Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-17-22 | Titans +3 v. Packers | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
We could see a couple of run-first offenses when the Packers meet the Titans on TNF, based on the Packers’ success against the Cowboys. Henry and the Titans are formidable on the ground, and while Henry was limited against the Broncos last week, he’ll have and easier time rushing against the Packers’ sub-par run defense this week. That may not be the case for the Packers’ fine RB duo, Dillon and Jones. The Titans have one of the league’s top run defenses and are very tough in 3rd down conversions. We’ve seen a general improvement in the Titans’ defense lately; even the pass defense has improved, limiting opposing passers to a 74 rating in the last three weeks. The Titans QB pressure stats are among the best in the league, with 103 pressures, 29 sacks and 40 knock-downs. They are tough in points allowed, 3rd down conversions, and take-aways as well, making for a difficult evening for Rodgers on Thursday. The Packers defense, as mentioned, is weak against the run, but tough for the season, though regressing lately, in the air. Their passer pressure stats are below average, but are up against a Titans O-line that has struggled to protect Tannehill, last week being the exception. Rodgers had his best game of the season last week, but one game does not a season make. He and the Packers’ offense has struggled with picks and fumbles this season. The Packers successfully exploited the Cowboys’ poor run defense last week. Rogers actually threw less than average, although more successfully. He is still banged up with an injured thumb on his throwing hand. I like Henry to bounce back with a big game on a chilly Thursday night. Tannehill is also off his best game of the season, and is an underestimated offense manager. Take the visiting team Titans to cover, although a win would not surprise me. | |||||||
11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -3.5 | Top | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a big game for Tulane. Not only is it their home finale, being played in front of a national TV audience no less, but the Green Wave are off a tough 38-31 loss here to UCF last week. To get a shot at revenge (at UCF) and a place in the AAC Champ Game, Tulane is going to have to win the last two games. I like their chances tonight and will be laying the short number.
Revenge must also be considered when handicapping this matchup. Tulane has lost to SMU seven straight times, but four of the last six losses have been by four points or less. It was a blowout in the Metroplex last season, but that was a much worse Tulane team (that finished 2-10 SU).
This is Willie Fritz’s best team yet, one that is ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings. It was an unusually poor defensive effort that cost the Green Wave last week, not to mention falling behind 10-0 just four minutes into the game did not help. I expect a better effort on the defensive side of the ball here, from a group that is still only allowing 18.7 points/game at home. I think this Tulane defense can also limit explosive plays from Tanner Mordecai and the SMU offense.
SMU has won three in a row straight up and covered the number in four straight. But two of those three SU wins came against the bottom-feeders of the AAC (Tulsa, USF). The Mustangs’ defense is a liability coming into this matchup as it has given up 32.6 points/game for the season and 40.0 the L3 weeks. Even with the loss last week, Tulane has an excellent home record under Fritz, including 4-1 SU/ATS in finales. Overall, they are 26-10 ATS L36 home games. Two road games in six days is not a great spot for SMU, who was tied at the half last week vs. USF. 10* | |||||||
11-16-22 | Warriors +2 v. Suns | Top | 119-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Golden State is just 6-8 to start the year, but they showed signs of life on Monday when they blew out San Antonio at home by a score of 132-95. I like them here on the road against a banged up Suns team. Count on the Warriors taking this one seriously. It’s a chance to beat their main division rival and the team that has had the best record in the Western Conference over the last two years. This is also a huge revenge spot as the Warriors were blown out by 29 points when they faced the Suns earlier this year. Phoenix has dropped two in a row coming into tonight, first to Orlando (114-97) and then to Miami (113-112). Overall, they are 2-4 L6 games. Two starters have been out - Chris Paul and Cam Johnson. Only Paul (questionable) has a chance of seeing the floor tonight. The defense has really fallen off a cliff with those two out and while Paul’s replacement Cam Payne did look good in a couple of the games, he went 4 of 17 against the Heat. Golden State’s starting five has looked excellent of late and Steph Curry should be ready to go after playing a season-low 27 minutes against the Spurs. All signs point to this being a “statement game” for the Warriors. 10* | |||||||
11-16-22 | Bulls +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 110-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a revenge game for Chicago. They lost 115-111 at home to New Orleans exactly one week ago. That result was followed by another loss for the Bulls as they went down 126-103 at the hands of Denver on Sunday. The team has now dropped four of its last five. But this time the Bulls catch the Pelicans in the second game of a back to back. New Orleans was kind to me last night with a 113-102 win over Memphis. I laid the short price as the Grizzlies were without one of their two best players (Desmond Bane). That was obviously a wise decision. The Pelicans didn’t even need Zion Williamson to win last night. He sat, but six teammates finished in double figures led by 30 points from CJ McCollum (who I predicted would have a big game). As a team, NO went 18 of 38 from three-point range. I don’t see the Pelicans shooting as well tonight, even if Williamson returns, as they went just 3 of 19 on three-pointers the last game vs. Chicago. That previous meeting was closely contested with 14 lead changes and nine ties. Now, Chicago is better rested (just two games in last seven days) while New Orleans played last night. A big problem for the Pelicans has been interior defense, so that’s an area the Bulls need to attack here. 10* Chicago | |||||||
11-15-22 | San Diego State -4.5 v. Stanford | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
A “mid-major” laying points on the road against a Power 5 Conference team speaks volumes and in the case of San Diego State-Stanford, the number is more than justified. SDSU is no “ordinary” mid-major. They’ve made back to back NCAA Tournament appearances and are the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Stanford has yet to appear in the Big Dance since Jerod Haase came to Palo Alto in 2016. San Diego State is excellent defensively. They ranked 2nd in efficiency in the KenPom rankings a year ago and have allowed the ninth fewest points per 100 possessions to start this season. The Aztecs held Cal State Fullerton to 57 points and BYU to 75. Stanford figures to have all sorts of trouble scoring tonight. The Cardinal are shooting just 23.7% from three thus far and were just held to 50 points by Wisconsin on Friday. They are 0-2 ATS on the year, having also failed to cover the season opener vs. Pacific. A real encouraging sign for San Diego State to start the season is that they’ve scored 80 points in both games. That’s something they did only once all of last season. Stanford let Pacific score 78. Back to the San Diego State defense - they have been outstanding at forcing turnovers. CS Fullerton and BYU coughed it up a combined 38 times. Not only has Stanford turned it over a total of 34 times so far, but they had one of the worst turnover rates in the country last year. This is a terrible matchup for the home side. Lay the points. 10* San Diego State | |||||||
11-15-22 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Memphis is 9-5 with five wins in their last seven games. But they did lose on Sunday, 102-92 at Washington, without Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. That loss was also the Grizzlies’ lowest scoring game of this season. They are now 0-3 this year when either Morant or Bane does not suit up.
Morant is off the injured list and Jaren Jackson Jr seems set to make his season debut tonight. But Bane being out 2-3 weeks is a significant loss considering he’s the team’s top three-point shooter.
The Grizzlies have a pretty mediocre net efficiency rating. I think it’s fair to say that - so far - their schedule has not been all that daunting.
New Orleans is 7-6 and coming off a 119-106 win over Houston on Saturday. They’ll be home now through Thanksgiving, so they need to take advantage. So far the Pelicans are just 3-2 in home games. I understand Memphis’ optimism with JJJ and Morant returning. But New Orleans has the better point differential and net efficiency rating this season. Even if Zion Williamson doesn’t play, the Pelicans have enough depth to pull this one out. In particular, look for CJ McCollum, long overdue to get hot, to have a big game. The Grizzlies let Washington hit 19 threes on Sunday. Lay the short number here. 10* | |||||||
11-14-22 | Commanders v. Eagles -10.5 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
The Commanders were in tough against the Vikings last week and won their three previous games but they are on the road against a team that is consistently good in just about every area on Monday. Not to mention healthier and better rested. The Eagles run defense is their weak point, and the Commanders do have their 2 player run attack performing well, but the Commanders don't put up many rush points. The Commanders' pass attack is very pedestrian, and will face a pass defense that is formidable in takeaways, passer rating, sacks, etc, etc. I really don't see the Commanders scoring a ton of points on Monday. Wentz is probably very lucky to be out of this one. | |||||||
11-14-22 | Wofford v. Drake -10 | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a tough spot for Wofford. After losing 91-80 at High Point, a game they were favored to win, this is the second road game in three days for the Terriers. I don’t like their chances.
Meanwhile, Drake has played only once - last Wednesday - and they easily defeated IUPUI by a score of 80-48.
For Wofford, the best player from last season is back. B.J. Mack led the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in 2021-22. Mack has averaged 18 points in the first two games this year. The problem is that he doesn’t have much returning help. After Mack, last year’s top seven scorers all departed. They’ve been replaced by JUCOs and six freshmen.
Against High Point, the Terriers never really stood a chance. They were down 17 at halftime and just couldn’t get enough stops in the second half. Unlike tonight’s opponent, Drake is an experienced team. Five players started at least 13 games on last year’s 25-win squad, making them the logical favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference in 2022-23. The Bulldogs are a very deserved double digit favorite in this game and should have no problem covering the spread. 10* | |||||||
11-13-22 | Cowboys -5 v. Packers | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
The Cowboys come into their road game with the Packers healthy, rested and on a two game win streak, none of which can be said of the Packers. On offense, they have seen a huge improvement since the return of Prescott, plus games against a couple of lesser lights. One of those 'lesser lights' just beat up on Green Bay last week. There is almost no area where the Packers can match the Cowboys offense over their last three games. Prescott has bounced back from injury well, and the run game has taken off in recent weeks. | |||||||
11-13-22 | Broncos v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
The Broncos managed 21 points in their last game and are off a bye in week 9 but they face a tough run-crazy Titans squad just minutes away from beating the Chiefs last week. The Broncos offense has been a disappointment but the defense has been spot-on this year. They are tough to score on and defend well in the red zone, but are best against the pass, which is definitely secondary in the Titans' plans. Note that the Broncos also lost their top pass rusher, traded away at the deadline. The Broncos can be run on, at 21st and 27th in rush yards allowed and yards per attempt, but they are not as easy to score rush points on. Both of these teams' defenses are about equally hard on passers,while neither team is particularly good at protecting their own QB. | |||||||
11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants -4 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
It will be Barkley vs Pierce, two very good RBs looking to lead a pair of run-first offenses when the Texans take on the Giants in New York. Pierce is banged up, but likely to play and off a very impressive rebound game against the Eagles. Barkley is healthy and well rested after a bye week, and playing against the worst run defense in the league. The Texans are 32nd in rush yards allowed and very poor in all other categories, and of course, teams routinely run against them most of the time. In this case it will Barkley and QB Jones, a terrific one-two punch, 4th in the league in rushing yards. How will Pierce fare? The Giants rush defense give up plenty of yards, but not points. The New York defense overall is very good in the red zone, and in limiting 3rd down conversions. The pass defense is average in yards, and limits passers to an 82 rating lately. The Giants blitz a lot, but it is the Texans who are the more successful pressure-ers. Opposing passers have looked good lately with a 108 rating in the last 3 Texans' games. | |||||||
11-12-22 | Texas A&M v. Auburn -1 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
These two SEC programs are in very different places right now. Auburn just made a coaching change and certainly seems to be reinvigorated by interim boss Carnell “Cadillac” Williams. Texas A&M was supposed to contend for a national title this year. They are now 3-6 and look to be playing out the string. Now Auburn shares that same 3-6 record. But they showed me something by coming back from an early three touchdown deficit to force overtime last Saturday in Starkville. Keep in mind Williams was on a short week and wasn’t even named coach until Monday. It’s amazing his team got to overtime against a team like Mississippi State. The Tigers can put up points. They’ve averaged more than 31 the L3 games. Texas A&M can’t do anything offensively. They’ve been better recently, but have used three different quarterbacks and have yet to score more than 28 points in any game. The A&M roster is severely depleted right now due to injuries and suspensions. This is the program’s first five-game losing streak since 1980. I am just not sure how much they care. Auburn is also on a five-game slide, but Williams seems to have them reinvigorated and being at home this week, it’s looking like “War Eagle.” Auburn has covered seven of the last eight times they’ve been home chalk of 3.5 points or less. 10* | |||||||
11-12-22 | North Texas v. UAB -5.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
Ok. So UAB didn’t work out last week. But now QB Dylan Hopkins is set to return and I love the Blazers in this spot hosting North Texas.
With North Texas on a 6-0 ATS win streak, they have become overvalued. Conversely, UAB is on a 0-4 ATS losing skid and is approaching peak value. Before last week’s 2OT loss to UTSA, the Blazers were 11-0 ATS at home off a loss.
UAB had the 553-494 edge in total yards vs. UTSA. The return of Hopkins just makes the offense even more dynamic.
With LSU on deck, UAB MUST win this game to have a shot at bowl eligibility. North Texas already has its six wins, most of them coming against bad teams. Key here will be UAB’s ability to run the ball. On the road, North Texas is giving up 214 rush yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. 10* | |||||||
11-12-22 | Notre Dame v. Navy +17 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Coming off a giant win over Clemson, this looks to be a classic letdown spot for Notre Dame, who is back in the CFP Top 25. While the Fighting Irish are 9-1 SU the L10 games vs. Navy, they are just 5-5 ATS.
A service academy getting this many points is typically an attractive option as they will look to control the clock and thus it’s difficult for the favorite to build any kind of margin. The numbers bear this out as Army, Navy & Air Force are a combined 40-22-2 ATS when getting 14 or more points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, the total for this game is only 42. So getting more than two touchdowns feels like a real nice luxury to have.
Yes, the Irish did just beat Clemson by three touchdowns. But as a double digit favorite, Marcus Freeman’s team is 0-4 ATS with outright losses to both Marshall and Stanford. They also failed to cover against UNLV and Cal.
By a variety of metrics, Navy’s defense is pretty strong against the run. Those metrics include yards per rush, line yards and stuff rate. Conversely, ND’s defense is a lot weaker against the run than the pass. We know what Navy will look to do on offense here.
Notre Dame will almost certainly win this game. But look for it to be closer than the experts think. 10* | |||||||
11-11-22 | East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
East Carolina will come into historic Nippert Stadium (where Cincinnati has won 31 straight) on a three-game win streak and off a bye. Last time out they snapped a four-game Friday night losing streak with a 27-24 upset of BYU. It was the Pirates’ second straight win as a dog, having previously upended UCF 34-13 as a six-point home dog.
Now ECU looks for its first win at Cincy since 2001. They’ve lost 10 of 11 overall to the Bearcats including four straight. It was a 35-13 final last year in Greenville. But that was of course to a Cincinnati team that went on to become the first “Group of Five” team to ever make the College Football Playoff.
This year has seen the Bearcats have real problems covering the spread. They are just 1-5-1 ATS the last seven games after failing to cover Saturday vs. Navy. They came in as 18.5-point favorites but won just 20-10.
The Bearcats’ three games prior to that were all decided by four points or less. One of those saw them favored by 27 at home vs. a terrible South Florida team. Due to being one of the most penalized teams in the country, it’s been very difficult for Cincy to win by any kind of margin this year. At this point of the season, I simply believe that East Carolina is the better football team here. They are certainly more than capable of ending Cincy’s long home win streak. QB Holton Ahlers has completed over 70 percent of his pass attempts for 2,632 yards. | |||||||
11-11-22 | Kansas State -6 v. California | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Kansas State figures to struggle when the Big 12 portion of the schedule begins, so it is imperative that the Wildcats perform well against non-conference opponents. Tonight’s game vs. Cal typifies the concept of “must win” and I believe they will - by a comfortable margin.
There are nine newcomers on the roster this year in Manhattan. Yet the season opener vs. UTRGV could not have gone any better. Now KSU was expected to win big as 22-point favorites. But they ended up delivering a 34-point victory, which was a very encouraging sign.
On the other hand, Cal’s season did not get off to a rousing start. As a six-point favorite here in Berkeley, they lost outright to UC Davis as a six-point favorite. Over the game’s final 9:30, the Bears made only one field goal.
Cal is not exactly expected to light it up this year as they were picked to finish second to last in the Pac 12. Six players finished in double figures for K-State in the opener. Cal shot just 38.1% as a team in its first game. I know it’s a small sample size, but the road team is a justifiable favorite in this one and should roll. 10* | |||||||
11-10-22 | Falcons -3 v. Panthers | Top | 15-25 | Loss | -104 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
It could be very much a run-centric game when the Falcons meet the Panthers on Thursday. The Falcons run more than just about anyone, and now have Patterson back, plus an up-and-comer in Allgeier, plus Huntley, and not to mention Mariota. Rain and wind are in the forecast, and the Panthers have a poor 28th rated rush defense. | |||||||
11-10-22 | Central Michigan v. Marquette -17.5 | Top | 73-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
While Marquette won its first game against Radford by only 10 points, I’m expecting a blowout tonight. The Golden Eagles were up 21 on Radford before a five-minute scoring drought helped close the gap and make the final score closer than it should have been.
This is the first game of the season for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are off their worst season in many years as they finished 7-23 overall. They were competitive in the MAC, losing by an average of only six points per game, but struggled against non-conference foes, going 1-10 losing by 18 points/game.
Need I remind you that Marquette is NOT a MAC team?
The Golden Eagles were solid defensively in the opener, limiting Radford to 20% shooting from three. The problem was they shot just 26% from three themselves and also turned it over 18 times. But I expect a more solid game from start to finish from Shaka Smart’s team tonight. They had four double digit scorers vs. Radford. CMU lost a lot from last season’s roster and figures to really struggle in the early going. Four of the top five scorers and rebounders from last year departed. A team that turned it over on nearly 20% of its possessions in 2021-22 figures to not fare well against a Smart-coached team. 10* | |||||||
11-10-22 | Georgia Southern +3.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 17-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
It has been a disappointing season for Louisiana, who was 13-1 in 2021. It’s not like a dropoff wasn’t expected. Billy Napier hightailed it for Florida and they had to replace their QB and four starters along the offensive line. But a 4-5 SU record through nine games is certainly NOT what the Ragin Cajuns were expecting.
Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has already exceeded last year’s win total (3) and now has its eyes on bowl eligibility for first year head coach Clay Helton. There has been a radical transformation on offense with Helton jettisoning the triple option for an “Air Raid” and the result has been 36.2 points/game.
Both teams are coming off losses, though Louisiana is in worse shape having dropped five of seven overall. Georgia Southern looked to have South Alabama beat (were up 21-7 in the first quarter) but gave up two touchdowns in the fourth to lose 38-31. They only trailed for the final 5:50 of the game.
Louisiana also fell apart late in last week’s loss, getting outscored 16-0 by Troy in the fourth quarter to lose 23-17. So we’ve got two teams off disappointing losses, but Georgia Southern is clearly more enthusiastic about where it’s at right now. I’m taking the points here as I think the Louisiana defense is going to struggle at slowing down the Eagles’ offense. Except for one game vs. Arkansas State, the Ragin Cajuns have not gone over 24 points since September. Take the points. 10* | |||||||
11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan -1 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Buffalo had a five game win streak (SU and ATS) snapped last week in Athens as they fell to Ohio 45-24 as a 2.5-point road favorite. While it was a nice run, the Bulls are a team that has had some good luck go their way, whether you’re opposing quarterbacks being out or turnovers.
Central Michigan picked up a much needed win last week, beating Northern Illinois 35-22 as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Chippewas still have a chance to go bowling, but that would require winning out. They must get better at protecting the football though. Each of the last two games have seen CMU turn it over four times.
I believe the home team will be able to control the trenches in this game. RB Lew Nicholls III returned last week but it was actually backup QB Jase Bauer that led the way with 109 yards rushing. On the defensive side, CMU has been one of the best teams at stopping the run. Buffalo’s defense is 89th nationally in yards allowed.
Not only did Central Michigan’s offensive line pave the way for 245 rushing yards last week against Northern Illinois, but they also did not give up a single sack. CMU is 5-0 ATS the last five times it has been off a game with 200-plus yards rushing. Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS off its previous nine SU losses. 10* | |||||||
11-08-22 | Ball State +11.5 v. Toledo | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
The last two games for Toledo have seen wild comebacks, one go their way and one not go their way. Three Saturdays ago, they were up 27-10 on Buffalo heading into the fourth quarter. They ended up losing that game 34-27 due to six turnovers. The following week, with a backup QB, they came from behind to defeat Eastern Michigan 27-24. There is uncertainty over who is going to be the starting QB for the Rockets tonight. Dequan Finn, who got injured at the end of the Buffalo game and is in the running for MAC Offensive Player of the Year, is questionable. Backup Tucker Gleason threw three touchdowns last week vs. EMU. Regardless of who is playing quarterback, Toledo is clearly capable of putting points on the board. But tonight they run into a Ball State defense that has held four straight opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Cardinals picked up a huge 27-20 win last Tuesday at Kent State as seven-point underdogs. That sets this game up as likely to decide who represents the MAC West in the Conference Championship. Ball State is 3-2 in conference play, one game behind Toledo, who is rightly considered the class of the conference. But I think this spread is too high given the uncertainty at QB. Even if Finn does return, there has to be some concern over how effective he can be. The area where I expect Ball State to be effective on offense is running the ball. If you remove a game vs. Central Michigan, this Toledo defense has poor numbers against the run. Four opponents have run for 200+ yards on them, including the likes of UMass and San Diego State. The Cardinals are also much better than the Rockets when it comes to not turning the football over. You’re going to want to take the points in this edition of Tuesday night MAC-tion. 9* | |||||||
11-08-22 | Montana +4 v. Duquesne | Top | 63-91 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This number has already been bet down, but there’s still value with underdog Montana. The Grizzlies experienced a terrible finish to last season, losing 8 of their last 11 games. Before that, they were 15-6 overall and 8-2 vs. the rest of the Big Sky Conference. I believe this team is going to be on a mission to start the season and it helps that last year’s leading scorer Josh Bannan (15.1 points/game) is back. There were a couple of key transfers brought into Missoula as well. The most notable being Dischon Thomas from Colorado State. After going 6-24 with 17 straight losses last season, Duquesne head coach Keith Dambrot decided to clean house and he’s basically got a whole new roster coming into the year. Four of the top six scorers from last year are gone as are 7 of the 10 players that averaged at least nine minutes per game. One of the key new pieces, Tevin Brewer, is out due to an appendectomy. Montana was very effective from the free throw line last season, ranking 11th nationally in FT percentage. They also were top 35 in fewest turnover rate. Duquesne was bottom 20 in the country in home field goal shooting percentage and bottom 10 in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Take the points here. 10* | |||||||
11-07-22 | Raptors v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
These teams just met Sunday and the Raptors came out on top 113-104. That was in Toronto though and Fred VanVleet was a monster, going for 30 points and 11 assists. Zach LaVine sat out yesterday for Chicago as his usage is being managed due to offseason knee surgery. The expectation is that he’ll play tonight. Also, you’ve got to expect more from DeMar DeRozan than what he gave the Bulls Sunday. Yes, DeRozan shot 7 for 9, but that was a season-low in field goal attempts. Tonight the Bulls get to play host and they’ve won three of four here in the Windy City. All three victories have been by a minimum of 15 points. Toronto is without leading scorer Pascal Siakam and there’s no way VanVleet is going to be as productive as he was on Sunday. Another key takeaway from last night’s game is that Chicago turned it over 17 times, leading to 23 Toronto points. No way they are that careless again. I expect a Bulls’ bounce back at home where they are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last four times hosting the Raptors. 8* | |||||||
11-07-22 | Ravens -1.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
The Ravens and Jackson face the Saints and Dalton under the lights on Monday Night Football. Not a lot separates these two teams in stats, although the Ravens have faced much stiffer defenses. The Ravens' addition of Roquan Smith also adds a solid component to their defense. The Saints completely shut down the hapless Raiders last week but the same team gave up 42 points to the Cardinals the week before. | |||||||
11-07-22 | Memphis -2.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is one of the “juicier” matchups on Opening Night of the College Basketball season as two teams coached by former NBA All-Stars collide.
Memphis went 22-11 last season, including 13-5 in the American Conference, and made the NCAA Tournament. In the Big Dance, Anfernee Hardaway’s team gave Gonzaga a real scare in the second round as they had a 10-point lead at halftime. Eventually though, the Tigers would lose by four points.
Vanderbilt went just 19-17 last season and they were 7-11 in the SEC for Jerry Stackhouse. Notably, the Commodores were just 1-7 when up against a ranked team. Memphis may not be ranked heading into 2022-23, but they are certainly the better team in this matchup.
Kendric Davis is a key transfer for Memphis, coming over from conference rival SMU. Davis joins holdovers Alex Lomax and DeAndre Williams for what should be a formidable scoring trio. The Tigers have nine seniors on the roster, so it’s a veteran team and I look for them to attack Vandy inside in this matchup. Vanderbilt lost their best player from last year, Scottie Pippen Jr, to the NBA. I think they’re going to struggle to score here against what should be one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Furthermore, not only should Memphis have success attacking Vandy down low, but they should have a big night from three. Defending the arc was a major problem for the Commodores last season. 10* | |||||||
11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
The Seahawks meet the Cardinals at home off three straight victories, one of them against the Cardinals. The Seahawks have a much improved defense since the start of the season. There is now no defensive category that Seattle doesn't lead the Cardinals in the last three games, against roughly similar competition. The Cardinals' defense is struggling against the run which plays to Seattle's fine young running back Walker III. Arizona has also allowed a 93 average passer rating compared to 76 for the Seahawks in their last three games. | |||||||
11-06-22 | Dolphins -4 v. Bears | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 34 m | Show |
Facing the Bears at home, the Dolphins successfully propped up a couple of areas in need of improvement, pass defense and run offense. The Bears brought in a quality receiver, but moved their top two defensive players out. We saw some of the effect last week as the Chicago defense absolutely plummeted in effectiveness. They allowed double their season's average points against total, and their vaunted pass defense fell apart, allowing a third more yards. Against a healthy and fired up Tua-lead Dolphins pass attack, this is not good news. | |||||||
11-06-22 | Packers -3.5 v. Lions | Top | 9-15 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
The Lions' offense bounced back against the Dolphins last week but went absolutely nowhere in previous weeks against the Cowboys and Patriots. The Packers have a solid pass defense, 2nd in pass yards allowed, which will go some way to limiting Detroit's options. Green Bay is also strong in red zone defense, and have limited 3rd down conversions. They have an average passer rating of 79 in their last three weeks. The Lions also just shipped out their talented tight end at the deadline. | |||||||
11-05-22 | Wake Forest v. NC State +3 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Wake Forest and NC State are both Top 25 teams that come into Saturday sporting identical 6-2 straight up records. But at the betting window, it’s been a different story for these ACC rivals. Wake Forest is 6-2 ATS while NC State is 2-6 ATS.
Two Thursdays ago, NC State found itself down 21-3 at home to sorry Virginia Tech. But thanks to a QB change, the Wolfpack rallied for the 22-21 win. MJ Morris was the spark, coming in and throwing for three touchdowns. Morris completed 69% of his passes for 265 yards in the second half alone vs. Va Tech. With Devin Leary out for the season, NC State looks to have found its answer at QB1.
Wake Forest is coming off an awful 48-21 loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over eight times, including six in the third quarter alone. The Demon Deacons’ only previous loss was in double overtime to Clemson, but I am skeptical of this team. The offense remains one-dimensional (can’t run the ball) and I believe that the NC State defense can slow down QB Sam Hartman.
NC State should not be an underdog in this game. They have won 15 straight at home, which is the sixth-longest home win streak in the nation currently. Wake Forest hasn’t won here in Raleigh since 2018. The Wolfpack are undervalued right now due to a five-game ATS losing skid and not having Leary. But Morris looks to be the real deal and you should take the points here. 10* | |||||||
11-05-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia -8 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
Tennessee is the definition of a “public underdog” this week. I will look to take advantage of that perception and fade the undefeated Volunteers in this spot as they visit fellow unbeaten, and reigning national champion, Georgia.
We all know that Tennessee’s offense has been great in 2022. But when they faced Georgia last year, things did not go so well. QB Hendon Hooker averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt (he’s averaging 10.6 YPA this season, for a frame of reference) and the Vols lost 41-17.
Georgia did lose a great deal of production to the NFL, but they remain quite strong on the defensive side of the ball. They are fourth nationally in success rate and fifth in EPA. Opposing offenses average only 4.6 yards per play against them.
Look for Kirby Smart and the Georgia coaching staff to slow the tempo of this game way down. The Bulldogs are already bottom 25 in the country in tempo. They will look to play “keep away” from the Tennessee offense. The last time a top-two team was an underdog of at least eight points was Notre Dame in the 2020 ACC Championship Game. The Fighting Irish lost by 24 to Clemson. Georgia makes a statement here. 8* | |||||||
11-05-22 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
UCF has definitely had Memphis’ number through the years, winning 14 of the 16 all-time matchups. But the last time the Golden Knights paid a visit to the Liberty Bowl, which was 2020, they lost an insane 50-49 game. For Memphis, that ended a 13-game losing streak to UCF!
UCF won last year at “The Bounce House” 24-7 as a two-point dog. They come into this year’s meeting off a thrilling 25-21 win over Cincinnati, ending their own long losing streak to the Bearcats. But that win came with a cost. Starter John Rhys Plumleee was knocked out of that game with a concussion. Backup Mikey Keene may have engineered a game-winning drive, but he’s a pretty clear downgrade from Plumlee.
Even though they have lost three in a row, this is a great spot to take the points with Memphis, who is coming off a bye. Two of those three losses were by a total of three points, one of them a four overtime game. The other was a blown lead late against Houston that involved an onside kick. There probably is also no shame in losing by 10 at Tulane, who is #19 in the initial CFP rankings.
Tigers QB Seth Henigan has a 15-5 TD-INT ratio and has played well this season. No matter who ends up playing QB for UCF here, give me the points. Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog going back to 2017. 10* | |||||||
11-05-22 | UTSA v. UAB +1 | Top | 44-38 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
UAB and UTSA are the last two C-USA Champions. UTSA won the conference last season and along the way picked up a crazy 34-31 win (at home) over UAB with the game-winning touchdown coming in the final minute on a tipped pass. Previous to that, the Roadrunners had lost four straight times to the Blazers. They have never won here in Birmingham.
Heading into November, UTSA is sitting pretty atop the C-USA standings. They are the only team without a conference loss. UAB is just 2-3 in league play as a number of extenuating circumstances have gone against them.
With QB Dylan Hopkins sidelined with a concussion, UAB has lost two in a row. They still should have beaten Western Kentucky (lost 20-17) and then outgained Florida Atlantic in a 24-17 defeat. Yet they could very well go off as a favorite here, just as they have been for every game this season.
Hopkins is questionable for Saturday, which would mean Jacob Zeno under center again. That combined with the fact UTSA is coming off a bye will lead many to believe the Roadrunners are the “right” side here. I disagree. UAB’s offense should be able to move the ball effectively, no matter who the QB is. I like RB DeWayne McBride (#1 in the nation in yards per game) a lot. The Blazers’ defense will be the best UTSA has seen this season, besides Texas. UAB is a very unfortunate 0-4 in one-score games this season. No team in the country has fallen further short of their postgame expected win total. UTSA on the other hand is 3-1 in one-score games including 31-27 over North Texas two weeks ago. I think this is a get right game for UAB, who is a perfect 11-0 ATS at home when off a loss. 10* | |||||||
11-04-22 | Oregon State +4.5 v. Washington | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Oregon State comes into Friday night ranked #23 in the country, but is a short underdog on the road to unranked Washington. Last season, the Beavers snapped a nine-game losing streak to the Huskies, winning 27-24 as 2.5-point favorites. Now they go for their first win in Seattle since 2008.
OSU opened 2022 with three straight wins and covers. But then they fell to both USC and Utah. No shame there as those are two of the 15 best teams in America. Since then, the Beavers have rallied for a second three-game win streak, albeit against Stanford, Washington State and Colorado.
Washington opened the season at 4-0 and was ranked in Top 25. They are also now 6-2 with the losses coming on the road to UCLA and Arizona State. The Huskies have been favored in every game. QB Michael Penix Jr leads the country in passing yards, but is likely to encounter some resistance here as OSU’s defense gives up only 230.6 passing yards/game.
Oregon State’s offense is #1 in the conference in yards per pass attempt and #3 in rushing. I don’t think they’ll have much trouble moving the ball against a Washington defense that has allowed three of its last four opponents to score 39 or more. Weather could be an issue here. But look for OSU to stop turning the ball over so much. They were -8 in TO’s in their two losses. Washington has forced just one turnover in its last four games. Take the points in a game where I've got the two teams rated pretty evenly. 10* | |||||||
11-04-22 | Sabres +1.5 v. Hurricanes | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
The Sabres are firing on all cylinders on offense, with 18 goals scored in their last 3 games, all victories. They are on the road and face a very good Hurricanes team fresh off an overtime victory against the Lightning. Maybe too fresh, as the Canes are playing the second half of a back to back. The Sabres lost both games against Carolina, but that was then.. This is a different Sabres club with an equal record to the Hurricanes. They are 2nd in league offense, 3-1 to date on the road, and have the edge in special teams. The odds-makers are slow in cottoning on to the Sabres, allowing for very favorable odds on Friday. A win wouldn’t surprise me, but I am wagering on the Sabres to at least keep this one close. Take Buffalo +1.5 | |||||||
11-03-22 | Eagles -13.5 v. Texans | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -116 | 44 h 23 m | Show |
The Eagles, 3rd in points scored this year, have beaten 4 teams by 12 or more points this season. The Texans have lost just once by more than Thursday's total points, but have yet to face a top 10 defense, let alone a team of the caliber of the Eagles. The Raiders and the Chargers put up 30+ points against Houston, but neither team has as complete an offense as the Eagles. Philadelphia does give up more rush yards and yards per attempt lately, their weakest spot on defense, but the Texans don't really have a run game. The Texans could have an opportunity to pressure Hurts as they are 19th and improving in sacks, but Hurts and Co. could just run the ball down the Texans' throats all evening if they wanted. the Texans gave up a whopping 314 rushing yards last week, and stand last in rush yards. The Eagles, really, should be able to pass or run at will, and will likely have a huge time of possession advantage. As long as they show up to play, the Eagles should win and cover under the light on TNF. | |||||||
11-02-22 | Grizzlies v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 111-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Once again, let’s take advantage of injury news and grab some value with an NBA underdog. Last night, it was Chicago getting it done for us with an outright win in Brooklyn. Tonight, Portland is going to be without Damian Lillard, but they are at home and I like them getting points vs. Memphis.
The Blazers did not have Lillard in the lineup last Friday, but still defeated the Houston Rockets by a score of 125-111. They’re well rested coming into Wednesday (four days off!) and are 5-1 SU on the season.
Memphis is just 4-3 with the wins coming over New York, Houston, Brooklyn and Sacramento. The Grizzlies have been beaten twice by Utah and got blown out (by 41 points) in Dallas.
Ja Morant is having a strong start for the Grizz, but the problem for the team has been defense. Memphis has given up 120 or more points in five of the seven games so far, resulting in the worst defensive rating in the league. They miss Jaren Jackson Jr. Desmond Bane is listed as questionable for tonight, though I expect him to play. Yes, Memphis will be motivated by the back to back losses to Utah. Bettors will be tempted to lay a small number with a favorite hoping to avoid a three-game losing streak. But Portland has the best record in the Western Conference and, when rested, can get the job done as a home dog. They beat the Grizzlies in three of the four regular season meetings last year. Take the points. | |||||||
11-01-22 | Bulls +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
The Nets have been a disaster at the betting window thus far, failing to cover in five straight and coming into Tuesday with a 1-6 ATS record on the season. This will be the second night of a back to back for them. Last night saw them defeat the Pacers 116-109 but just miss out on covering as 7.5-point favorites.
Meanwhile, after dropping both games of a back to back, the Bulls have had two days to prepare for this game. They are potentially going to be short-handed though with LaVine, Dosunmu and White all listed as questionable. That’s in addition to both Drummond and Ball still being out.
But DeMar DeRozan will still be in the Bulls’ lineup and I think there’s still enough of a supporting cast around him (Vucevic, Caruso, Dragic) to get the job done. Certainly, Chicago should see improvement at the offensive end as the Nets can’t stop anybody right now. Brooklyn is third worst in the league in points allowed coming into Tuesday, giving up 120.3 per game. Last night’s win aside, the Nets just haven’t been very good so far this season. Them laying a short number at home in the second night of a back to back just feels like the oddsmakers are setting a trap. The Nets lack depth. This team is a horrible 13-37-1 ATS its last 51 home games. 8* | |||||||
10-31-22 | Bengals -3 v. Browns | Top | 13-32 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
The Bengals offense is sizzling, showing huge improvement in their recent games. They put up mammoth yards last week, and are top eight in points and Red zone offense, and top 2 in possession time and 3rd down conversions. While they are running more successfully and getting more points from the rush offense, It is their passing game, as expected that is carrying the team. Burrows has been a standout and isn't even sacked as often lately. In fact, using sack %, the Browns' QB Brissett has been sacked just as often in recent games. | |||||||
10-30-22 | Nuggets -3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
The Lakers stink. But because they are the Lakers and NBA’s lone remaining winless team, there are going to be bettors who want to keep playing them. I am here to tell you NOT to make that mistake!
Not only are the Lakers 0-5 straight up, but they are also 0-5 against the spread. They have been an underdog in four of those games and tonight will be their fifth time catching points. No team is worse when it comes to shooting from behind the three-point line. In fact, the Lakers’ current 28.3 3PT FG% would be sixth worst in league history over a single season.
Anthony Davis did not play on Friday when LA lost to Minnesota 111-102. He is hopeful to return this evening. Won’t matter though, Denver is simply the superior basketball team here.
The Nuggets have won four of five since a season-opening loss at Utah. The last time they lost, they led at half before falling apart down the stretch. By the way, Denver has already beaten the Lakers once this year, 110-99, and did so without the services of Michael Porter Jr (who is likely to play tonight). The Lakers are the worst offensive team in the league and just don’t have the firepower to stick with a team like Denver, who has averaged over 117 points in its last five games. Lay the points. 10* | |||||||
10-30-22 | Commanders +3 v. Colts | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 39 h 23 m | Show |
The Colts are on the road and facing an improved Commanders team off a big win last week. Neither team puts many points on the board, and neither team gives up many against. Both defenses are top ten in applying pressure on passers, and almost equally bad in protecting their own QBs. The Commanders have a pair of accomplished and complementary RBs, and are using them more each week. The Colts have a recovering Jonathon Taylor, who has been seriously under-used when playing to date. For whatever reason, the Colts are in the cellar in rushing categories, but that may change this week. With a young QB who has yet to throw a pass in the NFL, the run game will likely be a huge part of the Colts offense on Sunday. | |||||||
10-30-22 | Titans +1 v. Texans | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
It is all about the run on both sides of the ball for the Titans. King Henry is most of the offense, but Tennessee isn't even close to having the best running stats. The Titans run a very efficient offense, scoring more points with less yards. Tannehill is out, and while he doesn't put up huge numbers, he has been accurate, effective and doesn't make many mistakes. It remains to be seen how much the inclusion of Willis will affect the Titans' offense management. Willis will bring his own abilities. He can run effectively, adding to an otherwise one-dimensional run offense. | |||||||
10-30-22 | Bears +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 29-49 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
So far this season the Cowboys' success is largely defense-driven. That may change with Prescott back, but against a very tough Bears defense, I don't see Dallas as a huge scoring threat this week. For the Bears, their limited success is all about gaining on the ground and limiting the opposition's pass offense. The Bears have the most rushing yards in the league; their pair of running backs and a mobile QB in Fields put up a mighty 240 plus yards against the Patriots last week. The Cowboys can also run the football, but will likely miss key performer Elliott to injury this week. | |||||||
10-29-22 | Missouri +3.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
South Carolina is now ranked after wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M. Kentucky did not have its starting quarterback and A&M got itself into an early 17-0 hole. But even after being up three scores just a couple minutes into the game, the Gamecocks could not pull away last week. They were outgained by more than 100 yards.
Missouri should have won at Florida and Auburn. They stayed within four points of Georgia. Last week saw them finally break back into the win column, beating Vanderbilt 17-14. As 14-point favorites in that game, the TIgers obviously didn’t cover. But now we’re getting them as underdogs.
There’s a lot to like about the Mizzou defense. Over the previous five games, they’ve allowed less than 100 points. No one has scored more than 26.
The last three times these teams played, Missouri has gone 3-0 SU and ATS. They went off as the favorite each time. This will be the first time South Carolina has been favored over Missouri since 2016. An obvious letdown spot for the Gamecocks after their first ever win over Texas A&M. They are 1-5 ATS L6 and 0-3 L3 as a ranked team. Missouri is better than its record and its defense can keep SC (just 286 yards last week) in check. Grab the points. | |||||||
10-29-22 | Oregon v. California +17.5 | Top | 42-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
California has been very good as an underdog under Justin Wilcox. The Bears have covered 17 of the 20 times they’ve gotten 7 points or more from the oddsmakers. Overall, Wilcox boasts a 23-9-1 ATS record when catching points. He’s won 13 of those games outright, covered four straight times as a home dog and three straight times as a double digit dog.
His team covered last week as a dog, only losing by 7 to Washington. That was also here in Berkeley. Earlier in the day, Oregon posted its signature win of the season, holding off UCLA 45-30 in Eugene. Does that result make this a bit of a letdown spot for the Ducks? Probably.
Cal has lost three straight and four of five. But only one of those losses was by greater than seven points.
Oregon’s pass defense also isn’t great. You may not have noticed with all the points the offense has put up. But I expect Cal to put a decent number of points on the board. In two previous road games, the Ducks allowed a combined 63 points. They lost their last trip into Berkeley (back in 2020). The Cal defense is not bad! They held Washington without a touchdown for two-and-a-half quarters last week. Grab the points. | |||||||
10-29-22 | Charlotte +16.5 v. Rice | Top | 56-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Rice had a 5-game ATS win streak snapped last week. They still won the game, 42-41 at Louisiana Tech, but were 2.5-point favorites. It was the first time all season that the Owls were favored to defeat a FBS opponent. Yet surprisingly, they come into this game with Charlotte sporting a 4-3 SU record.
Now the Owls are favored again, only this time by three scores. If you can’t remember the last time Rice was a favorite of this size, let me help you out. It was last year against Texas Southern. They were -34 and only won 48-34. Before that, it was the 2018 season opener against Prairie View A&M. They were -19 and won just 31-28. It’s been a very long time since a Rice team was a favorite of this size over a non-FCS team.
So who is Rice playing this week? That would be Charlotte, who is coming off a loss to FIU that got their head coach fired. The 49ers were actually a double digit favorite last week (-14) but turned it over five times in the 34-15 loss. You can’t say a lot of positive things about this Charlotte team. But they do bring the element of surprise with a new head coach into this game.
Recently, we’ve seen several schools turn in inspired efforts following a coaching change. Arizona State, Georgia Tech, Colorado and WIsconsin all won their first games. All but Wisconsin were underdogs. But at the end of the day, this is a clear fade on Rice. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points against anybody. Not even Charlotte. | |||||||
10-29-22 | Notre Dame +2 v. Syracuse | Top | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
This is a rough spot for Syracuse, who last week suffered their first loss of the season (at Clemson) and also probably saw their ACC Championship hopes go out the window as well.
The Orange had been favored in five of their first six games. But still it was a surprise to see them 6-0 and ranked #14 in the country heading into Death Valley last week It was a close game they ended up losing 27-21, but it seems pertinent to mention that ‘Cuse got outgained 450-291 and was -10 in first downs. If not for four Clemson turnovers, it probably wouldn’t have been much of a game.
Notre Dame started the year ranked in the Top 5. However, three losses have them out of the Top 25 entirely. The Fighting Irish are the only team in the country to lose two different games as a double digit favorite (Marshall, Stanford). Their other loss came in the opener at Ohio State. Nothing wrong with that one. The Irish even led 10-7 at the half in Columbus. It was a four-point game late into the fourth quarter.
In terms of margin of victory, last week was Notre Dame’s biggest win of the season. They beat UNLV 44-21. But they didn't cover the 26-point spread. Now as an underdog though, they are worth backing. The Fighting Irish are 12-3 ATS the last 15 games against Top 25 opponents, including 2-0 this season. Wins over North Carolina and BYU were more impressive than they look, just judging from the final score. This will be the first time these teams have played since 2003. I expect ND to run the ball effectively. Since the start of 2020, no team in the country has a better ATS road record than the Fighting Irish, who are 8-2. They have covered each of the last three times as a road underdog. 10* | |||||||
10-29-22 | TCU v. West Virginia +7.5 | Top | 41-31 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
TCU lucked out with Kansas State having to use three different quarterbacks last week. At home, the Horned Frogs battled back from a 28-10 deficit to get the win and cover as 3.5-point chalk. But this is going to be the sixth straight Saturday TCU has been on the field. Four of the previous five have been close. Can they stay undefeated? Possibly. But I don’t like them laying this many points in Morgantown.
West Virginia, the last time they played in Morgantown, beat Baylor 43-40. That’s the only time they’ve played at Neyland Stadium since mid-September. This will be the first Saturday game in Morgantown since 9/17. Things got bad in a 38-10 loss last week at Texas Tech. But I believe that sets us up to get a great value here on the Mountaineers.
I know that the WVU defense isn’t great. But TCU’s offense is coming off a stretch of five games where they had to come from behind to win three different times. They are just the second team since 1996 to come back from a 17-point deficit in consecutive weeks against Top 25 opponents. Plus, I’ve got to mention all the backup quarterbacks the Horned Frogs have gotten to face. Each of their last four games have seen the opponents’ starting QB get injured! Sonny Dykes has traditionally not fared well when his teams are ranked, on the road and facing an unranked opponent. He is only 1-10 ATS in that spot. West Virginia is on a 4-1 ATS run vs. Top 25 teams. TCU has also lost the last four meetings to WVU and failed to cover six straight. | |||||||
10-28-22 | Pelicans v. Suns -7 | Top | 111-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
New Orleans was kind to me in their last game as they pulled off the upset, beating Dallas 113-111 as five-point home underdogs. They did so without three starters - Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and Herbert Jones.
Ingram is already listed as being OUT for Friday while the other two (Williamson, Jones) are questionable to play. A fourth starter, CJ McCollum, is also listed as questionable.
Going on the road to face Phoenix, who had the league’s best record last season (including a league-high 32 wins at home), I don’t expect the banged up Pelicans to have the kind of success they had at home Tuesday night.
The Suns, like the Pelicans, are 3-1 with the one loss being a one-possession game. But they just throttled both the Clippers and Warriors, beating those two by a combined 46 points! The Suns are in peak form right now and healthy, so look for them to take care of the wounded Pelicans. These teams met in the first round of the playoffs last season. Phoenix won the series in six games. With the starting five for New Orleans so banged up, this line definitely looks to be a little “short.” 10* | |||||||
10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a tough trip for East Carolina, heading West for a non-conference game. The last two weeks have seen the Pirates win a 4 OT game over Memphis and then clobber Central Florida. This will be the Pirates’ ninth straight game without a bye. How much are they going to have left in the tank? BYU, on the other hand, is desperate for a win. They have lost four of their six games and just got embarrassed 41-14 at Liberty. They have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive contests. By virtue of being an independent, BYU plays a tough schedule. So far they have faced Baylor, Oregon, Notre Dame and Arkansas. ECU has played only one P5 team and that resulted in a one-point home loss to NC State. Because of Hurricane Ian rescheduling a game vs. USF, East Carolina has only had to play one true road game thus far. They lost it, 24-9 at Tulane. Don’t discount the high altitude at Provo as being a major factor tonight, in addition to this being a much further trip West than usual for the Pirates. Friday night would also seem to be an advantage for the home team. BYU is 5-0 ATS its last five Friday night contests while East Carolina is 1-9 ATS its previous 10. Lay the short number with the desperate home team. The Cougars need this one if they are to become bowl eligible. 10* | |||||||
10-27-22 | Ravens +1.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
The Bucs may be playing at home, but after their recent performances, the reception may not be all that warm. There is a lot of fault finding going on and much of it is directed towards Brady. He certainly hasn’t stood out in recent games, this against pass defenses no better than the Ravens’. Considering how well protected he is, his stats are far from outstanding. While the Bucs are 6th in pass yards, their yards per attempt and per completion are well down in the leagues’ 20th rank. Brady has an average passer rating of just 87 in the last three games. Tampa Bay has no run game to speak of; they’ve only run on 21% of their plays L3, and are last in rushing yards and yards/attempt. Did I mention they are 26th in points scored? As for the Ravens’ offense, they are 6th in points scored, and solid in converting third downs. While Jackson’s pass numbers are nothing special, he and the Baltimore backs have run very successfully. And while the offense is definitely run-first, the Ravens at least have a pass attack, decent in yards per attempt and completion, if low in total yards. On defense, the Buccaneers are still 6th in pass yards allowed but have seen a regression in many defensive categories. They have been relatively easy to run on, horrible defending in the red zone, and seen points allowed climb to a high of 21 against the Panthers last week. Their Qb pressure figures have been good this season, but they managed only 1 sack last week. As the Bucs’ defense has sunk, there has been a definite improvement in The Ravens’ defense in their last three games, especially in the red zone and in Qb pressure (5 sacks last week and an average of 4 L3 games). The are strong against the run should Tampa make the effort, and improving in pass defense. I don’t foresee a huge improvement in the Buccaneers’ fortunes this week. The ravens’ offense does not match up well against the Buccaneers’ strengths. Both teams have injuries but Tampa really drew the short straw as far as missing starters goes. Gone too is some of that Buccaneers’ mystique. Losing to two of the worst teams back to back, a sullen and ineffective Brady, and nowevery opposing team out to kick them while they are down, doesn’t bode well for the near future. They say bad things come in threes. Look for another poor game from the Bucs. Take the Ravens on Thursday on Thursday night. | |||||||
10-27-22 | Mavs -2.5 v. Nets | Top | 129-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Brooklyn is now 1-3 straight up and against the spread after losing 110-99 last night in Milwaukee. That result worked for me as I had the Under (233), making it a 24-point winner on this end. The Nets were not so fortunate as their second-half defensive woes continued. This team was outscored 67-44 in the 2H by the Bucks, blowing a 12-point lead in the process. That came on the heels of another terrible 2H performance in Memphis Monday night where the Nets gave up 70 points after the break and lost by 10. Notable is that the Grizzlies’ Desmond Bane and the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo both scored the majority of their points in the 2H. Of the 81 points those two players scored against the Nets, 66 came after the break. So don’t be surprised if the Mavs’ Luka Doncic is able to pour it on late tonight. Not even 37 points from both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving was enough for the Nets last night. Durant struggled against double teams the last time he faced Dallas, getting held to 23 points on 8 of 20 shooting. Irving did not play in that game (due to the vaccine mandate at the time) but his presence here may not be enough to turn the tide, considering 74 points from the Nets’ top two players was not enough against Milwaukee. Dallas is 1-2 on the year, but should probably be 3-0 as they blew fourth quarter leads in both losses. They had a 22-point lead against Phoenix in the opening game while the Pelicans (another winner for me) hot shooting (57.9%) was too much to overcome Tuesday. Playing in the second night of a back to back, Brooklyn won’t shoot as well as New Orleans did against the Mavericks. This is the first back to back for the Nets this season. They are 11-17 ATS in this situation the previous two seasons and have already given up 130 or more points twice to start 2022-23. The Mavs are 5-2 SU the last 7 meetings with the Nets and are the better team right now. 10* | |||||||
10-25-22 | Mavs v. Pelicans +4.5 | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
I’m going to go ahead and assume Zion Williamson (bruised him) plays tonight. Now the Pelicans are banged up beyond Williamson as Brandon Ingram is in concussion protocol while Herbert Jones hyperextended his knee. But CJ McCollum is more than ready to go and you can look for New Orleans to cover the spread at home tonight.
With McCollum leading the way, New Orleans erased all of a 17-point fourth quarter deficit against the Jazz Saturday night. Eventually, the Pelicans went down in overtime, their first loss of the season. I had them plus the points against Brooklyn in the season opener and then they also beat Charlotte 124-112 for a 2-0 start.
Dallas probably feels it should be 2-0 as they let a 22-point lead slip away in their season opener against Phoenix. The Mavericks then got off to another great start against Memphis on Saturday, but this time didn’t allow their opponents back in it. The Mavs won 137-96. With or without Williamson, I look for the Pelicans to control the paint in this matchup. They did not trail at any point in the first two games of the season. 10* | |||||||
10-24-22 | Nuggets -5 v. Blazers | Top | 110-135 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Portland was pretty atrocious down the stretch last season, losing its last 11 games. But with a healthy Damian Lillard back in the lineup they have started the 2022-23 season with three consecutive wins and covers. I don’t like their chances tonight though, in the second night of a back to back, hosting Denver. The Nuggets had a disappointing loss at Utah to open the season, but have since rallied to beat Golden State and Oklahoma City to make it a 2-1 SU start. Laying nine points, they failed to cover against the Thunder, winning just 122-117. That was the second night of a back to back though and the team still shot 52.6% from three-point range. The final score against the Warriors was a bit misleading as well. Denver led that game virtually the whole way and was up 18 at halftime. They maintained a double digit lead through the third quarter before Golden State made a late run. Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic has turned in back to back triple doubles for the Nuggets, who are also now getting key contributions from Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr, both of whom missed the entirety of last season due to injuries. This is simply a great spot to fade Portland as they are off an emotional win over the Lakers last night where they trailed by seven with under two minutes left. Lay the points. 10* | |||||||
10-23-22 | Jets -1 v. Broncos | Top | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
The Broncos, the NFL's whipping boys, face the surprising young Jets at home this week. Fresh off a big victory against the Packers, the Jets are a much improved club, not just since last year, but since the beginning of the season. They have put close to double the points on the board than the Broncos over the last three weeks, and allowed less. NY is 8th vs 30th on offense in the red zone. Their run game has improved dramatically this season. Their defense over the last three weeks has been a match to a tough Broncos' defense, stronger against the run, and improving against the pass. | |||||||
10-23-22 | Lions v. Cowboys -6.5 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 58 m | Show |
The Week seven matchup between Detroit and Dallas features the return of Dak Prescott. Rush was an indifferent fill in, and while the Cowboys stepped up their run game, they have struggled to score points, depending on a very tough defense for their present 4-2 record. They gave up 26 points against the Eagles, but are otherwise close to the top in points allowed. They have been reasonably tough to run against, but are very hard on the pass, limiting yards and yds/attempt. They have tenacious skills in pressuring the passer and sport an avg. opposing QB rating of just 78. | |||||||
10-23-22 | Packers v. Commanders +5.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
The Commanders are off a rare win, and with Wentz out, have a capable and more mobile replacement in Heinecke. Neither of these two teams put up a lot of points. Washington is 29th, and has averaged just 13 points L3. The Commmanders’ defense has limited teams to 17 points on average, getting good results with strong passer pressure figures and tough red line defense. They have developed their rush attack, running more often and with better success, but haven’t been able to protect their own passer, have a high number of turnovers, and a low passer rating. Even with Rodgers at the helm, the Packers are not getting the job done on offense. They are still pass -centric, but Rodger’s targets are not of the usual Green Bay standard, and will be in short supply due to injury today. It has been more peckers than Packers, in the bird sense of the word. They are 27th in yards/completion, and middle of the pack in passing yards, low for a pass first offense. Rodgers has been sacked about as often as anyone, and the Packers turn the ball over an unacceptable number of times. The Packers have the league’s top pas defense, severely limiting yards, and with a sack % of 9.5. This could be more of a run-first game today, the Packers by necessity and the Commanders by design. It is hard to be bullish on this year’s Commanders, but I like their chances today. They will be very tough on a weak Packers’ O line, limiting points again. Take the Commanders with the points today | |||||||
10-22-22 | Mississippi State +21.5 v. Alabama | Top | 6-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
You’ve all heard how much trouble Mississippi State has had scoring on Alabama in the past. Over the last 10 meetings, the Bulldogs have been held to single digits (9 pts or less) eight different times by the Crimson Tide defense. The most points MSU scored in any of those games was 24.
But this isn’t the same Mississippi State offense nor is it the same Alabama defense. The Crimson Tide are wounded right now after losing 52-49 at Tennessee last week. MSU comes in averaging 35.4 points per game.
The Bulldogs also arrive in Tuscaloosa off a loss, 23-13 at Kentucky last week. But in each of the previous three games, they had scored 40 or more. In all five wins this season, they’ve scored at least 39. The two losses have been a different story, but with a generous spread this week, we’re not likely to need a 40-point effort to cover.
Alabama has already been in three games that came down to the final possession, all of them decided by four points or less. Then there’s this stat: Nine of Bama’s last 15 SEC games have been decided by single digits. That’s after the previous 53 saw just 9 such games. Saban is being overvalued off a loss here because of what he has done in the past. These teams are a closer than the spread would indicate. I’ve got the underdog comfortably staying within three touchdowns. 10* | |||||||
10-22-22 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
Game Three in NY should be the Yankees' best opportunity to win a game, but that is not to say it is guaranteed to happen. It says much about the Astros' pitching staff that Javier was left out of the post season starting rotation. He was a phenom down the stretch and pitched extremely well vs. The Yankees this year. This will be his first post season start, but he threw 11 innings of solid relief in the 2021 post season, plus an unimpressive inning earlier this year. | |||||||
10-22-22 | Cincinnati v. SMU +3.5 | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 0 m | Show |
Cincinnati is 5-1 all-time vs. SMU and has won all three meetings here in Dallas. With those six games averaging just 53 points, the Under is a perfect 6-0. Because of injuries, this could be another low-scoring affair between these teams. But despite being off a bye, Cincinnati, who became the first ever “Group of Five” team to make the College Football Playoff last January, is far more banged up than SMU is entering Saturday. QB Bryant is dealing with a concussion and may not play. WR Scott is also injured. RB Corey Kiner missed the last game and on the defensive side, LB Pace was “dinged up” after facing USF. Now after a season-opening loss at Arkansas, the Bearcats have climbed back into the Top 25 with five consecutive victories. But while four of those have come by double-digits, they’ve been far from dominant. In each of the last two games, the Cincy defense has needed a fourth down stop, deep in their own territory, to hold on for the victory. Against USF, who isn’t a good team, the Bearcats were actually trailing in the 4th quarter as a 26.5-point favorite. They were also able to pull away late against Indiana and Miami OH, the latter playing with a backup QB, in games that were closer than the final scores indicated. Meanwhile, SMU suffered the ultimate “backdoor cover” last Friday against Navy, allowing a TD with just nine seconds left. The Mustangs still won mind you, 40-34, but as 12.5-point favorites it marked the fifth straight game where they failed to cover. The fact Cincinnati is off a bye means less with SMU having an extra day to prepare as well. The Bearcats have been very lucky so far in that their opponents are a FBS-worst 1 for 11 on fourth down attempts. SMU’s opponents are 11 of 18 on 4th down attempts. That “luck” is probably due to change. Remember that Cincinnati lost three defensive backs from last year’s CFP squad to the NFL. SMU QB Mordecai is 11th in the FBS in passing yards and should exploit this secondary with or without WR Rice (missed practice on Wednesday). Finally, Luke Fickell is just 7-12-1 on the road vs. fellow AAC teams. That includes 3-10 ATS as a favorite. Take the points. 10* | |||||||
10-21-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The Celtics put all the distractions surrounding Ime Udoka behind them and won on Opening Night, defeating the 76ers 126-117 as a five-point favorite. They shot 56.1% from the field and got 35 point games from both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. It was a very nice start to the season for the reigning Eastern Conference Champs. Can’t say the same for Miami, however, as the Heat were beaten 116-108 by a Chicago team that was a 7.5-point underdog. The thing is, Miami didn’t even play that poorly, aside from committing 19 turnovers. They just had no answer for DeMar DeRozan. Now they are set to face a much tougher opponent. Even at home, this short number is not enough for me to be interested in the Heat. Will Boston shoot as well as it did in the opener? Maybe not, but I still expect them to win this game. So I’m laying the points. These teams played a seven-game series in the Eastern Conference Finals back in May. The Celtics have covered the number in five of their last six visits to Miami. Malcolm Brogdon showed he can be a nice third scoring option for Boston as he went for 16 in the opener. The Celtics also did a good job defensively in the second half, limiting the 76ers to only 54 points. Miami will only go as far as Jimmy Butler carries them. Kyle Lowry was a no-show in the first game, shooting 1 of 7 including 0 of 5 from three. 10* | |||||||
10-21-22 | Tulsa v. Temple +13.5 | Top | 27-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Temple was flat out embarrassed last Thursday night, losing at UCF by a score of 70-13. To say that was a shockingly bad performance by the Owls defense might be the understatement of the century. Consider that in the first five games, they’d surrendered less than 15 points/game! Luckily for this week, Temple faces a far less potent offense. Tulsa also got its doors blown off in its last game, losing at Navy 53-21. It was the third straight loss for the Golden Hurricane, whose only FBS win this season has been by three points over Northern Illinois. The Tulsa defense lost a lot from a season ago, namely nine starters and the coordinator. So it’s not a surprise to see them struggling on that side of the ball. As for Temple, I’m expecting a big bounce back from their previously stout defensive unit, which had been Top 15 in the country in yards per play allowed. Now, led by QB EJ Warner (the son of Kurt), the Temple offense has been shaky to say the least. But Tulsa would have scored far fewer points themselves this season if not for tremendous red zone efficiency. Moving forward, the Golden Hurricane probably won’t be able to continue scoring TDs inside the 20 at the same rate they have been. I just don’t think that Tulsa is the kind of team that can cover a spread like this on the road. They are 0-3 ATS as favorites vs. FBS teams this season with two outright losses. Temple has the better ATS record on Friday nights through the years and is being undervalued in this spot because of the blowout loss it suffered last week. Take the points. 9* | |||||||
10-20-22 | Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
The Saints and Cardinals, a pair of 2-4 underachievers, meet in Arizona in week 7. The Cardinals’ inability to score against a normally weak Seahawks defense last week was a bit of a surprise, although they are just 22nd in points scored, but no Tds against Seattle? The Saints put up 39 the week before. The Cardinals get Hopkins back, but lose Brown at the same time. Murray’s passer rating has averaged in the 80s and hit 64 last week. He did run well, but overall the Cardinals rush attack is exactly average. The Saint have not struggled to score points this year, it is preventing them that has been the problem, with the 29th points allowed so far this season. This from a team defense that was expected to be top ten this year. The Saints don’t pressure passers much, but have had 13 sacks to date, and they got to Burrows 3 times last week. Arizona has struggled to protect Murray in the last three games, culminating in a 6 sack game in week 6. The Saints will need to be tougher on him and cause a few turnovers; those have been few a nd far between. The Saints put up monster numbers with the run last week. Kamara has been hot but he isn’t their only option. They would be wise to stick to the running game. The pass attack was very poor last week. It is still unknown who will start on Thursday, but it probably won’t make that much difference. The Cardinals have struggled at home, and far more resemble the late 2021 team than the early one. Hopkins is a gain but is not going to be a one-person savior of the Cardinals’ problem offense. The Saints still have injury issues on offense but have managed to put up points anyway. Look for them to win or keep this game close. Take the Saints +1 ½. | |||||||
10-20-22 | Bucks v. 76ers -4 | Top | 90-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
The 76ers lost by nine up in Boston Tuesday, 126-117. They got solid contributions from James Harden and Joel Embiid, who combined for 61 points and 23 rebounds. Harden also had seven assists and went 12 for 12 from the FT line. But the rest of the team was “persona non grata” as the bench produced only 11 points.
At home, we should expect a far greater contribution from the Sixers’ supporting cast. Looking back, it was basically one bad quarter (the third) that did the team in against Boston. They outscored the Celtics (by one point) over the other three quarters.
This will be Milwaukee’s first game after going 0-5 in the preseason. Kris Middleton, their second best player, is out. That puts added pressure on Giannis Antetokounmpo. It wouldn’t be unlike the former MVP to step up, but he can’t do it all by himself and this is one of the top teams from the East that the Bucks are facing tonight.
Tuesday night saw Philadelphia get outscored on fastbreak points 24-2. That will not happen again. I also expect a better defensive effort after allowing the Celtics to shoot 56% from the floor. 10* The Sixers have been very good at home the last two seasons, winning 61 of 90 games. Most of that is without Harden. Right now, they are a deeper (and better) team than the Bucks. Lay the points. 10* | |||||||
10-19-22 | Pelicans +3.5 v. Nets | Top | 130-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
New Orleans got off to a horrible start last year, but quickly turned things around and even earned the 8-seed by virtue of winning two games in the Play-In Tournament. They did so despite not getting a single game out of Zion Williamson, who is now back healthy and ready to start the 2022-23 campaign. Brooklyn’s playoff stay was actually shorter than that of the Pelicans. The Nets were swept in the first round by Boston, ending a very disappointing run which saw Kyrie Irving miss a number of games. Kevin Durant wanted out in the offseason, but he and Irving are both set to return. So is Ben Simmons after an embarrassing end to the playoffs where he DNP in Game 4. I think things are going to get worse before they get better for Brooklyn. Durant wanted the coach and GM fired, but neither were and now everyone has to co-exist. We also don’t know how well Durant and Irving will play together. The Pelicans have a solid starting five with Williamson back as CJ McCollum was a huge acquisition for this team last year. New Orleans can definitely score. They averaged 116.7 points over their final 26 regular season games, making them all the more enticing as an underdog in this spot. Grab the points. 8* | |||||||
10-18-22 | Lakers +7 v. Warriors | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The Lakers are obviously a much different team with LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the lineup. Both will be ready to go Tuesday night in the series opener vs. Golden State. Thus I’m taking the points.
In the 108 regular season games that James and Davis have played together, the Lakers have gone 75-33 straight up, a win percentage of .690. Only the Suns had a win percentage higher than .690 last season.
While James and Davis should be happy to see one another tonight, I don’t know how the Warriors can possibly navigate the situation with Draymond Green and Jordan Poole. Additionally, coach Steve Kerr has openly questioned his own team’s conditioning. Yesterday he was quoted as saying the starters are not ready to play 30+ minutes. That’s troublesome.
We know that the Lakers won’t have Dennis Schroeder and Russell Westbrook may not play either. Still, plus the points, I believe they are the play. A motivated James and Davis should be enough to cover this spread. The Lakers massively underachieved last season and will be ready to play. Golden State is likely to be more concerned with the pregame ring ceremony and thus expect a flat start from them. 10* | |||||||
10-17-22 | Broncos v. Chargers -4.5 | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
A much healthier Chargers team meets a struggling Broncos side on MNF. Wilson is playing hurt and has not shown well to say the least, stumbling out of week five with an ugly 54 passer rating. The Broncos are 31st in points scored and 32nd in red zone scoring. They've put up some yards but haven't converted on third downs and have no finish. They are 26th in sacks allowed, including 4 last week. | |||||||
10-16-22 | Yankees v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
With the Dodgers and the Braves now out, can the Yankees be the next juggernaut to fail? The Guardians now have 2 kicks at the cat to win the series and are home in front of a delirious crowd today. The Yankees' Cole returns on 4 days' rest, off a fine 6 inning 1 run performance in Game one. He has done it all before, but has pitched past the 6th just once since August, and his ERA in the fifth and sixth innings is over 4.50. His ERA on the road is a half run worse than in Yankee stadium. The problem lies post-Cole as the Yankees bullpen is injured, weary and not what we have come to expect this year. Quantrill gave up 4 runs over 5 innings in Game one, but he was much better than that down the stretch. He is 9-0 at home this year, and is a good candidate to bounce back today. Game one was his first real appearance in the post season, and he can and will be on a shorter leash than Cole, with the Guardians' superlative bullpen behind him. The other advantage the Guardians have, beyond relief pitching, is coaching. There is no one better than Francona in the pressure-filled post season. Boone made some questionable decisions yesterday. | |||||||
10-16-22 | Bills -2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
The Bills face the Chiefs at Arrowhead coming in a 2.5 point favorite. Sure, it is Mahomes vs. Allen, two "pretty good" passers, but defense will decide this game, and on that note the Bills have a huge edge. Mahomes can maneuver his way out of most situations, but he may have his hands full on Sunday. A lot of the Chiefs' defense is just being on the field more than the opposition. While both pass defenses have solid pass pressure stats, the Bills do it with out blitzing much. Looking at other critical pass defense stats the Bills have a huge advantage, but none more explicit that opposing passer rating; the Bills are first with an avg. passer rating of 67, compared to KC's 105. Buffalo has given up the least points to date, while the Chiefs struggle to 24th. Rush defense stats for the Chiefs are curious. Nobody runs much against the Chiefs because they are usually playing catch-up. Last week the Raiders put up 155 yards, more than 70 over the Chiefs' average allowed. The Chiefs are 31st in defending the red zone at this moment. | |||||||
10-16-22 | 49ers -4 v. Falcons | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 58 m | Show |
The 49ers meet the run-happy Atlanta Falcons at home in week 6. The Falcons run more than just about anyone and have had some success this season. They are 4th in rushing yards, 8th in yards/attempt and 4th in rushing first downs. They'd better be good as it is the only game in town. The Falcons' pass attack is minimal; 30th in yards and completion %, with a 78 average passer rating. Mariota has been sacked 12 times, 5 last week alone, with as many picks as TDs to date. | |||||||
10-16-22 | West Ham United v. Southampton | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
A top seven finisher last season, West Ham United’s 2022/23 campaign got off to a rather sluggish start. But both a strong showing in the Europa Conference League and back to back Premier League wins seemingly have the Hammers back on track. They come into Sunday level with three other sides at 10 points in the middle of the table. Meanwhile, Southampton is in trouble. The Saints now find themselves in the relegation zone after four straight losses, three of which were to bottom half sides. They failed to score in three of those matches, including the most recent one, which was an ugly 4-0 defeat at the hands of Manchester United. It’s four straight wins in all competitions for West Ham, so these are very much two sides trending in opposite directions. Struggles are not new for Southampton as they’ve dropped 11 of 15 league games going back to the end of last year. Even with all three newly promoted sides struggling, it is going to be a challenge for the Saints to remain in the top flight next season. Additionally, West Ham will be eager to end a winless run against Southampton, which is now at three straight including last year’s FA Cup. The better side at this price is a steal. Just to be safe though, let’s play West Ham on the goal line (just so a draw would be a push). 10* | |||||||
10-15-22 | USC v. Utah -3.5 | Top | 42-43 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Going back to 2015, there have been 15 times where a team is 6-0 SU or better and getting points from a team with two or more losses. Those 15 teams have gone just 3-12 straight up. USC qualifies for the situation this week and, based on that history, I’m fading the Trojans in Salt Lake City. Utah has taken two tough losses, to Florida and UCLA. Both were games where the Utes were favored on the road. At home though, they’ve lost just once in the last 12 tries. This is still a very good football team and obviously one you should respect, based on them being favored here. USC has played a pretty light schedule so far with the only road games coming at Stanford and Oregon State. They were held to only 17 points and 359 total yards by Oregon State and were probably lucky to win that game. Even last week at the Coliseum, the 30-14 final over Washington State was a tad bit misleading. It was a three-point game deep into the third quarter but Wazzu’s special teams really betrayed them in that game. Tough to win at Rice-Eccles at night and I just don’t see Utah losing for a third time as a favorite. Turnovers were a real killer against UCLA, but I don’t see that being a problem here. The Utes also have a great secondary, something a team needs to beat USC. USC is just 3-12 ATS its last 15 games as a road underdog. That's the third worst in the FBS since 2015. Lay the points in this one. 9* | |||||||
10-15-22 | Clemson v. Florida State +3.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 40 m | Show |
Clemson is #5 in the country while FSU is unranked, but this smells like an outright upset to me. Florida State was 4-0 before losing to Wake Forest and NC State the last two weeks. The Seminoles actually owned the edge in yards per play in both games they lost and should have beaten NC State last week. A terrible decision by QB Travis to throw the ball into the end zone, while down two and in field goal range, resulted in an interception and cost the team the game. Though Clemson is ranked #5 in the country and a perennial power, this doesn’t feel like the same Tigers’ team we saw during all those runs to the College Football Playoff. Remember they needed overtime to win at Wake Forest. It was a one-score game with NC State two weeks ago. This sets up as a real “fade the public” type game as the majority of bets are on Clemson, but the number has come down (as of Thursday). Regardless of any further line movement, I’m backing the underdog here. FSU definitely should have won on the road last week. The chance to end a six-game losing streak to Clemson should have the ‘Noles extra fired up for this Saturday night home game. The defense has been every bit as good as Clemson’s this year while the offense is averaging a full yard per play more than the Tigers. Take the points. 10* | |||||||
10-15-22 | Oklahoma State +4 v. TCU | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 53 h 26 m | Show |
The Big 12’s two remaining unbeatens collide Saturday afternoon in Fort Worth as #15 TCU plays host to #7 Oklahoma State. My view is that the better team is getting points. Now TCU is playing at home and we have to respect that. But OSU has covered six straight conference road games and beat the Horned Frogs last season by a score of 63-17 (in Stillwater). Both teams were involved in close games last week. Oklahoma State ended up beating an aggressive Texas Tech team 41-31 while TCU outlasted Kansas on the road, 38-31. There’s probably going to be a lot of points scored in this one. But look for the Pokes to score more. The TCU defense has been pretty bad when it comes to allowing explosive plays and OSU QB Sanders is completing over 50% of his pass attempts of 20+ yards. This is a tougher spot for TCU, who goes from playing on the road (where ESPN College Gameday was present) to now playing its first ranked vs. ranked home game in five years. OSU is more accustomed to these games as they were on the cusp of the CFP last year and have averaged nine wins per season over the last decade for head coach Mike Gundy. I don’t think TCU should be the favorite here, even with homefield advantage. OK State is the better team and has gone 16-2 SU over its last 18 games with the two losses coming by a combined eight points. Gotta take the points here. 10* | |||||||
10-15-22 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -8.5 | Top | 42-52 | Win | 100 | 50 h 57 m | Show |
How the mighty have fallen! Oklahoma has lost three in a row for the first time since 1998 and they are 0-3 ATS in those three games, missing the spread by a combined 99 points! Rarely do we see a three-game stretch like that where the oddsmakers got it so wrong. So it may be surprising to some that OU is favored here over a Kansas team that was unbeaten going into last Saturday. But here me out, who would have ever thought the Sooners would be a single digit favorite in Norman against a team they’ve beaten 17 straight times? Oh, by the way, the Jayhawks just lost their starting QB. All of those 17 straight victories have been by double digits. The last seven times these teams have met, Oklahoma has been favored by at least 32 points. Now this is a better Kansas team than usual. But losing QB Daniels is a massive blow to their season. The Jayhawks’ defense also isn’t very good, having allowed a total of 148 points the last five games. Oklahoma expects to have its starting QB Dillon Gabriel back on the field Saturday. That’s a big plus as the offense clearly struggled without him. I think this is a “get right” game for the Sooners and will lay the points. 10* | |||||||
10-14-22 | Navy +12.5 v. SMU | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Navy is on a 3-0 ATS win streak coming into Friday, all of the covers coming as underdogs. Twice during that stretch, the Midshipmen have won outright. As a 17.5-point dog, they won at East Carolina 23-20. The following week saw them lose 13-10 at Air Force, but they got the cash as 14-point dogs. Last week saw the Middies double their season point total with a 53-21 beatdown of Tulsa in Annapolis. That was Navy’s highest scoring game since 2018. Now they head to SMU to face a Mustangs team that has lost three in a row and failed to cover four in a row. SMU was outscored 31-6 in the second half by Central Florida last week. Before that, there were losses to TCU and Maryland. As if things weren’t already bad enough, two players have decided to sit out the remainder of the 2022 season with the intention of hitting the transfer portal. These offenses are very different. We know what Navy likes to do as they are #1 in the country in rushing attempts per game. SMU prefers to “air it out” and leads the country in passing yards. I believe the key to this game will be Navy’s ability to keep the ball away from the SMU offense. The Mustangs defense has been unable to stop the run during the losing streak, giving up close to 200 rush yards per game. So how do you think they’ll fare against Navy? Too many points to pass up tonight. 10* | |||||||
10-13-22 | Washington Commanders v. Bears +1.5 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
Will it be one step forward and two steps back, or has Fields made a legitimate step as a developing QB? The Bears have been a run-first offense to date, but Fields had his first good start of the season vs the Vikings, with personal highs in passing yards, completion %, and a passer rating of 118. He also ran successfully. The Bears’ passing offense until last week left much to be desired. The run game was limited last week but has been a strength, fifth in the league in yards to date, with Herbert, Montgomery and Fields all as viable options. The Commanders’ offense is almost entirely about the pass; their run game is virtual nonexistent, which is a shame as the Bears struggle vs the run. Wentz threw for a ton of yards against the Titans last week, but results have been mixed in other games. He has been sacked 20 times this season and has thrown 6 interceptions to date, with just an 86 average passer rating. The Commanders’ defense is middle of the pack to date against the run, and poor against the pass. The two teams are roughly equal in QB pressure, although the Commanders have more sacks. Washington doesn’t force very many turnovers, with just 1 interception to date. Other than last week against Cousins, the Bears’ pass offense has been impressive; 5 interceptions to date, 9th in pass yards allowed while limiting opposing passers to an 82 passer rating this season. No one expected much of the Bears this year. They are undefeated at home, and for them it is definitely a case of the glass half full so far. More was expected of the Commanders, and there is turmoil around Wentz’s play in particular. Heads could roll if the Commanders lose this game. I am on the side of the young never-say-die Bears this week. Look for another home victory on TNF. 9*! | |||||||
10-13-22 | Baylor -3 v. West Virginia | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
There are five Big 12 teams currently ranked in the Top 25. Baylor isn’t one of them, but they should be and I like the Bears laying a short number Thursday night in Morgantown. Thus far, Baylor has taken a couple of tough losses at home, to BYU (overtime) and Oklahoma State. Those teams are a lot better than West Virginia, who may not even end up in a bowl this year as the Mountaineers are a solid candidate to finish last in the conference. The WVU defense has allowed 38 or more points to three of the four FBS teams that they’ve faced. They’ve allowed 43.7 points/game in the three losses. Virginia Tech, a horrible offensive team, was the only FBS offense that the Mountaineers have been able to keep in check. Baylor’s offense has been pretty good thus far, averaging 37.4 points/game. QB Shapen should have plenty of success through the air tonight against a bad WVU pass defense. Before running into OK State, the Bears’ defense had been getting the job done and I expect them to play well tonight. Baylor is 20-4-2 ATS off an ATS loss. 9* This is a big game for Baylor, who has yet to win in Morgantown (0-5 all-time). But there’s a first time for everything and considering the state of West Virginia football right now, this seems like an obvious time for the Bears to get their first ever win here. WVU will also be without its leading rusher due to a concussion. | |||||||
10-13-22 | Temple +23.5 v. Central Florida | Top | 13-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
You probably don't know this, but Temple has been surprisingly strong on the defensive side of the ball. They rank Top 10 in the country in yards per play allowed! I believe the defense will keep the Owls in this game vs. UCF until the very end, so take the points. If you only looked at the final score of Temple’s last game, you’d just assume they were dominated by Memphis as it ended up being a 24-3 loss. However, that’s not the case. The Owls shut Memphis out for more than a half with the first points allowed being a TD late in the third quarter. Two of Memphis’ TD drives began in Temple territory. So as long as Temple’s offense takes better care of the football this week, count on them not giving up many points to UCF. For the season, they are allowing just 16.8 points/game and the most they’ve allowed to any one opponent is 30. With that kind of defense, it’s pretty crazy that we are getting more than three touchdowns here. Now Temple’s offense is obviously not very good. But UCF was certainly struggling for a while there against SMU last week. The Golden Knights had just 10 points going into halftime before they caught fire coming out of the break. Despite winning 41-19, total yards were basically even in that game and SMU finished with seven more first downs. UCF is not just 0-4 ATS following their previous four ATS wins, but they are also 0-5 ATS following a straight up win by 20 or more points. This is a good spot to fade them against what has been a surprisingly excellent defense. 10* | |||||||
10-13-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -165 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
The big bats came through in game one of the Mariners and Astros match-up, hardly the tight pitching game that many expected. The Mariners haven’t had success in Houston and pin their hopes on Luis Castillo today. Left hander Valdez starts for the Astros. Valdez had a fine start against the Phillies in his last appearance but was hit hard in his previous two appearances, giving up more than a run an inning. Seattle has faced Valdez twice this season with modest success, scoring 6 runs, 3 in each game, over 11+ innings. Valdez is better on the road with an ERA of more than 1 run higher in Houston. He did not pitch well in the post season last year. | |||||||
10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall -10 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 34 m | Show |
It’s an interesting Sun Belt matchup that we’ve got midweek as underachieving Louisiana travels to face a Marshall team that’s 0-3 ATS since their upset of Notre Dame. I’m going to lay the points with the Thundering Herd.
Louisiana has lost three in a row, two of them as favorites. They were 11.5 point favorites in a 33-21 loss at Rice where the offense gained only 275 yards. The following week saw the Ragin Cajuns go to LA Monroe and lose as 9.5-point favorites, 21-17, this time getting outgained by 65 yards. Two Saturdays ago, the Cajuns did cover, as 8.5-point underdogs, but they still lost 20-17 at home to South Alabama.
Now it’s back on the road facing a Marshall team that has an 83-10 scoring edge at home. Now both previous visitors to Huntington were FCS teams. But the Thundering Herd did beat Notre Dame. Louisiana has topped 24 points in only one game this season. Marshall has allowed more than 21 just once.
This is a big revenge game for Marshall, who lost to Louisiana in the New Orleans Bowl last year, 36-21. This is a much worse Louisana team now though as Billy Napier left for Florida (the NO Bowl was the first game without him) and they had to replace half their starters, including QB, four OL and three LB. This is Marshall’s first year in the Sun Belt and they desperately want that first conference win after losing outright to Troy two games ago. The Herd have an excellent defense, one that shouldn’t give up many points to an anemic Louisiana offensive attack. The betting market seems to like the home team big and so do I. 10* Marshall | |||||||
10-12-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -177 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
The Phillies' ace Wheeler finished the season with a surge, then threw a fine 6 inning shut-out in his first taste of post season play. He has pitched very well against the Braves this season after facing them 3 times. His last appearance against them was a 7 inning 1 run gem. | |||||||
10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
If the Padres had success against the Mets this year, they haven't against the Dodgers. Nor are they great against left-handers. No one has had much success against Urias lately. He is 4-0 with an ERA of 1.52 in his last 7 starts. The entire pitching staff will be well rested, so post-Urias (he pitches usually for 5 or 6 innings), that killer LA bullpen should be ready to go. The Padres' right-hander Clevinger has had mixed results of late; 4 of his last 6 starts are of the poor variety, allowing more than a run an inning in those appearances. He was roughed up by the Dodgers twice in September. He gave up 7 home runs last month, and has an ERA nearly double on the road. | |||||||
10-11-22 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
The Mariners stunned the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Round, storming back from an early 8-1 deficit to take Game 2 by a score of 10-9 and thus sweep the series. But the Astros should prove to be a far greater challenge, particularly with Justin Verlander on the hill Tuesday.
Houston won 106 games and finished with the best record in the American League. They are overwhelming favorites to advance here and Verlander is an ideal choice to start Game 1, based on his Cy Young-worthy campaign where he posted a 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 29 starts.
The Astros went 12-7 against the Mariners in the regular season and that includes a 5-1 record when Verlander started. Five of those six starts from Verlander were quality. The one that wasn’t came in Seattle.
Like Verlander, Seattle’s Game 1 starter (Logan Gilbert) has done an excellent job at getting out of jams and stranding baserunners. However, Gilbert seemed to overachieve in the regular season as his FIP and xERA were higher than what you’d want to see. Righties hit him better than lefties and the Astros lineup is righty-heavy.
Verlander is simply too good to fade here and the Astros are 55-26 at home. I expect them to get out to an early lead against Gilbert and also note the Astros are 42-13 in day games. 9* | |||||||
10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Based on past results, a win should be in cards for the Chiefs today. Kansas City's offense is a different beast this year; equally competent, but much more time-consuming, with more short targets for Mahomes, and a well developed running game. The Chiefs have been great in the red zone, and with the exception of last week, Mahomes has had solid protection. Even against that tough Buccaneers pass offense, Mahomes was a wizard in avoidance, and had great success. At home at Arrowhead, and against another AFC West opponent, I like their chances. On defense, they have been great against the run, which is important against a Raiders' team who are having good success on the ground. The KC pass defense has given up yards, a ton of them facing Brady last week, but they have managed solid passer pressure, and are 7th in sacks, against a Raiders' O-line with mixed success. | |||||||
10-09-22 | Eagles -5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 6 m | Show |
The Eagles, looking for 5-0, are on the road facing the Cardinals. Murray and the Cardinals looked better in Week four, but face MUCH stiffer competition this week. The Cardinals losing 3 starters from their O-line to injury against the league’s toughest pass rush is hardly ideal. The Eagles are better in almost every offensive and defensive category when compared to the Cardinals, and any categories where the Eagles showed weakness (as in Week one points allowed) they have addressed. They have controlled play in their games, are very good in the Red zone on both sides of the ball, and have been adaptable. Facing a tough pass rush last week, the Eagles produced monster yardage with the run game. The most telling category for me is quarterback pressure. The Eagles, as noted, are first in sacks, and the Cardinals are 32nd. Allowing Hurts and Philadelphia’s very fine pass offense that kind of freedom is very dangerous. Against a stout Eagles defense, I don’t see Murray or the Arizona run offense having a comfortable game. Philadelphia at 6-0 seems like a distinct possibility. Take the Eagles to win and cover. | |||||||
10-09-22 | Cowboys +5.5 v. Rams | Top | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
The 3-1 Cowboys face the 2-2 Rams in LA, with the usual huge hooplah surrounding these two teams. Dallas is a 5 1/2 point underdog. Is this the week that Stafford starts to show his worth in 2022? Against a very tough Dallas pass defense, I have my doubts. The Rams are 29th in points scored, averaging less than the Cowboys sans Dak. Cooper Rush is 15 points higher in average QB rating, has been sacked just 4 times, and has yet to give up a pick. Stafford has been sacked 16 times and has 6 interceptions to date. Add to that an unwillingness to throw to more than 2 receivers. The Cowboys’ defense struggles against the run, but the Rams hardly have a running game, and are sitting 30th in rushing yards. The Cowboys are top five in QB pressure, and 2nd in fewest yards per pass attempt. It could be more of the same for Stafford this week, after being pushed around by the 49ers last week. The Rams’ O-line has multiple injury issues at the moment. Can the Dallas Cowboys offense produce points against the Rams? First off, they may not need that many. They have solid options at running back with Pollard and Elliott, averaging over 100yds a game. Rush now has a few games under his bet and has shown marked improvement. He threw for 223 yards and a 107 QB rating last week, not bad for a back up. There are flaws in this version of the Rams, and injuries aren’t helping. I am on the Cowboys and the Cowboys’ defense on Sunday. Take them at +5.5, although an outright win would not surprise me. 9*! | |||||||
10-08-22 | Oregon State v. Stanford +5 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
With Colorado State pulling an outright upset last night, there are only three teams left in College Football without an ATS win. Two reside out in the Pac 12. One of them is Stanford. I am taking the Cardinal plus the points at home in this late Saturday matchup.
Oregon State QB Chance Nolan is questionable to play here. The way he’s turned the ball over the last two games, perhaps the Beavers feel they’d be better off without him. In the losses to USC and Utah, OSU finished -8 in the turnover battle. Tough to win when that happens.
But when you’re Oregon State, it’s tough to win on the road, whether you are turning the ball over or not. The Beavers aren’t just 0-3 ATS as road chalk the last three seasons, they’ve lost all three games outright! And they are just 2-8 SU their L10 road games overall after getting beat 42-16 at Utah last week.
Stanford should not be confused with either USC or Utah, the two teams that beat OSU, but the Beavers aren’t USC, Washington and Oregon, who are the three teams that beat the Cardinal. That’s especially true if the road team has to turn to a backup QB. Eventually Stanford has to cover a spread, right? Going back to last year, it’s an inexplicable 0-10 ATS run. They are also due for some better turnover luck and sure enough here comes a team that’s given it away eight times in the last two games. Weird things happen in “Pac 12 After Dark” and I give the home team an excellent shot at pulling the outright upset here. 9* | |||||||
10-08-22 | Padres +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The Padres continued their season-long dominance of the Mets on Friday. I underestimated Darvish, based on his past play-off record, and lost yesterday. San Diego is a very good road team, and today’s starter is also a better pitcher on the road. Left-hander Snell had a strong finish this year, with a 1.76 ERA over his last 7 games, and just 1 run given up in his last three appearances. Snell has certainly been here before and has the opportunity to finally to come through for the Padres. | |||||||
10-08-22 | South Carolina +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Kentucky has a big question mark at quarterback as Will Levis (foot) is listed as a game-time decision. Regardless if Levis plays, I am taking South Carolina plus the points here.
The last time we saw Levis, he was coughing up two key fumbles in the red zone last week against Ole Miss. The Wildcats ended up suffering their first loss and the SEC schedule will only get tougher from here on out.
South Carolina seems revitalized after two straight 50+ point efforts. Granted, the competition was not tantamount to what they’ll face in the SEC. But the Gamecocks now have a lot of confidence heading into Lexington and are the healthier of these two teams.
Kentucky is not exactly the most impressive 4-1 team in the country to begin with and certainly not the 13th best team in the country. They had to come from behind to win at Florida, couldn’t shake Northern Illinois and even wins over Miami OH and Youngstown State weren’t as dominant as the final scores indicate. Now they may be without their starting QB. The way this line has been bet certainly tells me that Levis probably isn’t going to play. Either way, take the points with an improving South Carolina outfit. Don’t forget about their QB Spencer Rattler. When not facing Georgia, the Gamecocks have scored at least 30 in every game this season. 10* | |||||||
10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU +3 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
Tennessee arrives in Baton Rouge ranked #8 in the country and fresh off a bye. But the 4-0 Volunteers are about to face their toughest test to date in the form of a LSU team that is a missed extra point away from being 5-0. Since losing the opener to Florida State, Brian Kelly has really turned the Tigers around. Now should they have won last week at Auburn? Probably not! But picking up a big road win like that can do wonders for a team. QB Daniels is ready to go this week for LSU as is a defense that should offer plenty of resistance to Tennessee’s high-powered offense. Remember that the last time we saw the Vols, they barely escaped Florida, at home. It was a 38-33 final and UT gave up almost 600 yards. That wasn’t Tennessee’s first close call either. They only won at Pitt by seven and needed OT to do so. This is by no means an impervious outfit coming out of Knoxville, despite the presence of QB Hendon Hooker. Here in Baton Rouge, LSU has already beaten a very good Mississippi State team. That’s a better win than anything on Tennessee’s resume. The Vols don’t come here to Baton Rouge often (last visit was 2010) and haven’t beaten LSU in more than 15 years. LSU is 4-0 SU/ATS L4 hosting the SEC East. 8* | |||||||
10-06-22 | Colts v. Broncos -2.5 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -130 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
The 30th and 31st-best scoring offenses meet for the fifth week of Thursday Night Football. Injuries have compromised both teams' running games, Wilson is sore, and the Colts defense has take a pair of hits. Is Ryan starting to look more comfortable? He was better last week, but that was against arguably the worst team in pass defense. The Colts' offensive line has struggled and could be worse this week. Ryan has been sacked at the league maximum, with five interceptions and a ton of fumbles to date. The Broncos have been tough on passers; 5th in pass yards allowed, 2nd in passing TDs allowed, and with strong QB pressure, 6th in sacks. Their rush defense broke down inexplicably last week, but the Colts' rush attack has been surprisingly unimpressive to date, and now is missing Taylor. Wilson is a trooper, and looked much better last week, finishing with a very high passer rating. The Colts are not such a threat to pressure Wilson, and he is also far more mobile than Ryan. The Broncos at least have a plan B for a rush attack, and if anyone should be worried about fumbles, it is the Colts. A line of -3 is available for Denver, and anything under that is a bonus. I am on the Broncos to bounce back, win and cover. | |||||||
10-02-22 | Washington Commanders v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 10-25 | Win | 100 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
The Commanders, everyone’s latest whipping boys take on the Cowboys, already damned and redeemed this season. The Cowboys will likely start Cooper Rush again. Rush has been competent, if not at all spectacular, well protected by the Cowboys’ O-line, and has great receivers, including a returning Michael Gallup. Wentz has been a sitting duck behind an ineffective Washington O-line. Sacked as often as Burrows, no one has faced more QB pressure or the blitz than Wentz. Tough conditions to excel under. Sacked 9 times last week, the Commanders’ passing yards dropped by 100 yards from week two. Facing the Cowboys’ top of the line pass defense, it will likely be another long day for Wentz. Adding an indifferent run game, averaging just 86 yards a game, doesn’t aid the overall Commanders’ offense. The Dallas run defense has not been as effective, allowing 130+ yds an attempt and nearly 5 yds per carry. The Giants ran for 167 yards last week. The overall defense has been very effective, limiting teams to just 17+ points a game to date. The Cowboys have a pair of good running backs and a top 11 run game. The Commanders’ defense have not handled the run nor the pass well to date. Look for a good situation for Pollard and Elliott. It should also be Rush’s best opportunity for a breakthrough week. I see the Cowboys seriously limiting Wentz and the Commander’s offense, and scoring enough to both win and cover on Sunday. | |||||||
10-02-22 | Browns v. Falcons | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The Browns, a small favorite, face the 1-2 Falcons at home in week 4. Brissett has looked pretty sharp as a stand-in, with a healthy 10th rated QB ranking and a solid performance last week. He had 2 Tds, 0 interceptions and a 109 passer rating in week 3, not to mention a 74% completion rate in his last two games. Then there is Chubb, and don’t forget about Hunt, making a very tough 1-2 punch on the top running game in the league. The Browns’ offense have been the best in the league in time of possession, and they don’t turn the ball over very often. The Falcons have been turnover-prone to date. The Falcons have put up almost as many points as the Browns. Mariota had a solid game in week three, and has also run the ball well, but has been sacked more than average, and has already thrown 3 picks. The Falcons’ Patterson put up huge numbers on the run last week, and has been a surprise standout so far, but is questionable with a knee injury for week four. Other than Mariota, Patterson IS the Falcons running game. He is a huge loss if his play is compromised. All eyes were on the Browns’ defense after week two’s catastrophic ending. They played much better in week three, and have been tough against the run, although were a bit sloppy last week. They have also been tough on opposing passers, although injuries will play a role in that regard this Sunday. The Falcons defense is one of the worst in the league in a number of defensive categories, including points, total yards, and passing yards. They are just mid-pack in rushing categories, and while they are solid in QB pressure, the Browns’ O-line has protected Brissett well. Look for another solid game from Brissett, and the Browns’ rush game to again dominate. If Patterson is compromised, things could go badly for the Falcons. Take the Browns to win. | |||||||
10-02-22 | Vikings -2.5 v. Saints | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
The Vikings and Saints travel to London, each with potentially serious holes in the line-up due to injuries. The Vikings will have Cousins at QB, and he could be the difference maker today. We could see a bounce-back game from Jefferson but Cousins has plenty of targets if the Saints key on JJ as other teams have lately. The Saints have a huge butcher's bill and could be down to Dalton at QB. Even if Winston plays there are huge questions around his performances lately, with a 79 average passer rating and more interceptions than TDs to date. Both top running backs are questionable for Sunday. On defense, neither team has excelled. The Vikings have given up yards but not points, the Saints have been the reverse. The Saints to date have been weaker against the run, and don't pressure the passer effectively. The Vikings O-line has protected Cousins well, and not so for the Saints. I am on the Vikings today. They have fared well in London in previous games. I expect them to win and cover on Sunday. | |||||||
10-01-22 | Troy +5.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
Western Kentucky is 3-1 but it has not been a challenging schedule for the Hilltoppers. They’ve beaten FIU and Hawaii, who are probably the two worst FBS teams in the country, plus a FCS team in Austin Peay. Austin Peay may be the “best” win of the three, even though it was 73-0 last week against FIU.
Yes, WKU probably should have beaten Indiana too, but instead lost that game in overtime. Because of that close call and the 73-0 win last week, I think we’ve got some nice value to go against the Hilltoppers this week.
Troy is 3-0 ATS as an underdog thus far, going against Ole Miss, Appalachian State and Marshall. After losing the way they did against App State (hail mary), it would have been easy for the Trojans to fold the following week against Marshall. But instead they took the game outright, 16-7, as a three-point dog.
The Trojans were by no means dominated by Ole Miss, only getting outgained by 87 yards. There may be a unique advantage for them in this matchup. Backup QB Jarret Doege transferred from WKU right before the start of the season. Doege should certainly be able to share some intel with his new teammates. Defensively, Troy has a clear edge here. They just held Marshall (who upset Notre Dame, remember) to not just 7 points, but 174 total yards. Indiana put up 484 yards on the WKU defense, which also benefited from 10 turnovers in the first two games. Troy’s offense has averaged 437 yards/game the L3 weeks. 10* | |||||||
10-01-22 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -3.5 | Top | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
So there are several reasons to like Mississippi State in this game. Let’s go through them! One is that the situation is really against Texas A&M, who just played a down to the wire game against Arkansas and has #2 Alabama on deck. Mississippi State played Bowling Green last week and won easily, 45-14.
The Alabama game is huge for A&M as they beat the Crimson Tide last season and there has been a lot of chatter coming from both coaches, recruiting-related and otherwise, all offseason.
Last year, Mississippi State also faced A&M in an “Arkansas-Alabama sandwich.” They upset the Aggies 26-22 in College Station as seven-point underdogs with QB Will Rogers (no, not me) completing 46 of 59 passes for 408 yards and three touchdowns. Rogers also did not throw an interception in that game. A&M has been outgained in three straight games with the offense never scoring more than 17 points. Remember last week they needed a defensive score (and a missed field goal) for the win. Even worse for the Aggies offense is that they have lost WR Smith to an injury. I just don’t see how they keep pace with a Mississippi State offense that has scored 39 or more points three times. The Bulldogs also led LSU on the road 13-0 before collapsing in the second half. They desperately will want to avoid an 0-2 start to SEC play. Lay the points at home. 9* | |||||||
10-01-22 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 47 m | Show |
This is a Top 25 matchup but oddsmakers clearly believe #23 Florida State is better than #22 Wake Forest. So do I.
From 2012-18, FSU defeated Wake seven straight times. But they’ve lost the last two head to head meetings, both in Winston-Salem, including 35-14 last year. There have been some “lean” years in Tallahassee - by Seminoles’ standards - but early returns in 2022 have been promising for coach Mike Norvell.
The ‘Noles are 4-0, which is their best start since 2015 . This is also the first game that they’ll play as a ranked team in four years. Both the offense and defense are in the top 35 nationally in scoring. QB Jordan Travis threw for a career-high 321 yards (with just 16 completions!) in last week’s 44-14 win over Boston College.
While FSU remains unbeaten, Wake Forest is off its first loss of the season. It was a wild one for the Demon Deacons, a 51-45 double overtime loss at home to #5 Clemson. Their defense obviously got torched. Coming off a loss like that, WF is “ripe for the picking.” Wake Forest has not won here in Tallahassee since 2008. Their defense is a major concern, not just because of the Clemson game last week. The week before, the Deacons allowed Liberty to 36 points and that honestly could have been a loss as they were outgained and needed Liberty to miss a 2-point try in the final 70 seconds. FSU should roll here. 10* | |||||||
10-01-22 | Phillies v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 4-13 | Win | 102 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Phillies are just 4-6 and holding down a wild card spot. Barely… They were blanked in the Cubs series, scoring just 4 runs in 3 games, but did bounce back on Friday night vs the Nationals. The Nat’s are just 3-7 and haven’t been hitting more than 3 runs a game in 9 of 10 starts. Anibal Sanchez starts for the Nationals. He has put together a surprising light-out 6 weeks at 3-1 and 1.31 ERA in his last 7 games. His opponent Gibson has been very volatile lately with just 1 quality start in September. Otherwise it was a cruel month as he gave up more than a run an inning, with an opposing batting average of .379. The Phillies have a better offense than the Nationals, but no one has hit Sanchez well right lately. Gibson has had some solid starts this year, but is not a very good bet to pitch well right now. Add to that a surprisingly good bullpen of late and the Nationals have a prime spoiler opportunity. A win against the Phillies is not out of the question, but take the Nationals to at least stay close, on the run line at +1 ½. | |||||||
09-30-22 | Marlins +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Things are looking up for the Marlins down the stretch. They are 6-4 L10, are out of the cellar on offense lately and have their ace on the mound today. Alcantara has been terrific lately, pitching for such length that he needs little support from the pen, and allowing just 4 runs over 24 innings in his last three games. | |||||||
09-29-22 | Dolphins +4 v. Bengals | Top | 15-27 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
Thursday night Football week 4 is a tough call, especially considering the question marks around Tua and a number of other Dolphins. Both teams are pass-centric to the extreme. The Dolphins are 31st in rush offense. The Bengals have a solid RB in Mixon but he just hasn’t been used as much as might be expected. The Dolphins’ defense has been top ten vs the run, while the Bengals rush defense has struggled and could be exploited. Tua, if available, has excelled this year and has largely been well protected. The Dolphins have great receivers, and when healthy should compete with any team. Burrow has been pressured and sacked on far too many occasions to date. The Bengals won’t have as easy a time of it this week as they did vs the Jets. I expect Miami to take it to Burrow, and all of that pressure comes at a price. The Dolphins defense came up big on numerous occasions vs the Bills. I expect a big game from them. I am not confident that the Bengals are out of the woods yet or that their offensive line can stand up to Miami. Burrow better have his dancing shoes on. Expect a close game but take the Dolphins to cover. 9*! |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,325 |
Dan Kaiser | $1,247 |
Jesse Schule | $666 |
Mike Lundin | $633 |
Ricky Tran | $555 |
Jim Feist | $402 |
Marc Lawrence | $400 |
Big Al McMordie | $325 |
AAA Sports | $316 |
Tom Macrina | $290 |