09-11-16 |
Bears +4.5 v. Texans | | 14-23 |
Loss | -110 | 1165 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Chicago Bears.
The Texans come into the 2016 season with high expectations, but I am not convinced they should be a big favorite in Week 1 versus the Bears. They had a solid pre-season, and new quarterback Brock Osweiler looked sharp. The second year signal caller out of Arizona State won five games as a starter with Denver last year, and one of those was a 17-15 win at Chicago. Three of his five wins came in games decided by less than a TD, and two of those games went to overtime. The Bears looked awful in the pre-season, and they were just 6-10 last year. Jay Cutler actually played quite well last season though, and even when the Bears lost they were normally in the game. Six of their 10 losses came by four points or less. The Bears have covered the spread in six of their last seven road games, and I think the Texans are asked to cover a few too many points here.
Take CHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-11-16 |
Vikings -133 v. Titans | Top | 25-16 |
Win | 100 | 172 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. Vikings fans started panicking when Teddy Bridgewater went down with a season ending injury, but I still think this team has all the tools in place to make the playoffs. Keep in mind, last year Bridgewater ranked 22nd in the league in passing yards, and he threw for just 14 TDs and nine picks. In 2012, they made the playoffs and won 10 games with Christian Ponder as their starter. They have the league's leading rusher from a year ago, and a Top 5 defense. They really don't need more than a game manager, and they should do just fine this season, especially against weaker teams. Tennessee appears to have made major improvement, but I think the Titans are likely still a few year away from reaching their full potential. Marcus Mariota is great quarterback, but he isn't surrounded by a lot of talented receivers. Tennessee had a below average defense against the run last season, allowing opponents to average 113 yards per game. They were even worse against the pass. Expect the Vikings to pound away with the run, which will eventually set them up for a couple of big plays in the passing game. They should edge out an inferior Titans team in Week 1.
Take MINNY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-10-16 |
Washington State v. Boise State -11 | Top | 28-31 |
Loss | -115 | 105 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Boise State Broncos.
The Broncos offense was firing on all cylinders in a 45-10 win at Louisiana Lafayette in Week 1. Brett Rypien threw for 347 yards and a pair of TDs on 22-of-33 passing. He'll face a Washington State defense in Week 2 that struggled against the pass last week, allowing Eastern Washington to throw for almost 500 yards and five TDs. The Broncos have covered the spread in four straight non-conference games, and they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games during the month of September. Boise State's defense has held opponents to 14 points or less in eight of their last 14 games. They've won nine of their last 12 games, and all nine of those victories came by a double-digit margin. We should see another blowout on the Blue Turf Saturday night.
Take BSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-10-16 |
Northern Illinois v. South Florida -12 | Top | 17-48 |
Win | 100 | 129 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the South Florida Bulls.
South Florida won seven of it's final eight games of the 2015 season, and all four home games during that span. That impressive run included a 44-23 win over the #22 ranked Temple Owls, and a 65-27 win over Cincinnati. They host the Northern Illinois Huskies this Saturday, and NIU has dropped off quite a bit since winning the MAC Championship in 2014. They lost 55-7 to Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl last December. Their defense was shredded for 243 rushing yards and three rushing TDs in a loss to Wyoming last week. These teams haven't played since 2010, but the Bulls have out-scored the Huskies 64-9 in the last two meetings dating back to 2002. South Florida has bee very tough at home, going 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight. The Huskies have only covered the spread in two of their last eight non-conference games. I expect this game to be a blowout from start to finish.
Take USF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-10-16 |
Central Florida v. Michigan UNDER 55.5 | Top | 14-51 |
Loss | -110 | 94 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UCF@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines took full advantage of a travel weary Hawaii team last Saturday, beating the Warriors by a score of 63-3. I expect them to face a slightly tougher challenge here at home against a UCF team that pitched a shutout in Week 1. The Knights were 0-12 last season, but I expect them to be far more competitive here in 2016. This program is only two years removed from a 9-4 season and an AAC Championship. As impressive as Michigan's offense looked last week, their passing game wasn't exactly what you would call explosive. Wilton Speight was picked off on his first pass attempt, and finished with 145 yards and three TDs on 10-of-13 passing. The Knights have played five straight non-conference games without going over the total, and the under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 games during the month of September. Weather conditions in Ann Arbor are expected to be less than ideal, with rain and wind in the forecast.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-09-16 |
Louisville v. Syracuse +15 | | 62-28 |
Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Syracuse Orange.
A lot of people have Louisville as their dark horse to win it all this year, and there is certainly plenty to be excited about for Cardinals fans. They certainly didn't disappoint in Week 1, laying a whuppin' on Charlotte, winning 70-14. Lamar Jackson threw for 286 yards and six TDs on 17-of-23 passing in that game. They come into Syracuse on Friday night as a double-digit road favorite, which makes enough sense when you consider that the Orange lost eight of their final nine games last season. When you dig a little deeper though, you will see that four of those eight losses came to ranked teams, including home losses to #1 ranked Clemson and #8 ranked LSU. Neither of those games were decided by two touchdowns, though. In fact, the Orange played three ranked teams at home last season, and scored an average of 24 points in those games. They lost all three, but by an average margin of less than eight points. The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, and the underdog is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in this series. Lamar Jackson isn't the only quarterback to keep an eye on tonight, Wesley Dungey completed 34-of-40 passes for 355 yards and a pair of TDs in a win over Colgate in Week 1.
Take SYR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-08-16 |
Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
The Panthers were a slight favorite in last year's Super Bowl, and they lost 24-10 to the Broncos at Levis Stadium. Cam Newton threw for 265 yards and an INT on 18-of-41 passing, taking six sacks and fumbling the ball twice. He's facing that same Denver defense here in his first game of the 2016 season, and I don't see any reason why he'll be more successful on the road at Mile High Stadium.
The Broncos proved last season that they could win games in spite of poor quarterback play, and surely they won't be asking Trevor Siemian to do too much. C.J. Anderson had some success running on the Panthers defense, picking up 90 yards and a TD on just 23 carries in Super Bowl 50.
The Panthers have failed to cover in four straight road games, and they've failed to cover in Week 1 in five of the last seven seasons. Denver won five games last year with Brock Osweiler at quarterback, and with the league's #1 scoring defense, I'll take the Broncos as a home dog to almost anybody.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-05-16 |
Ole Miss +7 v. Florida State | Top | 34-45 |
Loss | -125 | 976 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Ole Miss.
The Rebels are coming off a 10-win season that saw them upset Alabama for the second straight year. They have a stud at quarterback, with Chad Kelly who led the SEC in passing last season, and he threw a conference best 31 TD passes. They open the season as a significant underdog versus Florida State, and while the Seminoles are loaded with talent, I still think they are vastly overrated.
FSU plays a much softer schedule in the ACC, and while they've won 23 games in the last two seasons, they haven't seen many teams as strong as Ole Miss. The Rebels beat LSU at home last November, holding Leonard Fournette to just 108 yards on 25 carries, keeping him out of the endzone. The Seminoles rely heavily on a power running game, with Dalvin Cook running all over softer defenses. If the Rebels can take that away, it will put a ton of pressure on a freshman quarterback.
Playing FSU in their backyard isn't going to be easy, but keep in mind ... this team went into Tuscaloosa and whupped the national champions last season. I'll take the points thank you very much.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-04-16 |
Notre Dame v. Texas +4.5 | Top | 47-50 |
Win | 100 | 367 h 28 m | Show |
|
09-03-16 |
UCLA v. Texas A&M -130 | Top | 24-31 |
Win | 100 | 923 h 19 m | Show |
10* analysis before game time |
09-03-16 |
Western Michigan v. Northwestern UNDER 52 | Top | 22-21 |
Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WMU@NW
The Wildcats had one of the nation's top defenses last year, resulting in 12 of their 13 games combining for fewer that 52 points. They open the 2016 season at home versus Western Michigan, and the Broncos should be over-matched here. Western Michigan had success against opponents in the MAC last season, but didn't fare to well in non-conference games against Power Five teams. They scored an average of just 17.6 points per game in losses to Michigan State, Georgia State and Ohio State. Unlike the aforementioned teams, Northwestern doesn't have an explosive offense to run up the score. The Wildcats opened up last season with a 16-9 loss to Stanford, and they've gone under in nine straight games in the month of September. The under is 24-8 in the Wildcats last 32 home games, and Northwestern has failed to reach the total in 16 of their last 21 non-conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
02-07-16 |
Panthers v. Broncos UNDER 45.5 | Top | 10-24 |
Win | 100 | 211 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER in Super Bowl 50. They say that defense wins championships, and that might be good news for Broncos fans. On the other hand, the Panthers defense is pretty impressive in it's own right. The Broncos own the leagues' top ranked defense, allowing just 18.5 points per game. Carolina isn't far off, allowing just 19.3 points per game. The Super Bowl will be played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, home of the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers played eight games at Levi's Stadium this year, and not a single one of those saw more than 45 points scored. In fact all but one of their home games saw less than 40 points scored. The Broncos completely shut down New England's high octane offense in the AFC Championship game, picking off Tom Brady twice in a 20-28 victory. A week earlier they held the Steelers in check in a 23-16 victory. Denver has failed to reach the total in five of it's last six playoff games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
02-07-16 |
Panthers v. Broncos +5 | Top | 10-24 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos. They say that defense wins championships, and that might be good news for Broncos fans. On the other hand, the Panthers defense is pretty impressive in it's own right. The Broncos own the leagues' top ranked defense, allowing just 18.5 points per game. Carolina isn't far off, allowing just 19.3 points per game. The Super Bowl will be played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, home of the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers played eight games at Levi's Stadium this year, and not a single one of those saw more than 45 points scored. In fact all but one of their home games saw less than 40 points scored. The Broncos completely shut down New England's high octane offense in the AFC Championship game, picking off Tom Brady twice in a 20-28 victory. A week earlier they held the Steelers in check in a 23-16 victory.
The Panthers come in as the favorite, but I think this game has the potential to be a lot closer than most people think. ESPN says that 53 of 70 staffers are picking Carolina, and eight of 10 Sports Illustrated writers have picked the Panthers. One of the common themes among the pundits is that Carolina has a huge advantage in quarterback play with MVP Cam Newton facing a 39 year old Peyton Manning.
When you look at the "tale of the tape", Newton's statistics are impressive, and Manning's are downright ugly. We've seen a different Peyton Manning in these playoffs though, and it looked like vintage "Sheriff" on the opening drive against the Patriots. Most importantly, he's done a good job protecting the football, with no INTs in Denver's two playoff wins. This isn't his first rodeo, he's been to the Super Bowl three times previously, winning with Indianapolis in 2006.
Denver doesn't need Manning to be great, and the Broncos will likely have a conservative approach, hoping their defense will keep them in the game. The Panthers have looked vulnerable when trying to protect a lead. They've blown big leads against the Seahawks, Colts and Giants.
I'm giving the Broncos a "puncher's chance" here in Super Bowl 50, and I'll take the points.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-24-16 |
Cardinals v. Panthers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 15-49 |
Loss | -107 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARI@CAR to go UNDER the total.
The Panthers opened up a 31-0 lead on Seattle in their win over the Seahawks in the divisional round. While you have to give them credit, it's also fair to point out that they were fortunate that the Seahawks were slipping all over the field, and Russel Wilson threw an interception returned for a touchdown on the opening drive. The Seahawks have already been in touch with the Cardinals, giving them a heads up regarding the proper equipment for such field conditions. I wouldn't expect Arizona to come in and make the same mistakes Seattle did last week.
As good as the Panthers were in the first half last week, they were held scoreless in the second half. The Cardinals defense held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to just 13 points, until Rodgers hit another miracle Hail Mary with no time on the clock, forcing overtime. Arizona's defense has been solid all year, and the Cardinals have allowed an average of just 11 points in their last three road games.
The Cardinals have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-24-16 |
Patriots -150 v. Broncos | Top | 18-20 |
Loss | -150 | 123 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots.
I bet on Denver in last week's divisional playoff game against Pittsburgh, and I wasn't overly impressed with the Broncos. I don't think it would be fair to put all the blame on Peyton Manning, as his receivers didn't do him any favors, with several big drops on passes that should have been caught. Their normally stout defense had plenty of trouble stopping Ben Roethlisberger, despite the absence of Antonio Brown and a couple of third and fourth string running backs in the back field.
Tom Brady threw for 280 yards and three TDs at Denver during the regular season, and that was without Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski who left with an injury. Edelman returned last week, and made an immediate impact with 100 receiving yards on 10 catches. Gronkowski scored a pair of TDs, catching seven passes for 83 yards.
New England should prove to have too many weapons for a Denver team that hasn't had much going offensively in recent weeks.
Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-17-16 |
Steelers v. Broncos -7.5 | Top | 16-23 |
Loss | -103 | 53 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
Pittsburgh only qualified for the playoffs because the New York Jets failed to win their final game of the season on the road against a Buffalo team that was already eliminated. The Steelers only won last week's game at Cincinnati after a controversial penalty put them in field goal range, but they lost Antonio Brown on that play. They come into Denver without their leading receiver, and a banged up Ben Roethlisberger. In addition, they will have to rely on fourth and fifth string running backs Jordan Todman and Fitzgerald Tousaint.
Roethlisberger is dealing with a sprained AC joint, and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. He's going to try to play, but there's a very good chance that Landry Jones will be forced into action at some point. Jones threw for 209 yards with a TD and two INTs on 16-of-29 passing in his only full game, a 23-13 loss to the Chiefs. Even if Roethlisberger is healthy enough to play the whole game, he's facing the league's best defense on the road. He hasn't exactly thrived on the road this season, throwing just five TDs and nine interceptions while losing three of six.
Peyton Manning is back under center for the Broncos, but he's likely not going to be asked to do too much here. He came in and threw for 69 yards on 5-of-9 passing in the win over San Diego in the final game of the regular season. It was Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson that carried the load, combining for 212 yards and a pair of TDs.
The Broncos defense had a league leading 52 quarterback sacks this year, and I expect them to completely shut down the Steelers passing game here on Sunday.
Take Denver.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-17-16 |
Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 44 | Top | 24-31 |
Loss | -108 | 49 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SEA@CAR to go UNDER the total.
The Seahawks defense dominated in Minnesota last week, holding Adrian Peterson to just 45 yards on 23 carries. Teddy Bridgewater threw for just 146 yards on 17-of-24 passing, and the Vikings points were limited to three field goals. Offensively their performance wasn't as spectacular, with Russell Wilson throwing for just 142 yards with a TD and an INT on 13-of-26 passing.
The Panthers defense has been pretty impressive in it's own right, especially against the run. Carolina has allowed opponents to average just 88.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 4th in the NFL. The last time these teams met, Marshawn Lynch was held in check, rushing for just 54 yards and a TD on 17 carries. Seattle appeared to be in complete control of that game, leading by a score of 23-14 with five minutes to play in the fourth quarter.
The Panthers rallied to score two TDs in less than four minutes, and Cam Newton threw the game winning TD pass with 32 seconds left on the clock. Since then this Seattle defense has been far better, and according to Michael Bennett it may be addition by subtraction. "Losing Cary Williams and adding J. Lane and D. Shead in the game has really turned our season around a lot," said Bennett.
Seattle has won three straight at Carolina, and all three of those games saw less than 30 points scored.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-16-16 |
Chiefs v. Patriots -5 | Top | 20-27 |
Win | 100 | 126 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots.
I'm not going to give Kansas City too much credit for their win over the Texans last week. Brian Hoyer deserves most of the credit for the result of that game, throwing four picks, and fumbling the ball twice. The bad news for Kansas City is, this week they will be facing Tom Brady and the Patriots, which will be their toughest challenge since losing to the Bengals in Week 4.
The Kansas City Chiefs came into the playoffs riding a 10 game winning streak, but I'm not buying into all the hype. When you look at who they played during that span, you will see that only two of those wins came against teams that made the playoffs. Both those teams (Denver and Pittsburgh) had their backup quarterback under center in those games.
The Patriots were 7-1 at home this year, and their only loss came against Philly, in a meaningless game with half of their offense sidelined by injury. They get Julian Edelman back this week, and they averaged 33.6 points with him healthy, and just 23.1 in the games he missed.
Kansas City's offense could be in big trouble without their only productive receiver. Jeremy Maclin was carted off last week with an ankle injury, and is not expected to play today. Even with Maclin, Alex Smith has failed to throw for 200 yards in each of his last six starts.
The Patriots have won five straight home games against the Chiefs, and four of the last five meetings between these two teams have failed to reach the total. I like the Pats to grind out a win here in a low scoring game at Foxboro in bad weather.
Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-11-16 |
Alabama v. Clemson OVER 50.5 | Top | 45-40 |
Win | 100 | 77 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEM@BAMA to go OVER the total.
I watched Alabama shutout the Spartans, but I think their defense is getting far too much credit for that performance. They face an entirely different monster here in the championship game, facing a Clemson team with a full bag of tricks on offense. DeSean Watson threw for 3,699 yards and 31 TDs this season, and he ran for over 1000 yards with a dozen rushing touchdowns. They have a talented running back in Wayne Gallman, who ran for 150 yards and a pair of TDs against Oklahoma. The Tigers defense though has given up plenty of points lately. Clemson gave up an average of more than 27 points in it's final four games of the regular season, and they gave up 37 points in a win over North Carolina in the ACC Championship game. While Derrick Henry gets all the press, Atlanta's underrated quarterback has done most of the damage in recent games. He completed 25-of-30 passes for 286 yards and two TDs in the win over Michigan State. He's thrown seven TD passes and no picks over his last four starts. I think we'll see both teams score their fair share of points tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-10-16 |
Packers v. Redskins -115 | Top | 35-18 |
Loss | -115 | 149 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.
If I had of told you two months ago that the Washington Redskins would be hosting the Packers in the playoffs, you would have thought I was crazy. If I told you I was actually betting on Washington, you would have thought I had completely lost my marbles. The reality we live in now though, is that beyond the star power of Aaron Rodgers, and the nostalgia of the Packers previous playoff success, they simply don't look like a good football team.
Last week they played at home against a pretty average Vikings team, with the NFC North up for grabs. Teddy Bridgewater threw for just 99 yards, and Adrian Peterson ran for 67, and still the Vikings managed to win at Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers was sacked five times, throwing for 291 yards with one touchdown and an INT. Eddie Lacy ran for just 34 yards on 13 carries, and he's been held to just 117 yards without a TD over his last three starts.
Washington's offense is firing on all cylinders, coming into the playoffs riding a four game winning streak. Kirk Cousins has thrown a dozen touchdown passes and just a single interception during that span. He's put up some incredible numbers at Fedex Field, throwing for 16 TDs and two INTs while winning six of eight starts.
Take WASH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-10-16 |
Seahawks -4.5 v. Vikings | Top | 10-9 |
Loss | -105 | 109 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle enters the playoffs as one of the NFL's hottest teams, winning six of their last seven games. None of those games were close, as the Legion of Boom imposed their will on opposing teams. The Seahawks rank 2nd in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, and they have allowed the fewest rushing yards (81.5 per game).
These teams met in the first week of December, and the Seahawks steamrolled the Vikings in Minnesota by a score of 38-7. Now the Vikings were missing a few key players on defense in that game, and they might be in a better position to compete with Seattle here on Sunday. That being said, Adrian Peterson wasn't able to get anything going against the Seahawks defense, running for just 18 yards on eight carries.
Teddy Bridgewater threw for just 118 yards and an INT on 17-of-28 passing in the previous meeting, and he was sacked four times. He was equally ineffective in last week's win over Green Bay, throwing for 99 yards and an INT on 10-of-19 passing. Peterson ran for a rather pedestrian 67 yards on 19 carries, but scored a touchdown. He's been bothered by a sore back, and has been limited to an average of 64 yards per game over the last five games of the season.
Russell Wilson comes into the playoffs looking like an MVP candidate, he's thrown for 24 TDs and just one INT over his last seven starts. I wouldn't go as far as to suggest that Seattle is a better team without Marshawn Lynch, but we can't ignore the fact that they were 3-4 in games Lynch played, and 7-2 in games that he missed.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-09-16 |
Chiefs v. Texans +3 | Top | 30-0 |
Loss | -100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.
The Kansas City Chiefs come into the playoffs riding a 10 game winning streak, but I'm not buying into all the hype. When you look at who they played during that span, you will see that only two of those wins came against teams that made the playoffs. Both those teams (Denver and Pittsburgh) had their backup quarterback under center in those games.
They will face a Houston team that really turned it on at the end of the year, winning seven of their last nine. They won four of five at home during that run, and their defense was lights out. They sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times in those five games.
Kansas City actually looked pretty average against some of the league's worst teams down the stretch. Three of their last four wins came by seven points or less, and that was against the likes of Cleveland, Oakland and San Diego. Alex Smith was pretty pedestrian, throwing five touchdown passes and four interceptions in those games. He's in a tough spot here on the road facing J.J. Watt and the Texans defense.
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-03-16 |
Vikings v. Packers -2.5 | Top | 20-13 |
Loss | -120 | 161 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers are coming off an ugly loss to Arizona, while the Vikings absolutely crushed the Giants at home last week. If you judge these teams on their performance last week, it would be hard to make a case for Green Bay here in tonight's game. I'm going to give the Packers the benefit of the doubt, and I can't pass on Green Bay as such a small favorite at home in a must win game.
I also think the Vikings are one of the more overrated teams in the league. Eight of their 10 wins this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record, and one of their two wins versus teams above .500 came against Kansas City when the Chiefs were just 1-5. The only team they beat that had a winning record when they played them was Atlanta.
History certainly favors the Packers, who are 5-0-1 against Minnesota since 2012. Their last home game against the Vikings was a 42-10 blowout win. When these two teams played in Minnesota six weeks ago, Green Bay was coming off three straight losses. They shut down Adrian Peterson, limiting him to 45 yards and a TD on 13 carries, winning 30-13. Peterson is banged up with ankle/shoulder injuries, and might be hard pressed to do any better tonight.
Take GB.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-03-16 |
Jets -2.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-22 |
Loss | -119 | 157 h 32 m | Show |
10* analysis before game time |
01-03-16 |
Eagles v. Giants -3 | Top | 35-30 |
Loss | -115 | 153 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the #NYG.
The Philadelphia Eagles have a long way to go, as they will try to repair the damage that Chip Kelly did during his tenure as the head coach of the franchise. They will finish the season on the road at New York, with offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur filling in as interim bench boss. The Giants are also rumored to be looking at moving in a different direction, and this could be Tom Coughlin's last game as head coach in New York.
There are plenty of reasons to expect the Giants to be more motivated here. You have the fact that it could be the potential Swan Song for a coach that led them to two Super Bowl wins. Odell Beckham Jr. will surely be motivated to have a big game after serving a suspension last week for his performance in the loss to the Panthers. I expect the Giants to come out all fired up, playing with the same intensity you would expect from a playoff contender.
The Eagles look like a team that checked out several weeks ago. They've been brutal on defense, becoming on the second team since 1950 to allow 400+ yards six weeks in a row. Eli Manning has played well at home, throwing for 2,085 yards with 15 TDs and just three INTs. I expect him to light up the Eagles defense here today.
Take NYG.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-02-16 |
TCU v. Oregon +2 | Top | 47-41 |
Loss | -110 | 630 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks.
The TCU Horned Frogs opened the season winning their first eight games. None of those wins came against ranked teams, and their wins over Texas Tech and Kansas State were both decided in the final minute. They scored a touchdown with 23 seconds left on the clock to come from behind and beat the Red Raiders 55-52, and it was a 55 yard TD in the final minute of a tie game that put them ahead of the Wildcats. Star wide receiver Josh Doctson caught 26 passes for 422 yards and five TDs in those two games, and he's not going to pay in the Alamo Bowl due to a sore wrist.
The Horned Frogs lost two of their three games against Top 25 teams, and the one win came against Baylor, and the Bears were starting their third string quarterback in that game. I expect them to struggle against an Oregon team that closed out the season winning six straight, including a home win over #24 ranked USC, and an upset of #7 ranked Stanford on the road.
Oregon's quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. threw 24 TD passes and just four INTs during that six game win streak. He missed three games with a broken finger, and the Ducks lost two of those games. Had he of been healthy, this team might have been playing in a playoff game. This is a tough matchup for TCU, and I don't like Trevone Boykin's chances of keeping up with the Ducks without his top target.
Take OREGON.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-01-16 |
Iowa v. Stanford -6 | | 16-45 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
The Iowa Hawkeyes and the Stanford Cardinal both came so close to playing in the College Football Playoffs, but they've have to settle for the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. There's no doubt that the Hawkeyes are going to take this game seriously, as it's not every year that they get to play in a major bowl game. That's not true for Stanford, a team that has been a powerhouse in the PAC12 over the last decade. The Cardinal haven't shown any indication that they treat these games anything less than a must win, and they have covered the spread in five of their last six bowl games. There's no doubt that Stanford has more talent, with Kevin Hogan at quarterback and a running back that owns the all time single season total yards record. If their defense can just slow the Hawkeyes, I don't think Iowa will be able to keep up. If you look at Iowa's schedule, they only played one team that could even compare to Stanford, and that was Michigan State, who defeated them in the BIG10 Championship game.
Take STAN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-01-16 |
Notre Dame v. Ohio State -6.5 | | 28-44 |
Win | 100 | 578 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Ohio State came into the season as defending champions, and while it won it's first 10 games, it wasn't until the season finale that we saw the Buckeyes look like the team that beat Oregon in last year's final. Ezekiel Elliot ran for 214 yards and two TDs in a 42-13 win over the Wolverines in Michigan. They will face the Notre Dame Irish in the Fiesta Bowl, and I expect to see a similar performance here.
The Buckeyes offense was far more efficient in the second half of the season, once Urban Meyer decided to hand the starting job to J.T. Barrett, who was unbelievable in the win over Michigan. He ran for 139 yards and three TDs in that game. Notre Dame only played two teams that appeared in the Top 25 rankings at the end of the season, and they lost both those games. The loss to Stanford was a particularly painful one, surrendering a game winning Field Goal just 45 seconds after scoring the go-ahead TD. The Buckeyes have covered the spread in four straight neutral site games, while the Irish have only covered once in their last six versus BIG10 teams.
Take OSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-01-16 |
Florida v. Michigan -178 | | 7-41 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Michigan Wolverines.
The Florida Gators fell apart at the end of the season, just squeaking by FAU, and then losing 27-2 at home to Florida State. They needed overtime to get past Florida Atlantic, and their offense looked just brutal in that game. Treon Harris threw for 134 yards on 19-of-38 passing, failing to get into the endzone. He's facing a daunting task here in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, going up against an elite Michigan Defense.
The Wolverines looked like a playoff team until a fumbled punt was returned for a TD on the final play of a 27-23 home loss to the Spartans. They bounced right back winning four straight before getting crushed by the Buckeyes in their season finale. Senior quarterback Jake Ruddock really came on at the end of the season, passing for an average of 324 yards over his last four games. He threw 11 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in those games.
Michigan has plenty of weapons on offense, and I think we'll see the Wolverines find the endzone plenty today. So far this bowl season, we've seen a lot more offense than defense, even when teams with good defenses have played. Florida has a lot of talent on it's defense, but I wouldn't expect it to be at it's best here today.
Take MICH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-01-16 |
Florida v. Michigan OVER 39 | | 7-41 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MICH@FLA to go OVER the total.
The Florida Gators fell apart at the end of the season, just squeaking by FAU, and then losing 27-2 at home to Florida State. They needed overtime to get past Florida Atlantic, and their offense looked just brutal in that game. Treon Harris threw for 134 yards on 19-of-38 passing, failing to get into the endzone. He's facing a daunting task here in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, going up against an elite Michigan Defense.
The Wolverines looked like a playoff team until a fumbled punt was returned for a TD on the final play of a 27-23 home loss to the Spartans. They bounced right back winning four straight before getting crushed by the Buckeyes in their season finale. Senior quarterback Jake Ruddock really came on at the end of the season, passing for an average of 324 yards over his last four games. He threw 11 touchdown passes and just two interceptions in those games.
Michigan has plenty of weapons on offense, and I think we'll see the Wolverines find the endzone plenty today. So far this bowl season, we've seen a lot more offense than defense, even when teams with good defenses have played. Florida has a lot of talent on it's defense, but I wouldn't expect it to be at it's best here today.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-31-15 |
Michigan State +10 v. Alabama | Top | 0-38 |
Loss | -115 | 542 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
For the second straight season, the Alabama Crimson Tide enter the playoffs as a double digit favorite against a BIG10 team. We all know what happened last year, as the eventual champions Ohio State took Bama behind the wood shed. This time they face the Michigan State Spartans, who just happened to have beaten that same Ohio State team on their home turf just a few weeks ago.
Over the last decade, we've been conditioned to believe that the SEC reigns supreme as by far the most powerful conference in college football. People are starting to challenge that idea though, and nobody is more vocal on the subject than Colin Cowerd. The Fox Radio host has delivered several long rants on how bad the quarterback play is in the SEC, and while I don't agree with everything the guy says, I think he hit the nail on the head on this subject.
The quarterback matchup in this game is very one sided in favor of the Spartans, as Connor Cook comes in with just shy of 3,000 yards, 24 TDs and just 5 INTs. Here is what I had to say about Cook prior to the Spartans win over Iowa:
"The way I see it, Michigan State is battle tested, led by a money quarterback with a reputation for playing his best in the big games. Connor Cook threw for 248 yards and three TDs on 19-of-28 passing in last week's win over Penn State. He led the Spartans to a win over Ohio State in the BIG10 Championship game in 2013, and followed that up with a big win over Stanford in the Rose Bowl. Last season the Spartans trailed Baylor by 20 points in the fourth quarter in the Cotton Bowl, and Cook rallied them back to score the game winning TD with 17 seconds on the clock. He threw for over 300 yards and at least two TDs in all three of those games."
The Spartans have covered the spread in seven straight games at a neutral site, while Alabama has only covered the spread twice in it's last 13 non-conference games. The Tide are coming off convincing wins over Florida and Auburn, but neither of those teams stack up to Michigan State. I think this number looks way too high.
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-31-15 |
Oklahoma -170 v. Clemson | Top | 17-37 |
Loss | -170 | 352 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma Sooners.
The Clemson Tigers are the #1 ranked team in the country, yet they are an underdog here in the Cotton Bowl against the Oklahoma Sooners. I've been backing Clemson all year long, and they were my pick to win the ACC before the season started. As much as I struggle with the fact that they are an undefeated #1 ranked team getting points, I still can't ignore the "gut check". My gut is telling me that Oklahoma has looked more dominant down down the stretch, blowing out Kansas State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State and West Virginia. DeSean Watson had a heck of a season, but I think Baker Mayfield appears to have just a little more poise under pressure. He completed better than 68 percent of his passes, with 35 TDs and just five picks this season. Clemson sent three players home after failed drug tests just days before the big game, and one of those players was their #2 wide receiver Deon Cain. I think the Sooners will also have an edge in the ground game, with a dominant offense line in front of workhorse Samaje Perine.
Take OKLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-31-15 |
Houston v. Florida State -7 | Top | 38-24 |
Loss | -100 | 514 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Florida State Seminoles.
The Houston Cougars emerged as champions of a much better than expected AAC Conference, but I wasn't all that impressed with what I saw from this season during the season. In Week 12 they hosted the Memphis Tigers, and they trailed that game by a score of 34-14 heading into the fourth quarter. They rallied to score 21 points unanswered points to come back and win by one. Here is what I had to say about the Cougars after they started the season 7-0:
"The Cougars are having their way with the minnows of their conference, but let’s face it, their schedule is a bit of a joke. Last week they cruised to 59-10 win over Central Florida, a team that is now 0-7 on the season. It wasn’t their first win against a team with a losing record, in fact all seven of Houston’s wins have come against teams that are currently below .500. They are 4-0 against AAC teams, but those four opponents have a combined conference record of 1-13. They gave up a combined 52 points in their wins over SMU and Tulsa, who are both 0-3 in conference play. Their schedule will get a whole lot tougher real quick, facing Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Memphis over the next three weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they drop at least two of those three games."
They will meet Florida State in the Peach Bowl, and I don't like their chances of stopping Dalvin Cook and the Seminoles offense. Florida State only lost two games all year long, and one of those was a close game against #1 ranked Clemson. The other was on a blocked FG returned for a TD in a 22-16 defeat at Georgia Tech. The Seminoles boast the nation's #5 ranked defense, holding opponents to an average of 15.8 points per game. They looked particularly good in their final game of the season, beating the Gators by a score of 27-2 in Gainesville.
Take FSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-30-15 |
NC State v. Mississippi State -5 | | 28-51 |
Win | 100 | 367 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Dak Prescott will play his final game for Mississippi State in the Belk Bowl, and he's likely to have a big game against a pretty average North Carolina State team. Prescott put up big numbers again this year, and the Bulldogs went 8-4 with their only losses coming against Top 25 teams. The Wolfpack lost three of their final five games of the season, and all three of those losses came by a double digit margin. The gave up 56 points in a home loss to Clemson, and DeSean Watson threw for 383 yards and five TDs in that game. North Carolina State hasn't beaten an SEC team since 1999, and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four versus the SEC. This looks like quite the mismatch, and I think we'll see the Bulldogs win in a Blowout in the Belk Bowl.
Take MISST.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-30-15 |
Memphis v. Auburn OVER 62.5 | Top | 10-31 |
Loss | -110 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MEM@AUB to go OVER the total.
The Memphis Tigers won't be intimidated facing an SEC team in the Birmingham Bowl, as they beat on a much better SEC team when they won at home by a score of 37-24 against Ole Miss in October. I think they'll score their fair share of points against Auburn here, but it might not matter if they can't stop the Tigers from scoring. Memphis ranked 113th nationally allowing opponents to average over 269 passing yards per game during the regular season. Auburn's quarterback Jeremy Johnson had a disappointing season, but he looked pretty solid scoring four TDs in a 56-34 win over Idaho in Week 14. Allowing the Vanals to score 34 points in that game doesn't say a lot for their defense. So far we haven't seen a lot of defense in these bowl games, and I expect that trend to continue here today.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-29-15 |
Texas Tech +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 27-56 |
Loss | -125 | 351 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The LSU Tigers have a history of not showing up for bowl games, losing three of their last four, and failing to cover the spread in all of those games. That's not the case for the Red Raiders, who have won four straight, and nine of their last 11. Kliff Kingsbury's high octane, pass heavy offense is perhaps more suited to bowl games, while LSU's power running game isn't quite as effective.
Texas Tech ranked second nationally scoring an average of 46.6 points while averaging just shy of 600 yards per game. The Tigers closed out the season with an uninspiring win over Texas A&M, but had lost it's previous three. The Red Raiders scored 107 points in wins over Kansas State and Texas in it's final two games of the season. Texas Tech has a huge advantage at quarterback, with Patrick Mahomes who threw for 756 yards and four TDs in his last two starts. Brandon Harris threw five picks in his last four games for LSU.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-29-15 |
Baylor v. North Carolina +3 | | 49-38 |
Loss | -107 | 492 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Baylor has a history of coming out flat in bowl games. They opened up a big lead on Michigan State in last year's Cotton Bowl, but the Spartans rallied to win by a score of 42-41. The previous year they were upset by the UCF Knights, losing 52-42 in the Fiesta Bowl. Baylor comes into the Russell Athletic Bowl with it's third string wide receiver, and without leading rusher Shock Linwood and leading receiver Corey Coleman.
The Bears looked awful losing their final two games of the season, with backup quarterback Jarret Stidham sitting out with a sore ankle, and Chris Johnson filling in at quarterback. They face a high flying Tar Heels team that had won 11 straight before losing 45-37 to #1 ranked Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. A win in this game would be huge for North Carolina, a team that came into the season with little expectation. Not so much for Baylor though, and the Bears aren't likely to treat this game very seriously.
Take UNC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-28-15 |
Bengals v. Broncos -177 | Top | 17-20 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos host the Bengals in a Monday Night Football matchup with massive playoff implications. Both teams will start backup quarterbacks, but I think it's pretty clear that this favors the home team with a superior defense, and more experience with Brock Osweiler starting for the sixth time this season. Last week he threw for 298 yards with three TDs and an INT, but the Broncos allowed the Steelers to come from behind and win, despite leading 27-13 at halftime.
We can't blame Osweiler for the Broncos surrendering 21 unanswered points, and it's unlikely that A.J. McCarron will be able to duplicate what Ben Roethlisberger did in that game. McCarron threw for 162 yards and a TD on 15-of-21 passing in a win over the 49ers last week. He threw a pair of interceptions in a home loss to the Steelers a week earlier, and he's facing one of the NFL's toughest defenses, as Denver ranks second in sacks with 47.
The Bengals receiving corps is banged up, with A.J. Green battling a back injury and Tyler Eifert sidelined with a concussion. The under is 5-1-1 in Broncos last seven home games, and Denver is 12-4 ATS in it's last 16 games in December.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-28-15 |
Pittsburgh v. Navy OVER 52.5 | Top | 28-44 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PIT@NAVY to go OVER the total.
The Navy Midshipmen will play the Pittsburgh Panthers at home in the Military Bowl, and I expect to see both these teams score their share of points. The total opened at 56, but has since been bet down a few points. Navy won 10 games during the season, and it's Triple-Option Offense was very successful. Pittsburgh managed to beat Georgia Tech earlier this season, but the Yellow Jackets who run a similar offense ran all over them, totaling 376 yards and three rushing TDs in a 31-28 loss. They lost to Notre Dame, and the Irish ran for 175 yards, winning 42-30. Pittsburgh has gone over in four of it's last five non-conference games, and Navy has gone over in nine of it's last 13 games on artificial turf.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-27-15 |
Giants v. Vikings UNDER 44.5 | | 17-49 |
Loss | -105 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NYG@MIN to go UNDER the total.
The Giants are now playing for pride after Washington clinched the NFC East with a 38-24 win at Philly on Saturday. The Vikings on the other hand are still battling the Packers for first place in the NFC North, so we can expect them to be prepared to grind out a win. The Giants defense has had all sorts of trouble stopping the pass, but the Vikings aren't likely to air it out as much as their previous opponents have. The Vikings rank 31st in the NFL averaging just 191 passing yards per game. Cold winter weather could make passing even more difficult for both teams, with sub-zero temperatures, wind and chances of snow in the forecast. Adrian Peterson will play for the Vikings, but he's only totaled 150 yards on 49 carries over the last three weeks, while being bothered by an ankle injury. The under is 6-2 in Minnesota's last eight home games, and the Vikes have seen five of their last seven meetings with New York fall short of the total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-27-15 |
Browns v. Chiefs -10 | Top | 13-17 |
Loss | -115 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 30-13 blowout loss at Seattle, and they've dropped eight of their last nine overall. Their only win during that span came at home to the lowly San Francisco 49ers. They face the hottest team in the league this Sunday, traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs, who have won eight straight. This is a must win game for the Chiefs, who are still in the hunt for a playoff spot.
Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse for the Browns, they had a pair of players arrested with drugs and guns in a holiday traffic stop. One of those players was starting lineman Armonty Bryant, who was second on the team with 5.5 sacks. What's more worrying though for the Browns, is that this is unlikely to be an isolated incident. We already know that Johnny Manziel has issues with alcoholism and substance abuse, and there's probably a number of other players in the locker room with some very bad habits.
The Chiefs are ranked second in the NFL with a +15 turnover ratio, and their defense ranks third in the NFL allowing an average of just 18.4 points per game. I don't see the Browns posing much of a threat here, and this game should be a blowout.
Take KC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-26-15 |
Redskins +4 v. Eagles | | 38-24 |
Win | 100 | 138 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.
The Eagles will host Washington on Boxing Day, and they are asked to cover a handful of points against a Redskins team that seems to be in a bit of a groove. Washington is in first place in the NFC East after spanking Buffalo last week. They've won three of their last four, and the one loss came by just three points against Dallas. The Eagles on the other hand have been fading, losing last week to Arizona, and dropping three of their last four at home.
The one game that Philly did win during that span was a 23-20 win over Buffalo, aided by turnovers and over 100 yards in penalties charged to the Bills. Chip Kelly still looks like a bit of a mad man on the sidelines, and it's becoming clearer by the day that he doesn't belong in the NFL. He raised a lot of eyebrows last week, when the Eagles went for it on fourth and inches, and Kelly chose to hand off to Ryan Matthews while DeMarco Murray appeared stunned on the sidelines. Keep in mind Murray has converted on a perfect 12-of-12 on fourth and short this season.
The Philly secondary has been lit up in recent weeks, allowing the likes of Matthew Stafford and Jameis Winston to throw for a combined 10 TDs. They rank 24th in the NFL against the pass, allowing 259 yards per game. Kirk Cousins has really come into his own, throwing for over 300 yards in three of his last four starts, with seven TDs and just one INT. He hooked up with former Eagle DeSean Jackson for 153 yards and a TD last week.
It wouldn't be much of a surprise to see D-Jax have another big game in Philly... YOU LIKE THAT?
Take WAS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-26-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Washington State -140 | Top | 14-20 |
Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington State Cougars. The Cougars will have starting quarterback Luke Faulk under center when they take on Miami in the Hyundai Sun Bowl. They will also have PAC12 Coach of the Year Mike Leach, while the Hurricanes have an interim coach on their sideline. Faulk averaged an FBS best 387 passing yards per game this season, helping the Cougars win eight of his 11 starts. He missed the season finale with a concussion, but he's had five weeks to recover, and comes into today's game 100% healthy. Miami won eight games this season, but lost three of four games against ranked opponents. They should have lost all four of those games, but the officials committed a series of errors allowing them to upset Duke on a controversial kick return for the game winning TD. Washington State's resume includes impressive road wins at Oregon and UCLA, and I expect them to score at will against the Hurricanes 83rd ranked defense. Take WSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-24-15 |
Middle Tennessee State v. Western Michigan -185 | | 31-45 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Western Michigan Broncos.
The Broncos looked very strong in their final game of the season, knocking the Rockets out of contention for the Conference Championship, winning 35-30 at Toledo. They finished the season with a record of 7-5, but played the likes of Ohio State, Michigan State and Georgia Southern. The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders finished the season winning four in a row, but those wins came against cupcakes.
Western Michigan's junior quarterback Zack Terrel had a solid season, throwing for 3,225 yards and 27 TDs. He was very good in conference play, throwing 17 TD passes and just two INTs while winning six of eight games. Western Michigan ranks second among all FBS teams in time of possession. The Broncos are controlling the ball for 34.5 minutes per game.
Take WMU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-23-15 |
Georgia Southern v. Bowling Green -7 | | 58-27 |
Loss | -102 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Bowling Green Falcons. The Georgia Southern Eagles led the nation in rushing during the season, but their impressive stats came against some of the countries weakest teams in the Sun Belt Conference. They didn't look great in their final game of the season, losing to Georgia State by a score of 34-7. Nick Arbuckle torched the Eagles secondary for 346 yards and three TDs. Tonight they are facing one of the nation's best quarterbacks in Matt Johnson, who was second in the country with 4,700 passing yards and 43 TDs. Georgia Southern did not fare well on the rare occasions when facing good quarterbacks, losing to West Virginia 44-0. and to Appalachian State 31-13. As good as their running game is, they are totally one-dimensional, with no passing game to speak of. The Falcons have had plenty of time to prepare for this, and I like their chances of stuffing their persistent attempts to run. Bowling Green's defense held Northern Illinois to just 14 points in the MAC Championship game, and the Falcons ran for 266 yards and three scores winning 34-14. I like Matt Johnson to put on a show here, leading the Falcons to a big win in the Go Daddy Bowl. Take BGRN. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-21-15 |
Lions v. Saints -3 | Top | 35-27 |
Loss | -105 | 188 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Detroit Lions started the season by losing seven of their first eight games. Then they salvaged a little bit of respect with a three game winning streak, but the party was over when they lost a heart-breaker on a last second Hail Mary game winner at home versus the Packers. Last week they lost 21-14 at St. Louis, and Mathew Stafford was sacked four times, throwing for 245 yards, two TDs and an INT.
The Saints on the other hand are coming off an impressive road win at Tampa, and their defense limited Jameis Winston to 182 yards and a TD on 18-of-32 passing. The week before that they gave the undefeated Carolina Panthers a real run for their money at home, but Carolina came from behind to win on a late TD.
Drew Brees has thrown 25 TD passes this year, and 17 of those have come at the Superdome. The Lions have lost three straight at New Orleans since 2009, and each of those losses came by a double-digit margin.
The Saints have always been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde home team, and they've covered the spread in four of their last five at the Superdome. The Lions are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Take N.O.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-20-15 |
Cardinals -170 v. Eagles | | 40-17 |
Win | 100 | 68 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Eagles are coming off back to back wins over New England and Buffalo, but they got incredibly lucky in those games. Of course they caught the Patriots without Edelman and Gronkowski, and managed to come back after going down 14-0 early at Foxboro. Last week the Buffalo Bills shot themselves in the foot, finding a way to loose even though they gained 412 yards and dominated time of possession.
The Bills were penalized 15 times for 101 yards, and turned the ball over twice. This Week the Eagles will host an Arizona team that has won seven straight overall, and six of seven on the road this season. Carson Palmer is second in the NFL in passing, right behind Tom Brady, with 4003 yards and 31 TDs. He should have a big day against the Eagles secondary that ranks 22nd in the league allowing over 252 passing yards per game.
The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in the last five games against Philly, and they should be able to shut down an Eagles offense that has never really "taken flight" under Chip Kelly. Keep in mind that while the Eagles have won their last two games, they still have a giant mess with DeMarco Murray, and a head coach that is likely on his way back to college.
Take Arizona.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-20-15 |
Bears +7 v. Vikings | | 17-38 |
Loss | -130 | 61 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Bears.
The Minnesota Vikings are coming off back to back losses to Seattle and Arizona, but they are a big favorite at home versus the Bears this Sunday. The Bears appear to be a better team than their record suggests, with four of their last five losses coming in games decided by three points or less. They have also won four of their six road games so far, and Jay Cutler has thrown for 1,408 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs in those games.
Cutler has been quite impressive this season, doing an excellent job protecting the football. He's always had a big arm, and he's put up big numbers since coming into the league with Denver. This season he's showed the poise under pressure that you expect from a veteran, and he could have a big day against a banged up Vikings secondary. Last week he threw for 315 yards and a pair of TDs in a 24-21 loss to Washington.
These teams have split the last eight meetings dating back to 2012, and four of the last five meetings have been decided by three points or less. I don't think this is going to be an easy game for a Vikings team that is missing so many key players on defense.
Take CHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-20-15 |
Panthers -4.5 v. Giants | | 38-35 |
Loss | -100 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the Carolina #Panthers. The Panthers are just three games away from a perfect regular season, and perhaps the toughest of their remaining three games will come this Sunday at New York. The Giants are coming off a big win over the Miami Dolphins on Monday night, and Odell Beckham Jr. looked like Superman in that game. He caught seven passes for 166 yards and a pair of TDs, but that was against the Dolphins 24th ranked pass defense.
Josh Norman will likely be draped all over the Giants star wideout this week, and he's been the NFL's best shut down corner this year. Last Sunday he faced the league's leading wide receiver Julio Jones, limiting him to seven catches for 88 yards and keeping him out of the endzone in a 38-0 shutout.
Cam Newton is playing the best football in his career, throwing for 14 TDs and just one INT over his last five starts. He threw for 265 yards and three TDs in last weeks win over the Falcons, and he's facing the Giants NFL worst pass defense.
The last time the Giants faced the Panthers, Eli Manning threw for just 119 yards and an INT on 12-of-23 passing in a 38-0 loss. The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, while the Giants have lost their last two home games, and have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 versus teams with a winning record.
Take CAR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-20-15 |
Chiefs -6.5 v. Ravens | | 34-14 |
Win | 100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Baltimore Ravens have had their season completely derailed by injuries. They have lost their starting quarterback, their entire receiving corps, and RB Justin Forsett. To their credit, they've played some close games while going 4-9 so far. This will be their fourth game without Joe Flacco, and they shocked the Browns in Cleveland, and then came quite close to beating the Fish in Miami.
Things came unglued last week though, losing 35-6 to Seattle at home. The Chiefs might not be quite the team that Seattle is, but they are in search of an eighth straight win, and I just can't see Baltimore stopping them with what is essentially a team made up of practice roster players.
The Chiefs defense completely shut down the Chargers last week, limiting Philip Rivers to 263 yards and an INT on 24-of-43 passing. He was also sacked five times in the loss. Things don't look good for Matt Schaub, who has thrown four picks in his two previous starts.
The Ravens are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine home games, and this game has blowout written all over it!
Take KC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-19-15 |
Jets -173 v. Cowboys | | 19-16 |
Win | 100 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New York Jets.
The Cowboys are coming off a 28-7 loss at Green Bay last week, and their playoff hopes are all but dead. The Jets on the other hand are coming into this game as winners of three straight, and they looked quite impressive beating the Titans 30-8 last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 263 yards and three TDs in the win against the Titans, and he's thrown nine TD passes with zero INTs the last three weeks. The Cowboys backup Matt Cassel threw for 113 yards on 13-of-29 passing, with an INT in the loss at Green Bay. His six interceptions are one more than his five INTs so far this season. Dallas hasn't been a good bet at home, going -6 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Jets on the other hand are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Take NYJ.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-19-15 |
BYU v. Utah -130 | Top | 28-35 |
Win | 100 | 106 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Utah Utes.
The Utes won their first six games of the season, but they lost 42-24 at USC, and they finished the season winning three of their final five games. They will face a BYU team that finished the regular season with an identical 9-3 record. The Cougars had a much softer schedule though, and they were steamrolled in a 31-0 loss to Michigan. The Utes beat the Wolverines 24-27 at home in their season opener. The Utes are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Bowl games, and they come into this game with plenty to prove. I think the Cougars are in over their heads, facing a battle tested PAC-12 team. The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Utah.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-17-15 |
Bucs v. Rams -140 | Top | 23-31 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the St. Louis Rams.
The Rams quarterback situation is a mess, there's no doubt about that. Nick Foles has been so bad, that they've turned to Case Keenum in recent weeks. The backup signal caller hasn't impressed either, throwing for just 260 yards with a TD and an INT on 26-of-48 passing while losing two of his three starts. Their recipe for success this week will be to ask very little of their quarterback, will leaning on their running game. They will also try to terrorize rookie Jameis Winston, the way they terrorized Matt Stafford last week.
The held the Lions to 220 passing yards, sacking Stafford four times and forcing an INT. St. Louis ranks 6th in the NFL with 38 sacks on the season, and if they can put the pressure on Winston, he's going to make mistakes. He's had issues protecting the football that go back to his college days at Florida State, where last year he threw 18 picks in 14 games last year.
Todd Gurley ran for 140 yards and two TDs on just 16 carries last week, and I expect him to have another big day against a banged up Bucs defense. They have really missed Kwon Alexander who is suspended for the remainder of the season for violating the league's drug policy. On offense they will not have WR Vincent Jackson, who suffered a season ending knee injury last week.
This will be the final home game for the Rams this season, and could be their last game in St. Louis. You can expect them to treat this as a must win, despite the fact that neither of these two teams are going to the playoffs. The Rams have won three straight against the Bucs, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus Tampa.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-13-15 |
Cowboys v. Packers -6.5 | | 7-28 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Green Bay Packers.
The Dallas Cowboys are just 4-8, but they are just one game out of first place in the woeful NFC East. They have their work cut out for them here on the road in Green Bay, facing a Packers team that has had extra time to rest and prepare after a their thrilling "Motor City Miracle" win in Detroit last Thursday night. Green Bay now sits alone at the top of the NFC North, with a record of 8-4. Dallas has lost the last four meetings in this series, going back to 2008. The Cowboys will hope that backup quarterback Matt Cassel can lead them to victory, but he's lost five of his last starts so far, and was less than spectacular in a win at Washington on Monday. He threw for 223 yard with no TDs on 16-of-29 passing. I don't like his chances of out-dueling Aaron Rodgers, who's receiving corps appears to be getting healthier. Eddy Lacy is also well rested, as he spent last week warming the bench after he violated team rules. He'll get an opportunity to win back the starting job here today, coming off back to back 100+ yards games before last week. "Everything's in front of him," McCarthy said. "If Eddie or any other player wants to jump up and grab that opportunity, it's right in front of him."
Take GB.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-13-15 |
Steelers v. Bengals -141 | | 33-20 |
Loss | -141 | 73 h 15 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the Cincinnati #Bengals. The Steelers are coming off an impressive win over the Colts on Sunday night, but I expect them to suffer a let down here on the road in Cincinnati this week. The Bengals are 5-1 at home, and 10-2 overall, while the Steelers are just 2-3 on the road.
The Colts simply couldn't get any pressure on Big Ben, but I don't think the Steelers quarterback will be afforded the same luxury here against the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks first in the NFL allowing opponents to average just 16.3 points per game. They shut down Roethlisberger in a 10-6 win at Pittsburgh earlier this season, limiting him to 262 yards with one TD and three INTs on 28-of-45 passing.
Big Ben put up big numbers in Sunday's win over the Colts, throwing for 364 yards and four TDs on 24-of-39 passing. That brings his TD total to 15, and 13 of those have come at home. It's impossible to ignore his home/away splits, with just two TDs and four INTs and seven sacks in his three starts on the road.
The Steelers defense ranks 29th in the NFL against the pass, allowing over 275 passing yards per game. It won't get any easier facing Andy Dalton, A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert. It appears to me that the public has fallen in love with Pittsburgh's potent offense, but the reality is that Cincinnati is the better team, with a superior defense, and this line should be a lot higher.
Take CIN.
GL,
Jesse Schule. |
12-13-15 |
Bills +2.5 v. Eagles | Top | 20-23 |
Loss | -110 | 158 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Eagles are coming off an upset win over New England at Foxboro, but keep in mind that they caught the Pats without Gronk and Edelman. They had been blown out in back to back losses previously, and they went down 14-0 early in the win over New England. This week they face a tough Buffalo Bills team that comes in with a red hot Shady McCoy who still has an axe to grind.
Rex Ryan is doing a great job in Buffalo, and it appears that his players have bought in, trusting in his system. The same can't be said for Chip Kelly, who is probably going to be back in college next year. He's made a complete mess of the Eagles, and his players look like they have quit on him. After paying a big price to get DeMarco Murray, the Eagles are rumored to be considering cutting last year's leading rusher.
The Eagles secondary is really struggling, and opposing quarterbacks have a whopping 13 passing TDs against Philly in it's last three games. They are going to have a tough time containing Sammy Watkins, who finally looks healthy after battling injuries early in the year. He's caught 14 passes for 267 yards and three scored in his last two games.
LeSean McCoy ran for 112 yards on just 21 carries against Houston last week, and I think he's going to have a big day in his return to Philly.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-13-15 |
Saints +4 v. Bucs | Top | 24-17 |
Win | 100 | 103 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The New Orleans Saints came very close to upsetting the undefeated Carolina Panthers last week, but Cam Newton threw the game winning TD pass with just one minute left on the clock, and the Panthers won 41-38. The Bucs also scored late to come from behind and beat the Falcons at home last week, and they are asked to cover a big spread at home versus the Saints today. Jameis Winston has had his moments this season, but his best games have been on the road. He's thrown six TD passes and nine picks at home, while he's thrown for 11 TDs and just two picks on the road. The Bucs are 6-6 overall, but three of those wins came by four points or less. Tampa doesn't inspire much confidence as a home favorite, going 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 home games.
Take N.O.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-13-15 |
Falcons +7.5 v. Panthers | Top | 0-38 |
Loss | -110 | 73 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
The Panthers are now 12-0, and the hype machine is still churning at full speed. They are hosting a struggling Atlanta Falcons team this week, and they are asked to cover a big number at home. I think this team is long overdue for a let down, and last week in New Orleans they needed to score late to come from behind and steal a win. They went down 14-0 early in that game, and they allowed the Saints to score a whopping 38 points.
The Falcons have lost five straight, but four of those five losses came by a margin of four points or less. Matt Ryan has had his struggles, but he's still 5th in the NFL in passing yards with 3,481. Julio Jones leads the NFL in receiving yards with 1,338, and I think the dynamic duo will be able to put points on the board here against the Panthers.
Carolina crushed the Falcons in Atlanta last season by a score of 34-3, but the Falcons won in Carolina by a score of 19-17. Exactly half of the Panthers 12 wins this year have come by single digits, but four of their six home wins were decided by eight points or less.
It's not easy to be at your best every night, or every week - as evidenced by the Patriots loss to the Broncos, or the Warriors losing last night to the Milwaukee Bucks. I like the Falcons to keep this game close, and don't be surprised to see another shocking upset.
Take ATL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-10-15 |
Vikings v. Cardinals -7 | Top | 20-23 |
Loss | -120 | 65 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Minnesota Vikings are still tied with Green Bay at the top of the NFC North, but they were exposed by the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. I bet on Seattle in that game, and here is what I said prior to kickoff:
"This is a Vikings team that I believe is one of the most overrated in the NFL. Last week's win over Atlanta marked the first time the Vikes actually beat a team with a winning record, as Minnesota has taken advantage of a very soft schedule."
"Minnesota has faced just three teams with a record above .500, losing two of those three. I don't see them stopping the Seahawks here today."
They had no answer for Seattle's offense, and injuries to key defenders Antone Exum, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith did not help. All three players will miss tonight's game in Arizona.
"The Vikings rookie quarterback has looked pretty shaky all season long, and I think facing an opportunistic Seahawks defense will be a recipe for disaster for Teddy Bridgewater. He threw for just 174 yards with no TDs and an INT in last week's win over Atlanta, and his eight TDs this season are only one more than his total interceptions (7)."
Bridgewater threw for just 118 yards and an INT on 17-of-28 passing in the loss to the Seahawks. Adrian Peterson was not pleased with his role in last week's loss, and has told reporters that his team was out-coached. Those comments aren't likely to sit will with Mike Zimmer, but Peterson isn't backing off, telling the media he stands by his comments.
The Cardinals boast the NFL's 4th ranked defense, allowing fewer than 20 points per game. They are particularly strong against the run, allowing opponents to average just 89 rushing yards per game.
This matchup looks like a disaster waiting to happen for the Vikings on a short week.
Take ARIZ.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-07-15 |
Cowboys v. Redskins -178 | Top | 19-16 |
Loss | -178 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Washington Redskins.
The Redskins are sitting at the top of the NFC East, despite a losing record of 5-6. They've won four straight at home, and they host the last place Cowboys tonight looking to make it five in a row. Kirk Cousins threw for 302 yards and a TD on 20-of-29 passing in a win over the Giants last Sunday. He connected with DeSean Jackson for a 63 yard pass in that game. Cousins has been actually been lighting it up at home in 2015, completing better than 74 percent of his passes for 1,632 yards and a 11 TDs with just two INTs.
The Cowboys are still winless without Tony Romo, and Matt Cassel will get the start tonight. The 33 year old has thrown as many picks (5) as TDs so far. Four of those five interceptions have come on the road, and he has thrown just one TD pass in those games. Ideally the Cowboys would like to lean on their running game, but they haven't had much success running the ball lately. Darren McFadden picked up just 11 yards on 10 carries in the loss to Carolina. Dallas has failed to cover in four of it's last five visits to Washington, and I don't like it's chances here tonight.
Take WAS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-15 |
Colts +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 10-45 |
Loss | -123 | 44 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts aren't getting a lot of respect, coming into Pittsburgh as a big underdog on Sunday night. They've won three straight, and backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is 4-0 as a starter this season. During that span he's thrown for over 1000 yards, with seven TD passes and just two INTs. He had a big game at home last week, throwing for 315 yards and a pair of TDs in a win over Tampa Bay.
The Steelers defense didn't look that sharp last week, allowing Russel Wilson to throw for 345 yards and five TDs. Two weeks earlier they were lit up by Derek Carr of the Raiders, who threw for 301 yards and four TDs in a 38-35 loss at Pittsburgh.
The Steelers won big at home last year, defeating the Colts by a score of 51-34. Prior to that though these teams had played three straight games decided by three points or less. Given Pittsburgh's questionable defense, I think the Steelers are being asked to cover far too many points here on Sunday night.
Take INDY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-15 |
Panthers v. Saints OVER 49.5 | Top | 41-38 |
Win | 100 | 159 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CAR@NO to go OVER the total.
The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury.
It wouldn't be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week's game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn't easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league's bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23.
The Saints aren't exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league's top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that's been the case again this year. He's thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he's only been picked off four times in those five games.
He's going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it's share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they've only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss.
The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-15 |
Panthers v. Saints +7 | Top | 41-38 |
Win | 100 | 158 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week's game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn't easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league's bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23.
The Saints aren't exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league's top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that's been the case again this year. He's thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he's only been picked off four times in those five games.
He's going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it's share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they've only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss.
The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game, and I expect the Saints to keep it close, if not win outright.
Take N.O.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-15 |
Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 49 | Top | 35-28 |
Loss | -102 | 101 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI@NE to go UNDER the total.
The Eagles have looked like the worst team in the NFL the last two weeks, losing back to back blowouts at Detroit and at home to Tampa Bay. This week's game at Foxboro looks like a tough one at first glance, but there are plenty of reasons to expect the unexpected. The Pats appear to be vulnerable, coming off a tough loss at Denver last Sunday. While they lost on the scoreboard, they also lost TE Rob Gronkowski to a knee injury, and defenders Patrick Chung and Donta Hightower were also banged up in Denver.
Tom Brady has been taking a beating the last few weeks, and he was sacked three times last Sunday. His receiving corps this week is likely to look like a practice squad, as in addition to the injury to Gronkowski, Aaron Dobson and Julian Edelman are out, and Danny Amendola is questionable.
More good news for Philly, it looks like starting quarterback Sam Bradford will return to face the Patriots after missing the last two games due to injury. The Eagles are still very much alive in the NFC East, so there is still plenty to play for here. With all of New England's injuries, the bookmakers have ajusted the point spread by as much as six points, but the total remains the same. I think this is a mistake.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-15 |
Seahawks v. Vikings | | 38-7 |
Win | 100 | 156 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
After going to back to back Super Bowls, most expected Seattle to be one of the league's top teams again this season. When they lost five of their first 10 games, everybody started asking: "what's wrong with Seattle?". The fact is, they lost to some great teams. Panthers, Packers, Cardinals and Bengals have a combined record of 37-8. They weren't blown out in any of those games, in fact they led in the fourth quarter in all five of their losses.
Seattle has battled back to a respectable 6-5, and still has expectations of another playoff run. They will be on the road at Minnesota this week, facing a Vikings team that I believe is one of the most overrated in the NFL. Last week's win over Atlanta marked the first time the Vikes actually beat a team with a winning record, as Minnesota has taken advantage of a very soft schedule.
The Vikings rookie quarterback has looked pretty shaky all season long, and I think facing an opportunistic Seahawks defense will be a recipe for disaster for Teddy Bridgewater. He threw for just 174 yards with no TDs and an INT in last week's win over Atlanta, and his eight TDs this season are only one more than his total interceptions (7).
Russel Wilson is coming off a monster game against the Steelers, throwing for 345 yards and five TDs. Thomas Rawls has done a fantastic job filling in for Marshawn Lynch, averaging 5.5 yards per carry so far.
Minnesota has faced three teams with a record above .500, losing two of those three. I don't see them stopping the Seahawks here today.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-05-15 |
North Carolina v. Clemson -4.5 | | 37-45 |
Win | 100 | 62 h 0 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Clemson #Tigers. Clemson is well deserving of it's #1 ranking, with a perfect 12-0 record that includes signature wins over Notre Dame and Florida State. They will meet North Carolina in the ACC Championship game, and most experts agree that even if the Tar Heels get the upset win, it won't be enough to put them into the College Football Playoffs. In fact, a North Carolina win would be a nightmare scenario for the selection committee. I don't see it happening though, and I think this line looks a little too low.
There are plenty of warning signs regarding North Carolina's 11-1 record. Two of their wins came against FCS teams, and they surrendered an average of over 28 points in their final four games of the season. They only have one win over a ranked team, and that was a 26-19 win at Pittsburgh. They've been out-scored 109-73 while losing to the Tigers in each of the last two seasons.
Deshaun Watson threw for 435 yards and six TDs in last year's 50-35 home win over the Tar Heels. He's a threat with his arm, throwing for 3,223 yards and 27 TDs this season, and his legs, running for 100+ yards in three of his last four starts.
The Tigers have won seven of their last nine versus North Carolina, covering the spread in five of those seven wins. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games. There's no doubt in my mind that Clemson is the better team, and they should probably be favored by at least a touchdown.
Take CLEM.
GL, Jesse Schule |
12-05-15 |
Michigan State -165 v. Iowa | Top | 16-13 |
Win | 100 | 81 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
The Iowa Hawkeyes cruised through the regular season unscathed, and their perfect 12-0 record has them sitting #4 in the rankings. There is no doubt that this team is for real, and well deserving of that ranking, but the fact remains, they have yet to face a team of the caliber of Michigan State. The only blemish on the Spartans resume came in a loss at Nebraska, in a game that saw a double-digit lead erased in the final minute.
The Spartans though have a big non-conference win over Oregon, as well as road wins at Michigan and Ohio State. The way I see it, Michigan State is battle tested, led by a money quarterback with a reputation for playing his best in the big games. Connor Cook threw for 248 yards and three TDs on 19-of-28 passing in last week's win over Penn State. He led the Spartans to a win over Ohio State in the BIG10 Championship game in 2013, and followed that up with a big win over Stanford in the Rose Bowl. Last season the Spartans trailed Baylor by 20 points in the fourth quarter in the Cotton Bowl, and Cook rallied them back to score the game winning TD with 17 seconds on the clock. He threw for over 300 yards and at least two TDs in all three of those games.
The Hawkeyes quarterback has played well in his own right, but hasn't really proved that he can move the ball against top level defenses. In one of Iowa's signature wins, he threw for just 77 yards with one TD and an INT on 9-of-21 passing in a 10-6 win at Wisconsin. He threw for just 97 yards and just one TD on 9-of-16 passing in last week's win at Nebraska. This will be by far the biggest game of his career, and we'll see how he handles it.
I think the Spartans big game experience and superior quarterback play should prove to be too much for Iowa.
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-05-15 |
USC v. Stanford -195 | | 22-41 |
Win | 100 | 131 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
The Trojans will represent the PAC12 South in the Conference Championship game, despite a record of 8-4. The Trojans won last week by a score of 40-1 over UCLA, but I wasn't very impressed with USC in that game. The Bruins turned the ball over three times, and freshman quarterback Josh Rosen threw a pair of INTs. Cody Kessler threw for just 175 yards and a pair of TDs on 15-of-26 passing. That's not likely going to cut it here in Santa Clara against the Cardinal, who have been lighting up the scoreboard all season long. Stanford won 41-31 at Pasadena earlier this year, running for 195 yards and three TDs in the victory. That was against a much healthier Trojans defense, not the banged up squad that gave up 48 points in a loss at Oregon two weeks ago. The Cardinal have covered the spread in five of it's last six versus USC, and it is also 5-1 ATS in it's last six games played at a neutral site.
Take STAN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-05-15 |
Temple +7 v. Houston | | 13-24 |
Loss | -140 | 73 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Temple Owls. The Houston Cougars are a big favorite in the AAC Championship Game, but I've been very unimpressed with their overall body of work. They finished the season with a record of 11-1, but they didn't face a team with a winning record until November 7th versus Cincinnati. They just barely hung on for a 33-30 home win in that game, and then they needed to come back from a 20 point deficit in the fourth quarter the following week in a 35-34 win over Memphis. Temple on the other hand beat both those two teams convincingly, even winning on the road at Cincinnati. The Owls suffered their first at home by a score of 24-20 versus Notre Dame. They played a far tougher schedule, and have proved that they can compete with the nation's best teams. The same can't be said for the Cougars, who for the most part put up big numbers against the minnows of the AAC, and then were extremely fortunate to have escaped with wins when they played tougher competition. Temple ranks in the Top 20 nationally allowing opponents to average just over 18 points per game, and they held the Connecticut Huskies to just three points last week - (The Cougars lost to the Huskies).
Take Temple.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-03-15 |
Packers -151 v. Lions | | 27-23 |
Win | 100 | 43 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Green Bay Packers.
The Detroit Lions are coming off a 45-14 blowout win over Philly on Thanksgiving, but I think that says a lot more about the state of the Eagles than it does about Detroit. This team lost seven of it's first eight games this year, before going on a three game winning streak. They appear to be susceptible to a let down here this week, facing a Packers team hell bent on avenging a home loss to Detroit just a few weeks ago.
This really is a must win game for Green Bay, coming off a tough home loss to the Bears. The good news for the Packers is that running back Eddie Lacy appears to be back at full strength, coming off consecutive 100+ yard games. They will likely try to establish the run early here tonight, and Detroit hasn't done that well defending the run ranking near the bottom of the league allowing opponents to average over 112 rushing yards per game.
Aaron Rodgers didn't play particularly well in poor weather conditions in the loss to the Bears, I expect him to be much better in the dome in Detroit. He did throw for 212 yards and a pair of TDs in a 30-13 win over the Vikings in his last start on the road.
Take GB.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-29-15 |
Patriots v. Broncos +3 | Top | 24-30 |
Win | 100 | 572 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
I still can't believe the Broncos were a home dog to the Packers in Week 8! Denver's defense was dominant in that game, holding Aaron Rodgers to a career worst 77 yards on 14-of-22 passing. Peyton Manning didn't throw a TD pass in that game, but Denver ran for 160 yards and three TDs. I expect to see a similar result here this week against the undefeated New England Patriots. This is such a tough spot for New England, coming off a short week, after playing a brutal home game against the Bills. Tom Brady took several punishing hits in that game, and he lost two more wide receivers. Already without Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, both Aaron Dobson and Danny Amendola left with injuries and did not return. That will leave New England with no healthy wide receivers that have any real experience with Brady. Gronkowski didn't look good at all on Monday night, with several drops on balls that could have been caught. Brock Osweiler looked pretty sharp in his debut, throwing for 250 yards and a pair of TDs with no turnovers. He should be even more confident playing at home with one start under his belt. Take Denver. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-29-15 |
Steelers v. Seahawks -195 | | 30-39 |
Win | 100 | 125 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks have been to back to back Super Bowls, but they head into Week 12 with a record of 5-5. While everyone is asking "what's wrong with Seattle?", I think this team is a lot closer to where it was the last two seasons than most people think it is.
The fact is their last four losses all came in games that they lead in the fourth quarter. They lost to the Packers at Lambeau, the Bengals in Cincinnati, and at home to the undefeated Carolina Panthers. The Steelers on the other hand are coming off back to back wins over struggling teams, winning a close one at home versus Oakland and blowing out the Browns last Sunday.
Both teams are thin in the backfield, as Le'Veon Bell and Marshawn Lynch are sidelined by injuries. Seattle's backup Thomas Rawls has actually been far more effective than Lynch though, coming into this game as the team's leading rusher, with over 600 yards, averaging over six yards per carry.
I don't think the Steelers are as good as the teams that have previously beaten the Seahawks in Seattle, and I still think this is the toughest place in the league to play on the road. Seattle should take care of business here this afternoon.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-29-15 |
Bucs v. Colts -175 | | 12-25 |
Win | 100 | 146 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Indianapolis Colts. The Buccaneers are coming off a huge win at Philly last week, and Jameis Winston had the best game of his career. He threw for 246 yards and five TDs helping Tampa win 45-17. Now before you get too excited, I'll caution that perhaps that game says a lot more about the state of things in Philly than it does about the Bucs. The fact that the Eagles went on to lose 45-14 to the Lions on Thanksgiving appears to support that prognosis. The Colts on the other hand are playing well, coming off back to back wins over Denver and Atlanta. Veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck threw for 213 yards and a pair of TDs in Atlanta last week, moving to 3-0 this season as a starter. The Colts defense was dominant in that game, forcing four turnovers. This looks like a let down spot for the Bucs, who are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win. Take INDY. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-29-15 |
Vikings v. Falcons -135 | Top | 20-10 |
Loss | -135 | 146 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons have lost three straight, but all three of those games were decided by three points or less. They were a little unfortunate last week, leading 21-7 in the third quarter, but allowing the Colts to score 17 unanswered points. They host the Vikes this week, and Minnesota is coming off a home loss to the Packers. Now I wasn't surprised to see them lose to Green Bay, as I've had the Vikes pegged as one of the most overrated teams in the league.
While Minny has a 7-3 record, did anyone bother to look at their schedule? Have a peek at who they've played, and you will see that not one of those wins came against a team with a winning record. They've beaten the Lions twice, the Chargers, Chiefs, etc.
Adrian Peterson only carried the ball 13 times for 45 yards last week, and he's going against the league's #1 ranked run defense. Atlanta has stuffed the run this season, allowing an average of just 87 rushing yards per game.
On defense Minnesota will be without it's leading tackler and starting safety Harrison Smith. They gave up a season high 30 points in the loss to the Packers, and I don't like their chances of slowing down Matty Ice and Julio Jones.
Take ATL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-29-15 |
Giants -133 v. Redskins | Top | 14-20 |
Loss | -133 | 142 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the NYG.
The Giants will travel to the nation's capital to take on the Redskins, who are just a game out of first place in the NFC East. While the Giants are well rested coming out of the bye week, the Redskins are coming off a blowout loss at Carolina last Sunday. Cam Newton threw five TD passes in the 44-16 win, and if the Giants secondary plays like that this week, we can expect to see Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. have a field day.
The Giants lost a close game to the Patriots at home two weeks ago, but they can take a few positives out of that game. Jason Pierre-Paul has been relatively effective in his return to the defense, and they did sack Tom Brady three times in the loss.
Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins hasn't had any success against the Giants, with a record of 0-3 as a starter, with two TDs and eight interceptions and a 48.6 quarterback rating.
The Redskins defense is going to be thin in the secondary, losing corner Chris Culliver to a season ending shoulder injury last week. DeAngelo Hall will try to play despite suffering from turf toe, while Bashaud Breeland and Deshazor Everett are listed as questionable.
I like the Giants to make it six straight versus Washington with a win on the road here today.
Take NYG.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-28-15 |
Oklahoma -190 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 58-23 |
Win | 100 | 117 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma Sooners.
The Sooners face a must win game here against rivals Oklahoma State, and their playoff situation is simple.. "win and you're in". Oklahoma came into last Saturday's game as winners of five straight, all of those by double digits. They scored an average of 55 points in those games, and quarterback Baker Mayfield appeared to a Heisman frontrunner.
Things went according to plan for the Sooners in the first half of last week's game versus TCU, taking a 16 point lead to the locker room at the half. Things started to fall apart though when Trevor Knight came in to replace Baker Mayfield, who suffered a concussion. Semaje Perine ran for 188 yards last week, and he should get plenty of work here against an Oklahoma State defense that gave up 304 rushing yards and three rushing TDs in a home loss to Baylor last week.
Mayfield has been cleared to play, and that's great news for Oklahoma. The Sooners have covered the spread in four of their last five visits to Stillwater, and they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record. They looked really sharp in a road win at Baylor, and if they play anything like that here tonight, they should cruise to a comfortable win over rivals Oklahoma State.
Take OKLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-28-15 |
Notre Dame v. Stanford -3 | Top | 36-38 |
Loss | -113 | 148 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
Most people believe that the Irish have a better chance to make the College Football Playoffs than Stanford does, but I don't think that's the case. First of all, beating Stanford on the road is a daunting task at the best of times, and without C.J. Prosise, it's even tougher.
The Cardinal may have two losses, but they still can still emerge as the PAC12 champs, and there's some real possibilities that some of the other Power 5 conferences could have a two loss champ. On their own, most of these possibilities seem like a longshot, but Stanford only need one of these to play out.
Let's start with the BIG12. Now Oklahoma is sitting in third, but a loss to Oklahoma State would drop them out of the playoffs. If both Oklahoma and Baylor were to lose, it's unlikely a one loss Cowboys team would rank in he Top 4.
In the SEC, it will be Florida versus Alabama in the championship game, and if either team loses this week and then wins the conference, we would have a two loss SEC champ. It's the same story in the BIG10, as Iowa or Michigan State could lose this week, and still go on to become the conference champ. Then in the ACC, North Carolina could shake things up by knocking off Clemson in the championship game.
So, if you were counting on the Irish being the more motivated team, I think you can throw that thought out the window. Notre Dame wasn't very impressive last week, barely hanging on to beat Boston College by three points. The Eagles ran for over 200 yards in that game, and Notre Dame's defense comes in ranked 68th nationally against the run, allowing opponents to average 168 yards per game.
That likely doesn't bode well as they will be facing Christian McCaffrey, who is second in the country with 1546 rushing yards, just 36 yards fewer than Leonard Fournette. He ran for 192 yards on 29 carries last week, and he also ran back a 98 yard kick return for a touchdown.
The Cardinal have won their last three home meetings with Notre Dame, and all three of those victories came by a margin of at least seven points.
Take STAN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-28-15 |
Ohio State +1.5 v. Michigan | | 42-13 |
Win | 100 | 78 h 17 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Ohio State #Buckeyes. I bet against the Buckeyes last week, and here is what I had to say prior to their loss to the Spartans: "The Ohio State Buckeyes are the defending champs, and they come into this Saturday's game against rivals Michigan State with a perfect 10-0 record. So why should we doubt the Buckeyes? Well, they still haven't have played anybody, and their results against inferior opposition haven't been all that encouraging. Their last home game was a 28-14 win over Minnesota, and yet they are being asked to cover an even greater number here against the 9-1 Spartans."
I'm not ready to write the Buckeyes off just yet though, and I think the bookmakers have overreacted by making them an underdog here in Michigan. Keep in mind that this team beat Wisconsin 59-0 in last year's BIG10 Championship Game, and then went on to lay a beating on Alabama and Oregon to win the national championship.
Ezekiel Elliot only carried the ball 12 times last week, and as it turns out that was probably an error in judgement on the part of Urban Meyer. The Heisman candidate was openly critical of his coach after the game, but Meyer has since defused the situation by agreeing with Elliot's sentiment. The Buckeyes will likely put more emphasis on establishing the run here this week in Ann Arbor.
The Buckeyes have won nine of the last 10 meetings between these two rivals, and they've covered the spread in seven of those games. Michigan has been impressive winning nine of their 11 games so far, but only three of those 11 opponents are currently ranked, and they lost two of those games. While I wouldn't be surprised to see a close game, I just don't think Michigan has any business being favored.
Take OSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-27-15 |
Baylor -1.5 v. TCU | Top | 21-28 |
Loss | -110 | 105 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Baylor Bears.
The Bears will be on the road at TCU, and they'll have a third string quarterback under center. I don't think this is going to be that big of a concern for Baylor though, as they did just fine running the ball against Oklahoma State last week. Jarrett Stidham threw for 258 yards and one TD on 12-of-21 passing, but he was replaced by third stringer Chris Johnson. The sophomore did just fine, throwing for 138 yards and two TDs with one INT.
He was also involved in the run game, with 42 rushing yards and one rushing TD. The Bears ran for over 300 yards and three scores against the Cowboys, and they should have much trouble this week against a soft TCU defense. TCU ranks 75th nationally, allowing opponents to average 174 rushing yards per game.
The Horned Frogs will be missing the nation's leading receiver Josh Doctson, who suffered a season ending wrist injury a few weeks ago. Quarterback Trevone Boykin is also banged up, expected to try to play on a sprained ankle.
At a first glance, you might think TCU did well last week losing a close game to Oklahoma. The final score was a little misleading though, as the Sooners were leading by 16 points at halftime, but Baker Mayfield missed the second half with a concussion. Trevor Knight was terrible in relief, which allowed the Horned Frogs to claw their way back into the game.
The way they lost that game was heart-breaking, and I think that will make it even that much tougher to bounce back here against Baylor.
Take Baylor.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-27-15 |
Iowa -135 v. Nebraska | Top | 28-20 |
Win | 100 | 100 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Even after winning 11 straight games, the Hawkeyes still don't get much respect from bookmakers. They are just a slight favorite on the road at Nebraska Friday, and the Cornhuskers haven't been very impressive at all this season.
Nebraska's defense has been dreadful, especially against the pass. The Huskers rank 124th nationally, allowing opponents to average 305.5 passing yards per game. Iowa quarterback C.J. Beathard might not be the flashiest quarterback in the BIG10, but he has been one of the most efficient. He's thrown for 2,257 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He is coming off a big game against Purdue, throwing for 213 yards and three TDs in a 40-20 win. Nebraska lost to Purdue 55-45 just a few weeks earlier.
Some might point towards Nebraska's upset win over Michigan State, as if that is evidence that they can compete with ranked teams at home. I would be quick to point out that Michigan State held a double digit lead in the final two minutes of that game, and it took a near miracle for Nebraska to come back and score two quick TDs. I think the more accurate examples of how Nebraska fares against quality opponents would be their home losses to Wisconsin, Northwestern and BYU.
Iowa has proven to be more disciplined, taking care of the football and committing fewer turnovers. If they play the way they have played their first 11 games of the season, they should cruise to a comfortable victory here over a sloppy Nebraska team.
Take IOWA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-26-15 |
Texas Tech +2 v. Texas | Top | 48-45 |
Win | 100 | 76 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
Cliff Kingsbury's team hasn't had much success in previous games versus rivals Texas, but I think they have a good chance to upset the Longhorns here in this year's meeting. Texas is decimated by injuries to it's top two running backs, and a key member of it's offensive line. Texas head coach Charlie Strong didn't sound very optimistic about the injuries: "The (Foreman) injury is going to hurt us," Strong said. "We've got other guys who have got to step in and play."
Strong has insisted that he isn't going anywhere, but after another brutal season at Texas, his name has been mentioned as a possible replacement for Al Golden in Miami, or Les Miles at LSU.
Despite the fact that he claims to be committed to Texas, he can't be happy with another disastrous season. He's also well aware that he'll take much of the blame: "A lot of times when you're in the position you're in, it's because of what you did to yourself," said Strong. "We didn't do a good job of coaching. If we did a better job of coaching, we wouldn't be in this position."
Starting as many as eight freshman, and trying to defend Patrick Mahomes with an inexperienced secondary is likely to prove a daunting task for the Longhorns.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-26-15 |
Panthers v. Cowboys +2.5 | Top | 33-14 |
Loss | -110 | 54 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
It may seem strange that the undefeated Carolina Panthers come into Dallas to take on the 3-7 Cowboys, and some bookmakers are calling Dallas the favorite, but this actually makes plenty of sense. The Cowboys are actually 3-0 with Tony Romo, and this is a must win game for Dallas to keep any hope alive for the post-season. It's a classic "Let Down" spot for the Panthers, who travel on a short week.
Cam Newton is playing like an MVP, and he's coming off perhaps the best game of his career, throwing for five TDs in Sunday's win over Washington. Of all the players than might let success go to their head, Newton seems like a likely candidate. In fact, while Tony Romo was studying game film, I'll bet Cam was trying to decide whether he was going to do "The Whip", "The Dab" or "The Nae Nae" for his customary touchdown celebration dance this week.
If Greg Hardy has anything to say about it, his former teammate will be doing more running than dancing. Hardy might not be the most popular player in the NFL, but there is no doubting his ability to get to the quarterback. He comes into this game looking for a bit of revenge on the franchise that he feels turned their backs on him.
While the Panthers haven't lost, they have been fortunate in a couple of close games. They came from behind to beat the Seahawks with a late TD in Seattle, and they survived a second half collapse in an overtime win over Indy at home. I think their luck is about to run out here in Dallas, and I expect Romo to out-play Cam Newton in this one.
Take DAL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-23-15 |
Bills +8.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-20 |
Win | 100 | 89 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Billls.
The Patriots are still undefeated, and they remain Super Bowl favorites despite a rash of recent injuries. They lost their leading rusher Dion Lewis a few weeks ago to a season ending injury, and then last week they lost Julian Edelman for the rest of the year. The Pats beat the Bills in Buffalo in Week 2 by a score of 40-32, and Lewis and Edelman combined to scored three of their touchdowns in that game.
That game might have been a lot different if Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor did throw three INTs, and he's likely to perform better as he's since been picked off just once in five starts. He was also sacked eight times, but Jason Collins played a roll in three of those sacks, and he's sidelined by illness for tonight's game.
We know Rex Ryan gets all amped up to play the Patriots, and his teams have given New England trouble in the past. His Jets might not have won a lot of games at New England, but many of those games were a lot closer than they were expected to be. Rex would be wise to focus on the run, handing the ball off to Karlos Williams and LeSean McCoy, who is coming off consecutive 100+ yard games.
It's going to be a cold and windy night at Foxboro, and I think we could see a close low scoring game where offense is hard to come by for both teams. All things considered, I think the Pats are being asked to cover a few too many points.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-15 |
Bengals +5 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-34 |
Win | 100 | 64 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals are coming off a home loss to the Texans, and it looks like everyone has jumped right off the band wagon as this previously undefeated team is now getting a bunch of points on the road at Arizona. The Cardinals have been impressive this season, but I still can't ignore the fact that all seven of their wins have come against teams with a losing record.
They looked shaky at times even in games that they did win. At home against Baltimore, they really struggled to pull away from the Ravens who were just 1-6 at the time. Then they went out on the road and trailed the Browns 20-7 just before halftime. They rallied to win that game, but rallying against the Browns isn't quite the same as rallying against a team with an 8-1 record. Last week they blew a big lead at Seattle, but managed to come back and win once again.
The Bengals are on pace to allow just 270 points, and that would be the fewest the club has given up since 1978. They are allowing a league low 16.9 points per game, and I like their chances of hanging with Arizona here in the desert.
The Bengals have covered in four straight road games, seven of their last eight overall, and I just think the Cardinals are asked to cover a few too many points.
Take CINCY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-15 |
Packers +1 v. Vikings | Top | 30-13 |
Win | 100 | 61 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
The Packers have lost three straight, and everyone is asking "what's wrong with Aaron Rodgers?". Well two of those losses came to undefeated teams, but last week's loss to the Lions was pretty ugly. During the week Rodgers admitted to reporters that he has been bothered by a shoulder injury.
Let me ask you.. do you think he's going to keep an injury quiet, and then all of a sudden let the cat out of the bag and let an opponent know he's vulnerable? I don't think so. The fact that he's talking about his sore shoulder, leads me to believe that it's no longer bothering him. That's in line with the reports out of Green Bay, as he was apparently throwing darts in practice on Thursday.
The Packers have had the Vikings number, winning four of the last five in this series. Aaron Rodgers threw five TD passes and no INTs winning both games against them last season. While Minny has a 7-2 record, did anyone bother to look at their schedule? Have a peek at who they've played, and you will see that not one of those wins came against a team with a winning record. They've beaten the Lions twice, the Chargers, Chiefs, etc.
I'm expecting the Packers to get back on track this week against an overrated Vikings team.
Take GB.
Jesse Schule |
11-22-15 |
Colts +6 v. Falcons | Top | 24-21 |
Win | 100 | 57 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are coming off a bye week, and they upset Denver at home in their last game. The bad news for Indy is that starting quarterback Andrew Luck is injured, and won't be available when they play at Atlanta this week.
Starting in his place is veteran Matt Hasselbeck, who is 2-0 as a starter, with 495 yards, three TDs and not a single interception so far this season. He's a guy that played in the Super Bowl with Seattle, and has a ton of experience. I don't think the bookmakers are giving the Colts enough respect here as a significant underdog.
The Falcons have lost three of their last four, scoring an average of just 16.8 points in those games. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record. The Colts have won three of the last four meetings between the two teams, and they covered the spread in all three of those victories. I like Indy to keep this one close, and I think this line is a little out of whack.
Take INDY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-15 |
Broncos +1.5 v. Bears | Top | 17-15 |
Win | 100 | 57 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos will be on the road at Chicago this week, taking on a Bears team that is coming off consecutive wins. Before we get too excited about the Bears, let me point out that all four of their wins this season have come against teams with a losing record.
The Broncos will be without veteran quarterback Peyton Manning, and of course the bookmakers have adjusted the line accordingly. Manning might be the best quarterback to ever play the game, but he hasn't been much of an asset to his team recently. He was picked off six times in his last two starts, and last week he threw for just 35 yards on 5-of-20 passing. Protecting the football has been an issue for Manning all year long, yet still the Broncos started the season 7-0.
Their strength is their defense, and they likely won't be asking Brock Osweiler to do too much today. Jay Cutler could be in for a long day, facing a tough Denver pass rush. Cutler has done a great job protecting the football this season, but he's proven throughout his career that he makes poor decisions under pressure. He'll be under pressure all day here on Sunday. The Bears are also a little banged up, with both Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery both listed at questionable.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-15 |
Rams +3 v. Ravens | Top | 13-16 |
Push | 0 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the St. Louis Rams.
The Rams are on the road in Baltimore on Sunday, looking to bounce back from back to back losses. Nick Foles has been just brutal in those games, and last week he threw for 200 yards and an INT on 17-of-36 passing in a loss to Chicago. Todd Gurley only got 12 carries, as the Rams were fighting an uphill battle from the get go.
We'll see a different game plan this week, with backup quarterback Case Keenum under center. The Rams will likely have a conservative approach, leaning on Todd Gurley and the running game. This should be a recipe success against a Baltimore team that found a way to lose to the lowly Jaguars last week.
Joe Flacco threw a pair of interceptions against the Jags last week, and he's throwing the ball to a depleted receiving corps that is missing Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta. The Ravens have failed to cover in seven straight home games, and yet they are a favorite here this week.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-15 |
Bucs v. Eagles -6 | Top | 45-17 |
Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles are coming off a home loss to the Miami Dolphins, but I think they should get back on track this week hosting Tampa Bay. The Bucs are coming off a home win over the Cowboys, and they've won two of their last three. Their rookie quarterback Jameis Winston failed to throw a TD pass for the second straight week, but he did throw a couple of picks against the Cowboys. He's likely going to find it tough going against an opportunistic Eagles defense.
Philadelphia has won the last three meetings between the two teams, covering the spread in all three of those games. Mark Sanchez will come in to replace Sam Bradford, and Sanchez has plenty of experience running Chip Kelly's offense. He started nine games last year, and saw plenty of action in the pre-season. Last year's leading rusher DeMarco Murray has been slightly under used in the offense this season, but he could play a bigger role this week with the backup quarterback under center.
Take PHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-21-15 |
TCU v. Oklahoma -11 | | 29-30 |
Loss | -115 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Oklahoma #Sooners. Oklahoma appears to be in the driver's seat as far as the college football playoffs are concerned. Most experts believe that if the Sooners win out, here at home against TCU, and on the road in the final week at Oklahoma State, they'll punch their ticket into the playoffs. Standing in their way is a TCU team that still has the slimmest of hopes themselves, but comes in off a pair of disappointing results.
The Horned Frogs nearly lost to a winless Kansas team at home last week, with starting quarterback Trevone Boykin on the bench after suffering an ankle injury in the first half. Boykin is nowhere near 100% heading into this Saturday's game, and if he plays there's no guarantee he will be able to stay in the game. He also won't be much of a dual threat if he's hobbling around on a sprained ankle.
In addition to their problems at quarterback, the Horned Frogs will also be without the nation's top wide receiver Josh Doctson who suffered a season ending injury. He had 79 catches for 1337 yards and 14 TDs. Even at full strength, this TCU team has struggled on the road, just barely beating the likes of Texas Tech and Minnesota. I've had them pegged as overrated since Week 1, and here is what I had to say prior to their game against the K-State Wildcats in Week 6 :
"The Horned Frogs are coming off a 50-7 win over Texas, but despite all the hype, that game might say a lot more about Texas than it does about TCU. The fact remains that they've played two road games, both against mediocre teams, and they didn't look good in either of those games. They head out on the road again this week to face a Kansas State team with a strong defense, and once again they are a heavy favorite. They've failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games, and they lost their last visit to Manhattan back in 2013 by a score of 33-31. If you're betting on TCU as a double-digit favorite on the road, you're going to go broke in a hurry."
Oklahoma has won five straight, all of those by double digits. They've scored an average of 55 points in those games, and quarterback Baker Mayfield has emerged as a Heisman candidate. Don't be fooled by this big point spread, I don't think the books can make this number high enough, as this game is destined to be a BLOWOUT of EPIC PROPORTIONS!
Take OKLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-21-15 |
Baylor v. Oklahoma State | Top | 45-35 |
Loss | -115 | 108 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The Bears are coming off their first loss of the seasons, losing by double-digits at home to the Sooners. The result came as no surprise to me, as I had a huge bet on Oklahoma. Here is what I said prior to the game:
"Critics have said that Baylor hasn't played anybody, and last week's 31-24 win at Kansas State didn't silence any of the doubters. That same Kansas State team lost 55-0 at home to Oklahoma two weeks previously, and the Bears host the Sooners this week. The Sooners aren't out of the playoff race yet. They have won four straight by an average margin of 45.5 points since their loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry game."
"The Bears glaring weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, as they've given up a ton of points despite a soft schedule. Baylor ranks 60th nationally, allowing an average of 25 points per game. Bears fans should be pretty concerned about the fact that their team has given up 20+ points to the likes of Lamar, SMU and Iowa State."
It's not going to get any easier on the road at Oklahoma State this week. The Bears haven't won in Stillwater since 1939, and they come in with a banged up backup quarterback filling in for Seth Russell. Baylor struggles on the road at the best of times, and they are facing a Cowboy's team that crushed TCU a few weeks ago. Oklahoma State ranks 5th nationally in quarterback sacks. This line appears to be based not on how these teams have played in recent weeks, or even in this season, but rather Baylor's star power and name recognition seems to be playing a big role. They should be about a 7-point dog on the road in this spot.
Take OKST
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-21-15 |
Mississippi State v. Arkansas -172 | | 51-50 |
Loss | -172 | 108 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Despite struggling early in the season, Brett Bielema has the Hogs playing damn good football in November. They come into this week's home game versus Mississippi State as winners of five of their last six, and the only loss came at Tuscaloosa in a very close game that saw them nearly upset Alabama. They beat the Vols in Tennessee, Mississippi in Oxford, and LSU in The Swamp.
Arkansas hosts Mississippi State this week, and the Bulldogs are coming off a 31-6 thrashing at home in loss to Alabama. This team hasn't been able to rise to the occasion against the top teams in the conference, losing at home to LSU, and getting blown out by Bama and Texas A&M.
Derrick Henry ran for 204 yards and a pair of TDs against this Bulldogs defense last week, and they face a Hogs team that averages over 200 rushing yards per game. They ran all over LSU last week, rushing for 299 yards and three scores.
The Bulldogs have failed to cover in five of their last six visits to Arkansas, while the Razorbacks are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 home games versus a team with a winning record.
Take ARK.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-21-15 |
LSU v. Ole Miss -4 | Top | 17-38 |
Win | 100 | 135 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
The LSU Tigers are no longer in the hunt for the playoffs after taking a beating in a home loss to Arkansas last week. It was their second loss of the season, and I think it's fair to say that the Tigers have been exposed. During their 7-0 run, they racked up a lot of wins against inferior opponents. They beat Florida at home, scoring on a trick play late in the game to escape with a 35-28 victory.
Heisman hopeful Leonard Fournette has failed to run for 100 yards in both games against Alabama and Arkansas, and quarterback Brandon Harris threw as many picks (2) as TDs in the two games. The Tigers are on the road at Ole Miss this week, and this Rebels defense is at least as good as either of it's previous two opponents. Ole Miss is coming off a bye week, and they've won 11 of their last 13 home games. During that span they have beaten a pair of Top 5 teams (#3 Alabama & #4 Mississippi State). The two games that they lost were decided under extremely extraordinary circumstances.
Last year's loss to #3 Auburn saw star wideout Laquan Treadwell suffer a broken leg on a play that appeared to be the go-ahead score late in the fourth quarter. Treadwell fumbled the ball after the injury occurred, and after video review the TD came off the board. Then two weeks ago the Razorbacks executed a desperation play that involved a controversial lateral on 4th and 25 that lead to a 53-52 Arkansas victory.
"If you can't refocus after a bye week and get amped up for the next game then you're playing the wrong sport," Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly said. "I know our guys are ready to get back and ready to hit somebody."
Kelly is the SEC's leading passer, with 3,224 yards and 23 TDs. I think Mississippi is going to be highly motivated and well rested, which should spell trouble for an LSU team that is rumored to be on the verge of firing Les Miles.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-21-15 |
USC v. Oregon -4 | Top | 28-48 |
Win | 100 | 135 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks.
The USC Trojans hardly impressed with a come from behind win on the road over PAC12 bottom feeders Colorado last week. They are on the road at Eugene this week, taking on a Ducks team that seems to be back on track. The Ducks really struggled with quarterback Vernon Adams sidelined by a broken finger. Now that he's healthy, the offense looks almost as prolific as it did in previous seasons with Marcus Mariota at quarterback.
Adams has played well during Oregon's four game win streak, with 10 TD passes and just three INTs. He's getting plenty of help from the PAC12's leading rusher Royce Freeman, who is averaging 139 rushing yards per game.
The Trojans are coming in without their own stud running back Tre Madden, and starting safety Leon McQuay. This USC defense was lit up by Kevin Hogan in a home loss to Stanford, and Christian McCaffrey ran for 115 yards on 26 carries in that game. I don't like their chances of slowing down the mighty Ducks.
The Ducks have won three of the last four meetings between the two teams, and all thee of those wins came by a double digit margin. The one loss came on the road at Pasadena. The Trojans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games versus a team with a winning record.
Take ORE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-21-15 |
Michigan State +14 v. Ohio State | Top | 17-14 |
Win | 100 | 39 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are the defending champs, and they come into this Saturday's game against rivals Michigan State with a perfect 10-0 record. So why should we doubt the Buckeyes? Well, they still haven't have played anybody, and their results against inferior opposition haven't been all that encouraging. Their last home game was a 28-14 win over Minnesota, and yet they are being asked to cover an even greater number here against the 9-1 Spartans.
These teams have split the last four meetings, with each team winning twice. All four of those games were close, decided by a margin less than the number in today's game. The Spartans have an advantage at quarterback with Connor Cook, who seems to elevate his play in the big games. Cook threw for 358 yards and a pair of TDs in last year's loss to the Buckeyes, and in 2013 he threw for 304 yards and four TDs in a 34-24 upset win over Ohio State. He followed that up with big game in the Rose Bowl upsetting Stanford.
The Spartans are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-19-15 |
Titans +3 v. Jaguars | | 13-19 |
Loss | -117 | 43 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans are coming off a home loss to Carolina, but there is no shame in losing to an undefeated Panthers team. I bet on Carolina in that game, and one of the concerns I had about Tennessee, was that their rookie quarterback has struggled against good defenses. He's only really had two good games, but he's still the only rookie other than Tom Brady to throw for four or more TDs without an INT twice in his rookie season.
This looks like a good matchup for Mariota, as the Jags defense ranks near the bottom of the league allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 268 yards per game. The Titans on the other hand have one of the better pass defenses in the NFL, ranking 3rd, allowing just 214 passing yards per game.
The Jags have won three games, with not one of those wins coming by more than three points. The Titans on the other hand have been on the wrong side of several close games. The Jags got lucky in Baltimore last week, and I think this sets them up for a let down here tonight. Mariota has only been sacked once since Mike Mularkey took over as coach, and if he can stay upright, he could torch the Jags for big yardage.
Take TEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-17-15 |
Ball State v. Ohio UNDER 53 | Top | 31-48 |
Loss | -110 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BALL@OHIO to go UNDER the total.
The Ohio Bob-Kittens will host Ball State in a Tuesday night game in the MAC. I'm calling them the the Bob-Kittens because their offense hasn't been all that ferocious lately. That being said, their defense did pitch a shutout in a 27-0 win over Kent State last week. I think we should see a similar score here tonight. Ball State has been one of the worst teams in the country this season, and they only managed 152 yards of total offense in a loss to Western Michigan last week. They gave up 54 points in that game, but Western Michigan's offense is a helluva lot better than this "Bob-Kittens" offfense.
Ohio only attempted 14 passes last week, and Derrius Vick threw for just 73 yards. The Cardinal likely won't be able to contend with Ohio's running game, so there is really no need to ask Vick to air it out here either. Ohio is only averaging 25 points per game, ranking 91st nationally. Eight of the last 10 of the Bobcats home games has gone under, and the Under is 10-4 in Bobcats last 14 conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-17-15 |
Toledo v. Bowling Green -7 | | 44-28 |
Loss | -102 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Bowling Green #Falcons. The 8-1 Toledo Rockets come into Bowling Green as a 7-point dog in this prime time Tuesday night game between two of the bog boys in the MAC. The Rockets will have their hands full tonight, facing a Falcons team that is 8-2 overall and still undefeated in conference play. The Falcons have the nation's leading passer in Matt Johnson, who has 36 TD passes and just four INTs so far. His home/away splits are even more impressive, with 18 TDs and just one pick. He's facing a Rockets defense that looks sound statistically, but has struggled against mediocre quarterbacks the last two weeks. They gave up 277 passing yards in a loss to Northern Illinois two weeks ago, and then surrendered 349 yards in the air in a close game against Central Michigan last week.
I don't like Toledo's chances of hanging with the Falcons tonight. Bowling Green is 5-0 ATS in it's last five home games, and the home team is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings between these two conference rivals.
Take BG.
GL, Jesse Schule |
11-15-15 |
Cardinals v. Seahawks -165 | | 39-32 |
Loss | -165 | 138 h 22 m | Show |
5* analysis before game time |
11-15-15 |
Patriots -7 v. Giants | Top | 27-26 |
Loss | -115 | 163 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots.
The Giants defense is in complete shambles. Oh yeah they did win last week, I bet on them in fact. Here is what I said prior to their game versus the Bucs:
"The Giants lost on the road at New Orleans last week, and everyone is down on this team coming into this week. I've heard so much talk about how bad their defense is, how they can't stop the pass, and look at how many points they give up. All that is true ... but I am not hearing any talk about the fact that Eli Manning threw for 360 yards and six TDs, or Odell Beckham Jr pulling in eight catches for 130 yards and three TDs.
The Giants defense is bad, and I won't argue about that. I will point out though that they are going into to Tampa to face a rookie quarterback that might be the least likely candidate to take advantage of their defensive shortcomings. I mean .. Jameis Winston is NOT Drew Brees. Famous Jameis only threw for 177 yards on 16-of-29 passing in the win over Atlanta last week. If this game turns into an offensive shootout, I really don't like Winston's chances of keeping pace with Eli and the Giants"
They don't have the luxury of facing a below average rookie quarterback this week, as their league worst pass defense will face the best quarterback in the NFL. Just a few weeks after Drew Brees torched them for 505 yards and seven TDs, I really don't like their chances of slowing down Tom Brady. New York only has nine sacks this season, and they have no sacks in their last two games. Jason Pierre-Paul is back, but don't expect him to work miracles.
Early in the season the Patriots appeared to be vulnerable on defense, but Bill Belichick seems to have mad adjustments, and they have looked a lot better defensively in recent weeks. I think the Pats will pile on here in New York, winning this one by double digits.
Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |