Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs OVER 47 | Top | 22-25 | Push | 0 | 329 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER. So based on the overall body of work in the regular season, you would have to say that San Francisco has been the better team. Go back to the final few weeks of the regular season and the playoffs, and you can't say that. San Francisco was lucky in both playoff games against Green Bay and Detroit. Jared Goff and Jordan Love both had big games at San Francisco, and now the Niners defense faces the most dynamic duo in playoff history in a dome at a neutral site. Andy Reid off a bye week should have a full bag of tricks at his disposal, and the Chiefs should get their share of points. The Buffalo Bills ran all over the Chiefs in the divisional round, totaling 182 yards and two TDs on the ground. Expect San Francisco to have success in the running game. Prop bets include: Mahomes most passing yards -155 Kelce most receiving yards +280 Kelce anytime TD +100 CMC over 87.5 rush yards -130 CMC to win MVP +475 CMC 2+ TDs +260 Mahomes over 25.5 rush yards -125 49ers over 1.5 rushing TDs +170 MVP QBvsField = Field +200 | |||||||
02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs +100 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 329 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KC. So based on the overall body of work in the regular season, you would have to say that San Francisco has been the better team. Go back to the final few weeks of the regular season and the playoffs, and you can't say that. San Francisco was lucky in both playoff games against Green Bay and Detroit. It was questionable coaching decisions that cost the Lions, something that has normally been attributed to Kyle Shanahan. San Francisco gave up double digit leads against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, they allowed 21 unanswered points against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and then there is the infamous Super Bowl loss to the Patriots when Shanahan was with Atlanta. The Chiefs coaching staff has dominated opponents in these playoffs, and the offense appears to have flipped a switch after struggling for the first half of the regular season. The Chiefs have the momentum, the better coach, and the better quarterback. I can't bet against that! Prop bets include: Mahomes most passing yards -155 Kelce most receiving yards +280 Kelce anytime TD +100 CMC over 87.5 rush yards -130 CMC to win MVP +475 CMC 2+ TDs +260 Mahomes over 25.5 rush yards -125 49ers over 1.5 rushing TDs +170 | |||||||
01-28-24 | Lions +7 v. 49ers | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 147 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on DET. The Lions are coming off back to back wins, and plenty of momentum with a chance to go to the Super Bowl. Their defense has been suspect, but perhaps in a "bend don't break" fashion. The 49ers on the other hand got quite lucky that the Green Bay Packers missed a key field goal last week. Brock Purdy appeared to struggle at times, and the young QB is facing more pressure than he's ever faced. Jared Goff has been here before, and he's looked pretty solid throwing for 564 yards, three TDs on 74 percent passing in this post-season. I expect Detroit to get their share of points, and at least hang with San Francisco. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-28-24 | Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 44 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Over. The Chiefs offense was humming in a bad weather game in Buffalo last week, albeit against a banged up Buffalo defense. That being said, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce appear to have their swagger back. The Chiefs defense had no answers for Josh Allen and the Bills offense, and if it wasn't for a few bad drops by Bills receivers, Buffalo likely wins that game. After Josh Allen ran for 72 yards and two TDs, you would expect Lamar Jackson to run all over this banged up Kansas City defense. These teams have scored 48+ combined points in each of the last five head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills -145 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -145 | 139 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BUF. Ever since the Bills overtime loss at Kansas City in the 2022 Playoffs, they have been waiting for this moment. They get the Chiefs, and this time they get the home field advantage. The Bills have won six straight, a winning streak that began with a 20-17 win at Kansas City. Josh Allen has a quarterback rating of 102.4 at home, and just 83 on the road. He ran for 74 yards and a TD against the Steelers. What do I expect from each member of the Buffalo Bills in this game? Whatever it takes! GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-21-24 | Bucs +7 v. Lions | 23-31 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TB. The Lions are in a tough spot here. They are so hyped up, the talk of the town and a huge home favorite in this divisional playoff matchup versus Tampa. I think you have to ask yourself though, what makes Detroit a favorite. It surely can't be the coaching matchup between Todd Bowles and Dan Campbell? You can't tell me that the Lions defense is better than the Bucs. Maybe Lions fans believe Jared Goff is superior to Baker Mayfield. The numbers don't really back that up, with Goff throwing for two more TDs and two more picks. Goff has just a slight advantage in yardage and completion percentage. This looks like a let down spot for Detroit, and even at their best I don't believe they are seven points better than Tampa. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 103 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Under. The easiest way to lose a fortune betting the NFL is to bet based on last week's results. We just saw the Packers go into Dallas and run all over the Cowboys. The bad news for Green Bay is that Mike McCarthy isn't coaching the 49ers, and they aren't getting anything for free here. The 49ers held opponents to 17 points per game during the regular season, and opponents averaged less than 90 yards per game on the ground. Coming off a bye, we should see San Francisco cause all sorts of problems for Jordan Love. The Packers have their hands full with CMC, and when on offense I expect the 49ers to burn up plenty of clock. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-20-24 | Texans +10 v. Ravens | 10-34 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 3* play on HOU. This is more of a play against Baltimore than it is an endorsement of CJ Stroud and the Texans. The fact of the matter is that Lamar Jackson is 1-3 in his career in the Playoffs, and has thrown more picks (5) than TDs (3) in those games. The Ravens are coming off a first round bye, and they rested the starters in the final week of the regular season. This strategy might backfire here against a hot Houston team. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-15-24 | Eagles v. Bucs +3 | Top | 9-32 | Win | 100 | 94 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TB. The Eagles are a complete mess, coming into the playoffs as losers of five of their last six. Jalen Hurts appears to be battling injuries, and he's thrown more picks (5) than touchdowns (4) over his last five starts. No AJ Brown for the Eagles, and the defense is banged up on the back end. They might even have to move a corner to safety if Blankenship can't go. The Bucs defense is 100 percent healthy, and Baker Mayfield will play despite a sore ankle and bruised ribs. This looks like a case of the wrong team favored, and I'll take the home dog plus the points. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-14-24 | Rams +3 v. Lions | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAR. The Rams are peaking at the right time, coming into the playoffs as winners of seven of their last eight. The one loss during that span came in OT on the road at Baltimore. The Rams offense is humming with former Detroit Lion Mathew Stafford at QB. Stafford has a Super Bowl ring, McVay is the youngest head coach to make a Super Bowl and the youngest to win a Super Bowl. Cooper Kupp owns a Super Bowl MVP trophy. The Lions had a fantastic season, but they were more impressive in the first half of the season than they have been in the second half. Last week they played their starters, and that might prove to be costly if LaPorta can't play Sunday. The Rams have the edge at quarterback and superior coaching, I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans OVER 44 | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 126 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Browns offense is a different animal since Joe Flacco arrived. He's thrown for over 1600 yards and 13 touchdowns in just five games. Not only does Flacco have a Super Bowl ring, he also has a Super Bowl MVP Trophy in his collection. The Browns have gone over in seven straight road games, and they have gone over four of five with Flacco as the starter. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-13-24 | Browns -145 v. Texans | 14-45 | Loss | -145 | 57 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CLE. The Browns offense is a different animal since Joe Flacco arrived. He's thrown for over 1600 yards and 13 touchdowns in just five games. Not only does Flacco have a Super Bowl ring, he also has a Super Bowl MVP Trophy in his collection. He will lead a Browns team that ranks first in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 270 yards per game. On the other side we have a rookie QB in CJ Stroud making his first ever playoff start. We also have Kevin Stefanski who won Coach of the Year in 2020, opposite a rookie head coach in DeMeco Ryans. Since 2002 rookie quarterbacks making their first playoff start as an underdog are 2-8 straight up. All quarterbacks making their playoff debut are 25-40 ATS since 2022. Defense wins championships, and experience is priceless. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan OVER 55.5 | Top | 13-34 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Over. Michigan ranked #1 in the country in scoring defense this season, allowing less than 20 points per game. They are coming off a Rose Bowl win over Alabama, holding Jalen Milroe to just 116 passing yards and sacking him six times. Why is this game going to be different? Well Michael Penix Jr. is by far the best QB this Michigan defense will have seen this season. During the regular season the best QB they saw was Kyle McCord, and Ohio State scored 24 points on the road, outdoors in the winter at Ann Arbor. This is an indoor game in a dome, with an artificial surface, and that should favor the Huskies. Michigan has gone over the total in 16 of their last 21 neutral site games since 2004. While Alabama's offensive line struggled, and Jalen Milroe couldn't get the ball out quick enough, Michael Penix Jr is more than capable of getting the ball out in a hurry, and avoiding pressure. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-07-24 | Bills -160 v. Dolphins | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 162 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BUF. The Bills face a must win situation at Miami in the final week of the season, and the good news is that they appear to be peaking at the right time. They have won four straight, and two of those wins came on the road. The Dolphins are trending in the opposite direction, coming off a blowout loss at Baltimore. Despite all the early season hype, the fact remains is that Miami has just one win versus a winning team in their last 30 games overall. The Dolphins come limping into the final game of the season with a dozen starters listed as questionable. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-07-24 | Rams +3.5 v. 49ers | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 158 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAR. Both teams will rest starters, I'll take the dog getting points. Carson Wentz has an opportunity to show what he can do against the San Francisco backups. Last year the Rams lost in overtime 19-16 at Seattle in Week 18. This game has a similar feel to it. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-07-24 | Seahawks -165 v. Cardinals | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 157 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on SEA. The Seahawks just need to win at Arizona, and this looks like a let down spot for the Cardinals. Arizona is coming off a big upset win over the Eagles as a double digit dog on the road, and they wrap things up at home where they are just 2-5 this season. It seems to me that the Cardinals proved everything they wanted to prove last week, and avoiding injury is going to be the primary concern for Kyler Murray and company. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-07-24 | Jets v. Patriots -135 | 17-3 | Loss | -135 | 154 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NE. No way I am backing the Jets on the road in New England in potentially the last game for Bill Belichick. Both these teams are bad, but New England has at least been competitive lately. The Pats are 2-2 in their last four games, with losses to the Chiefs and Bills. The Jets have lost four straight on the road, and their offense is just the epitome of futility. The Pats are 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head to head meetings. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-01-24 | Texas v. Washington +4.5 | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 461 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on WASH. Ask yourself what is more impressive... beating Alabama in Week 2, or beating Oregon twice including at a neutral site in the PAC12 Championship game. Texas might be the more athletic team with higher end talent, but this doesn't look like a great matchup for the Longhorns. While Texas ranks 1st in the BIG12 in rushing defense, the Longhorns rank 10th against the pass. That may prove to be a concern against Kalen Deboer and his Heisman candidate quarterback and star studded receiving corps. The Huskies did beat Texas in a bowl game last year, and they appear to be a live dog here in the Sugar Bowl. I'll take the points. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-01-24 | Alabama +110 v. Michigan | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -100 | 700 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Alabama. Michigan has been consistent all year long, but they haven't played the same schedule as Alabama. The only loss on Alabama's schedule came in non-conference play against Texas in Week 2. Who did Michigan play in Week 2? The Wolverines didn't play a ranked team until the Penn State game in mid November. Jim Harbaugh is just 5-16 in his career versus Top 10 ranked teams, while Nick Saban is 9-3 in the College Football Playoffs. Michigan's offensive line has bullied opposing defenses, but if Alabama can win the line of scrimmage against Georgia, they should be able to hold their own against Michigan. Jalen Milroe is far more dynamic than JJ McCarthy, and Alabama's defense held Georgia to 2.5 yards per carry in the SEC Championship Game. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-31-23 | Saints v. Bucs -155 | 23-13 | Loss | -155 | 159 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TB. I don't know how Colin Cowherd can sleep at night. He looks a fool after spending the last several years disparaging Baker Mayfield. Baker might not be an MVP candidate, but he's having himself a pretty solid season. He has as many TD passes as Tua Tagovailoa, and fewer INTs. The Saints offense is heavily dependent on Alvin Kamara, who is expected to play through an illness on Sunday. Kamara had 11 carries and 13 receptions in a 26-9 loss at home to Tampa in Week 4. Derek Carr had his worst game of the season throwing for 127 yards and no TDs on 23 of 37 passing. This just looks like a tough matchup for the Saints. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-31-23 | Dolphins v. Ravens -160 | 19-56 | Win | 100 | 159 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Baltimore. Both these teams are coming off huge wins. Baltimore won big in San Francisco as a 5.5 point underdog, while Miami won a game against a team with a winning record for the first time in their last 29 games. Both these teams need to win to clinch their division, but I expect Miami to suffer a let down here on the road. At this time of year every team is banged up, but Miami is really battling injury concerns. It's one thing for Miami to win at home against the Cowboys with a late field goal, winning on the road versus the NFL's #1 ranked scoring defense is a whole other story. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-31-23 | Raiders v. Colts -180 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 48 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on IND. The Colts are in a three way tie for 1st in the AFC South, and they host the Raiders who's playoff hopes are slim at best. The Raiders are banged up with five starters on offense listed as questionable, and a couple of key players on defense as well. The Raiders only gained 205 total yards, and were out-gained by more than 100 yards last week, but somehow beat the Chiefs 20-14. Aidan O'Connell threw for just 62 yards on 9-of-21 passing in that game. His home away splits are not encouraging, he's thrown for 646 yards, 2 TDs and 5 INTs on 50 percent passing in four starts on the road. Jonathan Taylor is well overdue for a breakout game, and I expect him to be big for the Colts here today. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-30-23 | Ole Miss +5 v. Penn State | 38-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on MISS. So far favorites have struggled this bowl season, and I think Penn State is asked to cover too many points here in the Peach Bowl. The Rebels are surrounded by an aura of positivity right now, while the Nittany Lions lost both coordinators on offense and defense. James Franklyn is just 4-4 in bowl games at Penn State. I'll take the points with a team that should be a helluva lot happier about being at The Peach Bowl. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-29-23 | Missouri -120 v. Ohio State | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 559 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIZZ. The Buckeyes are a better team than Missouri, and even with several starters opting out, they should still have a talent advantage. Disparity in talent isn't the be all and end all in bowl games though, as some teams simply want it more. Playing in the Cotton Bowl exceeds all expectations for Missouri, but it's a bitter disappointment for the Buckeyes. We know Kyle McCord is gone, Marvin Harrison Jr. is highly unlikely to play. Brady Cook, Cody Shrader and Luther Burden are expected to play. As good as the Buckeyes defense was this season, I challenge you to name the QB & WR duo they faced that would compare to Cook and Burden. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-28-23 | Arizona -165 v. Oklahoma | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 570 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on ARI. The Sooners will be a shell of the team we saw beat Texas in the Red River Rivalry. They won't have QB Dillon Gabriel in the Alamo Bowl, but Jackson Arnold is highly touted and gets a chance to prove himself. He was a five star recruit, but that doesn't always translate right away. Noah Fifita on the other hand stepped in and turned Arizona into a juggernaut. The Wildcats come in riding a six game winning streak with four of those six wins coming against ranked teams. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-28-23 | Jets v. Browns -5.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 100 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Cleveland. The Jets are coming off a dubious 30-28 home win over Washington. They blew a 20-0 lead, but hit the game winning 54 yard field goal in the final seconds. Trevor Siemian threw for 217 yards on 27-of-49 passing against the NFL's worst defense. Now the Jets are on the road on a short week, and they face the NFL's top pass defense. The Browns are on a roll since the arrival of Joe Flacco, who threw for 368 yards and three TDs in a win at Houston on Sunday. The Browns are 7-1 at home this season, and the Jets have failed to cover in three straight road games. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-27-23 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma State +4 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 546 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on OKST. I like the Cowboys here against an Aggies team with a third string QB, an interim coach and a ton of players in the portal or declared for the NFL draft. Oklahoma State will have Ollie Gordon ready to go, and he was the leading rusher in the BIG12 this year. Mike Gundy has a record of 11-6 all time in bowls, putting him among the active leaders in bowl wins. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-26-23 | Texas State -170 v. Rice | 45-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 2* play on TXST. The Bobcats started the season off with a bang, upsetting Baylor in Week 1. They won seven games in the Sun Belt, and their offense ranked among the top teams in the county averaging 36 points per game. Rice had to win back to back games at the end of the year to qualify for a bowl, after quarterback JT Daniels quit football all together over injury concerns. Freshman AJ Padgett took over, and he was solid in four starts. He only faced one team with a winning record, throwing for 182 yards and two TDs on 17-of-28 passing in a 34-14 loss to UTSA. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers -5 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 188 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SF. A lot of people are picking these two teams to meet in the Super Bowl, but the Ravens appear to be a team due for some regression. San Francisco had it's three game losing skid in the middle of the season, but since then they appear to have forgotten how to lose. The Niners have covered in six straight, and they are 13-1 SU in their last 14 home games. This looks like a good spot to fade the Ravens. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-24-23 | Patriots v. Broncos -5.5 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 163 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Denver. The 3-11 Patriots are likely going to find it tough to get up for a Christmas Even game on the road in Denver. This team has nine starters listed as questionable just 48 hrs prior to the game. We know there will be a wholesale change over the off-season, and we don't expect the compete level to be very high in these final few games. This is a Denver team that can still make the playoffs, but they need to win this game. Russell Wilson has thrown for 1,382 yards, 13 TDs and just one INT at home this season. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears -160 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 170 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CHI. The Bears are back baby .... winning three of their last five overall, and the two losses during that span came in close games on the road. While the Bears are still playing to win, you can't say the same for Arizona. The Cards are coming off a punishing loss on the road at San Francisco, and they are 1-6 on the road. Playing in Chicago in December isn't an ideal spot for a dome team on the road. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-24-23 | Commanders v. Jets -170 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 167 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYJ. After being embarrassed in a 30-0 loss at Miami last week, this looks like a good bounce back spot for the Jets. They host a Washington Commanders team that ranks dead last in total defense. Washington is allowing over 30 points per game, and they come in as losers of five straight. The Commanders have lost five of six on the road, and three straight against the Jets. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-24-23 | Colts +1.5 v. Falcons | 10-29 | Loss | -110 | 165 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on INDY. Gardiner Minshew threw for 215 yards and three TDs on 18-of-28 passing in a win over the Steelers last week. Indy is actually 8-4 in the games that Minshew has started or played the majority of the snaps. While the Colts are in good shape at QB, the Falcons have benched their starter. Now Heinicke might not be much of a drop off, but he's proven he isn't much of a difference maker either. The Colts won both meetings last year, and they come into Atlanta as the better team playing better ball. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-23-23 | Coastal Carolina v. San Jose State -8.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on SJST. So who does Coastal Carolina have in the transfer portal? Well the list of guys who aren't in the portal might be shorter. The Chanticleers have more players in the portal than any other team this Bowl Season. San Jose State comes in riding a six game winning streak, and senior QB Chevan Cordiero threw 13 TDs and just one INT in those games. This looks like a very one-sided set up, and it shouldn't be too hard for the Spartans to win this game by double digits. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-19-23 | UTSA -12.5 v. Marshall | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 156 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UTSA. In the press conference with Roadrunners head coach Jeff Trailor. he said that his team is 100% all in for this bowl game. He also said that winning a bowl game is the one thing that his team hasn't yet accomplished during his tenure. Marshall's head coach Charles Huff wasn't as optimistic about his team, saying that he wasn't surprised to hear that the starting QB was in the transfer portal. "There isn’t a lot of money for NIL and the fans hate him," Huff said. "The kid has been miserable, the fans hated him" Between Huff's comments and the number of players in the portal, we have to fade the Herd here. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-18-23 | Eagles -3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 176 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI. What happened to the 10-1 Eagles? They are now the 10-3 Eagles after losing back to back blowouts versus San Francisco and Dallas. The good news is that they aren't playing the Niners or the Cowboys this week, and this looks like a potential "GET RIGHT" game for Philly. The Seahawks have lost four of their last five overall, and Geno Smith is banged up. Drew Lock came in and threw for 269 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs in the loss at San Francisco last Sunday. Lock has thrown as many picks (20) as he has TDs over his last three seasons. Smith has a groin injury that normally requires at least two weeks to heal, so even if he can play he would likely be limited. **UPDATE** - so we are now less than 18 hrs from kickoff and we still have no clarification on Geno Smith, and breaking news that Jalen Hurts might not play due to illness. If it is Marcus Mariotta, note that his last game at Seattle he threw for 229 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT on 13-of-20 passing in a win with the Falcons last year. He also scored a rushing TD in the win. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-17-23 | Cowboys v. Bills -124 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 147 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Bills. The Cowboys are flying high, winners of five straight. Four of those five wins came at home, and the one road game was at Carolina. They caught the Eagles in a tough spot, but this looks like a let down spot in an outdoor game in December in Buffalo. The Bills need this win to keep their playoff hopes alive, and they are 5-1 at home. The Cowboys are just 3-3 on the road, and all three of their road wins came versus teams with a losing record. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-17-23 | Commanders v. Rams OVER 50 | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Commanders are in last place in the NFC East, and they rank dead last in the NFL in scoring defense allowing over 30 points per game. They have allowed an NFL high 266 passing yards per game. The Rams have scored 30+ points in three straight games, and Matthew Stafford threw 10 TDs and just one INT in those games. The over is 5-1 in the Commanders last six overall, and the Rams have gone over in four of their last six. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -142 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CLE. The Browns defense has been light out at home. They have held their opponents to an average of 13 points per game, while winning six of seven home games. Chicago is coming off back to back wins over division rivals, but this looks like a let down spot for the Bears. In two starts for Cleveland, Joe Flacco has thrown for 565 yards, 5 TDs and 2 INTs. The Bears are 2-9 in their last 11 road games, and they lost 26-6 in their last game in Cleveland. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-16-23 | California +3 v. Texas Tech | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 36 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CAL. The Bears might be the more motivated team here coming into the Bowl off three straight wins. They had a rough schedule, with all but one of their losses coming against ranked teams. The only exception was a 14-10 loss to an SEC team (Auburn). Texas Tech has 15 players in the transfer portal, including two of their top three receivers. Cal might be all fired up by the news that the leading rusher in the PAC12 (Jaydn Ott) is staying at Cal for another season. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-16-23 | Broncos v. Lions OVER 46 | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 128 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Lions have allowed an average of 30 points per game in their last five overall, going 3-2 in those games. Jared Goff struggled on the road last week, but he's back home in the dome where he's played much better. The Broncos come in as winners of six of their last seven overall, and they are finally getting their money's worth from Russell Wilson. These teams have gone over in four of the last five meetings. The Lions have gone over the number in four of their last five overall. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-16-23 | Miami-OH v. Appalachian State -6.5 | 9-13 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on APP. It was a down year for the MAC in my opinion, and that is evidenced by the fact that the conference champions had a QB that averaged well below 100 yards per game, with 2 TDs and 2 INTs in eight starts. Now he's in the transfer portal, leaving them with no experienced quarterbacks. The Sun Belt is the superior conference, as evidenced by their strong representation in the bowls. App State won five of their final six games, and that included an upset at JMU on Gameday. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-10-23 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | 13-33 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Eagles had been getting it done with smoke and mirrors for weeks, but the bubble burst in a home loss to San Francisco on Sunday. Now they head to Dallas to face a well rested Cowboys team that has been firing on all cylinders. Dak Prescott has averaged well over 300 yards per passing per game over his last five. The Eagles rank 30th in the NFL against the pass, allowing over 260 yards per game. This is a mismatch, and a bad spot for the Eagles. These teams have gone over in six straight. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-10-23 | Eagles v. Cowboys -135 | Top | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 248 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DAL. The Eagles had been getting it done with smoke and mirrors for weeks, but the bubble burst in a home loss to San Francisco on Sunday. Now they head to Dallas to face a well rested Cowboys team that has been firing on all cylinders. Dak Prescott has averaged well over 300 yards per passing per game over his last five. The Eagles rank 30th in the NFL against the pass, allowing over 260 yards per game. This is a mismatch, and a bad spot for the Eagles. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-10-23 | Bills v. Chiefs -160 | 20-17 | Loss | -160 | 159 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BUF. There are those who will insist that the Bills are better than their record indicates. They certainly deserved better in a loss at Philly in their last game, but this isn't exactly a good spot on the road at Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off a loss at Green Bay on Sunday night, and they are 16-4 straight up in their last 20 overall. The Bills may be distracted by off the field issues, and playing in a tough spot on the road this week isn't ideal. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-10-23 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 48.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. There are those who will insist that the Bills are better than their record indicates. They certainly deserved better in a loss at Philly in their last game, but this isn't exactly a good spot on the road at Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off a loss at Green Bay on Sunday night, and they are 16-4 straight up in their last 20 overall. The Bills may be distracted by off the field issues, and playing in a tough spot on the road this week isn't ideal. The over is 3-2 in the last five meetings, but the number was at least six points higher in all five of those games. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-10-23 | Vikings v. Raiders OVER 40 | 3-0 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The under is 6-1 in the Raiders last seven home games. It's not like they have faced offensive juggernauts though. Their four home wins came against the Jets, the Patriots, the Giants and the Packers. Their last home game was a 31-17 loss to Kansas City. Minnesota is expecting Justin Jefferson back, and the Vikes have gone over in five straight in the month of December. These teams have gone over the number in four straight meetings, and the total for this game is far lower than it was in those previous meetings. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-10-23 | Colts -135 v. Bengals | 14-34 | Loss | -135 | 155 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on IND. The Colts opened as the favorite, but public money has been coming in on the Bengals. I think there is recency bias at play, after Jake Browning had a big game in last week's win at Jacksonville. It might not matter how well Browning plays if the Bengals defense continues to struggle. They have allowed 30+ points in three of their last four games, and the one exception was a loss to Pittsburgh when they gave 421 total yards but the Steelers only converted those yards into 16 points. Only the Washington Commanders are rank worse than Cincinnati in total defense this season. As good as Browning looked last week, we've seen Gardner Minshew play well in the league for years. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-03-23 | Browns v. Rams -172 | 19-36 | Win | 100 | 158 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAR. I have cashed three straight tickets in Browns games, going against them last Sunday in Denver, and cashing with them as a home favorite a week earlier against the Steelers. They didn't just lose the game in Denver, they also lost QB Dorian Thoimpson-Robinson and Myles Garrett to injuries. Now they are on the road for the second time in back to back weeks, facing a Rams team that is flying high with Stafford, Kupp and Williams all back on offense. While Cleveland owns the league's top ranked defense, the Browns have allowed an average of more than 30 points in their last four road games. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-03-23 | 49ers -120 v. Eagles | Top | 42-19 | Win | 100 | 159 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SF. A rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game is also a revenge game for the Niners. The Eagles have already avenged their Super Bowl loss, and they have a string of wins in tight games that could have gone the other way. What goes around comes around, and this time I expect San Francisco to execute their revenge. They come in with extra rest, and a healthier team. The Eagles win over the Bills on Sunday appears a bit lucky, getting out-gained 505-378, with fewer first downs and less time of possession. I don't think the Eagles get away with that here in what looks like a let down spot against the Niners. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-03-23 | Broncos +3 v. Texans | 17-22 | Loss | -105 | 155 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DEN. I bet against Houston last week, saying I expected some regression to the mean. The fact that they went down to the wire with the Jags likely means they are still a real public team, and I am not sold on the Texans as a favorite. They lost LG Tytus Howard with a knee injury on Sunday, and it turned out to be significant as CJ Stroud was sacked twice on the final series. The Texans also have a kicker who has never hit a field goal of 50+ yards, and he missed twice last week. Denver is a role, and Russell Wilson looks like the guy that the Broncos thought they were getting when they made the trade with Seattle. The Broncos have rattled off five straight wins, and three of those games were decided by three points or less. Two of Denver's five losses have come by three points or less. I'll take the hot team plus the points here. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-03-23 | Cardinals v. Steelers -5.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 26 m | Show | |
7* | |||||||
12-03-23 | Falcons v. Jets +3 | 13-8 | Loss | -118 | 104 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a free play on NYJ. The Jets offense is bad, and yeah they don't have a QB. They still have twice as many home wins as Atlanta has on the road. Yet the dome team comes into The Meadowlands in December as a favorite. If you are hanging your hat on having the better QB, you might be disappointed with Desmond Ridder going up against one of the NFL's best defenses in the bitter cold in New York. I'll take the dog, I'll take the points with the J E T S .... Jets! Jets! Jets! GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-02-23 | SMU v. Tulane -165 | Top | 26-14 | Loss | -165 | 145 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Tulane. | |||||||
12-02-23 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 75 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BAMA. It would appear that recency bias is at play here. This line opened at -3.5 but after a near loss in the Iron Bowl the public is lining up to bet against Alabama. Georgia is going for 30 wins in a row, but the idea that they are significantly better than Alabama is lacking some critical evidence. Alabama lost at home to Texas in Week 2. Georgia played Ball State at home that week. These teams are actually pretty far apart when it comes to strength of schedule. History favors Alabama, who has beaten the Dawgs in 2012, 2018 and 2021 in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia hasn't had to face a lot of adversity, while we have seen Alabama trail 20-7 to Tennessee at halftime and come storming back in the second half. We saw them snatch victory out of the jaws of defeat more than once this season, including the Iron Bowl last week. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-27-23 | Bears v. Vikings -150 | 12-10 | Loss | -150 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MIN. The Vikings five game win streak came to an end in Denver, in a game decided by just one point. They are back home to take on the Chicago Bears, who are in last place in the NFC North. Justin Fields is back, and the Bears offense has averaged 27 points per game in the games he has started and finished. The points haven't translated into wins though, as the Bears are 1-6 when he starts. They are also 1-6 in their last seven games against the Vikings. The Bears have lost nine of their last 10 road games, and 17 of their last 20 overall. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-26-23 | Browns v. Broncos +3 | Top | 12-29 | Win | 100 | 269 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on Denver. | |||||||
11-26-23 | Steelers -125 v. Bengals | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 36 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on PIT. I bet against the Steelers last week when they were on the road facing a rookie quarterback. Now I am backing the Steelers in the same situation this week. Why? Pittsburgh came very close to winning in Cleveland last week, and the Browns have the league's #1 ranked defense. Cincinnati doesn't have an elite defense to hang their hat on. The firing of OC Matt Canada might also provide a spark for the Steelers offense. This looks like a disaster waiting to happen for Jake Browning. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-26-23 | Jaguars -115 v. Texans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 139 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on JAX. This is a huge revenge spot for Jacksonville, who lost 37-17 at home to Houston earlier this season. They have since won six of seven games, and that includes road wins at Pittsburgh and New Orleans. The Texans rank 2nd in the NFL in passing and CJ Stroud is making a case to be in the conversation for MVP. The 22 year old rookie has thrown four INTs in his last two starts, and he might be due for a let down here against the Jags. Jacksonville out-gained the Texans 404-366 in total yard, had 22 first downs to 15, and won the time of possession in the first meeting, but lost the turnover battle 2-0. It's payback time, and I expect the Jags to come on top in the area that matters the most, points on the scoreboard. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-25-23 | Florida State -6.5 v. Florida | Top | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 112 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on FSU. The injury to Jordan Travis was heartbreaking not just for Florida State fans, but for all college football fans. The Florida Gators have also lost their starting QB, and Graham Mertz was having a stellar season at Florida. The Seminoles are hoping Tate Rodemaker can do what Cardale Jones did back in 2015. He steps into a pretty good situation, with plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. Rodemaker has been at FSU for four seasons, so he has a huge advantage in comparison to freshman Max Brown. In a battle between backup QBs, you would think both teams will look to establish the run. That doesn't bode well for the Gators, who rank 12th in the SEC versus the run allowing 5 yards per carry. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-25-23 | Alabama -14.5 v. Auburn | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 84 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BAMA. A one loss Alabama team still has a chance to make the playoffs, but a close game here against an Auburn team that lost by three scores at home to New Mexico State last week isn't going to look good on the resume. Alabama needs to win, and win big in the Iron Bowl. There will be those that say "the is a rivalry game" ... but I would counter with the fact that Alabama has won seven of the last nine, and six of those seven wins have come by more than 14 points. I am not sure these teams have been farther apart in recent seasons. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-25-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan -156 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on MICH. So the Wolverines have owned Ohio State in the last two meetings, and we have to ask ourselves what has changed? Michigan is basically the same team that ran for 252 yards and three TDs in a blowout win in Columbus last year. Blake Corum was hurt in that game, and he's full of piss and vinegar heading into this game. CJ Stroud threw for 349 yards and two TDs in a losing effort last year, and the NFL MVP candidate is replaced by Kyle McCord, who has looked rather pedestrian. Marvin Harrison Jr. has the potential to be the X-Factor, but only if the offensive line can hold up long enough for him to get down field. The Buckeyes defense may have improved, but I think that is just going to result in another loss, this time in a low scoring game. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-24-23 | Oregon State v. Oregon -13.5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 64 h 2 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on the Ducks. It will be tough to pick up the pieces after a tough loss for the Beavers. Despite dominating time of possession and total yards at home versus Washington, they lost by a score of 22-20. Now they play on the road at Eugene, facing a Ducks team looking to avenge last year's loss in this rivalry game. This is just a bad matchup for the Beavers, who lean heavily on their rushing attack. The Ducks have allowed just 96 rush yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry this season. Oregon is 6-0 at home this season, and the average margin of victory in those wins is 37 points. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on DET. The Lions fell victim to Murphy's Law on Sunday, turning the ball fourr four times and losing time of possession by 40:24 to 19:36. This happens to even good teams, but only great teams are able to overcome all that and come away with a win. This sets up the Lions for a strong performance here against the Packers on Thanksgiving. This looks like a terrible spot for Green Bay, who had to sign a couple backs off the practice squad after losing two of their top three running backs last week. In fact all three of their running backs on the depth chart are listed in the injury report, and Aaron Jones is doubtful. Additionally there are four defensive starters listed as questionable and another offensive lineman is banged up. This just looks like a let down spot for the Packers coming off a home win over LA last week. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -142 | 21-17 | Loss | -142 | 55 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on KC. The Chiefs defense has carried them so far, but the offense has been rather pedestrian. Don't be surprised if they come out of the bye week with some new wrinkles. Andy Reid is considered to be the best in the business when he has an extra week to scheme. He's 28-4 straight up in his career when coming off a bye week. Expect Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce to turn back the clock here on Monday Night Football. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-19-23 | Vikings v. Broncos -135 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 101 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on Denver. Everyone is a Vikings fan after they put together a five game winning streak. Keep in mind wins came over the Bears, Falcons, Packers, Saints and they caught the 49ers in a tough spot. Josh Dobbs has stepped in and done a great job since the injury to Kirk Cousins, and he previously played well for Arizona. It didn't translate into wins though, as the Cardinals were 1-7 with Dobbs as their starter. A road game against a Denver team that has also turned things around might be a reality check for the Vikings. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-19-23 | Chargers v. Packers UNDER 44 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 156 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Chargers look like one of the best teams in the NFL on paper, but their coach leaves a lot of points on the table and it often ends up costing them in close games. Scoring on the road in Green Bay might be a challenge. The Packers quietly rank 11th overall in scoring defense. The problem for Green Bay is that their offense stinks, and they have a ton of injuries at skill positions. Look for another low score here at Lambeau. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-19-23 | Steelers v. Browns -180 | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 156 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Cleveland. While Deshaun Watson won't play QB fort the Browns, it's not like Ben Roethisburger is under center for the Steelers. In a matchup between DTR and Kenny Pickett, it should come down to defense and pounding the rock. We saw Cleveland go into Pittsburgh in Week 2 and outgain the Steelers 408-255 in total yards. Cleveland ran for 198 yards in that game despite losing Nick Chubb for the rest of the year to a gruesome injury. This is a revenge spot for the Browns, and I fancy the home team to sneak away with a win here. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-18-23 | Central Florida v. Texas Tech -137 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TTU. | |||||||
11-18-23 | UCLA +6.5 v. USC | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UCLA. Both these teams are looking to break out of a slump. UCLA is coming off back to back losses to Arizona and Arizona State, while USC is coming off losses to Washington and Oregon. The Trojans are asked to cover a big spread, but their defense can't stop anybody. USC has allowed opponents to average 43 points per game in their last seven overall. The Trojans beat the Bruins 48-45 last year, and a similar score should be expected here. I'll take the points in a game that I expect to be decided in the final minute. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-17-23 | South Florida v. UTSA -15.5 | 21-49 | Win | 100 | 80 h 43 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UTSA. The Roadrunners have won six in a row, and the average margin of victory in those wins was over 17 points. A home game against South Florida figures to be another blowout win. The Bulls are coming off a home win over Temple, but they were lucky that the Owls turned the ball over four times. This South Florida defense ranks among the worst in the country, giving up over 450 yards per game. Frank Harris and the Roadrunners offense should be able to take full advantage here at home. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-14-23 | Toledo v. Bowling Green +11 | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on BGRN. The Rockets are 6-0 in the MAC, and they will be a double digit road favorite here. Their last two road wins were both close games decided by one score. Bowling Green comes in riding a four game winning streak, and last year they won outright 42-35 at Toledo. The Rockets lean heavily on their running game, but Bowling Green has one of the top rushing defenses in the MAC. They have held opponents to 3.9 yards per carry, and 137 yards per game. I'll take the home dog in this spot. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-12-23 | Falcons -130 v. Cardinals | 23-25 | Loss | -130 | 159 h 24 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on ATL. Just then it looks like they are in full tank mode, the Cardinals announce that Kyler Murray will start versus the Falcons. Don't let that fool you, they are still a hot mess. The offensive line is riddled with injuries, and Murray hasn't played in almost a year. The Falcons 26th ranked run defense might struggle to contain the Falcons dynamic duo of Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson. At the end of the day, the Falcons have a lot more to play for at this point in the season and that should play out on the field. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-12-23 | Packers v. Steelers -160 | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 156 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on PIT. The Steelers have mastered the art of winning ugly, and this week's home game against Green Bay has "ugly" written all over it. The Packers ended a four game losing streak with a home win over the Browns last week. They faced Rams backup Brett Rypien who threw for 130 yards and an INT on 13-of-28 passing. The Steelers got the running game going last week against the Titans, averaging 5.5 yards per carry (166 yards and a TD on 30 attempts). That success should continue against Packers defense that ranks among the worst in the NFL against the run. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-12-23 | 49ers v. Jaguars UNDER 45 | Top | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 155 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Under. San Francisco comes out of the bye week looking to get back on track. The defense should be in good shape with Chase Young making his debut. They have allowed just 16.5 points per game on the road this season. The offense is still a question with a pair of starters out on the offensive line. Brock Purdy has thrown five picks in his last three starts, and the Niners scored 17 in all three of those games. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-11-23 | USC v. Oregon -14.5 | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on ORE. The Ducks are dominant at home, where they crushed Colorado by a score of 42-6 earlier this season. That's the same Colorado team that pushed USC to the brink in LA a week later. The Ducks crushed Utah 35-6 in Salt Lake City two weeks ago, and that same Utah team won outright at USC. The Trojans have lost three of four, and coming off a home loss to Washington this looks like a let down spot. The last time the Trojans played a road game as an underdog they lost by 28 at Notre Dame. The Ducks are better than Notre Dame. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-11-23 | Tennessee v. Missouri UNDER 59 | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 96 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. The Vols aren't the offensive juggernaut they were a year ago, but they have been pretty solid defensively. They might not see the best of this Missouri offense, as star wide receiver Luther Burden was injured last week in the loss to Georgia. Brady Cook was sacked three times, throwing for 212 yards a TD and a pair of INTs on 14-of-30 passing in the loss to Georgia last week. The Tigers have gone under this number in four of their last six home games. Tennessee has failed to reach the total in two of their three road games. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-11-23 | Utah v. Washington UNDER 52.5 | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. After the Huskies beat Oregon at home a few weeks ago, they followed up with a 15-7 win over Arizona State. It's fair to say that they suffered a let down, and this looks like another let down spot coming off a 52-42 win over USC. The Utah Utes are a tough opponent, and the weather here in Washington could give them a boost. If the wind and rain in the forecast puts the damper on the passing game, the Huskies could be in four a fight. Utah has a Top 10 scoring defense allowing just 15.9 points per game. This game could be a low scoring battle. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-11-23 | Texas Tech v. Kansas OVER 61 | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. The Jayhawks are 5-0 at home and they have scored an average of 42 points in those games. They host Texas Tech Saturday, and the Red Raiders have owned them over the years. Texas Tech has won nine of the last 10 head to head meetings, and they scored 40+ in each of the last two meetings. The Red Raiders have been a better team with Behren Morton at QB. They are 4-2 in the games he has played, and 0-3 in the rest. The total here should probably be a bit higher. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-11-23 | Temple v. South Florida OVER 67 | 23-27 | Loss | -125 | 71 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Over. These teams are among the fastest (pace of play) in the country. South Florida lay a half a hundred on Memphis last week, and still lost by a score of 59-50. It was the third time in their last four games that they scored 50+. They have scored 40 or more in six of their last seven. They host Temple in a revenge game after losing 54-28 at Temple last season. Temple QB EJ Warner has thrown for 400+ yards in back to back games, and has nine TDs in those contests. This game has shootout written all over it. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-10-23 | Wyoming v. UNLV -4 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 58 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UNLV. The Rebels are 4-1 in the Mountain West, and they are 4-0 at home. They rank among the best rushing offenses in the country, averaging almost 200 yards per game on the ground. They host Wyoming, and the Cowboys coming off a big home win over Colorado State. Wyoming is undefeated at home this season, and winless on the road. They lost 32-7 at Boise State in their last road game, and a similar result seems likely here in Vegas. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-05-23 | Bills v. Bengals -150 | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 128 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CIN. The Bengals and Joe Burrow struggled early in the season, but they appeared to find their stride last week. Burrow threw for 238 yards and 3 TDs on 28-of-32 passing. The Bills on the other hand are trending in the opposite direction. Josh Allen missed practice with a shoulder injury mid week. Allen has appeared to miss former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, and his home away splits are quite revealing. Allen has 13 TDs and 3 INTs on 75% passing at home, and 4 TDs and 5 INTs on 66% passing on the road. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-05-23 | Cardinals v. Browns -7.5 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 121 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CLE. The Arizona Cardinals are tanking, and they couldn't make it anymore obvious. They traded their QB to Minnesota, leaving them with an inexperienced rookie (Clayton Tune) as #1 on the depth chart. Tune was a long shot to make an NFL roster, and he didn't exactly light it up during the pre-season. Now he faces the NFL's top ranked defense on the road at Cleveland. The return of Deshaun Watson may or may not help, but I think the Browns defense will do enough to get the win and cover here. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-05-23 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -140 | 14-21 | Win | 100 | 117 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on KC. Are the Dolphins overrated? You bet your ass they are! Miami hasn't beaten a team with a winning record since they defeated the Buffalo Bills at home last September. They have padded their stats against inferior opponents. Now they face a Kansas City defense that is lights out against the pass. Only the Cleveland Browns have allowed fewer passing yards per game than the Chiefs. The Dolphins have five offensive starters listed as questionable. The Chiefs defense should dominate this game. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-04-23 | Houston v. Baylor -145 | 25-24 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Baylor. Throw out the season stats for Baylor, as Blake Shapen missed a handful of games. They have definitely been a better team with him at QB. The Bears have home field, a better defense and I think Aranda is a better coach than Dana Holgerson. Donovan Smith has been very inconsistent for Houston, and this looks like a tough spot. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-04-23 | Virginia Tech +10 v. Louisville | 3-34 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on VT. The Hokies looked like they turned back the clock last week, demolishing the Syracuse Orange in Blacksburg. They are a 10 point favorite here at Louisville and I am banking on this to be a close game. The Cardinals are coming off a 23-0 win over Duke, but they will likely have their hands full with a VT defense that leads the ACC in sacks. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-04-23 | Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State OVER 61.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Over. The Sooners are banged up, and star linebacker Danny Strutsman is questionable for the last edition of Bedlam. The Cowboys offense has been firing on all cylinders, but during their winning streak they continue to give up a ton of yards and a ton of points. The long term forecast was calling for high winds and nasty weather, and that may have kept this total a little lower than expected. The latest news out of Stillwater is that weather will not be a concern. They don't call it Bedlam for nothing, we expect a shootout in Oklahoma. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-04-23 | Nebraska -150 v. Michigan State | 17-20 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Nebraska. A change at QB has paid dividends for Nebrasksa. It's not like Heinrich Haarberg has been lighting it up, but he's been effective as a duel threat and limited the mistakes that were costing the Huskers earlier this season with Jeff Sims as the starter. Nebraska has won three in a row and I like them to keep it rolling in East Lansing against a Spartans team that has lost six straight. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-04-23 | Arkansas v. Florida -160 | 39-36 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on FLA. The Gators looked bad against Georgia, but who doesn't look bad against the defending champs. A return home to face a struggling Arkansas team should be just what the doctor ordered. The Razorbacks have been on the wrong side of plenty of close games, but it's asking a lot to expect them to be on the right side here in a tough environment. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-02-23 | Titans v. Steelers -145 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 41 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on PIT. In his NFL debut at home against the Falcons, Will Levis threw for 238 yards and four TDs on 19-of-29 passing. He makes his second NFL start on the road at Pittsburgh, and now the Steelers defense has tape on him. I think it would be awful naive to expect the rookie to be as good as he was last week. The Titans are 0-3 on the road, and they should be 0-4 after tonight. More bad news for Titans fans ...Cam Heyward is back for the Steelers. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
11-02-23 | TCU v. Texas Tech -145 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 40 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TTU. The Red Raiders should have a significant edge at QB here at home tonight with Baron Morton returning from injury. They are 3-2 in the games he has played, and he's thrown for almost 700 yards, 8 TDs and just two INTs. The TCU Horned Frogs won't have their starter, and freshman Josh Hoover has looked really bad on the road. Kansas State ran for 343 yards against the Horned Frogs in their last game, and this defense hasn't been stopping anyone. I'll take the Red Raiders as a slight home favorite. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
10-29-23 | Bengals +5.5 v. 49ers | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on CIN. So the Bengals came into this season expecting to be a contender, but Joe Burrow was clearly not healthy and they have been one of the biggest disappointments. Coming off a bye week, and Burrow proclaiming he is now at 100 percent, this looks like a good spot to back the Bengals s a dog. The 49ERS are coming off back to back losses, ravaged by injuries, and with the news that Brock Purdy has cleared concussion protocol the line has ticked up to +5.5. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
10-29-23 | Jets -153 v. Giants | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on NYJ. The Jets come in off back to back wins, and this team appears to be trending in the right direction. The Giants are coming off an upset win over Washington, with Tyrod Taylor balling out. Taylor threw for 279 yards and two TDs on 18-of-29 passing. I expect the Jets defense to make life difficult for the veteran backup here this Sunday. This looks like a let down spot for the Giants, and they might be a bit overvalued after covering in back to back games. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
10-29-23 | Vikings v. Packers +110 | 24-10 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on GB. The Vikings look good on paper, but "The Game Isn't Played on Paper!". The come into Lambeau Field in a cold weather game, and this appears to be a huge let down spot after they upset the 49ERS. The Vikings have lost by 20+ points in each of their last two games at Lambeau, Green Bay leads the all-time series 64-56-3 and the home team has won each of the past four games in the series. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
10-28-23 | East Carolina v. UTSA -18 | 27-41 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on UTSA. I have been riding this Roadrunners team since Frank Harris returned, and they haven't let me down. They have won three straight, covering in all three games. At first glance 18 might look like a big number, but UTSA has won back to back games by 20+, and those games were against better teams that ECU. Harris has thrown for 770 yards, 7 TDs and 2 INTs on over 70 percent passing since coming back from the injury. I see no season why the Roadrunners don't win by 20+ here. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
10-22-23 | Chargers +6 v. Chiefs | 17-31 | Loss | -112 | 131 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LAC. The Chargers have lost six of the last eight meetings versus KC, but they have covered the spread in seven of those games. Last year they lost by a field goal in both meetings, at home and at Kansas City. They are 2-3 this season and all three of their losses have come by a field goal. The Chiefs offense has not been quite as prolific this season, averaging just 24 points per game. I'll take the points as I am expecting another close game. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
10-22-23 | Falcons v. Bucs -135 | 16-13 | Loss | -135 | 151 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on TB. The Bucs are still sitting in first place in the NFC South with a record of 3-2, but the public is down on them after they looked pretty bad in a home loss to the Lions. Their losses came against the Eagles and the Lions, who boast a combined record of 10-2. Now they have a home game against an Atlanta team with a rookie QB who has thrown as many picks (6) as TDs. This is just the Falcons second road game, and they scored six points in a loss at Detroit earlier this year. Five of Ridder's six TD passes have come at home. This looks like a tough spot against a Bucs defense than ranks 7th in the NFL in scoring allowing 17.6 points per game. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
10-22-23 | Raiders -115 v. Bears | 12-30 | Loss | -115 | 151 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on LV. The Bears won't have Justin Fields this week, and it probably doesn't matter as they are suspected to begin tanking for the first overall pick in the draft. The Raiders are also turning to a backup QB, but Brian Hoyer has plenty of experience. This looks like a good spot for Josh Jacobs to get going against the Bears 29th ranked defense. This might not be pretty, but we expect the Raiders to emerge with a "W" here. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
10-21-23 | UTSA -3 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 36-10 | Win | 100 | 147 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UTSA. I don't think the markets have accurately accounted for the return of Frank Harris, who has thrown for over 500 yards and five TDs in back to back double digit wins since coming back from injury. The Roadrunners had a disappointing start to the season, but that can be partially explained by the injury to their starting QB. The Owls lost their starter for the season, and backup Daniel Richardson has thrown for 902 yards, 5 TDs and 4 INTs in four starts. I don't think the Owls offense has enough weapons to keep up to UTSA. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
10-21-23 | Tennessee v. Alabama UNDER 48 | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 38 m | Show | |
This is a 4* play on Under. I bet the under in the Vols home game against Texas A&M. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Vols ran for 238 yards and three TDs in a win over South Carolina two weeks ago, but they face a much tougher Aggies defense this week. Texas A&M held Alabama to just 23 rushing yards last week, but Jalen Milroe and Jermaine Burton lit them up. Joe Milton hasn't been lighting anybody up this season, and he won't have his top WR Bru McCoy for the rest of the season. This game should be a defensive battle, and we should expect a low score. Both these teams have held opponents to fewer than 20 points per game." Alabama should be able to dominate this game on the ground, and the Vols are going to struggle to score. GL, Jesse Schule |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Jimmy Boyd | $1,235 |
John Martin | $1,013 |
Chip Chirimbes | $692 |
Scott Rickenbach | $677 |
Jack Jones | $635 |
Big Al McMordie | $631 |
Alex Smart | $548 |
Matt Fargo | $400 |
Tom Macrina | $375 |
Kyle Hunter | $370 |