Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-09-22 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 44.5 | Top | 30-37 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Green Bay and Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the first meeting between these two teams this season way back in mid-September. We're likely to see a much different story unfold here as the Packers have little to play for and will likely only field their starters, on offense in particular, for a cameo appearance on Sunday afternoon in Detroit. As for the Lions, their offense has become depleted over the course of the season, missing TE T.J. Hockenson in particular. Despite 35+ pass attempts in four of its last five games, Detroit has topped out at 272 passing yards over that stretch with that performance coming in its first victory of the season against the defense-optional Vikings. I would anticipate a RB De'Andre Swift-centric offensive gameplan from the Lions here and the Packers likely wouldn't oppose to that as they look to get this game over with as quickly as possible and move on to playoff preparations. Note that both regular season meetings between these two NFC North rivals haven't gone 'over' the total since back in 2017. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | Top | 51-26 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 25 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Philadelphia at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. | |||||||
01-03-22 | Browns -1 v. Steelers | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -102 | 23 h 47 m | Show |
MNF First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland first half minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:15 pm et on Monday. Maybe Big Ben has some magic left in his final home start at Heinz Field. I'm willing to bet it's the Browns that come out aggressively and take a lead into halftime on Monday night, however. Prior to last week against Green Bay, the Browns hadn't dropped the cash in the first half in consecutive games all season. So here, they enter riding their only first half losing streak of the season. It's been a different story for the Steelers, who have now failed to cover the first half pointspread in seven consecutive games. Over that stretch they've been outscored 124-29. That's no fluke. Pittsburgh averages only 9.4 points on 5.2 yards per play in the first half at home this season. By contrast, the Browns average 14.1 points on 6.3 yards per play in the first half on the road. After losing the first meeting of the season by a 15-10 score at home - a game in which they were never able to get anything going offensively - I look for Cleveland to go on the attack early in this one, pounding away on the Steelers weak run defense that has allowed an ugly 4.8 yards per rush this season. Take Cleveland first half (10*). | |||||||
01-02-22 | Texans +13 v. 49ers | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -112 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
NFL Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Houston plus the points over San Francisco at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. A strange thing has happened as the Texans have reeled off consecutive wins and have actually played .500 football over their last six games. While they're a significant underdog on Sunday in Santa Clara, I believe they can hang tough. I like the fact that Houston has gone on the offensive lately, with QB Davis Mills actually playing well and displaying a solid rapport with his receiving corps. The Texans have attempted 106 passes over the last three games alone. Now they get Brandin Cooks back from Covid protocol which should only help their cause against what I consider to be a beatable 49ers defense. San Francisco had been rolling along offensively before running into a desperate Titans squad last Thursday. The Niners lost Jimmy Garroppolo in that game, however, meaning they'll turn to rookie Trey Lance in this one. While 49ers fans are high on Lance, and for good reason, at this early stage of his career I believe his starting presence should warrant a downgrade when it comes to the Niners offense, especially their two top playmakers in George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. I'm not entirely sure what sort of gameplan head coach Kyle Shanahan will cook up in this one but I do feel it's a stretch to expect the Niners to win this one by two touchdowns or more. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
01-02-22 | Jaguars v. Patriots OVER 41 | Top | 10-50 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. We've won with the 'over' in games involving the Jaguars in each of the last two weeks and I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here as we once again deal with a total set in the low-40's. Jacksonville has at least shown some life since ousting much-maligned head coach Urban Meyer. Over the last two games we've seen the Jags attempt a whopping 77 passes, completing 48 of those for well over 400 yards. That's progress as far as I'm concerned. Of course, we should temper expectations here as those last two performances came against the lowly Texans and Jets. That being said, I would expect to see the Jags stay aggressive as a massive underdog here. What do they have to lose? The Patriots on the other hand should absolutely go off in this bounce-back spot off last week's home loss against the Bills. The Jags have shown no semblance of run defense whatsoever, last week allowing the Jets to rush for a whopping 273 yards. That was before they lost a number of run-stuffers to the Covid list late in the week. Here, we'll note that Patriots home games have totalled an average of just shy of 50 points this season. Meanwhile, the Jags for all their problems still put up over 14 points per contest on the road, with those games averaging just shy of 42 total points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -111 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
CFB Bowl First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Ole Miss 'first half' minus the points over Baylor at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. Baylor did what many didn't believe it could, upsetting Oklahoma State in a revenge game to capture the Big 12 Championship in early December. Here, I believe the Bears face a much different challenge but rather than lay the points with Ole Miss in the full game, we'll focus on the first half only. The Rebels should offer something of a 'shock to the system' for the Bears defense, which hasn't faced an offense like the one Ole Miss possesses in the Big 12. There were times when the Rebels offense didn't look quite as explosive or potent as most expected but a lot of that had to do with a number of key contributors being banged-up or sidelined entirely. With a full month off between games (the Rebels haven't played since Thanksgiving Night) Ole Miss should be 'all systems go' for this one with do-it-all QB Matt Corral somewhat surprisingly playing in this game instead of opting out to prepare for the NFL Draft. I give Baylor all the credit in the world for winning the Big 12 title. We cashed a few tickets with the Bears over the course of the season and they could very well win this game as well as the Rebels do have the type of defense that will let opponents back in games. However, in the first half, I believe it will be Ole Miss that goes on the offensive (no pun intended) and gets plenty of licks in against a Bears defense you can throw on (we've seen a number of Baylor's opponents this season find success through the air). While Baylor has proven stout against the run, the Rebels offer a ground attack that can really disguise its looks and brings a different approach compared to what the Bears have seen, led by the dual-threat Corral. Also consider that if there's any team more built to play on the 'fast track' at the Superdome, it's the Rebels. Take Ole Miss first half (10*). | |||||||
12-31-21 | Rutgers v. Wake Forest -16.5 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest 'first half' minus the points over Rutgers at 11 am et on Friday. I'll lay the points in the first half only with the Demon Deacons on Friday as I believe they can provide a 'shock to the system' of sorts early on against the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers didn't face many 'pass-first' teams over the course of the season. Wake Forest is likely to throw all over it on Friday, however. The Demon Deacons play fast and like to air it out, completing 20+ passes in each of their final seven games down the stretch. The issue with Wake Forest, however, is its defense and its tendency to let teams hang around and in many cases get back in the game after falling behind big. I can certainly see that situation unfolding again here, even with the limited nature of Rutgers' offense (the total sitting in the 60's is telling in my opinion). So instead we'll call for the Deacs' to jump ahead by double-digits early on and hold that lead through the first 30 minutes and not worry about what happens in the second half. Take Wake Forest 'first half' (8*). | |||||||
12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin OVER 41 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
CFB Bowl First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Arizona State and Wisconsin at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. This is one of the lowest totals we'll see during Bowl season and while I can certainly understand the logic behind it, I believe it sets us up well to attack the first half total with a play on the 'over'. The common line of thinking here is that Wisconsin is going to pound the football all night long while Arizona State simply looks to possess the football for extended stretches and ultimately shorten this game in an effort to stay competitive. I actually think we'll see the Sun Devils and Badgers both take some shots down the field early on, however, in an effort to catch the opposing stout defenses off guard and open things up for the ground games to go off later in the contest. In other words, I can certainly see the game getting off to a relatively high-scoring start before the defenses and ground games settle in. Note that the Sun Devils saw an average total of 28.8 points scored in the first half in their games played away from home this season. Their defense certainly looked beatable away from Tempe, giving up 17 points per game in the first half. Wisconsin's defense allowed 1.5 points per game more in the first half away from home compared to at home, with its road contests totalling an average of 19.8 points - just shy of the number we're working with tonight. I have plenty of respect for the Wisconsin defense but here it will be facing a different type of offense than it's accustomed to seeing in the Big 10, with Sun Devils QB Jayden Daniels a dual-threat capable of creating splash plays with his arm or his legs. Meanwhile, Badgers fans are hoping this can be a lift-off game for QB Graham Mertz heading into 2022, something they've of course been starving for all season. Look for him to be afforded the opportunity to push the ball down field early on. Take the first half over (10*). | |||||||
12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson OVER 44 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Iowa State and Clemson at 5:45 pm et on Wednesday. This is one of the lowest posted totals we'll see in Bowl season. I believe it will prove too low. Iowa State is in for a bit of a 'shock to the system' here as Clemson ran the football 40+ times in six of its final 10 regular season games, and it had plenty of success doing so, particularly at the tail-end of the season as it piled up nearly 600 rushing yards in its final two contests. Only one of the Cyclones 12 opponents this season ran the football 40+ times. Note that two of their final three opponents gained over 200 yards on the ground. Of course, running the football equates to time off the clock. I'm not overly concerned, however, as I do feel the Clemson ground game should only serve to open things up for the pass. On the flip side, Iowa State is going to sling the football all over the field, especially without RB Breece Hall. The Cyclones threw the football 39, 42, 52 and 30 times over their final four regular season games, racking up over 300 yards passing in three of those games while scoring a whopping 48 points in the other. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Game of the Year. My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Louisville at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday. We've seen plenty of support for Louisville leading up to this game, flipping the line from the opener that saw Air Force as a short favorite. I don't agree with the move. The Falcons have done nothing but win under head coach Troy Calhoun - particularly since a disastrous 2-10 2013 season. This year, we saw Air Force navigate a tough Mountain West Conference schedule to go 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. I guess you could say Louisville's most impressive win came at home against Central Florida early in the season. There were also ugly lopsided losses against the likes of Ole Miss, N.C. State and Kentucky in the Cardinals regular season finale. Air Force closed out the regular season on a roll, winning three straight games and scoring 124 points in the process. I expect the Falcons to offer a real shock to the system to the Louisville defense here - a defense that struggled to stop the run at the best of times this season. The Cardinals can run as well, and will need to with a couple of key contributors at the wide receiver position transferring out of the program, but Air Force was stout against the run all season, allowing just 3.2 yards per rush against opponents that average 3.8 ypr. While few expect the Falcons to take to the air often in this game, I do think there will be opportunities for them to do so, noting that they did average 9.6 yards per pass attempt over the course of the regular season while Louisville was only average against the pass, giving up 7.0 yppa. Take Air Force (10*). | |||||||
12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints UNDER 37 | Top | 20-3 | Win | 102 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
NFL MNF 1H Total of the Month. My selection is on the first half 'under' between Miami and New Orleans at 8:15 pm et on Monday. We'll play the first half total only in this one as there's obviously plenty of uncertainty when it comes to the Saints gameplan on both sides of the football with so many key contributors sidelined. I like the way it sets up as a low-scoring start. While this looks like a slam dunk for the Fins on paper given all of the Saints absences, they'll have to be careful not to overlook New Orleans, which still has many of its defensive anchors on the field. I'm anticipating a more conservative offensive gameplan here after QB Tua Tagovailoa turned the football over twice in last week's win over the Jets, including one interception that was returned for a touchdown. We've seen renewed balance from the Miami offense lately as it has ran the football at least 39 times in two of its last three games and finally appears to have a fully healthy backfield for this one. The Saints are going to be extra-cautious when they have the football with fourth-string QB Ian Book running the offense. We can obviously expect to see a heavy dose of RB Alvin Kamara in this one. Regardless, I'm not expecting much from the New Orleans offense. Note that the Saints are averaging a woeful 6.0 points in the first half at home this season. The Dolphins, meanwhile, average 9.5 points in the first half on the road. The 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 in the first half of their next game with the Saints coming off a win this season, resulting in an average total of just 14.5 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 55-33 in the first half with the Fins coming off a win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Take the first half under (10*). | |||||||
12-27-21 | Western Michigan v. Nevada UNDER 56.5 | 52-24 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Western Michigan and Nevada at 11 am et on Monday. The 'over' has been the best bet during Bowl season so far but I believe we'll see a different story unfold in Monday's Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit. Nevada will be missing the core of its team for this one with QB Carson Strong and WR Romeo Doubs among those sitting the game out to prepare for the upcoming NFL Draft, not to mention half the coaching staff moving on with head coach Jay Norvell. While the Wolf Pack boasted a high-octane offense throughout the regular season, I wouldn't count on seeing that here. Western Michigan had a few standout performances over the course of the season but for the most part, its offense disappointed. Here, the Broncos will need to be cautious as they've had a tendency to turn the football over and Nevada has had a knack for forcing the same with 12 over its final five regular season games. Western Michigan has generally been a run-first team, topping out at 22 or less pass completions in all but one of its games this season (that coming in a stunning 44-41 upset win at Pitt back in September). I think we'll see both teams come out and look to control the time of possession in this one, ultimately working into our favor with a play on the 'under'. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-26-21 | Bears v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams are coming off low-scoring games earlier this week but I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday. The Bears will likely turn to Nick Foles at quarterback as Justin Fields deals with an ankle injury. Given what we've seen from Fields it's hard to envision much of a downgrade. If anything Foles may be able to do a better job of pushing the football down the field. It's not as if the Bears are bereft of playmakers on offense. RB David Montgomery is in line to go off against a weak Seattle run defense here. The Seahawks got some good news as WR Tyler Lockett sounds like he'll be able to play. Chicago's defense continues to play on without a number of key contributors and doesn't figure to offer much resistance here. Robert Quinn and the Bears pass rush is certainly a concern but I think the Seahawks can stay balanced and find some success regardless, noting that they scored 30 points in their lone home game over their last four contests. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
12-26-21 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
NFL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Jacksonville and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Jaguars home loss to the Texans last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they travel to New York to face the Jets. The Jags offense did show some signs of life or at least some semblance of an identity in last week's loss - the first game of the post-Urban Meyer era. RB James Robinson should be the focal point of the Jags offense moving forward and he figures to go off against the Jets league-worst run defense. New York is favored for a reason here, however, and I would anticipate the Jets offense enjoying some success against a Jags defense that will be missing arguably its best player in DE Josh Allen. Despite gaining only 228 total yards of offense in last week's loss in Miami, the Jets still managed to manufacture 24 points. They'll be taking a considerable step down in class against the Jags here and I expect them to turn Zach Wilson loose (which as we know could lead to points for either team). Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -1 | 22-16 | Loss | -117 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Indianapolis at 8:15 pm et on Saturday. With the Colts dealing with considerable Covid issues I can certainly see them punting this one, especially with games against the Raiders and Jaguars on deck. I liked the situation prior, but now that we have a little more clarity I see this as an ideal spot to back Arizona as a short favorite at home as it looks to bounce back from last week's dismal performance against the Lions. It's not difficult to come back from that type of poor performance as we saw from the Cards last week, particularly at home. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7.5 | 22-24 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Cleveland at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. I'm not going to get caught overthinking this one. The Browns are missing so many key contributors and let's face it, they weren't playing all that well to begin with. Yes, Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry are among those players expected back from Covid protocols. No I don't think they have any sort of advantage against a Packers defense that should be in a foul mood after giving up 30 points against the Ravens last Sunday. Offensively, there's little reason to expect anything other than Aaron Rodgers and the Pack offense running roughshod over the Browns overrated defense. Cleveland held up well against the Raiders on Monday but that had more to do with the limited nature and cautious, conservative approach by the Las Vegas offense than anything else in my opinion. The Browns don't get better with defensive anchor Myles Garrett dealing with a nagging groin injury and playing on a very short week. They also lose key safety John Johnson. Take Green Bay (10*). | |||||||
12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans OVER 44 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
TNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Francisco and Tennessee at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. After watching the Titans dismal offensive performance against the Steelers last Sunday this is a bit of a 'plug-your-nose and bet it' type of play on Thursday night but I love the way it sets up. The 49ers offense is set up to go off both on the ground and through the air as Jimmy G. in particular remains an undervalued commodity, even after a string of top flight performances. The question becomes whether the Titans offense can keep up, but I believe they can. Derrick Henry remains sidelined, as does Julio Jones. However, Tennessee got some good news with the return of WR A.J. Brown. He's in line to go off against a very beatable 49ers pass defense here. I'm still a believer in Titans QB Ryan Tannehill, even after last Sunday's ugly performance against the Steelers. The 49ers defense is thought of as a top-level unit but it has been getting regularly torched by opposing wide receivers. Last week's mistake-laden effort in Pittsburgh couldn't have sat well with the Titans. I expect them to come out aggressively as a result here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida UNDER 56 | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Central Florida and Florida at 7 pm et on Thursday. It seems that all anyone can remember when it comes to Florida - apart from its horrible play under then-head coach Dan Mullen - was the fact that it gave up 52 points against Samford back in November. Since then, the Gators have tightened things up, allowing 24 points against Missouri and 21 against Florida State. Here, they'll face a Central Florida squad that really only busted out offensively against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Temple and UConn - three of the worst defensive teams around. On a positive note, the Knights did hold five of their final six opponents to 17 points or less and I do think they can manage this matchup as well, noting that outside of that 70-point outburst against Samford, Florida was held to 24 points or less in four of its final five games. We're talking about two defenses that held opponents to 59.4% passing (Central Florida) and 57% passing (Florida) this season. Given the fact that both teams have been somewhat vulnerable against the run this season, I expect both offenses to focus on keeping it on the ground for stretches in this one and with a total in the mid-to-high 50's that has me firmly on the 'under'. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas UNDER 55 | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Bowl Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami-Ohio and North Texas at 3:30 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up as a lower-scoring game than most are expecting on Thursday. Miami-Ohio is coming off a wild 48-47 loss to Kent State (who we saw light it up but also fail to come up with any stops in Tuesday's lopsided loss against Wyoming). In fact, the 'over' has cashed in three of the Redhawks last four games. They threw all over the likes of Ohio, Buffalo and aforementioned Kent State over that stretch. I wouldn't anticipate them doing the same here. Note that North Texas allowed 20+ pass completions on only three occasions this season, against SMU, Missouri and Marshall. Over the Mean Green Eagles' last six games they held the opposition to a combined 97-for-184 (53%) passing. It's not as if teams simply elected to run all over them either, only UTSA (with standout RB Sincere McCormick) managed to gain more than 113 yards on the ground against them over that stretch. On the flip side, North Texas employs a run-first offense. Only twice this season did it complete more than 17 passes and it managed to score a combined 38 points in those two contests against SMU and Liberty where it was forced to play in catch-up mode. Miami-Ohio was respectable defending the run this season, holding opponents that average 4.4 yards per rush to 4.3 ypr. I don't envision the Redhawks getting taken advantage of through the air in this one, noting that they've been accustomed to facing pass-first offenses in the MAC, noting that they've seen 30+ pass attempts in eight straight games heading into this one. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 70-48 the last 118 times Miami-Ohio has come off a loss with those games totalling an average of just 47.3 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with North Texas coming off five or more consecutive wins, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 47.0 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 46.5 | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the ‘over’ between Seattle and Los Angeles at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again here, Seattle is going to relish playing the spoiler role down the stretch. The Seahawks could have folded the tent but instead they’re playing well off consecutive wins and I don’t expect them to roll over against the division rival Rams, in a revenge spot no less. On the flip side, the Rams are making up for lost time in a sense as well and should tee off on a very beatable Seahawks defense here - just as they did in the season’s first meeting. The loser gets to 21-24 points in this one and that should cash our ticket with ease. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles -6.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I’m not going to overthink this one. The Washington Football Team made things a lot closer than they probably should have been in last week’s home loss to the Cowboys. Now, likely missing a number of key cogs against the Eagles, on the road no less, I look for them to struggle mightily to stay competitive. Philadelphia is as healthy as you could hope for in the midst of this Omicron wave. And the Eagles obviously still have everything to play for at this point. Only Dallas miscues on offense kept the Football Team from getting embarrassed last Sunday. I can’t see them benefitting from the same against the Eagles though. Philadelphia has won three of its last four games with the lone loss coming in a clear letdown spot against the Giants on the road. They also put up 30+ points in those three wins and should be able to approach that number again here. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
12-21-21 | Wyoming v. Kent State +3.5 | 52-38 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Wyoming at 3:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Golden Flashes go from being favored by 3.5 points in the MAC Championship Game against Northern Illinois to catching the same number of points against a Wyoming squad that has lost six of its last eight games. The common line of thinking here is that the Cowboys have the superior defense and will therefore be able to control proceedings in this contest. I'm not so easily convinced. Keep in mind, the best two offenses Wyoming faced this season were arguably Fresno State and Boise State and they lost those two games by a combined 40-13 score. Note that the Cowboys want to run the football on offense. In fact, they didn't complete more than 18 passes on a single occasion this season. The problem is the Golden Flashes are more than used to facing similar offenses. Five opponents ran the football 40+ times against them over the course of the season. They've allowed 4.7 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.4 ypr. The Flashes have faced an average of 41 rush attempts per game and Wyoming runs the football an average of, you guessed it, 41 times per game. Interestingly, Wyoming's run defense hasn't been a whole lot better, allowing 4.4 ypr against opponents that average 4.1 ypr. It's the Cowboys pass defense that has been a difference-maker, but here I'm willing to bet on the talent of the Golden Flashes aerial attack led by QB Dustin Crum. Kent State head coach Sean Lewis has come on and turned the program around. The Flashes went 2-10 in his first season in 2018 but have posted three consecutive winning seasons since, including a win in the Frisco Bowl in 2019 (the program's first ever Bowl victory). Take Kent State (8*). | |||||||
12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears +6.5 | 17-9 | Loss | -104 | 23 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday. While the Bears are ravaged by Covid-related absences I'm willing to take a flyer on them grabbing nearly a full touchdown at home against what I consider to be an untrustworthy Vikings squad. Minnesota's most lopsided road win this season came by only seven points against the Chargers last month. The Vikes defense remains extremely vulnerable and it's obvious that the Bears offense is on an uptick right now, having scored 22 and 30 points in losses to the Cardinals and Packers - two very difficult matchups - over the last two weeks. Rookie QB Justin Fields is starting to build a good rapport with his receivers and I expect to see further progression against a very beatable Vikings secondary here. Note that the last three meetings in this series have been decided by a grand total of just 14 points with the Bears winning two of those games outright. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday. With all of the Bears projected absences on defense due to Covid protocols and other various injuries and ailments there's absolutely no excuse for the Vikings not to approach 30 points in this game. The Vikes are still missing WR Adam Thielen but the emergence of K.J. Osborn certainly lessens the blow. This one should be all about RB Dalvin Cook and WR Justin Jefferson anyway. Cook is in a smash spot against a very beatable Bears run defense that as I mentioned is missing a number of key cogs. Jefferson is always a strong candidate to find the end zone and he's likely to avoid Bears standout CB Jaylon Johnson here as he was moved to the Covid list on Sunday. The question becomes whether the Bears can do enough to help this one 'over' the total. I believe they can. Few teams have struggled as badly against opposing wide receivers as the Vikings this season and Bears rookie QB Justin Fields seems to be building a better rapport with his receiving corps with each passing week. WR Darnell Mooney brings the big play potential but it's actually Damiere Byrd and Jakeem Grant that I would keep an eye on in this one. Allen Robinson is likely going to be sidelined after hitting the Covid list but he's never been on the same page as Fields this season anyway, coming off another low-key performance last Sunday in Green Bay. The Vikings have been anything but stout against the run this season opening the door for a possible big game from Bears RB David Montgomery as well. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns OVER 41 | 16-14 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Cleveland at 5 pm et on Monday. Even with all of the uncertainly around Covid-related absences leading up to this game, I believe the potential is there for a relatively high-scoring affair. That's definitely a contrarian take when you consider the Raiders have been held to 16 or less points in five of their last six games. With that being said I like the way this one sets up for a couple of skill players in particular, those being WR Hunter Renfrow and RB Josh Jacobs. Renfrow should feast on an undermanned Browns secondary that has allowed opponents to complete 69% of their passes over their last eight games. Things don't figure to get better in that regard with a number of key cogs in the Cleveland pass defense sidelined for this one. Meanwhile, the Cleveland run defense has been average at best this season and we have seen Jacobs find the end zone in two of the last three games. On the flip side, the Browns QB situation remains clouded with Nick Mullens the most likely candidate to play in this one. I'm not sure it matters all that much as this one should be all about RB Nick Chubb who figures to go off against a weak Raiders run defense that allows 125 rush yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush this season. Vegas' pass defense checks in having allowed a whopping 7.9 yards per pass attempt over its last three games and has been particularly soft against opposing tight ends this season. While the Browns are unlikely to have TE Austin Hooper for this game, that is a position where they do boast considerable depth. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-20-21 | Tulsa -8.5 v. Old Dominion | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulsa minus the points over Old Dominion at 2:30 pm et on Monday. I believe there's a talent gap that isn't being properly reflected in this line. Tulsa had high hopes this season but a very difficult schedule ended up contributing to a 6-6 campaign. After a bitter two-point defeat in last year's Armed Forces Bowl you can be sure the Golden Hurricane's wealth of returning talent will be up for this game - even if it is 'only' the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Old Dominion reached this game thanks to reeling off five straight wins to close out the regular season. Of course, those wins came against a weak slate of opponents - the toughest being Middle Tennessee State, which the Monarchs upset as a three-point underdog. While Tulsa QB Davis Brin struggled for the most part this season, I'm not sure this is his game to win. Instead I look for the Golden Hurricane to lean heavily on their excellent ground attack led by RB Sharmari Brooks, along with their experienced defense which will be looking to make a statement after not quite living up to expectations over the course of the season. Underdogs have ruled Bowl season so far, but I look for Tulsa to reverse that trend on Monday. Take Tulsa (8*). | |||||||
12-19-21 | Bengals v. Broncos UNDER 45 | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Broncos saw their six-game 'under' streak come to an end in last Sunday's 38-10 rout of the Lions. That outcome had everything to do with Detroit's inability to control the game (or the football). I expect a different story to unfold here. I generally like playing Bengals 'overs' in games where they're projected to be playing from behind. I'm not convinced that's the case here. QB Joe Burrow leads what at times looks like one of the most explosive offenses in the league. At others, he's relegated to game-manager and I can see that being the case here against a Broncos defense that has held up well against the pass and the run. On the flip side, the Bengals defense has held six straight opponents to fewer than 300 yards passing and the Broncos don't figure to test that streak here, noting that they've thrown for 250 yards or less in seven consecutive games. Cincinnati has also held four straight opponents to 100 yards rushing or less. Note that on two previous occasions where they scored 28 points or more in a game this season, the Broncos proceeded to score 13 and 9 points the next week. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 42.5 | 13-19 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Pittsburgh at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Steelers loss in Minnesota last week and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Let's face it, the Steelers defense is horrible. Yes, they'll get T.J. Watt and Joe Haden back this week but as far as I'm concerned this unit is broken. While the Titans are still injury-depleted on offense, I'm confident enough in their aggressive play-calling and in QB Ryan Tannehill that they can continue to expose the Steelers shoddy defense here. On the flip side, the Titans defense hasn't been particularly good as a whole this season either. With that being said that unit is coming off a shutout performance last week. That came against the lowly Jaguars, however, in what turned out to be head coach Urban Meyer's swan-song. The Steelers offense has quietly been putting points on the board and should find some success in this desperation spot at home. We're being given a very reasonable total to work with here. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
NFL AFC South Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's hard not to envision the Jaguars offense getting a much-needed boost following the firing of head coach Urban Meyer. This is a smash spot for the Jags offense against a Texans defense that has never been able to find its footing this season and has been absolutely drummed by opposing ground attacks. Jags RB James Robinson was inexplicably in Meyer's doghouse but should be unleashed under interim head coach Darrell Bevell's guidance. If Robinson can get going in this one that should really open things up for Lawrence, who faces the Texans very beatable defense for the second time this season. Let's give credit where credit is due; Texans QB Davis Mills has shown signs of improvement recently and given the way the Jags secondary has struggled to defend opposing wide receivers, there's reason to believe Mills can enjoy another fine day on the statsheet on Sunday. As long as the Texans have a healthy Brandin Cooks they have the ability to move the chains and put points on the board. Let's not forget that the last time these two teams met, way back in Week 1, the Texans scored a season-high 37 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-18-21 | Marshall v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 55.5 | 21-36 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Marshall and Louisiana-Lafayette at 9:15 pm et on Saturday. There always seems to be a tendency for bettors to look to play the 'over' in the New Orleans Bowl with the game being played on the 'fast track' at the Superdome annually. It's worth noting, however, that five of the last New Orleans Bowls have totaled 48 points or less. Here, I'm anticipating another 'under' result. Marshall actually posted two of its three lowest scoring totals of the season in two of its last three games. The Thundering Herd have more of a 'pass-first' offense but could run into trouble here given Louisiana-Lafayette has allowed just two opponents to complete 20+ passes this season and in those two teams they still gave up only 24 and 21 points. The Ragin' Cajuns have more of a 'run-first' mentality and enter this game with a number of key cogs on offense banged up or sidelined altogether due to injury. You would have to go back to October 30th to find the last time they completed more than 19 passes. They did so only three times all season and two of those performances came in the first three weeks of the season. Marshall is by no means a defensive juggernaut but did hold opponents to 54% pass completions and just 6.2 yards per pass attempt over the course of the regular season. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts OVER 45 | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
NFL AFC Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New England and Indianapolis at 8:20 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting a defensive slugfest between these two old AFC rivals on Saturday night but I think we're in for an entertaining, relatively high-scoring affair. As the total continues to drop we'll step in now with a play on the 'over'. All most remember when it comes to the Patriots is that run-dominated 14-10 in windy Buffalo two Mondays ago. However, the Pats enter this game having posted their six highest point totals of the entire season over the last eight games alone. Take away that wind-induced low-scoring performance in Buffalo and you'll see just how consistent New England has been offensively on the road, scoring 25, 25, 27, 24 and 25 points in their five other road contests. As for the Colts, three of their four highest scoring performances of the season have come in their last three games as they've put up 41, 31 and 31 points. They know they're going to need to put some points on the board in order to prevail in this game as their defense simply hasn't held up well against the run (allowing 4.5 yards per rush) and they figure to face an onslaught from the Pats ground attack here. Don't discount Mac Jones in this one though either. He has completed 22 or more passes in nine of 13 games this season. Finally, I'll point out that the Pats haven't posted consecutive 'under' results since opening the season with four straight 'unders'. Meanwhile, the Colts have yet to post back-to-back 'under' results this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-18-21 | Oregon State v. Utah State +7.5 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State plus the points over Oregon State at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Upset wins over USC, Utah and Arizona State have had plenty of bettors high on the Oregon State Beavers this season. What I see, however, is a team that had a rather uneven season and lopsided victories were few and far between over the last two months of the campaign. The Beavers did beat Stanford by 21 and aforementioned Arizona State by 14 in November but they did so by holding those two teams to 14 and 10 points, respectively and both wins came at home. I would certainly expect Utah State to score far more than that here, and I'm confident the upstart Aggies can stay inside what I consider to be an inflated pointspread. Utah State has gone a perfect 7-0 away from home this season, capping it off with a Mountain West Conference championship in a decisive win over San Diego State. I absolutely love the Aggies senior class and fully expect them to go out on a high note here. First-year head coach Blake Anderson was involved in a swirl of controversy this week when a recording of his comments regarding sexual assault victims (from an address to his team at Fall camp) came out earlier this week. If anything I would expect that controversy to perhaps galvanize this team even more heading into Saturday's game. Take Utah State (9*). | |||||||
12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State OVER 51.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
Bowl Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between UTEP and Fresno State at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of uncertainty around Fresno State this week, stemming from QB Jake Haener seemingly transferring from the program but then reversing course and returning to the team in time for Bowl week. I'm not overly concerned. Haener is with the team and likely to at least see some action in this one. Even if he doesn't, the Bulldogs offense is capable of going off against a Miners defense that sagged down the stretch. UTEP comes in on a 1-4 slide, allowing 28, 44, 20, 28 and 42 points over that stretch. The good news for the Miners is they do have an offense capable of putting points on the board with a standout WR duo in Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett who have the ability to blow the top off of any secondary. Note that while the Miners are generally a run-first team, they're likely to be playing from behind for the majority of this game and in that scenario we saw them bomb away down the stretch, attempting 30+ passes in four of their final five regular season games. The 'over' went 4-1 in UTEP's five losses this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Northern Illinois OVER 62.5 | 47-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Coastal Carolina and Northern Illinois at 6 pm et on Friday. I'm expecting plenty of offensive fireworks between these two teams on Friday. Northern Illinois could be in for a shock to the system here as few opponents have elected to attack them through the air with any consistency this season but Coastal Carolina will with standout QB Grayson McCall looking to show off his talents in front of both NFL scouts and perhaps other schools as well as it sounds like he may be back for a final year of college but is likely to transfer from CCU. When the Huskies did face pass-first offenses this season they gave up 20 points against Eastern Michigan, 26 points against Bowling Green and 38 points against Central Michigan - all three boasting far weaker aerial attacks than the one they'll face on Friday. On the flip side, the Chanticleers are going to face a much different challenge than they're used to here as well, noting that Northern Illinois will pound the football on the ground and has had a ton of success doing so. Coastal Carolina gave up 25 points against Buffalo, 30 points against Appalachian State and 42 points against Georgia State in three previous games where the opposition ran the football 40+ times this season - as NIU is likely to do on Friday. Note that the Huskies enter this game having scored 34, 39, 47, 30, 33, 21 and 41 points in their last seven games. The 21-point performance came in a game against Western Michigan where they played their backups with a spot in the MAC Championship Game already clinched. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between the Chiefs and Chargers on Thursday night and will grab the points accordingly with Los Angeles in an underdog role. The Chargers have been frustratingly inconsistent this season. One thing that has been consistent about Los Angeles since Justin Herbert took over at quarterback last season is its ability to play the Chiefs tough, however. I expect nothing different here. Yes, the Chiefs are rolling right now. They've won six straight games, including four in a row ATS. Keep in mind, five of those games were played at Arrowhead. The only road win over that stretch came against a reeling Raiders squad. The Chargers are banged-up for this one but will get WR Keenan Allen back and it sounds like RB Austin Ekeler is more likely to play than not. The Chiefs are missing some key cogs as well, including DT Chris Jones. Here, we'll note that Kansas City has averaged just 18.7 points and outscored opponents by a narrow margin of 0.9 points the last six times it has played on the road after a victory by 14 points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Chargers have outscored opponents by an average margin of 6.4 points the last 25 times they've played at home with a posted total of 49.5 points or higher. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
AFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Kansas City and Los Angeles at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. All three primetime games went 'over' the total last week but I expect a different story to unfold as the division-rival Chiefs and Chargers kick off Week 15 with a good matchup on Thursday night. The Chargers defense has actually had the Chiefs number since the start of last season, allowing only 24, 23 and 21 points in three matchups, winning two of those. While Los Angeles did light up the Kansas City defense for 30 points in the last matchup between these two teams back in September, there's no question the Chiefs 'D' is playing much better now. While Kansas City will be without key pass rusher Chris Jones for this one, the Chargers will be without arguably their best o-lineman in rookie Rashawn Slater. That's not to mention the fact that WR Keenan Allen is coming out of Covid protocols after missing last week's game while RB Austin Ekeler is questionable to play due to an ankle injury. To put it simply, I don't expect Chargers QB Justin Herbert to enjoy the same level of success he did against Kansas City back in September. The Chargers defensive strength has been against the pass this season as they come in having held their last seven opponents to 138-of-235 (59%) passing - awful numbers for opposing QB's by today's NFL standards. Yes, you can beat the Chargers on the ground but the Chiefs by no means possess a dominant ground attack. With so much on the line in this one, I'm confident we'll see points come at a premium. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
NFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Arizona minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:15 pm et on Monday. While most will look to back the Rams in this big revenge spot on Monday Night Football, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cardinals. Interestingly, Arizona has lost its last two home games, falling against the Packers and Panthers. I do like what the Cardinals did last week in Chicago as they eased Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins back from injury - attempting only 15 passes - but still putting up 33 points against the Bears. The damage could have been much worse had they not eased off the gas in what was essentially a blowout. The Rams meanwhile went full throttle in a 37-7 rout of the lowly Jaguars at home. That snapped a three-game losing streak. At 5-7 ATS on the season, the Rams have been anything but a reliable bet. They've gone 4-2 on the road but haven't tasted victory away from home since posting a 38-22 win in Houston on Halloween. Since then we've seen them give up a whopping 67 points in consecutive losses in San Francisco and Green Bay. Three of their four road wins came against non-playoff contending teams in Seattle (with Geno Smith starting at QB for the Seahawks), New York (vs. the Giants) and Houston. I think it's fair to question at this point whether the Rams defense is as dominant as advertised. Arizona ripped the Rams for 216 rushing yards and 249 passing yards in a 37-20 win at So-Fi Stadium back in early October. With the Cardinals clamping down on opposing passing games (they're giving up only 6.4 yards per pass attempt) the Rams could be in tough as they're down another RB in Darrell Henderson (Covid protocols) and haven't had much success running the football at the best of times, gaining fewer than 100 yards rushing in four of their last six games. Sony Michel went off for 124 yards on 24 carries last week but he's been anything but consistent since joining the Rams. Take Arizona (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers OVER 43 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I'm not anticipating any sort of old-school defensive struggle between these two NFC North rivals on Sunday night in Green Bay. When these two teams met in Chicago earlier this season they combined to score only 38 points. The Bears defense has fallen apart since then, though. They've given up 29 points or more in four of six games since that 24-14 loss to Green Bay. The story is more about who's not on the field than who is when it comes to Chicago's injury-ravaged defense. While the Bears did allow 'only' 33 points against Arizona last Sunday, the damage could have been much worse were it not for the Cards simply easing QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins back into game action after missing extended time due to injury. The Bears have quietly been slinging the football all over the field in recent weeks and should employ a similar gameplan as they'll likely be playing from behind for much of the night on Sunday. Note that they've attempted 34, 39 and 41 passes in their last three contests. You would have to go back to Halloween to find the last time they ran the football 30+ times in a game. The last time these two teams met at Lambeau Field they combined to score 66 points last season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers -12 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday. I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Packers coming off their bye week. The Bears dropped a 33-22 decision at home against the Cardinals last week in a game that wasn't even as close as the lopsided final score indicated. Arizona could have gotten whatever it wanted offensively in that game and probably could or should have put up 40+ points were it not for taking its foot off the gas with QB Kyler Murray and WR DeAndre Hopkins easing their way back into action after missing time due to injury. Chicago will turn back to rookie Justin Fields under center after Andy Dalton failed to take care of the football in last week's loss. I'm not sure it makes any difference as this is an extremely limited Bears offense regardless who is under center. WR Allen Robinson is expected to return but he hasn't shown any sort of chemistry with Fields. On the flip side, the Packers offense should feast in this matchup. The Bears are shells of their former selves defensively. Six of their last seven opponents have rushed for over 100 yards while the last four teams they've faced have combined to complete 79-of-106 (75%) of their passes. In three meetings going back to the start of last season, Green Bay has scored 41, 35 and 24 points against Chicago. You would have to go back to December of 2018 to find the last time the Bears covered a spread in this series. Take Green Bay (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Lions v. Broncos -10.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Detroit at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. It's pretty easy to envision a scenario where the lowly Lions simply 'punt' this game given the illness that has ravaged the team this week with nearly half of the roster missing practice time at one point or another. That combined with Detroit in a clear letdown spot off its first victory of the season - a truly emotional win given the events that had transpired in Michigan the previous week - and you can understand why I'm not high on the Lions stringing together a second straight solid performance here. Keep in mind, even in last week's win, the Lions defense still struggled. Here, it will go against an often punchless Broncos offense but one that is set up exceptionally well to bounce back nicely following last Sunday's ugly performance in primetime against the Chiefs. With Detroit struggling mightily to defend the pass and the Broncos as healthy as they've been all season at the wide receiver position, this is a smash spot for Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver offense (I know that sounds strange). This will certainly be an emotional game for the Broncos after former WR Demariyus Thomas passed away suddenly earlier this week. Much like they did the last time we saw them on this field against the Chargers, look for the Broncos to come up big at home. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans OVER 40.5 | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday. While I'm not anticipating a track meet between these two teams on Sunday afternoon, I do believe this relatively low posted total will prove too low on Sunday afternoon. The Seahawks offense has made some progress with QB Russell Wilson seemingly getting more comfortable as he continues to recover from his finger injury. Last Sunday Wilson took a step in the right direction, throwing for just shy of 300 yards in a win over the 49ers. You can see that the big plays are there, Wilson simply needs to do a better job of putting the football in the right location. He should have little trouble doing so against a Texans defense that has no semblance of a pass rush and has been thrown all over by any opposing offense with a pulse this season. Rookie QB Davis Mills gets his second stint as the Texans starter under center in place of an ineffective Tyrod Taylor. The Texans would be wise to attack the Seahawks defense through the air in this one as Seattle is now without safety Jamal Adams while corner Quandre Diggs is banged up and questionable to play on Sunday as well. You can certainly envision a scenario where the Seahawks defense suffers a letdown here following a two-game stretch that saw it play on Monday Night Football and then at home against the division-rival 49ers. In two previous indoor games this season the Seahawks allowed a combined 46 points and 789 total yards at Indy and Minnesota. The Texans may appear to pose little offensive threat on paper but the Seahawks haven't exactly been a trustworthy squad this season. Take the over (8*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 48 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
NFL Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday. These two teams have been strongly trending to the 'under' lately but that only serves to set us up with value on the 'over' on Sunday as they match up for the first time this season. Dallas didn't have to score a whole lot against an extremely limited Saints offense last week but still managed to put 27 points on the board. With a couple of extra days of rest between games (that game against New Orleans was on Thursday) the Cowboys banged-up weapons on offense, namely Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb and Ezekiel Elliott have had extra time to get back closer to full strength. I expect them to be all systems go for this favorable matchup on Sunday. Washington hasn't been able to stop or even slow opposing passing games. They've given up 20+ pass completions in six of their last seven games. Here, they'll be without yet another pass rusher in Montez Sweat as he is on the Covid list and being un-vaccinated is unable to play on Sunday. Dak Prescott has the potential to absolutely go off in this one. Washington is coming off consecutive low-scoring affairs. Similar to Dallas' relatively low-scoring performance against the Saints last week, the Football Team hasn't had to score much to secure its last two victories against Seattle and Las Vegas. We should see a different story here, however. Washington WR Terry McLaurin should absolutely wreck Cowboys corner Trevon Diggs, who has been outstanding at intercepting the football but horrible at covering opposing wide receivers. Meanwhile, the Dallas run defense has shown some major cracks in recent weeks, allowing just shy of 5.0 yards per rush over its last three games. Everything should be on the table for QB Taylor Heinecke and the Washington offense in this one. Note that the Football Team scored 25 and 41 points in two meetings against Dallas last season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Navy v. Army UNDER 35.5 | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Navy and Army at 3 pm et on Saturday. Much has been made of the long 'under' streak in this series, which quite literally goes back nearly two decades. The oddsmakers have obviously made their adjustments, shifting the total all the way down to the mid-30's for this year's matchup. I'm still not sure it's enough. Note that the last two times we've seen totals posted in the 30's in this rivalry, the final score has reached just 27 (2018) and 15 points (2020). Navy checks in having averaged a woeful 4.3 points in its last six non-conference games. Army, meanwhile, has averaged just 17 points the last 60 times it has come off a bye week, as is the case here. We're certainly not going to see much passing in this contest. Both teams know their strength lies in pounding away with their triple-option based offenses. Note that Navy completed just 25-of-55 (45%) of its passes in games where it attempted more than eight passes this season. In games where Army attempted more than six passes it completed only 25-of-53 (47%) of its passes. While both defenses were exposed by the better passing offenses they faced over the course of the regular season, they both excelled against the run with Navy limiting opponents that average 4.6 yards per rush to just 4.1 ypr and Army holding opponents that average 4.3 ypr to only 3.7 ypr. No reason to re-invent the wheel here. While this total may appear very low, I believe it might actually look pretty steep by the time halftime rolls around on Saturday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Montana +8 v. James Madison | 6-28 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Montana plus the points over James Madison at 7 pm et on Friday. I'll take a shot with the underdog Grizzlies on Friday night as they travel to Virginia to challenge James Madison. Montana sports the number-five rank in FCS while James Madison is number-two. Montana hasn't lost a game since October 16th at the hands of Sacramento State. Its only other defeat this season came against Eastern Washington back on October 2nd - a loss it avenged in the playoffs last week as it prevailed 57-41 in the rematch. While the Grizzlies offense has been lighting it up, I believe its defense can hang in this one as well. It will certainly be challenged against a Dukes squad that has put up 50+ points in three of its last four games. While JMU does sport the higher overall ranking, it has only faced three top-25 ranked FCS squads during its current seven-game winning streak and none of those opponents were ranked higher than 18th. The Dukes did defeat Weber State, which was at the time ranked number-nine, back in mid-September but the Wildcats didn't turn out to be nearly as good as most expected, losing five games and failing to reach the playoffs. The Dukes are certainly tough at home but not unbeatable as they fell against Villanova on this field back in October. I simply feel this battle-tested Montana squad (last two opponents have been number-three and number-four ranked teams in FCS) can give JMU a difficult test on Friday night and we're being given more than a touchdown to work with (at the time of writing). Take Montana (10*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings OVER 43.5 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Pittsburgh and Minnesota at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I don't agree with the move at all as this total has dropped a few points since opening. The Vikings defense is one of the worst in the league in its current form and even with the Steelers boasting a QB that's well past his prime in Ben Roethlisberger and play-calling that leaves a lot to be desired at times, I'm willing to bet on skill players like WR Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson and RB Najee Harris in this matchup. Minnesota has allowed a whopping 94 points over its last three games. Pittsburgh's defense carries a 'brand name' reputation but certainly hasn't performed up to par for much of the campaign, due to injuries and otherwise. The big news here is that the Vikes offense will be without RB Dalvin Cook and WR Adam Thielen - a big reason for the downward shift in the total. That being said, I like the depth the Vikes possess on offense. RB Alexander Mattison is a Dalvin Cook clone while WR K.J. Osborn is capable of picking up some of the slack in Thielen's absence. The Steelers will undoubtedly have their hands full with Vikes WR Justin Jefferson, who should have another monster performance here. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Pittsburgh at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. Seeing plenty of love for the Steelers catching points in this Thursday night matchup but I can't say I agree. Extended losing streaks have been few and far between for the Vikings over the years, noting that they're 57-33 ATS in their last 90 games following consecutive losses. They've yet to lose three games in a row this season despite their 5-7 record. Believe it or not they're still alive in the NFC playoff hunt and I look for them to come up big in this primetime game at home. Yes, Minnesota will be without Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen for this game. With that being said, backup RB Alexander Mattison has been every bit as effective as Cook while the duo of Justin Jefferson and K.J. Osborn are more than capable of picking up the slack in Thielen's absence. The Vikes defense is certainly a concern but let's not act like the Steelers 'D' has been iron clad either. Note that Pittsburgh's two highest point totals allowed this season have come in their last three games. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New England at 8:15 pm et on Monday. I feel a bit like I'm in some sort of bizarro world with the Bills laying less than a field goal at home against the Patriots on Monday. New England has suddenly become the hunted as it enters Monday's action tied for the AFC's best record at 8-4, holding tie-breakers over the Ravens and Titans so essentially sitting as the conference's number one seed. The Bills can pull even with a victory on Monday night and I expect them to accomplish just that. New England has really played in just two true 'step up' games this season and it lost both against Tampa Bay and Dallas. There have been other tough games to be sure, perhaps most notably a 27-24 road win over the Chargers, but this is going to be one of its stiffest tests of the campaign. The Bills are without one of their best defensive players in Tre'Davious White but the Patriots will likely be without Kyle Dugger as well, so those absences somewhat offset one another. Offensively, the Pats don't have the likes of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs. Mac Jones has been great and is certainly worthy of consideration for Rookie of the Year but the real key to the New England offense is the underrated stable of running backs. Here's the problem though; the Bills have held the opposition to just 3.9 yards per rush this season with that number improving to 3.2 against divisional foes. That's not to mention the fact that they've allowed just 5.3 yards per pass attmept and the league's fewest completions of 20+ yards. After facing the Panthers, Browns, Falcons and Titans (without Derrick Henry, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown) in consecutive games, the Pats are in for a shock to the system here. The Bills ran roughshod against a very similar Pats defense in two meetings last season, scoring a whopping 62 points in the process. I like the fact that the Buffalo bandwagon cleared significantly following losses to the Jaguars and Colts. Time to back the Bills on Monday. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. This is a textbook fade of the 49ers after they posted three consecutive wins, scoring 30+ points in all three of those contests. Injuries always seem to be an issue when it comes to San Fran and here, they'll be without both WR Deebo Samuel and LB Fred Warner. The Seahawks showed a few positive flashes in Monday's ugly 17-15 loss in Washington but for the most part, bettors are way down on the team from the Pacific Northwest. Having matched a season-long three-game losing streak, I do think the Seahawks get up for this divisional home game. Note that the last time they faced the 49ers they were also down-trodden off consecutive losses and rose to the occasion with a 28-21 win on the road in the first week of October. The clock is most likely ticking on the Russell Wilson and/or Pete Carroll era in Seattle. Noting that the 'Hawks are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring 17 points or less in three straight games and 55-33 ATS off consecutive losses, I do look for them to give the Niners all they can handle on Sunday afternoon. Take Seattle (10*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
NFC West Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Seattle at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We missed with the 'over' in Seattle's 17-15 loss in Washington on Monday night - we weren't even close with that one. Seattle has now seen the 'under' cash in five straight games and that's a trend I see continuing here. The Seahawks point totals going back to October 7th are 17, 20, 10, 31, 0, 13 and 15. The one outlier was a 31-point outburst against Jacksonville in a game that still stayed 'under' the total. I have, however, been impressed by the way the Seahawks have defended lately and they're well-positioned to slow an undermanned 49ers offense that will be without its best weapon, WR Deebo Samuel here. The Niners offense is in a classic contrarian fade spot after scoring 30+ points in three straight games. Note that the Seahawks have turned into a bit of a pass funnel defense lately and I think that will work out fine in this matchup. San Francisco wants to run the football - noting that it has 39 or more rush attempts in each of its last three games. Seattle has limited opponents to just 3.9 yards per rush - opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush on the season. Over their last three games, the Seahawks have given up just 3.3 ypr. While the Niners offense has been explosive points-wise, they've completed 17 or fewer passes in six of their last seven games. The Seahawks are always going to remain committed to the run as long as Pete Carroll is the head coach (which may not be for much longer). That doesn't mean they'll find success on the ground, however, noting that they've rushed for fewer than 100 yards in five consecutive games. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals OVER 49 | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Los Angeles and Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Chargers continued their frustrating trend of alternating good and bad performances offensively in an ugly 28-13 loss in Denver last Sunday. As has been the case all season long, I expect them to bounce back offensively in this favorable matchup in Cincinnati on Sunday. After scoring 20 or less points this season, Los Angeles has put up 30, 24 and 41 points in its next game. Here, it faces a Bengals squad in line for a bit of a letdown after holding their last two opponents to a grand total of just 23 points. Keep in mind, in their two previous games they had been torched for 75 points. On the flip side, the Bengals are well-positioned to build off of last week's 41-point explosion against the Steelers as the Chargers check in having allowed 42, 34, 27, 24, 27, 37 and 28 points over their last six contests. Yes, Los Angeles is capable of stopping the pass, but the Bengals are just fine with pounding the football in Joe Mixon, who has quietly led one of the best ground attacks in football, averaging 4.5 yards per rush over their last three games. Unlike the last couple of games where the Bengals have been able to take their foot off the gas and throw the football only 29 and 25 times, I do expect the game script to require Joe Burrow to sling it around a little more here, also favoring the 'over'. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Wake Forest at 8 pm et on Saturday. This should be an entertaining affair between two teams that have brought a 'defense-optional' mentality to the table this season. I simply have more faith in the Panthers to get a few more stops than I do in the Demon Deacons to do so on Saturday night in Charlotte. Both teams come in sporting identical overall records but it's the Panthers that bring better form to the table. Wake Forest is just one game removed from dropping an ugly 48-27 decision against Clemson which as we know endured a down season. There was also a blown opportunity in Chapel Hill just a month ago as the Demon Deacons fell by a score of 58-55. Holding onto leads and keeping opponents out of the end zone has been a major problem for Wake Forest this season and it will undoubtedly have its hands full with Pitt on Saturday. The Panthers are coming off four straight wins and save for a somewhat inexplicable home loss to Miami have been lights out since the start of October (there was also an early season home loss against Western Michigan). This is a team that I believe has really grown over the course of the season - that was certainly evident in recent hard-fought wins over North Carolina and Virginia that previous Pitt squads may have faltered in. As much as I like what Sam Hartman and Wake can do offensively, I'm not confident that its defense can do anything to slow a highly-efficient Pitt offense here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Houston +10.5 v. Cincinnati | 20-35 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Cincinnati at 4 pm et on Saturday. I'm a believer in this Houston team and think it can finally give Cincinnati a run after dropping the last two matchups in this series in blowout fashion. The Bearcats are the hunted at this point as they try to hold on to their undefeated record and potentially earn a coveted CFP spot. The blowout win over SMU two weeks ago was impressive to say the least, but we know that the Bearcats aren't invincible. We saw it in a narrow win over Tulsa. We saw it in an eventual lopsided result at Tulane. Even last week, the Bearcats didn't look overly impressive in disposing of East Carolina by a 35-13 score as they turned the ball over three times, ran for less than four yards per rush and completed only 17 passes. Houston, meanwhile, has gone undefeated since opening the season with a tough loss to Texas Tech. The Cougars have demolished the majority of their opponents and it hasn't seemed to matter where they play, they've brought their 'A' game. I'm not sure that the Cincinnati defense has been quite as good as advertised with all of its talent and experience this season and I think Houston can find some success offensively in this one. The Bearcats likely once again get into the 30's, just as they have in the last two matchups between these teams, but this time the Cougars keep pace. Take Houston (7*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Georgia -6 v. Alabama | 24-41 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia minus the points over Alabama at 4 pm et on Saturday. There's a lot of talk about whether Alabama will get into the CFP by taking Georgia down to the wire, or perhaps even to overtime in Saturday's SEC Championship Game. I don't think we'll have to worry about that conversation as I expect the Bulldogs to win this one going away. It's not often we see Georgia favored in this series. In fact this is the first time it has been since back in 2015 when it was a -1.5-point favorite and lost by four touchdowns. I expect this game to play our much differently, however. The fact that Alabama needed overtime to get past Auburn in the Iron Bowl last Saturday was no fluke. The Crimson Tide just aren't the same juggernaut this season that we've been accustomed to seeing over the years. It happens. Not often, but it happens. Meanwhile, Georgia hasn't received nearly as much press as 'Bama (in my opinion anyway) but it continues to churn along, fresh off a 45-0 no-sweat rout of in-state rival Georgia Tech last Saturday. In fact, the Bulldogs really haven't had to break a sweat since pulling out a 10-3 win over Clemson way back in Week 1. Some would say that Alabama is more battle-tested. When it comes to college football though, I'll take the fresher team when the talent is virtually equal. Take Georgia (9*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -6 | Top | 46-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Utah State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We won with Utah State in last week's rout of New Mexico State while also cashing the 'under' in San Diego State's victory over Boise State. Here, I won't hesitate to lay the points with the Aztecs as I believe they match up well against Utah State's high-powered offensive attack. Yes, the Aggies can score. They have one of the most explosive offenses in the nation led by QB Carson Strong. I think they're going to be overmatched against an elite San Diego State defense here. After falling behind early we saw the Aztecs defense absolutely manhandle a good Boise State offense last Friday. Only Nevada has managed to throw on San Diego State this season and in that game the Wolfpack completely abandoned their ground game, running the ball only 15 times for a grand total of eight positive yards. The Aggies will look to run it a little bit but will likely run into a brick wall given the Aztecs have allowed just 2.6 yards per rush this season. Keep in mind, Utah State was held to only 17 points in a blowout loss against a quality Wyoming defense just two games back. Utah State hasn't fared well as an underdog in this series. In fact, the last three times it has been in that position it has lost by 31 (2020), 27 (2016) and 34 (2010) points. Take San Diego State (10*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | 21-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Baylor at 12 noon et on Saturday. We lost with Baylor in the first matchup between these two teams this season in a game that the Bears really had no business even sniffing out a cover in. The reality was, the Bears came within one stop (or one more first down by the Cowboys) of covering the pointspread in an eventual 10-point loss in Stillwater. Here, I don't expect things to be even that close. The Baylor defense was better positioned to go toe-to-toe in a slugfest with the Cowboys on that night. Now we find the Bears coming off a number of tight, hard-fought affairs and I can't help but think we might see them finally give in should they fall behind on Saturday. Oklahoma State has ravaged the majority of its recent opponents, up until Bedlam against rival Oklahoma last Saturday anyway. The Cowboys still ultimately prevailed in that rivalry showdown and I look for them to build off that performance and take another big step toward legitimate respectability on Saturday. Yes, they've earned plenty of respect this season, but not at the same level as some of the other power programs, despite their impressive play. Note that while the last matchup in this series was relatively close, the one before that went the Cowboys way by 39 points last December. Take Oklahoma State (9*). | |||||||
12-03-21 | Oregon +3 v. Utah | 10-38 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon plus the points over Utah at 8 pm et on Friday. We won with Utah in the first matchup between these two teams two weeks ago but in Friday's Pac-12 Championship Game I'll go the other way and back the Ducks after we cashed with them in last week's win over rival Oregon State. Everything went wrong for Oregon in that aforementioned first meeting. The Ducks simply couldn't get anything going on offense and once they fell behind by a considerable margin they were forced to abandon their gameplan entirely. It's not as if the Utah offense accomplished much in that game though. The Utes ran for right around 4.0 yards per rush and completed only 10 passes. Here, we'll note that all three of Utah's losses this season came away from home. I don't think this is a team necessarily built for the fast track at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Yes, Oregon also suffered both of its losses on the road this season. However, it also notched a win over National Championship contender Ohio State at the Horseshoe in Columbus. We haven't seen either team take consecutive wins in this series since the Ducks won in 2016 and 2017. Back-to-back wins for the Utes haven't come since they strung together consecutive victories over the Ducks between 1991 and 1994. Take Oregon (8*). | |||||||
12-03-21 | Western Kentucky -3 v. UTSA | 41-49 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over UTSA at 7 pm et on Friday. Western Kentucky might be the best team no one is paying attention to as we head into Conference Championship weekend. The Hilltoppers haven't lost since dropping a 52-46 decision against the same UTSA squad they'll face in Friday's C-USA Championship Game - reeling off seven straight wins while going 6-1 ATS in the process. That earlier showdown with the Roadrunners came at a tough time for the Hilltoppers as they were beaten down following three consecutive games against Army, Indiana and Michigan State. Needless to say, the Hilltoppers will be looking for an ounce of revenge in this one. The Roadrunners have received far more press this season thanks to their flawless 11-0 record before falling by 22 points on the road against North Texas last week. You could argue that was a 'meaningless' game so it was no surprise UTSA lost. However, if it was meaningless, why were QB Frank Harris and RB Sincere McCormick on the field? The Roadrunners enter this contest having dropped the cash in three straight games. While their passing game was efficient early in the season, that hasn't been the case down the stretch as they've completed just 102-of-171 (59.6%) of their passes over the last six games. With a total sitting in the low-70's this game obviously has high shootout potential and in that situation, I favor the Hilltoppers and their electric offense that has moved the ball at will through the air all season long. Interestingly, the Roadrunners haven't really faced any offenses of the sort since running into the Hilltoppers earlier this season (note that WKU racked up over 500 passing yards in that wild 52-46 loss). The Hilltoppers were favored by 3.5 points in the first matchup this season. I actually think they're in an even better spot here as the perfect conditions inside the Alamodome favor their explosive offense. Take Western Kentucky (9*). | |||||||
12-03-21 | Holy Cross v. Villanova UNDER 49.5 | Top | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
FCS Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Holy Cross and Villanova at 7 pm et on Friday. This matchup pits two of the best defensive teams in FCS. Holy Cross ran roughshod over the rest of the Patriot League but barely survived its playoff test against Sacred Heart last week, rallying for a 13-10 victory thanks to a touchdown in the closing seconds. The Crusaders struggled to get anything going offensively in that game and they'll be hard-pressed to bounce back in that regard against a championship-caliber defense in Villanova. Note that the Wildcats earned a first-round bye so they'll be taking the field for the first time in a couple of weeks on Friday night - this is a team with true FCS Championship aspirations, entering as the five-seed. What Holy Cross can hang its hat on is its own stout defense. The Crusaders have an outstanding defensive line, camping out in opposing backfields all season to rank fifth in the country in sacks. Both teams would be wise to keep the football on the ground for much of the evening, noting that the two defenses have had a knack for forcing turnovers. Holy Cross ranks tied for second in the country in interceptions while Villanova sits just behind, tied for third. The Wildcats have allowed just 18 offensive touchdowns in 11 games so far this season. In terms of yards per play allowed, these two teams both sit inside the top-four in FCS. You get the picture. Many bettors simply looking for early action on Friday night might look to the 'over' with this total sitting in the 40's. I believe it's the wrong move, however, as this game has the potential to be a slugfest. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and New Orleans at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. NOTE: Will downgrade this to a 7* play with Alvin Kamara officially ruled out. I can really see this game going a couple of different ways - either the Cowboys take their frustrations out on the reeling Saints and ultimately run up the score, or New Orleans rides the emotion of playing a second straight primetime home game after last week's debacle against Buffalo, with it's do-it-all RB Alvin Kamara back on the field to an upset victory. Either way, I believe we're set up well for a high-scoring affair. We've seen this total come down a bit since opening. That's largely due to the uncertainty around who will start at quarterback for the Saints and who will be healthy enough to take the field for the Cowboys offense. We're likely going to see Taysom Hill take over under center for the Saints. There's only one reason for that move, and that's to give the offense a spark after four consecutive losses. It's easy to forget that even with a struggling Trevor Siemian at quarterback for the majority of the action, the Saints had put up over 20 points in three consecutive games prior to last Thursday's blowout defeat. As I mentioned, the Saints are also likely to get RB Alvin Kamara back on the field for this one. I don't need to tell you that he's the heart-and-soul of this offense with Drew Brees having retired and Michael Thomas sidelined due to injury. Speaking of players getting back on the field, the Cowboys should have both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb back for this one. Even without that dynamic duo, Dallas still scored 33 points in last week's overtime loss to the Raiders. As long as the Cowboys have a healthy Dak Prescott and Kellen Moore aggressively calling plays on offense, there's reason to believe they can light up the scoreboard. The Saints defense, while stout at times, has sagged lately, largely due to shouldering so much of the load over the course of the season. Over their last four games, the Saints have allowed opponents to connect on better than 72% of their passes. The last two meetings in this series have been extremely low-scoring, totaling just 23 and 22 points. That's only serving to give us additional value with the 'over' in this one. Take the over (7*). | |||||||
11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
NFL MNF Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Washington at 8:15 pm et on Monday. The Seahawks season is long lost and after scoring a combined 13 points in Russell Wilson's first two games back from injury it's no surprise that bettors are spooked from backing them, or the 'over' in this matchup on Monday night. Seattle's last four games haven't come close to sniffing an 'over' result but I expect a different story to unfold here. There's little reason for the Seahawks to hold anything back from an offensive gameplanning standpoint in this one. Yes, Pete Carroll is always going to employ a run-first gameplan but due to a limited backfield as a result of a cluster of injuries, we've seen the Seahawks shift away from that somewhat since Russ' return. Game script has had something to do with that as well as the Seahawks have been trailing for the majority of the time in their last two games. Nevertheless, we've seen Seattle run the ball just 16 and 19 times in its last two games while throwing it a combined 66 times. Here, the Seahawks should benefit from facing a depleted Washington defense that is without its top two pass rushers in Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Opponents have rightfully attacked Washington through the air with considerable success, completing 90-of-122 (74%) pass attempts over the last four games. On the flip side, the Seahawks defense has been mercilessly assaulted by opposing passing games, allowing an average of 40 pass attempts per game this season. Last week, the Colt McCoy-led Cardinals offense completed 35-of-44 passes for 318 yards through the air. Washington QB Taylor Heinecke is an underrated passer and isn't afraid to take chances, which should work to his benefit as his receivers led by Terry McLaurin own an advantage against the Seahawks depleted secondary (they lost CB Tre Brown to injury in last week's game). It sounds like TE Logan Thomas and WR Curtis Samuel could be back on Monday as well to further bolster a very capable Washington offense. Heinecke should have plenty of time to operate against a Seahawks defense that sits last in the league in sack rate this season. Last year's matchup between these two teams produced just 35 points here in Washington. That, along with the fact that both teams have strongly trended to the 'under' in recent weeks and months helps keep this total in a very reasonable range. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-28-21 | Vikings v. 49ers OVER 48.5 | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Vikings huge win over the Packers last Sunday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Minnesota's offense has taken flight ever since that embarrassing performance at home against the Cowboys on Halloween Night. Over their last three games, the Vikes have scored a whopping 92 points. While the 49ers have allowed just 20 points in their last two games combined I don't see this as an all-that-imposing matchup for the Minnesota offense. Vikes WR Justin Jefferson is absolutely abusing opposing secondaries and the 49ers pass defense doesn't match up particularly well. Meanwhile, the 49ers offense has quietly come around, scoring 30 or more points in three of their last four contests. A healthy TE George Kittle has certainly made a big difference. Here, the Niners catch an undermanned Vikings defense that showed plenty of holes in last week's narrow victory over the Packers. Whether the Niners choose to attack the Vikes on the ground or through the air they should be able to find considerable success. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
11-28-21 | Chargers -2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. Somewhat inexplicably, the Broncos would actually pull even with the Chargers in the AFC West standings with a victory on Sunday. I don't think we'll see them get it though. Los Angeles has been a bit of a perplexing case this season and enters this game off consecutive ATS losses. There's no reason for the Chargers to be anything but confident after enduring a furious Steelers comeback last Sunday night in L.A. The Broncos meanwhile come off their bye week, which came on the heels of a blowout home loss against the Eagles (we won with Philadelphia in that game). Chargers QB Justin Herbert has had some success in two previous matchups against Vic Fangio's Broncos while Denver has proven to be vulnerable against the run and Chargers RB Austin Ekeler is playing some of the best football of his career right now. Broncos QB Teddy Bridgewater does have his full compliment of weapons back at his disposal but Denver's offensive line remains a concern. Until the Broncos hand the reins over to rookie RB JaVonte Williams rather than veteran Melvin Gordon I believe their offense will be held back. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
11-28-21 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45.5 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
NFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles are coming off a high-scoring game against the Saints last week - in fact, they've seen the 'over' cash in four of their last five contests. It generally takes two to push a game 'over' the total, however, and I'm not sure we'll see a shootout in this one. The Giants defense hasn't really been the problem this season. I expect to see them keep things simple as they try to contain the big plays and minimize the effectiveness of Eagles QB Jalen Hurts on Sunday. On the flip side, New York hands the offensive keys over to Freddie Kitchens after firing Jason Garrett on Tuesday. I don't envision a sudden turnaround for the G-Men offensively under Kitchens. If anything we'll likely see a renewed focus on the ground game with RB Saquon Barkley presumably back to full health. The Eagles are no pushovers against the run, however, allowing 119 rush yards or less in seven straight games entering Sunday's contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is on a stellar 43-19 run when the Eagles come off a game that totaled 60 or more points, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 42.2 points. The 'under' is also 12-3 in the Giants last 15 games with a total of between 42.5 and 49 points, producing an average total of 39.2 points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Texas A&M v. LSU UNDER 47 | 24-27 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas A&M and LSU at 7 pm et on Saturday. I'm not expecting much of the way of offensive fireworks in this SEC showdown on Saturday night. Texas A&M will be looking for a soft landing as it wraps up the regular season with this winnable road game against LSU. I'm not convinced we're going to see the Aggies take a ton of chances on offense in this one, knowing that they likely won't need to score much to prevail. Keep in mind, LSU ended a string of three straight games scoring 17 or less points by putting up just 27 against lowly Louisiana-Monroe last week. If the Tigers are going to stay competitive in this game they're going to have to play tough defense and we know they're capable of that. LSU held mighty Alabama to only 20 points, on the road no less, earlier this month. We've certainly seen the Tigers play their best defensive football down the stretch, giving up just 50 points combined over their last three games. The 'under' has cashed in the last two meetings in this series with the two teams taking turns scoring just seven points in road losses. Take the under (7*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Oregon State v. Oregon -6.5 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over Oregon State at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We won by fading Oregon in its blowout loss on the road against Utah last week. I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Ducks as they host the 'Civil War' against rival Oregon State on Saturday. The Ducks have been dealt blow after blow in terms of injuries this season but they've persevered and check into this regular season finale sporting a 9-2 record. While most are down on the Ducks after last week's ugly performance, we're being afforded a short pointspread in my opinion. Oregon State is 'fat and happy' off consecutive home wins to become Bowl eligible. The Beavers certainly want to run the football but here they're facing an Oregon squad that allows just 3.5 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush. Oregon State has only posted more than 19 pass completions once in its last nine games and that came against lowly Colorado. Note that Oregon has held its last three opponents to just 45-of-81 (56%) passing for 569 yards. Take Oregon (10*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Hawaii v. Wyoming UNDER 48.5 | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hawaii and Wyoming at 3 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results last week. I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday afternoon in Laramie, however. Keep in mind, this has been a low-scoring matchup in recent years with the last two meetings producing just 30 and 38 points. While Hawaii did hang 50 points on Colorado State last week, consistency simply hasn't been there for the Rainbow Warriors offense this season. Case in point, two weeks ago they were held to just 13 points in a two-touchdown loss at UNLV. Here, the Warriors will be up against a tough Wyoming defense that has allowed just 5.7 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average 7.1 yppa. The Cowboys haven't been quite as tough against the run but the Warriors simply don't have the horses to expose that weakness. Wyoming delivered a 44-17 win over Utah State last week - a somewhat stunning result as it was a 5.5-point underdog heading in. Performances like that have been few and far between for a team that likes to run the football and let its defense take care of the rest. Note that the Cowboys have attempted just 49 passes combined in their last three games. The 'under' checks in 18-4 the last 22 times Wyoming has come off a game that totaled 60+ points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 19-7 in Hawaii's last 26 games following a conference win by seven points or less. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Miami-FL -21 v. Duke | Top | 47-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
CFB Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Duke at 12:30 pm et on Saturday. Duke's season mercifully comes to an end on Saturday as it hosts Miami in yet another unfavorable spot. The Blue Devils season has been circling the drain for weeks - months really. They enter this contest having dropped the cash in five straight games and have been absolutely throttled by opposing offenses, allowing 45 points or more in all five of those ATS losses. While they have managed to score 29, 17 and 22 points over their last three games, there's little reason for optimism here. Note that in last week's 62-22 rout at the hands of Louisville they attempted a whopping 50 passes but gained only 275 yards through the air. Duke's ground attack has churned out plenty of yardage but it's been volume-based. Miami's defensive weakness this season has been against the pass but much of the damage was done in just two games - against Alabama and Pittsburgh. I don't need to tell you that Duke isn't Alabama or Pitt. When these two teams met last season Miami rolled to a 48-0 victory. We're dealing with a higher pointspread this time around but I believe the move is warranted. The Hurricanes have caught a spark down the stretch and can improve their Bowl standing with a victory here. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
11-26-21 | North Carolina +6.5 v. NC State | 30-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over North Carolina State at 7 pm et on Friday. You can be sure the Tar Heels would like nothing more than to spoil the Wolfpack's chances of reaching the ACC Championship Game with a victory here on Friday night. It's been a largely disappointing season for North Carolina but all is certainly not lost. The Tar Heels will still be going Bowling and can perhaps improve their standing in that regard with a win over in-state rival N.C. State here. This matchup has actually been no contest in the last two meetings with North Carolina rolling to a 41-10 road win two years ago before delivering a 48-21 victory in Chapel Hill last season. The Tar Heels were double-digit favorites in both of those games and have to feel at least a little bit disrespected as nearly touchdown underdogs in this one. Yes, QB Sam Howell is banged-up with an apparent injury to his non-throwing shoulder but he was held out of last week's game as a precaution and is expected to play on Friday night. The real star of the Tar Heels show has become their ground game anyway. They're churning out 212 rush yards per game on 5.3 yards per rush this season. Of course their aerial attack remains a real factor, averaging nearly 500 passing yards per game on 8.9 yards per pass attempt. While N.C. State enters this game 'fat and happy' off a 41-17 drubbing of Syracuse and sporting a perfect 6-0 home record this season, North Carolina has yet to taste victory away from Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels couldn't have gotten off to much worse of a start on the road against Pittsburgh two games back but in spite of that still managed to force overtime in an eventual 30-23 loss. They also gave an outstanding Notre Dame squad a run in a 44-34 loss in South Bend back on October 30th. My point is, as bad as things have gone for UNC at times this season, there have been some positives and I don't expect them to go away quietly on Friday night. Take North Carolina (8*). | |||||||
11-26-21 | UTEP v. UAB UNDER 50.5 | Top | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between UTEP and UAB at 2 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring results last week. UTEP matched a season-high for points scored, hanging 38 on Rice in a 10-point victory. UAB fell in a wild one against UTSA, dropping a 34-31 decision. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Miners and Blazers wrap up the C-USA regular season. Both teams want to run the football on offense but it's notable that the two defenses have held up well against the run, with UTEP allowing 3.7 yards per rush and UAB even better, giving up just 3.0 yards per rush against opponents that average 4.2 ypr this season. Note that UTEP also checks in allowing just 6.8 yards per pass attempt. UAB has been slightly worse in that department, giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt but that's against opponents that average 7.4 yppa. While UAB has given up north of 550 passing yards in its last two games combined, those two contests came on the road against quality offenses in Marshall and UTSA. Despite last week's 38-point outburst, UTEP is no offensive juggernaut having scored 30, 13, 26, 25 and 17 points in its five road games this season. UAB scored a season-high 52 points in its most recent home game but that came against a reeling Louisiana Tech squad. Both of these teams will be going Bowling this season and I anticipate a tightly-contested affair on Friday. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-26-21 | Utah State -16.5 v. New Mexico | 35-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over New Mexico at 1 pm et on Friday. I think we would be dealing with a considerably higher pointspread here were it not for the egg laid by Utah State in last week's game in Wyoming. The Aggies actually still have a slim chance at winning their division and earning a spot in the Mountain West Conference Championship game, but only if they win here on Friday. The timing of this game is key. For the Aggies to steal a division title they'll need both Boise State and Air Force to lose. Boise's game starts just an hour earlier and it's a tough one against San Diego State. Air Force doesn't kick off until later in the afternoon. Expect the Aggies to show up for this one and that might be all they have to do against a New Mexico squad whose season has been circling the drain for months really. The Lobos offense is as lifeless as it gets. They've scored a grand total of 24 points over their last three games and were shut out by Boise State last week. You would assume their defense would show up here in the season finale but this is certainly a tough matchup against an explosive Utah State offense that will be determined to erase the memory of last week's debacle against Wyoming. Take Utah State (9*). | |||||||
11-26-21 | Boise State v. San Diego State UNDER 44.5 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boise State and San Diego State at 12 noon et on Friday. This may appear to be a low total at first glance but numbers like this have been commonplace in games involving San Diego State this season. Note that the 'under' has cashed in five of the Aztecs last seven games overall. As for Boise State, each of its last six contests have stayed 'under' the total. Both teams like to run the football. Both teams are capable of playing exceptional defense. The Broncos and Aztecs haven't met since 2018 but the last time they did they combined to score just 32 points. Look for more of the same in this very early start at the Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California on Friday morning. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 63 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ole Miss and Mississippi State at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. We're dealing with a lower posted total than we saw in this same matchup last season despite the fact that I think we're better-positioned for a true shootout on Thursday. Ole Miss has seen the 'under' cash in six consecutive games heading into this one. The fact is, the Rebels ultra-fast offense hasn't had to score a whole lot in recent weeks, simply due to the type of opponents it has gone up against. Here, I expect a different story to unfold. Mississippi State doesn't run the football often. The Bulldogs have just 60 rush attempts over their last three games combined. Over that same stretch they attempted a whopping 150 passes, with considerable success, gaining over 1,300 yards through the air. Ole Miss has held up well defensively over the last few games, allowing less than 20 points in each contest. But we got a first hand look at just how bad the Rebels defense can be in an earlier matchup against Arkansas - a game in which they got lit up for 51 points in a narrow one-point win (and non-cover). The Bulldogs offense hasn't had a great deal of success in this series in recent years, but this is its best shot at lighting up the scoreboard. Expect plenty of offense on Thanksgiving Night. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-25-21 | Raiders v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | 36-33 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Las Vegas and Dallas at 4:30 pm et on Thursday. With a banged-up offense that could be without its top two receivers in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, I'm expecting the Cowboys to methodically move the football with long, clock-churning drives on offense while leaning on their defense to take care of the rest in what I feel projects as a relatively low-scoring game in Big D on Thursday afternoon. The Raiders are just looking to sustain a drive or two at this point. They've been held to just 16, 14 and 13 points over their last three games and this doesn't figure to be an ideal 'get right' spot against a Cowboys team coming off an ugly loss in Kansas City on Sunday. The wheels have quite simply come off for the Raiders offense as teams have counter-punched their renewed commitment to play action under coordinator Greg Olson. In the last two games combined, Las Vegas has only managed to muster 32 rush attempts and 62 pass attempts and both of those games were played at home where you would assume it would be able to control the tempo of the game a little better. The Cowboys defense quietly continues to dominate. Over their last six games they've allowed a miserly 111-of-188 (59%) passing. Over their last five contests they haven't allowed a single opponent to throw for more than 244 yards. Only the Broncos were really able to make much headway on the ground, and as you know that game was a bit of an anomaly as the Cowboys inexplicably fell by a 30-16 score. Take the under (9*). | |||||||
11-25-21 | Bears -3 v. Lions | 16-14 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Bears in this matchup between two down-trodden NFC North squads. Let's face it, neither team has much going for it entering this Thanksgiving Day showdown. With that being said, I have reason to believe that Chicago is better-positioned to stop the bleeding with a victory here. No, the Bears won't have Justin Fields. They won't have Allen Robinson. They won't have Khalil Mack. However, I do feel that two offensive players in particular match up well here, those being WR Darnell Mooney and RB David Montgomery. Mooney has shown a good enough rapport in limited work with QB Andy Dalton this season to give me hope that he can expose a Lions secondary that has been absolutely flamed for big play after big play this season with only seven teams giving up more pass completions of 20+ yards. Meanwhile, Detroit's run defense has been non-existent. The Lions have allowed a whopping 565 rushing yards over their last three games. Those are college-like numbers. Defensively, even without Mack, I also like the matchup for the Bears. Yes, Chicago like Detroit has struggled to stop the run lately but the Lions ground attack has been so inconsistent that I can't really trust them to pound away with any success here. Guys like Alec Ogletree, Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith had a field day against the Lions swinging door-like offensive line in the first meeting between these two teams this season and I expect that trio to create plenty of chaos again on Thursday. Despite the distraction around head coach Matt Nagy's potential firing, I expect to see the Bears come to play in this one. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
11-23-21 | Western Michigan -3.5 v. Northern Illinois | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
Take Western Michigan minus the points over Northern Illinois at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I believe the Broncos are favored for a reason in this one, despite the fact that they've dropped the cash in four straight games and face a Northern Illinois squad that is headed to the MAC Championship Game. Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester is doing the right thing, pointing to the fact that the Broncos haven't won a game here in Dekalb since way back in 2007. Despite the fact that Northern Illinois owns the better overall record and as I mentioned is bound for the conference title game in Detroit next week, I believe Western Michigan may actually be the better team. Keep in mind, the Broncos have a road win over Pitt to their credit this season. I think they may have been caught looking ahead to this matchup when they coughed up a 14-0 lead on the road against Eastern Michigan last week. Here, we'll note that the Broncos are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games following three consecutive ATS losses. Take Western Michigan (6*). | |||||||
11-22-21 | Giants v. Bucs -11 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 179 h 3 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday. This sets up as a smash spot for the defending champion Bucs as they return home off a highly-disappointing loss in Washington - their second defeat in a row - to host the Giants on Monday Night Football. New York is coming off its bye week and checks in having won two of its last three games overall. Keep in mind, those two victories came against a reeling (at the time) Panthers squad quarterbacked by Sam Darnold and a Raiders squad that is clearly in the midst of a downturn. Most expected the Bucs to come out firing on all cylinders off their bye week but that simply wasn't the case as they got tripped up by a Washington squad that certainly has the talent to win on any given week (remember, the 'Football Team' also gave the Bucs all they could handle during the playoffs last January). This is a far more favorable matchup for Tom Brady and co. back at home. When we last saw the Bucs here in Tampa they were laying waste to the Bears in a 38-3 cakewalk. New York dropped last year's meeting in this series by only two points in New Jersey. It's certainly worth noting that the Bucs were favored by 13 points in that game (a higher pointspread than we're dealing with here despite Tampa having home field advantage this time around). The G-Men held up well in their last MNF appearance against the Chiefs on November 1st. But let's not forget that this is a team that has also lost by 24 and 27-point margins in step-up games against the Cowboys and Rams, respectively. They're quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Take Tampa Bay (10*). | |||||||
11-21-21 | Texans v. Titans OVER 44.5 | 22-13 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Houston and Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's easy to forget that this matchup produced two of the highest-scoring games of the entire 2020 season, totaling 78 and 79 points. The Texans obviously aren't the same offensive team as they were a year ago. With that being said, I do think they can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably low total. Tyrod Taylor will get another shot at the starting quarterback job despite performing horribly in a road game against the Dolphins prior to the bye. This is actually a favorable matchup for the Texans offense as the Titans defense is by no means dominant. Note that Houston does continue to bomb away, attempting 43, 32, 39 and 44 passes in its last four games. Having dealt away veteran RB Mark Ingram, the Texans have little interest in pounding the rock, running the football 18 times or less in three consecutive games. On the flip side, the Titans offense should absolutely unload on an awful Texans defense in this one. There's an interesting narrative at play here with Titans lead back D'Onta Foreman facing the team that drafted him before casting him away following a devastating injury in 2018. No Derrick Henry, no problem. At least this week as Houston has been flamed for 150 rush yards per game on 4.6 yards per rush on the road this season. Of course, the Texans haven't been any better against the pass, giving up 7.7 yards per pass attempt against opponents that average just 6.8 yppa this season. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
11-21-21 | Dolphins v. Jets UNDER 44.5 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
NFL AFC East Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Bills and the 'over' in the Jets blowout loss last week here at home. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the New York hosts Miami. The Jets will turn to veteran Joe Flacco at quarterback. I don't need to tell you how much that should limit the offense. Flacco is more or less in there to be a 'game manager' as this appears to be a decent chance for the Jets to earn a rare victory, at least on paper. While we've seen New York really open up the playbook with Mike White under center, I don't think that will be the case with Flacco at the helm. On the flip side, while we can project moderate success for the Dolphins offense against a reeling Jets defense, I don't expect an offensive explosion. Miami has a very pedestrian ground attack, which is the area where the Jets defense has struggled most. The Miami passing attack remains undermanned, leaning heavily on rookie WR Jaylen Waddle and TE Mike Gesicki in the absence of Devante Parker and Will Fuller. Note that you would have to go all the way back to October of 2017 to find the last time a matchup in this series topped 44 total points. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings OVER 47 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NFC North Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Green Bay and Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has inexplicably cashed in each of the Packers last seven games and five of the Vikings last seven contests overall. That is providing us with a very reasonable total to work with on Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, when these two division rivals met here at U.S. Bank Stadium last season they combined to score a whopping 77 points. The return matchup in Green Bay totaled 50 points. The Packers last two games have reached only 20 and 17 points but those were in unique circumstances. Two games back Green Bay was without Aaron Rodgers in Kansas City. Last week, it didn't need to keep its foot on the gas offensively as the Seahawks offense was severely limited with Russell Wilson clearly not 100% healthy in his first game back from injury. Here, I think both teams will gameplan aggressively on offense knowing they're going to need to put up plenty of points to prevail. The Packers have held up well despite missing some key cogs on defense. Now they'll be without do-it-all RB Aaron Jones as well but I'm confidence in A.J. Dillon's ability to fill the void in the backfield. Vikes QB Kirk Cousins has been wildly inconsistent but I think he can find some success in this matchup. Note that in last year's two matchups, the Vikes offense held the ball for just over 18 and 27 minutes but still managed to score 34 and 28 points in those two games respectively. I'm banking on a shootout on Sunday afternoon. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
NFC Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Green Bay at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Packers have inexplicably covered the spread in nine straight games entering Sunday's NFC North clash in Minnesota. Their defense has led the way despite missing two of their best players in pass-rush specialist Za'Darius Smith and shutdown corner Jaire Alexander. I think this is the game where the levee breaks for the Pack defense against a Vikings offense that has all hands on deck and is coming off a two-game road trip that saw it score 58 points. The Vikes are somewhat surprisingly just 2-2 at home this season, where they generally own a significant edge. On the flip side, the Packers have gone 4-1 on the road but the majority of those victories have come in Houdini fashion. At some point they're going to get tripped up, and I see this as the spot. Green Bay has actually won consecutive trips to Minnesota but sustained success isn't likely. Unlike the other NFC North squads which Green Bay has beaten up on over the years, Minnesota has held its own in this series, and then some. The Vikes are 4-3-1 in the last eight meetings and the underdog has cashed in three consecutive matchups between these two teams. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
11-20-21 | Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech | Top | 23-0 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
CFB Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma State minus the points over Texas Tech at 8 pm et on Saturday. Oklahoma State hasn't received the same attention as big brother Oklahoma this season but perhaps it should. The Cowboys have lost just one game all season and they covered the number in that narrow three-point loss on the road against Iowa State. Since that loss, Oklahoma State has gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, outscoring opponents by a combined 142-23 margin along the way. Texas Tech is down to third-string quarterback Donovan Smith. He performed well in last week's big upset win over Iowa State but now that the Cowboys have some game film on him, look for them to keep the Red Raiders offense under wraps. That Cowboys defense has been among the best in the entire nation this season, holding opponents that average 4.3 yards per rush to just 2.6 ypr and passing games that average 7.6 yards per pass attempt to only 6.3 yppa. Here, the Cowboys offense should go off, noting the Red Raiders have allowed their last three opponents to complete 84-of-107 passes for over 1,000 yards through the air. They've kept opposing ground games in check for the most part lately but that's only because the opposition hasn't elected to pound away on them. Note that TCU racked up just shy of 400 rushing yards against the Red Raiders earlier this season. Here, we'll note that Texas Tech is just 10-22 ATS the last 32 times it has come off an upset win in-conference. Worse still, Texas Tech is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games coming off a win, outscored by 15.4 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma State (10*). | |||||||
11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Oregon at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Oregon has CFP aspirations thanks to a 9-1 record and a marquee road win over Ohio State but I expect its playoff hopes to be dashed against the Utes on Saturday night. Utah has gone undefeated at home this season and I'm confident that flawless home record will remain unblemished when it's all said and done on Saturday. The Ducks caught lightning in a bottle in that early season win over the Buckeyes. Line those two teams up again now and I'm confident we would see Ohio State prevail in convincing fashion. Utah has faced a tougher Pac-12 slate in my opinion with its lone conference loss coming on the road against Oregon State. Since that defeat it has gone a perfect 3-0, scoring a whopping 134 points in the process. The Utes aren't likely to get bullied at the line of scrimmage the way Oregon's recent opponent have. Keep in mind, the Ducks are taking a step up in class after facing Colorado, Washington and Washington State over their last three games. I think we'll see the Utes force the Ducks to throw the football more than they would like in this contest, noting that Oregon has completed 17 or fewer passes in six of its 10 games this season while Utah has limited opponents that average 7.3 yards per pass attempt to just 6.4 yppa this season. Take Utah (9*). | |||||||
11-20-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Liberty OVER 53 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana-Lafayette and Liberty at 4 pm et on Saturday. I believe this game could turn out to be one of the most entertaining on Saturday's entire college football board as the Ragin' Cajuns travel to face the Liberty Flames. Louisiana-Lafayette has actually been one of the best 'under' bets in the nation this season but as a result, we've seen the books over-adjust and now we're starting to see value shifting the other way, noting that last week's game sailed 'over' the total by eight points. While the Ragin' Cajuns do like to run the football, I see this as a smash spot for them through the air as Liberty simply hasn't faced many strong passing attacks this season. In the Flames most recent game they couldn't do anything to stop Ole Miss through the air as the Rebels completed 20-of-27 passes for 324 yards in an ultra-efficient, yet not overly high-scoring 27-14 victory. Of course, if the Ragin' Cajuns choose to pound away on the ground they should have success as well, noting that Liberty has been torched (no pun intended) for nearly 800 rushing yards over its last four games alone. On the flip side, the Flames are certainly a better offensive team than they showed against Ole Miss two weeks ago. This is a team that put up a whopping 202 points over its previous five contests before the loss to the Rebels. While Louisiana-Lafayette's defense looks good statistically, it has also faced a littany of weak offensive squads in recent weeks. When these two teams last met two years ago it was no contest as Louisana-Lafayette rolled to a 35-14 win. The Ragin' Cajuns were two-touchdown favorites in that game. The talent gap has certainly narrowed since then, and I fully expect to see Liberty get in on the act here as well. Take the over (9*). | |||||||
11-20-21 | Georgia Tech +18 v. Notre Dame | 0-55 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Notre Dame at 2:30 pm et on Saturday. No one is expecting Georgia Tech to put up much of a fight in this game as it checks in off four consecutive losses - its Bowl hopes dashed following last week's home defeat at the hands of Boston College. With a likely beating at the hands of in-state rival Georgia on deck next week, this essentially becomes the Yellow Jackets Bowl game, in front of a national audience in South Bend as they look to play spoiler against an Irish squad that has CFP aspirations. While the season hasn't exactly gone as the Yellow Jackets would have hoped, save for a blowout loss against Pitt in early October they've been in virtually every game. The Pitt loss marks their only defeat by more than 11 points this season. Notre Dame has rolled past its last two opponents but easy wins have been few and far between in South Bend this season. The Irish defeated Toledo by three, Purdue by 14, lost to Cincinnati, USC by 15 and North Carolina by 10. You get the picture. I simply feel the Irish are being asked to lay too many points in this matchup against a Georgia Tech squad that is capable of putting up plenty of points on offense and isn't as bad as it looked last week on defense. Here, we'll note that the Irish are a woeful 9-26 ATS in their last 35 games after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS, outscoring opponents by just 5.9 points on average in that situation. Take Georgia Tech (9*). | |||||||
11-20-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Western Kentucky -10 | Top | 17-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Sun Belt Game of the Month. My selection is on Western Kentucky minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 12 noon et on Saturday. Florida Atlantic's recent dominance in this series combined with the fact that the Owls are 'desperate' for a win to become Bowl eligible is keeping this pointspread in a very reasonable range on Saturday. Keep in mind, 'desperation' doesn't always lead to victory. I think Western Kentucky is the vastly superior team in this matchup and expect the Hilltoppers to win this one going away. At a modest 6-4 on the season, the Hilltoppers are flying well beneath most bettors' radar. They got off to a tough 1-4 start this season but that had everything to do with a difficult non-conference schedule that included competitive road games against the likes of Army and Michigan State. WKU also took nationally-ranked UTSA down to the wire in a wild 52-46 affair back in early October. Here, we find the Hilltoppers fresh off five consecutive victories, going 4-1 ATS along the way. The wheels have come off for Florida Atlantic over the last couple of games as it has dropped consecutive games in blowout fashion against Marshall and Old Dominion. While FAU has taken the last four meetings in this series it's worth noting that it was favored in all four games. Different story here. Look for Western Kentucky to keep rolling at home. Take Western Kentucky (10*). | |||||||
11-19-21 | San Diego State v. UNLV +11 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over San Diego State at 11:30 pm et on Friday. San Diego State continues to climb the national rankings but the Aztecs have been anything but a solid bet lately, going 0-2-1 ATS over their last three games. Their last ATS victory came in a narrow six-point win over Air Force. They haven't won a game by more than a touchdown since back on October 9th against lowly New Mexico. UNLV checks in off consecutive victories - its only two wins of the season. Despite their poor overall record, I think the Rebels have made significant progress this season - their 6-4 ATS mark speaks to that. Save for a 48-3 beatdown at the hands of Iowa State back in mid-September, the Rebels have played a competitive brand of football here at Allegiant Stadium, losing a pair of games by a touchdown or less and defeating Hawaii by two touchdowns last week. Here, UNLV will be looking for revenge following a 34-6 beatdown at the hands of the Aztecs last season. Note that the last time these two teams met in Las Vegas, the Rebels easily stayed inside the number in a three-point loss. I look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least as well. Take UNLV (10*). | |||||||
11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons +7 | Top | 25-0 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over New England at 8:20 pm et on Thursday. I really think the spot to back the Patriots was last Sunday at home against the Browns. Here, the Pats enter riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak and most feel that a victory over the down-trodden Falcons is a foregone conclusion. I'm not so easily convinced. We've seen the Pats struggle indoors over the years, particularly of late. It's easy to forget that New England won by only three points as an eight-point favorite against the lowly Texans in Houston earlier this season (the Pats also won by a field goal in an indoor game against the Chargers in L.A. back on Halloween). The Falcons couldn't have looked much worse than they did in last Sunday's 43-3 loss to the Cowboys in Dallas (we took a tough loss with the 'over' after the first half saw 39 points scored). While I'm not particularly high on the Falcons in the long-term picture, I am willing to give them somewhat of a pass for last Sunday's awful performance as they were quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time against a Cowboys squad coming off a stunning blowout home loss against the Broncos (while the Falcons were in a clear letdown spot off a big upset win over the division-rival Saints in New Orleans). Speaking of the division, Atlanta checks in just two games back of the NFC South-leading Bucs. With only two of four second-place teams in the NFC sporting winning records, the playoffs are still very much in play for the Falcons, believe it or not. Let's also keep in mind, they haven't lost consecutive games since Weeks 1 and 2. While the Atlanta offense is banged up and may not have the services of RB/WR hybrid Cordarrelle Patterson, the defense is arguably as healthy as any unit in the entire league. Off an embarrassing performance last Sunday, look for the Falcons defense to hold up well against a Pats offense that just isn't as good as it looked in Sunday's rout of the Browns. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
11-17-21 | Northern Illinois -1 v. Buffalo | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Northern Illinois minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Buffalo crushed Northern Illinois by 19 points as a 14.5-point favorite in this matchup last year. Let's face it, the 2020 college football season was a unique one, particularly in the MAC where teams only got a chance to play a few games. Here, I look for the Huskies to go right back to dominating the Bulls, noting that prior to last year's matchup they had taken each of the last seven meetings in this series this decade. Buffalo has been a major disappointment this season, at least in my opinion. The Bulls entered the campaign with high hopes, loaded with returning talent, particularly on the offensive side of the football. Unfortunately, the Bulls season got derailed early with four losses in their first six games, posting just one win against FBS opposition along the way (that win came in a non-cover on the road against a weak Old Dominion squad). Their season continues to circle the drain off lopsided losses against Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio and I don't see them picking themselves up off the mat against Northern Illinois. The Huskies have Bowl aspirations, having already gained eligibility with seven wins on the campaign. They enter this contest having gone 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS over their last seven contests. With a win here, Northern Illinois would wrap up the MAC West division and assure itself of a place in the MAC Championship Game. I certainly don't think the Huskies will want to leave anything to chance with a home date against a 'better than its record indicates' Western Michigan squad next week. Take Northern Illinois (10*). | |||||||
11-16-21 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH UNDER 51.5 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
CFB MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Bowling Green and Miami-Ohio at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The last time these two teams met almost two years ago to the day we saw a closing total of 47.5 points in a game that snuck just below that number. I believe we're dealing with a higher number here largely due to the recent wild, high-scoring results we've seen in these weeknight MAC tilts. In fact, the 'over' has cashed in each of Bowling Green's last five games while the 'over' is a perfect 2-0 in Miami-Ohio's last two contests. I look for a reversal of that trend here. Bowling Green's offense came crashing back to Earth last week following a 56-point outburst against Buffalo the previous week. Last Wednesday we saw the Eagles score just 17 points in a blowout loss at Toledo. Note that the Eagles have been held to 21 or fewer pass completions in five straight games, topping 16 completions only twice over that stretch. They're averaging just 6.5 yards per pass attempt against opponents that allow an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt this season. Their running game hasn't been any better but I do expect them to lean on their ground attack in an effort to effectively shorten this contest as a big underdog on Tuesday night. Miami-Ohio scored a season-high 45 points in last week's win over Buffalo. It had previously topped out at 34 points this season. There's no question the Redhawks strength is on the defensive side of the football, noting that they've allowed 18 points or less in four of six conference games so far this season. While they did put up 45 points last week, that was on the strength of four Buffalo turnovers. Bowling Green has struggled this season but actually checks in having turned the football over only four times over its last four games combined. Finally, I'll note that the 'under' has gone an incredible 18-3 the last 21 times Miami-Ohio has come off consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 47.3 points in that situation. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-16-21 | Western Michigan -5.5 v. Eastern Michigan | 21-22 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Western Michigan minus the points over Eastern Michigan at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. With both of these teams performing horribly on the defensive side of the football in recent weeks, this play really comes down to which team I think can bounce back in that regard on Tuesday night. As far as I'm concerned, it's Western Michigan that boasts the far more talented defense, while also possessing an offense that is better than it showed (which is saying something) in last week's closer-than-expected 45-40 over lowly Akron. Note that Western Michigan had absolutely dominated this series prior to the last two years in which Eastern Michigan staged upset wins as nine and 13.5-point underdogs. Needless to say, the Broncos will be out for revenge here, while also trying to keep their faint hopes of a MAC West title alive. They're currently sitting in a tie for last place but only two games back of division-leading Northern Illinois, which they will face in next week's regular season finale. Its chances are slim to be sure, but expect the Broncos to put forth a strong effort regardless. Keep in mind, while EMU was beating up on the likes of UMass and Texas State (among others) during its non-conference slate, WMU went toe-to-toe with Michigan, Pittsburgh and San Jose State, even staging an outright upset of Pitt, on the road no less. In other words, these two teams may have identical overall records, but I certainly consider the Broncos to be the superior team, initially a consensus pick to finish second in the MAC West. Likely headed to a Bowl game and with the aforementioned faint hope of reaching the MAC title game, everything is technically still in front of WMU. EMU still has plenty to play for but doesn't really control its own destiny with its regular season finale coming against Central Michigan next week. Take Western Michigan (8*). | |||||||
11-14-21 | Eagles +2.5 v. Broncos | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday. The Eagles may have lost last week (we cashed a ticket fading them with the Chargers) but this is a team that has made progress over its last couple of games, starting with that dominating performance in Detroit two weeks ago (we won with the Eagles in that game). Each of Philadelphia's three victories this season have come on the road and I believe they're well-positioned to pick up another win in Denver on Sunday. The Broncos are coming off a stunning blowout win in Dallas last Sunday. Here, they'll be trying for their second three-game winning streak of the season as they inexplicably hang around in the AFC West race. This isn't a team that has great prospects for the rest of the season, however, not with all of their key injuries (and departures) on the defensive side of the football. I think they're going to have to put up plenty of points to earn a win here on Sunday but we've actually seen their offense regress (believe it or not after last week's outburst in Dallas), with QB Teddy Bridgewater completing just 38 passes over the last two games and throwing for 217 yards or less in three straight contests. The Eagles have given up a very high completion percentage in recent weeks but aren't giving up a ton of yardage relatively speaking. They've held opponents to 6.9 yards per pass attempt this season (and 4.0 yards per rush). A brutal schedule has certainly contributed to the Eagles going 3-6 through their first nine games but it lightens up from here. After hosting the Saints next week, Philadelphia will face the Giants (twice), Jets and Washington (twice) over its next five contests. In other words, there's no reason to throw in the towel just yet. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
11-14-21 | Browns v. Patriots UNDER 45.5 | 7-45 | Loss | -116 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and New England at 1 pm et on Sunday. Both of these teams will enter this game confident that they can lean on running the football and playing tough defense to earn a much-needed victory on Sunday afternoon. Don't be misled by the Browns wild, high-scoring 41-16 rout of Cincinnati last week. The Bengals simply didn't take care of the football in that game and Cleveland took full advantage. It's not as if the Browns offense had to do much of the heavy lifting in that contest. They gained just 361 total yards and completed only 14 passes in the victory. New England somewhat inexplicably had a four-game 'over' streak going prior to last week's low-scoring affair against the Panthers. Note that they've racked up well north of 30 rushing attempts in three straight games while completing 18 or fewer passes in three of their last four games overall. Running the football on offense - and effectively shortening the game - while playing stout defense is a formula that has worked for Bill Bellichick this season and I can't see him straying from that in this very manageable matchup with the Browns. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Browns have come off a win by 21 points or more, resulting in an average total of only 32.8 points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 11-3 in the Patriots last 14 games where the total has been set between 42.5 and 49 points, as is the case here, producing an average total of 42.7 points in that situation. Take the under (8*). | |||||||
11-14-21 | Bills -11.5 v. Jets | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
NFL Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday. The setup doesn't get much better than this as the Bills come off an ugly loss in Jacksonville last Sunday and now head back to the AFC East for a division road game against the Jets in the Meadowlands. The Jets were the 'flavor of the month' so to speak after they delivered a huge upset win as a double-digit underdog at home against the Bengals two weeks ago. Any positive momentum gained from that victory is long gone now after they dropped a blowout decision that wasn't even as close as the 45-30 final score indicated in Indianapolis a week ago Thursday. QB Mike White had the gall to suggest that he believes he should have been a first overall pick at a press conference this week. Just a little more bulletin board material for a Bills defense that will be looking to tee off on Sunday afternoon. Note that Buffalo has allowed just 13.2 points on average the last 11 times it has come off a loss. Speaking of teeing off, the Bills offense should 'go off' after QB Josh Allen was upstaged by his namesake on the Jaguars defense last Sunday. That poor performance does nothing to change the fact that the Bills boast one of the most talented and creative offenses in the league under coordinator Brian Daboll and I fully expect them to respond with a monster performance against a Jets defense that just got roasted by the Colts balanced attack last week. On the flip side, after scoring 30+ points in consecutive games, New York's offense is in for a wake-up call here. Lost in last week's defeat at the hands of the Jags was the fact that Buffalo allowed only nine points on 218 yards of total offense, despite being put in tough situations all afternoon long. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
11-14-21 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 54.5 | Top | 3-43 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
NFC Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Dallas at 1 pm et on Sunday. We ended up just missing with the 'over' in the Cowboys stunning blowout loss to the Broncos here last week but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this Sunday as Dallas hosts Atlanta. The Falcons are in a clear letdown spot after a wild upset win over the Saints in New Orleans last Sunday. While I don't expect Atlanta to notch a second straight underdog victory here, I do think it can contribute enough offense to help this one 'over' the total. The Cowboys have been vulnerable against tight ends this season and the Falcons obviously have a good one in rookie Kyle Pitts. We've seen Falcons veteran QB Matt Ryan settle in a little bit in recent weeks, save for an ugly defensive slugfest against the Panthers, and here I think we can have confidence that we'll see him bomb away, noting that he's thrown for 325 yards or more in three of the last four contests. On the flip side, the Cowboys offense is set to eat against a very beatable Falcons defense on Sunday. We did see Dak Prescott and the offense round into form late in last week's loss, even if that had more to do with game script playing from well behind than anything else. We know that this offense is far better than it showed in that game against Denver - I think the argument can be made that the Cowboys overlooked a Broncos squad that was ravaged with injuries and had just dealt away its best defensive player in Von Miller. The 'under' has now cashed in each of Dallas' last two games but that's not a sustainable trend in my opinion. Note that the 'over' is 13-2 the last 15 times the Cowboys have come off an upset home loss by two touchdowns or more. Over the last 2+ seasons we've seen Dallas post a 9-1 o/u record when coming off an upset loss of any kind, with that situation producing an average total of 59.7 points. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-13-21 | Southern Miss v. UTSA -33 | 17-27 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on UTSA minus the points over Southern Miss at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. We went against Southern Miss last Saturday and were rewarded with a lopsided North Texas victory as the Mean Green Eagles easily covered the short pointspread. Here, we're dealing with a much larger spread, but also a much bigger mismatch. Southern Miss' season is circling the drain and has been for the last two months. The Golden Eagles have lost seven straight games both SU and ATS. Their lone victory this season came against FCS opponent Grambling in a game they were favored by more than three touchdowns. UTSA is enjoying a dream season, reeling off nine straight victories while going 8-1 ATS along the way. The Roadrunners have been explosive on offense, averaging 4.6 yards per rush and 8.2 yards per pass attempt while also dominating the conference defensively, giving up just 2.7 yards per rush. They have been somewhat vulnerable against the pass, giving up 7.2 yards per pass attempt but Southern Miss is unlikely to take advantage, noting that the Eagles have 41-of-82 (50%) of their passes for only 332 yards over their last three games and that stretch included a pair of weak defensive teams in Middle Tennessee State and North Texas. I see this as an ideal spot to fade Southern Miss once again as it comes off a rare game where it didn't turn the football over. On the flip side, UTSA didn't force a single turnover in last week's rout of UTEP after forcing at least two in each of its previous six contests. Take UTSA (9*). | |||||||
11-13-21 | East Carolina v. Memphis OVER 59 | 30-29 | Push | 0 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between East Carolina and Memphis at 12 noon et on Saturday. The 'under' has cashed in each of East Carolina's last four games and each of Memphis' last three contests entering Saturday's matchup between these two AAC squads. I expect a different story to unfold here as this contest has serious shootout potential. East Carolina has benefited from playing from ahead in the last couple of weeks, rolling to lopsided wins over South Florida and Temple. I'm not sure the Pirates will be so fortunate here and fully expect them to be bombing away for much of the afternoon. Game script has allowed the Memphis defense to hold up just fine in recent weeks but I still consider that unit to be among the weakest in the conference, perhaps even the country. Keep in mind, this is the same Tigers squad that gave up 50 points against Arkansas State and 34 points against Temple earlier this season. Meanwhile, the Memphis offense has been held down by Central Florida and SMU over the last two contests but should bust loose here, noting that East Carolina has allowed 5.0 yards per rush and 8.1 yards per pass play on the road this season. Take the over (10*). | |||||||
11-13-21 | Rutgers v. Indiana -7 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
CFB Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Rutgers at 12 noon et on Saturday. Few teams have faced a tougher schedule than Indiana this season. Save for a Week 2 home date against Idaho - a game the Hoosiers won 56-14 - Indiana has gone up against the best the Big Ten has to offer including matchups with Iowa, Penn State, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan. Even the Hoosiers non-conference tilts - aside from the game against Idaho - have been difficult as the Hoosiers faced Cincinnati and Western Kentucky, winning the latter contest. Now the Hoosiers finally get a break as they host Rutgers on Saturday afternoon. The Scarlet Knights have just one win in their last six games and that came against one of the Big Ten's worst teams, Illinois. Rutgers got beat down physically in last week's 52-3 rout at Wisconsin. It has now been held to 13 points or less in five of its last six games. This series hasn't been particularly close with Indiana taking five straight meetings, with the last two coming by a combined 72-21 margin in 2019-2020. While it could be argued that the Hoosiers have nothing to play for at this point with their Bowl hopes having already been dashed, they should relish the role of playing spoiler as they can strike a major blow to the Scarlet Knights Bowl aspirations with a victory on Saturday. Keep in mind, Indiana has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite going back to last season, outscoring opponents by a ridiculous 35.1 points on average in that situation. Take Indiana (10*). | |||||||
11-12-21 | Wyoming v. Boise State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 16 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Wyoming and Boise State at 9 pm et on Friday. Few pay much attention to the Wyoming Cowboys and perhaps rightfully so at this point as they've fizzled with four losses in their last five games. For those that are paying attention, though, they know that the Cowboys can play some defense. That unit has remained healthy this season and it's loaded with experience and talent. The results on the field have bared that out as they've allowed 27 points or less in all but one of their games (consider that wild 50-43 victory over Northern Illinois back in Week 2 an aberration). They're allowing only 4.2 yards per rush and a staggering 5.7 yards per pass attempt. Boise State certainly offers a stiff challenge after putting up 40 points on the road against Fresno State last time out but it's not as if the Broncos have been consistently lighting up the scoreboard this season. Note that Boise State has been held to 28 points or less in five of its last seven games. The Broncos enter this contest playing some of their best defensive football of the season, having held three of their last four opponents under 20 points. Not surprisingly, the 'under' cashed in all four of those games. Wyoming hasn't taken major strides forward offensively this season and we know the Broncos can contain that unit, noting that they've allowed a grand total of just 54 points in the last four meetings in this series. Both teams like to run the football, which obviously helps keep the clock moving and supports our cause with the 'under'. Note that Wyoming checks in having topped out at 15 pass completions in a game this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 54-35 in Wyoming's last 89 games a road underdog and 61-40 in Boise State's last 101 contests as a home favorite. Take the under (10*). | |||||||
11-11-21 | North Carolina +7 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 23-30 | Push | 0 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
CFB ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on North Carolina plus the points over Pittsburgh at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Tar Heels are coming off their biggest win of the season last Saturday as they rallied to defeat Wake Forest, essentially keeping their hopes of reaching a Bowl game alive. Riding the high of that comeback victory, I think getting right back on the field on a short week is the best thing for the Tar Heels right now. They're in desperate need of a spark having yet to post consecutive wins this season but I think they have a shot at it here. Pitt hasn't traditionally had an overwhelming home field advantage, playing its home games at an NFL stadium in Heinz Field. The Panthers have already lost two home games this season, against MAC squad Western Michigan and a bumbling Miami Hurricanes team. Here, Pitt will be looking to register a second straight win over North Carolina after defeating the Tar Heels back in 2019. Wins have been few-and-far-between for the Panthers in this series, however, and I believe they'll be hard-pressed to win, let alone cover the lofty pointspread here. Here, we'll note that North Carolina is 34-17 ATS the last 51 times it has come off four or five ATS losses in its last six games, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.8 points in that situation. Take North Carolina (10*). | |||||||
11-10-21 | Kent State +3 v. Central Michigan | 30-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kent State plus the points over Central Michigan at 8 pm et on Wednesday. We haven't been involved with a side in any Kent State game since back in late September when we faded the Golden Flashes in a road game against Maryland. The Terps rolled to a three-touchdown win on that day. That wrapped up a tough two-game trip that saw the Flashes face Iowa as well. Since taking their lumps in those two blowout losses, we've seen the Flashes take off, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in MAC play. I look for them to improve on those records here. Central Michigan is in an ideal fade spot coming off a big upset win on the road against Northern Illinois last week. The Chippewas were buoyed by a pair of punt return touchdowns from do-it-all WR Khalil Pimpleton after falling behind by two touchdowns early on. I'm more confident in Kent State's ability to keep its foot on the gas should it build a lead in this one. It's hard not to like what head coach Sean Lewis has done with the Flashes since taking over three years ago. Since going 2-10 in his first season, Kent State has now gone 15-11 SU over its last 26 games, including a win in the Frisco Bowl in 2019 (no Bowl eligibility last year as Kent State played only four games due to Covid). With a win here the Flashes can become Bowl eligible once again. Note that Kent State is as healthy as any team in the country right now and I'm confident we'll see it step up in this big conference road tilt on Wednesday, noting that home field advantage has meant little in this series going way back over the years with the road team winning five of the last seven meetings. Take Kent State (10*). |
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