12-03-16 |
Oklahoma State +11 v. Oklahoma | Top | 20-38 |
Loss | -106 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Sooners will be a double digit favorite at home against Oklahoma State, but it wouldn't be "Bedlam" unless this game was close. The Sooners have won three of the last four in this series, but the last two games in Norman were each decided by just three points. The road team covered in all four meetings, and the underdog has covered in three of the last four. Oklahoma won big last year, but Mason Rudolph was unable to start that game due to injury. Rudolph has quietly thrown for more yards than Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield, and while he has 10 fewer TD passes, he's also thrown half as many INTs. The Cowboys have been far better on defense than Oklahoma this year, and they will need to be at their best to slow down the Sooners high flying offense. They are coming off a dominant road win at TCU, limiting Kenny Hill to 166 passing yards with 1 TD and a pair of INTs. Hill lit up the Sooners for 449 yards and five TDs in a 52-46 home loss earlier in the season. I expect the Cowboys to hang in there in a thriller in Norman. Take OKST. GL, Jesse Schule
|
12-01-16 |
Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 17-15 |
Loss | -102 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DAL@MIN to go OVER the total. The Cowboys have won 10 in a row, but that streak can't last forever. Dallas will lose, it's just a matter of when. There will be plenty of situational handicappers picking Minnesota to record the upset here at home, but I just don't think the Vikes match up well versus Dallas. The Cowboys weakness is that they are vulnerable against the pass, but the Vikings rank 25th in the league in passing. Their running game is even worse, ranking dead last in the NFL rushing. They won't have any choice but to pass, and that could result short possessions, taking little time off the clock and handing the ball right back to the mighty Cowboy's offense. As good as the Vikings defense is, the Vikes have given up 20+ points in five of their last six games. During that span they've only held one team under 100 rushing yards, and that was Detroit. They'll have their hands full tonight against the best offensive line in football, and I can't see them stopping Dallas from piling up the yards and scoring plenty of points. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in seven straight games, and not even the Baltimore Ravens #1 ranked defense was able to stop them. I am expecting a shootout in Minny.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-01-16 |
Cowboys -165 v. Vikings | Top | 17-15 |
Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys have won 10 in a row, but that streak can't last forever. Dallas will lose, it's just a matter of when. There will be plenty of situational handicappers picking Minnesota to record the upset here at home, but I just don't think the Vikes match up well versus Dallas. The Cowboys weakness is that they are vulnerable against the pass, but the Vikings rank 25th in the league in passing. Their running game is even worse, ranking dead last in the NFL rushing. They won't have any choice but to pass, and that could result short possessions, taking little time off the clock and handing the ball right back to the mighty Cowboy's offense. As good as the Vikings defense is, the Vikes have given up 20+ points in five of their last six games. During that span they've only held one team under 100 rushing yards, and that was Detroit. They'll have their hands full tonight against the best offensive line in football, and I can't see them stopping Dallas from piling up the yards and scoring plenty of points. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in seven straight games, and not even the Baltimore Ravens #1 ranked defense was able to stop them. I am expecting the Cowboys to win in a shootout in Minny.
Take Dallas.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-27-16 |
Chiefs v. Broncos -170 | Top | 30-27 |
Loss | -170 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos.
I am not going to mince words, I think the Chiefs are a FRAUD! They aren't anywhere near as good as their 7-3 record would indicate. They trailed by double digits in wins over San Diego and Carolina, but rallied to win those games. Falling behind here in Denver could prove to be fatal, as this defense doesn't often blow leads. The Broncos are coming off a bye week, and that extra time to rest an prepare for the Chiefs should give them a huge advantage. Derek Wolfe and Aqib Talib are back for the Broncos, while Tamba Hali, Marcus Peters, Dee Ford and Jeremy Maclin are all banged up for Kansas City. Alex Smith has not played well at all, and playing on the road against the Super Bowl champs isn't going to be easy for the struggling quarterback. The Broncos are 6-1-1 in their last eight home games, while the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-27-16 |
Panthers v. Raiders -4 | Top | 32-35 |
Loss | -110 | 125 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oakland Raiders.
The Raiders are 8-2, and quarterback Derek Carr is making a case for NFL MVP. He threw for 295 yards, three TDs and just one INT in last week's win over the Texans in Mexico City. I expect Carr to put up big numbers here at home today against a Carolina defense that is reeling after losing Luke Keuchly. Carolina has really missed Josh Norman, and the Panthers come into this game at Oakland ranked 21st in the league versus the pass. They've lost three of four road games so far this season, and haven't covered the spread on the road in eight straight dating back to last season. The reigning MVP has really struggled all year, and last week against the Saints he completed just 42 percent of his passes for 192 yards and a TD. That's not likely going to be good enough to keep up with Carr and the Raiders high powered passing game.
Take OAK.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-27-16 |
Seahawks -5.5 v. Bucs | Top | 5-14 |
Loss | -110 | 137 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle has won three straight, and Russell Wilson has thrown for 902 yards with six TDs and no INTs during this winning streak. Wilson had been limited by a knee injury earlier this season, but since he regained his mobility, he's been a handful for opposing defenses. The Bucs have lost two of their last three home games, and they gave up at total of 73 points in those losses. Tampa's defense ranks 24th in the NFL allowing 26 points per game. I don't like the Bucs chances of stopping Seattle, and it's going to be tough for Tampa to score enough point to keep this game close. Jameis Winston hasn't seen a defense like Seattle's since he played at home versus Denver in the first week of October. He threw for 179 yards on 17-of-35 passing, with two picks and no TDs in a 27-7 loss in that game. He was even worse against Arizona, throwing four picks in a 40-7 loss in Week 2. Seattle has covered the spread in five straight games in November, and the Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five at Tampa.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-26-16 |
Michigan State v. Penn State UNDER 54.5 | Top | 12-45 |
Loss | -110 | 107 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MSU@PSU to go UNDER the total.
The Spartans are a lot better than their 3-8 record, and they proved that by nearly upsetting the Buckeyes at home last week. Four of their eight losses have come by four points or less, and they've played far better defensively in recent weeks. Running back L.J. Scott has carried the offense, running for 282 yards and two TDs on 39 carries the last two weeks. We could see both teams lean on the run this week when they play at Penn State. The weather forecast is calling for wind and freezing cold temperatures, similar to last week's game versus the Buckeyes. The Stakes couldn't be any higher for the Nittany Lions, who can clinch a spot in the BIG10 Championship game with a win, and a Michigan loss to Ohio State. Penn State's defense has surrendered just 14 points in it's last two home games, and they've held the Spartans to less than 20 points in three of the last five head to head meetings. Previous meetings have gone over the total at a rate of 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams, but the number in this game is far higher than it was in any of the last seven meetings. I expect a close, low scoring game in bad weather this weekend.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-26-16 |
Georgia Tech v. Georgia -4 | | 28-27 |
Loss | -115 | 140 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Georgia Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs have won three straight, and Nick Chubb is coming off back to back games with over 100 yards. It's been a disappointing season for Chubb and the Bulldogs, but they appear to be playing their best football ahead of this rivalry game versus Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs were dominant in a home win over Auburn a couple weeks ago, out-gaining the Tigers 343-164 total yards. This rivalry has been rather one-sided in recent seasons, with Georgia winning six of the last seven meetings, and covered the spread in four of the last five. They haven't been fooled by the triple-option, and I expect them to ready for the Yellow Jackets here on Saturday. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six versus teams from the ACC, while the Yellow Jackets are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 versus teams with a winning record.
Take UGA.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-26-16 |
Michigan v. Ohio State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-30 |
Loss | -110 | 103 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MICH@OSU to go UNDER the total.
The Buckeyes just narrowly escaped with a 17-16 win on the road at East Lansing last week, and they will face another tough test at home versus Michigan in Week 13. There's a lot on the line here, as the loser is likely going to be eliminated from the playoffs. Michigan bounced back from a 14-13 loss at Iowa to beat Indiana by a score of 20-10 last week. The Wolverines offense is still sputtering though, and backup quarterback John O'korn three for just 59 yards on 7-of-16 passing in his first start since Wilton Speight went down with a broken collar bone. J.T. Barrett didn't have a great day either, throwing for just 86 yards and a TD on 10-of-22 passing. Both coaches will say that the weather was to blame for last week's poor performance on offense, but in a high stakes game in Columbus in late November, defense should reign supreme. These two teams rank 1st and 3rd respectively in total defense, and the weather man is calling for another cold and windy day in Ohio.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-25-16 |
Washington -4.5 v. Washington State | | 45-17 |
Win | 100 | 118 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Huskies.
The rivalry between Washington and Washington State has been very one-sided in recent years. The Huskies have won six of the last seven meetings by an average margin of 19.5 points. They won twice on the road during that span, and they covered the spread in both of those victories. This year more than other, there seems to be a huge disparity in talent between the two teams. The 10-1 Huskies are ranked #5 overall, and still have a chance to qualify for the College Football Playoffs. Both teams are 7-1 in PAC12 play, but the Cougars have had a really soft schedule, with six of those seven conference wins coming against teams with a losing record. The Huskies don't get a lot of style points for strength of schedule, but they won at Utah, scored 70 points at Oregon, and crushed Stanford by a 38 point margin. The weather conditions are expected to be less than ideal, with an 80 percent chance of rain, and high winds expected in Pullman. This should favor the Huskies, who have a far better defense and a more dangerous running game. The Huskies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight at Washington State, and 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.
Take WASH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-25-16 |
TCU v. Texas -165 | Top | 31-9 |
Loss | -165 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Texas Longhorns.
With all the negativity surrounding this Texas Team, it's important to remember that only one of their six losses this season have come by more than a touchdown. In fact they've lost four games by five points or less, two of those against Top 25 ranked teams. That's still not good enough to save Charlie Strong's job, and he's expected to be fired following Friday's game against TCU. The Longhorn's players should be highly motivated to give Strong a positive sendoff, as he's well respected in the locker room. The nation's leading rusher D'Onta Foreman will likely see plenty of touches, and he should put up huge numbers against this TCU defense that was shredded for 334 rushing yards in a home loss to Oklahoma State last week. TCU quarterback Kenny Hill was brutal in that game, throwing for just 166 yards with a TD and two INTs on 18-of-27 passing. Hill isn't playing well, but his receivers haven't been doing him any favors, dropping a lot of balls that should have been caught. The Horned Frogs really miss Josh Doctson. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover in six of their last seven conference games, and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five versus teams with a losing record. Texas has covered in four of their last five home games.
Take TEX.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-24-16 |
LSU v. Texas A&M +7.5 | Top | 54-39 |
Loss | -118 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies. The Tigers are coming off an ugly 16-10 home loss to Florida, and they come into College Station asked to cover a big spread as a road favorite. That's going to be challenging without leading rusher Leonard Fournette, and I expect the Aggies to keep this game close. Texas A&M has lost two of four since Trevor Knight went down with a season ending injury, but those losses came in games decided by a combined total of eight points. Backup quarterback Jake Hunenak has thrown for 811 yards with six TDs and just two INTs on 59.8 percent passing so far, but he has his work cut out for him against this tough LSU secondary. The Tigers have won four straight in this series dating back to 2012, and all four of those games went under the total. Their two wins at College Station each came by less than seven points. LSU has played three games away from home, losing two of those three and scoring less than 20 points in each of those losses. Last week's home loss to Florida was particularly deflating, getting stuffed on the goal line twice at the end of the game.
Take AGGIES.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-24-16 |
LSU v. Texas A&M UNDER 48 | Top | 54-39 |
Loss | -115 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LSU@TAM to go UNDER the total.
The Tigers are coming off an ugly 16-10 home loss to Florida, and they come into College Station asked to cover a big spread as a road favorite. That's going to be challenging without leading rusher Leonard Fournette, and I expect the Aggies to keep this game close. Texas A&M has lost two of four since Trevor Knight went down with a season ending injury, but those losses came in games decided by a combined total of eight points. Backup quarterback Jake Hunenak has thrown for 811 yards with six TDs and just two INTs on 59.8 percent passing so far, but he has his work cut out for him against this tough LSU secondary. The Tigers have won four straight in this series dating back to 2012, and all four of those games went under the total. Their two wins at College Station each came by less than seven points. LSU has played three games away from home, losing two of those three and scoring less than 20 points in each of those losses. Last week's home loss to Florida was particularly deflating, getting stuffed on the goal line twice at the end of the game. LSU has gone under in nine of it's last 10 games in the month of November.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-24-16 |
Redskins v. Cowboys OVER 51 | Top | 26-31 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WAS@DAL to go OVER the total.
The Cowboys have now won nine straight, and they've been unstoppable on offense during that span. They rank 3rd in the league in scoring, averaging over 28 points per game. They've scored at least 27 points in six straight games, and that trend should continue here at home against the Redskins #22 ranked defense. They'll likely need to score plenty to beat the Redskins, who are one of the leagues highest scoring teams. Kirk Cousins ranks 3rd in the league in passing, and he should be primed to put up big numbers against an injury depleted Dallas secondary. Jordan Reed is a matchup nightmare, and the Washington TE caught five passes for 70 yards in a 27-23 home loss to Dallas earlier in the year. Cousins has been playing far better since that game, and he's got plenty of weapons with DeSean Jackson back and healthy, Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon. These two teams have gone over the total in three of the last four head to head meetings, and Washington has gone over in eight of it's last 10 overall.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-20-16 |
Packers v. Redskins -150 | Top | 24-42 |
Win | 100 | 154 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.
The Packers have lost three straight, allowing an average of 37 points per game during that span. Aaron Rodgers has been struggling, and he was picked off twice in an ugly loss at Tennessee last week. Without any real threat in the running game, opposing defenses have been able to put a ton of pressure on Rodgers. He was sacked five times in last week's loss to the Titans. Washington is 5-1-1 in it's last seven overall, and the Skins have won three straight at home during that span. Kirk Cousins is playing a lot like he did last year, ranking fourth in the NFL in passing, with 2,716 yards, 14 TDs and seven INTs. He's benefiting from strong play by the Skins O-Line, as well as an abundance of weapons to throw to. Last week against Minnesota, he was sacked just once while throwing for 262 yards and a pair of TDs on 22-of-33 passing. With Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis, Cousins has an embarrassment of riches. It only gets better as DeSean Jackson is expected to return to the lineup to face Green Bay. The Packers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games in November, while the Skins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall.
Take WAS.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-20-16 |
Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-27 |
Loss | -115 | 64 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Baltimore Ravens.
The Dallas Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFL, coming into this week's home game versus Baltimore as winners of eight in row. It's not easy to stay on top in the NFL, and that is especially true for a rookie quarterback like Dak Prescott. He might be feeling just a little more pressure this week, after Dallas legend Tony Romo gave an emotional speech, passing the torch to Prescott and calling him the undisputed team leader. He's facing a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense and #1 overall versus the run. The Ravens are 5-4, but their average margin of defeat in the four games they lost is less than five points. If Baltimore can slow down Ezekiel Elliot, it's going to put a ton of pressure on Prescott, which may spell trouble for the Cowboys. Dallas is just 5-11-1 ATS in it's last 17 home games, and I think it's going to be difficult for the Cowboys to run up the score here against the league's best defense.
Take BAL.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-19-16 |
Oklahoma v. West Virginia UNDER 67 | Top | 56-28 |
Loss | -115 | 83 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKLA@WVU to go UNDER the total.
The 8-1 Mountaineers aren't getting much respect from bookmakers this week, listed as a home underdog to the 8-2 Oklahoma Sooners. Everybody loves Oklahoma's offense, and we've seen quarterback Baker Mayfield put up some impressive numbers. He threw for 545 yards and seven TDs against Texas Tech, and he had big games against Texas, Iowa State, TCU and Baylor. None of those teams can play defense like West Virginia. The Mountaineers have shut down a few high powered offenses already this year, holding the likes of TCU, Texas Tech and Texas under 21 points. West Virginia might want to focus on running the ball here at home, especially after Skyler Howard was picked off three times last week against Texas. The weather forecast in Morgantown is calling for a 90% chance of rain, as well as high winds. The Sooners have failed to reach the total in five straight, while West Virginia has gone under in five of it's last six overall. This total appears to be a little inflated, especially given the bad weather.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-19-16 |
Stanford -10.5 v. California | Top | 45-31 |
Win | 100 | 76 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
Since Keller Chryst took over at quarterback for the Cardinal, Stanford has won three straight games, all by double digits. The junior threw for 258 yards and three TDs in a 52-27 win at Oregon last week. This week's game against Cal should be very similar, as the Bears are another team that really struggles on defense. In fact, Cal ranks dead last in the FBS in points allowed, giving up an average of 45.6 points per game so far. They've given up an FBS worst 28 rushing TDs, and they rank dead last in yards per carry, allowing opponents to average 6.2 yards per attempt. That should spell trouble as they get set to face the most prolific running back of all time (McCaffrey owns the single season record of all purpose yards). Last week at Oregon, McCaffrey ran for 135 yards and three TDs, and caught five passes for 52 yards. Cal has scored plenty of points this season, but for the most part against inferior opponents. I don't like the Bears chances this week, with a banged up Davis Webb facing a tough Cardinal defense. Stanford has won six straight in this series, and five of those wins came by a double digit margin. This looks like a good spot for the Cardinal to win in another blowout.
Take STAN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-19-16 |
Maryland v. Nebraska -14.5 | Top | 7-28 |
Win | 100 | 123 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Nebraska Cornhuskers.
The Maryland Terrapins are coming off consecutive blowout losses, and they were out-scored 121-6 in those games versus Ohio State and Michigan. The good news is that they need to win just one of their remaining two games to become bowl eligible, but it's unlikely that they will get that win here on the road at Nebraska. In fact, they might be better off resting their injured players for next week's game versus Rutgers. Maryland used three quarterbacks in last week's 62-3 home loss to the Buckeyes, and they combined to throw for just 133 yards and an INT on 15-of-27 passing. Their starter Perry Hills suffered a shoulder injury two weeks ago versus Michigan, and then injured the other shoulder last week against Ohio State. His status for this game is in question, and the Terps may also be without their top two running backs. Leading rusher Ty Johnson is questionable with a shoulder injury, and freshman Lorenzo Harrison is serving a suspension due to an off field incident. Harrison leads the team with five rushing TDs. The Cornhuskers also have injury concerns, but playing at home against a short-handed Maryland team should be a cake walk.
Take NEB.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
11-17-16 |
Louisville v. Houston +14.5 | | 10-36 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Cougars.
The Cougars are out of the playoff picture after suffering a pair of losses, but they will try to play spoiler here at home versus #5 ranked Louisville. Lamar Jackson is still the favorite to win the Heisman, but he struggled last week against Wake Forest. He threw for just 145 yards and a TD on 14-of-26 passing, but ran for 153 yards on 22 carries. The Cougars upset the Cardinals in Louisville last year, and they terrorized Jackson, holding him to a career worst 20.5 QBR. He was picked off twice while throwing for 168 yards and a TD on 17-of-27 passing. The Cougars own dual threat quarterback Greg Ward threw for 236 yards and three TDs on 23-of-33 passing, and ran for 98 yards on 21 carries in last year's 34-31 win. Houston has enough weapons to give Louisville all sorts of problems, and getting more than a two TD cushion at home, I'll back the underdog here.
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-13-16 |
Dolphins v. Chargers -190 | Top | 31-24 |
Loss | -190 | 138 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the San Diego Chargers.
The Miami Dolphins take a three game winning streak into this Sunday's game at San Diego, but all three wins came at home. Playing on the road on the other side of the country looks like a tough spot for the Fish, who are still looking for their first road win this season. Phillip Rivers is having another outstanding season, and he's thrown for 994 yards with nine TDs and just one INT at home this season. The Chargers are 3-1 at home, and the home team has won six straight in this series since 2008. The Dolphis have been successful in recent weeks, leaning on running back Jay Ajayi. He's facing a stout San Diego defense though, that ranks among the NFL's best run defenses, holding opponents to an average of 85 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins run defense has been one of the worst in the NFL, ranking 29th overall, allowing over 136 yards per game. That could mean another big game for Melvin Gordon, who ran for 196 yards and a TD in last week's win over Tennessee. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, while Miami has failed to cover in four of it's last five on the road.
Take SD.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-13-16 |
Chiefs v. Panthers -165 | | 20-17 |
Loss | -165 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Carolina Panthers.
The defending NFC South champs got off to an ugly start this season, but the Panthers come into this Sunday's home game against Kansas City off back to back wins. The Chiefs escaped with an ugly home win over Jacksonville last week, despite the Jags gaining over 200 more yards (449-231).
The Chiefs are hoping quarterback Alex Smith can return after missing last week's game due to a concussion. Backup quarterback Nick Foles is questionable after suffering an injury to his throwing arm. Whoever starts at quarterback will miss top target Jeremy Maclin who is sidelined by a groin injury. They are also banged up on defense, missing Justin Houston and Tama Hali.
Kansas City relies heavily on the run, and it could be tough sledding against a Carolina defense that ranked 2nd in the NFL in run defense. The Panthers weakness is in the passing game, but the Chiefs aren't in a good position to take advantage of that. The Panthers held Todd Gurley to just 48 yards on 12 carries last week, and they should make life difficult for Spencer Ware who returns from a concussion.
Take CAR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-13-16 |
Broncos v. Saints -1 | Top | 25-23 |
Loss | -110 | 157 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints are surging, coming into this week's home game versus Denver as winners of four of their last five. The Broncos on the other hand are coming off an ugly loss on the road at Oakland, and have lost three of their last five. Denver has really missed C.J. Anderson, who has been sidelined for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Backup running back Devontae Booker has been playing through a shoulder injury, and he's been limited to just 76 yards on 29 carries while starting the last two games. The Broncos are also dealing with injuries on defense, and they really struggled in the loss to Oakland, taking 12 penalties for a total of 104 yards. Drew Brees threw for 323 yards and three TDs on 28-of-39 passing in a win at San Francisco last week, and he ranks second in the NFL in passing yards. He has incredible numbers at home, completing almost 70 percent of his passes for 1,529 yards, 12 TDs and just two INTs. His last home game was a win over the Seattle Seahawks, throwing for 265 yards and a TD on 27-of-35 passing. I expect a similar result this week against another tough defense at the Super Dome.
Take N.O.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-13-16 |
Vikings v. Redskins -145 | Top | 20-26 |
Win | 100 | 146 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.
After losing their first two games of the season, the Redskins have gone 4-1-1 in their last six overall. Kirk Cousins ranks among the league leaders in passing, and he threw for a whopping 458 yards in last week's 27-27 tie versus Cincinnati. Washington's biggest problem has been a poor run defense, which isn't likely to hurt them against Minnesota, a team that ranks 31st in the league in rushing. The Vikings offense is in shambles, averaging just 12 points per game during a three game losing streak. Minnesota's defense carried the team early this season, but injuries to several key players have hurt the Vikes. It looks like they will be without starting corners Marcus Sherels and Captain Munnerlyn. Washington might be without DeSean Jackson, but Cousins still has his fair share of weapons in Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and Vernon Davis.
Take WAS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-12-16 |
USC +8 v. Washington | Top | 26-13 |
Win | 100 | 139 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the USC Trojans.
The Washington Huskies head into this Saturday's home game versus USC ranked 4th nationally, looking to move to 10-0 on the season. They've beaten some good teams already this season, but this looks like their toughest test to date. The Trojans opened the season losing three of their first four games, but have since won five straight. Sam Darnold took over at quarterback in Week 4 versus Utah, and the Trojans held a lead in that game right up until the final 16 seconds when Utah scored late for the come from behind win. The freshman has thrown for over 1,800 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs this season, and USC has scored at least 45 points in three straight games. The Huskies have won just three of their last 10 against USC, and all three of those wins came in gamed decided by five points or less. I expect Washington to be tested here, and we should see another close game. This line looks a little inflated, and I'll take the points with USC. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series.
Take USC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-12-16 |
LSU v. Arkansas +7 | Top | 38-10 |
Loss | -125 | 128 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arkansas Razorbacks.
The Razorbacks are getting a generous cushion at home this week against an LSU team that failed to score a single point in a home loss to Alabama last Saturday. Of course the Hogs defense isn't likely to be as successful stopping the run as the #1 ranked Crimson Tide, but Arkansas has one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC. The Hogs are coming off an impressive 31-10 win over Florida, holding the Gators to just 12 yards on 14 carries. These teams have played seven times since 2009, and Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in those games. The Hogs won outright at Baton Rouge last year (31-14), and won 17-0 at home in 2015. There's no secret that the key to beating the Tigers is stopping star running back Leonard Fournette. He was held to just 35 yards on 17 carries in the loss to Alabama last Saturday, and it won't get any easier here this week. Arkansas was one of just two teams to hold Fournette under 100 yards last season.
Take ARK.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-09-16 |
Toledo -6.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 39 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Toledo Rockets.
The Northern Illinois Huskies have been to six consecutive MAC Championship games, winning the conference title three times during that span. They have really dropped off here this season, coming into this week's home game versus Toledo with a 3-6 record. All three of those wins have come against bottom feeders in the conference (Ball State, Buffalo and Bowling Green). They've been crushed when they've played tougher opposition, suffering double digit losses to South Florida, San Diego State and Western Michigan). They even lost at home to an opponent from the FCS (Western Illinois). The Huskies have won six straight in this series, and I think past results have resulted in line value on the Rockets, who should be a much bigger favorite here. NIU was getting 17.5 points versus Western Michigan, 13 points versus San Diego State and 14 points versus South Florida. Facing a Rockets team that ranks 14th nationally in points scored should prove to be too much at a neutral site at US Cellular Field.
Take TOL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-06-16 |
Broncos v. Raiders OVER 43.5 | Top | 20-30 |
Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DEN@OAK to go OVER the total.
The defending Super Bowl champs are tied with Oakland in the AFC West with both teams at 6-2 after eight games. The Raiders host Denver on Sunday night, and the total looks a little low considering how potent Oakland's offense has been. Derek Carr is having an MVP caliber season, throwing for 2,321 yards with 17 TDs and just three INTs so far. He threw for a whopping 513 yards and four TDs on 40-of-59 passing in a win over Tampa last week. Surely he will have a tougher time against Denver's defense, but I like his chances of putting enough points on the board to push this total over. While Oakland is a team that has a pass happy offense, the Broncos normally try to establish the run. They were a little more pass happy last week, with Trevor Siemian attempting 38 passes in comparison to just 25 running plays. Injuries in the secondary, and a depleted backfield for Denver should also contribute to a potential higher scoring game. The Raiders have been trending over at home, reaching the total in nine of their last 12 in Oakland.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-06-16 |
Saints -165 v. 49ers | Top | 41-23 |
Win | 100 | 149 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
Both the Saints and the 49ers have losing records, but these two teams have very different goals ahead of this Week 9 matchup. San Francisco needs to start looking ahead, with this season already a write off. The Saints are 3-4, but are still in second place in the NFC South. They've won three of their last four games, and their defense has tightened up in recent weeks. Drew Brees is having another MVP caliber season, completing almost 70 percent of his passes for a total of 2,366 yards, 18 TDs and five INTs. He'll face a San Francisco defense that ranks dead last in points allowed, giving up over 31 points per game. The Niners were lit up last week at home by Jameis Winston, who threw for 269 yards and three TDs in a 34-17 blowout win. Colin Kaepernick is completing less than 50% of his passes, throwing for just 330 yards the last two weeks. He's also been sacked seven times in those games. This game appears to have blowout written all over it.
Take N.O.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-05-16 |
Nebraska +14 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-62 |
Loss | -110 | 133 h 47 m | Show |
|
11-05-16 |
Alabama -7 v. LSU | Top | 10-0 |
Win | 100 | 128 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Alabama Crimson Tide.
After losing two of their first four games, the Tigers fired head coach Les Miles. They have won three straight since, but I am still skeptical that this team can truly contend with elite teams. Last week's 38-21 win over Ole Miss wasn't quite as impressive as the score would indicate. The game was tied 21-21 at halftime, and the Rebels suffered yet another second half collapse. Leonard Fournette ran all over Mississippi's defense, with a whopping 284 yards and three TDs on just 16 carries. Don't expect those big plays to come against Alabama, and LSU's one dimensional offense is going to be hard pressed to put points on the board. Last year Fournette ran for a season low 31 yards, averaging just 1.6 yards per carry in a 30-16 loss to Alabama. He ran for 79 yards on 21 carries in a 20-13 home loss to Alabama the previous season. The Crimson Tide have won all but one of their games by at least two TDs, with the exception being a 48-43 win at Ole Miss. Alabama ranks 1st nationally in rushing defense, allowing opponents to average just 2.2 yards per carry. That doesn't bode well for an LSU team that needs to run the ball to score points.
Take BAMA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-05-16 |
Maryland +31 v. Michigan | | 3-59 |
Loss | -110 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Maryland Terrapins.
The Wolverines are #3 in the College Football Playoff rankings, while the Buckeyes are #6. The two teams play in Columbus at the end of the month, making this week's home game against Maryland pretty meaningless. Michigan is a huge favorite, but I really don't see any incentive for Harbaugh to run up the score here. Maryland has been pretty competitive, coming in with a 5-3 record. They beat the Spartans at home just two weeks ago, and they won outright by a score of 23-16 in their last game at Michigan. While the Wolverines have won four of the last five in this series, the margin of victory in those games never came close to the enormous number here in this contest. Maryland RB Ty Johnson is coming off back to back 100 yard games, and he's averaging over 10 yard per carry this season. Michigan gave up over 200 rushing yards in last week's win over the Spartans, and Johnson might find room to run here in this game. I'll take the underdog as this looks like an epic "look ahead" spot for the Wolverines.
Take MD.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-03-16 |
Falcons -189 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 |
Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
The Bucs upset the Falcons in Atlanta in Week 1, but Atlanta has since won five of seven to take a two game lead in the NFC South. The Falcons have won three of four on the road, while the Bucs are 0-3 at home. Matt Ryan is having an MVP caliber season, leading the NFL with 2,636 yards, 19 TDs and just four INTs. He should be able to pick apart a Bucs defense that surrendered a whopping 626 yards in a home loss to Oakland last week. That game was decided in overtime, despite the fact that Oakland had a 626-270 edge in total yards. Tampa is banged up in the backfield, with starting RB Doug Martin and backup Jaquizz Rodgers both inactive for tonight's game. That puts even more pressure on Jameis Winston, who has been wildly inconsistent. He threw for just 180 yards, completing 50 percent of his passes in the loss to Oakland Sunday. That likely won't be good enough here against the Falcons.
Take ATL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-30-16 |
Patriots -5.5 v. Bills | Top | 41-25 |
Win | 100 | 146 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots.
The Bills didn't just beat the Patriots this season, they shut them out, winning 16-0 at Foxboro. Bill Belichick will look to avenge that loss here in the rematch in Buffalo this week. Things should be different this time around, with Tom Brady back from suspension, and Rob Gronkowski coming in with 16 catches for 364 yards and a pair of TDs in his last three games. LeGarrette Blount ran for 127 yards and a pair of TDs in last week's win over Pittsburgh. He could have a big day here in Buffalo, facing a Bills defense that was run over in a loss to Miami last week. The Bills have allowed opponents to average over 125 rushing yards per game so far, ranking 27th in the NFL against the run. The Buffalo backfield is in rough shape heading into this Sunday's game, with LeSean McCoy and Mike Gillislee both battling injuries. McCoy left last week's game at Miami after just eight carries for 11 yards, and he did not practice during the week. The last time the Pats played at Buffalo they won 40-32, and they are 10-2 in their last 12 at Buffalo. I'll take Brady and Belichick here in this revenge spot.
Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-30-16 |
Cardinals v. Panthers UNDER 47 | Top | 20-30 |
Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARI@CAR to go UNDER the total.
The Cardinals offense led the league in total yards last season, but Arizona has struggled to score in 2016. Carson Palmer threw for 342 yards on 29-of-49 passing in a 6-6 tie versus Seattle last week. He's been picked off five times, and has thrown just two TD passes in his last four starts. He's facing a Panthers secondary that has really struggled since Josh Norman left for Washington. Carolina couldn't stop Drew Brees in a 41-38 loss at New Orleans two weeks ago. Brees lit them up for 465 yards and four TDs. I would expect this defense to be better here at home coming off a bye week, and they did hold the Bucs to just 17 points in their last home game. Arizona has played very well defensively this season, ranking 5th in the NFL allowing just over 15 points per game. These two teams have gone over the total in three of four meetings since 2011, but the total for this Sunday's game is higher than it was in any of those previous contests. The Cardinals have gone under in 11 of their last 15 overall, and four straight on the road.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-29-16 |
Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 50.5 | Top | 34-10 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on STAN@ARI to go UNDER the total.
Stanford has lost three of it's last four games, and has scored an average of just 11 points per game during that span. Ryan Burns is really struggling at quarterback for the Cardinal, and he's thrown five INTs and just one TD pass in his last three starts. Christian McCaffrey has been banged up, failing to run for 100 yards in each of his last three starts. He wasn't able to play in Stanford's 17-10 win at Notre Dame. The good news for the Cardinal is their defense has played well, holding Colorado to 10 points last week, and Notre Dame to 10 point the week earlier. Arizona has lost four straight, and it's offense only managed 14 points in a home loss to USC last week. Stanford's defense should make life difficult for the Wildcats, and I think we'll see another low scoring game here in Arizona. The Cardinal have failed to reach the total in five of their last seven overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-29-16 |
Washington v. Utah +10.5 | Top | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 129 h 0 m | Show |
10* analysis before game time |
10-29-16 |
Georgia v. Florida -6 | Top | 10-24 |
Win | 100 | 129 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Florida Gators.
The Gators and the Bulldogs are two teams trending in different directions. Georgia is coming off an ugly loss at home to Vanderbilt, while Florida crushed Missouri 40-14 at home two weeks ago. The Bulldogs have lost three of their last four games, including a 45-14 loss at Ole Miss in September. Freshman quarterback Jacob Eason completed 16-of-36 passes for 137 yards and an INT in that game. The Bulldogs one dimensional offense is likely to struggle against a Gators defense that ranks 2nd overall in points allowed (12 per game). Georgia's running game couldn't get off the ground in the loss to Vanderbilt, gaining just 75 yards on 35 carries. The Gators have beaten the Bulldogs by double digits in each of the last two seasons, and they are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. I expect another blowout here in Jacksonville Saturday.
Take FLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-27-16 |
Jaguars v. Titans OVER 43 | | 22-36 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on JAX@TEN to go OVER the total.
The Jags will visit the Titans Thursday night, and neither of these two teams have been able to stop anybody in recent weeks. The Titans have given up 60 points in their last two games (a home win over Cleveland and a loss at home last week versus the Colts). Quarterback Marcus Mariota has been putting up decent numbers after a slow start, he's thrown eight TD passes and just one pick in his last three starts. He's going up a Jacksonville defense that ranks 26th in the league allowing over 26 points per game. Last week the Jags limited Derek Carr to 200 yards and a TD on 23-of-37 passing, but they still gave up 33 points at home losing to the Raiders. When these two teams met in Tennessee last season, Blake Bortles threw for 322 yards and five TDs in a losing effort. The Titans have reached the total in six of their last seven home games, while the Jags have gone over in nine of their last 12 when coming off a loss.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-23-16 |
Seahawks v. Cardinals -120 | Top | 6-6 |
Push | 0 | 133 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Seahawks are coming into Arizona off three straight wins, and they really have their swagger back. I bet against them last week, and here is what I said prior to the game: "Seattle is coming off a couple of double digit wins against inferior opponents. In fact, when you look at the Seahawks schedule, you can see that they've faced possibly the four worst quarterbacks in the NFL." "Seattle's offense has plenty of question marks, with injuries in the backfield, and a running game that has underachieved. Russell Wilson was injured in the win over San Francisco, limiting his ability to run the ball. He's run for -2 yards on six attempts in his last two starts. Christine Michael has a rather pedestrian 290 yards and two TDs as the feature running back" While they got the win at home versus Atlanta, they failed to cover as a seven points favorite. In fact the Falcons appeared to be engineering a potential game winning driver, which ended with a controversial non-call that most felt should have been pass interference. The running game was lackluster once again, with a total of just 72 yards on 27 carries. Arizona's run defense looked pretty damn good in the win over the Jets, giving up just 33 yards on 14 attempts. David Johnson ran for 111 yards and three TDs, and Carson Palmer was accurate completing 23-of-34 passes for 213 yards and a TD. Seattle's defense could be a little shorthanded this week with both Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett nursing injuries.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-23-16 |
Vikings -138 v. Eagles | Top | 10-21 |
Loss | -138 | 125 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.
The bubble appears to have burst for the surprising Philadelphia Eagles. After winning three straight to start the season, Philly is coming off consecutive losses to Detroit and Washington. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has struggled, throwing for just 179 yards and no TDs on 11-of-22 passing last week. He's been sacked eight times the last two weeks, and the offensive line is in rough shape since Lane Johnson started serving his suspension. The last thing you need when your offensive line is struggling to protect your rookie quarterback, is a meeting with the NFL's best defense, coming off a bye week. The Vikings have to be happy with their quarterback, as Sam Bradford has been spectacular since coming over via trade from Philly. He'll be looking forward to executing a bit of revenge on the franchise that decided to let him go. The Redskins gained 493 total yards against Philly's defense last week, and I expect a similar result here against Minny.
Take MIN. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-22-16 |
TCU v. West Virginia -195 | Top | 10-34 |
Win | 100 | 114 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the WVU Mountaineers. The TCU Horned Frogs just barely escaped with a come from behind 24-23 win over Kansas in Week 6. Quarterback Kenny Hill threw three picks, with just 206 yards and a TD on 17-of-32 passing. TCU is really missing Josh Doctson, and it's inexperienced receiving corps is making life difficult for Hill. It doesn't get any easier this week, facing the Mountaineers in Morgantown. West Virginia's defense has been impressive, and last week at Texas Tech they limited the Red Raiders to just 379 total yards. There are plenty of similarities between TCU and Texas Tech, and we should expect a similar result to what we saw last week when WVU won 48-17. TCU has failed to cover in five of it's last seven versus BIG12 teams, and five of their last six overall. The Horned Frogs are allowing over 30 points per game, ranking 85th nationally. Take WVU. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-22-16 |
Wisconsin -175 v. Iowa | Top | 17-9 |
Win | 100 | 100 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Wisconsin Badgers.
The Badgers have played a tough schedule, facing four teams ranked in the Top 10. Three of those opponents were ranked Top 5, and they lost close games at Michigan and last week blew a lead late against #2 ranked OSU. Considering the opposition, they deserve a lot of credit for going 4-2 and ranking in the Top 10 in scoring defense. Wisconsin has allowed just over 15 points per game, and I think they'll make life difficult for C.J. Beathard this week. Iowa's quarterback has failed to throw for 200 yards in five of seven games so far, and he's thrown as many picks (3) as touchdowns the last three weeks. This is a big time revenge spot for the Badgers, who lost 10-8 to Iowa at home last year. Beathard threw for just 77 yards on 9-of-21 passing, with 1 TD and an INT in that game. Wisconsin's offense did well last week, gaining 450 yards in a loss to the Buckeyes. Corey Clement ran for 164 yards on 25 carries, and he might have a big day against an Iowa defense that surrendered 198 rushing yards and two rushing TDs in a loss to Northwester a few weeks ago. Iowa already has two home losses to unranked teams, and I expect the #10 ranked badgers to be too much for them to handle.
Take WISC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-20-16 |
BYU v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | | 27-28 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 2-team (7.5 point) teaser with BYU+UNDER.
The BYU Cougars come into Boise State riding a three game winning streak, and their overall record of 4-3 is quite impressive when you look at their schedule. Losses to #12 ranked West Virginia and #18 ranked Utah came by a combined eight points, and they lost at home to UCLA by a score of 17-14. Their defense has allowed 21 points or less in five of seven games. The Broncos defense ranks 23rd nationally, allowing less than 20 points per game. Those numbers are little skewed though, considering their soft schedule.
Both teams have relied heavily on a power running game in recent weeks. Boise State running back Jeremy McNichols ran for 217 yards and a pair of TDs last week, carrying the ball a season high 40 times. Jamaal Williams ran for 286 yards and five TDs in BYU's win over Toledo a few weeks ago. I expect both teams to try to establish the run here on Thursday, and the result should be a close low scoring game. BYU has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings in this series, and Boise State has failed to reach the total in nine of it's last 10 home games.
Take BYU+UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-16-16 |
Falcons +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-26 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
There is plenty of hype surrounding both teams as the Falcons get set to face the Seahawks in Seattle this week. The question is, which of these two teams is for real? The answer might be both teams, but so far only Atlanta has really proved anything. Seattle is coming off a couple of double digit wins against inferior opponents. In fact, when you look at the Seahawks schedule, you can see that they've faced possibly the four worst quarterbacks in the NFL.
This week they face the NFL's leading passer, and MVP front runner Matt Ryan. Matty Ice has thrown for 1,740 yards with 12 TDs and just two INTs this year. Perhaps more impressive, he's done it against teams like Denver and Carolina.
This game is quite reminiscent of last year's Week 6 matchup when Seattle was a 7-point favorite at home to Carolina, and eventual MVP Cam Newton. I had the Panthers in that one, and they trailed for most of the game, but managed to keep it close. They eventually came from behind to win on a last minute touchdown drive.
Seattle's offense has plenty of question marks, with injuries in the backfield, and a running game that has underachieved. Russell Wilson was injured in the win over San Francisco, limited his ability to run the ball. He's run for -2 yards on six attempts in his last two starts. Christine Michael has a rather pedestrian 290 yards and two TDs as the feature running back.
The Falcons defense held Denver to just 84 rushing yards without a rushing TD last week. I like Atlanta to keep this one close, if not winning outright at Seattle.
Take ATL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-16-16 |
Chiefs v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 |
Loss | -110 | 149 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oakland Raiders.
The Chiefs are 0-2 on the road so far this season, and they will play at Oakland on Sunday. Quarterback Alex Smith completed just 57 percent of his passes, with 473 yards, two TDs and one pick in two road games. He's completed 73 percent of his passes for 600 yards and three TDs with one INT in two home games.
The Raiders are 4-1, and they rank 4th in the NFL in scoring, averaging over 28 points per game. Derek Carr is playing like an MVP candidate, throwing for 1,383 yards with 11 TDs and two INTs so far. Last week against the Chargers he threw for 317 yards and two TDs on 25-of-40 passing.
The skeptics will point out that Oakland's defense ranks 31st in the NFL against the pass. Perhaps we need to cut them some slack after facing the NFL's leading passer Matt Ryan, 6 x NFL passing leader Drew Brees, and Phillip Rivers who ranks 2nd in the NFL in passing yards.
Take OAK.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-16-16 |
49ers v. Bills -7.5 | Top | 16-45 |
Win | 100 | 146 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.
Rex Ryan and the Bills have turned things around, coming into Sunday's home game against San Francisco as winner of three straight. All three of those wins were blowouts, decided by more than 10 points. I expect a similar result here against a San Francisco team that is a complete mess on both sides of the ball. Blaine Gabbert has been a total bust at quarterback for the Niners, and he threw for 161 yards on 18-of-31 passing in last week's loss to Arizona. He was sacked seven times, and threw a pair of interceptions with just one TD. Fans are calling for backup Colin Kaepernick to step up to replace him, and that in itself is a testament to how desperate the situation is.
Kaepernick started eight games for San Francisco last year, and six of those were losses. He really looked awful in the pre-season, and there is concern that he's dropped a ton of weight, and may be less durable as a dual-threat quarterback. Only the Miami Dolphins have allowed more rushing yards than San Francisco this season, and that's alarming heading into a game against a Buffalo team that ranks 3rd in the league in rushing. LeSean McCoy will be looking to make a point here against former coach Chip Kelly, and McCoy ran for 150 yards against the Rams last week.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-15-16 |
Missouri v. Florida -13.5 | | 14-40 |
Win | 100 | 115 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Florida Gators.
Florida will host Missouri in Week 7, and the Gators will be well rested after last Saturday's game versus LSU was postponed. Missouri also comes off a bye week, and this will be the Tigers third road game of the season. They were out-scored 68-18 in losses at West Virginia and LSU. The Gators are hoping to welcome back quarterback Luke Del Rio, who missed the last two games with a knee injury. Del Rio threw for 762 yards with six TDs and two INTs in three appearances prior to the injury. Florida's defense ranks 3rd nationally, allowing just 11.6 points per game. Florida is 3-0 at home, and has surrendered a total of 14 points in those games. The Gators terrorized Missouri quarterback Drew Lock in a 21-3 win at Columbia last year. Lock threw for 151 yards, no TDs and two INTs on 16-of-39 passing. He's struggled on the road in 2016, completing just 45 percent of his passes with one TD and an INT. Missouri is 1-5 ATS in it's last six games versus SEC teams, and it has failed to cover in four straight road games.
Take FLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-15-16 |
West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 84 | | 48-17 |
Win | 100 | 111 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WVU@TTU to go UNDER the total.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders are an offensive juggernaut, but they could be slowed by the undefeated West Virginia Mountaineers this week. West Virginia held Kansas State to just 16 points last week, and the Mountaineers rank 15th nationally in passing defense. They've allowed just four passing TDs, while picking off opposing quarterbacks five times. That's not good news for the nation's leading passer Patrick Mahomes, who is dealing with a shoulder injury. He threw for at least 300 yards 10 times last season, but was held to a season low 196 yards with three TDs and one INT on 21-of-34 passing in a 31-26 loss to West Virginia. The total for this week's game is astronomically high, in fact it's far higher than it was in any of the previous four meetings. Only one of those four games went over the total, when Texas Tech won 37-27 at West Virginia in 2013. That still falls well short of the number these teams are being asked to reach here in this game. I expect the Mountaineers defense to make enough stops to keep this game from reaching this inflated number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-15-16 |
Kansas State +14 v. Oklahoma | Top | 17-38 |
Loss | -110 | 35 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KSU. The Oklahoma Sooners will host BIG12 rivals Kansas State this Saturday, and Oklahoma is a double-digit favorite. The Sooners spanked the Wildcats in Manhattan by a score of 55-0 last year, setting up a nice revenge angle in this rematch. Blowouts have been rare in this series, as the Wildcats had won two of three prior to last year's game, and all three of those games were decided by fewer than 10 points.
While Oklahoma has won back to back games, they were guilty of sloppy play and horrendous defense in both those victories. TCU scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to pull within three points of the Sooners two weeks ago. The Horned Frogs ended up with the ball, and a chance to win the game on their last drive, but came up short.
Last week against Texas they turned the ball over four times, and held on to win by just five points. Watching that game I noticed that several players on the Sooners defense were carted off the field, leaving them thin at several key positions. Kansas State comes into this game without any injuries to report.
The Wildcats might not have the same offensive firepower as Texas and TCU, but they have a far better defense than either of those two teams. Special teams may just be a deciding factor here, as Bill Snyder's squad ranks 6th nationally with a special teams efficiency of 72.5. The Sooners have been woeful on special teams, ranking 125th nationally with an efficiency of 22.4.
Oklahoma has allowed 40 or more points three weeks in a row, and ranks 109th nationally in scoring defense, surrendering over 36 points per game. It's hard enough to win games with a defense that bad, let alone cover. This game has upset written all over it.
Take KSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-09-16 |
Giants v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 16-23 |
Win | 100 | 162 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
The Giants are coming off a tough 24-10 loss at Minnesota on Monday night, and they head to Green Bay to face the Packers at Lambeau with just five days to rest and prepare. The Packers are coming off a bye week, and I think this sets up Aaron Rodgers and company for a big blowout home win in this spot.
Manning threw for 261 yards and an INT on 25-of-45 passing against the Vikings, and Odell Beckham Jr. caught just three passes for 33 yards. They struggled to run the ball with Shane Vereen and Rashad Jennings sidelined by injury, totaling just 78 yards on the ground. The chemistry between Manning and Beckham seems to be deteriorating, as evidenced by Manning's comments after the loss to Minnesota: "He kind of brought that on himself".
Aaron Rodgers threw for 205 yards and four TDs in a home win over the Lions two weeks ago, and he owns the NFL's highest home passer rating of all time (110.2). The Giants have failed to cover in seven straight road games against teams with a winning record, and that's a trend that I expect to continue here in Green Bay.
Take GB.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-09-16 |
Chargers v. Raiders -4.5 | Top | 31-34 |
Loss | -110 | 158 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oakland Raiders.
The Raiders are 3-1 and they've been pretty impressive offensively so far. I don't think they are getting enough respect, listed as just a small favorite at home to the Chargers. San Diego is reeling, coming into this week's game with a 3-1 record, and a long list of injury woes. Phillip Rivers continues to keep them in games, but with Woodhead, Johnson and Allen out, and Gates questionable, he's running out of targets to throw to. They are perhaps worse off on the defensive side of the ball, without Verrett, Te'o and possibly Joey Bosa as well. Derek Carr has thrown for over 1000 yards with nine TDs and just one INT so far, and he should have a field day against a struggling Chargers defense that is thin in the secondary. The Raiders won both meetings last season, by a combined margin of 11 points. I expect the Chargers to struggle here on the road with so many key players sidelined by injury.
Take OAK.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-09-16 |
Jets v. Steelers -7 | Top | 13-31 |
Win | 100 | 145 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers came out flat in a 34-3 loss at Philly two weeks ago, but they came back and throttled Kansas City 43-14 last Sunday. They host the struggling New York Jets this week, and I really see no reason why this won't be another blowout. The Jets are coming off back-to-back double digit losses, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was picked off NINE TIMES in those games. It's almost impossible to conceive that Fitzpatrick could match serves with Big Ben, but an injury to Jets top wideout Eric Decker makes that even more unlikely. There is more good news for the Steelers, as it looks like Darrelle Revis will miss the game with a hamstring injury. The Steelers have covered the spread in four of their last five home games, and the home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Take PIT. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-09-16 |
Texans v. Vikings -5.5 | Top | 13-31 |
Win | 100 | 134 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.
The Houston Texans are 3-1, and sitting in first place in the lowly AFC South. Their wins have all come at home though, and against some of the worst teams in the NFL. Chicago, Tennessee and Kansas City have just four wins between them. Houston has played just one road game, and they got their asses handed to them in a 27-0 loss to the Patriots at Foxboro. Brock Osweiler threw for 196 yards and an INT on 24-of-41 passing in that game, and he's thrown more interceptions (6) than he has touchdowns (5) overall this season.
It won't get any easier on the road at Minnesota, facing a Vikings defense that ranks 2nd overall allowing just over 12 points per game so far. Perhaps the most impressive thing about the Vikings 4-0 start, is that they've beaten 2014 MVP Aaron Rodgers, 2015 MVP Cam Newton, and two time Super Bowl winner Eli Manning. That doesn't bode well for a below average, mistake prone QB like Osweiler. Lamar Miller is unlikely to be the answer, he's averaging 3.8 yards per carry, and has yet to score a touchdown.
Take MIN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-08-16 |
Alabama v. Arkansas OVER 48.5 | Top | 49-30 |
Win | 100 | 78 h 8 m | Show |
|
10-08-16 |
Tennessee v. Texas A&M -6.5 | Top | 38-45 |
Win | 100 | 122 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* (GOM) Play on Texas A&M.
Two undefeated teams will square off when the Vols visit College Station this week, but while the Aggies appear to be the real deal, there's plenty of doubt surrounding Tennessee. The Vols have spent the majority of this season battling from behind, despite the fact that they have played five unranked teams. Last week's win came on a Hail Mary pass as the clock expired, and they are in a prime spot for a let down here this Saturday.
The Aggies defense has been lights out! Texas A&M ranks 12th nationally allowing just 15.4 points per game. Unlike the Vols, they've actually faced a pair of Top 25 teams in UCLA and Arkansas. They also won on the road at Auburn and crushed the Gamecocks last week in South Carolina.
Trevor Knight is getting it done at quarterback, throwing for 1,261 yards with seven TDs and three INTs, and running for six scores. He's got plenty of weapons, with one of the deepest receiving corps in the country.
Senior Josh Dobbs has not been spectacular for the Vols, with 1,035 passing yards, 13 TDs and six INTs. The Vols running game has also struggled, and #1 running back Jalen Hurd left with an injury in the second half of last week's game at Georgia.
The Aggies rested several star players last week (Myles Garrett, Ricky Seals-Jones, and Speedy Noil), but Kevin Sumlin said we can expect everybody to be ready for the Vols.
Take AGGIES.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-08-16 |
Auburn v. Mississippi State UNDER 54.5 | Top | 38-14 |
Win | 100 | 71 h 5 m | Show |
|
10-06-16 |
Cardinals v. 49ers +3.5 | | 33-21 |
Loss | -117 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 2-team (7.5 point) tease W/49ers+Under.
San Francisco is coming off a home loss to Dallas on Sunday, and they only managed to accumulate 295 total yards in that game. Blaine Gabbert is putting up pedestrian numbers at quarterback, with as many picks (4) as touchdowns in the first four weeks. Even in a Week 1 win over the Rams, he threw for just 170 yards and a TD. The good news is that the defense has looked pretty solid, and they should be able to hang in there against a struggling Cardinals offense with backup quarterback Drew Stanton getting the start. Stanton was picked off twice, completing just 4-of-11 attempts for 37 yards after replacing the injured Carson Palmer in last week's loss to the Rams. He started eight games for the Cardinals two seasons ago, and won five of those starts. The Cardinals failed to score 20 points in six of those eight games though, and seven of those contests failed to reach the total. Three of the last four meetings in this series have failed to reach the total, and only one of those four games was decided by a double digit margin.
Take SF+UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-06-16 |
Cardinals v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 33-21 |
Loss | -110 | 54 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 2-team (7.5 point) tease W/49ers+Under.
San Francisco is coming off a home loss to Dallas on Sunday, and they only managed to accumulate 295 total yards in that game. Blaine Gabbert is putting up pedestrian numbers at quarterback, with as many picks (4) as touchdowns in the first four weeks. Even in a Week 1 win over the Rams, he threw for just 170 yards and a TD. The good news is that the defense has looked pretty solid, and they should be able to hang in there against a struggling Cardinals offense with backup quarterback Drew Stanton getting the start. Stanton was picked off twice, completing just 4-of-11 attempts for 37 yards after replacing the injured Carson Palmer in last week's loss to the Rams. He started eight games for the Cardinals two seasons ago, and won five of those starts. The Cardinals failed to score 20 points in six of those eight games though, and seven of those contests failed to reach the total. Three of the last four meetings in this series have failed to reach the total, and only one of those four games was decided by a double digit margin.
Take SF+UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-06-16 |
Temple v. Memphis -9.5 | Top | 27-34 |
Loss | -115 | 90 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Memphis Tigers.
The Temple Owls are coming off back to back big home wins over minnows SMU and Charlotte, and I think they are going to suffer a huge setback on the road in Memphis. The Tigers rank 6th nationally averaging over 45 points per game, and they boast a Top 25 defense as well. Their last home game was a 77-3 win over Bowling Green, and junior quarterback Riley Ferguson threw for 357 yards and six TDs on 20-of-27 passing in the victory. He was pretty solid in a losing effort at Ole Miss, despite throwing three INTs. He threw for 346 yards on 30-of-46 passing, and scored a couple of rushing TDs. Memphis scored 28 points on the road against one of the nation's top teams, and halfway through the third quarter of that game they were within six points. They should be able to pile on here at home, and Temple doesn't have the firepower to keep up. Temple's last three road games came at Penn State, Houston and South Florida. They lost all three of those games, and losses to the Cougars and Bulls came by double-digits. Memphis has been a juggernaut at home, covering the spread in 16 of their last 21 home games versus teams with a winning record.
Take MEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-16 |
Giants v. Vikings -195 | Top | 10-24 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.
The Giants haven't impressed much while winning two of three games this season. One of those wins came at home versus New Orleans, and they didn't even score an offensive touchdown in that game. Eli Manning threw for 350 yards on 25-of-38 passing in a home loss to Washington last week, with just one TD an two INTs. It won't get any easier in Minnesota, facing a Vikings defense that leads the league in sacks as well as interceptions. Eli was sacked four times and threw three picks in a 49-17 loss at Minnesota last year. Without much of a threat in the running game, the Giants are going to have trouble protecting Eli from the fierce Minnesota pass rush. Sam Bradford has been quite solid for the Vikes, throwing for 457 yards and three TDs without an INT in two starts. While the offense wasn't that impressive last week, I expect Bradford to have a big game here at home against a Giants defense that was lit up by Kirk Cousins last Sunday. The Giants also took 11 penalties for 128 yards in that game. The Vikings are a more disciplined team, better coached, with a superior defense and a more dependable quarterback. I'll take the home favorite.
Take MIN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-02-16 |
Chiefs v. Steelers -5 | Top | 14-43 |
Win | 100 | 156 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers laid an egg in Philly last week, but I don't think it's any time for Pittsburgh fans to start panicking. They host the 2-1 Chiefs, who have been quite lucky so far. Last week they had the game handed to them courtesy of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who looked like he was throwing the ball to the wrong team. Fitzpatrick was picked off six times, and one of those was returned for a TD. They scored another TD on a fumble return. The Chiefs didn't look great on the road in Week 2, losing 19-12 to the Texans. Alex Smith threw for just 186 yards with no TDs on 20-of-37 passing in that game. Home field has been crucial in this series, as the home team has won each of the last three meetings, and has covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings. The Steelers offense gets Le'Veon Bell back this week, and I don't see Kansas City slowing down Big Ben and Antonio Brown in Steel Town.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-02-16 |
Cowboys v. 49ers UNDER 46 | Top | 24-17 |
Win | 100 | 146 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DAL@SF to go UNDER the total.
The 49ers defense pitched a shutout in a home win over the Rams in Week 1, but they were blown out on the road in each of their next two games. I expect a better showing from San Francisco here at home versus Dallas, and with both teams likely to lean on the run, it could be a low scoring battle. Ezekiel Elliot ran for 140 yards on 30 carries in a win over the Bears last week. Carlos Hyde had a big game for San Francisco, running for 103 yards and two TDs on 21 carries in the loss to Seattle. San Francisco's passing game has been futile, with Blaine Gabbert who threw for just 119 yards last week. The Cowboys will be without their top wide receiver as Dez Bryant is sidelined by an injury. San Francisco has gone under in seven straight home games versus teams above .500. The Cowboys have gone under in six of their last seven games played on grass.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-02-16 |
Browns v. Redskins -9 | Top | 20-31 |
Win | 100 | 148 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.
Washington has under achieved this season, losing to the Steelers and the Cowboys in their first two games. The Redskins got back on track last week with a 29-27 win in New York. They host the Browns this week, and Cleveland is reeling with a host of injuries. They are down to their third string quarterback, rookie Cody Kessler out of USC. The 23 year old threw for 244 yards with no TDs and no INTs on 21-of-33 passing in a loss to Miami last week. He could struggle against a Redskins secondary that picked off Eli Manning twice last week. Kirk Cousins ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards, and he's coming off a big game against the Giants. The former Michigan State Spartan threw for 296 yards and a pair of TDs last Sunday. He could have a huge day against a Cleveland team that ranks 24th in the NFL in total defense. The Browns kept it close in losses to Miami and Baltimore, but they were aided by turnovers. The Skins have a far better offense than either the Ravens or the Fish. Washington should win by double digits.
Take WAS.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-02-16 |
Raiders v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | Top | 28-27 |
Loss | -110 | 148 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OAK@BAL to go UNDER the total.
The Raiders defense couldn't stop anybody in the first two weeks, but they are coming off a solid 17-10 road win at Tennessee. They limited Marcus Mariota to 214 yards with no TDs and two INTs on 17-of-33 passing. They will try to do it again on the road at Baltimore, and the Ravens offense hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. Baltimore ranks 24th in the NFL, averaging just 19 points per game. Last week Joe Flacco really struggled, throwing for 214 yards on 21-of-40 passing, with no TDs and a pair of INTs.The Ravens though have won three straight to start the season, behind the league's 4th ranked defense. The Ravens have failed to reach the total in five of their last six home games, and six of their last seven on field turf. Derek Carr had a career best 351 passing yards against this Baltimore secondary last year, but I don't like his chances of a repeat performance here on the road Sunday.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-02-16 |
Lions -160 v. Bears | Top | 14-17 |
Loss | -160 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Lions.
The Lions are 1-2 heading into Sunday's game at Chicago, but they probably deserve better. They lost by a single point, blowing a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against Tennessee, and the Packers 34-27 win over the Lions last week was aided by a phantom 66 yard pass interference penalty. The Bears on the other hand have absolutely nothing to be positive about, after getting lit up by rookie quarterback in three straight losses. Both these teams are banged up in the backfield, with Chicago turning to third string running back Jordan Howard, while the Lions might still be in good shape with Theo Riddick carrying the load in the absence of Ameer Abdullah. There's no doubt that the Lions have a huge advantage at quarterback, with Matthew Stafford coming in ranked fifth in the NFL in passing yards, and his seven TD passes are just one shy of the NFL lead. The Lions have won six straight in this series dating back to 2012, and I don't see the Bears breaking that streak here this week.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-02-16 |
Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 49.5 | Top | 27-30 |
Loss | -105 | 144 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@JAX to go UNDER the total.
The Colts defense got the job done at home versus San Diego last week, holding the Chargers to just one offensive touchdown. Andrew Luck threw for 331 yards with one TD and an INT in the 26-22 victory. Indianapolis will face the winless Jaguars in London, and this looks like a tough spot for a banged up Andrew Luck. The Jags defense was great last week, limiting Joe Flacco to 214 yards on 21-of-40 passing, with no TDs and a pair of INTs. They also did a good job defending the run, holding the Ravens to 84 yards and a TD on 22 carries. Blake Bortles made a ton of mistakes though, and that cost Jacksonville in a 19-17 loss. Bortles had one of his best games last season in a win over the Colts, throwing for 250 yards and three TDs. That game went over the total, but these teams have failed to reach the total in eight of the last 10 head to head meetings. The total here looks a little high, given both team's struggles on offense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-01-16 |
Arizona v. UCLA UNDER 59 | Top | 24-45 |
Loss | -110 | 119 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARI@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The UCLA Bruins are coming off a tough home loss to Stanford, but once against their defense was extremely impressive. The Bruins made Christian McCaffrey look human, limiting him to 138 yards on 26 carries, keeping him out of the endzone. Stanford was held to just three field goals, before Ryan Burns completed a game winning drive with a TD pass to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside with 24 seconds left in the game.
Previously, the Bruins held the Aggies to just 24 points in regulation in an overtime loss at College Station, and they held the BYU Cougars to just 14 points in a win in Provo. While the defense looks great, there isn't a lot to get excited about on offense. Josh Rosen looks nothing like the Heisman candidate he was supposed to be.
Arizona's defense has also been impressive, and these two teams have a history of playing low scoring games. Four of the last five meetings in California have failed to reach 50 points. The total for this Saturday's game is closer to 60. The Bruins have failed to reach the total in 11 of their last 14 home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-01-16 |
Louisville v. Clemson -2 | Top | 36-42 |
Win | 100 | 142 h 31 m | Show |
10* analysis before game time |
10-01-16 |
Oklahoma -1.5 v. TCU | Top | 52-46 |
Win | 100 | 138 h 2 m | Show |
|
10-01-16 |
Wisconsin +10.5 v. Michigan | Top | 7-14 |
Win | 100 | 137 h 43 m | Show |
|
09-30-16 |
Stanford +3.5 v. Washington | Top | 6-44 |
Loss | -110 | 105 h 22 m | Show |
|
09-26-16 |
Falcons v. Saints -133 | Top | 45-32 |
Loss | -133 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints are still looking for their first win of the season, and they should have a good shot of getting it tonight at home versus Atlanta. They beat Atlanta twice last year, and the Falcons have failed to cover in four of their last five at the Superdome. New Orleans defense was the worst in the NFL last year, and it didn't look much better in a home loss to Oakland in Week 1. They put in an impressive showing on the road in New York last week, holding the Giants offense to just three field goals. They also had a couple of goal line stands that kept the New York out of the endzone. Drew Brees has looked sharp early in the season, and in a game that could turn into a shootout, I like his chances against the mistake prone Matt Ryan. The Saints sacked Ryan five times in last year's 31-21 home win over Atlanta. The Falcons defense hasn't impressed, and I don't like their chances of slowing down Drew Brees in the dome on Monday night.
Take Saints.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-25-16 |
Bears v. Cowboys UNDER 44.5 | Top | 17-31 |
Loss | -103 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CHI@DAL to go UNDER the total.
The Cowboys are a big favorite at home to the Bears on Sunday night, but I am still not convinced that rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot are going to live up to all the hype. The Cowboys are 1-1, and everyone is singing the praises of their new rookie quarterback. As solid as he's looked, he's yet to throw a TD pass. The good news is that he hasn't made many mistakes. If the Cowboys want to keep it that way, they will have to continue protecting him with a conservative game plan on offense. They don't need to come out passing, and settling for field goals is likely to be plenty good enough against these Bears. Chicago's offense is in rough shape, with Brian Hoyer stepping in at quarterback to replace Jay Cutler. Hoyer is a capable backup, but this is a tough situation, playing behind an offensive line that can't stop the pass rush. Chicago has not seen the total go over 45 points in seven straight games dating back to last December. The Cowboys have gone under in four of their last five versus an opponent with a losing record, and I expect to see a low scoring game here tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-25-16 |
Steelers -175 v. Eagles | | 3-34 |
Loss | -175 | 53 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Eagles are all hyped up after beating two of the worst teams in the NFL in the first two weeks. We'll find out if this team is for real this Sunday, when they host Big Ben and his Pittsburgh Steelers. Roethlisberger has thrown for 559 yards and six TDs so far, and he's done it against two teams that made the playoffs a year ago.
The Eagles are thin in the secondary, but Jay Cutler and the Bears were unable to take advantage of that last week. The Eagles sacked Cutler three times, eventually knocking him out of the game. Roethlisberger doesn't go down easy, he's only been sacked once in two games.
We've heard a lot about the poise of rookie quarterback Carson Wentz, but it's easy to look good against the Bears and Browns. It's going to be a lot tougher against a Steelers defense that has only allowed 16 points per game so far.
Philly is also coming off a short week, and they've failed to cover in five straight when playing after a Monday night game.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-25-16 |
Raiders v. Titans -116 | Top | 17-10 |
Loss | -116 | 50 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Tennessee Titans.
It's been an impressive start to the season for the Titans, who probably should be 2-0. In Week 1 they took a 10-0 lead to the locker room at halftime at home versus the Vikings, but Minnesota scored a pair of defensive touchdowns in thew second half to come back and win. Last week they held the Detroit Lions to just 15 points, and rallied for a 16-15 home win.
Tennessee will host the Raiders this Sunday, and Oakland is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta. The Oakland defense ranks dead last in the NFL versus the pass after giving up a total of 69 points in the first two weeks.
The Titans have to be pleased with the play of DeMarco Murray, who has averaged 5.2 yards per carry so far. He's also been a threat in the passing game, with a dozen receptions for 91 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
These two teams are trending in different directions, as the Titans are developing a winning culture, while the Raiders are second guessing themselves. The Titans come in full of confidence, while Oakland is desperately trying to sort out it's defense.
Take TEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-24-16 |
Arkansas v. Texas A&M -5.5 | Top | 24-45 |
Win | 100 | 84 h 24 m | Show |
|
09-24-16 |
Stanford -155 v. UCLA | Top | 22-13 |
Win | 100 | 83 h 56 m | Show |
|
09-24-16 |
Nebraska v. Northwestern UNDER 48 | Top | 24-13 |
Win | 100 | 83 h 47 m | Show |
|
09-24-16 |
BYU v. West Virginia UNDER 51.5 | Top | 32-35 |
Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
|
09-24-16 |
Syracuse v. Connecticut UNDER 57.5 | Top | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
|
09-23-16 |
USC v. Utah UNDER 47 | Top | 27-31 |
Loss | -107 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on USC@UTAH to go UNDER the total. The Utah Utes are 3-0, but when you really examine those three victories, none of them are all that impressive. Despite the fact that they've played three unranked opponents, they've scored an average of just 26 points per game, ranking 90th nationally. The Trojans haven't looked great defensively, but keep in mind that they've played two defending conference champions (Alabama and Stanford). When matched against a lesser opponent, they didn't look too bad. USC held the Utah State Aggies to just seven total points, and 253 total yards in Week 2. Sam Darnold will step in at quarterback for the Trojans, but he faces a Utes defense that ranks top 10 nationally. Darnold was 5-of-7 for 45 yards with an INT against Stanford last week. Given the history between these two conference rivals, we should expect to see a defensive battle. The last time the Trojans played here they lost 24-21, and the under in 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-22-16 |
Texans +1 v. Patriots | Top | 0-27 |
Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans. After upsetting Arizona on the road in Week 1 without several starters on both sides of the ball, the Patriots seem invincible. There seems to be a feeling that Bill Belichick can get it done no matter who starts at quarterback. History tells us that isn't the case, and I think there's a big difference between 2nd string quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, and third stringer Jacoby Brissett. We saw Miami score 21 unanswered points in the second half of last week's game, and New England just barely held on. The Texans come in with the #3 ranked scoring defense, and a quarterback that beat New England last year. This Houston defense has the potential to make life miserable for an inexperienced quarterback, and I expect Brissett to struggle here. I think Belichick's luck is about to run out. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule
|
09-22-16 |
Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 57.5 | Top | 26-7 |
Win | 100 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
|
09-19-16 |
Eagles v. Bears -153 | | 29-14 |
Loss | -153 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Chicago.
Jay Cutler had the Bears up 14-10 at halftime in Houston in Week 1, but Chicago was shutout in the second half and went on to lose 23-14 to the Texans. The offensive line couldn't keep Houston's pass rushers off of Cutler, and he was sacked five times. Chicago's offense should have a more favorable matchup here at home against Philly. The Eagles are really thin in the secondary, and making matters worse, Leodis McKelvin will be out with a hamstring injury. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz had his way with the Browns in Week 1, throwing for 278 yards and a pair of TDs. Wentz has plenty of weapons at his disposal, but he might not be quite as successful here on the road against a solid Bears defense. The Eagles ranked 30th overall in total defense last season, and holding the Browns to 10 points last week isn't enough evidence to conclude that they've vastly improved. Take CHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-19-16 |
Eagles v. Bears OVER 42 | Top | 29-14 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI@CHI to go OVER the total.
Jay Cutler had the Bears up 14-10 at halftime in Houston in Week 1, but Chicago was shutout in the second half and went on to lose 23-14 to the Texans. The offensive line couldn't keep Houston's pass rushers off of Cutler, and he was sacked five times. Chicago's offense should have a more favorable matchup here at home against Philly. The Eagles are really thin in the secondary, and making matters worse, Leodis McKelvin will be out with a hamstring injury. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz had his way with the Browns in Week 1, throwing for 278 yards and a pair of TDs. Wentz has plenty of weapons at his disposal, but he might not be quite as successful here on the road against a solid Bears defense. The Bears have seen the total go over in nine of their last 13 games in the month of September, and the over is 4-1 in their last four games versus the Eagles.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-18-16 |
Packers -123 v. Vikings | Top | 14-17 |
Loss | -123 | 109 h 42 m | Show |
|
09-18-16 |
Cowboys v. Redskins -3.5 | Top | 27-23 |
Loss | -105 | 154 h 16 m | Show |
10* analysis before game time |
09-18-16 |
Saints v. Giants -4 | Top | 13-16 |
Loss | -115 | 153 h 51 m | Show |
|
09-17-16 |
USC v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 10-27 |
Win | 100 | 140 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
The Trojans were thoroughly embarrassed in a Week 1 loss to Alabama, losing by a score of 52-6. Most of the damage was done on the ground, with Alabama running for 242 yards and three TDs. USC was unable to stop Christian McCaffrey while losing both of last year's gmes against Stanford by a double digit margin.
McCaffrey ran for over 200 yards with two TDs, and caught four passes for 105 yards and a TD, as well as throwing a TD pass in last year's 41-22 win over USC in the PAC-12 Championship Game. He ran for 140 yards and a pair of TDs in a Week 1 win over Kansas State, and he's well rested ahead of Saturday's clash with the Trojans.
Senior quarterback Ryan Burns wasn't asked to do much in Week 1, but he was efficient throwing for 156 yards and a TD on 14-of-18 passing. The Cardinal have won six of the last eight in this series, and they appear to have things locked in a whole lot tighter than USC so far this season.
Expect McCaffrey to put on a show again at home, and Stanford should run away with this one.
Take STAN,
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-17-16 |
Michigan State +7.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 36-28 |
Win | 100 | 140 h 34 m | Show |
|
09-17-16 |
Texas A&M +4 v. Auburn | Top | 29-16 |
Win | 100 | 137 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies have started each of the last two seasons with five straight wins, but have faded down the stretch, finishing 8-5 in 2014 and 2015. Coach Kevin Sumlin’s reputation as an offensive guru took a hit last season, as poor quarterback play resulted in an average of just 28.3 points per game, finishing 71st nationally.
Trevor Knight is off to a good start since coming over from Oklahoma, and the Aggies offense is looking a lot more dangerous. Knight has thrown for 583 yards and four TDs, and he's ran for over 100 yards and two scores in his first two starts.
The quarterback situation at Auburn isn't quite as optimistic, with sophomore Sean White under center. He threw for just 140 yards with a TD and an INT in a home loss to Clemson in Week 1. White threw for 1166 yards with just one TD and four INTs in limited time as the starter last season.
Auburn has only covered the spread in three of it's last 13 home games, and they are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in conference play.
Take AGGIES.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-17-16 |
San Diego State -10 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 42-28 |
Win | 100 | 136 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Diego State Aztecs.
The Northern Illinois Huskies are coming off an ugly 48-17 loss at South Florida, and they face another tough non-conference opponent at home this week. Making matters worse for the Huskies, starting quarterback Drew Hare went down with an injury in last week's loss, and he's out indefinitely. Backup quarterback Ryan Graham started four games for the Huskies last year, including a 55-7 loss to Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl.
The Broncos ran all over NIU in last year's bowl game, and so far in two games to start the 2016 season, Northern Illinois has given up 543 yards and five rushing TDs. San Diego State has one of the top rushing offenses in the country with Donnel Pumphrey, who shredded Cal for 281 yards and three TDs on the ground last week. The Huskies aren't likely to have any answer on defense, and their offense isn't going to be able to keep up. NIU has failed to cover the spread in five straight non-conference games, while the Aztecs have beaten up on inferior opponents, going 5-0 ATS in their last five versus teams with a losing record.
Take SDSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-17-16 |
Alabama v. Ole Miss +11 | Top | 48-43 |
Win | 100 | 84 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
Alabama comes into Mississippi as the defending champions, and undisputed #1 ranked team in the nation. This still looks like a tough spot for the Tide, facing a team that's beat them each of the last two seasons, and playing on the road in a hostile environment. The Rebels lost to Florida State in Week 1, and some might think that somehow makes them vulnerable here in this game. The one thing that I take away from Mississippi's loss to the Seminoles, was that they managed to shut down Dalvin Cook. As impressive as Alabama has been, we haven't seen anybody step up and fill the shoes of Heisman winner Derrick Henry. Bo Scarbrough was expected to be the star, but he's carried the ball just 16 times for 55 yards in two games.
Chad Kelly has thrown for over 500 yards and leads all SEC quarterbacks with seven TD passes. He was the best quarterback in the conference last year, and nothing has changed. The senior lit up Alabama last year, throwing for 341 yards and three TDs, leading the Rebels to a 43-37 win in Tuscaloosa. Given the Rebels previous success against Alabama, and their strong showing defending the run so far this season, I think they should be able to cover this inflated spread.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-16-16 |
Baylor -31 v. Rice | | 38-10 |
Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Baylor Bears.
Baylor has had more than it's fair share of big wins over inferior opposition in recent seasons. Last year's most lopsided win came at home against Rice, by a score of 70-17. They host Rice in the same spot (at home in Week 3) and another blowout should be expected. Rice is 0-2, and it's defense was exposed in each of those games. In a 46-14 loss to Western Kentucky, they were torched for 552 yards in the air. Then the following week in a 31-14 loss to Army, they gave up 348 yards on the ground. The Bears have a more explosive offense than either of those two teams, and they can do it both in the air and on the ground. Rice is 1-6 ATS in it's last seven overall, and 0-7 ATS in it's last seven versus Baylor.
Take BAY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-15-16 |
Jets v. Bills UNDER 40.5 | Top | 37-31 |
Loss | -110 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 5* play NYJ@BUF to go UNDER the total.
The Bills offense was putrid in Week 1, gaining just 160 total yards in a 13-7 loss to the Ravens. It doesn't figure to get any easier here at home versus the Jets just four days later. Their top receiver Sammy Watkins is banged up, still bothered by a foot injury that troubled him last year. The Jets defense didn't look too bad in a loss to Cincinnati on Sunday, holding the Bengals to a total of 57 yards on the ground, and sacking Andy Dalton seven times. Ryan Fitzpatrick had an average performance, throwing for 189 yards with two TDs and an INT on 19-of-35 passing. Fitzpatrick has a history of struggling against Rex Ryan's defense. Last year he was picked off three times while throwing for 181 yards on 16-of-37 passing in a 22-17 at Buffalo in last year's season finale. The Jets lost at home to the Bills earlier in the season, by the exact same score. These two teams have failed to reach the total in three straight meetings, and the under is 4-1 in the Jets last five trips to Buffalo.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-15-16 |
Houston v. Cincinnati +7.5 | Top | 40-16 |
Loss | -115 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bearcats.
The Houston Cougars are flying high after upsetting Oklahoma in Week 1, and following that up with a blowout win over lowly Lamar. The Cougars look like the real deal, but I think all the hype as resulted in an inflated line as they get set to face a division rival on the road. Remember the Bearcats are also 2-0, and sophomore quarterback Hayden Moore has thrown for 510 yards and accounted for seven TDs in those wins. Last year the Bearcats went into Houston, and gave the Cougars a scare in a 33-30 thriller.
Cincinnati was 5-1 at home last year, and they played some quality opponents during that span. They beat Miami 34-23, and Hayden Moore threw for 279 yards and a pair of TDs, also scoring a rushing TD in just his second start. While Cinci is in good shape with a confident sophomore quarterback, the Cougars are concerned about a shoulder injury that is bothering starter Greg Ward Jr, who was unable to go last Saturday against Lamar. He's expected to play through pain tonight, but it's hard to imagine that he'll be at 100 percent just four days after sitting out a game. I don't think the Bearcats are going to roll over at home in such a big game, it should be close.
Take CIN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
09-12-16 |
Rams v. 49ers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 0-28 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA@SF to go UNDER the total.
The Niners host the Rams on Monday Night Football, and these two teams have a lot in common. They both finished with a losing record, missing the playoffs last year. They both have below average quarterbacks, and both teams like to focus on running the football. They've gone under in each of the last three head to head meetings, and the under is 4-1 in the Rams last five visits to San Francisco. The Niners have scored an average of less than 12 points in those three games, while the Rams were held to an average of just over 18 points per game. Case Keenum won three of his four starts at the end of last season, but he didn't put up eye popping numbers, with four TDs and one INT in those games. Three of those four games went under the total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-11-16 |
Patriots v. Cardinals -5.5 | Top | 23-21 |
Loss | -108 | 1170 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* GOY play on Arizona. Notes - The Brady suspension is clearly the biggest factor, as he's dropped all appeals and will NOT play. Jimmy Garoppolo has not shown any sign of being able to step up and fill those big boots. Carson Palmer threw for 4,671 yards last year, just 99 fewer than Tom Brady. His 35 TDs were only one shy of Brady's 36. Arizona should have a superior defense, and they have perhaps the fastest wide receivers in the league. The Cardinals led the league in total offense last year, and it shoud be a tough ask for Garoppolo to match serves with Palmer. The Patriots are extremely shorthanded here without: QB Tom Brady RB Dion Lewis TE Rob Gronkowski LT Nate Solder RT Sebastian Vollmer G Jonathan Cooper DE Rob Ninkovich. Take ARI. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-11-16 |
Giants +1 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-19 |
Win | 100 | 175 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New York Giants.
Cowboys fans remain optimistic despite the injury to Tony Romo, but if history is any indication, Dallas is in big trouble. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott played well in the pre-season, but it would be naive to think it's going to be that easy once the bullets start flying for real. The pressure is on another rookie, RB Ezekiel Elliot to carry the load on offense. Everything we've seen from Elliot would suggest he will be successful in the NFL, especially running behind that stout O-line in Dallas. You never really know until a guy proves it as a pro, as evidenced by the disappointing careers of guys like Trent Richardson and Darren McFadden. Dallas lost the last meeting at New York by a score of 27-20, and they beat the Giants by just one point in last year's home opener. The Giants have covered the spread in three straight in this series, and they are 5-2 in their last seven trips to Dallas. The Cowboys have no business being favored in this game.
Take NYG.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|