagles and Buccaneers have each played the Vikings this season. The Bucs were outgained 369 to 242 by Minny. Philly outgained Minnesota 430 to 374. In other words, the D numbers were similar but the Eagles offense put up nearly 200 yards more than TB. The Bucs are a decent team but they are over-rated right now. Philly is a Super Bowl contender. Lay it! 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) the points

Rotation #206893: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Rapid Bucuresti vs CFR Cluj @ 2 ET - CFR Cluj off a 1-0 win and Rapid coming off a 0-0 draw in Galati. Rapid and CFR Cluj are two of the better clubs in the league and, after matches like that last week, goals will be the story here in this week's match-up! Remember that CFR Cluj had won the week prior by a 4-1 count and that was on the road and Rapid had won the week prior by a 4-0 count! With CFR Cluj on the road again and Rapid hosting here in Bucuresti, those high-scoring ways will resume. Both clubs are scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. CFR Cluj has just 1 draw in 8 matches. That is another key as to why I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here. Each club will score at least one goal and the match will not end in a draw. The odds, and situation, favor all this in this one for Monday. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Rapid Bucuresti

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Las Vegas Raiders (-) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 8:20 ET - This is more of a play against the Steelers than a play on the Raiders but either way I do like this spot for laying the points with Las Vegas. The line is available at a 2.5 as of early game day morning and the Steelers are on a short week and traveling west and their off a key divisional win. They were heavily outgained by the Browns and so it is a deceiving win for the Black and Gold. This Pittsburgh team is just not that good as I have written before about them heading into this season. The Steelers have been continuing a downward trajectory and I faded them when they were destroyed by the Niners in Week 1. I know that they got the win last week but that was a gift-wrapped game from the Browns and the stats show that Pittsburgh has really struggled early this season. The Raiders are off an ugly loss but they faced an angry Bills team that is one of the best teams in the league. Buffalo was playing its home opener and was off a loss and the Raiders were in the wrong place at the wrong time. From the start of the season until October 9th, this is the only home game for Las Vegas and so they will make the most of this home opener. Also, under coach McDaniels they covered five of six times ATS when facing a team that was off a SU/ATS win like the Steelers are here. Pittsburgh started last season 1-4 and the year before 1-3 and Tomlin is in for another slow start this season and they will not be so lucky again this week like they were hosting Cleveland. First road game of the season for the Steelers and the Raiders have the rest edge and situational edge and roll huge at home. 10* LAS VEGAS (-)

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Cardinals vs Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - There are multiple ways to analyze this game, just like any game really of course. But I do feel my angle on this is the right one. This total is around a 43 as of early gameday morning and I feel strongly that it will prove to be far too low. I think Dallas could be a little flat defensively here. They played great in the divisional win at the Giants in Week 1. Then, in week 2, they played great in their home opener. Those were 2 very big, important match-ups. Now this week they have a non-divisional road game against a team projected to be one of the worst in the NFL. Do you really think the intensity level of the Cowboys defense is going to the be the same it was for a season opener against a division rival followed by a home opener? Me neither! At the same time however, the offense was not that good in week 1 as Prescott and everyone was rusty. They looked much better in week 2 and Prescott and company want to keep building on that here and they will take advantage of a very bad Cardinals defense here! As for the Arizona offense, they have been respectable early this season and, keep in mind, the Cowboys defense faced a Giants offense that has now been horrible in 2 of 3 games this season and a Jets offense that lost QB Aaron Rodgers to injury before they ever arrived in Dallas for that week 2 match-up. The Cardinals had nearly 400 yards of offense last week and I feel certain they will move the ball well here at home against a bit of a disinterested Cowboys D that will come in underestimating this team. At the same time, this weak Cards D has no chance of stopping a Dallas offense that is hell-bent on showing improvement with Prescott and Co on a mission early this season to prove the doubters wrong. 4 straight meetings and 6 of the last 7 between these clubs have totaled at least 45 points and this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Arizona

Rotation #206889: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Sepsi vs FCSB @ 2 ET - FCSB had the make-up match with Hermanndstadt on Thursday. Having a short time to prepare for this, look for some tired legs on defense and Sepsi will want to take full advantage on their home pitch and will be on the attack. However, FCSB is fired up about blowing a the lead in the 2-2 draw with Hermannstadt and a 2nd half red card did not help matters. This total is posted at 2.5 for a reason on this match and even at more than 2 this a great value considering 3 of last 4 Sepsi matches have totaled at least 3 goals! Also, each of the last two meetings between these clubs have totaled 3 goals. FSCB is at the top of the table and scoring an average of 2 goals per match. FCSB ahs seen 4 of its last 5 matches total at least 3 goals and I like the fact the #1 club in the league is hungry but on the road and could continue having trouble with conceding goals but will also be strong on the attack. Looking for at least a 2-1 final here as expecting both clubs to make the net ripple and then note that Thursday's draw was the first for FCSB this season. The odds of B2B draws is slim to say the least! 10* OVER 2.5 +120 in Sepsi

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ Washington Commanders @ 1 ET - Look around the league at undefeated teams after just 2 weeks of the seasons and one of the surprises is Washington. That is helping give us some value this week because this team is not that good and it is an undefeated team that deserves to be faded now. Adding to the value is the fact that Bills are just 1-1 this season. Buffalo already got knocked off in that OT opener loss to the Jets and they took out their frustration on the Raiders last week in a 38-10 blowout win. They are not done yet because now the mantra is to prove they can win on the road. The Bills will not rest here just because they won big last week at home. This team will be on a mission again here on the road. Also, there are triple perfect angles supporting this play. Note that coach Sean McDermott's teams have won six in a row ATS when they are off a game in which they scored at least 35 points. They will carry momentum here! As for Commanders coach Ron Rivera he has not fared well when his team has at least a .500 record on the season and his team is installed as an underdog as his teams have lost seven in a row ATS in that situation. Also, the Commanders have a divisional foe on deck in the form of the Eagles and they have lost four (or five depending on line) in a row ATS when Philadelphia is up next for them. All this is just situational data but the fact is it further supports our play here. Buffalo has been one of the top teams in the league in recent seasons while these Commanders have not had a winning season since the 2016 season. This line is around a 5 as of early gameday morning and this is in an excellent value. 10* BUFFALO (-)

Rotation #200077: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -130 in Sheffield United vs Newcastle United @ 11:30 AM ET - First off, I like the fact this total opened up at mostly 3 and then plenty of 2.5 became available. I am happy to fade the market move and take advantage of the line value as I fully expect 3 or more goals. Sheffield has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches in EPL action and all 4 of those totaled at least 3 goals. I also like the fact that Sheffield is at home for this one as well. They come in ready to battle and should score again but I believe Newcastle will be very aggressive here. Since a 5-1 beating of Aston Villa that opened up the season, Newcastle is actually just 1-3 last 4 matches and they scored only 1 goal in that lone win. So now here is a chance to flex their muscles against a weaker foe and they know they must be aggressive here on the road. This should lead to at least a 2-1 final here. 10* OVER 2.5 -130 in Sheffield United

Rotation #206897: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -125 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs Hermannstadt @ 11:15 AM ET - Hermanndstadt had the make-up match with FCSB on Thursday. Having a short time to prepare for this, look for some tired legs on defense and Petrolul Ploiesti will want to take full advantage. However, Hermannstadt has been scoring well and will battle back here and the value in an over 2 in Romania matches is huge. That is the total posted on this match and is a great value considering 4 straight Hermannstadt matches have totaled 4 goals! Petrolul Ploiesti is off a 1-0 road loss but their last 3 home matches have all totaled at least 4 goals and have actually averaged 5 goals apiece. So the over is 3-0 in last 3 Petrolul Ploiesti matches as a host and 4-0 in last 4 Hermannstadt matches overall. I am happy to test those double perfect runs here. 10* OVER 2 -125 in Petrolul Ploiesti

Rotation #200061: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -130 in Arsenal vs Tottenham @ 9 AM ET - Arsenal is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. Tottenham is also playing a much more aggressive style this season and they are scoring very well including scoring an average of 3 goals per match in their 3 road matches this season. The last two times these clubs met here, Arsenal won each match 3-1. I am again expecting 4 goals in this one as 3 of last 4 Arsenal matches across all competitions have totaled at least 4 goals. With the attacking style that Tottenham is playing, do not be surprised if we see a 2-2 draw here and, either way, I do like this one to get to 4 goals. 10* OVER 3 -130 in Arsenal

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Huskies vs California Golden Bears @ 10:30 ET - This total has dropped quite a bit from the opener and is in the 57 range as of early gameday morning. I feel we have excellent line value here as too much respect is being given to some defensive stats each team has but take a look at some of the offensive production. Cal is averaging 80 plays per game on offense and that rates as one of the highest rates in the nation. Washington rates as the most efficient team in the nation as their yards per play average is nearly 10 yards! Keep in mind, that is an average of nearly getting a first down with every snap. The Huskies are very dangerous and strong offensively and it looks like only light winds and light rain in the forecast for Husky Stadium Saturday night in Seattle. Keep in mind, the Huskies have scored more than 40 in every game this season and it is not like they faced FCS foes! The Golden Bears faced a tough defense when they faced Auburn but they woke up to score 31 points last week in the 2nd half against an FCS foe. In other words, had they also been awake for the first half one could logically say they would have scored 62 points! They did score 58 points in their first game and that was against an FBS foe as they faced North Texas. The point is that both teams are confident right now yet the Huskies favored by 3 TDS for a reason. Lets say the odds makers are right about this line. If Cal scores just 20 points but the line is correct at 3 TDs then a 41-20 final puts this game into the 60s. I feel we have excellent value here because this Huskies offense is running like a well-oiled machine so far but Cal can move the ball as well. The Golden Bears offense looks better than it has in the past and they have scored at least 20 in each of last 3 meetings with Huskies. This one gets into the 60s the way I see it! 10* OVER the total in Washington

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Iowa Hawkeyes (+) @ Penn State Nittany Lions @ 7:30 ET - It is impossible to forecast the exact timing of the rain but showers followed by heavy rain and some wind - not too windy but possible gusts - are moving into the area because of Tropical Storm Opheila. State College, PA is over 200 miles away the ocean but the fact is those bands of rain are coming deep inland and I love having big points with an underdog when conditions are a little bit sloppy. This is particularly true when it is a defensive-minded dog that likes to run the football. I know that the Nittany Lions have a great record so far and have looked good but they benefited firstly from rather easy opponents then first two weeks - dysfunctional West Virginia team and an FCS team (Delaware) - and then secondly from Illinois turning the ball over 5 times against them last week! Penn State is a rock solid team and I really like their QB too. They have the definite aerial attack edge in this match-up but you can tell by the low total posted on this game, this one is expected to be a low-scoring defensive-minded rush-oriented match-up. This Hawkeyes team has a very tough defense and they are well-coached. Kirk Ferentz is the longest-tenured coach in the nation and has been here for a quarter-century now! The Hawkeyes have won the the last two meetings outright and, while I am not anticipating that here, I am expecting this one to be decided by a one-score margin. That means excellent line value with Iowa available at +14.5 and no less than +14 as of early gameday morning. We'll take it! 10* IOWA + points

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +1.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - This is a great spot for a home dog because the Stampeders are not only off a bye week, it was preceded by an ugly loss at Edmonton in which they had a disastrous 4th quarter and gave up 18 points unanswered in the loss. That means the Stamps can't wait to get back on the field make up for that loss to the Elks and they have extra energy - physical and mental - as they have been off for two weeks leading into this. Montreal has lost 4 straight and their win before this losing streak was by just a 1-point margin. Stampeders having a rough season too but this set-up is perfect for payback. 10* CALGARY +1.5

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs UCLA Bruins @ 3:30 ET - This line has been all over the place because of the uncertain status of QB Cameron Rising for the Utes. Let me tell you what we do know about this match-up. Kyle Whittingham is a better coach than Chip Kelly. The UCLA young quarterback has played well but makes his first ever PAC-12 road start. The Bruins are playing right into the teeth of revenge as UCLA won a tight one (though double digit final margin of 10) over Utah last season. That was the 1st win in 4 tries for Kelly with the Bruins against Whittingham with the Utes. The first 3 meetings...how did those go? Utah won all 3 by at least 20 each team and with an average margin of victory at 32 points! There is nothing average about that and the Utes defense got embarrassed last season at UCLA. That is where one of the biggest keys lies in this rematch. Everyone is talking about QB Rising and the fact he may miss again but the Utes offense has still been decent and they still have the better defense in this match-up plus they are at home and plus this Utah defense wants to prove that last season was an aberration. A lot of key factors including a solid low number here (3.5 as of early gameday morning) have me all over the Utes in this one! 10* UTAH (-) points

Rotation #206909: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -110 in Universitatea Cluj vs Universitatea Craiova @ 2:30 ET - Each club is scoring an average of 1.5 goals per match and I am expecting 3 goals here. Universitatea Cluj is off a 1-0 road win but lost their most recent home match in shutout fashion. This was highly unusual for them as their two matches prior to that had combined for 11 goals. The high-scoring ways resume here as you know the hosts will respond after an embarrassing home shutout loss their last time here. They will have their hands full stopping this Universitatea Craiova outfit however. They are near the top of the table in the league and they will take advantage of a Universitatea Cluj club that is allowing 2 goals per match.  Universitatea Craiova has been shutout in their last two road matches so you know what their focus will be here. Attack, attack, attack...and then attack some more! These visitors have allowed an average of 2 goals per match their last 3 matches so don't be surprised if, given all the variables here, we see a 2-2 match. Either way, I see this one getting to 3 or more goals. 10* OVER 2.5 -110 in Universitatea Cluj

Rotation #200053: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in Brentford vs Everton @ 12:30 ET - Both teams off 1-0 losses last week you know what is coming this week...an emphasis on attacking and scoring some goals! Brentford normally attacks well and scores well. Everton has only 2 goals this season but those came in their 2 road matches. Brentford was averaging 2 goals scored per match before being shutout last week. Also, the Bees are winless at home with 3 draws so they will push hard for the full 3 points in the table here and I am anticipating a 2-1 type final as a result. Keep in mind Brentford has allowed at least 1 goal in 4 straight games. The loss last week for Brentford was their first league loss since May so they will be ready to bounce back strong here! They have scored at least 1 goal in 16 straight home matches in league action as well! I like Brentford to score well at home here but I also like Everton to take advantage of some injury concerns for the Bees at the backline. That said, look for more scoring than most are expecting here after last week's 1-0 matches! 10* OVER 2.5 in Brentford

Rotation #206905: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -130 in FC Botosani vs UTA @ 11:45 AM ET - Yesterday, Galati got their first win of the season and this looks like a great spot for the only other club (Botosani) that is still without a victory to get their first of the new campaign. That said, Botosani will be more aggressive on the attack knowing this UTA club is just above them in the standings and this is a winnable match for the hosts. However, the visitors certainly viewing this one the same way as they face the last-place club in the league. The result here will be an aggressive approach from each club in terms of attacking. Note that the last 3 meetings between these clubs have averaged 3 goals apiece and all of them had multiple goals and there is a lot of value here with this total set at a 2. As for Botosani, 2 of their last 3 matches have totaled 4 goals and all of them have totaled at least 2 goals. UTA is much better club than their record shows and they will take advantage of facing a lesser foe to get their goal-scoring going again. 10* OVER 2 -130 in FC Botosani

Rotation #200049: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -130 in Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest @ 10 AM ET - Looks like Jack Grealish could be available for this one for City but, either way, I am expecting plenty of scoring. Manchester City has won 12 straight Premier League home matches in 2023 and have scored an average of 3 goals per match in these victories. City has conceded at least 1 goal in 4 straight matches so I do expect Nottingham Forest to make the net ripple at least once. Note that Forest has faced a tough slate of matches early this season yet they are averaging 1.4 goals scored per match. City is a powerhouse though, in particular at home, and they get the big win here and I am looking for a 3-1 type match here. 10* OVER 3 -130 in Manchester City

CFL Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +6.5 vs BC Lions @ 9:30 ET - Great spot for the Elks as a home dog. Both teams off comeback wins last week but the Lions win was particularly improbable. The BC defense has not been what it was earlier this season and the Elks grind the ball on the ground more than the Lions do. I feel they can grind out a win here but, of course, am grabbing the points. Edmonton has been playing better for quite awhile now and have won 4 of 5 and the only loss was by 4 points! As for BC, the Lions have beaten Edmonton by a combined score of 49-0 in the first two games so you know this one has been circled on the Elks calendar. Edmonton wants this game. Keep in mind, the Lions are just 3-3 SU last 6 and one of those wins was by only 4 points. This one goes to the wire and an outright upset would not surprise me in the least. 10* EDMONTON +6.5

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in New York Yankees vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - This line has dropped in part because of the wind blowing in because of the approaching tropical storm. However, just because the wind is blowing in does not mean guys can't make contact and spray the ball all over the field. Both these pitchers have had tough seasons. Pfaadt for the Diamonbacks and Weaver for the multiple teams he has been with this season. Both guys have struggled. The Yankees got their sticks going a bit and remember they just faced some tough Toronto pitching. No, the Yankees lineup is not great this season but this is a low total and the Yanks do tend to hit better at home and had been scoring a bit prior to the first couple games of the Jays series. The Diamondbacks have been hot and scoring runs and they should stay hot here. The Dbacks bullpen has not been great this season and Pfaadt unlikely to go deep. Take advantage of the low total here and look for 9 or more as this is a low total when it is not Cole vs Gallen. This total just too low. 10* OVER 8 in New York Yankees

Friday CFB 10* Top Play OVER 53.5 in Purdue Boilermakers vs Wisconsin Badgers @ 7 ET - I am going to take advantage of a low total here. This total is based more on long-term reputation of the Badgers defense but this Wisconsin defense is just not what it once was. Even Georgia Southern threw all over them last week and would have had a lot more points were it not for turnovers. The week before the Badgers allowed 31 at Washington State. The Badgers have scored at least 35 points in both their wins this season and they are favored here for a reason. However, the fact that Purdue has a solid passing game, led by a former UT QB (Card) whom I liked quite a bit there, means that the Boilermakers should turn this into a back and forth high-scoring affair. The Boilers have a solid passing attack but, like the Badgers, they have had some issues on defense. They are allowing about 400 yards per game and they allowed at least 35 in each of their two losses. It will be very nice weather for an over in West Lafayette, IN tonight as well. Light winds and very mild temperatures. Last season these teams totaled 59 points in their meeting and the defenses were better then than they are now. The Badgers offense will continue to get a little better week by week as they have a new head coach in Luke Fickell this season. Wisconsin has averaged scoring 39 points in last 4 meetings with Boilers. Again, the issue is the Badgers defense is not a typical Wiscy defense and we take advantage just as the Boilermakers passing attack will as well! 10* OVER 53.5 in Purdue

Rotation #206901: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -105 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs Farul Constanta @ 2 ET - First off when playing an over 2.5 you want to look at draw rates. If a match gets to 1-1 will it end like that or does it have strong odds on getting to at least 2-1? In this case, note that Farul has had NO draws in 8 matches this season. Also, their matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. Dinamo has had some trouble scoring goals this season but they will take advantage of what has been a troubled backline for Farul. Also, the fact Dinamo gets this match at home will also help in the goal-scoring department. They should make the net ripple at least once but they are a dog here for a reason and Farul likely to give them a lot of trouble. Dinamo allowing an average of 2 goals per match and Farul is as well. That is why I am forecasting the winning team to have at least 2 goals and the loser should get on the board as well as you can see with these poor goals-conceded numbers. Farul and Dinamo will both be on the attack here as they are fired up after recent poor performances in the goal-scoring department. They each know they can take advantage of weaker backline play that has been on display for both these clubs so far this season. Look for a wild and entertaining one at Stadionul Arcul de Triumf in Bucuresti on Friday night as these city is passionate about this club and now the defending champs are in town! 10* OVER 2.5 -105 in Dinamo Bucuresti

Rotation #206917: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -150 in FCU Craiova 1948 vs Otelul Galati @ 11 AM ET - You can also take over 2.5 goals here at plus money but I would recommend taking 2 goals even at high juice as it is a key number in Romanian Soccer. However, I will say that of course I am expecting 3 or more goals or I would not be making this bet! That said, Galati have been the draw specialists this season as they have had 8 draws in 9 matches. That would lead one to believe a 1-1 draw is a possibility for sure. However, FCU Craiova 1948 has been at the other end of the spectrum with 0 draws in 9 matches! Also, while Galati matches have averaged just 2 goals apiece, FCU Craiova 1948 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. That is the highest average in the league and they will be pushing hard at home here for a win as they also have a new head coach as they welcome back Paul Raducan. There is going to be strong effort from the home club but I don't see the visitors going away without a fight either. Before last week's scoreless draw, they had scored at least 1 goal in 4 of last 5 matches. Looking for a 2-1 final here at the very least as the hosts will play a relentless style here and be on the attack early and often. 10* OVER 2 -150 in FCU Craiova 1948

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ San Francisco 49ers @ 8:15 ET - Laying double digits in the NFL is always a scary proposition in my book and the situation becomes even tougher on a short week. That's because a lot of things have to go right to beat any NFL team by double digits. That is why you don't see many double digit lines in the NFL. Being fully prepared to blowout a team is even tougher when playing on a Thursday after a Sunday win over a divisional foe. SF has failed to cover 6 of last 7 on Thursday when coming off a SU win in their prior game. This line is a solid 10.5 at the time of this posting and I feel we have excellent value with the big road dog in this one. Everyone is still thinking about the Giants losing to Dallas 40 to 0 in Week 1 primetime but are forgetting that the Cowboys only had 265 yards of TOTAL offense in that game! To put that in proper perspective, this 49ers team (which certainly is strong and has a solid defense too) allowed 297 PASSING yards to the Rams in their win last week! So lets not bury the Giants just yet in comparison to the Niners. The Giants got caught still lamenting the embarrassing home loss to the Cowboys when they were down by 21 midway through the 3rd quarter at Arizona last week. However, the Giants rally did two things last week. It gave them a win of course, which is big, but the bigger thing it did was give them confidence. This Giants team feels much different now emotionally and mentally heading into this battle with the Niners and they have done very well as a road dog under HC Brian Daboll as they went 8-2 ATS in that role last season. I know Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants here but guess who Matt Breida started his career with? San Francisco of course! Watch Breida have a huge game against his former team and the Giants surprise in this one! I am not saying they win this one outright but I am feeling confident in a game decided by a one score margin. Give me the double digits here! Daboll will have his team ready and he was Coach of the Year last season and will not be embarrassed again on primetime like they were in that sloppy week one loss to the Cowboys. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS (+)

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Coastal Carolina (-) vs Georgia State @ 7:30 ET - This series has been dominated by the road team recently and, in my opinion, that is keeping the line (6.5 at time of this posting) on this one lower than it should be. Coastal Carolina is really rolling under their new coach after all the changes made after last season's last collapse. I like this Chanticleers team. I am not crazy about their defense but they have enough offense to dominate in this one. Keep in mind, new head coach Tim Beck was offensive coordinator at NC State and he has this offense firing on all cylinders now. They have played the tougher schedule than Georgia State thus far. The Chanticleers had to face the Bruins at UCLA and having that one really tough game and a SU loss helps them here. Georgia State is 3-0 SU but has not really been challenged yet. The Chanticleers are 3-0 ATS this season as they did cover in that SU loss at UCLA. The Panthers have been allowing more points than Coastal Carolina and CC has the stronger offense too. Combining all that with the home field edge, the play here is the home team as laying less than a TD is a real bargain here and the current line is 6.5 on this one at time of posting. The Chanticleers are 100% ATS this season and I am happy to test that here. Look for 4-0 ATS after this one goes in the books! 10* COASTAL CAROLINA (-)

Rotation #206929: Romania Liga 1: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +110 in Hermannstadt vs FCSB @ 1 ET - Hermannstadt is sure to put up a fight here at home and FCSB is rotating in some of their personnel for this one because of a shorter than usual rest cycle due to this being a rescheduled match from earlier in the season. Both these clubs will be playing again later this weekend. That said, I do look for Hermannstadt to get on the board here with making the net ripple at least once but of course FCSB is favored for a reason. Also note that FCSB is currently at the very top of the table for the 16-club league and they have not had a draw yet this season. So if each team scores and a draw is unlikely, that puts this one at least 2-1. FCSB is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season and has scored in all 8 of their matches! Hermannstadt has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches and in 6 of last 7. Those 6 matches have averged 3.5 goals apiece. Each of Hermannstadt's last 3 matches have totaled 4 goals! Having scored 7 goals in their last 3 matches at home, they have plenty of confidence here. 10* OVER 2.5 +110 in Hermannstadt

Rotation #224417: Europa League | Group Stage: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +115 in LASK vs Liverpool @ 12:45 ET - Having narrowly missed out on Champions League Football for this season, Liverpool will come to this competition ready to impose their will. They are currently in top form and that means even if they mix in some other personnel in this one they will be too much for this Austrian opponent. LASK, however, is at home and playing with confidence as they are off to a strong start in their league. They also have scored 2 goals in 4 straight matches as a host. However, Liverpool also has plenty of attacking prowess and also has the talent edge here. That said, I am looking for a 3-1 type match here. The Reds are just too strong but have been a bit leaky at the back and you know LASK is going to play aggressive on their home pitch and look to attack that weakness. That said, a 3-2 final would also not completely shock me. Either way, plenty of goals in what should be a highly entertaining affair here in this one. 10* OVER 3.5 +115 in LASK

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:45 ET - This total moving to a 9 in some spots with good reason. The Brewers finally got their bats going again yesterday and will have no trouble with the offerings of Thompson here. The Cardinals do tend to hit better at home and should hammer Houser in this one. Note that Houser is 2-4 with a 5.01 ERA in night games this season. Opponents are hitting over .300 against him in road games and in night games this year. Thomson has a 4.75 ERA in night games this season and opponents hitting .283 against him under the lights. He is facing a Milwaukee team that has won 9 of 14 and scored an average of 7 runs in those 9 victories. The Cardinals 9 of last 13 home games have totaled at least 9 runs and more of the same expected here. 10* OVER 8.5 in St Louis Cardinals

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 or 8 in Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:40 ET - This total has dropped and we have solid value on the over. Yes, Steele has great numbers on the season but he actually got hit at a .286 clip last month and a .287 clip the month before that. Hitter friendly weather for this one at Wrigley Field even though the southerly wind will be rather light. Pirates can score some runs here and they will need it because Keller has a 5.35 ERA since the All Star break and has been hit at a .291 clip since then. He also has been great at home but has a 5.15 ERA on the road this season. Cubs rolled 14-1 yesterday and each of their last 7 games have totaled at least 8 runs and that is the current number on this total. Pirates actually had been playing decent on the road and averaged scoring 5 runs per game during this solid 6-3 stretch before getting rocked yesterday so they will bounce back here but Cubs are going to continue mashing the ball. 10* OVER 7.5 or 8 in Chicago Cubs 

Rotation #224245: Champions League | Group Stage: Wednesday 10* OVER 3.5 +100 in Bayern Munich vs Manchester United @ 3 ET - Bayern Munich now has Harry Kane and the former Tottenham man facing Man United adds a little extra intrigue to this one. The thing is Bayern Munich has been fantastic early this season in Bundesliga action and I look for that to carry over here as Man U is having majors issues defensively and missing some players. This Man United club still has some attacking firepower though too and they should enjoy scoring success here but their struggles in the goals-conceded department will continue against this Bundesliga powerhouse. Bayern Munich has scored 2.7 goals last 4 matches but allowed 7 goals last 5 matches across all competitions. Man United has allowed 10 goals in last 4 matches and their leaky backline is a major concern here but, again, they have some striking prowess at front and the hosts in this one certainly have a knack for conceding goals when facing solid competition. This one should turn into an entertaining, high-scoring affair. 10* OVER 3.5 +100 in Bayern Munich

Rotation #224233: Champions League | Group Stage: Wednesday 10* OVER 3 +120 in Real Madrid vs Union Berlin @ 12:45 ET - The fact you are seeing over 3 on this one at plus money is no accident. In my opinion this is encouragement from the books to lay that big price on the other side of this one, the under, because some of the sharper books are thinking this one gets to 4 or more goals. I am right there with them on that theory and we have great line value here when you consider getting to 3 goals would still be a push but we have that solid shot at nice plus money with 4 or more goals. Note that Real Madrid has scored 10 goals in last 5 matches but also allowed 9 goals in last 7 matches. Union Berlin has seen 7 of last 8 matches total at least 3 goals and those 7 matches averaged 4.6 goals apiece and there certainly is nothing average about that. Look for another wild one here. 10* OVER 3 +120 in Real Madrid 

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -105 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - Both pitchers off strong starts against the respective lineups they most recently faced. The Phillies proved last night they can play the home run game too and truly they are a lineup loaded with home run power. That said, they are getting 1.5 runs here at a fantastic price and it is too good to pass up when you consider the pitching of Christopher Sanchez as well. Yes, Spencer Strider is off a a great start versus Philly but he allowed 10 earned runs in 9 innings in his two starts prior to that so he could relapse here. He has had another huge season but, unlike Sanchez, he is not flying under the radar. The thing is, because Sanchez does not have a good record and missed some of this season, he is very undervalued. Not only off solid outings of late, he also has a minuscule 1.29 ERA in his 4 road starts this season. On the road here, here and the homer-happy Phillies will keep this one interesting and might even get another big win tonight. If they lose look for it to be decided by just 1 run. A lot of value here with this run line. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:05 ET - Jose Urena piled up some strikeouts in his last start but also allowed 3 homers and he is 0-6 with an 8.48 ERA this season. As for Jackson Rutledge, he just got rocked in his MLB debut and he struggled some at the AAA level of the minors so this was not a huge surprise. These are two of the worst bullpens in baseball too. The White Sox won 6 to 1 here in DC yesterday but, prior to this, 10 of last 13 Nationals home games have totaled at least 10 runs. As for Chicago, they have scored 6 runs in 4 of last 6 road games. Also, prior to the 6-1 win yesterday the White Sox had allowed 8 runs per game last 6 games overall. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington

Rotation #224225: Champions League, Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 4 in Manchester City vs Crvena Zvezda @ 3 ET - Crvena Zvezda is also referred to as Red Star Belgrade and this club from Serbia is in deep trouble here as you can tell from the goal line of -3 goals in favor of Manchester City in this one. I look for City to be relentless here but Crvena Zvezda should be able to find the back of the net once and make this a 4-1 type final the way I see it. Crvena Zvezda is off a 2-1 loss to Cukaricki in Serbia League action while City just hammered West Ham United 3-1 over the weekend. For Manchester City, this followed a 5-1 win over Fulham and City has now scored an average of 3.3 goals per match last 3 matches. City is defending their Champions League crown now and I look for them to right away make a statement here in the opening match. Crvena Zvezda has allowed 2 goals per match last 3 matches in league action and they take a major step up in level of competition here so don't be surprised if they allow 4 goals in this one. Crvena Zvezda has been scoring goals all season long in their league and, though they will have major defensive shortcomings exposed in this match, they are capable of netting a goal and that will help push this one over the total. 10* OVER 4 in Manchester City

Rotation #224201: Champions League, Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in AC Milan vs Newcastle United @ 12:45 ET - Newcastle is off a 1-0 win versus Brentford but anyone who watched the match knows there should have been a lot more scoring. Also, this Newcastle backline has had some inconsistencies this season and I am sure AC Milan will take advantage here after they just got hammered 5-1 by Inter Milan and they can not wait to get back on the pitch and make amends for that. AC Milan has seen their last 5 matches average 4.4 goals apiece. Newcastle certainly has some striking power and will look to take advantage of an AC Milan backline that has played a role in conceding 1.8 goals per match last 5 matches. Newcastle has seen their last 10 matches average 3.2 goals per match and I expect more of the same here. Prior to the 1-0 win over the Bees, Newcastle had seen 6 of last 9 matches total at least 3 goals and AC Milan has had 4 of last 5 matches total at least 3 goals. This one will too. 10* OVER 2.5 in AC Milan

NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns @ 8:15 ET - This total has been adjusted down to 38 and is just too low in my opinion. The Steelers got dominated last week but that was a solid 49ers defense they faced. Now they catch the Browns off a dominating divisional win. Yes, the Cleveland defense looked great last week but did you see the Bengals offense again yesterday at home against the Ravens? This Cincinnati team has issues on offense and so I expect the Steelers to do much better on offense at home against a Browns defense that is solid but a bit over-rated already early this season. Pittsburgh did move the ball last week against that strong 49ers team but they just couldn't get much going down the field. They will find more openings here against a Browns team that has given up at least 22 points in 21 of 27 road games (including post-season) under Stefanski. That includes an average of 32 points in 4 road games at Pittsburgh. The Browns defense will be tested here but part of the reason I faded the Steelers last week (and won with SF) is because I do not trust this Pittsburgh defense. Sure enough they gave up nearly 400 yards and the damage might have been worse were it not such a blowout in which the Niners were able to stop pushing much on offense. I look for Cleveland to move the ball well here too just like SF did and with this being more of a back and forth game, the Browns will not back down and with having such a bad history here in regular season games, I know Cleveland will keep pushing hard for the win. Game could go either way late in terms of the SU winner but, in terms of the total, this should get well into the 40s in a back and forth battle with good weather in PA for this one too. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh 

MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +100 @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 ET - This one is all about the line value. The Braves took 3 of 4 from the Phillies in Philly and have the best record in baseball this season. However, Philadelphia out for revenge here and they are the defending NL Champions and they have a decided pitching edge here. The fact is the Braves, other than that series win at Philly, have lost 7 of their other 10 recent games as they just got swept at Miami. Atlanta is not exactly on fire at the moment and the Marlins were not just squeaking by in those games. The Marlins hammered them to the tune of a 36 to 13 aggregate score. To say the last, the Braves bullpen is not exactly in great shape right now and they send Kyle Wright to the mound so that might need plenty of pen in this one. Wright has struggled overall in his limited action this season and that includes getting pounded by the Phillies in his most recent start. Zack Wheeler starts for the Phillies here and he also struggled against the Braves in a recent outing but bad starts have been rare for him! Wheeler is having a solid season. Not stellar like last season but Wheeler has been solid and he dominated the Braves when he faced them here in Atlanta earlier this season. He and the Phillies are out for revenge here and they are catching the slumping Braves at the right time to get revenge. Take advantage of the low price. 10* PHILADELPHIA +100

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Carolina Panthers + vs New Orleans Saints @ 7:15 ET - Dennis Allen is head coach of the Saints. With the win he got last week, his NFL career head coaching record is 14-38. That is not a mistype. 14-38 is his career record. I know the Saints could win this division this season but the NFC South is truly a bit of an up for grabs type of division these days so that is not saying much. I personally think even the Panthers could ultimately challenge. Frank Reich was offensive coordinator of the Eagles when they beat the mighty Patriots in Feb of 2018. He then went to be head coach of the Colts and had a 40-33 record with them including taking them to the playoffs twice. His record is not fantastic but Reich has a leg up on Allen when it comes to head coaching edge in this match-up the way I see it. I know the Saints have the more established QB now and the Panthers were done in by turnovers last week but they will be better here at home in week 2. Also, they actually outgained the Falcons by 60 yards in that week 1 loss. That is the same Atlanta team that beat GB yesterday and though that win was by just as single point, the Falcons actually outgained the Packers by 200 yards and actually only punted ONCE the entire game! That is domination and the points is that the way the Panthers defense played in week one looks even more impressive now as the Falcons are 2-0 and flying high on offense. The offense of Carolina will be better this week and Reich's background is offense. So the key here is this is a solid defense that can contain the Saints offense. New Orleans benefitted from turnovers in their week 1 win so this is another point of value here in evaluating week 2 match-ups. Now with this line at a solid +3 and you might even find some 3.5 starting to show up, this is an excellent home dog spot. The Panthers were 4-0 ATS in home games last season when coming off a road loss in their prior game. They respond at home here and I expect an outright upset win but will grab the points just in case. 10* CAROLINA +

Rotation #200037: English Premier League: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -105 in Nottingham Forest vs Burnley @ 2:45 ET - Traditionally this type of system has worked well. These clubs met in non-league action, in the English Carabao Cup, just a few weeks ago and Burnley won 1 to 0. The set up here is now you have them meeting in League action and Nottingham Forest is hosting and they are the revenging club. This will result in a match that plays out in much different fashion than the 1-0 Cup battle these clubs just had. Note that Burnley has allowed at least 3 goals in EACH of their first 3 matches this EPL season! As for Nottingham Forest, they are off a 1-0 surprising win over Chelsea but each of their 3 matches in League action prior to this saw them both score and concede! All 3 matches totaled at least 3 goals and this one will too! Burnley is off to a rough start in the league this season but views this as a winnable match based on the English Carabao Cup success as well as the fact Nottingham Forest is certainly no powerhouse! That said, I do look for Burnley to get on the board here but also expect this to turn into a back and forth battle as Forest has been playing with confidence as it at home. They have already scored well in league action including 5 goals last 3 matches. 10* OVER 2.5 -105 in Nottingham Forest

Rotation #206865: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -105 in CFR Cluj vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 2:30 ET - This is a great spot for an over as CFR Cluj is rolling and riding high after a 4-1 road win and they have been one of the strongest clubs in the league again this season. They enter this match averaging 2.4 goals per match this season and they have the highest scoring average in the league. Petrolul Ploiesti is off a 2-2 draw with Otelul Galati and, if they gave up 2 goals to Galati, they are really in trouble here defensively! The fact is CFR Cluj is favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line for a reason here and I am anticipating a 3-1 type match here and a rather easy over. The matches for Petrolul Ploiesti have averaged 3 goals apiece. CFR Cluj is allowing an average of 1 goal per match this season so asking for 3 goals here is really not asking for too much. The last time these clubs met it was a 5-2 CFR Cluj win! They do have injury to a key player who is a right-back player so his defense is important and that hurts the hosts defensively here. 10* OVER 2.5 -105 in CFR Cluj

Rotation #206861: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -130 in Poli Iasi vs FC Botosani @ 11:30 AM ET - The hosts are off a win and so confidence is up but Poli Iasi has not had a draw in any of their 7 matches this season. I am looking for a 2-1 final because I do look for each club to score and the odds favor that there is no draw here. Poli Iasi matches have averaged 3 goals apiece and they will score again here after netting 2 on the road at Universitatea Cluj. At the same time, this is a newly promoted club allowing an average of about 2 goals per match this season. FC Botosani is off a 2-2 draw and is at the bottom of the league table, just below Poli Iasi, so this is an important match for the visitors. They are one of only two clubs, Otelul Galati is the other, that do not have a win yet this season as they are 0-4-4. I don't foresee a draw here however and I do expect FC Botosani to again struggle to stop opponents from scoring. They are allowing an average of 1.5 goals per match this season. This one has 2-1 written all over it as the hosts come in confident but the visitors really needed the off week last weekend and they come in rejuvenated and ready to put up a fight here. 10* OVER 2 -130 in Poli Iasi

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New England Patriots + vs Miami Dolphins @ 8:20 ET - The dominant number as of early game day morning is 2.5 but there is a little bit of 3 out there. Either way I am looking for an outright win here for the home team but it is nice any time you have a line that sets up where a 2 point loss is still a win as well and that is the case here. First off, I like the home dog factor here. Secondly, I like the fact the Patriots fell short against the Eagles despite outgaining them last week. Did you see how Philly than ran all over the Vikings Thursday? Give this Patriots defense some credit for holding Philly in check last week! As for the Dolphins, they are off a shootout win and I love fading teams off high-scoring wins like that. The fact Miami snuck away with the victory over the Chargers even though they gave up a pile of points and big yardage set this one up well. The Dolphins may not fully realize how much they need to focus on the defensive side of the field for this one. They come in 1-0 but off an effort in which they allowed 34 points plus huge yardage on the ground. After playing in LA last week the Dolphins now go coast to coast for this one and the Pats threw for over 300 yards last week. I know Miami piled up yardage too but their D is a weakness. I trust NE to get some stops here and the Pats offense will be able to move the ball all game long. They threw well against Philly plus the Dolphins proved last week they are susceptible on the ground so the Patriots should enjoy plenty of success here on offense and I expect the defense to hold up. 10* NEW ENGLAND + points

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this as of early gameday morning is 8.5 and this an over-reaction to the Cowboys 40-0 win last week and the Jets losing Aaron Rodgers to season-ending injury. Keep in mind, Dallas actually only won the yardage battle by 94 yards last week. That does not equate to a 40-point beatdown of course. That is not much of a yardage edge. The Jets have a very strong defense that can also create havoc and turnovers as the Cowboys did last week. In fact, the Jets proved that with their upset of Buffalo in OT Monday night. I know this is a short week for the Jets but it is still early in the season and you are still talking about fresh bodies that are in much less banged up than as the season goes on. Later in the season, short rest is more of a factor. The Cowboys were originally around a FG favorite in this game. Now they are favored by more than a TD. Take advantage of the line value here. The Cowboys are actually 0-4 ATS the last 4 times they are at home and coming off a game in which they scored 40 or more points! Look for Dallas, known to stumble at home in spots like this, to come in overconfident after last week's big road win over a division rival. Conversely, the Jets are well aware of the blowout win that the Cowboys just delivered in their own stadium (the stadium they share with the Giants) and they will be geared up and well prepared for the upset win here. Their defense will really test Prescott in this one just like they did against the Bills Allen. They may not get the outright upset but I expect this game to be decided by a one score margin. 10* NEW YORK JETS + points

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 2:15 ET - The Phillies recently faced Dakota Hudson and gave him trouble. A lot of teams have given him trouble of late. Hudson has allowed 5 or more earned runs now in 3 of his last 4 starts. In that 4 start stretch he has walked 13 and struck out 5. Like Hudson, Taijuan Walker has struggled a bit lately. However, unlike Hudson, Walker has much better BB/SO numbers recently! In his last 4 starts Walker has 10 walks and 22 strikeouts. You can see that Walker, despite giving up more earned runs that usual, has actually been pitching better of late in comparison with Hudson. Digging beyond the expected starting pitchers here (as usual my play is action), the Phillies are 14 games over .500 this season while St Louis is 18 games under .500 on the season. St Louis actually has been worse at home than on the road this season plus the Cards are 41-53 against teams with a winning record this season. Philly is 38-21 against teams with a losing record this season. The Cardinals, after getting drilled again 6-1 yesterday, have lost all 5 games with the Phillies this season and you have to go back to the 2017 season for the last time they won the season series with them. With a reasonable money line on the better team that is a club that is also working hard to clinch a ticket to the post-season again, I will not hesitate to lay the price on the defending NL Champs here again just like yesterday! 10* PHILADELPHIA -125

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens + @ Cincinnati Bengals @ 1 ET - As of early Sunday morning there is still some 3.5 available on this one and even if TE Andrews does not play for Baltimore I do expect them to get the cover in this match-up. Looking for an outright win but we will grab the points just in case. I am aware of RB Dobbins now out for the year for Baltimore. However, have you seen the different running backs the Eagles are using this year and how they ran all over Minnesota Thursday night. The point is that if a team has the right play-calling, a solid offensive line, and is well-coached they get their ground game going no matter who the running backs are. Of course Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is also an ultra-dangerous threat with his legs too and keeps defenses honest. He was not available when Ravens lost at Cincinnati in the post-season last year. The fact is, however, the Ravens significantly outgained the Bengals in their 3 match-ups last season even though the majority of those stats were without starting QB Jackson which, unlike RB, is absolutely an extremely critical position. You see where I am going with this...we are getting even more line value here because of the RB injury for the Ravens. This is a major revenge game for Baltimore and they used last week's blowout win over the Texans as a tune-up for this game. As for Cincinnati, they were in the process of a blowout loss last week at Cleveland. You might think that makes this a great spot for the Bengals but actually they have failed to cover 7 straight times when in the following situation: at home and favored by less than a TD and coming off an ATS loss by a double digit margin. That makes this a play against spot for Cincinnati and I look for this play-against angle to reach 8 WINNERS IN A ROW as this spot is further strengthened by the revenge aspect for the Ravens and the fact this is a division rival too. 10* BALTIMORE +3.5 

Rotation #206869: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -150 in Otelul Galati vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 12:15 ET - This match is in Galati.  Could Rapid be flat after their huge win in Bucuresti by a 4-0 count over city rivals Dinamo? I do believe that to be the case and this could allow Otelul to get the jump in this one. However, Rapid is the favorite for a reason and that is why I am anticipating at least a 2-1 final here. Note that Galati has been king of the draws this season but their scoring is trending upward also and their last two matches have each ended as 2-2 draws. As for Rapid, their last 7 matches have featured 6 totaling at least 3 goals and these 7 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Also, their last 6 road matches have all totaled at least 3 goals and so we are testing a 6-0 trend here and those 6 matches have averaged 5.5 goals apiece! 10* OVER 2 -150 in Otelul Galati

Rotation #200033: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Everton vs Arsenal @ 11:30 AM ET - Well aware of Everton's struggles in the goal-scoring department this season but do you think the odds makers are unaware? Of course they are aware and yet they set this total at a 3 for a reason! That said, and now that we are seeing some 2.5 out there as well, I love latching onto the value in this one! Note that Everton always seems to give Arsenal some trouble when they are hosting them and they do catch them off the big win over Manchester United. That said, I do expect Everton to find the back of the net at least once but, of course, Arsenal is the stronger overall club and is favored here for a reason. That is why I am looking for at least a 2-1 final but expecting much more. Note that 3 of Everton's last 4 matches, including one in English Carabao Cup action, have totaled at least 3 goals and 2 of those 3 totaled 4 goals! As for Arsenal, 3 of their last 4 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and their last 2 have totaled 4 goals and all these matches were in EPL action! Arsenal has scored 11 goals in last 4 matches with Everton but the latter have totaled 3 goals in the last two matches as a host. This game will play out with much more attacking and scoring opportunities than many are expecting. That said, take advantage of the line value here! 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Everton

Rotation #206877: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -145 in Hermannstadt vs Voluntari @ 10 AM ET - Getting an over 2, even at extra juice, is well worth it here. 2 goals is, of course, a key number in soccer totals and now take a look at these two clubs. Hermannstadt is at home and off 3 straight draws. The hosts are very hungry for a victory and the draws were 2-2, 2-2 and 1-1. An average of 3.3 goals per match and more of the same here. Voluntari has had 11 straight matches total at least 2 goals and their last 5 have totaled 3 or more so we are testing a 5-0 trend here by going with the over in this one. Note that those 11 matches averaged 4 goals apiece and these past 5 matches have averaged 4.2 goals apiece. This is an excellent value here. The last 3 meetings between these clubs have also all totaled 2 or more goals and averaged 2.7 goals apiece. 10* OVER 2 -145 in Hermanndstadt

Rotation #200029: English Premier League: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Bournemouth vs Chelsea @ 9 AM ET - Bournemouth trying to be more aggressive on the attack this season and they should be able to get one past Chelsea here. However, the visitors are desperate to get going again as they have disappointed early this season despite all their firepower. Chelsea will be very aggressive on the attack here and they have scored at least 2 goals in each of last 4 meetings with Bournemouth. Those matches have seen 3 of the 4 total at least 3 goals and more of the same expected here. Chelsea is off a 1-0 loss but had won 2 straight and scored 5 goals in their two prior matches including one in English Carabao Cup action. 3 of Bournemouth's last 4 matches, including one in English Carabao Cup action, have totaled at least 4 goals and that is what I am expecting here as well. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Bournemouth

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Wyoming Cowboys + @ Texas Longhorns @ 8 ET - The Cowboys are catching the Longhorns at the right time to hang tough in this game. There is a lot of value here with Wyoming currently catching as much as 30 points as of early gameday morning. This Cowboys defense returned virtually everyone from last season's team and they are very solid on that side of the ball. Texas is off the huge win in upset fashion at Alabama last week and they have their Big 12 opener next week. Not only that, it is nearby Baylor who they are facing. The Longhorns and Bears do not get along at all. They are rivals and do not like each other so this is absolutely a sandwich spot for Texas. The Horns off the upset of Crimson Tide and opening their Big 12 portion of the season next week. Of course I am not saying the Longhorns lose this game but I just can not see them winning by more than 2 or 3 touchdowns. Wyoming has confidence from the OT win versus Texas Tech. Remember the Red Raiders beat this UT team last year! Again, I am not saying Wyoming is as good as is Texas Tech and the Red Raiders are as good as Texas! Not at all! I am just saying that you can see the Cowboys will not be intimidated here and they have a veteran defense and they have the added confidence of a 2-0 start. I think UT has been very benefited by the turnover margin early this season and this is the type of game where some of those bounces finally do not go their way. The Cowboys will hang around in this one and stay inside the inflated number. 10* WYOMING + points

MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ 7:15 ET - The Phillies recently faced Miles Mikolas and gave him trouble. A lot of teams have given him trouble of late. Mikolas has allowed 27 earned runs in 35 innings over his last 6 starts. He has allowed 10 homers in his last 7 starts. Like Mikolas, Ranger Suarez has a sub-par W-L record this season. However, unlike Mikolas, Suarez has actually been pitching better of late. Suarez has allowed an average of 2 earned over his last 5 starts and those starts have seen him average 6 innings per start. The Phillies southpaw is flying under the radar a bit right now yet he actually has been quite solid including 28 strikeouts over his last 22 innings. The Phillies are 13 games over .500 this season while St Louis is 17 games under .500 on the season. St Louis actually has been worse at home than on the road this season plus the Cards are 41-52 against teams with a winning record this season. Philly is 37-21 against teams with a losing record this season. St Louis is 38-60 in night games this season. The Cardinals have lost all 4 games with the Phillies this season and you have to go back to the 2017 season for the last time they won the season series with them. 10* PHILADELPHIA -110

CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - This line available as high as a 10 as of overnight hours heading into Saturday. Love this spot for a road dog cover. Yes, the Redblacks are on a losing streak but they have been very competitive and will not back down from the Lions here. Yes, BC is a strong team and at home with rest but if you look at their stats in recent weeks they have not been impressive. The Lions have shown some issues, particularly on defense, and I expect this scrappy Ottawa bunch to hang around in this one. The Redblacks have played 12 games this season and, though they have lost 6 straight and 9 of 12, look at home competitive they have been. Only two of their games have been losses by more than 10 points and those featured margins of defeat of just 11 and 13 points. Take out a 19 point win that Ottawa had and look at the average margin of their other 11 games (including all 9 losses) and you will come to an average of 5.8 ppg. Again, this line is just too much in a game likely to be decided by a TD or less. BC was dominating earlier this season but they are just 2-3 SU last 5 games and one of those wins was by a single digit margin. This one goes to the wire! 10* OTTAWA (+) points

CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Tulane Green Wave @ 4 ET - I am expecting starting QB Michael Pratt to go in this one even though he is a game time decision. In my opinion that is keep this total - currently as low as 48.5 - lower than it should be as of early game day morning. Pratt is expected to suit up here and go through warm-ups and has been increasing practice throughout the week. The feeling here is they did not want to risk him last week in a tough match-up against SEC foe Mississippi. Kai Horton got the start in that game and I am 100% comfortable if he goes again here. That is because Southern Miss has a defense that pales in comparison to an SEC defense! The Green Wave will move the ball well here as they seek revenge for last season's loss to the Golden Eagles which also means Tulane will not take their foot off the gas in this one. Southern Miss did allow 66 points last week. I do expect the Eagles to struggle again here on that side of the ball but they will score better at home as well. Southern Miss has averaged scoring 32.6 ppg last 8 home games. The Green Wave are coming off a huge season and are very talented offensively and scored 37 in Week 1 before struggling against Ole Miss last week - a strong SEC team. Both teams has played 2 games so far this season and all 4 of these games have totaled at least 54 points and this one will as well. Tulane averaged 36 ppg last season and they will likely repeat that average again this year. A lot of value with the low posted total here. 10* OVER the total in Southern Miss

Rotation #206881: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -105 in Universitatea Craiova vs Sepsi @ 2:30 ET - 3 of last 4 Universitatea Craiova matches have totaled at least 3 goals and these 4 matches have averaged 3.3 goals apiece. Sepsi is off a 1-0 win but this was preceded by 3 straight matches - across all competitions - in which they both scored and conceded a goal. Those 3 matches averaged 3.7 goals apiece and we will see more of the same here. There is a reason this one is priced at 2.5 goals even though Universitatea Craiova is off a shutout loss and Sepsi is off a shutout win. 10* OVER 2.5 in Universitatea Craiova

Rotation #200025: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 or 3 in Newcastle United vs Brentford Bees @ 12:30 ET - This is a great situation for expecting plenty of goals! Newcastle is fired up and at home where they tend to score very well. Brentford is a tough foe that score well anywhere and will not be intimidated in this one and will not back down. Newcastle began this season with a 5-1 drubbing of Aston Villa but have since lost 3 straight. While a 1-0 loss to Man City was understandable, a 2-1 loss to 10-man Liverpool was not. Then Newcastle was unable to shake off that unimaginable loss and got hammered 3-1 by Brighton & Hove in their next match. That is why, after a much-needed week off as well, Newcastle will be at their best here. However, Brentford has scored an average of 2 goals in their 4 league matches this season and we'll see goals here. The last 4 meetings between these clubs have averaged 4 goals apiece. I expect the same here given the situation here and the hunger of the hosts and the solid attacking capabilities of the visitors in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in Newcastle United 

CFB Saturday 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) @ Illinois Illini @ Noon ET - This line is holding at 14 as of early game day morning. Remember 2 weeks ago when Penn State punched it in late (just seconds left on the clock) for a "meaningless" TD against West Virginia that gave them a 23 point win in a game in which they were favored by 20 points? That is the kind of stuff to keep in mind when you are contemplating whether or not you are comfortable laying big points with a team. This Nittany Lions team is off to a hot start and yes I know they played an outclassed Delaware team last week but the fact is PSU is rolling with confidence on both sides of the ball right now. This is a much different situation than the last time they faced Illinois and this Illini defense is also much weaker than that one. That match-up I am referring to was only 2 years ago in 2021 but the Nittany Lions entered that game off their first loss of the season. They were demoralized and flat after their 5-0 start to the season came crashing to a halt against Iowa. Penn State went on to lose to Illinois in a crazy OT game of defensive prowess that took forever to finish in a multi-OT slugfest. Things are much different this time around and the Illini do not look nearly as strong for this rematch. Their defense is not as strong and Illinois is 0-2 ATS because they barely got by a MAC team in Week 1 and then got hammered by Kansas last week. Certainly Toledo is a respectable opponent and the Jayhawks are much more respectable than they used to be. However, now the Illini face a revenge-minded and stacked Penn State team that will not hesitate to pile up points even with a big late lead. I expect this one to possibly be tight early for a bit but eventually the much stronger road team pulls away for a win by at least a 3 TD margin the way I see it. There is also a perfect trend here that has gone undefeated the last 14 times involving Penn State. That is that when the Nittany Lions are entering a match-up against a conference foe and PSU is coming off B2B wins both SU and ATS, they have not failed to cover in any of the last 14. There is one push in the bunch and we could see a push here if this one lands on 14 but I am looking for another win by 20+ for this road team! 10* PENN STATE (-)

Rotation #200021: English Premier League: Saturday 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in West Ham United vs Manchester City @ 10 AM ET - Both clubs are off to strong starts this season and have a lot of attacking confidence. Even though Manchester City is without Kevin De Bruyne and Jack Grealish right now, they still have plenty of attacking talent including Erling Haaland of course. West Ham is scoring an average of 2.3 goals per match this season in EPL action while Manchester City is scoring an average of 2.8 goals per match this season in league action. Each of the last 3 West Ham United matches have totaled at least 3 goals. As for Manchester City, 3 of last 4 EPL matches have totaled at least 3 goals and that includes a huge 5-1 win in their most recent match in league action. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and Manchester City has scored at least 2 goals in all 4 of those. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here but expecting much more as City will be tough to stop but their attacking style will also make West Ham dangerous on the counter-attack. 10* OVER 2.5 or 3 in West Ham United

CFL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 46.5 in Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Edmonton Elks @ 9:30 ET - Good weather here and I love the fact that Edmonton has been winning some games and their confidence is up. Saskatchewan just got rocked 51 to 6 at Winnipeg. I am sure the Roughriders will bring a much better effort here and score plenty of points but I certainly can not trust their defense. The way the Elks are going they will move the ball here. Edmonton has scored an average of 28 points in their last 5 games! As for the Riders, they have averaged 31 points in their last 4 home games. This total is a bargain in the mid-40s with good weather expected here also. 10* OVER 46.5 in Saskatchewan

MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET - Greinke has been working out of the bullpen recently for the Royals as well and honestly whether he starts here or is a bulk reliever out of the bullpen or whatever the case may be, I look for the Royals league-worst bullpen to get pounded here. KC has a very bad bullpen and the Astros will be scoring runs early and often in this one. The key for the Royals though is they have been hitting better overall for quite a stretch long-term now plus they do tend to hit better when at home. So when you factor that in, we should both teams scoring well in this one. I am not too concerned with the Astros starter here but will mention that it is expected to be Cristian Javier. Not only does he have a 5.51 ERA on the road this season, he has a 5.58 ERA overall since the all star break. I am expecting at least a dozen runs in this one given all of the above and certainly at least getting to double digits should not be a problem. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City

CFB Friday 10* Top Play UTSA Roadrunners (-) vs Army Black Knights @ 7 ET - Maybe we will see -7 on this but I want to get this play written up and out to all my customers and the current number is 7.5 and 8 as of Friday morning. Army has some impressive stats already but they played Delaware State - an FCS school - and UL Monroe. Note that the latter (the Warhawks) have won only 8 games the past 3 seasons combined! The Black Knights are a solid scrappy team and can be a tough underdog. But they gave up a pile of points to the Roadrunners last season. I know that Army also scored well in that one but I look for the Runners to be much tougher defensively at home in the rematch. I know UTSA has not been overly impressive early this season but they faced a couple of in-state foes that really had it out for them. Texas State is improved - already upset Baylor - and Houston is a tough in-state foe. In terms of strength of schedule, it is really night and day between these two teams so far this season. Adding to the value here is that UTSA is fully aware that they will NOT have another home game until mid-October! So this is it until a month from now and they will make this one count and they will be relentless. Note that this line was double digits and now has moved down to almost a 7. I love spots like this where the betting markets have adjusted a line substantially. More often than not the move is not warranted. I get it that Army can be a tough dog but this Runners team is solid and has been great under the current regime and won about 75% of its games over 4+ seasons! In terms of covering the spread here, Army's last 8 losses in true road games have seen 6 come by a double digit margin. That is a 75% rate of double digit losses in road defeats in recent seasons that dates back to the 2020 season. More of the same here. 10* UTSA (-)

Rotation #206873: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs FCU 1948 Craiova @ 2:30 ET - Dinamo is off a 4-0 loss and FCU 1948 Craiova is off a 4-0 win. Back at home, Dinamo will score better here but their defensive play and netminding continues to struggle and they will not be able to stop FCU 1948 Craiova in this one. The goals have really been flying in  FCU 1948 Craiova. No club in the league has scored more (18) OR conceded more (18) than this club. Indeed the average goals scored in FCU 1948 Craiova matches this season is 4.5 and that is a crazy number. Each of their last 4 matches have totaled at least 4 goals! As for Dinamo, 2 of their last 3 matches have totaled at least 4 goals. Also, Dinamo had averaged scoring 1.5 goals and scored in all 4 matches in a 4-match stretch preceding that 4-0 loss in their most recent match. They will bounce back here but they will struggle to slow down the current goal-scoring matching that is FCU 1948 Craiova. 10* OVER 2.5 in Dinamo Bucuresti

Rotation #206857: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -140 in UTA vs Universitatea Cluj @ 11:30 AM ET - UTA gets their manager back on the sidelines for this after he suffered a heart attack 3 weeks ago. The players will go all out for him here I am sure. At the same time, the visitors (Universitatea Cluj) are very hungry for a win and will be pushing hard here. They also recently welcomed back their manager as he had left the team after last season due to health concerns and needing some time away. He could not stay away however and wanted to get back to working with his club. Both teams were happy for the week off last week and will come out fresh and pushing hard for the full 3 points in the table here. UTA has allowed 1.5 goals per match and  Universitatea Cluj has allowed 2 goals per match this season and I am expecting at least a 2-1 final here. UTA has only one draw in their 7 matches this season and they will not settle for one here either. 10* OVER 2 -140 in UTA

NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Minnesota Vikings + points @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 8:15 ET - Sure I would rather have 7+ points in this game rather than the current number of 6 or 6.5 as of early gameday but I am not going to let the line movement sway my original thoughts on this one. Those are summarized in the fact that this is a tough spot for the Eagles to win, let alone win big! Note that the Eagles were outplayed last week at New England. We had Philly and though they were up 16-0 at one point early on they really were fortunate and we were fortunate to get the win and cover there as they hung on for dear life late. Conversely the Vikings were done in by 3 turnovers in the home loss to Tampa Bay last week. Philly off a fortunate win and not realizing how badly they played because they still won. Vikings off an unfortunate loss and can't wait to get back on the field. That said, I love having the points in this match-up as Minnesota goes for revenge and they are angry too. They lost here last season but went 13-3 in the rest of their regular season games last season! Last week, the Eagles barely beat a Patriots team that is a mediocre .500 team the last three YEARS combined! In terms of technical angles, in the first quarter (four games) of a season the Eagles have lost 12 of 13 ATS when they are favored against a team that has a losing record and is off an ATS loss. Also, in early season (first quarter) games in the season like this, Philly has lost 14 of 18 ATS when facing a team with revenge. The key is the situation here and how these teams TRULY played last week and the fact we get about 6 points to work with here as well. However, I will also mention an interesting stat that the Eagles have gone 0-7 ATS when they have a Monday Night game on deck. Up next for Philly is a Monday night affair at Tampa Bay and I think the Eagles will think their overall clout and home field will be enough here versus the Vikings but this Philly team has issues on both sides of the ball right now. Minnesota got embarrassed here in an early season primetime game last season and they make up for that here in a big way as the Vikings might even pull off the shocker upset but I see at least a cover here. That said, I expect the play against trend involving the Eagles here makes it 8 IN A ROW in this one! 10* MINNESOTA + points

CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Memphis Tigers -14 vs Navy Midshipmen @ 7:30 ET - Longtime followers know I am not big on laying big points in any sport. However, on occasion - when the situation is right - I will not hesitate to step in and lay the lumber. This is one of those rare cases. The Midshipmen are only as good as their QB. It has been that way for a long time and it is not changing anytime soon because they are so dependent on him with the type of offense they play. That said, scoring 24 points on Wagner in game they were favored by 42 points is not a good sign. Remember this was on the heels of a season opening shellacking at the hands of Notre Dame. Navy scored only 3 points in that game. No the Tigers are not the Fighting Irish. However, the Midshipmen have missed the mark ATS by at least 18 points in each of their first two games. That said, I have no hesitation here in rolling with a Memphis team that is so strong offensively that they can pile up big points here and Navy will not be able to keep up. Yes the Tigers faced overmatched Bethune-Cookman and Arkansas State so far but still they have looked solid on both sides of the ball. The way Memphis can score points very quickly and very well and the fact the D looked good against a Red Wolves team that averaged 25 points per game on offense in each of the first two seasons under head coach Butch Jones, don't be surprised if the Tigers roll huge here at home. Remember that big win last week was at Arkansas State and now they are at home here for this visit from Navy. 10* MEMPHIS -14

Rotation #212401: Bulgaria Parva Liga: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -140 in Levski Sofia vs Pirin Blagoevgrad @ 1:30 ET - Levski Sofia is at home and favored by 2 goals on the goal line for good reason. I am banking on at least a 2-1 final here but 3-0 or even 3-1 or 4-1 is just as likely. The hosts will be relentless here as they are the vastly superior club and scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. The reason they will be aggressive here is because in their last two league meetings with Pirin Blagoevgrad they won one only 1-0 and the other was a 1-1 draw. If you look each of the other 6 meetings across all competitions between these clubs in recent years, all 6 totaled at least 3 goals! Levski Sofia scored an average 2.7 goals per match and won all 6 of those matches. After what happened last season in their meetings in the regular season plus the way things have begun this season, there is every reason to expect a home blowout here and that means this one gets to 3 or more goals. 10* OVER 2.5 -140 in Levski Sofia

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 1:10 ET - The first game in this series was 5-5 after 5 innings and they had to go all the way to the 10th inning with no scoring before finally Cincy scored a run and ended up getting the win. That was Tuesday and then yesterday's game was 4-3 after 4 innings but, again a long scoreless lull and no one scored the rest of the way and the Reds won another one-run game. Two of the best bullpens in baseball, right? Actually NO and that is why I really like the over in this early day game Thursday. The Reds are a little better than the Tigers in terms of bullpen ERA but still these two teams are both middle of the pack at best really when it comes to relievers. Derek Law expected to be an opener here for the Reds but Ben Lively likely to get most of the bulk work after returning from covid. Neither guy scares me at all and the Tigers will score well here. The Reds also should pound away. I know Reese Olson has had a couple strong outings but that was against a bad White Sox team and also does not change the fact he has struggled often this season. In fact, from late July to late August, Olson allowed at least 4 earned runs in 5 of 6 starts. He struggles again here the way I see it and both teams score big and we take advantage of the line move from 9 down to an 8.5 on this one. 10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit

MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals @ 12:35 ET - As written in Monday's write-up involving this series, this one relates to a late season strategy that has worked quite well for me through the years. Here you have a match-up featuring two teams whose seasons are over. Yes I know that mathematically each one of these teams is still alive in the wild card race but realistically neither team is. The Nationals are dead last in the NL East and the Pirates are in 4th place in the NL Central and both clubs are looking to build toward next season. When there is no playoff pressure, hitters can really relax at the plate. So here you have a situation of relaxed batting lineups. We also have a Pirates bullpen that ranks only in the middle of the pack this season while the Nationals bullpen is dead last in the National League based on team ERA. That said, we should see runs throughout this one. The Pirates are likely starting Mitch Keller here and he is 2-5 with a 6.09 ERA in his last ten starts as he is really struggling. The Nationals are expected to start Josiah Gray and he is having a rough season and is slumping again of late. His only start this month did not go well and he went 0-3 with an 8.84 ERA in his 5 starts in the month of August. We have a rather low total to work with here (8.5 as of gameday morning) and the Pirates have averaged scoring a respectable 4.5 runs per game last 15 games. Pittsburgh has allowed 6 runs per game in last 8 home games. The Nationals have seen 8 of last 11 games total double digits in runs. I am expecting this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 -105 vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:40 ET - Getting the Phillies at a pick'em price on the run line here is a bargain price. The Braves have taken 2 of 3 so far in this series but both their wins were in extra innings. Strider is the big name pitcher here but he is off a rough outing and has been dealing with an illness. He is over-priced here. He could struggle again just like the prior start and may not be fully recovered from his illness that pushed this start back. Strider is the big name guy so the markets are all over the Braves here. The Phillies, however, continue to fly under the radar compared to the Braves. This Phillies team is a strong team and was in the World Series last year. Sanchez is flying under the radar too because his record is not that impressive. This guy hardly ever gives up much on the mound and Atlanta has no significant experience against him. He is likely to be a pleasant surprise for Philadelphia here as a result. The Braves have coughed up the lead in the bottom of the 9th of both of their wins in this series. There is a lot of value with the +1.5 runs here. The Phillies, at +1.5, would be 8-2 (80%) last 10 games and one of those two losses was in extra innings by two runs. Philadelphia had won 17 of 26 at home before yesterday's extra innings loss and I look for Strider to struggle again while Sanchez surprises. Sanchez has quietly allowed 2 or less earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts. 10* PHILADELPHIA +1.5 -105

Rotation #224141: Welsh Premier League: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 goals -130 in Bala Town vs The New Saints @ 2:45 ET - The New Saints are rolling and at the top of the league and have averaged 3.2 goals scored per match this season. Bala Town is off a 3-0 loss in Scottish League Challenge Cup but this was preceded by scoring at least 1 goal and earning at least a draw in each of their last 3 matches in league action. In the Welsh Cup last season, The New Saints crushed Bala Town 6-0 and so revenge is on the minds of the hosts here. The fact this one is on their home pitch gives them good odds at a competitive affair but they will have to score plenty to keep up with the high-powered attack of the league-leading Saints. That said, look for this one to end 2-2 or 3-2 the way I see it and we should see plenty of goals in this one. 10* OVER 3 goals -130 in Bala Town 

MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 1:10 ET - Keuchel has seen his better years. Yes, he is off a good start but that was preceded by a rough one. Overall, he has struggled with command at times, his strikeouts are down, and he could struggle again here after a rare decent start. I will challenge him to make good B2B starts. As for the Rays Taj Bradley, he is off a start in which he allowed 3 homers and that was at home. In his last two road starts Bradley has walked 9 in 8 and 1/3 innings! He has allowed 12 homers in his last 8 starts and this total is being held at a 9 for a reason. Yesterday's game stayed under the total but the bats come back to life in this early afternoon game Wednesday. Very pleasant weather expected for this one. Rays had won 7 of 9 games and scored an average of 5.3 runs last 10 games prior to yesterday's 3-2 loss. The Twins are 7-4 last 11 games and have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game during this stretch. 10* OVER 9 in Minnesota

Rotation #211601: Premier League of Bosnia and Herzegovina: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals -130 in Zrinjski vs Posusje @ 12:30 ET - This total has dropped some from its opener so we have excellent line value here. Posusje is off 4-0 win but allowed 7 goals in their 4 matches preceding that one. They have scored at least 1 goal in 4 of 5 matches this season. They have had no draws. That said, odds favor at least a 2-1 final here. Zrinjski has also been playing in the Europa League action where they conceded at least 1 goal in all 4 matches and allowed an average of 1.5 goals per match. They did score in 3 of those 4 matches as well. But, in their domestic Premier League action the goals have really been flying with B2B wins by a combined score of 8-4 so an average score of 4-2 and 6 goals per match! 10* OVER 2.5 goals -130

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians @ 9:45 ET - Going to test the 6-0 run here as this total is an 8 or 8.5 so we need 9 runs to be a winner and each of the Giants last 6 games have all totaled at least 9 runs!  San Francisco has scored 6.5 runs per game during this stretch but also conceded 6 runs per game during this stretch of 6 games. The Giants are feeling it right now with 4 straight wins and should hit Quantrill hard here but don't be surprised if Manaea gives up big runs here as well. Cleveland has lost 3 straight but this was on the heels of a 7-5 stretch in which they scored an average of 5 runs per game. They will take advantage of an inconsistent Manaea making his first start in 4 months. His bulk relief has not been great and this is essentially a bullpen game and Alex Wood and Jakob Junis could see bulk relief time as well and they both have had rough patches recently as well. So no matter the starters here I like the over and I will note that Quantrill has been good since his return but he faced a downtrodden Angels team in most recent start. The start previous to that was solid also except he had more walks than strikeouts there. So I am not sold on him just yet as he is working his way back into top form after having not started since early July and having endured a number of rough stretches this season. 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in San Francisco

MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:40 ET - Assad coming off a tough start in which he did not register a single strikeout. He struggled against the Rockies in his lone appearance against them last season and now he makes his first ever start at Coors Field. This is a tough spot for Assad and weather conditions look good for this one in Denver and the ball carries so well here. The Rockies counter with Flexen and he had some good starts (mildly good at least) once he settled in a bit after coming over from Seattle in the summer but now the struggles are quickly resuming. Flexen is having a rough September with both starts, including one at home, being very tough. He has been rocked for much of this season and most of his outings in a Rockies uniform as well and Coors Field is the least pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors. That said, the runs keep piling up here as both starters get rocked plus the Rockies bullpen ranks as one of the worst in the majors. Asking for a dozen or more runs here is not asking too much! 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado

Rotation #225581: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 4 in Spain vs Cyprus @ 2:45 ET - Spain will be playing a number of young players again that want to prove themselves and it was no accident that these guys just hammered Georgia 7 to 1. Spain is loaded with talent and, again, the youth movement with players wanting to show they are ready to take things to the next level insures that plenty of aggression on the attack will again be on display here. Perhaps Cyprus can manage to score 1 goal just like Georgia did but, either way, I like the over here. Do not let the big total scare you away. Spain is favored by 3.5 goals on the goal line for a reason. I am looking for a 4-1 or 5-1 type match but, even if this over-matched Cyprus club can not score, note that 5-0 or 6-0 still works just as well for cashing this ticket. Cyprus just does not have the talent level to compete here and they are on the road so the hosts will be relentless in putting on a show for the home crowd as well. 10* OVER 4 in Spain

Rotation #210021: International Friendlies: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Saudi Arabia vs South Korea @ 12:30 ET @ St James's Park in Newcastle, UK - Saudi Arabia will enjoy the new manager bounce here with the recent appointment of new manager Roberto Mancini. Also, there is a lot of excitement in the program overall after all the recent big signings of players coming to play in Saudi Arabia leagues plus, for the program, that shocking 2-1 win over Argentina in November in the World Cup still resonates. However, they enter this match off a disappointing 3-1 loss to Costa Rica in a match played Friday here at St James Park also. That was their 4th straight match to total at least 3 goals and I expect that trend to continue here. I know they have a long history of low-scoring battles with South Korea but much of that his older history. In the here and now, South Korea is also hungry to get off the schneid and they enter this match off a scoreless draw. So you have two very hungry clubs here looking for goals and to achieve a victory. I like some of the market pricing here too and feel that is an indicator of what to expect here as well. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Saudi Arabia

NFL Monday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) @ New York Jets @ 8:15 ET - The Bills will be ready here. The Jets beat them last season in the game here in early November. That one moved the Jets to 6-3 on the season. After that game, the Jets lost 7 of 8 the rest of the way including a loss at Buffalo. Yes the Jets are improved but all the hype about Aaron Rodgers will also put a target on their backs. The Bills come in fired up after another dismissal from the playoffs and you know that Josh Allen wants redemption here after he and his teammates could not get it done in the post-season game in January. So lets look closely at this one. The Jets are improving and are respectable but they wrapped up last season with 6 straight losses. This is still a New York team that has TOTALED only 13 wins the last 3 seasons. Conversely, this is a Buffalo team that has AVERAGED 13 wins the last 4 seasons! The Bills are consistent, well-coached, and I like Allen to have a bigger game than Rodgers here. With Buffalo on the road for this one we get a very reasonable line to work with here and I am willing to lay it! Currently this line, as of very early game day morning, is available in the 1.5 to 2 range on the spread or 120 to 130 range on the money line. This is a helluva strong value in my opinion. The Bills lost 3 games all of last season and by a TOTAL of only 8 points! That is an average of 2.7 points per defeat. The Jets lost 10 games all of last season and that was by an average of 9.6 points per defeat! If one team pulls away in this game for a dominant win, who do you think would when you consider numbers like this? As we all know, strange things can happen in a game because after all, it is a GAME. However, I am merely pointing out that I do not think enough has changed for the Bills OR for the Jets from last season to this season to warrant this line. Has Buffalo regressed that much? Have the Jets improved that much? I am willing to put both those hypotheses to the test here because I personally do not believe that. Remember the Bills lost just 3 regular season games last season. This was one of JUST three so they remember losing here. They also have been waiting to get back on the field ever since the disappointing playoff loss to the Bengals. This is going to be a hungry road team here that will be tenacious all night long. Lay it! 10* BUFFALO (-)

MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals @ 6:35 ET - This one relates to a late season strategy that has worked quite well for me through the years. Here you have a match-up featuring two teams whose seasons are over. Yes I know that mathematically each one of these teams is still alive in the wild card race but realistically neither team is. The Nationals are dead last in the NL East and the Pirates are in 4th place in the NL Central and both clubs are looking to build toward next season. When there is no playoff pressure, hitters can really relax at the plate. So here you have a situation of relaxed batting lineups. We also have a Pirates bullpen that ranks only in the middle of the pack this season while the Nationals bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. That said, we should see runs throughout this one. The Pirates have not named a starting pitcher yet and I am not concerned who starts. The Nationals are expected to start Patrick Corbin and he is having another rough season and is slumping again of late. We have a rather low total to work with here (8.5 as of gameday morning) and the Pirates have averaged scoring a respectable 4.5 runs per game last dozen games. Pittsburgh has allowed 6.6 runs per game in last 5 home games. The Nationals have seen 7 of last 8 games total double digits in runs. I am expecting this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh

Rotation #225541: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -130 in Iceland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina @ 2:45 ET - Iceland is playing the first of 3 straight home matches so there is still a glimmer of hope for them in this competition. 5 of their last 6 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and I am expecting a 2-1 type of match here. We get extra line value here since this total is available at 2 goals. That is a huge value and I expect each club to get on the board which means at least a 1-1 match here but, again, look for a big push for that deciding goal here. Bosnia and Herzegovina very nearly let a 2-0 lead slip away against Liechtenstein in a 2-1 win in most recent match so they will be aggressive here and did beat Iceland 3-0 when these clubs met in March. Bosnia and Herzegovina should again have some success finding the back of the net here but also note that they have allowed an average of 2 goals per match since that victory. Iceland has lost 5 of last 6 matches and scored 7 goals in the lone win (over Liechtenstein) but allowed 2 goals per match in the 5 losses. You can see why, given the above stats and the situational aspect here of how these clubs enter this match, we can expect solid scoring here. 10* OVER 2 -130 in Iceland

Rotation #225537: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Armenia vs Croatia @ Noon ET - Armenia is paying the price for sitting on a 1-0 lead in most recent match and that ended up a 1-1 draw with Turkey. Considering that, plus the fact they are at home here, Armenia should be quite aggressive in this match. However, Croatia is a big favorite here for a reason and coming off a huge 5-0 win in most recent match. You can see why I am expecting goals here. Croatia also scored 4 goals in most recent road match - in terms of a true road match rather than neutral site - as they won 4-2 at Netherlands in a Nations League match. That said, I am confident in their scoring ability again here and do not feel Armenia can stop them. Armenia has scored and conceded in 5 straight matches and 7 of last 8 so the signs are definitely pointing toward goals in this one. Before the 1-1 draw with Turkey, 9 of the last 10 Armenia matches totaled at least 3 goals. Overall, the hosts last 11 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece! More of the same here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Armenia

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys (-) @ New York Giants @ 8:20 ET - The Giants deserve some respect here but the Cowboys continue to have their number. I just do not see that changing here. Note that the Giants entered last season having gone 14-35 the 3 prior seasons. Then last year they made the post-season and even won a playoff game before getting blasted by the Eagles. However, New York started last season 6-1 and then went 3-6-1 the rest of the way in the regular season. This means that we are still talking about a team that, outside of last year's hot start to the season, has gone 17-41-1 in their other 59 regular season games the past 4 seasons. Yes, the Giants certainly showed improvement last season as they even made playoffs. However, isn't it concerning they won those games early in the season and then struggled the rest of the way? This is a classic case of getting line value because the better team in the match-up is on the road. With a line of -3, we are basically just asking the Cowboys to win this game. Dallas has actually had tremendous success in this role as they have covered 20 of last 23 (excluding pushes) when they are a divisional favorite of more than two points. The Giants, when I look at their receivers, just do not have the talent level to match a determined Dak Prescott with his bolstered receiving group and I feel the Cowboys will eventually put away in this game. Value with the short road favorite here. Lay it. 10* DALLAS (-)

MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:10 ET - Yes it is an evening game in San Francisco but an early start time of 5:10 since it is the Sunday night game so there will still be a decent wind blowing out and temperatures will not be too chilly at gametime for this one. I like the fact that Winn is not getting many strikeouts for the Giants. Yes he has respectable numbers so far but he has been far from dominant as indicated by the strikeout rate and his minor league ERA numbers were not overly impressive so this is not surprising. The Rockies will do some damage here. At the same time, Lambert is in line to get rocked for Colorado. He has been hit rather hard in 5 of last 7 starts and just allowed 4 earned runs in most recent outing. In night games this season, Lambert has gone 2-5 with a 5.82 ERA. The Rockies have seen 7 of last 9 games total at least 10 runs and their last 5 games have been on the current road trip so this is not just a Coors Field thing. Those games averaged 12.7 runs per game! We only need 9 to be a winner here. The Giants have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 6 home games and they are starting to hit better recently after a tough patch as SF has now scored 8 or more runs in 3 of last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in San Francisco

NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (-) @ New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - The current line on this one as of game day morning is 3.5 and the Patriots saw 8 of their 9 losses (including all 4 at home) come by a margin of at least 4 points last season! Also, take a look at the Eagles final 9 games last season. Prior to a 3 point loss in the Super Bowl, Philadelphia had gone 9 straight games without a single game decided by less than 5 points. The point is that I am picking the winner in this game to be the Eagles and the above stats are also why I feel confident that laying the points is not an issue. Philadelphia is, of course, one of the best teams in the league right now. The Patriots, ironically Brady is being honored at today's game by the way, is nowhere near the level of team they use to be in the Tom Brady days. So the point is we are getting a lot of line value here considering the Eagles are not only expected to win their division this season, they are a Super Bowl contender again. Compare this to a Patriots team that many project will end up in last place in the AFC East this season. So, the point is that we have line value here on the surface and it looks even better as you dig deeper here. Jalen Hurts over Mac Jones at QB. A relentless Eagles defensive line attacking a key weakness in this Patriots team (offensive line shaky in preseason). Also, the Pats have some injury issues in the offensive line plus there were already concerns at the tackle positions. The Patriots will ride some emotions for awhile here (season opener at home and honoring Brady) but eventually the Eagles will pull away as the visitors in this match-up hold key edges all over the field. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-)

Rotation #225529: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Lithuania vs Serbia @ 2:45 ET - Serbia has scored an average of 3 goals per match in the last 4 meetings with Lithuania. Serbia likes to play an attacking formation with an aggressive style and I expect that to be the case here as well as they look to dominate an opponent they know they are fully capable of dominating. However, with Lithuania at home, do not be surprised if they also find the back of the net at least once in this one! Lithuania lost the most recent meeting 2-0 in March but they had scored a goal in 3 straight meetings between these clubs prior to that. At home, they will get back on the board here but they will not be able to stop Serbia the way I see it. Note that Lithuania has allowed 2 goals in B2B matches but also did score 2 goals in most recent match - a 2-2 draw. Serbia has both scored and conceded in 3 straight matches and that trend continues here but they are 1.5 goal favorite on the goal line with good reason! Look for at least a 3-1 final here and that cashes this ticked. 10* OVER 3 in Lithuania