Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-08-21 | North Dakota +11 v. Oral Roberts | Top | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH DAKOTA North Dakota isn’t all that good (2-9 SU record), but Oral Roberts probably shouldn’t be laying double digits to anybody. ORU has covered its last six lined games, but four of those were SU losses where they were underdogs of at least 10 points. They did sweep Omaha last week, winning 95-83 and 86-75, to get Summit League play off to a nice start. But they were short favorites for both games. You should look for North Dakota to be competitive Friday night, even though they really haven’t been on the road thus far. This basically boils down to the fact that Oral Roberts has not been favored by more than three points against anyone this season. They hadn’t been favored - in any game - before the sweep of Omaha last weekend nor had they beaten a single Division I opponent! We don’t think North Dakota is as bad as the oddsmakers seem to as they’ve done a decent job defensively in conference play, holding teams to just 64.0 points/game. The Fighting Hawks are 4-0 ATS following a double digit loss at home. Grab the points in this one. Play on NORTH DAKOTA AAA | |||||||
01-08-21 | Ohio +3.5 v. Toledo | Top | 78-95 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO Ohio U has not beaten Toledo once in its last five tries and this time they’ve got to face the Rockets when they are on a six-game win streak and have covered five straight. But while Ohio had a rough three-game stretch at the end of 2020 - losing to Marshall, Akron and Bowling Green - they’ve rebounded nicely with wins over Ball State and Northern Illinois to start 2021. The Bobcats did hang with Illinois earlier this season (lost by just two in Champaign-Urbana) and are one of the better offensive teams in the MAC with a 55.7 effective field goal percentage, which ranks 26th in the country. That they’ve been able to maintain that offensive efficiency despite playing without leading scorer Jason Preston (questionable for tonight) the last three games is pretty impressive. Toledo won by just two points its last time out and while they were three-point underdogs, they don’t have the luxury of winning by such a narrow margin again tonight. We smell upset tonight in the Mid-American Conference. You should take the points here. Play on OHIO AAA | |||||||
01-07-21 | BYU +17.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GONZAGA In our view, you won’t find a better team in the country than Gonzaga, who is not just 10-0 but also winning their games by an average margin of 30.6 points per game. They just blew out one of the better WCC teams (San Francisco) in their last game, 85-62, which was the Zags’ fourth straight victory by at least 23 points. One of those was against Virginia, so it’s not like it’s been all bad teams they’ve been facing. Like we said earlier, San Francisco is a good team and they destroyed them. Now comes BYU, also recognized as one of the potential “challengers” to Gonzaga’s reign of dominance in this conference. Don’t look for this one to be close either. BYU has already been beaten once this year by 26 points (USC) and also lost at home to Boise State. Complicating matters for the visitors is the fact Gonzaga will be out to avenge a late-season loss from last year. The three prior meetings all saw the Zags win by at least 23 points. Look for another 20+ point win tonight. Play on GONZAGA AAA | |||||||
01-07-21 | 76ers v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN Brooklyn’s first game without Kevin Durant (in quarantine) could not possibly have gone any better as they thwarted the Jazz 130-96 as a 5-point home underdog. Oddsmakers have apparently NOT learned their lesson as they’ve once again installed the Nets as home dogs tonight vs. Philadelphia. Granted, the Sixers have the best overall record in the Eastern Conference at 7-1. However, look at who they’ve played: Washington twice, New York, Cleveland, Toronto, Orlando and Charlotte twice. All are struggling teams that we don’t think are going to finish anywhere near the top of the standings. This is the second game of a back to back for Philly as they won a wild 141-136 game against the Wizards last night. We’ve got these teams rated pretty evenly, so it’s a mistake to have Brooklyn as an underdog at home even with Durant out, given the Sixers are playing without rest. Kyrie Irving made his first nine shots against Utah and finished with 29 points. He may not be quite as prolific tonight, but we don’t need him to be. All we are looking for is a win, it doesn’t need to be by 34 points like we saw Monday. There is no way the shots are going to fall for Philly tonight the way they did Wednesday. Play on BROOKLYN AAA | |||||||
01-06-21 | Boston College v. Duke -11 | Top | 82-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DUKE It’s been almost a month (12/16) since Duke last took the court. That last game was a 75-65 win over Notre Dame and the first time they covered a spread this season (were only 1-point favorites). Losing to Michigan State and Illinois - as the Blue Devils did - isn’t that big of a deal. We like Coach K to have another productive ACC season and a Boston College team that’s dropped six of its last seven games isn’t going to provide much of a challenge tonight. The Eagles only win since November came against Maine. They are giving up a ton of points, 81.1 per game to be exact. St. Johns, Syracuse, Minnesota and Florida all scored at least 85 against this team. Duke is better than all four of those teams and should score in that neighborhood. Making matters worse for BC is that they were pretty inept at the offensive end vs. Louisville over the weekend. They shot just 33.8% and missed 25 of 33 three point attempts. No path to be competitive here for BC. Play on DUKE AAA | |||||||
01-06-21 | Pistons v. Bucks -12 | Top | 115-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks beat the Pistons by 10 points on Monday and should win by a much larger margin tonight. While it’s going to be tough for the Bucks to shoot the ball better than they did Monday, they can help themselves by defending better. Detroit shouldn’t score 115 again as they usually don’t do well in games that have a total of 220 points or more. They are just 19-36 ATS in such games. They are also only 11-24 ATS L35 division games. Milwaukee is 27-8 ATS its last 35 division games. Then you’ve got the head to head. The Bucks are 12-0 SU the L12 meetings, going 10-1-1 ATS. The Pistons have given up an average of 117.6 points/game this season and that’s obviously not going to cut it against the league’s top scoring team. The Bucks can name the score here. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
01-05-21 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -15.5 | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS TECH It’s been a while since Texas Tech (0-6 ATS L6) covered a game. You’d actually have to go back to December 9th to find the last time the #18 ranked Red Raiders were the winners at the betting window. But that’s what happens sometimes when you’re favored in every game. We happen to think this team is much better than its current ranking in the polls and view tonight as a “buy low” opportunity as they welcome Kansas State to Lubbock. Remember that K-State lost to Fort Hayes State, a non-Division I school, at home earlier this season. Texas Tech has six wins by 20 or more points, so don’t be worried about laying the “big” number here. Again, with that many blowout victories you wouldn’t think they’d be struggling to cover games. The Red Raiders are off a loss here, 82-77 to Oklahoma State on Saturday, a game that went to overtime. But this is a drop in class. Three of Kansas State’s five wins have come by four points or fewer, so they easily could be even worse off than 5-6 SU. When the Wildcats played Baylor, they lost by 31 at home. That’s the only ranked opponent they’ve faced so far. They were down by 17 at home to TCU on Saturday. The Wildcats turn the ball over too much and you can’t do that against one of the best defensive teams in the country like Texas Tech. Tonight won’t go well for the visitors. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA | |||||||
01-04-21 | Knicks v. Hawks -6 | Top | 113-108 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA Before the season started, we identified Atlanta as a possible “sleeper” team in the Eastern Conference. Sure enough, the Hawks got off to a 4-1 start and were “flying high.” But they came crashing down with a surprise home loss to Cleveland Saturday night and that should have them ready to rock when they host another bad team, the Knicks, Monday night. Prior to coming up short vs. the Cavs, the Hawks only loss was by four points at Brooklyn. Their only non-cover came in an eight-point win against the Pistons. They were 11-pt chalk vs. Detroit and that’s what we think the line should be here, so it’s a real bargain on the home side. The Knicks have pulled some shocking upsets already, the latest was them winning as a 10-point dog at Indiana on Saturday. But when they lose, they lose big. All three losses this season have come by double digits. Something to keep in mind with Atlanta is they had a 15-point lead against Cleveland before a sloppy second half led to them giving the game away. This is the Knicks’ 4th straight game on the road and we don’t see them having much left in the tank. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
01-04-21 | Stanford v. Oregon State +6.5 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON STATE Dangerous spot for Stanford to be laying points here. This is the second road game in three nights and they are off a 73-56 loss to Oregon. Oregon State has won three straight and their 5-3 WL record is a bit misleading as all three Beavers’ losses were by four points or fewer. They are eight points away from having a perfect 8-0 SU record, so we will gladly take the points Monday afternoon in Corvallis. OSU was a 73-64 winner on Saturday against Cal. Defensively, the Beavers have been stout, allowing more than 64 points in only two games thus far. Stanford has covered only three games all year and is 0-2 ATS when playing with one or zero days rest. Senior guard Daejon Davis did not play on Saturday and is listed as questionable for this one. Play on OREGON STATE AAA | |||||||
01-03-21 | Houston v. SMU +2.5 | Top | 74-60 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SMU This was “supposed” to be a battle of unbeatens, but #5 Houston “ruined” that when they went out and got beat 65-64 by Tulsa last Tuesday. Now the Cougars are not only off a loss, but playing for third straight time on the road and it’s against 6-0 SMU, who is not ranked but obviously still undefeated. The Mustangs have enjoyed a strong home court edge here at Moody Coliseum, winning 29 of their last 39 games here. While having the home court edge in 2021 isn’t what it “used to be,” we still look for SMU to keep its unbeaten run going Sunday night. They are 5-1 ATS after beating Temple Wednesday and defeated Houston last year, 73-72, here at home. Houston has not shot well the last two games (below 36.0 FG%) and that’s a problem when facing a SMU squad that comes in averaging 84.2 points/game. Three straight road games is always tough, especially when the third is against a quality foe. Laying points here sounds bad, so we’ll take ‘em! Play on SMU AAA | |||||||
01-03-21 | Cardinals +4 v. Rams | Top | 7-18 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA This is one of the more important games on the Week 17 slate. Whomever wins is in the playoffs. If the Cardinals lose, they are out. If the Rams lose, they would need the Bears to lose (at home vs. GB) to get in. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, they don’t have Jared Goff as he was forced to undergo surgery on his injured thumb. That means John Wolford will be making his 1st career NFL start. It’s a rough spot to debut in and complicating matters is the fact COVID has taken out several other Rams. This is a great chance for Arizona to end a seven-game losing skid to LA. The sense of urgency is greater on the Cardinals’ sideline and while they’ve REALLY struggled to cover games down the stretch, this is really a tailor-made spot with all the Rams absences. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
01-03-21 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -114 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CAROLINA We liked Carolina plus the points here even before it was announced New Orleans would be without RB Alvin Kamara. Kamara is a big loss for a Saints team trying to earn home field advantage in the NFC. He tied a NFL record with SIX touchdowns on Christmas Day! But even with Kamara it was rather unlikely the Saints were going to get the top spot in the conference. They need not just a win, but the Packers to lose and the Seahawks to win. The Panthers have nothing to play for (in terms of playoffs), but should relish the “spoiler” role. They just won at Washington last week and the Football Team was fighting for its playoff life. Obviously, there is a big difference between the Football Team and the Saints. But don’t be surprised if New Orleans “folds their tent” early here if they learn Green Bay is winning in Chicago. Carolina is 8-1 ATS its last nine games as an underdog and QB Teddy Bridgewater is 22-5 ATS as an underdog in his career. Play on CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
01-03-21 | Packers -5 v. Bears | Top | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on GREEN BAY Green Bay can earn the #1 seed (and home field advantage) with a win over Chicago in Week 17. The Bears need a win (or Cardinals loss) to get in the playoffs. We look for Aaron Rodgers to continue his mastery over the “Monsters of the Midway” and lead his team to the top seed in the NFC. The Packers were our Game of the Month last week as they destroyed Tennessee 40-14 on Sunday Night Football. It was their fifth consecutive win and they are now 12-3. No clue how the Bears have worked their way back into playoff contention. This is a team that lost six in a row at one point. They’ve been favored just three times all season, one of those being last week against Jacksonville. When these NFC North rivals met the first time, it was all Pack in a 41-25 win that wasn’t even that close (another SNF game). The Bears’ offense has seemingly come alive after that loss with four straight games where they scored 30 or more points. But they faced a slew of bad defenses (Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville). Who do you trust more? Rodgers or Mitch Trubisky? Rodgers is 18-7 ATS all-time vs. the Bears. Play on GREEN BAY AAA | |||||||
01-03-21 | Raiders -2 v. Broncos | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAS VEGAS This will be the first time the Raiders are favored in Denver since 1995. Nothing is on the line but pride in this Week 17 AFC West matchup as both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Denver has known its fate for a while now, but Las Vegas was officially eliminated last week with a painful loss to Miami. It was their third straight setback, all of them at home, so maybe getting away from Sin City will be good for them. Unless something drastic changes here, the Broncos will go the entire season without being favored a single time. That right there should tell you what the oddsmakers think of Vic Fangio’s team. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in division games this year and have covered the last five times they’ve faced Denver. It was a 37-12 win in the first meeting of 2020. The Broncos have the worst turnover margin in the league and possibly the longest injury list. A win here would give Las Vegas a .500 season and allow them to get Over the projected season win total of 7.5. Derek Carr is still projected to start, but even Marcus Mariota is capable of beating the lowly Broncos. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA | |||||||
01-02-21 | North Carolina v. Texas A&M -7 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS A&M The Orange Bowl pits 8-3 North Carolina against 8-1 Texas A&M. The 5th ranked Aggies were the 1st team “left out” of the College Football Playoff and we believe they will take their frustrations out on a Tar Heels team that may very well be “just happy to be here.” It’s been awhile since UNC was in a major bowl game like this. Don’t worry about laying the number as A&M is 7-1 - both straight up and against the spread - as a 3.5 to 10 point favorite the last three seasons. Over the same time period, North Carolina is 1-10 SU when an underdog in that same point range. The Tar Heels defense can be shaky as it allowed 44 or more points three times in the regular season. They did not face Clemson, but did face Notre Dame and in that game the offense was held to a season-low 17 points. Other than that game, the schedule wasn’t very tough. Texas A&M had to run the SEC gauntlet and their only loss was to Alabama. They are on a six-game win streak with all six wins coming by at least 11 points. The Aggies have a huge edge defensively in this matchup as they are allowing just 21.1 points/game and that number gets a lot lower when you factor out Alabama and Florida. Six times they held their opponents under 21 points. Lay it. Play on TEXAS A&M AAA | |||||||
01-02-21 | North Dakota State v. Western Illinois +6.5 | Top | 68-50 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
Play on WESTERN ILLINOIS We’re digging deep into the Saturday card with a play from the Summit League. These are hardly two of the better performing teams from this conference, but what we have here is a not-so-good team laying points on the road. North Dakota State has played the likes of Kansas, Creighton and TCU pretty tough so far. But now they’re a favorite for just the third time this year and first time on the road. The Bison’s two victories have been by a total of eight points. So they are not a team you’d want to back in this situation. Western Illinois has yet to play a conference game (NDSU has played three). The Leathernecks have generally been competitive, except for when they faced Iowa (season opener) and Depaul (last game). While they may not have liked it, getting blown out by Iowa is fine. As for the loss to Depaul, it was their third straight road game and right before the Holidays. This will be just the second game in Macomb for the Leathernecks and we like them getting points against a team that’s shooting only 40.2% from the field thus far. Play on WESTERN ILLINOIS AAA | |||||||
01-02-21 | Iowa -3 v. Rutgers | Top | 77-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is a very good basketball team. That should be obvious by their #10 ranking. You don’t get that high in the polls by being mediocre. But we think the Hawkeyes happen to be even BETTER than that #10 ranking and they’ll show it Saturday at Rutgers. Iowa comes in at 8-2 while averaging 94.3 points per contest. One of the losses was to #1 Gonzaga and the other was in overtime. Last Tuesday they took care of #19 Northwestern 87-72. Now it’s another ranked opponent, this one on the road. But is Rutgers really as good as its #14 ranking? We don’t think so. They did beat Illinois here in East Brunswick, NJ. After that was their only loss of the year, which was on the road (Ohio State). The Scarlet Knights bounced back by beating Purdue Tuesday. Iowa is the best team they will have faced. The Hawkeyes do not turn the ball over much (4th lowest rate in the country) and Rutgers doesn’t turn their opponents over much. Iowa is #1 in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 7-2 all-time vs. Rutgers. Play on IOWA AAA | |||||||
01-01-21 | Notre Dame +20 v. Alabama | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME The Rose Bowl is in Arlington, TX this year and Alabama is a monster favorite over Notre Dame in the first of the two CFP semifinals. While we do expect the Crimson Tide to win this game, look for the Fighting Irish to score enough to cover the spread. Bama just gave up 46 points (to Florida) in the SEC Championship Game. While Notre Dame got held to 10 points in the ACC Championship Game, they had scored at least 31 in six straight and eight of nine before that. This is a truly massive spread and while ND probably isn’t in the same league as Alabama, we find it hard to believe they should be this large of an underdog against ANYONE. Taking on Clemson at a neutral site, they were only 11-point dogs. Yes, they were blown out, but that’s led to a real overadjustment from the oddsmakers. The Irish are 6-3 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit dog (goes way back, to 2008). For all the talk of Nick Saban in big games, Bama is only 3-6 ATS its L9 CFP games and 0-3 ATS the last three. This is the third highest spread in bowl HISTORY (not just the CFP). We simply HAVE to take the points. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA | |||||||
12-31-20 | Nevada -6 v. New Mexico | Top | 68-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 8* on NEVADA Similar to the San Diego-San Francisco matchup, the favorite for this game has been far more “active” in the early part of the season. Nevada has played eight games compared to only five for New Mexico. The Wolf Pack could only manage a split of two home games vs. Air Force, losing the second one by two points despite being an 11.5-point favorite. They are back in the favorite role tonight, and for good reason as New Mexico just lost twice in a row at Boise State. Those losses were by 24 and 37 points. Two of the Lobos' three wins this year came against non-Division I opponents that go by the names of Our Lady of the Lake and Letorneau. Not exactly NCAA Tournament resume builders! Don’t care that this game is in Albuquerque as Nevada is a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times it has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. New Mexico is just 11-24 ATS vs. teams with winning records and has lost three straight times to Nevada - all by double digits. Play on NEVADA AAA | |||||||
12-31-20 | Knicks v. Raptors -9 | Top | 83-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto is 0-3, both straight up and against the spread, but here comes the Knicks to rectify that problem. Now the Knicks have won two straight including a shocking upset of Milwaukee. So the Raptors need to take this game seriously. Given their record, you have to think they will. They have beaten the Knicks eight consecutive times. New York is going to be really short-handed for this one due to multiple injuries. A near skeleton crew playing on the road on New Year’s Eve probably isn’t going to bring out the best effort from them. The 130 points they scored against Milwaukee was a fairly “head-scratching” performance while the other win was “only” against lowly Cleveland, who shot 36.4% from the field. The Knicks lost by double digits each of the first two games. We know the Raptors aren’t able to play in Toronto yet (home games are in Tampa, FL for now), but this is one they badly need as they seek to avoid their worst start to a season in a decade and a half. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
12-31-20 | Kings v. Rockets -5 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON A lot of drama in Houston (COVID, James Harden) has resulted in an 0-2 start, but the Rockets should finally blast off tonight against Sacramento. The Kings are beating the odds thus far with a 3-1 start that has seen them face both the Nuggets and Suns twice. They were underdogs in all four of those games, just as they are here. But three of those four games were at home. Two of the wins came by three points or less. Seems like the Kings are due for a “reality check” on New Year’s Eve as Houston has gone 6-1, both straight up and against the spread, vs. them the previous two seasons. John Wall is set to make his Rockets debut here as he and two other players return from quarantine. The others are Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. The Rockets were only able to travel with nine players for their two road games because of COVID protocols. This looks to be an obvious spot where they get things going in a positive direction. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
12-31-20 | San Diego v. San Francisco -12.5 | Top | 62-70 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO San Francisco has been far more “active” than San Diego heading into the WCC opener for both teams. The Dons have played 10 games thus far, though only one of those came here at home. They are 6-4 with two of the losses coming fairly recently, on the road against Pac 12 schools (Cal and Oregon). Their most recent game was a 68-65 victory over Grand Canyon University. San Diego is just 1-3 and the last time we saw them (12 days ago), they were being blown out (by 32 points) at UC Irvine. That doesn’t bode well for the Toreros today. They’ve lost two of their three road games by at least 27 points. USF should be quite thrilled to be playing at home on New Year’s Eve. In their only home game thus far, the Dons put up 107 points on Long Beach State. So far they’ve won three times by at least 25 points. So lay the double digit spread in this one. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA | |||||||
12-31-20 | Mississippi State v. Tulsa -2.5 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -110 | 193 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA This year’s Armed Forces Bowl pits 3-7 Mississippi State against 6-2 Tulsa. In any other year, Miss St would NOT have gotten a bowl invite. So we’ll relish the opportunity to play against Mike Leach’s Bulldogs in this one. While they did end the regular season with a somewhat impressive 52-31 win against Missouri (only win over a bowl team), prior to that MSU had lost three in a row and seven of its last eight. The only win in those eight games came against Vanderbilt. Tulsa is a feisty 6-2 and ranked #24 in the country. They have an excellent defense that shut down the likes of UCF, SMU and Oklahoma State. Even in the AAC Championship Game where they lost 27-24 to undefeated Cincinnati, the Golden Hurricane defense did an excellent job. That game was decided on a field goal as time expired. Tulsa’s only other loss was at Oklahoma State and they led there in the second half. This is a really strong team, much better than MSU on both sides of the football. It is absolutely remarkable that we are able to get them laying so few points to a team as bad as Mississippi State. The only reason this line is so low is because MSU is an SEC team. But Tulsa isn’t facing an SEC All-Star team here, or even a good SEC team. Miss State’s offense is terrible, ranking outside the top 100 in most key categories. They were held to 14 points or less in five of their nine games. They cannot run the ball at all. They average only 36 yards/game rushing, which is LAST in the country. The weather isn’t expected to be nice in Fort Worth, TX on New Year’s Eve and that favors Tulsa. A truly incredible matchup for the Golden Hurricane, who can make a national statement to end 2020. Play on TULSA AAA | |||||||
12-30-20 | Lakers -5 v. Spurs | Top | 121-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA LAKERS We’ve seen how the Lakers perform off a loss before and it was a 138-115 thrashing of Dallas on Christmas night. They are off a loss again tonight as they fell 115-107 to Portland on Monday. Their first road game of the year is tonight in San Antonio where they’ll face a Spurs team that is 3-0 ATS. This is the first of two straight games here in the Alamo as the teams play again on New Year’s Day. Though it was the second night of a back to back, it was a little surprising to see the Lakers falter down the stretch against Portland. It was the first time in more than a year that they lost a game in which they led going into the 4th quarter (59-0 previously). But they didn’t get much production off the bench (only 23 points) and thus couldn’t finish the job. However, we like them to finish here as the Spurs only scored 95 points against New Orleans on Sunday, their first loss of the 2020-21 season. We don’t expect much from San Antonio this year and they lost all three times they played the Lakers in 2019-2020. All three games were decided by at least seven points and two were at home. Play on LA LAKERS AAA | |||||||
12-30-20 | La Salle v. Dayton -12 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DAYTON We don’t anticipate Dayton having any problems with A-10 rival LaSalle on Wednesday. The Flyers are double digit favorites here for a reason, namely a 33-5 SU home record the L3 seasons. Quietly, they’ve also gone 54-14 SU overall during that time frame. They are off to a 4-1 start this year, the only loss coming by two points. Every Dayton game has been decided by six points or less with four of them decided by a total of 11 points. But the two most recent wins both came against SEC teams. LaSalle is not a good team as they are 3-5 and really struggling to score when not at home. The Explorers come in averaging only 60.8 points/game when playing on the road or at a neutral site. That’s problematic considering Dayton only allows 62.7 points/game at home. The last two meetings between these two sides have seen the Flyers prevail by 26 and 31 points. LaSalle scored only 39 and 58 points. It’s gonna get ugly again tonight. Play on DAYTON AAA | |||||||
12-30-20 | Wisconsin -8.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN So Wisconsin had a really underwhelming regular season. The Badgers were supposed to waltz their way to the Big 10 Championship and face Ohio State. Instead, they lost three games. In each of those three losses, which came in a row, they were held to 7 points or less. That was downright shocking. So now the Badgers end up facing a 4-4 Wake Forest team in the Mayo Bowl. As they were for every regular season contest, Wisconsin is favored here. The underdog role suits Wake Forest well as they went 3-0 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But there is a massive gap between these two teams on the defensive side of the ball. Wisconsin allows 15.7 points/game. WF allows more than double that (31.6) and a frightening 40.8 points/game when they play outside of Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons have played just one game since November 14th and it was a 24-point loss to Louisville. They’ve allowed 104 points their last two games. Wisconsin has won five of its last six bowl games, the only loss coming by a single point to Oregon in last year’s Rose Bowl. We still believe in this team and think they’ll roll here as the offense gets on track against a bad defensive team. Play on WISCONSIN AAA | |||||||
12-29-20 | Bucks v. Heat +5.5 | Top | 144-97 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs where Miami “stunned” Milwaukee with a 4-1 series win. The Bucks are just 1-2 to start the year with road losses to the Celtics and Knicks. Their only win, Christmas Day vs. Golden State was at home. Losing to the Knicks is embarrassing enough but giving up 130 points was really bad. Considering that loss and the revenge angle, we are anticipating “everyone” to be on the Bucks here, but the spread is too high. Miami hasn’t played since Christmas when they easily handled the Pelicans. That 111-98 win was reminiscent of the team we saw go all the way to the NBA Finals back in October. Probably no Jimmy Butler tonight, but that’s okay as the Heat can still turn to a deep roster that’s led by Bam Adebayo’s team-high 21.0 PPG scoring average. The team is also 10-3 SU/9-3 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. The Bucks aren’t getting much offensive production beyond their top two scorers (Giannis, Middleton) and the defense looked very shaky in both defeats. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
12-29-20 | Florida State +1.5 v. Clemson | Top | 67-77 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FSU Clemson’s only loss this season came exactly two weeks ago when they visited Virginia Tech. So far that is the Tigers’ only road game and it’s their only ACC game as well. They bounced back from that defeat last Monday by beating Morehead State 66-51 and while they did lead by as many as 24 in the second half, they ended up not coming close to covering the 26-point spread. Tonight they face #18 Florida State, who also has just one loss on the year. Like Clemson, the Seminoles are off a win following a loss. They lost to UCF, 86-74 at home, before bouncing back against Gardner Webb last Monday. They also did not cover a large spread last time out. While this will be the Noles first true road test and they are just 6-17 ATS L23 visits to Death Valley, we like them getting points in this spot. Last season, they were favored to win here (lost by 1) and also beat the Tigers by 18 down in Tallahassee. FSU is on an 8-5 ATS run as underdogs with six outright victories. This is the first time they have gotten points in 2020. Save for the loss to UCF, FSU’s defense has been good in every game this season and they are the best team Clemson will have faced so far. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA | |||||||
12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +1.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI For the first time this bowl season, we’ve got a matchup of ranked teams! #21 Oklahoma State takes on #18 Miami in this year’s Cheez-It Bowl, which goes down Tuesday evening in Orlando, FL. Though the programs can both claim to have had Jimmy Johnson as a head coach, they’ve met only one time and that was in 1991. This line is trending towards ‘pick ‘em’ territory after OSU opened as a three-point favorite. We agree with this move as Miami will be the more motivated side coming off the butt-kicking they took at the hands of North Carolina in the last game. The Hurricanes only other loss this year was to Clemson. Oklahoma State has a good defense, but it’s third down numbers probably won’t translate to the bowl game facing talented Miami QB D’Eriq King, who has accounted for more than 3000 total yards and 26 touchdowns. OSU’s best offensive player, RB Chuba Hubbard, has opted out of this game. So that’s a break for the Miami defense. Getting this game “up the road” in Orlando is another advantage. The most motivating factor of them all is that Miami will be looking to reverse some “ugly” recent bowl history (1-9 L10) including last year’s unforgivable 14-0 loss to Louisiana Tech. Now they have King and we expect them to play well. Oklahoma State had failed to cover five in a row before beating Baylor in their last game. Play on MIAMI FL AAA | |||||||
12-28-20 | Rockets +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON This seems like a lot of points for Houston to be getting? With the James Harden saga and COVID cancelling their first game, the Rockets are seemingly being “written off.” But they did take Portland to overtime in their only game played so far (lost 128-126) and easily covered a spread similar to this one. Harden scored 44 points and didn’t seem the least bit bothered by the drama. Denver is 0-2 right now with home losses to Sacramento and the Clippers. The Sacramento game went to overtime, but they were straight out blitzed X-mas night by LA. The expectation here will be that Denver “can’t” lose a third straight game at home. But that line of thinking has led to an inflated number, which we will gladly grab. The Rockets are 8-3 ATS the L11 meetings with the Nuggets and 25-19 ATS their L44 as underdogs. They flat out seem “mis-priced” in the early going this year. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
12-28-20 | Bills -7 v. Patriots | Top | 38-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO The Bills are AFC East Champs for the 1st time since 1995. They will be either the #2 or #3 seed once the playoffs begin. The #2 seed gets to play the Wild Card with the worst record, so there still is something to play for here. Not to mention a season sweep of the Patriots, which the Bills haven’t done since 1999. New England has fallen hard in 2020 as Cam Newton simply could not fill the shoes of Tom Brady. Not many though he would, but 6-8 isn’t what you’d expect from the Patriots. Buffalo’s primetime woes are now a thing of the past as they’ve won three straight night games. Now it’s time to exorcise some more demons. Giving Bill Belichick his 1st losing season since his 1st year in Foxboro would be something. New England has scored just 15 points - total - the last two games and averages only 20.6 per game for the year. Buffalo put up 48 points last week in a laugher over Denver (we had the Bills) and is putting up 29.1 points/game. It’s now the Patriots that are just 1-4 ATS in primetime this year and they also haven’t covered a game (in four tries) when playing with extra rest. Buffalo has covered six in a row and QB Josh Allen is peaking at the right time. The Bills defense has allowed less than 20 points three of the past four weeks. Play on BUFFALO AAA | |||||||
12-27-20 | Suns -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 116-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHOENIX Phoenix will look to avenge last night’s 106-103 loss in Sacramento, which was their first ATS loss in 10 games going back to last season’s bubble. They’d also won all nine games straight up. Sacramento is 2-0 with those wins coming by two and three points. They opened with an overtime win against Denver, but just as easily could be 0-2 right now. We can’t really see 3-0 happening for the Kings. So we’ll lay a short number with the Suns in this immediate revenge spot. Huge edges in rebounding and free throw attempts were key for the Kings last night. It’s atypical they enjoy such large advantages in those areas. Play on PHOENIX AAA | |||||||
12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers -3 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 129 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GREEN BAY A win Sunday night could give the Packers the coveted #1 overall seed in the NFC. Remember that only one team - per conference - receives a first round bye starting with this year’s playoffs. The possibility of getting that top seed should have Green Bay plenty motivated for this one. Now they’ll know if they can clinch by kickoff. If the Rams beat Seattle, then the opportunity is there. But even if that result doesn’t happen, a win would keep them in the pole position heading into Week 17 when they’d only need to beat the Bears at home. The Packers haven’t had much trouble winning, taking six of the last seven games and four straight. They haven’t committed a single turnover during the 4-game win streak. When you take out some garbage time scoring from Detroit and Chicago, Green Bay’s defensive numbers from the last seven games look really good. In those seven games, only the Colts have scored more than 25 points against them. It would be no more than 20, if you take out the garbage time scoring. The Packers are 19-4 SU their last 23 home games. Play on GREEN BAY AAA | |||||||
12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks | Top | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SEATTLE The Rams lost to the Jets last week. So it’s tough to imagine them winning in Seattle. One week later, we’re quite proud of last week’s call on the Jets. While we didn’t expect them to win straight up, we did highlight many of the Rams shortcomings, which all seemed to come to light in the most embarrassing loss of the season. Meanwhile, the Seahawks handled their business in a 20-15 win over Washington. The week before, they beat the Jets 40-3, which was here at home. Having already suffered their own embarrassing home defeat (three weeks ago vs. Giants), Seattle doesn’t dare let its guard down again. They are looking to avenge a 7-point loss in LA from last month. They didn’t have their top two running backs for that game. The defense is also now a whole heck of a lot better with Jamal Adams running wild. No opponent has scored more than 21 against them during the last five games. The last four have scored only 52 points total. A win here would give the Seahawks the NFC West title, something they dearly want. The Rams are just a .500 team this season (5-5) when you factor out four games vs. the NFC East. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
12-27-20 | Broncos v. Chargers -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LA CHARGERS This game will determine who finishes in the basement of the AFC West. For much of the year, the Chargers have occupied that dubious spot. But after last week’s wild 30-27 win in Vegas, Los Angeles has moved into a tie with Denver. Both are 5-9 coming into this game. Five wins is actually an achievement for Denver as they have yet to be favored in a single game this season. Anyone who saw them last Saturday vs. Buffalo knows this is not a good team. The 48-19 loss tells us the effort just isn’t there any longer. You may be thinking that the Chargers have no reason to try either, but they’ve got revenge for an unforgivable loss earlier in the season. In Denver, they led by 21 points only to end up losing 31-30. Anthony Lynn is very much coaching for his job right now. These teams may have the same record. But the Broncos have been outscored by 119 points while the Chargers have “only” been outscored by 62 points. The Chargers are the better team and we like them to win. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA | |||||||
12-27-20 | Evansville v. Southern Illinois -7.5 | Top | 57-63 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SIU Southern Illinois is one of three Missouri Valley teams still without a loss. The Salukis are 6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS and now begin conference play with a home game against Evansville. We’re no strangers to the Purple Aces as on Monday we won our 10* Total of the Week in their game at Belmont, which was a 72-63 loss for them. That dropped them to 2-4 on the year and both wins were by just three points at home. SIU enters in off its most impressive win to date, a 76-73 upset of Butler as a 9.5-point road underdog. We look for them to handle their business today in Carbondale where three of their four victories this season have been by double digits. SIU has won all four meetings against Evansville the past two seasons with the last one coming by 17 point (that was here at home). Evansville is 5-25 SU its last 30 road games. Play on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AAA | |||||||
12-27-20 | Giants v. Ravens -9.5 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE Since Lamar Jackson returned to the lineup, the Ravens are averaging more than 40 points/game. The Giants have scored a grand total of 30 points over that same time frame. So expect this rematch of Super Bowl 35 to quickly deteriorate into a blowout. That the Giants are still vying to be the winner of the horrible NFC East carries little water for us. Baltimore is also trying to lock down a playoff spot and likely needs to win out to get it. So expect them to take no mercy in this home game. They are 34-0 SU all-time as a double digit favorite. So it’s just a matter of covering the spread. Considering the offensive numbers of the Giants (31st overall in yardage), who may be starting Colt McCoy, winning ATS should not be difficult. (By the way, we don’t consider Daniel Jones much of an upgrade from McCoy, so the play still stands if Jones does end up starting). Jackson has accounted for more touchdowns in the past three games than Giants’ QBs have accounted for all season! The Ravens are 23-8 SU in December home games under Harbaugh and 11-1 SU this month in games started by Jackson. This should be a two touchdown spread. Play on BALTIMORE AAA | |||||||
12-26-20 | Liberty v. Coastal Carolina -7 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA We were happy to jump on the Coastal Carolina bandwagon early this year. All the Chanticleers have done is go 11-0 straight up and 8-2-1 against the spread. They’ll try and finish off a perfect season Saturday as they take on fellow “Cinderella story” Liberty, who is 8-1 SU and ATS, in the Cure Bowl in Orlando. With the two teams a combined 16-3-1 ATS, there’s a lot to like here. But no one disputes Coastal Carolina is the better team. These teams were actually supposed to play in Conway, SC back on December 5th, but COVID prevented that and instead gave us one of the best games of the year, Coastal Carolina’s 22-17 win over BYU. Liberty hasn’t played since November 27th. Coastal Carolina is 5-0 ATS against teams with winning records this year. Liberty did beat Virginia Tech, but the Hokies weren’t that good and the rest of the Flames’ schedule was WEAK. The only bowl team they defeated was Western Kentucky, who was 2-6 at one point. Coastal Carolina is stronger on both sides of the ball. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
12-26-20 | 49ers v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA When Arizona “upset” San Francisco 24-20 in Week 1 (were 7 point underdogs!), it really set the respective paths these teams have taken in 2020. The Cardinals are one of the NFL’s most improved teams, winning 8 games already after a 5-11 campaign in 2019. The 49ers were in the Super Bowl last year, but won’t be back there this February as they’ve fallen to 5-9 SU coming into this Saturday contest. Arizona has had San Francisco’s numbers the last several seasons, winning 9 of the last 11 matchups and covering the spread in the past six. We expect those trends to continue Saturday. CJ Beathard is now the starting QB for the Niners, their third different starting QB of 2020. It’s been that kind of season for them. The Niners haven’t done a good job of protecting their other two QBs and Beathard figures to be under siege by an Arizona defense that has averaged seven sacks each of its last two games. The Cardinals have scored 59 points the last two games - both wins - as they make a playoff push. The 49ers have lost three in a row and six of seven. They are toast with a third string QB. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
12-26-20 | Indiana v. Illinois -7 | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ILLINOIS Being ranked #18 in the country isn’t a bad place to be, but we think even more highly of Illinois. Yes, they’ve already lost three times, but two were three-point games and all three were on the road. Saturday has them welcoming Indiana to Champaign-Urbana in a battle of two of the Big 10 teams that did not play on Christmas Day. Indiana is off a loss, a bad one at that, as they were nine-point favorites against a Northwestern team that beat them 74-67 in Bloomington. That was their third loss so far. As tempting as it may be to take the points in the gritty Big 10, the Fighting Illini are the play here. They’ve won their four home games by an average of 37.5 points. They also just beat Penn State by 17 on the road. As long as they don’t give up 75 points, the Illini are unbeaten in 2020. Indiana averages 72.5 points/game and has been held below 70 in four of its last six. Not enough firepower on the Hoosiers bench to keep up with an Illini team that’s shot better than 50% each of its last five games. Play on ILLINOIS AAA | |||||||
12-25-20 | Mavs +7 v. Lakers | Top | 115-138 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS Both the Mavs and Lakers are coming off season-opening losses. The Lakers fell 116-109 to the Clippers while the Mavs lost 106-102 in Phoenix. Though Luka Doncic was able to score 32 points against the Suns, he was 0 for 6 on three-point attempts. His teammates’ shooting was no better (25 of 59) as the Mavs finished the game at just 42.4% overall and a miserable 9 of 24 from behind the arc. We expect the shooting will improve Christmas night. The turnaround between seasons is short and unprecedented for every team, but especially the Lakers, who were in the NBA Finals a scant two months ago. Being a more veteran team, they could start slow. They fell behind the Clippers by 20 early on opening night and had 19 turnovers. The offseason acquisitions make them stronger (than last year) in the long run, but those pieces are going to need time to “gel.” Not only do we see Dallas covering on Christmas night, they may very well end up winning this one outright. Play on DALLAS AAA | |||||||
12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints -7 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 77 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS Drew Brees returned to the starting lineup last week, but that wasn’t enough to prevent the Saints from losing a second straight game by exactly a three-point margin. It would be unwise to start writing off the Saints, however. Not only is Brees back, but the last time they lost two in a row (Weeks 2 & 3), they responded with a 10-game win streak. They also aren’t facing the Chiefs this week. Instead, it’s Minnesota, who just lost at home to Chicago. The Vikings have also lost two in a row and even worse they’ve failed to cover five straight games. New Orleans is looking to clinch the division with a win and we really like their chances playing at home on Christmas Day. The Saints have feasted on losing teams, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS their L15 such games, including 6-1 and 5-2 in 2020. It was just two weeks ago we were all speaking of their defense as being the best in the league. That unit should get back on track this week. Can’t say the same for Minnesota’s defense, which is giving up 27.7 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. The Vikings have just one win against a team with a winning record all year. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA | |||||||
12-25-20 | Warriors +7.5 v. Bucks | Top | 99-138 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE After making five straight Finals appearances and winning three NBA Championships, the Warriors completely fell apart last season. Injuries were the reason. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green remain “on the mend,” but Steph Curry is back and set to lead the team back to relevance in 2020-21. Opening night certainly didn’t go the way Golden State had hoped as they got blown out in Brooklyn, 125-99. But you can say the same for Milwaukee, who lost their first game, 122-121 in Boston. Even though the Bucks nearly won, they too found themselves down double digits much of the second half. That they shot 51% on the road and lost is a “tough pill” to swallow. With “everyone” expecting Milwaukee to bounce back on Christmas Day, we’ll be siding with the Warriors as this line is far too large for a game taking place this early in the season. It’s only going to get higher due to Golden State’s first game performance. But Curry, who had 20 points vs. the Nets, is going to shoot better than 2 for 10 from 3-point land here (that’s what he shot in Brooklyn). The Warriors’ 3-point defense will also improve after they allowed the Nets to hit 43% from distance. Milwaukee has several new pieces and it’s going to take time to gel after the short offseason. We don’t see them being as dominant right away, compared to the past two seasons. We really believe in the Warriors here. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA | |||||||
12-25-20 | Marshall +4.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -105 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL Marshall and Buffalo were thinking about Conference Championships last Friday. But after both lost their respective title games (as favorites), they’ll match up on Christmas Day in the Camellia Bowl (played in Montgomery, AL). Really this is all about who responds better to last week’s loss. Marshall is coming off two straight losses after starting their season 7-0. Buffalo was a perfect 5-0 before losing to Ball State exactly one week ago. Marshall’s offense is obviously a “work in progress” and cannot get into a scenario where they need to “trade points” with Buffalo. But fortunately they have a defense that came into the C-USA Champ Game allowing just 88.9 yards/game. Buffalo has RB Jaret Patterson, but he was limited in the MAC Championship by a knee injury and only ran for 47 yards on 18 carries. The Bulls offense managed only one score in the second half of the MAC Championship and it was on a long run (not by Patterson). It’s also tough when your defense gives up 35 points in half like Buffalo’s did. Marshall’s defense has not allowed more than 22 points in any game all season. We like them as the underdog, a role they were in just once during the regular season -- when they upset Appalachian State. Play on MARSHALL AAA | |||||||
12-24-20 | Hawaii +11.5 v. Houston | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII This game may be called the “New Mexico Bowl,” but it’s actually taking place in Frisco, TX due to COVID restrictions. Houston isn’t complaining as the game is even closer to home, a welcome reprieve after the Cougars had EIGHT cancellations/postponements during the regular season. But we’re not sold that they should be this big of a favorite. They’ve played just one time since November 14th and that ended up being a 30-27 LOSS to Memphis. Not coincidentally, we played against UH there as well. They were 6.5-point road favorites for that one. Hawaii was just 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS in the regular season. But if you take out games where they were favored (0-3 ATS), then they begin to look like a more attractive bet here. Led by QB Chevan Cordeiro (2450 total yards, 18 total touchdowns), the Warriors should score a reasonable number of points in this game. The only other time this season they were catching double digits was vs. Boise State. Houston is missing two of its best defensive players as they opted out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Same with their leading receiver. Houston has lost three straight bowls. Their head coach Dana Holgorsen is 2-5 straight up in bowl games. Play on HAWAII AAA | |||||||
12-23-20 | Bucks -2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 121-122 | Loss | -117 | 49 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee has been the best team in the Eastern Conference each of the last two seasons, but has yet to make their way to an NBA Finals. Boston has made it to the Conference Finals in three of the last four seasons. So both of these teams have high hopes for 2020-21. With Giannis Antetokounmpo now signed, the Bucks can focus on the court and do what they do best. This has been the best offensive team in the league, at least in the regular season, two years running. They added Jrue Holiday. The Celtics have more question marks entering the season. Gordon Hayward is now in Charlotte. Kemba Walker is out because of a knee injury. So we think it could be a slow start in Beantown. The Bucks have beaten the Celtics in 8 of the previous 10 matchups and are 5-2 ATS the L7. They handle their business in the opener. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
12-23-20 | Heat -4 v. Magic | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MIAMI The Heat will open this season where last season ended, that being Orlando, which of course hosted the NBA bubble. It won’t be the same arena where they lost to the Lakers in the NBA Finals in October, but the visit should still evoke memories. We like Miami to win tonight, though the money line appears to be the better option than the spread (which is rising). The Heat should again be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and while they’ll be restricting Jimmy Butler’s minutes (he averaged 43 MPG in the Finals) early on, there are no such limitations for Miami’s young core. Avery Bradley was an offseason acquisition, coming over from the Lakers. Orlando did not make any real changes in the offseason after finishing 8th in the East. They are probably going to battle with the likes of division rivals Atlanta and Washington for spots in the new ‘play-in’ scenarios this year. Though Miami wasn’t favored all that often during its playoff run, they have covered five straight as chalk. They’ve also beaten the Magic three straight times. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
12-22-20 | Clippers v. Lakers -2 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -105 | 272 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAKERS Though we’re projecting both LA teams to fare quite well this season, the clear call on Opening Night is to take the Lakers. The consensus view is that the Lakers are now a better team than when they won the NBA Finals a scant two months ago. Looking at the roster, it’s difficult to argue with that assessment. Valuable additions such as Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol make the Lakers a deeper team. It’s easy to “fall in love” with what Talen Horton-Tucker did in the preseason. Even though they just won the NBA Championship, LeBron and company will want to remind the league that they are the team to beat. The Clippers are a bit of a mess right now with the Kawhi Leonard situation seeming like a real distraction. They have a new coach in Ty Lue. It’s not like Doc Rivers was a bad coach, so problems with this team may run deeper than coaching. The teams split four regular season meetings last year, one of them in the bubble. The Lakers won the last two. Give me the favorite to win on Opening Night. Play on LA LAKERS AAA | |||||||
12-22-20 | Texas Tech -1.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEX TECH Texas Tech looks to bounce back from its second defeat of the season here as they travel to Norman to face Oklahoma. The Red Raiders lost by just 1 point to Kansas at home, but we still consider them to be one of the premier teams in the country. So do the oddsmakers by having them favored in this spot. Oklahoma is 5-1, but that one loss was really bad as they were blown out 99-77 by Xavier. That’s been the only real test thus far for the Sooners and they failed it miserably. They did win at TCU, but Texas Tech is a lot better than both TCU and Xavier. Offense isn’t always pretty for the Red Raiders but they come in as the #1 rated team in defensive efficiency in the entire country. Considering OU made only 5 three-pointers against Houston Baptist, a season-low, they figure to struggle from the perimeter again tonight. The Sooners are just 8-20 ATS off a SU win. Take the better team to win this nationally televised affair. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA | |||||||
12-22-20 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -14.5 | Top | 55-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOLEDO Northern Illinois just picked up its first win in six tries as they beat Chicago State 64-54 on Friday. But Chicago State is arguably the worst team in all of Division I College Basketball. The Huskies are still without an ATS win (0-6) this season as they were 16.5-point favorites in that last game. They were also favored in the first two games of the season. Here they are underdogs to a Toledo that has played only one bad game and that was against a superior Michigan squad. The Rockets enter in at 6-3 with the other two losses coming by two and three points. They’ve won five of the last six, Michigan being the lone defeat. Northern Illinois already has three 20+ point losses on its resume and we just don’t see them staying close Tuesday afternoon. Toledo has actually lost three in a row to NIU, so they are going to take this game lightly nor will they take it easy on their downtrodden conference foe. In three previous home games, the Rockets have allowed an average of just 58.3 points/game. Play on TOLEDO AAA | |||||||
12-21-20 | Morehead State v. Clemson -23.5 | Top | 51-66 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON Though it’s basketball, the final margin of victory this afternoon in Death Valley should be something reminiscent of the Clemson football team. Tigers’ hoops is coming off its 1st loss of the season, 66-60 at Virginia Tech last Tuesday. That was after starting the year not just 5-0 straight up, but also 5-0 against the spread. They’re matched up with Morehead State today and obviously the underdog has little, if any, chance in this one. Previous visits to Kentucky and Ohio State went really poorly for the Eagles as they lost to those respective opponents by 36 and 33 points. Clemson is better than both Kentucky and OSU. The Tigers already have four P5 wins, so they’re not playing a cupcake schedule. Even more impressive is that three of those four wins came by double digits. The only time Clemson got to face a non-P5 foe, they won 75-38 (South Carolina St) and we expect something along those lines here. Play on CLEMSON AAA | |||||||
12-20-20 | Michigan State -6.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 65-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICH ST Michigan State is 6-0 and ranked #4 in the country. But they actually haven’t covered a spread since their 75-69 “upset” of Duke on the 1st of the month. But this 3-game ATS losing streak is easier to swallow when you consider Sparty has been favored by at least 23 points in all three of those games. They’ve won by exactly 18 points their last two times out. Tonight the number is more manageable against Northwestern, who is 3-1 and hasn’t faced anything close to the challenge they’re up against here. The mood in Evanston is certainly “down” after yesterday’s loss in the Big 10 Championship Game by the football team. Don’t look for any kind of “pick me up” from Chris Collins team. Michigan State is averaging nearly 85 points/game and beat Northwestern by 29 in the last meeting. Big 10 play did not go well for Northwestern last season. They were just 3-17 SU. The Wildcats three wins this year came against Ark Pine Bluff, Chicago State and Quincy College. Eight Spartans scored at least nine points in the last game. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA | |||||||
12-20-20 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 113 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY Kansas City is the first team since the ‘86 Patriots to win five consecutive one score games while going 0-5 ATS. But this is the rare occasion where they are laying a short number. It comes in New Orleans against a Saints team that is off a shocking loss to the Eagles last week. Despite the 5-game ATS losing streak, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is still 19-11 ATS since the start of last season, the best cover percentage in the league during that time. He’s 30-18-1 ATS in his career (including playoffs). The Chiefs are also 41-21-1 ATS on the road since 2013. What we are saying is that you can lay the points with the confidence, even if Drew Brees returns for New Orleans. Kansas City has just one loss and should be regarded as the best team in the league right now. Can’t see them failing to cover for a sixth straight time. If not for an uncharacteristic four turnovers, they would have covered easily last week against Miami. The Chiefs are just better than the Saints right now. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA | |||||||
12-20-20 | Jets +17 v. Rams | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 112 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY JETS The Jets are very bad, but this is also a ton of points. It’s one of the highest spreads for any game this season. The Rams did just win by 21 here at home last week. But that was also their largest MOV this season. They’ve got only three wins this year by more than two touchdowns and, oddly enough, the other two were both on the road and early in the season. The Jets had been a lot more competitive before running into the Seahawks last week. Three of their previous four losses were by six points or fewer. As long as they are winless, they should stay motivated. No team of professionals wants to go winless for an entire regular season. This is the most points the Rams have been favored by in a game since the “Greatest Show on Turf” team of 2001. It won’t be pretty but the Jets will stay within three scores. Play on NY JETS AAA | |||||||
12-20-20 | Eagles v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 112 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona got back on track last week with a 26-7 win against the Giants, our Game of the Week. For the second week in a row, the Cardinals are our top play. They host the Eagles this time. While Philadelphia pulled out a shocking 24-21 win against New Orleans, they still shouldn’t be taken very seriously with a rookie QB (Jalen Hurts). Arizona badly needs this game to improve its playoff chances. Philadelphia is just 1-5 ATS on the road this season. While all those games were with Carson Wentz at QB, we’re not buying Hurts as a big difference maker. The Eagles have not covered back to back games all year. The Arizona defense played really well last week and had eight sacks. Philadelphia has had 12 different starting offensive line combinations in the first 13 games, so good luck pass protecting in this one. We don’t see them having the same success running the ball that they did last week. The Eagles defense has really struggled against mobile QBs this year and Arizona’s Kyler Murray has rushed for 712 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
12-20-20 | Texans v. Colts -7 | Top | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 109 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 9* on INDIANAPOLIS These teams met just two weeks ago with the Colts winning 26-20 in Houston. The game was decided when the Texans fumbled inside the 10-yard line in the closing minutes. While Indianapolis very much could have lost that first meeting, we like them to win the rematch - big - at home. They come into Week 15 tied with Tennessee for the AFC South lead. A win here and their playoff chances improve exponentially. Houston is 4-9 and has no shot of making the playoffs. An ugly 36-7 loss in Chicago last week indicates the Texans have pretty much “packed it in.” DeShaun Watson has been sacked 11 times the last two weeks, five of those coming against the Colts. Indianapolis is a team that is heavily respected by the oddsmakers. They’ve been an underdog only once all season. They are 8-2 ATS their past 10 games as a favorite. They’ve got a top ten offense and defense. The Texans are 6-14-1 ATS in December or later going back to 2016. They are also 1-6 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season. The Colts have covered seven of their last eight games vs. the Texans and that trend should continue here in what shapes up as a real mismatch Sunday. Houston is 1-7 SU/2-6 ATS as an underdog this year. Play on INDIANAPOLIS AAA | |||||||
12-20-20 | Seahawks -4 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 109 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE This is a big mismatch now that Dwayne Haskins has to start for Washington. There really is no debate that the Football Team got much better once Haskins was benched for Alex Smith. Now Smith is hurt at a most inopportune time. Haskins has to face one of the better teams in the league, one that just put up 40 points last week. There is no chance Washington is able to trade points in this one. The offense gained less than 200 total yards in last week’s 23-15 win against San Francisco. The Football Team is now vying to become the first team since Tampa Bay in 2016 to win four straight games, all as an underdog. Seems unlikely. The Seahawks defense has gotten much better since Jamal Adams came back. They’ve allowed 17 points or less three straight weeks. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
12-20-20 | 49ers -3 v. Cowboys | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -102 | 109 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO We like this price quite a bit on a 49ers team that is better than its record. They might be only 1-4 the last five games, but all four losses were to division leaders. They did beat a very good Rams team, on the road, 23-20. Dallas is not a good team. In fact, the Cowboys have a -102 point differential, a NFC worst. A 30-7 win last week over a Bengals team with a backup quarterback (Brandon Allen) didn’t alter our view of the ‘Boys at all. The previous two games saw them lose by a combined 42 points to Baltimore and Washington. Even after a decent effort last week, the Cowboys defense is still allowing 5.1 yards per rush, worst in football. So look for San Fran to run the ball effectively in this one. The 49ers are 12-3 ATS in games with a spread of five points or less going back to the beginning of last season. They’ve also covered three in a row as road favorites. No team has been worse at the betting window this year than Dallas, who is 3-10 ATS. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA | |||||||
12-19-20 | Coppin State v. Virginia Tech -26.5 | Top | 57-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Va Tech After cashing a 38-point win last night, here’s another game on the College Basketball board that we feel will end up being not even remotely close. Va Tech can name the score Saturday as they host overmatched Coppin State. The Hokies just beat Clemson earlier this week, a nice bounce back from their only loss so far this season, which did come here in Blacksburg (to Penn State). Remember that Clemson is a top 25 team though, so that’s a really nice 66-60 win for Buzz Williams’ team. Coppin State is 1-5, their only win coming at home vs. UNC Greensboro. They lost by 17 at home to UMBC (remember them?) last time out - their 5th loss by double digits. This matchup ended up 74-42 (Va Tech, obviously) last year with the Hokies holding the Eagles below 20% shooting for the game. Should be more of the same today as Coppin State has looked REALLY bad thus far. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA | |||||||
12-19-20 | Bills -6.5 v. Broncos | Top | 48-19 | Win | 100 | 89 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BUFFALO The Bills are definitely for real. That much we can say after they easily handled the Steelers Sunday. The 26-15 win improved Buffalo’s record to 10-3 and greatly increased their chances of winning the AFC East, something they have not done since Jim Kelly was their quarterback. Denver probably wishes Jim Kelly was their QB (more likely John Elway), but you get the picture. The Broncos simply are not on the Bills level. What really drives home the oddsmakers’ feeling towards Denver is the fact the Broncos are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year. Give them credit for beating Carolina last week, 32-27, which improved their WL record to 5-8. But most of their wins have been against losing teams. Also, in six home games, the Broncos are averaging only 15.7 points/game. That simply will not cut it facing a Bills offense that has really hit its stride of late. Over the past five games, Buffalo is averaging 32.2 points/game. Their defense has allowed just 18.7 points/game the L3 weeks. Oh, by the way, Buffalo’s only loss in the last seven games came on a Hail Mary. Play on BUFFALO AAA | |||||||
12-19-20 | Oklahoma -5.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OKLAHOMA Oklahoma is going for revenge in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. One of their two regular season losses was to Iowa State, 37-30 back on October 3rd. That game was played in Ames and OU was a 7.5-point favorite. What’s notable is the Sooners haven’t lost since. They’ve won six in a row, the last five of which have all come by at least 13 points. OU led Iowa State by double digits (17-6) in the first half of the first meetings only to let the lead slip away at the end. They allowed two touchdown drives in the final eight minutes of the fourth quarter. At the time, it was their second blown lead in as many weeks (also Kansas State). There is no doubt Oklahoma is in a better place now and favorites have dominated these Power 5 Championship Games of late. Since 2015, the underdog has won just twice in 23 Championship Games. Iowa State has had a nice year, but they aren’t as good as OU. The revenge factor is big here. So we’ll lay the short number. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA | |||||||
12-18-20 | Idaho v. Utah -22.5 | Top | 41-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah should easily handle its business Friday night against an Idaho team playing its fifth consecutive road game to start the season. The visiting Vandals have lost three of those four games by double digit margins and consider none of the previous opponents are as strong as the Utes. Utah’s only loss so far was to a good BYU team. They bounced back by beating Utah Valley State 75-67 on Tuesday. While they did not cover, they improved to 3-0 SU here at home and have scored at least 75 points in all three of those games. Idaho comes in averaging just 59.0 points/game. Don’t let Utah’s three-game ATS losing skid scare you. The Utes are 33-17 ATS when taking the court on an ATS losing skid of three games or more. In that last game, they led by 21 at the half. We don’t think they take their foot off the gas this time. The Utes’ have the 8th best turnover margin in the country right now. Idaho’s forecast is not bright as they were predicted to finish LAST in the Big Sky this season. Play on UTAH AAA | |||||||
12-18-20 | Ball State v. Buffalo -13 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Buffalo steamrolled its way to this MAC Championship Game, winning all five of its games by an average of 31.8 points! They are clearly the best team in their conference this year, a claim supported by the fact they are double digit favorites in Friday’s Championship Game against a Ball State team that is also on a five-game win streak. The only game Buffalo didn’t cover this year was against Bowling Green where they were 31-point favorites. They won that game 42-17 and were up bigger before allowing the backdoor cover. Going back to last season, the Bulls have covered seven of their last eight as favorites. RB Jaret Patterson went over 1000 yards rushing despite the team playing just five games. He’s only the 12th back in College Football history to go over 1000 yards in just five games. In addition to all that you’ve already read about them, Buffalo is 17-5 ATS its last 22 MAC games. They are the clear class of the conference this year and will punctuate this 2020 season with a decisive win in the Championship Game. Play on BUFFALO AAA | |||||||
12-17-20 | Dixie State v. Southern Utah -10 | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH Yes, Dixie State is a Division I school. And they are off to a 3-0 start to the season! Two of those three wins (N Dakota, Denver) were by a total of four points though. We all know the transition to DI won’t be easy for the Trailblazers so now seems like a good time to step in and fade them. Southern Utah is a solid 4-1 so far, although two of their wins were by exactly one point (both vs. Montana). Their only loss was by two points at Loyola Marymount, the opener of the season. The Thunderbirds are 3 for 3 at home and coming off a 10-point win over Utah Valley State. SUU has covered all four of its lined games. It’s somewhat amazing Dixie State was able to beat Denver on Saturday considering they were on the wrong end of a big FT shooting discrepancy. A key to their 3-0 record is their opponents have shot just 21.2% from three. That’s abnormally low. Southern Utah will do better. Much better. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH AAA | |||||||
12-17-20 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA CHARGERS The Chargers finally won a close one on Sunday, beating the Falcons 20-17 as a one-point favorite. While they are only 4-9 on the year, LA has played much better than their record shows. They had a bad game two weeks ago vs. New England, but seven of their other eight losses have come in one score games. This Thursday night matchup vs. Las Vegas reminds us of how we handicapped the Monday night game between Baltimore and Cleveland. Our view of MNF was that despite the inferior won-loss record, the Ravens were the better team, an assertion backed up by various metrics. The same holds true here. Las Vegas may be 7-6, but they’ve actually been outscored by 41 points. Losers of three of their last four, the Raiders are clearly heading in the wrong direction down the home stretch. The only win in those last four games was a miracle against the winless Jets. The fact the Raiders have been favored only four times prior to this game shows that they’ve overachieved. The defense has been torched for 150 points in those last four games. Chargers QB Justin Herbert should have a big night here. Los Angeles is 8-4 ATS its last 12 Thursday games. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA | |||||||
12-17-20 | Houston Baptist v. North Texas -23.5 | Top | 55-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTH TEXAS North Texas is a big favorite Thursday. But for good reason as they are matched up against a subpar Houston Baptist team that figures to have all sorts of trouble keeping up here in Denton. Houston Baptist has actually done a decent job at covering the spread to this point. They are 4-1 ATS but were +28 or more in three of those games. Their only SU win this year was vs. Champion Baptist. All their losses have been by double digits, four of them by at least 22 points. This will be the second road game in three days after giving up 90 to Rice on Tuesday. The Huskies have also given up 100+ to both Arizona State and SMU. North Texas may not be as good as either of those squads, but the Mean Green are coming off an 81-56 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff. They’ve covered 7 of 10 as home favorites of 12.5 or more. They are 2-0 at home this season and the two wins have been by 54 and 25 points. Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA | |||||||
12-16-20 | Toledo v. Marshall -6.5 | Top | 96-87 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARSHALL Marshall (4-0) looks to stay unbeaten as Toledo pays a visit to Huntington Wednesday night. We like the home team’s chances as they’ve won all four games by double digits. Toledo has three losses and was beaten by 20 in their last road game. The other two losses were close, but the Rockets have lost both times they were an underdog. There will be no shortage of motivation from the Marshall side as the Thundering Herd have lost three straight times to Toledo. This triple revenge spot begs you to lay the points and we will as the Herd have allowed just 38.5% shooting thus far. They play at a very fast tempo, which will be too much for Toledo to deal with. This was the preseason favorite to win Conference USA, so they are not to be taken lightly. Lay it! Play on MARSHALL AAA | |||||||
12-16-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Colorado -21 | Top | 49-91 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO For the second time in three days, we’ll lay the points with Colorado. The Buffs easily covered for us Monday in an 81-45 win against Northern Colorado. They were 13.5-point favorites in that game. They’re even bigger favorites today, but of course that means it’s a weaker opponent as well. Omaha has failed to cover five straight and their only SU win during that time came by two against SIU Edwardsville. The other four games were all double digit losses, the most recent coming Friday when they fell by 45 at Kansas. Colorado isn’t Kansas, but they certainly can win this game by half that margin. It helps that Omaha is 3-8 ATS as a road underdog of more than 12.5 points and 0-3 when getting 18.5 to 24. Colorado’s three wins this season have come by an average of 25.7 points. They are 10th in the country, allowing just 55 points/game. Omaha has yet to score more than 67 in a game this year and their losses have come by an average of more than 22 points/game. Colorado’s lone defeat came at the hands of Top 25 Tennessee. Omaha is not even close to the caliber of Tennessee, obviously. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
12-15-20 | SE Missouri State v. Evansville -2.5 | Top | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 9* on EVANSVILLE Two teams that have played a lot of close games thus far will face off tonight in Evansville. The host Purple Aces are looking to make it two in a row at home and they just defeated Eastern Illinois here, 68-65, as a 3.5-point underdog. Before that, they’d lost by 6 at Tenn-Martin (as a 4-point favorite) and Prairie View A&M by three (as a 2.5-pt dog). They’ve also been blown out by Louisville. So it was their first win last Wednesday. The last thing the Purple Aces want is another loss. SE Missouri State is coming off a home and home split with Lipscomb. They covered both games. Every Redhawks game thus far has been decided by eight points or less with the team’s record being 2-2 straight up (and 3-1 against the spread). Key for us is that Evansville has seen its shooting improve every game. SE Missouri State does not defend particularly well, so the Purple Aces are likely in store for their best shooting night of the season so far. Interesting that SE Missouri State has been an underdog in all four of its games. Can’t see a third upset in five games. Play on EVANSVILLE AAA | |||||||
12-14-20 | Northern Colorado v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 45-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Northern Colorado may be 2-0, but we’d hardly call the likes of Colorado Christian and Regis (MA) “competition.” Here they are going up against the class of the Rocky Mountain State, Colorado, who will be angry coming off an ugly 56-47 loss at Tennessee last week. The Buffaloes were just plain “off” in Knoxville as they finished with a 33.3 field goal percentage. They missed 17 of 22 threes. It must be acknowledged though that Tennessee was the #12 ranked team in the country when that game was played. Just like the step up in class here for Northern Colorado, the step down for Colorado is just as big. The Buffs won their first two games by a combined 35 points and we should be looking at a similar margin here tonight in Boulder where they are 29-6 L35 games. This will be their first home game of the season as well. This one should get ugly in a hurry. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
12-14-20 | Ravens -2.5 v. Browns | Top | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BALTIMORE Cleveland is 9-3. Baltimore is 7-5. But make no mistake about it. Baltimore is better. The Ravens have outscored their 12 opponents by 85 points this season, tied for the 5th best differential in the league. The Browns have been OUTSCORED in their 12 games, despite their record and a 4-game win streak. When these AFC North rivals met back in Week 1, Baltimore won handily 38-6. It’s probably also worth noting that Cleveland failed its other AFC North test, losing to Pittsburgh 38-7. So they haven’t really been able to “get it done” against the league’s elite. The keys for the Browns this season have been winning close (6-0 in one-score games) and beating bad teams. Three of the four teams they’ve beaten during this win streak were Houston, Philadelphia and Jacksonville, all of whom are sub-.500. Even when they jumped up big on Tennessee last week, they had to hold on for a 41-35 win. The Ravens looked like their old selves in a 34-17 win over Dallas on Tuesday, running for nearly 300 yards. They are now 6-0 ATS their L6 December games. The Browns are 1-10-1 ATS their past 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Ravens are 4-2 on the road this year, not to mention 14-6 ATS L20. Play on BALTIMORE AAA | |||||||
12-13-20 | Steelers +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -100 | 104 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PITTSBURGH This line appears to be a bit of an overreaction towards the events of last Monday when the Steelers suffered their first loss of the season and the Bills beat down the 49ers 34-24. Sure enough, the original line for this matchup had Pittsburgh favored by a few points on the road. Now it’s swung in the other direction and we see value on a team that has lost ONLY ONCE this season. We know Pittsburgh hasn’t really looked impressive its last couple games, but remember that both were moved due to Baltimore’s COVID drama. While Buffalo’s offense has looked very good recently, the Steelers’ defense remains one of the best in the league as it is permitting just 17.6 points per game. While Pittsburgh did blow a 14-0 lead against Washington last week, that was more on the offense, which could not score a TD despite five chances from the 1-yard line. If they score there, the Steelers are still undefeated. There were two drives that ended with the Pittsburgh offense turning it over on downs inside the Washington 30-yard line. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road underdog facing a team with a winning record. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA | |||||||
12-13-20 | Cardinals -2 v. Giants | Top | 26-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA If not for the “Hail Murray” vs. Buffalo, Arizona would be on a five-game losing streak entering this week. They are 0-5 ATS those L5 games. It’s been a real “fall from grace” for a team that started the year 5-2. The Giants, now 5-7 on the season, are trending in the other direction. They’ve won four in a row with their defense holding all four opponents to 20 points or less. But despite the recent form of these two teams, we’re backing the Cardinals on Sunday. Colt McCoy may have to start again for the G-Men. While that shockingly worked out in Seattle last week, we don’t see that kind of success sustaining itself. If he does come back, Daniel Jones isn’t that great either. The Giants’ offense has only scored 36 points the last two games. Give them credit for that win up in Seattle, but before that it was a really favorable stretch of games. They were off a bye when they faced Cincinnati without Joe Burrow, but won that game by only two points. Arizona is still the better team here and we’ll lay the short number. The Giants’ special teams have given up a punt return and a safety the last two weeks. New York has had success as a dog this season, but is still just 3-12 ATS as a home dog the past three seasons. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
12-13-20 | Vikings v. Bucs -6.5 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 96 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY Good situation this week for Tampa Bay to pick up a win. For starters, they are coming off a bye. Getting their bye so late in the season may prove advantageous for the stretch run. Perhaps they were running on fumes when they lost to the Rams and Chiefs by identical 27-24 scores in their last two games. Maybe it was a case of facing two really good teams. Whatever the reason, we don’t see the Bucs losing three in a row at home. While they’ve struggled against top teams in the league like the Saints, Rams and Chiefs, Tampa Bay has done well against everyone else. Minnesota is on a 5-1 surge, but their last four wins have been against Detroit, Chicago, Carolina and Jacksonville and most of those games were close. Remember they lost at home to Dallas. The most impressive win, over Green Bay, came after a bye. Tough matchup for Vikings RB Dalvin Cook this week as he faces the league’s top ranked run defense, which is allowing just 74 yards per game. Tom Brady is an incredible 46-19 ATS after a SU loss including 4-0 with the Bucs. The Vikings young secondary is likely to struggle against the Tampa receivers. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
12-12-20 | Stanford -2.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Oregon State has put together four straight ATS wins, all one score games. One of them was an upset over rival Oregon. Last week they played without their star running back and still stayed within six of Utah - as 14-point underdogs. The Beavers have been double digit dogs in three of those wins.They are underdogs again this week, although not by double digits, to a Stanford team they’ve lost to 10 straight times. The Cardinal are coming off a big win against Washington last week, their second victory in a row after opening 0-2. RB Jefferson is going to return this week for the Beavers, but they have a backup QB and that makes the offense one-dimensional and easier to prepare for. Stanford has four injured players, two of them wide receivers. This game was going to take place in Palo Alto, but had to be moved to Corvallis due to COVID protocols in California. This will be a relatively low-scoring game. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
12-12-20 | USC v. UCLA +3.5 | Top | 43-38 | Loss | -118 | 102 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UCLA Southern Cal looked especially good on Sunday (we had them!) as a big passing day from QB Slovis (5 TD passes!) allowed them to overwhelm Washington State 38-13. A win this week, against a UCLA team they’ve now been favored against 18 of the last 19 seasons, sends the Trojans through to the Pac 12 Championship. But this game is a lot more tricky than it seems. USC is playing on short rest. UCLA is 3-2 with both losses occurring on the road in one-possession games. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS the last four games and the only straight up loss they’ve suffered during that time was by three at Oregon, a game which they outgained the opponent only to be undone by four turnovers. The Bruins come into Saturday as winners of two in a row, having beaten Arizona and Arizona State. USC could not run the ball last week, gaining just 5 yards on the ground, and we don’t expect them to have much success in that department this week either. Home team is 12-5 ATS the last 17 meetings and USC is just 1-5-1 ATS its last seven as a road favorite. Play on UCLA AAA | |||||||
12-12-20 | Houston v. Memphis +4.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS The start time for this game was bumped back a few hours, but we assure you things will be worth the wait as Memphis looks to upset Houston. Memphis getting points at the Liberty Bowl is not something you’ll see very often. There’s a reason for that. They’ve won 14 straight home games, a win streak that stretches back to October 2018. The Tigers last home loss was by one point to a UCF team that finished the regular season 12-0. While not as good as they were last season, Memphis is still 5-0 at home where they are averaging 43.9 points and giving up only 29.8. They beat UCF here earlier this season. They’ve defeated Houston four years in a row, scoring at least 42 points in all four wins. Houston has never really been able to get on track in 2020 due to COVID-19 and contact tracing. They’ve played only six games with the most recent being over a month ago. This is a tough ask to lay points on the road against a team that’s been so dominant on its home field. The Cougars are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, losing eight of those games outright. They are also 0-3 SU and ATS the L3 times playing with 2 or more weeks rest. Play on MEMPHIS AAA | |||||||
12-12-20 | Coastal Carolina -12.5 v. Troy | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA For Coastal Carolina, the plan for last week was always to “make a statement.” At first they thought it would be at the expense of Liberty, a fellow non-P5 school with an excellent record. But when Liberty had to bail due to COVID, undefeated BYU stepped up and took their place. Few gave the Chanticleers a chance on such short notice (they were 10.5-point underdogs), but all they ended up doing was pull off the biggest win in school history, defeating BYU 22-17. Now 10-0, Coastal Carolina looks to finish the regular season undefeated by winning at Troy. The Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Louisiana) awaits the Chanticleers next weekend. But don’t expect any kind of “look ahead” given that CC is looking to stay undefeated. Troy, who may be without their starting QB, simply doesn’t score enough to keep pace with a team like the Chanticleers. Before shutting out South Alabama 29-0 last week, the Trojans had scored just 13, 17 and 10 points their previous three games, all losses. Coastal Carolina is winning by an average of almost three touchdowns per game this season. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
12-12-20 | Florida v. Florida State -2.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE It’s Florida and Florida State starting your Saturday in College Basketball. The two Sunshine State rivals have combined to go 5-0 thus far. Florida (3-0) has not been seriously tested while FSU did just defeat Indiana 69-67 here in Tallahassee, as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. The Seminoles won that game despite poor shooting, but their defense stepped up to hold IU to 36% from the field. In Florida’s last game, their opponent shot just 19.6%! But that was Stetson, not Florida State, who comes in as the #20 ranked team in the country. The ‘Noles are looking for a 7th straight win over the Gators. The previous six have been by an average of 10 points. So we’ll gladly lay the short number in this one. FSU does a great job on the glass, collecting 18 offensive rebounds per game and they are 6th in the country in offensive rebound percentage. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA | |||||||
12-11-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State -2.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN JOSE STATE The number of unbeaten teams across College Football has dwindled down to nine with five of those teams having played five or less games. San Jose State is one of the big surprises on that list. Last week the Spartans were supposed to host Hawaii but were instead forced to head out to Honolulu. They won anyway, 35-24, to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Once again they’ve “lost” a home game this week as they’ll face Nevada in Las Vegas (at least it’s not Reno) at Sam Boyd Stadium. Still we expect this nice story to continue with SJSU picking up another victory. Nevada was lucky to defeat Fresno State 37-26 last week as the defense gave up almost 600 yards! Turnovers really bailed them out, but that’s not a reliable blueprint for success. San Jose State has a pretty good defense and the team is 14-5 ATS its last 19 Mountain West games. Play on SAN JOSE STATE AAA | |||||||
12-11-20 | Georgia Southern v. Davidson -14.5 | Top | 45-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DAVIDSON We don’t envision Davidson having much trouble in this non-conference home game. The Wildcats have actually owned Georgia Southern through the years, posting an 18-7 ATS head to head mark, which includes 9-2 at home. Georgia Southern comes into Friday still sporting an unblemished won-loss record (3-0), but they haven’t played anybody of note and almost lost to USC Upstate last week. Davidson is 2-2 but those two losses were by a combined three points and on a neutral court to Texas and Providence. The Wildcats beat UNLV in their last game and have had more than a week off to prepare for this first home game in nearly three weeks. That USC Upstate team that Georgia Southern barely beat is 0-4. Yet they led the Eagles by as many as nine points in the second half. The game was decided on a three-point play in the final second. Lay the points with confidence in this one. Play on DAVIDSON AAA | |||||||
12-11-20 | St. John's v. Seton Hall -5.5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SETON HALL Big East play commences Friday with Seton Hall hosting St. John’s. The hosts are 3-3 on the year and coming off an easy 33-point win against Wagner. They lost by 1 at Louisville in the first game of the season. Both home games have been blowouts as they also beat Iona by 22. St. John’s is a more difficult opponent compared to Wagner and Iona, however the Red Storm seem to be getting a bit too much respect from the oddsmakers and bettors for this conference road game. The Red Storm could barely beat Rider at home three days ago (won by only three) and have two other victories so far by four points or less. So while 5-1, the Johnnies could easily have a worse record right now. Seton Hall has dominated this Big East rivalry when hosting, going 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS. They swept the season series last year, which included a 16-point win at home. They’ve won 8 of 10 overall against St. John’s and played a harder non-conference schedule. St. John’s was only 5-13 in Big East play last season. Play on SETON HALL AAA | |||||||
12-10-20 | Long Beach State v. San Francisco -16 | Top | 62-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO With the NCAA Tournament being cancelled in March, one of the teams you felt for the most was San Francisco. The Dons had a breakout season in 2019-20, going 22-12 and there was a decent shot they were going to get an at-large bid. Keep in mind this program has been to the Big Dance just ONE time since 1982 and that was in 1998. This year, the Dons already have two losses, one of them a real “head-scratcher” to UMass-Lowell in the first game of the season. But they’ve also shown what they are capable of by beating then #4 Virginia on a neutral floor. The Dons have had a few extra days off to prepare here as Sunday’s game vs. Nevada was cancelled because of COVID. We ran with Long Beach State on Sunday and they covered against Seattle, but that was a much weaker opponent. The 49ers have really struggled shooting the ball in their first two games and were blown out by another WCC team (Loyola Marymount) in their first game (lost by 24). San Francisco is a better team than Loyola Marymount. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA | |||||||
12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams -5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS As we learned (the hard way) on Sunday, this Rams team is pretty good. They went into Arizona and beat the Cardinals 38-28. But really it wasn’t even that close as the Rams put up 463 total yards while allowing just 232. In terms of outgaining opponents on a per play basis, Los Angeles is one of the best teams in the league. They are now 8-4, tied with Seattle atop the NFC West standings. We like them to handle their business here against the Patriots. The Rams’ defense has allowed an average of just 15.0 points in five home games. No team has been stingier at home this season. While New England is off a 45-0 win against the Chargers, that point total was greatly aided by two special teams touchdowns. The Patriots offense is averaging only 235 yards the last two weeks despite winning both games. You may remember that the Rams beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl back in 2002. Well, they have not beaten them since, losing five straight times! That streak is put to bed here as the home team shows off its superiority Thursday night. Play on LA RAMS AAA | |||||||
12-10-20 | Pittsburgh -6.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITT Pittsburgh (5-5) looks to wrap up the regular season with an above-.500 record as they play at Georgia Tech Thursday night. This should be a big offensive night for the Panthers as QB Kenny Pickett is back in the fold and will be facing a defense that’s giving up an ugly 42.6 points at home this year. With Pickett in the starting lineup, the Panthers are 5-3 this season. One of those losses was to Clemson two weeks ago. The other two were by a combined two points. So far Pickett has thrown for more than 2200 yards with 12 TD passes. Half of his interceptions came against Clemson. He’s completing 62% of his passes. Georgia Tech, who will wrap up its season next week in Miami, is a pretty lousy 3-6 after losing by 10 at NC State Saturday. The Yellow Jackets have been remarkably inconsistent in 2020 and there’s no reason to believe they’ll “show up” here. The offense has a horrible turnover problem and it should be “tough sledding” against a Pitt defense that’s allowing only 2.8 yards/rush and leads the country in sacks. As a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, Pitt is 6-3 SU and ATS its L9. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 pts, Ga Tech is 1-7 SU and ATS L8. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA | |||||||
12-09-20 | SE Missouri State v. Lipscomb -6.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIPSCOMB Lipscomb is looking to snap a four-game losing skid on Wednesday as it hosts SE Missouri State. In an interesting twist, these teams just played Monday. SE Missouri State won 82-77 as a 4-point home underdog despite Lipscomb shooting an impressive 55% from the field. One might think the Bisons could be in some trouble here given how hard it is to duplicate that kind of shooting. But we don’t see them taking 11 fewer shots than SE Missouri State again. This is Lipscomb’s first home game so a 1-4 start really isn’t that concerning. Two of the losses were close and the other two were at Cincinnati and Arkansas. It’s tough to beat the same opponent twice in a row and it’s not as if SE Missouri State is a good team. This will be the 4th straight game they’re underdogs and we see some value here as Lipscomb went off as the favorite, on the road, in that first meeting. Expect a double digit win by the home team Wednesday. Play on LIPSCOMB AAA | |||||||
12-09-20 | Chattanooga v. Bellarmine +2.5 | Top | 77-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BELLARMINE Don’t feel bad if you’ve never heard of Bellarmine. The University, located in Louisville, KY, is new to Division I this season. They just picked up their first ever DI victory two days ago, beating Howard 84-63. This will be their first ever home game as a DI school, so it’s a pretty big deal (even without fans present). They host Chattanooga, who has opened 4-0. Besides Howard, the Knights’ only other game thus far was against Duke and they were actually competitive in the first half of that game. Despite being unbeaten, Chattanooga is in a bit of a tough situation here playing its second road game in three days. They won at Middle Tennessee Monday 80-70 as two-point pups. That victory seems to have influenced this line greatly, but we see value on what should be a fired up Bellarmine team. Play on BELLARMINE AAA | |||||||
12-08-20 | Illinois +4 v. Duke | Top | 83-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ILLINOIS #6 Illinois takes on #10 Duke as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge on Tuesday. This is also one of two matchups of Top 10 opponents on tonight’s card (Creighton-Kansas). The Illini will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 89-62 defeat they suffered at the hands of #2 Baylor last week. Duke also knows what it’s like to taste defeat as they fell last Tuesday to Michigan State. That game was played in Cameron and while the Blue Devils have since bounced back (76-54 win over Bellarmine), that win really proves nothing. Duke is 0-3 ATS and seemingly overrated at #10 in the polls. A second home loss to a top 10 Big 10 opponent is certainly not out of the realm of possibility here as Illinois is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. We like what we saw from the Illini in the first few games and believe them to be a legit Top 10 team. We don’t feel the same about Duke right now as they’ve used eight different players in the starting five so far and had just two double digit scorers in the last game. They’re young. Play on ILLINOIS AAA | |||||||
12-08-20 | Morgan State v. Iona -8 | Top | 83-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IONA Iona and Morgan State are both 1-1 having lost their respective openers and then coming back to win the second time out. But while the records are the same, the paths were very different. Iona has played Seton Hall and Hofstra, both on the road. Morgan State has faced Mt. St. Marys and Lincoln PA, both at home. Before you go writing off Hofstra as a strong opponent, Iona was an 8.5-point underdog against them. By the way, the Gaels are now being coached by Rick Pitino. Now he’s favored for the first time in almost three years. Given that Morgan State just allowed 94 to Lincoln PA after scoring only 55 vs. MSM, this should be an easy one for Pitino’s team. Iona leads all MAAC teams, scoring 73 points/game. They have three players that account for 67 percent of the scoring. Isaiah Ross is their best player as he’s shooting 52% from three and 99% from the free throw line. Iona is 4-0 all-time vs. Morgan State and should take advantage of a Bears team that is 0 for its last 5 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Play on IONA AAA | |||||||
12-07-20 | Fairfield v. Hartford -3.5 | Top | 54-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HARTFORD After starting 0-2 (losses to UConn and Villanova), Hartford has started to gain some momentum with back to back wins. One of those was against Fairfield, who they’ll play again tonight. Fairfield is 0-3 and while they’ve been “in” the last two games (lost 66-61 to Hartford), it’s tough to imagine the Stags winning on the road tonight after the lost to Hartford at home. Neither team shot well in the first meeting, although Fairfield did make 7 of its 18 three-point attempts while Hartford was just 8 of 28. We don’t see them shooting that much better from distance now that they’re the road team nor do we believe they’ll hold a +9 edge in free throw attempts like they enjoyed last week. Really, the fact Fairfield couldn’t beat this Hartford team at home is a bad sign. The Stags have lost 45 of their last 66 games overall including 8-23 on the road. Play on HARTFORD AAA | |||||||
12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 19 m | Show |
Ths is a 9* on KC Kansas City has won three straight close games. They beat Carolina by 2, Las Vegas by 4 and Tampa Bay by 3. But really the only game they were in danger of losing was the one in Vegas. They never trailed in Tampa last week and failed to cover only because of a garbage time TD. We see the Chiefs having no problems beating a TERRIBLE Denver team this week. The Broncos infamously had “no QB” last week vs. the Saints and that went as well you’d expect. They lost 31-3 at home. Just to illustrate how far apart these two AFC West sides are - Kansas City has been favored in 10 of 11 games this year while Denver has been an underdog in all 11. The Chiefs have also beaten the Broncos 10 straight times including 43-16 earlier in the year. That was the third straight win by at least 20 in this division rivalry. KC is 8-1-1 ATS in those 10 meetings. It really doesn’t matter who plays QB for Denver this week, they simply are incapable of scoring enough to stay within the spread against the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes vs. Drew Lock is a major mismatch in favor of the home team. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA | |||||||
12-06-20 | Washington State v. USC -11 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
analysis to follow | |||||||
12-06-20 | Seattle University v. Long Beach State -4.5 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LBSU Long Beach State’s season didn’t get off to a good start as they lost by 24 at Loyola Marymount on Friday. But the 49ers have what looks to be their easiest game of the non-conference slate here on Sunday as they host a Seattle team that’s coming off two straight double digit losses, the more recent coming by 26 against UCLA. Coach Dan Monson has been known for challenging his team with tough non-conference schedules ever since he arrived here in Long Beach back in 2007. The 49ers didn’t “show up” for the season opener, but they will for what is their lone home game between now and the 1st of the year. This is a shockingly low spread in our eyes, but we’ll take it as LBSU is 5-0 (straight up) the past three seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They’ve won over two-thirds of the time in that role. Seattle is shooting below 30% from three-point range so far. LBSU has revenge for an ugly 22-point loss up the coast from last season. Play on LONG BEACH STATE AAA | |||||||
12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA Arizona is 6-5. But if not for a Hail Mary against Buffalo three weeks ago, they’d be below .500 and on a four-game losing streak entering this week. The Cardinals have struggled when favored this season, going just 2-5 ATS as chalk. So we were quite pleased at the early line movement for this NFC West showdown with the Rams. This is the first of two meetings between these teams. The Rams are 7-4, but they too suffered an upset loss last week - 23-20 to San Francisco. The Rams defense hasn’t been as good on the road (23.3 PPG allowed vs. 15.0 at home), which is good news for Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense. Back to the spread, the Cardinals are 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog for coach Kingsbury. We look for Arizona to snap its four-game ATS losing streak this week and probably its six-game (straight up) losing streak to the Rams. We don’t think that LA should be favored in this game. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
12-06-20 | Browns v. Titans -5.5 | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TENNESSEE Cleveland is an exceptionally weak 8-3 team. Let’s start with the fact they’ve given up more points than they’ve scored. Not even 4-7 Atlanta can say that! What the Browns have been doing is winning the games “they should” (i.e. when favored) and usually close. They are 7-1 SU as favorites in 2020. However their last four wins, which were against Jacksonville, Houston, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all teams with losing records) have come by a combined 13 points (none by more than five points). The Browns are not favored this week against a fellow 8-3 team in Tennessee. They lost by 32 at Baltimore and 31 at Pittsburgh. That’s something that jumps out to us, as the Titans played both teams tough, even defeating the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) on the road. The Titans looked GREAT last week in putting up 45 points on a short-handed Colts defense. Ryan Tannehill has proven himself to be a very good NFL QB (certainly better than Baker Mayfield) and a key to his success is not turning the ball over. Tennessee has the fewest number of giveaways in the league right now. They’ll win comfortably on Sunday. Play on TENNESSEE AAA | |||||||
12-06-20 | Bengals +11.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 7-19 | Loss | -103 | 91 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati’s straight up record is just 2-8-1. But this is a team that competes. They are 7-4 ATS with two of the non-covers coming vs. league heavyweights Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Just look at what they did last week. Playing for the first time without Joe Burrow (OFY), they were able to stay within the 6.5-point spread against the Giants, losing only 19-17. Now it took a special teams touchdown to do that, but give credit to a defense that has allowed 20 points or fewer in three of its last four games. We laid the points with Miami last week but did so against a completely inept (and winless) Jets team. This week’s spread is higher and we just don’t see the Dolphins as a team you’d want to lay double digits with. It’s only the fifth time Miami has been favored all season. Other than against the Jets, they have not had to lay more than four to any opponent. This is the first game where they’ve had to lay 10 or more in over a decade! We don’t know who the starting QB will be for the Dolphins, but will take the points anyway in what figures to be another close loss for Cincinnati. Play on CINCINNATI AAA | |||||||
12-05-20 | Boston College v. Virginia -6 | Top | 32-43 | Win | 100 | 99 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 9* on VIRGINIA We think it's fair to say that both Boston College and Virginia have surpassed expectations in 2020. Boston College is 6-4, pulling some upsets along the way. First year coach Jeff Hafley has done a good job as has his QB Phil Jurkovec. But Jurkovec and top rusher David Bailey suffered injuries in last week’s win over Louisville. While both are listed atop their respective depth charts, the injuries are something worth monitoring. Virginia is going to be highly motivated for this game as they have never beaten BC in six all-time matchups. Getting back to this season, the Cavaliers have covered four straight, winning the last three straight up and should be fresh off a bye week. They were supposed to have faced Florida State last week, but that didn’t happen. Before that they face Abilene Christian so it’s been several weeks since they’ve been tested. The fact the Cavs beat North Carolina here at home carries a lot of weight with us as does their 16-2 SU record in the last 18 home games (12-5-1 ATS). When playing with at least two weeks rest, Virginia is 5-0 ATS the past three seasons. Play on VIRGINIA AAA | |||||||
12-05-20 | Penn State v. Rutgers +11.5 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on RUTGERS Penn State finally broke into the win column as it defeated another struggling “blue blood” (Michigan) 27-17 on the road. That was also the first time all season that the Nittany Lions covered the spread. While not as bad as their record indicates, last week’s performance didn’t say to us that PSU was anywhere close to deserving of its Top 15 preseason ranking. It’s back to laying double digits this week, on the road, against a Rutgers team that’s been competitive in 2020. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS as underdogs so far and just pulled their second upset of the season, beating Purdue 37-30 last week in West Lafayette. Before that, Rutgers had suffered close losses to Michigan (49-43) and Illinois (23-20), the former being a multi-overtime affair. So we don’t see the Scarlet Knights getting blown out at home here. After getting the proverbial “monkey off their back” last week, there’s going to be a tendency for Penn State to “ease up” this week. They’ve covered just one of the last five times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. You’d have to go back to September 2018 to find the last time the Nittany Lions covered the spread in two straight games. Play on RUTGERS AAA | |||||||
12-05-20 | Oklahoma State -2.5 v. TCU | Top | 22-29 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OK State Oklahoma State is set to meet TCU this week as the Cowboys look to further distance themselves from the beating they took from rival Oklahoma in Bedlam two weeks ago. Minus their top two running backs, the Pokes still were able to put up 50 points and over 500 yards last week in a win over Texas Tech. They didn’t cover, but that’s because they were laying double digits and gave up two late touchdowns to the Red Raiders to make it a 50-44 final. TCU, who is just 5-11 ATS its last 16 home games, doesn’t have the kind of firepower to keep pace here. Though they did score 59 last week, that was against Kansas, so it really “doesn’t count.” They also scored three non-offensive touchdowns in that contest. Oklahoma State is certainly better than the last three teams TCU has beaten and the Cowboys have won 10 of their last 12 games when the line is a field goal or less either way. The Horned Frogs have been hit hard by COVID and were missing upwards of 30 players last week. That’s not good. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA | |||||||
12-05-20 | Rice v. Marshall -23 | Top | 20-0 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARSHALL Marshall is still undefeated (7-0) and ranked 21st in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. They’re not getting much respect nationwide (they are 15th in both AP & Coaches Polls), but they could probably care less. The Thundering Herd are winning by an average of 27.3 points/game and have covered all but two times. One of those two ATS losses was as a 44-point favorite vs. UMass, a game they won 51-10. The other was a 20-9 win over an FAU team that has a really good defense. Rice does not have a good defense nor are they getting 44 points this week in Huntington. This will be just game #4 for the Owls, whose season did not get underway until October 24th. They played just one game in November and lost 27-17 to North Texas. The three teams Rice has played - Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss and North Texas - are all terrible and in no way prepares them for this huge step up in class. Marshall has been off for 21 days and looking to beat up on somebody. Rice will oblige. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Jack Jones | $965 |
Ricky Tran | $708 |
Big Al McMordie | $662 |
Ross Benjamin | $640 |
Sean Murphy | $620 |
ProSportsPicks | $615 |
AAA Sports | $424 |
Nick Parsons | $306 |
Matt Fargo | $305 |
Dan Kaiser | $215 |