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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-07-21||Chiefs v. Bucs +3||9-31||Win||100||21 h 27 m||Show|
My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Kansas City at 6:30 pm et on Sunday.
I'm actually surprised at how popular of a pick the Chiefs seem to be entering Super Bowl Sunday. With that being said, I can't help but think the books are begging for Kansas City action with this line sitting at a field goal. The public hasn't been behind Tom Brady's Bucs at all in these playoffs, and that doesn't appear to be changing here. Brady has looked as relaxed and confident as he has at any stage of his career during this playoff run. It certainly seems as if the Bucs as a team are getting stronger with each passing game. The Chiefs have looked invincible for much of the last two seasons but I think they're going to be up against it on Sunday. When it comes to the NFL it's tough to bet against a 'team of destiny' as the Bucs certainly appear to be. Take Tampa Bay (10*).
|01-24-21||Bills v. Chiefs -3||24-38||Win||100||11 h 28 m||Show|
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 6:40 pm et on Sunday.
I'll lay the points with the Chiefs here. I predicted a Chiefs-Packers Super Bowl prior to the playoffs and I'm not going to waver from that decision here. Yes, the Bills have impressed. Not just in the playoffs but all season long. Yes, they're a formidable opponent capable of giving Kansas City all it can handle on Sunday night. With that being said, I simply feel the Buffalo defense can, and will, be exposed and exploited by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Mahomes is obviously banged-up, dealing with a concussion and a toe injury. There are plenty of doubters out there that don't believe Mahomes can be as effective in this game. Even if he is somewhat limited, I'll still take him over a beatable defense and in the worst case, expect Andy Reid to gameplan around Mahomes limitations. All told, it serves to give us a very reasonable pointspread to work with. Take Kansas City (10*).
|01-16-21||Rams v. Packers -6.5||Top||18-32||Win||100||52 h 47 m||Show|
NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:35 pm et on Saturday.
Full disclosure - the Packers were my pick to win the Super Bowl prior to the NFL Playoffs getting underway last weekend. Here, I won't hesitate to back them laying a very reasonable number against the Rams. I'll give plenty of credit to the Rams for outlasting the Seahawks last Saturday. Los Angeles took advantage of a disjointed Seattle offense that took a turn for the worse past the midway point of the season and never really turned it back around - ultimately its downfall in my opinion. QB Jared Goff certainly didn't look healthy in last Saturday's win, with very little zip on any of his passes. He's probably the Rams best option again this week, however, after backup John Wolford suffered a scary head/neck injury last Saturday. Los Angeles will once again rely on its defense to win this football game - I'm just not convinced it can shut down the Packers vaunted offense the way it did the Seahawks. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers looks like he's having as much fun as he has at any point of his long illustrious career. This is a better offense than most give it credit for in my opinion. Defensively, the Packers do have some holes up front but I'm not sure the Rams have the offense to take advantage. Look for Green Bay's rock solid secondary to be the real difference maker in this contest. They'll give up some yardage over the middle to slot man Cooper Kupp, but outside of that, I look for them to lock down this inconsistent Rams 'O'. Take Green Bay (10*).
|01-03-21||Seahawks -6.5 v. 49ers||26-23||Loss||-112||23 h 42 m||Show|
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over San Francisco at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
The 49ers delivered a stunning upset win over the Cardinals last Saturday leading some to believe they may offer some value in an underdog role against the Seahawks here this week. I don't believe that's the case, however, as we should see San Francisco effectively fold the tent against a motivated Seahawks squad that is absolutely rolling heading into Week 17. While Seattle has leaned heavily on its defense to win games in recent weeks, this is a prime breakout spot for its offense against a 49ers defense that has been injury-ravaged all season long and can't have much left in the tank at this point. Meanwhile, a number of the 49ers key cogs on offense will sit this one out, leaving QB C.J. Beathard in tough against a still-surging Seahawks defense. Look for Seattle to be able to take the air out of the football in the fourth quarter of this one as it imposes its will and ultimately posts a comfortable win. Take Seattle (10*).
|01-03-21||Ravens -13.5 v. Bengals||Top||38-3||Win||100||20 h 37 m||Show|
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.
We won with the Ravens in their blowout victory over the Giants last Sunday - our second time winning with them in the last three games - and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again as they hit the road to face the Bengals in Week 17 action on Sunday. As I noted in last week's analysis, Baltimore's bandwagon effectively cleared during a three-game Covid-induced slide in late November-early December. Since then all the Ravens have done is get healthy and go a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four contests. Now they draw another favorable matchup against the Bengals, who are in a clear letdown spot off last week's offensive eruption against a hapless Texans defense. Despite winning consecutive games in improbable fashion, the Bengals were actually shredded for nearly seven yards per rush by the Steelers and Texans over the last two weeks. The Ravens should have little trouble continuing that trend here. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense has rounded back into the form we saw earlier in the season and is in line for another productive day against a Bengals offense that isn't nearly as good as it looked last week. The Ravens had no trouble disposing of the Bengals by a 27-3 score the last time they squared off. Expect another lopsided result here. Take Baltimore (10*).
|12-27-20||Giants v. Ravens -9.5||13-27||Win||100||17 h 31 m||Show|
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.
It seems that most bettors abandoned the Ravens weeks ago but those who have stuck around have been handsomely rewarded as they've reeled off three straight wins and covers over the last three weeks. Here, they appear primed to deliver another lopsided victory, this time at the expense of the up and down Giants. Baltimore endured plenty of adversity due to Covid earlier this season but now find themselves in terrific shape with most of their key cogs on both sides of the football rested and (relatively) healthy. The same can't be said for the Giants, who have had numerous players in and out of the lineup, including QB Daniel Jones who remains less than 100% healthy entering this contest. That stunning upset win in Seattle back on December 6th (we won with New York in that game) may end up being the high point in an otherwise disappointing campaign. We're being asked to lay plenty of points in this contest, but I believe the line could be even higher. Take Baltimore (10*).
|12-26-20||49ers v. Cardinals -5||20-12||Loss||-105||19 h 11 m||Show|
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over San Francisco at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.
This sets up as an ideal matchup for the surging Cardinals, who will be aiming for their third straight victory on Saturday afternoon. The 49ers are likely to be in tough with third-string QB C.J. Beathard taking over under center. He's had plenty of chances as an NFL quarterback and has generally failed miserably. There's little reason to expect a great deal of improvement here with the 49ers offense quite simply broken in what has amounted to a lost season due to injuries and otherwise. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray lit up the 49ers back in Week 1 and projects to do the same here in Week 16 with the Niners missing both Richard Sherman and Jimmie Ward, two key cogs in their secondary. We haven't backed the Cards often this season but this is an ideal spot laying a very reasonable number at home against a Niners squad that's simply playing out the string. Take Arizona (10*).
|12-21-20||Steelers -14 v. Bengals||Top||17-27||Loss||-115||26 h 8 m||Show|
AFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cincinnati at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
I can understand bettors being hesitant to back the Steelers laying all of those points off back-to-back subpar performances against Washington and Buffalo. However, I expect to see Pittsburgh win this game in a walk as it catches a favorable 'get right' matchup against the lowly Bengals on Monday Night Football. A real key here should be the Bengals absolute inability to get after opposing quarterbacks. Particularly at this stage of his career, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is at his best when afforded time to operate in the backfield, and he should face very little pressure against the Bengals, giving him ample time to find his dynamic wide receiving corps downfield. I'm not convinced we'll see Pittsburgh gain a whole lot of headway on the ground in this one, but that's just fine as it will force it to take to the air where it should feast on a weak Cincinnati secondary that has been torched by big plays time and time again this season. This is a nightmare matchup for the Bengals injury-ravaged offense. They'll turn to QB Ryan Finley here. If you can believe it, he represents a step down from Brandon Allen, who was unable to accomplish anything positive since standout rookie Joe Burrow went down to injury. Finley will be charged with the unenviable task of operating behind an offensive line that has been among the worst in the league at protecting the quarterback. Only one team has allowed more sacks this season. Cincinnati will simply be looking to keep this one respectable but I think it will be hard-pressed to stay inside the number. Take Pittsburgh (10*).
|12-20-20||Lions v. Titans -9||Top||25-46||Win||100||23 h 16 m||Show|
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Detroit at 1 pm et on Sunday.
A lot of bettors jumped off the Titans bandwagon following their ugly home loss to the Browns two weeks ago but not us as we cashed Tennessee in last week's rout of the Jaguars. At the same time, we also faded the Lions but unfortunately just missed cashing that ticket thanks to a back-door Lions cover against Green Bay. Here, I won't hesitate to fade Detroit again as it hits the road for a poor matchup against a playoff-bound Titans squad. Tennessee enjoyed a true 'get right' performance in Jacksonville last Sunday and should enter this game brimming with confidence. With the Lions doing nothing to stop or even slow opposing ground attacks, Titans monster RB Derrick Henry should absolutely feast in this game. Meanwhile, QB Ryan Tannehill found his rhythm again in last Sunday's victory and should enjoy another solid day against an injury-ravaged Lions secondary. Ordinarily I would be fairly high on Lions veteran backup QB Chase Daniel (who is expected to start in place of an injured Matt Stafford) but right now Detroit's offense is simply too banged-up with WR Kenny Golladay still sidelined and a potential gaping hole on the offensive line with C Frank Ragnow having suffered a brutal throat injury last week. Take Tennessee (10*).
|12-20-20||Patriots +2 v. Dolphins||Top||12-22||Loss||-113||23 h 7 m||Show|
AFC East Game of the Year. My selection is on New England plus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.
It's not easy to back the Patriots these days but I do believe they warrant support in Sunday's trip to Miami to face the Dolphins. New England's offense is obviously a shell of its former self but the good news here is that you can run on Miami. I'm confident we'll see the Pats stay run-heavy with QB Cam Newton and their stable of running backs in this one and do all they can to stay away from the Dolphins stout secondary. This is precisely the type of game where New England should be able to impose its will not only with its ground game but also with its still-underrated defense. Miami is expected to be without a couple of key cogs offensively with TE Mike Gesicki and WR Jakeem Grant banged-up and questionable to play. Even if they can go it remains to be seen whether they'll be on a snap count or overly effective. QB Tua Tagovailoa threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns last week but completed just 28-of-48 passes and threw an interception and was sacked four times. He benefited from game flow in the fourth quarter of that contest as the Fins were behind by virtually three touchdowns and the Chiefs defense softened considerably. Few will have much interest in backing the Pats off last week's embarrassing nationally-televised blowout loss to the Rams. We'll go the contrarian route here. Take New England (10*).
|12-17-20||Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders||Top||30-27||Win||100||36 h 19 m||Show|
TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Las Vegas at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
I'll grab the points with the Chargers on Thursday night as they head to Las Vegas looking to win back-to-back games for the first time this season. They're catching the Raiders at the right time as Las Vegas has dropped three of its last four games, with its lone victory over that stretch coming by way of a last second hail mary against the still-winless Jets. With Rod Marinelli taking over the defensive reins there's hope that the Raiders can turn things around on that side of the football but playing on a short week, with a number of key cogs banged-up it's highly unlikely we'll see much improvement. Meanwhile, on offense the Raiders continue to trudge along with RB Josh Jacobs less than 100% healthy and now without deep threat WR Henry Ruggs as he was placed on the Covid list. While Ruggs hasn't been a true gamebreaker this season, he does have the ability to stretch out opposing defenses and will be one less downfield threat for the Chargers defense to worry about on Thursday night. Los Angeles is mired in another disappointing season under seemingly clueless head coach Anthony Lynn. With that being said, the Chargers are off a 20-17 win over the Falcons last Sunday with their defense showing signs of turning the corner with Joey Bosa back on the field in recent weeks. There's a lot to like when it comes to the Chargers offense, especially now that RB Austin Ekeler is back. He led the team in rushing and receiving in last week's victory and should be the focal point of the offense again here. This is another showcase game for rookie QB Justin Herbert and I certainly feel he has more upside than Raiders QB Derek Carr at this point. Take Los Angeles (10*).
|12-14-20||Ravens -3 v. Browns||Top||47-42||Win||100||24 h 14 m||Show|
MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cleveland at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
I believe this line will prove far too short as the Ravens look to beat up on the division rival Browns once again on Monday night. Baltimore enjoyed a perfect 'get right' matchup against the Cowboys last Tuesday night, cruising to a lopsided victory. That game gave all of those Ravens that missed time due to Covid protocols to shake off the rust and get back into game action leading into this key showdown with the Browns. Baltimore is virtually back at full strength now with TE Mark Andrews a key piece returning to the offense on Monday night in Cleveland. I look for the Ravens passing game in particular to feast on a Browns pass defense that will once again be without its anchor CB Denzel Ward. You certainly can't sleep on Cleveland these days as the Browns have undoubtedly exceeded expectations and played excellent football this season. But the fact remains they've faced a rather soft schedule and while last week's victory in Tennessee was impressive, QB Baker Mayfield is still best-suited as a game manager but I'm not sure he'll be afforded that opportunity here should the Browns fall behind (as I expect). The Ravens have been tough on opposing running backs and get healthier on the defensive side of the football this week. Look for them to do a better job than most at containing the dynamic RB duo of Hunt and Chubb and take the Browns out of their preferred gameplan. This is a showcase game for Ravens QB Lamar Jackson after failing to perform well in a number of spotlight games this season. I look for him to come up with one of his best efforts of the season. Take Baltimore (10*).
|12-13-20||Packers -8 v. Lions||Top||31-24||Loss||-105||23 h 58 m||Show|
NFC North Game of the Year. My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Detroit at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
This is a layup for the Packers, even with the Lions riding high off last week's upset win over the Bears in Chicago. Green Bay cruised to a win over the Eagles last Sunday and now hit the road for a very friendly division matchup in the Motor City. Detroit's defense is suddenly injury-ravaged, sure to miss CB Desmond Trufant in this game. We've yet to see the Lions shut down any opposing ground attacks this season, which really opens the door for a monster performance from the Packers multi-dimensional offensive attack. On the flip side, the Packers are one team that Lions QB Matt Stafford has never really figured out. With WR Kenny Golladay still sidelined, there's little reason to believe Stafford can suddenly come to life against the Packers here. While Green Bay has allowed opposing running backs to gain plenty of ground, that will likely only serve to bait Detroit into a run-first offensive gameplan here, which could lead to some long drives, but few that put 7's on the board. Take Green Bay (10*).
|12-13-20||Saints v. Eagles +8||21-24||Win||100||23 h 52 m||Show|
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over New Orleans at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
While most see this as a clear continuation of the Saints red hot run, I see it as a letdown spot coming off last week's divisional road win over the Falcons in Atlanta. In fact, this will be New Orelans' third straight road game in as many weeks - setting this up as a sneaky-tough spot against what is sure to be a highly-motivated Eagles squad coming off last week's 'close but no cigar' loss and no-cover against the Packers. Philadelphia will start Jalen Hurts at quarterback in what could only be considered a spark-inducing move at this point of the season. While Hurts draws a very tough matchup here, I do expect the Eagles to rally around him the rest of the season (assuming he holds onto the starting job). Saints QB Taysom Hill suddenly has a bit of pressure on him with Drew Brees' imminent return. While I won't go so far as to say the Eagles win this game outright, I do look for them to stay inside the number. Take Philadelphia (10*).
|12-13-20||Jets v. Seahawks -14.5||3-40||Win||100||23 h 46 m||Show|
My selection is on Seattle minus the points over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.
We won by fading the Seahawks in their upset loss to the Giants last week (we also cashed the 'under' in that game) but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Seattle laying all of those points on Sunday afternoon against the hapless Jets. New York is in full letdown mode here after inexplicably blowing a prime opportunity to win perhaps its only game of the season last Sunday against Las Vegas. Now the Jets head to the west coast without a number of key cogs on offense - and don't figure to be gift-wrapped this contest the way they were by the Raiders last week. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson finally catches a break after facing a murderer's row of defenses in recent weeks. Note that the Jets rank in the league's bottom-five in quarterback hit-rate and don't figure to put Wilson under much duress on Sunday afternoon. It's almost unthinkable to lay this many points in an NFL games these days but in this particular spot, I'm confident the Seahawks can run away and hide against a Jets squad that is quite simply playing out the string. Take Seattle (10*).
|12-13-20||Titans -7 v. Jaguars||31-10||Win||100||20 h 49 m||Show|
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.
Backing the Titans in a prime bounce-back spot off last week's beatdown at home against the Browns is not an overly difficult decision. Two of Tennessee's best offensive pieces are in line for big round performances - namely RB Derrick Henry and WR A.J. Brown - off last week's no-show (game script of course had something to do with Henry's awful day). Note that opponents are rushing for north of 150 yards per game against Jacksonville this season. While I do think the Jags can score some points in this game, I'm not convinced they can keep up with the Titans for four quarters, nor do I believe they'll be able to come up with enough big plays on defense late to get the Tennessee offense off the field. This is a key spot for Tennessee to turn the tide and given its success against the Jags over the years, there's little reason to expect its run of dominance to come to an end. Take Tennessee (10*).
|12-07-20||Washington Football Team v. Steelers -6.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-102||10 h 4 m||Show|
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Washington at 5 pm et on Monday.
We played the 'under' in the Steelers odd Wednesday afternoon matchup with a depleted Ravens squad last week but will shift gears and back the Black and Gold on Monday, as they host a suddenly-surging Washington Football Team. There's no question the Steelers are dealing with some key absences with edge rusher Bud Dupree the latest key cog to go down to injury or otherwise. RB James Conner is also expected to miss this game after a positive Covid test. With all of that being said, I like the matchup here. Pittsburgh is playing on a short week but does have the benefit of staying home. Washington has won three of its last five games overall but I think it's important to consider the way its schedule has played out this season. It opened 1-5, including a number of blowout losses against superior opponents including Arizona, Cleveland, Baltimore and Los Angeles (Rams). Since October 25th, the Football Team has faced the Cowboys, Giants, Lions, Bengals and Cowboys again, going 3-2 as mentioned earlier. While I do like some of the pieces Washington has in place, most notably WR Terry McLaurin and RB Antonio Gibson, not to mention a terrific defense. Here, however, I expect it to fall behind early, which would take it away from its preferred gameplan, which involves keeping QB Alex Smith in a game manager role. I look for the Steelers to force Washington to take to the air in this contest, which should severely hamper the Football Team's prospects of staying competitive in this game. Take Pittsburgh (10*).
|12-06-20||Giants +11 v. Seahawks||17-12||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
My selection is on New York plus the points over Seattle at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.
I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Giants as they head to the Pacific Northwest to challenge the surging Seahawks on Sunday afternoon. This line shifted once news came out that Giants QB Daniel Jones would miss this game, with journeyman Colt McCoy starting in his place. While my hopes aren't high for McCoy in this tough matchup, the G-Men have become a run-first operation anyway and I'm confident their defense can hold up well enough to keep the Seahawks within reach on Sunday. Seattle's offense has been doing just enough to win in recent weeks - no longer looking like the explosive unit we saw earlier in the season. This is a sneaky-tough matchup against a Giants defense that has been playing some of its best football and has proven to be an opportunistic group, as evidenced by last week's game-clinching fumble recovery in the final minute against Cincinnati. We've got the Giants going from nearly touchdown favorites a week ago to double-digit underdogs this week - with their playoff hopes still alive. Take New York (10*).
|12-06-20||Jaguars v. Vikings -10||24-27||Loss||-110||18 h 35 m||Show|
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.
I'll lay the points with the Vikings as they draw a favorable matchup against the lowly Jaguars on Sunday afternoon. Jacksonville's defense wasn't good to begin with and now they're dealing with a number of key injuries. With no semblance of a pass rush whatsoever, I look for Vikes QB Kirk Cousins to carve them up on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, Jacksonville got shredded for over seven yards per rush by the Browns and their run-first offense last Sunday. We can count on more of the same here as Minnesota RB Dalvin Cook will be salivating at thought of this matchup. Jags QB Mike Glennon did a nice job of nearly leading them all the way back against Cleveland last Sunday but I'm not convinced he can do enough to keep them within the number here. Take Minnesota (10*).
|11-22-20||Steelers -10 v. Jaguars||Top||27-3||Win||100||19 h 55 m||Show|
NFL Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.
We've seen the Steelers play down to the level of their competition time and time again over the years, and although they check in undefeated here in 2020, that has held true this season - most recently in a narrow victory over Dallas two weeks ago. Here, Pittsburgh draws an extremely favorable matchup against a very green Jaguars squad that is coming off back-to-back tight losses to the Texans and Packers. After narrowly missing out on upset wins in those games, I look for the dam to break, so to speak on Sunday afternoon. Note that Jacksonville is a shell of its former self on the defensive side of the football where it is generating little to no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Jags are giving up big play after big play to opposing offenses and that should continue against a steadily-improving Steelers offense here. Once Pittsburgh is able to build a sizable lead there's little reason to believe Jacksonville can come up with enough touchdown drives to stay within arm's reach. Take Pittsburgh (10*).
|11-16-20||Vikings v. Bears +3.5||19-13||Loss||-120||23 h 14 m||Show|
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Minnesota at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
It's not difficult to fade the Vikings in this spot as they lay points on the road following consecutive victories. I can't help but put the Vikes in the 'paper tiger' category and here they'll head to Chicago to face what is sure to be a highly-motivated Bears squad. Note that Chicago has proven to be the kryptonite for Vikes standout RB Dalvin Cook in recent years. Perhaps equally as notable, the Bears have been able to keep WR Adam Thielen at bay in recent meetings as well. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense is one of the league's weakest units, due to injuries and otherwise. While the Bears by no means possess an elite offensive squad, they might just enjoy a breakout performance against Minnesota here. Take Chicago (10*).
|11-15-20||Bucs -5.5 v. Panthers||Top||46-23||Win||100||22 h 30 m||Show|
NFC South Game of the Year. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday.
This is an ideal bounce-back spot for Tom Brady and the Bucs following last Sunday night's shellacking at the hands of the Saints. It doesn't take much to empty an NFL team's bandwagon, particularly from a betting perspective, and that lopsided loss certainly fit the bill. We already won with the Bucs laying points against the Panthers once this season and I won't hesitate to go back to the well in this one. Note that the Panthers defense has had a miserable time trying to apply pressure on opposing quarterbacks - truly a shell of this unit's former self. Look for Brady to stay upright for the majority of this game, and ultimately pick apart a very beatable Panthers secondary. On the flip side, the Panthers once again lost do-it-all RB Christian McCaffrey to injury - this time a shoulder - in last week's hard-fought loss in Kansas City. Now it will be up to backup Mike Davis to again shoulder the load, but the prospects of him finding much success against a Bucs run defense that allows under three yards per rush is highly unlikely. Meanwhile, Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater has only shown flashes of brilliance this season, not playing at a high level on nearly a consistent enough basis to keep Carolina in contention in the NFC South. He'll be under duress for much of this contest and even when he is given time, expect the Bucs secondary to offer blanket coverage on the Panthers average receiving corps. Take Tampa Bay (10*).
|11-02-20||Bucs v. Giants +13||Top||25-23||Win||100||12 h 17 m||Show|
NFC Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Tampa Bay at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
This week has featured a pair of primetime NFL stinkers with the Falcons outlasting the Panthers in a dull affair on Thursday and the Eagles pulling away from the Cowboys in a football horror show last night. Call me crazy, but I think we may see an entertaining affair between the Bucs and Giants on Monday night. Tampa is in a bit of a tough scheduling spot here, traveling back across the country after posting back-to-back wins over the Packers and Raiders. The Bucs have a big divisional showdown with the Saints on tap this coming Sunday so maybe they park the bus if they build a lead in this one. Meanwhile, the Giants have had an extended week of practice since falling by a single point in Philadelphia a week ago Thursday. New York has very little upside at this time but I will point to a couple of positives. The Giants run defense has been stout and they certainly don't face an intimidating opponent in that sense here. They've also gotten healthier in their receiving corps with Sterling Shepherd back in the mix to compliment Darius Slayton, who has enjoyed a career year so far. The betting majority should be all over the Bucs in this one but we'll go the other way and grab the points with a G-Men squad that has rarely gotten blown out over the course of its 1-6 start. Take New York (10*).
|11-01-20||Cowboys v. Eagles -10.5||9-23||Win||100||33 h 44 m||Show|
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.
This is a fairly obvious play but that doesn't mean it's the wrong one. We should see the Eagles defense absolutely feast on an overmatched Cowboys offense here. There's little reason to expect any sort of surprise breakout performance from rookie QB Ben DiNucci - the Cowboys true third-string option under center. He should be under duress against a fierce Eagles pass rush all night long, setting up the potential for plenty of short fields for the Philadelphia offense. For at least this week, we should see the Eagles offense take flight. We saw positive signs in last week's come-from-behind victory over the Giants (we missed with Philly in that game). Now with an extended week of practice, look for them to take advantage of a reeling Cowboys stop-unit. Take Philadelphia (10*).
|10-26-20||Bears v. Rams -5.5||10-24||Win||100||12 h 27 m||Show|
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Chicago at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
This will be pegged as a defensive showdown between two upper-echelon NFC teams with the Bears checking in at 5-1 and the Rams 4-2. I see this as a bit of a flat spot for Chicago coming off back-to-back wins over the Bucs and Panthers. I simply feel the Bears may be in line for a stinker has as the matchup doesn't set up favorably. The Rams are certainly comfortable playing here at So-Fi Stadium where they've gone a perfect 2-0 and allowed just 26 points in the process. The Bears defense has certainly been stout, but not quite so dominant on the road where they've allowed over 21 points per game. That number shoots up to 24.5 points per contest in domes, where they weren't nearly as stingy in Detroit and Atlanta earlier this season. Simply put, Chicago is a team built for a outdoor environment in my opinion, on both sides of the football. I'm not expecting any sort of resurgence from Bears QB Nick Foles against a fierce Rams defense. He has by all accounts struggled since taking over the reins from an ineffective Mitchell Trubisky. The Rams have shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey to blanket Chicago's lone true offensive star in WR Allen Robinson. While Los Angeles does give up plenty of yardage on the ground, I'm not convinced Bears RB David Montgomery can hit paydirt here as he has just one touchdown to his credit this season. Rams QB Jared Goff once again won't be asked to do a whole lot, but he'll do enough to get the Rams the win and cover. Take Los Angeles (10*).
|10-25-20||Bucs -3.5 v. Raiders||Top||45-20||Win||100||25 h 42 m||Show|
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Las Vegas at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.
I continue to believe that the Raiders victory in Kansas City two weeks ago will ultimately prove to be the high point of their season. This is a nightmarish matchup for Vegas with a possible COVID outbreak moving the game from primetime to the late afternoon window. Note that the Raiders will be welcoming a Bucs squad that seems to be getting better (on both sides of the football) with each passing week. Tampa Bay now has an elite-level defense and should feast on a Raiders offense led by mistake-prone and tentative QB Derek Carr. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and the Bucs offense is set to explode against a weak, undermanned Raiders defense. This game has blowout potential despite the relatively short pointspread. Take Tampa Bay (10*).
|10-25-20||Steelers +1.5 v. Titans||Top||27-24||Win||100||22 h 58 m||Show|
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Tennessee at 1 pm et on Sunday.
Few teams are having as much fun as the Pittsburgh Steelers, who check in a perfect 5-0 on the season, matching the record of the team they'll face on Sunday - the Tennessee Titans. I'll give the Steelers the nod here as they match up well against Tennessee in a number of areas. First of all, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better run defense than that of the Steelers. If any team can at least slow down the beast that is Titans RB Derrick Henry, it's the Steelers. Take away Henry and QB Ryan Tannehill obviously becomes far less effective. LT Taylor Lewan will certainly be a key absence on the Titans offensive line. Meanwhile, the Titans defense, while carrying a very positive reputation, has struggled for much of the campaign. Tennessee has been particularly weak against the run, giving up over five yards per rush and five touchdowns to enemy backs. That absolutely opens the door for a steadily-evolving Pittsburgh offense that has quietly been excelling across the board. Both of these teams are legitimate AFC title contenders, but the Steelers get the edge here as we approach the midway point of the regular season. Take Pittsburgh (10*).
|10-25-20||Bills -10 v. Jets||18-10||Loss||-110||22 h 50 m||Show|
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.
There's absolutely no reason to jump off the Jets fade bus at this point as the Bills find themselves in fantastic bounce-back position against punchless Gang Green on Sunday afternoon. We've seen Buffalo's worst over the last two weeks, even if it did hang tough against the Chiefs this past Monday night. Here, we should see the Bills offense absolutely shred a Jets defense that has essentially checked out on the season. On the flip side, the Buffalo defense takes a huge step down in class after facing two of the NFL's best offenses in the Titans and Chiefs. New York's offense is going nowhere with QB Joe Flacco at the helm. While I actually like the matchup for the Jets running game against the Bills, that won't be enough to keep them within arm's reach for four quarters. This could very well be the spot where the Bills do pin back their ears and stiffen up against the run and if that happens this is an absolute rout. Take Buffalo (10*).
|10-25-20||Packers -3 v. Texans||35-20||Win||100||22 h 43 m||Show|
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.
I'll lay the points with the Packers in this clear bounce-back spot against the Texans on Sunday. Green Bay absolutely laid an egg last Sunday afternoon in Tampa, falling in blowout fashion against the Bucs. Of course, they were facing one of the league's best defenses in that game. Here, they'll be going up against one of the worst. The Texans are giving up nearly six yards per rush on the ground and haven't been much better against opposing passing games. Expect Aaron Rodgers and co. to have a field day at NRG Stadium. Meanwhile, the Houston offense had plenty of success last week in Tennessee (we won with the 'over' in that game) but should find the sledding a little tougher here as the Packers have actually been tough on opposing quarterbacks. The Texans had a bit of upside following the Bill O'Brien firing, but that's gone now. I like the Packers to cover the short number. Take Green Bay (10*).
|10-22-20||Giants v. Eagles -4||Top||21-22||Loss||-116||12 h 27 m||Show|
TNF Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
I like the way this one sets up for the Eagles for a number of reasons. First, we saw some signs of life from Philadelphia last Sunday as it didn't fold the tent after falling behind against an elite Ravens squad. In fact, the Eagles were a two-point conversion away from sending the game to overtime. Meanwhile, the Giants are fresh off their first win of the season, coming at the expense of the equally lowly Washington Football Team. Here, New York faces a much tougher challenge against a still-fierce Eagles pass rush that ranks top three in the NFL in quarterback hits. Expect Giants QB Daniel Jones to be under duress all night long. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been lifeless and essentially sets Eagles QB Carson Wentz up for a breakout performance here, even with TE Zach Ertz sidelined. Ertz hasn't been effective anyway so his absence won't be missed all that much. Despite facing a stable of lower-tier quarterbacks, the G-Men defense have done little to slow opposing offenses. Look for the Eagles to take out their frustrations on Joe Judge's squad here. Take Philadelphia (10*).
|10-19-20||Chiefs -5.5 v. Bills||26-17||Win||100||6 h 33 m||Show|
My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Buffalo at 5 pm et on Monday.
The reasoning behind this play is fairly simple. I don't believe the Bills defense, which was severely overrated early in the season, can keep the Chiefs at bay for four quarters on Monday night, nor do I believe Josh Allen and the Bills offense will be able to avoid the mistakes that will ultimately result in a lopsided Chiefs victory. Kansas City suffered a clear letdown last Sunday as it wasn't sharp in any facet of the game in a loss to the Raiders. That one stung. Now the Chiefs have had extra time to stew on that loss and I look for them to come up big on Monday in Buffalo. Take Kansas City (10*).
|10-18-20||Browns v. Steelers -3||Top||7-38||Win||100||17 h 40 m||Show|
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.
While the Browns are rolling right now I can't help but feel they're ripe for a blowout at the hands of the Steelers on Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are capable of absolutely shutting down Cleveland's ground attack, having allowed just north of three yards per rush this season. Take away the Browns running game and you severely deplete their offense, especially with QB Baker Mayfield banged up. Meanwhile, the Steelers offense continues to round into form. The fact is, Pittsburgh has been one of the three most impressive squads in the NFL in the first month-plus of the season as far as I'm concerned. I look for the Pittsburgh offense to absolutely gash a suddenly overrated Browns defense here on Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field. Take Pittsburgh (10*).
|10-11-20||Raiders v. Chiefs -11||Top||40-32||Loss||-108||23 h 33 m||Show|
NFL AFC West Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Las Vegas at 1 pm et on Sunday.
I absolutely love the way this one sets up for the Chiefs, even as they play on a short week following Monday's sleepy win over the undermanned Patriots. Las Vegas has fallen on hard times following a hot start, and it's had everything to do with its schedule - which certainly doesn't get any easier here. I don't like the look of the Raiders offense right now at all, with RB Josh Jacobs stuck running behind a weak offensive line, and QB Derek Carr once again struggling to generate any productive plays down the field. Meanwhile, the Chiefs should feast on a Raiders defense that can't stop the run (they're giving up over five yards per rush this season) and are average against the pass. TE Travis Kelce should go off in this contest as he has traditionally owned the Raiders defense. Take Kansas City (10*).
|10-11-20||Cardinals -7 v. Jets||30-10||Win||100||22 h 60 m||Show|
My selection is on Arizona minus the points over New York at 1 pm et on Sunday.
This is a massive bounce-back spot for the Cardinals, who have largely been a disappointment to this point. With the Jets getting torched for over 4.5 yards per rush look for the Cards to go back to basics offensively and lean on their ground attack here. That should serve to open things up for QB Kyler Murray, whose best days almost certainly lie ahead of him following a tough start to the season. The Jets have literally zero upside at this point and this could very well be Adam Gase's final game as head coach. If they weren't able to keep up with the Brett Rypien-led Broncos last Thursday night, they're unlikely to stick with Kliff Kingsbury's Cards here. With veteran statue QB Joe Flacco taking over under center, Arizona will have no excuses for not containing a below average Jets offense. Take Arizona (10*).
|10-04-20||Ravens -13 v. Washington Football Team||Top||31-17||Win||100||73 h 32 m||Show|
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.
This is an absolute smash spot for the Ravens, who obviously have a bad taste in their mouths following Monday's dismantling at the hands of the Chiefs. Washington has been competitive in two of its three games this season, even winning one of them (we cashed with Washington in its Week 1 win over Philadelphia), but there have been some major red flags raised over the last two weeks. QB Dwayne Haskins is looking less and less like the answer for this offense, although he hasn't had much help from his supporting cast outside of WR Terry McLaurin. Here, he faces an elite Baltimore defense that is far better than it showed against Kansas City's 'next-level' offense on Monday night. The Ravens offense is in position to roll against a suddenly injury-plagued Washington defense that lost Matt Ioannidis and Chase Young last Sunday. Note that Washington has allowed nearly 400 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns through three games this season. Its secondary is arguably its weakest point and I'm confident Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will take full advantage of that leaky back-end in this one. With their next game coming at home against the winless Bengals next week, there's no reason for the Ravens to look past Washington. Take Baltimore (10*).
|10-01-20||Broncos v. Jets +1||37-28||Loss||-113||36 h 20 m||Show|
My selection is on New York plus the points over Denver at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
I'll plug my nose and back the Jets in this Thursday night stinker. The Broncos carried some optimism into training camp back in August but let's face it, injuries have completely derailed their season. While this is a winnable game, I'm not convinced Denver has the personnel to do it. Note that Broncos quarterbacks have gotten absolutely crushed through three games - sacked a combined 13 times. Now they turn to inexperienced Brett Rypien, who doesn't figure to fare much better behind a leaky offensive line. Meanwhile, the Broncos injury-ravaged defense has done little to slow opposing quarterbacks, allowing a 68% completion percentage and forcing just one interception compared to seven touchdowns. With WR Jamison Crowder expected back on the field, I do look for Jets QB Sam Darnold to make a last stand, so to speak, and perhaps save his head coach Adam Gase's job (for one week anyway). Take New York (10*).
|09-27-20||Bucs -6 v. Broncos||28-10||Win||100||74 h 15 m||Show|
My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Denver at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
Credit the Broncos for making things interesting against the Steelers last Sunday. In fact, Denver checks into this one sporting a perfect 2-0 ATS record. I don't expect the Broncos to make it three straight ATS victories here, however, as this is a nightmarish matchup, even at home. The Bucs got on track with a sloppy but generally lopsided win over the Panthers last Sunday. I do expect them to sharpen things up on both sides of the football, but particularly on offense as the season progresses. This is a true smash spot for their offense against a Broncos defense that has simply been decimated by injuries. Offensively, Denver is forced to turn to Jeff Driskel in a starting role after Drew Lock went down last week. Not only that but Driskel won't have elite WR Courtland Sutton to work with as he's injured as well. There's just little reason to have any optimism that the Broncos can sustain drives or consistently put points on the board, particularly against an underrated Bucs defense that has done a nice job of handling the Saints and Panthers through two games. Take Tampa Bay (10*).
|09-27-20||Jets v. Colts -11||7-36||Win||100||74 h 2 m||Show|
My selection is on Indianapolis minus the points over New York at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.
I'll lay the points with the Colts on Sunday as they welcome the hapless Jets to Indy. Despite facing an injury-decimated 49ers squad, the Jets still went out and embarrassed themselves last Sunday, thankfully without their fans in the stadium. Now they draw a more unfavorable matchup as they travel to face a Colts squad that 'got right' in last week's rout of the Vikings. The Indy defense should absolutely feast on an undermanned Jets offense here. The Colts enter this game ranking third in the NFL in sacks with seven and should take advantage of a Jets o-line that is missing its anchor, C Connor McGovern. With the Jets giving up five yards per rush this season they're unlikely to slow the quickly-ascending rookie RB Jonathan Taylor. QB Philip Rivers isn't much more than a game-manager at this stage of his career, although I will point out that his numbers would look a little better were it not for a key T.Y. Hilton drop that would have resulted in a long touchdown last week. Here, look for the Colts to take care of the football on offense, capitalize on a number of short fields afforded by their defense and win in convincing fashion. Take Indianapolis (10*).
|09-27-20||Bengals v. Eagles -4.5||23-23||Loss||-102||71 h 39 m||Show|
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.
We won with the Bengals in each of the last two weeks but were certainly fortunate to do so last week as Joe Burrow led his team on a late backdoor-clinching touchdown drive in Cleveland. There are obviously going to be some growing pains in Cincy, despite all of Burrow's upside. Here, I look for the Bengals to get blown out by what will be an extremely motivated 0-2 Eagles squad. Philadelphia has drawn a pair of tough matchups to open the campaign considering its injury-ravaged offensive line. Not surprisingly, QB Carson Wentz has taken a beating. The good news here is that the Bengals don't have much of a pass rush, having recorded just two sacks through their first two games. Look for Wentz to enjoy a solid 'get right' performance here while RB Miles Sanders takes care of the rest after shaking off the rust last Sunday. I'll gladly take the discount being offered to back the superior team in this matchup. Take Philadelphia (10*).
|09-20-20||Ravens -7 v. Texans||33-16||Win||100||48 h 22 m||Show|
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
We won with the Ravens last Sunday as they annihilated the overmatched Browns. After Cleveland showed some life on Thursday night, that win looks all the more impressive. Now Baltimore heads to Houston to face a Texans squad that I feel could turn out to be a punching bag this season. It's only a matter of time before Bill O'Brien's time is up in H-Town and this game should accelerate that clock. The Ravens run-oriented attack should absolutely feast on a Texans defense that was torched for 168 yards by the Chiefs backfield last week. Meanwhile, the Houston secondary is in shambles and should have no answers for the Ravens capable wide receiving corps. QB Deshaun Watson has to be wondering what his future holds in Houston following the departure of WR DeAndre Hopkins. While Will Fuller can serve as a Hopkins clone in some ways, he's obviously injury-prone and can't carry the passing game all on his own. The Ravens are positively loaded on the defensive side of the football and already proved they could contain Watson in last year's meeting. There's little reason to expect anything different this time around as it should only be a matter of time before Baltimore stretches out the margin. Take Baltimore (10*).
|09-20-20||Chiefs -8.5 v. Chargers||Top||23-20||Loss||-104||48 h 51 m||Show|
NFL AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Los Angeles at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
First off, it's worth noting that the SU winner has gone an incredible 18-1-1 ATS in the Chiefs last 20 regular season games. Here, I certainly expect to see the Chiefs prevail and with that being said, I'm confident they can cover the somewhat lofty number. While the Chargers have shown the ability to contain Patrick Mahomes in previous meetings, I'm not sure they're going to have any answers for the Chiefs ground game led by super rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire. I'm also not convinced Los Angeles will be able to finish enough drives with 7's on the board against a still-underrated Chiefs defense that's strength lies in its pass rush. Keep in mind, the Chargers will be without their o-line anchor in center Mike Pouncey for this one. That opens the door for the Chiefs front seven to get into the backfield with consistency in this one. The Chargers are in a state of change offensively going from immobile QB Phillip Rivers to the agile Tyrod Taylor. As we saw last Sunday, this is a unit that will likely go through some growing pains in the early going and I don't see this as an ideal matchup for them to move to 2-0 on the campaign. Take Kansas City (10*).
|09-20-20||Panthers v. Bucs -8||Top||17-31||Win||100||53 h 51 m||Show|
NFL Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Tampa Bay minus the points over Carolina at 1 pm et on Sunday.
The Panthers blew an excellent opportunity to earn a much-needed opening week win last Sunday against the Raiders (given their tough early season schedule they could be staring down an awful start). Here, I look for them to get blown out at the hands of a hungry Bucs squad. Tampa Bay fell short in last week's showdown with the Saints, largely due to the inept play of its offense. More on that in a moment. First, let's talk about the Bucs underrated defense, which held the Saints to just 6.4 yards per play last Sunday, picking up right where it left off following a red hot finish to last season. The Panthers offense obviously revolves around RB Christian McCaffrey but there's reason to believe he could be held in check here after Tampa Bay completely shut him down in both meetings last season. The Bucs offense looked out of sync in Tom Brady's debut last Sunday. This is a tremendous bounce-back spot, however, as the Panthers own one of the league's weakest defenses. The Raiders torched the Panthers for 34 points last Sunday. You know your defense has a problem when you're giving up nearly double-digit yards per play against QB Derek Carr. While Bucs WR Chris Godwin could miss this game after entering concussion protocol mid-week, this is very much a receiving corps by committee and I expect Tampa's wealth of pass-catchers to pick up the slack in his possible absence. I don't need to tell you that Tom Brady's motivation level will be sky-high (it always is) after getting somewhat called out by head coach Bruce Arians. Take Tampa Bay (10*).
|09-20-20||Giants +5.5 v. Bears||13-17||Win||100||52 h 29 m||Show|
My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday.
I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Giants on Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. We successfully faded New York in Monday's blowout loss to the Steelers but this is a fine bounce-back spot. Look for RB Saquon Barkley in particular to feast on what appears to be a bottom-tier Bears run defense. Chicago gave up 150+ total yards against the Lions below average stable of running backs last Sunday. After turning in the worst performance of his career to date, Barkley should be the focal point of the G-Men offense here. Credit Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears for rallying from a big fourth quarter deficit in Detroit last week but that had more to do with the Lions ineptitude than anything else. I look for Trubisky to struggle, even in a favorable matchup against a very average Giants defense. Outside of WR Allen Robinson, there's nothing all that imposing about the Bears offense. Take New York (10*).
|09-20-20||Bills -5.5 v. Dolphins||31-28||Loss||-110||52 h 23 m||Show|
My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.
While the Dolphins certainly have bright days ahead, it's going to continue to be a slog here in the early going this season. Miami made a new-look Patriots squad look awfully good last Sunday. I expect more of the same against a superior Bills team this week. Buffalo should absolutely have its way with a very beatable Dolphins defense. QB Josh Allen should absolutely be able to replicate Pats QB Cam Newton's performance against Miami as he possesses similar tools. Note that Miami gave up a whopping 217 rushing yards in last week's loss. It's only a matter of time before the Fins turn to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback, with the whispers getting a whole lot louder following vet Ryan Fitzpatrick's three-interception performance last Sunday. Buffalo boasts a truly elite defense and should have little trouble containing a banged-up Dolphins offense here. Take Buffalo (10*).
|09-20-20||Rams v. Eagles +1||37-19||Loss||-115||52 h 18 m||Show|
My selection is on Philadelphia over Los Angeles at 1 pm et on Sunday.
We successfully faded the Eagles in last Sunday's loss in Washington but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back them as they return home to host the Rams this week. Philadelphia is expected to get some key cogs back on the field this week in the form of pass rush specialists Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham and right tackle Lane Johnson. If all three can play, that would be a huge boost to a team that is desperate for a strong bounce-back performance. RB Miles Sanders' absence was certainly felt in last Sunday's loss as well and all indications are he'll be back to full strength and on the field this week. I don't have a lot of faith in Rams QB Jared Goff, even after last week's strong showing against the Cowboys. This is a tougher matchup as Goff has traditionally struggled away from home. Despite their myriad of injuries, the Eagles still managed to hold the Washington Football Team to just north of two yards per rush in last week's loss. If the Rams can't get their ground game going here, I expect Goff to have a long afternoon. Take Philadelphia (10*).
|09-17-20||Bengals +6 v. Browns||30-35||Win||100||35 h 55 m||Show|
My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
I can understand why the Browns are being favored by nearly a touchdown in this game - after all, this is a huge motivational spot for them coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Ravens (we won with Baltimore in that game) in the national spotlight against a division opponent they 'should' handle. I simply feel they're being asked to lay too many points in this spot as the Bengals showed me enough in a difficult matchup to support them for a second consecutive week. Give Bengals QB Joe Burrow a lot of credit for hanging in there against a very tough Chargers defense last Sunday. Highlights obviously included his touchdown run and his near game-tying (or winning) drive at the end of the fourth quarter. There was plenty to build off of following that performance and I'm confident we'll see him find more success against the Browns here. I also look for a big bounce-back performance from RB Joe Mixon who was relatively ineffective and even lost a fumble (his first since 2016). The Browns are a mess, and have been since the start of last season. While I do like their ground attack and feel they can have considerable success running the football against the Bengals non-existent run defense, I'm not sure QB Baker Mayfield has the composure to avoid a couple of costly mistakes that ultimately keeps this game within arm's reach for the Bengals. Take Cincinnati (10*).
|09-14-20||Titans -3 v. Broncos||16-14||Loss||-107||25 h 58 m||Show|
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Denver at 10:10 pm et on Monday.
This game has blowout potential with the Broncos ill-equipped to handle the Titans underrated offense or claw their way back into contention should they fall behind early. Of course, Denver suffered a major blow with the season-ending ankle injury to Von Miller last week. The Broncos were already going to be undermanned defensively before Miller went down due to a number of defections on that side of the football during the offseason. Expect RB Derrick Henry to have a field day against the Broncos once-vaunted 'D'. Offensively, the Broncos have a new coordinator, not to mention an inexperienced quarterback who will be making just his sixth career NFL start - and he'll be doing so potentially without his top target in WR Courtland Sutton. While I do like the upside of rookie WR's Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, Hamler is dealing with an injury and Jeudy didn't exactly receive rave reviews during training camp. Maybe the Broncos will elect to go run-heavy but I suspect they'll only be banging their heads against the wall versus a stout Titans defense. Tennessee should be able to pin back its ears and get after QB Drew Lock all night long. Take Tennessee (10*).
|09-14-20||Steelers -5.5 v. Giants||Top||26-16||Win||100||22 h 3 m||Show|
NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over New York at 7:15 pm et on Monday.
This really is a tough opening week matchup for the Giants as they try to turn the page on what has been a tough era of G-Men football. The Steelers are reloaded for another run with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger under center. All indications are that his arm is back at full strength as he looks to get the Pittsburgh offense back on track following a tumultuous 2019 campaign. Roethlisberger should feast on a Giants pass defense that was absolutely horrendous last season and doesn't figure to improve here in 2020. Even if Big Ben doesn't dominate, the Steelers should enjoy plenty of success on the ground against a New York defense that gave up just shy of 150 rush yards per game last season. There were signs of life in the Giants offense with rookie Daniel Jones at the helm last season. Of course, it helps that he has RB Saquon Barkley in the backfield but I question how much running room he'll find against the teeth of the Steelers defense. Meanwhile, the G-Men boast a below average group of wide receivers that won't instill much fear at all in the Steelers secondary. Take Pittsburgh (10*).
|09-13-20||Chargers v. Bengals +3.5||Top||16-13||Win||100||79 h 49 m||Show|
AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on Cincinnati plus the points over Los Angeles at 4:05 pm et on Sunday.
I'm more than happy to grab the points with an underrated Bengals team hosting an overrated Chargers squad on Sunday afternoon. I'm not sure the Tyrod Taylor-led Chargers have any business traveling across the country and being favored in this matchup. With issues on their offensive line and an unproven ground attack (Austin Ekeler is a terrific RB but more of a pass-catcher than runner), I believe they'll have trouble chewing up clock and ultimately putting this game to bed. It remains to be seen how effective Bengals QB Joe Burrow can be in his NFL debut against a tough defense but I'm confident he can do just enough (and not make the critical game-changing mistakes) to lead the Bengals to victory. I don't believe the Chargers bring any sort of intimidation factor to the table here, especially after losing one of their best defensive players in SS Derwin James to injury. The Chargers are still absolutely loaded with talent on defense but in today's NFL, that's rarely enough. Take Cincinnati (10*).
|09-13-20||Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6||17-27||Win||100||77 h 5 m||Show|
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.
I think it's a pretty good bet that few recreational players will want any part of the Washington Football Team on Sunday afternoon. After all, it was a truly tumultuous offseason in the nation's capital. With that being said, I believe this game is far closer to a pk'em than the oddsmakers are suggesting. Philadelphia isn't exactly on solid ground entering the new season. QB Carson Wentz was banged up throughout training camp and has major pass protection issues with two key cogs on the offensive line (Andre Dillard and Brandon Brooks) lost to injuries. It sets up a bit of a nightmarish situation against Washington's vaunted pass rush. Meanwhile, I'm higher on Washington QB Dwayne Haskins than some. I believe he and last year's breakout star WR Terry McLaurin can do plenty of damage right out of the gate this season, particularly against the Eagles beatable secondary. Philadelphia's defense isn't nearly as fearsome with the likes of Malcolm Jenkins and Nigel Bradham out of the mix. Take Washington (10*).
|09-13-20||Browns v. Ravens -7.5||6-38||Win||100||77 h 55 m||Show|
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Cleveland at 1 pm et on Sunday.
I'm not sure the Ravens are getting quite enough credit for their regular season performance a year ago, or hype entering the new season (thanks in large part to the love-in for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs). Baltimore has the potential to be even better this year after shoring up its run defense and making some savvy additions on offense during the offseason. The Browns underwent a coaching overhaul following a disappointing 2019 campaign but I'm not sure it's going to result in immediate positive returns. This is quite simply an awful opening week matchup against a loaded Super Bowl contender that carries a big chip on its shoulder following last January's early playoff exit. The Browns are dealing with a number of injuries and absences on the defensive side of the football which should have QB Lamar Jackson licking his chops entering this contest. Take Baltimore (10*).
|02-02-20||49ers v. Chiefs -1||Top||20-31||Win||100||226 h 30 m||Show|
NFL Playoff Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over San Francisco at 6:30 pm et on Sunday February 2nd.
I'm holding futures tickets on the Chiefs so this is really a no-brainer for me. There's nothing I've seen in the playoffs that has swayed me from the fact that Kansas City is destined to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy on February 2nd. Yes, San Francisco has impressed and is without a doubt the 'it team' entering this contest - a true upstart that has reached this point far quicker than most expected under the guidance of head coach Kyle Shanahan. I'll give the Niners all the credit in the world for getting here, but let's not get too excited by playoff home wins over extremely flawed Vikings and Packers squads that simply didn't show up in Santa Clara. There's no question, the Niners will get the Chiefs best effort here. Kansas City has been steadily building to this point, with its defense showing up when it matters most and QB Patrick Mahomes taking his game to a completely other level in the postseason. Everything has broke right for the Chiefs in the playoffs with the Ravens getting upset by the Titans, even though I do believe Kansas City would have went into Baltimore and won regardless. Give me the Chiefs at a very discounted number here. Take Kansas City (10*).
|01-19-20||Packers +8 v. 49ers||20-37||Loss||-107||8 h 27 m||Show|
My selection is on Green Bay plus the points over San Francisco at 6:40 pm et on Sunday.
Few are giving the Packers much of a chance here but I will. Green Bay got routed by San Francisco in its regular season meeting but I expect a much stronger performance from the Packers here. I find it a big surprising that the 49ers are actually laying more points in this matchup - a tougher one in my opinion - than they were against the Vikings last week. The Seahawks were a popular pick last week and the Packers managed to outlast them. Don't be surprised if we see a similar story unfold here as QB Aaron Rodgers writes another chapter in his storied career with a big performance against the Niners. Take Green Bay (10*).
|01-12-20||Seahawks +4.5 v. Packers||23-28||Loss||-110||22 h 38 m||Show|
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Green Bay at 6:40 pm et on Sunday.
I'll grab the points with the Seahawks in this one as I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair between these familiar NFC foes. Seattle checked all the boxes in last week's mild upset win in Philadelphia and should be well-positioned to continue its march toward the Super Bowl on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field. RB Marshawn Lynch is only going to get stronger and more comfortable in the Seahawks offense with each passing week. QB Russell Wilson hit a bit of a slump late in the regular season but certainly showed signs of turning things around against the Eagles last week. The Packers earned a first round bye but I'm honestly not sure how good this team actually is. I do like their pass rush and WR DaVante Adams is obviously a beast, but outside of that the jury is out. Can QB Aaron Rodgers regain past form? That remains to be seen. I would rather have my money on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks on Sunday. Take Seattle (10*).
|01-12-20||Texans v. Chiefs -9.5||Top||31-51||Win||100||18 h 10 m||Show|
NFL Divisional Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City minus the points over Houston at 3:05 pm et on Sunday.
Houston caught an extremely favorable draw last week as it hosted the Bills and ultimately needed everything in its bag of tricks to pull out an overtime victory. Now the Texans have to travel to face the rested Chiefs, who will have revenge on their minds after suffering a somewhat shocking loss against Houston right here at Arrowhead earlier this season. The Chiefs are a different team now than they were then. First of all, they have a defense. Second, Patrick Mahomes is healthy and has his full compliment of weapons at his disposal. The Texans defense doesn't match up well at all with the Chiefs multi-dimensional offensive attack. On the flip side, I fully expect to see Kansas City do a good job of keeping Texans QB DeShaun Watson in the pocket. Unlike the Titans, who came out and stunned the Ravens early in last night's game, the Texans offense will have a tough time getting off the ground here. This one has blowout potential. Take Kansas City (10*).
|01-11-20||Titans v. Ravens -9.5||28-12||Loss||-109||58 h 33 m||Show|
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Tennessee at 8:15 pm et on Saturday.
I'll gladly lay the points with the Ravens on Saturday night as they begin what they hope will be a Super Bowl run against the Titans in Baltimore. This is an ideal spot to fade the Titans as the betting public is high on them following their stunning upset over the might Patriots in Foxborough last Saturday. I don't believe Tennessee is as good as it looked in that victory over New England. Let's face it, the Pats were a mess down the stretch and nothing changed at all in the Wild Card round. Here, the Titans will face a much tougher challenge, playing on the road for a third consecutive week off back-to-back victories in 'must-win' games. The Ravens weaknesses are few and far between. I don't need to tell you that QB Lamar Jackson is in line for another huge performance on Saturday night. I do think we'll see the Ravens defense move to the forefront after this game as well as they should absolutely dominate Titans QB Ryan Tannehill. RB Derrick Henry will get his but it won't be enough to keep the Titans within arm's reach of the AFC's number one seed. Take Baltimore (10*).
|01-11-20||Vikings +7 v. 49ers||10-27||Loss||-102||54 h 45 m||Show|
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over San Francisco at 4:35 pm et on Saturday.
We won with the Vikings in last week's stunning upset of the Saints in New Orleans and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they head to the west coast to face the 49ers. I'm not sure we saw Minnesota's best game at the Superdome last Sunday but it still managed to pull out an overtime win. The overriding narrative here is that the 49ers defense will manhandle the Vikings Kirk Cousins-led offense. I'm just not convinced that will be the case. Yes, the Vikes haven't been as good on the road, and certainly not outdoors. But I believe this is a team with a big chip on their shoulder and that underdog mentality will serve them well again here. The 49ers have enjoyed a terrific season but are largely green when it comes to the postseason. I don't consider Levi's Stadium to be an intimidating venue for the opposition by any means. Give me all the points I can get with the Vikes here. Take Minnesota (10*).
|01-05-20||Seahawks v. Eagles +1||Top||17-9||Loss||-110||19 h 21 m||Show|
NFL Wild Card Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Seattle at 4:40 pm et on Sunday.
The Seahawks are clearly in desperation mode having signed RBs Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin prior to last week's narrow loss to the 49ers. While QB Russell Wilson always instills some level of confidence, the rest of the team does not. Seattle is banged-up on both sides of the football and now has to travel across the country to face an Eagles squad that has been surging despite all of their own injuries. Philadelphia's 'next man up' philosophy is nothing new. You of course will remember QB Nick Foles taking over for Carson Wentz and leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory just two years ago. We've seen guys like Boston Scott, Dallas Goedert and Greg Ward step up in a big way in recent weeks, and we should see more of the same here. The Eagles depleted secondary is certainly a concern but I'm not convinced the Seahawks offense can take advantage as Philadelphia's pass rush remains a strength and should have Wilson under duress all afternoon long. They'll be hard-pressed to advance beyond next weekend but I do look for the Eagles to secure a hard-fought victory here. Take Philadelphia (10*).
|01-05-20||Vikings +8 v. Saints||26-20||Win||100||16 h 34 m||Show|
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over New Orleans at 1:05 pm et on Sunday.
No one is giving the Vikings much of a chance in this game but I actually expect a competitive affair. I'm confident Minnesota can move the football on this inconsistent Saints defense with its full compliment of offensive pieces rested and ready to go following what amounted to a bye in Week 17 with its playoff positioning already decided. On the flip side, I don't see this as an ideal situation for Saints QB Drew Brees - an early start afternoon matchup at the Superdome. I've never been all that high on Vikes QB Kirk Cousins but the stats don't like and he has always performed better in a dome setting, as is the case here. I'm not convinced the Saints will ever pull away in this contest, so I'll grab all the points I can get with the Vikings. Take Minnesota (10*).
|01-04-20||Bills +3 v. Texans||19-22||Push||0||19 h 50 m||Show|
My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Houston at 4:35 pm et on Saturday.
I'm not too sure the Texans even belong in the playoffs, let alone hosting a game on Wild Card Weekend. DeShaun Watson essentially willed them to just enough wins this season to secure the division title in the AFC South. But we know the Texans have struggled in the playoffs before, and I expect a similar story to unfold here. The Bills bandwagon was all loaded up until they suffered a loss in front of a national audience two weeks ago. We actually won with the Patriots in that contest. Here, Buffalo finds itself in a far more favorable matchup. I don't think the Bills will have much trouble moving the football against a very beatable Texans defense - even as Houston welcomes DE J.J. Watt back to the fold. The Texans have struggled against the pass and struggled against the run this season, and the Bills can take advantage of both weaknesses with QB Josh Allen in line for a big performance. The real kicker here is that I expect to see Sean McDermott coach circles around Bill O'Brien. I'm not sure that advantage is being properly reflected in this pointspread. Take Buffalo (10*).
|12-29-19||Bears -3 v. Vikings||21-19||Loss||-125||16 h 38 m||Show|
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Minnesota at 1 pm et on Sunday.
This is an absolute 'lay down' spot for the Vikings playing on a short week with nothing to gain in the playoff picture. The Bears are expected to play their regular starters and should have plenty of motivation with a number of players looking to show up and show out to secure future jobs at the end of a miserable, disappointing campaign. Week 17 can be an extremely tough handicap but the reeling Bears are favored for a reason here in my opinion. Take Chicago (10*).
|12-29-19||Jets +1.5 v. Bills||13-6||Win||100||15 h 27 m||Show|
My selection is on New York over Buffalo at 1 pm et on Sunday.
I believe the Jets have some upside in this AFC East showdown on Sunday as the Bills are likely to rest most of their starters in Orchard Park. New York of course has plenty of players essentially auditioning for future roles. This matchup sets up beautifully for Jets RB Le'Veon Bell as he looks to put a disappointing campaign behind him and finish on a high note. Keep in mind, as I noted in my analysis of last week's play on the Patriots over the Bills, Buffalo has struggled against the run all season and with mostly backups on the field on Sunday, will have little chance of slowing Bell should the Jets choose to stick to the run. For the Bills, their focus is on the postseason, not the Jets. Take New York (10*).
|12-29-19||Dolphins v. Patriots -16||27-24||Loss||-117||15 h 24 m||Show|
My selection is on New England minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.
This is a blowout waiting to happen as the Patriots look to continue to 'get right' prior to the start of the playoffs. Last week's come-from-behind win over the Bills here in Foxborough was a step in the right direction. After facing an 'all hands on deck' Bills squad last week, the Pats should have little trouble brushing aside an undermanned Dolphins team. Miami obviously has nothing to play for but pride at this point and simply doesn't have the pieces or schemes in place on offense to put one over on New England. Look for the Pats to essentially eliminate the Fins passing game and pull away for the win and cover. Take New England (10*).
|12-22-19||Ravens v. Browns +10.5||Top||31-15||Loss||-115||7 h 58 m||Show|
NFL Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday.
The Browns bandwagon cleared months ago but if there were any stragglers left on board, they surely jumped ship after last week's ugly loss in Arizona. I actually believe that sets us up with considerable line value as they return home to lick their wounds and host the rival Ravens on Sunday afternoon. There was plenty of drama created by last week's loss, with talk of certain players, WR Jarvis Landry included, telling the Cardinals to 'come get me'. Here, I think we'll see the Browns attempt to force-feed Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., even as they face a tough challenge in that of the Ravens. The real key to this game may be Browns RB Nick Chubb. I'm confident he'll have a monster performance against a very beatable Baltimore run defense. Let's not lose sight of the fact that Cleveland has already defeated Baltimore once this season - on the road no less. As much as the Ravens would like to get back at the Browns, as I've said before revenge is a dish best served at home. Baltimore and Lamar Jackson in particular look unstoppable right now, but it is laying an awful lot of points in a divisional road game in late December. Look for the Browns to pull up their socks and show some pride for one week - this is essentially their Super Bowl for 2019. Take Cleveland (10*).
|12-21-19||Bills v. Patriots -6.5||Top||17-24||Win||100||27 h 37 m||Show|
NFL AFC East Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Buffalo at 4:30 pm et on Saturday.
We won with the Patriots in last Sunday's rout of the Bengals and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again here, as they return home to host the Bills in a big AFC East showdown. New England's offense remains somewhat broken, or so it appears. I do think we'll see Patriots OC Josh McDaniels scheme his way to some success against the Bills stout defense in this matchup, however. Note that while Buffalo's secondary has been rock solid, it has been vulnerable against the run, giving up 4.5 yards per rush this season. The Pats have no shortage of capable backs that could be in for breakout spots here. Buffalo escaped with a win in primetime in Pittsburgh last week but let's face it, QB Josh Allen didn't look good, and the Pats have had no trouble limiting him in previous matchups. There's absolutely no reason for the Pats to fear the Bills offense in this one, noting that they've held Buffalo to 16 points or less in four straight and six of the last seven meetings in this series. Take New England (10*).
|12-21-19||Texans v. Bucs +3.5||23-20||Win||100||23 h 17 m||Show|
My selection is on Tampa Bay plus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Saturday.
I like the Bucs plus the points in this Saturday afternoon matchup. The Texans obviously need this one more than the Bucs, who are simply playing out the string, but to be quite honest, I'm not all that high on Houston. Yes, the Texans were able to pull out a big win in Tennessee last Sunday but now they have to stay on the road and play on a short week against a non-conference opponent that simply won't draw the same level of motivation. The Bucs are without their top two wide receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin but don't think for a second that QB Jameis Winston won't continue to air it out. Not only that but the Bucs draw a favorable ground game matchup against a Texans defense that gives up over 4.6 yards per rush. I don't think Tampa Bay will ever be out of this one. Take Tampa Bay (10*).
|12-16-19||Colts v. Saints -8.5||Top||7-34||Win||100||47 h 13 m||Show|
NFL MNF Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Indianapolis at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
This is an absolute smash spot for the Saints at home in primetime against the reeling Colts. This is precisely the type of spotlight game where Saints QB Drew Brees goes off. The Colts defense has become suddenly non-existent against the pass as they enter this game on the heels of three straight losses. Indianapolis has shown some semblance of a run defense but the Saints offense is more than versatile enough to negate that advantage. Meanwhile the Colts offense has become quite one-dimensional in the absence of WR T.Y. Hilton. While Hilton may return for this game it's difficult to predict how effective he can be after an extended absence. RB Marlon Mack returned last week but was limited and I would suggest that will probably be the case again this week. Look for a monster performance from WR Michael Thomas to pace the Saints offense and we might even see RB Alvin Kamara finally get back on track with a big game catching passes out of the backfield. Take New Orleans (10*).
|12-15-19||Patriots -10 v. Bengals||34-13||Win||100||17 h 35 m||Show|
My selection is on New England minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.
This is a true 'get right' spot for the Patriots and I fully expect to see them blow the doors off the Bengals. Cincinnati couldn't follow up its first win of the season, falling to the Browns in Cleveland last Sunday. The Bengals have been playing better lately, thanks in large part to the re-emergence of RB Joe Mixon. I simply feel that we'll see the Pats take Mixon out of the equation in this one which should cripple the Bengals offense. The Brady-haters are out in full force these days but I do think Tom will turn in a solid performance here. That's not to mention the Pats ground game, which should shred the Bengals non-existent run defense. It's only a matter of time before New England puts this one away for good. Take New England (10*).
|12-12-19||Jets v. Ravens -15.5||21-42||Win||100||24 h 35 m||Show|
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over New York at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
I don't need to tell you that this is an absolutely amazing spot for the Ravens offense as they should shred a hapless Jets defense that is likely going to be without a pair of key cogs in Jamal Adams and Quinnen Williams. Even with Ravens QB Lamar Jackson dealing with an injured quad, there's no chance that the Jets slow him down here. Look for Jackson to run wild, while also feeding Hollywood Brown in what amounts to a blowout in the making. I do think the Jets will find some success offensively, simply due to the fact that the Ravens can't stop the run, but playing in catch-up mode, look for QB Sam Darnold to make enough mistakes to ultimately put this game out of reach for Gang Green. Take Baltimore (10*).
|12-09-19||Giants v. Eagles -9||17-23||Loss||-110||24 h 49 m||Show|
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
The Eagles are a downtrodden football team but they have to feel pretty good about the fact that they're just a game behind the Cowboys for the NFC East lead and a very winnable matchup presents itself as they host the lowly Giants on Monday night. The G-Men are simply playing out the string at this point and will trot out QB Eli Manning in place of an injured Daniel Jones. Manning really is a wild card at this point but it's worth noting that the Philadelphia defense is capable of generating a ferocious pass rush. Manning hasn't been good under pressure in the latter stages of his career. Meanwhile, Eagles QB Carson Wentz should absolutely light up a weak Giants defense that has shown no semblance of a pass rush this season. The Eagles offense is getting healthier with WR Alshon Jeffery coming off a tremendous bounce-back performance against the Dolphins last week. I'm high on Philadelphia rookie RB Miles Sanders as well. He has shown flashes of brilliance in recent weeks and could be in for another big game here. Take Philadelphia (10*).
|12-08-19||Titans -2.5 v. Raiders||42-21||Win||100||19 h 1 m||Show|
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
It seems that the Titans have found their quarterback in Ryan Tannehill even if the real story has been RB Derrick Henry, who is absolutely running rampant right now and should continue his torrid pace against a weak Raiders defense on Sunday afternoon. Tennessee isn't about to overlook any opponent, even a reeling one such as the Raiders. Oakland is in a tough spot traveling back home following a beatdown at the hands of the Chiefs last Sunday. Look for the Titans to ultimately pull away for a comfortable win on Sunday afternoon. Take Tennessee (10*).
|12-08-19||Ravens v. Bills +7||Top||24-17||Push||0||16 h 41 m||Show|
NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Baltimore at 1 pm et on Sunday.
The Bills continue to get no respect in the betting marketplace, even after last week's rout of the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. Here, I look for Buffalo to keep things close at the very least, and quite possibly win outright. Motivation will obviously be high for the Bills, not only are they hosting this year's 'it' team in the Ravens, but they'll have Doug Flutie making a rare appearance in Orchard Park to be honored as a Bills legend. Last week, Baltimore was able to overmatch the 49ers at home in a bad weather game, in an early start no less. The shoe is on the other foot this time around. Take Buffalo (10*).
|12-08-19||Redskins v. Packers -13||15-20||Loss||-105||16 h 38 m||Show|
My selection is on Green Bay minus the points over Washington at 1 pm et on Sunday.
This is an absolutely terrific 'get right' matchup for the Packers as they host the lifeless Redskins at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon. I don't see Washington offering any sort of resistance on the defensive side of the football while the Packers defense will be eager to bounce back and should feast on a miserable Redskins offensive line. The Redskins aren't the type of team capable of coming back and making things interesting after falling behind big, as I expect them to on Sunday afternoon. Look for a big game from Pack RB Aaron Jones, guiding Green Bay to a lopsided victory. Take Green Bay (10*).
|12-02-19||Vikings +3 v. Seahawks||30-37||Loss||-105||11 h 54 m||Show|
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Seattle at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
There's not a lot separating these two teams so it's no surprise that we're dealing with a very tight field goal line ahead of their Monday night showdown. I'll grab the points with the underdog Vikings as they come in well-rested and poised to take advantage of a very beatable Seattle defense. The Seahawks own a tremendous home field advantage at CenturyLink Field but it's certainly worth noting that they've already lost games against the Saints and Ravens here at home this season. I don't feel that intimidation will be a real factor against an experienced Vikings group. Seattle comes in riding its longest winning streak of the season, which stands at four games. I believe there's a good chance it ends here. Take Minnesota (10*).
|12-01-19||Jets -3 v. Bengals||Top||6-22||Loss||-106||64 h 10 m||Show|
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.
The Jets are in excellent position to add to the winless Bengals' misery on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. The New York offense has been quietly racking up points in recent weeks and is an absolute smash spot against a very beatable Bengals defense on Sunday. Cincinnati has been one of the worst teams in the league defending the run this season which really opens things up with the Jets offense and RB Le'Veon Bell in particular. Jets QB Sam Darnold is on a redemption tour after a brutal start to the season and he's in line for another big performance here. Meanwhile, the Jets quietly own the league's best run defense which should severely limit what the Bengals can do offensively. QB Andy Dalton is back as the starter and while he may give Cincinnati a bit of a spark, I'm not sure it really matters at this point. His supporting cast is seriously lacking with WR Tyler Boyd one of the only bright spots. RB Joe Mixon has had a nice run the last couple of games but I don't expect him to play a big role in this one. Take New York (10*).
|11-28-19||Saints -6.5 v. Falcons||Top||26-18||Win||100||47 h 22 m||Show|
NFL Turkey Day Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Atlanta at 8:15 pm et on Thursday.
The Saints had a tough time pulling away from the Panthers on Sunday but ultimately did secure the victory thanks in large part to miscues in Carolina’s kicking game. I expect a much cleaner performance from the Saints this week as they travel to face the division rival Falcons in the friendly confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. I like the way the Saints offense has rounded into form with a healthy Drew Brees. There’s reason to believe they can even improve on their recent strong performances with Alvin Kamara in particular in line for a big breakout performance here. Meanwhile, the cupboard is getting pretty bare for the Falcons offense with a number of key cogs banged-up and now forced to play on a short week. The Saints have been able to generate a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and I’m confident they’ll be able to force Falcons QB Matt Ryan into some key mistakes in this contest as well. Atlanta’s ground game is by no means imposing with RB Devonta Freeman once again questionable to suit up. I don’t think there’s any question the offense is missing the likes of Mohamed Sanu and Tevin Coleman right now. I’m not convinced Atlanta can stay in this game for four quarters. Take New Orleans (10*).
|11-28-19||Bears -3 v. Lions||24-20||Win||100||39 h 17 m||Show|
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 12:30 pm et on Thursday.
It might be time for the NFL to reconsider giving the Lions their annual home game on Thanksgiving Day. In fact, that time probably passed years ago. Mired in another disappointing campaign, there's little reason to have much confidence in Detroit here as it hosts Chicago. Of course, the Bears don't have a great deal of upside either but they do have more going for them than the Lions right now. The Chicago defense should feast on the Lions Jeff Driskel-led offense, with Driskel playing on a bad hamstring and coming off an absolute beating at the hands of the Redskins defense on Sunday. The Bears have done an excellent job of keeping opposing quarterbacks in the pocket and as long as they can continue to do that against Driskel, they'll be in fine shape on Thursday as he simply hasn't proven he can consistently move the chains through the air. There are obviously concerns when it comes to the Chicago offense but I'm not sure it will be asked to do too much in this one. QB Mitchell Trubisky is coming off one of his better performances, even though it did come against the lowly Giants. He draws another favorable matchup here against a banged-up Lions defense. Based on how I expect the Chicago defense to perform in this one, I think we will see Trubisky given some short fields to work with and do just enough to secure the win and cover. Take Chicago (10*).
|11-24-19||Cowboys v. Patriots -5.5||Top||9-13||Loss||-110||23 h 49 m||Show|
NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on New England minus the points over Dallas at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
Dallas bounced back with a win in Detroit last Sunday but it will find the going a lot tougher as it stays on the road to face the Patriots in Foxborough this week. Poor weather conditions are expected, which doesn't generally suit QB Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense well. While Dallas RB Ezekiel Elliott draws a favorable matchup on paper, I feel the Pats will be content to concede yardage on the ground once again, but ultimately do another nice job of keeping the opposition out of the end zone. Offensively, the Pats are banged-up right now but the 'next man up' philosophy has always served them well, and I expect no different here. The Cowboys defense, while elite on paper, has disappointed for much of the campaign, including last week when it allowed Lions backup QB Jeff Driskel to move the football up and down the field. New England QB Tom Brady isn't 100% healthy but I'm anticipating a big performance from the GOAT once again. This is precisely the type of game Bill Bellichick's Patriots get up for and win by margin. Take New England (10*).
|11-24-19||Broncos v. Bills -3.5||Top||3-20||Win||100||20 h 37 m||Show|
NFL Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo minus the points over Denver at 1 pm et on Sunday.
With Denver nearly pulling off an outright upset as a double-digit underdog at Minnesota last week, it's understandable that the Broncos are only a short underdog against the Bills on Sunday. I believe the Bills are once again undervalued. There's little chance we'll see Buffalo overlook Denver, not after the Broncos gave the Vikings such a serious run last week. I don't like the scheduling spot at all for Denver as it stays on the road for a second straight week, heading to a less than appealing destination in Buffalo. The Bills defense should absolutely feast on the Broncos leaky offensive line, noting that Denver ranks bottom-five in the league in sacks per QB dropback allowed. For their part, the Bills are inside the top 10 in terms of sacks this season. QB Brandon Allen has held his own to this point, but I look for him to get exposed by Buffalo here. This isn't exactly an eruption spot for the Bills offense against a quality Broncos defense, but I do think we'll see them be given enough short fields to inflict some damage on the scoreboard. Based on how I expect the Bills defense to perform in this game, I really don't think we're going to need a whole lot from the offense to ultimately stretch out the margin and put this one out of reach. Take Buffalo (10*).
|11-24-19||Seahawks +1.5 v. Eagles||17-9||Win||100||19 h 5 m||Show|
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over Philadelphia at 1 pm et on Sunday.
The Eagles are in desperation mode as they host the Seahawks on Sunday afternoon off last Sunday's disappointing narrow loss to the Patriots. I believe Philadelphia will be hard-pressed to bounce back as it deals with a number of key injuries on the offensive side of the football. That's not to say the Eagles can't find some success offensively against a very beatable Seahawks defense, but with RT Lane Johnson officially out and RB Jordan Howard all but ruled out, they'll need a peak performance from QB Carson Wentz. Of course, Wentz doesn't have his full compliment of wide receivers at his disposal. The Seahawks offense has been outstanding all season and QB Russell Wilson should have a field day picking apart the Eagles overmatched secondary. I'm still not sure the Seahawks WR duo and now trio of Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Josh Gordon get nearly enough credit. Take Seattle (10*).
|11-21-19||Colts +4 v. Texans||17-20||Win||100||14 h 38 m||Show|
My selection is on Indianapolis plus the points over Houston at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
I'll grab the points with the Colts in a matchup where home field rarely means much and the underdog has thrived, going 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. What more could you want from the Colts on the road this season? They opened the campaign with an overtime loss against the Chargers in Los Angeles before upsetting the Titans and Chiefs and then falling by just two points in Pittsburgh. Now they square off against a Texans squad reeling off last week's annihilation at the hands of the red hot Ravens in Baltimore. Save for a blowout win over the Falcons, Houston hasn't had an easy time finding the win column at home, with two of its three victories coming by a combined four points. I don't like the way the Texans defense matches up at all against the Colts passing game, which could get WR T.Y. Hilton back on the field on Thursday night. While the Colts defense will have its hands full with QB DeShaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins, I really don't feel that the Texans offense is all that imposing. Watson will need a monumental effort to bounce-back from last week's rough ride against the Ravens. Take Indianapolis (10*).
|11-18-19||Chiefs v. Chargers +5||Top||24-17||Loss||-110||23 h 53 m||Show|
NFL AFC West Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Kansas City at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
We missed the mark (barely) with the Chargers last week as they fell by just two points in Oakland. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Los Angeles here, however, even if this does appear to be an even tougher matchup. First of all, I'm not sure it actually is a tougher matchup. The Raiders are far better than anyone could have anticipated and last week the Chargers found that out first hand. Unlike the Raiders, the Chiefs don't possess a quality defense. Nor does Kansas City have a consistently productive ground attack. QB Patrick Mahomes returned from injury and looked very 'Mahomes-like' in last week's narrow loss in Tennessee, throwing for a season-high as far as pass yards goes. I simply feel that the Chargers, with their excellent offensive balance led by the re-emergence of RB Melvin Gordon, can go blow-for-blow with Andy Reid's Chiefs, just as they did in their most recent meeting last season - a wild 29-28 victory at Arrowhead Stadium on a Thursday night in December. Take Los Angeles (10*).
|11-17-19||Bears v. Rams -6||7-17||Win||100||23 h 59 m||Show|
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Chicago at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.
The Bears pulled out a 20-13 win over the Matt Stafford-less Lions last Sunday but now find themselves in a miserable spot traveling west to face the Rams in primetime on Sunday night. Chicago's offense is still broken as far as I'm concerned and the Rams have the ability to make the Bears completely one-dimensional by taking away their ground attack altogether. The addition of Jalen Ramsey gives the Rams the ability to take away their opponents' best weapon in the passing game and in this case, if they can limit WR Allen Robinson they should be able to absolutely cripple the Bears offense. Rams QB Jared Goff has been far from great this season and will likely be under duress for much of the night on Sunday. With that being said, I'm not sure Los Angeles will need to score points in bunches to pull away for a comfortable win here. Take Los Angeles (10*).
|11-17-19||Texans v. Ravens -4||7-41||Win||100||16 h 49 m||Show|
My selection is on Baltimore minus the points over Houston at 1 pm et on Sunday.
While this is being pegged as a tightly-contested shootout between MVP candidates DeShaun Watson and Lamar Jackson, I expect it to fizzle with the Ravens imposing their will and winning this one going away. This is arguably the toughest matchup Watson has faced this season, on the road no less. I question whether head coach Bill O'Brien's play-calling can get them there against an elite opponent like the Ravens, to be completely honest. This is a game where the Texans defensive absences, most notably J.J. Watt will really come back to haunt them. At 6-3 I do consider Houston to be a bit of a paper tiger while Baltimore is the real deal, having already taken down the mighty Patriots. Take Baltimore (10*).
|11-14-19||Steelers +3 v. Browns||Top||7-21||Loss||-116||12 h 20 m||Show|
NFL AFC North Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Cleveland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
I have no confidence in the Browns to string together consecutive wins at this stage of the season. Meanwhile, the Steelers have found their identity as a hard-nosed team that runs the football and plays an aggressive, opportunistic brand of defense. Pittsburgh QB Mason Rudolph certainly doesn't instill a great deal of confidence, but he is expected to have RB James Conner back at his disposal on Thursday night and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is in line for a big breakout performance against a Browns defense that has had no success defending receivers in the slot. The Browns have a quality defense and should be able to get after Rudolph in this one, but what about their offense? It's been a sputtering, turnover-prone unit and while RB Kareem Hunt gave them a boost in his debut, I'm not ready to say that the offense is back. Take Pittsburgh (10*).
|11-11-19||Seahawks +6.5 v. 49ers||27-24||Win||100||35 h 9 m||Show|
My selection is on Seattle plus the points over San Francisco at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
The 49ers have a giant target on their backs now as they remain undefeated heading into the second week of November. While the Seahawks and their lagging defense will face a tough challenge here, I'm confident they can at the very least take the Niners down to the wire in Santa Clara. We saw some vulnerability from the Niners defense last week against Arizona and I expect that to continue to be the storyline here on Monday as the Seahawks should find considerable success both on the ground and through the air. The San Francisco run defense in particular is in a tough spot with LB Kwon Alexander sidelined for the season with torn pec. That really opens things up for the Seahawks, whose offense is far more effective when it is able to mix in consistent gains on the ground. Offensively, the 49ers are coming off a fine performance but this is by no means a juggernaut. The Seahawks defense has been a swinging gate at times, but should rise to the occasion in this divisional affair. Take Seattle (10*).
|11-10-19||Vikings v. Cowboys -3||28-24||Loss||-124||11 h 24 m||Show|
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Minnesota at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.
The Cowboys are on an uptick right now fresh off a win over the Giants on Monday night. They're in another favorable spot here, back at home in a primetime affair against a solid but vulnerable Vikings squad. I expect the Minnesota offense to struggle at times in this one as it tries to deal with a healthy and improving Cowboys defense. Offensively, Dallas went through a bit of a lull but things appear to be back in order now and at home in a favored role, I look for it to open things up and ultimately pull away for a convincing victory on Sunday night. Take Dallas (10*).
|11-10-19||Giants v. Jets +3||Top||27-34||Win||100||15 h 44 m||Show|
NFL Game of the Week. My selection is on the Jets plus the points over the Giants at 1 pm et on Sunday.
Things literally can't get any worse for the Jets after they lost at the hands of the winless, supposedly taking Dolphins last week in Miami. I fully expect to see Gang Green bounce back against the rival Giants on Sunday, noting we cashed a ticket fading Big Blue just this past Monday night with the Cowboys. This is an absolute smash spot for the Jets offense against a vulnerable Giants defense playing on a short week. Jets QB Sam Darnold has not played well at all but I still believe he has the tools to succeed in the NFL and I'm confident he'll enjoy a breakout performance against the G-Men and their non-existent pass rush and swiss cheese secondary. Not only is Darnold and the Jets passing game in line for a bounce-back but we should see a big performance from RB Le'Veon Bell as well. Game script kept him from exploding against the Dolphins last Sunday but if the Jets are able to build a lead here, Bell should go off. Take the Jets (10*).
|11-07-19||Chargers v. Raiders||Top||24-26||Loss||-123||25 h 31 m||Show|
NFL TNF Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles over Oakland at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
The Chargers have suddenly found their footing, registering back-to-back wins at Chicago and at home against Green Bay and I look for them to keep it rolling as they face the rival Raiders in Oakland on Thursday night. I really like the way things have come together for the previously underachieving Chargers offense, most notably with RB Melvin Gordon busting out with a big performance against the Packers last Sunday. The door is wide open for this unit to really explode against a beatable Raiders defense on a short week. Oakland does pose a challenge with its own emerging offense but I'm confident the Chargers defense will rise to the occasion. RB Josh Jacobs is the front-runner for offensive rookie of the year but the offense can still only go as far as QB Derek Carr takes it as far as I'm concerned. Take Los Angeles (10*).
|11-04-19||Cowboys -6.5 v. Giants||37-18||Win||100||14 h 31 m||Show|
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New York at 8:15 pm et on Monday.
It's been a disappointing campaign so far for the Cowboys but they remain in the driver's seat in the NFC East and coming off their bye week I look for them to handle the Giants at the Meadowlands on Monday night. I have no confidence in the Giants defense to slow the Cowboys offense here. Dallas got healthy on its offensive line thanks to the bye and that should open the door for QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott to turn in monster performances here. Saquon Barkley will undoubtedly get his, just as he did in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but I'm not convinced rookie QB Daniel Jones will follow suit. Dallas is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in this series, including a win here when it rested its starters in Week 17 last year. Take Dallas (10*).
|11-03-19||Browns v. Broncos +4.5||19-24||Win||100||21 h 43 m||Show|
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Cleveland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
I really like the value we're getting with the Broncos as a home underdog on Sunday afternoon against the disjointed Browns. Cleveland really has no business laying points against anyone right now. It hasn't lived up to expectations on either side of the football and will likely have trouble traveling to altitude in Denver on Sunday. The Broncos have an efficient running game and a solid defense, a recipe for success as a home underdog. Yes, QB Joe Flacco is sidelined but is backup Brandon Allen really a downgrade? Flacco simply hasn't been a good fit in this offense. I like the upside of the Broncos receiving corps led by Courtland Sutton. Look for Denver to do enough to stay inside the number on Sunday. Take Denver (10*).
|11-03-19||Packers v. Chargers +4||11-26||Win||100||21 h 36 m||Show|
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Green Bay at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
Everyone is extremely high on the Packers right now, and for good reason as they're fresh off another statement road win in Kansas City last Sunday night. I just don't like the way this spot sets up for Aaron Rodgers and co. as they stay on the road and head to the west coast to face what has to be a desperate Chargers squad on Sunday. Los Angeles has been highly disappointing this season but there's no question the Chargers still have the talent on board to turn things around. This is obviously a huge step-up spot in a non-conference tilt with a marquee opponent. I'm confident we'll see the Chargers ground attack really get rolling against a beatable Packers run defense. That should set the tone for the rest of the Los Angeles offense, and effectively open things up for QB Philip Rivers. The Chargers defense hasn't been great but could be catching the Packers in a letdown spot off last Sunday night's peak performance. Take Los Angeles (10*).
|11-03-19||Jets -3 v. Dolphins||Top||18-26||Loss||-117||17 h 24 m||Show|
NFL AFC Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Miami at 1 pm et on Sunday.
Everyone is down on the Jets right now but this is a true 'get right' spot against the tanking Dolphins in Miami, and I look for Adam Gase's squad to take full advantage. I absolutely love the 'squeaky wheel' narrative with elite RB Le'Veon Bell calling for more work in advance of Sunday's matchup. Bell will undoubtedly get fed in this one and should absolutely dominate a non-existent Dolphins run defense. QB Sam Darnold has been ridiculed after his 'seeing ghosts' appearance on Monday Night Football but he should have no trouble carving up the Fins struggling secondary on Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the Jets defense is serviceable against the Miami offense - which took another step back in a miserable second half in Pittsburgh on Monday night. Take New York (10*).
|10-31-19||49ers v. Cardinals +10.5||28-25||Win||100||13 h 3 m||Show|
My selection is on Arizona plus the points over San Francisco at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
Most believe a 49ers win is a foregone conclusion in this one as San Francisco checks in with an unblemished record on the season while the Cardinals are coming off a beatdown at the hands of the Saints in New Orleans last Sunday. I don't believe the Niners are built to cover these big pointspreads, however, and here will face an improving Arizona squad that has won three of its last four games and hasn't allowed a first quarter touchdown in its last two contests. The Cards are likely going to be missing their top two running backs for this one but did acquire Kenyon Drake from the Dolphins earlier this week and it really hasn't mattered who they have plugged in at running back, they have performed well. San Francisco will be content to win this division road game, let alone cover the spread. We'll grab the points with a hungry Cards squad that has gone an impressive 5-3 ATS to date. Take Arizona (10*).
|10-27-19||Packers v. Chiefs +5||31-24||Loss||-102||26 h 23 m||Show|
My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over Green Bay at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.
The last time we saw the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football they suffered a shocking loss to the Colts. That was with Patrick Mahomes at the helm. Now Kansas City enters this primetime showdown with journeyman QB Matt Moore under center and few are giving it much of a chance against the red hot Packers. I don't expect the Chiefs to simply roll over. Kansas City has been all over opposing quarterbacks this season and Sunday should be no different against the Packers mediocre offensive line. Note that the Chiefs will have DT Chris Jones back at their disposal, and his presence should really limit the Packers ability to rip off big gains on the ground. Green Bay's passing game has held up well in WR DaVante Adams absence, but this could be the contest where that starts to turn. Defensively, the Packers have been abused by opposing rushing attacks, allowing just a tick shy of five yards per rush this season. That opens the door for the Chiefs limited offense in the absence of Mahomes. As we saw last Thursday night against an elite defense in Denver, even Matt Moore is able to find some success with the talent of WR Tyreek Hill on the field. I'm not sure the Chiefs offense will even be asked to do too much to keep this one competitive, but they might just come through regardless. Take Kansas City (10*).
|10-27-19||Raiders v. Texans -6||Top||24-27||Loss||-109||23 h 34 m||Show|
NFL Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston minus the points over Oakland at 4:25 pm et on Sunday.
The Raiders are in a really tough spot here, still on the road at the tail-end of what has been an excruciatingly long stretch of games away from home and coming off an epic beatdown at the hands of the Packers last Sunday. Things don't figure to get any easier in Houston on Sunday as the Texans enter a terrific bounce-back spot off last week's divisional loss in Indianapolis. QB DeShaun Watson and the Texans offense should have a field day against the Raiders undermanned defense, which dealt top CB Gareon Conley to Houston earlier in the week. The Raiders haven't exactly waved the white flag just yet, but at 3-3 the time is coming. Offensively, Oakland has been better than expected but with RB Josh Jacobs limited and possibly even sidelined by a shoulder injury, it will be in a really difficult situation here. Jacobs has been a dynamic playmaker but the Raiders don't have much depth in the backfield. While I'm not all that high on the Texans defense, I do think they'll be playing from ahead for much of the day on Sunday, and can gameplan aggressively against mistake-prone QB Derek Carr. Look for Houston to eventually stretch out the margin in this one. Take Houston (10*).
|10-27-19||Jets +7.5 v. Jaguars||Top||15-29||Loss||-140||20 h 35 m||Show|
NFL AFC Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Jacksonville at 1 pm et on Sunday.
The Jets are coming off a dreadful performance on both sides of the football on Monday night against the Patriots. I do feel they'll bounce back here, however, as they head to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. The Jags defense has been exploited by opposing running backs this season as they check in allowing just shy of five yards per rush. Off a poor offensive showing on Monday, look for the Jets to feed RB Le'Veon Bell in this one. On the flip side, the Jets defense has been exceptional against the run, allowing just north of 3.2 yards per rush. That should severely limit what the Jags are able to do offensively, as despite all the Gardner Minshew hype, QB Leonard Fournette has been, and will continue to be the key to their offense. Take New York (10*).
|10-27-19||Bengals v. Rams -11||10-24||Win||100||19 h 25 m||Show|
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cincinnati at 1 pm et on Sunday.
This one has blowout written all over it as the Rams aim to follow-up last week's 'get right' win over Atlanta and head across the pond for what should be a much-needed distraction in what has been a bit of a tumultuous start to the season. The Bengals are awful. They can't stop the run, continue to deal with key injuries in the secondary, and sport an uneven offense that has been completely handicapped by an ineffictive offensive line. We can count on Rams QB Jared Goff to turn in a second straight solid performance facing little pressure against a non-existent Cincinnati pass rush. Meanwhile, the Rams backfield tandem of Todd Gurley and Darrell Henderson should run wild against a Bengals defense that allows just shy of five yards per rush this season, effectively putting this game away in the second half. Take Los Angeles (10*).
|10-24-19||Redskins v. Vikings -15.5||9-19||Loss||-110||35 h 51 m||Show|
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Washington at 8:20 pm et on Thursday.
It seems as if big pointspreads have become the norm in these primetime games and this Thursday’s contest is no different. Once again, I’m not sure the oddsmakers can set the line high enough as the Vikings should have little trouble brushing aside the lowly Redskins. Washington has such little upside at this point it’s almost laughable. WR Terry McLaurin has arguably been its lone bright spot and while he should get his in this matchup with a beatable Vikings pass defense, that’s no reason to jump off the Vikings in a game that has true blowout potential. We’ve already seen Redskins interim head coach Bill Callahan orchestrate an offensive gameplan centred around the rushing attack, and more specifically RB Adrian Peterson. That gameplan just isn’t likely to work against a Vikings front that has been terrific against the run this season. With the ‘Skins likely to fall behind early, they may be forced to air it out but their comeback potential is limited given the fact that Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer knows former Minnesota QB Case Keenum’s tendencies and limitations. Minnesota will be without WR Adam Thielen for this game and while that’s a major hit, I still see this as a blow up spot for the Vikes offense. QB Kirk Cousins will be given clean pockets all night long against a Redskins defense that hasn’t been able to get to opposing quarterbacks at all this season. Meanwhile, RB Dalvin Cook is in line for another monster performance against a defense that can be run on and has gone nothing to eliminate short passing plays to opposing running backs. With the Vikes likely to dominate the time-of-possession battle, it’s only a matter of time before this one gets out of hand. Take Minnesota (10*).
|10-20-19||Eagles +3 v. Cowboys||Top||10-37||Loss||-120||24 h 41 m||Show|
NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Dallas at 8:20 pm et on Sunday.
I absolutely love the way this spot sets up for the Eagles as they try to bounce back from last week’s tough loss in Minnesota. Philadelphia continues to perform at an elite level offensively, despite the fact that it has dealt with a number of key injuries at the wide receiver position this season. QB Carson Wentz remains one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league and he’s set to expose an injury-ravaged Cowboys defense on Sunday night. Dallas is coming off back-to-back devastating losses, with the most recent being particular painful at the hands of the lowly Jets. With WR Amari Cooper likely to miss and RB Ezekiel Elliott busy running into piles there’s little reason to have much confidence in the Cowboys offense right now. Head coach Jason Garrett is on the hot seat again and I’m not sure that we’ll see the team rally around him this time around. While everyone was singing the praises of Cowboys first-year offensive coordinator Kellen Moore earlier this season, things have gotten stale in a hurry. Look for the Eagles pass rush to take advantage of the Cowboys injuries on the offensive line (Tyron Smith and La’El Collins are expected to miss) and make life difficult for QB Dak Prescott all night long. The case can be made that the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Philadelphia (10*).