Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-08-23 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 7:10 ET (Game 2 of double-header) - Because this is Game 2 of the double-header we could see a few of the better arms from the bullpen get used up in the first game. Also, the Nationals bullpen has struggled this season and is one of the worst in the majors. That has played in a key role in a lot of Washington games being high-scoring for many weeks on end now - dating back to even before the All-Star break - and I expect more of the same here. The Nationals also send Gray to the mound, most likely, in Game 2. Gray has been hit hard in 3 of his last 5 starts and the Phillies are seeing him for the 3rd time already this season. Suarez is expected to get the start in the 2nd game today after Wheeler starts in the first. Even if this does not hold up I do like the over here regardless of starters. However, if it is indeed Suarez it is worth nothing that he has allowed 46 hits in 34 innings since the start of June. The way the Nats are swinging the bats, they should pound him. Of course Phillies a big favorite for a reason however and they should answer Washington run for run in this one. 10* OVER 9 in Philadelphia (Game 2 of 2) | |||||||
08-08-23 | Cubs v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - The Mets exploded for double digits in runs yesterday showing they may still have some life left in them, at least at home. As for the Cubs, they had been red hot but they scored only 2 runs despite 9 hits yesterday. Surely they will make up for that here. Chicago will take advantage of facing a struggling Mets hurler but, as the same time, the Mets should have no trouble with the opposing pitcher in this one! The Cubs send Taillon to the mound and he has a deceivingly low ERA of late because he actually has been hit hard in 6 of his last 8 starts. In fact, in those 6 outings he allowed 43 hits in 31.2 innings of work! Taillon is facing a fired up Mets team here looking to build off yesterday's big performance. At the same time, the Cubs should come up large at the plate here as the Mets send Carrasco to the mound. Carrasco has allowed 23 runs (21 earned) on 32 hits in just 15.1 innings spanning his last 4 starts. 4 of the last 5 Mets games and 6 of last 8 Cubs games have totaled at least 10 runs! In fact those 8 Chicago games have averaged 14.4 runs per game and more of the same expected here! Both bullpens have been struggling too! 10* OVER 9.5 in New York Mets | |||||||
08-07-23 | Royals v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 10 in Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET - Big number here with posted total but absolutely seems justified. Is Cole Ragans a true starter or more of an opener? Who cares as the fact is he has not been great but neither has this Royals bullpen either. The key with Kansas City of late is they are hitting the ball very well. KC continues to get involved in high-scoring games. I know the Red Sox have cooled off at the plate of late but they generally do hit well at home and should bounce back here against a suspect Royals pitching staff. As for the Kansas City sticks, they certainly should stay hot here. Brayan Bello allowed 4 earned runs in 6 innings in his first start this month. Also, he compiled a 5.48 ERA last month in July. The Royals have seen 8 of last 10 games total 11 or more runs. In fact those 10 games averaged 11 runs too! As for the Red Sox, they scored an average of 5.5 runs per game last 6 games at home before getting rocked 13-1 Sunday. They will bounce back here at the plate but will not be able to slow down the KC hot sticks. OVER 10 in Boston | |||||||
08-07-23 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:40 ET - I know the Tigers are not known for great hitting but Detroit will take advantage of facing Lopez here. The Twins right-hander is off a solid start at St Louis but allowed 5 homers in his 3 starts before that. Also, his 2 road starts prior to the strong start against the Cardinals saw him allow 9 earned runs in less than 11 innings of work. The Tigers send southpaw Joey Wentz to the mound and his most recent outing was out of the bullpen and was respectable. However, as a starter this season Wentz is 1-9 with a 6.95 ERA and opponents hitting .299 against him. In his last start at home he hosted these same Twins and allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in 5 innings in a start in which he was fortunate the damage was not worse. The Twins have a .474 slugging percentage last 30 days and that ranks them #1 in the American League! The Tigers are off a 10-6 loss but generally not known for much offense but have scored at least 5 runs in 5 of last 8 games. The Tigers have averaged scoring 4 runs per game last 18 games and I am looking for at least a 5-4 type game here. OVER 8.5 in Detroit | |||||||
08-06-23 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:10 ET - 5 straight Dodgers games have totaled at least 10 runs and 4 straight Padres games have totaled at least 10 runs. This is a double perfect situation. I know that Lance Lynn had a solid debut for the Dodgers but that came against the league-worst Athletics. Prior to that he allowed 17 earned runs in 16.2 innings in his last 3 starts overall. In terms of just looking at his road starts (the start versus Oakland was at home), Lynn has allowed 27 earned runs in 35 innings spanning his last 6 outings away from home. The Padres can crush him and a Dodgers bullpen whose struggles continued yesterday. As for San Diego, however, they have a pitching issue of their own with Rich Hill expected to get the start here. How desperate are playoff-potential teams for arms when you consider a guy like Hill is being picked up? The 43-year old southpaw has been fortunate in allowing fewer earned runs in some of his recent starts but this is still a guy who has given up 46 hits in 36 innings spanning his last 7 starts. Hill is very hittable and this is a solid Dodgers lineup looking to bounce back off an 8-3 loss yesterday. Given all of the above both clubs should pound the ball tonight. The Padres have a .468 slugging percentage since the All-Star Break and that rates 5th in the majors. The Dodgers have a .444 slugging percentage on the road this season and that ranks 2nd in the majors! 10* OVER 9.5 in San Diego | |||||||
08-06-23 | Royals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Kansas City Royals @ 1:35 ET - The Royals are so bad on the road. Their recent winning streak was almost entirely filled with home games. Now they are back on the road and after winning the first game of this series they then lost the 2nd game as expected. They send Greinke to the mound for this one and he is 1-11 this season. Not only does he have an 0-7 record in road games this season, the Royals have won only 1 of his road start this entire season. In his last 8 road start Kansas City is 0-8. Look for that streak to reach 9 in a row right here! Taijuan Walker is 5-1 with a 2.80 ERA at home this season. He has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. The Phillies are the much better team, at home, and with the better bullpen, and the better starting pitcher. Most of the KC losses this season have been by 2 or more runs. Look for this one to be as well as the Royals drop to 0-9 in Greinke's last 9 road starts! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -105 | |||||||
08-05-23 | Mets v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 or 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - On the season and, in particular, of late both these pitchers have struggled in the situation they are in now. Kyle Gibson for the Orioles has struggled at home and Tylor Megill has struggled on the road and again their recent numbers home/away, respectively, are even worse than their full season numbers which are, to say the least, bad enough! Gibson has a 5.55 ERA at home this season and opponents have hit .300 against him in his home outings. Megill has an 8.00 ERA on the road this season with opponents hitting .345 against him as a traveler. This one should get ugly and the Mets bullpen is struggling and, in fact, both teams could again give it up as this game goes on. Yesterday's game was just 2-0 entering the 6th inning and then the teams exploded for a final score of 10-3. The Orioles have now gone 14-7 since the All-Star break and scored 5.4 runs per game in their last 10 at home. 6 of last 7 games at Camden Yards have totaled at least 10 runs. The Mets are 9-11 since the All-Star break and have scored 6 runs per game in last 7 wins and allowed 7 runs per game in last 11 losses. Don't be surprised, given the above, if we see a 7-6 type final in this one. 10* OVER 9 or 9.5 in Baltimore | |||||||
08-05-23 | Royals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 vs Kansas City Royals @ 6:05 ET - Sanchez has a 2.66 ERA this season. Marsh has a 6.75 ERA this season. I know the Royals are hot and snuck out another win yesterday. But 6 of their 7 victories in their current 7-game winning streak came at out. They will not win on the road again here and most of their losses this season have been by at least 2 runs. Marsh is 0-5 this season and I know Sanchez is also winless this season. However, Sanchez has deserved much better and he should help the Phillies bounce back strong here. Regardless of the starting pitching, in fact, this one will be all Philly as I challenge KC to win B2B road games. I just do not see that happening and the home team rolls here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115 | |||||||
08-04-23 | Rockies v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies @ 8:15 ET - The Cardinals Wainwright, as I have mentioned before, has a couple things going against him now. He lost his long-time batterymate when Yadier Molina retired and he is now just way past his prime and on the downhill slide to retirement. He is having a very rough season and has a 7.18 ERA on the season. His counterpart tonight is Flexen going for the Rockies and the right-hander is also having a very rough season. Flexen is 0-5 with an 8.08 ERA this season. He accumulated nearly all of those stats with the Mariners this season so it is not like his numbers are inflated because of Coors Field. He has only made one start since coming to Colorado. Also, the bullpens are two of the worst in the majors this season based on ERA stats so that also favors the over here. 6 of last 9 Rockies games have totaled at least 11 runs and that included 2 of 3 on the road and those 3 most recent Colorado road games have averaged 12 runs apiece. The Cardinals have not scored great of late but had averaged about 5 runs per game in 11 home games since All-Star break before coming off a 5-3 home loss to Twins yesterday. I look for them to get right back on track here. 10* OVER 9.5 in St Louis | |||||||
08-04-23 | Royals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -110 vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:05 ET - Yes, the Royals have won 6 straight. However, all those wins were at home. Philadelphia is a huge favorite here with good reason and, of course, we will not lay 2 to 1 odds on the Phillies here. Where the line value is, however, is that on the run line the Phillies are available in a pick'em price range of -110. That will get us involved here! Nola, throughout his career, has been known for pitching very well in Philly. As for Lyles, he is 2-12 this season and has a 6.15 ERA on the year. The Royals are 14-39 on the road this season and 17-49 against teams with a winning record! The Phillies are winners in 6 of last 9 overall and 6 of last 9 at home also. Additionally, the Royals 75 losses have included 62 by at least a 2-run margin. Look for the Phillies to roll big here at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -110 | |||||||
08-03-23 | Twins v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
MLB Thursday MLB 10* OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:45 ET - The Twins Sonny Gray had a fantastic start to this season, particularly in April, but has not been overly impressive since then. In June he got hit at a .282 clip and in July he compiled a 4.85 ERA. His combined record these 2 months is 0-4. The Cardinals should enjoy another big day at the plate but I also expect the Twins bats to get in on the act today too after losing 7-3 yesterday. Minnesota will take advantage of a struggling Matthew Liberatore. Even in his recent minor league starts Liberatore has struggled but now he has been thrust back into the starters role for St Louis due to a shortage of arms for the rotation. It has not been earned based on performance as Liberatore has gone 3-5 with a 6.35 ERA and a .314 BAA in his 18 MLB appearances (15 starts). The Cardinals have seen 12 of 19 games since the All-Star Break total at least 9 runs. The Twins have seen 13 of 18 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Given the above trends and the pitching match-up here (including bullpens - St Louis bad, Minnesota mediocre) this one should fly over the total. 10* OVER 9 in St Louis | |||||||
08-03-23 | Phillies -122 v. Marlins | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -120 @ Miami Marlins @ 12:10 ET - The Phillies bounce back after last night's unreal loss in which they were up 5-0 and then 5-2 and 5-4 in last innings and then up 7-5 and 8-7 in extra innings. It was a game they never trailed and yet lost. Heading into yesterday's action, the Phillies certainly have been the much hotter team in comparison with the Marlins. Now today in early action look for a bounce back. Michael Lorenzen makes his debut with the Phillies and he had pitched very well for the Tigers this season. Johnny Cueto has allowed 4 homers in 13 innings at home in what has been an injury-plagued season for him. Though he is back now and off a solid start, that one came against the Tigers. This will be a much tougher challenge for him. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120 | |||||||
08-02-23 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:05 ET - Orioles won 13-3 yesterday and have won 3 straight games plus continue to pile up big runs. That should continue here against Kikuchi. The Blue Jays southpaw has a decent ERA but he actually got hit at a .293 clip last month and a .298 clip in May. I don't think he is that dominant and couple that with the way Baltimore is hitting and we should see plenty of runs here. Also helping in that regard is that Rodriguez is very likely to struggle on the hill for the Orioles. He has a 6.21 ERA this season and Rodriguez has a 7.36 ERA and a .299 batting average against in evening action this year. The Blue Jays can (and will) hit well at home here as they bounce back off an ugly loss. I am not saying Toronto will bounce back for the win but they certainly should bounce back in terms of getting their bats back on track after yesterday's ugly loss. The Jays have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 10 games and that even includes some recent lower-scoring results. 10* OVER 8.5 in Toronto | |||||||
08-02-23 | Phillies -126 v. Marlins | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -126 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -125 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies won 3-1 yesterday and 4-2 the day before and here are some notes from the past two days' write-ups that make me like Philadelphia again today as well. Keep in mind, the Phillies entered this series off an extra innings loss at Pittsburgh Sunday and had lost B2B games. However, prior to this, Philadelphia was on a long-term run that saw them win 31 of 46 games. I look for Philadelphia to continue to get back on track here in this series at Miami. The Marlins entered this series off a win and having won 4 of 6 games. However, this was preceded by a stretch in which Miami lost 8 straight games and 13 of 18 games. Overall, the Phillies have been the hotter team and I look for the road team to continue to get back on track here in this continued key battle for the #2 spot in the division behind the surging Braves. We are getting some nice line value here because Garrett has decent numbers but he will prove to be no match for Wheeler. Note that Garrett is off a strong start to wrap up July but this was preceded by him allowing 16 earned runs in 18 innings over his prior July starts. Wheeler has been piling up strikeouts plus has allowed 1 earned run or less in 4 of his last 5 road starts. He dominates again here and the Phillies roll continues. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 | |||||||
08-01-23 | Mets v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets @ 8:10 ET - I don't think Quintana can be trusted just yet. He is still working his way back into form after suffering injury during spring training this season. Quintana has been hittable so far and he faces a Royals lineup that has some extra confidence right now. Generally speaking, Kansas City tends to hit better at home than on the road and now KC enters this game riding a 3-game winning streak and having produced some solid games at the plate recently. As for the Mets lineup, they have plenty of bats that can give Greinke trouble here. The veteran right-hander has been hit hard in each of the last two months and his form shows no indication of anything changing anytime soon. Greinke is backed by a Royals bullpen that is one of the league's worst also. So New York has a big game at the plate but I also look for the Royals to score well too as their recent surge continues as they go for a season-high (for them) 4th straight win. 10* OVER 9.5 in Kansas City | |||||||
08-01-23 | Phillies +116 v. Marlins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 116 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +115 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies won 4-2 yesterday and here are some notes from yesterday's write-up that make me like Philadelphia again today as well. Keep in mind, the Phillies entered this series off an extra innings loss at Pittsburgh Sunday and had lost B2B games. However, prior to this, Philadelphia was on a long-term run that saw them win 31 of 46 games. I look for Philadelphia to get back on track here in this series at Miami. The Marlins entered this series off a win and having won 4 of 6 games. However, this was preceded by a stretch in which Miami lost 8 straight games and 13 of 18 games. Overall, the Phillies have been the hotter team and I look for the road team to continue to get back on track here in this key battle for the #2 spot in the division behind the surging Braves. We are getting some nice line value here because Ranger Suarez is a much better pitcher than his recent ERA would indicate but he is up against a big-name pitcher in Sandy Alcantara and that is impacting this line. Alcantara is only 4-9 this season but enters this game off a fantastic CG performance. Note that this was only the 3rd time this season he has gone at least 8 innings and after the first two he got destroyed in the next start. I expect a repeat of that here. 10* PHILADELPHIA +115 | |||||||
07-31-23 | Angels v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Angels @ 7:20 ET - Something is not right with Charlie Morton. He has struggled in his last two starts with too many walks and too many big hits given up. The Angels will take advantage. At the same time, however, Los Angeles pitcher Griffin Canning has a chance somewhere between minimal and non-existent in terms of shutting down this red hot Braves team. Atlanta just continues to pile up runs and wins and Canning enters this one having been hit at a .316 clip this month. Also, he has allowed 13 earned runs in 19 innings over his last 4 starts. The Braves will certainly take advantage. Atlanta is the top slugging team in the majors and also the top hitting team in the National League. The Braves also will take advantage of facing an Angels bullpen that is a weakness. Los Angeles has been winning though as they are 10-5 since the All-Star break and they have averaged scoring 6 runs per game during this stretch. The Braves have also averaged 6 runs per game over their past 11 games and there is a reason this total is posted at double digits. Don't let the big number scare you as we should see at least a dozen runs scored in this one given the pitching situation and two clubs that are stepping to the plate with quite a bit of confidence right now. 10* OVER 10 in Atlanta | |||||||
07-31-23 | Phillies -104 v. Marlins | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -110 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies are off an extra innings loss at Pittsburgh yesterday and have lost B2B games. However, prior to this, Philadelphia was on a long-term run that saw them win 31 of 46 games. I look for Philadelphia to get back on track here at Miami. The Marlins are off a win and have won 4 of 6 games. However, this was preceded by a stretch in which Miami lost 8 straight games and 13 of 18 games. Overall, the Phillies have been the hotter team and Taijuan Walker gives them the pitching edge over Edward Cabrera here. Walker has gone 8-2 over his last dozen starts and has taken his ERA from 6.53 down to 4.06 over this stretch. As for Cabrera, the Marlins are winless in his last 3 starts and he has given up 9 earned runs in 11 innings during this stretch. Look for the road team to get back on track here in this key battle for the #2 spot in the division behind the surging Braves. 10* PHILADELPHIA -110 | |||||||
07-30-23 | Reds v. Dodgers OVER 10.5 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds @ 4:10 ET - The Reds and Dodgers played out to a 3-2 final yesterday and, surprisingly, LA won despite only 3 hits in the game. After that unusually low-scoring battle, I am looking for a very high-scoring match-up here on Sunday afternoon. It will be a hot afternoon in LA and the ball should carry better than usual here and these are two starting pitchers likely to get roughed up plus neither bullpen has been overly impressive this season. The Dodgers bullpen ERA ranks them 21st. The Reds bullpen WHIP ranks them 23rd out of the 30 teams in MLB. In other words, don't let the big line scare you here. This one should fly over the total. Note that Graham Ashcraft struggled badly in his lone appearance against the Dodgers this season. He has pitched better lately but a lot of that was based on match-ups. This is not a good match-up for him. Also, as for the Dodgers Michael Grove, he has pitched in the majors in April, June and July so far this season. He has had at least 4 appearances in each month and has been hit at over a .300 clip in each month! Grove will struggle here against a Reds team that has shown more and more confidence at the plate as this season has gone on. This LA team is ranked #3 in MLB for slugging percentage and the Reds are a top ten offense for on base percentage this season. Cincinnati had averaged 5 runs per game last 10 games before yesterday's tough loss. The Dodgers have scored an average of 6.5 runs per game last 11 games. 10* OVER 10.5 in Los Angeles Dodgers | |||||||
07-29-23 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* OVER 9.5 in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:15 ET - Last night's match-up was a rare low-scoring one between these teams as they have been flying over for a quite a while now. Remember that Thursday's game was a Chicago win by a 10-3 final as yet another over came in. Entering this series, the Cubs were off a 10-7 win Wednesday which followed a 7-3 win Tuesday which followed a 7-2 win Sunday! That means that 14 of last 16 Cubs games (88%) have totaled at least 9 runs and a 9.5 is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 18 of last 22 (82%) games total at least 9 runs. The Cardinals bullpen struggled again Thursday after a game Wednesday in which they hung on for the 11-7 win at Arizona after losing to the Diamondbacks Tuesday in a game in which their bullpen allowed all 3 runs in the 8th inning. The Cardinals have seen 11 of 15 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the Cards have averaged scoring 5.6 runs per game in those 15 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7.4 runs per game last 13 games and are so confident at the plate as they have won 9 of 10 games. This one should see plenty of runs too as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 16th and the ERA for the St Louis bullpen is ranked 24th. As for the starting pitchers in this one, the Cubs Jameson Taillon has struggled in all but one of his recent starts and that was against a Yankees team he pitched for each of the last two seasons. Other than that one revenge game he performed well in, he has allowed 35 hits in about 26 innings over his other 5 recent starts. The Cards Adam Wainwright is a guy who had a fantastic career and most of that was spent throwing to batterymate Yadier Molina. He has retired now and Wainwright is now 41 years old and those two factors have helped lead the way to him getting destroyed throughout this 2023 season. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 9.5 in St Louis | |||||||
07-28-23 | Phillies -150 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -150 @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 ET - I know this line is a little pricey but I am very confident in a Phillies victory here. Philadelphia was 25-32 in early June. They have since gone 30-15. The Pirates were 32-27 in early June. They have since gone 13-30. As you can see, this teams have been exactly the opposite in their patterns this season. Now it is the Phillies time and note that Zack Wheeler is off a great start at Cleveland. Over his last 4 road starts he has allowed just 5 earned runs in 25 innings! Conversely, the Pirates Mitch Keller has been rocked over his last two starts. Keller has had 3 really rough starts in his 4 outings in July. In these 3 starts, Keller has allowed 18 earned runs on 27 hits in 16 innings of work. This looks like another very tough match-up for Keller and he also is known for struggling against left-handed bats in particular. The Phillies certainly have some dangerous hitters that step in on that side of the plate. This one has the makings of a road rout and the Phillies have the bullpen edge too. The Phils have won 21 of 32 against teams with a losing record this season. The Bucs have won only 23 of 69 games against teams with a winning record this season. 10* PHILADELPHIA -150 | |||||||
07-27-23 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 9 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* OVER 9 in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:45 ET - Cubs off a 10-7 win yesterday which followed a 7-3 win Tuesday which followed a 7-2 win Sunday! That means that 13 of last 14 Cubs games (93%) have totaled at least 9 runs and that is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 17 of last 20 games total at least 9 runs. The Cardinals bullpen struggled again yesterday but they hung on for the 11-7 win at Arizona yesterday after losing to the Diamondbacks Tuesday in a game in which their bullpen allowed all 3 runs in the 8th inning. The Cardinals have seen 10 of 13 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the Cards have averaged scoring 6 runs per game in those 13 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7.6 runs per game last 11 games. This one should see plenty of runs as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 17th and the ERA for the St Louis bullpen is ranked 23rd. As for the starting pitchers in this one, Steele has been struggling some in July and is getting hit at a .316 clip this month. The Cards Mikolas is struggling a bit again and has been hit hard last two starts. Also, in home starts he has struggled in 3 of last 4 outings. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 9 in St Louis | |||||||
07-26-23 | Cubs v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET - Cubs off a 7-3 win Tuesday which followed a 7-2 win Sunday! That means that 12 of last 13 Cubs games have totaled at least 9 runs and 8.5 is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 16 of last 19 games total at least 9 runs. The White Sox bullpen struggled again yesterday and remember they were off a tough 5-4 loss in extra innings Sunday at Minnesota in which their bullpen failed them. The White Sox have seen 7 of 10 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the White Sox have averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 9 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7.3 runs per game last 10 games. This one should see plenty of runs as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 19th and the ERA for the White Sox bullpen is ranked 25th. As for the starting pitchers in this one, Stroman has been struggling bad dating back to late June and Lynn is struggling again and having another rough season. Lynn has a 6.18 ERA this season and Stroman has struggled in 4 of last 5 outings. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago | |||||||
07-26-23 | Mets v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - Both Rodon and Quintana have hardly pitched this season. Yesterday's game was a 9-3 final and I am looking for another high-scoring battle today. The Yankees had won 3 straight games before the loss yesterday and they scored an average of 6 runs per game in those 3 victories. The Mets have won 5 of 8 games and have scored an average of 5.6 runs per game last 7 games. 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees | |||||||
07-25-23 | Cubs v. White Sox OVER 9 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* OVER 9 in Chicago White Sox vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:10 ET - Cubs off a 7-2 win Sunday and 11 of last 12 Cubs games have totaled at least 9 runs and that is currently the posted total on this game. Lot of value here as the Cubs, going further back, have seen 15 of last 18 games total at least 9 runs. The White Sox are off a tough 5-4 loss in extra innings Sunday at Minnesota in which their bullpen failed them. The White Sox have seen 6 of 9 games since the All-Star break total at least 9 runs. Also, the White Sox have averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 8 games. The Cubs have averaged scoring 7 runs per game last 9 games. This one should see plenty of runs as, out of the 30 MLB teams, the Cubs bullpen ERA is ranked 19th and the ERA for the White Sox bullpen is ranked 26th. As for the starting pitchers in this one, Kopech has had major command issues for the White Sox with 24 walks and 11 earned runs over his last 18.2 innings. Yes his walks allowed have been crazy! As for the Cubs starter (Hendricks) he is off a strong start but this was preceded by allowing 9 earned runs on 18 hits (6 homers!) in just 10 innings of work. More struggles likely here and both teams continue their recent trend of getting involved in high-scoring games. 10* OVER 9 in Chicago | |||||||
07-25-23 | Orioles v. Phillies -116 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -120 vs Baltimore Orioles @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies have been scuffling a bit lately and the Orioles have been the much hotter team plus Baltimore is currently in the top spot in the AL East. That said, how can Philadelphia have opened up as high as a -140 favorite here? Exactly...and now they are down to as low as a -115 as the betting markets want no part of the Phillies right now. That said, I do...and the value is off the charts with Philly in this spot. They are at home with an 11-4 Taijuan Walker on the mound and the O's Kyle Gibson is a very hittable veteran guy that a tough lineup like the Phillies have can absolutely do a ton of damage on. The home team pulls away as this one goes on. 10* PHILADELPHIA -120 | |||||||
07-24-23 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 9 in Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - The Astros have a solid bullpen but the Rangers bullpen is actually one of the worst in the majors for team ERA. That could be an issue here for sure as Jon Gray may not last long in this one. The Texas right-hander has allowed 38 hits in less than 30 innings of work spanning his last 6 starts. Though Gray gave up no earned runs in his last start he was hit hard and this followed a 5 start stretch in which he allowed 19 earned runs in about 25 innings of work! Houston's Brandon Bielak has pitched better last couple starts in July but had a rough June and faces a tough Rangers lineup here. Not only is Texas off an 8-4 win yesterday, the Rangers last 13 games have averaged 11 runs per game and 9 of the 13 games totaled at least 9 runs. The posted total on this game is, in fact, a 9 and the Astros should hit very well per the struggles of Gray and the Rangers bullpen. However, the Texas bats should answer the call as well as the Rangers have averaged scoring 5.2 runs per game in their 9 games since the All-Star break. The Astros also have averaged 5.3 runs per game since the All-Star break. Don't be surprised if we see each team reach the 5-run mark in this one. OVER 9 in Houston | |||||||
07-24-23 | Rockies v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 9 -115 in Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:05 ET - Not concerned with who the starting pitchers are. These are the two worst bullpens in the National League based on relievers combined ERA so far this season. Also, the Nationals won 6-1 yesterday and 7 of their 8 games since the All-Star break, prior to yesterday's game, had totaled at least 11 runs! The Rockies are off a 3-2 extra-innings loss yesterday but had scored an average of 5 runs per game and gone 5-2 in their first 7 games, before yesterday's defeat, after the All-Star break. OVER 9 -115 in Washington | |||||||
07-23-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 4 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* OVER 9 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - Light wind but still likely to be blowing out. Jordan Montgomery has faced the Cubs only once this season and it was here at Wrigley Field and he did struggle as he allowed 6 earned runs in just 5 innings and now he faces a tough road match-up again as the Cubs have been hitting great overall of late. Yesterday these teams combined for 14 runs as they made up for a rare, strange result the day before when they combined to go 3 of 18 with runners in scoring position. Remember that rare result Friday had followed a long stretch of high-scoring games for both teams. Also, the game Friday was 4-3 Cubs in top of 8th when the Cards had bases loaded and 1 out. It was a bad beat that Friday's game did not get to 4-4 right there which would have guaranteed a win on our over 8 or 8.5 we had Friday. Then yesterday's got it right back as the Saturday game easily flew over the total early. This one leaves no doubt. Cubs going with James Taillon here and the big right-hander is 1-4 with a 7.06 ERA and with teams hitting .320 against him - all of those are his stats in home games this season. More of the same expected here as he also is 0-4 with an 8.76 ERA in his 6 day starts this season and opponents are hitting .330 against him in those games. Both St Louis and Chicago have been involved in a lot of overs for weeks now. More of the same here. 10* OVER 9 in Chicago | |||||||
07-23-23 | Giants v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -122 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 or 9 in Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants @ 1:35 ET - The Nationals bullpen ERA of 5.47 ranks them dead last in the National League. Couple that with a starting pitcher likely to struggle plus another team going with a bullpen game and you have a great set-up here. Scott Alexander expected to start for the Giants and he is merely just an opener here and Anthony DeSclafani will likely get the bulk of the work here. That is noteworthy as Anthony DeSclafani has allowed 31 earned runs in his last 40 innings and has been susceptible to giving up the long ball on the road. He has allowed 5 homers in 5 innings on the road spanning his last two outings. As for MacKenzie Gore, the Nationals southpaw has allowed at least 5 earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts that have gone at least 2 innings. Neither team expected to enjoy much success from the mound in this one. The lineups should stay hot as San Francisco bounces back after a rare bad performance yesterday as they scored just 1 run. The Giants started out 5-2 after the All-Star Break and the 5-game winning streak saw them score an average of 6.4 runs per game. The Nationals 8 games since the All-Star break have averaged 12.6 runs per game and 7 of the 8 have totaled at least 11 runs! The only one that did not was Friday's game which was 5-3 after 5 innings but then the scored died and it ended that way. This one will not die! It should fly over the total. 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Washington | |||||||
07-22-23 | Phillies -116 v. Guardians | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -115 vs Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 ET - Cleveland snuck out the 1-run win yesterday but had lost 5 of 7 games before that. Phillies have now suddenly lost 3 straight but had been red hot over about a 2-month period prior to this. Tanner Bibee has pitched well for the Guardians but he is still a rookie hurler. Here we get a chance to take Zack Wheeler - 60-38 since the last 6 seasons combined with an ERA in the low 3's over this stretch - over a rookie hurler. Couple that with Cleveland struggling, for the most part, against quality teams this season and you have a very nice set-up here. The Guardians are a combined 14-5 against Kansas City, Pittsburgh, and Oakland. They are 34-44 against the rest of the league. The Phillies are 26-13 against teams with a losing record this season and yes Cleveland is below .500 on the season. Grab the value with the road team at a very favorable price here as Bibee faces a tough test here and these Phillies get back on track behind one of their best pitchers, Wheeler, and get a much needed win. Philly has not lost 4 games in a row since a 5-game losing streak that was back in late May/early June. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115 | |||||||
07-22-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* OVER 9.5 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - Wind blowing out. Mikolas has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 of the last 7 starts in which he has gone more than 3 innings - that one was rain-shortened. In those 5 starts he allowed an average of 4.6 earned runs per outing! Also, the start right before all this (his first of June) saw Mikolas allow 10 hits in just 5 innings. I am just not sold on him being turned round completely and the right-hander faces a tough road match-up as the Cubs have been hitting great overall of late. Yesterday these teams combined to go 3 of 18 with runners in scoring position. All this after a long stretch of high-scoring games for both teams. Also, the game yesterday was 4-3 Cubs in top of 8th when the Cards had bases loaded and 1 out. It was a bad beat that yesterday's game did not get to 4-4 right there which would have guaranteed a win on our over 8 or 8.5 we had yesterday. We get it back today. This one leaves no doubt. Cubs going with a bullpen game and both St Louis and Chicago have been involved in a lot of overs for weeks now. More of the same here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Chicago | |||||||
07-21-23 | Giants v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs San Francisco Giants @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals bullpen ERA of 5.54 ranks them dead last in the National League. Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have a great set-up here. Alex Wood expected to start for the Giants and he has allowed 7 earned runs on 9 hits in 7 innings spanning his last two starts. He also walked 7 batters while striking out just 3 in those two outings. As for Jake Irvin, the Nationals right-hander has allowed 9 earned runs on 17 hits in 14 innings this month and only has 7 strikeouts in those outings. Neither team expected to enjoy much success from the mound in this one. The lineups should stay hot as San Francisco bounces back after a rare bad performance yesterday as they faced a tough starter Thursday. The Giants are 5-2 since the All-Star Break and the 5-game winning streak saw them score an average of 6.4 runs per game. The Nationals 6 games since the All-Star break have averaged 13.7 runs per game and all 6 have totaled at least 11 runs so, with this total at 9.5 across the board, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 7 in a row! 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington | |||||||
07-21-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8 or 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET - The wind will be blowing in for this one plus Justin Steele has great full season numbers. However, the above is merely serving to keep this total lower than it should be! Note that the Cards Jack Flaherty is off a strong start but was hit hard in 3 of his 4 starts prior to that. In those 3 outings, Flaherty allowed 29 hits in 17 and 1/3 innings! I also like the fact that the Cubs last 9 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 8, prior to day yesterday, had totaled at least 11 runs! The Cardinals also have been hitting very well and have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games since the All-Star break. The Cards have seen of 6 of their 7 games since the All Star break total at least 9 runs so, with this total at 8 or 8.5 across the board, we have great value. As it pertains to Chicago's recent results, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 10 in a row! Steele has been rocked in both of his July starts so his full season numbers are masking the fact that his current form is off. As for Flaherty, he has a 5.62 ERA in day games and the Cubs should bounce back after a tough night at the plate yesterday. Chicago had been hot at the plate prior to yesterday. Also, a day game at Wrigley Field even with wind blowing in is still a nice set-up the way these two teams have been trending and with consideration to the starting pitchers. As always, my play is action on the starting pitchers! 10* OVER 8 or 8.5 in Chicago Cubs | |||||||
07-20-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs OVER 8 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:05 ET - The wind will be blowing in for this one plus Marcus Stroman has great full season numbers. However, the above is merely serving to keep this total lower than it should be! Note that the Cards Steven Matz is 0-7 with a 4.86 ERA so far this season. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 8 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 7 have totaled at least 11 runs! The Cardinals also have been hitting very well and have been involved in a lot of high-scoring games since the All-Star break. The Cards have seen of 5 of their 6 games since the All Star break total at least 10 runs so, with this total at 8 across the board, we have great value. As it pertains to Chicago's recent results, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 9 in a row! Stroman is off a good start but this followed him allowing 15 runs (12 earned) in 14 innings spanning his 3 prior starts. As for Matz, he has a 6.03 ERA in road games and he is 0-6 with a 5.80 ERA in night games. So an evening game at Wrigley Field is not exactly a good combo for him! 10* OVER 8 in Chicago Cubs | |||||||
07-20-23 | Brewers v. Phillies -113 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -115 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 12:35 ET - Philadelphia lost yesterday but consider the value now today with a pick'em price because Burnes is on the mound for Milwaukee but the betting markets essentially ignoring the fact that Walker is 11-3 this season and has been dominant in his own right. The Phillies certainly have the more potent lineup plus they are the hotter team plus they have the home field edge. Yes each team entered this series on a winning streak but, after yesterday's 5-3 Milwaukee win, the Brewers are still only 19-15 last 34 games while the Phillies are 27-11 last 38 games. That coupled with the situational edge makes the Phillies the play here. Philadelphia, not including the All-Star break period, is 5-1 last 6 times when they are at home and coming off a loss. Milwaukee has averaged scoring just 2.8 runs per game last 6 games. Phillies averaging 5.8 runs scored last 5 games. Phillies get right back on track at home here after rare loss as a host yesterday. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115 | |||||||
07-19-23 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - As mentioned in write-ups each of the past two days, we get value here because neither one of these clubs are known for hot hitting. The key here is that the Nationals bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the National League and the Cubs ERA ranks them as not much better as they are in the bottom half of the league! Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have another great set-up here. Trevor Williams expected to start for the Nats and he has allowed 11 earned runs in less than 18 innings over his last 4 starts. Kyle Hendricks expected to start for the Cubs here and he is 0-4 with a 5.00 ERA in evening action this season and he enters this start having been completely destroyed in his last two starts. This includes allowing 6 homers in his last two outings. Neither lineup is overly impressive as these clubs each rank slightly under the middle of the pack range in MLB for slugging percentage so far this season. However, the pitching - including bullpens so this play is action - coupled with fair weather for an over this evening should lead to plenty of runs here. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 7 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 6 have totaled at least 11 runs! The Nationals last 11 games all have totaled at least 9 runs so, with this total at 8.5 across the board, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 12 in a row! 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs | |||||||
07-19-23 | Brewers v. Phillies -158 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -158 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -160 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 6:40 ET - We got burned yesterday as Philadelphia outhit Milwaukee 12-4 but only won the game 4-3 and we had run line so it was a loss. Even though today's line is still fairly price on the money line, it is at least a little lower and I do not want to get burned again so, this time, we lay the price! The Phillies certainly have the more potent lineup plus they are the hotter team plus they have the home field edge. Yes each team entered this series on a winning streak but, after yesterday's 4-3 Phillies win, the Brewers are only 18-15 last 33 games while the Phillies are 27-10 last 37 games. That coupled with the mound edge makes the Phillies the play here. Philadelphia expected to start Christopher Sanchez here and he has been much better than his 0-3 record would lead you to believe. He has a 3.26 ERA and opponents are hitting just .221 against him and he has looked particularly strong recently. Colin Rea goes for the Brewers today and he has allowed at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts and the Philadelphia hot sticks are likely to give him plenty of trouble here as their surge continues. Phillies stay red hot at home here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -160 | |||||||
07-18-23 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 or 9 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - As mentioned in yesterday's write-up, we get value here because neither one of these clubs are known for hot hitting. The key here is that the Nationals bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the National League and the Cubs ERA ranks them as not much better as they are in the bottom third of the league! Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have a great set-up here. The Nationals are expected to start Patrick Corbin here and he is off a rare strong start but this followed him having allowed 30 earned runs on 62 hits on 45 hits in his 8 starts that preceded that rare strong outing before the All Star break. As for Chicago's Jameson Taillon, he also is off a rare strong start and but was struggling before that. Also, the strong outing came against the Yankees team he went 14-5 for last season so don't be surprised if he comes out flat in this one after that rare gem against his former team. You know Taillon wanted that one bad. Prior to that outing, Taillon had allowed 42 earned runs in 49 innings over 11 starts leading into that one. Neither lineup is overly impressive as these clubs each rank slightly under the middle of the pack range in MLB for slugging percentage so far this season. However, the pitching - including bullpens so this play is action - coupled with fair weather for an over this evening should lead to plenty of runs here. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 6 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 5 have totaled at least 11 runs! The Nationals last 10 games all have totaled at least 9 runs so, with this total at 9 or 9.5 across the board, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 11 in a row! 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Chicago Cubs | |||||||
07-18-23 | Brewers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 -105 vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 6:40 ET - Teheran struggling badly for the Brewers in recent starts. Nola, for the Phillies, has been showing a lot of outings lately in which he looks like "vintage Nola" and his dominating stuff should keep Milwaukee off balance here. The Phillies certainly have the more potent lineup plus they are the hotter team plus they have the home field edge. Yes each team enters this one on a winning streak but the Brewers 18-14 last 32 games while the Phillies are 26-10 last 36 games. That coupled with the mound edge makes the Phillies the play here. Note that 35 of 42 Brewers losses have been by 2+ runs this season and that is an 83% rate! 9 of last 11 Phillies wins have been by 2+ runs and that is an 82% rate. Phillies win in a home blowout here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -105 | |||||||
07-17-23 | Nationals v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs Washington Nationals @ 8:05 ET - We get value here because neither one of these clubs are known for hot hitting. The key here is that the Nationals bullpen ERA ranks them dead last in the National League and the Cubs ERA ranks them as not much better as they are in the bottom third of the league! Couple that with a pair of starting pitchers likely to struggle and you have a great set-up here. The Nationals are expected to start MacKenzie Gore here and he allowed at least 5 earned runs in 3 of the 5 starts that preceded his final (rain-shortened) outing before the All Star break. As for Chicago's Drew Smyly, he also was struggling before the break. In fact, Smyly allowed 14 earned runs in 11 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts before the All-Star break. Smyly also has allowed at least 5 earned runs in each of his last 3 home starts! Neither lineup is overly impressive as these clubs each rank slightly under the middle of the pack range in MLB for slugging percentage so far this season. However, the pitching - including bullpens so this play is action - coupled with nice weather for an over this evening should lead to plenty of runs here. I also like the fact that the Cubs last 5 games all have totaled at least 9 runs and the last 4 have totaled at least 11 runs! The Nationals last 9 games all have totaled at least 9 runs so, with this total at 8.5, this over is testing a 100% RUN going for 10 in a row! 10* OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs | |||||||
07-16-23 | Astros v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels vs Houston Astros @ 7:10 ET - The Angels and Astros combined for 25 runs yesterday. This game should be another one that easily gets to double digits. First off, both bullpens got hammered yesterday. Secondly, the starting pitchers here are each likely to get rocked. Tyler Anderson has a 5.25 ERA and has been getting hit at a .278 clip on the season. The Angels southpaw facing an angry Astros lineup that will be relentless after they scored 12 runs yesterday yet lost the game! Los Angeles also should have another big day at the plate as Houston's Cristian Javier is struggling badly after a hot start to the season. He has allowed 18 earned runs in less than 11 innings spanning his last 3 starts overall. Also, in terms of road starts, he has struggled in each of his last 3 away from home with 18 earned runs allowed in about 13 innings of work. The Angels and Astros sticks both pick up where they left off yesterday and the bullpens likely to again struggle. Keep in mind, the Angels have had 4 straight games and 6 of last 7 all total at least a dozen runs! All signs point to this one doing the same. 10* OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels | |||||||
07-16-23 | Yankees v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees @ 3:10 ET - I am a little surprised this total has not dropped below an 11 but actually that should tell us all something here. The fact is that the markets are expecting the same thing I am here...that we get an over despite the fact the Yankees lineup has not been great and Gerrit Cole is on the mound for New York. Cole has very little experience at hitter-friendly Coors Field and the hot dry weather is going to be ideal for the ball to carry very well in the thin air of Denver this afternoon. As for the Yankees sticks, they did bounce back for 6 runs yesterday and they will take advantage of a struggling hurler here. Sure enough, after a shockingly good start to this season, Chase Anderson is back to reality for the Rockies. The Colorado hurler has not only been hit hard, he has been absolutely destroyed the last month and a half. More of the same expected here and this one turns into a slugfest. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado | |||||||
07-15-23 | Yankees v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs New York Yankees @ 8:10 ET - I know Judge took batting practice yesterday but is still out for awhile and this Yankees lineup does not look good at all. However, this is still Coors Field and this is the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball and today New York will be facing a Rockies starter that has struggled this season. Also, behind Connor Seabold is a Colorado bullpen that ranks 27th in the majors with a 4.86 ERA. The Yankees bullpen has been much better but, again, this is a tough place to pitch and the Rockies are one of the top hitting teams in the majors when at home. Colorado will hit well again here just like yesterday's 7-run outburst but, this time, the Yanks join the party. New York will take advantage of Seabold as he is 0-4 in his last 4 starts with 24 earned runs allowed in 17 innings. As you can see, the Rockies hurler is not just struggling, he is getting destroyed of late. The Yankees Clarke Schmidt has an ERA of nearly 6.00 this season in his road appearances with opponents hitting nearly .300 against him away from home. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado | |||||||
07-15-23 | Rays v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
SATURDAY PLAY as this now goes in Game ONE of Double-Header SATURDAY at 2:10 ET. Here is yesterday's write-up which still applies after the Friday rain out: MLB 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 8:10 ET - This game could be impacted by weather early and might get a delayed start but once they do get underway I am expecting a solid over here. The Royals on the run line at -2.5 runs are priced in the -115 range. In other words, solid chance they win this game by at least 3 runs. So, for example, if KC scores 3 the oddsmakers are saying odds are that TB scores 6. Of course that alone gets us to 9 runs and a push but I am absolutely expecting double digits in runs here. The Rays Tyler Glasnow has struggled on the road and also against lefties. The Royals have plenty of left-handed lumber in their lineup plus they do tend to hit better at home. However, while I do expect Kansas City to do some damage here, I also expect the Rays to go absolutely ballistic in this one! Tampa Bay should pound Alec Marsh. The young Royals hurler went 8-23 with a 5.72 ERA in the minors. In this, his rookie season in the majors, Marsh is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA and he has had an issue with too many walks also. Behind him is a Royals bullpen that ranks among the worst in the majors and will also struggle here against a strong Rays lineup. The set-up, other than some early evening weather concerns, is perfect for a slugfest in this one. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City | |||||||
07-14-23 | Padres v. Phillies +103 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +100 vs San Diego Padres @ 6:05 ET - Padres only 18-24 on the road this season. Phillies are 22-16 at home this season. San Diego is 25-27 against teams with a winning record this season. Philadelphia is 23-11 this season against teams with a winning record. We are getting a value line here because of the expected starting pitching match-up of Yu Darvish versus Christopher Sanchez. Not only do I not care who the starting pitchers are - going action on pitchers as per usual here - I also feel the Phillies have the edge. Yes, Darvish is a "big name" pitcher but he also has a 6.16 ERA on the road this season. This is not a big surprise as last year his road ERA was about 1 run higher than at home for the season. Also, the year before his road ERA was about 2 runs higher than at home for the year. As for Sanchez, he has been solid since returning from the minors last month. He has allowed just 5 earned runs in 21 innings spanning his last 4 starts. More of the same here and I like the Phillies at home over the Padres here regardless of the starting pitchers. 10* PHILADELPHIA +100 | |||||||
07-09-23 | Mets +118 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Sunday New York Mets +115 @ San Diego Padres @ 4:10 ET - I did fall just short with Mets run line +1.5 runs yesterday but as mentioned in that write-up, this Padres team is just not that good. They came into the season with high expectations but look at their batting order. They of course have that potent "heart of the order" but they are weak elsewhere and particularly 6 through 9 spots. The Mets lineup not as strong in the middle but is much more complete in terms of respectable sticks through the entirety of the batting order. As for the pitchers here, I know Joe Musgrove is a solid pitcher with good numbers but I expect Max Scherzer to better him here. The Mets right-hander is 6-0 in his last 6 decisions. He has allowed only 16 hits in the 20 innings spanning his last 3 starts and those were against the two world series teams - Astros and Phillies - from last year's fall classic plus he faced a strong Diamondbacks lineup. With consideration to that, Scherzer has been sharp on the road of late and I expect success for him here in San Diego. This is a lot of line value here with the money line available at an underdog price on the Mets with Scherzer on the mound here. I will go action with the pitchers though as last week snapped some streaks/trends that I expect to get payback for right here. The Padres, before yesterday's win, had lost 8 of 12 games and the Mets were on a 6-game winning streak before yesterday's loss! NEW YORK METS +115 | |||||||
07-09-23 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 7.5 in San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies @ 4:05 ET - This is a low total considering the teams combined for 20 hits yesterday plus the Rockies had 9 hits and 5 runs in the Friday win too. I look for the hits to continue here. The Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the mound and he is 1-7 with a 5.89 ERA on the road this season. The Giants send Logan Webb to the mound and he has allowed 15 hits in less than 12 innings in his last two starts. Webb has been solid this season but has a 4.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. Total a little low for an afternoon game in San Francisco and considering the Giants bullpen ERA ranks in the middle of the pack while the Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. 10* OVER 7.5 in San Francisco | |||||||
07-08-23 | Mets +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -132 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Saturday New York Mets +1.5 -135 @ San Diego Padres @ 10:10 ET - This Padres team is just not that good. They came into the season with high expectations but look at their batting order. They of course have that potent "heart of the order" but they are weak elsewhere and particularly 6 through 9 spots. The Mets lineup not as strong in the middle but is much more complete in terms of respectable sticks through the entirety of the batting order. As for the pitchers here, Snell is the big name guy but he allowed 11 baserunners in 5 innings in his most recent start and was very fortunate to come out of it unscathed. He also got rocked by the Mets earlier this season and I would not be surprised to see that again here against Snell. As for Peterson, the southpaw has struggled this season and got demoted. But even when struggling earlier this season he handcuffed these Padres in his only start against them. The southpaw also has been better since his demotion and has allowed just 1 earned run in 10 innings. This is a lot of line value here with the run line available at a respectable price on the Mets here. The Padres have lost 8 of 12 games and the Mets won in extra innings to carry momentum from that into this one plus they already had momentum from what is now a 6-game winning streak! Also, in last 13 games, Mets only have 1 loss by more than 1 run and that is why I am riding the exceptional value with this run line here. NEW YORK METS +1.5 -135 | |||||||
07-08-23 | Phillies +104 v. Marlins | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies +105 @ Miami Marlins @ 4:10 - We were fortunate here with the Phillies yesterday as they were down to their final out in the 9th inning and managed to get an ultra-clutch 2-run homer for the road win! The old saying - if it is not broke do not try to fix it - applies here! The fact is that Philadelphia keeps on winning on the road and I am going back to the well again here. They have won 13 straight road games and this ties their franchise record in the modern ERA (since 1900) as only the 1976 Phillies have won as many road games in a row - also 13. The streak should continue here as Suarez is off a tough start but has a 1.97 ERA on the road this season and is coming off a June in which he compiled a 1.08 ERA in his five starts. As for Garrett, he got rocked by the Phillies in his starts against them in 2022 and 2021 and he enters this start with a 5.27 ERA at home this season. So these pitchers have a home/road dichotomy that favors us plus you have a team looking to take its road run to 14-0! I like the odds here! PHILADELPHIA +105 | |||||||
07-07-23 | Phillies -120 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -120 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Even in extra innings yesterday Philadelphia found a way. The Phillies have now won 12 straight road games! Off a tight win last night following a Wednesday Philadelphia win in which they outhit TB 17 to 7 the Phillies continue to get the job done. Yes, the Marlins are a solid team but they have lost 4 of 7 and been outscored 32 to 7 in the 4 losses! Phillies, on the other hand, have lost only 7 of last 29 games! Phillies starter Zach Wheeler has allowed just 1 earned run in last 2 road starts spanning 12 innings. He also held the Marlins to just 1 earned run in 6 innings when he faced them earlier this season. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara was strong for so long but has not been the same pitcher this season. He has allowed 4 earned runs or more in 4 straight when it comes to his home starts. Alcantara also was rocked for 9 earned runs in only 4 innings when he faced the Phillies earlier this season. All of the above bodes well for the Phillies and we'll back the team with the stronger lineup and a respectable bullpen and that enters this one on a 12-0 run in road games. Look for 13 straight wins! PHILADELPHIA -120 | |||||||
07-06-23 | Phillies +120 v. Rays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 120 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies +120 @ Tampa Bay Rays @ 6:40 ET - The Rays were a bigger favorite here but have dropped in price and no wonder as to why. The Phillies have won 11 straight road games! They are hitting better than the Rays are right now. Yesterday Philadelphia outhit TB 17 to 7. Yes, the Rays are a strong team but they have been struggling. Tampa Bay has lost 10 of 16 games! Phillies, on the other hand, have lost only 7 of last 28 games! The Rays went with an opener yesterday and it did not work out well as everyone saw. Once again today it is another opener, Shawn Armstrong, and more of the same for the hot Phillies lineup expected here. As for Phillies starter Christopher Sanchez, he had a 2.40 ERA last month and is ready to roll here. Sanchez has 20 strikeouts in less than 20 innings on the season and he can give the Rays some trouble here. Look for Phillies to stay hot. Everyone will be backing TB to not get swept here but how can you fade a team with a the stronger lineup and a respectable bullpen and that enters this one on an 11-0 run in road games. Look for 12 straight wins! PHILADELPHIA +120 | |||||||
07-05-23 | Phillies +117 v. Rays | Top | 8-4 | Win | 117 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +117 @ Tampa Bay Rays @ 6:40 ET - The Phillies Taijuan Walker had a fantastic June. Opponents hit just .171 against him for the month. In his last 5 starts, Walker has allowed only 3 earned runs in 32 innings! Walker is about as "in the zone" as you can get! As for Tampa Bay, they are going with a bullpen game here and they are expected to start Zach Littell but the starter is really inconsequential in a bullpen game so I am going with action on the pitchers here as per usual. The big key is that we get line value here because the Rays have been the better team on the season but the Phillies have been the hotter team of late. Tampa Bay actually has gone just 6-9 last 15 games! Philadelphia has gone 20-7 last 27 games! Not only that, the Phillies have won 10 straight road games. I am testing that run here and fully expecting the road dog adds another W to the 10-0 run! 10* PHILADELPHIA +117 | |||||||
07-04-23 | A's v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Detroit Tigers vs Oakland Athletics @ 6:40 ET - The Tigers and Athletics are two of the weaker hitting teams in the league but this one offers great value because Oakland has been involved in a number of higher-scoring games of late and the Tigers do tend to hit better at home. The A's 8 of last 9 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those 8 games have averaged a dozen runs per game! The Tigers 7 of last 8 games have totaled at least 9 runs and those 7 games have averaged 13 runs per game. Considering numbers like that and warm weather in Detroit for this one I feel we have a bargain line here at 8.5 runs. Yes Skubal was strong in his minor league rehab starts but this will still be his first start at the MLB level in nearly a year. As for the Athletics Sears, he is 1-6 this season and he has given up 13 runs (11 unearned) in his last 3 starts spanning 18 innings. More of the same here. The Tigers bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack and the Athletics bullpen ranks dead last this season. I would not be surprised to see each team to get to 4 runs apiece here and that would guarantee us of at least a 5-4 final here. 10* OVER 8.5 in Detroit | |||||||
07-04-23 | Phillies +131 v. Rays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 131 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +130 @ Tampa Bay Rays @ 4:10 ET - The Rays are certainly a strong team and former Phillie Zach Eflin is having a huge season for Tampa Bay. However, the Phillies have a number of guys that have enjoyed success at the plate against him. Also, the Rays have lost 8 of 14 games so they don't exactly come into this match-up red hot. The Phillies are off a rare series loss after losing 2 out of 3 to the Nationals. The Phillies entered that series having won 18 of 23 games. Comparing that to TB, Philly certainly enters this series as the hotter team. Philadelphia will be starting Aaron Nola here and the only Rays hitters with experience against him have gone a combined 3 of 20 for a .150 batting average. Conversely, Philadelphia's Harper, Harrison, Realmuto, Schwarber and Turner are a combined 22 of 65 for a .338 batting average against Eflin. I am expecting the road dog to score the minor upset on the road here in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA +130 | |||||||
07-03-23 | Mariners v. Giants OVER 7 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 7 in San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners @ 9:45 ET - This total has dropped too low. The Giants Webb has decent numbers on the season but he had a 4.70 ERA in June and he has allowed 36 hits in 31 innings over his last 5 starts. As for the Mariners Woo, he has been stronger of late for sure and including at home. However, the fact is that he does have a 6.00 ERA in his 3 road starts at the MLB level and I would not be surprised to see him struggle a bit here. The Giants 7 of last 8 home games have totaled at least 7 runs. The Mariners 8 of last 10 games have totaled at least 7 runs. In fact, those ten games have averaged 12 runs per game. More of the same likely here. I fully expect 8 or more runs and feel the recent trending fully supports that expectation. OVER 7 in San Francisco | |||||||
07-03-23 | Angels v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 110 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Monday San Diego Padres -1.5 +110 vs Los Angeles Angels @ 9:40 ET - Snell has been throwing very well for the Padres. He is coming off a fantastic June and dating back to May as well he has allowed only 4 earned runs in his last 7 starts. Conversely, Barria has been hit hard in each of his last two starts. The Angels are 8-15 against left-handed starters this season. The Padres certainly have not been great this season but Los Angeles, prior to a win Sunday, had lost 8 of 11 games. The Padres have been struggling but have won 9 of last 16 home games and 30 of 41 Angels losses by at least 2 runs this season. 33 of 38 San Diego wins have been by 2+ runs this season. That said, if you like the Padres to win here, you can bet they have strong odds at a big win as well and that means I have no hesitation in grabbing the plus money run line price here. SAN DIEGO -1.5 +110 | |||||||
07-02-23 | Tigers v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers @ 3:10 ET - The Rockies and Tigers off a low-scoring battle yesterday but both were trending toward higher-scoring games b before that. Based on that factor plus the weather conditions expected on a hot afternoon in Denver Sunday, look for plenty of runs in this one. The ball will be jumping off the bats and both these guys have been homer prone this season. I like this play regardless of the starting pitchers but note that Seabold has allowed 9 homers in just 18 innings in his 5 home appearances (4 starts). As for Manning, he is off a solid start but that was just his 3rd of the season and he allowed 4 homers in less than 12 innings of work in his first two starts. Both these guys could get rocked and neither bullpen is considered strong and I am looking for piles of runs to be scored in this one as a result. Again, prior to yesterday's 4-2 Detroit win in extra frames, both these teams had been trending to high-scoring ballgames. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado | |||||||
07-02-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -125 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -125 vs Washington Nationals @ 1:35 ET - Phillies had been hot but then entered Saturday off a surprising 2-1 loss to the Nationals Friday. Sure enough they bounced right back with a 19-4 yesterday. Philadelphia has Suarez expected to start here and the Phillies left-hander has been great over his last 6 starts with only 5 earned runs allowed in 40 innings of work for a 1.13 ERA! Suarez is in top form! As for the Nationals, Trevor Williams has been hit at a .304 clip on the road this season and he is coming off a tough June. Williams has been roughed up in 5 of his last 6 starts! The Phillies have won 19 of 25 games. They will build off yesterday's 19-4 win and keep on rolling today. The better team at home and note that the Nationals have gone 12-31 this season against teams with a winning record. The Phillies have gone 25-11 this season against teams with a losing record. Mismatch! 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -125 | |||||||
07-01-23 | Diamondbacks v. Angels OVER 10 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 10:05 ET - The over is the play here. The Angels are expected to start Tyler Anderson and he has allowed 20 earned runs in 26 innings over his last 5 starts. The southpaw has a 5.54 ERA on the season and is getting hit at a .283 clip. The Diamondbacks Ryne Nelson has two good starts in his last six but in the other 4 starts he allowed 16 earned runs in 18 and 2/3 innings. This one shapes up to be another ugly one as the Angels are #5 in the league for slugging percentage. By the way, the Diamondbacks are right behind them at #6 in the league for slugging percentage. These are two potent lineups and, after last night's game was rather light-hitting and stayed under the total, look for a bounce back performance here. Plenty of runs likely. 10* OVER 10 in Los Angeles Angels | |||||||
07-01-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 4-19 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 +100 vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - Phillies had been hot but are off a surprising 2-1 loss to the Nationals yesterday. They should bounce right back here. Philadelphia has Wheeler expected to go here and he is 5-1 with a 3.05 ERA in day games this season. He is known for pitching very well at Citizens Bank Park as well and loves pitching in Philly. As for the Nationals, Gore is 1-5 the last two months. Also his month-by-month ERA has gone from a 3.00 to a 4.06 to a 4.55 ERA in June. Additionally, Washington has never won 4 games in a row this season. They now enter this game on a 3-game winning streak. In other words, fading the Nats here is putting yourself in a never-lost situation for 2023 involving the Nationals. In fact, Washington is 2-10 last 12 times when entering a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The Phillies entered yesterday's game 18-5 last 23 games. They will bounce right back here in a big way. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +100 | |||||||
06-30-23 | Tigers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:10 ET - The Tigers are one of the worst hitting teams in the league but Coors Field has a way of bringing out the best in visiting teams. Not only that, facing a pitcher like Austin Gomber certainly should help matters as well. Gomber is 3-3 with an 8.72 ERA this season at home. As for the Tigers starter here, Michael Lorenzen is expected to get the call here. He has struggled in his last 4 starts. 15 earned runs in 23 and 2/3 innings for Lorenzen in his last 4 starts and those were all at home. The Rockies can score well at home and certainly should here. The Tigers should pound the ball on the road here as they take advantage of a hitter-friendly park and weak pitching. The Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. Colorado games have totaled 17 or more in 3 of last 5 games. The Rockies are 4-3 last 7 games and those games have averaged 13 runs per game. Look for another one to get into that range here. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado | |||||||
06-30-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -170 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -170 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -170 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:05 ET - The Phillies have won 18 of 23 games. Washington is 9-29 this season against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia just swept the Cubs at Wrigley Field and they are red hot overall with wins in 4 straight games and the aforementioned 18-5 run. Washington is 7-15 in divisional games and 8-21 against left-handed starters. Christopher Sanchez is a lefty getting hit at only a .220 clip in his first few starts this season and he should enjoy success against a downtrodden Nationals team. Sanchez has also had low BAA in each of his last 4 seasons at the minor league level. As for the Phillies, they have been red hot at the plate plus they are now back home where they generally hit very very well. This team has been red hot run at home ever since their big run last season from the 2nd half of the season through a trip to the World Series. The Nationals have shockingly won 4 of 5 games but this followed a stretch in which they went 10-24. Also they have struggled so badly against winning teams as noted above. Nats are expected to start Josiah Gray and he is off a good start but this followed allowing at least 4 earned runs in 3 of 4 starts and that included one against this Phillies team. This will be a blowout win. So the road favorite, even at this price, is offering nice value here at a great low price. PHILADELPHIA -170 | |||||||
06-29-23 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 14-3 | Win | 104 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Thursday OVER 11.5 or 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Going with the over again here. The weather in Denver could see some rain but still very warm temperatures. The ball carries so well here and another wild one just like yesterday's 9-8 Rockies win could be in store. The LA bullpen has struggled this season and so too has the Rockies bullpen. Only the Nationals bullpen has a higher ERA than the Colorado and Los Angeles bullpens in terms of the rankings this season in the National League. As for the expected starters here, Chase Anderson has absolutely been destroyed in his last two starts with 16 earned runs allowed in less than 6 innings of work. As for the Dodgers Emmet Sheehan, this is his first ever road start at the MLB level and Coors Field is probably the worst park in the league in terms of being a first start for a rookie pitcher. Yes, Sheehan has really impressed so far in his 2 MLB starts but both were at home. Also, this is very limited action and in the minors he never pitched above the AA level. This could be a very tough spot for him. The runs will flow again at Coors Field this evening. OVER 11.5 or 12 in Colorado | |||||||
06-29-23 | Phillies -117 v. Cubs | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies -117 @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Phillies have won 17 of 22 games. The Cubs are 19-19 last 38 home games so Wrigley Field has been nothing special for the hosts this season. The Phillies appear poised for another big win here regardless of the pitchers as they are the hotter team right now. The Cubs have lost 3 straight games at Wrigley Field and the Phillies tend to hit well here. In looking at the pitchers, Taijuan Walker has allowed only 2 earned runs in last 4 starts. In the month of June - 5 starts - Walker has allowed only 16 hits in 30 innings of work. Kyle Hendricks starts for the Cubs and he entered this season off B2B years in which his ERA was at least 4.77 for the year. This season has seen him produce a better ERA but he has an ugly 1.53 WHIP at home including allowing 17 hits in 14 innings. So the road favorite offering nice value here at a great low price. The Phillies also have won 9 of 10 road games including 8 in a row! Time for 9 straight! PHILADELPHIA -117 | |||||||
06-28-23 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday OVER 12.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Action on the pitchers. Kyle Freeland has been struggling and is the expected starter here and Dodgers may go with a bullpen game. The LA bullpen has struggled this season and so too has the Rockies bullpen. Only the Nationals bullpen has a higher ERA than the Colorado and Los Angeles bullpens in terms of the rankings this season in the National League. Freeland has allowed 25 earned runs in 34 innings spanning his last 7 starts. He is in trouble again here on a warm evening in Colorado in which the ball should be carrying quite well at Coors Field. Note that the Rockies are #2 in the NL in both batting average and slugging percentage in home games this season. The Dodgers have a .441 slugging percentage on the road this season which ranks #2 in the National League. So both teams enjoy plenty of success at the plate here as both bullpens struggle. Off a rare home shutout yesterday, you know what is likely coming today in Colorado. Games tend to be very high-scoring here. Overall, prior to yesterday's game, the Rockies last 19 games have averaged 11.6 runs per game and that includes both home and away games. The Dodgers have trended under recently but this followed a high-scoring stretch and there is a reason this game is priced this way. OVER 12.5 in Colorado | |||||||
06-28-23 | Phillies -133 v. Cubs | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -135 @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Phillies are 16-5 last 21 games as they continue red hot. They also have won 9 of 10 road games including 7 in a row. Regardless of starting pitchers here, though definitely Nola would rate an edge over Smyly in most every experts analysis of these pitchers, I like the road team to roll. Philadelphia is hot and the Cubs have not been as special at home this season as in years past. They are only 20-18 as a host this season. Also, against teams with a winning record they are 16-27 while the Phillies are 22-10 against teams with a losing record this season. Value with the road team at a very fair price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -135 | |||||||
06-27-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday Texas Rangers Run Line -1.5 +100 vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - When the Tigers are entering a road game off a win they have gone 1-6 the last 7 times that situation has occurred this season. Detroit got the big 7-2 upset win yesterday and handed us a loss right here in this spot on the run line but I will come right back with the same thing today. As you might expect with a bad team like Detroit, they don't fare well when off big wins. In fact, the last 4 times they were off a win by a margin of 5 or more runs, they have gone 0-4 and they lost those 4 games by a 27-6 combined score. So this is a great play against situation that is 100% PERFECT since mid-May. As for the Rangers, they are 7-1 this season when off a loss by a margin of 5 or more runs! That includes PERFECT 2-0 when at home and off a big margin loss of 5 or more runs. That is the case here so we are working with double perfect edges and have the better team at home. Rangers are 27-11 this season against teams with a losing record this season. Detroit is 15-29 against teams with a winning record this season. TEXAS -1.5 +100 | |||||||
06-27-23 | Reds v. Orioles -145 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -145 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday Baltimore Orioles Money Line -145 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - The Reds Andrew Abbott has some great numbers but he allowed 3 homers in his most recent start and is still a rookie. The Orioles Tyler Wells has great numbers this season and more of a long-term track record than Abbott. Plus they have the home field edge here and are hosting a Reds team that has lost 3 straight games. Baltimore has won 24 of 36 home games and are red hot. Cincy was hot but now has lost 3 straight games and this is the right spot for another Orioles win. BALTIMORE -145 | |||||||
06-26-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Monday Texas Rangers Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - This is a battle of southpaws and the Tigers are just 5-10 versus lefties this season and the Rangers are 14-8 versus lefties. Also, the Rangers are 27-10 against teams with a losing record this season plus they are 24-13 at home. The Tigers are 15-22 on the road and 14-29 against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 5-2 this season when they enter this game off exactly 2 straight losses. In other words, they have had only 2 losing streaks reach the 3 or more mark this season. Heaney holding hitters to a .230 batting average this season and held them to .214 last season. Boyd has a 5.37 ERA this season and the Rangers have the situational edge and pitching edge and overall team edge. TEXAS -1.5 -105 | |||||||
06-26-23 | Reds v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 10 in Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7 ET - This one could have a delayed start as it will be a rainy late afternoon period in Baltimore today. But I do expect they will be able to get this one in even if it starts later than originally scheduled. That said, I do not want to miss out on what should be another solid over winner involving Cincinnati. The Reds have seen 6 of last 8 games not only go over the total, the 6 games have each totaled at least 13 runs! Cincinnati has won 12 of 14 games and averaged scoring 6.5 runs in those 14 games. The Orioles last dozen games have seen 6 of them reach double digits. Baltimore's last dozen games have averaged 10 runs per game and considering the Orioles are now taking on a Reds team trending over, this looks like a slugfest. Two solid lineups involved. I like this play regardless of starting pitchers but will mention that the Reds Brandon Williamson has a 5.40 ERA on the season and has been getting hit at a .289 clip this month. The Orioles Cole Irvin has a 7.71 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .316 against him. OVER 10 in Baltimore | |||||||
06-25-23 | Braves v. Reds OVER 11.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Sunday OVER 11.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:40 ET - Levi Stoudt gets the start for the Reds and Charlie Morton expected to start for the Braves. No matter who gets the call here as starting pitchers, I look for these two teams to remain red hot at the plate and I am expecting plenty of runs. From 2020 to 2023, Morton is actually just 4-10 in day games. He tends to struggle more in his day game outings and, overall, he is on the cusp of some real struggles this season too. Morton has a low ERA but he has been hit at a .259 clip so far this season and so he is fortunate his ERA has remained low. Morton is 1-3 with a 4.15 ERA and opponents hitting .274 against him in day games this season. The Reds are so hot at the plate plus they are at home so I am expecting continued success for their lineup here. The issue for Cincinnati however will be that the Braves are likely to keep pounding away at the plate also. Stoudt is a young hurler that has a 10.29 ERA in his 2 games (1 start) so far for the Reds this season. At the AAA level of the minors this season he has as many walks as strikeouts with 26 of each in his 36 innings of work. Atlanta enters this one having won 9 of 10 games and they have scored an average of 8.2 runs during this hot streak. Cincinnati had won 12 in a row before yesterday's high-scoring loss. The Reds averaged 6.6 runs during this 13-game stretch. I am looking for another 7-6 or 8-7 type game here given the above numbers. OVER 11.5 in Cincinnati | |||||||
06-24-23 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:15 ET - The Tigers don't hit very well but this is a low total and a great spot to back them. After a 4-1 loss yesterday, Detroit - who generally is a better team at home - should bounce back here. Pablo Lopez had one good start last five games but in the other 4 he allowed 17 earned runs. It is not as if he is a dominant pitcher. As for Reese Olson, he has been hit quite hard last two starts and both of those were at home. He has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings in those two outings and faces a tough Minnesota team here. The Twins have won the last two games by a combined score of 10 to 1. Minny, prior to this, has seen 9 of last 11 games total at least 8 runs. Those 9 games averaged 11.4 runs per game! We should certainly have no trouble getting past 8 runs in this one on a warm evening at Comerica Park for this one. OVER 8 in Detroit | |||||||
06-23-23 | Braves v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Friday OVER 10.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:40 ET - This match-up features the two hottest teams in the majors and I am expecting plenty of runs as they both stay hot. There are even some 11s out there and we are going to grab the 10.5 for the value here. As for the expected Braves starter, AJ Smith-Shawver, he is still an unproven rookie that has surprised in 2023 compared to what we saw of him in the minors prior to this. I look for him to come back down to earth here. These are two potent lineups and I look for them to cash in on many of the opportunities that they are presented with here. Cincinnati is starting Luke Weaver and he has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 9 of his 11 starts this season. Weaver has particularly struggled this month with a 10.13 ERA and opponents hitting .356 against him. Weaver has a 7.75 ERA in his 7 night game starts this season. The Braves have won 8 straight games and scored an average of 8 runs per game in this winning streak. The Reds have won 11 straight games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this winning streak. I feel confident we'll see at least a 6-5 type game here but really should see much more in a hitters park with two of the hottest teams in the majors. OVER 10.5 in Cincinnati | |||||||
06-22-23 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Thursday OVER 7.5 in New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:05 ET - This total has dropped to a 7.5 and is just too low in my opinion. I know both these teams have solid bullpens but I like these two lineups and I like the fact that both teams should hit these starters well. Domingo German gets the start for the Yankees and he just got rocked for 7 earned runs in just 2 innings in his most recent start. Also, just about 3 weeks ago in his final start of May he allowed 4 earned runs to this Seattle. Now in this one the Mariners start Bryan Woo and the rookie right-hander is off a solid home debut but allowed 8 earned runs in about 7 innings in his two starts before that and these were both on the road. So look for runs here as I know this series has been low-scoring but the Mariners entered this one with their last 7 road games averaging 12 runs apiece! 6 of the 7 totaled at least 8 runs and this one will too. Yes I know is cool weather in the Bronx by late June standards but these teams will still hit well here. The Yankees have won 4 of 5 against the Mariners this season and averaged 6.8 runs scored per game in the 4 victories. This one gets both teams back to higher scoring ways based on the pitching match-up expected. I am going action on the pitchers but do like the starters here for a higher-scoring game. OVER 7.5 in New York Yankees | |||||||
06-20-23 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:40 ET - My first thought when I looked at this one was possibly playing the underdog Phillies. Suarez has been pitching very well for them while Strider has actually been struggling for the Braves. However, I just can not fade this red hot Braves lineup right now. Atlanta enters this game having won 13 of 15 games. The Braves have scored 7.4 runs per game during this red hot stretch. This includes 9.3 runs per game during their current 6-game winning streak. This total is only an 8.5 and 7 straight Atlanta games have totaled at least 9 runs. The Phillies also have been hot with wins in 13 of 16 games. Philadelphia has scored an average of 5.6 runs during this hot streak. Unlike the Braves, the Phils have been getting better pitching most recently but again, I just can not fade these red hot Atlanta hitters right now. That said, I do expect the Phillies to stay hot also and that means this one should get to 9 or more runs rather easily. OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia | |||||||
06-19-23 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - These teams (and these pitchers!) just matched up. Both Smyly and Bido gave up some big runs in that one PLUS there was a lot of hard contact with line drive outs, etc. The results could have been even worse is the point and now these guys face each other again and those same lineups are getting another quick look at them. I am looking for plenty of runs on a warm evening in Pittsburgh. Also, the Pirates struggled on the road but are now back home where they are a different team. The Cubs 6 of last 7 games have totaled at least 9 runs. Chicago has averaged 7.3 runs per game last 6 games. The bullpens rank 23rd and 24th this season for the Pirates and Cubs this season and should help our cause here as well. OVER 9 in Pittsburgh | |||||||
06-19-23 | Blue Jays -152 v. Marlins | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -152 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Monday Toronto Blue Jays -150 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Berrios has allowed only 11 earned runs in his last 8 starts and those outings have spanned 51 innings of work. Known for some road struggles throughout his career, he has been solid both at home and on the road during this red hot run. Action on pitchers here as I am not overly concerned with whether Bryan Hoeing gets the start or if this is more of a bullpen game for Miami. The Blue Jays and Marlins look similar this season in a lot of categories but yet I look up and down these lineups and I still like the road team much more. Looking at on-base percentage the Jays rank 5th in majors while Miami is 15th. Both teams have been strong in interleague action this season but the Marlins have seen their winning streaks ended at 4 games on 3 of 4 occasions thus far. They do enter this one on a 4-game run. The Blue Jays are off B2B losses and 5 of 7 times this season when they enter a game on a 2-game losing streak they snapped it in the next game. Also, the Jays are off an 11-7 loss to the Rangers and are a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they entered a game off a loss in which they allowed at least 9 runs. Bounce back spot here makes it 6-0 last 6. Toronto -150 | |||||||
06-18-23 | White Sox v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Sunday OVER 8 in Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game went 11 innings. This taxed both bullpens for sure. Additionally the teams combined for 5 of 32 with runners in scoring position! That is a disgusting lack of clutch hits and I am sure today's game will play out much differently after yesterday's total (7 runs) pushed for most totals players. Lance Lynn expected to start for the White Sox here and he is 1-3 with a 10.54 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season. He is struggling overall and Seattle can hit well at home. The Mariners also have a pitching concern here as Bryce Miller is off a strong start but he had been hammered in his two starts leading into that one. The White Sox have hit a little bit better last 4 games and both Chicago and Seattle should do better in clutch situations here after struggling yesterday in the 4-3 extra innings White Sox win. The Mariners have averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 7 games and will bounce back after yesterday's disappointing home loss was filled with wasted opportunities. Lynn should get rocked and the ChiSox bullpen has weaknesses too. The Mariners bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack for bullpen WHIP while Chicago's bullpen ERA ranks them as one of the worst in the majors. This total just too low considering all of the above factors. 10* OVER 8 in Seattle | |||||||
06-18-23 | Phillies v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
MLB Sunday OVER 7.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers because the last time Hogan Harris pitched it was following an opener. The A's may change their mind and elect to do the same here. Yesterday's game went 12 innings. This taxed both bullpens for sure. Additionally the teams combined for 3 of 32 with runners in scoring position! That is a disgusting lack of clutch hits and I am sure today's game will play out much differently. Harris has not been getting many strikeouts but is off a long, successful outing versus the Rays. This was surprising and he had more walks than strikeouts in his only start this season. Also, in his first appearance of this season he struggled badly. Overall, he is a little over-valued right now as he does not get many K's and plus could struggle here coming off such a long outing. As for Zack Wheeler, he certainly is a great pitcher but he tends to be much stronger at home since coming to the Phillies. This has been a trend every season with Philly and he is off a strong road start but this followed struggling in 4 of his first 6 starts away from home this season. Oakland has been playing better of late and the Phillies are red hot so we'll see more clutch hitting and a lot of runs here. This total just too low the way I see it. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland | |||||||
06-17-23 | Angels -165 v. Royals | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -165 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Saturday MLB Los Angeles Angels Money Line -165 @ Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - The Angels won yesterday's game 3-0. The Royals continue to be an absolute disaster this season. Kansas City has lost 10 straight games and they are 9-27 at home and 8-37 against teams with a winning record. Opponents are hitting .299 against Mike Mayers this season plus this 8-year veteran has a 5.10 ERA in his MLB career. The Angels counter with Griffin Canning and he has allowed just 7 earned runs in 24 innings over his last 4 starts so he has settled in nicely. He is facing a KC team that has lost 20 of last 24 games and scored just 2.5 runs per game in last 14 losses. The Royals will be just no match here for an LA team that has won 10 of 12 games and scored 5.4 runs per game last 11 games. Look for a road rout here given all the above. The Royals have lost 10 in a row so this is a play against situation going for 11-0 in terms of fading Kansas City. Lay the road price here. LOS ANGELES ANGELS -165 | |||||||
06-17-23 | Phillies v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:07 ET - I know we lost with this play here yesterday but I will come right back with it today. Walker surprised me with a strong start yesterday but I expect Christopher Sanchez to get hit hard here. He certainly was not overly impressive in the minor this season nor has he ever really been. Sanchez has a 4.36 ERA in his career in the minors. Also, he has a 5.53 ERA at the MLB level. I know Oakland struggled yesterday but the Athletics had finally been playing better baseball the past two weeks and hotter hitting had been a part of it. As for the Phillies bats, they have been hot too and that has helped lead the way to a strong stretch for them the past two weeks as well. I am expecting them to enjoy success against James Kaprielian in this one. Kaprielian has a 2-6 record and a 6.89 ERA on the season and he is 0-4 in day games this season. Without a shadow of a doubt, he certainly has not been overly dominant and the red hot Philly sticks will take advantage. The Phillies are 11-2 last 13 games and have scored an average of 6 runs last 14 games. Oakland, before yesterday's dud, had scored an average of 5 runs last 11 games and they went 7-2 in those 9 games. So both teams have extra confidence at the plate right now and we have a value total of 9 on this one. The A's are off a 4-3 loss and 6-1 loss but this was preceded by 7 of last 11 games totaling at least 9 runs and I feel certain this one will get to that mark as well and eventually land in double digits. 10* OVER 9 in Oakland | |||||||
06-16-23 | Phillies v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 9:40 ET - I know the Phillies Taijuan Walker is off B2B strong starts but those were both at home. Note that Walker has gone just 3-3 with a 6.75 ERA on the road this season. Opponents are hitting nearly .300 against Walker when he is on the road. The Athletics have finally been playing better baseball the past two weeks and hotter hitting has been a part of it. As for the Phillies bats, they have been hot too and that has helped lead the way to a strong stretch for them the past two weeks as well. I am expecting them to enjoy success against JP Sears in this one. Sears has decent numbers on the season but he did allow 6 hits in 5 innings in most recent start. The start before that he walked 5 in 4 and 2/3 innings! The two starts prior to that combined for just 3 strikeouts in 11 innings so he certainly has not been overly dominant and the red hot Philly sticks will take advantage. The Phillies are 10-2 last 12 games and have scored an average of 6 runs last 13 games. Oakland has scored an average of 5 runs last 11 games and they are 7-2 last 9 games. So both teams have extra confidence at the plate right now and we have a value total of 8.5 on this one. The A's are off a 4-3 loss but this was preceded by 7 of last 11 games totaling at least 9 runs and I feel certain this one will get to that mark as well. 10* OVER 8.5 in Oakland | |||||||
06-15-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:40 ET - Phillies have been a streaky team this season and right now they are again in one of those hot zones. While I certainly respect Arizona, when you look at their lineup it is much weaker at the bottom than the Phillies. This Philadelphia team is stronger 1 through 9 - definitely the deeper lineup. Also, they rested Alec Bohm yesterday and he should be back in that potent lineup today. The Phillies have won 9 of 11 games and have scored an average of 6 runs last dozen games. Nola is off a tougher start versus a strong Dodgers team but he still has allowed a total of only 54 hits in the 72 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 11 starts. Nola has looked a lot like vintage Nola for much of this long stretch since a rough start in his first 3 outings of the season. Ryne Nelson gets the call for the Diamondbacks here and he has a 6.62 ERA in his 7 homes starts this season and a 1.70 WHIP in those outings. Walks have been a significant issue in his recent home starts and the Phillies have the potent lineup to make him pay. Diamondbacks have now lost 4 of last 5 at home and the Phillies are well worth the short road money line price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 | |||||||
06-14-23 | Rays -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -155 @ Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 ET - I know Oakland has won 7 straight games but it is ending here in a big way. Glasnow is 17-4 since the 2019 season and has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when he is healthy. He certainly looks healthy now as Glasnow has progressively gotten better in each of his 3 starts since coming back from injury. So here you have an expected match-up of Glasnow, 4 losses since 2019, versus Luis Medina who has 5 losses this season alone! Medina is 1-5 with a 7.53 ERA and I also like the fact that 36 of 48 Rays wins by at least 2 run margin this season. 39 of 50 Oakland losses by at least a 2-run margin. The value, even at the -155 price range, is on the run line in this one in what should play out as a road rout here. TAMPA BAY -1.5 -155 | |||||||
06-14-23 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - Yes, yesterday's game totaled 13 runs but had 5 runs scored in extra innings. That is one way to look at it but another is that it was 4-4 through 6 innings. So it was not necessarily a lucky over and I feel Wednesday's will leave no doubt. Gomber is struggling badly for the Rockies and he has a 7.57 ERA this season after a 5.56 ERA last season. Whitlock has been getting hit hard for the Red Sox and that includes his most recent home start too. Also, Whitlock has a 6.46 ERA in his 3 night starts this season and has bene hit at a .354 clip in those starts. Look for him to struggle here and the Red Sox bullpen has been only mediocre this season and the Rockies bullpen has struggled this season. The Rockies have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of last 12 games and of course the Red Sox are a big favorite here for a reason. Boston is hitting .286 at home this season and that ranks 2nd in the majors. The Red Sox average 5.7 runs per game at hone on the year. More of the same here. OVER 9.5 in Boston | |||||||
06-14-23 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday OVER 9 or 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - The Royals have lost 8 straight games but do tend to hit better at home. Also, there is no way I am trusting Lively on the road for the Reds. He is having a disastrous June so far. Also, the Royals Lynch is recently back in the rotation and he is normally solid but has been hit quite hard this month. This one shapes up well for plenty of runs as the Royals bullpen is one of the worst in the league and the Reds bullpen is only a middle of the pack type pen so far this season. Also, Cincinnati enters this one hitting .260 on the road which is 4th in majors. KC has a .403 slugging percentage at home and that respectably ranks them in the middle of the pack. 21 of Royals last 32 home games have totaled at least 9 runs and so expecting this one to get to double digits is certainly not asking too much. Especially true when considering that Reds 22 of last 31 games overall have totaled at least 9 runs. OVER 9 or 9.5 in Kansas City | |||||||
06-13-23 | Rays v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 9:40 ET - The Athletics have shockingly won 6 straight games but I don't trust them to get another win here but also would not want to fade a 6-game winning streak either. What I am forecasting here is plenty of hitting here. This is regardless of the pitching match-up but do not that both Harris and Beeks have unimpressive numbers. In terms of the hitting here, Oakland has averaged 6 runs scored per game in their last 8 games and Tampa Bay has been one of the best hitting teams in baseball all season long and averaged about 6 runs scored per game on the season. The over is the play here as Rays were 9-2 last 11 games before yesterday's loss and did average scoring 5 runs per game during that stretch. Two hot teams at the plate and a rather low total. We'll take it! OVER 8.5 in Oakland | |||||||
06-13-23 | Phillies -123 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies -125 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Phillies lost a tight one yesterday and should bounce right back here. Philadelphia had been hot with wins in 7 of last 8 games. Also, Philly bounce back from most recent loss and also has won each of last two times they were off a loss by a margin of 1 run. The Phillies are expected to start Wheeler here and he has dominated in 2 of last 3 starts. Also, they welcomed Bohm back to the lineup and the and the Phillies pounded the ball in yesterday's slim defeat. The Diamondbacks are expected to start Davies here and he has struggled at home this season with opponents hitting .321 against him in Arizona where he has a 6.75 ERA thusfar. Regardless of starting pitchers, look for the road team to bounce back here at a very fair price. PHILADELPHIA -125 | |||||||
06-13-23 | Marlins v. Mariners OVER 7 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday OVER 7 in Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins @ 9:40 ET - First off this is a low total and I like the over regardless of starting pitchers. However, George Kirby is expected to go and he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 outings. Simply put, he has not looked like the Kirby we are use to seeing. As for the Marlins Edward Cabrera, he is 5-0 at home but 0-4 on the road and he has a 5.91 ERA away from home with an ugly 1.53 WHIP. Miami had just one hit in yesterday's game but this was preceded by a 13-4 run in which they averaged 5.6 runs per game. The Mariners were struggling in the run-scoring department on the road but are now back home and, after yesterday's 8-1 win, are averaging 5 runs scored last 11 home games. Overall, 10 of last 13 Mariners games have totaled at least 8 runs and those 10 games averaged 12.4 runs per game. Just get half that here and we are almost there but certainly we should see much more and this one would not surprise me to double digits. OVER 7 in Seattle | |||||||
06-12-23 | Phillies +100 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +100 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. This is essentially a bullpen game for the Phillies as starter Matt Strahm likely to go just a few innings here. He has been solid in most of his outings this season whether as a starter or out of the bullpen. Also, the Phillies bullpen has been much stronger for quite some time now after an unexpected rough start to the season. The Diamondbacks starter is expected to be Tommy Henry here. He has made 9 appearances this season and one of them was a stellar performance but, in the other 8 Henry has a 5.17 ERA. Last year, in his rookie season, Henry had a 5.36 ERA. So, the point is, there is little reason to expect success for him here and the Phillies have been red hot. I know the Diamondbacks have been hot too but it has been other starting pitchers that have helped lead the way. This is not a good set up with Henry on the mound and I look for the Phillies to take full advantage. 10* PHILADELPHIA +100 | |||||||
06-11-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Yankees are 8-5 last 13 games and have scored an average of 6 runs in the 8 wins. Red Sox have not been scoring as well but still have averaged 4 runs per game last dozen games. We have a low total to work with here and the Yankees Schmidt is 1-5 at home this season plus has an overall 4.96 ERA this season. Boston's Bellos is 5-12 in his MLB career plus the Yankees saw him twice last season. He has a low ERA versus the Yankees but has given up 12 hits in 11 innings against him. The Yankees should hit Bello hard and I look for the Red Sox to get to Schmidt also. The first two games in this series have been dead unders but a lot of that had to do with some solid pitchers on the mound. This one sets up much differently. 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees | |||||||
06-11-23 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 105 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 or 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:05 ET - I know the current number on this one, as of 9:30 AM ET, is still a 9 but I would not be surprised to see some 8.5 start showing up. Either way, this is a play for me. Only 1 team out of all 30 had more than 12 hits yesterday. That was this Mariners team and they piled up 16 hits! Even with that the game stayed under the total as it was a 6-2 win for Seattle. That said, I look for this one to make up for that. I know Gilbert and Canning have some solid numbers but, prior to yesterday, 8 of last 12 Mariners games had totaled at least 9 runs. In fact, those 8 games averaged 14 runs and I like our chances of a wild one here. The Angels, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 7 of 11 games and scored an average of 5 runs during this stretch. We'll see runs here as the Angels had won 5 in a row before yesterday's loss and the Mariners had 6 runs on 16 hits yesterday. 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Los Angeles Angels | |||||||
06-10-23 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Saturday OVER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - Move quickly on this to get a 9 as the line very well could end up on the move to a 9.5 and 9 is, of course, a key number with MLB totals. It looked more like a Steelers/Jets final score (14 to 7) yesterday rather than a Pirates/Mets game but we should see another wild one today. The fact is that Kodai Senga has struggled much more on the road than at home and the Pirates Johan Oviedo had struggled for most of his last 6 starts before coming up with a rare strong outing versus league-worst Oakland in his most recent start. From a pitching standpoint the set up here is perfect. Additionally, the Mets last 5 games have all totaled double digits in runs and 8 of the Pirates last 11 games have totaled at least 9 runs. This one sets up well to be another slugfest. OVER 9 in Pittsburgh | |||||||
06-10-23 | Dodgers v. Phillies -103 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:05 ET - The Phillies have won 6 straight games. They are 18-10 at home this season and were very strong at home as last season went along too and this helped lead them to the World Series. Speaking of being strong at home, Aaron Nola has fantastic long-term stats pitching in Philly. He loves pitching at home and is 42-18 at home dating back to the 2017 season. A 70% win rate over a span of 7 season is pretty damn good and Nola keeps it rolling here. Bobby Miller gets the start for the Dodgers here and the rookie has been surprisingly strong so far though it has been in limited action - 3 starts this season. Lets not forget he had a 5.65 ERA in the minors this season and also a 4.25 ERA in all minor league action last season. This could be a tougher start for him here with Philly so strong at home and also a red hot team right now loaded with confidence at the plate. One of the reasons the Dodgers have not been as strong this season is the bullpen and that is weakness of theirs this season. Conversely, the Phillies bullpen started the season sluggish but has been really hot ever since and continues to move up in the bullpen rankings week by week. PHILADELPHIA -105 | |||||||
06-09-23 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Friday OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:40 ET - Move quickly on this to get an 11 as the line is on the move and 11 is, of course, a key number with MLB totals at hitter-friendly parks like Coors Field. The fact is that Darvish has struggled much more on the road than at home the past 3 seasons and the Rockies Gomber has struggled much more at home than on the road this season. Gomber has an 8.64 ERA in his 7 starts at Coors Field. From a pitching standpoint the set up here is perfect. Additionally, the Padres have scored well in 10 of their last 16 games. Given the set up here, this should be one of those strong games at the plate at a hitter-friendly park and note that they scored 7.4 runs per game in those 10 games. 5 of the Rockies last 8 home games have been very high-scoring and, overall, those 8 home games have averaged 13 runs per game. This one sets up well to be a slugfest that finishes in that range as well. OVER 11 in Colorado | |||||||
06-09-23 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Friday OVER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - Move quickly on this to get a 9 as the line is on the move and 9 is, of course, a key number with MLB totals. The fact is that Megill has struggled much more on the road than at home and the Pirates Hill has struggled much more at home than on the road. From a pitching standpoint the set up here is perfect. Additionally, the Mets last 4 games have all totaled double digits in runs and 7 of the Pirates last 10 games have totaled at least 9 runs. This one sets up well to be a slugfest. OVER 9 in Pittsburgh | |||||||
06-08-23 | Cubs v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs @ 9:35 ET - Detmers is 0-5 with a 5.15 ERA this season. Smyly has allowed 8 earned runs on 14 hits in 10 innings over his last two starts. Both the Angels and Cubs have hit lefties well this season. I know that lately the Cubs have not been scoring many runs but this looks like the right spot for a breakout game on offense. The Angels will pick up right where they left off in yesterday's 6-2 win. LA has scored 13 runs so far in the first two games of this series. The Cubs Smyly had an ERA about 2 runs higher on the road than at home and about 2.5 runs higher in night games than day games when you look at his numbers from last season. That said, Angels stay hot but Cubs get going here too as Detmers struggles continue. 10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels | |||||||
06-08-23 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
NOTE: This game was originally going to go Wednesday but postponed by the air quality issues due to smoke in the northeast from the Canadian wildfires. I still like this play the same for Thursday and now Tyler Holton most likely will start. He has had success out of the bullpen for the Tigers but he struggled as a starter at the minor league level. Maybe Reese Olson will provide relief here too. Either way, the Tigers pitcher today is an unproven guy and the Phillies have big edge at home per ORIGINAL WRITE-UP: MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -120 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Philadelphia is off 4 straight wins and plus their bats exploded Sunday and Monday so after yesterday's 1-0 win I look for the bats to wake back up today for Philly tonight. They can carry momentum from those earlier blowout wins (19 runs in 2 games) right into this game Wednesday. Tigers have lost 7 of 8 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 8 games. The Phillies outhit Detroit 11-3 Monday and then the Tigers again had just 3 hits yesterday. The Phillies have scored 6 runs per game last 5 games and the first 3 of those were on the road. In last 7 home games, Phillies have averaged 5 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out yet again. The Tigers are starting Reese Olson and he is a great story and had a surprisingly strong first start for Detroit in his MLB debut after making some adjustments in the minors. Trust me the Phillies watched what the White Sox did (and did not!) do against him in his MLB debut and will make the right adjustments here. As for Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler, he has a great long-term history in starts at Citizens Bank Park and I expect a strong outing from him. More of the same Tigers' struggles at the plate here in another Phillies home win. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -120 | |||||||
06-07-23 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals are expected to start Patrick Corbin here. He is struggling again after a rare decent stretch. Corbin has now allowed 36 hits in 29 innings over his last 5 starts. Also, the lefty has given up 10 runs (9 earned) while walking 8 in 11 innings over his last 2 starts. Long-term he has horrible numbers in recent years. Corbin entered this season 17-42 last 3 seasons with a very high ERA each season. The Diamondbacks starter is also a concern here in this one. Zach Davies is expected to get the call here for Arizona and he has struggled since he returned from injury. Davies has allowed 12 hits in 9 innings and is lucky the damage has not been even worse (in terms of earned runs allowed) since he returned from injury late last month. I am looking for the Nationals to hit him well here at home. Davies is a 3-8 with an ERA around 5.00 in his road starts in 2021 and 2022 combined and now this is just his 2nd road start of this season. Washington is decent at home where they have scored an average of 5 runs in their last 10 games. The Diamondbacks have been one of the better teams in the league this season in terms of hitting on the road as their .424 slugging percentage away from home ranks them 7th in the league. Also, Arizona is averaging 5.33 runs per game on the road this season. Just like yesterday's 10-5 game, I would not be surprised to see each team get to at least 5 runs in this one and that would of course mean double digits in runs here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington |
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