10-14-17 |
Purdue v. Wisconsin UNDER 51.5 | | 9-17 |
Win | 100 | 108 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PUR@WISC to go UNDER the total.
Wisconsin hasn't been tested, and the Badgers are a big favorite at home versus Purdue this weekend. The Boilermakers will face one of the nation's top defenses, as Wisconsin is allowing opponents to average less than 15 points per game. Purdue has averaged less than 10 points in it's last four games at Wisconsin dating back to 2009. The weather forecast calls for cold temperatures and rain in Madison Saturday afternoon. Purdue is quietly having a solid season so far, coming in with a 3-2 record and a defense that has allowed just over 20 points per game. The Badgers have failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 games in the month of October, and a lot of that might have to do with the fall weather in Madison. I expect both teams to keep it conservative here, and we should see another low scoring game.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-14-17 |
Texas Tech v. West Virginia -4.5 | | 35-46 |
Win | 100 | 132 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the West Virginia Mountaineers. The West Virginia Mountaineers aren't getting a lot of respect here at home versus Texas Tech. After all this is a team that they trounced by a score of 48-17 last year, and that game was at Lubbock. With the Red Raiders coming to Morgantown, I see no reason why the result will be any different. Sure Texas Tech has improved defensively, but they still lost 41-34 at home to Oklahoma State two weeks ago. Their offense doesn't appear to be quite as prolific as it was with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Nic Shimonek threw for 330 yards with 1 TD and an INT on 29-of-46 passing in the loss to the Cowboys. That was a home game, and now he's playing on the road against a far better defense in West Virginia. The Red Raiders lost 31-26 in their last game at Morgantown (back in 2015). Texas Tech might look like a sexy pick as a dog, but keep in mind that the Red Raiders have lost 16 straight versus Top 25 teams. Take WVU. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-14-17 |
Texas Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 80 | | 35-46 |
Loss | -110 | 83 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TTU@WVU to go UNDER the total. The West Virginia Mountaineers aren't getting a lot of respect here at home versus Texas Tech. After all this is a team that they trounced by a score of 48-17 last year, and that game was at Lubbock. With the Red Raiders coming to Morgantown, I see no reason why the result will be any different. Sure Texas Tech has improved defensively, but they still lost 41-34 at home to Oklahoma State two weeks ago. Their offense doesn't appear to be quite as prolific as it was with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Nic Shimonek threw for 330 yards with 1 TD and an INT on 29-of-46 passing in the loss to the Cowboys. That was a home game, and now he's playing on the road against a far better defense in West Virginia. The Red Raiders lost 31-26 in their last game at Morgantown (back in 2015). Texas Tech might look like a sexy pick as a dog, but keep in mind that the Red Raiders have lost 16 straight versus Top 25 teams. The under is 12-2 in West Virginia's last 14 games in October.
Take Under.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-14-17 |
NC State v. Pittsburgh UNDER 54 | | 35-17 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NCST@PIT to go UNDER the total. Pittsburgh's Homecoming game against the Wolfpack looks tough. The Panthers lost starting quarterback Max Browne for the season, and backup Ben Dincucci hasn't looked great at all. The sophomore has completed just 55 percent of his passes for 422 yards with two TDs and two INTs. He's going up against one of the top defensive lines in the country, and adding insult to injury, their leading rusher is also suspended indefinitely. This looks like it could be a defensive battle, as the Wolfpack have gone under in eight straight against ACC teams, and Pittsburgh has failed to reach the total in six of it's last seven overall. The Panthers have lost to Syracuse, Georgia Tech and Penn State, but none of those games saw enough combined points to reach the total listed for this week's game against the Wolfpack. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-13-17 |
Clemson v. Syracuse +24 | Top | 24-27 |
Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Syracuse Orange. Clemson opened as a 21 point favorite, but public money has pushed this line up several points during the week. It might be tough for the defending champions to get up for this game, and it could be a spot where they get caught looking ahead with Georgia Tech and NC State coming up in the next few weeks. The status of starting quarterback Kelly Bryant had been in question, but he is expected to start despite suffering from an ankle injury. We might expect the injury to discourage him from running the ball, and his passing numbers have been rather pedestrian. He's thrown just four TD passes and four INTs in six starts. Syracuse is 3-3, and all three losses have come by single digits. They lost 35-26 at LSU, and 33-25 at N.C. State. The Orange are 3-1 at home, and their last home game versus Clemson was a 37-27 loss back in 2015. Eric Dungey ranks among the nation's leading passers, with 1802 yards, nine TDs and four INTs. He's proven to be quite capable of padding his stats in garbage time, which might be exactly what is required to get a back door cover. Take SYR. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-11-17 |
South Alabama v. Troy UNDER 50 | | 19-8 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on USA@TROY to go UNDER the total. The Troy Trojans are coming off a shocking 24-21 upset win over LSU. They will have to try to avoid a let down here at home against a tough conference rival Wednesday. These teams have played some close games over the years, and four of their last five head to head meetings have failed to reach a combined 50 points. Both teams favor the ground game over an air attack, and we should see a gritty, low scoring battle in Alabama. Troy has a great defense, ranking 24th nationally allowing just 18.6 points per game. The under is 15-5-1 in the Trojans last 21 games overall. Even more telling is the fact that they have only gone over in one of their last 12 versus conference rivals. The Jaguars are trending in the same direction, coming off four straight games that failed to reach the total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-07-17 |
Stanford v. Utah +7 | | 23-20 |
Win | 100 | 131 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on the Utah Utes.
The 4-0 Utah Utes host Stanford Saturday, and the 3-2 Cardinal are asked to cover a bunch of points as a road favorite. This appears to be a tough ask, especially because this Utah defense is designed to stop the run. The Utes rank 5th nationally allowing opponents to average just 87 rushing yards per game. This has historically been a tough matchup for Stanford, despite being heavily favored in every game, they have lost four of their last five versus Utah. Stanford has played twice on the road, losing at San Diego State and USC. In the loss to the Trojans, they allowed USC to run for over 300 yards. Utah is 5-1 ATS in it's last six conference games, and 5-2 ATS in it's last seven home games. I'll take the home dog plus the points.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-07-17 |
Washington State -2.5 v. Oregon | | 33-10 |
Win | 100 | 141 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Washington State. If you were thinking that the Cougars are in a let down spot coming off their biggest ever win over USC, think again. This team is solid on both sides of the ball, and they have a favorable matchup here in Oregon against a one-dimensional Ducks team. The Ducks defense is still well below average, they've given up 26 points per game despite facing five unranked teams. They almost blew a big lead in a 42-35 home win over Nebraska. Losing starting quarterback Justin Herbert with a broken collarbone really hurts, as backup Taylor Alie was just 9-of-13 for 41 yards and an INT when he came in to replace him against Cal. The Cougars have covered the spread in seven straight versus Oregon, winning outright in each of the last two seasons. Take WAZZU. GL. Jesse Schule |
10-07-17 |
Arizona v. Colorado UNDER 59 | | 45-42 |
Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on ARI@COL to go UNDER the total 1/H.
The Colorado Buffaloes went to the PAC12 Championship Game last seasons, but they are coming off back to back losses to UCLA and Washington. Unlike last year, they don't seem to have the offensive firepower to keep up with the top tier teams in the PAC12. They have averaged fewer than 20 points while losing two of three games in conference play. The same issue has plagued Arizona, as the Wildcats are coming off a 30-24 home loss to Utah. Their other loss came by a score of 19-16 at home versus Houston. Neither of these teams have been lighting it up with their passing game, and it's expected that this game will be a battle of ground and pound. With both teams focused on running the ball, the time will likely come off the clock before they can tally too many points. Colorado has gone under in seven of it's last eight overall, and 13 of it's last 16 in conference play.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-05-17 |
Louisville v. NC State UNDER 67 | | 25-39 |
Win | 100 | 38 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LOU@NCSTATE to go UNDER the total. The Wolfpack were crushed in a 54-14 loss at Louisville last year, and they will have a chance to avenge that loss here at home on Thursday night. Louisville averaged over 60 points per game in their first four games of last season, but their offense hasn't been nearly as explosive so far this year. They have failed to score 30 points in their last three games at Raleigh. Two of those three games went under the total, and not one of those games saw more than a combined 55 points. The total for tonight's game has been bet up several points since opening at 63, and I think that's a pretty high number when you consider that NC. State is vastly improved on defense. The Wolfpack have gone under in seven straight versus conference rivals, and the under is 16-1-1 in their last 18 games on a Thursday. Last week NC State ran the ball for 256 yards and three TDs, and they should find plenty of room to run here in this game. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-30-17 |
Clemson v. Virginia Tech UNDER 52 | Top | 31-17 |
Win | 100 | 117 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEM@VT to go UNDER the total. The Clemson Tigers are a heavy favorite on the road at Virginia Tech this week, and I expect this to be a low scoring battle between two solid defensive teams. Clemson's defense has been impressive, ranking 3rd nationally, allowing opponents to average just over nine points per game. Virginia Tech ranks 6th nationally, allowing just over 10 points per game. The Hokies have outscored opponents 65-0 in two home games so far. Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant hasn't played poorly, but his stats aren't all that impressive. He's thrown for 873 yards and has completed 68 percent of his passes, but has just two TDs and three picks in four games. Freshman Josh Jackson has put up far more impressive numbers for the Hokies, but hasn't yet faced an opponent like Clemson. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, with six of the last eight meetings going under the total. The Hokies have only scored an average of 16.25 point in their last four games against Clemson, and I doubt they manage much better than that here this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-30-17 |
Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech UNDER 84.5 | | 41-34 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
|
09-30-17 |
Arizona State v. Stanford OVER 63 | | 24-34 |
Loss | -110 | 84 h 16 m | Show |
|
09-30-17 |
Syracuse v. NC State UNDER 65.5 | | 25-33 |
Win | 100 | 72 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SYR@NCST to go UNDER the total. The Wolfpack might be in a let down spot here coming off a huge road win at Florida State. The bookmakers are expecting a shootout, setting the total in the mid sixties. While the Orange run a pass happy offense that often results in high scoring games, I don't think it's going to be very effective against this stout Wolfpack defensive line. NC State has gone under in six straight versus ACC teams, while the Orange have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven in conference play. Four of the last five head to head meetings have gone under, and the total for this game is far higher than it was in any of those five previous matchups. Syracuse scored just three first half points on the road at LSU last week. I think this number is simply way too high. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-29-17 |
Miami-FL v. Duke +7 | | 31-6 |
Loss | -125 | 88 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils.
The Blue Devils have a history of playing tough games against ACC rivals Miami. They are getting a bunch of points as the home dog on Friday night, and this is an ultimate revenge spot for the Blue Devils. Some of you may or may not remember that the last time the Hurricanes came to town, they left with a controversial victory that resulted in an ACC officiating crew suspended. Miami miraculously returned a kickoff on the final play of the game, but replays showed that multiple infractions should have been called, which would have nullified the game winning score. Duke appears to be well equipped to execute revenge, coming off three straight wins over Power 5 teams. Wins over UNC, Northwestern and Baylor all came by double digits. Miami is also undefeated, and the fact that the Hurricanes have won nine of the last 10 meetings between these schools has a lot to do with the big line here. Miami looked a little shaky at home in a win over Toledo. The Hurricanes trailed at the half, and Toledo quarterback Logan Woodside threw for 342 yards and three TDs on 28-of-48 passing. Duke is 6-0 ATS in it's last six home games, and I'll take the Blue Devils plus the points here.
Take DUKE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-23-17 |
Notre Dame v. Michigan State UNDER 54 | Top | 38-18 |
Loss | -110 | 120 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ND@MSU to go UNDER the total. The Irish will be looking for revenge when they travel to East Lansing this Saturday. The Spartans won at South Bend last year by a score of 36-28. That was an uncharacteristically high scoring tilt between these two teams, going way over the listed total of 50. Four of the previous six games between these teams have gone under, and the total for this year's game is higher than it has been in any of the eight meetings over the last 10 years. Last season's Notre Dame squad was brutal defensively, but this year they've looked much better, allowing just over 18 points per game so far. They came up just short in a 20-19 home loss to Georgia, and I expect this game to yield a similar low score. Neither team does anything flashy on offense, and both teams are capable of grinding out wins with their defense. Sparty has failed to reach the total in six of it's last seven non-conference games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-23-17 |
Michigan v. Purdue UNDER 52 | | 28-10 |
Win | 100 | 103 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICH@PUR to go UNDER the total. The Wolverines have been impressive on defense during their 3-0 start, but poor quarterback play and a below average offense has prevented them from blowing out inferior opponents. They have averaged just 33 points per game, despite playing two of three games at home against unranked opponents (Cincinnati and Air Force). Playing Purdue on the road could prove to be a challenge for Michigan, and some experts even have them on upset alert. Purdue is off to a great start, and their defense has been impressive. The Boilermakers pushed Louisville to the brink in a 35-28 Week 1 loss, and then went on to win back to back games by 20+ points. These teams have played three times since 2010, and two of those three games failed to reach the total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-23-17 |
TCU v. Oklahoma State UNDER 71.5 | | 44-31 |
Loss | -110 | 61 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on TCU@OKST UNDER. There has been a lot of line movement in this game between BIG12 rivals TCU and Oklahoma State. The public is betting heavy on the Cowboys and the over, and I think this presents value with a contrarian play. TCU looks like a team that has improved a lot since losing by a score of 31-6 at home to the Cowboys last year. These teams have met every year since 2012, and four of those five games failed to reach the total. Not one of the last 10 meetings between these two teams has seen a combined 70 points. Mason Rudolph has been putting up video game numbers so far, but the last time he faced TCU he threw for just 207 yards and a TD on 17-of-34 passing. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-23-17 |
NC State v. Florida State UNDER 51 | | 27-21 |
Win | 100 | 99 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NCST@FSU to go UNDER the total.
The Wolfpack out-gained South Carolina 504-246 total yards in Week 1, but found a way to lose that game. They have been solid defending the run, allowing just 2.8 yards per carry and 1 TD in three games. Florida State will want to lean on it's running game here, as they will be starting a true freshman at quarterback. James Blackman will take over for the injured DeAndre Fancois. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, failing to reach the total in five of the last seven meetings. The Seminoles beat the Wolfpack last year by a score of 24-20 at Raleigh, and they won by a score of 34-17 at home in 2015. The Wolfpack have gone under in five straight against ACC teams, while FSU has failed to reach the total in seven of it's last 10 overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-23-17 |
Texas Tech v. Houston UNDER 72 | | 27-24 |
Win | 100 | 98 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TTU@HOU to go UNDER the total.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are one of the highest scoring teams in the country. They come into Houston ranked #1 in passing, averaging just shy of 400 yards per game. Houston though owns one of the top defenses in the country, allowing opponents to average less than 10 points per game so far. Texas Tech has a history of struggling against the tougher teams, and I don't think they can pile on the points here in Houston. The Cougars held the Wildcats to just 16 points in Arizona two weeks ago, and they have a history of shutting down high powered offenses. Last year they faced two ranked teams, and won both of those games. They held #3 ranked Oklahoma to just 23 points, and #5 ranked Louisville scored just 10 points in a loss at Houston. The Cougars have gone under in four straight at home, and seven of their last eight overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-22-17 |
Utah v. Arizona UNDER 60.5 | | 30-24 |
Win | 100 | 87 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UTAH@ARI to go UNDER the total. The Utes defeated Arizona at home by a score of 36-23 last season, and that game went over the total of 53. Three of the previous four meetings between these two teams have failed to reach the total, and only one of the last 10 meetings have seen over 60 points scored. The Wildcats have proven that they can run up the score against inferior teams, scoring 60+ points in wins over Northern Arizona and UTEP. They didn't fare quite as well in a 19-16 home loss to Houston. The Utes are similar to Houston in that they should be suited to slow down Arizona's high powered running game. The under is 17-7-1 in Utah's last 25 games versus teams above .500. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-16-17 |
Clemson -155 v. Louisville | Top | 47-21 |
Win | 100 | 128 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Clemson Tigers. The Louisville Cardinals got off to a great start last season, winning their first four games in blowout fashion. Their fifth game was 42-36 loss at Clemson, and they will have a chance to avenge that loss here this Saturday. 2016 Heisman winner Lamar Jackson looks even better in 2017, but unfortunately for Louisville, that can't be said for the rest of the team. They just barely escaped with a 35-28 win at Purdue in Week 1, and then they trailed in the fourth quarter of last week's win over North Carolina. Clemson on the other hand hasn't allowed a touchdown in two games so far. They held Auburn to a pair of field goals in a 14-6 win at home last week. Junior quarterback Kelly Bryant has impressed so far, and the offense looks to be in good shape despite losing Deshaun Watson to the NFL Draft. I believe Clemson has what it takes to repeat as champions, while it looks like Louisville has taken a step back. The Cardinals have been notoriously overrated, evidenced by the fact that they are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, and 1-5 ATS in their last six overall. Take CLEM. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-16-17 |
Kentucky v. South Carolina -4.5 | | 23-13 |
Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on South Carolina. The Gamecocks have upset the apple cart so far this season, winning as an underdog against N.C. State and Missouri. Their defense has been impressive, holding Missouri to just 13 points last week. This will be a revenge game of sorts for South Carolina, hosting the Kentucky Wildcats who have defeated them in three straight seasons. Last year's game was a defensive battle, with Kentucky winning by a score of 17-10. In 2015 the Gamecocks lost at home by a score of 26-22 to Kentucky. To say that the Gamecocks have a history of playing low scoring games within their conference, would be an understatement of epic proportions. The under is 10-1 in South Carolina's last 11 games versus SEC teams.
Take SOCAR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-16-17 |
Kentucky v. South Carolina UNDER 51 | Top | 23-13 |
Win | 100 | 106 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UK@SOCAR to go UNDER the total.
The Gamecocks have upset the apple cart so far this season, winning as an underdog against N.C. State and Missouri. Their defense has been impressive, holding Missouri to just 13 points last week. This will be a revenge game of sorts for South Carolina, hosting the Kentucky Wildcats who have defeated them in three straight seasons. Last year's game was a defensive battle, with Kentucky winning by a score of 17-10. In 2015 the Gamecocks lost at home by a score of 26-22 to Kentucky. To say that the Gamecocks have a history of playing low scoring games within their conference, would be an understatement of epic proportions. The under is 10-1 in South Carolina's last 11 games versus SEC teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-16-17 |
Kansas State v. Vanderbilt UNDER 49 | | 7-14 |
Win | 100 | 106 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KST@VAN to go UNDER the total. The Kansas State Wildcats won nine games last year, and beat Texas A&M by a score of 33-28 in the Texas Bowl. So far this season they look even better, which should be expected as they return most of last year's starters. Senior quarterback Jesse Ertz has thrown for over 500 yards and four TDs, and he's run for 100+ yards and a TD. Bill Snyder's squad plays on the road at Vanderbilt this week, and they are asked to cover a 3.5 point spread. The Commodores ranked 96th in the country in passing last year, averaging fewer than 200 yards per game. Junior quarterback Kyle Shurmur is back, and he's put up decent numbers against Middle Tennessee and Alabama State. I don't expect that to continue here against a stingy Wildcats defense. The Commodores have failed to cover in five straight home games versus teams with a winning record, while the Wildcats have covered in four of their last five non-conference games.The under is 20-7-2 in Vanderbilt's last 29 games overall. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-16-17 |
LSU v. Mississippi State UNDER 52.5 | | 7-37 |
Win | 100 | 105 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LSU@MISST to go UNDER the total.
The Tigers have allowed just 10 points in their first two games of the season, including an impressive 27-0 win over BYU. They will play at Mississippi State this week, and the Bulldogs gave them a scare last year. LSU won, but didn't cover in a 23-20 home victory over Mississippi State in 2016. That game wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate however, as the Bulldogs scored two TDs in the final five minutes. I expect to see a typically defensive battle here between two SEC rivals. The under is 15-5-1 in LSU's last 21 games versus SEC teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-15-17 |
Arizona -23 v. UTEP | | 63-16 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Wildcats. The UTEP Miners do not have a competitive football team this season, and this is clear after they have lost their first two games of the season by a combined 65 points. While you can't fault them for losing to Oklahoma in their opener, last week's home loss to Rice was a pretty poor result. The Owls ran all over the UTEP defense, totaling 306 rushing yards and three rushing TDs. Arizona has a far more potent ground game, ranking 6th nationally in rushing offense. They have averaged 329 yards per game, totaling eight rushing TDs. Arizona might not be the playoff contender that Oklahoma is, but they have all the tools to run up the score on a team like UTEP. The Miners are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games, and they have failed to cover in five of their last seven home games. Take ARI. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-09-17 |
Boise State v. Washington State -10 | | 44-47 |
Loss | -110 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Washington State Cougars 1/H. The Cougars opened the season with a 31-0 shutout win against Montana State, while the Broncos barely escaped with a win against minnows Troy. Quarterback Brad Rypien threw for just 160 yards and an INT on 13-of-23 passing. The Broncos beat the Cougars on the Blue Turf last season, but no thanks to Rypien. He threw three INTs and just one TD, while Luke Falk threw for 480 yards and four TDs in a losing effort. Washington State is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Boise State. I like the Cougars to execute revenge for last year's loss with a comfortable win here at home in Pullman. Take WSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-09-17 |
Stanford +7 v. USC | Top | 24-42 |
Loss | -125 | 142 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal. USC was brutal last season, losing three of their first four games. Sam Darnold took over at quarterback in Week 5 against Arizona State, and the Trojans went on to win their next nine games. There's no doubt that Darnold is a talented player, but perhaps it's a bit premature to award him the Heisman, and crown USC as the champions of the PAC12? He's off to a rather suspect start, looking nothing like a Heisman favorite in Week 1 versus Western Michigan. He threw for just 289 yards and a couple of INTs on 23-of-33 passing. Even more concerning for the Trojans, the defense allowed the Broncos to rack up 263 yards and two TDs on the ground, and the game was tied in the fourth quarter. Stanford whupped the Trojans last season, running for over 300 yards and two TDs in a 27-10 win. Sam Darnod completed five of seven attempts with an INT and no TDs. The Cardinal may no longer have Christian McCaffrey, but they still have a monster offensive line and they looked pretty formidable in their season opener. Bryce Love ran for 180 yards and a TD on just 13 carries in the win over Rice. I expect a "whole lotta Love" here in Pasadena this Saturday. The Trojans are asked to cover seven points in a rivalry game against an opponent that has had their number over the years. Stanford has covered the spread in seven of the last 10 meetings, and during that span USC is 0-4 ATS as a favorite. Take STAN. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-09-17 |
Georgia v. Notre Dame UNDER 55 | | 20-19 |
Win | 100 | 108 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UGA@ND to go UNDER the total.
The Bulldogs lost starting quarterback Jacob Eason early in their season opener versus Appalachian State. Freshman Jake Fromm stepped up and threw for 143 yards and a TD on 10-of-15 passing. Georgia was 8-5 overall last season, and three of their five losses came in games decided by three points or less. They will be getting a generous amount of points here on the road against unranked Notre Dame this week. The Irish only won four games last year, but they beat Temple by a whopping 33 points in their season opener. They did the bulk of their damage with the ground game, running for 422 yards and five TDs on 44 carries. Georgia's defense isn't going to allow the Irish to put up those kind of gaudy numbers, and I expect this to be a gritty defensive battle. The total for this game is lower than it has been in any of Georgia's last 10 games. Only two of those 10 contests saw more than 55 points scored. The Bulldogs have gone under in 13 of their last 16 versus teams with a winning record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-09-17 |
Oklahoma +7.5 v. Ohio State | | 31-16 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners last loss came at home versus Ohio State last season. They've won 11 straight games since, four of those wins coming against ranked teams. The Buckeyes are coming off a shaky game against unranked Indiana, trailing at halftime before kicking things into gear in the second half. The Hoosiers quarterback threw for a whopping 410 yards and three TDs in a losing effort. That seems troubling ahead of this week's game against perhaps the best quarterback in the country. Baker Mayfield is one of the favorites to win the Heisman, and he's coming off an impressive Week 1 performance. He completed 19-of-20 passes for 329 yards and three TDs. Mayfield really only had one bad game last season, and that was the loss to Ohio State. He threw for 226 yards with 2 TDs and 2 INTs on 17-of-32 passing. While you have to give credit to the OSU defense, I am expecting a much better performance from Mayfield here in this revenge spot. The Buckeyes are a public darling, notoriously overrated. That is evidenced by the fact that they've failed to cover in seven of their last 10 overall, and they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight versus teams with a winning record. Take OKLA. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-09-17 |
South Carolina v. Missouri -135 | | 31-13 |
Loss | -135 | 118 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Missouri Tigers.
Missouri only won four games last year, but they finished strong winning two of their last three. They beat Vanderbilt by a score of 26-17 at home, and then won their final game of the season at home versus Arkansas by a score of 28-24. Most of the offensive starters return this season, including starting quarterback Drew Lock. The junior threw for over 500 yards and 7 TDs in a Week 1 win over Missouri State. Missouri might have the most explosive offense in the SEC, and I don't think South Carolina will be able to keep up in a shootout. The Gamecocks were an underdog in their season opener against N.C. State, but somehow managed to win outright despite the fact that the Wolfpack out-gained them by more than a 2-1 margin (504-246). I expect Missouri to light up the scoreboard here at home against South Carolina.
Take MIZZ.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-09-17 |
Nebraska v. Oregon -13 | | 35-42 |
Loss | -104 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oregon Ducks 1/H. The Ducks are coming off their worst season in decades, but there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about 2017. Justin Herbert took over at quarterback half way through last season, and threw for nearly 2000 yards with 19 TDs and just four INTs. The defense was terrible in 2016, but the good news is that it can only get better. They held the Southern Utah Eagles scoreless in the second half of a 77-21 win in Week 1. Nebraska comes into Eugene off a lackluster Week 1 win over Arkansas State. Their defense gave up almost 500 yards in that game, and they probably would have lost if it wasn't for a pair of turnovers by the Red Wolves. The Cornhuskers just don't have the weapons to keep up with the Ducks offense, and if their defense couldn't stop Arkansas State, they are really going to struggle against Oregon. Take ORE. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-09-17 |
Western Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 50 | | 14-28 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WMU@MSU to go UNDER the total (1/H).
The Spartans won their season opener at home by a score of 35-10 versus Bowling Green. That victory might have been even more impressive than it looks. They gave up just three points in the first half, and held the Eagles to a total of 212 total yards. Bowling Green quarterback James Morgan completed just 10-of-31 passes for 145 yards and an INT. Michigan State hosts rivals Western Michigan in Week 2, and the Broncos are coming off an impressive game against USC. That game was tied heading into the 4th quarter, but not because Western Michigan had any success throwing the ball. Sophomore quarterback Jon Wassink threw for just 67 yards and an INT on 11-of-22 passing. The Broncos have gone under in four straight against BIG10 teams, while the Spartans have gone under in five of their last six non-conference games. The last time the Broncos played at East Lansing, they lost by a score of 26-13. I expect a similar result this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-04-17 |
Tennessee -2.5 v. Georgia Tech | | 42-41 |
Loss | -120 | 83 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Tennessee Volunteers.
Vols head coach Butch Jones is on the hot seat, and he really needs a win over Georgia Tech here in Week 1. The Yellow Jackets can be a tricky opponent, running the Triple-Option offense, but Jones has had plenty of time to prepare for this. Georgia Tech returns nine starters on offense, but they have big question marks at quarterback with the departure of three year starter Justin Thomas. Tennessee is coming off a 9-4 season with wins over Florida, Georgia and Virginia Tech. That was considered a disappointment for a program with elite level talent and a ton of experience. This season Tennessee is flying under the radar a little, and might just be a little underrated here. The Vols have covered in six straight neutral site games, and I like Tennessee to open the season strong here in Atlanta.
Take TEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-03-17 |
West Virginia +5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 24-31 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the West Virginia Mountaineers. West Virginia won 10 games last season, but they return just seven starters on both sides of the ball. The good news is that they have a proven quarterback coming in to replace Skyler Howard. Will Grier has never lost as a starter, going 6-0 with the Florida Gators before a positive drug test resulted in a suspension that kept him off the field for the last two seasons. The Hokies turn to freshman Josh Jackson at quarterback, and he'll be thrown right into the fire here in Week 1, playing in a nationally televised game in an NFL stadium. The Hokies come as a significant favorite, but it sure sounds like Dana Holgerson is confident in his own squad:
"We have more depth on the D-line than we've had since I've been here," Holgorsen said. "Those guys have continuously gotten better. At corner, we're going to have options. We have four guys who we feel pretty good about. So we've got a lot of bodies, a lot of competition. I think it's going to be fun to see those battles develop." "Will's as good as advertised," Dana Holgorsen said. "I like the kid's demeanor. He's got complete control of the huddle. He has a really good idea of what we want him to do offensively." Take WVU. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-02-17 |
BYU v. LSU -14.5 | | 0-27 |
Win | 100 | 42 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LSU. After a 2-2 start last season, the Tigers fired head coach Les Miles. When Ed Orgeron took over as the interim coach, nobody thought he had a chance to keep the job. LSU finished the season strong, winning six of their final eight games, and crushing Louisville in the Wild Wings Bowl. Junior runningback Darius Guice ran for over 250 yards twice in the final three games of last season, and led the SEC in rushing yards. The offense gets a boost with Matt Canada coming in at offensive coordinator, and he has plenty of talent to work with. BYU only lost four games last year, and none of those losses came by more than three points. They didn't play a team as talented as LSU though, and they really didn't look that sharp in a 20-6 win over Portland State in their 2017 opener. Tanner Mangum threw for just 194 yards on 16-of-27 passing in that game, and he's going to be terrorized by one of the nation's top defenses here in New Orleans. The last time Mangum faced an elite defense was when BYU lost 31-0 to Michigan two seasons ago. He threw for just 55 yards on 12-of-28 passing in that game. Take LSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-02-17 |
Florida State v. Alabama -7 | | 7-24 |
Win | 100 | 892 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Alabama. Florida State might be in for a rough ride in Week 1, playing SEC Champs Alabama in Atlanta. The Seminoles played an SEC team in Week 1 last year, and they rallied from an early 22 point deficit in a 45-34 win over Mississippi. The good start didn't last long though, as they were completely dismantled in a 63-20 loss at Louisville just a few weeks later. They had no answer for Louisville's dual threat QB, allowing Lamar Jackson to run for 146 yards and four TDs. The Tide lost several defensive stars from last season, but another strong recruiting class should fill all those holes. The offense is in good shape with Jalen Hurts, Bo Scarborough and Calvin Ridley. I am expecting Nick Saban's squad to lay the smack down here in Week 1. Take BAMA. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-02-17 |
Louisville -24.5 v. Purdue | | 35-28 |
Loss | -110 | 39 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Louisville Cardinals. The Cardinal were ranked as high as #3 halfway through the 2016 season, and quarterback Lamar Jackson won the Heisman Trophy. They closed out the season with three straight losses, and fell to LSU by a score of 29-9 in the Wild Wings Bowl. Few people are picking the Cardinal to win the ACC and contend for a playoff spot, but perhaps they are flying under the radar a little. I expect Lamar Jackson to be even better this year than he was a year ago, and Louisville still has one of the most prolific offenses in the country. They were particularly good at piling on the points when facing inferior opponents, and I think that will be the case here in Week 1 versus Purdue. The Boilermakers lost by a combined 67 points in two games against ranked teams last year. Take LOU. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-02-17 |
Michigan v. Florida +4 | | 33-17 |
Loss | -105 | 94 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Florida Gators. Last year there was more money wagered on Michigan to win the national championship than any other team. I had the Wolverines pegged as overrated from the get go, and while they dominated earlier in the year, when the schedule got tougher they couldn't get over the hump. They played just three ranked teams, and lost two of those three games. They also lost on the road to unranked Iowa. Despite losing almost all their defensive starters from last year, there is still plenty of hype surrounding this year's Michigan team. Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines open the season as a significant favorite in a neutral site game against the Florida Gators. The Gators won nine games last year, and faced Alabama in the SEC Championship Game for the second consecutive season. Florida crushed the Iowa Hawkeyes by a score of 30-3 in their bowl game. A lot has been made about several starters for Florida sitting out this game because of suspensions. I believe the Gators have enough talent to handle Michigan, even without some of their top players. Florida is 7-2 ATS in it's last nine neutral site games. Take FLA. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-01-17 |
Colorado State v. Colorado -5 | | 3-17 |
Win | 100 | 66 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Colorado Buffaloes. After losing to the Buffs by a score of 44-7 last season, the Colorado State Rams are expecting better things against their in state rivals this season. There is plenty to be optimistic about, coming off a blowout win over Oregon State last week. A closer look at that 58-27 victory though reveals what might just amount to fools gold. The Beavers turned the ball over five times, and gave up a whopping 24 points in the fourth quarter. The Rams defense still conceded 456 total yards, and gave up the first down in 10-of-16 third down situations. They can't count on five turnovers saving their asses here against Colorado, a team with plenty of talent returning from last season's squad that went to the PAC12 Championship game. They will start Steven Montez at quarterback, and he was 2-1 as a starter last year filling in for the injured Liufau. Senior runningback Phillip Lindsay led the PAC12 with 16 TDs last season. This game should be a bit of a shootout, but Colorado is likely to win by double-digits. Tale CU. GL, Jesse Schule |
08-31-17 |
TULSA v. OKLAHOMA STATE UNDER 69 | Top | 24-59 |
Loss | -105 | 49 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TULSA@OKST to go UNDER the total.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane open the season as a double-digit dog on the road in Stillwater, and the bookmakers set a sky high total in the 70s for this game. Tulsa was an offensive juggernaut last year, but most of the offensive talent from that squad has moved on. In two games against ranked teams last season, Tulsa failed to impress. Neither of those games saw a total as high as we see here in this game, and against Ohio State they managed just three points. The Cowboys come into this season with high expectations, and their offense should be in good shape with Heisman hopeful Mason Rudolph at quarterback. If you include their bowl game, Oklahoma State played four non-conference games last season. Only one of those saw 70 points scored, and that was a 45-38 win over Pittsburgh. I expect Tulsa to really struggle on offense against an experienced Oklahoma State defense. While the Cowboys should get their fair share of points, it's likely that there could be a few hiccups before they start firing on all cylinders. This is evidenced by the fact that they've failed to reach the total in four of their last five games in August.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schuile |
01-09-17 |
Clemson +7 v. Alabama | Top | 35-31 |
Win | 100 | 166 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Clemson Tigers. Alabama has been the best team in the country for the last several seasons, and some consider to be their best team ever. They come into the National Championship Game with a perfect record, favored by a TD over 13-1 Clemson. The Tigers only loss came by a single point, when Pittsburgh kicked a game winning field goal in the final seconds of a 43-42 upset win. Clemson crushed Ohio State by a score of 31-0 in their semifinal game, and they held J.T. Barrett to just 127 yards one 19-of-33 passing with a pair of INTs. The Tide didn't look all that impressive in their last game, struggling to score points in a 24-7 win over Washington. Jalen Hurts threw for just 57 yards on 7-of-14 passing, and if he plays like that here against Clemson, the defending champs might be in trouble. This is after all a rematch of last year's championship game, that was decided by a score of 45-40. That game was tied at the half, and Alabama took just a three point lead into the fourth quarter. Deshaun Watson had himself a night, throwing for 405 yards and four TDs on 30-of-47 passing. He also ran for 73 yards on 20 carries. If Watson delivers that type of performance this time around, Clemson will likely be the National Champions. Take CLEM. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-02-17 |
Auburn v. Oklahoma -190 | Top | 19-35 |
Win | 100 | 589 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma Sooners. The Sooners finished the season strong, winning nine straight games and clinching their second straight BIG12 Championship. They didn't just win, they absolutely manhandled opponents at the end of the season. Their final two games were both blowout wins over ranked opponents. They out-scored Oklahoma State and West Virginia by a combined score of 84-48. Baker Mayfield didn't win the Heisman, but in my mind he was the best quarterback in the country this year. The difference between he and Lamar Jackson was that Mayfield played well in the Sooners biggest games, even when they lost to the Cougars and the Buckeyes. Auburn had a flash of greatness in the middle of the season, but faded in the final weeks, losing two of their last three games. Quarterback Sean White didn't play in the final two games of the season, but he's expected to be back for the Sugar Bowl. He didn't have a great season, throwing for 1644 yards with nine TDs and three INTs in 10 starts. I think it's going to be tough for the Tigers to find enough offense to compete with Oklahoma here in the Sugar Bowl. Take OKLA. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-31-16 |
Ohio State v. Clemson +3.5 | Top | 0-31 |
Win | 100 | 539 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Clemson Tigers.
Both Clemson and Ohio State lost just one game this season, and the majority of the pundits agree that these two teams are pretty evenly matched. The Tigers though are getting a significant number of points here in the Fiesta Bowl, and I believe Clemson played better football down the stretch. J.T. Barrett threw for just 210 yards with one TD an an INT on 25-of-54 passing in the final two games, just barely beating Michigan State and Michigan. DeShaun Watson threw for 635 yards and nine TDs in his last two games, and he ran for over 100 yards and two TDs as well. The Buckeyes are a young team, with the majority of the players from their championship squad two years ago already moved on. The Tigers still have the same core group of stars from last year's team that pushed Alabama to the brink in the Championship Game. The Buckeyes failed to cover the spread in six of their last overall, while Clemson is 7-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games. I'll take the points.
Take CLEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-31-16 |
Washington v. Alabama OVER 52.5 | Top | 7-24 |
Loss | -103 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WAS@BAMA to go OVER the total. The Crimson Tide will be a double digit favorite over Washington in the Peach Bowl, but the Huskies offense might give them some trouble. Alabama has only lost one game in the last two seasons, and that was a 43-37 home loss to Ole Miss last year. Chad Kelly lit them up for 341 passing yards and three TDs in the victory. The Rebels nearly did it again this season, as Kelly threw for a whopping 431 yards and three TDs in a 48-43 home loss. If there's a weakness in the Alabama defense, it's that they've failed to contain elite quarterbacks over the last two seasons. Kelly wasn't the only quarterback to have a big game against Alabama this season, Austin Allen threw for 400 yards and three TDs when Arkansas lost 49-30 at home to Alabama. Jake Browning was one of the nation's top quarterbacks this season, throwing for 3,280 yards with 42 TDs and just seven picks. Given almost a month to prepare for this game, these offensive coordinators should have plenty of tricks up their sleeves. Both these teams have trended toward high scoring games, with the Huskies going over in four of their last five non-conference games. The Tide have gone over nine of their last 11 bowl games, and the over is 19-6-1 in their last 26 neutral site games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-30-16 |
Florida State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 33-32 |
Win | 100 | 260 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Florida State Seminoles.
This looks like a classic let down spot for the Wolverines, and Harbaugh might struggle to get his team up for their bowl game. Michigan was ranked in the Top 5 all year, and didn't drop out of a playoff spot until losing to the Buckeyes in their final game of the regular season. Many of the stars on both sides of the ball for the Wolverines will already be looking ahead to the NFL, and might not be all that happy about putting their body on the line one more time ahead of the draft. Even at their best, the Wolverines might be hard pressed to cover such a big number against a Florida State team that went 9-3 this season, losing to Clemson by just three points, and suffering an upset loss to North Carolina by a score of 37-35. The only ugly mark on their season was a 63-20 loss to Louisville in Week 3, but I am not going to read too much into that result, as there were some key injuries on defense that factored into that loss. FSU running back Dalvin Cook was banged up in the first half of the season, but he ran for 720 yards and 11 TDs in his last five games. The Seminoles should give Harbaugh's boys a run for their money.
Take FSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
12-28-16 |
Kansas State v. Texas A&M -145 | Top | 33-28 |
Loss | -145 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Texas A&M Aggies. Both Kansas State and Texas A&M finished the season with 8-4 overall records, but the Wildcats didn't really have any quality wins. In fact none of their eight wins came against teams with a winning record (in the FBS). The Aggies on the other hand opened the season with six straight wins, beating Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee. Even after they lost to Alabama in late October, they ranked #4 overall in the first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings. Things went downhill for the Aggies when Trevor Knight was injured two weeks later in a loss to Mississippi State. Knight is healthy and well rested, and all geared up for the final game of his college career. He delivered one of the most impressive performances in history when he threw for 348 yards and four TDs in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, helping Oklahoma upset Alabama by a score of 45-31. Bill Snyder knows just how dangerous Knight can be, he threw for 318 yards and three TDs in his last game against the Wildcats. Kansas State won that game 31-30 at Oklahoma, but that was a different team with Jake Waters and Tyler Lockett. Jesse Ertz struggled at quarterback for the Wildcats this season, throwing just four TD passes and three picks in eight games in conference play. He's up against the best pass rush in the country, and it could get ugly if he's forced to throw. The Wildcats are a woeful 1-7 ATS in their last eight bowl games. Take Aggies. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-17-16 |
Southern Miss -195 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 28-21 |
Win | 100 | 80 h 23 m | Show |
10* analysis before game time |
12-03-16 |
Penn State v. Wisconsin -140 | Top | 38-31 |
Loss | -140 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers.
The Wisconsin Badgers boast the #3 ranked defense in the country, allowing opponents to average just 13.7 points per game. This is even more impressive when you consider their strength of schedule. The list of teams they've held under 20 points this year includes: Michigan, LSU, Nebraska, Michigan State and Iowa. Penn State's defense held up in a 24-21 win over Ohio State, but against Michigan, it was a different story. The Nittany Lions were crushed by a score of 49-10 at Michigan, turning the ball over twice and gaining a total of just 191 yards. The Badgers also lost at Michigan, but it was a close game that was tied in the fourth quarter, with Wisconsin ultimately falling 14-7. Badgers running back Corey Clement has gone over 100 yards in four straight games, totaling seven TDs during that span. Penn State's star running back is expected to play despite suffering a foot injury versus Michigan State last week. If Saquon Barkley is anything less than 100 percent, it could be a long day for the Nittany Lions offense.
Take WISC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-03-16 |
Virginia Tech +11 v. Clemson | Top | 35-42 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Virginia Tech Hokies.
Clemson will be a big favorite against Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship game, but I think the Hokies can keep this game close. Jerod Evans has quietly had a big year for the Hokies, throwing for over 3000 yards with 26 TDs and just five INTs. He's also run for over 700 yards and eight TDs. Deshaun Watson had a big game against South Carolina last week, but he's been wildly inconsistent all year long. Clemson has failed to cover in four of it's last five games against teams with a winning record, and the underdog has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings between these two teams. The Hokies have quietly been one of the better defensive teams in the country, ranking 20th nationally allowing just 21 points per game. Virginia Tech has all the tools to give Clemson a run for it's money here, and maybe even pull off an upset.
Take VT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-03-16 |
Oklahoma State +11 v. Oklahoma | Top | 20-38 |
Loss | -106 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Sooners will be a double digit favorite at home against Oklahoma State, but it wouldn't be "Bedlam" unless this game was close. The Sooners have won three of the last four in this series, but the last two games in Norman were each decided by just three points. The road team covered in all four meetings, and the underdog has covered in three of the last four. Oklahoma won big last year, but Mason Rudolph was unable to start that game due to injury. Rudolph has quietly thrown for more yards than Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield, and while he has 10 fewer TD passes, he's also thrown half as many INTs. The Cowboys have been far better on defense than Oklahoma this year, and they will need to be at their best to slow down the Sooners high flying offense. They are coming off a dominant road win at TCU, limiting Kenny Hill to 166 passing yards with 1 TD and a pair of INTs. Hill lit up the Sooners for 449 yards and five TDs in a 52-46 home loss earlier in the season. I expect the Cowboys to hang in there in a thriller in Norman. Take OKST. GL, Jesse Schule
|
11-26-16 |
Michigan State v. Penn State UNDER 54.5 | Top | 12-45 |
Loss | -110 | 107 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MSU@PSU to go UNDER the total.
The Spartans are a lot better than their 3-8 record, and they proved that by nearly upsetting the Buckeyes at home last week. Four of their eight losses have come by four points or less, and they've played far better defensively in recent weeks. Running back L.J. Scott has carried the offense, running for 282 yards and two TDs on 39 carries the last two weeks. We could see both teams lean on the run this week when they play at Penn State. The weather forecast is calling for wind and freezing cold temperatures, similar to last week's game versus the Buckeyes. The Stakes couldn't be any higher for the Nittany Lions, who can clinch a spot in the BIG10 Championship game with a win, and a Michigan loss to Ohio State. Penn State's defense has surrendered just 14 points in it's last two home games, and they've held the Spartans to less than 20 points in three of the last five head to head meetings. Previous meetings have gone over the total at a rate of 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams, but the number in this game is far higher than it was in any of the last seven meetings. I expect a close, low scoring game in bad weather this weekend.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-26-16 |
Georgia Tech v. Georgia -4 | | 28-27 |
Loss | -115 | 140 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Georgia Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs have won three straight, and Nick Chubb is coming off back to back games with over 100 yards. It's been a disappointing season for Chubb and the Bulldogs, but they appear to be playing their best football ahead of this rivalry game versus Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs were dominant in a home win over Auburn a couple weeks ago, out-gaining the Tigers 343-164 total yards. This rivalry has been rather one-sided in recent seasons, with Georgia winning six of the last seven meetings, and covered the spread in four of the last five. They haven't been fooled by the triple-option, and I expect them to ready for the Yellow Jackets here on Saturday. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six versus teams from the ACC, while the Yellow Jackets are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 versus teams with a winning record.
Take UGA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-26-16 |
Michigan v. Ohio State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-30 |
Loss | -110 | 103 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MICH@OSU to go UNDER the total.
The Buckeyes just narrowly escaped with a 17-16 win on the road at East Lansing last week, and they will face another tough test at home versus Michigan in Week 13. There's a lot on the line here, as the loser is likely going to be eliminated from the playoffs. Michigan bounced back from a 14-13 loss at Iowa to beat Indiana by a score of 20-10 last week. The Wolverines offense is still sputtering though, and backup quarterback John O'korn three for just 59 yards on 7-of-16 passing in his first start since Wilton Speight went down with a broken collar bone. J.T. Barrett didn't have a great day either, throwing for just 86 yards and a TD on 10-of-22 passing. Both coaches will say that the weather was to blame for last week's poor performance on offense, but in a high stakes game in Columbus in late November, defense should reign supreme. These two teams rank 1st and 3rd respectively in total defense, and the weather man is calling for another cold and windy day in Ohio.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-25-16 |
Washington -4.5 v. Washington State | | 45-17 |
Win | 100 | 118 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Huskies.
The rivalry between Washington and Washington State has been very one-sided in recent years. The Huskies have won six of the last seven meetings by an average margin of 19.5 points. They won twice on the road during that span, and they covered the spread in both of those victories. This year more than other, there seems to be a huge disparity in talent between the two teams. The 10-1 Huskies are ranked #5 overall, and still have a chance to qualify for the College Football Playoffs. Both teams are 7-1 in PAC12 play, but the Cougars have had a really soft schedule, with six of those seven conference wins coming against teams with a losing record. The Huskies don't get a lot of style points for strength of schedule, but they won at Utah, scored 70 points at Oregon, and crushed Stanford by a 38 point margin. The weather conditions are expected to be less than ideal, with an 80 percent chance of rain, and high winds expected in Pullman. This should favor the Huskies, who have a far better defense and a more dangerous running game. The Huskies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight at Washington State, and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.
Take WASH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-25-16 |
TCU v. Texas -165 | Top | 31-9 |
Loss | -165 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Texas Longhorns.
With all the negativity surrounding this Texas Team, it's important to remember that only one of their six losses this season have come by more than a touchdown. In fact they've lost four games by five points or less, two of those against Top 25 ranked teams. That's still not good enough to save Charlie Strong's job, and he's expected to be fired following Friday's game against TCU. The Longhorn's players should be highly motivated to give Strong a positive sendoff, as he's well respected in the locker room. The nation's leading rusher D'Onta Foreman will likely see plenty of touches, and he should put up huge numbers against this TCU defense that was shredded for 334 rushing yards in a home loss to Oklahoma State last week. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill was brutal in that game, throwing for just 166 yards with a TD and two INTs on 18-of-27 passing. Hill isn't playing well, but his receivers haven't been doing him any favors, dropping a lot of balls that should have been caught. The Horned Frogs really miss Josh Doctson. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover in six of their last seven conference games, and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five versus teams with a losing record. Texas has covered in four of their last five home games.
Take TEX.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-24-16 |
LSU v. Texas A&M +7.5 | Top | 54-39 |
Loss | -118 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies. The Tigers are coming off an ugly 16-10 home loss to Florida, and they come into College Station asked to cover a big spread as a road favorite. That's going to be challenging without leading rusher Leonard Fournette, and I expect the Aggies to keep this game close. Texas A&M has lost two of four since Trevor Knight went down with a season ending injury, but those losses came in games decided by a combined total of eight points. Backup quarterback Jake Hunenak has thrown for 811 yards with six TDs and just two INTs on 59.8 percent passing so far, but he has his work cut out for him against this tough LSU secondary. The Tigers have won four straight in this series dating back to 2012, and all four of those games went under the total. Their two wins at College Station each came by less than seven points. LSU has played three games away from home, losing two of those three and scoring less than 20 points in each of those losses. Last week's home loss to Florida was particularly deflating, getting stuffed on the goal line twice at the end of the game.
Take AGGIES.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-24-16 |
LSU v. Texas A&M UNDER 48 | Top | 54-39 |
Loss | -115 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LSU@TAM to go UNDER the total.
The Tigers are coming off an ugly 16-10 home loss to Florida, and they come into College Station asked to cover a big spread as a road favorite. That's going to be challenging without leading rusher Leonard Fournette, and I expect the Aggies to keep this game close. Texas A&M has lost two of four since Trevor Knight went down with a season ending injury, but those losses came in games decided by a combined total of eight points. Backup quarterback Jake Hunenak has thrown for 811 yards with six TDs and just two INTs on 59.8 percent passing so far, but he has his work cut out for him against this tough LSU secondary. The Tigers have won four straight in this series dating back to 2012, and all four of those games went under the total. Their two wins at College Station each came by less than seven points. LSU has played three games away from home, losing two of those three and scoring less than 20 points in each of those losses. Last week's home loss to Florida was particularly deflating, getting stuffed on the goal line twice at the end of the game. LSU has gone under in nine of it's last 10 games in the month of November.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-19-16 |
Oklahoma v. West Virginia UNDER 67 | Top | 56-28 |
Loss | -115 | 83 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKLA@WVU to go UNDER the total.
The 8-1 Mountaineers aren't getting much respect from bookmakers this week, listed as a home underdog to the 8-2 Oklahoma Sooners. Everybody loves Oklahoma's offense, and we've seen quarterback Baker Mayfield put up some impressive numbers. He threw for 545 yards and seven TDs against Texas Tech, and he had big games against Texas, Iowa State, TCU and Baylor. None of those teams can play defense like West Virginia. The Mountaineers have shut down a few high powered offenses already this year, holding the likes of TCU, Texas Tech and Texas under 21 points. West Virginia might want to focus on running the ball here at home, especially after Skyler Howard was picked off three times last week against Texas. The weather forecast in Morgantown is calling for a 90% chance of rain, as well as high winds. The Sooners have failed to reach the total in five straight, while West Virginia has gone under in five of it's last six overall. This total appears to be a little inflated, especially given the bad weather.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-19-16 |
Stanford -10.5 v. California | Top | 45-31 |
Win | 100 | 76 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
Since Keller Chryst took over at quarterback for the Cardinal, Stanford has won three straight games, all by double digits. The junior threw for 258 yards and three TDs in a 52-27 win at Oregon last week. This week's game against Cal should be very similar, as the Bears are another team that really struggles on defense. In fact, Cal ranks dead last in the FBS in points allowed, giving up an average of 45.6 points per game so far. They've given up an FBS worst 28 rushing TDs, and they rank dead last in yards per carry, allowing opponents to average 6.2 yards per attempt. That should spell trouble as they get set to face the most prolific running back of all time (McCaffrey owns the single season record of all purpose yards). Last week at Oregon, McCaffrey ran for 135 yards and three TDs, and caught five passes for 52 yards. Cal has scored plenty of points this season, but for the most part against inferior opponents. I don't like the Bears chances this week, with a banged up Davis Webb facing a tough Cardinal defense. Stanford has won six straight in this series, and five of those wins came by a double digit margin. This looks like a good spot for the Cardinal to win in another blowout.
Take STAN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-19-16 |
Maryland v. Nebraska -14.5 | Top | 7-28 |
Win | 100 | 123 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
The Maryland Terrapins are coming off consecutive blowout losses, and they were out-scored 121-6 in those games versus Ohio State and Michigan. The good news is that they need to win just one of their remaining two games to become bowl eligible, but it's unlikely that they will get that win here on the road at Nebraska. In fact, they might be better off resting their injured players for next week's game versus Rutgers. Maryland used three quarterbacks in last week's 62-3 home loss to the Buckeyes, and they combined to throw for just 133 yards and an INT on 15-of-27 passing. Their starter Perry Hills suffered a shoulder injury two weeks ago versus Michigan, and then injured the other shoulder last week against Ohio State. His status for this game is in question, and the Terps may also be without their top two running backs. Leading rusher Ty Johnson is questionable with a shoulder injury, and freshman Lorenzo Harrison is serving a suspension due to an off field incident. Harrison leads the team with five rushing TDs. The Cornhuskers also have injury concerns, but playing at home against a short-handed Maryland team should be a cake walk.
Take NEB.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-17-16 |
Louisville v. Houston +14.5 | | 10-36 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Cougars.
The Cougars are out of the playoff picture after suffering a pair of losses, but they will try to play spoiler here at home versus #5 ranked Louisville. Lamar Jackson is still the favorite to win the Heisman, but he struggled last week against Wake Forest. He threw for just 145 yards and a TD on 14-of-26 passing, but ran for 153 yards on 22 carries. The Cougars upset the Cardinals in Louisville last year, and they terrorized Jackson, holding him to a career worst 20.5 QBR. He was picked off twice while throwing for 168 yards and a TD on 17-of-27 passing. The Cougars own dual threat quarterback Greg Ward threw for 236 yards and three TDs on 23-of-33 passing, and ran for 98 yards on 21 carries in last year's 34-31 win. Houston has enough weapons to give Louisville all sorts of problems, and getting more than a two TD cushion at home, I'll back the underdog here.
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-12-16 |
USC +8 v. Washington | Top | 26-13 |
Win | 100 | 139 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the USC Trojans.
The Washington Huskies head into this Saturday's home game versus USC ranked 4th nationally, looking to move to 10-0 on the season. They've beaten some good teams already this season, but this looks like their toughest test to date. The Trojans opened the season losing three of their first four games, but have since won five straight. Sam Darnold took over at quarterback in Week 4 versus Utah, and the Trojans held a lead in that game right up until the final 16 seconds when Utah scored late for the come from behind win. The freshman has thrown for over 1,800 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs this season, and USC has scored at least 45 points in three straight games. The Huskies have won just three of their last 10 against USC, and all three of those wins came in gamed decided by five points or less. I expect Washington to be tested here, and we should see another close game. This line looks a little inflated, and I'll take the points with USC. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series.
Take USC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-12-16 |
LSU v. Arkansas +7 | Top | 38-10 |
Loss | -125 | 128 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arkansas Razorbacks.
The Razorbacks are getting a generous cushion at home this week against an LSU team that failed to score a single point in a home loss to Alabama last Saturday. Of course the Hogs defense isn't likely to be as successful stopping the run as the #1 ranked Crimson Tide, but Arkansas has one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC. The Hogs are coming off an impressive 31-10 win over Florida, holding the Gators to just 12 yards on 14 carries. These teams have played seven times since 2009, and Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in those games. The Hogs won outright at Baton Rouge last year (31-14), and won 17-0 at home in 2015. There's no secret that the key to beating the Tigers is stopping star running back Leonard Fournette. He was held to just 35 yards on 17 carries in the loss to Alabama last Saturday, and it won't get any easier here this week. Arkansas was one of just two teams to hold Fournette under 100 yards last season.
Take ARK.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-09-16 |
Toledo -6.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 39 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Toledo Rockets.
The Northern Illinois Huskies have been to six consecutive MAC Championship games, winning the conference title three times during that span. They have really dropped off here this season, coming into this week's home game versus Toledo with a 3-6 record. All three of those wins have come against bottom feeders in the conference (Ball State, Buffalo and Bowling Green). They've been crushed when they've played tougher opposition, suffering double digit losses to South Florida, San Diego State and Western Michigan). They even lost at home to an opponent from the FCS (Western Illinois). The Huskies have won six straight in this series, and I think past results have resulted in line value on the Rockets, who should be a much bigger favorite here. NIU was getting 17.5 points versus Western Michigan, 13 points versus San Diego State and 14 points versus South Florida. Facing a Rockets team that ranks 14th nationally in points scored should prove to be too much at a neutral site at US Cellular Field.
Take TOL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-05-16 |
Nebraska +14 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-62 |
Loss | -110 | 133 h 47 m | Show |
|
11-05-16 |
Alabama -7 v. LSU | Top | 10-0 |
Win | 100 | 128 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Alabama Crimson Tide.
After losing two of their first four games, the Tigers fired head coach Les Miles. They have won three straight since, but I am still skeptical that this team can truly contend with elite teams. Last week's 38-21 win over Ole Miss wasn't quite as impressive as the score would indicate. The game was tied 21-21 at halftime, and the Rebels suffered yet another second half collapse. Leonard Fournette ran all over Mississippi's defense, with a whopping 284 yards and three TDs on just 16 carries. Don't expect those big plays to come against Alabama, and LSU's one dimensional offense is going to be hard pressed to put points on the board. Last year Fournette ran for a season low 31 yards, averaging just 1.6 yards per carry in a 30-16 loss to Alabama. He ran for 79 yards on 21 carries in a 20-13 home loss to Alabama the previous season. The Crimson Tide have won all but one of their games by at least two TDs, with the exception being a 48-43 win at Ole Miss. Alabama ranks 1st nationally in rushing defense, allowing opponents to average just 2.2 yards per carry. That doesn't bode well for an LSU team that needs to run the ball to score points.
Take BAMA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-05-16 |
Maryland +31 v. Michigan | | 3-59 |
Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Maryland Terrapins.
The Wolverines are #3 in the College Football Playoff rankings, while the Buckeyes are #6. The two teams play in Columbus at the end of the month, making this week's home game against Maryland pretty meaningless. Michigan is a huge favorite, but I really don't see any incentive for Harbaugh to run up the score here. Maryland has been pretty competitive, coming in with a 5-3 record. They beat the Spartans at home just two weeks ago, and they won outright by a score of 23-16 in their last game at Michigan. While the Wolverines have won four of the last five in this series, the margin of victory in those games never came close to the enormous number here in this contest. Maryland RB Ty Johnson is coming off back to back 100 yard games, and he's averaging over 10 yard per carry this season. Michigan gave up over 200 rushing yards in last week's win over the Spartans, and Johnson might find room to run here in this game. I'll take the underdog as this looks like an epic "look ahead" spot for the Wolverines.
Take MD.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-29-16 |
Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 50.5 | Top | 34-10 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on STAN@ARI to go UNDER the total.
Stanford has lost three of it's last four games, and has scored an average of just 11 points per game during that span. Ryan Burns is really struggling at quarterback for the Cardinal, and he's thrown five INTs and just one TD pass in his last three starts. Christian McCaffrey has been banged up, failing to run for 100 yards in each of his last three starts. He wasn't able to play in Stanford's 17-10 win at Notre Dame. The good news for the Cardinal is their defense has played well, holding Colorado to 10 points last week, and Notre Dame to 10 point the week earlier. Arizona has lost four straight, and it's offense only managed 14 points in a home loss to USC last week. Stanford's defense should make life difficult for the Wildcats, and I think we'll see another low scoring game here in Arizona. The Cardinal have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-29-16 |
Washington v. Utah +10.5 | Top | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 129 h 0 m | Show |
10* analysis before game time |
10-29-16 |
Georgia v. Florida -6 | Top | 10-24 |
Win | 100 | 129 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Florida Gators.
The Gators and the Bulldogs are two teams trending in different directions. Georgia is coming off an ugly loss at home to Vanderbilt, while Florida crushed Missouri 40-14 at home two weeks ago. The Bulldogs have lost three of their last four games, including a 45-14 loss at Ole Miss in September. Freshman quarterback Jacob Eason completed 16-of-36 passes for 137 yards and an INT in that game. The Bulldogs one dimensional offense is likely to struggle against a Gators defense that ranks 2nd overall in points allowed (12 per game). Georgia's running game couldn't get off the ground in the loss to Vanderbilt, gaining just 75 yards on 35 carries. The Gators have beaten the Bulldogs by double digits in each of the last two seasons, and they are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. I expect another blowout here in Jacksonville Saturday.
Take FLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-22-16 |
TCU v. West Virginia -195 | Top | 10-34 |
Win | 100 | 114 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the WVU Mountaineers. The TCU Horned Frogs just barely escaped with a come from behind 24-23 win over Kansas in Week 6. Quarterback Kenny Hill threw three picks, with just 206 yards and a TD on 17-of-32 passing. TCU is really missing Josh Doctson, and it's inexperienced receiving corps is making life difficult for Hill. It doesn't get any easier this week, facing the Mountaineers in Morgantown. West Virginia's defense has been impressive, and last week at Texas Tech they limited the Red Raiders to just 379 total yards. There are plenty of similarities between TCU and Texas Tech, and we should expect a similar result to what we saw last week when WVU won 48-17. TCU has failed to cover in five of it's last seven versus BIG12 teams, and five of their last six overall. The Horned Frogs are allowing over 30 points per game, ranking 85th nationally. Take WVU. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-22-16 |
Wisconsin -175 v. Iowa | Top | 17-9 |
Win | 100 | 100 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Wisconsin Badgers.
The Badgers have played a tough schedule, facing four teams ranked in the Top 10. Three of those opponents were ranked Top 5, and they lost close games at Michigan and last week blew a lead late against #2 ranked OSU. Considering the opposition, they deserve a lot of credit for going 4-2 and ranking in the Top 10 in scoring defense. Wisconsin has allowed just over 15 points per game, and I think they'll make life difficult for C.J. Beathard this week. Iowa's quarterback has failed to throw for 200 yards in five of seven games so far, and he's thrown as many picks (3) as touchdowns the last three weeks. This is a big time revenge spot for the Badgers, who lost 10-8 to Iowa at home last year. Beathard threw for just 77 yards on 9-of-21 passing, with 1 TD and an INT in that game. Wisconsin's offense did well last week, gaining 450 yards in a loss to the Buckeyes. Corey Clement ran for 164 yards on 25 carries, and he might have a big day against an Iowa defense that surrendered 198 rushing yards and two rushing TDs in a loss to Northwester a few weeks ago. Iowa already has two home losses to unranked teams, and I expect the #10 ranked badgers to be too much for them to handle.
Take WISC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-20-16 |
BYU v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | | 27-28 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 2-team (7.5 point) teaser with BYU+UNDER.
The BYU Cougars come into Boise State riding a three game winning streak, and their overall record of 4-3 is quite impressive when you look at their schedule. Losses to #12 ranked West Virginia and #18 ranked Utah came by a combined eight points, and they lost at home to UCLA by a score of 17-14. Their defense has allowed 21 points or less in five of seven games. The Broncos defense ranks 23rd nationally, allowing less than 20 points per game. Those numbers are little skewed though, considering their soft schedule.
Both teams have relied heavily on a power running game in recent weeks. Boise State running back Jeremy McNichols ran for 217 yards and a pair of TDs last week, carrying the ball a season high 40 times. Jamaal Williams ran for 286 yards and five TDs in BYU's win over Toledo a few weeks ago. I expect both teams to try to establish the run here on Thursday, and the result should be a close low scoring game. BYU has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings in this series, and Boise State has failed to reach the total in nine of it's last 10 home games.
Take BYU+UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-15-16 |
Missouri v. Florida -13.5 | | 14-40 |
Win | 100 | 115 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Florida Gators.
Florida will host Missouri in Week 7, and the Gators will be well rested after last Saturday's game versus LSU was postponed. Missouri also comes off a bye week, and this will be the Tigers third road game of the season. They were out-scored 68-18 in losses at West Virginia and LSU. The Gators are hoping to welcome back quarterback Luke Del Rio, who missed the last two games with a knee injury. Del Rio threw for 762 yards with six TDs and two INTs in three appearances prior to the injury. Florida's defense ranks 3rd nationally, allowing just 11.6 points per game. Florida is 3-0 at home, and has surrendered a total of 14 points in those games. The Gators terrorized Missouri quarterback Drew Lock in a 21-3 win at Columbia last year. Lock threw for 151 yards, no TDs and two INTs on 16-of-39 passing. He's struggled on the road in 2016, completing just 45 percent of his passes with one TD and an INT. Missouri is 1-5 ATS in it's last six games versus SEC teams, and it has failed to cover in four straight road games.
Take FLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-15-16 |
West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 84 | | 48-17 |
Win | 100 | 111 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WVU@TTU to go UNDER the total.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are an offensive juggernaut, but they could be slowed by the undefeated West Virginia Mountaineers this week. West Virginia held Kansas State to just 16 points last week, and the Mountaineers rank 15th nationally in passing defense. They've allowed just four passing TDs, while picking off opposing quarterbacks five times. That's not good news for the nation's leading passer Patrick Mahomes, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. He threw for at least 300 yards 10 times last season, but was held to a season low 196 yards with three TDs and one INT on 21-of-34 passing in a 31-26 loss to West Virginia. The total for this week's game is astronomically high, in fact it's far higher than it was in any of the previous four meetings. Only one of those four games went over the total, when Texas Tech won 37-27 at West Virginia in 2013. That still falls well short of the number these teams are being asked to reach here in this game. I expect the Mountaineers defense to make enough stops to keep this game from reaching this inflated number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-15-16 |
Kansas State +14 v. Oklahoma | Top | 17-38 |
Loss | -110 | 35 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KSU. The Oklahoma Sooners will host BIG12 rivals Kansas State this Saturday, and Oklahoma is a double-digit favorite. The Sooners spanked the Wildcats in Manhattan by a score of 55-0 last year, setting up a nice revenge angle in this rematch. Blowouts have been rare in this series, as the Wildcats had won two of three prior to last year's game, and all three of those games were decided by fewer than 10 points.
While Oklahoma has won back to back games, they were guilty of sloppy play and horrendous defense in both those victories. TCU scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to pull within three points of the Sooners two weeks ago. The Horned Frogs ended up with the ball, and a chance to win the game on their last drive, but came up short.
Last week against Texas they turned the ball over four times, and held on to win by just five points. Watching that game I noticed that several players on the Sooners defense were carted off the field, leaving them thin at several key positions. Kansas State comes into this game without any injuries to report.
The Wildcats might not have the same offensive firepower as Texas and TCU, but they have a far better defense than either of those two teams. Special teams may just be a deciding factor here, as Bill Snyder's squad ranks 6th nationally with a special teams efficiency of 72.5. The Sooners have been woeful on special teams, ranking 125th nationally with an efficiency of 22.4.
Oklahoma has allowed 40 or more points three weeks in a row, and ranks 109th nationally in scoring defense, surrendering over 36 points per game. It's hard enough to win games with a defense that bad, let alone cover. This game has upset written all over it.
Take KSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-08-16 |
Alabama v. Arkansas OVER 48.5 | Top | 49-30 |
Win | 100 | 78 h 8 m | Show |
|
10-08-16 |
Tennessee v. Texas A&M -6.5 | Top | 38-45 |
Win | 100 | 122 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* (GOM) Play on Texas A&M.
Two undefeated teams will square off when the Vols visit College Station this week, but while the Aggies appear to be the real deal, there's plenty of doubt surrounding Tennessee. The Vols have spent the majority of this season battling from behind, despite the fact that they have played five unranked teams. Last week's win came on a Hail Mary pass as the clock expired, and they are in a prime spot for a let down here this Saturday.
The Aggies defense has been lights out! Texas A&M ranks 12th nationally allowing just 15.4 points per game. Unlike the Vols, they've actually faced a pair of Top 25 teams in UCLA and Arkansas. They also won on the road at Auburn and crushed the Gamecocks last week in South Carolina.
Trevor Knight is getting it done at quarterback, throwing for 1,261 yards with seven TDs and three INTs, and running for six scores. He's got plenty of weapons, with one of the deepest receiving corps in the country.
Senior Josh Dobbs has not been spectacular for the Vols, with 1,035 passing yards, 13 TDs and six INTs. The Vols running game has also struggled, and #1 running back Jalen Hurd left with an injury in the second half of last week's game at Georgia.
The Aggies rested several star players last week (Myles Garrett, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Speedy Noil), but Kevin Sumlin said we can expect everybody to be ready for the Vols.
Take AGGIES.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-08-16 |
Auburn v. Mississippi State UNDER 54.5 | Top | 38-14 |
Win | 100 | 71 h 5 m | Show |
|
10-06-16 |
Temple v. Memphis -9.5 | Top | 27-34 |
Loss | -115 | 90 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Memphis Tigers.
The Temple Owls are coming off back to back big home wins over minnows SMU and Charlotte, and I think they are going to suffer a huge setback on the road in Memphis. The Tigers rank 6th nationally averaging over 45 points per game, and they boast a Top 25 defense as well. Their last home game was a 77-3 win over Bowling Green, and junior quarterback Riley Ferguson threw for 357 yards and six TDs on 20-of-27 passing in the victory. He was pretty solid in a losing effort at Ole Miss, despite throwing three INTs. He threw for 346 yards on 30-of-46 passing, and scored a couple of rushing TDs. Memphis scored 28 points on the road against one of the nation's top teams, and halfway through the third quarter of that game they were within six points. They should be able to pile on here at home, and Temple doesn't have the firepower to keep up. Temple's last three road games came at Penn State, Houston and South Florida. They lost all three of those games, and losses to the Cougars and Bulls came by double-digits. Memphis has been a juggernaut at home, covering the spread in 16 of their last 21 home games versus teams with a winning record.
Take MEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-01-16 |
Arizona v. UCLA UNDER 59 | Top | 24-45 |
Loss | -110 | 119 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARI@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The UCLA Bruins are coming off a tough home loss to Stanford, but once against their defense was extremely impressive. The Bruins made Christian McCaffrey look human, limiting him to 138 yards on 26 carries, keeping him out of the endzone. Stanford was held to just three field goals, before Ryan Burns completed a game winning drive with a TD pass to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside with 24 seconds left in the game.
Previously, the Bruins held the Aggies to just 24 points in regulation in an overtime loss at College Station, and they held the BYU Cougars to just 14 points in a win in Provo. While the defense looks great, there isn't a lot to get excited about on offense. Josh Rosen looks nothing like the Heisman candidate he was supposed to be.
Arizona's defense has also been impressive, and these two teams have a history of playing low scoring games. Four of the last five meetings in California have failed to reach 50 points. The total for this Saturday's game is closer to 60. The Bruins have failed to reach the total in 11 of their last 14 home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-01-16 |
Louisville v. Clemson -2 | Top | 36-42 |
Win | 100 | 142 h 31 m | Show |
10* analysis before game time |
10-01-16 |
Oklahoma -1.5 v. TCU | Top | 52-46 |
Win | 100 | 138 h 2 m | Show |
|
10-01-16 |
Wisconsin +10.5 v. Michigan | Top | 7-14 |
Win | 100 | 137 h 43 m | Show |
|
09-30-16 |
Stanford +3.5 v. Washington | Top | 6-44 |
Loss | -110 | 105 h 22 m | Show |
|
09-24-16 |
Arkansas v. Texas A&M -5.5 | Top | 24-45 |
Win | 100 | 84 h 24 m | Show |
|
09-24-16 |
Stanford -155 v. UCLA | Top | 22-13 |
Win | 100 | 83 h 56 m | Show |
|
09-24-16 |
Nebraska v. Northwestern UNDER 48 | Top | 24-13 |
Win | 100 | 83 h 47 m | Show |
|
09-24-16 |
BYU v. West Virginia UNDER 51.5 | Top | 32-35 |
Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
|
09-24-16 |
Syracuse v. Connecticut UNDER 57.5 | Top | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
|
09-23-16 |
USC v. Utah UNDER 47 | Top | 27-31 |
Loss | -107 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on USC@UTAH to go UNDER the total. The Utah Utes are 3-0, but when you really examine those three victories, none of them are all that impressive. Despite the fact that they've played three unranked opponents, they've scored an average of just 26 points per game, ranking 90th nationally. The Trojans haven't looked great defensively, but keep in mind that they've played two defending conference champions (Alabama and Stanford). When matched against a lesser opponent, they didn't look too bad. USC held the Utah State Aggies to just seven total points, and 253 total yards in Week 2. Sam Darnold will step in at quarterback for the Trojans, but he faces a Utes defense that ranks top 10 nationally. Darnold was 5-of-7 for 45 yards with an INT against Stanford last week. Given the history between these two conference rivals, we should expect to see a defensive battle. The last time the Trojans played here they lost 24-21, and the under in 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-22-16 |
Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 57.5 | Top | 26-7 |
Win | 100 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
|
09-17-16 |
USC v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 10-27 |
Win | 100 | 140 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
The Trojans were thoroughly embarrassed in a Week 1 loss to Alabama, losing by a score of 52-6. Most of the damage was done on the ground, with Alabama running for 242 yards and three TDs. USC was unable to stop Christian McCaffrey while losing both of last year's gmes against Stanford by a double digit margin.
McCaffrey ran for over 200 yards with two TDs, and caught four passes for 105 yards and a TD, as well as throwing a TD pass in last year's 41-22 win over USC in the PAC-12 Championship Game. He ran for 140 yards and a pair of TDs in a Week 1 win over Kansas State, and he's well rested ahead of Saturday's clash with the Trojans.
Senior quarterback Ryan Burns wasn't asked to do much in Week 1, but he was efficient throwing for 156 yards and a TD on 14-of-18 passing. The Cardinal have won six of the last eight in this series, and they appear to have things locked in a whole lot tighter than USC so far this season.
Expect McCaffrey to put on a show again at home, and Stanford should run away with this one.
Take STAN,
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-17-16 |
Michigan State +7.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 36-28 |
Win | 100 | 140 h 34 m | Show |
|
09-17-16 |
Texas A&M +4 v. Auburn | Top | 29-16 |
Win | 100 | 137 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies have started each of the last two seasons with five straight wins, but have faded down the stretch, finishing 8-5 in 2014 and 2015. Coach Kevin Sumlin’s reputation as an offensive guru took a hit last season, as poor quarterback play resulted in an average of just 28.3 points per game, finishing 71st nationally.
Trevor Knight is off to a good start since coming over from Oklahoma, and the Aggies offense is looking a lot more dangerous. Knight has thrown for 583 yards and four TDs, and he's ran for over 100 yards and two scores in his first two starts.
The quarterback situation at Auburn isn't quite as optimistic, with sophomore Sean White under center. He threw for just 140 yards with a TD and an INT in a home loss to Clemson in Week 1. White threw for 1166 yards with just one TD and four INTs in limited time as the starter last season.
Auburn has only covered the spread in three of it's last 13 home games, and they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in conference play.
Take AGGIES.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-17-16 |
San Diego State -10 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 42-28 |
Win | 100 | 136 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Diego State Aztecs.
The Northern Illinois Huskies are coming off an ugly 48-17 loss at South Florida, and they face another tough non-conference opponent at home this week. Making matters worse for the Huskies, starting quarterback Drew Hare went down with an injury in last week's loss, and he's out indefinitely. Backup quarterback Ryan Graham started four games for the Huskies last year, including a 55-7 loss to Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl.
The Broncos ran all over NIU in last year's bowl game, and so far in two games to start the 2016 season, Northern Illinois has given up 543 yards and five rushing TDs. San Diego State has one of the top rushing offenses in the country with Donnel Pumphrey, who shredded Cal for 281 yards and three TDs on the ground last week. The Huskies aren't likely to have any answer on defense, and their offense isn't going to be able to keep up. NIU has failed to cover the spread in five straight non-conference games, while the Aztecs have beaten up on inferior opponents, going 5-0 ATS in their last five versus teams with a losing record.
Take SDSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-17-16 |
Alabama v. Ole Miss +11 | Top | 48-43 |
Win | 100 | 84 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
Alabama comes into Mississippi as the defending champions, and undisputed #1 ranked team in the nation. This still looks like a tough spot for the Tide, facing a team that's beat them each of the last two seasons, and playing on the road in a hostile environment. The Rebels lost to Florida State in Week 1, and some might think that somehow makes them vulnerable here in this game. The one thing that I take away from Mississippi's loss to the Seminoles, was that they managed to shut down Dalvin Cook. As impressive as Alabama has been, we haven't seen anybody step up and fill the shoes of Heisman winner Derrick Henry. Bo Scarbrough was expected to be the star, but he's carried the ball just 16 times for 55 yards in two games.
Chad Kelly has thrown for over 500 yards and leads all SEC quarterbacks with seven TD passes. He was the best quarterback in the conference last year, and nothing has changed. The senior lit up Alabama last year, throwing for 341 yards and three TDs, leading the Rebels to a 43-37 win in Tuscaloosa. Given the Rebels previous success against Alabama, and their strong showing defending the run so far this season, I think they should be able to cover this inflated spread.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-16-16 |
Baylor -31 v. Rice | | 38-10 |
Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Baylor Bears.
Baylor has had more than it's fair share of big wins over inferior opposition in recent seasons. Last year's most lopsided win came at home against Rice, by a score of 70-17. They host Rice in the same spot (at home in Week 3) and another blowout should be expected. Rice is 0-2, and it's defense was exposed in each of those games. In a 46-14 loss to Western Kentucky, they were torched for 552 yards in the air. Then the following week in a 31-14 loss to Army, they gave up 348 yards on the ground. The Bears have a more explosive offense than either of those two teams, and they can do it both in the air and on the ground. Rice is 1-6 ATS in it's last seven overall, and 0-7 ATS in it's last seven versus Baylor.
Take BAY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |