Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs OVER 54 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on PIT@TB to go Over the total. Until the NFL does something about the roughing the passer penalties on traditionally textbook quarterback sacks, it's going to be hard to bet on too many unders. Big Ben is going to be tough to stop if you aren't even allowed to hit him when he's scrambling. He might be on the wrong side of 30, and a little overweight, but he's proven to be one of the more elusive quarterbacks in the NFL. The Bucs defense has allowed over 400 yards of total offense in each of their first two games, and I expect the Steelers to pile on the points here in Tampa. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-23-18 | Patriots -6.5 v. Lions | 10-26 | Loss | -103 | 103 h 8 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots. New England is coming off an ugly 31-20 loss at Jacksonville, but they are in a good spot to bounce back with a convincing win here in Detroit on Sunday night. The Lions are coming off a 30-27 loss at San Francisco, but it would be a mistake to assume that was a close game. It was 30-17 halfway through the fourth quarter, and Detroit scored twice in garbage time. Former New England assistant Matt Patricia may have bitten off more than he can chew, leaving the Patriots to become the head coach in Detroit. Lions fans are already calling for heads to roll after a dismal start. The Pats have won their last four versus the Lions, all four of those games decided by at least seven points. My money is on a big bounce back for Belichick and Brady. Take NE. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons -163 | 43-37 | Loss | -163 | 123 h 49 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons. Matt Ryan and the Falcons exercised some demons in last week's home win over Carolina, and I like their chances of rolling to another home win this week versus the Saints. New Orleans has been lit up by Ryan Fitzpatrick (nothing magic about a 35 year old backup quarterback) and Tyrod Taylor. The Browns outgained the Saints 327-275 in Week 2, and Tyrod Taylor had more passing yards than Drew Brees. If the Saints thought that Alvin Kamara would be able to make up the loss of Mark Ingram, they were wrong. Kamara has run for just 75 yards on 21 carries in two weeks. The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, and the home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Take ATL. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens OVER 43 | 14-27 | Loss | -109 | 96 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on DEN@BAL to go Over the total. Both the Broncos and the Ravens are known for their defense, and because of that we see an extremely low total for this Sunday's game in Baltimore. The thing about this game that catches my eye, is how both these teams have leaned on their passing game. The Ravens ran 55 passing plays and just 22 running plays last week. In Week 1 they ran 38 passing plays and 34 running plays in a blowout win over Buffalo. Case Keenum has put up solid numbers in his firs two games in Denver, throwing for 551 yards and three TDs. History tells us we could see plenty of points here. The Ravens have gone over in 10 of their last 14 overall, and the over is 4-1 in the last five head to head meetings. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3.5 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Redskins. The Packers looked pretty bad in a Week 1 win over the Bears, needing to rally from a 17-0 halftime deficit. Then they opened up a 20-7 lead on the Vikings at home in Week 2, only to blow it and ended up settling for a tie 29-29. Aaron Rodgers has been playing hurt with a sprained knee, and he will not be 100 percent here in Washington. Rodgers has always been better at home, and Green Bay is just 7-9 straight up in their last 16 road games. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five head to head meetings, and I like the Skins plus the points at home. Washington actually out-gained Indy 334-281 last week, but they were hurt by costly penalties. Alex Smith could have a big day against a questionable Packers defense. Take WAS. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-23-18 | Duquesne v. Hawaii -29.5 | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Hawaii. The Duquesne Dukes aren't coming to Hawaii to compete in a football game, they are on what is more like a paid vacation. This is like a sparring partner for a prize fighter, who is meant to be no more than a punching bag. Duquesne played UMASS in Week 1, and got blown out by a score of 63-15. The Minutemen aren't even a competitive FBS team, and they have since lost three straight games by 20 or more to Florida International, Georgia State and Boston College. Hawaii leads the nation in passing offense, and their quarterback Cole McDonald is the nation's leading passer. This is an opportunity for the Warriors to pad their stats, and I expect them to pile on the points. This should be a win by 50+. Take HAW. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-22-18 | Florida v. Tennessee +4.5 | 47-21 | Loss | -109 | 72 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the Tennessee Vols. The Vols aren't a great team, but they always seem to manage to muster a solid effort against rivals Florida. The Gators have won three of the last four meetings, but the average margin of victory in those games is less than three points. Two of the last four meetings have been decided by a single point, and the Vols have outscored Florida 47-38 in the last two meetings in Knoxville. The Gators have failed to cover in four straight road games, and five straight versus teams from the SEC. I don't think Florida should be a favorite, never mind asking them to cover 4-5 points. I'll take the home dog in this epic rivalry. Take VOLS. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-22-18 | TCU -135 v. Texas | 16-31 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the TCU Horned Frogs. Texas is coming off an emotional high after beating up on USC, and I think that sets them up for a let down against a far more disciplined TCU team. USC is sloppy, and their young quarterback is prone to making mistakes. TCU is a solid team with a solid coach, coming off a home loss to Ohio State. Since 2014 TCU is 4-0 straight up against Texas, and they won all those games outright. Texas still has a long way to go before they can be expected to compete with the top teams in the Country. I'll take the visitors here. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-22-18 | Texas A&M +27.5 v. Alabama | 23-45 | Win | 100 | 101 h 18 m | Show | |
8* | |||||||
09-22-18 | Georgia v. Missouri OVER 64.5 | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on UGA@MIZZ to go Over the total. Georgia has picked up right where it left off last year, coming into today's game at Missouri ranked 2nd nationally and averaging 45 points per game. They beat the Tigers by a score of 53-28 at home last season, and I expect another shootout here in Missouri. The Tigers have won nine consecutive regular season games, scoring at least 40 points in all of those contests. They scored 28 points in Athens last year, and they should be able to at least match that number here at home. The defense is still a concern though, coming off a 40-37 win at Purdue. If they gave up 37 points to the Boilermakers, it wouldn't be any surprise to see Georgia hang 50 on them. Take Over, GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC OVER 50 | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on WAZZU@USC to go Over. The Trojans offense hasn't been able to score points in road losses at Stanford and Texas, but they return home for a pivotal PAC12 clash versus Washington State. This is a revenge game after Sam Darnold's Trojans lost at Pullman last year by a score of 30-27. Another close game should be expected here tonight, and I expect both teams to score their fair share of points. The total looks a little low, in fact it is significantly lower than it was in any of the last seven head to head meetings between these teams. Six of the last seven meetings have seen a total of 55 or higher, and the total for last year's game closed at 59. Washington State has been impressive on both sides of the ball, and they come in to tonight's game ranked second in the country in passing yards. That being said, they have yet to face a Power Five team. JT Daniels has made his fair share of mistakes, but the freshman has been able to move the ball. He's thrown for over 800 yards in three starts, threw for 322 yards on 30-of-48 passing in last week's loss to Texas. Take Over, GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-21-18 | Penn State v. Illinois +28 | 63-24 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Illinois. The question is not whether Penn State beats Illinois on Friday night, but rather will they beat them by more than four TDs. I don't see the Nittany Lions putting all their time and energy into a game on the road on a short week with Ohio State looming next Saturday. This is a classic "look ahead" game and the line looks grossly inflated. History certainly favors the home underdog, in a series where the favorite hasn't been asked to cover more than 14 points in any of the previous 10 meetings. The Fighting Illini have covered the spread in seven of the last 10 meetings, and the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take ILL. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-21-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Central Florida -13.5 | 36-56 | Win | 100 | 48 h 36 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Central Florida Knights. The Knights have won 15 straight games, and 11 of those were decided by a double digit margin. They are a complete team with a solid defense to go along with their potent offense. They host the FAU Owls Friday, and Lane Kiffin has this team firing on all cylinders offensively. I am skeptical about this Owls defense though, as they come in giving up roughly 40 points per game. Sure you can't fault them too much for losing by 50 at Oklahoma, but giving up 27 to Air Force and 28 to Bethune-Cookman doesn't inspire much confidence. The Owls are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games, and I think they are biting off a little more than they can chew here versus UCF. Take UCF. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -155 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 81 h 5 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Browns. The New York Jets looked like world beaters in Week 1, crushing the Lions by a score of 48-17. Sam Darnold threw for 198 yards and two TDs on 16-of-21 passing, and fans were ready to call him a first ballot Hall of Famer. Then reality set in when they lost to the Dolphins at home in Week 2. Darnold was picked off twice, and the Jets couldn't get anything going on the ground. Now they head out on the road on a short week to play the Browns, who have looked great despite not winning a game in years. Realistically though, the Browns defense has looked All World against Ben Rothlisberger and Drew Brees (two guys with Super Bowl rings). I don't think the Jets will be able to do anything on offense here in this game, and the Browns should finally win a game. Tale CLE. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns UNDER 41 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Over 4.5 sacks. So far this season, the Browns have been getting after the quarterback. They sacked Big Ben four times in Week 1, and they sacked Drew Brees three times last week. We aren't going to compare Sam Darnold to a couple of savvy veterans who both have Super Bowl rings. This is a rookie starting on the road on a short week, and I think he's going to make mistakes, including holding on to the ball too long. The Browns are fortunate that they have Baker Mayfield as their backup quarterback, because Tyrod Taylor has taken a pounding so far. Taylor was sacked seven times against the Steelers and three times last week in New Orleans. Take Over 4.5. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 55 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on TULSA@TEMPLE to go UNDER. The Temple Owls made some changes last week, focusing on stopping the run ahead of their game at Maryland. They executed the game plan perfectly, winning outright as a double digit dog by a score of 35-14. The Terrapins only gained a total of 195 yards, and turned the ball over twice. Temple will look to ride that momentum here at home against a Tulsa team that likes to run the ball. Golden Hurricanes quarterback Luke Skipper hasn't thrown for 200 yards in any of his three starts this season, and he's thrown 3 INTs to go along with his 4 TD passes. Tulsa has trended under at a rate of 7-2 in their last nine overall, and Temple has failed to reach the total in seven of their last 10 home games. The under is 6-1 in the Owls last seven games in the month of September, and that's a trend that I expect to hold true tonight. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -200 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Bears. The Bears appear to have improved a lot since last year. They gave the Packers a scare at Lambeau in Week 1, and the addition of Khalil Mack is bad news for opposing quarterbacks. Mack made an impact right away, returning an INT for a TD against the Packers. The new look Seattle defense was lit up in a Week 1 loss at Denver, allowing Case Keenum to throw for 339 yards and three TDs. Russel Wilson did all he could to keep the game close, but the running game was non existant. Seattle only carried the ball 16 times for 64 yards. The Bears are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games, and they should be able to grind out a win against this Seattle team that is clearly on the decline. Take Chi. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears UNDER 43.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on SEA@CHI to go Under. The Bears appear to have improved a lot since last year. They gave the Packers a scare at Lambeau in Week 1, and the addition of Khalil Mack is bad news for opposing quarterbacks. Mack made an impact right away, returning an INT for a TD against the Packers. The new look Seattle defense was lit up in a Week 1 loss at Denver, allowing Case Keenum to throw for 339 yards and three TDs. Russel Wilson did all he could to keep the game close, but the running game was non existant. Seattle only carried the ball 16 times for 64 yards. The Bears are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games, and they have also seen the under trend at 6-1 in their last seven overall. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-16-18 | Giants +3.5 v. Cowboys | 13-20 | Loss | -112 | 158 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Giants. Neither of these two NFC East teams looked like playoff contenders in Week 1, but the Giants defense did look pretty solid. Saquon Barkley also showed signs of living up to all the hype, and in a division game between two teams that have a history of playing close games, I'll take the dog. Six of the last 10 meetings between these teams have been decided by five points or less, including two games decided by just one point. The Giants have covered the spread in five of the last seven meetings, and the Cowboys have failed to cover in five of their last seven home games. I expect this game to be close, but the Giants look closer to being a contender in my opinion, so I'll take the points. Take NYG. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-16-18 | Raiders v. Broncos -5.5 | 19-20 | Loss | -100 | 101 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos. The Broncos led 17-10 at halftime in their Week 1 win over the Seahawks, and they look good in Week 2 against Oakland. Case Keenum had a huge game, throwing for 339 yards and three TDs on 25-of-39 passing. The Raiders looked pretty bad in their Week 1 home loss to the Rams, and Derek Carr really struggled. He threw for 303 yards on 29-of-40 passing with no TDs and three INTs. The Raiders have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six road games, and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six trips to Mile High Stadium. The home team has won four straight in this series. Take DEN. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-16-18 | Browns v. Saints -8.5 | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Saints. My biggest bet in Week 1 was on the Browns +7 at home versus Cleveland, and I had that bet circled since the beginning of the summer. The Browns are no doubt going to be better this year than they were in 2017, but I wasn't impressed with their Week 1 tie versus the Steelers. When you really look at the stats, the Steelers turned the ball over six times, and they still had 472 total yards of offense. Without the turnover advantage the Browns would have been blown out. The Saints were unimpressive in their Week 1 home loss to Tampa, but I think they will be far better here in Week 2. Take SAINTS. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-16-18 | Vikings +2 v. Packers | Top | 29-29 | Win | 100 | 150 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings were one win away from going to the Super Bowl last year, and that was after losing their starting quarterback and leading rusher Dalvin Cook. Their success was a testament to just how good they are on defense, ranking 1st overall in total yards, 2nd against the pass and 2nd in quarterback sacks. With an upgrade at quarterback and a healthy Cook in the backfield, Minnesota is my pick to win the Super Bowl this season. They face the Packers in Green Bay in Week 2, and Aaron Rodgers is expected to be playing with a sprained knee. Rodgers was knocked out of last year's 23-10 loss at Minnesota, and ended up missing the Packers final nine games of the season. He engineered a miraculous comeback against the Bears last week, but the Packers defense wasn't very impressive. The Bears averaged over 5 yards per carry, and led 17-0 at halftime. Erasing a 20 point deficit against the Bears is one thing, but if they fall behind the Vikings I don't like their chances of pulling off another comeback. Take MIN. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-15-18 | USC v. Texas UNDER 48 | 14-37 | Loss | -105 | 81 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on USC@TEX to go Under the total. The Trojans scored just three points on the road at Stanford last week, but their defense looked solid holding the Cardinal under 20 points. Freshman quarterback JT Daniels threw for 215 yards and two INTs on 16-of-34 passing in the loss. It won't get any easier this week, playing on the road at Texas. These two teams have quite the history, and the last head to head meeting was an epic double OT win for USC. Sam Ehlinger threw for 298 yards with two TDs and two INTs. Ehlinger was picked off twice in a loss to Maryland in Week 1, completing just 53 percent of his passes. Texas has long trended toward the under, failing to reach the total in 42 of their last 60 overall, and 38 of their last 56 home games. The last meeting was tied 17-17 at the end of regulation, and I expect a similar pace to this game. Barring overtime, the under looks like the best bet. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-15-18 | Missouri -6 v. Purdue | Top | 40-37 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Missouri Tigers. The Tigers have won eight straight regular season games, averaging over 50 points per game during that span. Three of those wins came on the road, and two of those three wins came by a double digit margin. They lost 35-3 at home to Purdue last year, but this isn't the same team that lost five of it's first six last season. Drew Lock has thrown for 687 yards and eight TDs on 74.3 percent passing so far in 2018, and he led the nation in TD passes last season. Purdue is still trying to figure out who is their starting quarterback, and Elijah Sindelar hasn't inspired a lot of confidence, throwing for just 283 yards with 2 TDs and 3 INTs the first two weeks. Missouri appears to have improved defensively, ranking 20th in total defense after two weeks. I like the revenge angle here, and the Tigers are catching Purdue coming off an ugly home loss to Eastern Michigan. I expect the Tigers to run away with this game. Take MIZZ. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-15-18 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +21.5 | 62-7 | Loss | -105 | 80 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Mississippi. Alabama has lost just five regular season games over the last six seasons, and two of those losses came against Ole Miss. The Crimson Tide also won a 48-43 thriller at Ole Miss in 2016. The Rebels success against Alabama has mostly been a product of stellar quarterback play. Chad Kelly threw for 421 yards and three TDs in the last meeting, and he was brilliant in the two wins. The Rebels have themselves a new gunslinger in Jordan Ta'amu. The Senior has thrown for 784 yards and 7 TDs with no INTs so far this season. Of course most people are predicting a one-sided win for the visitors, but given such a big number I am taking the dog with history on it's side. The Tide are just 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings, and 2-6 ATS in their last eight at Mississippi. Take MISS. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-15-18 | Hawaii +7 v. Army | 21-28 | Push | 0 | 125 h 15 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors are 3-0, and quarterback Cole MacDonald leads the nation in passing with 1,165 yards, 13 TDs and not a single interception. They were up 14-0 after the first quarter in their win over Navy, and they led 38-14 at halftime in that game. They have gotten off to big starts in all three of their wins, but they have allowed opponents to come back and make it interesting in the second half. They are getting points here on the road at Army this week, and while the travel is a concern, I still think they find enough offense to keep this game close. Take HAW. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-15-18 | Florida State v. Syracuse OVER 68 | 7-30 | Loss | -107 | 73 h 53 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on FSU@SYR to go Over the total. The Willie Taggart era is off to a brutal start, as Florida State narrowly avoided falling to 0-2 on the season by losing to Samford at home last week. The Seminoles had trailed the whole game, and rallied to score twice in the final four minutes to come from behind and win 36-26. Deandre Francois threw for 320 yards and three TDs on 31-of-46 passing last week. He should be primed to have a big game against a Syracuse defense that allowed 42 points in their Week 1 win over Western Michigan. Both these coaches want to play fast, and that should result in a shootout here on Saturday. The total looks quite high, and trends show a lean toward the under. Keep in mind that those trends aren't reflecting a coaching matchup of Dino Babers vs Willie Taggart. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals +1.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 86 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals offense was firing on all cylinders in a Week 1 win at Indianapolis, and I like Cinci as a home dog on Thursday night versus Baltimore. Andy Dalton threw for 243 yards and two TDs on 21-of-28 passing. AJ Green had six receptions for 92 yards and a TD and Joe Mixon had 149 total yards with a TD. With everyone healthy and playing at the top of their game, this Cincinnati offense is one of the best in the league. I am not sure we learned much about Baltimore in their 47-3 home win over Buffalo in Week 1. The Ravens haven't had a lot of success at Cincinnati in recent seasons, losing four of their last five visits. They are 3-7 straight up in the last 10 meetings between the two teams, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 at Cincinnati. The Bengals won 31-27 at Baltimore last year, and AJ Green didn't play in that game. I am not sold on Baltimore as a road favorite here. Take CIN. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders OVER 49 | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 705 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on LAR@OAK to go Over the total. The Rams were the highest scoring team in the league last year, but they ranked in the bottom half of the league defensively. They play on the road in Oakland in Week 1, and I think this game has shootout written all over it. The Raiders are looking to bounce back from a brutal 2017 season, and Derek Carr should be better this year. He threw for almost 4,000 yards with 28 TDs and just six INTs in 2016. The last time these teams met, the Rams opened up a can of whupass, winning 52-0. That sets up a nice revenge spot here for the Raiders. The Rams have gone over in seven of their last eight road games, and the over is 5-1 in their last six overall. Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-09-18 | Bears +9 v. Packers | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 106 h 30 m | Show | |
8* | |||||||
09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -6 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 38 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings were one win away from going to the Super Bowl last year, and that was after losing their starting quarterback and leading rusher Dalvin Cook. Their success was a testament to just how good they are on defense, ranking 1st overall in total yards, 2nd against the pass and 2nd in quarterback sacks. With an upgrade at quarterback and a healthy Cook in the backfield, Minnesota is my pick to win the Super Bowl this season. They play their home opener against San Francisco, and the 49ers are optimistic about the future since bringing in Jimmy G. I don't think San Francisco has anything to be optimistic about here in Week 1, and I expect it to be a long day for Garoppolo. Vikings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September, and the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these teams. Take MIN. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-09-18 | Bengals +3 v. Colts | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 124 h 37 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Bengals. While the Colts are hoping to be better with Andrew Luck back at quarterback, I am not sure they have surrounded him with enough talent. This team was 4-12 last year, and they lost leading rusher Frank Gore, and three of their top receivers. The Colts ranked 30th in total defense last season, and losing their best defensive player, nose tackle Johnathan Hankins isn't going to help. They were 31st in sacks last year, and if they can't pressure the quarterback they will leave their inexperienced secondary exposed. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green could have a field day here at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games, and 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 games in September. Take CINCI. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +7 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 2782 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Cleveland Browns. I had this game circled back in the beginning of the summer, and since then the money has really come in on the Browns. While it's been a long time since the Browns have actually won a game, they are expected to be a lot better here in 2018. Tyrod Taylor might not be your favorite quarterback, but he's a pretty solid bet as an underdog when you are looking to cover the points as a home dog. Taylor's biggest asset is his dependability, protecting the football and not making many costly mistakes. In a rivalry that has seen three straight games decided by four points or less, an improved Browns team at home getting points is quite attractive. The Le'Veon Bell situation has gone from bad to worse, with members of the offensive line publicly blasting Bell for putting himself above the team. The Steelers have failed to cover in five of their last seven season openers, and I think they'll have their hands full here in Cleveland. Take CLE. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-08-18 | Michigan State v. Arizona State +6.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 45 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona State Sun Devils. Michigan State was ranked 11th overall in the AP Poll in Week 1, and they only dropped four spots after a disappointing start to the season. They got the win over Utah State, but needed to rally from behind in the fourth quarter to avoid an upset at the hands of a minnow from the Mountain West. The Spartans played five true road games last season, and only one of those was a win by more than four points. They lost in overtime at Northwestern, and beat Minnesota by just three points. Their trip to Sun Devil Stadium isn't likely going to be a picnic. The Sun Devils were 5-2 at home last year, and two of those wins came against ranked teams. They upset #5 ranked Washington in October, beating the Huskies 13-7. They also beat #24 Oregon in a shootout, 37-35. Senior quarterback Manny Wilkins delivered a flawless performance in a blowout win over UTSA in Week 1, and Herm Edwards might have something cooking here in the desert. The Spartans have covered just twice in their last eight versus the PAC12, and they are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games. I'll take the points with the home dog. Take ARZST. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-08-18 | California v. BYU -155 | 21-18 | Loss | -155 | 108 h 6 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the BYU Cougars. The Cougars came into the season with pretty low expectations, and they were a double digit underdog at Arizona in Week 1. Not only did they beat Arizona outright, the final score doesn't accurately reflect what a one-sided game it actually was. The Wildcats trailed by 18 points heading into the fourth quarter, and they closed the gap with two TDs in the fourth quarter before eventually losing 28-23. Kahlil Tate was a popular pick to win the Heisman, but Tanner Mangum was the better quarterback, throwing for 209 yards and a TD on 18-of-28 passing. BYU will be at home in Week 2, hosting the Cal Bears. I had Cal last week, and I got a good line (-6.5). It turned out to be pretty significant, as they just barely held on to beat an undermanned North Carolina team 24-17. What looks like a rather unimpressive win on the surface, looks even uglier when you dig a bit deeper. The Bears were the beneficiary of four Tar Heels turnovers. Both teams were 4-of-17 on third down, and North Carolina held a 301-279 edge in total yards. The Bears used three quarterbacks who combined to complete just 50 percent of their passes for a total of just 119 yards. Without a +4 turnover ratio the Bears could have easily lost to a UNC team that was 3-9 last year, and had 13 players serving suspensions. It doesn't bode well as they head out on the road for a game at Provo. Take BYU. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-08-18 | USC v. Stanford -169 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 107 h 33 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Stanford Cardinal. The USC Trojans gave up 21 points and 405 total yards in a home win over UNLV in Week 1, and that's not going to cut it on the road at Stanford. The Cardinal were far more impressive in a 31-10 win over San Diego State in their season opener. Quarterback K.J. Costello threw for 332 yards and four TDs on 21-of-31 passing against the Aztecs. David Shaw was careful not to overwork Bryce Love in Week 1, the Heisman hopeful had just 18 carries for 29 yards. Love should see the ball early and often against a USC team that has struggled to defend the run. The Trojans have failed to cover in four of the last five meetings, and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take STAN. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-08-18 | Wyoming v. Missouri -17 | 13-40 | Win | 100 | 87 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Missouri Tigers. I was pretty high on this Wyoming defense before the season started, and they still might prove to be one of the top teams in the Mountain West. Their home loss to Washington State last week doesn't give me any reason to think that they can compete with one of the most explosive offensive teams in the SEC, on the road at Missouri this week. The Tigers scored 51 points in a blowout win over UT Martin in Week 1, and they averaged over 50 points per game during a six game winning streak at the end of last season. Drew Lock threw for 289 yards and four TDs on 19-of-25 passing before the Tigers pulled their starters. Lock led the country with 44 TD passes last season, and he's likely to cause all sorts of problems for Wyoming. The Cowboys biggest problem appears to be their offense, with quarterback Tyler Vander Waal throwing for a measly 67 yards and an INT on 8-of-20 passing. If they can't move the ball, their defense won't stand a chance. Take MIZZ. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-07-18 | TCU -22 v. SMU | 42-12 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on TCU. The SMU Mustangs might consider this a rivalry game, but they have lost their last five games versus TCU by an average margin of more than 31 points. This year's game looks as lopsided as ever, and another blowout seems inevitable. The Mustangs fell behind 36-0 after three quarters in their season opener versus North Texas, before scoring three meaningless TDs in garbage time. It wasn't the fact that they lost by 23 points as a 3.5 point underdog that was the biggest point of concern, it's the fact that their offensive line got just run over by a freight train. Their quarterback was sacked nine times in the season opener. It won't get any easier against one of the top defenses in the BIG12. TCU should terrorize the Mustangs early, and this game should be over by halftime. Take TCU. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-06-18 | Falcons +3 v. Eagles | 12-18 | Loss | -125 | 59 h 59 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons. The Eagles begin their Super Bowl defense at home on Thursday night, against a Falcons team that they beat in the Divisional round of last year's playoffs. The Falcons were just two yards away from a last minute go ahead TD in that game, losing 15-10. Nick Foles was solid, throwing for 246 yards on 23-of-30 passing. Foles was outstanding in last year's playoffs, but I think it might be a little naive to think that the Eagles won't miss Carson Wentz. We've seen six years of data that suggests Nick Foles is nothing more than a backup quarterback. His last season as a starter was rather unimpressive, completing just 56 percent of his passes with 7 TDs an 10 INTs in 11 starts for the Rams in 2015. Prior to that he started eight games for Philly, completing 59 percent of his passes with 13 TDs and 10 INTs. He looked a lot more like that guy during the pre-season. Matt Ryan followed up his 2016 MVP campaign with a disappointing 2017 season. That came as no surprise, as the Super Bowl Hangover is well documented. It's Philly's turn to suffer the dreaded post Super Bowl slump. Take ATL. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-03-18 | Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Virginia Tech. The Willie Taggart era begins in Tallahassee tonight when the Seminoles host Virginia Tech. The Hokies are a significant underdog in this spot, and I like their chances of hanging with this new look Florida State team. While DeAndre Francios returns at quarterback, it will be his first game running the Gulf Coast Offense. There could be a few hiccups along the way. Justin Fuente has the advantage of bringing back Josh Jackson at quarterback, and he was outstanding in his freshman year throwing for 2,991 yards, 20 TDs and nine INTs, completing roughly 60 percent of his passes. The Seminoles have failed to cover in eight consecutive non-conference games, and I think it's asking a lot for them to beat the Hokies by more than a TD. FSU has won three of the last five meetings straight up, but the Hokies have covered the spread in three of the last four head to head meetings. Take VT. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-02-18 | Miami-FL -153 v. LSU | 17-33 | Loss | -153 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Hurricanes. The Hurricanes started last season 10-0 before losing their final three games. Two of those losses came against #1 ranked Clemson and #6 ranked Wisconsin. The Canes figure to be a playoff contender again this season, with 5th year Senior Malik Rosier back at quarterback, and an offense loaded with talented athletes. Miami's most impressive win last season came at home against Notre Dame by a score of 41-8. The Turnover Chain came out four times that day, and I would be surprised if we don't see it in action here in tonight's game versus LSU. The Tigers offense is going to look a lot different without Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice. They are going with graduate transfer Joe Burrow at quarterback, and tonight will be his first collegiate start. I am banking on Mark Richt to have his team better prepared for this matchup than Ed Orgeron. Take MIA. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-01-18 | Navy -10 v. Hawaii | 41-59 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Navy Midshipmen. The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors were originally a 17-point home underdog in this matchup versus Navy, but after a big upset over Colorado State in their season opener, the line was bet down by a TD. I think this knee jerk reaction is an over-correction, and that has since been further evidenced by Colorado State suffering another blowout loss at the hands of Colorado. Navy ran for 452 yards and seven TDs in a 49-7 win over Virginia in the Military Bowl last season, and their offense is expected to be even more dynamic with Malcom Perry taking over at quarterback this season. While the "run and shoot" was effective for Hawaii against a brutal CSU defense, I expect Hawaii's offense to be on the sidelines for the majority of this game, watching the Midshipmen run up and down, burning up the clock. Take NAVY. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-01-18 | Michigan -125 v. Notre Dame | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -125 | 1478 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOY play on the Michigan Wolverines. The Irish won 10 games last year, including three wins against ranked teams (USC, NC State and LSU). Most of their success came because of their power running game, with Josh Adams running behind a stacked offensive line. Adams is gone, as are Quenton Nelson and Mike McGlinchey. They will need Brandon Wimbush to step up this season, and he draws a tough assignment in Week 1. Michigan's defense ranked #1 in the nation against the pass last season, and #3 overall in total defense. They bring back almost everybody, and this should be the most talented squad that Harbaugh has had in Ann Arbor. An upgrade at quarterback might make Michigan a true playoff contender. Shea Patterson threw for 2,259 yards and 17 TDs in just seven starts for Ole Miss last season. He's easily the most talented quarterback that Harbaugh has had to work with since returning to the college game. I think this is a case of Michigan being the better team, with a better defense, a better quarterback, a better coach and superior talent. Needless to say, I am expecting it to be a blowout. Something similar to when the Irish lost 41-8 at Miami last year. Take MICH. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-01-18 | North Carolina v. California -7 | 17-24 | Push | 0 | 100 h 39 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on California. The Tar Heels have just a dozen starters returning from last season's 3-9 squad, and 13 players will be serving suspensions early in the season for NCAA rules violations. That will leave North Carolina undermanned here on the road against a Golden Bears team that beat them on their home field in 2017. California is in good shape at quarterback with Ross Bowers returning. He had one of his best games last season against the Tar Heels, throwing for 363 yards and four TDs on 24-of-38 passing in a 25-20 win at Chapel Hill. North Carolina was brutal defending the run last year, and it's doubtful that they can completely turn things around here in Week 1. This has all the markings of a double digit win for the home team. Take CAL. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-01-18 | Washington v. Auburn UNDER 48.5 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on WAS@AUB to go Under the total. If you happened to catch my longshot pick for the Heisman Trophy, you probably already know I am big on the Huskies. Here are some of the things I said about Washington: "Two years ago Jake Browning led all Power 5 quarterbacks with 43 TD passes. He’s coming into his senior year surrounded by the most talented group in the Chris Peterson era. The Huskies are ranked 6th overall, the favorites to win the PAC12." Auburn is ranked 9th overall, and yet the Tigers will be a favorite at a neutral site game in Atlanta in Week 1. The knee jerk reaction is to think that because Auburn beat Alabama last season, and went on to play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, that they are the better team here. Once you get past the SEC bias, you see that Washington actually ranked first nationally against the run in 2017, allowing just 2.6 yards per attempt. These teams match up pretty close in every category, except for the quarterback position. Jarrett Stidham struggled against top defenses last season. He threw for just 79 yards in a loss to Clemson, 145 yards in a loss to Georgia, and 165 yards in a loss to LSU. The Tigers have gone under in 14 of their last 17 non-conference games, and I expect another defensive battle here in Week 1 versus Washington. Take Under. GL,Jesse Schule | |||||||
09-01-18 | Northern Illinois v. Iowa UNDER 48 | 7-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NIU@IOWA to go Under the total. The Hawkeyes won three straight non-conference games at the beginning of last season, and both games at home fell well short of the total. In five home games versus unranked opponents last season they failed to reach the total in four of those contests. They allowed an average of just 13 points in those games. Iowa has 24 players returning on a defense that allowed fewer than 20 points per game in 2017. These teams have failed to combine for 40 points in four of the last five head to head meetings, and Northern Illinois is going to struggle offensively here at Kinnick Stadium. The under is 5-2 in Hawkeyes last 7 non-conference games. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
08-31-18 | Colorado State v. Colorado -7 | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the Colorado Buffaloes. The Rams looked awful in a home loss to Hawaii last week, and I think they will struggle here against Rivals Colorado. The Buffaloes dropped off significantly last season after winning the PAC12 South in 2016, but they bring back Stephen Montez at quarterback for the 2018 season, and he threw for 2,975 yards with 18 TDs and nine INTs last season. Two of those nine picks came in a Week 1 win over Colorado State, but the Buffaloes still managed to win by a score of 17-3. Colorado won all three of it's non-conference games by double-digits last season, and overall they beat the teams they were supposed to beat. Losses to UCLA and Arizona each came by less than five points. They shouldn't have much trouble mopping the floor with this Rams team that is still trying to sort out new personnel. Take COL. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
08-30-18 | New Mexico State v. Minnesota UNDER 47 | 10-48 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on NMST@MINN to go Under. It was no surprise to see the Aggies struggle on offense against Wyoming in their home opener. They lost their starting quarterback, leading rusher and leading receiver from last season. They were literally going backwards in the 1st half, and finished the game with just 135 total yards. When you consider their failures on offense, their defense held it's own conceding just 29 points to a Wyoming offense that held the ball for the majority of the game. They forced the Cowboys to punt seven times, and limited them to 137 yards on 13-of-22 passing. We should see a similar story here in Minnesota, with the Gophers pounding away with their running game. Minnesota ranked 122nd in the country in passing last season, averaging just 126 yards per game. They will have an inexperienced starter here in 2018, and I think it's likely they don't ask him to do too much here in a game that they should have little trouble winning. Minnesota ranked 11th nationally against the pass last season, and they should make life very difficult for this struggling Aggies offense. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
08-25-18 | Wyoming -170 v. New Mexico State | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 68 h 49 m | Show | |
This is a 5* play on Wyoming. The Cowboys lost Josh Allen to the NFL draft, but they bring back eight starters on a defense that led the nation in takeaways last year. They have experience on the offensive line and at wide receiver, and this should be one of the best teams in the Mountain West. The Aggies are coming off a miraculous season finishing with six wins and then defeating Utah State in the Arizona Bowl by a score of 26-20 in overtime. They may be hard pressed to maintain that success this season, having lost their starting quarterback, leading rusher and top wide receiver. A New look offense is likely to struggle in Week 1 against the best defense in the Group of Five. The Aggies first win of last season came by a score of 30-28 versus New Mexico, a team that lost 42-3 to Wyoming. Take the Cowboys. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots OVER 48 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 302 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Super Bowl to go OVER the total. | |||||||
01-21-18 | Vikings -170 v. Eagles | 7-38 | Loss | -170 | 149 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. I had the Vikings over the Saints last week, and here is what I said prior to kickoff: "Things have changed since the Vikings beat the Saints by a score of 29-19 in Week 1, but the Vikings defense hasn't slipped up at all. Minnesota has held four of it's last five opponents to 10 points or less, and the Vikes rank first overall in total defense. A lot of people will talk about the quarterback matchup between Case Keenum and Drew Brees, and the knee jerk reaction is to say that the Saints have a huge advantage. Keenum hasn't played like a backup quarterback stepping in to be a game manager, he has a higher QBR than Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson. The Vikings are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and I think their defense will make enough plays to get past the Saints here at home" While I might have got lucky at the end, it was another stellar performance from Case Keenum. He threw for 318 yards and a TD on 25-of-40 passing, including the walkoff TD to Stephon Diggs. The Eagles won a close game against the Atlanta Falcons last week, and Nick Foles played well enough to win. He will have to be a lot better here this week to beat the Vikings. I think this is Minnesota's game to lose. A home game in the Super Bow appears to be destiny for the Vikes. Take MINNY. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -9 | 20-24 | Loss | -105 | 146 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the New England Patriots. There has been a lot of rumors flying around regarding the health of Tom Brady, who reportedly suffered a hand injury in practice mid week. I'll take a banged up Brady over Blake Bortles any day. Last week the Jaguars were helped by a handful of poor coaching decisions by the Steelers, but they can't rely on superior strategy here at Foxboro. I expect Bill Belichick to have more than a few tricks up his sleeve. The fact that the Jags have won back to back playoff games has masked just how poorly Blake Bortles has actually played. He's only thrown for 301 yards and two TDs on just over 50 percent passing in those games. He's missed a ton of short passes to wide open receivers all season long, and that has continued to haunt him in these playoffs. Leonard Fournette comes in after suffering an ankle injury last week, and he's likely not quite 100 percent. The Patriots defense stuffed the run last week, holding Derrick Henry to 28 yards on 12 carries. New England has covered the spread in five straight home playoff games, and I expect another double digit win for the defending champs here on Sunday. Take NE. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -190 | Top | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 135 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. | |||||||
01-08-18 | Alabama -170 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 105 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama's loss to Auburn was in a way the best thing that could have happened to Nick Saban's squad. At the time they were banged up, and they weren't playing well. If they had to play Georgia back in December, they might not have survived. Instead, they were given more time to rest and prepare than all the other teams that played conference championship games. Fair? Not at all! The Alabama team that beat Clemson last week isn't the same team that lost to Auburn in December. That's bad news for the Bulldogs, who's defense was shredded by the Sooners in the Rose Bowl. Oklahoma ran for 242 yards on 45 attempts, and the Bulldogs gave up a total of 531 yards. Georgia was extremely lucky to come back and win in overtime, but I don't think the Bulldogs will be so fortunate against Bama. Alabama has won the last three meetings between the two schools dating back to 2008, and two of those wins came by a double digit margin. If Alabama plays the way they played in the Sugar Bowl, this game isn't going to be close. Take BAMA. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -5.5 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -115 | 150 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. The Saints gave up 11 points in the final five minuted to blow a 24-20 lead in Tampa last week. The result didn't matter, because Carolina lost to Atlanta, and New Orleans clinched the NFC South. The Panthers did not look great in their 22-10 loss to the Falcons, and Cam Newton threw three interceptions while throwing for just 180 yards and a TD on 14-of-34 passing. As bad as those numbers are, that has been the norm for Cam Newton this year. He's failed to throw for 200 yards in five of his last six games. He's been bothered by a shoulder injury that has kept him from practicing this week. The Panthers lost to the Saints twice during the regular season, and Cam threw for just 340 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs on 34-of-53 passing. The Saints have won seven straight home games, including a double digit win over Carolina. The Panthers have failed to cover in six straight against New Orleans, and they are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 versus the NFC South. The Saints are 23-4 ATS in their last 27 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take NO. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-07-18 | Bills +7.5 v. Jaguars | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 145 h 22 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Buffalo Bills. Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -108 | 128 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LA Rams. The Atlanta Falcons are limping into the playoffs, looking nothing like the team that went all the way to the Super Bowl a year ago. Matt Ryan is struggling, throwing as many picks (4) as TDs in his last five starts. He will face a Rams defense that ranks 4th in the NFL in quarterback sacks with 48. While the Falcons played a tough, hard fought game against Carolina just to get into the playoffs, the Rams rested their starters last week against San Francisco. Todd Gurley racked up 280 yards and three TDs on 43 carries in his last two starts, and he's likely to get a heavy workload here on Wildcard Weekend. Julio Jones took a big hit in the win over Carolina, and his status for Saturday is listed as questionable with injuries to his ankle and ribs. Devonta Freeman is expected to play despite suffering a knee injury. The Rams led the NFL in scoring during the regular season, averaging over 29 points per game. LA looks a lot more like last year's Falcons than the current version of this Atlanta team. If Matt Ryan plays like he has the last several weeks, this game will be over in a hurry. Take LAR. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +2 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 658 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Clemson Tigers. The Alabama Crimson Tide were a controversial addition to the College Football Playoff, after they lost to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. They didn't even play in the SEC Championship Game, and still the public is branding them the team to beat. The fact is that the Tigers are the defending champs, beating a better version of Alabama last year. All the talk of Alabama's top ranked defense is a little bit misleading, given that their strength of schedule is questionable at best. The Tigers finished the season strong with six straight wins, five of those coming by double digits. Jalen Hurts completed just 13-of-31 passes for 131 yards and a TD in last year's Championship Game, and this year's Clemson defense looks even stronger than it did a year ago. Both teams played Auburn, and the Tigers racked up over 400 yards versus Alabama, and just 117 total yards against Clemson. Can you imagine that? One Hundred Seventeen TOTAL YARDS? I think Alabama is living off it's reputation from decades gone by, because based on the play of both these teams this season, it's Clemson that should be the favorite. Take CLEM. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma +2 | Top | 54-48 | Loss | -110 | 534 h 19 m | Show |
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01-01-18 | LSU -153 v. Notre Dame | 17-21 | Loss | -153 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LSU Tigers. | |||||||
12-31-17 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -120 | 99 h 47 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos. | |||||||
12-31-17 | Browns +12 v. Steelers | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 95 h 19 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Browns. | |||||||
12-31-17 | Redskins -145 v. Giants | 10-18 | Loss | -145 | 73 h 52 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Washington Redskins. The final week of the NFL regular season brings many interesting storylines. While most people focus on the teams battling for playoff position, there is another battle that is less talked about. That is the battle for the top draft picks. The Giants are in a position to get one of the top picks in this year's draft, and with Eli Manning struggling this year, there has been talk that they are in the market for a quarterback. The Giants are a mess, with several players trashing each other in the media. Their entire receiving corps is made up of second and third string players, and their best players in the secondary won't play against the Redskins on Sunday. Washington has won three of the last four in this series, and the Redskins are coming off back to back wins with a chance to get back to .500 with a win in their season finale. I like Kirk Cousins and the Redskins to end the season on a high note. Take WAS. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-30-17 | Washington v. Penn State -120 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Penn State Nittany Lions. Both the Huskies and the Nittany Lions lost two games this season, but you can't really fault Penn State for losing on the road by a single point to the eventual BIG10 champs, and losing by three points in bad weather at East Lansing a week later. The Huskies on the other hand were heavy favorites against Stanford and Arizona State, and those are games they you need to win if you expect to contend for the playoffs. As much as I like Washington, I can't ignore the fact that their strength of schedule simply doesn't compare to any of the top teams in the BIG10. Nine of Washington's 10 wins came against unranked teams, and only one of their seven wins in conference play came against a team that finished the regular season with a winning record. The Nittany Lions played a far tougher schedule, and they were in every single game they played. Nobody was able to stop them from scoring at least 20 points, and Saquon Barkley was in the Heisman conversation all year. Barkley scored seven TDs in his last three starts, and I think he's going to have a big game against this top ranked Washington run defense. While Washington allowed fewer rushing yards per game than any other team in the country (92.3/game), they couldn't stop Bryce Love from slashing for 166 yards and three TDs in Stanford's 30-22 win that eliminated the Huskies from the playoffs. Take PSU. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-30-17 | Iowa State v. Memphis OVER 66 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 602 h 60 m | Show |
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12-30-17 | Louisville -6.5 v. Mississippi State | 27-31 | Loss | -115 | 405 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Louisville Cardinals. | |||||||
12-29-17 | Texas A&M v. Wake Forest -149 | 52-55 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a 6* play on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. Wake Forest will face Texas A&M in the Belk Bowl, in what is close to a home game in Charlotte. The Aggies will come into this game with an interim head coach, after firing Kevin Sumlin and hiring Jimbo Fisher. The Aggies led the SEC in sacks this year, so they are hoping that their pass rush can help make up for a huge disadvantage at the quarterback position. John Wolford threw for 2,792 yards with 25 TDs and six INTs while playing in 11 games this year. He faced a tough pass rush when the Deacons beat NC State at home by a score of 30-24, and he completed 68 percent of his passes for 247 yards, three TDs and one INT in that game. Freshman Nick Starkel took over at quarterback for the Aggies late in the season, throwing for 1,294 yards with 10 TDs and five INTs while playing in six games. Wake Forest has covered the spread in four straight bowl games, while Texas A&M has failed to cover in five straight versus teams from the ACC. Take WAKE. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-28-17 | Michigan State v. Washington State -135 | 42-17 | Loss | -135 | 366 h 38 m | Show | |
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12-28-17 | Stanford v. TCU -140 | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 248 h 10 m | Show | |
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12-28-17 | Virginia Tech v. Oklahoma State -4.5 | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 362 h 54 m | Show | |
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12-27-17 | Missouri -145 v. Texas | 16-33 | Loss | -145 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the Missouri Tigers. The Tigers were perhaps the hottest team in the country during the second half of the season. They won their final seven games, and averaged an incredible 51 points per game during that span. Granted they were playing some of the weaker teams in the SEC, but their wins over Tennessee and Florida were the highest point totals conceded by those teams. They score more points on Tennessee than the Crimson Tide, and they scored more points against Florida than the Georgia Bulldogs. Junior quarterback Drew Lock has thrown for 26 TDs and five picks in his last six starts. He's looking to make a big impression on NFL scouts here in the Texas Bowl. The offensively challenged Texas Longhorns ranked 65th nationally in scoring, despite playing in a conference known for offense (BIG12). Texas is still looking for answers at the quarterback position, as fresham Sam Ehlinger and sophomore Shane Buechele combined to throw for just 16 TDs and 13 INTs. Whoever starts at quarterback for Texas is going to be missing a lot of weapons. Chris Warren had a team high six rushing TDs, but has since transferred. The Horns were already going to be missing more than a dozen key players on both sides of the ball, and then announced Friday that three more starters would be suspended for the bowl game for violating team rules. I like Missouri to win big here in Texas. Take MIZZ. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-26-17 | Northern Illinois v. Duke -5.5 | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Duke Blue Devils. | |||||||
12-26-17 | Utah v. West Virginia UNDER 56.5 | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans +10 | 34-6 | Loss | -116 | 171 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans. The Texans have lost four straight, but last week they were crushed in a 45-7 loss at Jacksonville. After the game reporters asked Jadeveon Clowney: "Are they really that much better than you?". Clowney was left speechless, and could only shake his head. I don't think the Texans want to face similar questions this week, playing at home on Christmas Day versus the Steelers. Pittsburgh is coming off a massive loss to New England, and the potential game winning score was overruled by replay officials. This looks like a classic let down spot for Pittsburgh, and they are dealing with a ton of injuries. Antonio Brown is sidelined for the rest of the year, and might be able to return for the playoffs. The Steelers have already clinched the AFC North, so they don't have a lot to gain in these final two games. Their top priority should be to keep their top players healthy, and that might mean cutting back on the workload for players like LeVeon Bell. The Steelers have won eight of their last 10 games, but they only won once by double digits during that span. They won close games to inferior teams such as Green Bay and Indianapolis. Playing on the road on Christmas Day with questionable motivation, I expect a half-hearted effort from Pittsburgh here. The Texans are 3-3 in their last six home games, and not one of those losses came by more than 10 points. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-24-17 | Seahawks v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 21-12 | Loss | -114 | 139 h 31 m | Show |
10* | |||||||
12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 144 h 51 m | Show | |
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12-24-17 | Falcons v. Saints -5.5 | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 144 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a 9* play on the New Orleans Saints. | |||||||
12-24-17 | Bills v. Patriots UNDER 47 | 16-37 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a 9* play on BUF@NE to go UNDER the total. The Patriots are coming off a massive win in Pittsburgh, but Tom Brady didn't exactly light it up in the victory. Brady threw for 298 yards with a TD and an INT on 22-of-35 passing in Pittsburgh. He's looked a little off the last few weeks, throwing just two TD passes and four INTs in his last three starts. One of those was a 23-3 win over the Bills in Buffalo, and he threw for just 258 yards and an INT on 21-30 passing in that game. The Pats ran the ball for 191 yards and a pair of TDs, and we could see Bill Belichick lean on the run here in a cold weather game at Foxboro this week. The Bills come in as winners of three of their last four, and they allowed an average of just 11 points in those three wins. The Bills beat New England by a score of 16-0 in Foxboro last year, and the under is 3-0 in Buffalo's last three visits to New England. The under is 9-2 in the Bills last 11 games on fieldtur, while New England has failed to reach the total in five straight games in the month of December. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-24-17 | Dolphins v. Chiefs UNDER 43.5 | 13-29 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
This is a 9* play on MIA@KC to go UNDER the total. | |||||||
12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida OVER 65.5 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on TTU@USF to go Over the total. | |||||||
12-22-17 | Central Michigan v. Wyoming OVER 45 | Top | 14-37 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CMU@WYO to go OVER the total. The most intriguing story for this year's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl will be the showcase of one of the country's top ranked quarterbacks. Josh Allen is expected to be a first round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft, and this game will give him a chance to improve his draft stock. Allen missed the last two games of the regular season, and Wyoming lost those two games scoring a combined 24 points. The Cowboys were a different teams when Allen was healthy, winning six of seven games against Group of Five teams. He threw for 13 TDs and four INTs in those games. Central Michigan finished the season riding a five game win streak, and starting quarterback Shane Morris lit up the scoreboard during that span. Morris threw 1,141 yards with 14 TDs and just two INTs. All five of those games saw 55 or more combined points. The Cowboys have gone over the total in five of their last six against teams from the MAC, and their last game against Central Michigan was a 32-20 loss. I expect to see both teams score 20+ points her in this bowl game, and with an extraordinarily low total, the value lies with a play on the over. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech v. SMU -180 | 51-10 | Loss | -180 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-18-17 | Falcons -6.5 v. Bucs | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs host the Falcons on Monday Night, and this game will feature a pair of struggling quarterbacks. Jameis Winston threw for 285 yards and a pair of TDs on 26-of-38 passing in a loss to Detroit last week, but he was picked off twice and lost a fumble in that game. He's 0-5 in his last five starts, and he's thrown seven TD passes and five picks during that span. He's facing an Atlanta defense that ranks 3rd in the league against the pass, in a game that the Falcons need to win. Matt Ryan is also struggling, he completed just 55% of his passes for 221 yards with one TD and three INTs against the Saints last week. The Falcons still managed to win that game, and one of the reasons for that is that they have one of the NFL's most talented running back duos. Tampa ranks 23rd in the NFL against the run, and the Falcons ran all over them a few weeks ago. I expect another strong performance from Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman here tonight. The Falcons own Monday Night Football, they are 5-0 ATS in their last five Monday night games. The Bucs have failed to cover in five straight against divisional opponents. Take ATL. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-17-17 | Patriots -155 v. Steelers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 115 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots. | |||||||
12-17-17 | Rams +1 v. Seahawks | 42-7 | Win | 100 | 158 h 18 m | Show | |
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12-17-17 | Packers v. Panthers -150 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 133 h 55 m | Show | |
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12-17-17 | Ravens v. Browns +7.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Cleveland Browns. The 0-13 Browns appeared to be well on their way to earning their first "W" of the season last week, but the Packers tied the game with 17 seconds left of the clock, and went on to win in overtime. The Baltimore Ravens suffered a similar fate in Pittsburgh, blowing a double digit lead in the fourth quarter of a 39-38 loss. The Ravens beat Cleveland by a score of 24-10 at home earlier this season, but Cleveland out-gained them 386-337 in total yards. The Ravens have won their last three games at Cleveland, but all three of those wins came in games decided by less than seven points. Josh Gordon doesn't look like a guy that hasn't played football for three years. He's caught seven passes for 154 yards and a TD in two games back. Deshone Kizer had his best game of the season last week, throwing for 214 yards and three TDs on 20-of-28 passing against the Packers, but was also picked off twice. Cleveland's defense has been surprisingly good, ranking 12th in total defense allowing 328.5 yards per game. History tells us that these two teams play close games, and I expect another hard fought battle in bad weather in Cleveland on Sunday. Take CLE. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-16-17 | Chargers +1 v. Chiefs | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Chargers. The Chargers are on a roll, coming into KC as winners of four straight, and seven of their last nine. I bet on LA last week in their 30-13 home win over the Washington Redskins. Here is what I had to say before the kickoff: "Philip Rivers and the Chargers are back in business after winning six of their last eight games. They are locked in a three way tie for first in the ACF West, with Kansas City and Oakland also at 6-6. The Chargers control their own destiny, with a game against the Chiefs at Arrowhead next week, and a home game against the Raiders in their season finale. Rivers has thrown eight TD passes and just one INT in his last four starts. He's coming off a pair of 300+ yard games against Dallas and Cleveland." Rivers threw for 319 yards and two TDsin the win over Washington. The Chiefs have lost six of their last eight overall, and two of those losses came at home. Last week's win over an Oakland team in disarray does little to convince me that they have solved all of their problems. Alex Smith threw for 268 yards and an INT on 20-of-34 passing, and was sacked four times in the win over Oakland. He faces the league's 3rd ranked pass defense on Saturday, and the Chargers rank 5th in the NFL with 37 quarterback sacks. Take LAC. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-16-17 | Oregon v. Boise State OVER 59.5 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BSU@ORE to go OVER the total. | |||||||
12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins +12 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Dolphins. The Patriots will play at Miami on Monday Night, but they could be looking ahead to next Sunday's game against the Steelers. A win would put them level with Pittsburgh at 11-2, setting up a massive game to decide who finishes with the best record in the AFC, securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The good news for New England is, Rob Gronkowski will be well rested for the game against Pittsburgh, as he serves a 1-game suspension this week. They could be thin in the backfield with both Mike Gillislee and Dion Lewis possibly out due to illness. The Dolphins are coming off an impressive 35-9 win over the Broncos. Jay Cutler threw for 235 yards and a pair of TDs, while Kenyan Drake ran for 120 yards and a TD on 23 carries. Cutler didn't play in a 35-17 loss at New England a few weeks ago, and the Dolphins last two losses in this series came with their backup quarterback under center. Prior to that they lost at New England last September by a score of 31-24, and they won outright in three straight home meetings versus the Pats. The home team has covered the spread in 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams. I'll take the points. Take MIA. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-10-17 | Ravens +5 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Baltimore Ravens. | |||||||
12-10-17 | Redskins v. Chargers -6 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 123 h 26 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the LA Chargers. | |||||||
12-10-17 | Packers -170 v. Browns | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 125 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the Green Bay Packers. | |||||||
12-09-17 | Army v. Navy OVER 45 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARMY@NAVY to go OVER the total. Last year's Army vs Navy game saw the Black Knights end a 14-game losing streak in the annual event. This season I expect another long standing trend to come to an end. These two teams have failed to reach the total in 10 straight meetings, and that has bookmakers coming with an ultra low number here this year. The total of 45 is lower than it has been in any of Navy's games this season, and only three of 11 of Navy's games saw less than 45 combined points. Army also hasn't seen a total lower than this so far in 2017, and they have seen at least 45 combined points in seven of their 11 games. Their last game was a 52-49 loss to North Texas, and they ran for a whopping 534 yards and seven TDs in that contest. The Midshipmen are coming off a pair of losses to Houston and Notre Dame. Their last win came against SMU, and they ran for 559 yards and six TDs in the victory. While Navy is the favorite once again this year, this game is expected to be closer than it has in recent years. Both these teams should put some points on the board, and a competitive game could easily lead to enough points to push this number over. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 53.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 33 h 11 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on NO@ATL to go UNDER the total. I bet on the over in New Orleans home win over Carolina on Sunday, winning that bet with the final score of 31-21. I also bet the over in the Falcons loss to Minnesota, but lost that bet as Atlanta lost 14-9. Neither of those games saw enough combined points to reach tonight's total, and I believe that both teams may come in looking to run the ball on a short week. The Saints duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have combined to run for over 1500 yards and 16 TDs. Kamara is also a serious threat in the passing game, ranking second on the team with 59 receptions for 614 yards and four TDs. The Falcons have two of the league's best backs in Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. While history tells us that these two teams have a history of playing high scoring games, both teams are far better defensively than they have been in previous seasons. Atlanta ranks 6th in the NFL in pass defense, allowing just 208 yards per game. The Saints rank 11th, allowing just 217 yards per game. That's a huge improvement for a New Orleans team that had ranked dead last in pass defense the last few years, and got off to a terrible start again this year. Last week they held Cam Newton to 183 yards and two TDs on 17-of-27 passing. The under is 6-2 in the Saints last eight at Atlanta. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
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12-03-17 | Eagles -190 v. Seahawks | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -190 | 156 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Philadelphia Eagles. The Seattle Seahawks have been one of the league's strongest home teams over the past several seasons, so it seems odd to see them as a significant underdog here at home this week. Injuries have taken their toll on this team though, with Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman both done for the season. Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner and Shaq Griffin are also banged up. They have a tough assignment against the Eagles, as Philly ranks 1st in the NFL against the run, allowing just 65 rushing yards per game. Seattle's banged up running backs have struggled. Seattle is barely averaging 100 rushing yards per game, ranking 20th. The Seahawks have lost back to back home games to Washington and Atlanta, and it doesn't get any easier this week against an Eagles team coming in riding a nine game winning streak. Philly has allowed 10 points or less in three of their last four games, and with Seattle battling so many injuries on both sides of the ball, I can see the Eagles winning big on the West Coast. Take Philly. GL, Jesse Schule | |||||||
12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints OVER 47.5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 149 h 52 m | Show | |
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12-03-17 | Vikings v. Falcons OVER 47 | 14-9 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 27 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on MIN@ATL to go OVER the total. | |||||||
12-02-17 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +7 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 58 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,060 |
Dan Kaiser | $932 |
Jesse Schule | $566 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Ray Monohan | $518 |
Mike Lundin | $493 |
Tom Macrina | $430 |
Marc Lawrence | $400 |
Joseph D'Amico | $390 |
Big Al McMordie | $340 |