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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|04-19-19||Mariners v. Angels UNDER 9||Top||5-3||Win||100||14 h 15 m||Show|
This is an 8* play UNDER Seattle-LA Angels
Something had to give last night as the Mariners, losers of six in a row, took on an Angels team that had dropped three straight. Turns out that it was the former's losing skid that came to an end and it did so in a way that has been all too familiar - Seattle scoring a ton of runs. They won 11-10, increasing their league leading total of runs scored to 143 (in 22 games played). The Mariners actually blew an 8-run advantage before scoring the go-ahead run in the top of the 9th. The Angels scored all but one of their runs in one inning (7th) and the absence of a big inning tonight is probable for a team that's gone 13-5-1 Under in all games this season. Even worse is they are facing a lefty (Marco Gonzales) and are 1-4 vs. lefties (Under is 5-0), scoring only 1.8 runs/game and batting .173. Gonzales has allowed three runs or fewer in three straight starts. Seattle had cooled off considerably at the plate before yesterday's explosion. During the six-game losing streak, all of which was at home, they had scored a total of 15 runs. Angels starter Pena has a 1.05 ERA in two home starts. Play UNDER Seattle-LA Angels
|04-19-19||Royals v. Yankees UNDER 9||Top||2-6||Win||100||11 h 13 m||Show|
This is a 10* play UNDER Royals-Yankees
The surprising thing about last night's game between the Royals and Yankees was who won. The Royals punched a ticket at +182 on the money line, winning 6-1 here at Yankee Stadium. New York continues to struggle as their record is 8-10, although having a positive run differential says they've played better than you might think. What was not surprising about last night's game is that it stayed Under the total. The Yankees last five games have all stayed Under. For the Royals, that streak is four straight. Expect tonight's game to be another low scoring affair. The Yankees are averaging only 3.8 runs per game at home. We mentioned that in another Under play we had on them earlier this week (against Boston). The Royals are scoring even less on the road (3.4 runs/game) while batting .218. All three Jake Junis starts have gone Over this year, but it's critical to note two of them did not see more than nine total runs scored. CC Sabathia pitched better than anyone could have imagined in his only start. He held the White Sox scoreless for five frames while allowing just one hit. Play UNDER Royals-Yankees
|04-18-19||Blue Jays v. Twins -172||Top||7-4||Loss||-172||5 h 9 m||Show|
This is a 7* play on MINNESOTA
Minnesota finally broke through with a win in this series, beating Toronto yesterday by a count of 4-1. Monday had seen them lose 5-3 (thanks to the bullpen blowing a 3-1 lead in the 8th inning) and then Tuesday was a one-run loss. So you could say that the Twins were due yesterday and sure enough they came through. The teams finish out the four-game set today with a pitching matchup of Clay Buchholz vs. Michael Pineda. We think it's fair to still be concerned about a Blue Jays lineup that is batting only .215 this season. The Twins are 3-0 in starts made by Pineda so far with him delivering a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Buchholz has pitched just once, delivering Toronto a huge upset (at +190) against Tampa Bay. The Jays nearly wasted his effort as they were scoreless until the ninth when they struck for three runs. This being a day game would seem to favor the home team. Minnesota is already 6-2 in day games this season while Toronto is just 4-5. Twins earn a split of the series. Play on MINNESOTA
|04-17-19||Giants v. Nationals UNDER 9||Top||6-9||Loss||-120||11 h 51 m||Show|
This is an 8* play UNDER San Francisco-Washington
The Giants are one of the weakest teams offensively in either league. They rank dead last in OPS and are bottom three in both runs scored and team batting average. So selecting the Under when they take the field seems only natural. We really like the idea of doing so tonight as they actually scored seven times last night, which matched a season high for them. In more than half of their games (11 of 19), the Giants have been held to three runs or less. Washington knows that feeling as well. They've been held to exactly three runs in four straight games. The Giants shocking hit 3 HR's last night off Stephen Strasburg, matching the total # of HR's hit from the previous six games combined. Look for the power surge to be short-lived, however, as they go up against Jeremy Hellickson, who threw six shutout innings at Philadelphia exactly one week ago. Hellickson also has a history of success when facing San Francisco. The Under is 16-3 in his last 19 starts. History has not been kind to Giants starter Jeff Samardzija when facing the Nationals, but he has pitched well in 2019 (1.62 ERA in three starts) and is being backed by a bullpen that entered yesterday's game with a 1.77 ERA. Play UNDER San Francisco-Washington
|04-17-19||Indians v. Mariners UNDER 8||Top||1-0||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
This is an 8* play UNDER Cleveland-Seattle
My, oh my, has Seattle hit the skids. It's now five losses in a row. Can't say that we're surprised considering they couldn't possibly continue the torrid pace they set at the plate to start the year. They have actually homered in every game this season, but they're getting little else, at least recently. The last four games have seen the Mariners score a grand total of 9 runs. Meanwhile, Cleveland hasn't had much offense all season. Not that they've needed much in this series, but 10 runs scored in two games is actually a lot for the Indians. They are averaging just 3.6 runs/game with a team batting average of .207. They are bottom four not only in team batting average, but also in OPS. Carlos Carrasco has not pitched well on the road so far, turning in two pretty dreadful showings. But we expect Carrasco to resemble the pitcher of the last few seasons today. Pitching for Seattle will be Erik Swanson, who is starting for the first time at the big league level. While he's worked in relief previously, Swanson is still an unknown to the Cleveland hitters, so that's an advantage for the pitcher. Take our word for it - this is going to be a low scoring game. Play UNDER Cleveland-Seattle
|04-17-19||Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 9.5||Top||3-5||Win||100||10 h 22 m||Show|
This is an 8* play UNDER Red Sox-Yankees
Are the Red Sox actually BAD? By the numbers, the answer would be a resounding "yes." Last night's loss dropped them to 6-12 on the season. It's not just that they are losing though. They are routinely getting crushed. The Yankees beat them 8-0 Tuesday, which drops the Red Sox season run differential to -40. Only Miami, who isn't even trying this year, has been outscored by more runs. The culprit for Boston has been awful pitching as they've given up the most runs. But a once mighty lineup isn't scoring anywhere close to the same rate as last season. Take the last two games. They've scored just ONE run. The team is hitting just .229 this season. Yes, both of tonight's starting pitchers have not been good. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has a 3-0 team start record, but both his ERA (8.40) and WHIP (1.867) aren't good. The same holds true for J.A. Happ of the Yankees as he has an 8.76 ERA and 1.946 WHIP. But despite these gaudy numbers, we expect tonight's game to go Under. Boston just isn't doing much scoring while the Yankees are only averaging 4.0 runs/game at home. The Under is 6-1 the last 7 games here. This would have been an appropriate total last season, not this season. Play UNDER Red Sox-Yankees
|04-16-19||Reds v. Dodgers -169||Top||1-6||Win||100||14 h 14 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on LOS ANGELES
A curious thing happened last year when the Dodgers played the Reds. They lost six of the seven games. Given that the Dodgers won 92 games and the Reds just 67, those head to head results made little sense. So with LA having dropped six of seven overall going into last night, you can bet they were extra motivated and sure enough they came away with a 4-3 victory. Now it wasn't easy as they won in the bottom of the ninth via a Joc Pederson home run. But look for that to have a carry over type effect into Tuesday when the Dodgers sent Kenta Maeda to the mound. Maeda has already been the beneficiary of the NL's top scoring offense with the Dodgers scoring 28 runs in his first two starts. He was not at his best last week in St. Louis, but a return home should do him some good as will facing this anemic Reds lineup that is hitting only .204 on the road. Cincy has topped five runs in a game only one time and has been been held to three or less eight times. Tyler Mahle has done his best in two previous starts, but the team has scored just two runs total for him. Dodgers win here. Play on LOS ANGELES
|04-15-19||Cardinals v. Brewers -132||Top||7-10||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE
St. Louis faces a tall order having to go from Mexico to Miller Park in Milwaukee in a 24-hour span. Awaiting them will be a Brewers club that is already 3-1 against the Cards this year. That series was also played here in Milwaukee. Now we went against the Brewers (to great success) Sunday as they went down 7-1 out in Los Angeles. But that should not cloud the fact that the Brewers won the first two games of that series. The Dodgers were desperate yesterday (had lost six in a row), which is why we went so big on them. Both of tonight's starters will be making their second start of the year against the respective opponents and each hopes the second time around goes better than the first. For Milwaukee, Peralta allowed four runs in three innings to St. Louis in a 9-5 loss on 3.29. The following day, Hudson gave up three home runs in 4 1/3 innings as the Cardinals lost 4-2. Milwaukee is a REALLY good home team. That's confirmed by a 43-15 WL record when priced between -125 and -175 on the money line the last three seasons. Play MILWAUKEE
|04-15-19||Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 11||Top||8-1||Loss||-111||4 h 50 m||Show|
This is an 8* play OVER Baltimore-Boston
In celebration of the Boston Marathon, we expect plenty of runs to be scored in this early start Monday. This is the finale of a four-game set that started Friday. Boston has won 2 of 3, including 4-0 on Sunday. But in terms of runs allowed this season, these teams are the two worst. They're both 6-10, something that Red Sox could not possibly have expected. It was a 9-5 loss Saturday. But Boston is a huge favorite here as they'll go up against Dan Straily, who struggled mightily in his first start of the year. He gave up five runs in 3 1/3 IP and allowed two home runs. Yesterday's game may have gone Under, but Baltimore is still 11-5 Over in all games while Boston is 10-5-1. The Red Sox go with Hector Velazquez, who may not be expected to go long considering he went just three innings in his only other start. Going into yesterday, the Red Sox were giving up 6.5 runs per game. They were averaging 5.7 themselves. Play OVER Baltimore-Boston
|04-14-19||Padres v. Diamondbacks -135||Top||4-8||Win||100||8 h 58 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on ARIZONA
Arizona hopes to avoid what would be a 4-game sweep, at home no less, here vs. San Diego. They have Zack Greinke on the mound at what looks to be an incredibly cheap price. Note all three losses in this series have been by one run. Part of the reason Greinke is so cheap Sunday is he hasn't been that effective so far this year. A 7.16 ERA is not what you'd expect to see from him after three starts, but that's where he's at. However, Greinke is still feeling the effects of a very poor first start. He's been better in the last two, one of which was against the Padres. He had a 10-0 strikeout to walk ratio over six innings, holding SD to just three runs. San Diego has been one of Grienke's favorite opponents in his career as he's 12-2 against them lifetime with a 2.29 ERA in 23 starts. Greinke even homered TWICE in that last start vs. San Diego. One again, he'll be opposed by Eric Lauer, who has struggled some in his last two starts, giving up 9 runs in 11 innings and three home runs. We just don't see the Padres being able to finish off the sweep here. Play on ARIZONA
|04-14-19||Brewers v. Dodgers -137||Top||1-7||Win||100||8 h 58 m||Show|
This is a 10* Play on the DODGERS
The Dodgers are reeling right now, having lost six straight. They were swept out in St. Louis to start the week and now are on the verge of suffering the same fate at the hands of Milwaukee, this time at home. But fear not fans of Dodger Blue, we believe you're team is going to check back into the win column today, led by Ross Stripling, who has pitched better than his 0-1 record shows. Speaking of better than their record, the Dodgers are +16 in runs scored vs. allowed (a NL best), despite being only 8-8. On the other hand Milwaukee has managed to go 10-5 despite giving up the same number of runs that they have scored. Only the Mariners, who are off to a record-setting start, have scored more runs this year than the Dodgers. And remember LA doesn't have a DH in its lineup. Look for a lineup averaging 6.8 runs per game at Chavez Ravine to get to Brewers starter Jhoulys Chacin, who they know well from his time in Colorado and Arizona. Even though he allowed only three runs in 6 1/3 innings his last start, Chacin still took the loss as he issued more walks (3) and gave up more home runs (2) than he had strikeouts (1). Play LA DODGERS
|04-13-19||Tigers v. Twins -176||Top||3-4||Win||100||6 h 45 m||Show|
This is a 6* play on MINNESOTA
We like the Twins in this spot quite a bit coming off a postponement on Friday. This will be just the second series so far at Target Field and when priced at -125 or higher, the home team is usually a safe bet here. Minny's record the last three seasons in that range is 45-25. They are 13-4 when -175 or higher. Overall, this has been a good home team with a 91-72 record here since the start of the 2017 season. The Twins also have Michael Pineda going. In two starts, he's allowed just two runs and five hits. That's a 2.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP. Facing a Tigers team that's averaging just 1.7 runs per game on the road so far should be "easy pickings" for Pineda. Detroit is actually 8-5, but we wouldn't advise taking them too seriously at this point as they've faced a lot of "light-hitting" teams and sweeping Kansas City really isn't impressive. We look for the Twins to score plenty against Tyson Ross, who gave up two homers and four walks in his only prior start on the road. Play MINNESOTA
|04-13-19||Tigers v. Twins OVER 8||Top||3-4||Loss||-105||6 h 45 m||Show|
This is an 8* play OVER Detroit-Minnesota
So, we also like the Over in this game. Even though Twins starter Pineda doesn't figure to have much difficulty mowing down the Tigers lineup, expect the road team to still score a couple runs. But Minny will do the heavy lifting here as they impressively scored 20 runs in their last two games (at a NL park). Detroit's Tyson Ross was dominant in his last start, but that was because he got to face the Royals, who make any pitcher look good. More telling was Ross giving up multiple home runs and four walks to the Yankees in his first start. He lasted just five innings there. The Twins have scored at least five runs in six of the last eight games. The Over is 6-2 in those games. We think they can easily get to 5 here, if not more, and this is a low total. (We probably should have mentioned in the writeup for the side that the Twins are also 14-2 in their last 16 division games). Play OVER Detroit-Minnesota
|04-13-19||Orioles v. Red Sox OVER 10.5||Top||9-5||Win||100||5 h 40 m||Show|
This is an 8* play OVER Baltimore-Boston
Expect plenty of fireworks (i.e. scoring) in this game. Baltimore figures to be a welcome sight for a Boston team that has struggled out of the gate. The Red Sox are only 5-9, which is the same record as the Orioles, something most never thought they'd see - even this early in the season. As expected, Boston took care of its business last night, winning 6-4. They are now 17-3 the L2 seasons against the Orioles. This is also the first time all year Boston has won back to back games. As bad as the Orioles look to be on paper, Rick Porcello is not someone we'd want to invest our money in right now. The Red Sox starter for Saturday has a 13.49 ERA and 3.134 WHIP after two starts, both of which have gone Over. Baltimore is going with Andrew Cashner today and he hasn't been much better with a 5.28 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Yesterday (where they still allowed 6 runs, mind you) snapped a seven-game Over run for the O's. These teams have given up the most and second most runs in all of baseball entering Saturday's games. Play OVER Baltimore-Boston
|04-12-19||A's v. Rangers OVER 10.5||Top||8-6||Win||100||13 h 32 m||Show|
This is an 8* play OVER Oakland-Texas
After losing the first game of the series in Baltimore 12-4, the A's steamrolled the Orioles over the next three games, scoring 31 runs in the process. The Over is 5-0 the last five times they've taken the field with them scoring 43 runs by their lonesome. Arlington is generally a place where scoring is not a problem, thus we expect another Over for Oakland tonight. The Rangers are coming off a 2-4 road trip that saw them score 11 runs in the first game (win) but only 13 total in the next five. A return home should do wonders for the Texas offense though as they put up an average of 5.7 runs in their six home games to start the year. Unfortunately, they're also sending out Drew Smyly, whose two starts have not gone well. He's yet to last more than 3 1/3 innings and that's a problem with a bullpen that has a high ERA and WHIP. Oakland's Michael Fiers is off a disastrous showing in Houston where he gave up six runs and couldn't even get out of the second inning. That raised his ERA and WHIP to 5.94 and 1.56 for the year. Play OVER Oakland-Texas
|04-12-19||Phillies v. Marlins OVER 8||Top||9-1||Win||100||12 h 38 m||Show|
This is a 10* play OVER Philly-Miami
The Phillies got shellacked in their last two games, giving up 25 runs in pair of losses to the Nationals. But it'll likely be them doing the shellacking here as they head to Miami for a three-game series against the struggling Marlins. In the first week of the season, Philly had no trouble scoring as they put eight or more runs on the board five times in the first six games. But since then, they've scored no more than six in a game and been held to two runs or less in three of their last five. Now that's nothing compared to what happened to Miami in its last series as the Marlins got swept in Cincinnati. They scored ONE run in the three games! We look for both offenses to turn things around tonight, however. The Over is 4-1 the last five times the teams have played against each other. The Marlins are 10-4-1 Over the L15 home games when coming off a road trip of 7 or more days. Starterd Sandy Alcantaras has looked good at times, but had five walks and zero strikeouts in his last start. Philly goes with veteran Jake Arrieta, who is 33 years old and seen his ERA go up each of the last three seasons. He has more walks than strikeouts after two starts. Play OVER Philadelphia-Miami
|04-11-19||Blue Jays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5||Top||6-7||Win||102||11 h 25 m||Show|
This is a 10* play OVER Toronto-Boston
Toronto scored 7 runs Tuesday, which may not sound like much, but it was a season-high for them. It also, not shockingly, came against the team which has given up the second most runs in all of baseball, that being Boston. The Red Sox, like the Blue Jays, have had their own offensive woes to start the season. But both teams woes should be cured, at least temporarily, by facing each other. Wednesday was an off-day, but I expect the scoring to resume early and often tonight. You have Aaron Sanchez pitching for the visitors. He has faced two weak offenses so far (Cleveland, Detroit), so tonight will be a test. Sanchez has an ERA north of 4.00 in 19 career starts vs. the Red Sox. Boston will go with Nathan Eovaldi in this spot. While his TSR is 2-0, Eovaldi hasn't really pitched all that well. He's given up 9 runs and 12 hits in 10 innings so far. Going back to the end of last season, the Over is 5-0 his last five starts. Dustin Pedroia is now back to help the Boston offense too. Play OVER Toronto-Boston
|04-11-19||A's -147 v. Orioles||Top||8-5||Win||100||5 h 51 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND
Oakland lost the first game of this series 12-4. That left them with a four-game losing streak and at the time, they were 0-6 on the road (including two losses in Japan to start the year). But the A's have been able to bounce back with a couple easy wins the last two days. We were on them when they crushed Baltimore 13-2 Tuesday. It was more of the same yesterday in a 10-3 triumph. Oakland's lineup has feasted off Baltimore pitching with 38 hits in the three games. They homered five times last night. In the pitching department, the A's turn to Aaron Brooks for Thursday's finale while Baltimore will go with Dylan Bundy. Brooks struggled at Houston in his last start, but had previously worked six scoreless innings against Boston (gave up just two hits). That's at least something as opposed to Bundy, who didn't last long in either of his two starts (both 3 2/3 innings), both of which were against the Yankees. He's allowed six runs in 7 1/3. By the way, the Orioles are 12-25 the past three seasons after giving up 10 or more runs in their last game. Play on OAKLAND
|04-10-19||Nationals v. Phillies -152||Top||15-1||Loss||-152||11 h 31 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA
The Phillies blew a chance to move to 8-2 on the year, losing to the Nationals yesterday by a score of 10-6. The game went to extra innings after Washington tied it up a six runs apiece in the top of the ninth. Then, Juan Soto's three-run homer in the top of the 10th won it. But we should not let one singular result cloud our view of Philly. They have the best win percentage in the National League and are 6-2 at home so far. There is some concern with the way starter Nick Pivetta has pitched against Washington in the past and he's been far from dominant in his two starts this season. But the Nationals entered yesterday with the worst bullpen ERA in the NL and their own starter, Jeremy Hellickson, has question marks as well. Hellickson, a former Phillie, has not yet started in 2019. But he did allow two runs in one relief effort, against his former team, back on April 2nd. Philadelphia had a five-run lead in yesterday's game. While they're 2-2 vs. Washington so far, they easily could be 4-0 as they blew 9th inning leads in both losses. Play on PHILADELPHIA
|04-10-19||Rays -147 v. White Sox||Top||9-1||Win||100||7 h 41 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on Tampa Bay
The Rays were an easy winner for us yesterday, so why not come back with them today? To this point, they have performed to the level of one of the best teams in baseball, particularly on the pitching side of the ledger. Through 12 games, they've allowed just 25 runs, which is easily MLB's best on a per game basis. While they did allow five runs yesterday, it hardly mattered with the offense performing the way it did. With four straight series wins to open the season (club record), they've matched their best overall start in nine years. They also beat Chicago 5-1 on Monday and with Tyler Glasnow (2-0, 0.82 ERA) on the bump today, we see no reason why they won't sweep. Glasnow has allowed just 1 ER in 11 innings so far. As for White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez, he's allowed 10 runs in his first nine innings pitched this season. Lopez was touched up for three home runs his last time out. An utter and complete mismatch this afternoon. Play on TAMPA BAY
|04-09-19||A's -154 v. Orioles||Top||13-2||Win||100||11 h 45 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on OAKLAND
We played the Over on this matchup yesterday and that was a very easy win as Baltimore jumped all over Oakland starter Marco Estrada, scoring four times in the first two innings and six times all together before Estrada exited after four. The game had gone Over by the sixth inning, then just for "good measure" the Orioles tacked on five more in the bottom of the eighth to make it a 12-4 win. We expect the A's to rebound Tuesday. While Oakland still has yet to win a game away from home this season (either in Japan or the U.S.), playing Baltimore should change that. The Orioles failed to even win 50 games last season and had lost four in a row before busting loose on Monday. They're a respectable 5-5 so far, but expecting them to continue to play at a .500 level seems foolish. They still should lose 100+ games this season. Oakland is 2-0 with tonight's starter Brett Anderson on the mound as he's allowed only three runs in 11 2/3 innings of work. After going 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position yesterday (did have 11 hits total), expect more "timely" hitting from the Athletics today as they face John Means, who usually comes out of the bullpen. Play on OAKLAND
|04-09-19||Rays -154 v. White Sox||Top||10-5||Win||100||6 h 50 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on TAMPA BAY
Tampa Bay easily handled its business Monday afternoon, downing the White Sox by a score of 5-1. We expect a similar result this afternoon. Rays pitching has been downright filthy to this point, allowing just 20 runs in 11 games. That's pretty easily the best in MLB. Since a loss on Opening Day, the team has gone 8-2 with one of the losses coming in extra innings (and it was 1-0 game). Charlie Morton will start today and he's looked good in his first two starts of the year (1.64 ERA). He'll look to continue a streak that has seen Rays pitching not give up a run in 36 of the past 37 innings. They've allowed 2 runs or fewer in 9 of 11 games. As for Chicago, Ervin Santana is a big question mark. He was limited to four starts last year because of injury. He has a 5.31 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Tampa, though he has not faced them since 2016. Ultimately though, this one comes down to the fact the White Sox will again struggle to score runs. They are also just 47-78 in day games the past three seasons. Play on TAMPA BAY
|04-08-19||A's v. Orioles OVER 9||Top||4-12||Win||100||15 h 16 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on OVER Oakland-Baltimore
Both clubs are limping into this series. Oakland just got swept in Houston while Baltimore suffered the same fate over the weekend, at home against the Yankees. The Orioles have lost four straight overall as you have to remember they're likely to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball. The A's have yet to win a game away from home. So something will have to give tonight in Camden Yards. Whomever wins, expect plenty of runs to be scored in this one. In the three games vs. the Yankees, Baltimore pitching conceded 29 runs with their bullpen posting a 14.22 ERA and 2.53 WHIP. Tonight's starter Andrew Cashner has a 5.40 ERA and 1.70 WHIP after two outings. Oakland goes with Marco Estrada, who looked great in his first outing, but not so much the second. Estrada is far from overpowering. In road games, the A's are allowing an average of 6.4 runs. Play OVER Oakland-Baltimore
|04-07-19||Dodgers -138 v. Rockies||Top||12-6||Win||100||12 h 13 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on LA DODGERS
The Dodgers are gunning for a sweep and their fifth win in a row overall Sunday night as they wrap up their series with division rival Colorado. The Rockies started out 2-0, but have subsequently dropped six of seven with the lone victory coming by a score of 1-0 in Tampa Bay and even that took extra innings. So it's not a good time to be playing them right now. With them having to face Julio Urias, it would appear to be a great time to fade. Urias tossed five shutout innings last Monday vs. San Francisco, but the bullpen unfortunately couldn't finish the job. That 4-2 setback was the last time the Dodgers lost however. Something else to keep in mind is that Urias was excellent in the Spring. He was 2-0 in Catcus League play, posting a 1.72 ERA and 0.51 WHIP. He gave up just three runs in 15 2/3 innings and had 15 strikeouts. The Rockies go with Chad Bettis in this spot and he was hit hard in his first start of the regular season, giving up six runs. Bettis has struggled in the past vs. the Dodgers (4.85 ERA) as has his entire team. LA is 37-23 vs. Colorado since the start of the 2016 season, winning 16 of the last 23 matchups. They've scored seven or more runs a quarter of the time in those L60 games while winning by four or more runs 14 times. They won 10-6 on Friday and 7-2 on Saturday. Play LA DODGERS
|04-07-19||Rangers v. Angels -140||Top||2-7||Win||100||8 h 43 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS
After losing Thursday's series opener, the Angels will look to make it three in a row Sunday afternoon at the Rangers expense. Each of the last two days have seen them hold Texas to a single run. That was after Thursday starter Matt Harvey got crushed and they gave up 11 runs. That loss left LA an AL-worst 1-6, which also matched the worst ever start to a season for the franchise. But they've now seemingly got back on track and it's Texas scrambling. Mike Trout has homered in three straight games for the Angels, who should continue to find success here against Texas pitching. The Rangers are electing to go with Shelby Miller, who permitted 10 baserunners in his first star, which lasted all of 3 2/3 innings. That was five walks and five hits. The Rangers still won, 6-4, beating the Astros as a big underdog. But that won't happen again here. The Angels will hope for something better than what they got the first time from Chris Stratton and should get it against a team that has done next to nothing offensively the last two days. Play on LOS ANGELES
|04-07-19||Marlins v. Braves UNDER 8.5||Top||3-4||Win||100||5 h 56 m||Show|
This is an 8* play UNDER Miami-Atlanta
Playing the Over with these teams did not work out yesterday. Miami was able to snap Atlanta's four-game win streak, prevailing by a final score of 4-2. All of the Marlins came from the long ball as they hit three total, two from Jorge Alfaro including the game winner in the top of the ninth. Reliance on the long ball doesn't seem like a sustainable way to score runs to me though and today Miami will face a pitcher that doesn't give up many. Braves starter Sean Newcomb has not allowed a HR in seven of his last nine starts going back to last year. He also had Miami's number in 2018, going 4-0 against them with a 0.75 ERA in four starts. That's a great sign as is the fact Newcomb didn't allow any runs in four innings in his first start of this season. He may be pitching to keep his spot in the rotation today, so expect a strong outing. Atlanta has not allowed more than four runs in any of its last five games. Miami is going with its own southpaw here in Caleb Smith, who had eight strikeouts in five innings his first start. He allowed just two runs and four hits. We made a mistake taking the Over yesterday, but are fully on board with the Under today. Play UNDER Miami-Atlanta
|04-06-19||Marlins v. Braves OVER 8.5||Top||4-2||Loss||-110||12 h 11 m||Show|
This is a 10* play OVER Miami-Atlanta
Atlanta shut Miami out last night, 4-0. It was the Braves fourth straight win and the Marlins fourth straight loss. It was the second straight series opener where the Braves shut their opponent. They beat the Cubs 8-0 on Monday and would go on to score 23 runs in that series. They are now a perfect 4-0 at home following last night's victory. Going back to last year, they've won nine in a row at SunTrust Park and they've also beaten the Marlins nine straight time at home as well. While this looks to be another easy win, and we do expect the Braves to score plenty of runs, look for Miami to cross the plate a good number of times as well. Kyle Wright is making just his second career start today for Atlanta. His first saw him walk five batters in 4 1/3 innings and allow three runs. Some of that was cold weather, but Wright has also yet to prove himself. Atlanta's bullpen hasn't been very good either. Miami's Sandy Alcantara was dominant his first time out, but that was at home. The Over is 8-0 the last eight times the Marlins have faced a team with a winning record on the road. Play OVER Miami-Atlanta
|04-05-19||A's v. Astros -166||Top||2-3||Win||100||12 h 1 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON
Houston has some nice advantages coming into tonight's home opener, one being they are simply a more talented team than the A's. Now the respective won-loss records might say otherwise, but we know it's still (very) early in the season. Houston had yesterday off while Oakland was hosting Boston. The A's won 7-3, their sixth win in eight games after starting the year with a couple losses over in Japan. But they haven't been on the road since playing in Japan and tonight will be a big test. They send Frankie Montas to the bump and he has a 7.74 ERA in four career appearances vs. the Astros. Houston goes with Collin McHugh, who is 8-1 with a 2.74 ERA in 17 career appearances vs. the A's. Houston is priced low for being at home and that's probably due to a disappointing 2-5 start. But they'll get back on track in short order, starting with a win Friday night. Play on HOUSTON
|04-04-19||Rangers v. Angels -142||Top||11-4||Loss||-142||14 h 46 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the LA ANGELS
The Angels finally get to play some games at home, starting Thursday, as they welcome in the Rangers for a four-game set. Things have not gone well for LA so far as they are 1-5, matching the franchise's worst ever start, set back in the expansion season of 1961. But Texas would seem to be the elixir that they're looking for right now. Not only have the Angels gone 13-6 head to head against the Rangers the last two years, they've beaten them five straight times, all here in Anaheim. The Rangers starter for tonight is Edinson Volquez and he pitched poorly in his first start of the year. He gave up four runs in four innings and had four walks. The Rangers did end up winning, but no thanks to Volquez. Matt Harvey toes the rubber here for Los Angeles and looked pretty good his first time out. He did allow one home run, but only two runs total in six innings and that happens to be the only game his team has won so far. Texas has yet to play a road game this year. Volquez has been bad in his career against the Angels as his ERA is 10.71 in six games. Play on LA ANGELS
|04-03-19||Cubs v. Braves OVER 8.5||Top||4-6||Win||100||11 h 48 m||Show|
This is an 8* play OVER Cubs-Braves
I played the Under on the first game of this series (Monday), which won or pushed depending on whether or not you got 8 or 8.5. But tonight, I'm looking Over with the Cubs and Braves. The teams had off yesterday. Monday was an 8-0 Braves win, their first of the season. The Cubs have given up 8, 11 and 8 runs their last three games, all of which have been losses. Jon Lester starts tonight and while he pitched well on Opening Day, this will be his first time facing the Braves since their renaissance of last season. The Over is 6-0 the last six times Lester has started on five or more days rest. In addition to having given up 27 runs in the last 24 1/3 innings, the Cubs committed six errors on Monday, their first time doing so in a 9-inning game since 1982. Fortunately the offense had scored 28 runs in the first three games before getting stymied Monday. We expect Chicago to bounce back at the plate tonight against Julio Teheran, who allowed three runs in five innings his first start of the year. Play OVER Chicago-Atlanta
|04-03-19||Mets v. Marlins UNDER 7||Top||6-4||Loss||-130||10 h 39 m||Show|
This is an 8* play UNDER Mets-Miami
With Jacob deGrom pitching, you have to figure Miami is going to struggle to score runs today. Not like they have an impressive offense to begin with. In four of six games so far, they've been held to three runs or less. deGrom should have no problems doing the same. Yes, he actually did go 0-2 vs. the Marlins last season. But 2018 also saw deGrom post the lowest single season ERA (1.70) since the mound was lowered in 1968. His first start of '19 was right in line with where he left off last season. He held Washington scoreless for six frames while striking out 10 batters. Not to be overlooked here is the performance Miami starter Trevor Richards had in his first start of the year. He allowed just one run (on four hits) in six innings of work. The fact the Marlins lost that game 6-1 (to Colorado) was obviously the fault of the bullpen. Richards also shutout the Mets for 6 2/3 innings in his final start last season. This is a game where few runs will be scored. The Mets aren't going to keep averaging more than six runs per game. Play UNDER Mets-Marlins
|04-03-19||Orioles v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5||Top||3-5||Win||100||8 h 36 m||Show|
This is an 8* play UNDER Baltimore-Toronto
Someone break up the Orioles! Last year's worst team has started 4-1 out of the gate with all of those wins coming on the division road and two were as huge underdogs in New York. The last two days have seen the O's record one-run victories in Toronto, 6-5 and then 2-1. Similar to yesterday, we think we're in store for another low-scoring affair Wednesday afternoon. You have to like the way Blue Jays starter Matt Shoemaker pitched last Friday when he threw seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. Really, with the exception of Monday, the entire Blue Jays starting staff has been pretty remarkable. Take away Monday and they were working on a 29-inning scoreless streak until Marcus Stroman gave up a pair of runs in the 6th of yesterday's game. Of course Monday saw an Orioles starter (David Hess) pulled while in the midst of a no-hitter. Nate Karns will "open" today's game for Baltimore as the first of several relievers to get on the mound. All six of Toronto's runs scored in this series have come in the final three innings. For the year, they are batting .018 (1 for 55) in the first three innings. Karns threw two shutout innings the first time he opened this year, against the Yankees. Play UNDER Orioles-Blue Jays
|04-02-19||Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7.5||Top||8-5||Win||107||14 h 57 m||Show|
This is a 10* play OVER Arizona-San Diego
The Padres are a team we've found success with in the early part of the season, playing them twice and winning both times. But both wins were at the Giants' expense and as they found out (the hard way) last night, Arizona is a much different animal. The Diamondbacks pummeled the Padres yesterday here at Petco, winning 10-3, with much of the damage done against San Diego starter Strahm. Starting pitching had been a strength for the Padres so far this season with today's starter Lauer getting the season off to a strong start with six scoreless innings on Opening Day. Again, facing Arizona is going to be a lot tougher than San Francisco was. In his rookie season (last year), Lauer was hit hard in two games against the Diamondbacks with the Arizona lineup recording a .311 batting average and Lauer ending up with a 1.50 WHIP. It sounds weird to say this, but the Diamondbacks may have to worry about Zack Greinke tonight consider how bad he looked in his first start. Greinke gave up seven runs and four homers against the Dodgers Opening Day. San Diego's offense is much more formidable now than in past years. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego
|04-02-19||Angels +100 v. Mariners||Top||1-2||Loss||-100||14 h 57 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the ANGELS
Seattle is already 6-1 thanks to starting the year in Japan where they picked up a couple wins at Oakland's expense. But they've also played pretty well here in the U.S.A. where they are 4-1 including a 6-3 win last night over the Angels. But this run is going to come to a screeching halt sooner than later. The Mariners intend to rebuild and figure to lose at least 85 games this season. Look for a loss tonight as we can't see Marco Gonzales continuing to succeed with his current numbers (4.77 ERA, 1.59 WHIP). He's 2-0, but that's thanks to the Mariners offense scoring 21 runs in those two games. The Angels might be off to a slow start, but an offense that has been held to three runs or less four times already should break out agianst Gonzales, who they saw six different times last season. Mike Trout is 8 for 17 lifetime against Gonzales. Trevor Cahill will start for LA and should pitch better than he did in Oakland on Opening Day. The last time Cahill faced the M's, he was with the A's and allowed just two runs on four hits. He has a 3.40 ERA against Seattle in 14 career starts. Play on LOS ANGELES
|04-02-19||Brewers v. Reds +101||Top||4-3||Loss||-100||10 h 28 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI
The Reds came into this season with plenty of promise, which was part of the reason I took them on Opening Day. They won that first game, 5-3 over Pittsburgh, but haven't won since. That's misleading though as they've only played two games due to an off-day and a rainout. Last night saw them drop a 4-3 decision to the Brewers with Christian Yelich delivering a game winning double in the top of the ninth. Milwaukee is now 4-1, though every win has been close (three by 1 run), led by Yelich homering in every game but yesterday. I think the Brewers luck is about to run out here as it's difficult to keep winning in the manner than they have. The Reds are a better team this season and will not be the pushover they were a year ago. Brewers starter Chacin has a losing record against Cincy in his career (2-3 in 10 starts) and last year's two starts against them saw him allow five runs in only 9 1/3 innings. Chacin's first start of 2019 saw him give up multiple home runs and walks. Anthony DeSclafani will oppose him today and we feel he's the better starter in this matchup. This will be his first start of the year. Look for the Reds offense to "pick up" in this game as well. Play on CINCINNATI
|04-01-19||Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5||Top||0-8||Win||100||12 h 30 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on UNDER Cubs-Braves
Between these two, the Over is off to a 5-1 start to the season. The lone Under in came in last night's 5-1 loss by the Braves in Philadelphia. Once again on ESPN, we should see Atlanta involved in a low scoring game. The Cubs were unable to overcome a disastrous start from Yu Darvish Sunday and lost 11-10 in Texas. Despite scoring 28 runs in the three games in Arlington, the Cubs still lost the series. But now they return to National League play, which still involves the pitchers coming up to bat and scoring should subside accordingly. This works both ways as not only should the Cubs see their own scoring decline here in Atlanta, the pitching should improve. Kyle Hendricks was very good in 2018 and finished with a 1.52 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his last seven starts. The Under was 22-10-1 in all of his starts last year. Four career appearances against Atlanta have yielded a 2.33 ERA. Sean Newcomb will be on the mound for the Braves, looking to lead his team to its first win of the young season. The bullpen was more of a problem for Atlanta in Philly than were the starters, so a strong outing from Newcomb would go a long way here. Newcomb was stronger in the first half last year, including a quality effort against these Cubs. The Under is 6-2-1 the last nine times Newcomb has started a series opener. Play UNDER Chicago-Atlanta
|04-01-19||Mets v. Marlins UNDER 8||Top||7-3||Loss||-112||12 h 30 m||Show|
This is a 10* play UNDER on NY Mets-Miami
The Mets had a chance to sweep the Nationals yesterday, which would have been quite the statement to open the season. But a late rally ultimately fell short as they lost in walkoff fashion. Still, you have to like what you've seen from this club so far. Miami is going to struggle massively this season in a NL East where the other four teams are all thinking playoffs. That said, winning the last two games while holding the Rockies to just three runs is impressive. We look for this game to be low-scoring. These division foes ended last season with a three-game series against one another and the Mets scored a total of three runs. They also shut Miami out in two of the three games. One of those games was started by Steven Matz, who tossed six innings of three-hit ball. Matz posted a 1.53 ERA in three starts vs. Miami last season. Really, the only problem he had in a strong 2018 (3.97 ERA) was lack of run support. That's how he ended up with no wins in his final seven starts despite a 2.29 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Mets scored three runs or less 13 times for Matz last season. It's early, but the Marlins are batting just .216 so far. But starter Caleb Smith should keep them in this one as he had a 3.09 ERA in a couple of starts vs. NY last year. Play UNDER NY Mets-Miami
|03-31-19||Giants v. Padres -151||Top||1-3||Win||100||7 h 27 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on SAN DIEGO
The Padres lost 3-2 yesterday to the Giants. All five of the game's runs were scored in the sixth inning. But before that San Francisco had scored just one run in 23 innings and they didn't score again the rest of the game. So it would seen unrealistic for them to do much at the plate as this four-game series wraps up Sunday at Petco Park. The San Diego starting rotation is young, but loaded with talent and we've seen them keep the San Fran lineup in total check so far. Today it's Chris Paddack's turn as the 23-year old makes his first major league start. Paddack is one of the top prospects in the Padres organization and had himself an impressive Spring. His strikeout to walk rate is exactly what you want to see from a young starter. On the other hand, the Giants are going with an over the hill starter in Jeff Samardzija, who had a terrible 2018. Samardzija went 1-5 in 10 starts last season with a career worst 6.50 ERA. Bothered by shoulder issues, we're not sure how much he has left in the tank and the team is just 2-12 his last 14 starts overall. The Padres should bounce back from their first loss of the season rather easily here. Play on SAN DIEGO
|03-30-19||Braves v. Phillies OVER 9||Top||6-8||Win||100||8 h 54 m||Show|
This is a 10* play OVER Braves-Phillies
With the addition of Bryce Harper making expectations sky high, the Phillies figure to be a pretty "public" team in 2019. Even with Harper hitless, they still managed to crush the Braves Opening Day, winning 10-4. Him being intentionally walked did set up the pivotal at-bat of the game, that being a Rhys Hoskins' grand slam. Atlanta's starting rotation is in shambles to start the season with both Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman on the DL. This forces rookie Bryse Wilson into the starter's role for today and we look for him to struggle with the Phillies lineup, just as predecessor Julio Teheran did. At the big league level, Wilson has made just one start and two relief appearances. Make no mistake about it, he's only in this spot due to injuries. Philadelphia hit three home runs Thursday. Their offense figures to score plenty again here, but don't be surprised to see them give up some runs here too. Starter Pivetta had a pretty high ERA (4.80) last year and the Over is 6-1 the last seven times he's started the second game of a series. The Phillies had the worst defense in the league last year and that could account for some extra runs scored here too. Play OVER Atlanta-Philadelphia
|03-30-19||White Sox v. Royals -120||Top||6-8||Win||100||7 h 48 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on KC
We don't expect much from either of these teams in 2019, but someone has to win these games and in the case of Opening Day, it was the Royals getting the job done. They beat the White Sox 5-3, thanks to starter Brad Keller giving them seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. Chicago scored all three of its runs in the ninth inning and had nearly as many errors (3) as they did hits (4) in the game. Kansas City is a team built on speed, both on the basepaths and defensively. They aren't going to be good this year, but if they get the kind of starting pitching Keller gave them Thursday, then they can certainly beat an opponent like the White Sox. Jakob Junis will start here, looking to build off a strong finish to '18 where he won his final three starts and four of his last five. He allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his last 10 starts. Chicago's Lopez had a similar strong finish to the year, but he's backed by a very young lineup that is going to struggle to score runs here. Also, Lopez's numbers were much worse on the road in 2018. How about the fact Chicago is 16-42 following an off day, or 0 for their last 7 after giving up 5+ runs the last game? Play on KC
|03-29-19||Giants v. Padres -145||Top||1-4||Win||100||14 h 19 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on SAN DIEGO
Expectations are higher than normal for San Diego this year due to the surprise signing of Manny Machado. Just how high this Padres club can climb is up for debate, but they got 2019 off to a good start by shutting out the Giants yesterday. It was a 2-0 win. While Machado was hitless, heavily hyped rookie Fernando Tatis singled twice in his debut. There are some that feel Tatis will have the bigger impact this season. As for the Giants, look for them to have little impact in the National League West. They are about to embark on the same trip San Diego took the last couple years, that being a neccessary rebuild. Joey Lucchesi starts tonight for the Padres, looking to build off a season where he led the team with 130 strikeouts. Lucchesi looked good in the Spring and was 1-0 in two starts vs. the Giants last year. He'll face Derek Holland, whose ERA saw massive improvement in 2018, probably due to moving to the National League. But we don't expect a repeat of last year's 3.57 ERA nor do we expect much from the Giants offense after being shutout last night. Going back to the end of last year, San Diego has won four of five against San Fran. Play on SAN DIEGO
|03-28-19||Pirates v. Reds -108||Top||3-5||Win||100||5 h 15 m||Show|
This is a 10* play on CINCINNATI
The Reds have had a hard time with the Pirates the last couple seasons, losing 14 of the last 19 head to head matchups. But they've also not been a very good team for awhile now. That could change in 2019 where improvement is expected. Many have them escaping the NL Central basement for the first time in forever and if they do, it's likely at the Pirates' expense. Cincy does start the season a little short-handed with 2B Scooter Gennett on the DL. But that loss will be mitigated today by the pitching of starter Luis Castillo, who had an excellent finish to 2018. Over his final 11 starts, Castillo struck out 69 batters in 66 1/3 innings and posted a 2.44 ERA. In the month of September, he allowed only 4 earned runs in 33 innings. We don't think Pittsburgh is going to be very good this season and starter Taillon is just 4-4 with a 4.30 ERA in 12 career starts vs. the Reds. Good price on the home team today. Play on CINCINNATI
|10-02-18||Rockies v. Cubs OVER 7.5||Top||2-1||Loss||-100||13 h 14 m||Show|
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between the Rockies/Cubs.
Clearly these are two very competent pitchers. However, it’s been a crazy couple of days for both clubs and because of that, I don’t think these starters are going to be quite as focused as they normally are. Chicago lost a chance to host the NLD when it lost to Milwaukee 3-1 yesterday in a one-game tiebreaker for the CD title. The Rockies fell 5-2 to the Dodgers in the other divisional tiebreaker. Now Colorado travels across the country to fight the Cubs for the right to play Milwaukee, who hosts the NLDS starting Thursday. This play is based upon the overall “situation.” Expect a “slug-fest” Tuesday and play the OVER.
|10-01-18||Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 7||Top||2-5||Push||0||9 h 12 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between the Rockies/Dodgers.
Walker Buehler has a 1.70 ERA in his last 11 starts (one of those included a 12 strikeout performance in a win over Colorado on Sept. 19th.) Over five starts against the Rockies Buehler has a 2.61 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. The Rockies’ German Marquez is 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA in his last 12 starts and he’s 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts against the Dodgers. Play the UNDER.
|09-28-18||Dodgers v. Giants +1.5||3-1||Loss||-125||30 h 1 m||Show|
This is an 8* FIST-FIGHT on the Giants on the RUN-LINE.
We think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the Madison Bumgarner and the Giants on the RUN-LINE. The Dodgers hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu (6-3, 2.00 ERA) who has been “lights out” this season, but we think regression is imminent. He was 5-9 with a 3.97 ERA last year and the Giants and Bumgarner (6-6, 3.20) who has been almost untouchable at home by going 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA. We’re banking on this one being very competitive, decided late or in extra innings. Play on the GIANTS on the RUN-LINE.
|09-27-18||Rangers v. Mariners -175||2-0||Loss||-175||30 h 44 m||Show|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Seattle Mariners.
Ariel Jurado (4-5, 6.66 ERA) gets the call for the Rangers on Thursday for the Rangers and he for the most part has been a complete disaster this season. Note that the rookie is 2-4 with a 7.96 ERA on the road. The Mariners’ Marco Gonzalez (13-9, 4.12) and he’ll look to close out strong on what has to be viewed upon as a pretty decent overall campaign; note that the southpaw has been at his bet at home by going 5-3 with a 3.67 ERA. We’re banking on Gonzalez easily getting the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Play on the MARINERS.
|09-26-18||Braves v. Mets -153||0-3||Win||100||25 h 27 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.
Sean Newcomb (12-9, 4.04 ERA) started the year off strong, but he’s been steadily regressing for a while now and we think he’ll struggle again here. He was most recently shelled for five runs over three innings in a loss to the Nationals. deGrom (9-9, 1.77) is one of only two pitchers in the league with a sub 2.00 ERA. Note that he owns a tiny 1.56 ERA at home as well. Additionally note that NY is 15-7 in its last 22 as a home fav in the -150 to -175 range. Play on the METS.
|09-25-18||Braves v. Mets -145||7-3||Loss||-145||28 h 49 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.
We’re not expecting an upset here. The Braves hand the ball to Touki Toussaint (2-1, 4.30 ERA) and he’s for the most part struggled in the big leagues. Note that he owns a 5.40 ERA in all “night” contests. The Mets go with Noah Syndergaard (12-4, 3.36) who continues to excel down the stretch, coming in off back-to-back strong outings. Thor will now look to close out strong, note that he’s 7-1 with a 3.35 ERA at home. We’re banking on Syndergaard coming in focused and to easily get the better of his “on again, off again” counterpart. Lay the price, play on the METS.
|09-24-18||A's v. Mariners -120||7-3||Loss||-120||31 h 36 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Mariners.
We think James Paxton is the correct call at home on Monday night. The A’s turn to Brett Anderson (4-5, 3.96 ERA) who for the most part has been extremely impressive over the second half of the season, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play in all “night” contests, going just 3-4 with a 4.95 ERA. Paxton (11-6, 3.83) returns from a stint on the DL from the flu. Paxton has been better on the road than at home this year, but no matter where he’s been, he’s been at his best in all “night” contests, coming in with with an impressive 9-4, 2.76 ERA record. We like Paxton at home, great value. Play on the MARINERS.
UPDATE: Anderson is now out and Daniel Mengden is now in. This play is STILL ACTIVE. Mengden is 7-6 with a 4.00 ERA and he’s looked good in long relief lately. But starting on the road in this difficult venue is a difficult task on short notice and we think he’ll stumble. Note that he owns a poor 5.04 ERA on the road. Play on the M’s.
|09-23-18||Giants v. Cardinals -178||2-9||Win||100||21 h 51 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals.
The visitors go with Andrew Suarez (7-11, 4.24 ERA) who has been more “miss” than “hit” this year. The rookie has been trading good starts with bad ones of late. Note that while Suarez is 4-5 with a 3.18 ERA at home, he’s just 3-6 with a 5.38 ERA on the road. The Cards’ Miles Mikolas (16-4, 3.01) looks to put the finishing touches on a masterful debut campaign. Note that he’s been particularly dominant at home with a 7-4, 2.23 ERA to this pint. No upsets here, we look for Mikolas to easily get the better of his “gas can” counterpart. Lay the price, play on the CARDINALS.
|09-22-18||Phillies v. Braves -140||3-5||Win||100||18 h 2 m||Show|
This is an 8 ASSASSIN on the Atlanta Braves.
Both pitchers have been great overall this year, but Phillies’ starter Jake Arrieta has faltered some down the stretch. Mike Foltynewicz hasn’t been perfect this year but he’s been fantastic in all “day” contests this year by going 3-2 with a 2.18 ERA. Arrieta is just 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA and only 2-4 with a 4.60 ERA in all “day” contests. Great price on the home side here, play on the BRAVES.
|09-21-18||Cubs -165 v. White Sox||4-10||Loss||-165||24 h 19 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs.
Whenever these cross-town rivals get together it’s an important match-up. We think Jose Quintana comes in focused on the task at hand and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Quintana (13-10, 3.95 ERA) gave up two runs while striking out seven over five innings in an unfortunate loss to Cincinnati on Sunday. It was his sixth straight outing in which he’s given up two or fewer earned runs. Note that Quintana owns a very respectable 3.45 ERA on the road as well. The home side goes with Reynaldo Lopez (6-9, 4.05) who has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but note that he does still come in with a pedestrian 2-3, 4.01 ERA at home. Lopez has been decent, but Quintana comes in on top form. We look for the CUBS to ride the red hot Quintana to another relatively simple victory. Lay the price.
|09-20-18||Angels v. A's -139||3-21||Win||100||23 h 5 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Oakland A’s.
The visitors go with Matt Shoemaker (2-1, 3.98 ERA) comes in off a poor outing against the Mariners; note that he has a poor 4.96 ERA in all “day” contests. The home side goes with Edwin Jackson (5-3, 3.17) who has been trading good starts with poor ones of late. Overall though Jackson has been as solid as the A’s could have possibly hoped for (note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.12 ERA at home as well.) We’re banking on Jackson and the hard-hitting home side finding a way to get the job done here against the “on again, off again” Shoemaker. Play on the ATHLETICS.
|09-19-18||Rockies v. Dodgers -200||2-5||Win||100||29 h 15 m||Show|
This is a 6* play on the LA Dodgers.
We’re not expecting any upsets here. The Rockies’ Tyler Anderson (6-9, 4.82 ERA) has for the most part been a disaster this year. Last season he was 6-6 with a 4.81 ERA. Note that Anderson has been horrible on the road this year as evidenced by his ballooned 5.28 ERA. The home side goes with Walker Buehler (7-5, 2.88) who went eight shutout innings against the Cards on Friday, going on to strike out nine in the dominant effort. Over 118.2 innings the right-hander now has 131 strikeouts; note as well that he’s been at his best at home with a 2.12 ERA so far. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DODGERS.
|09-18-18||Royals v. Pirates -195||1-2||Win||100||27 h 10 m||Show|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Pirates.
No upsets here as we look for the red hot Jameson Taillon to easily get the better of the “gas can” Eric Skoglund. Skoglund (1-5, 6.19 ERA) comes in off a decent outing against the White Sox, but we expect him to struggle in this difficult National League venue. Note that he’s a terrible 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA on the road. Taillon on the other hand is 13-9 with a 3.37 ERA, including 5-4 with a 3.56 ERA at home. Lay the price with confidence, play on the PIRATES.
|09-17-18||Cubs v. Diamondbacks -128||5-1||Loss||-128||29 h 36 m||Show|
This is an 8* BLOOD-BATH on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Kyle Hendricks has been better over the second half than in the first, but Patrick Corbin has been throwing an elite level since Day 1. Corbin has been at his best at home as well with a 7-3, 2.92 ERA. We love Corbin in this spot and we feel/believe that this line could/should in fact be a lot larger. Lay the short price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS.
|09-16-18||Mets +178 v. Red Sox||3-4||Loss||-100||22 h 30 m||Show|
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.
This has already been a surprisingly competitive series and while these pitchers are obviously very evenly matched, we think that Jacob deGrom offers great value in the upset role. deGrom (8-9, 1.71 ERA) has the ability to go inning with inning with any pitcher on the planet right now. And that most definitely swings the value in favor of the underdog in our opinion. Chris Sale (12-4, 1.96 ERA) gets the nod for the home side. Sale’s been fantastic, but this is his first official start since August 12th. We think the rust that Sale will undoubtedly have at the start of this one is all the advantage that deGrom needs right now. Play on the METS.
|09-15-18||Reds v. Cubs -203||0-1||Win||100||24 h 51 m||Show|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Cubs.
No upsets here as we fully expect the veteran Lester to come in focused on the task at hand and to get the better of his erratic counterpart. Cincinnati goes with Cody Reed (0-2, 5.08 ERA) and he’s so far looked shaky in his limited time in the majors. Note that Reed is 0-1 with a 6.08 ERA on the road. Lester (15-6, 3.57) left his last start with lower back tightness after allowing three runs and striking out seven over six innings. He’s been cleared to go here and he comes in sporting the very respectable ERA along with a 1.34 WHIP, while going 8-2 with a 3.19 ERA in all “day” contests. We love Lester to blow the doors off Reed, who we expect to get the hook early. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CUBS.
|09-14-18||Marlins v. Phillies OVER 8||Top||2-14||Win||100||12 h 55 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the OVER Marlins/Phillies.
These teams played a double-header yesterday and each game fell UNDER the number. However with these two erratic starters going head-to-head on Friday, we think this total will easily blast past the posted number. The Marlins’ Wei-Yin Chen (6-10, 4.72 ERA) had a decent run through August, but overall the southpaw has struggled, especially on the road where he’s a terrible 1-7 with a 9.13 ERA. The home side goes with Zach Eflin (9-7, 4.42) who has lost three in a row and who has given up at least four runs in five of his last five trips to the hill, posting a horrendous 7.72 ERA, 2.01 WHIP and 21:11 K:BB over that stretch. Note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in 21 of its last 32 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER in seven of its last 11 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Play the OVER.
|09-13-18||Marlins v. Mets -177||3-4||Win||100||5 h 8 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.
We’re not expecting any sort of an upset here tonight. The Fish go with Sandy Alcantara, who in his first star for the Marlins, shut down the Phillies over seven scoreless for the victory on Wednesday. He’d hit three batters though and regression seems imminent to us in this difficult road venue. The home side goes with Stephen Matz (5-11, 4.17) who has been hit or miss this season. He most recently earned a win over San Francisco, striking out 11 over seven innings. Matz has turned things around of late after a poor start to the 2018 campaign, one which was marred by injury. Matz appears to hitting his stride now though and we think he’ll easily get the better of the inconsistent Alcantara. Lay the price, play on the METS.
|09-12-18||White Sox -136 v. Royals||Top||4-2||Win||100||29 h 16 m||Show|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Chicago White Sox.
We think Carlos Rodon will easily out-duel the inconsistent Erik Skoglund on Wednesday night. Rodon (6-5, 3.11 ERA) most recently gave up four runs with four strikeouts over five innings in a loss to the Angels on Friday. Despite that though Rodon still owns the very respectable ERA and an elite 1.08 WHIP while holding the opposition to a tiny .188 average. Skoglund (1-5, 6.45) returns to the rotation after appearing out of the bullpen last week for the first time since coming off the 60-day DL. He’s been a complete disaster overall this season, especially at home where he’s just 1-3 with a 6.01 ERA. Bank on Rodon taking advantage. Lay the price, play on the WHITE SOX.
|09-11-18||Braves -132 v. Giants||4-1||Win||100||13 h 51 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.
The Braves came out on top 4-1 last night and we think they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors go with Mike Foltynewicz (10-9, 2.75 ERA) who comes in off consecutive strong performances against the Marlins and the Cubs. The hard-throwing right-hander has come into his own in his fifth year in the majors and note that he’s been filthy on the road with a 2.51 ERA record. The home side goes with Andrew Suarez (6-10, 4.33) who has been hit-or-miss over the last month. The rookie has shown flashes of brilliance and the future is clearly bright for Suarez, but note that he’s still just 3-6 with a 4.70 ERA in all “night” contests. Additionally note that the Braves are 35-21 (+8.1 units) this season against clubs with losing records, while the Giants are just 40-50 (-2.3 units) against teams with winning records. Lay the price, play on the BRAVES.
|09-10-18||Dodgers -159 v. Reds||6-10||Loss||-159||25 h 22 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers.
We look for Alex Wood and the opportunistic visiting side to come in focused on the task at hand and to leave the Monday night a winner. Wood (8-6, 3.37 ERA) who has been super of late, giving up just seven earned runs over his previous six outings combined; note as well that he’s 5-3 with a tiny 3.12 ERA on the road. The Reds go with Cody Reed (0-2, 4.81) who has been hit or miss this year in the big leagues (more “miss” than “hit” though.) While he’s been better at home than on the road, note that he’s still own a brutal 6.08 ERA in all “night” contests. Look for Wood and the surging DODGERS to deliver the goods on Monday night. Lay the price.
|09-09-18||Indians -162 v. Blue Jays||2-6||Loss||-162||6 h 22 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians.
The Tribe came out on top of a high-scoring 9-8 affair yesterday and we expect the hard-hitting visiting side to find a way to get the job done here as well with the superior starter on the mound. Cleveland goes with Mike Clevinger (11-7, 3.11 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out ten in a win over KC on Tuesday. Clevinger comes in on top form, having won seven straight. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays as well today is that he own a very sharp 2.68 ERA on the road this season. The home side is forced to turn to Thomas Pannone (1-1, 4.58) who after looking pretty good in his MLB debut against the Orioles, would take a major step back in his second against Baltimore as well most recently, allowing seven runs off nine hits with not strikeouts over three innings. We love Clevinger in this matchup and because of that, we have no issues at all in laying the price. Play on the INDIANS.
|09-08-18||Phillies v. Mets -141||5-10||Win||100||13 h 11 m||Show|
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Mets.
The Phillies’ Zach Eflin (9-6, 4.05 ERA) has been scuffling for a while now and we think he’s in well over his head in this matchup. Eflin most recently gave up four runs off seven hits over five innings in a setback to Chicago on Saturday. Since the All-Star Game Eflin has a poor 5.53 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 35:23 K:BB over 42.1 innings of work. The Mets’ Noah Syndergaard (10-3, 3.33) also got smashed by the Cubs in his most recent outing, allowing four runs while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision on Monday. Syndergaard has also been scuffling of late, but not nearly as badly as Eflin; also note that he’s 6-1 with a 3.14 ERA at home. Look for Eflin to continue his slide down the proverbial crapper and for the METS to take full advantage.
|09-07-18||Braves v. Diamondbacks -129||3-5||Win||100||30 h 26 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
We think the home field advantage turns out to be the difference here. The visitors go with Kevin Gausman (9-9, 3.78 ERA) who comes in off consecutive strong outings. Note though that it was against light-weights Miami and Pittsburgh. Clearly Arizona on the road is an entirely different animal. The home side goes with Patrick Corbin (10-5, 3.06) who most recently went five scoreless against the Dodgers on Saturday. Corbin had seven strikeouts in the win and note that he’s been very consistent at home this year with a 6-3, 3.25 ERA so far. We think Gausman finally comes back down to Earth here in this difficult road venue. Play on the DIAMONDBACKS.
|09-05-18||Reds v. Pirates -210||2-3||Win||100||28 h 14 m||Show|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Pirates.
No upsets here, as we expect the red hot Jameson Taillon to easily out duel his Homer Bailey. Taillon (11-9, 3.45 ER) who most recently got the better of the Braves on Friday by allowing just two runs over seven innings, also going on to strikeout seven. Taillon has now posted seven straight quality efforts as well and a 2.64 ERA over that stretch. Bailey (1-13, 6.13) comes in off another disastrous outing against the Cardinals on Friday, allowing seven runs off nine hits over five innings. Note that Bailey is just 1-9 with a 6.92 ERA in all “night” contests this year. There’s no way that Bailey suddenly “flips a switch” here. Taillon is the correct call here. Play on the PIRATES.
|09-04-18||Orioles v. Mariners -190||5-3||Loss||-190||32 h 16 m||Show|
This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the Seattle Mariners.
No upsets here. One of these starters has been a disaster since Day 1, while the other is getting strong as the season comes to a close. The visitors hand the ball to the beleaguered Alex Cobb (4-15, 5.11 ERA) who gave up five runs off eight hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Jays on Wednesday. The struggling right-hander was fortunate as seven of the eight hits he gave up went for extra-bases, meaning that it in fact it could have been a lot worse (note that Cobb is just 4-8 with a 4.52 ERA on the road.) Wade LeBlanc (8-3, 3.71) gets the nod for the home side and he gave up three hits and three walks while striking out four over seven scoreless innings in a victory over Oakland on Thursday. Note that LeBlanc has been sharp at home with a 6-2, 3.95 ERA. We love LeBlanc to continue his sharp play at home and we have no issues at all in laying this price. Play on the MARINERS.
|09-03-18||Cardinals v. Nationals -165||3-4||Win||100||22 h 22 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Nationals.
Jack Flaherty’s been great, but we think that Max Scherzer is the correct call here. Flaherty (8-6, 2.87 ERA) who has been called up from Triple A to make this difficult spot start. Scherzer (16-6, 2.22) received an extra days rest here, which will clearly only benefit the veteran at this point of the season. Note that he’s 8-3 with a 2.37 ERA at home. We think Flaherty is the one getting far too much respect here. No upset, lay the price, pay on the NATIONALS.
|09-02-18||Mariners v. A's -145||2-8||Win||100||26 h 8 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Oakland A’s.
Neither starter instills much confidence, but we think that Edwin Jackson will utilize friendly confines and get the better of the Mariners Felix Hernandez. The King (8-12, 5.49 ERA) has struggled this year, especially on the road with a 4-7, 6.95 ERA. Jackson (4-3, 3.03) has been fantastic this year and we think the vet carries it over in this favorable situation; note that he’s 3-2 with a 2.88 ERA at home. Look for Hernandez to get the hook early and for Jackson to cruise to victory in front of the home town crowd; play the price, play on the A’S.
|09-01-18||Mets v. Giants -130||2-1||Loss||-130||19 h 55 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the San Francisco Giants.
We think this line could easily be a lot larger. The Mets go with Stephen Matz (5-11, 4.36 ERA), who comes in off a decent start against Washington but who has struggled overall this year; note that he’s just 4-5 with a 4.53 ERA on the road. The Giants go with Derek Holland (7-8, 3.65) who gave up one run over 6.1 innings while striking out four in a win over the Rangers on Sunday. Over his last three starts the veteran has been on fire, giving up just two runs spanning 16 innings. Note that Holland is 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA at home as well. This one has blowout written all over, lay the price on the GIANTS.
|08-31-18||Reds v. Cardinals -202||5-12||Win||100||12 h 37 m||Show|
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the St. Louis Cardinals.
No upsets here. The Reds send Homer Bailey (1-12, 6.17 ERA) to the hill. Bailey’s disastrous season continues and with no end in sight, we simply can’t see the struggling veteran suddenly “flipping a switch” here. Austin Gomber (4-0, 2.79) will look to take advantage though, he most recently allowed two runs (just one earned) off five hits while stricken gout six over six innings in a win over the Rockies on Sunday. Over 48.1 innings he now has a solid 2.79 ERA and note that he’s 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA at home. Lay the price with confidence, play on the CARDINALS.
|08-30-18||Twins v. Indians -198||3-5||Win||100||22 h 1 m||Show|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians.
Jake Odorizzi (5-8, 4.38 ERA) has been serviceable for the Twins this year, but Mike Clevinger (9-7, 3.30) has exceeded expectations for the Tribe. No upsets in this one in our opinion, as we look for Clevinger to easily get the better of his inconsistent counterpart here. Odorizzi comes in off a couple of poor outings and note that he’s just 1-4 with a 4.55 ERA on the road. Clevinger comes in off a no-decision to KC on Friday despite striking out eight and giving up three runs over seven innings. Over 26 total starts this year he’s posted a quality effort in 16 of them and note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA over his last five trips to the hill. Clevinger is holding his opponents to a respectable .239 average and we think he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on the INDIANS.
|08-29-18||Pirates v. Cardinals -175||2-0||Loss||-175||30 h 40 m||Show|
This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the St. Louis Cardinals.
Both starters have been excellent. So we’re calling them a “wash” in this one. The difference is in the overwhelming trends working in favor of the home side and they make this a price in which we have no issues at all in laying. As note that Pittsburgh is a disturbingly poor 2-10 in its last 12 national league night road contests in which it’s an underdog in the +150 to +200 range. Look for Mikolas to continue his hot play at home and lay the price with confidence; play on the CARDINALS.
|08-29-18||A's v. Astros -175||4-5||Win||100||24 h 36 m||Show|
This is a 7* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros (2:10 EST).
No upsets here, as we look for Dallas Keuchel to come in focused and get the better of Trevor Cahill. Cahill (5-3, 3.44 ERA) has been fantastic overall for the A’s, but he comes in off a loss and note that while he’s 4-0 with a minuscule 0.85 ERA at home, note that he’s a terrible 1-3 with a 6.92 ERA on the road. Keuchel (10-10, 3.54) comes in off a strong outing against the Angels on Friday and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. Note as well that Keuchel owns a sharp 3.29 ERA at home this year. We like Keuchel to continue his strong play at home and we expect Cahill to once again struggle on the road. Lay the price, play on the ASTROS.
|08-28-18||A's v. Astros -170||Top||4-3||Loss||-170||29 h 60 m||Show|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Houston Astros.
Edwin Jackson got out to an unreal start for the A’s, but he’s since slowed down considerably. Astros starter Charlie Morton is also putting together an unbelievable season, but the hard-throwing right-hander isn’t slowing down at all, in fact he appears to be getting even stronger as the season has worn on. Jackson (4-3, 2.97 ERA) gave up four runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the Rangers on Wednesday. Morton (13-3, 3.05) gave up four and struck out four in a no-decision to Oakland last Friday. Morton though looks poised for a bounce back here throwing at home where he’s 8-2 with a 3.00 ERA. Lay the price with confidence on the “better” pitcher. Play on the ASTROS.
|08-28-18||Dodgers -190 v. Rangers||8-4||Win||100||29 h 56 m||Show|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers.
No upsets in this one, as we look for Walker Buehler to easily get the better of his still untested counterpart tonight. Buehler (6-4, 2.96 ERA) ave up three hits while striking out nine over seven scoreless in an unfortunate no-decision to St. Louis on Wednesday. He’d go on to post 22 called strikes and 11 swinging strikes on 104 pitches. Note that Buehler is 3-1 with a 3.12 ERA on the road as well. Ariel Jurado (2-3, 6.40) gets the nod for the home side and he most recently gave up four runs off ten hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to the A’s on Tuesday. Over his last three starts he’s given up at least four runs and has a poor 5:5 K:BB over 16.2 frames in that span. No need to overthink this one, lay the price with confidence on the DODGERS.
|08-27-18||White Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8||6-2||Push||0||26 h 18 m||Show|
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER between the White Sox and Yanks.
We think this one has “pitchers duel” written all over it. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Rodon (5-3, 2.71) is white hot for the White Sox with a 1.77 ERA and 0.94 WHIP while posting eight straight quality starts. Note that Rodon owns a sharp 2.31 ERA in all “night” games. The Yanks go with Masahiro Tanaka (9-4, 3.90) who gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision to Miami on Tuesday. Tanaka comes in on top form as well with a 10:1 K:BB over his last 12 innings of work. Note that Tanaka is 7-3 with a 3.59 ERA in all “night” contests. Expect these two quality starters to battle deep and for this total to fall UNDER once it’s all said and done.
|08-26-18||Mariners v. Diamondbacks -185||2-5||Win||100||22 h 54 m||Show|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
We’re not expecting any upsets here. Mike Leake (8-7, 3.90 ERA) returns from the DL for the Mariners after his last start was skipped over due to an illness. Leake has been solid overall this year, but the combination of the time off from sickness and the fact that he’s a just 4-5 with a 4.96 ERA in all night games makes Zack Greinke well worth the price of admission in this one. Greinke (12-8, 3.06) gave up three runs in a no-decision over six innings to the Padres on Sunday. Greinke has been dominant at home though with a 5-3, 2.14 ERA. We expect Greinke to continue his dazzling play at home and we believe Leake will get rocked early and often. Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS.
|08-25-18||Astros -178 v. Angels||8-3||Win||100||29 h 53 m||Show|
This is a 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Astros.
Jamie Barria has been solid for the Angels, but Justin Verlander continues to defy the odds and he seems to be getting stronger as the season continues. We think Barria is in over his head here. Barria (8-7, 3.41 ERA) earned a no-decision against the Rangers on Sunday after giving up one run over five innings. As mentioned above, Barria’s been great, but Verlander (12-8, 2.65) has been exceptional. Particularly of late. Note that Verlander comes in off back-to-back strong outings and he’s now 10-2 with a 2.09 ERA on the road. Look for HOUSTON to find a way to get the job done in this favorable matchup and lay the price.
|08-25-18||Phillies -121 v. Blue Jays||Top||6-8||Loss||-121||24 h 1 m||Show|
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Philadelphia Phillies.
Nick Pivetta (7-10, 4.66 ERA) struggled against the Mets in his last start, but previous to that he looked sharp by giving up just three runs over 18 innings. Pivetta though has been at his best on the road with a 3-3, 3.31 ERA this season. The home side goes with the erratic Aaron Sanchez (3-5, 4.52) who has been transitioned back to the starting rotation after a stint in the minors on re-hab assignment. Note that he’s 0-2 with a 4.19 ERA at home so far this year and just 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA in all “day” contests. Sanchez will be on a count and we like Pivetta and the PHILLIES to step up and take advantage.
|08-24-18||Astros -134 v. Angels||9-3||Win||100||32 h 52 m||Show|
This is a 9* ASSASSIN on the Houston Astros (10:05 EST).
This is an interesting match-up, as each starting pitcher enters off a dud after an extended stretch of excellence. We think it favors Dallas Keuchel and Houston though. Keuchel (9-10, 3.59) looked terrible against the A’s in his last start, but note that he’s a very respectable 6-5 with a 3.12 ERA on the road this season. The home side hands the ball to Andrew Heaney (7-7, 4.11) who in fact comes in off back to back poor outings. Heaney’s been sharp overall, especially at home but we think it’s clear that he’s now “running out of gas” at this point of the season. Look for Keuchel and the ASTROS to take advantage.
|08-24-18||Mariners v. Diamondbacks -152||Top||6-3||Loss||-152||31 h 28 m||Show|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST).
We think that Zack Godley and the hard-hitting home side are going to easily take care of business in this favorable inter-league contest. The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez (0-2, 5.49 ERA) who is back in the rotation out of necessity. In his first start back he’d predictably get rocked by the Astros; note that he already a horrible 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA on the road. Godley (13-6, 4.44) hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been much better over the last two months after a disastrous start. Godley has to be feeling confident here as he’s 6-2 with a 3.12 ERA at home this season. We believe Ramirez takes another step back under the National League format and in this difficult venue. All things considered, a great price; play on the DIAMONDBACKS.
|08-24-18||Nationals -144 v. Mets||0-3||Loss||-144||29 h 59 m||Show|
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on the Washington Nationals (7:10 EST).
While he’s struggled of late, we think that Gio Gonzalez will have more than enough to take care of Mets’ erratic starter Jason Vargas. Gonzalez (7-10, 4.51 ERA) comes in off a couple of shaky outings, but he has the track record and pedigree to finish up the regular season strong and get back on track (or at the very least, get the better of Vargas today.) Vargas (3-8, 7.67) has been a disaster so far for New York, especially at home where he’s 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA. Look for the NATIONALS to take full advantage of this favorable matchup.
|08-23-18||A's -149 v. Twins||4-6||Loss||-149||29 h 58 m||Show|
This is an 8* TOP PLAY on the Oakland Athletics.
This is a monster mismatch on the mound and we feel that Trevor Cahill could/should easily be a much larger favorite in this one. Cahill (5-2, 3.12) went seven scoreless against the Astros on Saturday. He now has a 1.04 WHIP and 85 strikeouts over 86.2 innings. His counterpart is Kohl Steward (0-1, 7.71), who was crushed in his first major league outing, then sent back down to the minors for two weeks, only to be called up again to the big leagues for this start. While the sky could be the limit for Stewart, in our opinion he’s completely over-matched here. Play on the ATHLETICS.
|08-22-18||Angels v. Diamondbacks -179||1-5||Win||100||32 h 45 m||Show|
This is a 9* ASSASSIN on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
We think Clay Buchholz continues his steady season with an easy victory over Adrisamer Despaigne and the visiting LA Angels on Wednesday night. Despaigne (2-1, 6.29 ERA) gave up five runs off seven hits in a loss to the Rangers in his Angels debut over the weekend. Buchholz (6-2, 2.47) went a complete game against the Friars in his last start, given yup one run off five hits with six strikeouts and zero walks. Over five second trips to the hill Buchholz has posted a 2.36 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 34.1 innings of work. No upsets here as we expect Despaigne to take another step back in this difficult National League venue. Lay the price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS.
|08-22-18||Giants v. Mets -162||Top||3-5||Win||100||29 h 16 m||Show|
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New York Mets.
Noah Syndergaard hasn’t been perfect this season and he’s coming off a couple of “ho-hum” outings, but we still think he’ll have more than enough to get the better of Casey Kelly (0-1, 1.69 ERA) and in his first start in the big leagues since 2006 over the weekend he’d give up one run over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Reds. Syndergaard (8-3, 3.40) has faced some stiff competition of late, most recently throwing opposite Aaron Nola, giving up four runs with five strikeouts over six innings in the eventual setback to the Phillies. As mentioned off the top, he hasn’t been perfect but note that he’s still 5-1 with a 3.18 ERA at home this season. We think Syndergaard comes in focused and finds a way to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price, play on the METS.
|08-22-18||Phillies v. Nationals OVER 8.5||7-8||Win||100||29 h 11 m||Show|
This is an 8* BIG TIGER on the OVER Phillies/Nationals.
Zach Eflin and Stephen Strasburg are two competent hurlers. However Eflin returns after a short stint in the minors, while Strasburg returns after a month off from injury. and we think that’s going to lead to a higher-scoring shootout. Eflin (9-4, 3.70 ERA) looked good in his final start before going to the minors for one start and coming back up. The back and forth though wears him out here in our opinion, setting him up for a sub-par effort in the Nation’s capitals. Strasburg (6-7, 3.90) has been out for over a month with a neck related issue. He’s been decent, but not spectacular this year, especially at home with a poor 2-5, 5.21 ERA. This one sets up fantastically for a higher scoring OVER.
|08-21-18||Angels v. Diamondbacks -170||4-5||Win||100||31 h 7 m||Show|
This is a 6* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Felix Pena has been pretty good for the Angels this year, but we think he’s going to stumble against the superior opponent and in this tough ballpark. Pena (1-3, 4.35 ERA) comes in off arguably his best start of the year as well in a victory over the Padres on Wednesday, although he received a no-decision after riving up one run over six innings. Note as well that he’s walked three or more batters four times in his last six trips to the mound. Pena’s peripherals point to regression here. Arizona hands the ball to Patrick Corbin (10-4, 3.18) gave up three runs off six hits with no walk over seven innings in a victory over Texas on Tuesday, also striking out seven. The southpaw has now posted at least seven strikeouts in five straight trips to the hill. Corbin has also been rock solid at home with a 6-3, 3.27 ERA as well. We expect Corbin to easily out duel Pena; lay the price, play on the DIAMONDBACKS.
|08-20-18||Indians -100 v. Red Sox||Top||5-4||Win||100||29 h 31 m||Show|
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Cleveland Indians.
We like Corey Kluber to get the better of Rick Porcello in this one. Kluber (15-6, 2.68 ERA) seven seven innings and posted seven strikeouts in a victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. The hard-throwing right-hander would allow just one opponent past first base and he needed just 96 pitches to get through the performance. Note that Kluber is 7-3 with a 3.07 ERA on the road. Porcello (15-5, 4.04) comes in off a strong victory as well over the Phillies on Tuesday, giving up one run over seven innings. Porcello has been shaky of late though and note that he owns the poor 4.89 ERA at home. This is a head-line match-up on Monday night and we expect Kluber to take center stage. Play on the INDIANS.
|08-19-18||Mets v. Phillies -180||8-2||Loss||-180||26 h 18 m||Show|
This is a 6* play on the Philadelphia Phillies.
Nick Pivetta has been steady over the last month and a half and we think that he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his erratic counterpart. The visitors hand the ball to Jason Vargas (2-8, 8.10 ERA) who for the most part has been terrible this year. Note that he’s just 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA at home. Pivetta (7-9, 4.37) most recently gave up one run over six innings in a no decision to the Red Sox. He’s now thrown three straight quality outings, giving up just three runs over 18 innings. We love Pivetta in this home match-up; lay the price, play on the PHILLIES.
|08-19-18||Diamondbacks -183 v. Padres||4-3||Win||100||23 h 24 m||Show|
This is a 6* play on the Arizona Diamondbacks.
It’s a monumental mismatch on the mound and we’re not expecting any upsets. The visitors go with Zack Greinke (12-8, 3.00 ERA) who gave up four runs over seven innings in a loss to Texas on Monday. Greinke though had posted eight straight starts in which he’d given up two runs or fewer, so we’re not reading too much into one sub-par effort. Note that he’s been decent on the road with the 7-5, 3.50 ERA record. The home side goes with Brett Kennedy (0-2, 11.00) who most recently gave up five runs over five innings to the Angels on Tuesday. Kennedy’s been a disaster in the big leagues, yielding 11 runs off 20 hits over nine innings. Greinke’s been a lot better in front of the home town crowd than on the road, but he benefits from the pitcher friendly park and in facing off against a confirmed “gas can.” Lay the price with confidence, play on the DIAMONDBACKS.
|08-19-18||Astros -141 v. A's||9-4||Win||100||23 h 19 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros.
We like the visitors to come out on top of this one. The Astros hand the ball to ace Justin Verlander (11-8, 2.52 ERA) who comes in off a loss against the Rockies on Tuesday, given gnu two runs over six innings, walking none and striking out 11. Note that Verlander is 9-2 with a 1.74 ERA on the road this year. The home side goes with Sean Manaea (11-8, 3.44) who went 2.2 innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing three runs and five hits with three walks and one strikeout. Manaea’s been sharp overall this year, but this latest performance was a big step-back in our eyes. Advantage Verlander, who we expect to continue his dominant run away from friendly confines. Play on the ASTROS.
|08-19-18||Royals v. White Sox -143||6-7||Win||100||21 h 24 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Chicago White Sox.
We think the home side will find a way to get the job done here in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Heath Fillmyer (1-1, 3.61 ERA) who gave up four runs off five hits against the Jays on Tuesday, striking out three and walking five. Note that he owns a horrible 24:22 K:BB over 42.1 innings of work and he’s been poor on the road with a 5.01 ERA to this point. The home side goes with Reynaldo Lopez (4-9, 4.40) who gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to Detroit on Monday. For the most part Lopez has struggled this year as well, but he’s been decent at home with a 3.53 ERA so far. We like Lopez to get the better of Fillmyer; lay the price, play on the WHITE SOX.
|08-19-18||Giants v. Reds -106||4-11||Win||100||20 h 25 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Reds.
We think the home side will find a way to get the job done in this one. The home side goes with Andrew Suarez (4-8, 4.40 ERA) who went six scoreless in an no-decision to the Dodgers on Tuesday. Note though that Suarez though has struck out five or less in seven straight while posting a poor 28:14 K:BB over 38.2 innings in the span. The home side counters with Luis Castillo (6-10, 5.04) who comes in off an outing to forget against Arizona on Sunday, allowing five runs. Castillo has struggled for the most part this year, but note that the second year pro has been at his best at home with a very respectable 3.54 ERA. We think the Giants’ rookie takes another step back. Play on the REDS.
|08-18-18||Dodgers -132 v. Mariners||Top||4-5||Loss||-132||13 h 40 m||Show|
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the LA Dodgers.
The Dodgers hammered the Mariners 11-1 last night and while Seattle would like to atone for that shoddy effort, this is a match-up on the mound which is not in its favor at all. We think LA carries over its offensive momentum and we look for veteran Rich Hill to easily get the better of Erasmo Ramirez. Ramirez (0-2, 6.75 ERA) works his way back from injury, but overall this season he’s struggled. Last year he was 5-6 with a 4.39 ERA. Hill (5-4, 3.57) continues to gain momentum as the season wares on, off a couple of strong outings, he’s now posted a 1.40 ERA over his last 30 innings of work. Note as well that he’s 7-0 with a 3.47 ERA on the road. No revenge here as Hill outlasts Ramirez and the visiting DODGERS get it done.
|08-17-18||Dodgers -127 v. Mariners||11-1||Win||100||31 h 26 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the LA Dodgers.
Walker Buehler (5-4, 3.32 ERA) comes in off back-to-back strong outings for LA and he now owns a sharp 1.06 WHIP and 79:16 K:BB over 74.1 innings of work. Also note that Buehler owns an elite 2.31 ERA in all “night” games this season. The home side goes with Wade LeBlanc (7-2, 3.80) who gave up one run over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to Texas on Monday. Previous to that he’d been rocked for seven runs off ten hits over 4.1 frames in a loss to the Astros. LeBlanc has been decent this year, but we think Buehler carries over his recent momentum; great value, play on the DODGERS.
|08-17-18||Cubs -125 v. Pirates||1-0||Win||100||31 h 21 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Cubs.
We had a play on the Cubs yesterday and we’re back on them again here. The visitors hand the ball to Cole Hamels (7-9, 4.22 ERA) gave up one run over seven innings while striking out nine and walking one in an unfortunate no-decision to the Nationals on Sunday. Over his first 18 innings for his new club Hamels has allowed just two earned runs. The home side goes with Trevor Williams (10-8, 3.66) who went seven scoreless in a victory over San Francisco on Saturday. Williams has been on point of late, having posted four scoreless efforts out of his last five trips to the hill. Note though that the Pirates are just 3-11 in their last 14 at home underdog in the +105 to +135 range. We like Hamels to get the better of Williams and we look for the CUBS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Chicago.
|08-17-18||Astros -130 v. A's||3-4||Loss||-130||31 h 21 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Houston Astros.
We think the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying what we feel to be a very reasonable price all things considered. The visitors go with Charlie Morton (12-3, 2.88 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits with three walks while striking out eight over seven innings in a 3-1 victory over San Francisco on Monday. Morton has now posted three straight quality starts, a stretch of 19 innings with a 1.89 ERA and 21 strikeouts. The home side goes with Edwin Jackson (4-2, 2.48) who comes in off two straight victories and who after going 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA, has defied the odds in 2018 to become a very interesting matchup. Jackson though faces a stiff test here in the defending champs prolific line-up and we think he’ll finally stumble. We like Morton in this match-up, play on the ASTROS.
|08-17-18||Marlins +305 v. Nationals||2-8||Loss||-100||28 h 22 m||Show|
This is an 8* play on the Miami Marlins.
We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time.