Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-18-24 | Sharks v. Flames -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Calgary -1.5 goals over San Jose at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. The Flames fell short in Vancouver two nights ago, snapping a two-game winning streak in the process. I look for them to bounce back on Thursday as they return home to wrap up what has been a disappointing season but in a smash spot against the lowly Sharks. San Jose looks like a team that has already packed it in for the season, coming off consecutive blowout losses by scores of 6-2 and 9-2 against the Wild and Oilers, respectively. Still a number of years away from even contending for a playoff spot, the Sharks are looking to the future. It's a different story for the Flames as they expect to compete for a playoff spot (and a division title) each and every year. There's plenty of roster moves to be made moving forward but I do think this team has continued to play hard down the stretch and finds itself in a prime bounce-back situation on Thursday. The Flames have plenty of young talent in the pipeline, led by goaltender Dustin Wolf, who figures to get the start between the pipes on Thursday. He backstopped the Flames to a 3-2 win in San Jose on April 9th, stopping 20 of 22 shots he faced. Take Calgary -1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
04-17-24 | Hawks +3 v. Bulls | 116-131 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Chicago at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Bulls enter this game on the heels of three straight ATS victories and they're a long-term loser in that situation having gone 117-143 ATS including an 8-17 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Few will give the Hawks a chance in this game given they're riding a six-game losing streak, however, they're 45-38 ATS in their last 83 contests following six straight defeats. Also note that the underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series, winning six of those games outright including each of the last four. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
04-17-24 | Yankees -1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 6-4 | Win | 155 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
A.L. East Game of the Week. My selection is on New York -1.5 runs over Toronto at 3:05 pm et on Wednesday. Kevin Gausman has been awful in his last two starts. In fact, he's been pretty bad going all the way back to last August save for a few starts. When things have gone south for the veteran right-hander it's been in spectacular fashion. Note that in Gausman's last seven team losses, the opposition has plated a whopping 51 runs. After dropping the first two games of this series, I look for the Yankees to rebound on Wednesday afternoon. Marcus Stroman will get the nod for New York. He's coming off a rocky outing of his own but still owns a respectable 3.42 FIP and 1.06 WHIP on the campaign. He'll of course be up for this matchup against his former team. The Jays bullpen has held up well in this series so far but I think it's only a matter of time before it gets blown up. We'll bet that today is the day. Take New York -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
04-17-24 | Twins -1.5 v. Orioles | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota -1.5 runs over Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Orioles have elected to give Bruce Zimmermann the start on Wednesday as they look to wrap up a series sweep of the Twins. This is a starting pitching mismatch as Minnesota will hand the ball to its ace Pablo Lopez. We'll lay the extra run in this spot as the Twins are well-positioned to avoid the sweep in convincing fashion, noting their bullpen continues to pitch well having recorded a collective 2.37 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season. Take Minnesota -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-16-24 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 11-12 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 33 m | Show | |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona -1.5 runs over Chicago at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cubs have now won three games in a row but I expect them to fall flat on Tuesday as they send Kyle Hendricks to the mound against Tommy Henry. This likely amounts to a bullpen game and in that case I'll favor the Diamondbacks based on the situation alone. Note that Chicago has been involved in four straight tightly-contested games in as many days, using many of its key bullpen arms. There's a good chance this one gets way from the Cubs, especially with Hendricks struggling (he's been one of the worst starters in baseball so far this season) in the early going. While I'm not overly high on Tommy Henry, I do think the attractive plus-money return laying the extra run with the D'Backs is too much to pass up, noting that seven of their eight wins this year have come by at least two runs including all six victories at home. Take Arizona -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
04-16-24 | Braves -1.5 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 140 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Braves were high on Reynaldo Lopez when they brought him over from the White Sox and perhaps for good reason. He's proven to be a useful cog in their injury-depleted starting rotation and I look for him to step up and give them another quality outing on Tuesday. It's a much different story for Astros starter Hunter Brown. He has all the tools to succeed but hasn't been able to put it together in his first season-plus at the big league level. He's been rocked over his last two outings and now faces the daunting task of trying to keep the Braves loaded lineup at bay. Behind Brown is an Astros bullpen that has been among the worst in baseball so far this season. It was only a matter of time before the Braves pulled away last night and I expect a similar story to unfold on Tuesday. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-16-24 | Lakers v. Pelicans | Top | 110-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
Play-in Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. While the Pelicans were there in body they certainly weren't in spirit in Sunday's regular season ending 124-108 loss to these same Lakers. I expect a different story to unfold in Tuesday's 7 vs. 8 play-in tournament matchup. Neither team's back is against the wall, so to speak, in this contest as the one that loses will live to fight another day, against the winner of the 9 vs. 10 matchup between the Warriors and Kings. The Pelicans have enjoyed a terrific season and prior to Sunday's loss to the Lakers, had reeled off four straight wins - all coming on the road. I certainly anticipate them bouncing back here, noting they've gone 20-11 ATS in their last 31 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Lakers are 21-39 ATS in their last 60 contests following consecutive wins including a 9-15 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
04-15-24 | Giants -1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
National League Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Miami at 6:40 pm et on Monday. Marlins starter A.J. Puk has proven he's not ready for a rotation spot, issuing 14 walks while giving up 12 hits in barely 10 innings of work this season. The Giants should be in a foul mood after failing to secure a series win in St. Petersburg yesterday. Kyle Harrison looks like he has the stuff to succeed at the big league level and I'm confident he'll put San Francisco in good position to win by margin on Monday in Miami. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
04-13-24 | Cubs -1.5 v. Mariners | 4-1 | Win | 125 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Seattle at 9:40 pm et on Saturday. I think there's a certain feeling of confidence the Cubs have when Japanese import Shota Imanaga takes the hill, even if he is only two outings into his big league career. The Cubs have won his two previous starts by scores of 5-0 and 8-1 and I like their chances of posting another lopsided victory on Saturday in Seattle. The Mariners did take the opener of this series last night as the Cubs bats were silent against Bryce Miller and the Seattle bullpen. This is a fine bounce-back spot as they draw Mariners sophomore starter Emerson Hancock. He has yet to really fine-tune his stuff, as evidenced by a 7.52 FIP and 1.96 WHIP through two outings this season. He's now faced 93 batters at the major league level going back to last season and they've recorded a lofty .325 batting average against him. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-13-24 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas -1.5 goals over Seattle at 3:05 pm et on Saturday. The Stars current homestand hasn't gone as they hoped as they eked out a 3-2 win over Buffalo before a blowout loss at the hands of the Jets. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the Kraken who are simply playing out the string at the end of the disappointing season that won't result in a second straight playoff appearance. Dallas is in a fine spot here as it has gone a long-term 127-59 (+71.6 net games) when coming off a loss by two goals or more against a division opponent, as is the case here, including an 11-2 (+8.7 net games) mark in that situation over the last three seasons and a 3-0 (+3 net games) record this season. Meanwhile, the Kraken, fresh off an ugly home loss against the Sharks, are just 16-26 (-11.3 net games) following a loss this season. The Stars have owned this series for the most part and I expect them to post a lopsided victory on Saturday. Take Dallas -1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
04-12-24 | Predators -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 5-1 | Win | 108 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Nashville -1.5 goals over Chicago at 8:35 pm et on Friday. I expect the Predators to be all business as they carry out this one-game trip to Chicago off a disappointing home loss against the Jets three nights ago. Note that Nashville is 12-5 (+7.9 net games) following a home loss this season while Chicago checks in a woeful 17-60 (-32.6 net games) in its last 77 contests against Central Division foes. After a brief surge, the wheels have come off for the Blackhawks over the last couple of games, falling by 4-0 and 5-2 scores against the Wild and Blues. They were down 4-0 before the ice was even dry two nights ago in St. Louis. Since the start of 2022 the Preds are 7-1 in this series with all but two of those victories coming by at least two goals. Take Nashville -1.5 goals (10*). | |||||||
04-11-24 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Kings | 135-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are 2-0 on their current road trip, successfully bouncing back from a four-game losing streak. They're as locked in defensively as it gets having held three of their last four opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals and 12 of their last 14 foes to 43 or fewer. The Kings have been playing faster lately but it hasn't translated into offensive success. They've gotten off 99, 94 and 96 field goal attempts over their last three contests but were limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in all three. They're likely to be left with little margin for error in this particular matchup with the Pelicans having held an incredible 14 straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Keep in mind Sacramento has connected on 42 or fewer field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests. The Pelicans are 28-24 ATS in their last 52 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 10-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 33-47 ATS in their last 80 contests as a home favorite including a 13-21 ATS record this season. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
04-10-24 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 112 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
A.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas -1.5 runs over Oakland at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The A's have inexplicably reeled off three straight wins but I look for that streak to end on Wednesday. Ross Stripling will get the start for Oakland. He caught lightning in a bottle in his most recent outing, getting involved in a pitching duel with Nick Pivetta of the Red Sox in an eventual 1-0 loss. Those type of impressive outings are likely to be few and far between for the journeyman starter this season, however. After his line drive percentage rocketed last season it has held through two starts this year as well. I look for the Rangers bats to feast. Cody Bradford doesn't get much attention near the back of the Rangers starting rotation but he has the potential to be a quality arm for the defending champs again this year. Bradford won't overwhelm hitters with his pitch velocity but he makes the most of his pitch arsenal and has recorded a 2.91 FIP and 0.47 WHIP through two outings this season. The A's have been winning but have a small margin for error averaging only 3.0 runs per game on the season. Take Texas -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
04-10-24 | Nationals v. Giants -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 107 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over Washington at 3:45 pm et on Wednesday. The Giants are reeling right now having dropped the first two games of this series but I look for them to bounce back on Wednesday. Patrick Corbin will get the start for Washington. The beauty of fading Corbin is that as poorly as he's likely to pitch, the Nationals aren't going to lift him from the game early. He's quite simply an innings eater at this stage of his career with a FIP approaching six and a WHIP nearing two already this season. Jordan Hicks continues to get run out as a starter for the Giants and so far, so good. Hicks had a terrific spring and has recorded a sub-2.00 FIP and 0.75 WHIP in 12 regular season innings. We'll lay the extra run in this spot. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-07-24 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 113-105 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. New Orleans is reeling right now having lost four straight games both SU and ATS. I look for the Pelicans to give the Suns all they can handle on Sunday, however. Note that New Orleans is trending in the right direction offensively having knocked down 42 or more field goals in two of its last three games. It has also held five straight and 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Suns while coming off three straight victories both SU and ATS have been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. It's not as if they're blowing the doors off the opposition. Note that the Pelicans are 19-11 ATS in their last 30 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including an 8-3 ATS record in that situation this season. The Suns are 18-34 ATS in their last 52 contests following a double-digit home win including a 4-8 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
04-07-24 | Padres v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
N.L. West Game of the Month. My selection is on San Francisco -1.5 runs over San Diego at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Padres starter Matt Waldron's stay at the big league level could prove to be short-lived but we want to fade him while we can as he makes his second start of the campaign in San Francisco on Sunday. Waldron actually looked pretty good in the Spring, earning a role in the starting rotation. His first regular season outing didn't go so well as he allowed nine hits and four earned runs in just four innings of work. The Giants will get their second look at the knuckle-baller after facing him in late September last year. Waldron recorded a 5.46 FIP in 41 1/3 big league innings last season. San Francisco will hand the ball to Logan Webb as he looks to shake off a rough outing in Los Angeles earlier this week. I'm not overly concerned by that shaky performance as Webb was terrific in his regular season debut (against these same Padres). The Giants ace owns a career 2.56 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 10 starts against San Diego. Take San Francisco -1.5 runs (10*). | |||||||
04-06-24 | NC State v. Purdue -9 | 50-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over N.C. State at 6:05 pm et on Saturday. Purdue was involved in a nail-biter against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. I don't expect Saturday's Final Four clash with N.C. State to be as close. All credit to the Wolfpack for getting here, they've been on an incredible run going back to to the ACC Tournament. I don't like the spot here, however. Note that N.C. State checks in off a 12-point victory over Duke in the Elite Eight. The Wolfpack are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit win over a conference opponent including 1-2 ATS in that situation this season. N.C. State is also 4-11 ATS in its last 15 contests after covering the spread in consecutive games, as is the case here, including a 3-5 ATS mark in that spot this season. Purdue is a long-term 29-18 ATS in its last 47 NCAA Tournament games including a perfect 4-0 ATS record this year. It almost seems as if opponents have been overlooking N.C. State for weeks now. With the nearly week-long build-up to this contest, I don't expect Purdue to suffer the same fate. Take Purdue (8*). | |||||||
04-04-24 | White Sox v. Royals -1.5 | 1-10 | Win | 126 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas City -1.5 runs over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Royals let the Orioles off the hook last night, blowing a late 3-0 lead in a 4-3 defeat. I don't expect them to suffer the same fate as they return home to host the White Sox on Thursday. Chicago is coming off a rain-out against the Braves yesterday. Mike Soroka is expected to get the start for the Sox. He was roughed up early in his season debut before settling down. So far so good on the injury front for the right-hander. I do think expectations should be tempered as he is by no means a number two starter for most teams in baseball. Seth Lugo is in his sweet spot as a home favorite, noting his teams have gone 16-5 (+7.6 net games) in his last 21 starts in that role. The White Sox check in a woeful 58-81 (-30.8 net games) in their last 139 contests following a victory, as is the case here. Take Kansas City -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-04-24 | Kings v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Sacramento at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Knicks after suffering a 109-99 setback in Miami two nights ago. New York couldn't get anything going offensively in that loss. Off three straight losses, the Knicks will catch a Kings squad that is probably feeling pretty good about itself following victories over the Jazz and Clippers. That latter win came by 14 points against Los Angeles. Note that Sacramento is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games following a win by double-digits over a division opponent including a 1-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Kings are also 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests after allowing 95 points or less in their previous game including a 1-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games as a home favorite of six points or less including a 7-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. They're also 16-10 ATS in their last 26 contests following a double-digit road loss including a 6-2 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
04-03-24 | Cavs v. Suns -5.5 | 101-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Cleveland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers are coming off a win in Utah last night but haven't strung together consecutive ATS victories since March 11th and 13th. They'll be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat as they challenge a rested Suns squad in Phoenix on Wednesday. Note that the Suns have 6-3 ATS over their last nine games despite facing a pretty tough recent schedule. This homestand will only get tougher with matchups against the Timberwolves, Pelicans and Clippers on deck. Look for Phoenix to make the most of this winnable matchup. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
04-03-24 | Raptors +15.5 v. Wolves | 85-133 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors haven't shown much life lately and find themselves in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday in Minnesota. With that being said, the Timberwolves are 1-2-1 ATS in their last four contests and will be hard-pressed to cover a spread this lofty given the way they're playing right now. Note that Minnesota has gotten off 82 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games and 88 or fewer in seven straight. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time it knocked down more than 42 field goals. The Raptors are actually trending in the right direction offensively after connecting on 47 and 43 field goals in their last two contests. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
04-02-24 | Rockies v. Cubs -1.5 | 2-12 | Win | 115 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago -1.5 runs over Colorado at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. Kyle Freeland remains in the Rockies rotation for another year and if his season debut was any indication, it's likely to be another long one for the veteran left-hander. Freeland has had previous success in two career starts at Wrigley Field. Those came prior to 2019 though. We can expect the Cubs bats to tee off on the soft-tossing southpaw on Tuesday. Javier Assad is a typical back-of-the-rotation starter but not a bad one by any means. He'll give Chicago 5-6 effective innings against a stuttering Rockies offense on Tuesday. I'm not interested in paying near -200 prices this early in the season but will lay the extra run for a plus-money return with the Cubbies here. Take Chicago -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
04-02-24 | Knicks +3 v. Heat | 99-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks enter this contest off consecutive losses with the most recent coming in demoralizing last-second fashion at home against the Thunder on Sunday. I look for them to bounce back on Tuesday as they head to Miami to take on a Heat team that is 'fat and happy' off consecutive victories. I don't trust the Heat in a home favorite role and note that they're just 14-22 ATS here in South Beach this season. For the Knicks, this is a key 'right the ship' game before returning home to face the Kings followed by a difficult four-game road trip. New York checks in 32-25 ATS in its last 57 contests as a road underdog of six points or less including a 9-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
04-02-24 | Bucks v. Wizards +13.5 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks are 18-20 on the road this season but they're laying double-digits in Washington on Tuesday. Off a win and cover in Atlanta on Saturday, I'll fade Milwaukee here. The Bucks have been playing with a rather small margin for error on their current three-game road trip, getting off just 78 and 82 field goal attempts in the first two contests. On the flip side, they've allowed three straight opponents to get off more than 90 field goal attempts. That's not a recipe for success from a pointspread perspective when you're laying as many points as they are here. The Wizards have lost three games in a row following a three-game winning streak. Note that they've held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
04-01-24 | Braves -1.5 v. White Sox | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta -1.5 runs over Chicago at 2:10 pm et on Monday. This is a smash spot for the Braves off Sunday's loss in Philadelphia. Atlanta sends Charlie Morton to the mound against Chris Flexen of the White Sox. Morton had a terrific Spring posting a sub-3.00 ERA after turning back the clock to the tune of a 3.64 ERA in 2023. Flexen will be pitching for his fourth big league club after stints with the Mets, Mariners and Rockies. Things haven't gone particularly well for the right-hander in any of his previous stops. For his career he owns a 4.97 FIP and 1.49 WHIP in just shy of 500 innings of work. Take Atlanta -1.5 runs (8*). | |||||||
03-31-24 | Tennessee v. Purdue -3.5 | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Tennessee at 2:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm of the belief that there is a substantial gap between the best team remaining in the NCAA Tournament, that being Connecticut, and the rest of the field. With that said, I also feel there's a significant gap between the top two teams remaining, and I include Purdue in that group, and the rest of the field. Purdue is playing its best basketball of the season right now and I don't think Tennessee will have enough in its arsenal to keep pace on Sunday afternoon. The Boilermakers rank third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. The Volunteers check in 28th in that same category. Of course, even if the Boilers aren't shooting the lights out, they're consistently getting to the free throw line. Tennessee got just enough offensive production to outlast a hot-and-cold shooting Creighton squad last time out. I simply feel Purdue is a different animal and will ultimately will its way to victory on Sunday. Take Purdue (8*). | |||||||
03-30-24 | Clemson +3 v. Alabama | Top | 82-89 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Clemson plus the points over Alabama at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Clemson will try to accomplish what another ACC squad was unable to do two nights ago and that's topple Alabama on its way to a Final Four appearance on Saturday night. The ACC has exceeded expectations in this tournament, even if the Tar Heels did fall short against the Crimson Tide on Thursday. Clemson enters riding a red hot 21-11 ATS tear in an underdog role including a 9-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Note that Alabama falls into a rather poor situation here as it has gone 17-28 ATS in its last 45 contests after scoring 85 points or more in its previous game, as is the case here, including an 11-11 ATS record in that situation this season. Clemson has climbed all the way inside KenPom's top-20 rankings nationally, closing the gap on 14th-ranked Alabama as this tournament has gone on. Clearly the Tigers were underrated entering this tournament but they come off their best offensive showing (29-of-59 shooting against Arizona) and have held four straight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals (Alabama has held just one of its last six foes to fewer than 29). Take Clemson (10*). | |||||||
03-29-24 | NC State v. Marquette -6.5 | 67-58 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marquette minus the points over N.C. State at 7:05 pm et on Friday. N.C. State is on an incredible run right now but has certainly had some good fortune along the way. The Wolfpack are the lowest ranked team remaining in the country according to KenPom's metrics and it's not particularly close (they rank 53rd - the next closest team is Clemson at 23rd). Marquette has quietly delivered the cash in 16 of its last 24 games. Also of note, the Golden Eagles have seen the straight-up winner go 23-2 ATS in their last 25 contests. I like their chances of keeping that run going on Friday. N.C. State is a long-term 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following seven straight wins, as is the case here. The pace of this game projects to be played right in Marquette's wheelhouse as it has gone 27-9 ATS in its last 36 games with the total set in the 150's including a 13-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Marquette (8*). | |||||||
03-28-24 | San Diego State v. Connecticut -10.5 | Top | 52-82 | Win | 100 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over San Diego State at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. This is of course a rematch of last year's championship game that Connecticut won in a rout, 76-59. I don't expect this game to be any closer - in fact, I think the Huskies hold an even greater advantage in this year's matchup. San Diego State checks in off wins over UAB and Yale with the latter victory coming in blowout fashion. Keep in mind, the Aztecs haven't covered the spread in consecutive games since February 13th and 16th. Connecticut on the other hand is on an ATS tear, grabbing the cash in three straight and 11 of its last 13 games. The Huskies rank inside the country's top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Note that San Diego State is just 8-10 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Aztecs are also just 26-29 ATS in their last 55 contests following consecutive wins including a 4-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, UConn is 61-39 ATS in its last 100 games as a favorite including 24-11 ATS this season. The Huskies are quite simply built for postseason basketball, riding a long-term 36-23 ATS run in NCAA Tournament action including an 8-1 ATS mark in their last nine contests in the Big Dance. Take Connecticut (10*). | |||||||
03-27-24 | Clippers -5.5 v. 76ers | 108-107 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. What's wrong with the Clippers? That question has come up countless times after they went 0-2 on their most recent homestand, including a blowout loss against the same 76ers that they'll face on Wednesday. After a red hot run that lasted from early December until early February, the wheels have come off for Los Angeles as it has dropped the cash in 16 of its last 22 games. I do like the revenge spot on Wednesday, however, noting that the Clippers are 26-21 ATS in their last 47 games following an upset loss, as is the case here, including a 7-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Better still, they're 6-1 ATS in their last seven contests following consecutive home defeats including a 2-0 ATS record in that spot this season. Philadelphia checks in 11-13 ATS in its last 24 games as a home underdog including a 2-5 ATS record in that role this season. The 76ers will be playing on just one day of rest following a four-game western road trip and looking ahead to playing five of their next six games away from home as well. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
03-26-24 | Ducks v. Seattle Kraken -1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 130 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Seattle -1.5 goals over Anaheim at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Kraken exceeded expectations last season but haven't come close to doing so here in 23-24 as they'll miss the playoffs. I do expect them to show some pride on Tuesday as they look to snap their eight-game losing streak and bounce back from an ugly 5-1 home loss at the hands of the Canadiens on Sunday. They're well-positioned to do just that against a Ducks squad that has been outscored by an average margin of 1.2 goals per game on the road this season. Note that Anaheim is 13-42 (-21.8 net games) in its last 55 games when seeking revenge for a one-goal loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 3-15 (-9.6 net games) mark in that situation this season. Seattle hasn't produced many victories lately but 11 of its last 14 wins have come by two goals or more. The price is right to back the Kraken on the puck-line on Tuesday. Take Seattle -1.5 goals (8*). | |||||||
03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Grand Canyon plus the points over Alabama at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. I think most are still sleeping on Grand Canyon, even after its upset win over St. Mary's in the opening round of this tournament. The Antelopes aren't some upstart - they actually check in 50th in the country according to KenPom's overall rankings. They do everything reasonably well and play at a fast enough pace to not get overwhelmed by Alabama in this particular matchup. The Crimson Tide prevailed by double-digits against Charleston in the opening round. They continue to thrive offensively but can be had defensively, ranking just 117th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. Note that Grand Canyon is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 games as an underdog including a 3-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. Alabama did cover the spread in its tournament opener but remains just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 NCAA Tournament contests including a 2-3 ATS record over the last three seasons. Take Grand Canyon (10*). | |||||||
03-23-24 | Washington State v. Iowa State -6 | 56-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Washington State at 6:10 pm et on Saturday. Washington State pulled off a minor upset win over Drake in the opening round but I look for the Cougars run to end against Iowa State on Saturday. Note that Washington State has only faced the 84th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Iowa State on the other hand has gone up against the 45th toughest slate of opponents and checks in ranked as the sixth ranked team in the country according to KenPom's overall rankings. The Cougars are just 21-28 ATS in their last 49 contests following an ATS win including an 8-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Cyclones are quite simply one of the best bets in the country this season having gone 24-10 ATS to date and are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 contests after scoring 80 points or more in their previous game including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Iowa State (8*). | |||||||
03-22-24 | Grand Canyon +5.5 v. St. Mary's | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Grand Canyon plus the points over St. Mary's at 10:05 pm et on Friday. As is often the case, I wonder whether St. Mary's used up everything it had in the tank in climbing the WCC mountain to defeat Gonzaga in the tournament championship game last weekend. Grand Canyon got a taste of NCAA Tournament action last year, falling by 12 points in the first round against aforementioned Gonzaga. It enters this tournament ranked 53rd in the country this season according to KenPom. Note that St. Mary's is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 NCAA Tournament games and 11-14 ATS in its last 25 contests following consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon is 11-7 ATS in its last 18 games as an underdog including a 2-0 ATS mark this season. Take Grand Canyon (8*). | |||||||
03-22-24 | 76ers +8 v. Lakers | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The 76ers offense has struggled but I think they can be brought along for the ride against the Lakers on Friday. Los Angeles has allowed six straight and 27 of its last 28 opponents to connect on more than 40 field goals. In fact, the Lakers have allowed eight of their last nine opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. On the flip side, Los Angeles knocked down 52 field goals in its most recent game against Atlanta on Monday. Note that the Lakers are just 1-4 straight-up following a game in which they made good on 50 or more field goals this season. Philadelphia checks in 27-23 ATS in its last 50 games following a road loss including a 9-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Los Angeles is 15-17 ATS in its last 32 contests following a double-digit home victory including a 4-6 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
03-22-24 | Yale +13 v. Auburn | 78-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Auburn at 4:15 pm et on Friday. Auburn is a trendy pick to win it all but I expect it to get a scare against Ivy League opponent Yale on Friday afternoon. The Tigers are less than week removed from winning the SEC Tournament in blowout fashion against Florida. Meanwhile, Yale was nearly upset in the Ivy League Final against Brown, prevailing by a single point but never sniffing out an ATS cover. The Bulldogs are no pushovers. They've faced the 128th most difficult schedule in the country this season - not bad by Ivy League standards - and have hung tough sitting inside the top-100 both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. What I really like about Yale in this particular matchup is their ability to be efficient on offense while also limiting their opponents' possessions. The Bulldogs rank 329th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. They've been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, connecting on 25 or more field goals in 25 of 31 games. Note that Yale is a long-term 137-120 ATS as an underdog including a 13-11 ATS mark over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Auburn is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games when seeded number four or higher in the NCAA Tournament, as is the case here. Take Yale (8*). | |||||||
03-22-24 | UAB +7 v. San Diego State | Top | 65-69 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on UAB plus the points over San Diego State at 1:45 pm et on Friday. I don't think UAB is getting enough respect after beating three quality opponents in three days on its way to an AAC Tournament title last week. The Blazers have quietly put together a 20-12 ATS record in lined games this season. While few were paying attention back in November, they opened the campaign with an extremely tough three-game slate, at home against Bradley followed by neutral site contests against Clemson and Maryland. UAB went 2-1 ATS in those three contests with the lone defeat coming by two points against Bradley. Going back to January 14th the Blazers have rattled off an incredible 15 ATS victories in 19 games. San Diego State certainly took the Mountain West Conference Tournament seriously, reaching the final against New Mexico (it lost that game 68-61). I see this as a tough opening round draw for the Aztecs as the Blazers figure to push the pace and make them uncomfortable. UAB is efficient enough to back it up, ranking inside the country's top-60 in adjusted offensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). A big reason why San Diego State has only managed to go 13-19 ATS this season is that it is good enough to be favored in most contests but doesn't generate enough scoring opportunities to cover those spreads. The Aztecs rank 266th in the country in adjusted tempo. UAB has connected on 30 or more field goals in five of its last eight games while San Diego State has reached that number just once since the end of January and six times all season. The Blazers have been a solid positive momentum play in recent years going 28-26 ATS in their last 54 games following an ATS win including a 13-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, San Diego State is just 22-27 ATS in its last 49 contests following an ATS loss including a 7-11 ATS record in that spot this season. Take UAB (10*). | |||||||
03-21-24 | Hawks +10 v. Suns | 115-128 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Phoenix at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. The Suns are coming off a win and cover last night at home against the 76ers but I expect them to have a tougher time covering the lofty pointspread against a rested Hawks squad on Thursday. The injuries are certainly piling up for Atlanta with Jalen Johnson the latest to go down. With that being said, the Suns have consistently been bringing the opposition along for the ride so to speak, regardless the competition level, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in 26 of their last 30 games. They've allowed their foes to knock down at least 40 field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Phoenix has hoisted up 90 or fewer field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. While Atlanta hasn't exactly been the picture of consistency at either end of the floor, it does check in having limited eight of its last 12 opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Hawks are finding their scoring opportunities, getting off more than 90 field goal attempts in three of their last five contests and connecting on 41 or more field goals in three straight games. Despite last night's victory, Phoenix is still just 20-29 ATS in its last 49 games as a home favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 2-6 ATS mark in that situation this season. Worse still, the Suns are 14-35 ATS in their last 49 contests following a double-digit home win including a 1-8 ATS showing in that spot this season. While there are numerous fade signs flashing when it comes to the Hawks, they have reeled off four straight wins in this particular series, both SU and ATS including three in outright underdog fashion. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
03-21-24 | Colorado State +2.5 v. Texas | 44-56 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado State plus the points over Texas at 6:50 pm et on Thursday. Texas has had a real problem with stepping up in big games away from home this season and has been a bad bet overall, going 12-20 ATS. Noting that the Longhorns are 34-41 ATS in their last 75 games as a favorite including a 7-14 ATS mark in that situation this season, I can't help but feel the wrong team is laying points in this particular matchup. Colorado State has been a solid positive momentum play in recent years, going 33-29 ATS when coming off a victory over the last three seasons including a 14-9 ATS record in that spot this season. Remember, the Rams defeated a pair of teams currently ranked higher than Texas according to KenPom in Creighton and Colorado earlier in the campaign. Take Colorado State (8*). | |||||||
03-21-24 | Duquesne +10.5 v. BYU | 71-67 | Win | 100 | 16 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Duquesne plus the points over BYU at 12:40 pm et on Thursday. I like the Dukes chances of hanging tough on Thursday as they look to build on the positive momentum gained from their incredible run to an Atlantic-10 Tournament title last week. BYU will only go as far as its three-point shooting takes it and this is a tough matchup in that regard. Duquesne holds the opposition to an average of just seven made threes per game including only six per contest away from home. The Dukes rank inside the top-30 in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. They play a chaotic brand of defense that produces turnovers. Turnovers lead to extra offensive possessions and against a BYU defense that ranks just 50th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, I look for the Dukes to get theirs. Take Duquesne (8*). | |||||||
03-19-24 | Cal-Irvine +7.5 v. Utah | Top | 75-84 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Week. My selection is on Cal-Irvine plus the points over Utah at 11 pm et on Tuesday. Utah probably feels like it deserved a better fate but the wins and losses simply didn't add up for the Utes to reach the NCAA Tournament. Here they are in the NIT and while Cal-Irvine won't catch a lot of attention by name recognition only, the Anteaters have the pedigree and the personnel to give Utah all it can handle on Tuesday night. Cal-Irvine enters the NIT on an offensive tear. The Anteaters have knocked down 30, 30, 31, 31, 28 and 32 field goals over their last six contests. That's to go along with a defense that ranks 40th in the country (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric) - one spot above tonight's opponent, Utah. The Utes have quite simply been an unreliable bet since New Year's Eve, going 8-13 ATS over their last 21 games. While the Anteaters failed to deliver the cash in their most recent game against NCAA Tournament-bound Long Beach State, they've never lost more than two games in a row ATS this season and that happened only three times previously. In fact, the Anteaters are 23-16 ATS in their last 39 games following an ATS loss including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah, meanwhile, has gone 57-69 ATS in its last 126 tournament games (in-season or postseason) including a 4-8 ATS record over the last three seasons. I simply feel the Utes are laying too many points on Tuesday. Take Cal-Irvine (10*). | |||||||
03-18-24 | Wolves v. Jazz +7.5 | Top | 114-104 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Timberwolves easily brushed aside the Jazz in the first half of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday. I expect Utah to provide a lot more resistance in Monday's rematch. Note that the T'Wolves have now won back-to-back road games. They're just 29-43 ATS in their last 72 contests following consecutive road wins including a 6-9 ATS record in that situation over the last three seasons. Minnesota is also just 3-9 ATS this season after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less. Meanwhile, Utah is 25-11 ATS in its last 36 games as a home underdog including a 13-7 ATS mark this season. Additionally, the Jazz are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games played with triple-revenge, as is the case here. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
03-17-24 | Hawks +9.5 v. Clippers | 110-93 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Atlanta has lost three games in a row both SU and ATS including the first two games of its current road trip. I look for the Hawks to put up a fight on Sunday in Los Angeles, however. The Clippers will be hard-pressed to cover spreads like this when they've gotten off 85 or fewer field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. In stark contrast, the Hawks have hoisted up 87 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. The Clips aren't exactly locked-in defensively right now having allowed four straight opponents knock down more than 40 field goals. Note that the road team has covered the spread in four straight meetings in this series. The underdog has gone 7-5 ATS in the last 12 matchups. Finally, we'll note that Los Angeles is 48-57 ATS in its last 105 contests following a loss including a 10-13 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
03-17-24 | Nuggets v. Mavs +2.5 | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Denver at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade the Nuggets on Sunday as they come in feeling good about themselves off consecutive wins to open their current road trip. Note that Denver is just 24-27 ATS in its last 51 games as a road favorite of six points or less including an 8-10 ATS mark int hat situation this season. Meanwhile, Dallas checks in off a loss in Oklahoma City on Thursday and is 36-27 ATS in its last 63 contests following a road loss including a 7-6 ATS record in that spot this season. The Mavs are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for consecutive double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
03-17-24 | Duquesne +2 v. VCU | Top | 57-51 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My selection is on Duquesne plus the points over VCU at 1 pm et on Sunday. We'll grab all the points we can get with Duquesne on Sunday as I think the Dukes might just be the better team in this matchup. It's not as if VCU is having all that memorable of a campaign. The Rams have gone 22-12 and their current three-game winning streak is their longest since a four-gamer from February 3rd to 16th. Duquesne checks in 23-11 on the season and riding a seven-game winning streak. The Dukes have turned incredibly stingy at the defensive end of the floor, rising all the way to 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). They've won consecutive matchups with VCU including a double-digit road win just 12 days ago. The Rams have the pedigree but the Dukes have the better team in my opinion. Take Duquesne (8*). | |||||||
03-16-24 | NC State v. North Carolina -9 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over N.C. State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. N.C. State has gone on an incredible run to keep its NCAA Tournament hopes alive this week in D.C. but I expect its run to end here. There's obviously no love lost between these in-state rivals. The last meeting between the Wolfpack and Tar Heels was decided by only nine points but North Carolina was the better team by perhaps an even wider margin as it absolutely dominated the second half. Here, the Tar Heels come off a scare against Pittsburgh yesterday as they once again needed a big second half to pull away for a seven-point win. I expect a sharper performance from North Carolina here and it catches N.C. State off a late rally that saw it force overtime before prevailing against Virginia last night. Now the Wolfpack will play their fifth game in as many days and while they're hungry to earn that NCAA Tourney berth, I expect talent to win out on this occasion. North Carolina hasn't lost a game since February 13th at Syracuse and while it will be playing its third game in three days, the first of those contests was a glorified scrimmage in a 92-67 rout of Florida State on Thursday. Take North Carolina (10*). | |||||||
03-16-24 | Mississippi State v. Auburn -8 | 66-73 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Mississippi State at 1 pm et on Saturday. I would expect Auburn to lay waste to Mississippi State on Saturday as the Tigers come off a glorified scrimmage against an overmatched South Carolina squad yesterday. The Bulldogs kept their Cinderella SEC Tournament run going with a rout of heavily-favored Tennessee. The Vols clearly got caught looking past Mississippi State but I don't anticipate fourth-ranked (according to KenPom's overall rankings) Auburn to suffer a similar fate on Saturday. The Tigers do everything well, ranked in the top-10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency while also checking in 57th in adjusted tempo (all according to KenPom). Mississippi State, while respectable in all departments, pales in comparison and sits 27th in KenPom's overall rankings. Auburn learned its lesson in its first regular season meeting with Mississippi State, suffering a six-point road defeat before exacting its revenge in a 15-point victory at home on March 2nd. Playing three games in as many days catches up with the Bulldogs here. Take Auburn (8*). | |||||||
03-15-24 | NC State v. Virginia -3.5 | 73-65 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over N.C. State at 9:30 pm et on Friday. Off its big upset win over Duke yesterday, we'll fade N.C. State on Friday as it faces a much different opponent in Virginia. The Cavaliers went through a tough stretch this season but have come out of it ok and I think this is a favorable matchup for them stylistically on Friday night. The low posted total tells us all we need to know as Virginia should be able to dictate the tempo, checking in ranked as the slowest-paced team in the entire country according to KenPom's adjusted tempo metric. N.C. State emptied the tank in yesterday's upset victory over Duke. The Wolfpack are a middling bunch in my opinion and I expect them to fall short here. Take Virginia (8*). | |||||||
03-15-24 | Clippers v. Pelicans -6 | 104-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans got schooled by an injury-depleted Cavaliers squad, on their home floor no less, two nights ago but I look for them to bounce back as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday. Los Angeles took care of business in Chicago last night, winning virtually wire-to-wire over the Bulls to snap a brief two-game skid. Interestingly, they're just 2-4 ATS over their last six games with both of those wins coming against Chicago. The Pelicans are just one game removed from a four-game winning streak and they're one of the league's few healthy teams at this late stage of the regular season. Los Angeles is just 23-29 ATS in its last 52 games against Southwest Division opponents including a 7-8 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 20-12 ATS in its last 32 games following an upset loss including an 8-5 ATS record in that situation this season. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
03-14-24 | Mavs v. Thunder -9.5 | Top | 119-126 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Dallas at 10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Mavericks here as they hit the road in the second of back-to-backs off a double-digit home win over the Warriors last night and on the heels of four straight victories. While Golden State wasn't able to take advantage last night, Dallas does continue to give up too many scoring opportunities on a nightly basis. The Mavs have allowed five of their last eight opponents to get off at least 92 field goal attempts. Oklahoma City figures to take advantage having knocked down 42 or more field goals in four straight and 15 of its last 17 games. The runway is cleared for takeoff for the Thunder here as they're rested having not played a back-to-back since March 3rd and 4th and with this being the finale of a four-game homestand. Note that Dallas is just 33-34 ATS in its last 67 games as a road underdog including a 10-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 32-18 ATS in its last 50 contests as a home favorite including an 18-9 ATS record this season. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
03-14-24 | TCU v. Houston -10 | 45-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over TCU at 3 pm et on Thursday. TCU delivered a convincing win over Oklahoma to reach the second round of the Big 12 Tournament. I expected the Horned Frogs run to end there, however, as they draw top-seeded Houston on Thursday. While TCU does own a respectable 21-11 record this season it didn't exactly face the most difficult non-conference slate and only proved to be a middling squad in conference play. Of note, the Horned Frogs did upset the Cougars in their lone regular season matchup back in January. That loss marked Houston's second in a row but it only dropped one more game the rest of the way. The Cougars enter this rematch in excellent form off a 76-46 rout of Kansas last Saturday. That was a revenge game as well after Houston dropped a 13-point decision in Lawrence one month prior. Expect a similar knockout blow from the Cougars here as they successfully avenge that earlier loss to the Horned Frogs. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
03-14-24 | Fresno State v. Utah State -11.5 | 75-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Fresno State at 3 pm et on Thursday. Utah State had to be happy about sitting idle on the opening day of the Mountain West Conference Tournament, giving it an extra day of rest following last Saturday's taxing two-point win over New Mexico that earned it top spot in the conference. The Aggies caught a bit of a break with Fresno State staging an upset win over Wyoming yesterday. That 'revenge' victory booked the Bulldogs this date with the conference's top-seed and I expect Fresno State's tournament run to be short-lived. Keep in mind, the Bulldogs don't do anything particularly well, ranking 225th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 235th in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (both according to KenPom). Utah State figures to overwhelm with its 38th ranked offense. The Aggies aren't likely to overlook the Bulldogs, however, not after Fresno State gave them all they could handle in a 77-73 decision in their most recent meeting. Take Utah State (8*). | |||||||
03-13-24 | Air Force v. New Mexico -14.5 | 56-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico minus the points over Air Force at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Lobos stumbled down the stretch, losing three of their last four games and that means they're in play on the opening day of the Mountain West Conference Tournament on Wednesday. I expect them to take their frustrations out on Air Force as they look to avenge a stunning 78-77 home loss against the Falcons on February 24th. Air Force knocked down 31-of-60 field goal attempts in that contest - a performance it is unlikely to repeat here. Note that the Falcons have connected on 24 or fewer field goals in seven of their last 10 games. In fact, they've gotten off 53 or fewer field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. That's in stark contrast to the Lobos, who are one of the fastest, most efficient offensive teams in the country. New Mexico has made good on 28, 28, 30 and 34 field goals over its last four contests. The Lobos rank top-five in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom this season. Air Force is 6-10 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS win but SU loss, as is the case here, including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. Meanwhile, New Mexico is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 contests after giving up 85 points or more in its previous game, including a 3-0 ATS record in that situation this season. Take New Mexico (8*). | |||||||
03-13-24 | UCF +6 v. BYU | 73-87 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCF plus the points over BYU at 12:30 pm et on Wednesday. I like the fact that the Knights were able to get a game under their belts on this floor yesterday, breezing past Oklahoma State by a score of 77-62. UCF didn't shoot particularly well as a whole in that game but did connect on 9-of-18 three-point attempts. The Knights sport the 10th ranked defense in the country (in terms of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric) this season and that gives them a puncher's chance against this explosive BYU offense. Also note that UCF is comfortable playing at a fast pace, which is obviously the Cougars preferred tempo. While BYU did take both regular season meetings, both of those contests went right down to the wire. Note that UCF is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games as a neutral court underdog of six points or less including a 2-0 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, BYU is 19-23 ATS in its last 42 contests as a neutral court favorite of six points or less. The Cougars are also just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games following a home win over a conference foe, as is the case here, including a 2-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take UCF (8*). | |||||||
03-12-24 | Bucks v. Kings +2.5 | Top | 94-129 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bucks picked up a much-needed win over the Clippers on Sunday, snapping their brief two-game losing streak to open their current four-game road trip. I look for them to stumble on Tuesday, however, as they head to Sacramento to face the revenge-minded Kings. Sacramento has undoubtedly had this rematch circled on its calendar after dropping a heart-breaking 143-142 decision in Milwaukee on January 14th. The Kings enter this contest off a home loss against the Rockets which marked their second straight ATS defeat. Note that Sacramento is still 17-12 on its home floor this season. The Kings continue to do an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding an incredible 16 of their last 19 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and three of their last four to 84 or fewer. Despite the poor showing against Houston last time out, Sacramento has still knocked down 52 or more field goals in two of its last three contests. Milwaukee on the other hand has allowed all three opponents on its current trip to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. In fact, the Clippers hoisted up 104 field goal attempts against the Bucks on Sunday. Note that Milwaukee is a long-term 73-80 ATS when coming off a win including an 18-22 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Kings are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 contests following an upset loss at home including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Better still, they're 34-12 ATS in their last 46 games following consecutive ATS losses including 9-1 ATS this season. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
03-12-24 | New Hampshire v. Vermont -13.5 | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
America East Game of the Year. My selection is on Vermont minus the points over New Hampshire at 5 pm et on Tuesday. Vermont escaped with a four-point win the last time these two teams squared off in New Hampshire just last week, failing to sniff out a cover as a nine-point favorite. I don't expect the Catamounts to face nearly as much resistance in this quick rematch in America East Tournament semi-final action on Tuesday. Note that New Hampshire is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games following a double-digit victory in-conference, as is the case here, including an 0-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Wildcats are also just 6-8 ATS in their last 14 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, Vermont is 24-19 ATS in its last 43 contests following consecutive ATS losses including a 12-7 ATS mark in that spot over the last three seasons. Better still, the Catamounts are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when coming off consecutive straight-up wins but ATS defeats, which is the situation here. Take Vermont (10*). | |||||||
03-11-24 | Santa Clara v. St. Mary's -9.5 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
West Coast Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over Santa Clara at 9 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's nearly let Santa Clara off the hook the last time these two teams met in late January. In that game, the Gaels built a seemingly insurmountable 22-point halftime lead before escaping with an 82-77 home victory. Keep in mind, the first matchup this season was no contest as St. Mary's rolled to a 73-49 road win. The Broncos will have the Gaels full attention for this WCC Tournament semi-final matchup on Monday. The last time we saw St. Mary's it fell by a 70-57 score in its regular season finale against Gonzaga. It has had over a week to chew on that double-digit defeat and as a result I expect to see a bit of a sling-shot effect from the Gaels on Monday. While St. Mary's does play at an extremely slow pace (it ranks 358th out of 362 Division I teams in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom), it is also very efficient, ranking inside the nation's top-50 in adjusted offensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). For its part, Santa Clara ranks 114th in the same category. The Broncos play fast but I think it works against them in this semi-final showdown. Take St. Mary's (10*). | |||||||
03-11-24 | Suns v. Cavs +6.5 | 117-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Cavs go from being seven-point favorites last night against the Nets to just shy of seven-point underdogs on Monday as they host the Suns in the second of a back-to-back situation. Phoenix dropped a 10-point decision at home against the Celtics on Saturday. While the Suns are expected to welcome Devin Booker back for Monday's game, I'm still not high on their offense noting they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 12 straight games. On the flip side, Phoenix has been playing far too loose defensively, allowing an incredible 17 straight and 23 of its last 25 opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts with each of its last six foes getting off at least 94 (one game was aided by overtime against Denver). Cleveland is missing a number of key contributors right now but off last night's embarrassing beatdown at home against Brooklyn I do expect a positive response on Monday. Note that the Cavaliers have held six straight and 16 of their last 19 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Their offense has struggled without Donovan Mitchell but again there should be no shortage of scoring opportunities based on tonight's opponent. The Suns check in a long-term 53-53 ATS when laying between 3.5 and 9.5 points, as is the case here at the time of writing, but just 12-19 ATS in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss by 15 points or more including a 2-1 ATS mark in that spot this season. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
03-11-24 | Montana State v. Weber State -6 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Weber State minus the points over Montana State at 7:30 pm et on Monday. The door is wide open for the likes of Weber State and Montana after Sacramento State and Idaho State pulled off stunning upsets in Big Sky Tournament action over the weekend. I like Weber State in particular as it draws a quick revenge matchup against Montana State on Monday. Just one week ago, Montana State delivered a 76-64 win over Weber State as it quite simply shot the lights out on its home floor (29 made field goals including 13 from three-point range on just 55 field goal attempts). Keep in mind, earlier in the season the Wildcats rolled to an 86-64 win over the Bobcats. That victory over Weber State last week marked just a third win over its last nine contests for Montana State. Meanwhile, the Wildcats suffered just their second defeat in their last 10 games. KenPom has Weber State ranked a respectable 144th in the country while Montana State checks in 241st (out of 362 Division I teams). The Bobcats play at a reasonably fast pace but aren't generally all that efficient offensively - their last game notwithstanding - and I think that will play into this one getting away from them in short order. Weber State appeared in nine postseason tournaments in 11 years from 06-07 to 16-17 including three NCAA Tournaments but has gone through a dry spell since. With two of the Wildcats biggest roadblocks going down, the opportunity presents itself to go dancing this year and I look for them to take a step in that direction on Monday. Take Weber State (10*). | |||||||
03-10-24 | 76ers +5.5 v. Knicks | 79-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New York at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks are coming off a rout of the Magic on Friday while the 76ers had their comeback fall just short in a loss to the Pelicans. I look for Philadelphia to bounce back on Sunday as it hits the road to face New York. Note that the 76ers have held seven of their last nine opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, they've limited eight of their last nine opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite the win on Friday, New York has knocked down 42 or fewer field goals in 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Knicks have been inconsistent defensively, allowing two of its last four foes to connect on exactly 44 field goals. The 76ers are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games played with double-revenge, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Knicks are just 12-25 ATS in their alst 37 games played at home with the total set between 210 and 219.5 points including an 0-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
03-10-24 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -4.5 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State minus the points over Arkansas State at 6 pm et on Sunday. Arkansas State just missed my card on Sunday and it was a mistake leaving the Red Wolves off as they rolled to a 27-point rout of Louisiana-Lafayette to advance to the semi-final round of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot on Sunday, however, as the Red Wolves are likely to be overmatched by the Mountaineers. Appalachian State needed overtime to get past Georgia Southern yesterday. The Mountaineers got a little ahead of themselves in that game thinking the Eagles were going to roll over down by double-digits at halftime. That wasn't the case and Appalachian State needed a late push in overtime to secure the victory. After that scare, I expect the Mountaineers to turn in a complete effort on Sunday. They're a much better defensive team than they showed in the second half of yesterday's game, checking in ranked 29th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Arkansas State does boast the 67th ranked offense in the country (according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rankings) but I question whether it used up everything it had in the tank yesterday, knocking down 34-of-68 field goal attempts in the victory over Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin' Cajuns didn't pose any sort of offensive threat in that contest, notably making good on just 3-of-15 three-point attempts. Appalachian State elected not to involve the three-point game yesterday, attempting just 10 shots from beyond the arc. Keep in mind, the Mountaineers made good on 8-of-17 three-point attempts in an 80-57 rout of the Red Wolves just last week. Take Appalachian State (10*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | Jazz +12.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 121-142 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets are coming off a key bounce-back win over the Celtics at home two nights ago. That came on the heels of an overtime loss at home against the Suns two nights earlier. Utah is reeling having lost nine of its last 11 games but has played competitive basketball lately, recording three straight ATS wins entering Saturday's contest. On a positive note, the Jazz have held seven straight opponents to 46 or fewer made field goals. That may not seem like much of an accomplishment but given how they had been playing previously it's a step in the right direction. They're missing some key contributors offensively but have managed to knock down 42, 49 and 44 field goals over their last three games and should get Keyonte George back from a one-game absence on Saturday. I don't think Denver is well-positioned to cover too many big spreads like this given it has connected on 45 or fewer field goals in three of its last four and seven of its last 11 contests. Note that the Jazz are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss but ATS victory, as is the case here, including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Utah is also 19-15 ATS in its last 34 contests following three straight ATS wins, including a 7-3 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Denver is a middling 15-16 ATS in its last 31 games as a double-digit favorite including 5-6 ATS this season. The Nuggets are just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they were a road favorite, which is the situation here, going 4-6 ATS in that spot this season. Finally, Denver is a long-term 73-82 ATS following a win including 18-22 ATS this season. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | Celtics -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start on their current road trip with consecutive close losses coming at the hands of the Cavaliers and Nuggets. I look for them to 'get right' on Saturday as they continue their trip in Phoenix. The Suns are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games. Their offense remains a bit of a mess with Devin Booker still sounding like he's a game or two away from returning. Note that Phoenix has been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 11 straight games. On the flip side, the Suns continue to give up way too many scoring opportunities. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in an incredible 16 straight games. The Celtics figure to take advantage. Despite being held to just 39 and 41 made field goals in the first two games of their current road trip, they've averaged 43 made field goals on 90 field goal attempts per game on the road this season. Note that Boston is a long-term 54-28 ATS in its last 82 games following consecutive losses by six points or less, as is the case here, including a 4-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Phoenix is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-4 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | Georgia Tech +8.5 v. Virginia | Top | 57-72 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia at 8 pm et on Saturday. This is quite simply a case of two teams heading in opposite directions as Georgia Tech comes in having won four of its last five games SU and five of its last six ATS while Virginia has dropped the cash in five of its last six contests, winning outright only twice over that stretch. The Yellow Jackets faced the Cavaliers at their best back in mid-January as Virginia was in the midst of an eight-game winning streak. Meanwhile, that loss against Virginia marked the first of three straight defeats and part of a 2-12 stretch overall. Note that Georgia Tech is 52-47 ATS in its last 99 games as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Yellow Jackets are also a long-term 97-80 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 75 points or more, as is the case here, including a 5-1 ATS record in that spot this season. Virginia is a woeful 8-25 ATS in its last 33 contests following a loss by 20 points or more in-conference. Take Georgia Tech (10*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | North Carolina v. Duke -5.5 | 84-79 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Duke minus the points over North Carolina at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. The Tar Heels took the first matchup between these two teams this season back on February 3rd and that game wasn't particularly close as they led by double-digits at halftime and cruised the rest of the way. I look for the Blue Devils to answer back at Cameron Indoor on Saturday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing better offensive basketball than Duke right now as it has connected on 32, 30 and 32 field goals over its last three games. On the flip side, I like how the Blue Devils have been frustrating the opposition at the defensive end of the floor, holding each of their last four opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. The Tar Heels offense has been on point as well but hasn't proven to travel all that well this season. Note that North Carolina has connected on 25 or fewer field goals in seven of its nine true road games this season. That likely has something to do with the fact that it's more difficult for the Tar Heels to play at their preferred up-tempo pace away from home. Note that Duke ranks 242nd in the country in terms of adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. North Carolina is just 25-39 ATS in its last 64 games as a road underdog of six points or less including a 2-7 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Tar Heels are also just 10-12 ATS in their last 22 contests following a win by 30 points or more in-conference, as is the case here, including an 0-1 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Duke is 40-36 ATS in its last 76 games following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, which is the situation here, including a 4-2 ATS mark this season. The Blue Devils are a long-term 215-180 ATS as a home favorite including an 11-6 ATS record this season. Take Duke (8*). | |||||||
03-09-24 | Kansas v. Houston -8 | 46-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. The Jayhawks blasted the Cougars 78-65 in the previous meeting between these two teams this season but that was in Lawrence. Here, Kansas comes in feeling pretty good about itself after a 22-point rout of rival Kansas State on Tuesday. Meanwhile, Houston has dropped the cash in three straight games. Note that the Cougars are a long-term 128-116 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Better still, they're 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite, as is the case here. Kansas is just 13-15 ATS in its last 28 road games including a 3-5 ATS mark away from home this season. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
03-08-24 | Western Illinois v. Arkansas-Little Rock -5.5 | Top | 57-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Ohio Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas-Little Rock minus the points over Western Illinois at 8 pm et on Friday. Western Illinois enters this game on the heels of four straight wins but I think it's going to be in tough against Little Rock, which has reeled off nine straight victories and checks in 9-1 ATS over its last 10 contests. The problem Western Illinois is facing here is that it has allowed five straight opponents to get off at least 63 field goal attempts. Little Rock couldn't be any hotter offensively having connected on 28 or more field goals in five straight games and should welcome the up-tempo nature of this contest, ranking inside the top-100 in the country in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. Defensively, Little Rock has been locked in lately, holding four of its last five opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. In fact, the Trojans have limited an incredible 13 of their last 14 opponents to 25 or fewer successful field goal attempts. The Bulldogs are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games following a win by three points or less over a conference opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Trojans are 15-11 ATS in their last 26 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite. Take Arkansas-Little Rock (10*). | |||||||
03-08-24 | Magic v. Knicks +1 | Top | 74-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on New York plus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Everyone is down on the Knicks right now. Perhaps rightfully so as they've lost eight of their last 11 games and could be without Jalen Brunson again on Friday as he nurses a knee injury. The Magic have to feel pretty good about themselves as they ride a five-game winning streak and are already off to a perfect 2-0 start on their current road trip. They're playing with a rather small margin for error, however, noting that they've gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games and 88 or fewer in 16 of their last 17 contests. The Knicks can apply some defensive pressure here, noting they've held 14 of their last 16 opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Offensively, New York is struggling, however it did get off a whopping 99 field goal attempts against Atlanta two nights ago. The shots simply weren't falling. Note that the Knicks have lost four straight meetings in this series and that's notable as the Magic haven't defeated them in five straight matchups since recording a six-game winning streak from 2009-2011. Orlando is just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 road games with the line set between +3 and -3, which is likely to be the case here, including a 2-5 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Magic are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests following a win over a division opponent. Following consecutive wins over divisional foes they've gone 0-2 ATS over the last three campaigns. Additionally, they're 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games following three consecutive double-digit victories including an 0-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Knicks are 21-17 ATS in their last 38 home games with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 5-2 ATS mark this season. They're also 27-20 ATS in their last 47 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 5-3 ATS record this season. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
03-07-24 | Niagara -7 v. Siena | Top | 66-59 | Push | 0 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Thursday. This is undoubtedly a game Niagara has had circled on its calendar since dropping a wild 93-88 decision at home against Siena back on January 15th. That was about as strange of a game as they come as the Saints connected on just four three-pointers but shot 62.5% from the field and knocked down a whopping 31 free throws. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here, or anything close. Note that Siena has been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in an incredible 12 straight games. On the flip side, the Saints have allowed four straight opponents to connect on at least 27 field goals. Niagara has been struggling, dropping three straight games all in a favorite role. Note that the Purple Eagles are 21-11 ATS in their last 32 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. They're also 35-24 ATS in their last 59 contests following three straight ATS losses including a perfect 5-0 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Siena is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 games following consecutive ATS victories including an 0-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Saints are also 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games following a road defeat in which they scored fewer than 60 points. Take Niagara (10*). | |||||||
03-06-24 | Kings +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 130-120 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings are coming off a 113-109 loss at home against the surging Bulls on Monday. I look for them to bounce back against the Lakers on Wednesday. Los Angeles delivered an impressive 116-104 victory over the Thunder on Monday. Keep in mind, the Lakers caught the Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back. What I like about the Kings is their ability to limit their opponents' scoring opportunities. Sacramento has held five straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts and 14 of its last 16 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the season it has held opponents to an average of 87 field goal attempts per contest on the road. The Lakers have quite simply been shooting the lights out lately but I don't believe that is sustainable. On the flip side, Los Angeles continues to give up a boatload of scoring chances, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in eight of their last nine and 15 of their last 17 contests. Note that the Kings are 36-18 ATS in their last 54 games following a home loss and 25-16 ATS in their last 41 contests following an upset loss. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 24-29 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, and 25-28 ATS in their last 53 contests as a home favorite of six points or less. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
03-04-24 | Texas v. Baylor -6.5 | Top | 85-93 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Monday. Baylor continues to fly under the radar as a true national title contender perhaps overshadowed in a year where an expanded Big 12 boasts so many elite teams. The Bears enter this game off a dominant victory over Kansas on Saturday. They check in ranked 14th in the country according to KenPom with a unique mix of efficient but slow offense, ranking top-five in adjusted offensive efficiency but 301st in adjusted tempo. I expect that mix to frustrate Texas on Monday as the Bears look to avenge an earlier 75-73 loss against the Longhorns. Texas is in a log-jam in the middle of the Big 12 standings but it comes in satisfied following consecutive blowout wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Note that the Longhorns are just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog. They're 6-10 ATS in their last 16 contests following a double-digit win in-conference including a 1-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Additionally, Texas is 13-29 ATS in its last 42 contests following consecutive victories including a 1-8 ATS record in that spot this season. Meanwhile, Baylor checks in 27-20 ATS in its last 47 games when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Bears are a solid positive momentum play having gone 20-16 ATS in their last 36 contests after scoring 80 points or more and 28-23 ATS in their last 51 games after an ATS victory (15-12 ATS in their last 27 after consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here). Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
03-03-24 | Thunder -4.5 v. Suns | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Phoenix at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. The Suns had a rough night on Saturday. Not only did they lose to the Rockets but Jusuf Nurkic and Devin Booker were forced to leave with injuries and are questionable to return on Sunday. Regardless who is on the floor, Phoenix is having a miserable time slowing the opposition right now having allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in 13 straight and 15 of its last 16 games. That should be music to the ears of the Thunder as they look to bounce back from a surprisingly loss in San Antonio to open their four-game road trip. Oklahoma City will have the rest advantage here having not played since Thursday. The Thunder are playing as well as any team in the league offensively right now having made good on 44 or more field goals in seven straight games. The Suns have reached that number just twice in their last seven contests. It's been a struggle for Phoenix just to run its offense, hoisting up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 17 of its last 22 games. That's not likely to cut it against an explosive Thunder offense on Sunday. For the Suns it would be easy to punt this one and get ready for a trip to Denver (they are 2-1 on their current homestand after all), especially if they're missing Nurkic and/or Booker. Meanwhile, the Thunder know that this trip is going to get tougher with a stop in Los Angeles to face the Lakers tomorrow night. Oklahoma City is 18-10 ATS in its last 28 games following an upset road loss by double-digits, as is the case here, including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Better still, the Thunder are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 contests after giving up 130 points or more including a 3-1 ATS record this season. The Suns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of six points or less including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. They're also just 33-36 ATS in their last 69 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more including a 6-10 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
03-03-24 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Niagara -3 | 91-72 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Mount St. Mary's at 2 pm et on Sunday. Niagara is in a prime bounce-back spot on Sunday as it looks to rebound following consecutive double-digit losses. The Purple Eagles already outlasted Mount St. Mary's by an 82-71 score, on the road no less, back on January 21st. Niagara has gone 2-1 SU and ATS since Mount St. Mary's joined the MAAC in 2022. The Mountaineers have won just once in their last five games and that came at home. You would have to go back four road games to find the last time they posted a victory and that came against lowly Siena - one of the worst teams in the entire country let alone the MAAC. Niagara checks in 26-15 ATS in its last 41 games following consecutive double-digit losses. That situation has only come up once in the last three seasons and the Purple Eagles delivered the cash on that occasion as well. They're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after consecutive ATS losses including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Mount St. Mary's is 5-9 ATS in its last 14 contests after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games, as is the case here, including an 0-2 ATS record this season. Take Niagara (8*). | |||||||
03-02-24 | Wyoming v. Colorado State -15 | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Colorado State minus the points over Wyoming at 4 pm et on Saturday. To illustrate just how tough the Mountain West Conference is this season look no further than the fact that a team as good as Colorado State (ranked 33rd in the country according to KenPom) sits in seventh place with an even 8-8 record. The Rams enter this contest on the heels of three straight losses but I look for them to 'get right' against the Cowboys. This is a revenge game for Colorado State after it dropped a 79-76 decision on the road back on January 27th. That game saw a wide disparity at the free throw line in favor of Wyoming as it knocked down twice as many free throws as Colorado State (20-10). The script should flip in Saturday's rematch, noting that the Rams have permitted an average of just 15 trips to the charity stripe at home this season. Colorado State ranks 34th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and checks in having held eight straight opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals, limiting half of those foes to 22 or less. Offensively, the Rams haven't been setting the world on fire and part of that is by design as they sit 271st in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). With that said, I see this as a breakout spot against a bad Wyoming defense that has allowed 26 or more made field goals in five of its last six and 14 of its last 16 games overall. The Cowboys rank 248th in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency. The Cowboys are just 18-27 ATS in their last 45 games following an ATS loss including a 5-10 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, the Rams are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 contests when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including a 5-2 ATS record in that spot this season. Take Colorado State (10*). | |||||||
03-01-24 | Wizards v. Clippers -15 | Top | 115-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Washington at 10:40 pm et on Friday. This sets up as a smash spot for the reeling Clippers who enter this game losers of two straight and five of their last seven games overall. Los Angeles has faced a brutal stretch of opponents lately, going up against the Timberwolves, Warriors, Thunder, Grizzlies, Kings and Lakers over its last six contests. Only the date with Memphis offered any sort of reprieve and the Clippers did take advantage and win that game (albeit failing to cover the spread). Here, the Clips catch the Wizards off an 'empty the tank' overtime loss against the Lakers last night. Yes, last night's numbers were helped along by overtime but the Wizards have now allowed four of their last six opponents to make good on at least 50 field goals. They've yielded at least 47 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests. For the Clips, I believe their problems are fixable, at least in the short-term. They suffered a major collapse in the fourth quarter against the rival Lakers two nights ago, blowing a 21-point lead. They have now held each of their last four opponents to 91 or fewer field goal attempts which is a stride in the right direction after the way they had been playing previously. The Lakers quite simply went off offensively in the fourth quarter two nights ago. I don't expect the Wizards to replicate that performance here, noting that they average just 43 made field goals per contest on the road this season while the Clippers have held the opposition to an average of 41 successful field goal attempts per game at home. The Wiz are just 46-53 ATS in their last 109 games following an ATS victory including a 12-16 ATS mark in that situation this season. The Clips are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 contests following consecutive upset losses at home, as is the case here. That situation has come up just once in the last three seasons and Los Angeles did cover the spread in its next game on that occasion as well. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
03-01-24 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -7 | Top | 61-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Southern Miss at 8:30 pm et on Friday. Louisiana-Lafayette has inexplicably gone in the tank dropping four straight games both SU and ATS entering Friday's regular season finale against Southern Miss. Included in that four-game slide was a stunning 82-71 loss at Southern Miss last Saturday. I look for the Ragin' Cajuns to break out of their funk and exact some swift revenge on their home floor on Friday. The Golden Eagles have done well to hang onto sixth place in the Sun Belt Conference standings - tied with the Ragin' Cajuns, in fact. They've certainly had some good fortune along the way. Note that KenPom has them ranked 224th nationally but 47th in terms of its 'luck rating' metric. I simply feel we'll see Southern Miss' defense get overwhelmed in this particular spot. Note that the Eagles have allowed 25 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games with six of their last nine foes hoisting up more than 60 field goal attempts. That should be music to the ears of the Ragin' Cajuns shooters, noting that Louisiana-Lafayette is desperate for a breakout and plays fast having gotten off 64 or more field goal attempts in four of its last five contests. Defensively, the Ragin' Cajuns have admittedly been inconsistent lately but have limited four of their last six opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. They rank a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom despite playing fast, checking in 118th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Note that Southern Miss is 0-9 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 9.0 points over the last three seasons including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Louisiana-Lafayette is 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests as a home favorite including a 6-4 ATS record this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). | |||||||
02-28-24 | Virginia +1.5 v. Boston College | 72-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia plus the points over Boston College at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I see this as a 'get right' spot for the reeling Cavaliers as they look to snap their two-game losing streak and cover the spread for the first time in five games. Even in Saturday's double-digit loss to North Carolina, Virginia still held the Tar Heels to just 16 made field goals. In fact, the Cavaliers have allowed only two of their last 12 opponents to knock down more than 24 field goals. It's been the Virginia offense that has struggled lately but this is a favorable matchup in that regard. Boston College has been matador-like defensively in recent weeks, allowing its last seven foes to make good on 30, 28, 30, 30, 27, 28 and 27 field goals. Virginia did drop the most recent meeting in this series last February but it was four straight wins prior to that and the Cavaliers haven't lost consecutive matchups with the Eagles since 2011. Note that Virginia is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games on the road with the line set between +3 and -3 including a 2-1 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston College is 8-10 ATS in its last 18 contests after giving up 80 points or more in its previous game including a 2-6 ATS record in that situation this season. Take Virginia (8*). | |||||||
02-28-24 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -10 | 45-58 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Oklahoma at 8 pm et on Wednesday. Iowa State has undoubtedly had this game circled on its calendar since dropping a 71-63 decision on the road against Oklahoma back in early January. Since then the Cyclones have gone on a tear, going 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS over its last 13 games. With that being said, they enter Wednesday's rematch having failed to deliver the cash in consecutive games. I look for that to change here. Iowa State is locked-in defensively right now having held seven straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. That's in stark contrast to the Sooners who have allowed 28, 26 and 35 made field goals over their last three contests, albeit aided by overtime in their most recent game. Speaking of that most recent game, it was a big one for Oklahoma as it went on the road and staged a minor upset win over rival Oklahoma State. Note that the Sooners are just 21-24 ATS in their last 45 games following an upset win on the road including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons (0-2 ATS this season). They're also just 16-27 ATS in their last 43 contests following a win by three points or less in-conference. Meanwhile, Iowa State is 40-26 ATS in its last 66 contests off a home victory but non-cover including a 9-3 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Cyclones have been an excellent positive momentum play having gone 36-24 ATS in their last 60 games following a win including a 13-6 ATS mark when coming off a victory this season. Take Iowa State (8*). | |||||||
02-27-24 | 76ers +12.5 v. Celtics | Top | 99-117 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers got crushed by the Bucks in front of a national audience on Sunday afternoon as their struggles without Joel Embiid continued. I do think there's a path for Philadelphia to stay competitive in Boston on Tuesday, however. The 76ers do have the ability to effectively shorten proceedings having held three straight opponents to 80 or fewer field goal attempts and 10 of their last 14 foes to 87 or less. The Celtics may actually be willing partners here noting that they've limited three of their last four opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Despite Philadelphia's recent struggles it has held six of its last seven opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. There's certainly plenty of room for improvement for the Sixers offense after they connected on just 36-of-97 field goal attempts in a failed comeback against Milwaukee on Sunday. Note that Philadelphia has hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in eight of its last 11 contests so it is at least finding a way to generate plenty of scoring opportunities. Note that Philadelphia has dropped the last two matchups in this series but has gone 22-12 ATS in its last 34 games playing with double-revenge. The Sixers are also 21-17 ATS in their last 38 contests after being held to 100 points or less in their previous game including a 3-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Boston is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 contests following three straight ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here, including a 1-2 ATS record in that spot this season. The Celtics are also just 26-28 ATS in their last 54 games following eight straight victories including a 2-4 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
02-26-24 | Miami-FL +14 v. North Carolina | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over North Carolina at 7 pm et on Monday. Miami has now lost six straight games to fall all the way to 12th in the ACC standings. With games left against Boston College and Florida State, the Hurricanes can still move up two or three spots in advance of the ACC Tournament but they need to turn things around now. This is undoubtedly a game the Canes have had circled on their schedule as they let the Tar Heels off the hook in a narrow three-point loss against them back on February 10th. Miami connected on just six three-point attempts in that game and got to the free throw line only 13 times (making good on 10 of those attempts) in the loss. Since then it's been all downhill but I do think we'll see Miami rise to the occasion here. North Carolina checks in off a 54-44 victory over Virginia on Saturday. The Cavaliers quite simply couldn't take advantage of their scoring opportunities in that game, making good on only 16-of-58 field goal attempts. Keep in mind, the Tar Heels had allowed at least 27 made field goals in five straight games prior to that contest. While North Carolina has yielded 30 or more made field goals twice in its last six games, Miami has done so just once in its last 12 contests (that happened on Saturday against Georgia Tech). Currently pacing the ACC by a game, the Tar Heels undoubtedly have their sights set on their regular season finale - a showdown with Duke on March 9th that might just decide who goes into the ACC Tournament as the number one seed. Note that the underdog has won four straight games ATS in this series. Despite their struggles this season, the Canes remain a long-term 123-79 ATS as a road underdog including a 12-9 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. They're also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent. Meanwhile, North Carolina is just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. The Tar Heels are also just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 contests following consecutive ATS wins as a favorite including a 3-4 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
02-25-24 | Spurs v. Jazz -6 | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over San Antonio at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The Jazz are reeling right now, losers of five straight games both SU and ATS. Their recent struggles really came out of nowhere as they had notched consecutive impressive home wins over the Bucks and Thunder prior to their current losing skid. I see Sunday's matchup against the road-weary Spurs as an ideal 'get-right' spot. The wheels have come off for San Antonio defensively in recent weeks. It has allowed 49 or more made field goals in five of its last six games with each of its last four opponents getting off at least 92 field goal attempts. The Jazz had an awful shooting night against the Hornets on Thursday but I'm willing to chalk that up to rust following a week-long layoff due to the All-Star break. Note that Utah has still made good on more than 40 field goals in seven of its last eight contests. On the flip side, the Jazz put forth a better defensive effort in their first game following the break, holding Charlotte to just 40-of-92 shooting. Note that they've limited six of their last seven foes to 92 or fewer field goal attempts. San Antonio has been thriving in a more up-tempo environment. The Spurs check in having knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in seven of their last 10 games. Note that San Antonio is just 39-43 ATS in its last 82 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent including a 12-14 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Utah is 27-25 ATS in its last 52 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher including a 14-7 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
02-25-24 | Bucks v. 76ers +4.5 | Top | 119-98 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. The Bucks are coming off a much-needed upset win in Minnesota on Friday as they snapped their two-game losing streak. Milwaukee is still just 4-7 SU and ATS over its last 11 games. It figures to be hard-pressed to cover many spreads as a favorite when it has been held to 42 or fewer made field goals in a staggering eight straight games. Over that stretch, the Bucks were held to 87 or fewer field goal attempts on five different occasions. On the flip side, they've allowed six of their last eight foes to connect on at least 43 field goals. They were fortunate that the Timberwolves didn't take advantage of their opportunities on Friday as they did hoist up 98 field goal attempts. Philadelphia brought its two-game losing streak to a halt with a 104-97 win over the Cavaliers on Friday. The 76ers have now delivered the cash in three of their last five games ATS. They haven't exactly been setting the world on fire offensively either, but they're not the ones laying points in this spot. Note that Philadelphia has connected on 40 or more field goals in nine of its last 10 contests. Defensively, the 76ers have shown improvement lately, limiting three straight and six of their last eight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals including just 38 and 34 over their last two contests. The Bucks check in just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following an upset win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 contests when seeking revenge for a loss by three points or less against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
02-24-24 | Nets v. Wolves -8 | Top | 86-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Timberwolves dropped a 112-107 home loss against the Bucks last night. I look for them to bounce back on Saturday as they host the reeling Nets. Brooklyn has had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down. The Nets check in having made good on fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. They've mustered up just 79, 81 and 80 field goal attempts over their last three contests. Despite the loss last night, the T'Wolves continued to play well defensively. They've limited five straight and nine of their last 10 foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. In fact, only one of their last 19 opponents has gotten off 90 or more field goal attempts. Offensively, Minnesota has been far more consistent than Brooklyn, knocking down 46 or more field goals in three of its last five games and 40 or more in 18 of its last 23 contests. Brooklyn hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team this season, going just 11-16 ATS in 27 games following an ATS loss including a 6-9 ATS mark following consecutive ATS defeats. The Nets are also just 23-29 ATS in their last 52 contests when seeking revenge for home loss against an opponent, as is the case here, including a 5-9 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 17-12 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss by six points or less including a 5-2 ATS mark in that situation this season. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
02-24-24 | Colorado State v. UNLV -1 | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Colorado State at 8 pm et on Saturday. It's revenge week for UNLV as it follows up Wednesday's 72-43 rout of Air Force with a matchup against Colorado State on Saturday. The Rams took the first meeting between these two teams by a 78-75 score on January 19th. The difference on that night was Colorado State knocked down 10 three-pointers compared to UNLV's five. The shoe should be on the other foot in Las Vegas, where the Runnin' Rebels average eight made threes per game this season. UNLV checks in playing as well defensively as any team in the nation right now. The Rebels have held six straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. They've also limited six of their last seven foes to 53 or fewer field goal attempts. Colorado State is an excellent defensive team as well but it has been playing a little looser lately, allowing four of its last five opponents to get off at least 56 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Rams offense has made good on 25 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. Colorado State is a long-term loser following a loss at 146-166 ATS including a 9-17 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. UNLV on the other hand is 16-13 ATS in its last 29 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent including a 5-1 ATS record in that situation this season. Take UNLV (8*). | |||||||
02-24-24 | Duke v. Wake Forest -2.5 | 79-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest minus the points over Duke at 2 pm et on Saturday. Wake Forest didn't play well in its most recent matchup against Duke on February 12th yet it still lost by 'only' eight points, on the road no less. Here, the Demon Deacons have a shot at quick revenge as they host the Blue Devils on Saturday having gone a perfect 14-0 on their home floor this season. Duke benefited from an ice cold Miami offense on Wednesday as the Hurricanes made good on just 19-of-61 field goal attempts. Note that the Blue Devils have allowed five of their last seven opponents to make good on at least 24 field goals. Wake Forest figures to take advantage. The Demon Deacons have connected on 27 or more field goals in six of their last seven contests. On the flip side, they've held three of their last five foes to 22 or fewer made field goals. Note that Duke is 9-14 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog of three points or less including an 0-2 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Wake Forest is a modest 23-22 ATS in its last 45 games as a home favorite of three points or less but 4-1 ATS in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Wake Forest (8*). | |||||||
02-23-24 | Fairfield v. Quinnipiac -2 | 85-81 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Quinnipiac minus the points over Fairfield at 9 pm et on Friday. Quinnipiac has had four full days to stew on its second straight loss, which came on the heels of a 10-game winning streak. I look for the Bobcats to take out their frustrations on Fairfield on Friday. The Stags are fresh off a 94-80 home win over Mount St. Mary's. Still, they rank 236th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and I fully expect them to have their hands full with a Quinnipiac offense that pushes the pace at every opportunity. The Bobcats have gotten off 63 or more field goal attempts in four of their last five games. On the flip side, they've held three of their last four foes to 23 or fewer made field goals. Note that Fairfield is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 games following a double-digit home win including a 1-3 ATS mark in that situation this season. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 contests following a double-digit loss against a conference opponent, as is the case here. Take Quinnipiac (8*). | |||||||
02-23-24 | Clippers v. Grizzlies +9.5 | Top | 101-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies have to feel pretty good about their chances as they catch the Clippers in the second of back-to-backs on Friday night in Memphis. Los Angeles is struggling defensively right now having allowed six straight and eight of its last nine opponents to make good on at least 45 field goals. The Clippers have had no success slowing the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in five of their last seven contests. The Grizzlies, despite being undermanned, did show some signs of life offensively prior to the All-Star break, knocking down more than 40 field goals in four of their last six games. On the flip side they also held each of their last three opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. The Clippers have covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series but haven't won three games in a row ATS over the Grizzlies since back in 2018. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 40-54 ATS in its last 94 games as a road favorite of between 6.5 and 12 points including a 6-8 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. The Clips are also just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests following a road loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. Memphis on the other hand is 23-15 ATS in its last 38 games as a home underdog and 29-14 ATS in its last 43 contests when playing with double-revenge. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
02-23-24 | Heat +3.5 v. Pelicans | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. New Orleans looked like it emptied the tank in its first game back following the All-Star break last night, unloading on Houston in a 127-105 victory. The Pelicans played at an uncharacteristically fast pace in the game, hoisting up 96 field goal attempts. As a result, they reached 50 made field goals for a second straight game. I don't expect them to enjoy similar offensive success on Friday. Note that Miami quietly reeled off five straight ATS victories prior to the All-Star break. It checks in having limited eight straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. It has also held five of its last six foes to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that the Heat are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games played on three or more days' rest and a long-term 81-59 ATS in that situation. They're also 42-28 ATS in their last 70 contests as a road underdog. Meanwhile, New Orleans is just 17-18 ATS in its last 35 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 9-14 ATS in its last 23 contests following a win by 20 points or more over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | UNLV -5.5 v. Air Force | Top | 72-43 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV minus the points over Air Force at 11 pm et on Wednesday. UNLV is flashing in this revenge spot against Air Force. The Runnin' Rebels turned in their worst performance of the entire season in a 90-58 home loss against the Falcons back in January. Note that UNLV is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and a perfect 4-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss by 20 points or more against an opponent going all the way back to 1997 (only once over that stretch have they sought revenge for a home loss by 30 points or more). The Rebels enter this game locked-in defensively having held five straight opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, Air Force has connected on 21 or fewer field goals in three of its last four games. In fact, the Falcons have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down, attempting 52 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. While Air Force has done a tremendous job of slowing the pace and effectively shortening proceedings it has still allowed six straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to connect on at least 24 field goals despite six straight foes only managing to get off 51 or fewer field goal attempts. The problem here is that UNLV is comfortable playing at that slow pace as it ranks 299th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Rebels were held to just 22 made field goals in a narrow three-point loss to Nevada last time out but they have proven consistent offensively, making good on 24 or more field goals in nine of their last 11 contests, despite playing at that slow tempo. Note that UNLV is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a home loss in-conference and 6-1 ATS in its last seven contests following an upset loss at home, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Air Force is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games after losing six straight contests ATS and 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games off a road loss against a conference foe. Take UNLV (10*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | St. John's -10 v. Georgetown | Top | 90-85 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Week. My selection is on St. John's minus the points over Georgetown at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think we'll see St. John's go off on Wednesday as it looks to snap its three-game losing streak with a road date against Georgetown. The Red Storm continue to afford themselves plenty of scoring opportunities as they've hoisted up 69, 71, 69 and 68 field goal attempts over their last four games. Sunday's loss against Seton Hall snapped a streak of three straight games in which they connected on at least 28 field goals. Note that St. John's will be facing a Georgetown squad that ranks 307th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) on Wednesday. The Hoyas have allowed eight straight opponents to knock down at least 25 field goals with five of those foes connecting on 32 or more. On the flip side, the Red Storm have held four of their last five opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. Note that Georgetown has made good on 27 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and that's despite getting off more than 60 field goal attempts in five of those contests. St. John's checks in 5-2 ATS in its last seven games as a road favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five contests following three straight losses against conference foes. Meanwhile, Georgetown is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games as a home underdog and 6-9 ATS in its last 15 contests following consecutive double-digit losses against conference opponents. Take St. John's (10*). | |||||||
02-21-24 | Duke v. Miami-FL +5.5 | 84-55 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Blue Devils are red hot right now, winners of four games in a row, both SU and ATS. Meanwhile, Miami has lost four consecutive games, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. This is college basketball and any team is capable of rising up on any given night and I'm confident we'll see the Hurricanes do just that on Wednesday. Miami has now held six straight opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. The issue last time out was that it could only muster 51 field goal attempts itself in an 85-77 road loss against Boston College. Duke has allowed seven straight opponents to hoist up at least 57 field goal attempts and that should favor the Hurricanes and their 68th ranked offense (according to KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency metric) here. Note that Duke is just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 games after scoring 75 points or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here. It is also 27-37 ATS in its last 64 contests following four straight ATS victories as a favorite, which is also the situation on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Miami is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite of six points or less and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 contests following a road loss in-conference. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
02-20-24 | Baylor v. BYU -3 | 71-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on BYU minus the points over Baylor at 9 pm et on Tuesday. BYU got caught flat-footed on the road against Oklahoma State on Saturday as the Cowboys quite simply shot the lights out in a blowout victory. I look for the Cougars to bounce back as they look for revenge at home against Baylor on Tuesday. BYU dropped an 81-72 decision against the Bears in Waco back in early January. Since then, the Cougars have been on a bit of a roller-coaster but so have the Bears. Baylor enters this contest 'fat and happy' off a 94-81 road win over West Virginia on Saturday. Note that the Bears are just 9-11 ATS in their last 20 games following consecutive wins in-conference. Meanwhile, BYU is 47-28 ATS in its last 75 contests as a home favorite of six points or less including a perfect 2-0 ATS mark this season. Take BYU (8*). | |||||||
02-20-24 | Bowling Green +1.5 v. Central Michigan | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Bowling Green plus the points over Central Michigan at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This is a true 'get right' game for Bowling Green after it was blasted by Louisiana and Eastern Michigan in its last two contests. Here, the Falcons will have revenge on their minds after suffering a 77-76 home loss against Central Michigan earlier this month. The Chippewas have benefited from some good fortune this season as they rank second in the country in luck rating according to KenPom's metrics. It shows as the Chips have held six of their last eight opponents to 24 made field goals or less despite six of those foes getting off at least 60 field goal attempts. In fact, Central Michigan has allowed its last five opponents to hoist up 66, 73, 70, 60 and 69 field goal attempts. It also checks in 324th in the country (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted offensive rating. Bowling Green prefers to play at a fast pace - it simply hasn't been able to cash in on its opportunities over the last couple of games. I'm confident it can flip the script in this matchup. There's a fairly well-defined offensive ceiling in play when it comes to CMU as it has connected on 26 or fewer field goals in eight of its last nine games. The lone outlier over that stretch actually came against Bowling Green as the Chips made good on 31-of-61 field goal attempts in that game. I don't think there's any question the Falcons got caught looking past CMU on that occasion as they were fresh off an upset road win over Ball State. Note that Bowling Green is 3-1 ATS when coming off a loss in-conference this season and a perfect 2-0 ATS when that loss came on the road. Central Michigan is a long-term 67-84 ATS in its last 151 games after consecutive ATS wins including an 8-11 ATS mark in that situation over the last three seasons. Take Bowling Green (10*). | |||||||
02-19-24 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -3.5 | Top | 41-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia Tech minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. This is undoubtedly a game the Hokies have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 65-57 loss against the Cavaliers back on January 17th. Virginia Tech turned the basketball over 15 times in that game, allowing Virginia to play its game and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that the home team is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series. The straight-up winner has covered the spread in 16 straight matchups between these in-state rivals. The Cavaliers have expended plenty of energy during their 9-1 run to climb to third place in the ACC. Meanwhile, the Hokies have a lot of work to do as they sit 6-8 in conference play with six games left on the schedule. The good news is the schedule is fairly forgiving down the stretch but the Hokies need to turn it around here following Saturday's blowout loss at North Carolina. Note that Virginia is just 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 23-30 ATS in its last 53 contests following a win by three points or less against a conference opponent. Virginia Tech checks in 25-17 ATS in its last 42 games as a home favorite and 5-1 ATS in its last six contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which it scored 60 points or less. Take Virginia Tech (10*). | |||||||
02-15-24 | Gonzaga v. Loyola Marymount +13 | 91-74 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Loyola Marymount plus the points over Gonzaga at 9 pm et on Thursday. These two teams just met on January 30th with Gonzaga rolling to a 92-58 victory on its home floor. While I'm not convinced Loyola Marymount can gain a true ounce of revenge with an outright win on Thursday, I do look for the Lions to stay inside the lofty pointspread. The key here is Loyola Marymount's ability to effectively shorten proceedings on its home floor. The Lions have held eight of their last 12 opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. They did give up 63 field goal attempts against Pepperdine last time out but haven't yielded 60 or more in consecutive games at any time over their last 12 contests. Note that eight of Loyola Marymount's last 10 opponents have made good on 28 or fewer field goals. Gonzaga is in a fairly obvious letdown spot following Saturday's upset win at Kentucky. In stark contrast to the Lions, the Bulldogs have allowed more than 60 field goal attempts in nine of their last 13 games. They have held up reasonably well defensively but will have their hands full against a Lions squad that averages 27 made field goals per game at home this season. Note that Gonzaga is a long-term 36-40 ATS in its last 76 games as a road favorite of 12.5 or more points. The Bulldogs are also just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests following a win by six points or less and 0-3 ATS this season when coming off consecutive ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Lions are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog and 39-31 in their last 70 contests following an upset loss. That's not to mention the fact that they're 23-16 ATS in their last 39 games after suffering an ATS defeat. Take Loyola Marymount (8*). | |||||||
02-14-24 | Clippers v. Warriors -2.5 | 130-125 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. This sets up as a smash spot for the red hot Warriors as they host the Clippers on Wednesday night. Golden State has been on an incredible offensive tear, connecting on 44 or more field goals in an incredible 13 of its last 14 games. Over its last four contests it has knocked down 47, 52, 45 and 48 field goals. The Clippers are as vulnerable as it gets defensively right now having allowed four straight opponents to make good on 45 or more field goals. In fact, they've allowed six of their last seven foes to connect on 45 or more field goals. On the flip side, Los Angeles has sunken into a shooting slump itself, making good on 37 or fewer field goals in four of its last five contests. Note that the Clips are just 14-19 in their last 33 games as a road underdog of six points or less and 24-35 ATS in their last 59 contests following a home loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here. The Warriors are 41-27 in their last 68 games when seeking revenge for a same season loss against an opponent and 28-11 ATS in their last 39 contests when playing with double-revenge, which is the situation after the Clips took the last two meetings in December. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
02-13-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 15 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings suffered a heart-breaking loss the last time they played in Phoenix back on January 16th as they let the Suns off the hook in a 119-117 defeat (they still covered the spread). I say they let them off the hook because they led that game by 17 points at halftime and 12 points entering the fourth quarter. I like the spot for Sacramento here as it looks to get on track following a 127-113 loss in Oklahoma City on Sunday - its third defeat in its last four games. Sacramento continues to play well offensively. It has made good on at least 42 field goals in an incredible 15 of its last 17 games, connecting on 45, 51 and 44 field goals over its last three contests. The Suns have become rather forgiving defensively, allowing at least 90 field goal attempts in six straight and 12 of their last 14 games overall. Of course, Phoenix has been red hot offensively but I do think the Kings are capable of at least limiting the Suns scoring opportunities, noting that Sacramento has held three straight and six of its last eight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts (it allows an average of 42-of-87 shooting on the road this season). Note that the Kings are 33-23 ATS in their last 56 games following a double-digit loss, including 8-5 ATS in that situation this season. They're also a long-term 52-43 ATS in their last 95 contests when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more. Meanwhile, Phoenix is just 17-22 ATS in its last 39 games played on two days' rest (note that this is the first time it has had two days between games since January 16th-19th). The Suns are also just 15-17 ATS in their last 32 home games with the total set at 230 points or higher. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
02-12-24 | Kansas +2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 50-79 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas plus the points over Texas Tech at 9 pm et on Monday. I think the knee-jerk reaction is to fade Kansas here after it was stunned in overtime on the road against in-state rival Kansas State in front of a national audience one week ago tonight. We'll go the other way and back the Jayhawks as they look to snap a three-game road losing streak in Big 12 play. Note that you would have to go back five meetings to find the last time the Red Raiders defeated the Jayhawks and that marks their only victory in the last nine meetings in this series going back to the start of 2020. While Texas Tech did snap a three-game losing streak with a 66-59 win over Central Florida last time out it still failed to cover the spread for a fourth straight game. The Red Raiders continue to play too loose defensively for my liking, allowing five of their last seven opponents to get off more than 60 field goal attempts. Give a team as talented as the Jayhawks enough scoring opportunities and they're going to break through, noting Kansas has connected on more than 30 field goals in four of its last eight contests. The Jayhawks have certainly shown signs of life defensively in recent games, holding eight of their last 10 opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals and that includes last Monday's overtime game at Kansas State. Kansas ranks 14th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom and should be able to contend with a Texas Tech squad that sits 273rd in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). Note that Kansas is 15-11 ATS in its last 26 games following consecutive ATS losses and 18-13 ATS in its last 31 contests following a home win by three points or less, as is the case here. Texas Tech is 11-19 ATS in its last 30 games after holding its previous opponent to 60 points or less and 15-21 ATS in its last 36 contests as a home favorite of three points or less. Take Kansas (10*). | |||||||
02-10-24 | Suns v. Warriors +2 | Top | 112-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors are playing their best basketball of the season right now but so are the Suns. I do think Golden State is well-positioned to keep it rolling as it returns home on Saturday. Note that the Warriors have been red hot offensively, connecting on 43 or more field goals in 12 straight games including 47 or more in eight of those contests. They'll be facing a rather forgiving Suns defense on Saturday, noting that Phoenix has allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in seven of its last eight games. Golden State on the other hand has limited four of its last six foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. More impressively, the Warriors have held five of their last six opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals. The Suns are on a tear offensively but their shots have also been falling at an unsustainable rate as they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in five straight and 12 of their last 14 contests. Phoenix is a long-term 15-31 ATS in its last 46 games and 1-5 ATS this season off a home win by 10 points or more, as is the case here. The Suns are also 12-16 ATS in their last 28 contests following three straight ATS victories. Golden State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog and 9-2 ATS in its last 11 contests playing with triple-revenge (off three straight losses against an opponent). Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
02-10-24 | Siena v. Manhattan -7 | 68-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Manhattan minus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Saturday. Manhattan has quietly been playing much better lately, going 4-1-1 ATS over its last six contests. The Jaspers have finally found their rhythm offensively, knocking down 26 or more field goals in six straight games. Siena has benefited from facing some exceptionally slow teams such as Marist and St. Peter's lately and in those contests the Saints defense held up reasonably well. They still check in ranked 304th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). Worse still, Siena checks in 359th (out of 362 Division I teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency. Note that the Saints have been at their absolute worst in that department lately, connecting on 18 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games, topping out at 22 over that stretch (in a game where they hoisted up 61 field goal attempts). Manhattan is not a good defensive team by any means but it has also faced a pretty brutal schedule lately with four of its last five games coming on the road including matchups with Niagara and Fairfield in enemy territory. Note that Siena is juast 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games following a loss by 15 points or more and 18-24 ATS in its last 14 contests following an ATS loss. Meanwhile, Manhattan is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games following three straight losses against conference opponents, as is the case here. The Jaspers are also 24-19 ATS in their last 43 games after consecutive road losses. Take Manhattan (8*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,160 |
Dan Kaiser | $1,039 |
Tom Macrina | $650 |
Ray Monohan | $618 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Jesse Schule | $418 |
Big Al McMordie | $350 |
Marc Lawrence | $300 |
Mike Lundin | $293 |
Joseph D'Amico | $268 |