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|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-15-15||Jaguars v. Ravens UNDER 49||Top||22-20||Win||100||144 h 13 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Baltimore Ravens.
|11-12-15||Bills v. Jets UNDER 43.5||Top||22-17||Win||100||85 h 40 m||Show|
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets.
|11-09-15||Bears v. Chargers UNDER 49.5||22-19||Win||100||35 h 36 m||Show|
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Chicago Bears and the San Diego Chargers.
|11-08-15||Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 44.5||Top||33-27||Win||100||153 h 10 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys.
|11-08-15||Falcons v. 49ers OVER 45||Top||16-17||Loss||-110||149 h 46 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Atlanta Falcons and the San Francisco 49ers.
|11-08-15||Rams v. Vikings OVER 40||Top||18-21||Loss||-110||146 h 42 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the St. Louis Rams and the Minnesota Vikings.
|11-01-15||Packers v. Broncos UNDER 45.5||Top||10-29||Win||100||131 h 35 m||Show|
WRONG PLAY SELECTED: This is a play on the OVER, we have made a mistake on the entry. Our sincere apologies for any mix-ups. Once again, this is a play on the OVER:
|11-01-15||Titans v. Texans UNDER 43.5||Top||6-20||Win||100||29 h 53 m||Show|
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the UNDER between the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans.
|10-29-15||Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 51||Top||7-36||Win||100||95 h 53 m||Show|
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Miami Dolphins and the New England Patriots.
|10-25-15||Oakland Raiders v. San Diego Chargers OVER 47||Top||37-29||Win||100||150 h 36 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Raiders and the Chargers.
|10-25-15||Cleveland Browns v. St Louis Rams UNDER 42.5||Top||6-24||Win||100||147 h 33 m||Show|
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the Cleveland Browns and the St. Louis Rams.
|10-25-15||Minnesota Vikings v. Detroit Lions OVER 44.5||Top||28-19||Win||100||147 h 32 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions.
|10-25-15||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 43.5||Top||13-23||Win||100||46 h 5 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Kansas City Chiefs.
|10-22-15||Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 41.5||Top||20-3||Win||100||85 h 58 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers.
|10-18-15||Kansas City Chiefs v. Minnesota Vikings OVER 44.5||Top||10-16||Loss||-105||157 h 38 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Minnesota Vikings.
|10-18-15||Washington Redskins v. NY Jets OVER 41||Top||20-34||Win||100||157 h 37 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Washington Redskins and the New York Jets.
|10-11-15||Buffalo Bills v. Tennessee Titans UNDER 43||Top||14-13||Win||100||159 h 12 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Buffalo Bills and the Tennessee Titans.
|10-11-15||Cleveland Browns v. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 44||Top||33-30||Loss||-105||159 h 12 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Cleveland Browns and the Baltimore Ravens.
|10-11-15||Chicago Bears v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 46||Top||18-17||Win||100||159 h 11 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Chicago Bears and the Kansas City Chiefs.
|10-04-15||NY Giants v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 47.5||Top||24-10||Win||100||161 h 1 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the New York Giants and the Buffalo Bills.
|09-24-15||Washington Redskins v. NY Giants OVER 44||Top||21-32||Win||100||84 h 37 m||Show|
his is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants.
|09-20-15||Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 49||Top||17-27||Win||100||94 h 26 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers.
|09-13-15||NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 51.5||Top||26-27||Loss||-108||199 h 54 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the UNDER between the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys.
|09-10-15||Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots UNDER 51||21-28||Win||100||131 h 28 m||Show|
This is an 8* TOTAL on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots.
|01-18-15||Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 53.5||Top||7-45||Win||100||158 h 28 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots.
What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? Obviously the first thing is: “Great starting QB’s”. Indeed, these are a couple of the highest-scoring teams in the league over the last two years, but I feel that the conditions are right for of a more “chess match” style of contest today, where field position becomes paramount and ultimately will expect this total to fall below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. It’s a great situational play; it will be a dark and stormy night, which obviously doesn’t always translate into lower-scoring games, in fact you’ll hear lots of handicappers claim that rain = OVER and wind = UNDER. Both teams are affected equally, although I think Andrew Luck and the Colts more so because of the “Dome” factor. Really, from a strength vs. weakness stand point, what more can be said about these two teams which hasn’t already literally been said millions of times by all the talking heads over the last two seasons? If you’re wagering on this game, you don’t need a professional sports handicapper to break down game tape and analyze individual player match-ups, you need me to find the edges in lines and uncover the safest overall investment opportunities. These are two great offensive teams, but note that this is actually a spot that both sides have played to numerous “unders” in, the most pertinent being that Indianapolis has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of three in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent this season and in eight of 11 in the same position over the last two, while New England has seen the total stay below the number in both Conference championship games that it’s played in the last three seasons. In my opinion, all signs point to this number being just a little high, play on the UNDER.
|01-18-15||Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 47||Top||22-28||Loss||-107||155 h 44 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Green Bay Packers and the Seattle Seahawks.
For a number of different reasons I expect this total to sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Seattle opened the season with a 36-16 win over Green Bay on September 4th. So what’s changed between now and then? Both teams were for the most part expected to be in this game, each overcame early adversity to reach this point. Seattle’s defense struggled to start the year, but the unit would turn things around in the second half and finish as the league’s best. The Packers for the most part are defined by Aaron Rodgers and their dynamic offensive unit, but it was Green Bay’s defense which would improve the most over the course of the campaign, allowing more than 21 points just once in its final nine games. Seattle catches a break though today as Rodgers is ailing from an injured calf, which means that the Packers will clearly be leaning heavily on RB Eddie Lacy today. Note that Rodgers’ 81.5 passer rating in the setback in September was his second-lowest of the season; also note that Lacy’s 34 yards vs. the Seahawks was a season-low as well. The Seattle offense gets its yardage in chunks, a combination of strong running and safe/secure short passing routes to move the ball down the field, invariably this type of offense eats up the clock. Note that the Packers have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four playoff games, while Seattle has seen it dip below the posted number in five of its last eight vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, all of the conditions are right for a low-scoring UNDER in this one.
|01-11-15||Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos UNDER 54||Top||24-13||Win||100||155 h 21 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos.
These two teams are known for their high-scoring tendencies which is why we have such a sky-high total, but when the smoke clears at the end of this one I expect it to fall below the posted number. This is the third time that Broncos QB Peyton Manning has faced the Colts, losing 39-33 last year before holding on for a 31-24 home win on September 7th. "It's not the quarterback versus quarterback thing. We're not on the field at the same time," Colts’ QB Andrew Luck assessed earlier in the week. "I have a lot of respect for (Manning), what he does, what he still does is amazing. He's a stud. I'll worry about the Denver defense, that's what I worry about." Good news for Broncos fans, the team is much healthier with the extra week off, especially on the defensive side of the ball as leading tackler Brandon Marshall will be back after suffering a foot injury in Week 15. Note though, Manning definitely backed his way into the postseason, he posted a poor 76.8 passer rating with three TD’s and six INT’s while averaging just 247.5 YPG over the final four games; Manning will be leaning heavily on RB CJ Anderson today who would lead the NFL with 648 rushing yards and eight TD’s over his last six weeks of the regular season: “The biggest thing is stopping the run before you can get to (Manning)," Indianapolis DE Cory Redding said on Saturday. "We have to focus on that. That's where all our attention is going to go. Then when it's time to focus on 18, our coaches will draw up a good game plan, and we'll attack it the best way possible." Note that the Colts have seen the total go UNDER the number in six of nine vs. teams with winning records this year, while the Broncos have seen it dip below the posted number in three of their last five after two weeks of rest. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move here.
|01-11-15||Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 53||Top||21-26||Win||100||152 h 47 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect this total to dip below the posted number. It’s not going to be an “Ice Bowl”, but temperatures will be frigid (in the low 20’s), both teams will be effected: “It's all mental," Cowboys DE Jeremy Mincey assessed earlier in the week. "We've got to be mentally tough, which we are. Green Bay has to deal with it, too. You can never get use to 11-degree weather. I don't care who you are. (The "Ice Bowl" was a) legendary game and takes you back in history. Here it is, repeating itself again. And you've got a team that's ready for it." Dallas has every reason to feel confident, it’s 8-0 on the road this year. However, take note that Green Bay finished 8-0 at home. Dallas’ offense revolves around RB DeMarco Murray, QB Tony Romo has excelled as opponents are unable to key on the Cowboys oft-maligned pivot. However, take note that Green Bay’s rush defense has excelled down the stretch, after allowing 153.5 rushing yards per game over the first eight, the Packers have yielded an average of just 86.4 on the ground while winning seven of their final eight contests. And as good as Romo has been this year, note that he’s completed only 60.9 percent of his passes with a TD and an INT while being sacked eight times in losing both career postseason road games. Not to be outdone though, note the Dallas’ defensive unit also comes in hot, after allowing 155 yards while falling behind 14-0 to the Lions last week, Dallas would then hold Detroit to 242 the rest of the way. The Cowboys defense will have to be sharp to contain Packers QB Aaron Rodgers; note though, Rodgers is 5-4 as a playoff starter and just 1-2 at Lambeau, passing for 177 yards with a TD, while getting sacked four times in last year’s 23-20 wild-card home loss to the 49ers. Note that Dallas has seen the total fall below the posted number in five of nine this year after two or more consecutive SU wins and in four of six vs. teams with winning records. And note that Green Bay has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after playing with two weeks of rest. I think the writing is on the wall and a more methodical paced game is in the cards, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one.
|12-22-14||Denver Broncos v. Cincinnati Bengals OVER 48.5||Top||28-37||Win||100||188 h 15 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Denver Broncos and the Cincinnati Bengals.
For a number of different situational, motivational and strong trend based reasons, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. While the visitors have clinched a playoff berth, a first-round bye and home-field advantage are still at stake. With a victory today, the Broncos would secure the first round bye. "It's our goal every year. Everybody's hope and dream before the season is you'll be hoisting that championship trophy," Denver coach John Fox confirmed earlier in the week. "We got close last year and came up short ... Obviously, (the AFC West title) is a great accomplishment, but we still have more season left." The Bengals need a victory to punch their ticket to the postseason and come in with plenty of momentum and confidence after throttling the Browns 30-0 last Sunday. RB Jeremy Hill won AFC Offensive Player of the week after rushing for 148 yards and two TD’s. But beating the Broncos is obviously easier said than done, Peyton Manning is 8-0 in his career vs. Cincinnati and he comes in with momentum, bouncing back from his first zero-TD performance with Denver by going 14 of 20 for 233 yards and a TD in a win over Buffalo on December 7th. A date vs. the Bengals is just what the doctor ordered for Manning in my opinion, he’s owned Cincinnati throughout his career, throwing 20 TDs to just five INT’s lifetime. Also note that the Broncos are 4-0 in night games this year, most recently dismantling KC 29-16 on November 30th. If the Bengals passing game was ever going to get untracked, this would be the weekend the team desperately needs that to happen. The Broncos run defense is stout, but it will have its hands full with Hill no doubt, making this the perfect opportunity for Andy Dalton and AJ Green to step up and take advantage of. Denver is less than impressive against the pass and it’s definitely the weak point on that side of the ball. Note that Denver has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of 13 when playing the role of favorite this year, while Cincinnati has seen it sail above the number in four of its seven home games this year. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move in this one.
|12-21-14||Seattle Seahawks v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 37.5||Top||35-6||Win||100||165 h 35 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Arizona Cardinals.
For a number of different situational, motivational and strong O/U trend based reasons, I am expecting this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. It’s a big game, both teams feel they have something to prove and despite them already having played to a very low-scoring contest this season, the conditions unquestionably are now ready to produce a much higher-scoring shootout in my opinion. The Cards will send QB Ryan Lindley onto the field as the home side will try to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, while also hoping to help his team atone for a lackluster 19-3 loss in Seattle earlier in the year. A victory today would give Arizona a franchise record for wins and home field throughout the playoffs (and remember, the Super Bowl is being played at University of Phoenix Stadium this year). The Cards have to be feeling pretty confident, they’re 7-0 at home and will need Lindley to play well. Not fantastic though. Lindley was 4 of 10 for 30 yards while filling in against St. Louis last week. Drew Stanton though is expected to be back by the Playoffs. Obviously the visitors could care less about anything to do with their division rivals, other than making them hurt even more with another victory, the Seahawks come in with a ton of momentum in winning four straight and another SU victory would clinch their fourth playoff appearance in the last five years. The Hawks defense has rounded into form and is once again a serious threat to score on any opponents possession, but take note that Russell Wilson and company have also re-gained their chemistry, the dual threat pivot has posted a 101.2 passer rating over his last four games and was 17 of 22 for 211 yards and a TD, while also running 10 times for 73 yards in the win over the Cards. For Arizona, it will obviously be leaning heavily on RB Kerwynn Williams so as to eleviate the pressure from Lindley; Williams has 34 carries for 175 yards over the last two weeks. I think that it’s important to note that in the last game these team’s played against each other in Arizona, the ‘Hawks would walk away with the 34-22 victory last October 17th. And note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last five after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Arizona has seen it sail above the posted number in three of its last five off a win vs. a division rival. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, in my opinion this number is just a little low, play on the OVER.
|12-21-14||Buffalo Bills v. Oakland Raiders OVER 38.5||Top||24-26||Win||100||161 h 30 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Buffalo Bills and the Oakland Raiders.
For a number of different reasons I expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Buffalo still has a mathematical shot at making the playoffs and as such, I am fully expecting the visitors to come in razor focused on the task at hand,which I believe will translate to some points being put on the board. It’s a do or die game for Buffalo, it must dispatch of the Raiders to remain in contention for a wild-card spot. The Bills come in with plenty of momentum and confidence as well after holding on for a 21-13 upset win at home over Green Bay last Sunday, their third victory in four games. Offensively the Bills will look to turn things around, so far the team ranks second to last in the league with 20 TD’s in 49 red-zone possessions: “We've got to do a better job," coach Doug Marrone confirmed earlier in the week. "We've got to protect better, got to run routes better, we've got to get a better rhythm." Note that the Bills offense will get a big boost today with the expected return of RB CJ Spiller; Spiller has been out with injury and ranks second among backs with 5.0 YPC since entering the league in 2010. Oakland would love nothing more than to play spoiler though, the Raiders would eventually fall apart and lose 31-13 at Kansas City on Sunday; rookie QB Derek Carr was 27 of 56 for 222 yards and a TD while being sacked four times. However, expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from the home side today as the Bills are giving up 5.0 yards per carry and 10 TD’s on the ground over their last eight games. Note that Buffalo has seen the total go OVER the number in four of its last five road games when the total in the contest is set between 38.5 and 42 points, while Oakland has seen it sail above the posted number in four of six home games this year and in five of eight vs. teams with winning records. In my opinoin, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move here.
|12-21-14||Green Bay Packers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 48.5||Top||20-3||Loss||-105||157 h 8 m||Show|
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Green Bay Packers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Packers and Bucs get ready to battle on Sunday afternoon and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I’m expecting this total to have eclipsed the posted number. With a chance of moving one step closer to securing the NFC North, I think that Green Bay comes to play today. In fact, the Packers still have a shot at the NFC’s No. 1 seed (with some help) and they’ll definitley be looking to atone for last week’s listless 21-13 loss at Buffalo; note that the setback snapped a five-game win streak for Green Bay and put it into a must win situation to avoid giving any ground to Detroit who is in last-place Chicago on Sunday: “Everything is right in front of us," Pack quarterback Aaron Rodgers assessed earlier in the week. "We win out, we still win the North." Rodgers will be particularly motivated here after the big egg he laid in Buffalo last week, posting a career-high 25 incompletions on 42 attempts, including two INT’s: “This is a road game we have to have," Packers coach Mike McCarthy said on Saturday. "We clearly understand the importance of winning in December, and we need to take it up a notch as a football team." Tampa Bay won’t simply roll over though, especially because it’s yet to win in front of the home town crowd: "We've come close quite a few times at home," Bucs coach Lovie Smith said yesterday. "Once we get it going – instead of talking about getting that first win, we should be talking about, 'Hey, we haven't lost at home.' ... We realize we have a couple of more opportunities, but what better week than (against Green Bay)?" But slowing down Green Bay will be easier said than done, the Packers are averaging 31.1 points and 383.6 yards per game; and that obviously doesn’t bode well for the porous Buccaneers defensive unit which is allowing an average of 26.2 points and 366.6 yards per game to rank 25th in the league in both categories. And things don’t get any easier for the home side as it will have to make due without the services of star DT Gerald McCoy, who sprained his right knee last weekend. Note that Green Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its four vs. teams with losing records this year, while Tampa Bay has seen it sail above the number in three of its five vs. teams with winning records this season. When you add it all up, in my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move here.
|12-21-14||Baltimore Ravens v. Houston Texans OVER 42||Top||13-25||Loss||-110||157 h 6 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans.
For a number of different situational, motivational and strong trend based factors, I’m expecting this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Baltimore actually controls its own fate, so with only one thing on its mind (winning), I’m expecting the visitors to come in razor focused on the task at hand. And with a mathemtical shot at still gaining entrance to the promised land, I’m also expecting Houston to be at its best today. So from a situational stand point, it simply doesn’t get much better than this. The Ravens are tied with AFC North rival Pittsburgh atop the standings and both teams are just one-half game behind the Bengals for the North lead. Baltimore has to be liking its chances, it’s offense is averaging 26.9 points to rank eighth overall int he league and it will be particularly motivated after barely holding on for a 20-12 win over Jacksonville last Sunday. Houston had won two in a row before losing two QB’s in last week’s 17-10 setback at Indianapolis; starter Ryan Fitzpatrick suffered a broken leg, while rookie Tom Savage suffered a knee injury. That means that either Thad Lewis or Case Keenum will get the start today; Keenum threw of 1,760 yards with nine TD’s and six INT’s in eight starts for the Texans last year. But whoever gets the call today will obviously benefit greatly from the expected return of WR Andre Johnson, who sat out last week with a concussion. From a trend-based angle, this play is also extremely strong, note that Baltimore has seen the total go OVER the number in five of seven road games and in three of its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins. And note that Houston has seen the total sail above the number in four of seven this year when playing the role of underdog. In my opinion, the conditions are indeed right for a higher-scoring shootout, play on the OVER.
|12-20-14||San Diego Chargers v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 41.5||38-35||Win||100||139 h 29 m||Show|
This is an 8* TOP TOTAL on the OVER between the San Diego Charges and the San Francisco 49ers.
For a number of different situational and strong trend based reasons, I expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Both teams come in motivated, but for different reasons. The Chargers need to win out the final two weeks and also get some help to make the postseason; the only thing they can control is their play on the field today and despite being down a few players because of injury, I think San Diego comes in focused and believe that will translate to points on the board: “We've got two big games coming up, and we've got to turn our focus to that," Bolts wide receiver Eddie Royal said earlier in the week. "That will be a great time to get going." San Francisco has been eliminated from playoff contention, but will be looking to end the season on a high note after a disappointing campaign. It’s hard not to imagine the 49ers also relishing the chance to play spoiler here as well. San Francisco was also hit by the injury bug this season, a big reason why the team will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2010. LB Ahmad Brooks is out with a dislocated thumb and RT Anthony Davis will likely not return for the rest of the season after missing the last four games with concussion. Also note the 49ers defense took another hit in last week’s loss in Seattle when leading tackler Chris Borland twisted his ankle. QB Colin Kaepernick has been a huge failure this year, but he’ll be playing for his job today, the offense has totaled just two TD’s during a three-game slide, the franchises longest skid since an 0-5 start in 2010: "Regardless of the situation, we're going out to win," Kaepernick said yesterday. "There's no one on this team that's going to step on that field and say, 'Hey, our season is over. We're not going out to compete.' We're going to compete until the end." It’s a strong situational play, but it becomes even stronger when taking into account a few very strong OVER tendencies that each of these teams has exhibited in this spot recently and over the last few seasons; note that San Diego has seen the total go OVER the number in two of three non-conference games this season and in eight of its last 11 in the same position over the last two. And note that San Francisco has seen the total sail above the posted number in nine of its last 16 after a divisional contest and in seven of its last 12 non-conference games. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move in this one.
|12-18-14||Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 40.5||Top||13-21||Loss||-105||93 h 3 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the OVER between the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
For a number of different reasons I expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. I took this line right when it came out and got 40.5 and it’s since dropped, but regardless, I still love this selection. This is a revenge game for Jacksonville and QB Blake Bortles who fell to the Titans in Week 6. Tennessee has not won a single game since. Theses teams have been out of the playoff picture for a while now obviously and with the finish line in site, I think each can come into this game relaxed, an overall situation which I believe will lead to some points finally being put onto the scoreboard. Rookie QB Bortles will finish the season as starter, last week he’d go 21 of 37 for 210 yards and an INT. Tennessee will be using its third string QB today, Charlie Whitehurst was 10 of 24 for 203 yards after replacing an injured Jake Locker last week. Whitehurst was the starter in the 16-14 win over the Jags on October 12th. Bortles has to be liking his chances for a bounce back today though, in the setback to the Titans he threw for a season-high 336 yards and a TD, his team compiling 379 overall. Tennessee has dropped its last eight games, getting outscored by an average of 13.8 points during the slide; also note that the Titans have given up a whopping 33.7 during a six-game road skid. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, as note that Tennessee has seen the total sail above the posted number in three of four vs. division opponents this season, while Jacksonville has seen it go OVER the number in 15 of its last 28 after two or more consecutive SU losses. In my opinion, when taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move here.
|12-15-14||New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears UNDER 54||Top||31-15||Win||100||161 h 31 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the New Orleans Saints and the Chicago Bears.
For a number of different reasons I expect this total to fall below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Both of these teams sit at 5-8, but the outcome of this game means much more to the Saints than the Bears obviously. New Orleans can take a firm grasp of the weak NFC South with a victory today after Atlanta fell at home to the Steelers yesterday. And with a game vs. the Falcons next week at home, New Orleans can ill afford “looking ahead” this week. Because of this, I think the Saints offense will look to control the tempo of this one from the outset. The Saints have uncharacteristically struggled at home, they leave New Orleans on an 0-4 losing streak, but they’ve won their last two road games at Carolina and Pittsburgh respectively. New Orleans though will need to shore up its defensive unit, it’s clearly once again been the team’s weakness all year as it’s allowed at least 27 points in five straight games: “Guys understand, hey, this is serious. It's their profession. It's our profession. It's going to be our job and the leaders of this team to lead. This is exactly when you find out who your guys are," head coach Sean Payton said of his defense earlier in the week. "If it's not happening ... then we're going to look at other options." The Bears defense can empathize, it’s allowed a league worst 29.1 PPG. But as I always like to say, desperation breeds motiviation, after giving up 75 points in back-to-back losses, I am expecting Chicago to come out with a collective chip on its shoulder today. The last time these teams played was approximately a year ago, and Bears QB Jay Cutler had just 7 points through 40 minutes vs. the visiting Saints, Chicago would eventually succumb 26-18. Cutler has once again been a turnover machine this season and because of that, we can definitely expect the home side to look to establish the run game early and often. The Bears have struggled in that department of late, but catch a break in facing a New Orleans unit which has given up an average of 183.8 during its 1-4 skid. Also note that Chicago will be without the services of star WR Brandon Marshall who was lost for the remainder of the season with a rib injury suffered in the loss to the Cowboys. In my opinion, when taking into account all of the above situational and motivational factors, this number is indeed just a little high; play on the UNDER.
|12-14-14||San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 37.5||Top||7-17||Loss||-107||133 h 46 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks.
For a number of different reasons I expect this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Seattle has turned things around of late and is once again positioning itself for a post-season push. The 49ers will need to sweep their remaining games and get some help if they have any shot at returning to the Playoffs. Despite two of the league’s best defenses going head to head today, I think the conditions are finally rigtht for a higher-scoring shootout. This is a revenge game for the 49ers after the ‘Hawks won 19-3 in San Francisco earlier in the year. San Francisco not only plays with revenge, but likely also for head coach Jim Harbaugh’s job, especially after the team fell 24-13 to the lowly Raiders last week. Seattle could obviously care less about the 49ers issues, the team is rolling on both sides of the ball and easily handled Philadelphia in last weeks 24-14 victory, outgaining the Eagles 440-139. QB Russell Wilson has thrown five TD’s and no INT’s and has a 110.6 passer rating during his team’s three game win skein. San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick has struggled this year and he’s always had difficulty vs. the Seahawks tough defense, but note that the 49ers have seen the total go OVER the number in both games that it’s played as an underdog this season and in seven of its last nine in the same position over the last two. And note that San Francisco has seen the total sail above the posted number in four of its six home games this season. In my opinion, when taking into account all of the above situational, motivational and trend based factors, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move here.
|12-14-14||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 54||Top||27-20||Win||100||129 h 23 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons.
For a number of different reasons I look for this total to fall below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Both teams are still in the playoff hunt, and as such I’m expecting a “playoff like” atmosphere. The Steelers are within one-half game of the Bengals for the AFC North lead after destroying Cincinnati 42-21 last Sunday. RB Le’Veon Bell had 235 yards from scrimmage and three TD’s: "We have a great opportunity in front of us, so I'm going to embrace it," Bell said afterwards. "This is the part of the year where things get a little tight, they get more exciting. Everybody in the locker room is excited about this last couple of weeks." Pittsburgh will obviously once again be leaning heavily on Bell today as it looks to control the pace and tempo of this contest throughout: “As long as he stays healthy, we'll keep feeding him," Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger said earlier in the week. "I've said for many, many weeks now that he's one of the best all-around backs in the game. I think every week he continues to prove that." The Falcons will surely have their hands full today, but at 5-8, they’re tied with New Orleans atop the NFC South still, and that’s despite falling 43-37 at Green Bay on Monday night. Note that the Falcons’ offense is very likely going to be without the services of star WR Julio Jones after he left with a hip injury in the fourth quarter vs. the Packers (if he does suit up, he definitely won’t be at 100%). With Jones sidelined, we can expect the home side to also lean on its RB, Steven Jackson and Atlanta average just 96.7 RYPG to rank 23rd in the league, but the team is 5-1 when running the ball at least 25 times. Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in both games that it’s played this year off a win vs. a division rival, while Atlanta has seen the total fall UNDER the number in two of three non-conference contests this season and in four of seven when playing the role of underdog. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp move here.
|12-14-14||Cincinnati Bengals v. Cleveland Browns OVER 43.5||Top||30-0||Loss||-110||129 h 22 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns.
For a number of different reasons I’m expecting this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Both teams are still playoff hopeful, in this important divisional matchup I will expect each side to open up the playbook. The Browns are turning to rookie QB Johnny Manziel. Cleveland hopes that Manziel will one day be able to become its franchise QB: "I'm very excited to get out on the field with my teammates on Sunday and to have the opportunity to make the Dawg Pound proud," Manziel said after learning he’d get the start today. The Browns will certainly be motivated here after falling 25-24 at home to Indianapolis last Sunday: "We are trying to get the offense to perform at a higher level," said Browns coach Mike Pettine earlier in the week. "Johnny has worked very hard to earn this opportunity and it will be very important for every member of the offense to elevate their play for us to obtain our desired result." Manziel has seen limited action this year, but when he did he made the most of it on November 30th, finishing 5 of 8 for 63 yards, while also scoring on a 10-yard run in a 26-10 setback at Buffalo. The Bengals will obviously be equally as motivated today, especially after falling 42-21 at home to Pittsburgh last week. For a third time this year, Cincinnati would allow a franchise-record 500 total yards. Also note that the Bengals defense took a serious hit when Pro Bowl LB Vontaze Burfict was injured in last week’s loss. Cleveland can empathize with the defensive brain fart though as it would allow at least 23 points for a fourth straight game after blowing a 14 point lead to the Colts. Note that Cincinnati has seen the total go OVER the number in three of five vs. teams with winning records this year, while Cleveland has seen the total sail above the number in eight of its last 14 after two or more consecutive SU losses. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move here.
|12-07-14||NY Giants v. Tennessee Titans UNDER 45.5||Top||36-7||Win||100||157 h 11 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between the New York Giants and the Tennessee Titans.
For a number of different reasons, I believe this total will fall below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Both of these teams came into the season with high expectations, but each has failed miserably. With 13 combined consecutive losses between the clubs, in my opinion, all signs point to the lower-number as the savvy move here. New York comes in off an extremely disheartening loss, it would blow a 21-0 lead to lose 25-24 to Jacksonville; the G-Men have now dropped seven straight. Note that the Giants are likely to be without the services of starting RB Rashad Jennings because of an ankle injury. New York’s defense has been a weak spot this year, but the unit remains resolute: "We're going to stay together no matter what," NY DE Jason Pierre-Paul said earlier in the week. "We're going to finish this season strong." The Titans can empathize, their 2-10 record is tied for the second-worst in the league. Tennessee has also struggled defensively of late, but I think that just adds fuel to the fire in this position and a date vs. the inconsistent Eli Manning and company is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion to get back on track on that side of the ball. The Titans will be extra motivated as well after last week’s debacle, falling 45-21 to Houston, allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw a franchise-record six TD’s. Tennessee QB Zach Mettenberger has looked great at times this year and pretty pedestrian at others, he’ll have to move forward without the services of receivers Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright though, both now out with injury. From a trend based stand point, there is no question that this sets up as a solid selection, note that New York has seen the total go UNDER the number in 13 of its last 22 when playing the role of favorite, while Tennessee has seen it dip below the posted number in seven of its last 12 following a divisional contest. When taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp move here.
|12-01-14||Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets OVER 41.5||Top||16-13||Loss||-110||162 h 45 m||Show|
This is a 10* AFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets.
While neither of these teams has been lighting up the scoreboard of late, I definitely feel the conditions are right for a higher-scoring shootout today and expect this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The Fish are coming off a couple of close losses and will be eager to take advantage of the hapless Jets, we can expect Miami to open up the playbook as it looks to establish the early lead. Miami would losi 39-36 at Denver last Sunday, it was its first loss after entering the fourth quarter with a lead of more than 10 in 14 years. Miami is still very much alive in the Playoff picture though, it sits one game behind a five-team group which is fighting for the two wild-card positions. If history is any precedence, then the Dolphins have to be loving their chances today as they’ve won five of the last six road meetings in the series. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill ranks third in the league with a 70.9 completion percentage and has thrown 12 TD’s to three INT’s in his last six games (it’s interesting to note that the Fish have outscored opponents 231-137 in the first three quarters). That doesn’t bode well for a Jets defense which ranks 30th in the league in giving up an average of 27.5 PPG. Last week New York lost 38-3 to the Bills in Detroit on Monday. The home side turns back to QB Geno Smith who hasn’t started since a 43-23 loss to Buffalo on October 26th. Smith will be leaning heavily on his running game, note that before managing just 92 last week, New York had averaged 170.5 rushing yards in a four game stretch (note that Miami gave up a season-high 201 rushing yards last week as well). Smith will also benefit from some timely injuries, as Miami CB’s Jamar Taylor and Cortland Finnegan are both out with injuries. Note that Miami has seen the total soar above the number in its last two Monday Night games, while New York has seen it go OVER the number in two of three vs. division opponents this season. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the OVER as the savvy move here.
|11-30-14||Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 44||Top||14-13||Loss||-108||130 h 30 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the OVER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Both these teams are coming off a number of lower scoring games and I feel that the offensive units for both sides are prime for an explosion, giving us a number that will go easily over the posted number. The visiting Cincinnati Bengals will look to make it a third straight road win after dispatching New Orleans and Houston in strong offensive efforts. Wide receiver A.J Green is back and producing at a level that makes the entire Bengals offense explosive. Green has posted two big games in a row, catching 18 passes on 24 targets for 248 yards and one touchdown over that span. Cincinnati’s passing game should be a huge factor in this game against a Buccaneers team that is allowing the third-most passing yards per game this season, while only the Jets, Bears and Eagles have allowed more passing touchdowns The Bengals defense been impressive in slowing down the Saints and the Texans’ offense on this road trip but is due for a letdown playing a third straight road game in row. Tampa Bay ended a five-game slide with a 27-7 win over Washington on Nov. 16, but it committed four turnovers and blew a 10-point halftime lead in last week's 21-13 loss at Chicago. Believe it or not though, Tampa Bay is still in a playoff race with the overall ineffectiveness of the NFC South this season. Quarterback Josh McCown is looking for a bounce performance from last week and stated just how important this game is still: "Listen, it's crazy. I would say (no) team in our division expected to be where we're all sitting right now and it's unfortunate," McCown said. "But the reality of our division right now is that it is still up for grabs, and we're not in the favorable position but we're not out.” The Bucs offense against the Bengals defense is going to be a key in this game and McCown has the personnel to points on the board with massively talented Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson as wide receivers. Note the OVER is 7-4 in Tampa Bay non-conference games dating back three seasons now and 2-1 this season already. With this posted number being one of the lower ones we have seen for either team this past month, I think all signs point to a OVER total.
|11-30-14||Carolina Panthers v. Minnesota Vikings OVER 42||Top||13-31||Win||100||130 h 28 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the OVER between the Carolina Panthers and the Minnesota Vikings.
The Panthers and the Vikings played a game last season that went higher than the posted number and I think we are set up for another offensive display in this situation. The visiting Panthers come into this game off a much needed bye week that should help the struggling offense. The Panthers offense managed to go above 20 points just once in the past five games. I expect Coach Ron Rivera and company made it big point of contention in the off-week. A boost to the Panthers offense will be the return of Mike Tolbert who ran for a touchdown score in the previous meetings between these teams last season. Tolbert is a pure fullback that should Cam Newton and the running games operate. The Panthers offense should have confidence against a team a Vikings unit it cut of 35 points in that game. Remember this is a still a massive game for the Panthers who still are looking to defend their division title despite only having a 3-7-1 record on the season. Carolina turned around its’ season with a victory in Minnesota last year, will be looking to do the same in 2014 by ending a six-game win less streak here. The home side Vikings come into this game having won two of three and encouraged with what they saw from rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater who had his best game as a pro last week in a divisional loss to Green Bay. Bridgewater tossed a season-best two touchdown passes and also rushed for a season-high 32 yards. The Vikings offense should have an even easier time against a Carolina defense that is allowing 27.3 points per game this year. Also note that the higher number is 4-1 in Carolina road games this season. An off week won’t be enough to solve all the problems the Panthers defense has had this year. With all signs pointing toward a higher scoring game, the OVER is a sharp move.
|11-27-14||Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 40||Top||19-3||Loss||-107||90 h 42 m||Show|
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers.
To say this is an important divisional battle would be an understatement. There is no love loss between these two sides, I expect these playoff hopefuls to battle tough and look for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. These two teams hate each other, but neither can afford to dwell on what happened in the past, each must fully concentrate on what is going on right at this exact moment, this is the first of two meetings in 18 days. San Francisco is gunning for a sixth consecutive home victory over Seattle today. Of course, this is a revenge game for San Francisco after it lost 23-17 at Seattle in last season’s NFC title game. These teams have split the last four division titles and are both 7-4 and two games behind the first-place Cardinals, however coming off a 19-3 victory over Arizona on Sunday, Seattle holds the tiebreaker over the Lions and the 49ers for the final wild-card position. San Francisco is also coming off a victory, a 17-13 effort over Washington. Seahawks’ RB Marshawn Lynch has always played a big role in Seattle’s wins, he would run for 109 yards and a TD in the playoff victory over the 49ers last year and has gained 175 yards with a score on 39 carries in his last two at San Francisco. Not to be outdone, the 49ers Frank Gore gained 241 yards and averaged 7.3 per carry in his last two meetings in this series in the Bay area. These two teams are known for the defensive prowess, once again among the league leaders in that department, but note that Seattle has seen the total go OVER the number in three of five road games this year and in five of its last eight when playing with six or less days of rest. And note that San Francisco has seen the total sail above the number in 14 of its last 23 after two or more conecutive SU wins. I believe the conditions are finally right for a higher-scoring OVER.
|11-27-14||Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions OVER 46.5||Top||17-34||Win||100||82 h 53 m||Show|
This is a 10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between the Chicago Bears and the Detroit Lions.
Both teams come in highly motivated, each is hungry for a win; suffice it to say, when the smoke clears at the end of this one I expect the total to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Chicago has won a couple vs. weaker teams, but has really struggled in two straight road games vs. elite competition. The visitors will look to reverse that trend today and take advantage of a Lions team which will eagerly be trying to avoid a third-straight loss. It’s put up or shut up for the Detroit offense today, it’s been held to five field goals while dropping back-to-back road games to division leaders Arizona and New England: “If I knew what was wrong, I would have already fixed it," Lions’ receiver Calvin Johnson said following his team’s 34-9 loss to the Patriots last Sunday. "We still have time to get things going in the right direction." Detroit now trails the Packers by one game in the NFC North and is tied with San Francisco and Seattle for the final wild-card spot. Detroit needs to win this game and win big. Bears QB Jay Cutler actually summarized Detroit’s situation the most succintly: "Their offense is up and down at times but I'm sure they'll play well on Thursday," Cutler said yesterday. "They're reeling a bit, so we're going to get their very best shot. They're going to be ready for this one." Chicago has been dreadful on the road of late, especially defensively in giving up 106 points in its last two away from friendly confines. Note that defense will likely be without the services of LB Lance Briggs and CB Kyle Fuller to injury as well today. But Chicago does have momentum, it’s won two straight vs. Minnesota and Tampa Bay respectively and will look to surprise a stout Lions defensive unit today. So with that in mind, expect to see a heavy dose of RB Matt Forte, he’s tied for fourth in the league with 72 catches and third with 1,420 scrimmage yards; note that Forte posted 112 yards and rushed for two TD’s vs. the Bucs last week and has averaged 95.8 rushing yards and 5.4 per carry in his last five vs. the Lions. Chicago is also out for revenge today after losing both games vs. Detroit last year. Note that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six road games and in six of seven as an underdog this season, while Detroit has seen it sail above the number in six of its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses. All signs point to the OVER as the sharp move here.
|11-23-14||Cleveland Browns v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 47.5||Top||26-24||Win||100||19 h 5 m||Show|
This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Cleveland Browns and the Atlanta Falcons.
Neither of these teams has been lighting up the scoreboard recently, but for a number of different reasons, when the smoke clears at the end of this one I look for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Cleveland gets a big boost offensively today with the return of WR Josh Gordon, he’ll be looking to help his team avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this season. Certainly the Browns will be motivated here, last weeks listless 23-7 home loss to Houston on Sunday dropped them behind Cincinnati and Pittsbrugh in the AFC North, the setback snapping a three-game win streak. Note that Cleveland sustained significant injuries on the defensive side of the ball when LB’s Karlos Dansby and Jabaal Sheard fell; and note that the Browns were already missing DE Phil Taylor and linemen Armonty Bryant and John Hughes. The injuries were noticeable last week as Cleveland would give up a season-high 213 rushing yards vs. a Houston team which was playing without star RB Arian Foster. But as mentioned off the top, the return of the dyanmic Gordon will see Cleveland really open up the offensive playbook today, I’m expecting the visitors to put some points on the board (note that Gordon set a franchise-record with 1,646 receiving yards in 2013 and became the only player in NFL history with consecutive 200-yard games in the regular season). Gordon and company will look to take advantage of an Atlanta defense which allows a league-worst 281.2 passing yards per game. And to add insult to injury, while Atlanta does have seven INT’s to its credit over the past four games, three of those were courtesy of Robert Alford, who is now expected to miss at least two weeks with a wrist injury. The home side comes in with some momentum though, after losing five straight it’s now won back to back over Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Falcons are tied with New Orleans atop the dismal NFC South and are actually in control of their own destiny in having gone 4-0 in the division thus far: "We're now back in the driver's seat of our destiny," Atlanta RB Steven Jackson said earlier in the week. "That's where we want to be. Ultimately you have to continue to win. You can't look for anybody else to help you out." QB Matt Ryan is fifth in the league in averaging 279.3 YPG and has just one INT over his last four games. A couple of suspect defenses facing off against a couple of explosive offenses. Note that Cleveland has seen the total go OVER the number in three of four as an underdog this year, while Atlanta has seen it sail above the number in two of its three home games thus far. When taking all of the above factors into account, I feel that this number is just a little low; play on the OVER.
|11-23-14||Jacksonville Jaguars v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 50.5||3-23||Win||100||19 h 3 m||Show|
This is an 8* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts have lost two of three and also lost their top running back for the season last week, but a date vs. the punchless Jaguars is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track; when the smoke clears at the end of this one I look for this total to stay below the posted number. Indianpolis is the only team in the division with a winning record despite dropping a 42-20 home effort to New England last week. It was the second time in three games that the team gave up more than 40 points: “It's up to us to execute," Colts’ DE Cory Redding said. "Look, it's a tough pill to swallow, but let's make it clear -- we've got to go out and play winning football." Facing the Jags is a cure for any defensive blues, Jacksonville ranks 31st in the league at just 15.8 PPG, 27th with an average of 315.1 yards and has been outscored 138-40 during a four game slide vs. the Colts. Jacksonville will have its hands full no doubt in trying to slow down QB Andrew Luck and company, but note that Luck is coming off a season-low 322 yards last week. Indianapolis was held to a season-low 19 rushing yards on 17 carries and lost RB Ahmad Bradshow to a broken leg. Jacksonville comes in rested here after its bye week and I think can keep this one competitive. Note that the Jaguars have seen the total go UNDER the number in nine of their last 14 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while the Colts have seen it dip below the number in their last two games they’ve played as a favorite of 10 points or more. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the UNDER as the savvy move here.
|11-17-14||Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans OVER 45.5||27-24||Win||100||26 h 23 m||Show|
This is an 8* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tennessee Titans
For a number of different reasons, I believe this total will sail above the posted number. Pittsburgh was on an offensive surge before laying an egg in last week’s 20-13 loss to a New York Jets team which was just 1-8 coming in. It’s interesting to note, the Steelers have been outscored 88-26 in the first quarter while on the road this year. In fact, Pittsburgh has allowed an NFL-high 36 points on its opponents’ first offensive possession. Tennessee will surely be looking to take advantage of that fact and to atone for last week’s listless setback as well, the Titans would rack up 142 yards and a 7-0 lead after the first quarter, only to then throw it in neutral the rest of the way in the eventual 21-7 loss to Baltimore. Tennesse QB Zach Mettenberger has an opportunity today, the Steelers have allowed four of the five QB’s they’ve faced on the road to post a passer rating of at least 109.3. We know what Ben Roethlisberger is capable of, and he’ll be looking for his run game to get untracked today; a date vs. the porous Titans line is just what the doctor ordered as Tennessee has given up an AFC-worst 4.53 YPC since October, including 363 yards and four TD’s in its last two losses. Note that Pittsburgh has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of six this year when playing the role of favorite, while Tennessee has seen it go OVER the number in eight of its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU losses. The situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to the OVER as the sharp move in this one.